ai4data/datause-dataset-rechunked huggingface dataset:
_Note:_ Figure 4 shows the main treatment coefficients using the baseline estimation strategy (with DHS individuallevel data; see table 4 for more information), but with different distance cutoffs (10 km, 20 km, 30 km, 40 km, and
50 km). *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.

The results above suggest substantial heterogeneity in outcomes and highlights the importance

to explore spatial heterogeneity in the results. In the following sections we explore plausible

explanations for these outcomes.

**5.4 Difference-in-differences at the district level**

The results for female employment in the district-level analysis are shown in table 6.

Agricultural work decreases for women in mining districts and manual work increases.

Following from this, the likelihood that a woman is working year-round increases. [11] This is

similar to what we saw in the individual-level regressions, but the results are now statistically

significant.

**Table 6 Effects of mine opening at the district level on female employment**

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

not agri- service profess- manual earns works

working culture or sales ional work cash all year

Active district 0.019 -0.085** 0.034 -0.018** 0.050** -0.021 0.054*
(0.027) (0.042) (0.030) (0.008) (0.020) (0.049) (0.032)

---
[11] Working year-round is derived from a question if the woman works occasionally, all year or seasonally.
In the model, shocks were calibrated using data for 2022-2024. In the case of 2022, we adjusted the data to reflect refugee arrivals after February, fixing their share at roughly 2.6 percent of the population per PESEL registry figures. We then calibrated refugee employment to match the NBP’s 2022 survey (NBP, 2024), the UNHCR’s 2023 MSNA, and the 2024 SEIS survey - implying their employment share rose from 1.5 percent to 2.4 percent of total employment in Poland. To keep the regional labour supply balance, equivalent offsets were applied in the broader Eastern Europe aggregate. [35] Furthermore, it was assumed that refugees have higher spending needs and thus a lower saving rate than other earners in Poland for 2022 and 2023. Moreover, according to National Bank of Ukraine data, the consumption of Ukrainian refugees has been partially financed by savings in Ukrainian banks in 2022 and 2023, which was modelled as them having a negative saving rate, while being offset by lowering investment levels in Eastern Europe. [36] By 2024, it was assumed that their situation on the labour market had stabilised and that there had been no further changes in their savings.

---
[35] Aggregate region in the D.Climate model, that consists of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
[36] In other words, it was assumed that money that would be spent e.g. through credit action for investments in Eastern Europe were spent for consumption in Poland.
First, the employment rate of Polish citizens has been growing since the Ukrainian refugee influx, while the unemployment rate has been falling. This is particularly evident among women, who make up the majority of refugees. The employment rate for women aged 20-64 has grown consistently from 68.2% in Q2 2021 to 70.2% in Q2 2022, 71.7% in Q2 2023, and 72.2% in Q2 2024 (see Chart 26). The unemployment rate for women aged 20-64 has consistently fallen, from 3.5% in Q2 2021 to 3.0% in Q2 2022, 2.6% in both Q2 2023 and Q2 2024.
unallocated), the gap in social contributions bases towards Polish citizens narrows.
The largest group (16%) is positioned between 90% and 100% of Polish citizens (median 93%). This is an improvement over two years, when the majority (13%) situated between only 80% and 90% (median 82%). [12]

---
[12] Unfortunately, the data is available in a format that is not suitable for econometric modelling and thus these are only comparisons between thousands of employee
In Brazil, refugees can choose between accessing the asylum system or applying for a residency
as a complementary form of protection. Both options ensure freedom of movement, access to
formal employment, education, healthcare, and social assistance. However, only those who apply
for asylum are explicitly safeguarded against refoulement, eligible to obtain travel documents,
granted expedite access to naturalization, and exempt from presenting documents from their
country of origin in various civil procedures. These additional safeguards significantly ease their
integration into Brazilian society.

Despite an overall favorable environment, the proportion of those living below the national
poverty line is still considerable, especially if compared with host communities (40% vs 30%). [1]
Research conducted by UNHCR and other institutions indicates that refugees in Brazil experience

_1_ _[https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/?Text=&Goal=10&Target=10.7](https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/?Text=&Goal=10&Target=10.7)_

UNHCR / October, 2024 2
It is also important to highlight that there were slight differences in the questionnaire across countries. Not all questions were consistently included in all country-level surveys, and some answer options were individually adjusted.

