# pennsylvania

**DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION** 

**SECRETARY**



# November **19, 2012** 

**Mr.** 

# Shawn **Garvin**

**Regional Administrator** 

**U.S. Environmental**  **Protection Agency,**  **Region III** 

**1650 Arch**  **Street (Mail**  **Code: 3RAOO)** 

**Philadelphia, PA**  **19103-2029**



# 5 **� �**  **n**

**Dear** 

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**ln:**

**Enclosed for**  **your approval**  **is a**  **revision to**  **the Pennsylvania**  **State Implementation**  **Plan (SIP)**  **to**

**update the**  **Motor Vehicle**  **Emissions Budgets**  **(MVEBs) in**  **the "Maintenance**  **Plan and**  **Base Year** 

**Inventory for the**  **Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone**  **Nonattainment Area"**  **(Maintenance Plan). The** 

**Maintenance Plan**  **was developed**  **according to**  **Section 17**  **5A(b) of**  **the Clean**  **Air Act** 

**(42 U.S.C.A.**  **§7505a(b)). This**  **Maintenance Plan**  **revision was**  **developed in**  **accordance with**  **the**

**U.S. Environmental**  **Protection Agency's**  **(EPA) April**  **2012 guidance**  **document titled,**  **Pol icy** 

**Guidance on**  **the Use**  **of MO**  **VES201 0**  **and Subsequent**  **Minor Revisionsfor**  **State Impl**  **ementation**

**Pl an**  **Develo**

**pment, Transportation**  **Conformity, and**  **Other Pu**  **r poses.** 



# The **Pennsylvania Department**  **of Environmental**  **Protection (DEP)**  **requests that**  **the EPA**  **use the** 

**direct final**  **rulemaking process**  **to expedite**  **the approval**  **of this**  **non-controversial SIP**  **revision.**

**The Commonwealth**  **has completed**  **its public**  **participation process**  **for this**  **SIP revision.**  **The**

**DEP scheduled**  **a public**  **hearing to**  **occur on**  **the final**  **day of**  **the 30-day public**  **comment period,** 

**which ended**  **October 18,**  **2012, but**  **no persons**  **expressed interest in**  **presenting testimony**  **or attending.**  **Therefore, DEP cancelled the**  **hearing. The**  **DEP received**  **no comments**  **on the** 

**proposed SIP**  **revision.**

**The following**  **documents are**  **enclosed for**  **your approval:** 

**1. The**  **Maintenance Plan**  **revision, which**  **includes an**  **MVEB for**  **the purposes**  **of**

**transportation confonnity;** 

**2. Certification**  **of public**  **participation activities;** 

**3. A**  **technical support**  **document for**  **the Maintenance**  **Plan revision;**  **and**

**4.** 

# Appendix **C, "Technical**  **Support Document,**  **Mobile Source**  **Highway Emissions** 

**Inventory," which**  **replaces the**  **Appendix C**  **of the**  **same title**  **in the**  **appro ved**  **Maintenance**

**Plan.**

**A paper**  **copy and**  **a disk**  **containing a**  **searchable PDF**  **copy of**  **the revised**  **Maintenance Plan**  **are**

**enclosed. I**  **certify that**  **the electronic**  **file is**  **an exact**  **duplicate of**  **the hard**  **copy.**

**Rachel Carson**  **State Office**  **Building I**  **P.O. Box**  **2063 I**  **Harrisburg, PA**  **17105-2063**

**717.787.2814** 

# (J2J

**Pnnted 011**  **Recycled Paper**  

# �Ct **www.depweb.state.pa.us**

# Mr. 

# Shawn **Garvin**

**- 2** 

**- November**  **19, 2012** 



# On **July 6,**  **2007, the**  **EPA approved**  **the Commonwealth's**  **request for**  **redesignation as**  **attainment**

**for the**  **Lancaster Area**  **and all**  **of the**  **components of**  **the Maintenance**  **Plan, which**  **included**

**MVEBs for**  **2009 and**  **2018. (72**  **FR** 

# 36889)

**As you**  **know, the**  **EPA updated**  **the model**  **that estimates**  **highway vehicle**  **emissions. The**  **new**

**model, the**  **Motor Vehicle**  **Emissions Simulator**  **(MOVES), better**  **estimates emissions**  **from**

**highway vehicles,**  **but MOVES**  **estimates much**  **higher emissions**  **of oxides**  **of nitrogen**  **(NOx),**

**and in**  **some cases,**  **volatile organic**  **compounds (VOC)**  **than the**  **Mobile6.2 model**  **used to**  **derive**

**the MVEBs**  **in the**  **approved Lancaster**  **Maintenance Plan.**  **The Lancaster**  **County Transportation** 

**Coordinating Committee**  **(LCTCC), which**  **is responsible**  **for transportation**  **planning in**  **Lancaster**

**County, uses**  **those approved**  **MVEBs to**  **satisfy transportation**  **conformity requirements.**  **The**

**LCTCC is**  **required to**  **use the**  **most up-to-date**  **version of**  **MOVES for**  **all new**  **transportation**

**planning that**  **begins after**  **March 2,**  **2013. Approval**  **of the**  **updated MVEBs**  **in the** 

**Commonwealth's SIP**  **will allow**  **LCTCC to**  **compare similarly**  **generated emissions used**  **in its** 

**plans and**  **the MVEBs,**  **which will**  **allow transportation**  **projects to**  **go forward**  **in a**  **timely manner.** 

**If you**  **have any**  **questions or**  **need additional**  **information, please**  **contact Joyce**  **E. Epps,**  **Director**

**of the**  **Bureau of**  **Air Quality,**  **by email**  **atjeepps@pa.gov or**  **by telephone**  **at 717.787.9702.** 

**Secretary**

**Enclosures**

# COMMONWEALTH **OF P(NNSYlVANIA** 

**STQ..621 REV.**  **06-2010 INVOICE**  **NO.**



# PUBLICATIONS **AUTHORIZATION AND**  **INVOICE**

**PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION**  **(To** 

# be **completed by**  **agency):**

**TO:(NAMI! ANO.A!lOIiSSClf NliWSPAl'ER�**  

# Harrisburg **Patriot-News Co.** 

**2020 Technology**  **Parkway**

**Suite 300** 

**MechanicsburQ, PA**  **17050** 

# .. **! FEDERAL**  **1.0. NOJSOC.**  **SEC. NO.**  

# ! **23-1304402**

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# FROM: 

# (NAME **AND ADDRESS**  **OF** 

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# Alex **Haas**

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# huro. **PA 171**  **Oil** 

# a

**TYPE OF**  **AD TELEPHONE**  **NO.**



# 717-787-9495

**HEREIMTH IS**  **ENCLOSED COPY**  **FOR PUBLICATION**  **OF ADVERTISEMENT**  **FOR PROPOSALS**  **TO**



# r **EMPLOY** 

# r **PURCHASE** 

# r **CONTRACT** 

# r **SE LL**  

# r: **rx LEGAL**  **NOTICE**

**PUBLISH ADVERTISEMENT**  

# ( **NO, OF**  **TIM MAXIMUM**  **NO. OF**  **LINES DATE** 



# lx 

# Only

**DATES OF**  **INSERTION e FOR**  **AGE**

# � **09/14/2012**

# � **�**

**You, as**  **vendor, are**  **authorized to**  **publish this**  **advertisement in**  **your ne\NSpaper,**  **subject to the**  **terms of**  **this order,**  **as follows:** 

**Advertisement to**  **be published**  **in regular**  **advertising columns,**  **no position**  **specified; caption**  **of two**  **lines and**  **signature to**  **be in** 

**capitals and**  **subject matter**  **and title**  **of officer**  **to be**  **set solid**  **in type**  **regularly used**  **by your**  **ne\NSpaper for**  **public (legal)**  **notice**

**advertising; charge**  **to be**  **made at**  **the rate**  **charged to**  **and paid**  **by commercial**  **advertisers for matter**  **similarly set**  **and occupying** 

**similar space;**  **advertisement to**  **be run**  **in the**  **editions specified**  **above. Vendor**  **agrees that,**  **in the**  **performance of**  **any contract** 

**awarded to**  **it hereunder.**  **said vendor**  **will not**  **discriminate against**  **any employee**  **or other**  **persons on**  **account of**  **race, COIOf,**  **sex,**

**religious creed,**  **ancestry, age**  **or national**  **origin and**  **that the**  **Commonwealth, upon**  **receipt of**  **satisfactory evidence**  **of such**  **dis**

**crimination, shall**  **have the**  **right to**  **cancel said**  **contract. Return**  **this copy**  **at once**  **if you**  **will not**  **accept this**  **advertisement under** 

**the terms**  **set forth.** 

**Return original**  **and two**  **copies (signed by**  **the editor**  **or publisher)**  **to the**  **agency listed**  **above. Proof** 

# of **advertising**

**in the**  **form** 

# of **a tear**  **sheet must**  

# be **stapled** 

# to **original and**  **copies. Original**  **must** 

# be **no tarized.** 



# Commonwealth **to be**  **billed only**  **for actual**  **number of**  **printed lines published.** 



# SAP **FUND** 

# COST **CENTER GENERAL**  **LEOGER ACCOUNT**  **CODE %**  

# 70J.731�() **00** 

# 35;;< **:).71 CJC)&**  **0** 

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# COST **PER LINE**  **TOTAL AMOUNT** 



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**in the**  **editions of**  **said newspaper,**  **in aU**  **respects as**  **ordered and**  **invoiced above;**  **and that**  **the ommonwealth**  **is not**  **charged**

**therefor at**  **a rate**  **higher than**  **is charged**  **any ordinary**  **advertiser for**  **a similar**  **amount of**  **matter occupying**  **similar space**  **and set**  **in a** 

**similar matter,**  **in said**  **newspaper.**

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# , **or** 

# the **designated agent**  

# of **the owner**  **or publisher,** 



# COMMONWEALTH **OF PENNSYLVANIA** 

**Notarial** 

# Seal

**Sherrie L.**  **Owensl Notary**  **Public**

**lower Paxton**  **Twp., Dauphin**  **County**

**My COmmission**  **Expires No\!. 261**  **2015**

**MEMBER, PENNSYLVANIA**  **ASSOCIATION OF**  **NOTARIES**

# The **Patriot-Nev's Co.** 

**2020** 

# Techhology **Pkwy**

**Suite 300** 



# Mechanicsburg, **PA 17050** 



# Inquiries

**-** 

# 717-255-8213

**DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION** 

**RACHEL CARSON**  **STATE OFFICE**  **BUILDING**



# 400 **MARKET STREET** 

**HARRISBURG PA**  

# 17105



# STATEMENT 

# [be 

# patriot **-News**

**Now you**  **know**

**ALL CHARGES**  **ARE NET** 

**AD ORDER**  

# # **DATE EDITION**  **ADDTL. INFO.**  **TYPE OF**  **CHARGE AMOUNT** 



# 233427 **DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL** 

# 0002228920 **09/14/12 REGULAR** 



# 233427 **DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL** 

# 0002228920 **09/14/12 REGULAR**  **BOLD TEXT**  **CHARGE**

**BASIC AD**  **CHARGE** 

# $4.00

**$413.80**

**AFFIDAVIT CHARGE**  

# $5.00



# TOTAL: **$422.80**



# This **is not**  **an invoice.**  **Please do**  **not remit**  **payment fro**  **m this**  **Statement.**

**An invoice**  **will be**  **generated at**  **the end**  **of the**  **month**

**...... Thank**  **you.**

**NOTE This**  **Statement replaces**  **the Order**  **Confirmation which**  **we previously**  **sent with**  **Proofs of**  **Publication**

# The **Patriot-NevIs Co.** 



# 2020 **Technology** 

# Pkwy

**Suite** 

# 300

**Mechanicsburg,** 

# PA **17050**

**Inquiries**



# - **717-255-8213** 

# [be **patriot-News**

**Now you**  **know**

**DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL PRO**  **TECTION**

**RACHEL CARSON**  **STATE OFFICE**  **BUILDING**

**400 MARKET**  **STREET**

**HARRISBURG**

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**THE SUNDAY**  **PATRIOT NEWS** 

**Proof of**  **Publication**

**Under Act**  **No. 587,**  **Approved May**  **16,1929**

**Commonwealth of**  **Pennsylvania, County**  **of Dauphin}**  **ss**

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# . **. .**  **, ,**  **". ,MICHAEL**  **L. KRANCER,** 

**Secretary:** 

# COM **MONWt;AL TH**  **OF PENf** 

**'ll SYLVANIA** 

**NotaTi€l!** 

# Seal

**Sherrie L Owens,**  **Notary Public** 

**lower Paxl;on**  **Twp.} Dauphin**  **County**

**My Commission ExpIres**  **Nov. 26,2015** 

**MEMBER,** 

# PENNSYLVANIA **ASSOCIA110N OF**  **NOTARIES** 

# September **14, 2012** 

# (;JJ **MM()N\M:ALTH OF**  

# PENNSYLVANIA

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# INVOICE **NO.**



# PUBLICATIONS **AU T**  **HORIZATION AND**  **INVOICE**

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# lancaster **New Era** 

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# 1328

**Lancaster,** 

# PA **17608**



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# 0911412012 **FROM: (NAME**  **ANI) ADDReSS**  **OF** 

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**·This affidavit**  **must be**  **made by**  **the e**  **owner or**  **publisher.**

# Michael Krancer Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor



# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

FINAL

Volume I

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on

the MOVES2010a Model

Lancaster Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

November 2012

Bureau of Air Quality

Pen nsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468

717

- 787

- 9495

# This page is intentionally left blank.

# i



# Table of Contents

VOLUME I

1. INTRODUCTION A ND OVERVIEW OF GROUN D

- LEVEL OZONE

................................ ........................ 1

1.1. 8

- H OUR 

# O ZONE 

# N ATIONAL 

# A MBIENT 

# A IR 

# Q UALITY 

# S TANDARDS



# ................................ ................................ 1

1.2. L ANCASTER 

# A REA AND 

# O ZONE 

# SIP R EVISIONS



# ................................ ................................ ........................... 2

1.3. EPA R

EQUIREMENTS FOR 

# D EVELOPING AND 

# R EVISING 

# M AINTENANCE 

# P LANS



# ................................ ............. 4

Table 1: Lancaster Area 2011 Design Values

................................ ................................ ................................ 5

1.4. M AINTENANCE 

# P LAN 

# D EMONSTRATION AND 

# M OTOR 

# V EHICLE 

# E MISSIONS 

# B UDGETS



# ................................ ... 6

Table 2: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated w ith MOVES2010a

................................ ..................... 6

1.5. N ON



# - M OBILE 

# S OURCE 

# I NVENTORY 

# R EVIEW



# ................................ ................................ ................................ 6

Table 3: Revised Lancaster Area NO

x 

# Emissions from 2004 to 2018

................................ ............................... 8

Table 4: Revised Lancaster Area VOC Emissions from 2004 to 2018

................................ .............................. 8

2. SOURCE CATEGORY E MISSIONS

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 9

2.1. P OINT 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E MISSION S



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 9

2.1.1. C ONTROL 

# M

EASURES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 9

2.1.2. G

ROWTH 

# E

STIMATES IN THE 

# L

A NCASTER 

# O ZONE 

# M

AINTENANCE 

# P

LAN



# ................................ ......................... 9

2.1.3. P OINT 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 9

Table 5: 2009 Point Source Emissions

–

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

Maintenance Plan Estimates Versus Actual Emissions

................................ ................................ .................. 10

Table 6: 2018 Point Source Emissions

-

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

Maintenance Plan Estimate Versus Revised 2018 Emissions

................................ ................................ ......... 10

2.2. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E MISSIONS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 11

2.2.1. C ONTROL 

# M

EASURES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 11

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan

................................ ............................ 11

and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 11

Table 8: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory Updates from 2009 to 20 18

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 12

2.2.2. G

ROWTH 

# E

STIMAT ES IN THE 

# L

ANCASTER 

# O ZONE 

# M

AINTENANCE 

# P

LAN



# ................................ ....................... 12

2.2.3. G

ROWTH 

# E

STIMATES IN 

# MARAMA 2011 R EGIONAL 

# M ODELING 

# E FFORT



# ................................ ................... 12

2.2.4. M

ARCELLU

S 

# S HALE 

# E MISSIONS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 13

2.2.5. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# ................................ ................................ ................................ . 13

2.3. N ONROAD 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E MISSIONS



# ................................ ................................ ............................... 13

2.3.1. C ONTROL 

# M

EASURES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 13

2.3.2. G

ROWTH 

# E

STIMATES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 14

2.3.3. N

ONROAD 

# S OURCE 

# C

ATEGORY 

# C O NCLUSION



# ................................ ................................ .......................... 14

2.4. H IGHWAY 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E MISSION S



# ................................ ................................ ................................ 14

2.4.1. C ONTROL 

# M

EASURES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 14

2.4.2. G

ROWTH 

# E

STIMATES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 15

Table 9: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

................................ ................................ ... 15

2.4.3. M OBILE 

# S OURCE 

# C A TEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# ................................ ................................ ............................. 16

3. SAFETY MARGINS

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 16

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMI SSION BUDGET FOR TRA NSPORTATION CONFORMI TY

......................... 16

# ii

5. CONCLUSION

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 17

VOLUME II

1. TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT

– SEE TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR VOLUME II

TABLES

TA BLE 1: LANCASTER AREA 2011 DESIGN VALUES

................................ ................................ .......................... 5

TABLE 2: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIO NS BUDGETS CALCULATED WITH MOVES2010A

................................ ........ 6

TABLE 3: REVISED LANCASTER AREA NOX EMISSIONS FROM 2004 TO 2018

................................ .................... 8

TABLE 4: REVISED LANCASTER AREA VOC EMISSIONS FROM 2004 TO 2018

................................ ..................... 8

TABLE 5: 2009 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS

– MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS ACTUAL

.................... 10

T ABLE 6: 2018 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS

– MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS REVISED 2018

EMISSIONS

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

TABLE 7: COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTENANCE PLAN AND INVENTORY UPDATES

FROM 2002 TO 2009

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 11

TABLE 8: COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTE NANCE PLAN AND INVENTORY UPDATES

FROM 2009 TO 2018

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 12

TABLE 9: REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES 2010A

................................ .......................... 15

TABLE 10: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS

................................ ................................ .......................... 17

APPENDICES



# APPENDIX C: MAINTENANCE PLAN UPDATE FOR THE LANCASTER (LANCASTER COUNTY) EIGHT

- HOUR

MAINTENANCE AREA: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET REVISIONS USING

MOVES2010A

– SEE APPENDIX C TABLE OF CONTENTS

# 1



# 1. Introduction and Overview of Ground

- Level Ozone

Maintaining concentrations of ground

- level ozone below the health

- based 8

- hour ozone national

ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is important because ozone is a serious human health

threat and can cause damage to important food crops, forests, and wildlife.

