DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 418 239 CE 076 134

AUTHOR Boesel, David; Alsalam, Nabeel; Smith, Thomas M.

TITLE Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients.

Research Synthesis. Executive Summary.

INSTITUTION National Library of Education (ED/OERI), Washington, DC.

REPORT NO NLE-98-2033

PUB DATE 1998-04-00

NOTE 18p.; For the full report, see CE 075 853.

PUB TYPE Reports Research (143)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.

DESCRIPTORS Adult Basic Education; *Educational Attainment; *Employment

Patterns; *High School Equivalency Programs; Longitudinal

Studies; Military Personnel; National Surveys; *Outcomes of

Education; Postsecondary Education; *Test Reliability; *Test

Use; Trend Analysis

IDENTIFIERS *General Educational Development Tests

ABSTRACT

In 1995, nearly three-quarters of a million high school

dropouts took the General Educational Development (GED) tests. The half

million individuals who passed the test accounted for approximately one-sixth

of all high school diplomas issued that year. On average, GED recipients

perform as well as graduating high school seniors on the five tests

constituting the GED. The GED has been shown to serve the following

functions: stimulus to human capital investment; tool for measuring and

assessing cognitive skills; sorting procedure; certification tool; and

self-confidence builder. Studies have shown that 50-63% of GED recipients

obtain some additional civilian education and training, particularly in

community colleges and vocational-technical skills. In 1986-1992, GED

recipients' share of postsecondary enrollment declined from 7% to 4%.

Although GED recipients' grade-point averages in vocational programs and twoand four-year colleges have remained close to those of high school graduates,

GED recipients are less likely than high school diploma holders to complete

their postsecondary education. Compared with high school graduates, GED

recipients earn less, experience more job turnover, and have similar

cognitive abilities. Studies have confirmed that GED certification increases

access to postsecondary education, which in turn leads to improved wages.

(MN)

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Executive Summary

Educational and

Labor Market Performance of

GED Recipients

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U. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Oft of Educational Research and Improvement ED ATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION

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Research Synthesis

Executive Summary

Educational and

Labor Market Performance of

GED Recipients

David Boesel, National Library of Education

Nabeel Alsalam, National Center for Education Statistics

Thomas M. Smith, National Center for Education Statistics

National Library of Education

Office of Educational Research and Improvement

U.S. Department of Education

3
U.S. Department of Education

Richard W. Riley

Secretary

Office of Educational Research and Improvement

Ricky T. Takai

Acting Assistant Secretary

National Library of Education

Blane K. Dessy

Director

Media and Information Services

Cynthia Hearn Dorfman

Director

April 1998

This study is intended to promote the exchange of ideas among researchers

and policy makers. The views expressed in it are part of ongoing research and

analysis and do not necessarily reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Education.
PREFACE

Often it is hard to tell what conclusions can be drawn from education research

studies, because the studies on a given subject have not been examined systematically as a body of research. Analyses conducted at different times with

different populations and different research methods often yield apparently

inconsistent conclusions about the same subject. Given ambiguous research

findings, advocates of one position or another may promote those that support

their views, while ignoring or minimizing contrary findings. In such circumstances, researchers, policy makers, and practitioners, such as teachers and

administrators, may lack the comprehensive, balanced, objective information

they need. While many good syntheses of education research have been produced over the years, many topics have not yet been covered.

In response to this need, the National Library of Education (NLE) has undertaken a series of research syntheses on issues of public concern in education.

Based on published literature identified through traditional bibliographic

searches, ERIC, and other Internet sources, and on unpublished Ph.D. dissertations and research reports available to NLE, the syntheses are designed to be

empirical, even-handed, and as comprehensive as possible.

This study of the performance of General Educational Development (GED)

recipients is the first synthesis in the series. The result of a great deal of careful

research, it should be especially useful to those concerned with the education of

adults and out-of-school youth.

We look forward to the new research syntheses to be provided in the future.

Blane Dessy

Executive Director

National Library of Education

iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

In 1995 almost three-quarters of a million high school dropouts, age 16 and

above, took the General Educational Development (GED) Tests, seeking the

most widely recognized form of alternative secondary certification in the United

States. The half million who passed it were awarded high school equivalency

diplomas, about one-sixth of all the high school diplomas issued in that year.

