Maximum Drawdown (Recession): nan%

--- Overfitting Assessment ---

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[4], line 641
    638     fits = [ind.fitness.values[0] for ind in population]
    640     # Callback to print instant best portfolio
--> 641     callback(gen, population, fits)
    643 print("\nEvolution Complete!\n")
    645 # Retrieve and display the best portfolio found

Cell In[4], line 546, in PrintBestPortfolio.__call__(self, gen, population, fitnesses)
    543 threshold_volatility = 0.05  # 5% difference in volatility
    545 train_val_return_diff = cumulative_return_train - cumulative_return_val
--> 546 train_test_return_diff = portfolio_cum_return_train - portfolio_cum_return_test if 'portfolio_cum_return_test' in locals() else 0
    547 train_val_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_val
    548 train_test_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_test if 'portfolio_volatility_test' in locals() else 0

NameError: name 'portfolio_cum_return_train' is not defined

fix the above bugs return me full fixed code without any explnatation
# Install required packages
!pip install yfinance pandas numpy beautifulsoup4 requests tqdm deap matplotlib lxml

# Import necessary libraries
import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import random
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
import requests
from tqdm import tqdm
import sys
import warnings
import multiprocessing
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from deap import base, creator, tools, algorithms

# Suppress warnings for cleaner output
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

# Set random seed for reproducibility
RANDOM_SEED = 42
random.seed(RANDOM_SEED)
np.random.seed(RANDOM_SEED)

# Function to fetch S&P 500 tickers from Wikipedia
def get_sp500_tickers():
    url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies'
    response = requests.get(url)
    if response.status_code != 200:
        raise Exception("Failed to fetch S&P 500 tickers from Wikipedia.")
    soup = BeautifulSoup(response.text, "lxml")
    table = soup.find('table', {'id': 'constituents'})
    tickers = []
    for row in table.findAll('tr')[1:]:
        ticker = row.findAll('td')[0].text.strip()
        # Replace '.' with '-' for tickers like BRK.B
        ticker = ticker.replace('.', '-')
        tickers.append(ticker)
    return tickers

# Function to calculate Maximum Drawdown
def max_drawdown(series):
    try:
        roll_max = series.cummax()
        drawdown = (series - roll_max) / roll_max
        return drawdown.min()
    except:
        return -0.0

# Function to calculate Sortino Ratio
def sortino_ratio(returns, target=0):
    downside = returns[returns < target]
    if len(downside) == 0:
        return 0  # No downside risk; assign a neutral value
    expected_return = returns.mean() * 252
    downside_risk = np.sqrt((downside ** 2).mean()) * np.sqrt(252)
    return (expected_return - target) / downside_risk if downside_risk != 0 else 0

# Function to calculate Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
def conditional_value_at_risk(returns, confidence_level=0.95):
    if len(returns) == 0:
        return 0
    var = np.percentile(returns, (1 - confidence_level) * 100)
    cvar = returns[returns <= var].mean()
    return cvar

# Function to generate portfolio weights within constraints
def generate_weights(n, lower=0.10, upper=0.20, max_attempts=1000):
    """
    Generates a list of weights that sum to 1.0 with each weight between lower and upper bounds.
    """
    for _ in range(max_attempts):
        weights = np.random.uniform(lower, upper, n)
        weights /= weights.sum()
        if all(lower <= w <= upper for w in weights):
            return weights
    raise ValueError("Unable to generate weights within constraints after multiple attempts.")

# Function to label economic cycles
def label_economic_cycles(dates):
    recession_periods = [
        ('2001-03-01', '2001-11-30'),
        ('2007-12-01', '2009-06-30'),
        ('2020-02-01', '2020-04-30')
    ]
    labels = []
    for date in dates:
        # Remove timezone information if present
        if date.tzinfo is not None:
            date = date.replace(tzinfo=None)
        label = 'Growth'
        for start, end in recession_periods:
            if pd.to_datetime(start) <= date <= pd.to_datetime(end):
                label = 'Recession'
                break
        labels.append(label)
    return labels

