Table of Contents

Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................1

Analysis Area................................................................................................................................................................1

Scope of Analysis..........................................................................................................................................................3

Visitor Capacity Methodology .....................................................................................................................................3

Visitor Capacity Definition ........................................................................................................................................3

Types of Visitor Capacity...........................................................................................................................................3

Calculating Shoreline II Visitor Capacity ...................................................................................................................4

Capacity Locations................................................................................................................................................4

Seasons.................................................................................................................................................................7

Average Group Size...............................................................................................................................................7

Considerations and Assumptions.........................................................................................................................7

Shoreline II Visitor Capacities......................................................................................................................................9

References..................................................................................................................................................................11

Appendix A. Capacity Location Maps........................................................................................................................12

List of Figures

Figure 1. Shoreline II Visitor Capacity Analysis Area ....................................................................................................2

Figure 2. Example of site grouping between the summer and fall-winter-spring seasons..........................................6

List of Tables

Table 1. Visitor capacity estimates for the Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka Ranger Districts and Admiralty National 

Monument....................................................................................................................................................................9
Introduction

This document updates the 2001 visitor capacity analysis developed for the one-half mile shoreline zone of 

Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka Ranger Districts and Admiralty National Monument (USDA Forest Service 2001). This 

update incorporates current information about recreation use within the analysis area, integrates changes that 

have occurred since 2001 (e.g., 2008 Forest Plan revision), draws from the latest information on visitor capacity 

methodologies, and learns from other recent Tongass visitor capacity examples. The intent of this document is 

also to provide rationale to guide decision-making for allocating outfitter/guide use. Therefore, variables used in 

this analysis (e.g., season dates and group size) were based on current guided use information. Capacities were 

developed in a manner that will facilitate outfitter/guide permit administration on the Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka 

Ranger Districts and Admiralty National Monument; and results of this analysis will be used in a revision of the 

2004 Shoreline Outfitter/Guide decision. 

In addition to helping with allocation decisions within the guided and unguided sectors, visitor capacities also 

provide predictability for local businesses and communities, help assess when recreation demand may warrant an 

expansion of current supply, and can serve as a trigger for increased, area-specific management attention (Haas 

2002). This analysis will allow managers to continue to accommodate an economically viable outfitter and guide

industry while maintaining the integrity of forest resources to the benefit of all users.

Forest Service regulations and policy do not define what is meant by visitor capacity or prescribe a specific 

method for estimating a numerical capacity. Forest Service outfitting and guiding policy includes the following 

direction:

"When monitoring demonstrates that impacts associated with use may exceed desired conditions, conduct 

a resource capacity analysis to assess the amount of use and types of activities that may be conducted 

without detrimental environmental and associated impacts." (FSH 2709.14 part 53.1f(2)).

Monitoring indicates that although a high amount of use is concentrated in a few areas and locations, existing use 

levels are generally low and can be accommodated without causing unacceptable impacts to the environment or 

visitor experience. There is an advantage to addressing visitor capacity proactively, however, before impacts 

become unacceptable or conflict develops among stakeholders (Haas 2002, Whitaker et al. 2010).

It is important to note that a visitor capacity, in and of itself, does not imply any management action to limit or 

encourage use. Capacity is one component of a management prescription that also includes management 

objectives, desired future conditions, resource condition standards, and a plan for monitoring (Stankey and 

Manning 1986). While visitor capacities can inform decisions and commitments, they are not themselves

commitments (Whitaker et al. 2010).

Visitor capacities will be reviewed periodically to ensure that assumptions made about recreation use trends and 

impacts still apply, and to incorporate new science, information, policies, trends, plans and other circumstances of 

importance. If monitoring indicates that the visitor capacities identified in this analysis are incompatible with the 

desired social conditions or resource conditions identified in the Tongass National Forest Land and Resource 

Management Plan (USDA Forest Service 2008), then capacities will be adjusted accordingly.

