After you have read this research report, please

give us your frank opinion on the contents. All

comments––large or small, complimentary or

caustic––will be gratefully appreciated. Mail them

to CADRE/AR, Building 1400, 401 Chennault

Circle, Maxwell AFB AL 36112–6428.

Thank you for your assistance.

............................................................................................... .

Cut along dotted line 

Unmanned Airlift

A Viable Option for Meeting the Strategic

Airlift Shortfall

Manske
COLLEGE OF AEROSPACE DOCTRINE,

RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

AIR UNIVERSITY

Unmanned Airlift

A Viable Option for Meeting the

Strategic Airlift Shortfall

CHAD T. MANSKE

Lieutenant Colonel, USAF

CADRE Paper No. 18

Air University Press

Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 36112-6615

September 2004
ii

Air University Library Cataloging Data

Manske, Chad T.

Unmanned airlift : a viable option for meeting the strategic airlift shortfall / Chad T.

Manske.

—p. ; cm. –– (CADRE paper, 1537-3371 ; no. 18)

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 1-58566-131-7

1. Airlift Military––United States. 2. Drone aircraft. 3. Vehicles, Remotely piloted. I.

Title. II. Series. III. Air University (U.S.). College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research and

Education.

358.44/09/73––dc22

This CADRE Paper and others in the series are available

electronically at the Air University Research Web site

http://research.maxwell.af.mil and the AU Press Web site

http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil.

Disclaimer

Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of

the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Air University, the United States Air

Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited.
CADRE Papers

CADRE Papers are occasional publications sponsored by

the Airpower Research Institute of Air University’s College of

Aerospace Doctrine, Research and Education (CADRE). Dedicated to promoting the understanding of air and space power

theory and application, these studies are published by Air

University Press and broadly distributed to the US Air Force,

the Department of Defense and other governmental organizations, leading scholars, selected institutions of higher learning, public-policy institutes, and the media.

All military members and civilian employees assigned to Air

University are invited to contribute unclassified manuscripts

that deal with air and/or space power history, theory, doctrine

or strategy, or with joint or combined service matters bearing

on the application of air and/or space power.

Authors should submit three copies of a double-spaced,

typed manuscript and an electronic version of the manuscript

on removable media along with a brief (200-word maximum)

abstract. The electronic file should be compatible with Microsoft

Windows and Microsoft Word—Air University Press uses Word

as its standard word-processing program.

Please send inquiries or comments to

Chief of Research

Airpower Research Institute

CADRE

401 Chennault Circle

Maxwell AFB AL 36112-6428

Tel: (334) 953-5508

DSN 493-5508

Fax: (334) 953-6739

DSN 493-6739

E-mail: cadre.research@maxwell.af.mil

iii
Contents

Chapter Page

DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii

FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2 THE STRATEGIC AIRLIFT SHORTFALL . . . . . . . 7

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3 OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

4 TECHNOLOGICAL FEASIBILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

5 FINANCIAL CAPABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

6 ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS, IMPLICATIONS . . . . 89

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

v
Illustrations

Figure Page

1 Mobility requirements study 2005 airlift

requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2 Requirements generation and unmanned

aerial vehicle program development process . . . 22

3 Predicted USAF pilot requirements versus pilot

inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Tables

1 Air mobility command airlift aircraft mission

capability rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2 Summary history of recent unmanned aerial

vehicle programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3 Evaluation of essential unmanned airlift vehicle

measures of merit and concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

vi
Foreword

This study on airlift, written before Operation Iraqi Freedom

began, has greater relevance now that we have some clear lessons about the vital importance of airlift for operations in Iraq

and Afghanistan. In Unmanned Airlift: A Viable Option for Meeting the Strategic Airlift Shortfall, Lt Col Chad T. Manske points

to the growing dependency on strategic airlift as well as the

abiding corollary that there will continue to be a shortfall in

strategic airlift. Quite naturally, he asked whether there might

be a suitable role for unmanned airlift in the Air Force.

To get to the analysis, Colonel Manske raised three crucial

questions: (1) are operational requirements able to justify unmanned airlifters, (2) are current and emerging technologies

likely to meet these potential operational requirements, and (3)

are the operational concepts cost-effective? Unsurprisingly, the

author found a paucity of operational requirements. The first

step in applying new technology is to convince unified combatant commanders and defense planners of a viable potential.

Generally, operational and combat planners think primarily

about capabilities available in the present. In addition, a long

history of unproven aircraft concepts translates to high reluctance by the DOD and senior military leaders to commit funds

to programs that show little near-term prospects of success.

Clear assurances are needed to invest in procurement and acquisition of these new systems and attendant capabilities. The

author suggests that the current shortfall of aircrew, the evident

progress in emerging unmanned aircraft technology, and the

currently increasing funding of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

research and development are all providing impetus to investigate the unmanned airlift concept. 

Colonel Manske thoughtfully provides an interesting scheme

for employing these large vehicles using a monitoring mother

ship to mitigate the very real problem of globally navigating in

controlled airspace occupied by manned aircraft. He is also

hopeful that air traffic management procedures will be upgraded

to support autonomous UAV operations. 

Finally, the author has three suggestions for a DOD investigation:

vii
1. Agents must perform a detailed cost-benefit analysis,

learning best practices from Joint Unmanned Combat

Air Systems and UAV programs.

2. Charge Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency with

the responsibility of determining the feasibility of concepts for unmanned airlift.

3. Use war games to determine and establish a feasible concept of operations and employment.

Originally written as a master’s thesis for Air University’s

School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, the College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research and Education (CADRE) is pleased to

publish this excellent study as a CADRE Paper. Clearly, the careful examination of this unmanned airlift idea with offerings of

workable solutions validates the usefulness of Colonel Manske’s

research, facilitating this publication’s attraction to a large airpower audience.

viii

DANIEL R. MORTENSEN

Chief of Research

Airpower Research Institute, CADRE
About the Author

Lt Col Chad T. Manske received a commission through the

Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps from Michigan State

University in June 1989 and has extensive operational experience flying the KC-135, KC-10, and C-17, accumulating over

3,100 flying hours. Colonel Manske has a bachelor’s degree in

political science from Michigan State University, a master’s

degree in aerospace science and management from EmbryRiddle Aeronautical University, a master’s degree in operational art and science from the Air Command and Staff College, and a master’s degree in airpower art and science from

the United States Air Force’s School of Advanced Air and

Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. He is also

a graduate of the Air War College. Colonel Manske recently

completed a tour as the Air Force special assistant to the commander of United States Joint Forces Command and Supreme

Allied Commander Transformation in Norfolk, Virginia, and is

currently the commander of the 7th Airlift Squadron (C-17s) at

McChord Air Force Base, Washington. 

Colonel Manske has published articles including “Looking

Ahead: Future Airlift,” in the Air Force Journal of Logistics, a required reading for Air War College students, as well as a short article on unmanned airlift in Unmanned Systems Magazine. He is

married to the former Stacey LoPrete, and they have three girls—

Taylor, Madison, and Reilly.

ix
Acknowledgments

I would like to thank my research advisor, Maj John Terino,

and my reader, Dr. Hal Winton, for their encouragement and

guidance in helping me to clarify the issues in this study. I am

grateful to the faculty of the School of Advanced Air and Space

Studies who helped transform our class into budding airpower

strategists. Lastly, I want to thank my wife, Stacey, whose help

in editing drafts was invaluable, and my children who wondered

why their dad had to spend so much time at the computer and

in the books all year. I certainly appreciated their love, patience,

and understanding throughout the year.

xi
Chapter 1

Introduction

The only thing harder than getting a new idea into a military

mind is getting an old one out.

—B. H. Liddell Hart 

During the past decade, the US Air Force became increasingly

aware of the utility of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Positive

experiences with UAVs in the Gulf War and subsequent conflicts

highlighted the ability of these platforms to perform difficult missions with reduced human risk and generated increased demand

among Air Force leaders. These experiences provided a foundation for logical steps forward into an uncertain future. Air Force

UAVs, Predator and Global Hawk, demonstrated capabilities that

provided decision makers with accurate and timely intelligence,

surveillance, and reconnaissance data and firmly established

their role in the USAF force structure. The success of these programs led to the development and testing of unmanned combat

aerial vehicles (UCAV) designed to suppress enemy air defenses

on the battlefield. The current successes enjoyed by the UCAV

development program, now known as the Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program, generated questions about

the utility of UAVs in other roles. One role that merited additional

investigation was airlift. This became the primary research question for this paper: Is there a suitable role for unmanned airlifters

in the Air Force? To discover whether such a need exists, the author examines the current body of literature on the history, development, and future of UAVs. The analysis of this data used

the major elements of military historian Michael Howard’s essay

“Military Science in an Age of Peace” to determine the feasibility

of the unmanned airlift concept. Howard noted that

Military science is like any other kind of science. . . . It progresses . . .

by a sort of triangular dialogue between three elements in the military

bureaucracy: operational requirement, technological feasibility and financial capability. These last two elements proceed according to laws

of their own. Their flexibility cannot be controlled by the military. Financial limitations are a matter of politics. Technological limitations

are questions of scientific expertise. It is in the third element of this

1
triangle—the operational requirement—that the military scientist, as

opposed to the scientist with the military, really has to do his hard

thinking. In discerning operational requirements the real conceptual

difficulties of military science occur.1

This paper addresses the US strategic airlift shortfall and

examines the research question by dividing it into the three elements in Howard’s criteria. The first element analyzes operational airlift requirements to discern the airlift status for the

Department of Defense (DOD) and US security and interests.

It uses National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Military

Strategy (NMS) documents and other strategic-level defense

guidance to link the requirement for airlift to national security.

USAF Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) studies on future force

structure requirements contributed insights on this topic and

aided in establishing potential requirements for unmanned

airlift vehicles (UALV) for the US Air Force. This analysis provided UAV requirements and a foundation for using UALVs as

a means to satisfy airlift requirements. The second element investigates the issue of UALV technological feasibility. It assesses

current and emerging technologies to determine if, when, and

under what conditions it will be possible to develop a prototype

UAV. Finally, the author addresses the question of financial

capability by reviewing the various costs and UAV acquisition

processes to determine the fiscal advantages and disadvantages

of UALV development.

In using these guidelines, the following three questions need

to be answered:

1. What operational requirements justify unmanned airlifters?

2. Are current and emerging technologies likely to meet

these potential operational requirements?

3. Are the concepts cost-effective?

Definitions

Some terms require definition. A UAV is “a powered, aerial vehicle that does not carry a human operator, uses aerodynamic

forces to provide vehicle lift, can fly autonomously or be piloted

2

CADRE PAPER
remotely, can be expendable or recoverable, and can carry a

lethal or non-lethal payload.”2 The terms unmanned transport

(UT) and unmanned airlift (UA) are used interchangeably to denote the aerial movement of cargo, supplies, and equipment without a human operator aboard. Finally, several times throughout

this paper the following designate specific periods of the future:

short-term, 2002–2012; midterm, 2012–2022; and long-term,

2022–2032. 

Background and Significance of the Problem

UAVs provide significant advantages over manned aircraft

platforms in some mission areas. Given the long-term strategic

airlift shortfall experienced by the DOD, the development of an

unmanned airlift vehicle may provide a viable solution within

existing funding levels. According to the Secretary of Defense’s

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Roadmap 2000–2025 (hereafter called

UAV Roadmap), the document used to assist the DOD in developing a long-term strategy for UAV development between 2000

and 2025, UAVs are force multipliers that can increase unit effectiveness in an era of decreasing force size.3 The author seeks

to determine if this statement is valid for the airlift mission. 

The impetus for the UALV concept originates in USAF scientific studies advocating innovative possibilities for future missions and roles for UAVs in general—of unmanned transport,

in particular.4 When the SAB published these studies six-toseven years ago, its evaluation of UT placed that capability in

the realm of distant possibility. The studies did not elaborate

on requirements for the vehicles nor did they discuss financial

considerations. The SAB’s primary focus was on the technological aspects of future transport concepts, but even that information was incomplete. 

A paper titled New World Vistas contained several volumes

specifically investigating widespread UAV applicability to meet

future Air Force roles and missions. The panel that wrote the

volume on mobility used five criteria to evaluate emerging

technologies applicable to improving the air mobility mission.

The criteria required the panel to (1) select areas of rapidly

changing technology applicable to the mobility mission, (2)

identify the most revolutionary technologies, (3) predict the

3

MANSKE
impact on affordability of the mobility mission, (4) identify

which technologies can be obtained by capitalizing on commercial development, and (5) identify uniquely military technologies.5 Their report identified 19 mission areas in which future technologies could influence mobility applications. 

The panel prioritized the list of missions using another set of

evaluative criteria and concluded that UT ranked 12th of 18 on

the list.6 They maintained that because “flight personnel are expensive and vulnerable” aboard large, less maneuverable, airlift

aircraft the risk to these personnel could be reduced through use

of UA.7 The panel also maintained that “major technology advances in reliability are required in all aircraft systems, particularly controls” before further studies are conducted.8 The relatively low ranking UT received from the panel indicated that

contemporary technology seven years ago was not sufficiently

mature to place it higher on the list. But, UAVs are now being developed, produced, and funded with unprecedented growth. 

Why Do We Have Unmanned Aerial Vehicles?

The United States considered UAVs a practical alternative to

manned reconnaissance flight after Francis Gary Powers’ U-2

was shot down over the Soviet Union in 1960.9 The downing of

another U-2 during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 deepened

American resolve to develop unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Therein lies the difficulty in determining operational requirements for unmanned airlift roles

and missions. The need to mitigate risk to accomplish an important national mission drove the requirement to develop unmanned intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)

platforms. Risk, however, is not as significant a criterion in air

transport missions as it is in other airpower roles. As with all

Air Force missions, risk management procedures will dictate

acceptable levels of risk. If one is to make a case for unmanned

flight operations, the reasons must be sound before the DOD

will provide funding.

UAVs have been popular instruments of war for the last 15

years. Their popularity results primarily in the avoidance of

risk their use provides while doing so at a fraction of the cost

of manned aircraft. Advances in unmanned technology systems

4

CADRE PAPER
and capabilities have aided this process. UAV capabilities have

grown so much in the last few years that new requirements for

UAVs have led to the development of advanced capabilities

that were previously thought unattainable.10 In many ways,

rapid advancements in UAV technologies created by this circular process make for “technologically ambitious” UAV programs that also turn out to be very affordable.11 

Assumptions

The author makes two assumptions in this paper.

1. No passengers will be carried on unmanned airlifters. If

UALVs become a reality, they will likely only carry cargo

until they are proven safe. The idea of carrying passengers in an aircraft with no pilots aboard is fraught with

moral and ethical issues not addressed in this paper. In

the future, when technology matures to a sufficiently

safe level, UALV passenger aircraft may become a reality.

2. The unmanned airlift concepts advocated in this paper will

complement current and future manned systems. For

example, unmanned airlifters could be employed in conjunction with manned airlifters in a formation. Manned airlifters will also perform complex and specialized missions,

which machine logic will not be mature enough to accomplish. Though man may leave the confines of some aircraft,

he is required to operate the complex machinery necessary

for the successful mission accomplishment of existing

UAVs.12 

Preview of the Argument

Chapter 2 covers the long-term strategic airlift shortfall that

unmanned airlift can potentially solve. This highlights the importance of strategic airlift in the execution of national security

and military strategy. Arguably, US strategy cannot be promulgated without adequate strategic airlift in sufficient quantities.

UALVs overcome this airlift shortfall.

Chapter 3 includes the history and development of UAVs, as

well as UAV and UALV operational requirements, with an eye

5

MANSKE
towards developing requirements for unmanned airlift that

currently do not exist. It includes an assessment of current

UAV programs as well as the administration of UAV programs

over the last 15 years.

Chapter 4 deals with the technological feasibility of unmanned

airlift. An evaluation of current, emerging, and conceptual technologies is placed into a context that clarifies the possibility of

turning vision into reality while determining if the technology

necessary for unmanned airlift can meet proposed operational

requirements.

Chapter 5 illustrates the cost-effectiveness of UAVs as a viable

alternative for the nation’s strategic airlift shortfall. This includes

an analysis of costs associated with UAV development and includes manned and unmanned aircraft costs. Secondary costs

factored into the analysis include degraded readiness and low retention rates of quality people. These secondary costs increase

the risk to securing our national interests while simultaneously

placing a burden on our men and women who remain.

Chapter 6 covers the findings of the previous chapters and

their implications for the future of UALVs. 

Notes

Most of the notes for this chapter and the following chapters appear in

shortened form. For full details, see the appropriate entries in the bibliography.

1. Howard, “Military Science in an Age of Peace,” 5.

2. Joint Publication (JP 1-02), Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms, 450.

3. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Roadmap

2000–2025, 13.

4. See the following studies for more in-depth information: USAF SAB,

UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, vol. 1; USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, vol. 2; Fellows et al., “Airlift 2025”; and USAF

SAB, New World Vistas: Mobility Volume.

5. USAF SAB, New World Vistas, A-1.

6. Ibid., 31.

7. Ibid., 19. 

8. Ibid.

9. Ricks and Squeo, “Why the Pentagon Is often Slow to Pursue Promising

New Weapons,” 1. 

10. Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation in the Systems Engineering of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” par. 1.0.

11. Ibid. 

12. Longino, Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Future Armed Conflict

Scenarios, xi; and Chun, Aerospace Power in the Twenty-First Century, 295.

6

CADRE PAPER
Chapter 2

The Strategic Airlift Shortfall

We have learned and must not forget that, from now on, air

transport is an essential of airpower, in fact, of all national

power.

—Gen Henry H. Arnold, US Army Air Forces, 1945 

With the onset of the 1948 Berlin Airlift, US airlift forces

gained new prominence in the eyes of national policy makers

as they sustained a besieged city for nearly a year. Because of

its decisiveness in affecting political opinion, policymakers unreservedly embraced airlift during the Korean War. This war

exposed the inadequacy of the force structure, the logistical

posture of airlift in-theater, and the obstacles that the distance from Korea to the continental United States presented

for airlift. To facilitate an adequate force structure for the war,

Air Force Gen William H. Tunner, in 1950, consolidated control of Air Force airlift, including operations, support, and

maintenance functions. General Tunner’s reorganization optimized airlift’s ability to support rapid troop movements and resupply soldiers actively engaged in combat. However, after the

war, aircraft, missions, and consolidation issues stirred a contentious debate about the best organization for airlift in the

postwar equation.1 Although a major part of the debate revolved around the allocations of the declining military budget,

none of the participants wanted to part with their share of airlift resources. General Tunner and other airlift advocates persuasively argued that airlift had a significant role in the postwar atomic world. Consequently, the airlift fleet underwent an

unprecedented peacetime expansion.2 The Vietnam War further

highlighted the increasing utility of strategic airlift through the

transport of record-breaking tonnages.3 The trend toward greater

requirements continued through the Persian Gulf War to the

present.

Even as political decision makers, military strategists, and

theater commanders relied on strategic airlift to deliver large

7
tonnages in short time spans, the requirements for this capability always exceeded supply. Despite airlift’s higher profile,

lawmakers never allocated enough funding to meet stated national security strategies and objectives. Recent commanders

of America’s airlift forces called for increased acquisitions to

meet those objectives, but requests for more assets received

mixed responses in spite of congressionally mandated studies

calling for more aircraft. 

Statements by former and current United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) commanders highlighted the

importance of and shortfall in strategic airlift. Gen Charles T.

Robertson Jr., former combatant commander, USTRANSCOM,

and commander, USAF Air Mobility Command (AMC), stated in

2000 that “there is no subject talked about more when the warfighting CINCs [combatant commanders] get together . . . than

the shortfall in mobility. No. 1 on their priority list—or in the top

five—is the shortfall in strategic airlift. And we know (there’s a

shortfall) because we’re shortfalling customers every day in

peacetime. . . . Every day in peacetime we’re saying ‘no’ to somebody.”4 Similarly, Gen John W. Handy, the current combatant

commander USTRANSCOM, stated in 2002 that “no one challenges the fact that as a nation, we need as much airlift as we

can get. It’s a self-evident truth.”5 These statements, backed by

comprehensive studies on the issue, characterized the problem. 

When terrorists struck the US homeland on 9/11, the United

States launched a global war against terrorism that started in

Afghanistan. Large numbers of troops and equipment were deployed to the Middle East to conduct military operations. The

secretary of defense immediately tasked military airlift units to

deploy the combat resources necessary to begin those operations. After a few months of extremely high-tempo operations by

airlift units, it became apparent to Air Force leadership that continuous use of airlift aircraft induced accelerated aging of the

fleet. Brig Gen Ted Bowlds, USAF program executive officer for

airlift aircraft, maintained that the operations necessitated the

need for more airlift.6 C-5 and C-17 airlifters transported most of

the equipment that went by air. With regard to the high use rate

of C-17s in the war, Bowlds stated, “Like any weapon system, in

8

CADRE PAPER
times when you’re using them at higher rates than anticipated,

they tend to wear out faster.”7 

Because the war against terrorism is expected to “last as

long as it takes”8 and the administrations’ homeland security

measures are emphasized, the president budgeted an unprecedented $379 billion for defense programs in fiscal year (FY)

2003.9 Thus, it is important for the DOD and the Air Force to

consider long-term alternatives for increasing airlift capacity

when Congress and the American people seem willing to open

the nation’s pocketbook for national defense. 

After 9/11, the Pentagon initiated a comprehensive review of

its mobility requirements that reflected the demands on the

defense transportation system. The DOD review used data

based on an updated operational scenario described in the

September 2001 release of the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). The previous scenario assumed concurrent conflicts in Southwest Asia and on the Korean peninsula,

otherwise known as a two major theater war (MTW) scenario.

This scenario taxed airlift forces to the extent that deploying

forces were put at risk.10

The 2001 QDR and the FY04–09 Defense Planning Guidance

(DPG) established a new defense planning construct that

steered us away from the older MTW strategy and resulted in

new airlift requirements to meet the threat. The DPG calls for

the support of what has come to be known as the 1-4-2-1

strategy for future support operations around the world:

• The first “1” mandates a priority focus on homeland security

(HLS) that includes the use of outsize capable assets (C-5s

and C-17s) to be withheld for HLS mission requirements.

This is an additive capability since Mobility Requirements

Study 2005 (MRS-05) and the events of 9/11.

• The “4” in the DPG construct mandates concurrent support

to deter forward (DF) in four separate geographic regions

around the globe. Those four regions may be in support of

humanitarian relief, disaster support, noncombat evacuation operations, or armed conflict. This multitheater, concurrent demand in addition to HLS is significant.

9

MANSKE
• The “2” is likened to the 2-MTW sequential environment

outlined in MRS-05 with a subtle distinction. The United

States is now called on to “swiftly defeat the effort” of an

adversary in two major regional theaters. Times of overlap

and concurrency have yet to be defined as are the types of

“effort” that must be defeated.