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse health effects for b oth

healthy people and those with existing conditions including : difficulty breathing, chest pains,

coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. Ozone exposure can exacerbate bronchitis,

heart disease, emphysema, and asthma, and reduce lung capaci ty. Asthma is a significant and

growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can aggravate asthma, causing more asthma

attacks, increased use of medication, more medical treatment and more frequent visits to hospital

emergency clinics. Because ozone pol lution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends

time outdoors in the summer may be affected, particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers

and people exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active

outside during the summertime when ozone levels are highest.

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detrimental pollutants known to affect vegetation,

causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in the United States. Ozone

interferes wi th photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and sunlight to food.

Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other pollutants and harsh weather. It

damages the foliage of trees and other plants, ruining the landscapes of ci ties, parks

, forests, and

recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone concentrations result in reductions in

wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of the Northeast United States

. There is strong

scientific evidence showing that current le vels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in

sensitive species such as soybean, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozone

affected soybeans in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculat ed to fall between $199 million

and $346 mil lion. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national

crop yield lo sses due to ozone in excess of $1 billion annually. One of the key components of

ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in sensitive w aterways, such

as the Chesapeake Bay.

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions

between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO

x 

# ) in the presence of

sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so

ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through September. The

primary sources of man

- made VOCs and NO

x 

# , the ozone precursors, are the evaporation of fuels

and solvents (ga soline and consumer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power

plants and non

- road engines), and industrial processes.



# 1.1

. 8

- Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard s

In July 1997, the EPA established identical primary and secondary 8

- h our ozone NAAQS at a

concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm)

, based on the 3

- year average of the annual fourth

highest daily maximum 8

- hour average ozone concentrations measured in the ambient air at each

monitor ed location

. Implementation of the s tandard s was delayed due to litigation. In June

2004, EPA designated the Lancaster Area, which consists of all of Lancaster County

, as

# 2



# nonattainment for the 1997 8

- hour ozone standard

, based on ambient air quality monitoring data

collected from 2001

- 2003. The Lancaster Area was one of seventeen area s in Pennsylvania

designated as an 8

- hour ozone nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.

The Lancaster Area was initially classified as a “moderate” 8

- hour ozone nonattainment area. I n

July 2004

, Pennsylva nia requested that the EPA reclassify the Lancaster Area to a “marginal” 8

-

hour ozone nonattainment area in accordance with Section 181(a)(4) of the Clean Air Act

(CAA). A state may request reclassification if the design value in the nonattainment area is five

percent greater or five percent less than the level on which the classification is based. The EPA

approved the reclassificat ion request for the Lancaster Area on September 22, 2004 (69 FR

56697)

.

On March 12, 2008 , the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozo ne to 0.075 ppm averaged over 8 hours

to provide even greater protection for children, other at

- risk populations and the environment

against the array of ozone

- induced adverse health and welfare effects. See 73 FR 16436

(March 27, 2008). The EPA had beg un a voluntary reconsideration of the 2008 ozone NAAQS

in January 2010 to set a more protective 8

- hour ozone standard (75 FR 2938), but withdrew that

reconsideration at the request of the President of the United States on September 2, 2011, leaving

the 200 8 ozone standard in place. On May 21, 2012, the EPA published a final rule for the 2008

8

- hour ozone NAAQS, implementing the nonattainment area classification approach, attainment

deadlines, and revoking the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the purpose of transportat ion conformity

(77 FR 30160)

. The EPA will be promulgating an additional implementation rule for the 2008

ozone NAAQS, which is scheduled to be proposed during 2013 , that will address State

Implementation Plan ( SIP ) requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS a nd other issues. The

ozone standard is currently undergoing its statutory five year review and it is anticipated that

EPA will promulgate a n ozone standard between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm in the near future.

Pennsylvania could have additional areas that do n ot meet this anticipated revised ozone

standard.

S tates will need to submit SIP revisions to demonstrate how they will bring the nonattainment

areas into attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS . Nevertheless, the promulgation of the new

ozone standard does n ot affect the need for this revision to the approved maintenance plan for the

Lancaster Area (Lancaster Ozone M aintenance Plan ) under the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.



# 1.2

. Lancaster Area and Ozone SIP Revision s

On September 20, 2006, t he Department submitted a SIP re vision to the EPA requesting

redesignat ion of the Lancaster Area to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS . The Department

concurrently submitted a SIP revision (2006 Lancaster SIP revision) to the EPA that includ ed a

maintenance plan based on the attainment and continued long

- term attainment of the 1997 ozone

NAAQS for the Lancaster Area (Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan)

, the 2002 baseline

inventory, and motor vehicle emission budget s (MVEB s ) to be used for purposes of

transportation conformity. The Departm ent submitted s upplemental inventory material to the

EPA on November 8, 2006. The EPA’s t ransportation c onformity regulation , found at

40 CFR Part 93, Subpart A

, requires that the transportation plan, transportation improvement

program ( TIP ) , and project s not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP must be

consistent with the MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP

. This criterion is satisfied if the state

can demonstrate that emissions of the pollutants or pollutant p recursors for which the area i s in

# 3



# nonattainment or maintenance

, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or

deemed adequate by the EPA

, are less than or equal to the MVEBs established in the applicable

SIP or SIP submission

. The metropo litan planning organization for the area , the Lancaster

County Transportation Coordinating Committee

, ensures that emissions resulting from its TIP

are less than the MVEB s in the SIP by completing periodic conformity determinations, which are

subject to public comment

. The EPA approved all of the components of the 2006 Lancaster SIP

revision, including the MVEB

, on July 6, 2007 (72 FR 36889) and redesignated the Lancaster

Area to attainment

.

The approved MVEB s included in the approved Lancaster Ozone M aintenance Plan were

estimated usi ng the EPA

- approved highway emissions model in effect at that time

, the Highway

Mobile Source Emission Factor Model version 6.2 ( Mobile6.2 )

. The MVEB s in the Lancaster

O zone Maintenance Plan included emission budget s for both NO

x 

# and VOC

. On March 2, 201 0,

the EPA released a new mobile source emissions model called the Motor Vehicles Emissions

Simulator 2010 (MOVES2010)

. The EPA provided a two

- year grace period to transportation

planning organizations

, ending March 2, 2012

, during which the older Mobile6 .2 emissions

model could be used to model emissio ns for transportation projects i n order to meet the

requirements of transportation conformity ( 75 FR 9411 (March 2, 2010) )

. In September 2010,

EPA approved a revised version of the MOVES2010 model

. On Octo ber 13, 2011

, the EPA

proposed a one

- year extension to the two

- year grace period because states and localities need ed

more time to transition to using MOVES2010a and to develop the technical capacity to use

MOVES2010a ( 76 FR 63575 )

. The EPA finalized t he extension on February 27

, 2012

( 77 FR 11394 )

. The extension allow s states and localities to better evaluate whether SIPs and

MVEBs , or transportation plans and TIPs, should be revised for future conformity

determinations. The 1

- year extension provide s a dditional time that may be critical for

nonattainment and maintenance areas to learn and apply MOVES2010a for regional conformity

analyses. Any new transportation conformity analysis started after March 2, 2013

, must use the

mos t up

- to

- date version of MOVE S.

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the model and its associated guidance in April 2012

. EPA considers b oth MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b to be minor revisions to MOVES2010

that do not significantly affect the results of modeling criteria pollutant estim ates for highway

vehicles . References to “MOVES” in the remainder of this document relate to all of the

approved versions of the model. The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this SIP revision

was already developed significantly using MOVES 2010a

. B y the time that version 2010b was

issued

, using MOVES201 0b would have been impractical.

Compared to Mobile6.2, t he MOVES model estimates higher NO

x 

# emis sions an d in some areas

higher VOC emissions being produced by highway vehicles , depending on the model ’ s inputs

. Emissions estimated using MOVES will always be greater for transportation planning than the

emissions accounted for in the MVEBs, which were estimated using Mobile6 .2

. As a result,

c omparing emissions from the MOVES model to the MVEB included i n approved maintenance

plan would not allow local and regional transportation planning agencies to meet the

requirements of transportation conformity ; the emissions budget in the maintenance plan would

be exceed ed and transportation planning c ould be adver sely affected. This is why the

# 4



# Department is updating the MVEB s for the Lancaster Area using the newer EPA

- approved

emissions model , MOVES2010a

.

It is important to mention that higher emission estimates calculated by MOVES 2010a do not

mean that emission s from vehicles actually increased. The MOVES m odel better estimates

emissions that are already being produced by vehicles. Consequently, the ability of the area to

maintain the standard will not be affected by using estimates produced by the new model.



# 1.3

. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans

Th e 2006 Lancaster SIP revision redesignation request is consistent with the September 4, 1992

, EPA memorandum written by John Calcagni, Director , Air Quality Management Division,

entitled

, Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment

. For the

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan , t he Department produced an emissions inventory for NO

x 

# , VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment year, which included ambient air

quality monitoring data that showed emissions that met t he 1997 ozone NAAQS in the Lancaster

Area. The inventory was based on a “ typical summer day

, ” as required by the EPA. The

Department developed an emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrate d t hat the area would

meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS for a 10

- year period following redesignation of the area to

attainmen t. The emissions inventory for 2018, a maintenance year

, showed that emissions of

NO

x 

# , VOC, and CO in the Lanc aster Area would not exceed emi ss ions that occurred in 2004.

The maintenance year is a year at least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate

that emissions over a 10

- year period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the standard

. A state does this by showing that emissions in the maintenance year are less than emissions in

the attainment year

.

An emissions inventory in the 2006 Lancaster SIP revision showed that emissions in 2009, the

interim year, did not exceed emissions in 2004, the attainment year. The 2 009 and 2018

inventories both considered future growth projected from a 2002 baseline year , and included

emission reductions from permanent and enforceable control measures

.

Th is SIP revision updates highway emissions estimates using the newer MOVES 2010a m odel

. The Department need not update emissions estimates for area and nonroad sources for several

reasons

. For one, the growth assumptions for emissions from area and nonroad sources in the

2006 Lancaster SIP revision for the year 2009 were greater than the documented growth that

occurred from 2002 to 2009

. Additionally, new er, updated emission growth projections to 2018

for area and nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the

2006 Lancaster SIP revision

. Company

- r eported point source emissions are used in this SIP

revision to revise the projected 2009 emissions in the 2006 Lancaster SIP revision . Also in this

SIP revision

, linearly interpolated 2018 point source emission estimate s derived from the Mid

Atlantic Reg ional Air Management Association ( MARAMA ) 2011 effort for modeling ambient

particulate matter concentrations are used to revise 2018 projected emissions in the Lancaster

Ozone M aintenance Plan

.

Recent ambient air quality monitoring results for the Lancaste r Area demonstrate continued

attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0. 08 parts per m illion , with rounding 8 4 parts per

billion )

, as shown in Table 1

.

# 5 

# Table 1 : Lancaster Area 2011 Design Value s

Monitor 200 9

4 th



# highest 20 10

4 th



# highest 201 1

4 th



# highest 3

- Year

Average

or Design

Value 1



# Lancaster

42

- 071

- 0007 69 ppb 82 ppb 78 ppb 7 6 ppb

Lancaster Downwind

42

- 071

- 0012 66 ppb 82 ppb 85 ppb 7 7 ppb

1 

# A “ design value ” is the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8

- hour ozone concentration

, averaged over three ye ars.



# The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled

, Policy Guidance

on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation Plan

Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes

, (MOVES2010 gui dance) EPA

420

- B

- 12

- 010

, April 2012

. This guidance describes requirements f or SIP revisions. For

maintenance demonstrations, areas can have a revised mot or vehicle emissions inventory and

b udget using MOVES without revising emissions for other sectors in cluded in the applicable SIP

or completing additional modeling if:

The SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when the previous motor vehicle

emissions inventories are replaced with inventories generated by MOVES2010a; and,

The state can document th at growth and control strategy assumptions for non

- motor

vehicle sources continue to be valid and minor updates do not change the overall

conclusions of the SIP.

The EPA further states that if both of the criteria are met, the state can simply re

- submit th e

original maintenance plan with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories

, using the most

current version of the MOVES model. However, if either criterion is not met, the emissions

categories in the maintenance plan that have changed must be brough t up to date.

Since one of the criteria listed above is not met for point source emissions , t h is SIP revision

includes information addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES2010 policy

guidance , listed here:

Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS approved maintenance plans continue to

meet applicable requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inv entories

, as

calculated by the most recently approved MOVES model

, and recalculation of the

attainment year, interim year and maintenance year MVEBs with the latest planning

assumptions, including documentation of the updated assumptions;

Review of the point , area, and nonroad emissions invento r ies for the interim year and

maintenance year to determine if growth and control strategy assum pt ions have changed

and

, if so, develop ment of an a nalysis to determine if these changes a ffect the conclusion

# 6



# of the maintenance plan that air quality will remain compliant with the 1997 ozone

NAAQS; and

A ssessment to confirm excess emissions exist and the quantification of these excess

emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the MVEB s.



# 1.4

. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Table 2 shows the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NO

x 

# and VOC MVEB s calculated using the

latest planning assumptions for the Lancaster Area using MOVES2010a. Assumptions used in

the MOVES2010a modeling , including model inputs, growth assumptions and modeling

methodology

, are provided in Appendix C

. Highway vehicle emissions show a clear

, downward

t rend.

Table 2 : Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a

Year NO

x



# Emissions

(tons/day) VOC

Emissions

(tons/day)

2004 Attainment Year 42. 10 16. 41

2009 Modeled Emissions 33.18 14.29

Conformity Portion of

Safety Margins 1 

# 2 .00 0 .00

2009 In terim Year Budget 35.18 14 .29

2018 Modeled Emissions 18.57 8.14

Conformity Portion of

Safety Margins 2 .00 2 .00

2018 Maintenance Year

Budgets 20.57 10 .14



# 1.5

. Non

- Mobile Source Inventory Review

T he EPA states

, in its MOVES2010 guidance

, that revisions to existing SIPs and budgets must

continue to meet applicable requirements under the Clean Air Act

. A maintenance plan revised

to take into account new emission estima tes due to an update in the highway model must

demonstrate that attainment of the standa rd continues

, even with updated control measures and

1 

# A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given

p ollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further

progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR 

# § 93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for

use by the Metropolitan Planning Organization ( MPO ) or Department of Transportation ( DOT ) as a safety margin to

be used for transportation projects. See 40 CFR 

# § 93.124(a) for application of a safety margin

.

# 7



# growth estimates. T he basis for this SIP revision includes i ncreases in the maintenance plan’s

NO

x 

# and VOC emission estimates for the attainment, interim and maintenance year s result ing

from revising hi ghway emissions using MOVES instead of the Mobile6.2 model

, and account ing

for emissions of point, area, and nonroad sources using the latest planning assumptions and

growth estimates

. Total emissions in the years 2009 and 2018 cannot exceed the emissions in

the 2004 attainment year inventory

. The Department concludes that the Lancaster Area will

continue to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS because total emissions of NO

x 

# and VOC in the interim year and maintenance year will be less than the 2004 attainment year

inventory for those two pollutants. Developing a revised highway inventory for carbon

monoxide (CO) is unnecessary for this SIP revision because CO emissions decrease using

MOVES in place of the Mobile6 .2 model

.

Growth and control str ategy assumptions have changed for all of the emission cat egories since

the Lancaster O zone Maintenance Plan was approved. The changes in these assumptions have

generally decreased forecasted emissions in future years. A severe economic recession occurre d

since the maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed

, falling short of

the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. More controls of source

categories have been implemented at both the federal and state l evel. A rea and nonroad NO

x 

# and

VOC emission inventories are not being revised for the interim and maintenance year in this SIP

revision

. The p oint source emission inventory is being updated. T he Department compared

updated growth estimates with growth a ssumptions and growth estimates in the Lancaster Ozone

M aintenance P lan

. That analysis is included below. More detailed information can be found in

Volume II : Technical Support Document.

Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Commonwealth will requi re the Department to update

growth and strategy assumptions of non

- motor vehicle sources. A number of areas in the

Commonwealth are home to newly built point sources

, such as electric generating units ( EGUs )

. Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale g as development

, which has increased area source

emissions. The EPA developed a r ule in 2011 to limit the transport of NO

x 

# and sulfur dioxide

, which could change projected emissions of point sources. See, 76 FR 48208 (Aug. 8, 2011) , and

later revisions. Some owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and

regulatory developments by closing coal

- fired electric generation units or by switching fuels (to

natural gas) at their facilities. The Department has considered these developments and

c oncluded that these changes do not apply to the Lancaster Area.

Table s 3 and 4 show that emissions in the future interim and maintenance years will not exceed

overall emissions from all source s in 2004, the attainment year , even though highway emissions

are greater in the Lancaster Area when modeled by MOVES than when the emissions were

estimated by Mobile6.2 in the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan

. Actual emissio ns for the

2009 point sources and updated 2018 projected point source emissions were include d in the SIP

revision inventory. P rojected area and nonroad category emissions from the Lancaster Ozone

M aintenance P lan are used for 2009 and 2018 in this SIP revision . P rojected area and nonroad

sources do not need to be updated because emissions from these categories have not increased

appreciably since the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan was submitted to EPA

. Attainment of

the 1997 ozone standard is maintained by showing revised actual and projected growth for 2009

and 2018 do es not increase overall future emissions of the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan

. Th is SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance

# 8



# P lan forecast greater growth than what actu ally occurred or will occur in the major source

category segmen ts.

A small portion of the difference between attainment and maintenance emissions has been set

aside as a transportation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in

highway vehicles (See Table 2). The highway vehicle emissions reflect inclusion of that safety

margin.

Table 3 : Revised Lancaster Area NO

x 

# Emissions from 2004 to 2018

NO

x 

# in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total

2004 3. 89 2.6 0 13.20 42. 10 61.79

2009 3. 20 2.8 0 10.80 3 3 .18 49.98

Δ(2004

- 2009)

- 0.7 9 0.2 0

- 2.40

- 8 .92

- 11. 9 1

2018 3.60 2.9 0 6.80 18 .57 31.87

Δ( 2004

- 2018 )

- 0.29 0.3 0

- 6.40

- 2 3 .53

- 29.92

Table 4 : Revised Lancaster Area VOC Emissions from 2004 to 2018

VOC in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total

2004 8.10 24.4 0 17.30 16.41 66.21

2009 5.50 24.2 0 15.00 14.29 58

. 99

Δ(2004

- 2009)

- 2.6 0

- 0.2 0

- 2.30

- 2.12

- 7. 22

2018 7.74 27.2 0 11.90 8 .14 5 4.98

Δ(2004

- 2018)

- 0.36 2.80

- 5.40

- 8 .27

- 11.23

# 9



# 2. Source Category Emissions

2. 1

. Point Source Category Emission s

2.1 .1

. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# A t the time of the dev elopment of the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan , many large sources

were affected by the requirements of the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

. Pennsylvania

implemented NO

x 

# control programs, including implementation of CAIR, which control NO

x 

# from large industrial boilers

, internal combustion engines, electric generating units

, and cement

kilns. None of the sources subject to these regulations are located in the Lancaster Area.