# Parameters
START_DATE = '2000-01-01'
END_DATE = '2024-10-30'
NUM_ASSETS = 8  # Number of stocks in the portfolio
LOWER_WEIGHT = 0.10
UPPER_WEIGHT = 0.20
RISK_FREE_RATE = 0.017  # Approximate risk-free rate (e.g., 10-year US Treasury yield)

# Step 1: Get S&P 500 tickers
print("Fetching S&P 500 tickers...")
tickers = get_sp500_tickers()
print(f"Number of tickers fetched: {len(tickers)}")

# Step 2: Download historical data with dynamic start date
print("Downloading historical data...")
failed_tickers = []
successful_tickers = []
data = pd.DataFrame()

ticker_first_dates = {}

for ticker in tqdm(tickers, desc="Downloading tickers"):
    try:
        df = yf.download(ticker, start=START_DATE, end=END_DATE, progress=False)['Adj Close']
        if df.empty:
            failed_tickers.append(ticker)
        else:
            data[ticker] = df
            successful_tickers.append(ticker)
            ticker_first_dates[ticker] = df.first_valid_index()
    except Exception as e:
        failed_tickers.append(ticker)

print(f"\nTotal tickers with successful data download: {len(successful_tickers)}")
print(f"Total tickers failed to download: {len(failed_tickers)}")
if failed_tickers:
    print(f"Failed tickers: {failed_tickers}")

# Determine the earliest start date among all successful tickers
if ticker_first_dates:
    earliest_date = min(ticker_first_dates.values())
    print(f"Earliest available data starts from: {earliest_date.date()}")
    
    # Adjust the dataset to start from the earliest_date
    data = data.loc[earliest_date:]
    
    # Forward fill to propagate last valid observation
    data.fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
    # Backward fill to handle any remaining NaNs at the start
    data.fillna(method='bfill', inplace=True)
    print(f"Data shape after adjusting start date and dropping incomplete data: {data.shape}")
else:
    print("No data available after processing tickers.")
    sys.exit()

# If there are not enough tickers, exit
if len(data.columns) < NUM_ASSETS:
    print("Not enough tickers with complete data to form a portfolio.")
    sys.exit()

# Step 3: Calculate daily returns
returns = data.pct_change().dropna()

# Step 4: Label economic cycles
print("Labeling economic cycles...")
return_dates = returns.index
labels = label_economic_cycles(return_dates)
labels = pd.Series(labels, index=return_dates)  # Convert to Series with matching index

# Step 5: Split data into Training (70%), Validation (15%), Testing (15%)
split_date_1 = int(len(returns) * 0.70)
split_date_2 = int(len(returns) * 0.85)

train_returns = returns.iloc[:split_date_1]  # No 'Economic_Cycle' column
train_labels = labels.iloc[:split_date_1]  # Use iloc to ensure alignment

validation_returns = returns.iloc[split_date_1:split_date_2]
validation_labels = labels.iloc[split_date_1:split_date_2]

test_returns = returns.iloc[split_date_2:]
test_labels = labels.iloc[split_date_2:]

print(f"Training set: {train_returns.shape[0]} days")
print(f"Validation set: {validation_returns.shape[0]} days")
print(f"Testing set: {test_returns.shape[0]} days")

# Calculate compounded multi-year metrics for each set
def calculate_metrics_multi_year(returns_set, labels_set):
    metrics = {}
    # Overall
    cumulative_return = (1 + returns_set.mean(axis=1)).prod() - 1
    metrics['cumulative_return'] = cumulative_return
    
    # Volatility
    volatility = returns_set.mean(axis=1).std() * np.sqrt(252)
    metrics['volatility'] = volatility
    
    # Sharpe Ratio
    sharpe_ratio = (returns_set.mean(axis=1).mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / (returns_set.mean(axis=1).std() * np.sqrt(252))
    metrics['sharpe_ratio'] = sharpe_ratio
    
    # Sortino Ratio
    sortino = {}
    for cycle in ['Growth', 'Recession']:
        cycle_mask = labels_set == cycle
        cycle_returns = returns_set.loc[cycle_mask].mean(axis=1).dropna()
        sortino_cycle = sortino_ratio(cycle_returns)
        sortino[cycle] = sortino_cycle
    metrics['sortino'] = sortino
    
