3.3.1 EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package and the Kyoto Protocol 32 3.3.2 UK targets under the Effort Sharing Directive and Kyoto Protocol 32 3.3.3 UK targets under the EU ETS and Kyoto Protocol 34 3.3.4 Coverage differences targets and IPCC reporting requirements 34 4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 37 4.1 Progress towards achieving UK targets 37 4.1.2 Welsh Government target 38 4.1.3 Scottish Government target 38 4.1.5 UK progress towards Kyoto Protocol Targets 40 4.2 Domestic institutional arrangements 41 4.2.4 Northern Ireland Executive 44 4.3.1 Powering Past Coal Just Transition Taskforce 46 4.3.2 Supporting countries to develop their 2050 pathways 47 4.3.3 Transition to a net zero economy 47 4.3.4 Scotland’s Just Transition Commission 48 5.2 Overall projections of GHG emissions 51 5.2.1 Projected progress across the traded and non-traded sectors 53 5.3.9 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry 59 5.5 Total effect of policies and measures 62

5.6 Projection methods by sector 64 5.6.9 Land use, land use change and forestry 67 5.7.1 Estimation of emissions in Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories 67 5.7.2 Strengths of the projection methodology 68 5.7.3 Weaknesses of the projection methodology 68 5.7.5 Quality assurance and quality controls 69 5.9 Differences from the last Biennial Report 74 6. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing 6.2 Overview of UK support, approach and channels 76 6.3 Overview of UK commitments 76 6.4 Financial support through International Climate Finance 77 6.4.1 Institutional approach to UK support 77 6.4.2 The UK’s categorisation of support 78 6.4.3 Support for multilateral climate funds 79 6.4.6 Land use change and forestry 84 6.5 Technology development and transfer 86 6.5.1 Securing policy commitments to accelerate low carbon technology deployment 87 6.6.1 Capacity building for mitigation 88 6.6.2 Capacity building for adaptation 89 6.6.3 Capacity building for technology transfer 90 6.6.4 Capacity building for negotiations 90 6.7 Actions to accelerate the alignment of finance flows and raise ambition 91 6.7.2 Accelerating ambition and implementation internationally 91 6.8 Monitoring and evaluation, lessons learnt and transparency 92

6.8. 1 Monitoring and evaluation 92 6.8. 2 Lessons learnt and evidence-based programming 93 6.8. 3 Reporting and transparency 94 Annex 1: Common Tabular Format Tables supporting the UK’s fourth biennial report to the Annex 2: Sectoral definitions and inclusion 181 Annex 3: Global Warming Potentials 203 Annex 4: Summary reports of UK GHG inventories 205

AEA Annual Emission Allocations BEIS Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy BWT Biological Waste Treatment CCC Committee on Climate Change CCUS Carbon capture, usage and storage CDM Clean Development Mechanism CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DFID Department for International Development EEP Energy and Emissions Projections ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme EUMM European Union Monitoring Mechanism

FARPI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office GEF Global Environment Facility IAR International assessment and review ICF International climate finance IDA International Development Association IEA International Energy Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry MtCO2e Mega tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NICS Northern Irish Civil Service NISC National Inventory Steering Committee NMVOC Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds OBR Office for Budget Responsibility OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ONS Office for National Statistics PPCA Powering Past Coal Alliance REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

