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1
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hey what's going on guys it's a little

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late in the day I uh said I want to get

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this video out so here we are getting it

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out before the end of the night and uh

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this is going to cover I I was planning

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on doing a longer video but I don't know

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if I hav ited me to do a longer video so

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I just want to put the short video out

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and then I'll expand on this over the

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week and we have some time left into the

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end of the month so um hopefully you

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guys will understand sort of the method

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that uh I'm applying going into October

14
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and my idea around train alts and um how

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I'm going to be positioning so this is

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with respect to the idea that a strong

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September a strong monthly turnaround

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Strong high time frame turnaround uh is

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likely to have some inertia to it and

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off of a strong September my expectation

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is that you have a strong October as

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well now no guarantee whether or not

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October's returns are greater than

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September's you know a lot of these alts

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are up significantly uh but my

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expectation is that we'll see positive

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returns in October for the months rather

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in the pairs that had strong septembers

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um and again I I posted about this on

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Twitter it said you know Big Ships turn

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slowly and basically the idea is that

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when they turn and when they begin to

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pick up steam again it's it's difficult

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to get them to just about face and and

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continue on their original path the

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original path in this case for alt has

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been you know a multi quarter M you know

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multi-month multi- quarter downtrends um

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it's been a really long time now since

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uh alt where we at their all-time highs

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so the idea behind this trade is that

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there's I don't think there's a lot of

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like idiosyncratic reasons to be long

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alts um or read honestly maybe to be

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long crypto as a whole yet I think

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crypto is one of those things where it's

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just like slowly builds up momentum over

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time and starts breaking levels you know

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this could be just based on people uh

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that have been in this market

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redeploying and then once much higher

52
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prices come that's when we start to see

53
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you know some of the more idiosyncratic

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narratives take footing and and capture

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attention but this trade right now is

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it's based on the idea that there have

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been some really strong plays this month

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um that there is all sort of this this

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is sort of all rather I should say one

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trade taking place um and you could kind

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of if you want you could call it high

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time frame meor version you know the

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markets have been moving down for quite

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some time now alts have taken a beating

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you a lot of vaults are over 80% off

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their alltime highs you know approaching

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their alltime lows you know their

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original ranges before they put in their

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moves through through 2023 and um into

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the beginning of the year so if anything

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some of these are just they're just mean

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reversion trades uh and I've talked

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about this in the past where an ALT

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might um be absolutely the bed

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and and be Vapor but there's a lot of

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times when you'll see even after a a

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draw down of almost you you know 90 plus

78
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95 99% those alls can bounce up and

79
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cover sort of half of that move and it

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doesn't even have to be for a

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significant reason right it could just

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for people all paying attention to it

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again shorts coming off you know being

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relatively easier to move up at this

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point because you've taken out a lot of

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the long positioning you know it it

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becomes a um a pretty self-fulfilling

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trait so I have a watch list that I'm

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looking at a lot of the it's pretty

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basic I mean a lot of these are popular

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pairs or good pairs they've done well

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for the month uh some of them are part

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of you know what I think or anticipate

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to be uh narratives that will be strong

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moving forward and it's kind of just the

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the same old same old right I don't

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think that the participants in this

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market have changed I think until you

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have some major turnover in participants

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you could expect that their interest

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will remain the same so you know it

102
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looks like um for me I mean it looks

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like memes and and Ai and if anything

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maybe memes are are going to get I don't

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know maybe memes I maybe it's it's

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hopeful or wishful thinking I think

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maybe memes will begin to fall out of

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favor as this Market matures over time I

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don't think you know uh institutional

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capital is going to want to be deploying

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in memes as much as they will want to be

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deploying in things that have a little

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bit more substance to them but anyway

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that's like my personal opinion coming

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through and if prices continue to rip up

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like that doesn't mean anything um as

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far as like memes continue to outperform

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so with regard to uh the alt so you can

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see that have this watch list right here

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um a lot of these alts like not for

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nothing you know some of these alts I I

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think are a little bit sketchy like I've

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talked about Celestia in the past

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Celestia is looking at a significant

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unlock um there is something to be said

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for creating higher prices before an

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unlock for early investors you know

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those early investors will will um hedge

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into that

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um and this is something you have to be

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mindful of like I think that uh

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Celestia on after an unlock you know if

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you have some kind of backside setup

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where there's a breakdown I think you

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know it definitely something you want to

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at least take off leverage exposure or

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you know potentially even see a short

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setup within um but a lot of these alts

