ai4data/datause-dataset-rechunked huggingface dataset:
Importantly, support with accommodation expenses reduces the calculated poverty rate of refugees from Ukraine to 32% (from 50%) if it is considered to be an indirect source of income [9] . This essentially means that rental aid, in whatever form it is provided, allows over a third of low-income [10] households to de facto live above the poverty line.
In Slovakia this effect is the most dramatic – subsidized housing allows an additional 46% of the refugee population to escape poverty.

**DECREASE IN THE REFUGEE POVERTY RATE AS A RESULT**

**OF ACCOMMODATION RENT SUPPORT, %** **[1,2,3]**

Not adoping coping strategies Stress coping Crisis coping Emergency strategies strategies coping strategies Without accommodation rent support

1. The statistic on emergency strategies may have been affected by
the survey wording on illegal work

---
[10] Those that are below the poverty line
**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland** **Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

# Table of contents

Abstract 04 Non-technical summary 06 Introduction 11

**1.** Inflow of refugees from Ukraine into Poland 12

**2.** Situation of refugees from Ukraine on the labour market in Poland 16

**3.** Economic impact modelling 30

**4.** Unaccounted positive externalities 38

Conclusions 41 Appendix. Model Calibration 42 Bibliography 44 This publication has been produced in cooperation with UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of Deloitte and may not reflect the views of UNHCR.

02 03
22 Deloitte own calculations based on Informacja kwartalna o stanie fnansów publicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal Gov.pl for respective years. The general government income share in GDP in 2024 was calculated based on the data for Q1–Q3 and based on that total general government income was calculated using forecast for GDP from Wytyczne dotyczące wskaźników makroekonomicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal Gov.pl.

23 Model treats general government sector as a whole, as such cost and income internal structure may differ creating institutions with financial loses while other may have disproportionate increase of income.
4. Access to National Public Services

health planning documents.

The 2019 agreement between the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the Ministry of Health, regarding the
progressive integration of camp health centres into the national health system, has facilitated the inclusion
of all camp health centres in the national system, with the assignment of a healthcare worker to each of
these centres, who is included on the Government payroll. The remaining personnel are still supported
by UNHCR through its partners. This support from UNHCR remains necessary because access to quality
Government led healthcare is still limited due to a shortage of healthcare professionals, medication, health
infrastructure, and equipment, as well as high costs.
Certain employment barriers naturally become more pronounced when singling out certain demographics. Some 17% of adults living in households with young children (aged 0 to 11) report lack of childcare as a difficulty with peaks when the youngest child is between 3 and 4. Fifteen percent of those previously employed in the health sector and 14% in the education sector report skills recognition as a barrier.

Generally, analyzing employment in the host country through the lens of prior work experience offers valuable insights. Estimated unemployment is highest, at 33%, for those who were not employed in Ukraine prior to relocation. Among those who were employed, individuals working in administrative work faced the greatest challenge in transitioning, likely due to elevated local language

**7**

Do not know the local language Lack of decent employment opportunities Lack of employment opportunities for my skills Lack of employment opportunities for my age Lack of childcare services Lack of education/skills recognition Need to take care of others

1. Multiple answers were possible

52% 41% 27% 14% 11% 11% 10%
distance. We divide the plane into 10-km distance bins and estimate the model with a full set

of distance bin dummies.

𝑌��� - 𝛽� �� 𝛽�𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒�� 𝛽�𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒� ∙𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒� ∝�� 𝑔� �𝜆𝑋� �𝜀���

�𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒�� 𝛽�𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒� ∙𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒� ∝�� 𝑔� �𝜆𝑋� �𝜀��� �2�

-

for d ∈ {0–10, 10–20, …, 80–90}.

This method, in addition to varying the cutoff point in the baseline estimation strategy, allows

us to identify in more detail the spatial structure of the data. Using this method, we can support

our choice of baseline cutoff distance.

Two limitations to both individual level analysis are that (i) clusters are not repeatedly sampled,

so cluster fixed effects cannot be included, (ii) the data is not representative below the regional

level and no weighting can be undertaken to ensure representability.

