AIR UNIVERSITY

AIR WAR COLLEGE

Remote Sensing and Mass Migration 

Policy Development

MARY D. DYSART

DAFC

Air War College

Maxwell Paper No. 65

Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama

October 2012
2

Disclaimer

Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are 

solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Air 

University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other 

US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited.

The Maxwell Papers are available electronically at the Air 

University Press website at http://aupress.au.af.mil.
3

Remote Sensing and Mass Migration Policy Development

Mary D. Dysart, DAFC

Mass migration is a global problem that affects displaced persons, 

their countries of origin, and the nations that voluntarily or involuntarily 

receive them. The 2010 US National Security Strategy recognized the 

domestic and international perils that refugees and the underlying 

causes for their dislocation represent and acknowledged that future 

conflicts caused by scarce resources, environmental disasters, or 

refugees were possible.1

In his congressional testimony regarding the 2010 Threat 

Assessment, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair expressed 

concern about the prospect of mass migration from Cuba or Haiti to the 

United States. He also warned that population movements caused by 

climate change could have a negative impact in India, China, Southeast 

Asia, and Europe within 20 years, resulting in broad national security 

consequences for the United States.2 The National Reconnaissance Office 

(NRO) stands as one of the first lines of defense against these potential 

catastrophes. It develops, acquires, and operates US satellite systems 

that conduct space reconnaissance by collecting the imagery intelligence, 

signals intelligence, and measurement and signature intelligence 

required by its customers, including those in both Department of 

Defense (DOD) and non-DOD US government agencies.3 NRO thus fulfills 

critical requirements necessary for the formulation of national strategy. 
4

Its national sensor systems provide the means to gather information 

beyond that required for military operations.4

The 2000 congressionally-chartered National Commission for the 

Review of the National Reconnaissance Office recommended the NRO 

“focus on innovation” to preclude intelligence failures that “have a direct 

influence on strategic choices facing the nation.”5

Causes of Internal and International Migration

The NRO should 

therefore initiate procedures to identify and measure triggers for mass 

human migration and proactively participate in interagency forums 

developing policy pertaining to such events. The NRO may thus promote 

the attainment of US national security objectives by guiding the 

development of policy regarding mass migration, thereby enhancing its 

critical role in supporting the success of the National Security Strategy. 

An examination of the causes of mass migration and its effects, using the 

examples of water resources, agricultural conditions, disease, and 

climate change, demonstrates how remotely measurable factors may 

foreshadow large-scale human migration and shows that the NRO should 

use its findings to inform policy to prevent or mitigate such movements.

People may freely choose to move from place to place, or they may 

relocate in response to duress. Voluntary migrations take place because 

people become dissatisfied with their present location. Push factors 

inducing these migrations motivate citizens to abandon their customary 

residences for another locale. Such influences might include:
5

• armed conflicts

• natural disasters

• discrimination based on religion, politics, or ethnicity

• inability to earn a living wage

• depletion of natural resources

• war

• climate change

• famine

• population pressure on arable land

• disease

• pollution

• human rights abuses, or

• economic considerations.

Voluntary migration may also occur as a result of pull factors 

providing people with positive reasons to relocate, including seeking a 

place with a more favorable religious or political climate, a lack of racial 

discrimination, improved job or educational opportunities, or a more 

agreeable physical environment. They might also look for a region 

possessing cultural or linguistic ties with the state from which they 

intended to emigrate.6 Involuntary migrations occur when populations 

are coerced to relocate, and like voluntary relocations, they may 

comprise internal and international population movements.
6

Globalization has contributed to mass migration. International 

finance and trade promote the mobility of people, ideas, and technology 

among and within states. While it has led to prosperity in many regions, 

globalization has resulted in a concentration of wealth in the North7

while the developing nations of the South8

Sarah Collinson, a fellow at the United Kingdom’s Overseas 

Development Institute, contended that a number of states have recently 

collaborated to limit and place restrictions on cross border movements. 

The North became less willing to accept immigrants or asylum-seekers, 

perceived as ignoring legal entry policies, undermining national identify, 

or taking jobs from local workers.

remain poor. The political, 

economic, and social interrelationships that have come into being as a 

result of globalization have also affected the worldwide system where the 

movement of migrants takes place.

