EPA-540-R-03-008

OSWER # 9285.7-76

ASSESSING INTERMITTENT OR VARIABLE

EXPOSURES AT LEAD SITES

Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC 20460

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U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

TECHNICAL REVIEW WORKGROUP FOR LEAD

The Technical Review Workgroup for Lead (TRW) is an interoffice workgroup convened by the 

U.S. EPA Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response/Office of Superfund Remediation and 

Technology Innovation (OSWER/OSRTI). 

Region 8 

Jim Luey 

Denver, CO 

Region 1 

Mary Ballew 

Boston, MA 

Region 2 

Mark Maddaloni 

New York, NY 

Region 4 

Kevin Koporec 

Atlanta, GA 

Region 5 

Patricia VanLeeuwen 

Chicago, IL 

Region 6 

Ghassan Khoury 

Dallas, TX 

Region 7 

Michael Beringer 

Kansas City, KS 

Region 10 

Marc Stifelman 

Seattle, WA 

CO-CHAIRPERSONS 

NCEA/Washington 

Paul White 

MEMBERS 

NCEA/Washington 

Karen Hogan 

NCEA/Cincinnati 

Harlal Choudhury 

NCEA/Research Triangle Park 

Robert Elias 

OSRTI Mentor 

Larry Zaragoza 

Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology 

Innovation 

Washington, DC 

Executive Director 

Richard Troast 

Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology 

Innovation 

Washington, DC 

Associate 

Scott Everett 

Department of Environmental Quality 

Salt Lake City, UT 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 SUMMARY ................................................................. 5

2.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................. 6

2.1 APPROPRIATE USES OF THE TIME-WEIGHTED APPROACH ...................... 9

3.0 TIME WEIGHTING EXPOSURE ................................................. 10

3.1 SIMPLE TIME WEIGHTING .............................................. 11

3.2 VARYING INTENSITY OF EXPOSURE ...................................... 12

3.3 MATRIX APPROACH FOR EVALUATING EXPOSURE ASSUMPTIONS ............... 15

3.4 CALCULATING A PRELIMINARY REMEDIATION GOAL (PRG) ................... 16

4.0 APPLICATIONS OF THE APPROACH WITH THE IEUBK ............................... 19

4.1 CONTRIBUTION OF TRACKED-IN SOIL .................................... 20

4.2 APPLICABILITY OF THE APPROACH TO VARIOUS AGE GROUPS ................. 21

4.2.1 CHILDREN 0-84 MONTHS ....................................... 21

4.2.2 ADOLESCENTS ............................................... 22

4.2.3 ADULTS .................................................... 23

4.3 SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN LEAD EXPOSURE AND PBB ....................... 23

4.4 INCREASED SOIL INGESTION (INCREMENTAL APPROACH) ..................... 24

5.0 AIR PATHWAY ............................................................ 26

6.0 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE APPROACH ............................................ 27

6.1 UNCERTAINTIES IN ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING SOIL INTAKE AND ABSORPTION .... 28

6.2 UNDERESTIMATION OF PEAK PBB ....................................... 28

6.3 UNCERTAINTY IN HEALTH EFFECTS FROM ACUTE, HIGH-LEVEL EXPOSURES ...... 30

6.4 SEASONAL VS. ANNUAL EXPOSURE ...................................... 30

APPENDIX A ............................................................... 31

EXAMPLE 1: RECREATION EXPOSURE SCENARIO FOR PARK ...................... 32

EXAMPLE 2: RECREATIONAL & TRESPASSING EXPOSURE SCENARIO ................ 34

EXAMPLE 3: DAYCARE EXPOSURE SCENARIO FOR INDUSTRIAL PARK DAYCARE ...... 37

EXAMPLE 4: INTERMITTENT NON-RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE FOR ADULTS ............ 39

............................................................... 41

EXAMPLE 5: SEASONAL EXPOSURE: CHILDREN VISITING A SITE 4 MONTHS OF THE YEAR

EXAMPLE 6: LAWN MAINTENANCE NEAR A RIVER ............................. 43

REFERENCES ................................................................. 46

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1.0 SUMMARY 

The methodology presented in this guidance may be appropriate for the assessment of 

lead risks when exposures are not continuous and chronic, such as: 

• Exposure at secondary locations where media concentrations differ from the residential 

scenario (e.g., daycare or other caregiver, agricultural work [farming on contaminated 

land, as well as farming with agrichemicals that contain lead]). In this context, location 

means any area where media concentrations differ. 

• Exposure at neighboring parks or play areas. 

• Less frequent exposure connected with recreational or other site visits (more relevant, but 

perhaps not limited, to older children). These may include: 

• Recreational activity on and around lead sources: contaminated sediments, waste 

piles, etc. 

• Visiting and trespassing scenarios on contaminated site properties. 

This methodology is not intended to replace the approaches recommended for assessing 

standard residential or continuous non-residential exposure scenarios, which are the most 

common applications for the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model (U.S. EPA, 

1994) and the Adult Lead Methodology (ALM) (U.S. EPA, 1996b), respectively. Instead, this 

methodology is intended to be used when certain criteria are satisfied. These criteria are 

illustrated in Figure 1. Because this approach is supplemental to the typical residential approach 

for the IEUBK model (children 0-84 months) and non-residential approach for the ALM (adults), 

users are cautioned that the discussion herein assumes familiarity with the IEUBK model and the 

ALM and guidance. 

This document presents general guidance for many typical scenarios involving 

intermittent, non-residential exposure to lead sites. This guidance is not a regulation itself, nor 

does not it change or substitute for any regulations. Thus, it does not impose legally binding 

requirements on EPA, States, or the regulated community. This guidance does not confer legal 

rights or impose legal obligations upon any member of the public. Interested parties are free to 

raise questions and objections about the substance of this guidance and the appropriateness of the 

application of this guidance to a particular situation. EPA and other decision makers retain the 

discretion to adopt approaches on a case-by-case basis that differ from those described in this 

guidance. Additional complexity may be appropriate for certain sites. Contact the Technical 

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Review Workgroup (TRW) for more information 

(http://www.epa.gov/superfund/programs/lead). 

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2.0 INTRODUCTION 

EPA’s lead models simulate soil lead exposures at a single location of concern (e.g., the 

residence for the IEUBK model, and a single non-residential location for the ALM). This 

guidance addresses how to use the IEUBK model and ALM to assess a wider variety of exposure 

scenarios, including exposure from more than one location, varying intensities of exposure, 

track-in of soil from another location, and intermittent air exposures). This document describes 

the methods, assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties associated with time weighting of 

exposures to account for intermittent or highly varying exposure levels, and several examples of 

how the methodology can be applied at sites. This guidance accounts for cumulative exposures 

when contact with lead-contaminated media at a second defined source in the community is 

likely (in addition to exposures to contaminated media at residences). For children or youths, 

secondary lead-contaminated locations can include playgrounds, recreational areas, daycare 

centers at industrial areas, or traversing contaminated sites on the way to school or play. For 

adults, secondary locations can include repeated exposure to work areas with different levels of 

lead contamination, or exposure to contaminated recreational areas. 

The time-weighting approach, described in this report, can be applied to the IEUBK 

model or the ALM. Because children are the most sensitive receptors, this guidance recommends 

the IEUBK model be used when exposures occur both at the primary residence and at a second 

location accessible to young children. Exposure to soil at the secondary location will result in an 

increase in blood lead (PbB) concentration above the “baseline” PbB concentration attributed to 

the residential sources of lead, if the exposure level or soil ingestion rate at the secondary 

location is higher than that at the residence. The magnitude and duration of the increase in PbB 

concentration will vary depending on the temporal pattern of exposure at the secondary location. 

The increase will be greatest if exposure at the secondary location occurs every day in 

succession over an extended period (e.g., over the summer); in comparison, intermittent 

exposures at the secondary locations (e.g., once every 7 days) would give rise to a smaller PbB 

increase. The TRW has recommended that the IEUBK model and the ALM be applied to 

exposures that exceed a minimum frequency of one day per week and duration of 3 consecutive 

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months (U.S. EPA, 1994). Three months is considered to be the minimum exposure to produce a 

quasi-steady-state PbB concentration. The reliability of the models for predicting PbB 

concentrations for exposure durations shorter than 3 months has not been assessed. 

The approaches described herein are consistent with the conceptual structure of the 

IEUBK model. The IEUBK model (White et al., 1998) was validated using central tendency 

exposure assumptions to predict a geometric mean blood lead (GM PbB) concentration (Hogan 

et al., 1998). The following approaches (i.e., time-weighted averaging and incremental 

approach) tend to be inherently protective to the extent that observed PbB concentrations 

integrate all exposures: residential and secondary locations. 

Several criteria should be satisfied when considering the assessment of cumulative risks 

from exposures at a primary residence and at a secondary location using the time-weighted 

approach. A decision tree (Figure 1) is provided to determine whether this approach is suitable to 

your site. If suitable, this methodology may be used in conjunction with the IEUBK model and 

the ALM to assess a variety of scenarios where activities may result in additional exposure to 

contaminated media. Further characterization of plausible site-specific exposure patterns (e.g., 

exposure duration and likely subpopulations at risk) are also described herein. The TRW 

recommends considering several possible alternative scenarios to characterize worst case or 

upper bound estimates, as well as central tendency risk estimates. Additional complexity can be 

added to site-exposure scenarios if needed; contact the TRW for more information. 

