NUREG/CR-1930

BNL-NUREG-51339

Index of Risk Exposure and

Risk Acceptance Criteria

Prepared by B. Miller, R. E. Hall

Brookhaven National Laboratory

Prepared for

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory

Commission
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NUREG/CR-1930

BNL-NUREG-51339

RG

Index of Risk Exposure and

Risk Acceptance Criteria

Manuscript Completed: January 1981

Date Published: February 1981

Prepared by

B. Miller, R. E. Hall

Risk Assessment and Engineering Analysis Group

Department of Nuclear Energy

Brookhaven National Laboratory

Upton, NY 11973

Prepared for

Division of Systems and Reliability Research

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Washington, D.C. 20555

NRC FIN A3222

ABSTRACT

This report contains abstracts of articles which address various aspects

of quantitative risk analysis, covering the subjects of numerical risk criteria, methodology and data. The articles were published primarily from 1976

to date in technical journals, reports, papers, etc-. The articles selected

for this report were judged to have relevance to nuclear power plant risk

evaluations and to the possible establishment of the acceptability (or unacceptability) of calculated nuclear power plant risks. A matrix of the various

risk criteria proposed is presented.

iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Abstract ................................................................... iii

Introduction ............................................................... 1

Table 1 - Proposed Risk Criteria ........................................... 3

Index by Title ............................................................. 9

Index by Author(s) ......................................................... 17

Abstracts .................................................................. 29

Acknowledgments .................. .......................................... 98

V

INTRODUCTION

This document is a compilation of abstracts of various articles, reviews, symposiums, reports, etc., which cover numerical risk analysis with

specific consideration given to those involved in formulating and utilizing

-numerical risk criteria. Emphasis has been placed on articles from-the nuclear industry, however articles from non-nuclear related fields which were

deemed relevant to nuclear risk evaluations and numerical risk criteria are

included.

Articles are classified by three categories: criteria, methodology and

data. Articles meeting the qualifications of each category are so indicated

in the "Title" table of contents, as well as in the abstract format. The

criteria for each classification are as follows:

Criteria: Articles that discuss the need for, the pros and cons of, the

development of, and/or the philosophy of criteria are indicated with a "C" or "yes".

Methodology: Articles that discuss the pros and cons of various methodologies, methodology requirements for probabilistic evaluations, or

actually present a methodology that may assist in the development of a

risk criteria are indicated with an "M" or "yes".

Data: Articles that discuss the problem with lack of data for risk ana-y-sis, or present numerical values that may assist in the development

of a criteria are indicated with a "D" or "yes".

Examples on how this classification system is applied are as follows:

a Articles that present a numerical criteria would be indicated with a "C" and "D"

e Articles that discuss the methodology requirements for probabilistic

evaluations, including input data required would be indicated with an "M" and "D"

e Articles that discuss a criteria along with various methodologies,

but do not present numerical data will be indicated with a "C" and

"IM"I

* Articles that present historical information on risk statistics would

be indicated with a "D"

e Articles that present risk comparisons would be indicated with a "D"

The format by which the abstracts are written is as follows:

File #: Brookhaven National Laboratory file number.

Title: Title of article.

Author(s): Name of author(s) or principal investigator.

1
Affiliation: Corporation or university with which author is affiliated.

Paper, Periodical, Report, Document, etc.: Presented or published (e.g.

symposium paper presented, NUREG, report number, periodical and volume.)

Date: Date associated with previous category.

Contents: Article data (pages, figures, tables, appendices, etc.) and the

classification.

Abstract: Abstract of article as presented by author and possibly modified

slightly to meet the requirement of this document, or abstract written by this

author.

In presenting the abstracts, we have attempted to summarize the results,

findings, and/or conclusions along with stating any uncertainties or confidence levels as presented in the articles without injecting the viewpoints of

the authors of this report.

Due to the frequent use of the word "risk" throughout the abstracts, it

was deemed necessary to clarify the specific meaning of the word. Thus following the initial use of the word "risk" within an abstract, it will be

followed by a symbol that corresponds to one of the following definitions:

riske - risk expressed as expected consequence

riskPc - risk expressed as probability vs. consequence curve

riskf - risk expressed as probability of fatality

riskg - risk used in the general context to mean some measure of

consequence or harm

While the report presents a matrix of the various proposed risk criteria, see Table 1, it is intended to provide a bibliography of articles which

cover numerical risk analysis for those involved in formulating and utilizing

numerical risk criteria.

2
Table 1

Proposed Risk Criteria

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

AIF Atomic Industrial 5-80

Forum

Average number of public fatalities

per year attributable to the operation

of nuclear power (US only) exclusive

of fuel cycle should be lower than .1

per year per 1000 MW(e).

Frequency of serious core damagý per

reactor shall be lower than 10-4 per

reactor year.

F

M

Atchison, R. CanadianAtomic

Energy Control

Board

7-79 Each special safety system shall be

readily tested, as a system, and shall

be tested to demonstrate that any special safety system is no higher than 10-3.

Radioactive effluent due to normal

operation shall be such that the dose

to any individual member of the public, from all sources shall not exceed

0.5 rem per reactor year whole body or

3 rem per year thyroid

Total expected dose to the population

around the reactor site shall not exceed 104 man-rem per year.

For any postulated combination of an

initiating event and failure of a

specific safety system the predicted

dose to any individual shall not exceed 25 rem whole body, 250 rem thyroid, and 106 man-rem.

12-75 The frequency per reactor year for

loss of life shall be 10-5 with some

higher degree of confidence levels assigned to more severe consequence

events.

1979 The frequency of core melt accident

5 x 10-7 /ry.

S

R

D

D

Bowen, J.

from

Okrent, D.

UKAEA

UCLA

F

Burns, D. Los Alamos

Scientific Lab.

M

3
Table 1 (Cont'd)

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

Canadi an

Atomic

Energy

Control

Board

Proposed Safety

Requirement for

Licensing of CANDU

Power Plants

11-78 Criteria on frequen

iating event assu

safety system acti

SV*

cy of any initming no special

on- exposure in

Accident Freq.

(per reactor unit

per annum)

R

Consequence at

Event

Whole Body Thyroid

0-0.0005

0.0005-0.005

0.005-0.05

0-0.005

0.005-0.05

0.05-0.5

10-1

10-2 10-3

Criteria on frequency of any serious

event sequence combining initiating

event and safety system failure - ex-,

posure in SV*

R

Consequence at

Event

Whole Body Thyroid

Accident Freq.

(per reactor unit

per annum)

10- 4

10-5

10-6

0.05-0.1

0.1-0.3

0.3-1.0

0.50-1.0

1.0-3.0

3.0-10.0

*ISV = 100 rem

Farmer, F UKAEA 4-67 Suggested

for events

rel eases

acceptable fatality rates R

that lead to various iodine

Consequences of Event

(curies released)

10

102

104

105

106

Fatality Rate

(p~rsons per 105 ry)

0.3

2

3

2

0.7

0.2

Arrived at this result by (1) presenting a thyroid dose for a given release, (2) assumed thyroid cancer rate

per man-rem, and (3) calculated fatality rate per reactor years.

4.
Table 1 (Cont'd)

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

Griesmayer, M. IEEE W.G. 5.4

meeting of

5-15-80

Herbst, J

Hubbard, F.R.

Combustion

Engineering

5-80 An event causing > 10% of noble gas

inventory to be leaked into the primary coolant shall have a frequency

less than once in 5 plant lifetimes

(5 x 10- 3 /ry)

The frequency of large scale core

melt (> 10% of core) shall be less

than once in 25 plant lifetimes

(1 x 10- 4 /ry).

The frequency of large scale uncontrolled release (> 10% of iodine

inventory) shall be--ess than once in

125 plant lifetimes (2 x 10-5/ry).

10-76 Prescribed safety criteria relating

the radiological dose at site boundary as a function of incident

frequency:

Incidents of moderate frequency (10

CFR 50 Appendix I) 1-0.5/r-y.

Infrequent incidents (0.1% of 10 CFR

100) 0.5-1.25 x 10- 2 /r-y.

Incidents'not likely to occur (small

fraction) (1% of 10 FR 100)

1.25 x 10- 2 -10- 3 /r-y.

Incidents of low probability (well

within) 10% of 10 CFR 100) 10 -

10- 4 /r-y.

Incidents of exceedingly low probability up to 10 CFR 100 (10 CFR 100)

10-4- 1O-I/r-y

8-78 The frequency of early death close to

boundary shall be less than 10-6

per person per reactor year.

The frequency of delayed death shall

be less than 3 x 10-5 per person

per reactor year.

M

R

D

Kinchin, G.H. UKAEA F

F

5
Table I (Cont'd)

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

Lellouche, G. EPRI 10-79 If the event probability carries along

with it unacceptable* consequences and

is greater than 10- 4 /yr, then it

must be fixed.

If the event probability is greater

than 10% of 10-4 /yr, its consequences must be thoroughly evaluated

and decision made on the basis of

val ue/impact.

If the event probability is greater

than 1% but less than 10% of 10- 4 ,

it should be thoroughly evaluated and

a decision made (probably) on the

basis of risk comparison with other

local risks (as well as value/impact).

If the event probability is less than

1% of 10- 4 /yr, it should be accepted

*Author does not define unacceptability, he feels such a definition clearly must arise from the socio-political

not the technical process.

1977 Proposed risk acceptance criteria for

the most exposed individuals:

1. For essential technologies, 2 x 10

per year at 90% confidence level

2. For beneficial technologies, 10

per year at 90% confidence level

3. For peripheral technologies, not

generall beneficial to society,

2 x 10-/year at 90% confidence

1evel.

1970 The concept of risk, based on the

authors evaluation of passed history

is as follows:

For accidents with frequencies of

fatality above 10-3 per person per

year (py) immediate action is taken to

reduce the hazard(s).

E

E

E

E

Okrent, D

& Whipple

UCLA School of

Engineering and

Applied Science

F

Otway, H. & UCLA School of

Erdmann, R.C. Engineering and

Applied Science

F

F

6
Table 1 (Cont'd)

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

Otway, H. &

Erdmann, R.C.

(cont'd.)

For accidents with frequencies of

fatalities in the vicinity of 10-4

py, people are willing to spend money

to control hazard.

For -accidents with frequencies of

fatalities in the vicinity of 10-5

py, people still recognize the risk

and may accept a certain amount of

inconvenience to avoid these risks.

For accidents with frequencies of

fatalities of the order of 10-6 py,

they are considered to be of no great

concern by the average person. They

are considered an act of God by some.

5-80 A tentative guideline for the frequency of significant cladding degradation such as TMI 2 would be in the

range of < 10- 4 /r-y.

Return period for TMI 2 like events

for all reactors shall be no greater

than 30 to 60 years.

Expected accidental population dose

< 500/pr/r-y

F

Wall, I. EPRI

Expected accidental

fatalities < 0.05/r-y.

latent cancer

Probabili y of 1 latent cancer fatality < 10- /r-y.

Probability of early death at site

boundary <10-8 /r-y.

ATWS goal of causing significant cladding degradation < 10-5 /r-y.

3-80 Accidents which reach the stage of

core melt, taking account of actual

population of civilian reactors in

operation in the U.S., shall have a

frequency of no more than one such occurrence in 30 years.

F

F

E

A

Zebroski, E. M

7
Table 1 (Cont'd)

Author Affiliation Date Descriptor Code

Zebroski, E.

(cont'd.)

Reactor safety systems and containments shall be maintained and operated

so that even if core melt occurred a

radiation release leading to a dose of

1R or more to the public will have a

frequency per reactor year no higher

than 1 x 10-3.

Code Classification:

M - core melt

R - release

D - dose

S - safety system

C - cladding

F - fatalities

A- ATWS

E - event

8
INDEX BY TITLE

TITLE

A Catal qg of Risk

AUTHOR(s) PAGE

43

FILE

1

CLASS

D

A Feasibility Study of the

Numerical Risk. Criteria in

of Nuclear .Power Plants in

Application of

the Licensing

the United'States

Cohen, B.L.,

Lee, I.S.,

Mitra, S.P.,

Coppola, A.,

Miller, B.,

Hall, R.

93 122 CMD

A General Evaluation Approach to Risk

Benefit for Large Technological Systems

and its Application to Nuclear Power

A Method for Risk Analysis of Nuclear

Reactor Accidents

A Parametric Utility Comparison of Coal

and Nuclear Electricity Generation

A Possible Standard of Risk for

Large Accidental Releases

A Proposed National Nuclear Safety Goal

AIF Position Statement on

Quantitative Safety Goals

An Approach to Societal Risk Acceptance

Criteria and Risk Management

An Index of Hazards for Radioactive Waste

(Revised)

Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria

Application of Risk Allocation to Reactor

Siting and Design

Application of the Concept of Total Risk to

the Licensing of Nuclear Power Stations

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects

which Alter Human Mortality

Approach to (Nuclear Reactor) Safety

Philosophy

Okrent, D.

Maekawa, M.,

Rasmussen, N.,

Vesely, W.

Maures, K.M.

Beattie, J.R.,

Bell, G.D.

Zebroski, E.L.

Atomic Industrial

Forum

Okrent, D.,

Whipple, C.

Watson, S.R.

Johnson, D.

Kastenburg, W.

Otway, H.

46 49 CMD

87 106 M

59 60 D

79 84 CD

75 95 CMM

81 91. CD

31 18 CD

37 35 CM

67 85 CD

73 69 CMD

McNeill, H. 41 8 C

Hirshleifer, J.,

Bregstrom, T.,

Rappaport, E.

Birkhofer, A.

56 55 MD

88 105 C

9
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd.)

TITLE AUTHOR(s)

Approaches to Acceptable Risk

Areas of Uncertainty in Estimates of

Health Risks

Assessment of Acceptable Risk (Using

Nuclear Waste as an Example)

Assessment of Energy Parks vs. Dispersed

Electric Power Generating Facilities

Assessment of Risk, Its Value and

Limitations (Nuclear Installations)

Attributes of Risk Criteria

Catastrophic Events Leading to De-Facto

Limits on Liability

Collision Risk and Economic Benefit Analysis

of Composite Separation for the Central East

Pacific Track System

Comparative Risk-Cost-Benefit Study

of Alternative Sources of Electrical Energy

Comparative Risks of Different Methods

of Generating Electricity

Comparative Biological Hazards of

Chemical Pollutants and Radiation

Concept of a Threshold of Effect in Estimating the Human Health Risk of Chemical

Toxicants

Cost Benefit Comparison of Nuclear and

Nonnuclear Health and Safety Protective

Measures and Regulations

Fischhoff, B.,

Lichtenstein, S.,

Slovic, P.,

Derby, S.,

Keeny, R.

Biomedical and

Environmental

Assessment Div.

Brookhaven Nat'l

Laboratories,

Hamilton, L.

National Council

on Reduction

Protection and

Measurements

General Electric

Company

Dunster, H.,

Vinck, W.

Jaquith, R.E.

Solomon, K.N.,

Okrent, D.

Busch, A.C.,

Colomosca, B.,

Vanderveer, J.

National Science

Information Staff

American Nuclear

Society

Mukherjee, R.N.

Upholt, W.

O'Donnell, E.D.,

Mauro, J.

PAGE FILE CLASS

77 21 CD.'

77 70 CD

76 23 CD

80 72 C

89 109 C

73 94 C

42 16 D

54 53 CMD

66 68 D

32 26 CD

37 42 D

29 30 C

84 102 C

10
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd)

TITLE AUTHOR(s)

Criteria For Radioactive Waste - Cramer, E.N.

A Time for Reason Grebel, T.L.

Criteria for Risk Acceptance; A Health Hull, A.

Physicist's View

Decision Criteria for the Selection of Temme, M.

Risk Criteria

Design Criteria, Concepts and Features Kinchin, G.H.

Important to Safety and Licensing

Determination of Acceptable Risk Criteria Cohen, J.J.

for Nuclear Waste Management

Determining Acceptable Risk Starr, C.,

Whipple, C.

Development of Adequate Risk Standards Farmer, F.R.

Development of Approaches for Acceptable Rowe, W.D.

Levels of Risk

Disasters as a Necessary Part of Mark, R.K.,

Benefit-Cost Analysis Stuart-Al exander,

D.E.

Economic Approach to Risk Benefit Analysis Hirshleifer, J.B.

Education and Public Acceptance of Nuclear Delcoigne, G.

Power Plants

Energy and the Environment - A Risk Benefit Ashley, H.,

Approach Rudman, R.L.

Whipple, C.

E-vironmental Impact of Radioactive Beattie, J.,

Release from Accidents in Nuclear Power Griffith, R.,

Reactors Kaiser, G.

German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants Reactor Safety

Company

Health and Environmental Effects of

Electricity Generation - A Preliminary Report Hamilton, L.D.

High Level Radioactive Waste From Light

Water Reactors Cohen, B.L.

PAGE

89

86

78

40

57

79

75

30

78

30

54

61

FILE

115

101

92

10

58

96

81

30

82

30

51

62

CLASS

C

CD

C

CMD

CMD

C

C

CM

D

CMD

C

C

81 100 D

43

45

52

3

99

36

D

MD

D

11
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd)

TITLE

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large

Scale Technological Systems

How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric

Study of Attitudes Towards Technological Risk

and Benefits

AUTHOR(s)

Baldewicz, W.,

Haddock, E.,

Pragoto, Y.,

Whitley, R.,

Denny, V.

Fischhoff, B.,

Slovic, P.,

Lichtenstein, S.,

Read, S.,

Combs, B.

PAGE FILE CLASS

29 39 D

50 17 MD

Impact on New York City of Reactor

Accidents at Indian Point

Incremental Net Social Benefit Associated

with Using Nuclear Fueled Power Plants

Index of Ham: A Measure for Comparing

Occupational Risk Across Industries

Initial Quantification of Human Errors

Associated with Reactor Safety Systems

Components in Licensed Nuclear Power Plants

Is Solar Power Riskier than Nuclear

Low Level Radiation, A Review of Current

Estimates Hazards to Human Population

Mathpmatical Methods of Probabilistic

Safety Analysis

Measuring Social Risk and Determining

its Acceptability

Medical Aspects of Power Generation,

Present and Future

Methods for the Evaluation of Risk

Nuclear Power as a Public Issue, Protection of the Public Interest

Nuclear Power Debate - Moral, Economic,

Technical, and Political Issues

Bayea, J.

Maoz, I.

40 5 D

42 46 MD

Abrahan, S.C., 45 40 MD

Solomon, .K.A.

Luckas, W.J.,

Hall, R.

Inharber, H.

Myers, D.

Apostolakis, G.

Lathrop, J.

Linnemann, R.

Beattie, J.R.,

Bell, E.D.,

Edwards, J.E.

Doderlein, J.

33 119

90 114

91 107

MD

D

D

49 47 M

53 50 M

91 104 D

32 22 M

92 112 C

Myers, D. 45 4 C

12
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd)

TITLE AUTHOR(s) PAGE FILE CLASS

Nuclear Power: The Answer that Became a

Question An Assessment of Accident Risk

Nuclear Reactor Philosophy and Criteria

Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering

and Risk Assessment

Occupational Doses in the Ontario Hydro

Nuclear Power Program

On a Rational Basis for Designing for

Safety and Operability

On Risk Assessment in the Absence of

Complete Data

On the Evaluation of Biological Hazards

and Competing Risk

On the Selection of Risk Criteria

Policy Statement on Use of PRA in

the Regulatory Process

Possible Forms for Top Level Criteria

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle of Metals Reclaimed from a Decommissioned Nuclear Power Plant

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

Probabilistic Analysis of Accidental

Transients in Nuclear Power Plants

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Nuclear

Power Plant

Sorensen, B.

