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Notes
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AT THE END, RE-REVIEW YOUR SUMMARY FOR ACCURACY AND CORRECTNESS.

TAKE CARE TO EXPLAIN ANY JARGON LIKE POC ETC.

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e

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e

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e

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e

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e e

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what's up

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guys just give me a minute we'll get

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started I want to say that I've solved

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for the uh microphone

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issue it was the weirdest issue for a

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long time um if I replayed any of the

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video that I took um on my desktop I

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couldn't hear it the only time that I

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could hear it is if I was listening

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from uh my phone so after video was

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uploaded

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uploaded um so that should be fixed give

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me some uh

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feedback and we'll get started in a

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minute no buzz yeah so the solution so I

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have pretty decent wire management I I

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think I do I mean I bought these uh like

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sleeves um sleeves or sheets whatever

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you want to call them for uh all the

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wires behind my computer and um I have a

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standing desk you know it's one of those

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desks that uh that adjusts um so I have

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to be mindful of the wires

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because you know if I I've done this

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before where I had everything set up

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with the computer and the wires and then

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I you know I pressed the desk uh the

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button to make it to make it elevate and

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uh you know there wasn't enough slack on

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a wire it would like yank like computer

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monitor wire out or the microphone wire

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out um so I fixed all that and I put

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these sleeves on the uh these wraps

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around the cords keep them all bundled

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and organized but I guess for some

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reason like the the wire that I have

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from my share mic to it's like this uh I

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don't know what it's called maybe it's

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just like this thing that connects the

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mic to the computer there's a box maybe

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it's an amp I don't know so I don't know

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anything about audio but uh for some

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reason the way that was set up was

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leading to static the only thing I the

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only thing that fixed it was taking the

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wire out and basically now I'm just

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going to be plugging it in whenever I

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whenever I have to record uh and then I

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you know wind it up and put it in my

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drawer but uh I'm glad

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the glad the sound is better so I'm

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going to keep this uh I'm going to try

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to keep this somewhat short you know

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that's ambitious um hopefully keep it

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around 45 minutes to an hour I was

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supposed to upload a pre-recorded video

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uh last night or yesterday and then

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schedule got all [ __ ] up uh and wasn't

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able to get around to that sound was

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[ __ ] up in the first one uh that's

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always a pain in the ass you do a

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pre-recorded video and you realize that

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like halfway through that something's

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messed up but so I figured I would do

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this and I'm not sharing this on Twitter

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um this will be this will be left up on

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the YouTube but I want this it sounds

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silly I want this kind of be like little

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intimate live stream for for anyone who

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is um who is in the telegram chat so if

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you've asked or you know you haven't

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asked because obviously the telegram is

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a channel so there's no discourse there

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there's no communication um it's

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one-sided but if you've had any

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questions uh if there's anything that

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you want me to go over and this isn't an

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invitation to just like shill a bunch of

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tickers it's more specific um then go

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ahead and uh leave those in the chat I

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have a few things obviously I want to

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touch on um there's some things that I I

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made a point of remembering to get back

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to uh and you know I want to accomplish

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that in in this uh stream as well so

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just kind of like running through the

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the list um on the the 27th or the 28th

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uh you guys remember that I shared that

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the coinbase premium blew out um at the

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same time that I was sharing this in the

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telegram everyone on Twitter was saying

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that the coinbase premium was blowing

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out and the burgers were buying and that

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it was a sign that you know we were

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going to continue to rip up to new highs

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and I had shared that instead that that

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was probably a sign that we were at a at

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least a local top um so I want to go

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into that and just uh propose a way that

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you could look at it or just set you at

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least in the right

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direction uh talk about obviously the

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leverage that's buying the dip um it's

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what we've seen over the last like 48

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hours

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plus um and then just touching back on

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the plans that I've been mentioning for

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the last two weeks and now I hope makes

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a little bit more sense why even though

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the idea aidea was that if you the idea

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is that scan the market for anything

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that's had a really strong September and

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you guys can look back to the channel

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and see exactly how I articulated this

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but basically look for what has had a

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really strong September if we are truly

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looking at a shift in market conditions

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assume that some uh assets will have a

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level of price inertia or momentum and

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bet on positive returns into October

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but the idea is and this is important

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because too many people jump the gun not

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that because you assume that October

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will have positive returns that you

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preposition but that you start looking

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as I said specifically in the first week

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of October I said um in the first week

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of October I would anticipate that if we

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had a pullback if we had a significant

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pullback it would be during then and

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more specifically if we are going to see

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continuation the low should be in by the

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first by the end of the first week of

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October so I think that that's an

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important

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um an important thing to distinguish

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because a lot of people kind of just you

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know oh October's going to be bullish oh

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we're just bull bullish to the end of

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the year like then just buy now right

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and uh this is like obviously this kind

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of like coincides with what I touched on

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yesterday you know for everyone who is

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following along you know I'm sure that

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you know whether or not it's it's it's

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very difficult to be unaware of what's

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taking place right now in the Middle

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East obviously I'm uh referring to to

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Iran attacking Israel I think you could

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bet that there's a

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99.9999% chance that Israel will

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retaliate this is based on their

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language and the um language coming from

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the United States leading up to this so

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it's pretty much in the bag already that

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you could anticipate they're going to

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retaliate um but there is geopolitical

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risk and when there is geopolitical

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uncertainty markets hate uncertainty and

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I said yesterday you know people had

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been saying oh yeah everyone has these

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like really simple urtic in crypto uh

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where it's like okay yeah uh you you buy

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the you know you you sell on the rumors

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award and you buy the Cannons and

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markets are all they're absolutely going

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to meert and yeah they they do mean RT

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but it's a matter of from where right um

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so timing is obviously very important so

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oil was ripping right oil anytime

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there's any kind of conflict in the

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Middle East there's you know there's an

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assumption that this could disrupt

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Supply chains and uh so you immediately

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see oil ripping you saw Equity indices

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um moving down pretty hard uh this is

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right after yesterday's around

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yesterday's open as for a couple other

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reasons as well it's not just from

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obviously the geopolitical uncertainty

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and what we saw uh in the Middle East um

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on Friday or leading up or this is

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whether this is on Friday Sunday I can't

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remember lose track of thought whatever

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uh I just lose track of thought now

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period because I feel like like I said

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I've given a significant amount of brain

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sells to my daughter but the markets

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were pinned for a while uh you had a

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significant options xer you had the JPM

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collar roll um and the S&P was pinned

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right around right around

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5750 uh where it's currently trading

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right now so there was pretty strong

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gamma effects right market makers um

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sell and Rising prices bu buy dropping

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prices or buy declining prices and

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keeping the market pinned once that

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expir is complete once that U has passed

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markets are kind of freed so post X

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markets are freed up to go anywhere and

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it just happened to be that this was the

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um uh this was a a pretty poor outcome

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to have after that so when markets are

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freed up obviously you know if you have

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some kind of significant Catalyst it

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could could have gone the other way but

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uh geopolitical risk usually starts off

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with markets obviously moving down um so

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crypto trading like a risk asset does uh

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gold was moving up as much as people

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want to believe that crypto is digital

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gold or Bitcoin more specifically is

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digital gold uh it's clear that um it

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majority of the time it trades and I've

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said like a young asset has the

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opportunity to sort of wear multiple

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identities but primarily it's a risk

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asset right uh it trades like a sort of

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like I've said in the past like a tech

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stock so we saw it follow equities

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pretty closely as long as there any

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there is any kind of Geo geopolitical

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uncertainty and there's any kind of um

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uh issues in traditional markets that

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are affecting indices at least in the

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near future I would assume that you're

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going to see sort of as close as you

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could get to a tick for tick correlation

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um a lot of times the you know BTC and

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apologies for being long with in the

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beginning a lot of times BTC more

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closely follows the Russell than the

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NASDAQ and sap if you're just going to

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go around go down through like the level

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of correlation coefficient between um

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Bitcoin and uh and I I refer to equity

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index Futures but the Russell right the

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NASDAQ and um the S&P so you'll see me

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share the es and NQ

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uh yeah

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so we'll get right to it um we'll take a

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look at BTC uh we'll take a look at

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stocks briefly and then we'll go through

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that list the watch list of alts that I

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00:12:40,799 --> 00:12:44,638
shared and that was alts that were

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00:12:42,198 --> 00:12:48,518
showing signs of of strength to begin

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00:12:44,639 --> 00:12:51,480
with and uh I will go through the um the

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chat as well and uh see any questions

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00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,839
that you guys have so first things first

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00:12:53,399 --> 00:12:57,399
I do want to touch on that coinbase

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00:12:54,839 --> 00:12:59,680
premium so I have a couple different

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00:12:57,399 --> 00:13:01,079
charts set up um this is is a relative

259
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,518
performance chart you guys know that

260
00:13:01,078 --> 00:13:05,558
I've used this and and we rather gone

261
00:13:03,519 --> 00:13:08,278
over this countless times in the past

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00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,837
anytime the market is looking strong uh

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00:13:08,278 --> 00:13:11,479
and you have a significant pullback one

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of the first things I want to do is see

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00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:16,199
who's the fastest horse out of the gate

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00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,720
and then not just that slice in time but

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let's say the market has been moving on

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momentum for a prolonged period of time

269
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and conditions are strong um I'm going

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00:13:22,039 --> 00:13:26,159
to be continuously checking this to see

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who is sort of how those horses and just

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stay in the we'll stay can yeah excuse

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me stay using um

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horses I I'll continue to check in and

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see how they are continuing to fa so if

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00:13:37,399 --> 00:13:42,320
let's say for example off of the lows

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every time whiff is strong you know it

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00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,518
pays to see that in isolation but it

279
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:48,119
also pays to notice it over time maybe

280
00:13:46,519 --> 00:13:50,160
that relationship is beginning to shift

281
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:52,600
right maybe whiff is no longer you know

282
00:13:50,159 --> 00:13:53,998
moving up um you know one of the signs

283
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,919
one of the sort of canaries in the coal

284
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:58,719
mine uh leading up to the larger

285
00:13:55,919 --> 00:14:00,919
pullback that we had um bigger picture

286
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,920
not this current one was you know some

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00:14:00,919 --> 00:14:05,638
of the more some of the stronger alts

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00:14:02,919 --> 00:14:08,558
were not sort of uh jumping out of the

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00:14:05,639 --> 00:14:10,119
gate as fast off of even local lows so

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00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:12,197
you just begin to see how relationships

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00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:14,999
shift um and this is a useful chart that

292
00:14:12,198 --> 00:14:18,077
you could create on on trading view uh

293
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:21,278
but down here this is the coinbase and

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00:14:18,078 --> 00:14:24,558
binance premium so or it's actually just

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00:14:21,278 --> 00:14:27,837
the basis so when coinbase is trading at

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00:14:24,559 --> 00:14:29,599
a premium to binance um it's going to be

297
00:14:27,839 --> 00:14:31,719
in the red and when binance is trading

298
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:34,800
at a premium to coinbase it's going to

299
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:37,838
be uh and you're going to see blue so

300
00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:39,318
better said um when binance is trading

301
00:14:37,839 --> 00:14:41,239
at a discount to coinbase if you just

302
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:43,279
looked at this like a coinbase

303
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,880
indicator might be better to use that

304
00:14:43,278 --> 00:14:47,999
because red is sort of always has this

305
00:14:44,879 --> 00:14:50,957
connotation with negative U negativity

306
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:52,839
but um when coinbase is trading at a U

307
00:14:50,958 --> 00:14:56,118
or I say binance trading at a discount

308
00:14:52,839 --> 00:14:59,119
to coinbase you'll see it in the red and

309
00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:01,278
when binance is trading at a um premium

