ai4data/datause-dataset-rechunked huggingface dataset:
### **Access to Territory**

In 2023 and 2024, boats carrying nearly 3,000 Rohingya refugees (the majority of whom are women
and children) have landed in Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. According to information provided
to UNHCR by the new arrivals, the increase in the number of individuals undertaking the sea journey
has been driven by a number of factors, including increasing insecurity in the camps in Bangladesh; a
decrease in the cost of the sea journey; continued instability in Myanmar; and a lack of progress in
creating conditions that would enable return to Myanmar, including addressing the root causes of
Rohingya displacement.

While many Indonesians remain supportive of and sympathetic to the challenges facing Rohingya
refugees, the most recent boat arrivals have met unprecedented resistance in Indonesia. Some boats
were initially prevented from disembarking, many refugees were forced to relocate several times due
rejection from local communities, and many of those who have disembarked have yet to be allocated
an adequate shelter by Indonesian authorities. As a result, hundreds of refugees who have
disembarked in recent months are currently living in extremely perilous, overcrowded, and
substandard conditions in which the protection and assistance response remained a challenge.
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland much of the heterogeneity inside of these groups. Every two years, GUS publishes information about the average wages in 128 occupational groups, with the latest data for October 2022 (GUS, 2024a).
When ZUS data is aggregated into these occupational groups with the assumption that wage structure remains the same as in October 2022, the rate at which Ukrainian

**The occupational progress of**

**Ukrainian refugees as compared to the**

**host population may be faster than**

**the nine main occupational groups**

**above suggest.** What is particularly
striking is the similar pace of progress of Ukrainian refugees and pre-war Ukrainians in the nine main occupational groups presented above. However, it conceals

**Chart 12. Ukrainian refugee wages relative to Polish citizens in the same employee-cells**
Employee cells are divided by poviat, sex, age group, and main occupational group 20 2022 Q2 2024 Q2
work in mining, and insignificantly less in agriculture or service and sales. The likelihood that

a man works in mining increases by 11.3 to 12.6 percentage points, which is more than a 400

percent increase in likelihood from the mean value which is 2.8%. For both men and women,

the results are indicative of changes in labor force participation on the extensive and intensive

margin. Fewer people work, as indicated by columns (1) and (2) (significant for men), but those

who work, work more hours than before (column 3, albeit insignificant). It should be noted that

the sample sizes are limited and these estimates may suffer from lack of power.

Annex figure 2 presents the results graphically and shows the spatial structure for a subset of

the variables. The likelihood of a woman working in services decreases with distance from

mine, and log wages are higher within 10 to 20 km of an active mine. Men are, intuitively, more

likely to work as miners if they reside close to an active mine, and the correlation decreases

with distance. Wages for men are also higher close to active mines (panel D). Beyond 40 km,

the estimated effects are close to zero.
Indonesia is host to a relatively small number of refugees and asylum seekers, but they reside over a
wide geographical area in a country of over 17,000 islands. While approximately half of the refugee
population lives in Jakarta and the surrounding areas, the other half is spread throughout the
archipelago. The UNHCR operation in Indonesia is a small one, both in terms of staffing and resources,
and the distribution of refugees across this large territory, coupled with complex protection concerns
and emergency boat arrivals, creates unique operational challenges. UNHCR continually strives to
prioritize efforts and resources to be as impactful as possible in supporting refugees who are most in
need and in advancing a sustainable protection environment in the country.

UNHCR / 1 November 2024 8
The effects on child health are, however, not all positive. We note, particularly, a statistically

significant decrease in weight-for-age, but the other two measures are also negative (panel B of

22
Individuals   and   families   often   have   no   means   to   retain   legal   services   and   are   often
unaware   of   their   rights   to   seek   legal   remedies   under   Myanmar   law.   Services,   security
and   the   rule   of   law   are   weak,   and   effective   protection   and   response   mechanisms   to
address   sexual   and   gender-­‐based   violence   (SGBV)   or   the   specific   needs   of   extremely
vulnerable   individuals   (EVIs),   are   still   rudimentary   with   a   lack   of   appropriate   core
mechanisms   and   services   available.

Cases   of   arbitrary   arrest   and   detention   in   Myanmar   continue   to   be   reported.   Pervasive
problems   with   the   rule   of   law   in   Myanmar   are   well   documented   and   detention   and
prison   conditions   remain   extremely   problematic.

