Return Migration Among Latin American Elderly in the U.S.: A Study of its Magnitude, Characteristics and Consequences

The 1965 Immigration Act released a stream of immigration from Asia/nand Latin America that continues to shape the U.S. population/ncomposition. While some of these migrants promptly returned to/ntheir countries of origin, many spent many years in the U.S. and/nface retirement with truncated work histories, legal impediments to/nold-age support programs, and social networks scattered in two/ncountries. This dissertation examines one issue in the aging/nprocess for Latin American immigrants, namely the location of their/nretirement. I examine the extent to which older immigrants return/nto their home countries during later life and whether retirement/nincome plays a role in this decision./nA daunting challenge in studying this topic is data limitations./nThe migration literature notes numerous inconsistencies across data/nsources due to their different strengths and limitations. To/naddress this issue, I do an in-depth examination of the magnitude/nand characteristics of return migration among older Mexican immigrants using multiple data sources to assess the consistency of the outcomes. In/nchapter 2, I discuss the rate of return migration among Mexican/nimmigrants aged 50 years and their characteristics compared to their/nU.S.-residing counterparts using the Integrated Public-Use Microdata/nSeries (IPUMS) for Mexico, the National Survey of Demographic/nDynamics (ENADID), and the Mexican Health and Aging Survey (MHAS)./nI find that the five-year incidence of return migration from the U.S. to Mexico ranges from two percent when generated using IPUMS Mexico to six percent when using the MHAS. However, while the rate of return migration among/nthis population is inconsistent across data sources, certain/ncharacteristics are not. All data sources suggest that return/nmigrants are predominantly male and have intermediary levels of/neducation. Characteristics that are inconsistent across data/nsources are marital, employment, and citizenship status./nAside from the magnitude and characteristics of return migration, I/nalso examine one possible reason for return migration during later/nlife, namely higher levels of retirement income. Mexicans with/ngreater retirement benefits may view this income stream as a means/ntoward greater luxury in the home country. Conversely, these migrants/nmay return migrate only upon concluding that they cannot make ends/nmeet in the U.S. Each scenario has vastly different implications for/nthe U.S. economy. I examine this question in two chapters in order/nto take advantage of two forms of data: survey and administrative/ndata. Pooling IPUMS U.S.A. and IPUMS Mexico, I conduct logistic/nregressions to determine if higher levels of retirement income are/nassociated with an increased probability of return migration. I also/ndo a sensitivity analysis to assess possible biases associated with/npooling two data sources. Results from this chapter suggest that/nMexican immigrants with lower levels of retirement income are more/nlikely to return to their home country during later life than those/nwith higher levels of retirement income. This pattern holds assuming/nvarious rates of Hispanic undercount. However, in the absence of a/nnatural experiment, one cannot attach a causal interpretation to the results of this chapter./nThe experimental nature of chapter 4 does enable a causal/ninterpretation. In chapter 4, I use a natural experiment whereby the/nSocial Security Administration substantially lowered the Social/nSecurity benefits of the 1917-1921 birth cohorts due to a mistake in/ntheir benefit calculation formula. These birth cohorts have since/nbeen referred to as the ``notch" generation as graphs depicting/naverage benefit amounts by birth cohort show a visible notch for this/ngroup. In chapter 4, I use this natural source of exogeneity to/nobserve whether the ``notch" generation was more likely to return/nmigrate than those who did not receive these lower benefits. Results/nof this chapter indicate that Social Security benefits do not affect/nthe probability of return migration for Latin American primary Social/nSecurity beneficiaries.

Advisor: Lee, Ronald D