The Welsh Government funded four of the key projects at a capital cost of £9.3m as phase 1 of the project. Year 2 of the contract delivered savings of £634,701 and of 4,567 tonnes of carbon. 123 Sustainable Development Unit (2017) Health Outcomes Travel Tool measure/health-outcomes-travel-tool.aspx 124 125 Sustainable Development Unit (2014) Sustainable Development Strategy strategy/engagement-resources.aspx 126 5 Hospital Estates and Facilities Statistics 5 Hospital Estates and Facilities Statistics ReportFilterConfirm.asp?FilterOpen=&Year=2015%2F2016+01&Level=T&Section=S&SHA=&Org_ 127 128 129

160 7th National Communication Electricity generated by solar power is a growing area across the NHS estate. Aneurin Bevan University Health Board have recently completed installation of four 50kW solar arrays on four sites in Gwent. At Llandough Hospital in Cardiff there is a 70kW installation on the new Mental Health Unit currently the largest installation of its type in NHS Wales. Two of the health boards are also currently investigating the feasibility of larger scale solar farm developments. All health boards and NHS Trusts have the internationally recognised environment management standard ISO 14001 accreditation across all their sites. A number of the health boards with the largest emissions were included in Phase 2 of the Carbon Reduction Energy Efficiency Scheme but this scheme is due to come to an end in 2018-19. Cardiff and Vale University Health Board report under the EU-ETS scheme in respect of the level of emissions at the University Hospital 3.12 Leaving the European Union Leaving the EU will not change any of the UK’s statutory commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under the 2008 Climate Change Act. Detailed future policies will emerge as negotiations between the EU and the UK proceed, but whilst the UK is a member of the EU, existing rules and regulations still apply, and will continue to engage constructively on new and As highlighted in the government’s Clean Growth Strategy, the UK remains committed to the 3.13 Policies to promote sustainable development in developing countries and emerging economies 3.13.1 International Sustainable Development from Wales Wales has a history of leadership at the international level. Its is the World’s First Fair Trade Nation and one of the first nations in the World to have duty on sustainable development at the In 2011 Wales committed to introducing legislation to make sustainable development the central organising principle of the Welsh Government and the devolved public sector in Wales and establishing an independent sustainable development body for Wales. The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act was introduced in 2015 and will ensure that doing things in a sustainable way becomes the core principle that guides how public bodies in Wales make decisions that affect our society, our economy and our environment and culture. For the first time, public bodies listed in the Act (such as local councils, health boards and the National Library) will be under a legal duty to work towards achieving a set of shared goals which define the Wales people want to see in the future. The main parts of the Act clarify what organisations are aiming to achieve and explain how they should work differently to achieve this; this is what is meant by sustainable development as a The Well-being of Future Generations Act put in place 7 well-being goals, including a goal where a Wales is globally responsible. The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals fed into the development of the well-being goals, which are a statement of what well-being looks like for Wales. The Act puts in place a framework for taking action and measuring progress. The Act required Welsh Ministers to set national indicators to assess progress towards achieving the well-being goals. Wales is the

Chapter 3 – Policies and Measures 161 first country in the UK to map our national indicators of progress against the UN goals, putting our own well-being ambitions in a global context. As well as ensuring the driving of sustainable development through legislative framework, the Government is • Take part at the international stage showing leadership, driving action and highlighting the important role of States and Regions in tackling the global challenges of sustainable development and climate change. • Work with international partners through Programmes such as our Wales for Africa. Wales over the years has attended the United Nations Conference of Parties on sustainable development, climate change and biological diversity. The Welsh Government currently holds the Vice Presidency of the international Network of Regional Governments for Sustainable Development (nrg4SD) and is on the Steering Group for The Climate Groups States and Regions network. The Welsh Government has also been and a founding signatories of key agreements like the Climate Group’s Compact of States and Regions In partnership with Welsh charity the Size of Wales, the Welsh Government’s 10 Million Tree project aims to alleviate the harmful effects of climate change in a highly deforested region of Eastern Uganda through planting trees. Heavier than usual rain fall accompanied by severe flooding has already caused a number of deadly landslides on Mt Elgon, the worst of which killed over 300 people including 100 school children sheltering from the storm. Crops regularly fail due to increasingly unpredictable and changing weather conditions. The project has planted 6 million trees to date, including a fruit tree for every child born or adopted in Wales since 2014 through Welsh Government’s Plant! scheme. The project was recognised by the UN as one of the first ‘Momentum for Change Lighthouse Projects’ at COP17 in Durban. and to date more than 500,000 people have benefited from the project. 3.14 3.14 Monitoring and evaluation The United Kingdom has a rigorous monitoring and reporting framework to track progress against its domestic and international targets. Each year the UK Government published its Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and Energy and Emissions Projections. The Climate Change Act (2008) requires the UK Government to set five yearly carbon budgets, and then produce a plan to meet these budgets. The most recent was the Clean Growth Strategy, published in October 2017 .
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), the UK’s independent advisory body, provide an assessment of this plan. The CCC also produces an annual progress report, with the UK Government laying a response before Parliament. From 2018, the UK Government will use its response to the CCC’s annual progress report to bring together reporting against the Clean Growth on the emission intensity ratio, metrics and actions. The UK publish our performance against the Emissions Intensity Ratio on an annual basis. UK Government will also update key elements of the Strategy in line with our annual statutory responses to the CCC’s reports on progress, ahead of setting the sixth carbon The 2010 Climate Change Strategy had a monitoring and reporting framework in place to provide a robust mechanism for effectively tracking progress. Each year progress on the 3%

162 7th National Communication and 40% target is reported through various mechanisms such as Annual Reports or updates through the Welsh Government website. Alongside the tracking of the overall targets, a set of emission reduction performance indicators have been developed to provide a measure of progress against the Climate Change Strategy Delivery Plan for Emission Reduction. The Environment (Wales) Act 2016, sets out a new regulatory framework It also puts in place a robust reporting and monitoring framework for tracking progress against our interim targets and carbon budgets. Progress will be provided after each budgetary period and interim target. Alongside this progress reports will also be provided from the UK Committee on Climate 3.14.3.1 Public Sector Reporting in Scotland The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 places duties on public bodies relating to climate change. Further to the Act, the Scottish Government introduced the Climate Change (Duties of Public Reporting Requirements) (Scotland) Order 2015 requiring all named public sector organisations to submit reports on their compliance with their climate change duties under the Climate Change Act. Currently, 180 public sector organisations report annually under this The Scottish Government supports and encourages climate action from all public bodies in Scotland and recognises the key leadership role they have to play in tackling climate change and adapting to the impacts of climate change. A wide range of support is available to the Scottish public sector, and the Sustainable Scotland Network act as a central gateway, providing support, resources and facilitating collaborative working. 3.14.3.2 Progress report – Scottish Climate Change Act Progress in reducing emissions is reported by the Scottish Government and its independent adviser, the Committee on Climate Change. A statutory annual target report is published by the Scottish Government setting out whether each annual emissions reduction target has been met. In 2015, emissions in Scotland have fallen by 41% from the 1990/1995 baseline period, well on track to meeting the interim 2020 target of a 42% emissions reduction. The Committee on Climate Change publish an annual report on progress towards meeting Scottish climate change targets. The Committee published its sixth report in September 2017 and advised that Scotland has made good progress in reducing its emissions and is performing well compared to other parts of the UK. Chapter 3 – Policies and Measures 163

Emissions, scenarios with measures In 2015, emissions of the basket of seven greenhouse gases (GHGs) covered by the Kyoto Protocol130 are estimated to be 499 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), 37 .8% lower than the 1990 level of 803 MtCO2e. Emissions from this basket of GHGs are projected to fall to 414 MtCO2e (48% below the 1990 level) by 2020 and 382 MtCO2e by 2030 (52% below • Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are projected to be 44%, 65% and 57% respectively, below 1990 levels by 2020. • Emissions of the fluorinated GHGs (Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are collectively projected to be 32% below their Since the 6th National Communication, the UK has implemented further policies to help meet its EU effort sharing, renewable energy and energy efficiency targets, and the Carbon Budgets131 set under the 2008 Climate Change Act132. Unlike the National Communication report, the Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP)133 also includes planned policies (this scenario is known as ‘with additional measures’ or WAM). According to the 2017 edition of the EEP (Due to be published January 2018), the UK met the first carbon budget with headroom of 36 MtCO 2e, and is projected to meet the second and third carbon budgets with headroom of 125 and 143 MtCO2e, respectively. There are projected shortfalls against the fourth and fifth carbon budgets of 94 MtCO2e and 196 MtCO2e, respectively. As policies and proposals in the Clean Growth Strategy134 are developed more fully, their impacts will be included as appropriate in future projections. 130 The basket of greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol consists of seven carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride 131 132 133 Figures available in Energy and Emission Projection report due to be published in January 2018 134 BEIS Clean Growth Strategy, published in October 2017 , available system/uploads/attachment_data/file/651916/BEIS_The_Clean_Growth_online_12.10.17 .pdf

166 7th National Communication 4.2 Overall projections of GHG emissions This chapter presents the UK’s GHG emissions projections, in a scenario ‘with existing measures’ (or ‘WEM’), along with assumptions and methodology. The UK projections are due to be published in January 2018 and provide the basis for this National Communication. The UK updates its national emissions projections for CO2 and the other GHGs annually to take account of new data including revisions to policy savings estimates, fossil fuel prices, carbon price projections, growth projections and cost estimates for the power sector. There are also improvements to the underlying energy and emissions projection model. 2020 to 2035, by GHG. The historic emissions set out in this chapter are based on the UK GHG inventory 1990 – 2015 published and submitted to the UNFCCC in 2017 . The current emissions projections up to 2035 are consistent with this inventory. The UK’s GHG inventory and National System are discussed in Chapter 1.
The tables of emissions in this chapter are reported on the basis of UNFCCC coverage. UNFCCC coverage is wider than the coverage used by the UK for carbon budgets purposes, for which its national published projections are produced. The difference in coverage was 0.7% of the total emissions in 2015 based on the latest (1990 – 2015) inventory. Therefore, whilst the projected emissions are based upon the national projections published in December 2017 the UK has added new projections for those overseas territories not covered in its published national projections to make due allowance for this difference. The projections include the impact of implemented and adopted measures, but exclude any use of flexible mechanisms such as EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) emissions trading or Joint Implementation (JI)/ Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits. They show that UK GHG emissions including LULUCF are projected to be 48% below 1990 levels in 2020 and 52% below in 2030. For estimates excluding Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), the percentages are very similar. LULUCF emissions are reported in full, consistent with the Inventory Convention reporting and are not restricted to just those allowed under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol.135 Figures available in Energy and Emission Projection report due to be published in January 2018

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 167 MtCO2e Inventory Projections GHG excluding LULUCF 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 14.4 19.1 9.9 13.2 16.5 16.0 11.1 7.3 4.3 2.7 PFCs 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total 796.8 749.1 713.1 692.9 615.7 506.8 425.5 389.9 389.1 390.1 Change from 1990 (%) 0% -6% -11% -13% -23% -36% -47% -51% -51% -51% HFCs 14.4 19.1 9.9 13.2 16.5 16.0 11.1 7.3 4.3 2.7 PFCs 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total 802.5 752.1 713.6 689.7 609.9 499.4 414.4 381.0 382.4 385.0 Change from 1990 (%) 0% -6% -11% -14% -24% -38% -48% -53% -52% -52% 2 3.2 0.6 -1.8 -5.2 -7.5 -8.9 -12.7 -10.7 -8.6 -7.1 Total 5.7 3.0 0.5 -3.2 -5.8 -7.4 -11.1 -8.9 -6.7 -5.1 Final Emissions Statistics 2017, Energy and Emissions Projections, 2017 4.3 Sectoral emissions by source Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Agriculture 59.3 58.7 55.2 51.5 48.9 49.4 46.9 45.0 44.6 44.4 Business 114.6 112.5 116.5 110.1 95.1 84.9 76.2 66.7 60.0 57.5 Energy Supply 279.1 239.2 222.2 232.3 208.1 145.5 87.6 69.3 75.6 77.7 Industrial processes 60.0 50.9 27.1 20.6 12.7 12.7 10.0 9.4 9.0 8.8 5.7 3.0 0.5 -3.2 -5.8 -7.4 -11.1 -8.9 -6.7 -5.1 Public 13.5 13.3 12.1 11.2 9.7 8.1 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.9 Residential 80.4 82.0 89.1 86.1 87.9 66.7 66.8 67.7 71.7 75.4 Transport 123.0 123.3 127.8 131.7 121.3 121.0 117.1 112.8 109.4 107.7 Waste Management 66.9 69.3 63.0 49.4 31.9 18.4 13.9 12.2 11.2 10.7 Total net GHG emissions 802.5 752.1 713.6 689.7 609.9 499.4 414.4 381.0 382.4 385.0 Final Emissions Statistics 2017, Energy and Emissions Projections, 2017

168 7th National Communication The ‘with existing measures’ projections of emissions from the energy supply sector show that emissions are projected to be 69% lower than 1990 levels by 2020 and 73% below by 2030. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 279.1 239.2 222.2 232.3 208.1 145.5 87.6 69.3 75.6 77.7 Change from 1990 (%) -14% -20% -17% -25% -48% -69% -75% -73% -72% Final Emissions Statistics 2017, Energy and Emissions Projections, 2017. Following a sharp fall in coal fired generation in 2016, a further gradual decline in fossil fuel based generation out to 2035 is projected. This is displaced by more renewables and eventually nuclear based generation with increased imports (via interconnectors) until new nuclear capacity reduces the need for this in the 2030s. As a consequence, emissions from electricity production are projected to fall steadily over the full Emissions intensity, gCO2e/KWh 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections The principal long-term driver of emissions in UK households is household numbers. These are projected to increase over the whole period both due to population growth in the UK as a whole and due to the disproportionate increase in smaller households. Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 169 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 80.4 82.0 89.1 86.1 87.9 66.7 66.8 67.7 71.7 75.4 Change from 1990 (%) 2% 11% 7% 9% -17% -17% -16% -11% -6% Up to 2020 the impact of increases in population and housing are offset by the impact of existing energy and emission reduction policies, for example, through the improved insulation of The overall impact of these factors has driven a projected rise in domestic emissions by 9 MtCO2e (13%) by 2035 compared to 2015. Public services include central and local government, defence, education, health and social 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 13.5 13.3 12.1 11.2 9.7 8.1 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.9 Change from 1990 (%) -2% -10% -17% -28% -40% -48% -49% -44% -42% Total GHG emissions from public services are projected to remain broadly constant until the mid-2020s before rising slightly in the late 2020s and 30s. Energy emissions from CO2 (and related CH4 and N2O emissions) in commerce are attributable to combustion, both to heat buildings and in manufacturing.
170 7th National Communication 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.8 4.6 10.2 14.4 14.2 10.0 6.2 3.2 1.6 PFCs 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total 114.6 112.5 116.5 110.1 95.1 84.9 76.2 66.7 60.0 57.5 Change from 1990 (%) -2% 2% -4% -17% -26% -34% -42% -48% -50% Emissions in this area are projected to fall to 34% below 1990 levels by 2020, and to 48% below by 2030. Improvements over time are attributable to the impact of policies that encourage energy efficiency, such as Building Regulations, minimum energy efficiency standards for new products and economic measures such as the Carbon Reduction Commitment and the Renewable Heat Incentive. These are discussed in Chapter 3: Policies and Measures. 2e was emitted in the transport sector, representing around a quarter of all GHG emissions. It is projected that as we move into the 2030s transport will comprise around 30% of the emissions. Transport emissions are projected to be 5% lower than 1990 levels by 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 123.0 123.3 127.8 131.7 121.3 121.0 117.1 112.8 109.4 107.7 Change from 1990 (%) 0% 4% 7% -1% -2% -5% -8% -11% -12% The underlying growth in road transport use, which was interrupted by the economic recession from 2008, is projected to resume. However, measures to improve vehicle efficiency; such as the EU tailpipe emissions targets for new cars and vans, or to directly reduce emissions, such as mandating greater use of biofuels and providing incentives to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles are expected to reduce annual emissions between now and 2030. 4 and N2O emissions from road transport have been impacted by changing in European vehicle standards and increasing diesel cars over petrol. N2O emissions had been falling since the mid-1990s due to reducing N2O emissions from petrol vehicles with higher emission standards. However, since 2010 they have increased and are projected to continue to do so due to increased diesel activity with associated higher emission factors. Emissions from commercial aviation from flights within the UK’s UNFCCC coverage are projected to increase by 23% in 2020 and by 35% in 2030 compared to 2015 emissions,

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 171 Emissions from industrial processes, which include process emissions from cement and lime production, glass manufacture, steel production, and chemicals manufacture, have fallen sharply in the period up to 2015 compared to 1990, by 79%. Emissions are then projected to fall to 83% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 85% below by 2030. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 14.4 17.7 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total 60.0 50.9 27.1 20.6 12.7 12.7 10.0 9.4 9.0 8.8 Change from 1990 (%) -15% -55% -66% -79% -79% -83% -84% -85% -85% The large historical reductions in emissions of N2O were achieved through the introduction of abatement equipment to control fugitive emissions from adipic acid, and more recently nitric acid and subsequently by the cessation of adipic acid manufacture in the UK. Similarly, the use of abatement technology in the late 1990’s led to a large reduction in emissions of HFC-23 emissions from HCFC-22 manufacture. 4.3.7 Land use change, land use and forestry From 1990, the amount of carbon stored in UK trees has been increasing, with the accumulation rate reaching a net sink of 7 .4 MtCO 2/year in 2015. However, the UK’s experts expect this balance to change in future as forests mature (in mature forests carbon uptake is reduced) and more are felled. By2030 the accumulation rate is projected to have fallen substantially. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 5.7 3.0 0.5 -3.2 -5.8 -7.4 -11.1 -8.9 -6.7 -5.1 Change from 1990 (%) -47% -91% -157% -202% -229% -294% -256% -218% -190% Further information on non-CO2 emissions from LULUCF can be found in Annex N of the Energy and Emissions Projections report136. Annual GHG emissions from waste management were 72% lower than 1990 levels in 2015 and are projected to fall to 79% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 83% by 2030. The historic fall can 136 Add link to Annex N of the Energy and Emissions Projections report