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ALM IEUBK Model Simple Time-weighted Average 

Approach

Minimum exposurefrequency and

duration: 1day per weekfor 3-4 months

The non-residential site of concern has a 

soil lead concentration >400 mg/kg 

Adult Exposure 

(Section 4.2) 

Child exposed is 6-84 

months in age. 

(Section 4.2) 

Does the residential scenario 

adequately cover all exposure 

scenarios? 

Does one non-residential 

scenario adequately cover all 

exposure scenarios? 

Yes No No Yes

ALM 

The non-residential si

IEUBK Model Simple Time-weighted Average 

Approach 

te of concern has a

soil lead concentration >400 mg/kg

Adult Exposure 

(Section 4.2)

Child exposed is 6-84

months in age.

(Section 4.2)

Does the residential scenario

adequately cover all exposure

scenarios?

Child exposed is 6-84

months in age.

(Section 4.2)

Does the residential scenario

adequately cover all exposure

scenarios?

Does the residential scenario

adequately cover all exposure

scenarios?

Does one non-residential

scenario adequately cover all

exposure scenarios?

Does one non-residential

scenario adequately cover all

exposure scenarios?

Yes No No Yes

Figure 1. Decision tree for determining the appropriate approach to assess cumulative lead risk 

from one or more locations. 

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2.1 Appropriate Uses of the Time-Weighted Approach 

The TRW does not recommend time weighting unless the criteria shown in Figure 1 are 

satisfied. If the planned site use is residential, then it is generally not necessary to assess 

additional exposures as long as the other areas are not contaminated. For most residential 

exposure scenarios, the IEUBK model can be used with the residence as the only source of 

exposure. Similarly, because the default ALM is based on assessment of non-residential 

exposure and includes a baseline for residential exposures, most applications will not require 

time weighting to assess exposure to assess a non-residential exposure in combination with the 

residence. Time weighing approaches should only be used in the ALM to assess exposures to 

two or more non-residential locations. 

The IEUBK model and the ALM were designed to simulate PbB concentrations 

associated with exposures of sufficient duration to result in a quasi-steady state (U.S. EPA, 1994, 

1996b). The TRW has recommended 3 months as the minimum duration of exposure that is 

appropriate for modeling exposures that occur no less often than once every 7 days (U.S. EPA, 

1994, 1996b, 1999a). The reliability of the models for predicting PbB concentrations in children 

exposed to lead for durations shorter than 3 months has not been assessed. Because the IEUBK 

model assumes constant exposures during each age-year, it can provide only an approximation of 

quasi-steady-state PbB concentrations during non-continuous exposure scenarios of less than a 

year. As a result of this limitation, short-term fluctuations in PbB concentrations that might occur 

in response to intermittent exposures cannot be explicitly represented in the model and may be 

underestimated if short-term exposures are time averaged over the entire year. For public health 

purposes, it would be reasonable to consider the possibility of adverse health effects from 

acutely elevated PbB concentrations that could occur over a period of a few months. Therefore, 

it is generally recommended that time-weighted exposure inputs for the IEUBK model and ALM 

not be annualized and instead, be calculated only for the duration of the shorter-term exposure 

(with the realization that the IEUBK model will treat such weighted values as applying to a full 

year exposure duration). For example, for an intermittent exposure that occurs each year over a 

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period of 3 months, the time-weighted exposure inputs would not be further adjusted to account 

for the exposure period of 90 days per year (see Example 6 in Appendix). 

Accordingly, the predicted quasi-steady-state PbB concentrations corresponding to site 

exposure (not annualized across 1 year) will tend to be higher than the annual average PbB 

concentrations corresponding to more limited exposure durations. The TRW recommends either 

the IEUBK model or the ALM for assessing risks associated with short-term exposures of 3 

months or longer in duration for the following reasons: 

• An extensive body of research has demonstrated an association between chronic health 

effects of lead and elevated steady-state PbB levels. Currently, the health effects (acute or 

chronic) of peak PbB levels that occur after acute exposures are not well understood. 

• Pharmacokinetic studies of humans (adults) exposed to lead in the diet and of swine and 

other animals exposed to lead in soil indicate that PbB concentrations will achieve a 

pseudo-steady state within 1 to 3 months of repeated daily exposure (U.S. EPA, 1994). 

• Evaluating the exposure over a 3-month or longer time period is consistent with the time 

frame for a time-critical removal action, which is typically defined as a few weeks to 6 

months. 

When using the IEUBK model to evaluate short-term continuous exposure of no less than 

3 months, it is recommended that: 

• When data for individual children or populations at the site are not available, default 

inputs to the model should be used rather than maximum values (e.g., use the default soil 

intake rather than estimates of "high normal" soil intakes or estimates of pica). The 

IEUBK model is intended to provide a plausible distribution of PbB levels that may be 

expected to occur at a site based on site-specific exposure inputs to the model. 

• The model should only be used to predict the quasi-steady-state PbB concentration that 

will be achieved within approximately 3 months of exposure to a given level of lead. It 

has not been validated for predicting the rate at which the PbB concentration will 

decrease after exposure sources are removed or reduced, or how long it will take to reach 

a new quasi-steady state. 

3.0 TIME WEIGHTING EXPOSURE 

The input menus of the IEUBK model and the ALM are somewhat limited for scenarios 

in which exposures to soil lead from multiple sites occur. The IEUBK input menus for “school”, 

“dust”, and “other” assume that exposure to soil from these sources is continuous, and do not 

permit the user to assess intermittent exposures from multiple locations. The TRW recommends 

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that, for reasons of feasibility and maximum clarity, separate calculations be made up front (i.e., 

outside the model) to obtain appropriately weighted average concentrations of soil lead. These 

average values can then be entered directly into the model as fixed media concentrations. 

Calculation of the time-averaged values are described in the next sections. 

3.1 Simple Time Weighting 

There are no “default” recommendations for the relative weights to be used in calculating 

time-weighted media concentrations; rather, the assumptions should be stated clearly and reflect 

plausible estimates of the typical exposure scenarios. The TRW recommends time-weighted 

exposure calculations be applied to derive an average value for the two (or more) locations. In 

this approach, a weighted value is assigned to a medium (e.g., soil) that reflects the fraction of 

outdoor exposure to residential or site soil. The soil concentrations are weighted based on the 

estimated fraction of total soil ingestion that occurs at the residence and at the site. Equation 1 

shows the fundamental equation for time-weighting exposures to soil from the residence and a 

secondary location. 

Equation 1 

where: 

Weighted PbCmedium = Weighted lead concentration in medium (ppm). 

Ci = Media concentration at location i (in this case, i= residential yard or secondary 

location) (e.g., ppm). 

EFi = Exposure frequency at location i (in this case, i= residential yard or secondary 

location) (e.g., days/week). The sum of the days/week spent at the residential yard 

and secondary location is 7. 

The time-weighting factor should be based on the smallest time period in which the 

exposures repeat (the exposure event period). For example, in an exposure scenario in which one 

expects exposures 3 days per week for 210 days, the exposure event period is 7 days since 3 

exposure events occur every 7 days; therefore, the time weighting should be 3 days/7 days NOT 

90 days/210 days (i.e., 3 days/week x 4.3 weeks/month x 7 months) (see Example 6 in 

Appendix). Although the differences in predicted PbB, in this case, are small (<10%), larger 

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differences could arise in more complex time-weighting adjustments that are based on the typical 

calendar units of time, rather than in units that best reflect the exposure event period. As a rule 

of thumb, the latter will be achieved if the time-weighting factor is the number of exposure 

events within the event period cycle: 

Equation 2 

where:

C = Exposure concentration.

Np = Number of exposure events within the exposure event period.

P = Event period.

While Equation 1 may be appropriate for time-weighting exposure media at some sites, 

the intensity and time of contact with contaminated media may vary with the type of activity for 

the different locations. This situation is discussed in the following section. 

3.2 Varying Intensity of Exposure 

The TRW expects that soil ingestion rates will generally tend to be higher for time spent 

outdoors in comparison with time spent indoors. For home daycare scenarios, however, the TRW 

does not generally support the use of different ingestion rates for children’s activities at daycare 

as compared to activities at home, since indoor and outdoor play activities will occur at both 

locations, and there will be a comparable mix of other activities such as meals and "quiet times" 

at both locations. For alternate residence or daycare scenarios, the TRW recommends that 

exposure be apportioned according to waking hours to derive weighted estimates for media 

concentration. For example, in a 24-hour period, a child’s activities might include 12 hours of 

sleep during the night, and an 8- to 10-hour stay at a daycare facility, with the remaining hours 

spent awake at home. In this example, roughly 45% (8 to 9 hours per day x 5 days/week = 40 to 

45 hours/week at daycare and 12 hours/day x 7 days per week = 84 hours/week) of the child’s 

total waking hours may be spent at daycare. This time-estimate of 45% of a child’s waking hours 

at daycare as compared to waking hours spent at home would then be used to derive a weighted 

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soil lead concentration based on the child’s exposure to daycare soils and home soils. The 

fraction of soil dust exposure at each location may be calculated as shown in Equation 3. 

