You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


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The right saddle for me?

Hi guys I need some help figuring out what type of saddle would suit me the best.

I want to get my own saddle but I am having a hard time finding one that is comfortable for me. I am short (5'2") but I have longish legs with a really long thigh. I am looking for something for jumping and flat work, but mostly jumping and needs to be appropriate for high fences. I am usually a 16.5" inch seat but I am wondering if I need something bigger if my thigh is so long? I am not sure how this whole thing works. I am also looking for something with knee rolls and doesn't feel "bulky" underneath of me. Any suggestions? I am at a lost. Should I look for something with a more forward flap or just get a bigger seat? thanks for your help I am lost!

I'm similar to you, I'm 4'11" and have a longer thigh. What I finally found works for me is the 1E flap on the Antares. I have a 16.5" seat also, but mostly because 16" is harder to find. Of course now that I've finally found the one that worked well for me AND the horse that I was trying to fit (who was hard but not super oddly shaped) she has a new home and I need the money for a new horse since I haven't sold my pony yet, so I'm trying to sell it. I'm not really trying very hard though, I'm hoping to get a horse without having to do it, inevitably the other saddle I have won't fit the new horse and I will have to find another one anyway! The other saddle I have is a Berger (haven't been able to find a whole lot on the brand) but its German and very well made. I just bought it used at a tack swap for $160 and it's in great condition! We thought it had to be a 16 or 16.5 but when we measured it it was 17. It fits my leg perfectly also. I don't like that it's a 17" seat, it doesn't necessarily feel huge, but I know that it's way bigger than I need. I can get like a hand and a half behind me, but my sister said it doesn't look too bad, so as long as it doesn't look super huge than it's ok! I have found that most of the Beval saddles do not work for me. At least in the correct seat size. The newer Pessoa's seemed ok, but did not fit the horse. Older Pessoa's I think were ok also. Now when I'm looking for a saddle I'm looking for one where my knee hits somewhere around the middle to just slightly forward of the middle of the knee pad. I see so many people with their knees on the edge of the flap and I just can't ride like that. When I'm in a saddle like that my knee ends up moving in from of the flap and I start focusing more on that then riding.

yeah my budget would be 1000$ and under. I don't need anyting super fancy but I am def looking to buy something used that is well made. Wear and tear are fine. I, too, also like my knee to be on the knee pad middle. Not over the flap but somewhere in the middle. Bevals do not work me either! I actually HATE the way they fit and feel.

What I did with my daughter who is built somewhat like you is have her sit in as many different brands of saddles possible. We went to a AA show to watch and she sat in Antares, CWD, Devoucoux, Butet, etc. The reps were more than happy to measure her and tell us her specifications based on their brand. I was up front that I could not afford new and were looking for a used one. My budget was $2,000 and we finally settled first on a CWD with a 17" seat because it was a deep seat. Her current saddle is a Beval Butet at 16.5", also used, that she likes now because it is flatter with less bulk. I could not find a lower end, off the rack saddle that would work. I know spending more on a saddle may be difficult, but in the end, a properly fitted saddle will make a world of difference in your riding because you won't be fighting the saddle. Also the leather is better quality too.

I had a Collegiate briefly that was really comfortable and put my leg where I wanted it but for some reason when I was trotting it felt like I was fighting the saddle. The flaps on those also tend to be fairly long. This was 13" from stirrup bar down and that was the regular flap. Other than trotting in it it was great. I like the older ones. Those seem to work well for me also. Up here we don't have too many good tack stores to try saddles at. We have a couple nice used stores but they still don't have a decent selection in my size. The new tack store doesn't have much either and they are far enough away that I would have to pick a saddle up Sat, ride in it Sat and Sun and take it back Sun because their 3 day trial period won't work when I'm driving that far and trying to get there after work on a weekday! But I've done my fair share of shipping back and forth from Beval. And I'm in CA so it's pretty expensive when the saddle doesn't fit! About $85 last time!

The Crosby's always look like they have a straighter flap. And a longer flap. But I haven't actually tried one. I tried a couple of Toulouse saddles a few years ago and didn't care for either model I had. However the local tack store had a used Premia I think it was and I liked that one but the panel flocking (or whatever they use inside) were not even. Not that that is their fault, it may have been the horse. Otherwise I would have taken that one to try. I'm not a huge fan of movable blocks and all theirs have them. I just don't like the whole velcro thing. It bothers me for some reason. But the saddles look nice, haven't seen too many in person though.

I was told if you have a long thigh you need a forward flap or a bigger seat... I think you may just have to sit in a few things, but don't worry about the seat size, worry about the flap position. My daughter is 10 (just turned) and 4'7" and she sat in a PJ Degrange in a 16.5 and it did not swim on her. Then again she is riding in a Competition 16 and it's huge on her. So some brands do run smaller, and it makes a difference how flat the seat is as well.

I am almost 5'10 with a ridiculous amount of my height between my hip and my knee. I have an older (97) Pessoa that *almost* works for my leg but I have recently come to terms that the seat is just too small. I have an '07 Bates as well. The Bates has a good amount of pros - relatively comfy, the forward flap works for my leg as well as a non-custom is going to, incredibly durable, and I love the adjustable blocks. My only caveat is that it is not a saddle that makes you feel you are right on your horse (my Pessoa is much more close contact). If you can get over that, I think they are decent saddles for the money. The only time it really bothers me is when I am riding without stirrups.

yeah I think I am going to have to just sit in a bunch of saddles with different seat sizes and flap sizes in my price range and find what works for me! I am hoping to be able to get a good deal on something that is well made and comfy!

You might want to try Dover's Circuit Premier Special Eq - I'm much taller than you but like you all my height is in my thigh, and the fwd flap in a bigger seat works wonderfully for me, so you might be ok w/ either the fwd in your normal seat or a bigger size seat w/ normal flaps. It's a really nice saddle for the price!

yeah I think I am going to have to just sit in a bunch of saddles with different seat sizes and flap sizes in my price range and find what works for me! I am hoping to be able to get a good deal on something that is well made and comfy!

Basically, that.

That said, my advice would be to look for a combination of both: a moderately forward flap and a slightly larger seat size. Without knowing specifically what saddle you're looking at, it would be hard to advise further. Not only do saddles vary in the forwardness of their flaps, but they can vary in where the most forward part of the flap is located. For example, you might find a saddle with a fairly straight-flapped silhouette, but if it's cut more forward/bulgey toward the bottom of the flap it may still work for you. The schmancy French brands often call this an "AR" flap versus just a regular "A" forrward flap. Similarly, you can have two saddles in the same seat size and one may "ride" dramatically bigger than the other because of the length of the working center, the shape of the seat (U-shaped, vee shaped, somewhere in between), and where the balance point is located on the seat.

The good news is that finding something used, for less than $1000, with a moderately forward flap, that works well for a horseless rider, isn't really asking for the world. I could name 15 or 20 saddles that fitting that description. You shouldn't have too much trouble finding something. I would advise you to shunt off a portion of your budget for corrective padding, though, which will give you more options for getting your saddle to work for various horses.