Analysis Area

The analysis area comprises National Forest System lands within the Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka Ranger Districts 

and Admiralty National Monument; it does not include State, Native, or private lands within or adjacent to the 

National Forest. The original analysis divided the analysis area into 37 Use Areas to facilitate capacity 

development. These Use Areas were reviewed and modified to gain administrative efficiencies (e.g., original Use 

Area overlapped Ranger Districts, the new Use Area is split at the district boundary) and to resolve conflicting 

resource management goals (e.g., original Use Areas combined designated wilderness and non-wilderness lands, 

several of the new Use Areas separate designated wilderness lands and non-wilderness lands to allow for a more 

1
Figure 1. Shoreline II Visitor Capacity Analysis Area.

2
targeted approach to capacity within those areas). Changes in use patterns also resulted in modifying Use Areas, 

as well as the additions of the Cross-Admiralty Canoe Route and the Pack Creek Zoological Area (excluding 

summer season). Modifications resulted in a total of 48 Use Areas (Figure 1). Two Use Areas (04-05B Mitchell 

Bay and 01-04E Juneau Icefields) continue to be excluded from the analysis area. Mitchell Bay is being analyzed 

separately, and the Juneau Icefields are outside the scope of this analysis.

Scope of Analysis

The focus of this analysis is on non-motorized land-based activities that originate from the marine shoreline. 

Recreationists traveling by boat (e.g., sightseeing, fishing) or anchored on the saltwater who do not set foot on 

the National Forest are not considered in the visitor capacity figures.

Visitor Capacity Methodology

There is no established methodology in Forest Service policy for developing numerical visitor capacities (Cole and 

Carlson 2010). There is some level of uncertainty in describing and analyzing recreational use. Due to conditions 

varying from weather to wildlife sightings to the state of financial markets, the location, type, and amount of 

recreational use in any area changes irregularly, which makes calculating capacity difficult. Different Forest Service 

districts have used different approaches to setting visitor capacity and allocating between guided and unguided 

visitors, each district determines what fits best for their area. 

Visitor Capacity Definition

The 2004 Shoreline Outfitter/Guide decision defined recreation capacity as “the number of recreation users that 

can be accommodated in a given area without loss of the quality of the natural environment and/or the visitor 

experience” (USDA Forest Service, 2004, Appendix F, p. 10). This definition has not changed for this update;

however, the terminology has been changed from “recreation” to “visitor” capacity in keeping with current 

thinking regarding capacity analysis (Cole and Carlson 2010). It should also be noted that visitor capacity is an 

administrative decision about a reasonable number of recreation opportunities that will be managed for, which is 

consistent with and helps achieve the full management prescription for an area (Whittaker et al. 2010). 

Types of Visitor Capacity

In the past, multiple capacities were developed based on physical, facility, ecological, and social resources. 

Current thinking suggests that managers take a more holistic approach to developing a numerical visitor capacity 

(Cole and Carlson, 2010). Visitor capacity has both environmental and social dimensions. Visitor use can affect 

biophysical resources such as soils, vegetation, water, and wildlife, and it can degrade the quality of visitor 

experiences through crowding, conflicting uses, or aesthetic effects on the environment (Whittaker et al. 2010).

Unfortunately, there is a lack of baseline information about both the natural environment in and around 

recreational use sites and the environmental impacts of recreational use in the analysis area. Even if there was 

additional information available, scientists agree that the relationship between visitor use and impacts is often 

weak (Haas 2007) and poorly understood. Integrating resource and social information into visitor capacity 

decision-making has always been a challenge for managers and researchers (Newman et al. 2001).

One way that managers can address these challenges is by identifying which resources are most likely to be at risk 

with high levels of visitor use (Cole and Carlson 2010). For this analysis, the social experience has been 

determined to be the most limiting factor (meaning that visitor experiences suffer from crowding before the 

natural resource suffers impacts) to determine the appropriate recreation capacity levels in the analysis area, 

which is consistent with the 2004 Shoreline Outfitter/Guide analysis and other outfitter/guide capacity analyses

on the Tongass. 

3
Calculating Shoreline II Visitor Capacity

The Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka Ranger Districts and Admiralty National Monument chose a methodology that is 

simple in concept and is repeatable to facilitate future capacity updates, as needed. In contrast to the 2001 

analysis, visitor service day was chosen as the unit of measure rather than groups-at-one-time. This change will 

allow more accurate translation to the outfitter/guide permitting process, which authorizes commercial use in 

service days. A service day is defined as “a day or any part of a day on National Forest System lands for which an 

outfitter or guide provides services to a client” (FSH 2709.14 part 53.1e).

