VictorJuiz/thesis huggingface dataset:
Theorizing outliers: explaining variation in IT project performance

IT projects are temporary organizations of strategic importance. Companies invest large amount of money, time, and resources into business-embedded IT projects in order to change and gain a competitive advantage. Extreme cases of failures were previously only analyzed as case studies, e.g., Denver Airport, London Stock Exchange Taurus, London Ambulance Service.
The research poses an important question: What is the risk of these outliers, that is markedly deviant observations of IT project performance? What causes outliers in IT project performance?
Only very few studies problematized the frequency of outliers directly. Reported numbers range from 33% to as low as 0.2%. The variation has been explained through biases in planning processes of organizations and as artefact of data collection. An alternative explanation is that the true nature of IT projects contains more variation than commonly assumed.
A rich body of organizational, project management, and IT project management literature offers antecedents of outliers. The extant literature falls broadly into three schools of thought: (1) system-centric, (2) event-centric, and (3) process-centric theories of why outliers occurred.
System-centric explanations focus on the question of system design, based on theories of normal accidents and high reliability organizations. Event-centric explanations focus on how organizations respond to rare events that impact the organization, based on theories of crisis management, management of organizational turbulence, and strategic surprises. Process-centric explanations focus on the role of managing uncertainty and risk over time, based on theories of man-made disasters, escalation of commitment to a failing course of action, and the normalization of deviance.
The study is based on the archival research of 4,307 IT projects from 190 organizations.
The findings show that the tail of the cost, schedule, and effort performance distributions is best fitted by a power law, with overwhelming goodness of fit. Moreover, the findings show that system-centric explanations and process-centric theories offer explanations for the thickness of the tail and the odds of an outlier occurring. In particular five variables were associated with outliers: estimated cost and duration, perceived uniqueness of the project, the qualification and motivation of the project team, and the effectiveness of monitoring and controlling.
The results show that outliers are not chance events; they follow patterns that are describable. The study showed how design factors, that are often conceptualized as system complexities, and execution factors, that are often conceptualized as the effectiveness of project processes, explain project outliers. Lastly, the thesis draws implications for research and practice.

Keywords: information technology management
forecasting
risk management
project management
Advisor: Flyvbjerg, B
Aristotle on thought and action

The immediate object is a determinate resolution of Aristotle's position in Nicomachean Ethics 7.3. over the Socratic problem and in particular the possibility of last-ditch akrasia. My approach seeks interpretational constraints and illumination from considering the argument as a structured whole. Moreover, the passage is a point on which larger issues in Aristotle's philosophies of mind, action, and morals converge: the elucidation offered attempts both to frame and throw light on these.
Chapter One makes preliminary moves on several fronts. Firstly it looks briefly at Aristotle's position over last-ditch akrasia in De Anima and Eudemian Ethics. Then it outlines the problems of Nicomachean Ethics 7.3. and classifies previous lines of solution. Thirdly an intuitive picture is given of Aristotle's method and basic stance. Finally some contrasts are drawn between Aristotle's and modern approaches to akrasia.
Chapters Two to Five discuss the four Sections of Nicomachean Ethics 7.3's argument.
Chapters Two and Three take Section 1 and 2 together and consider two major problems of interpretation. Chapter Two asks whether these Sections concern akrasia at all, and, if so, how. I argue that their concern is direct, general (i.e. not confined to some akratic species), and inclusive (i.e. embracing non-akratic phenomena). Chapter Three asks about the interpretation of "exercising knowledge". Firstly the results of Chapter Two are defended; an aporetic discussion of this difficult issue then follows.
Chapter Four examines Section 3. After analysing its structure, it distinguishes three principal issues. I argue firstly that Section 3, like 1 and 2, concerns akrasia directly, generally and inclusively; secondly that the knowledge that the akratic is temporally unable to use (that is 'tied') is his (universal) knowledge of what is worthwhile; thirdly that this failure involves a cognitive failure (I suggest a distortion of the agent's situational appreciation) - and not, as some scholars have recently urged, merely a motivational failure.
Chapter Five, perforce selective, tackles firstly various problems of Section 4's argumentative structure, and then the interpretation of 1147a26-31 (the 'normal case'). Finally 1147a31-5 (the 'akratic case') is examined and a case argued for its offering two syllogisms but only one practical syllogism.
Exponential asymptotics in unsteady and three-dimensional flows