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are you know we've seen a good amount of

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positioning come in behind them and I

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don't think like we're in Free Ride

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territory yet I think if Bitcoin is

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above 65 it's a little bit more clear

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you know if we have a a change in Market

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structure with BTC and Bitcoin hasn't

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been able to do anything anything

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different it's it's very close to making

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a at least locally a new high but for

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all intents and purposes you know it's

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been a series of lower lower highs and

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lower lows all the way to this point um

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this is like the first time where it

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kind of looks like if you know at least

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if we start grinding back up towards you

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know today's highs yesterday's highs is

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sort of like three days within balance

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um three days in relatively the same

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range I should say it's not necessarily

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like their balanced days uh then it

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would be maybe a a candidate for sort of

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hugging that resistance level grinding

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against that level and then at that

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point maybe it's one it's an instance

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where maybe betting on Resistance

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breaking and being a part of that break

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a little early might make sense but as

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it stands right now like resistance is

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doing its job and I think that if BTC

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were to break down and to test lower and

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test below 62 you know break below 63

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convincingly again I don't know how

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strong alt would remain in the face of

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that so I think you have to be mindful

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of that um Bitcoin does I think still

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rule the r Ro and when Bitcoin looks

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relatively stable like alts have sort of

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permission to to outperform uh now mind

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you I my point about the high time frame

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chart is that this is the time when I do

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think that you know if the market is

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going green on the monthly and sort of

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the highest time frame charts you could

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think of and that momentum to the

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downside has shifted there is something

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to be said for Bitcoin pulling back even

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and alts not necessarily pulling back

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and that's a sign that I think you

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really want to pay attention to when you

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do have those alts where you know let's

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say Bitcoin pulls back to 62 61 even

191
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deeper than that and if you have alts

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that are have been outperforming and

193
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they are still holding their levels and

194
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they're above prior resistance now turn

195
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support and they have less downside

196
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capture than BTC I mean that's as good

197
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of a signal as you're going to get um

198
00:07:16,959 --> 00:07:21,079
but as far as the individual alts I mean

199
00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:24,279
you're looking at this right here it's

200
00:07:21,079 --> 00:07:26,119
salana Pepe whiff so we have a meme on

201
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ethereum we have a meme on salana we

202
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have fet ai we have near um world coin

203
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uh worldcoin put in a significant day

204
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today I think that uh everything is more

205
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or less doing the same thing so I want

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to be mindful of that so breaks of local

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structure have led to continuation

208
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pretty much across the board um and I

209
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don't think the rug is going to get

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pulled out yet so I I think world coin

211
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is worth paying attention to because I

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think this is probably going to follow

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the same in the same path that every

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other strong coin has been for the last

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week and a half um TA of course Sue and

216
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SE uh Tia Phantom

217
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and um mutable X now as I said it is

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worth noting like there's a lot of I

219
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mean if you look at whiff for example

220
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the market is getting pretty busy behind

221
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these moves um so there does look like

222
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there's that sort of prepositioning that

223
00:08:12,079 --> 00:08:15,638
you would anticipate when things look

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really bullish and you know what is more

225
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than likely is that you you wash this

226
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out what I will say though is it because

227
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of where we are and because of how much

228
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these have been washed out to this point

229
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I wouldn't just look at something like

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this like an increase in open interest

231
00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:31,637
that just jacked up um when we're

232
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sitting at resistance like this and say

233
00:08:31,639 --> 00:08:36,158
okay you know this is uh we have to wash

234
00:08:33,479 --> 00:08:38,200
this out completely right now it's more

235
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than likely that you're you're getting

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shorts in this as well and getting

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people in this as well that think that

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there's still good opportunities to sell

239
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these and to hedge you know portfolios

240
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with alts and and to you know basically

241
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impose their beliefs on further downside

242
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right here off of this bounce thinking

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that it's you know potentially just a

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lower high in the making um so I think

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you have a significant mix rather than

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just one-sidedness

247
00:08:59,799 --> 00:09:04,119
now what that to me means is like this

248
00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,199
could eventually wash out but I think

249
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,600
that what's more likely is that the open

250
00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,200
interest that you see right here most of

251
00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:12,079
it can remain we'll have a further pop

252
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,640
up you know we'll see something where a

253
00:09:12,078 --> 00:09:14,639
little bit of that washes out and it

254
00:09:13,639 --> 00:09:16,319
won't be the case that we're just

255
00:09:14,639 --> 00:09:18,078
looking at a market that's likely going

256
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,680
to just give back everything immediately

