1

 Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

 2017 Actuarial Report
2

Table of Contents

Overview of Valuation Results 3

 Single-Employer Program 

 Seriatim at FYE Method 6

 Seriatim at DOPT Method 7

 Nonseriatim Method 7

 Missing Participants Program 11

 Collins Settlement 11

Multiemployer Program 12

Actuarial Assumptions, Methods, and Procedures 14

Data Sources and Assumptions 20

Valuation Statistics 21

Reconciliation of Results 26

Statement of Actuarial Opinion 28
3

ACTUARIAL VALUATION REPORT- 2017 FISCAL YEAR 

The 2017 Annual Report of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) contains a summary 

of the results of the September 30, 2017 actuarial valuation. The purpose of this separate Actuarial 

Valuation Report is to provide greater detail concerning the valuation of future benefits than is presented 

in PBGC's Annual Report.

Overview of Valuation Results

PBGC calculated and validated the present value of future benefits (PVFB) for both the singleemployer and multiemployer programs and of nonrecoverable future financial assistance (NRFFA) under 

the multiemployer program. Generally, except for the changes in interest and mortality assumptions, we 

used the same methods and procedures as in 2016 for the Single-Employer and Multiemployer Programs. 

These calculations reflect the present value of claims as of the date of the financial statements. They 

present a snapshot of the liabilities as of a point in time and do not include liability projections over the 

period subsequent to the date of the financial statements. 

For the single-employer program, the liability as of September 30, 2017 consisted of:

(1) $108.4 billion for the 4,845 plans that have terminated; and

(2) $7,917.3 million for the five probable terminations.

Liabilities for "probable terminations" reflected reasonable estimates of the losses for plans that are likely 

to terminate in a future year. These estimated losses were based on conditions that existed as of PBGC's 

fiscal year-end. Management believes it is likely that one or more events subsequent to PBGC's fiscal 

year-end will occur, confirming the fact of the loss. In addition, the liability for reasonably possible 

terminations has been calculated and is discussed in a note to the financial statements of PBGC's 2017

Annual Report. 
4

For the multiemployer program, the liability as of September 30, 2017 consisted of: 

(1) less than $500,000 for 10 pension plans that terminated before the passage of the 

Multiemployer Pension Plan Amendments Act (MPPAA) and of which PBGC is trustee; 

(2) $2,662.0 million for estimable post-MPPAA losses due to financial assistance to 72

multiemployer pension plans that were currently receiving PBGC assistance; and 

(3) $64,621.1 million for probable estimable post-MPPAA losses due to financial assistance to

115 multiemployer pension plans that were probable to receive PBGC assistance in the 

future. 

The results of the valuation (the present value of future benefits and nonrecoverable future financial 

assistance) are presented in Table 1 and are displayed in the graphs on pages 9 and 10.
5

Table 1:

Present Value of Future Benefits and Nonrecoverable Future Financial Assistance – 2017

Number

of Plans

 Estimated

 Number of

 Participants

 (in thousands)

 Liability

 (in millions)

I. Single-Employer Program

 A. Terminated plans

 1. Seriatim at fiscal year-end (FYE) 4,287 1,005 $74,881

 2. Seriatim at DOPT, adjusted to FYE 120 171 21,325

 3. Nonseriatim1 438 192 12,077

 4. Missing Participants Program (seriatim)2-- 24 69

 Subtotal 4,845 1,392 $108,352

 B. Probable terminations (nonseriatim)3

5 113 7,917

 Total4 4,850 1,505 $116,269

II. Multiemployer Program

 A. Pre-MPPAA termination (seriatim) 10 * $**

 

 B. Post-MPPAA liability (net of plan assets)

 1. Currently receiving assistance 72 93 2,662

 2. Probable for assistance 115 1,241 64,621

 Total 197 1,334 $67,283

 

 *Fewer than 500 participants

** Less than $500,000

Notes:

1) The liability for terminated plans has been increased by $18 million for settlements.

2) The Missing Participants Program refers to a liability that PBGC assumed for unlocated participants in standard plan 

 terminations.

3) The net claims for probable plans reported in the financial statements include $139 million for not-yet-identified probable 

terminations. The assets for the probable plans, including the expected value of recoveries on employer liability and dueand-unpaid employer contributions claims, are $4,675 million. Thus, the net claims for probable terminations as reported 

in the financial statements are $7,917 million less $4,675 million, or $3,242 million.