Lastly, the survey was conducted during the summer months, coinciding with both host country and Ukraine school holidays. This period often sees many households temporarily visiting Ukraine, which impacted the accessibility of households and posed challenges in meeting targets, particularly in certain countries and geographic locations.

**15**
rates have grown, and unemployment rates have fallen. Second, poviats in which the employment share of Ukrainian refugees has grown by 1 percentage point, experienced higher by 0.5 percentage point Polish citizens employment rates, and 0.3 percentage point lower unemployment rates. Third, there is no evidence of lowered wages; in fact, the limited available data suggests that Ukrainian refugees may have caused higher wage growth in poviats to which they have moved. These are common findings in the scientific literature quoted in the previous section, that as immigrants enter the labour market, native workers tend to specialise in higher-value, complementary tasks.
This is evident in Polish workers moving to more attractive occupational groups. This constitutes a positive productivity shock, counterbalancing labour market pressures.
Regional protection monitoring harmonization outcomes

In line with the outcomes of the Regional IDP Stocktaking held on 25 February 2022, the Regional Bureau for
Southern Africa undertook an ambitious project to harmonize the protection monitoring activities conducted in the
region. The envisioned regional harmonization aims to enable an environment that increases persons we serve
empowerment, inclusion, and protection while strengthening accountability and efficiency in humanitarian and
development programs. The regional protection monitoring harmonization focuses to:

§ **Set common definitions of the incident, minimum standards, and objectives of the protection**

**monitoring.**
§ **Standardize questionnaires to collect data but be flexible enough for field operations to add and amend**

**questions depending on the context and needs.**
§ **Develop reporting/product templates with a standard design and branding for UNHCR.**
§ **Develop a narrative to explain externally why and how UNHCR does protection monitoring and identify**

**common indicators for regional reporting.**
Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on SEIS survey, NBP (2024) survey. Monthly GUS median wage in the general economy has been recalculated to reflect the specific time periods of SEIS UNHCR and NBP (2024) surveys.

Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on Eurostat Labour Force Survey data SEIS UNHCR survey conducted in May and June 2024. For Polish citizens reference period is Q2 2024.

Polish citizens Ukrainian refugees

**The wages of Ukrainian refugees are**

**higher for men than women, but the**

**gap is not wider than in the economy**

**as a whole.** The median net wage of
female Ukrainian refugees is 6% lower than in the male group (compared to 7% in the economy as a whole), however, the gap may be different due to the fact that there are fewer men in the Ukrainian refugee population.

13 Children in Ukraine start school at 6 years of age, while in Poland at 7. School system lasts for 11 years in Ukraine and 12 years in Poland. After recent reform, Ukrainian children who started school in or after 2018 will receive 12 years of schooling.
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE problems, and in each age group females reporting more problems than males, except among children under the age of 11, where boys reported slightly more problems than girls.

These overall upward trends underscore that, even in the third year of the Ukraine response, mental health and psychosocial needs remain a significant and growing challenge requiring sustained support, attention, and increased financing to ensure adequate care and resources are available.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WITH MENTAL HEALTH OR**

**PSYCHOSOCIAL PROBLEMS BY AGE GROUP AND GENDER**

Female Male

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO REPORT EXPERIENCING MENTAL**

**HEALTH AND PSYCHOSOCIAL PROBLEMS AND TRIED TO**

**ACCESS SUPPORT BY COUNTRY**

46% 58% 57% 51% 50% 48% 45% 43% 35% 34% 32% Regional Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Czechia Estonia Bulgaria Moldova Romania Slovakia 5-11 12-17 18-34 35-59 60+ years old (N=17,972)

### **Access to Mental** **Health and** **Psychosocial** **Support**
The districts are small, and some mines are located in border regions. We thus expect there to

be spillovers across district borders. For example, a mine can change demand for labor,

agricultural produce, and services across the district border, and induce reallocation of work

across districts. We explore neighbor spillovers by estimating the following equation:

𝑌���  - 𝛽�𝑔𝑜𝑙𝑑_𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑��  - 𝛽�𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑏𝑜𝑟_𝑔𝑜𝑙𝑑_𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑��  - ∝�� 𝑔� �𝜆𝑋�� �𝜀���      �5�

That is, we add gold production for the mining districts to their neighbors, and _β2_ measures the

effects of gold production in these districts, as well. That is, if _β2_ is statistically and

economically significant, it would imply that increased production in a neighboring district has

spillover effects on the district in question.