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00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:03,959
coin base meaning the binance spot price

311
00:15:01,278 --> 00:15:06,558
using usdt um which is different than

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00:15:03,958 --> 00:15:10,318
the USD obviously right because USD usdt

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00:15:06,559 --> 00:15:12,999
is a parent of itself but uh and so that

314
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:15,039
my point is they could that can change

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00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:17,240
um sort of at a more minute Scale based

316
00:15:15,039 --> 00:15:19,878
on that relationship but when it's

317
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:21,799
larger right and coinbase is trading the

318
00:15:19,879 --> 00:15:23,559
coinbase spot price is trading above the

319
00:15:21,799 --> 00:15:25,198
binance spot price when the coinbase

320
00:15:23,559 --> 00:15:26,918
spot price is trading below the binance

321
00:15:25,198 --> 00:15:28,718
spot price a lot of times the market

322
00:15:26,919 --> 00:15:30,879
will look to this as you know either

323
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:33,079
some of strength or weakness and more

324
00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:35,119
specifically you know whether or not uh

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00:15:33,078 --> 00:15:36,957
our friends in uh the United States are

326
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:40,600
buying my friends in the United States

327
00:15:36,958 --> 00:15:43,517
so for the most part uh throughout this

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00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:45,800
entire you know last few years being

329
00:15:43,519 --> 00:15:48,759
that we have ETF products now especially

330
00:15:45,799 --> 00:15:49,837
um being that we have etps and a ton of

331
00:15:48,759 --> 00:15:52,319
trading obviously just comes to the

332
00:15:49,839 --> 00:15:54,560
United States um and institutional

333
00:15:52,318 --> 00:15:56,758
clients coinbase premium so when

334
00:15:54,559 --> 00:15:59,438
coinbase is trading at a premium to

335
00:15:56,759 --> 00:16:01,600
binance has been seen as some that is

336
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:04,159
very bullish right you know a lot of

337
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:06,319
times this has been uh assumed to be

338
00:16:04,159 --> 00:16:08,998
Michael sailor when it's been persistent

339
00:16:06,318 --> 00:16:11,879
and um you know continuous over time and

340
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:13,879
and and wide rather uh so Michael sailor

341
00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:15,838
is buying you know the the idea is oh

342
00:16:13,879 --> 00:16:17,637
sailor t- whopping so coinbase is you

343
00:16:15,839 --> 00:16:18,600
know trading above the binance spot

344
00:16:17,639 --> 00:16:21,360
price

345
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:23,518
consistently um so one of the

346
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,800
assumptions is okay if it continues to

347
00:16:23,519 --> 00:16:28,278
really widen then it's much stronger

348
00:16:25,799 --> 00:16:30,558
what you will see normally is yeah there

349
00:16:28,278 --> 00:16:33,039
will be sort of this consistent Norm

350
00:16:30,559 --> 00:16:34,757
between coinbase and binance right so

351
00:16:33,039 --> 00:16:37,598
let's say coinbase is in bullish

352
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:42,159
conditions trading at you know coinbase

353
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:44,399
is trading at talking points terms 15 20

354
00:16:42,159 --> 00:16:48,038
points above binance so let's say that

355
00:16:44,399 --> 00:16:52,040
you know binance for example right now

356
00:16:48,039 --> 00:16:53,317
is uh 652 coinbase is 652 as well

357
00:16:52,039 --> 00:16:56,638
they're basically they're at parity

358
00:16:53,318 --> 00:16:59,398
right fluctuating but very close let's

359
00:16:56,639 --> 00:17:02,159
say binance is trading at 600 coin base

360
00:16:59,399 --> 00:17:04,520
is trading at 620 right so

361
00:17:02,159 --> 00:17:07,838
61,62 okay so then it's the 20 point

362
00:17:04,519 --> 00:17:09,719
premium so on the 27th this is on the

363
00:17:07,838 --> 00:17:12,358
27th or the 28th it's actually right

364
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:14,678
here so right here uh that was the

365
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:16,599
27th um it was blowing out pretty

366
00:17:14,679 --> 00:17:20,438
consistently and this was over 40 points

367
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:22,398
so 40 is is considerable right when you

368
00:17:20,439 --> 00:17:25,958
normally see this relationship is you

369
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:28,959
know anywhere between 10 and 20 so 10

370
00:17:25,959 --> 00:17:30,439
and 20 bucks right 10 and 20 points so

371
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,919
it blew out it was over 40 it was

372
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:35,199
trading 50 this is right at the highs

373
00:17:32,919 --> 00:17:38,678
Market's not moving up anymore and again

374
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:40,480
sort of the idea on uh Twitter is that

375
00:17:38,679 --> 00:17:41,919
wow this is the you know New York

376
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,879
session really starting to ramp up

377
00:17:41,919 --> 00:17:45,640
buying burgers are buying yada yada yada

378
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:47,520
Market's going to go much higher mind

379
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:50,960
you this is exactly where this occurred

380
00:17:47,519 --> 00:17:53,318
right at the highs this is the 27th um

381
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,719
and this is uh right where it's this is

382
00:17:53,319 --> 00:17:57,759
basically right where it was blowing out

383
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:59,639
during that um morning session actually

384
00:17:57,759 --> 00:18:03,879
blew out even more as prices started

385
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:06,399
trading slightly um slightly lower and

386
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:10,158
uh continued to persist so instead of

387
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:13,279
burgers buying right the more likely

388
00:18:10,159 --> 00:18:15,840
more likely situation was that um

389
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:18,118
binance was selling much more heavily so

390
00:18:15,839 --> 00:18:20,438
it wasn't necessarily that the coinbase

391
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,558
premium was extending because of what we

392
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,120
were seeing on coinbase but instead it

393
00:18:22,558 --> 00:18:25,879
was because what we were seeing on

394
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,759
binance so binance was trading much

395
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,520
lower there was much more sell flow on

396
00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:32,598
binance and on coinbase

397
00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:34,759
um and briefly that that had blown out

398
00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:37,358
now it doesn't take much to actually

399
00:18:34,759 --> 00:18:39,999
just go through this pretty quickly um

400
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:42,677
through an eye test

401
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:45,599
and look at extremes right what has

402
00:18:42,679 --> 00:18:47,440
happened at extremes so this is uh under

403
00:18:45,599 --> 00:18:49,999
the relative performance chart but if

404
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:53,760
you to just plot BTC on this and this is

405
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:56,120
an easy indicator to access this is um

406
00:18:53,759 --> 00:19:00,558
this right here is it should be just

407
00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:00,558
under premium discount

408
00:19:02,798 --> 00:19:07,198
so premium discount input right there uh

409
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,959
and you could put any asset in there if

410
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,799
you want to you know to if you want to

411
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,919
look at the premium discount between

412
00:19:10,798 --> 00:19:14,599
binance spot and binance Futures you go

413
00:19:12,919 --> 00:19:16,520
ahead and input anything you could you

414
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:20,198
know doesn't even have to be U it could

415
00:19:16,519 --> 00:19:21,959
be a crypto a non- crypto whatever um

416
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,999
but you could look through this just

417
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:26,759
scroll through it as far back as you

418
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:28,960
want and look at what has happened I

419
00:19:26,759 --> 00:19:31,759
think you should probably keep a more uh

420
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:33,679
zoomed in view um look at what H look

421
00:19:31,759 --> 00:19:36,398
excuse me what has happened in the past

422
00:19:33,679 --> 00:19:38,799
when this is blown now and it's often

423
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,279
it's often at the ends of moves um so

424
00:19:38,798 --> 00:19:41,959
like I said it'll be persistent and

425
00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:43,718
lower during strong conditions but then

426
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,239
you'll see it blow out and it's kind of

427
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,440
like the whole Market assumes at that

428
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,200
point that I don't know things are just

429
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,799
going to extend much further in the near

430
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:52,879
future um when typically what you see is

431
00:19:50,798 --> 00:19:56,759
this does Mark sort of the at least

432
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:58,240
interm interm top um so this is notable

433
00:19:56,759 --> 00:20:00,279
right again this is something that the

434
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,119
market just assume was really bullish I

435
00:20:00,279 --> 00:20:04,158
posted about in the telegram and that

436
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:07,678
ended up being like the peo top of of a

437
00:20:04,159 --> 00:20:09,080
BTC move uh so something to note right

438
00:20:07,679 --> 00:20:11,520
understanding Norms understanding the

439
00:20:09,079 --> 00:20:14,359
normal behavior between different assets

440
00:20:11,519 --> 00:20:16,238
different markets in this case the same

441
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,798
asset but they kind of trade differently

442
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:21,440
on across different exchanges so how

443
00:20:18,798 --> 00:20:24,479
that binance and coinbase relationship

444
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:26,159
um is over time to be able to

445
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:28,039
distinguish kind of what stands out all

446
00:20:26,159 --> 00:20:29,599
right so it's not like you just take

447
00:20:28,038 --> 00:20:32,079
this and say reflexively all right that

448
00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:33,079
means it's a long it's a short um or

449
00:20:32,079 --> 00:20:35,398
that this is going to happen

450
00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:37,758
directionally in the near future it's to

451
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,159
be able to say that this time is

452
00:20:37,759 --> 00:20:43,318
something is unique this time around

453
00:20:40,159 --> 00:20:45,038
right um the next thing I want to cover

454
00:20:43,319 --> 00:20:47,359
is just the idea of Leverage buying the

455
00:20:45,038 --> 00:20:49,079
dip so this is something that we've see

456
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,319
after the market is kind of unanimous

457
00:20:49,079 --> 00:20:55,037
around unanimous agreement around the

458
00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:57,038
idea that uh we're up only right um so

459
00:20:55,038 --> 00:21:01,038
65 was the level that I said was my

460
00:20:57,038 --> 00:21:03,797
level 65 for a day is not necessarily

461
00:21:01,038 --> 00:21:05,797
acceptance right 65 for a few hours

462
00:21:03,798 --> 00:21:08,078
definitely less likely to be acceptance

463
00:21:05,798 --> 00:21:08,959
you need to see that prices remain bid

464
00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:11,759
and that there's some kind of

465
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,799
constructive PA and you know we barely

466
00:21:11,759 --> 00:21:15,797
had any presence above there but the

467
00:21:13,798 --> 00:21:17,599
market was under the assumption that

468
00:21:15,798 --> 00:21:19,519
okay even before October arrived that

469
00:21:17,599 --> 00:21:21,558
October is going to again lead to higher

470
00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:24,677
prices so why not just jam it all in

471
00:21:21,558 --> 00:21:27,678
there right now so in in the dips

472
00:21:24,679 --> 00:21:30,879
following that pullback we saw that the

473
00:21:27,679 --> 00:21:32,959
market remained very in terms of funding

474
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:35,038
funding remained positive during the

475
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,919
pullbacks we saw open interest go up

476
00:21:35,038 --> 00:21:39,238
funding transition briefly negative but

477
00:21:36,919 --> 00:21:41,119
then go back positive into the pullback

478
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,240
and so far it's just been a case of

479
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:46,479
washing out anyone who is trying to buy

480
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:48,320
the dip um by the dip on Leverage now

481
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:51,159
the thing is like this Market can arrive

482
00:21:48,319 --> 00:21:54,639
to a point where people are allocated in

483
00:21:51,159 --> 00:21:58,080
spot right and now it's even worse that

484
00:21:54,640 --> 00:22:00,359
exchanges offer uh unified margin right

485
00:21:58,079 --> 00:22:02,038
where you can post your spot as

486
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,319
collateral and then open Futures on top