2.1 .2

. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN THE 

# L ANCASTER 

# O ZONE 

# M AINTENANCE 

# P LAN



# Two annual point source inventories using historical emissions data reported to the D epartment

by point source facilities were included in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan. The

Department developed an emissions inventory of point sources for calendar year s 2002 and

200 4 . The 2002 point source emissions inventory represents a time when the Lancaster Area did

not meet the 1997 ozone NAAQ S . The 2004 point source inventory showed emissions that

occurred during 2004, the attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAA QS

.

Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the

District of Columbia

, were prepared for MARAMA by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc.

(MACTEC). Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so that states c ould use the

point source inventories in their SIPs. Emission projections were pr epared for years 2009 and

2018.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future, the point source inventory is divided into

two subsectors

– the EGU sector and the no n

- EGU sector. Different projection methods were

used for those two sectors. For the EGU sector, the Mid

- Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union

( MANE

- VU ) effort used the Integrating Planning Model (IPM) to project future electric

generation

, as well as to ca lculate the impact of control progra ms on future emission levels. As

stated above, t he Lancaster Area has no EGU emission sources. For the non

- EGU sector, growth

factors were developed by using the EPA’s Economic Growth Analysis System Version 5.0

(EGAS 5.0)

. The U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace

default values in EGAS 5.0 . Also, state

- supplied population, employment, and other emission

projection data were used to update and enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values.

2 .1

. 3

. P OINT 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# Projected NO

x 

# and VOC emissions for 2009 in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan are being

revised with actual emissions for point sources in 2009

, because the actual emission s are readily

available and allow easy com parison between the projected emissions in the maintenance plan

and the actual emissions

. T he Department assessed point source emissions by comparing the

actual emissions inventory data submitted to the Department by owners of point sources for 2009

to th e e stimated 2009 NO

x 

# emissions from point sources in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance

Plan . T he Lancaster O zone Maintenance Plan overestimated point source emissions for 2009

. Table 5 shows that t he projected point source emissions of NO

x 

# in the maintenan ce plan were 0.9

tons per day more than a ctual 2009 poi nt source emissions and the projected p oint source

# 10



# emissions of VOC in the maintenance plan we re 3.2 tons per day more than actual 2009 point

source emissions . Act ual emission s of NO

x 

# and VOC declined significant ly from 2004 to 2009

, even when compared to the slow growth in emissions forecasted in the Lancaster O zone

Maintenance Plan

.

Table 5 : 2009 Point Source Emissions

–

Maintenance Plan Estimates V ersus Actual Emissions

2009 Emissions NO

x 

# (to ns/day) VOC

(tons/day)

Maintenance Plan

Estimate 4.1 8.7

Actual 3.2 5.5

The Department will revise the 2018 inventory in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan by

using emission s from the inventory developed by MARAMA. Because the updated inventory

prod uced by MARAMA use s different years for the baseline and projected inventories

, and

different surrogates to estimate growth than what was used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance

Plan , comparison between growth factors used to produce the two inventories is difficult

. The

MARAMA projected inventory estim ated emissions for the years 201 7 and 2020 from a baseline

2007 emissions inventory . In order to obtain emission estimates for the 2018 maintenance year,

a straight line interpolation between 200 7 and 2020 was used. P rojected NO

x 

# and VOC

emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA estimates are still well below the 2018 projected

emissi ons in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan

, as shown in Table 6, and thus show that

projected emissions in 2018 will fall below the 2004 ( attainment year ) emission levels

.

Table 6 : 2018 Point Source Emissions

-

Maintenance Plan Estimate V ersus Revised 2018 Emissions

2018 Emissions NO

x 

# (tons/day) VOC

(tons/day)

2018 Maintenance Plan

Estimate 4.6 11.0

2018 Revised Estimate

(M ARAMA Inventory) 3.6 7.7

# 11



# 2.2

. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E

MISSIONS



# 2.2 .1

. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# The area sector includes, but is not limited to, such diverse emissions source categories as :

surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent use; residential heating; open burning ; traffic

line painting; and landfill gases. Emissions are produced from a wide number of sources for

which actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. The Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan relied upon many different types of socioeconomic indicators that served as

surrogates to actual sales data to estimate emissions from the area source sector when actual

sales data was not available. Population, employment, fuel use and housing data are some of the

surrogates used to estimate emissions. Methodologies for estimating some emissions from some

area sources were updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan but

, because the emissions change similarly for the attainment, interim a nd

maintenance year s , the changes will not result in a significant difference between the attainment

year’s emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions

. As can be seen from Table 7

, with the

exception of commercial boilers using natural gas

, e missions would decrease from area sour ces

, since actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 and project ed growth rates from 2009 to 2018 are

lower or nearly the same when compared to the growth rat es used in the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan

. The metrics presented i n Table 7 serve as growth sur rogates for most source

classification codes (SCCs) in the area source category in the mainte nance plan

, which account

for a large majority of the emissions in the area source inventory.

Table 7 : Comparison of Growt h F actors Used in Maintenance Plan

and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009

Metric Actual

Growth

(Census Data) Maintenanc e

Plan

Surrogate

Estimates

(2006)

2009 Population * 1.0621 1.0918

2009 Total Employment 0.9868 1.1321

2009 Commercial Boilers Natural

Gas 1. 0456 1.0106

2009 Commercial Boilers, Distillate 0.9807 1.0731

2009 Commercial Boilers, Coal 0.7488 1.0481

*Growth for the year 2009 is computed from 2002 to 2009.

# 12 

# Table 8: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan

and Inventory Updates from 2009 to 201 8

Metric Revised

Growth

from

MARAMA

Inventory

(2009

- 2018) * Maintenance

Plan Growth

(2009

- 2018) *

Population 1.0509 1.1081

Employees 1.0113 1.1499

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9799 0.9988

Anthracite, Commercial 1.0055 0.9865

All Combus ter Types, Distillate Oil,

Residential 0.9615 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0154 1.0521

Combustor Types, Natural Gas,

Residential 1.0034 1.0181

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018. Due to different

time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more recent inventory data,

growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method allows for a direct comparison.



# 2.2 .2

. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN THE 

# L ANCASTER 

# O ZONE 

# M AINTENANCE 

# P LAN



# Area source emission growth factors were developed by using the default configuration in EGAS

5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel

use projections. In this SIP revision, t he AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were used to

replace AEO2004 forecasts. State

- supp lied population and employment data were used to

replace default data

, when the state

- specific data was available. Growth estimates were

represented by growth factors for each area SCC for each county.

County

- level population data for 2000

, and projections for 2010 and 2020 from the Pennsylvania

State Data Center

, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/

, were provided to derive growth factors. This data

were interpolated to obtain growth factors for projecting emis sions from 2002 to 2009 for SCCs

that are population based. General employment data for 21 counties or areas for 2000

, and

projections to 2010 and 2020

, were used. This da ta were also interpolated to estimate growth

fact ors for projecting from 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area source categories. For all other

area source categories, AEO2005 forecasts were used for projecting emissions from area source

fuel combustion , when available. If AEO2005 forecasts are not availa ble, EGAS 5.0 default

factors were used

.

2.2 .3

. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN 

# MARAMA 2011 R EGIONA L 

# M ODELING 

# E FFOR T



# The development of g rowth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional model ing effort f or area

sources used one or a combination of the following as surrogate s for growth: AEO2010

, population data

, or employment data. A direct comparison can not be made between the growth

# 13



# factors based on AEO2005 or population in the original maintenance plan and this SIP revision

which uses growth factors from MARAMA’s 2011 re gional modeling effort

. As years pass,

different inventory methodologies are developed. This SIP revision uses the best possible

method to compare emissions inventories that use differing methodologies. (See Volume II :

T echnical Support Document). T he MARAMA 2011 regional modeling e ffort d eveloped growth

factors for most SCCs us ing AEO2010 or county level population. Employment data was

derived from N orth A merican I ndustry C lassification S ystem to the state level. Since

employment data to the county l evel was not available from the MARAMA 2011 modeling , s tate

employment data was applied for all SCCs and counties in this SIP revision

. The recession

reduced e mployment which fell short of the pr ojections in the maintenance plan for the year

2009 . Starti ng from depressed employment levels in 2009, it is unlikely that employment

projections in the maintenance plan will be exceeded in reality in 2018

, even if employment

growth recovers to normal levels in the near future

. R evised growt h estimates show this to be

the likely case

.

2.2 .4

. M ARCELLUS 

# S HALE 

# E MISSIONS



# Significant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale n a tural g as in some

Pennsylvania c ounties has occurred since the 2006 Lancaster Area Ozone Maintenance Plan was

submitted to the EPA by the Department. Area source emissions result from the placement of

drilling equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The Lancaster Area has not

experienced any Marcellus Shale development and is not expected to experience any of this

develo pment in the future

.

2.2 .5

. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# The Department demonstrated (See Table 8) that it is reasonable to assume that emissions

growth for area sources that has and is occurring is less than the growth forecasted in the

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan for both NO

x 

# and VOC for maintenance years 2009 and

2018. The Department compared growth estimate s used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance

Plan and the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort. Emissions of NO

x 

# and VOC from the

area source sector have not increased as a result of any new activity or update in methodology, or

by using a new data source to estimate emissions. Therefore, no revisions to the area source

sector f or NO

x 

# or VOC emissions are necessary.



# 2.3

. Nonroad Source Categ ory Emissions

2.3 .1

. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# The nonroad category contains many different types of equipment. The Department used

NONROAD2005 for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan

. All versions of t he EPA’s

NONROAD M odel estimate emissions for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad

engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care,

farming

, and industr ial applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities

, including aircraft, locomotive, a nd commercia l marine vessel activities

, are not estimated in the

NONROAD M odel but are in the nonroad category . In the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan

, the NONROAD2 005 model was used to estimate emissions of nonroad vehicles and engines

. The model went through one major revision since it was used for the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan

. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new version of

# 14



# the model incorporate s two reduction strategies that affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad

s ector:

Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine

engines ( See Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and

Marine Compression

- Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder

, 73 FR 25098 , May 6, 2008 ); and

The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule

( See Control of Emissions From Nonroad Spark

- Ignition Engines and Equipment

, 73 FR 59034 , October 8, 2008 ).

For the Lancas ter Ozone Maintenance Plan , t he Department modified files in the NONROAD

M odel

, when state specific data was available

, that affect emission categories such as residential

lawn and garden and recreational marine vessels

.

2.3 .2

. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES



# Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan as a result of additional controls mentioned above

, and other tier level controls

that have been phased in since 2004 for engin es used in the nonroad sector

. The fleet turnover

that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer

equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower

emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s

, and will continue to do so for the next 10

years

. Emission reduction s occurred across all segments of the nonroad category

, including

construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment.

Furthermore, the recession significa ntly lowered construction, railroad, aircraft, and industrial

activity, and

, consequently

, lowered emissions. Even if growth returns to pre

- recession levels,

overall growth will likely remain lower than what was predicted in the maintenance plan up to

the 2018 maintenance year.

2.3 .3

. N ONROAD 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# The Department demonstrated that it is reasonable to assume that emissions growth for nonroad

sources that has and is occurring is less than the growth forecasted in the Lancaster Ozone

Ma intenance Plan for both NO

x 

# and VOC for maintenance years 2009 and 2018. The

Department compared growth estimates between what was used in NONROAD2005 and

NONROAD2008 a, and took into account fleet turnover and the effects of the recession

. Emissions of N O

x 

# and VOC from the nonroad source sector have not increased as a result of any

new activity or update in methodology . Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for

NO

x 

# or VOC emissions are necessary.



# 2.4

. Highway Source Category Emission s

2.4. 1

. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# Assumptions for vehicle emissions standards have not changed significantly from when the

Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan was submitted to EPA

. In 2008, Pennsylvania began

implementation of California emission standards

, which are inco rporated by reference in

# 15



# Pennsylvania regulations, for passenger cars, light

- duty trucks, and diesel

- powered heavy

- duty

trucks. In January 2012

, t he California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved significant

revisions to its regulations for criteria pollu tant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger

cars, light

- duty trucks and medium

- duty vehicles. The amendments, referred to as LEV III, will

become effective in model year 2015 for criteria pollutants and in model year 2017 for

greenhouse gases, once t he amendments are approved by California’s Office of Administrative

Law (OAL) . Once the CARB LEV III amendments are approved by the California OAL, the

requirements will be automatically incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean

Vehicles Program, to the extent the amendments apply to Pennsylvania’s program. EPA is

preparing to propose revisions to its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas

emissions from on

- road vehicles, but has not yet published a proposed rulemaking. W hen EPA

publishes a proposed rulemaking relating to new vehicle emission standards, the proposed rule

will be analyzed as to its effect on future year emission estimate s of NO

x 

# or VOC.

2.4.2

. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES



# Overall e missions from highway vehicles will co ntinue to decrease as new vehicles take the

place of older vehicle s during normal fleet turnover. Fleet turnover is the greatest driver in

lowering emissions from highway vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the

Lancaster Ozone Maint enance Plan . This is

, in part

, a result of the recent recession and its

lingering effects

. Other factors have some impact on emissions from the highway source

category such as ch anges in fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, and the fleet mix of vehicles

. The

fleet age is also increasing as people operate their vehicles for a longer period of time. This will

reduce the rate of fleet turnover and the reductions expected in emissions. It is difficult to

compare vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in Pennsylvania b etween the Lancaster O zone

Maintenance Plan and this SIP revision because the method for estimating VMT has changed.

Nationally, there was a slight decline in VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles

in Pennsylvania that are light

- duty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers are purchasing more

passenger cars than light

- duty trucks. Passenger cars tend to have lower emissions.

Both VOC and NO

x 

# emission estimates were developed using MOVES2010a and the latest

planning assumptions. Emissions have been es timated for the 2004 attainment year, as well as

the 2009 and 2018 maintenance years

. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the orig inal

maintenance plan have been included in Table 9 to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

Table 9 : Revised M otor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC 19.75 14.3 3 7.77 16.4 1 14.29 8.1 4

NO

x 

# 32.3 3 22.3 2 8.99 42.1 0 33.18 18.57



# Table 9 shows the MOVES model estim ates NO

x 

# emissions in 2009 and NO

x 

# and VOC

emissions in 2018 that exceed the M OBILE6.2

- derived emissions in the Lancaster O zone

Maintenance Plan . This would cause transportation planning emissions estimates using MOVES

to exceed the MVEBs. The updated NO

x 

# and VOC MVEBs provided in Table 2 will help ensure

that the Lancaster Area can demonstrate transportation conformity using MOVES2010a

, once

# 16



# the conformity grace period expires

, while the emissions estimates still demonstrate that the

Lancaster Area demon strates attainment with the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.

2.4.3

. M OBILE 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# The SIP revision includes revise d MVEBs for Lancaster County using updated highway vehicle

emissions estimates derived from MOVES

. Appendix C of this SIP revision repla ces the

corresponding sections of the original Appendix C in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan

. Appendix C of this SIP revision describes the highway modeling metho dology necessary to

produce accurate emission estimates from the MOVES model

.



# 3. Safety Margins

Tables 3 and 4 show that the emissions in the maintenance year s , even when using conservative

estimates in the Lancaster O zone Maintenance Plan

, for point, area and nonroad sectors, provide

a significant safety margin for continued maintenance.

Th erefore, a portion of those safety margins is being allocated to transportation projects to help

ensure that any future planning assumption updates will not negatively impact the area’s ability

to demonstrate transportation conformity. Adequate safety mar gins will also defer the need for

future SIP revisions , where the purpose of the SIP revision is only to update numbers and not to

document any actual emissions reductions to the atmosphere.

To help ensure that the transportation conformity process is not needlessly delayed, a 2.0 ton / day

safet y margin for NO

x 

# has been applied to the MVEB s in 2009 and a 2.0 ton/day safet y margin

for NO

x 

# and VOC has been applied to the MVEB s in 2018. All indication s are that the 2009 and

2018 emission estimates made for poi nt, area and nonroad sources in the Lancaster Ozone

M aintenance P lan are higher than any actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates for 2018

in this SIP revision

. Table 2 quantitatively shows that these safety margins will continue to

allow the area to remain well below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventory cap, thereby

ensuring that future air quality will continue to meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.



# 4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budget f or Transportation Conformity

The Department proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that

transportation emissions do not impede clea n air goals for almost the next decade . The

information in Table 10 , once EPA approves this SIP revision for the purposes of transportation

conformity, will e stablish MVEBs for Lancaster County.

# 17 

# Table 10: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Calendar Year Pollutant

NO

x 

# VOC

2009 31,914.8 kilograms/summer day

35.18 tons/summer day 12,963.7 kilograms/summer day

14.29 tons/summer day



# 2018 18,660.8 kilograms/s ummer day

20.57 tons/summer day 9,198.9 kilograms/summer day

10.14 tons/summer day



# 5

. Conclusion

By examining actual and projected emissions, in creased controls for all emissions categories , and

evidence that actual emissions growth for point source, are a source, and nonroad source

categories has been less than the projected emissions growth in the approved Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan

, the Department has shown that the conclusion in the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan that the Lancaster Area will c ontinue to maintain attainment of the 1997 ozone

NAAQS remains valid

, even after updating the highway emissions using the new EPA

- approved

MOVES model. Updating NO

x 

# or VOC emissions in the MVEB s will not negatively affect the

Lancaster Area’s ability to m aintain attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS

. In this revision, the

Department has updated emissions of NOx and VOC that were included in the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan for point and highway sources. Emissions of area and nonroad sources were

not upd ated from the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan because it was shown that growth in

emissions for those sources decreased or were unaffected.