UK PACT UK Partnerships for Accelerating Climate Transitions UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In doing so we became the first major economy to set a date for ending our contribution to At the 2019 United Nations Climate Action Summit, the Prime Minister was clear that all countries must increase the ambition of their mitigation targets expressed through Nationally Determined Contributions and long-term strategies. To that end the UK will increase its international ambition ahead At that Summit, we also announced that we will double our International Climate Finance – from £5.8 billion to at We, Secretary of State Andrea Leadsom and Minister Lord Duncan, are proud to set out in this document the strong progress the UK has made in reducing our climate impact. The science is clear about the speed, scale and cost to lives and livelihoods of the climate crisis we face, yet global emissions continue to rise year on year. Urgent global action In the UK, we have cut emissions by 42% between 1990 and 2017, while growing the economy by more than two-thirds. We have reduced our use of coal in our electricity system from almost 40% to only 5% in just seven years, and we lead the world in the deployment of clean technologies such as offshore wind. Last year was the cleanest year for electricity ever in the UK, with low carbon sources contributing 53% of The Paris Agreement requires the international community to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Following the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the impacts of global warming even of 1.5°C, the UK enshrined in legislation in June 2019 a commitment to meet net least £11.6 billion from 2021-2025. This doubling will help us to support developing countries turn the tide against climate change and accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy, drawing on the UK’s clean growth expertise. It will also help protect rainforests, restore degraded ecosystems and support the most vulnerable in dealing with the damaging effects of climate change. We hope that other donors will take similar steps by setting out their post-2020 climate finance pledges as soon as possible. The UK is honoured to have been nominated by our regional group to host COP26 in 2020, in partnership with Italy. The urgency of the challenge is clear.
We will use the opportunity of hosting the COP26 negotiations to shine a spotlight on ambitious action by governments, businesses and people around the world, and to continue to drive greater Rt Hon Andrea Leadsom MP Lord Duncan

10 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report

Biennial Reports are submitted under Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and under Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol, in compliance with the obligations according to Decisions 2/CP.17 and 19/CP.18 of the Conference of the In 2010 the COP decided, under decision 1/CP.16, that Annex I Parties (developed countries) should submit Biennial Reports, outlining progress in achieving emission reductions and providing financial, technological and capacity building support to non-Annex I Parties The decision also established a new process to promote the comparability and comparison of efforts among Annex I Parties, in terms of their economy wide emission reduction and limitation targets. This process is called international assessment review (IAR) and the UK’s Fourth Biennial Report will be subject to this process. The guidelines for preparing a Biennial Report were adopted during COP 17, under decision 2/CP.17, in 2011. The guidelines for preparing common tabular formats (CTFs) were adopted during COP 18, under decision 19/CP.18. The report has been prepared in line with The report is structured as • Chapter 2: Information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and trends presents information on the UK GHG inventory, covering emissions estimates for the period 1990-2017, and the national system established to produce and quality assure the UK • Chapter 3: Quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets presents the UK’s quantified economy-wide emission reduction target, including any conditions or assumptions that are relevant to the attainment of that target; • Chapter 4: Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets provides information on the UK’s mitigation actions, including on the policies and measures implemented or plans to implement since its last Biennial Report to achieve the UK’s economy-wide emission reduction target; • Chapter 5: Projections reports on updated emission projections to 2035; • Chapter 6: Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties details the UK’s contributions to non-Annex I Parties consistent with the requirements of Biennial Reports;

12 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report • Annex 1 contains CTF tables 1 to 6 supporting the UK’s Fourth Biennial Report; • Annex 2 provides information on sectoral definitions and inclusion to facilitate • Annex 3 contains Global Warming Potential (GWP) values; and • Annex 4 presents summary tables for the UK’s GHG inventory in 1990 and 2017 to

2. Information on GHG emissions This chapter presents information on the UK GHG inventory, covering emissions estimates for the period 1990-2017, and the National System established to produce and quality assure the Total UK emissions decreased by around 42% between 1990 and 2017. This reduction has been driven by a number of factors, such as the move away from coal-fired generation towards the use of natural gas and renewable sources; tighter regulation of landfills; increased utilisation of landfill CH4 in gas flares and engines; and abatement technology in adipic acid The UK is required to produce an annual GHG inventory, which gives an assessment of all human-driven GHG emissions across the UK, to meet its commitments under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. A concise summary of the National System is contained within this chapter. A more detailed summary can be found in the UK’s National Inventory Report (NIR), submitted to the UNFCCC in 20191. The GHG inventory covers the seven direct GHGs under the Kyoto Protocol. These are collectively known as the ‘basket’ of GHGs and • Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6); and The direct GHGs have different impacts on the atmosphere and are therefore assigned a GWP. The GWP is a means of providing a simple measure of the relative effects various gases emissions when compared with CO2, which has a GWP of 1. Once the GHG emissions are 1 UK GHG Inventory, 1990–2017, Annual report for submission under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, April 2019

