write an abstract from this:An Evaluation on the Three Major Risks for Germany and Advice to the German Parliament and Foreign Ministry
Introduction
In his book Why the Germans do it Better[ KAMPFNER, JOHN. Why the Germans do it better: Notes from a grown -up country. S.l.: ATLANTIC BOOKS, 2021. ] John Kampfner describes the notorious history of Germany as “ from the time to Bismark to that of Hitler Germany is synonymous with militarism, war, the Holocaust, and division. No country has caused so much harm in so little time.” Being aware of this history, it is difficult for one to draw a connection between the past authoritarian Germany and the present day democratic Germany.

The present day Germany upholds democratic principles through a multiparty political system, ensuring the representation and participation of its citizens. The country maintains strong institutions, including an independent judiciary and a free press, which foster a vibrant civil society and protect individual rights and freedoms. Moreover, Germany’s democratic governance has led to political stability, enabling long-term planning and fostering an environment conducive to economic growth. The nation’s well-managed economy, with a strong industrial base and a focus on innovation and technological advancement, has propelled it to become the largest economy in Europe. It boasts high standards of living, low unemployment rates, and a robust welfare state, ensuring a high level of social security and well-being for its citizens. Germany’s commitment to both democracy and prosperity has earned it a prominent place among the most successful nations in the world.Germany is widely recognized for its low risks in both environmental and political structures. 

In terms of the environment, Germany has made significant strides in sustainable development and reducing pollution[ Germany’s Sustainable Development Strategy | Federal Government. (2022, August 1). Website of the Federal Government | Bundesregierung. ]. The country is committed to renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and biomass, which has led to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a cleaner environment. Additionally, Germany has stringent environmental laws[ Environmental law and practice in Ger
] and regulations in place to ensure the protection of natural resources and wildlife. 

In terms of political stability, Germany is a democratic country with a robust and stable political system. The country has consistently ranked high in terms of political freedom, transparency, and rule of law. The multi-party system and regular elections guarantee a fair and representative government. Furthermore, Germany’s commitment to international cooperation and strong diplomatic relations with neighboring countries also contribute to its low political risks.

Nevertheless, Germany is confronted with multiple possible risks that could compromise both its social stability and economic growth leading up to the upcoming election in 2025. For instance, the rise of right-wing populism and anti-immigrant sentiment poses a threat to social cohesion and may lead to political divisions. Additionally, Germany’s heavy dependence[ Haghani, Sascha, and Matthias Holzamer. “Germany’s Export Industry.” Roland Berger, Roland Berger GmbH, 11 Oct. 2022, ] on exports could make it vulnerable to external factors such as global trade tensions or a decline in demand for its products. Moreover, the ongoing challenges of transitioning to renewable energy sources and reducing carbon emissions may pose economic and environmental risks and the country’s rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce[ Kantchev, G. (n.d.). Aging Germany Is Running Out of Workers, Putting Europe’s Largest Economy at Risk. WSJ. 
] could strain its social welfare system and hinder economic productivity. 

This essay evaluates the three biggest factors, geopolitical, economic and social factor, that can destabilize Germany and proposes the according suggestions for the German Parliament and Foreign Ministry. Among these three variables, the geopolitical factor emerges as the predominant influencer, followed by the economic and social factors, respectively.
Geopolitical Hazard: The Ukraine and Russia War poses a serious challenge for Germany on the global political stage
Germany has found itself in a delicate situation in the Ukraine-Russia war. As a key player in European politics and economy, Germany has endeavored to maintain a balance between supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and managing its economic ties with Russia. While being critical of Russia’s actions and calling for a peaceful resolution, Germany has also sought diplomatic channels to minimize the escalation of the conflict. Germany has played a crucial role in mediating talks and facilitating ceasefires, often collaborating closely with France and other European countries. However, this balancing act has presented challenges as Germany has faced domestic pressure to adopt a more assertive stance against Russia while also acting as a mediator for stability in the region. Ultimately, Germany’s response to the Ukraine-Russia war reflects the complexities of navigating geopolitical dilemmas while safeguarding its economic and diplomatic interests.
Economic Risk: The conflict in Ukraine results in a sharp rise in inflation and hinders the progress of economic growth in Germany.
The projected GDP growth for Germany is expected to remain stagnant, with a 0.1% decline in the first quarter of the year[ German economy stagnates in second quarter, outlook remains clouded. (2023, July 28). Reuters. ]. The labor market is predicted to remain tight, with a modest uptick in the unemployment rate in the coming years. Inflation is expected to remain below 2% until at least 2025[ Ward-Glenton, H. (2023, July 7). Germany’s economy is stagnating. And these 5 charts show how. CNBC. 
]. These projections indicate a challenging economic environment for Germany in the foreseeable future. Additionally, utility costs are expected to increase, particularly in the electricity and industrial power sectors. This combination of factors, including the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, trade disruptions, inflationary pressures, and economic sanctions, is likely to hinder Germany’s economic growth and potentially lead to decreased economic activity and revenues for German companies. There may also be a negative impact on investor confidence and consumer spending, which could further hamper economic progress.
Social Problem: Germany has experienced a significant influx of migrants and refugees in recent years, posing integration challenges. Issues such as language barriers, cultural differences, and discrimination can hinder successful 
Germany has been dealing with a significant immigration and refugee problem in recent years. The primary causes of this issue are conflicts, political instability, and economic hardship in several regions around the world. Germany, being a prosperous and stable country with a strong economy and a generous welfare system, has become an attractive destination for people seeking safety, asylum, and better opportunities.
The influx of immigrants and refugees into Germany began to rise significantly in 2015 when Chancellor Angela Merkel[ Syrian refugees find a safe haven in Germany – DW – 03/15/2021. (n.d.). dw.com. 
] announced an open-door policy for refugees fleeing wars in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. This decision was met with both support and criticism from different segments of German society.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the Ukraine-Russia war poses a serious challenge for Germany on the global political stage. Germany’s balancing act between supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and managing its economic ties with Russia has presented challenges in navigating this complex geopolitical dilemma. The outcome of the conflict, whether it be a Ukrainian or Russian victory, will have significant implications for Germany. In the event of a Ukrainian victory, Germany may be expected to take a leading role in mediating negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which could enhance its reputation as a peacemaker but also potentially strain its relationships within the EU. On the other hand, a Russian victory would alter the regional balance of power and potentially destabilize neighboring countries, leading to an influx of Ukrainian refugees and increased integration challenges for Germany. Furthermore, the conflict has had significant economic implications for Germany, including disruptions in trade, increased inflation, and hindered economic growth. Additionally, Germany has been grappling with the social problem of managing a significant influx of migrants and refugees, posing integration challenges and potentially impacting social cohesion. Overall, the Ukraine-Russia war has tested Germany’s political, economic, and social resilience, highlighting the complexities of navigating geopolitics and safeguarding its interests.
However, there is a possibility of significant developments in the Ukraine war due to some shock events that may occur between now and 2025.