# Michael Krancer Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor



# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

FINAL

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on

the MOVES2010a Model

Lancaster Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

November 20 12

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468

717

- 787

- 9495

# [ This page intentionally left blank. ]

# i



# Contents

I ntroduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 1

Point Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 1

Point Source Emissions for 2009

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 2

Point Source Category 2018 Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ 7

Area Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 17

Area Source Category 2009 Emissions

................................ ................................ ............................... 17

Area Source Category 2018 Emissions

................................ ................................ ............................... 18

Nonroad Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 20

Highway Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 21



# Tables

Table 1 : Point Source Emissions for 2009

- SIP Estimated versus Actual 2

Table 2 : Actual 2009 Annual NOx and VOC P oint Source Inventory for the

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 2

Table 3 : Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018 8

Table 4 : Revised Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non

- EGU

Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 baseline and 2020 projected inventories) 8

Table 5 : MARAMA 2018 Annua l Baseline and Projected NOx Point Source Inventories

for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 9

Table 6 : MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected VOC Point Source Inventories for t he

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 13

Table 7 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to

Forecasted Projected Growth in the Lancaster A rea Maintenance Plan (2002

- 2009) 17

Table 8 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to

the Forecasted Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2009

- 2018) 19

Table 9 : R evised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 21

# ii 

# [ This page intentionally left blank. ]

# 1



# Introduction

This Technical Support Document provides detailed information on the categories o f point, area,

nonroad, and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NO

x 

# ) and volatile organic compounds

(VOC) emission e stimates and assumptions. D ata shown in this document were used in the State

Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Bas e Yea r Inventory

– L ancaster Eight

Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

, which is he reafter referred to as the Lancaste r Ozone

Maintenance Plan . Other data and assumption s outlined in the Technical Support Document are

also used in this State Implementation Plan (SIP ) revision to the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance

Plan that is entitled, “ State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle

Emission Budget Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model

– Lancaster Eight

- Hour Ozone

Maintenance Area ”, which is hereafter r eferred to as the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan

revision

. The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan revision demonstrates that replacing highway

emissions estimates using the MOVES Model instead of the Mobile6 Model to generate

emissions estimates will not cause emissions from all sources in the maintenance year s to exceed

all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical Support Document will describe how

emission estima tes and emission growth rates that we re used in both the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan and the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan revision were developed for all

source categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway)

.



# Point Source Category Emissions

Point sources include d emissions from large commercial, institutional, and industrial fac ilities,

such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and large heating and

electric generating units (EGUs). Emission projections used in the Lancaster Ozone

Maintenance Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 stat es, including

Pennsylvania, and the Distri ct of Columbia

, for the Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management

Association (MARAMA) by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future year projections were

developed by MACTEC so that states could use the projections as inven tories in their SIPs.

Estimates were prepared for years 2009 and 2018

, and took into consideration growth in

economic activity and additional control s

.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the states ’ ozone maintenance

plan s

, the point source inventory of emissions is divided into two subsectors

– the EGU sector

and the non

- EGU sector. Different projection methods are used for those two sectors. The

Lancaster Area has no EGU emission sources. The Lancaster Area contains man y non

- EGU

point sources. For the non

- EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using The United

States Environmental Protection Agency’s ( EPA ) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS)

Version 5.0. U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts wer e used to replace default

values for combustion sources in EGAS 5.0 . Also, state

- supplied population, employment, and

othe r emission projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not exist or if the state

supplied data was deemed better than val ues given by EGAS 5.0.

# 2



# Point Source Emissions for 2009

Table 1 gives tota ls of NO

x 

# and VOC emissions for both 2009 projected emissions in the

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 Lancaster Area emissions reported to the

Department after th e Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed

. 1 

# Table 1 demonstrates

that the assumptions that point source emissions in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan for

2009 were overestimated for both NO

x 

# and VOC. Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NO

x 

# and VOC

e missions from the individual facilities in the Lancaster Area. The annual emissions were

divided by 365 days in a year to obtain daily emission s

.

Actual Emissions for 2009

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009

- SIP Estimated V ersus Actual

Emission s for 2009 NO

x 

# (tons/day) VOC

(tons/day)

Emissions in Maintenance Plan 4.1 8.7

Actual Emissions (actual

reported annual emissions in

Table 2 divided by 365 days) 3.2 5.5

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NO

x 

# and VOC Point Source Inventory for the

Lanca ster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# 420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD

INC/MILL 119.8 182.2

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE

LLC/EPHRATA --- 4.1

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA

GRINNELL 12.4 27.2

420710082 AQUATIC CO/W DONEGAL

TWP 1.0 7.3

1 

# Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 2009

# 3 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# 420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/FLOOR PLT 9.4 67.9

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT 67.0 157.4

420710509 B & S

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE --- - 22.5

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & T ANK

CO/RAPHO ---- 12.0

420710104 BIRD IN HAND

WOODWORKS/E HEMPFIELD ---- 2.6

420710084 BOLLMAN HAT CO/MAIN ST

FACILITY 1.3 4.4

420710306 BUCK CO INC/QUARRYVILLE 1.4 72.7

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS

LANCASTER PLT 2.1 14.1

420710837 CHESTER CNTY SO LID

W/LANCHESTER LANDFILL 0.5 4.9

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD

DIVISION PLT 1.3 7.5

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW

HOLLAND 7.0 74.0

420710283 COLUMBIA GAS TRANS

CORP/MARIETTA 14.1 0.5

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 2.6 70.5

420710468 DA RT CONTAINER CORP/E 2.7 83.9

# 4 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# LAMPETER WHSE

420710087 DART CONTAINER

CORP/LEOLA 12.2 416.8

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY

---- 11.3

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES

---- 11.1

420710508 GRANGER ENERGY OF

HONEY BROOK

LLC/CAERNARVON TWP

LANCASTER C 16.4 32. 8

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY

TWP PLT ---- 19.3

420710502 GUYON IND INC/MANHEIM

---- 3.8

420710086 HIGH STEEL STRUCTURES

INC/LANCASTER FACILITY 1.6 29.0

420710111 INTELLIGENCER

PRINTING/INTELL PRINTING

LANCASTER CNTY 0.6 16.2

420710094 JL CLARK I NC/LANCASTER 2.5 29.3

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST

HEMPFIELD 30.7 13.0

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY

PROD/LEOLA ---- 12.2

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD

SPECIA/EAST LAMPETER ---- 7.8

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/

LANCASTER 569.8 1.6

# 5 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# 420710890 LANCASTER CNTY

S WMA/FREY FARM

CRESWELL LDFL 0.2 4.2

420710680 LANCASTER HEALTH

ALL/LANCASTER GEN HOSP 9.7 0.2

420710610 LANCASTER

LAB/LANCASTER 1.7 10.8

420710099 LANCASTER TERM

CORP/LANCASTER TERM ---- 8.2

420710486 LIPPERT COMPONENTS

I/DENVER ---- 4.0

420710437 MAN HEIM AUTO

AUCTION/MANHEIM 13.5 12.4

420710470 MARK LINE IND OF PA

/EPHRATA ---- 1.0

420710014 MARS SNACKFOOD US

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN

CANDY PLT 10.2 66.9

420710723 MCNEIL PPC INC/LITITZ 7.4 4.5

420710494 MGS INC/CONST DENVER

---- 5.8

420710456 MORGAN CORP /EPHRATA PLT 0.2 2.4

420710307 MT JOY WIRE CORP/MT JOY 5.1 4.6

420710115 NESSCO ENT LLC DBA

MERIDIAN PROD/EAST EARL ---- 15.8

420710270 NEW HOLLAND CUSTOM

WOODWORK LTD/NEW ---- 13.5

# 6 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# HOLLAND

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK

TEK/NEW HOLLAND ---- 22.7

42071 0469 PARADISE CUSTOM

KITCHENS/PARADISE ---- 2.2

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST

COCALICO TWP PLT 8.5 31.1

420710350 PPL RENEWABLE

ENERGY/FREY FARM

CRESWELL LDFL 17.6 3.5

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT

INC/E EARL TWP ---- 18.8

420710092 QUALITY CUSTO M

CABIN/EARL 0.4 17.1

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE

DIV LANCASTER WEST 8.4 75.3

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST 26.3 165.8

420710317 RR DONNELLEY FINANCIAL

INC/LANCASTER FINANCIAL

PRINTING DIV 4.6 24.2

420710348 SIGNATURE CUS TOM

CABINETRY/EPHRATA 0.1 11.4

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE

HILL ---- 4.6

420710077 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/MARIETTA 127.1 11.2

# 7 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO

x 

# (tons per

year) VOC

(tons per

year)



# 420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S

CANDIES 9.2 17.9

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS

INC/TERRE HILL PLT 38.0 2.2

420710091 VERSATEK ENT LLC/LITITZ

---- 2.4

420710089 WELLBORN HOLDINGS

INC/LUXURY CUSTOM

CABINETRY NEW HOLLAND 0.4 10.6

Total Actual Annual Emissions 1164.9 1995.0



# Point Source Category 2018 Emissions

Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between what was assumed in the Lancaste r Ozone

Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumptions for emissions growth. Bot h sets of

assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each

revision to the maintenance plan. If the revised assu mptions for growth are less than what was

assumed in the original maintenance plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the

maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised

growth in some types of poi nt source are higher, and in some types , the growth is lower,

emissions growth cannot be compared to show the new assumptions still maintain the o zone

standard. Then, a projected emissions inventory needs to be developed and compared. For the

Lancaster A rea, a projected inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be developed to

show maintenance with the standard.

The 2018 point source inventory for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed for

MARAMA by MACTEC . More recently, an emission s inventory of all emission source

categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway) was developed by MARAMA and MACTEC for

a regional modeling effort. Table 3 and Table 4 compare total emissions of NO

x 

# and VOC

produced by non

- EGU sources in the Lancaster A r ea with the recently developed invent ories

. During the last year, MARAMA developed inventories for the baseline year o f 2007 and

projected years of 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025. 2 

# The difference in the inven tory years for the

2 

# MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Julie McDill, Mid

- Atlantic Regional

Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012.

# 8



# inventory used in the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan and new MARAMA/MACTEC

inventory development efforts did not allow for easy comparison of growth factors used for

projecting emissions

. Projected e missions in 2018 were estimated for the maintenance plan

revisions using straight

- lin e interpolation betwee n the 2007 MARAMA baseline inventory and

the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory using the following equation:

2018 emissions = 2007 E missions + ( (2020 E missions

– 2007 emissions) *(2018

- 2007) ÷

(2020

- 2007) )

Emission projections of non

- EGU point sources in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan were

overestimated for the year 2018 when compared to newer emissions data derived by MARAMA.

See Tables 3 and 4.

Table 3 : Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018

Year NO

x



# Emissions

(tons/year) NO

x



# Emissions

(tons/day) VOC

Emissions

(tons/year) VOC

Emissions

(tons/day)

2018 1719.7 4.6 4097.2 11.0

Table 4 : Revised Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non

- EGU

Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 B aseli ne and 2020 P rojected I nventories)

Year NO

x



# Emissions

(tons/year) NO

x



# Emissions

(tons/day) VOC

Emissions

(tons/year) VOC

Emissions

(tons/day)

2007 (Baseline) 1147.3 3.1 2691.8 7.4

2020 (Projected) 1346.2 3.7 2850 .7 7.8

2018

(Interpolated) 1315.6 3.6 282 6.3 7.7

# 9



# Table 5 and Table 6 show actual 2007 and projected 2020 facility emissions of NO

x 

# and VOC

for non

- EGU point source in the Lancaster area.

Table 5 : MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected NOx Point Source Inventories

for the Lancaster Oz one Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline

NO

x 

# Emissions 2020 Projected

NO

x 

# Emissions

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD

INC/MILL PROD 133.9 186.0

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE

LLC/EPHRATA 0.0 0.0

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA

GRINNELL 16.1 19.6

420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/FLOOR PLT 13.2 18.7

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT 65.3 92.7

420710509 B & S

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE 0.0 0.0

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & TANK

CO/RAPHO 0.0 0.0

420710306 BUCK CO INC /QUARRYVILLE 2.2 2.2

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS

LANCASTER PLT 1.9 1.9

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD

DIVISION PLT 2.1 2.1

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW

HOLLAND 13.7 14.8

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 3.3 3.3

# 10



# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline

NO

x 

# Emissions 2020 Projected

NO

x 

# Emissions

420710468 DART CONTAIN ER CORP/E

LAMPETER WHSE 1.8 2.6

420710087 DART CONTAINER

CORP/LEOLA 26.0 36.0

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY 0.4 0.4

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES 0.0 0.0

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY

TWP PLT 0.0 0.0

420710086 HI GH STEEL

STRUCTURES/LANCASTER 1. 5 1.7

420710111 INTELLIGENCER

PRINTING/INTELL PRINTING

LANCASTER C 1.4 1.5

420710094 JL CLARK INC/LANCASTER 2.3 3.2

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST

HEMPFIELD 30.6 43.1

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY

PROD/LEOLA 0.0 0.0

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD

SPECIA/EAST LA MPETER 0.0 0.0

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/

LANCASTER 569.7 601.7

420710890 LANCASTER CNTY

SWMA/FREY FARM

CRESWELL LDFL 0.3 0.3

420710610 LANCASTER 1.6 1.8

# 11



# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline

NO

x 

# Emissions 2020 Projected

NO

x 

# Emissions

LAB/LANCASTER

420710082 LASCO BATHWARE INC/W

DONEGAL TWP 1.2 1.2

420710437 MANHEIM AUTO

AUCTIO N/MANHEIM 0.1 0.1

420710014 MARS SNACKFOOD

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN

CANDY PLT 15.2 18.9

420710115 NESSCO ENT LLC DBA

MERIDIAN PROD/EAST EARL 0.0 0.0

420710270 NEW HOLLAND CUSTOM

WOODWORK LTD/NEW

HOLLAND 0.0 0.0

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK

TEK/NEW HOLLAND 0. 0 0.0

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST

COCALICO TWP PLT 7.4 8.2

420710099 PGH TERM CORP/LANCASTER

TERMINAL 0.0 0.0

420710350 PPL RENEWABLE

ENERGY/FREY FARM

CRESWELL LDFL 18.2 19.2

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT

INC/E EARL TWP 0.1 0.1

420710092 QUALI TY CUSTOM

CABIN/EARL 1.2 1.8

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE 11.9

# 12



# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline

NO

x 

# Emissions 2020 Projected

NO

x 

# Emissions

DIV LANCASTER WEST

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST 25.6 30.5

420710317 RR DONNELLEY &

SONS/LANCASTER

FINANCIAL PRINTING D 4.0 4.1

420710348 SIGNATURE CUSTOM

CA BINETRY/EPHRATA 0.0 0.0

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE

HILL 0.0 0.0

420710077 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/MARIETTA 130.0 164.7

420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S

CANDIES 11.8 12.0

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS

INC/TERRE HILL PLT 36.1 39.2

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD

INC/MILL PROD 133.9 186.0

Total Annual NOx Emissions 1147.3 1346.2

# 13



# Table 6 : MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected VOC Point Source Inventories

for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Ba seline

VOC

Emissions 2020

Projected

VOC

Emissions

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD

INC/MILL PROD 252.5 257.8

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE

LLC/EPHRATA 17.3 17.3

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA

GRINNELL 44.6 44.8

420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/FLOOR PLT 72.3 79. 8

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT 164.8 233.1

420710509 B & S

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE 20 .0 20 .0

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & TANK

CO/RAPHO 17.9 19.5

420710306 BUCK CO INC/QUARRYVILLE 55.1 55.1

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS

LANCASTER PLT 23.7 23.7

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD

DIVISION PLT 21.9 21.9

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW

HOLLAND 150.7 149.4

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 102 .0 102 .0

420710468 DART CONTAINER CORP/E 95.1 143.1

# 14 

# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Ba seline

VOC

Emissions 2020

Projected

VOC

Emissions

LAMPETER WHSE

420710087 DART CONT AINER

CORP/LEOLA 706 706.5

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY 11.3 11.3

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES 18.8 18.8

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY

TWP PLT 17.6 18.3

420710086 HI GH STEEL

STRUCTURES/LANCASTER 33.3 36.2

420710094 JL CLARK INC/LANCASTER 33.1 36.1

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST

HEMPFIELD 26.3 26.9

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY

PROD/LEOLA 16.1 16.4

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD

SPECIA/EAST LAMPETER 10.6 10.6

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/

LANCASTER 1.9 2 .0

420710890 LANCASTER CNTY

SWMA/FREY FARM

CRE SWELL LDFL 4 .0 4.2

420710610 LANCASTER LAB/LANCASTER 10.6 12.3

420710082 LASCO BATHWARE INC/W

DONEGAL TWP 21.2 21.2

420710437 MANHEIM AUTO 11.5 12.1

# 15 

# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Ba seline

VOC

Emissions 2020

Projected

VOC

Emissions

AUCTION/MANHEIM

420710014 MARS SNACKFOOD

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN CANDY

PLT 75.8 76 .0

420710270 NEW HOLLAND C USTOM

WOODWORK LTD/NEW

HOLLAND 12.8 12.8

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK

TEK/NEW HOLLAND 32.6 32.6

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST

COCALICO TWP PLT 24.4 24.4

420710099 PGH TERM CORP/LANCASTER

TERMINAL 11.1 12

420710350 PPL RENEWABLE

ENERGY/FREY FARM

C RESWELL LDFL 3.7 3.9

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT

INC/E EARL TWP 21.2 21.2

420710092 QUALITY CUSTOM

CABIN/EARL 50.2 50.2

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE

DIV LANCASTER WEST 95.8 95.8

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST 246 246.4

420710317 RR DONNELLEY &

SONS/LANCASTER FINANCIAL

PRINTING D 29.1 29.1

# 16 

# EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Ba seline

VOC

Emissions 2020

Projected

VOC

Emissions

Emission

Reduction

Credits RR DONNELLEY & SONS CO 0.0 16.0

420710348 SIGNATURE CUSTOM

CABINETRY/EPHRATA 25.4 25.4

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE

HILL 11.1 11.1

420710077 TEXAS EAST ERN

TRANS/MARIETTA 6.9 7.6

420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S

CANDIES 15.7 15.9

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS INC/TERRE

HILL PLT 1.8 1.9

420710089 WELLBORN HOLDINGS

INC/LUXURY CUSTOM

CABINETRY NEW 21.9 21.9

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD

INC/MILL PROD 252.5 257.8

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE

LLC/EPHRATA 17.3 17.3

Total Annual VOC Emissions 2691.8 2850 .7

# 17



# Area Source Category Emissions

The area source category include emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use,

residential and commercial heating, a nd other sources that emit small amounts of emissions on a

per use basis but have a large number of users. The Lancaster Ozone M aintenance P lan relied on

a number of socioeconomic indicators to es timate emissions

, and projection s of emissions

, such

as: po pulation, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific growth factors. In the

maintenance plan, a baseline area source inventory of 2002 was grown using socioeconomic

factors of expected population and employment growth. For some sources, suc h as coal

- , distillate

- , or natural gas

- fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook or the EGAS

model was used to predict future grow th and emissions. For other area source categories , state

specific industry growth estimate s supplied by the D epartment were used.



# Area Source Category 2009 Emissions

Table 7 shows a recent estimate of actual socioeconomic indicators . A ctual growth that occurred

from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce

, Bureau of Censu s 3

, 4

, 5 

# and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 6



# . The actual grow th is comp ared side

- by

- side with the predicted growth from the Lancaster O zone

M aintenance P lan. The Lancaster O zone M aintenance P la n over

- predicted growth for m ost area

sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. In one category in the maintenance plan, actual growth

was slightly higher than predicted growth: total natural gas consumption compared t o natural gas

consumption in boilers

.

3 

# U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates

[10] data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO

- EST2009

-

01.html, acce ssed October 2011.

4 

# U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2009

Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and non

sampling error, see: http://www. census.gov/popest/topics/methodology, accessed October 2011.

