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correlations reflected an inverse relationship.
The correlations for the TATC, ARTCC, and
FSS subjects were —.47, —.45, and —.77, re-
spectively. As mentioned earlier, a correlation
of ~.40 was obtained between the two variables
for the combined subjects of all training options.
Only one coefficient, the —.45 for the 13 sub-
groups of ARTCC subjects, failed to reach sta-
tistical significance at the .05 level. (However,
had the number of subgroups of ARTCC sub-
jects been 15 or more, rather than 13, the co-
efficient of —.45 would also have been signifi-
cant.)

ATTRITION AND RETENTION RATES
OF THE 1968-1970 GROUPS

A. Personnel of the Combined Training Op-
tions. Figure 5 indicates that there were 780
Academy attritions (17.9%) among the 4,367
recruits of 1968-1970. Although not shown in
Figure 5, the Academy elimination rate for the
959 higher-rated trainees (i... above the GS-7
level) was 12.8%; this was a significantly lower
(p<.01) Academy elimination rate than the
19.3% obtained for the remaining 3,408 trainees
of the combined options. Neither the 12.8 nor
the 19.3 differed significantly from the 16.4%
rate established in the 1964 validation study for
the 317 subjects who scored 210 or higher on the
experimentally administered CSC Battery. How-
ever, the Academy elimination rates of both the
38,408 lower-rated trainees (most of whom pre-
sumably met the aptitude screening requirement)
and the 959 who entered under the specialized
experience standard were significantly (p<.01)
below the 26.2% Academy elimination rate
(shown in Figure 1) for the 2,000 pre-1964
trainees. Had the Academy’s training courses
and performance evaluation standards been iden-
tical for the two time periods, these findings
would imply that the selection of ATCS person-
nel had been improved since 1963—either as a
result of (a) revised selection techniques and
qualification standards, and/or (b) changes in
the ratio of the number of applicants to trainee
positions such that recruitment of proportionately
greater numbers of trainees having moderate-to-
high pre-FAA ATC-related experience was pos-
sible.

The 4,367 recruits of the 1968-1970 time period
also had a slightly lower post-Academy attrition
rate than did the 2,000 pre-1964 trainees (com-

12

pare Figures 1 and 5). The difference between
the two rates (17.2 and 19.6%) was small, yet.
statistically significant (py<.05) due to the large
number of cases involved.

Although (a) many of the 4,367 trainees re-
cruited during the more recent time period had
graduated from the Academy only 19 months
prior to the date (1 December 1971) used in
determining their facility attrition-retention
status (none had facility tenures greater than 37
months), and (b) all non-attrited subjects of the
pre-1964 group had FAA careers of no less than
eight years, the 17.2% post-Academy attrition
rate of the 1968-1970 group would not be ex-
pected to increase very much if a future study
covering an eight year follow-up period were
accomplished on this group. Such an expectation
is based upon data supplied by the FAA’s Office
of Manpower.® These data relate to 2,163
“separations” among ATCS hirees of the fiscal
years 1967 through 1971 and indicate that 91.8%
of the 2,163 were attrited within 12 months after
being hired and that an additional 5.7% were
attrited within 13 to 18 months after entry; only
2.5% of the 2,163 attritions had FAA tenures of
19 to 80 months.

The post-Academy attrition rate of the Acad-
emy graduates only (rather than the total trainee
input) was 20.9% for the 1968-1970 group,
whereas the corresponding rate for the recruits
of 1960-1963 was 26.6%; the difference between
the two percentages was statistically significant
at the .01 level.

The 1968-1970 group of 4,367 cases (of the
combined training options) was divided into ten
temporally arranged subgroups in order to de-
termine variances in the attrition and retention
rates. The results are plotted in Figure 5. In
examining these data, it should first be noted
that only 13% of the 151 entrants of October
1968 and less than 1% of the 437 who entered
during November-December 1968 failed to com-
plete Academy training.

However, Academy records indicated that 501
of the 588 trainees noted above took the T-305
Interim Course which, as mentioned, was a short
course in which virtually no screening standards
were employed. Included in the 501 were 56
TATC recruits and eight FSS trainees who ar-
rived at the Academy prior to 20 November 1968,
on which date the specialized T-203 and T-204


Table 3
Facility-training retention rates of Academy Basic-TATC-Training-

Course graduates at Terminal facilities of different levels.

Terminal Facility Number of Basic TATC Facility Training Retentions
and/or Level of Training Course Graduates (still in FAA ATC work
Facility to Which Among Academy Entrants as of December 1971)
Assigned of Jan. 1969 - March 1970 N Per Cent

All Level-IV's

N. Y. Common IFR 12 12
Chicago O'Hare 20 17
Atlanta Mun. 1 1
Los Angeles 9 9
Oakland 13 9
Washington Nat'l 1 1
Miami r 1
Gr. S. W. Int'l

Phoenix 2 1
Boston 4 4
Detroit Wayne 9 9
San Antonio Int'l 2 2

Total for all Iv's: 74 66 89.2

Top Ten Level-III's

J.F. K. 10 9
San Francisco 9 6
Philadelphia 7 7
La Guardia 9 9
Pittsburgh Gr. 4 4
Dallas Love Fld.

Houston Intercont '1 10 10
Denver

St. Louis 8 6
Cleveland Hopkins 5 5

Total for ten III's: 62 56 90.3

Total for all other
Level-III facilities: 154 132 85.7

Total for all Level-ITI
and Level-I facilities: 355 312 87.9

Total for ail TATC facilities: 645 566 87.8

22


of the revised ATC recruiting program and the
need for its rapid implementation created a
number of challenging problems for Academy
training officials. Most importantly, they needed
time (at least several weeks) in which to revise
and update the respective training courses, to
prepare instructional materials, assemble various
types of equipment, and to recruit many addi-
tional instructors.

As a tentative solution, an abbreviated course
of only six weeks duration and covering the gen-
eral aspects of the air traffic management system
was developed and instituted as the “T-305
Interim Course.” All trainees, regardless of the
training option for which recruited, who arrived
at the Academy during the month of October
and the first half of November 1968, took the
T-305 course only.

On 20 November 1968, the T-203 TATC
course, which was of 814 weeks duration, was
implemented for Terminal ATCS trainees and
the T-204 course, which provided 13 weeks of
training for newly recruited FSS personnel, be-
came operational on the same date. En Route
trainees continued to be assigned to the T-305
Interim Course until 8 January 1969, at which
time the 814 week T-202 ARTCC course was
instituted.

A matter bearing upon the results obtained in
this study is that standards for evaluation of
training performance were virtually non-existent
for the T-305 Interim Course. Moreover, Acad-
emy officials informed CAMI researchers that
two to three months were required following
implementation of each specialized training
course before performance evaluation standards
became stabilized and that trainees who entered
after April 1969 were probably evaluated “more
rigidly and in a more consistent manner” than
those who entered during the earlier months.

Some 4,367 of the 6,367 subjects involved in
the present study éntered basic ATCS training
at the Academy during the period 8 October
1968 through 27 March 1970. The groups, by
training option, were:

(1) 935 Terminal trainees. Fifty-five, all of
whom entered the Academy prior to 20 No-
vember 1968, took the T-305 Interim Course;
the remaining 880 were students of the T-203
course.

(2) 8,159 En Route trainees. Only 437, who
arrived at the Academy prior to 8 January
1969, were enrollees of the T-305 Interim
Course. The remaining 2,722 took the T-202
basic training course.

(3) 273 FSS trainees. Nine entered the
T-305 course on or before 5 November 1968
whereas the remaining 264 comprised the
classes for the T-204 course.

C. Considerations in Comparing the 1960-
1963 Groups With Those of 1968-1970. As a
basis for evaluating the comparative analyses to
be presented later, all differences between the
attrition rates of the two major groups and also
between and within the subgroups (ie. En
Routes, Terminals, and FSSs) must be presumed
as being attributable to a variety of changing
circumstances and factors. While we have chosen
to omit discussion of the potential or speculated
influence of most such factors, there are two
which, in our opinion, warrant special elaboration.

First, it is essential to bear in mind that the
post-Academy attrition-retention statuses of all
subjects were determined relative to a specific
date (i.e., 1 December 1971). Differences between
dates of graduation from the Academy therefore
resulted in different lengths of time during
which the subjects were vulnerable to attrition
in the post-Academy phases and/or possibly in
the journeyman positions if recruited prior to
1964. A matter of relatively minor importance
when comparing post-Academy attrition rates,
and which should not be completely disregarded
when considering Academy eliminations, is that
the FSS T-204 course was of 13 weeks duration
in 1968-1970, whereas the FSS T-304 course was
eight weeks in length during 1960-1963, (The
TATC and ARTCC basic training courses of
both the earlier and later time periods were
approximately eight weeks in length.)

The second factor which warrants special con-
sideration concerns differences between the 1960-
1963 and 1968-1970 groups with respect to
cognitive, or intellectual, abilities. The proce-
dures by which the pre-1964 trainees were se-
lected from among ATCS applicants involved
no formal assessment of mental abilities. Upon
arrival at the Academy, however, they partici-
pated in a CAMI research project which included
experimental examination with a wide variety
of aptitude tests. It was subsequently deter-



tery Scores, which the Regions provided for
about half of the 798 Academy entrants of May
through July 1969, revealed no statistically sig-
nificant differences between the group means (the
CSC composite score means were 244.9 for the
FSSs, 242.7 for the TATCs, and 247.7 for the
En Routes).