172 7th National Communication largely be attributed to a reduction in CH4 emissions from landfill sites due to the introduction of the Landfill Directive in 2000 and associated measures. These had the aim of reducing the amount of waste going to landfill and improving the collection of methane for energy recovery 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 66.9 69.3 63.0 49.4 31.9 18.4 13.9 12.2 11.2 10.7 Change from 1990 (%) 4% -6% -26% -52% -72% -79% -82% -83% -84% The continuing reduction in waste emissions is caused by the continuing decrease in landfill emissions as more waste is preferentially sent to alternative disposal routes (incineration, biological waste treatment (BWT) and recycling) and small further improvements in landfill efficiency are made. The policy which partially drives this, the Landfill Directive, expires in 2020. Therefore the proportion of waste going to landfill is projected to stop decreasing post 2020, although emissions reductions should continue as landfill emissions lag behind disposal. Partially counteracting the decrease in landfill emissions are projected increases in BWT emissions and domestic wastewater emissions.
Emissions from the agriculture sector showed reductions of 17% on 1990 levels in 2015 which reflects declining livestock numbers and a reduction in the amount of synthetic fertiliser used. The 2 emission is largely related to fewer emissions from mobile machinery. Emissions are projected to be fairly stable through the 2020s and 2030s. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 HFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 59.3 58.7 55.2 51.5 48.9 49.4 46.9 45.0 44.6 44.4 Change from 1990 (%) -1% -7% -13% -17% -17% -21% -24% -25% -25% Each of the sector tables in previous chapters provided information about projected emissions both by sector and by greenhouse gas. This section describes the projected emissions trends

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 173 UK GHG Inventory, 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections UK GHG Inventory, 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decline as trends in energy efficiency, alternative fuels and decline in heavy industry are likely to offset increasing population, transport demand and The largest change expected is the continued decline in CO2 from energy supply as the power sector is decarbonised. This is driven by the Government’s Electricity Market Reform (EMR) policies which incentivise investment in secure, low-carbon electricity – in particular nuclear and Methane emissions have already fallen significantly, by 61%, between 1990 and 2015 and are projected to continue to decline more modestly, by a further 8% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This is largely as a result of expected reductions in landfill waste, with some contribution from decreasing natural gas leakage due to pipe replacement and reducing coal mining. Waste disposal on land was the largest source of CH 4 in 1990, and it is projected to fall further due to the policy-driven diversion of solid wastes to recycling and combustion for energy. Wastewater treatment CH4 emissions reduced slightly from 1990 to 2015 and are projected to Agriculture, which was the third largest source of CH4 in 1990, is now by far the largest and is Coal mining, which was a major source of emissions in 1990, is now much smaller and so can contribute less to future savings, although it is projected to continue to decline. Fugitive emissions from natural gas distribution have already been reduced due to replacement of the UK’s gas pipe infrastructure and it is projected that this will continue. The largest source of N2O in 2015 was agriculture (fertilisation of soils) and although abatement activities, such as implementation of the Nitrates and Water Framework Directive have and will

174 7th National Communication continue to reduce emissions, the projected emissions reductions are modest and agriculture is projected to remain the largest source in 2030. In other sectors, waste N2O emissions are projected to increase due to increased biological waste processes and sewage sludge decomposition. Transport N2O emissions are also projected to increase due to increased diesel vehicle activity. Growth in the economy will also lead to some increased emissions. 4.4.4 Fluorinated gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride The largest source of HFCs emissions in the 1990s was as a by-product of the manufacture of HCFC-23, used as a propellant and refrigerant. Manufacture of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCF) declined rapidly once its ozone depletion and GWP properties were recognised and as a result this reduced emissions of HFC. Use of HFCs has increased, replacing HCFCs phased out as propellants and refrigerants from 1995 onwards. This increase is expected to peak presently and then HFC emissions are projected to reduce by 73% between 2015 and 2030. This significant reduction is caused by the various requirements of the 2014 EU F-gas regulation which specify details of phasing out Historically the largest source of PFCs has been as a by-product of carbon anodes in primary The major uses of SF6 are as a magnesium cover gas, in high-voltage electrical switch gear, as an insulator in semiconductor manufacture and in military Airborne Warning and Control Emissions, though small, have declined throughout the period 1990 – 2015 for use as a cover gas due to declining industrial demand. SF 6 use in the UK is now projected to roughly stabilise at 4.5 Total effect of policies and measures The projections presented here (the ‘with existing measures’ scenario) include the impact of all the UK’s implemented and adopted policies and measures. These policies and measures and their projected CO2e savings are detailed in the Annex. It does not include policies which are classed as planned, so these figures differ from those quoted in the Energy and Emissions Since the last National Communication, the UK has continued to provide updated analysis of policies and measures expected to help meet its EU effort sharing and renewable energy targets, and the targets for the carbon budgets set under the 2008 Climate Change Act. Details of these policies are in Chapter 3. The UK treat the policies adopted before 2009, when carbon budgets were set at the time of the 2009 Budget and the Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP) emissions attributable to policies adopted between April 2009 and July 2017 , as published in the 2017 UK EEP . For example, in 2020 we project that UK policies will deliver emissions reductions 137

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 175 measures2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections Emissions excluding the impact of measures adopted between 2009-15 (baseline) 525 483 470 480 494 Savings from measures adopted 2009-15 (excluding planned policies) 26 69 89 98 109 Emissions including all implemented or adopted measures (excluding planned policies) 499 414 381 382 385 Projections of the UK’s emissions of CO2 and combustion-related emissions of other greenhouses gases (CH4 and nitrous oxide) have been largely derived from the BEIS Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP) model suite.
This models the UK energy market including final sector energy use and the electricity supply sector. It includes a mixed (top down/bottom up) econometric model of energy demand and combustion related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the UK economy and a bottom-up supply side model. The sector classification source, and the principal source of energy statistics, is the Digest of UK Energy Statistics Energy use projections are converted to emissions projections using the same fuel emissions factors used to produce the UK National Inventory, with some additional calibration to take account of any energy uses not captured in the DUKES. Industrial process emissions are calibrated by relating inventory emission to production. The EEP model projects emissions using prospects for fossil fuel prices, carbon prices, economic growth and demographics. Sources for these assumptions are given in the Key These projections included scenarios for high and low fossil fuel price assumptions, high and low GDP growth rates and a baseline excluding post-2009 climate change policies and measures. The projections in the UK are typically presented ‘with existing measures’ and ‘with additional measures’, though these are on a UK-only basis and do not include emissions from crown dependencies and overseas territories. The projections reported in this chapter are

176 7th National Communication based on the ‘with existing measures’ scenario which have been scaled up to include crown dependencies and overseas territories emissions in order to meet UNFCCC requirements. Projections of energy demand by fuel and sector start from a baseline econometric Business as Usual Projection, from which savings due to Policies and Measures are then subtracted. The projections include all firm and funded government environmental policy measures as most recently evaluated. These are all considered to be adopted policies, and for this National Communication we do not include those that only have planned status. The overall modelling approach is similar to that used in the previous National Communication, although there have been improvements in each sector. BEIS use the “Dynamic Dispatch Model” (DDM) to project investment and generation in the electricity supply sector. The DDM is a market based model that simulates in detail the operation of the electricity market and the investment decision of the market participants. It is a profit- maximisation model incorporating the effect of government policies such as ‘Contracts for Difference’ which incentivise low-carbon generation through market mechanisms. From this year, the DDM now also models investment in the supply of heat and electricity from Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, mostly in industry. Emissions from oil refining are calculated from the latest energy consumption statistics from Emissions projections from energy use in the residential sector are produced separately for gas, oil and solid fuels. An assumption is made about the percentage of households using each of these fuels as a main source for heating. The primary drivers of residential energy demand are household numbers, fuel prices, temperature and income. The primary driver of total energy demand in Business is sectoral gross value added (GVA). There are also fuel price and seasonal temperature effects. Fuel share models are then used to decompose this into demands for the individual fuels. When modelling public services, the primary driver of electricity and heating fuel demand is sectoral employment. Similar to commercial services, demand is also influenced by seasonal temperatures and a trend in improved energy intensity per employee. As with commercial services a fuels share model is then used to decompose this heating energy into demand for the individual fuels. In both public and business sectors additional energy efficiency improvements are policy driven. 4.6.5 Land use change, land use and forestry LULUCF emissions projections are produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) and Forest Research on the basis of assumptions applied to the current inventory methodology. Four scenarios (Baseline, Central, High and Low) are produced and the assumptions cover afforestation, wildfires, peat extraction, land use change and deforestation. The scenarios were developed by a policy maker stakeholder group and have been updated in 2016 following discussions with all of the UK devolved administrations. Broadly, the Central scenario is

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 177 a continuation of current policies and activity rates and is the scenario used in generating emissions projections for the purpose of this report. Projected growth in each sector is based on econometric models that estimate sectoral growth, energy use and emissions consistent with the key assumptions and calibrated against sectoral gross value added (GVA), tonnages, reported energy use and the inventory. Industry energy demand and process emissions are projected on a final use sub-sectoral basis. The sub-sectors are defined based on those used in DUKES, with some aggregation for the non-energy intensive sub-sectors. The sub-sectors used are iron & steel (including coke manufacture); non-ferrous metals; chemicals & pharmaceuticals; non-metallic minerals (including non-energy mining & quarrying), pulp, paper & printing; engineering and vehicles; textiles, leather & clothing; other manufacturing (including waste & water treatment); and unclassified. In each sub-sector the primary driver is GVA, except iron & steel where a steel tonnage driver for basic oxygen and electric arc processes has been used. Sub-sector GVAs are estimated from econometric equations that include UK GDP elasticities, World GDP elasticities, effective exchange rate elasticities and time trends. The modelling then allows for price drivers and historical trends in energy intensity, although in the majority of cases the intensity has been Having estimated total energy demand in the sector fuel share models are used to decompose this into demands for the individual fuels. Fuel share models are logit models and include cross- price elasticities and time trends. Process Emissions of CO 2 are stoichiometric (assuming no major changes to the processes used) and are derived from sub-sectoral output drivers. The CO2 road transport model is an econometric response surface model integrated into the economy-wide Energy Demand Model and calibrated against the Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) National Transport Model.
The econometric model is multi-modal; cars, light good vehicles (LGV), heavy goods vehicles (HGV), and public service vehicles (PSV) and includes a population driver for cars and a manufacturing GVA driver for HGVs as well as price, motor spirit/ diesel engine share and fuel efficiency and biofuel substitution effects. Most energy efficiency improvements are policy driven, e.g. by EU new car emissions intensity targets, biofuel content targets and complementary measures such as lower rolling resistance tyres for HGVs. Unlike in other demand sectors, the impacts of policies and measures in road transport on fuel demand are modelled within the economy-wide Energy Demand Model. Road vehicle efficiencies, motor spirit/diesel engine shares and biofuel use under different policy scenarios are fed into the model and mitigation impacts calculated from the differences in 2 road transport emissions projections follow a bottom up calculation methodology in line with that used to calculate the historical time-series of emissions. The activity data - vehicle distance travelled - is projected using 2015 DfT traffic forecasts138. The rail model is based on DfT’s projected traffic growth, electrification of existing track and the construction of new lines, such as Crossrail and High Speed 2 (HS2). Projected emissions mitigation from electrification of existing track is reported in CTF3. 138

178 7th National Communication Emissions projections for UK commercial aviation are produced by DfT using projections of UK GDP , consumer expenditure, population and oil prices. Efficiency improvements are modelled using the Fleet Mix Model and assumptions of increasing use of biofuels are included. DfT provide more detailed information on methodology and assumptions alongside the aviation 139. Aviation emissions projections are extended to UNFCCC coverage by extrapolating historical trends in the Greenhouse Gas Inventory. National navigation is projected to remain largely static. Agriculture is a small use of energy in the UK, therefore simple trend models are used to project emissions from energy consumption in agriculture. For non-energy agriculture emissions, activity data projections (livestock numbers, crop production, fertiliser nitrogen use) to 2030 (note that we flat line post 2030), were provided by DEFRA using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) methodology.140 The FAPRI projections are based on an economic model assuming a specific set of international prices for agricultural commodities and a particular path for the sterling exchange rate. Together these factors are important determinants of the returns to farmers and hence total agricultural production. The FAPRI activity projections are converted to agriculture emissions projections using the latest agriculture GHGI model. 4 from landfill are based on projections of tonnages of waste to landfill provided by DEFRA (municipal waste) and HMRC (commercial and industrial waste). We project composition from the changes to BWT processes and Defra projections of waste arising. These projections of waste to landfill are then run through MELMod141, the landfill emissions calculation model. MELMod is based on the first-order decay Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology, and is summarised in the 2014 GHGI report142. CH4 and N2O from domestic wastewater and sewage and sludge decomposition are driven by ONS population projections. Industrial wastewater emissions are projected to be constant. Emissions projections from BWT are combined from multiple sources, some of which are projected to be constant and some of which are extrapolated from the latest year based on sector experts’ estimates of expected BWT capacity in 2020. 4.6.10 Estimation of emissions in Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories The UK’s dependant crown dependencies and overseas territories are not included in the projections the UK produces annually to monitor progress against its own carbon budgets. For this National Communication the UK has supplemented its annual projection with projections for these areas consistent with the UK 1990 – 2015 GHG Inventory (see chapter 1). Emissions in these territories are only a small proportion of UK emissions, making up around 0.7% of the UK’s UNFCCC coverage emissions in 2015. The UK has produced simple trend projections for GHGs within each National Communication sector, assuming a continuation of the linear trends observed in the period 2007 – 2015. 139 140 141 142

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 179 4.6.11 Strengths and weaknesses of the projection methodology The UK’s modelling methodology has the following • The initial starting points for the projections are the latest actuals from the Inventory and DUKES. These projections are based on 2015 Inventory and 2016 energy statistics, both published in 2017 . These are well established sources of information. • Projections are updated annually for the UK, as part of our monitoring against UK • It uses authoritative national and international sources for socio economic projections. • There is a rolling programme of review and update of the projection methodologies and econometric models. Models are tested by back-casting to see if they explain what has happened in the recent past. • The projections distinguish between ‘business as usual’ and the reductions in emissions as a consequence of mitigating policies and measures. • Estimates of savings from policies and measures in the projections are taken from the impact assessments for those policies applying a common methodology across government for GHG mitigation measures. • The model uses econometric methodologies that capture long-running relationships between economic activity, energy consumption and emissions. We have a detailed model of the operation of the electricity generation sector that captures both short-run fuel switching and long-term investment strategies. The UK’s modelling methodology has the following • The modelling generally assumes that historical relationships will continue to apply in the future. It can fail to capture structural changes and new technologies where these fall outside the scope of included policies and measures. • There is considerable, recognised uncertainty in the economic and social projections that we take from external sources. • Econometric modelling is subject to estimation errors and the possibility of incorrect identification of drivers of energy use. The UK’s energy and emissions projections are based on a set of key assumptions about UK economic growth, demographic changes in the UK and future fuel price trajectories.
The main sources of the projections are the forecasts made by the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility and Office for National Statistics, supplemented by IMF projections of world growth. Fuel prices are those produced by BEIS. The key parameters and assumptions are documented in CTF Updated Energy and Emissions Projections are published annually. This uses the economic assumptions and projections produced for the UK government by the Office of Budget

180 7th National Communication UK GDP up to 2021 is based on the March 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook143 and beyond 2021 is based on the January 2017 Fiscal Sustainability Report144. Population projections were produced in 2014 by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS)145 alongside a supporting methodology description146. Household projections are based on those produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government which combine ONS population projections with household formation propensities147. Projections were produced separately for England (2014), Scotland (2012), Wales (2011) and Northern Ireland (2012) and combined to produce UK figures. % per annum 2013 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 UK Population 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% UK Households 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections The fossil fuel price projections148 and carbon prices projections149 are updated annually by BEIS and are subject to peer review. They are also used more widely across government. Key fossil fuel and carbon price values are set out below in 2017 prices Units 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 Crude oil (Brent 1 month) $/bbl 55.9 45.8 57.0 69.0 80.0 80.0 Gas (NBP) p/therm 44.5 35.6 43.0 55.0 67.0 67.0 Coal (CIF ARA) $/tonne 58.0 57.0 65.0 77.0 88.0 88.0 EU ETS carbon price £/tCO2 5.8 4.5 4.6 13.2 39.4 39.4 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 143 144 145 bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29 146 methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi 147 148 149 Tables_for_DECC-HMT_Supplementary_Appraisal_Guidance.xlsx

