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Quelle: Recommendations for implementing the strategic initiative INDUSTRIE 4.0
Securing the future of German manufacturing industry Germany has one of the most competitive manufactur ing industries in the world. This is due to its ability to manage complex industrial processes where different tasks are performed by different partners in different geographical locations. It has been successfully em ploying information and communication technology (ICT) to do this for several decades – today, approxi mately 90 percent of all industrial manufacturing pro cesses are already supported by ICT. Over the past 30 years or so, the IT revolution has brought about a radical transformation of the world in which we live and work, with an impact comparable to that of mechanisation and electricity in the first and second Industrial Revolutions.1 The evolution of PCs into smart devices has been ac companied by a trend for more and more IT infrastruc ture and services to be provided through smart net works (cloud computing). In conjunction with ever greater miniaturisation and the unstoppable march of the Internet, this trend is ushering in a world where ubiquitous computing is becoming a reality. Powerful, autonomous microcomputers (embedded systems) are increasingly being wirelessly networked with each other and with the Internet. This is resulting in the convergence of the physical world and the virtual world (cyberspace) in the form of Cyber-Physical Sys tems (CPS). Following the introduction of the new In ternet protocol IPv62 in 2012, there are now sufficient addresses available to enable universal direct network ing of smart objects via the Internet. This means that for the first time ever it is now possible to network resources, information, objects and people to create the Internet of Things and Services. The ef fects of this phenomenon will also be felt by industry. In the realm of manufacturing, this technological evolu tion can be described as the fourth stage of industriali sation, or Industrie 4.03 (Fig. 1). Industrialisation began with the introduction of me chanical manufacturing equipment at the end of the 18th century, when machines like the mechanical loom revolutionised the way goods were made. This first in dustrial revolution was followed by a second one that began around the turn of the 20th century and involved electrically-powered mass production of goods based on the division of labour. This was in turn superseded by the third industrial revolution that started during the early 1970s and has continued right up to the present day. This third revolution employed electronics and in formation technology (IT) to achieve increased auto mation of manufacturing processes, as machines took over not only a substantial proportion of the “manual labour” but also some of the “brainwork”. Germany needs to draw on its strengths as the world’s leading manufacturing equipment supplier and in the field of embedded systems by harnessing the spread of the Internet of Things and Services into the manu facturing environment so that it can lead the way to wards the fourth stage of industrialisation. Rolling out Industrie 4.0 will not only strengthen Ger many’s competitive position but also drive solutions to both global challenges (e.g. resource and energy effi ciency) and national challenges (e.g. managing demo graphic change). However, it is crucial to consider technological innovations within their sociocultural context4 , since cultural and social changes are also major drivers of innovation in their own right. Demo graphic change, for example, has the potential to transform all the key areas of our society, such as the way that learning is organised, the nature of work and health as people live longer lives and the infrastruc ture of local communities. This will in turn have signifi cant implications for Germany’s productivity. By opti mising the relationship between technological and social innovation processes, we will be making an im portant contribution to the competitiveness and pro ductivity of the German economy.5 Using the Internet of Things and Services in manufacturing The Internet of Things and Services makes it possible to create networks incorporating the entire manufactur ing process that convert factories into a smart environ ment. Cyber-Physical Production Systems comprise smart machines, warehousing systems and production facilities that have been developed digitally and feature end-to-end ICT-based integration, from inbound logis tics to production, marketing, outbound logistics and service. This not only allows production to be config ured more flexibly but also taps into the opportunities offered by much more differentiated management and control processes. In addition to optimising existing IT-based processes, Industrie 4.0 will therefore also unlock the potential of even more differentiated tracking of both detailed pro cesses and overall effects at a global scale6 which it was previously impossible to record. It will also involve closer cooperation between business partners (e.g. suppliers and customers) and between employees, providing new opportunities for mutual benefit.7 As the world’s leading manufacturing equipment sup plier, Germany is uniquely well placed to tap into the potential of this new form of industrialisation.8 Germa ny’s global market leaders include numerous “hidden champions” who provide specialised solutions – 22 of Germany’s top 100 small and medium-sized enterpris es (SMEs) are machinery and plant manufacturers, with three of them featuring in the top ten.9 Indeed, many leading figures in the machinery and plant manufactur ing industry consider their main competitors to be do mestic ones.10 Machinery and plant also rank as one of Germany’s main exports alongside cars and chemi cals.11 Moreover, German machinery and plant manu facturers expect to maintain their leadership position in the future. 