标题：陶福禄
个人简介
陶福禄.男，1970年生，博士，中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所研究员，中国科学院‘百人计划“和“引进国外杰出人才”入选者(2008年)。1999年于中国科学院生态环境研究中心获生态学专业博士学位。1999-2001年在中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所、农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室先后任助研和副研究员。2001-2008年间，先后在日本农业环境技术研究所和日本筑波大学任特别研究员。2001年获国际“START”青年科学家奖。已在国内外发表学术论文60多篇， 其中国际SCI核心期刊  收录论文20多篇，EI收录论文7篇。参加编辑出版专著3部。Open Forest Science Journal、&laquo;中国农业气象&raquo; 编委，国际多种学术刊物论文审稿人。
研究领域和研究方向
主要研究领域为生态系统生态学、全球变化生态学和农林气象学。长期从事区域生态系统演化的机制、模拟及生态安全阈值研究；区域生态水文过程对人类活动和全球变化响应的机理、模拟和预测研究；气候变化、气象极端事件及其对自然和农业生态系统的影响评估和适应对策研究；气候变化和土地利用变化对农业水资源、农业生产和粮食安全的风险概率预测研究；气候变化的阈值及危险水平研究；季节气候变化、农业旱涝灾害和粮食生产安全预警系统研究。
近期科研进展
近年来，主持和参加科技部“973”项目、中科院“百人计划”项目、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项、国家基金委面上项目等。收集整理多源资料，建立了农业多要素多尺度长期历史数据库，发展了系列先进的理论方法和模型系统，在我国农业耕作系统、农业水资源和农业生产对季节、年间气候变率和长期气候变化响应的事实、机制、规律及预测研究方面有多项创新成果。针对困扰当前气候变化影响预测研究中的不确定性问题，发展了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合概率预测的理论方法，研发了新一代气候变化影响评价工具“区域农业对气候变化响应的超集合预测系统”，
率先开展了气候变化影响的概率评价和预测研究。在大尺度作物模型的发展和气候变化影响评价研究的不确定问题上取得重要突破。研究论文被Nature, PNAS等国际知名期刊和IPCC等国际重要报告广泛引用和高度评价。
代表论著
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change in China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1 
Tao, Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China. Climatic Change, 105,409-432.
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062. 
Tao Fulu, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116. 
Tao, Fulu, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 93, 433–445. 
Tao, Fulu, Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use in China: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale in China and the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 83–94. 
Tao, Fulu, Yokozawa, M., Zhang, Z., Hayashi, Y., Ishigooka, Y. 2008. Land surface phenology dynamics and climate variation in the North East China Transect (NECT), 1982–2000. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 29, 5461–5478. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi, Z. Zhang. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 82–92. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi. 2005. Remote Sensing of Crop Production in China by Production Efficiency Models: Models Comparisons, Estimates and Uncertainties. Ecological Modelling, 183, 385–396. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2005. A Perspective on Water Resources in China: Interactions between Climate Change and Soil Degradation. Climatic Change, 68, 169–197. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Hayashi, H. Grassl, C. Fu. 2004. Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with East Asia monsoon and EL NI&Ntilde;O southern oscillation. Climate Research, 28: 23–30. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2003. Changes in soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118, 251–261. 
Tao, Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2003. Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China. Agricultural Ecosystem & Environment, 95, 203─215. 
Tao, Fulu, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2002. Soil vulnerability and sensitivity to acid deposition in China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 140, 247─260. 
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2001. Critical Loads of acid deposition for ecosystems in South China ─ Derived by a new method. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 130, 1187─1192. 
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2000. Critical Loads of SO2 dry deposition for ecosystems in South China and theirs exceedance. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 124, 429─ 438. 
Tao, Fulu, Z. Feng. 2000. Terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition in South China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 118, 231─243.