4) The PVFB in the financial statements ($111,280 million) is net of estimated plan assets and recoveries on 

probable terminations ($4,675 million), estimated recoveries on terminated plans ($278 million), and estimated assets for 

plans pending trusteeship ($36 million), or, $116,269 million less $4,675 million less $278 million less $36 million = 

$111,280 million.
6

Single-Employer Program

PBGC calculated the single-employer program's liability for benefits for each of the terminated 

plans and for each of the plans considered to be a probable termination using one of three methods:

(1) seriatim at fiscal year-end (FYE);

(2) seriatim at date of plan termination (DOPT), adjusted to FYE; and

(3) nonseriatim.

In addition, PBGC included liabilities for incurred but not reported (IBNR) plans, for the Missing 

Participants Program, and for the Collins Settlement.

Seriatim at FYE Method

The liability for each participant's benefit was calculated separately at FYE for plans for which 

PBGC had sufficiently complete and accurate data. This was termed the seriatim at FYE method. PBGC 

selected plans to be valued using the seriatim at FYE method according to two criteria:

(1) completeness - whether PBGC’s computer system contained enough of the plan’s 

participant records and whether enough of those records had been finalized; and

(2) accuracy - whether the participant's record contained enough of the critical elements of 

data that were necessary to perform an actuarial valuation. 

For this valuation, these criteria were met by 4,287 pension plans (88% of the single-employer 

plans) representing $74,881 million (64%) in liabilities and about 1,005,000 (67%) participants. This was 

an increase of 28 plans over the 4,259 plans valued seriatim at September 30, 2016.

The critical error rates for 529 plans or 12.3% of the seriatim plans (lower percentage than last 

year) exceeded 5%. The overall error rate for the group of 4,287 seriatim plans was 1.1%, which is 

lower than last year. A data error is considered critical if the value of the data element in error has a 

major impact on the liability associated with a benefit record.
7

Seriatim at DOPT Method

There were 120 plans for which a final seriatim valuation as of date of plan termination (DOPT) 

had been completed, but the Office of Benefit Administration of PBGC had not finished processing the

case as of year-end (e.g., participant data had not been fully loaded into PBGC's computer database, or 

the data lacked too many critical elements to be valued by the seriatim at FYE method). When PBGC 

benefit calculations were finalized but not ready for seriatim valuation as of fiscal year-end, PBGC valued 

the plan's liability seriatim as of the plan's termination date and brought the total amounts forward to

September 30, 2017 using the nonseriatim method outlined below. Because PBGC had finalized and 

valued these benefits for each participant and valued them using PBGC assumptions and regulations as 

of each plan's date of termination, these amounts are more accurate than similar calculations for plans 

whose benefits are not final.

Nonseriatim Method

If calculations of benefits provided by PBGC were not final, PBGC based the liability calculations 

on the plan's most recent actuarial valuation performed before the termination date that is available to 

PBGC. For the 438 terminated plans valued nonseriatim, PBGC obtained the liability for each plan as of 

the most recent available actuarial valuation date for each category of participant: retired, active, and

terminated vested. These liabilities were adjusted to reflect such factors as:

(1) benefits accrued between the valuation and plan termination dates;

(2) differences between the interest rates assumed by the plans' actuaries and those assumed 

by PBGC;

(3) differences between the mortality, retirement age, and expense assumptions used by the 

plans' actuaries and those used by PBGC; and
8

(4) the effect on the liability of time elapsed between the valuation date and September 30, 

2017.

PBGC based the adjustment factors used in the nonseriatim procedure on its experience in routinely 

estimating the liability for benefits for administrative purposes. 

For each of the five probable terminations, PBGC calculated the liability as of September 30, 

2017 using the nonseriatim method with an assumed date of plan termination.
9

Distribution of FYE17 Single-Employer Liability by 

Method of Calculation

Liability for Benefits: $116,269

(Dollars in Millions)

*Seriatim at FYE includes the Missing Participants Program

**Nonseriatim includes Probable terminations 

64.5%

18.3%

17.2%

Seriatim at FYE: $74,950*

Seriatim at DOPT Adjusted to FYE: $21,325

Nonseriatim: $19,994**
10

Distribution of FYE17 Single-Employer Plans by

Method of Calculation

 Total Plans: 4,850

*Nonseriatim includes Probable terminations 

88.4%

2.5%

9.1%

Seriatim at FYE: 4,287

Seriatim at DOPT Adjusted to FYE: 120

Nonseriatim: 443*
11

Missing Participants Program

The Missing Participants Program refers to a responsibility that PBGC has assumed under the 