5 

# Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns,

http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html

6 

# Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy , State Energy Data System

- Consumption,

Physical Units, 1960

- 2006, available from: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds

states.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania

# 18



# T able 7 : Revised Socioeco nomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative

to Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2002

- 2009)

Surrogate Indicator for

Growth Actual Use

2002 Actual Use

2009 Actual

Growth

2002

- 2009 Maintenance

Plan Growth

(2002

- 2009)

Population 478,078 507,766 1.062 1.0918

Total Employees 214,288 211,461 1.011 1.1321

Total Coal Consumption ( short

tons ) 403,596 261,637 0.648 0.7488

Total Natural Gas

Consumption (million cubic ft. ) 23,522 25,022 1.064

---

Natural Gas Boilers

--- - -- --- 1.0105

Natural Gas, Residential

--- --- --- 1.0841

Total Heating Oil Consumption

(barrels) 2,560,787 2,493,497 0.974 0.9807



# Area Source Category 2018 Emissions

The Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan estimate d area source sector growth using a ba seline

inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 2018

, based

on the growth of socioeconomic activity

. 7 

# Data used to revise grow th estimates was obtained

from the same MARAMA inventory effort described in the point sour ce section above. The

effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 and maintenance year inventories of 2017, 2020, and

2025. 8 

# Just as in the point source emissions, t hese inventory years made a direct comparison of

emissions and growth rates difficult becaus e the MARAMA baseline years and projected

inventory years were too dissimilar from what was included in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance

P lan

. Therefore, the emissions growth predicted to occur from 2009 to 2018 was determined

through linear interpolation by using emission estimates for 2007 and 2020 from the new

MARAM A inventory . P rojected growth between 2009 and 2018 in the Lancaster O zone

M aintenance P lan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates. In Table 8

, the

revised growth projectio ns are given.

7 

# State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Lancaster Eight

- Hour Ozone

Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B

- 1, Area Source Methodology, p.2.

8 

# Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association,

# 19



# The growth rate predicted in the maintenance plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by the following

formula:

Growth Factor (2009

- 2018) 

# = ( ( Growth Factor (2002

- 2018)



# – Growth Factor (2002

- 2009) 

# )

÷ Growth Factor (2 002

- 2009) 

# ) + 1

A straight line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020

MARAMA projected emissions was used to calculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018.

From these interpolated emissions (see equations 1 and 2 below)

, the projected growth bet ween

2009 and 2018 was calculated (see equation 3 below). Fossil fuel combustion s urrogates in

Table 8 represent most emissions of NO

x 

# , while ‘ population ’ and ‘ employees ’ represent the best

surrogates for many source categ ories tha t produce VOC emissions . The surrogates for growth

s hown in Table 8 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions from area

source categories in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan revision

.

(1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ( 2020 Emissions

– 2007 Emissions ) * ((2009

– 2007) ÷ (2020

- 2007))

(2) 2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions

– 2007 Emissions) * ((2018

– 2007) ÷ (2020

- 2007))

(3) Emissions Growth (2009

- 2018) 

# = ((2018 Emission

– 2009 Emissions) ÷ 2009 Emissions) + 1

Table 8 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative

to the Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2009

- 2018)

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth I n

MAR AMA Inventory

(2009

- 2018) Maintenance Plan

Growth

(2009

- 2018)

Population 1.0509 1.1081

E mployees 1.0113 * 1.1499

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9799 0.9 988

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0055 0.9865

All Combuster Types, Distillate Oil,

Resid ential 0.9615 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0154 1.0521

Combuster Types, Natural Gas,

Residential 1.0034 1.0181

# 20

*The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide N orth A merican I ndustry

C lassification S ystem codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the county

level . Employment growth in Table 8 was derived from U.S Census Bureau industrial emp loyment data and was not

developed by MARAMA

.



# Table 8 shows th at

, for the most part

, growth in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan is

comparable to new assumptions developed by the MARAMA inventory effort. It deserves

mentioning that the two sets of employee growth that are compared in Table 8 were estimated

using two different methods. It is safe to assume that

, due to the severe economic downturn

experienced from 2007 to 2009

, employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the

Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan. Most types of VOC emissions relied on popul ation and

employment data to grow emissions. Population and employment show clearly that current

projections are well below what was project ed in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan.

Emissions of NOx from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel combus tion. While two

categories , commercial anthracite coal consumption and residential distillate consumption

, show

that the maintenance plan predicts less fossil fuel growth than current growth assumptions in the

MARAMA invento ry, the difference in these two categories is small enough to demonstrate that

the emissions growth for 2018 is over

- predicted in the maintenance plan

.



# Nonroad Source Category Emissions

Emissions from the nonroad category are produced by many different types of vehicles and

equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD Model estimates emissions for over 200 types of equipment,

engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as

construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial applications. In

addition, emissions from three types of activities including aircraft, locomotives, and commercial

marine vessels are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are still included in the nonroad

category

. T he aircraft, rail, and commercial marine emiss i ons are estimated outside of the

NONROAD Model

. In the approved Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan

, the NONROAD2005

model was used to estimate nonroad emissions . The model w ent through one major revision

since it was used for the maintenance plan . NONR O AD200 8a is the latest version of this model.

This new version of the model incorporated two reduction strategies that affect engines and

vehicles in the nonroad sector:

Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine engine s

(73 FR 25098); and

The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule

(73 FR 59034).

For the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan , the Department modified files in the NONROAD

Model

, when state specific data was avail able for emission categories such a s residential lawn and

garden.

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Lancaster O zone

M aintena nce P lan

, as a result of the a dditional controls mentioned and other tier level controls

that have been phased in with fleet turnover since 2004 . The fleet turnover that occurs as older,

more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles

# 21



# that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower emi ssions in the nonroad

sector since the late 1990s and will continue to do so for the next 10 years. Emission reduction s

occurred across all segments of the nonroad category

, including construction equipment, farming

equipment, locomotives, and l awn and ga rden equipment. Modeling runs were not completed for

the nonroad emission source categories. The D epartment will treat nonroad emissions in the

Lancaster A

rea as non

- changing from their 2004 levels for the purpose of this SIP revision

, even

though full s cale modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a would show nonroad emiss ions in a

decline

.



# Highway Source Category Emission s

Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

, who is a consultant to the

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating e missions of

highway vehicles is greatly different than what was used in the Lancaster Ozone M aintenance

P lan because an entirely new highway emissions model i s being used. Highway emissions are

being estimated using the MOVES Model instead of the Mobi le6 Model. With this change, a new

set of inputs were used in the MOVES Model . The method for how traffic growth or vehicle

miles travelled was forecasted remains the same as what was used in the Lancaster O zone

M aintenance P lan. Both the revised maintenance plan and the original maintenance plan used the

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth . A revised Appendix C, M aintenance Plan

Update for the Lancaster (Lancaster County) Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a

, is attached

. Also attached, please find

Appendix C

- 1, Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

– An Explanation of Methodology

.

The MOVES Model estimates that highway vehicle emissions increase greatly for VOC and NO

x 

# for the 2009 and 2018 attainment years when compared to the highway vehicle emission

estimates included in the Lancaster O zone M aintenance P lan for those same years . (See Table 9 ).

MOVES also increases the emission estimates of the 2004 a ttainment year. Since the emissions

increase in both the attainment and maintenance years, MOVES modeled emissions , like Mobile

modeled emissions, of highway vehicles still show a large decrease in emission s between 2004

and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018

.

Table 9 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC (tons/day) 19.75 14.3 3 7.77 16.4 1 14.29 8.1 4

NO

x 

# (tons/day) 32.33 22.3 2 8.99 42.1 0 33.18 18. 57

# APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the

Lancaster (Lancaster County)

1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area:

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES2010a

Technical Support Document

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

Executive Summary

May 2012 Prepared for:

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

Prepared by:

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

1304 Concourse Drive

Linthicum, MD 21090

410-689-3400

# Lancaster Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Executive Summary

May 2012



# Exhibit of Contents

SUMMARY ...........................................

................................................... ................................................... ................. 1

R EVISED 

# E MISSIONS 

# I NVENTORY



# .................................................. ................................................... .......................... 1

A NALYSIS 

# M ETHODOLOGY



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................... 2

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS ...................

................................................... ..................................... 3

A NALYSIS 

# T OOLS



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................................. 3

T RAFFIC 

# D ATA 

# S OURCE 

# /F LEET 

# D ATA 

# I NPUTS



# .................................................. ................................................... ...... 4

T RAFFIC 

# G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# .................................................. ................................................... ......................... 5

V EHICLE 

# P OPULATION 

# G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# .................................................. ................................................... ... 6

I/M AND 

# F UEL 

# P ARAMETERS



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................ 7

M ETEOROLOGY 

# D ATA



# .................................................. ................................................... .......................................... 8

V EHICLE 

# T ECHNOLOGY 

# P ROGRAMS



# .................................................. ................................................... ..................... 8

RESOURCES .........................................

................................................... ................................................... ................ 9



# List of Exhibits

E XHIBIT 

# 1: S UMMARY OF 

# A PPENDICES



# .................................................. ................................................... ...................... 1

E XHIBIT 

# 2: R EVISED 

# M OTOR 

# V EHICLE 

# E MISSIONS 

# U SING 

# MOVES2010 A



# .................................................. ................... 2

E XHIBIT 

# 3: S UMMARY OF 

# A NALYSIS 

# T OOLS



# .................................................. ................................................... .............. 3

E XHIBIT 

# 4: PPSUITE P ROCESS



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................. 4

E XHIBIT 

# 5: VMT G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# .................................................. ................................................... ................. 6



# Summary of Appendices

Appendix C-1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Ex planation of Methodology

Appendix C-2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx)

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type)

Appendix C-3: MOVES Sample Input Files

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1



# SUMMARY

This technical appendix supports the revised mainte nance plan for the Lancaster Area under the 1997 8-

hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Section 107 of the Clean Air Act

(CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be co nsidered for redesignation. One of those requireme nts

includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors, volatile organic compounds

(VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), for a base year, t he year the region attains the ozone standard, and

projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The emissions inventory is

used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the ozone standard. U.S

. EPA’s redesignation guidance states, “A state may g enerally demonstrate maintenance of the NAAQS by

either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will not exceed the level of the

attainment inventory, or by modeling to show that t he future mix of sources and emission rates will no t

cause a violation of the NAAQS.”

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inve ntory for the Lancaster Area was originally

approved by EPA on July 6, 2007 as documented in th e Federal register ( 72 FR 36889 ) and was effective

on the same day. At that time, EPA also approved th e motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for VOC

and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. The original budgets were developed

using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA-approved emission m odel at that time. On March 2, 2010, EPA

officially released MOVES2010a to be used for all S IP submittals and future transportation conformity

analyses after a grace period through March 2, 2013 . This maintenance plan update revises the 2009 an d

2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010a.

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the metho dology and analysis results for the motor vehicle

emissions inventory. To complement this executive s ummary, attachments have been provided with

additional detail regarding the analysis methodolog y, the MOVES input parameters, and the output

vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emission results for the Lancaster Maintenance Area . These include:



# Exhibit 1: Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description

C-1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to

calculate the VMT and emissions.



# C-2 Ozone (VOC, NOx)

Emission Results Provides emission exhibits by county, road type, an d source

type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and 2018.



# C-3 MOVES Sample Input File Provides examples of the MO VES input files.



# Revised Emissions Inventory

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions fo r the Lancaster Area is provided in Exhibit 2 . Both

VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010a emission model and

latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been e stimated for the 2004 attainment year, 2009 and

2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the or iginal maintenance plan have been included in the

exhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions

.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2 

# Exhibit 2: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MO VES2010a

(Short Tons/Day)

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010 a Emissions



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC 19. 75 14.3 0 7.8 0 16

. 4 1 14. 29 8. 1 4

NOx 32.3 3 22.3 0 9.0 0 4 2

. 1 0 3 3

. 18 18

. 57



# Analysis Methodology

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop th e base and future year emissions inventories for

the Lancaster Maintenance Area . They include:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation

Conformity, and Other Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Confo rmity , US EPA Office of Air and

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Qua lity, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

• Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036,

August 2010.

The highway mobile source emission inventory was de veloped using available travel data and EPA’s

MOVES2010a emission model. The methodologies used t o produce the emission data conform to the

recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance . A mix of local data and national default

(internal to MOVES2010a) data has been used for thi s submission. Local data has been used for the

primary data items that have a significant impact o n emissions. These include:

• Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by vehicle type.

• Average speed distribution.

• Vehicle type mixes.

• Source type population (for light-duty vehicles).

• Vehicle age distribution.

• Hourly distributions.

• Meteorology data.

• Inspection/Maintenance program.

• Fuel supply.

Most local data inputs to the analysis process refl ect the latest planning assumptions based on 2008 d ata

obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transp ortation (PennDOT), the Bureau of Motor Vehicles,

and other local/national sources. Newer data was available and was used for traffic forecast growth rates,

control strategies (e.g. Inspection-Maintenance pro grams), vehicle age distributions and fuel

characteristics.

The analysis methodology is consistent with past st atewide inventory efforts including the 2008 Nation al

Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This include s the use of custom post processing software to

calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic inp ut files to the MOVES2010a emission model. A

detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C-1 . The following sections address the key input dat a

sources and analysis tools used for the emissions i nventory for the Lancaster Area.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3



# DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS

This section provides a summary of the key input da ta and analysis tools used for producing the

Lancaster Maintenance Area emissions inventory. The key elements to the mode ling protocol are

described in the sections below. A more detailed d escription of the analysis process and tools is pro vided

in the methodology reports in Appendix C-1 through C-3

.



# Analysis Tools

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis uti lizes several key software/programs for producing t he

county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3

.



# Exhibit 3: Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose

MOVES2010a Produces emission rates for each ozone

precursor, VOC and NOx.

PPSUITE Processes the highway data ; Calculates

hourly congested speeds for each state

roadway segment; Prepares MOVES2010a

input files; Processes MOVES2010a output

files into a summary report.

CENTRAL Provides a batch menu driven process to

execute PPSUITE, MOVES2010a and other

MYSQL steps.

The Lancaster Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source emiss ion estimations

using EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2,

2010 and was followed with a revised version (MOVES 2010a) in August 2010. The MOVES2010a

model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2.

MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and control

strategy data to estimate emissions.

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system

that has been used for previous inventory and confo rmity submissions in Pennsylvania. The software ha s

undergone significant revisions to ensure consisten cy with the MOVES2010a. PPSUITE was used to

calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT,

prepare MOVES2010a traffic-related input files and process MOVES2010a outputs.

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and

transportation conformity analyses throughout Penns ylvania. Exhibit 4 summarizes the key functions of

PPSUITE.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4 

# Exhibit 4: PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu-driven software platform that exe cutes the PPSUITE and MOVES2010a processes

in batch mode. The software allows users to execut e runs for a variety of input options and integrate s

custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provi des important quality control and assurance

steps including file naming and storage automation.



# Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs

Traffic Volume Data : The 2008 PennDOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the

primary highway data source for the county and func tional class VMT estimates. The data source has

been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regiona l roadway system and traffic volumes in 2008 and is

also integrated with traffic signal locations. The data includes the 2008 average annual daily traffi c

(AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvan ia. To account for additional local roadway VMT

and to ensure consistency with reported Highway Per formance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT totals,

the 2008 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 2008 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA.

Seasonal Adjustments : Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on each RMS

roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are

developed from data contained in the document, 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data , prepared by

PennDOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). T he seasonal and daily factors provided in this

document are based on statistical analyses of 2008 traffic counts taken at permanent and in-pavement

ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations througho ut the state. Based on these seasonal traffic vol umes,

the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested sp eeds for each roadway segment during an ozone

summer weekday scenario.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5



# Congested Speeds : PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of th e day for each roadway segment

and provides the information as input to the MOVES2 010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS

volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pa ttern data from PennDOT’s 2008 Pennsylvania

Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variatio ns in traffic volumes.

Vehicle Population : Vehicle population is a key input that has an imp ortant impact on start and

evaporative emissions. MOVES2010a requires the num ber of vehicles by 13 source types to determine

evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registra tion data was used to estimate vehicle population f or

light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data was split to source types using MOVES2010a default

population data. For transit buses, data from Penn DOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was

used to estimate transit bus populations by county. For all other heavy-duty vehicles, PPSUITE calcula tes

vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT f or each source type and default MOVES2010a ratios

of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type). Vehicle

population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc.

for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate meth odology includes:

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth ass umptions

VMT by Source Type : The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES201 0a source types. For this

inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grouping utilizing a

combination of:

• 2008 RMS truck percentages

• PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data

• 2008 school bus registration data

EPA’s MOVES2010a default distribution of VMT by sou rce type was used to determine the remaining

source type VMT percentages. The development of ve hicle type pattern data input to the MOVES2010a

software is described in more detail in Appendix C-1

.

Vehicle Age Distribution: Vehicle age distributions are required to be inpu t by 13 source types. The

distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. A recent 2010 regis tration

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Re gistration Database has indicated a substantially

older fleet than recorded in the 2002-2008 period. The 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for

this inventory. Due to insufficient data, only dat a for light-duty vehicles are used as local inputs; and

heavy-duty vehicle ages are calculated using the in ternal MOVES2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania

County. The registration data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. The data was

converted to source types using the EPA convertor s preadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a

emission model.



# Traffic Growth Assumptions

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. T here

are many uncertainties affecting projections of tra ffic growth including the current economic conditio ns,

potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Sha le activities in many counties throughout the state , and

the future growth in population and employment. Gr owth rates for this emissions inventory were based

on an assessment of available data sources.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6



# For the Lancaster Maintenance Area , the following data sources are available:

• PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system.

• Regional Travel Model.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include t he review and assessment of county-specific growth

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Gro wth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14,

2005 . As part of that study, a statewide traffic growt h forecasting system was developed that incorporate s

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information Sys tem and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is upda ted on a periodic basis. This system was last

updated in December of 2009 to develop new statisti cal relationships between historic VMT growth and

population (thru 2008). The forecast population wa s estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010

State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between PennDOT, PaDEP, and other

Interagency Consultation Group members, including t he Pennsylvania Transportation - Air Quality Work

Group (which also includes EPA, FHWA, and represent atives from larger MPOs within the state).

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting s ystem are evaluated against other available data

including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of th e

VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses . From an air quality perspective, the use of the

upper boundary is conservative, and provides for fa ctors outside PennDOT or PaDEP control (e.g.,

potential socio-economic growth above current forec asts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distrib ution)

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for

future analysis years in the Lancaster Maintenance Area

.



