Ministry of Earth Sciences
Cyclonic Storm " Tauktae " Intensify during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours; very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning
According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department :
The Deep Depression overLakshadweep area and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-north-eastwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 6 hours, and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 14th May, 2021 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 11.6°N and longitude 72.6°E, about 55 km north-northwest of Amini Divi, 290 km west-southwest of Kannur , 1060 km south-southeast of Veraval .
It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
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Date/Time 
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Position

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Maximum sustained surface wind speed 
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Category of cyclonic disturbance
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14.05.21/1730
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11.6/72.6
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50-60 gusting to 70
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Deep Depression
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15.05.21/0530
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12.9/72.7
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70-80 gusting to 90
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Cyclonic Storm
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15.05.21/1730
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14.4/72.4
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95-105 gusting to 115
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Severe Cyclonic Storm
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16.05.21/0530
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15.8/71.9
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125-135 gusting to 150
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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16.05.21/1730
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17.3/71.3
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135-145 gusting to 160
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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17.05.21/0530
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18.5/70.5
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145-155 gusting to 165
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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17.05.21/1730
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19.8/69.7
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150-160 gusting to 175
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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18.05.21/0530
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21.4/69.0
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150-160 gusting to 175
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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18.05.21/1730
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23.0/69.2
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125-135 gusting to 150
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
Warnings:
 Rainfall:
- Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls  at isolated places very likely on 14th May, heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May and heavy falls at isolated places on 16th May.
- Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls  at isolated places on 14th, heavy to very heavy falls at a few places 15th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th& 17th May.
- Tamil Nadu : Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 14th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May.
- Karnataka : Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 14th& 15th and heavy falls at isolated places on 16th.
- Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Goa on 14th, at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan on 15th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th.
- Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over coastal districts of Saurashtra on 16th, at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on 17th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places extremely heavy falls  at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch on 18th.
- Southwest Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 17th& 18th May.
 Wind warning
- Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is very likely over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean on 14th May.
- It is likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 70 – 80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area from 15th May morning.
- Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely along & off Kerala coast on 14th May and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala - Karnataka coasts on 15th May.
- Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely along & off south Maharashtra & Goa coasts on 15th and Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa coasts on16th May.
- Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on 17th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast from the early hours of 18th May and increase gradually thereafter till 18th morning.
 Sea condition
- Sea conditions over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean will be rough to very rough on 14th May.
- Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be High to very High on 15th& 16th May and over northeast Arabian Sea from 17th May.
- Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 14th& 15th, very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 15th& 16th May. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 18th morning.
 Tidal wave Warning:
- Tidal wave of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands on 15th& 16th May.
 Fishermen Warning
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18th May.
- Those who are out at Sea over north & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.
 Impact expected over southeast, eastcentral & northeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives area & Lakshadweep Islands and along & off Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat coasts and also the coastal & adjoining districts of all these States:
- Very rough to high seas, squally weather and gale winds around the system centre will affect shipping vessels and fishing operations.
- Inundation of low lying areas of the Islands of Lakshadweep during 14th to 16th May.
- Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall causing flash floods & landslides over the coastal districts of Kerala, Karnataka & Goa during 14th – 16th May and Saurashtra, Kutch during 18th – 19th May.
- Thunder squalls & Lightning could cause adverse impact on Human & Livestock as well as damage to Loose & unsecured structures along the coast line.
 Advisory:
- Fishermen are advised not to venture into Arabian Sea during 14th – 18th May
- Ships are advised to avoid the area
- Ports along the west coast of India may take necessary precautions.
- Naval base operations may maintain necessary pre-cautions
Tourism activities may be restricted over the area specified for squally weather & rough Sea warning.