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1 |
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Last time we have discussed hypothesis test for |
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2 |
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two population proportions. And we mentioned that |
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3 |
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the assumptions are for the first sample. n times |
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4 |
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pi should be at least 5, and also n times 1 minus |
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5 |
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pi is also at least 5. The same for the second |
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6 |
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sample, n 2 times pi 2 is at least 5, as well as n |
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7 |
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00:00:37,570 --> 00:00:42,860 |
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times 1 minus pi 2 is also at least 5. Also, we |
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8 |
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00:00:42,860 --> 00:00:46,000 |
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discussed that the point estimate for the |
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9 |
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00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:51,700 |
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difference of Pi 1 minus Pi 2 is given by P1 minus |
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10 |
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00:00:51,700 --> 00:00:57,160 |
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P2. That means this difference is unbiased point |
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11 |
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00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:03,160 |
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estimate of Pi 1 minus Pi 2. Similarly, P2 minus |
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12 |
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00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,700 |
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P1 is the point estimate of the difference Pi 2 |
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13 |
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00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:08,160 |
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minus Pi 1. |
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14 |
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00:01:11,260 --> 00:01:16,140 |
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We also discussed that the bold estimate for the |
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15 |
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00:01:16,140 --> 00:01:20,900 |
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overall proportion is given by this equation. So B |
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16 |
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dash is called the bold estimate for the overall |
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17 |
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proportion. X1 and X2 are the number of items of |
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18 |
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00:01:31,740 --> 00:01:35,170 |
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interest. And the two samples that you have in one |
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19 |
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and two, where in one and two are the sample sizes |
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20 |
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for the first and the second sample respectively. |
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21 |
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00:01:43,470 --> 00:01:46,830 |
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The appropriate statistic in this course is given |
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22 |
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by this equation. Z-score or Z-statistic is the |
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23 |
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00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,340 |
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point estimate of the difference pi 1 minus pi 2 |
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24 |
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minus the hypothesized value under if 0, I mean if |
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25 |
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00:02:00,620 --> 00:02:05,200 |
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0 is true, most of the time this term equals 0, |
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26 |
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00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:10,480 |
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divided by this quantity is called the standard |
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27 |
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00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,100 |
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error of the estimate, which is square root of B |
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28 |
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00:02:14,100 --> 00:02:17,660 |
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dash 1 minus B dash times 1 over N1 plus 1 over |
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29 |
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00:02:17,660 --> 00:02:22,160 |
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N2. So this is your Z statistic. The critical |
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30 |
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00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:27,980 |
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regions. I'm sorry, first, the appropriate null |
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31 |
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00:02:27,980 --> 00:02:32,200 |
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and alternative hypothesis are given by three |
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32 |
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cases we have. Either two-tailed test or one |
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33 |
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00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,540 |
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-tailed and it has either upper or lower tail. So |
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34 |
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for example, for lower-tailed test, We are going |
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35 |
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to test to see if a proportion 1 is smaller than a |
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36 |
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proportion 2. This one can be written as pi 1 |
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37 |
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00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:59,080 |
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smaller than pi 2 under H1, or the difference |
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38 |
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00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,160 |
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between these two population proportions is |
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39 |
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00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,940 |
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negative, is smaller than 0. So either you may |
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40 |
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write the alternative as pi 1 smaller than pi 2, |
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41 |
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00:03:09,180 --> 00:03:11,860 |
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or the difference, which is pi 1 minus pi 2 |
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42 |
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00:03:11,860 --> 00:03:15,730 |
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smaller than 0. For sure, the null hypothesis is |
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43 |
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00:03:15,730 --> 00:03:18,830 |
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the opposite of the alternative hypothesis. So if |
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44 |
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00:03:18,830 --> 00:03:22,310 |
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this is one by one smaller than by two, so the |
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45 |
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00:03:22,310 --> 00:03:24,710 |
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opposite by one is greater than or equal to two. |
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46 |
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00:03:25,090 --> 00:03:27,670 |
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Similarly, but the opposite side here, we are |
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47 |
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00:03:27,670 --> 00:03:31,530 |
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talking about the upper tail of probability. So |
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48 |
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00:03:31,530 --> 00:03:33,910 |
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under the alternative hypothesis, by one is |
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49 |
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00:03:33,910 --> 00:03:37,870 |
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greater than by two. Or it could be written as by |
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50 |
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00:03:37,870 --> 00:03:40,150 |
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one minus by two is positive, that means greater |
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51 |
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00:03:40,150 --> 00:03:45,970 |
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than zero. While for the two-tailed test, for the |
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52 |
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00:03:45,970 --> 00:03:49,310 |
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alternative hypothesis, we have Y1 does not equal |
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53 |
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00:03:49,310 --> 00:03:51,870 |
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Y2. In this case, we are saying there is no |
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54 |
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00:03:51,870 --> 00:03:55,950 |
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difference under H0, and there is a difference. |
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55 |
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00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,680 |
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should be under each one. Difference means either |
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56 |
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00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,220 |
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greater than or smaller than. So we have this not |
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57 |
