An Economic Analysis of North American Pulp and Paper Markets, and A Competitiveness Study of the Canadian Pulp and Paper Products

North America is the world’s largest pulp and paper producing region as well as the largest consuming region. An understanding of market integration is critical for designing relevant policies since it is important to improve national welfare and ensure long-run competitive market equilibrium. In addition, it is crucial for the Canadian industry to maintain the competitiveness for its pulp and paper products in the world market, because any deterioration in the performance of the Canadian pulp and paper industry will have negative social and economic impact on the well-being of Canada and affect Canadian balance of payment. This thesis contains three essays that investigate the market integration of the combined markets of Canada and the US, and the competitive position of Canadian pulp and paper products in the US market. The first essay presents an econometric analysis of spatial integration of the US and Canada newsprint markets as reflected in newsprint prices. It applies the Johansen multivariate cointegration procedure to test the law of one price for five regional markets (British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, US east, US west) of newsprint using monthly data for the 1988 to 2004 period. Preliminary data analysis shows that all price series are non-stationary I(1) processes. The hypothesis that the Law of One Price (LOP) holds for all five regional newsprint markets simultaneously was not supported by the Johansen multivariate test. The LOP was also tested for national markets, and it was found to hold between US west and US east newsprint prices. The results suggest that there is a single newsprint market in the US, whereas there are several distinct newsprint markets in Canada. The second essay examines the degree of market integration among US import markets for three pulp and paper products, and further analyses the dynamic interaction between US domestic and US import markets. Persistence profile results show that long-run equilibrium exists in the US import markets for three pulp and paper products of interest; moreover, given a system-wide shock, a new equilibrium could be reached in a relatively short period. Forecast error variance decomposition suggests that US markets are critical since shocks to domestic US prices for relevant pulp and paper products explain a substantial amount of movements in import prices. The third essay studies substitution between main categories of imported pulp and paper products and between imported and domestic pulp and paper products in the US market. A restricted translog subcost function approach was employed to derive the elasticity of substitution. The results suggest that Canadian pulp and paper products are still competitive and have maintained their competitiveness in the US market. However the consecutive demand decline for pulp and paper in the US has brought hard times to Canada. It seems that if Canadian pulp and paper industry wants to retain a dominant position in the world market place, it will have to create global reach and develop new markets.

Keywords: pulp and paper
market integration
competitiveness
Advisor: Kant, Shashi
Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna