U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

1 

Independent Statistics & Analysis        

U.S. Energy Information 

Administration   March 2012

Short‐Term Energy Outlook   March 6, 2012 Release                 

Highlights

     

 EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average

about $106 per barrel in 2012, $5 per barrel higher than in the previous Outlook

and $11 per barrel higher than the average price last year.  Supply disruptions

in the Middle East and Africa contributed to a significant increase in world

crude oil prices during February.  EIA has increased the forecast 2012 average

cost of crude oil to U.S. refiners from $105 per barrel in last month’s Outlook to

$115 per barrel.  Constraints in transporting crude oil from the U.S.

midcontinent region contribute to the expected continuing discount for WTI

relative to other world crude oil prices.  EIA expects WTI prices to remain

relatively flat in 2013, averaging about $106 per barrel, while the U.S. refiner

average cost of crude oil averages $110 per barrel.

 EIA expects regular‐grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $3.79 per

gallon in 2012 and $3.72 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in

2011.  During the April through September summer driving season this year,

prices are forecast to average about $3.92 per gallon with a peak monthly

average price of $3.96 per gallon in May.  The June 2012 New York Harbor

Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) futures contract

averaged $3.26 for the five trading days ending March 1.  Based on the market

value of futures and options contracts, there is a 39 percent probability that its

price at expiration will exceed $3.35 per gallon, consistent with a monthly

average regular‐grade gasoline retail price of roughly $4.00 per gallon in June.  

The value of futures and options contracts imply a 2 percent probability that its

price at expiration will exceed $4.35 per gallon, consistent with a monthly

average regular‐grade gasoline retail price of approximately $5.00 per gallon.

 The warm weather this winter has resulted in natural gas working inventories

that continue to set new record seasonal highs, with February 2012 ending at an

estimated 2.44 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 41 percent above the same time

last year.  EIA’s average 2012 Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast is $3.17

per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline of about $0.83 per MMBtu
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

2 

from the 2011 average spot price.  EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will

average $3.96 per MMBtu in 2013.

 EIA expects electricity generation from coal to decline by nearly 5 percent in

2012 as generation from natural gas increases by about 9 percent.  EIA forecasts

that electricity generation from coal will increase by 3.8 percent in 2013, as

projected coal prices to the power sector fall slightly while natural gas prices

increase, and coal regains some of its power sector generation share.

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview.  EIA expects increases in global consumption

to outpace production growth in countries outside of the Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the forecast period.  World liquid fuels

consumption grows by an annual average of 1.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012

and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2013.  Supply from non‐OPEC countries increases by 0.7

million bbl/d in 2012 and by 0.8 million bbl/d in 2013.  EIA expects that the market

will rely on both inventories and increases in crude oil and non‐crude liquids

production from OPEC members to meet world demand growth.  

Significant uncertainties could push oil prices higher or lower than projected.  A

number of non‐OPEC countries are currently undergoing supply disruptions. Oil

prices could be higher than projected in this Outlook if current disruptions intensify,

new non‐OPEC projects come online more slowly than expected, or OPEC members

do not increase production. On the demand side, if the pace of global economic

growth fails to recover in countries belonging to the Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development (OECD), or if economic growth slows in non‐OECD

countries, prices could be lower.

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption.  World liquid fuels consumption

grew by an estimated 0.8 million bbl/d to 87.9 million bbl/d in 2011.  EIA expects that

this growth will accelerate over the next two years, with consumption reaching 89.0

million bbl/d in 2012 and 90.3 million bbl/d in 2013.  Non‐OECD countries will

account for essentially all of the world’s consumption growth over the next two years,

with the largest contributions coming from China, the Middle East, and Central and

South America (World Liquid Fuels Consumption Chart).   

Non‐OPEC Supply. EIA expects non‐OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels production to

rise by 690 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and by a further 750 thousand bbl/d in 2013. The

largest area of forecast non‐OPEC growth will be North America, where production

increases by 360 thousand bbl/d and 190 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and 2013,
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

3 

respectively, resulting from continued production growth from U.S. onshore shale

formations and Canadian oil sands.  EIA expects that Kazakhstan, which will

commence commercial production in the Kashagan field in the next year, will increase

its total production annually by an average of 170 thousand bbl/d in both 2012 and

2013.  In Brazil, production increases annually by an average of 120 thousand bbl/d

over the next two years, with increased output from its offshore, pre‐salt oil fields.  

Production also increases in Colombia and China over the next two years, while

production declines in Russia, Mexico, and the North Sea.   

Several notable disruptions to non‐OPEC production commenced or intensified over

the last two months, leaving an average of around 1 million bbl/d offline in February.  

In the former Sudan, an unresolved dispute between Sudan and the newly

independent South Sudan over transit fees and other issues caused the latter to shut in

all of its production at the end of January.  EIA now projects that total production

from Sudan and South Sudan, which averaged about 430 thousand bb/d in 2011, will

average 200 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and recover to 370 thousand bbl/d in 2013.  

In Yemen and Syria, civil conflict continues to compromise a considerable portion of

each country’s oil output. Yemen’s production is already impaired by an ongoing

outage to the Marib pipeline and was further curtailed in February by a strike at the

country’s largest oil field.  EIA projects that Yemen’s production will average 180

thousand bbl/d in 2012, and 200 thousand bbl/d in 2013, down from the country’s pre‐

crisis production level of around 260 thousand bbl/d.  In Syria, damage to a major

pipeline that feeds one of the country’s two refineries has exacerbated the country’s

production problems.  EIA now expects Syria to produce 260 thousand bbl/d in 2012

and recover to 360 thousand bbl/d in 2013, still below the country’s pre‐crisis

production level of 400 thousand bbl/d.

Disruptions stemming from technical issues have temporarily curbed production in

the United Kingdom and Canada, but production is expected to recover in the near

future.

OPEC Supply.  EIA expects that OPEC members’ crude oil production will continue

to rise over the next two years to accommodate the projected increase in world oil

demand. Projected OPEC crude oil production increases by about 490 thousand bbl/d

and 560 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and 2013, respectively.  EIA’s forecast does not factor

in any potential effects that the impending European Union embargo and other

sanctions may have on Iran’s crude oil production because it is too early to assess the

country’s ability to place its supply elsewhere.  However, EIA estimates that Iran’s

crude oil production has fallen since mid‐2011 and is projected to continue to decline

through the forecast period.  OPEC non‐crude petroleum liquids (condensates,
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

4 

natural gas liquids, coal‐to‐liquids, and gas‐to‐liquids), which is not covered by

OPEC’s production quotas, will increase by 220 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and by 60

thousand bbl/d in 2013.

OPEC members serve as the “swing” producers in the world market, because only

OPEC producers possess surplus or “spare” oil production capacity.  EIA expects that

OPEC surplus production capacity will increase from about 2.4 million bbl/d in

January 2012 to 3.7 million bbl/d at the end of 2013, as Libyan production capacity

recovers to pre‐disruption levels, allowing other OPEC producers to scale back

production (OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity Chart).

OECD Petroleum Inventories.  EIA estimates that commercial oil inventories held in

the OECD ended 2011 at 2.64 billion barrels, equivalent to about 56.9 days of forward‐

cover (days‐of‐supply). Although the December 2011 inventory is slightly lower than

the 2.66‐billion‐barrel level at the end of December 2010, the days of forward‐cover

are at the highest end‐of‐year level since 1994 because of a decline in OECD

consumption last year.  Projected OECD oil inventories decline slightly over the

forecast, with OECD inventories falling to 2.57 billion barrels, or 55.4 days of forward‐

cover, at the end of 2013 (Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks Chart).

Crude Oil Prices.  EIA’s forecast of the WTI spot price is higher than last month’s

Outlook, averaging about $106 per barrel in both 2012 and 2013 (West Texas

Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart), compared with $100 and $104 per barrel for 2012

and 2013, respectively, in the previous Outlook. The projected WTI price discount to

the average U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil narrows over the forecast from

about $10 per barrel in the second quarter of 2012 to $4 per barrel by the fourth

quarter of 2013, as physical pipeline capacity constraints diminish. The projected

average refiner acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil averages $115 per barrel in 2012

and $110 per barrel in 2013.  

Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report).

WTI futures for May 2012 delivery during the 5‐day period ending March 1, 2012

averaged $108.60 per barrel.  Implied volatility averaged 30 percent, establishing the

lower and upper limits of the 95‐percent confidence interval for the marketʹs

expectations of monthly average WTI prices in May 2012 at $88 per barrel and $134

per barrel, respectively.  Last year at this time, WTI for May 2011 delivery averaged

$101 per barrel and implied volatility averaged 36 percent.  The corresponding lower

and upper limits of the 95‐percent confidence interval were $79 per barrel and $129

per barrel.

   
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

5 

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption.   In 2011, total U.S. liquid fuels consumption fell by

340 thousand bbl/d (1.8 percent) from the 2010 average level (U.S. Liquid Fuels

Consumption Chart).  Motor gasoline consumption accounted for much of that

decline, shrinking by 260 thousand bbl/d (2.9 percent).  In contrast, distillate fuel oil

consumption rose by 50 thousand bbl/d (1.3 percent), brought about by recovery in

industrial output and freight transport.

Even with forecast U.S. real gross domestic product growth of 2.2 percent in 2012 and

2.4 percent in 2013, the next two years are expected to see only small changes in total

liquid fuels consumption, with a decline of about 60 thousand bbl/d (0.3 percent) in

2012 and an increase of 110 thousand bbl/d (0.6 percent) in 2013.  Motor gasoline

consumption, constrained by slowing growth in the driving‐age population and the

improving fuel economy of new vehicles, is forecast to fall by 60 thousand bbl/d in

2012 and decline by 10 thousand bbl/d in 2013.  Distillate fuel consumption, however,

continues to rise.

U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply and Imports.  Domestic crude oil production increased by an

estimated 120 thousand bbl/d to 5.60 million bbl/d in 2011.  A 390‐thousand bbl/d

increase in lower‐48 onshore production in 2011 was partly offset by a 40‐thousand

bbl/d decline in Alaska and a 230‐thousand bbl/d decline in output in the Federal Gulf

of Mexico (GOM).   

Forecast U.S. total crude oil production increases by 230 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and

by a further 90 thousand bbl/d in 2013.  Continued increases in lower‐48 onshore

crude oil production of 340 thousand bbl/d in 2012 overshadow declines averaging

about 20 thousand bbl/d in Alaskan output and a 90‐thousand bbl/d decrease in GOM

production (U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Chart).  The rise in

production is driven by increased oil‐directed drilling activity, particularly in onshore

shale formations.  The number of onshore oil‐directed drilling rigs reported by Baker

Hughes increased from 777 at the beginning of 2011 to 1,293 on March 2, 2012.

Since the idling of two refineries late last year, the East Coast lost another important

source of supply last month when HOVENSA closed its St. Croix refinery in the U.S.

Virgin Islands.  The market transition on the East Coast thus far has been relatively

smooth.  However, if Sunoco’s Philadelphia refinery closes in July 2012, as Sunoco has

announced may occur if no buyer is found, the Northeast could be significantly

affected, as replacing the additional lost volumes will be complicated by reduced

access to distribution systems.  Adequate refining capacity is available outside of the

East Coast to replace product supplies, but logistical constraints to delivering product
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

6 

to the Northeast in the short term may present significant challenges.  For a more

detailed analysis on Northeast refining issues, see EIA’s “Potential Impacts of

Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets.”

The share of total U.S. consumption met by total liquid fuel net imports (including

both crude oil and products) has been falling since 2005, and averaged 45 percent in

2011, down from 49 percent in 2010.  EIA expects that the total net import share of

consumption will remain near 2011 levels in 2012 and 2013.

U.S. Petroleum Product Prices.  Regular‐grade gasoline retail prices averaged $3.53

per gallon in 2011, $0.74 per gallon (27 percent) higher than the 2010 average.  The

price increase in 2011 largely reflected higher crude oil costs ($0.60 per gallon) and

higher refinery gasoline margins ($0.10 per gallon).  EIA expects the regular‐grade

gasoline retail price to increase to an average of $3.79 per gallon in 2012 due to higher

crude oil prices (U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Chart), and regular‐grade

gasoline prices this summer are expected to average close to $4.00 per gallon in May.  

Forecast regular‐grade gasoline prices decline to an average of $3.72 per gallon in

2013.

EIA expects that on‐highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $3.84 per gallon

in 2011, will average $4.15 per gallon in 2012, and $4.11 per gallon in 2013 (U.S. Diesel

Fuel and Crude Oil Prices Chart).

Between 1990 and 2004, annual average wholesale gasoline prices ranged from 5 cents

per gallon to 11 cents per gallon above wholesale diesel prices.  Beginning in 2005,

wholesale gasoline prices fell below wholesale diesel fuel prices in all years except

2009, as world demand growth for diesel fuel, primarily in the emerging economies,

outpaced gasoline demand growth.  EIA expects gasoline wholesale prices to remain

lower than diesel wholesale prices, with gasoline prices averaging 17 cents per gallon

below diesel in 2012 and 21 cents per gallon lower in 2013.

Natural Gas

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption.  EIA expects that natural gas consumption will

average 68.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2012, an increase of 2.1 Bcf/d (3.1

percent) from 2011. EIA expects that large gains in electric power use will offset

declines in residential and commercial use.  Because of the much‐warmer‐than‐

normal winter this year, EIA expects residential and commercial consumption to fall

by 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in 2012, reflecting a downward revision in

projected consumption from last month’s Outlook.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

7 

Projected consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector grows by close to 9

percent in 2012, primarily driven by the relative advantages of natural gas over coal

for power generation in a growing number of economic dispatch decisions.  

Consumption in the electric power sector peaks in the third quarter of 2012, when

electricity demand for air conditioning is highest.  

Growth in total natural gas consumption continues into 2013, with forecast

consumption averaging 69.3 Bcf/d (U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Chart).  

Consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increases in 2013 because of

the forecast return to near‐normal temperatures next winter.  The increase in

consumption in these sectors more than offsets a decline in power sector natural gas

burn stemming from the projected increase in natural gas prices relative to coal prices

later this year and next.  

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports. Total marketed production of natural gas

grew by an estimated 4.8 Bcf/d (7.9 percent) in 2011, the largest year‐over‐year

volumetric increase in history.  This strong growth was driven in large part by

increases in shale gas production.  While EIA expects year‐over‐year production

growth to continue in 2012 and 2013, the projected increases occur at a much lower

rate than in 2011 as low prices reduce new drilling plans. According to Baker Hughes,

the natural gas rig count fell to 691 as of March 2, 2012, from a 2011 high of 936 in

mid‐October.  So far, the lower rig count has not impacted production levels, partly

reflecting improved drilling efficiency. However, fewer horizontal natural gas wells,

particularly in areas such as the Haynesville Shale, contribute to small short‐term

production declines through June 2012. These declines reverse later in the year as

prices rise, wet natural gas production rises, and associated gas production from oil

wells increases.

Pipeline gross imports are expected to fall by 0.6 Bcf/d (7.0 percent) in 2012 as

domestic supply displaces Canadian sources. The warm winter in the United States

also adds to the year‐over‐year decline in imports, particularly to the Northeast,

where imported natural gas is often a marginal source of supply. Pipeline gross

exports grew by 1.0 Bcf/d in 2011, driven by increased exports to Mexico, and are

expected to continue to grow, although at a slower rate, in 2012 and 2013.  

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to fall by 0.3 Bcf/d (28 percent) in

2012.  EIA expects that an average of about 0.7 Bcf/d will arrive at terminals in the

United States in both 2012 and 2013, either to fulfill long‐term contract obligations or

to take advantage of temporarily high local prices due to cold snaps and disruptions.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

8 

U.S. Natural Gas Inventories. Working natural gas inventories continue to set new

seasonal record highs as a v ery warm winter has contributed to much‐lower‐than‐

normal inventory draws.  As of February 24, 2012, according to EIA’s Weekly Natural

Gas Storage Report, working inventories totaled 2,513 Bcf, 756 Bcf greater than last

year’s level.  EIA expects the winter heating season, which goes through March 31,

will end with working inventories of about 2,270 Bcf, which would be highest end‐of‐

March level on record.  In the last 20 years, end‐of‐March inventories have not risen

over 1,700 Bcf, and prior to that, rose above 2,100 Bcf just once, in 1983.  With only a

few exceptions, weekly inventory withdrawals have been smaller than the previous

five‐year average during this year’s winter heating season.  EIA expects inventory

levels at the end of October in both 2012 and 2013 will set new record highs as well

(U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage Chart).

