Please%20read%20the%20text%20carefully.%20Identify%20the%20main%20topic%20and%20key%20points%20covered%20in%20the%20text.%20%0AWrite%20a%20concise%20summary%20of%20the%20text,%20focusing%20solely%20on%20the%20main%20topic%20and%20key%20points%20you%20identified.%20Your%20output%20should%20contain%20only%20the%20summary%20text%20itself.%20Do%20not%20include%20any%20explanations,%20introduction,%20or%20other%20extraneous%20text.%20The%20summary%20should%20be%20able%20to%20stand%20alone.%0AHere%20is%20the%20text%20to%20summarize:%0A%3Ctext%3E%0A%0ASkip%20to%20main%20content%0AVentureBeat%20Homepage%20.cls-1%7Bfill:%23ed2025;%7D.SiteLogo__v%7Bfill:%23000;%7D%0A%0A%0A%0A%0AGuest%0AAGI%20is%20coming%20faster%20than%20we%20think%20%E2%80%94%20we%20must%20get%20ready%20now%0AGary%20Grossman,%20Edelman%0A@garyg02%0ANovember%2010,%202024%2012:15%20PM%0A%09%09Share%20on%20Facebook%0A%09%09Share%20on%20X%0A%09%09Share%20on%20LinkedIn%0A%0ADall-E%203/Gary%20Grossman%0AJoin%20our%20daily%20and%20weekly%20newsletters%20for%20the%20latest%20updates%20and%20exclusive%20content%20on%20industry-leading%20AI%20coverage.%20Learn%20More%0A%0ALeading%20figures%20in%20AI,%20including%20Anthropic%E2%80%99s%20Dario%20Amodei%20and%20OpenAI%E2%80%99s%20Sam%20Altman,%20suggest%20that%20%E2%80%9Cpowerful%20AI%E2%80%9D%20or%20even%20superintelligence%20could%20appear%20within%20the%20next%20two%20to%2010%20years,%20potentially%20reshaping%20our%20world.%0AIn%20his%20recent%20essay%20Machines%20of%20Loving%20Grace,%20Amodei%20provides%20a%20thoughtful%20exploration%20of%20AI%E2%80%99s%20potential,%20suggesting%20that%20powerful%20AI%20%E2%80%94%20what%20others%20have%20termed%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20(AGI)%20%E2%80%94%20could%20be%20achieved%20as%20early%20as%202026.%20Meanwhile,%20in%20The%20Intelligence%20Age,%20Altman%20writes%20that%20%E2%80%9Cit%20is%20possible%20that%20we%20will%20have%20superintelligence%20in%20a%20few%20thousand%20days,%E2%80%9D%20(or%20by%202034).%20If%20they%20are%20correct,%20sometime%20in%20the%20next%20two%20to%2010%20years,%20the%20world%20will%20dramatically%20change.%0A%0AAs%20leaders%20in%20AI%20research%20and%20development,%20Amodei%20and%20Altman%20are%20at%20the%20forefront%20of%20pushing%20boundaries%20for%20what%20is%20possible,%20making%20their%20insights%20particularly%20influential%20as%20we%20look%20to%20the%20future.%20Amodei%20defines%20powerful%20AI%20as%20%E2%80%9Csmarter%20than%20a%20Nobel%20Prize%20winner%20across%20most%20relevant%20fields%20%E2%80%94%20biology,%20programming,%20math,%20engineering,%20writing%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D%20Altman%20does%20not%20explicitly%20define%20superintelligence%20in%20his%20essay,%20although%20it%20is%20understood%20to%20be%20AI%20systems%20that%20surpass%20human%20intellectual%20capabilities%20across%20all%20domains.%C2%A0%0ANot%20everyone%20shares%20this%20optimistic%20timeline,%20although%20these%20less%20sanguine%20viewpoints%20have%20not%20dampened%20enthusiasm%20among%20tech%20leaders.%20For%20example,%20OpenAI%20co-founder%20Ilya%20Sutskever%20is%20now%20a%20co-founder%20of%20Safe%20Superintelligence%20(SSI),%20a%20startup%20dedicated%20to%20advancing%20AI%20with%20a%20safety-first%20approach.