pennsylvania 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

SECRETARY 

November 19, 2012 

Mr. Shawn Garvin 

Regional Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III 

1650 Arch Street (Mail Code: 3RAOO) 

Philadelphia, PA 19103-2029 

5��n 

Dear�ln: 

Enclosed for your approval is a revision to the Pennsylvania State Implementation Plan (SIP) to 

update the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs) in the "Maintenance Plan and Base Year 

Inventory for the Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area" (Maintenance Plan). The 

Maintenance Plan was developed according to Section 17 5A(b) of the Clean Air Act 

(42 U.S.C.A. §7505a(b)). This Maintenance Plan revision was developed in accordance with the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) April 2012 guidance document titled, Pol icy 

Guidance on the Use of MO VES201 0 and Subsequent Minor Revisionsfor State Impl ementation 

Pl an Develo pment, 

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) requests that the EPA use the 

direct final rulemaking process to expedite the approval of this non-controversial SIP revision. 

The Commonwealth has completed its public participation process for this SIP revision. The 

DEP scheduled a public hearing to occur on the final day of the 30-day public comment period, 

which ended October 18,2012, but no persons expressed interest in presenting testimony or 

attending. Therefore, DEP cancelled the hearing. The DEP received no comments on the 

proposed SIP revision. 

The following documents are enclosed for your approval: 

1. The Maintenance Plan revision, which includes an MVEB for the purposes of 

transportation confonnity; 

2. Certification of public participation activities; 

3. A technical support document for the Maintenance Plan revision; and 

4. Appendix C, "Technical Support Document, Mobile Source Highway Emissions 

Inventory," which replaces the Appendix C of the same title in the approved Maintenance 

Plan. 

A paper copy and a disk containing a searchable PDF copy of the revised Maintenance Plan are 

enclosed. I certify that the electronic file is an exact duplicate of the hard copy. 

Rachel Carson State Office Building I P.O. Box 2063 I Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063 

717.787.2814 (J2J Pnnted 011 Recycled Paper �Ct www.depweb.state.pa.us 
Mr. Shawn Garvin - 2- November 19, 2012 

On July 6, 2007, the EPA approved the Commonwealth's request for redesignation as attainment 

for the Lancaster Area and all of the components of the Maintenance Plan, which included 

MVEBs for 2009 and 2018. (72 FR 36889) 

As you know, the EPA updated the model that estimates highway vehicle emissions. The new 

model, the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), better estimates emissions from 

highway vehicles, but MOVES estimates much higher emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), 

and in some cases, volatile organic compounds (VOC) than the Mobile6.2 model used to derive 

the MVEBs in the approved Lancaster Maintenance Plan. The Lancaster County Transportation 

Coordinating Committee (LCTCC), which is responsible for transportation planning in Lancaster 

County, uses those approved MVEBs to satisfy transportation conformity requirements. The 

LCTCC is required to use the most up-to-date version of MOVES for all new transportation 

planning that begins after March 2,2013. Approval of the updated MVEBs in the 

Commonwealth's SIP will allow LCTCC to compare similarly generated emissions used in its 

plans and the MVEBs, which will allow transportation projects to go forward in a timely manner. 

If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact Joyce E. Epps, Director 

of the Bureau of Air Quality, by email atjeepps@pa.gov or by telephone at 717.787.9702. 

Secretary 

Enclosures 
STQ.

21 

COMMONWEALTH OF P(NNSYlVANIA 

REV. 06-2010 INVOICE NO. 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION (To be completed by agency): 

TO:(NAMI! ANO.A!lOIiSClf NliWSPAl'ER� 

Harrisburg Patriot-News Co. 

2020 Technology Parkway 

Suite 300 

MechanicsburQ, PA 17050 .. 

! FEDERAL 1.0. NOJSOC. SEC. NO. 

! 23-1304402 

• ..... • ..... , ... , ....... , .................... " .... '.H._H .................... " •••••• H •••• � ..... �".· 

FROM: (NAME AND ADDRESS OF AGENCy) AGENCY 

Alex Haas 

PA- DEP/BAO 

400 Market Street 

Harri .. huro. PA 171 Oil a 

TYPE OF AD 

TELEPHONE NO. 

717-787-9495 

HEREIMTH IS ENCLOSED COPY FOR PUBLICATION OF ADVERTISEMENT FOR PROPOSALS TO 

r EMPLOY r PURCHASE r CONTRACT r SELL r: rx LEGAL NOTICE 

PUBLISH ADVERTISEMENT (NO, OF TIM MAXIMUM NO. OF LINES DATE 

lx Only 

DATES OF INSERTION e FOR AGE� 

09/14/2012 � � 

You, as vendor, are authorized to publish this advertisement in your ne\NSpaper, subject to the terms of this order, as follows: 

Advertisement to be published in regular advertising columns, no position specified; caption of two lines and signature to be in 

capitals and subject matter and title of officer to be set solid in type regularly used by your ne\NSpaper for public (legal) notice 

advertising; charge to be made at the rate charged to and paid by commercial advertisers for matter similarly set and occupying 

similar space; advertisement to be run in the editions specified above. Vendor agrees that, in the performance of any contract 

awarded to it hereunder. said vendor will not discriminate against any employee or other persons on account of race, COIOf, sex, 

religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discrimination, shall have the right to cancel said contract. Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under 

the terms set forth. 

Return original and two copies (signed by the editor or publisher) to the agency listed above. Proof of advertising 

in the form of a tear sheet must be stapled to original and copies. Original must be notarized. 

Commonwealth to be billed only for actual number of printed lines published. 

SAP FUND COST CENTER GENERAL LEOGER ACCOUNT CODE % 

70J.731�() 00 35;;< :).71 CJC)& 0 V '<04" I ()(!)O(900 

INVOICE (To be completed by publisher): 

DATE OF INSERTION ACTUAL NO. OF PRINTED LINES COST PER LINE TOTAL AMOUNT 

1st Ad 

2nd Ad 

3rdAd 

Commonwe,at nns � 

County of Lu�o� 

Before mer the subscriber, a Notary Public in and for said Cou p 

�o r�I d�d��a��fu���_ 

the �::tll o::c..

l.11� a general ne\NSpaper published at --'-����I-I-.l.

' ,.

� ______ _ 

that the advertisement, Of which tearsheet is attached hereto, was published in the regular advertis' 

in the editions of said newspaper, in aU respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the ommonwealth is not charged 

therefor at a rate higher than is charged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set in a 

similar matter, in said newspaper. 

; �tL 

. 

Swom a ubsc ibed fore me thi � / r / I 

day of ' wt \---=-

-:2�O -:",-:r";;t;:---

My commission expires 

-This affidavit must be made by the Owner, Publisher, or the designated agent of the owner or publisher, 

COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA 

Notarial Seal 

Sherrie L. Owensl Notary Public 

lower Paxton Twp., Dauphin County 

My COmmission Expires No\!. 261 2015 

MEMBER, PENNSYLVANIA ASSOCIATION OF NOTARIES 
The Patriot-Nev's Co. 

2020 Techhology Pkwy 

Suite 300 

Mechanicsburg, PA 17050 

Inquiries - 717-255-8213 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

RACHEL CARSON STATE OFFICE BUILDING 

400 MARKET STREET 

HARRISBURG PA 17105 

STATEMENT 

[be patriot -News 

Now you know 

ALL CHARGES ARE NET 

AD ORDER # DATE EDITION ADDTL. INFO. TYPE OF CHARGE AMOUNT 

233427 DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL 0002228920 09/14/12 REGULAR 

233427 DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL 0002228920 09/14/12 REGULAR 

BOLD TEXT CHARGE 

BASIC AD CHARGE 

$4.00 

$413.80 

AFFIDAVIT CHARGE $5.00 

TOTAL: $422.80 

This is not an invoice. Please do not remit payment from this Statement. 

An invoice will be generated at the end of the month ..... Thank you. 

NOTE This Statement replaces the Order Confirmation which we previously sent with Proofs of Publication 
The Patriot-NevIs Co. 

2020 Technology Pkwy 

Suite 300 

Mechanicsburg, PA 17050 

Inquiries - 717-255-8213 

[be patriot-News 

Now you know 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

RACHEL CARSON STATE OFFICE BUILDING 

400 MARKET STREET 

HARRISBURG 

-proposed ��I�I�ij't�the suit� 

Implementation PICln for the Motor 

Vehlele Eml.ssli,\ns Budgets' In the 

; 7; Loncaster'Elght.Hour Ozone ' 

Maintenance Area; Public Hearing 

, The Department Is revlslr\\J the Motor 

Vehicle .Emlsslons Bud91ltsfor the 

Lancaster Elgn�,Hour ozon&';· 

Mall.l,en<:ince Area; The revised 

PA 17105 

THE PATRIOT NEWS 

THE SUNDAY PATRIOT NEWS 

Proof of Publication 

Under Act No. 587, Approved May 16,1929 

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, County of Dauphin} ss 

uly sworn according to law, deposes and says: 

budgef�1 once Gpprovedpy the U.S. 

En lro. �mel\tal Protecthm Age�cy 

(EeA)�·W,mexpedlte f�ture: 

tra�sportatlonplannln� tor fhEt 

Lancaster Area�:The U;S, E;Pl:< 

developed a new_�omputer model; the 

MOll)rVehlcie emls,sl�ns.;SIn:llJlator ' 

(M()VES) that.estl."at.�s.�.!:Y1'�slon!l:from 

hI9Ilwav.v.hlclellm(ir:e:qg:ui'atelw The. 

approved m.a1ntenance plan for. the: , 

LQ.rlc:as,�r·AreQlISed fh� f��ll\er EPA-

.,:approY�i:nO:del?l)A(lblle6:.Jor:estlmCltlng \ccountant of The Patriot News Co., a corporation organized and existing under the laws of the 

f' hlgf"lwayvehlcles:eml�'(lns�: EOOlssfons , 

1 ��fJtW:��l�l�of:n

a

n\:f/���t�;.;���s, ,'ania, with its principal office and place of business at 2020 Technology Pkwy, Suite 300, in the 

��� l1 w�atW(J�

f

���r �,� 

Inty of Cumberland, State of Pennsylvania, owner and publisher of The Patriot-News and The Sunday 

'. theorlglnal mafntensmce;plan:"{The , f general circulation, printed and published at 1900 Patriot Drive, in the City, County and State :TrG�sport(J�fC)n Conformltvregufatfon, 

:; r: �;:J� �:\�� ;g� ns lews and The Sunday Patriot-News were established March 4th, 1854, and September 18th, 1949, 

do n�t��c:.eelj Ute rriotorvel1lc1ei ..

.

.

.

. '. " ,�en continuously published ever since; ['.eITlISslo�s I)ud�etln the area�s approved� '

. aripnc:able'�HP; Byuslng slmlrar .

. ' .•.. 

. 

ice or publication which is securely attached hereto is exactly as printed and published in their regular 

. mtjijellng In J�Qn!>portatlon plann,�g and' . 

i'the.SIPa m�t�x�allstl�cornparlll!l.n ; unity Weekly editions which appeared on the date(s) indicated below, That neither she nor said 

r �ari �

�����:I:�r�iu:r';T'����!'ii� � subject matter of said printed notice or advertising, and that all of the allegations of this statement as 

: ·delciyeQ� ,2:·rC;:'/T '�,:",Y.' ,

.

, 

! . Thl$��oj:Josalfs.�vdllabfeonthe cter of publication are true; and 

! =;���J�:1gfi��1:�«(�oci�"Alr 1al knowledge of the facts aforesaid and is duly authorized and empowered to verify this statement on 

! :;!��t1:.�pm�?i��.�.t,ttI����t��r-:��s �o. aforesaid by virtue and pursuant to a resolution unanimously passed and adopted severally by the 

r Tjje·;DeParttne"ns.��t<:.lo9P.

u tommei'\tori 

irectors of the sal'd Company and subsequently duly recorded in the office for the Recording bl�c: of Deeds this Slg reVls/.oi\ and f 

l ehang��))1C1detoth�motor.v�blele , Jphin in Miscellaneous Book "MJJ! Volume 14, Page 317, i emlsslon�bud�et I" .. the Lanca�ter Eight..' 

: Hour:O�one Malriteo.ance The:" •. , Plan. 

? Dep'ar�m�nfWIllI:1()ld:ap'ub(l� hf3ar1n{,l,t(l 

, ree.�lve: co.mm��tspn the proposal. on . 

,Thursday} October: 18,2012. at 10 c.i,m: In.' ran on the dates shown below: 

· RO,om Susq!Jehantia A at the ' ' , . 

Pe'nnsyfvanlo Department of 

Erivlrc)l'Jmental Pr�tectIon's� 

Southcentral RegIonal Of1I<:&, 909' .. 

Elmert�� �v:�nu

e� !'larrlsb.urg� PA' ...•.. 

171lp .... ,. ....... , .

' ,. . 

.... .' H 

.. • , • 

. ••• ' 

. Personswlshlng to present testimony 

at the hearing should confQct Alex Haas, 

'P.O" Box 8468; Harrisburg, PA 17105, 

[(7ti5I��{�f'�W�,�hdd���;;�Jf�i,::�;';��,F�·· l:resefV,e;a(tlme�?iIf, byOefobe'r no 1�.2012;: 

i person I'lcisexpressed Inier�st Iflt�nt to.' .• 

! t&$ttfvOtthe' heCl'rl1'l9, the arln lII be, 

� ca�c:elffl<J':)W't�esses " ', s!l01J1d. k�p i test(!"n(lnyto. t�m ItIlnutesc:r.�.�shoU:I� '.:' ;::' i:, ptovlde,tvJ(tWrI,tfe,I1'Copleso1.llerr;<� ' " 

StQf�rrient aHhe-hearlng; 

persoos-ytlfh (I dlsablrltYc.WIt�,w(sh to 

· attend ttlehear'ngand:.requl.r�a'r :\i;·<:. 

:; ouxlllaty:afct.,serVlce dt;;Q!lil!f?�·" jS'''':· 

'accommodatrontoPQrtlclpcrte In the : 

proceedlng shouldeonttlct Afe)(Haosat ' 

.(717) 78779495.o.r alehoQs@pcMtOv' .

. ;TDD 

users rriaycont(J.ctJh�AT&T Rfl�QY'>:: ' 

Service at (800}'654-5984 to dlscuss how 

the DePartment can bestaccommo atEi '" 

thelr.!'Ie.��,:; ; . ,Je,:;:"': ' " ".c.< . ' • •..• ; ,. c" . 

'".The De�adment must receive.: ..

...... ); , 

comments n� later than October 18,2012. . 

! ��!�fr�:rZ:r�J������:��� the.,.' 

Division of Air Resource Management, 

Bureau of Air Quality, P,O. Box 8468, 

Harr(sborg, PA 1710S- �_or . ;' .

'

, 

· Qshu'man@stQte.pO�US{JUsenLQncasf�r,\ . MVEa RevisIons" asthe'maUadd{-essee 

· orJn the sublect Une. . . . . 

, 

, ". ,MICHAEL L. KRANCER, 

Secretary: 

COM MONWt;AL TH OF PENf'l

SYLVANIA 

NotaTi€l! Seal 

Sherrie L Owens, Notary Public 

lower Paxl;on Twp.} Dauphin County 

My Commission ExpIres Nov. 26,2015 

MEMBER, PENNSYLVANIA ASSOCIA110N OF NOTARIES 

September 14,2012 
(;J

MM()N\M:ALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA 

!';rO·5:'1 REV ()6.2010 INVOICE NO. 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE 

TO: (N4M� ANI) AOOIES!> Of NEWSP;U>EI'Il 

lancaster New Era 

P.O. Bo>< 1328 

Lancaster, PA 17608 

r 

lxOnly 

0911412012 

FROM: (NAME ANI) ADDReSS OF AGENCY) AGENCY 

Alex Haas 

PA-DEP/BAQ 

400 Market Street 

I4;HrI�hllrn PA 171()C\ D 

You. as vendor, are authorized to publish thh 

Advertisement to be published in regular adver 

capitals and subject matter and title of officer t 

advertising; charge to be made at the rate ch 

similar space; advertisement to be run in the���'�I:;� 

awarded to it hereunder. said vendor win not di� 

religious creed. ancestry. age or national origin:oJ�

if 

crimination. shall have the n���� �'l�

 

TELEPHONE NO. 

717-787·9495 

LEGAL NOTICE 

" 

the terms set forth. 

Return original and LYVI.,I

·:All.ioI 

in the form of a tear sheet 

�!&l.H�����i�;�����

�:lbHsher

) 

to the agency listed above." Proof of advertising 

�Jij��?Jf�t����;i���::li:piE�s. Original must be notarized. 

Commonwealth to be bil 

1st Ad 

2nd Ad 

3rd Ad 

Commonwealth of Penns 

County of LaMe a,5ie!�. 

published. 