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00:04:03,220 --> 00:04:06,800 |
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equal sign. So by one does not equal by two. Or it |
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58 |
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00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,980 |
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could be written as by one minus by two is not |
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59 |
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00:04:08,980 --> 00:04:12,320 |
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equal to zero. It's the same as the one we have |
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60 |
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00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,100 |
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discussed when we are talking about comparison of |
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61 |
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00:04:15,100 --> 00:04:19,500 |
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two population means. We just replaced these by's |
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62 |
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00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:24,960 |
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by mus. Finally, the rejection regions are given |
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63 |
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00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:30,000 |
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by three different charts here for the lower tail |
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64 |
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test. We reject the null hypothesis if the value |
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65 |
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00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:37,500 |
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of the test statistic fall in the rejection |
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66 |
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00:04:37,500 --> 00:04:40,940 |
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region, which is in the left side. So that means |
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67 |
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00:04:40,940 --> 00:04:44,040 |
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we reject zero if this statistic is smaller than |
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68 |
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00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:49,440 |
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negative zero. That's for lower tail test. On the |
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69 |
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00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,620 |
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other hand, for other tailed tests, your rejection |
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70 |
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00:04:51,620 --> 00:04:54,800 |
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region is the right side, so you reject the null |
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71 |
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00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,160 |
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hypothesis if this statistic is greater than Z |
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72 |
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00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:01,700 |
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alpha. In addition, for two-tailed tests, there |
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73 |
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00:05:01,700 --> 00:05:04,300 |
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are two rejection regions. One is on the right |
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74 |
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00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:07,000 |
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side, the other on the left side. Here, alpha is |
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75 |
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00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,960 |
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split into two halves, alpha over two to the |
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76 |
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00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,060 |
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right, similarly alpha over two to the left side. |
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77 |
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00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:16,900 |
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Here, we reject the null hypothesis if your Z |
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78 |
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00:05:16,900 --> 00:05:20,900 |
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statistic falls in the rejection region here, that |
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79 |
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00:05:20,900 --> 00:05:24,820 |
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means z is smaller than negative z alpha over 2 or |
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80 |
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00:05:24,820 --> 00:05:30,360 |
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z is greater than z alpha over 2. Now this one, I |
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81 |
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00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,980 |
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mean the rejection regions are the same for either |
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82 |
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00:05:33,980 --> 00:05:38,540 |
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one sample t-test or two sample t-test, either for |
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83 |
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00:05:38,540 --> 00:05:41,560 |
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the population proportion or the population mean. |
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84 |
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00:05:42,180 --> 00:05:46,120 |
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We have the same rejection regions. Sometimes we |
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85 |
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00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,800 |
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replace z by t. It depends if we are talking about |
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86 |
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small samples and sigmas unknown. So that's the |
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87 |
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00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,160 |
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basic concepts about testing or hypothesis testing |
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88 |
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00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,200 |
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for the comparison between two population |
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89 |
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00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,140 |
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proportions. And we stopped at this point. I will |
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90 |
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00:06:05,140 --> 00:06:08,780 |
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give three examples, three examples for testing |
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91 |
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about two population proportions. The first one is |
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92 |
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given here. It says that, is there a significant |
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93 |
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00:06:17,050 --> 00:06:20,490 |
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difference between the proportion of men and the |
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94 |
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00:06:20,490 --> 00:06:24,170 |
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proportion of women who will vote yes on a |
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95 |
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00:06:24,170 --> 00:06:24,630 |
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proposition? |
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96 |
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00:06:28,220 --> 00:06:30,480 |
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In this case, we are talking about a proportion. |
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97 |
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00:06:30,840 --> 00:06:34,520 |
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So this problem tests for a proportion. We have |
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98 |
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00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,980 |
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two proportions here because we have two samples |
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99 |
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00:06:38,980 --> 00:06:43,800 |
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for two population spheres, men and women. So |
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100 |
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00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,600 |
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there are two populations. So we are talking about |
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101 |
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two population proportions. Now, we have to state |
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102 |
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carefully now an alternative hypothesis. So for |
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103 |
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00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,640 |
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example, let's say that phi 1 is the population |
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104 |
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proportion, proportion of men who will vote for a |
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105 |
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00:07:07,140 --> 00:07:11,740 |
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proposition A for example, for vote yes, for vote |
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106 |
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00:07:11,740 --> 00:07:13,300 |
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yes for proposition A. |
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107 |
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00:07:30,860 --> 00:07:36,460 |
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is the same but of men, of women, I'm sorry. So |
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108 |
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00:07:36,460 --> 00:07:42,160 |
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the first one for men and the other of |
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109 |
