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Hey guys

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Credible crypto here

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with a new YouTube video update

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This one is

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I think one that many of you guys

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have been looking forward to

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If you've been following me on Twitter

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then you know that

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for the past week or so

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I've basically been waiting

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to watch developing price action

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before recording a video

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because there's a couple

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of different scenarios in my mind

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that I thought were feasible

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and I wanted to see

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developing price action

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to rule one or the other out

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Of course

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we've been watching price

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moving through this range

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and earlier

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was looking for a move

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up to around 57 to 58K

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and then at that point

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I had two scenarios in my mind

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one which we push higher

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to 60K plus and one

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which we reject at 57 and 58

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and come back down

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And as you can see we've broken

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through the 57 and 58K zone

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and we're now pushing up

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closer to the next area of interest

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which is around 61 to 62 K

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And so that development

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has now allowed me to record this video

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because I've seen what I need

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to see to eliminate the idea

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that we may be rejecting here

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And if we had rejected at 57 and 58K

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there were certain implications

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that that would have the fact

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the fact that we've now broken out

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also has certain implications

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And I'll cover that all in this video

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So today

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I want to talk about

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what the implications are that

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we are rising here

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whether or not

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we're going

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to get another dip to buy

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how deep that dip will go

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and what to look for on the upside

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to get very very bullish here

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So again

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those of you follow me

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you'll recognize this

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tweet that I shared earlier today

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And I said at this stage

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you're climbing higher than expected

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Still expecting another leg down

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Once this move up is complete

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we're leaving behind

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a bunch of untapped liquidity below

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my bet is that liquidity

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is being engineered to be taken after

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I'll explain this as well in the video

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in more depth

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just like we saw the last few times

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within this range

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Next area of interest on

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the upside is 61 and 62K

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Above that 66 to 69K

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is a line in the sand

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Above that we're full bull

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And I said the rise to 61 to 62 K levels

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does change some things

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And this is why I refrained

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from making a video update

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over the last few days

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I was waiting to see if we would climb

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this high or reject before

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And this is kind of the key

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As strange

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as it sounds an earlier rejection

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would have been more bullish

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from my perspective

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We'll elaborate on this

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in the next video update

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And this is what I'm going

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to talk about in this video to start

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before I jump into this

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a quick

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shout out to my sponsors for this Youtube video

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WOOX exchange

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Give them a look

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if you're interested in trading actively

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They have both spot

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and perpetual futures available to

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those that are in accepted jurisdictions

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and it's a fantastic up

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and coming exchange

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and I've been partnered with them

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for six plus months

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At this point

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it is one of the two

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preferred exchanges that I have

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And if you guys do decide

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that you're looking for a new exchange

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to trade on go ahead and check them out

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If you guys use my ref link

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which will be linked in the comments

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will be the pinned comment

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It does help me out

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And so I do appreciate that guys

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If you do enjoy my content

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and you'd like to support

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you can sign up using my ref link

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Also for those of you

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who have been following on Twitter

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you are aware

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that i do do periodic giveaways for my referees

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on any of my partnered exchanges

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So occasionally we'll be giving away

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both cash prizes and physical items

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such as PS5s

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We do have a MacBook Pro giveaway coming up

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directly through WOO

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and details of that

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will be announced shortly

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so keep an eye out for that

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But yeah

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all you need to do to

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participate is sign up using my ref link

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and then make a deposit of $100 in crypto

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or cash

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It doesn't matter

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And that makes you eligible

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for any of these future giveaways

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With that being said guys

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let's jump right into the content here

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So this chart for those of you

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who've been following me

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is of Bitcoin obviously

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And we're in this range

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that I've been monitoring

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for some time now

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Again up here at the highs at 64K

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We talked about why

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you know we were bearish

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looking for a fall back inside this range

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I shared on Twitter

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And you know we did

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get that drop back inside this range

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One of the primary reasons

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why I was expecting this

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sort of a deviation was again

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some of the data

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that we look at on Velo data

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which we'll cover you know later

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in this video

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but also this general pattern

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of this move up

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And we had marked out

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these areas of liquidity

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these marginal higher lows

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Now the first thing to keep in

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mind is that

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you know thus far off of these lows

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what's really important

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is that we have corrective price action

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to the upside okay

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Corrective price action

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meaning non trending price action

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a non trending price action

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means ranging price action

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You only have two kinds of price action

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ranging and trending

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Trending is

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when we're making big moves to the upside

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or the downside

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And we're making new highs or new lows

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repeatedly and kind of

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gaining ground in the upside

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or the downside

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depending on for an uptrend

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or a downtrend

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And ranging price action is basically

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when we're going sideways

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And ranging price action occurs

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when players are establishing positions

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for the next phase of a trend

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So for the next trending movement

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players will establish positions

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within a range

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And then once those players

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have established their positions

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the market begins trending again

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and those players

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that have established positions

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then reap the rewards

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So the entire point of a lot of analysis

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that I do

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is being able to identify

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when we're seeing ranging

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versus trending price action

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because if we can identify

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the start of a new trend

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we can catch a monster move

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We did that back here at 39 to 40 K

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and we caught this monster

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move to the upside

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So again all we're doing here is trying to identify

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another one of those sweet spots

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Another one of those

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low risk high reward entries

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to catch the next

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trending movement to the upside

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Which of course

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if you've been following me

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for any period of time

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you know that I'm expecting 100 K

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plus over the coming months

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So first thing to note

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is that

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typically we look

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for these trending movements

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to start off of key swing lows

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They don't have to

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And I've talked about this

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in the past as well

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It's not a requirement but they often do

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And so the first thing that we look at

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whenever we put in a key swing low is

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is the subsequent move off this low

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Is it a trending move

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or is it a corrective move

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And trending moves as I've explained in

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prior videos

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are basically a series

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of higher highs and higher lows

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or a five wave move

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We call them five waves

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because you have a series of higher

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highs and higher lows

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You have a low

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you have a high

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you have a higher low higher high

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higher low higher high

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When you combine that it equals

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five waves

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That's all we're saying

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It's a way of viewing market structure

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So off of the low that we have right now

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you can see that

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the move up was what we'd call

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a three legged move or a corrective move

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And three legged

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moves are corrective moves

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by their very nature and not impulsive

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They're not trending

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because you don't have a series

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of higher highs and higher lows

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You have a low a high

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a higher low and a higher high

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but you don't have a series

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meaning multiple higher highs

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and higher lows right

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Subsequent higher highs and higher lows

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which makes a trend

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And so even after this stage

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when we've got this three legged move up

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and we got this long correction

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and we started pushing up

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I said look this is corrective

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we're probably going to come back down

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And that's exactly what we did

280
00:06:25,932 --> 00:06:27,499
Now the key here

281
00:06:27,499 --> 00:06:29,799
is that we were already expecting

282
00:06:29,799 --> 00:06:30,166
you know

283
00:06:30,166 --> 00:06:32,199
watching for a potential deviation

284
00:06:32,199 --> 00:06:33,732
somewhere above these highs

285
00:06:33,732 --> 00:06:34,932
But what really sealed the deal

286
00:06:34,932 --> 00:06:38,232
Was this buildup of marginal higher highs here okay

287
00:06:38,232 --> 00:06:39,699
And basically what this is

288
00:06:39,699 --> 00:06:40,466
you can view it

289
00:06:40,466 --> 00:06:41,532
as liquidity

290
00:06:41,532 --> 00:06:43,666
being engineered to the downside okay

291
00:06:43,666 --> 00:06:45,199
What this means is that players

292
00:06:45,199 --> 00:06:46,866
that are entering here on leverage

293
00:06:46,866 --> 00:06:48,466
or are entering in trades

294
00:06:48,466 --> 00:06:49,099
they're typically

295
00:06:49,099 --> 00:06:50,432
placing their stop losses

296
00:06:50,432 --> 00:06:51,932
where below key swing lows

297
00:06:51,932 --> 00:06:52,899
And so what happens here is

298
00:06:52,899 --> 00:06:55,232
you get a series of marginal higher highs

299
00:06:55,232 --> 00:06:57,532
building up a series of higher highs

300
00:06:57,532 --> 00:06:58,199
to a novice

301
00:06:58,199 --> 00:06:59,532
they would think okay this is a trend

302
00:06:59,532 --> 00:07:01,299
We have a higher high a higher low

303
00:07:01,299 --> 00:07:02,966
a higher high a higher low a higher high

304
00:07:02,966 --> 00:07:03,799
And they're thinking wow

305
00:07:03,799 --> 00:07:04,632
we're trending

306
00:07:04,632 --> 00:07:05,899
to those who are more familiar

307
00:07:05,899 --> 00:07:07,666
with you know the type of analysis

308
00:07:07,666 --> 00:07:08,699
that I do you'll understand

309
00:07:08,699 --> 00:07:09,732
that in order for a real

310
00:07:09,732 --> 00:07:10,632
trend to be present

311
00:07:10,632 --> 00:07:11,866
you're not looking for overlapping

312
00:07:11,866 --> 00:07:12,432
price action

313
00:07:12,432 --> 00:07:14,866
You're looking for strong waves

314
00:07:14,866 --> 00:07:15,699
And the higher highs

315
00:07:15,699 --> 00:07:16,532
and the higher lows

316
00:07:16,532 --> 00:07:18,866
should be separated by strong

317
00:07:18,866 --> 00:07:20,632
what we call impulsive movements Right

318
00:07:20,632 --> 00:07:22,766
So very vertical moves

319
00:07:22,766 --> 00:07:24,199
followed by consolidations

320
00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:24,732
or corrections

321
00:07:24,732 --> 00:07:26,132
and then vertical moves

322
00:07:26,132 --> 00:07:27,266
followed by consolidations

323
00:07:27,266 --> 00:07:28,566
and corrections etc etc

324
00:07:28,566 --> 00:07:29,632
So what you have here

325
00:07:29,632 --> 00:07:31,032
despite this looking like okay

326
00:07:31,032 --> 00:07:32,599
well a series of higher

327
00:07:32,599 --> 00:07:33,599
highs and higher lows are

328
00:07:33,599 --> 00:07:35,932
what a novice may think is an uptrend

329
00:07:35,932 --> 00:07:37,932
This is not a proper uptrend

330
00:07:37,932 --> 00:07:38,699
This is not a proper

331
00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:39,766
what we call impulsive move

332
00:07:39,766 --> 00:07:41,432
Rather this is a corrective move

333
00:07:41,432 --> 00:07:43,766
or a ranging move or a choppy move Right

334
00:07:43,766 --> 00:07:45,666
We're overlapping repeatedly

335
00:07:45,666 --> 00:07:45,866
Right?

