Ministry of Earth Sciences
Forecast Regarding Monsoon Changes
Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology , Pune, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services , Hyderabad and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting , NOIDA have built a state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmospheric model for  improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale  and  improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale  so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of IMD. Forecasts, early warning of severe weather events and advisories are issued by IMD at national, regional and state levels. In order to provide early warning of severe weather events, IMD has setup a network of state meteorological centres to have better coordination with the state and district level agencies.
Improvement of weather forecasting services is a continuous process. Government has initiated a comprehensive modernization programme for IMD covering up-gradation of  observation systems  advanced data assimilation tools  advanced communication and IT infrastructure  high performance computing systems and  intensive/sophisticated training of IMD personnel to facilitate the implementation of advanced global/regional/ meso-scale prediction models for improving the accuracy of weather forecasts in all temporal and spatial scales and for quick dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala is predicted about 5-10 days in advance. Subsequent arrival of monsoon over other states of the country is predicted 3-5 days in advance. This information along with the crop specific advisories are disseminated to farmers through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based media including short message service  and Interactive Voice Response Service  facilitating for appropriate field level actions. Weather forecast based agrometeorological advisories are disseminated through Kisan portal launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and also under public private partnership.
As per the recent National Council of Applied Economic Research  report, farming community of the country is using the Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva  service products of India Meteorological Department  for critical farm operations Viz. i) Management of sowing ; ii) Changing crop variety ; iii) Spraying Pesticides for disease control ; iv) Managing Irrigation .
The list of research Institutions in the country engaged in forecast/research on monsoon is given below.
1 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology , Pune
3 National centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting, NOIDA
4 Indian Space Research Organisation-Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati.
5 Council of Scientific & Industrial Research- Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bengaluru.
6 Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar
7 Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
8 Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhi Nagar
9 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
10 Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
11 Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
12 Andhra University
13 University of Kolkata
14 Cochin University for Science and Technology
15 Savithribhai Phule Pune University, Pune
16 Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune
To upgrade the forecasting capabilities, various programs are being implemented in IMD under the umbrella scheme “Atmosphere & Climate Research-Modelling Observing Systems & Services ” of the MoES. The projects under ACROSS are continuing programs from previous Plan periods encompassing various activities in an integrated manner to ensure the sustenance & augmentation of observations & enhancement of facilities required for the weather forecasting services.
Allocation of funds made for all programs under ACROSS, including research initiatives for accuracy of monsoon forecast, alongwith expenditure incurred during last five years is tabulated below:
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Total allocation of funds under ACROSS
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Year
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Budget Estimates
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Revised Estimates
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Actual Expenditure
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2015-16
|
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158.18
|
|
174.45
|
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166.68
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2016-17
|
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241.60
|
|
166.41
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144.08
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2017-18
|
|
188.75
|
|
149.15
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134.09
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2018-19
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186.46
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185.89
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175.94
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2019-20
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207.17
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224.73
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206.04
This information was given by Dr. Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences and Health & Family Welfare in a written reply in Lok Sabha today.