V1641 1000000 

COST PER LINE TOTAt. AMOUNT 

/0. (jD 

.-

Before me, the SUbscrjbe �t� �ii���l���� ,personally came �V1V{.1 L . .5-f�L 

who being d�y swornj dot� ��������������������������� 

the _______ 

. Ltct

CeStv- U�P¥(;/! % 

that the advertisement. of �ppliiCa.�II�'Slfr·fJ'f mlnrmt6i��;i:J�?i�fm�ir published in the regular. advertising columns of said newspaper 

in the editions of said invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not chargee 

therefor at a rate higher thar a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set In c 

similar matter, in said newsp 

My commission expires 

·This affidavit must be made by the e owner or publisher. 
Michael Krancer Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL

Volume I

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on 

the MOVES2010a Model

Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

November 2012

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

717-787-9495
This page is intentionally left blank.
i

Table of Contents

VOLUME I

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF GROUND-LEVEL OZONE........................................................1

1.1. 8-HOUR OZONE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS ................................................................ 1

1.2. LANCASTER AREA AND OZONE SIP REVISIONS ........................................................................................... 2

1.3. EPA REQUIREMENTS FOR DEVELOPING AND REVISING MAINTENANCE PLANS ............................................. 4

Table 1: Lancaster Area 2011 Design Values ................................................................................................ 5

1.4. MAINTENANCE PLAN DEMONSTRATION AND MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS ................................... 6

Table 2: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a ..................................................... 6

1.5. NON-MOBILE SOURCE INVENTORY REVIEW................................................................................................ 6

Table 3: Revised Lancaster Area NOx Emissions from 2004 to 2018 ............................................................... 8

Table 4: Revised Lancaster Area VOC Emissions from 2004 to 2018 .............................................................. 8

2. SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS..............................................................................................................9

2.1. POINT SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS ........................................................................................................ 9

2.1.1. CONTROL MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 9

2.1.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE LANCASTER OZONE MAINTENANCE PLAN ......................................................... 9

2.1.3. POINT SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 9

Table 5: 2009 Point Source Emissions –....................................................................................................... 10

Maintenance Plan Estimates Versus Actual Emissions.................................................................................. 10

Table 6: 2018 Point Source Emissions -....................................................................................................... 10

Maintenance Plan Estimate Versus Revised 2018 Emissions......................................................................... 10

2.2. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS ...................................................................................................... 11

2.2.1. CONTROL MEASURES ............................................................................................................................ 11

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan............................................................ 11

and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009 .................................................................................................... 11

Table 8: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory Updates from 2009 to 2018

.................................................................................................................................................................... 12

2.2.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE LANCASTER OZONE MAINTENANCE PLAN ....................................................... 12

2.2.3. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN MARAMA 2011 REGIONAL MODELING EFFORT ................................................... 12

2.2.4. MARCELLUS SHALE EMISSIONS .............................................................................................................. 13

2.2.5. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION ................................................................................................. 13

2.3. NONROAD SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS ............................................................................................... 13

2.3.1. CONTROL MEASURES ............................................................................................................................ 13

2.3.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES............................................................................................................................. 14

2.3.3. NONROAD SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION .......................................................................................... 14

2.4. HIGHWAY SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS ................................................................................................ 14

2.4.1. CONTROL MEASURES ............................................................................................................................ 14

2.4.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES............................................................................................................................. 15

Table 9: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a................................................................... 15

2.4.3. MOBILE SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION ............................................................................................. 16

3. SAFETY MARGINS ...................................................................................................................................... 16

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET FOR TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ......................... 16
ii

5. CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................................... 17

VOLUME II

1. TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT – SEE TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR VOLUME II

TABLES

TABLE 1: LANCASTER AREA 2011 DESIGN VALUES .......................................................................................... 5

TABLE 2: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS CALCULATED WITH MOVES2010A........................................ 6

TABLE 3: REVISED LANCASTER AREANOX EMISSIONS FROM 2004 TO 2018 .................................................... 8

TABLE 4: REVISED LANCASTER AREA VOC EMISSIONS FROM 2004 TO 2018..................................................... 8

TABLE 5: 2009 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS – MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS ACTUAL .................... 10

TABLE 6: 2018 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS – MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS REVISED 2018

EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................... 10

TABLE 7: COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTENANCE PLAN AND INVENTORYUPDATES

FROM 2002 TO 2009 ..................................................................................................................... 11

TABLE 8: COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTENANCE PLAN AND INVENTORYUPDATES

FROM 2009 TO 2018 ..................................................................................................................... 12

TABLE 9: REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES 2010A.......................................................... 15

TABLE 10: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS.......................................................................................... 17

APPENDICES

APPENDIX C: MAINTENANCE PLAN UPDATE FOR THE LANCASTER (LANCASTER COUNTY) EIGHT-HOUR

MAINTENANCE AREA: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET REVISIONS USING 

MOVES2010A – SEE APPENDIX C TABLE OF CONTENTS
1

1. Introduction and Overview of Ground-Level Ozone

Maintaining concentrations of ground-level ozone below the health-based 8-hour ozone national

ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is important because ozone is a serious human health 

threat and can cause damage to important food crops, forests, and wildlife.

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse health effects for both 

healthy people and those with existing conditions including: difficulty breathing, chest pains, 

coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. Ozone exposure can exacerbate bronchitis, 

heart disease, emphysema, and asthma, and reduce lung capacity. Asthma is a significant and 

growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can aggravate asthma, causing more asthma 

attacks, increased use of medication, more medical treatment and more frequent visits to hospital 

emergency clinics. Because ozone pollution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends 

time outdoors in the summer may be affected, particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers 

and people exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active 

outside during the summertime when ozone levels are highest. 

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detrimental pollutants known to affect vegetation, 

causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in the United States. Ozone 

interferes with photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and sunlight to food. 

Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other pollutants and harsh weather. It 

damages the foliage of trees and other plants, ruining the landscapes of cities, parks, forests, and 

recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone concentrations result in reductions in 

wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of the Northeast United States. There is strong 

scientific evidence showing that current levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in 

sensitive species such as soybean, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozoneaffected soybeans in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculated to fall between $199 million 

and $346 million. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national 

crop yield losses due to ozone in excess of $1 billion annually. One of the key components of 

ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in sensitive waterways, such 

as the Chesapeake Bay.

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions 

between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the presence of 

sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so 

ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through September. The 

primary sources of man-made VOCs and NOx, the ozone precursors, are the evaporation of fuels 

and solvents (gasoline and consumer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power 

plants and non-road engines), and industrial processes.

1.1. 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards

In July 1997, the EPA established identical primary and secondary 8-hour ozone NAAQS at a 

concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), based on the 3-year average of the annual fourthhighest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations measured in the ambient air at each 

monitored location. Implementation of the standards was delayed due to litigation. In June 

2004, EPA designated the Lancaster Area, which consists of all of Lancaster County, as 
2

nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, based on ambient air quality monitoring data

collected from 2001-2003. The Lancaster Area was one of seventeen areas in Pennsylvania 

designated as an 8-hour ozone nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

The Lancaster Area was initially classified as a “moderate” 8-hour ozone nonattainment area. In 

July 2004, Pennsylvania requested that the EPA reclassify the Lancaster Area to a “marginal” 8-

hour ozone nonattainment area in accordance with Section 181(a)(4) of the Clean Air Act 

(CAA). A state may request reclassification if the design value in the nonattainment area is five 

percent greater or five percent less than the level on which the classification is based. The EPA 

approved the reclassification request for the Lancaster Area on September 22, 2004 (69 FR

56697).

On March 12, 2008, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone to 0.075 ppm averaged over 8 hours 

to provide even greater protection for children, other at-risk populations and the environment 

against the array of ozone-induced adverse health and welfare effects. See 73 FR 16436 

(March 27, 2008). The EPA had begun a voluntary reconsideration of the 2008 ozone NAAQS 

in January 2010 to set a more protective 8-hour ozone standard (75 FR 2938), but withdrew that 

reconsideration at the request of the President of the United States on September 2, 2011, leaving 

the 2008 ozone standard in place. On May 21, 2012, the EPA published a final rule for the 2008 

8-hour ozone NAAQS, implementing the nonattainment area classification approach, attainment 

deadlines, and revoking the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the purpose of transportation conformity

(77 FR 30160). The EPA will be promulgating an additional implementation rule for the 2008 

ozone NAAQS, which is scheduled to be proposed during 2013, that will address State 

Implementation Plan (SIP) requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and other issues. The 

ozone standard is currently undergoing its statutory five year review and it is anticipated that 

EPA will promulgate an ozone standard between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm in the near future. 

Pennsylvania could have additional areas that do not meet this anticipated revised ozone 

standard.

States will need to submit SIP revisions to demonstrate how they will bring the nonattainment 

areas into attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Nevertheless, the promulgation of the new 

ozone standard does not affect the need for this revision to the approved maintenance plan for the 

Lancaster Area (Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan) under the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

1.2. Lancaster Area and Ozone SIP Revisions

On September 20, 2006, the Department submitted a SIP revision to the EPA requesting 

redesignation of the Lancaster Area to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The Department

concurrently submitted a SIP revision (2006 Lancaster SIP revision) to the EPA that included a 

maintenance plan based on the attainment and continued long-term attainment of the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS for the Lancaster Area (Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan), the 2002 baseline 

inventory, and motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) to be used for purposes of 

transportation conformity. The Department submitted supplemental inventory material to the 

EPA on November 8, 2006. The EPA’s transportation conformity regulation, found at

40 CFR Part 93, Subpart A, requires that the transportation plan, transportation improvement 

program (TIP), and projects not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP must be 

consistent with the MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP. This criterion is satisfied if the state 

can demonstrate that emissions of the pollutants or pollutant precursors for which the area is in 
3

nonattainment or maintenance, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or 

deemed adequate by the EPA, are less than or equal to the MVEBs established in the applicable 

SIP or SIP submission. The metropolitan planning organization for the area, the Lancaster 

County Transportation Coordinating Committee, ensures that emissions resulting from its TIP 

are less than the MVEBs in the SIP by completing periodic conformity determinations, which are 

subject to public comment. The EPA approved all of the components of the 2006 Lancaster SIP 

revision, including the MVEB, on July 6, 2007 (72 FR 36889) and redesignated the Lancaster 

Area to attainment.

The approved MVEBs included in the approved Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan were 

estimated using the EPA-approved highway emissions model in effect at that time, the Highway 

Mobile Source Emission Factor Model version 6.2 (Mobile6.2). The MVEBs in the Lancaster 

Ozone Maintenance Plan included emission budgets for both NOx and VOC. On March 2, 2010, 

the EPA released a new mobile source emissions model called the Motor Vehicles Emissions 

Simulator 2010 (MOVES2010). The EPA provided a two-year grace period to transportation 

planning organizations, ending March 2, 2012, during which the older Mobile6.2 emissions 

model could be used to model emissions for transportation projects in order to meet the 

requirements of transportation conformity (75 FR 9411 (March 2, 2010)). In September 2010, 

EPA approved a revised version of the MOVES2010 model. On October 13, 2011, the EPA 

proposed a one-year extension to the two-year grace period because states and localities needed

more time to transition to using MOVES2010a and to develop the technical capacity to use 

MOVES2010a (76 FR 63575). The EPA finalized the extension on February 27, 2012

(77 FR 11394). The extension allows states and localities to better evaluate whether SIPs and 

MVEBs, or transportation plans and TIPs, should be revised for future conformity 

determinations. The 1-year extension provides additional time that may be critical for 

nonattainment and maintenance areas to learn and apply MOVES2010a for regional conformity 

analyses. Any new transportation conformity analysis started after March 2, 2013, must use the 

most up-to-date version of MOVES.

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the model and its associated guidance in April 2012. 

EPA considers both MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b to be minor revisions to MOVES2010 

that do not significantly affect the results of modeling criteria pollutant estimates for highway 

vehicles. References to “MOVES” in the remainder of this document relate to all of the 

approved versions of the model. The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this SIP revision 

was already developed significantly using MOVES 2010a. By the time that version 2010b was 

issued, using MOVES2010b would have been impractical.

Compared to Mobile6.2, the MOVES model estimates higher NOx emissions and in some areas

higher VOC emissions being produced by highway vehicles, depending on the model’s inputs. 

Emissions estimated using MOVES will always be greater for transportation planning than the 

emissions accounted for in the MVEBs, which were estimated using Mobile6.2. As a result, 

comparing emissions from the MOVES model to the MVEB included in approved maintenance

plan would not allow local and regional transportation planning agencies to meet the 

requirements of transportation conformity; the emissions budget in the maintenance plan would 

be exceeded and transportation planning could be adversely affected. This is why the 
4

Department is updating the MVEBs for the Lancaster Area using the newer EPA-approved 

emissions model, MOVES2010a.

It is important to mention that higher emission estimates calculated by MOVES2010a do not 

mean that emissions from vehicles actually increased. The MOVES model better estimates 

emissions that are already being produced by vehicles. Consequently, the ability of the area to 

maintain the standard will not be affected by using estimates produced by the new model.

1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans

The 2006 Lancaster SIP revision redesignation request is consistent with the September 4, 1992,

EPA memorandum written by John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, 

entitled, Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment. For the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department produced an emissions inventory for NOx, 

VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment year, which included ambient air 

quality monitoring data that showed emissions that met the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the Lancaster 

Area. The inventory was based on a “typical summer day,” as required by the EPA. The 

Department developed an emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrated that the area would 

meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS for a 10-year period following redesignation of the area to 

attainment. The emissions inventory for 2018, a maintenance year, showed that emissions of 

NOx, VOC, and CO in the Lancaster Area would not exceed emissions that occurred in 2004. 

The maintenance year is a year at least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate 

that emissions over a 10-year period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the standard. 

A state does this by showing that emissions in the maintenance year are less than emissions in 

the attainment year.

An emissions inventory in the 2006 Lancaster SIP revision showed that emissions in 2009, the 

interim year, did not exceed emissions in 2004, the attainment year. The 2009 and 2018 

inventories both considered future growth projected from a 2002 baseline year, and included 

emission reductions from permanent and enforceable control measures.

This SIP revision updates highway emissions estimates using the newer MOVES2010a model. 

The Department need not update emissions estimates for area and nonroad sources for several 

reasons. For one, the growth assumptions for emissions from area and nonroad sources in the 

2006 Lancaster SIP revision for the year 2009 were greater than the documented growth that 

occurred from 2002 to 2009. Additionally, newer, updated emission growth projections to 2018 

for area and nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the 

2006 Lancaster SIP revision. Company-reported point source emissions are used in this SIP 

revision to revise the projected 2009 emissions in the 2006 Lancaster SIP revision. Also in this 

SIP revision, linearly interpolated 2018 point source emission estimates derived from the MidAtlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) 2011 effort for modeling ambient 

particulate matter concentrations are used to revise 2018 projected emissions in the Lancaster 

Ozone Maintenance Plan.

Recent ambient air quality monitoring results for the Lancaster Area demonstrate continued 

attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0.08 parts per million, with rounding 84 parts per 

billion), as shown in Table 1.
5

Table 1: Lancaster Area 2011 Design Values

Monitor 2009

4

th

highest

2010

4

th

highest

2011

4

th

highest

3-Year

Average

or Design 

Value1

Lancaster

42-071-0007 69 ppb 82 ppb 78 ppb 76 ppb

Lancaster Downwind 

42-071-0012 66 ppb 82 ppb 85 ppb 77 ppb

 

1

A “design value” is the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration, averaged over three years.

The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled, Policy Guidance 

on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation Plan 

Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes, (MOVES2010 guidance) EPA 

420-B-12-010, April 2012. This guidance describes requirements for SIP revisions. For 

maintenance demonstrations, areas can have a revised motor vehicle emissions inventory and 

budget using MOVES without revising emissions for other sectors included in the applicable SIP 

or completing additional modeling if:

The SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when the previous motor vehicle 

emissions inventories are replaced with inventories generated by MOVES2010a; and,

The state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor 

vehicle sources continue to be valid and minor updates do not change the overall 

conclusions of the SIP.

The EPA further states that if both of the criteria are met, the state can simply re-submit the 

original maintenance plan with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, using the most 

current version of the MOVES model. However, if either criterion is not met, the emissions 

categories in the maintenance plan that have changed must be brought up to date. 

Since one of the criteria listed above is not met for point source emissions, this SIP revision 

includes information addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES2010 policy 

guidance, listed here:

Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS approved maintenance plans continue to

meet applicable requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, as 

calculated by the most recently approved MOVES model, and recalculation of the 

attainment year, interim year and maintenance year MVEBs with the latest planning 

assumptions, including documentation of the updated assumptions;

Review of the point, area, and nonroad emissions inventories for the interim year and 

maintenance year to determine if growth and control strategy assumptions have changed 

and, if so, development of an analysis to determine if these changes affect the conclusion 
6

of the maintenance plan that air quality will remain compliant with the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS; and

Assessment to confirm excess emissions exist and the quantification of these excess 

emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the MVEBs.

1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Table 2 shows the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NOx and VOC MVEBs calculated using the 

latest planning assumptions for the Lancaster Area using MOVES2010a. Assumptions used in 

the MOVES2010a modeling, including model inputs, growth assumptions and modeling 

methodology, are provided in Appendix C. Highway vehicle emissions show a clear, downward 

trend.

Table 2: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a

Year

NOx

Emissions 

(tons/day)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/day)

2004 Attainment Year 42.10 16.41

2009 Modeled Emissions 33.18 14.29

Conformity Portion of 

Safety Margins1 2.00 0.00

2009 Interim Year Budget 35.18 14.29

2018 Modeled Emissions 18.57 8.14

Conformity Portion of 

Safety Margins 2.00 2.00

2018 Maintenance Year 

Budgets 20.57 10.14

1.5. Non-Mobile Source Inventory Review

The EPA states, in its MOVES2010 guidance, that revisions to existing SIPs and budgets must

continue to meet applicable requirements under the Clean Air Act. A maintenance plan revised 

to take into account new emission estimates due to an update in the highway model must 

demonstrate that attainment of the standard continues, even with updated control measures and 

 

1 A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given 

pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further 

progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR §93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for 

use by the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) or Department of Transportation (DOT) as a safety margin to 

be used for transportation projects. See 40 CFR §93.124(a) for application of a safety margin.
7

growth estimates. The basis for this SIP revision includes increases in the maintenance plan’s

NOx and VOC emission estimates for the attainment, interim and maintenance years resulting

from revising highway emissions using MOVES instead of the Mobile6.2 model, and accounting 

for emissions of point, area, and nonroad sources using the latest planning assumptions and 

growth estimates. Total emissions in the years 2009 and 2018 cannot exceed the emissions in 

the 2004 attainment year inventory. The Department concludes that the Lancaster Area will 

continue to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS because total emissions of NOx

and VOC in the interim year and maintenance year will be less than the 2004 attainment year 

inventory for those two pollutants. Developing a revised highway inventory for carbon 

monoxide (CO) is unnecessary for this SIP revision because CO emissions decrease using 

MOVES in place of the Mobile6.2 model.

Growth and control strategy assumptions have changed for all of the emission categories since 

the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. The changes in these assumptions have 

generally decreased forecasted emissions in future years. A severe economic recession occurred 

since the maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed, falling short of 

the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. More controls of source 

categories have been implemented at both the federal and state level. Area and nonroad NOx and 

VOC emission inventories are not being revised for the interim and maintenance year in this SIP 

revision. The point source emission inventory is being updated. The Department compared 

updated growth estimates with growth assumptions and growth estimates in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. That analysis is included below. More detailed information can be found in 

Volume II: Technical Support Document.

Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Commonwealth will require the Department to update 

growth and strategy assumptions of non-motor vehicle sources. A number of areas in the 

Commonwealth are home to newly built point sources, such as electric generating units (EGUs). 

Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale gas development, which has increased area source 

emissions. The EPA developed a rule in 2011 to limit the transport of NOx and sulfur dioxide,

which could change projected emissions of point sources. See, 76 FR 48208 (Aug. 8, 2011), and 

later revisions. Some owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and 

regulatory developments by closing coal-fired electric generation units or by switching fuels (to 

natural gas) at their facilities. The Department has considered these developments and 

concluded that these changes do not apply to the Lancaster Area. 

Tables 3 and 4 show that emissions in the future interim and maintenance years will not exceed 

overall emissions from all sources in 2004, the attainment year, even though highway emissions 

are greater in the Lancaster Area when modeled by MOVES than when the emissions were

estimated by Mobile6.2 in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. Actual emissions for the 

2009 point sources and updated 2018 projected point source emissions were included in the SIP 

revision inventory. Projected area and nonroad category emissions from the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan are used for 2009 and 2018 in this SIP revision. Projected area and nonroad 

sources do not need to be updated because emissions from these categories have not increased 

appreciably since the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was submitted to EPA. Attainment of 

the 1997 ozone standard is maintained by showing revised actual and projected growth for 2009 

and 2018 does not increase overall future emissions of the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan.

This SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 
8

Plan forecast greater growth than what actually occurred or will occur in the major source 

category segments.

A small portion of the difference between attainment and maintenance emissions has been set 

aside as a transportation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in 

highway vehicles (See Table 2). The highway vehicle emissions reflect inclusion of that safety 

margin.

Table 3: Revised Lancaster Area NOx Emissions from 2004 to 2018

NOx in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total

2004 3.89 2.60 13.20 42.10 61.79

2009 3.20 2.80 10.80 33.18 49.98

Δ(2004-2009) -0.79 0.20 -2.40 -8.92 -11.91

2018 3.60 2.90 6.80 18.57 31.87

Δ(2004-2018) -0.29 0.30 -6.40 -23.53 -29.92

Table 4: Revised Lancaster Area VOC Emissions from 2004 to 2018

VOC in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total

2004 8.10 24.40 17.30 16.41 66.21

2009 5.50 24.20 15.00 14.29 58.99

Δ(2004-2009) -2.60 -0.20 -2.30 -2.12 -7.22

2018 7.74 27.20 11.90 8.14 54.98

Δ(2004-2018) -0.36 2.80 -5.40 -8.27 -11.23
9

2. Source Category Emissions

2.1. Point Source Category Emissions

2.1.1. CONTROL MEASURES

At the time of the development of the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, many large sources 

were affected by the requirements of the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). Pennsylvania 

implemented NOx control programs, including implementation of CAIR, which control NOx

from large industrial boilers, internal combustion engines, electric generating units, and cement 

kilns. None of the sources subject to these regulations are located in the Lancaster Area. 

2.1.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE LANCASTER OZONE MAINTENANCE PLAN

Two annual point source inventories using historical emissions data reported to the Department 

by point source facilities were included in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. The 

Department developed an emissions inventory of point sources for calendar years 2002 and 

2004. The 2002 point source emissions inventory represents a time when the Lancaster Area did 

not meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The 2004 point source inventory showed emissions that 

occurred during 2004, the attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the 

District of Columbia, were prepared for MARAMA by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc.

(MACTEC). Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the 

point source inventories in their SIPs. Emission projections were prepared for years 2009 and 

2018.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future, the point source inventory is divided into 

two subsectors – the EGU sector and the non-EGU sector. Different projection methods were

used for those two sectors. For the EGU sector, the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union 

(MANE-VU) effort used the Integrating Planning Model (IPM) to project future electric 

generation, as well as to calculate the impact of control programs on future emission levels. As 

stated above, the Lancaster Area has no EGU emission sources. For the non-EGU sector, growth 

factors were developed by using the EPA’s Economic Growth Analysis System Version 5.0

(EGAS 5.0). The U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace 

default values in EGAS 5.0. Also, state-supplied population, employment, and other emission 

projection data were used to update and enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values.

2.1.3. POINT SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

Projected NOx and VOC emissions for 2009 in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan are being 

revised with actual emissions for point sources in 2009, because the actual emissions are readily 

available and allow easy comparison between the projected emissions in the maintenance plan 

and the actual emissions. The Department assessed point source emissions by comparing the 

actual emissions inventory data submitted to the Department by owners of point sources for 2009 

to the estimated 2009 NOx emissions from point sources in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan. The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan overestimated point source emissions for 2009.

Table 5 shows that the projected point source emissions of NOx in the maintenance plan were 0.9 

tons per day more than actual 2009 point source emissions and the projected point source 
10

emissions of VOC in the maintenance plan were 3.2 tons per day more than actual 2009 point 

source emissions. Actual emissions of NOx and VOC declined significantly from 2004 to 2009,

even when compared to the slow growth in emissions forecasted in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan.

Table 5: 2009 Point Source Emissions –

Maintenance Plan Estimates Versus Actual Emissions

2009 Emissions NOx 

(tons/day)

VOC 

(tons/day)

Maintenance Plan 

Estimate

4.1 8.7

Actual 3.2 5.5

The Department will revise the 2018 inventory in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan by 

using emissions from the inventory developed by MARAMA. Because the updated inventory

produced by MARAMA uses different years for the baseline and projected inventories, and 

different surrogates to estimate growth than what was used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan, comparison between growth factors used to produce the two inventories is difficult. The 

MARAMA projected inventory estimated emissions for the years 2017 and 2020 from a baseline

2007 emissions inventory. In order to obtain emission estimates for the 2018 maintenance year, 

a straight line interpolation between 2007 and 2020 was used. Projected NOx and VOC 

emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA estimates are still well below the 2018 projected 

emissions in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, as shown in Table 6, and thus show that 

projected emissions in 2018 will fall below the 2004 (attainment year) emission levels.

Table 6: 2018 Point Source Emissions -

Maintenance Plan Estimate Versus Revised 2018 Emissions

2018 Emissions NOx 

(tons/day)

VOC 

(tons/day)

2018 Maintenance Plan 

Estimate

4.6 11.0

2018 Revised Estimate

(MARAMA Inventory)

3.6 7.7
11

2.2. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS

2.2.1. CONTROL MEASURES

The area sector includes, but is not limited to, such diverse emissions source categories as:

surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent use; residential heating; open burning; traffic 

line painting; and landfill gases. Emissions are produced from a wide number of sources for 

which actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. The Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan relied upon many different types of socioeconomic indicators that served as 

surrogates to actual sales data to estimate emissions from the area source sector when actual 

sales data was not available. Population, employment, fuel use and housing data are some of the 

surrogates used to estimate emissions. Methodologies for estimating some emissions from some 

area sources were updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan but, because the emissions change similarly for the attainment, interim and 

maintenance years, the changes will not result in a significant difference between the attainment 

year’s emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions. As can be seen from Table 7, with the 

exception of commercial boilers using natural gas, emissions would decrease from area sources,

since actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 and projected growth rates from 2009 to 2018 are 

lower or nearly the same when compared to the growth rates used in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. The metrics presented in Table 7 serve as growth surrogates for most source 

classification codes (SCCs) in the area source category in the maintenance plan, which account 

for a large majority of the emissions in the area source inventory.

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan

and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009

Metric Actual 

Growth 

(Census Data)

Maintenance 

Plan 

Surrogate 

Estimates 

(2006)

2009 Population * 1.0621 1.0918

2009 Total Employment 0.9868 1.1321

2009 Commercial Boilers Natural 

Gas 

1.0456 1.0106

2009 Commercial Boilers, Distillate 0.9807 1.0731

2009 Commercial Boilers, Coal 0.7488 1.0481

*Growth for the year 2009 is computed from 2002 to 2009.
12

Table 8: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan 

and Inventory Updates from 2009 to 2018

Metric Revised 

Growth 

from 

MARAMA 

Inventory 

(2009-2018)*

Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2009-2018)*

Population 1.0509 1.1081

Employees 1.0113 1.1499

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9799 0.9988

Anthracite, Commercial 1.0055 0.9865

All Combuster Types, Distillate Oil, 

Residential

0.9615 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial

1.0154 1.0521

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential

1.0034 1.0181

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018. Due to different 

time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more recent inventory data, 

growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method allows for a direct comparison.

2.2.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE LANCASTER OZONE MAINTENANCE PLAN

Area source emission growth factors were developed by using the default configuration in EGAS 

5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel 

use projections. In this SIP revision, the AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were used to 

replace AEO2004 forecasts. State-supplied population and employment data were used to 

replace default data, when the state-specific data was available. Growth estimates were 

represented by growth factors for each area SCC for each county.

County-level population data for 2000, and projections for 2010 and 2020 from the Pennsylvania 

State Data Center, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/, were provided to derive growth factors. This data 

were interpolated to obtain growth factors for projecting emissions from 2002 to 2009 for SCCs 

that are population based. General employment data for 21 counties or areas for 2000, and 

projections to 2010 and 2020, were used. This data were also interpolated to estimate growth 

factors for projecting from 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area source categories. For all other 

area source categories, AEO2005 forecasts were used for projecting emissions from area source 

fuel combustion, when available. If AEO2005 forecasts are not available, EGAS 5.0 default 

factors were used.

2.2.3. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN MARAMA 2011 REGIONAL MODELING EFFORT

The development of growth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort for area 

sources used one or a combination of the following as surrogates for growth: AEO2010, 

population data, or employment data. A direct comparison cannot be made between the growth 
13

factors based on AEO2005 or population in the original maintenance plan and this SIP revision 

which uses growth factors from MARAMA’s 2011 regional modeling effort. As years pass, 

different inventory methodologies are developed. This SIP revision uses the best possible 

method to compare emissions inventories that use differing methodologies. (See Volume II: 

Technical Support Document). The MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort developed growth 

factors for most SCCs using AEO2010 or county level population. Employment data was 

derived from North American Industry Classification System to the state level. Since 

employment data to the county level was not available from the MARAMA 2011 modeling, state 

employment data was applied for all SCCs and counties in this SIP revision. The recession 

reduced employment which fell short of the projections in the maintenance plan for the year

2009. Starting from depressed employment levels in 2009, it is unlikely that employment 

projections in the maintenance plan will be exceeded in reality in 2018, even if employment 

growth recovers to normal levels in the near future. Revised growth estimates show this to be 

the likely case.

2.2.4. MARCELLUS SHALE EMISSIONS

Significant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale natural gas in some 

Pennsylvania counties has occurred since the 2006 Lancaster Area Ozone Maintenance Plan was 

submitted to the EPA by the Department. Area source emissions result from the placement of 

drilling equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The Lancaster Area has not 

experienced any Marcellus Shale development and is not expected to experience any of this 

development in the future.

2.2.5. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

The Department demonstrated (See Table 8) that it is reasonable to assume that emissions 

growth for area sources that has and is occurring is less than the growth forecasted in the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan for both NOx and VOC for maintenance years 2009 and 

2018. The Department compared growth estimates used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan and the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort. Emissions of NOx and VOC from the 

area source sector have not increased as a result of any new activity or update in methodology, or 

by using a new data source to estimate emissions. Therefore, no revisions to the area source 

sector for NOx or VOC emissions are necessary. 

2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions

2.3.1. CONTROL MEASURES

The nonroad category contains many different types of equipment. The Department used 

NONROAD2005 for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. All versions of the EPA’s 

NONROAD Model estimate emissions for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad

engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, 

farming, and industrial applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities,

including aircraft, locomotive, and commercial marine vessel activities, are not estimated in the 

NONROAD Model but are in the nonroad category. In the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan,

the NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate emissions of nonroad vehicles and engines. 

The model went through one major revision since it was used for the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new version of 
14

the model incorporates two reduction strategies that affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad 

sector:

Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine 

engines (See Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and 

Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder, 

73 FR 25098, May 6, 2008); and

The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule 

(See Control of Emissions From Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment, 

73 FR 59034, October 8, 2008).

For the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department modified files in the NONROAD 

Model, when state specific data was available, that affect emission categories such as residential 

lawn and garden and recreational marine vessels. 

2.3.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan as a result of additional controls mentioned above, and other tier level controls 

that have been phased in since 2004 for engines used in the nonroad sector. The fleet turnover 

that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer 

equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower 

emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s, and will continue to do so for the next 10 

years. Emission reductions occurred across all segments of the nonroad category, including 

construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment. 

Furthermore, the recession significantly lowered construction, railroad, aircraft, and industrial 

activity, and, consequently, lowered emissions. Even if growth returns to pre-recession levels, 

overall growth will likely remain lower than what was predicted in the maintenance plan up to 

the 2018 maintenance year. 

2.3.3. NONROAD SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

The Department demonstrated that it is reasonable to assume that emissions growth for nonroad 

sources that has and is occurring is less than the growth forecasted in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan for both NOx and VOC for maintenance years 2009 and 2018. The 

Department compared growth estimates between what was used in NONROAD2005 and 

NONROAD2008a, and took into account fleet turnover and the effects of the recession. 

Emissions of NOx and VOC from the nonroad source sector have not increased as a result of any 

new activity or update in methodology. Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for 

NOx or VOC emissions are necessary.

2.4. Highway Source Category Emissions

2.4.1. CONTROL MEASURES

Assumptions for vehicle emissions standards have not changed significantly from when the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was submitted to EPA. In 2008, Pennsylvania began 

implementation of California emission standards, which are incorporated by reference in 
15

Pennsylvania regulations, for passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and diesel-powered heavy-duty 

trucks. In January 2012, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved significant 

revisions to its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger 

cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty vehicles. The amendments, referred to as LEV III, will 

become effective in model year 2015 for criteria pollutants and in model year 2017 for 

greenhouse gases, once the amendments are approved by California’s Office of Administrative 

Law (OAL). Once the CARB LEV III amendments are approved by the California OAL, the 

requirements will be automatically incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean 

Vehicles Program, to the extent the amendments apply to Pennsylvania’s program. EPA is 

preparing to propose revisions to its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas 

emissions from on-road vehicles, but has not yet published a proposed rulemaking. When EPA 

publishes a proposed rulemaking relating to new vehicle emission standards, the proposed rule 

will be analyzed as to its effect on future year emission estimates of NOx or VOC.

2.4.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES

Overall emissions from highway vehicles will continue to decrease as new vehicles take the 

place of older vehicles during normal fleet turnover. Fleet turnover is the greatest driver in 

lowering emissions from highway vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. This is, in part, a result of the recent recession and its 

lingering effects. Other factors have some impact on emissions from the highway source 

category such as changes in fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, and the fleet mix of vehicles. The 

fleet age is also increasing as people operate their vehicles for a longer period of time. This will 

reduce the rate of fleet turnover and the reductions expected in emissions. It is difficult to 

compare vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in Pennsylvania between the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan and this SIP revision because the method for estimating VMT has changed. 

Nationally, there was a slight decline in VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles 

in Pennsylvania that are light-duty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers are purchasing more 

passenger cars than light-duty trucks. Passenger cars tend to have lower emissions.

Both VOC and NOx emission estimates were developed using MOVES2010a and the latest 

planning assumptions. Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 attainment year, as well as 

the 2009 and 2018 maintenance years. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the original 

maintenance plan have been included in Table 9 to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

Table 9: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC 19.75 14.33 7.77 16.41 14.29 8.14

NOx 32.33 22.32 8.99 42.10 33.18 18.57

Table 9 shows the MOVES model estimates NOx emissions in 2009 and NOx and VOC 

emissions in 2018 that exceed the MOBILE6.2-derived emissions in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. This would cause transportation planning emissions estimates using MOVES

to exceed the MVEBs. The updated NOx and VOC MVEBs provided in Table 2 will help ensure 

that the Lancaster Area can demonstrate transportation conformity using MOVES2010a, once 
16

the conformity grace period expires, while the emissions estimates still demonstrate that the 

Lancaster Area demonstrates attainment with the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

2.4.3. MOBILE SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

The SIP revision includes revised MVEBs for Lancaster County using updated highway vehicle 

emissions estimates derived from MOVES. Appendix C of this SIP revision replaces the 

corresponding sections of the original Appendix C in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

Appendix C of this SIP revision describes the highway modeling methodology necessary to 

produce accurate emission estimates from the MOVES model.

3. Safety Margins

Tables 3 and 4 show that the emissions in the maintenance years, even when using conservative 

estimates in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, for point, area and nonroad sectors, provide 

a significant safety margin for continued maintenance. 

Therefore, a portion of those safety margins is being allocated to transportation projects to help 

ensure that any future planning assumption updates will not negatively impact the area’s ability 

to demonstrate transportation conformity. Adequate safety margins will also defer the need for 

future SIP revisions, where the purpose of the SIP revision is only to update numbers and not to 

document any actual emissions reductions to the atmosphere.

