Give 5 bullish / 5 bearish points. Bulletpoints pref supported with quotes.

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All right, you know, welcome to welcome the givers gab it to you know, today we're gonna be addressing

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You know, we're gonna be addressing a topic in the trenches

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You know, I think

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Something I preach a lot, you know, and it's 4 a.m. On a weekday. I

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Honestly started this exercise working on something completely different

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And then I somehow found myself thinking about memes and then I went down this rabbit hole

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based on some intuition and

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a growing hypothesis

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And

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Yeah, it's it's

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We'll see what ends up becoming the final result like I don't think you know to be clear

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I don't think there's anything prescriptive, you know, there could be actually I mean, I'm not gonna guide toward it

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But you can probably infer

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Yeah, so the copy the topic conversation is around memes I

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Don't think

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frankly, my view is

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That the way that memes are currently being discussed on the timeline

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are

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Are is being done in a very

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In a juvenile way it's

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Which is which is you know for a very nascent asset class

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there's going to be more, you know emotion and

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You know a less objectivity that's to be expected but

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because you agree that

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There is a

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strong case for memes to be included

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In a portfolio. I wanted to take a more systematic approach

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To deconstructing what that could look like

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And trying to use previous case studies as precedent so effectively the the tweet that I'm gonna come out with later

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Is going to identify, you know where I think market sizing looks like for memes

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Whether there's patterns that we can identify with with memes that to that that break that you know

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or close to breaking that one billion dollar threshold and

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You know if there is like kind of a strong case at all or whether it's mostly just rhetoric around

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institutional adoption or at least having it be a core core part of the of

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the

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return barbell

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Like I said, this was like this is kind of unexpected I just you know

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Started working on some stuff and then that curiosity got the better of me and

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you know

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We're here at 4 or 15 a.m. For me. I

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Guess to start

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Yeah, I'm tired I guess to start

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I

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Think my views my view today, right is that succinctly I think memes are

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Memes are I

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Think memes do have a place. Okay, I guess that's that's like this the summary right memes do have a place and

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in a portfolio I

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think that

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It's important to

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You know, I think as an investor

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You

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Generally, I mean if you if you guys have a watch Margin call the movie, right?

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What does what does the you know, what does the dawn say? Yeah, how do you make money?

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right and the three areas that he provided were

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You either have to you know, you've have to cheat be early

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Or I think be smarter than everyone else. And so

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you know, obviously we're not here to cheat and

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You know time at times, you know, we try to be smarter than other people but I think objectively speaking

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This is probably

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The playground of where

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You really have to start considering

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Whether or not memes are a permanent fixture in

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You know 2024 and 2025 moving forward or whether or not they are fat

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Right kind of like, you know how NFTs died out a little bit

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whether they have

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symbolic value and significance

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moving forward and

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What the sizing looks like and I think you know, my short form view today is

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you know, I

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Know this is a no prescription toward any specific meme doing well. This is this is speaking toward memes just as an asset class. I

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Think that there is a lot of asymmetric values still

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And I think a lot of that simply has to do with the fact that it's a very difficult to digest mental model for most people

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You know it

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Fundamentally speaking if you're if you're just a normie or a tradify guy looking at

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Where to place a bet there are multiple

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already multiple assets that you've probably never even heard of and then you have

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Tons and tons of memes, you know back in that back in last cycle. You really just had dote and sheeved

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Right, there were some others but those are the two main ones and that's part of why I think they were able to collect

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So much value at this time around the returns on those two have been pretty stagnant

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Whereas the ones that have done really well

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Seemingly come from nowhere, right? There's a kind of somewhat of a state of entropy with respect to

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No identifying and catalyzing meme growth

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Such that one may even

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consider the possibility that identifying strong memes is is in of itself a

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valuable skill and I actually talked with

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You know in person I actually met with two people over the last month

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Where I think we all we all agreed that

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Identifying and

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Building a macro back or let's say building a macro backbone around majors one and two all selection

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are very distinct skills then

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Identifying a meme runner or rather something that can grow and quickly expand from maybe sub 100 mill

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Toward being you know mid large cap size, which I would classify mid cap as being probably 200 to

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500 600 and then you know large being

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800 million or above let's call it that 700 million above

