VictorJuiz/thesis huggingface dataset:
The Publication of Interest Rate Projections by the Central Banks of Norway and Sweden
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Central bank communication
interest rate projections
Norges Bank
Riksbank
Thesis

The publication of interest rate projections by central banks, a central bank’s own quantitative estimate of future interest rate decisions, is the newest and most controversial method of increasing transparency. Economists and central bankers disagree over whether or not publishing projections help the central bank manage private sector expectations. This paper examines if publishing interest rate projections by the central banks of Norway and Sweden improves the private sector’s ability to predict future interest rates. I investigate the effect of publishing projections on the root mean square error of money market forward rates and on changes in rates in response to interest rate decisions by the central bank. Using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model, I show that publishing projections should improve predictability if publishing provides the market with a clearer signal of future actions by the central bank. However, the empirical evidence suggests the effect of publishing projections may be negligible because interest rates were already relatively predictable and projections from both central banks have performed poorly during the financial crisis.
Theoretical performance evaluations of NMOS double gate FETs with high mobility materials [electronic resource] : strained III-V, Ge and Si
Keywords: Electrical Engineering

As Si CMOSFET technology scales down to nanometer scale, it becomes extremely difficult to keep the same drive current due to limitations of channel mobility [mu], gate oxide scaling and parasitics. Currently, strained-Si is the dominant technology for high performance MOSFETs and increasing the strain provides a viable solution to scaling. However, looking into future nanoscale MOSFETs, it becomes important to look at novel channel materials such as strained SixGe(1-x) and strained III-Vs and new device structures. There are two fundamental problems with these candidates. First, the main advantage of small transport mass to have high injection velocity may be undermined by low density of states which reduces the inversion charge and hence reduces drive current. Second, due to their small effective masses and small band gap combined with high electric fields applied in nanometer-scale devices, large band to band tunneling (BTBT) leakage current is a big concern. To understand the physics and the performance limitation of nanoscale MOSFETs with high mobility channel materials, we have developed first, a new BTBT model which takes into account complete real and complex band structure, direct/phonon-assisted tunneling, and quantum confinement effect, second, a quantum transport simulator and third, a local pseudo-potential method (LPM) to calculate real and complex band structures of strained semiconductors. While the BTBT models in commercially available TCAD tools largely fail to predict accurate current even in silicon, our model is well matched to experimental results of PIN diodes fabricated on Si, Ge and GaAs, and heterostructure SiGe pMOSFETs. We have investigated and benchmarked Double-Gate (DG) n-MOSFETs with different channel materials (GaAs, InAs, InSb, Ge and Si). Our results show that with gate oxide thickness of 0.7 nm, small density of states (DOS) of these materials does not significantly limit the on-current (ION) and high [mu] materials still show higher ION than Si. However, the high [mu] small bandgap materials like InAs, InSb and Ge, suffer from excessive BTBT current and poor SCE, which limits their scalability. InP has significantly higher ION and shorter intrinsic delay at a reduced IOFF, BTBT when compared to Si. Strained (uniaxial and biaxial) InxGa1-x As may have a very good tradeoff between the excellent transport properties of InAs and the low leakage of GaAs. Full quantum ballistic simulations with new BTBT models based on the bandstructures calculated by LPM shows that at a l00nA/ [mu] m Ioff specification, 4% biaxial compressive strained In0.75Ga0.25As (111) NMOS DGFET outperforms other InGaAs compositions because of the excellent transport properties and reduced leakage current with strain engineering.
Tiny buffers for electronic and optical routers [electronic resource]
Keywords: Electrical Engineering

Routers in the Internet are typically required to buffer 250ms worth of data. In high-speed backbone networks, this requirement could translate into the buffering of millions of packets in routers' linecards. This, along with the access time requirement, makes it very challenging to build buffers for backbone routers. There could be significant advantages in using smaller buffers. Small buffers can fit in fast memory technologies such as on-chip and embedded memories. If very small buffers could be made to work, it might even be possible to use integrated optical buffers in routers. Optical routers, if built, would provide almost unlimited capacity and very low power consumption. This work is about backbone routers with tiny buffers. Through analysis, simulation, and experiment, we show that when the backbone traffic comes from slow access links (which is the case in a typical network, as the traces collected from backbone links show), then buffers of size 10-50 packets result in over 80% throughput. We address several theoretical and practical issues in implementing tiny buffers in backbone networks---how different network conditions and load parameters affect the required buffer size, how to maintain the traffic pattern of individual flows across a backbone network, and how to build optical buffers with a minimum number of optical switches.
Uncertainty Assessment Using Stochastic Reduced Basis Method for Flow in Porous Media
Keywords:  Department of Energy Resources Engineering
School of Earth Energy &amp; Environmental Sciences
Thesis

