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General information
Setup Name: Continuation breakout
Strategy Type: Breakout
Direction Bias: Long only, No Short
Timeframe: Daily chart
Setup Creator: Stockbee
Setup Description

Stage 1 - Uptrend. 
The uptrend should be more than 2 daily candles but less than 7 candles. 
At least 60% of the candles are green candles. 
The last candle in the leg must have the Highest High in the uptrend. 
The Highest High should be at least 20% higher than the lowest low in stage 1.
Stage 1 should demonstrate a strong price movement to the upside.
Volume typically increases during the uptrend stage.

We evaluate the success probability of a chart by judging the stage 1 uptrend by number of green candles:
80% - 100% of the candles are green candles: Great 
60% - 80% of the candles are green candles: Good
40% - 60% of the candles are green candles: Acceptable
Less than 40% of the candles are green candles: Bad

Stage 2 - Consolidation.
After the sharp move in stage 1 - uptrend, prices start to consolidate, and goes into stage 2 - consolidation
Stage 2 has from 2 to 7 daily candles. 
The lowest low candle in stage 2 should be lower than the highest high in stage 2, about 30% or less.
The last candle in stage 2 must not be up more than 2% compared to its previous day.
The second to last candle in stage 2 must not be up more than 2% compared to its previous day.
The first candle of stage 2 must be a red candle or a narrow range candle.
Volume typically decreases during the consolidation stage.
The average volume in the consolidation phase should be lower than the average volume in the uptrend phase
There is no big red candle in this stage 2 consolidation.

We evaluate the success probability of a chart by judging the stage 2 consolidation by the candles at the end of the stage 2:
There are 3 to 4 narrow range candles: Great 
There is 1 to 2 narrow range candles: Good
There is 1 red candle: Acceptable
There is no red or narrow candle: Bad


Stage 3 - Breakout day
After the orderly, compact, low volatility consolidation, prices start to break out to the upside, signaling a potential of another sharp move up, similar to stage 1 - uptrend.
The breakout candle must be a green candle.
The opening price can be less than the close of the previous day.
The opening price can not be more than 4% compared to the close of the previous day.
The closing price must be near 80% of the day high.
The volume of the breakout day doesn’t need to be high if the price of the stock is higher than 50$.
The volume of the breakout day needs to be higher than the average volume in stage 2 - consolidation if the price of the stock is less than 50$.



Market Structure

Resource: https://stockbee.blogspot.com/2014/01/swing-trading-using-momentum-bursts.html 

Momentum Burst

Stocks tend to move in momentum bursts during both bull and bear markets. In bullish periods, these bursts propel stocks upward over 3 to 5 days.

During a typical momentum burst, stocks follow a pattern that unfolds as follows:
	1.	Range Expansion Day: A strong initial move sets the direction.
	2.	Follow-Through Days: Prices continue rising for 2–3 more days.
	3.	Pullback: A brief pause or dip.
	4.	End of Momentum: The burst gradually loses strength.

This sequence is common in bullish markets. Sometimes, the burst extends over five days, or in rare cases, even 8 to 10 days. Occasionally, the sequence may include an inside day or minor pullback after the range expansion day. Despite these variations, most bursts last between 3 to 5 days.

Characteristics of Momentum Bursts

Returns: Stocks can gain 8 to 20% during a burst, and lower-priced stocks may rise up to 40%.
No Catalyst Needed: These bursts often occur without any significant news or catalyst.
Pattern-Based Trading: This approach relies on observing patterns and probabilities, not company fundamentals or news catalysts.
Systematic Approach: Trading these bursts is largely mechanical, with small profit targets in mind, usually 4 to 10%.

Momentum bursts always begin with a range expansion—a significant price move, often accompanied by increased trading volume. This expansion attracts a variety of traders, including breakout traders, momentum players, day traders, and quantitative traders, which fuels the move for the following days.

Understanding this pattern can be valuable for traders, as these bursts offer opportunities to capitalize on short-term moves based purely on price action and momentum, without requiring in-depth knowledge of the company.

Reasons behind trading momentum burst
Resource: https://stockbee.blogspot.com/2014/06/why-do-active-traders-focus-on-swing.html 

James Simons, one of the most successful hedge fund managers of recent decades, is renowned for pioneering high-frequency trading and building a team of the brightest minds in physics and mathematics. His hedge fund, staffed with around 80 PhDs, has rigorously tested virtually every conceivable variable in the markets. Before his hedge fund career, Simons worked as a code breaker for the CIA, applying his analytical skills to complex problems.

Simons remains famously secretive about his strategies and rarely discusses them. However, in one interview, when asked why his team of exceptionally skilled minds doesn’t focus on finding long-term market opportunities, he shared a compelling analogy. He explained that, through extensive testing, they’ve found that if someone begins a sentence with “New York,” it’s relatively easy to predict the next three or four words. But predicting the entire direction of a thousand-page novel based on the first two words is nearly impossible. So, instead of speculating on long, uncertain outcomes, they focus on shorter, high-probability moves.