In Annex table 4, we have added the gold production of the mining areas to their neighbors and

we estimate the spillover effects of mining production in a district on employment in adjacent

districts. As before, panel A shows effects of increasing production in the previous period, and

34
24 Due to possible differences in methodologies data from this surveys should not be directly compared 25 Elementary occupations include: Cleaners and helpers; Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers; Labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport; Food preparation assistants; Street and related sales and services workers; Refuse workers and other elementary workers.

22 23
Refugee receiving and hosting countries have shown generosity and kept borders open while adapting to a protracted stay of the refugees as the situation in Ukraine remains volatile and prospects for refugees returning home remain grim. Under the Temporary Protection Directive or other protection mechanisms implemented in most countries, refugees have access to health care benefits, but certain groups may be left out according to country-specific practices – for example, those who do not apply for temporary protection and those who temporarily return to Ukraine or move from one location to another and are deregistered [5] .

Health systems in refugee-receiving countries have made substantial efforts to meet the needs of Ukrainian refugees. However, challenges in host country health systems, such as health workforce shortages, long waiting lists, and language barriers affect access to care and may discourage healthseeking among refugees. Refugees’ movement within and out of countries present challenges for local health providers to register and provide required services. At the same time, there are
_5_ For the purpose of this analysis, the category that refers to “basic and essential services” regards denial of, or unequal access to basic
services, the category “family life” is linked to family separation or inability to exercise family unit, and “life incidents” are linked to
enforced disappearance.
_6_ [ACNUR (2023), Diagnosticos Participativos, https://www.acnur.org/portugues/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Diagnosticos-](https://www.acnur.org/portugues/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Diagnosticos-Participativos-2023-.pdf)
[Participativos-2023-.pdf](https://www.acnur.org/portugues/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Diagnosticos-Participativos-2023-.pdf) pp. 7; 9.
_7_ Idem, p. 13
_8_ [Cáritas-REACH (2022), Avaliação Baseada em Área (ABA) em Boa Vista, Roraima, https://caritas.org.br/storage/arquivo-de-](https://caritas.org.br/storage/arquivo-de-biblioteca/March2023/Ir3dz5ULhRAzNV4wqkwi.pdf)
[biblioteca/March2023/Ir3dz5ULhRAzNV4wqkwi.pdf, p.14](https://caritas.org.br/storage/arquivo-de-biblioteca/March2023/Ir3dz5ULhRAzNV4wqkwi.pdf)
_9_ [R4V (2024), Microsoft Power BI](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMWJhN2UzOWMtZWFlZC00MzZiLWI0OWQtNGZlMDIzN2Y3Zjg5IiwidCI6ImU1YzM3OTgxLTY2NjQtNDEzNC04YTBjLTY1NDNkMmFmODBiZSIsImMiOjh9&pageName=f271143c36cbd9a6b0ee)

_10_ Idem.

UNHCR / October, 2024 4
**the younger age groups.** Ukrainian
refugee incomes from employment are highest in the 25–34 and 35–44 age groups. However, relative to the economy as a whole, the wages of Ukrainian refugees are the highest in the youngest age groups and decrease with age. This can be explained by three facts. First, wages in the youngest age groups are most compressed, because they diverge with time and accumulated professional experience. Second, younger persons have less experience and so lose least from migration. Third, younger persons often find it easier to learn the language of the host country.