14 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report converted into GWP equivalents, they can be summed and presented as carbon dioxide The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 in response to the threat of dangerous climate change. For the Kyoto Protocol, the UK’s base year for assessing emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O is 1990. The UK has chosen to use 1995 as the base year for fluorinated gases emissions HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3. This is in line with most other EU Member States, and in accordance with Article 3.8 of the Kyoto Protocol. This differs from the base year used by the UK when reporting more generally to the UNFCCC where the base year for all GHGs is 1990. The UK also uses the inventory to track progress against legally binding domestic targets, which are further discussed in Chapter 3. Under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol first commitment period, the UK’s Overseas Territories Gibraltar, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and the Falkland Islands, and Crown Dependencies Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man, are included. Emissions from each Overseas Territory and Crown Dependency are calculated individually and added to the UK This chapter shows trends in UK GHG emissions between 1990 and 2017, disaggregating overall emissions by gas, source and end-user sector. The “by source” basis includes emissions from the energy supply industry as a particular sector, whereas the “end-user” basis reallocates these emissions to the sectors that make use of the energy supplied. The inventory is also spatially disaggregated to provide geographical breakdown to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and to the 391 local authorities that make up the UK2. Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and removals are reported in the UK’s GHG inventory in accordance with the rules for reporting this sector under the UNFCCC.
The UNFCCC reporting basis includes an estimate of all anthropogenic sources minus sinks A narrower definition of LULUCF emissions and removals is used to assess progress against the Kyoto target, which includes only mandatory activities under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, and forest management, which the UK has chosen as an activity under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. In the first commitment period of the Protocol, the UK elected not to account for cropland, grazing land management or re-vegetation under Article 3.4. For the second commitment period the UK has elected to account for cropland management, grazing land management and wetland drainage and re-wetting. It has not elected to account for re- For calculation of the Kyoto Protocol base year, deforestation emissions in 1990 are included in the base year total, as required by Article 3.7 of the Kyoto Protocol and subsequent 2.2.3 National Inventory arrangements This section provides a summary of the National System the UK uses for preparing its GHG inventory. Section 1.2 of the NIR presents the full details of the institutional arrangements the UK has for inventory preparation. 2 Local Authority is a designation of local government used in the United Kingdom. 2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 15 The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has been appointed as the Single National Entity with responsibility for the overall management and strategic development of priority improvements in the UK’s GHG inventory. The latest NIR provides the contact details for the Single National Entity. Ricardo Energy & Environment3 is the delegated Inventory Agency with responsibility for the planning, preparation and reporting of the UK GHG inventory. Ricardo Energy & Environment is responsible for the quality and delivery of datasets to BEIS and reporting on BEIS’ behalf. BEIS has established the National Inventory Steering Committee (NISC), an inter -departmental committee responsible for prioritising improvements and the approval of the national inventory data prior to submission to the EU and the UNFCCC each year, as well as guiding the development of the inventory. NISC meets every April to agree what changes should be prioritised in the inventory in the coming year; and in November to discuss and approve changes that have been made and to scrutinise the effect on the inventory. The inventory team in BEIS acts as chair. Many of the primary users of the data are represented, such as the Office for National Statistics; the Energy Emission Projections and Carbon Budgets teams in BEIS; representatives of the devolved administrations; and the Inventory Verification Programme run by Bristol University and the Met Office. In addition, there are the organisations that help to input into the inventory from the Inventory Agency Consortium, the Department for Food, Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department for Transport (DfT). The NISC ensures that the data are scrutinised by those agencies that will be affected and concerns and queries can be raised. Emissions estimates for much of the energy sector, industrial processes sector and waste management sector are also produced under the Ricardo Energy & Environment contract. Emissions from the agricultural sector are provided by Rothamsted Research under contract to Defra, and emissions and removals in the LULUCF sector are produced on behalf of BEIS by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The GHG inventory is compiled annually according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 Guidelines4. Methodological improvements account for new data sources, updated guidance from the IPCC, relevant work by organisations such as the European inventory system for certain air pollutants, CORINAIR and specific research programmes sponsored by BEIS, Defra and DfT together with the devolved administrations. All methodological improvements are applied back to 1990 to ensure a consistent time series. The UK operates an established national system for GHG emissions estimation, reporting and archiving. There are a wide range of activities that take place as part of this system. These • Collecting and processing data from a wide range of sources; • Selecting appropriate emissions factors and estimation methods according to • Managing all aspects of inventory quality assurance and quality control including the quality control of raw and processed data and data management tools; • Documentation and archiving; and 3 Ricardo Energy & Environment, The Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR, +44 (0)1235753000, enquiry-ee@ricardo.com. 4 IPCC 2006 Guidelines