As may be recalled from Figures 2, 3, and 4,
the Academy attritions among the 1960-1963
group represented 20.9% of the TATC recruits,
32.0% of the ARTCC personnel, and 18.5% of
the FSSs. The Academy elimination rate of
19.3% for the TATC entrants of 1968-1970 (see
Figure 6) was not significantly different from
that estiblished for the TATC trainees of the
earlie time period. In contrast, the difference
between the Academy attrition rate of 17.9% for
the ARTCC trainees of 1968-1970 (shown in
Figure 7) and the corresponding percentage of
32.0 (depicted in Figure 8) for the En Route
entrants of 1960 to 1963 was highly significant
(p<.01). The lower of the two FSS failure
rates (of 12.8% shown in Figure 8 and 18.5%
presented in Figure 4) also pertained to the
entrants of the more recent time period; the
resulting difference was not statistically signifi-
cant (but would have been had 315 or more
cases constituted each group).

The Academy attrition rates of 17.9% for the
ARTCC trainees and 12.8% for the FSSs of the
1968-1970 group are about what we would have
anticipated had the training courses and training
performance evaluation standards, and also all
selection factors other than those involving apti-
tudes, remained essentially the same as in 1960
through 1963, However, it is difficult to explain
why the Academy elimination rate of 19.3% for
the TATC trainees of the more recent time pe-
riod (Figure 6) is almost as great as the 20.990
obtained for the TATC entrants of 1960 through
1963 (Figure 2). The pre-1964 TATC trainees
were not aptitude-screened and previous research**
had shown that they averaged slightly less than
three years each in air traffic control experience
before joining the FAA.

As a group, the 935 TATC subjects of 1968~
1970 possessed more experience and/or higher
aptitudes than the 1960-1963 subjects. About
36% of these (N=836) entered under the spe-
cialized experience standard and the remaining
599 averaged 34.8 months of pre-FAA experi-
ence—about the same as the pre-1964 TATC

19

trainees. The operational CSC Test Scores for-
warded for 352 of the 599 who entered at the
GS-7 level or lower, averaged 242.1, whereas an
unpublished study had shown that the scores of
142 TATC trainees of the earlier time period,
who were administered the CSC Battery on an
experimental basis, averaged 202.1; the mean
difference (according to the Fisher “t” test be-
tween uncorrelated means) was significant at the
.01 level.

The post-Academy attrition rate (shown in
Figure 2) for personnel who entered TATC
training during 1960-1963 was 16.0%. This was
significantly higher than the rate of 10.1%
(presented in Figure 6) for the 935 TATC sub-
jects who began their training after September
1968. Corresponding rates for the entrants into
ARTCC training during the 1960-1963 and
1968-1970 periods were 22.8 and 20.3%, respec-
tively (see Figures 3 and 7). However, the
difference between the latter two was not sta-
tistically significant. In contrast, the difference
between the post-Academy attrition rates of
personnel who entered FSS training during the
widely separated time periods was highly signifi-
cant (p<.01); the two rates were 18.0 (pre-
1964) and 5.9 (1968-1970) per cent (see Figures
4and 8).

The post-Academy retention rates of the pre-
1964 personnel for the TATC, ARTCC, and FSS
options were 63.1, 45.2, and 63.3%, respectively ;
the ARTCC rate was significantly below those
of the TATC and FSS subjects (p<.01). The
retentions among the 1968-1970 group represented
70.7% of the TATC input, 61.9% of the En
Route entrants, and 81.3% of those who chose
the FSS option; all differences between the latter
three were statistically significant at the .01 level.
It is of more than incidental interest to note that
the ARTCC personnel had a significantly lower
retention rate (p<.01) than did the Terminals
or FSSs of each entry period. Also, for each of
the training options, the retention rate of the
pre-1964 personnel proved to be significantly
lower (p<.01) than the rate of those who entered
during 1968-1970.

Procedures corresponding to those employed
with the 1960-1963 groups were used to subdivide
the TATO, ARTCC, and FSS subjects of 1968~
1970 into subgroups, with each subgroup (except
the first and last) representing the input of a
specific two-month period. The attrition. and



The average retention rate for the subjects
assigned to the 12 Level-IV TATC installations
was 89.2%, whereas a 90.3% rate was obtained
for those at the 10 highest-ranked of the Level-
II facilities. The mean retention rate for per-
sonnel assigned to the remaining Level-III
facilities was 87.5%, while the corresponding
rate for the combined groups of the Level-II and
Level-I TATC installations was 87.9%. No
differences between any of the four percentages
nor between any of the latter and the overall
TATC retention rate of 87.8% were statistically
significant.

B. Retention Rates of Trainees at Level-IT
and Level-I ARTCC Facilities. Results of an
analysis similar to that accomplished on the
TATC subjects are shown in Tables 4 and 5 for
trainees of the Level-II and Level-I ARTCCs,
respectively, As may be noted, 1,584 of these
ARTCC graduates were assigned to Level-II
Centers and had a mean retention rate of 75.8%.
The trainees assigned to Level-I ARTCC facili-
ties numbered only 578; their overall retention
rate was 75.4%. These highly comparable rates
differed significantly (p<.01) from the retention
rates of the trainees at TATC facilities of four
different levels and each was also significantly
lower (p<.01) than the overall TATC retention
rate of 87.8% (see Table 1). Although the dif-
ference between the previously established mean
Academy elimination rates (of 19.3% and 17.9%,
respectively) for the Terminal and En Route
personnel was not statistically significant, the
results pertaining to post-Academy training
clearly demonstrate that the probability of pro-
gressing toward full journeyman status was
somewhat greater in TATC training than in
ARTCC training—regardless of the level of the
facility for which recruited.

The retention rates (shown in Table 4) for the
Academy ATCS graduates at the Level-IT
ARTCC facilities ranged from 54.9% for the
Center at Aurora, Illinois, which ranked first in
terms of total operations, to 98.8% for the fourth-
ranked facility at Leesburg, Virginia. However,
the Kansas City Center, which ranked tenth op-
erationally, had a retention rate of 56.7%, only
slightly higher than that at the Aurora Center.
Further examination of the data presented in
Table 4 indicated that the rates tended to vary
independently of the operations rankings. This
was also true with regard to the rates at the

25

various Level-I ARTCCs. As may be noted in
Table 5, the latter ranged from 52.7% at the
fourth-ranked Seattle Center to 100% for the
Great Falls, Montana Center, which recruited
only two trainees. Also, over 85% of the 46
trainees at Salt Lake City, which ranked seventh,
were “retentions.”

In all but a few instances, the total number of
trainees at each En Route facility was rather
substantial, thus permitting a reliable assessment
and comparison of retention rates within and
between the facilities for trainees recruited dur-
ing each of two 6-month intervals of 1969 and
the first quarter of 1970. The FAA’s need for
ATCS trainees was presumably at its peak at the
beginning of 1969 and we therefore postulated
that the retention rates at most facilities would
probably be highest for the recruits of the first
six months and progressively lower for the en-
trants of subsequent time intervals. A cursory
review of the results shown in Tables 4 and 5
revealed no consistent upward or downward
trend in the rates at the various facilities with
respect to the time factor. However, arithmetical
averages (which are not shown) were computed
for the trainees of the combined Centers of each
level and the results contradicted our hypothesis.
The mean rates for the Level-II facility trainees,
proceeding from the earliest to the last of the
subgroups recruited, were 72.8, 75.3, and 79.7.
Differences between the retention rates of trainees
recruited during the adjacent time intervals were
not statistically significant, whereas the remain-
ing difference (between the percentages of 72.8
and 79.7) was significant at the .01 level. The
mean rates for trainees of the Level-I ARTCCs
followed a different pattern. Again, however,
the lowest of the three rates, rather than the
highest, pertained to the subgroup which entered
the Academy during the first half of 1969. The
“retentions” represented 71.7% of the first sub-
group, 79.1% of the next, and 77.4% of those
Academy graduates who had begun their Acad-
emy training during the first three months of
1970. (None of the differences between the latter
percentages was statistically significant.)

C. Comparison of Retention Rates of Trainees
of GS-9 and GS-7 Levels. As pointed out
earlier, the selection standards which became op-
erational in October 1968 permitted applicants
having exceptional amounts and/or types of ex-
perience to be appointed to training at the GS-8



Academy failure rates. The resulting rho co-
efficient was —.31; though sizable, it was not
statistically significant.

As mentioned earlier, a total of only 273 FSSs
entered the Academy during October 1968
through March 1970. Some 12.8% failed the
T-204 course and only 6.7% of the 238 who
passed were’ subsequently attrited at their facili-
ties. None of the Academy graduates in six of
the 15 FSS classes were facility attritions and
the overall Academy elimination rate for the
combined classes of which these graduates had
been members was 20.0%. The two subgroups
of graduates having the highest post-Academy
attrition rates (of 21.7 and 12.5%) constituted
former classes in which none of the entrants
were eliminated. The rank correlation between
the Academy elimination rates of the FSS en-
trants and the post-Academy attrition rates of
the FSS graduates was —.44, a coefficient of
moderate size which was statistically significant
at the .05 level.

The inverse relationships, most of which were
statistically significant, between the Academy
elimination rates of entrants into training and
the post-Academy attrition rates of Academy
graduates of the three training options are im-
portant in two respects. First, they attest to the
potential with which the Academy training
courses might be used to further screen, as well
as provide initial training for, newly hired
ATCS personnel. However, logic would indicate
that the correlations obtained in this study would
likely have been much smaller had substantially
less variability occurred in the two attrition rates
throughout each of the time periods. Thus, the
findings imply that the training courses could
probably have been used with even greater effec-
tiveness (ie., with more consistency than that
which actually prevailed) in precluding the ad-
vancement of many other ATCS trainees to sub-
sequent training phases in which they were
eventually eliminated.

