Comparison of 

Intent-to-Leave With 

Actual Turnover 

Within the FAA

Carolyn Dollar

Dana Broach

Civil Aerospace Medical Institute

Federal Aviation Administration

Oklahoma City, OK 73125

December 2006

Final Report

DOT/FAA/AM-06/30

Office of Aerospace Medicine

Washington, DC 20591
NOTICE

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of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest 

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assumes no liability for the contents thereof.

___________

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available in full-text from the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute’s publications 

Web site: 

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i

Technical Report Documentation Page 

1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 

DOT/FAA/AM-06/30 

4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date 

Comparison of Intent-to-Leave With Actual Turnover Within the FAA December 2006 

6. Performing Organization Code 

 

7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. 

Dollar CS, Broach D 

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) 

FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute 

P.O. Box 25082 11. Contract or Grant No. 

Oklahoma City, OK 73125 

12. Sponsoring Agency name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 

Office of Aerospace Medicine 

Federal Aviation Administration 

800 Independence Ave., S.W. 

Washington, DC 20591 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 

15. Supplemental Notes 

Work was accomplished under approved task 1206ACO82110.BHRR522.AV9200 

16. Abstract 

INTRODUCTION. Human capital planning in the federal sector relies upon past losses to estimate future 

turnover. Since the historical loss rate is a lagging indicator, an alternative estimate of future turnover might be 

derived from information about employee intent-to-leave. However, results from studies of the relationship 

between intent-to-leave and actual behavior have been mixed. Given the conflicting research findings, we 

investigated the correspondence between intent-to-leave and actual aggregate turnover rates in the Federal 

Aviation Administration (FAA). METHOD. Data describing intent-to-leave in the next 12 months were 

obtained in Employee Attitude Surveys of employees in the last quarters of fiscal years 1997 (N=25,004), 2000 

(N=24,469), and 2003 (N=22,720). Actual turnover rates for the following fiscal years (FY1998, 2001, 2004) 

were calculated from data extracted from the Agency’s official system of personnel records. The proportions of 

employees indicating intent-to-leave on each survey were compared with actual turnover using a Z-test of 

proportions. RESULTS. Intent-to-leave expressed in each survey year significantly overestimated actual turnover 

in the year following the survey (1997 versus 1998, Z = 37.77, p < .001; 2000 versus 2001, Z = 13.74, p < .001; 

and 2003 versus 2004, Z = 3.46, p < .001). When analyzed by gender, intent-to-leave significantly overestimated 

actual turnover for both men and women. Analysis by minority status indicated that intent-to-leave 

overestimated actual turnover for minorities and non-minorities for the 1997/1998 and 2000/2001 but not for 

the 2003/2004 comparisons. DISCUSSION. While overall intent-to-leave expressed in surveys of employees 

does not appear to be of much use in predicting future turnover for the FAA, other variables (i.e., reasons for that 

intent, employee engagement, or organizational commitment) might prove beneficial in the agency’s human 

capital planning. We recommend that future research focus on analyses of those variables. 

 

17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement 

 

 

Human Capital Management, Turnover, Organizational 

Commitment

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1

Comparison of Intent-to-Leave With

Actual Turnover Within the FAA

INTRODUCTION

One component of human resources planning (now, 

called human capital planning) in the federal sector is 

estimation of future losses due to retirement, transfer, involuntary separation, and voluntary resignation. Estimates 

of future losses are generally based on historical losses. 

That is, the turnover rate in past years is used to estimate 

expected losses in future years. However, the employee 

loss rate is, by its nature, retrospective, an indicator of 

what has happened. Within the framework of a balanced 

scorecard (a system that enables organizations to clarify 

their vision and strategy and translate them into action 

developed by Kaplan & Norton, 1996), the historical loss 

rate is a lagging indicator. As an alternative, information 

about employee intent to leave might be used as a leading 

indicator for future turnover in a balanced scorecard. For 

example, a rise in the proportion of employees expressing an intention to leave an agency or major component 

within an agency in one year might presage a rise in actual 

turnover the next year. The utility of intent to leave as a 

leading indicator of future turnover depends on its correlation with actual turnover.