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It's AI it's a completely different skill set and but I think that

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To the extent that you know, we try to be all weather investors

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right, we try to have a pulse on everything and

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Not ignore things that we simply

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Don't know enough about

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I

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Have tried

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And I like it a lot of backlash

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but I've tried to put together a more systematic lens of evaluating memes and

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The following considerations I'm going to

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Distinctly more like more and more clearly identify in in my Twitter thread

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But the takeaways are effectively that

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Memes are generally a highly uncorrelated asset

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Compared to to other assets to other alts Solana Eve, etc

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If you look at doge and sheep and their correlation against Bitcoin since 2021 the R squared resembles something like 0.2

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It's quite low where something with Solana Solana looks something closer to 0.6

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And actually if you look at Solana's correlation in 2024 specifically to Bitcoin, it's actually 0.8 meaning that

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when

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Bitcoin is moving Solana is similarly moving. It's in the in the similar magnitude and it's in a similar direction

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That's what correlation, you know generally refers to

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such that it's not

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So

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Distinct to say that

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Solana is mostly just a proxy for Bitcoin, which is like, I don't think that is a I don't think that's a conclusion

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That that should be shocking right? In fact, most assets probably indexed to Bitcoin in some capacity. I

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think what is novel is is

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understanding

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the inflection point at when a meme starts indexing harder to

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something like Bitcoin

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versus

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when it's still behaving, you know idiosyncratically or even erratically

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And I tend to think that if you look at something like PopCap for example

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It's had very very low correlation throughout this year

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Compared to some of these other memes and I think that's mostly as a function of size, right?

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And again, it's not a it's more it's an it's an intuitive conclusion that you could probably read yourself

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but

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You know low mid-cap memes they are moving probably proxying

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Closer to something something thematic something something meme-able

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Right, like like someone dying or you know, some celebrity or or some animal like mood aang

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Versus something that is macro driven, which I think the argument

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Which I think is true is that Bitcoin has become more of a macro lever as

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the participant base for something like Bitcoin has expanded

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toward passive capital and

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You know event-driven speculators, which I believe you know is we're very convinced with today

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And more importantly rather than the I think uncorrelated return profile that a

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meme can have

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We can benchmark

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And possibly infer

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When it is the appropriate time to be in a meme versus when it is not and I think that is like the the bigger

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realization here because

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And this is maybe this was surprising to me at least

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If we look at the memes that have really ran up from from functionally zero to where they are today, right so

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Ignoring like bonk and floki because those were memes that were created in 2021

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Ignoring, you know doge and she because those are names that have been elevated beyond 10 billion dollars, right for for effectively their entire exist

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Well, not in their entire existence obviously, but you know, they are they're relics of the last cycle, you know, I think that

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the four or five that are most noteworthy today are

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With Pepe

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Mog

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Mu and popcat right and I think an interesting observation is that

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After these respective coins have peaked they have never approached that all-time high again and they've all peaked at different times

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With peaked and scaled the hardest back in March and then since then it's never approached that all-time high

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With Pepe in approach it had a similar run-up in March not as much as with but

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When whiff tapered off in that April May area, that's when Pepe broke that threshold doubled in size and went to six billion in

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in that time frame

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Mu and Mog

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Reach that 700 800 million mark in the summer

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And still hasn't broken that that previous high

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and popcat kept a dollar and fifty cents

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for eclipsing the one billion mark for the first time

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Hasn't broken. I mean, I would argue with popcat. We're still in that that era possibly of maybe new price discovery

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Although, you know, we will see

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in September

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Okay

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and like I said in these four such windows

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the coin has not broken its previous all-time high and I

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Would argue that price action has largely flattened

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post post haste and

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Interestingly enough, of course, we don't have that many sample sizes to look at but

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These the push for these coins to do well have largely

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Occurred where flows have been stagnant or there's been an air of uncertainty

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Or sorry, they're it's they've been centralized at different air peak at different windows of uncertainty

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And like I said, they largely have

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Taken place at different windows. There's there's there's not really anything coinciding at that period of time

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Such that it's almost as if each coin has its own unique time to shine

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Where you know, the return profile is is best in class for these memes that hit these, you know, large tranches of liquidity I

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Would one could even say that?