257
00:09:18,078 --> 00:09:22,759
like we have um more recently right like

258
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:24,278
up to this point and again I think that

259
00:09:22,759 --> 00:09:25,838
that's because things are starting to

260
00:09:24,278 --> 00:09:28,039
transition on the high time frame and

261
00:09:25,839 --> 00:09:29,719
sort of just imagine not even just the

262
00:09:28,039 --> 00:09:31,239
chart High time frame but from a high

263
00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,440
time frame perspective we I think we're

264
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,879
starting to have enough of an imbalance

265
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:38,239
where Supply is left you know weak hands

266
00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:40,039
and um it's back in a position of maybe

267
00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:42,518
more firm hands and it's unlike that

268
00:09:40,039 --> 00:09:45,439
we're going to see sort of that same

269
00:09:42,519 --> 00:09:47,759
extreme PVP beh excuse me PVP Behavior

270
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:49,399
with alt um so if it's strong right now

271
00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:51,439
I I would sort of extrapolate on it

272
00:09:49,399 --> 00:09:52,680
being strong again like I said into the

273
00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,519
month of October that's sort of like

274
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,438
what my thinking is and I'm going to go

275
00:09:54,519 --> 00:09:59,799
into specifically how I'm how I'm

276
00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:01,159
positioning for that uh rather how I'm

277
00:09:59,799 --> 00:10:03,837
positioning and and how I'm going to

278
00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:05,639
execute around that and sort of how much

279
00:10:03,839 --> 00:10:08,199
wiggle room I'm going to give prices

280
00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:11,398
because I said you know uh September

281
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,999
29th me the first week that goes into

282
00:10:11,399 --> 00:10:15,240
October

283
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,600
um if we're going to get a pullback and

284
00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,119
October is going to be strong or rather

285
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,959
If October is going to be strong I think

286
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:22,759
that the pullback that you get basically

287
00:10:19,958 --> 00:10:24,958
the wick that's created um I don't think

288
00:10:22,759 --> 00:10:27,318
that it gives back much more than 10%

289
00:10:24,958 --> 00:10:29,398
off the September close and I don't

290
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,480
think it's going to happen any I think

291
00:10:29,399 --> 00:10:32,680
if it happens it's going to happen in

292
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,319
the first week so we'll get to that in a

293
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:36,319
second but just looking through some of

294
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,440
these you do have a good amount of

295
00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,759
positioning that's come back into the

296
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,359
Futures Market behind them um some of

297
00:10:39,759 --> 00:10:43,158
them do look a little crowded so if you

298
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:46,320
look at near for example and this is off

299
00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:47,838
of this is based on coins right so we

300
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,518
have a high here we're basically just

301
00:10:47,839 --> 00:10:51,239
slightly above that high you can see how

302
00:10:49,519 --> 00:10:52,680
much open interest is jacked up now

303
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,999
remember though this is just this is

304
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,518
also Capital just coming back in right

305
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,799
Capital coming back into the market that

306
00:10:56,519 --> 00:11:01,719
was you know is looking at potentially

307
00:10:58,799 --> 00:11:03,598
the first significant change and I don't

308
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,958
know if you could look at this as you

309
00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,479
might have uh in the past where you had

310
00:11:05,958 --> 00:11:08,998
these big pops up in open interest out

311
00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,638
of nowhere like a rate of changes off

312
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,000
the charts and you know you just

313
00:11:10,639 --> 00:11:14,639
anticipated that that would get washed

314
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:16,360
out um you have to also remember that

315
00:11:14,639 --> 00:11:19,560
there is there are people that would

316
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:22,159
just prefer and you know for good reason

317
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:24,398
to get in position with per because a

318
00:11:22,159 --> 00:11:25,837
lot of the times they're more liquid uh

319
00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:27,359
and just because they're using leverage

320
00:11:25,839 --> 00:11:30,119
doesn't mean they're under you know

321
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:31,720
under collateralized so it's not the

322
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:33,919
case that everyone who is you know in

323
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,159
this open interest is using 100x you

324
00:11:33,919 --> 00:11:36,718
could have a good amount of positioning

325
00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:38,598
here that is built up that has no

326
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,999
liquidation and this person is just

327
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:42,398
executing through purpose because again

328
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:45,679
it's a more liquid Market um so if we

329
00:11:42,399 --> 00:11:47,120
look at FTM same story open interest is

330
00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,679
is starting to come back into these

331
00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,959
markets and I think it's basically you

