Seizing the economic opportunity, we will work across government, enterprise agencies and the innovation system to identify strengths that can be built on as part of the decarbonisation journey, for example on The Clyde Mission and continued support for the Michelin Scotland Innovation Parc Outcome 2: Technologies critical to further industrial emissions reduction (such as carbon capture and storage and production and injection of hydrogen into the gas grid) are operating at commercial ACORN CCS support the delivery of the CCS and Hydrogen capability at St. Fergus Gas Processing complex by Establish and deliver a Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) Emerging Energy Technologies Fund – to support the development of Hydrogen, CCUS and Negative emissions Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS): work closely with the UK Government to get commercial, policy and regulatory frameworks required to support CCUS at scale in the UK.”

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 229 Forums for CCUS and Blue (low-carbon) to bring together industry, academics and membership organisations to promote and attract investment in CCUS and Blue Hydrogen. Evidence for CCUS and Blue building the evidence base on impact of technology, regulatory and market barriers. Strategic development of Scotland’s hydrogen economy - This is a cross-portfolio proposal that will impact on the delivery of Hydrogen to replicate and scale-up demonstration projects and the evidence base for hydrogen-

230 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Waste and the Circular Economy Outcome 1: Reduction in waste sent to landfill End landfilling of biodegradable municipal waste by 2025, reduce the percentage of all waste sent to landfill to 5% by 2025 and recycle 70% of all waste by 2025 Ħ Developing a new route map to reduce waste and meet our waste and recycling targets for 2025 in a way that maximises their carbon savings potential. Ħ Developing a post-2025 route map for the waste and resources sector, identifying how the sector will contribute towards Scotland’s journey towards net zero in the period Ħ Establishing a £70m fund to improve local authority recycling collection infrastructure. Ħ In line with EU requirements, further promoting reuse and recycling ensure separate collection of textiles by 2025; and ensuring that bio-waste (e.g. garden waste), is either separated and recycled at source, or is collected separately and is not mixed with other types of waste by 2023. Ħ In response to the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC’s) latest recommendations, it is our intention to extend the forthcoming ban on biodegradable municipal waste to landfill to include biodegradable non-municipal wastes, subject to appropriate consultation and work to provide assurance around some specific waste streams. Work with COSLA in the coming year to evaluate the Household Recycling Charter and review its Code of Practice as a key step in developing a future model of recycling collection. Underpinning this we will take steps to improve waste data, continuing to work with UK Government, other devolved governments and agencies to develop electronic waste tracking, which will help deliver a step change in the quality and usefulness of waste data for decision making. This will include taking the necessary steps alongside SEPA to drive implementation of the system in Scotland. Electronic waste tracking fund Improved waste data system will help drive further progress to deliver on existing waste