Retirement Protection Act of 1994 to act as a clearinghouse for unlocated participants in standard plan 

terminations. As with other parts of PVFB, only the liabilities are shown here. Because plan 

administrators have transferred a corresponding asset amount to PBGC, the net increase in liabilities of 

PBGC due to this program, if any, will be negligible. As of September 30, 2017, changes to this program 

due to the Pension Protection Act of 2006 had not yet been implemented. Subsequent to the completion 

of these results, effective January 22, 2018, PBGC published final regulations to implement the 

provisions of this law expanding the program to cover defined contribution plans, multiemployer pension 

plans, and small professional service employer plans not covered by title IV of ERISA. Accordingly, 

future actuarial reports will incorporate the impact of this law. 

Collins Settlement

The Collins Settlement refers to the liability for benefits that PBGC incurred as a result of the 

settlement of a class action lawsuit during fiscal year 1996. This settlement provides benefits for 

participants in plans which terminated between January 1, 1976 and December 31, 1981 without having 

been amended to conform to ERISA’s vesting requirements. The remaining liability under this settlement 

is included in the nonseriatim portion of the liability.
12

Multiemployer Program

There was a total of ten pre-MPPAA terminations, nine of which were granted discretionary 

coverage under the provisions of ERISA as passed in 1974. The remaining plan terminated when 

coverage under Title IV was mandatory (from August 1, 1980 until September 25, 1980). PBGC 

calculated the liability for these ten terminations under the seriatim at FYE method using the same 

assumptions as for the single-employer program.

The post-MPPAA portion of the liability represented the present value, as of September 30, 2017, 

of net losses that PBGC expected to incur from non-recoverable future financial assistance to 187 pension 

plans of which 72 were insolvent (i.e., currently receiving PBGC financial assistance) and 115 were 

expected to become insolvent. The liability for each plan was calculated (using the cash flow method) as 

the present value of future guaranteed benefit and expense payments, net of the present value of future 

employer contributions and withdrawal liability payments. This liability was determined as of the later 

of September 30, 2017 and the actual or projected date of insolvency, and then discounted back to 

September 30, 2017 using interest only. The most recent available actuarial reports and information 

provided by representatives of the affected plans served as the basis for the valuations.

Projected benefit payments were estimated based on liabilities, current benefit payments and 

estimated average ages for actives, terminated vesteds and retirees from the most recent actuarial reports, 

combined with assumptions of retirement ages and of future rates of mortality and termination. Projected 

expense payments were estimated as a constant percentage of the projected benefit payments; this 

percentage is equal to the ratio of current expense payments to current benefit payments. The projected 

date of insolvency was then established using a cashflow model with initial assets, expense payments, 

contributions, and projected benefit and withdrawal liability payments as inputs, estimated when 

necessary.
13

The post-MPPAA liability of $67,283 million as of September 30, 2017 is about $6,274 million 

higher than it was a year earlier. The main reasons for the increase in liabilities was due to the addition 

of 22 new plans to the multiemployer inventory.
14

Actuarial Assumptions, Methods, and Procedures

PBGC continues to review the actuarial assumptions used in the valuation to assure that they 

remain consistent with current market conditions in the insurance industry and with PBGC's experience. 

The actuarial assumptions, which are used in both the single-employer and multiemployer valuations, 

are presented in Table 2A. Assumptions concerning data that were not available are discussed in the data 

section of this report. 

Beginning with the March 31, 2017 valuation, PBGC used forward yield curve interest factors 

which were derived from a recalibration based on the prices from the two most recent ACLI surveys 

(March 31, 2017 and June 30, 2017) to value PBGC’s liabilities. The interest factors so determined for 

the September 30, 2017 valuation vary annually from 1.54% in year 1 to 2.44% in year 31 and beyond. 

For the September 30, 2016 valuation the select and ultimate interest factors were 2.27% for the first 20

years after the valuation date and 2.14% thereafter. These interest factors are dependent upon PBGC’s 

mortality assumption.

