SANDIA REPORT

SAND2017-2902

Unlimited Release

Printed March 2017

Assessing, Detecting, and Deterring the 

Threat of Maritime Nuclear and 

Radiological Smuggling in the Western 

Indian Ocean Region

M. Umer Khan

Prepared by

Sandia National Laboratories

Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550

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National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Approved for public release; further dissemination unlimited.
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SAND2017-2902

Unlimited Release

Printed March 2017

Assessing, Detecting, and Deterring the Threat 

of Maritime Nuclear and Radiological Smuggling 

in the Western Indian Ocean Region

M. Umer Khan

2016 Visiting Research Subject Matter Expert

Cooperative Monitoring Center

Sandia National Laboratories

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Abstract

This paper proposes that current maritime smuggling routes in the western Indian 

Ocean region are similar to those in the past and that the motivations of terrorist groups 

and the presence of radioactive sources in the Indian Ocean littoral and other states 

present a significant security threat. The majority of regional terrorist groups have a 

hybrid structure, piggybacking on criminal activity to fund their terror activities. 

Additionally, states have used maritime routes in the Indian Ocean region to transport 

nuclear materials and missiles. Thus, the maritime dimension of such threats remains, 

and may be increasing. This paper focuses on issues, motivations, pathways, and 

methods for detecting and interdicting nuclear and radiological trafficking. It analyzes 

the potential use of maritime technology for radiation detection and presents 

recommendations for states and multinational nonproliferation advocacy organizations 

to address the threat in the Indian Ocean region. 
4

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

As the author of this report, I take full responsibility for its research, development, and content. It 

is my personal viewpoint and does not echo or endorse any other organization’s perspective of the 

world. This report could not have been produced without the astute guidance and technical advice 

of my colleagues at Sandia National Laboratories’ Center for Global Security and Cooperation and 

the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC). In particular, I especially appreciate the involvement 

of David Betsill, Paul Trask, Greg Stihel, and Adriane Littlefield. At Sandia’s CMC, David was 

very patient and provided the requisite resources and input to make this project a success. I am 

also grateful to Suzanne Cordova for the numerous things she did to make my tenure at Sandia 

comfortable and to efficiently arrange travel, accommodation, and logistics in support the 

accomplishment of the research; and always with grace and a smile.
5

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

M. Umer Khan was a 2016 Visiting Researcher and Subject Matter Expert at Sandia National 

Laboratories’ Cooperative Monitoring Center where he focused on nuclear and radiological 

smuggling, detection, deterrence, and other projects. Umer received his master’s degree in 

nonproliferation and terrorism studies from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at 

Monterey, California. He completed his undergraduate degree in computer software engineering 

from the Military College of Signals, a constituent campus of the National University of Science 

and Technology in Pakistan, where his area of focus was cyber security and cyber forensics. Umer 

is passionate about countering violent extremism and nuclear and cyber security. 

Contact information: mukhan025@gmail.com. 

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CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary................................................................................................................ 11

2 Maritime Security Risks in the Indian Ocean Region ............................................................ 13

2.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 13

2.2 Background and Characteristics of the Indian Ocean................................................... 14

2.3 Importance of the IOR: Strategic Trade Routes ........................................................... 15

2.4 Natural Resources......................................................................................................... 15

3 Risk and Threat Assessment in the Indian Ocean................................................................... 17

3.1 Small Arms and Light Weapons Trafficking................................................................ 17

3.2 Narcotics Smuggling..................................................................................................... 18

3.3 Armed Robberies and Piracy ........................................................................................ 18

3.4 Maritime Terrorism....................................................................................................... 19

3.5 Maritime Proliferation Routes ...................................................................................... 20

4 Major Smuggling Routes for Dhows and Small Boats........................................................... 21

4.1 Historical and Current Aspects of Smuggling by Dhows............................................. 23

4.1.1 Middle East ..................................................................................................... 23

4.1.2 East Africa ...................................................................................................... 24

4.1.3 India and Pakistan........................................................................................... 26

5 Potential Use of Nuclear and Radiological Material by Terrorists......................................... 33

5.1 Ideologies and Motivations of the Major Terrorist Groups in South Asia ................... 33

5.2 Terrorist Groups Operating in the Middle East ............................................................ 34

6 Incidents, Materials of Concern, and Nuclear Security Culture ............................................. 37

6.1 Incidents and Tracking.................................................................................................. 38

6.2 Thefts and Loses........................................................................................................... 40

6.3 Other Incidents Involving Unauthorized Activities and Events................................... 41

6.4 The Variable Nuclear Security Culture in South Asia and the Middle East................. 41

7 Technology and Methodologies for Detecting and Deterring Materials of Concern ............. 43

7.1 Global Water Way Watch............................................................................................. 43

7.2 Installation of Identification and Geo-Locating Devices on Smaller Vessels.............. 44

7.3 Small Vessel Voluntary Reporting System................................................................... 44

7.4 Capacity Building of Coast Guards and Maritime Security Agency............................ 45

7.5 Shared Indian Ocean Littoral States Surveillance Systems.......................................... 45

7.6 Establishment of Maritime Risk Reduction Centers..................................................... 45

7.7 Encouraging States to Establish a Nuclear Detection Architecture.............................. 46

7.8 Use of Crisis/Crime Informatics Software.................................................................... 47

7.9 Pivotal Role of Centers of Excellence for Nuclear Security......................................... 47

8 Conclusions and Recommendations....................................................................................... 49

9 Potential Near-Term and Longer-Term Project Ideas ............................................................ 51

9.1 Short Term .................................................................................................................... 51

9.2 Longer Term ................................................................................................................. 51

9.3 Final Thoughts.............................................................................................................. 51

10 Distribution ............................................................................................................................. 52
8

FIGURES

Figure 1. Map of the Indian Ocean Region................................................................................... 13

Figure 2. Known Smuggling Routes in the Indian Ocean. ........................................................... 17

Figure 3. Major Smuggling Routes Used by Dhows (for references see Section 4 footnotes). ... 22

Figure 4. Smuggling Routes between Yemen and Djibouti (for references see Section 4, footnote 

48). ................................................................................................................................................ 23

Figure 5. Major Smuggling Routes in East Africa (for references see Section 4, footnotes 40 to 

47). ................................................................................................................................................ 25

Figure 6. Direct Smuggling Routes from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Africa (see Section 3, 

footnotes 11-13 for references)..................................................................................................... 30

Figure 7. Smuggling Routes from Pakistan to Africa and the Middle East via Gujarat (India) (see 

footnotes 49-64 for references)..................................................................................................... 31

Figure 8. Smuggling Routes from Pakistan to Africa and the Middle East via Maharashtra (India) 

(see footnotes 49-64 for references). ............................................................................................ 31

Figure 9. Confirmed Incidents Involving Unauthorized Possession and Related Criminal 

Activities, 1993- 2015................................................................................................................... 39

Figure 10. Confirmed Incidents Involving Theft or Loss, 1993-2015.......................................... 39

Figure 11. Incidents Involving Unauthorized Activities and Events, 1993-2015......................... 40

Figure 12. Variable Nuclear Security Culture in the World (Source: CNS Trafficking Report 

2016). ............................................................................................................................................ 41

TABLES

Table 1. Major Smuggling Ports in the Western IOR (for references see Section 4 footnotes)... 22

Table 2. Table Minor Ports in India by Region ............................................................................ 28

Table 3. Common Radioactive Sources Found in Industrial and Research Applications. ........... 38
9

NOMENCLATURE

AIS Automatic Identification System 

BARC Bhaba Atomic Research Center

BBC British Broadcasting Corporation 

CMC Cooperative Monitoring Center

CNS Center for Nonproliferation Studies 

CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

CSI Container Security Initiative

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

EU European Union 

DHS U.S. Department of Homeland Security

FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization

GAO U.S. Government Accountability Office

GPS Global Positing Satellite

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

IOR Indian Ocean Region

ISIS The Islamic State of Iraq and Sham 

ITDB IAEA Incident and Trafficking Database 

MMD Mercantile Marine Department 

MMSI Maritime Mobile Service Identity

MRRCs Maritime Risk Reduction Centers 

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NAVFOR European Union Naval Force (Operation Atlanta)

NNSA U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration

SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons Trafficking 

TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan

UAE United Arab Emirates

UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 

11

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This research proposes that current maritime smuggling routes are similar to those in the past and 

that the motivations of terrorist groups and the presence of radioactive sources in the Indian Ocean 

littoral and other states present a viable security threat. Additionally, this research analyzes the 

potential use of maritime technology for radiation detection in the Indian Ocean region. 

Since the sixteenth century, traders have been involved in maritime smuggling in the Indian Ocean 

as a way to avoid the Portuguese navy, which had started regularizing trade. These historical 

smuggling routes have essentially remained the same, but the commodities smuggled have evolved 

from gold, ivory, and cloves to small arms and weapons, humans, and drugs. Currently, the 

majority of regional terrorist groups have a hybrid structure, piggybacking on criminal activity to 

fund their terror activities. The demand and motivation to use nuclear or radiological materials in 

terrorist attacks have been clearly expressed by Al-Qaeda, Aum Shinrikyo, and now the Islamic 

State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Additionally, states have used maritime routes in the Indian Ocean 

region to transport—and therefore proliferate—nuclear materials and missiles. Thus, the maritime 

dimension of such threats remains, and may be increasing.

Outside of port monitoring programs, there has been little research conducted on the detection of 

maritime nuclear or radiological trafficking via unregulated ports and vessels. As a result of the 

Nuclear Security Summits and other multilateral forums such as the Global Initiative to Counter 

Nuclear Terrorism, countries have strengthened their nuclear regulatory mechanisms to reduce the 

risk of orphan radiological sources and pilferage of nuclear material. Concomitantly, terrorist 

groups are also adopting new methods to inflict maximum financial and human suffering. The 

2008 Mumbai attack and the 2000 attack on the USS Cole in the Port of Aden in Yemen are prime 

examples of terrorists using novel ways to carry out attacks. 

This research focuses on issues, motivations, pathways, and methods for detecting and interdicting

nuclear and radiological trafficking. Moreover, it presents recommendations for states and 

multinational nonproliferation advocacy organizations to address the threat, including approaches 

such as involving local fishing communities to assist in the detection and deterrence of nuclear and 

radiological smuggling. Recommendations include: 

• Global Water Way Watch

• Installation of Identification and Geo-Locating Devices on Smaller Vessels

• Small Vessel Voluntary Reporting System

• Capacity Building of Coast Guards and Maritime Security Agency

• Shared Indian Ocean Littoral States Surveillance Systems

• Establishment of Maritime Risk Reduction Centers (MRRCs)

• Encouraging States to Establish a Nuclear Detection Architecture, 

• Use of Crisis/Crime Informatics Software, and 

• The Pivotal Role of Centers of Excellence for Nuclear Security. 

13

2 MARITIME SECURITY RISKS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN 

REGION

2.1 Introduction

The Indian Ocean region (IOR) (Figure 1) has risen to paramount contemporary importance 

because of global economics and geopolitics, and because it is an avenue for powerful countries 

to project their might to other peripheral states. The United States, due to its blue ocean navy, has 

been a dominant power in the Indian Ocean; but other powers such as India and China are also 

trying to gain a foothold in the Indian Ocean. In the last two decades, the geo-strategic importance 

of the IOR has increased as a result of two major wars: the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were 

both fought from the waters of the Indian Ocean.

