1

 Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

 2016 Actuarial Report
2

Table of Contents

Overview of Valuation Results 3

 Single-Employer Program 

 Seriatim at FYE Method 6

 Seriatim at DOPT Method 7

 Nonseriatim Method 7

 Missing Participants Program 11

 Collins Settlement 11

Multiemployer Program 12

Actuarial Assumptions, Methods, and Procedures 14

Data Sources and Assumptions 19

Valuation Statistics 20

Reconciliation of Results 25

Statement of Actuarial Opinion 27
3

ACTUARIAL VALUATION REPORT- 2016 FISCAL YEAR 

The 2016 Annual Report of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) contains a summary 

of the results of the September 30, 2016 actuarial valuation. The purpose of this separate Actuarial 

Valuation Report is to provide greater detail concerning the valuation of future benefits than is presented 

in PBGC's Annual Report.

Overview of Valuation Results

PBGC calculated and validated the present value of future benefits (PVFB) for both the singleemployer and multiemployer programs and of nonrecoverable future financial assistance (NRFFA) under 

the multiemployer program. Generally, we used the same methods and procedures as in 2015 for the 

Single-Employer and Multiemployer Programs. These calculations reflect the present value of claims as 

of the date of the financial statements. They present a snapshot of the liabilities as of a point in time and 

do not include liability projections over the period subsequent to the date of the financial statements. 

For the single-employer program, the liability as of September 30, 2016 consisted of:

(1) $114.2 billion for the 4,769 plans that have terminated; and

(2) $653.2 million for the three probable terminations.

Liabilities for "probable terminations" reflected reasonable estimates of the losses for plans that are likely 

to terminate in a future year. These estimated losses were based on conditions that existed as of PBGC's 

fiscal year-end. Management believes it is likely that one or more events subsequent to PBGC's fiscal 

year-end will occur, confirming the fact of the loss. In addition, the liability for reasonably possible 

terminations has been calculated and is discussed in a note to the financial statements of PBGC's 2016

Annual Report. 
4

For the multiemployer program, the liability as of September 30, 2016 consisted of: 

(1) less than $500,000 for 10 pension plans that terminated before the passage of the 

Multiemployer Pension Plan Amendments Act (MPPAA) and of which PBGC is trustee; 

(2) $2,139 million for estimable post-MPPAA losses due to financial assistance to 65

multiemployer pension plans that were currently receiving PBGC assistance; and 

(3) $58,870 million for probable estimable post-MPPAA losses due to financial assistance to

103 multiemployer pension plans that were probable to receive PBGC assistance in the 

future. 

The results of the valuation (the present value of future benefits and nonrecoverable future financial 

assistance) are presented in Table 1 and are displayed in the graphs on pages 9 and 10.
5

Table 1:

Present Value of Future Benefits and Nonrecoverable Future Financial Assistance – 2016

Number

of Plans

 Estimated

 Number of

 Participants

 (in thousands)

 Liability

 (in millions)

I. Single-Employer Program

 A. Terminated plans

 1. Seriatim at fiscal year-end (FYE) 4,259 1,022 $78,966

 2. Seriatim at DOPT, adjusted to FYE 81 161 22,601

 3. Nonseriatim1 429 192 12,542

 4. Missing Participants Program (seriatim)2-- 24 67

 Subtotal 4,769 1,399 $114,176

 B. Probable terminations (nonseriatim)3

3 4 653

 Total4 4,772 1,403 $114,829

II. Multiemployer Program

 A. Pre-MPPAA termination (seriatim) 10 * $**

 

 B. Post-MPPAA liability (net of plan assets)

 1. Currently receiving assistance 65 86 2,139

 2. Probable for assistance 103 1,078 58,870

 Total 178 1,164 $61,009

 

 *Fewer than 500 participants

** Less than $500,000

Notes:

1) The liability for terminated plans has been increased by $21 million for settlements.

2) The Missing Participants Program refers to a liability that PBGC assumed for unlocated participants in standard plan 

 terminations.

3) The net claims for probable plans reported in the financial statements include $127 million for not-yet-identified probable 

terminations. The assets for the probable plans, including the expected value of recoveries on employer liability and dueand-unpaid employer contributions claims, are $277 million. Thus, the net claims for probable terminations as reported in 

the financial statements are $653 million less $277 million, or $376 million.

