DETROIT PARIS BERLIN SHANGHAI BANGALORE

September 7, 2011

FINAL

Aluminum in 2012 North American Light Vehicles 

Executive Summary

TRANSPORTATION CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS FINANCIAL
AGENDA

SURVEY OBJECTIVES, APPROACH AND RESULTS

SURVEY SYNOPSIS

2
SURVEY OBJECTIVES, APPROACH AND RESULTS

Primary Study Objective – Survey the North American automakers to obtain an accurate estimate of 2012 North American light vehicle 

aluminum content. 

Secondary Study Objective – Survey the North American automakers to obtain an estimate on the “most likely” material mix for North 

American light vehicles through 2025. All the most relevant factors affecting the future mix were taken into account including technology, cost, 

material availability and the recently announced fuel economy goal of 54.5 MPG by 2025.

Methodology – Ducker maintains a proprietary vehicle-by-vehicle 32,000 cell database on metallic materials in light vehicles and uses the 

database to forecast metallic material content and trends by segment, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and for as many as 90 

different components made from the major product forms for iron, flat rolled steel, aluminum and magnesium. During the spring/summer of 

2011, interviews were conducted with automotive engineers at the major auto manufacturers to update the Ducker database and discuss their 

future material strategies.

Results 

 Ducker estimates 343 pounds of finished aluminum per vehicle in 2012, up from 327 pounds in 2009. 

 Aluminum is expected to double its share of the average light vehicle material mix to 16% by 2025 compared to the 2008 Environmental 

Protection Agency (EPA) base year.

 Aluminum currently is the dominant material for powertrain, heat exchangers and road wheels and the study reveals it is rapidly gaining 

market share for hoods (30%), trunk lids, bumpers, steering knuckles and suspension arms.

 Average vehicle weight (not necessarily size) will be reduced by 408 pounds by 2025 or 10% less than the EPA base year of 2008.

 Aluminum is gaining share at the expense of both traditional and high strength steels (HSLA) which are declining as a percent of the mix.

 Advanced High Strength Steels, with a 590 MPa or more tensile, are also growing at the expense of inferior steels, but AHSS provides 

limited weight savings potential compared to aluminum. Pound for pound, aluminum replaces more than twice as much weight as AHSS.

 Direct cost of the materials upgrade is estimated at less than $500, before secondary any cost savings from downsized components are 

taken into account.

 Consumers will see high volume, aluminum-bodied vehicles on the road before the end of this decade.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Share of Curb Weight

Share of Curb Weight Under 54.5 

MPG Scenario

Flat Rolled BH, 

HSS & AHSS 

Share

Aluminum 

Share

Flat Rolled Mild 

Steel Share

3

2008 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Pounds

Aluminum Pounds 

per Light Vehicle

History and Identified Growth

77 lbs.

400 lbs.
SURVEY SYNOPSIS

 Current aluminum growth is driven by new applications for body, bumpers and closures. 

Thirty percent of all the hoods on 2012 vehicles will be aluminum; saving 100 million pounds of vehicle weight. Future 

growth will be driven primarily by the continued conversion of steel to aluminum in these same closure applications, body 

structures and bumpers. Aluminum saves weight because it has a density of only one third of AHSS. On stiffness 

dependent components (i.e. hoods, fenders, deck lids) increasing thickness of the aluminum to match steel component 

stiffness results in aluminum components at half the weight of the steel components they replace. Ducker estimates 

increasing average vehicle aluminum content by 225 pounds per vehicle by 2025 will result in 180 pounds vehicle weight 

reduction with no change in component performance. 

 Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) with a tensile strength of 590 MPa or above.

These steels don’t save enough weight. AHSS saves weight through gauge reduction. Due to stiffness limitations, there is 

a limit on how thin components such as hoods, deck lids, doors and fenders can be and maintain functionality. AHSS has 

the same density as mild steel. Use of AHSS is expected to increase by 250 pounds per vehicle by 2025 for strength 

driven body components. This will result in a maximum average vehicle savings of 80 pounds from the new steels. The 

AHSS under development simply improves the formability of current AHSS. The density of the new AHSS, soon to be 

introduced, will remain 2.9 times the density of aluminum.

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

10%

16%

19%

58%

0% 50% 100%

Heat Transfer

Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Wheels & Brakes

Average Increase

Steering

Suspension

Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closure

2009- 2012 Aluminum Content Growth

Engine Blocks, Closures, Bumpers,

Steering Knuckles, Differentials Carriers,

Powertrain Mounts and IP Structures are

expected to set all time content and

consumption records in 2012 

Over 200 million major parts

in 2012

4

50% 51% 54%

42% 38% 30%

8% 11% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2015 2025

Material Mix in Total is Shifting to Lower 

Density Materials as a % of Curb Weight

All other Materials Flat Rolled Steel Aluminum

100% Low Density

Aluminum

100% High Density

Flat Rolled Steel

75% Low Density

Polymers, zinc, 

steel long products, 

copper, iron, lead, 

magnesium, glass, 

rubber, textiles, 

wood, coatings 

and fluids 

(primarily closures)
SURVEY SYNOPSIS

 Aluminum will grow from 325 pounds in 2008 EPA base year to 550 pounds by 2025 and save 180 to 200 pounds of direct 

curb weight and 78 pounds of secondary curb weight. 

 The average cost of direct weight savings is estimated to be approximately $2.00 per pound of weight saved not including 

cost savings from secondary weight reductions. The 78 pounds of secondary weight savings will help offset this penalty.

 Increased use of aluminum is absolutely necessary to achieve a cost effective weight reduction of over 400 pounds by 

2025.

 Weight savings opportunities with AHSS are limited beyond conversion of the safety cage and a few other strength 

dependent parts. A few major OEMs have already reached this point in most of their vehicles. For these OEMs, increasing 

aluminum intensity is the logical next step.

 Adding 225 pounds of aluminum in less than 20 years is a dramatic increase. Based on history and identified new 

applications, North American OEMs will add 250 pounds in the period from 1990 to 2015. The 3.5% CAGR aluminum 

growth rate needed to attain 550 pounds and 16% of curb weight by 2025 is a conservative forecast in our opinion. 