16 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report • Prioritisation of methodology and data improvements and completing The methodologies and data sources used to create the GHG inventory are summarised in The NIR, including common reporting format (CRF) tables, is reported to the UNFCCC, and to the European Union Monitoring Mechanism (EUMM), by the required deadline. Further details are provided in Section 1.4 of the NIR, and in subsequent chapters and appendices of the NIR. The national system ensures that the UK will be able to engage with the expert review process under Article 8 of the Kyoto Protocol and the independent assessment report (IAR) Data is collected on an annual basis from national statistics, industry, trade associations and industrial pollution reporting and emissions trading. Emissions factors are reviewed on an annual basis and updated if necessary. A consistent time series of emissions and removal estimates is maintained by recalculations to previous years of the time series where necessary if methods or data have been updated. Each sector specific chapter of the NIR provides details of the process for the recalculation of previously submitted inventory data, and the effects of these recalculations. Chapter 10 of the NIR provides a summary which explains and justifies any re-calculations across the inventory. These approaches are fully compliant with the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol, the UNFCCC, and IPCC good practice. data to the EU under the terms of the EUMM. The complexity (or tier) of the methods used to estimate emissions, and removals, of GHGs is prioritised. Higher tier methods of calculation and country specific emissions factors are used for key source categories in the inventory.
The UK inventory mainly uses higher tier methods and makes extensive use of country The GHG inventory is subject to a range of review procedures. These include an annual internal pre-submission review, where the latest GHG inventory is presented and discussed at the NISC. The inventory is also reviewed each year by the UNFCCC during centralised, desk or in-country reviews, and by the compilers of the EU GHG inventory. Any recommendations made as part of these reviews are used to help guide the development of the inventory. Chapter 10 of the NIR provides brief details of improvements to the NIR and the inventory in response BEIS has an inventory improvement programme that prioritises improvement needs for the inventory and contracts the improvement work as necessary. Needs are prioritised through consultation with stakeholders through the NISC and subsequent work is contracted through a framework contract with key inventory experts. In doing this, the programme aims to ensure completeness of the inventory and reduce its uncertainty. The improvement programme is informed by assessments of uncertainty in the inventory, the identification of key categories, the procedures to ensure quality, and the outcomes of reviews. Section 1.7 of the NIR provides details of the uncertainty analyses; Section 1.5 provides a description of the key categories and the processes to identify them; and, Section 1.6 provides a description of the quality assurance and quality control system, and the inventory improvement programme. Compilation of the UK Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories inventories is conducted by the Inventory Agency Consortium in parallel to the compilation of the UK • Collecting and processing Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories specific data. Activity data estimates are provided for individual Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories by their respective government departments; • Selecting appropriate emissions factors and estimation methods according to IPCC guidance. In most cases, simpler methodologies are chosen for Crown