**The earnings of Ukrainian refugees**

**differ across sectors in nominal**

**terms and as a percentage of the**

**economy as a whole – only education**
8 A household is defined to fall below the poverty line if its members fall below the poverty line on individual basis (the equivalized income of all household members is the same) 9 Its magnitude can be computed as the difference between the median equivalized market rent in the region and the actual equivalized accommodation expense
12,294 individuals, of which 7,491 men live within 100 km of a mine. In addition, the DHS

data collect records of all children born within the five years prior to the surveying. Of the

12,174 children born to the surveyed women within the last five years, 6,888 were born to

women currently residing within 100 km of a mine. See Appendix table 1 for definition of

outcome variables.

We complement the analysis with household data from the GLSS collected in the years—1998–

99, 2004–05, and 2012–13. These data are a good complement to the DHS data, because they
Furthermore, the Ministry of Education continues to collect data on refugee and asylum-seekers students for the
education management information system. The same applies with the Ministry of Health; data on refugee and
asylum-seekers are included in the national health information system. The government is working on releasing
breakdowns of pupils by legal status (nationals and refugees). Additionally, the Government continues to work
to include refugees in the national civil registry database. However, the technical and financial prerequisites
for this are not yet in place. Furthermore, UNHCR has long been advocating for refugees and asylum-seekers
to be included in the future national population and household census, and there is now apparent agreement
from the government on this principle.
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**ACCOMMODATION QUALITY BY POVERTY GROUP**

Income above the poverty line Income below the poverty line

**LIVING CONDITIONS BY POVERTY GROUP**

Income above the poverty line Income below the poverty line Living in collective housing Not reporting feeling safe walking in neighbourhood after dark Unable to store or cook food Insufficient Lacking privacy separate showers or toilets Feeling under pressure to leave accommodation Source: Survey data, SAG estimates

**POVERTY EFFECTS ON HEALTHCARE ACCESS**

Income above the poverty line Income below the poverty line Source: Survey data, SAG estimates

**FOOD COPING STRATEGY OVER LAST 7 DAYS BY POVERTY**

**GROUP**

Income above the poverty line Income below the poverty line Had to reduce essential health expenditures in last 30 days (including drugs) Unable to obtain needed healthcare in the last 30 days Could not afford hospital or clinic fee in last 30 days Had to borrow money for food Note: Percentages of those that could not afford clinic fees are as share of those not able to access healthcare in the last 30 days Source: Survey data, SAG estimates
**Potential macroeconomic benefits**

**from the further integration of**

**refugees into the labour market**

**are considerable.** Addressing even
half of the existing gaps can generate significant macroeconomic gains of at least PLN 6 billion value added annually.
Such an increase in GDP would contribute more than PLN 2.5 billion to public sector revenue through taxes and social security contributions. These estimates are conservative, as they consider only the direct gains for workers. As the economy adjusts to a more skilled workforce, additional growth would result from increased company investments necessary to meet needs of more advanced workforce. While increased competition might reduce overall gains, deeper specialization can mitigate such effects, as suggested by the experience with refugee integration into the labour market.

05

**•** **Widespread occupational licensing**

**is an obstacle to efficient use of**

**refugees' human capital.** Only 3.6% of
Ukrainian refugees insured at ZUS work in regulated professions compared to 10.6% of Polish citizens. Many barriers on entry to a profession apply to foreign citizenship rather than skill or exam requirements. This is relevant in education, medical professions, and even fire service.

**•** **Lack of fluent Polish negatively**

**affects the labour situation of**
Observations 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,270 15,991
R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.128 0.137 0.037 0.213 0.278

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Importantly, most of the income of Ukrainian nationals living in Poland, both refugees and pre-2022 migrants, comes from their work. Our calculations based on the UNHCR MSNA Poland 2023 survey results show that 80% of refugee income comes from employment, with other sources on average playing a much lesser role. The income brackets presented in the survey show that 20% of households earn less than 3000 PLN, 41% earn between 3,000 and 6,000 PLN and 12% earn more than 6,000 PLN, while 27% of respondents preferred not to answer. Meanwhile, in the NBP (2023) survey conducted in November 2022 the net income of refugees oscillated between 2,000 and 3,000 PLN, while the net income of pre-2022 migrants was closer to between 3,000 and 4,000 PLN.
In the case of Ukrainians that were out of work, the monthly income was more varied, especially because there were fewer previous migrants in this situation.
The median income for non-employed prewar immigrants was around 2,500 PLN [32] .
Among refugees from Ukraine remaining out of work at the time of the survey, the median income equaled around 600 PLN.
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**UKRAINE REFUGEE VS HOST GROSS MONTHLY WAGES, EUR/MONTH**

