Paper: First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Variability, Morphology, and Black Hole Mass
Authors: Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration, Kazunori Akiyama, Antxon Alberdi, Walter Alef, Juan Carlos Algaba, Richard Anantua, Keiichi Asada, Rebecca Azulay, Uwe Bach, Anne-Kathrin Baczko, David Ball, Mislav Baloković, John Barrett, Michi Bauböck, Bradford A. Benson, Dan Bintley, Lindy Blackburn, Raymond Blundell, Katherine L. Bouman, Geoffrey C. Bower, Hope Boyce, Michael Bremer, Christiaan D. Brinkerink, Roger Brissenden, Silke Britzen, Avery E. Broderick, Dominique Broguiere, Thomas Bronzwaer, Sandra Bustamante, Do-Young Byun, John E. Carlstrom, Chiara Ceccobello, Andrew Chael, Chi-kwan Chan, Koushik Chatterjee, Shami Chatterjee, Ming-Tang Chen, Yongjun Chen, 永军 陈, Xiaopeng Cheng, Ilje Cho, Pierre Christian, Nicholas S. Conroy, John E. Conway, James M. Cordes, Thomas M. Crawford, Geoffrey B. Crew, Alejandro Cruz-Osorio, Yuzhu Cui, 玉竹 崔, Jordy Davelaar, Mariafelicia De Laurentis, Roger Deane, Jessica Dempsey, Gregory Desvignes, Jason Dexter, Vedant Dhruv, Sheperd S. Doeleman, Sean Dougal, Sergio A. Dzib, Ralph P. Eatough, Razieh Emami, Heino Falcke, Joseph Farah, Vincent L. Fish, Ed Fomalont, H. Alyson Ford, Raquel Fraga-Encinas, William T. Freeman, Per Friberg, Christian M. Fromm, Antonio Fuentes, Peter Galison, Charles F. Gammie, Roberto García, Olivier Gentaz, Boris Georgiev, Ciriaco Goddi, Roman Gold, Arturo I. Gómez-Ruiz, José L. Gómez, Minfeng Gu, 敏峰 顾, Mark Gurwell, Kazuhiro Hada, Daryl Haggard, Kari Haworth, Michael H. Hecht, Ronald Hesper, Dirk Heumann, Luis C. Ho, 子山 何, Paul Ho, Mareki Honma, Chih-Wei L. Huang, Lei Huang, 磊 黄, David H. Hughes, Shiro Ikeda, C. M. Violette Impellizzeri, Makoto Inoue, Sara Issaoun, David J. James, Buell T. Jannuzi, Michael Janssen, Britton Jeter, Wu Jiang, 悟 江, Alejandra Jiménez-Rosales, Michael D. Johnson, Svetlana Jorstad, Abhishek V. Joshi, Taehyun Jung, Mansour Karami, Ramesh Karuppusamy, Tomohisa Kawashima, Garrett K. Keating, Mark Kettenis, Dong-Jin Kim, Jae-Young Kim, Jongsoo Kim, Junhan Kim, Motoki Kino, Jun Yi Koay, Prashant Kocherlakota, Yutaro Kofuji, Patrick M. Koch, Shoko Koyama, Carsten Kramer, Michael Kramer, Thomas P. Krichbaum, Cheng-Yu Kuo, Noemi La Bella, Tod R. Lauer, Daeyoung Lee, Sang-Sung Lee, Po Kin Leung, Aviad Levis, Zhiyuan Li, 志远 李, Rocco Lico, Greg Lindahl, Michael Lindqvist, Mikhail Lisakov, Jun Liu, 俊 刘, Kuo Liu, Elisabetta Liuzzo, Wen-Ping Lo, Andrei P. Lobanov, Laurent Loinard, Colin J. Lonsdale, Ru-Sen Lu, 如森 路, Jirong Mao, 基荣 毛, Nicola Marchili, Sera Markoff, Daniel P. Marrone, Alan P. Marscher, Iván Martí-Vidal, Satoki Matsushita, Lynn D. Matthews, Lia Medeiros, Karl M. Menten, Daniel Michalik, Izumi Mizuno, Yosuke Mizuno, James M. Moran, Kotaro Moriyama, Monika Moscibrodzka, Cornelia Müller, Alejandro Mus, Gibwa Musoke, Ioannis Myserlis, Andrew Nadolski, Hiroshi Nagai, Neil M. Nagar, Masanori Nakamura, Ramesh Narayan, Gopal Narayanan, Iniyan Natarajan, Antonios Nathanail, Santiago Navarro Fuentes, Joey Neilsen, Roberto