2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 17 UK National Inventory System – BEIS LULUCF Inventory and KP-LULUCF Inventory Dependencies and Overseas Territories. This is judged to be proportionate given their small contribution to the UK total; • Inventory compilation into an integrated database which holds UK, Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories data in a common format; • Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories specific management of inventory quality assurance and quality control; • Documentation of Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories methods and data sources in internal working documents and in the National Inventory Report (NIR), and archiving UK, Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories data Further detailed information on methods used for compiling the Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories inventories may be found in the most recent UK NIR. These methods undergo improvement via the same improvement programme as the UK inventory. Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories are not represented on the National Inventory Steering Committee (NISC) due to their small contribution to the UK total. The NIR provides some of the additional reporting required under Article 7, paragraph 2 of the Kyoto Protocol. Other sources of information required under Article 7, paragraph 2 are summarised in Annex 8 of the NIR. 18 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report 2.2.4 Kyoto Protocol National Registry The UK National Registry required for the Kyoto Protocol5 is operated and maintained by the Environment Agency6 on behalf of BEIS. The National Registry conforms to the technical standards for data exchange between registry systems as outlined in the IAR7. This also shows the measures that are taken to safeguard data and a description of the database structure. Procedures and security measures are employed to minimise discrepancies and prevent unauthorised changes or errors. Further information can be found in the Standard IARs along with results of test procedures. Information on the registry is publicly available on the Environment Agency website8. Section 14 of the NIR contains further information on the changes in the National Registry. 2.2.5 Geographical coverage used for national and international reporting The UK inventory provides data to assess progress with the UK’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, the UK’s contribution to the EU’s 2020 target, and progress towards domestic targets to reduce GHG emissions. Geographical coverage for these 3 purposes differs to some extent, because of the • The UK’s contribution under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol extended coverage to emissions from the Crown Dependencies of Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man, and the Overseas Territories that have ratified the Convention and Kyoto Protocol (the Cayman Islands, the Falkland Islands, Bermuda, and Gibraltar) – this is also the geographical coverage which is currently reported to the UNFCCC; • The coverage under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is the same as under the first commitment period other than that it excludes Bermuda, which is not participating in this commitment period; • The commitments under the EU’s 2020 target only include the UK and Gibraltar, excluding all Crown Dependencies and other Overseas Territories; and • The UK Climate Change Act (2008) applies only to the UK (see Chapters 3 and 4 for more coverages of the UK, Crown Dependencies and all Overseas Territories including net emissions and removals from LULUCF. Together these total the overall emissions estimates submitted to the UNFCCC. UK emissions trends are described in the next section. The emissions data presented in this chapter, covering the period from 1990 up to and including 2017 come from the UK GHG emissions statistics, published in February 2019. 2.2.6 Geographical coverage used in this report This report presents emissions estimates based on UNFCCC coverage. Tables in this section totals over time and how they break down between the UK, the Crown Dependencies and the 5 UK national registry 6 Environment Agency, PO Box 544, Rotherham, S60 1BY, +44 (0)1925 542594, etregistryhelp@ environment-agency.gov.uk 7 UNFCCC International Assessment Reviews systems/independent-assessment-reports 8 Environment Agency

2.
Information on GHG emissions and trends 19 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 United Kingdom only 794.4 745.6 707.5 683.7 600.9 498.0 473.1 460.2 UK Crown Dependencies 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Overseas Territories (including Gibraltar) 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 Aviation and shipping between UK and 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 Aviation and shipping between Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 798.2 749.6 711.8 688.1 605.3 502.3 477.2 464.5 Change from 1990 0.0% -6.1% -10.8% -13.8% -24.2% -37.1% -40.2% -41.8% *Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1. Values <0.05 are shown as 0.0. 1990-2017 final UK GHG emissions statistics9 and 2012 are due to a number of one-off effects in the series – namely the 2008 recession, which reduced consumption and led to a reduction in emissions; and particularly cold weather in the UK in 2010 and 2012 that resulted in increased emissions from gas for heating. covered by the Kyoto Protocol. They have fallen by approximately 42% over this period. This reduction has been driven by factors such as the move away from coal-fired generation towards the use of natural gas and renewable sources, tighter regulation of landfills, increased utilisation of landfill CH4 in gas flares and engines, and abatement technology in adipic acid 9 Final UK GHG emissions statistics emissions-national-statistics-1990-2017

20 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Final UK GHG Emissions Statistics information summarising the UK’s GHG emissions. More details can be found in the UK’s annual GHG inventory, published in February 201910. 2.4 GHG emissions inventory by gas coverage of the UK, its Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories. The base year for UK emissions when reporting against UNFCCC coverage is 1990. Further detailed information and analysis can be found in the UK NIR. Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 Methane (CH4) 133.0 126.4 108.9 87.4 64.3 53.1 51.5 51.9 Nitrous oxide (N2O) 48.4 38.7 28.6 24.5 21.5 20.4 20.3 20.7 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) 14.4 19.1 9.9 13.1 16.5 16.0 15.2 14.2 Perfluorocarbons (PFC) 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total GHG emissions 798.2 749.6 711.8 688.1 605.3 502.3 477.2 464.5 *Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1. Values <0.05 are shown as 0.0. The Base Year for UNFCCC purposes is 1990 1990-2017 GBR CRF tables11 10 Final UK GHG emissions statistics emissions-national-statistics-1990-2017 11 UNFCCC 1990-2017 Great Britain CRF tables