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1975199020052020

Pounds per Vehicle

Aluminum Content in Pounds per Light Vehicle

- History and Forecast -

3.5% CAGR

2009 - 327

2012 - 343

The trend line continues 550 lbs.

to be supported by 

new aluminum applications 

12%

7%

11%

16%

2% 1% 5%

8%

2% 8%

3%

25%

Aluminum

16%

Curb Weight

3427 lbs.

2025 Light Vehicle Material Mix 

as a Percent of Curb Weight

Steel

46%

Non 

Metallics

25%

Other 

Metals

13%
AGENDA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

6
INTRODUCTION AND ASSUMPTIONS

Ducker Introduction

 Ducker Worldwide has collected data for the Aluminum Association’s Aluminum 

Transportation Group (ATG) on the growth and development of aluminum content in 

light vehicle applications on an annual basis since 1991. 

 Ducker started its systematic aluminum research efforts in North America in 1991, 

expanded into Europe and Japan in 2000 and the remainder of the world in 2007. 

 Ducker has been conducting studies on HSLA (high-strength, low-alloy) and AHSS 

use for the American Iron and Steel Institute since 2006.

 Ducker performed recent studies for the EPA and the Department of Energy (DOE) 

on metallic material options, including magnesium, for reducing vehicle weight up to 

25% in order to increase fuel economy. OEM interviews were a major part of these 

efforts.

 Ducker maintains a proprietary vehicle-by-vehicle 32,000 cell database on metallic 

materials in light vehicles, and uses the database to forecast metallic material content 

and trends by segment, OEM and for as many as 90 different components made from 

all the major product forms for iron, flat rolled steel, aluminum and magnesium. OEM 

and supplier input obtained on a regular basis is the major source of this data.

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 An average of at least 2.5% for GDP in the U.S over the next ten years. 

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Purchases + Net Exports

 North American light vehicle production of 13.9 million vehicles in 2012 with at least 75 

million vehicles produced in the period 2012 – 2016.

 A combined fuel economy standard of at least 51 mpg for 2025 will be put in place in 

the next twelve months, and remain in effect through administration changes in 

Washington.

 Specific aluminum products needed to fill the future demands of OEM’s and their parts 

suppliers will be available in a timely manner.

 The aluminum industry will provide the necessary technical support to satisfy OEM 

and parts suppliers needs for the latest aluminum technology.

 Oil prices will remain between $80 and $120 per barrel with the same volatility as the 

last five years for the next five years.

INTRODUCTION AND ASSUMPTIONS

Basic assumptions of the study.

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Aluminum content in North American (NA) light vehicles has achieved 37 years of 

uninterrupted growth. Ducker expects average 2012 vehicle content of 343 pounds:

 NA light vehicle industry to require 4.5 million closures, 7 million bumper beams, 13.9 million

steering knuckles, 11.9 million suspension arms, 1.7 million cross members and sub frames, 1.5

million drive shafts, 4.5 million differential carriers, 22 million powertrain mounts, 32 million cylinder

heads and blocks and 39 million aluminum wheels.

 Engine blocks, closures, bumpers, steering knuckles, differentials carriers, powertrain mounts and

IP Structures are expected to set all time content and aluminum consumption records in 2012.

 Sixty percent of the growth from 2009 will be for structural components made from primary

aluminum. In the prior decade, the majority of the aluminum content growth was from non-structural

components made from secondary aluminum.

 Body, bumper and closure content grew by 58% from 2009 to 2012. 30% of all the hoods and over

20% of the bumper beams will be aluminum in 2012. This is a great indicator for future mill product

aluminum growth. Trend line for aluminum hood penetration predicts a minimum 41% share for

aluminum hoods in 2017 and at least 53% by 2025 even without any further fuel economy

regulations. With the 2025 standards announced in early August 2011, the total predicted 2025

share for all aluminum closures including, hoods, doors, trunk lids and fenders is 42%.

 Imported cast wheels (China) will be used for 50% of the total 2012 light vehicle aluminum wheel

requirement. Aluminum will represent 70% of the road wheels required. Engines and transmissions

will contain 335 million pounds of non-NAFTA imported aluminum components.

 The only major component that will show an aluminum content decline in 2012 over 2009 is intake

manifolds. Manifolds continue to move to magnesium, reinforced nylon and other polymer

composites.

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Core findings of the 200 page proprietary study.

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 Latest models with above average aluminum content are: Chevy Malibu, Cadillac XTS/ATS/CTS, 

Dodge/Fiat C Sedan, Ford Explorer, Escape and MKZ, Honda CR-V and Accord, Nissan Altima, 

Toyota Avalon and Fiat 500.

 D Segment vehicles represent the largest share of each of the five part families considered for 

conversion to aluminum. The D Segment will contain 363 pounds of aluminum overall (10% of curb 

weight).

 E Segment vehicles are the most aluminum intensive with an average aluminum content of 421 

pounds (9.7% of curb weight).

 Large full frame (LFF) vehicles, mainly pickup trucks, contain below average quantity of structural 

aluminum components, but a slightly above average amount of aluminum overall at 354 pounds 

(6.8% of curb weight).

 Ducker believes the future growth of aluminum is highly dependent on the D, E and LFF segments. 

These segments, particularly LFF, are not good candidates for size reduction due to comfort and 

functionality requirements. These segments need aluminum bodies and doors more than the other 

segments.

 Beyond 2012, growth will depend on new applications expected to appear in the next five years. 

New applications are being driven by the 2016 CAFE standard of 35.5 MPG. 

On September 30, 2011 the EPA ruling for 2017 to 2025 fuel economy will be issued with a 

2025 passenger car target of 54.5 MPG and a light truck improvement target of 3.5% per year 

from 2016 to 2021, and the 2025 truck target “to be determined.” 

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

GM is the aluminum content leader of the major OEMs at 366 pounds. 

Honda is the leader for aluminum content as a percent of curb weight at 10.7%.

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 Standards for 2016 will push aluminum content from the 2012 level of 343 pounds per vehicle to 375 

pounds per vehicle by 2015/2016. The pending 2017 standard is likely to add at least 20 to 25 additional 

pounds. If there is no 2017 mandate the 20 additional pounds would be in jeopardy. Aluminum growth to 

near 400 pounds of aluminum per vehicle will be driven by growth in: closures, bumpers and bodies. 

Traditional aluminum components including engine blocks, wheels and steering knuckles will represent 

only 15% content growth through 2025. 