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 231 Outcome 2: Reduction in emissions from closed landfill sites. Accelerate Landfill Gas Capture and Landfill Legacy we will work with SEPA and key industry partners to scale up the existing landfill gas capture programme to mitigate effects of landfill and environmental impact of closed landfill sites. Landfill gas capture on closed in association with SEPA and the waste industry, double the number of landfill gas capture sites that undertake investigative or development work (from 12 to 24 sites) by 2025, in order to harness energy generated from landfill gas capture and maximise other circular economy opportunities. SEPA has already identified 12 sites for potential investigative work. Outcome 3: A reduction in food waste We will lead collaborative efforts to deliver Scotland’s landmark Food Waste Reduction Action Plan. To reduce food waste by 33% from the 2013 baseline by 2025. Actions Ħ Improving monitoring and infrastructure by considering a mandatory national food waste reduction target and mandatory reporting of Scotland’s food surplus and waste Ħ Consulting on the current rural exemption and food separation requirements for food waste collections, to help break down barriers to food waste reuse and recycling. Ħ Supporting leadership, innovation, effectiveness and efficiency in Scotland’s public, private and hospitality sectors by expanding pilot programmes across the education sector and public sector buildings; Ħ Support the development and implementation of an NHS Scotland national action plan on food waste; Ħ Develop best practice guidance for public sector procurement teams to drive new ways of working and more Ħ A sustained approach to public engagement and communications to enable the public to make changes in their choices and behaviours around food and food waste, in partnership with Zero Waste Scotland. 232 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Outcome 4: Reduce waste and establish a more circular economy, where goods and materials are kept in use for longer. We will work with local authorities and the future DRS scheme administrator(s) to explore options that will unlock reprocessing investments, including pricing and incentive schemes, to create jobs and a ready supply of recycled material for new packaging. Measures to encourage more sustainable consumer purchasing, including plans to take further steps to consult on a charge on single use disposable beverage cups and to increase the carrier bag minimum charge from 5p to 10p in this parliamentary session. Banning priority single use We will consult on banning a number of problematic plastic items identified in the EU’s Single Use Plastics Directive (with a view to introducing legislation in 2021) and outline how we will give effect to the wider requirements of the Directive before the end of 2020.
Implementation of our Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) for single use We will also work collaboratively across the public sector developing tools and guidance and a practical approach to influence and empower buyer, supplier and key stakeholder communities to use public procurement to support a green recovery and our wider climate and circular economy ambitions through procurement, embedding climate considerations in organisational procurement strategies by 2021 and reporting progress in annual procurement reports. Reforming extended producer responsibility We will continue to work with the UK Government and other devolved administrations on reforms to the packaging extended producer responsibility regime, which we expect will deliver improved funding for local authorities in the future.
We are boosting our commitment to building a circular economy, where goods and materials are kept in use for longer. We will deliver this by embedding circular recovery principles in the wider green recovery.
Through Zero Waste Scotland and Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), we will intensify our work with industry and businesses to address emissions associated with production, consumption and waste of products/resources; and to In the context of the latest CCC recommendations and building on progress already made by the sector, we will consider measures to ensure new energy from waste plants are more efficient, and ‘future-proofed’ for Carbon Capture and Storage technology. As part of our work on developing a route map to 2025, we will undertake a specific and focused piece of work to examine the range of fiscal measures used by other countries to incentivise positive behaviours and to develop proposals to go further in this area. Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 233 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Outcome 1: We will introduce a stepped increase in the annual woodland creation rates from 2020-2021 to enhance the contribution that trees make to reducing emissions through Forestry we will provide funding via a grant scheme, to support eligible land owners establish appropriate woodlands. Woodland creation on Scotland’s national forests and land. Forestry and Land Scotland will deliver an annual contribution towards the overall woodland creation target by creating new sustainable woodland on Scotland’s national forests and land, including through partnerships with external organisations to scale carbon capture opportunities. Awareness-raising. We will continue to deliver a programme of farm-based events to demonstrate and support improved productivity through integration of farming and forestry Woodland standards. The Scottish Government will lead on the work with the UK and other UK Governments to maintain and develop a UK Forestry Standard that articulates the consistent UK wide approach to sustainable forestry. The Standard defines how woodland should be created and managed to meet sustainable forest management principles and provides a basis Woodland carbon capture. The Scottish Government will further develop and promote the Woodland Carbon Code in partnership with the forestry sector, and will work with investors, carbon buyers, landowners and market intermediaries to attract additional investment into woodland creation projects and increase the woodland carbon market by

234 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Forestry and woodland strategies. Forestry and woodland strategies continue to be prepared by planning authorities, with support from Scottish Forestry. They provide a framework for forestry expansion through identifying preferred areas where forestry can have a positive impact on the environment, landscape, economy and local people. Support forestry sector on plant and seed supply strategy to help meet the increased planting targets. A programme of technical innovation to develop and adapt modern horticultural practices will help improve seed preparation and handling, techniques to reduce environmental impacts, and increase nursery production. Funding to support increased production of young trees is available through the Harvesting and Processing grant which is now open to forest nurseries across GB with Forestry and Land Scotland will begin development of a new approach to woodland investment with a view to acquiring more land to establish further woodland on Scotland’s national forests and land for the benefit of future generations and to optimise carbon sequestration. This includes partnering with private sector and other organisations to enhance scale and funding of carbon capture projects. Outcome 2: Increase the use of sustainably sourced wood fibre to reduce emissions by encouraging the construction industry to increase its use of wood products where appropriate. In collaboration with the private forest sector and other public sector bodies the Scottish Government will implement the Timber Development Programme through an annual programme of projects that support the promotion and development of wood products for use in construction. Outcome 3: To enhance the contribution of peatland to carbon storage, we will support an increase in the annual rate of peatland Restoration We will provide grant funding to support eligible land managers to deliver peatland restoration. Levels of funding will enable at least 20,000 hectares of peatland restoration per year. We will undertake research to inform where restoration can deliver the greatest emission savings