332
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,359
could start to say interest is coming

333
00:11:49,958 --> 00:11:54,398
back into these markets even though

334
00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:56,518
that's obviously not the it's not the uh

335
00:11:54,399 --> 00:11:57,799
formal definition of open interest but

336
00:11:56,519 --> 00:12:00,879
just if you think about it that way it

337
00:11:57,799 --> 00:12:02,077
kind of makes sense also um so yeah you

338
00:12:00,879 --> 00:12:04,359
have to be mindful of this because I

339
00:12:02,078 --> 00:12:06,199
don't think we're in Free Ride territory

340
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:08,839
um there is position in getting behind

341
00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:10,879
these but again I think it does a lot

342
00:12:08,839 --> 00:12:14,159
for a lot of these it does depend on uh

343
00:12:10,879 --> 00:12:15,879
sort of what btc's path is so

344
00:12:14,159 --> 00:12:17,719
specifically for these alts and again

345
00:12:15,879 --> 00:12:19,758
I'm not going to go over each individual

346
00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:22,399
one this is the watch list that I'm

347
00:12:19,759 --> 00:12:25,239
looking at but the idea for the trade is

348
00:12:22,399 --> 00:12:27,879
it's pretty much all the same across the

349
00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,799
board um I have these alts picked for a

350
00:12:27,879 --> 00:12:31,919
specific reason um I think that these

351
00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:34,039
are the likely ones or likely candidates

352
00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:38,239
to to carry through off of September

353
00:12:34,039 --> 00:12:39,957
strength um and the idea again is that a

354
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,920
turn on the high time frame so if you

355
00:12:39,958 --> 00:12:43,999
look at something like I mean Sue is

356
00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:46,957
absolutely ripped um if you look at

357
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:50,320
something like Tia um say is a good

358
00:12:46,958 --> 00:12:53,039
example fet is a good example whiff is a

359
00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:56,119
good example um we'll we'll stick with

360
00:12:53,039 --> 00:12:58,077
whiff for this example uh the first time

361
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,519
or we'll stick with um what's it called

362
00:12:58,078 --> 00:13:01,359
what did I there was a I don't know if I

363
00:12:59,519 --> 00:13:02,680
already put it on there oh I didn't put

364
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,239
it on there okay so I had a chart where

365
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:07,719
I actually had a we'll stick with TOA

366
00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:08,560
it's fine um I had a chart with uh was

367
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:12,559
it

368
00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:15,039
say I guess I don't have any of them um

369
00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:16,518
stick with say okay so I had a a box set

370
00:13:15,039 --> 00:13:18,638
up already so I didn't have to redraw

371
00:13:16,519 --> 00:13:20,959
everything but the idea for these for me

372
00:13:18,639 --> 00:13:22,518
is is pretty simple and I think it comes

373
00:13:20,958 --> 00:13:24,319
off one having an understanding of

374
00:13:22,519 --> 00:13:26,199
Market participant Behavior being around

375
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,759
long enough here having an understanding

376
00:13:26,198 --> 00:13:29,158
of positioning knowing what it means

377
00:13:27,759 --> 00:13:31,879
that the market has moved down for this

378
00:13:29,159 --> 00:13:33,718
long um and how that has you know how

379
00:13:31,879 --> 00:13:35,838
that reflects positioning and you know

380
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,119
how easy it should be for this market to

381
00:13:35,839 --> 00:13:40,638
continue to move up at least for the

382
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:43,278
interim and even if again even

383
00:13:40,639 --> 00:13:45,119
if uh this Market was going to continue

384
00:13:43,278 --> 00:13:47,558
to move down remember markets don't move

385
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:52,600
in a straight line they move like this

386
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:53,837
right they move um they they take a a

387
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,039
they don't really take a tight path

388
00:13:53,839 --> 00:13:56,719
anywhere and if you trade leverage you

389
00:13:55,039 --> 00:13:59,999
should obviously understand that because

390
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:01,559
Leverage is uh path dependent um or for

391
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,879
for most people using leverage it is

392
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,599
path dependent that's why you should be

393
00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:06,838
using options in many cases but either

394
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,439
way all right I don't want to lose my

395
00:14:06,839 --> 00:14:10,959
train of thought so the idea is that

396
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,160
this is a first turn in a while it's

397
00:14:10,958 --> 00:14:14,599
likely to capture a lot of attention uh

398
00:14:13,159 --> 00:14:17,277
on a lot of these you've started to

399
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:19,159
retrade back above prior levels that

