Can you summarise this text please? Peter Nyberg predicts that both the anti-inflation measures and the new easing of monetary policy may, through market expectations, at some point cause a rapidly expanding financial crisis in a debt situation like the current one.

Peter Nyberg, PhD in Political Science, retired Director General of the Financial Markets Department of the Ministry of Finance, estimates that the Eurozone may be facing an "inevitable financial crisis".

In his blog, he predicts that both the anti-inflation measures and the new easing of monetary policy may, through market expectations, at some point cause a rapidly expanding financial crisis in a debt situation like the current one.

"As indebtedness increases, smaller and smaller declines in asset values are enough to create solvency problems. At the same time, it can be estimated that with the increase in debt, the nervousness of various institutions about the increase in market sensitivity also increases. Keeping the interest rate high may be perceived as a sign of a fall in collateral values. The new easing of monetary policy may be interpreted as a sign of a higher than expected systemic risk... It is by no means impossible that this type of inevitable financial crisis situation is where we are now," Nyberg writes.

He reminds us that financial crises rarely arise because of generally known risks, but rather because of disruptions that come as a surprise to most people.

"According to a fairly general view, market participants tend to take either risks or risk amounts that they do not recognize in advance. The authorities do not recognize the situation either. When a disturbance even triggers the risk position of an individual operator, speculation about the next cases begins, testing public confidence. If the process produces a change in the general willingness to take risks, there are e.g. the decrease in asset and collateral values and the solvency and financing problems of the most heavily leveraged financial houses."

Nyberg emphasizes that right now it generally seems that many central banks are giving weight in their monetary policy to suppressing inflation in particular.

"Their hope is that the economic situation would weaken just enough to slow down inflation, but not so much that the result would be a significant or uncontrollable drop in production."

The difficulty of such fine-tuning of economic policy has already led many observers and market commentators to predict the end of austerity as early as autumn. Some still anticipate that the European Central Bank, in particular, is ready to reduce inflation by tightening monetary policy, even at the risk of a recession.

However, Nyberg himself considers this unlikely.

"Over-indebtedness and the problems caused by it are seen very widely as a result of activities made possible by central banks. If the central banks appear to be also the cause of the resulting recession, their independent decision-making power will almost certainly be politically questioned," he points out. Nyberg also refers to the unstable geopolitical situation.

"Western countries' conflict with Russia and China, as well as green transformation investments, would require a strong economy, especially now. Even without a recession, the internal political situation of the major Western countries is unsettled. In addition, the real basic task of the ECB is to keep the euro area together at any cost, which means that it ultimately works on the terms of the least adaptable member countries."