336
00:07:45,866 --> 00:07:47,132
We are making technically

337
00:07:47,132 --> 00:07:48,332
higher highs and higher lows

338
00:07:48,332 --> 00:07:49,666
But there's all this overlap

339
00:07:49,666 --> 00:07:50,199
which implies

340
00:07:50,199 --> 00:07:51,199
that there's not really strength

341
00:07:51,199 --> 00:07:52,099
behind this move

342
00:07:52,099 --> 00:07:52,566
It's more

343
00:07:52,566 --> 00:07:54,866
so a kind of forced grind to the upside

344
00:07:54,866 --> 00:07:55,899
And why is there a forced

345
00:07:55,899 --> 00:07:57,266
grind to the upside to get people

346
00:07:57,266 --> 00:07:59,332
to long this supposed breakout

347
00:07:59,332 --> 00:08:01,266
And then as people long this breakout

348
00:08:01,266 --> 00:08:01,899
you get people

349
00:08:01,899 --> 00:08:03,799
that are selling into these longs

350
00:08:03,799 --> 00:08:05,032
and then pushing price down

351
00:08:05,032 --> 00:08:06,699
triggering all the stop losses

352
00:08:06,699 --> 00:08:07,899
that are here set by people

353
00:08:07,899 --> 00:08:08,966
that think that we've started

354
00:08:08,966 --> 00:08:09,832
a new trend

355
00:08:09,832 --> 00:08:10,932
So that's the logic behind

356
00:08:10,932 --> 00:08:13,632
watching for these marginal higher highs

357
00:08:13,632 --> 00:08:15,766
In a corrective movement

358
00:08:15,766 --> 00:08:16,499
Okay That's key

359
00:08:16,499 --> 00:08:17,466
Two things you're looking for

360
00:08:17,466 --> 00:08:18,732
marginal higher highs

361
00:08:18,732 --> 00:08:19,132
And you're

362
00:08:19,132 --> 00:08:20,632
looking for corrective price action

363
00:08:20,632 --> 00:08:21,799
If you're getting corrective price action

364
00:08:21,799 --> 00:08:22,732
You’ll know that a correction

365
00:08:22,732 --> 00:08:23,699
is likely coming

366
00:08:23,699 --> 00:08:24,232
That becomes

367
00:08:24,232 --> 00:08:24,799
more likely

368
00:08:24,799 --> 00:08:26,432
when you see these marginal higher highs

369
00:08:26,432 --> 00:08:27,399
being built up

370
00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:29,832
kind of preserving these lows

371
00:08:29,832 --> 00:08:31,732
so that we can quickly run them

372
00:08:31,732 --> 00:08:32,066
and cause

373
00:08:32,066 --> 00:08:33,899
a chain reaction of stop losses

374
00:08:33,899 --> 00:08:35,099
to push price lower

375
00:08:35,099 --> 00:08:36,766
where again buying occurs

376
00:08:36,766 --> 00:08:38,899
So we saw that on this initial move up

377
00:08:38,899 --> 00:08:39,832
And then we came down

378
00:08:39,832 --> 00:08:40,766
And you'll see that

379
00:08:40,766 --> 00:08:42,132
essentially what we're looking for

380
00:08:42,132 --> 00:08:44,099
is price to move below all of these lows

381
00:08:44,099 --> 00:08:45,199
Because you may have some stops

382
00:08:45,199 --> 00:08:46,332
below these initial lows

383
00:08:46,332 --> 00:08:47,299
You may have some stops

384
00:08:47,299 --> 00:08:48,232
before these lows

385
00:08:48,232 --> 00:08:49,932
And those conservative people

386
00:08:49,932 --> 00:08:50,399
that are entering

387
00:08:50,399 --> 00:08:51,199
trades will probably place

388
00:08:51,199 --> 00:08:52,666
stops below these lows Right

389
00:08:52,666 --> 00:08:54,399
Because this is where they envision

390
00:08:54,399 --> 00:08:56,499
being the start of the uptrend Right

391
00:08:56,499 --> 00:08:57,966
And so what you look for then is you

392
00:08:57,966 --> 00:08:59,099
look for price to come back down

393
00:08:59,099 --> 00:09:00,766
and move all the way below the origin

394
00:09:00,766 --> 00:09:02,499
of all these marginal higher highs and higher lows

395
00:09:02,499 --> 00:09:03,666
And that is this level right here

396
00:09:03,666 --> 00:09:04,799
So that's kind of the minimum target

397
00:09:04,799 --> 00:09:06,199
that we look for in terms of downside

398
00:09:06,199 --> 00:09:06,999
As you can see

399
00:09:06,999 --> 00:09:08,366
we got that minimum target

400
00:09:08,366 --> 00:09:09,532
Now what's interesting here

401
00:09:09,532 --> 00:09:11,532
and I pointed this out on Twitter as well

402
00:09:11,532 --> 00:09:12,432
is that we have another key

403
00:09:12,432 --> 00:09:13,766
swing low here right

404
00:09:13,766 --> 00:09:15,432
And you'll see that as we came down

405
00:09:15,432 --> 00:09:16,799
and took all of these built up

406
00:09:16,799 --> 00:09:17,699
higher highs and higher lows

407
00:09:17,699 --> 00:09:18,832
what were we doing?

408
00:09:18,832 --> 00:09:20,832
We were forming another series

409
00:09:20,832 --> 00:09:22,432
of higher highs and higher lows

410
00:09:22,432 --> 00:09:24,466
in almost the exact same fashion here

411
00:09:24,466 --> 00:09:26,332
almost an identical replica

412
00:09:26,332 --> 00:09:27,732
but this time on the downside

413
00:09:27,732 --> 00:09:29,199
And so once again I tweeted

414
00:09:29,199 --> 00:09:30,732
and I called it deja vu

415
00:09:30,732 --> 00:09:31,366
I basically said

416
00:09:31,366 --> 00:09:32,632
we're seeing the exact same thing

417
00:09:32,632 --> 00:09:34,032
here to the downside

418
00:09:34,032 --> 00:09:36,299
Now we've resting liquidity to the upside

419
00:09:36,299 --> 00:09:37,799
and we're looking for a deviation

420
00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:38,466
below the lows

421
00:09:38,466 --> 00:09:39,966
the same way that we got a deviation

422
00:09:39,966 --> 00:09:41,832
above the highs of this key swing high

423
00:09:41,832 --> 00:09:42,966
We're looking for a deviation

424
00:09:42,966 --> 00:09:44,232
below this key Swing low

425
00:09:44,232 --> 00:09:45,199
And then we'll probably

426
00:09:45,199 --> 00:09:46,232
see a reversal back up

427
00:09:46,232 --> 00:09:48,032
to take all of these highs

428
00:09:48,032 --> 00:09:49,866
Take all this liquidity okay

429
00:09:49,866 --> 00:09:50,832
Now at this point

430
00:09:50,832 --> 00:09:51,999
two things could have happened

431
00:09:51,999 --> 00:09:52,632
And you'll see that

432
00:09:52,632 --> 00:09:53,632
as price action has developed

433
00:09:53,632 --> 00:09:55,266
That's exactly what we're now doing

434
00:09:55,266 --> 00:09:55,999
And we've already

435
00:09:55,999 --> 00:09:57,732
almost come and taken right

436
00:09:57,732 --> 00:09:58,566
The minimum target

437
00:09:58,566 --> 00:09:58,932
and as I've said

438
00:09:58,932 --> 00:10:00,899
the minimum target is the origin

439
00:10:00,899 --> 00:10:01,932
of all these series

440
00:10:01,932 --> 00:10:03,132
of higher highs and higher lows

441
00:10:03,132 --> 00:10:04,066
So we're almost there

442
00:10:04,066 --> 00:10:05,499
to that minimum target okay

443
00:10:05,499 --> 00:10:07,599
And at that point the job is done

444
00:10:07,599 --> 00:10:09,032
We've taken the liquidity to the upside

445
00:10:09,032 --> 00:10:09,732
And now we're thinking

446
00:10:09,732 --> 00:10:11,332
okay what's the next move

447
00:10:11,332 --> 00:10:14,166
Now on our way to the upside here

448
00:10:14,166 --> 00:10:15,566
there was two scenarios

449
00:10:15,566 --> 00:10:16,132
I could have played out

450
00:10:16,132 --> 00:10:16,799
And as I mentioned

451
00:10:16,799 --> 00:10:18,532
the start of this video I talked about

452
00:10:18,532 --> 00:10:19,632
how there was potential

453
00:10:19,632 --> 00:10:22,632
for us to reject around this region here

454
00:10:22,832 --> 00:10:23,699
Okay

455
00:10:23,699 --> 00:10:24,666
And if we reject it

456
00:10:24,666 --> 00:10:25,432
around this region here

457
00:10:25,432 --> 00:10:26,166
it meant one thing

458
00:10:26,166 --> 00:10:27,866
If we broke through and headed

459
00:10:27,866 --> 00:10:29,432
for this higher liquidity

460
00:10:29,432 --> 00:10:31,166
it meant a second thing and again

461
00:10:31,166 --> 00:10:32,199
that's why I held off

462
00:10:32,199 --> 00:10:33,432
on making this video

463
00:10:33,432 --> 00:10:34,799
as mentioned at the start of this video

464
00:10:34,799 --> 00:10:35,866
because I wanted to see

465
00:10:35,866 --> 00:10:36,432
if we were going

466
00:10:36,432 --> 00:10:38,166
to reject to this area or continue

467
00:10:38,166 --> 00:10:39,599
up to take all the liquidity

468
00:10:39,599 --> 00:10:40,332
to the upside

469
00:10:40,332 --> 00:10:41,099
As you can see

470
00:10:41,099 --> 00:10:42,432
we did break through this region

471
00:10:42,432 --> 00:10:42,732
We're now

472
00:10:42,732 --> 00:10:43,566
about to take

473
00:10:43,566 --> 00:10:45,532
all the liquidity to the upside

474
00:10:45,532 --> 00:10:47,532
This has a couple of implications

475
00:10:47,532 --> 00:10:48,332
The first thing that

476
00:10:48,332 --> 00:10:49,366
I'd like to point out

477
00:10:49,366 --> 00:10:51,399
is what do we see here

478
00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:52,532
Once again

479
00:10:52,532 --> 00:10:54,432
a series of higher highs and higher lows

480
00:10:54,432 --> 00:10:55,966
and choppy corrective PA

481
00:10:55,966 --> 00:10:57,466
almost exactly identical

482
00:10:57,466 --> 00:10:58,666
to what we saw here

483
00:10:58,666 --> 00:11:00,099
and what we saw here

484
00:11:00,099 --> 00:11:01,999
once again occurring Okay

485
00:11:01,999 --> 00:11:03,132
And so this once again

486
00:11:03,132 --> 00:11:04,499
tells me that this move up

487
00:11:04,499 --> 00:11:06,099
is not impulsive

488
00:11:06,099 --> 00:11:07,965
And it is basically liquidity

489
00:11:07,965 --> 00:11:09,765
being engineered for another dump

490
00:11:09,765 --> 00:11:11,965
Back down to the downside Okay

491
00:11:11,965 --> 00:11:12,732
And depending on

492
00:11:12,732 --> 00:11:13,799
what your stance is here

493
00:11:13,799 --> 00:11:14,832
this is either good news

494
00:11:14,832 --> 00:11:15,665
or bad news right

495
00:11:15,665 --> 00:11:17,232
If you're looking to get position lower

496
00:11:17,232 --> 00:11:18,865
or looking to buy more in a dip

497
00:11:18,865 --> 00:11:20,132
this is great news

498
00:11:20,132 --> 00:11:22,365
If you are tired of the chop

499
00:11:22,365 --> 00:11:23,099
and you're tired of us

500
00:11:23,099 --> 00:11:25,132
going up and down within a range

501
00:11:25,132 --> 00:11:26,232
and you've been waiting for us

502
00:11:26,232 --> 00:11:27,299
to explode to the upside

503
00:11:27,299 --> 00:11:29,132
This may not be the best news

504
00:11:29,132 --> 00:11:30,099
but what I will say

505
00:11:30,099 --> 00:11:31,332
is that if you're patient

506
00:11:31,332 --> 00:11:32,599
the rewards will come

507
00:11:32,599 --> 00:11:33,565
And irrespective

508
00:11:33,565 --> 00:11:34,465
of how long we chop

509
00:11:34,465 --> 00:11:35,265
within this consolidation

510
00:11:35,265 --> 00:11:37,532
as I maintained for a very long time now

511
00:11:37,532 --> 00:11:39,432
the next move is a massive breakout

512
00:11:39,432 --> 00:11:40,199
to the upside

513
00:11:40,199 --> 00:11:42,099
Basically like what we saw here

514
00:11:42,099 --> 00:11:43,999
And again just for some perspective

515
00:11:43,999 --> 00:11:45,632
the move that we're seeing now

516
00:11:45,632 --> 00:11:47,832
if you think this is taking too long

517
00:11:47,832 --> 00:11:49,232
I just want to show you something here

518
00:11:49,232 --> 00:11:50,399
Our last consolidation

519
00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:51,865
back here at 30K prior

520
00:11:51,865 --> 00:11:53,532
to this run up to 70K

521
00:11:53,532 --> 00:11:55,199
took this amount of time

522
00:11:55,199 --> 00:11:56,432
The current correction

523
00:11:56,432 --> 00:11:57,799
as it stands

524
00:11:57,799 --> 00:11:58,332
has taken

525
00:11:58,332 --> 00:12:01,099
just shy of that amount of time Okay

526
00:12:01,099 --> 00:12:02,699
So this correction

527
00:12:02,699 --> 00:12:04,332
while it seems long and it seems crazy

528
00:12:04,332 --> 00:12:05,699
it seems never ending

529
00:12:06,065 --> 00:12:07,832
for all intents and purposes

530
00:12:07,832 --> 00:12:10,832
is nothing out of the ordinary or nothing

531
00:12:10,865 --> 00:12:12,832
that should cause any sort of concern

532
00:12:12,832 --> 00:12:15,832
because we saw the exact same thus far

533
00:12:15,899 --> 00:12:18,065
Length of consolidation at 30K

534
00:12:18,065 --> 00:12:19,332
before we went 2X

535
00:12:19,332 --> 00:12:20,899
within a number of months Right?