60% of them believe that their technological competitive advantage will increase over the next five years, while just under 40% hope to maintain their cur rent position.12 Nonetheless, global competition in the manufacturing engineering sector is becoming fiercer and fiercer. And it is not just competitors in Asia that pose a threat to German industry – the US is also tak ing measures to combat deindustrialisation through programmes to promote “advanced manufacturing”. Furthermore, manufacturing is becoming more dynamic and complex all the time. For example, advances in la ser sintering technology mean that it is now possible to “print” complex 3D structures to a high quality standard within a matter of hours. This is resulting in the emer gence of completely new business models and servic es where the end customer is much more closely in volved – customers can create their own designs and e-mail them to a “copyshop”, or they can have objects scanned and “copied”. On the initiative of the Industry-Science Research Alli ance, the partners in the Industrie 4.0 Platform have therefore set themselves the goal of implementing the German government’s strategic initiative to secure the competitiveness of German industry.
The Industrie 4.0 initiative has huge potential: • Meeting individual customer requirements Industrie 4.0 allows individual, customer-specific criteria to be included in the design, configuration, ordering, planning, manufacture and operation phases and enables last-minute changes to be incorporated. In Industrie 4.0 it is possible to manufacture one-off items and have very low production volumes (batch size of 1) whilst still making a profit. Flexibility CPS-based ad hoc networking enables dynamic configuration of different aspects of business processes, such as quality, time, risk, robustness, price and eco-friendliness. This facilitates continuous “trimming” of materials and supply chains. It also means that engineering processes can be made more agile, manufacturing processes can be changed, temporary shortages (e.g. due to supply issues) can be compensated for and huge increases in output can be achieved in a short space of time. • Optimised decision-taking In order to succeed in a global market, it is becom ing critical to be able to take the right decisions, often at very short notice. Industrie 4.0 provides end-to-end transparency in real time, allowing early verification of design decisions in the sphere of engineering and both more flexible responses to disruption and global optimisation across all of a company’s sites in the sphere of production. • Resource productivity and efficiency The overarching strategic goals for industrial manufacturing processes still apply to Industrie 4.0: delivering the highest possible output of products from a given volume of resources (resource produc tivity) and using the lowest possible amount of resources to deliver a particular output (resource efficiency). CPS allows manufacturing processes to be optimised on a case-by-case basis across the entire value network. Moreover, rather than having to stop production, systems can be continuously optimised during production in terms of their resource and energy consumption or reducing their emissions.14 • Creating value opportunities through new services Industrie 4.0 opens up new ways of creating value and new forms of employment, for example through downstream services. Smart algorithms can be applied to the large quantities of diverse data (big data) recorded by smart devices in order to provide innovative services. There are particu larly significant opportunities for SMEs and startups to develop B2B (business-to-business) services for Industrie 4.0. • Responding to demographic change in the workplace In conjunction with work organisation and compe tency development initiatives, interactive collabora tion between human beings and technological systems will provide businesses with new ways of turning demographic change to their advantage. In the face of the shortage of skilled labour and the growing diversity of the workforce (in terms of age, gender and cultural background), Industrie 4.0 will enable diverse and flexible career paths that will allow people to keep working and remain produc tive for longer. • Work-Life-Balance The more flexible work organisation models of companies that use CPS mean that they are well placed to meet the growing need of employees to strike a better balance between their work and their private lives and