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 181 Units 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 US Dollars $ per £ 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Euros € per £ 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Coal (CIF ARA) $/tonne 58.0 57.0 65.0 77.0 88.0 88.0 EU ETS carbon price £/tCO2 5.8 4.5 4.6 13.2 39.4 39.4 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 4.8 Quality Assurance/Quality Control Quality assurance of modelling undertaken by government departments has taken on a greater emphasis following the publication of the Macpherson Review in 2013150. Energy projections and the energy-related emission projections are produced in BEIS by a small team (the ‘EEP modelling team’) whose key task is the production of energy and emissions projections and the communication of results. This team also puts together the overall projections and quality assures the inputs from the other teams. 2 projections are produced in BEIS within the Science division. LULUCF projections are produced under contract by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. Transport modelling by the modelling team is based on and calibrated against the detailed models for Road, Rail and Air used within the DfT and which are in turn subject to quality Policy savings are prepared and submitted by analytical teams in the relevant policy areas and are normally based on the Impact Assessments prepared for that policy. Impact assessments are prepared following central guidance to make sure energy use and GHG emissions are valued consistently across government. To ensure the quality of these appraisals, the Interdepartmental Analysts’ Group (IAG) on Energy and Climate Change offers a cross- government multi-disciplinary peer review forum for policy appraisals and other analysis. Policy savings are submitted using a standard template and are checked by the modelling team for any unaccounted overlaps and for internal consistency between energy and emissions savings. Model savings are also confirmed with the submitting teams and departments. The UK’s national emissions projections are updated on an annual cycle so as to inform the UK’s progress against its carbon budgets. Changes are made to the model incrementally and then quality assured to confirm that the change has face validity. Results from the electricity generation sub-sector modelling are quality assured independently by the team responsible for the DDM. Both interim and final results are presented to a steering group and also circulated to The annual published projections are formally reviewed by the Committee on Climate Change 150 analytical_models_final_report_040313.pdf

182 7th National Communication The published annexes for the UK’s Energy and Emissions Projections, published in December 2017 projections included the following variant scenarios/sensitivities: • Low and high fossil fuel prices. The fossil fuel prices scenarios used assumptions as Fossil fuel 2017 Prices 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 Crude oil (Brent 1 month) $/bbl 45.8 36.0 45.0 55.0 55.0 Gas (NBP) p/therm 35.6 34.0 36.0 39.0 39.0 Coal (CIF ARA) $/tonne 57.0 43.0 52.0 61.0 61.0 Crude oil (Brent 1 month) $/bbl 45.8 77.0 98.0 120.0 120.0 Gas (NBP) p/therm 35.6 62.0 72.0 83.0 83.0 Coal (CIF ARA) $/tonne 57.0 89.0 102.0 115.0 115.0 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections These scenarios were produced by applying a fundamental analysis of the drivers of the wholesale prices of the main fossil fuel prices available to the UK within the European energy 151.
They are not sensitivities to the overall level of fossil fuel prices and do not maintain The UK GDP growth sensitivities, set at +/- 25 basis points per annum with respect to the reference Units 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 Low UK GDP Growth %pa 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% High UK GDP Growth %pa 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 151

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 183 4.9.3 Total GHG emissions using variant assumptions These parameter variants give us four variant emissions Reference scenario 444.7 403.1 369.5 358.3 348.1 Low Fossil Fuel Prices 444.7 410.5 375.1 369.2 358.3 High Fossil Fuel Prices 444.7 406.9 368.1 350.6 340.6 Low UK GDP Growth 444.8 402.0 366.8 354.2 343.7 High UK GDP Growth 444.7 404.4 372.0 362.6 352.7 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections Fossil fuel prices, policy impact, economic and demographic growth are all subject to modelling error and natural variation driven by factors such as temperature. In order to model this, randomly selected trajectories of values drawn from the uncertainty ranges for 36 key parameters, including GDP , population, fossil fuel prices, annual temperatures and policy savings were combined in a 10000 run Monte Carlo simulation to assess the Upper 95% confidence interval 799 496 384 348 334 Reference projection 1 799 496 403 369 358 Lower 95% confidence interval 799 496 425 393 384 Upper 95% confidence interval, % difference from reference - - -5% -6% -7% Lower 95% confidence interval, % difference from reference - - 6% 6% 7% Upper 95% confidence interval, % change on 1990 values - -38% -52% -56% -58% Reference, % change on 1990 values - -38% -50% -54% -55% Lower 95% confidence interval, % change on 1990 values - -38% -47% -51% -52% It is projected that in 2020, UK emissions on GHGs will be between 47% and 52% below 1990 levels, with the central estimate 50% below. 184 7th National Communication Annual total territorial emissions, MtCO2e 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections29 4.10 Differences from the last National Communication National Communication, which was based on projections produced in 2015. The main differences between the two projections include additional implemented and adopted polices, some re-estimations of the impact of policies, improved modelling, revised fossil fuel price and economic growth assumptions. The projections have also been updated to take into account improvements to the historical inventory and other improvements to methods, emission factors and activity data. The effect of changes to the inventory are summarised in Chapter 1. The net effect of these changes is to reduce projected emissions in 2020 from 43% below 1990 levels in the Sixth National Communication to 48% below 1990 levels in the Seventh National Communication. The projected reduction of 24 MtCO 2 between the two projections is mostly due to projected reductions in CO2 and N2O emissions. MtCO2e Sixth National Communication Seventh National Communication GHG including LULUCF 1990 2020 Projected Carbon Dioxide 593.5 359.8 -39% 598.5 333.8 -44% Methane 99.2 36.3 -63% 135.3 46.8 -65% Nitrous Oxide 68.3 33.0 -52% 51.3 22.1 -57% Hydrofluorocarbons 11.4 8.6 -25% 14.4 11.1 -23% Perfluorocarbons 1.4 0.2 -84% 1.7 0.3 -84% Sulphur Hexafluoride 1.0 0.6 -43% 1.3 0.4 -70% Nitrogen Trifluoride - - na 0.0 0.0 -100% Total GHG 774.8 438.5 -43% 802.5 414.4 -48% 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections

Chapter 4 : Projections of GHG Emissions, scenarios with measures 185

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, Government Action – Since the publication of the 6th National Communication (2013), the UK has passed a number of further significant milestones, including the publication of the country’s second Climate Change Risk Assessment (2017) and two statutory assessments of progress (2015 and 2017) on the first National Adaptation Programme. UK Climate Projections – The UK’s climate projections were released in summer 2009 (UKCP09) and relate to current and future climate change up to 2100. They were used in both the first and second UK Climate Change Risk Assessments published in January 2012 and 2017 . We have been working towards updating these projections in 2018 (UKCP18). Work builds upon the current set of projections to provide the most up-to date assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century. UKCP18 will update the probabilistic projections over land and provide a set of high-resolution spatially-coherent future climate projections for the globe at 60km scale and for the UK at 12km scale. Projections will be further downscaled to a level previously only used for short-term meteorological modelling allowing realistic simulation of high impact events such as localised heavy rainfall in summer. The marine projections will also be updated for sea-level rise and storm surge. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – The Climate Change Act 2008 requires a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) to be completed every five years. The first UK CCRA was published in January 2012 and identified over 700 risks to the UK from a changing climate. The second CCRA was published in January 2017 and outlines the UK and Devolved Governments’ views on the key climate change risks and opportunities that the UK faces. Six priority risk areas have been identified where further action is needed in the next five years. The National Adaptation Programme –The first National Adaptation Programme (NAP) was published in July 2013 covering England and non-devolved climate adaptation matters, as required by the Climate Change Act 2008. Assessments of progress in implementing the NAP , also required every two years by the Climate Change Act, were completed in June 2015 and 2017 by the independent Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change. The 2017 assessment concluded that actions in the NAP have largely been completed, identifying where progress is being made or where further efforts are needed to reduce vulnerability. 188 7th National Communication Climate adaptation policy is a devolved matter.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have established their own adaptation programmes while the UK Government leads on adaptation policy in England and UK reserved matters. The UK Administrations are committed to working closely together to share best practice and develop UK wide initiatives where appropriate. Building on the UK’s strong start on adapting to climate change reported in the sixth communication, the UK continues to make progress in equipping ourselves to cope with a broad range of potential changes in our climate. This chapter describes the ways in which the UK continues to develop its adaptation strategies to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change and their economic, environmental and social costs. The ongoing work that the UK is undertaking in relation to adaptation is underpinned by Part 4 of the UK Climate Change 152 (“the Act”) (Section 3.3.6). The Act sets out a framework for building the UK’s ability to adapt to climate change, by • that a UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) must take place every five • that a National Adaptation Programme (NAP) must be put in place and reviewed every five years to address the most pressing climate change risks; • a power for the government to require public authorities and public and private companies that provide our infrastructure and related services (for example, water and energy utility companies) to report on how they have assessed the risks of climate change to their work, and what they are doing to address those risks; • the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change to oversee progress on the government’s climate change adaptation programme, advising on the CCRA and evaluating progress on implementing the NAP . On 1 July 2013 the first NAP was published covering England and non-devolved climate adaptation matters, as required by the Climate Change Act 2008. The over-arching aim of the NAP is to shape a society which makes timely far-sighted and well-informed decisions to address the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate. The NAP sets out actions and commitments from the UK government, industry, local authorities and civil society to build up UK resilience to climate change. The NAP provides an overview of UK government’s policies and programmes on adapting to climate change and describes over 370 actions to be taken over the five year period of the first NAP . The NAP sets out how the UK is adapting to projected climate change impacts based on information provided by the UK Climate Projections 2009 and the findings of the Climate Assessments of progress in implementing the NAP , also required every two years by the Climate Change Act, were completed in June 2015 and 2017 by the independent Adaptation Sub- Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change. In the 2017 assessment by the ASC, 51% of actions are assessed as complete and an additional 35% are considered on track or ongoing by those responsible for their delivery. 152

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 189 Since the ASC’s first statutory report new measures have been introduced in some priority areas, in part prompted by events such as the severe storms and flooding in 2015 and 2016. Measures include more funding for flood and coastal defence projects, and steps to encourage flood resilient repairs to be made to affected properties as standard practice. UK government’s approach is to integrate consideration of climate risks and adaptation across all policies, programmes and activities within government and beyond. This means that as understanding of and action on climate risks develops during the period of the NAP , further actions and activities are put in place that build upon and extend those already outlined in 5.2.2 Scottish Government programme Publication of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme brings into force the adaptation requirement of the public bodies duties introduced by section 44 of the Act. This requires public bodies, within the definition of the Act, to act in the best way possible to help deliver the Scottish government’s adaptation programme. The Climate Change (S) Act 2009 placed a duty on Ministers to lay a programme for climate change adaptation before the Scottish Parliament as soon as reasonably practicable after they receive the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) for Scotland. The Scottish Government launched Scotland’s first Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) in 2014. It is funded by SG but delivered by Sniffer via Adaptation Scotland. The gateway website showcases case studies and provides supporting resources. The SCCAP aimed “to increase the resilience of Scotland’s people, environment and economy to the impacts of a changing climate”. It has around 150 individual policies and proposals spanning three themes (Natural Environment, Buildings and Infrastructure, and Society) and six objectives. It was developed by extensive public consultation and Parliamentary scrutiny. The act also requires an annual report on progress and the advisory body (ASC) to prepare a report within 2 years setting out its independent assessment of the progress made on objectives, proposals and policies set out in the programme. The first, second and third annual progress reports were produced in 2015, 2016 and 2017 , setting out progress in detailed tables An independent assessment was undertaken in Sept 2016, where the SCCAP was recognised by the Adaptation sub Committee (ASC) as a positive start in taking steps to prepare for climate change. This took into account the Evidence Report for CCRA2 prepared in 2016, which comprised a synthesis report for the UK as a whole, technical chapters and national summaries, including one for Scotland. The Evidence Report was published in July 2016 and used the concept of urgency to summarise the findings of the analysis, variously identifying ‘more action needed’, ‘research priority’, ‘sustain current action’ and ‘watching brief’ categories.
It The need for more action to address flood risks / The potential for water scarcity / Heat related impacts on health and wellbeing / Risks to the natural environment / Risks of food price volatility; and New and emerging pest and disease risks, especially for Scotland’s forestry. (Notably many of the actions identified as priorities for other parts of the UK were shown to be less critical for Scotland at this stage.) The independent assessment confirmed that steps were being taken to prepare Scotland for climate change, the SCCAP was a positive start with almost all of its 148 policies and proposals reported as being on track and it acknowledged that it provided a solid foundation for further progress. However, the assessment highlighted a number of evidence gaps that meant it was difficult to determine whether key vulnerabilities are being suitably addressed and there was

190 7th National Communication insufficient evidence to judge progress.’ Additionally, there is a need for more adaptation specific, effective steps to directly confront and tackle the risks highlighted. Also, more could be done to make sure Scotland is ready to realise the opportunities that milder winters and warmer 5.2.3 Welsh Government programme Wales has strengthened its legislative requirements to build resilience to the impacts of climate change through the Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the Environment (Wales) Act 2016. Climate change is integral to all of the Well-being Goals and there is specific reference to a resilient Wales, which includes resilience to the effects of climate change. Climate change is also a key element of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales’ role and the Future Trends Report and Public Service Board well-being assessments will need to take into account the latest Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). In light of this new legislation and the emerging evidence, such as the Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report prepared by the Committee on Climate Change , the Welsh Government are now developing a new Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Wales, to be We anticipate the Plan will focus • Tackling the key risks identified in the Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 . • Supporting disadvantaged groups and vulnerable communities to build resilience to • Establishing mechanisms and timescales for addressing research priorities. • Clearly define the actions to be taken at an all Wales level, and those for which local delivery partners (such as Public Service Boards) are responsible. We recognise that the latest CCRA evidence findings have implications across all sectors of Welsh Government including Health, Communities, Transport, Housing, Economy, Agriculture, Food and Environment. These implications are important considerations for our key decisions In the meantime, we continue to deliver on the actions in the current Climate Change Strategy for Wales and to invest in our work programme in key areas, such as Flood and Coastal Risk Management and delivering on the priorities identified in our National Natural Resources Policy. The Climate Change Strategy for Wales and associated Emission Reduction and Adaptation Delivery Plans, published in 2010, set out the areas where they will act and how they will work with their partners, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support effective adaptation to a The Strategy sets out an Adaptation framework to present a national, coordinated approach to ensure that Wales understands the risks and opportunities that climate change presents, and is well placed to adapt in a sustainable way. The Welsh government is building resilience in Wales through sectors, organisations and places across Wales. The Welsh government has published Parts 1-5 of Preparing for a Changing Climate statutory guidance which helps organisations in Wales to assess, prepare and act on risks from a changing climate. The guidance sets out a five-part, cyclical risk assessment approach for building resilience and developing a planned response to the threats and opportunities from climate change. The guidance has been developed in response to the Climate Change Act

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 191 The Natural Resources Policy was published on 21 August 2017 . Its publication marked the second major milestone in the implementation of the Environment (Wales) Act 2016. The Natural Resources Policy sets out the national priorities we will take forward to address the challenges our natural resources face and realise the significant opportunities that they provide for our well-being and prosperity. The Natural Resources Policy will drive delivery across all of the Well-being Goals, delivering win-wins for our communities and our economy whilst also There are three national priorities which were welcomed by stakeholders on which we need to • The delivery of nature-based solutions • Increasing renewable energy and resource efficiency, and • Taking a place-based approach. The Natural Resources Policy will drive action across the whole of the Welsh Government and will require partnership working with stakeholders across sectors. Natural Resources Wales will now develop Area Statements to support delivery of the Natural Resources Policy in a local context, for example by providing evidence for Local Development Plans, Well-being Assessments and by encouraging local, collaborative action. 5.2.4 Northern Ireland Government programme In Northern Ireland, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) takes the lead on climate change issues. 153 It works closely with Defra and the Devolved Administrations of Scotland and Wales. The current NI Climate Change Adaptation Programme, produced in 2014, focuses on three • Integrating adaptation into relevant key policy areas; • Developing the evidence base; • Communication and cooperation. To take account of cross cutting issues in the government’s response to the climate change risks and opportunities being brought forward in the NICCAP , four priority areas for action have A second Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme is being developed, as required by section 60 of the UK Climate Change Act 2008. It will contain the response of the Northern Ireland government to the risks and opportunities identified in the NI Summary of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, which was produced in 2017 .
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192 7th National Communication Climate NI was established in 2008 to help fulfil the NI Executive’s obligations to address climate change impacts. It is funded by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) and is governed by a Steering Group composed of organisations from a wide range of sectors. These include central and local government, the business and voluntary communities and academia. Its aims are to share best practice, increase the understanding of the impacts of climate change in Northern Ireland, to share knowledge, promote action and provide independent advice to all Government Departments. Climate NI provides a vital link between the environmental NGOs, business sectors, and government. 5.3 Impacts of a changing climate in the UK The UK has a well-established foundation for assessing the impacts of climate change, and progressing understanding, guidance and action on adaptation. Current climate projections suggest that, even with significant global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increases in temperature are expected over coming decades. Without mitigation policy the current best evidence suggests global temperature increases of several degrees are likely. The UKCP09 projections produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre provide information on a UK spatial scale and include an assessment of the degree of certainty in the result. These projections underpinned evidence used in the first and second UK CCRA.. The UKCP09 projections suggest that the most likely increase in temperatures under a medium high emission scenario is around 3 to 4°C in summer and 2 to 3°C in winter, but with spatial variations. It also projects a trend of changing rainfall, with decreases in the summer and increases in the winter, but little annual change. It is important to emphasise that on top of these trends there will be annual variability so that, for instance, there will still be some cold wet summers, although their frequency will be different to that of today. With these changing climatic conditions, UKCP09 indicates that we might expect to experience the following in future • Periods of continuously high temperatures longer than we are used to and higher peak temperatures – the summer heatwave experienced in 2003 is likely to become a normal event by the 2040s and be considered cool by the 2080s. • Decreased seasonal rainfall in summer, perhaps leading to drought, lower river flow • More frequent periods of heavy rainfall, especially in winter which may lead to • Continuing global sea level rise – by 2100 sea levels could have risen by around 80cm around some parts of the UK coast, and even larger increases cannot be ruled out although have only a small probability. • Increased frequency of coastal flooding by surge events is also expected, primarily as a result of the rising mean sea level. At some locations an extreme water level with a 50 year return period today may occur more frequently than once per decade by the The impacts of these changes will vary from place to place, just as weather and the effect it has on society varies across the country. For example, UKCP09 suggest that by the 2080s, under a medium emissions scenario, mean summer temperatures in parts of southern England will

