What are the 5 opportunities the speaker is most bearish/bullish on? If you can't identify 5, give the most you can. 


Alright cool.

Welcome.

This is actually going to be episode one of Givers Gambit.

It's going to be, streams are going to be recorded from now on for the substack.

And this probably is going to be, I'm not going to say final stream, but for this month it's going to be probably the last stream on the Telegram channel.

And like I said, I'll be doing irregular streams here and there throughout the year.

But I think this is going to be a good one.

If you made it to this one, I think you're going to like it.

I think it's going to be worth your time.

Yeah, let's get started.

So if you caught me on the, what's my edge podcast, thanks for listening.

There was like 120 people.

I think it's been played like a thousand times.

But when that happened, I think Bitcoin was still low sixties.

I think it's probably been a week plus or so since I did a stream or, and frankly, you know, I haven't been chatting that much in the, in the staff Telegram channel either, if I'm being honest, it's been, I wouldn't say it's been puzzling, but there's just been a lot happening.

And so, you know, I don't, I don't like speculating and piecemeal because I often find that data points, they need to be, you need, you need more than just a day or two days to really, to really see what's happening or to put some form of conclusion together.

And I think today is kind of where the light bulb went off for me.

And I will be sharing on, on, so it's going to be, there's a few things that I want to do a dive on.

There will be a Twitter expose or write up because I think it's that big.

What I am thinking here is it's, it's not, I wouldn't say it's not going to be on the, it might not be on the same level in terms of depth as the Ethereum trade or the, or the ethical long, but I think it's going to be just as contrarian.

And it probably marks like, I think the third, I'm possibly final, most asymmetric opportunity set if I, if I am correct, which I may not be.

This is, it's still very indicative.

There's much more work I want to do to finalize everything.

And by the time that it's in shareable digestible form, I expect to have, to have more, to, you know, more to speak on.

So this is in adjacent to how I've conducted streams in the past.

This is kind of more of a workshop stream, kind of a, you know, developing view stream.

So yeah, we're just gonna, we're just gonna go right into it.

When we look at the previous week's price action, I think it's certainly been confusing.

It certainly can be confusing for me.

I think it's been, I think many people are having a difficulty dissecting what exactly is going on or, you know, maybe they're not, but I think they are not thinking about what is actually happening correctly.

If we recall last week, we were kind of facing the fallout effects of, you know, the easing bit still, right?

You know, China either visualized through the Hong Center or the SSE, depressed in price a little bit.

Bitcoin was kind of mirroring that there was some correlation to equities.

The rumors around the US government selling, I think elicited, well, not just rumors, but you know, very likely, you know, possibility of selling visualized through the Coinbase discount.

It reflected in price, right?

Like we retested 60, we actually hit 59.

And then there was a very visceral reaction at 59 to really just, you know, sharply go to 62.

But I think at that point in time, that was kind of the beginning of this move, I think that's how I think about it.

You know, my visualization and there's going to be, it's going to be like, it's multifaceted.

But let me start with the conclusion first.

I am long Bitcoin and I'm short everything else.

I think that is going to be the trade for the next two or three weeks.

And this is less of a bet on Bitcoin dominance, right?

It's more of a long short trade, right?

Because when I was long Bitcoin in September, going into a potential 50 bits rate cut, I was just really, I was only long Bitcoin.

I wasn't, I wasn't taking short exposure around that time.

And if I did, it was very light because I wanted to focus on Bitcoin dominance rising.

But I think Bitcoin dominance potentially rising here is not what I'm trying to focus on.

I'm mostly using Bitcoin as a long hedge against what I believe to be, you know, catalyst toward expressing a view on two things.

The first being that I believe the bit that is currently happening is event driven.

I don't think it's sticky capital.

And I think the second is that we are already kind of seeing weakness globally with respect to Ethereum, Solana and other alts.

So we can kind of start with how price action evolved from last week, right?

We saw expansion with micro strategy, the premium versus nav.

And that's kind of, you know, I'm going to do a deep dive around that.

That's going to be something that I want to do around the stack, which is pretty much demystifying the premium.

But when we look at the last two years, sharp expansion, right?

I'm not talking about EBS and, and dips.

I'm talking about a relentless bid, you know, almost as if there's no more Bitcoin left in the world type bid.

When you see that type of expansion on micro strategy historically, it's kind of, it's kind of reflective of two things.

One sloppy execution and two it's block buying, right?