also between personal develop ment and continuing professional development. Smart assistance systems, for example, will provide new opportunities to organise work in a way that delivers a new standard of flexibility to meet companies’ requirements and the personal needs of employees. As the size of the workforce declines, this will give CPS companies a clear advantage when it comes to recruiting the best employees. • A high-wage economy that is still competitive Industrie 4.0’s dual strategy will allow Germany to develop its position as a leading supplier and also become the leading market for Industrie 4.0 solutions. However, Industrie 4.0 will not pose an exclusively technological or IT-related challenge to the relevant in dustries. The changing technology will also have far reaching organisational implications, providing an op portunity to develop new business and corporate models and facilitating greater employee engagement. Germany successfully implemented the third Industrial Revolution (“Industrie 3.0”) during the early 1980s by delivering more flexible automated manufacturing through the integration of Programmable Logic Con trollers (PLCs) into manufacturing technology whilst at the same time managing the impact on the workforce through an approach based on social partnership. Its strong industrial base, successful software industry and know-how in the field of semantic technologies15 mean that Germany is extremely well-placed to imple ment Industrie 4.0. It should be possible to overcome the current obstacles, such as technology acceptance issues or the limited pool of skilled workers on the la bour market. However, it will only be possible to secure the future of German industry if all the relevant stake holders work together to unlock the potential offered by the Internet of Things and Services for manufacturing industry. Since 2006, the German government has been pro moting the Internet of Things and Services16 under its High-Tech Strategy. Several technology programmes have also been successfully launched. The Industry Science Research Alliance is now progressing this ini tiative at a cross-sectoral level through the Industrie 4.0 project. The establishment of the Industrie 4.0 Platform with a Secretariat provided jointly by the professional associations BITKOM, VDMA and ZVEI was the logical next step in its implementation. The next task will be to produce R&D roadmaps for the key priority themes. Securing the future of German manufacturing in dustry – this is the goal that the partners in the Indus trie 4.0 Platform have set themselves. The Platform in vites all the relevant stakeholders to continue exploring the opportunities provided by Industrie 4.0 so that to gether we can help to ensure successful implementa tion of its revolutionary vision.

2 The vision: Industrie 4.0 as part of a smart, networked world In a “smart, networked world”, the Internet of Things and Services will make its presence felt in all of the key areas.1 This transformation is leading to the emergence of smart grids in the field of energy supply, sustainable mobility strategies (smart mobility, smart logistics) and smart health in the realm of healthcare. In the manufac turing environment, vertical networking, end-to-end en gineering and horizontal integration across the entire value network of increasingly smart products and sys tems is set to usher in the fourth stage of industrialisa tion – “Industrie 4.0”. Industrie 4.0 is focused on creating smart products, procedures and processes. Smart factories constitute a key feature of Industrie 4.0. Smart factories are capa ble of managing complexity, are less prone to disrup tion and are able to manufacture goods more efficiently. In the smart factory, human beings, machines and re sources communicate with each other as naturally as in a social network. Smart products know the details of how they were manufactured and how they are intend ed to be used. They actively support the manufacturing process, answering questions such as “when was I made?”, “which parameters should be used to process me?”, “where should I be delivered to?”, etc. Its inter faces with smart mobility, smart logistics and smart grids will make the smart factory a key component of tomorrow’s smart infrastructures. This will result in the transformation of conventional value chains and the emergence of new business models.2 Industrie 4.0 should therefore not be approached in isolation but should be seen as one of a number of key areas where action is needed. Consequently, Industrie 4.0 should be implemented in an interdisciplinary man ner and in close cooperation with the other key areas (see Fig. 2). 