Gray Research Center, 2040 Broadway Street, Quantico, VA 22134 • 703.432.5260 • www.mcu.usmc.mil

Just Another Election?

by Lieutenant Colonel Wolfram Jaeger (DEU)

Elections are an integral part of democracies and

regularly shape democratic societies either for the better or

for the worse. Furthermore, depending on a particular

country’s relative importance in the international sphere, the

impact of elections can travel beyond national borders.

On the world stage, Afghanistan is a minor player in

terms of exerting direct economic or political power. The

upcoming election in late summer to Wolesi Jirga (People’s

Council) is to award 249 seats in lower house of the Afghan

National Assembly (parliament) for five years. Viewed in

isolation, the upcoming election is of no great consequence

for the rest of the world. However, the potential impact of

this September 18th election may reach far beyond the

borders of the Hindu Kush and could, in fact, force the

political landscape in many countries to shift over the long

term.

The reportedly widespread election fraud of 2009,

mostly committed on behalf of the incumbent Hamid Karzai,

received a tepid response at best from the international

community and forced Afghans to accept the corruption and

the election results as a fait accompli. There were no

measures developed neither to combat the irregularities nor

mitigate the potential for future infractions. Karzai returned

to another term as president, there were no new elections,

and resentment grew within the Afghan population in the

same proportion to the voters in North America. Europeans

and others lost confidence in the promises of their own

politicians about Afghanistan.

Middle East Studies

at the Marine Corps University

MES Insights • Volume 1, Issue 4 September 2010

MES Notes

MES Iran Lecture Series

MES at MCU will be hosting the Iran

Lecture Series throughout the 2010-

2011 Acedemic Year entitled “Toward a

Better Understanding of the Islamic

Republic of Iran.” This Series will begin

in late October and run through May

2011.

More information about the Iran

Lecture Series, including some

background and a proposed agenda,

will be provided on the MES at MCU

website as it becomes available.

Further information and resources

pertaining to the MES Iran Lecture

Series, as well as the 2010 MES AfPak

Lecture Series, are available at :

http://www.mcu.usmc.mil/Pages/Middle

%20East%20Studies.aspx.

POC for MES Lecture Series is Mr.

Adam Seitz at (703) 432-5260 or

seitzac@grc.usmcu.edu.

MES at MCU Disclaimer

The opinions and conclusions

expressed herein are those of the

individual author and do not

necessarily represent the views of

either the Marine Corps University or

any other governmental agency. Any

references to this newsletter should

include the foregoing statement
Gray Research Center, 2040 Broadway Street, Quantico, VA 22134 • 703.432.5260 • www.mcu.usmc.mil

Despite last year’s disappointments, those both inside and outside of Afghanistan have

great expectations for the upcoming elections. Many candidates decided to accept the high

risks involved and have been campaigning where feasible. There are certain areas of the

country that are not accessible due to the deteriorated security environment, limiting

candidates’ electioneering to Kabul and other major cities. Further limiting the candidate pool

is the apparently arbitrary disqualification of certain candidates by the Afghan Electoral

Commission. International organizations had previously attacked the Commission’s lack of

momentum; however, the cryptic process it has elected to

follow leaves many dissatisfied with their lack of

transparency. Further complicating matters is the difficulty

in ascertaining the status of the relationship between the

candidates and the warlords and other clandestine groups.

Karzai believes he does not have much to fear in these

elections. He is banking on the election results being

accepted by the international community since their level of

tolerance for fraud appears to be quite high. Karzai may

have to weather a few official and unofficial protests, but

nothing more.. In certain areas Karzai's protégées are

expected to win their districts on their own merit and thus

broaden his power base. However, if they do not receive

the most votes and they happen to be from important,

influential districts, when the final votes are tallied, they are

expected to come out on top. Karzai is seeking to bolster

“his candidates’” chances by distancing himself from

Western governments and policies. As the election draws

near, his criticisms have increased to demonstrate to

Afghan voters he is not a Western puppet.

For the majority of the over 18,000 candidates, the goal

of this election is to gain influence over and access to

financial resources. No matter their walks in life, for most

candidates, the well-being of Afghanistan is secondary, and

for the minority who truly are concerned with the welfare

and future of Afghanistan, it is expected that they will

receive only a very small share of seats in the Wolesi Jirga.

At election time, the average Afghan is confronted with

the following fundamental questions: Is it safe for me to

go to the polls, or do I have to fear reprisals? If I take the

risk and vote, will my vote be counted at all - or will there

be rampant fraud as was the case during the presidential election? It is not about the actual

proportion of the electoral fraud, but rather the perception thereof. Why should the average

Afghan risk to serve the "Taliban" as a target when his vote may not be counted, thus

diminishing the prospect for change and his own benefit from the election? This attitude is

especially prevalent in those areas of the country where the central government is still not

present, or at least not permanently. The disillusionment grows in proportion to the perception

of anticipated electoral fraud.

MES Past Events and

Recent Publications

9 August 2010

Dr. Amin Tarzi presented a lecture

entitled “Recalibrating the Afghan

Reconciliation Program to the CMC

Fellows at the Navy Annex, Arlington,

VA.

