**Ac tual (census years) and Estimates (other years)** 

**Year Estimate_1**  **Estimate_2 Estimate_3**  **Time Seeded**  **Pasture 1986**  **8.8 8.8**  **8.8 Year**  **(T) (milion acres)**  1987 9.0 9.1 9.1 1986 1 8.8 1988 9.3 9.4 9.3 1991 2 10.2 1989 9.5 9.7 9.6 1996 3 10.7 1990 9.8 9.9 9.9 2001 4 11.9 **1991 10.2**  **10.2 10.2**  2006 5 14.1 1992 10.5 10.3 10.4 1993 10.7 10.4 10.6 1994 11.0 10.5 10.8 1995 11.2 10.6 10.9 1986 1 8.7 **1996 10.7**  **10.7 10.7**  1991 2 9.9 1997 11.0 11.0 11.0 1996 3 11.1 1998 11.2 11.2 11.2 2001 4 12.4 1999 11.5 11.4 11.5 2006 5 13.6 2000 11.7 11.6 11.7 **2001 11.9**  **11.9 11.9**  2002 12.1 12.2 12.2 2003 12.4 12.6 12.5 2004 12.6 13.0 12.8 **SUM MA**  **RY OUTPUT** 2005 12.8 13.3 13.1 **2006 14.1**  **14.1 14.1**  Regression Statistics 2007 14.3 14.4 14.4 Multiple R 0.975975577 2008 14.6 14.8 14.7 R Square 0.952528326 2009 14.8 15.2 15.0 Adjusted R Square 0.936704435 2010 15.0 15.5 15.3 Standard Error 0.496896086 **Seeded pasture areas in census publications**

**Regression estimates for census years**

2010 15.0 15.5 15.3 Standard Error 0.496896086 Observations 5

ANOVA df SS Regression 1 14.86263327 Residual 3 0.740717161 Total 4 15.60335043

Coefficients Standard Error Intercept 7.486318 0.521149012 T 1.219124 0.157132339

**Notes:** 1. Tame or seeded pasture data from Censuses of Agriculture from 1986 to 2006 have been used to estimate a regression line. 2. In Column C (Estimate_1), annual estimates between the census y ears are derived by adding the im me diate past census data to the coefficient (T) distributed equally to the y ears between two census cy cles (i.e., coefficient divided by 5). 3. In Column D (Estimate_2), annual estimates are derived through simple and weighted trending for the y ears from 1997 to 2010 except the census y ears. The trend from 2002 onward is calculated by apply ing m ore weight (66.7%) to the current period (2001-2006) than the immediate past period (1996-2001) (33.3% weight). 4. Annual estimates in Column E (Esimate_3) are simple averages of estimates in Column C and Column D. Estimate_3 has been used in calculations. 5. Estimates for the census y ears (1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006) are published numbers.

### Chart 1

**Chart 2** y = 1.2191x + 7.4863

6 8 10 12 14 16

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Seeded Pasture Linear (Seeded Pasture)

6 8 10 12 14 161986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

MS F Significance F 14.86263327 60.19558096 0.004453916 0.24690572

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 14.36502389 0.000731184 5.827787698 9.144848302 5.827787698 9.144848302 7.758581117 0.004453916 0.719058298 1.719189702 0.719058298 1.719189702

1. Tame or seeded pasture data from Censuses of Agriculture from 1986 to 2006 have been used to estimate a regression line. 2. In Colum n C (Estimate_1), annual estimates between the census y ears are derived by

adding the im me diate past census data to the coefficient (T) distributed equally to the y ears between two census cy cles (i.e., coefficient divided by 5). 3. In Colum n D (Estimate_2), annual estimates are derived through simple and weighted trending for the y ears from 1997 to 2010 except the census y ears. The trend from 2002 onward is calculated by apply ing m ore weight (66.7%) to the current period (2001-2006) than the immediate past period (1996-2001) (33.3% weight). 4. Annual estim ates in Colum n E (Esimate_3) are simple averages of estimates in Column C and Column D. Estimate_3 has been used in calculations. Estimate_1 Estimate_2 Estimate_32. In Colum n C (Estimate_1), annual estimates between the census y ears are derived by

adding the im me diate past census data to the coefficient (T) distributed equally to the y ears between two census cy cles (i.e., coefficient divided by 5).**Geography Ar**  **ea (acres) Ty**  **pe of crop 1995**  **1996 1997**  **1998 1999**  **2000**

Canada Cultivated area Christmas tree 132,848 126,197 119,546 112,895 106,244 99,593 Canada Cultivated area Sod and nursery 106,585 107,454 99,750 90,230 93,700 92,185 **Total (million of acres) 0.2**  **0.2 0.2**  **0.2 0.2**  **0.2**

**Notes:** 1. Calculated from Census of Agriculture data (in black), 1996-2006, and annual sod and nusery survey data (in light blue), 1997-2010. 2. Numbers for the y ears between the censuses (in blue) have been derived assuming a linear growth between the census y ears.**2001 2002**  **2003 2004**  **2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010** 

92,941 89,490 86,039 82,588 79,137 75,688 72,239 68,790 65,341 61,892 111,798 111,920 116,905 113,295 108,738 110,871 108,441 106,010 106,450 108,765 **0.2 0.2**  **0.2 0.2**  **0.2 0.2**  **0.2 0.2**  **0.2 0.2** 

1. Calculated from Census of Agriculture data (in black), 1996-2006, and annual sod and nusery survey data (in light blue), 1997-2010. 2. Numbers for the y ears between the censuses (in blue) have been derived assuming a linear growth between the census y ears.Field crops and Specialty crops Hay and

Forage Summer

fallow Fruits and

Vegetables Nursery, Sod

and Christmas tree Seeded

pasture **Total**

**Cropland and Pasture**  **(Annual Survey**  **s)**

1995 69.5 16.7 16.8 0.5 0.2 10.9 114.6 **1996 69.5**  **16.3 15.3**  **0.5 0.2**  **10.7 112.6**  1997 70.9 16.2 14.0 0.5 0.2 11.0 112.8 1998 71.6 16.8 13.4 0.5 0.2 11.2 113.7 1999 69.9 17.6 14.9 0.5 0.2 11.5 114.6 2000 72.7 18.5 11.5 0.5 0.2 11.7 115.2 **2001 70.1**  **19.5 11.6**  **0.5 0.2**  **11.9 113.8**  2002 69.9 19.8 10.2 0.5 0.2 12.2 112.8 2003 70.8 20.0 8.6 0.5 0.2 12.5 112.7 2004 69.9 20.4 8.6 0.5 0.2 12.8 112.4 2005 67.9 20.7 9.3 0.5 0.2 13.1 111.8 **2006 67.6**  **21.0 8.6**  **0.5 0.2**  **14.1 112.0**  2007 70.0 21.0 7.3 0.6 0.2 14.4 113.4 2008 71.0 20.9 6.0 0.5 0.2 14.7 113.4 2009 70.5 21.0 6.2 0.6 0.2 15.0 113.4 2010 64.3 20.8 11.6 0.5 0.2 15.3 112.7 **Mean 69.8**  **19.2 10.9**  **0.5 0.2**  **12.7 113.2**  **Standard deviation**  **1.9 1.9**  **3.3 0.0**  **0.0 1.6**  **1.0**

**Percent of the mean**  **61.6 17.0**  **9.6 0.5**  **0.2 11.2**  **100.0** Years

**Million of Acres Total** 

**Cropland and Pasture**  **(Census + under**  **coverage)**

-- **115.1**

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-- **115.9**

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-- **113.0**

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