536
00:12:20,899 --> 00:12:22,832
So don't freak yourself out by thinking

537
00:12:22,832 --> 00:12:24,932
that this long consolidation is bearish

538
00:12:24,932 --> 00:12:26,332
or that this long consolidation

539
00:12:26,332 --> 00:12:27,665
is a sign of weakness

540
00:12:27,665 --> 00:12:28,932
or that this long consolidation

541
00:12:28,932 --> 00:12:29,765
is a negative thing

542
00:12:29,765 --> 00:12:30,199
It's not

543
00:12:30,199 --> 00:12:31,532
It's exactly what happened here

544
00:12:31,532 --> 00:12:33,532
Consolidation that precedes expansion

545
00:12:33,532 --> 00:12:34,099
And thus far

546
00:12:34,099 --> 00:12:34,965
it's taking about

547
00:12:34,965 --> 00:12:36,065
the same amount of time

548
00:12:36,065 --> 00:12:37,865
Okay So nothing to be concerned about

549
00:12:37,865 --> 00:12:39,132
Now that being said

550
00:12:39,132 --> 00:12:39,999
let's talk about what

551
00:12:39,999 --> 00:12:41,165
the implications are here

552
00:12:41,165 --> 00:12:41,432
Again

553
00:12:41,432 --> 00:12:42,965
I said in my tweet recalling

554
00:12:42,965 --> 00:12:43,865
back to the original tweet

555
00:12:43,865 --> 00:12:45,232
that I shared earlier in this video

556
00:12:45,232 --> 00:12:45,865
As strange

557
00:12:45,865 --> 00:12:47,332
as it sounds an earlier rejection

558
00:12:47,332 --> 00:12:48,165
would have been more bullish

559
00:12:48,165 --> 00:12:48,899
from my perspective

560
00:12:48,899 --> 00:12:50,432
Well let's elaborate on that right now

561
00:12:50,432 --> 00:12:55,399
Why would a rejection at 58 to 59K

562
00:12:55,399 --> 00:12:57,032
Why would that have been more bullish

563
00:12:57,032 --> 00:12:58,065
than what we're seeing now

564
00:12:58,065 --> 00:13:00,599
So as we know guys typically

565
00:13:00,599 --> 00:13:02,365
when we're completing a correction

566
00:13:02,365 --> 00:13:03,832
or a major consolidation phase

567
00:13:03,832 --> 00:13:05,099
there's typically two ways

568
00:13:05,099 --> 00:13:07,599
that these things end and conclude

569
00:13:07,599 --> 00:13:08,932
Two ways that they conclude

570
00:13:08,932 --> 00:13:10,565
before the next major

571
00:13:10,565 --> 00:13:12,699
move to the upside begins Okay

572
00:13:12,699 --> 00:13:13,732
The first way

573
00:13:13,732 --> 00:13:15,865
which some of you may be familiar with

574
00:13:15,865 --> 00:13:16,732
or may have heard this term

575
00:13:16,732 --> 00:13:17,732
before is what we call

576
00:13:17,732 --> 00:13:18,999
a V-shape reversal

577
00:13:18,999 --> 00:13:21,565
and a V-shape reversal basically means

578
00:13:21,565 --> 00:13:22,899
what it sounds like

579
00:13:22,899 --> 00:13:24,699
and that is that we get some sort

580
00:13:24,699 --> 00:13:25,832
of pretty significant

581
00:13:25,832 --> 00:13:27,632
mass liquidation event

582
00:13:27,632 --> 00:13:28,565
or big flush

583
00:13:28,565 --> 00:13:29,632
out of leverage

584
00:13:29,632 --> 00:13:31,132
and price almost immediately

585
00:13:31,132 --> 00:13:32,732
rebounds from that point

586
00:13:32,732 --> 00:13:34,932
and then continues to climb near

587
00:13:34,932 --> 00:13:36,632
vertically into a recovery

588
00:13:36,632 --> 00:13:37,899
And we call that a V-shaped recovery

589
00:13:37,899 --> 00:13:39,432
We saw this during the Covid crash

590
00:13:39,432 --> 00:13:40,632
For those that remember that

591
00:13:40,632 --> 00:13:41,832
both in traditional markets

592
00:13:41,832 --> 00:13:42,899
and on Bitcoin

593
00:13:42,899 --> 00:13:44,999
that was a typical V-shaped recovery

594
00:13:44,999 --> 00:13:46,432
Actually we have one here

595
00:13:46,432 --> 00:13:48,799
that I recall the top of my head on the SPX

596
00:13:49,032 --> 00:13:49,499
right here

597
00:13:49,499 --> 00:13:50,499
This is

598
00:13:50,499 --> 00:13:52,165
a typical V-shape recovery

599
00:13:52,165 --> 00:13:53,432
on the higher timeframes

600
00:13:53,432 --> 00:13:55,832
This is what we call

601
00:13:55,832 --> 00:13:57,365
a more of a V-shaped recovery

602
00:13:57,365 --> 00:13:59,165
which is like a very aggressive drop

603
00:13:59,165 --> 00:14:00,865
and then almost an immediate rebound

604
00:14:00,865 --> 00:14:02,532
and recovery and continuation

605
00:14:02,532 --> 00:14:04,399
We saw one here on the SPX

606
00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:06,432
actually the bigger one right here

607
00:14:06,432 --> 00:14:07,432
This was a little bit more drawn out

608
00:14:07,432 --> 00:14:09,732
I'd say this is more of a consolidation

609
00:14:09,732 --> 00:14:12,065
But we saw a very aggressive one here

610
00:14:12,065 --> 00:14:13,499
We saw a V-shaped recovery here

611
00:14:13,499 --> 00:14:14,632
a V-shaped recovery here

612
00:14:14,632 --> 00:14:15,099
And again

613
00:14:15,099 --> 00:14:15,765
the most notable

614
00:14:15,765 --> 00:14:17,299
the one that I was referring to earlier

615
00:14:17,299 --> 00:14:18,399
the Covid crash

616
00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,965
is the V-shape recovery here Okay

617
00:14:20,965 --> 00:14:22,865
So the point being that

618
00:14:22,865 --> 00:14:24,699
this is one way that we can see a bottom

619
00:14:24,699 --> 00:14:25,632
And then the second way

620
00:14:25,632 --> 00:14:26,965
that we typically see a bottom before

621
00:14:26,965 --> 00:14:30,165
expansion is the other form of bottoming

622
00:14:30,165 --> 00:14:32,732
which is a more of a lengthier process

623
00:14:32,732 --> 00:14:34,532
which we call like forming a base

624
00:14:34,532 --> 00:14:35,865
or accumulation base Okay

625
00:14:35,865 --> 00:14:37,132
So you have two options

626
00:14:37,132 --> 00:14:38,232
You have a V reversal

627
00:14:38,232 --> 00:14:40,332
or you have an accumulation base Okay

628
00:14:40,332 --> 00:14:43,299
And so the idea was that

629
00:14:43,299 --> 00:14:45,699
an accumulation base basically just means

630
00:14:45,699 --> 00:14:47,565
sort of a reduction in volatility

631
00:14:47,565 --> 00:14:48,965
a tightening of consolidation

632
00:14:48,965 --> 00:14:50,499
in a tighter and tighter shape

633
00:14:50,499 --> 00:14:52,232
until we get a very aggressive

634
00:14:52,232 --> 00:14:54,199
and abrupt rip out of that consolidation

635
00:14:54,199 --> 00:14:55,499
Now this entire thing

636
00:14:55,499 --> 00:14:56,232
as I've been saying

637
00:14:56,232 --> 00:14:58,265
is a larger accumulation structure

638
00:14:58,265 --> 00:14:59,565
but for a typical

639
00:14:59,565 --> 00:15:00,732
non V-reversal

640
00:15:00,732 --> 00:15:02,099
we would expect instead of like

641
00:15:02,099 --> 00:15:03,565
what I've depicted here

642
00:15:03,565 --> 00:15:04,699
we would expect something

643
00:15:04,699 --> 00:15:06,232
that takes a little bit more time

644
00:15:06,232 --> 00:15:08,365
and kind of bores people to death

645
00:15:08,365 --> 00:15:09,965
And that is something that we call

646
00:15:09,965 --> 00:15:10,932
an accumulation base

647
00:15:10,932 --> 00:15:11,799
which again

648
00:15:11,799 --> 00:15:14,765
is some form of tighter consolidation

649
00:15:14,765 --> 00:15:17,565
And then a very aggressive rally Right

650
00:15:17,565 --> 00:15:18,132
So again

651
00:15:18,132 --> 00:15:19,499
you either get a larger

652
00:15:19,499 --> 00:15:21,365
longer accumulation base

653
00:15:21,365 --> 00:15:23,332
or you get that V-reversal

654
00:15:23,332 --> 00:15:24,432
which is a dip like this

655
00:15:24,432 --> 00:15:26,832
And then almost an immediate rally Okay

656
00:15:26,832 --> 00:15:28,199
So those are the two main options

657
00:15:28,199 --> 00:15:29,899
that we look for in any search

658
00:15:29,899 --> 00:15:31,499
for any sort of reversal

659
00:15:31,499 --> 00:15:33,032
And the reason that I said that

660
00:15:33,032 --> 00:15:34,899
a rejection here in the red zone

661
00:15:34,899 --> 00:15:36,299
would have been more bullish

662
00:15:36,299 --> 00:15:37,765
I'm going to explain to you right now

663
00:15:37,765 --> 00:15:38,932
is because if

664
00:15:38,932 --> 00:15:41,132
we had rejected in the red zone

665
00:15:41,132 --> 00:15:42,965
then my hope was that

666
00:15:42,965 --> 00:15:44,399
a rejection here in red

667
00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:45,865
would be setting us up