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 235 Awareness Working through partnership, we will put in place tools and information to promote peatland restoration and develop the capacity, skills and knowledge of land owners, land managers, contractors and others to deliver peatland With partners, refresh our vision for Scotland’s peatlands and review peatland restoration support mechanisms to overcome embedded barriers and improve how we fund and deliver this Phase out the use of peat in horticulture by increasing uptake of alternative materials, undertaking stakeholder engagement to understand transitional challenges, to improve the uptake of alternatives and develop a time-scaled plan. Our Position Statement on National Planning Framework 4 confirmed our current thinking that through the planning system we will not support applications for planning permission for new commercial peat extraction for horticultural purposes, we are looking at strengthening controls on development on peatland and we will help facilitate restoration through permitted development rights. Develop opportunities for private sector investment in peat restoration, engaging with sectors to establish investment pathways, enabling both public and private sector to invest in a range of measures to help mitigate effects of climate change. Explore how best to restore all degraded peat in the public estate and also within formally designated nature conservation sites, including through statutory mandate. Explore the development of a Peatland Restoration Standard to ensure best practice and continuous development in the success and effectiveness of peatland restoration. Outcome 4: We will establish pilot Regional Land Use partnerships (RLUPs) over the course of 2021. Establishment of pilot Regional Land Use Partnerships to help ensure that we maximise the potential of Scotland’s land to help achieve net zero.
Publication of Scotland’s third Land Use

236 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Outcome 1: A more productive, sustainable agriculture sector that significantly contributes towards delivering Scotland’s climate change, and wider environmental, outcomes through an increased uptake of climate mitigation measures by farmers, crofters, land managers and Scale up the Agricultural Transformation Programme across all the policies, including monitoring to assess the effectiveness of the pilot Sustainable Agricultural Capital Grant Scheme that will enable farmers and crofters to purchase equipment that should assist in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, and support Develop rural support policy to enable, encourage and where appropriate, require the shift to low carbon, sustainable farming through emissions reduction, sustainable food production, improving biodiversity, planting biomass crops and appropriate land use change developed in line with just Develop new schemes and approaches to support low carbon, sustainable farming, including through the Programme Board for the Beef Suckler Climate Group, other farmer-led groups on arable, dairy and high value, nature farming and crofting which Introduce Environmental Conditionality, from 2021 via implementation of the Beef Suckler Climate Report and more widely from 2022 through the review of existing CAP Greening which will extend the requirements to all farmers and crofters to undertake environmental actions. Further provision of advice for farmers and crofters who wish to A new commitment to work with stakeholders to provide advice, including further extending the Land Matching Service and guidance for farmers and crofters who wish to step back from agricultural businesses by providing an opportunity to consider alternative land-uses or alternative agricultural

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 237 Outcome 2: More farmers, crofters, land managers and other primary food producers are aware of the benefits and practicalities of cost effective climate mitigation measures The dissemination of information and advice on climate change mitigation measures in agriculture through a range of communication methods utilising technology and all media to An agri-tech group will be established to share, disseminate and encourage adoption of advances in agricultural science and technology as widely as possible. Launch a new and expanded peer to peer knowledge transfer initiative based on the success of our Young Climate Change Realign and enhance our established programmes and initiatives such as the Farm Advisory Service, the Knowledge Transfer and Innovation Fund and Monitor Farm Programme to create a more cohesive approach to ensure advice and support is focussed on helping industry to professionalise to support Carbon in 2018, we will consult on how best to ensure maximum take up of carbon audits and how to enable tenant farmers and crofters in particular to benefit. We will explore with stakeholders, including the Scottish Tenant Farmers Association and the Tenant Farming Commissioner, how best to engage tenant farmers to increase understanding of the environmental and economic benefits of Marketing Determine the feasibility of a Low Carbon Farming marketing scheme. Maintained

238 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Outcome 3: Nitrogen emissions, including from nitrogen fertiliser, will have fallen through a combination of improved understanding, efficiencies and improved soil condition Communicate and demonstrate the benefits of precision farming and nitrogen use efficiency in order to achieve a Work with the agriculture and science sectors regarding the feasibility and development of a SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time bound) target for reducing Scotland’s emissions from nitrogen fertiliser. From 2018 we expect farmers to test the soil on all improved land every five or six years, and we will work with them to establish how best to achieve this. Investigate the benefits and barriers of leguminous crops in Crop varieties with improved nitrogen-use efficiency. Maintained