Figure 1. Map of the Indian Ocean Region.

1

Historically, the IOR has been the center of conflict and economic opportunities and the conduit 

for the spread of religion for major powers in the world. Islam, the second largest religion of the

world, would never have expanded as far as the Iberian Peninsula, China, and South and South 

East Asia if it had not been for the naval fleets of the Muslim empire. 

According to Kaplan, “Under the Arab-Persian cultural unity effected by the eclectic medieval 

Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad, Arab and Persian sailings across the Indian Ocean from Africa to 

the Far East became nearly distinguishable, falling under the general rubric of Muslim trade and 

 

1 Source: University of Texas Libraries Maps,

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/islands_oceans_poles/indianoceanarea.jpg.
14

exploration.”2 Trade helped Muslims to propagate their religion to different parts of the world, and 

by the end of fifteenth century, there were 30 coastal towns established by Muslim traders.

In the post-decolonization era, the Indian Ocean became the hub of trade, particularly for the 

shipment of oil produced by Middle Eastern countries. Unfortunately, non-state actors also used 

the region for various illicit activities including piracy and smuggling of contraband drugs and 

weapons. This paper analyzes the potential for nuclear and radiological trafficking by studying the 

smuggling patterns, trade routes, and non-state actors operating in the IOR. The geographical 

scope of the study is the IOR from the west coast of India to East Africa and the Middle East.

2.2 Background and Characteristics of the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean, the third largest ocean after the Pacific and Atlantic, covers an area of 68.5 

million square km and connects three major land masses: Asia, Africa, and Australia.3 There are 

38 key littoral states that share their coastlines with the Indian Ocean. These states include

Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Comoros, Djibouti, East Timor, Egypt, Eritrea, India, Indonesia, 

Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritius, 

Mozambique, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Singapore, Somalia, 

South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and 

Yemen.4 According to David Michel and Russell Sticklor, Britain and France should also be 

included in this list since they have territories in the Indian Ocean. 

The IOR includes the Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, 

Flores Sea, Great Australian Bight, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Java Sea, Mozambique Channel, 

Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Savu Sea, Strait of Malacca, Timor Sea, and other tributary water bodies. 

The IOR has major ports at Chennai (Madras, India), Colombo (Sri Lanka), Durban (South Africa), 

Jakarta (Indonesia), Kolkata (Calcutta, India), Melbourne (Australia), Mumbai (Bombay, India), 

and Richards Bay (South Africa).5 The IOR has seven choke points: the Mozambique Channel, 

the Bab el Mandeb, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, the Malacca Straits, the Sunda Strait, 

and the Lombok Strait. The IOR can be divided into the following sub-regions:6

• Middle East and Gulf

• Red Sea and Horn of Africa

• East Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

• South Asia

• Southeast Asia/Oceania

 2 Robert Kaplan, “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power,” Random House, New York,

2010, page 27. 3 “Indian Ocean: A Sea of Uncertainty,” Future Directions International, Perth, Australia, February 2012, page 9.

Accessed April 12, 2016.

http://futuredirections.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/IndianOceanASeaofUncertainty-.pdf. 4 Michel David, and Russell Sticklor, Editors, “Indian Ocean Rising: Maritime Security and Policy Challenges.” The

Henry L. Stimson Center Report, September 2012, page 9. Accessed April 8, 2016.

http://www.stimson.org/sites/default/files/file-attachments/IOR_chapter1_1.pdf. 5 Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, “The Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Net Assessment,” Center

for Strategic and International Security, 2014, page 1. Accessed April 9, 2016.

http://csis.org/files/publication/140725_Indian_Ocean_Region.pdf. 6 Ibid., 2.
15

2.3 Importance of the IOR: Strategic Trade Routes

Trade has always been a cornerstone of the countries in the Indian Ocean, be it the export of tons 

of frankincense from the Dhopari port of Yemen to the Roman Empire or the export of spices from 

the Marlabar coast of India to Europe. According to Robert D. Kaplan, “It is my contention that 

the Great Indian Ocean, stretching eastward from the Horn of Africa past the Arabian Peninsula, 

the Iranian plateau, and the Indian Subcontinent, all the way to the Indonesian archipelago and 

beyond may comprise a map as iconic to the new century as Europe was to the last one.” According 

to a proverb, “If the world was an egg, Hormuz would have been its yolk.” 

Not only is the Indian Ocean home to more than 2 billion people, but it is also the hub of shipping 

and oil commerce throughout the world. Additionally, the world’s most critical sea lanes and trade 

routes are in the Indian Ocean. Although Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, and Kuwait are ranked in the 

top ten oil-producing countries and the Middle East produces 30 percent of the world’s oil, an 

estimated 40 percent of the world's offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean. 

Moreover, more than 50 percent of the global maritime oil trade occurs in or via the Indian Ocean. 

2.4 Natural Resources

Besides being a source of shipment of oil, the Indian Ocean is rich in fisheries and minerals. 

According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the Indian Ocean 

supplies 14.6 percent of the world fisheries, worth $11.3 billion. The majority of the states in the 

IOR are developing countries, and fisheries are therefore an important element of their economy. 

According to a recent report of the FAO, developing countries’ share of the overall fisheries trade 

has risen to approximately 54 percent. Along the coastlines of littoral states of the Indian Ocean, 

there are thousands of fishing communities that depend on traditional fishing. More than 15 million 

people are engaged in fishing along these coasts of IOR. In 2012, the total catch in the western 

Indian Ocean was 4.5 million tons and in the eastern Indian Ocean it was 7.4 million tons. 

The bed of the Indian Ocean also contains heavy-minerals sand deposits. According to experts, it 

has the second largest reserve of mineral deposits after the Pacific Ocean. Polymetallic nodules 

and polymetallic massive sulphides are of primary importance among these minerals. Polymetallic 

nodules contain cobalt, iron, nickel, and manganese, while polymetallic massive sulphides are 

important because they contain copper, zinc, and gold. According to experts, there are other 

minerals such as titanium and zirconium off the coast of South Africa and Mozambique. Also, 

there are tin placer deposits off the coast of Thailand, Myanmar, and Indonesia. With increasing 

demand, the value of these minerals will also rise, thereby increasing the importance of the IOR.

17

3 RISK AND THREAT ASSESSMENT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The IOR has been beset by piracy, armed robberies, maritime terrorism, small arms and light 

weapons trafficking, along with human trafficking, conflicts, and insurgencies (Figure 2). This 

section will highlight the risks and threats posed by such activities in the IOR. 

Figure 2. Known Smuggling Routes in the Indian Ocean.7

3.1 Small Arms and Light Weapons Trafficking

The proliferation of small and light weapons (SALW) has been a major factor in the rise of 

violence in the world, with the most affected being the conflict-ridden countries of East Africa. A 

study conducted by the Stimson Center reported that Africa has lost up to US$18 billion due to 

perennial conflicts, armed insurgencies, and ethnic violence.8 Additionally, there has been a 

history of using the IOR as a pathway to smuggle small arms in the IOR. The sources of the SALW 

 7 Source: Michel David, and Russell Sticklor, Editors, “Indian Ocean Rising: Maritime Security and Policy

Challenges.” The Henry L. Stimson Center Report, September 2012, page 27. Accessed April 8, 2016.

https://www.stimson.org/sites/default/files/file-attachments/Book_IOR_2_1.pdf. 8

Brian Finlay, Johan Bergenas, and Veronica Tessler, “Beyond Boundaries in Eastern Africa: Bridging the

Security/Development Divide with International Security Assistance.” The Henry L. Stimson Center and Stanley

Foundation Report, Preface. Accessed April 08, 2016.

http://www.operationspaix.net/DATA/DOCUMENT/4393~v~Beyond_Boundaries_in_Eastern_Africa__Bridging_t

he_Security__Development_Divide_With_International_Security_Assistance.pdf.
18

that are smuggled through the IOR are Ethiopia, India, Iran, Iraq, Mozambique, Myanmar, 

Pakistan, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Thailand, and Yemen. The small arms are 

mostly destined for Somalia (Kismayo, Mogadishu, Haradhere, Bossaso); Yemen (Hodeidah, 

Aden); Eritrea (Massawa, Aseb); Sudan (Port Sudan); and Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria (via Suez). 

When Oman was a closed society during the era of Sultan Said bin Taimur, weapons and 

ammunition were smuggled through the Gulf of Aden.9 Even now in the twenty-first century, small 

arms are smuggled into conflict- and insurgency-ridden states. Since the start of hostilities in 

Yemen between the Houti rebels and Saudi Arabia in 2015, the U.S. Navy has interdicted stateless 

dhows trying to smuggle SALW into Yemen from Iran.10 Importantly, the smuggling of explosives 

through the Raigad coast in Maharashtra, India, and their use in the 1993 serial blasts in Mumbai 

has been one of the factors contributing to the deterioration of relations between India and Pakistan.

3.2 Narcotics Smuggling

Since the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1970s, the lack of law and order in Afghanistan has led to an 

exponential rise in the availability of drugs in the world. The United Nations Office on Drugs and 

Crime (UNODC) estimates that a quarter of a billion people used illicit drugs in 2013.11 The rise 

in demand has led to an increase in production following the simple rule of supply and demand. 

In Afghanistan, the narcotics trade amounts to a staggering US$3 billion.12 Since Afghanistan is a 

land-locked country, the only viable route for narcotics smuggling other than Central Asia is via 

the Indian Ocean by way of Pakistan. Other than Afghanistan, the major producers of narcotics 

(which include opium, crystal methamphetamine, and cannabis) are Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan, 

Thailand, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, South Africa, and Sri Lanka.

13

3.3 Armed Robberies and Piracy

Piracy has been reduced by a large extent due to a multilateral effort started in 2008 to patrol the 

IOR; however, there is a constant threat of pirate attacks. Until 2012, the pirates were able to 

expand their operations near the Indian coastal state of Kerala.14 Pirates, who were based mainly 

in Somalia, carried out armed robberies, took hostages, and hijacked cargo vessels. If not for the 

 9 Martin, Esmond Bradley. "The Geography of Present-Day Smuggling in the Western Indian Ocean: The Case of

the Dhow," The Great Circle, Volume 1, Number 2, October 1979, pages 18-35.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/41562293. 10 Sam LaGrone, “U.S. Navy Seizes Suspected Iranian Arms Shipment Bound for Yemen,” USNI News, April 4,

2016. Accessed April 17, 2016. https://news.usni.org/2016/04/04/u-s-navy-seizes-suspected-iranian-arms-shipmentbound-for-yemen. 11 "Status and Trend Analysis of Illicit Drug Markets," UNODC. Accessed June 9, 2016.

http://www.unodc.org/documents/wdr2015/WDR15_Chapter_1.pdf. 12 Taimoor Shah and Mujib Mashal, “Bountiful Afghan Opium Harvest Yields Profits for the Taliban,” The New

York Times, May 4, 2016. Accessed June 9, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/world/asia/taliban-afghanpoppy-harvest-opium.html. 13 Rupert Herbert-Burns, “Indian Ocean Rising: Maritime Security and Policy Challenges.” The Henry L. Stimson

Center Report, 2012, chapter 2, page 28. Accessed April 8, 2016. https://www.stimson.org/content/indian-oceanrising-maritime-security-and-policy-challenges. 14 United States Government Accountability Office, GAO-14-422, “Maritime Security Ongoing U.S. Counterpiracy

Efforts Would Benefit from Agency Assessments,” Washington DC, GAO, 2016, p. 10-11.
19

efforts of the Combined Maritime Forces, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces,15

and European Union Naval force16 to escort cargo vessels, pirates would have continued to attack 

vessels unabated. There have been 581 reported attacks on ships and vessels since 2008. 