Beginning with the June 30, 2016 valuation, PBGC updated the mortality assumptions by 

adopting the recommendations from a study by an independent consulting firm. The study recommended 

that, when conducting valuations for its financial statements, PBGC use the RP-2014 Healthy Male Table 

times 1.09 and Healthy Female Table times 0.99. The study also recommended that continuing mortality 

improvements be taken into account by using Projection Scale MP-2015 or the latest projection scale to 

project these tables a fixed number of years. Until PBGC was able to implement fully generational 

mortality assumptions, the study recommended that at each valuation date the fixed number of years 

would be determined as the sum of the elapsed time from the date of the table (2014) to the valuation 

date, plus the period of time from the valuation date to the average date of payment of future benefits 

(the duration). Beginning with the June 30, 2017 valuation, PBGC systems were able to use fully 

generational mortality tables. PBGC used the adjusted RP-2014 Healthy Male and Female Mortality 

tables each projected generationally using scale MP-2016 for the September 30, 2017 valuation.
15

The mortality tables used for healthy lives in the FY 2016 valuation are the adjusted RP-2014 Healthy 

Male and Female Mortality Tables, each projected 15 years to 2029 using Scale MP-2015. The 15-year

projection was determined as the sum of the 2 years from 2014 to 2016 and the 13-year duration of the 

September 30, 2015 liabilities.

Retirement age assumptions were not changed.

The SPARR (Small Plan Average Recovery Ratio) assumptions as shown in Table 2B were 

updated to reflect the SPARR calculated in FY2017. The FY2017 SPARR of 6.92% is used for the 

September 30, 2017 valuation.

PBGC used the same explicit loading factors as used since FY2007 for expenses in all 

terminated plans and single-employer probable terminations. The reserve for expenses was assumed to 

be 1.37% of the liability for benefits plus additional reserves for cases whose plan asset determinations, 

participant database audits, and actuarial valuations were not yet complete. The factors to determine the 

additional reserves were based on case sizes (large/small), number of participants, and time since 

trusteeship. The factors used in the expense reserve formula are shown in Table 2C.

During the 2017 fiscal year, PBGC improved the system that calculates the liabilities to address 

some of the valuation audit findings surrounding the valuation systems. In this year we have made 

improvements to our ability to value liabilities with fully generational mortality, value Joint and Survivor 

Popup annuity forms, improved the accuracy of QPSA calculations, included beneficiary ages 0 through 

14 in valuing annuities, as well as increased and improved the reports available for the analysis of our 

results. 

We continue our ongoing efforts to improve the quality of the seriatim data and, as in other years, 

made various changes to generally improve the accuracy, speed, security and auditability of the 

calculations as well as integrate with the evolving PBGC technologies.
16

Table 2A

Actuarial Valuation Assumptions

Previous 

Valuation as of 

9/30/16

Current Valuation 

as of 9/30/17

Interest 

Factors

Select & Ultimate:

2.27% for 20 years, 

2.14% thereafter

Forward Yield Curve:

Period Rate Period Rate Period Rate Period Rate

1 1.54% 11 2.73% 21 2.41% 31 2.44%

2 1.69% 12 2.64% 22 2.39% 32 2.44%

3 2.07% 13 2.55% 23 2.16% 33 2.44%

4 2.45% 14 2.51% 24 1.84% 34 2.44%

5 2.62% 15 2.53% 25 1.83% 35 2.44%

6 2.79% 16 2.56% 26 2.04% 36 2.44%

7 2.92% 17 2.63% 27 2.07% 37 2.44%

8 2.93% 18 2.76% 28 2.02% 38 2.44%

9 2.87% 19 2.95% 29 2.12% 39 2.44%

10 2.84% 20 3.16% 30 2.53% 40 2.44%
17

Table 2A

Actuarial Valuation Assumptions

 

 

Previous Valuation as of 9/30/16 Current Valuation as of 9/30/17

Mortality 

 Healthy Lives 

Disabled Lives 

Eligible for Social 

Security (SS) 

Disability Benefits

Disabled Lives Not 

Eligible for SS 

Disability Benefits

RP-2014 Healthy Male Table times 1.09 and 

RP-2014 Healthy Female Mortality Table times 

0.99, each projected 15 years to 2029 using 

Scale MP-2015.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables as 

described above, set forward 7 years for male 

lives and 8 years for female lives.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables as 

described above, set forward 5 years for male 

lives and 7 years for female lives.

RP-2014 Healthy Male Table times 1.09 and 

RP-2014 Healthy Female Mortality Table 

times 0.99, each projected generationally 

using Scale MP-2016.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables 

as described above, set forward 7 years for 

male lives and 8 years for female lives.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables 

as described above, set forward 5 years for 

male lives and 7 years for female lives.

SPARR Calculated SPARR through fiscal year ending 

9/30/16.

Calculated SPARR through current fiscal 

year ending 9/30/17.

See Table 2B for values and notes.

