EARTH SCIENCE IN 

THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

A symposium presented during dedication ceremonies, 

U.S. Geological Survey National Center, Reston, Virginia, July 10-13, 1974 

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 921 

Contributions from: 

Canada Department of Energy, Mines and Resources 

Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Office of the President 

Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences 

Environmental Research Institute of Afichigan 

Illinois State Geological Survey 

johns Hopkins University, Department of Geography and 

Environmental Engineering 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth and 

Planetary Sciences 

Office of Senator Paul]. Fannin 

Pennsylvania State University, Department of Mineral Economics 

Resources for the Future, Inc. 

Syracuse University, Department of Geology 

U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks 

Geological Survey 

University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program 

Virginia Division of Mineral Resources 

EARTH SCIENCE IN 

THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

A symposium presented during dedication ceremonies, 

U.S. Geological Survey National Center, Reston, Virginia, July 10-13, 1974 

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 

Contributions from: 

Canada Department of Energy, Afines and Resources 

Council on Environmental Quality, Executive 0 ffice of the President 

Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences 

Environn1ental Research Institute of Michigan 

Illinois State Geological Survey 

johns Hopkins University, Departnwnt of Geography and 

Environmenta! Engineering 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth and 

Planetary Sciences 

Office of Senator Paul]. Fannin 

Pennsylvania State [Jniversity, Departn1ent of Mineral Economics 

Resources for the Future, Inc. 

Syracuse University, Departn1ent of Geology 

U.S. Departn1ent of Comnwrce, National Oceanic and Atn1ospheric 

Adnzinistration 

U.S. Departnwnt of the Interior 

Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks 

Geological Survey 

University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program 

Virginia Division of Mineral Resources 

9 2 1 

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, WASHINGTON 1974 
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 

ROGERS C. B. MORTON, Secretary 

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 

V. E. McKelvey, Director 

Library of Congress catalog-card No. 74-600198 

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 

Washington, D.C. 20402- Price $2.15 (paper cover) 

Stock Number 2401-02594 
CONTENTS 

Page 

Welcoming remarks, by V. E. McKelvey, Director, U.S. Geological 

Survey ------------------------------------------------- 1 

Geological surveys in the public service, by Charles H. Smith, 

Assistant Deputy Minister, Canada Department of Energy, 

Mines and Resources -------------------------------------- 2 

New directions for energy policy and analysis, by Joseph L. Fisher, 

Director, Resources for the Future, Inc. --------------------- 7 

Mineral-resource appraisal and analysis, by John Drew Ridge, 

Head, Department of Mineral Economics) Pennsylvania State 

University __________ ------------------------------------ 12 

Crisis and catastrophe in water-resources policy, by M. Gordon 

Wolman, Chairman, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University -------------- 17 

Environmental analysis and earth sciences in the. public service, by 

Beatrice E. Willard, Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Office of the President ___ ----------------------------- 28 

Lease management and resource conservation, by Don E. Kash, 

Director, Science and Public Policy Program, University of 

Oklahoma _ __ _ __ ___ _ ___ ___ _ _ ____ ___ ____ _ __ _ ___ __ ___ __ _ __ _ 31 

Resource and environmental data analysis, by Daniel F. Merriam, 

Chairman, Department of Geology, Syracuse University ______ 37 

New directions in topographic mapping, by James L. Calver, State 

Geologist, Virginia Division of Mineral Resources ___________ 46 

Geodynamics, by Charles L. Drake, Department of Earth Sciences, 

Dartmouth College ------------------------------:--------- 49 

Earth-resource surveys, by George J. Zissis, Chief Scientist, Environmenta,l Research Institute of Michigan ----------------- 53 

Federal interagency coordination of natural-resources studies, by 

Robert M. White, Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ------------------------------------ 57 

Land resource-its use and analysis, by John C. Frye, Chief, Illinois 

State Geological Survey ---------------------·------------- 60 

Technology information transfer, by JosephS. Jenckes, Administrative Assistant to Senator Paul J. Fannin -------------------- 64 

Interdisciplinary approach to the solution of natural-resources problems, by Nathaniel P. Reed, Assistant Secretary of the Interior 

for Fish and Wildlife and Parks --------------------------- 67 

Natural-hazards reduction, by Frank Press, Chairman, Department 

of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of 

Technology --------------------------------------------- 71 

III 
iv CONTENTS 

TABLE 

Page 

TABLE 1. Tabulation of select special data files ------------------ 39 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

WELCOMING REMARKS 

By V. E. McKELVEY 

Director, U.S. Geological Survey 

Welcome to our symposium on "Earth Science in the Public Service" 

and to the dedication of the John Wesley Powell Federal Building. 

I appreciate your coming-especially our distinguished speakers who 

have given so generously of their valuable time to come and share their 

views on the important topics to be discussed here today and tomorrow. 

The dedication of this building is a fitting occasion for the symposium 

we are now beginning, for earth science in the public service is, of course, 

what the U.S. Geological Survey is all about. Had there been no such occasion, however, it would have been desirable to create one, for we are at a 

stage in this country's, and indeed the world's, development where we face 

critical prob~ems whose solution requires the application and further development of earth science. Problems of energy, minerals, and waterresource adequacy, of land use and preservation of environmental quaHty, 

of the management of the resources of the public lands, and of the reduction 

of natural hazards are examples of problems in the domain of the earth 

sciences that are of critical importance to the Nation's future. 

It is not only appropriate, therefore, to focus on this topic of earth 

science in the public service, but urgent that we do so with the greatest 

perception ·and imagination at our command. We in the U.S. Geological 

Survey are applying ourselves as vigorously as we can to the problems I 

mentioned, but in planning this program, we expressed our need and desire 

to have the benefit of other ·viewpoints. The response to our invitations to 

speak on these topics has been heartwarming, for our speakers are distinguished leaders in their respective fields, and they have paid us a great 

compliment in coming to share their views with us. 

We plan to publish the papers that will be given here today, and I am 

sure that the result will be a valuable guide not only to us in the U.S. 

Geological Survey but to an who are concerned with public problems in the 

earth-science domain. 

Again, welcome, and thank you for coming. 

1 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

By CHARLES H. SMITH 

Assistant Deputy Minister, Canada Department of Energy, Mines and Resources 

I am honored to have been invited to join and 

speak with you on the occasion of the dedication of 

the John Wesley Powell Federal Building-this remarkable building which is named after an outstanding geologist and explorer, which represents your 

National Center for earth studies, and which stands 

for both the historical past and the future challenges facing the United States Geologica~! Survey. 

The reputation of the U.S.G.S. extends to an parts 

of the world, and it is obvious that Major Powell and 

the other scientists and politicians who were responsible for establishing the Survey in 1879 

"planned better than they knew." 

The phrase "geological survey" means different 

things to different people. To some it is the systematic recording of rock types along a picket line in 

the bush or a steep mountainside, and it excludes 

geophysical, geochemical, topographic, and other 

related surveys of the Earth. To some, the phrase 

refers to routine work and not to research, which 

is called instead "geological science" or "earth 

science." Modern specialization has led to a multiplicity of professions, societies, and allegiances, 

which feel more comfortable under such collective 

phrases as "earth sciences," "earth resources," and 

"earth surveys." We increasingly use these latter 

phrases to the point where people may rightly ask, 

"What is this institution-the Geological Survey? 

Either it is misnamed for the scope of its legitimate 

activities, or, alternatively, it is doing things beyond 

its mandate. By all the sacred principles of program planning and budgeting the Geological Survey 

should cease and desist, cut out these other activities 

and use the money for geological work in the narrow sense, or, alternatively, why not rename the institution-perhaps the National Earth Surveys and 

Research Institution?" It is unfortunately necessary 

2 

to remind the uninitiated continually that geology 

means "the study of the Earth"; it is a respected 

name with a long and honorable history and is not 

a specialized subdivision of the term "earth sciences." Geology is an integrating science, created 

directly from man's observation of natural phenomena and his effort to understand them and make 

use of them, and it is based upon many basic sciences 

and common sense. 

I submit to you that the concept of a geological 

survey in government today is the same as originally 

conceived by your Powell, and by our Logan, the 

founder of the Geological Survey of Canada. It 

encompasses the full spectrum of scientific and 

technical activities to provide data, information, and 

advice on the national landmass and its resources, 

thus ensuring proper husbandry of the land and 

proper government of the nation. The original geological surveys included not only the full range of 

earth resource, survey, and science activities of 

their day, but, in addition, studies of the flora, 

fauna, and native peoples; the geologists of the day 

were indeed broad in interests and practice. Today, 

in many countries, these earth-oriented activities 

have ·become increasingly dispersed through a number of organizations, federal, state, or provincial, 

in universities and industry. Earth-science experitise has developed in various parts of government 

to serve such policy areas as defense, transport, agriculture, environment, and energy, to name a few. 

The institution originally named the national geological survey is now a lesser component of the tota~l 

earth survey-science-resource function of government than it was when originally formed. N evertheless, the need of governments for accurate and timely 

information on their landmass and its resource base 

has not diminished, and one of the questions of the 
GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 3 

day is the role of responsibility of the national geological survey in providing that information and 

advice. My thesis is that governments, and the public, 

need, more than ever, to know in an integrated way 

about the landmass and its contained resources, and 

the conceptual model of the original geological surveys offers the best means of acquiring such knowledge as against recent trends of institutionally dispersing the inventory task. 

To appreciate a central government's interests and 

responsibilities in earth studies, it is beneficial to 

look back to the early evolution of earth surveys, 

earth sciences, and interest in earth resources, which 

resulted in positive action by both our governments 

to formally establish geological surveys in the last 

century. Then we might consider briefly the changing policies and thrusts of these organizations over 

the years, the scope of their involvement in human 

affairs, and the changing needs of the future. 

Earth surveys, earth sciences, and earth resources 

have been inextricably entwined in the support of 

mankind's occupation and use of our planet. One 

can look far back to the first use of earth resources 

-flint, chert and other hard stones-for weapons 

by primitive man. Economic geology may have had 

its inception with the desire for gem stones and 

metals by the Egyptians and Greeks. This led to 

mining activities by the Egyptians as early as 2000 

B.C. The early history of ea/rth S1Jrveys, or maps, 

is not easy to trace, but it is difficult to imagine a 

time when there were no maps. The ancient Babylonians certainly practiced surveying, having made 

a cadastra,l survey of their kingdom in 2800 B. C. 

Earth sciences followed in historical sequence, as 

mankind developed both the need and the capability 

to study and understand the mysteries of the Earth, 

for both intellectual and practical benefit. The great 

sea voyages of the 16th to 18th centuries sparked 

research in mapmaking, geodesy, and magnetism. 

This was the period of Mercator's maps, Copernicus' 

solar system, and Newton's theory of gravitation. If 

one were to draw a conclusion from the early historical record, it would be that the conduct of earth surveys, interest in the earth sciences, and the development and use of earth resources grew steadily in 

response to man's occupation of the Earth. In critical 

periods, earth surveys and sciences were of significant importance. 

In the last century, at the period of the Industrial 

Revolution, man's interest increased remarkably in 

the search for greater quantities of earth resources. 

The development of new lands in the Americas not 

only depended upon the availability of mineral resources but also on surveys of and information on 

the land surface and its potential use. Geology was 

turning more and more into an exact science based 

upon a body of clear princi pies. Geologists ac.;. 

cepted the concepts that rocks had formed by processes similar to those in action today ; that in undisturbed strata the upper layers are younger; that 

fossils change from older to younger beds and can 

be used for regional or even worldwide correlation. 

There were strong debates over the sedimentary 

versus igneous origin of rocks, and considerable 

progress was being made in establishing a uniform 

system of stratigraphic nomenclature. It was this 

fortunate confluence of intellectual ferment, industrialization, and settlement that formed the environment for the earth sciences, through geology, 

to assume a major role in governmental endeavors. 

Governments have traditionally funded earth 

surveys in order to effectively administer the affairs 

of a land. Most of the earlier applications had centered around military activities and land settlement. 

In the early years of the 19th century, many States 

in your country sponsored geological surveys to 

evaluate the mineral resources and to help with the 

disposal of State lands. Some, such as the New York 

Survey, were quite successful, but others were of 

short duration. It is a mark of the wisdom and foresight of a generation, or governments, when major 

governmental structures are established and maintained well in advance of a need or crisis. Such events 

occurred when national geological surveys such as 

the U.S. Geological Survey and the Geological Survey 

of Canada were formally established in the last century. I do not suggest that these organizations were 

not needed at the time of their formation-rather, 

that the needs are greater, far greater, today than 

when Powell and Logan attended to the creation 

and development of our broadly conceived Geological 

Surveys. 

The directions given by governments to the first 

directors of these Surveys, many years ago, are 

as meaningful today as when they were first stated. 

Clarence King, your first Director, was required to 

"examine the geological structure, mineral resources, 

and products of the national domain, and to classify 

public lands." William Logan was called upon to 

"make an accurate and complete geological survey 

and furnish a full and scientific description of its 

rocks, soils and minerals which shall be accompanied with proper maps, diagrams, and drawings, 

together with a collection of specimens to illustrate 

the same." Of course, in neither case did the governments of the day adequately estimate the cost or 
4 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

time span of such a task. Nevertheless, they pointed 

in the right direction and laid the foundation for 

the earth-resource knowledge base of our Nations 

today. The Surveys they created have become major 

instruments of economic and scientific development, 

with far-reaching effects that have gone beyond 

our national boundaries. The systematic examination of our national domains over the years has 

had the dual characteristic of establishing an inventory of mineral resources and the facts of nature, 

through repeated observations. 

Governments have grown in size and complexity 

since the early founding years of their geological 

surveys. They have passed through years of abundance and shortages, wars, and depressions. In each 

case the geological surveys have responded to the 

challenges placed upon them-to provide the nation 

with information and advice on its landmass and 

resources. In their formative years, work evolved 

around the exploration and settlement of the land. 

The members of the survey became the foremost 

authorities on the unsettled regions. Their reports, 

maps, displays, and lectures drew the attention of 

governments, industry, and the public to the resources and opportunities of the land. Along with 

their surveys came many scientific discoveries which 

attracted the attention of the international scientific community. The surveys established a close relationship with the mining industry, providing information and ideas that guided prospectors to the 

most promising areas, contributing to the opening of 

major mining regions and to the development of 

important mines. At times they were criticized for 

being too closely involved in the search for, as opposed to research on, ore deposits. At other times 

they were criticized for being too academic, or 

working in geographic areas too remote and inaccessible for short-term economic development. However, through this complementary relationship, 

industry and government have been successful in 

reaching a high level of mineral development in 

our lands. The geological surveys have also developed 

their supporting role to governments through the 

provision of sound information and advice for agriculture, for the military, for space programs, nuclear programs, foreign aid programs, earthquake 

and hazards prediction, engineering work, energy 

deve,lopment, and many more. During both W odd 

Wars, the survey staffs were engaged in major strategic mineral programs and resource appraisals. 

Geological surveys today are being put under 

increasingly severe pressure, probably greater than 

have existed in any peacetime period since the time 

of Powell and Logan. Human occupation over the 

surface of the Earth has grown to such an extent 

that man is recognized as a significant geological 

agent. He has touched all parts of the Earth's surface, penetrated the depths of the oceans, and ventured into space. What he does not touch, he senses 

remotely. His erosion of nature's bounty is putting 

into question the adequacy of resources to maintain, 

for the future, established standards of life, and his 

alteration of the environment has created concerns 

about his ability to survive under conditions made 

almost suddenly different from those under which he 

has evolved. In the last 150 years, man's development has not been in the wise light of integrated 

knowledge but rather along compartmentalized 

thrusts. A developing technology and population have 

dictated at each moment or period of time the measure to which the Earth's resources are used. A 

systematic measure of the Earth's capabilities has 

not been the standard of man's discipline towards 

nature. Such a measure of the Earth's capacity to 

stand modifications in its materials and in the 

regimen of processes should derive from the type 

of concerted action for which our geological surveys 

were created. Unfortunately, man's use of the Earth 

has outstripped the rate at which the knowledge 

of our lands and their resource base has been generected, communicated, and understood by policymakers and the public. The aim of Powell to "educate the nation" has not yet been achieved in any 

country. 

The public is now becoming increasing interested 

and concerned with the results of their geological 

surveys-and let us remember again the direction to 

Powell and Logan "to survey the mineral resources." 

Now the public and governments are concerned over 

increased warnings of resource depletion. The Secretary of your Department, Mr. Morton, stated 

recently that "the United States, and the world as 

a whole, face a crisis of exhausted natural resources 

within 25 years unless they act soon to develop the 

long range planning to prevent it." There have been 

equally startling statements about man's effect on 

his environment. Who wiU provide the public with 

the basic information respecting resource depletion 

or degradation of the physical environment? I submit that this is the responsibility of the national 

geological surveys. 

It might be asked, "Could not this responsibility 

be undertaken by industry?" The task of gathering 

information on the mineral endowment and landmass has been pursued in the United States and Canada, since Powell and Logan, by industry, State (or 
GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 5 

Provincial), and Federal institutions, supported to 

a lesser extent by university grvups. The success 

of industry, in particular, has resulted from its 

ability to develop and exploit resource data in a 

competitive and confidential manner. A great many 

data have thus been collected by many groups, but 

they are not well coordinated or synthesized in a 

national sense. Although industry has synthesized 

national data for fuels, there have been no comparable national estimates by industry for the other 

mineral resources. The separate roles of industry 

and governments in the process of resource inventory over the past hundred years is reminiscent of 

the situation in the 1870's, when rivalry between 

the military and civilian surveys brought disorder to 

government science, reduced public confidence in it, 

and resulted in the formation of the U.S. Geological 

Survey to reduce duplication and increase efficiency! 

Without belittling the tremendous knowledge and 

expertise developed by industry, I believe that the 

public is now seeking its own independent source of 

advice on the resources and environment of the 

nations. In our universities and nonprofit research 

organizations, there are admittedly experienced and 

interested scientists with interests and viewpoints on 

the resource base and its adequacy. Their role is 

extremely important in developing new methodologies and new concepts and in assisting with the 

major role of educating the public. They lack, however, access to a sizeable data base which permits 

factual and timely statements on the national and 

international resource situation today. 

Can a geological survey produce the timely and 

meaningful analyses required for the resource and 

environmental policies of the next decade? For geological surveys to rise to this increasing responsibility will require the focusing of talents and efforts 

in a manner not unlike that of wartime, but the 

possibilities of disaster warrant such a reaction, even 

if only to prove the predictions to be unfounded or 

premature. However, this advisory activity is 

fraught with many problems. The time is short. The 

existing data base is inadequate. A pooling of industrial and government data will be required for 

immediate effectiveness, along with new programs 

to obtain data from as-yet-unexplored regions. It is 

essential to an informed debate that the basic observations of industry and other groups become increasingly accessible in the public realm, and new 

legislation may be required to bear on this problem. 

That is not all. We know that a single drill hole 

can still turn a "barren region" into a "Prudhoe 

Bay." We must recognize that the methodology for 

manipulating resource data and forecasting concentrations in unexplored areas is also inadequate. Much 

depends upon intuition-or qualitative interpretations. We must look to those experiences in the 

vagaries of geology to extrapolate, now with the aid 

of the computer, the possible abundances of metals or 

fuels in unexplored areas. But how will the quality 

of their work be tested? It may not be subjected to 

the test used by industry-drilling-for many years. 

It may not be. subjected to the normal tests of 

science-the reproducibility of results. Under such 

circumstances, the whims or judgments of a few 

specialists can have a major influence on the policies 

of a nation. In this area of judgment where the facts 

are not crysta!l clear, the special interests of scientists can easily influence their interpretations. Hence, 

a new system of checks and balances will have to be 

developed within the scientific community to test 

the work and condusions of their colleagues. It wiH 

be a test of our geological surveys whether they succeed in mobilizing our limited national expertise 

from aU sectors for this work, and thus show true 

national leadership, or become merely one of a rising 

babel on the world scene. What additional problems 

will this create for the geological survey? There will 

be problems of credibility, as the forecasts change 

when new information is added. There will be problems of communication in explaining the meaning 

and variations of resource estimates. There wiH be 

problems in confronting professional experts from 

other sectors, and in debating the technical terminology, data, and interpretations in a public forum. 

However, such debates will have to occur with increasing frequency in the technical community, if 

the people or their elected representatives are to 

make their own decisions. There will be problems to 

ensure that the pressures of this work do not cut 

excessively into the scientific excellence and quality 

of other essential survey programs. Vigilance will 

be required to ensure a continuing buildup of the 

basic geological data and derived information that 

provide a survey with a springboard for any new 

thrust, in any direction, arising from the events or 

concerns of the day. 

Before closing, I would like to add a word concerning the importance of international activities. 

Study and understanding of the earth is not limited 

by national boundaries. It is essential that governments, through their survey organizations, work 

closely together to set the standards and methods for 

resource estimation. Although there is a trend to 

consider such information as semiconfidential, it is 

extremely important, in my view, that such know-
6 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

ledge be increasing1ly exchanged to provide a better 

basis for discussions on the resource problems and 

opportunities of the world. 

The earth sciences and earth surveys are entering 

a new era of public service. It is up to the earth 

scientists and our earth-science institutions to rise 

to this challenge and to show that the dreams and 

aspirations of PoweU and Logan were not in vain. 

It is up to the national geological surveys to lead 

the way by coordinating the many centers of information now existing across the land and, by building 

upon their established reputations for excellence and 

objectivity, to ensure that the public receives the 

information and sound policies required to meet the 

new way of life that lies ahead. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

NEW DIRECTIONS FOR ENERGY POLICY AND ANALYSIS 

By JOSEPH L. FISHER 

Director, Resources for the Future, Inc. 

The dedication of the John Wesley Powell Federal 

Building as the U.S. Geological Survey National 

Center is an auspicious occasion for the Nation. The 

U.S.G.S. has played a major role in the unfolding 

history of our country : In the development of the 

earth sciences ; in the establishment of standards 

of excellence in geologic, topographic, and hydrographic data gathering, mapping, and analysis; in 

the opening up of the West and Alaska and now 

the offshore seas; and in the underpinning of economic and social progress itself. In these times of 

widespread disillusion with government and established institutions of all kinds, Americans can take 

heart that their Geological Survey holds firmly to 

its mission of providing objective nonpolitical information of high quality about the land and water 

resources on which we aU depend for both life and 

livelihood. This is what I mean when I say that this 

is an auspicious national occasion. 

I want to deal with some important problems 

facing this country in energy and to suggest some 

new directions for policy and analysis. Now that 

last winter's energy crisis, problem, or whatever, has 

eased, we in this country must take care not to 

revert to old attitudes and habits about energy. We 

must take advantage of the respite to change our 

consumption patterns, to try much harder to conserve energy, and to find new reliable sources of 

supply. None of this will be easy. 

The energy future of the United States is vulnerable. Renewed embargoes, higher costs of oH, difficulties in preventing environmental problems, excessive profits for energy companies, and unrestrained 

growth in demand can threaten that future. We 

must do better through national policy and individual action to limit consumption and increase supply. 

The objectives of low-cost energy, new and diversifled supply sources, environmental protection, competition among companies, fair taxes, national security, and good sustainable relations with other 

countries must all be served. 

The energy problems ahead are many and can be 

a serious threat to the welfare of this and other nations and to the peace of the world. If within the 

next year the United States has not vastly improved 

its energy policies for both the immediate future and 

the longer range, an opportunity will have been lost 

and much trouble will lie ahead. 

At this point a short quotation from Art Buchwald 

is appropriate: 

Three moving men walked into the office of the 

Energy Crisis and started taking down the pictures 

and the graphs. 

"What are you guys doing?" the Energy Crisis 

asked. 

"We have orders to move al1i your stuff out. They're 

moving another crisis into this office." 

"But I just got here," the Energy Crisis protested. 

"Don't talk to us. We just do what they ten us." 

"Why am I being moved out of my office?" the 

Energy Crisis demanded. 

"You want it straight? We don't need you anymore. You're washed up. Get lost." 

Although the oil crisis in the immediate sense has 

passed, the longer range outlook is full of "ifs," 

"ands," and "buts." If the embargo is not reinstituted, 'if the American people will intensify their 

efforts to conserve, if research and development for 

coal liquefaction or breeder reactors pays off, if 

offshore driHing reveals lots of low-cost oil ... and 

environmental damages can be contained, and peace 

can be maintained in the Middle East, and more refineries can be built . . . but will oil prices hold at 

7 
8 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

politically tolerable levels, but win companies accept 

a reduction of their special tax advantages and still 

proceed vigorous,ly to expand supply, but will consumers-industries, individuals, families-sustain 

the discipline necessary to reduce their consumption 

of energy, but will technology continue to provide 

new practical means for converting energy raw 

materials into usable heat and power? These are 

only a few of the "ifs," "ands," and "buts" in the 

American energy future. 

Many observers believe that this country and the 

world are passing over a major divide and entering 

a new watershed in which energy win never again 

be plentiful and low in cost. They believe that the 

,Jarge boost in crude-oil price forced on the world in 

late 1973, principally by the Arab contingent in the 

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries 

(OPEC), marked the end of the era of easy oil, 

that from here on, 50- to 60-cent gasoline will be 

the unpleasant fact of life, and that there will be a 

continual scramble for new sources of oil and gas. 

Others surveying the same scene are more optimistic. 

They see higher prices weeding out unnecessary 

consumption, stimulating new supply, and providing 

the incentive for conservation. 

Whatever one's outlook may be, some fairly basic 

decisions regarding the direction of future energy 

policy and analysis seem to be at hand. Here are 

some of them : 

1. Market pricing-or controls. Should the U.S. 

Government stand aside and let oil and other 

other energy commodity prices rise to whatever leve,l proves necessary to equate the forces 

of demand and supply? Such a hands-off approach has advantages: Consumer and ptroducer choices would be allowed to work their 

way without restriction, price and rationing 

administration would be avoided, high prices 

would stimllllate the flow of investment funds 

to expand supply. PoliticaUy, however, this 

approach would not be easy to live with, as 

many members of Congress will testify, and it 

would be hard on the low-income group. Also, 

at least in the short run, higher prices would 

exacerbate inflation. 

2. Drastic alteration of the structure and functioning of the oH industry-or business more or 

less as usual. Large numbers of people are convinced that industry, especially big on, is 

mainly responsible for the recent energy 

crunch and has perpetrated a conspiracy to 

raise prices by withholding supply. Others do 

not agree with this but nevertheless think that 

the oil-depletion a.llowance, foreign tax credit, 

and other tax advantages should be eliminated 

or at least reduced. Now is the time to do it, 

they argue, because prices are very high and 

the companies would not be hurt. In addition, 

the case for bt:eaking up the large vertica,J,Jy 

integrated oil companies through tougher application of antitrust laws is now being made 

more vigorously than for som.e time. This is 

urgent, so the case goes on, because oil companies have been extending their activities far 

into coal, urani urn, and other parts of the 

energy industry. Finally, support is mounting 

for direct Govern.ment development and operation of commercial-scale yardstick plants to 

produce shale oil, liquid or gaseous fuel from 

coa,l, offshore oil, and nuclear power. The structure and functioning of the oil industry may 

indeed be in for drastic change. 

3. Extension or relaxation of environmental controls. The direction of change regarding protection of the environment has been set in the 

clean air and water legislation of the past few 

years in response to the so-called environmental 

revolution which amounted to a sudden perception of increasing pollution, congestion, and 

landscape degradation. The energy-supply 

crisis came in on the heels of the environmental 

crisis, causing a reexamination of the air, 

water, and other quality standards which had 

been set, and especially the dates by which the 

standards were to be reached. The N ationa,l 

Commission on Water Quality is a part of this 

process of reexamination, as are other studies 

of air-quality standards now progressing in 

various places. The battle lines have been 

drawn, and the outcome wiU hinge largely on 

what happens in hundreds of specific cases for 

locating powerplants, relaxing sulfur or other 

discharge standards, leasing oil lands onshore 

and offshore, raising electric rates, taxing industrial effluents, and enforcing regulations. 

4. National self-sufficiency-or a world system. The 

President has announced a goal of U.S. selfsufficiency in energy by 1980. Prior to the Yom 

Kippur War, this country was importing 

nearly 30 percent of its crude oi,l, 10 percent or 

so from the Middle East and North Africa. 

Many regard the achievement of total selfsufficiency by 1980 as impossible and undesirable as well. Large increases in domestic supply 
NEW DIR.EGTIONS FOR ENERGY POLICY AND ANALYSIS 9 

of oil, they state, will take more time and will 

be costly. The leadtimes for breeder reactors, 

coal-conversion plants, oil-shale mining and 

processing, and significant offshore oil development are quite long, ranging from 3 or 4 yea.rs 

to 10 or 12 for single installations, let alone 

whole new industries. Furthermore, national 

self-sufficiency, pursued rapidly and relent .. 

lessly, might upset entirely the applecart of 

international relations and leave the United 

States with troubles compounded in all directions. On the other hand, a countercase can be 

made that Western European countries and 

Japan would be better off to the degree that 

the United States is self-sufficient in oil. There 

would be less pressure on world oil prices, more 

Arab oil for them, and larger U.S. domestic 

production for them, as friends, to draw on 

should the Persian Gulf source be shut off. The 

principal opposition to U.S. self-sufficiency, 

however, comes from internally oriented persons and agencies whose profound belief is that 

problems like oU and energy are world problems and have to be met on that scale. Selfsufficiency is a flirtation with disaster, they 

maintain, because it tears the fabric of international cooperation and peace. 

5. Stability and manageableness in the international 

balance of payments-or chaos. Oi,l selling in 

the international market at $10, $12, or $15 a 

barrel, when production costs range from 10 

cents to $1 a barrel, when transportation costs 

to almost any refinery in the world are :less 

than $1 a barrel, and when refining costs are 

about the same, means huge monetary gains 

for the exporting countries. Next year, the 

Middle East and North African oil countries 

could realize more than $50 billion-perhaps 

as much as $80 billion-in profits, taxes, rents, 

or whatever these gains might be called. Already, very large sums in the hands of these 

countries have piled up in volatile short-term 

deposits and investments in U.S. and European 

banks from which they have been loaned on a 

longer term basis. The problem of sustaining 

this kind of international monetary transfer 

will be severe in the extreme and will call for 

both national and international policies for 

long-term investment of these oil funds in the 

more developed oil-importing countries and in 

less developed oil-poor countries. Also the situation will call for technical aid and industrial 

capital to be furnished by the more developed 

to the less developed countries. Recently I 

have been advocating an ongoing World Conference on Energy and Minerals Policy to cope 

with these and related problems, perhaps under 

United Nations' auspices. 

6. Open information regarding energy-or privilege and s.ecrecy. The energy situation is of 

such critical importance for the national welfare, and the state of public confidence in the 

energy industries is such that the proprieta.ry 

aspect of energy information should now be 

largely eliminated. Information from the energy industry on reserves, production, shipments, process,ing, sales, prices, costs, and 

profits from now on should be reported to the 

Government and made public. The only exception should be in instances clearly and directly 

affecting military security. The major change 

being suggested is for revealing information 

on reserves ; most of the other information is 

a'lready made public. This, of course, would 

raise the hackles in the industry and would 

constitute a sharp change- from past practice. 

However, because aH major and substantial 

companies would be treated alike, no one of 

them could easily c,laim that it would suffer any 

serious disadvantage because the information 

reported is made public. The retention of some, 

perhaps much, information in a confidential 

or secret status inevitably will lead to doubts 

and apprehensions on the part of many people 

and would mean that many companies will continue to be in the unenviable position in which 

the truthfulness of what they say will be 

doubted. 