The behaviour of free-surface gravity waves on small Froude number fluid flow past some obstacle cannot be determined using ordinary asymptotic power series methods, as the amplitude of the waves is exponentially small. An exponential asymptotic method is used by Chapman and Vanden-Broeck (2006) to consider the problem of two-dimensional, steady flow past a submerged obstacle in the small Froude number limit, finding that a steady downstream wavetrainis switched on rapidly across a curve known as a Stokes line. Here, equivalent wavetrains on three-dimensional and unsteady flow configurations are considered, and Stokes switching causedby the interaction between exponentially small free-surface components is shown to play an important role in both cases.
The behaviour of free-surface gravity waves is introduced by considering the problem of steady free-surface flow due to a line source. A steady wavetrain is shown to exist in the far field, and the behaviour of these waves is compared to existing numerical results. The problem of unsteady flow over a step is subsequently investigated, with the flow behaviour formulated in terms of Lagrangian coordinates so that the position of the free surface is fixed. Initially, the problem is linearized in the step-height, and the steady wavetrain is shown to spread downstream over time. The position of the wavefront is determined by considering the full Stokes structure present in the problem. The equivalent fully-nonlinear problem is then considered, with the position of the Stokes lines, and hence the wavefront, being determined numerically. Finally, linearized three-dimensional free-surface flow past an obstacle is considered in both the steady and unsteady case. The surface is shown to contain downstream longitudinal and transverse waves. These waves are shown to propagate downstream in the unsteady case, with the position of the wavefront again determined by considering the full Stokes structure of the problem.

Keywords: Exponential asymptotics
Water waves
Free-surface flow
Stokes Phenomenon
Advisor: Chapman, S
Optical beam induced phenomena in semiconductors

This thesis is concerned with the interaction of a finely focussed light beam and a semiconductor. The object of the work is to develop a consistent theory which explains the formation of both the optical beam induced current and photoluminescence signals with a view to using these techniques to characterize semiconductor materials.
Here we extend previous theories by considering a light beam which is focussed through a lens of finite numerical aperture. Expressions are derived which give the distribution of excess minority carriers injected into a semi-infinite semiconductor by the focussed light beam. The injected minority carrier distribution is then used to predict the imaging properties of the optical beam induced current and photoluminescence techniques when used to image electrically active defects in semiconductors. High resolution scanning photoluminescence images of indium phosphide are presented showing a resolution which is in good agreement with theory.
The form of both the steady state and time dependent optical beam induced current in Schottky barrier diodes, planar junction diodes and devices where the p-n junction is perpendicular to the semiconductor surface is derived. Various methods are suggested for measuring the minority carrier diffusion length and lifetime. An extension to previous analyses is given by considering the effect of scanning the light beam, at some arbitrary velocity, on the form of the optical beam induced current collected by a p-n junction either parrallel or perpendicular to the semiconductor surface. It is also shown how the scan speed can effect the imaging of electrically active defects producing a contrast function which is asymmetric and reduced in magnitude.
An analysis of the photoluminescence signal generated from a semi-infinite semiconductor by a finely focussed light beam is given. Various methods based on the photoluminescence technique are suggested for measuring the minority carrier lifetime.

Advisor: Wilson, T
On all fronts: EOKA and the Cyprus insurgency, 1955-1959

Abstract Thesis Title: On All Fronts: Cyprus and the EOKA Insurgency, 1955-1959 Andrew Novo, St. Antony’s College Submitted in Hilary Term 2010 to satisfy the requirements of a DPhil in Modern History On All Fronts is a thesis focused on the EOKA insurgency in Cyprus (1955-1959), which aimed at overturning British rule and unifying the island with Greece. EOKA’s campaign was one of several insurgencies carried out against Britain in the two decades following the Second World War. This allowed British policymakers and soldiers to apply lessons learned in other colonies on the island. These lessons included pursuing a political solution in tandem with military operations, unifying command and control, improving intelligence capabilities, and increasing the number of police and soldiers on the ground. Cyprus also presented distinctive challenges. The insurgency was not inspired by communism, like many other anti-colonial struggles, but by right-wing nationalism. The campaign was also intimately linked to the strategic reorganisation undertaken by Britain after 1945. Retreat from India and Palestine increased the importance of the Middle East and Africa, making a presence in Cyprus central to Britain’s post-war plans. Finally, Cypriot demographics meant that the island’s Turkish minority (some eighteen percent) – supported by Ankara – opposed union with Greece. An ethnic-based civil war on the island was possible, as was a regional war between Greece and Turkey. British policy sought to avoid both of these potential conflicts while maintaining the strength of NATO and positive relations with both Athens and Ankara. Utilizing newly declassified papers from the British government, in conjunction with evidence from Greek-Cypriot sources, this study offers insights into the campaign from the perspective of both insurgent and counter-insurgent forces. Parallel to the military analysis, the thesis addresses the political aspect of the insurgency, demonstrating the deep connection in insurgency war between military operations and diplomatic negotiation. While counter-insurgency operations failed to destroy EOKA, the success of government forces created pressure for a diplomatic solution and highlighted the reality that there were insurmountable military and strategic obstacles to union with Greece.

