Data-driven decisions in stochastic systems : reliability and efficiency

In Chapters 2-4, we develop approximations for the distribution of regret of multi-armed bandit algorithms. These approximations yield new insights about the exploration-exploitation trade-off in bandit environments. Much of the literature on optimal design of bandit algorithms is based on minimization of expected regret. It is well known that algorithms that are optimal over certain exponential families can achieve expected regret that grows at $\log(T)$ rates with the time horizon $T$, as specified by the Lai-Robbins lower bound. In Chapter 2, we show that when one uses such optimized algorithms, the resulting regret distribution necessarily has a very heavy tail, specifically, that of a truncated Cauchy distribution. Furthermore, for >1$, the $'th moment of the regret distribution grows much faster than poly-$\log(T)$, in particular as a power of $T$. We show that optimized UCB algorithms are also fragile in an additional sense, namely when the problem is even slightly mis-specified, the regret can grow much faster than the conventional theory suggests. Our arguments are based on standard change-of-measure ideas, and indicate that the most likely way that regret becomes larger than expected is when the optimal arm returns below-average rewards in the first few arm plays, thereby causing the algorithm to believe that the arm is sub-optimal. To alleviate the fragility issues exposed, we show that UCB algorithms can be modified so as to ensure a desired degree of robustness to mis-specification. In doing so, we also show a sharp trade-off between the amount of UCB exploration and the tail exponent of the resulting regret distribution. In Chapter 3, we establish strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for the regret of two of the most popular bandit algorithms: Thompson sampling and UCB. Here, our characterizations of the regret distribution complement the characterizations of the tail of the regret distribution developed in Chapter 2. The tail characterizations there are associated with atypical bandit behavior on trajectories where the optimal arm mean is under-estimated, leading to mis-identification of the optimal arm and large regret. In contrast, our SLLNs and CLTs here describe the typical behavior and fluctuation of regret on trajectories where the optimal arm mean is properly estimated. We find that Thompson sampling and UCB satisfy the same SLLN and CLT, with the asymptotics of both the SLLN and the (mean) centering sequence in the CLT matching the asymptotics of expected regret. Both the mean and variance in the CLT grow at $\log(T)$ rates with the time horizon $T$. Asymptotically as $T \to \infty$, the variability in the number of plays of each sub-optimal arm depends only on the rewards received for that arm, which indicates that each sub-optimal arm contributes independently to the overall CLT variance. In Chapter 4, we establish diffusion approximations for the behavior of Thompson sampling and related sampling-based algorithms. In the regime where the gaps between arm means scale as

Keywords: Engineering.
Management Science and Engineering.
Advisor: Glynn Peter
Blanchet Mancilla Jose
Pelger Markus