VictorJuiz/thesis huggingface dataset:
Has liquefied natural gas infrastructure development brought about integration between the major global markets for natural gas?
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Cointegration
Liquefied Natural Gas
Thesis

The last six years have witnessed a dramatic surge in world natural gas prices as demand has outstripped supply. This trend may continue as major economies turn from coal to natural gas to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Increasing tightness between supply and demand has left isolated markets vulnerable to price shocks, and the flexibility of natural gas supply has become more important to avoid price spikes in stressed markets. This paper provides an update on the degree of integration of the major natural gas markets around the world. Cointegration analysis is used on markets in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. to determine if liquefied natural gas infrastructure development has brought about a global market equilibrium price. Results indicate that while European and U.S. natural gas prices have closely converged, transoceanic market inefficiencies remain, particularly between Japan and both the United States and Europe.
Hydrologically-Driven Slope Failures: Roads and Landslides
Keywords:  Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences
School of Earth Energy &amp; Environmental Sciences
landslides
Thesis

Hydrologically-driven landslides occur frequently in steep landscapes with sufficient rainfall. It is important to evaluate the factors that commonly lead to slope failure, so that prediction and mitigation procedures can be improved where there is a risk to human life and property. The focus of this report, organized into four sections, is hydrologically-driven road related landslides. The first section covers the underlying processes associated with landslides. The second section reviews landslides from around the world and California. The third section covers the road-related and anthropologically driven landslides. The final section provides an example of slope stability assessment for the Devil's Slide site.
Labor Supply Decisions of the Senior Population: Effect of Changes to the Social Security Earnings Test
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
senior labor supply
aging work force
earnings test
Senior Citizen’s Freedom to Work Act
work after retirement
Thesis

This paper evaluates the effect of the Senior Citizen’s Freedom to Work Act of 2000 on the labor supply of the senior population. The University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) 1999 and 2003 waves are used to model and compare the retirement decisions of seniors before and after the passage of the law in 2000. Using analysis based on a life-cycle model of saving developed by Burtless and Moffit (1985), it is found that retirement probabilities fell for seniors aged 65-69 in the 2003 PSID versus the 1999 PSID in particular at ages 66 and 69, however the change in labor supply in terms of hours of work is more mixed. It is also found that female seniors, seniors with dependents, seniors with spouses still working, and nonwhites retire less frequently. Poor health and being married encourage retirement and fewer hours of work
Microfinance Performance and Domestic GDP Growth: Testing the Resiliency of Microfinance Institutions to Economic Change
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Microfinance
GDP Growth
Outreach
Financial Performance
Thesis

Microfinance has been a topic of much interest recently, in particular the question of whether microfinance institutions can help poor clients while remaining financially sustainable. Recent research has fed hope that they can, suggesting that microfinance institutions are financially resilient to downturns in the domestic marketplace. Not only does this suggest that microfinance institutions may be good investments for reducing portfolio volatility, but that they may also be able to weather financial storms to effectively serve poor clients in unstable areas of the world. Looking at financial performance, however, is only half the story of microfinance institutions’ overall performance. They also seek to maximize help to the poor, or “outreach.” This thesis looks at how both the financial and the outreach performance of microfinance institutions varies with domestic GDP growth. Using panel data from the Microfinance Information Exchange (MIX), and OLS regressions controlling for year and country fixed effects, the analysis finds no significant correlation between domestic GDP growth and microfinance performance. This result suggests that microfinance may be an effective means of addressing poverty even in environments of low GDP growth.
Moderators of the Name-Order Effect: The 2004 Presidential Election in Ohio
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
ballot
name order
election outcomes
Ohio
Thesis

In trying to gauge for which candidates citizens will vote for, pre-election surveys find that the order that the candidates are ordered in the surveys affects the measurements made. This study explores whether the order of candidates on ballots affects election outcomes, as well as whether certain precinct characteristics and ballot features moderate the magnitude of the name-order effect. If candidates whose names are listed first on a ballot tend to receive more votes as the result, this can have important implications for the validity of the results of closely contested races. Various statistical methods have been used to test name-order effects in past elections, but no studies have yet directly compared these statistical methods to one another to see whether they yield different results. Furthermore, very little research has tested for moderating effects of voter characteristics that make name order effects more or less likely to occur. Using data from over ten thousand precincts for the 2004 presidential race in Ohio where name order is rotated randomly across precincts, I used seemingly unrelated regression to examine name-order effects and to test for moderators. Not only did all presidential candidates tend to receive more votes when listed first, name-order effects were most pronounced in precincts using touch screen voting machines, with high invalidation rates, using longer ballots, with many uneducated citizens and with many Spanish-speaking households, These findings have important and largely unheeded implications for optimal design of pre-election surveys and election ballots.
Morbidity, Mortality, and Fertility in Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Global Malaria
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
malaria
human capital
educational attainment
morbidity
fertility
Thesis