 During this decade, light vehicle aluminum content growth shifts from castings to mill products.

 U.S. desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce NAFTA dependence on oil imports is driving 

a multitude of proposals and options for improving fuel economy. A final set of recommend standards for 

2017 - 2025 will be issued by NHTSA/EPA on September 30, 2011.The NHTSA/EPA recommendations 

will be based on significant weight savings. 

 Ducker believes the NHTSA/EPA recommendations will be based on a maximum overall weight reduction 

of 10% to 12% on a sliding scale from small to large vehicles with a combined fuel economy target of 

between 51 MPG and 56 MPG. (54.5 MPG is in latest announcement, for cars with special treatment for 

trucks).

 Any 2025 target over 50 MPG is very likely to result in unprecedented aluminum content growth.

 An average weight savings of 400 pounds based on the EPA starting weight of 4,085 will require a 2025 

aluminum content at or near 550 pounds per vehicle. This equates to a fuel economy of 51 MPG with 44% 

HEV penetration. An overall flat rolled AHSS content of 375 pounds an a 2% reduction in average vehicle 

footprint will also be required.

 Aluminum content will increase to 671 pounds or 80% from the 373 pounds 2012 per vehicle for light 

trucks. Aluminum content will increase to 451 pounds or 50% from the 309 pounds in 2012 for cars. The 

aluminum product mix will go from 81% castings and 19% mill products to 39% mill products and 61% 

castings under the 550 pounds of aluminum per vehicle in 2025.

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

OEMs efforts to meet 35.5 mpg by 2016 coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the fuel economy 

standards beyond 2016 has caused a flurry of down weighting activity in the last two years.

11
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Ducker prefers segment analysis for material content studies, but the classic “car versus 

“truck” breakdown is also used for some comparisons.

 The 2012-2026 and 2017-2025 fuel economy standards are footprint based; however, the target 

MPG per square foot are different for “cars” versus “trucks”. The final targets of 35.5 MPG for 2016 

and 54.5 for cars and at least 46.5 for light trucks for 2025 covers the entire mix. However, every 

OEM has their own target for fuel economy based on their specific vehicle characteristics. The 

2017-2025 rule will give trucks a slower ramp up in MPG than expected for the period 2017-2021. 

Most likely 2025 segment breakdown is 55% cars and 45% trucks. The 550 pounds of aluminum 

per vehicle in 2025 to be split 451 pounds for cars and 671 pounds for trucks. 

 Trucks including SUVs use more aluminum per vehicle than cars because they can not be easily 

downsized in terms of footprint, and they have larger engines and transmissions with larger 

aluminum heads, blocks and transmission cases than most cars.

12

46%

55%

54% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2025

Car vs. Truck

Cars Trucks

309

373 343

451

671

550

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Cars Trucks Average

Pounds per Vehicle

Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle

2012 2025

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
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The use of aluminum in NA light vehicles will shift to a significantly larger share of mill products 

versus castings by 2025.

13

164, 48%

114, 33%

34, 10% 27, 

8%

4, 1%

2012

190, 34%

146, 27%

156, 28%

48, 

9%

10, 2% 2025 Permanent Mold 

& Sand Cast

High Presure 

Die Cast

Flat Rolled 

Extruded

Forged

550 Pounds

Car 451 Pounds

Truck 671 Pounds

343 Pounds

Car 309 Pounds

Truck 373 Pounds 

19% Mill Products

23% / 15.5% Car / Truck

39% Mill Products

29% / 47% Car / Truck

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Type of 

Vehicle

Increase in 

Aluminum 

Content

Car 50%

Truck 80%
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Aluminum is expected to double its share of the light vehicle material mix by 2025 vs. the 2008 

EPA baseline vehicle.

26%

13%

3%

16%

1%

7%

8%

1%

3%

22%

2008 Mild Flat Rolled Steel

FR BH & HS Steel 

(HSLA)

FR AHSS

All Other Steel

Flat Rolled Aluminum

Aluminum Profiles

Structural Alumium 

Castings

All Other Aluminum

Iron

Copper

Other Metals

Non Metallics

23%

13%

5% 16%

1%

1%

7%

8%

1%

3%

22%

2012

17%

14%

7%

16%

1% 2%

8%

8%

1%

3%

23%

2015 12%

7%

11%

16%

5%

2% 1%

8%

8% 2%

3%

25%

2025

Aluminum

16%

Aluminum

8%

Aluminum

9%

Aluminum

11%

3835 lbs. 3800 lbs.

3700 lbs. 3427 lbs.

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

14
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AGENDA

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

15
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125

14

23

24

49

60

69

70

88

89

112

115

126

130

371

516

588

636

785

790

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

All Other Compnents

Drive Shafts & Yokes

IP Structure

Cradles & Crossmembers

Engine Mounts

Other Steering

Differential Carriers

Bumpers

Transfer Cases

Control Arms & Links

Intake Manifolds

Steering Knuckles

Closures

Brake Parts

Other Engine

Heat Transfer

Cylinder Heads

Cylinder Blocks

Transmissions

Wheels

Millions of Pounds

2012 Millions of Pounds of Aluminum Content

Engine Blocks, Closures, Bumpers,

Steering Knuckles, Differentials Carriers,

Powertrain Mounts and IP Structures are

expected to set all time content and

aluminum consumption records in 2012 

16

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Aluminum content in 2012 will be concentrated in non-structural components; structural 

components will be at an all time high of 15-20% of the mix. 
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1

1

1.2

3.7

4.4

4.5

4.5

6.9

7.4

11.1

11.5

12.7

13.9

20.9

22

39

41.5

0 10 20 30 40 50

Instrument Panel Supports 

Subframes

Other Transmission Cases

Transfer Cases

Drive Shafts and Yokes

Differential Carriers

Closures

Bumper Beams

Intake Manifolds

Blocks

Suspension Arms

Auto Transmission Cases

Steering Knuckles

Heads

Powertrain Mounts

Wheels

Heat Exchangers

2012 Millions of Aluminum Parts

There will be over 200 million

major aluminum components 

in 2012 light vehicles

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

The number of aluminum parts that had to be engineered and will be manufactured for the 

2012 vehicles will be an all time record. 