2.1 Shaping the vision of Industrie 4.0 Achieving the paradigm shift required to deliver Indus trie 4.0 is a long-term project and will involve a gradual process. Throughout this process, it will be key to en sure that the value of existing manufacturing systems is preserved. At the same time, it will be necessary to come up with migration strategies that deliver benefits from an early stage (see also Chapters 3 and 5.4). Nev ertheless, innovations constituting a quantum leap may arise in some individual sectors. If German industry is to survive and prosper, it will need to play an active role in shaping this fourth industrial revolution. It will be necessary to draw on the tradition al strengths of German industry and the German re search community: • Market leadership in machinery and plant manufacturing • A globally significant cluster of IT competencies • A leading innovator in embedded systems and automation engineering • A highly-skilled and highly-motivated workforce • Proximity to and in some cases close cooperation between suppliers and users • Outstanding research and training facilities In implementing Industrie 4.0, the aim is to create an optimal overall package by leveraging existing techno logical and economic potential through a systematic innovation process drawing on the skills, performance and know-how of Germany’s workforce. Industrie 4.0 will focus on the following overarching aspects: • Horizontal integration through value networks • End-to-end digital integration of engineering across the entire value chain • Vertical integration and networked manufacturing systems These aspects are considered in more detail in Chap ter 3 in the context of the dual strategy. 2.2 What will the future look like under Industrie 4.0? Industrie 4.0 will deliver greater flexibility and robust ness together with the highest quality standards in engineering, planning, manufacturing, operational and logistics processes. It will lead to the emergence of dynamic, real-time optimised, self-organising value chains that can be optimised based on a variety of criteria such as cost, availability and resource con sumption. This will require an appropriate regulatory framework as well as standardised interfaces and har monised business processes. The following aspects characterise the vision for In dustrie 4.0: • It will be characterised by a new level of socio technical interaction between all the actors and resources involved in manufacturing. This will revolve around networks of manufacturing resourc es (manufacturing machinery, robots, conveyor and warehousing systems and production facili ties) that are autonomous, capable of controlling themselves in response to different situations, self-configuring, knowledge-based, sensor equipped and spatially dispersed and that also incorporate the relevant planning and management systems. As a key component of this vision, smart factories will be embedded into inter-company value networks and will be characterised by end-to-end engineering that encompasses both the manufacturing process and the manufactured product, achieving seamless convergence of the digital and physical worlds. Smart factories will make the increasing complexity of manufacturing processes manageable for the people who work there and will ensure that production can be simultaneously attractive, sustainable in an urban environment and profitable. • The smart products in Industrie 4.0 are uniquely identifiable and may be located at all times. Even while they are being made, they will know the details of their own manufacturing process. This means that, in certain sectors, smart products will be able to control the individual stages of their production semi-autonomously. Moreover, it will be possible to ensure that finished goods know the parameters within which they can function opti mally and are able to recognise signs of wear and tear throughout their life cycle. This information can be pooled in order to optimise the smart factory in terms of logistics, deployment and maintenance and for integration with business management applications. • In the future under Industrie 4.0, it will be possible to incorporate individual customer- and product specific features into the design, configuration, ordering, planning, production, operation and recycling phases. It will even be possible to incor porate last-minute requests for changes immedi ately before or even during manufacturing and potentially also during operation. This will make it possible to manufacture one-off items and very small quantities of goods profitably. • Implementation of the Industrie 4.0 vision will enable employees to control, regulate and configure smart manufacturing resource networks and manufacturing steps based on situation- and context-sensitive targets. Employees will be freed up from having to perform routine tasks, enabling them to focus on creative, value-added activities. They will thus retain a key role, particularly in terms of quality assurance. At the same time, flexible working conditions will enable greater compatibility between their work and their personal needs. Implementation of the vision for Industrie 4.0 will require further expansion of the relevant network infrastructure and specification of network service quality through service level agreements. This will make it possible to meet the need for high band widths for data-intensive applications and for service providers to guarantee run times for time-critical applications. 