We apply a hybrid formulation combining the stochastic reduced basis methods with polynomial chaos expansions, which has been introduced recently by Nair [1] for solving the linearized stochastic partial differential equation governing single-phase °ow in porous media. We use a generalization of stochastic reduced basis projection schemes to non- Gaussian uncertainty models. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used to model the input log-permeability field; for non-Gaussian input we employ Polynomial Chaos expansion to model the nonlinearity in terms of Hermite polynomials. For the pressure equation, we em- ploy basis vectors spanning the preconditioned stochastic Krylov subspace which efficiently reduces the dimensions of the solution space. Then the Galerkin projection scheme is used to estimate the coefficients of the reduced basis approximations. We present a detailed comparison between high resolution Monte Carlo simulation and the Stochastic Reduced Basis Method (SRBM). We also study the difference between predictions obtained using SRBM with low-order Statistical Moment Equations (SME) and a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM). Natural formations with high permeability variability and large spatial correlation scales are of great interest. Consequently, we examine SRBM for systems with a variance of log-permeability from 0.1 to 3 and correlation scales (normalized by domain length) of 0.05 to 0.5. In order to avoid issues related to statistical convergence and resolution level, we used 9000 highly detailed realizations of permeability for Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We show that SRBM gives reasonably close results with MCS using a small number of Krylov subspace basis at lower computational cost.
Wealth, Education, and Gender Bias: An Investigation into Rising Sex Ratios in Haryana, India
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
India
children
male-to-female sex ratio
gender equality
economic developmentincome
education
households
Haryana
Thesis

Over the past two decades, India has seen a startling rise in the male-to-female sex ratio of children under the age of 7, which has been especially troubling because it has taken place in the midst of rapid economic growth. My thesis aims to investigate why gender equality, often viewed as a consequence of economic development, has not improved despite rising income and education levels. More specifically, I attempt to test the hypothesis that both income and education have positive effects on male-to-female sex ratios at the household level. Using data collected from the state of Haryana, which has among the highest sex ratios in the nation, I regress family sex ratios on household income, landholdings, maternal education levels, including cohort, village, and district controls. Contrary to my hypothesis, I find that income, when separated from landholdings, has a negative effect on sex ratios, while land has a positive effect and education has no effect. The results of this paper emphasize the importance of distinguishing between income and land as different kinds of wealth that have opposing effects on sex ratios. This distinction makes it clear that the net cost of sons relative to daughters, as perceived by their parents, plays an important role in determining sex ratios, and therefore must be considered in any policy discussion aimed at alleviating gender bias in India.
When Schools Have Discretion, Do They Overidentify Students as Limited English Proficient (LEP)? An Econometric Analysis of How Incentives and Constraints Affect the Identification of LEP Students
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Limited English Proficiency
LEP
English as a Second Language
ESL
English Language Learners
ELL
overidentification
fiscal incentives
school funding
Thesis

Limited English Proficiency (LEP) rates among students in public schools grew by nearly 50% between 1991 and 2005. Much of this increase is driven by a similar increase in the percentage of school-enrolled, school-aged children who spoke a foreign language at home over that time period. However, school districts also receive increased funding when they identify a student as LEP and there is no one definition of what makes a student LEP. Thus, schools may overidentify students to maximize their funding. Since all identification has real consequences for students – often causing them to spend time with specially trained instructors, with different peers, and outside a mainstream classroom – it matters whether schools are identifying students purely to benefit the students or partly because of the fiscal benefits. Previous researchers have found that fiscal incentives lead to higher rates of special education identification, but there is no prior evidence on LEP identification. In this study, to determine if overidentification occurs, I use variation across states and within states over time in the discretion that schools have to identify LEP students. I control for Census-based measures of the percentage of students who speak a foreign language at home, state fixed effects, and time fixed effects. My estimates suggest that schools with discretion overidentify students by as much as 2 percent.
A Numerical Analysis of Coordinating Monetary Policy Under New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Can it be Accomplished, How Big are the Effects, and Why?
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
monetary policy coordination
New Keynesian
open economy
nominal rigidities
discretionary policy
deterministic simulation
stochastic simulation
linearized general equilibrium dynamic models
Thesis