Atchison, R.J.-

Fussell, J.B.,

Burdick, G.R.

Wilson, R.

Lellouche, G.S.

Kastenberg, W.,

McKone, T.,

Okrent, D.

Watson, G.S.

Parr, V.B.,

Tashjian, B.M.

O'Donnell, E.D.

Temme, M.

O'Donnell, F.,

Cotter, S.,

Kocher, D.,

Etnier, E.,

Watson, A.

Cave, L.,

Inter. Atomic

Energy Agency

Amesz, J.,

Volta, G.,

Garribba, S.

Wall, I.B.

84 108 C

34 45 CMD

68 76 CMD

92 111 C

65 73 CMD

85 .118 MD

57 57 D

.74 97 C

70 90 CM

72 93 C

85 103 MD

36 32 C

63 19 C

69 77 C

35 2 CMD

13
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd.)

TITLE AUTHOR(s)

Proceedings of Quantitative Environmental

Comparison of Coal and Nuclear Electrical

Generation and Their Associated Fuel Cycles

Workshop Vols. I & II

Proposed Criteria for Reactor Risk Assessment

Proposed Safety Requirements for Licensing

of CANDU Nuclear Power Plants

Quantitative Environmental Comparison of

Coal and Nuclear Generation Workshop Summary

Quantitative Safety Analysis-Chapter 2-

Safety Criteria

Rating the Risk

Radioactive Releases from Nuclear Installations

Reactor Siting and Design from a

Risk Viewpoint

Recent Developments in Training of the

Emergency Organization at SSPB's Nuclear

Power Station in Sweden

Recognition, If Not the Acceptance,

of Risk in an Industrial Society

Recommended Design Criteria for Nuclear

Power Merchant Ships

Review of Issues Relevant to Acceptable

Risk Criteria for Nuclear Waste Management

Risk Analysis of the Fuel Cycle in the

Netherlands

Risk Assessment and Health Effects of Land

Application of Municipal Wastewater and

Sludges (Proceedings)

Risk Assessment and the Social Response

to Nuclear Power

MITRE Corporation

Burns, R.D.

Atomic Energy

Control Board

of CANDU

Bernardi, R.,

Borko, B.

Bell, G.D.

Slovic, J.,

Fischhoff, B.,

Lichtenstein, S.

Clarke, R.,

MacDonald, H.

Otway, H.J.'

Erdmann, R.C.

PAGE FILE CLASS

54 52 MD

34 44 CMD

59 29 CMD

61 63 MD

39 34

58 59

C

D

83 113 CM

39 38 CMD

Ekholm, S. 93 117 C

Farmer, F.R.

Dickinson, R.W.

Levine, Z.

Cohen, J.J.

VanOtterloo, R.,

Kenna, N.

Sagik, B.P.

Sorber, C.A.

Otway, H.J.

36 31 CMD

71 80

60 61

88 116

52 37

C

CM

D

0

62 64 MD

14
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd)

TITLE

Risk Assessment of Storage and Transport

of Liquefied Natural Gas and LP-Gas

Risk Associated with Nuclear Power

Risk Benefit Evaluation for Large

Technological System

Risk Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

Ri sk

Risk

Benefit Methodology and Application

Comparison

Risk in Hydroelectricity Production

Risk Management Decision Rules for LWR's

Risk of Nuclear Power Reactors (The)

(A Review of the NRC Reactor Safety Study

WASH-1400)

Risks to the Population and the Individual

from Iodine Releases

Role of Reliability in the LMFBR Industry

Role of Reliability and Risk Assessment

in LMFBR Design: ImDlementation of

Reliability in LMFBR Design

Role of Risk Assessment in the Nuclear

Regulatory Process

Safety Criteria Applied in the Design

of the Polish Test Reactor 'Maria' and

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the

Proposed Containment Systems

Safety Design Criteria and Operating

Experience

AUTHOR(s)

Simmon, J.A.

National Academy

of Science.

Okrent, D.

Miettiner, J.,

Savolinon, I.,

Silvennoinen, P.,

Torino, E.

Vuori, S.

Okrent, D.'.

Coppola, A.,

Hall, R.

Inhaber, H.

Griesmayer, M.

Kendall, H.W.

Beattie, J.R.

Penland, J.R.

Smith, A.M.

Goeser, D.K.

Grahan, J.

Zemanick, P.

Levine,. S.

Nycz, C.

Herbst, J.J.

Hubbard, F.R.

66 67 D

36 33 CM

62 65 D

PAGE

44

FILE

20

51

94

65

66

56

30

121

74

89

56

CMD

D

CLASS

MD

D

CD

MD

33 22 CMD

68 76 C

38 41 CD

82 110 C

69 78 CD

67 75 CD

15
INDEX BY TITLE (Cont'd)

TITLE AUTHOR(s) PAGE FILE CLASS

Secretary's ReDort of the Third 74 98 CD'

Meeting of IEEE 5.4

Sensitivity of Risk Parameters to Human

Errors in Reactor Safety Study for a PWR

Siting Criteria - A New Approach

Social Decision Making For High Consequence,

Low Probability Occurrences

Some Probabilistic Aspects of the Seismic

Risk of Nuclear Reactors

Standards and Criteria in Use or Being

Developed for Reactor Safety

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants:

A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

Bhattacharyya, A.K.

Samanta, P.K.,

Swoboda, A.L.

Hall, R.

Farmer, F.R.

National Planning

Association

Haldi Associates

Hsieh, T.,

Okrent, D.

Minogue, R.

Morgan, M.G.,

Rish, W.R.,

Morris, S.C.,

Meir, A.K.

94 124 MD

96 22 CD

51 43 CD

55 54 D

71 79 C

49 48 D

Supplemental Testimony Regarding Health

Effects Attributable to Coal and Nuclear

Fuel Cycle Alternatives

TMI and the Future of Reactor Safety

Use of PRA in Evaluating Safety of Nuclear

Power

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative

Assessment Methodologies in Public

Decision Making

Gotchy, R.L. 41 6 D

Levine, S.

Jocksimovic, V.,

Vesely, W.

Erickson, Z.,

Currie, J.,

Litchfield, J.,

Adams, R.,

McDonald, C.

95 120 CM

82 123 M

64 66 M

What ATWS Risk Would be Cause for Concern

What Others Think (Will the Past Be

Prologue?)

Wall, I. 81 87 D

Van Horn, A., 80 71 CD

Wilson, R.

16
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s)

AUTHOR

Abrahan, S.C.

Adams, R.C.

American Nuclear Society

Amesz, J.

Apostolakis, G.

Ashley, W.

Atchison, R.J.

Atomic Energy Control

Board

Atomic Industrial Forum

Baldewicz, W.

Bayea, J.

Beattie, J.R.

Beattie, J.R.

TITLE

The Index of Harm: A Measure for Comparing

Occupational Risk Across Industries

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative Assessment Methodologies in Public Decision Making

The Comparative Risks of Different Methods.

of Generating Electricity

Probabilistic Analysis of Accidental

Transients in Nuclear Power Plants

Mathematical Methods of Probabilistic

Safety Analysis

Energy and the Environment - A Risk

Benefit Approach

Nuclear Reactor Philosophy and Criteria

Proposed Safety Requirements for Licensing

of CANDU Nuclear Power Plants

AIF Position Statement on Quantitative

Safety Goals

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large

Scale Technological Systems

The Impact on New York City of Reactor

Accidents at Indian Point

A Possible Standard of Risk for Large

Accidental Releases

Environmental Impact of Radioactive Releases

from. Accidents in Nuclear Power Reactors

Methods for the Evaluation of Risk

Risks to the Population and the Individual

from Iodine Releases

A.Possible Standard of Risk for Large

Accidental Releases

Quantitative Safety Analysis - Chapter 2 -

Safety Criteria

Methods for the Evaluation of Risk

PAGE FILE

45

64

32

69

49

61

34

59

81

29

40

79

86

32

33

79

39

32

40

66

26

77

47

62

45

29

91

39

5

84

100

Beattie, 22

Beattie,

j. R.

J. R.

Bell, G.D.

Bell, G.D.

Bell, G.D.

22

84

34

22

17
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Bernardi, R.

Bhattacharyya, A.K.

Birkhofer, A.

Borko, B.

Bregstrom, T.

Burdick, G.R.

Burns,

Busch,

R. D.

A.C.

TITLE

Quantitative Environmental Comparison of

.Coal and Nuclear Generation Workshop Summary

Secretary's Report of the Third Meeting

of the IEEE W.G. 5.4

The Approach to (Nuclear Reactor) Safety

Philosophy

Quantitative Environmental Comparison of

Coal and Nuclear Generation Workshop Summary

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects

which Alter Human Mortality

Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering and

Risk Assessment

Proposed Criteria for Reactor Risk Assessment

Collision Risk and Economic Benefit Analysis

of Composite Separation for the Central East

Pacific Track System

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

Radioactive Releases from Nuclear Installations

A Catalog of Risk

High Level Radioactive Waste From Light

Water Reactors

Determination of Acceptable Risk Criteria

for Nuclear Waste Management

Review of Issues Relevant to Acceptable

Risk Criteria for Nuclear Waste Management

.Collision Risk and Economic Benefit Analysis

of Composite Separation for the Central East

Pacific Track System

How-Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric

Study of Attitudes Towards Technological

Risk and Benefits

61

74

88 105

61

56

68

34

63

55

76

44

PAGE FILE

63

98

Cave, L.

Clarke, R.H.

Cohen,

Cohen,

B.L.

B.L.

54

36

83

43

52

57

60

53

32

113

1

Cohen, J.J..

Cohen, J.J.

Colomsca, B.

Combs, B.

36

58

61

54 53

50 17

18
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR TITLE PAGE

CopDola, A. A Feasibility Study of the Application of

Numerical Risk Criteria in the Licensing of

Nuclear Power Plants in the United States

FILE

122

121

93

Coppola, A. 94

Cotter, S.S.

Risk Compari son

Cramer, E. N.

Currie, J.W.

Delcoigne, G.

Denny, V.

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle

of Metals Reclaimed from a Decommissioned

Nuclear Power Plant

Criteria for Radioactive Waste -

A Time for Reason

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative

Assessment Methodologies in Public Decision

Making

Education and Public Acceptance of Nuclear

Plants

Historical Perspectives on Risk For Large

Scale Technological Systems

85 103

89 115

64

54

29

66

51

39

21

80

Derby, S. Approaches to Acceptable Risk 77

71

Dickinson, R.W.

Doderlein, J.M.

Dunster, H.J.

Edwards, J.E.

Recommended Design Criteria for Nuclear

Powered Merchant Ships

Nuclear Power as a Public Issue,'Protection

of the Public Interest

The Assessment of Risk: Its Value and Limitations (Nuclear Installations)

92 112

89 109

Methods for the Evaluation of Risk 32 22

Ekholm, S.

Erickson, L.E.

Erdmann, R.C.

Etnier, E.L.

Recent Developments in Training of the Emergency Organization at SSPB's Nuclear Power

Station in Sweden

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative Assessment Methodologies in Public Decision Making

Reactor Siting and Design from a Risk ViewpointPotential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle

of Metals Reclaimed from a Decommissioned

Nuclear Power Plant

93 117

64

39 38

85 103

19
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Farmer, F. R-.

Farmer, F.R.

Farmer, F.R.

Fischhoff, B.

Fischhoff, B.

Fischhoff, B.

Fussell, J.B.

Garribba, S.

General Electric Co.

Goeser, D.K.

Gotchy, R.

Grahan, J.

Grebel, T.L.

Griesmayer, M.

Griffiths, R.F.

Haddock, E.

Haldi Associates

TITLE

Development of Adequate Risk Standards

Siting Criteria - A New Approach

The Recognition, If Not the Acceptance,

of Risk in an Industrial Society

Approaches to Acceptable Risk

How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric

Study of Attitudes Towards Technological

Risk and Benefits

Rating the Risk

Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering and

Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Analysis of Accidental

Transients in Nuclear Power Plants

Assessment of Energy Parks vs. Dispersed

Electric Power Generating Facilities

The Role of Reliability in the LMFBR

Industry

Supplemental Testimony Regarding Health

Effects Attributable to Coal and Nuclear

Fuel Cycle Alternatives

The Role of Reliability and Risk Assessment

in LMFBR Design: Implementation of Reliability in LMFBR Design

Criteria for-Radioactive Waste - A Time for

Reason

Risk Management Decision Rules for LWR

Environmental Impact of Radioactive Releases

from Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large

Scale. Technological Systems

Social Decision Making for High Consequences,

Low Probability Occurrences

PAGE

75

96

FILE

81$

22

36

77

31

21

50

58

68

69

80

68

17

59

76

77

72

76

41 6

38

89

87

41

115

89

86 100

29

51

39

43

20
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Hall, R.

Hall, R.

Hall,

Hall,

R.

R.

Hamilton, L.D.

Hamilton, L.D.

Herbst, J.J.

Hirshleifer, J.

Hirhleifer, J.

Hsieh, T.

Hubbard, F.R.

Hull, A.

Inhaber, H.

Inhaber, H.

International Atomic

Energy Agency

Jaquith, R.E.

Johnson, D.

Joksimovic, V.

TITLE

AFeasibility Study of the Application of

Numerical Risk Criteria in the Licensing of

Nuclear Power Plants in the United States

Initial Quantification of Human. Errors

Associated with Reactor Safety System

Components in Licensed Nuclear Power Plants

Risk Comparison

-Sensitivity of Risk Parameters to Human

Errors in Reactor Safety Study for a PWR

Areas of Uncertainty in Estimates of

Health Risks

The Health and Environmental Effects of

Electricity Generation - A Preliminary Report

Safety Design Criteria and Operating Experience

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects

which Alter Human Mortality

The Economic Approach to Risk Benefit Analysis

Some Probabilistic Aspects of the Seismic

Risk of Nuclear Reactors

Safety Design Criteria and Operating Experience

Criteria for Risk Acceptance: A Health

Physicist's View

Risk in Hydroelectricity Production

Is Solar Power Riskier than Nuclear?

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

Attributes of a Risk Criteria

Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria

Use of PRA in Evaluating Safety of Nuclear

Power

PAGE FILE

93 122

33

94

94 124

119

121

77

45

67

56

30

55

67

86

65

90

63

73

67

70

99

75

55

30

54

75

101

74.

114

19

94

85

82 123

21
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Kaiser, G.O.

Kastenburg, W.

Kastenburg, W.

Keeney, R.

Kema, N.V.

Kendall, H.

Kinchin, G.H.

Kinchin, G.H.

Kocher, W.C.

Lathrop, J.

Lee, I.S.

Lellouche, G.S.

Levine, S.

Levine, S..

Levine, Z.

Lichtenstein, S.

Lichtenstein, S.

Lichtenstein, S.

TITLE

Environmental Impact of Radioactive Releases

From Accidents in Nuclear Power Reactors

Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria

On Risk Assessment in the Absence of Complete

Data

Approaches to Acceptable Risk

Risk Analysis of the Fuel Cycle in the

Netherlands

The Risks of Nuclear Power Reactors (A Review

of the NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400)

Design Criteria, Concepts and Features

Important to Safety and Licensing

Environmental Impact of Radioactive Releases

From Accidents in Nuclear Power Reactors

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle

of Metals.Reclaimed from a Decommissioned

Nuclear Power Plant

Measuring Social Risk and Determining its

Acceptability

A Catalog of Risk

On a Rational Basis for Design for Safety

and Operability

Role of Risk Assessment in the Nuclear

Regulatory Process

TMI and the Future of Reactor Safety

Recommended Design Criteria for Nuclear

Power Merchant Ships

Approaches to Acceptable Risk

How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric

Study of Attitudes Towards Technological

Risk and Benefits

Rating the Risk

PAGE

86

67

85

77

FILE

100

85

118

21

88 116

56

40

56

10

86 100

85 103

53

43

65

82

95

71

77

50

1

73

110

120

80

21

50

58

17

59

22
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Linnemann, R.E.

Litchfield, J.W.

Luckas, W.J.

MacDonald, H.F.

Maekawa, M.

Maoz, I.

Mark, R.K.

Maures, K.M.

Mauro, J.J.

McDonald, C.L.

McKone, T.C.

McNeill, H.

Meir, A.K.

Miettiner, J.

Miller, B.

TITLE

Medical Aspects of Power Generation,

Present and Future

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative Assessment Methodologies in Public Decision Making

Initial Quantification of Human Errors

Associated with Rector Safety System

Components in Licensed Nuclear Power Plants

Radioactivity Releases from Nuclear

Install ati ons

A Method for Risk Analysis of Nuclear Reactor

Accidents

Incremental Net Social Benefit Associated

with Using Nuclear Fueled Power Plants

Disasters as a Necessary Part of BenefitCost Analysis

A Parametric Utility Comparison of Coal and

Nuclear Electricity Generation.

Cost-Benefit Comparison of Nuclear and NonNuclear-Health and Safety Protective Measures

and Regulations

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative Assessment Methodologies in Public Decision Making

On Risk Assesment in the Absence .of Complete

Data

Application of the Concept ofTotal Risk to

the Licensing of Nuclear Power Stations

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants:

A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

Risk Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

A Feasibility Study of the Application of

Numerical Risk Criteria in the Licensing of

Nuclear Power Plants in the United States

PAGE

91

64

33

83

87

42

78

59

84

64

85

41

49

62

FILE

104

66

119

113

106

46

82

60

102

66

118

8

48

65

93 122

23
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR TITLE PAGE FILE

79

Minogue, R.B.

Mitra, S.

MITRE Corporation

Morgan, M.G.

Morris, S.C.

Mukherjee, R.N.

Myers, D.

Myers, D.

Standards and Criteria in Use or Being

Developed for Reactor Safety

A Feasibility Study of the Application of

Numerical Risk Criteria in the Licensing of

Nuclear Power Plants in the United States

Proceedings of Quantitative Environmental

Comparison of Coal and Nuclear Electrical

Generation and their Associated Fuel Cycles

Workshop Vols. I + II

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants:

A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants:

A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

Comparative Biological Hazards of

Chemical Pollutants and Radiation

Low-Level Radiation, A Review of Current

Estimates of Hazards to Human Populations

The Nuclear Power Debate - Moral, Economic,

Technical, and Political Issues

Risk Associated with Nuclear Power

Assessment of Acceptable Risk (Using Nuclear

Waste as an Example)

Social Decision Making for High Consequence,

Low Probability Occurrences

Comparative Risk-Cost-Benefit Study of

Alternative Sources of Electrical Energy

Safety Criteria Applied in the Design of

the Polish Test Reactor 'Maria' and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Proposed

Containment Systems

Cost-Benefit Comparison of Nuclear and NonNuclear Health and Safety Protective Measures

and Regulations

71

54

49

49

37

52

48

48

42

93 122

91 107

45

66

4

National Academy of

of Sciences

National Council on

Radiation Protection

and Measurements

National Planning Assn.

National Science

I-nformation Center

Nycz, C.

67

76

51

66

23

43

68

69 78

O'Donnell, E.P.

84 102

24
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

O.'Donnell,

O'Donnell,

E.P.

F.R.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Okrent, D.

Otway, H.J.

Otway, H.J.

Otway, H.J.

Parr, U.B.

Penland, J.

Pragoto, Y.

Reactor Safety Company

Rappaport, E.