4) The PVFB in the financial statements ($113,704 million) is net of estimated plan assets and recoveries on 

probable terminations ($277 million), estimated recoveries on terminated plans ($569 million), and estimated assets for 

plans pending trusteeship ($279 million), or, $114,829 million less $277 million less $569 million less $279 million = 

$113,704 million.
6

Single-Employer Program

PBGC calculated the single-employer program's liability for benefits for each of the terminated 

plans and for each of the plans considered to be a probable termination using one of three methods:

(1) seriatim at fiscal year-end (FYE);

(2) seriatim at date of plan termination (DOPT), adjusted to FYE; and

(3) nonseriatim.

In addition, PBGC included liabilities for incurred but not reported (IBNR) plans, for the Missing 

Participants Program, and for the Collins Settlement.

Seriatim at FYE Method

The liability for each participant's benefit was calculated separately at FYE for plans for which 

PBGC had sufficiently complete and accurate data. This was termed the seriatim at FYE method. PBGC 

selected plans to be valued using the seriatim at FYE method according to two criteria:

(1) completeness - whether PBGC’s computer system contained enough of the plan’s 

participant records and whether enough of those records had been finalized; and

(2) accuracy - whether the participant's record contained enough of the critical elements of 

data that were necessary to perform an actuarial valuation. 

For this valuation, these criteria were met by 4,259 pension plans (89% of the single-employer 

plans) representing $78,966 million (69%) in liabilities and about 1,022,000 (73%) participants. This was 

an increase of 37 plans over the 4,222 plans valued seriatim at September 30, 2015.

The critical error rates for 527 plans or 12.4% of the seriatim plans (lower percentage than last 

year) exceeded 5%. The overall error rate for the group of 4,259 seriatim plans was 1.3%, which is 

lower than last year. A data error is considered critical if the value of the data element in error has a 

major impact on the liability associated with a benefit record.
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Seriatim at DOPT Method

There were 81 plans for which a final seriatim valuation as of date of plan termination (DOPT) 

had been completed, but the Office of Benefit Administration of PBGC had not finished processing the 

case as of year-end (e.g., participant data had not been fully loaded into PBGC's computer database, or 

the data lacked too many critical elements to be valued by the seriatim at FYE method). When PBGC 

benefit calculations were finalized but not ready for seriatim valuation as of fiscal year-end, PBGC valued 

the plan's liability seriatim as of the plan's termination date and brought the total amounts forward to

September 30, 2016 using the nonseriatim method outlined below. Because PBGC had finalized and 

valued these benefits for each participant and valued them using PBGC assumptions and regulations as 

of each plan's date of termination, these amounts are more accurate than similar calculations for plans 

whose benefits are not final.

Nonseriatim Method

If calculations of benefits provided by PBGC were not final, PBGC based the liability calculations 

on the plan's most recent actuarial valuation performed before the termination date that is available to 

PBGC. For the 429 terminated plans valued nonseriatim, PBGC obtained the liability for each plan as of 

the most recent available actuarial valuation date for each category of participant: retired, active, and

terminated vested. These liabilities were adjusted to reflect such factors as:

(1) benefits accrued between the valuation and plan termination dates;

(2) differences between the interest rates assumed by the plans' actuaries and those assumed 

by PBGC;

(3) differences between the mortality, retirement age, and expense assumptions used by the 

plans' actuaries and those used by PBGC; and
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(4) the effect on the liability of time elapsed between the valuation date and September 30, 

2016.

PBGC based the adjustment factors used in the nonseriatim procedure on its experience in routinely 

estimating the liability for benefits for administrative purposes. 

For each of the three probable terminations, PBGC calculated the liability as of September 30, 

2016 using the nonseriatim method with an assumed date of plan termination.
9

Distribution of FYE16 Single-Employer Liability by 

Method of Calculation

Liability for Benefits: $114,829

(Dollars in Millions)

*Seriatim at FYE includes the Missing Participants Program

**Nonseriatim includes Probable terminations 

68.8%

19.7%

11.5%

Seriatim at FYE: $79,033*

Seriatim at DOPT Adjusted to FYE: $22,601

Nonseriatim: $13,195**
10

Distribution of FYE16 Single-Employer Plans by

Method of Calculation

 Total Plans: 4,772

*Nonseriatim includes Probable terminations 

89.2%

1.7%

9.1%

Seriatim at FYE: 4,259

Seriatim at DOPT Adjusted to FYE: 81

Nonseriatim: 432*
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Missing Participants Program

The Missing Participants Program refers to a responsibility that PBGC has assumed under the 

Retirement Protection Act of 1994 to act as a clearinghouse for unlocated participants in standard plan 

terminations. As with other parts of PVFB, only the liabilities are shown here. Because plan 

administrators have transferred a corresponding asset amount to PBGC, the net increase in liabilities of 

PBGC due to this program, if any, will be negligible. Changes to this program due to the Pension 

Protection Act of 2006 have not yet been implemented.