RETENTION RATES OF ACADEMY
ATCS GRADUATES AT FACILITIES
OF DIFFERENT TYPES AND LEVELS

As may be recalled, the “retention rates” dis-
cussed in the preceding sections of this report
usually referred to the proportions of entrants
into Academy training who were still in FAA

21

ATC work on 1 December 1971. However, per-
centages reflecting the retention rates of Academy
ATCS graduates only were deemed more appro-
priate data than the former for analyses involv-
ing comparisons of retention rates for personnel
assigned to control facilities of different types
and levels. Analyses in this regard were accom-
plished for those subjects who entered the Acad-
emy during January 1969 through March 1970.
Such analyses were facilitated by the availability
of information set forth in the magnetic-tape
records provided by FAA Headquarters for all
ATCS personnel. Aside from other information,
each subject’s record also included coded data
designating the type of facility (ie, TATC,
ARTCC, or FSS) and the level (or relative
traffic-density rating) of the facility in which
the ATCS was working.

In the FAA’s facility-level classification sys-
tems, there are four different levels of TATC
facilities, two levels of Centers (or ARTCCs),
and three categories of Flight Service Stations.
Only those TATC facilities having 300,000 or
more instrument operations per year warrant a
Level-IV designation, whereas other Terminal
facilities are of Level III, II, or I, depending
upon the amounts and/or types of air traffic
dealt with annually. Each Center is either a
Level-II or Level-I facility, with one million
operations per year constituting the criterion for
designation as Level-II. However, there is no
direct comparability between the corresponding
levels of ARTCC and TATC facilities. Inas-
much as the FSS subjects in the present study
were so few in number, no distinction was made
with respect to their facility levels in any of the
analyses and thus, no description of the levels
will be presented.

A. Retention Rates at TATC Favilities of Dif-
ferent Levels. Table 8 presents the retention
rates of Academy ATCS graduates at Terminal
facilities of different levels. (The levels shown
are based on FAA records dated 1 December
1971.)

The largest number of cases for any of the
individual TATC facilities was 20 (for O’Hare
International) ; the Ns for the other facilities
ranged from one to 12, Consequently, plans to
compute and compare the retention rates of per-
sonnel at several selected high-traffic-density
airports were abandoned.



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age or older. In contrast, a mean age of 28.4
years was established in another study® with 798
GS-7’s of whom less than 14% were over 34 years
old. Unpublished research pertaining to 301 of
the 710 higher-rated subjects of the study men-
tioned above revealed that 273 of the 301 suc-
cessfully completed Academy training, and that
the subsequent attrition rate was 42% for the 45
Academy graduates of age 35 and older and only
17.5% for the 228 younger trainees. A similar
analysis relating to 613 Academy graduates of
the GS-7 level and lower indicated that 25% of
those over 34 years old were subsequently at-
trited, compared to 18% of the younger trainees.
Extension of the analyses to include considera-
tion of operational and/or experimentally de-
rived CSC ATC Aptitude Test Scores yielded
results indicating that trainees recruited under
the specialized experience standard were gener-
ally not of the exceptional mental calibre which
characterized most of the GS-7’s, GS-6’s, and
GS-5’s. For example, the previously discussed
study of 301 trainees who were recruited at the
GS-9 level and higher showed that 135 of them
(about 45%) scored so low on the operationally
administered test battery that they would have
been declared ineligible for appointment to
training had their experience not warranted
exemption of the aptitude screening hurdle.
(Thirty-two per cent of the 135 were attrited,
either in Academy training or subsequent to it.)

Such studies have conclusively illustrated that
the major factors bearing upon success or failure
of personnel in ATCS training programs of the
past were chronological age, types and/or
amounts of prior ATC experience, and mental
aptitudes. They have also demonstrated that
measures pertaining to the three areas are inter-
related. Unfortunately, a valid assessment of
the interaction effects of the three variables upon
post-Academy training performance has been
virtually impossible because: (1) the entrants
into Academy ATCS training qualified for ap-
pointment under different sets of standards,
(2) they generally represented highly selected
groups in terms of measures reflecting ATC ex-
perience and/or aptitudes, and (3) the “restric-
tion-of-range effects” became even more pro-
nounced because many of the trainees in the
upper age categories or in the lower experience
and aptitude categories were eliminated while at
the Academy.

28

On the basis of research findings obtained to
date, however, we are inclined to believe that the
age factor is far more important than experience
as a determinant of post-Academy training per-
formance and, if no selectees were older than 35,
that the positive influence of pre-FAA ATC ex-
perience would be greater than that of aptitudes
upon performance in both the Academy and post-
Academy training stages. Aptitude test meas-
ures are primarily useful for screening purposes,
to preclude the selection of personnel who are not
apt to succeed in FAA ATC work solely because
they fail to possess sufficient mental abilities.
Should the composite-aptitude score level chosen
for screening purposes not be unrealistically
high, scores exceeding the prescribed minimum
may correlate substantially with indices of per-
formance in the early stages of training (and
particularly with groups possessing little or no
prior ATC experience) but they should not be
expected to have great potential for forecasting
subsequent success or failure in the profession.

OCCUPATIONAL PERSPECTIVES FOR
EVALUATING ATCS ATTRITIONS

To complete a discussion of the attrition rates
of ATC trainees and of ATC personnel in gen-
eral, some frames of reference are worth consid-
ering. Although other types of occupations
which make use of one or more sets of initial
screening tests as well as formal centralized
training are not directly comparable to air traffic
control work (nor to each other), their attrition
rates provide at least some perspective from
which ATC Academy attritions may be viewed.
For example, published reports of several occu-
pational groups which are carefully pre-screened
prior to entry-into-training revealed training-
attrition rates ranging from 22-43%. Included
among these were attrition rates of 35.6% during
US. training of Peace Corps volunteers; 22%
of nursing students in their first year of training’?
(a different study** of nursing turnover in a
teaching hospital showed that 38% of the nurses
stayed on the job less than one year); 43% of
Army Officer Candidates during 23 weeks of
training"; and 35% (excluding those who failed
to complete training due to medical or discipli-
nary problems) for a sample of naval aviation
students who, in addition to pre-screening, were
typically recent college graduates.’


only 16.4% of the 317 with CSC scores of 210 and
higher were subsequently attrited from Academy
basic training. Therefore, a somewhat similar
Academy elimination rate would be expected for
the aptitude-screened trainees of the 1968-1970
groups éf all other selection standards (i.e., ex-
clusive of aptitude standards) and the Academy
training courses and training-performance eval-
uation standards had remained unchanged across
the contrasting time periods.

D. Criterion Variables. Academy training of-
ficials provided CAMI with an “Evaluation of
Performance Record” for each trainee shortly
after the graduation date of each class. For
purposes of this study, each subject who failed
to successfully complete his respective training
course, regardless of reason, was designated as
an “Academy attrition.” (A previous study?
had shown that over 82% of the Academy non-
graduates possessed failing grades at the time
they were attrited.)

“Post-Academy retention-attrition status” re-
flected whether the subject was or was not with
the FAA in ATCS work as of 1 December 1971.
This was determined by collating the names and
social security numbers of all subjects with those
set forth in FAA magnetic tape records for all
personnel who, on 1 December 1971, possessed an
occupational code of 2152 (denoting the ATCS
specialty). Those subjects who were still within
the air traffic management system on that date
were categorized as “post-Academy retentions.”
The listing of all remaining and attrited cases
of the CAMI samples was then compared against
the listing of Academy eliminees and each sub-
ject who was attrited subsequent to Academy
graduation was designated as a “post-Academy
attrition.”

III. Results and Discussion,

ATTRITION AND RETENTION RATES
OF THE 1960-1963 GROUPS

A. Personnel of the Combined Training Op-
tions. Figure 1 shows the numbers and propor-
tions of the 2,000 entrants into the Academy's
ARTCC, TATC, and FSS training courses dur-
ing September 1960 through August 1963 who
were: (a) Academy attritions, (b) post-Academy
attritions, or (c) post-Academy retentions (as
of 1 December 1971). Of the 2,000 students in
the combined training options, 524, or 26.2%,

were attrited while at the Academy, and 393, or
19.6%, were attrited subsequent to Academy
graduation. The remaining 1,083, representing
54.2% of the total group, were still with the
FAA in ATC work on 1 December 1971, which
was at least eight years and one month subse-
quent to the graduation date of the last class of
which any of the group had been members. A.
point of probable interest, but not presented in
Figure 1, is that the 1,083 retentions represented
73.4% of the 1,476 who successfully completed
their respective training courses at the Academy.

The attrition and retention rates were also
computed for subgroups, each of which repre-
sented the combined inputs for the Academy’s
TATO, ARTCC, and FSS training programs
during one of nine 4-month intervals. The re-
sults are plotted in Figure 1.

An examination of Figure 1 will reveal that
both types of attrition rates and the percentages
reflecting the “retentions” were highly variable
across the nine temporally-ordered subgroups.
For example, the post-Academy retentions repre-
sented 58.7% of the personnel who entered Acad-
emy ATCS training during September-December
1960, 53.5% of those who entered during the first.
four months of 1961, and only 47% of the “May-
August 1961” input. The retention rates of
groups entering training thereafter were highly
variable, ranging from 42.5% to 63.8%—for the
inputs of May-August 1962 and May-August
1963, respectively.

Inasmuch as the post-Academy retention rate
of each subgroup was dependent upon both the
‘Academy-elimination and post-Academy-attrition
rates, the fluctuations in the latter two are of
particular interest. As may be noted, the Acad-
emy eliminees represented only slightly more
than 17% of the recruits of “September-December
1960” and “January-April 1961,” whereas the
post-Academy attritions accounted for 23.9%
and 29.3% of the respective inputs. During the
ensuing 15 months, there was a general upward
trend in the Academy elimination rate, to 42.8%
for the entrants of May-August 1962, while the
post-Academy attrition rate progressively de-
clined from 26.9 to 14.7%. Thereafter, the trend
in the Academy elimination rate was downward,
to 20.1% for the May-August 1963 subgroup,
whereas the post-Academy attrition rate pro-
gressed from a low of 10.38% for entrants of



mined, through analysis of the intercorrelations
of 27 different tests and their validities for pre-
diction of training performance, that a composite
score based on only six of the instruments could
be used to improve appreciably the ATCS selec-
tion process.

