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After war in the Middle East broke out over the weekend and slightly dovish FED speak yesterday from Logan and Jefferson, CT10s opened in Tokyo last night at 4.625% (went out at 4.80 Friday afternoon).  Once London and then NY opened sellers pushed 10s back to 4.71%, but as stocks rallied and Oil remained off the highs (WTI $87.4) trading around $85.75 in NY, Treasuries rallied off the lows to re-test the overnight highs. The market failed to make new highs after 3yr note auction, which tailed 1.5bps and dealers took a huge 22.1% vs 14.2% avg of the last 5 auctions. The market quickly re-priced to the middle of the intra-day range. Market is keeping risk light as the war escalates, but better sellers of rallies near term as the large dealer takedown at today’s auction has us believe higher yields are needed to take down 10s tomorrow.
In China IG, market is about unchanged to 1bp wider on low beta names with locals selling on the back of the rates rally, underperforming the broader Asia space – did not really see much of a reaction in cash post headlines of potential China stimulus. Market was active in HAOHUA/TENCNT. HRINTH firmer today with levels about 0.5-1pt higher. Longfor Sep 2023 attributable contracted sales of RMB9.12b, vs RMB8.52b m-m; 9M23 aggregated recurring income RMB18.64b; acquired 1 land slot for RMB927m attributable cost in the month. 
In China HY, spreads are overall underperforming the rates move on performing sectors like Macau and Resorts, with levels only 0.125-0.375pt higher on day. Stressed sectors such as property is grinding in range and lower by 0.5-1.5pts with light flows and sellers targeting higher levels, industrials remain quiet with small selling in WESCHI on back of yesterday's rating action. COGARD expects it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations when due or within the relevant grace periods, including but not limited to those under the USD notes issued by the company; the company has not made a HKD470m due payment under certain of its indebtedness. China Evergrande Group filed a notice with the Southern district of NY bankruptcy court that it would indefinitely adjourn its recognition hearing. 
In Sovereigns, INDON/PHIL traded 0.25-0.5pts higher. Belly of curve unchanged to 2bp tighter in terms of spreads while long end has lagged (0.5-1.25pt higher, 1-3bp wider). Continue interest in low cash price bonds and some outright OWICs and printed a switch out of the high cash into the low cash. Frontiers have been sidelined into this rate driven euphoria and traded 0.125-0.25pt higher with little activity. In IG, very constructive session albeit on light flows as some gap price action post rates move. There was better buying of India IG from RM/PB accounts although in scrap sizes, although there was an up print on EXIMBK 30 at +155 which left the curve 3-5bps tighter on day although the move does not feel substantiated. Some RM selling of PTTGC especially in the belly. ETF buying of KNBZMK 33s along with street lifts sent it about 2bps tighter although there was a downprint on the 28s, curve broadly unch-2bps tighter. In HY, sharp reversal in risk and rates kind of catching investors off guard. Not really have much going through today since everyone still too busy reassessing the sustainability of this treasury rally. Levels were generally +0.25-0.5 in two-way. Front end HY still firm with some demand emerging but price action overall is quite contained instead of seeing ppl chasing the move. VEDLN slightly higher with some buying in 13.875 24s post headlines. More details regarding the oaktree avenue ad-hoc group came out with terms heavily skewed to the benefit of secured bonds, which is expected but again remind everyone the upside of secured bonds especially when levels came off 3pts from the top.
AT1s closed the day 0.9pts higher, the strongest session for months, credited to the treasury rally and sympathetic equity markets. Strong buying from Asian investors (asset managers more than private wealth) right from the open, lifting GSIB names in medium and longer calls. In Europe, flows were more 2-way but US investors were in a mood to add risk do the rally got a second wind in the afternoon. Long calls outperformed, up about 1.25pts with high beta long calls (Italian etc) up more than 1.5pts in places.  Volumes were high across the board, but pricing was competitive with evidently still some dealer inventory on the books. Active names include SOCGEN, BNP, ACAFP, SANTAN, BNS, UBS, UCGIM, STANLN and HSBC.