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00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:48,400 |
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women. Now, in a random, so in this case, we are |
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110 |
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00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,020 |
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talking about difference between two population |
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111 |
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00:07:51,020 --> 00:07:52,940 |
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proportions, so by one equals by two. |
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112 |
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00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,820 |
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Your alternate hypothesis should be, since the |
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113 |
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00:08:00,820 --> 00:08:03,220 |
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problem talks about, is there a significant |
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114 |
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00:08:03,220 --> 00:08:07,140 |
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difference? Difference means two tails. So it |
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115 |
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00:08:07,140 --> 00:08:12,740 |
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should be pi 1 does not equal pi 2. Pi 1 does not |
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116 |
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00:08:12,740 --> 00:08:17,400 |
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equal pi 2. So there's still one state null and |
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117 |
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00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,680 |
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alternate hypothesis. Now, in a random sample of |
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118 |
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00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:28,880 |
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36 out of 72 men, And 31 of 50 women indicated |
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119 |
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00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:33,380 |
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they would vote yes. So for example, if X1 |
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120 |
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00:08:33,380 --> 00:08:39,000 |
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represents number of men who would vote yes, that |
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121 |
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00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:45,720 |
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means X1 equals 36 in |
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122 |
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00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:54,950 |
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172. So that's for men. Now for women. 31 out of |
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123 |
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00:08:54,950 --> 00:08:59,370 |
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50. So 50 is the sample size for the second |
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124 |
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00:08:59,370 --> 00:09:05,890 |
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sample. Now it's ask about this test about the |
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125 |
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00:09:05,890 --> 00:09:08,230 |
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difference between the two population proportion |
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126 |
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00:09:08,230 --> 00:09:13,890 |
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at 5% level of significance. So alpha is given to |
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127 |
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00:09:13,890 --> 00:09:19,390 |
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be 5%. So that's all the information you have in |
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128 |
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00:09:19,390 --> 00:09:23,740 |
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order to answer this question. So based on this |
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129 |
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00:09:23,740 --> 00:09:27,220 |
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statement, we state null and alternative |
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130 |
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00:09:27,220 --> 00:09:30,160 |
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hypothesis. Now based on this information, we can |
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131 |
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00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,220 |
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solve the problem by using three different |
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132 |
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00:09:32,220 --> 00:09:39,220 |
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approaches. Critical value approach, B value, and |
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133 |
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00:09:39,220 --> 00:09:42,320 |
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confidence interval approach. Because we can use |
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134 |
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00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,220 |
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confidence interval approach because we are |
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135 |
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00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:47,380 |
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talking about two-tailed test. So let's start with |
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136 |
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00:09:47,380 --> 00:09:50,240 |
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the basic one, critical value approach. So |
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137 |
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00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:50,980 |
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approach A. |
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138 |
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00:10:01,140 --> 00:10:03,400 |
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Now since we are talking about two-tailed test, |
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139 |
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00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:08,120 |
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your critical value should be plus or minus z |
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140 |
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00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:12,780 |
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alpha over 2. And since alpha is 5% so the |
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141 |
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00:10:12,780 --> 00:10:18,420 |
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critical values are z |
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142 |
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00:10:18,420 --> 00:10:26,650 |
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plus or minus 0.25 which is 196. Or you may use |
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143 |
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00:10:26,650 --> 00:10:30,050 |
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the standard normal table in order to find the |
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144 |
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00:10:30,050 --> 00:10:33,330 |
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critical values. Or just if you remember that |
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145 |
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00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:37,150 |
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values from previous time. So the critical regions |
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146 |
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00:10:37,150 --> 00:10:47,030 |
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are above 196 or smaller than negative 196. I have |
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147 |
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00:10:47,030 --> 00:10:51,090 |
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to compute the Z statistic. Now Z statistic is |
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148 |
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00:10:51,090 --> 00:10:55,290 |
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given by this equation. Z stat equals B1 minus B2. |
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149 |
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00:10:55,730 --> 00:11:03,010 |
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minus Pi 1 minus Pi 2. This quantity divided by P |
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150 |
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00:11:03,010 --> 00:11:09,690 |
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dash 1 minus P dash multiplied by 1 over N1 plus 1 |
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151 |
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00:11:09,690 --> 00:11:17,950 |
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over N1. Here we have to find B1, B2. So B1 equals |
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152 |
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00:11:17,950 --> 00:11:21,910 |
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X1 over N1. X1 is given. |
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153 |
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00:11:27,180 --> 00:11:32,160 |
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to that means 50%. Similarly, |
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154 |
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00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:39,840 |
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B2 is A equals X2 over into X to the third power |
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155 |
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00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:48,380 |
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over 50, so that's 60%. Also, we have to compute |
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156 |
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00:11:48,380 --> 00:11:55,500 |
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the bold estimate of the overall proportion of B |
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157 |
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00:11:55,500 --> 00:11:55,860 |
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dash |
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158 |
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00:12:01,890 --> 00:12:07,130 |
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What are the sample sizes we have? X1 and X2. 36 |
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159 |
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00:12:07,130 --> 00:12:14,550 |
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plus 31. Over 72 plus 7. 72 plus 7. So that means |