Equation 3 

where:

fi = Fraction of total dust and soil exposure that occurs at location i.

Barring additional site-specific considerations, indoor and outdoor soil ingestion would 

still be applied according to the IEUBK model default Soil/Dust Ingestion Weighting Factor of 

45% soil and 55% dust (U.S. EPA, 1994). To derive an indoor dust concentration when only 

outdoor soil data are available for multiple exposure locations, apply the soil-to-dust mass 

transfer parameter (Msd) to weighted outdoor soil lead concentration. Consideration should be 

given to whether indoor dust sources (particularly lead-based paint) are likely to be present (see 

U.S. EPA, 1994, 1999b). Equations 4, 5, and 6 show how fractional exposure at each location 

can be used to derive time-weighted estimates for soil and dust. 

The TRW recommends that dust samples be collected at both locations for such 

calculations. If this is not possible (e.g., if the assessment is for a proposed future use), an 

estimate of the composite residential indoor soil-derived dust (PbD) concentration may be 

derived using the default soil-to-dust mass transfer parameter if it is reasonable to assume that 

the site-specific conditions permit using the default mass transfer rate (Msd) to apply to the 

situation. In the absence of further information upon which to evaluate the site-specific mass 

transfer of soil into dust, the TRW recommends using the default Msd value of 0.70 to estimate 

PbD levels for this application (U.S. EPA, 1998). This is reasonable if soil lead is the major 

source of indoor PbD and no enrichment of indoor dust is expected (such as by lead-based paint) 

(U.S. EPA, 1994, 1998). 

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The weighted medium concentration is the sum of the fractional concentrations: 

Equation 4 

where:

Weighted PbCmedium = Weighted lead concentration across all exposure locations (ppm).

Ct = Lead concentration for the medium at each location (ppm).

ft = Fraction of time spent at each location (hours/day or days/week).

Example for weighted soil concentration from home and daycare: 

PbSW = ( PbS i × fi ) + (PbS j × f j ) Equation 5 

where:

PbSW = Weighted soil lead concentration across all exposure locations (ppm).

PbSi = Soil lead concentration for each location (i = home; j = daycare) (ppm).

fi = Fraction of time spent at each location (i =home; j = daycare) (hours/day or

hours/week). 

Example for weighted dust concentration from home and daycare using multi-source analysis: 

PbDW = ( PbS Wdaycare × Msddaycare ) + ( PbS W hom e × Msd hom e ) Equation 6 

where:

PbDW = Weighted dust lead concentration (ppm).

PbSWdaycare = Weighted soil lead concentration from daycare (ppm).

Msddaycare = Soil to dust mass transfer parameter (unitless).

PbSWhome = Weighted soil lead concentration from residence (ppm).

Msdhome = Soil to dust mass transfer parameter from residence (unitless).

These time-weighted estimates for PbSW and PbDW can be entered directly into the 

IEUBK model soil and dust media concentration parameter data windows to calculate risk. 

Similarly, weighted soil estimates for two or more non-residential locations can be entered into 

the ALM spreadsheet. 

Note that this approach does not require separate estimates of the amount of time spent 

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outdoors and indoors at both locations. A more elaborate analysis could be constructed that 

attempts to apportion children’s time spent outdoors and indoors among multiple sites (e.g., 

daycare and their homes); however, the TRW believes that any plausible estimates based on this 

approach would depend upon considerable data on the children’s specific activity patterns at 

each site. 

This approach is not appropriate for scenarios involving outdoor areas where ingestion is 

expected to be higher than IEUBK and ALM default values, due to increased soil contact or 

adhesion (e.g., lake or beach). Such scenarios are discussed in Increased Contact with Soil 

(Incremental Approach) (Section 4.4). 

3.3 Matrix Approach for Evaluating Exposure Assumptions 

The TRW suggests that a matrix approach be used for evaluating different exposure 

assumptions. For example, different alternatives may be plausible within a range of waking 

hours spent at each location. The matrix approach permits an evaluation of how activity patterns, 

using proposed soil cleanup levels, impact estimated risks of elevated PbB and proposed cleanup 

goals. By conducting several model runs using the alternate values, the implications of 

alternative assumptions can be evaluated. This approach can also be useful when presenting 

options to risk managers in cases where there are no data to suggest that one exposure scenario is 

more plausible than another. An example of the matrix approach is provided in Table 1. 

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Table 1. Matrix Showing Impact of Various Exposure Assumptions (Number of Site Visits per Week) on Model 

Predicted Blood Lead Concentration (PbB) and Probability of Exceeding 10 :g/dL (P10). 

Exposure scenario PbSW 

1 PbDW 2 GM PbB (:g/dL)3 P10 (%)3 

Zero visits per week (residential only scenario) 100 70 2.5 0.1 

1 site visit per week 171 120 3.1 0.6 

2 site visits per week 242 169 3.7 1.8 

3 site visits per week 314 220 4.3 3.8 

4 site visits per week 386 270 4.9 6.6 

5 site visits per week 458 321 5.5 10.2 

6 site visits per week 528 370 6.1 14.3 

7 site visits per week 600 420 6.6 18.9 

1 PbSW= weighted soil lead concentration; calculated using Equation 1. Residential PbS=100 ppm; site PbS=600 ppm. 2

 PbDW= weighted dust lead concentration; calculated using Equation 5. 3

 Results from IEUBK model. GM= geometric mean. All other parameters were set to IEUBK default values. All runs using 

0-84 months in IEUBK model. (Exposure continued throughout the 84-month period.) 

The example in Table 1 shows that 3-4 site visits per week result in PbB concentrations 

and P10 values near the EPA goal. The next section explains how the time-weighted approach can 

be used to develop a preliminary remediation goal (PRG) for the risk assessment. 

3.4 Calculating a Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) 

The current version of the IEUBK model does not automatically back-calculate 

environmental lead levels. Risk-based target soil concentrations should be determined through 

several runs of the model by varying the media concentrations until the appropriate risk level is 

reached (the iterative approach). However, a risk-based target site concentration can be backcalculated from a site-specific model estimate of the overall soil lead concentration associated 

with a 5% individual risk of elevated PbB (Equation 7). An alternate approach would be to 

assess the secondary location alone using a continuous exposure scenario. In cases where the 

residence (IEUBK) or primary non-residential site (ALM) are less contaminated than the 

intermittent exposure site, assessing the secondary location as a continuous exposure is expected 

to be more conservative than time weighting the exposures. 

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Equations 7 and 8 illustrate how the weighted values can be used to derive a cleanup goal 

based on average soil lead concentration at the site. The time-weighting equation (Equation 1) 

can be expanded to explore site soil concentrations that are risk protective: 

PbS w = EF site × [( fsite × PbS site ) + ( fyard × PbS yard )] + (EF yard × PbS yard ) Equation 7 

where:

PbSsite = Average soil lead concentration at an exposure unit on the site (ppm).

PbSW = Weighted soil lead concentration (ppm).

PbSyard = Average soil lead concentration near home (ppm).

fyard = Fraction of daily outdoor time at local background soil lead concentration (usually near

home) = 1-fsite (dimensionless). 

EFsite = Exposure frequency expressed as fraction of the days/week child visits the secondary 

location during the exposure period. 

EFyard = Exposure frequency expressed as fraction of the days/week child does not visit the 

secondary location during the exposure period = 1-EFsite. 

fsite = Fraction of daily outdoor time spent at the secondary location on days when the site is 

visited (dimensionless). 

Equation 7 may be rearranged to solve for average soil lead concentration at the site. Starting 

with the Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) soil lead screening 

concentration of 400 ppm (associated with a 5% individual risk of elevated PbB when the model 

defaults are relevant) for PbSW, a soil lead concentration for the site can be derived that is 

protective of human health: 

Equation 8 

It is important to recognize that apportioning cleanup across two or more locations is a 

risk management decision and not solely a risk assessment decision. Consequently, the TRW 

suggests that the matrix approach be used to present the range of cleanup options that are health 

18 
protective. Table 2 illustrates how various cleanup options and exposure assumptions may be 

presented to risk managers. 

Table 2. Example of Various Exposure Assumptions and Associated Risk Estimates for Presentation to Risk 

Managers. 

Options Exposure 

assumption PbSW 

1 PbDW 2 GM PbB3

 (:g/dL) P10 (%)3 Site PRG 

(ppm)

4 

1: Site PbS=700

 Residence PbS=100 

3 site visits 

per week 

357 250 4.7 5.4 676 

2: Site PbS=400

 Residence PbS=100 

5 site visits 

per week 

315 220 4.3 3.8 445 

3: Site PbS=300

 Residence PbS=100 

6 site visits 

per week 

271 189 4.0 2.4 388 

1

 PbSW= weighted soil lead concentration; calculated using Equation 1. 2

 PbDW =weighted dust lead concentration; calculated using Equation 5. 3

 Results from IEUBK model. GM=geometric mean. All other parameters were set to IEUBK default values. All 

runs using 0-84 months in IEUBK model. (Exposure continued throughout the 84-month period.) 4

 Preliminary remediation goal (PRG) for the site. Note that PRGs are typically rounded to the nearest 50 or 100 

ppm. The residential soil lead concentration of 100 ppm was unchanged. 