Malaria continues to be an obstacle to human capital development in many countries. However, the direct link between malaria and human capital has not been well characterized. This study contributes two novel insights. First, examining the intervention-driven declines in disease prevalence over the second half of the 20th century, I provide a cross-country estimate of the impact of malaria on educational attainment. I find that populations in countries with the highest malaria risk attained approximately 6 months less school than countries free of the disease. Second, I use variation in the deadliness and distribution of the two main malaria strains, P. falciparum and P. vivax, to investigate the mechanism through which malaria acts. While mortality risk does not appear to be a factor, I find evidence that malaria-induced morbidity affects schooling investments through the household fertility decision.
Quantitative Restrictions and Quality Upgrading: The Case of the Multi-Fibre Agreement
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Multi-Fibre Agreement
quotas
quality-upgrading
hedonic regression
fixed effect regression
Thesis

The thesis uses the end of the Multi-Fibre Agreement to test the theory of quality-upgrading, which states that firms facing quotas will export higher-quality products to generate the greatest economic rent from each individual exported good. The Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA) is a set of quantitative restrictions placed by the US on textile exports from Asian nations that began in 1974 and ended January 1, 2005. The thesis constructs a hedonic regression to isolate the quality and price characteristics of goods exported from China, and it creates a fixed effects regression to estimate the impact of quotas on the quality and price of goods exported. The study finds that the end of the MFA led to a 9 percent decrease in the quality of goods exported in previously restricted groups and a 26 percent decrease in the price of goods exported from China. Furthermore, it is the first study to evaluate how the reinstatement of ex ante textile quotas in 2006 impacted the price and quality of Chinese goods exported and found the resulting increase in quality to be 19 percent and the increase in price to be 21 percent (all statistically significant at the 1 percent level). The thesis also generates a theory for how quotas on Chinese textiles lead to a decrease in quality of goods produced by firms in nations that do not themselves face quotas on exports (specifically Canada, Mexico, Italy, El Salvador, and Honduras). It tests this theory using a control and a treatment group based on the groups of Chinese exports that face quotas. The study uses a similar hedonic regression and fixed effects regression analysis to evaluate the impact of Chinese quotas on other countries’ exports. The study finds a statistically significant increase in the price of exported goods after the MFA, ranging from a 4 percent to a 34 percent. Furthermore, it finds a statistically significant increase in the quality of exported goods after the MFA, ranging from 3 percent to 33 percent, for Canada, El Salvador, Mexico, and Italy. This confirms the hypothesis that firms in these countries underwent quality downgrading as a result of quotas on Chinese goods.
Robotic Grasping on the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Robot
Keywords: Computer Science.
Robot hands
Robots > Control systems
Thesis