This perspective aligns closely with the philosophy behind swing trading. Just as it’s easier to predict the next three or four words after “New York,” it’s more feasible to predict the next 3 to 5 price bars or an 8 to 20% move than to forecast the next 250 bars or a 100%+ move. Markets are full of these 3- to 5-day moves in the 8 to 20% range, making them attractive targets for traders seeking manageable, high-probability trades.

Entry Signal
The entry signal (the breakout day) is a range expansion.
Resource: https://stockbee.blogspot.com/2014/01/buy-range-expansion-at-beginning-of.html 

The core of swing trading is capturing a portion of a trend by buying at the start of a price swing and selling near its peak. A range expansion at the beginning of a swing is an ideal entry, as it signals fresh momentum.

Key Principles for Buying Range Expansions in Swing Trading

	1.	Buy After Consolidation: Enter on range expansion following a 5-10 day period of orderly, low-volatility consolidation. Such consolidation indicates equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A range expansion out of this phase shows fresh buying pressure and a potential new swing.
	2.	Buy After a Negative Day: Range expansion after a down day can signal the start of a fresh upswing, with buyers stepping in following minor selling pressure.
	3.	Buy After a Narrow Range Day: The narrower the range before the expansion, the more explosive the potential move. Multiple narrow-range days before range expansion amplify this effect, as pent-up energy is released in a strong move.
	4.	Avoid Stocks Already Up 3 Days in a Row: Buying after three consecutive up days is risky. Professional traders buy on the first range expansion day, while the second day is fueled by slower-moving buyers. By the third day, novice traders often enter with enthusiasm, unaware that experienced traders are already selling to lock in their 8-20% gains, leaving latecomers with the risk.
	5.	Buy Early in a New Trend: When a stock breaks out of a long consolidation of 3-6 months, it signals a young trend. Momentum burst setups in these early stages often yield profitable swings. However, buying in an extended trend, especially near all-time highs, requires extra caution and strict risk management, as extended trends are prone to swing reversals.

Core Rule: Buy Range Expansion at the Beginning of a Swing Move

For a swing trader, consistently entering at the start of a range expansion can be transformative. This approach captures powerful initial moves with minimal risk, compounding gains over time and saving traders from the pitfalls of chasing trends at vulnerable points. Following this one rule can lead to substantial profits and protect against unnecessary losses.

Exit Management
Resource: https://stockbee.blogspot.com/2013/12/stocks-move-in-short-term-momentum.html 

Stockbee Continuation breakout is a Momentum burst swing trading, which enables account growth with relatively low risk, as it focuses on capturing the most powerful segment of a stock’s movement over just 3 to 5 days. This short exposure avoids the stagnation of holding a stock during low-activity periods, where traders might be left waiting for an uncertain breakout.

Keys to Success in Momentum Burst Trading:

Disciplined Loss Management: Success with this strategy requires strict discipline to cut losses quickly if a trade doesn’t perform right away. In this approach, a strong exit discipline is as crucial as entry criteria.
Exiting in the Peak Phase: Timing exits to capture gains at the height of the move, before a reversal begins, is essential. The trader exits while momentum is still high, ensuring gains rather than risking a full reversal.

Expected Profit Per Trade

With momentum bursts, average returns per trade are typically around 5 to 8%, as the trader enters on breakout day when the stock may already be up 4 to 10%. This approach aims for a partial capture of the entire 8 to 20% move, focusing on the most potent portion without aiming for the full range.

High-Frequency, Compounding Approach

Momentum burst trading is a high-frequency, low-margin strategy, with traders needing to complete between 200 and 1,000 trades annually. The power of this method lies in the cumulative effect: each small gain compounds over time, leading to significant account growth. While each trade may yield a modest profit, the rapid succession of successful trades can drive substantial returns when executed consistently and with disciplined risk management.

Market Environment
Resource https://stockbee.blogspot.com/2014/01/swing-trading-using-momentum-bursts.html

There are certain market periods where momentum burst setups tend to fail, often around market turning points when breakouts are highly likely to reverse quickly. In these phases, many breakout trades can fail within a short time.

Timing is Crucial

Avoid Bullish Breakouts During Sell-Offs: Bullish momentum burst trades should be avoided during rapid market sell-offs, as breakouts are less likely to sustain in the face of heavy selling.

Market Bias and Trade Selection

The stock market generally has a positive bias, meaning it tends to move up more often than down over time. Because of this, there are typically more bullish momentum bursts than bearish ones. Traders can leverage this natural bias by focusing more on bullish setups in bull markets and selectively using bearish trades only when market conditions strongly favor downside momentum, or just sit on the sideline.

This understanding of market context is essential for improving success rates in momentum burst trading. By adjusting for market bias and timing setups based on broader trends, traders can avoid the common pitfalls associated with trading bursts during unfavorable conditions.