Collins Settlement

The Collins Settlement refers to the liability for benefits that PBGC incurred as a result of the 

settlement of a class action lawsuit during fiscal year 1996. This settlement provides benefits for 

participants in plans which terminated between January 1, 1976 and December 31, 1981 without having 

been amended to conform to ERISA’s vesting requirements. The remaining liability under this settlement 

is included in the nonseriatim portion of the liability.
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Multiemployer Program

There were a total of ten pre-MPPAA terminations, nine of which were granted discretionary 

coverage under the provisions of ERISA as passed in 1974. The remaining plan terminated when 

coverage under Title IV was mandatory (from August 1, 1980 until September 25, 1980). PBGC 

calculated the liability for these ten terminations under the seriatim at FYE method using the same 

assumptions as for the single-employer program.

The post-MPPAA portion of the liability represented the present value, as of September 30, 2016, 

of net losses that PBGC expected to incur from non-recoverable future financial assistance to 168 pension 

plans of which 65 were insolvent (i.e., currently receiving PBGC financial assistance) and 103 were 

expected to become insolvent. The liability for each plan was calculated (using the cash flow method) as 

the present value of future guaranteed benefit and expense payments, net of the present value of future 

employer contributions and withdrawal liability payments. This liability was determined as of the later 

of September 30, 2016 and the actual or projected date of insolvency, and then discounted back to 

September 30, 2016 using interest only. The most recent available actuarial reports and information

provided by representatives of the affected plans served as the basis for the valuations.

Projected benefit payments were estimated based on liabilities, current benefit payments and 

estimated average ages for actives, terminated vesteds and retirees from the most recent actuarial reports, 

combined with assumptions of retirement ages and of future rates of mortality and termination. Projected 

expense payments were estimated as a constant percentage of the projected benefit payments; this 

percentage is equal to the ratio of current expense payments to current benefit payments. The projected 

date of insolvency was then established using a cashflow model with initial assets, expense payments, 

contributions, and projected benefit and withdrawal liability payments as inputs, estimated when 

necessary.
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The post-MPPAA liability of $61,009 million as of September 30, 2016 is about $6,823 million 

higher than it was a year earlier. This increase in liability is mostly attributable to the addition of eleven 

new plans and the decrease in the interest factors from September 30, 2015 to September 30, 2016.

These increases were partially offset by a change in the estimated guarantee factor that PBGC 

uses in determining PBGC guaranteed liabilities for multiemployer plans. The change reflects a revised 

procedure for determining the guaranteed benefit reduction factor, based on an assumption that both 

retirees and terminated vested participants have lower average years of service compared to estimates 

used prior to September 30, 2016. In FY 2016, PBGC hired an actuarial firm to conduct a study of 

PBGC’s actual guarantee factor experience for multiemployer plans. This comprehensive study looked 

at all plans in the PBGC multiemployer probable plan universe where guarantee benefit data were 

available. This study found that the PBGC guarantees a smaller percentage of the multiemployer plan 

liabilities than previously estimated. As a result, PBGC updated the assumption to reflect the lower

guarantee. This change in the guaranteed factor assumption accounted for nearly a $4,051 million 

reduction in the estimated guaranteed liabilities.
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Actuarial Assumptions, Methods, and Procedures

PBGC continues to review the actuarial assumptions used in the valuation to assure that they 

remain consistent with current market conditions in the insurance industry and with PBGC's experience. 

The actuarial assumptions, which are used in both the single-employer and multiemployer valuations, 

are presented in Table 2A. Assumptions concerning data that were not available are discussed in the data 

section of this report. 

As in previous valuations, the select and ultimate interest factors used to value PBGC’s liabilities 

were derived using an assumed underlying mortality basis and current annuity purchase prices. The 

interest factors so determined for the September 30, 2016 valuation were 2.27% for the first 20 years 

after the valuation date and 2.14% thereafter. For the September 30, 2015 valuation the interest factors 

were 2.80% for the first 25 years and 2.86% thereafter. These interest factors are dependent upon PBGC’s 

mortality assumption.

