A clean and plentiful supply of water is essential to a thriving economy, environment and society. Turning on our taps, filling a bath, or watering the garden is something we often take for All the water we use in our day to day lives is taken from natural sources. Water is a finite resource, and its use puts pressure on the environment, which has limited capacity to provide a reliable and resilient supply of water. Enough water reserves of the right quality and quantity are necessary to sustain healthy and vibrant habitats, which are already under pressure from current demands. Society's current use of water is unsustainable. Climate change is affecting us now and this pressure will continue to grow in the future. The amount of water that we reliably receive will continue to change with time. We are facing less water overall, with warmer and wetter winters, hotter and drier summers. Changing rainfall patterns may bring more intense rainfall events and the potential for a greater incidence of drought and flooding. The amount of water that can be allocated sustainably is diminishing even before we consider any impacts from additional demand - whether from the challenges we face through a growing population, increasing food and energy requirements, or the needs of a growing economy. The scale of the challenge is unprecedented. 2.1 The drivers of additional pressure on water resources 2.1.1 Environmental sustainability An environmentally sustainable abstraction regime is essential to support a thriving environment and to protect biodiversity. It is also vital to ensuring a secure, clean supply of water for all users. Society needs a healthy, resilient water environment to be able to support economic growth and for water to be available for people, energy and food security. A resilient and vibrant water environment will help improve wellbeing and will help us to adapt and cope with a changing climate. If too much water is taken from the environment, water supplies for all sectors of use will be less resilient because water resources deplete quickly in dry weather and there will be less dilution of pollutants. Healthy, diverse and resilient wildlife and habitats need clean and sufficient water as well as the right physical environment. If there is too much abstraction, or water quality is not good enough or rivers flow through physically modified channels, then there will be an impact on the ability of wildlife to thrive. Some catchments have unsustainable levels of abstraction now; this includes 15% of surface water bodies and 27% of groundwater bodies. A further 6% of water bodies which are now assessed as 'good status' could deteriorate unless action is taken to prevent this. The Environment Agency continues to identify where abstraction is unsustainable and where action will need to be taken. This may involve recovery of abstraction licence volumes or additional licence conditions to ensure that the water environment is protected. This will affect future water resource availability. Developing a shared long-term approach for environmental improvement and environmentally sustainable abstraction will help regulators and water users to better plan for the future. 2.1.2 An increased population Figure 1 shows where population increases are forecast within England using water company water resources zones. The greatest percentage increases in population growth can be seen in London, and in the south and east of England. Increasing population and government policies on economic growth will mean increasing demands for water. Forecasts used in water company plans show that the population in England is set to increase to over 71 million people by 2055, an increase of over 8 million people when compared with the current population. More homes and people will mean more water using appliances, more water needed to generate energy and produce food, more water to cool data centres, and a greater demand for water-using services such as leisure activities. Helping people understand and appreciate their own water use will be crucial to manage consumption and reduce demand. Figure 1: Household population percentage increase from 2025 to 2055 from WRMP24 forecasts (based on ONS data) Water resource zone Water company % increase in household population Misbourne Affinity Water 18.95 Colne Affinity Water 23.15 Lee Affinity Water 24.43 Pinn Affinity Water 21.84 Stort Affinity Water 26.81 Wey Affinity Water 22.63 Dour Affinity Water 22.91 Brett Affinity Water 14.48 Alwen/3.74 Hereford CU 12.95 3.33 Ross-on-13.52 SE Wales CU 6.47 15.80 15.37 Berwick-Fowberry Northumbrian Water 10.85 Kielder Northumbrian Water 9.81 SES Water SES Water 15.41 22.06 16.91 27.71 15.15 16.64 17.57 18.56 15.11 13.71 Llandinam and dyfrdwy -2.04 dyfrdwy -2.07 dyfrdwy 0.21 dyfrdwy 16.86 Henley Thames Water 16.06 13.79 London Thames Water 18.29 10.73 Swindon and Oxfordshire Thames Water 21.16 Wessex Wessex Water 8.38 East surface water zone 16.52 Grid surface water zone 13.54 13.51 22.73 Fenland Anglian Water 16.26 Hartlepool Anglian Water 4.27 Water 18.30 13.81 10.29 and Gainsborough Anglian Water 13.44 Norfolk 24.02 Norfolk 16.86 15.90 16.03 11.76 16.24 17.14 and the Broads Anglian Water 18.29 Norfolk 15.32 50.83 24.22 31.16 13.65 13.86 13.77 15.43 Anglian Water 16.76 and Cambs Anglian Water 17.60 Bristol Bristol Water 18.66 Cambridge Cambridge Water 22.45 Blyth Essex and Suffolk Water 12.52 Essex Essex and Suffolk Water 20.31 and Suffolk Water 20.15 Northern Central Essex and Suffolk Water 10.65 Portsmouth Portsmouth Water 19.21 9.02 22.79 12.28 26.27 Isles of 13.26 11.60 Southern Water 20.36 11.56 13.06 Isle of Wight Southern Water 11.71 East Southern Water 22.37 West Southern Water 29.43 27.30 14.54 13.36 14.85 14.90 17.02 18.52 17.77 12.98 Forest and Water 15.85 17.79 Water 17.79 13.74 6.91 15.72 17.80 16.37 15.13 11.98 14.92 Whitchurch and 17.78 13.84 Carlisle United Utilities 17.54 5.26 UU-Strategic United Utilities 9.55 Veolia Water P 9.91 2.1.3 Improved water supply resilience The last National Framework reflected government policy to increase the resilience of public water supplies. People need to have a secure supply of water, clean and healthy rivers and a secure sustainable energy supply. The latest round of water resource management plans has led to a step-change in ambition for drought resilience.