Beginning in January 1964 and continuing
through September 1968, a qualifying aptitude
index, based on the six tests recommended by
CAMI, constituted a major eligibility require-
ment of every applicant, irrespective of his pre-
FAA experience and other qualifications. The
group of tests is generally referred to as the CSC
(Civil Service Commission) ATC-Aptitude Test
Battery.

However, when the FAA’s program for rapid
expansion of the ATC system was implemented
in 1968, the selection standards were further
modified. The change having a potential bearing
upon the results obtained in this study pertained
to those applicants having exceptional amounts
or types of pre-FAA experience (and particularly
radar control experience such as attained by
many military controllers). Under the revised
procedures, the latter could be granted exemp-
tions of the aptitude qualification requirement
and also be hired at pay grades, or General
Service levels, of GS-8 and above, whereas the
vast majority of trainees selected from among
the less experienced applicants continued to be
hired at the normal-entry pay grade of GS-7.
The change was predicated on the assumption
that most individuals having highly specialized
experience would probably have little difficulty
in successfully completing a basic training course
in FAA TATC or ARTCC procedures and regu-
lations and that they would master subsequent
phases of training and advance to journeyman
ATCS status more quickly than the less experi-
enced personnel.

It was determined that 959 (or 22%) of the
4,367 entrants into Academy basic training dur-
ing October 1968 through March 1970 possessed
ratings above the GS-7 level. The 959 included
two GS-12’s, 20 GS-11’s, 31 GS-10’s, 745 GS-9’s,
and 161 GS-8’s. All 161 GS-8’s arrived at the
Academy within three months after the new re-
cruiting standards were implemented and most
of them were shortly thereafter redesignated as
GS-9’s on the basis of re-evaluations of prior
experience. Some 3,408 of the total group of
4,367 possessed ratings lower than GS-8; 2,955

were GS~7’s, 404 were GS-6’s, and 49 entered as
GS-5’s. All but 23 of the 404 GS-6’s entered the
Academy within the first 12 weeks following the
new recruiting program’s implementation. Over
95% of the 3,408 lower-rated and moderate-to-
low experienced trainees indicated, on a CAMI-
administered questionnaire, that they were
required to qualify (with scores of 210 or higher)
on the CSC ATC-Aptitude Test Battery before
being appointed to ATCS training. In no
analysis of the present study was a distinction
made with respect to the trainees’ specific GS
levels, In the latter phases of the investigation,
however, several analyses were accomplished in
which, after deletion of the subjects who entered
the Academy prior to 1 January 1969, the attri-
tion and retention rates of the combined sub-
groups of GS-7’s, GS-6’s, and GS-5’s were
compared with those of all trainees who qualified
for appointment to ATCS training (at the GS-9
level and higher) on the basis of specialized
experience.

Numerous CAMI studies, *°* have consist-
ently shown that the Academy trainees of October
1968 through March 1970 were generally very
superior to the pre-1964 recruits in terms of per-
formance scores on a wide variety of aptitude
tests. For example, studies*** in which the CSC
Test Battery was validated on 893 Academy
trainees of 1962 and 1963 revealed that their
mean raw score was 191 and that scores of 210
and above were attained by: less than 36%
(N=317) of the experimentally examined group.
It was further determined that 271, or 30.3%,
of the 898 failed to successfully complete Acad-
emy basic training and that over 80% (N=219)
of the 271 eliminees were among the 576 who
scored less than 210. In contrast, studies’ *®
dealing with samples of aptitude-screened train-
ees who entered the Academy after September
1968 have shown that they generally averaged
about 245 on the CSC Battery. Scores of 245 or
better were attained by only 3.2% of the 893
pre-1964 trainees who were experimentally as-
sessed with the battery. Moreover, we estimate
(through interpolative procedures developed dur-
ing research with the California Test of Mental
Maturity”? and the CSC Battery) that a CSC
score of 245 is roughly equivalent to a so-called
“T.Q.” of 130 to 135.

The study in which the CSC Battery was vali-
dated with 893 pre-1964 recruits revealed that


earliest recruited subgroups ranged from 0.4%
to 4.7%, whereas the post-Academy attrition
rates of the graduates within those subgroups
ranged from 19.5 to 27.7%. Only 14% of the
entrants of February 1969 failed Academy train-
ing but 32.6% who successfully completed basic
training were subsequently attrited. Data for a
number of other subgroups also indicated that
the two variables were inversely related. An
assessment of the relationship by the Spearman
rank-order correlation technique produced a rho
coefficient of —.51, which was statistically sig-
nificant at the .05 level of probability. As may
be recalled, the corresponding correlation for the
pre-1964 subgroups of the combined options was
— 40,

Such findings illustrate the potential with
which standardized training courses, conducted
on a centralized basis, can be used for secondary
screening purposes. While it is theoretically
possible to accomplish all necessary screening at
the field-facility level, it would likely be much
less economical than the former. In other words,
since the average training cost per individual is
contingent (at least in part) upon the average
length of time after entry into the FAA, men not
having potential to advance to journeyman status
can be identified early; elimination at the train-
ing-program level generally represents cost
savings.

B. Comparison of Terminal, En Route, and
FSS Trainees of 1968-1970. Attrition and re-
tention rates for the 935 Terminal, 3,159 En
Route, and 273 FSS trainees of 1968-1970 are
presented in Figures 6, 7, and 8, respectively.
Beginning with a comparison of the summary
data for the total number of subjects in each
training option, it was determined that the
Academy attrition rate of 19.3 for the TATC
trainees was not significantly different from the
17.9% obtained for the En Route personnel,
whereas each of the latter percentages was sig-
nificantly higher than the FSS failure rate of
12.8%.

The post-Academy attrition rates, based on the
number of entrants into training, were 10.1% for
the Terminal trainees, 20.3 for the En Routes,
and only 5.9% for the FSS personnel. All dif-
ferences between the three percentages were sta-
tistically significant (.05-.01 levels), with two of
the three, both of which involved the En Routes,
being significant at the .01 level. The post-

17

Academy retention rate of 70.7% for the TATC
subjects was significantly higher (p<.01) than
the ARTCC retention rate of 61.9 but both per-
centages proved to be significantly ower (p<.01)
than the 81.3% established for the FSS trainees.
These and other related findings of the study
were discussed with five Academy instructors on
an individual basis. Some of them opined that
the pace of training in the 13-week FSS T-204
course was somewhat more moderate than in the
Terminal or En Route courses (of eight weeks
duration each). Two instructors contended that
the training provided in the T-204 course was
sufficient to enable most FSS personnel to readily
adapt, and assume a role, as a working team
member soon after return to their facility of
assignment, whereas “graduates of the more dif-
ficult. T-202 and T-203 courses were considered
as having completed only the first of many com-
plex training phases.” However, there was prac-
tically no agreement among the consultants as to
why the TATC and En Route personnel, after
having highly similar Academy elimination rates,
differed so much with respect to post-Academy
attrition rates (i.e, 10.1% for the TATC trainees
versus 20.3% for the En Routes). Some of the
instructors also stated that a large proportion of
the entrants into FSS training possessed pre-
FAA experience comparable to many of the
TATC and ARTCC recruits and claimed that
such individuals, if also of comparable mental
calibre, should have been expected to experience
less difficulty in training for FSS work than if
selected for Terminal or En Route training.
Since most of the instructors contacted either
stated or implied that FSS training was not as
difficult as TATC or ARTCC training, some
analyses relevant to the assumptions regarding
comparability of experience backgrounds and
mental calibre of the trainees were undertaken.
This was done by analyzing the records of 798
ATCS trainees who entered the Academy at the
GS-7 level or lower during 1 May through 30
July 1969—a period roughly midway between
8 October 1968 and 27 March 1969. It was as-
certained that prior ATC experience was pos-
sessed by: (a) slightly over 16% of the 80
trainees who comprised the FSS classes of the
selected period, (b) about 45% of the 119 TATC
students, and (c) slightly less than 20% of the
remaining 599 ARTCC enrollees. An analysis
of the CSC ATC-Aptitude Test Screening Bat-



September-December 1962 to 16.1% for personnel
recruited during the last four months of the
time period.

A most obvious finding is that the post-
Academy attrition rates, such as those depicted
in Figure 1, tended to vary inversely with the
Academy elimination rates. This finding was
not particularly surprising, however, because
both rates for each of the subgroups represented
percentages based on the total number of entrants
into training. In other words, the post-Academy
attrition rate depended to some extent upon the
Academy elimination rate. For example, had
80% of the trainees entering during one of the
four-month intervals been eliminated during
Academy training, the post-Academy attrition
rate( as based on the number of entrants) would
have been necessarily low and could not have
exceeded 20%.

Consequently, an analysis was undertaken
wherein the post-Academy attrition rates were
determined for the Academy graduates only and
techniques were then employed to assess the re-
lationship between the latter and the Academy
elimination rates. The two arrays of percentages
are presented in Table 1. (In order to assess
more reliably the relationship between the two
rates, the group of 2,000 pre-1964.trainees was
divided into 18 subgroups, rather than the nine
for which data were depicted in Figure 1.)

The lowest of the Academy elimination rates
pertained to those ATCS personnel who entered
training during January-February 1961; only
13.4% of them were eliminated at the Academy
but 33.6% of those who graduated were even-
tually attrited at their facilities of assignment.
Similarly, only 16.4% of the entrants of Septem-
ber-October 1960 failed to complete Academy

Table 1

Rates of elimination from Academy training for 1960-1963 ATCS personnel of all options and attrition

rates for GRADUATES of Academy training after returning to field facilities.