Several reasons for this position are important. First, the country remains in a serious 

energy bind which will take some years to 

loosen. The hard job of increasing supp:lie·s, 

especially of oil and gas, will take a number 

of years to complete, as will the job of establishing habits of greater conservation. In this 

situation and with this outlook, Government 

leadership is imperative and cannot be exercized effectively except on the basis of the most 

complete, systematic, and prompt information 

that can be obtained. Second, the information 

should be kept open and avai,Jable for public inspection. There is no other way of convincing 

people that games are not being played with the 

vital public interest. Without full disclosure of 
10 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

information, the widely held belief that some 

kind of rip-off is going on will not be dispelled. 

Third, it is unrealistic to expect public support 

for spending more than $2 billion a year on oil 

exploration, development, and research generally, much of it for new sources and technologies, if knowledge of known sources and existing technologies is kept locked up in company 

files. 

7. Sustained, long-term, and large research and development programs-or sporadic hit-or-miss 

efforts. There can be only one answer to this 

choice, of course. The problems are how to organize for it, at what scale to carry it on, and 

how to define priorities and sequences. At present, energy research and development in the 

Federal Government is widely scattered among 

many agencies-the Atomic Energy Commission, the Office of Coal Research, and many 

others. Each has its own mission, legislative 

authority, funding, style, and constituency. No ... 

where is the whole set of research and development activities brought together, ordered, coordinated, and made to serve deliberately chosen national objectives in an economically and 

sustainable way. Two billion dollars or more a 

year for energy research and development is 

too much to spend in a relatively unorganized 

way. The heavy emphasis of recent years on 

conventional and breeder nuclear energy now 

needs to be reexamined and placed in a larger 

context of research and development on conversion of coal to liquid and gaseous fuel, development of oil shale and tar sand, offshore exploration, solar energy,, geothermal energy, and nuclear fusion. Technology for some of these 

processes has already been proved ; other 

processes are nowhere near ready for commercial use. All of them must be brought together 

in a long-range program designed to meet anticipated needs. Research on environmental 

protection is equally urgent, as is research on 

conservation of energy materials and improvements in the efficiency of mining, conversion, 

use, and reclamation. All logic points toward a 

special, probably new, agency for energy research and development. 

8. Major changes in life styles-or not. Many important and sensitive groups in this countrymany young people, for example-argue and in 

various ways demonstrate for a more simple 

style of living and less consumption of energy 

and energy-using vehicles and products. 

Whether this devotion will be sustained into 

middle age against the lure of creature comforts and the easy mobility of the auto remains 

to be seen, but the challenge is serious and the 

option may well be viable. High energy prices 

make it attractive, as do its environmental advantages. The typical American .uses 40 to 50 

times as much energy as most Asians and Africans. People in Europe, Japan, and some other 

countries enjoy quite good standards of living, 

in many respects better standards than Americans do, on half as much energy per capita. 

Prudence points in the direction of a life style 

requiring less energy, certainly in the direction 

of conservation and more efficient use of energy; however, many still regard it as sensible 

not to reduce consumption or to save on things 

unless one absolutely has to. 

9. New policy-making agencies and processes-or 

muddle along with what we have. Debate on 

how to instrument changes in energy policy and 

programs is hot at this time, in Congress and 

elsewhere. Most would agree that the Federal 

Government, and the States and local governments also, need to pull their boots up, reorganize some, and do a better job in energy. At the 

Federal level, a statutory energy administration has recently been established. A separate 

agency for research and development, a new 

Department of Energy and Natural Resources, 

better coordinating arrangements, and, on the 

Congressional side, a Joint Energy Committee 

have been proposed and have merit. Doing 

nothing, or not much, to improve policies and 

programs would seem to be a failure of political 

leadership, which in the face of new and severe 

problems, the country should not tolerate. The 

traditional dispersal of energy responsibilities 

and the resulting poor performance has got to 

go, as almost everyone would agree. The question is exactly what changes should be made 

and how the tasks and responsibilities should 

be assigned so that decisions on new policy directions can be translated promptly, smoothly, 

and fairly into action. 

These are some of the major issues in energy that 

will have to be worked out if the needs of people in 

this country are to be met in the coming years. The 

answers are not easy because the problems are complex. My own preferences for policy may have been 

revealed somewhat in my presentation of the main 
NEW DIRECTIONS FOR ENERGY POLICY AND ANALYSIS 11 

issues. They are for a readiness to guide, and if 

necessary to control selectively and temporarily, the 

operation of the market in establishing energy prices 

in these times of rapid inflation; for reduction in 

certain tax advantages of oil companies; for stout 

adherence to improving environmental conditions 

with a minimum of compromises and delays; for a 

decisive though limited movement in self-sufficiency 

to lessen the insecurity of too great dependence on 

uncertain overseas sources of oil ; for retaining an 

international trading and investing system in oil and 

other energy commodities; for some fairly major 

changes in life style; and for organizational changes 

in government to promote an integration of energy 

policies and programs. 

My preferences for policy, or those of anyone, will 

be no better than the facts, the research, and the 

analysis that underlie them. The Geological Survey is 

forever extending the facts and improving the research and analysis. Increasing attention in recent 

years has been given to offshore geology, to environmental aspects of mining and water development, and 

to satellite and other remote-sensing devices. Economic analysis has been strengthened ; as an economist myself, I would hope that this could be enlarged 

still more. The Survey might well aim to develop as 

much expertise in appraising needs and requirements 

for energy and other materials as it has long had in 

appraising reserves. It could to advantage probe 

deeply into the changing structure of demand for the 

various energy sources as these are utilized in industry, transportation, space heating and cooling, and 

electric-power production. The role of prices should 

also be considered, and various international factors 

should be taken into account. A systematic and comprehensive framework of demand and supply estimates, looking ahead to both the short range and the 

long range, should be the goal. Such a framework, 

reworked periodically, will reveal many clues as to 

the priorities of research and analysis on new sources 

of supply and new technology. Other agencies of government can help in this work, but I am urging the 

U.S. Geological Survey to take the lead. It would be 

a new and exciting enterprise. 

The other decisions about energy outlined earlier 

also call for more study than has been given to them 

thus far. Much more needs to be known about the 

structure and behavior of the energy industries, the 

response of both industries and people to environmental controls, the world implications of greater 

self-sufficiency in energy on the part of the United 

States, the ramifications of the balance of payments 

problems arising out of the much higher price of oil, 

and the likely effects of higher prices on consumption, new technology, and exploration for new sources 

of supply. The agenda of future research on energy 

is a long one, full of interest and excitement. 

The Government's role in energy, which involves 

not only the Geological Survey but all agencies concerned with energy, is likely to become more important and, I believe, should become so. It will have 

to establish the broad objectives-low cost and dependable supply, environmental protection, national 

security, employment-and some degree of consensus 

as to trade-offs among these objectives. It will have 

to provide incentives for appropriate private initiatives and itself perform certain functions. It will 

have to furnish much more basic information about 

energy resources, likely future requirements, costs, 

new technology, environmental impacts, and ways to 

conserve supplies and increase efficiency in extraction, processing, and use. And here again is where 

the Geological Survey comes in. 

Even though an Energy Research and Development Agency may soon be established to pull together 

the more applied programs, the U.S.G.S. will still 

have to be relied on for much of the basic information and appraisals within which subsequent research and development will take place. The higher 

the structure, the more necessary that the foundation be deep and firm. The American people have 

come to expect excellence from the Geological Survey. 

This new building, this National Center, especially 

the people here who will do the work, can be trusted 

to continue this tradition and to improve on it. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

MINERAL-RESOURCE APPRAISAL AND ANALYSIS 

By JoHN DREW RIDGE 

Head, Department of Mineral Economics, Pennsylvania State University 

" ... There are only a limited number of places left 

to search for most minerals. Geologists disagree 

about the prospects for finding large, new rich ore 

deposits. Reliance on such discoveries would seem 

unwise in the long term" (The Limits to Growth, the 

Club of Rome Report, 1972, p. 55). 

This less-than-optimistic attitude of the authors of 

the Club of Rome report indicates, if nothing else, 

that mineral raw materials are so important to the 

continued industrial life of this Nation that we must 

obtain the best possible understanding of the quantities of such materials in our subsoil. Although the 

United States almost certainly can never again become essentially self-sufficient in metallic raw materials, we would be foolhardy not to try to find all 

deposits of them that exist within our borders. 

Most present exploration for mineral raw materials is carried out by examining what the prospecting 

organization considers to be the geologically most 

favorable areas available to it. Such areas are either 

(1) districts in which workable ore deposits have 

been found previously, the most favorable sites being 

those whose geology is decidedly similar to those in 

which ore bodies have occurred; or (2) districts that 

do not' contain known ore bodies, but that have geology much like that of areas that do. Examples of (2) 

are provided by the recent finding of the zinc deposits 

of central Tennessee or those of the new lead belt in 

Missouri. Examples of ( 1) are furnished by the discovery of the Kalamazoo ore body at San Manuel or 

by the several deposits found around the rim of the 

Sudbury basin since the end of World War II. 

In an area in which ore deposits have previously 

been found, some considerable information is known 

on the surface geology. In addition, data are available on the subsurface geology because both drilling 

and mining, as well as surface work, have been car12 

ried out. This subsurface geology will not, of course, 

be as well known to a company that does not own one 

of the ore bodies already being exploited in the district as to one that does. The first company will, however, have acquired, in one way or another, more 

knowledge of the character of the rocks in the subsurface than it would of any area that has not been 

drilled and .mined. Such an undrilled and unmined 

area may, however, have been mapped and perhaps 

examined by surface geochemical and geophysical 

studies. To some extent, the surface mapping and 

the geophysical work will have provided some insights into the character of the subsurface geology, 

but, at best, the inferences drawn from this work are 

not applicable more than a few hundred feet beneath 

the surface. What can be assumed from surface geochemical work provides even less penetration beneath the surface. 

In any area in which the information derived from 

the surface is encouraging, the mining company examining the area will lay out a drilling program to 

provide knowledge of the subsurface. The drilling 

will be continued for as long as the results suggest 

that ore has been found or may be found. As soon as 

the balance of (usually subjective) probabilities 

ceases to favor the discovery of ore, drilling will be 

stopped, and exploration will be started in the next 

(potentially) most favorable area. This method provides a continuously increasing amount of geologic 

information, but if this information is not deposited 

in a single repository, it is not readily available to 

any but the company that acquired it. Thus, as a 

means of providing a broad survey of what ore might 

be available in the United States, exploration by individual companies or groups of companies leaves 

much to be desired. 

If a broad survey is to be achieved, several things 
MINERAL-R.ESOURCE APPRAISAL AND ANALYSIS 13 

must be done. The first of these is to continue, accelerate, and refine the surface mapping done by the 

U.S. Geological Survey, so that much more of the 

Nation is covered by geologically mapped quadrangles than is now the case. The second is for the 

Survey to continue and expand surface geochemical 

and geophysical work. The third is for the Federal 

Government to require that the results of geological, 

geochemical, and geophysical work done by private 

firms on Federal lands must be deposited with the 

Survey and that the Survey integrate this work with 

their own results. The fourth, and most important 

step, however, is that we obtain systematically a 

much greater knowledge of what lies beneath the 

surface than can be provided by the first three methods of geological information gathering that have 

just been mentioned. Such knowledge of the rocks at 

depth can be produced best by drilling on a large 

scale, the holes being taken down at least 3 miles 

beneath the surface. 

This drilling can be done in two ways. The first is 

to drill areas thought (again mainly subjectively) to 

be geologically favorable, starting with what are considered to be the most promising, and working outward into surrounding ones that show less favorable 

surface indications of ore beneath. This approach has 

the advantage of making maximum use of what is 

known of surface geology, but it confines the prospector to rocks and rock relations he already knows 

to be associated with ore bodies. It provides no basis 

for bold strides into the unknown. The second approach is based on the premise that much ore lies 

below the 1,000-foot outer skin of the crust that we 

know something about by surface mapping, geochemistry, and geophysics. To check the value of this 

premise, it is necessary to prospect by drilling a 

regularly spaced series of holes throughout the 

United States. The only areas not to be drilled would 

be those now used in such a way that they cannot 

possibly be profitably subjected to mining operations 

even if they were to overlie large ore deposits. 1 If a 

second Rand were found beneath Manhattan Island, 

it would not be good economics to convert that island 

into a mining camp. Much of the area of the United 

States, however, is so used at present that a large 

mine would be more profitable than whatever is being 

done on that part of the surface today. 

We will never know what underlies the entire surface of the United States unless we look, and regularly spaced drilling provides the only systematic 

method today for such explorations. It can be convincingly argued that so much recoverable mineral 

and fuel material would be found by such drilling 

(Griffiths, 1967) that the cost would be repaid many 

times over. Griffiths (1967; Griffiths and Singer, 

1970) has suggested that such drilling be carried out 

on a grid pattern, the holes being spaced at 20-mile 

intervals and each hole carried to a depth of 3 miles. 

This program would require some 7,500 holes and 

would cost about $3 billion. 

Griffiths has pointed out that if five circular or elliptical targets, 28 miles across (the approximate 

size of major oil fields in the United States), remain 

undiscovered in this country, they would be found 

with certainty by this drilling method. Smaller but 

still large targets, such as major porphyry copper 

deposits, would be less probably discovered directly, 

but enough indications would appear in the holes to 

justify further exploration by a more closely spaced 

grid. Griffiths has assumed that the mineral raw materials found in this country to date constitute a random sample of the outer 3 miles of the crust of the 

contiguous 48 States. This justifies the conclusion 

that, if the entire 3 million square miles of the 48 

States were tested, the area would be large enough 

and mineral-rich enough for a commercial success to 

be assured for the drilling program under a wide 

variety of boundary conditions. 

Using 1966 data, Griffiths estimated the avera.ge 

value of mineral raw materials recovered from the 

surface and subsurface mineral deposits in the conterminous United States. Allowing for the recovery 

of mineral materials since that date, this average 

value is now about $250,000 per square mile. The frequency distribution of dollar value per square mile 

for the 48 States is lognormal, having a mean value 

of about $150,000. The variation from the average is 

considerable; the value per square mile in Oregon is 

less than $16,000 and that in Pennsylvania is more 

than $1,800,000. These data do not mean, of course, 

that each area of 400 square miles in which each drill 

hole is centered will contain $100 million of recoverable raw materials, but Griffiths' calculations show 

that each 400 square miles would, on the average, 

contain that dollar value of raw materials. Thus, the 

entire 3 million square miles of the United States, to 

a depth of 3 miles, should hold $750 billion of recoverable raw materials. The best approach to making 

sure that all such materials are found seems to be 

grid drilling. 

1 It should be obvious that such a program of exploration cannot be 

carried out for minerals alone. It must be designed to look for anything of 

value within the crust of the Earth. Thus, to attempt to make separate 

appraisals for oil and gas and for solid minerals is economically and 

geologically unsound. 
14 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

The usefulness of the drilling program would be 

apparent long before it had been finished, because the 

information available from any sizable drilled area 

could be analyzed immediately and made the basis for 

secondary exploration efforts. 

It probably would be advisable to fit the primary 

20-mile grid to the area of the United States so that, 

although the drilling would still be done on regularly 

spaced centers, the holes would miss as many of the 

known major areas of mineral raw material concentration (solid, liquid, or gaseous) as possible. This 

modification of Griffiths' concept may be somewhat 

less than mathematically sound and must be thoroughly tested to make certain that it does not introduce an unacceptable bias into the drilling scheme. In 

favor of such a nonrandom fitting of the grid is the 

fact that probably less new data would come from a 

hole through the rocks of the Butte copper district or 

those of the East Texas oil field than through those 

of areas less well known geologically. 

Probably only by some version of Griffiths' scheme 

will it be possible really to understand the ore geology of the United States and to be certain that all 

deposits of mineral and fuel materials in the outer 

3 miles of the crust of this country would be found. 

Such an approach would be a radical departure from 

the system of exploration now practiced, but it 

should discover the ore potential of the entire country much more rapidly than do present exploration 

methods. 

Another mathematically based approach has been 

developed by Harris and his coworkers (1966, 1969, 

1973; unpub. data). His methods, described briefly 

below, are designed to aid in the determination of 

areas favorable to ore occurrence through quantifying objective and subjective geologic and economic 

variables and analyzing these mathematically. He 

deals, however, with areas in which ore already has 

been found or with areas whose geology is similar to 

that in which major ore deposits have been 

discovered. 

In the first study in this series, Harris (1966) has 

suggested how to construct an objective model that 

will associate probability of occurrence of some 

measure of mineral wealth with the reconnaissance 

geology of each subdivision (cell) of the area in question. The model he developed has determined that 

geologic variables can be related mathematically to 

the probability of the occurrence of mineral wealth. 

His quantification of the geologic variables of a 

geologically known ore-containing area in Arizona 

and New Mexico in counts, percentages, and lengths 

produced the values necessary to test his model. He 

found that multiple discriminant analysis and classification analysis by Bayesian statistics and multivariate probability constitute a two-phase probability model that associates probabilities with geologic 

data and mineral wealth. On the basis of the succes~ 

ful test of the model in the area studied, Harris concluded that geologic data on a known ore-bearing 

area can be used to guide exploration in an unknown 

area of generally similar geologic characteristics. 

In his paper with Euresty (1969), Harris refined 

his model to go beyond the assessing, through the 

quantification of geologic variables of expected gross 

value of resources to the adjustment of gross value 

through the consideration of economic factors. The 

approach means that the geologically determined 

gross value of a given cell is modified in terms of its 

location relative to existing markets and transportation networks at a given time. This method, therefore, may indicate that a geologically less favorable 

area may have advantages of place at a given time 

that make it a better area for exploration than one 

with more encouraging geologic characteristics. 

Still further studies by Harris, in collaboration 

with Brock, Donald, and Euresty (Harris, 1973; unpub. data), have advanced models that also include 

subjectively determined variables. The subjective 

material is obtained from estimates by geologists 

knowledgeable in the area under study as to the 

probabilities of the occurrence of ore in regularly or 

randomly arranged cells. 

These methods are designed to work from known 

to less well known but geologically similar areas 

and are confined in their scope by this approach. 

They provide, nevertheless, excellent supplements to 

the study of areas in which only the surface geology 

is known. Further, they can be adapted to the integration of the geology determined by Griffiths' grid 

drilling with what surface geology is known in each 

drill-hole area. 

It is, of course, apparent that such a huge number 

of holes to such considerable depths (as Griffiths' 

method would require) would not be within the financial resources of any one mining or petroleum company or even of a consortium of them. Thus, it seems 

obvious that, as the program here outlined must be 

planned and executed as a unit, it must be carried out 

by the Federal Government, through the agency of 

the U.S. Geological Survey. The results must be made 

public property as soon as a sufficient number of 

holes to give significant geologic results have been 

drilled in any one major part of the continental area 

of the United States. Once any major segment of the 

drilling has been completed, the data from that and 
MINERAL-R,ESOURCE APPRAISAL AND ANALYSIS 15 

all other sources should be analyzed, probably by the 

Survey's Computer Resources Information Bank 

(CRIB), supplemented by models of the Harris type. 

Then, appropriate areas should be offered for lease to 

mining companies for further and more detailed exploration in somewhat the same manner that areas 

are offered for lease in the potentially oil- and gasbearing regions of the Continental Shelf. For such a 

program to operate efficiently, the areas offered for 

lease would have to be large enough to contain possible worthwhile targets and yet not so large that they 

would be too expensive for any one company to explore in the time allowed before all interest in the 

leased area would have to be given up. Areas already 

being actively prospected by companies or consortia 

would not be offered for lease to other mining organizations, but safeguards would have to be established 

to make certain that areas claimed to be under an 

active program of prospecting actually were being 

so studied. For this program to function properly, it 

probably would be necessary for the U.S. Government to take over all mineral rights to all land in the 

Nation (except areas being actively mined or prospected) under its power of eminent domain. At the 

same time, the Government would have to guarantee 

to the owner of the surface rights, adequate compensation for any damages done to the surface, and 

to the owner of the mineral rights, royalties for any 

material that might be removed from the ground in 

any manner. Legal arrangements would have to be 

made to insure that surface damage and environmental impact were held to a minimum and that the 

surface of the land ultimately would be restored to 

usable conditions, whether or not the exact contours 

of the original surface were actually duplicated. 

Drilling would be a waste of time and money if it 

were done in centers of considerable population or 

industrial activity, but with such advances in technology as solution mining, much more of the subsurface could probably be mined than would at first 

seem possible. The amount of surface and environmental damage caused by the recovery of oil is less 

great than that caused by mining, but whatever the 

exploiting process, all surface areas would have to be 

restored. 

For any tract leased, a time limit would have to be 

placed on exploration, with provisos that part of each 

tract be relinquished by the private exploration organization at regular time intervals so that, at the 

end of a period of perhaps 6 to 8 years, the exploring 

group would be left with one-quarter of the original 

tract, which it must either exploit or drop after a 

fqrther period, perhaps 2 or 3 years. The prospectordiscoverer would have the right, against all other 

persons, to obtain the mining rights to the final remaining fraction of his exploratory lease, but he 

would not be obligated in any way to establish a 

mine in the area unless he wished to do so. If the 

prospector-discoverer and the owner of the mineral 

rights, whether a private person or the Federal or a 

State Government, were unable to reach agreement 

on the payments to be made for the mining rights, 

either party could appeal to a specifically created 

Government judicial or quasi-judicial body to decide 

what recompense the owner of these rights should 

receive. 

Although the granting of rights to mine and to 

prospect would limit the rights of the individual 

property owner, the owner would not lose his property permanently, as he does when the Federal Government expropriates property for such uses as roads 

and public buildings. Therefore, under the right of 

eminent domain, the Government would probably 

find it constitutionally possible to enact such legislation as I have outlined to encourage exploration and 

the exploitation of the Nation's natural resources. 

All geological, geophysical, and geochemical information obtained in the course of exploration and mining of leased tracts would have to be made available 

to the appropriate agency of the Federal Government 

(the U.S. Geological Survey). Further, the Federal 

Government would be able, after a stipulated lapse of 

time, to make public this information in connection 

with other requests for bids for exploration rights to 

parts of the original lease not retained by the original 

lease e. 

It should be emphasized that the information derived from the grid drilling is to be integrated with 

known surface geology and that the mapping and 

geophysical and geochemical work of the Survey 

should build on and expand the data provided by 

drilling. Thus, the Survey's surface programs probably would be concentrated around those holes that 

gave the greatest indications of valuable mineral raw 

materials at depth (solid, liquid, or gaseous) , thereby 

helping to add more rapidly to the workable mineral 

reserves of the Nation. 

It might be argued that the assignments of rights 

to prospect would be on sounder legal grounds if they 

were granted under the auspices of the several 

States. The confusion that would result from 50 

different controlling sets of laws and governing 

bodies might be obviated by the preparation of a 

model statute for such control and its adoption by 

the 50 States. However, areas geologically suitable 

for exploration may well overlap State boundaries, 
16 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBL,JC SEHVICE 

and, even if the same laws were applicable in the two 

or more States involved, the obtaining of a geologically viable concession would be complicated by 

the need to consult, negotiate with, and report to, at 

least two administrative bodies and to comply with 

the requirements of no less than two sets of inspectors. Nor would the information obtained by work in 

more than one State be as easily collated and distributed as it would be if a single Federal agency 

(the U.S. Geological Survey) were to control the 

granting and operation of prospecting concessions. 

Tax laws would have to be altered to permit exploration costs to be deducted as current expenses by 

the exploring organization. Further, these laws 

should allow any actual exploitation, perhaps by a 

reduced depletion allowance, to be carried out a 

fraction more profitably than if the sums spent in 

exploration and exploitation had been invested in 

any average type of economic activity within this 

country. No company, consortium, or individual, is 

going to invest money in petroleum or mineral extraction for fun. Such work is done in the hope of 

making a profit. There are sound arguments for considering mining or petroleum recovery as a more 

hazardous way of investing funds than in, say, the 

making of shoes or the manufacture of flour. Therefore, a somewhat higher rate of return must be allowed the exploiting organization either through tax 

concessions or higher prices. This remains true 

despite the current agitation against "windfall" 

profits. If the first method is adopted, the cost of supplying minerals or fuels from our subsoil would be 

borne by the general public. In the second, the actual 

consumers of the materials so produced would bear 

the cost. Because of the widespread use of minerals 

and fuels or of the products made from them, either 

method would bear about equally on the average 

consumer. 

Much of the mineral-bearing rock found by, or 

with the help of, grid drilling might not at present 

be exploitable competitively with ore bodies now being mined, here or abroad. As world requirements 

grow and technology advances, however, more and 

more of the mineral material so discovered will come 

to be profitably mineable. Thus, returns will be 

achieved from the information developed by the grid 

drilling program far into the future. 

The program here suggested is not designed to be 

a gigantic boondoggle but to be an economically 

sound method of achieving complete knowledge and 

recovery of the mineral and fuel resources that are 

available within the continental limits of the United 

States. Such a system could also be applied to Alaska, 

or to any major area of the world for that matter, 

with equal opportunities for success. 

It is readily apparent that the scheme just outlined to promote prospecting and exploitation of mineral resources in the United States would have to be 

developed in much greater detail than I have presented here. If this program is to be implemented 

effectively, it must consider not only exploration and 

exploitation but also the protection of society in general against the ill effects of such activities. Careful 

and sound planning of these discovery and recovery 

operations, however, should reasonably balance the 

good and ill effects of the finding and the removing 

of mineral raw materials concentrated beneath the 

surface. 

REFERENCES CITED 

Griffiths, J. C., 19·67, Mathematical exploration strategy and 

decisionmaking, in Origin of oil; geology and geophysics 

-World Petroleum Gong., 7th, Mexico, 1967, Proc., V. 

2: London, Elsevier Pub. Co., p. 599-604. 

Griffiths., J. C., and Singer, D. A., 1971, Unit regional value 

of non-renewable natural resources as a measure of potential for development of large regions: Geol. Soc. 

Australia Spec. Pub. 3, p. 227-238. 

Harris, D. P., 1966, A probability model of mineral we·alth: 

Soc. Mining Engineers (A.I.M.E.) Trans., v. 2~3·5, no. 

2, p. 199-216. 

-- 1973, A subjective probability appraisal of metal 

endowment of northern Sonora, Mexico: Econ. Geology, 

v. 68, p. 222,....242; Discussion, p. 1345-1346,. 

Harris, D. P., and Euresty, D., 1969, A preliminary model 

for the economic appraisal of regional :.esources and 

exploration based upon geostatistical analysis and computer simulation: Colorado School Mines Quart., v. 64, 

no. 3, p. 71-98. 

Ridge, J. D., 1968, Exploration for minerals on non-federal 

lands: Earth and Mineral Sci., v. 39, no. 2, p. 19, no. 3, 

p. 27-28. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE IN WATER-RESOURCES POLICY 

By M. GoRDON WoLMAN 

Chairman, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, 

Johns Hopkins University 

"A good rain is the only quick solution to the problem of drought ... Unfortunately a good rain washes 

away more than the drought; it washes away much 

of man's interest in providing for the next one, and 

it washes the supports from under those who know 

that another dry cycle is coming and who urge their 

fellows to make ready for it." In these words, Walter 

Prescott Webb (1954, p. v), the Texas historian, 

enumerated one principle of the politics of water. So 

stated, the principle relates to natural phenomena. 

It is, in fact, a corollary of the political scientist's 

observation that issues in politics are accidental and 

evanescent, not planned and long lived. 

In contrast to these views, many a scientist and 

engineer hopes for a more orderly approach to policy. 

Thus, an engineer discussing Federal water policies 

in the 1930's expressed the hope " ... that the politicians and planners eventually will be guided more 

and more by fact-finding and hydrologic research 

than by politics and social philosophy ... national 

water policy, in regard to both practice and planning, 

should be based upon economic and engineering 

facts ... " (Guy, 1943, p. 312). Although perhaps few 

today would publicly propound sentiments that as .. 

sume such a neutral, or value-free, role of science and 

technology in society, Don K. Price (1954, p. v), in 

his book on government and science, " ... was struck 

by the way in which a professional consensus, based 

on the findings of research of a scientific or semiscientific nature, often brought about the adoption of 

a new public policy and determined the methods of 

its administration." 

At the dedication of a building bearing the name 

of John Wesley Powell, a brief historical review of 

some approaches to the problems of water resources 

in the United States, which keeps these conflicting 

models of chance and planned action in mind, may 

be useful. These two models are not, of course, the 

only ones that have been used to explain government 

expenditures for public works or research. This review emphasizes trends in water quality and quantity and some broad social and economic trends; it 

neglects an analysis of bureaucratic behavior, which 

some analysts have suggested is the major determinant of budgetary decisions (Wildavsky, 1964). 

Such a bureaucracy hypothesis is drawn upon in 

relating the historical findings to possible orientations of future programs in water quantity and 

quality. 

SOME GENERAL TRENDS 

Since 1860, trends in population, gross national 

product, expenditures for public works for water 

supply, sewerage, and flood control, and for waterresources investigations and stream-gaging stations 

have been roughly parallel in the United States. Even 

the value of damages from floods has risen consistently, along with expenditures for flood control. 

As the country has grown, so too has interest and 

activity in water resources. Growth has generally 

been continuous, although each activity shows momentary periods of acceleration or deceleration such 

as the reduction in economic and population growth 

in the 1930's, a time when expenditures for waterresources investigations increased threefold. Since 

World War II, the rate of increase in expenditures 

has followed the growth of the economy, except during the decade 1955-65, the post-Sputnik era, when 

total expenditures for water-resources investigations rose sharply from about $30 per million dollars 

of gross national product to the current rate of 

about $60 per million. 

17 
18 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBL,IC SERVICE 

This graphical view of history suggests that continuity, if not planning, characterizes the development of society and the concomitant development of 

planning and execution of water-resources programs. 

A broad brush and moving averages do demonstrate 

continuity, but they also mask or belie other facets of 

the record. Upon closer inspection, as many observers 

have noted, one can discern distinctive eras and 

cycles, as well as isolated moments when public interest in water quantity and quality was stimulated by 

natural events and political or social crises. 

MAJOR INFLUENCES IN WATER-RESOURCES 

HISTORY IN THE UNITED STATES 

Only some highlights in a well-known history, including legislation, engineering structures, influential literary works, and scientific studies, will be 

touched upon here. Beginning with the Powell era, 

a chronology of significant events in water-resources 

history would start with the passage of the Homestead Act in 1862. That act did not represent the 

start of public interest in the development of the 

West, but it did initiate a boom in westward migra ... 

tion and land settlement, one of several in the 

period from the Civil War to the closure of the public domain. This western orientation can be characterized not only by the Homestead Act but by a 

variety of familiar milestones such as the Timber 

Culture Act (1873), the Desert Land Act (1877), 

the establishment of the Reclamation Service (1902), 

and the diversion of water from the Colorado River 

to the Imperial Valley in 1901. Of special interest 

here was the publication in 1878 of Powell's "Report 

on the Lands of the Arid Region of the United 

States." 

A second period overlapping the first and continuing a strong western flavor includes the conservation 

era of Teddy Roosevelt, characterized by the 1908 

Conservation Conference or the earlier White House 

Conference. Although the act establishing Yellowstone Park in 1872 represented a milestone in the 

concept of preservation, in general, the turn of the 

century conservation movement spearheaded by civil 

servants such as Pinchot, McGee, Leith, and Newell, 

emphasized "wise use" or the "gospel of efficiency," 

as the historian Hays (1959) referred to it, and not 

preservation. 

Depression and the initiation of public works and 

planning characterized the 1930's, a period reviewed 

by W. G. Hoyt (1943), a principal engineer-hydrologist of the U.S. Geological Survey. Hoyt noted that 

during the 1930's, natural catastrophies, floods and 

droughts, occurred during a period of major economic upheaval and changing political philosophy. 