GED examinees say that they take the tests primarily to get access to more

education and to improve their job prospects. How successful are those who

attain the GED credential? How does their performance in postsecondary

education and the job market compare with that of regular high school graduates? With that of other high school dropouts? And what relation, if any, does

GED certification have to the outcomes in these arenas? This study examines

50 years of research that addresses these and related questions.

The GED Tests were developed for the U.S. Army during World War II. At that

time, the Roosevelt administration favored federal support for the college

education of returning veterans, but many service members lacked the high

school diplomas necessary to enter college. The granting of diplomas for wartime service had been tried after World War I, but colleges and universities came

to oppose this practice. As an alternative, the American Council for Education

(ACE) proposed testing veterans to determine competence for college. In 1942,

test experts working for the Army selected five tests from the Iowa Test of

Educational Development to form the first General Educational Development

Tests. The tests reflected the emphasis of progressive educators on learning

related to everyday life rather than on formal academics.

In the 1940s, GED test takers were mainly veterans and service members, and

the test results were used mainly for college admissions. After the War, however,

the tests were also administered to civilians, and states began to award high

school credentials for passing the tests. By 1959, civilian test takers outnumbered veterans and service members.

From the beginning, the GED test battery has contained five different exams

writing, interpretation of literature, math, social studies, and sciencethough

the content of the tests has changed. As a rule, the tests present written passages and multiple choice questions about the passages. They also provide

additional information needed to answer the questions, such as mathematical

formulas.

The American Council for Education's GED Testing Service produces and

administers the tests, and its Commission on Educational Credit and Credentials sets the minimum passing standards. Above the minimums, states are free

7
Research Synthesis: Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

to set their own conditions for passing the GED and awarding credentials. The

original wartime passing standards were in place until 1982, when the ACE

commission raised them. The commission raised the standards again in 1997.

In the years during and immediately after the war, the overwhelming majority of

veterans who took the GED passed it. For the mostly civilian examinees who

took the test between 1974 and 1995, the median yearly pass rate was 71.5

percent. However, the eventual pass rate for a cohort of initial test takers is

probably somewhat higher, because candidates can usually retake tests that they

fail or do not complete.

On average, GED recipients perform about as well as graduating high school

seniors on each of the five tests. Their scores are a little higher on the social

studies, science, and literature tests and a little lower on the writing skills and

math tests. However, the relation between the performance of GED recipients and that of high school seniors on the entire five-test battery has been a subject of debate.

From the early years of the GED, critics charged that passing the tests was too

easy and did not reflect the skills of high school graduates. Beginning in the

1980s, new challenges to the test arose in several areas. First, a series of studies

by military manpower researchers showed that enlistees with GEDs tended to

have high attrition rates. Second, the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction found that GED recipients enrolled in Wisconsin colleges were much more

likely than high school graduates to leave and that their grades and other measures of performance were lower than those of high school graduates. Third, a

1993 study by economists Stephen Cameron and James Heckman concluded

that GED certificate holders are less likely to be employed, earn less, and

experience more job turnover than high school graduates, once other factors are

controlled. Against this background, the current synthesis will examine research

on the performance of GED recipients in postsecondary education, the labor

market, and the armed services.

Functions of the GED

Before assessing the performance of GED recipients, however, the synthesis

examines the social functions that the GED process performs or is said to

perform.

The GED as a Stimulus to Human Capital Investment

Human capital investment is the time, money, and other resources expended in

acquiring work-relevant skills. Time spent in formal education and/or training is

a widely used measure of human capital investment. Based on this measure, to

what extent does the GED stimulate human capital investment among non-high

school graduates?

8

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Executive Summary

The GED as an Incentive to invest

In 1980, GED examinees spent a median of 20 hours (and $10) preparing for

the tests. By 1989, they were spending a median of 30 hours in preparation.

This change was driven by a doubling in the proportion of candidates who spent

over 100 hours preparing for the testsfrom 11.8 percent to 24.2 percent.

Reasons for this increase are unclear.

Although 30 hours of test preparation is a very limited investment in human

capital, the proportion of examinees who spent more than 100 hours preparing

for the GED deserves attention. Research suggests that an adult learner needs

approximately 100 hours of instruction to achieve a 1-year gain in reading ability.

