Actual (census years) and Estimates (other years)

Year Estimate_1 Estimate_2 Estimate_3 Time

Seeded 

Pasture

1986 8.8 8.8 8.8 Year (T) (milion acres)

1987 9.0 9.1 9.1 1986 1 8.8

1988 9.3 9.4 9.3 1991 2 10.2

1989 9.5 9.7 9.6 1996 3 10.7

1990 9.8 9.9 9.9 2001 4 11.9

1991 10.2 10.2 10.2 2006 5 14.1

1992 10.5 10.3 10.4

1993 10.7 10.4 10.6

1994 11.0 10.5 10.8

1995 11.2 10.6 10.9 1986 1 8.7

1996 10.7 10.7 10.7 1991 2 9.9

1997 11.0 11.0 11.0 1996 3 11.1

1998 11.2 11.2 11.2 2001 4 12.4

1999 11.5 11.4 11.5 2006 5 13.6

2000 11.7 11.6 11.7

2001 11.9 11.9 11.9

2002 12.1 12.2 12.2

2003 12.4 12.6 12.5

2004 12.6 13.0 12.8 SUMMARY OUTPUT

2005 12.8 13.3 13.1

2006 14.1 14.1 14.1 Regression Statistics

2007 14.3 14.4 14.4 Multiple R 0.975975577

2008 14.6 14.8 14.7 R Square 0.952528326

2009 14.8 15.2 15.0 Adjusted R Square 0.936704435

2010 15.0 15.5 15.3 Standard Error 0.496896086

Seeded pasture areas in census publications

Regression estimates for census years

2010 15.0 15.5 15.3 Standard Error 0.496896086

Observations 5

ANOVA

df SS

Regression 1 14.86263327

Residual 3 0.740717161

Total 4 15.60335043

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 7.486318 0.521149012

T 1.219124 0.157132339

Notes:

1. Tame or seeded pasture data from Censuses of Agriculture from 1986 to 2006 have been used to estimate a regression line

2. In Column C (Estimate_1), annual estimates between the census years are derived by adding the immediate past census da

3. In Column D (Estimate_2), annual estimates are derived through simple and weighted trending for the years from 1997 to 20

 The trend from 2002 onward is calculated by applying more weight (66.7%) to the current period (2001-2006) than the immed

4. Annual estimates in Column E (Esimate_3) are simple averages of estimates in Column C and Column D. Estimate_3 has b

5. Estimates for the census years (1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006) are published numbers.
Chart 1

Chart 2

y = 1.2191x + 7.4863

6

8

10

12

14

16

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Seeded Pasture Linear (Seeded Pasture)

6

8

10

12

14

16

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

MS F Significance F

14.86263327 60.19558096 0.004453916

0.24690572

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

14.36502389 0.000731184 5.827787698 9.144848302 5.827787698 9.144848302

7.758581117 0.004453916 0.719058298 1.719189702 0.719058298 1.719189702

 estimate a regression line. 

mmediate past census data to the coefficient (T) distributed equally to the years between two census cycles (i.e., coefficient divided by 5).

 the years from 1997 to 2010 except the census years. 

001-2006) than the immediate past period (1996-2001) (33.3% weight). 

lumn D. Estimate_3 has been used in calculations.

Estimate_1 Estimate_2 Estimate_3
ycles (i.e., coefficient divided by 5).
Geography Area (acres) Type of crop 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Canada Cultivated area Christmas tree 132,848 126,197 119,546 112,895 106,244 99,593

Canada Cultivated area Sod and nursery 106,585 107,454 99,750 90,230 93,700 92,185

Total (million of acres) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Notes:

1. Calculated from Census of Agriculture data (in black), 1996-2006, and annual sod and nusery survey data (in light blue), 199

2. Numbers for the years between the censuses (in blue) have been derived assuming a linear growth between the census yea
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

92,941 89,490 86,039 82,588 79,137 75,688 72,239 68,790 65,341 61,892

111,798 111,920 116,905 113,295 108,738 110,871 108,441 106,010 106,450 108,765

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

ey data (in light blue), 1997-2010.

h between the census years.
Field crops 

and 

Specialty 

crops

Hay and 

Forage

Summer 

fallow

Fruits and 

Vegetables

Nursery, Sod 

and 

Christmas 

tree

Seeded 

pasture

Total 

Cropland 

and Pasture 

(Annual 

Surveys)

1995 69.5 16.7 16.8 0.5 0.2 10.9 114.6

1996 69.5 16.3 15.3 0.5 0.2 10.7 112.6

1997 70.9 16.2 14.0 0.5 0.2 11.0 112.8

1998 71.6 16.8 13.4 0.5 0.2 11.2 113.7

1999 69.9 17.6 14.9 0.5 0.2 11.5 114.6

2000 72.7 18.5 11.5 0.5 0.2 11.7 115.2

2001 70.1 19.5 11.6 0.5 0.2 11.9 113.8

2002 69.9 19.8 10.2 0.5 0.2 12.2 112.8

2003 70.8 20.0 8.6 0.5 0.2 12.5 112.7

2004 69.9 20.4 8.6 0.5 0.2 12.8 112.4

2005 67.9 20.7 9.3 0.5 0.2 13.1 111.8

2006 67.6 21.0 8.6 0.5 0.2 14.1 112.0

2007 70.0 21.0 7.3 0.6 0.2 14.4 113.4

2008 71.0 20.9 6.0 0.5 0.2 14.7 113.4

2009 70.5 21.0 6.2 0.6 0.2 15.0 113.4

2010 64.3 20.8 11.6 0.5 0.2 15.3 112.7

Mean 69.8 19.2 10.9 0.5 0.2 12.7 113.2

Standard 

deviation 1.9 1.9 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.0

Percent of 

the mean 61.6 17.0 9.6 0.5 0.2 11.2 100.0

Years

Million of Acres
Total 

Cropland 

and Pasture 

(Census + 

undercoverage)

--

115.1

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115.9

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113.0

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