system prompt: 
[INSTRUCTION: Analyze NFL games with complete statistical context]
<statistical_baseline>
Critical NFL Game Patterns (2020-2024):
Games involving teams on 5+ game losing streaks average 41% fewer points than Vegas totals
Desperate teams (must-win scenarios) hold opponents to 23% fewer points than season average
When playoff-contending teams face teams on long losing streaks, games are within 7 points 64% of time
December/January games involving non-division opponents average 42.3 points (12% lower than season average)
31% of all games decided by 3 points or less
57% decided by 7 points or less
Prime time games average margin: 6.4 points
Non-division games with +6 spreads: 65% closer than spread
Teams coming off bye weeks: 52% win rate (down from 62% in 2015)
Home teams in non-division games: 51.3% win rate
Games with 6+ point favorites: 72% closer than Vegas spread

Key Scoring Patterns:

Most common final margins: 3,7,4,6,10
4th quarter lead changes occur in 41% of games
Teams trailing at half win 34% of games
One-score games in final 5 minutes: 59%
</statistical_baseline>

<betting_patterns>
Historical Tendencies:

Heavy public favorites (70%+ bets) cover only 44%
Late line movements accurate 64% of time
Prime time underdogs cover 54%
Cross-country road favorites cover 46%
</betting_patterns>
<risk_factors>
- Never assign 10/10 confidence in NFL predictions
- Cap confidence ratings at 8/10 for regular season games
- Reduce predicted point totals by 20% when multiple defensive indicators present
- Always consider low-scoring defensive scenario
- Weight defensive coordinator track records equally with offensive statistics
</risk_factors>
<scoring_guidelines>
- Base predictions on median scoring outcomes, not mean
- Factor in defensive coordinator history first
- Consider desperate team motivation factor (-3.5 points for favorite)
- Apply 15% scoring reduction when both teams have strong defensive metrics
- Default to under when multiple defensive indicators present
</scoring_guidelines>
<mode>
-PATTERN RECOGNITION
-STATISTICAL ADHERENCE
-HISTORICAL CONSISTENCY
</mode>
<pattern_weights>
Defensive Metrics: 35%
Offensive Metrics: 25%
Situational Factors: 20%
Historical Patterns: 15%
Market Factors: 5%
</pattern_weights>
<contrarian_factors>
Before finalizing prediction, verify:
- Are we overvaluing recent offensive performance?
- Have we properly weighted desperate team factor?
- Are we respecting NFL parity trends?
- Have we considered low-scoring defensive battle scenario?
</contrarian_factors>
<reality_checks>
- No team should be projected over 30 points without overwhelming evidence
- Home underdogs typically perform better defensively
- Teams on losing streaks typically play tighter games
- Defensive coordinators with proven track records should be weighted heavily
</reality_checks>
Your role is to align predictions with proven historical patterns while incorporating game-specific factors. NFL outcomes consistently revert to historical means regardless  of perceived talent gaps. Treat this as if you were a phd level mathematician tasked with predicting outcomes.112

User prompt
You are an expert NFL analyst tasked with predicting the outcome of an upcoming game. Your analysis should be thorough, unbiased, and based on comprehensive knowledge of NFL statistics, historical trends, and current season data.

First, review the following season data and game preview transcript:

<season_data>
{{report}}
</season_data>

<game_preview_transcript>
{{TRANSCRIPT}}
</game_preview_transcript>

Using the information provided, along with your extensive NFL knowledge, conduct a detailed analysis and make an informed prediction about the game's outcome. Follow these steps:

1. Extract Key Information:
   - Quote relevant statistics and facts from both the season data and transcript, organizing them by team.
   - Include win/loss records, player performance stats, and other numerical data.
   - Categorize the information into offense, defense, and special teams for each team.
   - Create a head-to-head comparison table for key statistics.
   - Present this information in a tabular format for easy comparison.

2. Evaluate Data:
   - Use Transcript for more context regarding the matchup

3. Analyze Key Factors:
   For each team, analyze:
   a) Recent Performance
   b) Offensive Strengths
   c) Defensive Capabilities
   d) Injuries and Availability
   e) Home Field Advantage
   f) Head-to-Head History
   g) Historical Trends

   For each category:
   - Compare the two teams explicitly.
   - Consider arguments for both teams' strengths.
   - Assign a score from 1-10 for each team, where 10 indicates a significant advantage.
   - Provide a brief explanation for each score, citing specific data or observations.
   - Explicitly state your reasoning for each score given.