Intent to leave can be very simply defined as a person’s 

stated intention to leave the organization within some 

specific time period. Employee intent to leave has been the 

focus of substantial research in applied psychology, with 

intent conceptualized as a precursor to actual turnover (van 

Breukelen, van der Vlist, & Steensma, 2004). However, 

the results of studies of relationship between intent to 

leave and actual behavior have been mixed. For example, 

Kirschenbaum & Weisberg (1990) found that intent to 

leave was a poor predictor of turnover in a study of 477 

employees. In contrast, Steel and Ovalle (1984) concluded 

that turnover intentions were “superior” to affective variables in the prediction of turnover. Given the conflicting 

research findings, this study was conducted to investigate 

the degree to which intent to leave corresponds to actual 

turnover rates in the Federal Aviation Administration 

(FAA). On one hand, if intent correlates reasonably well 

with actual turnover, then the FAA could use the intent 

data, collected via an employee survey, as a component in 

its human capital planning process. On the other hand, a 

finding that intent does not correspond reasonably well 

with actual turnover would argue against using the intent 

to leave data in the agency human capital planning process 

or in organizational balanced scorecards.

METHOD

Data

Intent to leave. The source for intent to leave data was 

a periodic survey of FAA employees. The FAA conducts 

the Employee Attitude Survey (EAS) every two or three 

years. The EAS is a broad survey of employee perceptions 

of, and attitudes toward, a number of organizational issues, including job satisfaction, supervisory effectiveness, 

and intent to leave (Thompson, Hilton, Twohig, Pagnini, 

Park, King, et al., 2000). Survey data from the years 1997 

(N=25,004), 2000 (N=24,469) and 2003 (N=22,720) 

were used in this analysis. Intent to leave was assessed 

with a single item in each survey. In 1997, the question 

was phrased in terms of the employee’s intent to leave 

the agency within the next 12 months, as shown in Table 

1. In the 2000 and 2003 iterations of the EAS, the item 

was phrased in terms of the likelihood of not leaving the 

agency or leaving in the next year, within two years, and so 

on, as shown in Table 1. However, to compare responses 

across surveys, this analysis focused on the proportion of 

employees expressing an intent to leave within one year 

(12 months) on each EAS.

Turnover. Separation data for fiscal years 1998 through 

2004 were extracted from the FAA Consolidated Personnel 

Management Information System (CPMIS), the official 

system of personnel records for the agency. Turnover was 

calculated as the ratio of persons who left the agency 

for any reason to the total number of persons employed 

by the agency for each fiscal year. For example, 1,705 

persons retired, separated, resigned, or were otherwise 

terminated from the agency in fiscal year (FY) 2000. A 

total of 1,363 persons were hired by the agency in that 

fiscal year. Including those losses and gains, the FAA 

employed 50,663 persons in FY 2000. The turnover rate 

for FY 2000 was 1,705 out of 50,663, or 3.4%.

Analysis procedure

Because the EAS is anonymous, intent to leave responses could not be linked to turnover at the individual 

level of analysis. Therefore, the analysis was conducted at 

the aggregate level for the agency overall. As the intent 

items in the EAS were phrased prospectively, we compared 

the proportion intending to leave in the next year with 

actual turnover in the next year (relative to the survey 

year). For example, the 1997 EAS was conducted in FY 

1997, so we compared the proportion of respondents 
2

intending to leave, based on survey responses, to actual 

turnover in FY 1998. Similarly, the proportion of respondents intending to leave within one year based on EAS 

data from FY 2000 were compared to actual turnover in 

FY 2001, etc. The proportions intending to leave and 

actual turnover in the following FY were compared using 

the standard Z -test of proportions (Kanji, 1999). The 

Z -test macro1 was used to perform the calculations in 

SPSS 12.0.1 (SPSS, 2003).

RESULTS

Intent to leave

As shown in Table 2, 3,082 respondents (out of 24,514, 

or 12.6%) from the 1997 survey indicated that they intended to leave the agency within the next 12 months. 

In 2000, 1,233 respondents (out of 24,469, or 5.0%) 

indicated that they intended to leave the agency within the 

next year (12 months). In the 2003 EAS, 1,057 participants out of 20,493 (5.2%) indicated that they intended 

to leave the agency within the next year. Retirement was 

cited as the most frequent reason for intending to leave 

the agency across the three administrations of the EAS. 

Incentives for early retirement (e.g., “buy-outs”) were 

offered in 1997 throughout the federal government as 

part of the shrinking of the federal workforce under the 

Clinton administration (National Performance Review, 

1993). It is possible that incentives for early retirement 

inflated the expressed intent to leave in the 1997 EAS; 

of the 3,082 participants indicating their intent to leave 

the FAA in the next 12 months, 806 (26.2%) indicated 

“buy-out” as the primary reason. The FAA did not offer 

incentives for early retirement in 2000 through 2004.

