APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTI ONS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ...................................................................................... 10A-1

10A-iAPPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIO NS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT
ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS
The results obtained in the shipments and nation al impact analysis (NIA) analyses can be examined and reproduced using the Microsof t Excel spreadsheets available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s website at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_st andards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html.

The spreadsheets are called “NIA_SmallMotor_CS.xls” and “NIA_SmallMotor_Polyphase.xls” and they enable the user to perform a national impact analysis of small electric motor standards for two product categories: pol yphase and capacitorstart (including capacitor-start induction-run (CSI R) and capacitor-start capacitor-run (CSCR)) motors. To run the spreadsheets, the user needs to have Microsoft Excel 2003 or a later version.

The NIA spreadsheets perform calculations to forecast the changes in national energy (NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an energy conservation standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determ ined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for a product class. The differences between the standards and base cases (absent a nati onal standard) can then be co mpared and the NES and NPV determined.

Polyphase

The polyphase NIA spreadsheet, or workbook, consists of the following worksheets:

Introduction This worksheet summarizes the context for DOE’s rulemaking and describes the NES and NPV concepts.

Worksheet Directory This worksheet contains the sa me worksheet descriptions as this appendix.

Scenario Selection This sheet allows the user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to calculate the NES and NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate, the market growth model, the elasticity to enclosed motors, the electricity price scenario, and the fraction of reactive power costs to include in the NPV.

NIA Summary This worksheet summarizes the results of the NIA analysis. It shows the aggregate shipments along with the difference in purchase and operating costs a nd energy consumption between

10A-1NIA Details

ShipmentsDrivers

ShipmentsForecast

Shipments Forecast Chart

Standards-Case Shipments

Shipments Data

Retirement Function

LCC Inputs & Effic. Distrib. the base and each considered standards case. It collects these values to show the NES and NPV for each trial standard level.

This worksheet provides the accounting and results for both the energy and economic impacts of each standard level for polyphase small electric motors. This is the main calculation worksheet for this product category and integrates the appropriate inputs from each of the other worksheets.

This worksheet provides the data for the macro-economic drivers for small electric motors shipments. A macro-economic driver is a factor in the national economy that influences the demand for small electric moto r sales. The three drivers selected by the DOE for small electric motor shipments include the value of manufacturing sh ipments, the amount of total commercial floor space, and the total number of residential homes.

This worksheet provides the detailed forecast of polyphase motor shipments by product class.

This chart shows the total polyphase small motor shipment forecasts in each of the four considered market growth scenarios.

This chart shows the shipments in the base and standards cases, illustrating the effects of elasticity.

This worksheet provides the i nput data that were used for initiating the shipments model with shipments by product class for 2008.

This worksheet contains the small electric motor retirement function and produces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement generated in this work sheet are used to calculate the annual retirements in the stock columns of the NIA Details sheet.

Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individual design lines (1 hp, 4 pole motor only). These data provide the inputs regarding incr eases of initial cost, and the decrease in energy consumption per motor for each standard level. This sheet also provides the efficiency distribution for the base case and each standards case, and calculates the

10A-2shipment-weighted cost, energy us e, and reactive power for the representative product class.

Scaling Costs & Losses This worksheet implements the Departments’ scaling relations for price, losses, and re active power, between the representative product class a nd each of the other product classes. It shows the efficien cy (in percent) corresponding to each efficiency level, for each product class.

Electricity Prices+Heat Rates This worksheet provides the marg inal heat rates (the ratio of source energy to site energy), th e long term energy price trends (in each of four scenarios), a nd the retail energy prices for small electric motors. It also contains several parameters for determining the cost and pr imary energy requirements of reactive power.

Basic instructions for operating the pol yphase NIA spreadsheets are as follows:

After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the wo rksheet “Scenario Selection.” This worksheet provides the controls for choosing which combina tion of input and model parameters to use in summary calculations. The main parameter that affects the NPV is the discount rate. The worksheet allows the user to change the discount rate in cell E6. The results NES, NPV, and their constituent parts are then displa yed on the sheet “TSL Summary.”

Capacitor-Start

The capacitor-start NIA spreadsheet, or wo rkbook, consists of the following worksheets:

Introduction This worksheet summarizes the context for DOE’s rulemaking and describes the NES and NPV concepts.

Worksheet Directory This worksheet contains the same worksheet descriptions as this appendix.

Scenario Selection This sheet allows the user to select from a variety of parameters to define the scenario for which they wish to calculate the NES and NPV. Parameters include the national discount rate, the market growth model, the CSIR/CSCR market share model, the elasticity to enclosed motors, the electricity price scenario, and the fraction of reactive power costs to include in the NPV. The user may also select a pair of efficiency levels for CSIR and CSCR motors, and see the resulting NES and NPV displayed.

10A-3NIA Summary

Market Segmentation

NIA Details

ShipmentsDrivers

ShipmentsForecast

Shipments Forecast Chart

Standards-Case Shipments This worksheet summarizes the results of the NIA analysis. It shows the aggregate shipments along with the difference in purchase and operating costs a nd energy consumption between the base and each considered standards case. It collects these values to show the NES and NPV for each trial standard level. This sheet does NOT update au tomatically. Instead, the user must run a macro to generate this sheet by clicking on the button “Generate Summary.”