By 2040, or earlier, water companies are planning to be resilient to a drought which has a 0.2% chance of occurring in any year (meaning a return period of 1 in 500 years). This level of resilience means that by 2040 the use of emergency drought options such as standpipes will not be needed unless there is a severe drought beyond this magnitude. Improving drought resilience is crucial to safeguard the environment from unnecessary drought measures during a severe drought and ensuring that businesses and communities are not adversely affected by additional costs and disruption. In 2018, the National Infrastructure Commission estimated that the costs of implementing emergency measures to provide households supplies during a 0.2% drought ranged from 21 to 27 billion (between 2020 and 2050 - Preparing for a drier future ). This analysis concluded that it costs more to respond to a drought emergency than to build long-term resilience to the same drought event. For sectors of use beyond public water supply, understanding of drought resilience is variable. We will work with all sectors to help raise awareness of drought risk and will aim to identify standards of resilience to plan for. Even if some sectors do not require a high resilience standard, all water users should have an increased awareness of the pressures facing water resources. The resilience of supplies, which has been reliable up to this point, may not be guaranteed in the future. Water using sectors outside of the water industry should engage with local and regional groups so they can consider their future water needs and be part of the planning process and delivery of solutions. 2.1.4 Climate change and water resources Climate change is already being felt through the impacts of more extreme weather events, including floods and drought. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of hotter summers and combination hot and dry conditions like those experienced during 2018 and 2022. 2022 was the warmest year on record for England, with 2023 being the second warmest. Six of the 10 years in the most recent decade, 2014-2023, have been in the top ten warmest: 2014, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023. Natural water resource availability will change with the climate. Reduced rainfall may disproportionately impact natural river flows in some areas, particularly where the underlying geology does not support flows sustained by groundwater. The yearly window for groundwater recharge may also become shorter and more vulnerable, and hotter temperatures will increase both the demand from vegetation and the loss of water through evaporation. The exceptionally high intensity rainfall events experienced in recent years across much of the country is a signal of the increasing weather extremes associated with a changing climate. This trend, towards more rain falling in heavy events, is expected to continue, and winter rainfall may increase overall. Summer flash flooding may also become more common. Heavier rainfall events will increase pollutant and nutrient runoff and increase the discharge of sewage effluent from sewage outfalls. Changes to drought characteristics such as intensity and duration vary regionally, with the most pronounced increases expected in the south and southeast of England. Implications for water management may include longer periods or sharper rises in the concentrations of contaminants in rivers as less water is available for dilution. Algal blooms could also be more prevalent during prolonged dry weather. This, in turn may affect the availability of water for use and may impact the level of treatment required. With more frequent droughts and changing drought characteristics it may be harder for farmers to plan for the growing season. Some crops grown today may be easier to grow or may be unsuited to higher temperatures. Mean annual flows for most southern catchments in England are expected to continue to decrease from 1981 to 2080. Trends in the northern half of the country are not as well defined. Projected decreases will have significant implications and could lead to water scarcity issues in the affected regions. Seasonal variations in mean monthly flows are also likely. Average summer river flows may decrease leading to reduced water availability and lower river water quality. Average winter flows may increase. provides around 30% of England's drinking water. Sea level rise and associated tidal surges from climate change may affect the quality of groundwater supplies, as salt water intrudes further into coastal aquifers. Whilst the net future annual average recharge is predicted to remain stable, climate change is likely to shorten the recharge season with greater amounts of recharge