# Exhibit 5: VMT Growth Assumptions

Analysis

Year Total Growth

from 2004 Annualized Growth Rate

from Previous Year

2004

---- ----

2009 9.7% 1.9%

2018 47.8% 3.4%



# Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays an impo rtant key role in determining emissions for future

years for the region. For this inventory, vehicle population was forecasted considering the growth fr om

three different sources:

• Household growth

• Population Growth

• VMT Growth

The household and population data were obtained fro m the PennDOT study documented in the report as

discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System:

Final Report, March 14, 2005. The forecast household and population were estimate d from the Woods

and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest g rowth between household and population data was

obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT

growth.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7



# I/M and Fuel Parameters

I/M Program: The inspection maintenance (I/M) program inputs to the MOVES2010a model are based

on past and current programs within each county (al l PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries).

All analysis years include Pennsylvania’s statewide program. The MOVES2010a model has simplified

the I/M program input parameters compared to MOBILE 6.2. The default I/M program parameters

included in MOVES2010a were examined for each count y and necessary changes made to the defaults to

match the actual local program.

In order to assure that emission controls are worki ng properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/ M)

programs have been adopted in some nonattainment ar eas. These programs have the added benefit of

improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. The Pen nsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program

was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase-in period starting in September 2003 and

fully implemented by June 2004.

The program requirements vary by region (five regio ns) and include on-board diagnostics (OBD)

technology that uses the vehicle’s computer for mod el years 1996 and newer to identify potential engin e

and exhaust system problems that could affect emiss ions. The program, named PAOBDII, is

implemented by region, as follows:

• Philadelphia Region - Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philade lphia Counties

• Pittsburgh Region - Allegheny, Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland C ounties

• South Central and Lehigh Valley Region - Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon,

Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties

• North Region - Blair, Cambria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzern e, Lycoming, and Mercer

Counties

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia an d Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburg h

and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests . Tests in other regions include:

• Subject vehicles registered in the South Central an d Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual,

OBD and gas cap tests.

• Subject vehicles registered in the North region rec eive a gas cap test and visual inspection.

• Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 countie s (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection

as part of the annual safety inspection.

Fuel Assumptions : The MOVES2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and

updated based on available local volumetric fuel pr operty information. The gasohol market penetration

and RVP values were updated but MOVES2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters.

Updated assumptions included:

• 8.7 RVP used for summer months.

• Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004.

• 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% m arket share of 10% ethanol used

throughout the year for analysis year 2009.

• 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis y ear 2018.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8



# Meteorology Data

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. ( www.weatherbank.com ). The

10-year average minimum and maximum monthly tempera ture and relative humidity values were

obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pen nsylvania.

The MOVES2010a model requires temperature and relat ive humidity data for each hour of the day.

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly

temperature profile that could be input to MOVES201 0a. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008

NEI inventory submission.



# Vehicle Technology Programs

Federal Programs

Current federal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MOVES2010a

software. These include the National Program standa rds covering model year vehicles through 2016.

Modifications of default emission rates are require d to reflect the early implementation of the Nation al

Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Penn sylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has

released instructions and input files that can be u sed to model these impacts. This inventory utilize d the

August 2010 version of the files ( http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm ).

State Programs

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adop ted in 1998, incorporated the California Low

Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by reference, a lthough it allowed automakers to comply with the

NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008,

“new” passenger cars and light-duty trucks with a g ross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds

or less that are sold or leased and titled in Penns ylvania must be certified by the California Air Res ources

Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 sta tes. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualifi ed

vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 mi les. PaDEP and PennDOT worked with the

automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interes ted business partners and finalized procedures for

complying with these new requirements. DEP focuses its outreach effort with the manufacturers and

dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compl iant.

PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registrat ion records include these certifications of complia nce

or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemptio n to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use

information obtained during PennDOT’s title and reg istration process to oversee and audit, as needed,

certain vehicle title transactions to determine com pliance to the program.

The impacts of this program are modeled for all ana lysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions

and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis . EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVI I

program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania.

# Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9



# RESOURCES

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in State

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023 , April 2010.

2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 2008.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation Conformity

, and Other

Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09- 046, December 2009.

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVE S, US EPA, EPA-420-B-10-003a, August 2010.

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report,

Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005.

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weat herbank.com

# APPENDIX C-1

Lancaster County - An Explanation of Methodology

# An Explanation of Methodology 

# Explanation of Methodology

May 2012



# TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ......................................

................................................... ................................................... ........... 1

O VERVIEW OF 

# E MISSIONS 

# I NVENTORIES



# .................................................. ................................................... ............... 1

H IGHWAY 

# V EHICLE 

# E MISSION 

# I NVENTORIES



# .................................................. ................................................... ........ 1

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? ..........

................................................... ........................ 4

S UMMARY OF 

# MOVES I NPUTS



# .................................................. ................................................... ............................. 4

V EHICLE 

# M ILES OF 

# T RAVEL 

# (VMT) .............................................

................................................... .......................... 5

A DJUSTMENTS TO 

# R OADWAY 

# D ATA



# .................................................. ................................................... ..................... 8

V EHICLE 

# T YPE 

# P ROCESSING



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................. 9

V EHICLE 

# F LEET AND 

# P OPULATION 

# D ATA



# .................................................. ................................................... ........... 10

E NVIRONMENTAL



# , F UEL AND 

# T ECHNOLOGY 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# .................................................. .................................. 11

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE ...............

................................................... ............................ 12

V OLUME 

# /VMT D EVELOPMENT



# .................................................. ................................................... .......................... 12

S PEED 

# /D ELAY 

# D ETERMINATION



# .................................................. ................................................... ......................... 15

HPMS AND 

# VMT A DJUSTMENTS



# .................................................. ................................................... ....................... 16

MOVES E MISSIONS 

# R UN



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................... 17

RESOURCES .........................................

................................................... ................................................... .............. 18

HIGHWAY VEHICLE INVENTORY GLOSSARY ................

................................................... .......................... 19



# List of Exhibits

E XHIBIT 

# 1: S UMMARY OF 

# PPSUITE P ROCESS



# .................................................. ................................................... ........... 3

E XHIBIT 

# 2: MOVES L OCAL 

# D ATA 

# I NPUT 

# S UMMARY



# .................................................. ................................................... 4

E XHIBIT 

# 3: P ENN 

# DOT U RBAN 

# /R URAL AND 

# F UNCTIONAL 

# C LASS 

# C ODES



# .................................................. ..................... 6

E XHIBIT 

# 4: E MISSION 

# F ACTOR VS



# . S PEED 

# V ARIANCES 

# (NO X 

# ) ................................................. ....................................... 7

E XHIBIT 

# 5: MOVES S OURCE 

# T YPES AND 

# HPMS V EHICLE 

# G ROUPS



# .................................................. ............................ 9

E XHIBIT 

# 6: PPSUITE S PEED 

# / E MISSION 

# E STIMATION 

# P ROCEDURE



# .................................................. ............................ 13

# Appendix C-1 1



# INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this document is to explain how the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental

Protection (Department) estimates emissions from hi ghway vehicles for inclusion in its emission

inventories and State Implementation Plans.



# Overview of Emissions Inventories

The Department’s inventories generally categorize emissions into four categories:

• Highway vehicles.

• Stationary sources (major industrial, commercial an d utility sources).

• Area sources (smaller industrial/commercial sources , consumer products).

• Nonroad mobile sources (including construction and agricultural equipment, lawn and garden

equipment).

An evaluation of emissions from point, area, and mo bile sources is needed to develop a complete

inventory needed for a maintenance demonstration pl an. This documentation addresses the mobile source

activity and emissions for base and future years us ed to support such a demonstration.

Of all of the sources of air pollution, only the em issions of some stationary sources are measured dir ectly

and continuously through instrumentation. Emission s from all other sources must be modeled based on

available local data, including those from highway vehicles. In their very simplest form, estimates o f

emissions follow the following pattern:

Emission rate x activity level = emissions per time period (usually day or year)

Most emission rates have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in

cooperation with industry and states, and are compi led and documented into key references or emission

models. These include Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors (AP-42), the Motor Vehicle

Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, and the NONROAD m odel. Adding up the products of the

emission rates and activity levels for all sources of a given pollutant constitutes the emission inven tory for

that pollutant.



# Highway Vehicle Emission Inventories

Highway vehicles contribute significantly to air po llution, particularly to ground-level ozone, which is the

most persistent air pollutant in Pennsylvania. Gro und-level 

# ozone is not emitted directly to the

atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reaction s between volatile organic compounds

(VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO

x 

# ) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humi d days of

summer are particularly conducive to ozone formatio n, so ozone levels are of concern primarily

during the months of May through September. B oth VOCs and NOx are emitted from highway

vehicles. Pennsylvania’s ozone-related emission in ventory efforts focus on these two types of polluta nts.

Obviously, direct measurement of emission levels fr om all vehicles in use is impossible. In compariso n

to highway vehicles, estimating residential heating emissions is a fairly simple calculation because t here

is a constant emission rate and a fairly simple mea sure of activity. However, for highway vehicles

# Appendix C-1 2



# estimating the emission rate and activity levels of all vehicles on the road during a typical summer d ay is

a complicated endeavor.

If every vehicle emitted the same amount of polluti on all the time, one could simply multiply those

emission standards (emission rate in grams of pollu tion per mile) times the vehicle miles traveled (VM T)

to estimate total emissions. But emission rates fr om all vehicles vary over the entire range of condi tions

under which they operate. These variables include air temperature, speed, traffic conditions, operati ng

mode and fuel characteristics. The inventory must also account for non-exhaust or evaporative emissio ns.

In addition, the fleet is composed of several gener ations and types of vehicles with different emissio n

control technologies. This requires the estimation algorithm include the composition of the fleet (veh icle

ages and types).

In order to estimate both the rate at which emissio ns are being generated and to calculate vehicle mil es

traveled (activity level), Pennsylvania examines it s road network and fleet to estimate vehicle activi ty.

For ozone-related inventories, this is done for a t ypical summer weekday. For carbon monoxide (CO) an d

particulate matter (PM) emission inventories, this may be done for a typical winter weekday, summer

weekday and/or annual conditions. Not only must th is be done for a baseline year, but it must also be

projected into the future. This process involves a large quantity of data and is extremely complex.

Computer models have been developed to perform thes e calculations by simulating the travel of vehicles

on the Commonwealth’s roadway system. The models a lso generate emissions rates (also called emission

factors) for different vehicle types for area-speci fic conditions, and then combine them in summary fo rm.

The area-specific conditions include vehicle and hi ghway data, plus control measure characteristics an d

future year projections of all variables. The key models used to generate this mobile source emission s

inventory are:

MOVES: EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on Marc h 2, 2010 and was followed with a

revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The M OVES model provides a more robust estimate of

emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES calculates average in-use fleet emissions

for each of thirteen categories of vehicles under v arious conditions affecting in-use emission levels (e.g.,

ambient temperatures, average traffic speeds, gasol ine volatility) as specified by the model user.

For this mobile source inventory, Pennsylvania used MOVES2010a as approved by EPA. MOVES can

be used to estimate national, state, and county lev el inventories of criteria air pollutants, precurso rs,

greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source ai r toxics from highway vehicles. Additionally,

MOVES can make projections for energy consumption ( total, petroleum-based, and fossil-based).

PPSUITE: For the Department’s highway emissions inventory, a post processor named PPSUITE

(formerly named PPAQ - Post Processor for Air Quali ty) is used, which consists of a set of programs th at

perform the following functions:

• Analyzes highway operating conditions.

• Calculates highway speeds.

• Compiles vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle type mix data.

• Prepares MOVES runs and processes MOVES outputs.

PPSUITE is a widely used and accepted tool for esti mating speeds and processing emissions rates. The

software is based upon accepted transportation engi neering methodologies. For example, PPSUITE uses

speed and delay estimation procedures based on plan ning methods provided in the Highway Capacity

Manual , a report prepared by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summarizing current knowledge

and analysis techniques for capacity and level-of-s ervice analyses of the transportation system.

# Appendix C-1 3



# The PPSUITE process is integral to producing key in put files to the MOVES emission model. Exhibit 1

summarizes the key functions of PPSUITE and the tra ffic-related input files prepared for the MOVES

County Data Manager (CDM).



# Exhibit 1: Summary of PPSUITE Process

The following sections summarize the key data and m ethodologies used to produce the mobile source

emissions inventory. This includes a summary of lo cal data sources and a step-by-step review of the

speed calculation process. The emission data and p rocess has been developed according to

recommendations provided by EPA in key policy and t echnical guidance as provided below:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation

Conformity, and Other Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Confo rmity , US EPA Office of Air and

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Qua lity, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

The process has focused on developing an emissions inventory using the available tools and data to its

fullest extent. This includes the use of available local data for items that have a significant impac t on

emissions and applying a robust calculation process to estimate hourly traffic speeds.

# Appendix C-1 4



# WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA?

Summary of MOVES Inputs

A large number of inputs to MOVES are needed to ful ly account for the numerous vehicle and

environmental parameters that affect emissions. Th ese include traffic flow characteristics (as determ ined

from the PPSUITE software), vehicle descriptions, f uel parameters, inspection/maintenance program

parameters, and environmental variables. MOVES incl udes a default national database of meteorology,

vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, fuel, and emission control program data for every county; but EPA can not

certify that the default data is the most current o r best available information for any specific area. As a

result, local data is recommended for use for analy ses supporting state implementation plans (SIPs).

A mix of local and default data is used for this in ventory. Local data sources are used for all input s that

have a significant impact on calculated emission ra tes. Exhibit 2 summarizes Pennsylvania-specific

inputs assembled and used for this inventory. Thes e data items are discussed in the following section s.



# Exhibit 2: MOVES Local Data Input Summary

Traffic Vehicl e Fuel Inspection Environmental

Data Descripti ons Parameters M aintenance Variables

Vehicle Type Vehicle Type RVP Start Year Hourly

VMT Mix Model Years Temperatures

Vehicle Vehicle Age Sulfur Test Standards,

Population Distribution Level Source Types, Humidity

Frequency

VMT Average Speeds Ethanol Stringency,

Fractions (PPSUITE) Volume Waiver Rate,

(PPSUITE) Compliance

Road Type Hourly Refueling

Distribution Distributions Controls

(PPSUITE)

Ramp

Fraction

(PPSUITE)

Emission Rates

# Appendix C-1 5



# Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)

The VMT input to emissions calculations for Pennsyl vania is based on information from the Roadway

Management System (RMS) maintained by the Pennsylva nia Department of Transportation’s

(PennDOT’s) Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). PennDOT obtains this information from periodic

visual and electronic traffic counts. RMS data is dynamic, since it is continually reviewed and updat ed

from new traffic counts and field visits conducted by PennDOT. Information on roadways included in th e

National Highway System is reviewed at least annual ly, while information on other roadways is reviewed

at least biennially.

On a triennial basis, a current “snapshot” of the R MS database is taken and downloaded to provide an u pto-date record of the Commonwealth’s highway system for estimating emissions. This emissions

inventory is based on the most current snapshot of the RMS data.

The RMS database contains all state highways, inclu ding the Pennsylvania Turnpike, divided into

segments approximately 0.5 miles in length. These segments are usually divided at important

intersections or locations where there is a change in the physical characteristics of the roadway (e.g . the

number of lanes changes). There are approximately 99,000 state highway segments for the 67

Pennsylvania counties contained in the RMS. Each o f these segments contains an abundance of

descriptive data, but only the following informatio n is extracted for emission calculations:

• Lanes.

• Distances.

• Volumes representing Average Annual Daily Traffic ( AADT).

• Truck percentages.

• PennDOT urban/rural classifications.

• PennDOT functional class codes.

• Number of signals (based on linkage to PennDOT GIS signal location data).

RMS volumes and distances are used in calculating h ighway VMT totals for each county. As discussed

in the next section, adjustments are needed to conv ert the volumes to an average summer weekday, winte r

weekday, and monthly day. In addition, the traffic volumes must be forecast to support future year

emission inventories. Lane values and traffic sign als are an important input for determining the

congestion and speeds for individual highway segmen ts. Truck percentages are used in the speed

determination process and are used to split volumes to individual vehicle types used by the MOVES

software.

Road segments are classified by function, as well a s whether it is located in an urban, small urban or rural

area, as indicated below in Exhibit 3. The PennDOT urban/rural (UR) and functional classes (FC) are

important indicators of the type and function of ea ch roadway segment. The variables provide insights

into other characteristics not contained in the RMS data that are used for speed and emission calculat ions.

# Appendix C-1 6 

# Exhibit 3: PennDOT Urban/Rural and Functional Class Codes

Urban/Rural Code 1=Rural

2=Small Urban

3=Urban

Functional Class Rural Functional Classes Used Urb an Functional Classes Used

For Rural Areas For Small Urban and Urban Area s

------------------------------------- ---------- -------------------------------- 1=Rural Freeway 11=Urban Freeway

2=Rural Other Principal Arterial 12=Urban Expres sway

6=Rural Minor Arterial 14=Urban Principal Arter ial

7=Rural Major Collector 16=Urban Minor Arterial

8=Rural Minor Collector 17=Urban Collector

9=Rural Local 19=Urban Local



# Additional Network Information: The PPSUITE software system allows for many additio nal variables

other than those available in the RMS database. Us ing these variables improves the ability of the

Department to incorporate real roadway conditions i nto its estimates. The variables include informati on

regarding free-flow speeds and capacities, signal c haracteristics and other physical roadway features that

can affect a roadway’s calculated congested speed. This data can be determined from lookup tables bas ed

on a roadway segment’s urban/rural code and functio nal class. Much of the lookup table data was

developed from information contained in the Highway Capacity Manual , PennDOT information on

speeds and signal densities, and other engineering judgment.

MOVES Traffic Inputs: The PPSUITE software uses RMS traffic data to prep are key inputs to the

MOVES emission model including:

• VMT.

• Travel speeds.

• Road type distributions.

• Ramp fractions.

VMT is the primary traffic input that affects emiss ion results. The roadway segment distances and tra ffic

volumes are used to prepare estimates of VMT. PPSU ITE performs these calculations and outputs the

MOVES annual VMT input file to the County Data Mana ger (CDM).

Emissions for many pollutants (including both VOC a nd NOx) vary significantly with travel speed.

While VOCs generally decrease as speed increases, N Ox decreases at the low speed range and increases

at higher speeds, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. To obtain the best estimate of vehicle speeds, the Dep artment

uses the PPSUITE set of programs, whose primary fun ction is to calculate speeds and to organize and

simplify the handling of large amounts of data need ed for calculating speeds and for preparing MOVES

input files. The PPSUITE software prepares the MOV ES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by speed bin file

which summarizes the distribution of speeds across all links into each of 16 MOVES speed bins for each

hour of the day. This robust process ensures that MOVES emission rates are used to the fullest extent and

is consistent with the methods and recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use

of MOVES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation

Conformity

.

# Appendix C-1 7 

# Exhibit 4: Emission Factor vs. Speed Variances (NOx )

In MOVES, typical drive cycles and associated opera ting conditions vary by the type of roadway.