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 239 Outcome 4: Reduced emissions from red meat and dairy through Commission and publish a report into the establishment of emissions intensity figures for beef, lamb and milk. Maintained Work with Quality Meat Scotland, ScotEID and livestock producers to encourage improved emissions intensity through genotyping, improving fertility, reducing animal mortality and improving on farm management practices. Determine the practicality of establishing a SMART target for reduction in the intensity of emissions for beef, sheep and dairy Consult in 2018 to determine the nature of livestock health measures that the sector will adopt from 2019. Determine the practicalities and feasibility of using livestock feed additives as a means of reducing emissions. Outcome 5: Reduced emissions from the use and storage of manure Engaging with farmers to explore their support requirements, establish how they can improve the use and storage of manure and slurry, including the potential for cooperatively owned and Investigate the practicalities of livestock grazing in rotation on current arable land. Maintained Conduct a feasibility study for the establishment of manure/ Determine how to consistently minimise emissions from slurry Review management of storage and application of organic materials such as silage, slurry and liquid digestate, including what support may be required to ensure best practice. 240 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Outcome 6: Carbon sequestration and existing carbon stores on agricultural land have helped to increase and maintain our carbon Explore with the farming and forestry sectors how best to increase planting of trees and hedgerows which optimise carbon sequestration, including the role of agroforestry. Investigate the feasibility of payment for carbon sequestration taking into account any existing schemes such as the woodland carbon code as a means of encouraging the uptake of carbon Increase woodland cover on suitable agricultural land. Maintained Building on the successful work integrating woodland with farming businesses, help remove barriers for those on agriculture holdings, particularly in the tenanted sector who want to engage in woodland creation, including exploring the potential to reform legislation where appropriate. Work with stakeholders on options to increase peatland restoration on suitable agricultural and crofting land, to support delivery of policies in the LULUCF chapter. We will map peatland against this land which will allow modelling options for land-use change and inform opportunities for targeted support of peatland restoration and management.
Explore options for land-use change to optimise uses beyond traditional farming and food production to multi-faceted land use including forestry, peatland restoration and management

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 241 Negative Emissions Technologies Outcome 1: Detailed feasibility studies on NETS will assess the opportunities for negative emissions in Scotland, and identify applications with the greatest potential, including specific sites In 2021/22 carry out a detailed feasibility study of opportunities for developing NETs in Scotland ready for the early 2030s. This will identify specific sites and applications of NETs, including developing work to support policy on Direct Air Capture and its role within NETS in our future energy system. From 2022, based on the outcomes of the feasibility work, we will provide support for commercial partners to develop NETs proposals including initial design and business cases. Put in place a continual process to review the development of NETs and progress against its envelope. We will work with UK Government to ensure that they bring forward suitable mechanisms to support the development of NETs business cases in relevant sectors. Outcome 2: the continued development of CCUS technologies and systems is prioritised to ensure these can be rolled out commercially and at scale by the late 2020s. Support the development of NETS technologies within Scotland. New Support the inclusion of NETS in the development of strategic, industry lead pathways for CCUS infrastructure in Scotland. Funding through the Scottish Industrial Energy Transformation Fund to consider the development of NETs demonstrators. Provide a focus on integrating NETS projects with CCS infrastructure through the Emerging Energy Technologies Fund. 242 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Outcome 3: a cross-sectoral approach for the appropriate and sustainable use of biomass in energy applications is agreed and implemented (taking into account competing land and feedstock uses). We will publish a Bioenergy Update in early 2021, laying out our current position and understanding of the role of bioenergy in the energy system and setting out in more detail In 2021, building on the Bioenergy Update, we will establishing a cross sectoral Bioenergy Expert Working Group to consider and identify the most appropriate and sustainable use for bioenergy resources across Scotland. It will also assess the volume of bioenergy resources that we can grow or produce within Scotland, and confirm the level of import that we believe is compatible with a sustainable global trade in By 2023, in time to inform the next Climate Change Plan, we will publish a Bioenergy Action Plan, incorporating the learning developed by the expert working group and our understanding of the options to use Bioenergy in both NETs and other