This paper tests whether or not gains to monetary policy coordination exist in the New Keynesian two country model proposed in Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002). Major innovations include rigorous numerical analysis that takes advantage of recent techniques proposed by Laffargue (1990) and Klein (2000) and an attention to robustness analysis as advocated by McCallum (1999) by comparing all results to the rational expectations model proposed in Taylor (1980). The major results found are (1) any gains from coordination in Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002) are not statistically significant, (2) a “simple rule” approach to monetary policy produces policy rules that outperform policy based on discretionary assumptions, regardless of the decision to coordination, and (3) the model in Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002) can be characterized by a distinct lack of open economy interaction.
An Empirical Analysis of Return on Investment Maximization in Sponsored Search Auctions
Keywords: Computer Science.
Internet auctions
Electronic commerce > Management
Auctions > Mathematical models
Thesis

In this thesis I empirically investigate whether bidders are maximizing their return on investment (ROI) across multiple keywords in sponsored search auctions. I classify bidders based on the minimum perturbations that must be applied to their bids in order for various conditions to be satisfied.
I show that a large fraction of bidders in the Yahoo Webscope first price data set may be following ROI-based strategies.
Bargaining and Typology: A Theory of Economic Sanctions Success
Keywords: Center for International Security and Cooperation
CISAC
sanctions
bargaining framework
Thesis

Under what conditions do the senders of economic sanctions achieve their policy goals? Scholars and policy makers fixate on the punitive capacity of sanctions, but the costs sanctions impose on targets is only one of several factors that determine episode outcomes. This thesis advances a bargaining framework for sanctions episodes that identifies nine political and economic variables that influence sanctions efficacy. I assert that, in addition to those factors commonly addressed by sanctions scholars, sanctions type impacts the likelihood of bargaining between senders and targets. Then, I statistically analyze 165 sanctions episodes since World War II to demonstrate the bargaining framework’s viability. Finally, I explore the analytical and practical implications of my research. Chiefly, I argue that if sender states are unwilling to compromise with adversarial targets over major policy goals, sanctions alone are unlikely to succeed.
Demand for the Game: The Effect of Competitive Balance and Dynasty Persistence on Attendance in the National Football League
Keywords:  Department of Economics
sports economics
football
NFL
competitive balance
dynasty
Thesis

Every football fan is familiar with the historic dynasties of the 1970’s Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1980’s San Francisco 49ers, the 1990’s Dallas Cowboys, and the 2000’s New England Patriots. This paper studies how such dynasties in conjunction with competitive balance within and between seasons affect demand for the game. I use time series and panel dataset analysis from 1970 to 2007 to test this uncertainty of outcome hypothesis and measure how changes in competitive balance and dynasty persistence affect change in attendance. The data shows that inter-seasonal competitive balance has increased over time refuting the idea that free agency is detrimental to competitive balance. This paper finds that at the league-level, the measures used in the OLS regression do not capture the aspects of league quality that determine change in attendance. At the team-level, I find that intra-seasonal balance has a much larger effect on attendance than either dynasty persistence or inter-seasonal balance. Absolute quality of the team also plays a role in the magnitude of changes in demand. The results lend mixed support to the claim that the league faces a collective action problem requiring the institution of league rules.
Do Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Encourage Technology Transfer? Evidence from Foreign Patenting in the United States
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Thesis

This paper assesses the effects of strengthening intellectual property rights (IPRs) on international technology transfer. It examines the effects of a major shift towards stronger IPRs in U.S. history: the countryís accession to the Paris Convention on May 30, 1887. Specifically, the paper uses a newly-collected data set of foreign patenting rates in the United States to measure changes in technology transfer into the country in response to this landmark treaty. To control for other factors that may have influenced foreign patenting, the paper also examines the effects of changes in domestic patent law (of foreign countries) on patenting by foreigners in the United States, as well as the relationship between trade volume and foreign patenting. The data suggest that the effects of the Paris Convention on technology transfer were surprisingly small and inconsistent. There is, however, a strong and significant correlation between the volume of trade and foreign patenting, suggesting that interaction through trade is a primary determinant of international technology transfer.
Does Free Trade Make You Fat?: The Role of Agricultural Policy and Food Price in Explaining Cross-Country Variation in Obesity Prevalence
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
agricultural support
import tariffs
subsidies
trade policy
liberalization
Thesis