U.S. Natural Gas Prices.  Natural gas spot prices averaged $2.50 per MMBtu at the

Henry Hub in February 2012, down $0.17 per MMBtu from the January 2012 average

and the lowest average monthly price since February 2002.  Abundant storage levels,

as well as ample production, have contributed to the recent low prices.  EIA expects

that the Henry Hub spot price will begin to recover soon and will average $3.17 per

MMBtu in 2012, and $3.96 per MMBtu in 2013, down $0.18 per MMBtu and $0.11 per

MMBtu from last month’s Outlook, respectively (U.S. Natural Gas Prices Chart).

Natural gas futures prices for May 2012 delivery (for the 5‐day period ending March

1, 2012) averaged $2.69 per MMBtu, and the average implied volatility was 42 percent

(Market Prices and Uncertainty Report).  The lower and upper bounds for the 95‐

percent confidence interval for May 2012 contracts are $1.96 per MMBtu and $3.69 per

MMBtu.  At this time last year, the May 2011 natural gas futures contract averaged

$3.98 per MMBtu and implied volatility averaged 33 percent.  The corresponding

lower and upper limits of the 95‐percent confidence interval were $3.09 per MMBtu

and $5.11 per MMBtu.

  

Coal  

U.S. Coal Consumption.  Electric power sector coal consumption is forecast to decline

by nearly 5 percent in 2012 as generation from natural gas, nuclear, and wind

increases (U.S. Coal Consumption Chart).  EIA expects electric power sector coal

consumption to drop below 900 million short tons (MMst) for the first time since 1996.

Projected power sector coal prices fall slightly next year while natural gas prices

increase.  In response, EIA expects that electric power sector coal consumption will

increase by 1.9 percent in 2013 as the economic competitiveness of coal‐fired

generation improves.   

  
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

9 

U.S. Coal Supply. EIA expects coal production to decline by 4.4 percent in 2012 as

domestic consumption and exports fall (U.S. Coal Production Chart).  Production

declines are expected in all coal‐producing regions, with the largest occurring in the

Interior region (19.3 MMst).  EIA projects that secondary inventories will rise in 2012,

but decline in the following year, primarily in the electric power sector, as

consumption grows (U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks Chart).

U.S. Coal Trade.  EIA expects U.S. coal exports to remain strong but be below the 107

MMst exported in 2011. Forecast U.S. coal exports are 99 MMst in both 2012 and 2013.  

U.S. coal exports averaged 56 MMst in the decade preceding 2011.

  

U.S. Coal Prices.  Delivered coal prices to the electric power sector have increased

steadily over the last 10 years and this trend continued in 2011, with an average

delivered coal price of  $2.40 per MMBtu (5.8 percent increase from 2010).  However,

EIA expects the decline in demand for coal to generate electricity will put downward

pressure on coal prices and contribute to the shut‐in of higher‐cost production.

Several companies have recently announced the curtailment of operations,

particularly in Appalachia, where production costs at some older mines are high.  EIA

forecasts the average delivered coal price in 2013 will be about 3 percent lower than

the 2011 average price.

Electricity

U.S. Electricity Consumption.  EIA expects total U.S. consumption of electricity will

fall slightly during 2012, and then grow by 1.9 percent during 2013 (U.S. Total

Electricity Consumption Chart).  Growth in retail sales of electricity to the commercial

and industrial sectors during 2012 of 0.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, will be

offset by a 2.1 percent decline in residential sector consumption.  Residential

consumption falls this year as a result of milder weather compared with last year.  

EIA estimates that U.S. residential electricity consumption during January and

February was about 9 percent lower than during the same months of 2011, primarily

because of the 17‐percent decline in heating degree‐days nationwide.  Similarly, the

projected 15‐percent year‐over‐year decline in U.S. cooling degree‐days this year is

expected to lead to reduced electricity demand this summer.  The total number of U.S.

households is expected to grow by 1.4 percent during 2013, which would be the

highest growth rate since 1998.

U.S. Electricity Generation.  Recent data show that the trend in displacing coal with

natural gas as a generation fuel has accelerated in response to the current low price of

natural gas delivered to electric generators.  U.S. generation fueled by natural gas in

December 2011 was 11.6 percent higher than in December 2010.  In contrast, coal‐fired
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

10 

generation declined by 20.7 percent over the same period.  EIA expects this fuel

displacement pattern to continue at least through the first half of 2012, causing the

annual average share of total generation fueled by natural gas to rise from 24.8

percent in 2011 to 27.1 percent for 2012.  As delivered natural gas prices begin

increasing later this year, in response to higher demand and flattening growth in

production, EIA expects the trend in fuel displacement will reverse slightly in 2013,

with natural gas’ share of U.S. generation falling back to an annual average of 26.1

percent (U.S. Electricity Generation Chart).   

U.S. Electricity Retail Prices.  The price of natural gas delivered to electric generators

is estimated to have averaged about $3.30 per MMBtu in February 2012, which would

be its lowest nominal value in 10 years.  EIA expects these low fuel costs to be passed

through to residential electricity consumers over the next two years.  Average U.S.

residential electricity prices are forecast to rise by 0.4 percent in 2012, and then fall by

0.9 percent in 2013 (U.S. Residential Electricity Prices Chart).  These growth rates

compare with an average annual increase of 2.6 percent during the past five years.

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

U.S. Renewables.   After a banner year in 2011, U.S. hydropower production is

assumed to return to long‐term average production levels in 2012 and beyond.  The

strong growth in hydropower combined with growth in other renewables led to a 14

percent increase in total renewable energy supply in 2011.  EIA expects the total

renewable energy supply to decline by 3.8 percent in 2012 as the reduction in

hydropower production offsets continued growth in other renewables (U.S.

Renewable Energy Supply Chart).  In 2013, renewables supply increases 1.4 percent as

non‐hydropower renewables continue to increase.

EIA expects fuel ethanol production to grow from an average of 910 thousand bbl/d in

2011 to 920 thousand bbl/d in 2012, and to 930 thousand bbl/d in 2013.  U.S. ethanol

production is projected to exceed the volume that can easily be used in the U.S. liquid

fuels pool, so the Nation will continue to be a net exporter of ethanol over the next

two years.  EIA estimates that biodiesel production in 2011 averaged about 61

thousand bbl/d (939 million gallons of total annual production).  Forecast biodiesel

production averages 64 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and 65 thousand bbl/d in 2013.

U.S. CO2 Emissions.  After declining by 2.0 percent in 2011, fossil fuel emissions are

projected to fall an additional 0.4 percent in 2012, but increase by 0.9 percent in 2013.  

After falling by 2.1 percent last year, petroleum emissions continue to decline slightly

in 2012, and then increase by 0.4 percent in 2013.  Natural gas emissions rise in both
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2012 

11 

2012 and 2013.  Coal emissions fall in 2012 by 3.4 percent, but rise by 1.9 percent in

2013 (U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth Chart).
 U.S. Energy Information Administration

 Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short-Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook 

Chart Gallery for Chart Gallery for March 2012

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013

Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending March 1, 2012

 Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

dollars per barrel

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Price difference

Retail regular gasoline

Crude oil

dollars per gallon

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Price difference

Retail diesel fuel

Crude oil

dollars per gallon

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013

Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending March 1, 2012

 Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

dollars per million Btu

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Residential price

Henry Hub spot price

Composite wellhead price

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

dollars per thousand cubic feet
World Liquid Fuels Consumption

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

China United States Other Countries

Total consumption

Annual growth

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Forecast

million barrels per day million barrels per day

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

(change from previous year)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011 2012 2013

OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Forecast

million barrels per day

* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011 2012 2013

OPEC countries Russia and Caspian Sea

North America Latin America

North Sea Other Non-OPEC

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Forecast

million barrels per day

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

(change from previous year)
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth 

(change from previous year)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

United States

Canada

Kazakhstan

Colombia

China

Brazil

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

India

Malaysia

Oman

Gabon

Australia

Egypt

Russia

Syria

Other North Sea

Sudan

Mexico

Norway

United Kingdom

2013

2012

2011

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

million barrels per day

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production

(change from previous year)

Forecast

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

5

2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

World oil consumption (left axis) 100

Non-OPEC production (left axis)

WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

millions of barrels per day dollars per barrel

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Forecast

Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)

million barrels per day

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012
OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Forecast

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

0

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

days of supply

U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production

(million barrels per day)

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

7.25

7.50

7.75

8.00

8.25

8.50

8.75

9.00

9.25

9.50

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

2010 2011 2012 2013

Crude oil (right axis) Liquefied petroleum gas and pentanes plus (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis) Biodiesel (right axis)

Total production (left axis) Production forecast (left axis)

Total production

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Forecast

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

0

million barrels

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption

(million barrels per day)

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2010 2011 2012 2013

Motor gasoline (right axis) Jet fuel (right axis)

Distillate fuel (right axis) Other fuels (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

Total consumption

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Total motor gasoline inventory

Total distillate fuel inventory

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

0

million barrels

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption

(billion cubic feet per day)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2011 2012 2013

Electric power (right axis) Residential and commercial (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Other (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

Total consumption

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports

(billion cubic feet per day)

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2010 2011 2012 2013

Net imports (right axis) Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)

U.S. production excluding Gulf of Mexico (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis)

Marketed production forecast (left axis)

Total marketed production

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

Forecast

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013

Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average

Storage level

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

billion cubic feet

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Coal Consumption

(million short tons)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013

Electric power (right axis) Coke plants (right axis)

Retail and general industry (right axis) Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

Total consumption

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012
U.S. Coal Production

(million short tons)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013

Western region (right axis) Appalachian region (right axis)

Interior region (right axis) Total production (left axis)

Production forecast (left axis)

Total production

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks

Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan

2004

Jan

2005

Jan

2006

Jan

2007

Jan

2008

Jan

2009

Jan

2010

Jan

2011

Jan

2012

Jan

2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

0

million short tons

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

U.S. Electricity Consumption

(million kilowatthours per day)

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013

Residential (right axis) Commercial and transportation (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Direct use (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

Total consumption

(line chart)

Change from prior year

(column chart)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012
U.S. Residential Electricity Price

4.2%

-1.6%

3.2% 2.6%

5.4%

10.3%

2.4%

5.7%

2.2%

0.3%

2.2%

0.4%

-0.9%

Forecast

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Annual growth

Monthly average electricity price

cents per kilowatthour change from prior year

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors

24.8% 27.1% 26.1%

17.9% 18.8% 20.1% 21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9%

49.8% 49.6% 49.0% 48.5% 48.2% 44.4% 44.8% 42.2% 40.4% 41.2%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Coal

Natural gas

Petroleum

Nuclear

Hydropower

Renewables

Other sources

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Forecast

thousand megawatthours per day

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

U.S. Renewable Energy Supply

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Solar power

Geothermal

Other biomass

Wind power

Liquid biofuels

Wood biomass

Hydropower

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Quadrillion British

Thermal Units (Btu)

Forecast

Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other 

biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.
U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share 

of Gross Domestic Product

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Forecast

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth

(change from previous year)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2010 2011 2012 2013

All fossil fuels Coal Petroleum Natural gas

Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days 

(population-weighted)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

2010

2011

2012

2013

Normal

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days

(population-weighted)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

Normal

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

Pacific

East

South

Central

South

Atlantic

Middle

Atlantic

New

England

West

South

Central

West

North

Central

East

North

Mountain Central

WA

MT

ID W

NV

UT

CO

AZ

NM

TX

OK

IA

KS MO IL IN

KY

TN

MS AL

FL

GA SC

NC

WV

PA

NY

VT ME

NJ

MD

DE

CTRI

MA

NH

VA

W

MI

OH

NE

SD

ND MN

AR

LA

OR

CA

AK

Pacific

HI

Pacific

WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST

SOUTH

REGION

Division

LEGEND

State

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 Avg.06-11 10-11 11-12 % Change 

Natural Gas 

 Northeast

 Consumption (mcf**) 75.7 76.5 77.0 82.5 77.8 77.9 82.7 72.3 -12.7

 Price ($/mcf) 16.35 14.74 15.17 15.82 13.31 15.08 12.63 12.02 -4.8

 Expenditures ($) 1,238 1,128 1,168 1,306 1,035 1,175 1,045 868 -16.9

 Midwest

 Consumption (mcf) 77.4 79.8 83.3 86.0 83.8 82.1 85.1 74.0 -13.0

 Price ($/mcf) 13.46 11.06 11.39 11.46 9.43 11.33 9.19 8.89 -3.2

 Expenditures ($) 1,042 882 949 986 790 930 782 658 -15.8

 South

 Consumption (mcf) 51.1 51.9 50.7 53.7 60.6 53.6 55.6 48.6 -12.7

 Price ($/mcf) 16.49 13.57 14.16 14.05 11.51 13.87 11.02 11.22 1.8

 Expenditures ($) 842 704 718 755 698 743 613 545 -11.1

 West

 Consumption (mcf) 50.3 50.8 53.0 50.5 52.3 51.4 51.8 51.5 -0.6

 Price ($/mcf) 12.96 11.20 11.31 10.86 9.91 11.24 9.62 9.19 -4.5

 Expenditures ($) 652 569 600 548 519 578 498 473 -5.0

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (mcf) 64.2 65.4 67.1 69.0 69.2 67.0 69.5 62.3 -10.3

 Price ($/mcf) 14.57 12.35 12.71 12.86 10.82 12.64 10.41 10.10 -3.1

 Expenditures ($) 935 808 853 888 749 847 724 629 -13.1

Heating Oil

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (gallons) 616.5 623.7 633.6 678.3 643.1 639.1 679.3 590.9 -13.0

 Price ($/gallon) 2.44 2.42 3.33 2.65 2.85 2.74 3.38 3.79 12.0

 Expenditures ($) 1,505 1,512 2,107 1,800 1,832 1,751 2,298 2,238 -2.6

Electricity

 Northeast

 Consumption (kwh***) 8,623 8,681 8,723 9,114 8,763 8,781 9,116 8,363 -8.3

 Price ($/kwh) 0.133 0.139 0.144 0.151 0.152 0.144 0.155 0.155 0.4

 Expenditures ($) 1,144 1,206 1,258 1,379 1,328 1,263 1,410 1,299 -7.9

 Midwest

 Consumption (kwh) 9,959 10,154 10,460 10,641 10,509 10,345 10,585 9,715 -8.2

 Price ($/kwh) 0.081 0.085 0.089 0.098 0.099 0.090 0.104 0.106 1.7

 Expenditures ($) 802 866 934 1,038 1,035 935 1,106 1,032 -6.7

 South

 Consumption (kwh) 8,400 8,421 8,334 8,667 9,185 8,601 8,827 8,158 -7.6

 Price ($/kwh) 0.092 0.096 0.098 0.109 0.103 0.100 0.104 0.106 2.0

 Expenditures ($) 774 810 820 942 945 858 920 868 -5.7

 West

 Consumption (kwh) 7,615 7,644 7,839 7,614 7,767 7,696 7,722 7,684 -0.5

 Price ($/kwh) 0.097 0.102 0.104 0.106 0.111 0.104 0.113 0.113 -0.1

 Expenditures ($) 736 782 813 811 860 800 874 869 -0.6

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (kwh) 8,105 8,150 8,190 8,365 8,622 8,286 8,467 7,934 -6.3

 Price ($/kwh) 0.096 0.101 0.104 0.112 0.110 0.105 0.113 0.115 1.5

 Expenditures ($) 781 823 852 938 948 868 957 911 -4.9

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast

U. S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- March 2012
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 Avg.06-11 10-11 11-12 % Change 

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast

U. S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- March 2012

Propane

 Northeast

 Consumption (gallons) 778.7 786.2 793.8 846.7 796.7 800.4 846.6 742.3 -12.3

 Price ($/gallon) 2.30 2.35 2.93 2.84 2.98 2.68 3.23 3.40 5.3

 Expenditures ($) 1,790 1,849 2,324 2,406 2,376 2,149 2,735 2,525 -7.7

 Midwest

 Consumption (gallons) 778.7 803.4 842.6 864.3 848.4 827.5 857.6 748.2 -12.8

 Price ($/gallon) 1.81 1.79 2.23 2.08 1.97 1.98 2.12 2.22 4.6

 Expenditures ($) 1,407 1,440 1,883 1,795 1,673 1,640 1,816 1,658 -8.7

Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)