2.3 Novel business opportunities and models Industrie 4.0 will lead to the development of new busi ness and partnership models that are far more geared towards meeting individual, last-minute customer re quirements. These models will also enable SMEs to use services and software systems that they are unable to afford under current licensing and business models. The new business models will provide solutions to is sues such as dynamic pricing that takes account of customers’ and competitors’ situations and issues re lating to the quality of service level agreements (SLAs) in a context characterised by networking and coopera tion between business partners. They will strive to en sure that the potential business benefits are shared fairly among all the stakeholders in the value chain, in cluding the new ones. Broader regulatory requirements such as cutting CO2 emissions (see Chapter 5.8) can and should be integrated into these business models so that they can be met collectively by the partners in the business networks (see Fig. 3). Industrie 4.0 use case scenarios relating e.g. to “net worked manufacturing”, “self-organising adaptive logis tics” and “customer-integrated engineering” will require business models that will primarily be implemented by what could be a highly dynamic network of businesses rather than by a single company. This will raise a num ber of questions regarding financing, development, reli ability, risk, liability and IP and know-how protection. As far as the organisation of the network and the qualified differentiation of its services is concerned, it will be cru cial to ensure that responsibilities are correctly as signed within the business network, backed up by the relevant binding documentation. Detailed monitoring of the business models in real time3 will also play a key role in documenting processing steps and system statuses to demonstrate that the contractual and regulatory conditions have been com  plied with. The individual steps of the business pro cesses will be tracked at all times, providing documen tary evidence of their completion (see also 5.7). In order to ensure efficient provision of individual services, it will be necessary to establish exactly what the rele vant service life cycle might look like, which promises can be guaranteed and which licence models and con ditions would allow new partners – especially SMEs – to join the business networks. In view of the above, it is likely that Industrie 4.0 will give rise to unpredictable global effects and a highly dynamic environment. The disruptive nature of new technologies and their impact on legal issues (e.g. with regard to technology, sensitive corporate data, liability, data protection, trade restrictions, use of cryptography, etc) can pose a threat to the enforceability of existing legislation. Short innovation cycles result in the need for constant updating of the regulatory framework and cause chronic failings in terms of enforcement. It will therefore be necessary to adopt a new approach whereby technologies are tested for their compatibility with the law both prior to and during their development (see Chapter 5.7). Another factor that is key to the suc cess of the Industrie 4.0 initiative is the topic of safety and security (see Chapter 5.4). Once again, a far more proactive approach will be required in this area. Fur thermore, it will be important to ensure that the concept of Security by Design is not simply confined to func tional components. 2.4 New social infrastructures in the workplace Industrie 4.0 will bring a number of innovations to a country that is in the throes of demographic change – Germany has the second oldest population in the world, after Japan, whilst the average age of the work force at many German manufacturing companies is in the mid-forties. The number of young employees is in constant decline and there is already a shortage of skilled labour and applicants for apprenticeships in cer tain professions. In order to ensure that demographic change does not occur at the expense of current living standards, it will be necessary for Germany to make better use of its existing labour market reserves for In dustrie 4.0 whilst at the same time maintaining and im proving the productivity of the workforce. It will be es pecially important to increase the proportion of older people and women in employment. The latest research indicates that individual productivity does not depend on a person’s age but is instead connected with the amount of time they have been in a particular position, the way that their work is organised and their working environment. If productivity is to be maintained and in creased over the course of longer working lives, it will therefore be necessary to coordinate and transform several different aspects of the workplace, including health management and work organisation, lifelong learning and career path models, team structures and knowledge management.4 This is a challenge that will have to be met not just by businesses but in particular also by the education system. Thus, it will not only be new technical, business and legal factors that determine Germany’s future competitive ness, it will also be the new social infrastructures in the Industrie 4.0 workplace that have the capacity to achieve far greater structural involvement of workers in the innovation process. An important role will also be played by the paradigm shift in human-technology and human-environment interaction brought about by Industrie 4.0, with novel forms