The combination produced the greatest surge in interest in environment and in expenditures for waterresources planning and development that the country 

has experienced. Although the economy as a whole 

dipped, water science and development, along with 

land management, burgeoned. 

The period of rapid economic and population 

growth since the end of World War II has seen both 

a resurgence of development after the wartime hiatus, and the recent environmental movement. Much 

of this recent interest has emphasized, at least vocally, the "Spaceship Earth," or the finite nature of the 

world's resources., and hence conservation with 

greater emphasis upon preservation as opposed to 

development. However, expenditures for major water 

programs and for investigations have risen roughly 

with the economy during the same period. 

This simple sequential history is known by, or at 

least taught to, every American schoolchild. Its recurring themes or near-cyclical character are currently played down by some, perhaps in the misguided view that such a recounting will tend to confirm the notion that "history repeats itself," or that 

such a view of our history leads to cynicism. For better or for worse, still closer inspection begins to 

reveal singular episodes superimposed on these broad 

eras and continuing growth. 

WATER QUANTITY 

In 1888, Powell was directed by the Congress to 

establish the Irrigation Survey. This reflected a 

growing recognition that development of the more 

arid parts of the West would depend heavily upon 

the availability of water. Powell, as his 1878 report 

described, felt strongly that settlers should not be 

encouraged to settle on lands that could not be provided with adequate quantities of water. He believed 

further that land should be parceled out in larger 

units and in such a fashion that settlements could be 

clustered and water made available to assure each 

settler a sufficient share. Powell's approach allied 

science directly with public policy. The hydrographic 

survey was to develop the facts for proper distribu-, 

tion of water and planning of land settlement, and to 

do so rapidly and accurately to the satisfaction of 

Congress and the engineers. Neither, in fact, was 

satisfied. 

Congress became increasingly disturbed that settlement would have to be delayed or prohibited in 

areas that the hydrographic studies showed were too 

dry or for which information was not forthcoming. 

Engineers considered the accompanying topographic 
CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE IN WATER-RESOURCES POLICY 19 

survey misdirected and too general. The Irrigation 

Survey itself was abolished 2 years after its inception. The setback represented the demise of Powell's 

dominance in Federal science and in his relationship 

with the Congress (Manning, 1967). Although many 

today disagree with some of his specific suggestions 

for land settlement, virtually no one denies the prophetic insights in his report on the arid lands. Vision 

and public interest coincided for only a brief moment. Yet, although Powell's policy views and the 

specific agency program may have been eclipsed, the 

Reclamation Service was established 12 years later, 

and the work was continued by the same individuals 

involved in the hydrographic measurements of the 

earlier Irrigation Survey. 

Subsequent history is replete with examples of 

social action precipitated (no pun intended) by the 

vagaries of nature. The Johnstown Flood (1889) 

initiated the first legislation on the safety of dams. 

The flood of 1913 on the Miami River in Ohio not 

only sparked the creation of the Miami Conservancy 

District in 1914 but initiated the classic technical 

studies of hydrology and hydraulics embodied in its 

reports. Creation of the Conservancy District and 

advances in science and engineering represented a 

rare instance when a man and a moment combined 

to advance a prophetic future. Arthur E. Morgan 

(1951), a man of vision, guiding genius behind the 

lV[iami Conservancy District (and later a leader in 

the development of the Tennessee Valley Authority), 

capitalized on peaks of public interest stimulated by 

natural and manmade calamity. 

The flood of 1927 on the Mississippi River stimulated initiation of the "308 Reports" of the U.S. 

Army Corps of Engineers. The Ohio and Mississippi 

River floods of 1936 and 1937 and the floods of 1936 

and 1938 on the Connecticut and other rivers in New 

England led directly to the flood control acts of 1936 

and 1938 and to the initiation of construction of dams 

and reservoirs. Floods and drought in the 1930's provided the ideal stimulus for the maintenance of public and political interest in land and water. As Hoyt 

noted, expansion of the work of the Corps of Engineers, creation of the TV A, the Soil Conservation 

Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service, and the N ationa! Resources Board (1934) (later the National 

Resources Planning Board) and its Water Resources 

Committee were derived from the combination of 

depression, political upheaval, and natural catastrophe. This combination promoted huge expenditures, 

not only for land and water management but also for 

the science and technology needed to support these 

efforts. Once again, however, as in Powell's day, 

Congress decided that too much planning might be a 

bad thing, and in 1943, the National Resources Planning Board was abolished with the provision that no 

other agency pursue the work. 

The recent coming-of-age of flood insurance and 

alternatives other than structural measures to reduce 

flood damages suggests an interesting effect of catastrophe falling upon the "prepared mind." In 1942, 

Gilbert White observed that many alternatives to 

structural measures might be useful in mitigating 

flood damage. In the intervening years, White and 

others amassed information on the effects of flooding 

and on the experience in using these alternatives. 

More than a decade later, a flood insurance act was 

passed, and this year, three decades later, congressional appropriations specifically recognize additional alternatives. 

To the best of our knowledge, no change has taken 

place in the long-term mean runoff or rainfall in 

various regions of the United States over the past 

100 years. Although geologic evidence indicates that 

the floods in 1936 on the Connecticut and Ohio Rivers 

were the greatest in a geologic record representing 

some thousands of years, there is no evidence that 

floods today or during historical times are greater 

than those of the past, or that droughts are deeper 

and longer (Hoyt and Langbein, 1955). Further, we 

have learned that wet years follow wet, and dry follow dry, and that climatic change is the rule, not the 

exception. This unexplained paradox of both a constant mean flow and evidence of climatic change in 

historic and geologic records may reflect both the 

relatively short period of time over which measurements have been made and the subtle nature of 

changes in combinations of different climatic parameters which lead to significant variations in effects. Even without major changes in climate, "extremes" of either drought or flood beyond those we 

have experienced are likely to occur in many areas. 

This is so not only because we can readily envision 

combinations of meteorologic events which have not 

yet chanced to occur, but in addition because the 

longer the record, the greater the likelihood that a 

still larger flood or longer drought will be 

experienced. 

The country has, of course, derived little comfort 

from the evidence that the mean rainfall or climate is 

much as it always was, or that the magnitudes of 

oscillations about the mean are also much as they 

always were. Generally we have responded to both 

low and high flow by building reservoirs. This is true 

both East and West. Not only Los Angeles, but New 

York and other eastern cities have gone long dis-
'20 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBL,IC SERVICE 

tances to provide water for growing cities. Reservoir 

storage in some arid and semiarid regions has reduced streamflow to a point at which loss by evaporation from additional reservoirs has exceeded gains 

from increased storage (Langbein, 1959). For the 

country as a whole, the added quantity of water made 

available by storage equals roughly 15 percent of 

total riverflow; only the Colorado, Pecos, and Upper 

Missouri basins are near maximum levels of regulation (W oilman and Bon em, 1971). Despite the fact 

that large reductions in floodflows have been achieved 

on many rivers, or perhaps because of the fact, the 

public is probably unaware that a finite risk of exceeding the storage capacity continues to exist in 

even the most heavily regulated basins. 

If variability characterizes riverflow in the United 

States, it is not surprising that catastrophic extremes 

have captured public attention. At the same time, in 

the Eastern United States, where variability is least, 

economic growth has produced the earliest investments in reservoirs and aqueducts and has stimulated the most intensive observations of streamflow. 

The longest record and most intensive coverage are 

needed where the variability is both temporally and 

spatially the greatest. Because of the course of our 

history, however, for some time, the availability of 

money coincided with the availability of water to 

provide a surfeit of information in the Northeast and 

a deficit in the drier parts of the country. 

Attempts to grapple with the captious behavior of 

natural streams have clearly influenced public policy. 

Floods and droughts have stimulated investment in 

observation, analysis, and control. At the same time, 

the absence of catastrophe, although it may have 

lulled the public consciousness, has not put it to sleep. 

Thoughtful approaches to public policy, such as the 

institutions propounded by Morgan for the Miami 

River and the Tennessee Valley or the alternatives to 

flood control suggested by White, have achieved acceptance, sometimes riding a wave of catastrophe. 

Perhaps even more important, the public has continued to support fact finding and analysis as the 

population and the economy have grown. This is illustrated perhaps by the coincidence of gaging sta,.. 

tions and economic activity in the humid Eastern 

United States. That a Federal agency believes this 

relationship between economy and science is important is indicated by the following quotation from 

the Geological Survey's Long Range Plan (U.S. Geol. 

Survey, 1964, p. 45). 

The rate of development and use of water in the United 

States, and consequently the ne·ed for water information, 

has expanded faster than the water-resources program of 

the Geological Survey. This discrepancy is shown in [a 

comparison of] professional and technical scientific manpower in the water-resources program [and] industrial 

water use. During the period 19'52-62, water intake by six 

principal water-using industries increased more than 60 

per cent, whereas the scientific manpower of the Survey 

water-resources program increas.ed only 40 per cent. 

From 1960 to 1965, appropriations for water resources rose from $48 to $59 per million dollars of 

GNP. The Survey did not rest its case upon a flood 

or a drought. 

WATER QUALITY 

With regard to water quality, the record is different. With rare exceptions, environmental degrada ... 

tion, or loss in water quality, has had few moments 

comparable with the Mississippi River flood of 1927, 

the Susquehanna flood of 1972, or the New York City 

drought of 1965. For the most part, the chronology 

is characterized by the undramatic increase in sewage generated by more people, or by the periodic introduction and distribution of the products and 

wastes of society, such as DDT, detergents, or radionuclides. What is episodic, virtually random, and unpredictable, is the introduction itself of innumerable 

and wholly new materials, many of them foreign to 

nature. 

Thus it is more difficult to isolate specific reasons 

for the resurgence of an interest in environmental 

quality in the 1960's. Some relate the true awakening 

of public consciousness to the reports of the astronauts and to the magnificent photographs of the lonely Earth in space that appeared on television and on 

the cover of "Life." Others have suggested that the 

barrage of studies of population growth and the 

ubiquitous character of air and water pollution 

struck the consciousness of an affluent leisure population able to enjoy the world of nature. True, there 

have been fish kills, Torrey Canyon and Santa Barbara oil spills, and the publication of "Silent Spring." 

Most of these incidents were not unique and represent some likely probability of error in a growing 

society of immense complexity. The number of such 

events in a given time period is increasing, but their 

frequency with respect to the magnitudes of the 

activities involved may well be decreasing. Acts of 

nature have great impacts on water quality, but for 

the most part they are ignored. The principal impact 

acknowledged comes from the scale of human activity, and the effect is primarily cumulative, and not 

episodic. 

An equally important distinction between the place 

of catastrophe in water-quality policy and that in 
CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE IN W ATER-RESOURGES POLICY 21 

water-quantity policy is that, with few exceptions, 

degradation in water quality in this country has been 

less immediately and directly related to massive human suffering. Although water-quality-related disasters continue to occur, happily one must go back in 

history for good examples such as typhoid fever epidemics in Lowell and Lawrence, Mass., in 1890. 

These epidemics were river borne, and they were not 

unique. Again, however, politics, science, and catastrophe were joined. In 1885, the Commonwealth of 

Massachusetts had passed "an act to protect the 

purity of inland waters of the state." This act led to 

the establishment of the Lawrence Laboratory and, 

under the leadership of Sedgewick (1911), to the culmination of the movement for sanitation based upon 

an emerging science and technology. The remarkable 

results of this movement to improve the environment as a means of protecting human health are seen 

in the striking decrease in typhoid fever in the 

United States between 1900 and 1930, a decrease 

which parallels the introduction of public water supplies and treatment facilities and the growth of systems of sewerage and sewage treatment (Wolman 

and Bosch, 1963). 

Because the history and timing of response to 

water-quality problems appear to differ markedly 

from the response to problems of water quantity 

(save in the penchant for building things), it is useful to look more closely at the history of the quality 

of the Nation's waters. Unfortunately, as the Director of the Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Council on Environmental Quality, and the authors of studies reconstructing this history have observed, the record available for the purpose is exceedingly weak. Some examples must suffice 

-and it is well to keep in mind in a review of water 

quality that before Columbus, the Saline River was 

saline, and the Missouri muddy. 

Early histm·y 

Records indicate that dissolved solids in the Illinois River have increased roughly 30 percent and 

chlorides on the Ohio about 50 percent since the turn 

of the century. Apparently these constituents began 

to increase in Lakes Erie and Ontario at about the 

same time. In the same period, however, salinity on 

the Colorado rose 100 percent (see Wolman, 1971, for 

these and other general changes in river quality). 

Most changes in dissolved solids resulting from industrialization or from agriculture, as well as 

changes in sediment content, appear to have been 

progressive rather than abrupt. Meade and Trimble 

(1974) have shown, for example, that the sediment 

content of rivers in the Southeastern United States 

continues to reflect loads supplied from the watersheds during the height of cultivation in the last 

century, despite the presence of reservoirs upstream 

and recent changes in land use which have reduced 

the supply of sediment. In contrast, on the Colorado 

River, construction of major dams and reservoirs 

abruptly reduced: or eliminated the movement of sediment downstream. 

Fish populations in lakes and rivers apparently 

fluctuated significantly even before the 20th century. 

On the Delaware River, fish catches declined as a 

result of intensive fishing and the use of weirs and 

nets. Elimination of weirs and other obstacles about 

1885 apparently permitted a resurgence of the shad 

population. The shad catch rose to a peak in 1900 and 

declined sharply by 1910 (Kiry, 1974). In the Great 

Lakes, marked changes have occurred in the composition of species of fish. Perch, for example, have completely replaced pike and herring in the Lake Erie 

harvest; total production continues to be about 50 

million pounds of fish per year (Beeton, 1969, p. 

175). 

Dissolved-oxygen levels in the Hudson River in the 

vicinity of New York fell rapidly from about 1900 to 

1915 as the result of the large quantities of untreated sewage delivered to the river. On the Potomac, as early as 1804, merchants in Georgetown 

(now part of the District of Columbia) were petitioning Congress to dredge sediment from the river. 

By 1883, Major Hains reported a stench from sewage sludge and sediment which he thought "inappropriate to the official residence of the first magistrate of the land" (Geyer and others, 1965) p. 30). In 

general, fear of typhoid fever, foul smells, and the 

unsightly condition of the rivers in the Eastern 

United States stimulated the initiation of .measures 

to control pollution. Recent surveys of citizen's definitions of pollution continue to emphasize sights and 

smells and not the esoteric surrogates experts measure. Efforts at control of sewage effluents in many 

eastern rivers from the early part of this century 

until the 1930's were at best able to maintain relatively low levels of dissolved oxygen because of the 

growth of population and industry. By 1930 or 1940, 

anaerobic conditions prevailed in many rivers adjacent to metropolitan centers. 

The last forty years 

Large investments in sewage-treatment works, beginning in the 1930's, began to raise dissolvedoxygen levels and river quality, for example, on 

the Potomac at Washington, D.C., and on the Missis-
22 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

sippi at St. Paul, Minn. In seeking models for public 

response to water problems, it must be noted that 

although the conservation ethic of the day contributed, investments made during the New Deal for 

sewage-treatment plants were viewed primarily as a 

vehicle to improve the economy and to provide employment. Ironically, in all likelihood they did little 

to improve the economy, but they did improve the 

rivers. 

Some rivers, including the Delaware and the Ohio, 

may have reached their lowest quality by the mid1940's during World War II. A section of the Delaware 12 miles long in the vicinity of Philadelphia 

was without oxygen, and sulfides blackened ships in 

the harbor (Kiry, 1974). Expenditures for sewagetreatment plants rose after the war. By about 1952, 

minimum levels of several parts per million dissolved 

oxygen prevailed in the Delaware as they do today. 

The Ohio River Water Sanitation Commission, created by Compact in 1948, had generated more than 

$1 billion of State and local funds for pollution control by 1965 (Cleary, 1967, p. 126). The river and 

many of its tributaries began gradually to improve 

in quality. These expenditures for pollution control 

after World War II seem to have been inspired by 

prosperity, not depression, and they moved forward 

without benefit of either natural catastrophe, political fanfare, or popular slogans; however, they were 

not without local popular support and competent 

technicians, who occasionally had the brilliant persuasivene·ss of an Ed Cleary (1967) of ORSANCO 

armed with a toothless compact. 

A succession of Federal water pollution control 

acts marked the late 1950's and 1960's. The most 

recent peak of interest in the environment sparked 

the passage of "clean water" legislation in the 1970's. 

The most recent act, the Water Pollution Control Act 

Amendments of 1972, was predicated on the assumption: that waterways should not be used for the 

dumping of wastes; that effluents, not ambient water 

quality, would be a better basis for regulation ; that 

technology could be depended upon to treat or control 

the wastes that a technological society had generated; and that point sources should be given priority 

for control. 

Currently, New York City, in the middle of a $4 

billion program, is spending at the rate about $1 

million per day in the construction of sewers and 

treatment plants. According to "Engineering NewsRecord" (May 30, 1974, p. 14), this amounts to $143 

per person annually, nearly five times more than 

Seattle, the second largest spender. As a result, dissolved-oxygen levels in the harbor have risen to 50 

percent of saturation, the highest level since the 

early 1900's. Although New York had expended large 

sums on treatment plants from 1950 to 1965, the 

city's present heroic effort began in 1966 after the 

passage of State and Federal pollution control 

legislation. 

The past 5 years has also seen a rapid rise in private expenditures for pollution control. Curiously, 

however, the interest that peaked in 1970 has not 

been accompanied by a comparable commitment of 

public money since that time. Expenditures for public sewerage facilities for the country as a whole have 

risen continuously since 1856, but in the past year 

these have begun to level off. This year's expenditures for public treatment works are likely to be less 

than those of last year (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973b). A variety of reasons have been 

given for this recent decline, including insufficient 

funds for public works, bureaucratic wrangling, and 

the state of the economy. Whatever the reasons, total 

discharge of pollutants from both point and nonpoint 

sources may well be continuing to rise. 

Studies of the recent past have suggested, as yet, 

no clear patterns of response in the water environment to the new pollution control efforts. A U.S. 

Council on Environmental Quality (1972, p. 14) 

study suggests that from 1957 to 1970 dissolved oxygen may have risen at 50 percent of the sites S·ampled in the study and declined at 23 percent. The U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency ( 1973a) reported 

roughly similar figures, comparing the 5-year pe1riod 

1963-68 with the following 5 years to 1972. From the 

council study, improvement seems greate•st where 

point sources of pollutants dominate, and no trend is 

evident in agricultural basins. Levels of phosphates 

and nitrates in streams continue to increase in many 

reaches, apparently as a result of inflow of detergents and industrial effluents in some places and of 

f ertilize·rs in others. 

Water quality has declined, or on occasion improved, as a result of the activities of man. Until recently, the greatest changes may be described as coincidental and not directly related to a concern for 

the quality of ~the water resource itself. Thus, development of farming in the forested East produced 

vast quantitie•s of sediment which drastically alte·red 

the waterways. Abandonment of farming in turn reduced this yield, and lake and rive·r quality improved. 

Similarly, in the drive to eliminate typhoid fever, the 

rivers bene·fited. Only in the 1930's did the effort turn 

principally to the waterway.s themselves, and, e·ven 
CRISIS AND GAT ASTROPHE IN W ATER-RESOUR,CES POLICY 23 

then, a primary stimulus to action was the concern 

for unemployment and the state of the economy. Interest in water quality accelerated after World War 

II and may have peaked in 1970 or 1971. 

Sequential ·changes in water quality and attention 

to them are not a response to natural catastrophe and 

are only occasionally a response to dramatic political 

or economic events. Indeed, political enthusiasm and 

expenditure·s for engineering works have run well 

ahead of the rate of acquisition of adequate knowledge about the quality of the wate·r. Proposed expenditure's for water pollution control currently run 

as high as $4 billion to $6 billion per year. This may 

or may not be an appropriate amount. Unfortunately, 

although major efforts are cle-arly needed, information about the quality of the water it,self is too poor 

to permit sound evaluation of the efficiency of these 

large expenditures, or of alternative strategies for 

efficient use of increasingly scarce monies. Similarly 

unfortunate is the absence of measures of the social 

costs of polluted water. Lack of knowledge about 

water quality and about social cost·s clouds public debate over the appropriate level of effort to be expended in water pollution control. 

LESSONS FROM THE HISTORICAL RECORD 

STIMULANTS TO INTEREST IN WATER: THE MODELS 

Historically, ·catas,trophe, whether natural flood or 

manmade depression, episodically stimulated investment in water management. However, changes in 

water quantity, and particularly changes in water 

quality, although they may have influenced public 

policy (a policy about floods without floods. is unlikely) have not been the dominant influence on expenditures for public works or for scientific investigations. 

of water resources. As the Geological Survey has 

recognized, the budget is mos·t close~ly tied to the 

broad social and economic march of the country. 

Dominant social concerns have broadly determined 

historical behavior, and more often than not, legi,slat.ion and action have preceded or even contravened 

scientific understanding; the Desert Land Act based 

on the hope that trees would induce rainfall to aid 

settlement, and the expectation that forests would 

control major floods are cases in point. Yet the results 

of these actions, often inefficient and sometimes ineffective, can be salutary and are not all bad. Then 

too, the very passions, sometimes spurred by catastrophe, that provoked action stimulate sdentific effort, which may serve to redirect public policy at a 

later time·. Progress in sanitation suggests that even 

between the peaks of political passion, gains can be 

made. One cannot, and apparently need not, wait for 

that rare combination of remarkable man, prepared 

science, and natural or manmade catastrophe. At the 

same time, one can be prepared to strike when the 

iron of public interest is hot. 

The record suggests that a combination of continuous investment in science, the ponderous momentum 

of society, and preparedness to make quantum steps 

when opportunity affords may not be a poor strategy 

for a scientific agency. Some may lament that such a 

strategy too closely parallels the political scientists' 

model of a typical bureaucracy protecting its flanks 

while inching slowly forward (Tullock, 1965), an 

image of caution not boldness, of dullness not creativity. The image is not warranted. Continuity i·s 

desirable in scientific inquiry and particularly so in 

the observation of hydrologic phenomena. The relatively smooth growth curve that characterizes the 

history of water-re,source's investigations may be 

rational both in terms of the agency's needs and 

those of the society. At the same time ·that the country seeks guidance over the long term, it demands 

creative response to the problems of the day as it perceives them .. 

TRENDS TOWARD NATIONAL RESPONSffiiLITY 

In addition to a mode,st test of some hypotheses 

about the causes and stimuli of interest in water resources, even this brief historical review provides 

evidence of the continuing trend toward national and 

away from State and local responsibility for water 

management. Approaches to both water quantity and 

quality reflect this trend. The visitation of catastrophe in the form of floods and droughts on any one. 

section of the country has, since the 1930's, for example, led to the increasing assumption of responsibility at the national level. The Flood Control Act of 

1938 liberalized cost-·sharing provisions for the Federal flood control projec~ts and relieved the direct 

beneficiaries of major responsibility for reimbursement. More recently, the devastating floods associated with Tropical Storm Agnes in 1972 produced 

modifications of the flood insurance act of 1968. Re ... 

quirements for land-use planning in flood-prone lands 

were strengthened, and the level of premium payment's required of the beneficiaries was significantly 

reduced. 

In the field of water quality, the tendency toward 

the assumption of national responsibility is also 

apparent in the passage of the Central Arizona Project by the Congress in 1970. Recognizing that the 

water available in the Colorado River was already 

overcommitted in this country, and further, that the 

United States had recently accepted a commitment to 
24 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

supply Mexico with a specified quantity of "unsalty" 

water each year, Congress provided that the Nation, 

not the region, bear the costs of meeting the added 

burdens of the recent agreement with Mexico on 

water quality. 

Similarly, it may be ironic, but perhaps understandable, that Arthur Morgan's pioneering effort to 

"internalize the externalitie,s," that is, to approach 

water management on a regional basis under local 

authority, i~s currently in danger of being dismantled 

as Federal and State powers over pollution abate--

ment grow. Such conflict between local, State, and 

Federal government is, of course, a logical consequence of further expansion of the Federal and State 

interest reflected in the Water Pollution Control Act 

Amendments of 1972. 

MODEST PROPOSALS 

The fundamental work of an agency such as the 

Geological Survey consists of programs of observation and analysis which customarily grow incrementally as the needs of society expand. Over time, 

responsibility is assumed for a long list of activities. 

Many of these cannot be summarily abandoned. As 

custodian of the knowledge of long-term trends in the 

hydrologic cycle, for example, the Geological Survey 

cannot ~simply halt all observational program·s directed toward this objective. Similarly, society would 

be ill served by wholesale abandonment of interest in 

specific facets of the hydrologic cycle. This does not 

me·an that nothing is ever abandoned, or that programs never change, or that the emphases do not 

change. Rather, it means that additions and new 

e·mphases must be selected from a current array of 

public interests and de1mands. Some of these may 

re~quire radiclll departures in attitude or approach, 

even if not in apparent content. The pre:sent scene 

abounds in issues., concerns, and catastrophes. These 

i~ssues and the de1mand for ·continuity provide some 

basis for selection of priorities. 

The issues are familiar. First, the evidence is good 

that although the fervor may have died in the breasts. 

of some environmentalists, much of the American 

public is convinced that they want a better environment. Second, popul,ation will continue to grow, even 

at a reduced rate, for several decade's, and continuing numbers of people will want to share in the fruits 

of growth. Third, energy has recently become a part 

of American consciousness. Fourth, in the world as a 

whole, drought, hunger, and starvation are daily 

realities. From the standpoint of an interest in wate~r, 

these issues all involve two points of view, first the 

long view of wha:t may be happening to the resource 

as a whole, and second, a detailed knowledge of how 

water is used and affected by specific human 

activitie·s. 

WATER-QUALITY APPRAISAL: A UNIFIED APPROACH 

The ecological truism that "one man's garba.ge is 

another man's meat" or that things are connected, 

provides a starting point for the first approach. Legal 

fiat cannot dis,connect the parts of the hydrologie 

cycfe or the cycles of materials between land, air, and 

water. Given the major interest in environment and 

the large sums to be expended in behalf of its improvement, a major effort to structure a comprehensive program of evaluation of water quality covering 

the continental and coastal waters is needed. Like 

the Survey's emerging studies of regulated water 

systems (Benson and Carrter, 1973), such a program 

must involve a knowledge of sources, transport, storage, and sinks of re,siduals to the water environment. 

Acid rain in New England and the linkage of ground 

water and land disposal illustrate the interactions of 

land, air, and water. 

Today's map of areas of major pollution potential 

is virtually identical with one made in 1936; the areas 

of urbanization have simply grown larger, and more 

pri,stine areas have been invaded. Unfortunately, for 

most areas, we know neither the sources nor the sinks 

of materials entering the lakes, rivers, and estuaries. 

The relative contributions of point and nonpoint1 

sources vary from 10 to 90 percent. Trace metals and 

other minor constituents are som.etimes found in 

high concentrations in the water and bottom sediments. Not only is their dis1tribution poorly known, 

but we cannot compute with satisfactory accuracy 

the rate of removal of such materials should new 

sources be completely controlled. The prospects for 

permanent burial or for mobilization of both nutrients and toxic material1s are poorly known (Symons, 

1969). In the long run, the! estuaries and continental 

shelves are the probable sinks for pollutants if river 

regulation is not too extensive. Only very recently, 

however, has a true compilation of the transport of 

dissolved and suspended materials to the continental 

margins been published (Curtis and others, 1973; 

Leife·ste, 197 4). This is based on limited information, 

and data on other materials are even more meage·r. 

The purpo.se of a comprehens,ive program of appraisal is to assist in the prediction of the impact of 

policy decisions. Because this requires a knowledge of 

proce,ss, observation must be accompanied by continuing analysis. Parameters chosen for study will 

include meaningful biologieal characteristics as well 
CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE IN WATER-RESOURCES POLICY 25 

as significant physical features and inorganie substances. In depth and scope, the inquiry may complement the needs of law enforcement, but the two purposes are not synonymous. For example, a pollution 

index may be a useful monitoring tool, but such an 

index may mask the interrelationships needed to define effective policy instruments. Similarly, although 

regulators need access to facts and competent scientific assistance, the hiS<toric record has shown that 

mission-oriented agencie:s may become addicted to 

demonstration rather than evaluation (Schiff, 1962). 

The piece's of such a program have, of course, received attention. Current efforts, however, appear 

both too limited and too fragmented relative to our 

presumed commitment to environmental quality. Perhaps the Water Resources Council can be made responsible for spelling out a truly broad mission for 

the agencies involved, not as a treaty but as a comprehensive plan. As the observer of water and the 

possessor of the sense of time, the Survey has a 

major role to play. 

WATER AND CLIMATIC CHANGE 

Famine in Africa and elsewhere calls attention to 

another facet of water resources that requires a long 

view but that has consequences directly related to 

problems of current public policy. What are· the characteristics of climatic and hydrologic variations, and 

what is the level of uncertainty appropriate to the 

planning of human activities? As the history of 

Colorado River development illustrates, human experience, and particularly local experience, can only 

include patches of the reco~d. Even the best of planning using stochastic concepts is unlikely to encompass some unexpected long-term trends; hence, shortage and surfeit may be mitigated but are not likely 

to be eliminated. The consequences of ce.rtain assumptions about hydrologic variability are becoming 

even more painfully evident today, as shown by the 

relation of the destruction of grassland and the recent dependence on wells in sub-Saharan Africa. 

The problem of climatic variability is perhaps of 

even more significance in a broader oontext. Much 

current thinking is based upon too simple a concept 

of equilibrium or balance in nature. The record reveals that the entire landscape and the natural biota 

associated with it may undergo significant alte·rations 

from what we presume today to be a condition of 

equilibrium or stability, when such alterations are 

triggered by a succession of years of climatic and 

hydrologic change. Such changes in the past, for example, may have produced rate·s of erosion in the 

Midwest which exceeded those produced by farming, 

and they have resulted in the filling and excavation of 

the valleys of the Southwest a number of times. Public policies based on the as1sumption that men are responsible, as some policies were in the 1930's, may be 

both costly and doomed to failure. 

WATER USE: DEMAND, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, 

AND MASS BALANCES 

The Geological Survey has long had responsibility 

for measuring or estimating the withdrawal and 

"use" of water in the United States. These estimates 

are classically viewed as measures to be matched 

against estimates of supply, as part of the process of 

developing public policies for resource allocation. As 

so-ealled needs, or requirements, on the use ·side have 

risen, however, it has become increasingly evident 

that evaluation of policy alternatives requires a deeper knowledge of the demand and supply relationshi·p. 

Not only must the· use of differing quantities of 

water of a given quality be measured, but inquiry is 

needed into the economic and social factors that lead 

to particular choi·ces. We need to know not only how 

much water of what kind is used, but also why. 

Obviously the .study of water use in every kind of 

industrial, commercial, or household activity is unwarranted. Clearly, horwever, production functions 

providing explicit information on the role of wate·r in 

major economic activities and on the way in which irt 

is used and transformed are es,sential to future 

policy choices. The widespread intere,s.t in energy 

makes analyses of the amounts of water used and the 

changes in water quantity and quality in the ene·rgy 

industry imperative. Considering their importance, 

current estimates of quantitie~s of water needed for 

various energy conversion processes seem unnecessarily conjectural. Work has been started by the 

Survey and by others (Delson and Frankel, in press) 

in some of these fields. Additional effort in the energy 

industry, in agriculture, and perhaps in several other 

major sectors of the economy may be warranted. The 

use of production functions (Minhas and others, 

197 4; Lof and Kneese, 1968) and mass balance frameworks for studies of specific activities (Bower and 

others, 1972) will provide additional tools for measuring the effects of various activities on the water 

resource, for es.timating needs for specific data or research, and for evaluating the probable response of 

diffe·rent activities to different policies affecting 

water resource!s. 