487
00:22:02,038 --> 00:22:06,959
of that so you know this is something

488
00:22:04,319 --> 00:22:09,479
that can potentially exacerbate any ugly

489
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,879
moves um but up to this point we've seen

490
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,640
that again we haven't really seen you

491
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,960
know shorts get tremendously offside uh

492
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,640
instead we've seen that uh it looks like

493
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,799
someone on binance is just walking this

494
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,960
down there's a little bit of confidence

495
00:22:19,798 --> 00:22:24,238
inspired this morning uh a bunch of bids

496
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,719
layered under 60 those were moved the

497
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,959
market started to move down immediately

498
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:30,840
those placed again um but I it it

499
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:34,080
doesn't appear to be that there is any

500
00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:35,558
kind of constructive low put in for BTC

501
00:22:34,079 --> 00:22:37,119
and I think this does have obviously

502
00:22:35,558 --> 00:22:39,359
broader implications for ALS but we'll

503
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,759
get into that in a second as long as we

504
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,879
continue to see that Leverage is buying

505
00:22:40,759 --> 00:22:44,198
the dip um and it's not like you could

506
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,480
just look at open interest and say all

507
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,479
right that person is definitely you know

508
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,640
under collateralized but it's kind of

509
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,278
just a pattern right we've seen a lot of

510
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,120
times in the past when things look like

511
00:22:51,278 --> 00:22:55,119
and Market kind of gets very excited

512
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,518
about something you know the next thing

513
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,958
that you can anticipate is people are

514
00:22:56,519 --> 00:23:00,719
just jamming in across the board so if

515
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,678
you look at you know how alts were on

516
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,519
the low time frames just how alt

517
00:23:02,679 --> 00:23:08,999
Behavior was let's look at like whiff

518
00:23:04,519 --> 00:23:11,038
for example um another one is uh Tia

519
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,839
look zoomed out there's just a lot of

520
00:23:11,038 --> 00:23:16,478
positioning that was put in Behind these

521
00:23:12,839 --> 00:23:18,879
right say see on these moves up just

522
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,640
open interest continue to roof um and

523
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,719
some of these are still still sitting

524
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,840
decently like that level is protected

525
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,038
but if these continue to break down I

526
00:23:24,839 --> 00:23:27,557
don't imagine you're not going to see

527
00:23:26,038 --> 00:23:30,158
that come off and one thing I said about

528
00:23:27,558 --> 00:23:31,078
whiff this is leading up to uh this was

529
00:23:30,159 --> 00:23:33,960
around

530
00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:36,479
$2 with whff initially I said okay so

531
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,038
you have open interest jacked up but I

532
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,960
wouldn't look at this immediately and

533
00:23:38,038 --> 00:23:41,678
this is in a a video that I did over a

534
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:44,080
week ago and we ended up moving up

535
00:23:41,679 --> 00:23:45,879
another 50% I said I wouldn't look at

536
00:23:44,079 --> 00:23:47,199
this initial move up in open interest as

537
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,080
a sign to get worried and that that

538
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,440
we're going to you know completely um

539
00:23:50,079 --> 00:23:52,958
roll over on that what I would

540
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,039
anticipate is we continue to build open

541
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,319
interest and chop higher and I think

542
00:23:55,038 --> 00:23:57,759
that's when you start to get worried

543
00:23:56,319 --> 00:24:00,118
about positioning when people are sort

544
00:23:57,759 --> 00:24:01,759
of confident that you know confident

545
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,438
enough to add into this higher we're

546
00:24:01,759 --> 00:24:05,518
under resistance we haven't had any kind

547
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,959
of major change yet some of these again

548
00:24:05,519 --> 00:24:10,999
you have really nice monthly moves but

549
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:14,038
uh you know it Bitcoin as a whole has to

550
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,759
I think Bitcoin has to lead the way um

551
00:24:14,038 --> 00:24:17,078
so getting into plans I just wanted to

552
00:24:15,759 --> 00:24:19,239
cover I probably was a little longwinded

553
00:24:17,079 --> 00:24:22,239
about those but getting into

554
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:24,480
BTC again BTC following indices so if

555
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:28,558
you look at the BTC chart if you look at

556
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:30,319
um the NASDAQ chart these are moving

557
00:24:28,558 --> 00:24:31,759
uh pretty close together these are on

558
00:24:30,319 --> 00:24:34,198
different time settings right now so if

559
00:24:31,759 --> 00:24:36,917
we put this on like uh lower time frame

560
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,918
chart we'll

561
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:46,599
see so very tightly correlated right now

562
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:48,038
Bitcoin is back below that again this

563
00:24:46,599 --> 00:24:49,797
was probably one of the more significant

564
00:24:48,038 --> 00:24:51,839
pivots we've had in a long time being

565
00:24:49,798 --> 00:24:55,557
able to make a new high right we've had

566
00:24:51,839 --> 00:24:58,718
a series of lower highs and lower lows I

567
00:24:55,558 --> 00:25:01,838
don't know you know whether or not want

568
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:04,840
to be balls to thewall bullish if I'm

569
00:25:01,839 --> 00:25:07,718
someone yeah if you are in position

570
00:25:04,839 --> 00:25:09,478
right now it has to be on behalf of much

571
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,960
greater time Horizons than I think the

572
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,919
near future because we have well looks

573
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,919
to be just a continuation of what we've

574
00:25:13,919 --> 00:25:19,880
seen up to this point I mean I think if

575
00:25:15,919 --> 00:25:21,520
you draw on like a linear regression

576
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,880
channel on this

577
00:25:21,519 --> 00:25:29,397
thing it'll probably make it

578
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:32,399
perfect let's see there we go

579
00:25:29,398 --> 00:25:34,678
very clean right um so the pattern so

580
00:25:32,398 --> 00:25:36,959
far is has not broken

581
00:25:34,679 --> 00:25:38,399
majorly in the short term this is one of

582
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,678
the strongest signs that we've had in a

583
00:25:38,398 --> 00:25:42,038
long time right the market hasn't been

584
00:25:39,679 --> 00:25:44,520
able to do anything like that um in more

585
00:25:42,038 --> 00:25:46,478
recent history you know taking back a

586
00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:48,759
prior pivot but now we're again we're

587
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,678
trading back below that I think that you

588
00:25:48,759 --> 00:25:53,199
have to take back significant ground

589
00:25:51,679 --> 00:25:54,558
other than just intraday trading so I'll

590
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:57,079
go over some of the setups that I'm

591
00:25:54,558 --> 00:25:58,718
looking at um I think that to be sort of

592
00:25:57,079 --> 00:26:00,158
you know balls to the wall bullish you

593
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,918
need to see this thing start trading

594
00:26:00,159 --> 00:26:05,240
back above 64 back above that high right

595
00:26:02,919 --> 00:26:08,119
so something like trading back within

596
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,759
this structure filling out that LVN and

597
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,199
then trading back above that pivot I

598
00:26:09,759 --> 00:26:12,678
think that sends a a pretty strong

599
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,879
signal to the market but I think again

600
00:26:12,679 --> 00:26:18,999
this really relies on equity's not um

601
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:21,320
continuing to uh to fall off now if you

602
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,520
look back on another thing that was

603
00:26:21,319 --> 00:26:25,599
worth looking at and this is something

604
00:26:22,519 --> 00:26:27,358
that I shared um a couple videos ago if

605
00:26:25,599 --> 00:26:29,397
you look at just like an anchored vwap

606
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,319
off of this it's the same thing right so

607
00:26:29,398 --> 00:26:34,199
anchored vwap thing is respecting almost

608
00:26:31,319 --> 00:26:35,838
all the way down uh and now trading back

609
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:38,559
below that anchored vwap so just the

610
00:26:35,839 --> 00:26:40,319
idea that you know bears are still even

611
00:26:38,558 --> 00:26:43,558
if at the margin still in control of

612
00:26:40,319 --> 00:26:45,397
this um so high time frame you know I

613
00:26:43,558 --> 00:26:47,918
think you need to see that this Market

614
00:26:45,398 --> 00:26:49,598
continues to remain bid and now at this

615
00:26:47,919 --> 00:26:51,879
point like how much lower do you want to

616
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:55,318
go I don't think you want to lose 60k

617
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:57,038
right this does make sense as an area

618
00:26:55,319 --> 00:26:59,798
where you could potenti I mean on the if

619
00:26:57,038 --> 00:27:02,599
you look at this on the monthly chart

620
00:26:59,798 --> 00:27:05,599
not bad right if you look at this on the

621
00:27:02,599 --> 00:27:08,719
weekly chart uh it's a bit more bit more

622
00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:12,999
dire a little bit uglier um but this

623
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,1000
level right here I mean this level

624
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,200
is hold on one

625
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:22,360
sec has been a significant pivot in the

626
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:24,399
past um you know whether or not you want

627
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,439
to bet the farm on that again I think

628
00:27:24,398 --> 00:27:29,119
that I think I I don't like the market

629
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,959
to sort of hang out at a low um I like

630
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,558
to see that you know it's very quickly

631
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,1000
rejected from a low we're you know we're

632
00:27:33,558 --> 00:27:36,518
a couple points off of it you know

633
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,120
couple me a couple thousand points off

634
00:27:36,519 --> 00:27:39,677
of it before saying all right that's

635
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,917
it's definitely a sign of demand this

636
00:27:39,679 --> 00:27:45,278
thing continues to just get uh walked

637
00:27:41,919 --> 00:27:48,480
down so 60 I think a good Line in the

638
00:27:45,278 --> 00:27:50,839
Sand High time frame is you know is

639
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,960
probably that 65 level honestly that

640
00:27:50,839 --> 00:27:53,999
might sound silly because I was just

641
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:56,519
talking about this local pivot but that

642
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:59,120
65 level I think is significant you know

643
00:27:56,519 --> 00:28:00,360
was the original level and it also

644
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,558
accounts for the fact that this thing

645
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,557
can squeeze up and continue to make sort

646
00:28:02,558 --> 00:28:07,838
of this this pattern that we've had you

647
00:28:04,558 --> 00:28:09,157
know this entire way down um so that's

648
00:28:07,839 --> 00:28:10,678
something to be mindful of so I don't

649
00:28:09,159 --> 00:28:12,599
even know if you want to look at 60 I

650
00:28:10,679 --> 00:28:14,679
mean if we're continuing it depends on

651
00:28:12,599 --> 00:28:17,278
how we get there right if we I guess the

652
00:28:14,679 --> 00:28:19,518
best way to put it is whether it's here

653
00:28:17,278 --> 00:28:22,638
or here maybe is not as important as how

654
00:28:19,519 --> 00:28:25,640
we move up there right so if we are you

655
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:28,558
know based out two days pop up and we're

656
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:30,120
vertical into this level I think that's

657
00:28:28,558 --> 00:28:33,599
something that I would be more likely to

658
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:35,439
fade um and counter than if we you know

659
00:28:33,599 --> 00:28:37,358
for example let's say we don't even

660
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,919
accomplish that in the near future but

661
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,238
we start trading back above you know

662
00:28:38,919 --> 00:28:44,119
this is more in line with like lower

663
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:45,999
time frame setups um trading back within

664
00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:47,478
this structure so that was like a weekl

665
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,480
long value

666
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:52,919
area these lows trading back within this

667
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:55,640
range basically so you know look at it

668
00:28:52,919 --> 00:29:00,039
as shortterm setup back above weekly

669
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,039
view up so we're trading back above 63

670
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,999
more bullish obviously would be trading

