Given the scenario below, give me three courses of action the China-Russia alliance can use to thwart the US governments plans:

*****In each seminar, participants will take on the roles of either the Russia-China alliance (RED team) or the United States (Blue team) to simulate strategic competition. This simulation incorporates real-world variables and conditions as outlined in the "road to war" concept. Each team will aim to enhance its influence over the Guinean Communist Corps (GCC) and the Guinean Communist Movement (GCM) to achieve their strategic objectives, which participants are required to develop. The focus is not on winning but on determining which side can sustain or lose strategic influence. ***** 

 

 

The situation in West Africa, especially the Mano River Union (MRU) region, has reached a crisis point.  A complex web of geopolitical forces and regional dynamics has converged, putting this African region on the precipice of conflict. Tensions are high, and a silent power struggle among global powers engulfs the MRU region.  The future of the region is hanging in the balance.  How did we get here? 

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In the year 2024, the world witnessed the resurgence of the Russian Communist Revolution, rekindling the flames of communist ideology.  Russia, under its new communist leadership, had ambitious plans for global expansion; and Africa, especially with the fragile government in Mali, seemed like fertile ground for the proliferation of communist ideals.  At about the same time, the People's Republic of China (PRC) recognizing the opportunities that Africa offered, was determined to extend its influence in the region and establish its global legitimacy.  China utilized economic activities, political influence, and corrupt practices to further its objectives, setting the stage for a global power struggle in West Africa, with all competing nations seeking to control African resources and wield effective political influence. 

As Russia’s efforts took root, Mali fell under the spell of the newly-formed Malian Communist Africa Committee (CAC) in early 2025.  With increasing influence and control, the CAC came to power later that year, establishing a communist form of government within Mali and propagating the communist ideology into the broader MRU region, with a particular focus on Guinea. 

Concurrently, China was steadily increasing its presence in Africa, targeting the mineral wealth of the MRU region and establishing a strong foothold in countries like Guinea and Liberia.  Ports, airfields, and supporting infrastructure projects were initiated as part of China's grand strategy; and ultimately (in 2029), the PRC secured a pivotal contract to improve and manage the port in Sierra Leone, solidifying its influence in the region. 

The situation continued to escalate, and by 2028 the region became precarious.  Russia's export of communism from Mali had given rise to the Guinean Communist Movement (GCM) and the Guinean Communist Corps (GCC).  The GCM, backed by Mali, employed a political approach, operating as a shadow government in Guinea, particularly in the northeastern region known as "The Commune."  This well-organized and capable political movement was able to challenge the existing government for legitimacy and control.  The Guinean Communist Corps (GCC), on the other hand, employed a more militant approach, developing the capability of launching attacks inside Guinea and beyond its borders to further communist goals. 

China, with its well-established infrastructure and significant investments, had become a competing partner-of-choice for several countries in the region. The PRC’s focus on establishing infrastructure, engaging in predatory lending practices, and exploiting the mineral wealth of the MRU region further complicated the already intricate power struggle. 

In 2030, in an attempt to gain credibility and strengthen their claim to legitimacy, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia united to form the Mano River Union (MRU).  The MRU is a loose confederation primarily focused on economic cooperation, but with some elements of military collaboration. The escalating crisis in the region has prompted the MRU to request United Nations (UN) support to help maintain security and stability for its population.  The UN, in turn, called upon the United States (US) to prepare a contingency plan to enforce the rule-of-law and enhance stability in the region.  The US National Command Authority (NCA) designated the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) as the Executive Agent for the development and implementation of this contingency plan.  USSOCOM has directed Special Operations Command-Africa (SOCAF) to operationalize this plan. 

In this competitive political and economic arena, an environmental catastrophe has struck Guinea, further complicating the situation.  A severe drought (that lasted from 2027 to 2029) has caused a food shortage in affected areas, and an outbreak of H5N1 Avian Influenza has affected widely-dispersed sections of the country.  The food shortages and influenza have created a massive amount of internally-displaced persons seeking food and medical care.  In addition to these internally-displaced persons, a growing number of refugees are fleeing from the “Commune” and adjacent communist areas.  The internally displaced persons and refugees are overwhelming the Government of Guinea’s capability and capacity to care for its population. 

Recognizing the chaotic situation, and seeking to exploit the opportunity, the Malian CAC gave direction for the GCM to mobilize the population against the current Guinean government, fomenting insurrection and creating instability throughout the region.  In parallel, the GCC targeted Guinean infrastructure to further undermine the government's credibility and legitimacy, exacerbating the turmoil. 

Within the past 90 days, the crisis escalated with three significant security incidents. The GCC attacked and assumed control of the local police station in Dabola.  From this location, the communist elements are able to restrict humanitarian aid distribution.; specifically, the GCM is able to harass and intimidate the population in the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps, exerting effective influence over the refugee population.  Additionally, the GCC sabotaged the cell phone network and radio towers near the IDP camps, limiting the MRU's ability to reach the internally-displaced and refugee population and adversely affecting their ability to respond to the crisis. 

The address this situation, the US mission’s objectives in the MRU were multifaceted.  They aimed to support the region's constitutional democracy, strengthen human rights and governance, prevent economic exploitation, and ultimately stabilize the situation.  The SOCAF Commander's intent is to provide Foreign Internal Defense (FID), Military Information Support Operations (MISO), Civil Affairs (CA), Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (FHA), and Security Force Assistance (SFA) to enable MRU security forces to maintain security and stability within their territorial borders.  Simultaneously, the mission aimed to establish a permissive environment for future United Nations peacekeeping operations. 

However, the operation is not without its risk. US forces are vulnerable to attack by the GCC and other hostile actors.  The activities of US personnel could potentially undermine the cohesion and effectiveness of the MRU, jeopardizing the success of the mission and impacting US global credibility. Furthermore, the possibility of direct intervention by Russia or the PRC could significantly escalate the crisis, creating strategic risk. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________In this strategic competitive environment, the US is now involved in a complex and challenging mission in the MRU.  This struggle among global powers had placed the region on the brink, and the future of the African territory remained uncertain…