To help ensure that the transportation conformity process is not needlessly delayed, a 2.0 ton/day

safety margin for NOx has been applied to the MVEBs in 2009 and a 2.0 ton/day safety margin

for NOx and VOC has been applied to the MVEBs in 2018. All indications are that the 2009 and 

2018 emission estimates made for point, area and nonroad sources in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan are higher than any actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates for 2018 

in this SIP revision. Table 2 quantitatively shows that these safety margins will continue to 

allow the area to remain well below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventory cap, thereby 

ensuring that future air quality will continue to meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budget for Transportation Conformity

The Department proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that 

transportation emissions do not impede clean air goals for almost the next decade. The 

information in Table 10, once EPA approves this SIP revision for the purposes of transportation 

conformity, will establish MVEBs for Lancaster County.
17

Table 10: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Calendar Year Pollutant

NOx VOC

2009 31,914.8 kilograms/summer day

35.18 tons/summer day

12,963.7 kilograms/summer day 

14.29 tons/summer day

2018 18,660.8 kilograms/summer day 

20.57 tons/summer day

9,198.9 kilograms/summer day 

10.14 tons/summer day

5. Conclusion

By examining actual and projected emissions, increased controls for all emissions categories, and 

evidence that actual emissions growth for point source, area source, and nonroad source 

categories has been less than the projected emissions growth in the approved Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, the Department has shown that the conclusion in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan that the Lancaster Area will continue to maintain attainment of the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS remains valid, even after updating the highway emissions using the new EPA-approved 

MOVES model. Updating NOx or VOC emissions in the MVEBs will not negatively affect the 

Lancaster Area’s ability to maintain attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS. In this revision, the 

Department has updated emissions of NOx and VOC that were included in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan for point and highway sources. Emissions of area and nonroad sources were 

not updated from the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan because it was shown that growth in 

emissions for those sources decreased or were unaffected.
Michael Krancer Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL 

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document 

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on 

the MOVES2010a Model

Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

November 2012

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

717-787-9495
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i

Contents

Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1

Point Source Category Emissions ............................................................................................................1

Point Source Emissions for 2009 .........................................................................................................2

Point Source Category 2018 Emissions................................................................................................7

Area Source Category Emissions........................................................................................................... 17

Area Source Category 2009 Emissions............................................................................................... 17

Area Source Category 2018 Emissions............................................................................................... 18

Nonroad Source Category Emissions..................................................................................................... 20

Highway Source Category Emissions...................................................................................................... 21

Tables

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated versus Actual 2

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOx and VOC Point Source Inventory for the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 2

Table 3: Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018 8

Table 4: Revised Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non-EGU 

Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 baseline and 2020 projected inventories) 8

Table 5: MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected NOx Point Source Inventories 

for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 9

Table 6: MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected VOC Point Source Inventories for the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 13

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to 

Forecasted Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) 17

Table 8: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to 

the Forecasted Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) 19 

Table 9: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 21
ii

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1

Introduction

This Technical Support Document provides detailed information on the categories of point, area, 

nonroad, and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds 

(VOC) emission estimates and assumptions. Data shown in this document were used in the State 

Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory – Lancaster EightHour Ozone Nonattainment Area, which is hereafter referred to as the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Other data and assumptions outlined in the Technical Support Document are 

also used in this State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision to the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan that is entitled, “State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle 

Emission Budget Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model – Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Area”, which is hereafter referred to as the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan 

revision. The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan revision demonstrates that replacing highway 

emissions estimates using the MOVES Model instead of the Mobile6 Model to generate 

emissions estimates will not cause emissions from all sources in the maintenance years to exceed 

all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical Support Document will describe how 

emission estimates and emission growth rates that were used in both the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan and the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan revision were developed for all 

source categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway).

Point Source Category Emissions

Point sources included emissions from large commercial, institutional, and industrial facilities, 

such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and large heating and 

electric generating units (EGUs). Emission projections used in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 states, including 

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia, for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management 

Association (MARAMA) by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future year projections were 

developed by MACTEC so that states could use the projections as inventories in their SIPs. 

Estimates were prepared for years 2009 and 2018, and took into consideration growth in 

economic activity and additional controls.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the states’ ozone maintenance 

plans, the point source inventory of emissions is divided into two subsectors – the EGU sector 

and the non-EGU sector. Different projection methods are used for those two sectors. The 

Lancaster Area has no EGU emission sources. The Lancaster Area contains many non-EGU 

point sources. For the non-EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using The United 

States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 

Version 5.0. U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace default 

values for combustion sources in EGAS 5.0. Also, state-supplied population, employment, and 

other emission projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not exist or if the statesupplied data was deemed better than values given by EGAS 5.0.
2

Point Source Emissions for 2009

Table 1 gives totals of NOx and VOC emissions for both 2009 projected emissions in the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 Lancaster Area emissions reported to the 

Department after the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed.

1

 Table 1 demonstrates 

that the assumptions that point source emissions in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan for 

2009 were overestimated for both NOx and VOC. Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NOx and VOC 

emissions from the individual facilities in the Lancaster Area. The annual emissions were 

divided by 365 days in a year to obtain daily emissions.

Actual Emissions for 2009

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated Versus Actual

Emissions for 2009 NOx 

(tons/day)

VOC 

(tons/day)

Emissions in Maintenance Plan 4.1 8.7

Actual Emissions (actual 

reported annual emissions in 

Table 2 divided by 365 days)

3.2 5.5

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOx and VOC Point Source Inventory for the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD 

INC/MILL 119.8 182.2

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE 

LLC/EPHRATA --- 4.1

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA

GRINNELL 12.4 27.2

420710082 AQUATIC CO/W DONEGAL 

TWP 1.0 7.3

 

1

Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 2009
3

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/FLOOR PLT 9.4 67.9

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT

67.0 157.4

420710509 B & S 

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE ---- 22.5

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & TANK 

CO/RAPHO ---- 12.0

420710104 BIRD IN HAND 

WOODWORKS/E HEMPFIELD ---- 2.6

420710084 BOLLMAN HAT CO/MAIN ST 

FACILITY 1.3 4.4

420710306 BUCK CO INC/QUARRYVILLE 1.4 72.7

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS 

LANCASTER PLT 2.1 14.1

420710837 CHESTER CNTY SOLID 

W/LANCHESTER LANDFILL

0.5 4.9

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD 

DIVISION PLT 1.3 7.5

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW 

HOLLAND 7.0 74.0

420710283 COLUMBIA GAS TRANS 

CORP/MARIETTA 14.1 0.5

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD 

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 2.6 70.5

420710468 DART CONTAINER CORP/E 2.7 83.9
4

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

LAMPETER WHSE

420710087 DART CONTAINER 

CORP/LEOLA 12.2 416.8

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY ---- 11.3

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES ---- 11.1

420710508

GRANGER ENERGY OF 

HONEY BROOK 

LLC/CAERNARVON TWP 

LANCASTER C

16.4 32.8

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY 

TWP PLT ---- 19.3

420710502 GUYON IND INC/MANHEIM ---- 3.8

420710086 HIGH STEEL STRUCTURES 

INC/LANCASTER FACILITY 1.6 29.0

420710111

INTELLIGENCER 

PRINTING/INTELL PRINTING 

LANCASTER CNTY

0.6 16.2

420710094 JL CLARK INC/LANCASTER 2.5 29.3

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST 

HEMPFIELD 30.7 13.0

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY 

PROD/LEOLA ---- 12.2

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD 

SPECIA/EAST LAMPETER ---- 7.8

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/ 

LANCASTER 569.8 1.6
5

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

420710890

LANCASTER CNTY 

SWMA/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

0.2 4.2

420710680 LANCASTER HEALTH 

ALL/LANCASTER GEN HOSP 9.7 0.2

420710610 LANCASTER 

LAB/LANCASTER 1.7 10.8

420710099 LANCASTER TERM 

CORP/LANCASTER TERM ---- 8.2

420710486 LIPPERT COMPONENTS 

I/DENVER ---- 4.0

420710437 MANHEIM AUTO 

AUCTION/MANHEIM 13.5 12.4

420710470 MARK LINE IND OF PA 

/EPHRATA ---- 1.0

420710014

MARS SNACKFOOD US 

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN 

CANDY PLT

10.2 66.9

420710723 MCNEIL PPC INC/LITITZ 7.4 4.5

420710494 MGS INC/CONST DENVER ---- 5.8

420710456 MORGAN CORP/EPHRATA PLT 0.2 2.4

420710307 MT JOY WIRE CORP/MT JOY 5.1 4.6

420710115 NESSCO ENT LLC DBA 

MERIDIAN PROD/EAST EARL ---- 15.8

420710270 NEW HOLLAND CUSTOM 

WOODWORK LTD/NEW 

---- 13.5
6

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

HOLLAND

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK 

TEK/NEW HOLLAND ---- 22.7

420710469 PARADISE CUSTOM 

KITCHENS/PARADISE ---- 2.2

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST 

COCALICO TWP PLT 8.5 31.1

420710350

PPL RENEWABLE 

ENERGY/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

17.6 3.5

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT 

INC/E EARL TWP ---- 18.8

420710092 QUALITY CUSTOM 

CABIN/EARL 0.4 17.1

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE 

DIV LANCASTER WEST 8.4 75.3

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS 

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST 26.3 165.8

420710317

RR DONNELLEY FINANCIAL 

INC/LANCASTER FINANCIAL 

PRINTING DIV

4.6 24.2

420710348 SIGNATURE CUSTOM 

CABINETRY/EPHRATA 0.1 11.4

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE 

HILL ---- 4.6

420710077 TEXAS EASTERN 

TRANS/MARIETTA 127.1 11.2
7

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOx 

(tons per 

year)

VOC 

(tons per 

year)

420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S 

CANDIES 9.2 17.9

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS 

INC/TERRE HILL PLT

38.0 2.2

420710091 VERSATEK ENT LLC/LITITZ ---- 2.4

420710089

WELLBORN HOLDINGS 

INC/LUXURY CUSTOM 

CABINETRY NEW HOLLAND

0.4 10.6

Total Actual Annual Emissions 1164.9 1995.0

Point Source Category 2018 Emissions

Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between what was assumed in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumptions for emissions growth. Both sets of 

assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each 

revision to the maintenance plan. If the revised assumptions for growth are less than what was 

assumed in the original maintenance plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the 

maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised 

growth in some types of point source are higher, and in some types, the growth is lower, 

emissions growth cannot be compared to show the new assumptions still maintain the ozone 

standard. Then, a projected emissions inventory needs to be developed and compared. For the 

Lancaster Area, a projected inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be developed to 

show maintenance with the standard.

The 2018 point source inventory for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed for

MARAMA by MACTEC. More recently, an emissions inventory of all emission source 

categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway) was developed by MARAMA and MACTEC for 

a regional modeling effort. Table 3 and Table 4 compare total emissions of NOx and VOC 

produced by non-EGU sources in the Lancaster Area with the recently developed inventories. 

During the last year, MARAMA developed inventories for the baseline year of 2007 and 

projected years of 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025.2 The difference in the inventory years for the 

 

2 MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Julie McDill, Mid-Atlantic Regional 

Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012.
8

inventory used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan and new MARAMA/MACTEC 

inventory development efforts did not allow for easy comparison of growth factors used for 

projecting emissions. Projected emissions in 2018 were estimated for the maintenance plan 

revisions using straight-line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline inventory and 

the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory using the following equation: 

2018 emissions = 2007 Emissions + ((2020 Emissions – 2007 emissions) *(2018-2007) ÷ 

(2020 - 2007))

Emission projections of non-EGU point sources in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan were 

overestimated for the year 2018 when compared to newer emissions data derived by MARAMA. 

See Tables 3 and 4.

Table 3: Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018

Year NOx

Emissions 

(tons/year)

NOx

Emissions 

(tons/day)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/year)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/day)

2018 1719.7 4.6 4097.2 11.0

Table 4: Revised Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non-EGU 

Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories)

Year NOx

Emissions 

(tons/year)

NOx

Emissions 

(tons/day)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/year)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/day)

2007 (Baseline) 1147.3 3.1 2691.8 7.4

2020 (Projected) 1346.2 3.7 2850.7 7.8

2018 

(Interpolated) 1315.6 3.6 2826.3 7.7
9

Table 5 and Table 6 show actual 2007 and projected 2020 facility emissions of NOx and VOC 

for non-EGU point source in the Lancaster area. 

Table 5: MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected NOx Point Source Inventories 

for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 Baseline 

NOx

Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOx Emissions

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD 

INC/MILL PROD

133.9 186.0

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE 

LLC/EPHRATA

0.0 0.0

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA 

GRINNELL 16.1 19.6

420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/FLOOR PLT 13.2 18.7

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT 65.3 92.7

420710509 B & S 

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE 0.0 0.0

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & TANK 

CO/RAPHO 0.0 0.0

420710306 BUCK CO INC/QUARRYVILLE 2.2 2.2

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS 

LANCASTER PLT 1.9 1.9

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD 

DIVISION PLT 2.1 2.1

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW 

HOLLAND 13.7 14.8

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD 

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 3.3 3.3
10

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 Baseline 

NOx

Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOx Emissions

420710468 DART CONTAINER CORP/E 

LAMPETER WHSE 1.8 2.6

420710087

DART CONTAINER 

CORP/LEOLA 26.0 36.0

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY 0.4 0.4

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES 0.0 0.0

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY 

TWP PLT 0.0 0.0

420710086 HIGH STEEL 

STRUCTURES/LANCASTER 1.5 1.7

420710111

INTELLIGENCER 

PRINTING/INTELL PRINTING 

LANCASTER C

1.4 1.5

420710094 JL CLARK INC/LANCASTER 2.3 3.2

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST 

HEMPFIELD 30.6 43.1

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY 

PROD/LEOLA 0.0 0.0

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD 

SPECIA/EAST LAMPETER 0.0 0.0

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/ 

LANCASTER 569.7 601.7

420710890

LANCASTER CNTY 

SWMA/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

0.3 0.3

420710610 LANCASTER 1.6 1.8
11

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 Baseline 

NOx

Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOx Emissions

LAB/LANCASTER

420710082 LASCO BATHWARE INC/W 

DONEGAL TWP 1.2 1.2

420710437 MANHEIM AUTO 

AUCTION/MANHEIM 0.1 0.1

420710014

MARS SNACKFOOD 

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN 

CANDY PLT

15.2 18.9

420710115 NESSCO ENT LLC DBA 

MERIDIAN PROD/EAST EARL 0.0 0.0

420710270

NEW HOLLAND CUSTOM 

WOODWORK LTD/NEW 

HOLLAND

0.0 0.0

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK 

TEK/NEW HOLLAND 0.0 0.0

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST 

COCALICO TWP PLT 7.4 8.2

420710099 PGH TERM CORP/LANCASTER 

TERMINAL 0.0 0.0

420710350

PPL RENEWABLE 

ENERGY/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

18.2 19.2

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT 

INC/E EARL TWP 0.1 0.1

420710092 QUALITY CUSTOM 

CABIN/EARL 1.2 1.8

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE 11.9
12

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 Baseline 

NOx

Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOx Emissions

DIV LANCASTER WEST

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS 

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST 25.6 30.5

420710317

RR DONNELLEY & 

SONS/LANCASTER 

FINANCIAL PRINTING D

4.0 4.1

420710348 SIGNATURE CUSTOM 

CABINETRY/EPHRATA 0.0 0.0

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE 

HILL 0.0 0.0

420710077 TEXAS EASTERN 

TRANS/MARIETTA 130.0 164.7

420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S 

CANDIES 11.8 12.0

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS 

INC/TERRE HILL PLT 36.1 39.2

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD 

INC/MILL PROD 133.9 186.0

Total Annual NOx Emissions 1147.3 1346.2
13

Table 6: MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected VOC Point Source Inventories 

for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

VOC 

Emissions

2020 

Projected 

VOC 

Emissions

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD 

INC/MILL PROD 252.5 257.8

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE 

LLC/EPHRATA 17.3 17.3

420710066 ANVIL INTL/COLUMBIA FKA 

GRINNELL 44.6 44.8

420710035 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/FLOOR PLT 72.3 79.8

420710036 ARMSTRONG WORLD IND 

/MARIETTA CEILING PLT 164.8 233.1

420710509 B & S 

WOODCRAFTS/QUARRYVILLE 20.0 20.0

420710123 BIGBEE STEEL & TANK 

CO/RAPHO 17.9 19.5

420710306 BUCK CO INC/QUARRYVILLE 55.1 55.1

420710113 CADMUS JOURNAL SVC/CJS 

LANCASTER PLT

23.7 23.7

420710063 CLARK FILTER/HEMPFIELD 

DIVISION PLT 21.9 21.9

420710073 CNH AMERICA/NEW 

HOLLAND 150.7 149.4

420710106 CONESTOGA WOOD 

SPECIALTIES/EAST EARL 102.0 102.0

420710468 DART CONTAINER CORP/E 95.1 143.1
14

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

VOC 

Emissions

2020 

Projected 

VOC 

Emissions

LAMPETER WHSE

420710087 DART CONTAINER 

CORP/LEOLA 706 706.5

420712096 DONSCO INC/MT JOY 11.3 11.3

420710109 FENNER INC/FENNER DRIVES 18.8 18.8

420712109 GREINER IND INC/MT JOY 

TWP PLT 17.6 18.3

420710086 HIGH STEEL 

STRUCTURES/LANCASTER 33.3 36.2

420710094 JL CLARK INC/LANCASTER 33.1 36.1

420710294 KELLOGG USA INC/EAST 

HEMPFIELD 26.3 26.9

420710499 KEYSTONE QUALITY 

PROD/LEOLA 16.1 16.4

420710463 KEYSTONE WOOD 

SPECIA/EAST LAMPETER 10.6 10.6

420710145 LANCASTER CNTY RRF/ 

LANCASTER 1.9 2.0

420710890

LANCASTER CNTY 

SWMA/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

4.0 4.2

420710610 LANCASTER LAB/LANCASTER 10.6 12.3

420710082 LASCO BATHWARE INC/W 

DONEGAL TWP 21.2 21.2

420710437 MANHEIM AUTO 11.5 12.1
15

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

VOC 

Emissions

2020 

Projected 

VOC 

Emissions

AUCTION/MANHEIM

420710014

MARS SNACKFOOD 

LLC/ELIZABETHTOWN CANDY 

PLT

75.8 76.0

420710270

NEW HOLLAND CUSTOM 

WOODWORK LTD/NEW 

HOLLAND

12.8 12.8

420710103 NEXANS INC DBA BERK 

TEK/NEW HOLLAND

32.6 32.6

420712119 PEPPERIDGE FARM INC/EAST 

COCALICO TWP PLT

24.4 24.4

420710099 PGH TERM CORP/LANCASTER 

TERMINAL 11.1 12

420710350

PPL RENEWABLE 

ENERGY/FREY FARM 

CRESWELL LDFL

3.7 3.9

420710331 PREMIER CUSTOM BUILT 

INC/E EARL TWP 21.2 21.2

420710092 QUALITY CUSTOM 

CABIN/EARL 50.2 50.2

420710122 RR DONNELLEY & SONS /NE 

DIV LANCASTER WEST 95.8 95.8

420710080 RR DONNELLEY & SONS 

CO/NE DIV LANCASTER EAST

246 246.4

420710317

RR DONNELLEY & 

SONS/LANCASTER FINANCIAL 

PRINTING D

29.1 29.1
16

EPA AFS 

Number

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

VOC 

Emissions

2020 

Projected 

VOC 

Emissions

Emission 

Reduction 

Credits

RR DONNELLEY & SONS CO 0.0 16.0

420710348 SIGNATURE CUSTOM 

CABINETRY/EPHRATA

25.4 25.4

420710510 STYLECRAFT CORP/TERRE 

HILL

11.1 11.1

420710077 TEXAS EASTERN 

TRANS/MARIETTA

6.9 7.6

420710121 THE HERSHEY CO/Y & S 

CANDIES

15.7 15.9

420710772 VALLEY PROTEINS INC/TERRE 

HILL PLT 1.8 1.9

420710089

WELLBORN HOLDINGS 

INC/LUXURY CUSTOM 

CABINETRY NEW

21.9 21.9

420710071 ALUMAX MILL PROD 

INC/MILL PROD 252.5 257.8

420710093 AMER LAFRANCE 

LLC/EPHRATA 17.3 17.3

Total Annual VOC Emissions 2691.8 2850.7
17

Area Source Category Emissions

The area source category include emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use, 

residential and commercial heating, and other sources that emit small amounts of emissions on a 

per use basis but have a large number of users. The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan relied on 

a number of socioeconomic indicators to estimate emissions, and projections of emissions, such 

as: population, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific growth factors. In the 

maintenance plan, a baseline area source inventory of 2002 was grown using socioeconomic 

factors of expected population and employment growth. For some sources, such as coal-, 

distillate-, or natural gas-fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook or the EGAS 

model was used to predict future growth and emissions. For other area source categories, statespecific industry growth estimates supplied by the Department were used.