2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 21 The sections that follow summarise the main factors affecting historical trends by gas. Percentages and data quoted in these sections refer to the full UNFCCC geographical CO2 was the largest share of UK GHG emissions in 2017, making up 81% of the inventory. Net CO2 emissions in 1990, defined as all anthropogenic sources minus removals by sinks, were estimated to be 599.5 mega tonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e), or an estimated 75% of the UK’s total emissions of GHGs. By 2017, CO2 emissions estimates had been reduced by 37% to The main source of CO2 is from combustion of fossil fuels, primarily from the transport sub- sector. This overtook energy supply as the UK’s largest emitting sector in 2016. Power station emissions have contributed the most to decreases in CO2 by an estimated 130.6 MtCO2e across the period, primarily due to the move away from coal-fired generation towards the use of natural gas and renewable sources. Industrial combustion emissions have decreased due to lower fuel use, in part due to improvements in energy efficiency and fuel-switching to gas. The LULUCF sector estimates take account of changes in carbon stocks in forests and soils, based on land use and soil survey data, and on annual planting data from the CH4 is the second largest share of the UK’s GHG emissions by gas. Estimated emissions of CH4 in 1990 were 133.0 MtCO2e, contributing an estimated 17% of the UK’s total emissions of GHGs. By 2017 CH4 emissions estimates had been reduced by 61% to 51.9 MtCO2e, contributing an estimated 11% of UK GHG emissions in that year. The major sources of CH4 include the anaerobic degradation of landfill waste, enteric fermentation and waste management in the agriculture sector, and leakage of natural gas from the distribution network. The overall trend in CH4 emissions is a relatively steady decline driven by a large reduction in landfill and coal mining emissions, though the rate of decline has slowed in recent years. Landfill emissions estimates have decreased by 46 MtCO2e since 1990, due to tighter regulation of landfills and increased utilisation of landfill CH4 in gas flares In 1990, N2O emissions contributed 48.4 MtCO2e, or an estimated 6%, of the UK’s total GHG emissions. By 2017 N2O emissions estimates had been reduced by approximately 57% to 20.7 MtCO2e, contributing an estimated 4% of UK GHG emissions in that year. The industrial processes sector was a major source of N2O emissions in the 1990s. Emissions from this sector have declined significantly following the introduction of abatement technology in adipic acid and nitric acid manufacture and due to plant closures. The largest source of N2O in 2017 is agricultural soils, accounting for an estimated 55% of total N2O emissions. Agricultural soil emissions have declined by an estimated 16% since 1990 due to improvements in farm management practices. 2.4.4 Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and Emissions of the fluorinated or industrial gases (F gases) are small in absolute terms, but of accounting under the Kyoto Protocol, the UK has chosen to use 1995 as the base year

22 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report for emissions of HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3. This is in line with the approach adopted by the majority of EU member states.
Comparisons for F gases will therefore be made against both Emissions estimates of F gases totalled 15.1 MtCO2e in 2017, making up 3% of total emissions. Since 1995 the overall decrease in their emissions has been an estimated 28%, due mainly to the fall in emissions from F gas manufacture, to the installation of abatement equipment at two of the three manufacturers, and to plant closures. Emissions in 2017 were 13% below 1990 when emissions were 17.3 MtCO2e. The majority of F gas emissions in 2017 were from refrigeration and air conditioning, which have increased significantly since 1990 as HFCs replaced ozone depleting substances which were previously used as refrigerants. HFC emissions were 14.2 MtCO2e in 2017. This was only 1% lower than the level of HFCs in 1990. Emissions from industrial processes have been offset by greater use in refrigeration and air conditioning to replace other ozone depleting substances, although these are beginning to be phased out. Since 1995 HFC emissions have reduced by 26%, and HFCs made up 99% of all F gas emissions in 2017. The largest contribution to this sector in 2017 arises from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, which in 2017 contributed an estimated 82% to the overall emissions of HFCs. Emissions arise due to leakage from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment during its manufacture and lifetime. Emissions from aerosols contribute the next largest percentage, estimated to be 12% of overall HFCs emissions. In this category, it is assumed that all the fluid is emitted in the year of manufacture. This category contains mainly industrial aerosols and Perfluorinated compound emissions have declined by an estimated 38% since 1995 and 78% since 1990, to 0.4 MtCO2e in 2017. The main sources of perfluorinated compound emissions in 2017 were electronic equipment and the production of halocarbons. The use of SF6 has most commonly been in magnesium foundries and high voltage switch gear. The level of SF6 emissions has always been small. In 2017 this level was 0.5 MtCO2e, 60% lower than in 1990. In 2017 the main emissions source was insulation and arc quenching of electrical equipment, making up 54% of SF6 emissions. Emissions from NF3 are small, around 531 tCO2e, which is estimated to be a small increase from 1990 levels at around 415 tCO2e. Emissions from this gas are seen in the source. By-source reporting shows emissions from the energy supply industry separately to

