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      Annual update on the global transition to electric vehicles: 2021
Prepared by Hongyang Cui and Dale Hall The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reviews the annual progress on the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), and this briefing is a 2021 update.1 The annual updates focus on market and policy progress made at the national and state levels, while city-level progress is highlighted in another annual ICCT publication—Global Electric Vehicle Capitals. 2 Electric vehicles in this briefing refer to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and do not include non-plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. We consider light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and do not examine two-wheelers, three-wheelers, or low-speed vehicles.3 ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS From analysis of the global EV sales data from EV-Volumes,4 the following six key trends are evident.
ACCELERATED GLOBAL TRANSITION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES In 2021, the global transition to EVs continued to accelerate. As is shown in Figure 1, global EV sales hit a record-high of 6.9 million in 2021, a 107% increase from 2020. It is the first time since 2012 that the global EV sales doubled in one year. Of the vehicles sold, 98% were LDVs and the other 2% were HDVs. By the end of 2021, cumulative global sales of EVs reached 18.6 million, a 58% increase from end of 2020. Of these vehicles, 95% were LDVs while HDVs accounted for 5%. In 2021, the global average EV share of new vehicle sales achieved an all-time high of 8.3%, compared to 4.2% in 2020. When only considering new LDV sales, the global average electric share reached 8.8%, twice the 2020 level.
CHINA’S LEADING ROLE IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT In 2021, China enhanced its leading role in EV deployment. Approximately 3.5 million EVs were sold in China in 2021, 150% higher than the 2020 level. As is shown in Figure 2, this represented 51% of the world’s total EV sales in 2021, compared to 42% in 2020. More specifically, 3.4 million electric LDVs and 0.1 million electric HDVs were sold in China in 2021, accounting for 50% and 92% of the world’s total, respectively. China is also the market with the most cumulative sales of EVs. By the end of 2021, cumulative sales of EVs in China reached 9.4 million, representing 50% of the global stock. Through 2021, 8.4 million electric LDVs and 1 million electric HDVs have been deployed in China, accounting for 48% and 97% of the cumulative global total, respectively. Europe as a single market closely followed China as the world’s second largest EV market.5 In 2021, 2.3 million EVs were sold in Europe, a 66% increase from 2020. This accounted for 34% of the global total, compared to 42% in 2020. Seven of the top ten national markets in terms of annual EV sales in 2021 were in Europe, including Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Norway, Italy, Sweden, and the Netherlands (Figure 3). The United States and South Korea ranked 3rd and 9th, respectively. The United States hit a record-high EV sales of 667,731, a 103% increase from 2020. South Korea also recorded all-time high EV sales of 115,137, 128% higher than 2020.
EUROPE’S LEADING ROLE IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE PENETRATION In 2021, Europe maintained its leading role in electric vehicle penetration. With annual sales of 2.3 million electric LDVs, Europe’s electric share of new LDV sales reached 17% in 2021, up from 10.2% in 2020. As is shown in Figure 4, Europe’s EV share was twice the global average and highest among all major vehicle markets in 2021. Furthermore, all 14 countries with the highest EV share of new LDV sales in 2021 are in Europe while China ranked 15th with an EV share of 13.3%. Norway continued to be the country with the highest electric vehicle penetration. In 2021, Norway’s EV share of new LDV sales reached 74.9%, followed by Iceland (66%), Sweden (40.9%), Denmark (30.9%), and Finland (27.4%). In the United States, the EV share of new LDV sales almost doubled in 2021, up from 2.3% in 2020 to 4.4% in 2021.
