ai4data/datause-dataset-rechunked huggingface dataset:
**pandemic, regional drought, inflation crisis and continuing global economic turbulence.** According to data from

the Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS), the Shona community experienced significant job

losses during the pandemic, particularly between July and September 2020, when unemployment increased

dramatically. [[9]] This period of economic disruption caused by the pandemic led to fluctuating employment rates, as

seen in the figure below.

_Figure 3: Labor force participation as a percentage of working age population, between 2019 and 2024_

_Source: 2019 Shona socioeconomic survey,_ [[8]] _Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys (RRPS),_ _[[9]]_ _and the authors’ calculation_

_of 2024 survey data._

**While employment has started to improve, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, especially for women.**

The employment rate for women decreased from 72 percent in 2019 to 61 percent in 2024, which can largely be

attributed to the job losses incurred during the pandemic and slower recovery in female-dominated sectors that

were further setback by the food price crisis and global economic headwinds. Meanwhile, male employment

increased slightly from 74 percent to 76 percent during the same period, reflecting a quicker rebound in male
dominated occupations.
24 25 Economic research on dispersal policies and labour market inclusion focuses on the strength of local labour markets and size of local ethnic networks. While some scholars find only the strength of local labour markets to be significant and not co-national networks (Foged, Hasager, and Peri, 2022), or inconsistent results for conational networks (Müller, Pannatier, and Viarengo, 2022), others find effects only for co-national networks (Damm, 2014).
_UNHCR   Discussion   Paper   –15   June   2013_

# **Supporting   Durable   Solutions** **in   South-­‐East   Myanmar**

## **A   framework   for   UNHCR   engagement**

**1.** **INTRODUCTION**

Myanmar   is   currently   undergoing   a   process   of   significant   and   rapid   change,   which   has
already   generated   a   series   of   political,   social   and   economic   reforms   affecting   all   aspects
of   life   in   the   country.   The   reforms   launched   by   the   president   Thein   Sein   and   largely
supported   by   the   opposition   leader   Aung   San   Suu   Kyi   have   received   strong   and   positive
encouragements   from   abroad   with   the   most   immediate   outcome   reflected   in   increased
foreign   aid   and   the   temporary   suspension   of   a   number   of   economic   sanctions.   Key   legal
amendments   have   been   adopted   to   ease   restrictions   on   foreign   investments,   national
media   and   political   parties   while,   in   addition,   hundreds   of   political   prisoners   have   been
released   from   detention.

In   late   2011,   President   Thein   Sein’s   Government   pledged   to   make   the   ethnic   issue   a
national   priority,   offering   dialogue   with   all   armed   groups   and   dropping   preconditions
for   talks.   By   early   2012,   cease-­‐fires   were   agreed   between   the   Government   and   a   number
of   non-­‐state   armed   opposition   groups,   including   the   Democratic   Karen   Buddhist   Army
(DKBA),   the   Karen   National   Union   (KNU),   and   the   Karenni   National   Progressive   Party
(KNPP).
Regarding types of support received, most participants reported utilizing formal services with psychotherapy/counselling services being the most common (44%). Smaller numbers participated in creative psychosocial activities (19%), group or individual structured interventions designed to improve well-being (17%), psychiatry/medication management (8%), school-based services (4% overall; for children under 18, 13%), support gained from messaging materials (2%), and training for caregivers in how to support children in distress (1%). These formal services, provided by professionals or by trained specialists and nonspecialists, aim to address both clinical and subclinical mental health needs through structured, evidence-informed approaches.

Informal support also played a significant role, with 33% of participants receiving support from family and friends, 12% accessing spiritual support, and 3% receiving support from their employer (e.g., flexible Regionally, 56% of participants reported receiving only formal services, 25% reported receiving only informal support, and 14% of participants reported receiving both formal and informal forms of support.
Forms of support varied across countries, with uptake of formal services ranging from 29% of participants in Hungary to 64% of participants in Poland. In some settings with lower use of formal services, participants appeared somewhat more likely to seek out or use informal supports.