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 193 increase by 4.2ºC for a central estimate (i.e.50% probability, while 10% and 90% probability levels show an increase of 2.2ºC to 6.8ºC respectively) whereas in the Scottish islands the increase may only be 2.5ºC (1.2 to 4.1ºC for the 10% and 90% probability levels). Winter precipitation is projected to increase under the same scenarios up to +33% (+9 to +70%) along the western side of the UK, but decreases of a few per cent (–11 to +7%) are projected over parts of the Scottish Highlands. In contrast summer precipitation is projected to decrease by about –40% (–65 to –6%), in parts of the far south of England, with changes close to zero (–8 to +10%) over parts of northern Scotland. UKCP09 has informed key policies and programmes • The Environment Agency’s Long Term Investment Scenarios for Flood and Coastal • Water Companies’ five-yearly water resource plans • The National planning policy framework and local planning decisions UK Government has commissioned an updated set of climate projections for the UK that will be prepared by the Met Office and will be available in 2018. The projections – called UKCP18 – will provide information on how the climate of the UK may change over the rest of this century. UKCP18 will inform the Government’s third and fourth Climate Change Risk Assessments (due for completion in 2022 and 2027) and subsequent revisions to the National Adaptation Programme. UKCP18 will be an important source of information for other UK organisations that have to manage climate impacts on their assets and operations. The first UK climate change risk assessment was published in January 2012. It identified over 700 risks to the UK from a changing climate and focused on around 100 of them to determine their severity and likelihood in the short, medium and long term. The first CCRA assessed climate risks for the UK using the UKCP09 for three time periods – 30year periods centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s and three emission scenarios. The CCRA classified risks and opportunities into three broad impact classes, ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ and also identified those risks that are highly uncertain and difficult to quantify. The results of the assessment are presented under five • Buildings and infrastructure; Climate change risks in each theme were presented in terms of the range of potential magnitude of the risk, how magnitude varies over time and the overall confidence in the findings of the assessment. The method focused attention on risks where decisions need to be made in the near future (i.e. in the next 5 years). The second CCRA was published in January 2017 and identifies six priority risk areas where action is needed in the next five years.
To underpin both the first and second UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, the Government commissioned independent expert studies of the available evidence which have been published in the form of supporting evidence reports. 194 7th National Communication The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report for the second CCRA was prepared by the Adaptation Sub-Committee, which was asked to address the ‘Based on the latest understanding of current, and future, climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation, what should the priorities be for the next UK National Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the devolved administrations?’ In order to assess climate risks in a consistent way, and to facilitate action being focused on the most pressing risks, the Adaptation Sub-Committee took a three-step approach to assess the urgency of additional action for each climate risk and • considering the magnitude of the risk now and in the future; • taking into account policies and adaptation plans already in place to manage the risks; • considering the potential benefits of further action. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report also goes further than the first in considering international climate risks that could have consequences for the UK, as well as the interdependencies between the various climate risks. The Adaptation Sub-Committee’s full Evidence Report comprises an overarching Synthesis Report, which summarises the conclusions of eight technical chapters and highlights six groups of priority risks where additional action is recommended in the next five years. The six priority risk areas encompass most of the individual risks that are identified as needing ‘more action’. The risks and opportunities from climate change will vary across the UK because of geography and the policy frameworks that exist in the different countries. In addition to summarising the priorities for the UK, the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report identifies the priorities for each of the countries in the UK in separate national summaries. based on the UK-wide assessment, but take account of the particular risks to each country and where urgent action is required. The six priority risk areas identified in the second CCRA, where action is needed in the next five i) Flooding and coastal change risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure The Evidence Report presents compelling evidence that climate change may lead to increases in heavy rainfall and significantly increased risks from fluvial and surface flooding by mid-century. Rising sea levels may further increase the risk of flooding and erosion along our coastline. The Evidence Report recommends more ambitious approaches to adaptation, working with communities, businesses and other partners to meet this challenge • ensuring there are long-term strategies in place to address projected risks to people, • delivering more natural flood management and developing a more integrated approach in high-risk catchments, especially where there are likely to be co-benefits such as carbon storage, water quality and biodiversity benefits. ii) Risks to health, well-being and productivity from high temperatures Warming UK temperatures, combined with demographic change, may lead to an increased risk of overheating. The evidence report projects that the number of heat-related deaths in the UK could more than double by the 2050s from a current baseline of around 2,000 per year. It states that urgent action is needed in the next five years across a range of policy areas to address overheating in homes and public buildings and to reduce the impacts of the urban heat island effect through urban design and planning. Further information is needed on impacts

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 195 of overheating on employee productivity and further research is needed to understand the influence of climate change on ground-level ozone and other outdoor air pollutants (especially particulates), and how climate, temperature and other factors (eg individual behaviour) affect The Evidence Report also notes some potential opportunities associated with higher temperatures. Outdoor activities may become more attractive, with perhaps an increase in active transport, such as cycling, and walking leading to benefits for health and wellbeing, as well as climate change mitigation from reductions in car use. However, these benefits need to be set against the potential for greater exposure to the risks from sunlight, ultraviolet radiation and air pollution. Warmer winters could also lead to fewer cold-related deaths, which currently account for a greater number of excess deaths than periods of very hot weather. Cold spells and snow storms interrupt travel for patients and staff. Fewer cold events in future will benefit health system management. Several estimates of the reduction in cold-related mortality exist. Hajat et al (2014) estimated that cold-related mortality would decline by 2% in 2050 from a baseline of around 41,000 deaths. The benefit from climate warming will not be sufficient to reduce the need for public health interventions for cold. iii) Risks of shortages in the public water supply, and for agriculture, energy generation and industry, with impacts on freshwater ecology Climate change combined with population growth may put greater pressure on water availability. By the 2050s, many catchments across the UK will need to manage water deficits and competing demands for water for public supply, industry, agriculture and the environment. The Evidence Report recognises that the policy framework for managing these long-term risks exists. Continued action will be needed that is flexible enough to take account of the high degree of uncertainty about future projections of seasonal rainfall and therefore the frequency and intensity of water shortages and drought. iv) Risks to natural capital, including terrestrial, coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems, There are significant threats to our natural capital and the goods and services it provides, from timber, food and clean water to pollination, carbon storage and the cultural benefits of landscapes and wildlife. The Evidence Report shows that direct impacts on the distribution of UK species and the composition of terrestrial, coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems are already being observed. There is clear evidence of northwards shifts in species distributions and the timing of seasonal events due to climate change.
The Evidence Report highlights important links between climate change impacts on natural capital and the other risk areas. For example, the natural environment plays an integral role in the quality and availability of our water and on the magnitude of flood events. It provides the backdrop to the movement of pests and diseases, and can play a role in addressing overheating through urban trees and green spaces. The report also identifies potential opportunities for agriculture and forestry in the form of extended growing seasons, increased productivity and new crop varieties that would have potential benefits for domestic food production. In order for these opportunities to be realised, however, there is a need to manage the negative impacts from reduced soil quality and water availability and the increase in flooding and pests and diseases. The Evidence Report concludes that, while good progress is being made, strengthened action is needed over the next five years to reduce existing pressures on the environment. More

196 7th National Communication flexible and integrated approaches to managing natural capital need to be adopted and priority research undertaken into the changing suitability of land for different uses and the climate risks v) Risks to domestic and international food production and trade Extreme weather can affect international food production, trade and supply chains. Longer-term incremental changes in climate will affect agricultural productivity in regions that are important for food production. At the same time, climate change will present risks and opportunities for domestic production, with the resilience of UK food systems dependent on the stewardship of natural resources including soils and responses to international markets. The resilience of food supply chains is regularly tested by severe weather and other events, and consistently performs well. However, food production and security is still a clear research priority. vi) New and emerging pests and diseases, and invasive non-native species, affecting people, New and emerging pests and diseases – including invasive non-native species – have the potential to cause severe impacts on people, animals and plants. The evidence report concludes that there is an urgent need for research in the next five years to improve our understanding of how climate change will affect the threat of pests and diseases and the best approaches to monitor, detect and manage outbreaks and develop resilience to disease (eg through developing new crop varieties and breeding techniques). It finds that the evidence is not yet clear as to what extent surveillance is effective in identifying risks, or whether resources are prioritised towards those vectors and pathogens that pose the biggest challenge in the changing climate. Research is also needed to improve the evidence about the impact of endemic diseases in a changing environment. To be able to take effective decisions on how to adapt, individuals and organisations need a reliable understanding about the likely consequences of climate change. A wide range of work has been carried out to provide the evidence base on which adaptation decisions can be taken. Along with the UK Climate Projections and the CCRA, we continue to develop the evidence base, building on work undertaken by the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, the UK Climate Impacts Programme and other work funded by government, UK Research Councils and other Living with environmental change (LWEC) was a network of 20 UK public-sector organisations that funded, carried out and used environmental research. The LWEC Network enhanced the impact of the UK’s publicly-funded environmental change research, evidence and innovation by enabling members to co-ordinate strategic activities. By leveraging resources and avoiding duplication, network members could be more efficient in their use of public funds to give decision-makers the knowledge they need to make informed responses to environmental change. UK Government supported LWEC to develop Climate Change Impact Report Cards. There are report cards on Biodiversity, Water, Agriculture & Forestry, Health and Infrastructure, with more in development. The cards provide a summary of the latest scientific research on the impacts of climate change on the UK. Some of this work is now taken forward by LWEC’s successor, the Research and Innovation for our Dynamic Environment (RIDE) Forum. This forum includes 19 public sector organisations which enhances the impact of the UK’s publicly-funded environmental change research, evidence and innovation by enabling members to coordinate The UK Met Office provides world-leading weather forecasting and climate modelling and shares this expertise with countries around the world. The UK Met Office works in partnership

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 197 for sustainable development through worldwide delivery of weather and climate services. These services aid planning to protect against disasters, underpin socioeconomic growth, inform policy and help societies prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. UK government funds the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme that provides world- leading climate science that supports the UK’s contribution to international initiatives, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and country capacity building projects funded through the UK Government’s Newton Fund. Met Office science is integrated into European and international science initiatives such as the European Commission Horizon 2020 projects and the Grand Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme, and through the expanding agenda of climate services being supported by the Copernicus programme and the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Framework for Climate Services. 5.4 Examples of adaptation in the UK There are many examples of adaptation in practice in the UK. The first NAP alone sets out over 370 actions focusing on the highest order risks from the CCRA. The sixth communication set out an extensive range of policy approaches, examples and case studies on adaptation to climate change across the whole of the UK organised by each of the thematic areas covered by the first UK NAP . Following are some further examples of adaptation actions and approaches across the UK administrations which add to those reported in the sixth national communication. This is far from an exhaustive list.
UK government NAP (covering England/UK reserved matters), Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme, Northern Ireland Adaptation Programme, Climate Change Strategy for Wales and the Welsh government’s Sectoral Adaptation Plans should be referred to for an overview of UK adaptation actions. Assessments of progress by the Adaptation Sub- Committee provide a comprehensive oversight of adaptation actions and progress in the UK. Many more assessments and progress reports across the range of UK administrations’ activities outline the ways in which climate risks and the need to adapt to a changing climate are integrated within the UK’s broader policies and programmes. 5.4.1 The climate ready support service The Climate Ready Support Service for England, established in October 2011 and provided by the Environment Agency, completed its work programme in March 2016. The service provided advice and support to businesses, the public sector and other organisations to enable them to adapt to the changing climate. The service helped organisations build their own capacity to adapt by incorporating climate risk management into their plans and decision making. The Service covered England only, but the products generated are available for use across the UK and elsewhere and continue to support organisations in identifying and addressing the risks that The support service complemented the roles and responsibilities the EA has on flood risk and coastal erosion, safeguarding water resources, and protecting the water and wetland environment. The EA is experienced in considering longer term climate risks in these areas and the support service has been developed closely with the NAP . The service was split into two priority • A digital service providing adaptation tools, guidance and information for key users; • A targeted approach providing both direct and indirect support to priority services and

198 7th National Communication The EA worked with local authorities, other government bodies, business sectors and civil society, and partners such as the Local Government Association and the Climate Change Partnerships across England. Support was tailored to key themes which mirror those in the By 2016 the majority of NAP actions to which the CRSS Service was contributing were either complete or ongoing without the need for support from the service. The CRSS produced or supported a range of tools and products to help organisations in preparing for climate change which remain available to support UK businesses and communities adapt to climate change. • Guidance on resilient local highways, business continuity, a resilient built environment, making the case for adapting the built environment, tackling overheating, adaptation for health and social care, the paper and pulp sector, chemicals businesses, and the food and drink sector, resilient supply chains, farm business resilience, business opportunities, and climate-proofing health and wellbeing strategies, adaptation in the natural environment, and a quick guide for small and medium-sized businesses. • Tools to better understand social vulnerability and climate change, monitor impacts of severe weather, assess climate impacts on businesses, business resilience and farm business resilience, analyse the costs and benefits of adaptation, project climate change impacts on wetlands, assess the climate resilience of catchment management methods, and develop a practical action plan to increase resilience. • A series of case studies on Nestle, Greencore, North Somerset and Lostwithiel flooding, health impacts, use of the SHAPE tool, and how Kent, Newcastle, Hull, Bristol, and East Sussex councils and the Greater London Authority are adapting to • Qualifications in business resilience. • Support for local councils through the Climate Local initiative, with associated • Information on future flows and groundwater levels. • Information on resilient growth for local economic growth investment and a review of good practice for Local Enterprise Partnerships. • Natural England and the RSPB, in partnership with the Environment Agency’s climate ready support service and the Forestry Commission published the ‘Climate change adaptation evidence to support nature conservation in a changing climate’ to support conservation practitioners in adapting to climate change. The Climate Change Act enables UK government to direct relevant organisations, such as public bodies and infrastructure providers, to report on the progress being made in adapting to climate change. Since the Climate Change Act 2008 entered into force the adaptation reporting process has been through two cycles. First, in 2009, reporting focused on major infrastructure providers from the energy, transport and water sectors and 91 organisations were directed to report with a number of other organisations also invited to report. Statutory guidance was published to guide reporting organisations on the content of their submissions and a formal evaluation of reports was carried out. In total, 105 organisations took part. Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 199 The second cycle of adaptation reporting started in 2013, taking a voluntary, light touch and flexible approach to reporting, which was supported by stakeholders who responded to the consultation. This, contrary to the first cycle of reporting, was a ‘bottom-up’ approach and no formal guidance was offered to reporting organisations. In total, 86 organisations took part. Evaluation of both reporting rounds found that the reporting process made a significant contribution to driving adaptation. It helped organisations identify and appreciate climate risks to services, assets, and functions, thereby supporting the creation of programmes of activity to improve their understanding of risk. Reporting was considered important in driving the planning of adaptation work and in gaining organisational, senior level and external engagement. It also gave legitimacy to climate adaptation issues within sectors and demonstrated action/resilience to stakeholders. It provided a catalyst for discussion and, ultimately, action on climate change. The reports were considered a useful communication tool to gain strategic buy-in and presented opportunities for partnership and sector engagement. Reporting gave coherence to policy frameworks across different areas and assisted the mapping of new policy proposals, such as in the financial sector. It also demonstrated that organisations were already adapting to climate change and mitigating their specific climate change risks. Some sectors were particularly advanced and were running their own research programmes on adaptation.
5.4.3 Natural environment and biodiversity As with climate change, the protection of biodiversity and the natural environment is a devolved matter in the UK. Each of the four countries of the UK has developed plans or strategies for implementing the UK’s commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity. These commitments include taking action for species and habitats as well us for protecting and enhancing the ‘services’ or benefits we gain from our natural world such as food, clean water, clean air, improved health and wellbeing. UK action is coordinated through the UK Biodiversity Framework and the UK Marine Strategy. In England, the UK Government is committed to publishing a 25 year environment plan. The Plan will set out the Government’s vision for cleaner air and water, richer habitats for more wildlife and an approach to agriculture and land use which puts the environment first. The UK government approach to conserving and enhancing biodiversity in England is set out in Biodiversity 2020, our strategy for England’s Wildlife and Ecosystem Services and is supplemented by our National Pollinator Strategy. Marine biodiversity is conserved and enhanced through the UK Marine Strategy. For biodiversity on land, we have two main approaches to strengthening resilience to climate change, alongside strengthening of the evidence base. First, we are taking action to reduce wildlife’s vulnerability to climate change by protecting, managing, restoring and creating priority habitats. We do this primarily through the designation and management of protected sites on land and at sea, through our agri-environment schemes, or by supporting voluntary action. Second, we are taking action to reduce other sources of pressure on our priority species and habitats such as water quality or air quality. There has been progress with protecting and enhancing important wildlife habitats. For example, the total extent of land and sea protected in England through national and international protected areas increased from 1.2 million to 2.3 million hectares between 1999 and 2016;

