How financial aid impacts postsecondary pathways for diverse populations

My dissertation examines the role of financial aid in improving students' postsecondary pathways. Each of the three papers in my dissertation use regression discontinuity designs to produce rigorous causal estimates of financial aid on disparate populations and, in some cases, outcomes heretofore not studied in the literature. In my first paper, co-authored with Eric Bettinger, Laura Kawano, and Bruce Sacerdote, I examine the long-term impacts of a state-based merit-aid program that focuses on low- to middle-income students. We find that Cal Grant receipt can shift the sector of postsecondary attendance, and has positive impacts on bachelor degree completion. In a finding new to the literature, we also estimate positive impacts on earning a graduate degree among low-GPA students. Cal Grant eligibility also appears to increase in-state residency and wages, though some estimates are fairly imprecise. Ultimately, we find that financial aid programs that rely on both need and merit eligibility components produce large, positive impacts on many educational outcomes and suggestive impacts on labor force outcomes. My second paper tests the role of financial aid in promoting degree attainment for "non-traditional" students, a broad definition that typically includes those who may be older, independent, enrolled part-time, or working significant hours. I investigate the role of financial aid for non-traditional students by studying the Competitive Cal Grant program. I find that award eligibility increases bachelor degree completion by four percentage points among students who indicate a preference for for-profit colleges on their FAFSA. Impacts on degree attainment for all other groups are either indistinguishable from zero or not robust to model specification. A simple cost-benefit analysis of expenditures per degree earned suggests that the Competitive award program is less efficient than prior financial aid programs studied in the literature. Along with the relatively weak effects found in other studies of workforce development programs, these findings highlight the challenges governments face in promoting human capital investment for older, less-educated adults. My last paper, co-authored with Mike Hurwitz and Jonathan Smith, examines the college pathways of high-performing Hispanic students. We investigate the College Board's National Hispanic Recognition Program (NHRP), which recognizes the highest scoring 11th grade Hispanic students on the PSAT/NMSQT, as a potential mechanism of improving college choice and completion. Eligibility enables a set of participating colleges to directly identify, recruit and offer enrollment incentives towards these students. This early outreach shifts Hispanic enrollment towards a small number of out-of-state, public flagships, all of which offer larger financial incentives for attendance. NHRP shifts the geographic distribution of where students earn their degree, and also increases overall bachelor's completion among Hispanic students who traditionally have had lower rates of success. These results demonstrate that college outreach coupled with financial aid can have significant impacts on the enrollment choices of Hispanic students and can serve as a policy lever for colleges looking to draw academically talented students.

Keywords: Education.
Advisor: Bettinger Eric 
Dee Thomas S. (Thomas Sean) 
Loeb Susanna