In   addition,   under   the   1947   Immigration   (Emergency   Provisions)   Act   (as   amended),
illegal   departure   or   entry   is   punishable   by   a   fine   or   imprisonment   of   up   to   five   years.
UNHCR   is   not   aware   of   any   prosecutions   brought   under   this   law,   and   the   President   has
also   stated   publically   that   he   welcomes   back   Myanmar   people   who   ‘for   various   reasons’
left   the   country.   However   there   have   not   been   any   changes   or   amnesties   pronounced   in
relation   to   this   law,   and   this   would   therefore   need   to   be   addressed   prior   to   any   organised
voluntary   repatriation   of   refugees.

**2.3.   Socio-­‐economic   environment**
The   health   infrastructure   in   the   South-­‐East   remains   substantially   underserved   with   a

Committee.   The   Myanmar   Peace   Centre   is   tasked   to   provide   policy   advice   and   strategic   guidance   as   well   as
co-­‐ordinating   Government   activities   in   the   key   areas   of:   cease-­‐fire   negotiations   and   implementation;   peace
negotiations   and   political   dialogue;   co-­‐ordination   of   assistance   in   conflict   affected   areas   and   outreach   and
public   diplomacy.

4
This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World
Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world.
Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted
at andreas.kotsadam@econ.uio.no, anja.tolonen@economics.gu.se, and pchuhan@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development_
_issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the_
_names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those_
_of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and_
_its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._

Produced by the Research Support Team
**02.** Firms recognise changes in the
abundance of skills in the labour force resulting from immigration and adjust their production technologies accordingly. They thereby increase the productivity of these skill groups and themselves (Peri, 2016; Lewis and Peri, 2015; Lewis, 2013; Peri, 2012). This theory is called “ **directed technical**

**change** ” by Acemoglu (2002). Firms
adopt production technologies that favour skills that have become abundant (and thus cheaper) in the labour force. This increases their productivity and offsets the negative effects of competition between workers. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, firms in English cities engaged in unskilled technical change in response to an influx of unskilled workers from the countryside and Ireland. In the postwar United States of the twentieth century, skilled technical change occurred as the proportion of collegeeducated workers grew rapidly.
Our results are consistent with the previous, similar studies. In estimating GDP impacts we take an approach that is most similar to the previous studies of the pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants by NBP economists (Gradzewicz, Jabłonowski, Sasiela, and Żółkiewski, 2021; Strzelecki, Growiec, and Wyszyński, 2022), but unlike the previous Oxford Economics and ours impact estimates of Ukrainian refugees (Urban, 2022; Deloitte, 2022) we do not allow for the possibility of a positive productivity shock, because there is little data to credibly estimate its size. Below, we summarise impacts yielded by these studies. As studies were done under different assumptions on the number of 41 Aggregate region in model consisting of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.
42 In other words it was assumed that money that would be spent e.g. through credit action for investments in Eastern Europe were spent for consumption in Poland.

34 43 Data from forecast of Ministry of Finance from October 2023, [Wytyczne dotyczące wskaźników makroekonomicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/wytyczne-sytuacja-makroekonomiczna)
[Gov.pl (www.gov.pl).](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/wytyczne-sytuacja-makroekonomiczna)
been of 33 % of the funding requested.

According to the 345W reports, 478K

people were impacted until october, which

65% are women and 35% men. 6,479

people with disabilities were reached

during the last period.

**violence**

The states with the higher response

include Tachira, Zulia, Bolivar, and

Miranda. Some of the organizations with

the higher reach include ACNUR, DIOCE
SIS SC, CODEHCIU, HIAS, ALIADAS EN

CADENA A.C, TINTA VIOLETA and CAR
ITAS.

**Figure 1. Summary of HRP 2022 - 2023 results, by Specific Objetive.**

**Responding**

**to protection**

47% **risks associated** 45%

**with violence of**

**GbV**

**children**

# 47 4

**Prevention,**

**mitigation, and**

13%

# 13

99%

# 99

**Figure 1. Summary of HRP 2022 - 2023 results, by Specific Objetive.**

**Responding to**

**protection risks**

**associated with**

47%

# 47

47%

**Responding**

**to protection**

**risks associated**

**with violence of**

45%

99%

**Access to legal**

**documentation***

45%

77% **Access to**

**livelihoods**

# 77

**children**

**Specialised**

**protection services**

_*Target does not consider birth certificates (EV-25)._

77%

**to people affected**

**Access to** 13%

**livelihoods**

**response to**

**protection risks**

**by all forms of**

36%

36%

# 3
In order to compute refugee wages, household net employment income was divided by the total number of working hours reported by all employed members. This figure was then weighted by the total number of working hours and averaged overall all households within a given country (while also respecting poststratification weights). The result was then converted to a monthly wage assuming employment at 40 hours per week and 4.33 weeks in a month. For comparability with host population data, net wages were converted to their gross equivalent utilizing local tax regulations.