9 Sociologist Susanne Schmeidl 

contended that state interest could prevent United Nations (UN) member 

nations from taking action to prevent mass migrations as they did during 

the 1994 Rwanda genocide. She further maintained that the concepts of

“safe zones”10 and the “right to remain”11 could serve as means of 

preventing refugees from entering asylum states.12

A shift of industrial production to the South caused migration from 

rural areas to cities and in some cases led to the abandonment of 

traditional agriculture. Those unable to find jobs in urban areas forsook 

their homelands and sought employment in other countries, forming a 
7

base on which a continued flow of migrants built. Such a loss of 

residents brought changes to the country of emigration, often including 

an exodus of educated or professional citizens that left the home country 

with a larger percentage of unskilled workers. In the country of 

immigration, new ideas transmitted by migrants precipitated political, 

cultural, and social changes.13

Some nations have chosen to adopt policies fomenting mass 

migration to achieve a strategic effect: “coercion predicated on the 

international creation, manipulation, and exploitation of migration and 

refugee crises.”14 Prof. Kelly M. Greenhill argued that since the adoption 

of the UN’s 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, coerced 

migration has been initiated on at least 56 occasions and possibly on 

another eight; in more than half of those cases, the state precipitating

those population movements obtained its strategic goal.15 She 

maintained that the asymmetric strategy threatens civilian populations 

with “demographic bombs” that could disrupt their nation’s economic 

and social fabric.16

For example, on three occasions Cuban president Fidel Castro 

used the threat of mass Cuban immigration into the United States to 

gain his strategic objective of controlling the flow of Cuban refugees to 

the United States: the opening of the port of Camarioca in September 

Among the 64 instances cited, the United States 

alone or in conjunction with other nations or international institutions 

was targeted 23 times.
8

1965, the 1980 Mariel boatlift, and Castro’s August 1994 decision to 

suspend arrests of those who attempted to flee to the United States by 

boat. The Mariel boatlift, which resulted in over 100,000 Cubans 

entering America, ended only after the United States agreed to discuss 

immigration in conjunction with other issues regarding Cuba. In the 

other two cases, the United States and Cuba reached new accords on 

immigration regulations.17

Effects of Mass Migration on Societies

Mass migrations have a profound impact on both the people in 

transit and the host population. In examining such migrations brought 

about by environmental change, one should consider how the availability 

of natural resources affects mobility decisions, the agricultural 

considerations entailed in large-scale population shifts, and the frictions 

that arise between people prior to and as a result of mass relocations.

The UN Population Fund’s State of the World Population 2010

reported that more than 40 million people were currently displaced either 

internally or living as refugees in other countries, with internally 

displaced persons outnumbering refugees. John Holmes, UN undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief 

coordinator, described them as “‘disoriented, traumatized, confused, 

fearful, disempowered, dependent, helpless.’”18

For example, more than 2.6 million persons were displaced within 

Iraq and another 1.9 million had fled to other countries. A sense of 
9

community was lacking among Iraqis who had fled to Jordan, Iraqi 

children were sometimes bullied in the schools, and sexual and genderbased violence existed within refugee communities. Since Jordan had not 

signed the UN’s 1951 Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of 

Refugees, refugees there were “guests” who were not permitted to hold 

jobs, a state of affairs that placed them in precarious financial 

circumstances. Of the estimated half million Iraqi refugees in Jordan, 

only 30,000 had registered with the UN Human Rights Commission 

(UNHRC), and approximately 12,000 of that number were receiving 

financial aid. Many Iraqi refugees with the wherewithal moved on to 

other countries, leaving an increasingly poor refugee population 

remaining in Jordan. Women and girls were particularly at risk due to 

their susceptibility to exploitation and violence, a fact that adversely 

affected the health and well-being of children dependent upon them.19

Displaced persons within Iraq were vulnerable to being targeted 

because of their religious beliefs, identification with political parties or 

tribes, and cooperation with US or Iraqi forces. Those who had no family 

or friends to move in with were relegated to public facilities or to camps 

operated by the Iraqi Red Crescent Society or the Ministry of 

Displacement and Migration. They experienced shortages of the basic 

necessities of life and placed a huge burden on the communities in which 

they were sheltered. Iraqi refugees faced the prospect of remaining in a 

status similar to Palestinian refugees who have been marginalized for 
10

years. They were subject to social isolation, and many Iraqi refugee 

children were not attending school.20

In early 2009 internally displaced persons in Afghanistan 

numbered approximately 231,000, another 278,000 former refugees had 

returned home, and about 3 million Afghan refugees remained in other 

countries.21 The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that 

more than five million refugees had returned to Afghanistan since 2002,

taxing the country’s resources and intensifying the need for basic 

necessities like food, water, shelter, transportation, and a means of 

earning a living. Many of the returnees owned no property in their native 

country. Children were at risk of being forced into child labor, human 

trafficking, smuggling, and marriage at an early age. Reintegration into 

Afghan society remained difficult for those who may have spent years in 

Pakistan or Iran and returned in a condition of abject poverty.22

As of 1 January 2008, Afghanistan and Iraq were the two top 

countries of origin for refugees, together being the source of 43 percent of 

the total number from the top 10 countries.

These 

problems were exacerbated by continuing hostilities in Afghanistan. 

23 The difficulties 

encountered by refugees and displaced persons from these two nations 

were typical of those experienced by their counterparts around the world. 

States targeted by mass migrants, therefore, faced a variety of social and 

political problems, not the least of which was a commitment for 
11

resources of an unknown magnitude necessary to provide for the 

migrants’ basic human needs for an indeterminate amount of time.