of collaborative factory work that can be per formed outside of the factory in virtual, mobile work places. Employees will be supported in their work by smart assistance systems with multimodal, user-friend ly user interfaces. In addition to comprehensive training and CPD meas ures, work organisation and design models will be key to enabling a successful transition that is welcomed by the workforce. These models should combine a high degree of self-regulated autonomy with decentralised leadership and management approaches. Employees should have greater freedom to make their own deci sions, become more actively engaged and regulate their own workload. The socio-technical approach of the Industrie 4.0 initiative will unlock new potential for developing ur gently needed innovations, based on a greater aware ness of the importance of human work in the innovation process. 2.5 Novel service-based, real-time enabled CPS platforms The strategic initiative Industrie 4.0 will give rise to novel CPS platforms geared towards supporting collabora tive industrial business processes and the associated business networks for all aspects of smart factories and smart product life cycles. The services and applications provided by these plat forms will connect people, objects and systems to each other (see Fig. 4) and will possess the following features: • Flexibility provided by rapid and simple orchestra tion of services and applications, including CPS based software • Simple allocation and deployment of business processes along the lines of the App Stores model • Comprehensive, secure and reliable backup of the entire business process • Safety, security and reliability for everything from sensors to user interfaces • Support for mobile end devices • Support for collaborative manufacturing, service, analysis and forecasting processes in business networks. In the context of the business networks, there is a par ticular need for IT development work with regard to the orchestration of services and applications on shared CPS platforms, since this is where the specific requirements for horizontal and vertical integration of CPS, applications and services arise in industrial business processes (see also Chapter 5.1). For In dustrie 4.0, it is important to interpret the term ‘or chestration’ more broadly than is usually the case in the context of web services. It should explicitly include the setting up of shared services and applications in collaborative inter-company processes and business networks. Issues such as safety and security, confi dence, reliability, usage, operator model convergence, real-time analysis and forecasting will all need to be reviewed for the orchestration and subsequent effi  cient, reliable, safe and secure operation of collabora tive manufacturing and service processes as well as for the execution of dynamic business processes on CPS platforms. Among other things, this will involve addressing the challenges posed by the wide range of different data sources and end devices. The require ments referred to above are currently met in only a very rudimentary fashion by generic cloud infrastruc ture initiatives. Inter-company use of CPS platforms by IT, software and service providers and by the users themselves will require an Industrie 4.0 reference ar chitecture that will need to take account of the differ ent perspectives of the ICT and manufacturing indus tries (see Chapter 5.1). Modelled methods will be required to develop new applications and services for these CPS platforms, in order to manage the com plexity resulting from increasing functionality, customi sation, dynamism and cooperation between different disciplines and organisations (see Chapter 5.2). Availability of a secure and efficient network infrastruc ture with high bandwidths will be key to guaranteeing the necessary secure data exchange (see Chapter 5.3). 2.6 The road to Industrie 4.0 Implementing the vision of Industrie 4.0 will involve an evo lutionary process that will progress at different rates in in dividual companies and sectors. A survey on the “pros pects for Industrie 4.0” carried out at the beginning of the year by the professional associations BITKOM, VDMA and ZVEI confirmed the importance of this topic for the competitiveness of German industry and documented the need for fuller and more targeted information (see Fig. 5). Some 47 percent of the companies in the survey5 said that they were already actively engaged with Industrie 4.0. 