Retirement Ages (a) Earliest possible for shutdown companies.

(b) Expected retirement age (XRA) tables from 29

 CFR 4044 for ongoing companies.

(c) Deferred participants past XRA are assumed to

 be in pay status, retroactive to their XRA.

 To reflect lower likelihood of payment:

(d) Unlocated deferred participants past age 65 are 

 phased out over 3 years.

(e) Located deferred participants are fully phased

 out past age 70.

(f) Deferred participants in the Missing Participants

 Program are phased out over 10 years past age 70.

Same 

Expenses All terminated plans and single-employer probable 

terminations:

1.37% of the liability for benefits

 plus 

Additional reserves as shown in Table 2C for cases 

where plan asset determinations, participant database 

audits and actuarial valuations were not complete.

Same
18

Table 2B

Small Plan Average Recovery Ratio (SPARR) Assumptions

The SPARR is used in the calculation of the liability for benefits determined under section 4022(c) of ERISA, 

which provides participants with a portion of PBGC’s recoveries. The SPARR has been determined by PBGC for 

terminations initiated in a given fiscal year based on actual recoveries and unfunded benefit liabilities for plan 

terminations initiated during a five year averaging period. As of the end of fiscal year 2017, the SPARR had been 

calculated for plan terminations initiated in fiscal years 1991-2017. The FY 2017 SPARR is assumed for probable 

plans affected by future SPARRs. 

Fiscal Year SPARR Fiscal Year SPARR

1991 12.01% 2005 4.39%

1992 7.73%

10/1/05 – 9/15/06 4.13%

9/16/06-9/30/06 3.50%

1993 7.44% 2007 4.35%

1994 7.04% 2008 4.26%

1995 7.22% 2009 3.85%

1996 7.90% 2010 9.15%

1997 5.98% 2011 12.30%

1998 6.84% 2012 12.56%

1999 8.01% 2013 17.23%

2000 4.58% 2014 4.93%

2001 4.94% 2015 9.29%

2002 9.60% 2016 9.39%

2003 7.86% 2017 6.92%

2004 3.42%
19

Table 2C

 Reserve Factors for Expenses

Large Plans (more than 100 participants)

Plan Asset

Determinations

Participant

Database Actuarial Valuation

Interim 

Benefits

Administration

Years

Since

Trusteeship

Per Large

Plan

Per Large

Plan

Per Large

Plan

Per Participant 

for the First 100

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the Next 400

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the 

Remaining

Participants

in Plan

Per

Participant

0<=y<1 $23,020 $78,290 $118,640 $1,130 $370 $15 $330 

1<=y<2 15,270 48,470 69,450 660 220 10 190

2<=y<3 12,050 35,970 40,380 380 130 5 110

3<=y 8,570 33,130 31,730 300 100 5 90

Small Plans (100 or fewer participants)

Plan Asset

Determinations

Participant

Database Actuarial Valuation

Interim 

Benefits

Administration

Years

Since

Trusteeship

Per Small

Plan

Per Small

Plan

Per Small

Plan

Per Participant 

for the First 100

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the Next 400

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the 

Remaining

Participants

in Plan

Per

Participant

0<=y<1 $11,500 $21,470 $118,640 $1,130 N/A N/A $330 

1<=y<2 7,320 18,060 69,450 660 N/A N/A 190

2<=y<3 5,550 15,130 40,380 380 N/A N/A 110

3<=y 5,040 11,430 31,730 300 N/A N/A 90

In addition to the reserve factors shown, an expense reserve equal to 1.37% of the liability for benefits 

applies to both Large Plans and Small Plans. 
20

Data Sources and Assumptions

The seriatim portion of this valuation was based on participant data maintained by PBGC’s Office 

of Benefits Administration. For the seriatim liability, benefit amounts have been determined for each 

participant using plan documents, together with ERISA and PBGC regulations relating to guaranteed 

benefits and the allocation of assets. If specific data were not available for deferred vested participants 

under the seriatim method, participants were assumed to be married and to elect the qualified Joint and 

Survivor (J&S) benefit; wives were assumed to be four years younger than their husbands. When certain 

other data elements for a participant were missing, they were replaced by the average for the plan. When 

the plan average was not available, the average for all plans valued seriatim was used. 