• The last “1” in the DPG mandates “winning decisively” one

of the two efforts above while maintaining support to

other theaters and homeland defense.11

In assessing the magnitude of the problem, General Robertson told Congress in 2001 that the shortage of sufficient airlift

assets constituted a high risk in terms of accomplishing vital

national and military strategy objectives. This risk was assessed

in the MRS-05 by evaluating “the ability of US/coalition forces

to achieve measurable war-fighting objectives.”12 The MRS-05

examined airlift requirements from top to bottom, planned for

intertheater and intratheater strategic airlift capability, and investigated continental United States airlift requirements.13

Chapter 3 examines these assessments.

One proposal to the airlift shortfall increased the number of

Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) participants. However, another

report concluded that “there are legal and practical limitations

on the military’s use of the voluntary CRAF and its civilian

crews in hazardous conditions and on the kinds of military

material it can carry.”14 These restrictions fueled debate over a

satisfactory solution to the nation’s airlift shortfall. It appeared that by contracting more CRAF carriers, the problem

diminished. However, the CRAF does not possess the required

specialized airlifters for transport into potentially hostile

areas. Yet, “without CRAF, it would cost the American taxpayer over $50B [billion] to procure, and $1-3B annually to

operate, an equivalent-sized force in the organic fleet.”15 While

CRAF comprises an important component of US airlift capability, without a sufficient organic airlift fleet to move oversized

and outsized cargo, as well as the capability to transport it far

closer to hostilities than CRAF aircraft are able, the shortfall

compromises military posture. Despite the Air Force’s purchase of 60 more C-17s, bringing the total acquisition closer

10

CADRE PAPER
to MRS-05 required levels, the United States still experienced

a strategic airlift shortfall. The secretary of defense instituted

a new national strategy dispensing with the former two MTW

scenarios, substituting a much broader capabilities-based approach, and requiring “planning for a wider range of contingencies.”16 This policy suggested that the number of airlifters

on order failed to meet operational requirements and the DOD

lacked the funding or the willingness to procure significant

airlift capability to meet requirements. A capabilities-based

airlift force built for broad, unknown, and potentially hostile

situations makes implementing the strategy a difficult, costly,

and risky proposition. The concept of cost effectively increasing airlift capability, with significantly reduced risks and incorporating advances in unmanned aircraft technology, offers

a new vision for unmanned air transport.

Notes

1. Owen, “The Rise of Global Airlift In the United States Air Force

1919–1977,” 97. Robert C. Owen, PhD, is chair of the Department of Aeronautical Science, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach,

Florida.

2. Ibid., 101. 

3. Hutcheson, Air Mobility, 14. 

4. Lowe, “Military Not Able to Meet Airlift Requirement for War,” 12. 

5. Levins, “Transportation Command’s Chief Emphasizes the Need for

More C-17 Cargo Planes,” 9.

6. “With C-17 Negotiations Final, Air Force Mulls Expanding New Contract,” 1. 

7. Ibid.

8. George W. Bush, “Statement of the president, 15 September 2001,”

Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents 37, no. 38 (24 September

2001): 1320.

9. DOD, “President Announces Details of Wartime Defense Budget.” 

10. DOD, QDR Report, September 30, 2001. 

11. Defense LINK News, Defense Planning Guidance: Planning Construct,

3. 

12. Tirpak, “The Airlift Shortfall Deepens,” 58.

13. Office of the Joint Staff, MRS-05 (U), 6. (Secret) Information extracted

is unclassified.

14. Owen and Fogle, “Air Mobility Command and the Objective Force,”

15.

15. Senate, Statement of Gen Charles T. Robertson, Jr. USAF on Strategic and Tactical Lift in the 21st Century: Hearings before the Subcommittee on

11

MANSKE
Seapower of the Committee On Armed Services, 13. Hearing examined

strategic and tactical lift requirements versus capabilities.

16. Office of the Secretary of Defense, QDR, 61.

12

CADRE PAPER
Chapter 3

Operational Requirements

In view of the information [General Accounting Office] GAO

developed and DOD’s position, the Congress should scrutinize proposed manned aircraft developments to assure that

the DOD gives adequate consideration to the use of the remotely piloted vehicle technology for some missions. While

DOD is making some use of the technology, there is a need

to assure that its use is maximized where suited to save

lives and money.

—General Accounting Office, 1981

The DOD designated the AMC as lead command in the airlift program with responsibility for ensuring that airlift forces

are trained and equipped to support national goals, objectives,

and interests. AMC outlines its approach to meeting this responsibility in the 2002 Air Mobility Strategic Plan. The executive summary of the strategic plan describes the fundamental

role that airlift forces play in US national security through

their conduct of operations other than war, power projection,

and force protection.1 In the plan, AMC cautioned that more

effort must be expended to increase airlift capacity “to meet future capability requirements.”2 The fundamental questions are

how did airlift become such an important component of US security and where does the strategic guidance originate for outlining airlift requirements?

A top-down survey provides some answers to why air mobility’s critical role in achieving national objectives within a

fast-moving global environment drives a new generation of airlift requirements. The survey examined UAV capabilities to

demonstrate the increasing reliance on UAVs to fulfill a growing

list of unified combatant commander missions. A notional

UALV emerged from the amalgamation of airlift requirements

and needs with the growing list of UAV capabilities. Possible

scenarios emerge for the use of unmanned airlift vehicles in

support of national strategy.

13
Strategic Document Review

US national strategic-level guidance originates with the president’s NSS. This provides the basis for the chairman of the Joint

Chiefs of Staff’s (CJCS) NMS. Strategic airlift forces provide an

important role in this policy. As a force operating around the

world and around the clock, strategic airlift demonstrates US resolve and presence through the rapid aerial delivery of combat

troops and equipment.

This paper uses examples from the 2000 NSS to examine the

viability of UALVs to bolster air mobility capabilities. The elements of this strategy include shaping the international environment, responding to threats and crises, and preparing for an uncertain future. Responding to threats and crises with airlift

requires an air transport force capable of global mobility and

freedom of action. To prepare for an uncertain future, the United

States must transform capabilities, technologies, and organizations to meet tomorrow’s challenges. 

National Security Strategy

The NSS provides high-level guidance leading to the accomplishment of national objectives. It requires an investment in

focused science and technology efforts, concept development,

and experimentation.3 

The significance of strategic airlift becomes apparent: “Strategic mobility is critical to our ability to augment forces already

present in the [sic] region with the projection of additional forces

for domestic and international crisis response. This agility in response is key to successful American leadership and engagement.”4 Without a robust strategic airlift fleet, the United States

lacks the credibility to fulfill commitments in support of its interests.

National Military Strategy

Similar in organization to the NSS, the NMS provides guidance

from the CJCS in conjunction with the Joint Chiefs of Staff

(JCS) and unified combatant commanders for the strategic direction of the services.5 The NMS outlines the US national military objectives, the international strategic environment, and how

14

CADRE PAPER
US military capabilities fulfill the strategy to achieve those objectives.6 The NMS objectives parallel those in the NSS but are

narrower in scope and focus specifically on military matters.

The NMS defines airlift’s critical role as an integral part of the

CJCS strategy to support the NSS.

The NMS articulates three distinct objectives: to shape, respond, and prepare now for an uncertain future. For strategic

airlift, the “respond” objective means responding “to crises

across the full range of military operations, from humanitarian

assistance to fighting and winning MTWs and conducting two

nearly simultaneous smaller-scale contingencies.”7 Dire implications occur for the security of the nation by failing to meet that

requirement. Although mandated to prepare for two nearly simultaneous MTWs by the NMS, the DOD never possessed the

strategic airlift required to meet this goal. Col Michael Fricano,

chief, AMC Studies and Analysis Division, who provided the

Joint Staff data for consideration in the MRS-05, stated that “US

organic airlift forces are sized to accommodate only one MTW at

this time.”8 As an international power with global interests, US

military forces must deter and defeat cross-border aggression

around the globe. A failure to pursue this policy “would signal to

key allies our inability to help defend mutual interests, thus

weakening our alliances and coalitions.”9 Strategic airlift forces

provide such capabilities while strengthening the coalition ties

deemed valuable to protecting US national interests. 

United States Transportation

Command Strategic Guidance

USTRANSCOM, the functional unified command and the parent command to AMC, manages the Defense Transportation System. It generates operational requirements pertaining to its mission as the single-source defense transportation provider. 

Accordingly, the USTRANSCOM strategic guidance document

plays a vital role in military strategy execution.10 Like the NSS

and NMS, the USTRANSCOM strategic guidance identifies a

strategy similar to the “shape, respond and prepare now for an

uncertain future” paradigm mentioned previously. To shape

the environment, it provides properly trained mobility forces,

then responds with these forces to transport mission-essential

15

MANSKE
personnel and equipment where needed. It prepares for an uncertain future of securing US technological superiority in selected

war-fighting capabilities through an enterprising modernization

program. The attainment of these goals supports Secretary of

Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s vision of achieving defense transformation for twenty-first century military forces.11 

USTRANSCOM visualizes a future environment with the capabilities necessary to fulfill guidance contained in the NSS,

the NMS, and its own strategic directive. It promotes an explicit requirement for “robust, effective, and survivable strategic lift” as part of its military strategy for the twenty-first century.12 But it acknowledged difficulties in fulfilling national

goals and objectives of future military forces when it stated,

“The challenge is to exploit future technological advances,

foresee the obsolescence of current systems, and plan for their

replacement.”13 This challenge forms the basis for this paper. 

A Core Competency: Rapid Global Mobility

The Air Force professes expertise in six core competencies:

air and space superiority, precision engagement, rapid global

mobility, information superiority, global attack, and agile combat support. Of the six, rapid global mobility involves the movement of troops and equipment required to accomplish the objectives of the national strategy. To accomplish these airlift

requirements, the United States must possess sufficient capability to overcome the declining access to overseas bases that

has occurred over the last decade. 

The United States must possess the economic strength to finance that capability. Because core competencies define the

USAF’s greatest attributes, sufficient airlift forces become imperative for the application of airpower. Defining what constitutes sufficient continues to be difficult. 

Airlift Requirements

For more than 20 years, the United States attempted to

quantify its airlift needs. The secretary of defense published

the Congressionally Mandated Mobility Study in 1981, the first

of several assessments. It set a strategic airlift objective for the

16

CADRE PAPER
transport of 66 “million ton miles per day” (MTM/D) of cargo

to meet the requirements of the unified commanders in addition to published national security and military strategies. The

DOD published the Mobility Requirements Study (MRS) in 1992

after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It set an objective of 57

MTM/D resulting from the NSS mandate to fight two MTWs. In

1995, the DOD published the Mobility Requirements Study Bottom Up Review Update (MRS BURU) reducing the airlift requirement to 49.7 MTM/D. This study accounted for the contributions of organic airlift, previously unconsidered in the

MRS, and contracted commercial aircraft known as the CRAF

fulfillment. The MRS BURU designated a small portion of the

airlift requirement (approximately 20.7 MTM/D) for CRAF while

the balance was made the responsibility of the USAF.14 

The most recent MRS, known as MRS-05, forecast airlift requirements for the year 2005. As a baseline for the study, the

DOD established a scenario in which airlifters would transport

combat forces to fight and win two MTWs occurring nearly

simultaneously.15 The MRS-05 attempted to account for some

of the factors unconsidered in previous mobility studies by including them in its assumptions. These factors included requirements such as intratheater airlift and special airlift missions flown in excess of those supporting the two MTW

scenarios. These refinements approximated actual airlift operations more precisely than previous studies.16 

The MRS-05 examined other significant factors previously unconsidered that affected airlift operations. Figure 1 depicts the

airlift requirements derived from the MRS-05 and warrants some

explanation. As a minimum, the MRS-05 required 51.1 MTM/D

to prosecute the intratheater movement of equipment from

one MTW to another. It required 1.6 MTM/D to support special

operations, 0.9 MTM/D to support theater combatant commander requirements and the transport of missile defenses to a

combat theater, and 0.9 MTM/D to support theaters not engaged

in combat but nonetheless requiring airlift support. This increased the total requirement to 54.5 MTM/D, the established

minimum necessary to transport wartime equipment and troops

between two theaters of war.

17

MANSKE
18

CADRE PAPER

Additionally, under other scenarios, MRS-05 predicted airlift

requirements as high as 67.0 MTM/D.17 The CRAF can feasibly

handle 20.5 MTM/D of the requirement, while AMC organic

airlift can transport approximately 19.4 MTM/D.18 Estimates

in 2002 set the organic capability at 24.7 MTM/D, thus increasing the combined USAF and CRAF capability to 45.2 MTM/

D.19 Based on a requirement of 54.5 MTM/D, this resulted in

a 9.3 MTM/D capability gap, which is 17.1 percent short of required capability. Altogether, these requirements exceeded the

capability of US airlift.20

Capability Shortfall

This continuing capability gap suggests two things. First, feasible solutions are required to close the gap. If defense planners

established realistic assumptions regarding future defense

scenarios, capabilities would match requirements. Second, the

strategy should reflect the reality that this requirement may be

unattainable. Stretching US airlift forces beyond their limits will

result in eventual failure to support requirements in accommodation of the strategy. The General Accounting Office (GAO), the

Figure 1. MRS-05 airlift requirements (Adapted from: Office of the Joint Staff,

Mobility Requirements Study 2005 Executive Summary [Washington, D.C.:

Deputy Director for Power, Projection, and Sustainment, December 2000], 5.)

54.5

48.31

54.5

53.6

52.7

51.1

Other

CINC

Supporting

OPS

Special

OPS

Concurrent Missions with

MTW Halt Phase(s)

IntraTheater

2 MTW

Strat

1The 48.3 MTM/D figure represents a fleet of 120 C-17s and assumes a 65 percent mission capability rate

for the C-5 and a CRAF contribution of 20.5 MTM/D. MRS-05 did not account for C-141 aircraft capability due

to the airlifters’ programmed retirement in 2006.
independent auditing arm of Congress, addressed the implications of ignoring the shortfall. Realistically, though, the DOD will

reduce the gap by increasing capability.

In a 2000 study on air transport capability, the GAO validated what Air Force officials were saying for some time about

the state of the airlift fleet.21 The study maintained the shortfall was not due solely to a lack of capability but to additional

factors as well. For instance, from FY97–99, only 55 percent of

the C-5 fleet, on average, maintained mission readiness.22 This

implied that merely possessing airlift capacity alone did not

guarantee its availability for a crisis or contingency. Other

variables affect the mission capability rate: the lack of available

aircraft spare parts for the airlift fleet, the amount of time spent

undergoing depot maintenance, and the reduction of aircraft

resulting from initially procuring only half as many C-17s as retiring C-141s.23 Cumulatively, the significance of these variables

suggests the existing airlift force structure cannot support the

NSS and NMS. As the airlift fleet ages, its capability continues

to decrease, further fueling the heightened demand for airlift.

Table 1 depicts the AMC airlift aircraft mission capability rates

as of 2000.

Table 1. AMC airlift aircraft mission capability rates

19

MANSKE

Mission Capable Rates (percent)

Aircraft

Type

AMC Standard

Wartime Rates

FY97–99 Average*

Peacetime Rates

FY00 Average

Peacetime Rates

C-541 75.5 55 53

C-171 87.5 66 63

C-141 80.5 61 68

*Average mission capable rates for the C-5 were based on rates for FY97–99. Average mission capable rates for the C-141 and C-17 were based on fourth quarter FY99 data because these aircraft

are in transition to retirement, in the case of the C-141, and increased procurement in the case of

the C-17.These rates were computed by dividing the number of aircraft mission capable by the total

number of primary mission aircraft.

Adapted from: GAO, Defense Capabilities and Management Division, Updated Readiness Status of U.S. Air

Transport Capability, GAO Report GAO-01-495R (Washington, D.C.: GAO, 16 March 2001), 10, http://www.

aviationtoday.com/reports/air0327.pdf.
The below-standard peacetime rates depicted above, combined

with a general shortage of capability, makes it difficult for AMC to

fulfill its requirements. Buying more aircraft, in this case C-17s,

alleviates the shortfall in the short-term. 

Capability Solutions

The extent of the shortfall capability gap depends on the release of a new mobility requirements study. Emerging homeland

security requirements further exacerbated the airlift shortage,

while the global war on terrorism also had an adverse effect on

the shortage.24 The Joint Staff did not account for either of these

factors in the MRS-05 because they had not occurred. But they

remain open-ended commitments that airlift forces must support. Air mobility must develop long-term solutions.25

While the DOD looked at some long-term options to resolve

the airlift shortfall, the GAO advanced four of its own in a

2000 audit. They were as follows:

1. Do not change current plans and accept associated risks.

2. Decrease requirements by adjusting war plans to allow

more time for deploying forces into theater or planning for

less than two nearly simultaneous major theater wars.

3. Reduce peacetime operational commitments, thereby limiting the number of airlift . . . flights to the level commensurate with sustaining . . . mission capable standards.

4. Prioritize funding for airlift . . . operations and modernization to . . . levels commensurate with achieving and sustaining the desired capability levels.26

The dynamic nature of the strategic environment and US unwillingness to accept unnecessary risk makes option one unrealistic in comparison to options two and four. Option three,

like option one, proved to be unrealistic, especially in light of

the events that have occurred since 9/11. The QDR implemented

option two. The DOD and the Air Force, through additional C-17

acquisition and C-5 modernization, pursued option four at

great expense.

20

CADRE PAPER
The quantification of necessary requirements to satisfy the

seemingly endless number of operations tasked for airlift forces

over the last decade became difficult.27 The United States expects

to become involved in a rising number of military operations

other than war, including small-scale contingencies that would

call for increased midterm airlift capability. 

Existing capabilities fall short of meeting requirements for

wartime air transportation. If airlift provides the “foundation of

US national security at the strategic level,” the DOD must adequately fund it.28 In lieu of adequate funding, the DOD must

adopt cost-effective measures to increase capability and meet the

demands and requirements of the unified combatant commanders and the national security and military strategies. By

combining the need for increased airlift capacity with the expansion of unmanned aircraft research in new roles and missions for

UAVs, unmanned airlift may yield a solution for closing the airlift capability gap. Examining the UAV requirements process illuminates this investigation. 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Requirements

Until recently, UAV requirements grew out of a demand for

persistent, systematic ISR at lower risk to aircraft operators.

The demand for UAV systems came primarily from defense

users. This demand, in turn, drove requirements and the acquisition of UAV systems. Yet, how does demand for UAVs become a requirement? A researcher who authored a study on

the DOD UAV requirements described the process as follows: 

Requirements for UAV system development come directly in the form of

an operational requirements document . . . generated by a council [Joint

Requirements Oversight Council] that represents all four branches of the

armed services: Army, Air Force, Navy, [and] Marine Corps. This document states the overall capabilities required of the system, system performance, mission requirements, logistics for the system, human-system

interaction requirements, and inventory objectives. . . . Once the requirements have been established and design standards are provided, the UAV

system design [is] initiated. . . . The system requirements are used to drive

the systems’ design early in the design process to maintain traceability

back to the original customers’ needs.29

21

MANSKE
This process relies on input from potential users and developed

mission needs statement.30 The acquisition authority processes

and approves a reconciled and consolidated input to avoid duplication and then funds UAV production. Figure 2 provides an

illustration of the requirements-generation process.31 

22

CADRE PAPER

UAV Requirements

Needs

UAV Mission Needs

Statements

User Needs

Requirements

Reconciliation

Consolidation

Requirements

Reconciliation

Consolidation

Funding(s)

UAV Program

Figure 2. Requirements generation and UAV program development

process (Reprinted from: R. Barry Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation in the Systems Engineering of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” Systems Engineering Project, University of Maryland, A. James Clark, School of Engineering, Fall 1998, http://www.glue.umd.edu/~bwalden/project.html.)

Identifying Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Requirements

Integrated priority lists (IPL) identify UAV requirements within

the DOD. Every year, each unified combatant commander

prioritizes the war-fighting capability shortfalls of their respective theater. According to the 2001 UAV Roadmap, “of the 146 requirements submitted in the combined 1999 IPL for funding in

the FY02–07 Future Years Defense Plan, 57 [39 percent] needed

capabilities that have previously been associated in some form [a

flight demonstration, a technical study, etc.] with UAVs, i.e., requirements that could potentially be filled by using UAVs.”32

Technology provides the primary impetus behind UAV requirements generation.33 UAV users want them to go “farther, faster,

and do more things for low-cost and simplicity.”34 Using available

and relevant technologies simplifies the UAV system yet requires

a major investment.35 Technology requires a push to meet users’

requirements; however, underestimation of the technological
challenges in developing UAV systems becomes a major problem.

Technology limitations withstanding, the USAF embarked on a

path toward developing and building UCAVs. This developmental methodology makes the most of the risk-eliminating characteristics inherent with UAVs. 

As recently as five years ago, many in the defense industry

and Congress could not envision unmanned combat systems

development and testing continuing for at least a decade into

the twenty-first century. Several factors changed that mentality.

First, Operation Allied Force confirmed the assumption that unmanned combat aircraft could be practical alternatives to

manned fighters after Serbian air defenses shot down an F-117

stealth fighter. In addition, the loss of two Predator unmanned

reconnaissance aircraft during the campaign punctuated the

need for unmanned systems that could actively defend themselves. Second, advances in robotics, electronics, and miniaturization fueled renewed interest in the possibility of sending

armed unmanned combat aircraft into hostilities where risk is

unknown or potentially high. Third, Congress felt compelled to

respond to increased awareness by their constituents for reduced combat casualties as a result of advances in precision

weaponry over the last 15 years. The response from Congress

came in the form of initiatives in the FY01 Defense Authorization Bill that steeply increased previously inadequate funding

for research and development of unmanned combat systems. 

The JCS reviewed requirements for UAV programs in 1984.

They determined at that time that sensors, electronics, and vehicle design had sufficiently matured to solve the technical problems plaguing previous efforts.36 The JCS supported a vision for

the advancement of UAV concepts that fueled renewed interest

in previously neglected programs. Investments made throughout

the 1980s paid dividends during Operation Desert Storm in

which UAVs proved they could fill substantial gaps in intelligence. For instance, in its final report on Operation Desert

Storm, the DOD noted that “during one mission, a Pioneer

[UAV] located three Iraqi artillery battalions, three free-rocketover-ground launch sites and an antitank battalion . . . [Pioneers] proved excellent at providing an immediately responsive

23

MANSKE
intelligence capability.”37 Today, Air Force operations routinely

use UAVs. 

Many considerations contributed to the decision to fulfill

operational requirements with a UAV. Therefore, deciding

whether to fulfill a requirement with UAVs, manned aircraft, or

both requires careful consideration of several factors. These include “the scenarios to be encountered, the missions and tasks

to accomplish, the alternatives, the relative risks, the relative

costs of the tasks and the maturity of the technologies.”38 Each

factor weighed against the operational requirement ensures

UAVs are the right tool. According to the opinion of the USAF

SAB, the right combination of manned and unmanned aircraft

platforms emerges after operational validation and use of the aircraft and the associated concepts of operation.39 It took time to

alter an institutional outlook once opposed to replacing pilots

with UAVs. A similar acculturation process must take place for

unmanned airlift to be accepted and proven feasible. 