Keywords: insurgency
Counterterrorism
EOKA
terrorism
Counterinsurgency
Cyprus
Britain
Advisor: Strachan, H
The ethics of research in rapidly evolving epidemics: an international perspective

Background: The world is at risk of epidemics of novel and reemerging infectious diseases. These may be national, regional or international as in the case of Nipah, African Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers, SARS and H1N1 respectively. It is crucial that public health and clinical research is conducted in such epidemics. Yet the conduct of heath research during rapidly evolving epidemics or disasters represents an enormous challenge. In addition to the large number of practical challenges to undertaking such research there are also major ethical issues to consider. However, there is very little understanding of these ethical issues and very little empirical evidence of the views of patients, their families, society and key stakeholders.
Objective: To collect and analyse data on ethical considerations arising in the setting of research on rapidly evolving epidemics posed by the urgent and unpredictable nature of epidemics.
Design: The study was conducted in Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU), Viet Nam and 3 other hospitals in Viet Nam with experience of epidemics. Data were collected by semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders representing research staff, IRB members, patients/family members and study sponsors/funders who have participated in or reviewed research projects on infectious diseases including SARS, H5N1, H1N1, dengue and Hand, Foot, Mouth disease.
Result: A total of 64 interviews with all key stakeholders were conducted. Analysis of the ethical problems/challenges discussed in the interviews led to the identification of three themes 1) International research collaboration, 2) IRB review and 3) Consent. These tended to arise at three levels of relationship: macro (between institutions internationally), meso (within and between institutions nationally) and micro (within institutions and between health professionals and patients).
Conclusion: The issues and types of considerations and their relative importance were raised and/or valued differently by the members of different key stakeholder groups due to their role and experience in research participation. Some of the issues raised also related to health research in other settings. However, many were unique to the setting of rapidly evolving epidemics. Addressing these issues is crucial for successful and appropriate research in the context of epidemics. It is inevitable that epidemics of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases will occur in the future and there is a clear need to undertake crucial scientific research in such settings. It is therefore imperative that we understand the challenges and ethical issues surrounding such research. It is desirable that further research into the ethical challenges identified in this thesis takes place in the inter-epidemic period in order to better prepare for the next epidemic.

Keywords: epidemics; research ethics; outbreak; bioethics; infectious diseases
Advisor: Parker, M
Farrar, J
Thwaites, L
The metaphysics of ineffability

The existence of the phenomenon of ineffability enjoys wide recognition, and numerous examples can be found in the contexts of the philosophy of mind, the philosophy of religion, and philosophical aesthetics. At the same time, however, its philosophical significance is largely denied, which explains the lack of literature on the topic. My thesis aims to fill this gap by offering a systematic account of the metaphysics of ineffability. The structure of the thesis is as follows. After providing some core definitions, the paper proceeds to examine what, if anything, could qualify as an ineffable entity. Three candidates are examined (‘ineffable truths’, ‘ineffable content’ and ‘ineffable knowledge’), the first two of which are rejected, the third of which is endorsed. In the discussion of ineffable truths, I challenge arguments for what I call ‘fugitive’ and ‘excess’ propositions. In the discussion of ineffable content, I challenge the notion of nonconceptual content in the contexts of perception and aesthetics. In the discussion of ineffable knowledge, I clarify to what extent arguments for the distinctness of knowledge-how from knowledge-that can help elucidate ineffability. Finally, I endorse A.W. Moore’s argument for the existence of ineffable knowledge and apply it to the initial examples of ineffability. I conclude that the phenomenon of ineffability must be explained in terms of ineffable knowledge.

Keywords: ineffable knowledge
ineffability
inexpressibility
ineffable content
ineffable truths
nonconceptual content
Advisor: Moore, A
Higher-order semantics for quantum programming languages with classical control

This thesis studies the categorical formalisation of quantum computing, through the prism of type theory, in a three-tier process. The first stage of our investigation involves the creation of the dagger lambda calculus, a lambda calculus for dagger compact categories. Our second contribution lifts the expressive power of the dagger lambda calculus, to that of a quantum programming language, by adding classical control in the form of complementary classical structures and dualisers. Finally, our third contribution demonstrates how our lambda calculus can be applied to various well known problems in quantum computation: Quantum Key Distribution, the quantum Fourier transform, and the teleportation protocol./

Keywords: quantum computing
programming languages
category theory
logic
lambda calculus
computer science
Advisor: Abramsky, S
Coecke, B
X-ray crystallographic studies of glycogen phosphorylase b