 Northeast

 Natural gas 10,382 10,452 10,614 10,792 10,920 10,632 10,970 11,040 0.6

 Heating oil 6,670 6,589 6,459 6,224 5,975 6,383 5,781 5,610 -3.0

 Propane 737 720 697 707 727 718 742 755 1.7

 Electricity 2,452 2,487 2,527 2,541 2,633 2,528 2,710 2,722 0.5

 Midwest

 Natural gas 18,078 18,151 18,194 18,125 17,910 18,092 17,866 17,903 0.2

 Heating oil 626 582 529 486 448 534 413 386 -6.4

 Propane 2,270 2,221 2,161 2,112 2,084 2,170 2,049 2,008 -2.0

 Electricity 4,173 4,278 4,427 4,529 4,698 4,421 4,769 4,812 0.9

 South

 Natural gas 13,845 13,871 13,930 13,833 13,621 13,820 13,570 13,591 0.2

 Heating oil 1,173 1,107 1,041 948 899 1,034 849 792 -6.7

 Propane 2,619 2,502 2,334 2,200 2,152 2,361 2,062 1,950 -5.4

 Electricity 23,083 23,724 24,431 25,032 25,619 24,378 26,148 26,744 2.3

 West

 Natural gas 14,679 14,844 14,943 14,893 14,819 14,835 14,954 15,089 0.9

 Heating oil 355 336 313 291 287 317 278 266 -4.2

 Propane 1,001 988 934 927 932 956 913 902 -1.2

 Electricity 7,276 7,379 7,579 7,699 7,840 7,555 7,928 8,032 1.3

 U.S. Totals

 Natural gas 56,984 57,317 57,681 57,642 57,270 57,379 57,361 57,623 0.5

 Heating oil 8,824 8,614 8,343 7,949 7,609 8,268 7,321 7,055 -3.6

 Propane 6,627 6,432 6,126 5,946 5,895 6,205 5,765 5,615 -2.6

 Electricity 36,984 37,868 38,963 39,800 40,791 38,881 41,556 42,310 1.8

Heating degree-days

 Northeast 4,744 4,804 4,849 5,252 4,889 4,907 5,257 4,480 -14.8

 Midwest 5,145 5,334 5,620 5,827 5,657 5,517 5,756 4,882 -15.2

 South 2,373 2,401 2,337 2,550 2,930 2,518 2,663 2,216 -16.8

 West 2,919 2,946 3,119 2,920 3,048 2,990 3,016 2,985 -1.0

 U.S. Average 3,586 3,657 3,746 3,904 3,960 3,770 3,950 3,431 -13.1

*** kilowatthour

* Prices include taxes

Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel 

as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). Per 

household consumption based on an average of EIA 2001 and 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and 

projected heating degree-days.

** thousand cubic feet
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Energy Supply

Crude Oil Production (a)

(million barrels per day) .............................. 5.48 5.50 5.55 5.85 5.81 5.84 5.79 5.88 5.89 5.93 5.87 6.00 5.60 5.83 5.92

Dry Natural Gas Production

(billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 60.83 62.75 63.10 65.33 65.01 64.23 64.21 64.63 64.99 65.06 65.01 65.20 63.02 64.52 65.06

Coal Production

(million short tons) ....................................... 274 264 275 277 264 250 264 263 253 257 267 267 1,089 1,041 1,044

Energy Consumption 

Liquid Fuels

(million barrels per day) .............................. 19.09 18.75 18.84 18.68 18.48 18.83 18.91 18.87 18.87 18.85 18.92 18.88 18.84 18.77 18.88

Natural Gas

(billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 83.92 56.61 58.67 68.13 83.87 58.19 59.97 73.47 86.26 57.74 60.34 73.26 66.76 68.86 69.34

Coal (b)

(million short tons) ....................................... 254 242 280 227 237 221 263 241 249 227 263 242 1,003 962 981

Electricity

(billion kilowatt hours per day) .................... 10.57 10.10 11.93 9.69 10.25 10.13 11.76 10.04 10.69 10.23 11.90 10.15 10.57 10.55 10.75

Renewables (c)

(quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 2.06 2.28 2.00 1.99 1.97 2.21 1.96 1.91 2.02 2.20 1.98 1.97 8.33 8.05 8.18

Total Energy Consumption (d)

(quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 25.95 23.18 24.42 24.28 25.58 23.16 24.23 24.78 25.94 23.26 24.34 24.88 97.83 97.74 98.43

Energy Prices

Crude Oil (e)

(dollars per barrel) ....................................... 93.98 108.13 100.61 104.54 111.95 116.25 116.00 114.00 111.75 109.75 110.75 109.75 101.90 114.58 110.49

Natural Gas Wellhead

(dollars per thousand cubic feet) ................. 4.06 4.10 4.10 3.37 2.63 2.68 2.80 3.21 3.44 3.42 3.50 3.65 3.90 2.83 3.51

Coal

(dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.34 2.42 2.46 2.37 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.33 2.37 2.33 2.33 2.28 2.40 2.38 2.33

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 13,228 13,272 13,332 13,422 13,497 13,575 13,634 13,705 13,780 13,871 13,971 14,086 13,313 13,603 13,927

Percent change from prior year ................... 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

(Index, 2005=100) ........................................ 112.4 113.1 113.8 113.9 114.2 114.4 115.0 115.4 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.0 113.3 114.7 116.3

Percent change from prior year ................... 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.4

Real Disposable Personal Income

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 10,183 10,170 10,122 10,141 10,194 10,276 10,319 10,366 10,390 10,431 10,472 10,536 10,154 10,289 10,457

Percent change from prior year ................... 2.6 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.6

Manufacturing Production Index

(Index, 2007=100) ........................................ 90.6 90.8 91.9 92.8 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.4 97.2 98.4 99.4 100.4 91.5 95.4 98.9

Percent change from prior year ................... 6.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.2 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.7

Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days .......................... 2,285 517 77 1,441 1,990 532 97 1,628 2,223 530 98 1,617 4,320 4,247 4,468

U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .......................... 33 432 942 70 33 355 784 78 35 352 791 83 1,477 1,250 1,262

Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy. 

(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.

Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; 

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary 

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.

(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER). 

(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(a) Includes lease condensate.

(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)

 West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ........................... 93.50 102.22 89.72 93.99 102.82 106.00 107.00 107.00 106.00 105.00 106.00 106.00 94.86 105.71 105.75

 Imported Average ............................................................. 94.23 108.72 102.05 105.35 112.73 117.00 116.50 114.50 112.00 110.00 111.00 110.00 102.67 115.21 110.75

 Refiner Average Acquisition Cost .................................... 93.98 108.13 100.61 104.54 111.95 116.25 116.00 114.00 111.75 109.75 110.75 109.75 101.90 114.58 110.49

Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

 Refiner Prices for Resale

 Gasoline ........................................................................ 267 312 297 271 303 327 323 304 302 310 309 295 287 314 304

 Diesel Fuel .................................................................... 286 316 307 304 320 335 337 332 326 326 327 321 303 331 325

 Heating Oil .................................................................... 275 305 295 296 316 331 334 335 327 322 323 321 291 326 324

 Refiner Prices to End Users

 Jet Fuel ......................................................................... 287 322 308 303 321 336 337 333 330 328 328 323 305 332 327

 No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................ 218 246 249 250 255 259 263 265 262 256 258 258 239 260 259

 Retail Prices Including Taxes

 Gasoline Regular Grade (b) .......................................... 329 380 363 337 360 393 392 372 367 377 379 363 353 379 372

 Gasoline All Grades (b) ................................................. 335 385 369 342 366 398 398 378 372 383 385 369 358 385 377

 On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................ 363 401 387 387 397 421 423 419 412 413 413 408 384 415 411

 Heating Oil .................................................................... 359 391 367 366 385 411 408 427 423 415 411 417 367 404 422

Natural Gas

 Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ...... 4.06 4.10 4.10 3.37 2.63 2.68 2.80 3.21 3.44 3.42 3.50 3.65 3.90 2.83 3.51

 Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .......... 4.31 4.50 4.25 3.42 2.70 3.19 3.30 3.87 4.07 3.96 4.02 4.28 4.12 3.26 4.08

 Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) ......................... 4.18 4.37 4.12 3.32 2.62 3.10 3.20 3.76 3.95 3.84 3.90 4.15 4.00 3.17 3.96

 End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 

 Industrial Sector ............................................................ 5.45 5.15 4.94 4.53 4.29 4.10 4.23 5.00 5.36 4.80 4.96 5.49 5.02 4.41 5.17

 Commercial Sector ....................................................... 8.75 9.15 9.69 8.51 7.99 7.99 8.58 8.74 8.65 8.85 9.43 9.38 8.85 8.29 8.99

 Residential Sector ......................................................... 9.96 11.96 15.51 10.44 9.58 11.19 15.30 10.69 10.04 12.01 16.08 11.29 10.79 10.59 11.13

Electricity

 Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

 Coal ............................................................................... 2.34 2.42 2.46 2.37 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.33 2.37 2.33 2.33 2.28 2.40 2.38 2.33

 Natural Gas .................................................................. 5.02 4.92 4.76 4.13 3.43 3.64 3.61 4.30 4.48 4.36 4.27 4.68 4.71 3.73 4.43

 Residual Fuel Oil (c) ...................................................... 15.88 18.29 20.10 19.40 19.33 19.88 19.91 19.73 19.51 19.12 18.97 18.85 18.36 19.74 19.10

 Distillate Fuel Oil ........................................................... 20.79 23.37 22.74 22.99 24.33 25.48 25.69 25.96 25.51 25.48 25.59 25.73 22.42 25.44 25.58

 End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

 Industrial Sector ............................................................ 6.63 6.86 7.36 6.68 6.64 6.86 7.27 6.75 6.68 6.90 7.32 6.79 6.89 6.89 6.93

 Commercial Sector ....................................................... 9.97 10.38 10.76 10.07 9.91 10.34 10.78 10.15 9.99 10.41 10.86 10.22 10.32 10.32 10.39

 Residential Sector ......................................................... 11.19 11.95 12.18 11.82 11.18 12.05 12.31 11.76 11.08 11.95 12.20 11.66 11.79 11.84 11.73

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(a) Average for all sulfur contents.

- = no data available

Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.

(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(b) Average self-service cash price.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)

 OECD ................................................ 21.42 21.07 21.24 22.24 22.23 21.95 21.63 21.94 21.77 21.85 21.78 22.09 21.49 21.94 21.87

 U.S. (50 States) ............................. 9.68 9.87 10.00 10.48 10.25 10.27 10.22 10.33 10.31 10.41 10.34 10.50 10.01 10.27 10.39

 Canada .......................................... 3.67 3.42 3.71 3.80 3.92 3.78 3.73 3.86 3.86 3.90 4.01 4.04 3.65 3.83 3.95

 Mexico ............................................ 2.99 2.98 2.94 2.94 2.92 2.90 2.89 2.87 2.85 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.96 2.89 2.83

 North Sea (b) ................................. 3.61 3.34 3.10 3.43 3.58 3.45 3.23 3.35 3.24 3.18 3.06 3.22 3.37 3.40 3.17

 Other OECD ................................... 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.58 1.55 1.54 1.56 1.52 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.54 1.52

 Non-OECD ........................................ 66.09 65.04 65.72 66.43 66.74 66.35 66.76 67.23 67.72 68.12 68.34 68.65 65.82 66.77 68.21

 OPEC ............................................. 35.50 34.81 35.59 36.21 36.52 35.99 36.15 36.32 36.61 36.78 36.93 37.13 35.53 36.24 36.86

 Crude Oil Portion ........................ 29.78 29.20 29.99 30.42 30.56 30.12 30.25 30.40 30.67 30.82 30.96 31.10 29.85 30.33 30.89

 Other Liquids ............................... 5.72 5.62 5.61 5.79 5.96 5.86 5.90 5.92 5.94 5.96 5.97 6.02 5.68 5.91 5.97

 Former Soviet Union ...................... 13.34 13.35 13.25 13.30 13.43 13.42 13.46 13.42 13.49 13.66 13.66 13.72 13.31 13.43 13.63

 China .............................................. 4.36 4.33 4.22 4.26 4.31 4.41 4.47 4.52 4.48 4.52 4.52 4.53 4.29 4.43 4.51

 Other Non-OECD ........................... 12.88 12.55 12.66 12.66 12.48 12.53 12.68 12.98 13.14 13.17 13.22 13.27 12.69 12.67 13.20

 Total World Supply ............................ 87.50 86.10 86.96 88.67 88.97 88.30 88.38 89.17 89.49 89.97 90.11 90.74 87.31 88.71 90.08

 Non-OPEC Supply ............................ 52.00 51.29 51.37 52.45 52.45 52.31 52.23 52.86 52.88 53.19 53.18 53.61 51.78 52.46 53.22

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)

 OECD ................................................ 46.22 44.49 45.89 45.72 45.72 44.66 45.27 45.83 46.00 44.82 45.42 45.99 45.58 45.37 45.56

 U.S. (50 States) ............................. 19.09 18.75 18.84 18.68 18.48 18.83 18.91 18.87 18.87 18.85 18.92 18.88 18.84 18.77 18.88

 U.S. Territories ............................... 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.32 0.33

 Canada .......................................... 2.25 2.15 2.29 2.21 2.19 2.12 2.23 2.21 2.19 2.12 2.23 2.21 2.23 2.19 2.19

 Europe ............................................ 14.18 14.11 14.69 14.22 14.08 13.88 14.33 14.31 13.99 13.87 14.32 14.30 14.30 14.15 14.13

 Japan ............................................. 4.86 3.92 4.32 4.75 5.11 4.14 4.18 4.58 5.06 4.27 4.30 4.72 4.46 4.50 4.58

 Other OECD ................................... 5.54 5.26 5.45 5.57 5.56 5.37 5.30 5.55 5.56 5.37 5.30 5.55 5.45 5.45 5.45

 Non-OECD ........................................ 41.02 42.61 43.06 42.58 42.57 43.84 44.21 43.75 43.64 45.06 45.46 44.91 42.32 43.59 44.77

 Former Soviet Union ...................... 4.50 4.43 4.69 4.68 4.60 4.50 4.76 4.76 4.67 4.58 4.85 4.85 4.58 4.66 4.74

 Europe ............................................ 0.74 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.75 0.76 0.77

 China .............................................. 9.48 9.99 9.95 9.90 9.86 10.45 10.40 10.35 10.35 10.92 10.87 10.82 9.83 10.27 10.74

 Other Asia ...................................... 10.21 10.40 10.01 10.29 10.43 10.62 10.21 10.50 10.50 10.69 10.28 10.56 10.23 10.44 10.51

 Other Non-OECD ........................... 16.09 17.04 17.65 16.94 16.93 17.52 18.06 17.36 17.37 18.12 18.68 17.90 16.93 17.47 18.02

 Total World Consumption ................. 87.24 87.10 88.95 88.30 88.29 88.50 89.48 89.58 89.63 89.88 90.88 90.90 87.90 88.96 90.33

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)

 U.S. (50 States) ................................ 0.27 -0.42 0.29 0.32 -0.02 -0.34 -0.12 0.49 0.09 -0.44 -0.15 0.50 0.12 0.00 0.00

 Other OECD ...................................... 0.17 -0.08 0.18 -0.18 -0.25 0.20 0.46 -0.03 0.02 0.13 0.34 -0.13 0.02 0.09 0.09

 Other Stock Draws and Balance ...... -0.71 1.50 1.51 -0.51 -0.41 0.34 0.76 -0.05 0.03 0.22 0.58 -0.20 0.45 0.16 0.16

 Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.26 0.99 1.98 -0.36 -0.68 0.20 1.10 0.40 0.14 -0.09 0.77 0.17 0.59 0.26 0.25

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

 U.S. Commercial Inventory .............. 1,043 1,081 1,085 1,056 1,058 1,089 1,100 1,055 1,047 1,087 1,101 1,055 1,056 1,055 1,055

 OECD Commercial Inventory ........... 2,622 2,668 2,655 2,642 2,667 2,679 2,649 2,607 2,597 2,625 2,608 2,574 2,642 2,607 2,574

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.

(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109. 

 Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

 France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, 

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, 

(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

- = no data available

 Monthly OECD supply and consumption does not yet include Chile, Estonia, Israel, or Slovenia.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

North America ................................... 16.35 16.28 16.65 17.23 17.09 16.96 16.84 17.07 17.02 17.15 17.18 17.35 16.63 16.99 17.18

Canada ................................................ 3.67 3.42 3.71 3.80 3.92 3.78 3.73 3.86 3.86 3.90 4.01 4.04 3.65 3.83 3.95

Mexico .................................................. 2.99 2.98 2.94 2.94 2.92 2.90 2.89 2.87 2.85 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.96 2.89 2.83

United States ....................................... 9.68 9.87 10.00 10.48 10.25 10.27 10.22 10.33 10.31 10.41 10.34 10.50 10.01 10.27 10.39

Central and South America ............ 4.80 4.79 4.84 4.95 4.97 5.03 5.07 5.09 5.15 5.19 5.25 5.29 4.85 5.04 5.22

Argentina ............................................. 0.78 0.71 0.78 0.79 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.78

Brazil .................................................... 2.67 2.68 2.67 2.75 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.84 2.89 2.92 2.96 2.99 2.69 2.82 2.94

Colombia .............................................. 0.88 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.93 0.99 1.05

Other Central and S. America ............. 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45

Europe ............................................... 4.54 4.27 4.07 4.39 4.51 4.36 4.14 4.26 4.14 4.07 3.95 4.12 4.31 4.32 4.07

Norway ................................................. 2.10 1.94 1.94 2.03 2.06 2.05 1.91 1.99 1.95 1.95 1.89 1.98 2.01 2.00 1.94

United Kingdom (offshore) .................. 1.23 1.13 0.91 1.16 1.29 1.17 1.09 1.14 1.07 1.02 0.96 1.04 1.11 1.17 1.02

Other North Sea .................................. 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.26 0.23 0.21

Former Soviet Union (FSU) .............. 13.34 13.35 13.25 13.30 13.43 13.42 13.46 13.42 13.49 13.66 13.66 13.72 13.31 13.43 13.63

Azerbaijan ............................................ 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.98 0.98 1.01 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.08 1.06 1.04 0.99 1.06 1.07

Kazakhstan .......................................... 1.67 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.74 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.03 1.64 1.80 1.98

Russia .................................................. 10.22 10.24 10.19 10.25 10.24 10.14 10.03 10.00 9.98 10.15 10.13 10.17 10.23 10.10 10.11

Turkmenistan ....................................... 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.22 0.24 0.27

Other FSU ........................................... 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.45 0.47 0.48

Middle East ........................................ 1.56 1.40 1.44 1.34 1.29 1.35 1.38 1.46 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.44 1.37 1.49

Oman ................................................... 0.89 0.87 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88

Syria ..................................................... 0.38 0.38 0.34 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.25 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.26 0.36

Yemen ................................................. 0.24 0.10 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.20

Asia and Oceania ............................ 8.81 8.63 8.54 8.71 8.81 8.91 8.99 9.03 9.03 9.08 9.13 9.10 8.67 8.94 9.09

Australia ............................................... 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.53 0.48 0.55 0.54

China ................................................... 4.36 4.33 4.22 4.26 4.31 4.41 4.47 4.52 4.48 4.52 4.52 4.53 4.29 4.43 4.51

India ..................................................... 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95

Indonesia ............................................. 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97

Malaysia ............................................... 0.66 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.68 0.61 0.64 0.68

Vietnam ................................................ 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.32 0.36 0.38

Africa .................................................. 2.60 2.58 2.59 2.54 2.35 2.29 2.36 2.53 2.57 2.55 2.53 2.54 2.58 2.38 2.54

Egypt .................................................... 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.65

Equatorial Guinea ................................ 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.32 0.37 0.39

Gabon .................................................. 0.25 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24

Sudan .................................................. 0.47 0.43 0.43 0.38 0.18 0.11 0.17 0.34 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.43 0.20 0.37

Total non-OPEC liquids .................... 52.00 51.29 51.37 52.45 52.45 52.31 52.23 52.86 52.88 53.19 53.18 53.61 51.78 52.46 53.22

OPEC non-crude liquids ................. 5.72 5.62 5.61 5.79 5.96 5.86 5.90 5.92 5.94 5.96 5.97 6.02 5.68 5.91 5.97

Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude ....... 57.72 56.91 56.98 58.25 58.41 58.18 58.13 58.78 58.83 59.15 59.15 59.63 57.46 58.37 59.19

Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.

Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

- = no data available

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Crude Oil

 Algeria .......................................... 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 - - - - - - - - 1.27 - - 

 Angola .......................................... 1.70 1.60 1.70 1.78 - - - - - - - - 1.70 - - 

 Ecudaor ........................................ 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.50 - - - - - - - - 0.50 - - 

 Iran ............................................... 3.70 3.70 3.65 3.58 - - - - - - - - 3.66 - - 

 Iraq ............................................... 2.53 2.53 2.63 2.70 - - - - - - - - 2.60 - - 

 Kuwait ........................................... 2.33 2.50 2.53 2.55 - - - - - - - - 2.48 - - 

 Libya ............................................. 1.09 0.17 0.07 0.55 - - - - - - - - 0.47 - - 

 Nigeria .......................................... 2.13 2.15 2.19 2.03 - - - - - - - - 2.13 - - 

 Qatar ............................................ 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 - - - - - - - - 0.85 - - 

 Saudi Arabia ................................. 9.03 9.13 9.80 9.77 - - - - - - - - 9.44 - - 

 United Arab Emirates .................... 2.43 2.60 2.60 2.63 - - - - - - - - 2.57 - - 

 Venezuela ..................................... 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 - - - - - - - - 2.20 - - 

 OPEC Total ............................... 29.78 29.20 29.99 30.42 30.56 30.12 30.25 30.40 30.67 30.82 30.96 31.10 29.85 30.33 30.89

Other Liquids ................................. 5.72 5.62 5.61 5.79 5.96 5.86 5.90 5.92 5.94 5.96 5.97 6.02 5.68 5.91 5.97

Total OPEC Supply ........................ 35.50 34.81 35.59 36.21 36.52 35.99 36.15 36.32 36.61 36.78 36.93 37.13 35.53 36.24 36.86

Crude Oil Production Capacity

 Africa ............................................ 6.19 5.18 5.22 5.65 6.35 6.69 6.82 6.95 7.15 7.24 7.30 7.37 5.56 - - 

 South America .............................. 2.70 2.70 2.69 2.70 2.69 2.69 2.68 2.68 2.69 2.69 2.68 2.68 2.70 - - 

 Middle East ................................... 24.56 24.58 24.62 24.62 24.20 24.30 24.23 24.21 24.32 24.45 24.58 24.72 24.60 - - 

 OPEC Total ............................... 33.45 32.46 32.54 32.97 33.24 33.67 33.74 33.85 34.16 34.37 34.57 34.77 32.85 33.63 34.47

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

 Africa ............................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 South America .............................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Middle East ................................... 3.67 3.26 2.55 2.53 2.68 3.55 3.48 3.45 3.49 3.55 3.61 3.67 3.00 - - 

 OPEC Total ............................... 3.67 3.26 2.55 2.55 2.68 3.55 3.48 3.45 3.49 3.55 3.61 3.67 3.00 3.29 3.58

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

- = no data available

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United 

Arab Emirates (Middle East).
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 2012 2013

North America ............................................................ 23.40 22.97 23.23 22.99 22.77 23.08 23.24 23.18 23.16 23.10 23.26 23.19 23.14 23.07 23.18

Canada ........................................................................ 2.25 2.15 2.29 2.21 2.19 2.12 2.23 2.21 2.19 2.12 2.23 2.21 2.23 2.19 2.19

Mexico ......................................................................... 2.05 2.06 2.09 2.09 2.10 2.12 2.09 2.10 2.10 2.12 2.09 2.10 2.07 2.10 2.10

United States ............................................................... 19.09 18.75 18.84 18.68 18.48 18.83 18.91 18.87 18.87 18.85 18.92 18.88 18.84 18.77 18.88

Central and South America ..................................... 6.24 6.47 6.49 6.47 6.42 6.66 6.68 6.66 6.65 6.90 6.92 6.90 6.42 6.61 6.84

Brazil ............................................................................ 2.50 2.59 2.65 2.64 2.61 2.71 2.77 2.75 2.71 2.82 2.88 2.86 2.59 2.71 2.82

Europe ....................................................................... 14.92 14.85 15.45 14.99 14.82 14.62 15.10 15.08 14.75 14.63 15.10 15.09 15.05 14.91 14.89

Former Soviet Union .................................................. 4.50 4.43 4.69 4.68 4.60 4.50 4.76 4.76 4.67 4.58 4.85 4.85 4.58 4.66 4.74

Russia .......................................................................... 3.04 2.99 3.17 3.16 3.09 3.03 3.20 3.19 3.10 3.06 3.23 3.23 3.09 3.13 3.15

Middle East ................................................................ 6.78 7.53 8.13 7.39 7.32 7.71 8.26 7.54 7.42 7.95 8.52 7.72 7.46 7.71 7.91

Asia and Oceania ..................................................... 28.05 27.52 27.65 28.43 28.87 28.48 28.02 28.90 29.38 29.14 28.68 29.57 27.92 28.57 29.19

China ........................................................................... 9.48 9.99 9.95 9.90 9.86 10.45 10.40 10.35 10.35 10.92 10.87 10.82 9.83 10.27 10.74

Japan ........................................................................... 4.86 3.92 4.32 4.75 5.11 4.14 4.18 4.58 5.06 4.27 4.30 4.72 4.46 4.50 4.58

India ............................................................................. 3.38 3.37 3.09 3.34 3.48 3.46 3.18 3.43 3.58 3.56 3.27 3.53 3.29 3.39 3.48

Africa .......................................................................... 3.35 3.33 3.30 3.35 3.48 3.44 3.42 3.45 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.59 3.33 3.45 3.58

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption .................. 46.22 44.49 45.89 45.72 45.72 44.66 45.27 45.83 46.00 44.82 45.42 45.99 45.58 45.37 45.56

Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ........... 41.02 42.61 43.06 42.58 42.57 43.84 44.21 43.75 43.64 45.06 45.46 44.91 42.32 43.59 44.77

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ................... 87.24 87.10 88.95 88.30 88.29 88.50 89.48 89.58 89.63 89.88 90.88 90.90 87.90 88.96 90.33

World Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ....................................... 109.5 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.2 113.2 114.2 115.1 116.2 117.3 118.5 119.6 110.4 113.7 117.9

 Percent change from prior year ................................ 3.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.7

OECD Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ....................................... 101.6 101.8 102.3 102.7 102.9 103.4 103.9 104.4 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.0 102.1 103.6 106.0

 Percent change from prior year ................................ 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.5 2.2

Non-OECD Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ............................... 121.7 122.4 123.7 124.9 126.5 128.5 130.3 131.9 133.9 135.9 138.0 139.8 123.2 129.3 136.9

 Percent change from prior year ................................ 5.6 4.7 4.8 4.0 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 4.8 5.0 5.9

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)

Index, January 2007 = 100 .......................................... 95.04 92.82 93.46 96.91 99.31 99.47 98.17 96.91 96.38 95.60 94.99 94.64 94.56 98.46 95.40

Percent change from prior year ................................... -2.5 -7.0 -5.2 1.1 4.5 7.2 5.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.9 -3.2 -2.3 -3.4 4.1 -3.1

Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S. 

dollar.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013

Oil-weighted Real Gross Domestic Product (a)

- = no data available

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, 

 France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, 

 Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Supply (million barrels per day)

 Crude Oil Supply

 Domestic Production (a) ......................................... 5.48 5.50 5.55 5.85 5.81 5.84 5.79 5.88 5.89 5.93 5.87 6.00 5.60 5.83 5.92

 Alaska ................................................................. 0.56 0.58 0.52 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.46 0.53 0.56 0.54 0.52

 Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ................................... 1.45 1.35 1.20 1.27 1.24 1.26 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.22 1.24 1.32 1.23 1.24

 Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ............................... 3.47 3.57 3.83 3.99 3.99 4.04 4.09 4.11 4.10 4.15 4.19 4.23 3.72 4.06 4.17

 Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................ 8.68 8.95 9.07 8.80 8.90 9.03 9.23 8.60 8.66 8.89 9.14 8.41 8.87 8.94 8.77

 SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................ 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00

 Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ................. -0.32 0.05 0.29 0.01 -0.27 0.05 0.12 0.15 -0.28 0.03 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................ 0.40 0.33 0.25 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.07 0.05 0.28 0.10 0.09

 Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................ 14.23 14.81 15.50 14.78 14.57 15.06 15.22 14.67 14.35 14.99 15.21 14.60 14.83 14.88 14.79

 Other Supply

 Refinery Processing Gain ....................................... 1.03 1.06 1.13 1.12 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.06

 Natural Gas Liquids Production ............................. 2.04 2.19 2.18 2.32 2.26 2.24 2.20 2.24 2.21 2.26 2.23 2.26 2.18 2.23 2.24

 Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ........... 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96

 Fuel Ethanol Production ...................................... 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.93

 Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................ 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20

 Product Net Imports (c) .......................................... 0.05 0.02 -0.77 -1.04 -0.74 -0.27 -0.49 -0.60 -0.28 -0.16 -0.48 -0.58 -0.44 -0.53 -0.37

 Pentanes Plus ..................................................... 0.01 0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

 Liquefied Petroleum Gas ..................................... 0.04 -0.08 -0.05 0.02 -0.06 -0.13 -0.08 -0.05 -0.04 -0.09 -0.04 -0.07 -0.02 -0.08 -0.06

 Unfinished Oils .................................................... 0.62 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.67 0.62 0.60 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.62

 Other HC/Oxygenates .......................................... -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.15 -0.07 -0.09 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.12 -0.08 -0.08

 Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .............................. 0.65 0.83 0.59 0.57 0.54 0.70 0.64 0.64 0.59 0.70 0.64 0.62 0.66 0.63 0.64

 Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... -0.30 -0.31 -0.37 -0.52 -0.40 -0.33 -0.37 -0.48 -0.39 -0.32 -0.38 -0.47 -0.37 -0.39 -0.39

 Jet Fuel ................................................................ -0.04 0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.01

 Distillate Fuel Oil ................................................. -0.44 -0.62 -0.75 -0.90 -0.84 -0.58 -0.63 -0.69 -0.54 -0.54 -0.65 -0.65 -0.68 -0.68 -0.60

 Residual Fuel Oil ................................................. 0.02 -0.03 -0.22 -0.08 -0.05 -0.02 -0.18 -0.11 -0.03 -0.04 -0.19 -0.13 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10

 Other Oils (g) ....................................................... -0.39 -0.38 -0.45 -0.50 -0.42 -0.46 -0.46 -0.43 -0.36 -0.43 -0.43 -0.41 -0.43 -0.44 -0.41

 Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................ 0.60 -0.46 -0.33 0.31 0.25 -0.39 -0.25 0.34 0.37 -0.47 -0.28 0.35 0.03 -0.01 -0.01

 Total Supply ............................................................... 19.08 18.75 18.84 18.68 18.51 18.83 18.91 18.87 18.87 18.85 18.92 18.88 18.83 18.78 18.88

Consumption (million barrels per day)

 Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids

 Pentanes Plus ........................................................ 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.10

 Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................ 2.45 1.95 1.98 2.30 2.37 1.97 2.04 2.30 2.44 1.97 2.06 2.31 2.17 2.17 2.19

 Unfinished Oils ....................................................... 0.06 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

 Finished Liquid Fuels

 Motor Gasoline ....................................................... 8.60 8.86 8.87 8.60 8.41 8.82 8.83 8.62 8.43 8.81 8.80 8.60 8.74 8.67 8.66

 Jet Fuel ................................................................... 1.36 1.47 1.48 1.38 1.37 1.46 1.47 1.42 1.40 1.46 1.47 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.44

 Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................... 3.95 3.75 3.78 3.93 3.75 3.82 3.86 4.00 4.05 3.89 3.90 4.04 3.85 3.86 3.97

 Residual Fuel Oil .................................................... 0.60 0.52 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.53 0.39 0.42 0.55 0.51 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.45 0.46

 Other Oils (f) ........................................................... 1.96 2.11 2.26 1.98 1.95 2.14 2.21 1.98 1.91 2.13 2.21 1.99 2.08 2.07 2.06