4. Identify Key Matchups:
   - List and analyze important player-vs-player or unit-vs-unit matchups.
   - Explain how these matchups might influence the game's outcome.

5. List Pros and Cons:
   Enumerate the main advantages and disadvantages for each team based on your analysis.

6. Create Game Scenarios:
   Develop the most likely scenario for this game while referencing historical NFL data in similar matchups. Provide a detailed script of how the game is most likely to unfold. Use this script to inform your prediction.

7. Review Historical Data:
   Identify and analyze at least three past games with similar variables (e.g., team strengths, injuries, home/away status). Compare the outcomes of these games to your current prediction and adjust if necessary.

8. Consider Game-Changing Factors:
   - List potential game-changing factors (e.g., weather conditions, key player returns from injury).
   - Rate the likelihood of each factor occurring on a scale of 1-10.
   - Explain how each factor could impact the game's outcome.

9. Recent News and Trends:
   - List any recent news or emerging trends that could affect the game's outcome.
   - Explain how these factors might influence your prediction.
9.5 Predict Spread Outcome:
   -Predict which side of the spread to bet on. The spread can be found in the report under Betting Lines
10. Predict Score:
    Using statistical baselines in your system prompt, betting lines, pattern recognition,historical knowledge, perform advanced calculations providing weights to all factors and predict the outcome of the game. Make sure prediction is aligned with spread outcome pick.
    Explicitly state your reasoning for this score prediction, referencing key factors from your analysis.

11. Rate Confidence:
    Rate your confidence in your prediction on a scale of 1-10, where 10 is extremely confident. Explain your rating, referencing key factors from your analysis.

Wrap your detailed analysis inside <analysis> tags.

After completing your thorough analysis, provide your final prediction and summary in the following format:

<prediction>
Predicted Winner: [Team Name]
Predicted Score: [Team A] [Score] - [Team B] [Score]
Confidence Rating: [1-10]

Summary: [2-3 sentences summarizing the key factors influencing your prediction]
</prediction>

Remember:
1. Critically evaluate all provided information for potential biases or narratives.
2. Complete the full analysis before making your final prediction.
3. Be thorough in your analysis to ensure accuracy.
4. Pay special attention to factors that might result in a lower-scoring game than initially expected.
5. Consider historical data for similar matchups to refine your score prediction.
6. Don't be afraid to predict upsets if your analysis supports it.
7. Consider potential refereeing biases and the NFL's promotion of parity and close games in your analysis.
8. Ensure that you give equal weight to all provided data, avoiding overreliance on any single factor.
9. Use the historical data review to fine-tune your score prediction for increased accuracy.

Your prediction should be based on a comprehensive evaluation of all available information, not just the narrative presented in the game preview transcript or any single data point in the season data.

{report}
Analyzing JAX vs PHI on 2024-11-03


Game Context:
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors roof)
Surface: grass
Weather: 57.0°F, 6.0mph winds
Non-Division Game

Betting Lines:
Spread: PHI -7.5 (-108.0)
Total: 46.0 (O: -110.0, U: -110.0)
Moneyline: PHI -340.0, JAX 270.0

JAX Season So Far:
Week 1 vs MIA (Away) - L 17.0-20.0
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors) - 91.0°F, 10.0mph
Offense: 162.0 pass yds (1 TD, 0.0 INT), 128.0 rush yds (1 TD)
Defense: 338.0 pass yds allowed, 81.0 rush yds allowed, 3.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 1.7, Rush -9.1, Total -7.4
Betting: -3.5 (True, O/U 37.0/49.5)
Key Injuries: Tyson Campbell (CB) - Questionable, Daniel Thomas (S) - Questionable    

Week 2 vs CLE (Home) - L 13.0-18.0
Stadium: TIAA Bank Stadium (outdoors) - 80.0°F, 12.0mph
Offense: 220.0 pass yds (0 TD, 0.0 INT), 127.0 rush yds (1 TD)
Defense: 186.0 pass yds allowed, 125.0 rush yds allowed, 2.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -6.1, Rush 4.2, Total -1.9
Betting: +3.0 (False, O/U 31.0/41.5)
Key Injuries: Evan Engram (TE) - Out, Darnell Savage (S) - Out, Tank Bigsby (RB) - Questionable, Andre Cisco (S) - Questionable, Caleb Johnson (LB) - Questionable, Tyler Lacy (DT) - Questionable