Neri, Chunchong Ni, Aristeidis Noutsos, Michael A. Nowak, Junghwan Oh, Hiroki Okino, Héctor Olivares, Gisela N. Ortiz-León, Tomoaki Oyama, Daniel C. M. Palumbo, Georgios Filippos Paraschos, Jongho Park, Harriet Parsons, Nimesh Patel, Ue-Li Pen, Dominic W. Pesce, Vincent Piétu, Richard Plambeck, Aleksandar PopStefanija, Oliver Porth, Felix M. Pötzl, Ben Prather, Jorge A. Preciado-López, Hung-Yi Pu, Venkatessh Ramakrishnan, Ramprasad Rao, Mark G. Rawlings, Alexander W. Raymond, Luciano Rezzolla, Angelo Ricarte, Bart Ripperda, Freek Roelofs, Alan Rogers, Eduardo Ros, Cristina Romero-Cañizales, Arash Roshanineshat, Helge Rottmann, Alan L. Roy, Ignacio Ruiz, Chet Ruszczyk, Kazi L. J. Rygl, Salvador Sánchez, David Sánchez-Argüelles, Miguel Sánchez-Portal, Mahito Sasada, Kaushik Satapathy, Tuomas Savolainen, F. Peter Schloerb, Jonathan Schonfeld, Karl-Friedrich Schuster, Lijing Shao, Zhiqiang Shen, 志强 沈, Des Small, Bong Won Sohn, Jason SooHoo, Kamal Souccar, He Sun, 赫 孙, Fumie Tazaki, Alexandra J. Tetarenko, Paul Tiede, Remo P. J. Tilanus, Michael Titus, Pablo Torne, Efthalia Traianou, Tyler Trent, Sascha Trippe, Matthew Turk, Ilse van Bemmel, Huib Jan van Langevelde, Daniel R. van Rossum, Jesse Vos, Jan Wagner, Derek Ward-Thompson, John Wardle, Jonathan Weintroub, Norbert Wex, Robert Wharton, Maciek Wielgus, Kaj Wiik, Gunther Witzel, Michael F. Wondrak, George N. Wong, Qingwen Wu, 庆文 吴, Paul Yamaguchi, Doosoo Yoon, André Young, Ken Young, Ziri Younsi, Feng Yuan, 峰 袁, Ye-Fei Yuan, 业飞 袁, J. Anton Zensus, Shuo Zhang, Guang-Yao Zhao, Shan-Shan Zhao, 杉杉 赵, Dominic O. Chang
Figure caption: Model-agnostic estimate of the azimuthally averaged excess variance of the visibility amplitudes, after subtracting the variance from the reported statistical errors, as a function of baseline length. Nonparametric estimates (filled and open black circles) are obtained across April 5, 6, 7, and 10 and using both high- and low-band data. The filled black circles indicate significant detections of source variability, while the open black circles indicate variance measurements that are dominated by the other sources of uncertainty; only the former are used in the parametric fitting. Uncertainties associated with the thermal errors, uncertain station gains, and polarization leakage are indicated by the error bars. Azimuthally averaged thermal errors are shown by the gray triangles and provide an approximate lower limit on the range of accurate variance estimates. For comparison, the magnitudes of the variance induced by refractive scattering are shown in purple along the minor (top) and major (bottom) axes of the diffractive scattering kernel (see Section 4 of Paper III); the variance along individual tracks on April 7, as well as a ∼10 mJy floor (assuming a fixed 2.5 Jy total flux), is shown by the solid and dashed purple lines, respectively. The orange band indicates the 95th-percentile range of fits to the filled variance estimates shown by filled points by the broken power law of the form in Equation (8), with a handful of specific examples shown explicitly.