It's a happening and a congested period of time, almost as if it's price agnostic, right?

Almost as if it's price agnostic.

And this is important because this sets up the foundation for, for my thesis in that first, we have to understand and dimension the type of bidders that exist in the ecosystem today.

And the way that I think about it is fourfold.

The first is that you have speculators kind of like us, right?

We're crypto native people.

They accentuate very deep troughs and very deep peaks.

It's reflective of the price discovery that we've seen in previous cycles typically centered around the halving four years, right?

The, the, the standard type of participant, which I would argue, you know, last cycle, I would say 100% or close to a hundred percent could be like 90 or 85, 85 to a hundred percent of, of, of crypto participants fit into this category started beginning this year.

And I think why we've remained in a, in a, in a chop for a period of time and something that I've expressed and painted on before we added on to new participants.

The first being the pass is bitter.

It's the ETF bitter.

They are generally price agnostic.

The way that I would visualize this participant is that they have been conditioned into, into, into, into, into hoarding, right?

Much more than, you know, the, the, the seeming hodl, you know, player that, that you might see expressed his opinion on Twitter.

The reason is, is, you know, they are, they are looking for Bitcoin as a, as diversification, right?

They have traditionally been part of the 60 40 portfolio.

They understand that, you know, historically when you want to realize six to 8% annualized on the S and P you are in this trade for, you know, a minimum of 10 to 15 years.

And it's expected to be something that, you know, you kind of hold through that volatility.

And I think this participant is, is likely, you know, that that's kind of the model that we can use for these guys.

I think the third participant or the second new participant is the, is the carry bitter, right?

And I've spoken about this before and these guys are price agnostic, but they are very rate sensitive, right?

In the, in the way that if the, you know, the carry opportunity or if something else that can offer similar yield presents itself, this capital is likely it will not likely, it is mercenary and, and connects it.

Athena counts as that participant.

And I think the fourth bidder, which I don't think many people are speaking around and generally lack understanding is, is the event driven bidder, which sets up the, the cause for kind of the, how I see the next two to three weeks going, they are effectively using Trump or rather they are speculating a Trump win or a hedging a Trump win using Bitcoin as liquid proxy.

What I mean by that is it is not so much, and this is the con the following is I think closer to consensus, which is people think that the outcome of price discovery around Bitcoin, around these edges, either a hundred or 40 K is dependent on the outcome of the election, right?

Harris 40 Trump, a hundred.

I don't think it's like that.

I think it's actually the reverse or I want, I want to reverse, but I think that the election is not the driver, but the result in the sense that today over the last two weeks and over the last two weeks and into the next two weeks, you have price speculation similar to when we can use the case study of, of the overheated Trump rally around the strategic reserve asset acquisition back in July as a proxy.

You have expansive OI growth in Ethereum, in Bitcoin, on CME, suggesting a new presence, new money that is here to speculate around the outcome of the election.

However, this participant is looking to, you know, quote unquote, close the discount, you know, more kind of similar to the time of might participant that you might see enter in the grayscale BTC or grayscale Ethereum trade closing.

And this participant is I, in my view, going to exit their positions independence of the outcome of the election.

This participant or this bidder via their entries today, it is static capital.

It's not capital that is going to be recycled throughout the ecosystem, which is, it's very important distinction because in the normal situation, if you have a price sensitive bidder, that bidder, you know, through organic capital flowing in through the ecosystem, if you look at 2021 or the previous cycle as a case study, they, they will buy BTC, they'll likely diversify through other means so that, you know, $1 created via entry is, you know, $1 plus globally and with the effect of, you know, rehypothecation via over collateralized loans, illiquid like NFTs, etc.

They, that $1 is actually more than a dollar, right?

And that is what leads to reflexivity and ultimate price discovery globally, right?

Not just within Bitcoin.

I think this bidder, they are speculating or I guess using Bitcoin as a risk proxy and they are not going to explore elsewhere in the ecosystem.

It's why expansion, you can really see bidding via ETF products as a recent or CME.

We can gather that this bidder or this type of player is not going to do so because you can actually see the early inklings of laggard behavior around non BTC products.

For example, in the BTC ascension that we saw today, BTC beta, which has historically been coins like Stax, Orte, Sats, throughout multiple junctures this year when we've had more organic price discovery, they have traveled along with Bitcoin, but this time they have not, right?

Ethereum and Solana over the weekend from 61 to 64, they initially followed, but over these last two days, you've seen a lack of appetite and spot follow through to suggest a uniform bid throughout the crypto universe.