Area Source Category 2009 Emissions

Table 7 shows a recent estimate of actual socioeconomic indicators. Actual growth that occurred 

from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 

Bureau of Census

3,4, 5

and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy6. 

The actual growth is compared side-by-side with the predicted growth from the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan over-predicted growth for most area 

sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. In one category in the maintenance plan, actual growth 

was slightly higher than predicted growth: total natural gas consumption compared to natural gas 

consumption in boilers.

 

3 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates 

[10] data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-

01.html, accessed October 2011.

4 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2009 

Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and nonsampling error, see: http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology, accessed October 2011.

5 Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 

http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html

6 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, State Energy Data System - Consumption, 

Physical Units, 1960-2006, available from: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sedsstates.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania
18

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative 

to Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2002-2009)

Surrogate Indicator for 

Growth

Actual Use 

2002

Actual Use 

2009

Actual 

Growth 

2002-2009

Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2002-2009)

Population 478,078 507,766 1.062 1.0918

Total Employees 214,288 211,461 1.011 1.1321

Total Coal Consumption (short 

tons)

403,596 261,637 0.648 0.7488

Total Natural Gas 

Consumption (million cubic ft.)

23,522 25,022 1.064

---

Natural Gas Boilers --- --- --- 1.0105

Natural Gas, Residential --- --- --- 1.0841

Total Heating Oil Consumption

(barrels)

2,560,787 2,493,497 0.974 0.9807

Area Source Category 2018 Emissions

The Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan estimated area source sector growth using a baseline 

inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 2018, based 

on the growth of socioeconomic activity.

7

 Data used to revise growth estimates was obtained 

from the same MARAMA inventory effort described in the point source section above. The 

effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 and maintenance year inventories of 2017, 2020, and 

2025.8 Just as in the point source emissions, these inventory years made a direct comparison of 

emissions and growth rates difficult because the MARAMA baseline years and projected 

inventory years were too dissimilar from what was included in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan. Therefore, the emissions growth predicted to occur from 2009 to 2018 was determined 

through linear interpolation by using emission estimates for 2007 and 2020 from the new 

MARAMA inventory. Projected growth between 2009 and 2018 in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates. In Table 8, the 

revised growth projections are given. 

 

7

State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B-1, Area Source Methodology, p.2.

8 Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association, 
19

The growth rate predicted in the maintenance plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by the following 

formula:

Growth Factor (2009-2018) = ((Growth Factor (2002-2018) – Growth Factor (2002-2009)) 

÷ Growth Factor (2002-2009)) + 1

A straight line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020 

MARAMA projected emissions was used to calculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018. 

From these interpolated emissions (see equations 1 and 2 below), the projected growth between 

2009 and 2018 was calculated (see equation 3 below). Fossil fuel combustion surrogates in 

Table 8 represent most emissions of NOx, while ‘population’ and ‘employees’ represent the best 

surrogates for many source categories that produce VOC emissions. The surrogates for growth 

shown in Table 8 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions from area 

source categories in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan revision.

(1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions – 2007 Emissions) * ((2009 –

 2007) ÷ (2020-2007))

(2) 2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions – 2007 Emissions) * ((2018 –

 2007) ÷ (2020-2007))

(3) Emissions Growth (2009-2018) = ((2018 Emission – 2009 Emissions) ÷ 2009 Emissions) + 1

 

Table 8: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Area Relative 

to the Projected Growth in the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan (2009-2018)

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth In 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018)

Maintenance Plan 

Growth 

(2009-2018)

Population 1.0509 1.1081

Employees 1.0113* 1.1499

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9799 0.9988

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0055 0.9865

All Combuster Types, Distillate Oil, 

Residential

0.9615 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial

1.0154 1.0521

Combuster Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential

1.0034 1.0181
20

*The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North American Industry 

Classification System codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the county 

level. Employment growth in Table 8 was derived from U.S Census Bureau industrial employment data and was not 

developed by MARAMA.

Table 8 shows that, for the most part, growth in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan is 

comparable to new assumptions developed by the MARAMA inventory effort. It deserves 

mentioning that the two sets of employee growth that are compared in Table 8 were estimated 

using two different methods. It is safe to assume that, due to the severe economic downturn 

experienced from 2007 to 2009, employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the 

Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. Most types of VOC emissions relied on population and 

employment data to grow emissions. Population and employment show clearly that current 

projections are well below what was projected in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

Emissions of NOx from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel combustion. While two 

categories, commercial anthracite coal consumption and residential distillate consumption, show 

that the maintenance plan predicts less fossil fuel growth than current growth assumptions in the 

MARAMA inventory, the difference in these two categories is small enough to demonstrate that 

the emissions growth for 2018 is over-predicted in the maintenance plan.

Nonroad Source Category Emissions

Emissions from the nonroad category are produced by many different types of vehicles and 

equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD Model estimates emissions for over 200 types of equipment, 

engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as 

construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial applications. In 

addition, emissions from three types of activities including aircraft, locomotives, and commercial 

marine vessels are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are still included in the nonroad 

category. The aircraft, rail, and commercial marine emissions are estimated outside of the 

NONROAD Model. In the approved Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, the NONROAD2005 

model was used to estimate nonroad emissions. The model went through one major revision

since it was used for the maintenance plan. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. 

This new version of the model incorporated two reduction strategies that affect engines and 

vehicles in the nonroad sector:

Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine engines 

(73 FR 25098); and

The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule 

(73 FR 59034).

For the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department modified files in the NONROAD 

Model, when state specific data was available for emission categories such as residential lawn and 

garden.

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, as a result of the additional controls mentioned and other tier level controls 

that have been phased in with fleet turnover since 2004. The fleet turnover that occurs as older, 

more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles 
21

that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower emissions in the nonroad 

sector since the late 1990s and will continue to do so for the next 10 years. Emission reductions

occurred across all segments of the nonroad category, including construction equipment, farming 

equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment. Modeling runs were not completed for 

the nonroad emission source categories. The Department will treat nonroad emissions in the 

Lancaster Area as non-changing from their 2004 levels for the purpose of this SIP revision, even 

though full scale modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a would show nonroad emissions in a 

decline. 

Highway Source Category Emissions

Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the 

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating emissions of 

highway vehicles is greatly different than what was used in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance 

Plan because an entirely new highway emissions model is being used. Highway emissions are 

being estimated using the MOVES Model instead of the Mobile6 Model. With this change, a new 

set of inputs were used in the MOVES Model. The method for how traffic growth or vehicle 

miles travelled was forecasted remains the same as what was used in the Lancaster Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Both the revised maintenance plan and the original maintenance plan used the 

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth. A revised Appendix C, Maintenance Plan 

Update for the Lancaster (Lancaster County) Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor 

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a, is attached. Also attached, please find 

Appendix C-1, Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology.

The MOVES Model estimates that highway vehicle emissions increase greatly for VOC and NOx

for the 2009 and 2018 attainment years when compared to the highway vehicle emission 

estimates included in the Lancaster Ozone Maintenance Plan for those same years. (See Table 9). 

MOVES also increases the emission estimates of the 2004 attainment year. Since the emissions 

increase in both the attainment and maintenance years, MOVES modeled emissions, like Mobile 

modeled emissions, of highway vehicles still show a large decrease in emissions between 2004 

and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018.

Table 9: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC (tons/day) 19.75 14.33 7.77 16.41 14.29 8.14

NOx (tons/day) 32.33 22.32 8.99 42.10 33.18 18.57
APPENDIX C 

Maintenance Plan Update for the 

Lancaster (Lancaster County) 

1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area: 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions 

 Using MOVES2010a 

Technical Support Document 

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory 

Executive Summary 

May 2012 

 Prepared for: 

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468 

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468 

 Prepared by: 

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc. 

1304 Concourse Drive 

Linthicum, MD 21090 

410-689-3400 
 Lancaster Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions 

Executive Summary 

May 2012

Exhibit of Contents 

SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................................. 1

REVISED EMISSIONS INVENTORY ............................................................................................................................... 1

ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................................ 2

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS ........................................................................................................... 3

ANALYSIS TOOLS ...................................................................................................................................................... 3

TRAFFIC DATA SOURCE/FLEET DATA INPUTS ........................................................................................................... 4

TRAFFIC GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................. 5

VEHICLE POPULATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................ 6

I/M AND FUEL PARAMETERS ..................................................................................................................................... 7

METEOROLOGY DATA ............................................................................................................................................... 8

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMS .......................................................................................................................... 8

RESOURCES ............................................................................................................................................................... 9

List of Exhibits 

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................... 1

EXHIBIT 2: REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES2010A ..................................................................... 2

EXHIBIT 3: SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS TOOLS ................................................................................................................... 3

EXHIBIT 4: PPSUITE PROCESS ...................................................................................................................................... 4

EXHIBIT 5: VMT GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................................................... 6

Summary of Appendices 

Appendix C-1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology 

Appendix C-2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type) 

Appendix C-3: MOVES Sample Input Files 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1

SUMMARY 

This technical appendix supports the revised maintenance plan for the Lancaster Area under the 1997 8-

hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Section 107 of the Clean Air Act 

(CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be considered for redesignation. One of those requirements 

includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors, volatile organic compounds 

(VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), for a base year, the year the region attains the ozone standard, and 

projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The emissions inventory is 

used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the ozone standard. U.S. 

EPA’s redesignation guidance states, “A state may generally demonstrate maintenance of the NAAQS by 

either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will not exceed the level of the

attainment inventory, or by modeling to show that the future mix of sources and emission rates will not 

cause a violation of the NAAQS.” 

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inventory for the Lancaster Area was originally 

approved by EPA on July 6, 2007 as documented in the Federal register (72 FR 36889) and was effective 

on the same day. At that time, EPA also approved the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for VOC 

and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. The original budgets were developed 

using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA-approved emission model at that time. On March 2, 2010, EPA 

officially released MOVES2010a to be used for all SIP submittals and future transportation conformity 

analyses after a grace period through March 2, 2013. This maintenance plan update revises the 2009 and 

2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010a. 

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the methodology and analysis results for the motor vehicle 

emissions inventory. To complement this executive summary, attachments have been provided with 

additional detail regarding the analysis methodology, the MOVES input parameters, and the output 

vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emission results for the Lancaster Maintenance Area. These include: 

Exhibit 1: Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description 

C-1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to 

calculate the VMT and emissions. 

C-2 Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

Emission Results 

Provides emission exhibits by county, road type, and source 

type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and 2018. 

C-3 MOVES Sample Input File Provides examples of the MOVES input files. 

Revised Emissions Inventory 

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions for the Lancaster Area is provided in Exhibit 2. Both 

VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010a emission model and 

latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 attainment year, 2009 and 

2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the original maintenance plan have been included in the 

exhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2

Exhibit 2: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 

(Short Tons/Day) 

Pollutant 

Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018 

VOC 19.75 14.30 7.80 16.41 14.29 8.14

NOx 32.33 22.30 9.00 42.10 33.18 18.57

Analysis Methodology 

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop the base and future year emissions inventories for 

the Lancaster Maintenance Area. They include: 

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009. 

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 

2010. 

• Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, 

August 2010. 

The highway mobile source emission inventory was developed using available travel data and EPA’s 

MOVES2010a emission model. The methodologies used to produce the emission data conform to the 

recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance. A mix of local data and national default 

(internal to MOVES2010a) data has been used for this submission. Local data has been used for the 

primary data items that have a significant impact on emissions. These include: 

• Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by vehicle type. 

• Average speed distribution. 

• Vehicle type mixes. 

• Source type population (for light-duty vehicles). 

• Vehicle age distribution. 

• Hourly distributions. 

• Meteorology data. 

• Inspection/Maintenance program. 

• Fuel supply. 

Most local data inputs to the analysis process reflect the latest planning assumptions based on 2008 data 

obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, 

and other local/national sources. Newer data was available and was used for traffic forecast growth rates, 

control strategies (e.g. Inspection-Maintenance programs), vehicle age distributions and fuel 

characteristics. 

The analysis methodology is consistent with past statewide inventory efforts including the 2008 National 

Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This includes the use of custom post processing software to 

calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic input files to the MOVES2010a emission model. A 

detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C-1. The following sections address the key input data 

sources and analysis tools used for the emissions inventory for the Lancaster Area. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS 

This section provides a summary of the key input data and analysis tools used for producing the 

Lancaster Maintenance Area emissions inventory. The key elements to the modeling protocol are 

described in the sections below. A more detailed description of the analysis process and tools is provided 

in the methodology reports in Appendix C-1 through C-3. 

Analysis Tools 

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis utilizes several key software/programs for producing the 

county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3. 

Exhibit 3: Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose 

MOVES2010a Produces emission rates for each ozone 

precursor, VOC and NOx. 

PPSUITE 

Processes the highway data; Calculates 

hourly congested speeds for each state 

roadway segment; Prepares MOVES2010a 

input files; Processes MOVES2010a output 

files into a summary report. 

CENTRAL 

Provides a batch menu driven process to 

execute PPSUITE, MOVES2010a and other 

MYSQL steps. 

The Lancaster Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source emission estimations 

using EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2, 

2010 and was followed with a revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The MOVES2010a 

model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. 

MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and control 

strategy data to estimate emissions. 

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system 

that has been used for previous inventory and conformity submissions in Pennsylvania. The software has 

undergone significant revisions to ensure consistency with the MOVES2010a. PPSUITE was used to 

calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT, 

prepare MOVES2010a traffic-related input files and process MOVES2010a outputs. 

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and

transportation conformity analyses throughout Pennsylvania. Exhibit 4 summarizes the key functions of 

PPSUITE. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4

Exhibit 4: PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu-driven software platform that executes the PPSUITE and MOVES2010a processes 

in batch mode. The software allows users to execute runs for a variety of input options and integrates 

custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provides important quality control and assurance 

steps including file naming and storage automation.

Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs 

Traffic Volume Data: The 2008 PennDOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the 

primary highway data source for the county and functional class VMT estimates. The data source has 

been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regional roadway system and traffic volumes in 2008 and is

also integrated with traffic signal locations. The data includes the 2008 average annual daily traffic 

(AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvania. To account for additional local roadway VMT 

and to ensure consistency with reported Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT totals, 

the 2008 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 2008 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA. 

Seasonal Adjustments: Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on each RMS 

roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are 

developed from data contained in the document, 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, prepared by 

PennDOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). The seasonal and daily factors provided in this 

document are based on statistical analyses of 2008 traffic counts taken at permanent and in-pavement 

ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations throughout the state. Based on these seasonal traffic volumes, 

the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested speeds for each roadway segment during an ozone 

summer weekday scenario. 

 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5

Congested Speeds: PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of the day for each roadway segment 

and provides the information as input to the MOVES2010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS 

volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pattern data from PennDOT’s 2008 Pennsylvania 

Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variations in traffic volumes. 

Vehicle Population: Vehicle population is a key input that has an important impact on start and 

evaporative emissions. MOVES2010a requires the number of vehicles by 13 source types to determine 

evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registration data was used to estimate vehicle population for 

light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data was split to source types using MOVES2010a default 

population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was 

used to estimate transit bus populations by county. For all other heavy-duty vehicles, PPSUITE calculates 

vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT for each source type and default MOVES2010a ratios 

of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type). Vehicle 

population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc. 

for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes: 

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households 

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions 

VMT by Source Type: The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES2010a source types. For this 

inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grouping utilizing a 

combination of: 

• 2008 RMS truck percentages 

• PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data 

• 2008 school bus registration data 

EPA’s MOVES2010a default distribution of VMT by source type was used to determine the remaining 

source type VMT percentages. The development of vehicle type pattern data input to the MOVES2010a 

software is described in more detail in Appendix C-1. 

Vehicle Age Distribution: Vehicle age distributions are required to be input by 13 source types. The 

distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. A recent 2010 registration 

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has indicated a substantially 

older fleet than recorded in the 2002-2008 period. The 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for 

this inventory. Due to insufficient data, only data for light-duty vehicles are used as local inputs; and 

heavy-duty vehicle ages are calculated using the internal MOVES2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania 

County. The registration data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. The data was 

converted to source types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a 

emission model. 

Traffic Growth Assumptions 

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. There 

are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth including the current economic conditions, 

potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many counties throughout the state, and 

the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for this emissions inventory were based 

on an assessment of available data sources. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6

For the Lancaster Maintenance Area, the following data sources are available: 

• PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system. 

• Regional Travel Model. 

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis. This system was last 

updated in December of 2009 to develop new statistical relationships between historic VMT growth and 

population (thru 2008). The forecast population was estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010 

State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between PennDOT, PaDEP, and other 

Interagency Consultation Group members, including the Pennsylvania Transportation - Air Quality Work 

Group (which also includes EPA, FHWA, and representatives from larger MPOs within the state). 

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated against other available data 

including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of the 

VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses. From an air quality perspective, the use of the 

upper boundary is conservative, and provides for factors outside PennDOT or PaDEP control (e.g., 

potential socio-economic growth above current forecasts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distribution) 

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for

future analysis years in the Lancaster Maintenance Area. 