BEVS REPRESENT THE PRIMARY TECHNOLOGY PATHWAY In 2021, BEVs continued to represent the majority of global EV sales. Global electric LDV sales in 2021 were 71% BEV, 29% PHEV, and 0.2% FCEV, almost the same as in 2020. Figure 5 shows the BEV and PHEV shares of new electric LDV sales for the 15 countries with the largest electric LDV sales in 2021. North American countries had a BEV-to-EV ratio similar to the global average, including the United States (73%) and Canada (73%). Eastern Asian countries featured with an even higher BEV-to-EV ratio, including China (82%) and South Korea (83%). By contrast, BEV and PHEV sales were more balanced in Europe, where PHEVs accounted for 45.2% of electric LDV sales in 2021. All European countries on the top 15 list, except Norway, had a PHEV-to-EV ratio higher than the global average. PHEV-to-EV ratios were even higher than 50% and even became the predominant EV technology pathway in Italy (50%), Sweden (56%), Denmark (61%), Spain (62%), and Belgium (68%). The latest data analysis on the real world performance of PHEVs indicates that tailpipe emissions are two to four times higher than expected from type-approval values.6 The global electric HDV sales in 2021 were 96% BEV, 2% PHEV, and 2% FCEV, reflecting BEV’s role as the most commercially mature technology pathway in today’s electric HDV market
EARLY STAGE OF HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION In 2021, electrification of the heavy-duty sector was still in its early stage at the global scale. As is shown in Figure 6, global electric HDV sales decreased for four consecutive years after peaking in 2016. Though a 48% sales increase was achieved between 2020 and 2021, global electric HDV sales in 2021 were still 43% lower than their peak level in 2016. Over 90% of electric HDVs worldwide were sold in China, and no other countries have reached annual electric HDV sales of over 2,000. Germany and India were the only two countries surpassing the 1,000 mark, with electric HDV sales of 1,600 and 1,190, respectively, in 2021. The EV share of new global HDV sales reached a peak level of 2.7% in 2016 and have fluctuated between 1.5% and 2% in the following five years. In 2021, 1.9% of new HDV global sales were EVs
UNEVEN PROGRESS TOWARD ANNOUNCED VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION TARGETS Though many governments around the world have officially announced vehicle electrification targets,7 the progress made by 2021 towards these targets was uneven. Figure 7 compares the targeted EV or zero-emission vehicle (ZEV)8 share of new sales in select markets with their progress made by 2021; the targets apply to passenger cars, LDVs, or all road vehicles, depending on the country. China’s 2021 EV share of new vehicle sales of 13.3% is already close to its 2025 target of 20%, which indicates the feasibility for China to set more ambitious medium- to long-term targets. Norway, with a record-high ZEV share of 56.7%, is in a good position to achieve its 100% zero-emission LDV sales share goal in 2025. Denmark, with an EV share of 35.4% of new passenger car sales, and Iceland, with a ZEV share of 33.2%, are also relatively on track to meet their 2030 goals. The other markets shown in the figure, however, are still relatively far from achieving their announced goals and will need to make significant progress to meet their targets.
ELECTRIC VEHICLE POLICY DEVELOPMENTS From reviewing key policy developments on vehicle electrification globally in 2021, the following four key trends are evident. MORE AMBITIOUS VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION TARGETS In 2021, many new targets on vehicle electrification were announced by national and state governments around the world. New electrification targets for LDVs are summarized in Table 1 and targets for HDVs are summarized in Table 2, both in chronological order.
STREGTHENED VEHICLE REGULATIONS In 2021, leading EV markets took actions to tighten their vehicle CO2 emission standards or strengthen other relevant regulations to further accelerate the deployment of EVs. » In July 2021, the European Union released a proposal to revise its CO2 emission standards for new passenger cars and vans as a part of the “Fit for 55” package.9 Based on the proposal, fleet-wide CO2 emissions for new passenger cars and vans would be cut by 55% and 50%, respectively, in 2030 versus 2021 levels, compared with 37.5% and 31% in the existing stardards. From 2035, fleet-wide CO2 emissions for new LDVs would be 0 g/km, which translates to a 100% zero-emission share of new LDV sales. As of May 2022, the proposal is still under discussion among members of European Union.
In September 2021, California Air Resources Board (CARB) released a draft of the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation, as a part of California’s comprehensive strategy to achieve a zero-emission truck and bus fleet by 2045.10 The draft regulation focuses on drayage trucks, high priority fleets defined as those with over 50 trucks, and federal fleets, as well as state and local government fleets, and proposes zero-emission vehicle purchase percentage requirements. As of May 2022, CARB is still in the process of collecting public comments on the draft regulation via a series of public workshops. » In December 2021, the United States revised its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for light-dut vehicles for Model Years 2023–2026.11 Based on the projection of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the revised standards will bring about a fleet-wide CO2 emission reduction of around 8% per year from 2022 to 2026, compared with around 2% per year under the existing standards. The EPA also estimates that the tightened standards will lead to a 17% electric share of new LDV sales in 2026.
