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If you look at historical planting data for soybeans in the US, the trends change dramatically after 1996 (see chart above). That makes sense because “Roundup Ready” herbicide tolerant soybeans were commercialized that year. Since 1999, the vast majority of soybean acres have been planted to this GMO trait and there are now about 20% more of them. These soybeans are very attractive to farmers because weed control is much easier and doesn’t involve the sort of plant injury that came with previous “selective herbicide” options. It makes it easier to farm “no-till” which conserves water and uses less fuel. But it wasn’t just soy planting that changed in 1996. More Corn Corn also became a GMO crop in 1996 with the launch of “Bt-Corn” which is resistant to the European Corn Borer, a serious pest in the Western Corn Belt. Farmers started planting more corn, particularly after 2003 , but the area gain was not as significant as with Soybeans. Glyphosate tolerant corn was added in 1998 and improved in 2003. The Price of Precaution But it wasn’t just the commercial GMO crops that saw a change. Spring wheat (used for high quality bread flour, pizzas etc) saw a dramatic loss of planting area, dropping a full 20% between 1995 and 1999. Much of this was switched to soybeans and later to corn. The spring wheat area has continued to decline and is now 40% below it’s peak. That might not have happened to this degree if two biotech traits were commercialized early in this century. Monsanto was developing a glyphosate herbicide tolerant wheat and Syngenta was developing wheat resistant to a disease call “Fusarium head blight.” These would certainly have helped keep spring wheat more attractive as an option for growers. But nervous customers in Europe and Japan put pressure on the North American wheat industry – threatening not to buy any North American wheat if any GMO wheat was commercialized. The wheat industry gave in and asked Monsanto and Syngenta to shelve their biotech wheat programs – something they now deeply regret. The wheat growers of the US, Canada and Australia have since agreed that they will do a simultaneous launch of any future biotech wheat so that the Europeans and Japanese cannot strong-arm them again. But any such advance has been delayed by 10 to 15 years. The GMO-pact countries are the producers of most of the wheat that goes to countries that can’t produce enough for their own needs (which includes Europe and Japan, but also the Middle East and many other areas rich and poor). Considering how global wheat production is failing to increase as rapidly as global demand, the “Precaution” leveraged by rich Europeans and Japanese has insured that this “Staff of Life” will become very expensive for the world’s poor. There Are More Forces at Work Than Technology In the “Pre-biotech Era” soybean prices were rising at a modest rate which didn’t keep up with inflation. The graph above shows that between