# **Limitations**

The statistical significance of the SEIS results is limited by the non-probabilistic selection of respondents.
Moreover, the use of convenience sampling likely led to a larger share of data being collected from more vulnerable households.

There was also a notably high non-response rate regarding questions related to income and expenditure, which likely resulted in non-response bias. The income module of the SEIS was also materially different from the one employed by the EU SILC and the Republic of Moldova’s Household Budget Survey, which may limit comparability of this data to that of host populations.
(1.805) (0.039) (0.054) (0.029) (0.021) (0.029) (0.021)
Active 0.007 0.001 0.050** 0.034** -0.032 0.054** -0.023
(1.012) (0.026) (0.024) (0.017) (0.021) (0.026) (0.022)

Observations 9,790 9,790 12,226 12,216 12,227 12,227 12,227
R-squared 0.128 0.180 0.453 0.148 0.208 0.171 0.095
mean of dep var 0.407 14.84 0.565 0.652 0.151 0.732 11.6

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. OLS = ordinary least squares.

Overall, we estimated in table 8 that a household’s access to electricity decreased when a mine

became active. This finding is surprising if we assume that electricity infrastructure is seldom

destroyed, so that with time, access has generally been increasing. [13]

Figure A1 (Annex) further decomposes the effect, and panel Aa of the figure confirms that the

coefficient for electricity access is negative using the treatment distance 20 km. However, with

a treatment distance of 10 km, the effect is marginally positive and insignificant. If we use a
Refugees are not legally permitted to work in Indonesia. UNHCR advocates for refugees to be given
access to livelihoods opportunities and works with partners to create community empowerment and
self-reliance programs that benefit Indonesians and refugees. These programs include vocational
trainings and entrepreneurships that also promote economic development in Indonesia. At the first
Global Refugee Forum (GRF) in December 2019, the Indonesian Government pledged support to
refugee productivity and empowerment activities. This commitment was confirmed in the second
Global Refugee Forum in December 2023. In September 2023, the Ministry of Manpower issued a
Circular Note allowing refugee participation in skills training programs at government training centers.
The Circular and GRF commitment serve as pivotal entry points to advance economic empowerment.

### **Education**
**employed before their displacement.**
In the SEIS survey, employment rates among refugees aged 18-64 previously employed or self-employed in Ukraine, are 81% and 91% respectively. That is already very high and any further increase would be marginal. On the other hand, those who back in Ukraine managed the household have an employment rate in Poland of 38%. Even before becoming refugees, they would have required support to enter the workforce and now, in the host country, they would be likely to benefit from such help even more. Some of them may be discouraged by not having been able to find a job, others may be marginally attached workers who fell outside the labour force, but have some desire and ability to return to work.

**Chart 25. Ukrainian refugees’ employment rate in the 18-64 age group by previous**

**status in Ukraine**

91% Household Others Studying Employed Self-employed responsibilities Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on SEIS UNHCR survey conducted in May and June 2024.
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# Glossary List of charts and tables

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**GUS** - Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Polish statistical office, also known as Statistics Poland.

**LFS** - Labour Force Survey, Eurostat labour market survey conducted by national statistical offices.

**MSNA** - Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, a 2023 UNHCR survey of refugees from Ukraine.

**PESEL/PESEL UKR** - Powszechny Elektroniczny System Ewidencji Ludności, Universal Electronic System for Registration of the Population.
An ID number of every Polish citizen. **PESEL UKR** is a version issued to Ukrainian citizens in connection with the armed conflict in the territory of that country.

**Poviat** - a middle tier of sub-central government in Poland between voivodship (province) and gmina (commune) level.

**Pre-war Ukrainian migrants** - persons who migrated from Ukraine, primarily for economic reasons, before the full-scale Russian
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

**SEIS** - Socio-Economic Inclusion Survey, a 2024 UNHCR survey of refugees from Ukraine as a follow-up to MSNA from the year before.

**Ukrainian refugees** - persons fleeing Ukraine after the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, covered by EU's Temporary
Protection Directive.
employment, and unemployment rate of natives or other immigrants, except an actual slight positive impact on the wages of native women.
Despite our conservative approach, additional government tax revenues trump the costs of refugee-connected expenditure.
A larger wage pool, higher private consumption, and influx of capital from abroad result in larger tax revenue. In total, the general government revenue increased by 1.05-1.45% in 2023. In monetary terms, this amounts to 10.1-13.7 billion PLN in 2022 and 14.7-19.9 billion PLN in 2023.
If estimates quoted by a government official [2] of public expenses on refugees of around 15 billion PLN in 2022 and 5 billion in 2023 are accurate, we can conclude that they were more than offset by the additional tax revenue. In the long term, refugees should increase yearly government revenue by around 0.85-1.3%.