A matrix approach is a useful way to demonstrate to risk managers the health 

protectiveness of PRGs under various exposure assumptions (Table 2). The OSWER soil lead 

guidance limits the individual risk of elevated PbB for a typical child to less than 5%, which is 

not the same as limiting the population risk to less than 5% (see U.S. EPA, 1994). 

4.0 APPLICATIONS OF THE APPROACH WITH THE IEUBK 

In certain cases, additional assumptions may be appropriate for the risk assessment to 

reflect the added contribution of site soils to interior house dust lead when older siblings trespass 

on the site and track soils into the home, thus exposing younger siblings (Section 4.1). The 

approach can be applied to various age groups, including children, teens, and adults (Section 

4.2). Although modeling of seasonal variability in lead exposures is difficult and usually 

unnecessary for characterizing maximum seasonal exposures, the temporal pattern of exposure 

should be considered in assessments (Section 4.3). In addition, the incremental approach can be 

used to assess playground or trespasser scenarios where activities may result in more intense 

19
contact with contaminated soils than at home, daycare, or other residential sites. In such cases, a 

higher fraction of ingestion would appropriately be attributed to the site than would be suggested 

by a calculation based on just apportionment of total waking hours (Section 4.4). 

4.1 Contribution of Tracked-In Soil 

Developing a modeling approach for exposures occurring via soil and dust ingestion from 

multiple locations also has applications to the trespasser exposure scenario. For instances where 

there is a strong possibility of trespassing on the site (generally non-residential), one should 

consider the potential for older children tracking site soils into the home, thereby increasing 

interior dust lead levels and increasing residential exposure for younger children. The IEUBK 

model should only be used to assess risks to children from 0 to 84 months of age. When older 

children (>84 months) are expected to be exposed, the ALM should be used with appropriate 

consideration given to the inputs (see Section 4.2.2). Pets may also track soil into the house, 

which would contribute to dust lead. Contribution of tracked-in, contaminated soil to indoor dust 

is expected to affect default dust concentration if no site-specific data are available. 

The IEUBK model default assumption for the transfer of residential PbS to PbD was not 

developed for a situation where a significant source of lead in soil is distant from the house. 

Some track-in from the site is likely, but all other things being equal, track-in may be less than if 

the soil source is the residential yard. There would likely be fewer incidents of track-in per day 

per person visiting the site in comparison with a residential yard. On the other hand, more 

intense or sustained play and sporting activities at the site could result in larger “loading” of soil 

on the children (or adults) that could be tracked into the home. Activities at the site, such as 

organized sports, could contribute to a greater than usual accumulation of soil to bring back to 

the residence. The extent to which this soil is actually transferred into the residence would 

depend on a variety of site- and individual-specific factors. For example, soil adhering to 

20
outerwear has more time to drop off clothing the more distant the site is from the residence. On 

the other hand, if weather conditions are damp, then the maximum mass of soil picked up is 

more likely to be tracked back to the residence. For more information on track-in of 

contaminated outdoor soil, see Bornschein et al. (1985) and Matte et al. (1991). 

Without some actual measurements of house PbD concentrations under these conditions, 

estimates of PbD concentrations are uncertain. Given this uncertainty, the TRW recommends 

that the fraction of interior dust attributable to the non-residential site should not exceed the 

fraction of the trespassing child’s total soil exposure thought to come from the site. For example, 

if the end assumption is that 20% of the trespassing child’s combined soil exposure (home + site) 

is attributed to soil coming from the site, then it is probably appropriate to assume that no more 

than 20% of the interior dust comes from the site. 

4.2 Applicability of the Approach to Various Age Groups 

4.2.1 Children 0-84 months 

Younger children may not be expected to visit a site; however, in some cases, it may be 

appropriate to consider exposures to these children to assess increased exposure in these 

situations. As described in the preceding section on track-in, children who do not visit the site 

can have exposure to soil brought home from the site by older children and adults. Also, cases 

have been documented where older children brought younger children to visit areas where adult 

supervision would be desired. To assess such scenarios, the IEUBK model (as previously 

described) can be run using the increased media concentrations of lead at the residence. 

Before choosing a cleanup goal, it is useful to consider both the entire population in 

general and the most highly-exposed individual in developing a set of use patterns. In the context 

of IEUBK model runs, exposure to lead-contaminated media differs by age. When running the 

21
IEUBK model, one can model six exposure patterns, each with a different 1-year age range of 

exposure to the composite PbSW, and each having all other age ranges at the default residential 

levels. For example, exposure at the site during 1 year can be considered for each of six different 

age groups: 12-24, 24-36, 36-48, 48-60, 60-72, and 72-84 months. An example of this approach 

is shown in Table 3. 

Table 3. IEUBK Model Risk Estimates for Various Age Groups. Estimated Geometric Mean (GM) PbB and 

Probability of PbB >10 :g/dL (P10) Based on IEUBK Model Simulations of Weighted Average Exposures to Site 

and Residential Soils1 

Age range 

(months) 

1 site visit/week 

PbSW 

2

 = 460 ppm 

PbDW 

3

 = 322 ppm 

2 site visits/week 

PbSW = 910 ppm 

PbDW = 637 ppm 

4 site visits/week 

PbSW = 1809 ppm 

PbDW = 1267 ppm 

GM PbB4 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

GM PbB 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

GM PbB 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

0-84 5.5 10.3 8.8 39.4 14.2 77.0 

0-12 5.7 11.4 8.6 37.8 13.3 72.5 

12-24 6.9 21.5 11.0 58.3 17.5 88.2 

24-36 6.5 17.6 10.4 53.1 16.5 85.8 

36-48 6.2 15.1 10.0 49.8 16.1 84.5 

48-60 5.1 7.8 8.3 34.9 13.7 74.8 

60-72 4.4 4.0 7.1 23.0 11.7 63.2 

72-84 3.9 2.4 6.3 16.1 10.4 53.5 

1

 PbSsite = 3159 ppm, PbSresidential = 10 ppm. Estimates apply to quasi-steady-state elevations in PbB 

concentrations during the period of exposure (i.e., no “annualization” of PbSW or PbDW). 2

 PbSW= weighted soil lead concentration; calculated using Equation 1. 3

 PbDW= weighted dust lead concentration; calculated using Equation 5. 4

 Results from IEUBK model. GM= geometric mean. All other parameters were set to IEUBK default 

values. All runs using 0-84 months in IEUBK model. (Exposure continued throughout the 84-month 

period.) 

Table 3 shows how this approach can illustrate the impact of exposure on a most highly 

exposed individual, which is typically the toddler. Depending on the conditions of the site, 

bounding the exposures in this way may be appropriate to illustrate the possible risk to the likely 

receptor population. 

22
4.2.2 Adolescents 

In general, the TRW expects that cleanup goals designed to be protective for children less 

than 84 months old, the most sensitive subpopulation for chronic health effects, will be at least as 

protective for older children. Although the IEUBK model is limited to 0-84 months, the ALM 

could be used to assess older children. When using the ALM to assess older children, however, it 

may be necessary to adjust default ALM values for ingestion rate and bioavailability (which are 

defined for adults) to appropriate values for the exposed population. Users should refer to the 

Frequently Asked Questions on the ALM for more discussion on the evaluation of the adolescent 

scenario (http://www.epa.gov/superfund/programs/lead/adult.htm). While the IEUBK and the 

ALM results could be considered bounds for the risk of elevated PbBs and for cleanup goals for 

adolescents with direct exposure to site soil, the toxicokinetics of adolescents are not well 

understood, so that any scaling, such as linear interpolation, between the predictions of the two 

models cannot be supported. Contact the TRW for guidance concerning use of the ALM in such 

instances. 

4.2.3 Adults 

To estimate PbBs for adult populations exposed to a single non-residential scenario, the 

default (i.e., not time weighted) ALM is recommended. As with the IEUBK model, it is 

necessary to perform calculations outside the model to derive weighted soil lead concentrations 

for use in the ALM if contact with contaminated media occurs at more than one non-residential 

location. Note that if the site scenario includes a residence, then the IEUBK model should be 

used to assess that location; the ALM should only be used in this context when the two sites are 

both non-residential (e.g., adult exposures to contamination in a warehouse and a factory). As 

noted earlier, consideration should be given to track-in of soil from these areas to the home. 

Example 4 in the appendix to this report provides an example of how the ALM can be used to 

assess intermittent exposures. 

23
4.3 Seasonal Variability in Lead Exposure and PbB 

The IEUBK model was designed to consider routine seasonal variability in media 

exposures for children. Although the model was calibrated with environmental data that were 

taken to represent sustained daily exposures, the seasonal fluctuation of PbB concentrations are 

suspected to represent seasonal variability in both exposure and physiological factors. In some 

geographic regions of the U.S., children may have less direct exposure to soil in the colder 

months, and their decreased outdoor activity also corresponds to a lower contribution of soil to 

indoor dust lead. During the winter months in some regions of the U.S., exposures to exterior 

soil may be greatly reduced because the ground is frozen and covered with snow. Interior dust 

lead and PbB concentrations were as much as 50% lower in the coldest months in Boston (U.S. 