 Total Consumption .................................................... 19.09 18.75 18.84 18.68 18.48 18.83 18.91 18.87 18.87 18.85 18.92 18.88 18.84 18.77 18.88

Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports ................................ 8.74 8.97 8.29 7.76 8.16 8.76 8.74 8.00 8.38 8.73 8.66 7.83 8.44 8.41 8.40

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

 Commercial Inventory

 Crude Oil (excluding SPR) ..................................... 362.6 358.5 331.8 330.9 355.7 351.4 340.0 326.1 351.6 348.8 337.0 323.7 330.9 326.1 323.7

 Pentanes Plus ........................................................ 10.8 15.3 16.8 17.6 16.2 17.0 17.1 14.2 13.6 15.2 15.9 13.3 17.6 14.2 13.3

 Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................ 68.7 105.3 132.5 111.1 88.5 121.5 143.9 108.6 77.0 117.1 143.7 108.6 111.1 108.6 108.6

 Unfinished Oils ....................................................... 87.4 91.9 89.1 79.1 88.3 86.8 85.7 80.2 89.3 87.3 85.6 79.6 79.1 80.2 79.6

 Other HC/Oxygenates ............................................. 23.2 21.2 20.7 21.3 25.6 24.9 25.4 24.7 26.0 25.3 25.8 25.1 21.3 24.7 25.1

 Total Motor Gasoline .............................................. 214.9 215.2 216.1 224.3 219.6 216.4 214.4 226.0 223.6 219.2 216.7 226.4 224.3 226.0 226.4

 Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... 60.8 56.4 57.1 61.4 56.0 57.7 57.2 58.2 55.8 57.0 56.4 58.1 61.4 58.2 58.1

 Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .............................. 154.1 158.8 159.0 162.8 163.6 158.7 157.2 167.8 167.8 162.3 160.4 168.4 162.8 167.8 168.4

 Jet Fuel ................................................................... 40.0 42.3 46.0 41.7 42.1 42.7 43.7 41.4 41.7 42.6 43.9 41.8 41.7 41.4 41.8

 Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................... 148.5 143.7 153.7 149.7 131.7 139.5 149.6 151.2 133.6 142.9 152.6 154.4 149.7 151.2 154.4

 Residual Fuel Oil .................................................... 37.1 37.4 34.6 34.1 34.9 36.6 35.6 37.5 36.6 37.2 35.7 37.4 34.1 37.5 37.4

 Other Oils (f) ........................................................... 49.6 50.5 43.8 45.8 55.0 52.0 44.6 45.4 54.3 51.4 44.2 45.0 45.8 45.4 45.0

 Total Commercial Inventory ....................................... 1,043 1,081 1,085 1,056 1,058 1,089 1,100 1,055 1,047 1,087 1,101 1,055 1,056 1,055 1,055

 Crude Oil in SPR ....................................................... 727 727 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696

 Heating Oil Reserve .................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.

(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."

(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.

Year

(a) Includes lease condensate.

(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

- = no data available

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

HC: Hydrocarbons

Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. 

(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve

(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still 

gas, and miscellaneous products.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs

 Crude OIl ............................................................ 14.23 14.81 15.50 14.78 14.57 15.06 15.22 14.67 14.35 14.99 15.21 14.60 14.83 14.88 14.79

 Pentanes Plus ..................................................... 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17

 Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................... 0.34 0.26 0.27 0.39 0.34 0.26 0.27 0.39 0.33 0.26 0.26 0.39 0.32 0.31 0.31

 Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates ....................... 0.96 1.01 1.04 1.03 0.98 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.08 1.01 1.03 1.07

 Unfinished Oils .................................................... 0.48 0.63 0.66 0.74 0.47 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.49 0.65 0.69 0.67 0.63 0.62 0.62

 Motor Gasoline Blend Components .................... 0.60 0.82 0.54 0.44 0.50 0.74 0.64 0.52 0.56 0.75 0.65 0.53 0.60 0.60 0.62

 Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ................... 16.78 17.72 18.18 17.55 17.02 17.91 18.02 17.48 16.96 17.90 18.05 17.44 17.56 17.61 17.59

Refinery Processing Gain ................................. 1.03 1.06 1.13 1.12 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.06

Refinery and Blender Net Production

 Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................... 0.52 0.81 0.74 0.42 0.53 0.79 0.73 0.41 0.52 0.80 0.74 0.41 0.62 0.62 0.62

 Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... 8.76 9.12 9.19 9.06 8.71 9.11 9.14 9.07 8.74 9.10 9.14 9.05 9.03 9.01 9.01

 Jet Fuel ............................................................... 1.37 1.49 1.55 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.49 1.40 1.40 1.45 1.48 1.39 1.45 1.44 1.43

 Distillate Fuel ...................................................... 4.21 4.31 4.63 4.78 4.40 4.48 4.60 4.71 4.40 4.53 4.65 4.71 4.49 4.55 4.58

 Residual Fuel ...................................................... 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.51 0.53 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.55 0.56

 Other Oils (a) ...................................................... 2.41 2.50 2.64 2.51 2.48 2.56 2.58 2.42 2.37 2.52 2.56 2.40 2.51 2.51 2.47

Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ........... 17.80 18.78 19.31 18.67 18.07 18.97 19.10 18.55 18.00 18.95 19.13 18.51 18.64 18.67 18.65

Refinery Distillation Inputs ............................... 14.69 15.22 15.93 15.27 14.83 15.33 15.53 15.03 14.69 15.30 15.54 14.96 15.28 15.18 15.12

Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity .......... 17.70 17.74 17.74 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73 17.73

Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor .............. 0.83 0.86 0.90 0.86 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.86 0.88 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.85

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still 

gas, and miscellaneous products.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; 

- = no data available

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Prices (cents per gallon)

 Refiner Wholesale Price ....................... 267 312 297 271 303 327 323 304 302 310 309 295 287 314 304

 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes

 PADD 1 .............................................. 329 377 364 337 364 393 391 373 368 376 378 364 352 380 372

 PADD 2 .............................................. 326 380 364 329 351 388 387 364 361 372 374 355 350 373 366

 PADD 3 .............................................. 314 365 349 317 344 379 376 355 351 363 363 347 336 364 356

 PADD 4 .............................................. 311 365 355 337 319 379 386 365 354 369 375 358 342 363 364

 PADD 5 .............................................. 353 400 377 368 388 417 417 400 390 400 405 389 375 406 396

 U.S. Average ................................... 329 380 363 337 360 393 392 372 367 377 379 363 353 379 372

 Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 335 385 369 342 366 398 398 378 372 383 385 369 358 385 377

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

 Total Gasoline Inventories

 PADD 1 .............................................. 55.0 55.1 56.4 59.1 57.7 57.1 56.7 61.2 59.1 58.8 57.4 61.9 59.1 61.2 61.9

 PADD 2 .............................................. 50.5 49.5 49.9 52.1 51.5 50.9 50.0 50.6 51.2 50.7 50.0 50.8 52.1 50.6 50.8

 PADD 3 .............................................. 70.3 73.5 75.0 75.8 74.8 73.9 73.5 76.8 76.7 74.9 74.4 78.1 75.8 76.8 78.1

 PADD 4 .............................................. 6.5 6.6 5.9 7.6 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.6 6.7 6.7

 PADD 5 .............................................. 32.7 30.4 28.9 29.6 29.0 28.3 27.9 30.6 30.0 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.6 30.6 29.0

 U.S. Total ........................................ 214.9 215.2 216.1 224.3 219.6 216.4 214.4 226.0 223.6 219.2 216.7 226.4 224.3 226.0 226.4

 Finished Gasoline Inventories

 U.S. Total ........................................ 60.8 56.4 57.1 61.4 56.0 57.7 57.2 58.2 55.8 57.0 56.4 58.1 61.4 58.2 58.1

 Gasoline Blending Components Inventories

 U.S. Total ........................................ 154.1 158.8 159.0 162.8 163.6 158.7 157.2 167.8 167.8 162.3 160.4 168.4 162.8 167.8 168.4

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

2013 Year

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).

See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; 

Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)

 Total Marketed Production ............ 63.83 65.96 66.30 68.75 68.42 67.60 67.58 68.03 68.40 68.47 68.43 68.62 66.22 67.91 68.48

 Alaska ...................................... 1.12 1.00 0.86 1.02 1.07 0.93 0.97 0.96 1.00 0.90 0.96 0.95 1.00 0.98 0.95

 Federal GOM (a) ....................... 5.60 5.23 4.54 4.57 4.74 4.51 4.19 4.20 4.42 4.39 4.25 4.35 4.98 4.41 4.35

 Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ..... 57.10 59.73 60.90 63.16 62.61 62.16 62.42 62.87 62.98 63.18 63.22 63.32 60.24 62.52 63.18

 Total Dry Gas Production ............. 60.83 62.75 63.10 65.33 65.01 64.23 64.21 64.63 64.99 65.06 65.01 65.20 63.02 64.52 65.06

 Gross Imports .............................. 11.04 8.95 8.97 8.98 9.40 8.10 8.60 8.32 9.83 8.31 8.68 8.35 9.48 8.61 8.79

 Pipeline .................................... 9.80 7.90 8.20 8.20 8.61 7.37 8.02 7.68 9.04 7.58 8.10 7.71 8.52 7.92 8.10

 LNG .......................................... 1.23 1.05 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.74 0.58 0.64 0.79 0.74 0.58 0.64 0.96 0.69 0.69

 Gross Exports .............................. 4.51 4.16 3.82 4.04 4.69 4.31 4.09 4.37 4.75 4.40 4.22 4.53 4.13 4.36 4.47

 Net Imports .................................. 6.53 4.79 5.15 4.94 4.71 3.80 4.51 3.95 5.08 3.92 4.45 3.82 5.35 4.24 4.31

 Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ...... 0.19 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.18

 Net Inventory Withdrawals ........... 16.98 -10.45 -9.63 -0.51 13.13 -9.19 -7.85 4.63 15.93 -11.12 -8.90 4.09 -0.97 0.17 -0.06

Total Supply .................................... 84.53 57.23 58.78 69.95 83.04 58.99 61.05 73.40 86.18 58.01 60.74 73.30 67.56 69.11 69.50

Balancing Item (b) .......................... -0.62 -0.62 -0.12 -1.81 0.84 -0.80 -1.07 0.06 0.08 -0.27 -0.39 -0.04 -0.80 -0.24 -0.16

Total Primary Supply ....................... 83.92 56.61 58.67 68.13 83.87 58.19 59.97 73.47 86.26 57.74 60.34 73.26 66.76 68.86 69.34

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

 Residential ................................... 26.14 7.58 3.73 14.66 23.46 7.00 3.74 17.45 25.60 7.00 3.74 17.49 12.97 12.90 13.41

 Commercial ................................. 14.76 5.90 4.35 9.74 13.99 5.74 4.10 10.80 14.76 5.75 4.13 10.85 8.66 8.65 8.85

 Industrial ...................................... 20.17 17.79 17.31 18.94 20.10 17.90 17.62 19.29 20.70 18.11 17.84 19.53 18.55 18.73 19.04

 Electric Power (c) ......................... 16.75 19.88 27.74 18.85 19.80 21.97 28.91 19.92 18.66 21.24 28.93 19.35 20.83 22.66 22.07

 Lease and Plant Fuel ................... 3.65 3.78 3.79 3.94 3.92 3.87 3.87 3.89 3.91 3.92 3.92 3.93 3.79 3.89 3.92

 Pipeline and Distribution Use ....... 2.36 1.59 1.65 1.92 2.50 1.62 1.63 2.02 2.53 1.63 1.69 2.01 1.88 1.94 1.96

 Vehicle Use ................................. 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10

Total Consumption .......................... 83.92 56.61 58.67 68.13 83.87 58.19 59.97 73.47 86.26 57.74 60.34 73.26 66.76 68.86 69.34

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)

 Working Gas Inventory ................ 1,581 2,530 3,416 3,462 2,268 3,104 3,826 3,400 1,967 2,979 3,798 3,421 3,462 3,400 3,421

 Producing Region (d) ................ 738 992 1,070 1,193 957 1,152 1,237 1,164 845 1,110 1,227 1,179 1,193 1,164 1,179

 East Consuming Region (d) ...... 618 1,188 1,879 1,822 959 1,480 2,056 1,773 827 1,432 2,054 1,779 1,822 1,773 1,779

 West Consuming Region (d) ..... 225 350 468 447 352 472 533 463 295 436 517 464 447 463 464

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly , 

DOE/EIA-0226.

LNG: liquefied natural gas.

- = no data available

(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer to Methodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).

(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.

(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.

(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Wholesale/Spot

 U.S. Average Wellhead ...... 4.06 4.10 4.10 3.37 2.63 2.68 2.80 3.21 3.44 3.42 3.50 3.65 3.90 2.83 3.51

 Henry Hub Spot Price ........ 4.31 4.50 4.25 3.42 2.70 3.19 3.30 3.87 4.07 3.96 4.02 4.28 4.12 3.26 4.08

Residential

 New England ..................... 13.99 14.30 17.26 13.08 12.51 13.45 16.60 13.57 13.44 14.64 17.77 14.58 14.05 13.34 14.29

 Middle Atlantic ................... 11.84 14.11 18.14 12.66 11.13 12.47 16.89 12.98 11.76 13.42 17.69 13.79 12.83 12.33 12.99

 E. N. Central ...................... 8.87 10.95 16.23 9.31 8.30 9.98 15.51 9.20 8.72 10.98 16.50 9.71 9.76 9.29 9.79

 W. N. Central ..................... 8.83 11.17 16.78 9.51 8.67 10.48 16.09 9.12 8.63 10.98 17.06 9.76 9.80 9.52 9.74

 S. Atlantic .......................... 11.97 17.54 22.72 13.51 12.30 16.86 22.60 13.28 12.39 17.85 24.00 14.19 13.77 13.88 14.30

 E. S. Central ...................... 9.92 13.70 18.42 11.11 10.04 12.89 17.60 11.20 10.70 14.30 19.16 11.49 11.13 11.21 11.77

 W. S. Central ..................... 8.60 14.31 19.03 10.16 8.14 12.57 17.80 10.04 8.73 13.72 18.95 10.86 10.47 10.12 10.71

 Mountain ............................ 8.88 9.77 13.32 8.84 8.49 9.37 12.97 9.07 8.86 9.53 12.80 9.05 9.34 9.17 9.33

 Pacific ................................ 9.97 10.91 11.63 9.92 9.09 9.63 10.56 9.62 9.83 10.17 11.07 10.13 10.34 9.53 10.13

 U.S. Average .................. 9.96 11.96 15.51 10.44 9.58 11.19 15.30 10.69 10.04 12.01 16.08 11.29 10.79 10.59 11.13

Commercial

 New England ..................... 11.16 10.64 10.43 10.45 10.47 10.37 10.83 11.31 11.36 11.12 11.48 11.86 10.83 10.72 11.46

 Middle Atlantic ................... 9.84 9.62 8.99 9.27 8.57 8.21 8.20 9.51 9.49 9.45 9.24 10.18 9.55 8.73 9.64

 E. N. Central ...................... 8.35 8.98 9.85 7.88 7.58 7.96 8.48 8.14 8.16 8.82 9.37 8.85 8.45 7.89 8.55

 W. N. Central ..................... 7.92 8.44 9.49 7.61 6.92 6.97 8.50 7.23 7.55 7.79 9.25 7.73 8.05 7.15 7.77

 S. Atlantic .......................... 9.80 10.85 11.00 9.79 8.85 9.27 9.84 10.18 9.92 10.45 10.84 10.94 10.12 9.45 10.42

 E. S. Central ...................... 8.82 9.59 10.39 9.24 8.75 9.01 9.69 9.67 9.15 9.89 10.57 10.44 9.22 9.16 9.75

 W. S. Central ..................... 7.30 8.54 8.92 7.43 6.72 7.23 8.20 7.97 7.43 8.07 8.97 8.54 7.78 7.35 8.04

 Mountain ............................ 8.00 8.00 8.91 7.71 7.08 6.63 7.64 7.49 7.28 7.15 8.26 8.09 8.01 7.17 7.59

 Pacific ................................ 9.13 9.19 9.75 8.88 8.19 7.64 7.92 8.48 8.53 8.05 8.66 9.04 9.17 8.11 8.59

 U.S. Average .................. 8.75 9.15 9.69 8.51 7.99 7.99 8.58 8.74 8.65 8.85 9.43 9.38 8.85 8.29 8.99