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 243 154 155 156 This element of the Plan update represents an important step in the ongoing improvement of the Monitoring Framework set out in the 2018 Plan for tracking progress to delivery of the Ħ an adjustment to the definitions of different types of indicators from those used in the 2018 Plan, to more clearly distinguish their purpose; and Ħ a revised set of policy outcome indicators that reflect the content Monitoring implementation is vital to ensure that the policies in the Climate Change Plan are making progress towards meeting Scotland’s emissions reduction targets in a way that is delivering a just The Climate Change Plan 2018-32 included a monitoring framework for the first time and embedded indicators for policies for each sector. This framework has been the basis of two published Climate Change Plan Monitoring Reports, in October 2018154 and December 2019155. Section 35B of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (as amended by the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019) places annual progress reporting on a statutory footing, with reports for each sector to be produced and laid in Parliament from May 2021 onwards. The updated monitoring framework, as set out below, will underpin the assessments of progress made in these reports. The Committee on Climate Change will also continue to produce independent, annual reports on Scotland’s progress towards meeting emissions reduction targets (the most recent such report was published in October 2020156). The updated Monitoring Framework for the Climate Change Plan for sectors is structured on three greenhouse gas emissions statistics provide the highest- level measure of progress at an economy- wide and sectoral level; a suite of policy outcome indicators measure the success of policies in achieving the changes that are needed; and a policy tracker monitoring implementation of specific The updated Framework also includes cross-sectoral monitoring of social and economic indicators to focus on impacts on workforce, employers and communities. This will enable us to monitor progress towards our just Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics Official Statistics on Scottish greenhouse gas emissions determine progress towards national emissions reduction targets and also provide information on total annual emissions at a sectoral level. Statistics are published annually, typically in June, and two years in arrears. For example, the most recent figures, published in June 2020, cover emissions during 2018157. 244 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes The Plan includes key policy outcomes for each sector, defined as a measurable change on the ground resulting from a policy or combination of related policies. The Framework will measure progress towards achieving these with a set of A policy outcome indicator is a specific, objective measure closely aligned to achieving the outcome. It will underpin monitoring of long-term progress towards the outcome, but should also be responsive to change in the near-term, so that it can be used to evaluate whether the Plan is on track. Specific milestones (or targets) are set, where appropriate, for the level of the indicator to be achieved at In this update, the set of outcome indicators from the 2018 Plan were reviewed to ensure that they reflect the updated policy commitments and to improve the quality and clarity of indicators.
This has led to new outcome indicators being identified, others being revised, and a few being removed where they were no longer appropriate or there were significant issues with robustness. The overall set of outcome indicators is now 39, up from 29 previously used for A revised set of outcome indicators for the updated Plan is out below. Policy outcome indicators help to answer the are we seeing the results – the change on the 158 This is an update of terminology from the 2018 version of the Monitoring Framework, which referred to these as policy output The Plan includes a set of specific policies and proposals for each sector to achieve the policy outcomes. The Framework will monitor progress towards implementing policies and developing proposals with a policy tracker, which will be set out for annual progress reporting, from May 2021. This will consistently record progress and next steps for policies, and where possible it will include implementation indicators Policy implementation indicators will help us to measure whether a policy’s course of actions is delivering the intended outputs. This can be used to identify whether policies are being implemented as expected, and to focus attention on potential issues. Implementation indicators will be updated as part of Policy implementation indicators help to answer the are we doing Cross-Sectoral Social and Economic The actions needed to become net zero by 2045 will transform all sectors of our economy and society. We recognise the need to further develop appropriate monitoring at both cross-cutting and sector level to better track progress in these areas. However, for the near-term we will use the existing Office of National Low Carbon Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) data set, including business turnover and jobs, to begin annual monitoring of the impacts on the wider economy and livelihoods as we