Still, such investments are much smaller than the approximately 410 hours spent

in core curriculum classes in a typical school year. In 1995, GED test takers had

completed a mean 9.9 years of school. With 2.1 years of additional schooling,

high school graduates typically had 861 more hours of core curriculum classes.

The GED as a Disincentive to Invest?

Because passing the GED takes less time and effort than a high school diploma

and may appear to have the same status, some researchers believe that it encourages marginal students to drop out of school or facilitates their departure.

Almost half of the states (24) allow young people to take the test before the age

at which they would ordinarily graduate from high school, and several have

allowed school systems to start alternative in-school programs leading to a GED.

(The ACE commission waived a prohibition against administering the GED to

students in high school on a trial basis and subject to conditions.)

No systematic research directly addresses the question of whether the GED

encourages dropping out, and an examination of related literature found no

substantial evidence to support the hypothesis that it does.

Measuring and Assessing Cognitive Skills

The GED was designed to measure the ability to understand, evaluate, and

manipulate concepts and information and to use knowledge and reason to reach

general conclusions in five subject areas. Underlying performance in each of

these areas is a set of basic cognitive skills that is the primary determinant of the

scores on all five. The underlying cognitive skills are reflected in intercorrelations among the tests ranging from .64 to .82 and in strong correlations

between total GED Test scores and total scores on other tests, such as the

American College Test (.80), the National Adult Literacy Survey (.78), and the

military entrance examination (.75 and .79 in two analyses).

Analyses of data from the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS) and the

Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) show that GED certification designates non-high school graduates whose cognitive skills exceed those of

other dropouts. On average, GED recipients have adult literacy skills equal to

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Research Synthesis: Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

those of high school graduates. In terms of ASVAB scores, GEDs are not equal

to graduates, but they are closer to graduates than to dropouts.

The GED as a Sorting Procedure

The GED process, beginning with the decision to take the test and ending with

the certification of successful examinees, provides an opportunity for high school

dropouts to demonstrate their cognitive skills and related knowledge. GED

examinees tend to have more of these skills than other dropouts, and simply by

taking the test, they set themselves apart. Self-selection is the major part of the

sorting process that the GED performs. Although many of today's new dropouts take the test, only 1.5 percent of 44 million adults without high school

diplomas have done so. Once an individual takes the test, the probabilities of

passing are fairly high.

The GED process tends to select dropouts who have more schooling and higher

socioeconomic status than other dropouts, as well as stronger cognitive skills.

They have fewer of these assets than high school graduates, however.

The GED as Certification

The GED process certifies dropouts with relatively good cognitive skills as

having passed the tests, providing a high school equivalency award. This certification can serve to signal educational institutions, employers, and others that the

GED recipient has demonstrated the ability to read, write, think, and compute

at the high school level, according to state standards for passing the test.

Postsecondary institutions usually accept the GED, but many require additional

evidence of ability to perform in college, such as SAT or ACT scores. In this

respect, the admission requirements for GEDs are similar to those for high

school graduates. In addition to opening doors to postsecondary education,

GED certification can also help GED enrollees obtain federal financial aid, such

as Pell Grants and Guaranteed Student Loans.

Most employers surveyed in the studies reviewed accepted the GED credential

and regarded it as equivalent to a high school diploma. Further, a majority of

those responding to two surveys thought that GED recipients performed their

work as well as high school graduates. However, many of the employer studies

raise questions about the relevance of all secondary education credentials to

hiring decisions. If the saliency of secondary education credentials for employer

decisions is low, then the distinction between those with credentials and those

without may not matter much, and the signal that an employer receives from

either kind of credential may be weak.

C

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Executive Summary

The GED as a Self-Confidence Builder

Low self-esteem is associated with an array of negative outcomes. Breaking out

of the cycle of low self-esteem and poor performance can be extremely difficult.

Survey research indicates that most high school dropouts who pass the GED feel

better about themselves, and their increased self-esteem may help them acquire

more education, get better jobs, and generally improve their life circumstances.

The durability of this new self-confidence is an important question, but one for

which there is no answer at present.

Postsecondary Outcomes

What proportion of GED recipients enroll in postsecondary education and

training programs, and how well do they do in them?