Beginning with the June 30, 2016 valuation, PBGC updated the mortality assumptions by 

adopting the recommendations from a study by an independent consulting firm. The study recommended 

that, when conducting valuations for its financial statements, PBGC use the adjusted RP-2014 Healthy 

Male and Female Mortality Tables. The study also recommended that continuing mortality improvements 

be taken into account by using Projection Scale MP-2015 to project these tables a fixed number of years. 

At each valuation date the fixed number of years will be determined as the sum of the elapsed time from 

the date of the table (2014) to the valuation date, plus the period of time from the valuation date to the 

average date of payment of future benefits (the duration). Thus, the mortality tables used for healthy lives 

in the FY 2016 valuations are the RP-2014 Healthy Male Table times 1.09 and Healthy Female Table

times 0.99, each projected 15 years to 2029 using Scale MP-2015. The 15 years recognizes the 2 years 

from 2014 to 2016 plus the 13 year duration of the September 30, 2015 liabilities.
15

This is an approximation to generational mortality tables. The mortality tables used for healthy lives in 

the FY 2015 are the RP-2000 Combined Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables, each projected 28 

years to 2028 using Scale AA and set back one year. The 28 year projection was determined as the sum 

of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 and the 13 year duration of the September 30, 2014 liabilities.

Retirement age assumptions were not changed.

The SPARR (Small Plan Average Recovery Ratio) assumptions as shown in Table 2B were 

updated to reflect the SPARR calculated in FY2016. The FY2016 SPARR of 9.39% is used for the 

September 30, 2016 valuation.

PBGC used the same explicit loading factors as used since FY2007 for expenses in all 

terminated plans and single-employer probable terminations. The reserve for expenses was assumed to 

be 1.37% of the liability for benefits plus additional reserves for cases whose plan asset determinations, 

participant database audits, and actuarial valuations were not yet complete. The factors to determine the 

additional reserves were based on case sizes (large/small), number of participants, and time since 

trusteeship. The factors used in the expense reserve formula are shown in Table 2C.

During the 2016 fiscal year, PBGC improved the system that calculates the liabilities to address 

some of the valuation and security audit findings surrounding the valuation systems. In this year we have 

made improvements to our ability to value temporary disability benefits and benefit recoupments, as well 

as increase and improve the reports available for the analysis of our results. 

We continue our ongoing efforts to improve the quality of the seriatim data and, as in other years, 

made various changes to generally improve the accuracy, speed, security and auditability of the 

calculations as well as integrate with the evolving PBGC technologies.
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 Table 2A

Actuarial Valuation Assumptions

 

 

Previous Valuation as of 9/30/15 Current Valuation as of 9/30/16

Interest Factors Select & Ultimate:

2.80% for 25 years,

2.86% thereafter

Select & Ultimate:

2.27% for 20 years,

2.14% thereafter

Mortality 

Healthy Lives RP-2000 Combined Healthy Male and Female 

Mortality Tables, each projected 28 years to 2028

using Scale AA and set back one year.

RP-2014 Healthy Male Table times 1.09 and 

RP-2014 Healthy Female Mortality Table times 

0.99, each projected 29 years to 2029 using 

Scale MP-2015.

Disabled Lives 

Eligible for Social 

Security (SS) 

Disability Benefits

1994 Group Annuity Mortality Static Male and 

Female Tables, each projected 34 years to 2028 using 

Scale AA and set forward six years.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables as 

described above, set forward 7 years for male 

lives and 8 years for female lives.

Disabled Lives Not 

Eligible for SS 

Disability Benefits

1994 Group Annuity Mortality Static Male and 

Female Tables, each projected 34 years to 2028 using 

Scale AA and set forward three years.

Healthy Male and Female Mortality Tables as 

described above, set forward 5 years for male 

lives and 7 years for female lives.

SPARR Calculated SPARR through fiscal year ending 

9/30/15.

Calculated SPARR through current fiscal year 

ending 9/30/16.

See Table 2B for values and notes.

Retirement Ages (a) Earliest possible for shutdown companies.

(b) Expected retirement age (XRA) tables from 29

 CFR 4044 for ongoing companies.

(c) Deferred participants past XRA are assumed to

 be in pay status, retroactive to their XRA.

 To reflect lower likelihood of payment:

(d) Unlocated deferred participants past age 65 are

 phased out over 3 years.