in a shorter period. Summer rainfall may be lower, meaning the recharge season is delayed as the soil has to be wetted up. This could make aquifers more vulnerable to drought if one or two months within the recharge season experience lower than average rainfall. The lead-in time for reaching drought status could also be reduced if the recharge window decreases. This could have implications for water resources planning and responding to droughts in the future. The increased vulnerability to drought could have knock-on impacts on surface water features fed by groundwater such as rivers, lakes, wetlands and winter storage. These predictions will have an impact on available water supplies, including how they are managed across all sectors of use. Climate change will also likely impact peoples' water use and behaviours, particularly during peak-use periods in the summer. Unconstrained demand for water has been found to increase by 20% or more when temperatures exceed 26 degrees ( UKWIR , 2023 ). The demand for water for irrigation will change, and potentially the type of crops grown. All of these factors will change the geographical and temporal availability of water, and the way it needs to be managed in the future. 2.1.5 Land use pressures Over the next 30 years, land use will continue to change. Given the increasing population and need for housing, there will be increase in housing development across the country, with 1.5 million new homes planned over the next 5 years alone.
More land may be needed for food production, biomass and biofuels. The Environment Act has a target of at least 16.5% tree cover in England by 2050. The Forestry Strategy for England sets out that to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 the UK will need to accelerate rates of tree establishment to 30,000 ha a year. Changes in land use will impact on the water environment in a variety of ways, changing runoff and infiltration rates, changing the flood risk and potentially impacting on water quality and aquatic ecosystems. As pressures on water resources grow, policy makers will need to consider how best to ensure that changes in land use do not negatively impact on water resources and the water environment and how changes could bring additional environmental benefits. This could be action to reduce run-off, including sustainable drainage, rainwater management and water infrastructure design within new developments; actions to reduce pollution from land use change and from more intensive farming; and also, action to improve biodiversity. The government has launched a consultation on its Land Use Framework , a new approach to empowering decision makers with the toolkit to protect the most productive agricultural land and boost food security. This should provide an opportunity to ensure that the impacts on and opportunities for water resources management are fully considered in policy decisions. 2.2 Assessing the pressures - a scenario-based approach The National Framework takes a scenario-based approach to model the impact of the public water supply pressures and quantify how different pressures drive the deficit. Access to the detail of the water resource modelling and the assumptions used can be obtained by stakeholders through our water resources modelling interactive dashboard and from our water resources modelling technical report and appendix B. Water resources modelling has looked at pressures on public water supplies across a range of demand and climate scenarios and environmental needs. It allows us to assess the range of uncertainty in different pressures and enables us to find the potential range of deficits we may face. The modelling work enables the National Framework to provide an updated view on future public water supply needs and will set the scene for the next round of water company planning ( WRMP29 ). We have also forecast non-public water supply needs (water that is abstracted directly from the environment for uses other than public water supply). These forecasts are based on recent actual abstraction with a range of sector-specific growth projections applied. Fully licensed and recent actual abstraction figures can be adjusted for how much of the water is used and therefore considered 'consumptive' and not returned to the environment (meaning adjusted for consumptiveness). The assessment only includes sectors that are part of the licensing system, therefore forecasts do not represent any new licensed abstraction emerging in locations where it does not take place already. Figure 2: Summary of public water supply and environmental needs scenarios and assumptions used within the water resource modelling The National Framework has looked at a range of future water needs to 2055. Water resources modelling scenarios are for public water supply only. Water availability (supply) and demand are expressed in annual terms during a drought or dry year. The modelling is based on 4 scenarios. Under Low, Central and High scenarios assume WRMP24 supply options to be 100% delivered. All the scenarios assume WRMP24 resilience. Water companies in Wales are not included in national figures, but those that fall in the Water Resources West region are included in maps and regional summaries. Where data is taken from WRMPs , the modelling uses the latest data submission, reflecting a hybrid of revised draft and final data. Do nothing This is the worst-case scenario that assumes no action is taken after 2030. It assumes actions from 2025-2030 as outlined in water company WRMP24s are fully