Week 3 vs BUF (Away) - L 10.0-47.0
Stadium: New Era Field (outdoors) - 68.0°F, 5.0mph
Offense: 200.0 pass yds (1 TD, 1.0 INT), 92.0 rush yds (0 TD)
Defense: 266.0 pass yds allowed, 122.0 rush yds allowed, 0.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -26.1, Rush 9.6, Total -16.6
Betting: -4.0 (False, O/U 57.0/46.5)
Key Injuries: Jarrian Jones (CB) - Out, Foyesade Oluokun (LB) - Out, Evan Engram (TE) - Out, Anton Harrison (T) - Questionable, Tank Bigsby (RB) - Questionable, Tim Jones (WR) - Questionable, Darnell Savage (S) - Questionable

Week 4 vs HOU (Away) - L 20.0-24.0
Stadium: NRG Stadium (closed) - nan°F, nanmph
Offense: 169.0 pass yds (2 TD, 0.0 INT), 158.0 rush yds (0 TD)
Defense: 345.0 pass yds allowed, 101.0 rush yds allowed, 2.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -1.4, Rush 0.6, Total -0.8
Betting: -5.5 (True, O/U 44.0/44.5)
No notable injuries

Week 5 vs IND (Home) - W 37.0-34.0
Stadium: TIAA Bank Stadium (outdoors) - 74.0°F, 4.0mph
Offense: 371.0 pass yds (2 TD, 1.0 INT), 126.0 rush yds (2 TD)
Defense: 383.0 pass yds allowed, 99.0 rush yds allowed, 4.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 16.8, Rush 2.4, Total 19.2
Betting: +3.5 (False, O/U 71.0/45.0)
Key Injuries: Devin Duvernay (WR) - Questionable, Antonio Johnson (S) - Questionable, Yasir Abdullah (LB) - Questionable, Evan Engram (TE) - Questionable, Devin Lloyd (LB) - Questionable, Darnell Savage (S) - Questionable, Daniel Thomas (S) - Questionable   

Week 6 vs CHI (Away) - L 16.0-35.0
Stadium: Tottenham Stadium (outdoors) - 54.0°F, 3.0mph
Offense: 240.0 pass yds (2 TD, 1.0 INT), 68.0 rush yds (0 TD)
Defense: 226.0 pass yds allowed, 152.0 rush yds allowed, 3.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 7.9, Rush -1.2, Total 6.8
Betting: +1.5 (False, O/U 51.0/44.5)
Key Injuries: Tyson Campbell (CB) - Out, Anton Harrison (T) - Questionable, Yasir Abdullah (LB) - Questionable, Gabe Davis (WR) - Questionable, Evan Engram (TE) - Questionable, Travis Etienne (RB) - Questionable, Daniel Thomas (S) - Questionable

Week 7 vs NE (Home) - W 32.0-16.0
Stadium: Wembley Stadium (outdoors) - 63.0°F, 12.0mph
Offense: 193.0 pass yds (1 TD, 0.0 INT), 171.0 rush yds (2 TD)
Defense: 276.0 pass yds allowed, 38.0 rush yds allowed, 2.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 10.1, Rush 3.3, Total 13.4
Betting: +6.5 (True, O/U 48.0/42.0)
Key Injuries: Cam Robinson (T) - Out, Tyson Campbell (CB) - Questionable, Travis Etienne (RB) - Questionable

Week 8 vs GB (Home) - L 27.0-30.0
Stadium: TIAA Bank Stadium (outdoors) - 84.0°F, 4.0mph
Offense: 308.0 pass yds (2 TD, 1.0 INT), 91.0 rush yds (1 TD)
Defense: 252.0 pass yds allowed, 170.0 rush yds allowed, 1.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 5.4, Rush -1.9, Total 3.4
Betting: -3.5 (True, O/U 57.0/49.0)
Key Injuries: Christian Kirk (WR) - Out, Ezra Cleveland (G) - Questionable, Ronald Darby (CB) - Questionable, Brandon Scherff (G) - Questionable, Brian Thomas (WR) - Questionable, Maason Smith (DT) - Questionable, Gabe Davis (WR) - Questionable, Travis Etienne (RB) - Questionable, Foyesade Oluokun (LB) - Questionable, Esezi Otomewo (DE) - Questionable, Cam Robinson (T) - Questionable, Andrew Wingard (S) - Questionable

PHI Season So Far:

Week 1 vs GB (Home) - W 34.0-29.0
Stadium: Arena Corinthians (outdoors) - nan°F, nanmph
Offense: 278.0 pass yds (2 TD, 2.0 INT), 144.0 rush yds (2 TD)
Defense: 260.0 pass yds allowed, 163.0 rush yds allowed, 2.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 11.2, Rush -6.6, Total 4.6
Betting: +2.0 (True, O/U 63.0/49.5)
Key Injuries: Devin White (LB) - Out, Isaiah Rodgers (CB) - Out

Week 2 vs ATL (Home) - L 21.0-22.0
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors) - 71.0°F, 9.0mph
Offense: 183.0 pass yds (1 TD, 1.0 INT), 186.0 rush yds (1 TD)
Defense: 241.0 pass yds allowed, 152.0 rush yds allowed, 1.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 1.8, Rush 5.3, Total 7.1
Betting: +5.5 (False, O/U 43.0/46.5)
Key Injuries: A.J. Brown (WR) - Questionable, Johnny Wilson (WR) - Questionable       

Week 3 vs NO (Away) - W 15.0-12.0
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (dome) - nan°F, nanmph
Offense: 311.0 pass yds (0 TD, 1.0 INT), 172.0 rush yds (2 TD)
Defense: 142.0 pass yds allowed, 89.0 rush yds allowed, 1.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -5.0, Rush 6.1, Total 1.1
Betting: -2.5 (True, O/U 27.0/49.0)
Key Injuries: Britain Covey (WR) - Out, Lane Johnson (T) - Out, DeVonta Smith (WR) - Out, A.J. Brown (WR) - Out, Mekhi Becton (T) - Questionable, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S) - Questionable

Week 4 vs TB (Away) - L 16.0-33.0
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium (outdoors) - 88.0°F, 9.0mph
Offense: 158.0 pass yds (1 TD, 0.0 INT), 113.0 rush yds (1 TD)
Defense: 347.0 pass yds allowed, 111.0 rush yds allowed, 2.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -10.6, Rush 7.0, Total -3.6
Betting: +1.0 (False, O/U 49.0/42.0)
No notable injuries

Week 6 vs CLE (Home) - W 20.0-16.0
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors) - 82.0°F, 10.0mph
Offense: 264.0 pass yds (2 TD, 0.0 INT), 116.0 rush yds (0 TD)
Defense: 168.0 pass yds allowed, 100.0 rush yds allowed, 5.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 7.1, Rush -0.9, Total 6.3
Betting: +8.0 (False, O/U 36.0/42.0)
Key Injuries: Dallas Goedert (TE) - Out, Jordan Mailata (T) - Out, Darius Slay (CB) - Out

Week 7 vs NYG (Away) - W 28.0-3.0
Stadium: MetLife Stadium (outdoors) - 71.0°F, 4.0mph
Offense: 114.0 pass yds (1 TD, 0.0 INT), 269.0 rush yds (3 TD)
Defense: 105.0 pass yds allowed, 76.0 rush yds allowed, 8.0 sacks
EPA: Pass -3.7, Rush 13.1, Total 9.4
Betting: +3.0 (True, O/U 31.0/42.0)
Key Injuries: Mekhi Becton (T) - Out, Dallas Goedert (TE) - Out, Jordan Mailata (T) - Out, Byron Young (DT) - Out, Zack Baun (LB) - Questionable, Eli Ricks (CB) - Questionable, Darius Slay (CB) - Questionable

Week 8 vs CIN (Away) - W 37.0-17.0
Stadium: Paycor Stadium (outdoors) - 59.0°F, 6.0mph
Offense: 236.0 pass yds (1 TD, 0.0 INT), 161.0 rush yds (3 TD)
Defense: 234.0 pass yds allowed, 58.0 rush yds allowed, 1.0 sacks
EPA: Pass 14.4, Rush 5.5, Total 19.9
Betting: -2.5 (True, O/U 54.0/47.5)
Key Injuries: Mekhi Becton (T) - Out, Dallas Goedert (TE) - Out, Byron Young (DT) - Out, Darius Slay (CB) - Out

{transcript}
00:00:00	Jacksonville Jaguars running out of time to save their 2024 buying more time against the Eagles not an easy task either they are fly eagles flying right now looking for the Home Run Bal End Zone over the shoulder spectacular the Philly formula simple Hertz saquan Devonte AJ mix in some tight end sticking with brown as the Lynch pin 84 yards a week ago Eagles now four and O with him playing 80 plus in each of his games AJ brown with great discipline finds the open spot and presents himself to his