400
00:14:17,278 --> 00:14:20,318
we've had trouble with in the past so if

401
00:14:19,159 --> 00:14:22,078
you're looking at this on the monthly

402
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,920
chart you could see very easily on the

403
00:14:22,078 --> 00:14:26,679
daily chart how for example on say we're

404
00:14:23,919 --> 00:14:29,197
making new highs right breaking out of a

405
00:14:26,679 --> 00:14:30,397
range you know price has been without a

406
00:14:29,198 --> 00:14:33,398
for a really long time you've had

407
00:14:30,399 --> 00:14:34,879
multiple moves down that um oh sometimes

408
00:14:33,399 --> 00:14:36,758
that I hate when that happens if you

409
00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:39,718
have like a different chart format

410
00:14:36,759 --> 00:14:42,880
window setup it'll pull up like an old

411
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:45,160
um an old uh what's it

412
00:14:42,879 --> 00:14:47,278
called like

413
00:14:45,159 --> 00:14:51,038
indicator template here we go I just

414
00:14:47,278 --> 00:14:53,957
want to keep this nothing on it naked um

415
00:14:51,039 --> 00:14:56,598
so retaking local highs right you put in

416
00:14:53,958 --> 00:14:58,398
a higher low um this is like the daily

417
00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:01,079
the month the weekly and the monthly

418
00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:03,919
chart makes it really clear right so my

419
00:15:01,078 --> 00:15:05,518
idea is that the same way that this had

420
00:15:03,919 --> 00:15:08,398
inertia on the way down you know this on

421
00:15:05,519 --> 00:15:11,519
the way up this on the way down um you

422
00:15:08,399 --> 00:15:12,799
could expect that on a turn like this

423
00:15:11,519 --> 00:15:13,838
especially when you're sending a signal

424
00:15:12,799 --> 00:15:15,359
like this you know from a market

425
00:15:13,839 --> 00:15:18,199
structure standpoint kind of like where

426
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:19,839
we are exactly uh in the big picture as

427
00:15:18,198 --> 00:15:21,598
well right after the First Rate cut

428
00:15:19,839 --> 00:15:24,159
going into an election cycle going into

429
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,720
an election relatively soon um as long

430
00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:28,479
as stocks are going to continue to to

431
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:32,958
move up I think that crypto has a decent

432
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:34,920
Runway right so there's from a sort of a

433
00:15:32,958 --> 00:15:36,397
existential standpoint and a supply

434
00:15:34,919 --> 00:15:38,358
standpoint there's less in the way I

435
00:15:36,399 --> 00:15:40,040
think of of the market moving up and

436
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,1000
again like I said this could this could

437
00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:43,878
just be a bounce here and then move down

438
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,359
but this move still makes sense right

439
00:15:43,879 --> 00:15:47,599
this sort of meaner version on the high

440
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,319
time frame and things scale up right so

441
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,398
low time frame mean inversions you scale

442
00:15:49,318 --> 00:15:52,637
the market up and you get the same thing

443
00:15:51,399 --> 00:15:54,079
the same behavior on the high time

444
00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:56,639
frames as well unless there's some kind

445
00:15:54,078 --> 00:15:58,999
of catalyst or you know stock uh some

446
00:15:56,639 --> 00:16:00,879
kind of news with regard to an equity

447
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,799
it'll send that to zero like in an

448
00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:05,239
instant and you're not expecting it to

449
00:16:02,799 --> 00:16:06,957
cover the ground um but for the way

450
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:09,199
these trades the Commodities or these

451
00:16:06,958 --> 00:16:11,278
trade like Commodities and just

452
00:16:09,198 --> 00:16:13,158
shitcoins um a lot of times like I said

453
00:16:11,278 --> 00:16:14,358
you could get a a bounce that covers 50%

454
00:16:13,159 --> 00:16:16,518
of this move and then it'll continue

455
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,199
down and sort of do that at infin item

456
00:16:16,519 --> 00:16:19,240
until you get that uh you know that

457
00:16:18,198 --> 00:16:21,718
structure that just looks like a

458
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,600
bouncing ball over time all right anyhow

459
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,680
so let's say we continue to close out

460
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:28,720
September like this really strong signal

461
00:16:25,679 --> 00:16:31,879
to the entire Market this is my idea and

462
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:34,359
it's it's pretty simple um I am looking

463
00:16:31,879 --> 00:16:37,239
at the September close and I'm giving

464
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:39,879
price and I know exactly this level