Entrants Into

Per Cent of ENTRANTS

Per Cent of GRADUATES

Academy Training Academy Training Eliminated During of Academy Training
Entry Periods N Academy Training Attrited at Facilities
1960
September-October 116 16.4 34.0
November -December 85 18.8 21.7
1961
January-February 127 13.4 33.6
March-April 146 20.6 37.1
May-June 205 29.8 38.2
July-August 129 20.2 34.0
September -Oct ober n3 23.9 264
November -December 59 23.7 20.0
1962
January-February 86 27.9 30.6
March-April 129 34.9 19.1
May-June 178 40.4 28.3
July-August m4 48.2 18.4
September -October 85 28.2 19.7
November -December 80 25.0 8.3
1963
January-February 89 20.2 25.4
March-April 100 35.0 9.2
May-June UL 18.9 22.2
July-August 88 21.6 14
Total 2000 26.2 26.6

Correlation between Academy elimination rates and post-Academy attrition rates (rho coefficient):

- 40%

* Statistically significant at the .05 level.



Table 4
Facility-training retention rates of Academy Basic-ARTCC-Training-

Course graduates at thirteen Level-II Centers.

Facility Training Retentions
(still in FAA ATC work

Air Route Academy as_of December 1971)
Traffic Control Training Academy N Per Cent of
Center to Which Entry Graduates Per Academy Graduates

Assigned Periods N Group Group All Groups
Chicago Jan-June '69 81 42 51.9

(Aurora) July-Dec '69 70 28 40.0
~ Llineis______-= Jan-Mar_ 170 __ _ _82___ __ ~ 38 _ _ 10.7 2 Le
Cleveland Jan-June

(Oberlin) July-Dec

Jan-June
July-Dec

New York
(Islip)
— New York_ _ _

Washington
(Leesburg, Va.)

Atlanta
(Hampton)

— Georgia _ __ ___ Jan-Mar _'70.___ 26._____ #9 __ 78.2 __- Ds/_

Fort Worth Jan-June
(Euless) July-Dec

Indianapolis Jan-June
Indiana July-Dec

Los Angeles

(Palmdale)

_ California _ _

Kansas City Jan-June
(Olathe) July-Dec

— Kamsas_______ Jan-Mar_ 170 __ _ 99 ~~ - - - 2 Pe

Oakland Jan-June
(Fremont) July-Dec

~ Galifornia,____— Jan-Mar_ 170

Boston Jan-June
(Nashua, N. H.) July-Dec

— Massachusetts _ _ _ _Jan-Mar_

Jacksonville Jan-June
(Hilliard) July-Dec
Florida Jan-Mar

Total of Top
13 ARTCCs Jan. '69-Mar, '70 1584 1201 75.8



TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE

1. Report No. | 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.
FAA-AM-72~33 |

4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date
ATTRITION-RETENTION RATES OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL November _1972
TRAINEES RECRUITED DURING 1960-1963 AND 1968-1970 &. Performing Organization Code

7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No.

Bart B. Cobb, M.S., John J. Mathews, B.A., and
Peter L. Nelson, B.A.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Wark Unit No.
FAA Civil Aeromedical Institute
P. 0. Box 25082 TT. Contract or Grant No.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73125

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

12. Sponsoring Agency Nome and Addres«
Office of Aviation Medicine
Federal Aviation Administration OAM Report
800 Independence Avenue, S.W. 14. Sponsoring Agency Code
Washington, D. C. 20591

15. Supplementary Notes

This research was conducted under Tasks No. AM-B-69-PSY-5, AM-A-70-PSY-5,
AM-B-71-PSY-5, and AM-B-72-PSY-5.

16. Abstract
This study involved a total of 6,367 subjects in three ATCS options. Of these,
2,000 entered FAA Academy training during 1960 to 1963, before an ATC-Aptitude Test
Battery became operational in the screening of most applicants. The remaining
4,367 subjects, the vast majority of whom were selected from among aptitude-screened|
applicants, entered the Academy's basic training courses during October 1968 through]
March 1970. Percentages reflecting Academy elimination rates for entrants of the
earlier and later time periods, respectively, were: 20.9 and 19.3 for Terminal Area]
Traffic Control (TATC) personnel, 32.0 and 17.9 for Air Route Traffic Control Center
(ARTCC) trainees, and 18.5 and 12.8 for the Flight Service Station (FSS) option.
Irrespective of training option, the Academy eliminees represented 26.2% of the
2,000 pre-1964 recruits and 17.9% of the 4,367 entrants of the more recent time
period. Using 1 December 1971 as a common date for follow-up purposes, it was
determined that the post-Academy attrition rates for the TATC, ARTCC, and FSS
entrants of 1960-1963 were 16.0, 22.8, and 18.1%, respectively (averaging 19.6),
whereas corresponding rates for those recruited only 20 to 38 months prior to the
follow-up date were 10.1, 20.3, and 5.9 (averaging 17.2%). The study also revealed
that personnel who were exempted from the aptitude-screening requirement and entered]
training at the GS-9 level or higher (on the basis of specialized pre-FAA experi-
ence) had appreciably higher Academy graduation rates but lower post-Academy
retention rates at high-traffic-density TATC and ARTCC facilities than did the
conventionally recruited trainees.

17. Key Words 18, Distribution Statement
Air Traffic Controller Availability is unlimited. Document may
Training Attrition Ibe released to the National Technical
Personnel Selection Information Service, Springfield, Virginia
Career Success 22151, for sale to the public.

19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) i No. of Pages | 22. Price

Unclassified Unclassified 31 $3.00

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-69)



(Except where otherwise noted, differences be-
tween corresponding rates and proportions pre-
sented in this report were tested for statistical
significance through use of the % ratio method.)

Exactly 82% of the En Routes were eliminated
from training while at the Academy; this was
significantly higher (p<.01) than the Academy
attrition rates of 20.9% and 18.5% obtained for
the Terminals and FSSs, respectively. Post-
Academy attrition rates (as based on each total
input) were 16.0% for the Terminals, 22.8% for

difference between the ARTCC and TATC rates
was statistically significant (p<.01).

Although not shown, percentages were also
computed reflecting the post-Academy attrition
rates of only those who successfully completed
Academy training. The percentages were 20.2,
33.4, and 22.3 for the TATC, ARTCC, and FSS
graduates, respectively. The difference between
the TATC and FSS rates was not statistically
significant, but both were significantly lower
(p<.01) than the 33.4% obtained for the ARTCC

the En Routes, and 18.1% for the FSSs; only the — subjects. These findings illustrate that the En
907
807
70 4 + + +
~—
Retentions + — +
604 —~ 4
Per Cent — t+
of FSS
ATCS 504
Trainee
Groups 404
304
Academy Attritions a >
x “ ‘ x
roy ® a x g
N --? °
104 x ° , --
Post-Academy Attritions
Sep-Oct Nov-Dec Jan-Feb Mar-Apr May-Jun Jul-Aug Total
1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963
Retentions (Dec. '71)

N Cases 19 30 30 25 31 29 164
— Per Cent_of Group _ 67.9 _ _ 68.2 _ 62-5 _ _ 5925. — 58-3 — — 6529 _ 63.3
Post-Acad, Attritions

N Cases 3 5 12 3 16 8 47
_ Per Cent_of Group __10.7 _ _ M.4_ _ 25.0 _ _ Jal _ 3002 _ _ 1822 _ 18-1
Academy Attritions

N Cases 6 9 6 14 6 7 48
_ Per Cent_of Group _ 21.4 _ _ 20.5. _ 12.5 _ _ 3323. _ 11.3 _ _ 1529_ _ _185
Total N of Group 28 44 48 42 53 44 259

Fieure 4. Percentages of entrants into Academy basic FSS training during September 1962 through August 1963

who were attrited at the Academy, were attrited at
1971.

their facility, or were still in FAA ATC work in December

10


training whereas the post-Academy attrition
rate of those who survived basic training was
34%. Conversely, the lowest of the post-Acad-
emy attrition rates was 8.3% for the graduates
of the November-December 1962 classes from
which 25% were eliminated at the Academy.
Although there were exceptions, the rates tended
to vary inversely with each other. Spearman’s
rank-difference correlation method was employed
to assess their relationship. The resulting rho
coefficient was —.40, indicating a moderate and
statistically significant (p<.05) inverse relation-
ship. The finding of a significant negative
correlation between the two variables provides
empirical support for the philosophy of the
1960-1963 period, i.e., that the Academy’s basic

training courses should serve to further screen,
as well as initially train, newly hired ATCS
personnel.

B. Comparison of Terminal, En Route, and
FSS Trainees of 1960-1963. Figures 2, 3, and 4
follow the same format as Figure 1, but present
attrition and retention rates separately for the
733 entrants into the Academy’s TATC course
(Figure 2), the 1,008 who entered the ARTCC
course (Figure 3), and the 259 FSS enrollees
(Figure 4).

As of December 1971, 63.1% (N=463) of the
former TATC students and 63.3% (N=164) of
the FSSs were still in the air traffic management
system compared to a significantly lower (p<.01)
proportion of 45.2% (N=456) of the En Routes.

9077
80-4
704
Per Cent 604 Retentions
of En Route + +
ATCS 504 + 4 TM~ 4 °
Trainee + ~— “ +
Groups ] + TM~
40 ‘academy Attritions * a’
x Ose. ae ‘ °
304 x --7 * aL “0 —
.7” ~ x Post-Acad. Attritions NM
© --- . ~ ae x
207 ° A _x v7?
xo7 7st xX
104
Sep-Dec Jan-Apr May-Aug Sep-Dec Jan-Apr May-Aug Sept. =‘ Total
1960 1961 1961 1961 1962 1962 1962
Retentions (Dec. '71)

N Cases 74 57 65 14 456
— Per Cent_of Group 5 Leb S44 _ 4729 _ _ 3621 _ 53-8 _ _ 45a?
Post-Acad. Attritions

N Cases 39 57 58 22 21 25 7 229
_ Per Cent_of Group _ _29.8 _ _ 30s8_ _ 25.1 _ _ la? _ 17.6 _ _ 1329_ _ 76-2 _ _ 2228
Academy Attritions

N Cases 30 40 77 40 4l 90 5 323
_ Per Cent_of Group _ 22.9 _ _ 21.6. _ 33.3 _ _ 2924. _ 34-5 _ _ 5020_ _ _19.2 _ _ 3240
Total N of Group 131 185 231 136 119 180 26 1008

Fievre 8. Percentages of entrants into Academy basic ARTCC training during September 1960 through September
1962 who were attrited at the Academy, were attrited at their facility, or were still in FAA ATC work in

December 1971.