**4.2 District-level analysis**

While the estimation strategy in (1) captures some spillovers beyond the 20 km, and strategy

(2) maps the economic footprint of the mine up to 100 km, it does not capture district-level

12
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE underscores the need to further explore how combinations of support types contribute to better outcomes and how service accessibility and quality can be optimized across different settings.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED INFORMAL VS FORMAL**

**MENTAL HEALTH AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES**

**AND REPORT IMPROVEMENT**

Yes Slight No No worsening Only formal Only informal Both None Other (N=1,662) 34% 29% 40% 33% 46% 54% 62% 51% 57% 11% 9%
**Table 11 Using GLSS: Employment on extensive and intensive margin and wages**

(6)
miner

(5)
service
and sales

(4)
agriculture

(3)
hours
worked
per week

(1)
worked
last year

(2)
work 7
days

Panel A: Women
_1. baseline_

active*mine -0.067* -0.032 3.565 -0.075 0.074 0.025
(0.040) (0.038) (3.140) (0.064) (0.054) (0.016)

_2. drop 20-40 km_

active*mine -0.062 -0.039 3.849 -0.076 0.094* 0.026*
(0.040) (0.039) (3.359) (0.064) (0.057) (0.015)

_3. drop 2 years before_

active*mine -0.067* -0.031 3.565 -0.087 0.080 0.024
(0.040) (0.038) (3.140) (0.065) (0.055) (0.016)

_4. mine FE_

active*mine -0.067 -0.012 8.560* -0.084 0.104 0.025*
(0.051) (0.048) (5.125) (0.075) (0.065) (0.015)

_5. mine clustering_

active*mine -0.067* -0.032 3.565 -0.075 0.074 0.025
(0.032) (0.036) (3.521) (0.081) (0.080) (0.022)

Mean dep var. 0.727 0.673 40.39 42.32 0.391 0.005
Panel B: Men
_1. baseline_ -0
3.521) (0.081) (0.080) (0.022)

Mean dep var. 0.727 0.673 40.39 42.32 0.391 0.005
Panel B: Men
_1. baseline_ -0.086** -0.055 3.705 -0.058 -0.032 0.125***
active*mine (0.041) (0.039) (3.460) (0.066) (0.036) (0.043)

_2. drop 20-40 km_

active*mine -0.094** -0.062 3.893 -0.064 -0.031 0.126***
(0.042) (0.040) (3.842) (0.066) (0.038) (0.042)

_3. drop 2 years before_

active*mine -0.094** -0.062 3.708 -0.071 -0.026 0.125***
(0.041) (0.039) (3.459) (0.067) (0.036) (0.043)

_4. mine FE_

active*mine -0.123** -0.094* 8.233 -0.068 -0.049 0.113**
(0.057) (0.051) (5.425) (0.075) (0.044) (0.045)

_5. mine clustering_
**average or gross earnings.** The median
net earnings of Ukrainian refugees in Q2 2024 were PLN 4,000 in SEIS, and PLN 3,767 in NBP (2024) surveys. This is 84% and 79% of the national median, respectively. This estimate would be most likely lower, if data allowed us to look at average or gross earnings. First, a comparison of average instead of median earnings would show a larger gap between Ukrainian refugees and all workers in the economy, as the national average is inflated by top incomes, which are less often earned by Ukrainian refugees than
1. Host Communities

### **RPRF Policy Dimensions**

(as of 30 June 2023)

### **1. Host Communities**

**1.1** **Support for communities in refugee-hosting areas**

There has been little change since June 2020 in this domain and no specific national fiscal or budget policy
is yet in place to provide additional financial transfers to areas most affected by the presence of refugees.
Financial contributions for these areas still rely on projects and programs funded by external donors.