Determining Requirements

for Unmanned Airlift Vehicles

Requirements for unmanned airlift currently do not exist.

However, given analysis of the evidence presented herein, it is

possible to develop them. Previous examples of reconnaissance UAV and UCAV development are indicative of the evolutionary paths that must be forged to encourage requirements

development. For their development to take root, UALVs must

prove feasible. Feasibility requires an objective determination

of what is technologically possible, which is the topic of the

next chapter. Therefore, a legitimate need and justification for

UALVs must exist before proceeding. 

A 1981 GAO report reflected on the lack of adequate UAV requirements despite the ongoing development of a UAV program when it stated, “The Air Force had an advanced Remotely

Piloted Vehicle (RPV) program, but its continuation was not

approved by the Congress for fiscal year 1980. We [the GAO]

were informed by DOD that the reason the program was canceled was because the Air Force could not come up with the

necessary requirements documentation [emphasis added] to

24

CADRE PAPER
support further development of the program. The program was

at the point in its development cycle where a need or a user

had to be identified. None were forthcoming, so the program

was terminated.”40 Therefore, a potential user must submit a

declared and supported operational requirement for unmanned airlift, to proceed past conceptualization. 

Furthermore, for UALVs to be viable candidates for the airlift mission, they must have roughly equivalent capabilities to

manned airlifters. Accordingly, UALVs must demonstrate the

ability to compete with other systems attempting to meet the

same requirement.41 However, UALVs “will be unable to compete successfully as a system because no RPV [UALV] exists

that can be used for comparative purposes.”42 Thus, an interesting paradox develops for UALVs and other emerging unmanned

aircraft roles. How does one support an emerging UALV requirement if a prototype does not exist or cannot be built and

tested?43 If UALVs existed and proved themselves feasible, airlift customers might find them particularly useful. 

In this vein, Dr. Robert Owen, a retired Air Force officer with

wide knowledge of airlift history, hints at the possibility of future aircraft concepts through support to the Army’s mission.

In one article he wrote, “To support the Army’s future Objective Force, AMC and the Air Force are looking at other systems

to improve their ability to deliver and support land forces. At

the high end of the spectrum, AMC considered an advanced

theater transport,” an airlifter concept currently being studied

by Boeing Phantom Works.44 Dr. Owen maintains that the

Boeing advanced theater transport (ATT) concept is ideal because it would permit the delivery and offload of cargo and

equipment to more locations than is now possible.45 Converting the vehicle to an unmanned platform during development may be advantageous to the Air Force.

Thus far, unmanned airlift has been characterized as a

means to close the airlift capability gap, but it also helps in the

Air Force shortfall of pilots. 

Insufficient Aircrews

The DOD’s UAV Roadmap IPL analysis concluded that future UAVs should address the shortfall of sufficient aircrews.46

25

MANSKE
While the Air Force invests millions of dollars to train pilots

because of a pilot shortage, this analysis served to highlight

the point that this money could be invested in unmanned aircraft research and eventually the unmanned aircraft. In time,

this would reduce Air Force pilot requirements. Insufficient

aircrew, as described here, refers to one of two things: (1) the

limitations of human physiology that hamper complete use of

the air and space environment and (2) not retaining adequate

numbers of pilots to operate manned airlift platforms. This

section focuses on the latter. 

Mobility pilot retention difficulties over the last few years

demonstrate the severity of the aircrew shortfall problem. According to a point paper on mobility pilot retention, AMC leads

all USAF major commands in severance rates of eligible pilots,

posting an 81 percent severance rate through spring 2001.47

Unmanned airlift can potentially alleviate this problem without

interruption of the conduct of airlift missions through two possible solutions: (1) increase the number of personnel required for

the kind of strategy being pursued, which may reduce the length

of time personnel are deployed, and (2) increase airlift capacity

without significantly increasing the number of personnel required to operate the additional lift. Considering that the economy rises and falls in cycles but the commitment of personnel to

the NSS remains static, an unmanned airlift platform which increases capacity yet does not significantly increase personnel requirements may be a sound solution. 

Summary

National strategic documents such as the NSS and NMS reflect the important role airlift plays in supporting national strategies. However, a lack of capability to match requirements calls

into question their importance. Despite studies setting wartime

airlift requirements at unattainable levels, USAF airlift forces always attempted to fulfill them. Fortunately, since World War II,

the United States never responded to two MTWs or other operations matching that scale. If so, mobility requirements studies

predict moderate levels of risk to forces responding to the crises.

Because AMC airlifters aged faster than programmed after

the war on terrorism began in Afghanistan in 2001, the DOD

26

CADRE PAPER
called for additional airlift capacity. Lawmakers responded by

funding additional C-17s while considering upgrades to portions of the C-5 fleet. These expensive initiatives could put a

severe drain on the defense budget. Cost-efficient alternatives

to expensive manned airlift that match capability requirements should be closely studied and proposals forwarded. 

Operational requirements do not exist for unmanned airlift.

Unmanned airlift must demonstrate the potential to perform

the airlift mission as well as, or better than, manned airlifters

before it is given serious consideration for augmentation of the

manned fleet. The DOD has identified several types of missions as ideal candidates for fulfillment by UAVs, and the list

grows. The possibility exists, based on wartime airlift shortages and advances in UAV technology, that unmanned airlifters could some day fulfill these requirements. However, the

advantages must outweigh the disadvantages, and the technology must exist or emerge sufficiently to invest the necessary research funding for them.

Notes

1. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary.

2. Ibid. 

3. White House Office, A National Security Strategy for a Global Age, 1.

4. Ibid., 20. 

5. JCS, National Military Strategy of the United States of America: Shape,

Respond, Prepare Now, 1.

6. Ibid., 5. 

7. Ibid., 15. 

8. Col Michael Fricano (chief, AMC Studies and Analysis Division), interview by the author, 1 March 2002. 

9. Ibid. 

10. USTRANSCOM, “Strategic Guidance FY 2002,” 3.

11. Ibid., 4.

12. Ibid., 5. 

13. Ibid. 

14. GAO, Military Readiness: Air Transport Capability Falls Short of Requirements, 27. “Million ton miles per day” (MTM/D) is a measure of airlift

capacity that AMC computes using a formula that is the product of the mission aircraft’s available hours per day, the nautical miles per hour, the expected average load, and a factor that accounts for returning empty, and divides this number by a million miles. It represents the fully mobilized

27

MANSKE
wartime capability of all cargo airlift, including active duty, Air National

Guard, Air Force Reserve, and civilian aircraft (Ibid., 9).

15. Office of the Joint Staff, MRS-05 Executive Summary, 6.

16. Ibid., 4.

17. Ibid. 

18. GAO, Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U.S. Air Transport Capability, 11–12. The 19.4 MTM/D figure is based upon the projected

military wartime surge capability of the C-5, C-17, and KC-10 only. The figure does not take into account the additive projected wartime surge capability of the C-141, 4.0 MTM/D, due to the fact MRS-05 did not; however, it

does account for the KC-10 additive capability of 3.0 MTM/D since MRS-05

did account for its limited cargo contributions.

19. Ibid., 12; and AMC Studies and Analysis Division, in discussion with

the author, June 2002. As of June 2002, combined CRAF and AMC organic

airlift capability was 45.2 MTM/D. The increased capability resulted from

the addition of C-17s coming off the assembly line. AMC’s purchase of 60

additional C-17s beyond the 120 previously contracted added another 6.7

MTM/D for a forecasted total of 51.9 MTM/D. This number still falls short

of the 54.5 called for in MRS-05.

20. AMC Studies and Analysis Division, in discussion with the author,

March 2002. 

21. GAO, Air Transport Capability Falls Short of Requirements, 50. 

22. Ibid., 5.

23. Ibid., 9.

24. Wolfe, “Air Force Seeks to Allay Concerns of DOD, Hill on Multiyear

Financing for C-17s,” 4, and Wall, “Pentagon Scrubs Airlift Needs for Homeland Defense, War Effort,” 62. 

25. Ibid. 

26. GAO, Air Transport Capability Falls Short of Requirements, 18–19. 

27. Ibid. 

28. Air Force Doctrine Document (AFDD) 2-1, Air Warfare, 17.

29. Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation,” par. 1.0.

30. GAO, Report to Congress: DOD’s Use of Remotely Piloted Vehicle Technology Offers Opportunities For Saving Lives And Dollars, 15. The mission

needs statement is a document used within the DOD to justify new major

weapon system acquisition. It identifies the mission and states an operational requirement in terms of the mission or task to be performed rather

than in terms of the capabilities or characteristics of the weapon system.

31. Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation,” par. 1.0.

32. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Roadmap 2000–2025, 13. Hereafter cited as UAV Roadmap in this set of

notes.

33. Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation,” par. 1.0. 

34. Ibid. 

35. Ibid. 

28

CADRE PAPER
36. Kosiak and Heeter, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Current Plans and

Prospects for the Future,” 3.

37. Ibid.

38. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, vol. 1, Summary, par. 2-2.

39. Ibid. 

40. GAO, DOD’s Use of Remotely Piloted Vehicle Technology Offers Opportunities For Saving Lives and Dollars, 12. 

41. Ibid., 15. 

42. Ibid. 

43. This topic is addressed in chapter 5 when UAV acquisition programs

are examined in detail. 

44. Owen and Fogle, “Air Mobility Command and the Objective Force: A

Case for Cooperative Revolution,” 16. 

45. Ibid. 

46. UAV Roadmap, 41. 

47. Capt Angela Slagel, “Point Paper on Mobility Pilot Retention.”

29

MANSKE
Chapter 4

Technological Feasibility

In the development of air power, one has to look ahead and

not backward and figure out what is going to happen, not

too much what has happened. 

—William Mitchell

During the late 1980s and the 1990s, the United States made

enormous advances in unmanned aircraft technology. These advancements proceeded considerably faster than expected, partly

because of the demand for UAVs from commanders. Nevertheless, one must ask if future UAV capabilities will be sufficiently

well-developed to support the airlift mission? This chapter investigates that question. 

A brief history of UAV developments provides the context for

the development and administration of past and current UAV

programs while also serving as a baseline for future unmanned

aircraft development and administration. This chapter examines

several unmanned aircraft measures of merit deemed essential

to the success of unmanned airlift to determine technological feasibility. This examination applies standard DOD UAV feasibility

criteria to each measure of merit to establish a technological

foundation for unmanned airlift. Furthermore, it makes a reasonable prognosis of development for the next 20 years for each

measure of merit to determine unmanned airlift feasibility. The

analysis covers additional UALV considerations pertinent to

the successful development of UALVs. This includes J-UCAS

development practices construed as potential developmental

templates for future UALV development. The chapter concludes

with a breakdown of technological feasibility challenges and a

table that summarizes the evaluation of each measure of merit. 

Brief History of Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Development

Unmanned flight existed in some form or another for centuries. For example, 2,000 years ago in China, kites soared

31
into the sky controlled by a string and essentially functioned

as remotely controlled vehicles.1 More recently US armed

forces achieved unmanned flight with varying degrees of success

in World War I, World War II, the Vietnam War, and Operation

Desert Storm. Different types of UAVs exist, and their diversity

becomes important in terms of the discussion on UALVs.

Classes of vehicles that operate without a human aboard include cruise missiles, guided missiles, drones, RPVs, and UAVs.

RPV (an older, rarely used term) and UAV are interchangeable.

The mission of these vehicles determines if they are expendable

or recoverable. Expendable vehicles used for the purpose of destruction include cruise and guided missiles, though many Airmen consider drones recoverable vehicles. Michael Armitage,

author of Unmanned Aircraft, makes the following succinct distinction between drones and RPVs/ UAVs: “A drone can best be

described as an autonomous and automatic pilotless aircraft. It

will carry at least a mechanism to sustain stable flight, and it will

. . . fly an uncorrected steady heading, in which case its only

utility is likely to be as a target. . . . An RPV, a pilotless aircraft,

transmits mission related data to a remote controller and reacts

to their commands as well as to other control inputs.”2 There are

four categories of recoverable UAVs: tactical reconnaissance vehicles, strategic reconnaissance vehicles, target drones, and UCAVs.3

Wars of the last century witnessed the use of UAVs in varying degrees over the battlefield. During World War I, the US

Army Air Service experimented with an unmanned drone

called the Kettering Bug. It could carry 182 pounds of explosives 40 miles at a speed of 55 miles per hour.4 The army cancelled the program, after completing eight of 36 scheduled

flights, due to a series of failed tests.5 During World War II, the

US Army Air Forces attempted a small number of glide bomb

missions by converting worn-out B-17s and B-24s into primitive cruise missiles.6 During the Vietnam War, the Pentagon

deployed UAVs called Lightning Bugs over North Vietnam and

Southeast China to reduce pilot losses.7 In 1964 the United

States deployed UAVs called Firebees for surveillance and reconnaissance gathering in Vietnam. Although the Firebees enjoyed moderate success and a loss rate of only 4 percent, the

DOD terminated the program a few years after the war ended.8

32

CADRE PAPER
They decided that the Firebee’s mission to perform tactical unmanned reconnaissance no longer existed. 

Beginning with the Persian Gulf War in 1991, the US military used UAVs primarily for reconnaissance, surveillance, and

attacks against fixed ground targets. Operation Desert Storm offered the first successful large-scale use of reconnaissance UAVs.

The Marine Corps operated Pioneer, the principal UAV employed

in Desert Storm. Six Pioneer units deployed with approximately

30 aircraft: three with Marine ground units, one with the Army,

and two on Navy warships. Antiaircraft artillery fire destroyed two

Pioneers and five perished due to noncombat causes.9 

Current Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Programs

The DOD currently operates three operational and three developmental UAV programs. Operational UAVs include Pioneer,

Predator, and Hunter. Developmental UAVs consist of Global

Hawk, Fire Scout, and Shadow 200. Table 2 provides a summarized history of recent UAV programs. 

33

MANSKE

System Manufacturer Lead

Service 

First

Flight 

IOC No.

Built 

No. in

Inventory 

Status

RQ-1/

Predator

General

Atomics

Air

Force

1994 2001 54 15 87 ordered

RQ-2/

Pioneer

Pioneer UAVs

Inc.

Navy 1985 1996 175 25 Sunset

system

BQM-145 Teledyne Ryan Navy 1992 n/a 6 0 Cancelled

1993

RQ-3/

Dark Star

Lockheed

Martin

Air

Force

1996 n/a 3 0 Cancelled

1999

RQ-4/

Global

Hawk

Northrop

Grumman

Air

Force

1998 2005 5 0 In E & MD*

RQ-5/

Hunter

IAI/TRW Army 1991 n/a 72 42 Sunset

system

Outrider Alliant

Tech systems

Army 1997 n/a 19 0 Cancelled

1999

RQ-7/

Shadow

AAI Army 1991 2003 8 0 176 planned

Fire

Scout

Northrop

Grumman

Navy 1999 2003 1 0 75 planned

Table 2. Summary history of recent unmanned aerial vehicle programs

*Engineering and Manufacturing Development

Reprinted from: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Roadmap 2000–2025 (Washington, D.C.: Office of the Secretary of Defense, April 2001), 6, http://www.acq.osd.mil/usd/uav_roadmap.pdf.
Pioneer

For over 17 years, the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps deployed the Pioneer system aboard ships and ashore to provide

valuable reconnaissance and surveillance for up to four hours

with a 75-pound payload of sensors. After the success of Pioneer in Operation Desert Storm, the RQ-1 Predator joined the

fleet and provided real-time imagery of Bosnia for the North

Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) peacekeeping forces.10 

Predator 

Predator performs a variety of functions for reconnaissance

and surveillance missions. Equipped with an electro-optical/

infrared (EO/IR) sensor and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR),

it gives forces a day/night all-weather reconnaissance capability. The Air Force anticipates using Predators for an extended period of time.11 In addition to the much-employed

Pioneer and Predator platforms acquired by the Navy and Air

Force, respectively, the Army developed the Hunter UAV.12 

Hunter

The Hunter UAV system is particularly noteworthy among

existing unmanned ISR platforms. It has a day/night mission of

ISR and target acquisition for corps commanders.13 Although

Hunter performed to standards, it encountered technical problems. Its software data-link capabilities and engines suffered

from technical defects too expensive to fix.14 Despite production

cancellation in 1996, the Army acquired seven low-rate initial

production systems of eight aircraft each; presently, four of the

systems remain in service.15 

Global Hawk 

Global Hawk is a high-altitude, long-endurance surveillance

and reconnaissance UAV, with a wingspan of over 116 feet and

endurance exceeding 36 hours. Like Predator, it carries an EO/

IR sensor and SAR, but it also contains a moving-target indicator. Until it achieves Initial Operational Capability (IOC), Global

Hawk remains a developmental program. The Air Force expects

IOC by FY05.16 

34

CADRE PAPER
In addition to the current and developmental UAV programs

under the administration of the DOD, the Defense Advanced

Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the primary research organization for advanced DOD projects, sponsors five innovative

programs for introduction before 2010. Among them was the

Air Force’s UCAV, dubbed the X-45, designed for the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) role. In October 2003, the

Air Force’s program merged with the Navy’s UCAV-N program

and became the J-UCAS under DARPA leadership.

Promoting Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Development

When this paper was written, the following three organizations managed the DOD’s UAV programs including their crossservice oversight responsibilities:

1. Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and

Logistics: acquisition and technology oversight;

2. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control,

Communications, and Intelligence: policy, interoperability

standards, and ISR systems oversight; and

3. JCS/Joint Requirements Oversight Council: Unified Combatant Commander priorities evaluation and requirements

formulation.17 

From 1993 to 1998, the Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Office served as the single focal point for UAV administration.18

Although Congress generally provides support for the DOD’s

UAV programs, it exercises extensive oversight, reflecting concerns and differences within the DOD over the cost, speed,

and direction of UAV programs.19 During testing of the Army’s

Aquila UAV program in 1987, the vehicle “was only able to

successfully meet mission requirements on 7 of 105 flights.”20

Testing failures were not conducive to fostering the support

needed to investigate new and viable roles and missions for

UAVs. Due to escalating requirements, high costs, and technical difficulties, Congress cancelled the Army’s Aquila UAV program in 1987, then directed the DOD to establish a centralized

35

MANSKE
UAV program. The DOD created the Joint Program Office for

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (JPO-UAV). 

In 1988 Congress acted to prevent further UAV program

failures. Specifically, the FY88 Continuing Appropriations Act

required the DOD to submit a UAV master plan for execution

under centralized direction. The act stipulated that “the conferees agreed to eliminate funding within the services’ separate

RDT&E [research, development, training and evaluation] accounts for individual RPV[s], and to consolidate these efforts

in a Joint RPV program.”21In other words, the act legislated

inter-service coordination in the UAV developmental process. 

In implementing the act, the DOD organized the JPO-UAV

under the auspices of the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR

SYSCOM) to simplify all services’ UAV developmental efforts.22

The goal of the JPO-UAV was to incorporate as much commercial technology as practicable to foster development of UAVs

while shortening the fielding time for UAV operational employment.23 By this method, DOD leaders hoped to avoid “duplication

of effort, provide joint development to ensure interoperability and

interchangeability to the maximum extent possible, and . . . expedite the fielding of operational systems to the services.”24 However, the enormous expansion of UAVs eventually became too

much for the JPO-UAV to manage. Therefore, strong, independent organizations within the DOD and JCS came to administer

the current UAV oversight structure, which seemed adequate for

fostering UAV development programs. 

In summary, UAVs existed in some form or another for thousands of years. The United States employed UAVs with varying

degrees of success in a variety of roles since World War I. Current

and past UAV programs provided mixed results in efforts to perfect the technology that inevitably drives their design. Developmental programs show promise as efforts to improve Predator

and Global Hawk and accelerate testing of the J-UCAS continue. 

Evaluating Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Technological Feasibility

According to the DOD UAV Roadmap, “before acceptance and

use of UAVs can be expected to expand, advances must occur in

three general areas: reliability, survivability, and autonomy. All

36

CADRE PAPER
of these attributes hinge on technology.”25 These criteria determine the success of any future UAV program and will act as a

starting point for analysis; however, they require other input

for the successful employment of UALVs. Table 3 summarizes

the evaluation of each measure of merit and technological

consideration. The rest of this chapter analyzes each measure

of merit and determines if it offers sufficient reliability, survivability, and autonomy with respect to UALVs. Table 3 also

provides a determination of the technological feasibility of

UALVs for the Air Force based on this analysis.

37

MANSKE

Measure of Merit or

Concept

Projected Availability* R, S, A

**

Remarks

Short-term Midterm Long-term

FY02–12 FY12–22 FY22–32

Airspace

Management

Payload

Capacity

X

X

A, R Assumes UALVs in formation with a manned airlifter.

Otherwise, capability not

available until midterm to

long-term

100,000 to 160,000

pounds recommended

Automated Cargo

Handling Systems

Range

X

X

A, R

R, A

For use in the cargo aerial

delivery/airdrop mission

Dependent to some degree

on automated aerial refueling capabilities and procedures

C3I Systems

Command

Directed Control

X

X A, R

Quickly emerging

Difficult to do remotely––

depends on degree of autonomy required

Man-in-the-Loop

Control

Bandwidth and

Data Link

X

X

A, R

R, A

Depends on proximity/span

of control desired

UALVs require less if deployed as a constellation

Artificial

Intelligence

Navigation

Systems

X

X

A, R

R, A

Depends on level of autonomy desired for neural networks

Require improvements to

enhance command directed control

Table 3. Evaluation of essential unmanned airlift vehicle measures of

merit and concepts
Reliability, Survivability, and Autonomy

A number of factors determine the reliability of a system.

According to the UAV Roadmap, reliability is “a product of

technology and training” and a vital part of increased UAV

mission availability.26 Primarily, the designing of reliability enhancements into UAVs involves trade-offs between a minimum

38

CADRE PAPER

Measure of Merit or

Concept

Projected Availability* R, S, A

**

Remarks

Short-term Midterm Long-term

FY02–12 FY12–22 FY22–32

Counter-GPS

Jammers

Point-of-Use

Airdrop

X

X

R, A

R

Must detect and defeat adversary capabilities

Requires better precision

navigation than currently

available for airdrop guidance

Automated

Approach and

Landing

X A, R,

S

Joint Precision Approach

and Landing System

(JPALS)––currently in 

active test

Defensive Systems

Infrared

Countermeasures

(LAIRCM)

Countermeasures

dispense sets

(CMDS)

System

Redundancy

Simulation

Mishap Rates

X

X

X

X

X

X

S, R,

A

S, R,

A

R, S,

A

R

R, S

Quickly emerging

Currently inadequate, but

quickly emerging, for defense of UALVs

Currently inadequate, but

quickly emerging, for defense of UALVs

Double redundancy is required

Primary training tool

Should sufficiently decrease as UAV technology

advances and experience

increases

Table 3. continued

*Represents a prognosis of each measure of merit or concept in which a minimum acceptable

capability is required to begin development of an unmanned airlift vehicle program.

