United States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Forest 

Service 

June 2011 

Appendix 

UPPER 

Project

Development 

Bradford Ranger District, Allegheny National Forest

Appendix D 

PPER KINZUA PROJECT

Project-Level Projections for Future 

Development 

Bradford Ranger District, Allegheny National Forest

Oil & Gas 
Appendix D – Projected Oil and Gas Development 

2 

Introduction 

This document describes three scenarios for future private oil and gas development (OGD) in 

the Upper Kinzua project area. These scenarios incorporate information on past OGD but 

make different assumptions regarding past development trends and likely future activities. 

Therefore, the scenarios encompass a range of potential development patterns that the 

Responsible Official evaluated when determining the intensity and spatial pattern of OGD 

that could be considered reasonably foreseeable private activities in the cumulative effects 

analysis for the Upper Kinzua Project. 

Detailed supporting information and descriptions of the methodologies used to generate the 

scenarios below can be found in two unpublished documents, the Programmatic Effects of 

Private Oil and Gas Activity on the Allegheny National Forest (USDA-FS 2010a) and SiteSpecific Effects of Private Oil and Gas Development on the Allegheny National Forest

(USDA-FS 2010b). These documents are considered the best available information on OGD 

on the Allegheny National Forest (ANF) and are in the project file for the Upper Kinzua 

Project located at the Bradford Ranger District Office. 

Assumptions for scenario development 

The Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the ANF Forest Plan listed general 

assumptions for estimating OGD and its effects (USDA-FS 2007b, FEIS – Appendix F, p. F-12). 

The two unpublished documents listed above revised some of these assumptions based on OGD 

after 2005 and more detailed data analysis. The scenarios below all use the following facts and 

general assumptions: 

• There were an estimated 1,897 wells in the 28,221 acres of the Upper Kinzua project area 

in 2010 (density of one well per 14.9 acres). 

• Existing and projected OGD on other lands is proportional to that on ANF lands (USDAFS 2010a, Attachment 2, p. 23). 

• On average, each existing well directly impacts approximately 1 acre. The ANF Forest 

Plan FEIS (Appendix F, p. F-12) states that existing OGD includes 0.156 mile of road per 

well. Using a 35 feet clearing limit for roads, the acres of disturbance connected with the 

road required for each well is approximately 0.7 acre. The well pad itself contributes an 

additional 0.3 acres of direct impact. 

• On average, new OGD directly impacts approximately 1.3 acres per well (includes well, 

road, tank batteries, and associated pipelines). For each new well drilled, an estimated 0.3 

acre is cleared for the well pad and an additional one acre is cleared for the access roads, 

tank batteries, and associated pipelines (ANF Forest Plan FEIS, p. 3-5 and USDA-FS 

2010a, Attachment 2, p. 23). 

• Plugging of abandoned wells would not reduce future well development. 

• The time frame for analysis of cumulative effects for the Upper Kinzua Project is from 

the present (2011) to approximately 20 years in the future (2030). 
Appendix D – Projected Oil and Gas Development 

3 

Scenario 1: Forest-wide average development prorated to project 

level 

The average rate of OGD from 1986 to 2005 was 225 wells per year across the entire Forest 

with a maximum quarterly rate of 800 wells per year (USDA-FS 2010a, Attachment 2, p. 18, 

Table 3). Averaging these two measures of OGD produces an estimate of 512 wells per year. 

Across the entire area of the ANF, this is a development rate of approximately 0.001 new 

wells per acre per year. This rate was used to estimate future well development within the 

Upper Kinzua Project area for the cumulative effects time frame. 

Projected future well development: 

Project area (28,221 acres) x 0.001 wells per year per acre x 20 years = 564 new wells 

Acres directly impacted: 564 wells x 1.3 acres/well = 734 acres 

Scenario 2: Recent development in the project area 

From 2006 to 2009, an average of 868 new wells per year was developed across the ANF 

(USDA-FS 2010a, p. 18). This rate of development is much higher than in the preceding 20 

year period used in Scenario 1 above, but development did not occur evenly across the 

Forest. From 2006 to 2010, 763 new wells were developed on National Forest System land 

within the project area at the time this analysis was conducted in 2010 (data from personal 

communication with ANF oil and gas administrators). Scenario 2 estimates future 

development by calculating this rate of development (152.6 wells per year) for the project 

area during the cumulative effects time frame. 