The structure of rabbit muscle glycogen phosphorylase b, an important regulatory enzyme in glycogen metabolism, has been studied by X-ray crystallographic techniques. This work was carried out as part of a group project, and the crystal structure of the enzyme had already been solved to 3 Å resolution, using the technique of Multiple Isomorphous Replacement.
A search for additional heavy atom isomorphous derivatives was carried out, and photographic data to 3 Å resolution were collected for a further ethylmercurythiosalicylate derivative, using a screenless oscillation camera. The collection and reduction of this data, and the refinement of the heavy atom positions is described. The inclusion of this data allowed a new electron density map (with figure of merit = O.63) to be calculated, which enabled previously ambiguous areas in the electron density to be interpreted.
Data to 2 Å resolution have been collected on an oscillation camera, using a synchrotron radiation source and cylindrical film cassettes. An intensity gain of up to 13O times, compared to a GX6 rotating anode source, was obtained with the synchrotron radiation source. A reduction in radiation damage, was also observed. The collection and reduction of the 2 Å data is described. The final overall merging R-factor was 15%. Some systematic errors remain in the data, and possible sources of these errors are discussed, and improvements to the data processing procedure suggested. The 2 Å data were empirically scaled to the 3 Å data and have been used in the first stages of the refinement of the phosphorylase b structure.
The contribution of the crystallographic results towards an understanding of phosphorylase b as an allosteric protein is discussed.

Advisor: Wilson, K
Johnson, L
A composite scheme for solving a differential equation driven by a system of time-varying vector fields

Many problems in physics and chemistry are based around the interactions of large numbers of particles. Motivated by this, we consider numerical methods aimed towards the accurate modelling of a 'particle' under the influence of a large cloud of other particles. The trajectory of this 'particle' can be modelled by the solution to an ordinary differential equation driven by a high-dimensional system where the vector field defining the ordinary differential equation is given by the sum of a large number of time-varying vector fields. In this thesis, we shall describe and develop a algorithm for solving such equations.
To make progress, we need to find a way to summarise the large amount of information provided by the vector fields. We do this by performing a three-step simplification; first we localise the problem and expand the vector fields in space using Taylor series, thus projecting the trajectory onto the finite-dimensional subspace of polynomial vector fields of the infinite-dimensional space of vector fields that initially control the evolution of the `particle' over time. We then separate the system into a series of space-dependent vector fields and a time-varying driving path. Finally, we approximate the system's behaviour in time by finding the log-signatures of the driving path and contracting them with the appropriate vector fields, thus producing a flow map.
We consider three existing models and also construct and investigate two new test problems, the Interacting Harmonic Oscillators and Interacting Simple Pendula systems, which are two-dimensional dynamical systems driven by a large number of vector fields, in order to expose the weaknesses in our initial implementations. We then discuss how our implementation could be made faster and more accurate, and how it might be extended for use on higher-dimensional systems.

Keywords: Taylor series
rough paths
high dimensional dynamics
mathematical methods
Advisor: Lyons, T
Moroz, I
Electoral competition and the dynamics of public debt

Why and under what conditions do governments borrow before elections? This thesis aims to shed light on this question by exploring governments' incentives that give rise to political budget cycles, i.e. fluctuations in the budget balance during election times, under different political, institutional, and economic contexts. The argument will be developed in three stages. First, the thesis will explain why politicians may choose to use debt strategically to win elections and discuss and evaluate different models that can explain political budget cycles. One model, a moral hazard type competence model is, as will be shown, particularly suited for this study. It will be extended in stages two and three. The second stage will look at the benefits and costs from public debt, with a particular emphasis on the likelihood of re-election (government popularity), party system polarisation, and sovereign risk. Sovereign risk increases the cost of borrowing and thus dampens the magnitude of political budget cycles; the effect of government popularity on strategic debt is conditional on the degree of polarisation. The third stage will take the motives to borrow as given and examine the effectiveness of debt as a strategic instrument. The less voters attribute responsibility for fiscal policy to governments, the less effective debt is as a strategic instrument. Economic volatility, regulatory density, and economic openness, this thesis argues, reduce this effectiveness and in turn the political budget cycle. Similarly, coalition government reduces responsibility associated with individual coalition partners, and thus the strategic value of public debt - yet this effect is moderated by the distribution of cabinet portfolios. The argument in this thesis is based both on formal models and on empirical, time series-cross sectional, analyses. It is arguably the most comprehensive treatment of political budget cycles and adds to an increasing literature on the contextual determinants of fiscal policy.

Keywords: political budget cycles
budget deficits
elections
Advisor: Hobolt, S
Duch, R