    # CVaR
    cvar = {}
    for cycle in ['Growth', 'Recession']:
        cycle_mask = labels_set == cycle
        cycle_returns = returns_set.loc[cycle_mask].mean(axis=1).dropna()
        cvar_cycle = conditional_value_at_risk(cycle_returns, confidence_level=0.95)
        cvar[cycle] = cvar_cycle
    metrics['cvar'] = cvar
    
    # Maximum Drawdown
    mdd = {}
    for cycle in ['Growth', 'Recession']:
        cycle_mask = labels_set == cycle
        cycle_returns = returns_set.loc[cycle_mask].mean(axis=1).dropna()
        portfolio_cum_returns = (1 + cycle_returns).cumprod()
        mdd_cycle = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns)
        mdd[cycle] = mdd_cycle
    metrics['max_drawdown'] = mdd
    
    return metrics

train_metrics = calculate_metrics_multi_year(train_returns, train_labels)
validation_metrics = calculate_metrics_multi_year(validation_returns, validation_labels)
test_metrics = calculate_metrics_multi_year(test_returns, test_labels)

# Define Genetic Algorithm parameters
POPULATION_SIZE = 500  # Adjusted for memory constraints
P_CROSSOVER = 0.8      # Probability for crossover
P_MUTATION = 0.2       # Probability for mutating an individual
MAX_GENERATIONS = 100  # Increased number of generations for better convergence
HALL_OF_FAME_SIZE = 1  # Number of best individuals to keep

# Define the weights for each optimization objective
WEIGHT_SHARPE = 0.20
WEIGHT_MAX_DRAWDOWN = 0.15
WEIGHT_CUMULATIVE_RETURN = 0.25
WEIGHT_VOLATILITY = 0.10
WEIGHT_SORTINO_GROWTH = 0.10
WEIGHT_SORTINO_RECESSION = 0.05
WEIGHT_CVAR_GROWTH = 0.10
WEIGHT_CVAR_RECESSION = 0.05

# Define the evaluation (fitness) function
def evaluate_portfolio(individual):
    selected_tickers = individual[:NUM_ASSETS]
    weights = individual[NUM_ASSETS:]
    
    # Ensure all selected tickers are unique
    if len(set(selected_tickers)) != NUM_ASSETS:
        return -np.inf,  # Invalid individual

    # Ensure weights sum to 1 and are within constraints
    weights = np.array(weights)
    if not np.isclose(weights.sum(), 1.0):
        return -np.inf,
    if not all(LOWER_WEIGHT <= w <= UPPER_WEIGHT for w in weights):
        return -np.inf,
    
    # Check if all tickers are present in the returns DataFrame
    if not all(ticker in returns.columns for ticker in selected_tickers):
        return -np.inf,  # Invalid individual

    # Calculate portfolio metrics using Training Set
    try:
        portfolio_returns_train = train_returns[selected_tickers].dot(weights)
        portfolio_cum_return_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train).prod() - 1
        portfolio_volatility_train = portfolio_returns_train.std() * np.sqrt(252)
        sharpe_ratio_train = (portfolio_returns_train.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_train if portfolio_volatility_train != 0 else 0
        sortino_growth_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth'])
        sortino_recession_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession'])
        cvar_growth_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
        cvar_recession_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
        portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
        portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
        portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train)
        portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train)
    except:
        return -np.inf,

    # Combine the metrics into a single fitness score
    fitness = (
        WEIGHT_SHARPE * sharpe_ratio_train +
        WEIGHT_MAX_DRAWDOWN * (portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train + portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train) / 2 +
        WEIGHT_CUMULATIVE_RETURN * portfolio_cum_return_train +
        WEIGHT_VOLATILITY * (-portfolio_volatility_train) +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_GROWTH * sortino_growth_train +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_RECESSION * sortino_recession_train +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_GROWTH * cvar_growth_train +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_RECESSION * cvar_recession_train
    )
    
    return fitness,

# Create the DEAP framework
creator.create("FitnessMax", base.Fitness, weights=(1.0,))  # Single objective, maximize
creator.create("Individual", list, fitness=creator.FitnessMax)

toolbox = base.Toolbox()