17
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37%

20%

11%

19%

4%

2%

0%

5% 2%

2012 Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Heat Transfer

Wheels & Brakes

Steering

Suspension

Subframes & Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closures

All Other

38%

20%

11%

20%

3%

2%

0% 3%

3%

2009 Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Heat Transfer

Wheels & Brakes

Steering

Suspension

Subframes & Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closures

All Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Engine Transmission & 

Driveline

Heat Transfer Wheels & 

Brakes

Steering Suspension Subframes & 

Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & 

Closures

All Other

122.7

66.1

36.7

64.3

11.5 5.5 1.45 10.3 8.5

125.9

68.4

37

66

12.6 6.4 1.72

16.3 8.7

Pounds per Vehicle

Aluminum Content By System/Component

2009 2012

18

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Aluminum use in structural applications demonstrate 36% growth in 2012 versus 2009.

In 2012, 10 pounds of structural parts were added to every light vehicle since 2009.

Structural Components
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Product PM 

Castings HPDC R&B, Tube & 

Shapes HT Sheet Fin Stock/

NHT Sheet Forgings

Pounds per

Vehicle 164 114.6 26.8 9 25.2 3.7

Change +8.6 +3.4 +3.3 +3 +0.2 -2.2

 32% increase in extruded shapes and a 50% increase in heat treated sheet from 2009 to 2012 is a 

good sign for aluminum mill products content going forward.

 Forging decline reflects components originally classified as forged in 2009 that had to be 

reclassified as permanent mold castings for 2012.

 Slow trend to primary vs. secondary aluminum content continued over the last three years.

In North America, the ratio is close to 50/50. Globally, the ratio is 57% secondary and 43% 

primary. 

 The 2015 and 2025 North American light vehicle aluminum product mixes will look much different.

19

Summary of the aluminum product mix in 2012 versus 2009.

COMPONENT ANALYSIS
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1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

10%

16%

19%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Heat Transfer

Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Wheels & Brakes

Average Increase

Steering

Suspension

Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closure

2009 to 2012 Aluminum Content Growth

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

The total increase in aluminum 

content from 2009 to 2012 was 

an unspectacular 5%, but the 

growth for structural components 

verged on outstanding 

No other chart shows what the aluminum industry has accomplished in the last three years 

better than the chart below.

20

(over 50% from closures)
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C

3%

D

41%

E

33%

LFF

23%

2012 Closures by Segment

129 Million Pounds 

4.585 Million Parts

9.05 lbs/vehicle

5.9 lbs/vehicle

in 2009

Over 30% 

of all the hoods will 

be aluminum

in 2012

In the Near Future

21

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Aluminum closure pounds per vehicle will increase by 50% from 2009 to 2012.
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y = 0.0146x - 29.038

R2 = 0.9836

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Aluminum Hood Share of the LV Hood Market

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6%

10%

14.30%

18.60%

23.30%

30.50%

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Trend for aluminum hood penetration predicts a minimum 41% share in 2017 and 53% by 2025,

even without any further fuel economy mandates.

22
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A/B

0%

C

40%

D

45%

E

12%

LFF

3%

2012 Bumper Beams by Segment

70.8 Million Pounds

6.93 Million Parts

5.08 lbs/vehicle

2.98 lbs/vehicle 

in 2009

23

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Average aluminum bumper pounds per vehicle increased significantly over the last three years.
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A/B

2%

C

11%

D

51%

E

30%

LFF

1%

OFF

5%

2012 Knuckles by Segment

115.2 Million Pounds

A/B

9%

C

56%

D

16%

E

1%

LFF

18%

2012 Control Arms and Links 

by Segment

88.5 Million Pounds 

13. 9 Million Units

8.26 lbs/vehicle 

7.2 lbs/vehicle

in 2009

11.5 Million Units

6.35 lbs/vehicle

5.48 lbs/vehicle

in 2009

24

COMPONENT ANALYSIS

Over 55 million pounds of knuckles are accounted for by D segment vehicles, while C segment 

vehicles account for approximately 50 million pounds of control arms and links.
AGENDA

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

25
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2012 - 13,937,000 Vehicles will be Produced

46% “Car” and 54% for Light Truck

26

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

North American 2012 vehicles in the seven vehicle segments studied are shown below.

Source: Global Insights / PwC

Segment Examples Segment Examples Segment Examples Segment Examples

A 

0.3 %

3 Vehicles

Fiat 500

D

36%

64 Vehicles

Acura TL

E

15%

27 Vehicles

Cadillac CTS

Full Size 

Full Frame

19%

41 Vehicles

Toyota Tundra

B 

2.7%

9 Vehicles

Ford Fiesta Acura ZDX Chevy Impala Nissan Titan

C 

23%

40 Vehicles

Chrysler 200 BMW X6 Ford Taurus Ford F-150

Chevrolet 

Corvette Buick Lacrosse Jeep Grand 

Cherokee

Chevy 

Silverado

Ford Escape Chevrolet

Camaro Nissan Maxima Cadillac

Escalade

Honda CRV Chevrolet 

Malibu Chrysler 300 Dodge Ram

Ford Focus Ford Mustang For Explorer GMC Sierra

VW Jetta Honda Pilot / 

MDX Ford Flex Other Full 

Frame 3%

11 Vehicles

Toyota

Tacoma

Chevy Volt Nissan Altima Toyota Avalon Jeep Wrangler
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Ducker believes a “car” versus “truck” analysis is much less valuable for material content 

analysis than a vehicle segment analysis. The car/truck reference is prevalent in the literature 

and in the NHTSA/EPA rulings. Therefore, we provide the 2012 production data cut both ways 

for comparison.