671
00:29:02,558 --> 00:29:07,397
back above that October 1st high right

672
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,080
so anytime you have a throwback

673
00:29:07,398 --> 00:29:10,438
obviously worst case scenario is being

674
00:29:09,079 --> 00:29:12,878
rejected right

675
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,199
here um you want to look for signs of

676
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,558
acceptance back within that prior

677
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,720
structure so if you do get a sign of

678
00:29:15,558 --> 00:29:20,998
acceptance at 63 you know I'd probably

679
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:23,519
look to 637 and then potentially

680
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,038
645 uh best case scenario would be if

681
00:29:23,519 --> 00:29:27,640
we're looking at this entire structure

682
00:29:25,038 --> 00:29:29,438
63 645 imagine that that's the value

683
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,880
area of this entire composite leaving

684
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,919
out that composite up there something

685
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,558
better would be us trading back above

686
00:29:33,919 --> 00:29:38,919
that kind of puts us back at that 65

687
00:29:35,558 --> 00:29:41,157
level so a strong move up basing out at

688
00:29:38,919 --> 00:29:43,319
65 um and then spending a little time

689
00:29:41,159 --> 00:29:45,200
there so you know how long we're able to

690
00:29:43,319 --> 00:29:46,598
spend there I think would be I think

691
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,639
would be a good sign I mean if we

692
00:29:46,599 --> 00:29:51,438
continue

693
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:54,039
to if we continue to sort of stair step

694
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:57,558
up so we hold 63 you know Market remains

695
00:29:54,038 --> 00:29:58,599
bid things look constructive um then I

696
00:29:57,558 --> 00:29:59,998
don't know maybe you could get a little

697
00:29:58,599 --> 00:30:02,397
bit more bullish rather than waiting for

698
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,399
65 but this is why it's always you know

699
00:30:02,398 --> 00:30:06,678
talking about things that are yet to be

700
00:30:04,398 --> 00:30:09,638
seen right to talk about PA that yet to

701
00:30:06,679 --> 00:30:11,558
be seen um is always a little bit you

702
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,360
know a little bit silly right you still

703
00:30:11,558 --> 00:30:15,239
have to you have to wait for some kind

704
00:30:13,359 --> 00:30:17,037
of confirmation in the flow and the tape

705
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,799
and and see if things look constructive

706
00:30:17,038 --> 00:30:20,118
above that level and by constructive you

707
00:30:18,798 --> 00:30:22,398
know even on a lower time frame seeing

708
00:30:20,119 --> 00:30:23,359
that prices are again you know doing the

709
00:30:22,398 --> 00:30:26,558
things that you would normally see in

710
00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:28,319
bullish conditions making higher lows um

711
00:30:26,558 --> 00:30:30,078
continuing to grind up right anything

712
00:30:28,319 --> 00:30:32,198
that hangs out so if we're back up here

713
00:30:30,079 --> 00:30:36,439
and we're sort of hanging out and

714
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:37,559
hugging 645 65 I'm more inclined to

715
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,158
expect that that is something that

716
00:30:37,558 --> 00:30:41,078
continues to push through then something

717
00:30:39,159 --> 00:30:43,519
again that kind of revisits it very

718
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:45,758
quickly um so in the short

719
00:30:43,519 --> 00:30:49,360
term it's kind of like we're between a

720
00:30:45,759 --> 00:30:51,879
rock and a hard place and you know

721
00:30:49,359 --> 00:30:53,998
it's it's the first week of October

722
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:56,240
right it is an election season so I

723
00:30:54,000 --> 00:31:01,719
think that that probably takes precedent

724
00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:06,278
over most other detail sales um and from

725
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:10,399
now into the election day uh or when it

726
00:31:06,278 --> 00:31:12,598
begins right November um markets could

727
00:31:10,398 --> 00:31:14,239
continue to chop around right if the S&P

728
00:31:12,599 --> 00:31:15,319
continues to chop around if we see that

729
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,679
and we have a good amount of data coming

730
00:31:15,319 --> 00:31:19,479
out this week the S&P continues to chop

731
00:31:17,679 --> 00:31:20,960
around then there I don't think there

732
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,319
would be a reason for Bitcoin to just

733
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,038
leave that relationship behind even

734
00:31:23,319 --> 00:31:30,238
though gold is for example gold has been

735
00:31:25,038 --> 00:31:33,438
moving up um so yeah that I think is

736
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:35,799
just at least a the shortterm Outlook 65

737
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,839
64 that window is where I think I would

738
00:31:35,798 --> 00:31:38,798
see I want to see things get

739
00:31:36,839 --> 00:31:40,439
constructive right so the idea again is

740
00:31:38,798 --> 00:31:43,879
just there's a few things right you're

741
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:46,959
trading back above um this week's vwap

742
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:49,559
so you know over the last 48 hours 72

743
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,879
hours plus Bears definitely in control I

744
00:31:49,558 --> 00:31:52,798
hate to put it like that Bulls of bears

745
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,880
of control Sellers and control let me

746
00:31:52,798 --> 00:31:58,198
get rid of this I don't know why that's

747
00:31:54,880 --> 00:32:00,798
here we go um so if we're able to trade

748
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,679
back above excuse me back above um last

749
00:32:00,798 --> 00:32:04,879
week's vwap this week's vwap start to

750
00:32:02,679 --> 00:32:06,360
retake that positioning and I think you

751
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,960
have at least the start of a good sign

752
00:32:06,359 --> 00:32:10,998
you know if you just look at these lows

753
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:13,599
you're able to base back above there um

754
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,679
again the idea is that getting there if

755
00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:17,119
we're there fast I don't like that as

756
00:32:15,679 --> 00:32:18,1000
much as if we're there and we're kind of

757
00:32:17,119 --> 00:32:21,479
just messing around slow you know

758
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:24,000
chopping um and then you have something

759
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:25,638
that's you know sort of funneling higher

760
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,559
it's you don't step in front of this you

761
00:32:25,638 --> 00:32:29,278
know you step in front of that right if

762
00:32:27,558 --> 00:32:30,558
this is resistance and you have

763
00:32:29,278 --> 00:32:32,718
something like this you know price of

764
00:32:30,558 --> 00:32:34,239
stair stepping into it versus price that

765
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:37,1000
you know has come over to it in a

766
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,799
30-minute candle um much more inclined

767
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,839
to buy this resistance and sell this

768
00:32:39,798 --> 00:32:46,118
kind of move

769
00:32:41,839 --> 00:32:49,239
right uh okay let's look at um alt and

770
00:32:46,119 --> 00:32:49,239
I'll take a look at the chat in a

771
00:32:53,798 --> 00:32:59,759
second okay I had a few that were

772
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,440
on The Daily real quick let me just look

773
00:32:59,759 --> 00:33:02,517
at

774
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,638
BTC um see if there's anything at least

775
00:33:02,519 --> 00:33:07,278
on The Daily that we

776
00:33:04,638 --> 00:33:08,638
have you know if this day closes out

777
00:33:07,278 --> 00:33:11,678
like

778
00:33:08,638 --> 00:33:14,239
this I haven't had uh We've haven't had

779
00:33:11,679 --> 00:33:15,760
an inside day since the high so an

780
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,320
inside day

781
00:33:15,759 --> 00:33:20,677
setup if this closes out six hours

782
00:33:18,319 --> 00:33:23,798
remaining I mean could have Clos out

783
00:33:20,679 --> 00:33:23,799
like this sure

784
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,839
um I don't know if it's going to

785
00:33:28,319 --> 00:33:31,959
let's see that's

786
00:33:29,839 --> 00:33:35,199
yesterday the inside day for this kind

787
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:38,360
of structure is less meaningful I think

788
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:42,719
um so inside Day meaning you know

789
00:33:38,359 --> 00:33:43,998
yesterday's high and low and uh if it's

790
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:47,359
a little bit easier if you just put this

791
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,359
on previous day high and

792
00:33:48,839 --> 00:33:53,839
low so there's yesterday's high there's

793
00:33:51,359 --> 00:33:55,998
yesterday's low uh if we close this

794
00:33:53,839 --> 00:33:59,879
structure out as it is so if we close

795
00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:02,080
today as is you know potentially a setup

796
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,080
would

797
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:07,079
be let's say that we close out right

798
00:34:04,519 --> 00:34:08,599
here right that's your high let's say

799
00:34:07,079 --> 00:34:10,998
that this is

800
00:34:08,599 --> 00:34:14,280
your

801
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:16,759
low uh in this particular case I think

802
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:19,240
the most bullish setup would be you know

803
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:22,439
if you're expecting that

804
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:26,598
bulls have any control

805
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:28,678
um if there's any real demand the best

806
00:34:26,599 --> 00:34:31,118
case for this would be an inside day

807
00:34:28,679 --> 00:34:33,320
failure to the downside right so here's

808
00:34:31,119 --> 00:34:34,878
your low today and and this day is not

809
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,078
closed out for another six hours so it's

810
00:34:34,878 --> 00:34:39,318
kind of silly to talk about but um the

811
00:34:37,079 --> 00:34:42,200
idea would be we close out like this

812
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:44,159
this is prior days high prior days low

813
00:34:42,199 --> 00:34:45,638
we're within that structure it's not a

814
00:34:44,159 --> 00:34:47,399
really balanced situation because it's

815
00:34:45,639 --> 00:34:50,560
coming off of a strong move

816
00:34:47,398 --> 00:34:53,678
down um but the idea would be break what

817
00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:56,278
is today's low unconvincingly trade back

818
00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:58,999
within and then the best situation would

819
00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:00,760
be doing that making that inside day

820
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,359
move right to the extreme of the prior

821
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,800
day which is often what you get okay and

822
00:35:03,358 --> 00:35:07,598
then having a

823
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:10,240
reclaim and then maybe that is a a more

824
00:35:07,599 --> 00:35:14,320
formidable low the opposite situation

825
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,719
would be a failure above the high right

826
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:19,119
A lot of times if you're playing these

827
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:20,398
inside day setups um a break outside of

828
00:35:19,119 --> 00:35:22,920
this

829
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,199
structure often will for a continuation

830
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,759
move at least give you something like

831
00:35:24,199 --> 00:35:28,439
this to the prior Day

832
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,760
High um

833
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,520
but you still have to this is just it's

834
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:33,119
never that you you take this level and

835
00:35:31,519 --> 00:35:35,318
say okay this means you buy this means

836
00:35:33,119 --> 00:35:36,680
you sell if we're above or below it's

837
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,800
just okay this is a level that I really

838
00:35:36,679 --> 00:35:40,239
want to pay attention at and it becomes

839
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,199
like I said for this situation it's

840
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,958
actually far less significant because

841
00:35:42,199 --> 00:35:46,998
it's not coming off of a balanced um set

842
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:49,599
of conditions whereas up here is a much

843
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:52,280
different story so up here you had three

844
00:35:49,599 --> 00:35:54,480
inside days right so you had three

845
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:56,598
inside you excuse me you had two so you

846
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:58,598
had one inside day here so that day

847
00:35:56,599 --> 00:36:01,640
inside the prior and then the same the

848
00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:03,079
following day so this was um a very

849
00:36:01,639 --> 00:36:04,879
balanced set of conditions to play a

850
00:36:03,079 --> 00:36:06,039
break from and there was a lot of

851
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,520
different ways that you could play this

852
00:36:06,039 --> 00:36:10,399
breakdown but um the idea was it was

853
00:36:08,519 --> 00:36:12,879
just very tight it was basically inside

854
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,640
day is a break from balance without much