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160 |
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00:12:14,550 --> 00:12:22,310 |
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67 over 152.549. |
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161 |
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00:12:24,690 --> 00:12:25,610 |
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120. |
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162 |
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00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:34,620 |
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So simple calculations give B1 and B2, as well as |
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163 |
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00:12:34,620 --> 00:12:39,340 |
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B dash. Now, plug these values on the Z-state |
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164 |
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00:12:39,340 --> 00:12:43,540 |
|
formula, we get the value that is this. So first, |
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165 |
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00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,560 |
|
state null and alternative hypothesis, pi 1 minus |
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166 |
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00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:50,080 |
|
pi 2 equals 0. That means the two populations are |
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167 |
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00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:55,290 |
|
equal. We are going to test this one against Pi 1 |
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168 |
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00:12:55,290 --> 00:12:58,570 |
|
minus Pi 2 is not zero. That means there is a |
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169 |
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00:12:58,570 --> 00:13:02,430 |
|
significant difference between proportions. Now |
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170 |
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00:13:02,430 --> 00:13:06,290 |
|
for men, we got proportion of 50%. That's for the |
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171 |
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00:13:06,290 --> 00:13:09,370 |
|
similar proportion. And similar proportion for |
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172 |
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00:13:09,370 --> 00:13:15,390 |
|
women who will vote yes for position A is 62%. The |
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173 |
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00:13:15,390 --> 00:13:19,530 |
|
pooled estimate for the overall proportion equals |
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174 |
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00:13:19,530 --> 00:13:24,530 |
|
0.549. Now, based on this information, we can |
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|
175 |
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00:13:24,530 --> 00:13:27,610 |
|
calculate the Z statistic. Straightforward |
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176 |
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00:13:27,610 --> 00:13:33,470 |
|
calculation, you will end with this result. So, Z |
|
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177 |
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00:13:33,470 --> 00:13:39,350 |
|
start negative 1.31. |
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178 |
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00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:44,950 |
|
So, we have to compute this one before either |
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179 |
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00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:47,650 |
|
before using any of the approaches we have. |
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|
180 |
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00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:52,960 |
|
If we are going to use their critical value |
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181 |
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00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,140 |
|
approach, we have to find Z alpha over 2 which is |
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182 |
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00:13:55,140 --> 00:13:59,320 |
|
1 more than 6. Now the question is, is this value |
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183 |
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00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:05,140 |
|
falling the rejection regions right or left? it's |
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184 |
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00:14:05,140 --> 00:14:10,660 |
|
clear that this value, negative 1.31, lies in the |
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185 |
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00:14:10,660 --> 00:14:12,960 |
|
non-rejection region, so we don't reject a null |
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186 |
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00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:17,900 |
|
hypothesis. So my decision is don't reject H0. My |
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187 |
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00:14:17,900 --> 00:14:22,580 |
|
conclusion is there is not significant evidence of |
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188 |
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00:14:22,580 --> 00:14:25,160 |
|
a difference in proportions who will vote yes |
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189 |
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00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:31,300 |
|
between men and women. Even it seems to me that |
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190 |
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00:14:31,300 --> 00:14:34,550 |
|
there is a difference between Similar proportions, |
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191 |
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00:14:34,790 --> 00:14:38,290 |
|
50% and 62%. Still, this difference is not |
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192 |
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00:14:38,290 --> 00:14:41,670 |
|
significant in order to say that there is |
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193 |
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00:14:41,670 --> 00:14:44,730 |
|
significant difference between the proportions of |
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194 |
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00:14:44,730 --> 00:14:49,390 |
|
men and women. So based on the critical value |
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195 |
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00:14:49,390 --> 00:14:52,860 |
|
approach. We end with this result, which is we |
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196 |
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00:14:52,860 --> 00:14:56,120 |
|
don't reject null hypotheses. That means the |
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197 |
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00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:00,620 |
|
information you have is not sufficient in order to |
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198 |
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00:15:00,620 --> 00:15:05,080 |
|
support alternative hypotheses. So your managerial |
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199 |
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00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,020 |
|
conclusion should be there is not significant |
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200 |
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00:15:07,020 --> 00:15:12,500 |
|
difference in proportion and proportions who will |
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201 |
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00:15:12,500 --> 00:15:16,300 |
|
vote yes between men and women. That's for using |
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202 |
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00:15:16,300 --> 00:15:21,350 |
|
critical value approach. Before continue, we have |
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203 |
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00:15:21,350 --> 00:15:24,930 |
|
to discuss the confidence interval for the |
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204 |
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00:15:24,930 --> 00:15:28,890 |
|
difference pi 1 minus pi 2. The confidence |
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205 |
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00:15:28,890 --> 00:15:32,010 |
|
interval, as we mentioned before, can be |
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206 |
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00:15:32,010 --> 00:15:38,110 |
|
constructed by point estimate, plus or minus |
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207 |
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00:15:38,110 --> 00:15:41,590 |
|
critical value times the standard error of the |
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208 |
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00:15:41,590 --> 00:15:47,930 |
|
point estimate. In this case, the point estimate |
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209 |
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00:15:47,930 --> 00:15:52,950 |
|
for pi 1 minus pi 2 is b1 minus b2. So that's your |
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210 |
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00:15:52,950 --> 00:15:58,490 |
|
point estimate, plus or minus z alpha over 2. Now |
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211 |
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00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:03,550 |
|
from the information from chapter 8, the standard |
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212 |
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00:16:03,550 --> 00:16:07,070 |
|
error of the difference, b1 minus pi 2, is given |
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213 |
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00:16:07,070 --> 00:16:11,350 |
|
by this equation. B1 times 1 minus B1, so B1 and |
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214 |
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00:16:11,350 --> 00:16:14,550 |
|
its complement, divided by the first sample size, |
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215 |
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00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:18,030 |
|
plus the second sample proportion times its |
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216 |
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00:16:18,030 --> 00:16:20,510 |
|
complement divided by the sample size of the |
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217 |
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00:16:20,510 --> 00:16:23,830 |
|
second sample. So that's your confidence interval. |
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218 |
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00:16:24,870 --> 00:16:27,710 |
|
So it looks similar to the one we have discussed |
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219 |
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00:16:27,710 --> 00:16:34,580 |
|
for the mu 1 minus mu 2. And that one we had x1 |
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220 |
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00:16:34,580 --> 00:16:38,240 |
|
bar minus x2 bar plus or minus z or t, it depends |
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221 |
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00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:44,620 |
|
on the sample sizes, times s square b times 1 over |
