Hi, Can you create a introduction based on this instruction:
Goal of the exercise
Applying and understanding a simple statistical land use model Developing skills in raster management and using Raster Calculator Understanding the effects of building restrictions and direct payments for agriculture on settlement development.
Background

In Switzerland, one square meter of soil is sealed every second, in part due to the construction of holiday houses in touristic mountain areas such as Davos. Growing settlements lead to a loss of valuable landscapes and habitats, as well as agricultural surfaces. In particular, relatively flat and productive agricultural land is being lost, and mountain farmers either retreat to steeper areas, which are more difficult to manage, or abandon their farms and switch to tourism.

Since authentic landscapes are important for attracting holiday guests, a restricted settlement development is necessary. High direct payments for agriculture, particularly in mountain areas, are an important instrument to keep farmers from abandoning their farms.

By voting for the “Zweitwohnungsinitiative” in 2012, the Swiss decided for strict restrictions on the construction of holiday houses. To slow settlement growth in mountain regions, the share of holiday houses in residential areas within a municipality is limited to 20%.

Modelling theory

Statistical land use models are based on the assumption that the transformation between land use types is influenced by spatially explicit ecological and socio-economic factors. Depending on the combination of factors in a specific location, a change of land use is more or less probable. Logistic regressions are used to investigate these dependencies.

We define 𝑦 𝑡0 , 𝑡1 in a location as 𝑦 𝑡0 , 𝑡1 =1 when a location changes from land use a at t 0 to land use b at t 1 and 𝑃 𝑡0 , 𝑡1 the probability that this land use change occurs. Performing a logistic regression means estimating the coefficients from the
Task

1. Model the future settlement development in Davos in 2009 under the assumption that all agricultural cells (except summer pastures) with a transformation probability above 75% will be transformed into settlement. For that, you will have to calculate the log-odds of change based on the regression data, then translate it into probabilities. Extract the agricultural cells with a transformation probability above 75%.

2. The settlement development will be limited by the “Zweitwohnungsinitiative“. Depending on how strictly it will be implemented, only 10, 20, or 50 % of the cells selected in step 1 with the highest probability will be transformed. In the second step, map the settlement development under these restrictions.

3. In the third step, assume there will be a change in the direct payments for agriculture (i.e.

land use types 2 and 3). In 1997, the subsidies included a basic (670 CHF/ha) plus additional subsidies depending on slope and other factors. In the new agricultural policy, the basic subsidies (670 CHF/ha in 1997) will be cancelled, whereas the bonus for agriculture steep slopes will increase by 410 CHF for steep slopes between 18° and 35°, and 620 CHF/ha for slopes above 35°. Map the expected settlement development under these conditions (i.e. with a new map of direct payments), assuming that cells with a transformation probability above 75% will be transformed into settlement.