**21**
Investigating the district-level effects on children’s health and birth outcomes in table 7, we

note a higher number of prenatal visits and an increase in attendance of a midwife in panel A.

These results are highly statistically significant and the effects are economically significant. A

mine opening increases the number of prenatal visits by 0.76 and increases the probability that

the birth was preceded by a prenatal visit supervised by a midwife by 12.5 percentage points.

In column 6 of panel A, we see that mine openings in a district reduce child mortality. The

probability of an infant dying before 12 months of age is reduced by 8.5 percentage points.

Given the importance of child mortality for human welfare, we strongly encourage future

research to investigate the mechanisms behind these striking results. Since the share of prenatal

visits supervised by a midwife also increases with mine openings, the results potentially speak

to the importance of midwives for reducing infant mortality.

**Table 7 Effects of mine opening at the district level on birth outcomes and child health**

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
- Provide   assistance   to   mine   victims   and   support   Mine   Risk   Education   (MRE)
while   following   up   and   advocate   for   the   implementation   of   humanitarian   mine
action   including   survey,   mapping,   marking   and   clearance   of   contaminated   areas,
especially   in   areas   of   potential   and   current   return.   Develop   key   advocacy
messages   and   co-­‐ordination   mechanisms   to   ensure   that   displaced   communities
are   aware   of   any   landmine   contamination   in   places   of   origin   and   transit.

- Advocate   for   the   recognition   of   education   certificates   received   in   country   of
asylum   and   the   development   of   bi-­‐lingual   educational   programmes.

- Conducting   awareness-­‐raising   on   SGBV   prevention   and   response,   assisting   SGBV
victims   through   established   referral   mechanisms   for   treatment   and   psycho-­‐
social   support,   and   supporting   community-­‐based   protection   solutions.

- Establish   community   based   mechanisms   for   identifying   EVIs   and   provide
tailored   assistance.

13
that is produced by labour alone. This can be estimated by assuming that it is equal to the labour compensation share of GDP (GDP can be divided into compensation of labour and capital), which in 2022 and 2023 stood in Poland at 48% according to the European Commission’s AMECO database.
Accounting for that, gives a lower estimate of 0.7-1.0% GDP. Such calculations are very abstract, and do not account for other phenomena developing simultaneously in the economy, like the various effects of the war and energy shock. For this reason, we turn next to formal general equilibrium modelling, where equations of the model state explicitly every assumption about the workings of the economy and allow for a credible estimation of counter-factual scenarios.
refugees, we have adjusted all the results proportionally to a 1.4-2.2% employment growth. First, Gradzewicz, Jabłon owski, Sasiela, and Żółkiewski (2021) use the NBP CGE model to estimate the economic impact of pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2015-2018 period, treating their inflow as a positive unskilled labour shock. If the Ukrainian refugee inflow had the same characteristics, it would yield a 0.5-0.8% higher GDP – the lower bound of our estimate. Second, Strzelecki, Growiec, and Wyszyński (2022) perform a growth accounting exercise to gauge the economic impact of the pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2014-2018 period, accounting for hours and worker characteristics to arrive at a productivityadjusted labour supply. If Ukrainian refugees had the same characteristics, they © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz As such **4 scenarios** were calculated with options corresponding to different mixes of low and high estimation for employment and productivity while keeping stable impact on consumption: high or low employment level, similar (baseline) or lower (conservative) productivity. In the conservative productivity scenario, we assumed approximately 10% lower refugee productivity estimated based on incomes reported in MSNA Poland 2023 and data from Statistics Poland.

**Table 2.** Cumulative changes in main indicators in 2023
_UNHCR   Discussion   Paper   –15   June   2013_

make   efforts   towards   an   internal   peace   process   with   armed   groups   in   the   border   areas,
parallel   debates   emerged   about   the   opportunity   to   return   for   over   a   hundred   thousand
refugees   from   the   “temporary   shelters” [2] in   Thailand.