27

2012 SEGMENT Car Truck Total

A&B-Segment Total 485,610 50,950* 536,560 

C-Segment Total 2,402,340 719,271 3,121,611 

D-Segment Total 2,944,868 2,082,120 5,026,988 

E-Segment Total 607,728 1,475,776 2,083,504 

Compact Full-Frame Total 418,498 418,498 

Full-Size Full-Frame Total 2,645,673 2,645,673 

Mini Full-Frame Total 56,558 56,558 

Grand Total 6,440,546 7,448,846 13,937,000 

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

2012 Segment Car Truck Total

A&B 90.5% 9.5% 100.0%

C 77.0% 23.0% 100.0%

D 58.6% 41.4% 100.0%

E 29.2% 70.8% 100.0%

Full Size FF 100.0% 100.0%

Other FF 100.0% 100.0%

Grand Total 46.4% 53.6% 100.0%

2012 SEGMENT Car Truck Average

A&B-Segment 230 224 229 

C-Segment 265 310 275 

D-Segment 332 407 363 

E-Segment 417 423 421 

Compact Full-Frame 330 330 

Full-Size Full-Frame 354 354 

Mini Full-Frame 311 311 

Grand Total 309 373 343 

2012 Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle

Segmented by Segment and by Car versus Truck

The 2012-2016 and 2017-2025 fuel economy 

regulations/rules are footprint based; however 

the target MPGs per square foot are different for 

“cars” versus “trucks”. The final targets of 35.5 

MPG for 2016 and 54.5 for cars and at least 46.5

for light trucks in 2025. The 2017-2025 rule will 

allow trucks to have a slower improvement rate 

than cars for the period 2017-2021. Based on a 

split of 55% cars and 45% trucks in 2025. Ducker 

expects the 550 pounds of aluminum per vehicle 

to be split 451 pounds for cars and 671 pounds 

for trucks. 

*Ford CUV, Nissan Note, GMC Granite, Chevy BCUV

2012 Production Data
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

229

275

363

421

329

354 343

Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle

2012 Aluminum Pounds per Segment

28

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

E Segment vehicles lead the way with total aluminum pounds per segment; as a share of curb 

weight, the D segment vehicles average over 10% of curb weight in aluminum.
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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Parts A/B C D E LFF OFF Millions of 

Pounds

1. Closures - 3% 41% 33% 23% - 126

2. Bumpers - 40% 45% 12% 3% - 70

3. Knuckles 2% 11% 51% 30% 5% 1% 115

4. Arms - 9% 56% 16% 18% 1% 89

5. Other Structures - 23% 62% 15% - - 50

Sum of 1,2,3,4,5 3.6 20.4 44.4 50.7 20.1 5.2 32.7

Total of All 

Aluminum Pounds / 

Vehicle

229 275 363 421 354 329 343

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

 D Segment vehicles represent the largest share of each of the five part families of most interest to the 

client. The D Segment will contain 363 pounds of aluminum overall which will be 10% of curb weight. 

 E Segment vehicles; however, are the most aluminum intensive segment overall for the key 

components with an average weight per vehicle of over 50 pounds of these critical parts. With 421 

pounds of aluminum overall which will be 9.7% of curb weight.

 Large full frame vehicles, mainly pickup trucks, contain a below average quantity of the critical 

aluminum components, but a slightly above average amount of aluminum overall at 354 pounds

This equates to a below average of 6.8% of curb weight.

 Ducker believes the future growth of aluminum is highly dependent on the D, E and LFF segments. 

These segments, particularly the LFF segment, are not good candidates for vehicle size reduction due 

to comfort, safety and functionality requirements. These segments need aluminum bodies and doors 

more than the other segments. 

29

Summary of vehicle segment analysis.
ducker.com

Newest vehicles have an average aluminum content of 10.4% rather than the 2012 average for 

all vehicles of 9%. 

VEHICLE SOP EOP % Aluminum

Total Aluminum 

Pounds

Fiat 500(312) Dec-2010 Jun-2015 10.50% 254

Chrysler 300(LX) Dec-2010 Dec-2016 10.60% 420

Ford Explorer(U502) Nov-2010 Dec-2016 9.90% 466

Hyundai Elantra(UD) Nov-2010 Dec-2015 9.60% 256

Mercedes-Benz ML-Class(W166) Jul-2011 Jun-2018 11.6% 581

Ford Escape(C520) Oct-2011 Mar-2017 10.9% 355

Ford Focus(C346) Jan-2011 Dec-2016 9.8% 260

Saab 9-4X(GMT168) Apr-2011 Dec-2015 11.6% 406

Honda Civic(2HC) Jan-2011 Jun-2016 10.4% 270

Honda CR-V(2WS) Aug-2011 Jun-2016 10.9% 290

Volkswagen D-Sedan (NMS)(VW411) Apr-2011 Apr-2017 9.1% 347

Chrysler/Fiat C-Sedan Jan-2012 Dec-2016 11.3% 351

Dodge Viper(ZD) Nov-2012 Oct-2017 10.7% 369

Mercedes-Benz GL-Class(X166) Jul-2012 Jun-2019 9.6% 525

Ford Fusion(CD391) Jun-2012 May-2017 10.2% 336

Lincoln MKZ(CD533) Jun-2012 May-2017 11.3% 397

Cadillac ATS(A1SL) July 2012 Jun-2017 10.3% 361

Chevrolet Malibu(GMX351) Feb-2012 Jul-2017 11.2% 385

Cadillac XTS(P1LL) Mar-2012 Feb-2018 10.7% 408

Honda Accord(2GA) Aug-2012 Jul-2017 10.7% 347

Nissan Altima(L42L) Dec-2012 Nov-2017 11.1% 355

Toyota Avalon(170A) Nov-2012 Oct-2017 10.6% 380

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS 

30

Vehicles of Note for Aluminum
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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OEM A B C D E F G H Average

CW Lbs. 4161 4089 3256 4087 3481 3256 3104 3001 3800

Lbs./Vehicle 366 361 350 345 312 303 292 261 343

% of CW 8.8 8.8 10.7 8.4 10 9.3 9.4 8.7 9.0

6 year +38 +61 +20 +27 -4 -7 +30 -6 +27

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

 GM is the North American aluminum 

content leader of the major OEMs at 366 

pounds.

 Honda is the leader for aluminum content 

as a percent of curb weight at 10.7%.

 The latest models with above average 

aluminum content are: Chevy Malibu, 

Cadillac XTS/ATS/CTS, Dodge /Fiat C 

Sedan, Ford Explorer, Escape and MKZ, 

Honda CR-V and Accord, Nissan Altima, 

Toyota Avalon and Fiat 500.

Summary of vehicle and OEM analysis for 2012 excluding low volume OEMs.

31

261

343

391

0

100

200

300

400

500

Pounds per Vehicle

Unibody and Full Frame Average

Aluminum Content 

for the Major OEMs

OEM Data Points

Spread from high to low from the average of 343 

pounds is + 48 and – 82 including full frame trucks. 
32

VEHICLE SEGMENT ANALYSIS

B, C and D segment vehicles will increase their share of total production at the expense of full frame and E 

segment vehicles; with as little as 2% sales growth for the E Segment and large full frame vehicles a 

constant volume of 4.6 million units per year over the entire period from 2012 to 2025.