In the post-9/11 world, states were also concerned that terrorists 

might seek to enter their borders along with refugees. As of December 

2008, 147 countries had signed either the UN’s 1951 Refugee Convention

or its 1967 Protocol, which mandated that refugees not be returned to 

regions where threats to their lives or freedom existed. The UN therefore 

proposed three solutions for refugees: voluntary repatriation, local 

integration, and resettlement. Those unwilling to return to their country 

of origin, however, found few nations willing to accept them.24

International Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons

The UN has defined an international migrant as “any person who 

changes his or her country of usual residence” voluntarily or 

involuntarily.25 A 1992 UN report identified internally displaced 

individuals as “‘persons who have been forced to flee their homes 

suddenly or unexpectedly in large numbers, as a result of armed conflict, 

internal strife, systematic violations of human rights or natural or manmade disasters, and who are within the territory of their own country.’”26

The Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) cited “economic hardship; 

social, religious and ethnic instability; rapid population growth; political 

repression; the threat or use of force; environmental disasters; and threat 

of starvation, and internal migration” as direct and indirect causes of the 

mass migration of humans.27 Maintaining that it was often difficult to 
12

determine whether a particular person’s reasons for migration were 

voluntary or involuntary, the IPU acknowledged the profound “social, 

economic, administrative, political and national costs” of mass 

migrations for both the losing and gaining nations.28 Year after year, the 

number of involuntarily displaced persons continues to rise. By the end 

of 2004, the total population of concern as calculated by the UNHCR

reached 19.2 million. That number included 9.2 million refugees, with 

the remainder being comprised of asylum seekers, returned refugees, 

internally displaced persons (IDP), returned IDPs, stateless persons, and 

various other persons of concern. IDPs alone totaled in excess of 5.4 

million.29 By the end of 2009, the worldwide total had reached 36.5 

million, with 15.6 million of that number being IDPs.30

In order to minimize the negative consequences of large-scale 

migrations, the United States should develop an effective early warning 

system to prevent or mitigate mass population movements. The first step 

in accomplishing this is to identify the factors that provoke such 

migrations. In 1989 Lance Clark of the Refugee Policy Group developed a 

model for early warning of forced migration, identifying its underlying 

causes, the immediate provocation for movement, intervening factors 

that increased or decreased the likelihood of compulsory relocation, and 

the stimulus that initiated the actual migration. Writing in 1995, 

Susanne Schmeidl introduced a quantitative element to Clark’s model. 

She maintained that the root causes of forced migrations were 
13

circumstances existing over long periods of time, such as religious 

differences, border disputes, ecological problems, or poor governance. 

She held that proximate causes for migration exacerbate preexisting 

factors, such as when government is unwilling or unable to address 

longstanding, divisive problems.31

• Coping strategies that might preclude international migration

She examined factors facilitating or 

complicating forced migration, including:

• Perceived or actual obstacles to international flight

• Presumed reception in target country

• Cultural precedents for decision making

• Seasonal considerations such as weather or agriculture.32

She agreed with other scholars’ conclusion that early warning should be 

accomplished by collecting data that indicated a forced migration might 

occur, analyzing it, building scenarios, determining possible responses, 

and transmitting the information to decision makers.33

Remotely Measurable Predictors of Mass Migration

Many indicators that mass migration is imminent or that it has 

begun are remotely measurable. Imagery obtained from satellites and 

manned and unmanned aerial reconnaissance systems provides evidence 

of large-scale human movement by noting changes in historical patterns 

of population distribution. It is also particularly useful in determining 

changes in environmental factors—especially those driven by climate 

change—that provide the impetus for mass migration. In the early 1980s, 
14

scientists realized that only remote sensing by satellites could provide 

overall measurement of gross primary production (GPP) and net primary 

production (NPP) on a global scale.34 Researchers recommended making 

GPP and NPP data about conditions within the biosphere available in a 

manner similar to the provision of weather reports. That information 

would provide the basis for determining the extent to which an area 

could support human life and in predicting desertification, deforestation, 

and the effects of wildfires, pollution, and climate change. The discovery

of deterioration in an ecosystem could indicate the need for changes in 

land management policies. Prof. Steven W. Running and others 

concluded that strategic planners could use long-term trends in NPP to 

measure regional declines in productive capability. For example, they 

noted that desertification in sub-Saharan Africa, long presumed to be 

due to overgrazing, in fact corresponded to precipitation levels. They 

concluded that only large scale remote sensing could measure changes in 

vegetation on a regional level and pointed to the value of remotely 

observing and predicting the runoff of water, which is rapidly becoming 

the most limited natural resource. Running and his research team 

emphasized the utility of NPP data in land management, the formulation 

of environmental policy, and tracking changes in the biosphere.35 Earth 

observation by satellites can detect potential threats to human security 

that may spark mass migration such as stressed water resources, 

adverse agricultural conditions, disease, and climate change. 
15

Water Resources

As the world’s population swells and the global mean surface 

temperature increases,36 the supply of clean, safe water continues to 

diminish. When temperatures rise, less water is stored in glaciers and 

snow packs, which currently comprise 68.6 percent of the earth’s total 

supply of fresh water and supply water for one-sixth of the world’s 

population.37 Bloomberg reported in 2006 that “the lack of usable water 

worldwide has made it more valuable than oil,” since its World Water 

Index of 11 utilities had returned 35 percent per year since 2003 while 

oil and gas stocks yielded only 29 percent.38 The American College of 

Environmental Lawyers reported in January 2010 that the Bloomberg 

World Water Index had continued to produce larger returns each year 

than either gas and oil stocks or the Standard & Poor’s Index.39

Bloomberg also noted that the UN had predicted that by 2050, water 

deficits would affect in excess of 2 billion people in 48 nations. It further 

observed that China, which is home to 20 percent of the world’s 

population, has access to only 7 percent of its fresh water supply and 

forecast that between 1995 and 2025, global use of fresh water for 

drinking, agriculture and industry could increase by 22 percent.40

Scientists use satellites to measure the amount of water in the 

Amazon River floodplain, enabling them to predict droughts and floods 

that may result from global climate change.41 A European Space Agency 

(ESA) project has helped Zambia manage its water shortages. Its 
16

multispectral medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) sensor 

on Envisat mapped existing water resources and vegetation in the Kafue 

River Basin and identified potential dam sites. A Science Daily press 

release noted that “IWAREMA [Integrated Water Resource Management 

for Zambia] was one of the projects initiated under ESA’s TIGER 

initiative, launched in 2002 employing space technology to assist African 

countries to overcome water-related problems and to bridge Africa’s 

water information gap using satellite data. To date, more than 100 

African water basin authorities, universities and other organizations have 

become involved in TIGER projects across the continent.”42

The Horn of Africa, an arid to semi-arid region, is subject to 

frequent droughts. Shortages of rainfall cause recurrent crop failures, 

which precipitate the starvation that promotes mass migration. 

Geostationary weather satellites collect data that may be used with 

geographical information systems (GIS) to monitor current conditions, 

identify seasonal trends, and predict rainfall, providing the ability to plan 

for and mitigate future drought events. In 1975 the UN Economic 

Commission for Africa chartered the Regional Centre for Mapping of 

Resources for Development, which cooperates with the National 

Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to initiate SERVIR, a 

satellite-based disaster early warning system for Africa that makes 

disaster information available over the Internet. Data from Meteosat 

second generation, a geostationary weather satellite, and SPOT, which 
17

provides data on vegetation, are available throughout Africa on free 

receiving stations provided by the European Union.43

Agricultural Conditions

Used together these 

systems can predict upcoming water crises in time to allow the initiation 

of policies and programs designed to ameliorate the effects of shrinking 

water resources.

The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro identified desertification 

as a significant environmental and social challenge for the future. The 

relentless progress of desertification adversely affects the world’s poorest 

people. Formerly arable land continues to decline in productivity due to 

loss of ground cover, erosion, and deterioration in soil quality. Areas

subject to desertification comprise 40 percent of the global land surface 

and support more than one billion people. The ESA sponsors 

DesertWatch, a satellite-based information service, to identify regions at 

risk for desertification in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Turkey, which 

together contain 30 million hectares of drylands that are home to 16.5 

million people. Desertification can be mitigated or reversed if high-risk 

areas can be identified in time. “Satellite images can highlight relevant 

land use change along with increased surface reflectivity, temperature, 

dryness, and dustiness. Infrared sensors can detect vegetation stress due 

to environmental shifts.”44 Once the at risk areas have been identified, 

measures to restore degraded lands and reduce the incidence of human-
18

caused droughts such as those taught at the Africa Centre for Holistic 

Management in Zimbabwe may be initiated.45

Commercially available satellite or aerial remote sensing 

technology can provide a wealth of information for agricultural

applications. Satellite Imaging Corporation, for example, provides 

“satellite imagery data at different spatial, spectral and temporal 

resolutions for agriculture and crop assessment, crop health, change 

detection, environmental analysis, irrigated landscape mapping, yield 

determination, and soils analysis.”46 The images it delivers “can show 

variations in organic matter and drainage patterns. Soils higher in 

organic matter can be differentiated from lighter sandier soil that has a 

lower organic matter content.”47 Satellites can monitor crop growth 

throughout the season, identifying problem areas such as weed 

infestations and assessing the effectiveness of watering.48

Disease

The 

widespread employment of such technology could optimize agricultural 

production, allay the effects of climates change, and reduce the risk of 

mass migration due to food shortages.

Remote sensing has broad applications in monitoring the spread of 

disease, providing early warning of health emergencies, and allowing for 

the application of preventative measures. For example, in 2008 malaria, 

a preventable disease, infected 247 million people, killing nearly 1

million. It is caused by parasites transmitted to people by the bite of an 
19

infected Anopheles mosquito. About half of the world’s population is in 

danger of contracting malaria, with most cases occurring in sub-Saharan 

Africa and fewer in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and some parts 

of Europe.49 Remote sensing may be used to determine concentrations of 

Anopheles mosquitoes in areas with a particular type of land cover. The 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteosat weather 

satellites have provided valuable data in correlating rainfall and the 

amount of green vegetation with the density of the mosquito population. 

