In a 10 January 2007 address to the American people, President George W. Bush stated that "80% of Iraq's sectarian violence occurs within of the capital. This violence is splitting Baghdad into sectarian enclaves, and shakes the confidence of all Iraqis.". The conflict escalated over the next several months until by late 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate described the conflict as having elements of a civil war. In 2008, during the Sunni Awakening and the U.S. troop surge, violence declined dramatically. However, an insurgency by Al-Qaeda in Iraq continued to plague Iraq following the U.S. withdrawal from the country in late 2011. In June 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the successor of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, launched a military offensive in Iraq and declared a self-proclaimed worldwide Islamic caliphate, leading to a full-scale war mainly between Iraq and ISIL from 2014 to 2017 in which Iraq declared full victory against the terrorist group.