(e) Located deferred participants are fully phased

 out past age 70.

(f) Deferred participants in the Missing Participants

 Program are phased out over 10 years past age 70.

Same

Expenses All terminated plans and single-employer probable 

terminations:

1.37% of the liability for benefits

 plus 

Additional reserves as shown in Table 2C for cases 

where plan asset determinations, participant database 

audits and actuarial valuations were not complete.

Same
17

 Table 2B

Small Plan Average Recovery Ratio (SPARR) Assumptions

The SPARR is used in the calculation of the liability for benefits determined under section 4022(c) of ERISA, 

which provides participants with a portion of PBGC’s recoveries. The SPARR has been determined by PBGC for 

terminations initiated in a given fiscal year based on actual recoveries and unfunded benefit liabilities for plan 

terminations initiated during a five year averaging period. As of the end of fiscal year 2016, the SPARR had been 

calculated for plan terminations initiated in fiscal years 1991-2016. The FY 2016 SPARR is assumed for probable 

plans affected by future SPARRs. 

Fiscal Year SPARR Fiscal Year SPARR

1991 12.01% 2004 3.42%

1992 7.73% 2005 4.39%

1993 7.44% 10/1/05 – 9/15/06 4.13%

9/16/06 – 9/30/06 3.50%

1994 7.04% 2007 4.35%

1995 7.22% 2008 4.26%

1996 7.90% 2009 3.85%

1997 5.98% 2010 9.15%

1998 6.84% 2011 12.30%

1999 8.01% 2012 12.56%

2000 4.58% 2013 17.23%

2001 4.94% 2014 4.93%

2002 9.60% 2015 9.29%

2003 7.86% 2016 9.39%
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Table 2C

 Reserve Factors for Expenses

Large Plans (more than 100 participants)

Plan Asset

Determinations

Participant

Database Actuarial Valuation

Interim 

Benefits

Administration

Years

Since

Trusteeship

Per Large

Plan

Per Large

Plan

Per Large

Plan

Per Participant 

for the First 100

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the Next 400

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the 

Remaining

Participants

in Plan

Per

Participant

0<=y<1 $23,020 $78,290 $118,640 $1,130 $370 $15 $330 

1<=y<2 15,270 48,470 69,450 660 220 10 190

2<=y<3 12,050 35,970 40,380 380 130 5 110

3<=y 8,570 33,130 31,730 300 100 5 90

Small Plans (100 or fewer participants)

Plan Asset

Determinations

Participant

Database Actuarial Valuation

Interim 

Benefits

Administration

Years

Since

Trusteeship

Per Small

Plan

Per Small

Plan

Per Small

Plan

Per Participant 

for the First 100

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the Next 400

Participants

in Plan

Per Participant 

for the 

Remaining

Participants

in Plan

Per

Participant

0<=y<1 $11,500 $21,470 $118,640 $1,130 N/A N/A $330 

1<=y<2 7,320 18,060 69,450 660 N/A N/A 190

2<=y<3 5,550 15,130 40,380 380 N/A N/A 110

3<=y 5,040 11,430 31,730 300 N/A N/A 90

In addition to the reserve factors shown, an expense reserve equal to 1.37% of the liability for benefits 

applies to both Large Plans and Small Plans. 
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Data Sources and Assumptions

The seriatim portion of this valuation was based on participant data maintained by PBGC’s Office 

of Benefits Administration. For the seriatim liability, benefit amounts have been determined for each 

participant using plan documents, together with ERISA and PBGC regulations relating to guaranteed 

benefits and the allocation of assets. If specific data were not available for deferred vested participants 

under the seriatim method, participants were assumed to be married and to elect the qualified Joint and 

Survivor (J&S) benefit; wives were assumed to be four years younger than their husbands. When certain 

other data elements for a participant were missing, they were replaced by the average for the plan. When 

the plan average was not available, the average for all plans valued seriatim was used. 