# Attribute generators
# Selection part: choosing 8 unique tickers
def select_tickers():
    return random.sample(successful_tickers, NUM_ASSETS)

# Allocation part: generating 8 weights between 10% and 20% that sum to 1
def allocate_weights():
    return generate_weights(NUM_ASSETS, LOWER_WEIGHT, UPPER_WEIGHT).tolist()

# Define how each individual is created
def create_individual():
    tickers_selected = select_tickers()
    weights_allocated = allocate_weights()
    return creator.Individual(tickers_selected + weights_allocated)

toolbox.register("individual", create_individual)
toolbox.register("population", tools.initRepeat, list, toolbox.individual)

# Custom Crossover: Ensures tickers remain unique and weights are within constraints
def cxTickersWeights(ind1, ind2):
    # Separate tickers and weights
    tickers1, weights1 = ind1[:NUM_ASSETS], ind1[NUM_ASSETS:]
    tickers2, weights2 = ind2[:NUM_ASSETS], ind2[NUM_ASSETS:]
    
    # Crossover tickers using one-point crossover
    cx_point = random.randint(1, NUM_ASSETS -1)
    new_tickers1 = tickers1[:cx_point] + [ticker for ticker in tickers2[cx_point:] if ticker not in tickers1[:cx_point]]
    new_tickers2 = tickers2[:cx_point] + [ticker for ticker in tickers1[cx_point:] if ticker not in tickers2[:cx_point]]
    
    # Fill the remaining tickers to maintain NUM_ASSETS
    available_tickers1 = list(set(successful_tickers) - set(new_tickers1))
    available_tickers2 = list(set(successful_tickers) - set(new_tickers2))
    
    while len(new_tickers1) < NUM_ASSETS:
        new_tickers1.append(random.choice(available_tickers1))
        available_tickers1.remove(new_tickers1[-1])
    
    while len(new_tickers2) < NUM_ASSETS:
        new_tickers2.append(random.choice(available_tickers2))
        available_tickers2.remove(new_tickers2[-1])
    
    # Assign the new tickers
    ind1[:NUM_ASSETS] = new_tickers1
    ind2[:NUM_ASSETS] = new_tickers2
    
    # Crossover weights using arithmetic crossover
    new_weights1 = (np.array(weights1) + np.array(weights2)) / 2
    new_weights2 = (np.array(weights1) + np.array(weights2)) / 2
    
    # Enforce weight constraints
    try:
        new_weights1 = generate_weights(NUM_ASSETS, LOWER_WEIGHT, UPPER_WEIGHT)
    except ValueError:
        new_weights1 = allocate_weights()
    
    try:
        new_weights2 = generate_weights(NUM_ASSETS, LOWER_WEIGHT, UPPER_WEIGHT)
    except ValueError:
        new_weights2 = allocate_weights()
    
    ind1[NUM_ASSETS:] = new_weights1.tolist()
    ind2[NUM_ASSETS:] = new_weights2.tolist()
    
    return ind1, ind2

# Register the custom crossover
toolbox.register("mate", cxTickersWeights)

# Genetic operators
toolbox.register("evaluate", evaluate_portfolio)

# Custom mutation: either swap a ticker or adjust weights
def mutate_portfolio(individual, indpb=0.2):
    mutation_type = random.choice(['ticker', 'weight'])
    
    if mutation_type == 'ticker':
        # Mutation: swap one ticker
        idx = random.randint(0, NUM_ASSETS - 1)
        current_ticker = individual[idx]
        available_tickers = list(set(successful_tickers) - set(individual[:NUM_ASSETS]))
        if available_tickers:
            new_ticker = random.choice(available_tickers)
            individual[idx] = new_ticker
    else:
        # Mutation: adjust weights
        try:
            new_weights = generate_weights(NUM_ASSETS, LOWER_WEIGHT, UPPER_WEIGHT)
            individual[NUM_ASSETS:] = new_weights.tolist()
        except ValueError:
            # If unable to generate, leave weights unchanged
            pass
    
    return (individual,)

toolbox.register("mutate", mutate_portfolio, indpb=0.2)
toolbox.register("select", tools.selTournament, tournsize=3)