Actual turnover

The actual turnover rate, as computed from CPMIS 

data, for the FAA by fiscal year is illustrated in Figure 

1. From FY 1998 through FY 2002, the actual turnover 

rate in the FAA was low, at 4% (of approximately 47,000 

employees) or less. The overall federal government civilian 

employee turnover rate (excluding the U.S. Postal Service 

and uniformed military) in 2000 was about 6% (Friel, 

2003). The FAA turnover rate in FY 2003 increased to 

5.8% (of 52,504 employees). This increase was largely 

Table 1: The Intent-to-Leave Item in FAA Employee Attitude Surveys 

1997 EAS 2000 EAS 2003 EAS 

During the next months, it is mostly 

likely that I will: 

It is likely that I will leave the 

FAA in the next: 

It is likely that I will leave the 

FAA in the next: 

Continue in my current job 

Seek a transfer to another job within my 

facility/organization 

Seek a transfer within the FAA 

Look for a job outside the FAA 

Look for a job outside the government 

Take the next early out offer 

Take the next early retirement buyout 

Take normal retirement 

1 year 

2 years 

3 years 

4 years 

5 years 

Not planning to leave the FAA 

Not planning to leave the FAA 

1 year 

2 years 

3 years 

4 years 

5 years 

Table 2: Statistical Comparison of Intent-to-Leave to Actual Turnover 

Intent-to-Leave Actual Turnover 

Comparison # Intend # EAS % Intend # Actual # Employees % Actual Z-Test

1997 Intent to 1998 Actual 24,514 12.6% 3,082 2,072 52,420 4.0% 37.77 p < .001 

2000 Intent to 2001 Actual 24,469 5.0% 1,233 1,501 52,281 2.9% 13.74 p < .001 

2003 Intent to 2004 Actual 20,493 5.2% 1,057 2,275 50,177 4.5% 3.46 p < .001 
3

due to the transfer of security functions out of FAA with 

the creation of the Office of Homeland Security. The 

turnover rate declined to 4.5% in FY 2004, slightly higher 

than the baseline rate for the period FY 1998 through 

FY 2002. One factor that might explain the increase is 

the aging of the approximately 15,000-person air traffic 

controller workforce (FAA, 2004). Controllers may retire 

when they have accumulated at least 25 years of service as 

a controller without regard to age, when they reach age 

50 with at least 20 years of service as a controller, or upon 

reaching age 56. Retirement eligibility in the controller 

workforce is increasing; thus, retirements from this large 

workforce are also increasing.

Comparison of intent-to-leave with actual turnover.

The proportions of respondents indicating their intent 

to leave within the next 12 months on the 1997, 2000, 

and 2003 employee surveys were compared with the 

proportions of employees actually leaving the agency 

for any reason in FY 1998, FY 2001, and FY2004. The 

results of the comparison are presented in Table 2. The 

proportion of employees indicating their intent to leave 

the agency in the next year on the 1997 EAS (12.6%) 

was significantly greater than the actual turnover rate in 

FY 1998 (4.0%; Z = 37.77, p < .001). Similarly, a significantly higher proportion of employees expressed intent 

to leave in both the 2000 and 2003 EASs as compared 

to those who left the following year (5% versus 2.9%, Z

= 13.74, p < .001 and 5.2% versus 4.5%, Z = 3.46, p < 

.001, respectively).

Results within demographic groups

Intent to leave and actual turnover were also analyzed 

by two demographic groups (gender and ethnicity). The 

purpose of those analyses was to determine if there were 

subgroups for whom intent to leave predicted (or not) 

actual turnover. For example, it might be the case that 

for employees overall, the intent to leave is greater than 

actual turnover, but that for women only, the intent corresponds well to actual turnover. 

By gender. When intent to leave employment by 

gender comparisons were made, females reported less 

intent to leave than males in 1997 and slightly more 

during the following administration of the EAS (see 

Table 3). The differences shown were significantly different in the 1997 (13.1% versus 10.4%, Z = 5.74, p < 

.001) and 2000 (4.8% versus 5.5%, Z = -2.00, p < .05) 

administrations of the EAS. As with the overall sample, 

actual turnover rates for each gender were relatively low, 

ranging from 2.7% of the males in 2001 to 5.0% of the 

females in 2003. Table 3 shows that females had consistently higher rates than males of leaving the agency in 

1998 (4.9% versus 3.7%, Z = -5.16, p < .001) as well 

as in 2001 (3.3% versus 2.7%, Z = -3.65, p < .001) and 

2004 (5.0% versus 4.5%, Z = -2.55, p < .01).