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222 |
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00:16:44,620 --> 00:16:48,920 |
|
n1 plus 1 over n2. Anyway, the confidence interval |
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223 |
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00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:53,940 |
|
for pi 1 minus pi 2 is given by this equation. Now |
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224 |
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00:16:53,940 --> 00:16:58,250 |
|
let's see how can we use the other two approaches |
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|
225 |
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00:16:58,250 --> 00:17:01,570 |
|
in order to test if there is significant |
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226 |
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00:17:01,570 --> 00:17:04,230 |
|
difference between the proportions of men and |
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227 |
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00:17:04,230 --> 00:17:07,910 |
|
women. I'm sure you don't have this slide for |
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228 |
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00:17:07,910 --> 00:17:12,730 |
|
computing B value and confidence interval. |
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229 |
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00:17:30,230 --> 00:17:35,050 |
|
Now since we are talking about two-thirds, your B |
|
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|
230 |
|
00:17:35,050 --> 00:17:37,670 |
|
value should be the probability of Z greater than |
|
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231 |
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00:17:37,670 --> 00:17:45,430 |
|
1.31 and smaller than negative 1.31. So my B value |
|
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232 |
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00:17:45,430 --> 00:17:53,330 |
|
in this case equals Z greater than 1.31 plus Z |
|
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233 |
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00:17:55,430 --> 00:17:59,570 |
|
smaller than negative 1.31. Since we are talking |
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234 |
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00:17:59,570 --> 00:18:03,810 |
|
about two tail tests, so there are two rejection |
|
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235 |
|
00:18:03,810 --> 00:18:08,910 |
|
regions. My Z statistic is 1.31, so it should be |
|
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236 |
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00:18:08,910 --> 00:18:14,990 |
|
here 1.31 to the right, and negative. Now, what's |
|
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|
237 |
|
00:18:14,990 --> 00:18:20,150 |
|
the probability that the Z statistic will fall in |
|
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|
238 |
|
00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:23,330 |
|
the rejection regions, right or left? So we have |
|
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239 |
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00:18:23,330 --> 00:18:27,650 |
|
to add. B of Z greater than 1.31 and B of Z |
|
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|
240 |
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00:18:27,650 --> 00:18:30,750 |
|
smaller than negative. Now the two areas to the |
|
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241 |
|
00:18:30,750 --> 00:18:34,790 |
|
right of 1.31 and to the left of negative 1.31 are |
|
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242 |
|
00:18:34,790 --> 00:18:38,110 |
|
equal because of symmetry. So just compute one and |
|
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|
243 |
|
00:18:38,110 --> 00:18:43,030 |
|
multiply that by two, you will get the B value. So |
|
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|
244 |
|
00:18:43,030 --> 00:18:47,110 |
|
two times. Now by using the concept in chapter |
|
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|
245 |
|
00:18:47,110 --> 00:18:50,550 |
|
six, easily you can compute either this one or the |
|
|
|
246 |
|
00:18:50,550 --> 00:18:53,030 |
|
other one. The other one directly from the |
|
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|
247 |
|
00:18:53,030 --> 00:18:55,870 |
|
negative z-score table. The other one you should |
|
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|
248 |
|
00:18:55,870 --> 00:18:58,710 |
|
have the complement 1 minus, because it's smaller |
|
|
|
249 |
|
00:18:58,710 --> 00:19:02,170 |
|
than 1.1. And either way you will get this result. |
|
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|
250 |
|
00:19:05,110 --> 00:19:11,750 |
|
Now my p-value is around 19%. Always we reject the |
|
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|
251 |
|
00:19:11,750 --> 00:19:14,930 |
|
null hypothesis. if your B value is smaller than |
|
|
|
252 |
|
00:19:14,930 --> 00:19:20,410 |
|
alpha that always we reject null hypothesis if my |
|
|
|
253 |
|
00:19:20,410 --> 00:19:25,950 |
|
B value is smaller than alpha alpha is given 5% |
|
|
|
254 |
|
00:19:25,950 --> 00:19:31,830 |
|
since B value equals |
|
|
|
255 |
|
00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:36,910 |
|
19% which is much bigger than Much greater than |
|
|
|
256 |
|
00:19:36,910 --> 00:19:41,170 |
|
5%, so we don't reject our analysis. So my |
|
|
|
257 |
|
00:19:41,170 --> 00:19:48,390 |
|
decision is we don't reject at zero. So the same |
|
|
|
258 |
|
00:19:48,390 --> 00:19:52,690 |
|
conclusion as we reached by using critical |
|
|
|
259 |
|
00:19:52,690 --> 00:19:57,850 |
|
penalty. So again, by using B value, we have to |
|
|
|
260 |
|
00:19:57,850 --> 00:20:00,770 |
|
compute the probability that your Z statistic |
|
|
|
261 |
|
00:20:00,770 --> 00:20:05,320 |
|
falls in the rejection regions. I end with this |
|
|
|
262 |
|
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:10,600 |
|
result, my B value is around 19%. As we mentioned |
|
|
|
263 |
|
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,180 |
|
before, we reject null hypothesis if my B value is |
|
|
|
264 |
|
00:20:14,180 --> 00:20:17,920 |
|
smaller than alpha. Now, my B value in this case |
|
|
|
265 |
|
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:22,740 |
|
is much, much bigger than 5%, so my decision is |
|
|
|
266 |
|
00:20:22,740 --> 00:20:26,860 |
|
don't reject null hypothesis. Any questions? |
|
|
|
267 |
|
00:20:36,140 --> 00:20:41,160 |
|
The other approach, the third one, confidence |
|
|
|
268 |
|
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,520 |
|
interval approach. |
|
|
|
269 |
|
00:20:46,260 --> 00:20:48,980 |
|
Now, for the confidence interval approach, we have |
|
|
|
270 |
|
00:20:48,980 --> 00:20:53,960 |
|
this equation, b1 minus b2. Again, the point |
|
|
|
271 |
|
00:20:53,960 --> 00:21:03,760 |
|
estimate, plus or minus z square root b1 times 1 |
|
|
|
272 |
|
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:09,810 |
|
minus b1 divided by a1. B2 times 1 minus B2 |
|
|
|
273 |
|
00:21:09,810 --> 00:21:11,650 |
|
divided by N2. |
|
|
|
274 |
|
00:21:13,850 --> 00:21:20,730 |
|
Now we have B1 and B2, so 0.5 minus 0.62. That's |
|
|
|
275 |
|
00:21:20,730 --> 00:21:25,170 |
|
your calculations from previous information we |
|
|
|
276 |
|
00:21:25,170 --> 00:21:28,470 |
|
have. Plus or minus Z alpha over 2, the critical |
|
|
|
277 |
|
00:21:28,470 --> 00:21:35,030 |
|
value again is 1.96 times Square root of P1.5 |
|
|
|
278 |
|
00:21:35,030 --> 00:21:41,090 |
|
times 1 minus 0.5 divided by N1 plus P2 62 percent |
|
|
|
279 |
|
00:21:41,090 --> 00:21:46,550 |
|
times 1 minus P2 divided by N2. 0.5 minus 62 |
|
|
|
280 |
|
00:21:46,550 --> 00:21:50,650 |
|
percent is negative 12 percent plus or minus the |
|
|
|
281 |
|
00:21:50,650 --> 00:21:53,090 |
|
margin of error. This amount is again as we |
|
|
|
282 |
|
00:21:53,090 --> 00:21:56,730 |
|
mentioned before is the margin of error is 0.177. |
|
|
|
283 |
|
00:21:57,530 --> 00:21:59,830 |
|
Now simple calculation will end with this result |
|
|
|
284 |
|
00:21:59,830 --> 00:22:03,300 |
|
that is The difference between the two proportions |
|
|
|
285 |
|
00:22:03,300 --> 00:22:09,820 |
|
lie between negative 0.296 and 0.057. That means |
|
|
|
286 |
|
00:22:09,820 --> 00:22:14,580 |
|
we are 95% confident that the difference between |
|
|
|
287 |
|
00:22:14,580 --> 00:22:19,100 |
|
the proportions of men who will vote yes for a |
|
|
|
288 |
|
00:22:19,100 --> 00:22:27,640 |
|
position A and men equals negative 0.297 up to 0 |
|
|
|
289 |
|
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,680 |
|
.057. Now the question is since we are testing |
|
|
|
290 |
|
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:37,380 |
|
it's zero by one minus by two equals zero the |
|
|
|
291 |
|
00:22:37,380 --> 00:22:41,700 |
|
question is does this interval contain zero or |
|
|
|
292 |
|
00:22:41,700 --> 00:22:47,680 |
|
capture zero? Now since we start here from |
|
|
|
293 |
|
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,230 |
|
negative and end with positive, I mean the lower |
|
|
|
294 |
|
00:22:51,230 --> 00:22:55,330 |
|
bound is negative 0.297 and the upper bound is 0 |
|
|
|
295 |
|
00:22:55,330 --> 00:23:00,610 |
|
.057. So zero inside the interval, I mean the |
|
|
|
296 |
|
00:23:00,610 --> 00:23:03,870 |
|
confidence interval contains zero in this case, so |
|
|
|
297 |
|
00:23:03,870 --> 00:23:06,650 |
|
we don't reject the null hypothesis because maybe |
|
|
|
298 |
|
00:23:06,650 --> 00:23:11,780 |
|
the difference equals zero. So since this interval |
|
|
|
299 |
|
00:23:11,780 --> 00:23:16,300 |
|
does contain the hypothesis difference zero, so we |
|
|
|
300 |
|
00:23:16,300 --> 00:23:21,100 |
|
don't reject null hypothesis at 5% level. So the |
|
|
|
301 |
|
00:23:21,100 --> 00:23:24,880 |
|
same conclusion as we got before by using critical |
|
|
|
302 |
|
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,460 |
|
value approach and de-value approach. So either |
|
|
|
303 |
|
00:23:27,460 --> 00:23:32,100 |
|
one will end with the same decision. Either reject |
|
|
|
304 |
|
00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:37,020 |
|
or fail to reject, it depends on the test itself. |
|
|
|
305 |
|
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,820 |
|
That's all. Do you have any question? Any |
|
|
|
306 |
|
00:23:43,820 --> 00:23:47,540 |
|
question? So again, there are three different |
|
|
|
307 |
|
00:23:47,540 --> 00:23:51,600 |
|
approaches in order to solve this problem. One is |
|
|
|
308 |
|
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,680 |
|
critical value approach, the standard one. The |
|
|
|
309 |
|
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,900 |
|
other two are the value approach and confidence |
|
|
|
310 |
|
00:23:58,900 --> 00:24:02,140 |
|
interval. One more time, confidence interval is |
|
|
|
311 |
|
00:24:02,140 --> 00:24:07,080 |
|
only valid for |
|
|
|
312 |
|
00:24:08,770 --> 00:24:13,110 |
|
two-tailed test. Because the confidence interval |
|
|
|
313 |
|
00:24:13,110 --> 00:24:16,430 |
|
we have is just for two-tailed test, so it could |
|
|
|
314 |
|
00:24:16,430 --> 00:24:20,210 |
|
be used only for testing about two-tailed test. |
|
|
|
315 |
|
00:24:23,350 --> 00:24:25,990 |
|
As we mentioned before, I'm going to skip |
|
|
|
316 |
|
00:24:25,990 --> 00:24:32,390 |
|
hypothesis for variances as well as ANOVA test. So |
|
|
|
317 |
|
00:24:32,390 --> 00:24:36,410 |
|
that's all for chapter ten. |
|
|
|
318 |
|
00:24:37,670 --> 00:24:42,390 |
|
But now I'm going to do some of the practice |
|
|
|
319 |
|
00:24:42,390 --> 00:24:43,730 |
|
problems. |
|
|
|
320 |
|
00:24:46,750 --> 00:24:52,630 |
|
Chapter 10. To practice, let's start with some |
|
|
|
321 |
|
00:24:52,630 --> 00:24:55,270 |
|
practice problems for Chapter 10. |
|
|
|
322 |
|
00:24:59,270 --> 00:25:03,770 |
|
A few years ago, Pepsi invited consumers to take |
|
|
|
323 |
|
00:25:03,770 --> 00:25:08,870 |
|
the Pepsi challenge. Consumers were asked to |
|
|
|
324 |
|
00:25:08,870 --> 00:25:13,790 |
|
decide which of two sodas, Coke or Pepsi. They |
|
|
|
325 |
|
00:25:13,790 --> 00:25:17,930 |
|
preferred an applied taste test. Pepsi was |
|
|
|
326 |
|
00:25:17,930 --> 00:25:21,930 |
|
interested in determining what factors played a |
|
|
|
327 |
|
00:25:21,930 --> 00:25:25,930 |
|
role in people's taste preferences. One of the |
|
|
|
328 |
|
00:25:25,930 --> 00:25:28,630 |