18 percent of these companies said that they were in volved in research into Industrie 4.0, whilst 12 percent claimed that they were already putting it into practice. The three greatest challenges connected with imple menting the vision were identified as standardisation, work organisation and product availability. Alongside active involvement in working groups, other support measures requested by companies to aid them with implementation of Industrie 4.0 include targeted seminars where they can share experiences and regu lar newsletters. The professional associations will play an important role in ensuring a steady flow of communi cation, working closely with the social partners, the academic community and the public. Approximately 50 percent of the companies surveyed said that they had already received information about Industrie 4.0 through their professional associations. In addition to the above, the Working Group considers the following measures to be key to enabling a smooth transition to Industrie 4.0 for businesses: • Implementation of real-time enabled CPS solutions will place high demands on the availability of services and network infrastructure in terms of space, technical quality and reliability. In order to secure Germany’s competitiveness internationally, harmoni sation of services and business models through the introduction of the relevant international standards should be supported by policymakers both nationally and globally (see also Chapters 5.1 and 5.3). • Business processes in manufacturing are currently often still static and implemented through extremely inflexible software systems. However, they cannot simply be replaced overnight by service-oriented systems. It will be essential to integrate new technologies into older ones (or vice versa) – old systems will need to be upgraded with real-time enabled systems. • The rate of development of new business models for manufacturing in the Internet of Things and Services will approach the rate of development and dynamism of the Internet itself. • Employees will be involved at an early stage in the innovative socio-technical design of work organisa tion, CPD and technological development (see Chapter 5.5). • In order to achieve the transition to Industrie 4.0, it will be necessary for the ICT industry (that is accustomed to short innovation cycles) to work closely with machinery and plant manufacturers and mechatronic system suppliers (who tend to think in terms of much longer innovation cycles) in order to develop business models that are acceptable to all the partners. How does Germany compare with the rest of the world? Germany is not the only country to have identified the trend towards using the Internet of Things in manufactur ing (Industrial Internet1 ) and its disruptive impact on in dustrial processes as strategic challenges for manufac turing industry going forward. However, a variety of different terms are used around the world to describe the phenomenon of Industrie 4.0. Especially in the Eng lish-speaking world and at EU level, it is customary to refer to the Internet of Things and the trend towards digitalisation in terms of a third Industrial Revolution. This number is arrived at either by including the second In dustrial Revolution (the establishment of mechanical mass production) as part of the first,2 or not counting the third transformation of industry resulting from the auto mation of manufacturing processes as a genuine revolu tion in its own right.3,4 The terms “Smart Production”, “Smart Manufacturing” or “Smart Factory” are used in Europe, China and the US5 to refer specifically to digital networking of produc tion to create smart manufacturing systems, whereas the equally fashionable term “Advanced Manufactur ing” embraces a broader spectrum of modernisation trends in the manufacturing environment.6 As far as the global markets for machinery and plant manufacturing, electrical engineering, automation and ICT are concerned, the examples of selected countries serve to illustrate different policy responses to these trends. International market trends Following a period of spectacular growth between 2004 and 2008, when output rose by approximately 38 percent, the global financial crisis triggered a dra matic slump in orders and production among Germa ny’s machinery and plant manufacturers. However, business started to pick up again as early as the middle of 2009 as companies strove to make up the ground lost during the crisis. Demand has now returned to normal, with two percent growth forecast for 2013. According to a recent survey by the German Engineer ing Federation (VDMA), the majority of German me chanical engineering firms still see themselves as among the world’s leaders and regard their main com petitors as domestic ones, followed only distantly by competitors from the US and Italy. Global sales in the mechanical engineering sector came to around 2.1 tril lion euros in 2011. A glance at the position of the me chanical engineering industry in selected countries re veals an extremely heterogeneous picture. (see also Fig. 13). Since 2002, large-scale transfers of production to other parts of the world have resulted in a sharp in crease in the US mechanical engineering sector’s de pendency on imports. The number of people employed in the industry fell by 25 percent between 2002 and 2010.8 However, there have been some signs of a gradual recovery since 2010, with rises in both do mestic and export demand. The press in the US has been quick to seize on terms such as “reshoring”9 and “insourcing boom”10 to describe what it already per ceives as a fundamental sea change. China is also devoting a huge amount of effort to catch ing up with other countries in terms of its mechanical engineering technology and strengthening its market po sition. Over the past five years, it has risen to become the world’s largest machinery manufacturer, with sales of 563 billion euros in 2011. At the same time, China has also redoubled its