%20When%20announcing%20SSI%20last%20June,%20Sutskever%20said:%20%E2%80%9CWe%20will%20pursue%20safe%20superintelligence%20in%20a%20straight%20shot,%20with%20one%20focus,%20one%20goal%20and%20one%20product.%E2%80%9D%20Speaking%20about%20AI%20advances%20a%20year%20ago%20when%20still%20at%20OpenAI,%20he%20noted:%20%E2%80%9CIt%E2%80%99s%20going%20to%20be%20monumental,%20earth-shattering.%20There%20will%20be%20a%20before%20and%20an%20after.%E2%80%9D%20In%20his%20new%20capacity%20at%20SSI,%20Sutskever%20has%20already%20raised%20a%20billion%20dollars%20to%20fund%20company%20efforts.%0AThese%20forecasts%20align%20with%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20estimate%20that%20AI%20will%20outperform%20all%20of%20humanity%20by%202029.%20Musk%20recently%20said%20that%20AI%20would%20be%20able%20to%20do%20anything%20any%20human%20can%20do%20within%20the%20next%20year%20or%20two.%20He%20added%20that%20AI%20would%20be%20able%20to%20do%20what%20all%20humans%20combined%20can%20do%20in%20a%20further%20three%20years,%20in%202028%20or%202029.%20These%20predictions%20are%20also%20consistent%20with%20the%20long-standing%20view%20from%20futurist%20Ray%20Kurzweil%20that%20AGI%20would%20be%20achieved%20by%202029.%20Kurzweil%20made%20this%20prediction%20as%20far%20back%20as%201995%20and%20wrote%20about%20this%20in%20this%20best-selling%202005%20book,%20%E2%80%9CThe%20Singularity%20Is%20Near.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%0A%0A%3Cdiv%20class%3D%22player-unavailable%22%3E%3Ch1%20class%3D%22message%22%3EAn%20error%20occurred.%3C/h1%3E%3Cdiv%20class%3D%22submessage%22%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DJ-faYgAoshI%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3ETry%20watching%20this%20video%20on%20www.youtube.com%3C/a%3E,%20or%20enable%20JavaScript%20if%20it%20is%20disabled%20in%20your%20browser.%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E%0AFuturist%20Ray%20Kurzweil%20stands%20by%20his%20prediction%20of%20AGI%20by%202029.%0AThe%20imminent%20transformation%0AAs%20we%20are%20on%20the%20brink%20of%20these%20potential%20breakthroughs,%20we%20need%20to%20assess%20whether%20we%20are%20truly%20ready%20for%20this%20transformation.%20Ready%20or%20not,%20if%20these%20predictions%20are%20right,%20a%20fundamentally%20new%20world%20will%20soon%20arrive.%C2%A0%0AA%20child%20born%20today%20could%20enter%20kindergarten%20in%20a%20world%20transformed%20by%20AGI.%20Will%20AI%20caregivers%20be%20far%20behind%3F%20Suddenly,%20the%20futuristic%20vision%20from%20Kazuo%C2%A0Ishiguro%20in%20%E2%80%9CKlara%20and%20the%20Sun%E2%80%9D%20of%20an%20android%20artificial%20friend%20for%20those%20children%20when%20they%20reach%20their%20teenage%20years%20does%20not%20seem%20so%20farfetched.%20The%20prospect%20of%20AI%20companions%20and%20caregivers%20suggests%20a%20world%20with%20profound%20ethical%20and%20societal%20shifts,%20one%20that%20might%20challenge%20our%20existing%20frameworks.%0ABeyond%20companions%20and%20caregivers,%20the%20implications%20of%20these%20technologies%20are%20unprecedented%20in%20human%20history,%20offering%20both%20revolutionary%20promise%20and%20existential%20risk.%20The%20potential%20upsides%20that%20could%20come%20from%20powerful%20AI%20are%20profound.%20Beyond%20robotic%20advances%20this%20could%20include%20developing%20cures%20for%20cancer%20and%20depression%20to%20finally%20achieving%20fusion%20energy.