sum up:

Benjamin Netanyahu has long boasted of having Donald Trump’s ear. But as the US president tours the Middle East this week, it is not clear whether he is still listening.

On Monday, Hamas released an American-Israeli hostage from Gaza following negotiations that bypassed Netanyahu, who was only formally informed once they succeeded. “Thank you, President Trump,” Edan Alexander wrote on a whiteboard as he was helicoptered to hospital.

On Tuesday, Trump lifted sanctions on Syria, setting up a meeting the next day in Riyadh with its new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a man denounced by Israel as a dangerous jihadist. Trump called him “young, attractive. A fighter”.
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Donald Trump announces the lifting of sanctions on Syria during his visit to Saudi Arabia © Reuters

Trump had already split from Netanyahu on another front when he announced a truce on May 6 with Yemen’s Houthi militants, who had been targeting ships in Red Sea shipping lanes.

That left Israel battling the Houthis alone. Since then, the Houthis have fired three ballistic missiles at Israel, twice while Trump was in Saudi Arabia.

Hanging over it all was a larger rupture: Trump’s decision to pursue direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme, reducing Netanyahu to a spectator on the defining issue of his premiership, one over which he has already sparred with two US presidents.

“It certainly doesn’t look like Netanyahu has Trump’s ear right now — and if he has his ear, he doesn’t have Trump’s heart and mind,” said Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the US.

Trump’s tour is largely about American interests in the region, including economic gains. “Israel doesn’t have a trillion dollars to invest in the US,” said Oren. “The Saudis and the Qataris do.”

In the unpredictable patterns of Trump’s presidency, none of this may eventually matter. The US leader has repeatedly buoyed Netanyahu’s standing with political largesse, including an invitation to be the first foreign leader to visit him at the White House in his second term.

Trump still largely echoes Netanyahu’s language about Hamas, even backing the Israeli leader’s decision to block food from entering Gaza. And talks with Iran may fail, bringing Trump back into tune with Netanyahu.

But as Trump pursues transactional relationships with world leaders, Netanyahu has refused to give the US president one thing he has clearly sought: a swift end to the Gaza war, which could free as many as 20 living Israeli hostages from Hamas captivity, at least a few of whom would be likely to visit the White House to thank Trump in person.

“It’s not about the politics,” said a person who helped arrange a visit to Trump’s White House by hostages released in a previous ceasefire.

“Trump genuinely cares about the hostages, about their freedom.”

Trump headed to Doha on Wednesday to be feted by a monarchy that Netanyahu accused less than a fortnight ago of “playing both sides” in Gaza and refusing to take sides against “Hamas’s barbarism”. Asked en route whether his trip had sidelined Israel, Trump said it had not.

“This is good for Israel, having a relationship like I have with these countries; Middle Eastern countries, essentially all of them,” he said. “I think it’s very good for Israel.”
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American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander was released on Monday © Reuters

Netanyahu’s resistance to ending the war in Gaza has left Trump unable to further advance his signature foreign policy achievement from his first presidency, the Abraham Accords.

While the UAE and Bahrain normalised relations with Israel at his urging in 2020 under the accords, Saudi Arabia has held out, demanding at least a pathway to a Palestinian state.

In Riyadh, when Trump mentioned the Abraham Accords, the room fell silent, underscoring the unlikelihood of Saudi Arabia joining the accords until Netanyahu ends the Gaza war.

At the same time, by backing Trump’s decisions to pursue talks with Iran and ease tensions with Syria, the Gulf giants “can reinforce Trump’s vision of himself, as a peacemaker, someone who ends wars, and helps him realise his greatest vision — advance the Abraham Accords and win the Nobel Prize”, said Oren.

Although Trump will not visit Israel — a short hop away — on this trip, Netanyahu’s inner circle was “not in hysterics” over the apparent divisions, said a person familiar with the matter.

But “they don’t love it and they’re not happy”, the person admitted.

Others were less sanguine. Dudi Amsalem, a minister from the Netanyahu’s Likud party, told Israeli radio on Tuesday that the way the Alexander release deal was reached was “clearly incorrect, to the say the least. I expect the US administration to co-ordinate . . . this with the Israeli government.”

On the Houthi issue, he added: “It turns out [Trump] is unpredictable. He wakes up every morning on a different side.”

On his plane, Trump was gracious towards Israel but did not mention Netanyahu. Asked what credit Israel deserved for the release of the US hostage, he said, “I think they deserve a lot of credit, maybe the most.”

But, he added, “He wouldn’t be [free] if it weren’t for us — he wouldn’t be living right now. And we got Edan out.”

On Syria, Trump said he took advice from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has a lasting antipathy for Netanyahu, and had merely informed — rather than consulted — Israel.

“I mean, we told them we’re doing it,” Trump said, adding that Erdoğan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had “thought it was important to do”.

In private, a person familiar with US-Israel relations, said: “The pattern for Netanyahu has not been great, just in the last two weeks.”

“Trump has given Bibi a lot of room on the Gaza war,” the person said. “The question is how long will that last for?”

The gap between the pair on Iran holds the potential to be far wider. Trump has shown signs of considering a deal that allows Iran to retain some domestic nuclear capacity, including enrichment at civilian levels.

Netanyahu wants all of Tehran’s atomic work to be dismantled. In 2018 he convinced Trump to rip up a previous deal, arguing Iran was using its civilian programme as cover for weapons-grade enrichment.

In the latest round of talks in Muscat the US may have hardened its position, said a person familiar with the details, to be more in line with Israel’s view that Iran should not be allowed to enrich any nuclear material.

“It was made clear to the Iranians that this is a red line for the US. But will the US hold to this?

“I’m not sure. But it likely makes Bibi feel better.”