The rise in obesity prevalence throughout the developed world has reached epidemic proportions but most of the growing body of research on the causes of this trend focuses on factors within a single country and ignores the substantial cross-country variation in obesity prevalence that has persisted through the worldwide epidemic. This paper investigates the relationship between agricultural policy and obesity in OECD countries across time and geography, which has several implications. First, if agricultural policy influences obesity prevalence, cross-country variation in agricultural policy could represent a largely unexplored driver of cross-country variation in obesity rate. Second, if agricultural trade policies such as import tariffs and export subsidies influence obesity prevalence, it is possible that “free trade makes you fat” and trade liberalization could have adverse effects on population health. Finally, if agricultural policy is related obesity prevalence exclusively through its effect on food price, agricultural policy variables represent potential instruments for food price which could provide an identification strategy for the obesity “demand” function relating obesity prevalence to food price. This paper explores each of these implications and produces estimates of the effects of agricultural policy and food price on obesity prevalence and caloric supply. This paper finds that both of these variables have statistically and practically significant effects on obesity rate. Liberalization of agricultural trade could have a relatively large effect on obesity prevalence, and cross-country variation in agricultural policy and food price may explain a substantial portion of international differences in obesity prevalence, but these findings have ambiguous implications for policy since free trade and affordable food are still generally desirable policy objectives.
Exchange Rate Targeting as a Monetary Policy Alternative to Interest Rate Targeting
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
exchange rates
monetary policy
Taylor rule
Thesis

This paper examines the use of exchange rates as an instrument in attaining monetary policy objectives, as has been practiced in Singapore since 1981. Our basis for comparison is interest rate targeting. We present a model of the economy and examine the performance of “Taylor rule”-styled interest rate and exchange rate rules in stabilizing macroeconomic variables. We conclude that exchange rate targeting does confer considerable benefits to a small open economy that is highly dependent on trade, but these advantages diminish or disappear entirely for a less trade-dependent economy.
Female Empowerment in Northern India: Effects of the Political Reservation System on Gender Bias
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
India
female sarpanch
son preference
female empowerment
Thesis

The government of India has attempted to address the low status of women in society though a constitutional amendment that mandates a woman must be elected as village leader every third election cycle. Several papers have shown that female reservations have significant effects on local policy decisions, but it is unknown whether the amendment is effective in its primary goal to erode discrimination against women. In my thesis I use uniquelytailored household and village data to investigate whether political gender reservations can decrease sex bias by evaluating changes in female investments of those living in villages with female village leaders. Using OLS regressions, I find that only when a female village leader has financial resources are there changes in sex ratios, immunization rates, and school enrollment that are consistent with greater female bargaining power. However, I also find that maternal bargaining power is correlated to low sex ratios. These results show that political reservations for females must be supplemented with sound financial resources in order to increase women’s status and bargaining power, but doing so without changing maternal sonpreference will not be effective in fixing the skewed sex ratio.
Flat Taxes and Labor Supply in Central and Eastern Europe
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Thesis

This study examines how flat taxes have affected labor supply in the Central and Eastern European countries where they have been adopted. I study a structural relationship among key variables, including tax rates and labor supply. According to the model, work incentives and labor supply increased with the adoption of the flat tax in Lithuania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, and Georgia. In these countries, flat taxes reduced the marginal tax rate on income and thus increased incentives to work. In contrast, the model indicates that Estonia’s labor supply decreased because the flat tax actually increased the marginal tax rate. Latvia experienced no change in the marginal tax rate with the adoption of the flat tax. A surprising finding is that the marginal tax rates are in the range of 60% to 75% in six of the eight countries even after the adoption of flat tax reforms. Actual labor supply statistics suggest the model I use estimates labor supply well for five countries but does not explain all labor supply shifts in emerging economies.
Grandmothers and Granddaughters Revisited: Declines in Health and Within-Household Labor Shares in Kagera, Tanzania
Keywords:  Department of Economics
Stanford Department of Economics
Households
health
economic shocks
family
children
Africa
Thesis

One of the largest shocks to economic opportunity in developing countries is a decline in health. Without affordable, accessible medical care or insurance, households are left to insure themselves against health declines. Using a unique longitudinal data set from Tanzania with several measures of health, I find significant economic and non-economic costs associated with a household member falling ill. When an elderly woman falls ill, estimates suggest adolescent girls living in the same household take up a disproportionate share of the household labor. Adolescent males are not significantly affected. However, I do not find any short- or long-run effect on either the young girl’s or the young boy’s growth or educational attainment.