The formula: Visitor Capacity = # of capacity locations x # of days in season x average group size

Capacity Locations

These are defined as locations used to calculate visitor capacities and were identified based on information 

gathered on current recreational use patterns. The following describes the process used to determine the 

number of Capacity Locations within each Use Area.

Step 1. A dataset was compiled of known recreation use sites within the analysis area from the following

sources:

a. Tongass Outfitter and Guide Database1 for all known locations used by guides within the analysis

area.

b. Outfitter/guides were asked at annual meetings and information worksheet mailings.

c. The general public was queried using public meetings, information worksheets, newspaper 

advertisements, radio interviews, and in-person contacts in the field.

d. Forest Service staff was asked at district IDT meetings and informal conversations.

e. Field monitoring was conducted by Forest Service staff, contractors, partners, and volunteers 

during the summer seasons in 2011, 2012, and 2013.

f. Internal recreation site databases (INFRA Wild and Recreation Use Site GIS layer).

Step 2. Recreation use sites were then grouped together and considered a single location to eliminate 

double counting of sites that were identified in more than one of the processes listed above. Sites 

were also grouped together to integrate Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) social experience 

standards identified in the Forest Plan Land Use Designations (LUD). Grouping was done using the 

following criteria: 

a. Sites within sight or sound of each other.

b. Sites that met proximity guidelines. 

Proximity Guidelines

Three LUD/ROS categories were identified for grouping sites; buffer distances were developed for 

each based on the ROS Remoteness setting standards in the Forest Plan: 

i. Wilderness LUD (Primitive ROS Class with site-specific exceptions): 3-mile buffer for all 

seasons. 

ii. Non-Wilderness LUD (Primitive, Semi-Primitive Non-Motorized, and Semi-Primitive 

Motorized ROS Classes): 1-mile buffer for summer season; 2-mile buffer for fall-winterspring seasons.

iii. Non-Wilderness LUD (Roaded Natural, Roaded Modified, and Rural ROS Classes): 1⁄2- mile 

buffer for summer season; 1-mile buffer for fall-winter-spring seasons.

1 The Tongass Outfitter and Guide Database is used to record and track information about actual guided use across the Tongass National 

Forest. Use information is submitted annually by outfitters and guides and includes specific data about location, date of use, activity, group 

size, and duration of stay. Information submitted for use between 2004 and 2012 was included in this analysis.

4
Wilderness LUD

The Wilderness Act of 1964 establishes standards that must be met when determining the capacity 

for commercial use in designated wilderness. The law mandates the preservation of wilderness 

character and that wilderness character must be upheld for any uses for which wilderness is 

administered. The legal definition of wilderness defines hallmark qualities of wilderness: natural, 

undeveloped, untrammeled and outstanding opportunities for solitude or a primitive and unconfined 

type of recreation. The law also checks unwilding agents, prohibiting commercial enterprise with a 

conditional and optional allowance for limited commercial services. 

Commercial use can only be authorized to the extent that it does not impair wilderness character. 

Since this analysis is focusing on the social experience as the limiting factor, this means that 

Outstanding Opportunities for Solitude is the most sensitive indicator for wilderness character and 

that protecting it should ensure that the other qualities fare well. In order to uphold Outstanding 

Opportunities for Solitude in wilderness, this analysis applies a three-mile buffer around recreation 

use sites, for all seasons, to provide adequate spacing between groups. Three miles is used as the 

buffer distance because:

• It represents the ROS Remoteness setting standard of being beyond the sights and sounds of 

other human activity.

• It is the approximate distance at which kayaking groups lose sight of one another (David 

Burch, Fundamentals of Kayak Navigation); kayaking is a common wilderness recreation 

experience sought within and/or adjacent to the analysis area.