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 245 Principles of the Monitoring Framework The monitoring framework is guided by a set of principles that inform both its design and its ongoing use in assessment of progress. These 1. It will assess both the efficiency of policy implementation (are we doing what we said we’d do?) and whether this is effective in achieving policy outcomes (are we getting the results we expected?). 2. It will underpin annual progress reports assessment of whether we are ‘on track’ in the short-term, as well as providing an on-going basis for consistent monitoring of progress to long-term outcomes. 3. Our policy objectives will be SMART159 (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-limited) so that they are suitable for monitoring and 4. It will gather the data needed to give reliable and consistent measurement, while being proportionate to policies and varying data availability. 5. We will learn from the monitoring framework, using it to support improvement in policy design and delivery. The National Performance Framework (NPF) sets the overall purpose and vision for Scotland and tracks progress using a set of National Indicators. The Climate Change Plan sets out Scotland’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with Scotland’s statutory targets, progress to which also directly underpins a National Indicator. The Monitoring Framework for the Plan allows more detailed tracking of progress to policy outcomes and implementation of specific policies across sectors. As the Plan aims to reduce emissions while achieving the broader purpose set by the NPF, there are also synergies across a wider range of other economic, social and environmental Annual progress reports on delivery of the updated Plan, on a sector by sector basis, will be published and laid in Parliament from May 2021 onwards. The content of those reports will be underpinned by the Monitoring Framework structure set out above, including the most up-to- date available information on sectoral emissions, the current set of policy outcome indicators, and relevant policy The Monitoring Framework itself will continue to develop as we learn from experience and as new sources of monitoring information become available. Cross-portfolio governance arrangements for the Framework, which will include oversight of the process for making any future adjustments to the set of indicators, remain under review and a further update on this will be provided to the Parliament

246 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Sector Policy Outcome Indicators 1 Electricity grid intensity (CO2e per kilowatt hour) a 1 Installed capacity of renewable generation (GW) a Year-to-year 1 Renewable capacity at planning stages (GW: 3 categories) a Year-to-year 2 Loss of Load Expectation (hours per year) b (a) Scottish Government Scottish Energy Statistics Hub; (b) National Grid Winter Outlook. 1 % heat in buildings from low greenhouse gas 1 % of buildings using low greenhouse gas emission 2 Energy intensity of residential buildings 2 Energy intensity of non-domestic buildings (GVA in the services 2 % of homes with an EPC (EER, or equivalent) of at least C c Progress to 2 % new homes built with a calculated space heating demand of not

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 247 3 % of Scottish gas demand accounted for by biomethane and hydrogen blended into the gas network a 4 Percentage of households in fuel poverty e Progress to 2040 Where targets have not been set, we will aim to do so as we develop the indicators. (i) Target to be set in the Heat in Buildings Strategy expected summer 2021; (ii) set out in the Fuel Poverty Act with consideration of associated indicators on extreme fuel poverty and the fuel poverty gap. (a) Indicator in development; (b) Scottish Government Scottish Energy Statistics Hub; (c) Scottish Government Scottish House Condition Survey National Statistics; (d) EPC data provided on completion of each new home; (e) Scottish Government Scottish House Condition Survey National Statistics.
1 % reduction in car kilometres a Progress to target 2 % of new car registrations that are ULEV b Year-to-year 2 % of new van registrations that are ULEV b Year-to-year 3 % of new HGV registrations that are ULEV b Year-to-year 4 % of new bus registrations that are ULEV b Progress to target 5 % reduction in emissions from scheduled flights within Scotland c Year-to-year 6 % of ferries that are low emissions d Progress to target 8 % of single track kilometres electrified e Progress to target 8 % of trains powered by alternative traction e Year-to-year Where we have been unable to set targets, Transport Scotland will aim to do so when the necessary data becomes available. (a) Scottish Transport Statistics (Chapter 5); (b) Scottish Transport Statistics (Chapter 13); (c) Airline(s) operating scheduled flights within Scotland; (d) ad hoc Transport Scotland; (e) ad hoc Network Rail (Scotland)

248 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 1 Industrial energy productivity (£GVAm per GWh) a Progress to target 1 Industrial emissions intensity (tCO2e per £GVAm) a Progress to target 2 % of Scottish gas demand accounted for by biomethane and hydrogen blended into the gas network b (i) from 2015 baseline. (a) Scottish Government Scottish Energy Statistics Hub; (b) Indicator in development Waste and the Circular Economy 1 Total amount of landfilled waste (tonnes) a Progress to target 1 Total amount of biodegradable landfilled waste (tonnes) b Year-to-year 2 Number of closed landfill sites with exploratory landfill gas capture/ 3 Household and non-household food waste reduced (tonnes) a Progress to target 4 Total waste generated (tonnes) a Progress to target (i) Reduce all food waste arising in Scotland on a per capita basis by 33% by 2025, based on 2013 baseline; (ii) By 2025 reduce total waste arising in Scotland by 15% against 2011 levels; (a) Waste from all sources – summary data 2018: SEPA; (b) Waste landfilled in Scotland 2019: SEPA; (c) ad hoc SEPA;

Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 249 1 Hectares of woodland created per year a 2020/21 = 12,000 1 Woodland Ecological Condition a Year-to-year 1 Woodland Carbon Projected carbon sequestration 2 Annual volume (in millions of cubic metres) of Scottish produced sawn wood and panel boards used in construction a 3 Hectares of peatland restored per year b 20,000 ha/yr ii 3 Peatland Carbon Projected emissions reduction (validated units)c Year-to-year (i) carbon sequestration baseline March 2020; (ii) area of peatland restored is a proxy measure which doesn’t directly represent the reduction in emissions, an emissions reduction indicator may be adopted in the future. Also, the current per annum (a) Forestry Statistics; (b) NatureScot will compile from Peatland Action, FLS, National Parks, Scottish Water and other sources; (c) IUCN Peatland Carbon Code Registry for the UK. 250 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 2 Increased engagement with Farm Advisory Services on environmental issues and climate change a 3 Use of Nitrogen fertilisers i, b Based on trend 3 Spreading precision of Nitrogen fertilisers b Based on trend 4 Time taken from birth to slaughter and increased efficiency through improved health and reduced losses c 5 Improvement in covered slurry storage d Based on trend 5 Precision application of manure and slurry b Based on trend 6 Hectares of peatland restored per year ii, e Year-to-year 6 Area of woodland on agricultural land f Based on trend We will be improving baseline data for this new set of indicators alongside ongoing policy development. (i) Potential to use Scottish Nitrogen Balance sectoral nitrogen use efficiency when developed; (ii) This replicates the LULUCF indicator for outcome 3, efforts will be made to monitor the % of restored peatland on agricultural land. Data (a) Farm Advisory calls to advisory service about CC, use of Agrecalc tool, awareness of environmental issues; (b) British Survey of Fertiliser Practice; (c) Cattle Tracing Scheme (CTS); (d) The Survey of Agricultural Production Methods (SAPM); (e) NatureScot will compile from Peatland Action, FLS, National Parks, Scottish Water and other sources; (f) Agricultural Census/SAF. 1. It is intended that an `on track’ assessment (i.e. “on track”, “off track” or “too early to say”) will be made periodically for each outcome indicator – and will inform annual progress reporting. This assessment can be made (i) where appropriate, using annual milestones/targets that have been set for the indicator; (ii) using expert judgement to assess progress to a set target (e.g. 2025 or 2030); or (iii) where a target is either not possible or appropriate at present, using expert judgement to assess trends or level of change. 2. A set of criteria was used as a guide when reviewing outcome indicators to be included in this update. • Is there is a clear relationship between the indicator(s) and the Climate Change Plan • Does the indicator measure what it purports to measure? • Is the indicator based upon impartial, reliable sources? • Can the data for the indicator be obtained with reasonable, feasible and affordable effort (for Scottish Government and for those providing the data)? • Is the indicator easily understood? Is it clear what constitutes an improvement and a • Is the indicator precise enough to detect important changes over short to medium (1 to 5 year) time periods that are amenable to policy intervention? • Does the indicator measure something that is not already captured under other • Does the indicator (or set of indicators) provide sufficient information to usefully assess progress on the outcome in question? Is anything missing? Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 251 ANNEX Derivation of Sector Emissions 160 TIMES is a high-level strategic model, covering the Scottish energy system, as well as non-energy sectors, including Agriculture, Waste, Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). It identifies the least-cost pathway for deployment of technologies, fuels and other carbon abatement measures to meet our final demands and emissions targets.
See Climate Change third report on proposals and policies 2018-2032 – technical annex for further information on the TIMES model A key element of this Climate Change Plan update is the presentation of emissions envelopes for each sector over the period 2020 to 2032. These envelopes have been developed through an iterative process which combines evidence, analytical modelling and the application of judgement in the face of considerable As with the previous Climate Change Plan, the TIMES model was used to provide the initial basis for the development of the sector emissions envelopes160. The model was updated in 2019 to a 2015 base year and the key assumptions were reviewed and aligned with the latest evidence. In particular, the current modelling makes use of the most recently published Scottish greenhouse gas inventory data and best current expectations for known upcoming technical changes to the UK inventory in relation to the implementation of new/ updated IPCC guidelines on the inclusion of emissions from peatlands, and revisions to the global warming potentials of some greenhouse gases. Decisions on the exact nature of these technical revisions remain to be made by the UK Government and these aspects of the evidence base will need to be kept under review for the next An initial TIMES model run, using this updated evidence base and taking into account constraints around technical feasibility, was undertaken to demonstrate the potential distribution of emissions- reduction effort across sectors. After reviewing initial model results, Scottish Government sector analysts advised on further technical refinements to the model, based on sector modelling, latest externally-commissioned research and expert judgement. This, alongside a quality assurance process by TIMES analysts, as well as an Assurance Group chaired by the Chief Economist, resulted in a revised model run and set of sector The TIMES modelling provides an integrated and consistent approach, but significant uncertainty is present across all sectors and all key domains (cost; technology availability; emissions factors; energy demand) and this uncertainty increases over time (but is not accounted for in the modelling). As with all modelling, the Assurance Group advised that the limitations of the model should be set out and that the results from the model should be deployed alongside other

