You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]



Bitcoin’s race to outrun the quantum computer - benmunster1
https://decrypt.co/8498/bitcoins-race-to-outrun-the-quantum-computer
======
krastanov
Just to be clear, this has barely anything to do with any crypto-currency
organization. It is a really regrettable framing for an event that should be
of great interest to anyone dealing with cryptography, not just the fairly
restricted group of crypto-currentcy enthusiasts.

If __scalable __quantum computers can be built (which seems probable, as we
are progressing fast in the number of qubits we can keep together), then
certain restricted types of public key encryption will be broken by quantum
hardware (all currently used public key encryption actually). We know other
public key encryption algorithms exist that can run on classical computers and
still not be broken by quantum computers. In many ways they are less tested
and less practical, so for a while NIST has been sponsoring the development of
such quantum-resistant running-on-classical-computers public-key algorithms.
The usual name for this is post-quantum encryption.

~~~
The_rationalist
> which seems probable, as we are progressing fast in the number of qubits we
> can keep together Probable? Ridiculous:

×there are still no hardware implementation of a single logic gate despite
what? 40 years of research? ×stability of qubits are pathetic. ×no software
stack (almost) ×Number of qubits are ridiculous and 40 years of research can't
even make a consensus on how much qubits are needed for beating a CPU on at
least _one_ task. Even if quantum _could_ (I strongly doubt that and quantum
speedup has never been shown empirically) reduce complexity on some
algorithms, the constant factor has no way to be handled with 50qbits, more
like 1000000 qbits at minimum. ×no sign of needed breakthrough in error
correcting codes.

I consider quantum speedup to be theoretically flawed, based on an
interpretation of quantum mechanics needing "parallel worlds" which
necessitate a misunderstanding of causality to make sense.

I consider quantum speedup to be flawed in practice too as order of magnitude
of order of magnitude progress is needed and the trend is: no progress or very
slow progress.

Thus quantum computing is like a vaporware, which take funds that would be far
better allocated at e.g medicine, AGI, or ASICS.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
While I agree that QC is far from cracking any encryption today or in the near
future; this

> theoretically flawed, based on an interpretation of quantum mechanics
> needing "parallel worlds"

is patently false. There is nothing in QC that would stop working under the
good ole' Copenhagen interpretation.

In fact, if there was even a theoretical possibility that a QC experiment
would work only in some QM interpretations, they would no longer be
interpretations, but falsifiable hypotheses.

~~~
im3w1l
Copenhagen postulates collapse, no? If collapses turn out to happen at
problematic times or because of problematic conditions, it could potentially
doom quantum computers.

In contrast, many worlds says basically: There is no collapse. Ever.

The fact that no one has found what triggers collapse yet is to me evidence
that Copenhagen is false.

Pilot wave theory on the other hand is, afaiu completely equivalent to many
worlds, but less philosophically convincing.

Where many worlds says there is only the wave function, pilot wave says there
is a wave function but also the material world. And material world is a sort
of "view" of the wave function. Continuously rederived from it. But the
interesting thing is, this material world has no causal consequences. All
causality stems from the wave function and its evolution. This is the
compromise to get same predictions as many worlds.

~~~
krastanov
Various interpretation postulate collapses under specific conditions, while
other formalisms postulate something mathematically/observationally equivalent
at mathematically/observationally equivalent conditions. In particular
"problematic collapses" are a thing all quantum computing researchers have to
deal with in their work. It is one of the largest subfields of this research
program actually (practical quantum error correction).

------
lixtra
> Take the Bitcoin blockchain: an unencrypted public key is sent along with
> every bitcoin transaction, and left unencrypted during the time it takes for
> the network to confirm the block, around ten minutes.

My understanding is that it remains unencrypted forever. That’s why it is a
public key. As long as the coins are not moved to another account that public
key stays a valuable target.

Edit: As DennisP pointed out my understanding was wrong and indeed only the
hash of the target is published until you make an transaction from an account.

~~~
RandomBacon
So then if Satoshi destroyed the private keys instead holding on to them just
in case for an event like this, it's possible that someone might take the
million or so BTC just sitting around?

Depending on how easy it is, all those addresses that were abandoned
containing 50 BTC are also up for grabs.

Would a coin without public addresses be better suited against such future?

~~~
DennisP
Not if Satoshi's coins have never moved. A bitcoin address is a hash of a
public key. The public key isn't revealed until the first time funds are
transferred out of that address.

~~~
esotericn
Nitpick: What you're calling "Satoshi's coins" were actually mined in
transactions to pubkeys rather than to pubkey hashes.

Early Bitcoin transactions did not use addresses.