And as another lag, you can see with ETF products is that there is no bid around Ethereum whatsoever, suggesting again that this bid around Bitcoin is very idiosyncratic and possibly reflective of a different bidder class and not someone that is going to stick around.

I think there's going to be a greater divergence over the next two weeks in the sense that Bitcoin could very well remain in the higher echelon or echelon of this range, possibly even scratch 70, 71, 72, 73.

I'm not sure where the barometer for Bitcoin lies, but I am making the bet that ratios against Bitcoin are going to continue falling and effectively erase liquidity as a result of that.

Because like I said, I think independent of the outcome of the election, that money is going to leave.

Whether or not capital consolidates toward the end of November, et cetera, that's a different story and how that coalesces and manifests into price at that point, that's not the window that I'm expressing this over.

But I think that is the outcome for me today.

I think what can do well if you want to take advantage of, if you believe in this idea, obviously, be long Bitcoin or have exposure to Bitcoin or just be flat.

I think low cap meme coins can honestly still do pretty well.

I've been in some myself and I think that, for example, like Go or yeah, almost spoke on something else, but some of these low cap meme coins, they are generally uncorrelated.

They are the manifestation of recycled capital, very recycled capital, trying to push money at the margin.

If you think about it, it's really just the next derivative of what I wrote in the ethical long.

The money that is required to move at the margin for these low cap meme coins is much smaller than it takes to move money into positions of liquidity.

But the point is that right now, my view is that risk on exposure is fully capped out.

There is no more money that is left cryptonatively to actually expand.

We've had two cascades, which is around Jackson Hole and this last cascade that I've talked about a abundant amount of times near the start of October.

Pending new money and not just new money, new money that is willing to play and generate reflexivity, this is likely where I expect the mid-range of crypto assets to stay around, which is if you are a believer in the Bitcoin all-time high in 2024 story, I think that's probably not a story that I can get behind.

And like I said, I'm going to flash this out much more into my plan, but that's kind of how I'm thinking about it, things initially.

And like I said, it's taken a few days to connect the dots.

But when you see this amount of money flushing in all at once, there's really only two possibilities, right?

If we're being honest, either they are front running something that we don't know about, which arguably kind of was the case in July, right around the announcement of the strategic reserve asset.

Or well, actually, I would say it's either that or some sort of covering, some sort of delayed execution that like I said, it's given how this has went, given how it's effectively been bought in blocks.

I think that we can have a pretty certain view that it's not just your standard passive bidder adding chips and sticking around over weeks and months that we kind of actually saw as a case study back in February and March, right?

You have ETF inflows that are abundant coming in every day, every week, fresh money coming in to revitalize the ecosystem.

So that is effectively my view.

I think the contrarian approach here is that historically, BTC going up with everything else lagging could lead to new price discovery around everything else.

And we certainly saw that in 2021, which I believe was the effect of leverage and that capital being very organic.

I think both attributes are not in place today for there to be real price discovery.

And that is the conclusion of where I'm at today.

So if you manage to catch a stream, good on you.

Probably going to remain silent about this until I have a fuller idea of what's going on.

And maybe I'll take some questions, keep the stream short.

I have some work to do.

Yeah, the pods are going to be on the, on the sub stack like under podcasts and you can kind of listen to it on your own time there.

These comments are funny.

You have to, you have to really think, okay, I think a question that you asked is a good one.

Why wouldn't they hedge five traditional asset classes or employee market?

They are hedging by traditional asset classes.

Look at the Donald Trump Trump and Donald Trump media entertainment company.

It was $10 at the end of September and it's already dollars today.

It grew $20 or another way of saying it grew three times its valuation in the span of two weeks with no, with no new quarterly earnings or announcements.

Like what there was nothing fundamental about this move, right?

It is a reflection of, like I said, capital either speculating on Trump and with that come with that capital being, you know, quickly unwound or hedging against a Trump win possibly because they have exposure in industries that benefit from a, from a democratic, a continued democratic, democratic regime.

Mm hmm.

Mm hmm.

Ah, yes.

I think it's a good one.

I think it's a good one.

I mean, I think it exits during or after the election and I think, oh, it's some good risks.

We should talk about risks and invalidation.

Um, the risks are that, you know, I am wrong, of course.

And you can very easily see this because there's going to be, you know, very full beta and possibly, uh, you know, large pickups in alt against BTC during this timeframe.