Projected future well development: 

152.6 wells per year x 20 years = 3,052 new wells 

Acres directly impacted: 3052 wells x 1.3 acres per well = 3967.6 acres 

Scenario 3: Full field development 

This scenario used GIS to identify a potential layout for future private OGD based on current 

and proposed well locations combined with known geologic, geographic, cultural and water 

features that would likely restrict OGD within the project area (see map below). This 

scenario is not meant to predict the site of any individual well but to generate a reasonably 

foreseeable spatial pattern of future development base on the best available information. 

A description of the methods and assumptions for developing this scenario is in the 

Programmatic Effects of Private Oil and Gas Development on the Allegheny National Forest

(USDA-FS 2010a, Attachment 2, p. 18-20). This scenario is the only one that considers how 

characteristics of the project area would limit development and identifies reasonable 

locations for individual wells. However, this scenario does not identify likely locations of 
Appendix D – Projected Oil and Gas Development 

4 

wells on private land and does not estimate for the rate of new well development or the total 

time period over which development would occur. For estimating future OGD on private 

land, it is assumed that development would occur at the same rate as on the Forest. For 

purposes of analysis and for consistency with the other scenarios, it is assumed that full field 

development would occur within the cumulative effects time frame. 

Projected future well development: 1,323 new wells 

Acres directly impacted: 1,323 wells x 1.3 acres per well = 1,721 acres 

Scenario selection and rationale 

Based on the information presented in this analysis and assessment of the Upper Kinzua 

project area, the Responsible Official determined that Scenario 3 best estimated reasonably 

foreseeable private oil and gas development. Note that this scenario does not propose oil and 

gas development or imply that notices to proceed would necessarily be granted for future 

private OGD in the analysis area. 

The selected scenario includes only shallow well development. The Responsible Official 

determined that Marcellus shale development is not a reasonably foreseeable future activity 

for the Upper Kinzua Project at the time this analysis was conducted. There is no active or 

proposed Marcellus shale development within the Upper Kinzua Project area. The nearest 

developments are one well drilled on private land roughly 300 feet southeast of the project 

area and one well on National Forest System Land, 1.25 miles to the south of the project area 

(data from "Operators with Active Wells Inventory" report on Pennsylvania DEP site 

http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/reports.htm accessed March 2011). 

Scenario 1 and 2 did not consider any site-specific information that could allow or limit 

future development rates. Neither of these scenarios considered the potential locations of 

wells or limitations to development in the project area. Development of over 3,000 wells 

projected by Scenario 2 is clearly not possible in the project area due to space limitations. By 

contrast, Scenario 3 used site-specific data regarding geological formations, existing OGD, 

and surface features that would likely affect development of individual well sites. Therefore, 

despite the uncertainty associated with predicting future private activities, the Responsible 

Official determined that the methods used for developing Scenario 3 were sufficiently 

rigorous for describing reasonably foreseeable future oil and gas development for the Upper 

Kinzua Project. 
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BR ADFORD RA NGER DISTRICT

MARIE NVILLE RANG ER DISTRICT

MXD: c:\gis\Project\BRAD_Project\EAUpperKinzua\GIS\MXD\OGM.mxdMap Product: c:\gis\Project\BRAD_Project\EAUpperKinzua\GIS\MapProduct\OGM041411.pdf

! Existing Wells

!( Long Term Projected Wells

! Short Term Proposed Wells

Project Boundary

Forest Proclamation Boundary

Roads

State or Municipal Road

Forest Road

Other Road

Trail

Ranger District Boundary

Utilities

Waterbody

! ! ! ! ! ! Stream

Ownership

Forest Service

Private Ownership

APPENDIX D

OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT

UPPER KINZUA

Bradford Ranger District

Allegheny National Forest

The Forest Service uses the most current and complete data available. GIS data and

product accuracy may vary. They may be: developed from sources of differing

accuracy, accurate only at certain scales, based on modeling or interpretation, incomplete

while being created or revised, etc. Using GIS products for purposes other than those

for which they were created, may yield inaccurate or misleadin g results. The Forest

Service reserves the right to correct, update, modify, or replace GIS products without

notification. The Forest Service will not be liable for any activity involving this information

1:60,000

04/14/2011, slk

1

0 2 1

Miles