Ministry of Earth Sciences
Cyclonic Storm " Tauktae " very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 6 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours; very likely to move north-north-westwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliya around 18th May Afternoon / evening
According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department :
The Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae”  over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved north-north-westwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 15th May, 2021 over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea near latitude 12.8°N and longitude 72.5°E, about190 km north-northwest of AminiDivi, 330 km south-southwestofPanjim-Goa, 930km south-southeast of Veraval  and 1020 km south-southeast of Karachi .
It is very likely to intensify further intoa Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 6 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwardsand cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliyaaround 18th May Afternoon / evening.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
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Date/Time
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Position

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Maximum sustained surface wind speed 
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Category of cyclonic disturbance
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15.05.21/0830
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12.8/72.5
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75-85 gusting to 95
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Cyclonic Storm
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15.05.21/1130
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13.2/72.5
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85-95 gusting to 105
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Severe Cyclonic Storm
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15.05.21/1730
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13.8/72.4
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95-105 gusting to 115
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Severe Cyclonic Storm
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15.05.21/2330
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14.5/72.3
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110-120 gusting to 135
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Severe Cyclonic Storm
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16.05.21/0530
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15.3/72.0
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120-130 gusting to 145
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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16.05.21/1730
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16.5/71.5
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130-140 gusting to 155
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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17.05.21/0530
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18.0/70.7
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145-155 gusting to 165
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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17.05.21/1730
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19.5/70.0
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150-160 gusting to 175
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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18.05.21/0530
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20.7/69.4
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150-160 gusting to 175
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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18.05.21/1730
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22.0/69.1
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145-155 gusting to 165
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
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19.05.21/0530
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24.5/70.0
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70-80 gusting to 90
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Cyclonic Storm
Warnings:
 Rainfall:
- Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over northern Islands on 15th May and heavy falls at isolated places on 16th May.
- Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few placesand extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 15th, heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May.
- Tamil Nadu : Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May.
- Karnataka : Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 15thand heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th.
- Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan on 15th and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Konkan & Goa & adjoining Ghat areas on 16th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May over north Konkan.
- Gujarat:Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from 16thMay afternoon,at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch and extremely heavy falls at isolated places  on 17th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch withextremely heavy falls  at isolated places  on 18th.
- West Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 18th& 19thMay.
 Wind warning
- Squally weather with wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely over Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.
- Gale wind speed reaching 75 – 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph is prevailing over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area. It is likely to increase over east centralArabian Sea becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from 16th May morning.
- Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala coast on 15thMay.
- Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph likely along & off Karnataka south Maharashtra & Goa coasts on 15th and Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off Maharashtra –Goa coasts on16th May.
- Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on 17th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea from 18th morning and along & off Saurashtra& Kutch coasts  and 120 -150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Jamnagar districts of Gujarat from 18th Mayafternoon / evening for subsequent 06 hours.
 Sea condition
- Sea conditions will be very rough over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.
- Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be high to very high on 15th& very high to Phenomenal on16th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17th& 18thMay.
- Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 15th, very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 15th& 16th May. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 18th morning.
 Storm surge warning
Tidal wave of about 2- 3 m above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of Morbi, Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka&Jamnagar districts and 1-2 meters along Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar and 0.5 to 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat.
 Fishermen Warning
- Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala – Karnataka – Goa – Maharashtra coasts.
- Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17th May.
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18th May.
- Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.
 Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath &Jamnagar districts of Gujarat:
- Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
- Widespread damage to salt pans &standing crops, Blowing down of bushy trees.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
- Visibility severely affected.
  Damage Expected over Amreli, Rajkot & Morbi districts of Gujarat:
- Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Minor damage to power and communication lines.
- Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
- Major damage to coastal crops.
- Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
 Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations.
- Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
- People in affected areas to remain indoors.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.