**R, S, and A represent the technological feasibility criteria of reliability, survivability, and autonomy each measure of merit or concept satisfies.
level of redundancy and costs. Components installed on UAVs

may not necessarily be appropriate for use in manned aircraft

because of less-than-thorough testing with humans but must

be sufficiently reliable for mission accomplishment. Determining

the proper level of reliability for UAVs challenges their designers.

Survivability generally refers to an unmanned vehicle’s

ability to depart on a mission, complete it, and land safely.27

Survivability is a product of tactics and technology in which

aircraft defensive systems play an important role.28 The Basic

Aerospace Doctrine of the US Air Force, published in 1992,

states that “logistics capabilities must be designed to survive

and operate under attack; that is, they must be designed for

combat effectiveness, not peacetime efficiency.”29 This remains

true today as existing USAF airlifters incorporate state-of-theart defensive systems for self-protection. For UALVs in the absence of a human operator, defensive actions, such as rapid

maneuvering to avoid enemy fire, should be automated to aid

in vehicle survivability. 

Autonomy refers to an unmanned system’s ability to function

independently. UALVs should have enough self-sufficiency to

permit mission accomplishment. Autonomy depends on jamproof navigation and communication systems to facilitate mission completion and automated decision logic capable of performing routine operator functions requiring minimum

operator input.

The degree of control humans will have in future UAV operations must be determined. Their primary limitation is the

number of parameters they can attend to, as well as the speed

they control them; nevertheless, they have unique cognitive

skills that cannot be duplicated by machines.30Man will likely

want to exercise tight control over UAVs, but to what degree is

the question? How much autonomy should UALVs give up for

the accomplishment of their mission? The answer depends almost entirely on the available technology, its feasibility for

use, and the defined relationship between the vehicle and man

in the conduct of unmanned airlift missions.

A USAF SAB study determined that the level of human involvement in the design of UAVs tends to be forgotten by UAV

developers and users. The study concluded that in many cases

39

MANSKE
they minimized the importance of the human operators, assuming that most of the UAV functions would be automated.

However, the study’s authors suggested that rather than being

minimized, man’s role in unmanned aircraft operations would

increase and perhaps be more important because of automation.

The authors summarized their position regarding man’s role

when they stated, “The human is not replaced by automation but

is freed from simple and boring tasks to accomplish those functions most suited to human intellect”; however, the simple and

boring tasks accomplished by humans may be beyond the capacity of UAVs to perform.31It is easy to overlook the humanmachine interface given UAV technology’s progression because

complex machines such as unmanned aircraft rely on advanced

engineering concepts still in early stages of development.

In short, when designing the technology for the man-machine

interface of UALVs, users must determine how much autonomy

the vehicle will require. The strategic airlift environment relies on

pilots to perform complex tasks not yet possible with automated

systems, like monitoring navigational aid outages and responding to airfield restrictions and Notices to Airmen.32 If requirements existed for machines to perform these functions, algorithms could be designed to assimilate and apply this

information as required. If UALVs fly in formation, as this thesis

advocates, the aircrew of the manned airlifter would handle

these functions.

“Airlift 2025” 

Before examining the various technologies and measures of

merit, it is worthwhile to mention the work of a 1996 USAFsponsored study to chart a path for airlift’s future. The study’s

authors examined desired airlift attributes for the year 2025

and sought to stimulate thinking on the structure of airlift

forces in response to forecast airlift missions in 2025. The

study, dubbed “Airlift 2025,” investigated future airlift technologies based on the predicted national security environment

in 2025, available technologies at the time the study was written, and emerging technologies likely available by 2025.33

It is important to note that when Air Force Chief of Staff Gen

Ronald Fogleman commissioned the “Airlift 2025” study, power

40

CADRE PAPER
projection was an important facet of US national security.

Recognizing airlift’s role in national security, he realized that

future airlift capabilities should be developed through concepts and ideas of employment that ensured greater viability.

Several interesting ideas and capabilities from the study are

worth noting: cargo payload size, point-of-use delivery and extraction, long unrefueled vehicle range, total resource visibility,

intermodality, modularity, interoperability, responsiveness,

and cost. The study concluded that meeting national objectives forecast for 2025 required all of these capabilities.34 However, while unmanned airlift developers should regard these

capability characteristics in future designs, they should not

consider them necessary for UALVs.

Unmanned Airlift Measures Of Merit 

There are several measures of merit vital to the technological feasibility of unmanned airlifters. The following sections

evaluate the most important of these measures including payload capacity; range; command, control, communication, and

information systems; navigation systems; and defensive systems. At the end of each section, an evaluation of development

for unmanned airlift of each measure of merit determines its

technological feasibility. Table 3 sums up these results, providing a total technological feasibility estimate.

First, this evaluation requires an examination of UAV airspace management. UAV airspace issues affect all UAVs;

therefore, the progress made in managing airspace will have

significant impact on the design of future UAVs. The following

section provides the conceptual employment foundation for

UALVs to evaluate their successive measures of merit. 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Airspace Management Considerations 

The integration of manned and unmanned aircraft into the

same airspace is one of the most difficult technological hurdles

for UAV operations. Currently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States and its international counterpart, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), make

41

MANSKE
plans to integrate the increasing number of UAVs into the airspace. A School of Advanced Airpower Studies thesis on the

subject made the following observation with regard to UAV airspace management difficulties: “The issue of airspace management and deconfliction is key to successful operation in civil

and military environments, so appropriate approaches to airspace deconfliction are essential. . . . At this time, little thinking, planning, or action to develop agreements, rules, and procedures have been accomplished.”35 

The United States is starting to consider solutions regarding

the difficulties associated with airspace management. The UAV

Roadmap prescribes actions US airspace managers must consider to facilitate integration; therefore, “standards must be

established to allow UAVs to operate flexibly within the National Airspace System (NAS), even for high altitude missions

involving flight above all civil traffic, because UAVs reach such

altitudes only after climbing through potentially crowded airspace. These transits through the NAS while en route from

Continental United States (CONUS) bases to overseas operating

areas, like that performed by Global Hawk (Florida to Portugal

for NATO’s Linked Seas exercise in May 2000), will become increasingly common. Emergency/weather diversion through

the NAS into [sic] alternate en route airfields will eventually

occur.”36 Authorities must develop and implement potential

solutions in a way that does not disrupt civil aviation safety

and operations.37 

As UAV use expands, inevitably these vehicles will operate

in the same airspace as manned aircraft, and the safety of the

people aboard manned aircraft remains the greatest concern.

Currently, UAVs operate in restricted airspace independent of

civil traffic “with significant advanced written notification that

can be widely disseminated.”38 They are accorded time and

space via specifically designated airspace such as special corridors and restricted operational zones.39 Yet, with UAVs like the

J-UCAS joining the fight, cooperation and integration with

manned aircraft and new methods of integration must evolve.

The DOD recognized the complexity of this issue well before the

widespread use of ISR UAVs in Operation Allied Force. The Joint

Doctrine Division, J-7 Operational Plans and Interoperability

42

CADRE PAPER
Directorate of the CJCS expressed the military’s policy in a joint

publication that states “UAV operations must be coordinated

with the airspace control authority to provide safe separation

of UAVs and manned aircraft and to prevent engagement by

friendly air defense systems.”40 If UAVs self-deploy overseas to

participate in exercises or to go to war, coordination with the

FAA and ICAO, as applicable, must overcome significant technological challenges.41 Overcoming these challenges will be the

key to the widespread use of UAVs in other roles and missions.

Although the United States fields an armada of UAVs that can

perform nearly every role and mission of the Air Force, it

means little if the support infrastructure is incapable of integrating UAVs with manned aircraft.

Therefore, UALVs must operate in a manner that optimizes

their performance. The UAV Roadmap states that “this positioning will range from station keeping in wide spread constellations

to close formation with other UAVs and/or manned aircraft.”42

Optimally, the best positioning must balance bandwidth and

data-link requirements with safety and survivability of the formation. Formations of UALVs linked with a single manned

“mother ship” airlifter would greatly mitigate airspace management issues while reducing the vulnerability of communication

and command and control links. The Air Force UAV Battlelab at

Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, conducted experiments testing the

feasibility of UAV formation flight and successfully applied the

use of a traffic collision and avoidance system (TCAS) “to better

integrate manned and unmanned flight operations.”43 However,

this is but the first step of a program that must go beyond using

TCAS as a synchronization measure.

So far, this examination of airspace management has focused

primarily on US efforts. However, these UALVs will actively operate in territories throughout the world. Therefore, actions initiated by ICAO nation airspace managers are of consequence to

the United States. For instance, European airspace managers

made a serious effort to ensure safe UAV operations on the continent, including airspace integration policies mirroring the

FAA’s. J-UCAS integration test trials in European airspace continue and “will evaluate whether UCAVs [now J-UCAS] and

43

MANSKE
UAVs can be certified to operate safely alongside manned aircraft in Europe’s crowded skies.”44 

A potential solution to unmanned airspace management difficulties may be near. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the FAA developed a program called the

Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) that “will help

provide a path toward seamless UAV operation” with manned

aircraft.45 SATS will function to provide integration of the currently disparate communication, navigation, and surveillance

measures employed by manned aircraft, thereby moving closer

to autonomous aircraft operations in restricted airspace.

In summation, current airspace management efforts prove

less than optimal for autonomous UAV users. Although countries allocate airspace for UAV operations, this comes at the expense of employment flexibility and limits the potential for new

UAV roles and missions. Safety becomes the most important factor when determining how to integrate unmanned aircraft into

manned airspace, and integration is the primary objective when

J-UCAS operates among manned aircraft. Airspace synchronization methods must be reliable and permit safe and survivable

operations for all airspace users. Therefore, without accurate

projections available for the implementation of the foregoing airspace initiatives, the author advocates employing UALVs in formations with a manned “mother ship” airlifter that can monitor

in-flight progress while also assuming responsibility for flight following and in-flight separation with other aircraft. 

Payload Capacity

The number one factor affecting UALV design and development will be the capability to transport sufficient quantities of

cargo to offset wartime airlift requirements. To maximize flexibility, UALVs require the capability to transport palletized

cargo, oversized and outsized cargo loads, and rolling stock

exceeding the size of standard aircraft pallets. At the present

time, only the C-5 and C-17 possess the capability to transport bulky outsize cargo—a critical US requirement for airlift.

To be an effective complement to manned strategic airlifters,

UALVs should be able to transport cargo a sufficient distance

that minimizes their dependence on ground and in-flight aerial

44

CADRE PAPER
refueling. An effective payload of between 100,000 and 160,000

pounds strikes a balance between adequate capacity and vehicle size necessary to operate at a wide range of airfields while

sufficiently meeting requirements to transport oversize and outsize cargo.46 With a smaller payload capacity, the vehicle risks

the inability to transport bulky oversized cargo, a requirement of

any future airlifter, and a larger payload capacity risks denied

access to a greater number of airfields due to landing weight restrictions.47 No known technological barriers exist that prohibit

the designing of an unmanned airlifter fuselage to accommodate

the stated capacity requirements. However, autonomous cargo

handling capability required for aerial delivery of cargo depends

on the evolution of this emerging technology.

The degree of autonomy in cargo handling systems for UALVs

also depends on their intended function. For example, if employed in formation with manned aircraft, the cargo handling

system does not have to be completely autonomous. Conversely,

those employed independently of manned aircraft require a

higher degree of autonomy. In addition, if UALVs employed exclusively in major hub regions where logistics support is extensive, cargo-handling systems do not need to be automated; however, those employed to low-support regions require highly

automated cargo handling systems (ACHS).48 The technological

feasibility of ACHSs capable of in-flight internal movement of

cargo containers and equipment requires a system to maintain

vehicle center-of-gravity within structural airframe limits. This

system may also assist in optimizing cargo on/off-loading at the

destination, thereby reducing the number of loading and unloading personnel required.49 

One currently available ACHS employs a roller system that

hydraulically maneuvers palletized cargo within the fuselage.

This system uses a conveyor belt to move cargo back and forth

on the cargo floor and a hook device that assists in securing

cargo to the floor. This system will work with rollers and a conveyor belt to control movement of cargo in and out of the aircraft.50 Other ACHS designs, in various stages of development,

may offer greater degrees of autonomy for the airdrop mission.51 If UALVs require automated cargo handling systems in

fulfillment of aerial delivery missions, the technology must

45

MANSKE
continue to mature, which will result in greater vehicle viability.

Reliable, semiautonomous cargo handling systems should be

available for aerial delivery use in the short-term to midterm

depending on the degree of autonomy required. 

Range

Sufficient range becomes another developmental factor of

great importance for strategic UALVs. The conflicts that involved US forces over the past decade stretched the US airlift

system. Additionally, tanker aircraft required to support the

movement of airlifters remain in short supply, signifying the

need for additional tankers in the US fleet. To reduce the dependency on tankers, any future airlift aircraft should possess

sufficient range to conduct global operations with minimal dependency on these scarce resources. However, to increase flexibility of use, UALVs should incorporate an automatic in-flight

air refueling capability with feasible procedures of employment.52

If wars of the future follow previous conflicts in the war on terrorism, as in Afghanistan, air-refueling tankers will remain an

essential part of the equation. In Afghanistan, every mission in

the early stages of the war required air refueling.53 

The USAF SAB advocated greater airlifter range requirements

in its 1996 study in response to capabilities not available without aerial refueling. The authors of the study observed that a radius of 6,000 nautical miles (nm) ensured that most populated

regions of the world could be reached from CONUS basing without relying on tanker aircraft support.54 However, a radius of this

magnitude requires more fuel on board the vehicle, which in

turn would decrease the available payload capacity. To put this

6,000 nm radius in perspective, existing strategic airlifters, like

the C-5, the USAF’s largest cargo aircraft, possess an unrefueled

range of approximately 2,650 nm while transporting its maximum payload of 270,000 pounds.55 By comparison, the smaller

C-17 possesses an unrefueled range of approximately 2,400 nm

while transporting a payload of 160,000 pounds.56 The authors

of the SAB study also observed that “a smaller 3,000 nm radius

allows nearly worldwide coverage from four politically secure

bases (Roosevelt Roads, Mildenhall, Diego Garcia, and Guam),”

while a “1,000 nm radius is sufficient for most in-theater

46

CADRE PAPER
sanctuary operations.”57 Therefore, strategic UALVs should possess an unrefueled range of 3,000 nm or greater. This figure is

sufficient and feasible given designs of existing long-range cargo

aircraft and strategic airlifter intermediate stage basing. The

closer the radius approaches 6,000 nm, the greater the dependence on in-flight aerial refueling or ground refueling at en route

locations. According to one study on air mobility, “a reduced requirement for aerial refueling of airlifters will free up tanker assets for other missions already in demand,” while “a reduced requirement for en route refueling will alleviate the bottlenecks

prevalent in AMC’s en route infrastructure.”58 If possible, UALVs

should incorporate receiver aerial refueling capability for maximum flexibility and extended operational range.59 In case automated air refueling technology does not sufficiently mature to

incorporate into UALVs, consideration should be given to increasing their range. 

Command, Control, Communication,

and Information Systems 

Command, control, communication, and information (C3I)

systems permit human command and control of UAVs. Communication requirements for UAVs in use today include the need to

exercise command and control and to exchange payload (e.g.,

synthetic aperture radar and EO data). Existing methods of UAV

command and control consist of satellite-dependent radio frequency (RF) communication links using bandwidth as conduits.

For example, in the near future UAV command and control capability will be embodied in the J-UCAS.

Effective command and control will be sine qua non for JUCAS operations. Command-directed systems, also known as

preprogrammed or autonomous systems, rely on instructions

and decision tree logic to execute the mission. This makes

command-directed systems ideal for boring and low-risk missions. Its shortcomings in emergencies or fast-changing combat environments in which the decision logic software is not

resident within the vehicle’s avionics suite make it unsuitable

in these situations.60 Because of the unique aspects of the

47

MANSKE
SEAD mission, J-UCAS decision-making logic will be the most

complex system of its kind.

Although autonomous operations remain the command and

control goal for J-UCAS, they require some degree of man-inthe-loop (MITL) capability due to the complex decisions to be

made by the operator to avoid defenses, attack targets, and

immediately make corrections to flight path.61 Global Hawk

employs a hybrid (operator controlled and autonomously controlled) UAV C2 system that allows for limited dynamic retasking

in flight. The MITL system that controls Predator requires operator involvement in nearly all aspects of the operation from

mission planning through engine start, taxi-out, takeoff,

mission execution, landing, taxi-in, and shutdown. Although

MITL control allows for more flexibility, especially if mission

parameters change during flight, it is labor-intensive and invites mistakes.

For instance, during the conduct of a Predator mission, its

operator must continuously make decisions regarding its

operation. The operator acquires minimal situational awareness with respect to the vehicle’s external environment, making

the task difficult. Furthermore, the feedback mechanisms on

the UAV do not provide the operator with situational cues normally perceived by an aircrew aboard an aircraft. The situation

intensifies if the operator is unaware of potential threats such

as terrain, weather, ground fire, or enemy aircraft. 

UALVs, in contrast, would require less sophisticated decision

logic than J-UCAS. Airlift missions do not face the array of

threats associated with the SEAD mission; however, if UALVs

unexpectedly encounter threats, their decision logic must be able

to recognize them and take appropriate corrective action. Under

these circumstances, manned airlifters normally retrograde,

and/or maneuver rapidly in all flight axes to evade the threat.

Additionally, UALVs will not be employed to receive and send

bandwidth-consuming imagery like ISR UAVs; therefore, they

should require less bandwidth than existing ISR UAVs.62 Operating UALVs independently of manned airlifters requires the same

connectivity to command and control agencies on a one-for-one

basis as currently performed by existing UAVs. Employing

UALVs in formations with manned aircraft decreases bandwidth

48

CADRE PAPER
requirements, as only the manned airlifter in the formation

needs to have long-range connectivity with a controlling agency.

The unmanned airlifters only need “local” connectivity with the

manned airlifter that monitors and controls its actions.

When designing and developing C3I for UALVs, engineers

must consider the degree of control operators will possess over

the vehicles. The UAVs reliance on sensors and data-links for

the transfer of information makes them susceptible to jamming. Operators may lack the bandwidth necessary to conduct

safe operations if controlling numerous UAVs simultaneously.63

According to one Air University research paper, “data-link or

radio controlled transmissions create a vulnerability. An adversary could jam or engage these signals, take command of

the aircraft, or at least intercept the downlink.”64 Therefore,

counterjamming technology development becomes essential.

The loss of the electronic link that controls their movements

remains a serious vulnerability. Currently, the United States

employs protective measures against the intrusion of data

broadcast from its Global Hawk and Predator UAVs, but as adversary capabilities to intercept or jam these data links improve, they require new protective solutions.

One new, inexpensive, and innovative data-link technology

offers increased bandwidth capability while also providing better communications security. According to the UAV Roadmap,

the US Naval Research Laboratory “demonstrated an IR [infrared] laser data-link using a multiple quantum well (MQW).

. . . In the MQW concept, the UAV carries no communications

systems at all. . . . Rather, the ground station provides this via

a laser beam focused on a spherical array of voltage modulated polymer panels” located on the UAV’s exterior. Its range,

limited to only a few kilometers, presents the major disadvantage to the MQW technology.65 As a substitute for the ground

station providing the laser beam, a manned airlifter in formation with UALVs could perform this function and provide the

necessary communications. 

The solution to the effects of RF congestion could reside in

several new and potentially revolutionary technologies in various

stages of development. According to the UAV Roadmap, 

49

MANSKE
the key trend in . . . future airborne communication systems is increasing data rates . . . primarily brought on by migration towards

higher RFs and the emerging dominance of optical over RF systems.

Optical systems are laser-based systems, which will offer data rates

two to three orders of magnitude greater than those of the best future

RF systems. The advantages of optical communication were demonstrated in 1996 when a ground-based laser communications (lasercom) system provided rates of 1.1 terabits/second (Tbps) at over 80 nm

range. Airborne . . . Tbps lasercom systems will certainly be possible

by 2025. . . . [Until then] both RF and optical technology development

will continue to progress out to 2025.66

Basically, C3I systems relinquish more autonomy to command and control UALVs, which reduces the ability of current

technologies to accommodate them. If a human controls every

UALV action, MITL technologies will become adequately autonomous and reliable for use in the short-term to midterm

timeframe. However, if UALVs operate autonomously, which is

technologically feasible in the short-term, C3I architectures,

including enhanced artificial intelligence (AI) technologies,

must continue to emerge.

Enhanced AI technologies remain critical to the success of

any unmanned aircraft required to execute tasks that result

from complex human decision-making processes. An example

might be the decision a fighter aircraft makes when determining whether or not to engage a target. Much research done in

the AI arena focused on building intelligent adaptive neural networks that “learn” over time and remember what they have

learned for future application. As one can imagine, this expensive technology must advance significantly before being incorporated into UAVs.67 Perfecting adequate AI technology remains

a future challenge, as UAVs are vested with greater autonomy

over traditional human functions. As a key technology, process,

and system attribute (TPSA) for the UCAV, AI progress should

be monitored for potential application to other UAV programs. It

should be sufficiently reliable and autonomous for use in unmanned airlifters by the midterm timeframe. 

Navigation Systems

Reliable navigation systems are vital to the function of all aircraft. UALVs require a higher degree of reliability and autonomy.

50

CADRE PAPER
Not only do the navigation systems need to be reliable, they must

employ methods to detect and correct navigation errors.

A technology known as receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) works with global positioning system (GPS) receivers to detect and correct such errors. “RAIM notifies pilots of

several types of malfunctions including loss of satellite coverage

and out-of-range navigation data [and] continuously evaluates

the quality of the data it provides to the flight crew.”68 RAIM, or

its updated successor, should be available for UALVs, providing

them the required degree of reliability for autonomous operations. RAIM faces the challenge to develop an antijam GPS system.69 GPS jammers are potentially destructive devices capable

of interrupting the navigation signal many aircraft rely upon for

primary navigation. Precise and reliable navigation systems required for precision airdrop missions may enhance point-of-use

delivery capabilities of UALVs.70 AMC expects that advances in

point-of-use standoff delivery systems, like automatic steering

parachutes, to be reliable at the beginning of the midterm

timeframe. 

Another navigation system important to the feasibility of

UALVs is the automatic approach and landing system.

Raytheon, an aerospace products company under Air Force

contract, worked on a precise automated landing system for

manned aircraft that shows potential in applications for unmanned aircraft. The Air Force uses an electronic navigation

and landing system for Global Hawk, but Raytheon’s system

possesses even greater capability. According to Raytheon’s

Bruce Solomon, project director for the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS) program, manned and

unmanned aircraft can benefit from the extremely precise approach and landing technology JPALS offers. JPALS functions

through an approach and landing system using differential

GPS (DGPS). DGPS, in contrast to standard GPS, “knows” the

amount of error by which standard GPS receivers “drift” from

accurate readings. DGPS then takes this error and uses it to

correct its own position. DGPS uplinks this data to very high

frequency (VHF) receivers aboard aircraft flying in the terminal

area, providing precise position information. This capability

allows for the execution of precise approaches and safe land51

MANSKE
ings on the surface.71

The company tested JPALS with a military test aircraft on

200 precision approaches. Some of the tests used a specially

configured Boeing 727 aircraft, signifying its potential application to large unmanned aircraft. In addition, JPALS meets

the DOD’s need for an antijam and secure approach and is a

landing system capable of operation in a hostile environment.72

Because of JPALS and technologies like it, UAV mishaps in the

landing phase should be drastically reduced. As an emerging

technology, JPALS enhances the reliability, survivability, and

autonomy of potential UALVs. 