The Government Accounting Office noted that the 

budget for true research in the understanding and 

techniques of improving water quality is quite S•mall 

-a Montana rancher recently referred to a disease 
26 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

she called "lackadata." Cries for research and for 

data can, of course, be e·xcuses for inaction. As complete knowledge is unattainable, action cannot wait. 

Because this is so, scientific inquiry and appraisal of 

the kind described abov~in current environmental 

jargon, "evaluation" -must accompany action. The 

argument is sometimes sound that we must do 

something to find out what happens. Unfortunately, 

we usually do something but rarely find out what 

happens. There will be no excuse 20 years from now 

for "lackadata" disease where reclamation following 

mining for coal or for shale oil in the West is concerned. A proper study of the impact on water resources of such activities as energy conversion or 

mining, however, demands elaboration of a plan of 

study before activities begin and a scheme of financing to assure the necessary longevity. 

OBJECTIVES AND HOPES 

Studies of long-term trends and variability in 

water quality and water quantity, as noted earlier, do 

not consist simply of data -collection. Similarly, 

evaluation of demands and uses of water by man are 

more than hydrologic budgets. Adequate understanding of each requires an inquiry into the dynamics of 

processes. Hopefully, the results of such inquiry will 

lead to better understanding of the way in which 

human and environmental syste~ms work and an improved basis for prediction of probable interactions, 

if not of probable futures. New concerns for energy 

and for conservation in the United States may stimulate research in water resources in directions promising greater utility abroad, particularly in the less 

developed world. While we seek solutions to our own 

legal, social, and technological problems, a search for 

efficiency in water and energy use coupled with attempts to minimize environmental impacts may aid 

this process. 

Most of the major issues of the day-environment, 

growth, food and famine, cities, and energy-involve 

water. All are crises in that people today are poor 

and starving. None of the questions that confront us 

in the field of water quantity and quality can be 

properly called a crisis, however, if that word implies 

a short time scale. As they have always been, the 

problems of water quantity and quality are perpetual. 

The ability to take advantage of the political moment, or the awakened public consciousness, by virtue of a disaster or an election may determine the 

extent to which these fleeting moments of interest 

are well used in the slow business of improving the 

ability of the public and its representatives to make 

wise decisions about the future. 

REFERENCES CITED 

Beeton, A. M., 1969, Changes in the environment and biota 

of the Gr~eat Lakes, in Eutrophication-causes, consequences, .corrective;s,....--symposium [106·7] Proc.: Washington, D.C., Natl. Acad. Sci., p. 150-187. 

Benson, M. A., and Carter, R. W., 1973, A national study 

of the streamflow data-collection program: U.S. Geol. 

Survey Water-Supply Paper 2028, 44 p. 

Bower, B. T., Lof, G. 0. G., and Hearen, W. M., 1972, 

Residuals management in pulp and paper production: 

Nat. Resources J o~ur., v. 11, p. 605--623. 

Cleary, E. J., 1967, The ORSANCO story-Water quality 

management in the Ohio valley under an interstate 

compact: Baltimore, Md., Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 

335 p. 

Curtis, W. F., Culbertson, J. K., and Chase, E. B., 1973, 

Fluvial-sediment discharge to the oceans from the conterminous United States: U.S. Geol. Survey Circ. 670, 

17 p. 

Delson, J. K., and Frankel, R. J., in press·, Residuals management in mining coal and p·roducing power: Washington, D.C., Resources for the Future. 

Gey~er, J. C., Carpenter, J. H., Pritchard, D. W., Renn, C. 

E., Scott, D. C., and Wolman, M. G., 1965, A research 

p:r:ogram for the Potomac River: District of Columbia 

Dept. Sanitary Eng., and Maryland State' Dep~t. Health, 

Bur. Environ. Hygiene, 143 p. 

Guy, D. J., 1943, [Discussion of Hoyt, W. G., 1943] Unusual ev·ents and their relation to Federal water policies: 

Am. Soc. Civil Engineers Trans., v. 108, p. 309--312. 

Hays, S. P., 1959, Conservation and the gospel of efficiency: 

Cambridge, Mass., Harvard Univ. Press, 297 p. 

Hoyt, W. G., 1943, Unusual events and their reht.tion to 

Federal water policies: Am. Soc. Civil Engineers Trans., 

v. 108, p. 290--303 (Discussion, p. 309--312). 

Hoyt, W. G., and Langbein, W. B., 1955, Floods: Princeton, 

N. J., Princeton Univ. Press, 469· p. 

Kiry, P. R., 1974, An historical look at the water quality 

of the Delaware River estuary to 1973: Acad. Nat. Sci. 

Philadelphia Dept. Limnology Contr. 4, 76· p. 

Langbein, W. B., 1959, Water yield and reservoir storage 

in the United States: U.S. Geol. Survey Girc. 409, 5 p. 

Leife,ste, D. K., 1974, Dissolved-solids discharge to the oceans 

from the conterminous United States: U.S. Geol. Survey Circ. 685, 8 p. 

Lof, G. 0. G., and Knees~e, A. V., 19·6.S, The economics of 

water utilization in the beet sugar industry: Baltimore, 

Md., Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 125 p. 

Manning, T. G., 1967, Government in science-the U.S. 

Geological Survey, 1867--1894: [Lexington, Ky.], Univ. 

Kentucky Press, 2'57 p. 

Meade,. R.. H., and Trimble, S. W ., 197 4, Changes in sediment loads in rivers of the Atlantic drainage of the 

United States since 1900, in Symposium on effects of 

man on the interface of the hydrological cycJ.e with the 

physical environment: Internatl. Assoc. Hydro I. Sci., 

IAHS--AISH Pub. 113, p. 99--104. 

iMinhas, B. S., Parikh, K. S., and Srinivasan ,T. N., 1974, 

Toward the structure of a production function for 

wheat yields with da,ted inputs of irrigation water: 

Water Resources Research, v. 10, no. 3, p. 383--393. 

Morgan, A. E., 1951, The Miami Conservancy District: New 

York, McGraw Hill, 504 p. 
CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE IN W ATER-RESOURJCES POLICY 27 

Powell, J. W., 1878, Report on the lands of the arid region 

of the United States, with a more detailed account of 

the lands of Utah: U.S. 45th Cong., 2d s·ess., House 

E·xec. Doc. 73, 195 p. 

Price, D. K., 1954, Government and scienc.e: New York, 

New York Univ. Press, 203 p. 

Schiff, A. L., 1962, Fire and water; scie:n:tific heresy in the 

Forest Service: Cambridge, Mass., Harvard Univ. Press, 

2·25 p. 

Sedgewick, W. T., 1911, Principles of sanitary science and 

the public health: New York, Macmillan, 368 p. 

Symons, J. M., 1969, .ed., Water quality behavior in reservoirs: U.S. Public Health 8ervice Pub. 1930, 616 p. 

Tullock, Gordon, 1965, The politics of bureaucracy: Washington, D.C., Public Affairs Press, 228 p. 

U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, 1972, Environmental 

quality; the third annual report of the Council ***: 

Washington, D.C., U.S. Govt. Printing Office, 450 p. 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1973a, Water quality 

inventory report: Washington, D.C., U .. S. Govt. Printing Office. 

--- 1973b, The economics of clean water-1973: Washington, D.C., U.S. Govt. Printing Office, 120 p. 

U.S. Geological Survey, 1964, Long range plan for resource surveys; investigations and research programs 

of the United State·s Geological Survey: Washington, 

D.C., U.S. Govt. Printing Office, 75 p. 

Webb, W. P., 1954, More warter for Texas: Austin, Tex., 

Univ. Texas Press, 69 p. 

White, G. F., 1942, Human adjustments to floods; a geographical approach to the flood problem in the United 

States: Chicago Univ. De.pt. Geography Research 

Paper 57, 236 p. 

Wi,ldavsky, Aaron, 1964, The politics of the budgetary 

process: Boston, Mass., Little Brown & Co., 216 p. 

Wollman, Nathaniel, and Bonem, G. W., 1971, The outlook 

for water: quality, quantity, and national growth: Baltimore, Md., Johns Hopkins, U niv. Press, 286· p. 

Wolman. Abel, and Bosch, H. M., 1963, Community water 

systems in the United States, their protection and 

their impact on health, in Natural resources, v. 1 of 

United Nations Conference on Application of Science 

and Technology for the Bene·fit of the Less Developed 

Countries: Washington, D.C., U.S. Govt. Printing 

Office, p. 2·54-168. 

Wolman, M. G., 1971, The Nation's rivers: Science, v. 174, 

p. 905-918. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND EARTH SCIENCES 

IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

By BEATRICE E. WILLARD 

Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Office of the President 

It is a special honor to be with you for the dedication of the John Wesley Powell Building of the 

U.S. Geological Survey. It is most fitting that this 

symposium be held to commemorate that great 

geologist-explorer whose vision led to the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey, and to direct our thoughts ahead to the contributions earth 

sciences can make to the problems ahead. 

As a Westerner, familiar from childhood with 

the landscape Powell brought to the attention of 

the Nation and the world by his courageous scientific explorations, I have long been an admirer 

of Powell's work. The understanding of the geologic 

processes that produced this landscape contributes 

essential insight to the work of the Council on Environmental Quality, just as it has long made a 

major contribution to my professional competence 

and has be,en a source of continuing personal fascination. 

Our two sciences have much in common. They 

both look at landscape from the process systems 

viewpoint-mentally seeing hundreds, thousands, 

even millions of years into the past, and, using 

this perspective, determining what the future 

might hold. They both, as sciences, have discovered 

basic principles about the operation of Earth's 

landscapes that can assist man in adapting toharmonizing with-Earth's processes, if the principles are accepted and used. 

If John Wesley Powell were alive today, he obviously would be proud of the many laudable scientific accomplishments of the U.S. Geological Survey, and he would be pleased at the expansion of 

its work into the oceans and Arctic regions. However, he would be astounded at the huge desert lake 

that bears his name and mortified that man could 

28 

allow the submergence of land of such rare beauty 

and scientific value so that an engineering technique might be used to solve a political problem. I 

mention this distasteful fact only because it sounded 

an alert to citizens and, together with many other 

signs of environmental deterioration in the 1950's 

and 1960's, led to awakening the Congress to the 

great need for a National Environmental Policy 

Act. 

In preparing for this auspicious occasion, I kept 

asking myself, "How would Dr. Powell want the 

Nation to use earth sciences were he alive today?" 

As a great student of nature and in tune with the 

natural processes operating in our landscape, he 

would urge our acceptance of the basic principles 

of landscape into the fiber of our thinking and action. He would insist that we choose these principles as our guidelines for decisionmaking, rather 

than political expendiency, economics, and development for growth's sake alone. He would utilize 

these basic landscape principles, as most scientists 

today do, as the framework for all action. He would 

com.municate them in meaningful ways to the Nation's citizenry, the Congress, agency personnel, 

and administrators, so that these principles might 

permeate thought and action as our Constitution 

and Bill of Rights do. 

I find it continuingly beneficial to reexamine the 

basic principles of the earth sciences and how they 

can guide thinking and action about landscape. 

The first principle is by far the most important, 

yet hardest to accept: Everything affects everything else. This principle demands that we question the many ramifications of human action and 

choose the path that has the most overall positive 

effects, after taking into account long-range values 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND EARTH SCIENCES IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 29 

and short-term benefits. This demand became law 

as part of the National Environmental Policy Act 

of 1969, in the requirement to prepare environmental-impact statements-analyses of the ramifications of human actions. 

The second principle is that landscape is a mosaic 

of dynamic systems (earth systems, ecosystems) 

comprising physical components (rocks, landscape 

features, soil, climate, water), biological components (plants, animals, humans), and the intricate 

dynamic processes that operate among these two 

types of components (erosion, deposition, tectonic 

movements, .cycling, competition, symbiosis, evolution, succession, politics, and economics, to name a 

few). In these systems, all components have a role 

integrated with the whole and are inseparable from 

the whole. 

This second principle amplifies the first and 

makes the systems approach to research and decisionmaking mandatory. The systems-analysis approach requires a truly interdisciplinary team approach, where each member is interacting with 

each other member of the team in the design, planning, and conduct of research and data analysis. 

This approach precludes the possibility of omitting 

from analysis those lesser known or more difficult 

parts of the systems, because, to research, those 

gaps in knowledge of the system show up as blanks 

in the diagrammatic models of the system that 

block further analysis. The Western coal-mining 

study of a set of interacting local, regional, national, and global systems, rather than "rock in the 

box," encompasses the systems approach to a degree. It is encouraging to see systems. analysis being applied to solid-waste management, and the 

resulting much more efficient use of time, minerals, 

energy, and land. 

The third principle is that components of landscape systems have limits to their functioning 

such as melting points, freezing points, denaturing 

points, dehydration limits, nutrient limits, stress 

and tension limits, and absorption limits. These 

various parameters, interacting, describe the operational perimeters of the biological and physical 

systems and therefore dictate the characteristics 

of ecosystems. Learning what these parameters are 

and how they operate enables man to make more 

precise analyses and to draw up wiser plans for resource management. Projects designed with the operational framework of the system in constant view 

can avoid or mitigate problems that arise from 

i~gnorance or oversight of these limits. For example, 

a long-range view of national materials policy from 

the perspective of this principle could recognize 

these points and limit use of materials now, so as 

to prolong the supply of resources for the benefit 

of future generations. 

The fourth principle is that components of ecosystems, operating through complex interlocking 

biological and physical processes, define a feature 

of all systems, ·which ecologists call "carrying capacity." Phy,sicists call it a "breaking point," "fatigue point," "stress point." Whatever the term, it 

is a highly useful concept in wise management of 

systems. Environmental analyses that include determination of this feature for various human activities will show the way to avoid many of the 

overload characteristics that we see in air, streams, 

lakes, forests, and ranges. Standards set with an 

understanding of carrying capacity, which encompasses the concept of tolerance limits of organisms 

and physical factors, will work to bring man's activities into balance with ecosystems. Carryingcapacity determination, although difficult and complex to calculate, has been successfully done in 

engineering, agriculture, and wildlife management 

for decades. It is beginning to be applied in recreation resource management and in regional planning, 

as in the Pacific Northwest. 

The recent investigations on "limits to growth" 

are an effort to determine a global carrying capacity 

for basic resources essential to life. It stands to reason that as all material resources are finite, the 

sooner we tailor human use of these resources to 

carrying capacity worldwide, the sooner we can 

bring human activities into balance with the Earth's 

resource base. Not a simple goal, but a highly desirable one, and the U.S. Geological Survey work 

of resource assessment is fundamental to it. 

Furthermore, the carrying-capacity principle is 

dynamic, adjusting with the advent of new technologies and new discoveries of resources, while 

maintaining a balance between users and resources. 

I envision great potential for the U.S. Geological 

Survey in its second century, putting the carryingcapacity principle to work for the benefit of man. 

The fifth principle is that landscape systems are 

dynamic. They progress through various phases of 

development to a point of dynamic equilibrium, 

in which state they remain until a major change 

of conditions takes them back to an earlier stage 

of development-precipitiously, as by earthquake 

landslide, flood, volcanic eruption, or insect infestations, or gradually, as by erosion, climate change, 

or evolution. Use of this principle in environmental 

analyses frees us from believing that the land-use 
30 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

and resource planning and management must be 

static. Environmental analyses that include calculation of the rate of change provide a measure of 

ecosystem cost and benefits to compare with economic costs and benefits. It is even possible to 

analyze ecosystem costs and benefits in dollar 

terms, as Eugene Odum has done with the salt 

marshes of Georgia. He has found that salt 

marshes sold for landfill and urban construction go 

at $1,000 to $3,000 an acre; if the land is maintained as marsh, however, the composite value of 

the work of the ecosystem for man-in air and 

water cleansing, nutrient production, nursery 

grounds for shell and fin fish, hurricane buffering, 

and recreational and scenic values-is $85,000 an 

acre--a free contribution. 

As Powell well knew, these principles must become integral to the thinking, decisions, and actions of all of us. Practicing this fact an engineer 

in Denver designed a tool for integrating ecology, 

including the earth sciences, into design, planning, 

construction, and operation of projects. He calls 

this tool the "3 E's Tripod." One leg stands for 

engineering, one for economics, and one for ecology, 

including earth sciences. As you well know, tripods, 

to be functional, must have the three legs united to 

a firm central core, and each leg must be in action 

and bearing its proportionate weight. 

If the principles of landscape are applied, together with those of engineering and economics, 

from the outset, a synergism is set up in the ensuing 

analyses that take place in the conceptualization, reconnaissance, feasibility, and decision phases. Just 

as in engineering and economics, the types and 

amounts of data and complexities of environmental 

analysis increase as you move from phase to phase. 

What do these natural guidelines suggest for the 

second century of the U.S. Geological Survey: 

First, in NEPA (P.L. 91-190), carrying capacity 

and recycling have been codified in Section 101 (b) : 

In order to carry out the policy set forth in this Act, it is 

the continuing responsibility of the Federal Government to 

use all practicable means, consistent with other essential 

considerations of national policy, to improve and coordinate 

Federal plans, functions, programs, and resources to the 

end that the Nation may-

* * * * * 

(5) achieve a balan~e between population and resource use 

which will permit high standards of living and a wide 

sharing of life's amenities; and 

(6) enhance the quality of renewable resources and approach the maximum attainable recycling of depletable 

resources. 

A double-edged challenge is provided in implementing these two provisions : to maintain the quality 

of life and environment while bringing human activity into balance--harmony-with the functioning of landscape systems. 

Second, as the knowledge of Earth increases, the 

interrelatedness of geologic, biologic, and climatic 

forces becomes more and more evident. This knowledge can enable humans to predict future phenomena with ever-increasing accuracy. This capability 

can make it possible to bring human activities into 

greater and greater harmony with Earth's landscape systems. For example, the ability to map 

earthquake zones and to predict the frequency and 

occurrence of earthquakes with increasing accuracy 

will make it possible to plan uses compatible with 

high-risk areas that complement uses on adjacent 

low-risk areas. 

Third, geologic and ecologic knowledge can encourage precise specific adaptation of human activities to the landscape processes. Some of this is 

now evident; more interaction with the public can 

lead to more rapid application of the knowledge, to 

solving human problems. For example, the public 

is learning that flood plains are river rights-ofway that can be shared by rivers and humans for 

activities compatible with periodic flooding; that 

earthquake zones can have human uses compatible 

with their instability; that erosion and deposition 

processes can be understood and human activities 

can be located in ways compatible with the continued operation of the processes, rather than altering the processes locally and regionally, only to 

wonder afterward why erosion is removing beaches 

and cliffs below cherished resort hotels and homes. 

In conclusion, I have drawn some broad-brush 

implications of how earth sciences might contribute 

to environmental analyses in the future, on the 

basis of natural principles so that we can stand 

back a moment from the work at hand and ask ourselves, "Where are we going and do we have the 

right quadrangle map to get there?" -as scientists, 

as administrators, as policymakers, as engineers. 

The quality of life in the future depends in part 

on how well we apply these principles of earth science in our daily activities. I rest assured that the 

U.S. Geological Survey will continue to expand on 

its meritorious tradition initiated by the man we 

honor today, by providing the Nation and the 

world essential components of better and better environmental analyses. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

LEASE MANAGEMEN'"f AND RESOURCE CONSERVATION 

By DoN E. KAsH 

Director, Science and Public Policy Program, University of Oklahoma 

In practice, public policy and management in the 

American experience reflect a consistent pattern. 

That pattern is to define decisions wherever possible as involving questions that can best be answered with information. If one only listens to the 

rhetoric, policy debates in this country regularly 

sound as if there are no differences among the 

values being promoted. In truth, the gut political 

choices are among preferences and tastes and who 

gains the benefits or suffers the costs. Value 

preferences have nonrational and nonempirical 

roots and generally cannot be changed by facts or 

more information. 

This appears to be the case in spades with regard to lease management and resource conservation. In the resource sector, three fundamental 

value issues appear and reappear. They are: First, 

the question of "fair value" for resources; second, 

the question of who gets to develop the resources 

or resource allocation; and, third, the question of 

what values are to be maximized in postlease regulation. 

One pattern of disguising value questions is to 

paper them over by establishing mechanical choicemaking procedures. An example of this is the procedure for allocating leases on the basis of bonus 

bids. In a complex situation, we elevate a single 

variable-in this case dollars-to a dominant position and let it make the choice. That camouflages 

the fact that the elevation of the variable involved 

a major value choice. 

A second pattern is to submerge the value 

choices in a mass of information. The debate is 

then over who has the best information and what 

the information says. In both cases, the parties-atinterest never have to lay out their selfish purposes. 

The value choices in the resource area are especially clouded by the information quagmire. This tendency to seek answers in information usually allows 

decisionmaking to be transferred to the professionals and experts. 

The central problem in our period of change is 

that the mechanisms we have traditionally used to 

convert value choices into choices among facts are 

not working well because the substantive conditiorts 

in our society have been undergoing massive 

changes as a result of modern technology. These 

changes have spotlighted some of the inherent contradictions in our traditional assumptions and rules 

of operation. Three of these traditions appear relevant to the topic of this paper. 

The first and most hallowed tradition is the constitutionally established principle that there should 

be "walls of separation" established between the 

various sectors, functions, and institutions of our 

society. The fundamental purpose of this tradition 

has been to protect against the abuse of power 

thought to be the result of decisionmakers who 

have conflicts of interest. This particular term 

"wall of separation" was used by the Supreme 

Court in a 1947 decision declaring that the Constitution requires a "wall of separation" between 

church and state. 

For our purposes, the most important reflection 

of this tradition has been the conception that an 

adversary relationship is to be desired in the relations between Government and business, or more 

generally, the public sector and the private sector. 

That conception has been particularly important 

in guiding relations between the Department of 

the Interior and the resource industry. The fact 

that the wall has been breached with regularity in 

the resource sector and, in fact, that conflicts of 

interest are endemic in a complex society has been 

31 
32 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

consistently overlooked until recently. In practice, 

the wall has nearly crumbled in the natural-resources sector. 

The second tradition is that the private sector 

best serves the public interest when it is governed 

by the competitive rules of the marketplace. Stated 

succinctly, this tradition says that the private sector, in this case the resource industry, operates 

best with minimal encumbrance by government. Increased Government involvement leads to increased 

inefficiency. That conceptual construct of what the 

economists called "the market" is supposed to be 

relied upon to govern business behavior. This faith 

in the marketplace provides much of the conceptual 

underpinning for the desired adversary relationship 

between Government and business because Government interference is supposed to foul up the operation of the market. 

The third tradition is that down at the .nittygritty level, on a day-to-day basis, Governmentindustry relations will be carried out in both sectors by professionals who share a common expertise 

and whose real world activities are organized 

around common problems. In the resource sector, 

whether these professionals be geologists, engineers, 

economists, or lawyers, they share the common bond 

of a community that views resource management as 

an activity best carried out by full-time experts. No 

matter where they may be employed-in a Government agency or a corporation-they see that adversary process of "politics," which is central to 

the first tradition, as a cross they must bear. 

CONTRADICTIONS IN THE MANAGEMENT 

SYSTEM 

Clearly, there has been a fundamental contradiction between tradition one, the wall of separation, 

and tradition three, professional management. That 

contradiction, however, could be dealt with on an 

ad hoc basis so long as leasing and management 

took place in a condition of abundance. The philosophical debate over the role of the public sector 

versus the private sector might exercise the glands 

of liberals and conservatives, but except in the rare 

cases, such as Teapot Dome scandal, it had little 

impact on what actually happened. Even in cases 

of scandal, the corrective action was aimed at constraining the abuse of power by corrupt and 

avaricious men in a condition of abundance. The 

objective was to find sanitary procedures that would 

protect the public from such men. In practice, this 

meant letting a system of clean procedures make 

the value choices. 

Guided by these conflicting traditions, the Congress and the executive branch responded in expected fashion. Within the Department of the Interior, a formal "wall of separation" was constructed between the organization responsible for 

allocating resources and determining revenue 

(Bureau of Land Management) and that responsible for conservation and follow-on management 

(U.S. Geological Survey). This was the case even 

though the effective exercise of these responsibilities required the agencies to be intimately intertwined. 

For those resource allocation and revenue decisions assigned to the Bureau of Land Management, the traditions have further required the 

establishment of procedures that allow minimum 

discretion. Where competing companies were desirous of obtaining the right to develop resources, 

that right was given either by bonus bids or lottery, 

and where there were no competitors, it was given 

on a first-come basis. 

Where procedures are used to disguise and therefore make value decisions, the only information 

necessary is that which is associated with the single 

decisionmaking variable, in this case, time of request, lottery number, or size of bonus bid. On the 

other hand, where facts are used to disguise and 

therefore to make the value choices, as in the case 

of follow-on regulation, responsibility is assigned 

to the professional, scientifically oriented U.S. 

Geological Survey. In general, the information 

disguise was possible because a maturing resource 

industry and the Government shared common goals 

with regard to conservation. Those goals were the 

orderly and timely resource development and maximum ultimate recovery of the resource. Although 

conservation management required sharing information and analysis between industry and Government, that did not pose a serious threat, given the 

shared goals of the postlease or heavily professional management phase. 

CHANGING VALUES 

As society's values have changed and as scarcity 

has replaced abundance, the elements of the public interested in resource management have expanded, and many of the new elements manifest 

different values. This has resulted in resource policies 

being subjected to a different kind of scrutiny and 

has led to widespread criticism. The criticism reflects a belief that existing resource management 

arrangements are not responsive to the threats of 

existing or potential scarcity, new kinds of mul-
LEASE MANAGEMENT AND RESOURCE CONSERVATION 33 

tiple-use concerns, and heightened environmental 

sensitivities. These pressures have blurred the 

boundaries between the responsibilities of the professionals and the lay public. Similarly, the dividing line between the resource allocation and revenue 

questions and the follow-on management activities 

is no longer clear. 

Stated differently, leasing and resource management must now be responsive to a much broader 

set of goals and criteria. Both leasing and resource 

conservation decisions must now reflect tradeoffs 

among revenue returns, accelerated resource availability, and environmental-multiple-use concerns. 

The dilemma is well illustrated by the proposal to 

lease 10 million acres of Outer Continental Shelf 

(OCS) lands a year. 

It seems unlikely that leasing at that rate will 

generate a per-acre bonus-bid return equal to that 

produced under a program that leases 1 million 

acres a year, thus raising fair-value questions. 

Similarly, the need to lease according to some 

s·cheme of areas ranked for their environmental 

sensitivity, as proposed by the Council on Environmental Quality, will likely affect both revenue return and rate of development. 

An equally complex condition is developing in 

the area of postlease management of resources, as 

environmentally responsive management appears 

to require substantial prelease planning. This requires early acquisition of a broad range of information and a substantial increase in the range 

and amount of management expertise. 

These changing goals and the public attitudes 

they reflect spotlight two operational demands. 

First, there is a demand that at all times, Government must have information and interpretations on resources equal to those held by industry. 

The underlying assumption is that the complex and 

highly discriminating judgments Government must 

now make .among conflicting values requires the 

best available information. If you cannot use a 

single variable and mechanical procedures, you try 

to substitute information and expertise. 

Second, there is the demand for public participation . in all resource decisions from prelease planning through postlease regulation. Laymen want a 

role. The professionals find this difficult because 

without professional competence, even with complete information, the layman does not understand 

the critical nuances of resource management. 

Few things are more offensive to a professional 

than a layman questioning his professional decisions. The professional and lay perspectives differ 

as follows : Experts focus on cause-and-effect relationships. They are oriented toward understanding what causes events to take place, and they understand the complex and frequently difficult problems associated with modifying causal relationships. Laymen are oriented toward what the effects 

mean to their value preferences. They manifest 

little concern for professional values. Laymen may 

not be able to explain why, but they can tell what 

they like and do not like. When dissatisfaction is 

high, the lay public demands the right to participate 

so that they can register their likes and dislikes. 

The changes I see in resource management are ail 

linked to this demand for expanded public involvement. When nonprofessionals assert the right to 

participate in resource management and when they 

further assert that nonprofessional values must 

carry equal weight, the system is politicized. That 

has happened to the resource management system. 

Successful political systems are those that find accommodations among conflicting values and conflicting facts. Resource management in the future 

must find such accommodations. 

THE CHALLENGE 

This is a major challenge for resource managers 

generally, but especially so for a professional organization such as the U.S. Geological Survey. The 

essence of the present demand for management 

change is that the contradictions be eliminated by 

assuring an adversary relationship between the 

Government's professionals and those in industry. 

This is a major reason behind the demand for better Government information and more public involvement. 

The objective is to insure that Government professionals can and will perform as competent adversaries of the industry professionals. In this, as 

in every area of our technological society, the 

growing pressure is to create a system of "our 

professionals" and "their professionals." This seems 

to reflect a belief that the public has been snookered 

by communities of experts who deny access to the 

uninformed. The critical public wants its own experts-it wants the Government experts to demonstrate their loyalties by fighting with those in industry. 

These demands are particularly threatening to 

the resource industry. From my vantage point, the 

resource industry reflects a distinctively conservative posture. By this, I mean that it inherently 

fears change. The reasons appear to be at least 

threefold: (1) The industry has a history of liv-
34 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

ing with wide fluctuations-going from surpluses 

and low prices to scarcity and high prices-and 

its response has been to make stability a highfy 

sought goal; (2) it has been an industry populated by no-nonsense professionals; (3) it has made 

a conservative free-enterprise ideology its rhetorical 

touchstone. 

From the industry's point of view, the changes 

that are being demanded are seen as a threat to 

its profits, a threat of Government meddling in its 

day-to-day operations, and as a result~, a threat to 

the American way. Change in the way the leasing 

and resource management system operates is therefore, to be resisted, as even small changes are viewed 

as having the potential for opening the floodgates. 

In my view, the industry's approach to change 

must, in the end, fail. Existing or potential scarcity 

will probably not be effectively managed by institutions and arrangements set up to manage surplus. 

Nor will multiple use and environmental values be 

effectively responded to by a system established 

when they were of no concern. 

INFORMATION 

Central to the whole issue of industry-Government cooperation at present is the question of information-how much there is, how adequate it is, 

who has access to it, and how adequate various organizations are in an interpretive capacity. The 

great danger is that, given our traditions, the adversary process will involve a conflict over facts, 

when in reality the differences are over values. 

The importance of information is therefore more 

symbolic than real, but it is no less important for 

that reason. Only when both industry and Government approach resource information as a public 

commodity, in fact only when vigorous and positive efforts are made to communicate it and make 

it understandable, will stable resource management 

be possible. The symbolic issue that must be addressed is the belief that actions are being taken 

that are not in the public interest and that such 

actions are possible because of selective use of information and expertise. 

Having said that information is central to the 

whole debate, let me repeat that I believe it is 

something of a red herring. Perhaps it is best characterized as having a distorting effect. It leads to 

industry exaggerating what it does not know and 

its critics exaggerating what it does know. In substance, the availability of all of industry's information will provide few answers. My point is that 

any effort at addressing the more basic issues requires taking actions aimed at getting the information issue into perspective. I believe that that requires Government having access to all resource 

information, and that as far as is possible, resource 

information should be made public. 

MAJOR ISSUES 

What would the major issues look like if information were eliminated as an issue. The "fair 

value" question would have to be faced for what 

it is. That is, how much of the profit should flow 

to Government? In practice, this is a question concerning what the Government gets after the company has made a reasonable profit. I do not know 

what a reasonable profit is, but that is the basic 

value question. Given a decision on fair value, 

there are many straightforward ways of collecting the money. Either profit sharing or straight 

taxation arrangements could handle the mechanics, 

but to assume that a bonus bid-fixed royalty will 

result in "fair value" is to dodge the basic question. 