The nonseriatim liability was based on the plan's most recent actuarial valuation performed before 

the termination date that is available to PBGC. The valuation information generally was obtained from 

actuarial reports or Schedule SB or MB filings. For nonseriatim plans and probable terminations, 

provision generally has been made to reduce benefits to guaranteed levels. Attained ages for active 

participants, terminated vested participants, and retired participants were assumed to be ages 53, 53 and 

69 respectively for new nonseriatim plans when plan data were unavailable. For post-MPPAA 

multiemployer plans, the assumed ages are 55, 56 and 65, respectively. 
20

Valuation Statistics

The FY 2016 valuation for the single-employer program included approximately 1,399,000 

participants owed future payments in terminated plans as of September 30, 2016 and approximately 4,000 

participants in plans that will probably terminate. For the multiemployer program, the FY 2016 valuation 

included, as of September 30, 2016, 44 participants in terminated pre-MPPAA plans and approximately 

86,000 participants in post-MPPAA plans currently receiving financial assistance and 1,078,000 

participants in post-MPPAA plans expected to receive financial assistance. Of these, about 837,000

participants from terminated single-employer plans and 34 participants from terminated multiemployer 

plans were receiving benefits from PBGC at fiscal year-end.

The average monthly benefit paid by PBGC for participants in pay status during FY 2016 was 

$563 (including supplemental benefits) for the single-employer program and $115 for the multiemployer 

program in the ten pre-MPPAA plans. 

Tables 3 through 6 summarize the detailed results of the seriatim and nonseriatim valuations for 

both the single-employer and multiemployer programs.
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Table 3:

Liability for Pay-Status Recipients in "Seriatim at FYE" Method

 Single-Employer Multiemployer 

 Age

Number of

Benefit

Recipients**

Average

Monthly

Benefit

Average

Supplemental

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of

Liability

 

Number of 

Benefit 

Recipients

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of 

Liability

Under 50 1,714 $114 $211 $76*% 0 - $0 0% 

50-54 2,628 312 262 240 *% 0 - 0 0 

55-59 19,383 328 177 1,681 3% 0 - 0

 

 0 

60-64 67,595 427 235 6,692 12% 0 - 0 0 

65-69 139,718 504 416 14,022 26% 0 - 0

 

 0 

70-74 147,341 550 328 13,639 25% 0 - 0

 

 0

 

75-79 119,425 585 332 9,442 17% 0 - 0

 

0%

80-84 91,405 548 189 5,271 10% 1 42*

 

2%

85-89 62,909 459 84 2,287 4% 11 109 *

 

45%

Over 89 39,467 366 179 794 1% 22 121 *

 

52%

TOTAL 691,585 $507 $257 $54,144 100% 34 $115 $0 100%

* Less than 0.5% or less than $500,000

** Approximately 1% of participants are receiving supplemental benefits.

Note: The liability in this table does not include the liability for the Missing Participants Program.

Table 4:

Liability for Deferred Participants in "Seriatim at FYE" Method

 Single-Employer Multiemployer 

 Age

Number of Benefit 

Recipients**

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Average 

Supplemental 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions) 

Percent of 

Liability

Number of 

Benefit 

Recipients

Average 

Monthly

Benefit

Liability 

(Millions)

Percent of 

Liability

Under 40 1,690 $183 $0 $46 0% 0 - $0  0%

40-44 9,824 201 66 330 1% 0 - 0 0 

45-49 29,312 264 108 1,519 6% 0 - 0 0 

50-54 62,154 339 138 4,759 19% 0 - 0 0 

55-59 79,000 405 177 8,305 33% 0 - 0 0 

60-64 67,790 392 155 7,649 31% 0 - 0 0

Over 64 18,189 308 121 1,712 7% 0 - 0 0 

Other***

62,250 - - - - 502 2% 10 - * 100% 

TOTAL 330,209 $356 $145 $24,822 100% 10 - $* 100%

* Less than 0.5% or less than $500,000 

** Less than 1% of participants (not including others) will receive supplemental benefits.

*** "Other" refers to participants scheduled at year-end for lump sum payments.

 Note: The liability in this table does not include the liability for the Missing Participants Program.
22

 Table 5:

Seriatim at DOPT and Nonseriatim Liability

Plans with Final DOPT Benefits

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 42 $22,483 63.1%

B. Other 39 $118 0.3% 

Subtotal 81 $22,601 63.4%

Plans with Non-Final DOPT Benefits

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 134 $11,683 32.8%

B. Other 295 $838 2.3% 

Subtotal 429 $12,521 35.1%

Probable Plans

Number of 

Plans

Liability 

(millions)

Percent of

Liability

A. Large 3 $526 1.5%

B. Other 0 $0 0.0% 

Subtotal 3 $526 1.5%

Total 513 $35,648 100.0%

Notes:

1) Final DOPT benefits refer to those benefits that PBGC has determined and valued seriatim as of DOPT for 

the plan. Non-Final DOPT benefits are estimates of these final DOPT benefits.