855
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,679
more

856
00:36:13,639 --> 00:36:16,918
information um so you could further

857
00:36:15,679 --> 00:36:18,639
strengthen that you know you could

858
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:21,240
further strengthen that setup when you

859
00:36:18,639 --> 00:36:23,078
have uh you know for example if you're

860
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:25,158
looking at a TPO chart and you have

861
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:28,598
multiple days of value overlap in this

862
00:36:25,159 --> 00:36:30,598
case you do um PC's pretty lined up just

863
00:36:28,599 --> 00:36:32,559
makes for a stronger stronger setup and

864
00:36:30,599 --> 00:36:35,560
you had poor lows in the structure as

865
00:36:32,559 --> 00:36:38,358
well um so as far as alts go let me look

866
00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:38,357
at the chat real

867
00:36:41,639 --> 00:36:45,719
quick good morning good morning good

868
00:36:47,119 --> 00:36:53,960
morning so hopefully I answer that

869
00:36:49,199 --> 00:36:55,918
coinbase cre uh premium question uh yeah

870
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:58,920
EXO's aggregated footprint is a a nice

871
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,920
tool

872
00:37:00,838 --> 00:37:04,798
um I think that it makes sense to use it

873
00:37:03,159 --> 00:37:07,519
now I think that if you use it with

874
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,639
something like buit and and binance you

875
00:37:07,519 --> 00:37:11,639
have the best information you're going

876
00:37:08,639 --> 00:37:13,837
to get from uh from derivative

877
00:37:11,639 --> 00:37:14,998
markets whereas I think fragmentation

878
00:37:13,838 --> 00:37:17,399
was probably a little bit more important

879
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:19,200
in the past but for the most part it's

880
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,040
been binance and bybit that have led

881
00:37:19,199 --> 00:37:23,317
this Market from an open from a

882
00:37:21,039 --> 00:37:27,317
positioning

883
00:37:23,318 --> 00:37:27,318
standpoint uh

884
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:37,040
just scrolling through um so I I what I

885
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,919
had said at the in September which was

886
00:37:37,039 --> 00:37:42,598
just a couple days ago uh or what I had

887
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:45,960
said about a week ago at now now is that

888
00:37:42,599 --> 00:37:48,799
my idea for the strong September closes

889
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,719
in select alts would be not that the O

890
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,159
not that October would exceed that

891
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,799
September return but that it would

892
00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:55,518
probably be positive so the idea was

893
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:58,240
that price would have some level of

894
00:37:55,519 --> 00:38:00,358
inertia um you just see

895
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,598
continuation right big high time frame

896
00:38:00,358 --> 00:38:04,638
move like a monthly pivot so for example

897
00:38:02,599 --> 00:38:07,720
you know what's a what's a good example

898
00:38:04,639 --> 00:38:10,118
of a strong shift strong shift is

899
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:13,118
probably like say or Sue um if you look

900
00:38:10,119 --> 00:38:16,479
at this on the uh Sue is probably going

901
00:38:13,119 --> 00:38:17,519
to be much stronger obviously um Pepe is

902
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,760
a good

903
00:38:17,519 --> 00:38:22,759
example uh I know there's a sort of a

904
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,720
prime example of weakness T is a prime

905
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:28,760
example of weakness to is a prime

906
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:31,959
example of strength um what else we have

907
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:33,359
uh salana is pretty ugly say's here

908
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,399
we'll stick with say I said that first

909
00:38:33,358 --> 00:38:37,039
right and then I don't know what I do I

910
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:39,440
clicked on Sue which is um completely

911
00:38:37,039 --> 00:38:41,279
blown out but what I had said was you

912
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:43,839
want to look for charts like

913
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:45,440
this the Assumption was that this turn

914
00:38:43,838 --> 00:38:47,838
like the idea of big ships turn slowly

915
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:49,800
that this turn would not fizzle out

916
00:38:47,838 --> 00:38:51,597
immediately so one you're setting a

917
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,359
filter right you're not looking at so

918
00:38:51,599 --> 00:38:56,160
now that we have the closes right and

919
00:38:53,358 --> 00:38:58,878
you didn't preposition like a [ __ ] um

920
00:38:56,159 --> 00:39:01,479
if we look at something like say versus

921
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:03,920
something like Tia well you have a much

922
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:05,239
different set of conditions right Tia

923
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,560
actually so the last thing I shared

924
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,879
about Tia was that this looked like it

925
00:39:07,559 --> 00:39:12,158
was possibly setting up for a

926
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:14,599
continuation and blowoff type of move so

927
00:39:12,159 --> 00:39:17,639
that was we're basically back here and

928
00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:18,799
I'd Shar this in the um the telegram and

929
00:39:17,639 --> 00:39:20,438
I was anticipating that we were going to

930
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,960
squeeze further because we started to

931
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,239
see a good amount of selling come in and

932
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,679
we know that there's unlocks coming up

933
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:29,158
um and instead of squeezing further that

934
00:39:26,679 --> 00:39:31,318
just this was completely overwhelmed and

935
00:39:29,159 --> 00:39:32,958
TI is actually one of the few and this

936
00:39:31,318 --> 00:39:34,639
is why pre-positioning was was so

937
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:36,520
important or rather not pre-positioning

938
00:39:34,639 --> 00:39:39,518
was so important while this did look

939
00:39:36,519 --> 00:39:42,038
like a good short-term trade um it was

940
00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:44,158
the monthly shift that I thought or that

941
00:39:42,039 --> 00:39:46,439
I had mentioned would probably be sort

942
00:39:44,159 --> 00:39:48,199
of the defining characteristic in in how

943
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,598
I filtered the trades for the month of

944
00:39:48,199 --> 00:39:52,479
October so I mean if you look at how Tia

945
00:39:50,599 --> 00:39:54,759
Clos if you look at how a Clos you can

946
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:58,079
see there's a completely different uh

947
00:39:54,760 --> 00:40:01,559
level of strength communicated um Tia

948
00:39:58,079 --> 00:40:03,040
actually gave the backside retest setup

949
00:40:01,559 --> 00:40:04,639
that I had mentioned in the telegram and

950
00:40:03,039 --> 00:40:07,077
I didn't say specifically about Tia but

951
00:40:04,639 --> 00:40:09,358
I said listen if some of these are going

952
00:40:07,079 --> 00:40:11,760
to blow off and there are going to be

953
00:40:09,358 --> 00:40:15,117
good short opportunities there will be

954
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:16,760
right um and I think I think on Twitter

955
00:40:15,119 --> 00:40:18,079
I'd mentioned this right somewhere in

956
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,199
the telegram I think I'd mentioned this

957
00:40:18,079 --> 00:40:22,119
specifically about Tia so don't be early

958
00:40:20,199 --> 00:40:24,279
to it wait for the backside retest

959
00:40:22,119 --> 00:40:26,838
meaning wait for the the chart to

960
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,1000
actually break down um to have a more

961
00:40:26,838 --> 00:40:29,999
evidence based base entry and the

962
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:33,480
backside retest for Tia is actually this

963
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:36,639
bullish setup failing right so the idea

964
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:39,199
that you know Market is grinding higher

965
00:40:36,639 --> 00:40:42,959
back above a prior again this level back

966
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:45,519
here is a prior Supply Zone holding that

967
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:47,440
as support this leading to continuation

968
00:40:45,519 --> 00:40:49,159
right expecting to squeeze more of those

969
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,520
Hedges that we saw come in or possibly

970
00:40:49,159 --> 00:40:54,559
squeeze them and instead the backside

971
00:40:51,519 --> 00:40:56,959
retest short setup was that failing and

972
00:40:54,559 --> 00:41:00,519
this retesting and and and serving as

973
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:03,319
Supply again so you have a much more

974
00:41:00,519 --> 00:41:05,198
defined um contextual level to base

975
00:41:03,318 --> 00:41:06,559
positioning around and I didn't even

976
00:41:05,199 --> 00:41:07,638
look at this chart since then and it's

977
00:41:06,559 --> 00:41:09,398
continued to move down that was a

978
00:41:07,639 --> 00:41:11,279
phenomenal setup but you know whatever

979
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:13,680
you can't take everything and certainly

980
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:15,280
can't pay attention to everything um but

981
00:41:13,679 --> 00:41:16,719
the point was even just before that I

982
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:20,039
was talking about this looking bullish

983
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:21,558
so that didn't work out well but my idea

984
00:41:20,039 --> 00:41:23,679
is that again you waited for the

985
00:41:21,559 --> 00:41:25,317
September close and that's prior

986
00:41:23,679 --> 00:41:27,598
September close right so if we look at

987
00:41:25,318 --> 00:41:29,518
say for example say at think is a

988
00:41:27,599 --> 00:41:32,720
perfect candidate so the idea is that

989
00:41:29,519 --> 00:41:34,679
say had a really strong September move I

990
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:37,159
think it's likely that we could see off

991
00:41:34,679 --> 00:41:38,999
of the month off of the pairs that have

992
00:41:37,159 --> 00:41:42,239
closed out really strong continuation

993
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:44,118
play through October um and you know Sue

994
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,919
is continuing to rip up so sue is like a

995
00:41:44,119 --> 00:41:47,639
runaway market right now so if you look

996
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:50,479
at Sue on The Daily it looks like

997
00:41:47,639 --> 00:41:52,198
nothing's happened um but SE I think is

998
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,960
a little bit better because SE is now

999
00:41:52,199 --> 00:41:56,958
finally starting to do what I mentioned

1000
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:59,960
I'd be sort of looking to filter further

1001
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:02,559
uh and that is pullback half a weekly

1002
00:41:59,960 --> 00:42:05,240
ATR so this is your weekly ATR right

1003
00:42:02,559 --> 00:42:08,158
your weekly ATR is actually if we put on

1004
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:11,279
the ATR you'll see weekly ATR is that's

1005
00:42:08,159 --> 00:42:15,199
open interest Opa I think it's collapsed

1006
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:17,760
there we go wait why is it not restore

1007
00:42:15,199 --> 00:42:23,478
pain oh I'm on the monthly that's

1008
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:26,279
why so the weekly ATR for um say is1 so

1009
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:29,039
meaning the average so average true

1010
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:31,959
range right the average true range so on

1011
00:42:29,039 --> 00:42:34,598
a look back period of I think this is 20

1012
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:37,118
um the average weekly range right so

1013
00:42:34,599 --> 00:42:39,160
basically a norm so what I had said was

1014
00:42:37,119 --> 00:42:40,240
if we get a pullback that's half that

1015
00:42:39,159 --> 00:42:43,357
and a lot of these you're seeing that

1016
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:45,798
that falls kind of within um a window of

1017
00:42:43,358 --> 00:42:47,199
10% in the first week of October that is

1018
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,400
something that'll look to bid and that

1019
00:42:47,199 --> 00:42:51,357
doesn't imply you know you're just

1020
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:54,079
you're just buying once it hits 10%

1021
00:42:51,358 --> 00:42:55,479
right or once it satisfies that criteria

1022
00:42:54,079 --> 00:42:56,760
uh the idea is that's where to you know

1023
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:59,200
I think that's a good window to start

1024
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:02,279
looking or rather a good window just to

1025
00:42:59,199 --> 00:43:04,798
look at right so if uh we're looking at

1026
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:06,119
the month of October right we're down

1027
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,960
right now

1028
00:43:06,119 --> 00:43:11,200
6% uh we're down

1029
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:13,519
02 my point is that for this

1030
00:43:11,199 --> 00:43:15,118
specifically you could give it we'll

1031
00:43:13,519 --> 00:43:18,879
just say six points right because weekly

1032
00:43:15,119 --> 00:43:23,199
ATR is 11 so six points let keep it

1033
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:23,200
right at six uh line that up