Example from block 1:

[https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/0e3e2357e806b6cdb1f70b54c3...](https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/0e3e2357e806b6cdb1f70b54c3a3a17b6714ee1f0e68bebb44a74b1efd512098)

You'll see at the bottom that the opcode is a PUSH / CHECKSIG rather than the
later DUP / HASH160 / PUSH / EQUALVERIFY / CHECKSIG format.

So this isn't true. (blockchain.info derives an address but actually the
pubkeys are right there in plain sight. Have at it!)

~~~
DennisP
Thanks, I had no idea!

------
ddtaylor
It's worth mentioning that Bitcoin addresses aren't exposed on the blockchain
as public keys, but hashes of the public keys. If you want to steal the coins
you'll need to turn ripemd160(sha256(sha256(publicKey))) into a private key.
Good luck.

~~~
DennisP
Yes, but the public key is exposed when you send from that address. If a
quantum computer is quick enough, it could get your private key and issue its
own transaction, racing you to get into a block.

~~~
gruez
Cracking a public key in 10 minutes is much harder than cracking a public key
(at all). Considering we haven't cracked anything yet, I wouldn't be worried
about that. Also, if you're transferring thousands of bitcoin and want to be
safe, you could always privately send it to a miner rather than broadcasting
it. In that case the tx would have 1 confirmation before the the public knows
about it, requiring them to also pull off a 50% attack.

~~~
DennisP
A QC factors the current public key algorithms in constant time. More qubits
just means you can factor bigger keys. How big that constant is will depend on
how the QC works.

Sending privately to a miner would help, but you'd end up with a very
centralized system since you would want to send to the biggest miner, to
minimize the time until that miner produces a block. You can't have miners
sharing the transaction, even privately among themselves, since if they did
that then one of them could have a QC and you wouldn't have any way to know
who stole your money.

------
newbrict
Problem includes far more than bitcoin.. Your bank for example

~~~
zazagura
Not really. Your bank (and the whole web) can easily switch to a quantum
resistant encryption algo when time comes.

For Bitcoin this is much harder.

~~~
rolltiide
Its not much harder for bitcoin...

The community will just do a blockchain snapshot of balances at an agreed upon
block and start a new distributed ledger with quantum resistant encryption

Snapshots have been done hundreds of times

~~~
zazagura
Everybody will need new private keys.

What do you do with old coins? Satoshi's one for example? Or lost coins that
nobody has the key for?

Do you set a threshold day, after which all unclaimed coins are just marked
destroyed forever? If not, how do you know someone claiming some coins didn't
use a quantum computer to get the key?

~~~
gruez
>Do you set a threshold day

yeah pretty much.

>What do you do with old coins? Satoshi's one for example? Or lost coins that
nobody has the key for?

If those coins hasn't been touched for decades, despite widespread
announcements of pre-quantum cryptography (presumably it wouldn't happen
overnight), it's safe to say that nobody is going to claim them.

~~~
rolltiide
Dont treat any address differently

------
jeromebaek
_> Ah, but with the right quantum computer, able to process information at
speeds exponentially faster than today’s supercomputers? Suddenly, what seems
uncrackable becomes child’s play, able to be broken in under 10 minutes._

Cringe. Quantum computers are not "able to process information at speeds
exponentially faster than today's supercomputers". They're able to solve a
very specific subset of problems which are hard for classical computers. A
very specific subset, called BQP, mostly having to do with finding prime
factors. NP hard problems are probably uncrackable with quantum computers.

------
dnprock
I get that quantum computer can run faster with more states. But can someone
with quantum computing experience explain how quantum computer can address
exponential computation? Does it reduce exponential computation into
polynomial?

My answer to the above question is no. Assuming a quantum computer has 10
states. Its running time for exponential algorithms is still exponential. A
simple example: 2^10 is about 10^3. Still exponential.

------
bhouston
Will breaking classic computer public key encryption reveal any secrets that
were encoded prior to them being obsolete?

Should we be recording encrypted streams and saving them for a few years until
we can break them? Is there any value in that?

~~~
sroussey
What do you think the NSA is doing?

The public blockchains make all this more feasible since they have the
community keep the data around in original state for them!

So much cheaper than recording SSL/TLS traffic, for example.

Also that is why they would find it important to exfiltrate the data from a
company (or government) before it can be re-encrypted with something better.

------
johnwheeler
What a deceptive article.

They take a crypto conference happening at a prestigious institution and
sprinkle in some bitcoin punditry to make them seem related.

------
anm89
"The amount of time the universe itself has left—around 0.65 billion billion
years."

Is this true?? I've never heard this claimed before.

~~~
Mtinie
I’ve never seen it framed that way, but they may be referencing the estimated
timeframe for the “heat death” of the universe:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)

~~~
anm89
Yeah that was my assumption but I've never seen that specific time frame
proposed and it just seems like the kind of thing I would have heard of if it
was a know fact.