---
[2] E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of NGOs
The government quickly granted refugees from Ukraine access to the labour market, healthcare, and schooling, facilitating the process of inclusion described in Chapter 2. Considering their psychological stress and needs in terms of child and elderly care, refugees began entering the labour market surprisingly quickly – attaining an employment rate of 28% in May 2022 and 65% in November 2022 (NBP, 2023).
By 30th September 2023 more than 10 thousand ran their own businesses according to the administrative social security ZUS data. Based on the MultiSector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey conducted in July-August 2023, we calculate that 80% of the income of refugee households is derived from employment, with an additional 5% coming from remittances and 2% from Ukrainian pension benefits. In economic terms, refugees from Ukraine in Poland are not receivers of social services and charity, but primarily consumers, employees, and entrepreneurs.
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Economists have advanced an array of channels through which immigration could be increasing productivity. Macro-level regressions demonstrate that immigration has a positive influence on productivity, but they are unable to identify the precise mechanisms behind these impacts.
In part this may stem from the fact, that immigrants and natives differ in important ways, which triggers complementary occupational upgrading of natives and investment in complementary production technologies by firms [15] . Immigrants often exhibit higher entrepreneurship rates from natives. [16] Furthermore, even when immigrants enter seemingly low productivity childcare, elderly care, and housekeeping services, this can allow highly educated and productive native women to increase their labour supply. [17]

---
[15] For example, found by Peri (2016), Lewis and Peri (2015), Lewis (2013), Peri (2012).
[16] For example, found by Anelli, Basso, Ippedico, and Peri (2023), and OECD (2011).
[17] For example, found by Furtado (2016, 2015).
Applying the same strategies to analyze child health and birth outcomes, we find both positive

and negative effects of mining activity. Mining activity appears to marginally reduce the

anthropometric status (short-term malnutrition) of children in mining districts, which could

point to less food security. These results are in sharp contrast to the improvements in birth

attendance and the decrease in infant mortality observed in mining communities and mining

districts. A child in a mining district born after a mine has become active has had more prenatal

visits and is less likely to die as an infant. This result is similar to what Benshaul-Tolonen

(2019) finds for a larger sample of gold-producing countries in Africa. Despite substantial

reductions in diarrheal diseases, the analysis highlights that migrant children are more likely to

suffer from diarrheal diseases. The effects on the migrant community should be interpreted with

care, however, since it may be that less-well-off people choose to migrate to mining

communities and that the mine activities do not make them any less or better off. In addition,

mine closure or downscaling could lead to deterioration in local employment conditions and
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Child health,** **vaccination and** **nutrition**

Timely initiation of breastfeeding (within one hour of delivery) Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months 0-23 153/274 57% months 0-5 15/38 37% months

- Excluding Estonia, Hungary

Breastfeeding practices for infants and young children directly influence their nutritional health during the first two years of life and play a crucial role in child survival. From the survey results, the proportion of children 0-23 months who had timely initiation of breastfeeding was 57% and the rate of exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life was 37% in the region. Data need to be interpreted with caution given the very low number of respondents.

Two doses of measles vaccine are recommended for optimal protection against measles; the survey assessed therefore first and second dose measles vaccination coverage in children aged 9 months to 5 years. In average, 83% of children received at least one measles vaccine, similar to results from 2023 when 84% of children had received at least one dose. Coverage was lowest in Romania with 71% where respondents reported also greater
Substantial progress has been made by Brazil toward implementing the 2019 GRF pledges which
focused on the improvement of the asylum system and the provision of complementary forms of
protection, In 2023, the Government made 10 additional pledges at the GRF, covering the
following topics: improvement and facilitation of the right to family reunion; participation of
people in need of international protection in decision making and consultation processes; creation
of resettlement and complementary pathways programs; strengthening of asylum systems and
improvement of refugee access to health, amongst others.

IFC and UNHCR have been working together since 2018 to create innovative solutions to
overcome the challenges faced by refugees and migrants in Brazil. The two organizations sought
to explore potential ways to engage the private sector in providing solutions with a primary focus
on employment, affordable housing and financial inclusion. IFC and UNHCR, in partnership with
the Brazilian Banking Association (FEBRABAN) and the Brazilian Central Bank, prepared a guide
to inform financial institutions about the profiles and specific documentation of refugees and
migrants and their financial needs.