You know, that would very easily invalidate my idea.

I think, you know, if we reach a new alt, um, high in Bitcoin as well, uh, despite roughly $400 million or $300 to $400 million less in the total ecosystem today versus March, I think that possibly could invalidate this idea as well.

So it'll be something that I think you can grow either more or less confident in toward the outcome of the election.

But that is my, that's my view.

Would you short after elections?

Um, I, my personal view is to build exposure over the next, over the following weeks because, you know, one, I've always talked about the fact that I'm not the greatest around execution, but in a similar vein, I think there is going to be systematic weakness persisting even from today onward.

Um, I think the smarter participants are probably going to catch onto this even before the election.

And there could be a substantial amount of de-risking ahead of the election as well, which is kind of, uh, you know, multiple ways to win and go for me and being short biased.

So for those reasons, I'm, I'm happy to short before the election from my understanding with all the easing systems that are going on right now, that money is not something that likely actually gets injected in 2024 in a meaningful way.

So with where I think the glass ceiling effectively is today and the inability to penetrate it, I think that suggests we are likely going to be range bound and this is kind of, you know, capital formation around a local top.

I'll maybe think about one or two more questions and, uh, you know, you guys will, you know, I'll be here.

You know, like I won't, I'm not going to disappear on you guys.

I'll do, I'll do, I'll try to, I'll try to stream, you know, as often as I can and help you guys out.

I mean, if you guys care, listen, that is.

Do you own any Floyd AI?

Georgia droid.

Yeah, I've been, I've been looking at some AI meme coins.

No comment, but I think they're pretty cool.

I've been, I've been in the trenches.

You know, it's Chumbaworld.

So again, this is just to be very clear, this, this window of play is, it's specific to the next two or three weeks.

You know, I have a developing view for how I think the end of the year goes, but that's, that's not the purpose of this stream or, or, or kind of the, the, the window of opportunity that I think exists today.

What websites do you get all your data from?

I mean, I do a lot of original geo creation, but I would say all my data points are probably available.

You know, coin market, uh, coin gecko, coin glass, VLo data, uh, trading view, you know, um, you know, if it's micro strategy, I'm going to go to BamSec or their website, and then I'll just build my own, my own graphs or data points.

I also think there may have been some temporary relief with Mt.

Gox distribution getting deferred as well that played a lot of a hand in the, the inception of this bid forum, possibly around that 59 or 60 K mark, uh, last week.

But I think most of the following through and the, the ensuing push to 67 is, is reflective of, of, of demand around, uh, um, you know, a Trump adjacent win or, or setting exposure to what is perceived to do well around Trump.

Right?

Because, you know, if someone doesn't want, so let's say there wasn't, there was, like I said, this is very price sensitive execution.

So let's say someone entered around 64, 63 ahead of the election, Bitcoin's at 70.

I think that is, I think there is reason to believe that they could do risk there and not actually roll the dice on the outcome of the election itself.

And if they are confirmed, if let's say Trump gets confirmed as a victor, they are selling there and if Harris is, is the winner, they're also selling.

So I think independent of the outcome there, that better, this better is selling regardless because they're, they're not a structural buyer at these assets.

How do you play music during stream?

I bought a new mic and this, this mic is able to play browser music and then switch modes to them picking up my voice.

I invested, invested.

I'll do two more questions.

Do you think there are participants who are waiting for confirmation of Trump when before bidding?

It could very well be the case.

I don't think so though.

I think that capital is, is likely exhausted.

I think September, October, the surprising reflexive, well not surprising to us and stream listeners, right?

Not surprising, not surprising to us, but surprising to others.

I think that caught, that caught some, that caught some capital.

It caught a bit very strong narrative that quickly exhausted back in September.

I think that kind of showed the degree to how risk on we can get in a very positive climate with seemingly no overhangs and you know, maybe a month or an ability to train in a vacuum of a month to a month and a half.

I think there are supply cliffs that are meaningful toward the end of the year that will net, net against any, you know, call it activated capital than a script native.

Yeah, that's my view and you know, thanks so much for listening.

I think I'm going to close the stream off there.

I'll be talking more about this idea and flushing it out through the telegram for the sub-stack, but you know, if you're keen to witness the final product, just turn notifications on for my Twitter because I will release a more comprehensive piece a la, you know, what we have, you know, what I put together in August for, you know, the individual ideas I expressed at that point.

So thank you very much and talk to you guys later.