Fortunately, due to diligent efforts by the shipping industry, coupled with the effects of the abovementioned maritime security forces, there has been a significant reduction in this activity, and there 

were no successful pirate attacks in the western IOR in 2015 and 2016.17 Efforts such as navigating 

at high speed and hiring armed guards have also deterred the pirates. However, these practices are 

unsustainable economically. Therefore, these stopgap arrangements should be replaced with longterm measures such as securing the coastline of Somalia and increasing employment opportunities 

for people residing along the coastline of the IOR.

3.4 Maritime Terrorism

According to the U.S. Coast Guard’s Strategy for Maritime Safety, Security, and Stewardship, 

small vessels represent one of the greatest risks of terrorism to the United States in the maritime 

domain.18 The IOR is no exception and has been used as a transit point to conduct major terrorist 

activities. In 2008, non-state actors from Pakistan used the Arabian Sea to attack the port city of 

Mumbai.19 Prior to the attack, the terrorists carried out a reconnaissance mission on maritime

traffic patterns near the coast of Mumbai in late 2006 to early 2007.20 Subsequently in 2008, the 

terroristsstarted their journey from Karachi, hijacked Indian fishing vessels in Pakistan’s exclusive 

economic zone, and then near Mumbai used inflatable boats to reach the coast. They covered a 

distance of 500 nautical miles from Karachi to Mumbai, most probably skirting the Pakistani and 

Indian littoral shores/areas. This attack, during which nearly 200 people lost their lives, reflects 

one dimension of the threat of maritime terrorism. 

The Mumbai attack was not an isolated incident. In 2014, terrorists intended to stage an attack on 

a U.S. aircraft carrier by hijacking a Pakistani naval frigate docked in Karachi.21 One of the 

attackers was a former Pakistani naval officer who managed to board the frigate. His accomplices 

were fired upon while trying to approach the frigate on an inflatable motor boat. A firefight 

between Pakistan marine commandos and the terrorists ended the hijacking attempt. This incident 

shows that terrorists see the Indian Ocean as a theatre for asymmetric terrorist operations. In 

 15 The European Union Naval Force (Op Atlanta) Somalia Operation Atlanta was launched on December 8, 2008

and is conducted in accordance with United Nations Security Council's resolutions. http://eunavfor.eu/ 16 Operation Ocean Shield is NATO’s counter piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden and off the Horn of Africa. NATO

has been helping to deter and disrupt pirate attacks, while protecting vessels and helping to increase the general level

of security in the region since 2008. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48815.htm. 17 European External Action Service (EEAS), European Union Naval Force ATALANTA (EU NAVFOR).

Accessed June 11, 2016. http://eunavfor.eu/key-facts-and-figures/. 18 United States Government Accountability Office, GAO-14-32, “Maritime Security DHS Could Benefit from

Tracking Progress in Implementing the Small Vessel Security Strategy,” Washington DC, October 2013, page 5.

http://gao.gov/assets/660/658703.pdf. 19 “Pakistan Charges Seven People Over Mumbai Attacks,” BBC News, November 25, 2009. Accessed May 25,

2016. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8378281.stm. 20 Alan Cummings, “The Mumbai Attack: Terrorism from the Sea,” Center for International Maritime Security, July

29, 2014. Accessed May 5, 2016. http://cimsec.org/mumbai-attack-terrorism-sea/12280. 21 Vijay Sakhuja, “Maritime Terrorism: Karachi as a Staging Point,” Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, October

6, 2014. Accessed June 25, 2016. http://www.ipcs.org/article/peace-and-conflict-database-pakistan/maritimeterrorism-karachi-as-a-staging-point-4680.html.
20

October 2000, terrorists attacked the USS Cole, killing 17 sailors and injuring many others by 

slamming their small boat packed with explosives into the ship.22 The USS Cole had stopped at 

the port of Aden in Yemen for refueling. It was later revealed that the attack was launched by AlQaeda and had the support of the Sudanese government.23 The original plan was to destroy the 

USS The Sullivans, a guided missile destroyer, but due to operational hiccups, the original plan 

could not be carried out so the terrorists instead attacked the USS Cole.24

3.5 Maritime Proliferation Routes

In the past, the IOR has been used as a strategic arms proliferation route. A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani 

scientist, used the Indian Ocean as a transit route to ship thousands of centrifuges to Libya and 

Iran.25 From his industrial plant in Malaysia, A.Q. Khan sent parts of centrifuges from the Strait 

of Malacca to Dubai. From there onwards, the cargo containers made their way to Libya via the 

Suez Canal. Investigators later discovered that not only enrichment technology, but also warhead 

designs, were passed to Libya.26 In addition to non-state actors, states have also proliferated 

nuclear and missile technology through the IOR. For instance in 1988, China transported DF-3 

missiles to Saudi Arabia via the Jeddah Islamic Port.27 North Korea, a pariah state, has been a 

major proliferator of missile and nuclear technology. The North Korean regime has used the Indian 

Ocean to proliferate missile technology to states in South Asia, East Asia, and the Middle East.28

For example, in 2011, the U.S. Destroyer McCampbell intercepted a North Korean cargo ship, the 

M/V Light, that was delivering illegal missile components to Myanmar.29 The United States also 

buttressed the stigma of proliferation attached to North Korea by reporting that the Syrian nuclear 

reactor that was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in 2007 was constructed with the assistance and 

cooperation of North Korea.

30

 22 “USS Cole Bombing,” Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Accessed August 2016.

https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/uss-cole-bombing. 23 “USS Cole Bombing Fast Facts,” CNN News, April 6, 2016. Accessed July 2016.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/world/meast/uss-cole-bombing-fast-facts. 24 Kevin Ryan, “The USS Cole: Twelve Years Later, No Justice or Understanding,” Foreign Policy Journal, October

7, 2012. Accessed June 25, 2016. http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/10/10/the-uss-cole-twelve-years-laterno-justice-or-understanding. 25 William J. Broad, David E. Sanger and Raymond Bonner, “A Tale of Nuclear Proliferation: How Pakistani Built

His Network,” The New York Times, February 4, 2004. Accessed July 25, 2016.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/12/world/a-tale-of-nuclear-proliferation-how-pakistani-built-hisnetwork.html?_r=0. 26 William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, “Warhead Blueprints Link Libya Project to Pakistan Figure,” The New

York Times, February 4, 2004. Accessed 25, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/04/world/warhead-blueprintslink-libya-project-to-pakistan-figure.html?_r=0. 27 Jeffrey Lewis, “Why Did Saudi Arabia Buy Chinese Missiles?” Foreign Policy Magazine, January 30, 2014.

Accessed May 25, 2016. http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/30/why-did-saudi-arabia-buy-chinese-missiles/. 28 “Arms Control and Proliferation Profile: North Korea,” Arms Control Association, Updated January 2016.

Accessed June 4, 2016. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/northkoreaprofile. 29 David Sanger, “US Set to Turn Back North Korea Missile Shipment,” New York Times, June 12, 2011. Accessed

June 16, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/world/asia/13missile.html?_r=0. 30 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Background Briefing with Senior US Officials on Syria's Covert

Nuclear Reactor and North Korea's Involvement,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 24, 2008.

http://www.cfr.org/syria/background-briefing-senior-us-officials-syrias-covert-nuclear-reactor-north-koreasinvolvement/p16105 .
21

4 MAJOR SMUGGLING ROUTES FOR DHOWS AND SMALL 

BOATS

Since the sixteenth century, traders have been involved in smuggling to avoid the Portuguese navy, 

which started regulating trade to strengthen Portugal’s foothold in the Indian Ocean. Later on, the 

smuggling routes were used to ship slaves to avoid British anti-slavery patrols. Post decolonization, the Gulf countries needed labor to work in the sweltering Middle Eastern desert 

climate. Thousands of laborers were transported from Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh to provide 

this labor force. 

“Dhow” is an Arabic name for small boats that have traditionally been a primary mode of 

transportation not only for the traders but also for smugglers in India, East Africa, and the Middle 

East (Figure 3, Table 1). According to Phillip Briggs, “The word dhow, commonly applied by 

Europeans to any traditional seafaring vessel used off the coast of East Africa, is generally assumed 

to be Arabic in origin.”31 According to a NATO report on the dhow project,

The term “Dhow” is probably of Swahili origin, referring to the generic name of 

a number of traditionally-constructed vessels used as the primary maritime 

commercial mode of transportation throughout the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, the 

Arabian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. The structure and shape of Dhows 

differentiate them from other types of merchant vessels. One of a Dhow’s 

greatest strengths is simplicity of design to maximize open hull cargo capacity 

and utility. The word Dhow is not commonly used by the Dhow community 

itself, who usually refer to the specific type of vessel according the shape of the 

hull. Despite a historical attachment to Arab traders, Dhows are essentially an 

Indian boat. Presently, the vast majority of Dhows are powered by diesel engines 

and often supplemented by sail. An increasing number of Dhows are built of 

fiber glass instead of wood, and are growing in size with less strict characteristics 

from the former Dhow types.32

A dhow can carry a load of between 500 and 1500 tons. It is less expensive by 40 percent as 

compared to other ships of the same size and capacity.33 Also, it is imperative to note that dhows 

carry legitimate goods for commerce, not just for smuggling.

 31 Philip Briggs, “Dhows of the Swahili Coast,” Zanzibar Travel Guide. Accessed June 5, 2016.

http://www.zanzibar-travel-guide.com/bradt_guide.asp?bradt=1904. 32 NATO Publication, 2011, “The Dhow Project Identification Guide for Dhows, Skiffs and Whalers in the High

Risk Area.” https://www.norclub.no/assets/ArticleFiles/NATO-Guidance-for-ID.pdf. 33 Rupang Bhatt,” Pirates Threat: Gujarat Dhows Not Allowed to Sail Beyond Salalah,” Desh Gujarat, February 23,

2012. Accessed May 25, 2016. http://deshgujarat.com/2012/02/23/pirates-threat-gujarat-dhows-not-allowed-to-sailbeyond-salalah/.
22

Figure 3. Major Smuggling Routes Used by Dhows (for references see Section 4

footnotes).

Table 1. Major Smuggling Ports in the Western IOR (for references see Section 4 

footnotes).
23

4.1 Historical and Current Aspects of Smuggling by Dhows

4.1.1 Middle East

Oman has a 2,092 km shoreline and a long, rich history of naval mercantilism, considering that its 

hinterland consists of deserts.34 If it were not for its strong historical maritime forces, Oman would 

not have been able to control Zanzibar, Mambosa, and Gwadar. Although Oman took effective 

maritime security measures, it could not stop illegal smuggling before the reforms introduced by 

Sultan Qaboos in 1970.35 The major and minor ports in Oman are Salala, Mutrah, and Sur. Before 

1970, motor parts, perfumes, and hair lotions were smuggled into Oman from Dubai while silks, 

perfumes, and narcotics were trafficked into Oman from India and ammunition was trafficked from 

Aden (Figure 4). The government of Oman had also prohibited its citizens from leaving the country 

and that led to people emigrating via dhows. 

Figure 4. Smuggling Routes between Yemen and Djibouti (for references see Section 4,

footnote 48).