The government’s priorities remain focused on: (i) Defence and security, peace, social cohesion and national
reconciliation; (ii) Good governance and the rule of Law; and (iii) Return to constitutional order. In practice,
regarding transfers from central to local level, the Government of Chad continues to allocate twenty
percent of its budget to security, excluding other social sectors, amid ongoing challenges from conflicts in
neighboring countries, and economic and climatic crises.
Refugees access Indonesia through the air and sea. Many refugees in Indonesia, particularly Rohingya
traveling by boats, are facilitated in their travel and arrive in the country with the assistance of agents.
In previous years, many Rohingya who arrived in Indonesia by sea – approximately 80% - departed
soon after arrival to Malaysia, where a large Rohingya community resides and more robust
employment opportunities, albeit informal opportunities, exist. UNHCR is extremely concerned about
credible reports that refugees in Indonesia – particularly Rohingya in Aceh and North Sumatra – are
being victimized by traffickers during their journey to Indonesia or during onward movement after
arrival in the country.  Refugees have reported numerous protection incidents that took place during
their movement to, through, and from Indonesia, including gender-based violence, physical abuse,
exploitation, harassment, intimidation, forced movement, and extortion. UNHCR monitors the
movement of refugees to assess trends and identify protection risks, to engage with Indonesian
authorities to respond to reports of trafficking, and to counsel on the risks of onward movement.

### **Ensuring Protection with Resource Limitations**
Preparedness   activities   will   continue   and   will   be   strengthened,   including   assistance   to
spontaneous   return.   As   patterns   of   spontaneous   returns   to   specific   locations   emerge,   in
particular   with   the   return   of   entire   households,   UNHCR   will   enhance   its   assistance   to
returnees   and   their   communities   though   an   integrated   multi-­‐sector   package   of
interventions   with   the   aim   of   building   confidence   without   creating   an   artificial   ‘pull’
factor.   UNHCR   will   aim   to   play   a   leading   role   in   bringing   partners   together   to   address
the   identified   needs,   in   the   area   of   legal,   physical   and   material   safety,   collectively   and   in
an   integrated   manner.

**10.3.** **Phase   3:   Refugee   repatriation   and   initial   reintegration   operations**

Previous   phases   activities   will   be   further   strengthened   and   operationalized   with   a
focus   on   providing   immediate   relief   assistance   to   newly   returned   refugees   while
enhancing   early   recovery   and   development   partnerships.   Activities   specific   to   this
phase   will   include:

- Provision   of   immediate   relief   assistance   such   as   food,   non-­‐food   items   and
shelter   in   accordance   with   international   standards   and   any   nationally   agreed
humanitarian   standards.   Particular   support   will   be   provided   to   the   most
vulnerable   previously   identified   through   a   referral   mechanism   with   the   country
of   asylum.
we use a cutoff distance of 20 km, we assume there is little economic footprint beyond that

distance. Of course, any such distance is arbitrarily chosen, which is why we try different

specifications to explore the spatial heterogeneity by varying this distance (using 10 km, 20 km,

through 50 km) as well as a spatial lag structure (using 0 to 10 km, 10 to 20 km, through 40 to

50 km distance bins). [4]

Second, we collapse the DHS mining data at the district level. [5] The number of districts has

changed over time in Ghana, because districts with high population growth have been split into

smaller districts. To avoid endogeneity concerns, we use the baseline number of districts that

existed at the start of our analysis period, which are 137. Eleven of these districts have industrial

mining. Because some mines are close to district boundaries, we additionally test whether there

is an effect in neighboring districts.

**3.1 Resource data**

The Raw Materials Data are from InterraRMG (2013). The data set contains information on

past or current industrial mines. All mines have information on annual production volumes,

ownership structure, and GPS coordinates on location. We complete this data with exact

---
[4] The distances are radii from mine center point, and form concentric circles around the mine.
[5] The DHS and the GLSS data are representative at the regional level, and not at the district level. Since the
work. This indicates, possibly, that the economy becomes more reliant on cash as a mine starts

producing. It is possible that the difference from the main results presented in table 4 indicates

that agricultural workers are overrepresented among the bottom 40 percent in mining

communities. However, given the issues associated with doing this analysis with repeated cross

section, we should be cautious in interpreting these results.

