Interactions between global supply chains, land use, and governance [electronic resource] : the case of soybean production in South America

Rapid growth in global soybean demand has had a profound impact on land cover in South America over the last three decades, contributing to a 30 million hectare increase in soybean planted area during this period. Much of this new soybean area came at the expense of native vegetation in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Chaco forests and savannas. The goal of my dissertation is to understand the economic and institutional mechanisms that influence the location and governance of soybean production in South America at multiple scales. In particular, I aim to: i) link changes in international demand, consumer preferences, and macroeconomic conditions to local changes in soybean area in South America through the study of soybean supply chains, and ii) analyze how supply chains create or enforce land use institutions and market mechanisms. My first paper is focused on Brazil at the national scale. I use spatial statistics and cross-sectional econometric models to analyze variation in soybean yields and planted area as a proportion of arable land in each county. I find that soybean area and yields are higher in regions where farmer cooperative membership and credit levels are high, and cheap credit sources are more accessible. Yields decline as transportation costs increase, but planted area is highest in the areas with the largest transportation costs. These results suggest that the organization of the supply chain (the existence of cooperatives and cheap credit sources) can overcome disadvantages from high transportation costs. I also provide evidence that counties with higher soy yields have a higher proportion of land planted in soy, implying that policies intending to spare land through yield improvements could actually lead to land expansion in the absence of strong land use regulations. My second paper is focused at the local scale on the counties of Santarém and Sorriso, Brazil. I use a comparative case study design and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze differences in soybean development in each county. I find that differences in environmental and land tenure institutions in the Brazilian Cerrado and Amazon influenced the historical development of agglomeration economies in soybean production. Where agglomeration economies occurred, they acted to create positive externalities related to prices, information, and access to resources for farmers, which increased the local profitability of agriculture. The organization of the supply chain, in turn, influenced the enforcement of environmental regulations through the type of actors being involved and their sustainability commitments. My third paper is focused at the global scale. I use panel econometric models to analyze variation in soybean trade patterns in response to GM soybean production in exporting countries. I also use qualitative methods to analyze how trade relationships influence soybean producers' adoption of sustainable soybean certification programs through effects on supply chain infrastructure. I find that the rejection of GM crops by European consumers led to strong trade linkages with Brazil and that Brazil's privileged position in European markets facilitated the creation of regional soybean supply chains that enabled Brazilian producers to access premiums for environmentally sustainable production. I conclude that the combination of European consumer preferences for non-GM and environmentally sustainable foods provided a unique conservation opportunity in Brazil by stimulating specialization in trade partnerships that place increased value on sustainably produced commodities.

Advisor: Lambin Eric F. primary advisor. Thesis advisor
Naylor Rosamond primary advisor. Thesis advisor
Curran Lisa Marie
Lobell David
Vitousek Peter Morrison advisor. Thesis advisor