Even now, smugglers transport arms and ammunition near Oman. Recently, a small boat carrying 

arms and ammunition, most probably bound for the Houti rebels in Yemen, was interdicted 241 

km from the port of Salala. The BBC reported, “The weapons found on the fishing boat were listed 

 34 “Oman,” The CIA World Book Fact file. Accessed June 04, 2016. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/mu.html. 35 “Oman profile – Timeline,” BBC World, October 26 2015. Accessed June 5, 2016.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14654492
24

by the coalition as 18 anti-armor Concourse shells, 54 anti-tank BGM17 shells, 15 shell battery 

kits, four firing guidance systems, five binocular batteries, three launchers, one launcher holder,

and three batteries.” 36

Unlike sailing ships and other steamers, dhows can be easily beached without any infrastructure. 

This resulted in the development of an informal economy and to the creation of ports, such as Sur 

in Oman. Historically, steamer ships used Muscat and the dhows harbored in Mutrah.37 In 1975, 

463 dhows called on Mina Qaboos, the main port of Oman. This figure decreased to 272 in 1977 

and 83 by 1979 due to the availability of bigger and faster non-dhow boats. There was also a 

significant decrease of dhow traffic in other ports.38

4.1.2 East Africa

The eastern coastline of Africa from Somalia to South Africa is approximately 6,400 km long. In 

Eastern Africa, dhows are not only being used to smuggle goods, but also people out of and 

between different states (Figure 5). Robert Kaplan views Zanzibar as the principle node of 

commerce in the Indian Ocean for centuries.39 He further says that in the nineteenth century,

“Dhows clogged this port, laden with pilgrims, drugs, coffee, fish, ivory, hides, red pepper, 

ambergris, beeswax, cloves, maize, sorghum, and spices.” The Zanzibar revolution of 1964 stifled 

the economic, political, and social life of Zanzibar and Pemba. The new leader of Zanzibar, Abied 

Karume, adopted the policy of nationalization and took over industries without compensating the 

owners. This led to massive outflux of people from Zanzibar. Approximately 30,000 people 

illegally left Zanzibar on small dhows called jahasiz, mashuas, and ngalawas for the Tanzanian 

mainland and Dar-es-Salam.40

The smuggling routes from Tanzania are now used to smuggle ivory out of Dar-es-Salam, 

Zanzibar, and Tanga. The crisis in Tanzania for decades has been punctuated with arms smuggling, 

poaching, criminal activity, and the breakdown of law and order due to poor governance. There 

was a brief period of success against poaching; however, there has been a resurgence of the ivory 

trade since 2009. According to a report by the international Environmental Investigation Agency,

Tanzania is a key player in the illegal ivory trade. While the escalation in 

poaching is generally traced to 2009, evidence suggests the trend started four 

years earlier, indicating deeper entrenchment than previously acknowledged. 

Between 2009-13, there has been a devastating decline. The Selous population 

fell by 66 percent in just over four years. Based on available evidence, Tanzania 

 36 “Yemen conflict: Iranian Boat 'Carrying Weapons' Seized,” BBC World News, September 30, 2015. Accessed

June 5, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34401246. 37 Mathew, Johan, Margins of the Market: Trafficking and Capitalism across the Arabian Sea, Oakland, California,

University of California Press, 2016, page 39. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/j.ctt1bj4smw. 38 Martin, Esmond Bradley, “The Geography of Present-Day Smuggling in the Western Indian Ocean: The Case of

the Dhow.” The Great Circle, Volume 1, No. 2 (1979), page 21. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41562293. 39 Kaplan, 307. 40 Martin, page 23. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41562293.
25

has lost more elephants to poaching during this period than any other country. In 

2013 alone, it reportedly lost 10,000 elephants, equivalent to 30 a day. 41

The report further blames corruption by government officials and involvement of elements of 

trans-national criminal elements for the increase in elephant poaching. This felonious nexus of 

government officials and criminals is satiating the ivory markets of Asia and China. The major 

trans-shipping nodes to smuggle ivory to China are Malaysia, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and the 

Philippines.42

Figure 5. Major Smuggling Routes in East Africa (for references see Section 4, footnotes

40 to 47).

As mentioned, Africa is ridden with conflicts that generate an environment where corruption and 

other criminal activities thrive. One such country is Somalia, which collapsed in 1991 following 

the overthrow of the military regime of President Said Barre.43 A civil war ensued that led the 

country to chaos. A unity government formed in 2000. However, two northern regions, Somaliland 

and Puntland, became autonomous regions. The Al-Shahab group benefited from the breakdown 

of law and order during this time to deeply entrench itself in Somalia. In 2006, African Union 

 41 “Vanishing Point Criminality, Corruption, and the Devastation of Tanzania’s Elephants,” Environmental

Investigation Agency, November 2014. Accessed June 6, 2016. https://eia-international.org/wp-content/uploads/EIAVanishing-Point-lo-res1.pdf. 42 Ibid. 43 “Somalia Country Profile,” BBC World, February 4, 2016. Accessed June 5, 2016.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14094503.
26

forces intervened to neutralize Al-Shahab, a group allied with Al-Qaeda in Africa. Although the 

Kenyan military was tasked to eliminate Al-Shahab, the military started developing stakes in the 

same smuggling networks that financed the operations of the Al-Shahab group.44 In order to 

sustain itself financially, Al-Shahab imposed taxation on the export of charcoal, which has high 

consumption in the Middle East. Also, smugglers make profits of US$400 million per annum by 

smuggling sugar into Kenya via the Kismayo port.45 In 2012, the Kenyan military crushed AlShahab and took control of the Kismayo port, but to the dismay of many experts, it has been unable 

to stem the illicit trafficking of sugar and charcoal. It has been alleged that the Kenyan army, in 

collusion with Al-Shahab and Jubaland authorities (in charge of the Kismayo port), operates the 

smuggling racket out of the port of Kismayo. The smuggling of sugar is encouraged by the high 

tariff rate on the import of sugar imposed by the Kenyan government intended to protect the local 

industry. According to one report, around 230 trucks carry sugar from Kismayo each week.46

Moreover, the proximity of Kismayo to Ethiopia and Kenya makes it a lucrative port for smuggling 

of arms, narcotics, charcoal, and sugar. The United Nations Security Council banned the export of 

charcoal from Somalia, yet the trade is flourishing. UN investigators have reported that 1 million 

sacks of charcoal worth US$14-$15 million are exported every month.47 

Additionally, there has been a historic smuggling pathway between Djibouti and Yemen. In the 

1970s, liquor smuggling was rampant between Djibouti and the port of Mocha in Yemen. The 

price of liquor increases as it is smuggled further inland in Yemen to cities such as Taiz and Sana’a. 

This smuggling route is now also being used by refugees fleeing the Yemeni civil war between 

government forces and Houti rebels. Bombing by the Saudi Arabia-led alliance has further 

deteriorated living conditions in Yemen, thus, forcing people to seek refuge in Djibouti. The 

refugees sail across the Bab-el-Mandeb strait to Obock in Djibouti while smugglers continue to 

use the historic smuggling route from Obock to Mocha.48

4.1.3 India and Pakistan

With a coastline approximately 7,000 km long, India also has been the epicenter of smuggling 

carried out via dhows. Historically, the major Indian states affected by illegal trade have been 

Gujarat and Maharashtra. These states share a coastline of 2,320 km (720 km in Mumbai and 1600 

km in and Gujarat). It was by dhows that Indians migrated to the East African countries in large 

numbers at the end of the nineteenth century. In addition to providing labor in colonized Africa, 

they also gave an impetus for trade particularly between Gujarat and East African countries. Apart 

from trade, during different eras smugglers have profiteered from smuggling of gold, ivory, 

cigarettes, wood, arms, and narcotics to and from India. Even precursors for chemicals have been 

smuggled to the Middle East, most probably because of the demand of the booming economy in 

 44 “The Kenyan army is Accused of Running a Sugar-Smuggling Racket with Somali Terrorists,” The Economist,

Nov 23, 2015. Accessed July 4, 2016. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21678914-armydenies-splitting-profits-400m-smuggling-industry-al-qaedas. 45 Ibid. 46 Ibid. 47 Ibid. 48 Rachel Savage and Mohammed Ali Kalfood, “All Roads Lead to Djibouti as Refugees Flee Yemen Even as

Migrants Head There,” The Guardian, May 23, 2016. Accessed June 05, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/globaldevelopment/2016/may/23/all-roads-djibouti-refugees-flee-yemen-civil-war-migrants-head-there.
27

that region.49 Considering the fact that the distance between India’s western coast and the Middle 

East is less than 2,000 km, the trade between them should not come as a surprise.

After its independence in 1947, India closed its economy to the world and the import of gold was 

banned. Gold has traditional and financial importance in Indian culture. Not only it is the preferred 

choice of metal for wedding adornments, but also people prefer to have their savings in gold rather 

than cash. This demand for gold led to smuggling from the Middle East to India’s western coast 

on dhows called Padaos.

50 In addition to gold, ivory was also smuggled into India because of its 

religious value. Ivory was smuggled from East African countries in large quantities to the western 

Indian coast. In South India, particularly in the state of Kerala, the possession of ivory is considered 

a symbol of prestige and prosperity. 

The modus operandi of smuggling by dhow is the same now as it was in past centuries. The dhows, 

instead of sailing to India’s coast, remain in the international waters and transfer the smuggled 

goods to local boats that then carry those goods to the shore. Currently, there are 350 registered 

dhows in the state of Gujarat providing direct employment to approximately 10,000 people. While 

125 boats are operated from Kutch, a border town with Pakistan, others are based in the coastal 

port towns of Porbandar, Veraval, and Jamnagar.51 The important coastal towns that are associated 

with smuggling in Gujarat are Kandla, Gulf of Kutch, Porbandar, Veraval, Jamnagar, and Surat. 

In Karnataka, ports associated with smuggling are Mangalore, Ullal, Malpe and Karwar. In 

Maharashtra, the Shekadi coast in the town of Raigad and Mumbai are favored by smugglers. 

Kandla is also famous for being smuggling friendly. For example, in 2011, Indian customs and 

intelligence officials unearthed racketeers who were involved in smuggling of around 15 tons of 

red sandalwood worth Indian Rs. 22 crore (US$7.3 million) in the international market.52 In March 

2016, agencies of the Indian Intelligence Bureau and Rajasthan Police’s Anti-Terrorism Squad 

captured a smuggling gang involved in trafficking 31 tons of beryl to China.53 Beryl is a mineral 

containing beryllium, a metal that is used in nuclear power plants, high-speed aircraft, missiles, 

spacecraft, and communication satellites. It was also reported in October 2015 that the same 

criminals smuggled 20 tons of beryl to Hong Kong via Kandla port.54 

On New Year’s Eve in 2015, the Indian Coast Guard sank a Pakistani dhow suspected of being 

involved in smuggling off the coast of Porbander, Gujarat.55 Initially, the Indian intelligence 

 49 Pushpita Das, “Coastal Security: The Indian Experience,” Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, September

2013, page 10. Accessed June 4, 2016. http://www.idsa.in/system/files/Monograph22.pdf. 50 Martin, Esmond Bradley. "The Geography of Present-Day Smuggling in the Western Indian Ocean: The Case of

the Dhow." The Great Circle, Volume 1, Number 2 (1979), page 25. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41562293. 51 Rupang Bhatt, “Pirates Threat: Gujarat Dhows Not Allowed to Sail Beyond Salalah,” Desh Gujarat, February 23,

2012. Accessed May 25, 2016. http://deshgujarat.com/2012/02/23/pirates-threat-gujarat-dhows-not-allowed-to-sailbeyond-salalah/. 52 Neel Shah, “Kandla Port is Infamous Corridor,” The Afternoon Despatch and Courier, September 3, 2011.