Since ATCSs make up about one-half of the
FAA work force, some comparisons of their an-
nual attrition rates with rates of non-ATCS
FAA personnel provide another occupational
perspective. The same caveat noted above with
regard to differences in the types of occupations
(as well as average GS-grade levels and other
characteristics), of course, applies to these com-
parisons. However, based on FAA personnel
tapes, we have calculated the average attrition
rate for all FAA employees noé in the air traffic
control occupational specialty to have been ap-
proximately 13.5, 9.3, and 9.1% for calendar
years 1969, 1970, and 1971, respectively (averag-
ing 10.6% for the three years). The rates during
the same time periods for all ATCSs were 5.7,
7.8, and 5.0% (averaging 6.3%). If the assump-
tion is made that those who were attrited from
the FAA Academy would have been later ATCS
attritions anyway, then, following selection and
Academy screening, the attrition rates of ATCSs
would drop to approximately 3.3, 5.6, and 4.9%,
respectively, for the 1969 through 1971 periods
(a three-year attrition rate averaging 4.6%).

Addendum. Another way to look at these
three-year attrition rates is to make longitudinal
comparisons between ATCSs and non-controller
FAA personnel. Subsequent to the completion
of this report, data were made available by
FAA’s Office of Manpower (AMN-23) regard-
ing all full-time GS employees (ie., excluding
temporary or part-time help) hired during the
six-month period between October 1968 through
March 1969. During that period, 949 ATCSs
(including many who entered the Academy dur-
ing April or later) were hired at the GS-5
through GS-9 levels; a total of 217 non-ATC
FAA employees were also hired at those same
levels. The overall attrition rate (as of December
1971) for the 217 non-controllers was 32.7% ; for
the 949 ATCSs, the rate was 24.6% (including
Academy failures).

IV. Summary.

This study involved comparison of Academy
basic training elimination rates and post-Acad-
emy attrition and retention rates of FAA Air
Traffic Control Specialist (ATCS) personnel
who were recruited during each of two widely
separated time periods for each of three different
types of ATCS training. Data were obtained
for a total of 6,367 former trainees. Exactly

2,000 of the 6,367 entered the Academy during
September 1960 through August 1963, before the
Civil Service Commission (CSC) ATC-Aptitude
Test Screening Battery became operational in the
screening of most applicants. The 2,000 included
733 entrants into Terminal Area Traffic Control
(TATC) training, 1,008 Air Route Traffic Con-
trol Center (ARTCC) trainees, and 259 Flight
Service Station (FSS) personnel. The remain-
ing 4,367 subjects, the vast majority of whom
were required to qualify on the CSC Test, entered
the Academy during October 1968 through
March 1970; 935 of the 4,367 were TATC train-
ees, 3,159 were ARTCC personnel, and 273 were
FSSs.

Percentages reflecting the Academy elimination
rates for the earlier versus the later time periods,
respectively, were: 20.9 and 19.3 for the TATC
personnel, 32.0 and 17.9 for the ARTCC trainees
(this difference was statistically significant at the
.01 level), and 18.5 and 12.8 for the FSSs. The
mean Academy elimination rate of 26.2% for the
2,000 total pre-1964 trainees was significantly
higher (p<.01) than the 17.0% rate obtained
for the 4,367 recruits of the more recent time
period. Moreover, the 17.9% rate was only
slightly higher than a rate of 16.4% which we
had projected on the basis of results obtained in
an earlier study wherein 893 pre-1964 trainees
were experimentally examined with the CSC
Test Battery (before it was adopted for opera-
tional use).

Follow-up procedures ‘were employed whereby
those subjects who were still in ATO work on
1 December 1971 were designated as “retentions”
while those eliminated after completion of Acad-
emy training were designated as “post-Academy
attritions.” The post-Academy attrition rates for
the TATC, ARTCC, and FSS entrants of 1960-
1963 were 16.0, 22.8, and 18.1%, respectively,
whereas the corresponding rates for the recruits
of 1968-1970 were 10.1, 20.3, and 5.9%. The
ARTCC option was the only one for which the
difference between the rates was not statistically
significant.

Analyses pertaining to subgroups, each com-
prised of one to four former incoming classes of
the Academy’s TATC, ARTCC, or FSS training
courses, yielded significant inverse relationships
between the Academy elimination rates and
post-Academy attrition rates of the trainees.



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retention rates were then determined for the
entrants into each training option during each of
the successive two-month intervals (see Figures
6, 7, and 8).

For reasons explained earlier, the Academy
elimination rates of trainees of all options who
entered the training school during the latter part
of 1968 were exceptionally low. As may be noted,
however, the Academy failure rates rose to ap-
preciably higher levels in 1969. For example,
the TATC failure rate was 14.3% for the input
of January-February 1969 and, although it
dropped to 9.8 for the next two-month interval,
it then rose progressively to a high of 28.2% for
the entrants of January-February 1970 (see
Figure 6). The TATC post-Academy attrition
rate, which was no lower than 11.5% until
March-April 1969, rose to 16.2 for the input of
May-June 1969 and then decreased rather sharply
while the Academy elimination rate increased to
levels exceeding 25%.

The ARTCC Academy elimination rate (see
Figure 7) rose from 5.7% at the beginning of
1969 to a high of 26.6% for the input of Septem-
ber-October 1969 and then gradually declined to
13.7% for the entrants of March 1970. The post-
Academy attrition rate for the En Routes (based
on number of entrants) ranged from 21.8 to
32.5% until March 1969 and, after dropping to
21.7 for the input of March-April 1969, there-
after ranged no higher than 20.7 and no lower
than 16.4%.

Both the Academy and post-Academy attrition
rates of personnel who entered FSS training
were generally lower, yet proportionately more
variable, than those obtained for the Terminal
and En Route recruits of 1968-1970. Moreover,
an examination of the data presented in Figure 8
will reveal that the total number of FSS cases
comprising the input of each two-month interval
was usually rather small. Consequently, the at-
trition rates of both types for the successive
subgroups should not be considered as having
good reliability. Nevertheless, it is of interest
to note that the inputs of “October 1968” and
“November-December 1968” had Academy elim-
ination rates of zero and post-Academy attrition
rates of 12.5 and 15.6%, respectively—with each
of the latter being higher than obtained for other
subgroups. The FSS entrants of September-
October 1969 had an Academy failure rate of
26.7%, which was nearly twice as great as that

of any other subgroup; they also represented
the only FSS input for which the post-Academy
attrition rate was zero.

In accomplishing the analyses wherein the
post-Academy attrition rates of the Academy
graduates only were computed and compared
against the Academy elimination rates of the
entrants, grouping procedures resulted in the
establishment of 17 TATC subgroups, 18
ARTCC subgroups, and 15 FSS_ subgroups.
Each subgroup represented the input of a one-
month period. Although the results obtained in
these analyses are not presented in any table or
figure, some of the more important findings will
be discussed below.

The Academy failure rates for the 17 tempo-
rally arranged subgroups of TATC entrants
ranged from 0.0 to 45.5% and averaged 19.3%.
The post-Academy attrition rates of the Acad-
emy graduates in the 17 subgroups ranged from
0.0 to 25% and averaged 12.5%. ‘The class of
September 1969, for which the Academy elimina-
tion rate was 45.5%, included no individuals
who, after successful completion of basic train-
ing, were attrited at their facilities of assign-
ment. The two subgroups having the next
highest Academy failure rates (of 33.3% each)
also had post-Academy attrition rates of 0.0%.
On the other hand, the three TATC subgroups
for which the Academy elimination rates were
0.0% had post-Academy attrition rates of 9.5,
14.0, and 25.0%. With the exception of certain
subgroups, each type of attrition rate generally
varied inversely with the other. This was veri-
fied by a Spearman rank correlation coefficient
of —.76, which was significant at the .01 level.

The attrition rates of the ARTCC training
course graduates at their facilities ranged from
17.3 to 43.3% and averaged 24.7. However, the
graduates in only three of the 18 temporally
arranged subgroups had attrition rates exceeding
30%, and the Academy failure rates of the
classes of which they were former members were
44, 9.1, and 15.5%. The lowest of the post-
Academy attrition rates (i.e. 17.3%) pertained
to the ARTCC class of February 1970, for which
the Academy elimination rate was 16.8%. The
next lowest attrition rate was 21.4% for grad-
uates of a class in which 25.4% of the entrants
failed to pass the T-202 course. Although rela-
tively restricted in range, the post-Academy at-
trition rates correlated negatively with the


Table 6
Percentage of trainees by training option, facility level, and GS-level who
successfully completed Academy basic training and were still in FAA ATC work
in December 1971. (Data pertain to only those personnel who entered

Academy basic training during January 1969 through March 1970.)

Academy Training Facility Training
Entrants
During Graduates Per Cent of
1969 and Per Cent Academy Graduates
Training Facility G.S. Jan.-Mar. of Still in FAA ATC
Option Level Level 1970 N Entrants Work in Dec. '71
Terminal Iv 9&> 35 33 94.3 84.9
7&< 49 4. 83.7 92.7
Total 84 74 88.1 89.2

Both 9&> 450 377 83.8 74.3
Levels 7T& 2272 1785 78.6 76.0

eo eee eee Total __ 2722, _ 2162 79.4 IS
F.S. S. 9& > 48 40 83.3 97.5
T&S 185 158 85.4 94.3
Total 233 198 85.0 94.9
All All 9& > 736 615 83.6 79.2
Options Levels 7&~ 3043 2390 78.5 79.7
Total 3779 3005 79.5 79.6

26


and-selection standards during October 1968
through March 1970, one objective of the study
was to determine and compare both the Academy
elimination rates and post-Academy attrition
rates of personnel recruited during the different
time periods for each of the training options.
A second, and perhaps the most important, pur-
pose of the study was to ascertain’ the degree to
which variance in the Academy elimination rate
of each group and subgroup (i., training op-
tion) might be associated with that of the post-
Academy attrition rate. A third major objective
was to compare the retention rates of Academy
ATCS graduates at En Route and Terminal
facilities of different air-traffic-density levels.