delivered, but no demand management and resource development occur after 2030. As such, per capita consumption ( PCC ), leakage and non-household demand remain the same as 2030. Population is based on WRMP24 forecasts for 2055. There are no demand or supply side drought actions included (such as temporary use bans ( TUBs ) or drought permits). Public water supply reductions to meet climate and environmental needs are as per WRMP24 at 2050/55. High water needs This scenario aims to reflect the reasonable worst case for public water supply needs. It assumes the highest reduction in licensed abstraction for public water supply to meet full environmental requirements and assumes reasonable worst case climate change impacts. It includes the highest population growth forecasts. It assumes demand management only achieves 60% of the planned savings. This scenario includes drought demand savings associated with media campaigns and TUBs as a proportion of WRMP24 and only non-damaging supply side drought actions. Central water needs This scenario includes meeting national targets such as 15% non-household demand reduction, 50% leakage reduction and 110 litres per head per day (l/h/d) PCC by 2050. It uses WRMP population growth forecasts. It assumes the estimated reduction in public water supplies to meet both the environmental needs under an intermediate pathway between current and full requirements and climate change impacts associated with 2 to 3.7 deg C of warming. It includes drought permits and orders as per WRMP24 and drought demand savings associated with media campaigns and TUBs as a proportion of WRMP24 . Low water needs This scenario aims to reflect the best case for water needs or deficits. It shows the lower end of the possible range. It includes future demand ambition and lower climate change impacts. It reflects public water supply reductions under the current regulatory and statutory environmental requirements. It assumes lower population forecasts, 60% leakage reduction, 20% non-household demand reduction and PCC of 100 l/h/d. It includes drought permits and orders as per WRMP24 and drought demand savings associated with media campaigns and TUBs as a proportion of WRMP24 .
We commissioned modelling work to assess a range of environmental requirements under a range of scenarios. The scenarios are described in Figure 3 and high-level modelling results presented and discussed in section 3.1. Figure 3: Summary of scenarios used in environmental destination modelling The National Framework has developed three environmental destination planning scenarios which consider a range of environmental requirements: Baseline - Current regulatory approach in today's climate Changes to water abstraction are based on our current regulatory approach. River basin management plans ( RBMPs ) set out environmental objectives (under WFD and ). We use this as the baseline to estimate environmental water requirements in today's climate. Current 2050/2080 - Current regulatory approach under a changing climate Under this scenario our regulatory approach remains the same as above, but we assess this taking account of predicted climate change impacts. This means that we continue to protect the same percentage of natural flow for the environment, and that flow and groundwater balance tests evolve as a proportion of natural flows as these are altered by the impacts of climate change. Full 2050/2080 - Full environmental requirements under a changing climate Under this scenario, we apply our current regulatory approach plus additional environmental protection for SSSI rivers and wetlands, principal salmon and chalk rivers in line with government policy and supported commitments and assess this taking account of predicted climate change impacts. Flow and groundwater balance tests evolve as a proportion of natural flows as climate change alters those flows. For 2050/2080 scenarios we have used two predictions of climate change to represent a range of natural low flow impacts that climate change might result in. We term these 'the drier range' where, for the majority of England, climate change might result in the biggest reduction in natural low flows and the 'wetter range' where climate change might result in the least reduction in natural low flows. It is important to note that predicted natural flow changes as a consequence of climate change vary across England. 2.3 Adaptive planning The future is uncertain, and the further we look ahead the more our forecasts may deviate from what happens. Climate change impacts may be more or less severe than thought. Population growth may be higher or lower in each area. New, unforeseen demands may need to be met, and the needs of the environment may change. Adaptive planning enables regional groups, water companies and other sectors of use to manage this future uncertainty. An adaptive plan will contain several pathways with clear decision-points based on criteria set out in the plan. To enable adaptive planning, we expect regional groups and water companies to: consider the range of future scenarios and pathways to meet them set out decision points between different pathways to manage future uncertainty develop monitoring plans to track progress against the expected pathway develop clear thresholds and triggers so it is clear when alternative action needs to be taken consider the learning from other adaptive planning processes such as the Flood and Coastal Innovation Programme and use it in planning for water resources Next: 3. How much additional water we need