Exhibit 5: VMT Growth Assumptions 

Analysis 

Year 

Total Growth 

from 2004 

Annualized Growth Rate 

from Previous Year 

2004 ---- ----

2009 9.7% 1.9%

2018 47.8% 3.4%

Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions 

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays an important key role in determining emissions for future 

years for the region. For this inventory, vehicle population was forecasted considering the growth from 

three different sources: 

• Household growth 

• Population Growth 

• VMT Growth 

The household and population data were obtained from the PennDOT study documented in the report as 

discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: 

Final Report, March 14, 2005. The forecast household and population were estimated from the Woods 

and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest growth between household and population data was 

obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT 

growth. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7

I/M and Fuel Parameters 

I/M Program: The inspection maintenance (I/M) program inputs to the MOVES2010a model are based 

on past and current programs within each county (all PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries). 

All analysis years include Pennsylvania’s statewide program. The MOVES2010a model has simplified 

the I/M program input parameters compared to MOBILE6.2. The default I/M program parameters 

included in MOVES2010a were examined for each county and necessary changes made to the defaults to 

match the actual local program. 

In order to assure that emission controls are working properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) 

programs have been adopted in some nonattainment areas. These programs have the added benefit of 

improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. The Pennsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program 

was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase-in period starting in September 2003 and 

fully implemented by June 2004. 

The program requirements vary by region (five regions) and include on-board diagnostics (OBD) 

technology that uses the vehicle’s computer for model years 1996 and newer to identify potential engine 

and exhaust system problems that could affect emissions. The program, named PAOBDII, is 

implemented by region, as follows: 

• Philadelphia Region - Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties 

• Pittsburgh Region - Allegheny, Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland Counties 

• South Central and Lehigh Valley Region - Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, 

Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties 

• North Region - Blair, Cambria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming, and Mercer 

Counties 

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburgh 

and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests. Tests in other regions include: 

• Subject vehicles registered in the South Central and Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual, 

OBD and gas cap tests. 

• Subject vehicles registered in the North region receive a gas cap test and visual inspection. 

• Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 counties (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection 

as part of the annual safety inspection. 

Fuel Assumptions: The MOVES2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and 

updated based on available local volumetric fuel property information. The gasohol market penetration

and RVP values were updated but MOVES2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters. 

Updated assumptions included: 

• 8.7 RVP used for summer months. 

• Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004. 

• 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% market share of 10% ethanol used 

throughout the year for analysis year 2009. 

• 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis year 2018. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8

Meteorology Data 

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. (www.weatherbank.com). The 

10-year average minimum and maximum monthly temperature and relative humidity values were 

obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pennsylvania. 

The MOVES2010a model requires temperature and relative humidity data for each hour of the day. 

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly 

temperature profile that could be input to MOVES2010a. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008

NEI inventory submission. 

Vehicle Technology Programs 

Federal Programs 

Current federal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MOVES2010a 

software. These include the National Program standards covering model year vehicles through 2016. 

Modifications of default emission rates are required to reflect the early implementation of the National 

Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Pennsylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has 

released instructions and input files that can be used to model these impacts. This inventory utilized the 

August 2010 version of the files (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm). 

State Programs 

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adopted in 1998, incorporated the California Low 

Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by reference, although it allowed automakers to comply with the 

NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008, 

“new” passenger cars and light-duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds 

or less that are sold or leased and titled in Pennsylvania must be certified by the California Air Resources 

Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 states. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualified 

vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 miles. PaDEP and PennDOT worked with the 

automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interested business partners and finalized procedures for 

complying with these new requirements. DEP focuses its outreach effort with the manufacturers and 

dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compliant. 

PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registration records include these certifications of compliance 

or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemption to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use 

information obtained during PennDOT’s title and registration process to oversee and audit, as needed, 

certain vehicle title transactions to determine compliance to the program. 

The impacts of this program are modeled for all analysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions

and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis. EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVII 

program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania. 
Lancaster Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9

RESOURCES 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010. 

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010. 

2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 2008. 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009. 

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES, US EPA, EPA-420-B-10-003a, August 2010. 

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005. 

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weatherbank.com 
APPENDIX C-1 

 Lancaster County - An Explanation of Methodology 
An Explanation of Methodology 

 Explanation of Methodology 

May 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................... 1

OVERVIEW OF EMISSIONS INVENTORIES .................................................................................................................... 1

HIGHWAY VEHICLE EMISSION INVENTORIES ............................................................................................................. 1

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? ..................................................................................... 4

SUMMARY OF MOVES INPUTS .................................................................................................................................. 4

VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL (VMT) .......................................................................................................................... 5

ADJUSTMENTS TO ROADWAY DATA .......................................................................................................................... 8

VEHICLE TYPE PROCESSING ...................................................................................................................................... 9

VEHICLE FLEET AND POPULATION DATA ................................................................................................................ 10

ENVIRONMENTAL, FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................... 11

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE .............................................................................................. 12

VOLUME/VMT DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................................... 12

SPEED/DELAY DETERMINATION .............................................................................................................................. 15

HPMS AND VMT ADJUSTMENTS ............................................................................................................................ 16

MOVES EMISSIONS RUN ........................................................................................................................................ 17

RESOURCES ............................................................................................................................................................. 18

HIGHWAY VEHICLE INVENTORY GLOSSARY ............................................................................................. 19

List of Exhibits

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF PPSUITE PROCESS ................................................................................................................ 3

EXHIBIT 2: MOVES LOCAL DATA INPUT SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 4

EXHIBIT 3: PENNDOT URBAN/RURAL AND FUNCTIONAL CLASS CODES ....................................................................... 6

EXHIBIT 4: EMISSION FACTOR VS. SPEED VARIANCES (NOX) ........................................................................................ 7

EXHIBIT 5: MOVES SOURCE TYPES AND HPMS VEHICLE GROUPS .............................................................................. 9

EXHIBIT 6: PPSUITE SPEED / EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE .............................................................................. 13
Appendix C-1 1 

INTRODUCTION 

The purpose of this document is to explain how the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (Department) estimates emissions from highway vehicles for inclusion in its emission 

inventories and State Implementation Plans. 

Overview of Emissions Inventories 

The Department’s inventories generally categorize emissions into four categories: 

• Highway vehicles. 

• Stationary sources (major industrial, commercial and utility sources). 

• Area sources (smaller industrial/commercial sources, consumer products). 

• Nonroad mobile sources (including construction and agricultural equipment, lawn and garden 

equipment). 

An evaluation of emissions from point, area, and mobile sources is needed to develop a complete 

inventory needed for a maintenance demonstration plan. This documentation addresses the mobile source

activity and emissions for base and future years used to support such a demonstration. 

Of all of the sources of air pollution, only the emissions of some stationary sources are measured directly 

and continuously through instrumentation. Emissions from all other sources must be modeled based on 

available local data, including those from highway vehicles. In their very simplest form, estimates of 

emissions follow the following pattern: 

Emission rate x activity level = emissions per time period (usually day or year) 

Most emission rates have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in 

cooperation with industry and states, and are compiled and documented into key references or emission 

models. These include Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors (AP-42), the Motor Vehicle 

Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, and the NONROAD model. Adding up the products of the 

emission rates and activity levels for all sources of a given pollutant constitutes the emission inventory for 

that pollutant. 

Highway Vehicle Emission Inventories 

Highway vehicles contribute significantly to air pollution, particularly to ground-level ozone, which is the 

most persistent air pollutant in Pennsylvania. Ground-level ozone is not emitted directly to the 

atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds 

(VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of 

summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so ozone levels are of concern primarily 

during the months of May through September. Both VOCs and NOx are emitted from highway 

vehicles. Pennsylvania’s ozone-related emission inventory efforts focus on these two types of pollutants. 

Obviously, direct measurement of emission levels from all vehicles in use is impossible. In comparison 

to highway vehicles, estimating residential heating emissions is a fairly simple calculation because there 

is a constant emission rate and a fairly simple measure of activity. However, for highway vehicles 
Appendix C-1 2 

estimating the emission rate and activity levels of all vehicles on the road during a typical summer day is 

a complicated endeavor. 

 

If every vehicle emitted the same amount of pollution all the time, one could simply multiply those 

emission standards (emission rate in grams of pollution per mile) times the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 

to estimate total emissions. But emission rates from all vehicles vary over the entire range of conditions 

under which they operate. These variables include air temperature, speed, traffic conditions, operating 

mode and fuel characteristics. The inventory must also account for non-exhaust or evaporative emissions. 

In addition, the fleet is composed of several generations and types of vehicles with different emission 

control technologies. This requires the estimation algorithm include the composition of the fleet (vehicle 

ages and types). 

In order to estimate both the rate at which emissions are being generated and to calculate vehicle miles 

traveled (activity level), Pennsylvania examines its road network and fleet to estimate vehicle activity. 

For ozone-related inventories, this is done for a typical summer weekday. For carbon monoxide (CO) and 

particulate matter (PM) emission inventories, this may be done for a typical winter weekday, summer 

weekday and/or annual conditions. Not only must this be done for a baseline year, but it must also be

projected into the future. This process involves a large quantity of data and is extremely complex. 

Computer models have been developed to perform these calculations by simulating the travel of vehicles

on the Commonwealth’s roadway system. The models also generate emissions rates (also called emission 

factors) for different vehicle types for area-specific conditions, and then combine them in summary form. 

The area-specific conditions include vehicle and highway data, plus control measure characteristics and 

future year projections of all variables. The key models used to generate this mobile source emissions 

inventory are: 

MOVES: EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a 

revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The MOVES model provides a more robust estimate of 

emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES calculates average in-use fleet emissions 

for each of thirteen categories of vehicles under various conditions affecting in-use emission levels (e.g., 

ambient temperatures, average traffic speeds, gasoline volatility) as specified by the model user. 

For this mobile source inventory, Pennsylvania used MOVES2010a as approved by EPA. MOVES can 

be used to estimate national, state, and county level inventories of criteria air pollutants, precursors, 

greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source air toxics from highway vehicles. Additionally, 

MOVES can make projections for energy consumption (total, petroleum-based, and fossil-based). 

PPSUITE: For the Department’s highway emissions inventory, a post processor named PPSUITE 

(formerly named PPAQ - Post Processor for Air Quality) is used, which consists of a set of programs that 

perform the following functions: 

• Analyzes highway operating conditions. 

• Calculates highway speeds. 

• Compiles vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle type mix data. 

• Prepares MOVES runs and processes MOVES outputs. 

PPSUITE is a widely used and accepted tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates. The 

software is based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. For example, PPSUITE uses 

speed and delay estimation procedures based on planning methods provided in the Highway Capacity 

Manual, a report prepared by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summarizing current knowledge 

and analysis techniques for capacity and level-of-service analyses of the transportation system. 
Appendix C-1 3 

The PPSUITE process is integral to producing key input files to the MOVES emission model. Exhibit 1 

summarizes the key functions of PPSUITE and the traffic-related input files prepared for the MOVES 

County Data Manager (CDM). 

Exhibit 1: Summary of PPSUITE Process 

The following sections summarize the key data and methodologies used to produce the mobile source 

emissions inventory. This includes a summary of local data sources and a step-by-step review of the 

speed calculation process. The emission data and process has been developed according to 

recommendations provided by EPA in key policy and technical guidance as provided below:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009. 

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 

2010. 

The process has focused on developing an emissions inventory using the available tools and data to its

fullest extent. This includes the use of available local data for items that have a significant impact on 

emissions and applying a robust calculation process to estimate hourly traffic speeds. 
Appendix C-1 4 

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? 

Summary of MOVES Inputs 

A large number of inputs to MOVES are needed to fully account for the numerous vehicle and 

environmental parameters that affect emissions. These include traffic flow characteristics (as determined 

from the PPSUITE software), vehicle descriptions, fuel parameters, inspection/maintenance program 

parameters, and environmental variables. MOVES includes a default national database of meteorology, 

vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, fuel, and emission control program data for every county; but EPA cannot 

certify that the default data is the most current or best available information for any specific area. As a 

result, local data is recommended for use for analyses supporting state implementation plans (SIPs). 

A mix of local and default data is used for this inventory. Local data sources are used for all inputs that 

have a significant impact on calculated emission rates. Exhibit 2 summarizes Pennsylvania-specific 

inputs assembled and used for this inventory. These data items are discussed in the following sections. 

Exhibit 2: MOVES Local Data Input Summary

 Traffic Vehicle Fuel Inspection Environmental 

 Data Descriptions Parameters Maintenance Variables 

 Vehicle Type Vehicle Type RVP Start Year Hourly 

 VMT Mix Model Years Temperatures

 Vehicle Vehicle Age Sulfur Test Standards, 

 Population Distribution Level Source Types, Humidity 

 Frequency 

 VMT Average Speeds Ethanol Stringency, 

 Fractions (PPSUITE) Volume Waiver Rate, 

 (PPSUITE) Compliance 

 Road Type Hourly Refueling 

 Distribution Distributions Controls 

 (PPSUITE) 

 Ramp 

 Fraction 

 (PPSUITE) 

 Emission Rates 

 
Appendix C-1 5 

Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) 

The VMT input to emissions calculations for Pennsylvania is based on information from the Roadway 

Management System (RMS) maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation’s 

(PennDOT’s) Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). PennDOT obtains this information from periodic 

visual and electronic traffic counts. RMS data is dynamic, since it is continually reviewed and updated 

from new traffic counts and field visits conducted by PennDOT. Information on roadways included in the 

National Highway System is reviewed at least annually, while information on other roadways is reviewed

at least biennially. 

On a triennial basis, a current “snapshot” of the RMS database is taken and downloaded to provide an upto-date record of the Commonwealth’s highway system for estimating emissions. This emissions 

inventory is based on the most current snapshot of the RMS data. 

The RMS database contains all state highways, including the Pennsylvania Turnpike, divided into 

segments approximately 0.5 miles in length. These segments are usually divided at important 

intersections or locations where there is a change in the physical characteristics of the roadway (e.g. the 

number of lanes changes). There are approximately 99,000 state highway segments for the 67 

Pennsylvania counties contained in the RMS. Each of these segments contains an abundance of 

descriptive data, but only the following information is extracted for emission calculations: 

• Lanes. 

• Distances. 

• Volumes representing Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT). 

• Truck percentages. 

• PennDOT urban/rural classifications. 

• PennDOT functional class codes. 

• Number of signals (based on linkage to PennDOT GIS signal location data). 

RMS volumes and distances are used in calculating highway VMT totals for each county. As discussed 

in the next section, adjustments are needed to convert the volumes to an average summer weekday, winter 

weekday, and monthly day. In addition, the traffic volumes must be forecast to support future year 

emission inventories. Lane values and traffic signals are an important input for determining the 

congestion and speeds for individual highway segments. Truck percentages are used in the speed 

determination process and are used to split volumes to individual vehicle types used by the MOVES 

software. 

 

Road segments are classified by function, as well as whether it is located in an urban, small urban or rural 

area, as indicated below in Exhibit 3. The PennDOT urban/rural (UR) and functional classes (FC) are 

important indicators of the type and function of each roadway segment. The variables provide insights 

into other characteristics not contained in the RMS data that are used for speed and emission calculations.
Appendix C-1 6 

Exhibit 3: PennDOT Urban/Rural and Functional Class Codes

 

Urban/Rural Code 1=Rural 

 2=Small Urban 

 3=Urban 

Functional Class Rural Functional Classes Used Urban Functional Classes Used 

 For Rural Areas For Small Urban and Urban Areas 

 ------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ 

 1=Rural Freeway 11=Urban Freeway 

 2=Rural Other Principal Arterial 12=Urban Expressway 

 6=Rural Minor Arterial 14=Urban Principal Arterial 

 7=Rural Major Collector 16=Urban Minor Arterial

 8=Rural Minor Collector 17=Urban Collector 

 9=Rural Local 19=Urban Local 

Additional Network Information: The PPSUITE software system allows for many additional variables 

other than those available in the RMS database. Using these variables improves the ability of the 

Department to incorporate real roadway conditions into its estimates. The variables include information 

regarding free-flow speeds and capacities, signal characteristics and other physical roadway features that 

can affect a roadway’s calculated congested speed. This data can be determined from lookup tables based 

on a roadway segment’s urban/rural code and functional class. Much of the lookup table data was 

developed from information contained in the Highway Capacity Manual, PennDOT information on 

speeds and signal densities, and other engineering judgment. 

MOVES Traffic Inputs: The PPSUITE software uses RMS traffic data to prepare key inputs to the 

MOVES emission model including: 

• VMT. 

• Travel speeds. 

• Road type distributions. 

• Ramp fractions. 

VMT is the primary traffic input that affects emission results. The roadway segment distances and traffic 

volumes are used to prepare estimates of VMT. PPSUITE performs these calculations and outputs the 

MOVES annual VMT input file to the County Data Manager (CDM). 

Emissions for many pollutants (including both VOC and NOx) vary significantly with travel speed. 

While VOCs generally decrease as speed increases, NOx decreases at the low speed range and increases 

at higher speeds, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. To obtain the best estimate of vehicle speeds, the Department 

uses the PPSUITE set of programs, whose primary function is to calculate speeds and to organize and 

simplify the handling of large amounts of data needed for calculating speeds and for preparing MOVES 

input files. The PPSUITE software prepares the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by speed bin file 

which summarizes the distribution of speeds across all links into each of 16 MOVES speed bins for each

hour of the day. This robust process ensures that MOVES emission rates are used to the fullest extent and 

is consistent with the methods and recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use 

of MOVES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation 

Conformity. 
Appendix C-1 7 

Exhibit 4: Emission Factor vs. Speed Variances (NOx)

In MOVES, typical drive cycles and associated operating conditions vary by the type of roadway. 

MOVES defines five different road types as follows:

1 Off-Network. 

2 Rural Restricted Access. 

3 Rural Unrestricted Access. 

4 Urban Restricted Access. 

5 Urban Unrestricted Access. 

The off-network road type includes emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative 

emissions. Off-network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type Population 

input, as discussed in a following section. The remaining distribution among road types is determined by 

equating the PennDOT functional class with each MOVES road type as follows: 

• MOVES Road Type (2) = PennDOT Functional Class (1).

• MOVES Road Type (3) = PennDOT Functional Class (2,6,7,8,9). 