252 Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes Building on the initial rounds of TIMES modelling, a further scenario was introduced to provide evidence on the potential implications of allowing the industrial sector higher emissions than in the previous run described above, to help protect against carbon leakage161. The emissions envelope for the industrial sector was constrained in the TIMES model to the current European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) cap to 2020 and then to the assumed rate of a projected EU/UK cap to 2025 (effectively the current EU ETS Cap less 5%). Post- 2025, the industrial sector envelope followed a linear path to a 90% reduction in 2050, based on the CCC’s advice for that specific sector in a UK-wide net zero The envelopes produced by the TIMES model for this scenario resulted in total emissions which exceeded the statutory targets during the period of the Plan (ie the TIMES model was unable to identify a set of sector pathways consistent with the 161 whereby tight emissions reduction targets in one country could cause business to relocate to other countries with more lax climate regulation, potentially resulting in higher global greenhouse gas emissions overall. 162 Net Zero Exhibits – Industry, available to download In order to ensure the envelopes met the cross-economy statutory targets, a further decision was taken to allocate the necessary additional emissions-reduction effort, outwith the TIMES framework, across the sectors on a pro-rata basis. Two exceptions were made to Ħ no additional emissions were allocated to the Industry sector, consistent with the approach to Ħ the emissions envelope of the Agriculture sector was constrained to the level of the ‘core technical’ TIMES run and the additional annual quantity of emissions reductions which would have been allocated pro rata to the Agriculture sector were instead assigned to Land Use, Land Use Change A final series of ‘off-model’ adjustments were made in order to ensure that the resultant annual emissions envelopes were consistent with expectations around deliverability and did not result in any increase in a particular sectors’ emissions following a period of decarbonisation. 1. delay the roll-out of carbon capture and storage process as far as possible; and 2. ensure that no sector shows a temporary increase in emissions. Update to the Climate Change Plan | Annexes 253 The resulting set of envelopes are below. 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Agriculture 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 Electricity 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 - 0.5 - 3.7 - 4.2 - 4.7 Industry 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.7 7.2 6.3 5.5 Waste 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Transport 11.0 10.2 9.4 8.7 7.9 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Buildings 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.6 5.0 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Targets/total 41.6 39.5 37.5 35.4 33.4 31.3 29.4 27.3 25.1 23.0 20.6 19.4 18.3 As mentioned in Part 3, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) are being presented separately for this Plan update only. The final set of envelopes below removes NETs from Industry and Electricity envelopes and creates a NETs envelope.
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Agriculture 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 Electricity 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 - - - - Industry 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.5 Waste 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Transport 11.0 10.2 9.4 8.7 7.9 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Buildings 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.6 5.0 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 NETs - - - - - - - - - - 0.5 - 3.8 - 4.7 - 5.7 Targets/total 41.6 39.5 37.5 35.4 33.4 31.3 29.4 27.3 25.1 23.0 20.6 19.4 18.3