668
00:15:45,865 --> 00:15:47,732
for a little accumulation

669
00:15:47,732 --> 00:15:49,632
base here over the coming days

670
00:15:49,632 --> 00:15:50,832
And that would set us up

671
00:15:50,832 --> 00:15:52,799
for the expansion

672
00:15:52,799 --> 00:15:54,999
by probably the end of this month

673
00:15:54,999 --> 00:15:56,532
Okay so that would be another week

674
00:15:56,532 --> 00:15:58,132
or two of consolidation

675
00:15:58,132 --> 00:15:58,665
As you can see

676
00:15:58,665 --> 00:16:00,265
we'd be having a tightening

677
00:16:00,265 --> 00:16:01,365
consolidation structure

678
00:16:01,365 --> 00:16:02,132
a tightening wedge

679
00:16:02,132 --> 00:16:03,132
whatever you want to call it

680
00:16:03,132 --> 00:16:04,099
You can call it a triangle

681
00:16:04,099 --> 00:16:06,065
you can call it a wedge you can call it

682
00:16:06,065 --> 00:16:06,832
whatever you want

683
00:16:06,832 --> 00:16:07,332
The point

684
00:16:07,332 --> 00:16:08,632
being that we have a constriction

685
00:16:08,632 --> 00:16:10,599
of volatility into an apex

686
00:16:10,599 --> 00:16:12,132
And then we would get ideally

687
00:16:12,132 --> 00:16:13,265
a very aggressive rip

688
00:16:13,265 --> 00:16:13,799
to the upside

689
00:16:13,799 --> 00:16:14,665
which would basically be

690
00:16:14,665 --> 00:16:17,765
the start of our impulse to 100K plus

691
00:16:17,899 --> 00:16:19,199
the start of this type

692
00:16:19,199 --> 00:16:20,432
of up only price action

693
00:16:20,432 --> 00:16:21,732
that we've been talking about

694
00:16:21,732 --> 00:16:23,599
So that is why I said that

695
00:16:23,599 --> 00:16:24,865
a rejection here would have been ideal

696
00:16:24,865 --> 00:16:25,032
Okay

697
00:16:25,032 --> 00:16:26,065
Now what does it mean

698
00:16:26,065 --> 00:16:27,765
that we've broken above this region?

699
00:16:27,765 --> 00:16:28,299
Okay

700
00:16:28,299 --> 00:16:29,965
If we had rejected at 58K

701
00:16:29,965 --> 00:16:32,132
I had very very strong conviction

702
00:16:32,132 --> 00:16:33,499
that these lows at 49K

703
00:16:33,499 --> 00:16:35,765
would not be retested Okay

704
00:16:35,765 --> 00:16:38,199
If we rejected at 58 K

705
00:16:38,199 --> 00:16:38,865
I was

706
00:16:38,865 --> 00:16:40,032
pretty convinced

707
00:16:40,032 --> 00:16:42,398
that our bottom was in here at 49 K

708
00:16:42,398 --> 00:16:43,932
and that we were essentially

709
00:16:43,932 --> 00:16:45,832
forming a smaller accumulation base

710
00:16:45,832 --> 00:16:46,965
I should say within a larger

711
00:16:46,965 --> 00:16:47,732
accumulation base

712
00:16:47,732 --> 00:16:49,598
You can view this entire structure

713
00:16:49,598 --> 00:16:51,432
as a larger range

714
00:16:51,432 --> 00:16:52,065
And then we have

715
00:16:52,065 --> 00:16:52,898
what would have been you know

716
00:16:52,898 --> 00:16:54,732
the deviation below the range

717
00:16:54,732 --> 00:16:56,698
And then we had a reclaim and a higher low

718
00:16:56,698 --> 00:16:57,432
and then some further

719
00:16:57,432 --> 00:16:58,732
consolidation at the lows

720
00:16:58,732 --> 00:17:00,165
and then a rip out of this range

721
00:17:00,165 --> 00:17:00,398
Okay

722
00:17:00,398 --> 00:17:03,498
So that would have been ideal okay

723
00:17:03,832 --> 00:17:04,532
And I say that

724
00:17:04,532 --> 00:17:06,165
because it would give us

725
00:17:06,165 --> 00:17:08,332
a quicker breakout to the upside

726
00:17:08,332 --> 00:17:10,832
It would mean limited downside okay

727
00:17:10,832 --> 00:17:11,265
Meaning

728
00:17:11,265 --> 00:17:12,432
the bottom would have already been in

729
00:17:12,432 --> 00:17:13,665
here at 49 K

730
00:17:13,665 --> 00:17:15,332
And it meant that we would probably start

731
00:17:15,332 --> 00:17:16,698
impulsing by the end of this month

732
00:17:16,698 --> 00:17:17,465
Okay

733
00:17:17,465 --> 00:17:18,965
now I'm not saying that we can't

734
00:17:18,965 --> 00:17:19,265
you know

735
00:17:19,265 --> 00:17:20,298
wrap this consolidation

736
00:17:20,298 --> 00:17:21,132
up in the next week or two

737
00:17:21,132 --> 00:17:22,598
I'm not saying that it's impossible now

738
00:17:22,598 --> 00:17:23,598
but I'm saying that the odds

739
00:17:23,598 --> 00:17:24,865
are probably higher

740
00:17:24,865 --> 00:17:26,198
If we had rejected here

741
00:17:26,198 --> 00:17:27,698
and started tightening

742
00:17:27,698 --> 00:17:29,232
and reducing volatility

743
00:17:29,232 --> 00:17:30,498
and constricting right

744
00:17:30,665 --> 00:17:31,498
now instead of that

745
00:17:31,498 --> 00:17:32,698
we've broken above this level

746
00:17:32,698 --> 00:17:34,032
We're probably going to head to

747
00:17:34,032 --> 00:17:35,032
you know 62K

748
00:17:35,032 --> 00:17:35,998
or at least above these highs

749
00:17:35,998 --> 00:17:37,098
here at 61K

750
00:17:37,098 --> 00:17:38,498
And that just means

751
00:17:38,498 --> 00:17:39,865
that things have gotten

752
00:17:39,865 --> 00:17:41,832
a little bit more drawn out okay

753
00:17:41,832 --> 00:17:43,232
But I think that means is I'm

754
00:17:43,232 --> 00:17:45,065
no longer as confident

755
00:17:45,065 --> 00:17:47,298
in this being our absolute bottom

756
00:17:47,298 --> 00:17:48,165
Because now

757
00:17:48,165 --> 00:17:49,298
I view this

758
00:17:49,298 --> 00:17:50,465
because of the price movement

759
00:17:50,465 --> 00:17:51,965
that we're now getting to the upside

760
00:17:51,965 --> 00:17:54,732
Now I view this as a move

761
00:17:54,732 --> 00:17:55,898
up to these range highs

762
00:17:55,898 --> 00:17:57,632
that we previously deviated above

763
00:17:57,632 --> 00:17:58,332
and in the same way

764
00:17:58,332 --> 00:17:59,565
that we look for an accumulation

765
00:17:59,565 --> 00:18:01,632
base with a triple tap at the lows

766
00:18:01,632 --> 00:18:03,332
which is basically a low

767
00:18:03,332 --> 00:18:04,498
a swing low put in

768
00:18:04,498 --> 00:18:06,132
and then a lower low put in

769
00:18:06,132 --> 00:18:07,665
and then a higher low put in

770
00:18:07,665 --> 00:18:08,765
We call that a triple tap

771
00:18:08,765 --> 00:18:09,665
the same way that we look

772
00:18:09,665 --> 00:18:10,498
for one at the bottom

773
00:18:10,498 --> 00:18:12,132
We can also look for one here

774
00:18:12,132 --> 00:18:13,632
using this deviation

775
00:18:13,632 --> 00:18:14,298
And so now what

776
00:18:14,298 --> 00:18:15,365
we seem to have

777
00:18:15,365 --> 00:18:17,465
is a potential triple tap forming here

778
00:18:17,465 --> 00:18:19,798
But this time it's forming to the upside

779
00:18:19,798 --> 00:18:20,532
And typically

780
00:18:20,532 --> 00:18:22,232
when you get this sort of a triple tap

781
00:18:22,232 --> 00:18:22,765
as we call it

782
00:18:22,765 --> 00:18:24,332
or this sort of accumulation

783
00:18:24,332 --> 00:18:25,732
top or bottom

784
00:18:25,732 --> 00:18:27,132
the minimum target

785
00:18:27,132 --> 00:18:28,598
is the lows of the range Okay

786
00:18:28,598 --> 00:18:29,332
So what we have here

787
00:18:29,332 --> 00:18:30,832
now is the range identified

788
00:18:30,832 --> 00:18:31,998
with the key swing low

789
00:18:31,998 --> 00:18:33,298
We have a move up a deviation

790
00:18:33,298 --> 00:18:34,898
above the highs fall back inside

791
00:18:34,898 --> 00:18:36,132
Now we're looking for a lower

792
00:18:36,132 --> 00:18:37,165
high here okay

793
00:18:37,165 --> 00:18:37,932
Instead of

794
00:18:37,932 --> 00:18:38,965
if this were reversed

795
00:18:38,965 --> 00:18:41,232
we'd be looking at a key low put in

796
00:18:41,232 --> 00:18:43,898
We're looking at a deviation Right

797
00:18:43,898 --> 00:18:45,565
And then we're looking for a higher low

798
00:18:45,565 --> 00:18:46,832
into that deviation

799
00:18:46,832 --> 00:18:48,732
for a move to the highs

800
00:18:48,732 --> 00:18:49,932
to target these highs

801
00:18:49,932 --> 00:18:51,132
Now again this is an inverse chart

802
00:18:51,132 --> 00:18:53,232
So really what we're seeing now is again

803
00:18:53,232 --> 00:18:54,065
that same idea

804
00:18:54,065 --> 00:18:55,065
But now we're looking at it

805
00:18:55,065 --> 00:18:56,932
from the opposite perspective

806
00:18:56,932 --> 00:18:58,432
And so what this means then is it

807
00:18:58,432 --> 00:18:59,598
increases in my opinion

808
00:18:59,598 --> 00:19:00,865
the probability that we may

809
00:19:00,865 --> 00:19:02,532
see sub 49K again

810
00:19:02,532 --> 00:19:04,732
depending on what your position is here

811
00:19:04,732 --> 00:19:05,832
this is either a blessing

812
00:19:05,832 --> 00:19:06,898
or it's a curse Right?

813
00:19:06,898 --> 00:19:07,898
I will say for those

814
00:19:07,898 --> 00:19:09,498
that are upset about this it's

815
00:19:09,498 --> 00:19:10,632
not a bad thing that we see

816
00:19:10,632 --> 00:19:11,698
sub 49K again

817
00:19:11,698 --> 00:19:12,965
Okay do not think that

818
00:19:12,965 --> 00:19:13,698
just because we wick

819
00:19:13,698 --> 00:19:14,898
below these lows again

820
00:19:14,898 --> 00:19:15,798
it's the end of the world

821
00:19:15,798 --> 00:19:16,598
Do not think that it's

822
00:19:16,598 --> 00:19:17,598
the start of a bear market

823
00:19:17,598 --> 00:19:18,098
It changes

824
00:19:18,098 --> 00:19:19,632
nothing on the higher timeframes

825
00:19:19,632 --> 00:19:20,998
as I've previously said

826
00:19:20,998 --> 00:19:22,265
in my last video

827
00:19:22,265 --> 00:19:24,998
I talked about how this is a massive

828
00:19:24,998 --> 00:19:26,765
high time frame area of demand Right?

