Present and future climate risks to global port infrastructure and maritime trade flows

Ports are vulnerable to the impacts of climatic extremes and natural disasters, which are expected to become more severe as a result of climate change. The occurrence of hazardous events can damage physical assets (i.e. physical asset risk) and disrupt port operations, resulting in downtime (i.e. downtime risk). The inoperability of ports, delaying or disrupting trade flows, could further result in wider economic losses that could spill over across borders through maritime transport and supply-chain networks (i.e. systemic risk).
This thesis aims to quantify present-day and future climate risks to port infrastructure and maritime trade flows using a novel maritime-economic systems framework and a detailed port-level risk analysis. In doing so, it provides insights into (1) the dependencies between global supply-chains and the maritime transport network, (2) the physical asset and downtime risks that ports face globally from multiple hazards and the trade flows exposed to this (combined called climate risk), and (3) the change in climate risk in the future as a result of climate change and growth in trade, requiring new port expansions.
The maritime-economic systems framework presented in this thesis underlines that ports, maritime transport and global supply-chains are tightly coupled with feedbacks and critical dependencies. In particular, the findings show how every dollar of port throughput is associated with 4.3 dollar of economic activity, and that some 40 ports facilitate trade that is critical for >10% of the domestic economic activity of countries they serve. The results further show that low income countries and small island developing nations are disproportionately reliant on their ports for the well-functioning of their economies, despite the small amount of freight going through these ports, emphasising that an integrated framework, as presented in this thesis, is needed to identify critical links between ports and the economy.
This thesis further finds that the vast majority of ports (86%) are exposed to more than three hazards out of the six considered. The climate risks to ports a result of physical asset damages and revenue losses reach 6.5 USD billion per year globally at present, but is expected to increase by a factor 2.5 – 6.0 by 2050 due to climate change (increasing the risk by a factor 1.7 – 2.2) and the trade growth, requiring 1353 – 5735 km2 of new port expansions. On top of these climate risks, 63 USD billion of port throughput is at risk every year due to port downtime, which could be up to 230 – 500 USD billion by 2050. These findings highlight that (1) adaptation is urgent, irrespective of climate and trade scenarios, (2) new port expansions face large planning uncertainties, which should be accounted for in planning and design, and (3) the value of the trade at-risk is large compared to the climate risk quantified, indicating that systemic risks can be significant if trade disruptions occur and ripple through supply-chains. However, all risk results are sensitive to parameters that determine a port’s resilience, highlighting that local resilience information is needed to refine the risk results, and that the critical resilience parameters vary considerably across ports, requiring tailored solutions to improve resilience.
Altogether, this thesis provides a blueprint for a shift in risk thinking, moving from a port-centric risk perspective towards a system-wide risk perspective of the coupled maritime and economic system. The information provided in this thesis is critical to inform maritime actors of the present and future climate risks they face, which can further guide adaptation decisions, support (long-term) infrastructure planning and design, and build resilience in the global supply-chain network. Ultimately, this will help safeguard the sustainability of port operations, maritime transport and economic development in the near and distant future.

Keywords: risk
ports
trade
infrastructure
hazards
climate
Advisor: Hall, J
Koks, E