You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


So Theresa May has reached the end of the road as prime minister. A number of candidates who have thrown their hat in the ring have made it clear that they would rather leave the EU without a deal than the one negotiated by May.

Brexit votes earlier this year have shown that there is a majority in the Commons opposed to a no-deal Brexit – but the procedural options open to them to avoid this outcome are severely limited (unless the Speaker, John Bercow, decides on a more flexible interpretation of parliamentary convention, which is possible).

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MPs were most successful in taking action to avoid no deal when they managed to take control of parliamentary time to pass a bill (the “Cooper bill”) which required the government to ask for an extension to article 50 ahead of 12 April (although May had already planned to do so). However, this opportunity came through provisions inserted into the EU Withdrawal Act, which meant that May had to hold a “meaningful vote” on her deal before she could ratify it, and then hold a subsequent vote on the government’s next steps once her deal was rejected.

A new prime minister who wants to leave without a deal is not required to hold this vote; the provisions of the EU Withdrawal Act no longer apply. They can instead limit any opportunities for MPs to express opposition to no deal, and watch the clock count down to 31 October.

So what could MPs do, faced with this situation? The opposition and backbench business committee both get a certain number of days each parliamentary session in which they can decide what motion will be debated. But the government controls when these happen (they didn’t schedule any between November and April while Brexit was the main focus of parliamentary attention) so a new prime minister could just not give them the time to pass any motions.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘Emergency debates are in the gift of the Speaker, John Bercow.’ Photograph: Uk Parliamentary Recording Unit/EPA

Unlike opposition or backbench business days, emergency debates under standing order 24 are in the gift of the Speaker, not the government. But by convention these motions are neutral – saying that the House has “considered” an issue – which means they are not amendable. The Speaker did suggest in March that he may be willing to be more flexible in interpreting this convention. But motions are not legally binding – so this would need to be followed up with MPs introducing legislation to direct the government. Not impossible. But not straightforward either.

MPs may also look to table amendments to the new prime minister’s Queen’s speech, which sets out the government’s programme for a new parliamentary session (which takes place after parliament is prorogued and a new session begins). But there is no obligation on a new leader to prorogue parliament – if they were concerned that MPs were going to try to stop no deal they could choose to continue the current session, padding it out in much the same way May has done for the last month.

The Commons could decide to refuse to support the government in any business it brings before the house. But if there isn’t a new session, and no significant legislation, this wouldn’t necessarily cause much concern to a new prime minister.

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The other – more obvious – way in which MPs could express opposition to a prime minister intent on no deal would be to hold a no-confidence vote in the government. Provided that there is enough support from Conservative MPs for opposition parties to win such a vote, this would trigger a 14-day period in which someone else could try to form a government which has the support of the Commons. This could be the leader of the opposition, or someone else with the backing of enough MPs. If not, there would be a general election which would need to take place before 31 October to ensure that another prime minister could agree an extension and avoid no deal. So MPs would need to call a no-confidence vote with enough time to allow for the eventuality of a general election before the end of October if they wished to use this route to try to block no deal.

While there is no easy parliamentary route to prevent no deal, the importance of political pressure inside and outside parliament should not be overlooked. Taking the UK out of the EU without a deal, against the wishes of a majority of MPs in parliament, would make it very difficult for a new PM to govern in the weeks and months afterwards.

• Maddy Thimont Jack is a senior researcher at the Institute for Government working on Brexit