# Determine the number of processes to use
num_processes = max(1, multiprocessing.cpu_count() - 1)  # Leave one core free

# Set up multiprocessing pool
pool = multiprocessing.Pool(processes=num_processes)
toolbox.register("map", pool.map)

# Initialize population
print("Initializing population...")
population = toolbox.population(n=POPULATION_SIZE)

# Initialize statistics to keep track
stats = tools.Statistics(lambda ind: ind.fitness.values)
stats.register("avg", np.mean)
stats.register("std", np.std)
stats.register("min", np.min)
stats.register("max", np.max)

# Initialize Hall of Fame to store the best individual
hof = tools.HallOfFame(HALL_OF_FAME_SIZE)

# Define a callback to display better portfolios instantly
class PrintBestPortfolio:
    def __init__(self, hof):
        self.hof = hof
        self.best_fitness = -np.inf
    
    def __call__(self, gen, population, fitnesses):
        current_best = max(fitnesses)
        if current_best > self.best_fitness:
            self.best_fitness = current_best
            best_ind = tools.selBest(population, 1)[0]
            selected = best_ind[:NUM_ASSETS]
            weights = np.array(best_ind[NUM_ASSETS:])
            # Training Metrics
            portfolio_return_train = train_returns[selected].dot(weights)
            cumulative_return_train = (1 + portfolio_return_train).prod() - 1
            portfolio_volatility_train = portfolio_return_train.std() * np.sqrt(252)
            sharpe_ratio_train = (portfolio_return_train.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_train if portfolio_volatility_train != 0 else 0
            sortino_growth_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Growth'])
            sortino_recession_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Recession'])
            cvar_growth_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
            cvar_recession_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
            portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train = (1 + portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
            portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train = (1 + portfolio_return_train[train_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
            portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train)
            portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train)
            
            # Validation Metrics
            try:
                portfolio_returns_val = validation_returns[selected].dot(weights)
                cumulative_return_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val).prod() - 1
                portfolio_volatility_val = portfolio_returns_val.std() * np.sqrt(252)
                sharpe_ratio_val = (portfolio_returns_val.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_val if portfolio_volatility_val != 0 else 0
                sortino_growth_val = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth'])
                sortino_recession_val = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession'])
                cvar_growth_val = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
                cvar_recession_val = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
                portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
                portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
                portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val)
                portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val)
            except:
                cumulative_return_val = 0
                portfolio_volatility_val = 0
                sharpe_ratio_val = 0
                sortino_growth_val = 0
                sortino_recession_val = 0
                cvar_growth_val = 0
                cvar_recession_val = 0
                portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val = 0
                portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val = 0
                portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val = 0
                portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val = 0
            
            # Display the new best portfolio
            portfolio_df = pd.DataFrame({
                'Ticker': selected,
                'Allocation': [f"{w*100:.2f}%" for w in weights]
            })
            
            print(f"\nGeneration {gen}: New Best Portfolio Found!")
            display(portfolio_df)
            print(f"--- Training Set Performance ---")
            print(f"Cumulative Return: {cumulative_return_train*100:.2f}%")
            print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_train*100:.2f}%")
            print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_train:.2f}")
            print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_growth_train:.2f}")
            print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_recession_train:.2f}")
            print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_growth_train:.2%}")
            print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_train:.2%}")
            print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train:.2%}")
            print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train:.2%}")
            
            print(f"--- Validation Set Performance ---")
            print(f"Cumulative Return: {cumulative_return_val*100:.2f}%")
            print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_val*100:.2f}%")
            print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_val:.2f}")
            print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_growth_val:.2f}")
            print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_recession_val:.2f}")
            print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_growth_val:.2%}")
            print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_val:.2%}")
            print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val:.2%}")
            print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val:.2%}")
    