Source: Ducker, IHS / CSM

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Percent of Total Production

2008 2012 2017 2025

Segment 2008 % 2012 % 2017 % 2025 %

B-Segment 2.2 4.1 8.7 9

Other Full-Frame 5.4 3.4 3.7 3.3

C-Segment 22 23.2 23.6 26.2

D-Segment 35 36 36 37

E-Segment 14.4 14.7 11.7 10

Full-Size FullFrame 21 18.6 16.3 14.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2012 2017 2025

B-Segment Other Full-Frame C-Segment

D-Segment E-Segment Full-Size Full-Frame

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2025

Millions of 

Units Forecast of E and LFF Production 

with 2% CAGR for Vehicle Sales 

from 2017 to 2025 
AGENDA

2012 AND BEYOND

33
87

114

130 137 141 150

165

183

202

224

242

258

275

295

316 325 330

343

377

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Pounds

Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle

-History and ForecastForecast

34

2012 AND BEYOND

After a short period of slow growth, NA light vehicle aluminum content will take a large step 

toward the long term trend line in 2012, reaching 400 pounds per vehicle by 2015/2016.
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

12

10

6

3 2 3

5

8

10 11 1 12

4

8

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pounds per Vehicle

North American Light Vehicle Aluminum 

Content Increases

Pounds per Vehicle New Applications

35

2012 AND BEYOND

To achieve 400 pounds by 2015/2016 a growth scenario with significant new applications is 

required. Ducker believes there are positive signs that these applications will be in place by 

2015/2016.

(Primarily body, bumper 

and closure components)
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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24

28 30

24

30

34

11

16

33

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pounds

Looking at Aluminum Growth per Year in Three Year Blocks is 

More Accurate than single year analysis 

Period Upside

Period Increase

New Applications

36

2012 AND BEYOND

Aluminum growth analyzed at a three year interval is more meaningful than annual analysis.

Source: Ducker
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

MPG

HEV %

HEV Share versus MPG with 10% 

Light Weighting and ICE Optimization 

51 MPG

44%

5% CAGR

4% CAGR

3% CAGR

37

The Ducker long term forecast is based on: 10% average weight savings, 44% HEV, very little 

footprint reduction by segment and a most likely 51 MPG fuel economy target for 2025. 

Line slope is based on limited data, and is somewhat conceptual

Note: Some PHEV and EV use will 

allow the overall alternative powertrain 

share to be somewhat lower

54.5 

MPG

28%

48.6

MPG

80%

Low 

Based on

3.5% or 40.6 for 

trucks

High

Based on

54.5 average

for both

Most 

Likely

Based on 54.5 for

cars and 46.5 for trucks 

2012 AND BEYOND
5% 15%

A 10% reduction from the 2008 average vehicle 

weight would require target reductions very close to 

the weight reductions by segment shown above 

We believe the revisions to the September 2010 Proposal of Intent will vary 

weight reduction by vehicle segment. Ducker believes the average will be 10% 

due to safety concerns about reducing weight in the A, B & C segments.

38

2012 AND BEYOND

Ducker believes the original weight reduction option assumptions outlined by NHTSA/EPA will 

be changed dramatically in the final ruling. A 25% reduction is no longer considered 

achievable. OEMs, however, could choose to act differently as long as they do not sacrifice 

safety.

-130 -150 -185

-300

-400 -400

-500

-800

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

A B C D Average Medium 

FF

E Large FF

Pounds per Vehicle

Needed Weight Reduction by Vehicle Segment

Adjusted for Mix 
229

275

363

421

329 354 343

250

315

410

470

350

535

400

294

364

513

620 597

975

550

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

A/B-Segment C-Segment D-Segment E-Segment Other FullFrameFull-Size FullFrameAverage

Pounds per Vehicle

Base Case Aluminum Content by Segment

- Forecast -

2012

2015/2016

2025

Sheet 

Increase

39

2012 AND BEYOND

Within the anticipated NHTSA weight reduction targets by vehicle segment, aluminum content 

shown below would be needed to satisfy the overall reduction estimate of 10%. The additional 

amount of aluminum will range from 65 pounds per vehicle for A/B segment vehicles to 621 

pounds per vehicle for Large Full Frame (LFF) pickups and large SUVs. 

+207

+621

+199 +268

+150

+89

+65

+22

+23

+83

+164

+122

+96

+422

Total

Increase
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

80, 20%

180, 44%

78, 19%

70, 17%

Sources of Weight Savings 

for 4%

CAGR for MPG

Add 250 lbs. of AHSS 

Add 225 lbs. of 

Aluminum 

Weight Compounding 

Effect

Reduce Footprint One 

Square Foot

408 Pounds Saved

or 10% over 2008

(the NHTSA/EPA Base Year

Inertia Weight) and 10.6% 

over the 2008 Curb Weight 

Savings of over 400 pounds of curb weight by 2025 could come from the following sources:

40

2012 AND BEYOND

A mixed material and footprint reduction strategy can save over 400 pounds or 10% over the 

2008 EPA vehicle weight. This combined with 44% HEV or the equivalent in PHEV/EV share will 

result in 51 MPG by 2025. 
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

Material changes along with a 2% footprint reduction will reduce average vehicle weight by

10% of 2008 average vehicle inertia weight and 10.6% from the 2008 average curb weight. When

combined with HEV penetration of 44% and appropriate engine resizing, a 2025 fuel economy

of 51 MPG is achievable with no decline in safety, performance, functionality or comfort. Cost

of these changes with investment should be less than $1,000 per vehicle before considering

cost savings resulting form secondary weight savings from other downsized components.

