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User: {"title": "How did Hurricane Milton form and intensify so much in the Gulf of Mexico?", "body": "I've seen hurricanes regain strength in the Gulf but never form and get so strong.  Just curious if this is unusual.", "comments": ["More could definitely be said by someone with a meteorological background (and hopefully they'll appear to fill in the gaps), but one place to start is the [historical hurricane tracks for the North Atlantic basin](https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=2/63.81/-36.95&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJOb3J0aCBBdGxhbnRpYyBPY2VhbiBCYXNpbiIsInNlYXJjaFR5cGUiOiJiYXNpbiIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIiwiSDIiLCJIMSIsIlRTIiwiVEQiLCJFVCJdLCJ5ZWFycyI6W10sIm1vbnRocyI6W10sImVuc28iOltdLCJwcmVzc3VyZSI6eyJyYW5nZSI6WzAsMTAzMF0sImluY2x1ZGVVbmtub3duUHJlc3N1cmUiOnRydWV9LCJidWZmZXJVbml0IjpbIk1pbGVzIl0sInNvcnRTZWxlY3Rpb24iOnsidmFsdWUiOiJ5ZWFyc19uZXdlc3QiLCJsYWJlbCI6IlllYXIgKE5ld2VzdCkifSwiYXBwbHlUb0FPSSI6ZmFsc2UsImlzU3Rvcm1MYWJlbHNWaXNpYmxlIjp0cnVlfQ==). If you start parsing by category, you can see that originally storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico are rare compared to those that enter the GoM from the Caribbean or Atlantic, but not totally unheard of. However, storms forming in the GoM originally and getting to category 5 are pretty unique, i.e., the only storm I can find in that database that formed in the GoM originally and attained a Category 5 rating was [Anita in 1977](https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=5.41/24.525/-95.7&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJOb3J0aCBBdGxhbnRpYyBPY2VhbiBCYXNpbiIsInNlYXJjaFR5cGUiOiJiYXNpbiIsIm1hdGNoIjoicGFydGlhbCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiXSwieWVhcnMiOltdLCJtb250aHMiOltdLCJlbnNvIjpbXSwicHJlc3N1cmUiOnsicmFuZ2UiOlswLDEwMzBdLCJpbmNsdWRlVW5rbm93blByZXNzdXJlIjp0cnVlfSwic2VsZWN0ZWRTdG9ybUlEIjoiMTk3NzI0Mk4yNzI3MiIsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjpmYWxzZSwiaXNTdG9ybUxhYmVsc1Zpc2libGUiOnRydWV9), but obviously that storm took a very different track than Milton. That being said, at the time of writing, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) is definitely an outlier in many ways, e.g., it holds the record for the rapid intensification within the GoM and is number three in terms of speed of intensification in the Atlantic basin as a whole and is similarly the fifth strongest recorded storm (based on pressure) in the Atlantic basin (which could change if it Milton re-intensifies after its encounter with Yucatan peninsula). It's track it is also strange, which you can get a sense of again from those historical tracks, i.e., a hurricane that forms in the western GoM and then heads mostly east is weird to say the least.\n\nIt's also hard to talk about Milton and not talk about the extreme sea surface temperatures of much of the Atlantic Basin at the moment, the GoM included. There have been various news bits about this basically since the beginning of this year (e.g., [1](https://www.wired.com/story/ocean-temperatures-keep-shattering-records-and-stunning-scientists/), [2](https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/2/28/24085691/atlantic-ocean-warming-climate-change-hurricanes-coral-reefs-bleaching), [3](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/), [4](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/climate/ocean-heat-records.html), [5](https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/05/ask-scientist-hot-oceans), [6](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention)) and some specifically highlighting these temps in promoting rapid intensification of storms like Milton (e.g., [7](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/07/climate/gulf-mexico-ocean-temperature.html)). This is unquestionably a key factor in driving aspects of Milton's formation and strength as, in a very simple sense, warm water is the fuel for hurricanes so warmer water on average opens the possibility for stronger storms that intensify more quickly (but we also need to balance this with other factors, e.g., wind shear, etc. that can dampen the ability for hurricanes to form or persist).\n\nAdditionally, while it's important to consider that all of these factors vary year-to-year (e.g., sea surface temperatures), it's also pretty clear from a variety of data sources that anthropogenic climate change is changing many of these details. With specific reference to hurricanes, while there isn't evidence of changes in frequency of storms, the [rapid intensification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_intensification) of storms (like Milton and Helene a few weeks ago experienced) is becoming more common and is linked to climate change driven effects - like increases in average sea surface temperatures (e.g., [Holland & Bruyere, 2014](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0), [Balaguru et al., 2018](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077597), [Bhatia et al., 2022](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34321-6)). From the literature, and in the context of both Milton and Helene, it's also worth noting that the GoM and western Caribbean are known hotspots for rapid intensification (e.g., [Wang et al., 2017](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3537-9)). So in at least that context, the general possibility of storms forming in these regions and rapidly intensifying is not uncommon, even if the exact rates, tracks, and strengths are uncommon.\n\n Finally, with respect to the uncommonness of a storm like Milton (or Helene), the trick with where we are at the moment is that our past statistics are becoming less useful in many ways as anthropogenic climate change progresses in terms of understanding the probability of particular events. So while it's certainly valid to describe a storm like Milton as \"unusual\" for a variety of reasons in the context of historical data, the extent to which it actually will be unusual in the near future is a much harder question to answer.", "Thanks for typing all this out - very informative and interesting (and scary!)", "It would be difficult for a hurricane to build or sustain such energy in the gulf itself; it\u2019s simply too narrow.  A storm centered in it would have its edges over land, weakening it.\n\nThat said, Baja California has seen its fair share of strong storms.  They just typically come from further south rather than the gulf next to it.", "[removed]", "Im a meteorologist.  