1034
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,839
nicely roughly right there and then when

1035
00:43:26,679 --> 00:43:29,998
you zoom

1036
00:43:27,838 --> 00:43:31,519
out this actually is one of those

1037
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,599
situations where I said this kind of

1038
00:43:31,519 --> 00:43:34,837
lines up

1039
00:43:32,599 --> 00:43:36,640
perfectly with what should reasonably

1040
00:43:34,838 --> 00:43:37,878
act as support now like if this Market

1041
00:43:36,639 --> 00:43:40,118
is going to remain bullish it shouldn't

1042
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,960
go back below this level right uh and we

1043
00:43:40,119 --> 00:43:43,880
have Pepe kind of flirting around with

1044
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:46,479
that as well so pep is kind of in a

1045
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:49,280
similar situation um but the point is

1046
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:52,720
right now we have October opened from

1047
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:55,558
here to that open is where I want to

1048
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:58,039
look for a sign of strength if it is

1049
00:43:55,559 --> 00:44:00,559
again if it's uh if if we're on Friday

1050
00:43:58,039 --> 00:44:02,718
we're starting to put in some kind of

1051
00:44:00,559 --> 00:44:04,039
micro structural higher lows we're

1052
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:06,999
starting to trade constructively at

1053
00:44:04,039 --> 00:44:08,357
least flat um so you know let's say we

1054
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,359
continue to March into the end of the

1055
00:44:08,358 --> 00:44:12,999
week and we are doing something that is

1056
00:44:11,358 --> 00:44:17,159
more in lines with like let's say for

1057
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:18,318
example this PA right so Market is put

1058
00:44:17,159 --> 00:44:21,519
in a low and then we're starting to

1059
00:44:18,318 --> 00:44:23,919
grind up um trade back above even local

1060
00:44:21,519 --> 00:44:25,479
pivots um then you know maybe we're

1061
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:28,799
looking at at least another move to the

1062
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,440
highs and you know OCT October could be

1063
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,679
just a positive month not a month that's

1064
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:32,680
like

1065
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:39,118
September hopefully that uh provided a

1066
00:44:36,079 --> 00:44:41,399
little bit more clarity um but as I said

1067
00:44:39,119 --> 00:44:44,040
pepe is a good example of something that

1068
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:46,480
is already doing this um so Pepe had a

1069
00:44:44,039 --> 00:44:50,439
strong September Pepe for the month of

1070
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:53,558
September up uh almost 40% on the close

1071
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:56,079
starting to pull back now already down

1072
00:44:53,559 --> 00:44:58,160
about 7% and again retesting that

1073
00:44:56,079 --> 00:44:59,680
significant contextual level so that

1074
00:44:58,159 --> 00:45:02,159
going back to August that inflection

1075
00:44:59,679 --> 00:45:05,919
point right there

1076
00:45:02,159 --> 00:45:08,479
so arguably this is where it should

1077
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:10,118
happen and constructive PA for this

1078
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,680
would be what I mean if that's your

1079
00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:12,999
original low second low and I'm going

1080
00:45:11,679 --> 00:45:14,159
just keep these it doesn't you know

1081
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,359
don't worry don't get hung up on the

1082
00:45:14,159 --> 00:45:18,798
Precision of the drawings you know if

1083
00:45:16,358 --> 00:45:21,039
we're starting to mark down like this

1084
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:23,920
and then we see price kind of basing

1085
00:45:21,039 --> 00:45:25,638
out retaking local levels you're

1086
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,279
starting to even form a range I think

1087
00:45:25,639 --> 00:45:30,478
you have a more defined set of condition

1088
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:34,119
to start basing some kind of bullish uh

1089
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:37,358
bullish setup or or entry off of

1090
00:45:34,119 --> 00:45:39,680
um the the the invalidation is literally

1091
00:45:37,358 --> 00:45:41,039
right there right there's no reason why

1092
00:45:39,679 --> 00:45:43,357
if this is bullish we should be giving

1093
00:45:41,039 --> 00:45:48,638
back that much of the month of September

1094
00:45:43,358 --> 00:45:48,638
right um and trading back below that

1095
00:45:49,039 --> 00:45:55,159
pivot let's go back to the the chat real

1096
00:45:52,159 --> 00:45:55,159
quick

1097
00:46:07,599 --> 00:46:12,079
yeah the binance cvd is always is has

1098
00:46:09,838 --> 00:46:14,679
been down only basically one don't use

1099
00:46:12,079 --> 00:46:17,040
cvds outside of I'd say like a 30 minute

1100
00:46:14,679 --> 00:46:18,478
time frame um and two I think that it

1101
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:20,078
has to do with like the default the

1102
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,839
default order type on binance if you're

1103
00:46:20,079 --> 00:46:25,119
just going to go place an order I'm

1104
00:46:21,838 --> 00:46:25,117
pretty sure it's still just a limit

1105
00:46:25,318 --> 00:46:29,399
order so it's going to create create

1106
00:46:27,199 --> 00:46:31,558
that skew

1107
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:34,079
skew whereas you can imagine that the

1108
00:46:31,559 --> 00:46:36,240
default cvd on a high time frame for an

1109
00:46:34,079 --> 00:46:40,160
exchange that is like let's say for

1110
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:42,878
example uh coinbase so we'll look at um

1111
00:46:40,159 --> 00:46:42,879
CBD right

1112
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:47,118
here uh look at spot

1113
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:56,199
cvd you'll see coinbase is just going to

1114
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,200
be up

1115
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,959
now this is why cvd on the high time

1116
00:47:00,358 --> 00:47:04,678
frames is basically useless um you could

1117
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,200
imagine that any kind of spot venue is

1118
00:47:04,679 --> 00:47:08,719
going to have just more takers coming in

1119
00:47:06,199 --> 00:47:11,159
especially a Fiat onramp and it's going

1120
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:12,759
to leave a a a cvd skewed on the very

1121
00:47:11,159 --> 00:47:15,718
high time frames I wouldn't look at cvd

1122
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:15,720
outside of a 30-minute

1123
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,679
chart um all right do you think that it

1124
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:26,159
could be risk

1125
00:47:23,679 --> 00:47:28,518
off do War concerns and very

1126
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:29,998
controversial

1127
00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:32,118
um I don't think you could have four

1128
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:33,799
months of risk off really off of just

1129
00:47:32,119 --> 00:47:35,760
that information like I

1130
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,598
wouldn't I don't know I wouldn't make

1131
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,960
bets

1132
00:47:36,599 --> 00:47:41,280
on conditions outside of for me it's

1133
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:44,319
like making predictions is kind of silly

1134
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:46,440
um it's fun to do but to assume that the

1135
00:47:44,318 --> 00:47:50,117
next four months are going to

1136
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:53,039
be risk off I mean we'll see right as a

1137
00:47:50,119 --> 00:47:53,039
card hit the table we'll

1138
00:47:53,679 --> 00:47:59,078
see I think the post elction the

1139
00:47:57,679 --> 00:48:01,959
and I've said this in the past I think

1140
00:47:59,079 --> 00:48:03,559
the the best the highest likelihood of

1141
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,799
like a really strong move is probably

1142
00:48:03,559 --> 00:48:05,800
post

1143
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,879
elction isn't October usually not a good

1144
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:13,279
month during the election years volatile

1145
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,279
yeah but not bullish and trafi good

1146
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,598
month positions yeah I know I think

1147
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,880
that's so that's why it's you know this

1148
00:48:16,599 --> 00:48:23,118
is not something that's cut and dry and

1149
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:24,439
very simple um the chances of price

1150
00:48:23,119 --> 00:48:26,240
having some kind of momentum for the

1151
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:28,040
really strong pairs I think in isolation

1152
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,318
is high I think that it doesn't matter

1153
00:48:28,039 --> 00:48:31,519
if you're looking at September or

1154
00:48:29,318 --> 00:48:35,039
October like if you're looking at some

1155
00:48:31,519 --> 00:48:36,679
of these really strong moves in alt um

1156
00:48:35,039 --> 00:48:39,439
which haven't been idiosyncratic this is

1157
00:48:36,679 --> 00:48:41,118
very like much Factor driven uh so it's

1158
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,839
not like you know individual projects

1159
00:48:41,119 --> 00:48:44,319
are doing things that are really

1160
00:48:42,838 --> 00:48:47,519
different and now Market is getting

1161
00:48:44,318 --> 00:48:48,919
behind those um you know people just

1162
00:48:47,519 --> 00:48:51,959
kind of slammed a bunch of risk into

1163
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:54,118
everything again uh but if if you were

1164
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:55,839
to look at multi-on Trends right and

1165
00:48:54,119 --> 00:48:58,519
look at the market moving down multi

1166
00:48:55,838 --> 00:48:59,998
months right multiple quarters and then

1167
00:48:58,519 --> 00:49:02,199
you see that there's a shift on that

1168
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:04,318
high time frame chart you know it's it's

1169
00:49:02,199 --> 00:49:06,279
likely that things have a little bit of

1170
00:49:04,318 --> 00:49:09,117
follow through so you'll see you know

1171
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,959
backtack Green months for example um

1172
00:49:09,119 --> 00:49:13,039
especially if pairs have been really

1173
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,440
strong right so I I've given a few

1174
00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:16,999
examples of the really strong pairs this

1175
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:19,799
is why that filter I think is important

1176
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:23,040
um so that is I think is reasonable BET

1177
00:49:19,798 --> 00:49:25,317
right betting on sort of uh serial order

1178
00:49:23,039 --> 00:49:27,558
correlation or just momentum in in in

1179
00:49:25,318 --> 00:49:30,318
those particular pairs but again this is

1180
00:49:27,559 --> 00:49:34,520
doesn't occur in isolation and a very

1181
00:49:30,318 --> 00:49:37,919
strong factor is the fact that uh the

1182
00:49:34,519 --> 00:49:40,398
S&P and or crypto and and Equity indices

1183
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:42,960
which you know Trade One Way um during

1184
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:45,440
an election cycle uh are very well you

1185
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:49,240
know very well connected right now so

1186
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:51,039
we're very tightly connected um so it's

1187
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:53,317
tough like it you know which way is it

1188
00:49:51,039 --> 00:49:53,317
going to

1189
00:49:53,559 --> 00:49:58,200
go you know up until this point the

1190
00:49:56,838 --> 00:50:00,798
returns and this is something I've said

1191
00:49:58,199 --> 00:50:04,479
going back you know six months

1192
00:50:00,798 --> 00:50:06,998
ago up until this point the returns for

1193
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:10,239
populous election Cycles right so what

1194
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:12,318
we have right now uh for the S&P are

1195
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:15,279
usually much greater than your standard

1196
00:50:12,318 --> 00:50:17,638
you know standard calendar year so you

1197
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:22,520
know to this point has that been

1198
00:50:17,639 --> 00:50:24,879
evidenced um I think so right but um you

1199
00:50:22,519 --> 00:50:27,398
know if you look at just year to date

1200
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,440
but yeah we'll see I mean

1201
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,239
you could expect that there'll be

1202
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,880
volatility I think the closer we get to

1203
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:36,598
the election so I mean listen

1204
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,598
it's it's anybody's

1205
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:57,520
guess all right uh let's see is there

1206
00:50:52,679 --> 00:51:01,399
did I might just ex this out no um

1207
00:50:57,519 --> 00:51:03,837
ino's Tokyo session if you just look at

1208
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,839
I have

1209
00:51:04,679 --> 00:51:12,958
a I have a session split so one second

1210
00:51:10,119 --> 00:51:12,960
it's on the screen

1211
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:22,598
above yeah I see your