Average Light Vehicle Material Content in Net Pounds per Vehicle

41

2012 AND BEYOND

Material Category 2008 2010 2012 2015 2025

Mild Flat Rolled Steel 999 976 861 650 408

FR BH & HS Steel (HSLA) 489 496 513 516 240

Flat Rolled AHSS 124 156 194 251 375

All Other Steel (Long Products) 602 606 596 580 542

Flat Rolled Aluminum 29 31 34 67 156

Aluminum Extrusions 10 12 14 19 30

Structural Aluminum Castings 20 20 22 25 60

All Other Aluminum 266 267 273 289 304

Iron 307 305 295 290 270

Copper 52 52 52 52 52

Other Metals 101 103 104 105 115

Polymers 340 345 350 366 400

Other Non Metallics 496 493 492 490 475
ducker.com

To achieve a 10% weight savings, the light vehicle material mix will need to shift to lower density 

materials. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2010 2012 2015 2025

Percent of Curb Weight

Non Metallics

Other Metals

Copper

Iron

All Other Aluminum

Structural Alumium Castings

Aluminum Profiles

Flat Rolled Aluminum

All Other Steel

FR AHSS

FR BH & HS Steel (HSLA)

Mild Flat Rolled Steel

16%

46%

2008 38%

34%

2008

8%

2008 

58%

Curb Weight Pounds 3835 3862 3800 3700 3427 - 408

2025

42

2012 AND BEYOND
ducker.com

Material mix shift is necessary to achieve a 10% weight reduction for light vehicles and 51 

MPG.

999 976 861

650

408

489 496

513

516

240

124 156

194

251

375

602 606 596

580

542

29 31 34

67

156

30

60

266 267 273

289

304

307 305 295

290

270

52

101 103 104

105

115

340 345 350

366

400

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2008 2010 2012 2015 2025

Net Pounds per Light Vehicle

The Mix of Finished Materials for Light Vehicles

(includes weight compounding and 2% size reduction)

Polymers

Other Metals

Copper

Iron

All Other Aluminum

Structural Alumium Castings

Aluminum Profiles

Flat Rolled Aluminum

All Other Steel

FR AHSS

FR BH & HS Steel (HSLA)

Mild Flat Rolled Steel

3,427 lbs.

3,835 lbs.

43

2012 AND BEYOND
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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AHSS will replace HSLA steel to save weight, but the combined share of all the varieties of 

high strength steel has a finite penetration level as a percent of curb weight. Ducker believes 

that the combined limit is between 20% and 25%*. Substitution of aluminum for some portion 

of the Bake Hard and HSLA segments has already begun, with 30% of the hoods being 

aluminum in 2012. By 2016, the new steels will peak at 21%. By 2025, both aluminum and the 

flat rolled bake hard, HSLA and AHSS combination will be about 16% of curb weight.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Percent of Curb Weight

Flat Rolled BH, HSLA and AHSS 

versus Aluminum 

as a percent of Curb Weight

New Steel's Share of Curb

Aluminum Share's of Curb

*The material and alloy mix for wheels was held constant at 2012 levels for the analysis

44

2012 AND BEYOND

50% 51% 54%

42% 38% 30%

8% 11% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2015 2025

Material Mix in Total is Shifting 

to Lower Density Materials as 

a Percent of Curb Weight

All other Materials Flat Rolled Steel

Aluminum

100% Low Density

Aluminum

75% Low Density

100% High Density

Flat Rolled Steel

Zinc, magnesium,

titanium, platinum, 

steel long products, 

copper, iron, lead, 

polymers, glass, 

rubber, textiles, wood, 

coatings and fluids 

such as oil 

and gasoline
ducker.com

As aluminum and AHSS replace other steels to save weight, the mix of materials in light 

vehicles will show dramatic change.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Flat Rolled Mild, BH & HSS Share

Flat Rolled AHSS Share

Aluminum Share

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Share of Curb Weight

Flat Rolled Mild, BH & HSS Share

Aluminum Share

Flat Rolled AHSS Share

Aluminum

AHSS

Other Flat Rolled Steel

Steel is replacing itself 

with the help of aluminum

in order to save weight.

This mix with weight compounding and a

2% size reduction will cut curb weight 10%.

This is how to save 

weight. Replace most of the 

flat rolled mild steel. 

45

2012 AND BEYOND
ducker.com

Over an 18 year period, light vehicle curb weight will be reduced by over 400 pounds while 

improving safety, performance and comfort; a testimony to the engineering ability of the 

American auto makers. A 51-55 MPG average by 2025 is within grasp at a reasonable cost to 

the consumers. 

0 500 1000 1500 2000

All Other Materials

Polymers

Other Metals

Iron

Aluminum

All Other Steel

Flat Rolled AHSS

Flat Rolled Mild, BH and HSS

Pounds per Vehicle

2008

2010

2012

2015

2025

- 840

+ 251

- 60

+ 225

- 37

+ 14

+ 60

- 21

Finished Pounds per North American Light Vehicle

46

2012 AND BEYOND
ducker.com

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2017 2025

Finished Pounds

Body, Bumper and Closure Content 

Aluminum

AHSS

HSLA/BH

Mild Steel

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2017 2025

Body, Bumper and Closure Material Mix

272 lbs.

saved*

400 pounds of

AHSS and Aluminum

will replace 670 

pounds of HSLA/BH 

And mild steel in the body, 

bumpers and closures 

average light vehicle

by 2025. 

Aluminum and AHSS content 

for these components

will go from 14% of the mix

to 61% of the mix. This 

shift will save nearly 25%

of the weight for these 

components in the average 

light vehicle.

*Includes 2% size reduction and appropriate weight compounding

20%

41%

17%

22%

1177

1041

905

Mild Steel

AHSS

HSLA/BH

Aluminum

47

The NA light vehicle material mix for body, bumper and closure components will change 

dramatically over the 2010 thru 2025 timeframe.

2012 AND BEYOND
ducker.com

Adding 400 pounds of aluminum and AHSS to the body, bumpers and closures of the average 

light vehicle along with a 2% footprint reduction and minor weight compounding in the body 

can save 272 pounds by 2025. This will reduce other steel content in the body, bumpers and 

closures by 650 to 700 pounds, and make a major contribution to the goal of an economical 400 

pound (10%) average weight reduction of 5-15% depending on current vehicle size and 

segment.

Add 172

Add 228

-672

-272

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Aluminum AHSS HSLA/BH/Mild Net Savings

Finished Pounds 

The savings will 

vary a great deal by 

vehicle segment. 

D Segment, E 

Segment and Large 

Full Frame vehicles 

will show the most 

dramatic change in 

material mix.

Changes by 2025 

in the body, bumper 

and closure weight

for the average 

NA light vehicle.

The total weight savings is 

400 pounds. This is just the 

weight savings in the body, 

bumpers and closures.