2) Large Plans in this table are those whose present value of Title IV benefits at DOPT equals or exceeds $10 

million. 

3) The liability shown in this table does not include the liability for settlements.

4) The liability for Probable plans is shown as a gross amount (i.e., plan assets and collections on employer 

liabilities are not subtracted from the liability for benefits). Also, the numbers in this table do not include 

the liability for not yet identified probable terminations.
23

Table 6A:

Distribution of Single-Employer Liability (including 4022(c)) by Trusteeship Status, Recipient Status, 

and Valuation Method 

(Dollars in millions)

Recipient Status

Seriatim/

Missing

Participants

Nonseriatim/

Collins

Total 

Terminated

Liability

Probables/

IBNR

Total 

Liability

Percent

of Total

Liability

Receiving Payments

Trusteed $54,142

 

 

 $16,718 $70,860 $0 $70,860 61.7%

Pending Trusteeship 2 323 325 251 576 0.5%

Total $54,144 $17,041 $71,185 $251 $71,436 62.2%

Not Receiving Payments

Trusteed $24,889 $17,831 $42,720 $0 $42,720 37.2%

Pending Trusteeship 0 271 271 402 673 0.6%

Total $24,889 $18,102 $42,991 $402 $43,393 37.8%

All Payment Statuses

Trusteed

$79,031 $34,549 $113,580 $0 $113,580 98.9%

Pending Trusteeship 2 594 596 653 1,249 1.1%

Total $79,033 $35,143 $114,176 $653 $114,829 100.0%

Percent of Terminated 69.2% 30.8% 100.0%

Percent of Total 68.8% 30.6% 99.4% 0.6% 100%

Notes:

1) Recipient status for Seriatim, Missing Participants, IBNR and Collins liabilities refers to status as of 9/30/16. For 

Nonseriatim and Probable liabilities, recipient status refers to the status as of the most recent actuarial valuation 

report (date of plan termination if benefits are "final"). The term "final" is defined in the notes to Table 5.

2) The Probable liabilities are shown as gross amounts (i.e., plan assets and collections on employer liabilities are not

subtracted from the liability for benefits).
24

Table 6B:

Distribution of Single Employer Participants (including 4022(c)) by Trusteeship Status, Recipient Status, 

and Valuation Method

(Participants in thousands)

Recipient Status

Seriatim/

Missing

Participants Nonseriatim

Total 

Terminated

Participants Probables

Total 

Participants

 Percent

 of Total 

Participants *

Receiving Payments

Trusteed 692 140 832 0 832 59.3%

Pending Trusteeship 0 5 5 2 7 0.5%

Total 692 145 837 2 839 59.8%

Not Receiving Payments

Trusteed 354 204 558 0 558 39.8%

Pending Trusteeship 0 4 4 2 6 0.4%

Total 354 208 562 2 564 40.2%

All Payment Statuses

Trusteed 1,046 344 1,390 0 1,390 99.1%

Pending Trusteeship 0 9 9 4 13 0.9%

Total 1,046 353 1,399 4 1,403 100.0%

Percent of Terminated 74.8% 25.2% 100.0%

Percent of Total 74.6% 25.2% 99.8% 0.2% 100%

Notes:

1) Recipient status for Seriatim and Missing Participants liabilities refers to status as of 9/30/16. For 

Nonseriatim and Probable liabilities, recipient status refers to the status as of the most recent actuarial 

valuation report (date of plan termination if benefits are "final"). The term "final" is defined in the notes to 

Table 5.

2) Participant counts for IBNR and Collins are not included.

* may not add due to rounding
25

Reconciliation of Results

Table 7 reconciles the September 30, 2016 valuation with the September 30, 2015 valuation. It 

shows that the $6,338 million increase in the liability for the Single-Employer program was the net effect 

of:

 (1) decreased liability for probable plans = ($573) million

 (2) new plan terminations as of the beginning of the year = $2,023 million

(3) expected interest on the liability = $2,929 million

(4) increased liability from change in interest rates = $6,301 million

(5) change in mortality assumptions = $2,621 million

(6) actual benefit payments = ($5,659) million

(7) other changes = ($1,304) million.