|
factors studied was the gender of the consumer. |
|
|
|
329 |
|
00:25:29,650 --> 00:25:32,350 |
|
Below are the results of the analysis comparing |
|
|
|
330 |
|
00:25:32,350 --> 00:25:36,870 |
|
the taste preferences of men and women with the |
|
|
|
331 |
|
00:25:36,870 --> 00:25:41,630 |
|
proportions depicting preference in or for Pepsi. |
|
|
|
332 |
|
00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:49,190 |
|
For meals, size |
|
|
|
333 |
|
00:25:49,190 --> 00:25:57,990 |
|
of 109. So that's your N1. And proportion. |
|
|
|
334 |
|
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:09,100 |
|
for males is around 4.2. For females, |
|
|
|
335 |
|
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:25,720 |
|
N2 equals 52, and proportion of females, 25%. The |
|
|
|
336 |
|
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,870 |
|
difference between proportions of men and women or |
|
|
|
337 |
|
00:26:29,870 --> 00:26:35,590 |
|
males and females is 0.172, around 0.172. And this |
|
|
|
338 |
|
00:26:35,590 --> 00:26:41,530 |
|
statistic is given by 2.118, so approximately 2 |
|
|
|
339 |
|
00:26:41,530 --> 00:26:47,170 |
|
.12. Now, based on this result, based on this |
|
|
|
340 |
|
00:26:47,170 --> 00:26:49,090 |
|
information, question number one, |
|
|
|
341 |
|
00:26:53,910 --> 00:26:58,690 |
|
To determine if a difference exists in the test |
|
|
|
342 |
|
00:26:58,690 --> 00:27:04,490 |
|
preferences of men and women, give the correct |
|
|
|
343 |
|
00:27:04,490 --> 00:27:06,970 |
|
alternative hypothesis that lives through a test. |
|
|
|
344 |
|
00:27:08,830 --> 00:27:15,830 |
|
A. B. Why B? Because the test defines between the |
|
|
|
345 |
|
00:27:15,830 --> 00:27:18,650 |
|
new form A and the new form B. Because if we say |
|
|
|
346 |
|
00:27:18,650 --> 00:27:21,910 |
|
that H1 is equal to U1 minus M equals F, |
|
|
|
347 |
|
00:27:28,970 --> 00:27:34,190 |
|
So the correct answer is B? B. So that's |
|
|
|
348 |
|
00:27:34,190 --> 00:27:40,830 |
|
incorrect. C. Why? Why C is the correct answer? |
|
|
|
349 |
|
00:27:45,470 --> 00:27:46,070 |
|
Because |
|
|
|
350 |
|
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,500 |
|
Y is not equal because we have difference. So |
|
|
|
351 |
|
00:27:56,500 --> 00:27:59,380 |
|
since we have difference here, it should be not |
|
|
|
352 |
|
00:27:59,380 --> 00:28:02,240 |
|
equal to. And since we are talking about |
|
|
|
353 |
|
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,120 |
|
proportions, so you have to ignore A and B. So A |
|
|
|
354 |
|
00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:10,020 |
|
and B should be ignored first. Then you either |
|
|
|
355 |
|
00:28:10,020 --> 00:28:15,220 |
|
choose C or D. C is the correct answer. So C is |
|
|
|
356 |
|
00:28:15,220 --> 00:28:20,440 |
|
the correct answer. That's for number one. Part |
|
|
|
357 |
|
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:27,100 |
|
two. Now suppose Pepsi wanted to test to determine |
|
|
|
358 |
|
00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:35,680 |
|
if males preferred Pepsi more than females. Using |
|
|
|
359 |
|
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,400 |
|
the test statistic given, compute the appropriate |
|
|
|
360 |
|
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:43,940 |
|
p-value for the test. Let's assume that pi 1 is |
|
|
|
361 |
|
00:28:43,940 --> 00:28:48,640 |
|
the population proportion for males who preferred |
|
|
|
362 |
|
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:56,440 |
|
Pepsi, and pi 2 for females who prefer Pepsi. Now |
|
|
|
363 |
|
00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:00,140 |
|
he asks about suppose the company wanted to test |
|
|
|
364 |
|
00:29:00,140 --> 00:29:02,760 |
|
to determine if males prefer Pepsi more than |
|
|
|
365 |
|
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:08,080 |
|
females. Using again the statistic given which is |
|
|
|
366 |
|
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:13,400 |
|
2.12 for example, compute appropriately value. Now |
|
|
|
367 |
|
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:18,160 |
|
let's state first H0 and H8. |
|
|
|
368 |
|
00:29:27,450 --> 00:29:31,970 |
|
H1 pi 1 |
|
|
|
369 |
|
00:29:31,970 --> 00:29:34,410 |
|
minus pi 2 is greater than zero. |
|
|
|
370 |
|
00:29:37,980 --> 00:29:42,740 |
|
Because it says that males prefer Pepsi more than |
|
|
|
371 |
|
00:29:42,740 --> 00:29:46,940 |
|
females. Bi-1 for males, Bi-2 for females. So I |
|
|
|
372 |
|
00:29:46,940 --> 00:29:50,800 |
|
should have Bi-1 greater than Bi-2 or Bi-1 minus |
|
|
|
373 |
|
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,940 |
|
Bi-2 is positive. So it's upper case. Now, in this |
|
|
|
374 |
|
00:29:54,940 --> 00:30:01,940 |
|
case, my B value, its probability is B. |
|
|
|
375 |
|
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,320 |
|
It's around this value. |
|
|
|
376 |
|
00:30:12,410 --> 00:30:18,230 |
|
1 minus b of z is smaller than 2.12. So 1 minus, |
|
|
|
377 |
|
00:30:18,350 --> 00:30:21,530 |
|
now by using the table or the z table we have. |
|
|
|
378 |
|
00:30:25,510 --> 00:30:29,370 |
|
Since we are talking about 2, 1, 12, 2, 1, 2, I'm |
|
|
|
379 |
|
00:30:29,370 --> 00:30:34,670 |
|
sorry, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, so the answer is 983. So |
|
|
|
380 |
|
00:30:34,670 --> 00:30:40,590 |
|
1 minus 893, so the answer is 017. So my b value. |
|
|
|
381 |
|
00:30:43,430 --> 00:30:49,890 |
|
equals 0 and 7. So A is the correct answer. Now if |
|
|
|
382 |
|
00:30:49,890 --> 00:30:53,970 |
|
the problem is two-tailed test, it should be |
|
|
|
383 |
|
00:30:53,970 --> 00:30:57,450 |
|
multiplied by 2. So the answer, the correct should |
|
|
|
384 |
|
00:30:57,450 --> 00:31:02,230 |
|
be B. So you have A and B. If it is one-third, |
|
|
|
385 |
|
00:31:02,390 --> 00:31:06,310 |
|
your correct answer is A. If it is two-thirds, I |
|
|
|
386 |
|
00:31:06,310 --> 00:31:10,550 |
|
mean if we are testing to determine if a |
|
|
|
387 |
|
00:31:10,550 --> 00:31:13,890 |
|
difference exists, then you have to multiply this |
|
|
|
388 |
|
00:31:13,890 --> 00:31:19,030 |
|
one by two. So that's your B value. Any question? |
|
|
|
389 |
|
00:31:23,010 --> 00:31:27,550 |
|
Number three. Suppose Babs wanted to test to |
|
|
|
390 |
|
00:31:27,550 --> 00:31:33,230 |
|
determine if meals If males prefer Pepsi less than |
|
|
|
391 |
|
00:31:33,230 --> 00:31:36,810 |
|
females, using the statistic given, compute the |
|
|
|
392 |
|
00:31:36,810 --> 00:31:42,990 |
|
product B value. Now, H1 in this case, B1 is |
|
|
|
393 |
|
00:31:42,990 --> 00:31:48,490 |
|
smaller than Z by 2, by 1 smaller than 1. Now your |
|
|
|
394 |
|
00:31:48,490 --> 00:31:54,490 |
|
B value, Z is smaller than, because here it is |
|
|
|
395 |
|
00:31:54,490 --> 00:31:58,050 |
|
smaller than my statistic 2.12. |
|
|
|
396 |
|
00:32:01,570 --> 00:32:04,790 |
|
We don't write negative sign. Because the value of |
|
|
|
397 |
|
00:32:04,790 --> 00:32:08,150 |
|
the statistic is 2.12. But here we are going to |
|
|
|
398 |
|
00:32:08,150 --> 00:32:11,790 |
|
test lower tail test. So my B value is B of Z |
|
|
|
399 |
|
00:32:11,790 --> 00:32:15,250 |
|
smaller than. So smaller comes from the |
|
|
|
400 |
|
00:32:15,250 --> 00:32:17,730 |
|
alternator. This is the sign under the alternator. |
|
|
|
401 |
|
00:32:18,910 --> 00:32:21,810 |
|
And you have to take the value of the Z statistic |
|
|
|
402 |
|
00:32:21,810 --> 00:32:22,510 |
|
as it is. |
|
|
|
403 |
|
00:32:25,610 --> 00:32:34,100 |
|
So B of Z is smaller than minus 3. so they need if |
|
|
|
404 |
|
00:32:34,100 --> 00:32:38,060 |
|
you got a correct answer D is the correct if B is |
|
|
|
405 |
|
00:32:38,060 --> 00:32:40,420 |
|
the correct answer you will get nine nine nine six |
|
|
|
406 |
|
00:32:40,420 --> 00:32:47,620 |
|
six that's incorrect answer any question the |
|
|
|
407 |
|
00:32:47,620 --> 00:32:53,920 |
|
correct is D number |
|
|
|
408 |
|
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,620 |
|
four suppose |
|
|
|
409 |
|
00:32:57,620 --> 00:33:03,650 |
|
that Now for example, forget the information we |
|
|
|
410 |
|
00:33:03,650 --> 00:33:07,390 |
|
have so far for B value. Suppose that the two |
|
|
|
411 |
|
00:33:07,390 --> 00:33:11,910 |
|
-tailed B value was really 0734. Now suppose my B |
|
|
|
412 |
|
00:33:11,910 --> 00:33:19,010 |
|
value for two-tailed is 0734. That's for two |
|
|
|
413 |
|
00:33:19,010 --> 00:33:20,210 |
|
-tailed. This is my B value. |
|
|
|
414 |
|
00:33:23,070 --> 00:33:28,490 |
|
This is my B value. It's 0, 7, 3, 4. Now we have |
|
|
|
415 |
|
00:33:28,490 --> 00:33:33,650 |
|
four answers. Part A, B, C, and D. Which one is |
|
|
|
416 |
|
00:33:33,650 --> 00:33:34,050 |
|
the correct? |
|
|
|
417 |
|
00:33:42,030 --> 00:33:46,610 |
|
A says at 5% level, there is sufficient evidence |
|
|
|
418 |
|
00:33:46,610 --> 00:33:51,510 |
|
to conclude the proportion of males Preferring |
|
|
|
419 |
|
00:33:51,510 --> 00:33:53,930 |
|
Pepsi differs from the proportion of females |
|
|
|
420 |
|
00:33:53,930 --> 00:33:58,970 |
|
preferring Pepsi. Which one is the correct answer? |
|
|
|
421 |
|
00:34:02,290 --> 00:34:04,550 |
|
B value is 0.734. |
|
|
|
422 |
|
00:34:10,370 --> 00:34:16,650 |
|
B it says at alpha equals 10 percent. There is |
|
|
|
423 |
|
00:34:16,650 --> 00:34:20,320 |
|
sufficient evidence. to indicate the proportion of |
|
|
|
424 |
|
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,900 |
|
males preferring Pepsi differs from the proportion |
|
|
|
425 |
|
00:34:22,900 --> 00:34:24,160 |
|
of females preferring Pepsi. |
|
|
|
426 |
|
00:34:27,240 --> 00:34:30,720 |
|
C. At 5%, there is sufficient evidence to indicate |
|
|
|
427 |
|
00:34:30,720 --> 00:34:33,260 |
|
the proportion of males preferring Pepsi equals |
|
|
|
428 |
|
00:34:33,260 --> 00:34:38,860 |
|
the proportion of females preferring Pepsi. D. At |
|
|
|
429 |
|
00:34:38,860 --> 00:34:42,480 |
|
8% level, there is insufficient evidence to |
|
|
|
430 |
|
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,860 |
|
include to indicate the proportion of males |
|
|
|
431 |
|
00:34:45,860 --> 00:34:48,580 |
|
preferring babies differs from the proportion of |
|
|
|
432 |
|
00:34:48,580 --> 00:34:49,720 |
|
females preferring babies. |
|
|
|
433 |
|
00:34:54,300 --> 00:34:59,360 |
|
Again, suppose that here it's two-tailed test. It |
|
|
|
434 |
|
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,420 |
|
says two-tailed test. Two-tailed means Y1 does not |
|
|
|
435 |
|
00:35:03,420 --> 00:35:09,540 |
|
equal Y2. So in this case, we are testing Y1 |
|
|
|
436 |
|
00:35:09,540 --> 00:35:16,190 |
|
equals Y2. against by one is not by two and your B |
|
|
|
437 |
|
00:35:16,190 --> 00:35:19,090 |
|
value is zero seven three four. So which one is |
|
|
|
438 |
|
00:35:19,090 --> 00:35:27,950 |
|
the correct answer? B? D. Let's look at D. Let's |
|
|
|
439 |
|
00:35:27,950 --> 00:35:29,270 |
|
look at D. |
|
|
|
440 |
|
00:35:34,610 --> 00:35:39,900 |
|
Since B value is smaller than alpha, Since it |
|
|
|
441 |
|
00:35:39,900 --> 00:35:44,840 |
|
means we reject Insufficient means we don't reject |
|
|
|
442 |
|
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:50,380 |
|
So D is incorrect D |
|
|
|
443 |
|
00:35:50,380 --> 00:35:52,440 |
|
is incorrect because here there is insufficient |
|
|
|
444 |
|
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,720 |
|
Since |
|
|
|
445 |
|
00:35:55,720 --> 00:35:58,800 |
|
we if we reject it means that we have sufficient |
|
|
|
446 |
|
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,700 |
|
evidence so support The alternative so D is |
|
|
|
447 |
|
00:36:02,700 --> 00:36:07,470 |
|
incorrect Now what's about C at five percent Five, |
|
|
|
448 |
|
00:36:07,830 --> 00:36:10,570 |
|
so this value is greater than five, so we don't |
|
|
|
449 |
|
00:36:10,570 --> 00:36:13,270 |
|
reject. So that's incorrect. |
|
|
|
450 |
|
00:36:21,370 --> 00:36:28,030 |
|
B. At five, at 10% now, there is sufficient |
|
|
|
451 |
|
00:36:28,030 --> 00:36:34,550 |
|
evidence. Sufficient means we reject. We reject. |
|
|
|
452 |
|
00:36:35,220 --> 00:36:40,440 |
|
Since this B value, 0.7, is smaller than alpha. 7% |
|
|
|
453 |
|
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,240 |
|
is smaller than 10%. So we reject. That means you |
|
|
|
454 |
|
00:36:44,240 --> 00:36:46,960 |
|
have to read carefully. There is sufficient |
|
|
|
455 |
|
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,280 |
|
evidence to include, to indicate the proportion of |
|
|
|
456 |
|