Landsat has been used to determine the connection between vegetation 

characteristics and malaria transmission, and Landsat 1, 2, and SPOT 

provided data on flora, water plants, and land cover that are linked to the 

breeding environment for Anopheles. These studies merged “landscape 

ecology, vector biology, and human epidemiology, linking large-scale 

maps to individual risk in local human populations.”50 A 2005 study 

conducted in Thailand used Landsat5 thematic mapper to classify eight 

land cover types that corresponded with the mosquito life cycle. The 

researchers were able to build a statistical model that predicted 

Anopheles mosquito densities on varied land covers, allowing for 

targeting of mosquito eradication efforts.51

Remote sensing has been used extensively to provide early warning 

of disease. Cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh have been predicted by 

detecting coastal algae blooms containing Vibrio cholerae, which serves 

as a food source for zooplankton that are later consumed in drinking 
20

water.52 Forecasts using GPP data may be used to identify areas where 

infected mice might transmit hantavirus. Since the mouse population is 

directly correlated with the productivity of desert plants, satellite 

monitoring of the seasonal changes in vegetation can forewarn health 

officers of the spread of the mice into new areas.53 Remote sensing has 

further enabled tracking of climate conditions that are favorable to 

disease outbreaks and to predict occurrence of diseases in new areas due 

to climate change in time to initiate public health actions to assuage 

their impact.54

Scientists contend that the consequences of climate change on 

human health will be largely negative. It has already affected the 

transmission and geographic distribution of diseases such as malaria, 

dengue, diseases transmitted by ticks, cholera, and other diarrheal 

diseases. The proliferation of these diseases is exacerbated by human 

and animal migrations.55 Disease and health issues are numbered 

among the push factors for human migration. Data gathered by satellites 

and input into geographic information systems introduces a spatial 

perspective on disease and comprises a valuable tool for analysis in 

public health and epidemiology that can used to improve public health,

thus diminishing the impetus for mass migration due to disease.56

Climate Change

The 2010 National Security Strategy mandates a focus on building 

international relationships to combat the threat of climate change and 
21

warns that it can threaten the security of regions.57 London-based 

nongovernmental organization International Alert identified four primary 

risks associated with climate change: “political instability, economic 

weakness, food insecurity, and large-scale migration.”58 It concluded that 

impoverished countries, which often suffer from poor governance, would 

find it difficult to cope with climate change and that climate change 

would likely contribute to a rise in armed conflict. If food supplies were to 

become scarce, mass migrations would likely ensue, heightening the 

possibility of violent clashes with governments that fear large influxes of 

foreigners and attempt to forestall them with provocative policies. 

Migrants moving into areas that are only marginally productive would be 

most likely to be perceived as a liability to a struggling nation.59

International Alert has predicted that global migration as a result 

of climate change could affect 200 million people by 2050. Climate 

change may displace coastal populations living at or near sea level. 

Melting glaciers may affect the water supply for millions, droughts or 

floods may ensue, and desertification may take place. Diseases may 

spread, and growing seasons, crop yields, and agricultural zone 

characteristics may change. To cope with these problems, policies that 

address ways of adjusting to a new environment must be put in place.60

As climate change takes place, increasingly more precise 

predictions of climate variations are required. The recent increase in 

satellite data made available for use in computer modeling has improved 
22

forecasts, but the addition of more categories would increase their 

accuracy. For example, climate forecasts could be enhanced by increased 

data on soil moisture over large regions measured by satellite-based 

instruments. The ESA initiated its Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity 

mission in November 2009, and NASA plans to begin the Soil Moisture 

Active and Passive mission in 2014. The US National Research Council 

has call for proposed increased cooperation between US government 

agencies and universities to improve forecast quality and the creation of 

pubic archives to facilitate the review of past predictions for accuracy.61

Policy Recommendations

Despite its focus on designing and operating US reconnaissance 

satellites, given the profound effects that result from mass migrations, 

the NRO should take prompt action to identify the precursors of push 

factors. This may be accomplished by improving targeting, processing, 

exploitation, and dissemination of data related to mass migrations; 

establishing mechanisms to enable the provision of advance warning of 

impending disasters; and participating in the development of response 

plans, in coordination with social scientists who can assist in integrating 

remotely collected data with information acquired by conventional 

means.62 Satellite operating doctrine should be reexamined in regard to 

allocation considerations. Increased access should be provided to 

archived data to facilitate tracking change over time. During the Clinton 

administration, for example, the Central Intelligence Agency allowed 
23

civilian scientists to review archived materials to identify environmental 

problems, and the Medea Group, chartered by the National Intelligence 

Council in 1992, studied past satellite imagery to detect diseases in 

trees, track deforestation, and assess the condition of fisheries.63

The United States should continue cooperation with the UN’s early 

warning initiatives and technologies designed to monitor and identify 

dangers to the earth, water, and air. Sharing data from international 

scientific monitoring systems and enhancing training and 

communication networks can assist in reducing the incidence of mass 

migration in the event of a natural disaster.