Accessed June 4, 2016. http://afternoondc.in/city-news/kandla-port-is-infamous-corridor/article_33797. 53 Anil Sasi, “Atomic Material Smuggling Racket Busted, Rajasthan ATS Arrests 6,” Updated March 21, 2016.

Accessed June 5, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/atomic-material-smuggling-racketbusted-rajasthan-ats-arrests-six/. 54 Ibid. 55 “BJP Hails Indian Coast Guard for Averting 26/11 Like Terror Attack, Says It Reflects Frustration of Pakistan,”

The Indian Express, January 3, 2015. Accessed June 5, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/bjphails-indian-coast-guard-for-averting-2611-like-terror-attack-says-it-reflects-frustration-of-pakistan/.
28

agencies reported that the boat belonged to terrorists who were trying to attack India along the 

lines of the Mumbai 2008 attacks.56 However, news reports challenged these assertions and noted 

that they were simply petty smugglers trying to ferry in liquor and drugs from the Pakistani port 

of Keti Bandar.57

The Indian state of Maharashtra also has had its fair share of security lapses. There are 100 small 

boats/dhows, which are registered with the shipping ministry's Mercantile Marine Department 

(MMD) in Mumbai. However, the coastal authorities are not aware of the exact locations, owners, 

crews, maritime routes, or mercantile activity of the boats. In 2013, the Indian Coast Guard during 

a three-month exercise failed to locate these Indian boats.58 The bureaucrats at the MMD are of 

the view that these boats no longer exist. During the same exercise, it was revealed that only one 

small boat had the mandatory security identification equipment, the Automatic Identification 

System (AIS).59 The use of AIS is indispensable in addressing security gaps on the Indian 

coastline. AIS could help improve security by identifying different small vessels in the seas using 

their unique credentials. 

There are approximately 200 minor ports in India that are not regularized and are usually used by 

local fishing communities (Table 2):

Table 2. Table Minor Ports in India by Region60

Indian States Number of Minor Ports

Gujarat 41

Maharashtra 53

Karnataka 10

Goa 5

Kerala 13

Tamil Nadu 15

By comparison, Pakistan has a 1,046 km coast that stretches from the Iranian border in the west to 

Sir Creek in the Rann of Kutch (a disputed boundary creek that it shares with India). To 

comprehend Pakistan’s maritime challenges, its coast can be divided into two parts: the Makran 

coast to the west, and the Sindh coast to the east. The Makran coast holds strategic importance in 

terms of geo-politics and economy. This barren and rugged coastal region is punctuated by the 

small towns of Omara, Pasni, and Gwadar. 

 56 Praveen Sami, “Doubts Mount Over India’s Claims of Destroying ‘Terror Boat’ from Pakistan,” The Indian

Express, January 3, 2015. Accessed June 5, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/little-evidenceof-terror-link-may-have-been-petty-smugglers/. 57 Ibid. 58 “‘Non Existent Boats’ Pose Real Threat to National Security,” News Bharti, 16 May 2013. Accessed June 5,

2016. http://www.newsbharati.com/Encyc/2013/5/16/-Non-Existent-boats-pose-real-threat-to-NationalSecurity#.V2CR_PkrK70. 59 Ibid. 60 G.S. Dwarakish, Geetha Kuntoji, Subba Rao, International Conference on Water Resources, Coastal and Ocean

Engineering (ICWRCOE'15), “A Review on Development of Minor Ports to Improve the Economy of Developing

Country,” Aquatic Procedia, Volume 4, 2015, pages 256-263, ISSN 2214-241X.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.035

(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214241X1500036X).
29

Gwadar until 1958 was a territory of Oman and many residents of this town now hold dual 

nationality. This enabled them to trade in the Persian Gulf without any legal limitations. Since it 

is an old fishing town, most of the dhows are constructed in Gwadar. The mariners of the coastal 

region of Baluchistan still follow the Arabian tradition of sailing on the new dhows on the first and 

fifteenth days of the moon cycles.61 Their major subsistence is fishing; however, the economy of 

these fishing communities is being affected by the deep-sea fishing by large foreign trawlers. In 

2001, Pakistan implemented its deep-sea fishing policy, which envisaged enhancing foreign 

exchange earned by relaxing regulations for fishing trawlers. Although this increased revenues, it 

also led to the paucity of fishing opportunities for the local fishermen. According to reports, the 

daily catch of the fishermen has decreased by 70 to 80 percent. If the destruction of fishing 

opportunities continues, the fishermen will have no option other than to look for new employment 

opportunities, such as smuggling. Also, criminal and terrorist elements can tap into the knowledge 

and expertise of these disgruntled fishermen. 

Pakistan is a point of origin, destination, and transshipment for smugglers (Figure 6). The 

confluence of conflict and corruption makes it significantly easier for smugglers to use Pakistan 

as a conduit for smuggling. Smuggling cartels are involved in trafficking of narcotics, human, 

migrants, precursor chemicals, liquor, and arms. According to United Nations Office on Drugs and 

Crime (UNODC), 40 percent of the opium produced in Afghanistan is destined for Pakistan as a 

market and a transshipment point.62 There are opium-processing plants near the PakistanAfghanistan border that cater to drug demand in Pakistan and other parts of the world. Also, it is 

pertinent to mention that the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan are suffering from 

insurgencies and terrorism. These two provinces are the ideal breeding grounds for smuggling as 

the writ of the state is absent to a large extent.

Regarding terrorism, Pakistan has been unable to completely stop non-state actors operating from 

its soil against the neighboring states. Terrorists groups driven by the ideology of Jihad have used 

tactics ranging from suicide bombings to fidayeen gunmen attacks in India and Afghanistan. As 

mentioned in Section 3 of this study, terrorists have successfully used Pakistan’s coastal regions 

to launch an attack on the Indian city of Mumbai. 

 61 Kaplan, 72. 62 “Country Profile, Pakistan,” UNODC. Accessed June 5, 2016. https://www.unodc.org/pakistan/en/countryprofile.html.
30

Figure 6. Direct Smuggling Routes from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Africa (see Section 

3, footnotes 11-13 for references).

Dawood Ibrahim’s terrorist infrastructure stretches from Southeast Asia to East African countries. 

The major nodes in his terrorist and racketeering empire are Mumbai, Dubai, and Karachi (Figure 

7, Figure 8). His drug trade has consumers in Europe and has involved groups such as the 

Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). All this trade is carried out via small boats and dhows. 

The D-company smuggles drugs into India through the Rann of Kutch border from Pakistan. These 

drugs are then shipped in small boats/dhows from Mumbai to Africa and eventually make their 

way to Europe.63 The drugs are usually ferried on boats having livestock on board. On their way 

back from the Middle East and Africa, the dhows have layovers in Iran and Pakistan on the pretext 

of refueling. They use carcasses of animals stuffed with drugs in order to avoid maritime law 

enforcement agencies. The smell exuded by these carcasses and animal excreta serves to deter law 

enforcement organizations from boarding and carrying out thorough searches of these small 

boats.64

 63 “Dawood Inc.,” Outlook India, September 29, 1997. Accessed May 25, 2016.

http://www.outlookindia.com/magazine/story/dawood-inc/204303. 64 J. Dey, “Coastal Smuggling Gets Rich Again,” MiD DAY News, January 18, 2011. Accessed March 14, 2016. 

http://www.mid-day.com/articles/coastal-smuggling-gets-rich-again/109435. 
31

Figure 7. Smuggling Routes from Pakistan to Africa and the Middle East via Gujarat 

(India) (see footnotes 49-64 for references).

Figure 8. Smuggling Routes from Pakistan to Africa and the Middle East via Maharashtra 

(India) (see footnotes 49-64 for references).

33

5 POTENTIAL USE OF NUCLEAR AND RADIOLOGICAL 

MATERIAL BY TERRORISTS

The attacks in Brussels, Paris, Lahore, and Nice have shown that terrorists will not miss any chance 

to terrorize and kill innocent people. Every passing year, terrorists have tried to up the ante by 

adopting innovative methods to inflict maximum financial and human loss to nations around the 

world. There have been multiple reasons behind these terrorist attacks: ideological, apocalyptic, 

and political. And terrorists have reiterated their intent to use nuclear or radiological materials in 

their campaigns of terror. 

It is important to know the ideological motivations of terrorist groups and the evolving cooperation 

among such groups. This section will try to identify the motivations of the terrorists to smuggle 

nuclear and radiological materials. 

5.1 Ideologies and Motivations of the Major Terrorist Groups in South Asia

Analyses of South Asia reveal that there are five major types of terrorists groups operating in South 

Asia: 

• Sunni-Shia sectarian groups, present particularly in Pakistan.

• Indian-centric jihadi groups (Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba) that are carrying out 

attacks in India.

• Al Qaeda and its affiliates that espouse to spread Islam all over the world through violent 

means.

• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has attacked major organizations of the Pakistani 

state.

• The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Among these groups, ISIS and Al-Qaeda have shown considerable interest in acquiring nuclear or 

radiological material. Osama Bin Laden categorically called upon followers to use weapons of 

mass destruction to carry out their global agenda of Jihad. This call could inspire Al-Qaedaaffiliated groups to seek nuclear and radiological material from the black market.

In addition to Al-Qaeda, the TTP has been a major terrorist actor in Pakistan. Although the 

operational space enjoyed by TTP has shrunk to a large extent, it still has the capability to carry 

out attacks on major population centers and military installations. In the latest major terrorist attack 

carried out by TTP in September 2015 on a Pakistan Air Force camp, 29 people lost their lives.65

The TTP has employed every tactic in the book to kill military personnel and civilians. This is a 

reason that leads one to believe that they have the intention to employ nuclear and radiological 

material if they are able to acquire these materials. In fact, law enforcement agencies intercepted 

a communication between TTP members that it was planning to attack a nuclear facility in Dera 

Ghazi Khan, a city in Pakistan. The facility has uranium mining, milling, and hexafluoride 

 65 Mateen Haider, “Army Captain Among 29 Killed in TTP-Claimed Attack on PAf Camp in Peshawar,”

Dawn.com, September 2015. http://www.dawn.com/news/1207710.
34

conversion plants. Although the plan never materialized due to the efforts of security forces, it 

established that TTP is interested in attacking nuclear facilities.66

The Indian-centric jihadi groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, initially 

attacked Indian troops in Jammu and Kashmir, a disputed territory claimed by both India and 

Pakistan. With the passage of time, these groups have started changing their tactics by striking 

military and civilian targets in the heartland of India. Lashkar-e-Taiba is believed to be behind the 

2008 Mumbai attacks.67 These jihadi groups have shown an interest in and capability to target 

nuclear and radiological facilities. For example, David Headley, the Lashkar-e-Taiba mastermind 

behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks, admitted to videotaping the Bhaba Atomic Research Center 

(BARC) in Mumbai.68 Also, in 2007 a BARC facility in Srinagar came under attack from militants 

but fortunately, there was no damage to the facility.69 An attack on the Indian Air Force’s 

Pathankot airbase by six terrorists in January 2016 reflects the audacity of these groups. It took 

Indian security forces four days to neutralize the attackers.70 The handling of the security operation 

shows the importance of the physical protection systems required for such sensitive military and 

nuclear installations to detect and deter the jihadi groups from infiltrating India’s nuclear facilities. 