• MOVES Road Type (4) = PennDOT Functional Class (11,12). 

• MOVES Road Type (5) = PennDOT Functional Class (14,16,17,19). 

For this inventory, the MOVES road type distribution file is automatically generated by PPSUITE using 

the defined equivalencies. 

Since ramps are not directly represented within the RMS database information, it is assumed that 8% of

the Freeway VHT is Ramp VHT. This is consistent with the recommendations provided in EPA’s 

technical guidance. 

Source: Figure 3 from Implications of the MOVES2010 Model on Mobile 

Source Emission Estimates, Air & Waste Management Association, July 2010. 
Appendix C-1 8 

Adjustments to Roadway Data 

Before the RMS data can be used by PPSUITE for speed and emission calculations, several adjustments 

and additions must be made to the roadway data. These adjustments are summarized below. 

HPMS Adjustments: According to EPA guidance, baseline inventory VMT computed from the RMS 

highway segment volumes must be adjusted to be consistent with Highway Performance Monitoring 

System (HPMS) VMT totals. The HPMS VMT reported for Pennsylvania is a subsystem of the RMS 

established to meet the data reporting requirements of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and 

to serve as PennDOT’s official source of highway information. Although it has some limitations, the 

HPMS system is currently in use in all 50 states and is being improved under FHWA direction. 

Although the HPMS VMT and the roadway data used for an inventory emissions analysis are both based 

on data from the RMS system, differences do exist between them and include the following. First, the 

HPMS and inventory roadway data are “snapshots” of the RMS data taken at different times. Since the 

RMS is dynamic, changing constantly due to new data, differences will result between the data used for

calculating HPMS VMT totals and the inventory data used for an emissions analysis. Second, since the 

RMS does not contain many of the local roadways, local road estimates of HPMS VMT are obtained 

through alternative procedures developed by PennDOT. To account for such differences, adjustment 

factors are calculated and used to adjust the inventory roadway data to the reported HPMS VMT totals 

submitted to FHWA. The VMT contained in the HPMS reports are considered to represent average 

annual daily traffic (AADT). 

Adjustment factors are calculated which adjust the base year RMS download VMT to the reported HPMS 

totals for that year. These factors are developed for each county and functional class combination and are 

also applied to all future year runs. Adjustments for the “higher” functional classes (e.g. Freeway, 

Arterials - major routes) are close to 1.000 since HPMS VMT is derived from RMS information, and the 

only difference in the data is that the “snapshot” for the emission calculations is taken at a different time 

than for the HPMS. “Lower” classes (e.g. local roads) require greater adjustment since a large part of the 

local system is not under state jurisdiction and is not in the RMS database. There is, of course, a 

significant amount of local road mileage in the state. It is assumed that those local streets that are in RMS 

are representative of all local streets in their area with respect to volume and speed, so that roadway 

mileage adjustment is appropriate. 

 

Seasonal Adjustments to Volumes: The RMS contains AADT volumes that are an average of all days in 

the year, including weekends and holidays. An ozone emission analysis, however, is based on a typical 

July or summer weekday. PM and CO analyses require volumes representing a typical summer or winter 

weekday and monthly average conditions (needed for producing annual totals). Therefore, the RMS 

volumes must be seasonally adjusted. Seasonal factors were developed for each functional class and 

urban/rural code based on yearly count information prepared by PennDOT’s BPR. These factors are 

applied to the existing RMS AADT volumes to produce the July volumes. The same factors are also used 

to develop the MOVES daily and monthly VMT fraction files. 

Hourly Adjustments: Speeds and emissions vary considerably depending on the time of day. 

Therefore, it is important to estimate the pattern by which roadway volume varies by hour of the day. The 

24-hour pattern data provides PPSUITE with information used to split the daily roadway segment 

volumes to each of the 24 hours in a day. Pattern data is in the form of a percentage of the daily volumes 

for each hour. Distributions are provided for each county and functional class grouping. This data is 

developed from 24-hour count data compiled by PennDOT’s BPR, according to the process in the 

agencies annual traffic data reports. The same factors are also used to develop the MOVES hourly 

fraction file. 
Appendix C-1 9 

Traffic Volume Forecasts: Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year 

emissions for the region. There are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth, including 

the current economic conditions, potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many 

counties throughout the state, and the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for the 

Department’s emissions inventories are based on an assessment of available data sources which include:

 

• PennDOT BPR growth rate forecasting system. 

• Regional travel model, if available. 

• Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growth, if applicable. 

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis to develop new statistical 

relationships between historic VMT growth and population and updated demographic forecasts from 

Woods and Poole, Inc. The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated 

against other available data including travel model growth and other insights. 

Vehicle Type Processing 

Emission rates within MOVES vary significantly by the type of vehicle. The MOVES model produces 

emissions and rates by thirteen MOVES vehicle source types. However, VMT is input to MOVES by six 

HPMS vehicle groups. Exhibit 5 summarizes the distinction between each classification scheme. 

Exhibit 5: MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Groups

SOURCE TYPES HPMS Class Groups 

11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycle 

 21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Car 

 31 Passenger Truck 30 Passenger/Light Truck 

 32 Light Commercial Truck 40 Buses 

 41 Intercity Bus 50 Single Unit Trucks 

 42 Transit Bus 60 Combination Trucks 

 43 School bus 

 51 Refuse Truck 

52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck 

53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck 

 54 Motor Home 

 61 Combination Short-haul Truck 

 62 Combination Long-haul Truck 

The process used for this inventory includes a method to disaggregate the RMS traffic volumes to the 

thirteen source types and then to recombine the estimates to the six HPMS vehicle classes. Vehicle type 

pattern data is used by PPSUITE to divide the hourly roadway segment volumes to the thirteen MOVES 

source types. Similar to the 24-hour pattern data, this data contains percentage splits to each source type 

for every hour of the day. The vehicle type pattern data for this inventory is developed from several

sources of information: 
Appendix C-1 10

• PennDOT truck percentages from the RMS database. 

• Hourly distributions for trucks and total traffic compiled by PennDOT’s BPR. 

• Transit data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database. 

• School bus registration data from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database. 

The vehicle type pattern data is developed for each county and functional class combination. First, RMS 

truck percentages are averaged for all roadways within a county and functional class grouping. Using this 

percentage data, the total roadway volume for any segment is divided to auto and truck vehicle type 

categories. The transit data and school bus data is used to further disaggregate trucks, resulting in four 

vehicle groups (light-duty, school, transit, and other heavy-duty). 

From these groups, MOVES default Pennsylvania county VMT distributions by source type are used to 

divide the four groups into each of the MOVES source types. PennDOT hourly distributions for trucks 

and total traffic are used to create source type percentage breakdowns for each hour of the day. 

Vehicle Type Capacity Analysis Factors: Vehicle type percentages are provided to the capacity 

analysis section of PPSUITE to adjust the speeds in response to trucks. That is, a given number of larger 

trucks take up more roadway space than a given number of cars, and this is accounted for in the speed 

estimation process by adjusting capacity using information from the Highway Capacity Manual. 

Vehicle Fleet and Population Data

The information on the vehicle fleet including the number and age of vehicles has a significant impact on 

forecasted start and evaporative emissions within MOVES. The MOVES Model requires the population 

of vehicles by the thirteen source type categories. Pennsylvania county vehicle registration data is used to 

estimate vehicle population for light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data is split to source types 

using MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania county population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT 

and the National Transit Database (NTD) is used to estimate county transit bus totals. Other heavy-duty 

vehicle population values are based on VMT for each source type using the vehicle mix and pattern data

discussed previously. The PPSUITE software automatically applies default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT 

and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type) to the local VMT 

estimates to produce vehicle population. 

Vehicle population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and 

Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes: 

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households. 

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions. 

Vehicle Age: Vehicle age distributions are input to MOVES for each county by the thirteen source types. 

The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. The most recent

available registration download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has 

been used for the inventory. Due to insufficient data, only information for light-duty vehicles are used as 

local inputs; and, heavy-duty vehicles use the internal MOVES2010a national defaults. The registration 

data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. As a result, the data was converted to source

types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a emission model. 
Appendix C-1 11

Environmental, Fuel and Technology Assumptions

Information on environmental, fuel, vehicle technology and other control strategy assumptions were 

determined based on a review of MOVES2010a default information by the PaDEP. 

Fuel Parameters: The same vehicle will produce different emissions using a different type of gasoline. 

Fuel control strategies can be powerful emission reduction mechanisms. The MOVES2010a default fuel 

formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel 

property information. The gasohol market penetration and RVP values were updated for all the counties. 

MOVES2010a default data was used for the rest of the parameters. 

Refueling Emissions: MOVES also allows users to calculate refueling emissions, the emissions created 

when vehicles are refueled at service stations. Pennsylvania includes refueling emissions in its area

source inventory and not in its highway vehicle inventory. Refueling emissions are not included in the 

highway emissions inventory. 

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Parameters: MOVES allows users to vary inputs 

depending on the I/M program in place for the area. The inputs include: 

 

• Program start year. 

• Stringency level. 

• First and last model years subject to the program. 

• Waiver rates. 

• Compliance rates. 

• Program type (test-only, test-and-repair, etc.) and effectiveness. 

• Frequency of inspection (annual, biennial). 

• Vehicle type coverage. 

• Test type (idle, loaded, etc.) 

The MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania assumptions were reviewed and modifications were made per 

actual program parameters. 

Environmental Variables: Evaporative emissions are influenced significantly by the temperatures of the 

surrounding air. Hourly temperatures have been compiled for each county based on information from 

WeatherBank, Inc. to specify temperatures from nine airports within the state. Ozone analysis 

temperature and humidity values were determined using the procedures documented in EPA’s technical 

guidance. Minimum and maximum temperatures for each month were converted to hourly temperatures 

using EPA convertors supplied with the MOVES2010a model. 

A summary of the MOVES related inputs used for the inventory and future year estimates are attached 

with the submission. 

 
Appendix C-1 12

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE 

The previous sections have summarized the input data used for computing speeds and emissions for 

Pennsylvania. This section explains how PPSUITE and MOVES uses that input data to produce emission 

estimates. Exhibit 6 summarizes PPSUITE’s analysis procedure used for each of the RMS highway 

segments in the state. 

Producing an emissions inventory with PPSUITE requires a process of disaggregation and aggregation. 

Data is available and used on a very small scale -- individual 1⁄2 mile roadway segments 24 hours of the

day. This data needs to be processed individually to determine the distribution of vehicle hours of travel 

(VHT) by speed and then aggregated by vehicle class to determine input VMT to the MOVES emission 

model. 

Volume/VMT Development 

Before speeds can be calculated and MOVES run, volumes acquired from RMS must be adjusted and 

disaggregated. Such adjustments include factoring to future years, seasonal adjustments, and 

disaggregating daily volumes to each hour of the day and to each of the thirteen MOVES source types. 

Determine Future Year Volumes: The RMS database contains up-to-date current year volumes. 

However, to conduct a future year analysis, these volumes must be factored to the year being analyzed. 

Growth factors have been prepared for each county and functional class grouping. These growth factors

are applied to the base year RMS volumes to obtain future year estimates that can be utilized by 

PPSUITE. 

Example: 

A typical freeway link in the RMS database is I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, 

Pennsylvania. This link has an urban/rural code=1 which indicates the link is in a rural area, and a 

functional class=1 indicating a rural freeway. 

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) from the RMS database for this link in 2008 is 12,077 

vehicles/day. 

Growth factors have been developed to factor the 2008 volume to future years. For example, to 

factor the 2008 volume to the year 2014, a growth factor of 1.282 would yield: 

2014 volume = 12,077 vehicles/day x 1.282 = 15,483 vehicles/day 

 

 
Appendix C-1 13

Exhibit 6: PPSUITE Speed / Emission Estimation Procedure

Data From PPSUITE Input Files PPSUITE Analysis Process Data from Roadway Source (RMS) 

 The Following is Performed For 

 Each RMS Roadway Segment 

 

Percent Pattern Distributions Expand to 24 hourly volumes RMS AWDT Adjusted Volumes 

 

Apply VMT Adjustments Adjust Volumes for Peak Spreading 

(V/C thresholds for spreading) 

Vehicle Type Patterns Disaggregate to Vehicle Type RMS Truck Percentages 

 

 Transit Data 

 School Bus Data 

 Calculate Link & Signal Capacities Roadway Attributes 

 (Lanes, FC code, UR code) 

Speed/Capacity Lookup Table 

 Calculate Link Calculate 

 Midblock Speed Approach Delay 

 Apply Post Speed VMT Adjustments 

 

 

 Prepare MOVES CDM Files 

 

 VHT by Annual RoadType SourceType Hourly Ramp 

 Speed Bin VMT Fractions Population Fractions Fractions 

 Per VMT 

 <Optional> 

Off-line File Preparation 

 

 Vehicle Age 

 Distribution Run MOVES Importer 

 to convert county input data 

 Hourly into MYSQL data format 

 Temps/Humidity 

 

 I/M 

 Parameters 

 

 Fuel Run MOVES 

 Parameters 

 
Appendix C-1 14

Seasonal Adjustments: PPSUITE takes the input daily volumes from RMS (which represents annual 

average daily traffic (AADT)) and seasonally adjusts the volumes to an average weekday in July. This 

adjustment utilizes factors developed for each functional class and urban/rural code. VMT can then be

calculated for each link using the adjusted weekday volumes. 

Example: 

Again, assume the rural freeway link: I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The 

AADT for this link in 2008 is 12,077 vehicles/day. 

Seasonal factors have been developed for urban/rural code and functional class combinations. For 

an urban/rural code=1 and a functional class=1, the factor to convert from AADT to an average 

weekday in July is = 1.15. 

Average Weekday July Volume = 12,077 x 1.15 = 13,889 vehicles/day. 

Total VMT (daily) for this link is calculated as volume x distance. The distance of this link as 

obtained from RMS is 0.296 miles. 

2008 VMT = 13,889 vehicles/day x 0.296 miles = 4,111 vehicle-miles / day. 

Disaggregation to 24 Hours: After seasonally adjusting the link volume, the volume is split to each hour 

of the day. This allows for more accurate speed calculations (effects of congested hours) and allows 

PPSUITE to prepare the hourly VMT and speeds for input to the MOVES model. 

Example: 

To support speed calculations and emission estimates by time of day, the July weekday volume is 

disaggregated to 24 hourly volumes. Temporal patterns were previously developed from 

PennDOT count data and input to PPSUITE. For the I-80 rural freeway link with morning peak 

volumes similar to evening peak hours (neutral), the following temporal pattern is applied: 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

13579

11131517192123

Hour of Day

Percent of Daily

Using the I-80 segment, typical hourly volumes which result include: 

 8-9 a.m. 6.0% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 833 vehicles/hour (vph) 

 12-1 p.m. 5.0% x (4,111 vehicle .miles/ 0.296mi.) = 694 vph 

 5-6 p.m. 6.3% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 875 vph 
Appendix C-1 15

After dividing the daily volumes to each hour of the day, PPSUITE identifies hours that are unreasonably 

congested. For those hours, PPSUITE then spreads a portion of the volume to other hours within the 

same peak period, thereby approximating the “peak spreading” that normally occurs in such over-capacity 

conditions. 

 

Disaggregation to Vehicle Type: EPA requires VMT estimates to be prepared by source type, reflecting 

specific local characteristics. As a result, for Pennsylvania’s emission inventory runs, the hourly volumes 

are disaggregated to the thirteen MOVES source types based on count data assembled by PennDOT in 

combination with MOVES defaults. 

Example: 

Disaggregation of the total I-80 VMT to the various source types would include the following: 

 

Total Volume 8-9 am = 833 vph 

Source Type Volume 8-9 am: 

Motorcycle 11 0.5% 4 vph 

Passenger Car 21 54.7% 456 vph 

Passenger Truck 31 27.9% 232 vph 

Light Commercial Truck 32 9.3% 78 vph 

Intercity Bus 41 0.1% 1 vph 

Transit Bus 42 0.1% 1 vph 

School bus 43 0.1% 1 vph 

Refuse Truck 51 0.0% 0 vph 

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 2.2% 19 vph 

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 0.3% 2 vph 

Motor Home 54 0.1% 1 vph 

Combination Short-haul Truck 61 1.9% 16 vph 

Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2.6% 22 vph 

 

Speed/Delay Determination 

EPA recognizes that the estimation of vehicle speeds is a difficult and complex process. Because 

emissions are so sensitive to speeds, it recommends special attention be given to developing reasonable 

and consistent speed estimates; it also recommends that VMT be disaggregated into subsets that have 

roughly equal speed, with separate emission factors for each subset. At a minimum, speeds should be 

estimated separately by road type. 

The computational framework used for this analysis meets and exceeds that recommendation. Speeds are 

individually calculated for each roadway segment and hour and include the delays encountered at signals. 

Rather than accumulating the roadway segments into a particular road type and calculating an average 

speed, each individual link hourly speed is represented in the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by 

speed bin file. This MOVES input file allows the specification of a distribution of hourly speeds. 

For example, if 5% of a county’s arterial VHT operates at 5 mph during the AM peak hour and the 

remaining 95% operates at 65 mph, this can be represented in the MOVES speed input file. For the 

model runs, distributions of speeds are input to MOVES by road type and source type by each hour of the 

day; VMT and VHT is accumulated by the same groupings for the application of the emission factors to 

produce resulting emission totals. 
Appendix C-1 16

To calculate speeds, PPSUITE first obtains initial capacities (how much volume the roadway can serve 

before heavy congestion) and free-flow speeds (speeds assuming no congestion) from the speed/capacity 

lookup data. As described in previous sections, this data contains default roadway information indexed 

by the urban/rural code and functional class. For areas with known characteristics, values can be directly 

coded to the RMS database and the speed/capacity data can be overridden. However, for most areas 

where known information is not available, the speed/capacity lookups provide valuable default 

information regarding speeds, capacities, signal characteristics, and other capacity adjustment information 

used for calculating congested delays and speeds. An effort has been made to enhance the RMS data with 

traffic signal locations using other GIS signal data available from PennDOT’s Bureau of Highway Safety

and Traffic Engineering. 

Example: 

The speed/capacity lookup table is used to obtain important data used for link speed calculations. 