EPA, 1995). Nevertheless, exposure to soil may not be negligible during the winter months, 

occurring outdoors or from soil tracked into the home. 

The calibration and validation data sets that have been used with the IEUBK model were 

generated cross-sectionally, including children with at least 3 months of residency at the sampled 

locations, at a time of year (late summer) when soil exposure and PbB concentrations were 

expected to be at annual maximum (Hogan et al., 1998). IEUBK predictions are therefore 

expected to approximate the PbB concentrations related to the higher lead exposure levels in an 

annual cycle of lead exposure, where measured lead concentrations in soil are expected to 

remain relatively constant. In addition, from a public health perspective, it may be more 

appropriate to focus on the seasonal maximum exposures than to try to quantify variability in 

seasonal exposures. Consequently, users should focus analyses on plausible exposure estimates 

during seasons when PbB concentrations are likely to peak. 

4.4 Increased Soil Ingestion (Incremental Approach) 

Soil ingestion may be greater than default levels in connection with at least some contactintensive activities. For example, soil contact and ingestion may be increased at sites where 

increased soil adherence would be expected, such as at contaminated waterfront areas or when 

dirt biking on contaminated areas. Because of the potential for higher contact rates with soil at 

the site (e.g., when children dirt bike on a slag pile), scenarios entailing additional soil ingestion 

24
may be warranted. In the absence of site-specific data, risk assessors may want to explore the 

impact of a variety of reasonable soil ingestion rates. A recommended approach would be to 

bound risk estimates using several reasonable soil ingestion rates. Additional guidance on soil 

ingestion is available from U.S. EPA’s Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 1997). 

A hypothetical example would be to set the default soil ingestion rates as a lower bound. 

A reasonable medium exposure scenario of 145% of default rates could also be assumed to occur 

at the site (i.e., the default, plus an additional 45% to account for outdoor activities). For a 

Reasonable Maximum Exposure (RME) scenario, the 200 mg/day value that has been used in 

Superfund assessments as a high average daily soil ingestion rate could be added to the model’s 

default total dirt ingestion rates. 

Just as model limitations require external calculations to achieve the composited PbSW 

and PbDW input values for multiple-site scenarios, so must composite ingestion rates be 

calculated external to the model when non-residential ingestion rates are reasonably expected to 

exceed model default values (Table 4). The methodology suggested herein is a somewhat 

simplified and conservative approach, since it may in fact overstate the child’s total daily 

exposure time (because time spent at the secondary location would be time that is not spent at 

the residence). 

25
Table 4. Examples of a Range of Hypothetical Dirt (soil/dust) Ingestion Rates Associated with Exposure at NonResidential Sites. 

Age 

group 

(months) 

Total dirt ingestion rate (g/day) 

Low scenario 

ingestion = IEUBK default 

Medium scenario 

ingestion= 1.45 * IEUBK default 

High scenario 

ingestion = 200 mg/day + IEUBK 

default 

0-111 0.085 0.085 0.085 

12-23 0.135 0.196 0.335 

24-35 0.135 0.195 0.335 

36-47 0.135 0.195 0.335 

48-59 0.100 0.145 0.300 

60-71 0.090 0.131 0.290 

72-84 0.085 0.123 0.285 

1

 Additional soil contact is not applicable to children <1 year, since they are not likely to have significant 

additional exposure to site soil. 

2

 The high exposure scenario is shown for consistency with OSWER guidance on assessing risk under the 

Reasonable Maximum Exposure (RME) scenario. 

Table 4 provides an example of a plausible range of hypothetical total dirt ingestion rates 

associated with greater soil ingestion rates. An example of how the additional soil ingestion rate 

values are incorporated in an assessment is shown in Example 2 of the Appendix. 

5.0 AIR PATHWAY 

In some instances, receptors do not need to be at different locations to have intermittent 

exposures. The IEUBK model was designed to predict PbB concentrations associated with 

relatively stable, long-term exposures that result in quasi-steady-state PbB concentrations (e.g., 

relatively constant exposures of at least 3 months in duration). The model has not been evaluated 

for predicting PbB concentrations that might occur with rapidly varying exposures, such as those 

that often result from air emissions from remediation activities at contaminated sites where lead 

is a major contaminant. On the other hand, varying air lead exposures of an episodic nature may 

be assessed using a time-weighted approach. In this case, continually changing concentrations 

that occur each week or within a day could be assessed using the IEUBK model or the ALM. 

26
The potential for recontamination of soil and dust by ongoing deposition of airborne lead should 

also be considered. 

To simulate intermittent exposures, a variation of Equation 1 using air instead of soil can 

be used to derive time-averaged air lead concentrations. In the case of air, the extra exposure 

would be time averaged and added to exposure to the baseline air concentration which can be set 

as IEUBK default (0.1 :g/m3) or based on upwind site sampling. An example of this approach 

for adults (using the ALM) is shown in Equation 9. 

PbAW = PbAsite ⋅ EF + PbA base ⋅ ( AT − EF) Equation 9

AT 

where:

PbAW = weighted air lead concentration (:g/m3).

PbAsite = observed or expected air lead concentration from the site (:g/m3

).

PbAbase = baseline air lead exposure concentration that would be expected to occur in the absence

of site exposure (0.1 :g/m3, or based site-specific data). 

EF = the exposure frequency (days/week). 

AT = the averaging time (days/week). 

The intermittent exposure scenario and time-weighting equations are also applicable to 

fugitive emission scenarios. At some sites air data may be lacking, yet it would be helpful to take 

fugitive emissions from lead-contaminated soil into account. One way to do this is to estimate 

the fugitive emissions, then use that equation to modify the cleanup goal for lead. Additional 

information concerning the fugitive emission pathway including equations specific to site 

activities are available from the Soil Screening Guidance (U.S. EPA, 2001) in which soil- and 

site-specific Particulate Emission Factors (PEFs) modify cleanup goals. For example, the 

Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) for a site can be derived when direct soil contact and 

fugitive emissions come from two different sources of lead-contaminated material. In this 

example, the residence is located near a pile of lead-contaminated fines (subject to fugitive dust 

contamination) and the child’s playground (located in an area apart from the residence) has been 

contaminated with fill material containing lead. In this example, time-weighted averages would 

be used in the IEUBK (because the residence is used) to account for soil exposure in 

combination with the fugitive dust equation from the Soil Screening Guidance. 

27
6.0 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE APPROACH 

Various factors could contribute to either an overestimate or an underestimate of the PbB 

concentration when weighted exposures to media concentrations are used as inputs to the 

IEUBK model and the ALM. These factors need to be considered in interpreting model 

predictions that are based on such an approach. Several areas of uncertainty should be 

considered, including absorption assumptions (Section 6.1), peak blood lead for successive 

exposure scenarios (Section 6.2), health effects from acute high-term exposures (Section 6.3), 

and seasonal versus annual exposure (washout) (Section 6.4). 

6.1 Uncertainties in Assumptions Regarding Soil Intake and Absorption 

Estimates for soil and dust ingestion rates used in the model are intended as average daily 

rates for typical children. Depending on play routines, sports activities, and soil exposure while 

at the site, actual ingestion may exceed typical average values. The TRW recommends that users 

consider the potential for alternative higher ingestion rates that may occur during soil contactintensive activities, and include risk calculations using these rates in the assessment to bound the 

results (see Section 4.4 and table 4). Also, the IEUBK model predicts that the relative absorption 

fractions will decrease when higher quantities of lead are ingested. Thus, time averaging may 

result in a higher predicted absorption fraction than would be predicted for periods when actual 

intakes are higher than the time-weighted average intake. 

6.2 Underestimation of Peak PbB for Successive Exposure Scenarios 

If exposures to contaminated media from a secondary location were to occur over a 

number of days in succession, the cumulative effect would be a temporary elevation of the PbB 

concentration during and after this period of exposure. This elevation may be greater in 

magnitude (though of shorter duration) than that estimated using a time-weighted average 

approach, because the IEUBK model can provide only a quasi-steady-state approximation to 

PbB concentrations during non-continuous exposure scenarios (the IEUBK model only allows 

for changing exposure variables annually). A hypothetical example of the difference in predicted 

PbB when using different approaches to deriving a time-weighted average to annualize an 

intermittent exposure is shown in Figure 2. 

28
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 1 2 3

Blood Lead (μg/dL) 

Exposure season starts Exposure season ends 

Annual average 

blood lead 

concentration 

Exposure season 

average blood lead 

concentration 

Quasi-steady state for 

the exposure season 

Time 

Figure 2. Hypothetical blood lead concentrations illustrating difference between two approaches 

to modeling intermittent exposure when exposure is time weighted for models limited to annual 

averages. The graphed line shows expected blood lead concentration resulting from an 

intermittent exposure without time weighting. The dotted line shows the results of time 

weighting the exposure soil concentration only over the exposure season (ignores washout 

period). The solid line shows the result of time weighting the exposure soil concentration over 

the year (accounts for washout period). Note that exposure to lead is not zero when the seasonal 

exposure ends, but returns to baseline exposure. The second exposure is lower than the first 

because a childhood scenario was used in which the ingestion rate for the second year is lower 

than the first. 