1212
00:51:23,079 --> 00:51:28,559
point about Tokyo session leading into

1213
00:51:25,599 --> 00:51:28,559
London

1214
00:51:28,679 --> 00:51:31,038
I don't know if there's enough meat on

1215
00:51:29,838 --> 00:51:33,439
the bone there

1216
00:51:31,039 --> 00:51:34,558
to really uh continue to extend that

1217
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:37,279
relationship moving forward it might

1218
00:51:34,559 --> 00:51:37,280
just be a spous

1219
00:51:39,039 --> 00:51:43,077
correlation what else what else is there

1220
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:46,400
anything else that I wanted to touch on

1221
00:51:43,079 --> 00:51:48,479
I just wanted to further clarify that

1222
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:50,720
um that

1223
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:52,239
point about September and why

1224
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:55,199
pre-positioning for that

1225
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:58,798
was never the

1226
00:51:55,199 --> 00:52:00,998
idea uh while we're looking at it salana

1227
00:51:58,798 --> 00:52:03,919
this move in salana is pretty ugly

1228
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:07,318
there's a lot of positioning that's come

1229
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:09,838
off I mean I so I am someone who said

1230
00:52:07,318 --> 00:52:11,959
and this is again you know nothing is

1231
00:52:09,838 --> 00:52:15,318
really this is strong opinions loosely

1232
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:17,240
held um a couple weeks back before this

1233
00:52:15,318 --> 00:52:18,479
move up IID said that I think salana

1234
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,798
kind of reminds me of like the bouncing

1235
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:23,680
ball of 2018 for BTC where it just

1236
00:52:20,798 --> 00:52:25,679
continued to hold support right so clean

1237
00:52:23,679 --> 00:52:27,357
it's doing a great job and then it's a

1238
00:52:25,679 --> 00:52:29,438
matter of like all at once it gives and

1239
00:52:27,358 --> 00:52:32,798
we we mark down through that 120 level I

1240
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:35,199
you know I don't I think that salana has

1241
00:52:32,798 --> 00:52:38,158
a it has a Finish Line where it has to

1242
00:52:35,199 --> 00:52:41,117
make it like it has to do work before o

1243
00:52:38,159 --> 00:52:43,519
before March when you have a significant

1244
00:52:41,119 --> 00:52:45,838
amount of unlocks coming into the market

1245
00:52:43,519 --> 00:52:47,557
and in in the right conditions like this

1246
00:52:45,838 --> 00:52:49,959
doesn't matter right when there's like a

1247
00:52:47,559 --> 00:52:52,078
bunch of fresh buyers it doesn't matter

1248
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:54,200
like we've seen plenty of Supply get

1249
00:52:52,079 --> 00:52:56,119
overwhelmed in the past and just it's

1250
00:52:54,199 --> 00:52:56,958
meaningless right in the face of good

1251
00:52:56,119 --> 00:52:58,680
conditions

1252
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:02,118
but if we're looking at a market that is

1253
00:52:58,679 --> 00:53:06,198
not maybe universally bid across the

1254
00:53:02,119 --> 00:53:07,838
board um then that's you know that's a

1255
00:53:06,199 --> 00:53:09,439
that's not a good thing right so for

1256
00:53:07,838 --> 00:53:10,758
salana to have a bunch of Supply come in

1257
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:13,959
and they not necessarily be enough

1258
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:16,439
marginal buyers right now um you know

1259
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:18,280
not a bid to go around for everybody

1260
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,960
then I wouldn't be surprised if like

1261
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,119
this pattern that everyone is looking at

1262
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:23,879
saying is the most bullish pattern ever

1263
00:53:22,119 --> 00:53:26,519
right this huge bull flag as I've seen

1264
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:28,679
it described like a yearly bull flag uh

1265
00:53:26,519 --> 00:53:32,919
breaks down and I actually I would say

1266
00:53:28,679 --> 00:53:34,518
like how I lean is probably 55 45 that

1267
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,880
that's what this

1268
00:53:34,519 --> 00:53:39,557
does so you know it's so clean and then

1269
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:42,078
next thing we get is we get this final

1270
00:53:39,559 --> 00:53:43,919
wash out before any kind of

1271
00:53:42,079 --> 00:53:46,519
continuation uh and I think the move

1272
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:49,359
over the last couple days like there are

1273
00:53:46,519 --> 00:53:50,679
alts that are still looking really good

1274
00:53:49,358 --> 00:53:53,358
in the face of what we've seen over the

1275
00:53:50,679 --> 00:53:55,358
last 24 48 hours but then you know

1276
00:53:53,358 --> 00:53:58,919
equally so there are a lot of just pairs

1277
00:53:55,358 --> 00:54:02,439
that have completely given back back um

1278
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:04,559
and again the market has like a tendency

1279
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:07,159
you know especially this Market to just

1280
00:54:04,559 --> 00:54:09,039
Jam in at the sight of like any kind of

1281
00:54:07,159 --> 00:54:10,038
potential continuation right Jam in

1282
00:54:09,039 --> 00:54:13,918
meaning

1283
00:54:10,039 --> 00:54:15,439
just blow out the Futures Market um

1284
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,400
below out positioning in a very short

1285
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:18,279
amount of time and that's why I've

1286
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,880
always said like open interest doesn't

1287
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:22,999
matter what the absolute level of open

1288
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:27,679
interest is it matters how it like the

1289
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:27,679
rate of change right matters more

1290
00:54:28,318 --> 00:54:31,039
some of these are already giving back

1291
00:54:29,639 --> 00:54:34,999
everything right

1292
00:54:31,039 --> 00:54:34,999
so wild was jammed

1293
00:54:35,798 --> 00:54:43,038
up some of these still have a good

1294
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:45,200
amount of positioning that is so far

1295
00:54:43,039 --> 00:54:46,398
okay let me collapse all these to make

1296
00:54:45,199 --> 00:54:50,958
it a little bit e actually I don't have

1297
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:53,959
to excuse me I forgot that I have this

1298
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,960
uh

1299
00:54:54,039 --> 00:54:59,878
setup with open interest now

1300
00:54:57,318 --> 00:54:59,879
get rid of that

1301
00:55:02,599 --> 00:55:08,839
drawing the [ __ ] is going on excuse

1302
00:55:05,519 --> 00:55:08,837
me uh

1303
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:15,480
okay where is

1304
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:17,759
Bon open interest

1305
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:22,119
there what's going on why is this not

1306
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:22,119
loading there we go

1307
00:55:29,159 --> 00:55:34,439
just trying to get an idea of like what

1308
00:55:31,159 --> 00:55:38,357
looks maybe like

1309
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:38,359
it's approaching a pain

1310
00:55:38,599 --> 00:55:42,440
point and when I say approaching a pain

1311
00:55:40,798 --> 00:55:43,838
point if you were just to take like

1312
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,359
where you see a sharp open interest

1313
00:55:43,838 --> 00:55:48,557
increase and then take like a an

1314
00:55:45,358 --> 00:55:48,558
anchored vwap off of

1315
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:55,319
that say probably has a good amount of

1316
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:57,117
positioning to wipe if this continues to

1317
00:55:55,318 --> 00:55:59,238
trade through these lows

1318
00:55:57,119 --> 00:56:00,839
right if you imagine that positioning

1319
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:02,919
behind this move positioning behind this

1320
00:56:00,838 --> 00:56:04,679
move relatively safe as as soon as you

1321
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:06,558
start to approach this my I guess the

1322
00:56:04,679 --> 00:56:07,958
best way to put it is these things can

1323
00:56:06,559 --> 00:56:09,720
come completely

1324
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:12,200
undone

1325
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:13,478
um by just getting close to even some of

1326
00:56:12,199 --> 00:56:15,638
those Break Even

1327
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:17,160
points you know if this Market is like

1328
00:56:15,639 --> 00:56:19,438
uncertain about whether or not this move

1329
00:56:17,159 --> 00:56:23,037
is honest and you start to see the

1330
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:25,680
Domino's Fallen some

1331
00:56:23,039 --> 00:56:27,920
um don't be surprised if we're you know

1332
00:56:25,679 --> 00:56:29,879
we trade much lower but that's why like

1333
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,759
levels like this so the box is white so

1334
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:35,1000
that doesn't help that's why levels like

1335
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:37,479
this I think are really important so

1336
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,640
these levels have to hold we can't give

1337
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:41,720
back a move like this and then you know

1338
00:56:39,639 --> 00:56:43,879
to remain like turbo bullish on these

1339
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:45,879
pairs you know for now like something

1340
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:47,759
like this I think deserves deserves

1341
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:49,719
respect right but there's only a few

1342
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:52,119
that's the point it's not like you know

1343
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:54,438
cross the board Al are just looking

1344
00:56:52,119 --> 00:56:56,838
incredible it's you know it's very

1345
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:58,118
obvious now who is holding up and and

1346
00:56:56,838 --> 00:56:59,159
who isn't and I think one of the better

1347
00:56:58,119 --> 00:57:01,558
things you could do and I'll probably

1348
00:56:59,159 --> 00:57:06,718
just try to wrap this up apologies

1349
00:57:01,559 --> 00:57:09,039
for taking along um is for example you

1350
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:11,679
if we just put on BTC just get a clear

1351
00:57:09,039 --> 00:57:11,680
idea of where it

1352
00:57:12,079 --> 00:57:17,479
is where is it why is this

1353
00:57:15,559 --> 00:57:21,759
not one

1354
00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:28,159
sec so for example like from let's use

1355
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:28,160
uh the uh September 30th highs

1356
00:57:38,559 --> 00:57:42,879
right so sue is

1357
00:57:40,559 --> 00:57:46,118
is you know other than that chart you

1358
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:47,359
know sue and say um those charts make it

1359
00:57:46,119 --> 00:57:49,920
clear but also if you're just looking at

1360
00:57:47,358 --> 00:57:54,638
relative Performance Off the

1361
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:57,160
highs you know what is BTC down uh 3 4%

1362
00:57:54,639 --> 00:57:59,837
4% almost 5%

1363
00:57:57,159 --> 00:58:02,479
um say actually had more overthrow but

1364
00:57:59,838 --> 00:58:06,798
if you look at from the actual pivot

1365
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:06,798
pivot things begin to shift a little

1366
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:12,240
bit let's look at it off of this low it

1367
00:58:10,798 --> 00:58:19,239
won't keep

1368
00:58:12,239 --> 00:58:19,239
you October 1st I'm using BTC obviously

1369
00:58:26,679 --> 00:58:30,399
I would suggest you do this more

1370
00:58:28,119 --> 00:58:34,1000
precisely like use the actual date and

1371
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:37,239
time cfx interesting China

1372
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:38,599
relation but across multiple time frames

1373
00:58:37,239 --> 00:58:40,358
you could see that Sue is obviously

1374
00:58:38,599 --> 00:58:42,079
really strong Sue is I looked at that

1375
00:58:40,358 --> 00:58:46,279
chart earlier and that was the one that

1376
00:58:42,079 --> 00:58:48,200
I said was just getting away right um is

1377
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:50,480
this the is this something that you want

1378
00:58:48,199 --> 00:58:54,038
to buy at this

1379
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:54,039
point I don't think

1380
00:58:54,679 --> 00:58:59,879
so I think this is probably going to be

1381
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,880
the last thing to really pull

1382
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,400
back it's tough call with where this