**6.5 Heterogeneous results, sensitivity and intensity of mining**

In panel B (urban) of table A3 (Annex), we interact our treatment variables ( _active*mine_, _mine_,

_active_ ) with an indicator variable for whether the locality is urban. This allows us to pick up

potential differential effects across urban compared to rural localities. None of the treatment

effects are statistically significantly different between rural and urban areas. [16] In panel C, we

have constructed a new treatment variable _#active*mines_ that counts the number of actively

producing mines within 20 km. Women are sampled within 20 km of one mine (593 women),

within 20 km of two mines (137 women), and within 20 km of three mines (64 women). The

---
[16] Few of the other interaction coefficients are also statistically significant. The interaction between _urban*mine_
18-59 female and male 60+ female and male two 18-59 or 60+ females other households 18-59 female with one or more 60+ individuals two 18-59 females 18-59 female and male other households 0.3% 7.4%

**10. Katowice** 11,591

Note that poviat-level population does not include Ukrainian refugees, who were added to calculate their appropriate shares.

Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on the PESEL database as of September 2024 and GUS population data as of mid-2024.

#### **1.3 Households income sources**

Note: Some groups that constituted less than 2% of households have been omitted.

Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on SEIS (May-June 2024) UNHCR (2024) survey.

**The majority of refugees settled in**

**major cities, especially Warsaw and**

**Wroclaw, and their vicinities.** Eight most
populous poviats in Poland [5] comprising 16% of the host population, are also the top eight poviats in terms of the number of Ukrainian refugees, 29% of whom reside there. This shows that Ukrainian refugees are more concentrated in the largest cities than the host population, as they migrated to the most attractive

---
[5] Seven cities and Poznański poviat.
geographic location data from MineAtlas (2013), where satellite imagery shows the actual mine

boundaries, which allows us to identify and update the center point of each mine. The

production data and ownership information are double-checked against the companies’ annual

reports.

For Ghana, this exercise results in 17 industrial mines tracked over time. We have annual

production levels from 1990 until 2012. As mentioned, Table 1 shows the mining companies

active in Ghana during recent decades, with opening and closing years (although some were

closed in between, and are not presented in the table). Figure 2 shows the geographic

distribution of these mines.

**Figure 2 Gold mines and DHS clusters in Ghana**

**Panel A Gold mines and 20 km buffer zones Panel B Gold mines, DHS clusters, and 100 km buffer zones**
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

#### **Productivity shock rationale**

As Ukrainian refugees entered the labour market, the economy adapted in line with expectations based on scientific literature, resulting in greater specialisation and higher productivity. In a simplistic supply-demand framework akin to the “canonical model”, the influx of Ukrainian refugees should have caused some Polish workers to become unemployed or leave the labour force, or real wages to fall.
Even in the Deloitte D.Climate model, Ukrainian refugees add 0.4 percentage points to the unemployment rate and lower real wages by 1.35% in 2024 when it is not counterbalanced by an additional positive productivity shock. However, this is not what we observe in empirical data. First, Polish citizens employment
**Ukrainian refugees who were outside the labour force before**

**coming to Poland.** We have demonstrated that Ukrainian refugees
who managed the household or engaged in other non-workrelated tasks before arriving in Poland, are much more likely to be unemployed. ALMPs could be targeted at supporting this group and increasing its employment opportunities.

increase corresponds to wage increase, this intervention would add PLN 2.5 billion in value to the economy. This should be considered a lower-bound estimate, as it understates potential benefits. In part, the higher productivity of workers may boost employer profits, further enhanced by increased investment. As far as improved language skills are concerned, we do not anticipate a significant negative impact on wages due to increased competition.
Enhancing language fluency is one way to address occupational downgrading. To avoid double counting, we estimated that around PLN 1 billion has been already included in the previously estimated gains from reduced downgrading.