29
6.3 Uncertainty in Health Effects from Acute, High-Level Exposures 

The time-weighted approach assumes that the adverse health effects of lead are related to 

long-term average PbB concentrations. While this has been established for chronic effects of 

lead, the health effects (acute or chronic) of elevated PbB levels that occur after acute exposures 

resulting in short-term PbB concentrations less than 20 :g/dL are not well understood. 

6.4 Seasonal vs. Annual Exposure 

For seasonal exposures that are restricted to only a fraction of a year (e.g., summer 

months), some of the lead burden accumulated during the exposure season will be eliminated 

during the intervening months between seasonal exposures. However, the IEUBK model cannot 

simulate this loss of lead; model predictions correspond to a full year of exposure to a constant 

exposure level regardless of the actual exposure period. For seasonal exposures that occur in 

successive years, the TRW recommends that exposures be simulated for individual age-years and 

predicted blood lead concentrations for each age-year of exposure be averaged. 

For risk assessment purposes, the impact of repeated shorter-term site exposure on an 

annual basis is important to consider. This can be approached by first considering the case where 

exposure occurs only once and is not repeated annually. Such an exposure estimate would also 

characterize children who return to the site for a period each year, and whose added blood lead 

burden is eliminated during the intervening months between successive annual exposures. 

Illustrations of this point are presented in Examples 5 (one-year exposure) and 6 (multi-year 

exposure) of the Appendix. Example 6 shows how different risk management decisions or sitespecific conditions can affect the risk calculation approach. 

Both examples highlight the importance of closely examining the exposure assumptions 

for the site and how those exposure assumptions are used as parameter estimates for the IEUBK 

model and ALM. The TRW recommends running the models with several reasonable sets of 

assumptions (plausible combinations) to present a range of possible risks or cleanup options for 

the site. 

30
APPENDIX A

Case Studies

This appendix provides case studies that illustrate the considerations inherent in assessing 

risks posed by lead from a variety of intermittent exposure scenarios using both the ALM and the 

IEUBK model. The terms used herein are defined in the body of the report. 

31
EXAMPLE 1: RECREATION EXPOSURE SCENARIO FOR PARK 

The site uses in this scenario are assumed to be primarily recreation. A proposal is being 

considered whereby the site would be developed as recreational area. The goal of the cleanup is 

to minimize lead exposure for children who would visit the site during the warmer months for 

recreation. 

Goals: 

1. Calculate the PbB and P10 risk estimates for children up to age 84 months. 

2. Estimate the lead concentration in site soil that would result in a 5% probability of 

exceeding a PbB concentration of 10 :g/dL (i.e., P10 #5%). 

Assumptions for the scenario: 

1. Children have exposure to site soil each day the site is visited, for a total of 52 

days spread evenly over 1 year, 6 months, or 3 months (i.e., 1, 2, or 4 days per 

week, respectively); exposure during the remaining waking hours of the day is 

indoors at the residence. 

2. The lead concentrations of site and residential soil are 2000 and 50 ppm, 

respectively. 

The above assumptions yielded PbSW and PbDW concentrations for 1, 2, or 4 visits/week 

to the site (the default Msd of 0.70 to estimate PbD levels for this application). These were used 

as inputs to the IEUBK model, along with default values for all other model variables. In 

particular, residential dust concentrations were calculated using the weighted mean soil 

concentration to which the child was assumed to be exposed and the model default assumptions 

for the mass transfer of soil into house dust. In all cases, all other inputs were kept at default 

values, including soil ingestion rates. Note that for simplicity, these calculations assume that 

total soil ingestion occurs at the default rate. The predicted geometric mean PbB concentrations 

and estimates of the probability (%) of exceeding 10 :g/dL (P10) for children 0-84 months old 

are shown in Table A-1. 

32
Table A-1. Matrix Showing Presentation of Various Exposure Assumptions for Evaluation by Risk Managers. 

Exposure scenario PbSW 

1

 (ppm) PbDW 

2

 (ppm) GM PbB (:g/dL)3 P10 (%)3 

Zero visits per week 50 35 1.9 0.03 

1 site visit per week 329 230 4.5 4.3 

2 site visits per week 607 425 6.7 19.3 

4 site visits per week 1164 815 10.5 53.8 

1

 PbSW weighted soil lead concentration; calculated using Equation 1. 2

 PbDW weighted dust lead concentration; calculated using Equation 6. 3

 Results from the IEUBK model. GM = geometric mean. Residential PbS=50 ppm; Site PbS=2000 ppm. All runs 

using 0-84 months in IEUBK model. 

As shown in Table A-1, scenarios having site exposures that occur 2 or more times per 

week produce risk estimates that exceed the 5% goal. Multiple iterations of the IEUBK model 

were run using all model defaults to identify the weighted PbS concentrations corresponding to 

the P10 of no more than 5% for children 0–84 months of age (residential PbS was held at 50 

ppm). Equation 7 was then used to calculate cleanup goals corresponding to the three use 

patterns. These cleanup goals are summarized in Table A-2. For exposure scenarios in which site 

visits occurred on 1, 2, or 4 days per week, the risk-based soil goals were 2000, 1050, and 550 

ppm, respectively as calculated by Equation 8. 

Table A-2. Matrix Showing Possible Site Cleanup Goals Based on Various Exposure Assumptions. 

Exposure Scenario PbSW 

1

 (ppm) PbDW 

2

 (ppm) GM PbB (:g/dL)3 P10 (%)3 

1 site visit per week 

PbS site = 2000 ppm 

329 230 4.5 4.3 

2 site visits per week 

PbS site = 1050 ppm 

336 235 4.5 4.5 

4 site visits per week 

PbS site = 550 ppm 

335 235 4.5 4.5 

1

 PbSW weighted soil lead concentration; calculated using Equation 1. 2

 PbDW weighted dust lead concentration calculated using Equation 5. 3

 Results from the IEUBK model. GM = geometric mean. Residential PbS held at 50 ppm. All runs using 0-84 

months in IEUBK model. 

33
EXAMPLE 2: RECREATIONAL & TRESPASSING EXPOSURE SCENARIO 

The site in this scenario is a slag pile in an area where the use is assumed to be primarily 

industrial and commercial. Although the site does not contain a developed recreational area, the 

slag pile is an attractive nuisance and children have been observed dirt biking on the hill. The 

goal of the soil cleanup level is to minimize lead exposure for children who would visit the site 

during the warmer months for recreation or possibly trespassing. 

The State standard for non-residential areas is 1000 ppm for lead. This soil lead 

concentration was used to evaluate the possible impacts of child exposure. It was averaged with 

a default residential soil lead concentration of 100 ppm, based on the assumption that 30% of 

soil ingested would be from the site and 70% from the home, yielding a PbSW of 370 ppm. This 

weighted concentration was not averaged over the entire year, since exposures were expected to 

occur for only part of the year (4 continuous months). In all cases, other model inputs were kept 

at default values, including soil ingestion rates (PbDW = 0.7 * PbSW). Note that for simplicity, 

these calculations assume that total soil ingestion occurs at the default rate. 

In addition to typical residential exposure to lead in soil, it was expected that dirt biking 

would result in additional soil ingestion. The assumption that 10% of waking hours (1.2 hours/12 

hours) could be spent at the site was incorporated into the calculations to imply that an additional 

10% of typical total dirt ingestion would occur at the site. 

The following assumptions were made in running the IEUBK model: 

1. Site exposure would include an additional 10% of typical total dirt ingestion. 

2. Daily lead intake over the 4 months was averaged over 12 months for input to the IEUBK 

model. 

3. An exposure period of 112 days/year was selected (7 days/week for 16 weeks). 

4. Residential exposure was characterized by the IEUBK default exposure levels, since no 

site-specific data for the residence were available. This is appropriate for 0-11 month 

children, because they are not expected to have significant contact with site soil based on 

the likely exposure pathway. 

To evaluate the possible impact of soil ingestion assumptions and in the absence of sitespecific information concerning soil ingestion, various soil ingestion assumptions were explored 

34
to bound the results. For the purposes of this assessment, the default total soil ingestion rates 

were used to bound the low-exposure scenario. Because of the potential for higher contact rates 

with soil at the site, additional contact-intensive scenarios are also warranted. A low-exposure 

scenario using the IEUBK model defaults was chosen. For a medium-exposure scenario, the total 

dirt ingestion rates would be 145% of default rates. For a high-exposure scenario, an additional 

200 mg/day was used. The various exposure assumptions are shown in Table A-3. 

Table A-3. Calculation of a Plausible Range of Dirt (soil/dust) Ingestion Rates for Site to Bound Risk Estimates 

When Site-Specific Soil Ingestion is Unknown. 