The STanford Artificial Intelligence Robot (STAIR) project aims to construct and develop robots that can work in real-world environments such as homes and offices, where they will interact regularly with people. To work in such places, manipulation is an essential ability, and one fundamental skill of manipulation is grasping. Robotic grasping has therefore long been a focus of the STAIR project. Because STAIR needs to operate in dynamic and unknown environments, no model of the world or objects to grasp is available; instead, it must perceive all this from its visual sensors. This makes grasping a very difficult problem because data from visual sensors is noisy and incomplete. A robust grasping system for STAIR using only visual input is therefore presented here.
One approach used in the past to solve the grasping problem is to separate it into two components, the first for finding feasible robotic arm/hand grasp configurations, and the second to select the best one of these configurations as the final grasp to execute. This is known as the comparative approach. We build upon and generalize this approach. For the first component, which we denote as “search,” a previously developed image-based classifier that we developed is used to find plausible grasping points, then a search strategy is applied to find feasible grasp configurations. For the second component, which we denote as “selection,” we notice that there are some properties of a candidate grasp configuration that are indicative of good/bad grasps, and that these properties remain consistent across different objects. Moreover, these properties can be easily and reliably computed even if the 3-D point cloud from visual sensors is incomplete. We therefore present a selection algorithm that computes these features for candidate grasp candidates, and using a trained logistic classifier produces a quality score for each grasp. The grasp with maximum score is then executed. Extensive experiments using this grasping system were performed on STAIR. In particular, reasonable performance was found in all three tasks assessed: grasping single objects of various appearances, shapes, and sizes, grasping objects in cluttered environments, and applying the algorithm on a separate robotic platform to unload items from a dishwasher.
Performance was comparable in each case, which indicates that the grasping system is effective in its targeted environments and is generalizable to other robots.
A rocking spine for enhanced seismic performance of concrete buildings with infills [electronic resource]
Keywords: Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Reinforced concrete frames with infill panels is a commonly used building system in many moderate and high seismic regions around the world, particularly in developing countries. In some cases, the frames are designed to resist earthquake loads but the infill panels are rarely ever incorporated in the structural design. Moreover, the layout of the infill can have severe negative effects on seismic performance, which is also seldom considered. This research utilizes state-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering and computational modeling methods to develop a novel technique envisioned as a cost-effective approach to improving the seismic collapse safety in infill frame buildings. The proposed technique uses strong, stiff structural spines that resist earthquake effects through rocking action. The rocking spine system is applicable to both retrofit and new design; however, this work is primarily focused on the latter. The primary sources of overturning resistance are the gravity loads acting directly on the spine and the restoring forces transferred to the spine through outrigger action of adjacent structural members. These include beams framing into the spine and the infill panels constructed in the adjacent bays parallel and orthogonal to the spine. The use of rocking as the primary yielding mechanism reduces the required level of detailing that would otherwise be required in ductile concrete frames, which make the spine infill frame more practical and economical to construct. Additional material and labor cost savings can be realized for taller buildings since deep foundations are not required for the spine system. The project is executed in three phases that focused on the component, building and community scales.
Sexual Harassment Policy and Incentives to Social Interaction
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Sexual harassment
regulation
law
workplace
communication
interaction
gender
discrimination
glass ceiling
Title VII
social capital.
Thesis

Laws discourage both illegal activity and legitimate activity that could be mistaken as illegal, particularly if the penalty is sufficiently high. This paper demonstrates that policies designed to fight sexual harassment can lead to a decrease in appropriate social interaction due to the potential for mistake and the significance of its penalties. The model describes the expected payoffs of communication and how such policy affects them, demonstrating that if the possibility of mistake exists, anti-harassment policy will deter innocent communication. The paper further describes the effects of anti-harassment policy in a hierarchical, two-gender workplace in which social relationships with superiors and colleagues influence whether a worker receives a promotion. The model shows that in this situation, anti-harassment policy primarily harms female employees, and harms them more if they are the minority gender in the workplace. The model holds implications not only for anti-harassment policy but for any area featuring by reporting and the potential for mistake.
Stigma, Fear and Hope: A Model of HIV Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Economic Epidemiology
Economics of HIV
Demand for HIV Testing
Thesis

This paper investigates the degree to which reductions in the price of HIV treatment affect the demand for HIV testing in Sub-Saharan Africa. First, I derive a theoretical model that predicts when an individual will test for HIV, given uncertainty about their health status. I then analyze the assumptions and predictions of the model using data from DHS, UNAIDS, WHO and the Center for Health Policy at Stanford. I find evidence that the reductions in price of HIV treatment substantially increased the demand for testing, controlling for stigma, education levels, and transportation costs.
Testing the House Money & Break Even Effects on Blackjack Players in Las Vegas
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
risky decision
gamble
multi-stage lottery
decision making under uncertainty
Thesis