ADJUSTED INCENTIVE PROGRAMS In 2021, the United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Germany, France, and China modified their national EV incentive programs. The adjustments varied by market, with some extending existing programs, some increasing EV incentives, and others continuing to phase down EV incentives. » In March 2021, the United Kingdom reduced the maximum purchase subsidy for electric cars from GBP 3,000 to GBP 2,500.12 In December 2021, the United Kingdom further cut the maximum purchase subsidy by GBP 1,000.13 » In April 2021, Spain announced the third edition of its EV subsidy package, the MOVES III program.14 Electric passenger cars receive a maximum purchase subsidy of EUR 4,500 (EUR 7,000 with scrapping) from April 2021 to December 2023, compared to EUR 4,000 (EUR 5,500 with scrapping) under the previous program. In addition, electric vans receive a maximum purchase subsidy of EUR 7,000 (EUR 9,000 with scrapping) under MOVES III. » In April 2021, Sweden increased the maximum purchase subsidy for zero-emission cars from SEK 60,000 to SEK 70,000 and reduced the maximum purchase subsidy for plug-in hybrid cars from SEK 60,000 to SEK 45,000.15
In December 2021, the new government of Germany announced an extension of the EV purchase subsidies adopted in July 2020 as part of the COVID-19 recovery packages to the end of 2022.16 Consumers can receive a maximum purchase subsidy of EUR 9,000 for BEVs and EUR 6,750 for PHEVs. From 2023, the incentive program will be adjusted to be more oriented towards climate protection. » In December 2021, France released a decree to postpone its originally planned reduction of EV purchase subsidies.17 France reduced the maximum purchase subsidy from EUR 7,000 to EUR 6,000 on July 1, 2021 and planned to implement a further reduction of EUR 1,000 on January 1, 2022. However, based on the decree, the further reduction will not take into effect until July 1, 2022. » In December 2021, China released a policy document to adjust its EV purchase subsidies for 2022 and beyond.18 The 2022 purchase subsidies will be cut by 20% for public fleets and 30% for other vehicles, compared to 2021 levels. Starting from 2023, China will no longer provide purchase subsidies for EVs at the national level.

OPTIMIZED ENERGY REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGIES In 2021, California, China, the European Union, and the United States optimized their EV energy refueling infrastructure strategies through developing new regulations, laws, and pilot programs. » In July 2021, the European Union released a proposal to implement an Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), as a part of the “Fit for 55” package.19 One major revision is to turn the current directive into a regulation,20 which ensures that all EV charging requirements are legally binding and directly applicable in all EU Member States as soon as it comes into force.21 Based on the proposal, each EU Member State would be required to have at least 1 kilowatt (kW) of publicly accessible charging capacity for each battery electric LDV and 0.66 kW for each plug-in hybrid electric LDV registered. The proposal also sets minimum requirements for the rollout of charging stations and hydrogen refueling stations serving HDVs across the Trans-European Network for Transport (TEN-T) and related urban nodes in addition to overnight truck parking areas. By contrast, the current directive set a target of ten electric cars per charge point. » In July 2021, California released the Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment which set 2030 targets for charging infrastructure to fulfill California’s 100% ZEV goals.22 Based on the assessment, nearly 1.2 million chargers will be needed to support 8 million zero-emission LDVs and 157,000 chargers will be needed to support 1.2 million zero-emission HDVs in 2030. In November 2021, California approved a three-year USD 1.4 billion plan to support EV energy refueling infrastructure buildout.23 » In October 2021, China launched a two-year pilot program to promote the application of battery swapping technology, which is considered a complementary EV energy refueling solution to plug-in charging.24 Eleven cities were selected as the first batch of pilot cities: Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Hefei, Jinan, Yibin, Tangshan, and Baotou. The last three cities will focus only on heavy-duty truck applications while the others will demonstrate battery swapping on various types of vehicles. The Chinese central government aims to put at least 100,000 battery-swapping-capable EVs on the road and build at least 1,000 battery swapping stations through this pilot program. » In November 2021, the United States enacted the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which allocates USD 7.5 billion in new federal funding to build a national network of 500,00 EV chargers.25 The funding will cover chargers along highway corridors to facilitate long-distance travel and chargers within communities to provide convenient charging where people commonly park. In December 2021, the Biden administration released an EV Charging Action Plan, which outlines steps for federal agencies to take to implement the IIJA.26 CONCLUSION There was substantial progress made in the global transition to EVs in 2021, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Global EV sales hit a record-high of 6.9 million, a 107% increase from 2020. The global EV share of new vehicle sales also recorded an all-time high of 8.3%, compared with 4.2% in 2020. Many important EV policy developments also occurred in 2021, including more ambitious vehicle electrification targets, tightened vehicle regulations, adjusted incentive programs, and optimized energy refueling infrastructure strategies. With governments worldwide actively confronting global climate change, the global transition to EVs is expected to hit new milestones in 2022. The ICCT will continue tracking progress made in this crucial transition to electric.                                                                                                Ende der Quelle : Annual update on the global transition to electric vehicles: 2021                       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------