Age group 

(months) 

Total dirt ingestion rates (g/day) 

Low exposure scenario Medium exposure scenario High exposure scenario2 

Total=default Total=145% of default total Total=0.200 g/day+default 

0-111 0.085 0.085 0.085 

12-23 0.135 0.195 0.335 

24-35 0.135 0.195 0.335 

36-47 0.135 0.195 0.335 

48-59 0.100 0.145 0.300 

60-71 0.090 0.131 0.290 

72-84 0.085 0.125 0.285 

1

 Additional soil contact is not applicable to children <1 year, since they are not likely to have significant 

additional exposure to site soil. 

2

 The high exposure scenario is based on adding 200 mg/day to the default ingestion rates, consistent with 

OSWER guidance on assessing risk for Reasonably Maximally Exposed (RME) individuals. 

Since daily exposure to lead in soil for 4 months is expected to produce a pseudo-steadystate PbB concentration, the daily average soil concentration over the 4-month period for this 

application is the most relevant input to the IEUBK model. Use of an annualized daily 

concentration does not allow for estimating the body burden that results during sustained shorter 

periods of relatively higher exposure. Thus, the TRW expects a serious underestimation of the 

actual PbB distribution to result from averaging the site exposure over the entire year. However, 

IEUBK predictions using the average daily exposure level for a 4-month period might be 

expected to be somewhat of an overestimate, since the model was designed to project PbB 

35
concentrations from sustained daily exposure over the first 84 months of childhood. This built-in 

assumption of sustained, chronic daily exposure does not allow for a wash-out period between 

the annual 4-month exposures, which would be associated with the exposure scenario for this 

site. EPA generally anticipates that there will be some seasonal fluctuation of exposure 

conditions. IEUBK predictions are therefore expected to approximate the PbB concentrations 

related to the higher lead exposure levels in an annual cycle of lead exposure, where measured 

lead concentrations in soil are expected to remain relatively constant. 

Table A-4. Risk Estimates for the Various Alternate Soil Ingestion Scenarios Using Each Age Group in the IEUBK 

Model Using Daily Average Soil Concentration over the 4-Month Period. 

Age group (months) 

Risk estimates for each ingestion scenario1 

Default (low) Medium High 

GM PbB 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

GM PbB 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

GM PbB 

(:g/dL) 

P10 

(%) 

0-11 5.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 

12-23 6.0 13.6 7.4 26.0 10.3 52.8 

24-35 5.6 10.8 7.2 23.8 10.4 53.5 

36-47 5.3 8.9 6.8 20.9 10.0 50.3 

48-59 4.4 4.2 5.7 11.6 9.2 42.8 

60-71 3.8 2.0 4.9 6.3 8.4 35.6 

72-84 3.4 1.6 4.4 3.9 7.8 29.5 

1

 IEUBK inputs were PbSW = 370 ppm and PbDW = 259 (using Equation 5). All others were default. GM = 

geometric mean. P10 = probability of exceeding 10 :g/dL. 

This matrix demonstrates to the risk manager that the State Applicable or Relevant and 

Appropriate Requirements (ARAR) is not protective for these exposure scenarios. 

36
EXAMPLE 3: DAYCARE EXPOSURE SCENARIO FOR INDUSTRIAL PARK DAYCARE 

The site in this scenario is a proposed daycare facility in an area that is zoned for 

industrial and commercial land use. The goal is to determine whether the proposed soil cleanup 

for the site (700 ppm) is protective of children exposed at the proposed daycare facility. 

The following assumptions were considered plausible: 

1. Children may be exposed to lead in exterior soil and interior dust both at the 

daycare facility as well as at home (located outside the site). 

2. The concentration of lead in exterior soil at the daycare facility is 700 ppm, the 

proposed cleanup level for the site. 

3. A child visits the daycare facility 5 days per week and stays home 2 days per 

week. 

4. Site sampling indicates a mean residential soil concentration of 100 ppm. 

After estimating media concentrations for each location, the fraction of waking hours that 

a child spends in each location should be estimated to determine a reasonable estimate of the 

time-weighted average concentration across all locations. The fraction of waking hours for each 

location then can be used to calculate the time-weighted average soil and dust concentrations 

that can be entered directly into the IEUBK model. 

Apportioning exposure across locations according to hours awake: 

Note that the equation needs to be modified to account for the hours that a child spends 

on different days at the location. This would be true for the home (weekday versus weekend 

activities); however, the home fraction can be more easily calculated by subtracting the fraction 

of hours spent at other locations from 1.0; thus, the remaining time spent awake at home: 

37
Deriving a weighted soil concentration from home and daycare (Equation 5): 

PbS W = (PbS Home × FHome ) + ( PbS Daycare × FDaycare ) 

PbS W = (100 ppm × 0.52 ) + (700 ppm × 0. 48 )

PbS W = 52 ppm + 336 ppm 

PbS W = 388 ppm 

The estimated ratios of indoor dust lead concentration are applied to soil lead 

concentration (IEUBK default for Msd is 0.7). Because the residences were relatively new homes, 

lead-based paint was not expected to contribute to indoor dust. 

Example for weighted dust concentration from home and daycare: 

PbD W = PbS W × Msd 

PbD W = 388 ppm × 0. 7 

PbDW = 272 ppm 

According to the IEUBK model, these weighted concentrations result in a GM PbB of 4.9 

:g/dL and a P10 of 6.7%. These results suggest that the proposed soil lead concentration at the 

daycare facility (700 ppm) would not be protective of children. 

38
EXAMPLE 4: INTERMITTENT NON-RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE FOR ADULTS 

The following example shows how the ALM can be used to assess risk posed by lead 

contamination at a non-residential site under two different exposure scenarios. The site soil lead 

concentration is 500 ppm indoors and 1000 ppm outdoors. In this example, a utility worker is 

laying new line at a contaminated site. The new line is expected to take 3 days/week for 13 

weeks during the year. The worker is otherwise employed indoors at the site for the other 2 days 

of the week. Site data suggest that the worker is involved in contact-intensive jobs both indoors 

(sweeping) and outdoors (digging); thus, a site-specific soil central tendency ingestion rate of 

100 mg/day is appropriate for both indoors and outdoors. 

To calculate the time-weighted soil concentration to which the worker is exposed, the 

following equation applies (Equation 1): 

PbSW = (PbSIndoors x EFIndoors) + (PbSOutdoors x EFOutdoors) 

PbSW = (500 ppm x 2 days/7 days) + (1000 ppm x 3 days/7 days) 

PbSW = 142.8 ppm + 428.6 ppm 

PbSW = 571 ppm 

This PbSW can then be entered into the ALM with the following changes: 

Averaging time (AT) = 91 days (13 weeks x 7 days/week). 

Exposure frequency (EF) = 65 days (13 weeks x 5 days/week). 

Site-specific soil ingestion rate of 100 mg/day for both indoors and outdoors. 

Baseline PbB0 and GSD for the range of inputs were selected from NHANES III 

analysis to span the range from all races/ethnic groups in the U.S. to the Mexican 

American group in the U.S. 

Note that residential exposure to lead is not reflected in this time weighting calculation, 

since the residential contribution is reflected in baseline blood lead. To assess residential lead 

contamination, the IEUBK model should be used. The ALM would be run as shown in Table A5. The results suggest a range of P10 values for the fetus depending on the site conditions (GSD 

for homogeneous or heterogeneous site exposure histories of the population at the site). Because 

the site workers are anticipated to reflect people from throughout a varied community, a 

heterogeneous GSD (2.3) would be appropriate to protect the most sensitive population. The P10 

39
is 4.4% for this group, which is less than the 5% EPA goal. This suggests that the outdoor soil 

lead concentration of 1000 ppm at this site would be protective under the conditions described. 

Table A-5. ALM Inputs and Results for the Utility Worker Exposure Scenario Using Time-Weighted Average Soil 

Lead Concentration. 

Exposure variable Description of exposure variable Units Inputs 

PbS Soil lead concentration :g/g or ppm 571 571 

Rfetal/maternal Fetal/maternal PbB ratio -- 0.9 0.9 

BKSF Biokinetic slope factor :g/dL per :g/day 0.4 0.4 

GSDi Geometric standard deviation PbB -- 2.1 2.3 

PbB0 Baseline PbB :g/dL 1.5 1.7 

IRS Soil ingestion rate (including soil-derived 

indoor dust) 

g/day 0.1 0.1 

AFS, D Absorption fraction (same for soil and dust) -- 0.12 0.12 

EFS, D Exposure frequency (same for soil and dust) days/year 65 65 

ATS, D Averaging time (same for soil and dust) days/year 91 91 

RESULTS 

PbBadult PbB of adult worker, geometric mean :g/dL 2.5 2.7 

PbBfetal, 0.95 95th percentile PbB among fetuses of adult 

workers 

:g/dL 7.6 9.5 

PbBt Target PbB level of concern (e.g., 10 :g/dL) :g/dL 10 10 

P(PbBfetal > 

PbBt) 

Probability that fetal PbB > PbBt, assuming 

lognormal distribution 

% 2.2% 4.4% 

40
EXAMPLE 5: SEASONAL EXPOSURE: CHILDREN VISITING A SITE 4 MONTHS OF THE YEAR 

One cannot simulate exposures as discrete 4-month exposure events using the IEUBK 

model and ALM. In these models, the exposure must be time-weighted to calculate risk. Table 

A-6 summarizes the predicted mean PbB concentrations across age groups for an example 

scenario in which children experience a single, non-recurring 4-month exposure at a site 

contaminated with a PbS of 2850 ppm. Residential sampling showed 200 ppm for the residential 

PbS, and a PbSW of approximately 1000 ppm is assumed (based upon 70% of soil ingestion 

occurring at the residence [200 ppm] and 30% at the site due to site-specific conditions [2850 

ppm]; this weighted concentration is not averaged over the entire year). Dirt (soil + dust) 

ingestion rates are also kept at model default values. For comparative purposes, the left portion 

of the table indicates P10 values calculated by the model under the more typical constant, or 

cumulative, type of scenario. This was done for PbS concentrations of 200 ppm (residential 

exposure only), 430 ppm (the PbS at which P10=5% when all other model input parameters are at 

default levels), and 1000 ppm (the weighted average). The right portion of the table provides the 

model predictions resulting from the one-time exposures occurring singly in each of the six 

analyzed age ranges (no site exposure was assumed for the 6-11 month group). For each age 

group, the interval associated with the site exposure is underlined. 