While   the   present   and   immediately   expected   environment   in   Myanmar   does   not   meet   all
the   conditions   or   safeguards   for   an   organized   return,   the   changing   environment   makes
it   prudent   that   measures   are   initiated   to   prepare   for   any   possible   voluntary   repatriation
of   refugees   as   well   as   the   return,   local   integration   or   voluntary   resettlement   to   another
part   of   the   country   of   IDPs   in   Myanmar.   Any   preparations,   however,   should   be   initiated
with   due   caution   so   as   not   to   send   the   wrong   “message”   to   the   Government,   non-­‐state
armed   groups,   IDPs,   refugees   or   partners   that   return   is   being   encouraged   or   promoted
at   this   stage.

This   Discussion   Paper   seeks   to   articulate   a   broad   framework   which   should   guide
UNHCR’s   engagement   in   the   South-­‐East   in   2013-­‐2015,   and   in   particular,   to   define   the
parameters   of   UNHCR’s   role   in   supporting:

i. durable   solutions   for   IDPs;   and
ii. the   sustainable   reintegration   of   returning   refugees.
treatment. District level is an additional interesting level of analysis, since it captures effects

through the fiscal channel, and has previously been employed in, for example, Loyaza, Mier y

Teran, and Rigolini (2013) to measure income inequality across mining districts in Peru. With

Ghana’s tax-sharing rules, district tax income and royalties increase with expansion in gold

extraction (for more information, see section 2). In the district-level analysis, we first use mine

openings as the independent variable, and then we use a richer specification with production

levels. Given the spatial location of mines near district borders, we additionally analyze spatial

spillovers from mining districts to neighboring districts.

**4.2.1 Difference-in-differences at the district level**

The first approach is similar to the local-level approach, only an individual is defined as being

treated by a mine opening if she or he lives in a district with at least one active mine. In total,

our mines are located in 11 mining districts (see figure 3). For districts with several mines, we

define the whole district as active whenever at least one mine is active. Later, we will also

consider district total annual production (tons of gold extracted), and thereby the effect of the
wages and reduced over-education for migrants working in licensed jobs, while producing worse labour market outcomes for those who did not gain licensure.
According to Peterson et al. (2014), over the 1973–2010 period, U.S. states with more stringent occupational licensing for migrant physicians received fewer new migrant physicians and struggled more with staffing shortages in healthcare. Aleksynska and Tritah (2013) quoted data that migrants in France were denied legal access to approximately 30% of jobs in the country.

Ukrainian refugees Polish citizens Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey (Ukrainian refugees’ educational attainment), 2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey Eurostat (Polish citizens educational attainment), and mid-2024 ZUS administrative data (occupational groups).

**Chart 21. Share of regulated professions by citizenship and legal status, Q2 2024**

**The educational premium seems**

**to be lower for Ukrainian refugees**

**compared to the general workforce**
and control groups being on similar trajectories before mine opening. This assumption is

discussed below when we investigate the balance of treatment and control areas. In particular,

we test for differences in outcomes in areas where mining has not started and compare this to

areas farther away.

While we cannot show the exogeneity of the opening year to local socioeconomic variables,

this assumption has been made in previous literature (e.g. Aragon and Rud, 2015; Benshaul

Tolonen, 2018, 2019; Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016, von der Goltz and Barnwal, 2019). In

addition, Benshaul-Tolonen (2018, 2019) who explore gold mining, in particular, point to (i)

the rapid increase in large-scale gold mining that occurred during the recent mineral price

supercycle, (ii) the dominance of large multinational firms who are not relying on local labor

market conditions, (iii) and their lower reliance on local infrastructure compared with bulkier

metals and minerals, as gold mining firms may fly out their resources. Despite this, the

assumption of exogenous opening year or exact location remain untested.