Industrial

 New England ..................... 10.67 9.82 9.20 9.21 9.29 8.75 8.55 9.93 10.78 9.85 9.49 10.60 9.84 9.24 10.33

 Middle Atlantic ................... 9.58 9.28 8.88 9.24 8.40 7.57 8.03 9.94 9.82 8.63 8.74 10.50 9.36 8.57 9.62

 E. N. Central ...................... 7.39 7.19 7.28 6.64 6.42 6.13 6.37 6.95 7.32 6.81 6.98 7.47 7.15 6.51 7.23

 W. N. Central ..................... 6.27 5.77 5.55 5.54 5.02 4.43 4.52 5.37 6.02 4.94 5.08 5.80 5.81 4.88 5.53

 S. Atlantic .......................... 6.53 6.23 6.07 5.71 5.34 5.06 5.31 6.12 6.39 5.90 6.15 6.76 6.15 5.46 6.32

 E. S. Central ...................... 5.84 5.58 5.47 5.10 5.08 4.74 5.07 5.82 5.96 5.45 5.79 6.29 5.51 5.19 5.90

 W. S. Central ..................... 4.29 4.51 4.39 3.64 3.03 3.48 3.66 4.01 4.05 4.15 4.40 4.50 4.21 3.54 4.27

 Mountain ............................ 6.82 6.43 6.80 6.28 5.97 5.14 5.53 6.35 6.56 5.85 6.50 7.18 6.57 5.82 6.58

 Pacific ................................ 7.45 7.21 7.21 6.85 5.97 5.43 5.85 6.92 7.28 6.54 6.89 7.66 7.18 6.07 7.13

 U.S. Average .................. 5.45 5.15 4.94 4.53 4.29 4.10 4.23 5.00 5.36 4.80 4.96 5.49 5.02 4.41 5.17

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Supply (million short tons)

 Production ........................................ 273.6 263.6 274.6 277.3 264.2 250.1 264.4 262.6 253.3 256.9 266.9 266.8 1089.2 1041.3 1044.0

 Appalachia .................................... 87.3 85.7 81.8 83.8 81.9 77.1 81.5 81.1 78.3 80.2 78.2 78.0 338.6 321.6 314.7

 Interior .......................................... 41.5 41.1 45.0 38.7 39.3 35.8 35.8 36.1 35.3 36.5 37.0 36.3 166.3 147.0 145.1

 Western ........................................ 144.8 136.8 147.8 154.9 143.0 137.3 147.1 145.4 139.7 140.3 151.7 152.5 584.3 572.7 584.2

 Primary Inventory Withdrawals .......... 5.5 -1.1 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.5 3.8 -0.2 5.5 -1.1 1.6 -2.6 7.9 4.5 3.5

 Imports ............................................ 3.4 3.4 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.6 4.4 4.0 13.1 14.5 15.7

 Exports ............................................ 26.6 27.0 26.0 27.7 24.7 25.0 24.9 24.1 23.8 25.2 24.9 24.6 107.3 98.7 98.5

 Metallurgical Coal .......................... 17.2 17.8 16.5 19.3 17.7 17.2 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.4 16.8 16.3 70.8 67.0 67.0

 Steam Coal ................................... 9.5 9.1 9.5 8.3 6.9 7.8 9.0 7.9 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.3 36.4 31.7 31.6

Total Primary Supply ........................... 255.9 239.0 253.9 254.2 242.7 228.9 247.7 242.3 238.6 234.3 248.1 243.6 1002.9 961.6 964.6

 Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ..... 9.0 0.5 21.3 -29.7 -2.6 -10.9 11.8 -4.8 6.7 -10.7 12.0 -5.0 1.1 -6.4 3.0

 Waste Coal (a) ................................. 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 12.7 13.0 12.9

Total Supply ........................................ 268.2 242.4 278.6 227.7 243.4 221.3 262.7 240.7 248.7 226.8 263.2 241.9 1016.8 968.1 980.6

Consumption (million short tons)

 Coke Plants ..................................... 5.2 5.4 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.4 7.0 6.5 22.3 26.1 26.6

 Electric Power Sector (b) .................. 234.8 223.5 261.5 208.6 218.0 202.0 243.2 220.6 228.4 207.2 243.6 221.7 928.6 883.9 900.9

 Retail and Other Industry .................. 14.4 13.3 12.7 12.0 12.8 13.0 12.5 13.5 13.7 13.3 12.6 13.6 52.4 51.9 53.1

 Residential and Commercial .......... 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2 2.9 3.6 4.1

 Other Industrial ............................. 13.3 12.7 12.2 11.3 12.0 12.3 11.7 12.3 12.4 12.4 11.8 12.4 49.5 48.3 49.0

Total Consumption ............................. 254.4 242.2 279.6 227.0 237.3 221.3 262.7 240.7 248.7 226.8 263.2 241.9 1003.2 961.9 980.6

Discrepancy (c) 13.8 0.1 -1.1 0.7 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 6.2 0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)

 Primary Inventories (d) ...................... 44.3 45.4 43.8 41.9 41.5 41.0 37.2 37.4 32.0 33.0 31.4 34.0 41.9 37.4 34.0

 Secondary Inventories ...................... 174.7 174.3 153.0 182.6 185.3 196.1 184.3 189.1 182.4 193.0 181.1 186.0 182.6 189.1 186.0

 Electric Power Sector .................... 166.7 165.7 144.4 175.1 178.6 188.8 176.4 180.9 175.1 185.2 172.7 177.4 175.1 180.9 177.4

 Retail and General Industry ........... 5.5 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.4 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.7 4.9 5.4 5.7

 Coke Plants .................................. 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3

Coal Market Indicators

 Coal Miner Productivity

 (Tons per hour) ............................. 5.22 5.22 5.22 5.22 5.12 5.12 5.12 5.12 4.97 4.97 4.97 4.97 5.22 5.12 4.97

 Total Raw Steel Production

 (Million short tons per day) ............ 0.257 0.261 0.266 0.264 0.279 0.293 0.274 0.257 0.270 0.282 0.267 0.253 0.262 0.276 0.268

 Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities

 (Dollars per million Btu) ................. 2.34 2.42 2.46 2.37 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.33 2.37 2.33 2.33 2.28 2.40 2.38 2.33

(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly , 

DOE/EIA-0226.

(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.

(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.

(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

- = no data available
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)

 Electricity Generation .................... 11.07 10.94 12.65 10.33 10.77 10.94 12.43 10.71 11.20 11.06 12.58 10.82 11.25 11.21 11.42

 Electric Power Sector (a) ............ 10.66 10.54 12.22 9.92 10.34 10.53 11.99 10.29 10.78 10.65 12.14 10.40 10.84 10.79 10.99

 Industrial Sector ......................... 0.39 0.38 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.42 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.40

 Commercial Sector ..................... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Net Imports ................................. 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.08

 Total Supply .................................. 11.15 11.04 12.78 10.41 10.84 11.02 12.54 10.78 11.27 11.13 12.68 10.89 11.35 11.30 11.50

 Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ... 0.59 0.94 0.85 0.72 0.59 0.89 0.78 0.74 0.58 0.90 0.79 0.73 0.78 0.75 0.75

Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)

 Retail Sales .................................. 10.21 9.74 11.55 9.33 9.88 9.76 11.37 9.68 10.32 9.87 11.51 9.79 10.21 10.17 10.37

 Residential Sector ...................... 4.12 3.49 4.69 3.30 3.88 3.42 4.46 3.51 4.13 3.47 4.54 3.57 3.90 3.82 3.93

 Commercial Sector ..................... 3.45 3.56 4.05 3.39 3.42 3.60 4.06 3.48 3.52 3.64 4.11 3.52 3.61 3.64 3.70

 Industrial Sector ......................... 2.61 2.67 2.79 2.62 2.56 2.73 2.82 2.67 2.65 2.74 2.84 2.68 2.67 2.69 2.73

 Transportation Sector ................. 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Direct Use (c) ................................ 0.36 0.36 0.38 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.37

 Total Consumption ....................... 10.57 10.10 11.93 9.69 10.25 10.13 11.76 10.04 10.69 10.23 11.90 10.15 10.57 10.55 10.75

Prices

 Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

 Coal ........................................... 2.34 2.42 2.46 2.37 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.33 2.37 2.33 2.33 2.28 2.40 2.38 2.33

 Natural Gas ............................... 5.02 4.92 4.76 4.13 3.43 3.64 3.61 4.30 4.48 4.36 4.27 4.68 4.71 3.73 4.43

 Residual Fuel Oil ........................ 15.88 18.29 20.10 19.40 19.33 19.88 19.91 19.73 19.51 19.12 18.97 18.85 18.36 19.74 19.10

 Distillate Fuel Oil ........................ 20.79 23.37 22.74 22.99 24.33 25.48 25.69 25.96 25.51 25.48 25.59 25.73 22.42 25.44 25.58

 End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

 Residential Sector ...................... 11.19 11.95 12.18 11.82 11.18 12.05 12.31 11.76 11.08 11.95 12.20 11.66 11.79 11.84 11.73

 Commercial Sector ..................... 9.97 10.38 10.76 10.07 9.91 10.34 10.78 10.15 9.99 10.41 10.86 10.22 10.32 10.32 10.39

 Industrial Sector ......................... 6.63 6.86 7.36 6.68 6.64 6.86 7.27 6.75 6.68 6.90 7.32 6.79 6.89 6.89 6.93

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011

(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.

(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.

2012 2013 Year

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power 

Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.

(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities 

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Residential Sector

 New England ............... 144 115 143 116 137 114 138 126 144 114 140 127 130 128 131

 Middle Atlantic ............. 402 328 437 318 384 332 416 342 409 336 417 345 371 369 377

 E. N. Central ................ 575 455 608 457 553 456 566 488 580 466 577 497 524 516 530

 W. N. Central ............... 332 251 334 251 315 255 315 273 336 260 319 278 292 289 298

 S. Atlantic ..................... 1,033 907 1,192 803 964 863 1,142 870 1,035 876 1,165 886 984 960 991

 E. S. Central ................ 372 296 408 261 335 284 401 291 369 292 405 293 334 328 340

 W. S. Central ............... 558 550 820 467 499 505 744 478 546 510 756 488 599 557 575

 Mountain ...................... 248 228 334 229 245 238 334 236 254 242 342 241 260 263 270

 Pacific contiguous ....... 438 350 401 385 432 356 394 392 442 361 405 397 393 393 401

 AK and HI ..................... 15 13 13 14 15 13 13 14 15 13 13 14 14 14 14

 Total .......................... 4,118 3,493 4,689 3,302 3,878 3,417 4,463 3,509 4,130 3,470 4,540 3,567 3,901 3,818 3,927

Commercial Sector

 New England ............... 123 119 133 115 118 120 134 119 125 120 135 119 123 123 125

 Middle Atlantic ............. 435 421 482 406 428 427 487 420 439 424 484 418 436 441 442

 E. N. Central ................ 496 484 551 473 491 495 547 484 504 501 553 490 501 504 512

 W. N. Central ............... 269 262 297 258 265 268 301 265 272 270 303 267 272 275 278

 S. Atlantic ..................... 784 856 942 773 787 859 960 812 813 872 974 824 839 855 871

 E. S. Central ................ 217 227 265 206 212 228 266 214 220 230 268 216 229 230 234

 W. S. Central ............... 443 500 595 456 440 497 582 465 455 503 589 471 499 496 504

 Mountain ...................... 238 249 287 243 238 252 287 245 242 257 293 249 254 256 260

 Pacific contiguous ....... 430 429 482 438 420 434 482 440 430 440 489 446 445 444 451

 AK and HI ..................... 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 17 18 18 17 17 18

 Total .......................... 3,453 3,564 4,052 3,386 3,418 3,597 4,063 3,481 3,517 3,635 4,106 3,518 3,614 3,640 3,695

Industrial Sector

 New England ............... 75 76 81 73 72 75 79 74 73 74 78 73 76 75 75

 Middle Atlantic ............. 199 192 196 187 188 194 198 188 193 196 201 190 194 192 195

 E. N. Central ................ 540 541 567 536 519 552 563 540 542 550 561 538 546 544 548

 W. N. Central ............... 232 236 253 237 230 243 257 245 238 244 259 246 240 244 247

 S. Atlantic ..................... 370 394 401 373 359 396 402 375 374 397 403 376 384 383 388

 E. S. Central ................ 342 320 336 336 341 338 343 349 352 344 349 355 334 342 350

 W. S. Central ............... 415 441 456 422 416 451 469 431 425 453 471 433 434 442 446

 Mountain ...................... 204 219 239 215 206 227 244 217 212 230 248 221 219 224 228

 Pacific contiguous ....... 221 233 247 228 215 237 254 233 223 237 254 232 232 235 237

 AK and HI ..................... 14 13 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

 Total .......................... 2,612 2,666 2,791 2,620 2,559 2,727 2,823 2,666 2,646 2,740 2,837 2,679 2,673 2,694 2,726

Total All Sectors (a)

 New England ............... 344 311 359 307 328 310 353 320 344 311 354 320 330 328 332

 Middle Atlantic ............. 1,048 952 1,126 921 1,013 965 1,114 963 1,055 970 1,116 967 1,012 1,014 1,027

 E. N. Central ................ 1,613 1,482 1,728 1,468 1,565 1,505 1,677 1,514 1,628 1,519 1,693 1,526 1,573 1,565 1,591

 W. N. Central ............... 834 749 884 746 810 767 873 783 846 774 880 792 803 808 823

 S. Atlantic ..................... 2,191 2,161 2,539 1,952 2,114 2,121 2,507 2,061 2,226 2,149 2,546 2,090 2,211 2,201 2,253

 E. S. Central ................ 931 844 1,009 803 888 851 1,009 853 941 866 1,022 864 897 900 923

 W. S. Central ............... 1,417 1,491 1,871 1,346 1,356 1,452 1,795 1,374 1,426 1,466 1,816 1,391 1,532 1,495 1,526

 Mountain ...................... 691 696 860 687 689 718 865 698 708 729 883 712 734 743 758

 Pacific contiguous ....... 1,090 1,015 1,132 1,054 1,069 1,029 1,133 1,067 1,097 1,040 1,151 1,078 1,073 1,075 1,092

 AK and HI ..................... 46 43 44 45 46 44 45 46 47 44 45 46 45 45 46

 Total .......................... 10,206 9,743 11,553 9,328 9,878 9,762 11,372 9,678 10,317 9,868 11,506 9,787 10,209 10,174 10,371

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.

Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers. 