------
EGreg
This is a general problem with public keys, not just Bitcoin!!

One of the problems with current PKI is weakness in the face of quantum
computers, leading to a new crop of algorithms being submitted to NIST, etc.

I wanted to ask whether the following simple scheme, based just on
cryptographic hashes, can be used CONFIDENTLY, SECURELY and RELIABLY in many
situations where Assymetric Key cryptography is used today, and in many others
too, such as providing provably random polling etc. It is very similar to a
One Time Pad but uses a cryptographic hash function to generate the OTP codes.

Here is the scheme: Everyone generates a random private key K[p] and store it
just like any assymetric private key (encrypted with some non-stored derived
key).

They use any cryptographic hash function that hasn’t had a serious preimage
attack (perhaps even MD5?), hash it n (eg 10,000,000) times to get h[p][n],
and publicly commit to that number. This is like a public key.

The hashes are long enough that it’s infeasible to reverse them. Key
strengthening can be achieved by jumping a few onion layers between
transactions.

If you start running out then you post a new public key, signed with one of
your remaining onion layer codes. Any verifiers store the original public key
per participant, and then can replace them with the new public key if it was
properly signed by the old one, etc.

Use case: generating provably random numbers by mutually distrusting parties

Participants they gradually reveal their hashes, one onion layer per
transaction. Each provably random seed is a function of the alphabetically
smallest/largest three of those hashes at the next onion layer. If not all of
them reveal the hashes in time, they gossip, verify and agree on which ones
are the smallest/largest three before some cutoff point like “most reported
that most reported”. That leaves tons of bits of entropy coming from everyone!

Use case: Authenticator Apps

The hash h[p][n+1] would be a hash of some substring of h[p][n] with enough
bits that finding all chosen preimages (by an eavesdropper of the previous
code) would be infeasible in advance. Perhaps 10 alphanumeric characters is
enough. Also when displaying the code to enter, the authenticator app can tell
the user a number from 1-100 indicating to the verifier how many onion layers
to peel, making it harder to precompute the preimages. Or the user would have
to enter the entire hash via the network-connected computer scanning a QR
code, NFC or something. From a security standpoint, this method seems superior
to the HOTP and TOTP schemes used in authenticator apps today, since there is
no need to trust the verifier with any secret keys
([https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc4226.txt](https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc4226.txt))
Also there is no need to sychronize clocks, since the client simply lets the
server know how many times to run the hash, and increments that number every
time.

Use case: Signing Payloads

Participants reveal a payload and commit to an HMAC signature by using
cryptographic key at the next onion level, which at that point would be known
only to them. All these signatures are collected into a blockchain block /
merkle tree timestamp / similar thing, and it is sent to the participant
before they reveal the onion key they used to sign it.

Use case: Off the Record Messaging

The Blockchain or Merkle tree is private between a few parties only, so once
the next onion level is revealed, no participant can prove the payload was
generated by a given participant, since all the onion hashes were known, any
of them could generate a new valid tree with any payload history. They can
only prove it to each other, or given enough “witnesses” attest to that tree,
people might trust then on the basis of consensus of (presumably) mutually
distrusting parties, but that’s not the same thing as cryptographic proof. But
that is true of any OTR conversation.

Use case: Restoring Access

This can be used instead of Shamir Secret Key sharing. The server would have
to store keys for every participant, and M of N participants would just sign
that they approve authorization of some new session, some new key, or
whatever. These signatures could be easily checked by anyone who has the
public keys of the M participants who signed it.

Use case: Decrypting payloads

Not sure how one would do this one, to be honest. With PKI, someone could
encrypt a payload that can only be decrypted by a private key holder. I see
how to do signatures and HMAC, but not the other way.

------
jchanimal
Finally a good use-case for bitcoin: a bounty for the first quantum computer
to crack it.

~~~
travisoneill1
Not really. BTC has no value other than its ability to be exchanged for USD.
If BTC is cracked no one will trade their USD for it anymore and it will be
worthless.

~~~
rolltiide
The first person to assume custody of a large amount of bitcoin will sell and
be incredibly rich

They can siphon off a lot before other people catch on to people’s complaints
and realize the best practices were followed

------
rtempaccount1
Whilst Quantum computing is an interesting topic, gotta say I think bitcoin's
challenges are far more mundane and pressing that that.

No.1 challenge is how to stop centralized exchanges from extensive market
manipulation.

Decentralized crypto currencies are never going to achieve their goals, whilst
players like Bitfinex and Tether are in a position to "print" unlimited
amounts of money and use them to purchase coins like BTC.