**A further increase in labour**

**participation of refugees would**

**yield significant macroeconomic**
and might understate their presence.
The only hard data on these flows is the number of Ukrainian workers with social insurance, which nevertheless understates the numbers, as certain kinds of legal work often undertaken by temporary employees did not require it, and some Ukrainians worked in the shadow economy.
The number of workers with Ukrainian citizenship and social insurance increased from just 33 thousand at the end of 2013, to 500 thousand on 30th September 2019, and 627 thousand at the end of 2021. Some of this increase reflects the transitioning of Ukrainians to more regular work arrangements and securing of work permits. The yearly rate of the number of registrations peaked at 106% at the end of 2015, and even with the recent refugee inflow never reached such a high pace again. The most recent data from 30th September 2023 counts 753 thousand workers with Ukrainian citizenship registered for social security, including 225 thousand refugees.

**Source:** Deloitte own elaboration based on ZUS data. Quarter 3 2023 shows the most recent
data available.

13
country before the full-scale war began.
The document primarily includes residency rights and housing access, labour market access, social welfare and medical assistance, as well as access to education and legal guardianship for unaccompanied children and teenagers. Additionally, Ukrainian nationals that become admitted to EU territory are free to move across it for 90 days and are able to choose any EU country where they will make use of the temporary protection. The directive was initially introduced for one year – until 4th March 2023, however in September 2023 it was extended for a second time to remain active until 4th March 2025.
Power BI Desktop Government Leadership Ensuring a whole of governmental approach with oversight and involvement is crucial for successfully identifying and implementing solutions. Effective leadership and coordination at the national and local levels are necessary to ensure systematic inclusion of displacement-affected communities (DACs) across government priorities and planning processes, as well as successfully implementing durable solutions programs.
Pathway #1:
Systematic   engagement   with   key   actors   facilitating   and   supporting   the   peace   process,
such   as   MPC,   is   also   required.   This   will   ensure   that   issues   affecting   the   rights   and
welfare   of   IDPs   and   returning   refugees   are   appropriately   addressed   in   peace
negotiations   and   peace-­‐building   programmes   and   initiatives   such   as   the   MPC-­‐led   Joint
Peace-­‐building   Need   Assessment   (JPNA),   and   that   displaced   populations,   including
women,   have   the   opportunity   to   participate   in   these   processes.

Efforts   will   also   be   required   to   ensure   that   durable   solutions   are   mainstreamed   in   the
implementation   of   the   UN   Strategic   Framework   for   Myanmar   for   2013   to   2015,   and
national   development   plans   and   programmes   as   means   of   catalysing   interventions   by
development   agencies.   Relevant   funding   opportunities,   such   as   the   Peace   Building   Fund
(PBF),   should   also   be   pursued.
Gender analyses revealed that 90% of women and 84% of men reported improvement. Respondents reported that, among children under 18, 85% demonstrated some form of improvement, 13% no improvement, and 2% worsening. Outcomes for children varied by age and gender, with 98% of adolescent girls (12-17 years) showing improvement compared to 78% of boys in the same age group, while among younger children (5-11 years), 83% of girls and 77% of boys showed improvement. Among adults, positive outcomes were relatively consistent 5-11 12-17 18-34 35-59 60+ years old (N=1,661)
**Poverty is associated with tangibly inferior living conditions, worse healthcare coverage,**

**more frequently children being out of school, and having to skip meals**

Refugee households with members living in poverty were found to more often not report feeling safe when walking alone in their neighborhood after dark (18% vs 10% for those not at risk), to significantly more frequently live in collective housing (27% vs 8%), and to feel under pressure to leave their accommodation (29% vs 11%).

Similarly, those with an income below the poverty line were substantially more likely to report lacking separate showers or toilets, having insufficient privacy, being unable to cook or store food in their dwelling.

Twenty percent of respondents in the poverty group said they were unable to access needed medical services over the last 30 days and roughly the same percentage said they were forced to reduce essential health expenditures (including buying drugs) because of lack of funds. Almost half of those missing out on medical support cited unaffordable fees at their clinic or hospital as one of the main reasons.