TITLE

Policy Statement on Use of PRA in the

Regul atory Process

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle

of Metals Reclaimed from a Decommissioned

Nuclear Power Plant

A General Evaluation Approach to Risk

Benefit for Large Technological Systems

and its Application to Nuclear Power

An Approach to Societal Risk Acceptance

Criteria and Risk Management

Catastrophic Events Leading to De-Facto

Limits on Liability

On Risk Assessment in the Absence of Complete

Data

Risk Benefit Evaluation for Large

Technological System

Risk Benefit Methodology and Application

Some Probabilistic Aspects of the Seismic

Risk of Nuclear Reactors

Reactor Siting and Design from a Risk Viewpoint

Risk Assessment and the Social Response to

Nuclear Power

The Application of Risk Allocation to

Reactor Siting and Design

On the Selection of Risk Criteria

The Role of Reliability in the LMFBR

Industry

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large

Scale Technological Systems

The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power

Plants

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects

which Alter Human Mortality

25

PAGE FILE

70 90

85 '103

46

31

42

85

36

51

55

39

62

73

.74

68

29

43

56

49

18

16

118

33

30

54

38

64.

69

97

77

39

3

'55
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Rasmussen, N.C.

Read, S.

Rish, W.R.

Rowe, W.D.

Rudman, R.

Sagik, B.P.

Samanta, P.

Savolanon, I.

Silvennoiner,

Simmon, J.A.

Slovic, P.

Slovic, P.

TITLE

A Method for Risk Analysis of Nuclear

Reactor Accidents

How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric

Study of Attitudes Towards Technological

Risk and Benefits

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants:

A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

Development of Approaches for Acceptable

Levels of Risk

Energy and the Environment - A Risk Benefit

Approach

Risk Assessment and Health Effects of Land

Application of Municipal Wastewater and

Sludges (Proceeding)

Sensitivity of Risk Parameters to Human

Errors in Reactor Safety Study for a PWR

Risk-Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

Risk-Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

Risk Assessment of Storage and Transport

of Liquefied Natural Gas and LP-Gas

-Approaches to Acceptable Risk

How Safe is Safe? A Psychometric Study

of Attitudes Towards Technological Risk

and Benefits

Rating the Risks

The Role of Reliability in the LMFBR Industry

The Index of Harm: A Measure for Comparing

Occupational Risk Across Industries

Catastrophic Events Leading to De-Facto

Limits on Liability

PAGE

87

50

49

30

61

52

94

62

62

44

77

50

58

68

45

42

FILE

106

17

48

30

62

37

124

65

65

20

21

17

59

76

40

16

P.

Slovic, P.

Smith, A.M.

Solomon, K.A.

Solomon, K.A.

26
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Sorber, C.A.

Sorensen, B.

Starr, C.

Stuart-Alexander, D.E.

Swoboda, A.L.

Tashjian, B.M.

Temme, M.

Temme, M.

Torino, E.

Upholt, W.M.

Vanderveer, J.

VanHorn, A.

VanOtterloo, R.W.

Vesely, W.

Vesely, W.

Vinck, W.

TITLE

Risk Assessment and Health Effects of Land

Application of- Municipal Wastewater and

Sludges (Proceeding)

Nuclear Power: The Answer that Bec'me a

Question An Assessment of Accident Risk

Determining Acceptable Risk

Disasters as a Necessary Part of BenefitCost Analysis

Sensitivity of Risk Parameters to Human

Errors in Reactor Safety Study for a PWR

On the Selection of Risk Criteria

Decision Criteria for the Selection of

Risk Criteria

Possible Forms for Top Level Criteria

Risk-Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

The Concept of a Threshold of Effect in

Estimating the Human Health Risk of

Chemical Toxicants

Collision Risk and Economic Benefit Analysis

of Composite Separation for the Central East

Pacific Track System

What Others Think (Will the Past be Prologue?)

Risk Analysis of the Fuel Cycle in the Netherlands

A Method for Risk Analysis of Nuclear Reactor

Accidents

Use of PRA in Evaluating Safety of Nuclear

Power

The Assessment of Risk: Its Value and Limitations (Nuclear Installations)

PAGE

52

84

79

78

94

74

78

72

62

37

108

96

92

124

97

92

93

65

29 30

54

80

53

71

88 116

87 106

82 123

89 109

27
INDEX BY AUTHOR(s) (Cont'd)

AUTHOR

Volta, G.

Vuori, S.

Wall, I.B.

Wall , I.B.

Watson, A.P.

Watson, G.S.

Watson, S.R.

Whipple, C.

Whipple, C.

Whipple, C.

Whitley, R.

Wil son, R.

Wilson, R.

Zebroski, E.L.

Zemanick, P.P.

TITLE

Probabilistic Analysis of Accidental Transients In Nuclear Power Plants

Risk Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power

Plant Siting

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Nuclear

Power Plant

What ATWS Risk Would be Cause for Concern?

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle

of Metals Reclaimed from a Decommissioned

Nuclear Power Plant

On the Evaluation of Biological Hazards and

Competing Risks

An Index of Hazards for Radioactive Waste

(Revised)

An Approach to Societal Risk Acceptance

Criteria and Risk Management

Determining Acceptable Risk

Energy and the Environment - A Risk Benefit

Approach

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large

Scale Technological System

Occupational Doses in the Ontario Hydro

Nuclear Power Program

What Others Think (Will the Past Be Prologue?)

A Proposed National Nuclear Safety Goal

The Role of Reliability and Risk Assessment

in LMFBR Design: Implementation of Reliability in LMFBR Design

PAGE

69

62

35

81

85

57

37

31

79

61

29

92

80

75

FILE

77

65

2

87

103

57

35

18

96

62

39

111

71

95

38 41

28
File #39

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large-Scale Technological

Systems

W. Baldewicz, E. Haddock, Y. Pragoto, R. Whitley, V. Denny

University of California School of Engineering and Applied

Science

UCLA-ENG-7485, November 1974

165 pages, 19 figures, 65 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

An empirical study of historical trends in the riskse sustained

by participating populations for various large-scale technological systems is presented. Results are reported for three system

categorizations: Natural Hazards, Man-Made Hazards, and Occupational Hazards. A new model for risk assessment is introduced

that avoids the problems associated with assessing the value of a

human life in risk-benefit decision making. The model treats

risk in terms of loss of life expectancy. From the historical

trends in Lf (the rate of loss of life expectancy) for the rate

systems studied, it concluded that: (1) appreciable disparities

exist in Lf for occupational hazards, despite nearly similar

benefits for the population at risk; (2) federal legislation can

have a significant impact on risk abatement; (3) federal safety

legislation efforts appear to be most responsive to high publicized disastrous accidents rather than to chronic, low-level

hazards; (4) the introduction of a new technology as well as lack

of maintenance of old technology can result in risk level increases; and (5) natural hazard risk levels are extremely low and

can further be reduced in some cases, either by collective or

individual precautionary measures.

File #30

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil i ation:

Publication:

Report/Date:

The Concept of a Threshold of Effect in Estimating the Human

Health Risk of Chemical Toxicants

William M. Upholt

Office of Water and Hazardous Materials, Environmental Protection Agency

Risk Benefit Methodology and Application; some papers presented

at the Engineering Foundation Workshop held at Asilomar, California, September 22-26, 1975

UCLA-ENG-7598, December 1975

29
Contents:

Abstract:

10 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Article states no numerical threshold value is useful in setting

a "safe" level, even if such a level exists in theory. When exposed to radiation, toxic-chemicals or corengenics a safe level

is considered as being the highest dose at which no effects would

be observed. With the term effect being defined in some sense

that requires a significant reaction by a organism as a whole,

then there will be a clearly defined dosage below which there

would be no evidence of a reaction. In all regulatory decisions

the scientist should describe as clearly as possible, what they

believe the risk to be at each of the achievable control levels.

They should describe the model or rationale for arriving at these

estimates together with the rationale for higher or lower estimates, thus providing evidence of their degrees of uncertainty.

This would provide the decision maker with a usable estimate of

reduction in risk that he can balance against the social cost of

the regulation.

File #30

Title: The Economic Approach to Risk-Benefit Analvsis

Author(s):

Publication:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

J. Hirshleifer

Risk-Benefit Methodology and Application; some papers presented

at the Engineering Foundation Workshop held at Asilomar, California, September 22-26, 1975

UCLA-ENG-7598, December 1975

12 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Article covers some of the strengths and weaknesses of costbenefit analysis as a general procedure, then accents the special

feature that distinguishes risk-benefit analysis. The need to

account for a particular type of "external" or non-marketed effect: the chance of loss of life, or other injury suffered bv

members of the community as a result of adoption of a public

policy alternative under consideration is discussed. The author

states that it seems highly unrealistic to assert that the supply

and demand for risk taking will determine a definite "price of

survival probability," a price that everyone will be aware of and

can adapt to, and consequently a risk-taking equilibrium.

File #30

Title: Development of Approaches for Acceptable Levels of Risk

Author(s): W. D. Rowe, Ph.D.

30
Affil iati on:

Publication:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Risk-Benefit Methodology and Application; some papers presented

at the Engineering Foundation Workshop held at Asilomar, California, September 22-26, 1975

UCLA-ENG-7598, December 1975

16 pages, 5 tables, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

The acceptability of new technology options depends upon the development of methods to establish acceptable levels of riske

for society against which these options may be compared. Insight

into the problems of developing acceptability criteria is provided which may lead to the development of such criteria. Discussed are the process of risk determination, objective and subjective risk parameters, valuation of consequences, societal risk

estimates and elements of a methodology for acceptable level of

risk determination, based on risk vs. benefit.

File #18

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

An Approach to Soc-ietal Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk

Management

D. Okrent, C. Whipple

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7746, June 1977

27 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

A quantitative approach to risk acceptance criteria and risk management is proposed for activities involving risk to individuals

not receiving direct benefits, such as employment, from the activity. Societal activities are divided into major facilities or

technologies, all or part of which are categorized as essential,

beneficial, or peripheral, and a decreasing level of acceptable

risk to the most exposed individual is proposed (2 x 10-/year

for essential, 10- 5 /year for beneficial, and 2 x 10-6 /year

for peripheral activity). The riskf probability of death from

a technology or situation, would be assessed at a high confidence level (say, 90%), thereby providing an incentive for gaining better knowledge.

Each risk-producing facility, technology, etc. would have to

undergo assessment of risk both to the individual and to'society.

The cost of the latter would have to be internalized, probably

via a tax paid to the federal government, which in turn would redistribute the benefit as national health insurance or reduced

taxes to the individual. Risk aversion to large events would be

built into the internalization of the cost of risk.

31
File #26

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

The Comparative Risks of Different Methods of Generating

Electricity

A policy statement of the American Nuclear Society

ANS Document PPS-3, October 1979

3 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

The risksf associated with producing electric power with nuclear energy are small when compared with either the risks associated with other methods of electricity production, coal, solar,

fusion, etc. or the societal risks to which we are exposed in our

daily lives. Scientific data supporting this position are well

documented. The public, upon whom ultimate energy decisions

rest, should become aware of these data. The consequence of poor

decisions in the development of electric energy resources is at

least an unwarranted increase in the costs of electricity, and at

worst may lead to long-term society-wide economic trauma. This

position statement considers studies of the comparative risks of

several electrical energy sources, as well as other societal

risks. The American Nuclear Society concludes that compared with

all the sources that have the potential to supply large amounts

of electric power, nuclear energy is as safe as or safer than the

available alternatives and endorses nuclear power in conjunction

with the use of coal as the fuel sources for America's electrical

power needs.

File #22

Ti tl e: Methods for the Evaluation of Risk

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

J. R. Beattie, E. D. Bell, J. E. Edwards

UKAEA Authority Health & Safety Branch

AHSB(S) 159, 1969 reprinted 1971

37 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data no

Mathematical methods are presented which are used to evaluate the

risk to the population distribution surrounding a hypothetical

large power reactor. The reactor is assumed to satisfy a control curve of the Farmer type relating the activity released in a

given range of curies on a logarithmic scale to the probability

that the release will occur. Probability versus consequence results are presented for cases in which the release of iodine is

postulated to have been released. The results are expressed in

the form of curves relating number of cases of thyroid cancer to

32
the probability that the number lies in a given range also on a

logarithmic scale. After a general mathematical discussion has

been given, a variety of particular solutions are examined which

reveal or illustrate the effects of the release control curve,

the dose-risk curve for the individual, and the population distribution for the site, upon the form of the frequency-casualty

curve (in this case the f-N curve where N is the number of cases,

and f is frequency). A method for computing risk,Pc of thyroid

dose due to a release, using the population figures and meteorological data for a site is given, including an outline of the

"STRAP" program for this purpose. The f-N cu-v-s derived in this

way are given for seven population distributions, and general

conclusions regarding comparative risks are discussed.

FJi] e #119,

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Initial Quantification of Human Errors Associated with Reactor

Safety System Components in Licensed Nuclear Power Plants

W. J. Luckas, R. Hall

Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y. 11973

NUREG/CR 1880/BNL-NURE 51323, December 1980

34 pages, 5 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This report provides a methodology for an initial gross

quantification of human errors made in conjunction with several

reactor safety system components operated, maintained, and tested

in licensed nuclear power plants. The resultant human error

rates provide the first real systems bases of comparison for existing derived and/or best judgement equivalent set of such rates

or probabilities.

File #22

Ti tle:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Memorandum:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Risks to the Population and the Individual from Iodine Releases

J. R. Beattie

UKAEA, Authority Health and Safety Branch

Appendix to "Siting Criteria - A New Approach" by F. R. Farmer

Appendix to SM-89/34, 1967

8 pages, 3 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

33
Abstract: Evaluates the risk of releasing iodine from a reactor in or near

a populated area. This is achieved first by assessing the total

number of cases likely to arise in the populated area, and

secondly, by assessing the risk, development of thyroid cancer,

to an individual living near the reactor.

File #44

Title: Proposed Criteria for Reactor Risk Assessment

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

R. D. Burns, III

Energy Division, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory

Response to a letter by W. E. Veseley (NRC), 1979

7 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Author proposes criteria which would require a sufficiently low

chance of core melt such that accidents involving large radioactivity release would contribute negligibly to risk during the

expected life of the nuclear industry. Riskf would be dominated instead by the more frequent, low-level releases from

LOCAs, steam generator tube ruptures, and fuel-handling accidents. The proposed criteria are: (1) one core melt accident

per 2,000,000 year per reactor; (2) an average individual latent

cancer risk of 10-per year per person; (3) accident probability vs consequence curves which predict annual cumulative lowlevel accident releases below 500 person-rem per reactor year

average. No discussion on associated confidence levels are

given.

File #45

Titl e: Nuclear Reactor Philosophy and Criteria

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Paper:

Date:

Contents:

R. J. Atchison

Director, Assessment Branch, Atomic Energy Control Board

Presentation on July 18, 1979, to the Select Committee on Ontario

Hydro Affairs Summer Schedule on Hearings on the Safety of Nuclear Reactors

July 1979

23 pages, 1 table, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

34
Abstract: The Canadian Reactor Safety Philosophy Criteria and Principles

are explained, philosophy being the defense - in depth concept.

Five lines of defense are named and it is noted that emphasis is

placed on quality assurance throughout. In addition, the paper

states that particular care is taken to eliminate opportunities

for human error during operation or during postulated accident

situation. In applying this basic philosophy, a number of

specific criteria and principles are evolved and discussed in detail: (1) design and construction are to conform to the best applicable codes, standards, and procedures; (2) all process systems essential to the reactor shall be designed such that the

total of all serious failures does not exceed 1 per 3 years; (3)

safety systems shall be physically and functionally separate from

process systems to the extent possible; (4) each special safety

system shall be readily testable, as a system, to demonstrate

that its unavailability is less than 10- ; (5) standards are

set for radioactive effluents due to normal operation, for the

effectiveness of special safety systems in case of a process

failure, and for "dual" failures (process and safety system

failure).

File #2

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Paper:

Date:

-Contents:

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plant Regulation

I. B. Wall

Electric Power Research Institute

Paper presented at the Second International Seminar, Structural

Reliability of Mechanical Components & Subassemblies of Nuclear

Power Plants, Berlin (West), Germany, August 20, 1979

August 1979

38 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

A specific program is recommended for more effective use of

probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation.

It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety

Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-up risk assessment research by

USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from

a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice.

The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended

with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing

work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal

being adopted by Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. The author does not

specifically propose a criteria, but comments and evaluates various findings and criteria that exists today. Finally, some

recent actions by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission are described.

Abstract:

35
File #31

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

File #32

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

File #33

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

The Recognition - If Not the Acceptance - of Risk in an Industrial Society

F. R. Farmer

UKAEA

Journal of the Institute of Nuclear Engineering (Nuclear Energy), Volume 18, No. 4, pp. 99-105, August 1977

7 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

A discussion of the recognition and acceptance of risk within our

society. Examines the problem of drafting acceptable risk criteria for both nuclear and non nuclear risks.

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

L. Cave

Pollution Prevention (consultants)

Nuclear Engineering International, Volume 18, No. 203, pp.

365-66, April 1973

2 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Reviews the 45 papers presented at the IAEA International Symposium on Reactor Safety, held at Julich, February 5-9, 1973. The

paper summarizes topics discussed: Acceptable Risk, Accident

Effects and Consequences, Standards and Criteria, Operation

Experience.

Risk Benefit Evaluation for Large Technological Systems

D. Okrent

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

Nuclear Safety, Volume 20, No.' 2, March-April 1979

16 pages, 8 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

36
Abstract: The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and

risk-acceptance criteria (how safe is safe enough?) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of

these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was undertaken. A final report, entitled, "A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk-Benefit for Large Technological Systems and its

Application to Nuclear Power," was issued in 1978. This article

briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with

general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge

and perception of risk and risk acceptance criteria.

File #42

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

Comparative Biological Hazards of Chemical Pollutants and

Radiation

R. N. Mukherjee

International Atomic Energy Agency

International Atomic Energy Agency Bulletin, Volume 20, No. 3,

pp. 31-38, June 1978

8 pages, 3 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

Chemical pollutants from conventional energy and industrial

sources pose a hazard to man's health. Insufficient knowledge of

their detailed mechanisms of interaction with biological systems

represents the greatest handicap in current attempts to realistically assess the health risks of chemical pollutants in the

short and long terms. The author's position is that so far

nuclear power has succeeded in achieving a remarkable health

safety record. A projection from past experiences, together with

continued efforts to improve health safety aspects, seems to

justify an expectation that proposed expansions in the nuclear

power program will not have an unfavorable environmental impact.

The author concludes by saying the potential hazards and challenges !rom the associated radiation in man's environment have

proven manageable. More attention now needs to be paid urgently

to safeguard human health and environment against the chemical

pollutants.

An Index of Hazard for Radioactive Waste (Revised)

S. R. Watson

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Livermore, California

Interim Technical Report PR 78-10-80R, June 1978

File #35

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

37
Contents:

Abstract:

67 pages, 3 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

This is an interim report of a study to establish a risk measure

for radioactive waste repositories and to generate radiological

performance objectives. The index of hazard ought to depend upon

the nature and severity of possible consequences and the probabilities of those consequences. The problem of regulating

radioactive waste repositories is reviewed, and the difficulties

are discussed. Risk-benefit analysis as a tool for regulation

has been suggested, and its contribution is assessed. Decision

analysis as a development of risk-benefit analysis is suggested

as an alternative approach, in particular, use of the concept of

expected utility. A utility function describing the possible

consequences of a radioactive waste repository is discussed in

some detail, with particular attention to the public concerns

which such a function must be address and how it is recommended

to capture them. A specific utility function is developed, and

its elicitation from a particular subject described. The representation of public values in a decision-analytic approach presents some problems and these are fully discussed; recommendations are made as to appropriate methods to carry out this

approach. The vexing question of determining an acceptable

safety limit is studied and recommendations are made concerning

the most suitable way to determine "how safe is safe enough."