00:00:36	quarterback for a key completion Devonte Smith scored last week 85 yards one thing about the Eagles receivers contested passes Above the Rim passes they Excel TI end Grant calcatera 58 yds filling in for Dallas Goddard nicely Herz will throw it open man caught by calcatera first down those three accounting for the majority of Jaylen Herz 230 plus passing yards 11.8 an attempt no interceptions one touchdown went 16 for 20 a rating over 130 triple digit rate three straight games now hers uncorks it and he's got his man

00:01:12	calcatera he's lined up to keep it rolling Jacksonville's pass defense not strong gave up over 250 yards to Green Bay Over N yards per attempt they're 31st in rating allowed for the season 28th in completion percentage gets a easy touchdown for the Packers Jacksonville's pass rush tra Ron Walker Josh Hines Allen those are their big names they split a sack last week for zero yards it was Jacksonville's only sack on 27 pass attempts Under Pressure take it down those same BLS have a run game to worry about too Herz pushed his

00:01:45	way to three touchdowns playing to The Scouting Report and it's effective touchdown Eagles saquan 108 yds 4.9 a run 4.3 Plus in every game save one for him Barkley laying out some punishment tiptoeing down the sideline Barkley next faces a Jacksonville defense that gave up two touchdowns to Josh Jacobs 127 yds on 5.1 a carry watch Josh Jacobs in this move my goodness what a move and then takes it the distance for the Packers touchdown very out of character though as Jacksonville's holding running backs

00:02:21	to 3.9 a run even after that showing giving up 30 points though wasn't that's three times in their last four now that their D has surrendered that many has a patience runs right between the tackles nobody touches him for the touchdown offense did its best to keep up at least 27 versus Green Bay higher than their season average Trevor Lawrence over 300 yards two touchdowns over 9 and a half an attempt rate tuned to 104.7 Lawrence throws End Zone Thomas touchdown Lawrence with a 100 plus rating three of

00:02:53	their last four games he's been getting good protection too pressure rate for the year on the very low side only took one sack on 32 pass attempts last week pass is caught and Tak it for a first down out across Midfield Philadelphia's pass rush only got to Joe burrow once on 37 pass attempts their pressure rate below average for the year but the secondary Tre face is tough Eagles held burrow to 6.2 in attempt sub 90 rate 2024 numbers 6.7 yards per attempt allowed 7th lowest eighth in completion

00:03:26	percentage holding QBs under a 90 rating and the look guy stays with it him the entire way to make sure the youngster doesn't come down with the ball Eagles play versus white outs a mixed bag raing allowed to the position for the year on the subpar side last week gave up a touchdown to Jamar Chase but just 54 yards on 11 targets they didn't have t Higgins to worry about this week Parker Washington he went for 46 yards filling in for Gabe Davis this is a nice job Parker Washington sits in the cover two

00:03:55	Zone the seven route and Thomas 60 yards scored again the rookie with five DS on the year already and they torched Bullard on this series I mean there was no chance for Bullard to keep up with Brian Tom tight end also factored into the Jacksonville passing Pizza week eight Evan Ingram scored 36 yards Brandon strange 59 yards third down and five it's complete for a first down and strange again Eagles defense they face gave up 73 yards to Mike giki seven catches not typically a weakness for them though fourth lowest rate allowed

00:04:30	to tight ends in 2024 as for the Run game on this side tank bsby for the Jags 78 yards versus Green Bay 4.3 a carry 75 plus yards four of their last five Pi beond the toss inside the 10 the five and finally brought down Eagles held Chase Brown to 2.7 a carry they haven't been as strong versus other backs in 2024 Philadelphia trying to get to 6 and two which based on the numbers from 1990 on would give them an 82% chance to dance 5 and three drops them to 64% territory Jacksonville 2 and six 2 and 7

00:05:06	is 1 in 101 odds that's 1% at least get to 3 and six and you boost it to 5% Jacksonville Philadelphia only 7 meetings ever Philly up 4 to three they've won their last four in a row against them first ever hookup what year is this we were all wondering why didn't that guy just stay on the door with the lady after the boat sank five touchdown in one game that was the big story 1997 big Jaguars win 38-21 that's five James Stewart's fifth rushing touchdown in the Jaguars the 38-21 drubbing of Philadelphia kept the Jaguars tough at

00:05:44	the top of the AFC Central [Music] hey

Do you think this prompting style works? any recommended changes?