200 7th National Communication an increase of 94%, the bulk of which has been through designation at sea with the area of protected marine sites within the 12 nautical mile limit increasing from 295,000 to over 1.3 million hectares between 2011 and 2017 (based on data up to the end of 2016)154. On land and in our freshwaters we have continued to take action to put the right management in place on over 1 million hectares of protected sites to restore and maintain their condition or value for wildlife. Across the country there has been an overall increase of around 5,000 hectares of SSSIs achieving ‘favourable’ condition in the year between April 2016 and April 2017 . Various policies are already in place to address climate risks to natural capital. For example, increased efforts to restore the hydrology of wetland habitats are under way as part of Countryside Stewardship, and the Forestry Commission is working to protect, improve and expand woodlands The UK government has undertaken investigations into the impacts of climate change on plant health and the potential for climate change to increase the risk from pests. This work will lead to improvements in our risk assessments to ensure that we target the pests and diseases that The UK Plant Health Risk Register, accessible through the new UK Plant Health Information compares risks posed by different plant pests and pathogens and prioritises actions. We carry out collaborative horizon-scanning and information-sharing activities with international organisations, such as the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation, to provide early warning of new pest threats. The approach in the marine environment has been to improve its resilience by reducing pressures from human activities, for example moving towards fishing mortality maximum sustainable yield (FMSY) and setting up marine protected areas. We have already made considerable progress towards sustainable fishing. For 2017 , 29 stocks that are of interest to the UK and that are maximum sustainable yield (MSY) assessed will be fished at or below their MSY compared to 25 in 2016. Over the same period the number of stocks with full analytical MSY assessments has also increased, from 35 to 45. The Scottish Biodiversity 2020 Challenge for Scotland’s Biodiversity recognises the need to help nature adapt to climate change, for example through reducing pressures on ecosystems, habitats and species, and making space for natural processes. Ecosystem restoration priorities include peatlands, coastal sand dunes, native woodlands and establishment of saltmarsh to improve resilience to climate change. The Route Map to 2020 sets out large-scale, cooperative actions that will improve ecosystem health so helping nature to adapt to climate change. Progress will be reported to the Scottish Parliament in 2017 . Future priorities for action will take account of biodiversity pressures including climate change. Scotland’s Climate Change Plan committed to supporting 10,000 hectares of restoration rising to 20,000 hectares pa in future years, which will be supported by a monitoring strategy which will ensure that restoration delivery is monitored, recorded and reported. The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 puts in place the legislation needed to plan and manage Wales’ natural resources in a more proactive, sustainable and joined-up way. It delivers against 154 Note that this areas is increasing rapidly in the marine environment, and is likely to have increased significantly since this latest statistical publication. The area designated in UK waters, beyond the 12 mile limit is significantly higher. UK figures are published

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 201 our Programme for Government commitment to introduce new legislation for the environment. This positions Wales as a low carbon, green economy, ready to adapt to the impacts of climate It will mean significant economic, social and environmental benefits for Wales. It has been carefully designed to support and complement our work to help secure Wales’ long-term well- being, so that current and future generations benefit from a prosperous economy, a healthy and resilient environment and vibrant, cohesive communities.
Part 1 of the Act addresses the sustainable management of natural resources, focussing on enabling Wales’ resources to be managed in a more proactive, sustainable and joined-up way. It also helps to tackle the challenges we face, including climate change, and is focused on the opportunities our resources 5.4.4 Agriculture and Forestry The NAP identifies effective water management, including both availability and quality, as a major aspect of increasing climate resilience in the UK agricultural sector. Following formal consultation in January 2016 Government published a range of approaches to address the challenges of climate change, population growth and which will better protect the environment. We are now preparing to launch a water abstraction plan in 2017 , explaining how reform will be implemented over the coming years. The Water Abstraction plan outlines three main approaches to address existing issues. We intend to make full use of existing regulatory powers and tools to address unsustainable abstraction and meet environmental objectives. A stronger catchment focus that brings together the Environment Agency, abstractors and catchment partnerships to develop local solutions that address current pressures and prepare for the future will be at the heart. These local solutions will protect the environment by changing licences to better reflect water availability in catchments and reduce the impact of abstraction. Access to water for abstractors will also be improved by introducing more flexible conditions that support water storage and water trading. To support these reforms we will modernise the abstraction service, ensuring all significant abstraction is regulated through the removal of exemptions and bringing regulations in line with other environmental permitting regimes. Defra invests over £1M per year on breeding programmes to undertake targeted genetic improvement in livestock and major UK crops. These programmes are specifically designed to improve resource use efficiency, enhance sustainability and build resilience to biotic and abiotic Beyond water management, Defra invests over £1M per year on breeding programmes to undertake targeted genetic improvement in livestock and major UK crops. These programmes are specifically designed to improve resource use efficiency, enhance sustainability and build resilience to biotic and abiotic stresses. The Sustainable Intensification Research Platform (SIP , launched in 2014) aims to provide robust evidence to inform the farming industry’s drive for sustainable intensification. The three SIP’s linked and transdisciplinary research projects 1. Integrated Farm Management for improved economic, environmental and social performance, 2. Opportunities and risks for farming and the environment at landscape scales, and 3. A scoping study on ‘The influence of external drivers and actors on the sustainability and productivity of English and Welsh farming’. 202 7th National Communication The Rural Development Programme for England 2014-2020 embeds climate resilience, whereas the Payments for Ecosystem Services provides a means of rewarding farmers for delivering important services, including adaptation measures, which benefit wider society. Other activities include the UK Agri-tech strategy (launched in 2013). Agri-tech strategy investments include research and knowledge exchange in crop and livestock genomic, agri- engineering, genetics, health in crops and livestock and energy generation from waste, amongst Forestry research and international policy are reserved issues while domestic forestry policy is devolved to country administrations. The UK Forestry Standard was revised in 2017 and underpins forestry incentives (including for woodland creation), regulations and management planning and its Forests and Climate Change Guidelines include requirements that aim to promote climate • When selecting trees and shrubs for new woodlands and restocking, consider the risks and opportunities of climate change and vulnerability to pests and diseases for particular species to decide if alternative species or increased species diversity are • Plan for forest resilience using a variety of ages, species and stand structure; consider the risks to the forest from wind, fire, and pest and disease outbreaks. • Review forest rotation lengths in response to changing productivity and wind risks, and review planting seasons in response to changing conditions and establishment • Review species suitability and diversity over time as forest management plans are • Where timber production is an important objective, consider a wider range of tree species than has been typical of past planting, and consider the use of planting material from more southerly origins. Consider suitability under both current climate and 2050s High emissions projections inform the choice. In 2015 the Forestry Sector Climate Change Working Group published a survey in complying with the adaptation measures in the UK Forestry Standard’s Forests and Climate Change Guideline, alongside a Climate Change Accord 156, and the Forestry Climate Change Working Group (FCCWG) aims to publish an Action Plan for Forestry and Climate Change Government continues to advocate and support woodland expansion with objectives including increased resilience of the woodland resource and, through strategic targeting, helping society to adapt to the impacts of climate change. In England, Rural Development Programme woodland creation grants have supported the planting of 7 ,400 hectares of new woodland during the past five years. The Woodland Creation Planning Grant and Woodland Carbon Fund have also been introduced to support the planting of large scale, productive woodlands. There is currently an active programme (advocacy and grant support) to increase the level of management in England’s woodlands, particularly broadleaf woodland, providing opportunities 155 156

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 203 for adaptation measures to be implemented. The percentage of woodland in active management increased from 53% at 31st March 2013 to 58% at 31st March 2017 . The long-term target for woodland in active management (80%) will be reviewed in 2018. The Science and Innovation Strategy for Forestry in Great Britain was reviewed and revised in 2014, with three of the research programmes providing a focus on resilience. The Forestry Commission reviewed its Adaptation Reporting Power report157 in 2016, including the Climate Change Action Plan for the Public Forest Estate and identified three key risks to be addressed over the next five lack of species diversity, low level of woodland management The Forestry Act (Northern Ireland) 2010 promotes afforestation and sustainable forestry.
Its accompanying Delivery Plan sets out a range of activities that raise awareness of the potential impact of climate change on forests and the role of forestry in adaptation. In Scotland, the Scottish Forestry Strategy (2006)23 identifies climate change as one of its seven key themes. The theme’s primary purpose in relation to adaptation is to ensure that Scotland’s woodlands and the forestry sector meet their full potential in facilitating ecological, economic and social adaptation to climate change. It sets out three key Improve understanding of climate change impacts on woodland ecosystems and silviculture, and implement precautionary measures, such as forest habitat network creation. • Maintain preventative measures and ensure readiness for pests, diseases and other threats, such as fire and wind. • Increase the role of forestry in environmental protection including sustainable flood and catchment management, and soil protection. • Early in 2013 Forestry Commission Scotland published a Climate Change The programme describes climate change predictions for Scotland, it explains what Forestry Commission Scotland will do to increase the contribution of forestry to Scotland’s climate change response, and focuses on what needs to be done both as early actions and to increase future preparedness. The focus for adaptation is • Plan and manage forests and woodlands in a way that minimises future risks from climate change, for example through the creation of forest habitat networks, and using different timber species, including hardwoods, or silvicultural systems. • Assist in environmental protection such as helping to tackle slope instability, reducing riverbank erosion, contributing to natural flood management and increasing the contribution of trees and woodland to climate control in urban areas. In order to ensure that forest management planning supports resilience-building in Scotland’s forests, Forestry Commission Scotland developed RESILIENT FORESTS, web-based resources for forest managers to raise their awareness to climate risks and opportunities. A variety of demonstration actions and adaptive management approaches are also being developed at the Scottish Research Forest at Queen Elizabeth Forest Park. Forestry Commission Scotland latest actions 157

204 7th National Communication • The launch of a stand-alone Forestry Grant Scheme, as part of Scotland’s Rural Development Programme, in 2015. The scheme contributes towards the Scottish Government target of 10,000 hectares of new woodlands per year; and the sustainable management of existing woodlands and includes funding for new woodland creation and the management of existing forests. • The revision of the UK Forestry Standard and the associated Climate Change Guidelines that sets out legal and good practice requirements on dealing with both risks and opportunities presented by climate change. • Ongoing funding for tree health research and collaborative action. • New guidance for forest management on how to prepare long-term forest plans. • The launch of work to improve the condition and connectivity of native woodlands, for new native woodland planting, bracken control and protection with fencing. Forestry and Woodland Strategies aim to encourage a move towards planning and managing well-structured and diverse forests that can better withstand change and extreme events. Forestry and Woodland Strategies are updated by local authorities in order to reflect current National and local forestry policy. Climate Change considerations therefore need to be considered when developing Forest Plans and Woodland Creation projects. In addition we promote the benefits of habitat connectivity and habitat networks, including integrating forest and open habitat networks for biodiversity. In priority native woodland habitats FCS continues to promote actions to facilitate adaptation including encouraging natural regeneration, increasing native woodland creation and developing forest habitat networks. FCS also work to halt the loss and fragmentation of existing priority habitats. FCS continues to support research, trials and demonstration sites to identify appropriate species and provenance choices which take account of projected changes in climate. In Wales, responding to climate change is one of the key themes in the forestry strategy, Woodlands for Wales.25 This aims to increase the diversity (species, structure and genetics) of woodlands in Wales to make them more resilient to pests, diseases and drought. It also recognises that trees and the products they produce can be a way of reducing the effects of, and risks resulting from, climate change. Trees also provide shade and can be beneficial in reducing the effects of climate change in urban and rural areas. The accompanying Action Plan, which runs to 2020, includes action for the creation of new woodland in Wales by 2030 which will achieve multiple objectives such as mitigating the impacts of climate change, by locking up carbon emissions and reducing run-off after heavy rain. 5.4.5 Healthy and resilient communities The CCRA Evidence Report (2017) states that increasing temperatures, rising sea levels and modified rainfall patterns will change the climate-related risks in the UK. Climate Change will create new challenges for those working in planning, community development, the health and social care system, flood and water management, and emergency preparedness. Flooding and extreme hot weather pose the highest magnitude risks and the greatest need for action in the next five years. There are some potential benefits from reduced cold and opportunities from The health sector including the Department of Health, Public Health England, NHS England, the Sustainable Development Unit and local partners responsible for the delivery of health and social

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 205 care play key roles in addressing the health risks associated with climate change, for example, through the implementation of the Heatwave Plan and Cold Weather Plan for England and the promotion of adaptation within wider Sustainable Development Management Plans. Public Health England publishes the Heatwave Plan for England to manage the risks of hot weather to public health. This is a key component of emergency planning that provides advice for professionals, organisations and individuals to enable them to plan for and respond to hot weather. Both the Heatwave and Cold Weather Plans for England are accompanied by public and professional supporting material and resources (e.g. a checklist for identifying and managing overheating in care homes). The Cold Weather Plan for England was independently evaluated in 2012-13.
An evaluation of the Heatwave Plan for England is currently underway and Local risk assessments overseen by the local health and wellbeing boards across England provide an important vehicle to highlight climate risks to health, for example the mental health impacts of flooding or the risks from overheating. The UK has a proven system in place for monitoring international disease threats to human and animal health. As an example, Public Health England undertakes invasive mosquito surveillance with 30 seaports and airports and at key goods importers and motorway service stations leading away from ports of entry in south-east England. Work is undertaken collaboratively with industry to assess and manage pest risk, such as on Bluetongue disease and the Schmallenberg virus. An international forward look also improves forecasting of outbreaks by seeking to identify links between meteorological data and geophysical impacts, and public and Public Health England also has a role in providing advice and guidance on the building of healthy sustainable housing, neighbourhoods and communities, which can contribute both to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. This includes working with other government departments, for example in influencing the National Planning Policy Framework and the 25 Year Environment Plan to achieve health and climate change co-benefits and providing guidance for planners and developers through the Spatial Planning for Health guidance as well as joint work with the Town and Country Planning Association. In addition PHE is supporting the NHS Healthy New Towns programme, which is working with 10 sites across the country to explore how sustainable and healthier development principles can be embedded into an area from the outset and how these can contribute, not only to improve the health outcomes of the community, but In Wales a Climate Change and Health Working Group was established in autumn 2007 to consider the health effects and risks of climate change. In 2009 the Working Group produced a publication “Tackling the health effects of climate an adaptation action plan”, which provided the health input to the Welsh government’s Climate Change Strategy for Wales. It recognises that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health and well- being, and details adaptation priorities and objectives for action to ensure efficient and robust measures are in place to deal • Weather related impacts (such as heatwaves, flooding etc. ); • The potential increase of foodborne related illnesses; • Ensuring the continued safety of drinking and recreational bathing waters; • Potential threats from new infectious diseases;

206 7th National Communication • Ensuring NHS healthcare facilities remain resilient. One of the key priorities in the Health Adaptation Action Plan was the development of a Heatwave Plan for Wales in the summer of 2009. Using funding from the National Centre for Resilience, Scottish Government has commissioned Health Protection Scotland to conduct a study into the link (or absence thereof) between hot and cold ambient temperature and mortality and morbidity. This will enable the design of evidence based interventions in response to extreme weather events related to climate change. SG are also working with HPS to scope proportionate research into the climate change related risks to public health from vector borne disease. Scotland has a strong focus on healthy and resilient communities and within this policy agenda, domestic climate justice, because climate change impacts most severely on poor people and vulnerable communities. The report Mapping Flood Disadvantage in Scotland 2015 assesses social vulnerability for the key risk of flooding to help people working in flood risk management, resilience, emergency services, public health, social care, housing, and the environment. The National Flood and Coastal Risk Management Strategy for England provides an overaching framework for future action by all risk management authorities to tackle flooding and coastal erosion in England, within which communities have a greater role in local risk management . It includes long-term planning, avoidance of inappropriate development in high risk areas, improved flood management infrastructure, increased public awareness, and improved Under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFAs) have responsibility for local flood risk management ensuring flooding from local sources, which includes surface run-off, is identified and managed as part of a local flood risk management strategy. LLFAs have to consult the public and other Risk Management Authorities (RMAs) in their area on the strategy. The strategy must for example include an assessment of the local risk, the objectives for managing the risk, and the measures proposed to achieve the objectives. In addition to managing local sources of flood risk effectively LLFAs have to work in partnership with other RMAs and have the flexibility to form informal partnerships. The act also requires RMAs to co-operate and exchange information. The UK’s flood risk investment programme is driving down the overall risk of flooding and coastal erosion to ensure that we will better protect over 300,000 homes from flooding by 2021. Investments are based on a well-developed national flood risk assessment and long-term investment scenario modelling developed by the Environment Agency, which already factors in climate change predictions and continually evolves to take account of new climate change evidence and risks. The long-term investment scenario modelling considers differing investment scenarios in the face of pressures such as climate change and asset deterioration and takes into account total levels of investment, not just government investment. The National Flood Resilience Review was published in September 2016 and sets out actions to improve our readiness for flooding in the short term, to reduce the impacts and the consequent costs and disruption to communities, businesses and our economy. This includes working with infrastructure operators to improve the resilience of locally important assets at risk of flooding. It also set out a new stress test of the risk of flooding from rivers and the sea in England so that for the first time, Met Office forecasts of extreme rainfall scenarios have been linked with EA modelling to provide a new assessment of flood risk.
The review is also informing our consideration of long-term investment needs and funding options..

Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 207 Climate change means Wales faces an increased risk of flooding, not only through sea level rise but also from all sources of flooding, particularly due to more frequent and intense storms. Flood and coastal risk management remains a priority for the Welsh Government. During 2017/18 we will be investing over £54 million across Wales. The 4 year capital funding allocation for flood risk management will allow us to plan more effectively, providing certainty of funding Wales are planning for future coastal risk by working alongside local authorities to develop a programme of capital investment in coastal risk management commencing in 2018/19. The Coastal Risk Management Programme provides the opportunity for local authorities to invest up to £150 million in the coastal infrastructure protecting our coastal communities, adapting to the challenge of climate change and sea level rise and achieving wider benefits. Work across government departments includes regeneration and tourism to achieve wider wellbeing goals through the schemes. £5 million funding has been allocated to continue the preparatory work in Wales are currently reviewing the National Strategy for Flood and Coastal Risk Management with an update planned for 2017/18. This provides an opportunity to set out longer-term objectives and underline the approach to managing risk. In carrying out this review we will be working alongside risk management authorities as well as other government departments. A new Development Advice Map, aligned with the NRW Flood Map was launched in spring 2017 providing a single site for all flood risk mapping advice to public, developers and local The Welsh Government publishes climate change adaption guidance for use by Risk Management Authorities when developing Flood Risk Management Schemes and Strategies. The current guidance note will be refreshed in 2017 to ensure that it aligns with corresponding Planning guidance and reflects the most up to date assessment of UKCP09 data. In Scotland, the National Flood Risk Assessment published in December 2011 provided the first national picture of flood risk across Scotland. It represents a key milestone towards Scotland being able to target efforts to plan and invest in reducing impacts in areas most vulnerable to The first set of Scotland’s flood risk strategies based on the National Flood Risk Assessment were published in December 2015. The second National Flood Risk Assessment is being developed and will be published in 2018. Guidance supporting the building standards in Scotland now increases the resilience of new buildings to the possible effects of climate change • Referring to the Scottish Environment Protection Agency flood risk maps; • More control of surface water at source; • Encouraging the use of greywater recycling; • Emphasising flood risk assessments and flood design strategy; • Providing information on flood resilient construction. This means that the capacity to adapt to changes in climate is considered in more detail during the building design and construction process. 208 7th National Communication Infrastructure operators are vulnerable to a range of climate impacts, as set out in the CCRA and outlined from recent weather events, such as the National Flood Resilience review of events following the storms and floods of 2015-2016, and the Transport Resilience Review following the The National Risk Assessment (NRA) and Sector Resilience Plans (SRPs) identify key risks and vulnerabilities facing our Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). Climate Change is addressed as part of these processes, as a key driver of some of the risks. A number of different mechanisms are in place to assess and address risks and implications from climate change, from price review processes overseen by the regulators to Sector Security Resilience Plans. The Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) also plays a role in helping reporting organisations understand and take action to address climate related risks. The National Risk Assessment and Sector Resilience Plans should contribute to proportionate approaches to increasing resilience over time. Reporting under the Adaptation Reporting Power should make transparent the actions economically regulated sectors are taking towards this goal. Nationally significant infrastructure projects (NSIPs) are consented through the nationally significant infrastructure regime. Planning policies for NSIPs are set out in National Policy Statements, which includes policies on adapting to climate change, and are informed by an appraisal of sustainability. Where National Policy Statements have a spatial element, for example on Nuclear Power and Waste Water Treatment these spatial choices are strongly influenced by climate change considerations and, as with other national policy statements, are subject to Strategic Environmental Assessment as part of the appraisal of sustainability. Cumulative environmental impacts are considered as part of the appraisal of sustainability and environment impact assessment of individual projects. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report sets out how climate change combined with population growth may put greater pressure on water availability. By the 2050s, many catchments across the UK will need to manage water deficits and competing demands for water for public supply, industry, agriculture and the environment. The Evidence Report recognises that the policy framework for managing these long-term risks is in place. In 2016 the Government published “Enabling resilience in the water sector”, our policy framework to meet the demands of climate change and a growing population on the water sector. It sets out plans to enhance resilience in the sector. In March 2017 , the Government announced that a national policy statement for water resources will be developed. This will support the timely delivery of large water resources infrastructure, including reservoirs and water transfers, which are expected to be required alongside demand management, to ensure future resilience in the sector. The need for these schemes is identified in water companies water Water companies are required to prepare statutory plans to ensure a secure supply of water. This includes long-term (25 years at least) strategic water resources management plans and tactical drought plans. Water companies must update their plans at least every five years.
The plans must take account of the latest evidence on the impacts pressures such as climate change will have the supply and demand of water in the future. The Water Strategy for Wales sets out our strategic direction for water policy over the next 20 years and beyond. Water is one of our greatest natural assets and an integral part of Wales’ culture, heritage and national identity. Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 209 The strategy highlights the Welsh Government’s vision to ensure that Wales continues to have a thriving water environment which is sustainably managed to support healthy communities, flourishing businesses and the environment. We want the people of Wales to receive first class, value for money, water services with water used efficiently, safely and respectfully by all. In recent years the impact on water quality of land management practices in rural and urban areas in Wales has become increasingly apparent. As well as these factors, the strategy will also take account of anticipated population growth, improved living standards (accompanied by increased water use) and the predicted impacts of climate change. The Water Resources (Scotland) Act 2013, places a duty on Scottish Ministers to develop the value of Scotland’s water resources. It updated legislation to enable more proactive management of water catchments, and modernised the framework for dealing with water In March 2016, the Northern Irish Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs launched Sustainable Water – A Long Term Water Strategy for Northern Ireland (2015-2040). This cross-Departmental strategy contains a long-term vision to manage flood risk and drainage in a sustainable manner, which will help to address the future risks from climate change The impacts of climate change and severe weather conditions will vary from location to location and are thus often most effectively managed at a local level. Local authorities are key partners in delivering many aspects of the National Adaptation Programme. They are responsible for a significant number of risks and areas relating to climate change including flood management, civil contingencies and planning. Local government responsibilities should be considered in the context of the Localism Act 2011 and the Cities and Local Government Devolution Act 2016 which gives local government functions, freedoms and flexibilities as well as responsibilities and governance. UK government engages on adaptation with local government, including the availability of tools and guidance, via different forums, or groups such as the Local Adaptation Advisory Panel, the Core Cities group and the Local Government Association. Online tools and best practice for councils are available through the sites of delivery agents, such as Climate UK/London Climate Change Partnership, to enable councils to improve and develop their ability to adapt to climate change. For instance, there is a template business case Planning policy and legislation already sets a clear expectation that local planning authorities will take account of climate change and seek to mitigate and adapt to its impacts. There is a statutory requirement under section 19(1A) of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 for local planning authorities to include policies in their local plan designed to contribute to the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The National Planning Policy Framework sets out how, through both local plan-making and decision taking, planning authorities should support the transition to a low carbon future in a changing climate and minimise vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. These are considerations when a local plan is examined and before it can be adopted. Once adopted, the local plan provides the primary basis (subject to other material planning considerations) for planning decisions in the local authority’s area. Beyond this in England, there is still an ongoing and wider (voluntary) area of collaboration at a local and sub-national level. The Core Cities collaborate, share best practice and support each other to further action on adaptation via the Core Cities group. Officer level efforts on adaptation

210 7th National Communication feeds up via policy hubs into wider Core City action and influence as well as supporting areas around adaptation such as risk and vulnerability assessment and direct adaptive measures. This complements and adds to the spatial planning work above. This is also linked more widely with the wider local government ask and offer around adaptation via the Local Adaptation Advisory Panel which directly links with and reports up to and central government via Defra as lead department. Through this way a wider picture of the landscape and activity is understood and will influence the ambition and content of things like the next NAP . However, in the absence of a more formal reporting arrangement as exists for the devolved administrations outlined below, this is scaled to reflect the available resource. In Wales, specific environmental grants are provided to local authorities for delivery against Ministerial priorities and multiple benefits in support of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. Local Authorities are required to submit a detailed spending proposal annually, clearly outlining how their proposals align to these goals. Local Authorities are each issued with a formula based grant allocation and they are able to use this funding to deliver against the key priorities of the • Better Management of our Natural Resources, including Biodiversity and Floods • Waste and Resource Efficiency Local Authorities are key partners in the Public Service Boards (PSBs), which are required to consider climate change in their assessment of local well-being. Local authorities in Wales are also designated as key reporting authorities under the Climate Change Act 2008 and as such must have regard for the Welsh government’s Preparing for a Changing Climate statutory guidance which helps organisations in Wales to assess, prepare and act on risks from a changing climate. The Climate Ready Clyde Partnership is a collaborative partnership initiative aimed at developing a regional structure for adapting to climate change, to accelerate work on adaptation within the Glasgow City Region.
10 partners from the City Region, comprising 6 local Councils, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, SPT, University of Glasgow and University of Strathclyde have formally agreed to pool their resources, alongside Scottish Government, to fund a regional secretariat, delivered by Sniffer. The secretariat will assess the risks and opportunities presented by climate change, and work with partners to develop a strategy and action plan for the City Region. The Scottish Government provided £100,000 seed funding to get Climate Ready Clyde up and running and has enabled the City Region to be a demonstrator for research, with £4.5m of NERC-funded research being undertaken on climate adaptation as a result. Climate ready Clyde was formally launched at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in June 2017 , as a transformative initiative showing that collaboration helps to improve resilience and adaptation to a changing climate brings many other positive benefits - boosting local economies, reducing inequalities, improving public realm, protecting natural resources and attracting investment. It is hoped now that the Partnership’s work will make a significant contribution towards securing the long term climate resilience of a third of Scotland’s population and a city region that generates £40Bn GVA per year - a third of Scotland’s economic wealth. Going forward, the area-based approach will link into resilience initiatives in neighbouring parts of Scotland, and will be able to be extended across other regions of Scotland. Chapter 5 – Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 211 5.4.10 international cooperation on adaptation Part 6 of this seventh national communication sets out how the UK is helping developing countries manage risk and build resilience to the impacts of climate change and builds on the progress reported in part 5.7 of the UK’s sixth national communication. We also work closely with the European Union and its Member States on adaptation as detailed in part 5.7 of the sixth national communication. This work has continued since the previous communication through contributions to assessments and the sharing of best practice, in particular through Climate Adapt, the European climate adaptation platform. We continue to work to ensure that adaptation is integrated within European policies and programmes relating to vulnerable sectors. Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and • Building on the provision of £3.87 billion in International Climate Finance (ICF) between 2011/12-2015/16, the UK has committed to further scale up climate finance to at least £5.8 billion between 2016/17-2020/21158. The UK’s ICF helps developing countries mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, reduce deforestation and pursue clean economic growth. The ICF is focussed on transformational change, reflecting the scale of the challenge of climate change. This includes unlocking the potential of the private sector, with UK ICF funding mobilising £500 million in private • Since 2011, the UK has used its ICF to install more than 400 megawatts of clean energy capacity and to reduce or avoid 9.2m tonnes of CO will continue to grow as new and ambitious programmes like the £177 .5 million Sustainable Infrastructure Programme are delivered. The UK continues to apply and share lessons learned from its extensive ICF monitoring & evaluation framework, improving effectiveness and enhancing transparency. • Recognising that adaptation is a priority for many developing countries, the UK aims to spend half of its climate finance on adaptation, and achieved this aim in 2016. Since 2013, the UK has provided over £1.4 billion to in climate finance for adaptation. To date, the UK’s ICF has supported more than 34 million people adapt to the impacts of • The UK is committed to an effective international climate finance architecture, and has been one of the largest contributors to major multilateral climate funds like the Green Climate Fund (£720 million) and the Climate Investment Funds (£2 billion). The UK has also supported multilateral development bank ambition as they scale up their activities towards their 2020 climate finance pledges. • The UK has supported international knowledge generating organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and has committed to global initiatives aimed at accelerating clean energy like Mission Innovation. 158 financial years 2011/12 to 2014/15

214 7th National Communication • In 2015, the UK, Germany and Norway (GNU) announced that they would provide up to $5bn between 2015 and 2020 in finance to tackle deforestation, subject to ambitious and high quality proposals. • Through its ICF and other international action, the UK is continuing to scale up support towards the shared developed country goal of jointly mobilising $100 billion per year in climate finance in developing countries from a range of sources by 2020. Beyond this, the UK is focussed on helping developing countries put in place the conditions to align finance flows with low greenhouse gas and climate resilient development, including by creating the right conditions to unlock green investment for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and by phasing out the most polluting activities. Climate change is a global challenge requiring action from all countries. The UK has played a key role in demonstrating international leadership in reducing its own emissions and supporting other countries to do the same. In this chapter, we discuss the support and financial assistance that the UK provides to developing countries, where climate change represents the biggest challenge to long-term global poverty reduction, to help avert the worst outcomes of climate change and increase the resilience of the most vulnerable countries to a changing climate.
The remainder of the chapter is structured as • An overview of the types of climate finance provided by the UK, centred around its International Climate Finance (ICF); • How climate finance has been allocated since the UK’s Sixth National Communication, including adaptation and mitigation and with detailed examples of programming in UK priority areas of forestry, private finance and carbon markets; • How the UK is acting to promote, facilitate and transfer technology to developing • Other actions the UK is taking to help developing countries access finance, attract investment and align finance flows with low greenhouse gas and climate-resilient • How the ICF is using its monitoring & evaluation framework to apply lessons learned 6.3 Overview of UK Support and Channels The UK is among the largest contributors of public climate finance and is committed to providing support which is transparent, transformative and in line with the needs and priorities of developing countries. UK climate finance builds on a tradition of UK leadership in providing support to developing countries. Building on the provision of £3.87 billion in International Climate Finance (ICF) between 2011/12- 2015/16, the UK has committed to further scale up climate finance to at least £5.8 billion between 2016/17-2020/21. This represents a new, dedicated climate commitment which is additional to historic (ODA) levels and has not diverted funds from existing development spending. UK Official Development Assistance has consistently risen over time, from £7 .3 billion in 2009 to £13.4 billion in 2016. Whilst the UK remains committed to promoting climate smart development across the aid portfolio, consistent with the Global Goals and an essential condition for driving sustainable development and effective climate action, we have put in place a dedicated ring-fence to ensure our climate finance is identifiable from non-climate ODA. Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 215 The UK remains committed to promoting climate smart development across the aid portfolio, consistent with the Global Goals and an essential condition for driving sustainable development A key objective of UK climate finance is to improve the effectiveness of the international climate finance architecture, including by building in-country support and enhancing country ownership for low carbon climate-resilient development. The UK has an extensive network of officials based in developing countries working for the Department for International Development (DFID) and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). This ensures close relationships with governments and key organisations in these countries and the development of bilateral programmes based on developing country needs. The UK also provides support through multilateral funds and multilateral development banks. The UK continues to encourage and support the use of these funds in response to projects and plans driven by the needs of developing countries and in line with nationally determined comprehensive plans. The UK is firmly committed to the joint developed country agreement to mobilise $100 billion of climate finance a year from a variety of sources by 2020. At COP21 in Paris, developed countries were asked to produce a ‘concrete roadmap’ to show how they would achieve this goal. The UK and Australia, working with other developed countries, produced this Roadmap and presented it at COP22 in Marrakech. The Roadmap indicated that based on current pledges, and building on the estimated level of $62 billion in climate finance mobilised in 2014, the $100 billion goal could be achieved with a modest increase in the rate of mobilisation of private finance. The UK continues to work with its international partners to implement the actions outlined in the Roadmap and make progress towards the goal, in line with developing country Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a broad shift in finance flows to align the global economy with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas and climate resilient development. This transformational goal provides the basis for the UK’s approach to climate finance, and the UK acts through a number of bilateral and multilateral channels to ensure that support helps to build capacity and nurture lasting change, for instance through engagement of private investors. 6.3.1 The UK’s International Climate Finance (ICF) Recognising the growing importance and urgency of tackling climate change and its impact on growth and poverty reduction, the UK invested £3.87 billion in International Climate Finance (ICF) from 2011-2016 (financial years 2011/12 to 2014/15). The UK has committed to provide at least a further £5.8 billion from 2016-2020 (financial years 2015/16 to 2020/21), with a commitment to achieve a 50:50 balance between mitigation and adaptation over this period. This will lead to a doubling in UK climate finance in 2020, relative to 2014. This commitment reflects our view that climate change is the biggest threat to the long-term eradication of global poverty, and that the impacts of climate change will hit the poorest hardest. The UK’s ICF is supporting a portfolio of investments managed by the Department for International Development (DFID), Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). It aims to support international poverty eradication now and in the future by helping developing countries manage risk and build resilience to the impacts of climate change, take up low-carbon development at scale, and manage natural resources sustainably. To achieve this, UK ICF delivers transformational change through well-targeted finance which, for example, helps to pay the incremental cost of making infrastructure investments climate- smart and avoid lock-in of high carbon technologies. It also incentivises countries to reduce