Setting an acceptable limit on hazards may be approached by determining the acceptable risk by: (1) expressed preference, (2)

revealed preference, (3) comparison with background radiation,

(4) implication from accepted nuclear hazards, (5) comparison

with the cost of safety, and (6) comparison with alternatives.

Finally, a brief discussion is given of how these concepts may be

employed to generate radiological performance objectives.

File #41

Ti tl e: The Role of Reliability and Risk Assessment in LMFBR Design:

Implementation of Reliability in LMFBR Design

Author(s): J. Grahan, P. P. Zemanick

Affiliation: Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Advanced Reactor Division

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

Nuclear Engineering and Design, Volume 22, No. 1, 1977

9 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

This paper concerns future developments in LMFBR Licensing Technology. Potential future roles of reliability and risk assessment are discussed in the context of providing additional confirmation of the safety of LMFBR designs. Potential acceptability criteria for risk evaluations are outlined. The reliability

38
File #34

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

implications of designing components to the ASME Code Section III

requirements are discussed. General judgments are provided as

well as the preliminary results of probabilistic studies of

selected specific limits.

Quantitative Safety Analysis - Chapter 2 - Safety Criteria

G. D. Bell

UKAEA, Health and Safety Branch

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 13(2), pp. 187-190, August 1970

4 pages, 4 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

From the author's viewpoint representation of a safety criterion

for reactors by means of an acceptable frenuency distribution of

curie releases conforms with a realistic philosophy of safety in

which all sequences of events not at variance with the laws of

nature are to be considered. The frequency-curie release criterion, Farmer's curve, has been given a precise interpretation and

can be used directly by designers and by safety assessors in

evaluating the adequacy of the safety provisions. To accomplish

this evaluation, the method has stimulated examination of reliability considerations of systems and components and the accumulation of reliability data. Finally, by evaluating the consequences to the population around a site expected from a reactor

conforming with criterion, it is possible to compare the nuclear

risk with risks associated with other activities of man and with

the natural risks to which we are all exposed.

File #38

Title: Reactor Siting and Design from a Risk Viewpoint

Author(s):

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

H. J. Otway, R. C. Erdmann

Nuclear Engineering and Design, Volume 13, No. 2, pp. 365-376,

August 1970

12 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

This paper proposes a method for as essing reactor safety, based

upon the individual mortality riskt which allows: (1) the determination of necessary site exclusion radii, and (2) the evaluation of safeguards in terms of the risk reduction provided. Discussed are risk concepts, biological risk, and reactor risks. To

demonstrate this method, a hypothetical 1,000 MW(e) PWR was evaluated. Results indicate that for a maximum individual mortality

39
risk of 10-7 per year .(at the site boundary), an exclusion

radius of.350 m is required. For a densely populated urban site,

the total riskf was found to be 0.003 deaths over a 30-year

reactor lifetime. Riskf was found to be not particularly

sensitive to accident probabilities.

File #5

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Paper/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

The Impact on New, York City of Reactor Accidents at Indian

Point

Jan Beyea

Research Staff, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies,

Princeton University

Statement to the New York City Council June 11, 1979 (corrected

June 20, 1979)

34 pages, 7. figures, 6 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

Discusses: (1) the probability of serious accidents at Indian

Point; (2) the consequences of such accidents for residents of

N.Y.C.; (3) and actions the city and state might take to reduce

the consequences of such accidents. Recommends that technical

studies be made to: (1) investigate alternatives to Indian

Point, noting. that other energy sources have risks associated

with them; (2) improve the safety, such as filtered venting of

containment building, emergency planning, iodine stockpiling.

File #10

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Date:

Contents:

Design Criteria, Concepts and Features Important to Safety and

Licensing

G. H. Kinchin

Safety and Reliability Directorate, United Kingdom Atomic Energy

Authority

1978

8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

This paper states that quantitative risk assessment can be used

to compare the relative safety of different plants, but to be of

greatest value, the method must be used in conjunction with

numerical acceptance criteria. This paper considers criteria for

individual and for societal risks. Existing non nuclear hazards

Abstract:

40
are taken into account in determining the criteria, (See Table 1

of this report) and it is pointed oijt that the risks, both individual and societal, from nuclear plants designed to these

criteria are much lower than those from other causes.

File #8

Ti tl e: Application of the Concept of Total Risk to the Licensing of

Nuclear Power Stations (Draft)

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Date:

Contents:

H. McNeill

Consultant

May 1979

16 pages, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Abstract: The author's position is that advances in the technique of risk

assessment, heightened public awareness of safety, and the pressure from industry has demonstrated the need for improved safety

standards and criteria for the design and operation of nuclear

power stations. This study investigates the problems-associated

with the interpretation and application of current regulations

and criteria in the "licensing process," and concludes that the

concept of limited riskg from a single event which is the basis

for present regulations and guidelines is- a necessary but not

adequate criterion for licensing. The concept of "total risk" is

advocated as a basis for establishing quantitative safety standards and to support licensing decisions. The author uses the

following expression to define risk: Risk to the public involving both economic and health consequences is determined by the

integrated or total risk due to all events which can occur during

a time interval. The total risk is' the summation of all risks

and not just the risk for one event (the limiting event) that

might occur during the time interval.

File #6

Ti tl e: Supplemental Testimony Regarding Health Effects Attributable to

Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cycle Alternatives

Author(s):

Contents:

R. L. Gotchy

25 pages, 6 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

4.1
Abstract: The author's viewpoint is that it is extremely difficult to

provide precise quantitative values for excess mortality and

morbidity, particularly for the coal fuel cycle. While future

technological improvements in both fuel cycles may result in

significant reductions in health effects, it is concluded that

the nuclear fuel cycle is considerably less harmful to man than

the coal fuel cycle. The author notes that although there are

large uncertainties in the estimates of most of the potential

health effects of the coal cycle, the impact of transportation of

coal is based on firm statistics, with this impact alone being

greater than the conservative estimates of health effects for the

entire uranium fuel cycle.

File #46

Ti tl e: Incremental Net Social Benefit Associated with Using NuclearFueled Power Plants

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

I. Maoz

University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Energy

and Kinetics

UCLA-ENG-76117, December 1976

52 pages, 9 figures, 7 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This paper assesses the "incremental net social benefit" (INSB)

resulting from nuclear-fueled, rather than coal-fired, electric

power generation. The INSB is defined as the difference between

the "incremental social benefit" (ISB) -- caused by the cheaper

technology of electric power generation, and the "incremental

social cost" (ISC) -- associated with an increased power production, which is induced by cheaper technology. Section 2 focuses

on the theoretical and empirical problems associated with the assessment of the long-run price elasticity of the demand for electricity, and the theoretical-econometric considerations that lead

to the reasonable estimates of price elasticities of demand from

those provided by recent empirical studies. Section 3 covers the

theoretical and empirical difficulties associated with the construction of the long-run social marginal cost curves (LRSMC) of

electricity. Sections 4 and 5 discuss the assessment methodology

and provide numerical examples for the calculation of the INSB

resulting from nuclear-fueled power generation.

File #16

Ti tl e: Catastrophic Events Leading to De Facto Limits on Liability

Author(s): K. A. Solomon, D. Okrent

42
Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

University of California, School of Engineering and Applied

Science

UCLA-ENG-7732, May 1977

24 pages, 3 tables, 1 figure

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

This study takes an overview of large technological systeme in

society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that

can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities

far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court,

thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several different

potential situations are examined, including dam rupture, aircraft crash into sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All these events are

estimated to have probabilities per year similar or larger than a

major nuclear accident.

File #1

Ti tl e: A Catalog of Risk

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

B. L. Cohen, I. S. Lee

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh

Health Physics, Volume 36, June 1979

15 pages, 28 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

Information on risksf is collected from various sources and

converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in

various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of

various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol

and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and the pill, occupational risks,

socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S.

armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production,

and technology in general. Information is also included on

methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, "very

hazardous" activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks

of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar

or competing activities.

File #3

Title: The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants

Author(s): Reactor Safety- Company (Gesellschaft fur Reaktorscherheit-GRS)

43
Affiliation: For the German Federal Minister for Research and Technology

Report/Date: Press Release, August 14, 1979.

Contents:

Abstract:

5 pages

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

In this study, the risk due to accidents or incidents in nuclear

power plants was investigated with particular reference to the

specific German situation. Risks due to normal operation or

other fuel cycle facilities are not taken into account. Any contribution from war, sabotage, etc. was also neglected. Risk analyses suffer from considerable uncertainties due to the present

stage of development of the methods and the available data basis.

The results, therefore, can only be considered as estimates of

the risk to be evaluated. The study takes into account many results from investigations that are also applied in nuclear licensing processes. A peculiarity of risk analyses is the fact that

the introduction of additional safety features will reduce the

occurrence probability, but not the resulting damage of an accident. Even with optimum safety provisions, the occurrence probability cannot be made exactly zero. Therefore, the question of

risk acceptability cannot be separated from the accident probability.

File #20

Titl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Date:,

Contents:

Abstract:

Risk Assessment of Storage and Transport of Liquefied Natural

Gas and LP-Gas

J. A. Simmon

Science Applications, Inc. for the Environmental Protection

Agency

November 25,. 1974

90 pages, 3 appendices, 15 tables, 9 figures

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This report presents the results of a study to develop a method

for assessing the societal risk of transporting LP-Gas (liquefied

petroleum gas) and LNG (liquefied natural gas). The method is

illustrated through its application to the transport of LP-Gas by

tank truck and LNG by tankship in the U.S. The measure of risk

used was the probability of fatalities resulting from accidental

leaks and tank ruptures. Fatalities are a direct, unambiguous

measure that facilitates comparison with the risk of other

activities via available historical accident data (e.g., fire,

explosions, etc.).

44
File #4

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Date:

Contents:

The Nuclear Power Debate -'Moral, Economic, Technical and Political Issues

D. Myers III

IRRC - Investor Responsibility Research Center,

1977

153 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

A review of 'the issues surrounding inuclear power including reactor safety, waste management, safeguards, economic comparisons,

etc., with the views of pro and antinuclear experts frequently

interspersed, shows unresolved issues and reasons for the current

slowdown in plant licensing and construction.

Abstract:

File #99

Title:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

The Health and Environmental Effects of Electricity Generation -

A Preliminary Report

Edited by L. D. Hamilton

Brookhaven National Laboratory

Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Group (BEAG)

BNL 20582, BEAG-HE/EE, July 30, 1974

131 pages, 10 figures, 1i tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This paper describes the total effort of the BEAG at BNL, including the effort to estimate resultant deaths and health effects

due to air pollutants caused by burning fossil fuels, including

SO2 particulates. Shows derivation of tables of increased

mortality and morbidity due to operation of single 1000 MW plants

using various fuels (coal, oil, gas, 'uranium, hydro).

File #40

Title: The Index of Harm:

Across Industries

A Measure for Comparing Occupational Risk

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

K. A. Solomon, S. C. Abrahan

Rand Corporation,

R-2409-RC, June 1979

45
Contents:

Abstract:

36 pages, 9 tables, 1 figure

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This report explores the implications of an index of harm methodology that compares occupational risk among works exposed to

radiological and non radiological harms. The author describes

the index of harm as being an empirically derived measure of

occupational risk in an industry and is defined as being the

fraction of years lost in a particular industry from any cause or

event by a population exposed to those causes or events for a

period of one year (250 working days). Using methodology proposed by ICRP and assigning weighting factors to arrive at an

"index of harm," the authors try to compare risks of harms based

on raw number of fatalities and various perceptions of the

"value" of different fatalities to show what happens to relative

increases of harm when different values are assigned to perception.

File #49

Title: A General Evaluation Approach to Risk Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power

Author(s): Edited by D. Okrent

Affiliation: UCLA School of Engineering & Applied Science

Report/Date: UCLA-ENG-7777, December 1976

Contents: 37 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Abstract: This report briefly reviews various aspects of risk-benefit analysis, by condensing 37 UCLA Engineering reports on risk-benefit

analysis. The objective of the overall study was to: (1) make

significant strides in the provision of improved bases or

criteria for decision-making involving risk to the public health

and safety (where a risk involves the combination of a hazard and

the probability of that hazard); (2) make significant progress in

the structuring and development of improved, and possibly

alternative, general methodologies for the assessment of risk and

risk-benefit for technological systems; (3) develop improvements

in the techniques for the quantitative assessment of risk and benefit; and (4) apply methods of risk and risk-benefit assessment

to specific applications in nuclear power (and possibly other

technological systems) in order to test methodologies, to uncover

needed improvements and gaps in technique and to provide a partial, selective, independent assessment of the levels of risk

arising from nuclear power. The principal chapters of this report are Risk-Benefit and Risks in Society, On the Role and

Methods of Risk-Benefit Analysis and Decision Analysis, Historical Perspectives on Risk and Risk Management, Societal Knowledge

46
of Hazards and Risks, Psychological Aspects of Risk-Benefit and

the Perception of Risk, On Economic Aspects of Risk-Benefit, Risk

Acceptance Criteria and Risk Management, Risk Assessment Methodology, Applications to Nuclear Reactor Safety.

Following is a list of the 37 UCLA reports that were condensed

and made up this report:

TITLE

Mathematical Methods of Probabilistic Safety Analysis

Bio Statistical Aspects of Risk-Benefit: The Use of Competing

Risk Analysis

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects Which Alter Human

Mortality

Historical Perspectives on Risk for Large-Scale Technological

Systems

A Prediction of the Reliability of the Core Auxiliary Cooling

System for a High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

Pressure Vessel Integrity and Weld Inspection Procedure

A Survey of Expert Opinion on Low Probability Earthquakes

On the Average Probability Distribution of Peak Ground Accelerations in the U.S. to Strong Earthquakes

The Effect of a Certain Class of Potential Common-Mode Failures

on the Reliability of Redundant Systems

Risk-Benefit Methodology and Application: Some Papers Presented

at the Engineering Foundation Workshop,. September 22-26, 1975,

Asilomar, California

A Computer-Oriented Approach to Fault Tree Construction

The Effect of Human Error on the Availability of Periodically

Inspected Redundant Systems

An Integrated Safe Shutdown Heat Removal System for Light Water

Reactors

On the Failure Modes of Alternate Containment Designs Following

Postulated Core Meltdown

Probability Intervals for the Top Event Unavailability of Fault

Trees

Statistical Models for Competing Risks Analysis

47
TITLE

On Risk Assessment in the Absence of Complete Data

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

Relative Hazard Potential - The Basis for Definition of Safety

Criteria for Fast Reactors

On the Probability of Loss of D.C. Power following A.C. Failure

in a Nuclear Power Plant

Some Probabilistic Aspects of the Seismic' Risk of Nuclear

Reactors

Incremental Net Social Benefit Associated With Using Nuclear

Fueled Power Plants

On Risks from the Storage of Hazardous Chemicals

Failed Tendon Inspection via-Monte Carlo

Decision-Table Development for Use with the Cat Code for the

Automated Fault-Tree Construction

How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes

Towards Technological Risks and Benefits

A Parametric Utility Comparison of Coal and Nuclear Electricity

Generation

A Look at Alternative Core Disruption Accidents in LMFBR's

Liability and Safety in Nuclear Power Plants

Catastrophic Events Leading to DeFacto Limits on Liability

An Approach to Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk Management

Some Aspects of the Fire Hazard in Nuclear Power Plants

Probability Intervals For the Reliability of Complex Systems

Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Earthquake Ordances for the City of Los Angeles, California - A

Brief Case Study

The Safety Incentive Theory of Liability

Post-Accident Filtration as a Means of Improving Containment

Effectiveness

A Look at Alternative Core Disruption Accidents in LMFBR's, Part

II.

48
File #48

Ti tl e:

Author( s)/

Affiliation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

Sulfur Control in Coal Fired Power Plants: A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

M. G. Morgan, W. R. Rish, Carnegie-Mellon University

S.C. Morris, Brookhaven National Laboratory

A.K. Meir, University of California at Berkeley

Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Volume 28, No.

10, October 1978

5 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The authors state that the optimum level of sulfur pollution control for a coal fired power plant is the point where the sum of

societal costs, due to pollution, and control costs is minimized.

This basic micro-economic concept has been of limited practical

value because of considerable uncertainty in estimating both

costs. A probabilistic approach is used to characterize these

uncertainties quantitatively for a hypothetical 1000-MW(e) plant

located near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Mortality effects within

a distance of 80 km of the plant have only been included. The

results allow explicit consideration of attitude toward risk and

appropriate level of investment to prevent deaths. Limitations

of the findings are discussed. Implications are described for

policy based on alternative sets of values and assumptions.

File #47

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Mathematical Methods of Probabilistic Safety Analysis

G. Apostolakis

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7464, September, 1974.

317 pages, 64 figures, 17 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data no

This report presents the mathematical methods useful in reliability and safety studies. The problems that these studies deal with

concern: (1) the prediction of the probability that a specified

function will be performed satisfactorily over a period of time or

per demand; and (2) the identification of events and their probabilities which may lead to unfavorable circumstances endangering

the health of the public. This document includes summaries of

illustrative applications as well as references to the literature.

Chapter 2 describes the methods of handling problems involving

one component or simple logical configurations -- reliability

49
theory. An introduction to the fundamentals of probability theory

and statistics is given. The modeling of the failure of components by statistical distributions is discussed, followed by the

mathematical description of various maintenance policies. Chapter

3 deals with analysis of complex systems. Fault-tree methodology

is developed in detail, and its uses and limitations are investigated. Methods, like the failure modes and effects analysis are

described. Special problems arising from software and human errors as well as the possibility ofcommon mode failures also are

discussed. Finally, the use of statistical techniques to handle

major natural phenomena and. methods 'of dealing with systems without exploiting their logical structure are investigated.

File #17

Ti tl e: How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes

Towards Technological Risk and Benefits

Author(s): B. Fischhoff, P. Slovic, S. Lichtenstein, S. Read, B. Combs

Affiliation: UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

Report/Date: UCLA-ENG-7717, January 1977

Contents:

Abstract:

47 pages, 8 figures, 7 tables

Criteria no, Methodology, yes, Data yes

One of the fundamental questions addressed by risk-benefit analysis is "How safe is safe enough?" Chauncey Starr has proposed

that economic data be used' to reveal patterns of acceptable riskbenefit tradeoffs. The present study investigates an alternative

technique, in which. psychometric procedures were used to elicit

quantitative judgments of perceived risk, acceptable risk, and

perceived benefit for each of 30 activities and technologies. Thp

participants were seventy-six members of the League of Wompn

Voters.

The results indicated little systematic. relationship between

perceived existing risks and benefits of the 30 risk items. Current risk levels were generally viewed as unacceptably high; when

they were adjusted to what would be considered acceptable risk

levels, however, risk was found to correlate with benefit. Nine

descriptive attributes of risk were also studied. These nine

attributes seemed to tap two basic dimensions of risk. One dimension apparently discriminated between high and low technology

activities, with the high end being characterized by new, involuntary, poorly known activities, often with delayed consequences.