Finally, 

the NRO should foster an internal climate that promotes innovation in 

the use of existing systems, the development of new ones, and their 

creative employment. 

64 At the same time, 

continued research into probable migration patterns will allow planners 

to identify the migrant populations and their likely destinations, enabling 

early intervention to identify potential problems and deconflict the 

process.65 The collection of information including specific indicators of 

impending large population movement; analysis of information by 

attaching meaning to the indicators, placing them into context, and 

recognizing crisis development; formulation of best and worst-case 

scenarios; creation of response options; and the communication of the 

result to decision makers are key steps in the process of effective early 

warning.66
24

In her study of coercive migrations, Greenhill put forward three 

policy options for preventing their occurrence. First, she suggested that 

policymakers study historical examples of such behavior in order to 

avoid the pitfalls other negotiators encountered. Second, she proposed 

that states vulnerable to such coercion institute a farsighted public 

policy, sponsor education and research, and offer liberal economic aid 

before the threatened migration begins to limit or prevent an influx of 

refugees. Finally, Greenhill recommended targeted states undertake 

actions within the threatening state to alter internal conditions or to 

bring about regime change.67

Conclusion

These measures are suitable for 

employment as preventives for impending mass migrations identified by 

analysis of data produced by remote sensing. By looking for early 

warning of factors that predispose populations to relocate in partnership 

with social scientists, the NRO may initiate timely policy discussions to 

identify the steps the United States should take to prevent internal or 

international population displacements.

In a new and evolving threat climate, assessing the impact of mass 

human migration and identifying where the next crisis will occur has 

assumed a new importance. Stress on water resources, degrading 

agricultural conditions, disease, and climate change are but four of the 

factors that initiate the mass population movements that adversely affect 

not only the migrants themselves but a globalized world. All nations are 
25

justifiably concerned about mass migration and its attendant concerns 

related to human smuggling and trafficking, terrorism, the costs of 

asylum, and the burdens refugees might impose on society. Like the four 

examples discussed above, many changes that presage mass migration

are detectable by earth observation, which provides the data necessary to 

identify problem areas and plan to diminish impending humanitarian 

crises. The implementation of sound policies formulated in anticipation 

of the relocation of large numbers of people will help mitigate its effects. 

The 2008 National Defense Strategy calls for the United States to assist 

at risk nations “to defend and govern themselves” by “addressing root 

causes of turmoil . . . [to] help states stabilize threatened areas.”68

Notes

Proactive planning to employ US assets across the broad spectrum of 

capabilities will answer this call and promote the achievement of US

national security objectives. The NRO should therefore broaden its 

knowledge base concerning the events that drive and proceed from mass 

migrations to ensure that national assets are used optimally to inform 

strategic decision making.

 

1. Barack Obama, National Security Strategy (Washington, DC: The 

White House, May 2010), 33–34, 55, 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_sec

urity_strategy.pdf.
26

 

2. Dennis C. Blair, director of national intelligence, “Annual Threat 

Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the House Permanent 

Select Committee on Intelligence,” 3 February 2010, 33–34, 39–40, 

http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100203_testimony.pdf.

3. “Report of the National Commission for the Review of the 

National Reconnaissance Office: NRO at the Crossroads,” 1 November 

2000, 21, http://www.loyola.edu/departments/academics/politicalscience/strategic-intelligence/intel/nro-comm-2000.pdf. 

4. Thomas G. Behling and Kenneth McGruther, “Satellite 

Reconnaissance of the Future,” Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 1998, 28, 

reprinted in Roy F. Houchin, comp., National Reconnaissance Office 

(NRO): An Independent Space Force (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University, AY 

2011), 364. 

5. “Report of the National Commission,” 4. 

6. Edward G. Stockwell and H. Theodore Groat, World Population: 

An Introduction to Demography (New York: Franklin Watts, 1984), 291–

92.

7. Western Europe and North America.

8. Weak and poor states including a large portion of sub-Saharan 

Africa.

9. Sarah Collinson, “Globalisation and the Dynamics of 

International Migration: Implications for the Refugee Regime,” May 1999, 
27

 

2, 4, 12, and 15, 

http://repository.forcedmigration.org/show_metadata.jsp?pid=fmo:2457. 

10. Safe zones are areas designated to protect refugees within their 

own homelands rather than necessitating their seeking refuge in other 

nations. This concept was promoted by the UNHCR as countries became 

increasingly reluctant to accept refugees. Such safe zones may be agreed 

upon or enforced by military action, such as the United States, French, 

and British establishment of a safe zone in Northern Iraq during 

Operation Provide Comfort. 

11. Temporary protection in a host country entailing the right to 

remain until it is safe to return to one’s homeland. 