216 7th National Communication deforestation and promote sustainable land use.
This demonstrates that low-carbon, climate- resilient development paths are viable and compatible with economic growth and poverty Cumulative data that we collect show that, between 2011/12 and 2016/17 , UK ICF programmes • Supported 34 million people to cope with the effects of climate change; • Provided 12 million people with improved access to clean energy; • Reduced or avoided 9.2 million tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (tCO2e); • Installed more than 400 MW of clean energy capacity; and • Mobilised £2.2 billion public and £500 million private finance for climate change purposes in developing countries. Public finance alone cannot bring about the transformation required to achieve the overarching goals of the Paris Agreement for climate resilience and staying below 2°C. The UK is committed to working alongside the private sector to promote the transformation necessary to align finance flows globally with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and its network of Posts around the world have advocated for a high ambition response to the collective challenge of limiting climate change during the reporting period. The partnerships that have been created between the UK and other countries have benefited from practical co-operation projects funded by the FCO Prosperity Fund, and the energy/low carbon work stream of its successor, the Cross Whitehall Prosperity Fund, launched in 2015. Programmes have focused on promoting reforms to energy markets drawing upon the UK’s world-leading expertise on policy frameworks, energy system optimisation, promotion of renewable energy, roll out of smart technologies, and building a green finance industry to accelerate the transition to low carbon growth. Multi-year programmes worth up to £120 million under the new Cross Government Prosperity Fund will be designed in close co-operation with South East Asia, China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, and will be launched in 6.3.3 The Global Challenge Research Fund and the Newton Fund The Global Challenges Research Fund and the Newton Fund leverage the internationally recognised strength of the UK’s research base, ensuring that UK science takes a leading role in promoting research and innovation to address development challenges, including flooding and famine caused by climate change, environmental degradation and the development of low carbon energy. The funds play a critical role in advancing development for the poorest people and countries, promoting long term sustainable growth. This forms part of the UK’s wider approach to research which is outlined in more detail in Chapter 7 Research and Systematic Observations. 159 2017 UK Climate Finance

Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 217 6.3.4 Contributions to Multilateral Development Banks The UK is one of the largest contributors to multilateral development banks (MDBs), which have collectively committed over $100 billion in climate finance over the last four years. The MDBs have made significant pledges to scale up climate finance by 2020 and to better integrate climate considerations across their activities. Since the previous National Communication the UK has provided further capital contributions to MDBs working in low income countries. The UK is the largest donor to the International Development Association and has committed £3,336 million to its 18th replenishment. The UK has also committed £460 million to the 14th replenishment of the African Development Fund. The UK continues to work with the MDBs to encourage ambition, effectiveness and transparency in the scaling up their financing of climate activities in developing countries, their co-operation with national and regional institutions and the further mainstreaming of climate dimensions into development activities. MDBs have reported jointly on outflows of climate 6.3.5 UK and UNFCCC Mandatory and Voluntary Contributions As a signatory to the UNFCCC, the UK pays mandatory subscriptions to contribute to ensuring an effective Secretariat to the UNFCCC and meetings of its Parties. The UK also makes voluntary contributions each year to fund priority activities within the • The UNFCCC Trust Fund for Supplementary Activities; • The UNFCCC Trust Fund for Developing Country Participation; and • The UNFCCC additional intersessional meetings. In addition, the UK provides small scale funding to help contribute to the costs of the OECD Climate Change Experts Group programme and to provide some small–scale targeted support to the most progressive and vulnerable countries in the negotiations, including through the The UK is supporting Fiji as the first Small Island Developing States COP Presidency with £1.7 million of funding across 2017-2018. UK support to the Climate Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) was also continued in 2017 with up to £2 million provided to enable effective participation of the poorest developing nations in the UN climate negotiations. As a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UK makes voluntary contributions each year to the IPCC’s Trust Fund. The UK has committed to contributing £115k per year in 2017 , 2018 and 2019. The UK also committed to contributing an additional £115k in 2017 only, making its contribution £230k in total for this year. This section sets out how the UK directs its climate finance, firstly by outlining the support the UK provides to the operating entities of the UNFCCC Financial Mechanism and other cross- cutting multi-lateral funds; then providing an outline of UK support for mitigation and adaptation activities. Finally, the section sets out actions in a number of UK ICF sectoral priorities – forestry, mobilising private finance and establishing international carbon markets. 218 7th National Communication 6.4.1 Cross-cutting support through Multilateral Climate Funds, including the operating entities of the UNFCCC financial mechanism The UK has been a key supporter of both the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) since their formation and is committed to ensuring their effectiveness in delivering climate finance within the broader financial architecture. 6.4.1.1 The Green Climate Fund Since becoming operational in 2015, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) has become the key multilateral climate fund, with a mandate to make ‘an ambitious contribution to the global efforts towards attaining the goals set by the international community to combat climate change’.
The UK is a strong supporter of the GCF having committed £720 Million for the initial resource mobilisation period, and is committed to ensuring that the GCF delivers maximum impacts in the developing countries it supports. The GCF funds transformational projects with a strong focus on leveraging private finance, with a commitment to provide 50% of its resources for mitigation and 50% for adaptation. At least 50% of its adaptation support will be provided to particularly vulnerable countries including Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African States. In the past year, the GCF has made significant progress in terms of programming, tightening its policy framework, and building the Secretariat’s capacity. So far, the GCF has committed $2.65 billion of funding to 54 projects, representing a balanced geographical and thematic split, with over 50% of funds going to private sector projects, and over $400 million to Small Island Developing Progress has also been made on enhancing direct access to finance, with the agreement in 2017 to pilot a Simplified Approvals Process for projects with up to $10 million of GCF financing, and the ongoing work to facilitate increased proposals from direct access entities which saw nine new direct access entities accredited to the GCF in 2017 . The Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme set up by the GCF also aims to facilitate the activity of the Fund, recognising the need to support direct access entities in their applications and to assist countries with related processes under the UNFCCC such as the preparation of National Adaptation Plans. Over $40 million of GEF funds have been approved for readiness activities, with 60 countries benefitting from this support to date. 6.4.1.2 The Global Environment Facility The UK is a long-standing contributor to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to fund projects and activities providing not only climate change benefits, but also tackling broader environmental issues such as biodiversity and land degradation. The GEF is a funding mechanism for five UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants; Minamata Convention on Mercury; UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as well as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Programmes are implemented through 18 partners including multilateral development banks, UN agencies, and NGOs. The GEF budget is replenished on 4-yearly cycles and a total of 39 countries contribute. The current sixth replenishment period (2014-2018) has a budget of $4.43 billion. The UK is contributing £210 million in total to GEF-6. Since its creation in 1991, GEF has implemented 1,010 climate change mitigation projects contributing to 2.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emission reductions, equivalent of taking 560 million cars off the road each year. It has also led to the creation of 3,300 protected areas, covering more than, 860 million hectares, an area

Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 219 6.4.1.3 Climate Investment Funds The UK is the largest investor in the $8.3 billion Climate Investment Funds (CIFs), having invested £1252.9 million between 2011/12 and 2016/17 , to pilot low-emission and climate resilient development through projects implemented by the multilateral development banks. The CIFs now operate across 72 countries and have a total portfolio of 310 projects. CIFs finance is enabling the building of the equivalent of over a quarter of the current global installed geothermal and concentrated solar power. The projects are unlocking finance flows in the green markets of developing countries and are expected to generate $58 billion of co-financing. The CIFs are comprised of four key programmes, and we detail in the below sections how UK ICF support contributes to each of these programmes individually. 6.4.2 activities undertaken by the public and private sectors to finance The Paris Agreement requires all Parties to put forward “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), setting national targets for reducing emissions towards the common ‘well below 2°C’ increase goal. The UK’s mitigation efforts seek to help meet the financing challenge of realising these emissions reductions by reducing risks to private investment, halting deforestation and accelerating technological change at scale. The UK is using its International Climate Finance to effect “transformational change” through targeted investment in innovative projects with the potential to be scaled up and replicated by others, and by tackling barriers that hold the private sector back from investing. This section describes some of the initiatives and actions that the UK is undertaking to support decarbonisation activities in developing countries. Through and beyond these examples, the UK also aims to raise capacity in countries and build on the UK’s low carbon experience and expertise. Further examples of how the UK is enabling in country capacity are set out in section 5 of this chapter.. 6.4.2.4 Accelerating technological change at scale Raising ambition and accelerating the rate of decarbonisation is critical to achieving global climate goals. There has been a rapid shift towards renewable energy over the last few years. Sectors such as transport, buildings, urban planning, and energy efficiency offer significant potential to reduce emissions while delivering major economic, health and environmental benefits, but are not yet on a pathway consistent with the well below 2°C goal. The UK’s ICF is supporting developing countries to achieve economic growth in a sustainable way. Access to affordable, reliable and sustainable modern energy is central to this. Interventions are being supported at the regional, national, sub-national or sectoral level through UK bilateral and multilateral support.
Many of these interventions aim to lay the conditions for increasing The UK’s main priorities are • Build capacity and capability in countries to implement their NDCs and raise ambition further, working to overcome regulatory and institutional barriers, including sharing UK skills and expertise where it is helpful; • Deliver clean energy to the millions of people currently without any access to electricity and other forms of modern energy; • Push frontiers by demonstrating and deploying technologies, policies and approaches that are critical for a well below 2°C trajectory; and • Drive decarbonisation at scale through the international development system – supporting the development banks to scale up their climate investments and become more climate-smart across their activities. 220 7th National Communication 6.4.3 Contributing to international climate change mitigation funds The following are examples of UK contributions to international climate change funds, in addition The Clean Technology Fund (CTF) - Of the four funds that sit under the Climate Investment Fund, the UK has contributed £701 million between 2011/12 to 2016/17 to the Clean Technology Fund (CTF). The CTF provides concessional finance and technical assistance in 21 countries, delivering significant development benefits, such as increased energy security, reduced local air pollution, and job opportunities. It has supported national governments to identify and implement ambitious low carbon investment plans, and helped demonstrate technologies and create markets. South Africa’s KaXu Solar One Concentrated Solar Power project, with funding from the Technology Fund, has recently been awarded a Momentum for Change Award by the UNFCCC for its innovative and game-changing approach to climate change and wider economic, social and The Scaling up Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) is another of the four Climate Investment Funds. The UK has provided £268m to SREP , which aims to stimulate energy access and economic activity by working with governments to build renewable energy markets and support productive uses of energy at the household level. As of June 2017 , SREP had endorsed investment plans for 19 pilot countries. Expected results under these plans, and the Fund’s Private Sector Set Aside, include an estimated 6,686 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity to be generated annually from renewable energy sources (equivalent to the annual electricity production of Armenia) and new or improved access to clean, modern energy services for 17 .3 million people (approximately the population of Malawi). The total estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be avoided are approximately 5.4 million tons CO The Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) Facility is a bilateral programme supported by the UK, working in partnership with the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMUB), Denmark and the European Commission. NAMAs are country owned projects, policies, or programmes that shift a technology or sector in a country onto a low-carbon development trajectory. The Facility seeks to support and fund the implementation of the most transformational parts of the NAMAs, for which countries are unable to attract private sector funding. It has an open application process, welcoming projects across a diverse range of sectors and geographies. Since 2012, 20 climate mitigation projects across 16 countries have been supported, with each project chosen for its ability to catalyse change in the sector. To support this demand the UK has committed £140 million into the Facility, of which £40 million has been allocated to the 5 the Facility launched on 13 November 2017 . Further details on mitigation finance activities through the UK’s focus on forestry, mobilising private finance and carbon pricing are found in subsequent sections. 6.4.4 Adaptation, including assistance provided to developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting the cost of adaptation UK ICF investments aim to support international poverty reduction now and in the future by helping developing countries manage risk and build resilience to the impacts of climate change, take up low-carbon development at scale, and manage natural resources sustainably.The poorest and most vulnerable people in the world will be hit first and hardest by the impacts of 160 The UK provides the majority of its funding through trusted delivery partners which leads to complex delivery chains from its fund through to the final recipient. For this reason, the UK does not systematically track who the ultimate end recipient is (including whether it is public or private) and what their role is in the project. Examples of support are provided in CTF tables. Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 221 climate change. This is why the UK aims to spend half of its climate finance on adaptation - in 2016, 51% of the UK’s ICF was spent on adaptation, with a focus on the poorest and most We recognise the central importance of countries having a clear plan for adaptation that is tailored to the risks they are likely to face. The UK is committed to helping countries ensure they are able to put in place such plans to guide action. The UK has already provided over £1.6 billion to help vulnerable developing countries between 2011 and 2016. The UK’s ICF has to date helped 34 million people cope with the effects of climate change through by assisting developing countries to • adapt to long term impacts well in advance, for example by changing or diversifying livelihoods and ensuring infrastructure is fit for purpose. • anticipate and reduce the impact of climate variability and extremes for example through effective forecasting and preparedness measures. • absorb the effects of climate extremes and disasters for example through effective and rapid response that enables people to cope with disaster and recover quickly. 6.4.4.1 UK action on adaptation The UK provides finance through international funds as well as bilaterally, through multi country projects and civil society.
The UK will focus on assisting people to anticipate the impact of change through better planning and forecasting, adapt to long term impacts well in advance, – for example by changing or diversifying livelihoods and ensuring infrastructure is fit for purpose – and to absorb the effects of disasters and climate extremes through effective and rapid Programmes supported by the UK may work across all three areas of action as set out above. A series of examples of UK activities in each of these areas is detailed • Building Resilience to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) - This programme is supporting local and national institutions to deliver policies and programmes that better integrate disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation and development approaches. It is supporting community level initiatives in 13 countries through 15 NGO consortia that are, for example, delivering improved climate information for agriculture, securing livestock migration routes, and building infrastructure to help crops avoid flood and capture water for future use. • The £26 million Climate High-Level Investment Programme in Ethiopia closed earlier in 2017 . This has so far supported more than 1.4 million people to cope with the effects of climate change, as well as building institutional capacity to ensure that the Ethiopian Government is more capable of assessing and addressing climate risks. • Introducing models for the sustainable management of mangroves in Madagascar to help increase the resilience of coastal communities. The £10.1 million project, involving fisheries management and improvement and mangrove livelihood diversification, is expected to protect around 20,000 hectares of mangrove forests and

222 7th National Communication Other programmes can have a particular focus; • Weather and Climate Information and Services for Africa (WISER). This programme aims to enhance the resilience of poor people and of economic development in Africa to weather and climate shocks, by improving the quality and use of weather and climate forecasts and other information services. This will contribute to increased productivity of climate sensitive sectors, like agriculture, health and infrastructure. Improved weather information can also help to protect lives. • The UK is supporting Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research programme which aims to enhance the scientific understanding and prediction of climate variability and change in Africa and, at the same time, is working with stakeholders to bring this information into use in adaptation planning. FCFA includes 11 pilot studies across sub-Saharan Africa that are using climate information to inform decisions, including infrastructure development, climate-smart agriculture, and urban and national planning. • The UK is a major contributor to African Risk Capacity (ARC) which strengthens African governments’ understanding of drought risk and enables them to buy insurance that will pay out after harvest failures due to droughts. Senegal, Mauritania and Niger received payments totalling $26.5 million after poor rains in 2014, providing food aid, animal fodder and other assistance to 1.3 million people. Malawi received a payment of $8.1 million in 2016, which they have used for emergency cash transfers to affected people and to replenish the national strategic grain reserve. Seven countries are eligible for insurance this year. • Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing provides technical assistance and enables insurance for the Pacific Islands to protect against natural disasters such as cyclones and tsunamis thereby reducing their reliance on humanitarian aid. Tonga, Marshall Islands, Cook Islands, Vanuatu, and Samoa (625,000 people in total) are currently insured. 6.4.4.5 Contributing to international climate change adaptation funds Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR): the UK is the largest contributor to the $1.2 billion Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR), one of the four Funds that sit under the CIFs. The PPCR assists governments with the integration of climate resilience into development planning, and pilots innovative public and private solutions to climate-related risks, primarily in Least Developed Countries or Small Island Developing States. For example, a $15.75 million project in Mozambique will develop climate resilient infrastructure to improve the ability of 8,200 farming families to withstand extreme weather events. Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF): the UK is also a long-standing contributor to the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), which supports LDCs in developing their National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) and funding the resultant programming. Through our most recent contribution of £30 million the UK is aiming to help nearly a million people become more resilient to climate change, and to bring approximately 200,000 hectares of land under more sustainable management. This was the fourth contribution that the UK has made to the LDCF – total contributions amount to £122 million since 2006The LDCF has provided $8 million towards a project strengthening the climate resilience of vulnerable communities in Somalia. Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 223 Outcomes so far include the construction of a sand dam which has stored enough water for 40,000 people and their livestock to survive through the prolonged drought period in the Bari As well as being responsible for at least 12% of global GHG emissions, deforestation threatens the livelihoods of millions through rising desertification, soil erosion, flooding, and falling biodiversity. Through its ICF, the UK is supporting global efforts to slow, halt and reverse deforestation. As well as the climate change mitigation benefits, tackling deforestation also offers big opportunities to reduce poverty and protect biodiversity, with corresponding benefits for The UK is working with ambitious forest governments and private sector stakeholders to address market and governance failures linked to deforestation. The UK played a key role in brokering ambitious international and multi-stakeholder agreements, such as the New York Declaration on Forests in 2014 and the Leaders’ Statement on Forests and Climate Change in Paris, 2015. The UK also works with private sector stakeholders through a range of initiatives including the BioCarbon Fund, the Partnership for Forests programme, and the Eco.Business The UK ICF forests strategy aims to support progress towards halving global deforestation by 2020 and halting it by 2030.
Together with Germany and Norway, the UK has pledged to collectively provide $5 billion between 2015 and 2020 to incentivise ambitious governments, companies and communities to protect our largest natural global carbon sinks. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve the livelihoods and climate resilience of forest-dependent people, and protect biodiversity, as well as providing other environmental benefits such as reducing desertification and flooding. Investment is targeted towards projects that improve forest governance and knowledge enhancement, pay for ecosystem services, boost biodiversity, promote climate smart agriculture and enable stronger community-led forest management, amongst other factors. The UK also supports public-private initiatives to promote zero deforestation supply chains, and innovative solutions to leverage private finance for sustainable • sustainable climate-resilient growth; • capacity building to improve governance, address land tenure, strengthen sustainable land-use, and promote the full and effective participation of indigenous peoples and local communities in programmes that reduce deforestation and forest degradation; • the private sector to transform supply chains to become deforestation-free, and leverage significant private investment in forests and agriculture. Through its ICF, the UK is supporting a number of bilateral and multilateral programmes, including the following examples, discussed in detail The Forest Investment Programme (FIP) – part of the Climate Investment Funds, is a REDD+ mechanism that provides upfront financing for public and private investments in forestry and related sectors. The UK has contributed £223 million to the FIP . Its objectives (a) transformational change in developing countries’ policies and practices; (b) piloting replicable models to generate learning on the link between investment and emission reduction, sustainable forest management (SFM), and enhanced carbon stocks; (c) leveraging additional resources to attain effective and sustained REDD+; (d) providing experience and lesson learning. 224 7th National Communication FIP grants and low-interest loans ($775 million), channeled through partner multilateral development banks (MDBs), are empowering countries to address the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation both inside and outside of the forest sector to achieve the triple win of being good for forests, good for development and good for the climate. FIP projects will result in an estimated reduction or avoidance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 11.17 MtCO2e, more than 1.1 million people will receive livelihood co-benefits, and an area of 27 .8 million hectares will be under improved management. REDD+ is a framework agreed under the UNFCCC to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks (+) in developing countries. It is aiming to demonstrate the potential of a new land-use paradigm that delivers large-scale forest protection alongside sustainable agricultural intensification. The UK will continue to support “jurisdictional” REDD+ results-based finance that unlocks key barriers in the enabling environment and mobilises private finance, including the examples – The UK has committed £145 million to the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility to support more than 40 countries to develop and then deliver ambitious plans to reduce deforestation. It provides payments based on progress to reduce deforestation as an incentive for countries to take action. – The UK is also supporting the BioCarbon Fund with £115 million to fund policy reform and land-use projects across large areas to roll out new landscape-wide approaches that produce verified emission reductions from agriculture, forests and other land use. It will work hand in hand with progressive major commodity producers and buyers that are aiming to remove deforestation from their supply chains. The UK has committed £73 million to the REDD for Early Movers (REM) programme which is an accelerator for the most ambitious and committed countries to reduce emissions from deforestation. REM rewards programmes that are already successful in driving down deforestation trends, with finance re-invested in agreed activities to deliver further results. UK support focusses on Colombia’s programme to achieve zero net deforestation in its Amazon region as well as programmes to decouple increases in production from forest loss in two leading Brazilian States – Acre and Mato Grosso. The Forest Governance, Markets and Climate (FGMC) programme aims to reduce the illegal trade in forest resources by addressing forest sector governance and market failures that permit illegal forest practices. The FGMC programme makes use of trade and market incentives to influence reforms in timber-producing countries where governance failures often result in illegal logging and neglect of rights to forest land and resources for those living in poverty. By reducing illegal logging these people will have a greater voice in what happens to their forest. This will not only reduce the likelihood of conflict over forest tenure, it could also help avoid up to £13 billion in revenue and tax loss to developing countries, by clarifying forest-dependent peoples’ tenure rights and supporting improved governance and stronger enforcement of forest Over the next 25 years, the FGMC programme will help protect up to 39 million hectares of forest (13 million hectares more than the size of the UK). It will help avoid billions of tonnes of carbon (CO2e) emissions, protect the livelihoods of tens of millions of forest-dependent communities and increase the incomes of 50 million men, women and children reliant on farming. The UK has committed £79 million to the FGMC programme between 2012 and 2016. Partnership for Forests adds value to standing forests in Africa, Latin America, and Indonesia by incubating new investments in agroforestry and non-timber forest products, helping local people − often indigenous communities and smallholder farmers − connect to new markets and scale up production for their products. It can also target commodities that are driving large-scale

Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 225 deforestation by facilitating multi-stakeholder approaches and solutions which support implementation of zero-deforestation supply-chain commitments. The programme provides a mix of grants and technical assistance to project developers to bring projects aimed at creating deforestation-free commodity supply chains to commercial viability.
The Sustainable Rural Development project in Brazil will encourage small and medium sized farms to implement sustainable low carbon agriculture identified in the Brazilian Government’s Plano ABC programme to avoid deforestation and restore degraded land in the Amazon and Atlantic Forests, expanding to the Cerrado next year. The programme aims to showcase best practices in implementing low carbon sustainable agriculture that protects and enhances the environment whilst increasing farming productivity and income. The project supports farmers • Improving access to information, such as demonstration farms and access to rural • Providing capacity building and technical assistance to support farmers to transition to • Financial incentives for farmers who successful in implementing of a low carbon The UK has invested £54.9 million into this project. The first phase aims to reduce deforestation by 16,500 hectares and restore 41,100 hectares. This will increase annual income per hectare 5-fold for 3,700 small and medium sized farms and will reduce emissions by 10.4 MTCO²e over 6.4.6 Mobilising Private Finance Mobilising private investment in climate action is crucial to meeting the global goal of limiting temperature increase to 2°C. However there are a range of market barriers that prevent investments from happening at scale in developing countries. Climate finance can help to overcome market barriers by building capacity and capabilities in developing countries. Using public climate finance to help create the conditions to enable the private sector to mobilise the investment needed is an essential step in delivering on the Paris Agreement, and for this reason the UK’s ICF tests new and innovative approaches that can be replicated and scaled up by the The UK provides concessional or market-rate finance to help projects reach financial close and demonstrate profitability, with the aim of reducing real and perceived risks and costs of low- carbon investments. The UK also facilitates access to finance by strengthening local financial institutions and broadening types of finance available in developing country markets. Because low-carbon technologies like renewable energy are often capital-intensive at the beginning, they are particularly sensitive to the cost and availability of capital. In seeking to mobilise private finance, the UK is using its ICF • Mobilise private climate finance internationally that would not otherwise flow to countries, and seek to create a sustainable climate investment market; • Mobilise private sector engagement and finance in specific sectors and technologies that experience difficulties in accessing private finance or which pose long term • Create a better understanding of private finance internationally to inform future climate finance policy and climate projects. 226 7th National Communication 7 .b of the CTF (attached in the annex). This includes, but is not limited to the following The Sustainable Infrastructure Programme - In 2017 the UK established the Sustainable Infrastructure Program (SIP) in Latin America in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank. The purpose of the programme is to enable and accelerate the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions in Latin America, initially Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, focusing on supporting and catalysing private sector investments in low carbon infrastructure. The UK will provide up to £177 .5 million from its ICF budget over 5 years to provide technical and financial support. This can include technical assistance to governments to help them shape their regulatory frameworks in a way that is attractive to private investors, support the development of local capital markets, while also investing in a few demonstration projects to show commercial UK Climate Investments - UK Climate Investments LLP has been mandated to invest in up to £200 million of UK ICF in low carbon projects in emerging markets its pilot phase (2015-2018). The Investment Mandate requires UKCI to make equity investments into renewable energy and energy efficiency projects in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Through investing in a minority equity stake, UKCI aims to leverage additional private equity and debt investment into the projects. The central objectives of the pilot • Use a private sector actor to have a demonstration effect, build a successful track record and prove commerciality of low carbon investments to the broader market by making a strong return on investment; and • Achieve better value for money by more effectively and nimbly interacting with the UKCI’s first investment in India was alongside a UK solar developer in a partnership platform to fund the development, acquisition and ownership of large scale solar power generation The Renewable Energy Performance Platform (REPP) -The REPP seeks to mobilise private sector development activity and investment in small and medium scale renewable energy projects (up to 25MW) in sub-Saharan Africa. REPP aims to increase the number of sound ‘bankable’ smaller renewable energy projects by assisting project proponents throughout the project development stage, by financing Technical Assistance, drawing on existing risk mitigation instruments such as political risk insurance and providing results-based finance where necessary. The UK has committed £48 million for 2015 to 2020. The Climate Public Private Partnership (CP3) a £130 million programme that aims to support clean energy and demonstrate the commercial viability of investments in climate related businesses in emerging markets. By anchoring two private equity funds – i.e. providing committed investment into these funds to help attract additional investors - the programme mobilised private climate finance of $279 million and kick-started the largest private equity climate fund in Asia. The funds have so far invested in 68 businesses and renewable energy developers across developing countries in Asia, Africa and South and Central America. CP3 is expected to avoid 57 .4m tonnes of CO2 equivalent over its lifetime (to 2026). The eco.business Fund - The UK has invested £20 million into the eco.business Fund, which is a private-public partnership currently operating in Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua and El Salvador. The Fund promotes business and consumption practices that contribute to biodiversity conservation and the sustainable use of natural resources.
By leveraging and de- risking investment from private sector donors the Fund will protect around 32,500 hectares of

Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 227 biodiverse forest and deliver 280,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide savings. Within five years public sector finance in the eco.business Fund is projected to reach $147 million, bringing in private sector funding of $314 million. The UK government considers that carbon pricing is crucial to support and raise the ambition needed to tackle the climate change challenge. Carbon pricing can provide a cost effective and technology-neutral way of reducing emissions, and is another key focus for mobilising the private sector towards the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals. It is for this reason that the UK continues to promote the use of pricing instruments both domestically and internationally. Since 2005 the UK has been a participant in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world’s largest system, and has been an active proponent of reform to help make it as effective as possible. Internationally, the UK continues to support carbon pricing through a portfolio of programmes aimed at building capacity and piloting new approaches. Below are some • The UK has invested £7 million since 2011 in the $127 million World Bank managed Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) fund, supporting 19 countries to design and put in place domestic initiatives such as carbon taxes or ETSs. This is done through the provision of grants to allow countries to implement Market Readiness proposals. The PMR supports Brazil, for example, to explore various carbon pricing instruments by carrying out analytical studies on alternative policy design options, assessing their impacts, and building modelling capacity. • The UK is improving access to carbon finance in least developed countries through our involvement in the World Bank’s Carbon Initiative for Development (Ci-Dev). Ci-Dev works in some of the poorest countries in Africa to prepare them to participate in the international carbon market while providing clean energy for households and communities. The program enables local developers to put their ideas into practice, and helps build capacity as needed, for example by aggregating many small projects at household or community level and calculating the carbon that has been saved in order to get a payment incentive. The UK has committed £49 million. • In 2016, the UK contributed £60m to the new Transformative Carbon Asset Facility. The purpose of the TCAF is to support countries with sizeable mitigation potential to scale up their ambition as they implement their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. Programmes are intended to showcase innovative methodologies for using carbon pricing at scale, to allow the host country to deliver greater emission reduction ambition than in their current Nationally Determined Contributions. Almost 90% of the funding will be spent on results-based purchases of emission reductions from supported programmes. Other donors in the TCAF are currently Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Canada and Germany. In 2015 the Paris Agreement reiterated the importance of carbon markets in meeting international commitments by establishing a new framework for voluntary cooperation to enable countries to go further on their mitigation ambition. These provisions will help make the UK vision for the future of the global carbon market a reality by providing the foundations to facilitate bottom-up cooperation while creating the necessary top-down structures, including key rules to avoid double

228 7th National Communication 6.5 Steps taken by government to promote, facilitate and finance transfer of technology to developing countries The world needs increasing energy supplies to sustain economic growth and development. However, energy resources are under pressure and CO2 emissions from today’s energy use are already changing the climate. It is necessary to accelerate the deployment of low carbon energy technologies and increase energy efficiency in order to address the global challenges of energy security, climate change and economic development. Understanding that lesson sharing enhances programming, the ICF will continue to strengthen its Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Program to support the generation and use of evidence and knowledge from across the portfolio. These lessons are captured in publicly available evaluations. The NAMA Facility published their mid-term evaluation report earlier this year – highlighting that there are ‘ample opportunities for learning and replication’ across their portfolio. Another program, The Carbon Capture and Storage Trust Fund, used their evaluation of activities in the first phase of the program (released April 2016) to propose an evaluation framework for the second phase in order to effectively The UK has also funded a Special initiative under the Climate Investment Funds focussed on Evaluation and Learning. The initiative supports learning based on evaluative and evidence- based activities within the CIF at different levels, including the project, program, thematic, and portfolio/fund levels. Within the initiative there are demand driven evaluations of CIFs programmes, portfolio level evaluations and a transformational change learning partnership involving multiple stakeholders including CIFs project staff, donors, and representative from The UK provides the majority of its funding through trusted delivery partners. This leads to complex delivery chains from its fund through to the final recipient. The UK does not systematically track indicators for technology transfer. The UK undertakes annual reviews of all of its programmes and these will include support provided for technology transfer. This enables progress to be tracked against project milestones and the UK publishes this information on the financing of solar infrastructure has been reported separately to ‘soft’ technology (i.e. capacity Below are some examples of technology 1) Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS): Since 2012, the UK has provided £60 million to support developing countries to build up the technical and institutional knowledge necessary to enable the deployment of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) technologies. The UK is extending this support by £10 million in 2017-2018. CCUS development and deployment is crucial for meeting the 2°C target set out under the Paris Agreement.
The UK recently completed an evidence review of the global evidence base on CCUS, which highlights that globally, 12-14% of cost-effective decarbonisation needs to come from CCUS in order to meet the 2°C target. The programme aims to raise the level of technical understanding of CCUS within key developing countries, leading to the establishment of the necessary policy frameworks and incentive structures to support CCUS demonstration and ultimately accelerate the

Chapter 6 – Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 229 2) The Clean Technology Fund (CTF), to which the UK is the largest contributor (providing £701 million), has demonstrated and deployed low carbon technologies at scale across 21 countries. Examples include supporting the first generation of utility scale Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants to be built in developing countries, with the plant in South Africa now providing power to 80,000 people and winning a Momentum for Change award from the UNFCCC. CTF finance for the Noor CSP complex in Morocco has helped to bring down technology costs and overall CTF has supported around a fifth of global CSP deployment to date. The fund has dramatically scaled up geothermal development across multiple countries, as well as a wide range of other renewable and clean transport technologies. 3) Capacity Building and As agreed by COP21, the Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) was established by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in 2015 to support developing countries to meet new reporting requirements under the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement. The UK is the largest donor to CBIT to date, committing £10 million from the ICF and £1 million from the Scottish Government. 4) The Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s Clean Energy Fund was set up to improve energy access, energy security and the transition to low-carbon technologies through cost-effective investments. The UK’s contribution of £10 million is specifically used to fund the technical assistance elements of the fund. 5) Climate Innovation Centres The UK funded Global Network of Climate Innovation Centres programme provides funding to the World Bank’s Climate Technology Programme (CTP) to support the design, implementation, and international coordination of Climate Innovation Centres (CICs) in developing countries. The programme assists local entrepreneurs develop innovative technology and business solutions to domestic energy, resource and environmental challenges. The UK also supports CICs in Ethiopia and Vietnam through bi-lateral programmes, while there are additional non-DFID supported CICs in South Africa, the Caribbean, Ghana and Morocco. The programme helps gather evidence on climate technology innovation in developing countries, enabling national CICs to respond to technology trends. 6.5.1 Securing policy commitments to accelerate low carbon technology deployment through multilateral initiatives The UK has continued to leverage the collective commitment of the international community in other key fora and institutions to deliver policy interventions and high level actions that encourage the promotion of low carbon technologies, • Mission Innovation - the UK is a leading member of Mission Innovation, an international initiative which aims to dramatically accelerate clean energy innovation to make clean energy widely affordable; • Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) - The UK supports Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which monitors delivery of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). SDG7 o Universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030 by o Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix o Doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency • International Energy Agency (IEA) – The UK has played a key role in supporting the IEA’s increasing focus on low carbon energy technology, including through support of their flagship Energy Technology Perspectives, which is the most comprehensive

230 7th National Communication analysis of global low carbon technology development and deployment, both in OECD and major non-OECD countries. The UK funds various IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCPs) relating to low carbon energy, and the UK has active engagement in the IEA’s Renewable Energy Working Party. The UK has announced that it will make a leading £8 million contribution to the IEA’s new Clean Energy Transitions Programme, which will provide key emerging economies with cutting technical assistance on the • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) - The UK supports IRENA’s mission to promote widespread and sustainable use of renewable energy through its role a centre of excellence for energy transformation, a global voice for renewables, a network hub for international collaboration, and a source of support and advice. The UK has been an IRENA Council member for 2016-2017 and has helped to drive forward IRENA’s medium-term strategy which is consistent with UK government objectives regarding energy security and decarbonisation. • Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) - the CEM is a forum to promote and share lessons learned from policies and programmes that advance clean energy technology. The UK is a member of a number of the CEM’s initiatives, such as the initiative on Super- Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment. The also contributed funding towards the new CEM Secretariat hosted at the IEA; • International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Co-operation (IPEEC) - IPEEC is a forum to allow major economies to co-operate and collaborate on all aspects of energy efficiency policy. IPEEC’s work is undertaken through a series of Task Groups and the UK actively participates in a number of these Groups, including those working on appliance standards, buildings, finance and data. The UK also contributes funding to support the work of the IPEEC Secretariat. 6.6 Other actions to accelerate the alignment of finance flows with low greenhouse gas and climate resilient development The Paris Agreement’s Article 2.1c commits Parties to collectively align finance flows with low greenhouse gas and climate resilient development. This will require a transformation beyond public finance alone, including greater action to develop carbon markets, remove policy misalignments, establish green finance capabilities, build in-country capacity, and integrate climate resilience into national development planning. The OECD has estimated that the additional $0.6 trillion needed to make global infrastructure investment climate compatible from 161 will likely be offset over time by fuel savings resulting from low-emission technologies and infrastructure.