Screening for

Thyroid

Disease

MAKING

CHOICES:

A decision aid 

for people

exposed to I-131

from the Nevada

atmospheric

nuclear tests

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

National Institutes of Health

National Cancer Institute
Acknowledgment

This decision aid was developed using the decision support format of

the Ottawa Health Decision Centre, at the University of Ottawa and

Ottawa Health Research Institute, Ontario, Canada, www.ohri.ca.
Table of Contents

This workbook is for you if . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

You will learn about . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

What is exposure to iodine-131? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

What is the thyroid gland? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

What is thyroid disease? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

What is thyroid cancer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

How common is thyroid cancer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

How common are other cancers? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

What was your I-131 dose from the Nevada tests? . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Where did you live? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

How accurate are these doses? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

What is your risk of thyroid cancer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

What is screening for thyroid disease? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

What is involved in thyroid cancer screening? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

What is fine needle aspiration? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

What are the pros of thyroid cancer screening? . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

What are the cons of thyroid cancer screening? . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

How many people have cancer correctly detected

and how many people get false alarms? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

What is thyroid surgery? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

How can you decide whether to be screened

for thyroid cancer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
This workbook is for you if:

• You lived in the United States between 1951 and 1963

• You are concerned that exposure to I-131 from the Nevada

nuclear weapons tests may have affected your thyroid gland

• You want to consider options for thyroid screening

You will learn about:

• I-131 radioactive fallout and the risk of thyroid disease

• The pros and cons of thyroid screening

• How to decide if you should be screened

This workbook focuses on the pros and cons of thyroid cancer

screening. It will help you make an informed decision about

thyroid cancer screening. At the back of the booklet there is a

worksheet to aid your decision-making.

We suggest you complete the worksheet and discuss it with a

health care professional. Then you can make a final decision

about thyroid cancer screening.

1
What is exposure to iodine-131?

Between 1951 and 1963, the United States conducted about one

hundred aboveground nuclear weapons tests at the Nevada Test

Site. These tests released radioactive materials, including iodine-131

(I-131), mainly during 1952, 1953, and 1957. I-131 released from the

tests was carried by the wind and deposited on soil and vegetation throughout the United States. The areas most affected were

downwind of the test site, to the north and east of Nevada. The

areas least affected were on the West Coast of the United States.

Because I-131 breaks down quickly, most exposure occurred

within three months after each test.

The most common way people came in contact with I-131 was

through contaminated milk. This was because the I-131 fell onto

pasture grasses eaten by cows and goats, and was absorbed into

their milk. The I-131 concentrated in the thyroid glands of people

who drank milk. Children usually drink larger amounts of milk, so

young children absorbed more I-131 than adults did. Children’s

thyroid glands are smaller as well, so the larger amount of I-131

was concentrated in less tissue. Children may have received 10

times the I-131 doses that adults did as a result of the Nevada

tests. People, particularly children, who were exposed to I-131

from the tests, probably have an increased risk for thyroid disease.

2
What is the thyroid gland?

The thyroid gland is located in the front of the neck, just above the

top of the breastbone and overlying the windpipe. In most people

it cannot be seen or felt. The gland normally takes up iodine from

the food and the blood, and makes thyroid hormone. The thyroid

controls many body processes, including heart rate, blood

pressure, and body temperature, as well as childhood growth

and development.

What is thyroid disease?

There are two main types of thyroid diseases: noncancerous

thyroid disease and thyroid cancer.

THYROID

DISEASE

Noncancerous

Thyroid Disease Thyroid Cancer

3
Some thyroid diseases are caused by changes in the amount of

thyroid hormones that enter the body from the thyroid gland.

Doctors can screen for these with a simple blood test.

Noncancerous thyroid disease also includes lumps, or nodules,

in the thyroid gland that are benign and not cancerous.

Thyroid cancer occurs when a lump, or nodule, in the thyroid

gland is cancerous.

Check any symptoms of thyroid disease you think you have in the

boxes below.

Too little thyroid hormone

Depression or feeling blue

Trouble concentrating 

Tiredness

Dry skin and hair

Weight gain

Feeling cold all the time

Too much thyroid hormone 

Nervousness 

Anxiety 

Tremor (shaking)

Fast irregular pulse

Symptoms of noncancerous thyroid disease:

4

Symptoms of thyroid cancer:

A lump in the neck, sometimes growing noticeably 

Pain in the neck, sometimes going up to the ears

Persistent hoarseness
These symptoms may not be the result of a thyroid condition.

They are also associated with other medical conditions. If you

checked any symptoms, we suggest seeing a doctor.