The second dimension primarily reflected the certainty of death

given that adversity occurs. These dimensions proved to be

effective predictors to the tradeoff between acceptable risk and

perceived benefit. The limitations of the present study and the

relationship between this technique .and Starr's technique are

discussed, along with the implications of the findings for policy

decisions.

50
File #43

Ti tl e:

Author(s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Social Decision Making for High Consequence, Low Probability

Occurrences

National Planning Association and Haldi Associates

October 1978

216 pages, 5 figures, 12 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

This study deals with the process of reaching social decisions

that involve low-probability, high-consequence outcomes. It is in

3 major parts. Part I reviews the two main classes of criteria

proposed for social decisions: (1) market mechanisms and costbenefit analysis and (2) the approaches of Rawls and Buchanan to

achieving a social consensus. The authors propose a criteria composed of eight elements for evaluating a social decision process

capable of application in judicial, legislative, academic, and

managerial situations.

Parts II and III are case studies of different decision procedures. The former inspects the administrative law procedure using

the U.S. EPA chlordane/heptachlor suspension hearings as an example. The legal procedure is concluded to be a forward-looking

decision process which attempts to increase social acceptability

of the outcome. The latter examines the disjointed decision procedure concerning the disposal of nuclear waste. In both cases

the eight criteria proposed in Part I nevertheless provide a useful tool for evaluating the process.

File #30

Titl e:,

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Risk-Benefit Methodology and Application: Some Papers Presented

at the Engineers Foundation Workshop, September 22-26, 1975,

Asilomar, California

Edited by D. Okrent

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7598, December, 1975.

28 papers, 644 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

The goal of this workshop is to assess quantitatively the state of

the art on risk-benefit methodology. Two new large technology

areas are considered for risk evaluations: (1) nuclear reactors;

51
and (2) shipment and storage of liquefied natural gas. Engineering failures in neither of these technologies can result in incidents of large consequence. Decision or event-tree techniques,

fault-tree techniques, or failure-mode and effects analysis are

discussed as methods for risk analysis.

File #37

Title: Risk Assessment and Health Effects of Land Application of

Municipal Wastewater and Sludges, (Proceedings)

Author(s): B. P. Sagik, C. A. Sorber

Affiliation: University of Texas at San Antonio, Center for Applied Research

and Technology, Proceedings of Conference held December 12-14,

1977

Contents:

Abstract:

23 papers, 330 pages

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

These proceedings are intended as a record of the conference on

risk assessment and health effects of land application of municicipal wastewater and sludges. The topic on agents of health significance covers health hazards associated with wastewater effluents and sludges; chemical agents of health significance in

municipal wastewater effluents and sludges; and conventional methods of epidemiology appropriate for risk assessment of virus contamination of water. The examination of the impact on the food

chain includes discussions on opportunities for virus transport;

land application of sewage wastes; problems in proving that parasites pass to people from foods produced with refuse; the impact

of metals present in municipal sludges; and the potential health

hazard and risk assessment of toxic organic chemicals in wastewater and sludge. The impact on water resources is discussed in

terms of minimizing the impact of viruses on water resources;

minimizing the virological impact on water resources from spray

irrigation of municipal wastewater; potential impact on water resources of bacterial pathogens; obligate parasites; limitations

for land disposal of wastewater and sludges; and viruses in the

environment. Pathogenic aerosols are discussed in terms of aerosol monitoring for microbial organisms and a model for predicting

pathogen concentrations in wastewater aerosols. Factors affecting

risk assessment are evaluated in terms of wastewater unit process

efficiency; extrapolation models for risk assessment; and public

choice and the land application of municipal wastewaters and

sludges.

File #36

Titl e: High Level Radioactive Waste from Light-Water Reactors

Author(s): B. L. Cohen

52
Affil iation:

Periodical:

Contents:

Abstract:

Department of Physics, University of Pittsburgh

Reviews of Modern Physics, Volume 40, No. 1, January 1977

20 pages, 13 figures, 6 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The production of radioactive nuclei during the operation of a

light-water reactor is traced, and their decay history is followed. The potential environmental impacts of this waste are calculated and shown to be comparable to those of other materials we

produce. Assuming deep burial, it is shown that there are important time delays which prevent the waste from reaching the biosphere in the first few hundred years while its toxicity is decreasing by several orders of magnitude. In the long term, the

most important pathway to man was found to be through groundwater

into food and water supplies, with consequences calculated to be

0.4 fatalities in 100 years from each year of all-nuclear power

in the U.S. Other pathways considered and found to be less

important include meteorites, volcanism, release through ground

water to airborne particulate, and human intrusion by drilling and

mining for unspecified materials and for salt. For time scales

longer than 106 years, nuclear power is shown to reduce man's

exposure to radiation by consuming uranium. A cost-benefit analysis is developed for surveillance of buried waste. Under the

models and assumptions it is shown that buried high-level waste is

environmentally much less dangerous than uranium mill tailings.

File #50

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Measuring Social Risk and Determining Its Acceptability

J. Lathrop

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Lawrence, California

UCRL-81060, July 14, 1978

26 pages, 4 figures

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data no

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises

several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This

paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of

those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk

measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology

presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations.

53
File #51

Ti tl e: Education and Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power Plants

Author(s): G. Delcoigne

Affiliation: International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria

Report/Date: Nuclear Safety, Volume 20, No. 6, November-December 1979

Contents:

Abstract:

8 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The evolution of the so-called nuclear debate from the late 1960

to the present time is reviewed, and the current manifestations of

the antinuclear movement in many countries are described. Despite

the emergence of pronuclear groups and discussions in many countries, the author concludes that public education is the crux of

the problem and he discusses the role of the International Atomic

Energy Agency.

File #52

Titl e:

Author(s):

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Proceedings of Quantitative Environmental Comparison of Coal and

Nuclear Electrical Generation and Their Associated Fuel Cycles

Workshop, Volumes I and I1I

MITRE Corporation, McLean, Virginia

MTR-7010, Volumes I and II

2 volumes, 15 papers, 545 pages

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

This document, Volumes I and II, contains the edited transcripts

of the presentation and discussions at a workshop on the Quantitative Environmental Comparison of Coal and Nuclear Electric Generation and Their Associated Fuel Cycles held at the MITRE Corporation in McLean, Virginia, on May 27 and 28, 1975. The purpose of

the workshop, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, was to

compile the information and expert opinions to quantify the risks

arising from the various phases of coal and nuclear fuel cycles to

assess the economic costs and environmental consequences associated with electric generation.

File #53

Ti tle: Collision Risk and Economic Benefit Analysis of Composite Separation for the Central East Pacific Track System

Author(s): A.C. Busch, B. Colomosca, J. VanderVeer

54
Affiliation: Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration

Report/Date: FAA-EM-77-5, June 1977

Contents:

Abstract:

100 pages, 3 appendices, 36 tables,. 22 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

This report-presents an evaluation of the application of composite

separation to the Central East Pacific (CEP)track system. Criteria for the evaluation were a collision riskg and an economic

benefits comparison of the existing four-route and proposed com-,

posite six-route systems. Collision risk is defined as the expected number of mid-car accidents in 10 million track system

flying hours due to the loss of the planned separation. A sixmonth data collection was performed. Radar data from land-based

facilities in California and Hawaii and from Ocean Station Vessel

November were processed to determine aircraft navigation performance. Utilization of the existing system was gauged from air

traffic control facility data, 'and flight crew survey forms were

used to collect information necessary for comparative analysis

purposes., The report describes estimation of collision risk model

parameters from the data. Lateral, longitudinal, and composite

collision risks were estimated for the existing.and proposed-composite systems based upon acceptedNorth Atlantic Systems Planning

Group (NAT/SPG) methodology, -while vertical collision risk was

calculated based upon previous NAT/SPG studies. Lateral collision

risk for the proposed composite -system was found to be lower than

for the existing structure. Comparisons of fuel burn and flight

times indicated that the proposed, composite system would be more

economically beneficial .than the existing route configuration. As

a result of the study, the proposed composite system was recommended for implementation on a trial basis.

File #54

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Some Probabilistic Aspects of the Seismic Risk, of Nuclear

Reactors

Hsieh, T., Okrent, D.

University California School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-76113, December 1976

75 pages, 22 tables,10 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The potential for existing 'cracks in piping systems to grow to

critical size and cause system failure during a severe earthquake

was examined, and the critical crack size based on linear elastic

mechanics was reviewed. A crude method of relating the initial

crack size, the range of strain produced in a component, and the

number of cycles to failure was proposed and discussed. The

significance of piping failure due to ordinary crack growth

55
other than the intergranular stress corrosion under seismic loading was found to be comparable to the potential for failure due

to crack growth under severe seismic loads. A simplified piping

system with only a few snubbers and hangers as seismic restraints

was devised. The authors state that the inverse of the maximum

Von Mises ratios at a few nodal points of the piping system was

used as the basis for indicating the change in safety factor due

to piping restraint failures. The potential importance of seismic events leading to a core melt accident was examined by factoring the, effect of design errors and system degradation into an

estimate of the probability of a core-melt accident due to seismic

events.

File #55

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Applying Cost-Benefit Concepts to Projects which Alter Human

Mortality

Hirshleifer, J., Bregstrom, T., Rappaport, E.

University California School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7478, November 1974

144 pages, 2 Appendices

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

The authors contention is that a cost-benefit analysis represents

the only established technique at hand for evaluating and weighing

the consequences of large technological systems. The "ordinary"

net benefits of large technological systems like nuclear power,

the consequences other than those involving risks to life and

limb, can be evaluated by aggregating the impacts upon all individuals, weighted in accordance with the values placed upon those

impacts by the idividuals themselves. For goods and resources

traded in markets, the marked prices represent these values. For

unmarketed effects, like damage to environment, it is possible to

infer market-value equivalents. The net benefit, at a moment of

time, of a technological system like nuclear power can be divided

into two components: (1) the cost saving due to displacement of

more costly conventional power sources; and (2) the consumer benefit or surplus associated with the net increment of power supplied. Summation over time is accomplished by the Present-Value

formula which discounts future cost and benefit elements so as to

reduce them to an equivalent in present worth. Also included are

discussions on the "Value of Life" -- willingness-to-pay approach

and the value of survival in life-cycle models.

File #56

Ti t e: The Risks of Nuclear Power Reactors (A Review of the NRC Reactor

Safety Study, WASH-1400 NUREG-75/014)

56
Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

H.W. Kendall, Study Director

Union of Concerned Scientists

Union of Concerned Scientist, August 1977

210 pages, 5 appendices

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

An examination of WASH-1400 with a review of the major technical

issues that undermined the validity of WASH-1400 was conducted by

the Union of Concerned Scientist. Issues addressed are methodology, common cause failures, design adequacy, safety issues,

radiation dispersion model, emergency response, radiological effects, misinformation and misuse, reassessment of risk. Summation

of the technical evaluations presented, resulted in some of the

following risk reassessment values: (1) that the chance of melting accompanied by large radioactive release maybe 1 in 10,000 per

reactor year (twenty times greater than the RSS value), (2) prompt

injuries and fatalities maybe 100 to 1,000 times greater than the

RSS estimates, and (3) correction of the RSS risk results for

understatement of long-term consequences shows that the largest

accident considered could result in over 300,000 total fatalities.

File # 57

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

On the Evaluation of Biological Hazards and Competing Risks

Watson, G.'S.

Princeton University, Department of Statistics

TR-132-SER-2, September 1977

14 pages

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

This report is an expanded version of some extemporaneous remarks

made at the end of a meeting held at the Institute for Energy analysis, Oak Ridge Assoc. Univ. Oak Ridge, Tennessee, September

7-8, 1977. An effort is made to find a biological basis for the

competing risk model and potential lifetimes. Clifford's results

with illness and death models are described. Miscellaneous remarks are made on several other related topics.

File #58

Ti tl e: Determination of Acceptable Risk Criteria for Nuclear Waste Management

Author(s): Cohen, J.J.

57

--------.. ::..-.s-V
Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University California, Livermore

California

UCLA 52404 October 1977

65 pages, 4 appendices

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

A general methodology is developed, in this report, for use in the

development of an acceptable risk criteria (ARC) for waste management operations, which consists of performing a "scoping" study

to define issues, determine an optimal methodology for their resolution, and compile a data base for ARC development. The issues,

spanning technical, psychological, and ethical dimensions, are

categorized in several major areas: (1) unplanned or accidental

events, (2) present vs future risks, (3) institutional controls

and retrievability, (4) dose-response mechanism and uncertainty,

(5) spatial distribution of exposed populations, (6) different

types of nuclear wastes, and (7) public perception. The optimum

methodology for developing ARC was determined to be multiattribute decision analysis encompassing numerous specific techniques

for choosing, from among several alternatives, the optimal course

of action when the alternatives are constrained to meet specified

attributes. The data base developed during the study comprises

existing regulations and guidelines, maximum permissible dose,

natural geologic hazards, nonradioactive hazardous waste practices, bioethical perspectives, and data from an opinion survey.

File #59

Ti tl e: Rating the Risk

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S.

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

Environment, Volume 21, No. 3, April 1979

39 pages, 3 tables, 6 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

Members of four different groups, 30 college students, 40 League

of Women Voters, 25 business and professional people, and 15

persons selected for their professional experience with risk assessment, are asked to rate thirty different activities and technologies according to their present and perceived risk and where

and how nuclear power plants relate. Paper briefly looks at the

biases by which people judge, analysis of those judgements, what

determines risk perception, and the failibility of judgement.

58
File # 29

Ti tl e: Proposed Safety Requirements for Licensing of CANDU Nuclear Power

Plants

Author (s): Atomic Energy Control Board of Canada

Report/Date: November 1978

Contents:

Abstract:

26 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

This paper explains the Canadian Reactor Safety Philosophy,

Criteria and Principles. The philosophy used is a defense-indepth concept, naming five lines of defense and noting that emphasis is placed on quality assurance throughout. This document

proposes basic requirements that could form the framework for detailed licensing regulation that would govern the design, construction and operation of a nuclear power plant in Canada. Foremost among these requirements are: (1) the use of diversity to

ensure that there is more than one way to perform a function, (2)

the use of redundancy to ensure that a single malfunction cannot

disable a system, (3) the insistance that safety systems shall, as

far as practicable, be independent from each other and from process systems, (4) the prevention of process failures that could

lead to the release of radioactive substances and the need to

limit the frequency of such failures to value that is as low as

reasonably achievable, and (5) the judicious use of probability

arguments in which values for unavailability and for failure

frequency must be based on direct experience or reasonable extrapolations therefrom.

In applying this basic philosophy, a number of specific criteria

and principles were evolved and discussed in detail, those briefly

being: (1) design and construction is to the best applicable

codes, standards and procedures; (2) all process systems essential

to the reactor shall be designed such that the total of all serious failures do not exceed 1 per 3 years; (3) safety systems

shall be physically and functionally separate from process systems

to the extent possible; (4) each special safety system shall be

readily testable, as a system, to demonstrate that its unavailability is less than 10-3; (5) sets standards for radioactive effluents due to normal operation, for the effectiveness of

special safety systems in case of a process failure, and for

"dual" failures.

File #60

Ti tl e: A Parametric Utility Comparison of Coal and Nuclear Electricity

Generation

Author(s): Maures, K.M.

59
Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7719, February 1977

65 pages, 4 tables, 6 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

In this paper the advantages and limitations of a quantitative

model for decision making were discussed. Several different

quantitative models are presented. (The model chosen was the

expected utility maximum model, considered was the expected

value maximization rule, the mini max rule, the maxi max rule

and the Hurewicz rule.) Choosing a multivariant risk neutral

extension, using constant absolute risk aversion utility function for monetary effects and for increased mortality, parameters of this utility function can be selected to represent the

decision maker's preference. After describing an illustrative

set of data on the risks inherent in coal burning and nuclear

generation facilities, the chosen utility model was used to compare the overall risks associated with each technology, using

the expected utility model described earlier to evaluate the

overall desirability of a coal-burning plant and an alternative

nuclear reactor. The value of the absolute risk aversion for

increased mortality risks proved to be the most significant

value in determining the preferred technology. Nuclear facilities are preferable if R(y) < 5 x 10- , and coal-burning

facilities are more advantageous if R(y) > 15 x 10- 3 . For the

intermediate case, when R(y) = 10 x 10- , the nuclear facility

is preferred for larger risk aversion for monetary risks, R(x),

while the choice of a coal facility results from larger values

of life. The different risk distributions considered for coal

and nuclear technologies did not produce a significant effect on

these results.

File #61

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Review of Issues Relevant to Acceptable Risk Criteria for Nuclear Waste Management

Cohen, J.J.

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Conference on Waste Management

78, University of Arizona, March 1978

Report/Date: Conf-780316-2, February 22, 1978

Contents:

Abstract:

13 pages, 4 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

This report states that waste management programs require definitive objectives against which one could adequately judge the

acceptability of any operation or methodology. The development

of acceptable risk criteria for nuclear waste management re60
quires the translation of publicly determined goals and objectives into definitive issues which, in turn, require resolution. Since these issues are largely of subjective nature,

they cannot be resolved by technological methods. The author's

viewpoint is that development of acceptable risk criteria might

best be accomplished by application of a systematic methodology

for the optimal implementation of subjective values. Multiattribute decision analysis is well suited for this purpose.

File #62

Ti tl e:

Edi tors:

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Energy and the Environment - A Risk Benefit Approach

Ashley, H. Rudman, R., Whipple, C.

Stanford University, EPRI

Pergamon Press, NY, 1976

11 papers, 305 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The editors present a collection of seminars delivered during

the fall of 1974 that were sponsored by Stanford University and

EPRI. These seminars were a set of expositions under the title

given above. Nuclear power related seminars were entitled:

general philosophy of risk-benefit analysis; future alternatives

and technical options for the national energy system; health effects of electricity generation from coal, oil, and nuclear

fuel; public aspects of energy systems; the rate of discount for

long-term public investment; benefit-risk trade-offs in nuclear

power generation; fault tree analysis as an example of risk

methodology; energy and human welfare; and energy and the envi ronment.

File #63

Title:

Author(s):

Affil iati on:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Quantitative Environmental Comparison of Coal and Nuclear

Generation Workshop Summary

Bernardi, R., Borko, B.

MITRE Corporation

MTR-7004, September 1975.

12 papers, 90 pages, 16 charts

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

On May 27-28, 1975 the MITRE Corporation held a workshop addressing the quantitative environmental comparison of coal and

nuclear generation, as part of a continuing program of MITRE

technical and administrative support to the National Science

61
Foundation, Office of Energy R&D Policy. A study entitled, The

Economic and Social Costs of the Coal and Nuclear ElecT-iTc

Generation: A Framework for Assessment and Illustrative

Calculations for the Coal and Nulear Fuel Cycles, presented by

members of the Stanford Research Institute provided some input

and served as a basis for the discussions of the workshop. The

agenda was planned to summarize the risks arising from the various elements of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles to assess the

economic and environmental consequences associated with electrical generation. The following papers are summarized:

Decision Analysis Methodology to Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cycles

Routine Risks and Social Cost of Coal

Climate Modification Risk

Reactor Accident Risks

Nuclear Risks and Accident Sensitivities

Reactor Accidents and Consequences

Diversion and Sabotage

Release Mechanisms of Fuel Reprocessing Plants

Transportation Accidents and Safeguards

Risk Comparison of Recovery U.S. Reactor Plants

Nuclear Waste Management: Problems and Prospects

Nuclear Waste Disposal

File #64

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Risk Assessment and the Social Response to Nuclear Power

Otway, H.J.

