Some economic analysts consider that, ultimately, the catastrophe will improve Japan's economy, with increased job availability during restoration efforts. An analyst at JPMorgan Chase, citing the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Southern California 1994 Northridge earthquake, noted that natural disasters "do eventually boost output". An analyst at Société Générale anticipated that Japan's economy will decline in March 2011 but will revive powerfully in subsequent months. After the Kobe earthquake, industrial output dropped 2.6%, but increased by 2.2% the next month and 1% the following month. Japan's economy then accelerated substantially through the next two years, at more than its former rate. Others are of the opinion that the catastrophe will harm the economy. Some analysts have argued that those who predict that the reconstruction effort could help Japan's economy have fallen prey to the broken window fallacy. On 24 March, an executive of Bank of Japan's Osaka branch said he expected "a big decline in production, [leading to] an adjustment in the economy initially with exports and inventories falling and imports rising... Demand created by reconstruction projects will emerge after that." The government said that reconstruction in the ongoing year could raise GDP by 5 trillion yen to 7.75 trillion yen.