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power 

Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

- = no data available

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Residential Sector

 New England ............... 15.94 16.10 15.94 15.94 16.34 16.55 16.32 16.24 16.17 16.38 16.16 16.07 15.98 16.36 16.19

 Middle Atlantic ............. 15.16 15.98 16.48 15.76 14.97 16.26 17.10 15.68 15.22 16.56 17.42 15.97 15.86 16.03 16.31

 E. N. Central ............... 10.98 12.04 12.20 11.93 10.92 12.10 12.16 11.73 10.63 11.77 11.83 11.40 11.78 11.72 11.39

 W. N. Central .............. 9.01 10.52 11.16 9.80 8.81 10.36 10.88 9.56 8.67 10.20 10.70 9.41 10.13 9.89 9.72

 S. Atlantic .................... 10.73 11.43 11.62 11.23 10.88 11.63 11.93 11.48 10.76 11.51 11.81 11.36 11.26 11.50 11.37

 E. S. Central ................ 9.60 10.21 10.23 10.51 9.61 10.45 10.48 10.50 9.40 10.21 10.24 10.27 10.11 10.26 10.02

 W. S. Central .............. 10.01 10.76 10.79 10.52 10.11 10.79 10.78 10.34 9.97 10.65 10.66 10.23 10.55 10.54 10.40

 Mountain ..................... 9.75 10.83 11.23 10.21 9.42 10.50 10.92 9.92 9.42 10.50 10.93 9.93 10.57 10.25 10.26

 Pacific ......................... 12.18 12.53 13.70 12.55 11.82 12.31 13.53 12.17 11.86 12.34 13.56 12.20 12.74 12.45 12.48

 U.S. Average ............ 11.19 11.95 12.18 11.82 11.18 12.05 12.31 11.76 11.08 11.95 12.20 11.66 11.79 11.84 11.73

Commercial Sector

 New England ............... 14.38 14.37 14.49 14.06 14.54 14.60 14.75 14.30 14.57 14.62 14.79 14.35 14.33 14.56 14.59

 Middle Atlantic ............. 13.23 13.76 14.52 13.00 12.75 13.47 14.41 12.94 13.03 13.79 14.75 13.25 13.66 13.43 13.74

 E. N. Central ............... 9.30 9.62 9.63 9.34 9.35 9.64 9.76 9.51 9.46 9.75 9.87 9.62 9.48 9.57 9.68

 W. N. Central .............. 7.60 8.47 8.96 7.77 7.58 8.44 9.00 7.84 7.72 8.60 9.17 7.99 8.23 8.24 8.40

 S. Atlantic .................... 9.40 9.51 9.62 9.53 9.53 9.64 9.85 9.74 9.51 9.62 9.83 9.72 9.52 9.70 9.68

 E. S. Central ................ 9.54 9.73 9.81 9.80 9.23 9.49 9.65 9.69 9.12 9.37 9.52 9.57 9.72 9.52 9.40

 W. S. Central .............. 8.55 8.65 8.90 8.43 8.61 8.67 8.78 8.42 8.89 8.98 9.10 8.74 8.65 8.63 8.94

 Mountain ..................... 8.25 9.01 9.29 8.66 8.20 8.94 9.20 8.59 8.26 9.01 9.28 8.66 8.83 8.76 8.83

 Pacific ......................... 10.89 12.29 13.71 11.46 10.68 12.01 13.52 11.44 10.54 11.83 13.30 11.25 12.14 11.96 11.78

 U.S. Average ............ 9.97 10.38 10.76 10.07 9.91 10.34 10.78 10.15 9.99 10.41 10.86 10.22 10.32 10.32 10.39

Industrial Sector

 New England ............... 12.67 12.61 12.99 12.41 13.19 12.88 13.24 12.84 13.28 12.95 13.33 12.93 12.68 13.04 13.12

 Middle Atlantic ............. 8.46 8.21 8.34 7.67 8.30 8.43 8.62 8.08 8.46 8.58 8.78 8.22 8.17 8.36 8.51

 E. N. Central ............... 6.45 6.56 6.78 6.54 6.55 6.70 6.93 6.64 6.49 6.63 6.85 6.57 6.59 6.71 6.64

 W. N. Central .............. 5.77 6.13 6.64 5.78 5.80 6.17 6.76 5.88 5.81 6.18 6.76 5.89 6.09 6.17 6.17

 S. Atlantic .................... 6.52 6.76 7.11 6.57 6.68 6.87 7.32 6.93 6.64 6.82 7.27 6.88 6.75 6.96 6.91

 E. S. Central ................ 5.81 6.16 6.82 5.94 5.69 6.08 6.49 6.04 5.62 6.01 6.42 5.98 6.18 6.08 6.01

 W. S. Central .............. 5.78 6.03 6.63 5.77 5.75 5.79 5.92 5.49 6.04 6.11 6.28 5.84 6.07 5.74 6.07

 Mountain ..................... 5.59 6.08 6.87 5.80 5.68 6.11 6.81 5.82 5.71 6.14 6.85 5.85 6.11 6.13 6.17

 Pacific ......................... 7.34 7.73 8.70 7.82 7.11 7.50 8.43 7.65 7.14 7.56 8.49 7.71 7.92 7.70 7.75

 U.S. Average ............ 6.63 6.86 7.36 6.68 6.64 6.86 7.27 6.75 6.68 6.90 7.32 6.79 6.89 6.89 6.93

All Sectors (a)

 New England ............... 14.63 14.55 14.70 14.35 14.97 14.87 15.00 14.69 14.94 14.84 14.99 14.68 14.57 14.89 14.87

 Middle Atlantic ............. 13.05 13.39 14.19 12.86 12.75 13.40 14.35 12.94 13.02 13.67 14.64 13.20 13.41 13.39 13.66

 E. N. Central ............... 8.94 9.24 9.60 9.13 8.98 9.30 9.62 9.20 8.89 9.24 9.54 9.12 9.24 9.28 9.20

 W. N. Central .............. 7.65 8.42 9.13 7.82 7.55 8.36 9.02 7.83 7.56 8.37 9.02 7.83 8.28 8.21 8.21

 S. Atlantic .................... 9.54 9.81 10.17 9.66 9.66 9.94 10.40 9.97 9.61 9.88 10.33 9.91 9.81 10.01 9.95

 E. S. Central ................ 8.19 8.54 8.99 8.42 8.02 8.46 8.91 8.48 7.92 8.32 8.75 8.33 8.55 8.48 8.34

 W. S. Central .............. 8.31 8.65 9.18 8.32 8.28 8.51 8.86 8.17 8.45 8.67 9.02 8.36 8.66 8.49 8.65

 Mountain ..................... 8.00 8.68 9.37 8.29 7.88 8.56 9.19 8.18 7.91 8.60 9.23 8.22 8.63 8.50 8.54

 Pacific ......................... 10.68 11.32 12.61 11.06 10.42 11.06 12.37 10.87 10.38 11.02 12.32 10.83 11.44 11.20 11.16

 U.S. Average ............ 9.61 9.98 10.52 9.74 9.57 9.97 10.51 9.80 9.58 9.97 10.51 9.81 9.98 9.98 9.99

- = no data available

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric 

Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Electric Power Sector (a)

 Coal ............................................. 4.879 4.566 5.260 4.092 4.408 4.111 4.898 4.473 4.791 4.284 4.961 4.534 4.698 4.474 4.643

 Natural Gas .................................. 2.062 2.377 3.360 2.386 2.465 2.679 3.548 2.497 2.334 2.602 3.564 2.437 2.550 2.799 2.737

 Other Gases ................................ 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.011 0.013

 Petroleum .................................... 0.082 0.071 0.078 0.057 0.062 0.071 0.075 0.067 0.073 0.074 0.079 0.070 0.072 0.069 0.074

 Residual Fuel Oil ....................... 0.025 0.025 0.026 0.019 0.020 0.027 0.028 0.020 0.022 0.024 0.027 0.021 0.024 0.024 0.023

 Distillate Fuel Oil ....................... 0.017 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.012 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.013 0.015

 Petroleum Coke ........................ 0.037 0.027 0.035 0.023 0.028 0.030 0.032 0.029 0.032 0.032 0.035 0.031 0.030 0.030 0.032

 Other Petroleum ....................... 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.003

 Nuclear ........................................ 2.258 1.943 2.288 2.170 2.196 2.181 2.321 2.152 2.294 2.219 2.361 2.189 2.165 2.213 2.266

 Pumped Storage Hydroelectric ..... -0.011 -0.016 -0.021 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.020 -0.017 -0.016 -0.015 -0.020 -0.017 -0.016 -0.017 -0.017

 Renewables:

 Conventional Hydroelectric ........ 0.912 1.059 0.859 0.714 0.725 0.948 0.710 0.603 0.747 0.878 0.696 0.636 0.885 0.746 0.739

 Geothermal ............................... 0.047 0.045 0.044 0.046 0.046 0.045 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.045 0.047 0.048 0.046 0.046 0.046

 Solar ......................................... 0.002 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.004 0.010 0.011 0.003 0.004 0.014 0.015 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.009

 Wind ......................................... 0.330 0.384 0.235 0.363 0.344 0.390 0.290 0.359 0.390 0.432 0.314 0.382 0.328 0.345 0.379

 Wood and Wood Waste ............ 0.030 0.026 0.032 0.027 0.031 0.028 0.034 0.032 0.034 0.031 0.036 0.036 0.029 0.031 0.035

 Other Renewables .................... 0.044 0.048 0.048 0.047 0.046 0.048 0.049 0.047 0.046 0.048 0.050 0.048 0.047 0.048 0.048

 Other Fuels (b) ............................. 0.018 0.020 0.020 0.019 0.019 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.019 0.020 0.020

 Subtotal Electric Power Sector ..... 10.660 10.539 12.220 9.917 10.341 10.529 11.993 10.294 10.776 10.646 12.137 10.401 10.836 10.791 10.992

Commercial Sector (c)

 Coal ............................................. 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003

 Natural Gas .................................. 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.012

 Petroleum .................................... 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

 Renewables (d) ............................ 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

 Other Fuels (b) ............................. 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002

 Subtotal Commercial Sector ......... 0.023 0.022 0.024 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.023 0.023 0.023

Industrial Sector (c)

 Coal ............................................. 0.051 0.048 0.057 0.046 0.047 0.049 0.053 0.050 0.052 0.051 0.055 0.052 0.050 0.050 0.052

 Natural Gas .................................. 0.220 0.220 0.229 0.224 0.236 0.223 0.242 0.223 0.230 0.220 0.241 0.223 0.223 0.231 0.228

 Other Gases ................................ 0.021 0.022 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.025 0.024 0.023 0.023 0.025 0.025 0.022 0.024 0.024

 Petroleum .................................... 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006

 Renewables:

 Conventional Hydroelectric ........ 0.005 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

 Wood and Wood Waste ............ 0.072 0.071 0.074 0.073 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.074 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.074 0.072 0.074 0.074

 Other Renewables (e) ............... 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002

 Other Fuels (b) ............................. 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009

 Subtotal Industrial Sector ............. 0.387 0.383 0.403 0.386 0.401 0.391 0.417 0.392 0.403 0.390 0.419 0.395 0.390 0.400 0.402

Total All Sectors ........................... 11.070 10.944 12.647 10.326 10.765 10.942 12.434 10.708 11.201 11.058 12.580 10.819 11.249 11.214 11.417

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day) 

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 Year

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

2013

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , 

DOE/EIA-0348.

- = no data available

Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.

(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.

(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal, 

photovoltaic energy and wind.

(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, 

geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.

(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.

(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Electric Power Sector (a)

 Coal (mmst/d) ........................... 2.60 2.45 2.83 2.26 2.39 2.21 2.63 2.39 2.53 2.27 2.64 2.40 2.53 2.41 2.46

 Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... 15.83 19.02 26.82 17.99 18.81 21.05 27.93 18.85 17.54 20.24 27.84 18.27 19.94 21.67 20.99

 Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13

 Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) ..... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) ..... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03

 Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ...... 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

 Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ...... 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01

Commercial Sector (c)

 Coal (mmst/d) ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10

 Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Industrial Sector (c)

 Coal (mmst/d) ........................... 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... 1.52 1.54 1.59 1.54 1.59 1.54 1.67 1.52 1.55 1.52 1.66 1.53 1.55 1.58 1.56

 Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Total All Sectors

 Coal (mmst/d) ........................... 2.62 2.47 2.86 2.28 2.41 2.23 2.66 2.41 2.55 2.29 2.66 2.42 2.56 2.43 2.48

 Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... 17.45 20.66 28.51 19.64 20.51 22.69 29.71 20.46 19.19 21.86 29.61 19.89 21.59 23.35 22.66

 Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. 0.16 0.13 0.15 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector

 Coal (mmst) .............................. 166.7 165.7 144.4 175.1 178.6 188.8 176.4 180.9 175.1 185.2 172.7 177.4 175.1 180.9 177.4

 Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............ 15.4 16.4 15.7 15.5 16.3 17.2 16.1 15.3 14.4 15.5 14.6 14.1 15.5 15.3 14.1

 Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............ 16.5 16.8 16.7 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.0 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.0 16.7

 Petroleum Coke (mmb) ............. 2.4 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.7

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

- = no data available

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power 

Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.

Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.

Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.

(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.

(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Supply

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ............... 0.806 0.946 0.775 0.645 0.649 0.848 0.641 0.547 0.662 0.785 0.629 0.576 3.171 2.684 2.652

 Geothermal ................................. 0.056 0.055 0.055 0.056 0.056 0.055 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.055 0.057 0.058 0.222 0.224 0.225

 Solar ............................................. 0.026 0.030 0.031 0.027 0.027 0.034 0.034 0.027 0.028 0.036 0.038 0.028 0.114 0.122 0.130

 Wind ............................................. 0.290 0.341 0.211 0.326 0.305 0.346 0.260 0.322 0.342 0.383 0.282 0.343 1.168 1.233 1.351

 Wood ........................................... 0.490 0.481 0.499 0.487 0.502 0.487 0.518 0.506 0.503 0.492 0.523 0.515 1.957 2.013 2.034

 Ethanol (b) .................................... 0.292 0.290 0.293 0.307 0.300 0.298 0.303 0.303 0.298 0.301 0.304 0.304 1.183 1.203 1.207

 Biodiesel (b) .................................. 0.014 0.024 0.032 0.043 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.031 0.032 0.033 0.032 0.113 0.126 0.128

 Other Renewables (c) .................. 0.117 0.119 0.123 0.121 0.116 0.120 0.128 0.123 0.114 0.120 0.129 0.124 0.480 0.488 0.488

 Total .......................................... 2.092 2.286 2.018 2.022 1.992 2.219 1.972 1.916 2.034 2.205 1.995 1.981 8.419 8.099 8.214

Consumption

 Electric Power Sector 

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ 0.801 0.941 0.771 0.641 0.644 0.842 0.637 0.542 0.656 0.779 0.625 0.571 3.154 2.665 2.632

 Geothermal .............................. 0.042 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.041 0.040 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.040 0.042 0.043 0.163 0.164 0.165

 Solar .......................................... 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.003 0.003 0.009 0.010 0.003 0.004 0.012 0.013 0.004 0.018 0.025 0.033

 Wind .......................................... 0.290 0.341 0.211 0.326 0.305 0.346 0.260 0.322 0.342 0.383 0.282 0.343 1.168 1.233 1.351

 Wood and Wood Waste ........... 0.046 0.040 0.047 0.042 0.047 0.042 0.051 0.049 0.052 0.047 0.056 0.055 0.175 0.189 0.210

 Other Renewables (c) ............... 0.064 0.067 0.069 0.068 0.066 0.069 0.071 0.068 0.064 0.069 0.072 0.069 0.268 0.274 0.274

 Subtotal .................................. 1.245 1.435 1.145 1.130 1.106 1.348 1.071 1.025 1.159 1.331 1.090 1.085 4.955 4.550 4.665

 Industrial Sector 

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.017 0.019 0.019

 Geothermal .............................. 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004

 Wood and Wood Waste ........... 0.323 0.319 0.328 0.324 0.332 0.322 0.342 0.333 0.328 0.322 0.344 0.335 1.294 1.330 1.329

 Other Renewables (c) ............... 0.044 0.043 0.044 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.042 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.176 0.179 0.179

 Subtotal .................................. 0.377 0.373 0.381 0.377 0.385 0.375 0.399 0.389 0.380 0.376 0.401 0.392 1.508 1.548 1.548

 Commercial Sector 

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001

 Geothermal .............................. 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.018 0.019 0.019

 Wood and Wood Waste ........... 0.017 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.019 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.019 0.019 0.070 0.074 0.075

 Other Renewables (c) ............... 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.035 0.035 0.035

 Subtotal .................................. 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.034 0.034 0.032 0.032 0.034 0.034 0.128 0.132 0.132

 Residential Sector 

 Geothermal .............................. 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.037 0.037 0.037

 Wood and Wood Waste ........... 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.419 0.421 0.421

 Solar .......................................... 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.097 0.097 0.097

 Subtotal .................................. 0.136 0.138 0.140 0.139 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.553 0.554 0.554

 Transportation Sector 

 Ethanol (b) ................................. 0.263 0.277 0.276 0.275 0.266 0.288 0.291 0.296 0.284 0.295 0.293 0.297 1.091 1.141 1.169

 Biodiesel (b) ............................... 0.013 0.026 0.035 0.035 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.030 0.032 0.033 0.032 0.108 0.125 0.127

 Total Consumption ....................... 2.061 2.276 2.003 1.991 1.967 2.208 1.960 1.910 2.020 2.199 1.984 1.974 8.331 8.045 8.176

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.

(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports 

less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential sector in heating oil.