Minimum wage (2024) Refugee mean wage (2023) Refugee mean wage (2024) Host mean wage (2024) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region Note: Mean wages have been estimated by dividing household employment income by the total number of working hours and then computing a weighted average across households with weights proportional to total working hours. As the survey asked for net income, weighted means were then converted to gross amounts for comparability based on host country tax rates.

Source: Survey data, Eurostat, SAG estimates Similar to its impact on employment status, education seems to have a much less pronounced effect on wage premiums for refugees compared to hosts, also suggesting the presence of underemployment. While, according to Eurostat data and SAG estimates, a local with an advanced degree can expect to earn nearly 80% more than someone with only lower secondary education [18], the same wage gap [19] for Ukrainians stands as just 16% based on survey data.
We find that refugees from Ukraine who remain in Poland as workers, entrepreneurs, consumers, and taxpayers have a positive impact on economic output, which will increase in the long run. Results of our general equilibrium Deloitte D.Climate model show that refugees from Ukraine contributed 0.7-1.1% to the Gross Domestic Product in 2023. In the long-term this effect will grow to 0.9-1.35%. In our model, the long-term is defined as the period over which the economy fully adjusts to the shock of the initial refugee inflow; it does not include other aspects, e.g. refugee children growing-up and entering employment.
These results are consistent with previous, similar studies. However, they should be treated as lower-bound estimates, as we do not allow for the possibility of an increase in the labour force triggering a positive productivity shock (e.g., due to increased specialisation), because there is little data to credibly estimate its size.
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO ACCESSED FORMAL AND**

**INFORMAL SUPPORT BY COUNTRY**

Only formal Only informal Both None Other

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO ACCESSED FORMAL AND**

**INFORMAL SUPPORT BY AGE AND GENDER**

**GENDER = FEMALE**

Only formal Only informal Both None Other Regional Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia (N=1,716) 56% 34% 47% 37% 29% 33% 49% 59% 64% 44% 59% 14% 31% 23% 24% 28% 17% 17% 43% 58% 61% 52% 71% 34% 32% 38% 25% 26% 15% 29% 23% 12% 15% 17% 45% 26% 32% 30% 21% 23% 25% 21% 27% 13% 12% 13% 12% 60+ years old 35-59 18-34 12-17 5-11 (N=1,355)

**GENDER = MALE**

Only formal Only informal Both None Other 44% 36% 10% 17% 21% 25% 9% 14% 11%
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Table 2. Deloitte D.Climate model results for Ukrainian refugees’ influx**

**Current estimate** **Long-run estimate**
2024 2030

**Gross Domestic Product** +2.71% +3.21%

**Unemployment rate** - -0.10 pp.

**Real wages** 0.00% +0.24%

**General government income** +2.94% +2.73%

Source: Deloitte D.Climate estimates.

**The positive shock to the marginal**

**productivity of labour stabilized the**

**current impact on the labour market**

**and should turn positive in the long**

**run.** In the model, additional influx of
employees increases labour market competition, creating an upward pressure on unemployment rate and downward pressure on real wages. This increase almost completely offsets the additional positive shock to the marginal productivity of labour. While the assumed increase in productivity stabilizes unemployment rate and real wage impacts in the 2022-2024, in the long-term, in 2030 the cumulative impact of Ukrainian refugees should lower the unemployment rate by 0.1 pp. and increase real wages by 0.24%.

**Ukrainian refugees increase general**

**government revenue as workers,**

**entrepreneurs, and consumers.** First,
a larger number of employees increases the wage pool. Second, a larger population increases private consumption. Both streams are taxed. Also, an inflow of capital