Table 3 further illustrates that when intent to leave by 

gender was contrasted with turnover for the year following each EAS survey, results followed the same pattern as 

that of the overall sample. Once again the actual turnover 

rate was lower than the expressed intent for each previous year, with all Z-tests showing significant differences 

except for the intent of females in 2003 as compared 

with turnover for that gender in 2004 (Z=0.49, NS). 

All other Z values ranged from 3.05 to 34.22 and were 

significant at p < .01.

By minority status. As depicted in Table 4, the percentages of respondents with intent to leave in 2000 and 

2003 by ethnic category were similar, with the percent 

for 1997 likely inflated due to the “buy-out” response 

choice. No significant differences in percentages for intent 

were found between the minorities and non-minority 

employees in any of the EAS survey years. 

As with the overall sample, the rates of employees 

who eventually left the agency in either ethnic grouping 

were low, ranging from 1.9% for minorities in 2001 to 

Figure 1: Percentage of Employees That Left Employment With the 

FAA, by Year.

4 3.8 3.4

2.9

3.8

5.8

4.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 1: Percentage of Employees That Left Employment With the FAA, 

by Year.
4

Table 3: Statistical Comparison of Intent-to-Leave to Actual Turnover, by Gender

Intent-to-Leave Actual Turnover 

Comparison # Intend # EAS % Intend # Actual # Employees % Actual Z-Test

Male 1997 Intent to 1998 

Actual

2285 17,462 13.1 % 1,427 38,144 3.7% 34.22 p < .001 

Female 1997 Intent to 

1998 Actual 

595 5,747 10.4% 595 12,237 4.9% 12.30 p < .001 

Male 2000 Intent to 2001 

Actual

830 17,140 4.8% 1,038 38,854 2.7% 11.85 p < .001 

Female 2000 Intent to 

2001 Actual 

337 6,112 5.5% 425 12,791 3.3% 6.60 p < .001 

Male 2003 Intent to 2004 

Actual

750 14,667 5.1% 1,658 37,116 4.5% 3.06 p < .01 

Female 2003 Intent to 

2004 Actual 

269 5,153 5.2% 618 12,264 5.0% 0.49 N.S. 

Table 4: Statistical Comparison of Intent-to-Leave to Actual Turnover, by Minority 

Intent-to-Leave Actual Turnover 

Comparison # Intend # EAS % Intend # Actual # Employees % Actual Z-Test

Minority 1997 Intent to 

1998 Actual 

410 3410 12.0% 391 9,224 4.2% 13.08 p < .001 

Non-minority 1997 Intent 

to 1998 Actual 

2206 18,264 12.1% 1,616 40,608 4.0% 33.16 p < .001 

Minority 2000 Intent to 

2001 Actual 

199 3,941 5.0% 194 9,975 1.9% 8.27 p < .001 

Non-minority 2000 Intent 

to 2001 Actual 

893 18,090 4.9% 1,154 41,259 2.8% 11.86 p < .001 

Minority 2003 Intent to 

2004 Actual 

196 3,693 5.3% 462 9,912 4.7% 1.52 N.S. 

Non-minority 2003 Intent 

to 2004 Actual 

789 15,524 5.1% 1,808 39,358 4.6% 2.38 N.S. 

Table 4: Statistical Comparison of Intent-to-Leave to Actual Turnover, by Minority
5

4.7% for that same group three years later. The only 

significant difference between the groups occurred in 

2000, with the turnover rate for non-minorities being 

greater (2.8%) than the rate for minorities (1.9%, Z = 

-5.31, p < .001).

Table 4 also reports results of Z tests comparing turnover with intent across survey year separately for each of 

the demographic groups. There was significantly more 

intent in 1997 than turnover in 1998 for each group 

(minorities=4.2% actual turnover versus 12.0% intent, Z

= 13.08, p < .001 and non-minorities=4.0% actual versus 

12.1% intent, Z = 33.16, p < .001). A significantly higher 

percentage of minorities in 2000 expressed their intent to 

leave as compared to 2001 turnover (1.9% actual versus 

5.0% intent, Z = 8.27, p < .001) and non-minorities 

(2.8% versus 4.9%, Z = 11.86, p < .001). However, the 

proportions of minorities and non-minorities expressing 

an intent to leave on the 2003 EAS were comparable 

to actual turnover rates in 2004. Thus, Table 4 shows 

non-significant values for the Z tests performed on those 

comparisons.