The nonseriatim liability was based on the plan's most recent actuarial valuation performed before 

the termination date that is available to PBGC. The valuation information generally was obtained from 

actuarial reports or Schedule SB or MB filings. For nonseriatim plans and probable terminations, 

provision generally has been made to reduce benefits to guaranteed levels. Attained ages for active 

participants, terminated vested participants, and retired participants were assumed to be ages 53, 53 and 

69 respectively for new nonseriatim plans when plan data were unavailable. For post-MPPAA 

multiemployer plans, the assumed ages are 55, 56 and 65, respectively. 
21

Valuation Statistics

The FY 2017 valuation for the single-employer program included approximately 1,392,000 

participants owed future payments in terminated plans as of September 30, 2017 and approximately 

113,000 participants in plans that will probably terminate. For the multiemployer program, the FY 2017

valuation included, as of September 30, 2017, 36 participants in terminated pre-MPPAA plans and 

approximately 93,000 participants in post-MPPAA plans currently receiving financial assistance and 

1,241,000 participants in post-MPPAA plans expected to receive financial assistance. Of these, about 

839,000 participants from terminated single-employer plans and 26 participants from terminated 

multiemployer plans were receiving benefits from PBGC at fiscal year-end.

The average monthly benefit paid by PBGC for participants in pay status during FY 2017 was 

$557 (including supplemental benefits) for the single-employer program and $105 for the multiemployer 

program in the ten pre-MPPAA plans. 

Tables 3 through 6 summarize the detailed results of the seriatim and nonseriatim valuations for 

both the single-employer and multiemployer programs.
22

Table 3:

Liability for Pay-Status Recipients in "Seriatim at FYE" Method

 Single-Employer Multiemployer

 Age

Number of

Benefit

Recipients**

Average

Monthly

Benefit

Average

Supplemental

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of

Liability

 

Number of 

Benefit 

Recipients

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of 

Liability

Under 50 1,691 $109 $298 $70*% 0 - $0 0% 

50-54 2,280 296 270 195 *% 0 - 0 0 

55-59 17,290 326 161 1,468 3% 0 - 0

 

 0 

60-64 62,426 410 182 5,838 11% 0 - 0 0 

65-69 133,714 494 362 12,901 25% 0 - 0

 

 0 

70-74 150,505 538 339 13,437 26% 0 - 0

 

 0

 

75-79 124,603 582 357 9,562 18% 0 - 0

 

0%

80-84 93,192 558 180 5,269 10% 2 100 *

 

16%

85-89 63,576 479 109 2,285 4% 7 106*

 

35%

Over 89 40,526 374 179 778 2% 17 105 *

 

49%

TOTAL 689,803 $506 $223 $51,803 100% 26 $105 $0 100%

* Less than 0.5% or less than $500,000

** Approximately 1% of participants are receiving supplemental benefits.

Note: The liability in this table does not include the liability for the Missing Participants Program.

Table 4:

Liability for Deferred Participants in "Seriatim at FYE" Method

 Single-Employer Multiemployer 

 Age

Number of Benefit 

Recipients**

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Average 

Supplemental 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions) 

Percent of 

Liability

Number of 

Benefit 

Recipients

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of 

Liability

Under 40 943 $183 $0 $25 0% 0 - $0  0%

40-44 7,790 195 57 246 1% 0 - 0 0 

45-49 24,595 246 93 1,143 5% 0 - 0 0 

50-54 56,029 326 135 4,009 17% 0 - 0 0 

55-59 75,279 389 162 7,395 32% 0 - 0 0 

60-64 68,718 403 155 7,891 34% 0 - 0 0

Over 64 19,861 315 120 1,897 8% 0 - 0 0 

Other***

61,982 - - - - 472 2% 10 - * 100% 

TOTAL 315,197 $352 $140 $23,078 100% 10 - $* 100%

* Less than 0.5% or less than $500,000 

** Less than 1% of participants (not including others) will receive supplemental benefits.

*** "Other" includes unlocatable participants and participants scheduled at year end for lump sum payments.

 Note: The liability in this table does not include the liability for the Missing Participants Program.
23

 Table 5:

Seriatim at DOPT and Nonseriatim Liability

Plans with Final DOPT Benefits

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 42 $21,093 51.2%

B. Other 78 $232 0.6% 

Subtotal 120 $21,325 51.8%

Plans with Non-Final DOPT Benefits

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 136 $11,294 27.4%

B. Other 302 $765 1.9% 

Subtotal 438 $12,059 29.3%

Probable Plans

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 5 $7,778 18.9%

B. Other 0 $0 0.0% 

Subtotal 5 $7,778 18.9%

Total 563 $41,162 100.0%

Notes:

1) Final DOPT benefits refer to those benefits that PBGC has determined and valued seriatim as of DOPT for 

the plan. Non-Final DOPT benefits are estimates of these final DOPT benefits.

