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Canada and some 67,000 pounds

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from Mexico. For more on the

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fallout, though, regarding these

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headlines, let's turn to our

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senior economics reporter, Steve

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Liesman, who's also got some

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flash fed surveys. Hey, Steve.

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>> Yeah, I just got the phone

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with the white House. Karl and I

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can confirm the white House is

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confirming that the Mexican

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tariffs will be delayed by one

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month. Did not get much

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opportunity to talk with the

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official, but the official did

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confirm CNBC can confirm that

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the Mexican tariffs will be

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delayed by one month. So what?

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The Mexican president, Sheinbaum

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said, is accurate about this one

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month delay. Let me just turn

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real quick. Karl, do you want to

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talk about that or should I move

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on and talk about what the

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49
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survey says about the economic

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impact of all this?

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>> Steve. For sure.

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>> So it is hard, Karl, as you

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may know, to get economists to

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agree on anything, but they're

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united in believing that tariffs

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on China, Mexico and Canada will

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reduce U.S. Growth and boost

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inflation, though they disagree

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on how much every one of the 20

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forecasters we surveyed. In a

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flash CNBC fed survey over the

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weekend predicting lower GDP in

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2025 with an average of -0.6%,

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all but two forecasting higher

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inflation in 2025. Prices are

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expected to rise by an average

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half point above what they

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otherwise would have been. The

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range of impacts, though, does

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go from -0 one, in other words,

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a pittance to a very substantial

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-2% for the CPI. The range is,

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as I said, a couple guys came in

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at zero and the upper end is

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1.5%. John Donaldson from

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Haverford writing in with the

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survey. To my knowledge, there

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has never been a happy outcome

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from a trade war. Allen Sinai

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says we have entered dangerous,

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unchartered territory here. Key

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to the impact is how long these

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tariffs may last, or when they

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take effect, with the most

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believing they'll be short term.

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You can see most people think

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they'll be below. They'll be

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lower than six months or only

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last about six months. After

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that. A few say a large chunk

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say they don't know. CNBC asked

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the white House if there had

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been an economic analysis of

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these tariff impacts, and they

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responded that the focus was on

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fentanyl deaths, which don't

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have a price. They sent a

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background sheet with no

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numbers. But it said in part,

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quote, tariffs strengthen the

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American economy, raise wages

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and create jobs. They bring back

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manufacturing to the US and

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reduce trade deficits. Kevin

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Hassett, the president's top

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economic advisor, saying on

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Squawk Box this morning that

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this is a drug war, not a trade

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war. He added that he is

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preparing economic analyzes that

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take into account all of the

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president's proposals, not just

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tariffs, and that he expects

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they will show a positive growth

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impact. We'll be talking about

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some of this stuff with Susan

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Collins, Boston Fed president,

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at the top of the hour. Guys.

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>> I think that will be

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important, Steve, because the

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question is how does the fed

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deal. So now I don't know what

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you think, but it looks like

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this is a sort of one off. It's

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not a gradual increase in

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tariffs or at least at the

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moment. And so that should lead

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to some sticker shock for

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Americans. But it would be hard

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for the fed to respond to that

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if it's coming from tariffs and

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not demand side inflation. I

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think the bigger risk is that

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the unemployment rate rises and

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all the uncertainty and

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potentially new business

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decisions, and they would have

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to respond to that.

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>> I think you just laid out a

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231
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great case, Sarah, and I think

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you agree with me that the fed

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needed to pause in January and

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maybe pause again in March. Here

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we are on the eve of what we

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241
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thought were going to be tariffs

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on Canada and Mexico and China.

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And now we don't have the

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247
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Mexican tariffs. So they're

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249
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going to be delayed at least a

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251
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month. You saw the range of

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253
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forecasts out there from 0 to 1

254
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255
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and a half. When it comes to GDP

256
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257
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or just to CPI. And then from a

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259
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-0.1 to -2 when it comes to CPI.

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261
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So these are very, very

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263
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difficult things for the fed to

264
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265
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come in. They don't they cannot

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play politics but they also

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can't. They have to forecast the

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271
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politics of all this which are

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very difficult. I think you're

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right. There's an unemployment

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aspect to this. And by the way,

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there's also a recessionary

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aspect to this. One of the

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reports I read over the weekend,

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Sarah said that a Mexican with

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287
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the tariffs, a Mexican

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recession, is now the base

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