Postsecondary Enrollments

GEDs are much more likely to participate in postsecondary education and

vocational training than are other dropouts. In the survey studies reviewed, over

half of the GED recipientsbetween 50 and 63 percentgot some additional

civilian education and training in degree-granting colleges, vocational schools,

apprenticeship programs, or on-the-job training. GEDs are most likely to enroll

in community colleges and vocational/technical schools and to concentrate on

acquiring occupational skills. This focus is understandable: most are adults and

many have family responsibilities.

The GED share of postsecondary enrollments declined from 7 percent in 1986

to 4 percent in 1992. Reasons for the decline are unclear, but it occurred in lessthan-2-year, 2-year, and 4-year institutions.

Postsecondary Grade Point Averages

The grades of GED students in the institutions examined were close to those of

high school graduates. For example, among beginners in 4-year colleges, the

difference was roughly that between a C and a low C+. The grades of GEDs

and high school graduates enrolled in postsecondary education programs tended

to converge over time, as selective attrition of the less able students equalized

the groups. In vocational programs, which often last 1 year, this convergence

effect was slight; the grade point averages of GEDs were approximately equal to

those of high school graduates. In 2-year colleges, the ratio of GED to high

school diploma grade point averages increased from .82 in the first year to 1.06

upon completion, and in 4-year colleges, it increased from .86 to 1.00. In all

three types of schools, GEDs who graduated earned approximately the same

grade point averages as those with regular high school credentials.

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Research Synthesis: Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

Postsecondary Persistence and Completion Rates

In general, GED recipients are less likely than high school diploma holders to

complete their postsecondary education. While GEDs graduate from vocational

programs at about the same rate as their counterparts, they are only half as likely

to earn associate's degrees and much less likely to earn bachelor's degrees.

These attrition rates are probably not a "result" of GED certification, but of

other predisposing factors associated with possession of the credential, such as

single-parent status and delayed enrollment.

Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

Over the last two decades, the real annual earnings of young adults have declined at rates related to educational attainment. College graduates lost ground

in the early 1970s, but their earnings have leveled off since then. The earnings

of workers with less education have continued to decline. Those with the least

education and the lowest earnings, the high school dropouts, are losing ground

most quickly. Dropouts would gain substantially if they had the earnings of high

school graduates, but assuming the continuation of present conditions, they

would still be experiencing a long-run decline in earnings.

To assess the labor-market performance of GED recipients, we reviewed crosssectional studies, which compared GED recipients and others at the same time,

and longitudinal studies, which compared the performance of GEDs and others

before and after completion of the test battery.

Cross-sectional Studies

The analyses of cross-sectional studies examine the labor-market performance of

GED recipients; highlight three key explanatory variables; and assess the indirect effects of GED attainment.

Labor Force Participation and Employment Status

In controlled comparisons, the GED credential had little effect on labor force

participation or unemployment but was positively associated with gains in fulltime employment.

Wages

In controlled analyses, the wages of male GEDs were 6 to 12 percent higher

than those of dropouts; female wages were up to 13 percent higher; and the

wages of GED adults (both sexes) were 5 to 11 percent higher. In all studies but

one, however, GEDs earned less than high school graduates. Much of the

apparent wage effect of GED status may actually be an effect of other key

characteristics of GED recipients, which are examined below.

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Executive Summary

Time Spent Working

In controlled comparisons, GED males spent less mean time working than

dropouts, while females spent more time working. On average, GEDs of both

sexes worked less than high school graduates. In simple comparisons, GED

males experienced more job turnover than dropouts, while females experienced

less. Both male and female GEDs had more job turnover than high school

graduates.

Annual Earnings

In simple and controlled analyses, GEDs earned more than other dropouts but

less than high school graduates. In the short term, GED recipients had no

earnings advantage over dropouts, but their relative earnings grew over time.

The low returns to the GED shortly after certification may reflect opportunity

costs of acquiring more education and training.

Key Control Variables and GED Outcomes

Several variables associated with GED status may explain much of the apparent

GED effect on wages.

Years of Schooling

On average, GED recipients have more years of elementary and secondary

schooling than other dropouts and (of course) less than high school graduates.

These differences may affect wages. In the research reviewed, among males of

similar race, ethnicity, and maternal education, all differences in hourly earnings

between the three groups could be explained by differences in years of secondary schooling completed. Neither the high school diploma nor the GED had any

additional "sheepskin" effect. Among females, a substantial part of the wage

differences could be explained by years of secondary schooling, but there

remained a possibility of credential effects.