2) Large Plans in this table are those whose present value of Title IV benefits at DOPT equals or exceeds $10 

million. 

3) The liability shown in this table does not include the liability for settlements.

4) The liability for Probable plans is shown as a gross amount (i.e., plan assets and collections on employer 

liabilities are not subtracted from the liability for benefits). Also, the numbers in this table do not include 

the liability for not yet identified probable terminations.
24

Table 6A:

Distribution of Single-Employer Liability (including 4022(c)) by Trusteeship Status, Recipient Status, 

and Valuation Method 

(Dollars in millions)

Recipient Status

Seriatim/

Missing

Participants

Nonseriatim/

Collins

Total 

Terminated

Liability

Probables/

IBNR

Total 

Liability

Percent

of Total

Liability

Receiving Payments

Trusteed $51,802

 

 

 $15,950 $67,752 $0 $67,752 58.3%

Pending Trusteeship 3 38 41 5,202 5,243 4.5%

Total $51,805 $15,988 $67,793 $5,202 $72,995 62.8%

Not Receiving Payments

Trusteed $23,145 $17,355 $40,500 $0 $40,500 34.8%

Pending Trusteeship 0 59 59 2,715 2,774 2.4%

Total $23,145 $17,414 $40,559 $2,715 $43,274 37.2%

All Payment Statuses

Trusteed

$74,947 $33,305 $108,252 $0 $108,252 93.1%

Pending Trusteeship 3 97 100 7,917 8,017 6.9%

Total $74,950 $33,402 $108,352 $7,917 $116,269 100.0%

Percent of Terminated 69.2% 30.8% 100.0%

Percent of Total 64.5% 28.7% 93.2% 6.8% 100%

Notes:

1) Recipient status for Seriatim, Missing Participants, IBNR and Collins liabilities refers to status as of 9/30/17. For 

Nonseriatim and Probable liabilities, recipient status refers to the status as of the most recent actuarial valuation 

report (date of plan termination if benefits are "final"). The term "final" is defined in the notes to Table 5.

2) The Probable liabilities are shown as gross amounts (i.e., plan assets and collections on employer liabilities are not

subtracted from the liability for benefits).
25

Table 6B:

Distribution of Single Employer Participants (including 4022(c)) by Trusteeship Status, Recipient Status, 

and Valuation Method

(Participants in thousands)

Recipient Status

Seriatim/

Missing

Participants Nonseriatim

Total 

Terminated

Participants Probables

Total 

Participants

 Percent

 of Total 

Participants *

Receiving Payments

Trusteed 690 144 834 0 834 55.4%

Pending Trusteeship 0 1 1 68 69 4.6%

Total 690 145 835 68 903 60.0%

Not Receiving Payments

Trusteed 339 217 556 0 556 36.9%

Pending Trusteeship 0 1 1 45 46 3.1%

Total 339 218 557 45 602 40.0%

All Payment Statuses

Trusteed 1,029 361 1,390 0 1,390 92.4%

Pending Trusteeship 0 2 2 113 115 7.6%

Total 1,029 363 1,392 113 1,505 100.0%

Percent of Terminated 73.9% 26.1% 100.0%

Percent of Total 68.4% 24.1% 92.5% 7.5% 100%

Notes:

1) Recipient status for Seriatim and Missing Participants liabilities refers to status as of 9/30/17. For 

Nonseriatim and Probable liabilities, recipient status refers to the status as of the most recent actuarial 

valuation report (date of plan termination if benefits are "final"). The term "final" is defined in the notes to 

Table 5.

2) Participant counts for IBNR and Collins are not included.

* may not add due to rounding
26

Reconciliation of Results

Table 7 reconciles the September 30, 2017 valuation with the September 30, 2016 valuation. It 

shows that the $1,441 million increase in the liability for the Single-Employer program was the net effect 

of:

 (1) increased liability for probable plans = $7,264 million

 (2) new plan terminations as of the beginning of the year = $992 million

(3) expected interest on liability = $2,532 million

(4) decreased liability from change in interest factors = ($2,183) million

(5) change in mortality assumptions = ($611) million

(6) actual benefit payments = ($5,699) million

(7) other changes = ($854) million.