In summation, navigation systems for manned and unmanned

aircraft are currently reliable, autonomous, and mature enough

for incorporation into unmanned airlifters. Advanced GPS receivers with RAIM provide a capability for autonomous operations but only in permissive environments due to the possibility

of jamming. GPS jammers pose antiaccess challenges to UALVs,

leaving questions of their survivability in a wartime environment

unanswered. In addition, technological feasibility for the precision airdrop mission remains a challenge even for manned airlifters today. To perform the airdrop mission effectively with

UALVs, technology must sufficiently emerge to permit precise

point-of-use aerial delivery operations. 

Defensive Systems 

Likely to be employed in hostile conditions, UALVs also need

protection from potential threats, much like manned airlifters.

Existing ISR UAVs do not have active defensive systems to protect them, as they generally cost less when compared to their

manned counterparts with the exception of Global Hawk. The

ISR UAV’s primary purpose, collecting information in the face of

potential threats, removes the hazards to humans. Active defensive systems unnecessarily add costs to these UAVs. They also

carry smaller payloads (most are less than 3,000 pounds) in

comparison to potential payloads for UALVs. ISR UAV payloads

consist primarily of sensors needed to execute the vehicle’s mission. In addition, enemies find it much harder to target a small

UAV than a larger, less maneuverable one. The higher expense,

larger payload, larger size, less maneuverability, and greater

52

CADRE PAPER
vulnerability of UALVs should meet the criteria for incorporating

defensive capabilities. 

During Operation Allied Force, Serbian air defenses forced

the inefficient routing of many AMC sorties. In this context,

the combatant commander, USTRANSCOM, noted before Congress that “the hostile skies over Kosovo presented a threat to

air mobility aircraft and crews that we have only recently

begun to recognize,” and that this was the kind of “threat we

see growing in significance in future contingencies.” Furthermore, he declared, “As the man-portable air defense (MANPAD)

threat continues to proliferate throughout the world, especially in the hands of terrorists and other rogues, the threat

may become great enough to force us to curtail mobility operations in a particular area. To counter this threat, we must develop a comprehensive program to protect our air mobility assets.”73 An Aviation Week and Space Technology writer echoed

this sentiment, proclaiming that the war in Kosovo brought to

the surface the issue of outfitting active countermeasures on

future UAVs. He argued that countermeasures were “not

worthwhile for small tactical UAVs that are much smaller than

contemporary fighter aircraft, but they might be considered on

large, high-cost systems.”74 If the United States plans continued

employment of airlifters in hostile theaters of operations, defensive systems will remain a top priority for AMC aircraft,

manned or unmanned.

This philosophy goes counter to tactical UAV conventions in

which the UAV operational commander assumes the risk.

AMC’s Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary examined the

issue in some detail, highlighting the need for defensive systems on all airlift aircraft. It determined that due to the nature

of airlift missions, (e.g., humanitarian, peacekeeping, peace

enforcement, etc.) active defensive systems became necessary.

Yet, the plan stated that existing defensive systems installed

on manned airlifters lack the ability to deal with threats. “Proliferation of threat systems, coupled with multi-faceted mission requirements, define[s] the need for more discerning, precise threat warning systems.”75 To employ unmanned airlifters

into known hostile areas with the intent of recovering them,

53

MANSKE
robust, reliable, and survivable defensive systems become a

necessary capability.

The key to obtaining survivable and reliable defensive systems

resides in the relationship between USAF research labs and AMC

leadership. Former combatant commander USTRANSCOM, General Robertson, felt that the relationship between the mobility air

forces, research labs, and industry was vital to developing, testing, and evaluating proper defensive systems to counter the

threat.76

What kind of defensive systems, then, should UALVs possess?

It depends largely on the value of the UALV as a transporter of

valuable cargo. As a minimum, this should include the large aircraft infrared countermeasures (LAIRCM) system. LAIRCM protects large, vulnerable aircraft from MANPADs and counters advanced IR missile systems; therefore, “the missile warning

subsystem will use multiple sensors to provide full spatial coverage. The counter-measures subsystem will use lasers mounted

in pointer-tracker turret assemblies.”77Based on the experiences

of airlifters in Operation Allied Force, AMC placed LAIRCM number one on its list of acquisition priorities.78 In addition, potential

threats necessitate the use of countermeasures dispense sets

designed to eject flares and chaff, which are standard equipment

on existing airlifters. 

Should stealth technology be adapted to UALVs as a passive

defense measure? Stealth serves an important function for the

F-117 Nighthawk and B-2 Spirit. Stealth permits these assets

to strike and destroy deep, high-value targets with a reduced

risk of enemy detection. It will also serve a similar purpose for

the high-risk SEAD mission of the J-UCAS. However, stealth

is more expensive to incorporate and maintain, especially if

large numbers of vehicles are purchased. Until stealth aircraft

skins become easier to procure and maintain, incorporating

stealth technology on unmanned airlifters significantly increases costs, making them financially infeasible. 

Current defensive systems provide marginal reliability for

today’s manned airlifter fleet. The LAIRCM system and its successor technologies when developed and incorporated into the

current manned airlift fleet should provide an adequate degree

of reliability and survivability protection for the current and

54

CADRE PAPER
next generation of airlift vehicles, manned or unmanned. Because UALVs would likely operate in a strategic intertheater

role versus a tactical intratheater role, it may not be necessary

to equip unmanned airlifters with the same degree of defensive

capability as manned airlifters. UALVs would probably not operate at small, unimproved airfields because the technology

required to invest them with that capability would be costprohibitive. Therefore, the author contends that to retain

maximum mission flexibility with UALVs, a minimum active

defensive system should be installed on the vehicle. The costbenefit tradeoff of equipping UALVs with defensive systems

dictates their installation. UALVs equipped with a minimum

defensive capability provides protection for the vehicle and its

cargo from destruction of airborne and ground threats. Since

technological feasibility and cost are inextricably linked to

each other in all UAV programs, cost of defensive capabilities

will ultimately determine their inclusion.

Additional Unmanned Airlift

Vehicle Considerations

The balance of the chapter focuses on additional considerations contributing to the feasibility of unmanned airlift. In addition to the measures of merit examined above, two additional

design considerations pertinent to UALV design are worth reviewing. First, system redundancy in the design of any unmanned aircraft including UALVs necessitates a tradeoff between reliability, survivability, and autonomy. Tradeoffs exist

between cost and technological feasibility; therefore, incorporating the appropriate level of redundancy in UALVs will be

key to their efficiency. Second, the role of simulation in unmanned aircraft design, development, training, and operations

play a key role in UALV technological feasibility, amounting to

more reliable, survivable, and autonomous weapon systems.

Following these examinations, a section on UCAV program

processes presents an illustration of the latest in UAV developmental practices. Many of these practices set a new standard

for UAV development and bear a direct relationship to the

technological feasibility of UALVs. The chapter concludes with

general comments on the technological feasibility obstacles

55

MANSKE
UALV developers may face and a reasonable prognosis for surmounting them. 

System Redundancy

System redundancy, incorporated for safety and liability reasons, forms a key component of feasibility. Most manned aircraft

built today incorporate triple redundancy into their major systems. The hydraulic, electrical, avionic, and environmental systems provide the most redundancy, which reduces the potential

for loss of life that typically results from the failure of major systems. Unlike manned aircraft, UALVs do not require the same

high degree of redundancy, as the loss of life is not an issue. 

To preserve UALVs in the event of major system failure, double redundancy should suffice for two important reasons. First,

double redundancy allows a backup system to take over in case

a primary system fails. This minimum level of redundancy also

helps compensate for the lack of a human pilot. Second, since

the vehicle will be transporting supplies and equipment of great

value to the user, double redundancy acts as insurance against

vehicle and more importantly cargo loss. Although the decision

of how much redundancy to build into a UALV must be weighed

against cost factors, system redundancy allows a valuable asset

with valuable cargo to arrive at its destination free from its own

malfunction-related destruction. 

The Role of Simulation in Unmanned

Aircraft Operations 

From design and development to training, simulation of

operations provides an inexpensive means of utility analysis

for emerging UAV designs, concepts, and ideas. Simulation

must accurately duplicate the conditions that it emulates. According to the USAF SAB report on UAV technologies, “simulation can help address key front-end human systems issues,

such as the role of the human, workload and staffing, display

and control concepts, and general problems of crew station

layout as well as concept of operations, command and control,

etc.”79 In other words, simulation helps determine the feasibility

of an unmanned aircraft operations concept.

56

CADRE PAPER
Simulation provides a means to train UAV operators, who

make UAVs inexpensive alternatives to manned aircraft.80 According to the UAV Roadmap, “today’s manned aircraft are flown

over 95% (50 percent for ISR aircraft) of the time for peacetime

training of aircrews . . . because aircrews must practice in their

environment to maintain their flying proficiency.”81 A majority of

the training for future UAVs could be conducted in simulators.

“While some level of actual UAV flying will be required to train

manned aircraft crews in executing cooperative missions with

UAVs, a substantial reduction in peacetime UAV attrition losses

can probably be achieved.”82 Assuming UALVs are employed in

formations with a manned airlifter, the airlifter could have UALV

control stations in the cargo area in which vehicle operators

monitor their flight status. Global Hawk employs a similar

method of vehicle control using operators to monitor flight

progress and vehicle status. In the manned airlifter, each UALV

operator would be responsible for monitoring two or more of the

vehicles much the same way as the J-UCAS.83 

Joint Unmanned Air Combat Systems

Program Development Practices

If unmanned airlift development is to flourish, successful

development practices from other successful UAV programs

must be adopted. Conceived through a defined requirement to

perform the SEAD mission, the J-UCAS program has been

successful thus far. According to DARPA, the objective of the

UCAV (now J-UCAS) program “is to design, develop, integrate,

and demonstrate the critical and key technologies, processes,

and systems attributes (TPSA) pertaining to an operational

UCAV system.”84 TPSAs include the critical technology areas of

adaptive autonomous control; advanced cognitive aids integration; secure robust command, control, and communications;

and compatibility with integrated battlespace. In a general sense,

they are necessary technological attributes for all UAVs. DARPA

planned on developing and demonstrating 15 key and critical

TPSAs during a series of 150 ground, flight, and simulation

tests. “Collectively, these activities will demonstrate the technical feasibility, validate mission effectiveness projections, and

provide an 80% cost confidence in the affordability projections”

57

MANSKE
of the UCAV.85 DARPA grouped the 15 TPSAs into the following four categories:

Air vehicle

1. Affordable air-vehicle unit/recurring flyaway cost 

2. Weapons suspension and release 

3. Survivable air-vehicle integration

Mission control system 

4. Dynamic distributed mission/vehicle control 

5. Advanced cognitive aids integration, mission planning

System integration 

6. Advanced targeting and engagement process 

7. Force integration, interoperability, and information

assurance

8. Secure, robust communication capability 

9. Adaptive, autonomous operations 

10. Affordable large-scale software 

11. Coordinated multivehicle-flight motion

Support system 

12. Low observable maintainability

13. Affordable operating and support cost, and integrated vehicle health management

14. Mobility, rapid deployment and footprint 

15. Sortie rate, turn time and ground ops86

Of these 15 TPSAs, 1, 4, 5, and 7–15 directly apply to UALV

program development. Processes and lessons learned from the

integration of these TPSAs should be used in all future UAV

developmental efforts and evaluated with respect to reliability,

survivability, and autonomy. Measures of progress should be

established to ensure each conform to the objectives of any development program. Goals established for the program need to

58

CADRE PAPER
be realistic and tailored according to a specified timeline, as is

the case with the J-UCAS program. The timeline for each of

the TPSAs denotes a realistic expectation for availability and

inclusion into the J-UCAS program. Although the J-UCAS program provides an excellent example to model UALV development, many of its objectives focus strictly on combat strike

operations. A need exists to transfer the application of those

ideas and technologies to UALVs. Despite the progress and

technological advancements made to develop more reliable,

survivable, and autonomous UAVs, formidable obstacles must

be surmounted. 

Thus far, this chapter demonstrates that essential UALV

technologies exist or will reasonably emerge, yielding the potential for unmanned airlifters in the midterm. However, when

UAV designers and developers attempt to integrate individual

near-feasible technologies into a practicable and airworthy

unmanned aircraft system, system synthesis challenges arise.

The next section addresses these challenges and offers possible solutions. 

Technological Feasibility Challenges

Advancements in sensors, propulsion, and navigation technologies, among others, led to capabilities never before imagined

for UAVs. Yet, skepticism of the DOD’s efforts toward UAV feasibility abound. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) proved especially critical as evidenced by the following statement: “Although unmanned aerial vehicles appear to show great promise

and many people have high expectations for them, the Congress

is concerned that so many of the UAV systems that [the] DOD

has developed or is developing have experienced problems. Historically, many of the services’ UAV programs have run into technical difficulties.”87 These problems appear unlikely to go away in

the near future and must be thoroughly examined before any

new UAV roles and missions are considered. Because the DOD

manages all US armed forces’ UAV programs, it must take the

lead in fostering improved unmanned aircraft systems. The QDR

outlined the technological mandate for future UAV programs,

contrasting the exploitation of a strong science and technology

59

MANSKE
program with “evolving military needs” designed to defeat potential adversaries.88 

UAVs experienced mishap rates 10 to 100 times greater than

manned aircraft.89 If manned aircraft programs sustained the

same rates, they would be grounded until a solution was found.

Such high mishap rates would be unacceptable for any UALV

program given the preceding discussion. However, at what point

in program development should this decision be made? The cost

of frequently destroyed user cargo and the cost of destroyed vehicles may be reason enough to consider whether to continue

supporting a UALV program. There must be reasonable assurances that mishap rates for UALVs compare to manned aircraft

before significant investment will be made in their future. 

Significantly, there have been more, failures with past UAVs

than successes. Popular wisdom suggests that successive UAV

programs grew stronger from past failures, but that may not satisfy congressional appropriations committees that influence

budgetary decision makers. Crashes plagued nearly all programs

and caused a few to cancel. What do UAV accident statistics say

about the safety and viability of unmanned aircraft? Israel’s extensive UAV experience provides one perspective. 

Israel accumulated more operational experience with UAVs

than any other nation. A recent study of Israeli UAV mishaps

after accumulating 80,000 hours of operations (the US fleet

was at the 50,000 hour mark in 2002) showed three reliability

related areas—flight control systems, propulsion, and operator

training—accounting for 75 percent of the mishaps. “The potential savings from improvements in these three areas makes a

strong case for identifying and incorporating such reliability enhancements in existing and all future UAV designs.”90According

to the UAV Roadmap, by significantly reducing the occurrence of

these reliability and survivability incidents, an appreciable savings in vehicle acquisition costs could result.91 

Advancements in the three reliability related areas provide sufficient assurances that lend themselves to acceptable parameters for UALVs in the short-term to midterm timeframe. In other

words, UAV mishap rates over the next 10 to 20 years will likely

equal or better those of manned aircraft. Increased experience

with UAVs resulted in many technological advances that over

60

CADRE PAPER
time will reduce mishap rates, suggesting a potential reversal in

these rates. A closer look at each reliability related area reveals

more. A Stanford University study that tested UAV flight control

systems observed that technology exists to significantly reduce

flight control–related mishaps, but may involve cost trade-offs

when applied to larger aircraft.92 Additionally, the propulsion related mishaps of Israel with Pioneer as well as the US experience

with Pioneer and Predator, occurred mostly as a function of less

reliable propeller-driven engine UAVs. UALVs should have either

more reliable jet engines to transport their larger payloads or a

successor propulsion technology, significantly reducing propulsion related mishaps. Operator training must focus more closely

on mis-hap causes in the same way that aircrews study manned

aircraft-accident reports. This provides the best way to lessen the

occurrence of operator related mishaps and enhance the feasibility of UALVs. 

Lastly, for future UAV programs to succeed, the most technologically advanced nation in the world must overcome the challenge of successfully integrating UAV technologies and employ

them to their fullest potential. Individually feasible technologies

prove worthless unless they can be successfully combined and

incorporated into an airworthy unmanned aircraft system. The

evidence presented in this chapter indicates that designing and

building reliable, survivable, and sufficiently autonomous UALVs

is certainly in the realm of possibility.

Summary

This chapter examined the technological feasibility of UA as

a potential future function of the USAF. The chapter included

a history of UAV developments and current DOD UAV programs.

The facts show that throughout the last century, UAV development progressed favorably in response to operational requirements and available technologies. Scientists evaluated

technological feasibility against the standard DOD UAV criteria of reliability, survivability, and autonomy. Subsequently,

additional considerations bearing on the design and development of UALVs including UCAV program development practices established a new and improved paradigm for UAV

61

MANSKE
evolvement. Lastly, technological feasibility challenges provided cautions against what some experts perceive as obstacles to future UAV development and demonstrated that technological progress advanced, and these obstacles will be

surmounted in the near future. The history of UAV development over the last decade and a review of essential measures

of merit applied to the specific requirements of the airlift mission indicate that there exists reasonable assurance to design,

develop, and field a functional UALV in the short-term to

midterm timeframe. 

Notes

1. Wagner and Sloan, Fireflies and Other UAVs, 15.

2. Armitage, Unmanned Aircraft, xi. 

3. Herskovitz, “A Sampling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 66. 

4. Taylor and Munson, Jane’s Pocket Book of Remotely Piloted Vehicles:

Robot Aircraft Today, 18. 

5. Clark, Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicles: Airpower by the People, for

the People, but not with the People, 8. 

6. Larm, “Expendable Remotely Piloted Vehicles for Strategic Offensive

Airpower Roles,” 14–15. 

7. Ricks and Squeo, “Why the Pentagon is often Slow to Pursue Promising New Weapons,” 8. 

8. Biass and Braybrook, “The UAV as a Sensor Platform: From Pioneer to

Global Hawk,” 4.

9. Ibid., 2. 

10. Reinhardt, James, and Flanagan, “Future Employment of UAVs: Issues of Jointness,” 37. 

11. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Roadmap 2000–2025, 4. 

12. Biass and Braybrook, “The UAV as a Sensor Platform,” 2. 

13. GAO, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, 4. 

14. Rivers, “UAVs: 100 Eyes in the Sky,” 45. 

15. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 4.

16. Ibid.

17. Ibid., 27. 

18. Ibid. 

19. Kosiak and Heeter, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Current Plans and

Prospects for the Future,” 3.

20. GAO, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, 2. The Aquila was a small tactical

information gathering UAV carried by four army soldiers that fed real-time

information back to troops and commanders from beyond line-of-sight distances.

21. Kosiak and Heeter, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 3.

62

CADRE PAPER
22. Ibid.; and Longino, Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Future Armed

Conflict Scenarios, 15. 

23. Kosiak and Heeter, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 3.

24. Longino, “Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 15.

25. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 17. 

26. Ibid. 

27. Fellows et al., “Airlift 2025,” 11.

28. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 17. 

29. Air Force Manual 1-1, Basic Aerospace Doctrine of the United States

Air Force, vol. 1, 15.

30. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, vol. 1, Summary, 4-3.

31. Ibid., 7-1, 7-2. 

32. Tobin, “Piloting the USAF’s UAV Fleet,” 27.

33. Fellows, “Airlift 2025,” vi.

34. Ibid., 16. 

35. Tobin, “Piloting the USAF’s UAV Fleet,” 9. 

36. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 56. 

37. Barry and Zimet, “UCAVs: Technological, Policy, and Operational

Challenges,” 1–8.

38. Ibid. 

39. Noguier, “Next Mission Unmanned,” 109.

40. JP 3-55.1, Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Unmanned

Aerial Vehicles, II-6. 

41. Ibid. 

42. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 47.

43. Ibid., 43.

44. Cook, “Europe’s Dilemma: Manned or Unmanned?” 43–44. 

45. Budd, “Unmanned Airlift,” 3. This paper goes into great depth on the

SATS concept, revealing an implementation window in the United States between 2005 and 2010.

46. Battershell, The DoD C-17 versus the Boeing 777, 72–3. This range of

payload capacities is selected based on C-17 data because the C-17 design

incorporates the latest technological enhancements for optimizing payload

capacity. Original effective payload requirements for the C-17 varied from

160,000 pounds, transporting the payload 2,400 nm unrefueled down to

110,000 pounds, nominally transporting the payload 3,200 nm unrefueled. 

47. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary. Approximately 70 percent of the cargo to fulfill the requirements of existing wartime

scenarios in the first month is oversized and outsized. With unreliable C-5s

(less than 60 percent operational by most estimates) and the slow accession

of C-17s (one to two ratio of retiring C-141s), the next strategic airlifter must

possess oversized and outsized capability to avoid a high level of war-fighting

risk. Added to these payload capacities are fuel and vehicle fuselage weights,

the sum of which can restrict operations.

63

MANSKE
48. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, vol. 2, Panel

Reports, 2-34.

49. Fellows, “Airlift 2025,” 41. 

50. Mitchell Industries, “Final Proposal,” 26.

51. Allvin, “Paradigm Lost,” 56–59. This paper provides an illuminating

description of several automated cargo-handling technologies developed by

Wright Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. 

52. Air Force Research Laboratory, Automated Aerial Refueling, (PowerPoint presentation, 26 March 2002), slide 3. 

53. Loeb, “Fill ‘er Up,” F01.

54. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, 4-2. 

55. Air Force Link, “C-5 Galaxy.” 

56. Air Force Link, “C-17 Globemaster III.” The C-17 has a maximum

payload capacity of 170,900 pounds. 

57. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, 4-2. 

58. Hazdra, Air Mobility, 95.

59. DARPA-USAF, “UCAV Program Overview,” slide 44. Any future UAV

program requiring automated in-flight aerial refueling will depend on the

tests conducted within the next few years with the J-UCAS.

60. Chun, Aerospace Power in the Twenty-First Century, 296. 

61. Ibid.

62. Jumper, “Corona South 2002,” 1. If UALVs are employed in formations

with a manned airlifter, the manned airlifter is likely to have an ISR collection

suite onboard. There is currently a push from current Air Force Chief of Staff

General Jumper to foster development of multifunctional-aircraft platforms

such as the “smart tanker” initiative that involves taking advantage of technological advances in ISR to outfit existing and new tankers with sensor

equipment. 

63. Chun, Aerospace Power, 296.

64. Nolan, “The Pilotless Air Force?” 28.

65. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 34. 

66. Ibid., 32. 

67. Puttre and Sherman, “A Little Payload Goes a Long Way,” 42; and

Glade, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 10. 

