Title: FluSight Offline Hospital Forecast
Domain: health_medicine — Public Health & Epidemiology

Summary: Produce a FluSight-style weekly influenza hospitalization forecast from an archived public snapshot as of 2024-12-14 and write the required submission CSV.

Task prompt:
You are working on a Linux VM to produce a FluSight-style offline influenza hospitalization forecast.

Visible task files:
- `base/input/task_prompt.md`
- `base/input/output_contract.json`
- `base/input/TASK_INSTRUCTIONS.md`
- `base/input/forecast_output_schema.md`
- `base/input/forecast_output_template.csv`
- `base/input/historical_weekly_hospital_admissions_asof_2024-12-14.csv`
- `base/input/locations.csv`
- `base/input/source_provenance.md`
- `base/input/runtime_env/pyproject.toml`
- `base/input/runtime_env/uv.lock`
- `base/software/bootstrap_runtime.sh`
- `base/software/python_with_task_deps.sh`

What you must do:
1. Read `base/input/task_prompt.md` and `base/input/output_contract.json` first.
2. Use the archived historical snapshot in `base/input/historical_weekly_hospital_admissions_asof_2024-12-14.csv` to forecast weekly admissions for the 53 required jurisdictions and four required target weeks.
3. Fill the staged template contract exactly and write one final file under `base/output`:
   - `base/output/submission.csv`
4. If you want the staged Python environment, materialize it with `base/software/bootstrap_runtime.sh` and run Python with `base/software/python_with_task_deps.sh`.

Rules:
- Do not use the internet or external files.
- Do not modify files under `base/input`.
- Output must contain exactly 212 rows with the required columns and integer constraints.
- Write only the required `submission.csv` into the writable output directory.


The agent must:
Read the staged task prompt and output contract before building the forecast.
Use the archived historical admissions snapshot to forecast the 53 required jurisdictions for four weekly horizons.
Keep the CSV schema and row-key contract exactly aligned with the staged template.
Write exactly one final `submission.csv` into the writable output directory.

Software: Python
uv
numpy
pandas

Input files:
name: task_prompt.md
format: markdown
path: input/task_prompt.md
description: Agent-visible benchmark brief for the offline FluSight forecasting task.
name: output_contract.json
format: json
path: input/output_contract.json
description: Exact output filename, columns, row count, and structural constraints.
name: TASK_INSTRUCTIONS.md
format: markdown
path: input/TASK_INSTRUCTIONS.md
description: Submission-supplied instructions describing the forecasting problem.
name: forecast_output_template.csv
format: csv
path: input/forecast_output_template.csv
description: The required row-key template for the final submission.
name: historical_weekly_hospital_admissions_asof_2024-12-14.csv
format: csv
path: input/historical_weekly_hospital_admissions_asof_2024-12-14.csv
description: Archived historical weekly admissions snapshot visible to the agent.
name: locations.csv
format: csv
path: input/locations.csv
description: Canonical jurisdiction codes and names used by the evaluator.
name: source_provenance.md
format: markdown
path: input/source_provenance.md
description: Public provenance note for the archived FluSight historical snapshot.
name: runtime_env
format: uv Python environment
path: input/runtime_env
description: Optional pinned Python runtime manifest used by the staged wrappers.