In providing an optional and conditional allowance for commercial services, the Wilderness Act 

authorizes such uses “to the extent necessary.” Visitor capacity and commercial allocation can be 

framed quantitatively (how many), spatially (where) and temporally (when) and these parameters 

must be applied to ensure that any commercial authorization only occurs to the extent necessary.

 

This analysis establishes overall recreation visitor capacity across the analysis area. Wilderness 

Commercial Needs Assessments were completed for all six wilderness areas within the analysis area 

and are additionally used as a basis for this capacity analysis (USDA Forest Service, 2014a-d and 2013). 

This analysis further applies the extent necessary parameters to visitor capacity by using the threemile buffer zones for focal locations within Use Areas. The extent necessary will also be taken into 

account in ascribing use levels in the next phase of the Shoreline II project (environmental analysis) by 

assessing the relationship between management goals, resource concerns, historic commercial use 

levels and capacity determinations. 

More refined extent necessary measures should be considered at local administrative levels, such as 

environmental assessments, prospectus competitive bid processes and permit authorizations. 

Additional quantitative, spatial and temporal considerations could include prohibiting commercial use 

in areas popular for local or subsistence use, limiting commercial numbers during times of high local 

use such as holidays or opening days of hunting/fishing seasons and further limiting commercial 

allocation numbers should such use impact wilderness character before Shoreline II maximum 

allocation levels are reached.

Non-Wilderness LUDs

The ROS Remoteness setting standard for the more developed LUD category (Roaded Natural to 

Rural) has the expectation of being within one-half mile or less of human activity. The standard for

the less developed Non-Wilderness LUD category (Semi-Primitive to Primitive) has the expectation of 

being no closer than one-half mile (depending on terrain) to human activity. One-half mile was used 

as a starting point for the more developed LUD for the summer season buffer distance; this was then 

5
doubled to one mile for the Semi-Primitive to Primitive category for the summer season to take into 

account the more remote setting expectations. 

For the fall-winter-spring seasons, the buffer sizes were doubled based on the general assumption 

that parties recreating in the “off-season” have the expectation of fewer encounters with other 

parties. The larger buffers during the fall, winter, and spring seasons encompassed more sites 

(grouping more sites together), which translates into a smaller total number of Capacity Locations. 

This in turn, results in a lower overall visitor capacity. Figure 2 illustrates the difference between the 

seasons after sites were grouped. 

Appendix A provides a map for each Use Area for the summer and fall-winter-spring seasons that 

illustrate Capacity Locations.

Summer Season = 12 Capacity Locations Fall-Winter-Spring Seasons = 7 Capacity Locations

Figure 2. Example of site grouping between the summer and fall-winter-spring seasons. 

 

6
Seasons

This variable was defined as the number of calendar days in each season. Dates of each season were determined 

by the 2004 Shoreline Outfitter/Guide decision with some modifications based on current use patterns. Seasons 

were defined as follows and Table 1 lists the actual tally of days for each Use Area:

1. Spring: March 15 to May 20/May 31. Season start date was extended to earlier in the year to 

accommodate demand for guided activities and align with the start of brown bear hunting season. There 

was no change to the season end dates, which are determined by the brown bear hunting season closure.

2. Summer: May 21/June 1 to September 14. Season start date for each Use Area was determined by the 

brown bear hunting season closure. There is no change in summer dates from the 2004 decision.

3. Fall: September 15 to December 31. There was no change to the season start date. Season end date was 

extended to accommodate demand for guide activities and align with the brown bear hunting season 

closure.

4. Winter: January 1 to March 14. Although not included in the 2004 decision, a winter season was included 

in this analysis to provide opportunities for winter guiding. There is currently a limited demand for guide 

activities in the winter season. 

Average Group Size

This was determined for each Use Area using current actual use data from the Tongass Outfitter and Guide 

Database for each season. A five year average was calculated based on data from 2008-2012. For those Use 

Areas that adequate data did not exist, the average across all Use Areas for the pertinent season was used. For 

the purposes of this analysis, adequate data was defined as 20 or more groups using the area during the five year 

period; and use occurred at least three out of the five years. In a few cases where there was lack of data, the 

adjacent use area average was determined more representative of the use patterns and was used in lieu of the 

project-wide seasonal average. For example, 04-15B and 04-15C in the West Chichagof-Yakobi Wilderness 

receives little use in the summer season. The adjacent use area (04-15D), which also encompasses wilderness 

lands, receives enough use to generate an average group size of 4.7. Rather than using the project-wide summer 

average of 6.8, the lower average group size was used. 