Postsecondary Attainment

High school graduates have more postsecondary education than GED recipients, who in turn have more than other dropouts. Controlled studies showed

that variation in postsecondary attainment helps explain the wage difference

between GED recipients and diploma graduates and, to a much lesser extent,

the difference between GED recipients and other dropouts. Nevertheless,

GEDs still had higher wages than other dropouts after the effect of

postsecondary education was taken into account.

Cognitive Ability

On average, the basic cognitive ability of GED recipients is close to that of high

school graduates and considerably above that of dropouts. Controlling on

cognitive ability greatly reduced or eliminated any wage differences between

GEDs and dropouts but had a smaller effect on differences between GEDs and

high school graduates. Controlling on ability statistically removed the GEDs'

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Research Synthesis: Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

primary advantage over other dropoutstheir greater cognitive skills. Since the

basic cognitive skills of GEDs are close to those of high school graduates, the

difference in their wages was less affected by the introduction of this variable as

a control.

Educational attainment and cognitive ability are strongly related. Taken together, analyses of the effects of secondary schooling, higher education, and

cognitive ability suggest that accumulated human capital, reflected in level of

education and ability scores, accounts for most of the wage differences among

high school graduates, GEDs, and dropouts of similar backgrounds.

Indirect Effects of GED Attainment

Although direct effects of GED certification on wages are limited, once education level or ability are controlled, the credential does have substantial indirect

effects. It increases access to postsecondary education and training, and if GED

recipients take advantage of that access, their wages tend to improve. Female

GEDs also receive indirect wage benefits through the additional job tenure and

work experience that the GED enables them to obtain. Male GED recipients,

however, do not increase their wages through tenure and experience, because

they have less than dropouts.

Longitudinal Analyses

An analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)

found no initial GED effect on wages for males, but over time, wages grew more

rapidly than they would have had GED certification not been attained. The

authors think the data reflect an indirect GED effect on wages through further

training and job search. In another study based on the NLSY, wage effects for

females were positive but not statistically significant.

An analysis from an evaluation of a federal JOBS program found that having a

GED was associated with $47.37 per month higher earnings for males and

females combined. An analysis of women in a job training program for welfare

mothers found a GED effect of $22.60 monthly, an 8-10 percent increase in

earnings.

8

In the JOBS study, time spent in basic education to prepare for the GED was

negatively associated with earnings, possibly because participating in basic

education resulted in less time working. On the other hand, basic education, a GED, and time spent in job training or college had substantial positive effects.

The combination of a GED with vocational training and attainment of an

occupational license produced especially large effects.

Based on the evidence, high school dropouts can improve their economic

condition by obtaining the basic or remedial education needed to pass the GED

and through the GED, obtaining further job-related education and training. If

such a strategy is followed, the opportunity costs of acquiring additional educa14
Executive Summary

tion and training may limit early returns to the credential, but the returns will

increase over time.

The GED and the U.S. Armed Forces

Until the 1980s, the armed services made no practical distinction between high

school graduates and GED recipients in enlistment policy. Then military manpower studies showed that GED attrition rates were double those of high school

graduates and about the same as those of dropouts. For example, between 1977

and 1983, the 36-month attrition rates were 22 percent for high school graduates, 45 percent for GEDs, and 52 percent for dropouts. The services invest

heavily in training and providing for new recruits, and high attrition rates are

unacceptable. Consequently, the military developed a three-tier system for

assessing the educational qualifications of applicants. High school graduates are

placed in the first tier and are regarded as the best prospective recruits. GEDs

are placed in the second tier, and dropouts in the third. Nevertheless, some

35,000-40,000 GED recipients do enlist in the military each year.

Conclusion

The GED process identifies and certifies high school dropouts whose ability to

read, write, think, and do math is better than that of other dropouts and about

equal to that of high school graduates, on average.

The tests do not measure other characteristics related to performance in

postsecondary education, the civilian labor market, and the military. GED

recipients typically have more schooling and come from families with higher

socioeconomic status than do other dropouts. High school graduates, in turn,

have more of these assets than GEDs. Characteristics such as these explain a

substantial part of the differences in the performance of GEDs, dropouts, and

high school graduates.