MOVES defines five different road types as follows:

1 Off-Network.

2 Rural Restricted Access.

3 Rural Unrestricted Access.

4 Urban Restricted Access.

5 Urban Unrestricted Access.

The off-network road type includes emissions from v ehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporat ive

emissions. Off-network activity in MOVES is primar ily determined by the Source Type Population

input, as discussed in a following section. The re maining distribution among road types is determined by

equating the PennDOT functional class with each MOV ES road type as follows:

• MOVES Road Type (2) = PennDOT Functional Class (1).

• MOVES Road Type (3) = PennDOT Functional Class (2,6 ,7,8,9).

• MOVES Road Type (4) = PennDOT Functional Class (11, 12).

• MOVES Road Type (5) = PennDOT Functional Class (14, 16,17,19).

For this inventory, the MOVES road type distributio n file is automatically generated by PPSUITE using

the defined equivalencies.

Since ramps are not directly represented within the RMS database information, it is assumed that 8% of

the Freeway VHT is Ramp VHT. This is consistent wi th the recommendations provided in EPA’s

technical guidance. Source: Figure 3 from Implications of the MOVES2010 Model on Mobile

Source Emission Estimates, Air & Waste Management A ssociation, July 2010.

# Appendix C-1 8



# Adjustments to Roadway Data

Before the RMS data can be used by PPSUITE for spee d and emission calculations, several adjustments

and additions must be made to the roadway data. Th ese adjustments are summarized below.

HPMS Adjustments: According to EPA guidance, baseline inventory VMT computed from the RMS

highway segment volumes must be adjusted to be cons istent with Highway Performance Monitoring

System (HPMS) VMT totals. The HPMS VMT reported for Pennsylvania is a subsystem of the RMS

established to meet the data reporting requirements of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and

to serve as PennDOT’s official source of highway in formation. Although it has some limitations, the

HPMS system is currently in use in all 50 states an d is being improved under FHWA direction.

Although the HPMS VMT and the roadway data used for an inventory emissions analysis are both based

on data from the RMS system, differences do exist b etween them and include the following. First, the

HPMS and inventory roadway data are “snapshots” of the RMS data taken at different times. Since the

RMS is dynamic, changing constantly due to new data , differences will result between the data used for

calculating HPMS VMT totals and the inventory data used for an emissions analysis. Second, since the

RMS does not contain many of the local roadways, lo cal road estimates of HPMS VMT are obtained

through alternative procedures developed by PennDOT . To account for such differences, adjustment

factors are calculated and used to adjust the inven tory roadway data to the reported HPMS VMT totals

submitted to FHWA. The VMT contained in the HPMS re ports are considered to represent average

annual daily traffic (AADT).

Adjustment factors are calculated which adjust the base year RMS download VMT to the reported HPMS

totals for that year. These factors are developed for each county and functional class combination an d are

also applied to all future year runs. Adjustments for the “higher” functional classes (e.g. Freeway,

Arterials - major routes) are close to 1.000 since HPMS VMT is derived from RMS information, and the

only difference in the data is that the “snapshot” for the emission calculations is taken at a differe nt time

than for the HPMS. “Lower” classes (e.g. local roa ds) require greater adjustment since a large part o f the

local system is not under state jurisdiction and is not in the RMS database. There is, of course, a

significant amount of local road mileage in the sta te. It is assumed that those local streets that are in RMS

are representative of all local streets in their ar ea with respect to volume and speed, so that roadwa y

mileage adjustment is appropriate.

Seasonal Adjustments to Volumes: The RMS contains AADT volumes that are an average of all days in

the year, including weekends and holidays. An ozo ne emission analysis, however, is based on a typica l

July or summer weekday. PM and CO analyses requir e volumes representing a typical summer or winter

weekday and monthly average conditions (needed for producing annual totals). Therefore, the RMS

volumes must be seasonally adjusted. Seasonal fact ors were developed for each functional class and

urban/rural code based on yearly count information prepared by PennDOT’s BPR. These factors are

applied to the existing RMS AADT volumes to produce the July volumes. The same factors are also used

to develop the MOVES daily and monthly VMT fraction files.

Hourly Adjustments: Speeds and emissions vary considerably depending on the time of day.

Therefore, it is important to estimate the pattern by which roadway volume varies by hour of the day. The

24-hour pattern data provides PPSUITE with informat ion used to split the daily roadway segment

volumes to each of the 24 hours in a day. Pattern data is in the form of a percentage of the daily vo lumes

for each hour. Distributions are provided for each county and functional class grouping. This data i s

developed from 24-hour count data compiled by PennD OT’s BPR, according to the process in the

agencies annual traffic data reports. The same fac tors are also used to develop the MOVES hourly

fraction file.

# Appendix C-1 9



# Traffic Volume Forecasts: Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role i n estimating future year

emissions for the region. There are many uncertain ties affecting projections of traffic growth, inclu ding

the current economic conditions, potential fuel pri ces, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in m any

counties throughout the state, and the future growt h in population and employment. Growth rates for t he

Department’s emissions inventories are based on an assessment of available data sources which include:

• PennDOT BPR growth rate forecasting system.

• Regional travel model, if available.

• Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growt h, if applicable.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include t he review and assessment of county-specific growth

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Gro wth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14,

2005 . As part of that study, a statewide traffic growt h forecasting system was developed that incorporate s

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information Sys tem and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is upda ted on a periodic basis to develop new statistical

relationships between historic VMT growth and popul ation and updated demographic forecasts from

Woods and Poole, Inc. The growth rates from the Pe nnDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated

against other available data including travel model growth and other insights.



# Vehicle Type Processing

Emission rates within MOVES vary significantly by t he type of vehicle. The MOVES model produces

emissions and rates by thirteen MOVES vehicle sourc e types. However, VMT is input to MOVES by six

HPMS vehicle groups. Exhibit 5 summarizes the dist inction between each classification scheme.



# Exhibit 5: MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Grou ps

SOURCE TYPES HPMS Class Groups

11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycle

21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Car

31 Passenger Truck 30 Passenger/Light Truck

32 Light Commercial Truck 40 Buses

41 Intercity Bus 50 Single Unit Trucks

42 Transit Bus 60 Combination Trucks

43 School bus

51 Refuse Truck

52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck

53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck

54 Motor Home

61 Combination Short-haul Truck

62 Combination Long-haul Truck



# The process used for this inventory includes a meth od to disaggregate the RMS traffic volumes to the

thirteen source types and then to recombine the est imates to the six HPMS vehicle classes. Vehicle ty pe

pattern data is used by PPSUITE to divide the hourl y roadway segment volumes to the thirteen MOVES

source types. Similar to the 24-hour pattern data, this data contains percentage splits to each sourc e type

for every hour of the day. The vehicle type patter n data for this inventory is developed from several

sources of information:

# Appendix C-1 10



# • PennDOT truck percentages from the RMS database.

• Hourly distributions for trucks and total traffic c ompiled by PennDOT’s BPR.

• Transit data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database.

• School bus registration data from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database.

The vehicle type pattern data is developed for each county and functional class combination. First, R MS

truck percentages are averaged for all roadways wit hin a county and functional class grouping. Using this

percentage data, the total roadway volume for any s egment is divided to auto and truck vehicle type

categories. The transit data and school bus data i s used to further disaggregate trucks, resulting in four

vehicle groups (light-duty, school, transit, and ot her heavy-duty).

From these groups, MOVES default Pennsylvania count y VMT distributions by source type are used to

divide the four groups into each of the MOVES sourc e types. PennDOT hourly distributions for trucks

and total traffic are used to create source type pe rcentage breakdowns for each hour of the day.

Vehicle Type Capacity Analysis Factors : Vehicle type percentages are provided to the cap acity

analysis section of PPSUITE to adjust the speeds in response to trucks. That is, a given number of la rger

trucks take up more roadway space than a given numb er of cars, and this is accounted for in the speed

estimation process by adjusting capacity using info rmation from the Highway Capacity Manual

.



# Vehicle Fleet and Population Data

The information on the vehicle fleet including the number and age of vehicles has a significant impact on

forecasted start and evaporative emissions within M OVES. The MOVES Model requires the population

of vehicles by the thirteen source type categories. Pennsylvania county vehicle registration data is used to

estimate vehicle population for light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data is split to source typ es

using MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania county popula tion data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT

and the National Transit Database (NTD) is used to estimate county transit bus totals. Other heavy-du ty

vehicle population values are based on VMT for each source type using the vehicle mix and pattern data

discussed previously. The PPSUITE software automat ically applies default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT

and source type population (e.g. the number of mile s per vehicle by source type) to the local VMT

estimates to produce vehicle population.

Vehicle population is forecast based on projected h ousehold and population growth from Woods and

Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growt h rate methodology includes:

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households.

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth ass umptions.

Vehicle Age: Vehicle age distributions are input to MOVES for e ach county by the thirteen source types.

The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicle s in the fleet up to 31 years old. The most recent

available registration download from PennDOT’s Bure au of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has

been used for the inventory. Due to insufficient d ata, only information for light-duty vehicles are u sed as

local inputs; and, heavy-duty vehicles use the inte rnal MOVES2010a national defaults. The registratio n

data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categor ies. As a result, the data was converted to source

types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a emission model.

# Appendix C-1 11



# Environmental, Fuel and Technology Assumptions

Information on environmental, fuel, vehicle technol ogy and other control strategy assumptions were

determined based on a review of MOVES2010a default information by the PaDEP.

Fuel Parameters: The same vehicle will produce different emissions using a different type of gasoline.

Fuel control strategies can be powerful emission re duction mechanisms. The MOVES2010a default fuel

formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel

property information. The gasohol market penetrati on and RVP values were updated for all the counties

. MOVES2010a default data was used for the rest of th e parameters.

Refueling Emissions : MOVES also allows users to calculate refueling em issions, the emissions created

when vehicles are refueled at service stations. Pe nnsylvania includes refueling emissions in its area

source inventory and not in its highway vehicle inv entory. Refueling emissions are not included in th e

highway emissions inventory.

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Param eters: MOVES allows users to vary inputs

depending on the I/M program in place for the area. The inputs include:

• Program start year.

• Stringency level.

• First and last model years subject to the program.

• Waiver rates.

• Compliance rates.

• Program type (test-only, test-and-repair, etc.) and effectiveness.

• Frequency of inspection (annual, biennial).

• Vehicle type coverage.

• Test type (idle, loaded, etc.)

The MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania assumptions wer e reviewed and modifications were made per

actual program parameters.

Environmental Variables: Evaporative emissions are influenced significantly by the temperatures of the

surrounding air. Hourly temperatures have been com piled for each county based on information from

WeatherBank, Inc. to specify temperatures from nine airports within the state. Ozone analysis

temperature and humidity values were determined usi ng the procedures documented in EPA’s technical

guidance. Minimum and maximum temperatures for eac h month were converted to hourly temperatures

using EPA convertors supplied with the MOVES2010a m odel.

A summary of the MOVES related inputs used for the inventory and future year estimates are attached

with the submission.

# Appendix C-1 12



# SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE

The previous sections have summarized the input dat a used for computing speeds and emissions for

Pennsylvania. This section explains how PPSUITE an d MOVES uses that input data to produce emission

estimates. Exhibit 6 summarizes PPSUITE’s analysis procedure used for each of the RMS highway

segments in the state.

Producing an emissions inventory with PPSUITE requi res a process of disaggregation and aggregation.

Data is available and used on a very small scale -- individual 1⁄2 mile roadway segments 24 hours of the

day. This data needs to be processed individually to determine the distribution of vehicle hours of t ravel

(VHT) by speed and then aggregated by vehicle class to determine input VMT to the MOVES emission

model.



# Volume/VMT Development

Before speeds can be calculated and MOVES run, volu mes acquired from RMS must be adjusted and

disaggregated. Such adjustments include factoring to future years, seasonal adjustments, and

disaggregating daily volumes to each hour of the da y and to each of the thirteen MOVES source types.

Determine Future Year Volumes : The RMS database contains up-to-date current year volumes.

However, to conduct a future year analysis, these v olumes must be factored to the year being analyzed.

Growth factors have been prepared for each county a nd functional class grouping. These growth factors

are applied to the base year RMS volumes to obtain future year estimates that can be utilized by

PPSUITE.

Example:

A typical freeway link in the RMS database is I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County,

Pennsylvania. This link has an urban/rural code=1 which indicates the link is in a rural area, and a

functional class=1 indicating a rural freeway.

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) from the RM S database for this link in 2008 is 12,077

vehicles/day.

Growth factors have been developed to factor the 20 08 volume to future years. For example, to

factor the 2008 volume to the year 2014, a growth f actor of 1.282 would yield:

2014 volume = 12,077 vehicles/day x 1.282 = 15,48 3 vehicles/day

# Appendix C-1 13 

# Exhibit 6: PPSUITE Speed / Emission Estimation Proc edure

Data From PPSUITE Input Files PPSUITE Ana lysis Process Data from Roadway Source ( RMS)

The Following is Performed For

Each RMS Roadway Segment

Percent Pattern Distributions Expand to 24 ho urly volumes RMS AWDT Adjusted Vol umes

Apply VMT Adjustments Adjust Volumes for Peak Spre ading

(V/C thresholds for spreading)

Vehicle Type Patterns Disaggregate to Vehicle Type RMS Truck Percentages

Transit Data

School Bus Data

Calculate Link & Signal Capacities Roadway Att ributes

(Lanes, FC code, UR code)

Speed/Capacity Lookup Table

Calculate Link Calculate

Midblock Speed Approach Delay

Apply Post Speed VMT Adjustments

Prepare MOVES CDM Files

VHT by Annual RoadType SourceType Hourly Ramp

Speed Bin VMT Fractio ns Population Fractions Fracti ons

Per VMT

<Optional>



# Off-line File Preparation

Vehicle Age

Distribution Run MOVES Importer

to convert county input data

Hourly into MYSQL data form at

Temps/Humidity

I/M

Parameters

Fuel Run MOVES

Parameters

# Appendix C-1 14



# Seasonal Adjustments : PPSUITE takes the input daily volumes from RMS (w hich represents annual

average daily traffic (AADT)) and seasonally adjust s the volumes to an average weekday in July. This

adjustment utilizes factors developed for each func tional class and urban/rural code. VMT can then be

calculated for each link using the adjusted weekday volumes.

Example:

Again, assume the rural freeway link: I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The

AADT for this link in 2008 is 12,077 vehicles/day.

Seasonal factors have been developed for urban/rura l code and functional class combinations. For

an urban/rural code=1 and a functional class=1, the factor to convert from AADT to an average

weekday in July is = 1.15.

Average Weekday July Volume = 12,077 x 1.15 = 13,88 9 vehicles/day.

Total VMT (daily) for this link is calculated as vo lume x distance. The distance of this link as

obtained from RMS is 0.296 miles.

2008 VMT = 13,889 vehicles/day x 0.296 miles = 4,11 1 vehicle-miles / day.



# Disaggregation to 24 Hours : After seasonally adjusting the link volume, the v olume is split to each hour

of the day. This allows for more accurate speed ca lculations (effects of congested hours) and allows

PPSUITE to prepare the hourly VMT and speeds for in put to the MOVES model.

Example:

To support speed calculations and emission estimate s by time of day, the July weekday volume is

disaggregated to 24 hourly volumes. Temporal patte rns were previously developed from

PennDOT count data and input to PPSUITE. For the I -80 rural freeway link with morning peak

volumes similar to evening peak hours (neutral), th e following temporal pattern is applied:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101357911131517192123



# Hour of DayPercent of Daily



# Using the I-80 segment, typical hourly volumes whic h result include:

8-9 a.m. 6.0% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 833 vehicles/hour (vph)

12-1 p.m. 5.0% x (4,111 vehicle .miles/ 0.296mi. ) = 694 vph

5-6 p.m. 6.3% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 875 vph

# Appendix C-1 15



# After dividing the daily volumes to each hour of th e day, PPSUITE identifies hours that are unreasonab ly

congested. For those hours, PPSUITE then spreads a portion of the volume to other hours within the

same peak period, thereby approximating the “peak s preading” that normally occurs in such over-capacit y

conditions.

Disaggregation to Vehicle Type : EPA requires VMT estimates to be prepared by sou rce type, reflecting

specific local characteristics. As a result, for P ennsylvania’s emission inventory runs, the hourly v olumes

are disaggregated to the thirteen MOVES source type s based on count data assembled by PennDOT in

combination with MOVES defaults.

Example:

Disaggregation of the total I-80 VMT to the various source types would include the following:

Total Volume 8-9 am = 833 vph

Source Type Volume 8-9 am:

Motorcycle 11 0.5% 4 vph

Passenger Car 21 54.7% 456 vph

Passenger Truck 31 27.9% 232 vph

Light Commercial Truck 32 9.3% 78 vph

Intercity Bus 41 0.1% 1 vph

Transit Bus 42 0.1% 1 vph

School bus 43 0.1% 1 vph

Refuse Truck 51 0.0% 0 vph

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 2.2% 19 vph

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 0.3% 2 vph

Motor Home 54 0.1% 1 vph

Combination Short-haul Truck 61 1.9% 16 vph

Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2.6% 22 vph



# Speed/Delay Determination

EPA recognizes that the estimation of vehicle speed s is a difficult and complex process. Because

emissions are so sensitive to speeds, it recommends special attention be given to developing reasonabl e

and consistent speed estimates; it also recommends that VMT be disaggregated into subsets that have

roughly equal speed, with separate emission factors for each subset. At a minimum, speeds should be

estimated separately by road type.

The computational framework used for this analysis meets and exceeds that recommendation. Speeds are

individually calculated for each roadway segment an d hour and include the delays encountered at signal s.

Rather than accumulating the roadway segments into a particular road type and calculating an average

speed, each individual link hourly speed is represe nted in the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by

speed bin file. This MOVES input file allows the s pecification of a distribution of hourly speeds.

For example, if 5% of a county’s arterial VHT opera tes at 5 mph during the AM peak hour and the

remaining 95% operates at 65 mph, this can be repre sented in the MOVES speed input file. For the

model runs, distributions of speeds are input to MO VES by road type and source type by each hour of th e

day; VMT and VHT is accumulated by the same groupin gs for the application of the emission factors to

produce resulting emission totals.

# Appendix C-1 16



# To calculate speeds, PPSUITE first obtains initial capacities (how much volume the roadway can serve

before heavy congestion) and free-flow speeds (spee ds assuming no congestion) from the speed/capacity

lookup data. As described in previous sections, th is data contains default roadway information indexe d

by the urban/rural code and functional class. For areas with known characteristics, values can be dir ectly

coded to the RMS database and the speed/capacity da ta can be overridden. However, for most areas

where known information is not available, the speed /capacity lookups provide valuable default

information regarding speeds, capacities, signal ch aracteristics, and other capacity adjustment inform ation

used for calculating congested delays and speeds. An effort has been made to enhance the RMS data wit h

traffic signal locations using other GIS signal dat a available from PennDOT’s Bureau of Highway Safety

and Traffic Engineering.

Example:

The speed/capacity lookup table is used to obtain i mportant data used for link speed calculations.