            print(f"--- Testing Set Performance ---")
            try:
                portfolio_returns_test = test_returns[selected].dot(weights)
                portfolio_cum_return_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test).prod() - 1
                portfolio_volatility_test = portfolio_returns_test.std() * np.sqrt(252)
                sharpe_ratio_test = (portfolio_returns_test.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_test if portfolio_volatility_test != 0 else 0
                sortino_test_growth = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth'])
                sortino_test_recession = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession'])
                cvar_test_growth = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
                cvar_recession_test = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
                portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
                portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
                portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_test = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test)
                portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_test = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test)
                
                print(f"Cumulative Return: {portfolio_cum_return_test*100:.2f}%")
                print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_test*100:.2f}%")
                print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_test:.2f}")
                print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_test_growth:.2f}")
                print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_test_recession:.2f}")
                print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_test_growth:.2%}")
                print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_test:.2%}")
                print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_test:.2%}")
                print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_test:.2%}")
            except:
                print("Testing set performance metrics could not be calculated.")
            
            # Assess overfitting
            print("\n--- Overfitting Assessment ---")
            # Define thresholds for acceptable performance differences
            threshold_return = 0.05  # 5% difference in return
            threshold_volatility = 0.05  # 5% difference in volatility

            train_val_return_diff = cumulative_return_train - cumulative_return_val
            train_test_return_diff = portfolio_cum_return_train - portfolio_cum_return_test if 'portfolio_cum_return_test' in locals() else 0
            train_val_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_val
            train_test_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_test if 'portfolio_volatility_test' in locals() else 0

            overfitting_return = train_test_return_diff > threshold_return
            overfitting_vol = train_test_vol_diff < -threshold_volatility

            if overfitting_return and overfitting_vol:
                print("Warning: Overfitting detected! The portfolio performs significantly better on training and validation data compared to testing data.")
            else:
                print("No significant overfitting detected. The portfolio generalizes well to unseen data.")
            
            # Plot cumulative returns for visual assessment
            plt.figure(figsize=(14, 7))
            
            # Training Cumulative Returns
            plt.subplot(1, 2, 1)
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train, label='Training Growth')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train, label='Training Recession')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val, label='Validation Growth')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val, label='Validation Recession')
            if 'portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test, label='Testing Growth')
            if 'portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test, label='Testing Recession')
            plt.title('Cumulative Returns')
            plt.xlabel('Date')
            plt.ylabel('Cumulative Return')
            plt.legend()
            
            # Drawdowns
            plt.subplot(1, 2, 2)
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.cummax()) - 1, label='Training Growth Drawdown')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.cummax()) - 1, label='Training Recession Drawdown')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.cummax()) - 1, label='Validation Growth Drawdown')
            if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.cummax()) - 1, label='Validation Recession Drawdown')
            if 'portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.cummax()) - 1, label='Testing Growth Drawdown')
            if 'portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.empty:
                plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.cummax()) - 1, label='Testing Recession Drawdown')
            plt.title('Drawdowns')
            plt.xlabel('Date')
            plt.ylabel('Drawdown')
            plt.legend()
            
            plt.tight_layout()
            plt.show()

# Instantiate the callback
callback = PrintBestPortfolio(hof)

# Begin the evolution
print("\nStarting Genetic Algorithm Evolution...\n")
for gen in tqdm(range(1, MAX_GENERATIONS + 1), desc="Generations"):
    # Select the next generation individuals
    offspring = toolbox.select(population, len(population))
    offspring = list(map(toolbox.clone, offspring))
    
    # Apply crossover on the offspring
    for child1, child2 in zip(offspring[::2], offspring[1::2]):
        if random.random() < P_CROSSOVER:
            toolbox.mate(child1, child2)
            del child1.fitness.values
            del child2.fitness.values
    
    # Apply mutation on the offspring
    for mutant in offspring:
        if random.random() < P_MUTATION:
            toolbox.mutate(mutant)
            del mutant.fitness.values
    
    # Evaluate the individuals with an invalid fitness
    invalid_ind = [ind for ind in offspring if not ind.fitness.valid]
    fitnesses = toolbox.map(toolbox.evaluate, invalid_ind)
    for ind, fit in zip(invalid_ind, fitnesses):
        ind.fitness.values = fit
    