efforts on the exports front. In 2011, the Chinese investment goods industry exported goods worth 87.7 billion euros, an increase of more than 20 percent compared to the previous year. It thus leapt for ward to become the world’s fourth largest exporter of machinery, with a 10.2 percent share of the market. There has been a pronounced rise in Russia’s demand for machinery and plant since 2010. Russia, which is the official partner country of this year’s Hannover trade fair, is already the fourth largest export market. for German mechanical engineering firms, behind Chi na, the US and France. Germany is also Russia’s number one machinery supplier, with a 22.6 percent market share. The Russian government is forecasting continued growth of the Russian market over the next few years and is supporting this growth through a funding programme worth billions of euros. In the longer term, there is significant potential for German machinery and plant manufacturers to export Industrie 4.0 products to Russia. In 2011, the global electrical engineering market was worth 3,414 billion euros. At 116 billion euros, the Ger man electrical engineering market is the fifth largest in the world, after China (1,119 billion euros), the US (486 billion euros), Japan (284 billion euros) and South Korea (155 billion euros). In recent years, the growth of the global electrical engineering market has largely been due to newly-industrialised countries whose total market volume of 1.7 trillion euros reached the same level as that of the industrialised nations for the first time in 2011. It is expected that growth will remain signifi cantly higher in the newly-industrialised countries than in the industrialised nations during 2012 and 2013. The global automation market recently reached 350 billion euros, meaning that it now accounts for more than one tenth of the global electrical engineering mar ket. In the past few years, China has risen to become the single largest regional market. Its market is current ly worth 100 billion euros, giving it a 29 percent share of the global market and meaning that it has now over taken Europe, where the market is worth just 93 billion euros. Trailing some way behind these two markets are the US (12 percent or 40 billion euros) and Japan (8 percent or 26 billion euros). At 21 billion euros (6 per cent), Germany is the world’s fourth largest market. China’s lead is even greater when it comes to automa tion product manufacturing. China accounts for 30 percent of global production, or 103 billion euros out of a total of 350 billion euros. The US and Japan are more or less tied for second place with roughly eleven per cent each, closely followed by Germany, with ten per cent. However, Germany is the world’s largest exporter of automation products and systems (29 billion euros), followed by China (27 billion euros) and the US (21 billion euros). The global turnover of the ICT industry is forecast to rise by 4.6 percent this year to 2.69 trillion euros. At 5.2 and 4.2 percent respectively, the two key segments of information technology and telecommunications are both experiencing strong growth. However, there are significant disparities in market trends across different regions. Whilst the industry is booming in newly-indus trialised countries, throughout most of Western Europe it is either flat or in decline. Between them, China, India and Russia already account for one seventh (14 per cent) of global ICT demand this year. The Chinese mar ket alone is forecast to grow by 6.6 percent to 235 billion euros in 2013, overtaking Japan (221 billion eu ros) as the world’s second largest ICT market. The US market remains the undisputed leader in terms of de mand for ICT. The latest figures put its total value at 725 billion euros, an increase of 5.8 percent. Growth in western Europe has been more sluggish than in the rest of the world. In 2013, ICT sales are expected to rise by a modest 1.3 percent to 625 billion euros. The German information technology market, on the other hand, is forecast to grow by 3.0 percent in 2013 to 75 billion euros. Germany’s software market is also set to experience strong growth, rising by 5.1 percent to 17.8 billion euros. The market for IT services such as out sourcing and maintenance is forecast to grow by 3.0 percent to 35.9 billion euros, whilst the hardware mar ket is expected to return a modest growth figure of 1.2 percent. With SAP, Software AG and Telekom, together with major subsidiaries of US (e.g. IBM and HP) and Asian companies, Germany has a globally significant level of IT competencies clustered closely together. This pro vides a new opportunity for Germany to take a leading role in Industrie 4.0. Industrial policy funding initiatives in selected countries Other countries are also supporting the modernisation of manufacturing industry through funding programmes and research initiatives. However, the available informa tion suggests that in the US and China, for example, the transformation envisaged by the Industrie 4.0 initia tive is regarded as no more than one trend among many, for example the introduction of new materials and technologies.
Ende der Quelle: Recommendations for implementing the strategic initiative INDUSTRIE 4.0