GLOBAL ECONOMY IS STABILIZING BUT WEAKNESS REMAINS

The World Economic Forum's September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook found that a majority of chief economists (54%) expect the condition of the global economy to remain unchanged over the next year while more than a third (37%) expect it to weaken. "There are reasons for cautious optimism such as an easing of inflation and evidence of the resilience of global commerce," the report notes. "Yet, if the economy is stabilizing, it is doing so at the weakest level in decades."

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According to a majority of the chief ecomornists surveyed, public debt burdens represent a threat to macroeconomic stability in both advanced 1(53%) and developing (64%) economies. The combination of elevated delt levels and high interest rates has pushed interest payments into economically damaging territory for many countries. Rising debt-se -servicing costs have led to a fiscal squeeze and a majority of respondest's note that in the year ahead current debt dynamics are going to undermine government efforts to boost growth and will leave countries poorly prepared for next economic downturn. "The difficult fiscal position that many countries ars is be difficult means they are likely to struggle to prepare for numerous structural changes that are under way, including the energy transition, demographic shifts sand evolving national security needs," the report r notes. Almost 40% of chief

economists expect defaults to rise in developing economies over the ne next year. Moreover, the report warns that the next major shock to hit the global economy could trigger a debt crisis that crystallizes the fiscal risks that have been building over many years.

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In the US, despite a protracted period of tight monetary policy and a disappointments, chief economists are recent string of labour market expecting a a soft landing. Almost nine out of 10 expect moderate or better growth this year and next. The upcoming election marks a political and economic inflection point For the US and the world. Eight out of 10 respondents agreed the election result will have a significant impact on economic policy globally.

The outlook for Europe is taking a turn for the better. Chief economists are modestly optimistic that conditions in Europe are set to improve, with almost twice as many (53%) expecting moderate or better growth in 2025 as in 2024 (29%).

The outlook remains strongest f for parts of Asia, South Asia is a clear stand-out performer with strong or very strong growth expected by seven out of 10 chief economists. Central Asia and East Asia and Pacific are not too far behind.

Global inflation is continuing its downward trajectory, but the pace of deceleration is easing. There is solid degree of confidence that the US has turned a corner on inflation, with the proportion of

respondents expecting high inflation dropping from 21% in 2024 to just 6% in 2025. Expectations are that inflation is headed in the desirable direction everywhere. In China, for example, the share of chief economists expecting very low inflation drops from 33% in 2024 to 16% in 2025 in the hope that the ongoing deflationary period will come to an end.

Monetary policy is thus turning a corner with an expected retum to loosening in the majority of countries and regions. In the US and in Europe, nine out of 10 chief economists expect looser monetary policy in the year ahead and a majority of chief economists expect looser monetary policy everywhere aside from Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

When asked about the prospects for a new growth agenda, responses of chief economists revealed a solid consensus on the importance of balancing growth with other policy priorities.

The main obstacles to achieving better balance are a lack of domestic political consensus or will (91%), and a lack of global collaboration (67%). Domestic political obstacles are viewed by the chief economists more as a challenge of leadership and trust than a matter of broad based opposition. The lack of global collaboration is in turn also undermined by domestic political trends (83%) but also strongly affected by geopolitical tensions (91%).

1. снижение инфляции

2. устойчивость мировой торговли

3. государственный долг

4. макроэкономическая стабильность

5. ослабить усилия правительств

6. экономический спад/кризис

7. демографические сдвиги

8. дефолт/неуплата/нарушение обязательств по платежам

9. спровоцировать долговой кризис

10. жесткая денежно-кредитная политика

11. плавное снижение курса валюты (экон.)

12. выйти из затруднительного или опасного положения (идиома)

13. программа экономического роста

14. глобальное сотрудничество

15. геополитическая напряженность