The Multiemployer columns reconcile the liability for the post-MPPAA financial assistance to 

insolvent plans. The liability for the pre-MPPAA terminated plans in FY17 is less than $500,000.
27

Table 7:

Reconciliation of the Present Value of Future Benefits (dollars in millions)

Total Single

Employer

Post-MPPAA

Multiemployer

1. Liability at BOY (9/30/16)

(a) Present Value of Future Benefits for all Plans

(b) Liability for Probable Plans (gross liability including unreported)

(c) Liability for Unreported Terminated Plans and other settlements

(d) 9/30/16 Liability for Terminated Plans (a + b + c)

$114,829

(653)

(21)

$114,155

$61,009 

(58,870)

0

$2,139

2. Change in Valuation Software

(a) Effect on Liability as of DOPT

(b) Projection of (a) from DOPT to BOY + post-DOPT changes

(c) Total (a + b)

 $0

 (8)

 ($8)

$0

0

 $0

3. Net New Plans and Missing Participant Liability

(a) New Missing Participant Liability

(b) New Termination Inventory as of DOPT

(c) Deletions as of DOPT

(d) Projection of (b + c) from DOPT to BOY

(e) Total (a + b + c + d)

$5

934

0

58

$997

$0

773

0

0

$773

4. Nonseriatim Data Changes and Effect of DOPT Seriatim Valuation

(a) Effect on Liability at DOPT

(b) Projection of (a) from DOPT to BOY

(c) Total (a + b)

($23) 

(146) 

($169)

($84)

0

($84)

5. Actuarial Charges/Credits

(a) Expected Interest

(b) Change in Interest Factors (from 2.27% for 20 years; 2.14% thereafter to 

1.54% in year 1 to 2.44% in year 31 and beyond)

(c) Change in Mortality Assumption

(d) Change in Method (Current Year: Seriatim at DOPT to Seriatim at FYE)

(e) Effect of Experience*

(f) Change in Other Assumptions (Expense, SPARR, PBGCC STD Rates)

(g) Total (a + b + c + d + e +f)

$2,532

(2,183)

(611)

 16

(578)

0

($824)

$62

(45)

(33)

0

(7)

0

($23)

6. Expected Expense Payments ($117) $0

7. Actual Benefit Payments ($5,699) ($143)

8. Liabilities at End of Period (9/30/17)

(a) Liability for all Terminated Plans 

= (1d) + (2c) + (3e) + (4c) + (5g) + (6) + (7)

(b) Liability for Unreported Terminated Plans and other settlements

(c) Liability for all Terminated Plans (a + b)

(d) Liability for Probable Plans (gross liability including unreported) **

(e) 9/30/17 Present Value of Future Benefits for all Plans (c + d)

$108,335

18

108,353

7,917

$116,270

$2,662

0

2,662

64,621

$67,283

* Includes change from expected benefits ($5,997.6 million) to actual benefits ($5,698.9 million) in Total Single Employer.

Includes change from expected benefits ($150.3 million) to actual benefits ($142.9 million) in Post-MPPAA 

Multiemployer. Actual does not include payments made by employers.

** Includes $139.5 million for not yet identified probable terminations. Financial statements show a liability of $7,917.3

million for probable terminations, less assets of $4,675.0 million, for a net claim of $3,242.3 million.
28

Statement of Actuarial Opinion

This valuation has been prepared in accordance with generally accepted actuarial principles 

and practices and, to the best of my knowledge, fairly reflects the actuarial present value of the 

Corporation's liabilities for the single-employer and multiemployer plan insurance programs as of 

September 30, 2017.

In preparing this valuation, I have relied upon information provided to me regarding plan 

provisions, plan participants, plan assets, and other matters.

In my opinion, (1) the techniques and methodology used for valuing these liabilities are 

generally acceptable within the actuarial profession; (2) the assumptions used are appropriate for 

the purposes of this statement and are individually my best estimate of expected future experience,

discounted using current settlement rates from insurance companies as determined by PBGC’s 

Policy Research and Analysis Department; and (3) the resulting total liability represents my best 

estimate of anticipated experience under these programs.

I, Scott G. Young, am the Chief Valuation Actuary of PBGC. I am a Member of the 

American Academy of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and an Enrolled Actuary. 

I meet the Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render the actuarial 

opinion contained in this report.

Scott G. Young

Scott G. Young, FSA, EA, MAAA

Fellow of the Society of Actuaries

Enrolled Actuary

Member of the American Academy of Actuaries

Chief Valuation Actuary and Department Director

Actuarial Services and Technology Department

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

June 2018