Shaping the producer's problem : essays on land-use zoning and certification in the sustainability of Brazilian oil palm and coffee

This dissertation examines the effects of initiatives aiming to to govern agricultural commodity production. The overall motivating question of this work is: How can public and private governance affect environmental outcomes of agro-industrial/agricultural producers? To address this question, I consider two high value perennial commodity crops (oil palm and coffee) in Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse whose actions and reactions can affect producer livelihoods and consumer prices across the world. First, I evaluate the extent to which a public governance program -- centered around an agro-ecological zoning initiative -- achieved its goal of deforestation-free oil palm development. This study assesses whether a government sponsored Sustainable Palm Oil Production Program intended to support deforestation-free oil palm development has achieved its stated goal. I examine the land-use history of the crop between 2006 and 2014 within the dominant commercial oil palm production region in Brazil (Para state) and the congruence of actual development with the areas targeted by the program's 2010 agro-ecological zoning program. Despite low and declining deforestation rates associated with oil palm expansion in Para throughout this time period, our results also show a low area of oil palm development overall compared with reported land suitability. To explore potential contributing factors to the patterns observed in the first chapter, I conducted semi-structured interviews with researchers, company representatives, and government officials involved in the sector to characterize the perceived factors influencing oil palm development and the role of agro-ecological suitability mapping among them. One refrain from these interviews is that high relative production costs constrain growth. To elaborate on those findings, in the following chapter I evaluated the economic rationale and constraints for oil palm production in Brazil. Based on land rent modeling studies for Amazonian cattle, pasture, and timber, I developed a model that accommodates oil-palm-specific values and input-output relationships. Using data from interviews and secondary studies to simulate ranges for the expected private profitability of oil palm in Brazil, I then characterize how these variables within their plausible ranges may influence observable land-development decisions and to evaluate under which conditions we may expect oil palm -- and potential deforestation pressure -- to expand in Brazil. I elaborate on each of these variables and conclude by characterizing ongoing market and policy trends that could shift expected outcomes, e.g., land tenure regularization, acceleration of oil palm genetic research, and investments in strategic transportation infrastructure. Finally, I examine how a voluntary, private-governance tool — eco-certification — performed in influencing coffee quality during a nine year period. Using a fixed effect panel analysis of 485 farmplots from 2008-2016, I evaluate the links between the Rainforest Alliance certification adoption and coffee quality as measured by the partner cooperative, while controlling for variations in farmplot temperature and precipitation over time. The results indicate that we can rule out changes greater than 2-5 percentage point change in the share of high and low quality deliveries from the farmers to the cooperative. Even small effect sizes in the composition of quality among deliveries can have consequential impacts on farmer revenues, depending on farm size and the costs of the certification pursued. This work further provides an empirical estimate of the effects of short-term changes in temperature on coffee production outcomes as a contrasting measure. Throughout all pieces of this work, I aim to offer insight into both the effects of these governance programs and also the processes through which they influence producer outcomes.

Advisor: Burke Marshall 
Lambin Eric F. 
Curran Lisa Marie
Naylor Rosamond