You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


2013-10-17 16:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day2013-10-17 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2013-10-17 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?2013-10-17 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me thinks we got our breakout on the MCO's today2013-10-17 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2013-10-17 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and get started2013-10-17 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to the zero line on Tuesday2013-10-17 16:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO did indeed move to new highs today2013-10-17 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it settled today above minimally "overbought" with a +57 reading2013-10-17 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this surge higher pushed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM out of its ledge formation2013-10-17 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now seeing money moving in at an accelerated rate2013-10-17 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up 21 day chart2013-10-17 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the breadth of today's expansion2013-10-17 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have almost closed the gap resistance point in which we talked about on Wednesday2013-10-17 16:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor2013-10-17 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like that the declining tops line on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM intersects at around the +550 level2013-10-17 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we still have a ways to go before that important test2013-10-17 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now2013-10-17 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got the follow through that was needed by the buyers today2013-10-17 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our next goal is likely to be a test of the all time highs on the NYA at around the 10,300 level2013-10-17 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing to look for this weekend2013-10-17 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if prices settle at this levels on Friday2013-10-17 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have then fully met the upside price target of 9800 (or so) given by the breakout of the symmetrical triangle back in November of last year2013-10-17 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where in order to get higher price targets2013-10-17 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see these same declining tops line violated on the various MCSUM's2013-10-17 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite breadth MCO2013-10-17 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it had an important day today2013-10-17 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it not only broke to the upside 2013-10-17 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out the bear's last stand point in the MCO of the last September peak2013-10-17 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then cancels all downside targets given by this same MCO 2 weeks ago2013-10-17 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it we now have new upside targets to work with2013-10-17 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which looks to be about 500 or so points from today's close2013-10-17 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough2013-10-17 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: adding 500 points to today's close of 9934 puts us in around the all time highs in the NYA2013-10-17 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting added confirmation here of what to expect with this sequence2013-10-17 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will be added to our new blueprint moving forward2013-10-17 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here2013-10-17 16:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the accelerated declining tops line seen on the NYSE breadth MCSUM intersects at just below our last top seen in the structure2013-10-17 16:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break above this level will likely generate an important reaction in the price pattern2013-10-17 16:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we would be breaking above two areas of potential resistance2013-10-17 16:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...2013-10-17 16:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we draw a line between the May and September tops 2013-10-17 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we actually closed the day right at this longer term line of negative influence2013-10-17 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then sets up the potential of multiple day event for the bulls2013-10-17 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we first plow through the longer term line as soon as tomorrow2013-10-17 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and directly after that 2013-10-17 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the double challenge as outlined above2013-10-17 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all then2013-10-17 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next couple of days could show quite a bit of upside action2013-10-17 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the shorts begin to once again see the error of their emotional ways and forced to cover quickly2013-10-17 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others will have to make the decision to jump off the fence and finally join the party2013-10-17 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also took out its structural resistance points today2013-10-17 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled the day at the +30 level2013-10-17 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our snapback to zero already in place2013-10-17 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for further gains in this MCO2013-10-17 16:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means more money coming into the exchange2013-10-17 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2013-10-17 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't too surprising if we find ourselves at about the same levels where we see the recent double top 2013-10-17 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then some sort of pullback as a pause sometime early next week2013-10-17 16:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here2013-10-17 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any further strength in the NASDAQ breadth MCO will surely be enough to break above the declining tops line we see on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM2013-10-17 16:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it2013-10-17 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then see a move above the +400 level where we saw our last point of pattern resistance2013-10-17 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also moved above its textural resistance points today2013-10-17 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which confirms the new 13 year price highs in the NDX index2013-10-17 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that with this break to new highs in the MCO2013-10-17 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes likely that the +500 level on the NDX breadth MCSUM will become a very important support level moving forward2013-10-17 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for until we break below this level2013-10-17 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend will remain higher 2013-10-17 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the declining tops line here on the NDX breadth MCSUM comes in at around the +850 level2013-10-17 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have rather smooth sailing until we reach that target2013-10-17 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less any potential