1383
00:59:14,119 --> 00:59:16,558
Market is right now because everyone's

1384
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:18,679
talking

1385
00:59:16,559 --> 00:59:20,200
about conditions right now that are just

1386
00:59:18,679 --> 00:59:23,078
not really evidenced right there's no

1387
00:59:20,199 --> 00:59:24,958
new retail yet so what we need is enough

1388
00:59:23,079 --> 00:59:26,880
of a bid from current market

1389
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:29,679
participants people that have been in

1390
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:32,319
this market to lift prices to new highs

1391
00:59:29,679 --> 00:59:33,959
to get people excited again and that's

1392
00:59:32,318 --> 00:59:36,238
why I focus so much on bitcoin because I

1393
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:38,359
think it has to be Bitcoin like no one

1394
00:59:36,239 --> 00:59:40,519
pays attention to this Market because

1395
00:59:38,358 --> 00:59:41,719
you know if optimism makes a new high

1396
00:59:40,519 --> 00:59:44,159
it's not going to get anyone in this

1397
00:59:41,719 --> 00:59:48,159
market you know if Bitcoin breaks

1398
00:59:44,159 --> 00:59:52,838
through alltime highs it's on CNBC right

1399
00:59:48,159 --> 00:59:56,758
um so I think it has to it really the

1400
00:59:52,838 --> 00:59:56,758
weight is carried by BTC

1401
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:02,719
so it is tough to hold things right now

1402
01:00:00,358 --> 01:00:05,399
with much hope um because you need sort

1403
01:00:02,719 --> 01:00:06,598
of that Tailwind for a lot of alts I

1404
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,558
think there's a lot of alts It's just

1405
01:00:06,599 --> 01:00:12,240
tough to tell what kind

1406
01:00:08,559 --> 01:00:13,839
of fundamental value they have if any

1407
01:00:12,239 --> 01:00:16,399
and a lot of alts are good momentum

1408
01:00:13,838 --> 01:00:18,879
trade and if momentum is not evidenced

1409
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:22,159
anymore then you know they move up

1410
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:22,159
quickly and they move down just as

1411
01:00:24,119 --> 01:00:27,760
quickly and a lot of the bullish setups

1412
01:00:26,318 --> 01:00:29,597
are actually

1413
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:31,720
failing so that's something to be

1414
01:00:29,599 --> 01:00:34,599
mindful of so there's really only a few

1415
01:00:31,719 --> 01:00:39,358
things left that have that se that

1416
01:00:34,599 --> 01:00:39,358
criteria that I was filtering for

1417
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:45,760
um and again these even these kind of

1418
01:00:42,239 --> 01:00:49,317
rely they do rely on BTC so you know

1419
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:52,078
filtering now with Bitcoin and with this

1420
01:00:49,318 --> 01:00:53,638
monthly setup right so you're looking at

1421
01:00:52,079 --> 01:00:57,760
TA you're looking at se you're looking

1422
01:00:53,639 --> 01:00:59,198
at Sue you're looking at um p a uh

1423
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:00,440
there's obviously this is just the watch

1424
01:00:59,199 --> 01:01:01,798
list that I have set up right now but

1425
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:04,239
there's a ton of other pairs that you

1426
01:01:01,798 --> 01:01:05,519
you know I'm sure you guys can like

1427
01:01:04,239 --> 01:01:08,279
scroll

1428
01:01:05,519 --> 01:01:12,238
through and see uh the monthly situation

1429
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:12,240
on those how they've how they've kind of

1430
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:19,999
shifted wow see that's already given up

1431
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:21,519
everything but not a strong close right

1432
01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:23,919
no signs of and I'm just using the

1433
01:01:21,519 --> 01:01:25,358
monthly because it's more zoomed out

1434
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:26,480
it's a sign that things are shifting

1435
01:01:25,358 --> 01:01:28,999
than if you're looking looking at what a

1436
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:30,440
4our chart so there's a little bit more

1437
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:33,359
there's a little bit more Merit behind

1438
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:33,359
saying something like

1439
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:38,319
that but we know that this uh Market can

1440
01:01:36,358 --> 01:01:39,398
move it could take 30 days to move up

1441
01:01:38,318 --> 01:01:41,639
and then five minutes to move all the

1442
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:43,680
way down so anyway I think I'm going to

1443
01:01:41,639 --> 01:01:45,239
wrap it up guys uh I wanted to get on

1444
01:01:43,679 --> 01:01:48,719
here

1445
01:01:45,239 --> 01:01:51,158
live take some questions um cover some

1446
01:01:48,719 --> 01:01:51,158
of my

1447
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:57,839
thoughts as far as just like downside

1448
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,839
goes for

1449
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:06,759
BTC you know this is locally a

1450
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:10,440
reasonable support level as I think I

1451
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:13,479
said that earlier

1452
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:16,239
um so this is kind of a sticky

1453
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:17,480
point I think it it's nice with that

1454
01:02:16,239 --> 01:02:22,439
sort of I don't know if I could draw on

1455
01:02:17,480 --> 01:02:25,119
that 60k round number level right

1456
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:28,119
um so I don't know I'm I think I'm going

1457
01:02:25,119 --> 01:02:29,1000
to play this mostly shortterm so the

1458
01:02:28,119 --> 01:02:33,439
setups I talked about if we get that

1459
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:35,960
sort of inside day setup that's great um

1460
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:37,920
I I doubt that like I said at the

1461
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:40,519
beginning I doubt that this is put in

1462
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:42,838
the low yet right so if this is the

1463
01:02:40,519 --> 01:02:44,999
pullback it it could be that this is and

1464
01:02:42,838 --> 01:02:47,998
it stops right here but I don't know if

1465
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:49,759
it's put in like

1466
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:52,960
the I don't know if there's enough

1467
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:54,119
evidence that it's done yet right so

1468
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:58,118
some kind of

1469
01:02:54,119 --> 01:02:59,960
swipe re acceptance I I'm much rather

1470
01:02:58,119 --> 01:03:03,760
position behind that than saying oh

1471
01:02:59,960 --> 01:03:03,759
structure buy you

1472
01:03:04,079 --> 01:03:10,279
know I think that covers it

1473
01:03:07,838 --> 01:03:12,439
though but yeah I guess the final thing

1474
01:03:10,278 --> 01:03:15,399
I'd say is like I would have pretty

1475
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:17,520
strict standards for for price and for

1476
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:18,960
the behavior that you want to see um I'd

1477
01:03:17,519 --> 01:03:20,398
be very careful about getting into

1478
01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:23,1000
things early and getting swept up by

1479
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:27,558
emotions on the timeline because uh

1480
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:30,559
everybody that has been like look to for

1481
01:03:27,559 --> 01:03:32,999
some kind of wisdom or uh predictive

1482
01:03:30,559 --> 01:03:35,999
power in this market these are people

1483
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:37,759
that honestly like I've you some people

1484
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:39,000
that I've known for a long time really

1485
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:41,119
respect there's a lot of people that I

1486
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:42,240
kind of laugh at even more now who

1487
01:03:41,119 --> 01:03:45,439
thought that they you know had some kind

1488
01:03:42,239 --> 01:03:49,878
of predictive power uh have just

1489
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:53,680
been like taken for a ride over the last

1490
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:55,439
year plus um with like saying things

1491
01:03:53,679 --> 01:03:58,518
with certainty and then the market just

1492
01:03:55,440 --> 01:04:00,959
doing whatever it wants so I think that

1493
01:03:58,519 --> 01:04:03,198
you have to one you have to go with your

1494
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:05,879
own system obviously but you

1495
01:04:03,199 --> 01:04:07,239
know I think you have to give the market

1496
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:09,239
the respect it deserves right now and

1497
01:04:07,239 --> 01:04:11,519
really require a lot from it before you

1498
01:04:09,239 --> 01:04:14,239
really get uh turbo

1499
01:04:11,519 --> 01:04:16,238
bullish but we'll monitor those um alt

1500
01:04:14,239 --> 01:04:17,838
setups and I'll keep uh you post it in

1501
01:04:16,239 --> 01:04:21,357
the telegram with how those are playing

1502
01:04:17,838 --> 01:04:23,879
out we'll keep an eye on this BTC setup

1503
01:04:21,358 --> 01:04:25,399
um if it rather if it transpires if we

1504
01:04:23,880 --> 01:04:27,920
actually get something that might set up

1505
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:31,919
so that inside day close if uh

1506
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:33,359
yesterday's low hold um and yeah I don't

1507
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:36,160
think there's anything crazy going on

1508
01:04:33,358 --> 01:04:39,199
right now all let's see oil's come off a

1509
01:04:36,159 --> 01:04:42,277
little bit stocks have somewhat of a bid

1510
01:04:39,199 --> 01:04:45,758
um so that's good but

1511
01:04:42,278 --> 01:04:47,919
uh I don't know big move down right now

1512
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:47,920
in

1513
01:04:48,239 --> 01:04:52,078
BTC but a lot of that oi coming off

1514
01:04:50,719 --> 01:04:53,399
we're just washing out positioning in

1515
01:04:52,079 --> 01:04:55,838
the Futures

1516
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:57,999
Market coinbase has been trading at a

1517
01:04:55,838 --> 01:05:01,679
account to binance now

1518
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:01,680
for the last few

1519
01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:07,200
sessions where'd that

1520
01:05:04,199 --> 01:05:10,199
go you can just use this

1521
01:05:07,199 --> 01:05:10,199
actually

1522
01:05:12,039 --> 01:05:19,039
um one

1523
01:05:15,358 --> 01:05:20,598
sec yeah coinbase trading at a discount

1524
01:05:19,039 --> 01:05:22,358
on and off so it's it's tough to even

1525
01:05:20,599 --> 01:05:25,358
tell honestly they're jumping around

1526
01:05:22,358 --> 01:05:27,638
there's no like uh clear premium or

1527
01:05:25,358 --> 01:05:27,639
discount

1528
01:05:28,239 --> 01:05:32,838
now yeah it's like a couple points below

1529
01:05:30,838 --> 01:05:36,679
10 points above markets are kind of

1530
01:05:32,838 --> 01:05:40,838
dislocated anyway guys I'm going to uh

1531
01:05:36,679 --> 01:05:44,438
head out head off and if you have any

1532
01:05:40,838 --> 01:05:46,998
questions leave them in the comments

1533
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:49,480
below all right and then I'll get back

1534
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:52,480
to them and uh I'll do another recorded

1535
01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:54,720
video sometime in the next couple days

1536
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,879
um and I'll continue to post my thoughts

1537
01:05:54,719 --> 01:05:59,238
in the telegram but I think I think I

1538
01:05:55,880 --> 01:06:01,359
laid out my sort of plans for the next

1539
01:05:59,239 --> 01:06:03,639
week or at least what I'm hunting for

1540
01:06:01,358 --> 01:06:06,399
and and kind of stalking um and if that

1541
01:06:03,639 --> 01:06:09,879
doesn't set up like if we you know now

1542
01:06:06,400 --> 01:06:14,480
that we have sort of and not we right so

1543
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:17,078
don't follow me uh into the fire but

1544
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:18,880
um those conditions laid out right so

1545
01:06:17,079 --> 01:06:21,838
that sort of thresholds laid out as well

1546
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:25,319
so prior significant pivots are you know

1547
01:06:21,838 --> 01:06:28,879
going back to August um using the half

1548
01:06:25,318 --> 01:06:30,358
of that weekly ATR as sort of a a limit

1549
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:31,759
those conditions laid out if the market

1550
01:06:30,358 --> 01:06:34,078
doesn't respect those and doesn't give

1551
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:36,1000
me what I want then that's it not even

1552
01:06:34,079 --> 01:06:40,479
going to bother with the uh the trade

1553
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:40,480
all right guys have a great evening