Project Leader, Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project International

Atomic Energy Agency

Journal of the British Nuclear Energy Society, Volume 16, No. 4,

October 1977.

7 pages, 2 tables, 2 figures

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

A general theoretical framework for risk assessment studies is

pre-sented. Methodologies from various disciplines can be used

within this framework to allow a scientific approach to the

understanding of complex interactions between technological and

social systems. A pilot application of an attitude-formation

model to examine the underlying determinants of groups for and

against nuclear power is summarized.

File #65

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Risk-Benefit Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Siting

Miettiner, J., Savolainen, I., Silvennoiner, P., Torino, E.,

Vuor, S.

62
Affiliation: Technical Research Center of Finland

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Annals of Nuclear Energy, Volume 3 (11/12), 1976

12 pages, 11 tables, 7 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

An assessment scheme is described for the risk benefit analyses

of nuclear power versus conventional alternatives. Given the

siting parameters for the proposed nuclear plant, an economic

comparison is made with the most advantageous competitive conventional production scenario. The economic benefit is determined from the differential discounted annual energy procurement cost as a function of the real interest rate and amortization time. The risk analysis encompasses the following factors:

radiation risks in normal operation, reactor accident hazards

and economic risks, atmospheric pollutants from the conventional

power plants, and fuel transportation. The hazards are first

considered in terms of probabilistic dose distributions. In the

second stage risk components are converted to a form where excess mortality is used as the risk indicator.

To apply the general approaches, calculations are performed for

the power production alternatives of Helsinki where district

heat would be extracted from the nuclear power plant. At an

interest rate of 10% and amortization time of 20 years the

1000-MW(e) nuclear option is found to be $9.1m per year more economical than the optimal conventional scenario. Simultaneously

the nuclear alternative is estimated to reduce excess expected

mortality by 2 to 5 fatal injuries annually.

File #19

Ti tle: Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety

Author(s) :

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

International Atomic Energy Agency

Proceedings of a Symposium on Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 5-9, 1973.

45 papers, 650 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Symposium for the exchange of information on recent developments

in nuclear reactor safety. Forty papers are presented, edited

by the IAEA, in which the major topics are Philosophy of Safety

Design, Quality Assurance and Reliability, Safety Evaluation

Methods for P ower Reactor, Design for Natural and Man-Induced

Disasters, Siting Consideration for Power Reactors, Standards

and Criteria for Design and Construction of Power Reactors, Design Safety Features, Safety in Operation, HTGCR Safety.

63
File #66

Ti t1 e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Repo rt/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Usefulness of Alternative Integrative Assessment Methodologies

in Public Decision Making

Erickson, L.E., Litchfield, J.W., Currie, J.W., McDonald, C.L.,

Adams, R.C.

Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories

PNL-RAP-24 UC-11, July 1978

45 pages

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data no

This paper argues for more frequent use of formal integrative

assessments in public decision making. Integrating assessment

values for all of the impacts of competing alternatives to a

particular event in common units so that they can be more readily compared to identify the preferred alternatives is stressed by this paper.

Aspects of integrative assessment methodologies are discussed

and the steps necessary to the performance of integrative assessments are outlined. This paper compares the two major

integrative assessment methodologies, benefit cost analysis and

multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aides.

The key difference between these approaches is that in benefitcost analysis all consequences are values in dollars while in

multi-attribute utility analysis they are valued in units called

utils, which are specific to the analysis. Thus, the most important factor influencing the selection of benefit-cost or

multi-attribute utility analysis to perform an integrative assessment is whether one believes that all consequences to be

included in the analysis can be adequately valued in dollar

terms.

Most of the paper focuses on the different approaches which

benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis have taken to

the estimation of the values of the consequences of decision

alternatives in common units. The intention 'in doing this is to

provide the information necessary to decide whether benefit-cost

or multi-attribute utility analysis should be selected in any

particular instance.

This paper discusses various aspects of the following questions:

(1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the

overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits? (2) If

an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for

selecting a method? (3) Is it possible to use one of the

available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment?

64
File #73

Title:

Author(s):

Affil i ation:

Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

On a Rational Basis for Designing for Safety and Operability

G.S. Lellouche

Electric Power Research Institute

October 11, 1979

13 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

The author describes some of the perceived reasons behind the

inefficiency of the current NRC designing-for-safety philosophy

and for the failure of the single-failure criterion as applied.

The author goes on to state that even if the licensing issued

are more closely related to socio-political-bureaucratic aspects

of life than to the scientific basis on which they should be

founded, it seems appropriate to improve the latter. He states

that risk assessment should be mandated and implemented in the

hope of rationalizing the licensing process. Examines the

limitation, needs, and obstacles of such a process and concludes

that what is needed is a means of interpreting whether the risk

due to a specific accident or class of accidents are important

enough to warrant consideration. Proposes decision criteria for

risk acceptability, (see Table 1 of this report).

File #74

Title: Risk in Hydroelectricity Production

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

H. Inhaber

Atomic Energy Control Board, Ontario, Canada

Energy Volume 3, pages 769-778, 1978

9 pages, 8 tables, 2 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

As in any energy system, hydroelectricity can present risks to

workers and to the public. When "risk accounting," or the summing of the risk to human health from the entire energy cycle,

is used, the result from this method showed that hydroelectricity has fairly substantial values. (The sources of risk considered were construction, operation and maintenance, transportation and dam failures, with the risk values being occupational man-days lost per megawatt year net energy.) It

ranks fourth lowest in a selected group of 11 energy technologies, whose order is as follows: natural gas, nuclear, ocean thermal, hydroelectricity, solar space heating, solar thermal

electric, solar photovoltaic, wind, methanol, oil and coal. About half the risk in hydroelectricity generation is due to

material acquisition and construction.

65
File #89

Ti tl e: Risk Management Decision Rules for LWRs

Author (s):

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

M. Griesmayer

Presentation to ACRS PRA Subcommittee meeting on April 30, Risk

Management Framework for LWRs - Source A.K. Bhattacharyya, IEEE

Committee WG 5.4, meeting May 30, 1980.

9 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes.

Viewgraph presentation to the ACRS PRA subcommittee on risk management framework for LWRs. Outlines the aims, features,

problems, and considerations necessary in risk decision making,

in addition to the features, certification, and maintenance of a

safety profile. Then goes into the basic premises and rules

necessary in a criterion, followed by stating his particular

hazard limits, (see Table 1 of this report.)

File #67

Ti tl e: Risks Associated with Nuclear Power

Author(s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

National Academy of Sciences

Nuclear Safety, Volume 20, No. 6, November-December 1979

7 pages, 1 table, 1 figure

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The report from which this article is adopted is a critical review of the literature pertaining to the risk associated with

nuclear power. This article presents highlights from the "summary and synthesis" chapter. Concludes that nuclear power

risks, to which the present report is devoted, pertain to only

one square in the matrix of kinds of information needed for decision making on energy programs. Even for electrical energy,

one must decide among a number of alternative technologies or

sources for producing it, and for each of these, one must estimate its benefits, costs, time scale, and risks; one must also

bear in mind the costs and risks of not producing it.

File #68

Title: Comparative Risk - Cost - Benefit Study of Alternative Sources

of Electrical Energy

Author(s)/

Affiliation: Adapted by the National Science Information Staff

66
Report/Date: Nuclear Safety, Volume 17, No. 2, March-April 1976.

Contents:

Abstract:

13 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

This study quantifies, normalizes, and compiles conventional and

societal costs associated with the production of electrical energy by currently available alternative systems based on coal,

gas, nuclear fuels, and hydroenergy. Particular emphasis is

placed on examining each energy system in its entirety, both the

power plant and its supporting fuel cycle. The study is restricted to routine impacts, (health, safety, environmental degradation, etc.), including routine accidents whose frequencies

can be established from historical data. From the available

data, which are thoroughly referenced herein, it is concluded

that natural gas incurs minimal environmental and human impact

costs but remaining supplies are small; oil presents considerably greater environmental and human impacts but substantially

less than those from coal, which is both the most serious environmental offender and the most abundant domestic fuel source.

Nuclear fuels, which are abundant, have somewhat less environmental and human impacts than gas. The conventional fuel costs

of coal and nuclear fuel cycles are found to be comparable and

considerably less expensive than gas or oil, the author concludes saying that it appears that the cost of abatement and

health and safety measures will significantly increase the cost

of energy from coal over that from nuclear fuel.

File #85

Title: Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria

Author(s):

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

D. Johnson and W. Kastenburg

From A.K. Bhattacharyya, meeting of IEEE WG 5.4 on May 15, 1980

6 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

Slide presentation to ACRS PRA Subcommittee meeting on April 30

on application of risk acceptance criteria. Probability vs

fatalities are shown primarily for Indian Point, Zion, and

WASH-1400.

File #75

Title: Safety Design Criteria and Operating Experience

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

J.J.. Herbst and F.R. Hubbard

Nuclear Power Systems, Combustion Engineering, Inc.

Presented at the Fourth National Conference on Energy and the

Environment, October 7, 1976.

67
Contents:

Abstract:

11 pages, 5 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

Shows that a quantitative definition of a probability and

criteria categorization matrix can be developed within the present regulatory requirements. Concludes that plant operating experience and the application of existing methodology should be

factored into the regulatory process. This permits, in the

author's viewpoint, a formal and consistent method for matching

criteria with event probabilities in an equal risk per event approach which suggests a rational limit to the NRC licensing escalation process.

File #76

Ti tl e: The Role of Reliability in the LMFBR Industry

Author(s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

J.R. Penland, TVA; A.M. Smith, GE; and D.K. Goeser, GE.

Presented at the International Conference on Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment held in Gatlinburg,

Tennessee, June 20-24, 1977.

20 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The authors' position is that the mission of a reliability

program for an LMFBR should be to enhance the design and operational characteristics relative to safety and to plant availability. Successful accomplishment of this mission requires

proper integration of several reliability engineering tasks

(analysis, testing, parts controls, and program controls). Such

integration requires, in turn, that the program be structured,

planned, and managed. This paper describes the technical integration necessary and the management activities required to

achieve mission success for LMFBRs.

File #76

Titl e:

Author (s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment

edited by J.B. Fussell, University Tennessee and G.R. Burdick,

EG&G Idaho, Inc.

International Conference on Nuclear Systems Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment, held June 20-24 1977 at Gatlinburg,

Tennessee.

34 presentations, 850 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

68
Abstract: The objective of the conference was to update the latest information concerning theory as well as applications of reliability

and risk of nuclear systems. Thirty-four papers are presented

on the following topics: Policy and Social Aspects, Evaluations

and Applications, Common Cause Failure Analysis, Methodology,

Reliability Approaches and Programs, Automated Logic Model Construction.

File #77

Titl e:

Author (s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Probabilistic Analysis of Accidental Transients in Nuclear Power

Plants

J. Amesz, G. Volta, CEC, Joint Research Center, 21020 Ispra

(Varese), Italy, and S. Garribba, CESNEF, Nuclear Engineering

Dept. Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Presented at the International Conference on Nuclear Systems Reliability, Engineering and Risk Assessment held at Gatlinburg

Tennessee, June 20-24 (97)

15 pages, 7 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The aim of this work is to establish a theoretical frame for

computing probability distribution of loads and residual

strength in the primary cooling system of nuclear power reactors. Random point processes are presented in order to

provide a general framework for describing operational and accidental load transients. Once failure modes have been ascertained and a failure hypothesis has been established, strength

appears represented by a filtered process and reliability can

be in principle computed.

Information concerned with failures and performance characteristics of components allows us to infer the statistical structure

of the random processes. The case is displayed where advantage

is taken of all information which is available prior to the design. The case is then considered where use is made of additional data obtained through operation practice of the system.

File #78

Ti tl e:

Author (s):

Affiliation:

Safety Criteria Applied in the Design of the Polish Test Reactor

'Maria' and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Proposed Containment System

C. Nycz

Institute of Nuclear Research, Swierk,'Poland

69
Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Presented at the International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium on

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 1973.

8 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables.

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

In the early design stage of the Polish high flux test reactor

(30 MW), the evaluation of the possible sequences of accidents

was performed and the maximum credible accident chosen. The

failure of the pressure loop in the core followed by the SPERTtype nuclear excursion and rupture of the remaining pressure

loops in the core appeared to be the most dangerous sequence of

the credible accidents. For this case, the time-dependence of

the pressure buildup in the containment and the activity release

to the environment was evaluated, taking into account the ventilation system characteristics and the semi-tightness of the concrete containment building. The influence of the safety system

parameters which are most important from the standpoint of the

exposure in the reactor environment, such as the filter efficiency, the tightness and shielding effectiveness of the containment walls and the stack height, was evaluated and compared

in order to meet the safety criteria and to obtain the equivalence of the potential exposures from all sources of irradiation.

File #90

Title:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Policy Statement on Use of PRA in the Regulatory Process

E.D. O'Donnell

Policy Statements East Coast AIF

Atomic Industrial Forum, Committee on Reactor Safety and Licensing Policy Statement on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

in the Regulatory Process, April 4, 1980.

11 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

Policy statement of the Atomic Industrial Forum on Probabilistic

Risk Assessment (PRA) is presented. Basic principles expressed

are: (1) probabilistic analysis-should support, not supplant, deterministic requirements; (2) probabilistic analysis should be

used as the basis for setting generic requirements, not as a

condition for licensing of individual plants; (3) PRA should be

adopted as the basis for addition to or for departures from applicable deterministic licensing requirements; (4) quantitative

safety goals or risk criteria must be established for PRA based

decision making; and (5) a common methodology must be established for performance of PRA analysis. Specific applications

of the five general recommendations applied to the regulatory

process are then discussed, (see Table 1 of this report for

criteria).

. 70
File #79

Ti tl e: Standards and Criteria in Use or Being Developed for Reactor

Safety

Author(s): R.B. Minogue

Affiliation: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission

Report/Date: Presented at the International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium on

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 1973.

Contents:

Abstract:

21 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The importance of standards, criteria, and codes for achieving

safe, dependable, and economic nuclear power has been recognized

by the nuclear industry and the regulatory agencies of the United States of America for a long time. This paper describes the

current nuclear standards program of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and its role in promulgating these standards for the design, construction, and operation of nuclear facilities. AEC

regulations relating to radioactivity releases are historically

traced from their inception to presently proposed modifications.

Other regulations such as the general design criteria, the quality assurance criteria, and the seismic and geologic siting criteria for nuclear power plants are also described, as well as

proposed regulations and rule changes currently in preparation.

Since 1970, the AEC has issued safety guides for water-cooled

nuclear reactors which are used to aid nuclear power plant applicants and licensees in complying with the general requirements and guidance provided in the Code of Federal Regulations.

Many of these guides are in the area of quality assurance,

where much more detailed guidance is needed and many standards

are now being developed. Quality assurance program requirements

for the design, construction, and operation phases of nuclear

power plants are presented, and present and future standards

efforts in this area are described. Guides are also presented

which describe good practices to be used to assure that structures, systems, and components important to safety are designed,

fabricated, erected, and tested to adequate quality standards.

Also described are guides which specify acceptable analytical

methods and assumptions for evaluating various postulated accidents and guides which identify the information that is needed

to evaluate applications for construction and operation of

nuclear power plants.

File #80

Title: Recommended Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Merchant Ships

Author (s)/

Affiliation: R.W. Dickinson, Babcock and Wilcox Co., and Z. Levine, Office of

Maritime Technology, U.S. Department of Commerce

71
Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Presentation at the International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium

on Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 1973.

24 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no.

Existing -regulations of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission provide that an application for a construction permit must include

the principle design criteria for a proposed nuclear facility.

The principal design criteria establish the necessary design,

fabrication, construction, testing, and performance requirements

for structures, systems, and components important to safety.

General design criteria have evolved in recent years for use i'n

the design of central station nuclear electric generating

plants. The need for analogous design criteria for nuclearpowered merchant ships has been recognized. Recommended design

'criteria for nuclear ships have been developed under an ongoing

program sponsored by the U.S. Maritime Administration and have

been submitted to appropriate regulatory groups in the U.S.

The criteria, although they have no official sanction, do establish recommendations for minimum design requirements for the

principal design criteria for water-cooled nuclear power plants

to be used in merchant ship propulsion. Wherever practicable,

these propulsion plants are similar in design to land-based

plants for which construction permits have already been issued

by the AEC. The Recommended General Design Criteria for nuclear

powered merchant ships have been based on the USAEC's General

Design Criteria and accepted practice for safe design and operation of nuclear merchant ships. This paper reviews the recommended criteria for nuclear ships with emphasis on those areas

where the nuclear propulsion plant is uniquely different from

its land-based counterpart. In addition, the authors point out

the need for international acceptance of general design

criteria.

File #93

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Possible Forms for Top Level Criteria

M. Temme

Affiliation: General Electric Corp. Sunnyvale California

Report/Date: Presented at the IEEE WG 5.4 meeting on May 15, 1980

Contents:

Abstract:

1 page

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Outlines attributes of risk criteria; eleven separate points are

presented: 1) acute fatalities (a) sensitive to biological effects model, (b) negative connotation; 2) latent fatalities (a)

sensitive to biological effects model, (b) not observable; 3)

probability distribution of ground and/or air release from con72
tainments; 5) probability distribution of release from site; 6)

probability of extensive core damage; 7) man-rem; 8) totality of

plant release and/or risk is the measurable: not individual

sequences; 9) there may (will) exist an acceptable as well as an

unacceptable level or limit; 10) (a) totality is compared to unacceptable limit, (b) individual sequence compared to acceptability limit, (c) horse and trade; 11) authenticity (uncertainty in risk assessment) must be included.

File #94

T i tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Attributes of Risk Criteria

R.E. Jaquith

Combustion Engineering

Report/Date: Presented IEEE WG 5.4 meeting of May 15,.1980

Contents:

Abstract:.

5 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Presented are the pros and cons of numerical criteria. Addressed are fatalities, economics, probability, frequency parameters (top level and non-inclusive), and comparative criteria.

File #69

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

The Application of Risk Allocation to Reactor Siting and Design

H. Otway

Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory

LA-4316, UC-41 Health and Safety and UC-80, Reactor Technology

TLD-4500, June 1970.

28 pages, 12 figures, 8 tables, 3 appendices

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Individual mortality riskf is proposed as a basis for assessing reactor safety. The method evaluates reduction of risk

by safe-guards, and determines radii of exclusion from sites.

Accidents are divided into two categories: random independent

failures of systems, and "site-induced" accidents, such as

earthquakes, that destroy operation of more than one system

simultaneously. Fission-product release vs accident probability

is determined for both types of accident in a typical 1000-MW(e)

pressurized water reactor.

Calculations from medical data indicate mortality risks of 1 x

10-6 per person per rad from thyroid irradiation, assuming a

73
1-rad threshold, and 30 x 10-6 per person per rad from wholebody irradiation, with a 100 mrad threshold. Total individual

mortality risk per year is determined by applying these dose and

risk criteria to the fission-product release curve, and integrating. From the author's viewpoint, societal risk acceptance

indicates 10-7 as an acceptable yearly death risk to the

nearest resident continuously exposed to a nuclear plant. This

risk is calculated to occur at the boundary of a 350 meterradius site of a 1000-MW(e) pressurized water reactor. Calculated risk from reactivity accidents is insignificant compared

to that from loss-of-coolant accidents, indicating an imbalance

in safeguard design. Earthquake risk is the most significant

unknown.

The mortality risk concept (neglecting earthquake risk) indicates that 1000 MWe thermal reactor siting need be restricted

only by the physical size of the facility.

