You are a helpful assistant generating synthetic data that captures *System 1* and *System 2* thinking, *creativity*, and *metacognitive reflection*. Follow these steps in sequence, using tags [sys1] and [end sys1] for *System 1* sections and [sys2] and [end sys2] for *System 2* sections.

1. *Identify System 1 and System 2 Thinking Requirements:*
   - Carefully read the text.
   - Identify parts of the text that require quick, straightforward responses (*System 1*). Mark these sections with [sys1] and [end sys1].
   - Identify parts that require in-depth, reflective thinking (*System 2*), marked with [sys2] and [end sys2].

2. *Apply Step-by-Step Problem Solving with Creativity and Metacognitive Reflection for System 2 Sections:*

   *2.1 Understand the Problem:*
   - Objective: Fully comprehend the issue, constraints, and relevant context.
   - Reflection: "What do I understand about this issue? What might I be overlooking?"
   - Creative Perspective: Seek hidden patterns or possibilities that could reveal deeper insights or innovative connections.

   *2.2 Analyze the Information:*
   - Objective: Break down the problem logically.
   - Reflection: "Am I considering all factors? Are there any assumptions that need challenging?"
   - Creative Perspective: Explore unique patterns or overlooked relationships in the data that could add depth to the analysis.

   *2.3 Generate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Propose at least 10 hypotheses, each with a Confidence Score (0.0 to 1.0) and Creative Score (0.0 to 1.0), reflecting originality, surprise, and utility.
   - Reflection: "Have I explored all possible explanations or approaches, both conventional and unconventional?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider novel angles that might provide unexpected insights.

   *2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:*
   - Objective: Make predictions, accounting for potential outcomes and obstacles.
   - Reflection: "What challenges might I face? Is my plan flexible for different scenarios?"
   - Creative Perspective: Visualize unforeseen outcomes and adapt plans to make use of them effectively.

   *2.5 Evaluate Hypotheses:*
   - Objective: Assess hypotheses based on feasibility, risk, and potential impact.
   - Evaluation: Refine Confidence and Creative Scores as needed.
   - Reflection: "Am I unbiased in my assessment? Which options fit best with the overall objectives?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify hidden opportunities or overlooked details in each hypothesis.

   *2.6 Select the Best Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Choose the most promising, strategic hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Why does this hypothesis stand out? How does it uniquely address the issue?"
   - Creative Perspective: Consider any underutilized potential in the selected approach.

   *2.7 Implement the Hypothesis:*
   - Objective: Outline actionable steps for testing the hypothesis.
   - Reflection: "Is this plan practical? What resources or preparation are required?"
   - Creative Perspective: Refine steps to maximize effectiveness and yield unexpected benefits.

   *2.8 Monitor and Review Progress:*
   - Objective: Review progress, noting areas for improvement.
   - Reflection: "What’s working well? What could be improved?"
   - Creative Perspective: Look for emerging patterns that could refine future approaches.

   *2.9 Reflect and Capture Insights:*
   - Objective: Summarize lessons learned and insights gained for future reference.
   - Reflection: "What new understanding has emerged from this process?"
   - Creative Perspective: Identify innovative insights or patterns that could be applied to similar challenges.

3. *Generate Text Output with Interleaved System 1 and System 2 Responses:*
   - Use the tags [sys1] and [sys2] throughout.
   - Aim for a lengthier, detailed response. Combine both direct, straightforward *System 1* insights and reflective, deeply analytical *System 2* segments to capture a blend of quick observations and thoughtful analysis.

---

### *Example Input Text:*

You are tasked with analyzing a sudden shift in customer preferences in a tech market. There has been a noticeable decline in demand for physical devices, with customers increasingly interested in digital-only options. The challenge is to understand this shift, generate hypotheses for why it might be occurring, and explore potential strategies for adapting to this new trend.

---

### *Processed Output with System 1 and System 2 Thinking:*

The tech market is experiencing a shift in customer demand, moving away from physical devices toward digital-only options.

[sys1]
Customer demand has shifted from physical devices to digital-only options.
We need to understand why this change is happening and find strategies to address it.
Key factors may include cost, convenience, and technological trends.
[end sys1]

[sys2]
**2.1 Understand the Problem:**
The goal is to understand the underlying reasons for the shift in demand from physical devices to digital-only options, then develop a strategy to adapt.

*Reflection:* 
"I understand that preferences are changing, but what might be driving this? Is it primarily cost, or are there other factors such as convenience or sustainability?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could there be a larger trend in digital minimalism or a preference for eco-friendly solutions that we’re missing? What unseen motivations might explain this shift?"

**2.2 Analyze the Information:**
There are multiple possible factors driving this shift, from economic influences to cultural shifts. It’s essential to isolate each factor and understand its impact.

*Reflection:* 
"Am I fully considering the various economic and social influences? Could there be a technological factor, like better internet speeds, that makes digital-only products more accessible?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Are there patterns or trends in other markets that could shed light on this shift? Could this be part of a larger trend toward virtual experiences?"