In a second method, we use a spatial lag model. Such a model allows for nonlinear effects with
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**The only reliable timeseries of the**

**number of Ukrainians in Poland over**

**the past decade is social insurance**

**data on insured Ukrainian nationals,**

**though it accounts only for workers.**
The focus on workers rather than on the entire group does not change much in the data from before February 2022, as the previous influx consisted mainly of Ukrainians seeking employment in Poland. However, the actual number of employed Ukrainian nationals must have been higher. First, certain types of legal work often undertaken by temporary employees do not require Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 4. Age and gender structure of Ukrainian refugees**

**Most of the refugees from Ukraine**

**currently living in Poland are women**

**and children, though over half of**

**the total population is of working**
On 25 April 2023, in the midst of significant arrivals from Sudan, the Transition President promulgated
[Decree No. 0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 implementing the asylum Law (Decret d’application de la loi d’asile](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
[n°0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 portant modalités d’application de la loi du 31 décembre 2020). This 2023](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
Decree establishes the measures to operationalize the provisions of the 2020 asylum Law. Henceforth, the
combined set of legal instruments, comprising the 2020 asylum Law and the 2023 Decree, is referred to as
the asylum legislation.
UNHCR (2023). Poland: Multi-Sector Needs Assessment — Results Overview (MSNA 2023), October, https://data.unhcr.org/fr/documents/details/104427 UNHCR (2025a). Poland: Socio-Economic Insights Survey in Poland - Results Analysis (SEIS 2024). UNHCR, October, https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/ details/115045 UNHCR (2025b). High employment rates, but low wages: a poverty assessment of Ukrainian refugees in neighboring countries, Regional Refugee Response for the Ukraine Situation, Regional Bureau for Europe, UNHCR.

UNHCR (2025c). Ukraine Multi-year Strategy 2025 – 2027, UNHCR, November.

Urban M. (2022). Refugees will lift economy's potential, but challenges remain, Research Briefing | Poland. Oxford Economics, https://www.oxfordeconomics.
com/resource/refugees-in-poland-will-lift-economys-potential-but-challengesremain/

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland 47
but has negative labour market effects due to increased competition for jobs among workers. However, little of these theoretical negative labour market effects can be seen in empirical data. This is because immigrant workers encourage further specialisation among native workers and firms, which increases productivity and offsets the negative effects. The same effects can be expected in the case of refugees entering the Polish labour market – besides increasing labour supply and competing with Polish workers, they provide new skills, ideas, and allow Polish workers to specialize in higher value-added tasks. These effects were included in the estimates of the impact of Ukrainian refugees on Polish GDP by Monitor Deloitte (2022) and Oxford Economics (2022), but these estimates were based on literature rather than Polish empirical data. In Deloitte’s 2024 study, these effects were omitted due to a lack of empirical data with which to calibrate them specifically. This study uses available data, albeit limited, to create a conservative scenario that includes positive impacts on productivity.
As of September 2024, Indonesia is host to 11,735 refugees and asylum-seekers (6,548 families)
residing primarily in urban areas throughout the Indonesian archipelago. Almost half of all refugees
and asylum seekers are from Afghanistan, followed by Myanmar, Somalia, and 49 other countries.
UNHCR has a country office in Jakarta and field presence in Aceh, Medan, Makassar, Pekanbaru, and
Tanjung Pinang.

While Indonesia is not signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, there are provisions for refugee
protection embedded within domestic law (including the 1945 Constitution, the 1999 Human Rights
Law, and the 2016 Presidential Regulation on the Handling of Refugees) and Indonesia generally
respects the right to seek asylum and the principle of non-refoulement. UNHCR continues to work to
advance opportunities for refugee inclusion and participation in Indonesia, including by seeking to
improve access to self-reliance and to national education, health, civil registration, and social systems.
Displaced   people   and   their   host   communities   in   South-­‐East   Myanmar   currently   face   a
number   of   protection-­‐related   risks   and   problems   such   as   the   lack   of   civil   documentation
(including   birth   registration,   family   lists   and   identity   documentation   in   remote   areas),
landmines,   access   to   land   and   livelihoods,   forced   labour,   forced   recruitment,   forced
contribution   or   taxation,   trafficking,   gender-­‐based   violence   and,   in   some   cases,
restrictions   of   movement.   The   protection   concerns   are   often   exacerbated   for   IDPs   and,
potentially,   refugees   upon   return.
A   profiling   exercise   covering   both   the   registered   and   unregistered   refugee   population
residing   in   the   temporary   shelters   in   Thailand,   will   be   carried   out   by   the   Mae   Fah   Luang
Foundation   on   behalf   of   UNHCR   in   2013-­‐2014.   The   exercise   will   permit   updating   of   data
on   areas   of   origin   (Regions/States,   districts   and   townships,   and   village   tracts/villages)
and   will   assess   the   intentions   of   refugees,   whether   that   would   be   for   eventual   voluntary
return,   resettlement   to   a   third   country   or   other   durable   solution   possibilities.   For   those
refugees   that   intend   to   return,   information   about   their   desired   or   intended   destination
will   be   captured   in   the   survey   (this   may   include   places   of   origin   or   prior   habitual
residence,   or   other   locations   in   Myanmar).   The   major   focus   of   the   survey   is   about   future