DISCUSSION

The purpose of this report was to see if intent to leave 

as reported by survey responses might give FAA management an idea of what to actually expect, so that plans 

could be made to intervene in the loss of employees or 

train new personnel to offset the loss of persons who terminate employment. The findings of the current research 

indicate that employees’ responses to EAS questions about 

intent to leave are not good indicators of actual turnover 

at the aggregate level. This result corresponds to those 

of Kirschenbaum & Weisberg (1990). Moreover, intent 

to leave overestimated actual turnover in 9 of 12 comparisons (by demographic group). This pattern suggests 

that intent is not a good predictor of future turnover for 

demographic subgroups. 

One of the confounding issues in the current analysis 

is that intent to leave in 1997 might have been inflated 

by the “take the next buyout” response choice that was 

unique to that EAS survey only. However, if “take the 

next buyout” responses are excluded, the expressed intent 

to leave on the 1997 EAS still over-predicts (not shown) 

actual turnover in 1998 (8.2% versus 4.0%, Z = 21.97, 

p < .001).

While intent-to-leave may not be an accurate predictor of actual turnover, it still might be an indicator 

of employee disengagement. An intent to voluntarily 

leave might suggest that an individual is withdrawing 

or disengaging psychologically from the organization 

and its work. Identifying organizational factors that 

drive that psychological disengagement (and conversely, 

engagement) can provide a rational basis for developing 

targeted, focused organizational interventions (Corporate Leadership Council, 2004). Moreover, analyses by 

demographic subgroups could aid in the identification 

of both barriers to, and facilitators of, engagement and 

organizational commitment specific to those employee 

sub-populations. Interventions can then be designed at 

the “macro-” and “micro-organizational” levels to address 

the drivers of employee engagement and organizational 

commitment and thereby to contribute to improved 

organizational performance.

REFERENCES

Corporate Leadership Council (2004). Engaging the 

workforce: Focusing on critical leverage points to drive 

employee engagement. Washington, DC: Corporate 

Executive Board.

Federal Aviation Administration (2004). A plan for the 

future: The Federal Aviation Administration’s 10-year 

strategy for the air traffic control workforce. Washington, DC: Author.

Friel, B. (May 2, 2003). Data shows ‘human capital crisis’ 

may be overstated. Retrieved June 22, 2005 from www.

govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=25526.

Harter, J.K., Schmidt, F.L., & Hayes, T.L. (2002). 

Business-unit level relationship between employee 

satisfaction, employee engagement, and business 

outcomes: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87, 268-79.

Kanji, G. (1999). 100 statistical tests. Thousand Oaks, 

CA: Sage.

Kaplan, R.& Norton, D. (1996). The balanced scorecard: 

Translating strategy into action. Cambridge, MA. 

President and fellows of Harvard College.

Kirschenbaum, A. & Weisberg, J. (1990). Predicting 

worker turnover: An assessment of intent on actual 

separations. Human Relations, 43, 829-47.

National Performance Review (1993). From red tape to 

results: Creating a government that works better and 

costs less. Washington, DC: Government Printing 

Office.

SPSS, Inc. (2003). SPSS Release 12.0.1 [Computer program]. Chicago, IL: Author.
6

Steel, R. & Ovalle, N. (1984). A review and meta-analysis 

of research on the relationship between behavioral 

intentions and employee turnover. Journal of Applied 

Psychology, 69, 259-93.

Thompson, R.C., Hilton, T.F., Twohig, P., Pagnini, C., 

Park, H., King, S.J., Malone, M.T., Thompson, 

D., & Thompson, J. (2000). Results of the 1997 

Employee Attitude Survey. (Memorandum Report). 

Oklahoma City, OK: Federal Aviation Administration Civil Aeromedical Institute Human Resources 

Research Division.

van Breukelen, W., van der Vlist, R., & Steensma, H. 

(2004). Voluntary employee turnover: Combining 

variables from the ‘traditional’ turnover literature 

with the theory of planned behavior. Journal of 

Organizational Behavior, 25, 893-914.

End Note

1

The SPSS macro (Z-test.sps) for conducting a Z-test of proportions 

is no longer available directly from SPSS. However, it is available from 

the University of Southern California Information Technology Services 

SPSS web site at www.usc.edu/isd/doc/statistics/spss/macros/