For the I-80 link with an urban/rural code = 1 (rural) and a functional class = 1 (freeway), the 

lookup table provides information including the following: 

 freeflow speed = 65 mph 

 capacity = 1800 vph per lane 

 number of signals = 0 (per RMS linkage to GIS traffic signal locations) 

This information is used along with the physical characteristics of the roadway to calculate the 

delay (including congestion) to travel this link during each hour of the day: 

For example: The I-80 link is calculated to have a travel time, including delay of 17.76 seconds 

for the 8-9am hour. 

Total travel time, in vehicle hours, for the 8-9am hour is calculated as: 

VHT (8-9am) = 17.76 seconds x 833vph / 3600 sec/hr = 4.12 vehicle hours. 

The result of this process is an estimated average travel time for each hour of the day for each highway 

segment. The average time can be multiplied by the volume to produce vehicle hours of travel (VHT). 

HPMS and VMT Adjustments 

Volumes must also be adjusted to account for differences with the HPMS VMT totals, as described 

previously. VMT adjustment factors are provided as input to PPSUITE, and are applied to each of the 

roadway segment volumes. These factors were developed from the latest HPMS download (conducted 

triennially); however, they are also applied to any future year runs. The VMT added or subtracted to the 

RMS database assumes the speeds calculated using the original volumes for each roadway segment for 

each hour of the day. 

 
Appendix C-1 17

Example: 

Using the Luzerne County I-80 rural freeway link example, the daily assigned volume is adjusted 

to account for reconciliation with the HPMS VMT. RMS VMT (in AADT) for Luzerne County 

rural freeways totals 962,559 vehicle miles in 2008. HPMS VMT (in AADT) as supplied by 

PennDOT and reported to FHWA totals to 990,088 vehicle miles for the rural freeways. A factor 

is developed by dividing the HPMS VMT by the RMS VMT: 

HPMS adjustment factor for Luzerne County rural freeways = 990,088 / 962,559 = 1.029. 

This factor is held constant in all future years. As an example, this adjustment is made to the 

I-80 freeway link VMT for the 8-9am hour after speed calculations are made, and produces the 

final July weekday VMT for this hour used for Ozone runs. 

I-80 Link VMT (8-9am) = 833vph x 0.296 miles x 1.029 = 254 vehicle miles. 

MOVES Emissions Run 

After computing speeds and aggregating VMT and VHT, PPSUITE prepares traffic-related inputs needed 

to run EPA’s MOVES software, which is used to estimate emission factors in grams of pollutant per 

vehicle mile and to produce total emissions based on input VMT to the model. The process uses 

MOVES2010a, the officially released emissions model that was obtained directly from EPA. 

 

The MOVES inputs prepared by PPSUITE include the following: 

• Vehicle Type VMT. 

• Vehicle Population. 

• VMT fractions. 

• Average speed distributions. 

• Road Type Distribution. 

• Ramp Fractions. 

These files are text formatted files with a *.csv extension. The files are provided as inputs within the 

MOVES county data importer. In addition the remaining MOVES input data including temperatures, 

I/M programs, fuel and vehicle ages are prepared manually outside of the PPSUITE process. 

The MOVES county importer is run in batch mode. This program converts all data files into the MYSQL 

formats used by the MOVES model. At that point a MOVES run specification file (*.mrs) is created 

which specifies options and key data locations for the run. MOVES is then executed in batch mode. 

MOVES can be executed using either the inventory or rate-based approaches. For this highway 

emissions inventory, MOVES is applied using the inventory-based approach. Under this method, actual 

VMT and population are provided as inputs to the model; MOVES is responsible for producing the total 

emissions for the region. Under the rate-based approach, MOVES would produce emission factors, after 

which PPSUITE would apply the emission factors to the link data and calculate total regional emissions. 
Appendix C-1 18

RESOURCES 

MOVES model 

Modeling Page within EPA’s Office of Mobile Sources Website 

(http://www.epa.gov/omswww/models.htm) contains a downloadable model, MOVES users guide and 

other information. 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010. 

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010. 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009. 

Traffic Engineering

Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, presents current knowledge and techniques 

for analyzing the transportation system.

Traffic Data Collection and Factor Development Report, 2008 Data, Pennsylvania Department of 

Transportation, Bureau of Planning and Research. 
Appendix C-1 19

Highway Vehicle Inventory Glossary 

AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic, average of ALL days. 

AWDT: Average Weekday Daily Traffic. 

Basic emission rates: MOBILE emission rates based on the applicable Federal emission standards and 

the emission control technologies characterizing the fleet in various model years. 

Emission rate or factor: Expresses the amount of pollution emitted per unit of activity. For highway 

vehicles, usually in grams of pollutant emitted per mile driven. 

FC: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type (freeway, local, 

etc.). 

Fuel volatility: The ability of fuel components to evaporate, thus entering the atmosphere as pollution. 

Fuel volatility is usually measured as Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch. The lower

the RVP, the less volatile the fuel. 

Growth factor: Factor used to convert volumes to future years. 

HPMS: Highway Performance Monitoring System, PENNDOT’s official source of highway information 

and a subset of RMS. 

I/M: Vehicle emissions inspection/maintenance programs ensure that vehicle emission controls are in 

good working order throughout the life of the vehicle. The programs require vehicles to be tested for

emissions. Most vehicles that do not pass must be repaired. 

MOBILE: The model EPA has developed and which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles. 

MOVES: The latest model EPA has developed with which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles. 

Pattern data: Extrapolations of traffic patterns (such as how traffic volume on road segment types varies 

by time of day, or what kinds of vehicles tend to use a road segment type) from segments with observed

data to similar segments. 

PPSUITE: Post-Processor for Air Quality, a set of programs that estimate speeds and processes MOBILE 

emission rates. 

RMS: Roadway Management System, a database maintained by PENNDOT from traffic counts and field 

visits. 

Segment (also referred to as link): Division of roadway in the PENNDOT Roadway Management 

System. Usually represents 0.5 mile segments of roadway. 

UR: Urban/rural code, applied in data management to identify whether a road segment is urban, small 

urban or rural. 
Appendix C-1 20

VHT: Vehicle hours traveled. 

VMT: Vehicle miles traveled. In modeling terms, it is the simulated traffic volumes times link length. 

Vehicle Type: One of eight types, distinguished primarily by fuel type and/or weight, used in MOBILE 

modeling. 

Source Type: One of thirteen types, distinguished primarily by weight, used in MOVES modeling. 

Road Type: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type 

(rural/urban highways, rural/urban arterials, etc.)

County Data Manager: User interface developed to simplify importing specific local data for a single 

county or a user-defined custom domain without requiring direct interaction with the underlying MySQL 

database. 
APPENDIX C-2

Lancaster County Emission Summary Tables

Appendix C-2-1

2004 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-2

2009 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-3

2018 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Lancaster County Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster 12,014,273 41.2 16.41 42.10

Appendix C-2 2
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster Off-Network - - 9.59 6.49

Rural Restricted Access 914,624 65.0 0.44 4.12

Rural Unrestricted Access 3,400,645 43.3 1.80 9.95

Urban Restricted Access 1,993,576 55.7 0.99 6.45

Urban Unrestricted Access 5,705,429 34.9 3.58 15.10

Total 12,014,273 41.2 16.41 42.10

Appendix C-2 3
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Motorcycle 59,619 0.5% 0.34 2.1% 0.08 0.2%

Passenger Car 6,335,700 52.7% 5.95 36.3% 8.07 19.2%

Passenger Truck 3,231,529 26.9% 6.23 38.0% 8.48 20.1%

Light Commercial Truck 1,076,792 9.0% 2.07 12.6% 3.27 7.8%

Intercity Bus 19,191 0.2% 0.02 0.1% 0.43 1.0%

Transit Bus 2,214 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.04 0.1%

School Bus 6,400 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.06 0.2%

Refuse Truck 9,481 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.17 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 393,493 3.3% 0.63 3.8% 2.94 7.0%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 51,723 0.4% 0.06 0.3% 0.32 0.8%

Motor Home 22,607 0.2% 0.06 0.4% 0.15 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 338,626 2.8% 0.28 1.7% 7.15 17.0%

Combination Long-haul Truck 466,896 3.9% 0.75 4.6% 10.95 26.0%

Total 12,014,273 100.0% 16.41 100.0% 42.10 100.0%

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 4
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Running Exhaust 5.36 32.6% 35.60 84.6%

Start Exhaust 6.01 36.6% 5.24 12.4%

Evap Permeation 0.94 5.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 3.10 18.9% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.45 2.8% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.08 0.5% 0.01 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.08 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.01 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.39 2.3% 1.25 3.0%

Total 16.41 100.0% 42.10 100.0%

County Process

Appendix C-2 5
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Lancaster County Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster 13,179,461 40.1 14.29 33.18

Appendix C-2 6
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster Off-Network - - 9.26 6.12

Rural Restricted Access 886,567 65.0 0.29 2.65

Rural Unrestricted Access 3,676,789 43.3 1.31 7.53

Urban Restricted Access 2,279,330 54.9 0.77 5.07

Urban Unrestricted Access 6,336,775 33.7 2.67 11.81

Total 13,179,461 40.1 14.29 33.18

Appendix C-2 7
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Motorcycle 65,577 0.5% 0.41 2.9% 0.05 0.1%

Passenger Car 6,968,858 52.9% 3.90 27.3% 5.34 16.1%

Passenger Truck 3,542,025 26.9% 6.48 45.3% 8.97 27.0%

Light Commercial Truck 1,196,851 9.1% 2.08 14.6% 3.34 10.1%

Intercity Bus 22,341 0.2% 0.02 0.1% 0.36 1.1%

Transit Bus 1,903 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.02 0.1%

School Bus 5,626 0.0% 0.01 0.0% 0.04 0.1%

Refuse Truck 11,309 0.1% 0.01 0.0% 0.12 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 419,784 3.2% 0.48 3.3% 2.18 6.6%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 56,051 0.4% 0.05 0.3% 0.26 0.8%

Motor Home 24,932 0.2% 0.06 0.4% 0.13 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 366,184 2.8% 0.21 1.4% 4.62 13.9%

Combination Long-haul Truck 498,020 3.8% 0.60 4.2% 7.72 23.3%

Total 13,179,461 100.0% 14.29 100.0% 33.18 100.0%

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 8
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Running Exhaust 3.87 27.1% 27.05 81.5%

Start Exhaust 5.27 36.9% 4.81 14.5%

Evap Permeation 1.21 8.5% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 2.81 19.6% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.69 4.8% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.06 0.4% 0.01 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.07 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.01 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.32 2.3% 1.31 3.9%

Total 14.29 100.0% 33.18 100.0%

County Process

Appendix C-2 9
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Lancaster County Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster 17,752,010 33.9 8.14 18.57

Appendix C-2 10
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lancaster Off-Network - - 5.60 4.85

Rural Restricted Access 1,445,821 64.2 0.16 1.46

Rural Unrestricted Access 4,320,007 42.3 0.51 3.08

Urban Restricted Access 3,471,371 32.0 0.54 3.17

Urban Unrestricted Access 8,514,810 29.3 1.32 6.00

Total 17,752,010 33.9 8.14 18.57

Appendix C-2 11
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Motorcycle 88,131 0.5% 0.48 5.9% 0.05 0.3%

Passenger Car 9,365,600 52.8% 1.94 23.8% 2.22 11.9%

Passenger Truck 4,760,251 26.8% 3.59 44.1% 5.33 28.7%

Light Commercial Truck 1,608,423 9.1% 1.20 14.7% 2.27 12.2%

Intercity Bus 30,600 0.2% 0.01 0.1% 0.23 1.2%

Transit Bus 2,598 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.1%

School Bus 7,626 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.03 0.2%

Refuse Truck 16,598 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.05 0.3%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 574,561 3.2% 0.30 3.6% 1.35 7.3%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 76,646 0.4% 0.04 0.4% 0.18 1.0%

Motor Home 34,959 0.2% 0.04 0.5% 0.12 0.6%

Combination Short-haul Truck 505,505 2.8% 0.09 1.1% 1.86 10.0%

Combination Long-haul Truck 680,513 3.8% 0.45 5.5% 4.86 26.2%

Total 17,752,010 100.0% 8.14 100.0% 18.57 100.0%

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 12
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Lancaster County Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lancaster Running Exhaust 1.79 22.0% 13.71 73.8%

Start Exhaust 3.08 37.9% 2.88 15.5%

Evap Permeation 0.75 9.2% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 1.23 15.1% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.91 11.1% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.02 0.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.04 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.32 3.9% 1.97 10.6%

Total 8.14 100.0% 18.57 100.0%

County Process

Appendix C-2 13
APPENDIX C-3

Lancaster County MOVES Sample Input Files
 	
 

July Weekday MOVES Run Specification File Settings

Sample xml file format<moves>

<importer mode="county" >

<filters>

<geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)

<geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42071" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Lancaster County"/>

</geographicselections>

<timespan>

<year key="2018"/>

<month id="07"/>

<day id="2"/>

<day id="5"/>

<beginhour id="1"/>

<endhour id="24"/>

<aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

</timespan>

<onroadvehicleselections>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

</onroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehicleselections>

</offroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehiclesccs>

</offroadvehiclesccs>

<roadtypes>

<roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

</roadtypes>

</filters>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="42071

_

2018

_

07

_

05

_

JulyWkd_mi"/>

<agedistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
 	
 

<parts>

<sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

(Specify Age Distribution data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\AgeDistribution\10Reg_RepCty\2018\42011_2018_SourceTypeAgeDistribution.csv</f

</sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

</parts>

</agedistribution>

<avgspeeddistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<avgSpeedDistribution>

(Specify Average Speed Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\avgSpeedDistribution.csv</fi

</avgSpeedDistribution>

</parts>

</avgspeeddistribution>

<imcoverage>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<imcoverage>

(Specify I/M Parameters file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\IM\42000_2018_IMCoverage.csv</filename>

</imcoverage>

</parts>

</imcoverage>

<fuel>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<FuelSupply>

(Specify Fuel Supply data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\MOVES2010a\42000_2012_FuelSupply.csv</filename>

</FuelSupply>

<FuelFormulation>

(Specify Fuel Formulation data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\42000_FuelFormulation_MOVES2010a.csv</filename>

</FuelFormulation>

</parts>

</fuel>

<zonemonthhour>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<zoneMonthHour>

(Specify Meteorology data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Meteorology\2008\42071_2008_met.csv</filename>

</zoneMonthHour>

</parts>

</zonemonthhour>

<roadtypedistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<roadTypeDistribution>

(Specify Road Type Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\roadTypeDistribution.csv</fi

</roadTypeDistribution>

</parts>

</roadtypedistribution>

<sourcetypepopulation>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<sourceTypeYear>

(Specify Vehicle Population data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\SourceTypePopulation.csv</fil

</sourceTypeYear>
 	
 

</parts>

</sourcetypepopulation>

<rampfraction>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<roadType>

(Specify Ramp Fractions data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\RampFraction\rampfraction_defaults.csv</filename>

</roadType>

</parts>

</rampfraction>

<vehicletypevmt>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

(Specify Annual VMT and VMT Fractions file names for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<hpmsVTypeYear>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hpmsVTypeYear.csv</fil

</hpmsVTypeYear>

<monthvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_MonthFraction\42071_2018_MonthVMTFraction.csv</fil

</monthvmtfraction>

<dayvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_DayFraction\42071_2018_dayvmtfraction.csv</filenam

</dayvmtfraction>

<hourvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hourvmtfraction.csv</filenam

</hourvmtfraction>

</parts>

</vehicletypevmt>

</importer>

</moves>

Sample mrs file format<runspec>

<description><![CDATA[MOVES2010 RunSpec Created by CENTRAL4 Scenario: LANC 2018 JULWKD JulyWkd Emission Inventory with user's data]]></descriptio

<modelscale value="INV"/>

<modeldomain value="SINGLE"/>

<geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)

<geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42071" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Lancaster County"/>

</geographicselections>

<timespan>

<year key="2018"/>

<month id="07"/>

<day id="5"/>

<beginhour id="1"/>

<endhour id="24"/>

<aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

</timespan>

<onroadvehicleselections>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>
 	
 

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

</onroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehicleselections>

</offroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehiclesccs>

</offroadvehiclesccs>

<roadtypes>

<roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

</roadtypes>

<pollutantprocessassociations>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>
 	
 

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

</pollutantprocessassociations>

<databaseselections>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="early_NLEV" description=""/>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="calevii08" description=""/>

</databaseselections>

<inputdatabase servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

<uncertaintyparameters uncertaintymodeenabled="false" numberofrunspersimulation="0" numberofsimulations="0"/>

<geographicoutputdetail description="COUNTY"/>

<outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

<modelyear selected="false"/>

<fueltype selected="false"/>

<emissionprocess selected="true"/>

<onroadoffroad selected="true"/>

<roadtype selected="true"/>

<sourceusetype selected="true"/>

<movesvehicletype selected="false"/>

<onroadscc selected="false"/>

<offroadscc selected="false"/>

<estimateuncertainty selected="false" numberOfIterations="2" keepSampledData="false" keepIterations="false"/>

<sector selected="false"/>

<engtechid selected="false"/>

<hpclass selected="false"/>

</outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

(Specify output database file name for county being run)

<outputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mo" description=""/>>

<outputtimestep value="Hour"/>

<outputvmtdata value="true"/>

<outputsho value="true"/>

<outputsh value="true"/>

<outputshp value="true"/>

<outputshidling value="true"/>

<outputstarts value="true"/>

<outputpopulation value="true"/>

(Specify input database file name for county being run)

<scaleinputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42071_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi" description=""/>

<pmsize value="0"/>

<outputfactors>

<timefactors selected="true" units="Hours"/>

<distancefactors selected="false" units="Miles"/>

<massfactors selected="false" units="Grams" energyunits="Million BTU"/>

</outputfactors>

<savedata>

</savedata>

<donotexecute>

</donotexecute>

<generatordatabase shouldsave="false" servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

<donotperformfinalaggregation selected="false"/>

<lookuptableflags scenarioid="" truncateoutput="false" truncateactivity="false"/>

<internalcontrolstrategies>

<internalcontrolstrategy classname="gov.epa.otaq.moves.master.implementation.ghg.internalcontrolstrategies.rateofprogress.RateOfProgressStrategy"><![C

useParameters No

]]></internalcontrolstrategy>

</internalcontrolstrategies>

</runspec>