%20Some%20see%20this%20coming%20epoch%20as%20an%20era%20of%20abundance%20with%20people%20having%20new%20opportunities%20for%20creativity%20and%20connection.%20However,%20the%20plausible%20downsides%20are%20equally%20momentous,%20from%20vast%20unemployment%20and%20income%20inequality%20to%20runaway%20autonomous%20weapons.%C2%A0%0AIn%20the%20near%20term,%20MIT%20Sloan%20principal%20research%20scientist%20Andrew%20McAfee%20sees%20AI%20as%20enhancing%20rather%20than%20replacing%20human%20jobs.%20On%20a%20recent%20Pivot%20podcast,%20he%20argued%20that%20AI%20provides%20%E2%80%9Can%20army%20of%20clerks,%20colleagues%20and%20coaches%E2%80%9D%20available%20on%20demand,%20even%20as%20it%20sometimes%20takes%20on%20%E2%80%9Cbig%20chunks%E2%80%9D%20of%20jobs.%C2%A0%0ABut%20this%20measured%20view%20of%20AI%E2%80%99s%20impact%20may%20have%20an%20end%20date.%20Elon%20Musk%20said%20that%20in%20the%20longer%20term,%20%E2%80%9Cprobably%20none%20of%20us%20will%20have%20a%20job.%E2%80%9D%20This%20stark%20contrast%20highlights%20a%20crucial%20point:%20Whatever%20seems%20true%20about%20AI%E2%80%99s%20capabilities%20and%20impacts%20in%202024%20may%20be%20radically%20different%20in%20the%20AGI%20world%20that%20could%20be%20just%20several%20years%20away.%0ATempering%20expectations:%20Balancing%20optimism%20with%20reality%0ADespite%20these%20ambitious%20forecasts,%20not%20everyone%20agrees%20that%20powerful%20AI%20is%20on%20the%20near%20horizon%20or%20that%20its%20effects%20will%20be%20so%20straightforward.%20Deep%20learning%20skeptic%20Gary%20Marcus%20has%20been%20warning%20for%20some%20time%20that%20the%20current%20AI%20technologies%20are%20not%20capable%20of%20AGI,%20arguing%20that%20the%20technology%20lacks%20the%20needed%20deep%20reasoning%20skills.%20He%20famously%20took%20aim%20at%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20recent%20prediction%20of%20AI%20soon%20being%20smarter%20than%20any%20human%20and%20offered%20$1%20million%20to%20prove%20him%20wrong.%0A%0ALinus%20Torvalds,%20creator%20and%20lead%20developer%20of%20the%20Linux%20operating%20system,%20said%20recently%20that%20he%20thought%20AI%20would%20change%20the%20world%20but%20currently%20is%20%E2%80%9C90%25%20marketing%20and%2010%25%20reality.%E2%80%9D%20He%20suggested%20that%20for%20now,%20AI%20may%20be%20more%20hype%20than%20substance.%0APerhaps%20lending%20credence%20to%20Torvald%E2%80%99s%20assertion%20is%20a%20new%20paper%20from%20OpenAI%20that%20shows%20their%20leading%20frontier%20large%20language%20models%20(LLM)%20including%20GPT-4o%20and%20o1%20struggling%20to%20answer%20simple%20questions%20for%20which%20there%20are%20factual%20answers.%20The%20paper%20describes%20a%20new%20%E2%80%9CSimpleQA%E2%80%9D%20benchmark%20%E2%80%9Cto%20measure%20the%20factuality%20of%20language%20models.%E2%80%9D%20The%20best%20performer%20is%20o1-preview,%20but%20it%20produced%20incorrect%20answers%20to%20half%20of%20the%20questions.%C2%A0%0A%0APerformance%20of%20frontier%20LLMs%20on%20new%20SimpleQA%20benchmark%20from%20OpenAI.%20Source:%20Introducing%20SimpleQA.%0ALooking%20ahead:%20Readiness%20for%20the%20AI%20era%0AOptimistic%20predictions%20about%20the%20potential%20of%20AI%20contrast%20with%20the%20technology%E2%80%99s%20present%20state%20as%20shown%20in%20benchmarks%20like%20SimpleQA.%20These%20limitations%20suggest%20that%20while%20the%20field%20is%20progressing%20quickly,%20some%20significant%20breakthroughs%20are%20needed%20to%20achieve%20true%20AGI.