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When there was uncertainty around Bitcoin and the ETF product and effectively

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Whether we were still gonna be you know

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What went if the ETF product was gonna be successful number one and then you know after the fractal that we saw

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Where there's a bit of a sell-off whether or not price would recover and the ensuing

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price discovery that happened afterward that was really

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the driving

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de facto factor for something like with

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Right that hit its all-time high in March

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and then for Pepe

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which

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We discussed as being

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Quite strong in April and May

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That was almost directly after

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With resilient performance around

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The Israel Hamas conflict and the liquidation event that happened there

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similar to wiff with the liquidation that happened in March and

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Then I think you guys can see where I'm going with this

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with Mog and Mu

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they happened around the ETH ETF

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Speculation period and the resulting sell-off that kind of happened with you know, something like Germany

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displaying remarkable strength during that period of time and

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Then with popcat which also did very well in August

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By the way did even better in September around rates uncertainty and the mania that drove

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Kind of uncertainty around how price would react

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Invest window a period of time

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And seemingly enough it seems like there's a fifth selection this time around that's gone a lot of fanfare, you know

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The AI coin not gonna name any names. I think we all know which one I'm talking about

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That's hit 300 million

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Around uncertainty and speculation

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for Trump

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And I'm not saying

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You know, this is gonna run up to a billion, but it's an interesting pattern. I think at least to acknowledge

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That there's been a consistent trend across

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The coins that have done very well, and I think in a way

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That most probably that most people probably haven't

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Connected the dots to or at least maybe they have and they've been keeping secret about it

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I mean, I haven't heard it. I haven't heard this level that this is trying to fly yet

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And so I

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Think that that's interesting, you know, I think that's pretty interesting

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And you know, I've made some other conclusions as well

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I

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Think that unexpectedly this is

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You know, it could be pretty interesting. I think that like I said, this was not I

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Don't know how I got here

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But but I have

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And I think it is important to you know

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To be constructive

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Around me. I mean I've my approach in the last two weeks where price has been a little bit more confusing for me

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At least I mean I've done pretty well still I've been short biased honestly for the last

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10 days to 14 days and I'm actually I'm still up even though I've been like because I like I said

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I've been long Bitcoin short everything else and

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I've still been up because

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Like alt ratios against BTC have been underperforming which is you know, I think that's it's quite remarkable

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You know itself

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But I've been really I've been you know

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I had a thought even one or two weeks ago and I actually said this on the what's my edge podcast almost exactly week ago

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that meme coin specifically the clip the low mid cap ones would do well and that was just kind of like a

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There's a thought in my head. I didn't really like substantiated it

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But through the work that I did this evening. I think it is better supported and

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I'm interested to see what the populace thinks

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You know you guys were getting a sneak peek it's

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I'll probably like put the thread out when I wake up or something. Maybe I'll do it now

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I don't know. I don't know you guys you guys have to repay me by retweeting it or liking it

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That's that's your that's your that's your pound of flesh that you got to give

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so

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Yeah, I mean I think that's that's all I have to say I mean, let me know if you have any guys any questions

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I'm gonna be I was I said, I wanted to work on something else, but this is kind of attention. So

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If there's I'll give it like a minute

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Now that I'm gonna go to sleep

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You think the ecosystem matters much for memes

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Base versus Alana versus Tron. I think the winner the winning meme

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Or what has one?

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At some point I think it just bypasses

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Capital capital restraints I'll put it that way involved with the underlying ecosystem

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You know Brett's done well on base for example

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But

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You know, I think it's largely under discussed compared to some of these other memes

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Even though it's it's hit that you know, it's hit quite a quite a high echelon

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Of course I think with newer ecosystems like sweet or aptos Tron it's probably gonna be a little bit harder

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But you know, like I'm no I'm no meme expert, you know, we are simply trying to

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Create a new frontier where there may not be any

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And

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It's still very illustrative and like I said, it's something that I would entertain getting feedback around

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From people who are more knowledgeable than me or have spent more time thinking about memes

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How do you function with like three hours of sleep you will be a god with 78 hours

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Okay, cool, thanks for listening

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Okay, cool, thanks for listening

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Okay, cool. Thanks for listening.