You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


Q:

How to choose or optimize the labels so that we get better multiclass classification results?

Recently I was working on a Kaggle project "Prudential Life Insurance Assessment" where the competitors talk about changing the labels so as to get the better metric.
In that particular competition, the target has 8 classes (1-8), but one of the guy uses the different labels (-1.6, 0.7, 0.3, 3.15, 4.53, 6.5, 6.77, 9.0) or another example they use [-1.6, 0.7, 0.3, 3.15, 4.53, 6.5, 6.77, 9.0] instead of [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8].
I was wondering how to come up with these magic numbers?
I am willing to receive any ideas/tricks/suggestions to do such transformations. Inputs are highly appreciated!
Example Code
# imports
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import xgboost as xgb
from sklearn import metrics
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

# data
df = sns.load_dataset('iris')
df['species'] = pd.factorize(df['species'])[0]
df = df.sample(frac=1,random_state=100)

# train test split
X = df.drop('species',axis=1)
y = df['species']
Xtrain,  Xtest, ytrain, ytest = train_test_split(X,y,stratify=y,random_state=100)

# modelling
model = xgb.XGBClassifier(objective='multi:softprob', random_state=100)
model.fit(Xtrain, ytrain)
preds = model.predict(Xtest)
kappa = metrics.cohen_kappa_score(ytest, preds, weights='quadratic')

print(kappa)

My thoughts

There are literally infinite numbers that labels can take, how to transform [1-8] to [x-y]?

Should we just randomly choose 8 numbers and check kappa for all of them. It seems most irrational thought and will probably never work.

Is there some kind of gradient descent method for this? Maybe not, just an idea.

Reference Links

https://www.kaggle.com/zeroblue/bayesian-ridge
https://www.kaggle.com/mariopasquato/linear-model/code
https://www.kaggle.com/c/prudential-life-insurance-assessment/discussion/18996

A:

The very first link in your question actually contains the answer:

#The hardcoded values were obtained by optimizing a CV score using simulated annealing

Also later the author comments:

At first I was optimising the parameters one by one but then I switched to optimising them simultaneously by a combination of grid search and simulated annealing. I am not sure I found a global maximum of the CV score though, even after playing around with various settings of the simulated annealing. Maybe genetic algorithms would help.

The second link's solution has the same values because (likely) the author copied them from the first solution (see in their comments):

Inspired by: https://www.kaggle.com/mariopasquato/prudential-life-insurance-assessment/linear-model/code

To put it simply - you can just treat these values as if they are metaparameters of your learning algorithm (well, they are). This way you can define a function F(metaparameters) such that to compute single value of it you do full training on your training set and output loss on validation set (or better just use n-fold cross validation and use CV loss). Then your task becomes pretty much to optimize function F in a way to find the best set of metaparameters using whatever optimization method you like - e.g. the first solution's author claims they used grid search and simulated annealing.
Small example with no meta-tuning for the optimization itself:
import numpy as np
cnt = 0
def use_a_function_which_calls_training_and_computes_cv_instead_of_this(x):
    global cnt
    cnt += 1
    return ((x - np.array([-1.6, 0.7, 0.3, 3.15, 4.53, 6.5, 6.77, 9.0]))**2).sum()

my_best_guess_for_the_initial_parameters = np.array([1.,2.,3.,4.,5.,6.,7.,8.])
optimization_results = scipy.optimize.basinhopping(
    use_a_function_which_calls_training_and_computes_cv_instead_of_this,
    my_best_guess_for_the_initial_parameters,
    niter=100)
print("Times function was called: {0}".format(cnt))
print(optimization_results.x)

Example output:
Times function was called: 3080
[-1.6         0.7         0.3         3.15        4.52999999  6.5
  6.77        8.99999999]

You will quite possibly want to experiment with the parameters of the optimization itself, maybe even write your custom optimizer and/or callback for making steps. But it also possible that even default parameters will work for you at least to some degree. If you find the time to make one calculation of the function too much you can e.g. try to do initial optimization with a smaller subset of your full data, etc.