problems we might have at the +750 level2013-10-17 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price close in the SPX today2013-10-17 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I remember correctly2013-10-17 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upside target there that was given back in late August was around 18252013-10-17 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this new high now brings this target back to the table2013-10-17 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and before anyone says "no way"2013-10-17 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's good to know that we're only 92 points away from there now2013-10-17 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only 5% from here2013-10-17 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have already gained that much from the lows of earlier this month2013-10-17 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we didn't have a buy signal to go with it2013-10-17 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a reasonable expectation that with the buy signal that we shouldn't have that much of a problem getting there...and maybe just as quickly2013-10-17 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we have to be on guard of here is a panic situation2013-10-17 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the way the VIX has collapsed over the last several days2013-10-17 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see something like this occur2013-10-17 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as pretty much anything negative has now been tabled to at least the beginning of next year2013-10-17 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new recovery high close today in the OEX2013-10-17 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with decent trend strength supporting the breakout2013-10-17 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the declining tops line here on the OEX breadth MCSUM coming in at around the +500 level2013-10-17 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through on the Dow breadth MCO2013-10-17 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being that the Dow breadth MCSUM still remains under its zero line2013-10-17 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would help explain why this index is not confirming all of the other major market indices at new highs right now2013-10-17 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we see a break above the declining tops line on the Dow breadth MCSUM2013-10-17 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more importantly above the zero line2013-10-17 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow will continue to mask the strength of the broader market2013-10-17 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is always preferred when we're dealing with a price trend of either direction2013-10-17 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the generals should only come to the front once the troops have cleared the way2013-10-17 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close on the MID today2013-10-17 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was fully confirmed by the strength shown in the MID breadth MCO as it moved above its pattern resistance levels today2013-10-17 16:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move today also was enough to power the MID breadth MCSUM to above the +500 level2013-10-17 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND...2013-10-17 16:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke above the intermediate term declining tops line today with this effort2013-10-17 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the longer term declining tops line slicing through the +850 level2013-10-17 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a good day there2013-10-17 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still we have some unfinished business to deal with in about a week2013-10-17 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...if you haven't heard2013-10-17 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are releasing the jobs numbers on Tuesday, 10/222013-10-17 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which fits in nicely with all of the technical timing we've been discussing this evening2013-10-17 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it could provide a point of reversal after a two day acceleration2013-10-17 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OR2013-10-17 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could power higher on Friday2013-10-17 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pullback on Monday2013-10-17 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then move to higher highs on the data on Tuesday2013-10-17 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless2013-10-17 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll continue to take this day by day2013-10-17 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the markets bias of higher highs probable2013-10-17 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO also moved to higher highs today2013-10-17 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this took out all of its resistance points in the MCO2013-10-17 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also closed just above the +500 level today in the SML breadth MCSUM2013-10-17 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be preferred to see a continuation of what we saw today on Friday so that we can actually pull away from this area of natural MCSUM resistance2013-10-17 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new all time high close on the Wilshire 5000 today2013-10-17 16:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was confirmed by the upside break to new reaction highs in the TM breadth MCO2013-10-17 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-10-17 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a great day for the bulls as they have now fully wrestled control back from the bears2013-10-17 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be enough to move the market higher for the rest of the month2013-10-17 16:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the sectors2013-10-17 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLY breadth MCO also moved to new reaction highs today2013-10-17 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it settled today with a +42 reading2013-10-17 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not "overbought" at all2013-10-17 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will help to define the difference between a simple fishhook from that of a turn and go in the XLY breadth MCSUM2013-10-17 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice show of strength today in the XLP breadth MCO2013-10-17 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLP is again challenging its all time highs2013-10-17 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2013-10-17 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP price pattern looks a bit like the NYAD line right now2013-10-17 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of an ascending triangle formation2013-10-17 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where this patterns generally break out in the direction of rising support2013-10-17 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here2013-10-17 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the declining tops line here in the XLP breadth MCSUM seems to intersect at the zero line2013-10-17 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on this one2013-10-17 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe that's an all time high close in the XLE we have there2013-10-17 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is being confirmed by both the XLE breadth MCO by it making higher highs in this specific sequence2013-10-17 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly2013-10-17 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have had enough strength now in the last week to break above the declining tops line