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,820 |
|
males preferring Pepsi differs from the proportion |
|
|
|
457 |
|
00:36:54,820 --> 00:36:58,660 |
|
of females. That's correct. So B is the correct |
|
|
|
458 |
|
00:36:58,660 --> 00:37:05,570 |
|
state. Now look at A. A, at 5% there is sufficient |
|
|
|
459 |
|
00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:09,710 |
|
evidence? No, because this value is greater than |
|
|
|
460 |
|
00:37:09,710 --> 00:37:16,970 |
|
alpha, so we don't reject. For this one. Here we |
|
|
|
461 |
|
00:37:16,970 --> 00:37:21,050 |
|
reject because at 10% we reject. So B is the |
|
|
|
462 |
|
00:37:21,050 --> 00:37:27,670 |
|
correct answer. Make sense? Yeah, exactly, for |
|
|
|
463 |
|
00:37:27,670 --> 00:37:31,850 |
|
10%. If this value is 5%, then B is incorrect. |
|
|
|
464 |
|
00:37:34,190 --> 00:37:38,690 |
|
Again, if we change this one to be 5%, still this |
|
|
|
465 |
|
00:37:38,690 --> 00:37:39,870 |
|
statement is false. |
|
|
|
466 |
|
00:37:43,050 --> 00:37:48,670 |
|
It should be smaller than alpha in order to reject |
|
|
|
467 |
|
00:37:48,670 --> 00:37:53,770 |
|
the null hypothesis. So, B is the correct |
|
|
|
468 |
|
00:37:53,770 --> 00:37:56,350 |
|
statement. |
|
|
|
469 |
|
00:37:58,180 --> 00:38:02,080 |
|
Always insufficient means you don't reject null |
|
|
|
470 |
|
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,000 |
|
hypothesis. Now for D, we reject null hypothesis |
|
|
|
471 |
|
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,500 |
|
at 8%. Since this value 0.7 is smaller than alpha, |
|
|
|
472 |
|
00:38:10,740 --> 00:38:14,700 |
|
so we reject. So this is incorrect. Now for C, be |
|
|
|
473 |
|
00:38:14,700 --> 00:38:19,440 |
|
careful. At 5%, if this, if we change this one |
|
|
|
474 |
|
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:23,560 |
|
little bit, there is insufficient evidence. What |
|
|
|
475 |
|
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:32,320 |
|
do you think? About C. If we change part C as at 5 |
|
|
|
476 |
|
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:36,540 |
|
% there is insufficient evidence to indicate the |
|
|
|
477 |
|
00:38:36,540 --> 00:38:39,840 |
|
proportion of males preferring Pepsi equals. |
|
|
|
478 |
|
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:49,940 |
|
You cannot say equal because this one maybe yes |
|
|
|
479 |
|
00:38:49,940 --> 00:38:53,200 |
|
maybe no you don't know the exact answer. So if we |
|
|
|
480 |
|
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,380 |
|
don't reject the null hypothesis then you don't |
|
|
|
481 |
|
00:38:56,380 --> 00:38:58,780 |
|
have sufficient evidence in order to support each |
|
|
|
482 |
|
00:38:58,780 --> 00:39:03,800 |
|
one. So, don't reject the zero as we mentioned |
|
|
|
483 |
|
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:10,660 |
|
before. Don't reject the zero does not imply |
|
|
|
484 |
|
00:39:10,660 --> 00:39:16,840 |
|
if zero is true. It means the evidence, the data |
|
|
|
485 |
|
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,500 |
|
you have is not sufficient to support the |
|
|
|
486 |
|
00:39:19,500 --> 00:39:25,260 |
|
alternative evidence. So, don't say equal to. So |
|
|
|
487 |
|
00:39:25,260 --> 00:39:30,560 |
|
say don't reject rather than saying accept. So V |
|
|
|
488 |
|
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:31,460 |
|
is the correct answer. |
|
|
|
489 |
|
00:39:35,940 --> 00:39:43,020 |
|
Six, seven, and eight. Construct 90% confidence |
|
|
|
490 |
|
00:39:43,020 --> 00:39:48,380 |
|
interval, construct 95, construct 99. It's |
|
|
|
491 |
|
00:39:48,380 --> 00:39:52,700 |
|
similar, just the critical value will be changed. |
|
|
|
492 |
|
00:39:53,620 --> 00:39:58,380 |
|
Now my question is, which is the widest continence |
|
|
|
493 |
|
00:39:58,380 --> 00:40:03,080 |
|
interval in this case? 99. The last one is the |
|
|
|
494 |
|
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:08,040 |
|
widest because here 99 is the largest continence |
|
|
|
495 |
|
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,160 |
|
limit. So that means the width of the interval is |
|
|
|
496 |
|
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:12,620 |
|
the largest in this case. |
|
|
|
497 |
|
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:23,770 |
|
For 5, 6 and 7. The question is construct either |
|
|
|
498 |
|
00:40:23,770 --> 00:40:30,930 |
|
90%, 95% or 99% for the same question. Simple |
|
|
|
499 |
|
00:40:30,930 --> 00:40:33,510 |
|
calculation will give the confidence interval for |
|
|
|
500 |
|
00:40:33,510 --> 00:40:38,590 |
|
each one. My question was, which one is the widest |
|
|
|
501 |
|
00:40:38,590 --> 00:40:43,630 |
|
confidence interval? Based on the C level, 99% |
|
|
|
502 |
|
00:40:43,630 --> 00:40:47,350 |
|
gives the widest confidence interval comparing to |
|
|
|
503 |
|
00:40:47,350 --> 00:41:02,100 |
|
90% and 95%. The exact answers for 5, 6 and 7, 0.5 |
|
|
|
504 |
|
00:41:02,100 --> 00:41:08,900 |
|
to 30 percent. For 95 percent, 0.2 to 32 percent. |
|
|
|
505 |
|
00:41:10,750 --> 00:41:16,030 |
|
For 99, negative 0.3 to 0.37. So this is the |
|
|
|
506 |
|
00:41:16,030 --> 00:41:21,970 |
|
widest. Because here we start from 5 to 30. Here |
|
|
|
507 |
|
00:41:21,970 --> 00:41:26,030 |
|
we start from lower than 5, 2%, up to upper, for |
|
|
|
508 |
|
00:41:26,030 --> 00:41:31,190 |
|
greater than 30, 32. Here we start from negative 3 |
|
|
|
509 |
|
00:41:31,190 --> 00:41:35,330 |
|
% up to 37. So this is the widest confidence |
|
|
|
510 |
|
00:41:35,330 --> 00:41:41,950 |
|
interval. Number six. Number six. number six five |
|
|
|
511 |
|
00:41:41,950 --> 00:41:44,850 |
|
six and seven are the same except we just share |
|
|
|
512 |
|
00:41:44,850 --> 00:41:49,710 |
|
the confidence level z so here we have one nine |
|
|
|
513 |
|
00:41:49,710 --> 00:41:54,070 |
|
six instead of one six four and two point five |
|
|
|
514 |
|
00:41:54,070 --> 00:42:01,170 |
|
seven it's our seven six next read the table e |
|
|
|
515 |
|
00:42:12,610 --> 00:42:19,330 |
|
Table A. Corporation randomly selects 150 |
|
|
|
516 |
|
00:42:19,330 --> 00:42:25,830 |
|
salespeople and finds that 66% who have never |
|
|
|
517 |
|
00:42:25,830 --> 00:42:29,070 |
|
taken self-improvement course would like such a |
|
|
|
518 |
|
00:42:29,070 --> 00:42:33,830 |
|
course. So currently, or in recent, |
|
|
|
519 |
|
00:42:37,660 --> 00:42:46,940 |
|
It says that out of 150 sales people, find that 66 |
|
|
|
520 |
|
00:42:46,940 --> 00:42:51,000 |
|
% would |
|
|
|
521 |
|
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:56,720 |
|
like to take such course. The firm did a similar |
|
|
|
522 |
|
00:42:56,720 --> 00:43:01,480 |
|
study 10 years ago. So in the past, they had the |
|
|
|
523 |
|
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:07,430 |
|
same study in which 60% of a random sample of 160 |
|
|
|
524 |
|
00:43:07,430 --> 00:43:12,430 |
|
salespeople wanted a self-improvement course. So |
|
|
|
525 |
|
00:43:12,430 --> 00:43:13,710 |
|
in the past, |
|
|
|
526 |
|
00:43:16,430 --> 00:43:25,230 |
|
into 160, and proportion is 60%. The groups are |
|
|
|
527 |
|
00:43:25,230 --> 00:43:29,690 |
|
assumed to be independent random samples. Let Pi 1 |
|
|
|
528 |
|
00:43:29,690 --> 00:43:32,890 |
|
and Pi 2 represent the true proportion of workers |
|
|
|
529 |
|
00:43:32,890 --> 00:43:36,030 |
|
who would like to attend a self-improvement course |
|
|
|
530 |
|
00:43:36,030 --> 00:43:39,550 |
|
in the recent study and the past study |
|
|
|
531 |
|
00:43:39,550 --> 00:43:44,490 |
|
respectively. So suppose Pi 1 and Pi 2. Pi 1 for |
|
|
|
532 |
|
00:43:44,490 --> 00:43:49,470 |
|
recent study and Pi 2 for the past study. So |
|
|
|
533 |
|
00:43:49,470 --> 00:43:53,590 |
|
that's the question. Now, question number one. |
|
|
|
534 |
|
00:43:56,580 --> 00:44:00,220 |
|
If the firm wanted to test whether this proportion |
|
|
|
535 |
|
00:44:00,220 --> 00:44:06,800 |
|
has changed from the previous study, which |
|
|
|
536 |
|
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,100 |
|
represents the relevant hypothesis? |
|
|
|
537 |
|
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:18,540 |
|
Again, the firm wanted to test whether this |
|
|
|
538 |
|
00:44:18,540 --> 00:44:21,740 |
|
proportion has changed. From the previous study, |
|
|
|
539 |
|
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,900 |
|
which represents the relevant hypothesis in this |
|
|
|
540 |
|
00:44:25,900 --> 00:44:26,140 |
|
case? |
|
|
|
541 |
|
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:40,120 |
|
Which is the correct? A is |
|
|
|
542 |
|
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:44,500 |
|
the correct answer. Why A is the correct answer? |
|
|
|
543 |
|
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,040 |
|
Since we are talking about proportions, so it |
|
|
|
544 |
|
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:51,750 |
|
should have pi. It changed, it means does not |
|
|
|
545 |
|
00:44:51,750 --> 00:44:55,410 |
|
equal 2. So A is the correct answer. Now B is |
|
|
|
546 |
|
00:44:55,410 --> 00:45:00,850 |
|
incorrect because why B is incorrect? Exactly |
|
|
|
547 |
|
00:45:00,850 --> 00:45:03,770 |
|
because under H0 we have pi 1 minus pi 2 does not |
|
|
|
548 |
|
00:45:03,770 --> 00:45:08,570 |
|
equal 0. Always equal sign appears only under the |
|
|
|
549 |
|
00:45:08,570 --> 00:45:14,950 |
|
null hypothesis. So it's the opposite here. Now C |
|
|
|
550 |
|
00:45:14,950 --> 00:45:21,190 |
|
and D talking about Upper tier or lower tier, but |
|
|
|
551 |
|
00:45:21,190 --> 00:45:23,890 |
|
here we're talking about two-tiered test, so A is |
|
|
|
552 |
|
00:45:23,890 --> 00:45:24,750 |
|
the correct answer. |
|
|
|
553 |
|
00:45:29,490 --> 00:45:33,090 |
|
This sign null hypothesis states incorrectly, |
|
|
|
554 |
|
00:45:34,030 --> 00:45:38,010 |
|
because under H0 should have equal sign, and for |
|
|
|
555 |
|
00:45:38,010 --> 00:45:39,730 |
|
alternate it should be not equal to. |
|
|
|
556 |
|
00:45:42,770 --> 00:45:43,630 |
|
Number two. |
|
|
|
557 |
|
00:45:47,860 --> 00:45:51,840 |
|
If the firm wanted to test whether a greater |
|
|
|
558 |
|
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:56,680 |
|
proportion of workers would currently like to |
|
|
|
559 |
|
00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:00,180 |
|
attend a self-improvement course than in the past, |
|
|
|
560 |
|
00:46:00,900 --> 00:46:05,840 |
|
currently, the proportion is greater than in the |
|
|
|
561 |
|
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:13,680 |
|
past. Which represents the relevant hypothesis? C |
|
|
|
562 |
|
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:18,180 |
|
is the correct answer. Because it says a greater |
|
|
|
563 |
|
00:46:18,180 --> 00:46:22,340 |
|
proportion of workers work currently. So by one, |
|
|
|
564 |
|
00:46:22,420 --> 00:46:26,340 |
|
greater than by two. So C is the correct answer. |
|
|
|
565 |
|
00:46:31,340 --> 00:46:40,140 |
|
It says that the firm wanted to test proportion of |
|
|
|
566 |
|
00:46:40,140 --> 00:46:46,640 |
|
workers currently study |
|
|
|
567 |
|
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:50,320 |
|
or recent study by one represents the proportion |
|
|
|
568 |
|
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:55,140 |
|
of workers who would like to attend the course so |
|
|
|
569 |
|
00:46:55,140 --> 00:46:58,080 |
|
that's by one greater than |
|
|
|
570 |
|
00:47:01,730 --> 00:47:05,350 |
|
In the past. So it means by one is greater than by |
|
|
|
571 |
|
00:47:05,350 --> 00:47:11,870 |
|
two. It means by one minus by two is positive. So |
|
|
|
572 |
|
00:47:11,870 --> 00:47:14,590 |
|
the alternative is by one minus two by two is |
|
|
|
573 |
|
00:47:14,590 --> 00:47:16,430 |
|
positive. So this one is the correct answer. |
|
|
|
574 |
|
00:47:21,530 --> 00:47:26,910 |
|
Exactly. If if here we have what in the past |
|
|
|
575 |
|
00:47:26,910 --> 00:47:30,430 |
|
should be it should be the correct answer. |
|
|
|
576 |
|
00:47:34,690 --> 00:47:40,450 |
|
That's to three. Any question for going to number |
|
|
|
577 |
|
00:47:40,450 --> 00:47:49,590 |
|
three? Any question for number two? Three. What is |
|
|
|
578 |
|
00:47:49,590 --> 00:47:52,790 |
|
the unbiased point estimate for the difference |
|
|
|
579 |
|
00:47:52,790 --> 00:47:54,410 |
|
between the two population proportions? |
|
|
|
580 |
|
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:04,360 |
|
B1 minus B2 which is straight forward calculation |
|
|
|
581 |
|