5
[Furthermore, Article 65 of the 2023 Decree specifies that refugees or asylum-seekers with a (provisional)](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
residence permit have the right to reside and move within the Chadian territory, like Chadian nationals. This
legislation aligns with previous practices, and there has been no change in the duration and legality of stay
for refugees and asylum-seekers in Chad. In practice, renewals of asylum-seekers’ certificates and refugee
identity cards by the authorities continue without difficulty. Over 80 per cent of consulted asylum-seekers in
2021 reported no difficulties with the renewal of their asylum-seeker certificates.

Article 36 of the 2020 Asylum Law guarantees protection against refoulement. The 2023 Decree also
details specific provisions to ensure effective respect to the non-refoulement principles including Articles
51, 52 and 53. The Law also outlines legal provisions for cessation clauses, cancellation and revocation of
refugee status, adhering to international refugee law standards. Over the past three years, there has been
no documented case of refoulement involving a refugee or asylum-seeker, nor has there been any reported
case of the unlawful termination of refugee status. Despite over half of arriving asylum-seekers lacking
identity or civil registry documentation, there have been no issues reported regarding their admission to
the territory.
A significant number of refugees are concentrated in the urban areas of Poland. For one, cities generally record lower unemployment rates and higher work productivity, though the costs of living remain higher than in rural areas.
According to the active population in the PESEL database, over 30% of all PESEL UKR holders had them issued in the country’s 12 biggest cities. At the same time, the results for the MSNA Poland 2023 survey suggest that these 12 biggest cities are inhabited by over 35% of refugees.

Refugees record higher levels of employment inclusion in European countries that have relatively better labour market situations. In countries with lower unemployment, refugees fare better in the labour market. Since women make up the majority of refugees of working age, the situation of women on the labour market is especially important. As such, female unemployment rates explain 36% of the variation in refugees from Ukraine employment rates in studies from 11 EU Member States [22]

**Chart 10.** Female unemployment and refugees from Ukraine employment in Europe

70%

**Chart 11.** Education attainment of Poles and Ukrainians

**Eurostat** Poland LFS 2022

**UNHCR**

**(2023)**

**NBP**

**(2022)**

**Ukrstat**

11% 56% 48% 46% 30% Refugees from Ukraine VII-VIII 2023

---
[22] After excluding Germany and Switzerland as outliers. 23 Due to possible differences in methodologies data from this surveys should not be directly compared
**Total of Incidents** **[5]**

### Protection risks

##### Protection Risk I

**Discrimination and stigmatization.** Racism and xenophobia are mentioned by refugees and other
people in need of international protection as serious obstacles to their local integration into the
Brazilian society. Adults report that discrimination hinders their access to dignified housing and
the formal labor market, [6] while children refer to being bullied in school because of their origin. [7] In
Roraima state, the primary entry point for Venezuelans into Brazil, 44% of refugees and migrants
reported experiencing discrimination due to their nationality. This was most prevalent in the
workplace (37%), during job searches (30%), and while attempting to access healthcare (24%),
education (21%) and also while looking for housing (20%). [8 ]