48

2012 AND BEYOND
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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2.65 5.62 6.93 8.73 10.3 16.3

65

110

150

180

0

50

100

150

200

250

1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025

Pounds per Vehicle

Body, Bumper and Closures

9

16 19

27 27 30

35

41

48

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025

Other Structural Parts

North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

212 229 249

280 290 297 302 305 310 315

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025

All Other Aluminum

224 251 275 316 327 343

394

456

508

550

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025

Total

3.5% CAGR

49

2012 AND BEYOND

Aluminum body and structural components will lead growth in content. 

Source: Ducker
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Pounds

North American 51 MPG Case Results for Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

1977

2025

550 lbs.

Actual Values

50 Year 

Exponential Trend Line

50

2012 AND BEYOND

Aluminum content increase from 8% to 16% of curb weight is consistent with long term trend. 

Source: Ducker

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00% Aluminum Share

Of Curb Weight

16%

8%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Long Term Aluminum Content 

Trend Line

300 lbs.

600 lbs.

3.5% CAGR
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

More than the new CAFE rules are driving aluminum growth. History favors aluminum.

51

165

212

242 265

295 322 330 343

400

441

495

550

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle

History and Forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Pounds per Vehicle

Trend Line

Depends on 

2018 Rule Review

Actual Values 

Thru 2012

2012 AND BEYOND

373 394 420 450 459 485 498 513 528 

585 607 629 650 671 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle Car 

versus Truck

Car Truck

 Historical trend predicts continued growth for 

aluminum content. This is not a “hockey stick” 

forecast. It is very realistic.

 OEMS are convinced improving fuel economy 

creates a competitive advantage. They don’t 

want expensive alternative powertrains to be 

forced on consumers, but they see the 

commercial and political value of saving 

weight. Aluminum is the most cost effective 

and safe way to achieve significant weight 

reduction. 
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

The mix is slowly shifting to more cars, but aluminum use today and in the future will be 36% 

greater in light trucks. The average aluminum content for all the vehicles expected to be 

assembled in NA over the 2012-2025 time period is forecast to be 448 pounds per vehicle.

52

Billions of 

Pounds

Total Aluminum Content Pounds

Car vs. Truck 

Car Truck

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Car versus Truck Share of Total 

Production 

Car Truck

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Light Trucks

Passenger Cars

Light Trucks

Passenger Cars

2012 AND BEYOND

42.8 Billion Pounds

58.5 Billion Pounds

127 Million Units

124 Million Units
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

ducker.com

 The primary objective of this study was to determine a very accurate estimate of the aluminum content 

in the light vehicles to be assembled in North America in 2012. Ducker’s estimate is 343 pounds per 

vehicle in 2012 versus 327 pounds in 2009. The study also attempted to determine the most likely 

material mix for future North American light vehicles through 2025. All the factors affecting the future 

mix were taken into account, including technology, cost, material availability and most importantly the 

current and recently announced fuel economy regulations. A scenario for 2025 of 10% weight 

savings, 44% HEV penetration and a 2% average footprint reduction resulted in the achievement of a 

fuel economy of 54.5 MPG for cars and at least 46.5 MPG for light trucks. The primary sources of the 

weight savings came from the additions of aluminum and advanced high strength steels for mild, bake 

hard and HSLA steels primarily in the body and closures of the average vehicle.

 Aluminum content is expected to grow at 3.5% CAGR over the next fifteen years in the continued 

quest for cost effective vehicle weight savings. Current aluminum growth is being driven by new 

applications for body, bumpers and closures. Thirty percent of all the hoods on the 2012 vehicles will 

be aluminum; saving 100 million pounds of vehicle weight. Future growth will be driven primarily by 

the continued conversion of steel to aluminum in these same applications. Advanced high strength 

steels (AHSS) are also replacing HSLA and mild steels in these applications. AHSS is initially a cost 

effective way to save weight. The problem is these steels don’t save enough weight. We added 250 

pounds of AHSS to the base year 125 pounds in order to save a maximum of 80 pounds for the most 

strength driven components in the vehicle body. AHSS simply saves weight through gauge reduction. 

There is a design limit on how thin you can go on a component such as a hood and still maintain 

functionality. AHSS has the same density as mild steel. Aluminum on the other hand saves weight 

because it has a density of only one third that of AHSS. Even when you increase the thickness of the 

aluminum to meet the stiffness of steel, the aluminum parts only weigh half as much as the steel parts 

they replace. We added 225 pounds of aluminum to the average vehicle and saved 180 pounds with 

no change in part performance.

Aluminum will be a significant contributor to the achievement of at least a 10% reduction in 

light vehicle weight by 2025.

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2012 AND BEYOND
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL 

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The forecast of a 2025 light vehicle aluminum content of 550 pounds per vehicle is only slightly 

above the long term trend line, and quite achievable at a very reasonable direct cost of less than 

$500 per vehicle to the OEMs and their tier one suppliers.

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 Aluminum will need to grow in content from 325 pounds in the NHTSA/EPA base year of 2008

to 550 pounds in 2025 in order to save 180 to 200 pounds of direct curb weight and 78

pounds of secondary curb weight. The average cost of direct weight savings was determined

to be approximately $2.00 per pound of weight saved. The 78 pounds of secondary weight

savings would help offset this penalty, but we did not place a value on the secondary weight

savings in this exercise. This increased use of aluminum is absolutely necessary for a cost

effective weight reduction in curb weight of over 400 pounds by 2025.The weight savings from

AHSS diminishes rapidly after you convert the safety cage and a few other parts. A few major

OEMs have already reached this point in most of their vehicles. Increasing aluminum intensity

is the next step for these OEMs.

 Although adding 225 pounds of aluminum in less than 20 years is a very dramatic increase,

North American OEMs have already added or are programed to add 250 pounds in the period

1990 to 2015. The 3.5% CAGR needed to attain 550 pounds by 2025 is a conservative

forecast in our opinion.

2012 AND BEYOND
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This concludes our report. Thank you.

This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute

judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any

interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client.

Reproduction or external distribution of the contents of this report without the

explicit consent of DuckerWorldwide LLC is strictly prohibited.

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marketplace. Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and

strategic consulting create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.

For more information regarding our strategic services,expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help

you,please contact one of our team membersat 248-644-0086 or visit our website at www.ducker.com

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