    # Replace population with offspring
    population[:] = offspring
    
    # Update the hall of fame with the generated individuals
    hof.update(population)
    
    # Gather all the fitnesses in one list
    fits = [ind.fitness.values[0] for ind in population]
    
    # Callback to print instant best portfolio
    callback(gen, population, fits)
    
print("\nEvolution Complete!\n")

# Retrieve and display the best portfolio found
if len(hof) > 0:
    best_ind = hof[0]
    selected = best_ind[:NUM_ASSETS]
    weights = np.array(best_ind[NUM_ASSETS:])
    
    # Training Metrics
    portfolio_returns_train = train_returns[selected].dot(weights)
    portfolio_cum_return_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train).prod() - 1
    portfolio_volatility_train = portfolio_returns_train.std() * np.sqrt(252)
    sharpe_ratio_train = (portfolio_returns_train.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_train if portfolio_volatility_train != 0 else 0
    sortino_growth_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth'])
    sortino_recession_train = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession'])
    cvar_growth_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
    cvar_recession_train = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
    portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
    portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train = (1 + portfolio_returns_train[train_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
    portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train)
    portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train)
    
    # Validation Metrics
    try:
        portfolio_returns_val = validation_returns[selected].dot(weights)
        portfolio_cum_return_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val).prod() - 1
        portfolio_volatility_val = portfolio_returns_val.std() * np.sqrt(252)
        sharpe_ratio_val = (portfolio_returns_val.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_val if portfolio_volatility_val != 0 else 0
        sortino_growth_val = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth'])
        sortino_recession_val = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession'])
        cvar_growth_val = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
        cvar_recession_val = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
        portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
        portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val = (1 + portfolio_returns_val[validation_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
        portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val)
        portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val)
    except:
        portfolio_returns_val = 0
        portfolio_cum_return_val = 0
        portfolio_volatility_val = 0
        sharpe_ratio_val = 0
        sortino_growth_val = 0
        sortino_recession_val = 0
        cvar_growth_val = 0
        cvar_recession_val = 0
        portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val = 0
        portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val = 0
        portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val = 0
        portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val = 0
    
    # Testing Metrics
    try:
        portfolio_returns_test = test_returns[selected].dot(weights)
        portfolio_cum_return_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test).prod() - 1
        portfolio_volatility_test = portfolio_returns_test.std() * np.sqrt(252)
        sharpe_ratio_test = (portfolio_returns_test.mean() * 252 - RISK_FREE_RATE) / portfolio_volatility_test if portfolio_volatility_test != 0 else 0
        sortino_test_growth = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth'])
        sortino_test_recession = sortino_ratio(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession'])
        cvar_test_growth = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth'], 0.95)
        cvar_recession_test = conditional_value_at_risk(portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession'], 0.95)
        portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Growth']).cumprod()
        portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test = (1 + portfolio_returns_test[test_labels == 'Recession']).cumprod()
        portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_test = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test)
        portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_test = max_drawdown(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test)
    except:
        portfolio_returns_test = 0
        portfolio_cum_return_test = 0
        portfolio_volatility_test = 0
        sharpe_ratio_test = 0
        sortino_test_growth = 0
        sortino_test_recession = 0
        cvar_test_growth = 0
        cvar_recession_test = 0
        portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test = 0
        portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test = 0
        portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_test = 0
        portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_test = 0
    
    # Composite Fitness Score on Training and Validation Sets
    fitness_train = (
        WEIGHT_SHARPE * sharpe_ratio_train +
        WEIGHT_MAX_DRAWDOWN * (portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train + portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train) / 2 +
        WEIGHT_CUMULATIVE_RETURN * portfolio_cum_return_train +
        WEIGHT_VOLATILITY * (-portfolio_volatility_train) +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_GROWTH * sortino_growth_train +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_RECESSION * sortino_recession_train +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_GROWTH * cvar_growth_train +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_RECESSION * cvar_recession_train
    )
    
    fitness_val = (
        WEIGHT_SHARPE * sharpe_ratio_val +
        WEIGHT_MAX_DRAWDOWN * (portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val + portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val) / 2 +
        WEIGHT_CUMULATIVE_RETURN * portfolio_cum_return_val +
        WEIGHT_VOLATILITY * (-portfolio_volatility_val) +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_GROWTH * sortino_growth_val +
        WEIGHT_SORTINO_RECESSION * sortino_recession_val +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_GROWTH * cvar_growth_val +
        WEIGHT_CVAR_RECESSION * cvar_recession_val
    )
    