Before I get into the specifics of Milton I\u2019ll lay out how hurricanes form and get their energy. First, a hurricane is fundamentally different than a low pressure system that moves over land. Those low pressure systems derive their power by the temperature contrast between the warm and cold side of the low. The stronger that gradient, the stronger the low. \n\nHurricanes are more akin to a giant thunderstorm. That thunderstorm will keep on increasing in size and intensity as long as it remains in a favorable environment. For hurricanes that\u2019s in an area of low wind shear (minimal changes of wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere) and warm unperturbed ocean water.\n\nHurricanes are positive feedback loops in that the warm water creates an unstable environment. Storms form and then release heat in the atmosphere. This release of latent heat pushes the clouds outward and that process creates an area of low pressure. As the latent heat release continues the process becomes more intense and eventually an eye forms in the area of low pressure. \n\n\nSo Milton in particular had several things going for it. As other comments have said, the sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is near or above record warmth. That provides amble moisture to get the process started. In addition to this, a large trough was building across eastern Mexico which provided a broad area of lift over the western Gulf of Mexico. As the cyclone started up this broad lift helped jumpstart the process. The trough is also moving with Milton, and that is minimizing wind shear. For now. That will change. \n\nOnce Milton started to get going there was nothing to stop it. The sea temperature was very warm. No other hurricanes have been in that area to perturb the water and the trough provided reinforcing lift. Sitkowski et al has a nice paper (cited) about how an eye forms and reforms through a process called an eye wall replacement cycle. This cycle is caused by an imbalance in circulation of the hurricane that causes the eye to collapse before a reorganization occurs. This weakens the hurricane temporarily but also bolsters the expansion of the clouds outward. When the new eye forms it is larger and the wind field has grown. \n\nThe paper indicates that the eyeball replacement cycle can happen for a variety of reasons, but the root cause is that something in the atmosphere causes the circulation to be unbalanced. With Milton it appears the trough pivoting over the area provided the ideal conditions to allow the eye to be in a sort of balance. This resulted in a very small eye (~5 mile wide). The small eye means the pressure gradient across the storm is more intense and therefore the winds are stronger. \n\nSo the stage was set with the very warm water due to climate change but the weather pattern allowed Milton to fully utilize that warm water.  Of note, per the National Hurricane Center\u2019s final report on Wilma (the current holder of the lowest pressure in the Atlantic) a very similar thing happened with a trough. This resulted in a hurricane with a 2 mile wide eye and an insanely tight pressure gradient.  Again, elements of climate change set the stage but the weather enhanced a volatile situation. \n\nNow with Milton the storm will outpace the movement of the trough. That means that it will move into an environment with different wind directions towards Florida. While this wind shear is beneficial for organizing severe thunderstorms, it is not good for hurricanes. So the forecast calls for some waking before it arrives. Obviously this is good for Florida, but this process will also cause eyeball replacement cycles. So while the hurricane overall will weaken, the wind field will broaden. This creates more of a threat for storm surge.  Don\u2019t get me wrong. Even \u201cweaker\u201d is still likely to be the strongest hurricane the Tampa Bay Area has seen since 1921. \n\nFinally I\u2019d be remiss to not reinforce that this is a potentially life threatening situation for west central Florida. I don\u2019t say that lightly. This storm is in a very favorable meteorological environment and will be worse than anything in recent history. For those in the area follow  the forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (https://nhc.noaa.gov) and listen to local officials. \n\n\nAlso sorry if formatting sucks. I\u2019m on mobile and it\u2019s hard to get my tome formatted correctly. \n\nSources: \n\nhttps://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/micro-articles/hurricane#:~:text=As%20the%20warm%2C%20moist%20air,diverge%20away%20from%20the%20storm.\n\nhttps://rammb2.cira.colostate.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Sitkowski_etal_2012.pdf\n\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL252005_Wilma.pdf", "Especially that last part. Storms like this might not be unusual in the future.", ">Does a hurricane like this cool the ocean it came from?\n\nHurricanes can leave behind a \"cold wake\", in short, it can stir up enough deeper water etc. to leave a trail of (relatively) colder water behind (e.g., [Sanabia & Jayne, 2020](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019AV000161)). The details of which storms leave cold wakes or don't is starting to get to the limit of my knowledge at least, but the results of Sanabia & Jayne indicate that (unsurprisingly) there are a lot of variables at play so it's reasonable to think that not *every* storm would leave a clear cold wake and would instead come down to the details of the particular storm.\n\n> Like to the point it's harder for a second hurricane to spring from the same spot?\n\nIt's not maybe that straight forward. [Karnauskas et al., 2021](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL091676) suggests that cold wakes can reduce the frequency of moderate hurricanes but actually may increase the frequency of intense events.", "Thank you so much for this thorough answer.", "Another factor is that the water is very cold off the California/Mexico coast, because of the currents flowing down from the Arctic.\n\nOn the eastern seaboard, you have the Equatorial current bringing in warm water to the Atlantic coast, and then flowing northwards as the Gulf Stream; plus the Gulf itself has the same circulating warm currents from the Equatorial sources.   There's a lot of thermal energy there to feed hurricanes.\n\nPacific hurricanes have to form over the equator, but as they move up the coast, they lose a lot of energy.   Mind you, they still pack a punch, and \"atmospheric rivers\" are a thing, but it's nowhere near as destructive as Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes.", "When do you think we'll see a cat 5 around the Gulf of California? Is that area capable of such a storm?"]}
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