Building on prospect theory, Thaler and Johnson (1990) observe two effects that govern decision-making under risk. The first effect is that in the presence of prior gains, individuals exhibit increased risk-seeking behaviour. They call this the “house money effect.” The second effect is that in the presence of prior losses, individuals favour scenarios that offer them the possibility of returning to their original level of wealth. They call this the “break even effect.” Their findings, however, were based on hypothetical surveys and small-scale laboratory experiments that lack the realism of decision-making in the real world. In this paper, I determine whether the house money and break even effects apply in a real-world context by observing blackjack players in various Las Vegas casinos and analysing the amount they bet when faced with prior gains and losses. Based on my observations, I find that both a house money effect and break even effect exist. The break even effect, however, is less economically significant and this can be attributed to limitations in my data.
The Aftermath of Currency Crises: Exchange Rates, Money Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates in Asia and Latin America
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
exchange rates
currency crises
monetary policy
Korea
Thailand
Argentina
Mexico
Thesis

After a fixed exchange rate regime is abandoned during a financial crisis, policymakers in crisis-hit countries face the challenging task of managing exchange rates and conducting monetary policies conductive for growth while combating inflation. This paper studies how crisis-hit countries respond differently in the aftermath of currency crises by analyzing exchange rates, money supplies, inflation and interest rates in two Asian countries—Korea and Thailand—and two Latin American countries—Argentina and Mexico. Their post-crisis policy responses result in three different scenarios: (1) an appreciating currency in a low interest rate and low inflation environment as in the Asian economies; (2) leaving the currency depreciated in a low interest rate and extremely high inflation environment as in Argentina; (3) further currency depreciation in a high interest rate and inflationary environment as in Mexico. This paper emphasizes that currency appreciation is a necessary pre-condition for attaining a low interest rate and low inflation environment in the aftermath of deep currency devaluation.
The “Common Lender Effect”: Are Banking Centers Crisis Carriers?
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Financial Crisis
Crisis Transmission
Debt Financing
Thesis

During the late 20th and the beginning of 21st century, a number of emerging countries, which depended on external financing, experienced a series of financial crises. The common lender effect, first proposed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), asserts that a country that shares the same lender as a crisis-stricken country is more likely to also experience a financial crisis. This study adds to the literature of the common lender effect by investigating if the effect is operational despite a lack of correlation between economic fundamentals of the affected countries. The theoretical section of this paper finds that a financial shock abroad can induce investors to decrease their exposure in another country despite the lack of fundamental correlation between the two countries. By improving upon current methods proposed in Van Rijckeghem and Weder (2003) and Caramazza et al. (2004), the empirical section addresses a possible bias from endogeneity problem and provides empirical evidence in support of the common lender effect.
The Integration of the Indian Wheat Sector into the Global Market
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
India
wheat
food price
cointegration
Thesis

World food prices have risen rapidly in recent months. The trend has brought up concerns about how markets in developing nations respond to international conditions. In this paper, I try to determine whether the price of wheat in India converges to the world level. Using monthly prices from the United States of America, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and India over a period of thirteen years, I look for evidence of cointegration among the series. Cointegrated series follow a common stochastic process, and thus can be said to move together. I first test for cointegration without restrictions to identify the number of cointegrating vectors and common trends, and then impose restrictions to see how quickly markets adjust to disequilibria. I find evidence that the world wheat trading centers are integrated, with Australia being the most dominant. The Indian wheat price does not converge with the other four. I next use the Granger Representation Theorem to model the adjustment of the markets to shocks. I find that the Indian market adjusts more slowly to a new equilibrium, but the total magnitude of adjustment is greater. Possible explanations include poor infrastructure, regional segmentation within India, and high levels of government intervention.
Universal Old-Age Benefits in a Multi-Pillar System: Evaluating Incentive Effects in Chile
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Social security
Chile
non-contributory pensions
labor supply informal labor
saving.
Thesis

The purpose of this project is to simulate and measure the potential labor incentive effects of proposed reforms to the Chilean privatized social security system. The potential policy changes would create universal social security coverage by providing non-contributory pensions to the poor who are currently uncovered by any formal retirement or disability insurance. The simulations consider the system of pension support that currently exists for individuals under a given income level, to determine whether or not they respond to the negative incentives to contribute to social security and participate in the formal labor market; they also test the effect on non-contributory pension support on informal saving. Analysis is conducted using household survey data from Chile over the last six years, and a differences-in-differences approach to the discontinuous budget constraint that is created by the policy. The methodology also utilizes data on individuals’ knowledge of pension support programs and attitudes towards social security. Measuring this response aids in considering the potential effects of expanding the non-contributory pension support, as well as the impact of social security policy on the size of the Chilean informal labor market.