When should I switch from switching? Preschoolers' explicitly requested and covertly monitored predictive responses [electronic resource]
Keywords: Psychology

Prior research has demonstrated that younger and older children have different patterns of responses when making predictions about probabilistic outcomes (e.g. Derks & Paclisanu, 1967). Specifically, younger children (three-year-olds and younger) tend to perseverate in making predictions of the more likely outcome, while older children tend to alternate responses. The current studies address the question of whether these different patterns of predictions reflect that older children base their predictions on the explicitly held hypothesis that outcomes alternate, while younger children's predictions are based on an experience-dependent response strength process. The possibility that there are two separate processes that can drive responses, one based on hypotheses held in explicit form and the other based on experience dependent response strengths, each applying in different contexts, has been explored by many investigators. In the relevant studies, fast-paced reactions to stimuli that may not be under the control of, or in the focus of, attention have generally been treated as response strength based. In contrast, responses called for explicitly in an experimental context with little or no time pressure have often been treated as hypothesis based. Different patterns of responses have been observed in contexts when each of these processes are thought to be impacting behavior, with a response strength process resulting in gradual change in behavior depending on the underlying shift in the associatively shaped response strength, while hypothesis driven responses are not necessarily the same as the most associatively favored behavior, and can be changed more quickly if outcomes suggest a particular hypothesis is incorrect. Prior research with adults demonstrates that different processes drive responses in different contexts, but it does not address whether these two processes are differentially likely to impact predictions within the same context at different developmental time points. The question of how these two processes shape responses at different developmental time points is addressed by the current research. Research with older children suggests that they, like adults, apply hypotheses in contexts with stated predictions, based on evidence that older children's predictions change if a different hypothesis is promoted (e.g. Stevenson & Zigler, 1958). In contrast, younger children's stated responses are consistent with the pattern expected from an experience dependent response strength process. However, research specifically manipulating hypothesis use has not included younger children, making it more difficult to draw conclusions about what processes impact younger children's responses. To explore the idea of a developmental difference in which processes drive responses, the current studies manipulate the likelihood of younger and older children applying a hypothesis by measuring two predictive responses on each trial. One measured response is a stated prediction, referred to as the explicitly requested guess, which is a context where an explicitly held hypothesis is thought more likely to be applied. The second measured response is the direction of eye gaze to probabilistic location evidence, and is covertly monitored on each trial. This eye gaze response is not expected to be controlled by applying a hypothesis, especially when children are focused on stated predictions about a different question. The pattern of responses to the eye gaze measure thus serves as a comparison to the pattern of responses in the stated prediction, in which a hypothesis is more likely, but is not necessarily applied. Results from the current studies show that contexts meant to elicit the two different response processes do lead to different patterns of results, and that there are additional differences between younger and older children in the explicitly requested guess. In the first set of studies, children in two age groups (three-year-olds and older children) participated in a guessing game about which one of two animals (dog or cat) would come to visit; after the guess, one of the animals was shown entering through a left or right door on a monitor display. Both age groups initially alternate their explicitly requested guesses. That is, children in both groups are very likely to guess that the animal who will visit on trial two will be the one that did not visit in trial one. However, the two groups differ markedly in how the outcome of trial two affects their responses on successive trials. Older children successfully change their stated predictions quickly when outcomes do not support alternation, consistent with sensitivity to outcomes and an ability to control future responses accordingly, a pattern one might expect if an explicit hypothesis were being considered and tested against outcomes. On the other hand, younger children show only a gradual change in their pattern of explicitly requested guesses, more consistent with an experience dependent response strength process. Thus, the two age groups differ significantly in the pattern of ongoing explicitly requested predictions. However, the two age groups are much more similar in the covertly monitored response of which door they look at in anticipation of the next visitor's arrival, with both groups showing gradual change in behavior over time consistent with an experience dependent response strength based process. Two additional study conditions find similar results for the explicitly requested and covertly monitored responses for the two age groups. The gradual change in behavior in both contexts among three-year-olds suggests that an experience dependent response strength process may drive younger children's predictions even in contexts where an explicit hypothesis could be applied. Older children, however, show a different pattern of responses when a hypothesis and control over responses is more likely, suggesting that these are factors impacting older children's ability to change behavior quickly. It is unclear from the results whether older children's responses in the explicitly requested guess necessarily reflect applying an explicitly held hypothesis from the start of the task. We also consider the possibility that both age groups approach the task initially relying on implicit response-strength based expectations but that older children are then better able to mobilize more explicit forms of cognition and/or cognitive control to alter the basis of their responses than are younger children.