5.2 Terrorist Groups Operating in the Middle East

The creation of the Islamic State was announced by Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi in April 2006. 

Although he was killed by a U.S. airstrike two months after the announcement, he had already laid 

the ideological foundations of the Islamic State.71 According to Cole Bunzal of the Brookings 

Institution, “Zarqawi directly contributed to the Islamic State’s two most prominent ideological 

tenets: an extreme anti-Shi’ism and a focus on restoring the caliphate.”72 The Islamic State also 

has an apocalyptic vision. Muslims have always believed that the Mahdi (“Rightly Guided One”), 

a messianic figure, will appear near the end of times. Historically, Sunnis have believed that Mahdi 

is yet to appear. On the other hand, Shias believe that Mahdi is in occultation and will appear near 

the Day of Judgement. Both the sectarian groups, Sunnis and Shias, are of the view that Mahdi 

will create unity among Muslims and end fissures within the Islamic world. According to Sunnis, 

Mahdi will appear with Christ and together will take on the Dajjal (the "Anti-Christ”).

 66 Abdul Manan, “Taliban Threat: Nuclear Site in DG Khan Cordoned Off,” Tribune.com, September 6, 2012.

Accessed April 5, 2016. http://tribune.com.pk/story/432295/taliban-threat-nuclear-site-in-dg-khan-cordoned-off 67 “Profile: Lashkar-e-Taiba,” BBC World, May 3, 2010. Accessed October 28, 2016.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3181925.stm. 68 “Quick Read: 8 Things David Headley Told Us Today,” The New Indian Express, February 12, 2016. Accessed

March 15, 2016. http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Quick-Read-8-Things-David-Headley-Told-UsToday/2016/02/12/article3273523.ece. 69 T.S. Subramanian, “No damage to BARC Facility in Srinagar Attack,” The Hindu, July 27, 2007. Accessed

March 15, 2016. http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/no-damage-to-barc-facility-in-srinagarattack/article1880536.ece. 70 “Why India's Response to Pathankot Attack Was a Debacle,” BBC News, January 6, 2016. Accessed October 27,

2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35232599. 71 Bunzel, Cole. “From Paper State to Caliphate: The Ideology of the Islamic State,” Washington DC, Brookings

Institution, March 2015, page16. Accessed November 11, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-paperstate-to-caliphate-the-ideology-of-the-islamic-state/.. 72 Ibid, page 13.
35

ISIS has evoked this belief in Mahdism through its actions. It wants to achieve prophecies related 

to the coming of Mahdi. One such prophecy was realized when ISIS captured the town of Dabiq, 

a border town in Syria. This is an important town to Islamic eschatological beliefs, which state that 

a final battle will take place in Dabiq between Christians and Muslims near the Day of Judgement. 

Although there are many other terrorist groups that have declared themselves as a Caliphate, the 

apocalyptic ideology of ISIS should be a cause of worry for the world. 

According to the Federation of American Scientists, experts sort nuclear and radiological terrorism 

in four threat categories:73

• The possibility of non-state actors acquiring an intact nuclear weapon;

• The acquisition of enough fissile material to manufacture a bomb;

• The acquisition of radiological material to make a radiological dispersal device; and

• A possible attack or sabotage of a nuclear power plant or waste storage facility. 

In 2014, Iraq reported to the UN that ISIS has stolen 40 kg of Uranium compounds from a nuclear 

facility in Mosul.74 There have been serious apprehensions voiced by international security experts 

and politicians that there is an emerging threat that ISIS would like to employ nuclear and 

radiological weapons to inflict maximum financial and collateral damage. These fears were further 

aggravated when Belgian authorities discovered video footage of a Belgian nuclear scientist 

confiscated from the house of the suspect involved in the 2016 bombing of Brussels metro stations 

and airports.75

The transfer of knowledge and expertise is also a worrying issue. In 2012, two employees of a 

nuclear reactor in Belgium quit their jobs and went to Syria to fight for ISIS. One of them died in 

Syria and the other fighter was charged with terrorism in Belgium. In 2014, he was released from 

prison after serving his sentence. In December 2015, a private security consultancy company

estimated that more than 27,000 foreign fighters had left their countries for Iraq and Syria to fight 

for the ISIS.

76 The academic and professional background of these foreign fighters is unknown. 

Also, not only does ISIS hold large territory, but it ideologically inspires other “lone wolves” in 

western countries who might have access or know-how to use nuclear or radiological materials to 

make an improvised nuclear device or dirty bomb, respectively. 

 73 “Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism,” Federation of American Scientists. Accessed March 31, 2015.

https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-and-radiological-terrorism. 74 Michelle Nichols, “Exclusive: Iraq tells U.N. that ‘Terrorist Groups’ Seized Nuclear Materials,” Reuters, July 9,

2014. Accessed July 14, 2016. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-nuclear-idUSKBN0FE2KT20140709. 75 Alisa J. Rubin and Milan Scheurer, “Belgium Fears Nuclear Plants Are Vulnerable,” The New York Times,

March 25, 2016. Accessed June 19, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/26/world/europe/belgium-fears-nuclearplants-are-vulnerable.html?_r=0. 76 “Islamic State group: Crisis in Seven Charts,” BBC News, August 3, 2016. Accessed August 09, 2016.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034.
36

In the book, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism, experts William Potter and Charles Ferguson 

are of the view:77

While terrorists may have strategic reasons and tactical opportunities to pursue 

nuclear terrorism, few in fact have contemplated such an incident. Even fewer 

have ever attempted to develop a plan to pursue one of the types of nuclear 

terrorism, and only a handful has actually operationalized their interest. The 

factors influencing terrorists who decide not to resort to nuclear terrorism are 

numerous and can be divided into four groups: implementation challenges, 

philosophical or moral issues, response fears, and insufficient capability.

Given the barbarity reflected in the actions of ISIS, moral issues and response fears seem to be of 

no concern to them. Therefore, it is important to investigate the capability of ISIS. Currently, ISIS 

holds vast swath of land where there are radioactive sources present in nuclear compounds, 

universities, hospitals, oil fields, and other industries. For instance, in 2014, ISIS started using a 

lab in Mosul where 40 kg of uranium compounds were present.78 Although ISIS as an organization 

has not yet made any statement on acquisition of nuclear and radiological material, a smuggler in 

Moldova tried to convince an undercover agent, posing as an ISIS member, that he could supply 

Cesium-137 to ISIS.79

 77 Charles D. Ferguson, William C. Potter, and Amy Sands, “The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism,” New York,

Routledge, 2005, p.32. 78 “ISIS Bomb & Chemical Weapons ‘Research Center’ in Mosul Barely Targeted in US Strikes,” RT, April 2,

2016. Accessed October 7, 2016. https://www.rt.com/news/338086-isis-chemical-lab-mosul/. 79 Kathy Gilsinan, “Why Moldova may be the Scariest Country on Earth,” The Atlantic, October 8, 2015. Accessed

May 27, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/moldova-nuclear-weapons-isis/409456/.
37

6 INCIDENTS, MATERIALS OF CONCERN, AND NUCLEAR 

SECURITY CULTURE

A dirty bomb is considered to be the most likely threat from terrorists that aspire to obtain nuclear 

and radiological materials.80 At this point, no one can reliably estimate the capabilities of ISIS and 

other terrorist organizations, thus it is germane for our study to note the kind of radioactive sources 

present around the world that can potentially be used in a dirty bomb. 

Radioactive materials (sources) are found in equipment used for cancer treatment, oil well logging, 

carbon dating, and other research and scientific purposes. There are many radioactive sources, but 

most of them have short half-lives so they are not particularly suitable to be used in a dirty bomb. 

Next, there is the potential threat of using spent fuel in a terrorist attack. Although spent fuel from 

a commercial nuclear reactor may be too lethal to handle for a terrorist group, fuel from a research 

reactor may be able to be transported and according to experts, 

May be more vulnerable to terrorist use.... The research reactor spent fuel 

typically contains fewer fission products than does commercial power spent fuel 

because of the lower power levels in most reactors. Thus, research reactor spent 

fuel may not require as many special precautions to prevent a lethal dose. 

Because research reactor spent fuel assemblies tend to weigh much less than 

commercial assemblies, hauling away the former would be easier than the 

latter.81

In a study conducted by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Americium-241, 

Californium-252, Cesium-137, Cobalt-60, Iridium-192, Plutonium-238, and Strontium-90 are 

seven identified radioactive sources that could be attractive for nefarious uses (Table 3).

82

 80 Andrew Bieniawski, “We Need to Take the Dirty Bomb Threat Seriously,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, August 25,

2015. Accessed October 28, 2016. http://www.nti.org/newsroom/news/ntis-sen-sam-nunn-and-andrew-bieniawskipublish-washington-post-op-ed-isis-dirty-bomb/. 81 Ferguson, Charles D., William C. Potter, and Amy Sands, “The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism,” New York,

Routledge, 2005, page 261. 82 Charles D. Ferguson, Tahseen Kazi and Judith Perera, “Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security

Risks,” page 16, Report No. 11, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of

International Studies, January 2003. Accessed July 5, 2016. http://www.nonproliferation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/09/op11.pdf.
38

Table 3. Common Radioactive Sources Found in Industrial and Research Applications.

83

Many of these sources can be found in industrial and research applications, including in conflictridden countries in the Middle East and South Asia. Yemen, which has been struggling with civil 

war, the ever-present danger of Al-Qaeda in Arab Peninsula, and massive bombing by Saudi 

Arabia, has had radioactive sources including Cobalt-60, Iridirum-192, and Cesium-137 for 

industrial and research purposes since the 1960s.84

6.1 Incidents and Tracking

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains a database of nuclear and radioactive 

material considered out of regulatory control. The database logs the reported incidents of illicit 

trafficking, orphan radioactive sources, thefts, losses, and other unauthorized use of nuclear and 

radioactive materials (Figure 9, Figure 10, Figure 11). According to the IAEA:

As of 31 December 2015, the Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB) 

contained a total of 2,889 confirmed incidents reported by participating states. 

Of these 2,889 confirmed incidents, 454 incidents involved unauthorized 

possession and related criminal activities, 762 incidents involved reported theft 

or loss and 1,622 incidents involved other unauthorized activities and events. In 

the remaining 71 cases, the reported information was not sufficient to determine 

the category of incident.

85

 83 Ferguson, Charles, Tahseen Kazi, and Judith Perera, “Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security

Risks,” p. 16, Report No. 11, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International

Studies, January 2003. Accessed July 5, 2016. http://www.nonproliferation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/09/op11.pdf.\ 84 “There Are Radiation Sources Out There,” International Atomic Energy Agency. Accessed August 3, 2016.

http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/32/051/32051566.pdf. 85 IAEA Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB), “Incidents of Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material Out of

Regulatory Control,” 2016 Fact Sheet. https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf.
39

Figure 9. Confirmed Incidents Involving Unauthorized Possession and Related Criminal 

Activities, 1993- 2015.86

Figure 10. Confirmed Incidents Involving Theft or Loss, 1993-2015.87

 86 Source: IAEA Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB), “Incidents of Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material

Out of Regulatory Control,” 2016 Fact Sheet. https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf. 87 Ibid.
40

Figure 11. Incidents Involving Unauthorized Activities and Events, 1993-2015.