seen on the chart connecting the May, July and September highs2013-10-17 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this mean only one thing2013-10-17 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that money is expecting an expansion in the economy moving forward2013-10-17 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it2013-10-17 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cost of energy will increase with this continued expansion2013-10-17 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new recovery price highs in the XLF today2013-10-17 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is being confirmed by the internals2013-10-17 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with higher highs in the XLF breadth MCO2013-10-17 16:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh..and we did break above the declining tops line on the XLF breadth MCSUM as well2013-10-17 16:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a buy2013-10-17 16:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least the leader would be a buy2013-10-17 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder what it is..2013-10-17 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check DP2013-10-17 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...ETRADE2013-10-17 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MasterCard is now at $7002013-10-17 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow..too many to mention2013-10-17 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sector that would good to pour over this weekend2013-10-17 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the rest of the market was correcting2013-10-17 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the issues here have been on a nice steady stream of higher highs2013-10-17 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or you can just play the basket2013-10-17 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly2013-10-17 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the XLV2013-10-17 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as Obamacare was upheld in the budget2013-10-17 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, I guess, we'll have to see how the public accepts or rejects socialize medicine2013-10-17 16:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market though thinks it's great2013-10-17 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so who are we to argue?2013-10-17 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the XLB breadth MCO still remains under its resistance points 2013-10-17 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's nothing much there to work with 2013-10-17 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of the dollar collapsing today which pushed gold up $362013-10-17 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...every time I look at that sector I get the willies2013-10-17 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing there at all that suggests a bottom2013-10-17 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an accident waiting to happen2013-10-17 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and my fear here is day's like this are going to suck in anxious gold bugs2013-10-17 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they'll again get hit holding the bag2013-10-17 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully this time will be different and I can called wrong2013-10-17 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh2013-10-17 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold it folks2013-10-17 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm very sorry2013-10-17 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was looking at the XLI breadth MCO2013-10-17 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the XLB2013-10-17 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very sorry2013-10-17 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...2013-10-17 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to that one2013-10-17 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing different though from the first thought2013-10-17 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we haven't moved above pattern resistance as yet2013-10-17 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch that one as it will likely continue to play catch up given how the broader market is looking right now2013-10-17 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NOW...let's go to the XLB data2013-10-17 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're starting to see good strength come in here2013-10-17 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however2013-10-17 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have that reaction high point seen in mid September before we'll have any chance of being in the clear2013-10-17 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that said2013-10-17 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still don't have a good feel for the metals2013-10-17 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would definitely help if we see the XLB move to higher highs in the next couple of days2013-10-17 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to take a look and see which components are actually attracting money here2013-10-17 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too much action with the XLK as yet2013-10-17 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLK breadth MCSUM continues to attempt to hold at the +500 level2013-10-17 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there are better places to accumulate stock for now2013-10-17 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO looks to be tracing out a complex bullish pattern structure above its zero line2013-10-17 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price pattern itself2013-10-17 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we finally did break out of the symmetrical triangle today2013-10-17 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, as expected, the pattern took its time in doing so until the XLU breadth MCSUM got closer to its zero line2013-10-17 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the declining tops line there coming in at around the +100 level2013-10-17 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's check the daily volume on the breakout2013-10-17 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above average2013-10-17 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely to stick2013-10-17 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call this one a buy as well2013-10-17 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an upside target of....2013-10-17 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call it 422013-10-17 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so about a 10% gain2013-10-17 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current yield of 4%2013-10-17 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too bad for just hanging around2013-10-17 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-10-17 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're continuing to get internal strength in many of the sectors we cover2013-10-17 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Financials, Staples, and Utilities leading the charge for now2013-10-17 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed closely by Energy, Health Care and possibly Materials2013-10-17 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the Dow Industrials and XMI index2013-10-17 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the other major market indices closed at new highs today2013-10-17 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Dow Transports2013-10-17 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got good breadth confirmation with these close to new highs2013-10-17 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the volume side continued to lead here2013-10-17 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good volume strength in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's2013-10-17 