829
00:19:26,765 --> 00:19:28,098
The most significant high time

830
00:19:28,098 --> 00:19:29,032
frame level on the chart

831
00:19:29,032 --> 00:19:31,198
a logical place to see a reversal from

832
00:19:31,198 --> 00:19:32,698
And in that same video again

833
00:19:32,698 --> 00:19:33,465
this is the last video

834
00:19:33,465 --> 00:19:34,265
that I showed on Bitcoin

835
00:19:34,265 --> 00:19:35,232
If I recall correctly

836
00:19:35,232 --> 00:19:36,598
we talked about this weekly level

837
00:19:36,598 --> 00:19:37,132
right above it

838
00:19:37,132 --> 00:19:38,532
that thus far is held price right

839
00:19:38,532 --> 00:19:39,465
We front ran

840
00:19:39,465 --> 00:19:40,665
the biggest

841
00:19:40,665 --> 00:19:42,598
most logical place for a reversal

842
00:19:42,598 --> 00:19:43,798
And instead we were holding

843
00:19:43,798 --> 00:19:45,432
this kind of like

844
00:19:45,432 --> 00:19:47,098
intermediate level right above it

845
00:19:47,098 --> 00:19:48,598
Okay all this means

846
00:19:48,598 --> 00:19:49,298
if we see a wick

847
00:19:49,298 --> 00:19:50,465
below 49K is

848
00:19:50,465 --> 00:19:51,898
it means that we test

849
00:19:51,898 --> 00:19:53,065
the most logical place

850
00:19:53,065 --> 00:19:54,132
to see a full on reversal

851
00:19:54,132 --> 00:19:55,998
So it's not bad by any means

852
00:19:55,998 --> 00:19:56,865
It's not unhealthy

853
00:19:56,865 --> 00:19:58,732
It's not an issue by any means

854
00:19:58,732 --> 00:19:59,632
It does mean

855
00:19:59,632 --> 00:20:01,298
if you approach this the right way

856
00:20:01,298 --> 00:20:03,698
you may get some fantastic

857
00:20:03,698 --> 00:20:05,398
buys on Bitcoin which is in my eyes

858
00:20:05,398 --> 00:20:06,132
a very good thing

859
00:20:06,132 --> 00:20:07,065
Okay so

860
00:20:07,065 --> 00:20:08,665
keep that in mind as we approach

861
00:20:08,665 --> 00:20:11,265
you know these local highs of 62, 63K

862
00:20:11,265 --> 00:20:12,565
So with that being said

863
00:20:12,565 --> 00:20:13,932
the fact that we've now broken up

864
00:20:13,932 --> 00:20:15,732
above that 58K rejection

865
00:20:15,732 --> 00:20:18,165
basically long story short means that

866
00:20:18,165 --> 00:20:20,632
instead of forming a little base here

867
00:20:20,632 --> 00:20:21,598
that I earlier

868
00:20:21,598 --> 00:20:22,532
would have liked to have seen

869
00:20:22,532 --> 00:20:23,665
or would have expected

870
00:20:23,665 --> 00:20:24,998
instead of doing this

871
00:20:24,998 --> 00:20:27,132
because we rejected here at 58K

872
00:20:27,132 --> 00:20:29,498
we now may be coming down

873
00:20:29,498 --> 00:20:31,532
and taking these lows

874
00:20:31,532 --> 00:20:33,665
and then seeing one of two things Right

875
00:20:33,665 --> 00:20:34,832
And those two things are

876
00:20:34,832 --> 00:20:36,065
what I previously talked about

877
00:20:36,065 --> 00:20:37,532
either a V-shape reversal

878
00:20:37,532 --> 00:20:39,832
after these lows at 49K are taken Okay

879
00:20:39,832 --> 00:20:41,498
So either something like this

880
00:20:41,498 --> 00:20:42,298
with continuation

881
00:20:42,298 --> 00:20:43,332
or the other option

882
00:20:43,332 --> 00:20:45,832
is we're making a larger accumulation

883
00:20:45,832 --> 00:20:46,865
base or a triple tap

884
00:20:46,865 --> 00:20:48,432
like we saw up at these highs

885
00:20:48,432 --> 00:20:49,165
down at these lows

886
00:20:49,165 --> 00:20:50,632
And in that case what would happen is

887
00:20:50,632 --> 00:20:52,932
we dip into this high timeframe zone

888
00:20:52,932 --> 00:20:54,165
We would bounce

889
00:20:54,165 --> 00:20:55,065
and then we would see

890
00:20:55,065 --> 00:20:56,465
a little bit of a retest here

891
00:20:56,465 --> 00:20:57,498
for a higher low

892
00:20:57,498 --> 00:20:59,532
And then we would impulse okay

893
00:20:59,532 --> 00:21:00,732
So these are the scenarios

894
00:21:00,732 --> 00:21:01,932
that come into play

895
00:21:01,932 --> 00:21:03,732
because of this larger

896
00:21:03,732 --> 00:21:04,698
rise to the upside

897
00:21:04,698 --> 00:21:07,565
That is the main thing that has changed

898
00:21:07,565 --> 00:21:08,665
over the last couple of days

899
00:21:08,665 --> 00:21:10,098
based on developing price action

900
00:21:10,098 --> 00:21:10,965
Another thing

901
00:21:10,965 --> 00:21:14,098
that I would like to add on again

902
00:21:14,098 --> 00:21:15,398
I share with you guys

903
00:21:15,398 --> 00:21:17,265
multiple probabilities and possibilities

904
00:21:17,265 --> 00:21:18,398
because there's always multiple

905
00:21:18,398 --> 00:21:19,832
possibilities and probabilities

906
00:21:19,832 --> 00:21:21,965
I cannot predict the future

907
00:21:21,965 --> 00:21:23,832
but what I can do is map out

908
00:21:23,832 --> 00:21:25,865
what I think are reasonable

909
00:21:25,865 --> 00:21:27,432
courses of price action

910
00:21:27,432 --> 00:21:28,298
so that if

911
00:21:28,298 --> 00:21:29,265
and when they do appear

912
00:21:29,265 --> 00:21:30,798
you guys are prepared for them

913
00:21:30,798 --> 00:21:32,098
and you don't freak out

914
00:21:32,098 --> 00:21:33,032
And I can also tell you

915
00:21:33,032 --> 00:21:34,565
what I believe to be

916
00:21:34,565 --> 00:21:35,665
out of the various scenarios

917
00:21:35,665 --> 00:21:36,698
that I show you

918
00:21:36,698 --> 00:21:37,732
the most logical

919
00:21:37,732 --> 00:21:39,398
or the most likely to happen

920
00:21:39,398 --> 00:21:40,132
Okay that doesn't mean

921
00:21:40,132 --> 00:21:41,265
that it's guaranteed to happen

922
00:21:41,265 --> 00:21:43,032
That just means that my confidence level

923
00:21:43,032 --> 00:21:45,165
is the highest for a X scenario

924
00:21:45,165 --> 00:21:47,198
to happen out of X Y and Z scenarios

925
00:21:47,198 --> 00:21:48,865
I will always tell you what I think

926
00:21:48,865 --> 00:21:50,365
makes the most sense to occur

927
00:21:50,365 --> 00:21:52,432
Out of the few options that I may show

928
00:21:52,432 --> 00:21:53,532
any option that I show

929
00:21:53,532 --> 00:21:55,198
I think is generally reasonable

930
00:21:55,198 --> 00:21:57,132
but some are in my opinion

931
00:21:57,132 --> 00:21:58,732
a lot more likely to occur than others

932
00:21:58,732 --> 00:22:00,332
I want to add that I've had some people

933
00:22:00,332 --> 00:22:02,432
point out or kind of ask me

934
00:22:02,432 --> 00:22:04,332
if something like this is possible

935
00:22:04,332 --> 00:22:06,132
They're viewing this as potentially

936
00:22:06,132 --> 00:22:07,965
a corrective triangular structure

937
00:22:07,965 --> 00:22:09,232
which for those of you

938
00:22:09,232 --> 00:22:11,132
who are familiar with the corrective

939
00:22:11,132 --> 00:22:12,098
triangular structures

940
00:22:12,098 --> 00:22:13,032
the idea is that

941
00:22:13,032 --> 00:22:15,231
we get a series of five legs

942
00:22:15,231 --> 00:22:16,865
We call them an ABCDE

943
00:22:16,865 --> 00:22:19,465
but basically we have multiple taps

944
00:22:19,465 --> 00:22:19,898
of the highs

945
00:22:19,898 --> 00:22:21,265
and lows of a consolidating structure

946
00:22:21,265 --> 00:22:21,931
like this

947
00:22:21,931 --> 00:22:23,365
And what this

948
00:22:23,365 --> 00:22:25,465
then leads to is a breakout

949
00:22:25,465 --> 00:22:27,331
after the completion of the last leg

950
00:22:27,331 --> 00:22:28,365
The last leg doesn't need

951
00:22:28,365 --> 00:22:29,531
to tap the trend line Okay

952
00:22:29,531 --> 00:22:30,798
So in this scenario

953
00:22:30,798 --> 00:22:31,098
what you

954
00:22:31,098 --> 00:22:33,431
then expect is a rejection here

955
00:22:33,431 --> 00:22:34,931
and then us to come down

956
00:22:34,931 --> 00:22:36,265
and then us to kind of consolidate

957
00:22:36,265 --> 00:22:36,698
over here

958
00:22:36,698 --> 00:22:38,031
and then actually rip up from here

959
00:22:38,031 --> 00:22:40,898
This would be the most bullish scenario

960
00:22:40,898 --> 00:22:41,498
You kind of keep

961
00:22:41,498 --> 00:22:42,131
the idea of

962
00:22:42,131 --> 00:22:43,698
like a tightening constriction

963
00:22:43,698 --> 00:22:46,631
here and a triple tap base forming here

964
00:22:46,631 --> 00:22:47,465
It would keep that alive

965
00:22:47,465 --> 00:22:48,698
and this would be incredibly bullish

966
00:22:48,698 --> 00:22:49,798
This is the most bullish scenario

967
00:22:49,798 --> 00:22:50,931
that exists right now

968
00:22:50,931 --> 00:22:53,231
But I will say that I don't find it

969
00:22:53,231 --> 00:22:54,431
to be the most likely

970
00:22:54,431 --> 00:22:55,165
And again

971
00:22:55,165 --> 00:22:57,131
the reason for that is because of the way

972
00:22:57,131 --> 00:22:59,698
that we've moved up here again leaving

973
00:22:59,698 --> 00:23:01,231
all these untapped higher lows

974
00:23:01,231 --> 00:23:01,998
And I'm going to zoom in here

975
00:23:01,998 --> 00:23:03,098
in a second to show you

976
00:23:03,098 --> 00:23:04,298
that there's a lot more detail to this

977
00:23:04,298 --> 00:23:05,031
than meets the eye

978
00:23:05,031 --> 00:23:06,198
But the point is

979
00:23:06,198 --> 00:23:08,331
that while this scenario looks like

980
00:23:08,331 --> 00:23:09,765
you know something that you can argue

981
00:23:09,765 --> 00:23:10,998
is realistic or feasible

982
00:23:10,998 --> 00:23:11,765
which I'm not saying

983
00:23:11,765 --> 00:23:12,231
it's not

984
00:23:12,231 --> 00:23:13,331
I don't think it's high

985
00:23:13,331 --> 00:23:15,598
probability at all for me personally

986
00:23:15,598 --> 00:23:16,098
Okay

987
00:23:16,098 --> 00:23:18,165
If when we get down to 56K

988
00:23:18,165 --> 00:23:19,598
we see some massive absorption

989
00:23:19,598 --> 00:23:21,231
or signs of buyers stepping in here

990
00:23:21,231 --> 00:23:22,898
instead of waiting for the flush

991
00:23:22,898 --> 00:23:24,598
or if we get some sort of a flush here

992
00:23:24,598 --> 00:23:26,031
and then see absorption and start

993
00:23:26,031 --> 00:23:27,531
seeing a squeeze back to the upside

994
00:23:27,531 --> 00:23:27,831
Okay

995
00:23:27,831 --> 00:23:29,298
then maybe we're getting that scenario

996
00:23:29,298 --> 00:23:30,331
But as it stands

997
00:23:30,331 --> 00:23:31,931
based on everything that I'm seeing now

998
00:23:31,931 --> 00:23:32,898
I don't find this

999
00:23:32,898 --> 00:23:34,565
to be a very likely scenario

1000
00:23:34,565 --> 00:23:35,298
but I'm sharing it

1001
00:23:35,298 --> 00:23:36,965
because I've seen people ask me

1002
00:23:36,965 --> 00:23:38,231
about my thoughts on that

1003
00:23:38,231 --> 00:23:38,998
With that being said

1004
00:23:38,998 --> 00:23:39,731
I'm going to zoom in here

1005
00:23:39,731 --> 00:23:40,131
I'm going to show you

1006
00:23:40,131 --> 00:23:41,031
a little bit more detail

1007
00:23:41,031 --> 00:23:41,931
about what's going on here

1008
00:23:41,931 --> 00:23:42,931
in the lower timeframes

1009
00:23:42,931 --> 00:23:44,231
And really kind of get you guys

1010
00:23:44,231 --> 00:23:45,698
to understand how to view these things

1011
00:23:45,698 --> 00:23:47,031
Again the triangular idea

1012
00:23:47,031 --> 00:23:48,065
it's the most bullish of them all

1013
00:23:48,065 --> 00:23:49,165
but I don't really think it's feasible

1014
00:23:49,165 --> 00:23:49,898
or realistic

1015
00:23:49,898 --> 00:23:50,531
It could happen

1016
00:23:50,531 --> 00:23:51,331
but I just don't give it

1017
00:23:51,331 --> 00:23:52,498
a very high probability at all

1018
00:23:52,498 --> 00:23:53,231
More likely

1019
00:23:53,231 --> 00:23:53,998
I think that we're headed

1020
00:23:53,998 --> 00:23:55,498
for these lows at this stage

1021
00:23:55,498 --> 00:23:56,665
especially if we tag

1022
00:23:56,665 --> 00:23:58,331
you know 62, 63K plus

1023
00:23:58,331 --> 00:23:58,965
It's also worth

1024
00:23:58,965 --> 00:23:59,665
noting that

1025
00:23:59,665 --> 00:24:00,765
the line in the sand

1026
00:24:00,765 --> 00:24:02,998
for bears is getting above

1027
00:24:02,998 --> 00:24:04,931
You'll see these repeated higher highs

1028
00:24:04,931 --> 00:24:06,131
that have been building

1029
00:24:06,131 --> 00:24:07,931
And so anything above 70K

1030
00:24:07,931 --> 00:24:08,731
we can't be full bull

1031
00:24:08,731 --> 00:24:09,498
until we get above that

1032
00:24:09,498 --> 00:24:10,898
So as I previously said

1033
00:24:10,898 --> 00:24:11,831
this is the next area of interest

1034
00:24:11,831 --> 00:24:13,331
at 62K in my tweet right

1035
00:24:13,331 --> 00:24:14,965
two areas of interest 62K

1036
00:24:14,965 --> 00:24:16,531
above that 69 to 70K

1037
00:24:16,531 --> 00:24:17,765
which is this region here

1038
00:24:17,765 --> 00:24:19,131
Until we get above that

1039
00:24:19,131 --> 00:24:20,631
we can't become full bull

1040
00:24:20,631 --> 00:24:21,565
It is what it is

1041
00:24:21,565 --> 00:24:22,098
Guys back

1042
00:24:22,098 --> 00:24:23,231
when we were trading here at 70

1043
00:24:23,231 --> 00:24:25,098
69 70K the same thing happened

1044
00:24:25,098 --> 00:24:26,165
I literally said

1045
00:24:26,165 --> 00:24:27,098
you need to be cautious here

1046
00:24:27,098 --> 00:24:28,365
because I think we're going to dump

1047
00:24:28,365 --> 00:24:29,598
And I got met with

1048
00:24:29,598 --> 00:24:30,865
you know people saying you're crazy

1049
00:24:30,865 --> 00:24:31,331
We're at the highs

1050
00:24:31,331 --> 00:24:32,298
We're going to break through

1051
00:24:32,298 --> 00:24:33,565
And then we broke down Right

1052
00:24:33,565 --> 00:24:34,531
So the key is

1053
00:24:34,531 --> 00:24:36,365
just because we get close to these highs

1054
00:24:36,365 --> 00:24:38,131
just because we're close to the highs

1055
00:24:38,131 --> 00:24:39,965
doesn't mean that we should be

1056
00:24:39,965 --> 00:24:40,931
overly bullish

1057
00:24:40,931 --> 00:24:41,365
Where

1058
00:24:41,365 --> 00:24:42,165
we've seen repeated

1059
00:24:42,165 --> 00:24:43,731
rejections and lower highs

1060
00:24:43,731 --> 00:24:45,198
every time we get to this region okay

1061
00:24:45,198 --> 00:24:46,365
If we get to this region it's

1062
00:24:46,365 --> 00:24:48,031
technically the most likely place

1063
00:24:48,031 --> 00:24:48,831
to see a rejection

1064
00:24:48,831 --> 00:24:50,398
So don't get uber bullish

1065
00:24:50,398 --> 00:24:51,465
at the most likely place

1066
00:24:51,465 --> 00:24:51,731
to see

1067
00:24:51,731 --> 00:24:53,031
a rejection just like people did

1068
00:24:53,031 --> 00:24:55,498
here here here here and here

1069
00:24:55,498 --> 00:24:55,931
Okay

1070
00:24:55,931 --> 00:24:56,831
each of those times

1071
00:24:56,831 --> 00:24:58,631
we're able to see data on Velo data

1072
00:24:58,631 --> 00:25:00,098
which I use frequently

1073
00:25:00,098 --> 00:25:01,098
That told us that

1074
00:25:01,098 --> 00:25:02,598
this move was likely to be faded

1075
00:25:02,598 --> 00:25:04,031
and we called it as we saw it

1076
00:25:04,031 --> 00:25:05,331
and it worked out well for us

1077
00:25:05,331 --> 00:25:06,731
So again keep in mind

1078
00:25:06,731 --> 00:25:07,631
just because we climb

1079
00:25:07,631 --> 00:25:08,831
higher than expected here

1080
00:25:08,831 --> 00:25:10,698
doesn't mean we flip massively bullish

1081
00:25:10,698 --> 00:25:11,831
without seeing more data

1082
00:25:11,831 --> 00:25:12,931
to support the idea

1083
00:25:12,931 --> 00:25:14,265
Now with that being said we've

1084
00:25:14,265 --> 00:25:15,431
marked off our

1085
00:25:15,431 --> 00:25:16,365
you know line in the sand

1086
00:25:16,365 --> 00:25:17,431
the two areas of resistance

1087
00:25:17,431 --> 00:25:18,165
to the upside

1088
00:25:18,165 --> 00:25:20,998
Let's go ahead and zoom in a little bit

1089
00:25:20,998 --> 00:25:22,298
And let me show you guys

1090
00:25:22,298 --> 00:25:22,998
what I'm seeing here

1091
00:25:22,998 --> 00:25:23,798
on the lower timeframes

1092
00:25:23,798 --> 00:25:25,198
which makes me more confident

1093
00:25:25,198 --> 00:25:25,998
that we're probably going

1094
00:25:25,998 --> 00:25:26,565
to reject here

1095
00:25:26,565 --> 00:25:27,365
shortly

1096
00:25:27,365 --> 00:25:27,931
and come down

1097
00:25:27,931 --> 00:25:29,065
and take up

1098
00:25:29,065 --> 00:25:30,198
all these built up lows

1099
00:25:30,198 --> 00:25:31,898
down to at least 52.4K

1100
00:25:31,898 --> 00:25:33,531
most likely in my opinion

1101
00:25:33,531 --> 00:25:35,231
just under 49K for a wick

1102
00:25:35,231 --> 00:25:36,231
Let's go ahead and zoom in here

1103
00:25:36,231 --> 00:25:37,198
So I'm gonna go to the 15 minute

1104
00:25:37,198 --> 00:25:38,031
time frame

1105
00:25:38,031 --> 00:25:39,431
And I want to show you guys something

1106
00:25:39,431 --> 00:25:42,465
So within this series of higher highs and higher lows