    fitness = (fitness_train + fitness_val) / 2
    
    portfolio_df = pd.DataFrame({
        'Ticker': selected,
        'Allocation': [f"{w*100:.2f}%" for w in weights]
    })
    
    print("Optimal Portfolio Found:")
    display(portfolio_df)
    print(f"--- Training Set Performance ---")
    print(f"Cumulative Return: {portfolio_cum_return_train*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_train*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_train:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_growth_train:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_recession_train:.2f}")
    print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_growth_train:.2%}")
    print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_train:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_train:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_train:.2%}")
    
    print(f"--- Validation Set Performance ---")
    print(f"Cumulative Return: {cumulative_return_val*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_val*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_val:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_growth_val:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_recession_val:.2f}")
    print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_growth_val:.2%}")
    print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_val:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_val:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_val:.2%}")
    
    print(f"--- Testing Set Performance ---")
    print(f"Cumulative Return: {portfolio_cum_return_test*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Annualized Volatility: {portfolio_volatility_test*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe_ratio_test:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Growth): {sortino_test_growth:.2f}")
    print(f"Sortino Ratio (Recession): {sortino_test_recession:.2f}")
    print(f"CVaR (Growth): {cvar_test_growth:.2%}")
    print(f"CVaR (Recession): {cvar_recession_test:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Growth): {portfolio_max_drawdown_growth_test:.2%}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown (Recession): {portfolio_max_drawdown_recession_test:.2%}")
    
    # Assess overfitting
    print("\n--- Overfitting Assessment ---")
    # Define thresholds for acceptable performance differences
    threshold_return = 0.05  # 5% difference in return
    threshold_volatility = 0.05  # 5% difference in volatility

    train_val_return_diff = cumulative_return_train - cumulative_return_val
    train_test_return_diff = portfolio_cum_return_train - portfolio_cum_return_test if 'portfolio_cum_return_test' in locals() else 0
    train_val_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_val
    train_test_vol_diff = portfolio_volatility_train - portfolio_volatility_test if 'portfolio_volatility_test' in locals() else 0

    overfitting_return = train_test_return_diff > threshold_return
    overfitting_vol = train_test_vol_diff < -threshold_volatility

    if overfitting_return and overfitting_vol:
        print("Warning: Overfitting detected! The portfolio performs significantly better on training and validation data compared to testing data.")
    else:
        print("No significant overfitting detected. The portfolio generalizes well to unseen data.")
    
    # Plot cumulative returns for visual assessment
    plt.figure(figsize=(14, 7))
    
    # Training Cumulative Returns
    plt.subplot(1, 2, 1)
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train, label='Training Growth')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train, label='Training Recession')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val, label='Validation Growth')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val, label='Validation Recession')
    if 'portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.index, portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test, label='Testing Growth')
    if 'portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.index, portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test, label='Testing Recession')
    plt.title('Cumulative Returns')
    plt.xlabel('Date')
    plt.ylabel('Cumulative Return')
    plt.legend()
    
    # Drawdowns
    plt.subplot(1, 2, 2)
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_train.cummax()) - 1, label='Training Growth Drawdown')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_train.cummax()) - 1, label='Training Recession Drawdown')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_val.cummax()) - 1, label='Validation Growth Drawdown')
    if not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_val.cummax()) - 1, label='Validation Recession Drawdown')
    if 'portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test / portfolio_cum_returns_growth_test.cummax()) - 1, label='Testing Growth Drawdown')
    if 'portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test' in locals() and not portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.empty:
        plt.plot(portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.index, (portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test / portfolio_cum_returns_recession_test.cummax()) - 1, label='Testing Recession Drawdown')
    plt.title('Drawdowns')
    plt.xlabel('Date')
    plt.ylabel('Drawdown')
    plt.legend()
    
    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.show()

# Close the multiprocessing pool
pool.close()
pool.join()