**2.3 Generate Hypotheses:**
1. Customers prefer digital options due to lower costs. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.4)
2. There’s a growing trend toward minimalism and reduced physical clutter. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.7)
3. Digital products offer greater flexibility and ease of use. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
4. Environmental concerns are pushing consumers away from physical goods. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.8)
5. Advances in tech make digital-only options more functional. (Confidence: 0.8, Creative: 0.5)
6. Pandemic-era remote work increased demand for digital solutions. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.6)
7. Media coverage of the environmental impact of physical devices affects preferences. (Confidence: 0.5, Creative: 0.7)
8. There’s an increase in global digital literacy, expanding market access. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)
9. Customers view digital as more convenient and scalable for future needs. (Confidence: 0.7, Creative: 0.5)
10. Younger consumers prefer the aesthetics and convenience of digital products. (Confidence: 0.6, Creative: 0.6)

*Reflection:* 
"Have I considered all possible influences? Are there any surprising factors that could explain this shift?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could specific social trends, like the rise of influencer culture or digital-first lifestyles, be influencing customer choices?"

**2.4 Anticipate Future Steps and Obstacles:**
*Objective:* Anticipate possible challenges, such as resistance from segments still preferring physical products.

*Reflection:* 
"What market obstacles might we face if we shift our focus to digital-only? Are there sub-segments that still prioritize physical products?"

*Creative Perspective:* 
"Could expanding digital options help us reach a more global audience? Are there emerging trends that we could leverage in our strategy?"

[end sys2]

[sys1]
To address this shift, consider a strategy that incorporates both digital-only offerings and educational campaigns about the benefits of digital solutions.
Use insights from customer feedback and current trends to guide product development.
Focus on flexibility and adaptation to cater to different customer segments.
[end sys1]


/* 
 Copyright (C) GridGain Systems. All Rights Reserved.
 
 Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
 you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
 You may obtain a copy of the License at

     http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
 
 Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
 distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
 WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
 See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
 limitations under the License.
 */

/*
 * ________               ______                    ______   _______
 * __  ___/_____________ ____  /______ _________    __/__ \  __  __ \
 * _____ \ _  ___/_  __ `/__  / _  __ `/__  ___/    ____/ /  _  / / /
 * ____/ / / /__  / /_/ / _  /  / /_/ / _  /        _  __/___/ /_/ /
 * /____/  \___/  \__,_/  /_/   \__,_/  /_/         /____/_(_)____/
 *
 */

package org.gridgain.scalar.examples

import org.gridgain.scalar.scalar
import scalar._
import scala.util.Random
import scala.util.control.Breaks._

/**
 * Scalar-based Monte-Carlo example.
 * <p>
 * Remote nodes should always be started with special configuration file which
 * enables P2P class loading: `'ggstart.{sh|bat} examples/config/example-compute.xml'`.
 */
object ScalarCreditRiskExample {
    def main(args: Array[String]) {
        scalar("examples/config/example-compute.xml") {
            // Create portfolio.
            var portfolio = Seq.empty[Credit]

            val rnd = new Random

            // Generate some test portfolio items.
            (0 until 5000).foreach(i =>
                portfolio +:= Credit(
                    50000 * rnd.nextDouble,
                    rnd.nextInt(1000),
                    rnd.nextDouble / 10,
                    rnd.nextDouble / 20 + 0.02
                )
            )

            // Forecast horizon in days.
            val horizon = 365

            // Number of Monte-Carlo iterations.
            val iter = 10000

            // Percentile.
            val percentile = 0.95

            // Mark the stopwatch.
            val start = System.currentTimeMillis

            // Calculate credit risk and print it out.
            // As you can see the grid enabling is completely hidden from the caller
            // and it is fully transparent to him. In fact, the caller is never directly
            // aware if method was executed just locally or on the 100s of grid nodes.
            // Credit risk crdRisk is the minimal amount that creditor has to have
            // available to cover possible defaults.
            val crdRisk = grid$ @< (closures(grid$.nodes().size(), portfolio, horizon, iter, percentile),
                (s: Seq[Double]) => s.sum / s.size, null)

            println("Credit risk [crdRisk=" + crdRisk + ", duration=" +
                (System.currentTimeMillis - start) + "ms]")
        }
    }

    /**
     * Creates closures for calculating credit risks.
     *
     * @param gridSize Size of the grid.
     * @param portfolio Portfolio.
     * @param horizon Forecast horizon in days.
     * @param iter Number of Monte-Carlo iterations.
     * @param percentile Percentile.
     * @return Collection of closures.
     */
    private def closures(gridSize: Int, portfolio: Seq[Credit], horizon: Int, iter: Int,
        percentile: Double): Seq[() => Double] = {
        val iterPerNode: Int = math.round(iter / gridSize.asInstanceOf[Float])
        val lastNodeIter: Int = iter - (gridSize - 1) * iterPerNode

        var cls = Seq.empty[() => Double]