465
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,959
right now um I'm giving price about 10%

466
00:16:39,879 --> 00:16:45,197
into the October open what this works

467
00:16:41,958 --> 00:16:47,517
out to be is the half of the weekly ATR

468
00:16:45,198 --> 00:16:49,438
right so I've gone over what I use ATR

469
00:16:47,519 --> 00:16:50,999
for in the past I've talked about this

470
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,440
in YouTube videos I've talked about this

471
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:57,160
on Twitter I've talked about it in the

472
00:16:52,440 --> 00:17:00,079
telegram as well um so my idea is that

473
00:16:57,159 --> 00:17:03,359
the market shouldn't give back more than

474
00:17:00,078 --> 00:17:05,078
the half excuse me half of a weekly ATR

475
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,078
um if it's going to continue to be

476
00:17:05,078 --> 00:17:09,119
bullish through the month of October

477
00:17:07,078 --> 00:17:10,437
right so a lot of the times this

478
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,119
actually lines up from a market

479
00:17:10,439 --> 00:17:13,879
structure standpoint and I said the

480
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:17,197
other day I said I'm looking within 10%

481
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:19,559
windows so the point is if the trend is

482
00:17:17,199 --> 00:17:22,479
going to remain forward we shouldn't get

483
00:17:19,558 --> 00:17:24,359
a dip below what is in many cases you

484
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:27,359
know a half of a weekly

485
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:28,639
ATR uh in my opinion in that first week

486
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,118
right so the idea is you should put the

487
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,320
low in in the first week and I talk

488
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,519
about in strong trends like if you look

489
00:17:32,319 --> 00:17:35,798
at um if you look at stocks for example

490
00:17:34,519 --> 00:17:37,438
a lot of the times the low is put in

491
00:17:35,798 --> 00:17:39,318
within the low or the high is put in

492
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,799
with the first hour of the day now from

493
00:17:39,319 --> 00:17:42,718
a context standpoint if things are

494
00:17:40,798 --> 00:17:44,798
really bullish you can imagine that

495
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,599
maybe it's a little bit more

496
00:17:44,798 --> 00:17:48,079
one-sidedness in terms of which way

497
00:17:46,599 --> 00:17:49,958
you're which you interpret is going to

498
00:17:48,079 --> 00:17:52,519
happen uh whether or not it's the low

499
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:54,280
being put in or the high being put in so

500
00:17:52,519 --> 00:17:56,918
sort of extending that train of thought

501
00:17:54,279 --> 00:17:59,878
to uh this market and seeing this done

502
00:17:56,919 --> 00:18:04,119
seeing this countless times um I think

503
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:05,960
that the first week of October is it

504
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:08,119
kind of lines up right so you would see

505
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,1000
the low put in there and if we're going

506
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:12,157
to get continuation I don't think you

507
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:15,200
want to dip more than half of a weekly

508
00:18:12,159 --> 00:18:16,479
ATR um if we dip more than that it kind

509
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,918
of just looks like it's the same

510
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:21,678
activity right and nothing has really

511
00:18:18,919 --> 00:18:23,840
changed uh and you're just giving back a

512
00:18:21,679 --> 00:18:25,639
you're giving back a lot and it also

513
00:18:23,839 --> 00:18:26,918
again like I said a lot of times this

514
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,159
would violate the market from a

515
00:18:26,919 --> 00:18:31,279
structural standpoint as well um so if

516
00:18:29,159 --> 00:18:33,880
we look at you know this for example 10%

517
00:18:31,279 --> 00:18:37,157
you know 45 down to 40 let's if we

518
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:39,479
closed here you know that is uh what did

519
00:18:37,159 --> 00:18:41,760
I say 45 down to right around yeah right

520
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:44,840
around 40 look at the weekly ATR it's

521
00:18:41,759 --> 00:18:46,199
it's 01 right so this the average true

522
00:18:44,839 --> 00:18:49,157
range and and this is looking at a

523
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:51,879
weekly chart so you know pulling back

524
00:18:49,159 --> 00:18:53,200
into that level right around 10% puts us

525
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,600
right around back at the range highs

526
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,240
again this works perfectly for this

527
00:18:54,599 --> 00:18:58,158
because we haven't closed yet but

528
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,918
regardless of where this is the point is

529
00:18:58,159 --> 00:19:02,960
off of a strong move I don't think you

530
00:18:59,919 --> 00:19:04,319
should give back much um so high time

531
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,399
frame structure sort of scaling up like