68. Manske, “Looking Ahead at the Future of Airlift,” 9. 

69. Barry and Zimet, “UCAVs,” 1–8.

70. USAF SAB, New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century, Summary Volume, 65.

71. Bruce Solomon, (program director for Raytheon Company’s JPALS),

interview by the author, 30 January 2002. 

72. Ibid.

73. House, Statement of Gen Charles T. Robertson Jr., USAF, Readiness

Impact of Operations in Kosovo.

74. Zaloga, “Conflicts Underscore UAV Value, Vulnerability,” 103.

75. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary.

76. Ibid.

64

CADRE PAPER
77. Federation of American Scientists, “Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures (LAIRCM).”

78. Ibid.

79. USAF SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, 7-3, 7-4. 

80. Kaufman, “Predator UAV Operators take Distance Learning to Challenging Heights,” 3. Predator UAV training consists of 50 classroom hours,

28.5 simulator hours, and 34.5 hours spent flying 15 missions. More time

is spent flying Predator on training missions because of the vehicle’s inherent lack of autonomous systems. UALVs could be designed with greater autonomy, like Global Hawk and J-UCAS, requiring less operator intervention. 

81. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 45.

82. Ibid., 55.

83. DARPA-USAF, “UCAV Overview,” slides 6 and 40. Block five highlights of the UCAV concept of operations calls for single operators to control

multiple vehicles by mid-FY 06. Accordingly, UALVs should be able to use

this technology for their own concept of operations.

84. Ibid., slide 3. 

85. Ibid.

86. Ibid. 

87. CBO, Options for Enhancing the Department of Defense’s Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Programs, 18.

88. Office of the Secretary of Defense, QDR, 41.

89. Ibid. 

90. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 45. 

91. Ibid.

92. Evans et al., “Flight Tests of an Unmanned Air Vehicle with Integrated Multi-Antenna GPS Receiver and IMU,” 9.

65

MANSKE
Chapter 5

Financial Capability

Estimating cost is often an art. This is particularly true for

systems that are performing new tasks with technologies

not heretofore used. Estimating costs for evolutionary systems and subsystems is not simple, but there is a process

and there are analogs which help guide the cost estimator.

Parametric approaches against existing manned aircraft

costs must be applied with care, for an unmanned aircraft

will entail a very different design approach.

—USAF Scientific Advisory Board

Besides the mitigation of risk, the next greatest benefit of

UAVs is their lower expense when compared to manned aircraft.1 US ISR-UAV programs administered over the last 10

years have striven to keep the development, procurement and

acquisition, operations and support (O&S), and life-cycle costs

below those of comparable manned programs. Other cost savings have also resulted from unmanned aircraft use, most notably, the absence of the cost infrastructure associated with

supporting the human(s) operating manned aircraft. This cost

infrastructure includes pay, allowances, initial training, and

continuation training, among others. These high overhead

costs when combined can vary from 30 to 40 percent of the

total aircraft program cost. To determine if there can be a role

for unmanned airlifters in the Air Force, the author examines

in this chapter the financial capability of unmanned aircraft

programs in relation to manned aircraft programs. The comparisons drawn by this data are then extrapolated and applied

to UALVs and manned airlifters. If operational requirements

and technological feasibility exist, as previously established

and if unmanned aircraft programs can demonstrate financial

cost-effectiveness over manned programs, a role exists for

UALVs in the USAF.

The United States must capitalize on its technological superiority by attempting to field cost-effective systems allowing its

67
armed forces to maintain an edge on the battlefield. USAF airlifters are aging faster than programmed due to continuous response to worldwide contingencies. This demands that defense

transportation planners now examine midterm and long-term

capabilities to meet those requirements.2 Increased operating

costs have been the result of an airlift fleet averaging nearly 25

years and suffering from poor reliability and extensive maintenance.3 Lowered reliability and increased operating costs

coupled with diminishing budgets for airlift ultimately result

in a smaller and less effective airlift force that makes it difficult to meet global airlift requirements.4 

This chapter begins with an analysis of the development, procurement, O&S, training, and life-cycle costs of current UAV programs. It also investigates DOD acquisition processes and general UAV savings. The analysis also examines and highlights cost

comparisons between manned and unmanned aircraft programs

throughout.

Costs and Comparisons

Cost is an important consideration in the development of future airlift platforms and their support systems.5 Determining

the cost-effectiveness of unmanned aircraft systems requires a

balanced comparison between manned and unmanned systems.

The UAV Roadmap defines what costs should be considered in

this comparison: “Any full and fair comparison of manned and

unmanned aircraft costs must consider the three phases of any

weapon system’s life-cycle cost: development, procurement, and

operations & support (O&S). . . . It is not necessary that a single

UAV replicate its manned counterpart’s performance; what matters is whether the UAV can functionally achieve the same mission objectives more cost effectively.”6

Providing a definitive cost-benefit analysis of manned versus

unmanned aircraft vehicles is beyond the scope of this paper.

However, the cost comparisons presented here should sufficiently answer the research question regarding the overall financial soundness of the UALV concept.

68

CADRE PAPER
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Funding

and the Defense Budget

Over the last several years, the DOD steadily increased the

budget for UAV programs. In FY99, the DOD invested approximately $115 million, which accounted for less than 1 percent of

its acquisition budget.7 For FY03, the DOD has budgeted $189

million for UAV programs, planning higher increases of funding beyond that.8 In addition, it allocated $339 million for

FY04, $366 million for FY05, and $392 million for FY06.9 It

seems there has never been a time when UAV funding has

been more generous. If the trend continues, perhaps the DOD

will consider UAVs for other roles and missions as theater

commanders extol their war-fighting benefits. However, a major

problem exists with respect to funding UAV programs, as operating costs are unknown.10 Until recently, a fiscally constrained funding environment that focused funding on higher

priority USAF aircraft programs exacerbated this uncertainty

and left strategic airlift funding absent, especially for the procurement of the expensive but capable C-17 and upgrades for

the unreliable C-5. 

Before the events of 9/11, there was a struggle to procure airlift to meet the requirements and conditions established by MRS05. As described in chapter 2, MRS-05 recommended purchase

of 170 to 180 C-17s to close the airlift gap and fulfill wartime airlift requirements.11 USAF officials are lobbying for an additional

42 C-17s beyond that for a total inventory of 222. The fundamental consideration is if world events had not occurred as they

did on 9/11, the US airlift fleet would still be in jeopardy of failing to meet established requirements. Can the United States get

the same capability more cost-effectively in the future? Global

Hawk provides one example. 

Global Hawk has been developed with a cost-saving strategy

from its inception. This strategy was implemented by using cost

as the independent variable; “The only firm requirement is that

the average cost of the 11th through 20th air vehicles . . . be no

more than $10 million (in 1994 dollars). All other technical

characteristics can be traded to fulfill that requirement.”12 The

DOD planned to procure Global Hawk numbers five through

seven at a cost of approximately $56.93 million each, a figure

69

MANSKE
that will decrease as development costs are amortized.13 By

comparison, these development costs are roughly half that of

the U-2 aircraft Global Hawk is designed to replace.14 Though

it is easy to keep costs down for ISR UAVs, because basic UAV

technologies have existed for some time, it may be difficult to

do the same for unproven unmanned aircraft technologies

such as the UALV. As the epigraph at the beginning of this

chapter declares, cost is an uncertainty, which is especially

true for unproven technologies.

Cost Overview

Before examining costs, one must understand the basics of

the defense acquisition process. First, broadly stated mission

needs are translated into operational requirements through a

process known as requirements evolution. From there, basic acquisition planning begins, including risk management analysis.

Subsequent to this process, a systems engineering phase begins,

which incorporates design and development processes and development cost allocation. These front-end costs, depending on

the viability of the program, determine whether a program will

continue through the acquisition cycle.

Once a program is selected for acquisition, procurement costs

are budgeted to fund the system into the inventory. O&S costs

assist in the subsequent operation and maintenance of the

fielded system. Altogether, the development, procurement, and

O&S costs constitute the life-cycle costs of a fielded system during its active service. This simplified explanation provides the

conceptual foundation necessary for understanding the ensuing

examination of the cost concepts used in this chapter. 

Research And Development Costs

Research and development (R&D) costs can be very high for

UAVs, especially unproven ones. Yet, they are not as high as development costs for manned aircraft. The reason they are high is

that they are also categorized with research, test, and evaluation

costs, which front a disproportionately high percentage of any

weapon system’s budget, manned or unmanned.15 A difficulty

with securing adequate funding for a new defense program is

70

CADRE PAPER
substantiating its anticipated capabilities. An expert on unmanned aircraft concepts commented astutely on the difficulties

of developing unproven unmanned aircraft concepts: “In general

it can be said that if a particular unmanned aircraft is designed

to be simple, limited in role and recoverable . . . then its costeffectiveness can scarcely be in doubt. But if the unmanned aircraft is more complex, larger and thus more vulnerable; if it requires skilled controllers and other expensive support . . . then

its cost-effectiveness compared with manned aircraft that can

carry out repeated, varied and complex missions, is by no means

easy to judge.”16 Though written 14 years ago, these words still

hold true today. Otherwise, large, complex UAVs would have

already been developed and fielded. How should the United

States proceed in developing and procuring cost-effective unmanned aircraft to fulfill new roles and missions, particularly

airlift missions? 

One way is to follow the progress made in the development

of the J-UCAS, which will arguably be the most complex UAV

developed to date. Many developers believe that the J-UCAS

will “cost less per unit to acquire, operate, and maintain than

manned aircraft,” but will “require significant research and

development (R&D) investment to bring them to the point of

production. . . . However, once R&D costs are amortized across

a larger fleet, the UCAV unit cost is anticipated to drop to

around $30 million or less—about half that of a manned system.”17 Just like the J-UCAS in which the mission and vehicle

concept are unproven, the costs of developing UALVs are also

likely to be high. R&D costs for UALVs will depend on the level

of support the program garners, how effectively the program

fulfills operational requirements, and how technologically feasible the vehicles prove to be. Over time, despite initially high

R&D costs, UALVs should amortize their costs if procured in

sufficient numbers. Global Hawk and U-2 reconnaissance

platforms provide an example of R&D cost comparisons between unmanned and manned aircraft. 

R&D costs to first flight for Global Hawk and U-2 were $205

million and $243 million, respectively.18 Although not significantly less, Global Hawk costs are about 16 percent lower than

U-2 R&D costs. These figures, however, are significant when one

71

MANSKE
considers the time to first flight for Global Hawk took 41 months

while the U-2 took only eight months. Generally, the longer an

aircraft’s program development takes, the higher the R&D costs

incurred. Nevertheless, there are exceptions. 

For example, comparisons between the X-45 UCAV and the

attack/strike version of the F-16 reveal virtually little difference

in developmental costs. The cost to first flight for the UCAV was

$102 million and spanned a 35-month period, while the same

cost for the F-16 was $103 million and spanned a shorter 23-

month period—a difference of $1 million.19 

In an attempt to draw similar comparisons between manned

and unmanned airlift R&D costs, a useful place to start is with

our previous example—the C-17. C-17 R&D costs spanned a 14-

year period between 1981 and 1995 when the aircraft attained

IOC. In that period, developing the C-17 cost US taxpayers $5.6

billion. McDonnell Douglas funded an additional $1.7 billion—

bringing the total C-17 development cost to $7.3 billion.20

Because there are no UALV R&D costs to compare with the

C-17, the author makes a reasonable assumption, based on the

examples provided, that if UAV R&D costs are equal to or less

than their manned counterpart R&D costs, the program may receive funding.21 In other words, cost-confidence estimates for

UALVs must demonstrate “less-than-or-equal-to” R&D costs in

comparison to equivalent manned airlift capability. 

Procurement Costs

Procurement costs fund a weapon system and are separate

from R&D costs. When combined with the R&D cost, they constitute the acquisition costs. Though current unmanned aircraft tend to have lower procurement costs compared to their

manned counterparts, the comparison is not completely accurate. According to the UAV Roadmap, “any savings in procurement costs cited for UAVs by deleting the cockpit, its displays,

and survival gear is typically offset by the cost of similar

equipment in the UAV ground element.”22 In other words, consideration of support system costs must not be overlooked

when comparing costs. In the case of UALVs, however, the last

chapter posits that the best method for their employment is in

72

CADRE PAPER
formations with a manned airlifter, eliminating the need for

costly ground stations. 

Procurement costs, unlike R&D costs, remain relatively static

over the life cycle of a weapon system and are normally based

on a per platform price negotiated between the user and contractor. For example, the procurement cost of two Global

Hawks from the FY02 budget was $116.6 million, while three

were budgeted in FY03 for $170.8 million. This puts the per

vehicle price in each year at roughly $57 million.23 Unfortunately, similar procurement cost comparisons cannot be drawn

between J-UCAS and Joint Strike Fighters (JSF) since both

are still in the R&D phase.24

Another example is provided by the C-17. According to the

UAV Roadmap, “the aviation industry has long recognized the informal rule, based on historical experience, that the production

[read as procurement] cost of an aircraft is directly proportional

to its empty weight (before mission equipment is added). That

figure is some $1,500 per pound.”25 Additionally, from “10 to 15

percent of the manned aircraft’s empty weight” is comprised of

man-supportable mission equipment.26 By applying the cost-toweight methodology, a cost of $403,500 is derived from a

269,000-pound empty weight C-17. If the onboard equipment

supporting the human operators on the C-17 is removed, a cost

savings of approximately $40,000 to $61,000 results for the

same capability.27 When one considers that Congress appropriated over $16.6 billion for C-17 procurement between 1981

and 1995, the potential savings become readily apparent.28

UALV procurement costs depend on the sophistication of the vehicle technology. The more sophisticated the technology, the

higher the procurement cost. Before examining O&S costs, a

brief explanation of the UAV acquisition process is necessary. 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Acquisition

One of the keys to economical acquisition of UAVs is the

streamlined process by which the DOD acquires them. This

process, however, has not always been streamlined. Before the

DOD started procuring UAV weapon systems using the current acquisition concept technology demonstration (ACTD)

method, inefficiencies were rampant, causing costs to swell

73

MANSKE
unnecessarily. The ACTD process, examined in the following

section, avoided many of the anomalies that drove previous

UAV acquisition program costs up. 

Three major acquisition anomalies must be avoided for future UAV acquisition programs to succeed. The first is “requirements creep.”29 Also known as “gold-plating,” requirements creep means “trying to make the UAV do too much too

soon.”30 As mentioned in an earlier chapter, the Army’s Aquila

program suffered from requirements creep, eventually causing

its cancellation. Requirements creep occurs because additional requirements are added to the program throughout its

development phase until the costs become too great. Besides

making UAVs costly, piling on additional requirements eventually makes meeting them technically impossible.31 

Second, available UAV technologies should not be considered

capable technologies.32 Many times commercial off-the-shelf

technology, dubbed nondevelopmental, is incorporated into

UAVs without undergoing sufficient testing. Often, developers

consider these technologies mature enough for the UAV system that uses them, but GAO studies have shown otherwise.33

For example, the Army’s Hunter UAV stand-alone software,

data-link equipment, and engines met standards before installation. However, when installed in the UAV, the DOD failed

to allow enough time for smooth integration of these components, which eventually led to program cancellation.34 In past

UAV programs, available technologies were assumed mature

enough for program incorporation. Nevertheless, costs increased out of control, making the program cost prohibitive.

Extensive technology testing is required with real prototypes

before technologies are considered mature. 

Third, when UAVs are acquired, not only are the vehicles

themselves acquired but also an entire system of integrated

components, including the maintenance, training, air vehicle

operator stations, and ground operator manpower costs are

also acquired. The GAO, in a 1997 report on the DOD’s acquisition efforts, cautioned that potential UAV users and developers must remember that UAV systems are not cheap and that

prudent cost-efficiency should drive the development strategy.35

74

CADRE PAPER
Advanced Concept Technology

Demonstration Acquisition

The Air Force acquires its UAVs through ACTD acquisition.

Started in 1994, ACTDs “are intended to be quick-development

programs designed to get mature technologies into the hands

of users for early evaluation of operational utility.”36 ACTD acquisition facilitates the development, testing, and fielding of UAV

concept programs within a two-to-four year period. ACTDs begin

with the building of a technology demonstration prototype for

the users to evaluate. The prototype assists users and decision

makers in determining the best method for further vehicle

development.37

Although ACTD programs are improvements over previously

lengthy and costly acquisition strategies, they are fraught with

difficulties of their own. They are the same difficulties that

forced creation of ACTD acquisition in the first place. A CBO

report made the following observations regarding ACTD difficulties: “Because of the complexities of UAVs, . . . ACTD programs for those vehicles have had mixed success. Their rocky

progress suggests that some of the causes of inflated costs and

delayed schedules are beyond the ability of the ACTD process

to reform. Despite those problems, the ACTD approach appears

to have had some success in areas where past UAV programs

struggled, such as avoiding growth in operational requirements, improving cooperation among services and military

commands, and providing commanders with the opportunity

to try a new system in the field” before buying it.38 If ACTD programs fail to meet their developmental requirements, one of

four possible outcomes result: 

1. termination of the system, 

2. continued operation of only a few models, 

3. return of the system to the laboratory for continued development, or

4. transition to procurement.39 

Each outcome gives the user maximum flexibility for proceeding with operational requirements without investing enormous

75

MANSKE
sums of money or allocating significant time to a program not

delivering acceptable results.40 

The primary advantages of ACTDs are a shortened development cycle and a thorough determination of system utility before

the commitment of funds to full-rate procurement.41 These advantages are the cornerstone of the efficient financial utility of

UAVs, fostering improved cost-effectiveness over manned aircraft acquisition methods and strategies. 

Joint Unmanned Combat

Air Systems Acquisition

UALVs are likely to follow the same developmental path as

J-UCAS, owing to the unproven technology development similarities of both. Therefore, successful J-UCAS acquisition processes

should be replicated for other developing UAV programs. For

example, DARPA responsible, for J-UCAS development, “firmly

believes that the unit . . . cost of the UCAV [now J-UCAS] weapon

system will be one-third that of the Joint Strike Fighter” according to the director of the Pentagon’s Operational Test and

Evaluation Office.42 If comparable cost savings can be attained

with UALVs, three unmanned vehicles could be procured for the

price of one. The implications are clear. If an unmanned airlifter

with the capacity of the C-17 costs one-third the price of a

manned version, all other factors remaining equal, the DOD

would acquire dozens of them. Unfortunately, the comparison is

not that simple. Comparing the size and projected capabilities of

J-UCAS with JSFs is much easier than comparing C-17s with

unknown and unproven, unmanned airlift vehicles. 

How is the J-UCAS assuring its development and acquisition

costs stay one-third of the JSF? The approach, not unlike the

ACTD process use for Predator and Global Hawk, seeks to

shorten the normal acquisition cycle by merging the demonstration phase with a risk reduction phase to permit faster entry of

the vehicle into an acquisition program.43 The implementation of

this strategy will provide decision makers with the technical and

financial feasibility information required to make an informed

procurement decision.44 It is incumbent upon future UAV developers to extract the J-UCAS program lessons and apply them

to potential unmanned roles and missions.

76

CADRE PAPER
So far, UAV development, procurement, and acquisition costs

have been examined. Existing UAV acquisition methods and

processes demonstrate a fast, cost-effective approach to procurement of unmanned aircraft weapon systems. UAV O&S

costs offer an even greater potential for savings over manned aircraft than development, procurement, and acquisition costs.

Operations and Support Costs

O&S costs are associated with owning, operating, maintaining, and supporting a fielded DOD system.45 They include fuel,

pay for unit personnel, and pay for indirect support personnel.

Early studies of UCAV O&S costs suggest they will be 75 percent lower than F-16 and JSF O&S costs.46 Others have estimated the cost savings potential close to 90 percent as calculated for peacetime operations.47 The potential savings in O&S

costs in unmanned aircraft result from two observations: (1)

needed manned aircraft to fly costly training and pilot proficiency sorties and (2) some, if not the majority, of the training

in a UAV can be conducted without the vehicle actually in

flight.48 In other words, simulators offer training to pilots at

substantially lower costs than training in actual aircraft.49 

Though training costs are lower for unmanned aircraft, requirements creep contributes to increases.50 According to one

source, “in the past, the services were unwilling to continue

UAV programs when their costs grew beyond original estimates. . . . In addition, some analysts have noted the services

were too ambitious in the capabilities that they demanded of

past programs.”51 Obviously, if they spend more time augmenting manned aircraft operations, UAV O&S costs increase

appropriately. Before O&S costs are calculated with any accuracy, an investigation of UAV ground system support costs

must be done.52 

Training Costs and Pilot Retention

Unmanned training costs, like many of the other costs examined here, are also lower than comparable manned aircraft

training costs. Currently, Predator UAV operators accomplish

all initial and continuation training in simulators and do not use

77

MANSKE
expensive aircraft for their training. However, the comparisons

between unmanned and manned training costs are skewed because Predator UAV operators are selected from the ranks of

rated pilots steeped in airmanship. The airmanship accumulated by current Predator operators developed from years of

operational experience and at a price that has already been

paid. Because the demand for Predator operators is great, alternative training methods to increase their numbers faster

are being evaluated. One plan takes potential operators with

no flying experience and infuses them with a training program

that teaches them the minimum skills necessary to operate

the vehicles. It includes sending the future Predator operators

through an abbreviated version of undergraduate pilot training in which operator airmanship, gained previously through

years of active flying experience, will be lacking.53 In the future, technological advances in automation as well as improved flight controls and software upgrades will help offset

this lack of operator airmanship, which is normally deemed

essential for effective flight operations. A comparison of the

training costs between manned and unmanned programs illustrates distinct advantages for unmanned aircraft. 

One way to illustrate the distinct advantage of unmanned

aircraft is to compare Predator UAV training costs directly with

Specialized Undergraduate Pilot Training (SUPT) costs. SUPT

is the method initially used to train USAF pilots. The FY00

cost of putting a newly trained pilot through a year of USAF

SUPT was $472,920.54 This figure included flying hours, manpower costs, student pay, nonpersonnel, and command-support

costs.55 However, more costs are incurred from training required in the follow-on weapon system. For example, it costs

an additional $129,316 to train a C-17 copilot.56 There are numerous other costs implied in making a pilot fully qualified

and mission-ready, such as mobility, life support, aircrew

chemical defense, aircrew tactics, and continuation training

costs, to name a few.57 UAV operators do not receive these

kinds of training; therefore, these costs are not incurred. Another important cost consideration, particularly with airlifters,

is that there are multiple crewmembers onboard essential to

the mission. The cost to train and equip them adds expenses

78

CADRE PAPER
beyond single operator programs.58 The complexities of the

current Predator training contract makes it difficult to give an

exact cost for each individual operator.59 However, a proposal

by Air Combat Command projects initial Predator operator training costs, under a nonpilot training program, to be $12,000 per

operator.60 

Simple training cost comparisons, however, do not paint a

complete picture. Unmanned aircraft reduce the need to offer

pilot bonuses while also reducing the need for pilots, of which the

Air Force has a shortage. The manned aircraft community suffers from retention problems not resident in the UAV operator

community. The addition of UALVs would alleviate USAF leadership struggles to retain aircraft pilots. Air Force data indicates

that 78 percent of pilots who separated from the USAF in FY01

were not eligible for retirement. This is despite the Air Force’s

improved aviator continuation pay (ACP) incentives over the last

several years amounting to the “most robust compensation program to date.”61 These incentives include up-front payment increases from between $100,000 to $150,000 and increases in

annual bonuses from $12,000 to $25,000. Pilots could also

choose from varying service commitment lengths. Yet, even ACP

acceptance rates among eligible pilots plunged to an Air

Force–wide low of only 18 percent.62 This figure represented a

mere 470 out of 2,629 total USAF pilots eligible to accept the

bonus.63 These are disheartening figures considering the Air

Force has increased flight-training rates and raised the active

duty service commitment length to 10 years from eight. Six years

ago, the pilot retention situation became acute. In 1998, “efforts

left the USAF 648 pilots short of its 13,986 [pilot] requirements.”64 By 2007, the USAF will be approximately 2,300 pilots

short.65 Figure 3 illustrates the nature of the shortage. 