II. Method.

The study involved a total of 6,367 former
students of the Academy’s basic training courses
in En Route, Terminal, and Flight Service Sta-
tion procedures. The vast majority of the 6,367
had been appointed to ATC training less than
three weeks before entry into the Academy. All
were members of classes, or groups, which entered
the Academy during specific time periods in
which CAMI was engaged in extensive experi-
mental testing programs. Inasmuch as the pro-
cedures and results relating to the different
phases of that research have been summarized in
a number of earlier publications,’ *7*°** + they
will not be reviewed in detail in this report.
However, it should be emphasized that this
follow-up study pertains only to those former
classes of each training course for which CAMI
collected a variety of data in connection with the
earlier studies.

A. 1960-1963 Groups. Exactly 2,000 of the
6,367 subjects entered Academy basic training
during September 1960 through August 1963.
When CAMI initiated its ATCS selection re-
search in September 1960, the Academy was con-
ducting three basic ATC training courses.
Personnel recruited for work at Terminal, or
Tower, facilities were assigned to the T-303
course in which the instruction and training
focused upon Terminal Area Traffic Control
(TATC) procedures. En Route, or Center,
trainees attended the T-302 course, in which Air
Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) proce-
dures were emphasized. Similarly, Flight Serv-
ice Station recruits received specialized training

in the FSS T-304 course. Each of the three
courses was of eight weeks duration.

Due to research priorities, no data were col-
lected on groups which entered the FSS course
prior to 7 September 1962. It was announced in
August of that year that the ARTCC course was
to be discontinued and that the last En Route
class would enter training on 21 September. Ar-
rangements were then made to extend the re-
search to include all FSS trainees who entered
during September 1962 and thereafter. The
aptitude testing program and the collection of
other data for the FSS and TATC trainees con-
tinued until 23 August 1963, on which date the
last class entered the TATC course before that
course was abolished and subsequent classes for
the FSS course (which was eliminated some time
later) were so small that they were excluded
from all CAMI studies.

The groups of subjects, by training option, for
which data were collected prior to September
1963 and which were included in the present
study were as follows:

(1) 788 students of the Terminal TATC T-303
training course who entered the Academy during
September 1960 through August 1963.

(2) 1,008 En Route trainees who entered the
Academy’s ARTCC T-302 course during Sep-
tember 1960 through September 1962.

(3) 259 FSS trainees who enrolled in the
Academy’s T-304 course during September 1962
through August 1963.

B. 1968-1970 Groups. From 1964 until the
latter part of 1968, budgetary limitations severely
restricted the recruitment of personnel for ATCS
training; no basic training courses were con-
ducted at the Academy, and CAMI engaged in
no detailed studies involving the few hundred
trainees who were recruited during that period
and who received basic training at their respec-
tive facilities of assignment. In 1968, however,
a rapid expansion of the air traffic management
system was undertaken. Funding was substan-
tially increased, the FAA implemented a new
program for accelerating the recruitment of
ATCS trainees, and the Academy was again des-
ignated to provide basic training to newly hired
control personnel.

Inasmuch as the basic training courses for En
Route, Terminal, and FSS personnel had been
discontinued almost five years earlier, the scope


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15



ATTRITION-RETENTION RATES OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
TRAINEES RECRUITED DURING 1960-1963 AND 1968-1970

I, Introduction.

During the past 12 years, the Federal Aviation
Administration’s Civil Aeromedical Institute
(CAMI) has conducted extensive research bear-
ing upon the usefulness of various aptitude test
measures, evaluations of pre-FAA experience,
assessments of educational background, chron-
ological age, and other variables for selection of
personnel for training as Air Traffic Control
Specialists (ATCSs). The ultimate objective of
such research has been the identification of fac-
tors having validity for prediction of success at
the journeyman-level controller position.

In most instances, predictor variables were
first validated against criterion measures which
were more readily available. For example,
grades reflecting performance in the academic
and laboratory phases of the Academy’s basic
training courses and “pass-fail status” for Acad-
emy training were the only criteria utilized in
some of the studies.2?°°78*?? In a number of
other studies, ***°712% the predictor variables
were validated against Academy training per-
formance measures and also against indices of
post-Academy training progress and/or “attri-
tion-retention status” of personnel for periods of
one to eight years after entry into training.
Moreover, experimental performance-rating pro-
cedures were developed and employed in several
follow-up studies‘ * ** 2° #128 because the officially
derived ratings (e.g., those based on the “Em-
ployee Appraisal Record,” and others which
were rendered primarily for remedial or diag-
nostic purposes) offered little potential for
individual differentiation. The experimental
ratings submitted by supervisors, crew chiefs, and
peers of the subjects were somewhat less “haloed”
than those rendered for official purposes but, like

The assistance of Dana Hauserman and Barbara
Mallett in the collection, processing, and/or analysis of
the data is gratefully acknowledged.

the latter, they did not possess a very high degree
of reliability.

It is not at all uncommon in personnel selection
research to experience great difficulty in obtaining
criterion measures which are considered fully
satisfactory. According to Thorndike and
Hagen,” two of the best known authorities in the
field, “the most troublesome part of personnel
selection is to get reliable, unbiased, and relevant
measures of success on the job.” In most situa-
tions, measures with such characteristics either
do not exist or they are apt to be very few in
number. Moreover, their development is par-
ticularly difficult if the man-machine system is
an extremely complex one which is undergoing
continual evolution. This is much the type of
situation with which CAMI and other FAA
investigators have been confronted in research
on ATCS personnel; there has generally been
little recourse other than to deal with the cri-
terion data set forth in the official records.

Although none of the wide variety of variables
used as criteria in CAMI’s ATC selection re-
search may be deemed entirely satisfactory,
there are two which have been consistently re-
garded as more important than all others. Both
relate to the attrition-retention status of person-
nel, with the first reflecting graduation or elimi-
nation from Academy basic training, and the
other denoting post-Academy attrition-retention
status at specified points in time.

The present report pertains to a follow-up
study in which updated records of 1 December
1971 were used to ascertain the long-range
attrition-retention status of each ATCS subject
who entered Academy basic training as a member
of any of the classes for which CAMI collected
data in connection with its ATC selection re-
search of the past 12 years. Inasmuch as a large
proportion of the subjects were enrollees of the
period September 1960 through August 1963
while others entered under different qualification-



Table 5
Facility-training retention rates of Academy-Basic-ARTCC-Training-
Course graduates at fourteen Level-I Centers.

OOOO eee

Facility Training Retentions
(still in FAA ATC work

Air Route Academy as_of December 1971)
Traffic Control Training Academy N Per Cent of
Center to Which Entry Graduates Per Academy Graduates

Assigned Periods N Group Group All Groups
Miami Jan-June '69 47 34 72.3

Florida July-Dec '69 15 12 80.0
Memphis

Tennessee
Albuquerque Jan-June '69 34 25 73.5

New Mexico July-Dec '69 14 10 71.4
Denver Jan-June '69 25 17 68.0

(Longmont ) July-Dec '69 15 13 86.7
— Colorado _ _ _ _ _ __Jar 90.9
Seattle

(Auburn)
~— Washington ___ _ _Jar
Minneapolis

(Farmington)
= Minnesota ___ _ _ _ Jan-Mar_ 170 ___ 32 LL
Salt Lake City Jan-June '69 16 14 87.5

Utah July-Dec '69 15 14 93.3

78.3

Honolulu Jan-June '69 6 4 66.7

Hawaii July-Dec '69 6 3 50.0
~----------- Jan-Mar_ 170 ____8 Li 5... 62.5 _ _ 60.0 __

San Juan Jan-June '69 1 1 100.0

Puerto Rico July-Dec '69 4 3 75.0

ir 80.0

Anchorage

Alaska
Great Falls “Jan-June "69 1 1 100.0

Montana July-Dec '69 1 1 100.0
-~----------- JansMar_ 170 100
Guam, M. I. and Jan-June '69 2 L 50.0
Balboa, C. 2. and July-Dec '69
Fairbanks, Al. Total Jan-Mar _'70 50.0
Total for fourteen

Level-I ARTCCs Jan. '69-Mar. '70 578 436 75.4





level or higher. Moreover, they were not re-
quired to qualify on the CSC ATC-Aptitude
Screening Battery. Most trainees, however,
failed to qualify under the specialized-experience
standard; they usually possessed ATC experience
but not enough to warrant exemption of the
aptitude-screening requirement nor appointment
to pay grades higher than GS-7.

Table 6 presents the Academy graduation rates
and post-Academy retention rates of 736 trainees
of the GS-9 level and higher, and corresponding
data for 3,043 trainees who entered at the GS-7
level or lower during January 1969 through
March 1970. (No trainees entered at the GS-8
level after 1 January 1969.) Looking first at the
summary data shown in the lower portion of
Table 6, it should be noted that 838.6% (N=615)
of the 736 higher-rated trainees and 78.59
(N=2,390) of the remaining trainees successfully
completed Academy training. Although not of
great magnitude, the difference between the
Academy graduation rates of the two groups was
statistically significant (p<.01) due to the large
numbers of cases involved. However, the overall
facility-training retention rate of the Academy
graduates among the higher GS-rated trainees
was slightly lower, though not significantly
lower, than that of the graduates having pay
grades lower than GS-9.