File #98

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Secretary's Report of the Third Meeting of IEEE WG 5.4

A.K. Bhattacharyya

National Safety Analysis Center

Meeting notes of IEEE WG 5.4, May 30, 1980

15 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

A review is made by R. Paddleford on probabilistic risk assessment in licensing and the role of numerical safety goals. In

addition to risk criteria development, scope of application is

formulated and commented on by attendees. Twenty-one separate

papers were presented.

File #97

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

On the Selection of Risk Criteria

V.B. Parr, B.M. Tashjian

Southwest Research Institute

May 13, 1980

4 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

74
Abstract: The authors state that the risk analysis method of forming

criteria vary in complexity from the "cost of saving a life" to

"design reliability" with multiattribute utility function, effects (fatalities, injuries) risk budget and acceptable

probability of accident sequence all falling within these two.

In addition, criteria should be valid for present and future

plants, including complete nuclear cycle, but excluding property

damage. Discusses risk attributes, early and latent fatalities

as seen by the public, and property damage in a facility and

cost of replacing power by utility.

File #95

Title: A Proposed National Nuclear Safety Goal

Author(s):

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

E.L. Zebroski

Presented at the Seventh Energy Technology Conference in Washington, D.C., March 24-26, 1980.

9 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

The author states that several implications of the four major

government studies of the Three Mile Island accident are not

sustained by the industry studies. He states that the safety

record is unparalleled by almost any other human activity,

either in energy production, transportation, or industry generally.

Nevertheless, the occurrence of the event is significant and the

industry has taken the main "lessons learned" very seriously and

has implemented, or is committed to, actions which will make another accident involving core damage as severe as the TMI accident highly unlikely in this century in the U.S. He then

elaborates on a practical safety goal, a perspective on core

melt-downs, and a proposed national nuclear safety goal. He

proposes that: (1) reactor design, operation, and regulation

should ensure that accidents which reach the stage of core melting have a probable frequency of no more than one such occurrence in 30 years, taking into account the actual population of

civilian reactors in operation in the U.S.; (2) reactor safety

systems and containments shall be maintained and operated so

that even if core meltdown were to occur, there would be less

than one chance in 1,000 that a radiation release leading to a

dose of 1 R or more to any member of the public will result.

File #81

Ti tl e: Development of Adequate Risk Standards

Author(s): F.R. Farmer

75
Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Safety and Reliability Directorate, United Kingdom Atomic Energy

Authority

Presented at the International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium on

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 1973.

7 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The author states that there have been many studies, from WASH

740 onwards, of the effect of releasing to the atmosphere various fractions of fission products. This paper does not set out

to exaggerate or over-emphasize the effect of nuclear accidents,

but outlines the likely consequences of releasing 10% of gas and

volatile fission products under average weather conditions. An

argument is developed leading to a proposition that the riskPc

of such an event occurring at any time, anywhere, from the reactors now being built or commissioned in this decade should be

less than 1 in 10, and preferably 1 in 100. This may be translatgd as a risk from any one reactor, in any year, of less than

10- . Formulating an objective of this kindhelps clear our

minds about the degree of confidence we need to have technology

of nuclear power engineering. Having as our clear aim the

achievement of such a definitive low risk, we may see more

clearly the gaps in our defenses left by present organizational

arrangements, and we may reasonably question whether our capabilities - both to engineer and to organize - are good enough.

File #23

Title:

Author(s) :

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Assessment of Acceptable Risk (using nuclear waste as an example)

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements

A preliminary statement of the study group on acceptable risk

(nuclear waste), November 14, 1979

50 pages, 5 tables

Criteria yes methodology no, Data yes

This statement gives the preliminary views of a group established by the NCRP to study risk assessment, using as a model

the hazards posed by the radioactive wastes that result from

generating electricity by nuclear power, and having the principal goal of indicating how the public may participate with confidence in the assessment of the risks of nuclear waste and of

controlling, handling, and isolating it. Basic elements of the

problem are identified and some of them are briefly discussed.

76
File #70

Titl e: Areas of Uncertainty in Estimates of Health Risks

Author(s):

Affil i ati on:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

L.D. Hamilton

Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division, National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems, Brookhaven National LaboratoryPresented at Symposium on Energy and Human Health: Human Costs

of Electric Power Generation, sponsored by University of Pittsburgh and Ohio River Basis Energy Study, Pittsburgh, March

19-21, 1979.

70 pages, 15 figures, 8 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

This paper is concerned with several currently prominent uncertainties in estimating health risksg from electric power

generation: (1) health effects of air pollution, especially acid

sulfates and respirable particulates; and (2) low-level radiation effects. With these uncertainties in mind, state-of-theart current assessments of various fuel cycles on a unit plant

basis are given and a method is outlined for using these results

in national or regional energy assessment.

File #21

Titl e: Approaches to Acceptable Risk (Draft)

Author(s)/

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

B. Fischhoff, S. Lichtenstein, P. Slovic; Decision Research

S. Derby, Stanford University, R. Keeney, Woodward-Clyde

Consultants, San Francisco, California

Preliminary draft of report to the NRC, Winter 1980

309 pages, 20 tables, 14 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

Deciding "How Safe isSafe Enough?" is a stumbling block in the

management of many technological hazards. This report provides

an analysis of acceptable risk decisions and the ability of various approaches to cope with the risks. It attempts to do this

by: (a) characterizing the essential features of acceptable risk

problems that make them so hard to manage, (b) offering a taxonomy of decision-making methods, each identified by its ability

to address the features of acceptable risk problems, (c) specifying the objectives that an approach should satisfy in order to

guide social policy, and (d) rating the success of the approaches in meeting these objectives. Although no solution to

acceptable risk problems is advanced, recommendations are made

for how society might better address these problems in practice,

and through research.

77
File #92

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil i ation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Decision Criteria for the Selection of Risk Criteria

M. -Temme

General Electric Corporation, Sunnyvale, California

Presented at the IEEE, WG 5.4 meeting of May 15, 1980

4 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Outlines the decision criteria for the selection of a risk criteria; 29 separate points are discussed. Some highlights of the

outline are as follows: criteria should be definitive, address

risk, be quantitative, allow flexibility in design, consider

operating and committed plants, consider cost-benefit, address

normal vs operating risk, consider population and site location,

be addressed in relative and martinal risk, consider risk comparisons, consider perceptions of risk, and address uncertainties.

File #82

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iati on:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Disasters as a Necessary Part of Benefit-Cost Analyses

R.K. Mark, D.E. Stuart-Alexander

Branch of Western Environmental Geology at the U.S. Geological

Survey

Science Volume 197, September 16, 1977

3 pages

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not

included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability

disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes,

and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of

events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that

the probability of a reservoir-triggered earthquake increases

with increasing reservoir depth. The author's contention is

that because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project specific, estimates should be made

for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "highrisk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project

benefits.

78
File #96

Ti tl e: Determining Acceptable Risk

Author(s): C. Starr, C. Whipple

Affiliation: Electric Power Research Institute

Report/Date: Presented at the American Association for the Advancement of

Science meeting on Risk in the Technological Society, San

Francisco, California, January 7, 1980

Contents: 36 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Abstract: The author's viewpoint is that it is important to explore the

subject of risk assessment and acceptability in order to assist

the public process of decision making.

In Part I the concept of acceptable risk is considered, and contrasts the principal methods of judging the balance among risk,

benefit, and the costs of risk reduction are contrasted. Analytical approaches are reviewed, encompassing decision analysis

and cost-benefit analysis (also referred to as risk-benefit analysis), and the intuitive or subjective approach. The importance of individual intuitive judgments of risk acceptability on

the social acceptance of specific risks is then considered. The

available information about subjective judgments of risk, benefit, and the trade offs between them are briefly discussed and

the degree to which the important factors in these decisions, as

well as the decision processes themselves, are considered. In

Part II a much narrower question is considered: Can acceptable

risk be defined by numerical criteria for allowable levels of

risk for specific technologies? This section describes the

incentives to develop and implement numerical criteria of this

type, as well as the problems which the authors think would arise with their use.

File #84

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

A Possible Standard of Risk for Large Accidental Releases

J.R. Beattie, G.f. Bell

Safety and Reliability Directorate, UKAEA

Presented at the International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium on

Principles and Standards of Reactor Safety, February 1973.

16 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

79
Abstract: The author's position is that everything which is reasonable

should be done in the design, construction, and operation of

nuclear reactors to ensure that accidental releases of radioactive fission products cannot occur. Nevertheless, even when all

such measures have been taken, there will remain a residue of

faults which in combination could lead to releases of radioactive fission products having significant adverse effects on the

safety of the public, although the probability of occurrence of

such releases will be very small. The nature and probabilities

of these accidental events are predicted in this paper for a

range of releases mainly of gaseous and volatile fission

products. Taking into account the probabilities of the events,

one is led to consider rates of loss of life and of loss of

property, and both of these may be regarded as monetary loss per

unit time if desired.

File #71

Title: What Others Think (Will the Past Be Prologue?)

Author (s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

A. VanHorn, R. Wilson

Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Harvard University

Public Utilities Fort Nightly, February, 1977

3 pages, 1 table

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The past health effects (fatalities) of fossil fuel and nuclear

electricity generation are examined, primarily for the years

1967 through 1976 in which there was a total nuclear contribution of. 750 x 106 megawatt-hours. Alternative means of

production are substituted for this power. Estimates are then

drawn showing U.S. fatalities from this substitute generation.

The additional deaths which would have resulted in the U.S. from

replacing nuclear power by fossil fuel electricity generation up

to December 1976 is in the range of 1,900 to 27,500 deaths and a

little more than twice that world wide.

File #72

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Assessment of Energy Parks vs. Dispersed Electric Power Generating Facilities

General Electric Company

Center for Energy Systems, Washington, D.C.

Submitted to the National Science Foundation, May 9, 1979

80
Contents:

Abstract:

96 pages, 1 appendix

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Paper describes the approach which the General Electric Company

proposes to take in analyzing the advantages and disadvantages

of energy parks. A brief discussion is given of the advantages

and disadvantages of such a park. Major areas considered are

site, size, cost-effectiveness and barriers.

File #87

Ti tl e: What ATWS Risk Would be Cause for Concern?

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

I. Wall

Electric Power Research Institute

Presented to the ACRS ATWS - Subcommittee from A.K. Bhattacharyya, IEEE Committee WG 5.4, May 30, 1980

4 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

The author strongly supports the idea of a acceptable risk

criteria. He suggests a tentative guideline in the range of <

10- 4 /r-y for significant cladding degradation such as TMI-2-.

In addition, concomitant probabilities for serious release would

be equivalent to: return period for TMI-2 events > 30 to 60

years, expected accidental population dose <0.05/r-y; probability of one latent cancer fatali <10- 4 /r-y, probability of

early death at site boundary <10-/r-y; risk for nuclear fuel

cycle would be much less than that from fuel cycles for alternative sources; Anticipated Transients Without Scram goals of

<10- 5 /r-y of causing significant cladding degradation, require

Value impact analysis for all accident sequences whose probability is greater than 10% of above guidelines, for older plants,

make some allowance for plant size, lower population and remaining useful life.

File #91

Ti tl e: AIF Position Statement on Quantitative Safety Goals

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Atomic Industrial Forum

Policy Statement West Coast AIF

Atomic Industrial Forum Committee on Reactor Safety and Licensing, West Coast Policy Statement on the Use of Probabilistic

Risk Assessment in the Regulatory Process, April 4, 1980

81
Contents:

Abstract:

1 page

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

This paper gives the AIF endorsement of the concept of a

quantitative safety goal for central station nuclear power

plants. This safety goal should be chosen to assure (1) that

the number of disruptions in the life of residents in the vicinity nuclear power plants is low and (2) that nuclear power generation is as safe as alternative means used to generate electrical power and as safe as practical. AIF proposes the following quantitative safety goals: (1) frequency of serious core

damage should be lower than 10- 4 per reactor year; (2) average

number of public fatalities attributable to the operation of

nuclear power plants in the U.S. (exclusive of the fuel cycle)

should be lower than 0.1 per year per 1000 MW(e) for latent

fatalities and .01 per year per 1000 MW(e) for acute fatalities.

File #123

Ti tl e: Use of PRA in Evaluation Safety of Nuclear Power

Author (s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

V. Joksimovic - General Atomic Company; W.E. Vesely - Nuclear

Regulatory Commission

Reliability Engineering, An International Journal, Volume 1, No.

1 July-September 1980

9 pages, 1 figure

Criteria no, Methodlogy yes, Data no

This paper offers an overview of uses and limitations of

probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques in evaluating

safety of nuclear power in the U.S. as seen and experienced by

the authors. It discusses subjects like PRA contributions to

the defense-in-depth philosophy adopted in the U.S. many years

ago for licensing nuclear power plants, needs to expand its

present role, present pitfalls, the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident sequence, retrospective and prospective safety improvements, quantitative safety goals and the nuclear fuel cycle.

File #110

Title:

Author(s):

Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Role of Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Regulatory Process

S. Levine

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Nuclear Safety, Vol. 9, No. 5, September-October 1978

9 pages, 2 tables, 2 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

82
Abstract: The author's viewpoint is that the judicious application of

risk-assessment techniques can help to reduce regulatory uncertainties, and the acceptability of such techniques is gaining

support. Although the application of these techniques, in the

manner of Report WASH-1400 (the Reactor Safety Study), to each

plant would be formidable, a probabilistic approach can guide

the decision makers concerned with the licensing process. Several examples of the use of a probabilistic approach are given.

The risk-assessment tools will be improved under a plan submitted to Congress to improve reactor safety. The question of acceptable risk criteria will be addressed in the ongoing Nuclear

Regulatory Commission (NRC) research program. It is expected

that the continued use of risk-assessment techniques will help

to improve the efficiency and the stabilization of the regulatory process by focusing the attention of the NRC staff on the

important contributors to risk.

File #113

Title: Radioactive Releases from Nuclear Installations

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

R. H. Clarke, H. F. MacDonald

Berkeley Nuclear Laboratory, Gloucestershire, England

Progress of Nuclear Energy, Volume 2, No. 2, 1978

73 pages, 31 tables, 42 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

In this paper a description is given of the methods available

which can be used to study the consequences of reactor releases.

This paper considers the various stages in the pathway from irradiated nuclear fuel to man as separate modules, in each of

which mathematical models are derived to represent the transfer

of radioactivity. There is then a detailed treatment of the behavior of the effluent in the atmosphere including effective

height of release, building entrainment, meteorological dispersion, mechanisms for ground deposition, and the effects of

the duration of release. Finally, applications of the methods

are described in reanalyzing the 1957 Windscale accident and in

the planning of procedures for reactor accident monitoring as

well as in the implications of future reactor designs to assessments of accidental releases. A brief summary of the reactor siting criteria adopted in the United Kingdom and in the

United States is also given as a background against which to review the predictive techniques and results from the range of

studies of accidents considered.

83
File #108

Titl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstrect:

Nuclear Power: The Answer That Became a Question, an Assessment

of Accident Risks

B. Sorensen

University of Copenhagen

Ambio Volume 8, No. 1, 1979

8 pages, 9 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Some of the problems and uncertainties in evaluating the probability of a significant fission reactor accident and the damage

that could follow such an accident are discussed, using as a

basis recent American and Scandinavian studies. The problem

areas discussed are accident considerations, probability evaluations, damage evaluations, risk assssment, etc. It is concluded

that the upper risk limit implied by present knowledge is disturbingly high. As a result, the viewpoint is presented that

societies having or building nuclear reactors must include the

possibility of catastrophic accidents very directly into their

planning, and they must obtain social acceptance of the associated risk interval.

File #102

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Cost-Benefit Comparison of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Health and

Safety Protective Measures and Regulations

E.D. O'Donnell, J. J. Mauro

Ebasco Service, Inc.

Nuclear Safety, Volume 20, No. 5, September-October 1979

15 pages, 8 tables, 3 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

This article compares the costs and benefits of health and

safety measures and regulations in the nuclear and nonnuclear

fields. A cost-benefit methodology for nuclear safety concerns

is presented and applied to existing nuclear plant engineered

safety features. Comparisons in terms of investment costs to

reduce mortality rates are then made between nuclear plant

safety features and the protective measures and regulations associated with nonnuclear risks, particularly with coal-fired

power plants. The paper's position is that comparisons reveal a

marked inconsistency in the cost effectiveness of health and

safety policy, in which nuclear regulatory policy requires much

greater investments to reduce the risk of public mortality than

84
is required in nonnuclear areas where reductions in mortality

rates could be achieved at much lower cost. A specific example

is presented to show regulatory disparity regarding gaseous effluent limits for nuclear and fossil fuel power plants.

File #103

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil i.ation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

.Abstract:

Potential Radiation Dose to Man from Recycle of Metals Reclaimed

from a Decommissioned Nuclear Power Plant

F.R. O'Donnell, S.J. Cotter, D.C. Kocher, E.L. Etnier,

A.P. Watson

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, Department of Energy

ORNL/NUREE/TM-215

131 pages, 66 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

A generic methodology is presented for estimating potential

radiation doses to man from recycling radioactively contaminated

scrap metals reclaimed from decommissioned nuclear facilities.

The heart of the methodology is a set of tables of radionuclidespecific, radiation-dose factors that may be used to estimate

doses to individuals and population groups from recycling any

radioactively contaminated scrap metal. The dose factors are

based on detailed radiological assessments of several options

for recycling scrap metals. Assessments were made for each of

27 nuclides which might contaminate metals recovered from a

decommissioned nuclear power plant. Each assessment was of a

reference quantity of scrap metal that was assumed to contain a

reference level of a potentially contaminative radionuclide.

The radiological assessments are described, and the dose factors

in assessments of many recyclable metals, for estimating

critical-organ doses from the given dose factors that were

derived for total-body exposures, and for ranking the radionuclides considered according to their relative potential for

delivering radiation doses to man.

File #118

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Af fil i ation:

Report/Date:

-Contents:

On Risk Assessment in the Absence of Complete Data

W. L. Kastenberg, T. C. McKone, D. Okrient

UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science

UCLA-ENG-7677, July, 1976

42 pages, 4 figures, 12 tables

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

85
Abstract: A major problem in assessing risks in advanced systems is that:

(1) all the potential consequences are not known or anticipated;

and (2) even when risks are anticipated there is uncertainty in

-the data. Several mathematical risk-assessment theories are

summarized in this report, and their deficiencies in the absence

of-complete data are discussed. The mathematical basis of risk

assessment is considered, and the basic problems of moving from

a discrete to a continuous consequence-frequency distribution

are discussed. The application of these concepts to waste disposal and storage of high level radioactive waste, risk to

ground populations due to airline crashes, and nuclear power

plant risks are reviewed and discussed.

File #100

Titl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Environmental Impact of Radioactive Releases from Accidents in

Nuclear Power Reactors

J.R. Beattie, R.F. Griffiths, G. 0. Kaiser, G. H. Kinchin

United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority

June, 1978

60 pages, 7 tables, 20 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

A survey of accidental releases of radioactivity from thermal

and fast reactors is presented. Following a general discussion

on the hazards involved, the nature of the environmental impact

of radioactive releases is examined. This includes a brief review of the natural radiation background, the effect on human

health of various levels of radiation and radioactivity, permissible and reference levels, and the types of hazards from both

passing clouds of airborne radioactive material and grounddeposited material. The problem of atmospheric dispersion and

methods of calculating radioactive materials in the atmosphere

are examined in order for the consequences of accidental release

to be analysed. National accidents and their environmental consequences are then examined. Finally, there is a review of the

risks to which man is always exposed because of his environment.