What is thyroid cancer?

Thyroid cancer is a slow-growing cancer that is highly treatable and

usually curable. About 95 out of 100 people who are diagnosed with

thyroid cancer survive the disease for at least five years.

How common is thyroid cancer?

Thyroid cancer is not common and accounts for less than 2 percent

of cancers diagnosed in the United States. In the United States,

about 2 in every 1,000 men and about 4 in every 1,000 women

who are currently cancer-free and aged 50 years will eventually

develop thyroid cancer in their remaining lifetime. This is shown in

the boxes below. Each box contains 1,000 circles. Each circle

stands for a person. The blue circles show the number of 50-yearold men and women who will eventually develop thyroid cancer.

The black circles show the number of men and women who will

not develop thyroid cancer.

Men Women 

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How common are other cancers?

Of 1,000 women who are currently cancer-free and aged 50 years,

about 120 will eventually develop breast cancer in their remaining

lifetime. Of 1,000 men who are currently cancer-free and aged 50

years, about 170 will eventually develop prostate cancer in their

remaining lifetime.

About 203,500 women are diagnosed with breast cancer each year

in the United States, while about 15,800 women are diagnosed

with thyroid cancer. About 189,000 men are diagnosed with

prostate cancer each year in the United States, while about 4,900

men are diagnosed with thyroid cancer.

Breast and prostate cancer are both much more common than

thyroid cancer.

What was your I-131 dose from the

Nevada tests?

The dose of I-131 people likely got from the Nevada tests depends on:

• How old they were at the time

• How much milk they drank at the time and whether that milk

was processed

• Where they lived at the time

I-131 doses are measured in radiation absorbed doses (called rad).

The National Cancer Institute estimates that the average dose to

the adult population living in the United States at the time

(between 1951 and 1963) was about 2 rad. Because children likely

absorb more I-131, people younger than 15 at the time of testing

6
may have absorbed higher doses of radiation. Their thyroid glands

were still developing during the testing period. And children were

more likely to have consumed milk contaminated with I-131.

You can roughly estimate your I-131 dose using the following

chart. Find the year in which you were born in the column on the

left. Next, locate the column for the kind and amount of milk you

drank during the nuclear tests (between 1951 and 1963). Then read

your estimated dose in rad.

What is your estimated I-131 dose?

Example: If you were born between 1948 and 1957, and drank 1-3 cups of

milk a day of store-bought milk, your estimated dose of I-131 is about 10 rad.

Example: If you were born between 1958 and 1963, and drank 4 or more

cups of milk a day of store-bought milk, your estimated dose of I-131 is

about 2 rad.

Year of birth

Before 1933

1933-1937

1938-1942

1943-1947

1948-1957

1958-1963

After 1963

< 1

3

5

7

10

1

< 1

< 1

6

10

14

20

2

< 1

Doses in rad by amount and type of milk

7

Processed milk

1-3 4+

cups/day cups/day

No milk

0 

cups/day

2

3

5

7

10

1

Less than 1 

4

6

10

14

20

2

Less than 1 

Doses in rad by amount and type of milk

Farm cow

any 

amount

Farm goat

any 

amount

6

9

15

21

30

3

Less than 1 

30

45

75

105

150

15

Less than 1 

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1 

Less than 1

Less than 1 
Where did you live?

Depending on where you lived, your likely dose could be much

higher or lower than the doses provided on the chart.

High-dose areas

Some counties in these states received higher doses:

Montana, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, South

Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Nevada, and Arkansas.

If you lived in one of these states, your likely dose may be 2 to 3

times greater than the dose shown for you on the chart.

Low-dose areas

Some counties in these states received much lower doses:

Oregon, California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

If you lived in one of these states, you may have received a dose

10 times smaller than that shown on the chart. 

Dose calculator

If you want to calculate your exposure more accurately based on

your county of residence, see the dose calculator on the NCI Web

site (www.cancer.gov, search keyword: I-131).

How accurate are these doses? 

Given the amount of time that has passed since the tests were

conducted, scientists cannot be certain about how much exposure

each person received. Because few data were collected at the time

of the tests, scientists have used available information to make

their best estimates. As a result of this uncertainty, these dose figures are very rough estimates. The uncertainty in the dose estimate may be up to 5 times lower or 5 times higher. For example,

8
if you estimate your dose was 5 rad, your real dose was likely in

the range of 1 to 25 rad.

What is your risk of thyroid cancer?

Now, you can use your dose estimate to roughly work out

whether exposure to I-131 has affected your chance of developing

thyroid cancer. 

