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In the brief window between the end of the government shutdown six weeks ago, and the news tsunami that drowned it out when the media realized how bad Healthcare.gov was, the conventional wisdom held that the GOP would resist the temptations of brinkmanship in the new year and extend funding for the government without any drama. Part of the conventional wisdom was rooted in political math -- the shutdown was bad, there's no way they'd do it again, months closer to the midterms. Part of it was regression to the mean bias. Part of it was that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said so: “There’s no education in the second kick of a mule. The first kick of the mule was in 1995; the second one was the last 16 days. A government shutdown is off the table. We’re not going to do it … We’re not going to do this again in connection with the debt ceiling or with a government shutdown.” Advertisement: Then as Affordable Care Act woes mounted, the conventional wisdom hardened. Republicans weren't going to surrender the gift of the Obama administration's blundering rollout of the Affordable Care Act by shutting down the government. All reasonable inferences. And now, the offices of Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., are baiting reporters with the possibility that the two chairs of the House and Senate Budget Committees will reach an agreement to pay down a few years of sequestration with a mix of other modest spending cuts and non-tax revenues spread out over many years. All that would be left to do then is pass some appropriations before Jan. 15 and we'd be in the clear. With all that out there, if I had to wager now, I'd put my money on the conventional wisdom. Advertisement: But I'd also want to find a safe hedge. And the reason, again, is the Affordable Care Act. The relationship between the ACA rollout and the looming budget deadlines isn't quite as simple and static as it appeared in October. Another shutdown would of course un-reverse the political reversal of fortune Republicans have enjoyed thanks to Obamacare, and that creates a huge incentive for Republican leaders to cut conservative hard-liners loose and strike a deal with Democrats on the budget. But a few things are pulling in the opposite direction. Advertisement: One is just the natural inclination of parties to overreach when they believe they have the upper hand. Republicans have already wiped tax revenues off the table, and conservatives aren't exactly wild about raising revenue through fees and sales either, if it means using the proceeds to increase spending. They're nevertheless pressing Democrats to agree to Medicaid cuts -- something Democrats have been reluctant to do under any circumstances, but particularly if the tax side of the ledger tallies zero. If Murray and Ryan manage to reach an agreement, conservatives groups -- Heritage, Club for Growth and others -- will very likely savage it, and if past is