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not so much with the NASDAQ volume MCO2013-10-17 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a bit troubling2013-10-17 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that breadth has already made a commitment here2013-10-17 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NDX volume MCO2013-10-17 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it's the top 100 issues that are being shun right now2013-10-17 17:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will need to change in the next couple of days2013-10-17 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we may have a down draft hit the market2013-10-17 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit of turbulence2013-10-17 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the good news there 2013-10-17 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we do get some sort of shake out2013-10-17 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCSUM's are high enough to fully absorb any damage that may come from such an event2013-10-17 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO is fine and confirming2013-10-17 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is the OEX and Dow2013-10-17 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a more muted day of bullish follow through with the MID volume MCO2013-10-17 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're only challenging the recent highs in the SML volume MCO2013-10-17 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why we want to see more commitment here is because index prices are more closely related to the ebb and flow of the volume MCO's2013-10-17 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to see it still fighting to move to reaction highs here is not in keeping in providing a stable price structure2013-10-17 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like having a ladder with one foot on solid concrete, but the other one on hard dirt2013-10-17 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will hold you up2013-10-17 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you may tip over if you're not careful2013-10-17 17:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we want to see better conviction come in here near term2013-10-17 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say by Tuesday at the latest2013-10-17 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the longevity of this current breakout may be shorter lived than what we may think2013-10-17 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event2013-10-17 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would allow for a snapback to our recent overhead resistance areas in attempt to right the ship2013-10-17 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should once again get the shorts all excited and again set another bottom2013-10-17 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic2013-10-17 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price top of short term duration in the next two trading days2013-10-17 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"2013-10-17 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO"s are pretty much neutral for now2013-10-17 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.092013-10-17 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 is neutral at .912013-10-17 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.282013-10-17 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now fully "oversold" at 1.122013-10-17 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.532013-10-17 17:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...is that correct?2013-10-17 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must be ETF related (?)2013-10-17 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to go with it2013-10-17 17:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.062013-10-17 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-10-17 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls had a statement day today2013-10-17 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and generally pushed the market to new highs 2013-10-17 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it2013-10-17 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had good confirmation of these highs2013-10-17 17:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the volume side2013-10-17 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we look like we're about to have a good old technical snapback to try to right the ship a bit2013-10-17 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and according to the CVI's2013-10-17 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pullback should start as soon as Monday2013-10-17 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the sectors...let's look at the volume McClellan's there for a moment2013-10-17 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice volume coming into the XLY2013-10-17 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leading breadth to the upside2013-10-17 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not as bad as we originally thought2013-10-17 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...2013-10-17 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLE is strong2013-10-17 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and good volume participation in the XLP and XLF2013-10-17 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV as well2013-10-17 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLI still looks like the ugly sister here2013-10-17 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together then2013-10-17 17:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that money continues to flow into more areas of growth than they do of value2013-10-17 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should change as we move along2013-10-17 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow2013-10-17 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the volume in the XLB!2013-10-17 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's another sector to look at 2013-10-17 17:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK looks lethargic to say the least2013-10-17 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU volume MCSUM is leading slightly to the upside2013-10-17 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both volume and breadth MCSUM's at around their zero lines2013-10-17 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would make a lot of sense since we are just breaking out of a triangle2013-10-17 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the apex is pretty much on scale of that being neutral...at a zero line2013-10-17 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we should re-examine the materials2013-10-17 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coal2013-10-17 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gas2013-10-17 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2013-10-17 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I saw some action in natural gas in the last couple of days2013-10-17 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check again2013-10-17 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know where I saw it2013-10-17 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll check it later2013-10-17 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: REITS are waking up2013-10-17 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a lot of homework this weekend2013-10-17 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2013-10-17 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the next couple of weeks we'll be back to Tuesday/Thursday sessions2013-10-17 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else2013-10-17 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off2013-10-17 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend2013-10-17 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are going on Tuesday2013-10-17 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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