532
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:08,198
we would in low time frame trades a half

533
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,678
a weekly ATR is I think all that you're

534
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,519
going to see give back if this thing is

535
00:19:09,679 --> 00:19:13,119
going to continue to move up and you

536
00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:15,879
this is evidenced in the past in really

537
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:19,519
strong monthly Trends as well um so the

538
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:22,038
idea is once we close out

539
00:19:19,519 --> 00:19:24,438
September you know a lot of these I said

540
00:19:22,038 --> 00:19:26,999
I I have starter positions on so the

541
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:29,600
idea is once we close out September I'm

542
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:31,400
going to be looking to add uh into that

543
00:19:29,599 --> 00:19:34,158
first week off of this premise and off

544
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:36,199
of this uh this method so for example

545
00:19:34,159 --> 00:19:38,519
wild which I think might just be getting

546
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:41,959
started for its mean version bounce if

547
00:19:38,519 --> 00:19:43,198
we look at give this a 10% pullback um

548
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,879
and we're looking at it on the weekly

549
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,880
chart this is on the monthly chart what

550
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,080
it looks like on the monthly you're

551
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:50,840
basically looking at a monthly engulfing

552
00:19:48,079 --> 00:19:52,479
candle which is a really strong bullish

553
00:19:50,839 --> 00:19:55,478
signal

554
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:59,399
um look at this on the weekly look at

555
00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:04,559
ATR you know you're looking at from

556
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:07,039
214 down to 190 so about 24 and half of

557
00:20:04,558 --> 00:20:10,038
that is that's actually even less than

558
00:20:07,038 --> 00:20:13,079
that um but the I think the the idea is

559
00:20:10,038 --> 00:20:16,438
relatively clean right so strong monthly

560
00:20:13,079 --> 00:20:17,918
change in Market excuse me strong change

561
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,120
on the monthly if you look at a lot of

562
00:20:17,919 --> 00:20:20,359
these are starting to retake moving

563
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,438
averages or at least they're starting to

564
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:25,319
Fan out flatten out and to trade back

565
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:28,199
above um and the idea is to to redeploy

566
00:20:25,319 --> 00:20:31,158
based on this so it's not a very

567
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:32,879
complicated approach um and again I said

568
00:20:31,159 --> 00:20:34,280
like I said I'm treating this as more or

569
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,719
less all one

570
00:20:34,279 --> 00:20:39,157
trade so if we look at fed for example

571
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:42,080
this is a great example uh really strong

572
00:20:39,159 --> 00:20:44,319
monthly move you know we closed out here

573
00:20:42,079 --> 00:20:47,519
we closed out here still just giving

574
00:20:44,319 --> 00:20:49,319
this right around a half a weekly ATR uh

575
00:20:47,519 --> 00:20:51,759
which for most of these works out to be

576
00:20:49,319 --> 00:20:53,958
to be about a 10% move down so the month

577
00:20:51,759 --> 00:20:56,839
of October you know let's say month of

578
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:58,200
October opens start pulling back into

579
00:20:56,839 --> 00:20:59,399
local market structure you know into

580
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,039
prior High

581
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,120
uh I'm keeping this in mind because I

582
00:21:01,038 --> 00:21:05,318
have seen this in the past sort of seen

583
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:07,758
this exact Behavior after these monthly

584
00:21:05,319 --> 00:21:09,958
turns um and notice that you don't

585
00:21:07,759 --> 00:21:12,199
really the first week the low's getting

586
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:14,440
put in and and you're Off to the Races

587
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,559
obviously uh after that and I don't like

588
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,559
I said I don't think that it's

589
00:21:15,558 --> 00:21:20,119
necessarily the case that you're going

590
00:21:17,558 --> 00:21:22,359
to have you know returns in October that

591
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,878
exceed returns in September but I just

592
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,157
think it's more than likely that a lot

593
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:28,038
of these are going to have a little bit

594
00:21:25,159 --> 00:21:29,678
of price inertia um and whether or not

595
00:21:28,038 --> 00:21:32,038
these things move to Prior alltime highs

596
00:21:29,679 --> 00:21:33,440
or just you know trade back up to 50%

597
00:21:32,038 --> 00:21:35,639
levels I I do think you have to be

598
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:38,199
mindful of these so for example if we're

599
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,798
looking at something like fetch you know

600
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,440
and let's say this was like an echo

601
00:21:39,798 --> 00:21:44,557
bubble or dead cap bounce um I think you

602
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:48,079
have to look at the 50% move after such