The figures that follow are for people who are 50 years old and

cancer-free.

Look to find your dose in rad and read your chance in 1,000 of

eventually developing thyroid cancer in your remaining lifetime.

9

Example: A 50-year-old cancer-free man who was exposed to

about 10 rad has about 3 to 4 chances in 1,000 of eventually

developing thyroid cancer. He has about 996 to 997 chances in

1,000 of not developing thyroid cancer.

Chance of thyroid cancer per 1,000 men

150-200

100-149

75-99

50-74

30-49

20-29

10-19

3-9

1-3

Less than 1 RAD

17-22 in 1,000

12-17 in 1,000

10-12 in 1,000

7-10 in 1,000

5-7 in 1,000

4-5 in 1,000

3-4 in 1,000

2-3 in 1,000

About 2 in 1,000

About 2 in 1,000

0 250 500 750 1,000

Number of men per 1,000

25% 50% 75% 100%
What is screening for thyroid disease?

Screening aims to detect thyroid disease early, before there are

any symptoms. 

• Many people think screening is always a good thing. But there

are good reasons why you might choose not to be screened for

thyroid disease. Screening tests are never 100 percent accurate.

Some people who are screened for thyroid disease will get an

abnormal screening result even though they do not have thyroid

disease. Others may receive a normal screening result even

though they have thyroid disease. These things happen with all

screening tests.

10

Example: A 50-year-old cancer-free woman who was exposed to

about 10 rad has about 6 to 8 chances in 1,000 of eventually developing thyroid cancer. She has about 992 to 994 chances in 1,000 of

not developing thyroid cancer. 

150-200

100-149

75-99

50-74

30-49

20-29

10-19

3-9

1-3

Less than 1 RAD

34-45 in 1,000

24-34 in 1,000

19-24 in 1,000

14-19 in 1,000

10-14 in 1,000

8-10 in 1,000

6-8 in 1,000

4-6 in 1,000

About 4 in 1,000

About 4 in 1,000

Chance of thyroid cancer per 1,000 women

0 250 500 750 1,000

Number of women per 1,000

25% 50% 75% 100%
11

• Whether you think it is worthwhile to get screened is your

decision. There is no right or wrong choice. Some people will

choose to be screened. And others will choose not to be screened.

• The worksheet that follows will focus on the pros and cons of

thyroid cancer screening. Screening for noncancerous thyroid

disease that increases or decreases the amount of thyroid

hormones in the body involves a simple blood test. It is unlikely

to cause you any harm, other than the inconvenience and cost of

the blood test. About 14 in 1,000 women and about 9 in 1,000

men aged 60 years or older probably have undetected thyroid

disease involving abnormal thyroid hormone levels. Through

screening, these people may be identified and treated. Treatment

is likely to be effective for those with clearly abnormal thyroid

hormone levels. There is no good evidence on whether

treatment is helpful in people with only mildly abnormal

thyroid hormone levels.

What is involved in thyroid

cancer screening?

Cancer screening is not just a matter of having a quick test. You

need to consider what might happen after you get your screening

test result.

Options for thyroid cancer screening

Doctors screen for thyroid cancer by feeling the gland, to check

for a lump or nodule. If a doctor feels a nodule, it does not mean

cancer is present. Most thyroid nodules are not cancer.

There are two methods of investigating a thyroid lump or nodule:

1) ultrasound, to locate and describe the lump, and 2) biopsy, to

determine if the lump may be cancerous. Thyroid ultrasound

creates pictures by bouncing sound waves off the gland. This
technique is painless and quick. But it cannot determine whether a

lump is cancerous. The ultrasound device uses sound waves that

people cannot hear. A computer uses the echoes to create a picture

called a sonogram. From the picture, the doctor can see how

many nodules are present, how big they are, and whether they

are solid or filled with fluid. 

If you choose to be screened by ultrasound, your doctor will

arrange for you to have a scan at an x-ray practice or clinic. The

scan is quick and painless. Thyroid nodules may be seen on the

scan. If so, follow-up tests will generally be advised. These may be

a repeat ultrasound scan in the future to see if the nodules have

grown, fine needle aspiration, or surgery.

Confirmation of cancer requires biopsy, usually using a fine needle.

Cells removed from a nodule during biopsy are directly examined

in the laboratory.

What is fine needle aspiration?

A needle is put into the thyroid and cells are taken out. The cells

are examined under a microscope. You may feel minor pain or get

a bruise. A needle aspiration can usually tell whether there is

cancer in the nodule. But in about 20 percent of cases the result is

unhelpful, and people need to have another biopsy or surgery.