What does the preceding examination represent in terms of

training cost savings and unmanned airlift? It means the

USAF will spend a large amount of money to train pilots

through costly increases in pilot production and attempt to retain them through expensive incentive programs that statistics indicate do little to keep them. Unmanned aircraft potentially reduce the USAF dependence on pilots while reducing

funds required to train the operators. Additionally, overall

79

MANSKE
pilot retention incentives are reduced drastically because the

USAF will require greater than 50 percent fewer pilots, thus

negating the need to appropriate costly financial incentives. 

Life-Cycle Costs

Life-cycle costs consider a summation of all the cost concepts

examined thus far and are concerned primarily with the longterm amortization of weapon system costs. As is the case with

the other costs examined in this chapter, life-cycle costs are

trimmed by removing the aircrew from the aircraft.66 Analysts

have attempted to quantify these cost savings, but as mentioned

earlier, it is a difficult task. Prudent cost management practices,

especially in the earlier stages of unmanned aircraft ACTD acquisition, will ensure life-cycle costs remain manageable.67 

Thus far, this chapter covered unmanned aircraft and their

cost advantages over manned aircraft systems. The following

section examines additional generalized savings.

80

CADRE PAPER

Pilot Requirements

Pilot Inventory

Fiscal Year

Number of Pilots

14,500

14,000

13,500

13,000

12,500

12,000

11,500

97 02 07 12 17

l

Reprinted from: William W. Taylor, Craig Moore, and C. Robert Roll Jr., The Air Force Pilot Shortage: A Crisis for

Operational Units? (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2000), 5, http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MRI204/.

Figure 3. Predicted USAF pilot requirements versus pilot inventory
Other Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Savings

UAVs offer many other generalized cost savings over manned

aircraft. One results from the absence of the physical cockpit

and all that it houses. In place of the cockpit, UALV computer

workstations could be equipped in the cargo compartment of the

manned “mother ship” airlifter.68 Depending on the level of sophistication and automation, there are tremendous costs associated with today’s manned aircraft glass cockpits. One French

air force officer wrote, “in the last generation of manned aircraft,

the cockpit design and pilot interface requires a considerable

amount of resources and expensive electronic and computer

devices. This, combined with pilot life support equipment, can

represent almost 30 percent of the development and operational cost of the aircraft.”69 Noguier noted that removing the

pilot also removed the possibility of him being taken prisoner

or becoming a casualty of war and resulted in a reduction in

search and rescue forces.70 Another advantage results from a decrease in base infrastructure needed to support manned aircraft

operations (altitude chambers, life support organizations, etc.).

Yet, other factors associated with UAVs overshadow these

generalized savings over manned aircraft. One is the high cost

of UAVs that are typically produced in small numbers. Small

production runs do not allow high development and life-cycle

costs to be amortized favorably. Predator will likely be an exception, as 22 were budgeted for FY03, 16 in FY02, and seven

in FY01.71 These vehicles should pay for themselves quickly

because the acquisition costs will be amortized over a larger

fleet. Another factor to consider is that UAVs have extremely

high accident rates over manned aircraft, which is accounted

for by the very nature of the mission many perform. Yet, unmanned airlifters cannot afford to be destroyed because the

cargo aboard the vehicle is essential to mission accomplishment.

General Unmanned Airlift Vehicle Savings

C-17 costs constitute a large portion of the defense budget.

The DOD’s 2003 budget request for C-17 procurement, including O&S costs for 12 aircraft, was $3.826 billion.72 That

calculation put the per price procurement for each aircraft at

81

MANSKE
roughly $318 million. The RDT&E costs accompanying procurement topped out at $157.2 million.73 UALV costs in these

areas must beat that price while providing comparable cargo

capabilities if the Air Force is to seriously consider UALVs. 

Although the Air Force committed to procure 60 more C-17s

in 2002, it is uncertain whether or not the Air Force would

have made this commitment prior to the 9/11 terrorist attacks

on America. The constrained fiscal environment before that

time focused acquisition priority on other platforms such as

the F-22, creating a budget battle to fund other important capabilities like airlift.74A situational example of UALV cost savings below illustrates this point. 

Assuming UALVs have defined operational requirements

that are technologically feasible and applying the same cost

differential between J-UCAS and JSFs (three to one) as noted

earlier, the USAF could potentially save trillions of dollars purchasing UALVs. For the sake of argument, let us assume all 60

C-17s contracted in 2002 were procured for $318 million

each. Applying the three-for-one cost difference could either

procure the same number of airplanes (60) for one-third of the

price ($106 million) or for $318 million procure 180 UALVs.

The C-17 can transport roughly 170,000 pounds.75 To be conservative, one may assume that the UALV has the same capacity

as the Boeing ATT concept aircraft previously mentioned—

80,000 pounds.76 The total capacity of the 60 C-17s equates to

10.2 million pounds. If the DOD acquired 180 UALVs, their

combined capacity would be 14.4 million pounds. This results

in roughly 43 percent more capacity for the same amount of

funding. Total capacity increases significantly if the available

UALV capacity is increased. There is one last potential cost advantage of UALVs to examine. 

Unmanned Airlift Vehicle Storage

and Leasing

Because the DOD would probably employ UALVs primarily

during contingency operations when airlift demand peaks,

they might otherwise remain idle, except for those designated

or required to retain system proficiency.77 Due to this decreased

usage rate and the need to keep UALVs cost-effective, creative

82

CADRE PAPER
ways of maintaining low costs must be entertained. One possible

solution is through long-term storage. Much like the J-UCAS,

which will only be used when required to perform its mission,

UALVs could be stored until ready for use. UALVs will potentially merit their greatest savings over manned airlift when not

in use. This will keep maintenance and life-cycle costs low

while insuring long-term viability. 

As an alternative to long-term storage, the Air Force might

consider leasing the vehicles to cargo companies needing lowcost unmanned airlift to augment their cargo transport operations. In times of high use, these vehicles would revert to Air

Force ownership for immediate use. In much the same way as

CRAF partners are called to serve the nation, a similar call-up

for UALVs from commercial lessees would obligate their return.

This cooperative arrangement would provide considerable savings for the Air Force and the commercial lessee.

Regarding the J-UCAS program, storage should result in a

savings of 80 percent of life-cycle costs.78 This is a key factor in

reducing the overall life-cycle costs of UAVs. For example, in the

war against terrorism in Afghanistan, the United States deployed

hundreds of tons of supplies daily to the region. The limiting

factor in achieving airlift capacity requirements in the region was

the numbers of aircraft and crewmembers. Storing the UALVs

when not in use would save on O&S costs. In the end, ULAVs

would serve as a cost-effective solution to US airlift shortfall

woes. 

Fleet Size

The DOD should consider a limited but significant number of

UALVs to complement the manned airlifter fleet. The number of

UALVs will depend on a host of factors, including airlift requirements forecast for the time UALVs will be fielded. The following

example illustrates a logical rationale for UALV fleet size. 

Many C-5s are likely to begin retiring based on forecast airframe structural service life estimates, near the end of the

midterm timeframe defined by this paper. It is unknown at this

time exactly how many aircraft will retire and when. However, for

the sake of argument, a reasonable assumption is that C-5s will

retire at the same rate as the most recent retiring strategic air83

MANSKE
lifter, the C-141. In 2000 there were approximately 108 C-141s

in the airlift force structure. By 2001 there were 93 and in the

out years of 2002–2005 the numbers were forecast to be 73,

56, 31, and 22, respectively.79 The average number of C-141s

retiring over this five-year period was expected to be 17.2 per

year. This aircraft retirement figure will now be applied to C-5

retirement. 

If the C-5 retires at a rate of 17.2 per year, a significant loss in

oversize and outsize airlift capability will result, requiring a replacement. The threshold airlift capability of the C-5, as stated

earlier, is 180,000 pounds.80 The threshold is the figure used to

compute aircraft MTM/D. Therefore, the loss of 17.2 C-5s per

year results in an annual loss of approximately 3.1 MTM/D and

over a five-year period a loss of approximately 15.5 MTM/D. This

means that replacement airlift capability must be fielded so that

wartime airlift requirements can be sufficiently met. Therefore,

based on the UALV effective payload capacity (threshold) range

between 100,000 and 160,000 pounds (as calculated in chap. 4),

a MRS-05 airlift requirement of 54.5 MTM/D (as mentioned in

chap. 3), and a fleet of 180 C-17s providing 20.1 MTM/D, a

UALV fleet size of between 87 and 139, procured at a rate of 20

to 31 per year will provide sufficient airlift capability to meet

wartime airlift requirements at their highest.81 

Summary

Estimating UAV program costs is a difficult task that takes

great care and judgment. This chapter illustrates that UA offers distinct cost advantages over manned aircraft. It began

with an examination of UAV funding and the defense budget

and progressed through a series of UAV program costs, including R&D, procurement, and acquisition costs. After that,

the ACTD and UCAV/J-UCAS acquisition processes were examined, demonstrating the merits and cost advantages of

quickly fielding UAVs in an effort to keep them affordable.

Next, O&S and training costs were examined, illustrating the

potential savings for UALVs. Finally, pilot retention issues,

life-cycle costs, and other unmanned aircraft savings were reviewed with respect to UALVs. In every instance, unmanned

aircraft, and possibly UALVs, demonstrated the potential ability

84

CADRE PAPER
to possess costs equal or better than their manned counterparts,

answering the research subquestion, “are the concepts costeffective?” in the affirmative. 

Notes

1. Noguier, “Next Mission Unmanned,” 105.

2. Office of the Secretary of Defense, QDR, 68. 

3. Senate, Statement of Gen Charles T. Robertson, Jr. USAF on Strategic

and Tactical Lift in the 21st Century: Hearings before the Subcommittee on

Seapower of the Committee On Armed Services. 

4. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary.

5. Fellows et al., “Airlift 2025,” 14. 

6. Office of the Secretary of Defense, QDR, 51. 

7. O’Reilly, “Uninhabited Air Vehicles,” 19; and CBO, Options for Enhancing

the Department of Defense’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Programs, 56.

8. Svitak, “Pentagon Details Extra Money for War on Terror,” 4.

9. Ibid.

10. Glade, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 21. 

11. Office of the Joint Staff, MRS-05, 5. These figures illustrate that no C-5

aircraft would go through the Reliability Enhancement and Re-Engineering

Program modification.

12. CBO, Options for Enhancing the DODs UAV Programs, 14.

13. DOD, Program Acquisition Costs by Weapon System, 20. Hereafter

cited as Defense Budget for Fiscal Year 2003.

14. Barry and Zimet, “UCAVs,” 1–8.

15. AT&L Knowledge Sharing System, Defense Acquisition Deskbook,

http://akss.dau.mil/jsp/default.jsp. 

16. Armitage, Unmanned Aircraft, 100–101.

17. Barry and Zimet, “UCAVs,” 1–8.

18. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Roadmap 2000–2025, 53. Hereafter cited as UAV Roadmap. These figures

are adjusted to FY00 dollars.

19. Ibid.

20. Battershell, The DoD C-17 versus the Boeing 777, 84.

21. This assumes the unmanned aircraft possesses equivalent capabilities to its manned counterpart.

22. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, ii. 

23. Defense Budget for Fiscal Year 2003, 20. 

24. Ibid., 19–20. 

25. Office of the Secretary of Defense, UAV Roadmap, 53. 

26. Ibid.

27. The staff of the Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and Brig Gen

Ted F. Bowlds, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Airlift and Tanker aircraft, interview by the author via email, 12 April 2002. These systems and

equipment include the flight compartment; buffet and galley; lavatories;

85

MANSKE
oxygen system; water and waste system including potable water stores; crew

and passenger seats; passenger, crew, and emergency exit doors; and the

crew escape and safety hatches (and associated equipment), among others.

However, tradeoffs in weight may result if additional sensors, automated

cargo handling systems, and so forth are added to the aircraft empty weight. 

28. Battershell, DoD C-17 versus the Boeing 777, 85. By applying the “10

to 15 percent” rule, UALV procurement savings could potentially amount to

$1.67–$2.5 billion.

29. Walden, “The Use of Modeling and Simulation in the Systems Engineering of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” par. 1.0.

30. Morris, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 5. 

31. Walden, “Modeling and Simulation,” par. 1.0.

32. GAO, National Security and International Affairs Division, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, 6–7.

33. Ibid., 7.

34. Ibid., 9.

35. Ibid., 7.

36. Jones, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 43. 

37. CBO, Options for Enhancing the Department of Defense’s Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Programs, 25. 

38. Ibid., 21.

39. Ibid., 23.

40. Ibid.

41. Jones, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” 43. 

42. Wilson, “Pilots! Unman Your Airplanes!” 3692; and DARPA-USAF,

“Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) Demonstration Program: UCAV

Overview,” 3. The UCAV program makes this claim based on “an 80 percent

cost confidence in the affordability projections.”

43. DARPA-USAF, “UCAV Program Overview,” 4–5. 

44. Ibid.

45. DOD, Commercial Operations and Support Savings Initiative, Frequently Asked Questions. 

46. Flade, “Teaching a New Dog Old Tricks,” 8; Reinhardt, James, and

Flanagan, “Future Employment of UAVs,” 38; Wilson, “Pilots! Unman Your

Airplanes!,” 3692; and DARPA-USAF, “Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle

(UCAV) Program Overview,” 2.

47. Reinhardt et al., 38.

48. USAF-SAB, UAV Technologies and Combat Operations, par. 4-6.

49. Up to 95 percent of peacetime manned aircraft training occurs in the

aircraft. 

50. CBO, Options for Enhancing the Department of Defense’s Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Programs, 32. 

51. Ibid. 

52. Barry and Zimet, “UCAVs,” 1–8.

53. Maj Shawn D. Nelson, HQ Air Combat Command, Predator UAV action officer, interview by the author, 11 April 2002. 

86

CADRE PAPER
54. Mr. Mark Parsons, Air Education and Training Command, interview

by the author 11 April 2002.

55. Ibid.

56. Ibid. FY00 dollars.

57. Tobin, “Piloting the USAF’s UAV Fleet,” 17. 

58. As noted at the beginning of this chapter, 30 to 40 percent of any aircraft program costs were personnel expenses. This percentage increases as

the number of crewmembers operating the aircraft increase (e.g., navigators,

additional pilots, flight engineers, loadmasters, scanners, and flying crew

chiefs).

59. Nelson interview, 12 April 2002. The FY02 contract cost was approximately $1.7 million and included a full year’s worth of training for 36 basic

vehicle operators, 16 instructor operator upgrades, 48 payload sensor operators, and 20 instructor sensor operator upgrades. Divided evenly, though

by no means an accurate measure, the per operator cost comes out to

$14,242. 

60. Hoffman, “Non-SUPT Pilots to Control UAVs.” 

61. Slagel, “Point Paper on Mobility Pilot Retention.”

62. Ibid. FY01 data reflects all eligible USAF pilots. Rates for AMC pilots

mirror the USAF rate at 18 percent (122 accepted of 679 total). 

63. Ibid. 

64. Flade, “Teaching a New Dog Old Tricks,” 7. 

65. Taylor, Moore, and Roll, The Air Force Pilot Shortage, 5.

66. Tirpak, “The Robotic Air Force,” 71; and Noguier, 105.

67. CBO, Options for Enhancing the Department of Defense’s Unmanned

Aerial Vehicle Programs, 33. 

68. DARPA-USAF, “UCAV Program Overview,” 18. The UCAV CONOPS

employs a mission control system (operator station) driven by a 1553 data

bus and operated through a 100 megabits per second network switch and

global positioning system time server. The UCAV CONOPS also stated that

operators will monitor/control multiple UCAVs, which would amount to additional manpower savings.

69. Noguier, “Next Mission Unmanned,” 105.

70. Ibid.

71. DOD, Defense Budget for Fiscal Year 2003, 20. 

72. Ibid., 12. 

73. Wall and Fulghum, “Military Budget Boost Yields Marginal Change,”

24.

74. The FY03 defense budget request totaled $379 billion—an increase of

nearly 20 percent over the FY02 budget and at the time, the second largest

annual increase in 20 years. 

75. Air Force Link, “USAF C-17.” http//www.af.mil/news/factsheets/C_

17_Globemaster_III.html.

76. Boeing Company Phantom Works, “Advanced Theater Transport Fact

Sheet.”

87

MANSKE
77. DARPA-USAF, “UCAV Program Overview,” 28. The UCAV CONOPS

stated that UCAVs would be placed in long-term storage when not in use to

lower maintenance and life-cycle costs. 

78. Ibid., 4.

79. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 C-141 Roadmap (U). (Secret).

Information extracted is unclassified.

80. AMC, Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 C-5 Roadmap (U). (Secret). Information extracted is unclassified. The threshold figure of 180,000 pounds

is based on a range of 3,200 nautical miles.

81. This figure assumes CRAF provides 20.5 MTM/D and that 180 C-17s

provide 20.1 MTM/D. The rate of 20 to 31 UALV per year is based on the retirement of 17.2 C-5s per year (which provide an aggregate of approximately

3.1 MTM per year). Lastly, fleet size will vary depending on the existing airlift requirement, CRAF commitment, and maintenance state of the C-5 and

the C-17.

88

CADRE PAPER
Chapter 6

Analysis, Conclusions, and Implications

Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the

character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur. 

—Guilio Douhet 

Analysis

The author began this paper by asking if there is a suitable

role for unmanned airlifters in the USAF. A framework from

historian Michael Howard was used as a way to break the

question down into three subquestions. Each of the subquestions examined an important factor essential to determine if a

role could exist for unmanned airlifters in the USAF. The subquestions follow:

1. What operational requirements justify unmanned airlifters?

2. Are current and emerging technologies likely to meet

these potential operational requirements?

3. Are the concepts cost-effective?

Each subquestion was examined in-depth using primary and

secondary evidence for determining the answer to the research

question. Before the examination of each subquestion, however,

a justification for UA was established under the guise of the

US strategic airlift shortfall. 

For more than 20 years, and perhaps longer, the United

States has experienced an airlift shortfall. Several mobility requirements studies commissioned by the DOD over this period

have openly acknowledged and quantified the nature of the

shortage. Evidence was presented from the highest levels of

the government and military via national strategic documents

such as the NSS and NMS, characterizing airlift as the cornerstone of national and military power. Yet, the DOD has done

89
little to ensure the nation has enough airlift to meet stated

wartime requirements. 

Although operational requirements do not presently exist for

UA, unified combatant commanders and defense planners

must first be made aware of its potential. Defense planners, for

sound reasons, only think about capabilities available in the

present with little regard paid to future requirements and

capabilities. Furthermore, if it could be proven to unified combatant commanders that they could get sufficient airlift capability to fulfill wartime requirements in their areas of responsibility and get it less expensively, they would likely be

interested. 

Experience with unproven aircraft concepts implies a high

reluctance on the part of the DOD and senior military leaders

to commit to programs that show little near-term prospects of

success. In the examination of airlift requirements, the author

found that the DOD would lack sufficient capability should it

have to implement the limits of the NMS outlined in the QDR.

Because airlift has historically been an under-funded requirement, it was observed that alternatives to expensive airlift procurement programs providing equivalent capabilities at professed savings would merit DOD attention. Lack of sufficient

aircrew, progress in emerging unmanned aircraft technologies, and increases in UAV R&D funding all provide the impetus to investigate the UA concept. Therefore, there must be reasonable assurances that UA could demonstrate a requisite level

of technological feasibility before DOD officials commit to its procurement and acquisition.

Once operational requirements were established for UA, the

next question to be answered was, “Are current and emerging

technologies critical to UA likely to meet potential operational requirements?” The 2001 UAV Roadmap defined sufficient criteria

necessary to evaluate technologies essential for the feasibility of

any DOD unmanned aircraft program. These criteria—reliability,

survivability, and autonomy—were adopted in this paper as the

framework for analyzing the measures of merit, technologies,

concepts, and support systems critical to the success of UA program. The examination revealed that UALVs should conceptually

be employed in formations of up to six vehicles controlled and

90

CADRE PAPER
monitored by a manned airlifter “mother ship” housing mission

control stations in the cargo compartment. The number of vehicles employed in the formation will undoubtedly be driven by

operator span of control and aircraft maximum-on-the-ground

considerations at operating airfields. Each operator could potentially be responsible for monitoring the flight progress of multiple

UALVs. These determinations were made on the basis that airspace and air traffic management procedures cannot yet adequately accommodate autonomously employed UAVs through

controlled airspace shared by manned aircraft, military or

civilian. The prognosis was made that within the next decade air

traffic management procedures might indeed be able to support

autonomous UAV operations without difficulty. 

The author determined that UA technological feasibility is

dependent on strictly defined capability requirements, which

the DOD must clearly articulate if the UA program is to have

a chance of succeeding. For example, if a requirement to incorporate a fully ACHS is required onboard unmanned airlifters,

timelines must be established at which point a defined capability demonstration occurs. The degree of success or failure in

meeting demonstration goals will determine how the program

will proceed. Extensive R&D is required for many of the technologies examined. However, technological development will

proceed along evolutionary lines rather than revolutionary

ones. One of the biggest technological hurdles to cross with

UA is the issue of control mechanisms required to physically

direct the movements of the vehicles. Whether control will be

exercised remotely from ground stations or through technology

similar to that used for existing formation station keeping is a

question for developers and users. Employing airlifters in a constellation of aircraft simplifies command and control of the vehicles while drastically reducing difficult airspace management

problems associated with integrating manned and unmanned

aircraft in the same airspace.

Table 3 in chapter 4 summarizes the results of various measures of merit and concepts and provides a total technological

feasibility estimate. The results suggest that an UA program is

technologically feasible in the short-term to midterm, that is

by 2022. Given clear operational requirements and borrowing

91

MANSKE
from the best practices gained from successful UAV ACTD programs, it is conceivable to develop and design UALVs to augment the USAF manned airlifter fleet.