For the I-80 link with an urban/rural code = 1 (rur al) and a functional class = 1 (freeway), the

lookup table provides information including the fol lowing:

freeflow speed = 65 mph

capacity = 1800 vph per lane

number of signals = 0 (per RMS linkage to GIS traf fic signal locations)

This information is used along with the physical ch aracteristics of the roadway to calculate the

delay (including congestion) to travel this link du ring each hour of the day:

For example: The I-80 link is calculated to have a travel time, including delay of 17.76 seconds

for the 8-9am hour.

Total travel time, in vehicle hours, for the 8-9am hour is calculated as:

VHT (8-9am) = 17.76 seconds x 833vph / 3600 sec/h r = 4.12 vehicle hours.



# The result of this process is an estimated average travel time for each hour of the day for each highw ay

segment. The average time can be multiplied by the volume to produce vehicle hours of travel (VHT).



# HPMS and VMT Adjustments

Volumes must also be adjusted to account for differ ences with the HPMS VMT totals, as described

previously. VMT adjustment factors are provided as input to PPSUITE, and are applied to each of the

roadway segment volumes. These factors were develo ped from the latest HPMS download (conducted

triennially); however, they are also applied to any future year runs. The VMT added or subtracted to the

RMS database assumes the speeds calculated using th e original volumes for each roadway segment for

each hour of the day.

# Appendix C-1 17 Example:

Using the Luzerne County I-80 rural freeway link ex ample, the daily assigned volume is adjusted

to account for reconciliation with the HPMS VMT. R MS VMT (in AADT) for Luzerne County

rural freeways totals 962,559 vehicle miles in 2008 . HPMS VMT (in AADT) as supplied by

PennDOT and reported to FHWA totals to 990,088 vehi cle miles for the rural freeways. A factor

is developed by dividing the HPMS VMT by the RMS VM T:

HPMS adjustment factor for Luzerne County rural fre eways = 990,088 / 962,559 = 1.029.

This factor is held constant in all future years. As an example, this adjustment is made to the

I-80 freeway link VMT for the 8-9am hour after spee d calculations are made, and produces the

final July weekday VMT for this hour used for Ozone runs.

I-80 Link VMT (8-9am) = 833vph x 0.296 miles x 1 .029 = 254 vehicle miles.



# MOVES Emissions Run

After computing speeds and aggregating VMT and VHT, PPSUITE prepares traffic-related inputs needed

to run EPA’s MOVES software, which is used to estim ate emission factors in grams of pollutant per

vehicle mile and to produce total emissions based o n input VMT to the model. The process uses

MOVES2010a, the officially released emissions model that was obtained directly from EPA.

The MOVES inputs prepared by PPSUITE include the fo llowing:

• Vehicle Type VMT.

• Vehicle Population.

• VMT fractions.

• Average speed distributions.

• Road Type Distribution.

• Ramp Fractions.

These files are text formatted files with a *.csv e xtension. The files are provided as inputs within the

MOVES county data importer. In addition the remai ning MOVES input data including temperatures,

I/M programs, fuel and vehicle ages are prepared ma nually outside of the PPSUITE process.

The MOVES county importer is run in batch mode. Th is program converts all data files into the MYSQL

formats used by the MOVES model. At that point a M OVES run specification file (*.mrs) is created

which specifies options and key data locations for the run. MOVES is then executed in batch mode.

MOVES can be executed using either the inventory or rate-based approaches. For this highway

emissions inventory, MOVES is applied using the inventory-based approach. Under this method, actual

VMT and population are provided as inputs to the mo del; MOVES is responsible for producing the total

emissions for the region. Under the rate-based app roach, MOVES would produce emission factors, after

which PPSUITE would apply the emission factors to t he link data and calculate total regional emissions

.

# Appendix C-1 18



# RESOURCES

MOVES model

Modeling Page within EPA’s Office of Mobile Sources Website

(http://www.epa.gov/omswww/models.htm) contains a d ownloadable model, MOVES users guide and

other information.

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in State

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023 , April 2010.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation Conformity

, and Other

Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09- 046, December 2009.

Traffic Engineering

Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, presents current knowledge and techniques

for analyzing the transportation system.

Traffic Data Collection and Factor Development Repo rt, 2008 Data, Pennsylvania Department of

Transportation, Bureau of Planning and Research.

# Appendix C-1 19



# Highway Vehicle Inventory Glossary

AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic, average of ALL days

.

AWDT: Average Weekday Daily Traffic.

Basic emission rates: MOBILE emission rates based on the applicable Fed eral emission standards and

the emission control technologies characterizing th e fleet in various model years.

Emission rate or factor: Expresses the amount of pollution emitted per uni t of activity. For highway

vehicles, usually in grams of pollutant emitted per mile driven.

FC: Functional code, applied in data management to roa d segments to identify their type (freeway, local,

etc.).

Fuel volatility: The ability of fuel components to evaporate, thus ente ring the atmosphere as pollution.

Fuel volatility is usually measured as Reid Vapor P ressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch. The lower

the RVP, the less volatile the fuel.

Growth factor: Factor used to convert volumes to future years.

HPMS: Highway Performance Monitoring System, PENNDOT’s official source of highway information

and a subset of RMS.

I/M: Vehicle emissions inspection/maintenance programs ensure that vehicle emission controls are in

good working order throughout the life of the vehic le. The programs require vehicles to be tested for

emissions. Most vehicles that do not pass must be repaired.

MOBILE: The model EPA has developed and which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from

highway vehicles.

MOVES: The latest model EPA has developed with which Penns ylvania uses to estimate emissions from

highway vehicles.

Pattern data: Extrapolations of traffic patterns (such as how tra ffic volume on road segment types varies

by time of day, or what kinds of vehicles tend to u se a road segment type) from segments with observed

data to similar segments.

PPSUITE: Post-Processor for Air Quality, a set of programs that estimate speeds and processes MOBILE

emission rates.

RMS: Roadway Management System, a database maintained by PENNDOT from traffic counts and field

visits.

Segment (also referred to as link): Division of roadway in the PENNDOT Roadway Manageme nt

System. Usually represents 0.5 mile segments of ro adway.

UR: Urban/rural code, applied in data management to id entify whether a road segment is urban, small

urban or rural.

# Appendix C-1 20



# VHT: Vehicle hours traveled

.

VMT: Vehicle miles traveled. In modeling terms, it i s the simulated traffic volumes times link length.

Vehicle Type : One of eight types, distinguished primarily by f uel type and/or weight, used in MOBILE

modeling.

Source Type : One of thirteen types, distinguished primarily b y weight, used in MOVES modeling.

Road Type: Functional code, applied in data management to roa d segments to identify their type

(rural/urban highways, rural/urban arterials, etc.)

County Data Manager: User interface developed to simplify importing spec ific local data for a single

county or a user-defined custom domain without requ iring direct interaction with the underlying MySQL

database.

# A P P E N D I X C

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. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 8 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 8 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 3 9 2

. 3 % 1

. 2 5 3

. 0 %

T o t a l 1 6

. 4 1 1 0 0

. 0 % 4 2

. 1 0 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 5

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L a n c a s t e r 1 3

, 1 7 9

, 4 6 1 4 0

. 1 1 4

. 2 9 3 3

. 1 8

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 6

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L a n c a s t e r O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 9

. 2 6 6

. 1 2

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8 8 6

, 5 6 7 6 5

. 0 0

. 2 9 2

. 6 5

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 6 7 6

, 7 8 9 4 3

. 3 1

. 3 1 7

. 5 3

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 2

, 2 7 9

, 3 3 0 5 4

. 9 0

. 7 7 5

. 0 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 6

, 3 3 6

, 7 7 5 3 3

. 7 2

. 6 7 1 1

. 8 1

T o t a l 1 3

, 1 7 9

, 4 6 1 4 0

. 1 1 4

. 2

9 3 3

. 1 8

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 7

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L a n c a s t e r M o t o r c y c l e 6 5

, 5 7 7 0

. 5 % 0

. 4 1 2

. 9 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 1 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 6

, 9 6 8

, 8 5 8 5 2

. 9 % 3

. 9 0 2 7

. 3 % 5

. 3 4 1 6

. 1 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 3

, 5 4 2

, 0 2 5 2 6

. 9 % 6

. 4 8 4 5

. 3 % 8

. 9 7 2 7

. 0 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 1

, 1 9 6

, 8 5 1 9

. 1 % 2

. 0 8 1 4

. 6 % 3

. 3 4 1 0

. 1 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 2 2

, 3 4 1 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 1 % 0

. 3 6 1

. 1 %

T r a n s i t B u s 1

, 9 0 3 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 5

, 6 2 6 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 1 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 1 1

, 3 0 9 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 1 2 0

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 4 1 9

, 7 8 4 3

. 2 % 0

. 4 8 3

. 3 % 2

. 1 8 6

. 6 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 5 6

, 0 5 1 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 3 % 0

. 2 6 0

. 8 %

M o t o r H o m e 2 4

, 9 3 2 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 6 0

. 4 % 0

. 1 3 0

. 4 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 3 6 6

, 1 8 4 2

. 8 % 0

. 2 1 1

. 4 % 4

. 6 2 1 3

. 9 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 4 9 8

, 0 2 0 3

. 8 % 0

. 6 0 4

. 2 % 7

. 7 2 2 3

. 3 %

T o t a l 1 3

, 1 7 9

, 4 6 1 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 4

. 2 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 3 3

. 1 8 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 8

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L a n c a s t e r R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 3

. 8 7 2 7

. 1 % 2 7

. 0 5 8 1

. 5 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 5

. 2 7 3 6

. 9 % 4

. 8 1 1 4

. 5 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 1

. 2 1 8

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 2

. 8 1 1 9

. 6 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 6 9 4

. 8 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 6 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 7 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 3 2 2

. 3 % 1

. 3 1 3

. 9 %

T o t a l 1 4

. 2 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 3 3

. 1 8 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 9

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L a n c a s t e r 1 7

, 7 5 2

, 0 1 0 3 3

. 9 8

. 1 4 1 8

. 5 7

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 0

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L a n c a s t e r O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 5

. 6 0 4

. 8 5

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 4 4 5

, 8 2 1 6 4

. 2 0

. 1 6 1

. 4 6

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4

, 3 2 0

, 0 0 7 4 2

. 3 0

. 5 1 3

. 0 8

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 4 7 1

, 3 7 1 3 2

. 0 0

. 5 4 3

. 1 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8

, 5 1 4

, 8 1 0 2 9

. 3 1

. 3 2 6

. 0 0

T o t a l 1 7

, 7 5 2

, 0 1 0 3 3

. 9 8

. 1 4 1 8

. 5 7

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 1

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L a n c a s t e r M o t o r c y c l e 8 8

, 1 3 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 4 8 5

. 9 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 3 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 9

, 3 6 5

, 6 0 0 5 2

. 8 % 1

. 9 4 2 3

. 8 % 2

. 2 2 1 1

. 9 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 4

, 7 6 0

, 2 5 1 2 6

. 8 % 3

. 5 9 4 4

. 1 % 5

. 3 3 2 8

. 7 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 1

, 6 0 8

, 4 2 3 9

. 1 % 1

. 2 0 1 4

. 7 % 2

. 2 7 1 2

. 2 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 3 0

, 6 0 0 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 2 3 1

. 2 %

T r a n s i t B u s 2

, 5 9 8 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 7

, 6 2 6 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 2 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 1 6

, 5 9 8 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 5 7 4

, 5 6 1 3

. 2 % 0

. 3 0 3

. 6 % 1

. 3 5 7

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 7 6

, 6 4 6 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 % 0

. 1 8 1

. 0 %

M o t o r H o m e 3 4

, 9 5 9 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 5 % 0

. 1 2 0

. 6 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 5 0 5

, 5 0 5 2

. 8 % 0

. 0 9 1

. 1 % 1

. 8 6 1 0

. 0 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 6 8 0

, 5 1 3 3

. 8 % 0

. 4 5 5

. 5 % 4

. 8 6 2 6

. 2 %

T o t a l 1 7

, 7 5 2

, 0 1 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 8

. 1 4 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 8

. 5 7 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 2

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 L a n c a s t

e r C o u n t

y E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L a n c a s t e r R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 1

. 7 9 2 2

. 0 % 1 3

. 7 1 7 3

. 8 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 3

. 0 8 3 7

. 9 % 2

. 8 8 1 5

. 5 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 7 5 9

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 1

. 2 3 1 5

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 9 1 1 1

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 2 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 4 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 3 2 3

. 9 % 1

. 9 7 1 0

. 6 %

T o t a l 8

. 1 4 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 8

. 5 7 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 3APPENDIXC-3LancasterCountyMOVESSampleInputFilesJulyWeekdayMOVESRunSpecificationFileSettingsSamplexmlfileformat<moves><importermode="county"><filters><geographicselections>(SpecifyCountytoberun)<geographicselectiontype="COUNTY"key="42071"description="PENNSYLVANIA-LancasterCounty"/></geographicselections><timespan><yearkey="2018"/><monthid="07"/><dayid="2"/><dayid="5"/><beginhourid="1"/><endhourid="24"/><aggregateBykey="Hour"/></timespan><onroadvehicleselections><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/></onroadvehicleselections><offroadvehicleselections></offroadvehicleselections><offroadvehiclesccs></offroadvehiclesccs><roadtypes><roadtyperoadtypeid="1"roadtypename="Off-Network"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="2"roadtypename="RuralRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="3"roadtypename="RuralUnrestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="4"roadtypename="UrbanRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="5"roadtypename="UrbanUnrestrictedAccess"/></roadtypes></filters><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi"/><agedistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><sourceTypeAgeDistribution>(SpecifyAgeDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\AgeDistribution\10Reg_RepCty\2018\42011_2018_SourceTypeAgeDistribution.csv</filename></sourceTypeAgeDistribution></parts></agedistribution><avgspeeddistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><avgSpeedDistribution>(SpecifyAverageSpeedDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\avgSpeedDistribution.csv</filename></avgSpeedDistribution></parts></avgspeeddistribution><imcoverage><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><imcoverage>(SpecifyI/MParametersfilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\IM\42000_2018_IMCoverage.csv</filename></imcoverage></parts></imcoverage><fuel><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><FuelSupply>(SpecifyFuelSupplydatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\MOVES2010a\42000_2012_FuelSupply.csv</filename></FuelSupply><FuelFormulation>(SpecifyFuelFormulationdatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\42000_FuelFormulation_MOVES2010a.csv</filename></FuelFormulation></parts></fuel><zonemonthhour><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><zoneMonthHour>(SpecifyMeteorologydatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Meteorology\2008\42071_2008_met.csv</filename></zoneMonthHour></parts></zonemonthhour><roadtypedistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><roadTypeDistribution>(SpecifyRoadTypeDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\roadTypeDistribution.csv</filename></roadTypeDistribution></parts></roadtypedistribution><sourcetypepopulation><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><sourceTypeYear>(SpecifyVehiclePopulationdatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\SourceTypePopulation.csv</filename></sourceTypeYear></parts></sourcetypepopulation><rampfraction><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><roadType>(SpecifyRampFractionsdatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\RampFraction\rampfraction_defaults.csv</filename></roadType></parts></rampfraction><vehicletypevmt><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts>(SpecifyAnnualVMTandVMTFractionsfilenamesforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<hpmsVTypeYear><filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hpmsVTypeYear.csv</filename></hpmsVTypeYear><monthvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_MonthFraction\42071_2018_MonthVMTFraction.csv</filename></monthvmtfraction><dayvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_DayFraction\42071_2018_dayvmtfraction.csv</filename></dayvmtfraction><hourvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hourvmtfraction.csv</filename></hourvmtfraction></parts></vehicletypevmt></importer></moves>Samplemrsfileformat<runspec><description><![CDATA[MOVES2010RunSpecCreatedbyCENTRAL4Scenario:LANC2018JULWKDJulyWkdEmissionInventorywithuser'sdata]]></description><modelscalevalue="INV"/><modeldomainvalue="SINGLE"/><geographicselections>(SpecifyCountytoberun)<geographicselectiontype="COUNTY"key="42071"description="PENNSYLVANIA-LancasterCounty"/></geographicselections><timespan><yearkey="2018"/><monthid="07"/><dayid="5"/><beginhourid="1"/><endhourid="24"/><aggregateBykey="Hour"/></timespan><onroadvehicleselections><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/></onroadvehicleselections><offroadvehicleselections></offroadvehicleselections><offroadvehiclesccs></offroadvehiclesccs><roadtypes><roadtyperoadtypeid="1"roadtypename="Off-Network"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="2"roadtypename="RuralRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="3"roadtypename="RuralUnrestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="4"roadtypename="UrbanRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="5"roadtypename="UrbanUnrestrictedAccess"/></roadtypes><pollutantprocessassociations><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/></pollutantprocessassociations><databaseselections><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="early_NLEV"description=""/><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="calevii08"description=""/></databaseselections><inputdatabaseservername=""databasename=""description=""/><uncertaintyparametersuncertaintymodeenabled="false"numberofrunspersimulation="0"numberofsimulations="0"/><geographicoutputdetaildescription="COUNTY"/><outputemissionsbreakdownselection><modelyearselected="false"/><fueltypeselected="false"/><emissionprocessselected="true"/><onroadoffroadselected="true"/><roadtypeselected="true"/><sourceusetypeselected="true"/><movesvehicletypeselected="false"/><onroadsccselected="false"/><offroadsccselected="false"/><estimateuncertaintyselected="false"numberOfIterations="2"keepSampledData="false"keepIterations="false"/><sectorselected="false"/><engtechidselected="false"/><hpclassselected="false"/></outputemissionsbreakdownselection>(Specifyoutputdatabasefilenameforcountybeingrun)<outputdatabaseservername="localhost"databasename="42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mo"description=""/>><outputtimestepvalue="Hour"/><outputvmtdatavalue="true"/><outputshovalue="true"/><outputshvalue="true"/><outputshpvalue="true"/><outputshidlingvalue="true"/><outputstartsvalue="true"/><outputpopulationvalue="true"/>(Specifyinputdatabasefilenameforcountybeingrun)<scaleinputdatabaseservername="localhost"databasename="42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi"description=""/><pmsizevalue="0"/><outputfactors><timefactorsselected="true"units="Hours"/><distancefactorsselected="false"units="Miles"/><massfactorsselected="false"units="Grams"energyunits="MillionBTU"/></outputfactors><savedata></savedata><donotexecute></donotexecute><generatordatabaseshouldsave="false"servername=""databasename=""description=""/><donotperformfinalaggregationselected="false"/><lookuptableflagsscenarioid=""truncateoutput="false"truncateactivity="false"/><internalcontrolstrategies><internalcontrolstrategyclassname="gov.epa.otaq.moves.master.implementation.ghg.internalcontrolstrategies.rateofprogress.RateOfProgressStrategy"><![CDATA[useParametersNo]]></internalcontrolstrategy></internalcontrolstrategies></runspec>