12. Susanne Schmeidl, “The Early Warning of Forced Migration: 

State or Human Security?” in Refugees and Forced Displacement: 

International Security, Human Vulnerability, and the State, eds. Edward 

Newman and Joann van Selm (Tokyo: UN University Press, 2003), 144–

45. Schmeidl reported that Lt Gen Roméo Dallaire, who served as the UN 

force commander in Rwanda in 1993 and 1994, warned the UN 

Department of Peacekeeping Operations that mass killings of Tutsis were 

about to take place and suggested measures to prevent the murders, but 

the UN did not intervene.

13. Alexander Betts, et al., The State of the World’s Refugees 2006: 

Human Displacement in the New Millennium, Nada Merheb, et al., eds. 
28

 

(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 12–13, 

http://www.unhcr.org/4a4dc1a89.html. 

14. Kelly M. Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced 

Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy, Cornell Studies in Security 

Affairs, Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt, eds. (Ithaca, 

NY: Cornell University Press, 2010), 2.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid., 2–3.

17. Ibid., 75–130.

18. Barbara Crossette, State of World Population 2010—From 

Conflict and Crisis to Renewal: Generations of Change (N. p.: UNFPA, 

2010), 63, 

http://www.unfpa.org/public/home/sitemap/swp2010#reports. 

19. Ibid., 63–69.

20. Rhoda Margesson, Andorra Bruno, and Jeremy M. Sharp, 

“Iraqi Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons: A Deepening 

Humanitarian Crisis?” Congressional Research Service (CRS), 13 

February 2010, 1–7, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33936.pdf. 

21. Curt Tarnoff, “Afghanistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance,” CRS, 12 

August 2010, 9, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40699.pdf. 

22. UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “2010 UNHCR 

Country Operations Profile—Afghanistan,” http://www.unhcr.org/cgibin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e486eb6. 
29

 

23. UNHCR, “Protecting Refugees: The Role of UNHCR,” 2008–09, 

15, http://www.unhcr.org/4034b6a34.pdf. 

24. Ibid., 15–16, 22–23.

25. UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics 

Division, “Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration: 

Revision 1,” 17, 

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesM/SeriesM_58rev1E.pdf. 

26. Roberta Cohen and Francis M. Deng, Masses in Flight: The 

Global Crisis of Internal Displacement (Washington, DC: Brookings 

Institution Press, 1998), 16.

27. Inter-Parliamentary Union, “The International Mass Migration 

of People: Its Demographic, Religious, Ethnic and Economic Causes; Its 

Effects on Source and Receiving Countries; Its Implications 

Internationally; and the Rights of Migrants and Refugees,” 12 September 

1992, http://www.ipu.org/conf-e/88spl.htm. The Inter-Parliamentary 

Union is an international organization of parliaments established in 1889 

to promote global parliamentary exchange of ideas, peace, and 

cooperation among peoples. As of 2010, 155 members and nine associate 

members comprised the Inter-Parliamentary Union.

28. Ibid. 

29. Betts, The State of the World’s Refugees 2006, 212.

30. UNHCR, “UNHCR Statistical Yearbook 2009, Country Data 

Sheets,” October 2010, http://www.unhcr.org/4ce5327f9.html. 
30

 

31. Schmeidl, “The Early Warning of Forced Migration,” 133–138.

32. Ibid., 139.

33. Ibid., 140.

34. The Distributed Active Archive Center at the Oak Ridge 

National Laboratory defines net primary production thusly: “Net primary 

productivity (NPP) is defined as the net flux of carbon from the 

atmosphere into green plants per unit time. NPP refers to a rate process, 

i.e., the amount of vegetable matter produced (net primary production) 

per day, week, or year. However, the terms net primary productivity and 

net primary production are sometimes used rather liberally and 

interchangeably, and some scientists still tend to confuse productivity

with standing biomass or standing crop. NPP is a fundamental ecological 

variable, not only because it measures the energy input to the biosphere 

and terrestrial carbon dioxide assimilation, but also because of its 

significance in indicating the condition of the land surface area and 

status of a wide range of ecological processes.” Distributed Active Archive 

Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Net Primary Productivity 

Methods,” n. d., http://daac.ornl.gov/NPP/html_docs/npp_est.html.

35. Steven W. Running, et al., “A Continuous Satellite-Derived 

Measure of Global Terrestrial Primary Production,” BioScience 54, no. 6 

(June 2004), 548, 555–559, http://www.jstor.org/stable/3333948. 

36. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that the 

global mean surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.9°F 
31

 

since 1880. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 

concluded in 2007 that warning of the climate system is now 

‘unequivocal,’ based on observations of increases in global average air 

and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising 

global average sea level.” EPA, “Temperature Changes,” 10 September 

2010, http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html.) 