88

The IAEA report further mentions that there have been 13 incidents involving highly enriched 

uranium and 3 incidents each involving plutonium and plutonium-beryllium neutron sources. On 

some occasions, there were also attempts to smuggle such materials across international borders. 

The report mentions that most of the attempts have been made by amateurs who lacked the 

technical proficiency to handle such material, but in some instances, the traffickers showed ample 

expertise to attempt to smuggle radioactive material.

6.2 Thefts and Loses

Smuggling can be facilitated, sometimes to a large degree, with insider helpers who know the 

location of the radioactive sources present at the storage sites as well as the security measures and 

access details. It has also been reported to ITDB that the majority of the sources stolen were from 

university research labs or hospitals, confirming the assumption that due to lower security, such 

locations are more likely to be targeted by malicious actors. According to the ITDB report, there 

were three confirmed incidents of theft including both highly enriched uranium and plutonium 

neutron sources. The majority of industrial radiological sources that are reported stolen or lost are 

those used for non-destructive testing and for applications in construction and mining. The 

majority of such devices use relatively long-lived isotopes such as Iridium-192, Caesium-137, and 

Americium-241.89

 88 Ibid.

89 Ibid.
41

6.3 Other Incidents Involving Unauthorized Activities and Events

There are other incidents mentioned in the IAEA report suggesting there is a constant potential 

threat of nuclear and radioactive material falling into the hands of terrorists. According to the 

report, the majority of incidents involving “other unauthorized activities or events” fall into one of 

three categories: unauthorized disposal (e.g., radioactive sources entering the scrap metal 

industry), unauthorized shipment (e.g., scrap metals contaminated with radioactive material being 

shipped across international borders), and the discovery of radioactive material (e.g., uncontrolled 

radioactive sources).90 These incidents indicate that the security of nuclear and radioactive 

materials needs to be increased. The report explicitly mentions the increasing trend of scrap metal 

shipments having radiological materials from sealed sources shipped to junkyards across the world 

for recycling. The deficiency pointed out by the report is the lack of controlled nuclear and 

radiological waste disposal sites around the world. The majority of the Indian Ocean littoral states 

are developing countries; therefore, there are reasons to believe that there is a paucity of sites to 

handle, store, and properly dispose of nuclear and radiological wastes. 

6.4 The Variable Nuclear Security Culture in South Asia and the Middle East

An analytical report published by the CNS describes the variable reporting of nuclear and 

radiological incidents of theft and trafficking around the world (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Variable Nuclear Security Culture in the World (Source: CNS Trafficking Report 

2016).

In the past three years, CNS has logged 514 incidents of such material out of regulatory control. It 

is important to note that most of the incidents have been reported by states in North America and 

Europe due to a better and transparent self-reporting mechanism. On the other hand, there has been 

negligible reporting from states in South Asia, Africa, and Middle East, the regions within the 

scope of the report. There are three possible reasons for this inconsistent reporting around the 

 90 Ibid.
42

world: a) there have been hardly any incidents reported in the Indian Ocean littoral states, b) the 

governments in the region have weak regulatory mechanism that limits their ability to maintain 

and secure nuclear and radioactive material, or c) the governments have censored reporting of such 

incidents. 

In most of the states in South Asia and the Middle East, regulations are made and implemented by 

the relevant state competent authorities. The data in Figure 12 reflect a lack of robustness in all 

regions of the world except for North America, which has taken the topic to heart. The IAEA 

clearly emphasizes that each state has a pivotal role to play in creating a nuclear security culture 

in the organizations dealing with nuclear material and radioactive sources. In its Nuclear Security 

Series 7, the IAEA describes the role of the state in maintaining a rigorous nuclear security culture 

as follows:91

Security culture has three major components. The first concerns the policy that 

the state wishes to put into practice, in particular given the national and 

international contexts. The second is the organization introduced within each 

body concerned, particularly to apply the policy fixed by the state. In this 

component, a distinction must be made between what comes under the 

organization itself and what concerns its managers. The third component is the 

attitude adopted by the various individuals at all levels to implement this policy 

and to incorporate it into their work. 

The responsibility for the establishment, implementation, and maintenance of a 

nuclear security regime within a state rests entirely with that state. Hence, the 

state has the responsibility for establishing the legal and regulatory framework 

to foster an effective nuclear security culture. There may be several organizations 

within the State that have both responsibility for, and interest in, a nuclear 

security culture, e.g. the nuclear regulatory body, operating organizations of 

nuclear facilities, law enforcement authorities, the military, health ministries, 

intelligence organizations, emergency response authorities and public 

information officials. 

A culture is hard to either impose or cultivate, but it can be fostered through role 

models, training, positive reinforcement and systematized processes. These 

elements should be considered as the State develops or modifies its regulatory 

and policy documents.

Thus, the data shown in Figure 12 indicates that there is ample room for improvement in fostering 

a robust nuclear security culture in many states of the world, including in South Asia, where the 

emerging Centers of Excellence could make the region’s states leaders and examples of the 

concept.

 91 IAEA, “Nuclear Security Culture,” IAEA Nuclear Security Series 7, page 7-8, 2016. Accessed 7 Oct. 2016.

http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/7977/Nuclear-Security-Culture.
43

7 TECHNOLOGY AND METHODOLOGIES FOR DETECTING 

AND DETERRING MATERIALS OF CONCERN

The attacks of September 11 proved to be a catalyst in securing airports, ports, and other 

commercial activities across the world. Although many countries contributed to this effort, the 

United States spearheaded the effort to make sure that its own ports of entry are safe and secure. 

The U.S. leadership helped to produce results in the shape of the Container Security Initiative 

(CSI) and the Megaports Initiative to deter, detect, and interdict illicit trafficking in special nuclear 

and other radioactive materials at seaports across the world. CSI to date covers 58 major seaports 

around the world.92 The equipment being used includes Personal Radiation Detectors, Handheld 

Survey Meters, Radiation Isotope Identification Devices, and Radiation Portal Monitors. Taking a 

cue from the United States, every country needs to take prudent steps to secure its ports so that 

they can help to address the smuggling of nuclear and radiological materials. This section will 

suggest programs, methodologies, and technology that could be adopted by IOR littoral states to 

further secure their coastlines.

7.1 Global Water Way Watch

Under the program called “America’s Water Way Watch,” the U.S. Coast Guard encourages 

citizens residing on the coasts to report any suspicious activity. A global public outreach program 

could be initiated emulating the U.S. program by countries in the IOR. Since not every coast or 

creek can be fully protected by law enforcement authorities, involving local populations seems to 

be the best available option to help ensure that any untoward incident of terrorism or smuggling 

could be detected and averted. This public outreach program can also include reporting 

environmentally damaging activities on the coasts. The primary target audiences in South Asia 

and the Middle East for this type of program are fishing communities. Communities could be made 

aware of the hazardous effects of nuclear and radiological smuggling to human health. Since most 

of the countries will have issues with another country conducting awareness campaigns, a global 

effort could be overseen by United Nations. 

The UNODC is already operating in most regions of the world and has established field offices to 

stop small arms and light weapons and narcotics smuggling, and terrorism. As it depends on 

voluntary contributions, major world powers could pool resources to augment the operational 

capacity and capability of UNODC. Research and analytical work regarding smuggling nuclear 

and radiological material for UNODC could potentially be carried out by technically competent 

organizations such as the IAEA or the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security 

Administration (DOE/ NNSA). Since the IAEA is already cash-starved and under-resourced, other 

organizations may be a likely resource to conduct joint awareness programs with local law 

enforcement authorities. For example, NNSA is already involved in securing ports by 

implementing its Megaports Initiative. NNSA has also developed cordial working relationships 

with customs, port authorities, port operators, and other relevant institutions as it implemented its 

Megaports Initiative to secure ports in more than 40 countries around the world.

 

 92 “CSI: Container Security Initiative,” U.S Customs and Border Protection. Accessed October 25, 2016.

https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/ports-entry/cargo-security/csi/csi-brief.
44

7.2 Installation of Identification and Geo-Locating Devices on Smaller Vessels

The International Maritime Organization mandates that ships larger than 300 tons and all passenger 

ships install Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). AIS is an automatic tracking system that

identifies and geo-locates ships and shares this information with other ships, coastal base stations, 

and satellites. Singapore is the only country that requires the use of AIS transponders for every 

maritime vessel, even small vessels down to the size of jet skis. In the wake of the 2008 Mumbai 

attacks, the Indian Directorate General of Mercantile Marine Department made it compulsory to 

install AIS on all small vessels more than 20 meters long. It even asked the vessels to obtain a 

Maritime Mobile Service Identity (MMSI) number for AIS.93 Although it has not been successful 

in this initiative, India is on the right track for prioritizing maritime security. 

Other countries in the region should adopt this practice, as it will help to deter smugglers from 

using their boats in illicit activities. Pakistan can also benefit by following India’s footsteps since 

it is relying heavily on the success of Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 

(CPEC). According to Daniel Markey of the Center for Foreign Relations, “The China-Pakistan 

Economic Corridor (CPEC) is part development scheme, part strategic gambit.”94

In 2015, Pakistan and China formalized the CPEC after signing 51 agreements worth US$46 

billion. The economic corridor will connect Gwadar with China’s northwestern autonomous region 

of Xinjiang through a network of highways and roads. This corridor, in addition to bringing 

investments into Pakistan, will give China a land access route to the Indian Ocean. 

Pakistan is taking added security measures to make this project a success. It has already raised a 

Special Security Division headed by a two-star general to protect the CPEC. This division 

comprises regular army troops, special commandos, and civil armed forces.95 In addition to 

increasing physical security, Pakistan could also consider augmenting existing law enforcement 

capabilities with innovative solutions such as creating a database of small boats and involving local 

communities in law enforcement activities. 

7.3 Small Vessel Voluntary Reporting System

In May 2010, U.S. Customs and Border Protection introduced a mechanism where small vessels 

voluntarily submit reports about their foreign travels, routes, and date of arrival in the United Sates. 

This aids in dedicating resources to identify threats. Since the majority of the people in the Indian 

Ocean littoral states have limited access to technology, such an online system of reporting is not 

currently a viable option. 

In South Asia, the local and the district officials need to be incorporated into this system so that a 

voluntary reporting mechanism can be made effective and efficient. The local and district officials 

 93 “‘Non Existent’ Boats Pose Real Threat to National Security,” News Bharti, May 16, 2013. Accessed June 4,

2016. http://www.newsbharati.com/Encyc/2013/5/16/-Non-Existent-boats-pose-real-threat-to-NationalSecurity#.V3L6fPkrK71. 94 Daniel S. Markey and James West, “Behind China’s Gambit in Pakistan,” Council for Foreign Relations, May 12,

2016. Accessed May 21, 2016. http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/behind-chinas-gambit-pakistan/p37855. 95 Raza Khan, “15,000 Troops of Special Security Division to Protect CPEC Projects, Chinese Nationals,” Dawn

News, August 12, 2016. Accessed October 25, 2016. https://www.dawn.com/news/1277182.
45

of every coastal community can be asked to voluntarily report to the local district administration 

their foreign travels, routes, and date of arrival. The district administration office would in turn 

exchange this information with the local maritime security agency, which can then log this data 

into a central database. The local small vessel operators can be incentivized to report their routes 

by stating that the information will help the coast guard rescue them in case of bad weather or 

other emergency. 