The Multiemployer columns reconcile the liability for the post-MPPAA financial assistance to 

insolvent plans. The liability for the pre-MPPAA terminated plans in FY16 is less than $500,000.
26

Table 7:

Reconciliation of the Present Value of Future Benefits (dollars in millions)

Total Single

Employer

Post-MPPAA

Multiemployer

1. Liability at BOY (9/30/15)

(a) Present Value of Future Benefits for all Plans

(b) Liability for Probable Plans (gross liability including unreported)

(c) Liability for Unreported Terminated Plans and other settlements

(d) 9/30/15 Liability for Terminated Plans (a + b + c)

$108,491

(1,226)

(27)

$107,238

$54,186 

(52,559)

0

$1,627

2. Change in Valuation Software

(a) Effect on Liability as of DOPT

(b) Projection of (a) from DOPT to BOY + post-DOPT changes

(c) Total (a + b)

 $0

 (1)

 ($1)

$0

1

 $1

3. Net New Plans and Missing Participant Liability

(a) New Missing Participant Liability

(b) New Termination Inventory as of DOPT

(c) Deletions as of DOPT

(d) Projection of (b + c) from DOPT to BOY

(e) Total (a + b + c + d)

$4

2,278

(280) 

25

$2,027

$0

474

0

0

$474

4. Nonseriatim Data Changes and Effect of DOPT Seriatim Valuation

(a) Effect on Liability at DOPT

(b) Projection of (a) from DOPT to BOY

(c) Total (a + b)

($856) 

(110) 

($966)

($16)

0

($16)

5. Actuarial Charges/Credits

(a) Expected Interest

(b) Change in Interest Rate (from 2.80% for 25 years; 2.86% thereafter to 

2.27% for 20 years; 2.14% thereafter)

(c) Change in Mortality Assumption

(d) Change in Method (Current Year: Seriatim at DOPT to Seriatim at FYE)

(e) Effect of Experience*

(f) Change in Other Assumptions (Expense, SPARR, PBGCC STD Rates)

(g) Total (a + b + c + d + e +f)

$2,929

6,301

2,621

 7

(313)

89

$11,634

$56

100

42

0

(19)

(13)

$166

6. Expected Expense Payments ($118) $0

7. Actual Benefit Payments ($5,659) ($113)

8. Liabilities at End of Period (9/30/16)

(a) Liability for all Terminated Plans 

= (1d) + (2c) + (3e) + (4c) + (5g) + (6) + (7)

(b) Liability for Unreported Terminated Plans and other settlements

(c) Liability for all Terminated Plans (a + b)

(d) Liability for Probable Plans (gross liability including unreported) **

(e) 9/30/16 Present Value of Future Benefits for all Plans (c + d)

$114,155

21

114,176

653

$114,829

$2,139

0

2,139

58,870

$61,009

* Includes change from expected benefits ($5,791.6 million) to actual benefits ($5,658.9 million) in Total Single Employer.

Includes change from expected benefits ($131.3 million) to actual benefits ($112.5 million) in Post-MPPAA 

Multiemployer. Actual does not include payments made by employers.

** Includes $127.5 million for not yet identified probable terminations. Financial statements show a liability of $653.2 million 

for probable terminations, less assets of $277.2 million, for a net claim of $376.0 million.
27

Statement of Actuarial Opinion

This valuation has been prepared in accordance with generally accepted actuarial principles 

and practices and, to the best of my knowledge, fairly reflects the actuarial present value of the 

Corporation's liabilities for the single-employer and multiemployer plan insurance programs as of 

September 30, 2016.

In preparing this valuation, I have relied upon information provided to me regarding plan 

provisions, plan participants, plan assets, and other matters.

In my opinion, (1) the techniques and methodology used for valuing these liabilities are 

generally acceptable within the actuarial profession; (2) the assumptions used are appropriate for 

the purposes of this statement and are individually my best estimate of expected future experience,

discounted using current settlement rates from insurance companies as determined by PBGC’s 

Policy Research and Analysis Department; and (3) the resulting total liability represents my best 

estimate of anticipated experience under these programs.

I, Scott G. Young, am the Chief Valuation Actuary of PBGC. I am a Member of the 

American Academy of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and an Enrolled Actuary. 

I meet the Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render the actuarial 

opinion contained in this report.

Scott G. Young

Scott G. Young, FSA, EA, MAAA

Fellow of the Society of Actuaries

Enrolled Actuary

Member of the American Academy of Actuaries

Chief Valuation Actuary and Department Director

Actuarial Services and Technology Department

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

April 2017