The question of who gets to develop the re .. 

sources would require defining criteria sensitive to 

a broad set of public interests. Presumably, the 

criteria would focus on who could bring the resources on line rapidly and provide adequate protection for multiple use and environmental concerns. The major concern revolves around big companies versus small operators. In the case of OGS 

oil and gas, my personal view is that we do not 

want small operators incapable of paying the costs 

of responding to a "Santa Barbara." Should the 

value choice be to insure access for small operators, 

however, the Government would need to make adjustments, such as developing the capability for 

responding to accidents. 

The question of postlease regulation and conservation, like the other two, requires value choices. 

In this case, the issue is which of the conflicting 

values you bias the system toward. The Department 

of the Interior outlines its management objectives, 

in part, as follows: orderly and timely resource development, encouragement of development compatible with other land uses, maximum ultimate recovery, protection of the environment, rehabilitation 

of lands, protection of public safety, compliance with 

NEPA, and insuring fair market value return on 

the disposition of its resources. That list contains 

some fundamental conflicts if one gets enthusiastic 

about any one of those objectives. Regulation involves finding the "golden mean" among these objectives. It cannot be found with more information. 

Further, different interests have a different con-
LEASE MANAGEMENT AND RESOURCE CONSERVATION .35 

ception of what the "golden mean" is. 

The central regulatory question is where you 

rest what the lawyers would call the burden of 

proof. Regulation varies, depending upon whether 

you require the developer to prove t.hat there will 

be "minimal environmental damage" or the critic 

to prove ".major environmental damage," or 

whether you require the use of "best available technology" as opposed to "best practicable control 

technology." In summary, regulation involves making continuous judgments in gray areas; vesting 

those judgments in a professional organization 

equipped with the best available information does 

not change that reality. 

A PROPOSAL FOR COOPERATION 

Basic to the needs of successful resource management in a complex society is the development of consensus among parties reflecting different values. 

This is the challenge to Government at present. 

Such an approach is juxtaposed to the call of many 

critics who want a more vigorous adversary process 

which ·comes to a head at major decision points. 

Implicit in the preceding interpretation is the 

view that planning, resource allocation, and followon regulation are inseparable elements. They therefore require close cooperation at every stage among 

industry, other interests and Government, and between the Bureau of Land Management and the 

U.S. Geological Survey. Only such cooperation will 

provide the stability necessary to balance the multiple values. On this point, I would note that we 

may have lessons to learn from other industrialized 

countries which seem to do better at working in 

such a cooperative mode. 

Achievement of cooperation requires a resource 

allocation-management system that make·s cooperation beneficial to all parties-at-interest. Designing 

a system that would accomplish that goal requires 

craftsmanship of mind-boggling proportions. Under no circumstances would I claim to have accomplished the task. Nonetheless, let me suggest the 

outlines of a system to which I have given some 

thought. 

Central to this scheme is the substitution of a 

system of licensing resources based on work programs for the pre,sent leasing arrangements. 

Step 1 involves Government collection of early 

and expanded resource information. Such information would include all that collected by companies 

or individuals under e·xploration or prospecting permits, plus a substantially expanded Government exploration program. 

Step 2 would call for long-term licensing schedules for each major resource. This would provide 

the necessarily long leadtime for planning resource 

development. 

Step 3 would require preparation of regional 

programmatic impact statements, as areas in new 

regions are added to the long-term license schedule. These ·statements should be planning documents 

and should go considerably beyond present environmental impact ~statements. They should be prepared 

by interagency task forces and should be general 

development plans including resource, land-use, and 

environmental concerns. Their purpose should be to 

define the role and relationship of the resource development to the overall use of the region. The programmatic statements should also include an assessment of the Government management structure's capacity to meet its obligations as defined in 

the statement. A major purpose of the programmatic 

statements should be to provide early access to information and polieymaking for all interested parties; the statements would the·refore be the first 

step in the process of poliUcal ac0ommodation and 

consensus-making necessary to resource developm.ent. 

Step 4 would involv·e preparation of a shorter, 

perhaps 5-year, license schedule consisting of areas 

defined by coordinates. More specific designation of 

the areas to be licens.ed is necessary to guide the 

resource and environmental data collection necessary for the preparation of the license impact statement. 

Step 5 would involve preparation of a license impact statement. It should be subsidiary to the programmatic s1tatement and concentrate on looal concerns. The license statement should not repeat 

material covered in the programmatic statement 

except where it is necessary to amend the plan described in the programmatic state·ment. It should, 

however, include an assessment of the agency capabilities for managing the involved resource development. 

Step 6 would involve allocating licenses based on 

work programs that meet the requirements laid 

down in the impact statements. Where there are 

competing bidders, licenses should be allocated by 

choosing among the competitive work programs. 

The decisive variables should be (1) speed and 

completene1ss of exploration activity, (2) time 

schedule for initiation of production, and (3) responsiveness of exploration and production activities 

to land-use and environmental concerns. All proposed 
36 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

work plans should be made public when licenses are 

awarded. 

Step 7 should involve regulation that requires application of "best available technology and procedures" for the protection of health and safety and 

the environment. 

The scheme I have just sketched would involve 

a redes,ign of much of the existing management 

system. It would require both new legislation and 

major changes in the existing administrative arrangements. It is my view that nothing less is required to develop the cooperative system required 

to meet the new resource management circumstances we face. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS 

By DANIEL F. MERRIAM 

Chairman, Department of Geology, Syracuse University 

INTRODUCTION 

All the predictions on the depletion of our nar 

tional resources are pessimistic. We are exhausting 

our raw materials, and now it is only a question 

of when. It is of top i~mportance, therefore, that 

optimum us'e be made of these resources as they 

are exploited, and it will be neces'Sary to achieve a 

balance between use, conse·rvation, and environmental considerations. As difficult as this may be, however, the real problem will be in finding new reserves 

to replace the depleted ones. Geologists will play a 

key role in the ·exploration for these new mineral 

resources. 

I was impressed several years ago by the comment's 

Bob Weimer (1970, p. 154) made in regard to future exploration for petroleum in the Rocky Mountains. Bob, among other things, advocated a team 

approach in the evaluation of scientific data, or, in 

his words a ". . . turn to sophisticated geology in 

the search for ... [mineral resources] .... " In this 

day and age, when large volumes of data are automatically acquired, and techniques are readily available by which to massage them, this approach demands use of the computer. 

Because significantly fewer prospects are being 

found by traditional methods and because the easyto-find prospects are gone, the success ratio will 

obviously decline. This means an ever-increasing 

effort to fip.d less and less. Thus, significant changes 

in philosophy, applied methods, and education are 

in the offing if explorationists are to meet the challenge of the future. In the words of Andre Hubaux 

(1973, p. 160), former research secretary of 

COGEODATA, "The very future of the geological 

profession may well depend on its capability to set 

a policy for the presentation to proper authorities 

of the basic geological data to estimate the reserves 

of commodities." 

The new philosophy will reflect team inquiry. The 

geologist now will integrate his thinking with computer scientists, statisticians, engineers, hydrologists, geochemists, and geophysicists in outlining 

areas of interest and in monitoring their development. Methods will reflect the latest available techniques and perhaps simulated real-world models 

based on m-illions or e~ven billions of items of data. 

New ideas wil be put forth by the younger better 

disciplined geologists who will have been trained 

to interpret and judge the interdis.ciplinary multibased data that have been treated in a complex 

manner. Therefore, it is extremely important to 

train young professional geologists to think in a 

multidisciplinary approach to problem .solving, to 

introduce them to all the latest developments, and 

to give them a thorough background and understanding of computers and their use. 

In the past when new concepts were introduced, it 

was not long until methods and technology were developed to implement the associated ideas. For example, the application of geophysios in mineral-resources exploration resulted in an entire new area 

of theory and an industry to provide the equipment. As ·each new exp~loration technique is introduced, the success ratio increases for a time and 

then declines slowly. This results in a series of 

surges followed by intervening low periods. Advent 

of the computer and application of it to exploration 

and exploitation problems will be no exception. Just 

now we are in the application phase of this concept and as the team approach i1

s used and as computers are fully utilized, we ~should witness a surge, 

although short lived, in successful exploration for 

mineral resources. It should be emphasized here 

that even though the locations of resources ·are 

37 
38 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

known, the resources may not be recoverable because of economic or technological reasons-a point 

well made by Pratt and Brobst ( 197 4) in their recent U.S.G.S. Circular "Mineral Resources: Potentials and Problems." The computer also can help in 

problems of exploitation as well as in bookkeeping, 

as, for example·, in the resource appraisal program 

of the U.S. Geological Survey, and in projecting 

short- ,and long-term supply and demand. 

I would like to take, in turn, each of the areasphilosophy, applied methods, and education-and 

examine them in more detail. First, however, the 

data should be examined. 

THE DATA 

Data are accumulating at an almost alarming 

rate. If the geologist is to digest even part of them, 

he needs help, and that help must come from the 

computer. 

There are many advantages in computer-processable data. The~se data are usualy collected under 

controlled or semicontrolled conditions, and thus 

they are, or should be: (1) objective (usually), (2) 

systematic (or in a form that easily can be m·ade 

so), and (3) organized (thus ready for analysis 

by mruthematical and statistical techniques). In 

the long run, computer-processable form is the most 

economical in which to store large masses of data. 

Most data files are accumulated for special projects. In fact, objectives. should be outlined clearly 

before initiation of such a file (Gilliland and Grove, 

1973). In contras't, an archival file is one of basic 

data, diverse, but having widely accepted standards (Hubaux, 1969). 

Sev·eral countries are working towards development of archival files, notably Canada, through the 

Canadian Centre for Geoscience Data (Burk, 1972). 

Romania also is making an effort on a national 

basis (Dimitriu and Dumirtriu, 1973), as is 

Czechoslovakia (Hruska, 1971). I suggest that it 

would be proper for the U.S. Geological Survey to 

take the lead in this country and establish a national oente:r based on the one in Canada. One of 

the charges of the U.S. Center for Geoscience Data 

would be the development and maintenance of data 

files for use by the geological community. Along 

with this function would be the responsibility of 

setting standards and exercis.ing quality control of 

the files. Inasmuch as the Survey is deeply involved 

in data storage and retrieval alre·ady, this seems to 

be a logical next step. 

One notable example of the Survey's ever-increasing commitment in .this area is the recently established mineral-resources data bank, CRIB, a Computerized Resources Information Bank (Calkins and 

others, 1973). CRIB will provide a quick means for 

summarizing and displaying data on mineral resourees. In just 5 months after the hank was implemented it contained about 10,000 records. Another important file is RASS, a Rock Analysis and 

Storage System. The main file has. been in operation a little more than 5 years and contains about 

250,000 records. 

It is interesting to note that the national, state 

and provincial surveys have been in the forefront 

in developing data systems. This is undoubtedly 

because historically they have been repositories for 

these data. Museums also have been involved with 

data systems because of their special curatorial 

problems. Recently, two comprehensive summaries 

have been published on the status-of-the-art: 

"Computer-based Storage, Retrieval and Processing 

of Geological Information," which appeared as Section 16 of the 24th International Geological Congress in Montreal (Bergeron and others, 1972), and 

"Data Processing in Biology and Geology," which 

was edited by John Cuthill (1971) £or Academic 

Press. The status of data processing in the earth 

sciences in Canada was reviewed by obinson (1970). 

Robinson (1974) of the Canadian Survey has 

noted that data must be the original observations 

free from .conclusions of the observer. Many geologic 

terms however have genetic implications and thus 

in fact have conclusions inherent in their use. This 

practice, of course, allows disagreements to arise 

because of the terminology. Semantic symbols as 

proposed by Colin Dixon (1970, 1971) and Pierre 

Laffitte (1968) are one poS'sible solution to this 

dilemma. 

Data are important, and their half-life has been 

estimated as nearly infinite in contrast to conclusions which have a half-life of only about 3.7 

years. The preservation of data is of international 

concern, and COGEODATA, a committee sponsored 

by the International Union of Geological Sciences, 

presently is making plans for the future. "The aims 

of the committe·e are to facilitate access to available geological data and to promote compatibility 

between these data on an international scale" 

(Hubaux, 1973, p. 163). A common data base would 

allow easy communication on a worldwide basis, enhancing geological interpretations; effective us.e 

could be made of mathematical and statistical techniques where standard and comparable data were 

available; and many mi,sunderstandings .could be 

avoided. 
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS 39 

In addition to public files, several commercial systems are in operation at present. The one best known 

to geologists is the Well History Control System 

(WHCS), which even 2 years ago had data from 

about 700,000 wells in computer-process·able files 

(Forgotson and Stark, 1972). A list of representative special files is given in table 1. Hubaux (1972) 

has compiled a more exhaustive list. 

TABLE !.-Tabulation of select special data files 

File Organization 

GE.ODAT --------- Geological Survey 

of Canada. 

SIIRS ------------ Smithsonian Institution. 

Department of 

Geology, University of Reading, 

England. 

GEOMAP -------- Geological Survey of 

Sweden and Boliden 

Co. 

EDP System Agto _ Geological Survey of 

Greenland. 

GRENVILLE _____ Quebec Department of 

Natural Resources. 

M-file ------------ Geological Survey of 

Canada. 

CRIB ------------ U.S. Geological 

Survey. 

RASS ------------ U.S. Geological Sur'Viey. 

Content 

General 

Chemical analyses, C14 

dates, sediment 

analyses, rock 

properties. 

Specimen records for 

rocks, marine crus- taceans, and sea birds. 

Size 

80,000 items as of 

1972. 

About 25,000 speci- mens processed in 

the first 18 months 

at a rate of about 

430 records/week. 

Remarks and references 

Started in 1964; directed by K. R. Daw- son (Burk, 1972). 

Started in 1967; re- trieval programs 

written in COBOL 

(Squires, 1970). 

Many data sets, project 100,000 cards -------- Contains data back to 

oriented. 1964; utilizes 

ROKDOC (London, 

1969). 

Geologic mapping 

Geological field data; 

mainly for mapping 

igneous and metamorphic terranes 

Field and laboratory 

data for a highgrade metamorphic area. 

Geological fi·eld mapping in the Grenville 

proV\ince. 

Mineral resources 

Detailed geological and 

mining data. 

Mineral resources information bank. 

Geochemistry 

Data on rock, soil, 

vegetation, or water 

samples. 

To handle about 75,000 

observation points, 

with 150,000 systemic registrations 

and approximately 

15,000 samples. 

De·scriptions of about 

10,000 outcrops. 

Data on about 4,000 

de1posits. 

10,000 recoras in the 

first 5 months. 

About 88,000 records 

with as many as 300 items for each 

record in analytical 

laboratory file; as many as 620 items 

for each sample of 

162,000 records in 

explo·ration research 

file. 

Introduced in 1970; 

retrieval programs 

in FORTRAN; also 

contains data-analysis programs such as DA (Discriminant analysis) , PCA (Principal 

components analysis) and FA (Factor analysis) 

(Berner and others, 

1972). 

Initiated in 1966; system programmed in 

Gier ALGOL 4 

(Platou, 1971). 

Started in 1968; directed by A.-F. 

Laurin (Laurin and 

others., 1972). 

Contains information on Canadian deposits (Burk, 1972; 

Robinson, 1970). 

Contains information on U.S. mineral 

resources; retrieval 

program, GIPSY 

(Calkins and others, 

1973). 

Started in 1969; pre1968 data stored in a card file. Utilizes 

STATPAC (Mie.sch, 

written commun., 

1974). 
40 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

TABLE 1. Tabulatiorn. of select special data files----~Con.tinued 

File Organization Content Size Remarks and references 

Paleontology 

UCMP University of California, Museum of 

Paleontology. 

Vertebrate, invertebrate, plant, and 

micropaleontological 

collections. 

About 84,000 localities 

and 100,000 speci- mens. 

Started in 1965 

(Berry, 1972). 

Western Interior 

Foraminiferal 

Data Project. 

Colorado School of 

Mines. 

Cretaceous foraminifers from the West- ern interior. 

704 references; 6,000 

speci·es citations involving 3,000 different species from 

4,000 localities .. 

Retrieval uses SAFRAS (Kent, 

1972). 

Well information 

Borehole data 

from central 

Scotland. 

Institute of Geological 

Sciences. 

Lithologic data from cores of Carboniferous age. Four borehole records 

into the detailed file 

and 15 into the general file as of 1971; 

60 more records 

ready. 

Retrieval programs in 

Atlas machine codeutilizes ROKDOG 

(Gover and others, 

19·71) 

Well data from 

Libya. 

Oasis Oil Co --------- Oompany records of 

boreholes; lithologic, 

stratigraphic, structural, and paleontologic data. 

Data retrieved in raw or summary form 

(Conley and Hea, 

1972) 

Lithologic well 

data. 

U.S. Geological Survey 

and Kansas Geological Survey. 

Water-well records in 

Kansas; lithologic 

data. 

Started in 1965~Morgan and McNellis, 

1971) 

Saskatchewan 

Government 

weU-data 

system. 

Saskatchewan 

Government. 

Subsurface geological 

and ·engineering data. 

18,000 wells --------- Started in 1964; re- trieval by TELLUS 

(COBOL based) 

(Buller, 1972) 

RETRIEVING THE DATA 

Putting data in machine-processable form for 

inclusion in data system is all well and good but 

of little value if such data ·cannot be retrieved. Many 

retrieval programs, some rather sophisticated, 

are being used at present include GEOMAP, 

TELLUS, GIPSY, and SAFRAS. Many of the re--

trieval programs are constructed for use with a 

particular file system, for example, G EO MAP programs with GEOMAP files, and the TELLUS program syste!m with the Saskatchewan well-data file. 

GIPSY and SAFRAS, on the other hand, are designed for general use. GIPSY, for example, is being used to process the data in CRIB. 

SAFRAS, an acronym for self-adaptive flexible 

retrieval and storage, was developed by Pete Sutterlin and associates at the University of \Vestern Ontario with a grant from the Geological Survey of 

Canada. Here, I would like to encourage Federal support of research. The U.S. Geological Survey, through 

a system of direct grants, could commission special 

computer-oriented research at universities having 

special expertise. This system has been highly successful in Canada and could be equally successful in 

the United States. The SAFRAS system was de~­

signed for general application so that no prestructuring of the data is required; it is easy to use-files 

can be merged, sorted, and reorganized-and the re--

trieval is in plain language. A directory precedes 

the data, giving a complete de~scription of the file ; 

this feature allows the flexibility (Sutterlin and 

DePlancke, 1969). 

G-EXEC, an acronym for the Geologist EXECutive, is a super system designed not only for storage and retrieval, but for analysis and display of 

data as well. The syste·m was deve,loped mainly by 

Keith Jeffery and Elizabeth Gill 1 in response to 

needs of the Institute of Geological Sciences in London. It consists of two parts: (1) the data files and 

(2) the process programs. The system is data independent because each data set is self-describing. The 

system is modular so that it can be implemented on 

small computers and can be modified or improved 

easily. The use·r commands are in near-English, 

facilitating use of the system. 

Other systems undoubtedly will be developed in 

the future. There are pros and cons to big systems 

for archival data versus small specific systems for 

project-oriented data files. Small systems are cheap 

to develop and use, and search is quick because the 

data are limited. Large systems are expensive to 

develop, maintain, and use, and a search may be time 

consuming and thus expensive. However, the ultimate use is greater as the data base is large·r. 

In the future, big data storage and retrieval systems will be put into use and small specialized sys1 Jeffrey, K. G., Gill, E. M., and Henley, S., 197~, G-EXEC s~tem, 

user's manual: Inst. Geol. Sci, unpub. rept, prehm. draft of Issue 

no. 2, 136 p. 
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS 41 

terns will proliferate. Standards and quality control 

will gradually be installed at all levels, and geologists 

will eventually record all their data on standard 

forms utilized worldwide. The U.S. Geological Survey, as already pointed out, can continue to be an 

effective leader in thi~s area of elect:vonic data processing where so much expertise is available from 

years of experience. 

PHILOSOPHY OF SEARCH 

Now, I would like to turn to the philosophy of 

search, or if you prefer, exploration. In the words of 

John Griffiths (Griffiths and Singer, 1973, p. 9), 

The search for non-renewable natural resources is usually 

conducted on the 19-century "cause and effect" philosophy. 

It is generally believed that if we could explain the origin 

of an ore body or petroleum deposit we could predict where 

to find additional resources. This philosophy is the main 

basis for much research devoted to the description and 

analysis of natural resources. 

Unfortunately, this philosophy, as outlined by Griffiths, was good ·enough in the past but may not stand 

us in good stead much longer, at least without modification. 

Recently, a new approach to the search problem is 

emerging; that is, combining statistical techniques 

and geology with the expectation of increasing the 

exploration success ratio. This approach is through 

simulation, in which a stochastic model can simultaneously consider many variables to dete·rmine the 

"best" solution to the problem. Since the work of 

Allais in 1957, in which the Algerian Sahara was 

used as a case study, the purely statistical approach 

has been modified to take into account geology and 

other factors. 

One note of caution here, and that too s·ounded by 

John Griffiths (1968, p. 6): " ... the importance of 

the philosophy of the scientific method is that it 

encourages an investigator to take a new look at his 

problem an<~ not, as is quite commonly done, to attempt to use new tools-more or less as fads-as 

additions to old practices." The one big advantage of 

a new approach is that it allows the problem to· be 

reexamined with a new outlook and to be appraised 

from a different point of view. 

The first step in any search is to outline the areas 

of interest, that is, to determine the favorable areas 

for exploration. The selection of favorable areas 

will be based on many factors, including geology. 

Once the areas are defined, then the exploration and 

development of the deposits require additional data. 

These data may be collected according to a predefined plan, taking into account the size and shape of 

the suspected targets. Much has been written on the 

"best" methods to use? sampling schemes, and techniques to evaluate the data. Once a deposit is found 

and delineated, it needs to be evaluated. For each of 

these steps, computer techniques are available to 

assist the geologist. 

Dee Harris (Harris and Euresty, 1969) of the University of Arizona has app~oached the problem by 

appraising the effect of economic factors which are 

evaluated prior to the allocation of exploration effort 

and concurrently with mineral occurrence. The techniques used to analyze simultaneou~ly the probabilistic events between economic and geologic conditions 

are multivariate geostatistics and simulation. This 

regional, multiple-mineral evaluation approach has 

been applied in several areas including Alaska (Harris, 1969) and northwestern Canada (Harris and 

others, 1971) . 

Frits Agterberg and his associate·s at the Geological Survey of Canada also use a regional approach. 

Geological and geophysical parameters are assessed 

for cells of a predetermined size, and probabilities 

of mineral occurrence are extrapolated from known 

cells to unknown ones. The potential of any cell is the 

difference between the projected and the proven reserves for each cell. The Abitibi area on the Canadian 

Shield is the object of an ongoing study (Agterberg 

and others, 1972). 

John Harbaugh (Harbaugh and Prelat, 1973) and 

geologists of the Kansas Survey are developing an 

historical model for parts of Kansas. Outcome probabilities for exploratory wells are estimated for each 

step through time, on the basis of the geology as 

perceived at that particular time increment. The 

probabilities are r·evised with each increment of time 

for each cell, as information becomes available. 

Larry Drew (1974) of the U.S.G.S. developed a 

random-walk simulation model for exploration of 

petroleum deposi~ts in the Powder River basin of 

Wyoming. The hindsight model was used to demonstrate the relationship between the intensity of 

drilling and the exploration outcome, as summarized 

by the quantity of petroleum and the number of deposits discovered, and the probability of gambler's 

ruin and different levels of success. 

These are just a few of the possible models that 

offer insight into exploration philosophy; refinements of these models, or new ones, certainly will be 

used in ~the future. The U.S. Geological Survey can 

continue its work in determining strategies for 

exploration for natural resources. These models 

would be helpful in evaluating F·ederal lands ~available for lease and pe,rhaps could be applied directly 

in areas where the private s·ector has no interest. 
42 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

APPLIED METHODS 

Techniques are available for analyzing three types 

of data: (1) sequential data, (2) map data, and (3) 

multivariate data. Most techniques have been adapted 

from other disciplines, including medicine, engineering, biology, statistics, and psychology. Individual 

programs are usually put together into systems to 

facilitate the analysis procedures, for example, 

G-EXEC, ROKDOC, and NTSYS. NTSYS is a large 

system of classification programs developed by the 

biometricians at the State University of New York 

(SUNY), Stony Brook. ROKDOC was developed by 

geologists at Reading University in England, and 

G-EXEC has already been de~scribed. 

Few techniques have been specifically developed 

for solving geological problems. However, one such 

set of techniques, regionalized variables, was developed by the French s·chool of geostatistics headed 

by George Matheron. 

Many examples could be cited of the successful 

application of statistical techniques to exploration 

and exploitation problems. For the most part, these 

techniques are applied to problems within the 19thcentury context of "cause and effect." That is, the 

techniques could have been applied years ago, if 

it had been practical to do the calculations by hand. 

Even so, their application now has not been without 

positive effect, and here are, a few examples. 

The first used and probably the most successful 

technique has been trend analysis. Trend surfaces 

are used to separate map data into two components 

-regional and local. In structural geology, trend 

surfaces can be used to simulate regional dip of beds; 

the resulting residuals correspond to local structural 

highs and lows. The anomalous are,as thus are emphasized by removing the regional dip. The technique has been used especially in petroleum exploration in areas of low dip, where local highs, masked 

by regional effects, may serve as petroleum traps. 

Harmonic analysis was used by Agterherg and 

Fabbri (1973) to determine that the pattern of clusters of copper and gold occurrences on the Canadian 

Shield are more or less equally spaced. The coppe~r 

deposits were shown to coincide with geological 

structures of one age, and the gold mineralization 

was associated with features of another age. This 

technique was used also to demonstrate that algal 

limestone buildups were formed at approximately 

equal intervals in the Pennsylvanian seas of Kansas. 

These buildups occur in the subsurface and are of 

interest because they may serve as possible petroleum reservoirs (Merriam and Doria-Medina, 1968). 

Effective use of cluster analysis of geological data 

of tungsten deposits of North America has been 

made (Collyer and Me~rriam, 1973). This particular 

study was traditional in the sense that the technique was used to evaluate a "cause and effect" relationship; that is, which deposits formed in a similar environment. Analysis of the clusters of deposits 

with similar attributes emphasized subtle or unrecognized relationships in the original data. Once these 

attributes were determined, they could be used in 

exploring for similar deposits. Because nonnumeric 

data can be used in this type of study, the technique 

offers promise in utilizing historic records. A similar 

analysis was made for 30 base-metal mining districts 

in the United States by Joe Botbol (1971) of the 

U.S.G.S. 

Factor analysis is a technique which displays data 

in a simplified and condensed form. It is used to 

determine structure within a complex interrelationship of variables. Factor analysis has been used extensively with geochemical data (Miesch, 1969), and 

a factor-analysis exploration model was proposed by 

Ed Klovan (1968), a model in which factor scores 

would be mapped and favorable areas projected from 

the coincident patterns of known occurrences. 

Discriminant analysis has been used by John Griffiths (1964) to identify petroleum-producing from 

nonproducing sandstones. The technique can be used 

to assign unknown samples to previously defined 

groups. 

Many techniques are presently being te~sted to determine their range of applications and limits with 

geological data. The Geological Survey can do much 

to foster development of new techniques for analyzing geological data. Work along this line is proceeding, and the Survey is publishing results. These 

publications should be increased and made more 

readily available, as they constitute the only series 

of this type in the United States. I would like to suggest that the Survey take the responsibility in serving as a clearing house for computer programs, in 

the framework of GEOCOMP as proposed by John 

Harbaugh (1964), and as the Kansas Survey did so 

admirably during the mid- and late 1960s. This function could well come under the aegis of the U.S. 

Center for Geoscience Data. I would encourage 

the Survey to cons~ider making their network of 

computers available to the geological public. Just 

imagine some of the results in teaching and research 

if such access could be arranged ! This possibly could 

be the forerunner of a national hookup having many 

remote terminals distributed around the country and 

r operated on a basis similar to the Dartmouth system. 
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS 43 

EDUCATION 

Universities are responding-albeit slowly-to the 

needs of the modern computer world. Computers are 

introduced at an early stage in education, sometimes 

in high school, and eert,ainly in university-usually 

in the first year. Mathematics and statisties are 

taught and used in geology courses. Many textbooks 

on geomathematics and compute~r applications now 

are available. Most universities have at least one 

numerically oriented faculty member. Computers are 

readily accessible and economical (at least they are 

for users in the university where generally they are 

free), and of course they are easy to use! However, 

despite all the· activity, only about 10 percent of the 

geology students in this country are exposed to 

computer-oriented courses in university. More and 

more the interdisciplinary approach to problem solving is being stressed. 

Professional geologists can take advantage of the 

published literature, take night classes and short 

courses, or attend any of the many workshops, 

seminars, conferences, and chautauquas that are held 

throughout the country each year. 

Communication and the handling of the published 

literature is an increasingly difficult problem. Some 

2 million items have been published in geology, and 

that number is increasing at a rate of about 100,000 

items per year. This means that the geological literature is doubling every 6 to 7 years (Lea, 1972). 

No geologist, no matter how fast he can read, can 

possibly keep up with more than a fraction of the 

total publications. In fact, it may be difficult to keep 

up in his own field. Greater dependence then is 

placed on the bibliographies, current-awareness journals, and such services as GEO • REF. GEOCOM 

Bulletin and GEOCOM programs for the computeroriented geologists are available through Geosystems in London. The International Association for 

Mathematical Geology is an active organization, and 

membership is open to anyone interested in mathematical geology or computer applications. The Association publishes a quarterly journal (which in 

1975 becomes a bimonthly) and a newsletter. In 

addition to all the other sources of information, a 

new journal, "Computers and Geology," starts in 

1975. 

The U.S. Geological Survey is making a contribution to the national reference scheme in supporting 

GEO • REF. In addition to support for indexing published material, I suggest that it would be in the 

national interest to establish a U.S. Index to Geoscience Data. The index, patterned after the Cana,... 

dian index, would include all sources of geoscience 

data, including computer-based files, published literature, unpublished open-file reports held by government agencies, and relevant public documents. The 

index would identify original observations and 

measurements, but it would not abstract literature. 

The production of the index would be part of the 

U.S. Center for Geoscience Data. 

SUMMARY 

This summary of "Resource and Environmental 

Data Analysis" has be·en, of necessity, short and 

much abbreviated. E>mphasis has been placed on the 

"resource," but many of the generalities and summaries could se·rve the "environmental" ·aspect of 

data analysis equally well. Although many problems 

lie ahead, I look for geologists to meet their responsibilities and ·commitments with foresight and ingenuity. The future looks bright for the Geological 

Survey as it continues to fulfill its role as the organizational leader in Ameri'can geology. 

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Agterberg, F. P., Chung, C. F., Fabbri, A. G., Kelly, A. M., 

and Springer, J. S., 1972, Geomathematical evaluation 

of copper and zinc pot.ential of the Abitibi area, Ontario 

and Quebec: Canada Geol. Survey Paper 71-41, 55 p. 

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of geological information f:rtom ciOred boreholes in 

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Miesch, A. T., 1969, Critical review of some multivariate 

procedures: in the analysis of g.eochemical data: Internat. Assoc. Math. Geology Jour., v. 1, no. 2, p. 171-

184. 

Morgan, C. 0., and McNellis, J. M., 19·71, Reduction of 

lithologic-log data to numbers for use in the digital 

computer: Internat. Assoc. Math. Geology Jour., v. 3, 

no. 1, p. 79-86. 

Platou, S. W., 1971, An elec·tronic data processing system 

for geological field and laboratory data; the EDP system Agto: GrS'$nlands Geol. UndersS'$gelse Rept. 39·, 42 p. 

Pratt, W. P., and Brobst, D. A., 1974, Mineral resources: 

potentials and problems: U.S. Geol. Survey Circ. 698, 

20 p. 