37. David A. Relman, Margaret A. Hamburg, Eileen R. Choffnes, 

and Alison Mack, Rapporteurs, Forum on Global Health, Global Climate 

Change and Extreme Weather Events: Understanding the Contributions to 

Infectious Disease Emergence: Workshop Summary (Washington, DC: 

National Academies Press, 2008), 5, 

http://www.nap.edu.catalog/12345.html; US Geological Survey, “Where 

Is Earth’s Water Located?” 14 December 2010, 

http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthwherewater.html .

38. Saijel Kishan and Madeline Pearson, “Water Outperforms Oil, 

Luring Pickens, GE’s Immelt (Update 1),” Bloomberg, 26 June 2006, 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news/pid=newsarchive&sid=a823kgC

Oa5Zo7refer=canada. 

39. Stephen E. Herrmann, “Water More Valuable than Oil Now? 

For Sure Someday!” American College of Environmental Lawyers, 21 

January 2010, http://www.ecoel.org/2010/01/articles/water/watermore-valuable-than -oil-now-for-sure-someday/. 

40. Kishan and Pearson, “Water Outperforms Oil.” 
32

 

41. “Satellites Help Measure Earth’s Water,” UPI.com, 6 August 

2010, http://www.upi.com/Science?News?2010/08/06/Satellites-helpmeasure-Earths-water/UPI-50651281129430/. 

42. “Space-borne Sensors Help Africa Tackle Water Shortage 

Problems,” ScienceDaily, 8 August 2007, 

http://sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070803092820.htm. 

43. Wilbur K. Ottichilo, “Satellites Can Help Monitor and Manage 

African Droughts,” SciDev Network, 11 November 2009, 

http://www.scidev.net/en/opinions/satellites-can-help-monitor-andmanage-african-droughts.html. 

44. “Tracking Desertification with Satellites,” ScienceDaily, 31 

October 2005, 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/05/1031125638.htm. 

45. Africa Centre for Holistic Management, “Land, Water & 

Livelihoods Restoration through Holistic Management,” n. d., 

http://www.sa.usaid.gov/southern_africa/sites/south_africa/files/Articl

e%20Centre%20for%20Holistic%20Management.pdf. 

46. Satellite Imaging Corporation, “Agriculture,” n. d., 

http://www.satimagingcorp.com/svc/agriculture.html. 

47. Ibid.

48. Ibid.

49. World Health Organization, “Malaria: Fact Sheet No. 94,” April 

2010, http://who.int/mediacenter/factsheets/fs094/en/index.html. 
33

 

50. A. Charoenpanyanet and X. Chen, “Satellite-Based Modeling of 

Anopheles Mosquito Densities on Heterogeneous Land Cover in Western 

Thailand,” Annals of GIS 14, no. 1 (1 June 2008), 20–21, 

www.iseis.cuhk.edu/hk/downloads/full_paper/2008-20-26.pdf. 

51. Ibid., 22–25.

52. Paul R. Epstein, “Health Applications of Remote Sensing and 

Climate Modeling,” in People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and 

Social Science, eds. Diana Liverman et al. (Washington, DC: National

Academy Press, 1998), 198.

53. Running et al., “Continuous Satellite-Derived Measure, 559.

54. Epstein, “Health Applications of Remote Sensing,” 202–03.

55. Relman, Global Climate Change, xii-xiii. 

56. Keith C. Clarke, Sara L. McLafferty, and Barbara J. Tempalski, 

“On Epidemiology and Geographic Information Systems: A Review and 

Discussion of Future Directions,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 2, no. 2 

(April–June 1996), 85, 

http://www.ncbi.nim.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2639830/pdf/8903207.

pdf. 

57. Obama, “National Security Strategy,” 3, 8.

58. Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda, “A Climate of Conflict: 

The Links between Climate Change, Peace and War,” International Alert, 

November 2007, 3, http://www.internationalalert.org/pdf/A_Climate_Of_Conflict.pdf. 
34

 

59. Ibid., 3, 16. 

60. Ibid., 10, 15. 

61. Debra Werner, “NRC: More Data Needed for Long-term Climate 

Forecasting,” Space News 21, no. 38 (27 September 2010), 12.

62. Ronald R. Rindfuss and Paul C. Stern, “Linking Remote 

Sensing and Social Science: The Need and the Challenges,” in People and 

Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science, eds. Diana Liverman 

et al. (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1998), 1–25.

63. Richard A. Matthew, “The Environment as a National Security 

Issue,” Journal of Policy History 12, no. 1 (2000), 113, 

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_policy_history/v012/12.1matt

hew.html.

64. Alison Wiltshire and Sandra Amlang, eds., Early Warning—

From Concept to Action: The Conclusions of the Third International 

Conference on Early Warning 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany (Bonn: 

Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and 

German Committee for Disaster Reduction, 2006), 27–29, 

http://www.unisdr.org/publications/v.php?id=606.

65. Smith, “A Climate of Conflict,” 5. 

66. Schmeidl, “Early Warning of Forced Migration,” 140.

67. Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration, 272–80.
35

 

68. “National Defense Strategy,” June 2008, 9, 

http://www.defense.gov/news/2008%20national%20defense%20strateg

y.pdf.