Third, in analyzing the system and how its performance might steadily improve over time as conditions change and improved educational methods develop, it is important to distinguish between the current operations of the system as a whole from the set of emergent innovations in the way the system as a whole operates. As noted above, many social conditions conspire to create a powerful status quo that is relatively homogeneous in: 1) what it produces, 2) how it produces the particular results, 3) how it evaluates those results, and 4) how it finances (or more generally, resources) those activities. While this is a large and stable system, it need not be simple. Indeed, if the environment is complex, the stable system may well be very complex as well. The complexity can arise from the fact that the system has found a way to fill many different stable niches. Indeed, the complexity of the system might help guarantee its stability by providing a place for everyone, with each faction being able to find the right kind of educational supplier. Indeed, the stability of the system as a whole may depend on having enough variation to accommodate particular social niches that would otherwise challenge the current operations. For example, it might be true that the existence of private school options relives some of the strain on public schools to accommodate some very particular kinds of educational demands, and allow the larger public system to concentrate on the more common demands. However complex the existing system is, if the performance of the systems is going to improve overall, it must change: 1) what it is currently producing, 2) how it is producing those results, 3) how performance is being evaluated, and 4) how resources flow through the system. That improvement can come from improving performance in one or more niches, by finding new ways to operate across existing niches, or (ideally) by finding methods that improve performance across all niches. At any given moment, there are hundreds of thousands of adaptations and innovations being proposed or implemented in any national school system. These departures from existing local practices can vary along many different dimensions. They can vary in purpose. They can vary in terms of target population. They can vary in potential scale. They can vary in terms of potential significance. They can vary in terms of where they fit in the operational value chain. They can vary in terms of the amount of collaboration they require. They can vary in terms of whether the ideas are globally new or just locally new. They can vary in terms of their operational and political risk. The point is, however, that these ideas, and the organizations and individuals behind them are the seeds of change, or to change the metaphor, the stepping stones into a future of improved national level performance.

######## Principle 4: Ensuring a Diverse and Strategically Valuable Set of Innovations for Testing

While the existing system can and will produce a great deal of natural variation of its own as educational suppliers adapt to local contexts and niches created by larger systems that authorize, financially support, and evaluate school operations, there is no guarantee that the overall set of innovations stimulated by the current system will include those that can make a significant impact on the system as a whole. In fact, it is likely that that system will generate innovations that are close to current practices, and operating in the mainstream of educational efforts rather than on the boundaries of the system – namely those that are having the most difficult time learning, those who have the