Robinson, S. C., 1970, A review of data processing in the 

earth sciences. in Canada: Inte-rnat. Assoc. Math. 

Geology Jour., v. 2, no. 4, p. 377-39'7. 

--- 1974, The role of a data base in modern geology: 

Syracuse Univ. Geol. Gontr. 2. (In press.) 

Squires, D. F., 1970, An information storage and retrieval 

system for biological and geological data: Curator, v. 
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS 45 

8, no. 1, p. 43-62. 

Sutterlin, P. G., and DePlancke, J., 1969, Development of 

a flexible computer-processible file for storage and retrieval of mineral deposits data, in Proceedings of a 

symposium on decision-making in mineral exploration 

II: Vancouver, Univ. British Columbia, Extension Dept., 

p. 11-42. 

Weimer, R. J., 1970, New ideas, new methods, new developments: Southwestern Legal Foundation Explor. and 

Econ. Petroleum Industry Proc., v. 8, p. 145-154. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

NEW DIRECTIONS IN TOPOGRAPHIC l\1APPING 

By JAMES L. CALVER 

State Geologist, Virginia Division of Mineral Resources 

We are asked to consider a product of engineering, 

the topographic map, that has become a fundamental, indeed an essential, tool in our society. It 

has won this important use in local, regional, state, 

and national levels from its unique ability to serve 

basic-planning and decisionmaking problems that 

confront all levels of society, from the individual to 

the most complex group within industry and government. This accurate and up-to-date graphic representation of natural and manmade features portrays location, shape, and elevation of plains, hills, 

mountains, valleys, rivers, and lakes, as well as 

roads, buildings, dams, mines, quarries, towns, and 

cities. 

The primary goal of the National Topographic 

Mapping Program has been to complete the 1:24,000 

quadrangle map series of the 48 conterminous States 

and Hawaii. This objective was accomplished for 

Virginia in 1972 through a 10-year cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the 

Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia now has an accurate and consistent base to which a variety of critical information can be related and combined for 

decisionmaking. Although the national goal is to 

have such coverage for all States, individual States 

may shorten the time period for such coverage by 

entering into a cooperative financial agreement with 

the U.S. Geological Survey. 

The primary reason for a State geological survey 

to become interested in topographic m~ps is to obtain an accurate base on which to depict geological 

formations and mineral resources and to show physical features. Through expanded technology and a 

significant shift toward increased involvement by 

individuals in such activities as energy and resource 

exploration and development, land-use planning, en46 

vironmental protection, urban development, reclamation projects, and outdoor recreation, new and somewhat specialized products have been derived from 

the topographic mapping process. The U.S. Geological Survey has recognized the importance of these 

new approaches and has developed new products 

that can complement topographic maps and that fill 

some of the needs of urban planners and other specialists. Urgent and demanding needs have brought 

about a product known as the orthophotoquad as a 

complement for line maps; used in combination with 

a standard quadrangle map, it will provide the detail 

of a photograph. These rectified photographs make 

possible direct measurements at the scale of 1:24,-

000, and provide information in photographic detail 

that is not portrayed on conventional quadrangle 

maps. Land use and the differentiation of coniferous 

from deciduous trees can be interpreted from them. 

Orthophotoquads are of such importance that the 

U.S. Geological Survey has proposed a 3-year plan 

to have all the country's unmapped areas, except 

Alaska, photographed and have orthophotoquads 

available for sale. In Virginia, 11 orthophotoquads 

of growth areas have been received recently, and 15 

others are awaiting printing. 

Demand for orthophotoquads has been accelerating, and Robert Lyddan, Chief of the Topographic 

Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, has informed 

me that cooperative programs for their preparation 

are underway with Connecticut, Nevada, New York, 

North Carolina, and Virginia, that orthophotoquads 

are in preparation for the entire State of Arizona, 

and that the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Soil 

Conservation Service are cost sharing with the U.S. 

Geological Survey for orthophotoquad preparation. 

Orthophotomaps, another product, combine the 

features of orthophotoquads and topographic maps 
NEW DIRECTIONS IN TOPOGRAPHIC MAPPING 47 

and show, by using color tones, wetlands and vegetation differences. The Dismal Swamp and Wachapreague areas in Virginia are being prepared in this 

form. 

Of specific interest are two relatively new products, the slope map and the land-use classification 

map. The first of these is a valuable tool for landuse planning and portrays various slope zones of the 

terrain. Such maps are prepared by mechanical 

techniques from the contour plate of standard topographic maps. Classification of land into zones of 

slope may be elementary to users of topographic 

maps, but to individuals who have little or no training in engineering or geology, a slope-classification 

map is more readily understood and is a usable item. 

These maps may find great use by legislators as a 

quantitative aid in making land-use decisions. 

Land-use classification maps have become a desirable product. Interpretation and delineation of 

land-use information in conjunction with the production and revision of standard topographic maps 

in Virginia has met with the acceptance of individuals interested in current use of the land and 

planning for future uses. Land-use inventory has 

been overprinted in four 71!2-minute orthophotoquads in the Fredericksburg, Va., area. Certainly 

more such information will be required in the future. 

It is our opinion that such maps should be made 

for each 71!2-minute quadrangle. In urban areas in 

Virginia where there is an update schedule for revision every 5 years, such maps would be of great 

value to local and regional planning groups. 

Eight states have land-use-mapping programs 

utilizing ERTS data and high-altitude photography 

(Alabama, Colorado, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Tennessee). 

To implement an efficient revision program to 

keep the topographic maps up to date, Virginia has 

been divided into five sectors of approximately equal 

size; one sector is flown each year to produce quadcentered mapping photographs. These are enlarged 

three times and compared with the existing printed 

quadrangle. This comparison is an efficient way to 

determine cultural changes and to schedule priorities for updating the, topographic maps. A quadcentered photograph replaces a mosaic of perhaps 

nine or more mapping photographs formerly needed 

to depict the area of a 7lj2-minute quadrangle. These 

photographs are available for more than half the 

805 Virginia quadrangles, and the remaining are 

scheduled within the updating program. Those maps 

selected to be photorevised depict growth features 

in purple; to date about 25 percent of the Virginia 

quadrangles has been revised. This aerial photography as a sales item from the U.S. Geological 

Survey is an important byproduct of the mapping 

program. 

Intermediate-scale maps are in demand and Virginia is giving consideration to a county series at 

1:50,000 scale. This scale is easily convertible to the 

metric system and will fill the present needs as well 

as lessen the future impact caused by this country's 

adoption of the metric system. Careful consideration 

should be given to converting all the present 71;2-

minute quadrangle series from 1:24,000 to 1:25,000 

scale. Consideration should likewise be given to 

1:50,000- and 1: 100,000-scale intermediate or 

county- or regional-format maps. Such intermediatescale maps need to be designed so that they would 

be suitable for enlarging or reducing for use by 

planners and engineers. 

I would like to spend a few minutes considering 

several items that would make a good product even 

better. It is necessary to keep up-to-date State coverage at several scales, the graphics of which could 

take one-half reduction. A program should be expanded to make mapping expertise available perhaps 

on a consulting basis to public bodies for largescale mapping and to assist public agencies in the 

selection of a common scale for mapping. Other 

improvements would be to locate all routes of access 

such as trails and former roadways; to annotate all 

benchmarks; to correctly identify all public-use 

boundaries, especially those of the United States 

forests; to differentiate pipeline commodities; to 

identify river miles for the plotting of hydrologic 

data; to keep information at the same date that is 

used for county maps or maps that have scales of 

1:50,000 or 1:100,000; to better annotate restrictive land-use areas, such as hospitals, churches, 

cemeteries, military areas, actual forest boundaries, 

and airports; to identify all public recreation areas 

such as parks, forests, game management tracts, 

parkways, and so forth ; and to develop physical and 

cultural map information in digital form. 

If such improved maps were available, there 

would be more meaning in the present topographic 

mapping goals. Briefly speaking, these goals are: 

to keep up to date the 1:24,000- 1:250,000- and 

1: 500,000-scale map series; to have orthophotoquads, slope maps, orthophotomaps, and county 

maps made for areas of demand; to inform the public of map availability and uses by means of press 

releases, mail-outs, displays, and conferences, and to 

provide a communications link between the map-
48 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

maker and the user; to identify map needs; and to 

advertise byproducts such as aeriial photographs, 

stable base copies, stable base copies of color separation plates, and geodetic control. 

Who are the users of topographic maps? The early 

development of topographic mapping had a close link 

with the need for an adequate base on which the 

geology of an area could be depicted. New groups 

have found uses for the topographic map that exceed those of the geologist, even though his require--

ments have expanded to include detailed magnetic, 

gravity, and seismic data as well as stratigraphic, 

rock-type1 mineral-resource, and surface- and 

ground-water data. Every individual is a potential 

user; at present his greatest use of the map is for 

recreation, including hunting, fishing, hiking, camping, and vacationing. State agency uses throughout 

the country have increased. In Virginia, the Division of Mineral Resources utilizes topographic maps 

as bases for geologic maps and mineral-resource 

maps, and for benchmark data. The Division of 

Mined Land Reclamation uses the maps in delineating areas to be strip mined and to be reclaimed, 

and the Division of Forestry uses them in fire-control access and in the control and determination of 

insect infestation. The Division of Industrial Development uses the maps as graphic aids for depicting potential industrial building sites, the Department of Taxation utilizes enlargements as an aid 

for delineating properties, and the Game and Inland 

Fisheries Commission uses the maps to prepare 

sportsman guide maps on which campsites, picnic 

areas, and boat ramps are annotated. The Department of Highways utilizes the maps in planning 

new roadways. The Office of Emergency Preparedness maintains a file of 71;2-minute quadrangle maps 

to aid victims of natural hazards. The Outdoor Recreation Commission maintains up-to-date map files 

to locate and keep an inventory of recreational facilities, and the Historical Landmarks Commission 

makes an annotation of buildings that are on the 

National Register. Regional planning districts utilize the 7lf2-minute series for an inventory of natural 

and cultural features and for land-use plans. City 

and county planners and engineering departments 

use the maps as an aid in the development and expansion of public utilities as well as to portray various factors of environmental interest. Policemen, 

county sheriffs, firemen, and rescue ~squads utilize 

the maps to shorten the response time in answering 

emergencies. Public schools find the maps invaluable 

in courses on geography and land-use planning. 

Land surveyors, realtors, and transmission companies have asked our organization for assistance, 

including questions on the availability of aerial 

photographs and topographic maps. 

One hesitates to mention quality control in such 

an overall excellent product, but inadequate depiction of public ownership of land has become a vexing 

and frustrating problem. In Virginia, our National 

Forests are not recorded properly, and the boundaries as shown are erroneous and misleading. Consider a standard 71j2-minute quadrangle, half of 

which is designated as National Forest; however, 

within that 30-square-mile area, all the land is in 

private ownership. Not even 1 acre is owned by the 

National Forest. Further, consider the confusion of 

the poor hunter who is confronted with no-trespassing signs on land indicated on the map as National 

Forest. Also consider the frustration of the property 

owner who pleads with us to have correct boundary 

information on the map. The answer that the land 

lies within a proclamation boundary or a land acquisition boundary of the National Forest is of no 

help. These individuals become distrustful of an 

otherwise excellent product. If specifications do not 

allow accurate boundaries of forest lands and other 

public-use lands, the question will be raised over and 

over again-for whom are the maps being prepared? 

Within the past few years a new and imaginative 

system has been developed to use various .types of 

imagery in small-scale mapping. Such images have 

attracted serious investigators by offering the opportunity to monitor temporal changes through repetitive observations. Certainly users who are concerned with land-use analysis have welcomed the 

color composites derived from the spectral band of 

ERTS-1 imagery. The images now available have a 

fitted Universal Transverse Mercator grid and a 

1:500,000 scale. The map of tomorrow may be a refinement of such images. Technical advances that 

would make possible even greater resolution than 

exists today will become tomorrow's commonplace 

method for making large-scale maps. Aerial photographs will be replaced by satellite and a~irborne 

imagery, just as alidades and plane tables were replaced by photographs and electronic measuring devices. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

GEODYNAMICS 

By CHARLES L. DRAKE 

Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College 

INTRODUCTION 

Almost 200 years ago, Benjamin Franklin (1782), 

after some geological observations, wrote to Abbe 

Soulavie in France 

Such changes in the superficial parts of the globe seemed 

to me unlikely to haprp,en if the earth were solid to the 

centre. I therefore imagined that the internal parts might 

he a fluid more dense, and of greater specific gravity than 

any of the solids we are acquainted with; which therefore 

might swim in or upon that fluid. Thus the surface of the 

globe would be a shell, capable of being broken and disord,ered by the violent movements of the fluid on which it 

rested. 

Franklin thus anticipated the Geodynamics Project and the plate-tectonics model that has caused a 

revolution in geological thought during the last decade. 

Franklin continued, 

If (these thoughts) occasion any new inquides and p~roduce a better hypothesis, they will not be quite useless. You 

see I have given a loo~se to imagination; but I approve 

much mor.e your method of philosophizing, which proceeds 

upon actual observation, makes a collection of facts, and 

concludes no farther than those facts will warrant. 

Here I believe that Franklin is anticipating the 

existence of the U.S. Geological Survey and is putting his stamp of approval on the methodology that 

has been in its tradition since the days of John 

Wesley Powell. This tradition has served the country well, as have the many distinguished geologists 

of the Survey, past and present. Of special importance has been the interplay of ideas, the interchange 

of people, and the coordination of efforts between 

the Survey and the academic community, a part of 

this tradition that has been of mutual benefit to all 

parties and that should be continued and strengthened in the future. 

THE GEODYNAMICS PROJECT 

The roots of the Geodynamics Project are of some 

age, pregeological phylloxera, so to speak, and drew 

nourishment from the rich organic topsoil of geological speculation. Speculation on the origin of the 

surface features of the Earth, the causes of natural 

disasters, and the reasons behind economk emplacement of mineral deposits and hydrocarbons has a 

long and varied history. The ideas were many, but 

the data necessary to substantiate or repudiate these 

ideas were few. 

Early ideas about the origin of the surface features of the Earth were many and often bizarre, 

but no more so than the model that we find most 

acceptable today. This model assumes that the 

Earth's outer shell consists of a small number of 

large lithospheric plates that, as suggested by Franklin, are decoupled from the underlying substratum 

and move relative to one another, colliding along 

the young mountain systems, separating along the 

midocean ridge system, and sliding relative to other 

plates in regions such as that of the San Andreas 

fault system in California. Development of this 

model was less a question of establishment of new 

ideas as it was one of collecting and analyzing data 

that would allow selection from among many ideas. 

The basic data were in three areas. The first related to the concept of a rigid lithosphere overlying 

a more plastic asthenosphere. This concept had 

many adherents, Barrell (1914-15) and Daly (1914) 

especially, who concluded on the basis of geodetic 

and petrologic grounds that the asthenosphere was 

either liquid or glass. Beno Gutenburg (1926) in the 

1920's, took full advantage of inadequate data from 

the propagation of body waves through the Earth 

and concluded that a low-velocity layer existed at 

49 
50 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

depth, a conclusion that was subsequently substantiated by studies of surface-wave dispersion when 

modern electronic computers became available. Hugo 

Benioff (1949) added to the concept through his 

studies of the energy release from South American 

earthquakes during the first half of this century. He 

found a large change in the rate of energy release 

of intermediate- and deep-focus earthquakes during 

the 1920's that was not reflected by the shallowfocus earthquakes. This led to the conclusion that 

the outer shell of the Earth was decoupled from the 

interior. More recently, Joe Boyd of the Geophysical 

Laboratory, Carnegie Institution, and Peter Nixon 

of the Department of Mines, Lesotho (Boyd and 

Nixon, 1973), have come up with what they suggest 

is the first direct evidence of a less competent asthenosphere through studies of rocks blasted out of 

kimberlite pipes in southern Africa. From experimental petrology, geological thermometers and barometers have been devised that allow equilibrium 

samples of certain rock types to be related to depth 

and temperature. From studies of the rocks from the 

kimberlite pipes, Boyd and Nixon (1973) were able 

to sort out the deep stratigraphy of the lithosphere 

and the upper asthenosphere. Their results indicate 

a jump in the thermal gradient at depths of about 

150 km beneath South Africa, a jump that may be 

related to mechanical heat sources. Further, the 

rocks from depths greater than this jump are 

sheared, whereas those from above are crystalline. 

It should be noted that objections to this relatively 

simple picture have been raised both by geochemists 

and geophysicists. Nevertheless, the body of data 

that exists to date supports the first idea espoused 

by Franklin that beneath a rigid outer shell is a layer 

that is dense and fluidlike on which the outer shell 

swims. 

Franklin's second thought, that this outer shell 

was capable of being broken and disordered by the 

motions of the underlying liquid, was followed by 

the concept of continental drift. This has had a long 

and checkered history, beginning with Snider in 

1858, and had an early culmination in Wegener's 

classic presentation in 1915. This culmination was 

premature, however, because many objections were 

raised to the concept, particularly with regard to the 

driving mechanism and the mechanics of the sys,.. 

tern, but also on emotional grounds because the concept was so fantastic. When paleomagnetic data in 

the 1940's and 1950's revealed consistent polarwandering tracks for the individual continents and 

diverging tracks among the continents, the controversy was renewed. It remained a controversy until 

further magnetic work coupled with marine investigations and Deep Sea Drilling Project results led to 

the seafloor-spreading idea. This idea was based 

first on the time sequence of reversals of the magnetic field established by Cox, Dalrymple, and Doell 

(1967) of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, 

and second on the correlation, by several investigators, of this reversal sequence with the linear magnetic anomalies that parallel the midocean ridges. 

This correlation suggested that new crust was being 

formed at the axes of the midocean ridges and was 

moving laterally away from the axes at rates of a 

few centimetres per year, a conclusion borne out by 

basement ages determined by the Deep Sea Drilling 

Project. These findings did not solve the mechanism 

problems; they bypassed it by demonstrating that 

movem.ents similar to continental drift had taken 

place. Marshall Kay likes to cite Ayer's Law in cases 

like this, which states "Things that have happened, 

can happen." 

Now Franklin did not, apparently, ·conceive of the 

Earth as expanding, but if we create new crust at 

the ridge axes, we either have to expand the Earth to 

fit it in, or we must somehow get rid of old crust. 

This problem was resolved by the seismologists. 

Most of the earthquakes of the world occur at shallow depths-less than 70 km. The exceptions are 

found in the areas where young mountain systems 

and island arcs are found-around the Pacific and 

in a belt extending from the East Indies to the Mediterranean. Deep-focus earthquakes were first noted 

by Turner in 1922, and Wadati in 1935 showed that 

in the Japanese region they dipped on a plane from 

the Nippon trench to beneath the continent in China. 

Benioff in 1954 demonstrated that this was the case 

in the entire circum-Pacific region. !sacks, Oliver, and 

Sykes (1968) studied the Tonga region in detail and 

found evidence that the outer shell of the Earth, the 

lithosphere, was being underthrust to depths of at 

least 700 km. Thus, old lithosphere-old oceanic 

crust-was being returned to the deep mantle and 

reassimilated and at rates comparable with the rates 

of generation of new crust at the oceanic ridges. 

This was true in most areas around the Pacific, a 

prime exception being California, where the two 

plates slide along each other, producing shallow 

earthquakes of often devastating character. 

Thus Franklin's concept has grown into the platetectonics model, a model that evolved during the 

Upper Mantle Project, an international project designed to study the outer 1,000 km of the Earth's 

crust and upper mantle. The significance of the 

model was not lost on the scientific community, and 
GEODYNAMIC'S 51 

it resulted in the establishment of the Geodynamics 

Project, sponsored by the International Council of 

Scientific Unions at the urging of the International 

Union of Geodesy and Geophysics and the International Union of Geological Sciences, to which more 

than 50 countries have subscribed. ·'The program is 

strongly based upon the plate-tectonics model, be~­

cause it is the most promising model to date, and 

its purpose is to study the dynamics and the dynamic 

history of the Earth. A program for United States 

participation by Government agencies, academic institutions, and industry was designed by a committee of the National Academy of Sciences (Natl. 

Acad. Sci., Geodynamics Comm .. , 1973), with the aid 

of some 200 correspondents and advisors ; a committee, which includes the U.S. Geological Survey as 

a principal participant, has been established by the 

Federal Council on Science and Technology to coordinate the Federal program. 

THE FUTURE 

If we look to the future, we can see opportunities 

both in terms of basic science and in terms of practical consequences of a better understanding of the 

dynamics of the Earth. Let me give a fe,w examples. 

We have managed to bypass temporarily the question of the driving mechanism for plate tectonics by 

demonstrating indirectly that large horizontal movements of the lithosphere have taken place. Many 

models have been proposed, but we are hampered 

by the lack of boundary conditions-good physical 

and chemical parameters for the materials deep 

within the Earth. This is an area in which there are 

many opportunities for pioneering work. 

Our present model for the movement of the plates 

is essentially that proposed by Wegener in 1915. It 

is excellent on a large scale, but inconsistencies on 

smaller scales must be resolved if the model is to be 

useful geologically. For example, if the Atlantic is 

closed completely, we are faced with serious overlaps of ancient rocks in Central and South America 

that must somehow be accounted for. Resolution of 

this and similar problems will require careful analysis of the onshore and offshore data into a coherent 

picture. 

The model also assumes that the plates are rigid; 

yet there is both geodetic and geological evidence for 

vertical movements at rates comparable with the 

horizontal movements, that is, centimetres/year, 

within the plates. The apparent rates decrease by 

orders of magnitude as the length of time over 

which they are measured increases, which suggests 

that the vertical movements are oscillatory. Both the 

Geological Survey and NOAA are involved in the 

study of these vertical movements, through geological and geodetic investigations, and I can think of 

no efforts that are likely to be more fruitful than 

efforts in this area. Not only is it important scientifically to see whether or how these vertical movements are related to the major horizontal movements, but most of the hydrocarbons of the world 

have accumulated in areas that have been affected 

by these vertical motions. The petroleum industry 

has taken a very strong interest in the model. The 

search for hydrocarbons is focused upon structures 

that might trap them rather than upon oil and gas 

directly; thus, the best knowledge of the dynamic 

history of the Earth, the rates of motion and the 

accelerations and decelerations of these motions, will 

yield the most accurate structural interpretation. 

Recent studies of earthquakes by investigators 

from academic institutions and from the Geological 

Survey have led to plausible models for the initiation of major tremors. These models suggest that 

forerunners of such tremors may allow more accurate prediction of major events than has been the 

case in the past. As long a.s the lithospheric plates 

move relative to one another, earthquakes will take 

place, but it is not inconceivable to imagine that the 

stored energy might be released gradually rather 

than suddenly, thus mitigating the damage. A critical unknown is the cause of major earthquakes in 

plate interiors, such as the ones in New Madrid, 

Mo., Boston, Mass., and Charleston, S.C. These were 

very large earthquakes, but unlike those in the 

circum-Pacific region, they have no obvious relationship to the interplate reactions and perhaps are 

related to the recent vertical movements within the 

plates mentioned earlier. 

In recent years, identifiable relationships have 

been indicated between the plate-tectonics model 

and the occurrence of major ore deposits. In the Red 

Sea and Salton Sea areas-regions of diverging 

plate boundaries-metal-rich brines and sediments 

have been found. High metal contents have also been 

found in other parts of the ocean ridge system. 

Again, it is not inconce~ivable that metal concentrations may accompany the formation of new crust at 

the ridge axes, that these move laterally with time, 

and that a distillation process in the underthrusting 

areas concentrates these metals into exhalative, vein, 

or porphyry deposits. As most of the metal deposits 

with readily identifiable surface manifestations 

have already been identified, it is not unreasonable 

to conclude that the future lies with those who have 

the best understanding of the dynamic history of 
52 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

the Earth. Dan Merriam pointed out at the dedication that new approaches are also needed, but these 

must be combined with the best genetic models. 

New tools and approaches will play an important 

role in this project. The Deep Sea Drilling Project 

has be~en an exciting and scientifically productive 

program that has enormously increased our knowledge of the geology of the ocean basins. Much more 

remains to be learned from further detailed study of 

the cores in the archives. Similarly, deep drilling for 

scientific purposes on the continents, com'bined with 

very deep penetration reflection studies, promises to 

be equally revealing. A panel ,established at the instigation of the U.S. Geodynamics Committee and supported by the Carnegie Institute of Washington has 

studied this problem and has made far-re~aching 

recom·mendations. Several sources have shown enthusiasm for a continental drilling program, and it is 

inconceivable that such a program could be implemented without major participation from the U.S. 

Geological Survey. 

Of equal significance is the opportunity that exists for reevaluation and synthesis of existing geological data on the continents in light of the new 

model. Most of these data were collected and interpreted prior to the development of the new model, 

and the reevaluation will not only have beneficial 

scientific and practical consequences, but it will also 

identify critical areas that deserve additional study. 

This observation provides an opportunity to offer 

strong encouragement to basic field mapping. This 

mapping provides the basic elements of all our geological knowledge. Without it we have no boundary 

conditions. It is easy to lose sight of this when we 

have black boxes, ,computers, aircraft, spacecraft, 

ships, or othe·r exciting things to work with. 

The Geodynamics Project is not designed to find 

minerals or energy sources or to prevent natural 

disasters. It is a project whose aim is to learn about 

the dynamics and dynamic history of the Earth and 

to provide basic knowledge that will contribute to 

better utilization of the Earth's natural resources 

and to the mitigation of the effects of natural disasters. As such, it clearly falls into the area of 

responsibility of the Geological Survey. Many Survey scientists assisted in the de,sign of the U.S. Program (Natl. Acad. Sci., Geodynamics Comm., 1973), 

and I look forward to .continued Survey participation 

in i~ts implementation. 

REFERENCES CITED 

Barrell, Joseph, 1914-15, The strength of the earth's crust: 

Jour. Geology, v. 22, p. 28-48, 145-165, 209-236, 289-

314, 441-468, 537-555, 655~683, 729-741; v. 23, p. 

27-44, 425-443, 499-515. 

Benioff, V. H., 1949, Seismic evidence for the fault origin 

of oceanic de,eps: Geol. Soc. America Bull., v. 60, no. 

12, pt. 1, p. 1837-1856. 

-- 1954, Orogenesis and deep crustal structure-additional evidence from seismology: Geol. Soc. America 

Bull., v. 65, no. 5, p. 385-400. 

Boyd, F. R., and Nixon, P. H., 1973, Structure of the upper 

mantle beneath Lesotho: Carnegie Inst. Washington, 

Geophys. Lab. Ann. Rept., p. 431-445. 

Gox, Allan, Dalrymple, G. B., and Doell, R. R., 1967, Reversals of the earth's magnetic field: Sci. Am., v. 216, 

p. 44-45. 

Daly, R. A., 1914, Igneous rocks and their origin: New 

York, McGraw-Hill, 563 p. 

Franklin, Benjamin, 1782, [Letter to Abbe Soulavi,e; read 

at a meeting of Am. Philos. Soc., 21 Nov. 1788.] 

Gutenberg, Beno, 192'6, Untersuchungen zur Frage, his zu 

Welcher Tiefe die Erde Krisrtallin ist: Zeitschr. 

Geophys., v. 2, p. 24-29. 

!sacks, Bryan, Oliv;er, Jack, and Sykes, L. R., 1968, Seismology and ,the new global tectonics: Jour. Geophys. 

Research, v. 73, no. 18, p. 5855-5899. 

National Academy of Sciences, Geodynamics Committee, 

1973, U.S. Program for the Geodynamics Projectscope and objectives: Washington, D.C., Natl. Acad. 

Sci., 235 p. 

Snider, A., 1858, La creation et ses mysteres devoiles: Paris, 

A. Franck et E. Dentu, 487 p. 

Turner, H. H., 1922, On the arrival of earthquake waves at 

the Antipodes and on the measure~ent of the focal 

depth of an earthquake: Royal Astron. Soc., Monthly 

Notices, Geophys. Supp., v. 1, p. 1-13. 

Wadati, K., 1935, On the activity of deep-focus earthquakes 

in the Japanese Islands and neighborhood : Geophys. 

Mag. (Tokyo), v. 8, p. 305-325. 

Wegener, A. L., 1915, Die Entstehung der Kontinente und 

Ozeane: Braunschweig, F. Vie.weg & Sohn, 94 p. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

EARTH-RESOURCE SURVEYS 

By GEORGE J. ZISSIS 

Chief Scientist, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan 

INTRODUCTION 

In the summ.er of 1974 the world stands on the 

threshold of a new, greatly increased ability to inventory and monitor the Earth's resources. It seems 

especially appropriate to examine a few of the implications of that ability on the occasion of this 

dedication symposium, for the U.S. Geological Survey 

has played a central role in bringing earth sciences 

to bear upon our need for earth-resource surveys. 

The aspects which I wish to review briefly involve 

the development and application of remote-sensing 

technology to the attainment of the vitally needed 

resource data base. It is in this development and 

application that the U.S.G.S. has pioneered. Together 

with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and many other Federal agencies, 

the U.S.G.S. has created the knowledge needed to 

exploit ,the ~capabilities of space-based and aerial 

remote-sensing systems. Leading this activity 

within the Department of the Interior has been the 

Earth Resources Observation Sy;stems Program. 

Many persons come to mind as we think back over 

the growth of this effort. Leading them all, I am certain, would be Dr. William T. Pecora, whose vigorous 

support and wise guidance of the program was an 

inspiration to all of us. Maintaining leadership in this 

field within the Department of the Interior has fallen 

upon the capable shoulders of Dr. John DeNoyer, 

and EROS still has the wisdom, insight, and counsel 

of Dr. William Fischer. 

The developments of which I speak are well documented in the literature, partieularly in a compilation of papers presented at the 13th Meeting of 

the Panel on Science and Technology, for the U.S. 

House Committee on Science and Astronautics (U.S. 

Congress, House, Comm. Sci. and Astronautics, 

1972). Since then we have seen many of the results 

of the first Earth Resources Technology Satellite, 

and even some from the Skylab Earth Resources 

Experiments Package. 

REMOTE-SENSING TECHNOLOGY 

Remote sensing has now begun to appear in several academic curricula; it is identified as measurements remotely made by sensors not in direct contact with the object of interest. Since its explicit 

identification as a field of endeavor, about 12 years 

ago, it has constituted an extension of the already 

established and accepted practices in aerial photography and photogrammetry, including the following innovations : 

1. Imaging from space platforms. 

2. Imaging in the nonphotographic wavelength regions, particularly the infrared and microwave regions. 

3. Attainment of quantitative nonimaging spectroradiom,etric measurements from space and 

aerial platforms. 

4. Data recording and trans~mission in high-density 

electrical-signal form. 

5. Es,tablishment of signal- and data-processing 

methodologies, analog and digital, to assist 

human interpreters and to extract some information automaticaHy. 

6. Active (that is, illuminated) systems such as 

radar and laser systems. 

Thus, this fi,eld has brought to bear the power of 

modern computer, space, and electronic technologies. 

Remote sensing has expanded our data-gathering 

and information-producing capabilities and now is 

engaged in enhancing translation from information 

to meaningful decisions. The chain we must follow 

can be visualized as : 

53 
54 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

DATA~ INFORMATION~ DECISION~ BENEFITS 

The changes introduced are so radical that remotesensing technology can be viewed as a totally new 

attainment, one greater than the sum of the separate innovations. 

Some general observations can be made on the 

nature of this new technology. As it is heavily involved with the use of information-gathering tools, 

it can be deemed a passive technology, one whose 

output is without value in itself. Thus, if our pro'" 

gress through the chain stops when information has 

been produced, we will find no "demand" in the economic sens~e. As a field, remote sensing is interdisciplinary in an integrating sense. It is nearing largescale practical utilization. Although essentially 

benevolent, remote-sensing technology can be misused. Thi~s is dependent upon the decisions made. 