1107
00:25:42,465 --> 00:25:43,865
you can actually see that

1108
00:25:43,865 --> 00:25:46,131
almost entirely on this move up

1109
00:25:46,131 --> 00:25:46,998
We've had repeated

1110
00:25:46,998 --> 00:25:48,898
bouts of higher lows forming

1111
00:25:48,898 --> 00:25:49,831
So we have liquidity

1112
00:25:49,831 --> 00:25:51,465
resting below all these lows okay

1113
00:25:51,465 --> 00:25:54,331
We also had these lows built up here

1114
00:25:54,331 --> 00:25:55,831
Right here you can see

1115
00:25:55,831 --> 00:25:57,298
higher low higher low higher low

1116
00:25:57,298 --> 00:25:59,298
So you can say there is liquidity untapped

1117
00:25:59,298 --> 00:26:00,765
Liquidity below those lows

1118
00:26:00,765 --> 00:26:01,898
And so basically

1119
00:26:01,898 --> 00:26:02,898
you have untapped liquidity

1120
00:26:02,898 --> 00:26:05,131
on like every frickin time frame here

1121
00:26:05,131 --> 00:26:05,998
I can show you more

1122
00:26:05,998 --> 00:26:08,165
So we have this move up here

1123
00:26:08,165 --> 00:26:10,331
We have these lows right here

1124
00:26:10,331 --> 00:26:11,931
Again more untapped liquidity

1125
00:26:11,931 --> 00:26:14,231
Then when we go and zoom in even more

1126
00:26:14,231 --> 00:26:14,765
you can go down

1127
00:26:14,765 --> 00:26:16,331
to like the five minute time frame

1128
00:26:16,331 --> 00:26:17,065
Once again

1129
00:26:17,065 --> 00:26:20,065
you can see here untapped liquidity

1130
00:26:20,198 --> 00:26:21,098
below these lows

1131
00:26:21,098 --> 00:26:21,765
So anytime you have

1132
00:26:21,765 --> 00:26:23,465
these like marginal higher lows

1133
00:26:23,465 --> 00:26:24,465
that present themselves

1134
00:26:24,465 --> 00:26:25,931
you can almost guarantee

1135
00:26:25,931 --> 00:26:27,898
that you have stop losses resting below

1136
00:26:27,898 --> 00:26:29,465
this low this low or this low

1137
00:26:29,465 --> 00:26:30,731
And the reason that we consider

1138
00:26:30,731 --> 00:26:32,631
these like marginal higher lows

1139
00:26:32,631 --> 00:26:33,831
so significant

1140
00:26:33,831 --> 00:26:35,065
is because typically

1141
00:26:35,065 --> 00:26:37,131
when one of these marginal higher lows

1142
00:26:37,131 --> 00:26:39,165
gets triggered because of the stop losses

1143
00:26:39,165 --> 00:26:40,698
that are usually resting below

1144
00:26:40,698 --> 00:26:43,731
when these stops of this marginal higher

1145
00:26:43,731 --> 00:26:44,565
low get triggered

1146
00:26:44,565 --> 00:26:45,465
the sell pressure

1147
00:26:45,465 --> 00:26:48,231
sometimes pushes us down to these lows

1148
00:26:48,231 --> 00:26:49,831
And then these stops get triggered

1149
00:26:49,831 --> 00:26:50,598
And that sometimes

1150
00:26:50,598 --> 00:26:52,031
will push us down to these lows

1151
00:26:52,031 --> 00:26:54,098
And so we get cascading liquidations

1152
00:26:54,098 --> 00:26:56,765
or a cascading trigger of stop losses

1153
00:26:56,765 --> 00:26:59,565
And what that looks like in practice is

1154
00:26:59,565 --> 00:27:00,931
when we get that on

1155
00:27:00,931 --> 00:27:02,231
you know these small time frames

1156
00:27:02,231 --> 00:27:04,365
and then these larger time frames

1157
00:27:04,365 --> 00:27:06,331
and then the largest time frame

1158
00:27:06,331 --> 00:27:08,065
what that looks like oftentimes

1159
00:27:08,065 --> 00:27:08,831
depending on

1160
00:27:08,831 --> 00:27:10,698
how much leverage is in the system

1161
00:27:10,698 --> 00:27:12,731
is a very aggressive

1162
00:27:12,731 --> 00:27:13,831
flush to the downside

1163
00:27:13,831 --> 00:27:14,598
It can happen

1164
00:27:14,598 --> 00:27:16,498
almost in one big candle

1165
00:27:16,498 --> 00:27:18,865
like we've seen here You can see here

1166
00:27:18,865 --> 00:27:19,365
Look at this

1167
00:27:19,365 --> 00:27:21,065
Actually this is a perfect example

1168
00:27:21,065 --> 00:27:21,731
Check this out

1169
00:27:21,731 --> 00:27:23,731
So we had all these built up higher lows

1170
00:27:23,731 --> 00:27:24,831
As soon as we hit the first one

1171
00:27:24,831 --> 00:27:25,398
right here

1172
00:27:25,398 --> 00:27:28,431
we melted all the way down and got here

1173
00:27:28,431 --> 00:27:29,931
We took out these lows these lows

1174
00:27:29,931 --> 00:27:30,431
these lows

1175
00:27:30,431 --> 00:27:31,731
these lows these lows

1176
00:27:31,731 --> 00:27:32,998
these lows these lows these lows

1177
00:27:32,998 --> 00:27:34,598
all in one single candle Okay

1178
00:27:34,598 --> 00:27:35,365
So that's the idea

1179
00:27:35,365 --> 00:27:36,198
and why we

1180
00:27:36,198 --> 00:27:37,798
care about these marginal higher lows

1181
00:27:37,798 --> 00:27:39,431
Because there's liquidity resting below

1182
00:27:39,431 --> 00:27:40,865
And as stops start getting triggered

1183
00:27:40,865 --> 00:27:42,565
it causes a liquidation cascade

1184
00:27:42,565 --> 00:27:44,131
And then that triggers more stops

1185
00:27:44,131 --> 00:27:45,165
And before you know

1186
00:27:45,165 --> 00:27:46,698
we're at the bottom of the range again

1187
00:27:46,698 --> 00:27:48,364
And so you have not only on

1188
00:27:48,364 --> 00:27:49,098
the highest of time

1189
00:27:49,098 --> 00:27:49,931
frames you can see

1190
00:27:49,931 --> 00:27:52,064
the very obvious repeated

1191
00:27:52,064 --> 00:27:53,598
higher lows in a corrective manner

1192
00:27:53,598 --> 00:27:54,964
You have these little pockets

1193
00:27:54,964 --> 00:27:56,464
of more liquidity

1194
00:27:56,464 --> 00:27:57,364
on the lower time frames

1195
00:27:57,364 --> 00:27:58,431
that we can identify

1196
00:27:58,431 --> 00:27:59,598
literally all the way up

1197
00:27:59,598 --> 00:28:01,664
one here one here one here

1198
00:28:01,664 --> 00:28:02,431
And so when price

1199
00:28:02,431 --> 00:28:03,931
eventually does stall out

1200
00:28:03,931 --> 00:28:04,831
whether it be here

1201
00:28:04,831 --> 00:28:06,064
or whether it be higher up

1202
00:28:06,064 --> 00:28:07,498
and selling does start to occur

1203
00:28:07,498 --> 00:28:10,864
we get very rapid price depreciation

1204
00:28:11,131 --> 00:28:12,631
And so that's the logic behind

1205
00:28:12,631 --> 00:28:12,864
you know

1206
00:28:12,864 --> 00:28:14,464
expecting a liquidation

1207
00:28:14,464 --> 00:28:16,231
flush or a flush to the downside

1208
00:28:16,231 --> 00:28:18,931
due to the buildup of these repeated

1209
00:28:18,931 --> 00:28:19,698
higher lows

1210
00:28:19,698 --> 00:28:21,298
and the buildup of this liquidity

1211
00:28:21,298 --> 00:28:22,464
or engineered liquidity

1212
00:28:22,464 --> 00:28:23,031
I like to call it

1213
00:28:23,031 --> 00:28:25,064
because you have someone essentially

1214
00:28:25,064 --> 00:28:26,898
walking price up with limit bids

1215
00:28:26,898 --> 00:28:27,131
And I

1216
00:28:27,131 --> 00:28:29,098
tweeted about that on Twitter as well

1217
00:28:29,098 --> 00:28:30,931
walking price up with limit bids

1218
00:28:30,931 --> 00:28:33,098
preventing these levels from getting run

1219
00:28:33,098 --> 00:28:34,364
and forcing price higher

1220
00:28:34,364 --> 00:28:35,531
And when that entity decides

1221
00:28:35,531 --> 00:28:36,698
that he's had his fill

1222
00:28:36,698 --> 00:28:38,831
or now wants to get cheaper Bitcoin

1223
00:28:38,831 --> 00:28:40,498
they will stop walking price up

1224
00:28:40,498 --> 00:28:41,731
They'll stop placing bids

1225
00:28:41,731 --> 00:28:43,064
underneath price

1226
00:28:43,064 --> 00:28:44,731
And we'll start pushing down

1227
00:28:44,731 --> 00:28:46,698
And then everyone that's been buying

1228
00:28:46,698 --> 00:28:48,431
or longing this on leverage

1229
00:28:48,431 --> 00:28:49,264
all of a sudden finds

1230
00:28:49,264 --> 00:28:50,431
their stop loss is getting triggered

1231
00:28:50,431 --> 00:28:51,431
And before you know it again

1232
00:28:51,431 --> 00:28:52,398
we're at the bottom of the range

1233
00:28:52,398 --> 00:28:54,431
So with all this being said

1234
00:28:54,431 --> 00:28:56,398
the point being made here is

1235
00:28:56,398 --> 00:28:57,664
we are not out of the woods

1236
00:28:57,664 --> 00:28:58,698
And as much as

1237
00:28:58,698 --> 00:29:01,098
I would love for us to go higher

1238
00:29:01,098 --> 00:29:02,664
and break out tomorrow and see

1239
00:29:02,664 --> 00:29:05,064
100K within two months it's

1240
00:29:05,064 --> 00:29:06,164
not about what I want it's

1241
00:29:06,164 --> 00:29:07,564
about what the market gives us

1242
00:29:07,564 --> 00:29:08,531
Some of you may remember that

1243
00:29:08,531 --> 00:29:09,631
I placed options

1244
00:29:09,631 --> 00:29:12,664
bets for 80K Bitcoin by the end of July

1245
00:29:12,664 --> 00:29:13,331
and August

1246
00:29:13,331 --> 00:29:15,931
Those options bet expired worthless

1247
00:29:15,931 --> 00:29:16,964
Believe it or not

1248
00:29:16,964 --> 00:29:18,598
I would have loved to have seen

1249
00:29:18,598 --> 00:29:20,564
increasing price action to the upside

1250
00:29:20,564 --> 00:29:21,598
because I would have made money

1251
00:29:21,598 --> 00:29:22,898
if we were able to get to 80K

1252
00:29:22,898 --> 00:29:25,164
by the end of August but we did it

1253
00:29:25,164 --> 00:29:26,964
And so even when we were at the highs

1254
00:29:26,964 --> 00:29:28,331
here at 70K

1255
00:29:28,331 --> 00:29:28,964
or at the highs

1256
00:29:28,964 --> 00:29:30,198
here at 69K

1257
00:29:30,198 --> 00:29:31,064
I was not screaming

1258
00:29:31,064 --> 00:29:32,198
from the rooftops to buy

1259
00:29:32,198 --> 00:29:32,698
I was saying

1260
00:29:32,698 --> 00:29:33,698
we're probably going to correct

1261
00:29:33,698 --> 00:29:34,798
as much as I hate to say it

1262
00:29:34,798 --> 00:29:36,831
because it delays the move to the upside

1263
00:29:36,831 --> 00:29:38,864
which means that my call options

1264
00:29:38,864 --> 00:29:40,164
are going to be less profitable

1265
00:29:40,164 --> 00:29:41,498
or will not be profitable at all

1266
00:29:41,498 --> 00:29:42,831
As much as I hate to say it

1267
00:29:42,831 --> 00:29:43,898
we're probably going to go down again

1268
00:29:43,898 --> 00:29:46,264
And so I repeatedly called for rejections

1269
00:29:46,264 --> 00:29:47,331
at these highs based on the data

1270
00:29:47,331 --> 00:29:48,331
that I saw at the time

1271
00:29:48,331 --> 00:29:49,131
despite the fact

1272
00:29:49,131 --> 00:29:49,931
that it was in my interest

1273
00:29:49,931 --> 00:29:51,564
for Bitcoin to go up faster

1274
00:29:51,564 --> 00:29:53,131
So it's not about what I want

1275
00:29:53,131 --> 00:29:54,298
it's about what we get

1276
00:29:54,298 --> 00:29:55,764
And so right now what we're getting

1277
00:29:55,764 --> 00:29:57,398
you know unfortunately or fortunately

1278
00:29:57,398 --> 00:29:57,731
depending on

1279
00:29:57,731 --> 00:29:58,631
how you look at it

1280
00:29:58,631 --> 00:30:00,198
is we're getting corrective price action

1281
00:30:00,198 --> 00:30:02,131
to the upside on very

1282
00:30:02,131 --> 00:30:03,431
very high open interest

1283
00:30:03,431 --> 00:30:06,064
with a series of marginally higher lows

1284
00:30:06,064 --> 00:30:07,164
It's looking like we're going to get

1285
00:30:07,164 --> 00:30:08,264
at least one more a wipe

1286
00:30:08,264 --> 00:30:09,698
down to the downside Okay

1287
00:30:09,698 --> 00:30:10,564
With that being said

1288
00:30:10,564 --> 00:30:11,731
guys let's take a quick

1289
00:30:11,731 --> 00:30:13,564
look at Velo data

1290
00:30:13,564 --> 00:30:14,498
Actually you know what?