Considerations and Assumptions

The decision to include known recreation use sites in the analysis, versus all accessible acreage, is consistent with 

the definition of visitor capacity as a “reasonable use level” for Forest Plan standards and guidelines. The decision 

is based on the assumption that certain locations are attractive to visitors because of the types of recreation 

opportunities available (e.g. salmon streams for fishing, hiking trails, camping locations, and public use cabins), 

ease of access, and unique scenic qualities. Large portions of the district are inaccessible and/or less desirable for 

recreational use, which tends to be concentrated over time (e.g. during a particular hunting or fishing season) and 

space, rather than evenly distributed.

This analysis is based on the assumption that recreation activities and impacts will continue to be concentrated in 

areas where access is feasible and desirable recreational opportunities exist (e.g. fishing and hunting). A 

calculation of visitor capacity based on overall acreage of the Use Area may exceed the “reasonable use level” 

that can be accommodated without unacceptable impacts to resources, wilderness character, and visitor 

experiences in the areas of actual use. It is important to note that when this capacity analysis is revisited, 

additional monitoring information will be available and new capacity locations may be included or excluded based 

on changes in guided and unguided use and impacts, and Forest Service policies.

For each Use Area, the number of Capacity Locations was multiplied by the number of days in each season to 

calculate visitor capacity in groups. In order to calculate visitor capacity in number of visitor service days, which is 

7
the unit used in outfitter and guide permit administration, the capacity expressed as the number of groups was 

multiplied by average guided group size for each Use Area.

The decision to use average guided group size was based on the following considerations and assumptions:

• Little information exists about the size of unguided groups visiting the analysis area, and monitoring and 

experience show that guided and unguided group sizes tend to be similar. 

• Similar types of guided and unguided activities occur in many areas. Guided and unguided visitors are 

drawn to similar areas for similar experiences and unguided group sizes are determined by the type of 

activity and experience being sought by the visitor.

The visitor capacity calculation is based on the conservative assumption that only one group can be 

accommodated at each Capacity Location each day during the season. In reality, a location may be able to 

accommodate several groups in one day without negative impacts to visitor experience. For example, a group 

may spend two hours hiking a trail in the morning and then depart, and other groups may arrive to hike the trail 

throughout the remainder of the same day. Conversely, the visitor capacity calculation is also based on the 

assumption that each location can be used each day of the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. In reality, 

many locations are not used regularly; factors such as weather, snow cover, and availability of desired recreation 

opportunities (e.g., fish runs) influence the amount of use that occurs, or does not occur, in a particular location 

each day. As a result, a balance is created by including both liberal and conservative assumptions in the visitor 

capacity calculations. The formula described results in a reasonable number of people that can be 

accommodated in a given Use Area and season, without detriment to the resource or visitor experience. 

8
Shoreline II Visitor Capacities

The following table lists the visitor capacity estimates (expressed in service days) for the analysis area based on the new Use Areas. The Use Areas with 

designated wilderness are shaded in the table below.

 

Table 1. Visitor capacity estimates for the Juneau, Hoonah, and Sitka Ranger Districts and Admiralty National Monument. 

Use 

Area

# of 

Capacity 

Locations

Fall-WinterSpring

# of 

Capacity 

Locations

Summer

Spring

(March 15 – May 20 or 31)

Summer

(May 21 or June 1– Sept 14)

Fall

(Sept 15 – Dec 31)

Winter

(Jan 1 – March 14)

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

01-01 6 7 78 4.0 1,872 106 6.0 4,452 108 4.0 2,592 73 4.0 1,752

01-02 2 3 78 2.0 312 106 4.0 1,272 108 2.0 432 73 2.0 292

01-03 9 13 78 3.1 2,206 106 5.4 7,472 108 3.2 3,110 73 3.2 2,102

01-04A 3 4 78 4.3 1,006 106 6.8 2,886 108 3.2 1,037 73 3.2 701

01-04B 4 8 78 4.3 1,342 106 8.9 7,516 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