GED certification provides reliable information about an individual's basic

cognitive skills to postsecondary institutions, employers, the military, the federal

government, and others who might be asked to make a selectiondecision about

that person.

By signalling cognitive competencies to decision makers who usually know little

about an individual, the GED can help open the door to opportunity. Once

through the door, however, the individual has to use the cognitive skills and

whatever other knowledge, skills, and abilities he or she may have in order to

succeed.

GED certification can help in gaining access to postsecondary education and can

help recipients get financial assistance. Once enrolled in college, GEDs earn

grade point averages similar to those of high school diploma holders, but they

are less likely to graduate.

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Research Synthesis: Educational and Labor Market Performance of GED Recipients

10

In postsecondary vocational programs, GED recipients seem to be average

students. The short-term, job-related nature of these programs and the handson learning they entail probably have an appeal for students who left high school

early, are struggling to fulfill adult responsibilities, and want to improve their job

prospects.

GED certification can also increase job opportunities somewhat. Once on the

job, GED recipients have to use both their cognitive and noncognitive skills in

order to succeed, as do other workers.

Male GEDs tend to earn higher wages than other dropouts, but because of their

greater schooling, they might have earned as much without the credential. They

spend about the same amount of time working as other dropouts, and they have

more job turnover. Female GEDs get at least the same relative wage advantage

as malesan advantage not entirely explained by prior schoolingand, unlike

males, they spend more time working and have less turnover than dropouts do.

Most of the GED's effect on wages comes not from the credential, but from the

human capital that it reflects or makes accessible.

It is worthwhile for a high school dropout to get a GED. Its biggest advantage is

that it increases access to postsecondary education and training, which tend to

improve economic outcomes.

On the other hand, GED rates of persistence in the structured activities examined in this study seem problematic, especially for males. First evident in high

school, the problem appears to recur in other contexts. GED attrition rates in

the military were close to those of dropouts. In postsecondary education, other

than vocational programs, GED graduation rates were much lower than those of

high school diploma holders. In the labor market, male GEDs spent less time

working than dropouts, or the same amount, and had more job turnover. (The

labor market outcomes are suggestive but difficult to interpret. To some extent,

they may reflect the opportunity costs of acquiring more education and a tendency to leave old jobs for new ones with better pay.)

The GED process certifies one form of human capitalcognitive skillsbut,

unlike a high school education, does not generate it. Nor does the GED process

generate or certify noncognitive human capital, such as work habits and the

ability to function well in organizationsattributes positively related to persistence. Based on military studies, researchers have concluded that completion of

high school demonstrates the presence of such attributes and that a high school

diploma reflects them.

Noncognitive skills, abilities, and attitudes come from many sources, especially

the family and the school. The role of the school in developing them is widely

recognized but not well enough understood. Involvement in the process of

schooling (e.g., regular attendance, meeting deadlines, complying with authority,

and cooperating with others) may affect later outcomes as much as learning the

content of schooling.

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Executive Summary

Years of education and training, either preceding or following GED attainment,

have much more impact on labor market outcomes than the credential itself.

Hence, marginal students should be (and usually are) encouraged to finish high

school wherever possible. For those who do drop out, participation in alternative programs that have structure, rigor, and longevity may recoup some of the

advantages lost by not finishing high school. Education policy makers should

consider developing high school completion programs leading to a regular or

adult diploma. Along other lines, awarding higher levels of GED certification

for higher test scores, which educators in South Dakota are considering, may

provide an incentive for dropouts to invest more time and energy in studying for

the test. Those who pass the test should understand that GED certification is

primarily a stepping stone and that additional progress in the labor market can

best be made by completing postsecondary education and training programs.

Counseling to help GED recipients navigate in college could also be a useful

measure.

In some respects, GED recipients resemble high school graduates; in others,

they resemble dropouts; in still other ways, they fall between the two. Given

these mixed findings, the common practice of counting GEDs as high school

graduates in educational statistics should be reconsidered.

Further, we should keep in mind that neither the high school diploma nor "some

college" have been sufficient to enable young adults to maintain earnings over

the years since the 1970s. It seems unlikely that, in the absence of other

macroecononmic changes, education policy alone can reverse this trend.

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