603
00:21:44,558 --> 00:21:50,599
draw Downs right so if we look at Fetch

604
00:21:48,079 --> 00:21:53,918
and it was a draw down of about to this

605
00:21:50,599 --> 00:21:55,278
point uh just around 80% you know bounce

606
00:21:53,919 --> 00:21:57,159
up to the 0. five level if you're

607
00:21:55,278 --> 00:22:00,359
looking at halfway point basically using

608
00:21:57,159 --> 00:22:01,798
a fib for that um is not uncommon and

609
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,479
it's not uncommon for that to happen and

610
00:22:01,798 --> 00:22:06,158
this just just continued down so being

611
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:08,079
mindful of that as well uh and not just

612
00:22:06,159 --> 00:22:10,639
blindly holding these anticipating that

613
00:22:08,079 --> 00:22:13,638
these are all going to run back to um

614
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,1000
prior highs so hope that makes sense um

615
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,720
it's incorporating again it's

616
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:20,679
incorporating High time frame ATR uh

617
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:23,200
it's based around the idea that a strong

618
00:22:20,679 --> 00:22:25,119
change on the high time frame chart like

619
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,679
this isn't something that just should

620
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,839
you know a lot of times you you won't

621
00:22:26,679 --> 00:22:31,520
see this fizzle out immediately you'll

622
00:22:28,839 --> 00:22:34,157
at least have a follow-up month that's

623
00:22:31,519 --> 00:22:36,639
green and again like I said it's not

624
00:22:34,159 --> 00:22:38,559
it's not the case that it some of these

625
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,798
if you're indexing across the board some

626
00:22:38,558 --> 00:22:43,239
of these you know you had a 30% move in

627
00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:45,439
September maybe it's a 11% move in

628
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,159
October but I think this is just a trade

629
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:50,959
that I'm more or less applying

630
00:22:47,159 --> 00:22:54,479
mechanically based on this criteria um

631
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:57,038
and uh yeah I'm anticipating that uh it

632
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,960
does well so hopefully that clears that

633
00:22:57,038 --> 00:23:00,998
up uh I wanted to do a long video but it

634
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,919
is a little late so I just figured I'd

635
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,320
get this out there but I'll I'll hop on

636
00:23:02,919 --> 00:23:07,520
either tomorrow or the following day and

637
00:23:05,319 --> 00:23:09,798
uh get a little bit more into specifics

638
00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:12,959
intraday stuff I mean looking at BTC

639
00:23:09,798 --> 00:23:14,839
right now again at that 65 level

640
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,440
hovering that 65 level you have three

641
00:23:14,839 --> 00:23:19,157
back-to-back days basically within the

642
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:22,720
same range so relatively equal highs

643
00:23:19,159 --> 00:23:24,279
relatively equal lows um this thing is

644
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,918
you know it's a good candid to actually

645
00:23:24,278 --> 00:23:29,839
just chop around and and continue to

646
00:23:25,919 --> 00:23:30,600
with people um be mindful of stocks

647
00:23:29,839 --> 00:23:33,238
as

648
00:23:30,599 --> 00:23:36,358
well stock Behavior right now things are

649
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:38,640
a little thin um chopping people up on

650
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:40,519
on that side of things if you look at uh

651
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,798
I shared more recently on Twitter

652
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:44,557
someone bought a decent amount of

653
00:23:41,798 --> 00:23:46,677
Premium on the 55k strike at the end of

654
00:23:44,558 --> 00:23:47,998
October uh so spent around a million

655
00:23:46,679 --> 00:23:49,639
dollars I don't know if that's an

656
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,278
outright so anticipating that the

657
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,918
Market's going to drop before then you

658
00:23:51,278 --> 00:23:55,319
do have to keep in mind some of these uh

659
00:23:52,919 --> 00:23:57,239
economic releases though because I think

660
00:23:55,319 --> 00:23:58,918
that there's a good chance even though

661
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,720
we've had the cut um there's still

662
00:23:58,919 --> 00:24:03,279
debate on some people whether or not we

663
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,760
get a hard or soft Landing so um if it's

664
00:24:03,278 --> 00:24:06,238
a hard Landing you know the markets

665
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:08,359
aren't necessarily pricing that in right

666
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,038
now so you have to be mindful of that

667
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,758
and uh I think that covers it so

668
00:24:10,038 --> 00:24:15,238
everyone have a fantastic evening and I

669
00:24:11,759 --> 00:24:15,239
will talk to you soon