Much of what we have just said could also be said 

of "bugging" or so-called electronic surveillance. 

Such use of implanted sensors for spying purposes, 

whether industrial, political, or military, has had 

strong and widely discussed repercussions. Illegal 

phone tapping can be seen as a clear example of the 

misuse of a passive technology. Concern has been 

voiced internationally about the possible misuse of 

remote sensing from satellites for earth-resources 

surveys. Perhaps the most cogent treatment of this 

topic was given by the NASA Deputy Associate Adminis~trator for Applications, Leonard Jaffee ( 197 4), 

at the February 25-March 5, 197 4, meeting of the 

U.S. Outer Space Com~mittee's Working Group on 

Remote Sensing. 

The political aspects of ~earth-resources surveys 

are thus as real as the technological ones and may 

well be the pacing elements in the future of this 

field. 

APPLICATIONS 

The remarkably suecessful operation of ERT'S-1 

has allowed many investigators to demonstrate a 

wide range of uses of this particular configuration. 

Applications which seem to be at hand, range from 

mapping in the ~cartographic sense at scales on the 

order of 1:500,000 or 1:250,000 to many areas of 

broad thematic information extraction. One immediate factor is the speed with which large areas are 

covered. In almost an instant, the data for mapping 

a 185- by 185-kilometre area can be obtained. In a 

relatively short time, a State can be covered. The 

resulting product is a map of things as they were at 

one definite time, whereas a conventionally made 

map may contain old and new information and may 

represent things as they never were at any one 

moment. 

Extraction of information on the renewable and 

nonrenewable resources has been treated in considerable detail in NASA's ERTS Symposium (U.S. 

N~atl. Aeronautics and Space Admin., 197 4). Scientists in the U.S.G.S. have made significant presentations at these conferences. Monitoring and inventorying of agricultural products have been shown, 

within some limitations. to be valid activities, although they require ancillary data such a,s crop 

calendars and so-called "ground truth." The use of 

ERTS data in disaster assessment and as an aid in 

dire·cting efforts to alleviate the effects of floods and 

of drought have also been presented. Moni·toring of 

World Bank projects is an example of a perhaps less 

known but practical use of ERTS imagery. 

Time does not permit an adequate treatment of the 

results already obtained and published. For ~example, 

the activities in Canada and Brazil have been outstanding. Taken altogether, they represent an evergrowing truly global capability for use of spaee 

sensors for earth-resource surveys. 

RESEARCH 

Research in the field of remote sensing for earthresource surveys is particularly attractive. This has 

seemed so obvious that we may have failed to articulate its merits properly. Recently, while in Indonesia, 

I had occasion to try to do just that. The attributes 

that came to mind were these. First, it is applied 

research having clearly understandable~ useful goals. 

Remote-sensing research attacks urgent world problems, among them those of finite resources of food 

and energy. Second, the work is scientifically challenging. The intellectual rewards are, accordingly, 

satisfying. Third, much of the research can produce 

good results reasonably quickly. This is an important 

attribute from the point of view of those seeking 

thesis opportunities. Fourth, much of the research 

work can be founded on and developed from a basis 

of earth sciences. Partieipation in such re,search inevitably brings the scientist into invigorating encounters with computer and space sciences. Fifth, 

and perhaps most important of all, this research 

brings the researcher and the operational us,er directly together. This necessary and mutually beneficial partnership is an uncommon extension in interdisciplinary interactions, beyond what is normally 

found in research. This attribute can be equally true 

for all those who engage in remote-sensing research 

-the earth sdentist, the economist, the lawyer, the 

agriculturist, or the political scientist. Of course, not 

every program of study brings all disciplines to-
EARTH-RES.OUCE SURVEYS 55 

gether, but engagement in a series of such works 

comes surprisingly close. These five characteristics 

of remote-sensing research can be most relevant 

for work by teams in less developed countries, but 

they hold true for developed countries as well . 

For example, one res·earch area seeks to produce 

land-use maps by automatic processing of remotely 

sensed data. Our work at the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, typical perhaps of that 

by several research workers in this field, has met 

with some succ,ess already. It involves participants 

from the users at State government level as well 

as our ,scientists. Such teamwork is both rewarding 

and challenging. 

Two other examples come to mind. Our research 

in oil-slick detection began with laboratory spectroscopy and went through theoretical analyses and 

creation of models of predictive cakulations, to the 

design of system concepts; we then worked with 

the ultimate operational user of the system on costs 

and reliability. The second example involves the 

creation of theovetical and empirical models to allow 

radiation-transfer calculations in real atmospheres 

and within vegetation canopies. One capability of 

these models is used for corrections to radiometric 

multispectral data, the other for prediction and analysis of such corrected data for forests and crops. 

Again, the involvement with many parties of interest is wide and, even today, growing. The quality 

of the work is reflected in the scientific publications 

that have resulted. 

Much remains to be done, but this will always be 

true in such fields of research. One frontier lies in 

the attainment of resource-management models capable of efficient acceptance of remotely sensed data. 

Many gaps exist in our understanding of the connection between the remotely made measurements of, 

say, spectral radiance as a function of wavelength 

and the particular properties of the object being examined. Some applications remain just beyond our 

sensor configurations. Researcher eagerly await 

higher resolution multispectral systems having 

wider spectral coverage and having the observational 

advantages of geostationary platforms. 

THE FUTURE 

Dr. McKelvey's letter of invitation to present this 

paper stated that the purpose of this symposium 

was " ... to survey the public problems to which 

earth science ... should be addressed." No one today 

could resis,t such an invitation. One national issue is 

clearly evident in the field of earth-resource surveys. 

We stand, as I said before, technically on the threshold of attaining an ability to inventory and monitor 

the Earth's resources. Will there be a national decision to cross that threshold? 

Let us be very clear what is at stake here. Simply 

having earth-resources surveys does not bestow 

social and economic benefits. Such surveys are merely 

a step toward the decisions that can bring about a 

wiser management of these resources. We cannot 

take as an article of faith that better information 

leads inevitably to better decisions. We can believe 

that the likelihood of better decisions is increased 

by having improved information. Indeed, the phrase 

"necessary but not sufficient" comes to mind. 

The larger problem remains. It has been couched 

in many different terms. One that comes to mind is 

"distribution of wealth." If we consider that all the 

Earth's resources - human, natural, renewable, 

nonrenewable, energy, water, food-apply what modifiers you wish-all of these are the world's wealth, 

then we realize that the wealth is the world itself. 

How shall we divide the world? What share shall we 

leave for those to come? Will we consume the Earth, 

or husband and cherish it, sharing this wealth evenly 

with all humanity today and tomorrow? 

Others have pointed to the need for stabilizationstabilized population levels, stabilized quality of environm,ent, stabilized growth rates. If we are to 

achieve the global-management capability inherent 

in such concepts, we must develop far more powerful 

tools than mechanistic input-output management 

models, however complex these may become. Here 

the challenge is the creation of management tools 

that include and are responsive to human values. I 

suggest that this task is a social and political one. 

The decision to cross the earth-resource surveys 

threshold is similarly a political one, involving or at 

least touching all countries. The international community of earth scientists cannot stand apart from 

active participation in the decisionmaking process. 

There is little time left--delay can mean the opportunity foregone. Not making a decision is as much 

of a decision as is any other action. 

REFERENCES CITED 

Jaffee, Leonard, 1974, [Statement at the UN Outer Space 

Committee's Working Group on Remote Sensing, 25 

February 1974]: U.S. Dept. State Bull., Apr. 8, 1974, p. 

376. 

U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Science and Astronautics, 1972, Remote sensing of earth resources. A compilation of papers prepared for the 13th meeting of the 

Panel on Science and Technology-1972: Washington, 

U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 224 p. 
56 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1973, 

Symposium on significant results obtained from the 

ERTS-1: U.S. Natl. A.eronautics and Space Admin. 

Rept. SP-327, X-650-73-127. (Goddard Space Flight 

Center, Greenbelt, Md.) 

--- 197 4, Symposium on significant results and projected 

applications obtained from the ERTS-1: Edited by 0. 

G. Smith and H. Granger: Houston, Tex., U.S. Natl. 

A.eronautics and Space Admin., Earth Resources Program Office, Johnson Space Center. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

FEDERAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION OF 

NATURAL-RESOURCES STUDIES 

By RoBERT M. WHITE 

Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

It is a great honor for me to be invited to participate in this seminar on the earth sciences, commemorating the dedication of this magnificent new 

home of the United States Geological Survey. I bring 

you greetings and congratulations from your sister 

agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I bring these congratulations with just 

a touch of envy. At long last, most of the Geological 

Survey in the Washington, D.C., area will be housed 

in one place, whereas we in NOAA live and work in 

some 20 different locations. How. wonderful, I sometimes think it would be, if all in NOAA could get 

together as you are now doing in the Geological 

Survey. 

I would have hoped that Vince McKelvey would 

have asked m~e to talk about something I enjoy, 

such as the weather or fishing, both of whkh we 

have something to do with in NOAA. However, it 

is my lot to talk about interagency coordination in 

natural-resources studies. My participation in interagency coordination activities is generally something 

I would like to forget rather than talk about. 

Interagency coordination is about institutio_ns and 

processes and is generally regarded as something 

apart from scientific and technical matters. When I 

first came to Washington a decade ago, the Assistant 

Secretary for Science and Technology of the Department of C<;)'mmerce, Dr. Herbert Hollomon, in 

discussing my new duties as Chief of the U.S. 

Weather Bureau, told m·e that I would be spending 

most of my time on matters that would appear at 

first as irrelevant and far removed from the direction 

of the technical activities of the Weather Bureau. 

H·e did not tell me then that it would involve coordination of interagency activities. He was right. I 

spend more time on interagency coordination than 

any other single activity in which I am involved. 

After a few months, it was clear that interagency 

coordination may not be the stuff of scientific and 

technical ·substance, but it might very well be real 

substance in its own right. 

I would like to advance that thesis. After a decade 

in Washington, I have become convinced that unles.s 

we learn how to direct and orchestrate the work of 

diverse groups, solutions to our problems ·can 'be 

seriously retarded .. One of the major. substantive 

problems we must solve is an institutional one. Our 

abiHty, or lack of it, to estabHsh the necessary networks of specialized organizations to attack important tasks of society may very well determine success or failure. 

I have lost count of the number of interagency 

boards, .committees, and panels in which my organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, participates. You name it, and we have 

it. Interagency bodies are ubiquitous. There are interagency bodies for every level and echelon in the 

Federal Government, for the big wheels and the 

small wheels, for almost every subject and topic, 

for satellites and weather, geodesy, oce·anography, 

geology. We have them in ev~ery form-bilateral 

agreements, multilateral agreements, informal arrangements, and formal arrangements. We have 

cabinet level coordination bodies, such as the Domestic Council Committee on Environmental Resources, 

and the Water Resources Council, both chaired by 

the Secretary of the Interior. We have the Federal 

Council for Science and Technology and its subcommittees and panels. We have Federal committees 

to deal with coordination of weather services and 
58 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

geodesy. We have bilateral arrangements with the 

Geological Survey, Federal Aviation Agency, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the 

Coast Guard, the Fish and Wildlife Service. We have 

an incredible array. 

"What do they all do?" This is the criticism 

heard so often. Sometimes that is a hard question 

to answer. Are they really as ineffective as some 

people feel? Do they really solve problems, or do 

they serve only to paper over unresolvable issues? 

As with most things in life, the truth is. in between. 

Interagency bodies reflect the existence of transorganizational problems. The real world develops 

in ways frustratingly different from the ones we 

have organized for. We continually make new stabs 

at changing organizational structures to meet new 

national problems, but we never really succeed in 

encompassing all aspects of a problem in a single 

organiz,ation. Inte·ragency bodies reflect the complexity of modern problems. They reflect the wide 

spectrum. of expertise that must be brought to bear 

on them. There is no way out, except to cajole, coerce, or direct various groups that have the expertise and resources needed to get together. We cannot 

r·eorganize for every problem, and we cannot afford 

the duplication of resources that such an organizational concept implies. What we are really a:bout 

when we engage in Federal ·coordination, whether 

it applies to the field of natural resources or any 

other field, is establishing networks of expertise 

and resources. We do not have to c·ast about to 

understand what I mean by transorganizational 

problems. 

Take the problem of greatest concern to us nowenergy. Take one segment of that problem-development of oil and gas resources of the Continental 

Shelves. Literally, an 'army of organizations is immediately involved. The Geological Survey has wide 

responsibilities for the geology, geophysics, and the 

safety of oil and gas drilling on the shelf; the 

Bureau of Land Management has the leasing responsibility; the Environmental Protection Agency 

is concerned about pollution problems; the Coast 

Guard must monitor; and NOAA is concerned with 

the impact of oH development on fisheries. The solution requires coordination, but even more, it requires 

joint participation. 

Another kind of resource problem is represented 

by the management of the coastal zones of the 

United States. Recent legislation, the Coastal Zone 

Management Act of 1972, sets up a system for State 

management of our coastal zones. It would be hard 

to find a problem involving more agencies. Some·-

times I think every single agency in the Federal 

Government must have a stake. 

The question is, how do you bring all Federal 

agencies together so that their interests are represented. What is more important, how ·c'an their 

talents be used in establishing the policies and 

guidelines? 

It is not just that problems are more complex; 

other reasons underlie the formation of interagency 

mechanisms. Take multiple-application technologythe technology that applies to many problems. A 

good example is spaee technology. It can be used to 

study mineral resources, fisheries, oceanography, 

meteorology-and so on. Suddenly we are confronted 

with the question of how to deploy such a technology. 

We are fortunate enough to have- had the wisdom 

to establish a space agency to develop the technology 

for all space vehicles. The more- difficult institutional 

question is. whose responsibility is it to operate the 

space systems and use the data. There is no way to 

deal with that problem except by bringing interested and affected group.s together. Again, a need 

for interagency bodies. 

When you get right down to it, we might very well 

ask why there are so few interagency coordinating 

bodies rather than so m'any. I am being only slightly 

facetious. Federal coordination, however, is only one 

corner of a very much larger problem-one that deals 

with a phenomenon that is affecting the way Government operates. It is not only Federal agencies 

that have interests. The people "out there" -the 

constituencies, interest groups, various State and 

local governments, the citizen himself-all are affected. They also want in. They want participation 

and they should have it. Coordination needs to be 

more than Federal. 

I am caught up in an activity that has illustrated 

to me the widening circlers of who must be involved. 

In NOAA we deal with resources of a different kind 

from those you deal with in the Geological Survey. 

Let us take the conservation of the world's whales 

as an example. I happen to be the United States 

Commissioner to the International Whaling Commission. We recently had our annual meeting in 

London. The issue we faced was how to establish 

conservation programs that would prevent endangerment of whale species and restore depleted stocks 

as rapidly as possible. The is·sue is emotional and 

symbolic. It is one on which environmental and conservation groups have s,trong positions. It is ·also 

one in which the structure of the International 

Whaling Commission favors those who seek weak 

conservation measures. It became absolutely vital 
FEDERAL INTERAGENCY COORDIN,A.TION OF NATURAL-RESOUR.CES STUDIES 59 

to involve nongovernmental groups in every stage of 

our planning in order to arrive at difficult decisions 

as to how to proceed. The Coastal Zone Management 

Program is also a good example of the necessity of 

bringing in the views of many groups at the State 

and local levels. 

Interagency coordination provides mechanisms for 

hearing all sides of a question within the Federal 

structure. These mechanisms can be good or bad. 

At their best, they can attack very difficult problems 

and yield excellent results. At their worst, they are 

bureaucratic fortresses of delay and procrastination 

and deterrents to innovation. Too often, they take 

the latter form. Why are they so often so frustrating? There are many reasons. Often, .the agency 

representatives are given no real authority; often, 

they have no real standing in their own agencies 

and no freedom for compromise or decisions. Often, 

the budgetary discipline of the system causes a 

built-in reluctance to innovate. We could go on. We 

need to look at the set of causes that makes these 

coordinating bodies sometimes ineffective. Unless 

we can make interagency mechanisms work and unless we can get groups together, we are in deep 

trouble. 

Too frequently we think in terms of developing 

new institutions because of dissatisfaction with the 

old. In many cases, new institutions are needed, but 

in many more cases, the problem is to use institutions 

that already exist. I keep plugging away at Federal 

interagency coordination because I do see instances 

of magnificent results through the establishment of 

networks of institutions. It all makes it worthwhile. 

Let me comment on a few of these, in areas with 

which I am. familiar. 

A good example was the execution of the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological Experiment 

(BOMEX). This was an experiment which took place 

in 1969, off the island of Barbados. The purpose was 

a field study of the interaction between the oceans 

and the atmosphere. Through the Federal Committee 

for Meteorologi·cal Services, it was possible to enlist 

the efforts of 10 Federal agencies along with academic and industrial institutions., working together 

on a program for 3 years, requiring extensive resources. 

Another good example is in the field of hydrology. 

The International Field Year of the Great Lakes was 

a successful field program only because of the active 

participation of many different agencies of the 

Federal Government. 

NOAA's working relationship with the Geological 

Survey is a model of bilateral agency cooperation. 

The deputy directors of the two organizations meet 

regularly to plan joint ·efforts and resolve issues. 

The relationship works because Vince McKelvey· 

and I both insist that it work. We have similar arrangements with NASA, the FAA, and the Coast 

Guard, all of which work excellently. 

I suppose we expect too much from interagency 

committees. Where they have directive authority 

as in many bilateral arrangements., they frequently 

work. Where there is a specific task to be done, they 

frequently work. Where they are of a standing 

variety, they frequently fail. Where interagency 

bodies do not have directive power, they can still be 

useful if we do not expect the·m to do more than 

their authority permits. 

I see of no way to get our jobs done without the·m. 

Some say they cannot get their jobs done with them. 

It sounds like marriage-and maybe that is what 

this is all about---'the marriage of agencies. It is, in 

fact, a phenomenon more enduring than a great 

many marriages. It will be with us until death us 

do part. There is no alternative but to make it work. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

LAND RESOURCE-ITS USE AND ANALYSIS 

By JOHN c. FRYE 

Chief, Illinois State Geological Survey 

Organized human society cannot exist without 

the basic resources of land to sustain and support it. 

Although we speak of food, shelter, and water as the 

es,sential commodities, all of these are derived from 

use of a land area. Furthermore, for several thousand 

years, mineral raw materials have been an essential 

item for hum~an society, and 'they, also, are derived 

from the Earth. Therefore, their procurem,ent is 

another form of land use. Indeed, the concept of use 

of the land resource is so all encompassing that it is 

difficult to consider any societal problem that does 

nort in some way involve land use. 

In spite of this universal dependence, the philosophical approach to the use of land has historically 

differed widely among the many human cultures. 

In some ancient and in some primitive societies, the 

land-that is, the Earth on which we live and its 

indigenous plant and animal population-was held 

in great reverence. An ancient Sanskrit prayer expressed the concept in the phrase "0, Mother Earth, 

ocean girded and mountain breasted, pardon me for 

trampling on you." 

In America, the native Indians had a profound 

reverence for the land. Chief Joseph is quoted as 

saying, ". . . I never said the land was mine to do 

with as I chose." More than 100 years ago, at a 

treaty parley in the Northwest, an Indian leader 

said, "The Great Spirit, in placing men on the earth, 

desired them to take good care of the ground, and 

to do each other no harm." 

In contrast, western culture has generally viewed 

the land as being for the exclusive use of man, to be 

modified or exploited as the individual owner or the 

local society wishes at the moment. The contrast in 

attitude was eloquently stated a half century ago 

by Willa Cather. 

60 

When they left the rock or tree or sand dune that had 

sheltered them for the night, the Navajo was careful to 

obliterate all trace of their temporary occupation. He 

buried the embers of the fire and the remnants of food, unpiled any stones he had piled together, filled up the holes he 

had scooped in the sand .... Father Latour judged that, 

just as it was the white man's way to assert himself on 

any landscape, to change it, make it over a little (at least 

leave some mark or memorial of hi.s sojourn), it was the 

Indian's way to pass through a country without disturbing 

anything; to pass and leave no trace, like fish through the 

water, or birds through the air. 

Against this historical contrast, we must view 

present-day North America. The western practice of 

unrestricted land modification, if -carried to an extrerne, can result in modifications of one locality that 

seriously interfere with land use in an adjacent area. 

Land-use practice by a local group may prevent the 

larger society from making desired or necessary use 

of the land, including the production of food and raw 

materials. Such confHcts of land use have forced 

upon our collective conseiousness the fact that, if 

our civilization is to survive, the use of land, particularly in the urbanizing areas, must be based on 

sound factual data and directed in such a way that 

it will not cause social deterioration. The numerical 

size of our population makes it abundantly clear 

that to support our .citizens, even at a subsistence 

level, we are far past the point of return to the 

land ethic of the American Indian-even though 

there are those of us who wish that we could do so. 

The Honorable John D. Dingell underscored this 

fact when he said, "You are not going to sell aesthetics to a starving Hindu." 

Because our modern society c,annot return to the 

ancient and primitive ethic of preservation of the 

terrain in its pristine condition nor continue in the 

western ethic of "do as you please to any parcel of 
LAND RESOURCE-ITS USE AND ANAL,YSIS 61 

land you hold in fee simple title," we must move to 

a position between these two, but quite different 

from either. We must say in effect that the owner 

of a parcel of land may use it to his own benefit as 

long as that us.e does not conflict with the overriding 

needs of the populace and of the Nation, and that, 

preferably, the us·e should be compat,ible with the 

long-term needs and desires of the national culture. 

Let me state clearly that I am not sufficiently 

presumptuous to contend that I can define the longterm needs and desires of our national culture, but 

I am convinced that those groups in our society that 

make such long-term decisions should base them on 

adequate scientific and technical data. Here enter 

geology, geochemistry, hydrology, geophysics, mineral-resource evaluation, and topographic mapping 

-all areas of knowledge, or activities, in which 

geological surveys have particular and extensive 

expertise. 

We are here to take part in the dedication of the 

National Center of the United States Geological 

Survey, and particularly of the John Wesley Powell 

Building of that National Center. This is indeed an 

appropriate forum for the discussion of the application of scientific and technical data to the wise use 

of our land resources. Major Powell was a giant 

among pioneers, not only in scientific exploration 

but also in the development of governmental agencies that made possible the generation of data in a 

context in which it could be useful to public decisionmakers. 

Now, let us take a bri-ef look at techniques available for attacking this broad basic problem and the 

dire·ctions that may be taken in the future. 

The geological sciences, in all their applied 

branches, must be called upon to furnish the needed 

information for evaluation of our basic land resource. Many of the applications are obvious and 

have been described repeatedly and at length. Mapping of the topography and of the surficial geology 

clearly is part· of the first step, because many of the 

essential features of the land are derived from these 

basic elements and can be understood only in the context of such background. The distribution and lithologic character of the earth materials at the surf,ace, 

and to depths of as much as 50 feet, have a direct 

bearing on virtually any human use of the land. 

However, it is not enough merely to map the distribution of the formally deseribed rock-stratigraphic 

or time-stratigraphic units. The mapped units must 

be characterized as to lithology, mineral composition, engineering properties, hydrologic characteristics, and lateral and vertical variability, and indication must be given of the rock type immediately 

underlying each unit mapped. The soils that have 

developed on the described deposits should be 

mapped from the standpoint of their physical properties as well as their agricultural utility. Each of 

the materials units mapped should be evaluated as 

to its suitability for the many specialized uses that 

can be made of a particular parcel of land----<be it for 

residences, large buildings, highwaY's, recreation, 

waste management, mineral-resource development, 

agriculture, or other use. 

The type of map evaluation described is almost 

universally needed to determine what use of the 

land would be most beneficial to society. However, 

this basic evaluation is only the beginning of the 

application of the geological sciences. Essential in 

some areas, and for some uses, is a wide range of 

specialized data that may pertain to rocks hundreds 

or thousands of feet below the surface. Examples 

of these supplemental data are the presence or absence of aquifers containing ground-water supplies, 

and the quality and abundance of such potential 

water supplies ; the presence and distribution of 

former or active underground mining that might at 

some time affect the use of the land surface; the 

character of deep rock units that are potentially 

useful for the safe disposal of liquid wastes; the 

seismic characteristics of the area, which can be 

used to evaluate earthquake hazard; and, of great 

future importance, the location ·and character of mieral resources that have potential for development 

so that their availability can be protected until they 

are needed. The last point is particularly relevant 

in the vast reaches of public land in the western half 

of our Nation, where we have been moving from an 

early policy of "free-for-all" for mineral claims and 

exploita;tion, toward a policy of preservation, but 

without accurate and detailed knowledge of the po ... 

tential mineral resources that may be needed desperately at some future time'. 

The future availability of mineral resources is a 

problem that illustrates the importance of the concept of multiple-sequential use of land. If an area 

having an important mineral resource that has the 

potential to fill future needs is identified, the first 

phase of land use might be for recreation, for "open 

space," or for preservation. The first phase can then 

be followed by a second ·phase of mineral production, 

after which a possible third phase could be devoted 

to waste disposal, urban developm·ent, agricultural 

production, or recreation, as the needs of society at 

that time might dictate. The concept of multiplesequential use of land is not new, and in fact it has 
62 EARTH S,CIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVIGE 

on occasion been practiced by accident. In the future 

it should be practiced by deliberate intent, but it 

must be based on sound detailed information about 

the mineral resource involved and the suitability of 

the subseqently disturbed area for a third phase of 

use. This last phase clearly indicates the need for 

continuing research on the problem·s of reclamation or restoration of disturbed land areas. 

As our social structure be,comes more complex, 

and as we become increasingly more dependent 

upon the products of science and technology, we 

require increasingly sophisticated data on which 

to base decisions for the specialized uses of our land 

resource. This is well illustrated by the area of waste 

management. Solid waste is generally contained in 

sanitary landfills, which are a specialized form of 

land use. Landfills, which now occupy only a very 

small segment of the land area, have a potential side 

effect for the pollution of water resources that may 

move far beyond the site. Research on the leachates 

from landfills and the resultant potential for pollution is only starting at a few places, but it is an area 

of research that needs vigorous support in the near 

future from the earth-science agencies of the Federal 

Government. The effluent from landfills contains an 

amazing mix of potentially toxic trace elements and 

deleterious ions derived from the refuse in the landfill. Bas,ic research is required to determine which 

and how many of the many potentially toxic constituents will be carried outward from the fill into 

the regional terrain to become potential pollutants 

of the regional water supply or will re~main trapped 

in the surrounding sediments. Such research, although considered by some to be pure science, is 

essential to our social existence in the near future. 

The hydrologic system through the landfill is as 

important as the geologic parameters that influence 

the circulation of fluids. Hydrologic data are also 

essential in evaluating the potential effects of injection of liquid industrial wastes into deep rock 

layers. 

Land use may be importantly influenced by a 

group of natural phenomena that have been loosely 

called "geologic hazards." They include ground 

movement associated with earthquake shocks, unstable ground and potential surface movement, ep1-

sode flooding, accelerated shore erosion, and potential volcanic activity. At least some research is 

underway on all these problem phenomena. The best 

available information on these potential hazards 

must be part of the background data on which landuse decisions are based. 

An aspect of the land-use resource that has been 

generally disregarded is the societal use of subsurface space. Although airspace above the land surface 

has been generally, and legally, regarded as being 

within the realm of public allocation, the use of 

volumes of space below the land surface has been 

considered subject to public control in only a few 

spedal circumstances. In our metropolitan areas, the 

use of subsurface space is becoming a societal probblem. Subways, sewers, water mains, and service 

access for years have been normally situated unde!l"-

ground in metropolitan areas. However, use of the 

subsurface for such purposes competes with groundwater supply, waste disposal, waste-water conveyance and storage tunnels, mineral-resource development, and unde,rground storage of commodities and 

presents a problem that has been given neither legal 

nor public consideration. It is to be hoped that, before future decisions are made on the allocation of 

subsurface space that might permanently render it 

unusable for any other purpose, the earth sciences 

will be asked to provide the technical facts that 

should be background to any political decision on 

the subject. 

In an analysis of land use, we must consider such 

proble·ms as reclamation of strip-mined land; possible future subsidence of undermined land; regional 

effects of canalization, artifieial impoundments, and 

levee construction along major rivers; and the conversion of vast acreages of agricultural land to 

urban use. The effects of such actions have long 

been predicted by earth scientists, but, unfortunately, the implications of future effects commonly 

have not been a component of the decisionmaking 

process. Furthermore, continuing research is cle~arly 

indicated. For example, we know more about effective procedures for reclaiming shallow strip-mined 

land with relatively gentle slopes and an original 

cover of unconsolidated Pleistocene deposits than 

we do about techniques of preventing surface subsidence in undermined areas. 

Having considered the areas in which earth scientis,ts should furnish needed data to guide the political decisionmakers in the use of our limited resource of land, we might briefly consider new techniques available to achieve their needed goals. Most 

of the approaches used by the geologist, geochemi8t, geophysicist, and hydrologist are well established, but new techniques of data gathering and 

predictive capability are constantly evolving. One of 

the major technologic .changes is in our ability to 

analyze smaller and smaller quantities of potentially 

toxic substances. Publicly acceptable tolerances tend 

to follow our ability to detect. As the level of our 
LAND RESOURCE-ITS USE AND ANALYSIS 63 

chemical and mineralogical analytical .capability increases-particularly our ability to deteot trace 

quantities-we as a society tend to become conscious 

of possible hazards, and we consequently tighten our 

standards of acceptance until all tolerance disappears. In the wise use of our land· and water resources, we mus~t be aware of the f.act that if we 

place our standards of acceptance beyond the level 

that existed before modern human societies occupied 

an area, we are being ridiculous. As a former Director of the United States Geological Surve~y has 

pointed out, nature's norm,al functioning is the 

world's greatest polluter. Clearly, therefore, an important area of basic research is the establishment 

of "background" data-that is, the determination 

of the levels at which the many constituents existed 

in the environment before the advent of western 

culture. Furthermore, the concept of zero tolerance 

-that is, zero dis~charge to the environment of the 

products of human activity-is totally unrealistic. 

We must determine instead what level we can 

tolerate. 

New technologies have evolved that can aid the 

earth scientist in fulfilling his needed role of delineating and analyzing the factors involved in our 

land resource for the decisionmakers. Prominent 

among these are remote sensing, including sensors 

on satellites, and computer manipulation of data. 

Other new and exotic techniques will evolve through 

time, but it should be remembered that these are 

only new "tools of the trade," to aid in achieving 

the needed results. In themselves, they do not alter 

the problem or the basic darta needed by the political 

decisionmakers. 

In conclusion, let me return to the basic problem 

with which I started. The demands and needs of 

today's increasing population require that we depart 

from the philosophies of earlier cultures-be they 

ancient, primi~tive, or wes,tern-in their approach to 

the use of our land resources. Social decisions for 

land-use must, in the future, be based on the best 

and most reliable information that our public decisionmakers can obtain. We can no longer afford 

whimsical or emotional decisions, or decisions based 

on vicious self-interest. Earth scienti~sts must use all 

the developing and advanced technology available to 

furnish our public administrators with the needed 

data. In turn, governmental bodies must support the 

acquisition of the needed data-at Federal, State, 

and local levels-by encouragement and funding, and 

they must heed the data available to them in their 

formulation of public polices. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TRANSFER 

By JosEPH S. ]ENCKES 

Administrative Assistant to Senator Paul J. Fannin 

I find myself in a very unique and ambiguous situation, in that I don't know a great deal about geology. I do know a little something about politics, and 

maybe I might have something to say that will relate to some of the talks today. I first knew about 

this symposium a couple of days ago when Mr. 