Common and collective risks are also considered. Conclusions

are reached as to the acceptability or otherwise of the environmental impact of reactor accidents.

File #101

Ti tl e: Criteria for Risk Acceptance: A Health Physicist's View

Author(s): A. P. Hull

86
Affil iation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Brookhaven National Laboratory

CONF-770409-8 April 24, 1977

4 pages, 2 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data yes

The author presents the following picture and viewpoint. A controversy over the safety of nuclear energy has grown in the U.S.

since about 1970 and has now spread to near worldwide proportions. This controversy has been fueled by a variety of issues.

Initially, in the U.S., the most prominent issue concerned the

degree of hazard of low-level radiation, in particular that

associated with the nuclear fuel cycle. Since then, attention

has shifted successively to the reliability of emergency core

cooling systems, the longevity of nuclear wastes, the possible

misuse of radioactivity by terrorists, and the potential for

diversion of nuclear-power-produced plutonium to weapons fabrication. Underlying each of these issues has been the implication that the employment of nuclear power will entail an unacceptable risk to the public. If comparison is made to the level

of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and

tornados, a reaspnable perspective in this regard is a yearly

risk of 1 x 10-0. Following a satisfactory demonstration of

the safety of nuclear energy, it is hoped that the nuclear argument can be terminated. Society could then move on to the real

issues affecting energy, population, and quality of life.

File #106

Titl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

A Method for Risk Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents

M. Maekawa, N.C. Rasmussen, W.E. Vesely

M.I.T., Cambridge Department of Nuclear Engineering, N.R.C.

MITNE/NUREG-205 January 1978

243 pages, numerous tables and figures

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data no

A method is developed for deriving a set of equations relating

the public risk in potential nuclear reactor accidents to the

basic variables, such as population distributions and radioactive releases, which determine the consequences of the accidents. The equations can be used to determine the risk for

different values of the basic variables without the need of complex computer programs and can be used to determine the variable

values which are needed to satisfy various risk criteria. The

methodology development in the study involves fitting risk distribution of frequency versus consequence to parametric distribution and then relating the distribution -parameters to the

basic variable of interest using regression techniques. The

87
Weibull distribution was found to be appropriate for the early

fatalities distributions for hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes,

dam failures and nuclear reactor accidents. A set of equations

is then derived which relate the population distribution and the

parameters of the Weibull distribution for early fatalities from

PWR accidents.

File #105

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affil iati on:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

The Approach to (Nuclear Reactor) Safety Philosophy

A. Birkhofer

Managing Director, Gesellschaft Fier Reaktorsicherheit (GRS)

Nuclear Engineering International, (GB) Volume 23, No. 279

December 1978

2 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

The author's position is that the efficiency of engineered safeguards is checked by accident analyses. Redundancy and physical

separation are key concepts to obtain the required system reliability. Safety regulations are being codified to make them more

predictable, probabilistic methods are being applied to quantify

the safety of nuclear power plants, and quantitative risk

assessment is influencing both safety assessment and research

on safety.

File #116

Ti tl e: Risk Analysis of the Fuel Cycle in the Netherlands

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

R. W. Van Otterloo, N. V. Kema

IAEA

Nuclear Power and Its Fuel Cycle, Salzburg, Austria, May 2-13,

1977

12 pages, 5 tables, 2 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The risk analysis of the fuel cycle has been made by order of

the Minister of Economic Affairs and has been prepared by

personnel of the interested parties. The analysis is based on a

total output capacity of nuclear power stations of approximately

3500 MW(E). The risks of all the phases of the fuel cycle have

been assessed as far as this is or will be applied in the near

future within our frontiers, together with normal operation of

the power plants and the risk of radioactive releases. The

88
predominant risk of the fuel cycle is the risk caused by a core

melt in a nuclear power plant. The risk a nalysis of the two existing power stations Borssele and Dodewaard' has -been applied

analogous to WASH-1400. The reliability analysis method (fault

trees and event trees) and the computer codes and failure data

were applied as far as this was justifiable. The risk caused by

a core melt of the three new 1000 MW(e) plants has been assessed

by using WASH-1400 results (figures from Peach Bottom (BWR) and

Surry (PWR) about probability and releases) in Dutch circumstances. A conclusion that can be drawn from this study is that

the risks for the Dutch population from' an installed nuclear

capacity of 3500 MW(e) are determined by the nuclear power stations. The risks resulting from secondary activities, such as

fuel enrichment, fuel fabrication,, transport and waste treatment

are small as compared with those from the nuclear power plants

and are, moreover, in many cases more easily influenced by technical measures and/or regulations.

File #115

Ti tl e: Criteria.for Radioactive Waste - A Time for Reason

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

E. N. Cramer, T.L. Grebel

Transactions of the American Nuclear'Society

25th Annual Meeting of the American Nuclear, Society, Atlanta,

Georgia, June 3-7, 1979

1 page, 1 figure

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

This paper discusses issues involving radioactive wast criteria.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposes criteria for

disposal of all forms of radioactive waste. The Natural Resources Defense Counsel (NRDC) proposes alternative criteria.

The papers posturize that the final EPA criteria should make

risks from this disposal comparable to the risks from disposal

of other hazardous materials; the criteria should be developed

independent of the-origin of the waste and should also consider

relative toxicity. Strict interpretation of the EPA-NRDC criteria of zero risk to future generations, which rejects all

benefits, could preclude use of all energy forms including

solar, wind, coal, geothermal, 'natural gas, as well as nuclear;

conceivably, energy conservation activities could be precluded

and disposal costs for trivial sources of radiation exposure

could be greatly increased.

File #109

Ti tl e: The Assessment of Risk: Its Value and Limitations (Nuclear

Installations)

89
Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstracts:

Dunster, H.J., Vinck, W.

Health and Safety Executive, London, England

Nuclear Engineering International (G.B.) Volume 24, No. 289,

August 1979

3 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

-It is the author's viewpoint that quantitative risk assessments

may, in the short term, make public acceptance of certain nucle-,

ar installations more difficult to achieve. The authors believe

that in the long term, however, such assessments will encourage

public acceptance. Industry should do more to defend its own

safety standards, while avoiding brash over-confidence.

File #114

Ti tl e: Is Solar Power Riskier Than Nuclear?

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Inhaber, H.

Atomic Energy Control Board, Ontario, Canada

Transaction of the American Nuclear Society, Winter Meeting,

November 12-16, 1978.

2 pages, I figure

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

A study that evaluates the risk, both occupational and public,

of 11 different energy systems is summarized. For the first

time a comparison, man-days lost, is made between nonconventional technologies - like solar, wind, and methanol - and

conventional. technologies - like coal, oil, and nuclear power.

The total energy or fuel cycle, rather than just one small part,

was evaluated, accounting for some of the following results. The

calculated risk, man-days lost, per net energy output is as follows: Natural gas is lowest, at about 6 man-days lost per

megawatt-year, followed by nuclear power, with about 10. Nonconventional technologies have substanitally higher risks, with

the lowest in this group being ocean thermal at 30 man-days

lost, and the highest being methanol at about 1300. Solar space

heating, which has attracted widespread attention in the last

few years, results in about 110 man-days lost. Highest overall

is coal and oil, each with about 2000 man-days lost per

megawatt-year. A preliminary analysis indicates that hydroelectricity probably would rank fourth lowest, behind natural

gas and nuclear.

90
File #107

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Low-Level Radiation, A Review of Current Estimates of Hazards to

Human Populations

Myers, D.K.

Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Chalk River, Ontario

AECL-5745, December 1977

52 pages, 13 tables, 8 figures

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The author's viewpoint is that the internationally accepted estimates of risks suggest that the numbers of cancers and genetic

defects induced in the general population by natural background

radiation are not more than about 1% of the numbers of cancers

and genetic defects normally present in the general population.

The added risks to the general public due to any prospective

nuclear power program are minute compared to those from background radiation. At the maximum permissible levels of radiation exposures for occupational workers, the predicted number of

induced genetic defects is small (-2 % of natural incidence),

while the predicted number of fatal cancers induced would reduce

the average lifespan from 73.0 years to about 72.7 years. Since

occupational exposures are usually much less than maximum permissible levels, the risks are correspondingly reduced. These

occupational risks are comparable to those in most other industries and occupations. Some areas of uncertainty in the accepted risk estimates are discussed in detail.

File #104

Ti tl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Medical Aspects of Power Generation, Present and Future

Linnemann, R.E.

University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine

Medical Research Engineering Volume 13, No. 1, August 1979

5 pages, 3 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The author presents information which shows that the radiation

emissions of nuclear power plants are small indeed, compared to

natural background radiation and other man-made sources of

radiation. For example, it is shown that the population is exposed to 100 times more radiation from television sets than from

nuclear power reactors. The assumed risksf to the people in

the USA from nuclear power reactors are also small compared to

the normal risks which are tolerated in this society. The

author's position is that the complete elimination of all

hazards is a most difficult if not impossible task.

91
File #112

Titl e:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Nuclear Power as a Public Issue, Protection of the Public

Interest

J.M. Doderlein

Institute for Atomenergi, Kjeller, Norway

International Atomic Energy Agency Bulletin (Austria), Volume

20, No. 1, February 1978.

8 pages, 2 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

Discusses the desired role of nuclear power in the overall

perspective of the role of energy in society. Topics include

technological risk as a factor in public acceptance; the nuclear

controversy, some comments; the philosophical and societal background; public interest and the professional; systematic technology evaluation; the place of facts in a world of values.

File #111

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Occupational Doses in the Ontario Hydro Nuclear Power Program

R. Wilson

Radioactivity Management and Environmental Protection Department, Nuclear Generation Division, Ontario Hydro, Ontario,

Canada

Health Physics, (GB) Volume 33, No. 3, September 1977.

6 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

The average doses received by Ontario Hydro Nuclear Station

workers of various categories have been extracted from the

computer-based dose record system. Extrapolations of the data

have predicted average lifetime doses for the highest exposed

categories of workers in the range 43 to 114 rem. The estimate

depends pends on the data base selected for extrapolation. The

total riske facing a worker in any industry is comprised of

two components: the risk from a chronic insult and the riskf

from an accident with immediate effects. The total risk facing

radiation workers in the Ontario Hydro Nuclear Program is compared with the total risk as far as it is known facing workers

in some other industries. On this basis, nuclear power station

work is comparable to the average risk in North American industry.

92
File #117

Title:

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Recent Developments in Training of the Emergency Organization at

SSPB's Nuclear Power Stations in Sweden.

S. Ekholm

Nuclear Safety Division, Swedish State Power Board, Vollingby.

Sweden.

Handling of Radiation Accidents, Vienna, Austria, February

28-March 4, 1977.

5 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology no, Data no

This paper presents information on the emergency organization at

Swedish State Power Board in Sweden. The emergency organization

is concerned with the safety of plant, personnel, and district

under the joint management of the nuclear power station and the

county administration. The training program includes two films

about nuclear risks during normal operation and emergency conýditions including, evacuation, which are shown at the nuclear

sites to all workers and to the general public. There is also a

special instruction film for the emergency organization, a 150-

page lecture book used in conjunction with a 1 to 3 day basic

course, and two check-list manuals, one for station personnel,

and one for county administration bodies. Before stations are

permitted to produce power, a full-scale emergency exercise must

be carried out with press and TV coverage. Within two years, a

cheap iodine monitor and a computer producing a printout with

isodose curves will be added to the emergency research program.

The program satisfies Swedish regulations and current American

requirements, and an English translation of the training package

is available.

File #122

Titl e: A Feasibility Study of the Application of Numerical Risk

Criteria-in the Licensing of Nuclear Power Plants in the United

States

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

S.P. Mitra, A. Coppola, B. Miller; R. Hall

Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton N.Y. 11973

Working Draft, October 1980

183 pages

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

93
Abstract: This report describes the interim results of a continuing investigation on the feasibility of developing and using a set of

probalistic risk criteria to aid in judging the safety of nuclear power plants. Brookhaven National Laboatory (BNL) performed the investigation for the Methodology and Data Branch of

the Division of Systems Reliability Research in the Nuclear

Regulatory Commission. The principal aim of the report was to

critically review and examine the implications and ramifications

of the different proposals for numerical risk critria from a

unified viewpoint. The report did not address the general approaches and issues involved in risk acceptability.

File #121

Title: Risk Comparison

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

A. Coppola, R. Hall

Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y. 11973

January, 1981

80 Pages, 16 tables, 21 fig. es

Criteria no, Methodology no, Data yes

This report presents data for the comparison of societal risk

from natural and man-made hazards. Only fatalities resulting

from the hazards are used in the comparison, with the data and

the comparative analysis taken from current literature. In comparing societal risks for most of the hazards, both expected

values and frequency vs consequence curves are presented. For

a subset of hazards, notably the power generation technologies

(nuclear, coal, oil and gas), which have not exhibited high consequence events (catastrophes), the comparisons are based on estimated expected values only.

Individual risk data are presented in two ways, a probability of

death within a year or the amount of life shortening of an average life span. Wherever possible the authors have attempted to

extract the individual risk from the data presented in the references. The authors state that the important variable which

must be consistent for comparison is the estimate of the population at risk, which has ben reproduced from a given reference

or is estimated by the authors and is clearly indicated throughout the report.

File #124

Titl e: Sensitivity of Risk Parameters to Human Errors in Reactor Safety

Study for a PWR

Author(s): P.K. Samanta, A.L. Swoboda, R. Hall

94
Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

Brookhaven National Laboratory,-Upton, N.Y. 11973

NUREG 1879/BNL-NUREG 51322 December 1980

57 pages, 4 appendices

Criteria no, Methodology yes, Data yes

The study provides quantitative evaluation of the impact of human errors in the risk from nuclear power plants by measuring

the sensitivities of various risk parameters. Sensitivities of

the risk parameters - emergency safety system unavailabilities,

accident sequence probabilities, core melt probability and release category probabilities, were investigated for changes in

the unavailability contributions of the human errors (referred

to as human error rates) within the general methodological

framework of Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance to core

melt probability. It was found that the opportunity for reduction in core melt probability by reducing the human error rates

without simultaneous reduction of hardware failures is limited,

but core melt probability showed significant increase due to

increase in human error rates. More importantly, most of the

dominant accident sequences showed significant increase in their

probabilities and many of the emergency safety systems --. containment spray injection system, auxiliary feedwater system,,

high pressure recirculation system, low pressure recirculation

system and low pressure injection system, showed large sensitivity to human errors. Also, release categories resulting in high

consequences showed much larger sensitivity to human errors comparted to categories resulting in low consequences.

File #120

Title: TMI and the Future of Reactor Safety

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

S. Levine

NUS Corporation

Presented at an International Public Affairs Workshop, Atomic

Industrial Forum, Inc., June 16, 1980

12 pages, 4 figures

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data no

The author states that since the basic framework of our approach

to reactor safety already contains qualitative probability

judgements, there can be little question in anyone's mind that

we would be better off by being more quantitative. The quantitative technique, too new and uncodified for actual use as a

part of the formal reactor licensing process, should be used the

95
same way as the current qualitative judgements have been used,

that is to help decide what should or should not be used in the

licensing process. Continuing, the author feels that with the

growing emphasis on the application of PRA techniques to judge

the-safety adequacy of plants or various aspects of plants, it

is clear that quantitative criteria for acceptable levels of

risk, or safety goals, are needed if the benefits of these techniques are to be realized.

The author felt that while further exploration and understanding

of Class 9 accidents should be done because it will enhance the

overall understanding of the safety of nuclear power plants, it

would be unwise at this time to extend the licensing process to

consider accidents more severe than currently defined design

basis accidents. These DBA's represent the culmination of a

long series of carefully considered steps and should not lightly

be changed. Furthermore, many studies both in the U.S. and

Europe have shown that the use of these DBA's has resulted in

the establishment of sets of engineered safety systems for LWR's

that have significant capability to mitigate the consequences of

more severe accidents. The study of severe accidents should be

used to provide greater assurance that these systems have the

performance characteristics necessary to ensure their successful

operation in reducing the consequences of severe accidents

rather than to extend the definition of DBA's to encompass these

more severe accidents.

File #22

Ti tl e: Siting Criteria - A New Approach

Author(s):

Affiliation:

Paper:

Report/Date:

Contents:

Abstract:

F. R. Farmer

UKAEA, Authority Health and Safety Branch

Presented to IAEA Symposium on Containment and Siting of Nuclear

Power Reactor held in Vienna, April 3-7, 1967

SM-89/34, 1967

24 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables

Criteria yes, Methodology yes, Data yes

Assess the spectrum of risk in a quantitative-related manner. A

method of reactor siting is described which takes into account

the probability of occurrence of an event and the consequences

associated with that event. In addition, the analysis involves

establishment of failure-rate data for components and/or engineering systems. The author shows how this may affect the choice of sites for nuclear power plants. The author, in proposing

probabilistic analysis be employed in reactor safety assessment,

suggests that the safety criterion of less than 0.01 premature

deaths per reactor year be adopted. In addition, he proposed

96
that a risk acceptance limit line be used to judge the acceptability of the estimated occurrence frequency for any particular

accident. The severity of the accident was measured by the

release in curies of iodine-131, one of the volatile fission

products of greatest importance in thermal reactor accidents.

97
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors wish to express their gratitude to Dr. William Vesely of

the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for initiating and assisting in the development of this document.

In addition, the authors wish to acknowledge the support of Ms. C. Green

and Ms. H. Todosow of the Reactor Safety Library at Brookhaven National Laboratory for assisting in the compilation of the numerous articles requested.

'U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1981-0-341-744/716

98
NRC IOnM 335 1. REPORT NUMBER (Assigned by DDC)

(7.77) U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET NUREG/CR-1 930

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE (Add Volume No., if appropriate) 2. (Leave blank)

Index of Risk Exposure and Risk Acceptance Criteria 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.

7. AUTHORIS) 5. DATE REPORT COMPLETED

-B. Miller -and R. E. Hall- MONTH j YEAR

January 1981

9. PERFORMINQ ORGANIZATION NAME AND MAILING ADDRESS (Include Zip Code) DATE REPORT ISSUED

MONTH I YEAR Risk Assessment and Engineering Analysis Group February 1981

Department of Nuclear Energy 6. (Leave blank)

Brookhaven National Laboratory

Upton, New York 11973 8. (Leave blank)

12. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND MAILING ADDRESS (Include Zip Code) 10. PROJECT/TASK/WORK UNIT NO.

Methodology and Data Branch

DSRR/Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 11. CONTRACT NO.

1130-SS

Washington, D.C. 20555 NRC FIN No. A3222

13. TYPE OF REPORT PERIOD COVERED (Inclusive dates)

Technical I 0-1-79 - 1/15/81

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. (Leave blank).

16. ABSTRACT (200 words or lessl

This report contains abstracts of articles which address various aspects

of quantitative risk analysis, covering the subjects of numerical risk

criteria, methodology and data. The articles were published primarily

from 1976 to date in technical journals, reports, papers, etc. The articles

selected for this report were judged .to have relevance to nuclear power

plant risk evaluations and to the possible establishment of the acceptability

(or unacceptability) of calculated nuclear power plant risks.. A matrix

of the various risk criteria proposed is presented.

17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS 17a.- DESCRIPTORS

Risk Criteria Reliability

Consequences Exposure

Hazards

Accidents

17b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN-ENDED TERMS

18. AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 19. SECURITY CLASS (This report) 0. OF PAGES

20. SECURITY CLASS (This page) 22. PRICE

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