You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


Anonymous asked:

i can’t remember what ingredients were in moon tea, could you talk about them and how it will kill you?

westeroswolf asked:

Is there something poisonous in moon tea? Not that I was planning on visiting Hoster Tully’s tea shop anytime soon :)

Per Lysa Tully, who should know, the ingredients in moon tea are: “tansy and mint and wormwood, a spoon of honey and a drop of pennyroyal.”

Mint is safe. Honey is safe.

Tansy, on the other hand, is toxic as hell, as is pennyroyal. Wormwood is slightly less poisonous, but is toxic in large amounts, attacking the nervous system. Yes, all of these herbs were used for medicine by medieval people and a few rare herbal practitioners today, but they used mercury as a remedy too.

Note, GRRM is aware of the dangerousness of these herbs.

Tansy and pennyroyal are two powerful (and DANGEROUS) natural abortifactants. Carelessly used, however, they can kill, so I was purposely vague and added a few fantasy touches to “moon tea.” I did not want anyone trying them in real life.

So, moon tea is ~fantasy~, but don’t try it at home. And there’s really good reasons for that.

Some info about tansy:

Tansy’s main constitute, thujone is toxic, and very concentrated in the oil. Thujone also has a potent action on the uterus, its a uterine stimulant. Thujone […] is known to be mutagenic, meaning that it disrupts normal DNA and cell replication, causing birth defects. While all abortifacient herbs are dangerous, Tansy is especially toxic. Not to be used by women who normally menstruate heavily, anyone with epilepsy, liver problems, kidney problems, it is also phototoxic (meaning it can make skin extra sensitive to sunlight and may cause burning of the skin, or rash if skin is exposed to the sun). The essential oil should never be taken internally, it is lethal in small amounts. – source

This is a strong herb and it has been known to cause side effects even when used in small amounts, causing temporary lumps in the breasts, can cause women who normally bleed heavily to hemorrhage. And those who’ve had epileptic seizures should not use this or any herb which contains the chemical thujone. – source

Uncontrolled usage of tansy, depending on the quality of the herb, can result in the absorption of thujone in toxic amounts, even at normal dosages. […] There have been reports of deaths in women attempting to use the tea as an abortifacient. Tansy essential oil is poisonous and should not be used under any circumstances. In large doses, Tansy becomes a violent irritant, and induces venous congestion of the abdominal organs. – source

Pennyroyal:

A woman would have to drink enormous quantities of whole herb tea to to stimulate an abortion, so there is little chance of an accidental overdose, however it is still best avoid use while pregnant. Pennyroyal oil, however is extremely toxic, doses a small 1 teaspoon can cause convulsions. Drinking pennyroyal oil in an effort to abort a pregnancy has resulted in death. Never, ever, never take pennyroyal oil internally for any reason. – source

Side effects are; nausea, numbness in extremities, dizziness, sweating. Too much can be highly toxic. Pennyroyal has been used traditionally to induce abortions. However, pennyroyal is dangerous and has led to serious adverse effects and death. The essential oil of pennyroyal should never be used internally even in small amounts it is a deadly poison. Anyone with kidney disease or damage should not use Pennyroyal. –source

(more info on the deadliness of pennyroyal here and here)

Wormwood:

Not for long term use, do not exceed recommended doses, excessive consumption could be toxic. Pregnant women should not take as it can cause uterine contractions. Wormwood can be used in those cases where quick parasite intervention outweighs the risk of toxicity, but with an abundance of caution and care. This is because wormwood contains an assortment of volatile oils, bitter principles and tannins that can be irritating to the kidneys, and in extreme cases may even damage the nervous system. The FDA lists wormwood unsafe for internal use. – source

(some more info about wormwood’s toxicity and danger as an abortifacient here)

And an important note for herbal abortifacients in general:

Abortificants are strong, powerful herbs and should be used only for short periods of time, if used at all; they are hard on the body, they can stress the kidneys and liver and often they will make one feel ill. Many of these herbs are toxic, and are not considered safe to use on a regular basis or for long periods of time. They should not be taken on a monthly basis as a contraceptive. – source





Now, it’s possible that Lysa’s miscarriages and Sweetrobin’s epilepsy were mostly due to Jon Arryn’s age, but you can’t discount the effect the moon tea had on her system. Recall Hoster Tully, in his illness, was raving about tansy and “the blood”, so Lysa almost certainly had a very strong reaction to the moon tea (probably due to the strength needed to induce abortion as opposed to mere contraception), including hemorrhage and perhaps damage to her uterus.

So even with the “it’s ~maaagic~” explanation, whenever I see fics where someone takes moon tea every month (or every time she has sex!), I shudder. I know ficcers (and even GRRM) use it as the equivalent of a birth control pill or a morning-after pill, but I can’t help but think there are long-term medical effects that would be really bad for the character’s health, and perhaps her future fertility or even her children. And believe me, this is not coming from an anti-abortion or anti-birth control standpoint. I’m pro-choice etc., but I’m also pro-science. Even if ASOIAF is basically “lol, science”.

If you really want your female character to have sex without fear of consequences (I have no problem with that), please have the moon tea provided by a maester or wise woman/wood witch, don’t say she’s brewing it herself. Or at least please say she’s been trained in proper preparation and that she has to be careful brewing it. (And of course you don’t have to listen to me, but it would ease my pedantic mind.)

And, please, please, please, no matter what the legal situation is with abortion where you live, don’t ever use these herbs on your own. Especially not in the moon tea recipe.