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This is the idea that
took over the world. First there was one democracy — then 10, then 20. There were some setbacks, but people really seemed
to want democracy. And eventually, most
of them got one. But 15 years ago,
democracy stopped spreading, and it might not
pick back up again. Even some places that
seemed safely democratic turned out not to be. And people are even
getting worried about established
democracies like the U.S. So is there something
wrong with democracy? I’m Max Fisher. I’m Amanda Taub. We’re journalists at
The New York Times. And this is the Interpreter. We can measure democracy
kind of like a health score. Over here, there
are full democracies like the United States. And over there are
dictatorships like North Korea. So the further
left a country is, the less democratic it is and the
further right a country, the more democratic it is. Now let’s see what
happens when we add how rich the countries are. The higher on the graph,
the richer the country and the lower on the graph,
the poorer the country. Generally, countries
have moved up and right. As they got richer, they
became more democratic. You’ve got your Englands,
your Latvias, your Indonesias. You see a pattern? Countries getting richer. Countries getting
more democratic. But look at countries like
China and Saudi Arabia. They got richer, but
never got more democratic. Look at Russia and Venezuela. They got democratic,
but then backslid, which wasn’t supposed to happen. So what’s going on? China looked exactly
like places we thought would become democracies next. They built up the rule
of law, civil society and some institutions. Normally, those are the building
blocks that eventually add up to democracy. But they were really designed
to make citizens just happy enough to protect the
authoritarian system from the will of the people. And whenever the
government feels like it could lose control, it uses the other side of its
strategy: violent oppression and coercion. We’re seeing this
in more places where dictators are learning how to
stop democracy from forming. And at the same time,
some elected leaders are developing
their own playbook for pulling democratic
systems down from within. A handful of seemingly
established democracies are sliding back
towards dictatorship. These countries didn’t
have coups or invasions. In each case, voters
elected strongman leaders who dismantled their
democracies from within. Venezuela had been
democratic for 40 years, then Hugo Chavez
rose on a message that only he spoke
for the people. People cheered as he
accrued power for himself, jailed his opponents
and tore down the democratic institutions
that constrained him. And when the dust settled,
Chavez was unchecked. Society descended
into chaos that is getting worse every day. Other elected leaders are
using similar tactics, but always bit by bit — in ways that aren’t
obvious and might even be popular at the time. One of the most
powerful forces that can turn people against
democracy is polarization. When people feel scared enough
of their political opponents, it feels more important to
protect their side than it does to protect democracy. Leaders can exploit that fear. So if you’re Russian
and you support Putin, you might blame
society’s problems on gay people or
nefarious Western plots. If you’re Turkish
and support Erdogan, you fear the secular elites
will impose military rule. And we’re seeing that kind
of polarization and fear start to take hold in
established democracies. "You are a racist,
no good American." "I was just called a racist." Could it happen in
the United States? It still feels impossible. And it might be. So far, the system is resilient. But the warning signs are here. Polarization. Populism. Distrust of institutions. A desire for strongman
leaders to smash the system. These things don’t necessarily
mean that democracy is doomed. But they show that in
times of social stress, even a free people can
dismantle their own democracy without realizing
they’re doing it. Democracy is still a pretty
new system of government. That century-long trend might
not have been a trend at all. Just a few one-time moments that
we mistook for inevitability. We want to believe it
will last forever, but we can’t be sure.