17 August 2010

Dr. Amin Tarzi presented a PME

lecture entitled “The Historical

Relationship between State Formation

and Judicial System reform in

Afghanistan” to the US Army JAG

Legal Center and School,

Charlottesville, VA.

Recent Publication

Amin Tarzi, “Recalibrating the Afghan

Reconciliation Program”, in PRISM Vol

1 No 4, Journal for the Center for

Complex Operations (CCO), NDU

Press, Washington, D.C., Sept 2010.

Publication available at:

http://www.mcu.usmc.mil/Pages/Middle

%20East%20Studies.aspx, under the

Publications link..
Gray Research Center, 2040 Broadway Street, Quantico, VA 22134 • 703.432.5260 • www.mcu.usmc.mil

The "Taliban" - and there are many groups of differing motivations and objectives included in

this definition - are not represented officially at the election and therefore have no interest in its

success. Threats against those citizens willing to vote have increased. There have been attacks

on polling stations, and these will likely continue. As long as these groups are not involved in the

political process, they will not have a vested interest in its success. Why support a system that

brings no personal benefit? Better to antagonize it and prepare the way for a new apparatus - a

regime like the old “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” that promises benefits to those who are not

included in the existing Karzai governmental system. (Thus the term "extra-parliamentary

opposition" would be certainly appropriate for most of those we call “the Taliban”.)

Representatives of the numerous NGOs in Afghanistan are in a predicament. For them, this

election needs to be a success; otherwise the donations from their Western donor countries,

which fund their activities and their pay checks, will appreciably diminish. However, a closer

association with the elections, and thus the Afghan government increases their risk of being

targeted. Each additional dead or injured member of the international community leads to a

reduction in the NGOs’ profile in the rural areas, and as the elections near, this is expected to

increase due to continued Taliban attacks on “supporters of the system.”

But the real significance of the Afghan election is for United States and Europe. President

Barack Obama has declared Afghanistan a ‘top priority’ and thus connected his political destiny

with the success of the mission in Afghanistan. Defeat can no longer be blamed on the former

President George W. Bush. With the official announcement of the end of the combat phase of the

Iraq war, the president shifted, perhaps unintentionally, the focus of the American public opinion

to the development in Afghanistan. A failure there will impact the outcome of the U.S.

congressional elections. as well as the 2012 presidential election.

What does success look like? At a minimum, there needs to be a successful withdrawal of

foreign forces from a stabilized Afghanistan that has an accepted Afghan government, reasonably

fair elections, and popular political participation. If the Afghan people do not feel this is likely,

support for the "Taliban” will rise and complicate the situation, most likely resulting in higher

casualties, both local and from the international community.

This in turn will further weaken support in the U.S. and on the European continent. In addition

to the U.S. government, it is mainly the ruling political elites of Europe that have to fear the Afghan

elections. If there is another election deemed unsuccessful by the voters as a result of honestto-goodness fraud, ,the number of fatigued supporters of the Afghan campaign will increase. The

war-weary Europeans look primarily at the cost of ‘Mission Afghanistan.’ Nevertheless, with

increasing economic problems in Europe, the willingness to support an Afghan system perceived

as corrupt and fraudulent is expected to decline. Furthermore, European politicians who want to

be elected (or re-elected) may refrain from articulating their support for the Afghan government

too openly; otherwise they might receive the same treatment as the Dutch government. Christian

Democratic Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende had to offer his government’s resignation after

considering a NATO request for Dutch forces to stay beyond August 2010 in the southern Afghan

province of Uruzgan.

Finally, the main question remains unanswered even in the wake of the election for the Wolesi

Jirga: "Quo vadis, Afghanistan?”

As long as the International Community has not outlined and agreed upon a clear and concise

desired end state of affairs in Afghanistan, all elections in the Hindu Kush can - by proponents

and opponents of the current system - be perceived as wasted paper. So it is just another election.
Middle East Studies at Marine Corps University

Dr. Amin Tarzi • Director, MES • tarzia@grc.usmcu.edu

Adam C. Seitz • Senior Research Associate, MES • seitzac@grc.usmcu.edu

MES International Fellow AY 2010-2011 

Middle East Studies welcomes Lieutenant Colonel Wolfram Jaeger from the German Armed

Forces (Bundeswehr) as the new International Fellow of Middle East Studies at Marine Corps

University. LTC Jaeger has studied history, social sciences and international law at Bundeswehr

University in Hamburg, where he received an M.A. He has served on several missions abroad,

the last one as G2, German Contingent and Deputy J2 Regional Command North in 2007 - 2008.

His position prior to joining MES in July 2010 was Head of Military History Department at Army

Officer School in Dresden.

While at MES, LTC Jaeger’s research will be on ‘Stability and Stabilization of Regions’ with

special emphasis devoted to the Afghan/Pakistan region. From the many troop contributing states

to NATO’s International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, his research will focus on the

United States, the United Kingdom and Germany, looking at both military and civilian approaches.

LtCol Jaeger will be at MES until July 2011 and can be reached at:

Office: (703) 432-5296

E-mail: jaegerw@grc.usmcu.edu