1291
00:30:14,498 --> 00:30:16,364
I talked a lot about Velo data

1292
00:30:16,364 --> 00:30:17,498
in my recent tweets

1293
00:30:17,498 --> 00:30:18,998
And I talked about

1294
00:30:18,998 --> 00:30:20,964
how this incrementally

1295
00:30:20,964 --> 00:30:22,298
higher high price action

1296
00:30:22,298 --> 00:30:23,731
the reason why it looks corrective

1297
00:30:23,731 --> 00:30:25,131
I talked about how you can identify

1298
00:30:25,131 --> 00:30:25,964
when you're seeing impulsive

1299
00:30:25,964 --> 00:30:27,364
versus corrective price action

1300
00:30:27,364 --> 00:30:28,398
So this tweet here

1301
00:30:28,398 --> 00:30:29,664
I talked about how to identify

1302
00:30:29,664 --> 00:30:30,931
impulsive versus corrective moves

1303
00:30:30,931 --> 00:30:32,898
or a hint on how to identify them

1304
00:30:32,898 --> 00:30:34,331
And I specifically used Velo data

1305
00:30:34,331 --> 00:30:35,164
to point out

1306
00:30:35,164 --> 00:30:36,831
why this move up looks corrective

1307
00:30:36,831 --> 00:30:37,664
And it supports the idea

1308
00:30:37,664 --> 00:30:38,164
that we're going to get

1309
00:30:38,164 --> 00:30:39,031
a correction down

1310
00:30:39,031 --> 00:30:39,231
Right

1311
00:30:39,231 --> 00:30:40,598
So aside from the naked price

1312
00:30:40,598 --> 00:30:41,631
action chart telling us

1313
00:30:41,631 --> 00:30:42,131
that it's likely

1314
00:30:42,131 --> 00:30:43,331
that these lows get taken

1315
00:30:43,331 --> 00:30:44,231
I also explained why

1316
00:30:44,231 --> 00:30:45,431
it's likely based on the data

1317
00:30:45,431 --> 00:30:46,631
that we're seeing here in Velo data

1318
00:30:46,631 --> 00:30:47,664
Go ahead and look at that

1319
00:30:47,664 --> 00:30:48,698
I was going to cover it in the video

1320
00:30:48,698 --> 00:30:49,731
but I already covered it on Twitter

1321
00:30:49,731 --> 00:30:50,898
so there's no point me repeating myself

1322
00:30:50,898 --> 00:30:52,164
So go ahead and look at that on Twitter

1323
00:30:52,164 --> 00:30:53,231
and it'll explain this

1324
00:30:53,231 --> 00:30:54,531
My last few tweets today

1325
00:30:54,531 --> 00:30:56,698
I've talked a lot about the ideas

1326
00:30:56,698 --> 00:30:58,098
that I'm presenting here in this video

1327
00:30:58,098 --> 00:30:59,698
This video kind of just summarizes

1328
00:30:59,698 --> 00:31:00,998
most of those ideas and adds

1329
00:31:00,998 --> 00:31:02,331
a little bit more context to them

1330
00:31:02,331 --> 00:31:03,498
But go back and look at my recent

1331
00:31:03,498 --> 00:31:05,431
tweets to get an idea of more depth

1332
00:31:05,431 --> 00:31:06,264
behind this stuff

1333
00:31:06,264 --> 00:31:08,498
But again what we're looking for now

1334
00:31:08,498 --> 00:31:10,531
is two potential options

1335
00:31:10,531 --> 00:31:12,664
Right? Rejection here most likely

1336
00:31:12,664 --> 00:31:14,964
And then a wick below 49K ideally

1337
00:31:14,964 --> 00:31:15,764
And then either we're going

1338
00:31:15,764 --> 00:31:18,264
to get a very sharp aggressive V-reversal

1339
00:31:18,264 --> 00:31:20,598
Or we might get a little bit of range

1340
00:31:20,598 --> 00:31:21,298
forming here

1341
00:31:21,298 --> 00:31:21,698
depending on

1342
00:31:21,698 --> 00:31:22,231
if we get again

1343
00:31:22,231 --> 00:31:23,031
a V-reversal

1344
00:31:23,031 --> 00:31:26,964
or a more gradual accumulation base right

1345
00:31:26,964 --> 00:31:28,231
That is the bottom line here

1346
00:31:28,231 --> 00:31:28,764
Most likely

1347
00:31:28,764 --> 00:31:30,064
I think we're going to reject by the time

1348
00:31:30,064 --> 00:31:32,364
we get to 62K this initial region

1349
00:31:32,364 --> 00:31:33,964
if we get past that right

1350
00:31:33,964 --> 00:31:37,431
then potentially a push to 66 to 70K

1351
00:31:37,664 --> 00:31:38,164
But again

1352
00:31:38,164 --> 00:31:39,764
not until we clear these highs

1353
00:31:39,764 --> 00:31:41,464
And really in an impulsive manner

1354
00:31:41,464 --> 00:31:43,064
doesn’t make sense to get super bullish

1355
00:31:43,064 --> 00:31:44,931
Let's quickly talk about CRV here guys

1356
00:31:44,931 --> 00:31:46,298
I showed another chart on Twitter

1357
00:31:46,298 --> 00:31:48,664
actually showing an alternate scenario

1358
00:31:48,664 --> 00:31:50,098
This is the one that I was mapping out

1359
00:31:50,098 --> 00:31:51,031
just earlier today

1360
00:31:51,031 --> 00:31:52,264
But this is the scenario

1361
00:31:52,264 --> 00:31:53,464
that I shared on Twitter

1362
00:31:53,464 --> 00:31:54,698
And both of these are possible

1363
00:31:54,698 --> 00:31:56,531
This is me preparing for either outcome

1364
00:31:56,531 --> 00:31:57,298
So we'll go ahead

1365
00:31:57,298 --> 00:31:59,764
and actually make this one

1366
00:31:59,764 --> 00:32:00,598
a different color

1367
00:32:00,598 --> 00:32:03,098
So it's easier to tell the difference

1368
00:32:03,098 --> 00:32:04,231
So we have the blue scenario

1369
00:32:04,231 --> 00:32:05,131
and we have the green scenario

1370
00:32:05,131 --> 00:32:06,298
Previously when I tweeted about this

1371
00:32:06,298 --> 00:32:07,264
I said basically

1372
00:32:07,264 --> 00:32:08,198
which path we take

1373
00:32:08,198 --> 00:32:09,331
is going to be dependent

1374
00:32:09,331 --> 00:32:10,431
to some extent Bitcoin right

1375
00:32:10,431 --> 00:32:11,664
So if Bitcoin is able

1376
00:32:11,664 --> 00:32:12,931
to avoid correcting long enough

1377
00:32:12,931 --> 00:32:14,464
and CRV may push up to these

1378
00:32:14,464 --> 00:32:17,464
highs here at $0.29 and take the highs

1379
00:32:17,531 --> 00:32:18,431
But ultimately I am

1380
00:32:18,431 --> 00:32:21,198
looking for one more flush below $0.25

1381
00:32:21,198 --> 00:32:22,398
before the real

1382
00:32:22,398 --> 00:32:23,831
move to the upside starts

1383
00:32:23,831 --> 00:32:25,364
And then just like Bitcoin

1384
00:32:25,364 --> 00:32:27,131
we have two potential possibilities

1385
00:32:27,131 --> 00:32:28,498
Either a more aggressive

1386
00:32:28,498 --> 00:32:29,598
V-shape reversal

1387
00:32:29,598 --> 00:32:31,264
which is the blue direction

1388
00:32:31,264 --> 00:32:33,531
or a more gradual accumulation base

1389
00:32:33,531 --> 00:32:35,131
which is the green path

1390
00:32:35,131 --> 00:32:36,531
as I've shown here

1391
00:32:36,531 --> 00:32:37,531
But the bottom line is

1392
00:32:37,531 --> 00:32:39,098
in both of these scenarios a dip

1393
00:32:39,098 --> 00:32:41,631
below $0.25 is a worthy buy

1394
00:32:41,631 --> 00:32:42,398
The only difference is

1395
00:32:42,398 --> 00:32:43,898
one of them has us clearing the range

1396
00:32:43,898 --> 00:32:44,431
highs first

1397
00:32:44,431 --> 00:32:46,364
and one of them has is failing to do so

1398
00:32:46,364 --> 00:32:46,698
And again

1399
00:32:46,698 --> 00:32:47,064
like I said

1400
00:32:47,064 --> 00:32:48,198
that's going to be primarily dependent

1401
00:32:48,198 --> 00:32:49,164
on whether or not Bitcoin

1402
00:32:49,164 --> 00:32:50,298
breaks down sooner

1403
00:32:50,298 --> 00:32:51,164
rather than later

1404
00:32:51,164 --> 00:32:52,364
or continues climbing

1405
00:32:52,364 --> 00:32:54,031
a bit longer allowing CRV

1406
00:32:54,031 --> 00:32:55,164
to get to these highs

1407
00:32:55,164 --> 00:32:56,231
Okay in either scenario

1408
00:32:56,231 --> 00:32:57,431
we're looking for one of these two

1409
00:32:57,431 --> 00:32:58,431
to play out

1410
00:32:58,431 --> 00:32:59,498
and then I'm targeting

1411
00:32:59,498 --> 00:33:00,431
of course the same targets

1412
00:33:00,431 --> 00:33:02,998
I've had for some time now 40 plus cents

1413
00:33:02,998 --> 00:33:03,831
And above that

1414
00:33:03,831 --> 00:33:06,498
we're looking at the upper target

1415
00:33:06,498 --> 00:33:08,131
at $0.60 Okay

1416
00:33:08,131 --> 00:33:08,964
Keep in mind guys

1417
00:33:08,964 --> 00:33:10,231
that these are lower timeframe

1418
00:33:10,231 --> 00:33:11,364
targets obviously

1419
00:33:11,364 --> 00:33:12,764
higher timeframe targets for those

1420
00:33:12,764 --> 00:33:14,098
that are not actively trading

1421
00:33:14,098 --> 00:33:17,098
$2 is the first main area of resistance

1422
00:33:17,098 --> 00:33:18,398
Like on the highest of time frames

1423
00:33:18,398 --> 00:33:19,998
This is really where things get serious

1424
00:33:19,998 --> 00:33:20,997
At $2

1425
00:33:20,997 --> 00:33:21,797
above $2

1426
00:33:21,797 --> 00:33:22,431
we're looking at new

1427
00:33:22,431 --> 00:33:25,031
all time highs above $6.80

1428
00:33:25,031 --> 00:33:26,231
So as you can see

1429
00:33:26,231 --> 00:33:27,064
I've already marked off

1430
00:33:27,064 --> 00:33:28,064
Some of you may now

1431
00:33:28,064 --> 00:33:29,564
kind of understand what these lines mean

1432
00:33:29,564 --> 00:33:30,531
What do they mean?

1433
00:33:30,531 --> 00:33:32,397
We have a series of higher highs

1434
00:33:32,397 --> 00:33:33,231
untapped liquidity

1435
00:33:33,231 --> 00:33:34,497
resting above these highs

1436
00:33:34,497 --> 00:33:35,797
So the idea again

1437
00:33:35,797 --> 00:33:36,697
is that once

1438
00:33:36,697 --> 00:33:38,931
we manage to get above $0.87

1439
00:33:38,931 --> 00:33:40,364
it should be a pretty aggressive shot

1440
00:33:40,364 --> 00:33:41,831
to around $2 Right

1441
00:33:41,831 --> 00:33:43,797
So these initial resistances

1442
00:33:43,797 --> 00:33:45,397
are kind of what's keeping us down

1443
00:33:45,397 --> 00:33:46,631
So we can expect pushes

1444
00:33:46,631 --> 00:33:47,997
into these initial areas

1445
00:33:47,997 --> 00:33:50,664
potential consolidations or chop

1446
00:33:50,664 --> 00:33:51,664
and then eventually

1447
00:33:51,664 --> 00:33:53,264
once we clear these two lower

1448
00:33:53,264 --> 00:33:54,064
timeframe targets

1449
00:33:54,064 --> 00:33:54,731
then we should

1450
00:33:54,731 --> 00:33:56,597
hopefully have a straight shot at the $2

1451
00:33:56,597 --> 00:33:58,164
Once we clear that a straight shot

1452
00:33:58,164 --> 00:33:59,364
to new all time highs

1453
00:33:59,364 --> 00:34:00,131
Guys that is it

1454
00:34:00,131 --> 00:34:01,031
for this video update guys

1455
00:34:01,031 --> 00:34:01,797
I hope you guys enjoyed it

1456
00:34:01,797 --> 00:34:02,831
If you did please like

1457
00:34:02,831 --> 00:34:03,897
share and subscribe

1458
00:34:03,897 --> 00:34:05,597
Remember to check out WOO

1459
00:34:05,597 --> 00:34:06,897
using the link below

1460
00:34:06,897 --> 00:34:09,197
and I'll catch you guys in the next one