01-04C 10 16 78 4.3 3,354 106 6.8 11,533 108 3.2 3,456 73 3.2 2,336

01-04D 1 1 78 4.3 335 106 5.8 617 108 3.2 346 73 3.2 234

01-05A 1 2 78 4.8 373 106 5.7 1,200 108 3.2 346 73 3.2 234

01-05B 10 20 78 8.8 6,864 106 12.1 25,652 108 3.2 3,456 73 3.2 2,336

01-05C 9 19 78 6.0 4,212 106 11.4 22,960 108 3.2 3,110 73 3.2 2,102

01-05D 3 3 78 4.3 1,006 106 6.8 2,162 108 3.6 1,168 73 3.2 701

01-05E 2 2 78 4.3 671 106 7.2 1,526 108 3.2 691 73 3.2 467

01-05F 7 7 78 4.7 2,540 106 8.2 6,119 108 2.0 1,512 73 3.2 1,635

04-01A 5 5 78 4.6 1,785 106 6.0 3,199 108 2.5 1,362 73 3.2 1,168

04-01B 7 12 78 5.7 3,125 106 6.3 7,950 108 3.2 2,419 73 3.2 1,635

04-01C 3 4 67 4.3 864 117 6.8 3,182 108 3.2 1,037 73 3.2 701

04-02A 6 12 78 4.3 2,012 106 10.4 14,602 108 3.2 2,074 73 3.2 1,402

04-02B 14 14 78 3.3 3,572 106 3.9 5,829 108 1.7 2,576 73 3.2 3,270

04-02C 6 13 78 4.3 2,012 106 6.8 9,370 108 3.2 2,074 73 3.2 1,402

04-02D 7 11 78 2.5 1,340 106 3.6 4,172 108 3.2 2,419 73 3.2 1,635

04-03 33 50 78 4.8 12,355 106 5.6 29,680 108 3.7 13,187 73 3.2 7,709

04-04A 4 8 67 4.3 1,152 117 11.4 10,670 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-04B 10 22 67 4.3 2,881 117 10.3 26,512 108 3.9 4,253 73 3.2 2,336

04-04C 1 4 67 4.3 288 117 3.6 1,675 108 3.2 346 73 3.2 234

9
Use 

Area

# of 

Capacity 

Locations

Fall-WinterSpring

# of 

Capacity 

Locations

Summer

Spring

(March 15 – May 20 or 31)

Summer

(May 21 or June 1– Sept 14)

Fall

(Sept 15 – Dec 31)

Winter

(Jan 1 – March 14)

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

# of 

Calendar 

Days

Avg. 

Group 

Size

Visitor 

Capacity

04-05A 5 5 67 2.0 660 117 4.1 2,425 108 3.2 1,728 73 3.2 1,168

04-06A 4 4 67 3.8 1,018 117 7.2 3,370 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-06B 4 4 67 3.8 1,011 117 7.3 3,436 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-07A 4 4 67 4.3 1,152 117 5.9 2,765 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-07B 5 5 67 4.3 1,452 117 5.2 3,036 108 3.2 1,728 73 3.2 1,168