- = no data available

(c) Other renewable energy sources include municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum 

Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109. 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

 (billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ....... 13,228 13,272 13,332 13,422 13,497 13,575 13,634 13,705 13,780 13,871 13,971 14,086 13,313 13,603 13,927

Real Disposable Personal Income

 (billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) ....... 10,183 10,170 10,122 10,141 10,194 10,276 10,319 10,366 10,390 10,431 10,472 10,536 10,154 10,289 10,457

Real Fixed Investment

 (billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) ......... 1,699 1,737 1,790 1,805 1,841 1,879 1,902 1,932 1,962 2,014 2,069 2,129 1,758 1,889 2,043

Business Inventory Change

 (billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) ......... 33.28 24.16 11.34 34.14 19.96 22.66 13.21 14.46 10.81 8.47 8.04 8.87 25.73 17.57 9.05

Housing Stock

 (millions) ...................................................... 123.5 123.5 123.5 123.5 123.5 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.7 123.7 123.8 123.9 123.5 123.6 123.9

Non-Farm Employment

 (millions) ..................................................... 130.7 131.2 131.5 132.0 132.6 133.1 133.5 134.1 134.6 135.1 135.7 136.2 131.4 133.3 135.4

Commercial Employment

 (millions) ..................................................... 88.7 89.2 89.5 90.0 90.5 90.9 91.4 91.9 92.4 92.8 93.3 93.7 89.4 91.2 93.1

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)

Total Industrial Production ............................ 92.8 92.9 94.4 95.1 96.2 97.1 97.9 98.3 99.0 99.9 100.7 101.6 93.8 97.4 100.3

Manufacturing ................................................ 90.6 90.8 91.9 92.8 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.4 97.2 98.4 99.4 100.4 91.5 95.4 98.9

Food ............................................................. 103.1 102.9 102.3 103.4 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.4 105.9 106.5 107.1 107.8 102.9 104.7 106.8

Paper ............................................................ 89.7 87.9 86.8 86.5 86.4 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 87.2 87.7 88.2 87.7 86.4 87.5

Chemicals ..................................................... 88.6 88.1 88.7 88.8 89.2 89.5 89.9 90.1 90.3 91.0 91.5 92.1 88.5 89.7 91.2

Petroleum ...................................................... 96.2 97.2 101.1 101.7 102.3 102.4 102.5 102.6 102.8 103.1 103.2 103.3 99.1 102.5 103.1

Stone, Clay, Glass ....................................... 67.5 69.7 70.9 69.3 69.7 69.6 69.6 70.0 71.3 72.9 74.8 76.8 69.4 69.7 73.9

Primary Metals .............................................. 90.4 90.2 90.7 93.9 95.7 95.3 95.4 95.2 95.2 96.6 97.6 98.6 91.3 95.4 97.0

Resins and Synthetic Products ..................... 78.8 74.2 74.8 73.6 74.9 76.0 76.2 76.2 76.1 76.7 77.1 77.7 75.3 75.8 76.9

Agricultural Chemicals .................................. 99.9 99.5 101.9 104.3 104.9 104.3 104.4 104.2 104.3 104.9 105.2 105.4 101.4 104.4 105.0

Natural Gas-weighted (a) ............................. 89.0 88.1 89.6 90.3 91.0 91.0 91.2 91.2 91.5 92.3 92.9 93.5 89.3 91.1 92.5

Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)

 (index, 1982-1984=1.00) ............................. 2.22 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.30 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.35 2.25 2.29 2.33

Producer Price Index: All Commodities

 (index, 1982=1.00) ...................................... 1.99 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.04 2.02 2.03 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.06 2.08 2.01 2.04 2.06

Producer Price Index: Petroleum

 (index, 1982=1.00) ...................................... 2.74 3.22 3.06 3.01 3.15 3.33 3.33 3.22 3.19 3.21 3.22 3.13 3.01 3.26 3.19

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

 (index, 2005=100) ....................................... 112.4 113.1 113.8 113.9 114.2 114.4 115.0 115.4 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.0 113.3 114.7 116.3

Miscellaneous

Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)

 (million miles/day) ....................................... 7,658 8,402 8,350 8,054 7,680 8,441 8,399 8,020 7,746 8,496 8,460 8,076 8,118 8,136 8,196

Air Travel Capacity

 (Available ton-miles/day, thousands) ......... 519 549 554 526 521 548 558 544 529 555 563 549 537 543 549

Aircraft Utilization

 (Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) .......... 307 339 344 321 308 340 353 337 315 348 361 346 328 335 343

Airline Ticket Price Index

 (index, 1982-1984=100) .............................. 298.2 308.1 307.8 302.0 296.0 306.2 318.4 321.9 312.4 317.8 327.9 331.3 304.0 310.6 322.3

Raw Steel Production

 (million short tons per day) ......................... 0.257 0.261 0.266 0.264 0.279 0.293 0.274 0.257 0.270 0.282 0.267 0.253 0.262 0.276 0.268

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions (million metric tons)

Petroleum ...................................................... 571 575 578 575 558 577 580 580 567 578 580 580 2,299 2,295 2,305

Natural Gas ................................................... 403 273 287 333 406 282 293 360 413 280 295 359 1,296 1,341 1,347

Coal ............................................................... 482 460 530 427 452 423 500 459 474 433 501 461 1,899 1,834 1,870

Total Fossil Fuels .......................................... 1,456 1,308 1,395 1,334 1,417 1,282 1,373 1,398 1,455 1,291 1,376 1,399 5,493 5,471 5,521

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012 2013 Year

- = no data available

(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.

(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

and Federal Aviation Administration.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)

 New England ............... 727 732 734 739 742 746 749 753 757 761 766 771 733 748 764

 Middle Atlantic ............. 2,018 2,031 2,035 2,048 2,057 2,067 2,075 2,087 2,096 2,108 2,122 2,139 2,033 2,071 2,116

 E. N. Central ............... 1,828 1,833 1,834 1,848 1,856 1,866 1,872 1,880 1,889 1,902 1,916 1,931 1,836 1,868 1,910

 W. N. Central .............. 848 851 852 859 863 869 873 877 882 887 893 900 852 871 891

 S. Atlantic .................... 2,404 2,413 2,413 2,430 2,444 2,456 2,466 2,480 2,494 2,514 2,534 2,557 2,415 2,462 2,525

 E. S. Central ................ 617 618 619 624 628 632 634 638 641 646 651 656 620 633 648

 W. S. Central .............. 1,522 1,524 1,556 1,562 1,573 1,583 1,592 1,599 1,612 1,622 1,632 1,648 1,541 1,587 1,629

 Mountain ..................... 858 859 866 873 880 885 890 894 901 907 913 921 864 887 910

 Pacific ......................... 2,319 2,323 2,336 2,352 2,366 2,382 2,394 2,408 2,419 2,433 2,451 2,471 2,332 2,387 2,443

Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)

 New England ............... 93.0 93.0 94.3 95.0 96.2 96.6 97.3 97.8 98.6 99.7 100.6 101.4 93.8 97.0 100.1

 Middle Atlantic ............. 90.5 90.3 91.1 91.6 92.8 93.3 94.0 94.4 95.0 95.9 96.7 97.6 90.9 93.6 96.3

 E. N. Central ............... 89.4 89.6 90.7 91.6 93.2 94.1 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.5 98.7 99.9 90.3 94.5 98.1

 W. N. Central .............. 93.1 93.7 95.2 96.4 97.9 98.8 99.7 100.3 101.1 102.2 103.4 104.6 94.6 99.2 102.8

 S. Atlantic .................... 87.6 87.5 88.3 89.3 90.8 91.3 92.1 92.5 93.1 94.1 95.0 95.9 88.2 91.7 94.5

 E. S. Central ................ 86.2 86.2 87.1 88.6 90.1 91.1 92.2 93.0 94.0 95.2 96.5 97.8 87.0 91.6 95.9

 W. S. Central .............. 93.8 94.4 95.8 97.3 98.9 99.8 100.7 101.4 102.3 103.5 104.6 105.7 95.3 100.2 104.0

 Mountain ..................... 89.9 90.0 91.4 92.5 94.0 94.7 95.7 96.3 97.4 98.7 99.8 100.9 91.0 95.2 99.2

 Pacific ......................... 92.4 92.4 93.5 93.7 95.1 95.7 96.6 97.2 98.1 99.3 100.3 101.2 93.0 96.1 99.7

Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)

 New England ............... 650 653 650 653 657 662 665 669 672 677 679 682 652 663 678

 Middle Atlantic ............. 1,748 1,744 1,736 1,744 1,754 1,768 1,780 1,793 1,801 1,812 1,820 1,830 1,743 1,774 1,816

 E. N. Central ............... 1,606 1,603 1,596 1,599 1,608 1,620 1,628 1,637 1,644 1,653 1,659 1,666 1,601 1,623 1,656

 W. N. Central .............. 748 750 747 747 750 756 761 766 770 776 779 782 748 758 777

 S. Atlantic .................... 2,129 2,131 2,120 2,136 2,152 2,171 2,184 2,200 2,215 2,232 2,244 2,257 2,129 2,176 2,237

 E. S. Central ................ 563 564 561 564 568 573 577 581 584 587 590 593 563 575 588

 W. S. Central .............. 1,251 1,256 1,254 1,261 1,270 1,282 1,292 1,302 1,311 1,322 1,331 1,341 1,256 1,286 1,326

 Mountain ..................... 740 742 739 742 747 754 759 765 770 776 780 785 741 757 778

 Pacific ......................... 1,949 1,946 1,940 1,951 1,965 1,983 1,995 2,008 2,020 2,036 2,048 2,061 1,946 1,988 2,041

Households (Thousands)

 New England ............... 5,658 5,661 5,664 5,668 5,677 5,684 5,693 5,702 5,713 5,723 5,733 5,744 5,668 5,702 5,744

 Middle Atlantic ............. 15,555 15,575 15,592 15,608 15,633 15,658 15,681 15,707 15,734 15,760 15,785 15,810 15,608 15,707 15,810

 E. N. Central ............... 18,023 18,028 18,030 18,038 18,066 18,096 18,126 18,161 18,197 18,232 18,265 18,299 18,038 18,161 18,299

 W. N. Central .............. 8,133 8,146 8,159 8,176 8,200 8,224 8,248 8,273 8,297 8,322 8,346 8,371 8,176 8,273 8,371

 S. Atlantic .................... 23,216 23,267 23,320 23,377 23,456 23,540 23,625 23,723 23,824 23,928 24,031 24,137 23,377 23,723 24,137

 E. S. Central ................ 7,215 7,226 7,239 7,252 7,269 7,289 7,309 7,330 7,354 7,377 7,400 7,424 7,252 7,330 7,424

 W. S. Central .............. 13,338 13,377 13,419 13,467 13,529 13,590 13,652 13,720 13,790 13,858 13,926 13,993 13,467 13,720 13,993

 Mountain ..................... 8,290 8,307 8,327 8,352 8,388 8,426 8,463 8,505 8,549 8,593 8,634 8,678 8,352 8,505 8,678

 Pacific ......................... 17,504 17,539 17,576 17,618 17,678 17,747 17,814 17,881 17,953 18,026 18,092 18,163 17,618 17,881 18,163

Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)

 New England ............... 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.0

 Middle Atlantic ............. 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.2 18.5 18.7

 E. N. Central ............... 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.3 20.5 20.8

 W. N. Central .............. 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 9.9 10.0 10.1

 S. Atlantic .................... 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.8 24.8 25.2 25.6

 E. S. Central ................ 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.6

 W. S. Central .............. 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.2 15.5 15.8

 Mountain ..................... 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.3 9.4

 Pacific ......................... 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 19.5 19.8 20.1

Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.

2013 Year

- = no data available

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 2012
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2011 2012 2013

Heating Degree-days

 New England ................ 3,314 846 105 1,870 2,895 929 181 2,253 3,177 912 190 2,251 6,135 6,258 6,530

 Middle Atlantic .............. 3,023 609 67 1,715 2,665 746 121 2,051 2,927 727 126 2,044 5,414 5,583 5,824

 E. N. Central ................. 3,306 755 182 1,943 2,858 780 151 2,299 3,191 766 158 2,298 6,186 6,088 6,413

 W. N. Central ................ 3,517 769 200 2,155 2,917 714 178 2,491 3,310 718 179 2,495 6,641 6,300 6,702

 South Atlantic ............... 1,501 179 18 900 1,324 234 24 1,055 1,515 238 23 1,039 2,598 2,637 2,816

 E. S. Central ................. 1,866 247 44 1,230 1,601 275 31 1,372 1,886 287 32 1,359 3,387 3,279 3,563

 W. S. Central ................ 1,273 101 9 839 1,030 96 8 886 1,263 107 7 878 2,222 2,020 2,256

 Mountain ....................... 2,338 773 71 1,938 2,163 716 164 1,933 2,311 730 171 1,939 5,120 4,976 5,150

 Pacific ........................... 1,481 675 52 1,171 1,345 559 107 1,144 1,419 554 94 1,117 3,379 3,155 3,184

 U.S. Average ............ 2,285 517 77 1,441 1,990 532 97 1,628 2,223 530 98 1,617 4,320 4,247 4,468

Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)

 New England ................ 3,219 930 190 2,272 3,219 930 190 2,272 3,219 930 190 2,272 6,611 6,611 6,611

 Middle Atlantic .............. 2,968 752 127 2,064 2,968 752 127 2,064 2,968 752 127 2,064 5,911 5,911 5,911

 E. N. Central ................. 3,227 798 156 2,316 3,227 798 156 2,316 3,227 798 156 2,316 6,497 6,497 6,497

 W. N. Central ................ 3,326 729 183 2,512 3,326 729 183 2,512 3,326 729 183 2,512 6,750 6,750 6,750

 South Atlantic ............... 1,523 247 25 1,058 1,523 247 25 1,058 1,523 247 25 1,058 2,853 2,853 2,853

 E. S. Central ................. 1,895 299 33 1,377 1,895 299 33 1,377 1,895 299 33 1,377 3,604 3,604 3,604

 W. S. Central ................ 1,270 112 9 896 1,270 112 9 896 1,270 112 9 896 2,287 2,287 2,287

 Mountain ....................... 2,321 741 183 1,964 2,321 741 183 1,964 2,321 741 183 1,964 5,209 5,209 5,209

 Pacific ........................... 1,419 556 108 1,145 1,419 556 108 1,145 1,419 556 108 1,145 3,228 3,228 3,228

 U.S. Average ............ 2,242 543 101 1,638 2,242 543 101 1,638 2,242 543 101 1,638 4,524 4,524 4,524

Cooling Degree-days

 New England ................ 0 111 496 1 0 69 357 0 0 81 366 1 608 426 448

 Middle Atlantic .............. 0 216 670 1 0 142 523 5 0 152 510 5 887 670 667

 E. N. Central ................. 0 227 668 2 1 200 508 8 1 212 521 8 897 717 742

 W. N. Central ................ 1 294 810 13 3 268 656 13 3 265 659 15 1,118 940 942

 South Atlantic ............... 99 789 1,262 182 110 586 1,101 210 113 581 1,108 223 2,332 2,007 2,025

 E. S. Central ................. 9 653 1,134 21 22 483 1,027 64 31 474 1,012 66 1,817 1,596 1,583

 W. S. Central ................ 113 1,091 1,767 201 80 823 1,445 179 80 793 1,444 190 3,172 2,527 2,506

 Mountain ....................... 11 316 971 70 13 396 870 70 15 378 868 78 1,368 1,349 1,340

 Pacific ........................... 2 68 606 41 4 152 514 41 7 157 553 55 717 711 772

 U.S. Average ............ 33 432 942 70 33 355 784 78 35 352 791 83 1,477 1,250 1,262

Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)

 New England ................ 0 81 361 1 0 81 361 1 0 81 361 1 443 443 443

 Middle Atlantic .............. 0 151 508 7 0 151 508 7 0 151 508 7 666 666 666

 E. N. Central ................. 1 208 511 10 1 208 511 10 1 208 511 10 730 730 730

 W. N. Central ................ 3 270 661 14 3 270 661 14 3 270 661 14 948 948 948

 South Atlantic ............... 113 576 1,081 213 113 576 1,081 213 113 576 1,081 213 1,983 1,983 1,983

 E. S. Central ................. 29 469 1,002 66 29 469 1,002 66 29 469 1,002 66 1,566 1,566 1,566

 W. S. Central ................ 80 790 1,424 185 80 790 1,424 185 80 790 1,424 185 2,479 2,479 2,479

 Mountain ....................... 17 383 839 68 17 383 839 68 17 383 839 68 1,307 1,307 1,307

 Pacific ........................... 10 171 526 49 10 171 526 49 10 171 526 49 756 756 756

 U.S. Average ............ 34 353 775 80 34 353 775 80 34 353 775 80 1,242 1,242 1,242

Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

2012 2013

- = no data available

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - March 2012

2011 Year