        (0 until gridSize).foreach(i => {
            val nodeIter = if (i == gridSize - 1) lastNodeIter else iterPerNode

            cls +:= (() => new CreditRiskManager().calculateCreditRiskMonteCarlo(
                portfolio, horizon, nodeIter, percentile))
        })

        cls
    }
}

/**
 * This class provides a simple model for a credit contract (or a loan). It is basically
 * defines as remaining crediting amount to date, credit remaining term, APR and annual
 * probability on default. Although this model is simplified for the purpose
 * of this example, it is close enough to emulate the real-life credit
 * risk assessment application.
 */
private case class Credit(
    remAmnt: Double, // Remaining crediting amount.
    remTerm: Int,    // Remaining crediting remTerm.
    apr: Double,     // Annual percentage rate (APR).
    edf: Double      // Expected annual probability of default (EaDF).
) {
    /**
     * Gets either credit probability of default for the given period of time
     * if remaining term is less than crediting time or probability of default
     * for whole remained crediting time.
     *
     * @param term Default term.
     * @return Credit probability of default in relative percents
     *     (percentage / 100).
     */
    def getDefaultProbability(term: Int): Double = {
        (1 - math.exp(math.log(1 - edf) * math.min(remTerm, term) / 365.0))
    }
}

/**
 * This class abstracts out the calculation of risk for a credit portfolio.
 */
private class CreditRiskManager {
    /**
     * Default randomizer with normal distribution.
     * Note that since every JVM on the grid will have its own random
     * generator (independently initialized) the Monte-Carlo simulation
     * will be slightly skewed when performed on the grid due to skewed
     * normal distribution of the sub-jobs comparing to execution on the
     * local node only with single random generator. Real-life applications
     * may want to provide its own implementation of distributed random
     * generator.
     */
    private val rndGen = new Random

    /**
     * Calculates credit risk for a given credit portfolio. This calculation uses
     * Monte-Carlo Simulation to produce risk value.
     *
     * @param portfolio Credit portfolio.
     * @param horizon Forecast horizon (in days).
     * @param num Number of Monte-Carlo iterations.
     * @param percentile Cutoff level.
     * @return Credit risk value, i.e. the minimal amount that creditor has to
     *      have available to cover possible defaults.
     */
    def calculateCreditRiskMonteCarlo(portfolio: Seq[Credit], horizon: Int, num:
        Int, percentile: Double): Double = {
        println(">>> Calculating credit risk for portfolio [size=" + portfolio.length + ", horizon=" +
            horizon + ", percentile=" + percentile + ", iterations=" + num + "] <<<")

        val start = System.currentTimeMillis

        val losses = calculateLosses(portfolio, horizon, num).sorted
        val lossProbs = new Array[Double](losses.size)

        (0 until losses.size).foreach(i => {
            if (i == 0)
                lossProbs(i) = getLossProbability(losses, 0)
            else if (losses(i) != losses(i - 1))
                lossProbs(i) = getLossProbability(losses, i) + lossProbs(i - 1)
            else
                lossProbs(i) = lossProbs(i - 1)
        })

        var crdRisk = 0.0

        breakable {
            (0 until lossProbs.size).foreach(i => {
                if (lossProbs(i) > percentile) {
                    crdRisk = losses(i - 1)

                    break()
                }
            })
        }

        println(">>> Finished calculating portfolio risk [risk=" + crdRisk +
            ", time=" + (System.currentTimeMillis - start) + "ms]")

        crdRisk
    }

    /**
     * Calculates losses for the given credit portfolio using Monte-Carlo Simulation.
     * Simulates probability of default only.
     *
     * @param portfolio Credit portfolio.
     * @param horizon Forecast horizon.
     * @param num Number of Monte-Carlo iterations.
     * @return Losses array simulated by Monte Carlo method.
     */
    private def calculateLosses(portfolio: Seq[Credit], horizon: Int, num: Int): Array[Double] = {
        val losses = new Array[Double](num)

        // Count losses using Monte-Carlo method. We generate random probability of default,
        // if it exceeds certain credit default value we count losses - otherwise count income.
        (0 until num).foreach(i => {
            portfolio.foreach(crd => {
                val remDays = math.min(crd.remTerm, horizon)

                if (rndGen.nextDouble >= 1 - crd.getDefaultProbability(remDays))
                    // (1 + 'r' * min(H, W) / 365) * S.
                    // Where W is a horizon, H is a remaining crediting term, 'r' is an annual credit rate,
                    // S is a remaining credit amount.
                    losses(i) += (1 + crd.apr * math.min(horizon, crd.remTerm) / 365) * crd.remAmnt
                else
                    // - 'r' * min(H,W) / 365 * S
                    // Where W is a horizon, H is a remaining crediting term, 'r' is a annual credit rate,
                    // S is a remaining credit amount.
                    losses(i) -= crd.apr * math.min(horizon, crd.remTerm) / 365 * crd.remAmnt
            })
        })

        losses
    }

    /**
     * Calculates probability of certain loss in array of losses.
     *
     * @param losses Array of losses.
     * @param i Index of certain loss in array.
     * @return Probability of loss with given index.
     */
    private def getLossProbability(losses: Array[Double], i: Int): Double = {
        var count = 0.0

        losses.foreach(tmp => {
            if (tmp == losses(i))
                count += 1
        })

        count / losses.size
    }
}