41
Table A-6. IEUBK Risk Estimates (P10; Percent of Population Exceeding 10 :g/dL) Corresponding to Varying Soil 

Exposures by Age. All the values have been updated with IEUBKwin (build 253). 

Age 

group 

(months) 

Constant (cumulative) exposure to 

lead in soil 

One year exposure during underlined age range (in months) 

to 1000 ppm site soil lead, otherwise 200 ppm residential 

soil lead was used as the media concentration5 

200 ppm1 430 ppm2 1000 ppm3 

6-114 

12-23 

24-35 

36-47 

48-59 

60-71 

72-84 

2.9 

4.6 

3.4 

2.6 

1.1 

0.5 

0.3 

8.6 

13.1 

10.3 

8.5 

4.0 

1.9 

1.1 

30.0 

40.5 

35.3 

32.0 

19.6 

11.4 

7.4 

2.9 

34.5 

8.0 

2.7 

1.1 

0.5 

0.3 

2.9 

4.6 

26.7 

7.4 

1.2 

0.5 

0.3 

2.9 

4.6 

3.4 

22.1 

4.8 

0.6 

0.3 

2.9 

4.6 

3.4 

2.6 

9.9 

2.3 

0.4 

2.9 

4.6 

3.4 

2.6 

1.1 

5.0 

1.4 

2.9 

4.6 

3.4 

2.6 

1.1 

0.5 

2.9 

12-84 1.6 5.4 23.5 16.9 

1

 200 ppm is the residential PbS based on sampling. 2

 430 ppm in soil is the concentration associated with a 5% risk of elevated PbB for children 12-84 months old, 

when all other IEUBK inputs are at default (dust lead=200 ppm, geometric mean PbB=4.7 :g/dL, GSD=1.6). 

This level of precision is reported only for completeness; in general, back-calculated IEUBK estimates of soil and 

dust lead concentrations should be rounded to the nearest 100 ppm, or 400 ppm in this case. 3

 Weighted average of 70% at 200 ppm and 30% at 2850 ppm; default dirt ingestion rates were assumed. 4

 Age group shown for baseline; no site exposure assumed; PbB concentrations were not included in overall 

means. 

5

 The predictions in italics correspond nominally to the children having no further access to the site. 

The predictions in italics in Table A-6, which correspond nominally to the children 

having no further access to the site, suggest that it takes more than a year for the predicted 

annual average PbB concentrations to return to baseline (200 ppm column). Note: the IEUBK 

model was not validated to estimate elimination kinetics following a sharp change in exposure 

levels. Nevertheless, this example indicates the importance of evaluating the available 

information about exposure patterns at the site to assess how well the assessment assumptions 

are likely to approximate the actual exposure patterns that may be occurring at the site. Where 

there is uncertainty in choosing the most appropriate concentrations for these variables, the TRW 

generally recommends considering several possible alternative scenarios to address a range of 

plausible possibilities. 

42
EXAMPLE 6: LAWN MAINTENANCE NEAR A RIVER 

For a lead-contaminated site (mean soil lead concentration at the site is 2000 ppm) 

located along a river, the most likely future use of the property was lawn mowing and other 

minor groundskeeping activities. This scenario was not envisioned as including soil-intensive 

activities due to the extensive ground cover at the site, so it assumes a central tendency soil 

ingestion of 50 mg/day (U.S. EPA, 1997). For the ALM, the central tendency value would be 

appropriate. The goal is to develop PRG for the site based on the most likely receptor, the lawn 

maintenance worker. The PRG spreadsheet of the ALM model may be used with the following 

changes. 

Based on current activities at this site, it was assumed that the lawn would be mowed for 

three days out of the week for seven months of the year. Because of vagaries in the Gregorian 

calendar and for consistency with lead biokinetic models (as explained in section 3.1 of the text), 

risk can be assessed as a time-weighted average soil concentration based on 3 days of exposure 

out of 7 days. Alternately, the exposure could be expressed as an exposure frequency (EF) of 90 

(3 days/week x 4.3 weeks/month x 7 months) days and an averaging time (AT) of 211 (7 

days/week x 4.3 weeks/month x 7 months) days. In the EF/AT relationship, the factors of 4.3 

weeks/month and 7 months drop out in the calculation, resulting in an EF of 3 and an AT of 7 for 

the spreadsheet. 

The exposure scenario specified at this site, using the ALM, results in 7 months of 

exposure (3 times per week) and 5 months of “washout” when no excess site-related lead 

exposure occurs (see Figure 2 of the text). In determining whether the “washout” period should 

be considered in the risk calculation, a determination must be made whether the duration of site 

exposure could reasonably produce a body burden of lead that results in an adverse health effect. 

In this example, 7 months of exposure would satisfy the minimum exposure duration to achieve 

a quasi-steady state PbB concentration (3 months). Moreover, this exposure duration would also 

likely be sufficient time for a body burden of lead to develop that would be associated with 

adverse health effects. Therefore, a plausible risk calculation for this site would be based on 3 

43
days of exposure out of 7 days as if the exposure occurred for the entire year and ignores the 

effect of the 5 months of the year when site exposure does not occur. This can also be interpreted 

as follows: the increase in blood lead concentration during the exposure season is the basis for 

the risk calculation, and the “washout” period is not considered in the calculation of the PRG. 

To calculate the time-weighted soil concentration to which the lawn worker is exposed, 

the PRG spreadsheet of the ALM is used with the following changes (see Table A-7): 

Averaging time (AT) = 7. 

Exposure frequency (EF) = 3. 

Site-specific soil ingestion rate (IRS) of 50 mg/day for both indoors and outdoors. 

Other parameters set as specified in the ALM Guidance. 

Baseline PbB0 and GSD for the range of inputs were selected from NHANES III 

analysis to span the range from all races/ethnic groups in the U.S. to the Mexican 

American group in the U.S. 

Note that residential exposure to lead is not reflected in this time weighting calculation, 

since the residential contribution is reflected in baseline blood lead. To assess residential lead 

contamination, the IEUBK model should be used. This information can be entered into the 

spreadsheets provided for the calculation of blood lead or preliminary remediation goals (PRGs). 

For a site where it is assumed that the population has a high baseline blood lead concentration 

and a high geometric standard deviation of the blood lead, the PRG values ranged from 1729 

ppm and for U.S. data for all races combined to 1092 ppm for Mexican-American population 

from all regions in the U.S. (see Table A-7). In this case, a decision was made to average 

exposure during the quasi-steady state period (exposure season) and consider this as if it 

occurred throughout the year, ignoring the “washout” period. This is a reasonably conservative 

approach for the site. 

44
Table A-7. ALM Inputs and Results for the Lawn Maintenance Worker Exposure Scenario (#1) Using ALM PRG 

Spreadsheet. 

Exposure variable Description of exposure variable Units Inputs 

PbBfetal, 0.95 95th percentile PbB among fetuses of adult 

workers 

:g/dL 10 10 

Rfetal/maternal Fetal/maternal PbB ratio -- 0.9 0.9 

BKSF Biokinetic slope factor :g/dL per :g/day 0.4 0.4 

GSDi Geometric standard deviation PbB -- 2.1 2.3 

PbB0 Baseline PbB :g/dL 1.5 1.7 

IRS Soil ingestion rate (including soil-derived 

indoor dust) 

g/day 0.05 0.05 

AFS, D Absorption fraction (same for soil and dust) -- 0.12 0.12 

EFS, D Exposure frequency (same for soil and dust) days/year 3 3 

ATS, D Averaging time (same for soil and dust) days/year 7 7 

PRG Preliminary Remediation Goal ppm 1729 1092 

IRS = Intake rate of soil, and outdoor soil derived dust. 

EFS,D = Exposure frequency for contact with assessed soils and/or dust derived in part from these soils. In this 

example, based on 3 days/week x 4.3 weeks/month x 7 months. 

ATS,D = Averaging time; the total period during which soil contact may occur. Based on , based on 7 days/week x 

4.3 weeks/month x 7 months. 

45
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46