04-08 8 8 67 4.3 2,305 117 6.8 6,365 108 3.2 2,765 73 3.2 1,869

04-09A 5 5 67 4.3 1,441 117 6.8 3,978 108 3.2 1,728 73 3.2 1,168

04-09B 5 * 67 4.3 1,441 * * * 108 3.2 1,728 73 3.2 1,168

04-10A 1 1 67 4.3 288 117 8.5 999 108 5.3 572 73 3.2 234

04-10B 11 12 67 4.3 3,169 117 4.0 5,148 108 3.2 3,802 73 3.2 2,570

04-11A 8 12 67 4.3 2,305 117 5.4 7,582 108 3.2 2,765 73 3.2 1,869

04-11B 8 13 67 4.3 2,305 117 6.5 9,887 108 11.0 9,504 73 3.2 1,869

04-12 12 20 67 2.0 1,608 117 4.3 9,954 108 3.2 4,147 73 3.2 2,803

04-13 14 24 67 4.3 4,033 117 7.2 20,218 108 2.9 4,385 73 3.2 3,270

04-14 7 7 78 2.3 1,245 106 4.2 3,145 108 3.2 2,419 73 3.2 1,635

04-15A 10 17 78 4.3 3,354 106 2.6 4,755 108 3.2 3,456 73 3.2 2,336

04-15B 9 9 78 4.3 3,019 106 4.7 4,484 108 3.2 3,110 73 3.2 2,102

04-15C 3 3 78 4.3 1,006 106 4.7 1,495 108 3.2 1,037 73 3.2 701

04-15D 7 7 78 4.3 2,348 106 4.7 3,487 108 3.2 2,419 73 3.2 1,635

04-16A 4 7 78 4.3 1,342 106 4.9 3,650 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-16B 5 10 78 2.1 814 106 4.6 4,888 108 3.2 1,728 73 3.2 1,168

04-16C 6 9 78 11.7 5,476 106 11.0 10,494 108 3.2 2,074 73 3.2 1,402

04-16D 4 4 78 4.3 1,342 106 4.2 1,769 108 3.2 1,382 73 3.2 934

04-16E 6 7 78 11.9 5,569 106 12.7 9,423 108 3.2 2,074 73 3.2 1,402

*04-09B Pack Creek Zoological Area – The summer season from June 1 to September 10 is covered under a separate environmental analysis, and will 

not be covered under Shoreline II. The period from September 11 – 14 will be amended into the existing Pack Creek Zoological Area NEPA at the next 

available opportunity.

10
References

Cole, D. and T. Carlson. 2010. Numerical visitor capacity: A guide to its use in wilderness. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRSGTR-247. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 20 p.

Haas, G. E. 2002. Visitor Capacity on Public Lands and Waters: Making Better Decisions. A Report of the Federal 

Interagency Task Force on Visitor Capacity on Public Lands. Submitted to the Assistant Secretary for Fish and 

Wildlife and Parks, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington D.C. May 1, 2002. Published by the National 

Recreation and Park Association, Ashburn, Virginia.

Haas, G. E. 2007. The Myths of Visitor Capacity. Parks & Recreation September 2007, The Myths of Visitor 

Capacity.

Newman, P., J. L. Marion, and K. Cahill. 2001. Integrating resource, social, and managerial indicators of quality into 

carrying capacity decision-making. George Wright Forum 18(3): 28-40.

Stankey, G. and R. Manning. 1986. Carrying capacity of recreation settings. A Literature Review: The President's 

Commission on Americans Outdoors. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, M-47-M-57.

USDA Forest Service. 2014a. Tracy Arm-Ford’s Terror & Chuck River Wilderness Commercial Needs Assessment, 

Juneau Ranger District, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2014b. Determination of Need for Commercial Services, Pleasant/Lemesurier/Inian Islands 

Wilderness Area, Hoonah Ranger District, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2014c. Determination of Need for Commercial Outfitter/Guide Services in the South Baranof 

Wilderness, Sitka Ranger District, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2014d. Determination of Need for Commercial Outfitter/Guide Services in the West 

Chichagof-Yakobi Wilderness, Sitka Ranger District, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2013. Kootznoowoo Wilderness Commercial Needs Assessment, Admiralty Island National 

Monument, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2008. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan. Tongass National Forest. R10-MB603b. Juneau, AK: USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region.

USDA Forest Service. 2004. Shoreline Outfitter/Guide Record of Decision and Final Environmental Impact 

Statement, Volume I-III, R10-MB-519c.

USDA Forest Service. 2001. Shoreline-Based Recreation Carrying Capacity Analysis for the Admiralty Island 

National Monument, Hoonah, Juneau, and Sitka Ranger Districts, Tongass National Forest.

Whitaker, D., B. Shelby, R., Manning, D., Cole, and G. Haas. 2010. Capacity reconsidered: Finding consensus and 

clarifying differences. Marienville, PA: National Association of Recreation Resource Planners.

11
Appendix A. Capacity Location Maps

12