Ministry of Earth Sciences
Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts- Red Message --Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “NIVAR” over southwest Bay of Bengal
NIVAR lays centered over southwest BoB about 90 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 150 km east southeast of Puducherry and 220 km south southeast of Chennai
It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph
The Cyclone is being monitored by Doppler Weather Radar at Chennai, Karaikal and Sriharikota
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry during 25th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25th and over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu; Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.
IMD issues warning about damage tothatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses, flying objects, high tidal waves, uprooting of trees/Electricity poles etc.
Total suspension of fishing operations advised
Even after landfall, the system is likely to maintain its cyclone intensity for about 6 hours and weaken gradually : IMD
According to the latest report by Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorology Department, Delhi:
Yesterday’s cyclonic storm “NIVAR” over southwest Bay of Bengal  moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the midnight of yesterday, the 24th November, 2020. Moving further northwestwards, it further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm in the afternoon  of today, the 25th November, 2020 and lay centered over southwest BoB about 90 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 150 km east southeast of Puducherry and 220 km south southeast of Chennai.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.
The Cyclone is being monitored by Doppler Weather Radar at Chennai, Karaikal and Sriharikota.
Forecast track and intensity are given below:
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Date/Time
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Position

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Maximum sustained surface
wind speed 
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Category of cyclonic disturbance
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25.11.20/1430
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11.2/81.0
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115-125 gusting to 140
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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25.11.20/1730
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11.5/80.6
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120-130 gusting to 145
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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25.11.20/2330
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12.0/80.0
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120-130 gusting to 145
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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26.11.20/0530
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12.5/79.4
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90-100 gusting to 110
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Severe Cyclonic Storm
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26.11.20/1130
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13.0/79.0
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55-65 gusting to 75
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Deep Depression
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26.11.20/2330
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13.7/78.5
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35-45 gusting to 55
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Depression
Warnings:
 Rainfall
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over coastal and north interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during 25th and 26th November and southeast Telangana during 26th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry  during 25th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25th and over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu; Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.
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Sub-Divisions
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25 Nov 2020|
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26 Nov 2020|
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27 Nov 2020|
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South Coastal Andhra Pradesh
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Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls
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Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls
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Rainfall at many places
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Coastal & North Interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal
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Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places
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Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places
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Rainfall at many places
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South Interior Karnataka
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Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places
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Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places
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Rainfall at many places
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Rayalaseema
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Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places
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Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places
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Rainfall at many places
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Telangana
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Rainfall at a few places
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Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over southeast Telangana
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Rainfall at many places
 Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from evening of 25th to early hours of 26th November.
- Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing along & off north Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry Karaikal coast and squally wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph along and off south Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and become gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry  and80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur districts during night of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh , Gulf of Mannar and along and off south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during night of 25thto early hrs of 26thNovember, 2020.
 Sea condition
- Sea condition is very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and very rough to high along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It wouldgradually become phenomenal over Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during afternoon of 25thto early hrs of 26thNovember, 2020.
 Strom Surge Warning
- Tidal wave of about 1-1.5m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.
  Damage expected over Nagapattinam, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, , Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts of Tamilnadu and Karaikal & Puducherry:
- Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.
- Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
- Visibility severely affected.
 Damage expected over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts of Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:
- Damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Damage to power and communication lines.
- Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
- Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
 Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations.
- Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.
- People in affected areas to remain in safe places and indoors.
- Judicious regulation of rail, road and air traffic.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.
 POST LANDFALLOUTLOOK FOR INTERIOR DISTRICTS 
- Even after landfall, the system is likely to maintain its cyclone intensity for about 6 hours and weaken gradually.
- Under its influence rainfall at most/many places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls likely to occur over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam; Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26.th Nov. Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated paces likely over remaining districts of north interior Tamilnadu, south Andhra Pradesh and southeast Telangana.
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely to prevail over interior districts  of Tamilnadu and Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh during 26th Nov early morning to forenoon.
- Damage expected over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh:
- Partial damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Partial damage to power and communication lines.
- Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards.
- People are advised to remain indoors/in safe places and cooperate with state government officials and disaster management agencies.
The system is under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly.
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