What are the pros of thyroid

cancer screening?

#1 Reassurance for people who do NOT have cancer

Most people who are screened do not have cancer. These people

benefit by being reassured that they do not have cancer.

12
13

#2 Early detection for people who DO have cancer

A few people will have cancer. These people will have their cancer

found earlier than they would have otherwise, perhaps while it is

very small. So, they may require less complicated treatment and

have better chances of survival.

What are the cons of thyroid

cancer screening?

#1 False alarms for people who do NOT have cancer

Some people will be falsely alarmed because a nodule is found.

They may need to have repeat scans, fine needle aspiration, or

surgery to see whether they have cancer. Ultimately, these people

learn they do not have cancer. But they will have experienced

stress and anxiety in the process of reaching a diagnosis, as well

as inconvenience and possibly complications of unnecessary surgery.

#2 Uncertainty about the benefit of early treatment

Scientists know that most thyroid cancers can be cured. It is

unclear if finding and treating those cancers early offers an added

benefit. There are no reliable studies about the long-term benefit

of thyroid cancer screening. No one knows for certain if thyroid

cancers found early require less treatment than those found later.

#3 False reassurance for some people who DO have cancer

Screening does not find all the cancers. A few people will be falsely

reassured. They do have cancer but their screening test is normal.

So, they do not benefit from screening.
Screening 1,000 people by neck exam

14

PROS CONS

920-960 people will be

correctly assured they

do not have cancer.

1-3 people will have cancer

found early. They may need

less complex treatment and

may have better chances of cure. 

40-80 people will have false alarms and

will be offered follow-up tests: 

• 40-80 people will be offered 

ultrasound scan

• 20-40 people will be offered fine needle

aspiration as well as ultrasound

• 3-10 people will be offered surgery 

as well as ultrasound and fine 

needle aspiration

The 1-3 people who will have cancer

found early may not have better chances

of cure. They might just know for a

longer time that they have cancer. 

How many people have cancer correctly

detected and how many people get

false alarms?

The numbers of cancers detected and false alarms are different for

screening by neck exam than for screening by ultrasound. 

The charts that follow show the pros and cons of screening by

neck exam and by ultrasound. The numbers on the charts are

based on scientists’ best guesses at how many people are affected.

The exact numbers will vary for different places and people.
What is thyroid surgery?

Thyroid surgery may be needed to detect thyroid cancer that is

not found by fine needle aspiration. Thyroid surgery is generally

very successful. Most of the time only a part of the thyroid gland

is removed. Nevertheless some people have adverse effects,

which can include:

• Damage to the parathyroid gland (next to the thyroid gland).

This causes temporary low blood calcium and muscle cramps in

10 to 15 out of every 1,000 people. A few people (about 7 out of

1,000) will need to take calcium supplements permanently.

• Needing to take thyroid pills. If the entire gland is removed,

thyroid hormone replacement pills must be taken. If part of the

gland is removed, between 1 and 10 people out of every 1,000

will need to take hormone replacement pills.

• Damage to the vocal cords and having a hoarse voice afterwards.

Generally this is temporary, but in about 7 out of 1,000 people,

the hoarseness is permanent.

15

Screening 1,000 people by ultrasound

PROS CONS

800-850 people will be

correctly assured they

do not have cancer.

4-6 people will have cancer

found early. They may need less

complex treatment and may

have better chances of cure. 

150-200 people will have false alarms

and will be offered follow-up tests:

• 70-120 people will be offered

repeat ultrasounds and

70-80 people will be offered fine 

needle aspiration

• 10-15 people will be offered both

surgery and fine needle aspiration

The 4-6 people who will have cancer

found early may not have better chances

of cure. They might just know for a

longer time that they have cancer. 
• Getting an infection in the wound and needing antibiotics

(about 3 out of 1,000 people).

• Bleeding during the operation and needing a blood transfusion

(less than 1 out of 1,000 people).

• Dying from the anesthetic (less than 1 out of 1,000 people).

*These are average rates and will vary with different people, places,

and surgeries.

How can you decide whether to be

screened for thyroid cancer?

Your options are:

1. Continue with your usual health care. If you develop a

symptom (see page 4), see your doctor and have this

symptom checked.

2. Ask your doctor to screen you by neck exam.

3. Ask your doctor to arrange an ultrasound.

Steps in making your decision. See the attached worksheet

to work through these steps in your decision-making: 

Step 1: What is your estimated dose of I-131 from the

Nevada tests?

