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Putin is pushing West Africa to the brink of war
Mark Almond
Fri, August 4, 2023 at 1:15 p.m. GMT-4·3 min read
Burkina Faso's Capt. Ibrahim Traore, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands before an official ceremony to welcome the leaders of delegations to the Russia Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia
Burkina Faso's Capt. Ibrahim Traore, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands before an official ceremony to welcome the leaders of delegations to the Russia Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia
West Africa is engulfed by a deepening crisis which far too many people in the West see as too remote, even irrelevant, to care. Our elites prefer instead to focus on yesterday’s controversies, like the fate of the Benin Bronzes, than the political and military chaos now unfolding there.

The coup in Niger should concentrate minds on the repercussions for the vast sub-Saharan Sahel region, from Senegal’s Atlantic coast as far as war-torn Sudan.

But don’t forget its wider implications. Regional instability has many local causes, but the cruel reality today is that Russia’s Wagner group and other Kremlin proxies have been playing an increasingly active role across the Sahel. Iran and China, too, are seeking opportunities to extend their influence in the region.

West Africa has become a major front in the competition between the West and authoritarian regimes. A complex multi-dimensional hybrid war is under way between local military juntas, openly backed by Russia, and our friends. It might be seen as an extension of the war in Ukraine – only in this case, we are ill prepared and liable to lose.

Vladimir Putin and various West African military rulers, such as Ibrahim Traoré, the charismatic 35-year-old leader of Burkina Faso, are now singing from the same hymn sheet. The irony does not seem to have dawned on the junta leaders that, while they claim to be standing up to Western colonialism, they are in fact promoting a new form of imperialism over their continent, strategised in the Kremlin and implemented by Wagner.

The Kremlin’s approach has been utterly ruthless: it provides barefaced support to those who usurp power and deny their people the right to choose their own governments. This is what Putin perversely calls “sovereign democracy” – regimes dependent on foreign mercenaries and subsidies. Meanwhile, Western minds have been focused on other matters.

But we won’t be able to ignore the situation for much longer, because the crunch is already here. The democratic West African states, led by Nigeria, are threatening to intervene in Niger if the country’s former president – himself a supporter of the West – is not released by the military leaders behind the coup. Nigeria’s chief of staff recently told a radio show: “We are ready, and as soon as we receive the order to intervene, we will do so.”

In response to this prospect, the Russia-supportive West African states, Burkina Fasco and Niger, have said it would be considered an act of war.

A direct clash between West Africa’s democracies and juntas would be disastrous. It could drag half a dozen or more states into a region-wide conflict, unlike anything the continent has seen in recent decades. Two of our key partners in Africa, Ghana and Nigeria, would face crippling challenges.

This is where slogans like “Global Britain” and “France in the Pacific” are put to the test. They will be less than hollow if London and Paris neglect the conflagration in their own “backyard”. We cannot play a serious role in the world if even our traditional interests cannot be protected.

Furthermore, the instability could trigger a new migration crisis. Life would become hell for tens of millions across several nations, pushing many of them to emigrate northwards to Europe. From Russia’s point of view, the subsequent destabilisation of European politics would be a further gain for Putin.

While it faces its own troubles with governance and corruption, Nigeria is much better for changing its presidents in elections than relying on occasional coups. It also supports our geo-strategic efforts, including through the Commonwealth. And it is now offering to take the lead, with our support, in responding to Russian actors in their region.

Who are we to decline such requests for support? There is no moral case for standing aside as a sinister mix of military despotism and regional chaos explodes across West Africa.

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