Bettwy, who is the Land Commissioner of Arizona, 

called and said, "Joe, why don't you go out there; 

it's going to be very informal. Not too many people, 

no television-just talk for a little while about land 

use and other things in Arizona. No problem." And 

I said, "Well, what's the topic?" He said, "A very 

simple topic." I'll read i~t rto you: 'Interfaces for a 

National Response to Resource Demands-A Need 

for Interagency lnterdis:ciplinary Coordination,' subject of talk: 'Technology Information Transfer.''' I 

said, "What does ~that mean?" He said, "It's a snap. 

It means how we communicate information." I said, 

"Well that ought to be very simple, I'm an expert on 

that." 

So, I got the information that he sent, including 

a paper that's so technical I don't understand it. 

That made me even more nervous. I thought, "I'm 

going to be speaking to all these technical people 

and experts., and I'm not going to know anything, 

and I'll make a fool of myself." And then I thought, 

"I ought to be able to just 1stand up there and talk 

a little bit about Arizona and tell some of the problems we have." Then I began to think of the title of 

my topic, "Technology Information Transfer." The 

tible is so complicated, and it has to do with communicating ideas, communicating data. And I 

thought, "The very thing I'm suppose to talk about 

is so complicated that the man on the street doesn't 

understand it." 

Then I began to wonder if the farmer, the city 

64 

planner, and the water man in Arizona would understand these data when they get them. To illustrate 

that, I must tell you •a little s·tory that's true. It did 

not happen in Arizona. There's a farmer out west 

and the coyotes are eating his sheep. He says to 

himself, "My gosh, I can't control this thing. I have 

to go to the Gov·ernment. They'll help me out." So 

he comes to Washington, and he meets a bureaucrat 

in one of the departments. The bureaucrat says, 

"There's no problem, Mr. Farmer. We'U handle this 

just like we handled the screwworm problem. We'll 

f.eed the coyotes the same stuff and that will s~terilize 

them and you'll have no more proble·ms." And the 

farmer said, "Sir, you don't seem to understand. The 

coyotes aren't making love to the sheep, they're eating them!" 

So maybe ~that's part of our problem. Maybe the 

politicians and the bureaucrats and the technicians 

somehow are not getting the point across. 

I come from Arizona. We're very conservative in 

Arizona. Let me tell you a little bit about Arizona's 

land. Arizona is a pretty big State: It covers an 

area of 114,000 square miles. Public land in the 

State, owned by the State, consists of about 11;2 

million acres or 13 percent of the total. That's just 

State land and it is scattered all through Arizona. 

The Federal land is 45 percent of the total. The 

Indian land is 27 percent. Private land is 13 percent. 

I don't want to get too polirtical here, but we had a 

talk on land use, and if you go to Phoenix, Ariz., 

and you tell the·m there that somebody in Washington is going to tell them how to run their land, 

they're unhappy. They want to control what little 

land they have. They are concerned that perhaps the 

Federal Government-some of the people in the Federal Government-care more about the national in-
TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TRANSFER 65 

terest than they do about the poor guy who lives in 

Arizona. Now that may be right, it may be wrong, 

but that's what they're concerned about. 

Let me tell you a little about some of the proble·ms 

that relate to thi1S data business that we're all supposed to be talking about. How do you get the data 

out? How do you communicate it? How do you transfer it? I read through a technical paper about the 

ERTS s~atellite. As I was talking about what to speak 

on, I asked, "Well, is the farmer getting that information? Does the farmer know when half his grazing land is dead?" Remember it comes up white 

instead of red on one kind of image, because it's 

dead and doesn't have any heat anymore. I was told, 

"Well, we're trying to get it to them." I ~said, "Is the 

Geological Survey giving the Department of Agriculture this information?" "Well, we're starting to." 

And I said, "How about the mine·rs ?" One percent of 

the land in Arizona is used for mining, and we produce 50 percent of the Nation's copper. So, we have 

to be concerned about our things, and we're a little 

concerned about some of these data. I asked, "How 

is it working?" and was told, "The satellite is working great." 

You can get ERTS data. A satellite is great. It 

doesn't have a vested interest, and they say it's 

working fine. In Arizona, they found out that they 

don't even have to make a field inspection anymore 

when they're looking for powerlines because they 

have all these photographs. There are problems, but 

good things are also happening. Arizona is getting 

a land-use plan that they want on a local level and . ' with the help of the Geological Survey, ERTS, and 

other data-gathering systems, they're getting- a plan 

together. 

Let me tell what else Arizona has done. They have 

a system called the Arizona Trade Off Model 

(ATOM). Here's what it does. They have a big computer, and they feed in a lot of demographic information-population, transportation, how the air is 

here, and how the water is there. They put it all in, 

and then a corporation will say, "We may want to 

move to Arizona. What can you tell us? Where should 

we move?" The computer is asked a question, and 

out comes the little card. It says, "Based upon your 

power need, your water needs, your electric needs, 

your real estate needs, the type of people, the skills 

that you have, and the people that you have, you 

should move to thi'S point." 

Maybe what I would like to see is this. A building, a square building. A person walks into the buflding and says, "I want to know X about this piece of 

land." And he would get a transparency-just pick 

it up and there the information is. Now they've got 

something like that, I know. At the Land Office you 

can find out a little bit about land management. At 

the Agricultural Office you can learn a 'little about 

that. You can go to Soil Conservation, and you can 

go to AEC. You've got to go all over the lot. Then I 

find out that nobody speaks the ·same langauge anymore! Remember this title-"Technology Information Transfer." I don't know what it means! So 

there's ~a problem; it has a technical name-"noncompatible data." This agency's got one mouthful 

and this one's got another. Example, I can only 

live by examples. You. know what an arroyo is? It 

may be many things. It may he a dried creek. It may 

be an ear muff. It may be a Mexican freeway. It may 

be contraband. So we have to get our data right. 

How do you do that? Scientists speak in gobbledygook, farmers speak in gobbledy-gook, AEC people 

speak in gobbledy-gook, and nobody understands 

anybody. Maybe we have to do something about our 

terminology; maybe we'll have to go back to school 

and learn to use a simple language, like how do 

you communic·ate data or how do you communicate 

infonnation? I don't even know what interagencyinterdis'Ciplinary coordination means! We ought to 

be simple. Hopefully, we can take politics out of 

data systems. What we do with our land i1s a political 

decision; it's a policymaking decision. But if data 

and systems get all confused and all wrapped up in 

the policy matter, you don't come out with a very 

good conclusion. I don't know what the answer is. 

I don't know whether it's one agency or not. I don't 

know whether we just have to call it a Govern·ment 

data agency, and no connection with any departm·ents. But you've got to get back to "square one·," 

you have to let people know, and you have to let the 

public know; we can't make proper decisions without 

proper data. 

As a politician, I know we ought to make things 

as simple as we can make them. We need the Geological Survey. When I saw all of this equipment out 

here, I was impressed ; you can do great things, and 

it will help. So, keep it simple·, keep the data coming, 

and don't take all of Arizona's land away. Leave us 

that 13 percent, and if we get the information, I 

think the people of Arizona will work up a good 

land-use plan. 

To get serious for a moment here·, and I will end. 

The Governor of Arizona, Jack Williamrs, has written a letter to Mr. McKelvey. Mr. Radlinski, I think, 

is here to accept this letter and memento: 
66 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

Dear Mr. McKelvey: 

On this occasion of the dedication of the new John Wesley 

Powell F'ederal Build~ng, it is my pleasure to present this 

plaque, representative of over 100 years of historical ties 

between John Wesley Powell's most significant accomplishment in the State of Arizona. John Wesley Powell explored this, great land for over 40 years before Arizona 

ever became a State. He recogniz.ed the significance not 

only of the land and its resources, but he pioneered studies 

of the linguistics of the inhabitants of this land-the American Indians-who today occupy over 1

4 of our State. It is 

highly significant that this new building be named after 

this gveat man. Arizona is proud of our long standing relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey and we are 

looking forward with high expectations to future accomplishments which will take place in this new structure. 

Sincerely, 

Jack Williams 

Governor, State of Arizona 

It's a tremendous structure; you've got tremendous people there. Just keep it simple. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION 

OF NATURAL-RESOURCES PROBLEMS 

By NATHANIEL p. REED 

Assistant Secretary of the Interior 

for Fish and Wildlife and Parks 

We must not, at the outset, consider the interdisciplinary approach to problem solving as it·self new 

or in any way unique to this decade. Many of the 

so-called great individualists of the past in truth 

were great because they were adept at orchestrating 

a div·erse collection of talents and resources into a 

focused effort to attain their objectives. Explorers 

before and after John Wesley Powell have enjoyed 

success substantially proportional to their ability to 

meld several disciplines. in the pursuit of an overriding objective and to pursue that objeetive with 

determination. The same can be said of the captains 

of industry and the famous generals of military 

history. 

More recently, we have been bemused with the 

mechanisms of operations research, system·s analysis, 

and the like. Again, the emphasis was on the means 

of getting a mission accomplished, usually within 

a cost-effectiveness framework. Inputs and outputs 

were generally measured in dollars, or, varying nondollar outputs were compared with alternative inputs of dollars. The variants were many and were 

fully capable of earning a niche in history for their 

perf ector. 

What we are talking about, then, is not a new 

concept but rather an expansion in the use of new 

planning tools, concepts, techniques, and discipline·s, 

many of which were not available earlier or were not 

considered necessary. What we are considering, also, 

is the basic decision and its alternatives as well as 

the alternative means of implementing the decision 

once it is made. That is a basic change. 

To be specific, the construction agencies have been 

making decisions for decades to build water projects 

on the basis of engineering and economic analyses. 

The time has come to add systematic environmental 

analysis to the considerations that lay the bas,is for 

a go, no-go decision~to proceed or to halt. The environment:alists must be a part of the basic decisionmaking appartus.. 

At issue in the 1970's is a belated recognition that 

factors heretofore ignored must be brought to bear 

in decisions that affect, particularly, the husbandry 

of scarce resources. Some resources are renewable, 

assuming that they are not irreversibly damaged by 

man's activities; others are so finite in supply as to 

be exhaustible in terms of economic recovery. 

In short, we must look critically not only at the 

alternatives of how we do things, in the traditional 

sense of maximizing revenues, but also at whether 

there are more basic alternatives to the action that 

would maintain a measure of resource values for 

future generations; whether the decision should be 

made now, or whether the options should be held 

open; and whether to take no action, or whether to 

pull ahead, counting on the genius of our technicians 

to do something better later-buggies ou tel as sed by 

autos, whale oil replaced by petroleum. 

Will petroleum be replaced by fusion, solar power, 

or other sources of energy to power this great economy? Or must we settle for a more conservative 

level of growth? The full range of these decisions 

requires environmental knowledge and viewpoint. In 

short, both the depth and breadth of our considerations must be much greater. We now must consider 

not only whether to take oil and gas from the Gulf 

of Mexico off Louisiana but also whether energy 

alternatives are available to the Nation that would 

have improved prospects for sparing our national environment. This requires the advice, counsel, and, I 

67 
68 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

submit, the consent of dis·cipline not previously 

privy to decisionmaking of the more profound type. 

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) 

mirrors the public interest and concern in looking 

at national problems in a multidisciplinary context. 

It requires that all agencies of the Federal Government "utilize a systematic, inte]}disciplinary approach which will insure the integrated use of the 

natural and ~social sciences and the environmental 

design arts in planning and decisionmaking which 

may have an impact on man's environment." 

The courts have restated the essence of the NEP A 

requirement thus: 

NEP A mandates a case-by-case balancing judgment ... in 

each individual case, the particular .economic and technical 

benefits of planned action must be assessed and then 

weighed against the environmental cost; alternatives must 

be considered which would affect the balance of values. 

The magnitude of possible bene,fits and possible costs may 

lie anywhere on a broad spectrum . . . in some cases the 

(economic and technical) benefits will be great enough to 

justify a certain quantum of environmental costs; in other 

cas,es they will not be sn great and the proposed action 

may have to be abandoned or significantly altered so as to 

bring the benerfits and costs into a prope·r balance. 

To be redundant, the full meaning is that the modern concept of multidisciplinary planning requires 

that the planning team must include persons skilled 

in the environmental arts and sciences, and they 

must be included at the earliest stage of planning 

and at the critical decision points so that the basic 

decirsion is the right one, in terms of the long-term 

well-being of man. 

This well-being of man is now the critical issue. 

There must be a clear recognition that, along with 

the Biblical authorization for domination by man of 

his environment goes a stewardship responsibility, 

which, if not discharged wisely, will eventually "do 

him in," or at least whittle down his numbers to 

some level more in keeping with a natural carrying 

capacity of his environment. You, as scientists, 

know that, and it is not necessary to belabor the 

point. 

Man is in every sense a part of the Earth's 

ecoystem-a closed loop in which any disturbance 

to one sector reverberate's through the whole web. 

The general public senses this re~lationship and, I 

fear, is more concerned with the implications than 

many scientists. Thank God for the public concern! 

If the NEP A mandates the interdis-ciplinary approach, the principles and standards of the Water 

Resources Council provide the planning framework. 

They are, on first examination, so complex that 

they threaten to fall of their own weight. It is the 

challenge of the planning wizards to make them 

function. The standards do take into account multidisciplinary considerations. What they do not yet 

take into consideration is the need for multiagency 

interaction. 

I can see little merit in adding environmental 

planners to the planning staffs of the water-develoPment agencies, expecting thereby to have those 

agencies turned around from their traditional way 

of maximizing dollar benefits for a select clientele 

bent on a single objective-development. What is 

needed is the informed input of such agencies as 

the Fish and Wildlife Service, the Environmental 

Protection Agency, and the Geological Survey in 

the planning of Federal and federally assisted 

projects. There must be a planning team representative of advocate agencies-and of the general 

public-in a planning environment that invites interaction, opposing viewpoints, and outright friction 

at times. Alternatives representing the points of 

view must be formulated and compared. Tradeoff's 

must be evaluated and selections made. There must 

be recognition that some environments must be let 

alone and that nonstructural alternatives are the 

test. I believe that this interaction among agencies 

must take place and that, properly directed, it will 

produce enlightened results. 

As an example of the institutional aspect, the 

question of what agency performs the fish and wildlife aspects of planning is covered in the Fish and 

Wildlife Coordination Act. Thirs Act requires that 

the Service be consulted in such instances and that 

the Secretary of the Inte,rior provide a report based 

on such findings. It also mandates certain considerations of fish and wildlife. 

As environmentalists we are ill prepared for this 

kind of venture. The linkage between environmental 

excellence and human well-being is now only obrscurely traced in many facets. There is a dearth of 

basic information on the exact characteristics of 

ecosystems and the reactions of those ecosystems 

to disturbances of various kinds. "What can we 

reason but from what we know?", to restate 

Alexander Pope's query. We must know more, and 

quickly. 

Generally, Federal missions concerning the environment are pointed tow,ard increasing our knowledge of the total environment, toward protection of 

the environment, and toward control and abatement 

of pollution. Understanding, describing, and predicting environmental phenomena require the investigation or study of weather, ocean-current patterns, 

earthquakes, and a host of other environmental disturbances and interactions. Basic inventories, which 
INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF NATURAL-RESOURCES PROBLEMS 69 

describe the extent, location, and quality of natural 

resources must be compiled; probably the most important are studies to understand the impact of 

man upon the environment. 

This is no simple task. It means that we must 

learn something of the composition of the biologieal 

community being affected, including species, numbers, biomass, life history, and distribution in space 

of populations. It means that we must study the 

quantity and distribution of the nonliving materials 

such as nutrients, wate·r, and soil types, and it means 

that we must examine the range or gradient of conditions in the community such as temperature, light, 

and other factors. 

After learning these basics, we must ultimately 

relate them to man and to man's impact on those 

systems. Our environmental protection and enhancement activities must include preservation of unique 

natural areas and endangered species. These activities must include conservation and management of 

our fish and wildlife resources; recreation and historic preservation and conservation must also be 

included. 

The greatest effort is in the are·a of pollutioncontrol and abatement activities, including financial 

assistance to State and local governments for pollution-control programs, regulation of pollution and 

enforcement standards, research involving control 

and abatement of pollution, and the control of pollution from Federal installations. 

Superimposed upon individual agency programs 

are national eommitments that cross agency boundaries and shape the future of our natural resources. 

One program, as discussed in the President's Budget Message for fiscal year 1975. is a comprehensive 

energy program to deal with current shortages and 

to reestablish our ability to be self-sufficient. This 

national energy program includes 

. . . reorganization of Federal administrative machinery to 

deal more effectively with short- and long-term en~rgy 

needs; stringent energy conservation measures . . . and 

allocation of petroleum products ... reporting of oil production, inventories, reserves and costs; modernization of 

regulations for railroads in order to permit energy savings; policies to accelerate development of domestic oil and 

gas reserves ... and development by private industry of 

western oil shale and offshore oil and gas de-posits; measures to permit increased use of our vast coal reserves, including environmental safeguards for surface mining, conversion of oil-fired electric power plants to coal, improvement of mining techniques and accelerated efforts to develop technology for coal gasification, coal liquefaction, advanced combustion systems, and pollution control; development of fast breeder nuclear reactors which it is hoped 

will greatly increase the amount of energy recoverable from 

our nuclear fuel resources; more timely approval of sites 

for energy facilities and accelerated construction of nuclear 

power plants; and increased research on advanced energy 

sources including fusion power, and geothermal and solar 

energy. 

I believe that several environmental problems related to this energy program need special attention 

because of their massive size and the industrial 

and urban changes associated with them. I would 

like to mention one or two of these which I consider particularly important, but this list is not all 

inclusive by any means. 

Western coal and oil-shale resources.-The proposed development of the largest coal deposit in 

the world in Colorado, Wyoming, and the Dakotas, 

as well as increased production in other sections of 

the Nation, and the development of extensive oilshale deposits have the potential for enormous 

damage to fish and wildlife resources. Prope,r attention must be applied to these resources and to 

their associated values during development of both 

coal and oil-shale resources. to prevent destruction 

and degradation of land and water resources. The 

Appalachian syndrome-the wrecking of land and 

man-must not be transmitted to the American 

West. 

Power plants.-Power-plant development is accelerating at a rapid pace. By December 1972, the 

Atomic Energy Commission had issued operating 

licenses for 29 nuclear power plants. Another 84 

nuclear power plants are either· under construction 

or under operating permit review. Nuclear and 

other forms of power development have the potential for effecting irretrievable and irreversible environmental -losses. The impact of nuclear power 

plants on our national fisheries must be evaluated. 

Impingement, entrainment, loss of juvenile fish, 

and improperly designed screens must be minimized. 

Coastal ecosystems.-The Nation's coastal areas, 

including tidal wetlands, estuaries, contiguous 

oceans, and the Great Lakes, are being altered by 

man through dredging, filling, channelization, pollution, and related actions. These fragile environments provide basic habitat requirements and food 

sources for more than 60 percent of the Nation's 

fishery resources. Coastal areas further serve as an 

important nesting, resting, and/or feeding habitat 

for a variety of animal life forms, including migratory birds, fur animals, and sea mammals, as well 

as endangered wildlife. Without proper planning and 

remedial management efforts, renewable natural resources and their environments will continue to be 

degraded significantly or may be virtually lost in 
70 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

the near future. We may not need the protein base 

of our coastal fisheries now, but our grandchildren 

may. We would be a foolish people if we continue 

to allow the desecration of our estuarine system. 

Stream alteration.-This problem, I believe, is 

particularly appropriate for discussion, because the 

Geological Survey has a long history of involvement 

in water-resource problems through its collection of 

basic information and its basic and applied research 

programs. Stream alterations, including channelization, clearing,· snagging, dams, and diversions, are 

common water-control and storage methods. The 

long-term ecological significance of such alterations 

has been largely ignored. These alterations affect the 

total ecosystem, which includes the channel proper 

and the flood plain. Flood-plain ecosystems generally are recognized as the most productive inland habitat in North America. 

As Federal, State, and local construction agencies have broadened their environmental perspectives in water use, demands for answers to fish, 

wildlife, recreation, and ecological questions have 

increased. Our capacity to respond has not kept 

pace with the need. Our ability to evaluate biological and socio-economic aspects of water-project development accurately is inadequate. It is necessary 

for various local, State, and Federal agencies to 

work together to prevent further degradation of our 

streams and rivers. 

This country is currently in a position where 

massive programs are going forward with inadequate knowledge or consideration of environmental 

consequences. We can no longer afford the luxury 

of compartmentalizing each segment of a resource 

problem so that it may fall neatly into the technical, scientific, or legal jurisdiction by law or expertise of a specific agency. It is time to look at 

the entire system, the interactions of that system's 

parts, and the required basic information for effective and efficient management of these systems. 

We are living in an age of real or supposed crises. 

The real crises of overpopulation and overconsumPtion of finite materials, of food, and of declining 

energy reserves will be with us from now on. If 

light is to penetrate the darkness, if change is 

going to occur speedily to keep us on an even keel, 

then some old dogs must learn new tricks. 

Paul Ehrlich brilliantly pointed out that it is 

not the starving have-not nations that are cre·ating such a terrible strain on the world's ecosystems. 

It is we-the inhabitants of the highly industrialized 

nations-who generate the spiraling never-ceasing 

demands that overload our systems and resources. 

He stated in a recent speech : 

We have got to end the insane growth of consumption in 

the ov.erdeveloped countries, and this can he done with a 

great increase in the quality of life. We can reduce our 

energy consumption and live better. 

We have got to stop population growth in the over-developed countries because it is the most serious population 

growth in the world, and it is starting to climb. We have 

got to convince under-developed countries that imitating the 

kind of development that we have done, say in the· United 

States, would be a lethal mistake, and hope that they will 

choose different development goals, and that in particular 

as they choose their options, they will try and take ones 

which will lead among other things to lower birth rates as 

rapidly as possible. We will never convince them to do that 

unless we change our own ways . . . and if people cannot 

change their behavior rapidly enough, then we just will 

not get the job done, and like many other species that have 

overshot the carrying capacity of their environment, we will 

pay the price." 

The American people cannot continue their accelerating growth binge. Sooner or later, even without our intervention, limiting factors will halt the 

growth. The major question is whether or not control of the growth syndrome will be the result of 

rational carefully planned human action or of chaos. 

The scientists of the Geological Survey will be 

part of the great decisions which we as the world 

leader must make. The verdict on our success 1n 

this mission has not yet been rendered. The decision is in the hands of you, the educated. You 

must prepare a constituency to face up to the 

realities of the hard choices we collectively face. 
EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

NATURAL-HAZARDS REDUCTION 

By FRANK PRESS 

Chairman, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology 

Up to this point in the symposium we have heard 

about energy and mineral resources and their development in the context of the need to conserve the 

environment. The same forces that created the hospitable and rich environment that enabled life to 

develop and civilization to progress beyond the Stone 

Age also trigger earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, 

tsunamis, and landslides and contribute to climatic 

change and destructive weather. 

The human need to understand nature in order to 

discover her material wealth and to gain protection 

from her vagaries survives to this day as the major 

motivation of earth scientists. It is fitting therefore 

to take up the question of the Nation's response to 

natural hazards at the dedication of the new capital 

of earth sciences here in Reston, Va. 

I should like to review for you some of the scientific progress of recent years and to say something of 

the response required by our public agencies to 

match the technical advances. 

To begin with, let me first document the need for 

a national program dealing with natural-hazards reduction. Some years ago, when I presented a proposal for research in earthquake prediction and 

earthquake engineering to the President's Science 

Advisory Committee, one member questioned the 

need for a major investment in research, pointing 

out that in the history of our country only a few 

hundred lives were ever lost to earthquakes and that 

the apparent loss from earthquakes in this century 

could not have averaged more than about $20 million 

per year. What was overlooked in this critique was 

the future loss potential from a reoccurrence of a 

great earthquake such as those in San Francisco in 

1906, Los Angeles in 1857, and New Madrid, Mo., in 

1811. Tens of billions of dollars and tens of thouands of casualties are the kinds of numbers that have 

been appearing in sudden-loss estimates. Catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in the past and 

will occur in the future, as any geologist would 

vouch. The new ingredient is the astronomic growth 

in population and investment in the earthquakeprone regions of our country. Some 30 million people 

now live in the 20 States that are in seismic-risk zone 

3-the most dangerous category in the seismic-risk 

map of the United States. An additional 40 million 

live in seismic-risk zone 2. The San Fernando earthquake of 1971 was a sobering experience to geologists and engineers. This relatively small tremor 

(much less than 1 percent of the energy released in 

the San Francisco quake) occurred in a densely 

populated region. The damage bill came to $500 million. Too few people know that one dam was stressed 

to near the failure point and· that a slightly larger 

shock on another day would have resulted in casualty 

figures in the tens of thousands. 

When one considers tsunamis, volcanism, hurricanes, storm surges, tornadoes, and landslides, no 

communities in our country are immune to loss from 

natural hazards. 

On the bright side is the remarkable progress that 

man has made in understanding the natural systems 

that constitute his environment. In the limited time 

available to me I will highlight our new insights concerning the Earth's internal forces, although an 

equally impressive report could be made about our 

new understanding of the atmosphere and oceans. 

The past decade has been a period of great discovery and excitement in geology. For the first time 

an all-encompassing theory-that of plate tectonics 

-ties together the large-scale geological phenomena 

of our planet. Most earthquakes and volcanoes, for 

71 
72 EARTH SCIENCE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE 

example--their location and the forces that cause 

them-can be explained in terms of the relative motions of about a dozen plates that make up the outer 

shell of the Earth. In the laboratory, rocks have been 

stressed under the conditions of high pressure and 

temperature that exist in the Earth's interior, and 

physical changes that precede rupture have been 

found and explained. In research pioneered in the 

U.S.S.R. and extended here, these same changes have 

been shown to exist in the Earth's crust prior to an 

earthquake. Volcanoes have been instrumented, and 

the progress of magma from the deep interior to the 

place of eruption has been charted. To draw an 

analogy with medical research, it is as if the etiology 

of 90 percent of cancers was understood for the first 

time. We have reached a point where prediction of 

earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and accurate 

forecasting of tsunamis and landslides are achievable 

goals. 

Rapid progress has been made in another aspect 

of hazard mitigation-the physical description of 

the hazard, mapping its geographic extent, and allowing for the response of structures to the forces 

involved. For example, more data have been accumulated on ground motion and soil response due to 

earthquakes in the past few years than in all preceding time. A whole new approach to risk analysis is 

being developed involving a physical description of 

the hazard, its probability of occurrence, and hazardresistant design alternatives, all of which raise decisionmaking from the level of guesswork to a highly 

professional act. In citing these few examples, I 

want to make the point that science and technology 

are opening the possibility of significantly reducing 

man's vulnerability to natural hazards. As exciting 

as this progress has been, the effort has been supported at below the critical level needed to achieve 

these goals, in an operational sense, in this century. 

Regardless of progress on the technical front, significant hazard mitigation cannot be achieved without a Federal policy and an organized program. For 

example, a policy decision to augment support in 

earthquake-prediction research can bring this goal to 

fruition in years rather than decades. The Government, through the many ways it influences construction-disaster insurance, impact statements, U.S. 

Army Corps of Engineers approvals, Government 

construction, subsidies, disaster relief-can mandate 

land-use and construction-engineering practice on 

the basis of the new technology. Information transfer from the research centers to the communities can 

be expedited in this way. It is an interesting yet sad 

commentary that in hazard-risk analysis both in this 

country and in the U.S.S.R., specialists have developed powerful techniques to rationalize decisionmaking in land use and construction, yet these specialists have difficulty is finding customers for their 

new technology. 

Just as natural hazards know no geographic boundaries and affect man and his culture in many ways, 

so does the Government responsibility cut across departmental lines. The Departments of Housing and 

Urban Development, Health, Education, and Welfare, Defense, Interior, and Transportation and the 

Atomic Energy Commission, Veterans Administration, and the Food and Drug Administration have 

legitimate roles to play, as do State and county governmental units. There are not many precedents for 

policymaking involving so many agencies, some of 

which are potential users of new technology, some 

developers of new technology, and some serving in 

both capacities. Then there is the matter of relative 

urgency. If a major catastrophe were to strike tomorrow, the following day would almost certainly 

see a gov~rnment-wide policy in natural-hazards 

mitigation. How does one sell preventive medicine 

for a future affliction to agencies beleaguered with 

current illnesses? 

I believe that scientists and engineers must assume a role of advocate and even special pleader 

when they perceive a sluggishness in the Government's response to some new opportunity or to 

some future danger. It is not outside of the scientific tradition for scientists to make a ·case before 

the Executive Office or to brief Congress on an important issue. Einstein did it in his famous letter 

to President Roosevelt on the possibility of an atom 

bomb. The possible stress to the environment from 

a fleet of SST's, the nongovernmental expert testimony on ABM's, the design of a national cancerresearch program, the campaign against cigarette 

smoking-these are famous examples where experts 

have reached and influenced branches of government. 

Earth scientists anticipated the energy and mineral-resource crises. They knew years ago that these 

critical shortages would trouble us, beginning with 

the last decades of the 20th century, yet they are 

liable to the criticism that they did not speak out 

loudly enough or did not reach the right pres,sure 

points to influence Government policy. 

Earth scientists have a case to make. They can 

point to housing tracts placed in fault zones or on 

unstable hillside slopes. They can cite newly built 

hospitals that collapsed when shaken by a moderate 

earthquake. They can question the policy of a de-
NATURAL-HAZARDS REDUCTION 73 

partment of the Government that spends billions in 

construction yet is unable to support research that 

would safeguard its investment. They can question 

the wisdom of budgeting less than 0.1 percent of 

the total construction investment for hazard-mitigation research. They can show how a research 

dollar invested today can yield an enormous return 

in lives saved and property preserved tomorrow. At 

a time when basic research budgets have not kept 

pace with the growth in the GNP, earth scientists 

can point up the practical value to society of their 

new comprehension of the forces that have shaped 

our planet. 

What kind of Government policy is needed to 

encourage and then to exploit progress in the technology of hazard mitigation? After we list the ingredients of such a policy, it will become clear 

where in government the responsibility should lie 

for organizing and implementing a program. 

I list some of the ingredients of a national policy: 

1. Goals for hazard prediction, with adequate research support to implement these goals; for 

example, earthquake prediction in California 

in 10 years. 

2. Goals for hazard control; for example, hurricane modification in 20 years. 

3. Regionalization of the country according to 

di,saster potential. 

4. Land-use policy according to disaster potential, 

including regulations and incentives. 

5. Research and development in antihazard engineering and risk analysis. 

6. Development of construction codes in accordance with latest research and development resuits. 

7. Use of new approaches to risk analysis in siting, 

selection of alternatives, and inv,estment decisions. 

8. Insurance, disaster relief, and reconstruction 

policies consistent with the preceding. 

9. Information-transfer and public education program. 

This list covers several disciplines and cuts across 

the responsibilities of various departments of the 

Government. Indeed, the budget for such a program 

would appear as a crosswalk table involving many 

agencies and many technologies. 

It seems clear that a disaster-mitigation program 

must receive a charter and guidelines from the 

highest levels of the Government. Management, coordination, and interdepartmental budgeting are 

essential elements, as are the involvements of stateof-the-art s.cience and technology. I believe that a 

task force, chaired by the President's science advisor, which should include senior representatives 

of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and 

the cognizant government departments, is called for. 

The coordinator must have authority, and he must 

enjoy the confidence of OMB, both of which go with 

proximity to the Executive Office. I believe a strong 

Government-wide program would receive the support 

of Congress. Does any one doubt that we would 

have a program similar to the one that I have described after the next magnitude 8 earthquake in 

a western State? Why not reduce the severity of 

future cata,strophe by organizing a national program 

now. E<arth scientists should take the lead in selling 

this ·concept and then getting on with this challenge. 

*u.s. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1974 0-585-470/49