Step 2: What is your likely risk of developing thyroid cancer?

Step 3: How important is each of the pros and cons of 

thyroid cancer screening to you? 

Step 4: Which of the two methods of screening is best

for you?

Step 5: What questions do you have before deciding?

Step 6: Discuss your decision-making with your doctor.

16
WORKSHEET
To get your estimated dose of I-131 in rad, find the row on

the left that includes your year of birth. Then find the column

that best describes the kind and amount of milk you drank

between 1951 and 1963.

What is your estimated I-131 dose?

Step 1: What is your estimated dose of I-131 from the Nevada tests?

Your estimated dose of I-131 in rad: ________

(For more precise estimates of dose, including effect of 

where you lived, see the individual dose calculator at

www.cancer.gov.)

Year of birth

Before 1933

1933-1937

1938-1942

1943-1947

1948-1957

1958-1963

After 1963

< 1

3

5

7

10

1

< 1

< 1

6

10

14

20

2

< 1

Doses in rad by amount and type of milk

Processed milk

1-3 4+

cups/day cups/day

No milk

0 

cups/day

2

3

5

7

10

1

Less than 1 

4

6

10

14

20

2

Less than 1 

Doses in rad by amount and type of milk

Farm cow

any 

amount

Farm goat

any 

amount

6

9

15

21

30

3

Less than 1 

30

45

75

105

150

15

Less than 1 

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1 

Less than 1

Less than 1 
Step 2: What is your likely risk of thyroid cancer?

Chance of thyroid cancer per 1,000 men

150-200

100-149

75-99

50-74

30-49

20-29

10-19

3-9

1-3

Less than 1 RAD

17-22 in 1,000

12-17 in 1,000

10-12 in 1,000

7-10 in 1,000

5-7 in 1,000

4-5 in 1,000

3-4 in 1,000

2-3 in 1,000

About 2 in 1,000

About 2 in 1,000

0 250 500 750 1,000

Number of men per 1,000

25% 50% 75% 100%

Circle the number that best shows your chance of eventually

developing thyroid cancer. The first graphic is for men. The

second is for women. Statistics are for people who are 50

years old and cancer-free.

150-200

100-149

75-99

50-74

30-49

20-29

10-19

3-9

1-3

Less than 1 RAD

34-45 in 1,000

24-34 in 1,000

19-24 in 1,000

14-19 in 1,000

10-14 in 1,000

8-10 in 1,000

6-8 in 1,000

4-6 in 1,000

About 4 in 1,000

About 4 in 1,000

Chance of thyroid cancer per 1,000 women

0 250 500 750 1,000

Number of women per 1,000

25% 50% 75% 100%
Your Priorities

Looking at the pros and cons given here, shade the diamonds below

to show how important the following are to you (5 diamonds means

very important; 0 diamonds means not important at all):

<> <> <> <> <> Knowing whether or not you have cancer

<> <> <> <> <> Avoiding anxiety caused either by false

alarms or by knowledge that cancer is present;

avoiding unneeded tests that may result from

false alarms

If you shaded more diamonds in the first row, you are leaning

toward being screened (continue to step 4). If you shaded more 

diamonds in the second row, you are leaning toward not being

screened (go to step 5).

Step 3: How important is each of the pros and cons of screening to you?

Pros

• 800 to 960 people out of 1,000 are correctly reassured that they

don’t have cancer

• 1 to 6 people out of 1,000 will have cancers found and 

treated early

Cons

• 40 to 200 people out of 1,000 will have false alarms causing 

anxiety, tests, and surgery when they don’t have cancer

• Early detection may not increase the chance of cure

<> <> <> <> <>
Ultrasound

• More cancers found and treated early (4-6 people out of 1,000)

• More false alarms (150-200 people out of 1,000)

Neck Examination

• Fewer cancers found and treated early (1-3 people out of 1,000)

• Fewer false alarms (40-80 people out of 1,000)

Your Priorities

Looking at the information about ultrasound and neck exam given

here, shade the number of diamonds below to show how important

the following are to you (5 diamonds means very important;

0 diamonds means not important at all):

<> <> <> <> <> Early detection

<> <> <> <> <> Avoiding false alarms

If you shaded more diamonds in the first row, you are leaning

toward ultrasound. If you shaded more diamonds in the second

row, you are leaning toward neck examination.

Step 4: Which of the two screening methods is best for you?
______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

______________________________

Step 5: What questions do you have before deciding?

Step 6: Discuss your decision-making with your doctor.
NIH Publication No. 02-5276

Printed September 2002

P997