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,980 |
|
gives A the correct answer. Because the point |
|
|
|
582 |
|
00:48:06,980 --> 00:48:13,320 |
|
estimate in this case is B1 minus B2. B1 is 66 |
|
|
|
583 |
|
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:18,560 |
|
percent, B2 is 60 percent, so the answer is 6 |
|
|
|
584 |
|
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:26,190 |
|
percent. So B1 minus B2 which is 6 percent. I |
|
|
|
585 |
|
00:48:26,190 --> 00:48:32,450 |
|
think three is straightforward. Number four, what |
|
|
|
586 |
|
00:48:32,450 --> 00:48:38,450 |
|
is or are the critical values which, when |
|
|
|
587 |
|
00:48:38,450 --> 00:48:41,870 |
|
performing a z-test on whether population |
|
|
|
588 |
|
00:48:41,870 --> 00:48:46,570 |
|
proportions are different at 5%. Here, yes, we are |
|
|
|
589 |
|
00:48:46,570 --> 00:48:52,250 |
|
talking about two-tailed test, and alpha is 5%. So |
|
|
|
590 |
|
00:48:52,250 --> 00:48:55,550 |
|
my critical values, they are two critical values, |
|
|
|
591 |
|
00:48:55,630 --> 00:48:55,830 |
|
actually. |
|
|
|
592 |
|
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:31,000 |
|
What is or are the critical values when testing |
|
|
|
593 |
|
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,260 |
|
whether population proportions are different at 10 |
|
|
|
594 |
|
00:49:34,260 --> 00:49:39,240 |
|
%? The same instead here we have 10 instead of 5%. |
|
|
|
595 |
|
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:45,100 |
|
So A is the correct answer. So just use the table. |
|
|
|
596 |
|
00:49:47,340 --> 00:49:51,440 |
|
Now for the previous one, we have 0 to 5, 0 to 5. |
|
|
|
597 |
|
00:49:51,980 --> 00:49:57,740 |
|
The other one, alpha is 10%. So 0, 5 to the right, |
|
|
|
598 |
|
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:03,580 |
|
the same as to the left. So plus or minus 164. |
|
|
|
599 |
|
00:50:06,700 --> 00:50:11,580 |
|
So 4 and 5 by using the z table. |
|
|
|
600 |
|
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:25,280 |
|
So exactly, since alpha here is 1, 0, 2, 5, so the |
|
|
|
601 |
|
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:27,880 |
|
area becomes smaller than, so it should be z |
|
|
|
602 |
|
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:32,380 |
|
greater than. So 1.106, the other one 1.645, |
|
|
|
603 |
|
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:38,030 |
|
number 6. What is or are? The critical value in |
|
|
|
604 |
|
00:50:38,030 --> 00:50:42,450 |
|
testing whether the current population is higher |
|
|
|
605 |
|
00:50:42,450 --> 00:50:50,990 |
|
than. Higher means above. Above 10. Above 10, 5%. |
|
|
|
606 |
|
00:50:50,990 --> 00:50:55,870 |
|
So which? B. |
|
|
|
607 |
|
00:50:58,470 --> 00:51:00,810 |
|
B is the correct. Z alpha. |
|
|
|
608 |
|
00:51:06,700 --> 00:51:08,440 |
|
So, B is the correct answer. |
|
|
|
609 |
|
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:11,840 |
|
7. |
|
|
|
610 |
|
00:51:14,740 --> 00:51:21,320 |
|
7 and 8 we should have to calculate number 1. 7 |
|
|
|
611 |
|
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:25,880 |
|
was the estimated standard error of the difference |
|
|
|
612 |
|
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,660 |
|
between the two sample proportions. We should have |
|
|
|
613 |
|
00:51:29,660 --> 00:51:30,740 |
|
a standard error. |
|
|
|
614 |
|
00:51:34,620 --> 00:51:40,320 |
|
Square root, B dash 1 minus B dash multiplied by 1 |
|
|
|
615 |
|
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:45,300 |
|
over N1 plus 1 over N2. And we have to find B dash |
|
|
|
616 |
|
00:51:45,300 --> 00:51:49,220 |
|
here. Let's see how can we find B dash. |
|
|
|
617 |
|
00:51:52,720 --> 00:51:59,700 |
|
B dash |
|
|
|
618 |
|
00:51:59,700 --> 00:52:05,800 |
|
equal x1 plus x2. Now what's the value of X1? |
|
|
|
619 |
|
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:16,220 |
|
Exactly. Since B1 is X1 over N1. So that means X1 |
|
|
|
620 |
|
00:52:16,220 --> 00:52:26,600 |
|
is N1 times B1. So N1 is 150 times 60%. So that's |
|
|
|
621 |
|
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:35,980 |
|
99. And similarly, X2 N2, which is 160, times 60% |
|
|
|
622 |
|
00:52:35,980 --> 00:52:48,420 |
|
gives 96. So your B dash is x1 plus x2 divided by |
|
|
|
623 |
|
00:52:48,420 --> 00:52:55,200 |
|
N1 plus N2, which is 150 plus 310. So complete B |
|
|
|
624 |
|
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,760 |
|
dash versus the bold estimate of overall |
|
|
|
625 |
|
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:03,570 |
|
proportion So 9 and 9 plus 9 is 6. |
|
|
|
626 |
|
00:53:06,390 --> 00:53:07,730 |
|
That's just B-. |
|
|
|
627 |
|
00:53:13,210 --> 00:53:14,290 |
|
6 to 9. |
|
|
|
628 |
|
00:53:17,150 --> 00:53:23,190 |
|
6 to 9. So this is not your answer. It's just B-. |
|
|
|
629 |
|
00:53:23,770 --> 00:53:29,030 |
|
Now take this value and the square root of 6 to 9. |
|
|
|
630 |
|
00:53:30,060 --> 00:53:36,280 |
|
times 1.629 multiplied by 1 over N1 which is 150 |
|
|
|
631 |
|
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:44,980 |
|
plus 160. That's your standard error. B dash is |
|
|
|
632 |
|
00:53:44,980 --> 00:53:49,080 |
|
not standard error. B dash is the bold estimate of |
|
|
|
633 |
|
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:53,740 |
|
overall proportion. Now simple calculation will |
|
|
|
634 |
|
00:53:53,740 --> 00:53:59,740 |
|
give C. So C is the correct answer. |
|
|
|
635 |
|
00:54:07,060 --> 00:54:15,600 |
|
What's the standard error of the difference |
|
|
|
636 |
|
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:17,600 |
|
between the two proportions given by this |
|
|
|
637 |
|
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:23,320 |
|
equation? Here first we have to compute P' by |
|
|
|
638 |
|
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:28,300 |
|
using x1 plus x2 over n1 plus n2. In this example, |
|
|
|
639 |
|
00:54:29,420 --> 00:54:31,280 |
|
the x's are not given, but we have the |
|
|
|
640 |
|
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:35,010 |
|
proportions. And we know that B1 equals X1 over |
|
|
|
641 |
|
00:54:35,010 --> 00:54:39,590 |
|
N1. So X1 equals N1 times B1. So I got 99. |
|
|
|
642 |
|
00:54:40,290 --> 00:54:45,070 |
|
Similarly, X2 and 2 times B2 is 96. So B dash is |
|
|
|
643 |
|
00:54:45,070 --> 00:54:51,610 |
|
629. So plug this value here, you will get 055. |
|
|
|
644 |
|
00:54:56,170 --> 00:55:00,530 |
|
What's the value that is satisfactory to use in |
|
|
|
645 |
|
00:55:00,530 --> 00:55:02,790 |
|
evaluating the alternative hypothesis? That there |
|
|
|
646 |
|
00:55:02,790 --> 00:55:04,710 |
|
is a difference in the two population proportions. |
|
|
|
647 |
|
00:55:05,350 --> 00:55:12,250 |
|
So we have to compute Z score, Z stat, which is V1 |
|
|
|
648 |
|
00:55:12,250 --> 00:55:16,870 |
|
minus V2, which is 6%, minus 0, divided by this |
|
|
|
649 |
|
00:55:16,870 --> 00:55:24,840 |
|
amount, 0.55. Now, 0.6 over 0.5 around 1. Six over |
|
|
|
650 |
|
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:30,700 |
|
five, so the answer is one. So that's my Z |
|
|
|
651 |
|
00:55:30,700 --> 00:55:31,000 |
|
statistic. |
|
|
|
652 |
|
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:34,900 |
|
That's number eight. |
|
|
|
653 |
|
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:43,100 |
|
So the answer is C is the correct answer. So |
|
|
|
654 |
|
00:55:43,100 --> 00:55:48,140 |
|
straightforward calculations for C and D gives C |
|
|
|
655 |
|
00:55:48,140 --> 00:55:51,260 |
|
correct answer for both seven and eight. |
|
|
|
656 |
|
00:55:54,240 --> 00:55:59,300 |
|
So C is correct for each one. Now 9. |
|
|
|
657 |
|
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:15,240 |
|
In 9, the company tests to determine at 5% level |
|
|
|
658 |
|
00:56:15,240 --> 00:56:18,680 |
|
of significance whether the population proportion |
|
|
|
659 |
|
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:22,850 |
|
has changed. from the previous study. As it |
|
|
|
660 |
|
00:56:22,850 --> 00:56:24,910 |
|
changed, it means we are talking about two-tiered |
|
|
|
661 |
|
00:56:24,910 --> 00:56:30,750 |
|
tests. Which of the following is most correct? So |
|
|
|
662 |
|
00:56:30,750 --> 00:56:33,750 |
|
here we are talking about two-tiered tests and |
|
|
|
663 |
|
00:56:33,750 --> 00:56:39,210 |
|
keep in mind your Z statistic is 1.093. And again, |
|
|
|
664 |
|
00:56:39,470 --> 00:56:43,350 |
|
we are talking about two-tiered tests. So my |
|
|
|
665 |
|
00:56:43,350 --> 00:56:44,690 |
|
rejection regions are |
|
|
|
666 |
|
00:56:48,170 --> 00:56:53,150 |
|
Negative 196, critical values I mean. So the |
|
|
|
667 |
|
00:56:53,150 --> 00:56:58,230 |
|
critical regions are 1.96 and above or smaller |
|
|
|
668 |
|
00:56:58,230 --> 00:57:07,550 |
|
than minus 1.96. Now, my z statistic is 1.903. Now |
|
|
|
669 |
|
00:57:07,550 --> 00:57:12,610 |
|
this value falls in the non-rejection region. So |
|
|
|
670 |
|
00:57:12,610 --> 00:57:14,310 |
|
we don't reject the non-hypothesis. |
|
|
|
671 |
|
00:57:16,900 --> 00:57:21,400 |
|
Ignore A and C, so the answer is either B or D. |
|
|
|
672 |
|
00:57:22,260 --> 00:57:26,360 |
|
Now let's read B. Don't reject the null and |
|
|
|
673 |
|
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:28,820 |
|
conclude that the proportion of employees who are |
|
|
|
674 |
|
00:57:28,820 --> 00:57:31,600 |
|
interested in self-improvement course has not |
|
|
|
675 |
|
00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:32,100 |
|
changed. |
|
|
|
676 |
|
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:40,060 |
|
That's correct. Because we don't reject the null |
|
|
|
677 |
|
00:57:40,060 --> 00:57:42,900 |
|
hypothesis. It means there is no significant |
|
|
|
678 |
|
00:57:42,900 --> 00:57:45,760 |
|
difference. So it has not changed. Now, D, don't |
|
|
|
679 |
|
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:47,540 |
|
reject the null hypothesis and conclude the |
|
|
|
680 |
|
00:57:47,540 --> 00:57:49,760 |
|
proportion of Obliques who are interested in a |
|
|
|
681 |
|
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:52,700 |
|
certain point has increased, which is incorrect. |
|
|
|
682 |
|
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:57,960 |
|
So B is the correct answer. So again, since my Z |
|
|
|
683 |
|
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,080 |
|
statistic falls in the non-rejection region, we |
|
|
|
684 |
|
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:04,380 |
|
don't reject the null hypothesis. So either B or D |
|
|
|
685 |
|
00:58:04,380 --> 00:58:07,350 |
|
is the correct answer. But here we are talking |
|
|
|
686 |
|
00:58:07,350 --> 00:58:12,190 |
|
about none or don't reject the null hypothesis. |
|
|
|
687 |
|
00:58:12,470 --> 00:58:14,310 |
|
That means we don't have sufficient evidence |
|
|
|
688 |
|
00:58:14,310 --> 00:58:17,610 |
|
support that there is significant change between |
|
|
|
689 |
|
00:58:17,610 --> 00:58:20,670 |
|
the two proportions. So there is no difference. So |
|
|
|
690 |
|
00:58:20,670 --> 00:58:23,270 |
|
it has not changed. It's the correct one. So you |
|
|
|
691 |
|
00:58:23,270 --> 00:58:29,890 |
|
have to choose B. So B is the most correct answer. |
|
|
|
692 |
|
00:58:30,830 --> 00:58:35,600 |
|
Now, 10, 11, and 12. Talking about constructing |
|
|
|
693 |
|
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:41,700 |
|
confidence interval 99, 95, and 90%. It's similar. |
|
|
|
694 |
|
00:58:42,620 --> 00:58:46,140 |
|
And as we mentioned before, 99% will give the |
|
|
|
695 |
|
00:58:46,140 --> 00:58:50,940 |
|
widest confidence interval. And the answers for |
|
|
|
696 |
|
00:58:50,940 --> 00:59:04,300 |
|
these are 14, 11, 14, is negative 0.8 to 20%. For |
|
|
|
697 |
|
00:59:04,300 --> 00:59:11,720 |
|
11, 0.5, negative 0.5 to 17. For 90%, negative 0.3 |
|
|
|
698 |
|
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,420 |
|
to 0.15. So this is the widest confidence |
|
|
|
699 |
|
00:59:15,420 --> 00:59:22,220 |
|
interval, which was for 99%. So similar as the |
|
|
|
700 |
|
00:59:22,220 --> 00:59:26,360 |
|
previous one we had discussed. So for 99, always |
|
|
|
701 |
|
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:32,230 |
|
we get The widest confidence interval. Any |
|
|
|
702 |
|
00:59:32,230 --> 00:59:37,490 |
|
question? That's all. Next time shall start |
|
|
|
703 |
|
00:59:37,490 --> 00:59:41,350 |
|
chapter 12, Chi-square test of independence. |
|
|
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|