%C2%A0%0ANevertheless,%20those%20closest%20to%20the%20developing%20AI%20technology%20foresee%20rapid%20advancement.%20On%20a%20recent%20Hard%20Fork%20podcast,%20OpenAI%E2%80%99s%20former%20senior%20adviser%20for%20AGI%20readiness%20Miles%20Brundage%20said:%20%E2%80%9CI%20think%20most%20people%20who%20know%20what%20they%E2%80%99re%20talking%20about%20agree%20%5BAGI%5D%20will%20go%20pretty%20quickly%20and%20what%20does%20that%20mean%20for%20society%20is%20not%20something%20that%20can%20even%20necessarily%20be%20predicted.%E2%80%9D%20Brundage%20added:%20%E2%80%9CI%20think%20that%20retirement%20will%20come%20for%20most%20people%20sooner%20than%20they%20think%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D%0AAmara%E2%80%99s%20Law,%20coined%20in%201973%20by%20Stanford%E2%80%99s%20Roy%20Amara,%20says%20that%20we%20often%20overestimate%20new%20technology%E2%80%99s%20short-term%20impact%20while%20underestimating%20its%20long-term%20potential.%20While%20AGI%E2%80%99s%20actual%20arrival%20timeline%20may%20not%20match%20the%20most%20aggressive%20predictions,%20its%20eventual%20emergence,%20perhaps%20in%20only%20a%20few%20years,%20could%20reshape%20society%20more%20profoundly%20than%20even%20today%E2%80%99s%20optimists%20envision.%C2%A0%0AHowever,%20the%20gap%20between%20current%20AI%20capabilities%20and%20true%20AGI%20is%20still%20significant.%20Given%20the%20stakes%20involved%20%E2%80%94%20from%20revolutionary%20medical%20breakthroughs%20to%20existential%20risks%20%E2%80%94%20this%20buffer%20is%20valuable.%20It%20offers%20crucial%20time%20to%20develop%20safety%20frameworks,%20adapt%20our%20institutions%20and%20prepare%20for%20a%20transformation%20that%20will%20fundamentally%20alter%20human%20experience.%20The%20question%20is%20not%20only%20when%20AGI%20will%20arrive,%20but%20also%20whether%20we%20will%20be%20ready%20for%20it%20when%20it%20does.%0AGary%20Grossman%20is%20EVP%20of%20technology%20practice%20at%20Edelman%20and%20global%20lead%20of%20the%20Edelman%20AI%20Center%20of%20Excellence.%0ADataDecisionMakers%0AWelcome%20to%20the%20VentureBeat%20community!%0ADataDecisionMakers%20is%20where%20experts,%20including%20the%20technical%20people%20doing%20data%20work,%20can%20share%20data-related%20insights%20and%20innovation.%0AIf%20you%20want%20to%20read%20about%20cutting-edge%20ideas%20and%20up-to-date%20information,%20best%20practices,%20and%20the%20future%20of%20data%20and%20data%20tech,%20join%20us%20at%20DataDecisionMakers.%0AYou%20might%20even%20consider%C2%A0contributing%20an%20article%C2%A0of%20your%20own!%0ARead%20More%20From%20DataDecisionMakers%0A%0A%09%09DataDecisionMakers%0A%09%09Follow%20us%20on%20Facebook%0A%09%09Follow%20us%20on%20X%0A%09%09Follow%20us%20on%20LinkedIn%0A%09%09Follow%20us%20on%20RSS%0A%09%09Press%20Releases%0A%09%09Contact%20Us%0A%09%09Advertise%0A%09%09Share%20a%20News%20Tip%0A%09%09Contribute%20to%20DataDecisionMakers%0A%09%09Privacy%20Policy%0A%09%09Terms%20of%20Service%0A%09%09Do%20Not%20Sell%20My%20Personal%20Information%0A%C2%A9%202024%20VentureBeat.%20All%20rights%20reserved.%0A%0A%0A%0A%3Cimg%20src%3D%22//pixel.quantserve.com/pixel/p-UkS7f9ZMSZ6hP.gif%22%20style%3D%22display:%20none;%22%20border%3D%220%22%20height%3D%221%22%20width%3D%221%22%20alt%3D%22Quantcast%22/%3E%0A%3C/text%3E