Table 6 also presents, by training option, the
Academy graduation rates and post-Academy
retention rates for the different GS-rated groups
and, with the exception of FSS trainees, for
subgroups recruited for the different levels of
facilities. For FSS personnel, where no distinc-
tion was made with respect to level of facility
for which recruited, the nonsignificant difference
between the Academy graduation rates (of 83.3
and 85.4) favored the aptitude-screened trainees
of the lower GS levels, while the nonsignificant
difference between the post-Academy retention
rates (i.e., 97.5 and 94.3) favored the more ex-
perienced and higher-rated trainees. Regard-
less of the level of facility for which recruited,
the Terminal and En Route trainees who quali-
fied for the higher-than-normal pay grades had
slightly higher Academy graduation rates than
those hired at the GS-7 level and lower.

However, a comparison of the post-Academy
retention rates of the dichotomized groups of
Academy graduates (see Table 6) indicated that

27

those of the GS-9 level and higher tended to
experience more difficulty than the lower GS-
rated personnel at TATC facilities of both the
Level-IV and Level-III categories. In other
words, the retention rates of the “GS-9’s and
higher” were substantially below those of the
“GS-7’s and lower” at the busiest TATC facili-
ties, At the lower-ranked TATC facilities, their
mean retention rate of 88.4% was less than one
percentage point above that established for the
combined groups of GS~7’s, GS-6’s, and GS-5’s.
At the Level-II ARTCC facilities, the retentions
represented 73.5% of the “GS-9’s and higher”
and 76.3% of the “GS~-7’s and lower.” The
retention rates of the different GS-groupings
were also quite comparable at the Level-I Cen-
ters; the percentages were 76.2 and 75.3, with the
negligibly higher rate pertaining to the higher
paid group.

The Terminal and En Route personnel who
were recruited at the GS-9 level and higher
generally possessed appreciably greater amounts
of pre-FAA ATC experience than recruits of the
lower pay grades. A reasonable assumption is
that their greater experience enabled them to
learn more easily the materials and procedures
presented in the TATC and ARTCC basic train-
ing courses—thus explaining why their Academy
graduation rates were higher than those of the
less experienced personnel.

However, the reasons are unclear as to why the
post-Academy retention rates of the higher-rated
and more experienced trainees were lower than
those of the less experienced trainees at Level-II
Centers and at TATC facilities of Levels IV and
III (and were barely higher at ARTCC and
TATC facilities of lower levels). Such findings
do not necessarily imply that pre-FAA experi-
ence is of little or no value to a trainee after
Academy graduation; instead, they may have
been due, at least in part, to the effects of age
upon performance. Previous studies*? °** 2° have
consistently shown chronological age to be in-
versely related (at highly significant levels) to
numerous aptitude test measures, various indices
of training progress, and ratings of job perform-
ance.

One study,’ involving 710 aptitude-exempted
trainees of the advanced GS levels (all of whom
are included in the groups referred to in Table
6), revealed that the mean age of the 710 was
33,1 years and that almost 23% were 35 years of



Route personnel experienced appreciably greater
difficulty than personnel of the other two options
both in completing Academy training and in
post-Academy career advancement phases. A
matter of possible relevance is that most trainees
in the En Route and Terminal options possessed
prior military experience as tower controllers;
this being so, the ARTCC (or En Route) course
may have presented certain “transitional difficul-
ties” which the TATC course did not.

The group of Terminal subjects was divided
into nine subgroups, with the subgroups repre-
senting entrants into the TATC course during
each of nine 4-month intervals. The mean attri-
tion rates were then computed and plotted
(Figure 2) for the successive intervals. Data of
the En Route trainees were also grouped in terms
of four-month intervals but all subjects of the
last, or seventh, subgroup entered during one
month, September 1962. As may be recalled, no
data were collected for the FSS trainees who
arrived at the Academy prior to 7 September
1962 and only 259 entered the T-304 course after
that date. For these reasons, the group of 259
FSSs was divided into only six subgroups, rep-
resenting the inputs of sta 2-month intervals.

The three figures illustrate that both types of
attrition rates for personnel of every training
option were quite variable across the temporally
arranged subgroups. Moreover, the plotted rates
for the TATC personnel (see Figure 2), supple-
mented by those of the En Route ATCSs (see
Figure 3), suggest that the changes in the rates
were not random fluctuations. Instead, they ap-
pear to have been associated with time of entry
into training. For example, Figure 2 indicates
that the Academy elimination rates were less
than 10% for the four TATC subgroups which
began training prior to January 1962, whereas
the post-Academy rates of the same subgroups
were 12.9, 26.1, 31.1, and 22.2%. The Academy
elimination rates for the TATC inputs of the
next five 4-month intervals were 29.2, 25.0, 35.8,
38.3, and 26.5%; in contrast, the post-Academy
attrition rates of the five subgroups dropped to
14.6, 16.7, 3.0, 9.1, and 7.8%. For En Route
personnel recruited prior to May 1961, the Acad-
emy elimination rates were no higher than 23%
while the post-Academy attrition rates were
around 30%. Academy elimination rates of the
ARTCC personnel who entered thereafter tended
to be appreciably higher, reaching 50% for the

11

inputs of May-August 1962, whereas the post-
Academy attrition rates were generally much
lower than obtained for the earlier recruited
personnel.

Although the results are not presented in any
table or figure, analyses were also accomplished
wherein the post-Academy attrition rates were
computed, by training option, for the Academy
graduates only. The pre-1964 TATC subjects
were divided into 18 subgroups, each of which
represented the combined incoming classes for
the TATC course during a two-month interval.
Similar procedures resulted in the establishment
of 18 subgroups of ARTCC subjects. Inasmuch
as all 259 FSS subjects entered: training within
a period of only one year, and none entered
during December of 1962, they were divided into
11 subgroups, with each representing a one-
month input.

The post-Academy attrition rates of the TATC
Academy graduates averaged 20.2% and ranged
from 0.0% for classes of November-December
1962 (from which 30.6% had been attrited at the
Academy) to 40.5% for TATC inputs of July-
August 1961 (for which the Academy elimination
rate had been only 6.7%). ARTCC personnel
who survived Academy basic training had an
overall facility-of-assignment attrition rate of
33.4%; the lowest was 13.0% for subjects who
entered as members of the July-August 1962
classes for which the Academy attrition rate was
56.6%; the highest was 47.2% for graduates of
En Route classes of January-February 1961 for
which the Academy elimination rate was 22.1%.
The mean post-Academy attrition rate of all pre-
1964 FSS training course graduates was 22.3%.
There were no post-Academy attritions among
the graduates of the FSS class of September
1962 who had seen 28.6% of their classmates
eliminated while at the Academy. In contrast,
the highest of the post-Academy attrition rates
for personnel who had successfully completed
the FSS course was 40%; it pertained to former
members of a June 1963 class in which less than
12% of all who initially enrolled failed to be
awarded ATCS certificates.

The Spearman rank-difference correlation
method was employed to assess the relationship
of the Academy elimination rates of the sub-
groups (or classes) to the post-Academy attrition
rates of the Academy graduates represented in
the various subgroups. Each of the resulting



training courses were implemented. The remain-
ing 437 T-305 students were En Route personnel ;
the ARTCC Course did not become operational
until 8 January 1969. The overall Academy at-
trition rate for the combined inputs of the three
special courses was only 7.7% for the “January-
February 1969” interval but rose to 11.8% for
the ensuing two months. Thereafter, the Acad-
emy eliminees generally represented 20 to 25%
of the inputs. The trend reflected by the plotted
data tends to support the contention, alluded to
earlier, that the training courses and performance
evaluation standards did not become fully stab-
ilized until April 1969.

Figure 5 also reveals considerable variability
in the post-Academy attrition rate for the 1968-
1970 recruits. Slightly over 19% of those who
entered the Academy in October 1968 were at-
trited subsequent to training school graduation.
The post-Academy attrition rate then rose to

24.5% for personnel who entered training during
the interval “November-December 1968” and to
26.9% for the “January-February 1969” entrants.
Thereafter, the post-Academy rate dropped to
substantially lower levels, reaching a low of
13.4% for the “January-February 1970” entrants.

In determining the post-Academy attrition
rates of the Academy graduates only, the 1968-
1970 total group of 4,367 subjects was divided
into 17 temporally arranged subgroups, each of
which represented the input of a one-month
period. Table 2 presents the Academy elimina-
tion rates of the various subgroups and the sub-
sequent (i.e., field-facility level) attrition rates
of those who successfully completed Academy
basic training. The Academy elimination rates
ranged from 0.4 to 35.9% and averaged 17.9, and
the post-Academy attrition rates of the graduates
ranged from 18.8 to 32.6% and averaged 20.9.
The Academy elimination rates of the four

Table 2

Rates of elimination from Academy training for 1968-1970 ATCS personnel of all options and attrition

rates for GRADUATES of Academy training after returning to field facilities.

Entrants Into

Per Cent of ENTRANTS

Per Cent of GRADUATES

Academy Training Academy Training Eliminated During of Academy Training
Entry Periods N Academy Training Attrited at Facilities
1968
October 151 1.3 19.5
November 253 0.4 25.8
December 184 1.6 23.2
1969
January 106 47 27.7
February 50 14.0 32.6
March 86 11.6 27.6
April 202 11.9 18.5
May 548 16.8 27.6
June 348 27.3 17.8
July 402 19.7 17.6
August 157 29.3 18.9
September 7 35.9 21,3
October 7 20.5 21.3
November 119 19.3 24.0
December 222 26.1 177
1970
January 585 22.1 18.9
February 318 20.4 13.8
March 348 18.4 18.0
Total 4367 17.9 20.9

Correlation between Academy elimination rates and post-Academy attrition rates (rho coefficient):

-.51*

* Statistically significant at the .05 level.