This worksheet summarizes the results of the NIA analysis in the segmented market scenario. It shows the same information as the “NIA Summary” sheet, but disaggregated into space constrained and non-space-constrai ned applications, as well as their sum. This sheet does NOT update automatically. Instead, the user must run a macro to ge nerate this sheet by clicking on the button “Generate Segmented Market Summary.”

This worksheet provides the accounting and results for both the energy and economic impacts of one standard level for capacitor-start small electric motors; the level analyzed is set by selecting a CSIR and CSCR level from the drop-down menus on the sheet “Scenario Se lection.” This is the main calculation worksheet for this pr oduct category and integrates the appropriate inputs from each of the other worksheets.

This worksheet provides the data for the macro-economic drivers for small electric motors shipments. A macro-economic driver is a factor in the national economy that influences the demand for small electric moto r sales. The three drivers selected by the DOE for small electric motor shipments include the value of manufacturing sh ipments, the amount of total commercial floor space, and the total number of residential homes.

This worksheet provides the detailed forecast of motor shipments by product class. It also implements the CSIR/CSCR market share model, and displays the current and forecast market shares for CSIR and CSCR motors under the selected combination of CSIR and CSCR efficiency levels.

This chart shows the total CSIR and CSCR small motor shipment forecasts in each of the four considered market growth scenarios.

This chart shows the shipments in the base and standards cases, illustrating the effects of elasticity. 10A-4Shipments Data This worksheet provides the i nput data that were used for initiating the shipments model with shipments by product class for 2008.

Retirement Function This worksheet contains the small electric motor retirement function and produces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement generated in this work sheet are used to calculate the annual retirements in the stock columns of the NIA Details sheet.

CSIR LCC Inputs & Effic Distrib Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individual design lines (1/2 hp, 4 pole CSIR motor only). These data provide the inputs regardi ng increases of in itial cost, and the decrease in energy consumption per motor for each standard level. This sheet also provides the CSIR efficiency distribution for the base case and each standards case, and calculates the shipment-weighted cost, energy use, and reactive power for the representative product class.

CSIR Scaling Costs & Losses This worksheet implements the Departments’ scaling relations for price, losses, and re active power, between the representative CSIR product cla ss and each of the other CSIR product classes. It shows th e efficiency (in percent) corresponding to each efficiency level, for each product class.

CSCR LCC Inputs & Effic Distrib Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individual design lines (3/4 hp, 4 pole CSCR motor only). These data provide the inputs regarding increases of initial cost, and the decrease in en ergy consumption per motor for each standard level. This sheet also provides the CSCR efficiency distribution for the base case and each standards case, and calculates the shipment-weighted cost, energy use, and reactive power for the re presentative product class.

CSCR Scaling Costs & Losses This worksheet implements the Departments’ scaling relations for price, losses, and re active power, between the representative CSCR product class and each of the other CSCR product classes. It shows th e efficiency (in percent) corresponding to each efficiency level, for each product class.

10A-5Electricity Prices+Heat Rates This worksheet provides the marg inal heat rates (the ratio of source energy to site energy), the long term energy price trends (in each of four scenarios), a nd the retail energy prices for small electric motors. It also contains several parameters for determining the cost and pr imary energy requirements of reactive power.

All Levels Summary This worksheet shows the same information as displayed on the “TSL Summary” sheet, but for every combination of possible standard levels for CS IR and CSCR motors. The user must click the button labeled “Generate Summary” to update this sheet to reflect user’s selected scenario. Tables show the results for both 7% and 3% disc ount rates. The Summary tables may be generated for the segmented market model instead by clicking on the “Mkt Seg Summary” button.

SummaryTable The calculations on the sheet “All Levels Summary” are used to populate this table, showing the NES, NPV at each discount rate, and CSIR and CSCR LCC savings for each combination of CSIR and CSCR efficiency levels. The combinations DOE chose as its TSLs are highlighted.

AllShipments This worksheet lists the ship ments of each product class under each of the Department’s 8 TSLs, as well as the base case. To update this sheet, the user mu st click on the button labeled “Generate AllShipments”

Mkt Segmented Shipments This worksheet lists the ship ments of each product class under each of the Department’s 8 TSLs, as well as the base case (no standards), using the segmented market model. To update this sheet, the user must click on th e button labeled “Generate Mkt Seg Shipments.”

CSIR CSCR Market Share Model This worksheet shows the calculations used to determine the parameters of the Department ’s CSIR/CSCR market share model, as well as the standard deviations for these parameters.

Basic instructions for operating the capacitor-start NIA spreadsheets are as follows:

After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the wo rksheet “Scenario Selection.” This worksheet provides the controls for choosing which combina tion of input and model parameters to use in summary calculations. The main parameter that affects the NPV is the discount rate. The worksheet allows the user to change the discount rate in cell E6. The results NES, NPV, and their

10A-6constituent parts are displayed on the sheet “TSL Summary” after the us er clicks the button on that sheet labeled “Generate Summary.”

10A-7