Finally, the overriding consideration behind any new defense program will be the issue of cost. Whereas current thinking about UAVs centers on the reduction of risk as a driving

factor behind development, reduction of cost is the strongest

argument for pursuing UA. Cost comparisons between

manned reconnaissance aircraft and ISR UAVs, manned fighters and developing J-UCAS, and manned airlifters and notional UALVs revealed significant cost advantages in favor of

unmanned platforms. Therefore, assuming technological feasibility of UA, a comparison of costs between manned and unmanned airlifters was extrapolated to reveal cost advantages

of UA. In nearly every financial category, unmanned aircraft

displayed the potential to meet or better the acquisition and

life-cycle costs of manned aircraft. Initial projected UALV lifecycle costs should strive to be less than two-thirds that of

manned aircraft life-cycle costs. This will allow for what UAV

development history has shown, unanticipated cost growth. If

cost growth extends beyond the costs of manned airlift programs, a reevaluation of the UALV program should be performed to ensure the effort is worth the investment. Even if

costs grow, technological progress in the program will likely be

applicable to other UAV roles and missions, thus advancing

unmanned programs at-large. Keys to the financial capability

of unmanned aircraft development programs of the future will

be the avoidance of requirements creep, establishing firm

timelines for the demonstration of key and critical technologies, and eventually, a potential to amortize high development

costs over the life of a fleet. ACTD practices will allow potential UAV users to determine the viability and feasibility of UA

with only a marginal up-front investment made to the program.

Conclusion

The author began this paper investigating whether a suitable

role could exist for unmanned airlifters in the USAF. Evidence

disclosed that in the short-term to midterm time frame, UA

92

CADRE PAPER
concepts and technologies would reach levels of maturity worth

pursuing at this time. 

A chronic strategic airlift shortfall exists if the US Strategic airlift forces are not properly sized to meet the needs of the NMS,

which results in unnecessary risk to deploying troops ordered to

distant theaters of conflict. UA offers the potential to reduce the

airlift shortfall gap while reducing expensive training costs of

flight personnel required to perform the mission. Given operational requirements and a mission need, the technological feasibility of UA is assured if directed efforts to improve existing technologies are made. Present and future potential characteristics

of UAVs would suggest that unmanned aircraft are very likely to

be used in future operations.1 By capitalizing on the explosion of

existing and emerging unmanned technology with the need for

viable, cost-effective solutions to the airlift shortfall, the potential

for unmanned airlifters is promising.

The conclusions of this study are,

1. There is an operational requirement for UALVs,

2. UALVs are technologically feasible within the next 20

years, and

3. UALVs offer a cost-effective solution to meeting the

chronic shortfall in strategic airlift capability.

These findings are provisional and must be validated by more

in-depth investigation. However, there is enough analysis behind them to make them strongly suggestive. At this point, one

can only hope that continued thought about needed UAVs encourages defense officials, decision makers, and industry to

consider future possibilities with an open mind-set. If not, this

effort has at least broadened thinking about the alternatives

to solve future defense issues. America needs alternatives to

complement and augment expensive manned airlift to meet

the strategic airlift shortfall.

For the ideas on the preceding pages to entertain reality,

UAVs must surmount the current perception that they are only

capable of successfully fulfilling and complementing the ISR

role, and perhaps the air superiority and suppression of enemy

air defenses roles. Planting the seeds now and considering what

93

MANSKE
is possible in the future is a requirement for making it real. UA

has sufficiently answered each research subquestion and in

doing so has answered the primary research question: there unequivocally exists a role for unmanned airlifters in the Air Force. 

Implications

The above conclusions suggest the following implications for

various DOD agencies:

1. The DOD or their executive agents must perform a detailed

cost-benefit analysis of all the factors examined in this

paper to determine if the findings of this study are indeed

valid. Afterwards, employ the best practices and lessons

learned from the J-UCAS and other successful UAV programs to embark upon a moderate course of development.

2. Charge DARPA with the responsibility of investigating

the feasibility of concepts for UA. As a conduit between

USTRANSCOM, United States Joint Forces Command,

the Air Force, the UAV Battlelab, and industry, DARPA

should determine the viability of UA and assist in determining if it has potential to augment current airlift

forces. Ensure technological integration efforts address

the problems of past programs in which UAVs experienced uncontrollable cost growth and requirements

creep.

3. War-game scenarios with unmanned airlifters. Establish a

feasible CONOPS and employment in war games that exposes the strengths and weaknesses of UA for consideration in each phase of design, development, testing, evaluation, acquisition, and fielding.

Notes

1. Noguier, “Next Mission Unmanned,” 113.

94

CADRE PAPER
Glossary

ACH automated cargo handling system

ACP aviator continuation pay 

ACTD acquisition concept technology demonstration 

AI artificial intelligence

airlifter plane used in the aerial movement of cargo,

supplies and equipment

AMC Air Mobility Command

ATT advanced theater transport

BURU Bottom-Up Review Update

C3I command, control, communication, and

information

CJCS Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

CMDS countermeasures dispense sets

CBO Congressional Budget Office

CONOPS concept of operations

CONUS continental United States

CRAF Civil Reserve Air Fleet

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DGPS differential GPS

DPG Defense Planning Guide

DOD Department of Defense

EO electro-optical

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY fiscal year

GAO General Accounting Office

GPS global positioning system

HLS homeland security

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IOC initial operational capability

IPL integrated priority lists

IR infrared

ISR intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance

JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff

95
JPALS Joint Precision Approach and Landing

System

JPO-UAV Joint Program Office for Unmanned Aerial

Vehicles

JSF Joint Strike Fighter

J-UCAS Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems

LAIRCM large aircraft infrared countermeasures

Lasercom ground-based laser communications

MANPAD man-portable air defense

MITL man in the loop

MQW multiple quantum well (laser communications)

MRS Mobility Requirements Study

MRS-05 Mobility Requirements Study 2005

MTM/D “million ton miles per day”

MTW major theater war

NAS National Airspace System

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NAVAIR- Naval Air Systems Command (Also called

SYSCOM NAVAIR)

NMS National Military Strategy 

NSS National Security Strategy

O&S operations and support

QDR Quadrennial Defense Review

R&D research and development

RAIM receiver autonomous integrity monitoring

RDT&E research, development, training, and

evaluation

RF radio frequency

RPV remotely piloted vehicle

SAB Scientific Advisory Board

SAR synthetic aperture radar

SATS Small Aircraft Transportation System

SEAD suppression of enemy air defense

SUPT Specialized Undergraduate Pilot Training 

96
Tbps terabits/second

TCAS traffic collision and avoidance system

TPSA technology, process, and system attributes

UA unmanned airlift

UALV unmanned airlift vehicle

UAV unmanned aerial vehicle

UCAV unmanned combat aerial vehicle

USTRANS- United States Transportation Command

COM

UT unmanned transport

VHF very high frequency

97
Bibliography

Air Force Doctrine Document (AFDD) 2-1. Air Warfare, 22

January 2000. http://afpubs.hq.af.mil/pubfiles/af/dd/

afdd2-1/afdd2-1.pdf.

Air Force Link. “C-17 Globemaster III.” http://www.af.mil/

news/factsheets/factsheet.asp?FsID=86. 

———. “C-5 Galaxy.” http://www.af.mil/news/factsheets/fact

sheet.asp?FsID=84.

Air Force Manual (AFMAN) 1-1. Basic Aerospace Doctrine of the

United States Air Force, March 1992, 15.

Air Force Research Laboratory. Automated Aerial Refueling

(AAR), 26 March 2002, slide 3.

Air Mobility Command. Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 C-141

Roadmap, October 2001. https://amc.scott.af.mil/xp/

xpx/STRATPLAN2002FOUO/Roadmap/C-141_Road

map.pdf.

———. Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 C-5 Roadmap, October

2001. https://amc.scott.af.mil/xp/xpx/STRATPLAN2002

FOUO/Roadmap/C-5_Roadmap.pdf.

———. Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Commander’s Intent, October 2001. https://amc.scott.af.mil/xp/xpx/STRATPLAN

2002FOUO/Commanders_Intent.htm.

———. Air Mobility Strategic Plan 2002 Executive Summary,

October 2001. https://amc.scott.af.mil/xp/xpx/STRAT

PLAN2002FOUO/Executive_Summary.htm.

Allvin, David W. Paradigm Lost: Rethinking Theater Airlift to

Support the Army After Next. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, September 2000. http://research.maxwell.

af.mil/Papers/special_collection/CAD-PAP/allvin.pdf. 

Armitage, Michael. Unmanned Aircraft. London: Brassey’s Defence Publishers, 1988. 

Barry, Charles L. and Elihu Zimet. “UCAVs: Technological, Policy,

and Operational Challenges.” Defense Horizons, October

2001. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/DefHor/DH3/DH3.htm.

Battershell, A. Lee. The DoD C-17 versus the Boeing 777. Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, October 1999.

Biass, Eric H. and Roy Braybrook. “The UAV as a Sensor Platform: From Pioneer to Global Hawk.” Armada International,

October–November 2001.

99
Boeing Company Phantom Works. “Advanced Theater Transport

Fact Sheet,” 22 November 2001. 

Budd, John T. “Unmanned Airlift: How Should We Proceed?”

Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, April

2002. 

Bush, George W. “Statement of the president, 15 September

2001.” Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents 37, no.

38 (24 September 2001).

Chun, Clayton K. S. Aerospace Power in the Twenty-First Century. Colorado Springs, Colo. and Maxwell AFB, Ala.: United

States Air Force Academy in cooperation with Air University

Press, July 2001. 

Clark, Richard M. Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicles: Airpower

by the People, For the People, But Not with the People. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, August 2000. 

Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Options for Enhancing the

Department of Defense’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Programs. Washington, D.C.: CBO, September 1998. http://

www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=917&sequence=0.

Cook, Nick. “Europe’s Dilemma: Manned or Unmanned?” Interavia, June 2000. 

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)-USAF.

“Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle System Demonstration

Program: UCAV Program Overview.” 28 November 2001.

Department of Defense. “Commercial Operations and Support

Savings Initiative Frequently Asked Questions.” http://

www.acq.osd.mil/es/dut/cossi/faqs.html. 

———. “Defense Planning Guidance: Planning Construct.” News

Transcripts. DefenseLINK, 10 May 2002. http://www.defense

link.mil/transcripts/2002/t05102002_t0510dpg. html.

———. “President Announces Details Of Wartime Defense Budget.” News Release no. 046-02, DefenseLINK, 4 February

2002. http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2002/b0204

2002_bt046-02.html.

———. Program Acquisition Costs by Weapon System: Department of Defense Budget for Fiscal Year 2003. http://www.

dtic.mil/comptroller/fy2003budget/fy2003weabook.pdf.

Evans, Jennifer, William Hodge, Judy Liebman, Claire J. Tomlin,

and Bradford W. Parkinson. “Flight Tests of an Unmanned

Air Vehicle with Integrated Multi-Antenna GPS Receiver and

100
IMU: Towards a Testbed for Distributed Control and Formation Flight.” Stanford University, 1999. http://sun-valley.

stanford.edu/~tomlin/papers/longps99.pdf.

Federation of American Scientists. “Large Aircraft Infrared

Countermeasures (LAIRCM).” http://www.fas.org/man/

dod-101/sys/a/equip/laircm.htm.

Fellows, James A., Michael H. Harner, Jennifer L. Pickett, and

Michael F. Welch. “Airlift 2025: The First with the Most.”

Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University, August 1996. http://

www.au.af.mil/au/2025/volume2/chap04/v2c4-1.htm.

Flade, John W. “Teaching a New Dog Old Tricks: Replacing Man

with Artificial Intelligence in Combat Aircraft.” Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: US Army War College, 1 April 2000. 

General Accounting Office (GAO), Comptroller General. DOD’s

Use of Remotely Piloted Vehicle Technology Offers Opportunities For Saving Lives and Dollars. GAO Report MASAD8l-20. Washington, D.C.: GAO, 3 April l98l.

GAO, National Security and International Affairs Division. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: DOD’s Acquisition Efforts. GAO

Report T-NSIAD-97-138. Washington, D.C.: GAO, 9 April

1997.

———. Military Readiness: Air Transport Capability Falls Short

of Requirements. GAO Report NSIAD-00-135. Washington,

D.C.: GAO, 22 June 2000.

GAO, Defense Capabilities and Management Division. Military

Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U.S. Air Transport

Capability. GAO Report GAO-01-495R. Washington, D.C.:

GAO, 16 March 2001.

Glade, David. “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Implications for Military Operations.” Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University, July

2001. 

Hazdra, Richard J. Air Mobility: The Key to the United States National Security Strategy. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University

Press, August 2001.

Herskovitz, Don. “A Sampling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.”

Journal of Electronic Defense 24, no. 3 (March 2001).

Hoffman, James C. “Non-SUPT Pilots to Control UAVs.” Bullet

background paper, Headquarters Air Combat Command,

19 April 2000.

101
House. Statement of Gen Charles T. Robertson Jr., USAF. Readiness Impact of Operations in Kosovo: Hearings before the

Subcommittee on Military Readiness of the Committee on

Armed Services. 106th Cong. 1st sess., 1999.

Howard, Michael. “Military Science in an Age of Peace.” Journal

of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies,

March 1974.

Hutcheson, Keith A. Air Mobility: The Evolution of Global

Reach. Beltsville, Md.: Point One Inc., 1999. 

Joint Chiefs of Staff. National Military Strategy of the United

States of America: Shape, Respond, Prepare Now: A Military

Strategy for a New Era. Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1997.

Joint Publication (JP) 1-02. Department of Defense Dictionary

of Military and Associated Terms, 12 April 2002. http://

www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/doddict/.

JP 3-55.1. Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, 27 August 1993. http://www.

dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/new_pubs/jp3_55_1.pdf.

Jones, Christopher A. “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: An Assessment of Historical Operations and Future Possibilities.”

Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, March

1997. http://research.maxwell.af.mil/papers/student/ay

1997/acsc/97-0230D.pdf. 

Jumper, John. “Corona South 2002.” Chief’s Sight Picture. 7

March 2002. http://www.afpc.randolph.af.mil/pubaffairs/

comm/comm2002/03/Mar ch7/Editorial.htm.

Kaufman, Gail. “Predator UAV Operators take Distance Learning to Challenging Heights.” Defense News, 26 November–

2 December 2001.

Kosiak, Steven and Elizabeth Heeter. “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Current Plans and Prospects for the Future.” Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 11 July 1997. http://www.csbaonline.org.

Larm, Dennis. “Expendable Remotely Piloted Vehicles for

Strategic Offensive Airpower Role.” Maxwell AFB, Ala.:

School of Advanced Airpower Studies, June 1996. 

Levins, Harry. “Transportation Command’s Chief Emphasizes

the Need for More C-17 Cargo Planes.” St. Louis Post–

Dispatch, 2 February 2002.

102
Loeb, Vernon. “Fill ‘er Up: In the Nation’s First ‘Tanker War’

Every Mission Needs Midair Refueling.” Washington Post,

21 April 2002. 

Longino, Dana A. Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Future

Armed Conflict Scenarios. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, December 1994. 

Lowe, Christian. “Military Not Able to Meet Airlift Requirement

for War,” Defense Week 21, no. 50 (18 December 2000). 

Manske, Chad T. “Looking Ahead at the Future of Airlift: A Capabilities-Based Approach to Designing the Next Generation

Strategic Airlifter.” Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and

Staff College, April 2001. 

Mitchell Industries. “Feasibility of Modular Unmanned Logistics Express.” Final Proposal, 27 April 1998. http://www.

eb.uah.edu/ipt/files/1998/IPT1998_Final_Report_Team_

1_Final.pdf.

Morris, Daniel T. “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Options for the

Operational Commander.” Newport, R.I.: Naval War College,

18 May 1992.

Noguier, A. “Next Mission Unmanned: The Human Factor.”

Royal Air Force Air Power Review, Winter 1999. 

Nolan, Robert C. “The Pilotless Air Force? A Look at Replacing

Human Operators with Advanced Technology.” Maxwell

AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, March 1997.

http://research.maxwell.af.mil/papers/student/ay1997/

acsc/97-0530.pdf.

Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. National

Military Strategy of the United States of America, September

1997. http://www.dtic.mil/jcs/nms. 

Office of the Joint Staff. Mobility Requirements Study 2005 Executive Summary. Washington, D.C.: Deputy Director for

Power Projection & Sustainment, December 2000.

Office of the Secretary of Defense. Quadrennial Defense Review Report, 30 September 2001. Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, 30 September 2001. http://www.

de fenselink.mil/pubs/qdr2001.pdf.

———. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Roadmap 2000–2025. Washington, D.C.: Office of the Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), April 2001. http://www.

acq.osd.mil/usd/road.doc.

103
O’Reilly, Thomas G. “Uninhabited Air Vehicles: Critical Leverage

Systems for Our Nation’s Defense in 2025.” Maxwell AFB,

Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, April 1999. http://

research.maxwell.af.mil/papers/student/ay1999/acsc/99-

152.pdf. 

Owen, Robert C. “The Rise of Global Airlift In the United States

Air Force 1919–1977: A Relationship of Doctrine, Power,

and Policy.” Unpublished manuscript, n.d. 

Owen, Robert C. and Todd A. Fogle, “Air Mobility Command

and the Objective Force: A Case for Cooperative Revolution,”

Military Review 81, no. 1 (January/February 2001). http://

www.cgsc.army.mil/milrev/download/english/JanFeb

01/owen.pdf.

Puttre, Michael and Kenneth B. Sherman. “A Little Payload Goes

a Long Way.” Journal of Electronic Defense, July 2001.

Reinhardt, James R., Jonathan E. James, and Edward M.

Flanagan. “Future Employment of UAVs: Issues of Jointness.” Joint Force Quarterly, Summer 1999. http://www.

dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/0822b.pdf.

Richter, Paul. “Global Hawk Crashes in Afghanistan in a Setback

for High-Tech Drones.” Los Angeles Times, 1 January 2002. 

Ricks, Thomas E. and Anne Marie Squeo. “Why the Pentagon

is often Slow to Pursue Promising New Weapons.” Wall

Street Journal, 12 October 1999.

Rivers, Brendan P. “UAVs: 100 Eyes in the Sky.” The Journal

of Electronic Defense 22, no. 6 (June 1999). 

Secretary of the Air Force Legislative Liaison. 1998 Air Force

Congressional Issue Papers, 1998. http://www.af.mil/lib/

afissues/1998/issues98.html. 

Senate. Statement of Gen Charles T. Robertson Jr., USAF.

Strategic and Tactical Lift in the 21st Century: Hearings before the Subcommittee on Seapower of the Committee On

Armed Services. 106th Cong. 1st sess., March 1999.

Slagel, Angela. “Point Paper on Mobility Pilot Retention.” Headquarters Air Mobility Command, 2 October 2001. https://

private.amc.af.mil/dp/dpx/dpxp/dpxpa_new/Aircrew%

20Retention/MARPPs/Mobility%20Pilot%20Point%20

Paper.doc.

Svitak, Amy. “Pentagon Details Extra Money for War on Terror.”

Defense News, 25 February 2002. 

104
Taylor, John W. R. and Kenneth Munson. Jane’s Pocket Book of

Remotely Piloted Vehicles: Robot Aircraft Today. New York:

Collier Books, 1977. 

Taylor, William W., Craig Moore, and C. Robert Roll Jr. The Air Force

Pilot Shortage: A Crisis for Operational Units? Santa Monica,

Calif.: RAND, 2000. http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/

MR1204/. 

Thompson, Kenneth E. “F-16 Uninhabited Air Combat Vehicles.” Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College,

April 1998. http://www.fas.org/man/DOD-101/sys/ac/

docs/98-282.pdf. 

Tirpak, John A. “The Airlift Shortfall Deepens.” Air Force Magazine 84, no. 4 (April 2001). http://www.afa.org/magazine/

April2001/0401airlift.html.

———. “The Robotic Air Force.” Air Force Magazine 80, no. 9

(September 1997). http://www.afa.org/magazine/Sept

1997/0997robot.asp. 

Tobin, Keith E. “Piloting the USAF’s UAV Fleet: Pilots, Non-Rated

Officers, Enlisted, or Contractors?” Maxwell AFB, Ala.:

School of Advanced Airpower Studies, June 1999. http://

papers.maxwell.af.mil/projects/ay1999/saas/tobin.pdf.

United States Army Aviation and Missile Command. “Modular

Unmanned Logistics Express (MULE) Presentation.” December 2001.

USAF Scientific Advisory Board. Report on UAV Technologies

and Combat Operations. Vol. 2, Panel Reports. SAB Report

SAB-TR-96-01. Washington, D.C.: Department of the Air

Force, 1996.

———. UAV Technologies and Combat Operations. Vol. 1, Summary. SAB Report SAB-TR-96-01. Washington, D.C.: Department of the Air Force, 1996.

———. New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st

Century. Mobility Volume. Washington, D.C.: USAF Scientific Advisory Board, 1995. 

———. New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st

Century. Summary Volume. Washington, D.C.: USAF Scientific Advisory Board, 1995. 

United States Transportation Command. “Strategic Guidance

FY 2002.” http://www.transcom.mil/J5/fy02sg.pdf.

105
Wagner, William and William P. Sloan. Fireflies and Other UAVs.

Arlington, Tex.: Midland Publishing, 1992.

Walden, R. Barry. “The Use of Modeling and Simulation in the

Systems Engineering of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.” Systems Engineering Project, University of Maryland, A. James

Clark, School of Engineering, Fall 1998. http://www.glue.

umd.edu/~bwalden/project.html.

Wall, Robert and David A. Fulghum. “Military Budget Boost

Yields Marginal Change.” Aviation Week and Space Technology, 11 February 2002. 

Wall, Robert “Pentagon Scrubs Airlift Needs for Homeland Defense, War Effort.” Aviation Week and Space Technology 156,

no. 4 (28 January 2002): 62.

White House Office. A National Security Strategy for a Global

Age. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, December 2000.

Wilson, George C. “Pilots! Unman Your Airplanes!” National

Journal, 1 December 2001. 

Wilson, J. R. “Unmanned Helicopters Begin to Deliver.” Aerospace America, June 1999. 

“With C-17 Negotiations Final, Air Force Mulls Expanding New

Contract.” Inside the Air Force, 18 January 2002.

Wolfe, Frank. “Air Force Seeks to Allay Concerns of DOD, Hill on

Multiyear Financing for C-17s.” Defense Daily, 19 February

2002, 4. 

Zaloga, Steven. “Conflicts Underscore UAV Value, Vulnerability.”

Aviation Week and Space Technology 152, no. 3 (17 January

2000): 103.

106
Unmanned Airlift

A Viable Option for Meeting the

Strategic Airlift Shortfall

Air University Press Team

Chief Editor

Dr. Philip S. Adkins

Copy Editor

Audrey O. Weimer

Tammi Long

Book Design and Cover Art 

Daniel M. Armstrong

Composition and

Prepress Production

Mary P. Ferguson

Print Preparation

Joan Hickey

Distribution

Diane Clark