Fertility in Transition in 21st-Century Russia.

This dissertation is a collection of three studies that, together, seek to characterize and explain immense changes in fertility -- both its demographic patterns and the culture surrounding it -- observed over the last thirty years in the Russian Federation./nThe first study uses both descriptive analysis and modeling to examine Russia's fertility path in the Putin era. National and region-level demographic data and region-level economic covariates are used to assess the contribution of tempo and quantum factors to the deep fertility trough observed in the early post-Soviet era, the recovery from that period of low fertility, and a recent downturn in birth rates that has caused a great deal of concern for the Russian state, popular press, and some demographers. The main findings are: first, for first births, a relatively slow postponement transition caused and continues to cause moderate depression of period fertility; for higher-order births, a long period of delayed or forgone births ended only in 2007, after which compensation at relatively older maternal ages began. Second, a simple projection method indicates that completed cohort fertility was only moderately depressed by the fertility shocks of the 1990s, and has already begun to recover. Parity-specific data suggests that the timing and nature of the Putin administration's family policy reforms likely played a role in this. Finally, falling fertility in recent years is likely related to Russia's worsening economic situation, rather than the end of an incentive-driven boomlet; linear regression exploiting regional variation in fertility and the economy demonstrates procyclical fertility./n/nIn the second study, I turn to the culture of fertility, using the Russian case to examine how ideas about the body interact with fertility intentions and experiences during a society-wide transition from early to later childbearing. I employ ethnographic and interview data, as well as internet forum posts, to explore contemporary Russia’s bodily culture and its relationship to fertility. In brief, I argue that persistent beliefs about the fragility of good health; notions of bodily balance; and perceptions of the body as capable of learning and being trained have affected the shape of the postponement transition in Russia in several ways. First, they have contributed to the slow uptake of hormonal contraceptives and continued low rates of abortion of first pregnancies. Second, they contribute to Russia’s low social age deadline for first births; but they have also opened up space for new strategies that allow women to feel confident delaying births to older ages. Finally, I argue that this bodily culture interacts in unexpected ways with the changing doctor-patient relationship and the new availability of medical information to average Russians./n/nThe third study departs from direct consideration of fertility rates and patterns to examine a major component of Russian society's broader dialogue on childbearing and reproductive health: the movement to limit abortion. Specifically, I examine more fully the functions of demographic and moral rhetoric in the contemporary Russian anti-abortion movement. I make three interrelated arguments. First, the use of demographic and moral schemas together serves an extremely important purpose: to expand the scope and type of resources that can be used for biopolitical aims, and thereby generate a robust, rapidly emergent and well-funded anti-abortion movement that enjoys a great deal of attention from both the church and the state. Second, I argue that the combination of these schemas is engendered by, and partially constitutive of, a larger anti-neoliberal, post-secular political project within Russian society, which positions Russia in opposition to the West and Europe. Third, I consider the demographic and cultural significance of these schemas, incorporating the ways ordinary women talk about abortion. I see this as an important step in developing a richer theory of how and why anti-abortion work, and other types of restrictive reproductive biopolitics, matter.

Advisor: Johnson-Hanks, Jennifer