7.4 Capacity Building of Coast Guards and Maritime Security Agency

In an effort to block all potential pathways to smuggling nuclear and radiological materials, there 

is a dire need to build the capacity of IOR littoral states’ coast guards and maritime security 

agencies to interdict such materials on the high seas and in coastal waters. This effort can emulate 

the West Coast Maritime radiation detection project formulated in the United States to enhance 

the ability of federal, state, local, and tribal agencies to detect and interdict nuclear and radiological 

materials, particularly small vessels.96 In the initial phase, the IOR coast guards and maritime 

security agencies can be given awareness trainings about the hazards of nuclear and radiological 

materials. Once they are able to absorb the potential dangers of illicit smuggling and handling of 

these materials, they could be provided with training and essential equipment such as portable 

radiation detectors, portal monitors, and personal dosimeters. Additionally, existing patrolling 

boats can be improved by installing boat-mounted nuclear and radiological detection equipment. 

This proposal requires a cooperative mechanism with coast guards and maritime law enforcement 

agencies to make this effort sustainable in the long term. Maritime law enforcement agencies can 

be trained in the Centers of Excellence of Nuclear Security in various countries in South and East 

Asia. Those countries in the Middle East and East Africa that do not currently have the requisite 

technical capability could send their personnel to be trained in the Centers of Excellence of host 

countries such as Pakistan, India, China, and Japan. Trainers from these countries, the IAEA, and 

international subject matter experts could also deliver in-country trainings to requesting countries. 

7.5 Shared Indian Ocean Littoral States Surveillance Systems

An integrated database could be developed that would aid the exchange of real-time data about 

suspicious small boats operating in the Indian Ocean. Each participating country would be able to 

update its own data but would not be able to make changes to other countries’ data. Also, 

suspicious vessels and those previously involved in smuggling attempts can be earmarked for extra 

vetting or surveillance. Since ideally, every small boat would have an AIS, it could be easier to 

update the database. NNSA and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could jointly lead this 

initiative by bringing Indian Ocean littoral states on a joint platform. Of course, countries’ political 

sensitivities would have to be considered before beginning such a project. 

7.6 Establishment of Maritime Risk Reduction Centers

States’ navies are the only armed military forces that cooperate during peacetime. This peacetime 

cooperation can help build up trust that later on can be translated into close cooperation during 

different emergency situations. For example, after the 2004 Tsunami in South East Asia, the navies 

 96 “DHS Announces West Coast Maritime Radiation Detection Project,” American City and County, September 6,

2007. Accessed August 1, 2016. http://americancityandcounty.com/security/homeland/radiation-detection-project.
46

of various countries closely collaborated to carry out search and rescue operations and other 

disaster management activities. Also, as mentioned in this paper, navies are part of a multinational 

task forces such as the Combined Maritime Forces that are conducting anti-piracy and counter 

terrorism operations in the Indian Ocean. 

This cooperation can also be institutionalized bilaterally. The two major countries that will highly 

benefit from such cooperation in the maritime domain are India and Pakistan. Currently, there are 

two hot lines between India and Pakistan: one between the Foreign Ministers and the second 

between the Directors General of Military Operations. Additional hotlines or other means of 

communication between India and Pakistan could possibly help avert another Mumbai 2008 style 

attack if Pakistani and Indian naval forces could efficiently and quickly interact with each other 

on impending threats. 

As far back as 2000, Ayesha Siddiqa, in her paper titled “Maritime Cooperation between India 

and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea” introduced the concept of the Maritime Risk Reduction 

Center. She says,

97

The two navies could directly interact with each other on less sensitive issues 

like search and rescue operations. Initially, joint exercises could be conducted to 

train personnel for such operations. The navies could consider exchanging port 

visits and visits of coast guard and naval officers. This would be done through 

noncombatant vessels. A permanent forum such as a ‘Commanders Conference’

may also be established at this stage with participation from the foreign offices. 

This forum could review the state of communication and discuss matters of 

common interest. Curbing smuggling at sea is another area where the two navies 

can cooperate. The Indian and Pakistan navies could agree on monitoring 

specified areas for anti-smuggling operations. Information could be exchanged 

through the two MRRCs. If a suspect vessel is not apprehended by a navy or 

coast guard of one country the information could be passed onto the other 

country’s MRRC for appropriate action. This would allow the various agencies 

to integrate efforts to curb smuggling.

7.7 Encouraging States to Establish a Nuclear Detection Architecture

It is imperative for countries to develop a nuclear detection architecture to ensure that there is 

radiation portal monitoring at major ports of entry into a country. Also, equipping law enforcement 

personnel with basic hand-held radioactive detection equipment should be a priority. This would 

not only bolster the capability of law enforcement personnel but also deter criminals from nuclear 

and radioactive smuggling. Criminals who are not ideologically motivated will avoid being caught 

and facing prison time if they know that law enforcement personnel have the requisite technical 

capability to detect and apprehend them. Also, countries that have nuclear programs such as the 

UAE, Iran, Iraq, India, and Pakistan should develop a nuclear forensics capability. According to 

 97 Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha, “Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea,”

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper, No. 31, 2000, Albuquerque, NM, Cooperative Monitoring Center,

Sandia National Laboratories. http://www.sandia.gov/cooperative-monitoring-center/_assets/documents/sand98-

050518.pdf.
47

the IAEA, “Nuclear forensics is the analysis of intercepted illicit nuclear or radioactive material 

and any associated material to provide evidence for nuclear attribution. The goal of nuclear 

analysis is to identify forensic indicators in interdicted nuclear and radiological samples or the 

surrounding environment, e.g., the container or transport vehicle.”98 If countries have the 

capability to analyze and trace the source of smuggled nuclear and radioactive material, then they 

can help to stop the pilferage of such materials and catch any insider who is helping smugglers. 

7.8 Use of Crisis/Crime Informatics Software

There are no "turnkey” crowdsourcing websites or software currently in use for detecting nuclear 

or radiological trafficking. However, there have been a number of systems designed by private 

organizations, law enforcement agencies, or governments to map crimes in particular regions. 

These crime-mapping systems are a good place to start in exploring the potential application of 

crowdsourcing in anti-nuclear smuggling efforts. 

An interesting example is systems designed to map information for first responders in support of 

humanitarian aid/disaster relief operations in regions affected by natural or human-made disasters. 

Known as "crisis mapping," these systems often utilize a form of crowdsourcing called "mobile" 

or "ubiquitous" crowdsourcing, where data is either submitted by participants via cell phones and 

other mobile devices, or collected by more passive means (e.g., pulling GPS data from a device). 

The participation of coastal communities is imperative for the successful implementation of such 

crowdsourcing systems. Since most of these communities are not affluent, they can be attracted to 

participate using financial incentives or in-kind offerings such as mobile device “minutes” or 

“data.” Also, one of the most daunting challenges in crowdsourcing systems is the reliability of 

the information collected from myriad sources, which in some cases might have their own vested 

interests in intentionally misleading the authorities. In such a scenario, patterns will emerge that 

would help identify individuals who are trying to mislead the authorities. 

7.9 Pivotal Role of Centers of Excellence for Nuclear Security

Although, it has become a cliché to mention Centers of Excellence for Nuclear Security in the 

nonproliferation field, the importance of such centers cannot be emphasized enough. First 

responders can be trained by experts at these centers and bi-annual refresher courses can be 

arranged. Moreover, a research group dedicated to investigate and review cases of potential nuclear 

and radiological smuggling can be developed at these Centers of Excellence.

 98 “Nuclear Forensics Technical Support,” IAEA Nuclear Security Series No. 2. Accessed April 21, 2015. 

http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1241_web.pdf.

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8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summing up, it can be ascertained from this study that commerce and smuggling follow the 

traditional routes of trade in the IOR. The grave concern is that terrorists and criminals have 

piggybacked on these trade routes to generate funds for their unlawful activities. The major 

terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS and its affiliates could also possibly use these 

smuggling routes to traffic nuclear and radiological materials. In addition to these groups, rogue 

states have used the Indian Ocean as a transit point to fund and aid insurgents with small arms and 

light weapons. This study purports that adequate detection apparatus and methodologies in the 

IOR can deter the proliferation of nuclear and radiological materials and technology by state and 

non-state actors. Therefore, it is imperative for global security and international peace to develop 

and implement detection mechanisms, raise awareness, and increase collaboration with IOR states. 

TO summarize, the recommendations for detection, deterrence, and collaboration in Section 7 of 

this report include:

• Global Water Way Watch

• Installation of Identification and Geo-Locating Devices on Smaller Vessels

• Small Vessel Voluntary Reporting System 

• Capacity Building of Coast Guards and Maritime Security Agency

• Shared Indian Ocean Littoral States Surveillance Systems 

• Establishment of Maritime Risk Reduction Centers

• Encouraging States to Establish a Nuclear Detection Architecture

• Pivotal Role of Centers of Excellence for Nuclear Security

• Use of Crisis/Crime Informatics Software

Through these recommendations, regional states and global powers can collaborate to implement 

a maritime nuclear detection architecture. The following section stipulates ideas to further make 

this architecture attainable and sustainable by suggesting potential short- and long-term future 

projects. These projects could help to lay a firm platform for developed and developing countries 

to stem potential nuclear and radiological smuggling in the IOR.

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9 POTENTIAL NEAR-TERM AND LONGER-TERM PROJECT

IDEAS

This section suggests a number of follow-up project ideas to ensure that the threat of nuclear and 

radiological smuggling from minor ports via small vessels is accounted for when designing 

maritime nuclear detection architecture.

9.1 Short Term

• Reach out to opinion makers to discuss the threat of maritime nuclear and radiological 

smuggling, such as in Track-2 dialogues.

• Conduct a comparative study of the capabilities, experiences, and techniques of the U.S.

Coast Guard and coast guards in the IOR to evaluate and recommend potential areas of 

cooperation.

• Conduct an in-depth analysis of the links between land and maritime smuggling and potential 

terrorist use of these routes.

• Conduct a thorough assessment of current threats, capabilities, and requirements of IOR 

coast guards and states in order to detect and deter nuclear and radiological smuggling.

• Hold table-top exercises among active and retired coast guard personnel, naval officers, and 

subject matter experts to formulate solutions for countering nuclear smuggling.

9.2 Longer Term

• Encourage international maritime security exercises between coast guards of the IOR states, 

including interdiction procedures and sharing of best practices.

• Develop close collaboration with regional and international Centers of Excellence for 

Nuclear Security for sharing best practices and tracking smuggling activities in littoral states 

of the IOR.

• Engage maritime first responders and train them on radiation detection equipment.

• Engage fishing communities and involve them in Water Way Watch program.

9.3 Final Thoughts

In conclusion, terrorists have started adopting novel ideas to inflict maximum human and financial 

loss, including by sea. The mounting challenge to counter such threats in the maritime realm 

necessitates a concerted, collaborative, and innovative effort by states. Global powers that have 

the required financial and technical wherewithal and states that may not have this wherewithal are 

encouraged to work together to implement and integrate a global maritime security architecture to 

further ensure global peace and security. 
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10 DISTRIBUTION

1 MS0899 Technical Library 9536 (electronic copy)

1 MS1371 J. David Betsill 6832

1 MS1371 Adriane Littlefield 6832

1 MS1371 Tina Hernandez 6832

1 MS1377 Gregory C. Stihel 6810

1 MS1377 Justin Weaver 6813

1 MS1393 Paul A. Trask 6813

1 MS1377 Kimberlyn C. Mousseau 6813

2 MS1378 CMC Visiting Research Scholars Library c/o Suzanne Cordova 4256
53