2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 23 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 1. Energy 615.3 573.0 566.0 562.5 507.8 416.1 394.6 381.8 Of A.3. Transport 122.5 125.2 130.3 133.6 122.0 122.1 124.6 124.6 3. Agriculture 49.2 48.0 45.9 43.6 40.9 41.2 41.2 41.5 5. Waste 66.9 69.5 63.2 49.4 30.1 21.0 20.4 20.7 Total (net emissions) 798.2 749.6 711.8 688.1 605.3 502.3 477.2 464.5 1990-2017 GBR CRF tables12 Energy was responsible for an estimated 381.8 MtCO2e or 82% of net GHG emissions in 2017. Energy emissions have fallen by 38% since 1990. Just over a quarter of energy emissions in 2017 were from the energy industry, which has seen a 56% decrease in emissions between 1990 and 2017. The restructuring of the electricity supply industry in the 1990s led to a significant decrease in emissions to 1999, as there was a strong move away from coal and oil generation towards use of gas. Between 1999 and 2006 emissions increased due to the volatile and high gas price and a corresponding switching from gas to coal, but there has been a large fall since then, particularly in recent years, as coal has largely been phased out. Emissions data by individual years are available in Annex 1. Further details for each sector can be found in the UK NIR describing factors such as a detailed source description, methodology and sources contributing to the sector. 2.5.1 Energy transport This sub-sector includes emissions from domestic aviation, road transport, diesel railways, domestic shipping (coastal, inland waterways), and aircraft support vehicles. Transport accounted for around 27% of UK GHG emissions in 2017, representing a reduction of 2% since 1990. Road transport is the most significant source of emissions in this sector, with emissions from passenger cars heavily influencing the transport category. Although there has been an increase in both the number of passenger vehicles and the vehicle kilometres travelled, there has been a decrease in emissions from passenger cars due to an increase in vehicle efficiency and lower petrol consumption, outweighing an increase in diesel 2.5.2 Energy other sectors A further 235 MtCO2e or 48% of end-use emissions reductions were seen in other areas of the energy sector. Over three quarters of the emissions in this category in 2017 came from fuel combustion for domestic uses such as heating, cooking, and garden machinery. Since 1990 emissions from domestic combustion have fallen by 42%. This net change was the result of interactions between several much larger individual contributions over the decade. Three factors have had a major a growth in demand for underlying energy services, such as warmer homes, hot water and home entertainment; improvement in energy efficiency; and reduction in the carbon intensity of grid electricity. 24 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The agriculture sector includes emissions from livestock and agricultural soils. There are also small amounts of emissions of CO2 from the breakdown of pesticides. In 2017, end-user GHG emissions from agriculture were estimated to be 41.5 MtCO2e or 9% of total UK GHG emissions. This is a decrease of 16% since 1990 estimates of GHG emissions in this sector, when emissions were estimated to be 49.2 MtCO2e. 2.5.4 Land use, land use change and forestry The UK has moved from being a net source of CO2 from LULUCF activities in 1990 to a net sink for all years since 1991. The size of the net sink has increased over time, from -0.3 MtCO2e in 1991 to -9.9 MtCO2e in 2017.
The land use categories which have the greatest effect on the net LULUCF emissions/removals are forest land (a net sink), cropland (a net source), settlement (a net source) and grassland (a net sink). Forest land is currently a decreasing sink due to the decreasing average age of trees as a consequence of historically low rates of afforestation during the 1990s. Emissions from cropland have decreased by 25% since 1990. Net removals from grassland have increased by 24% since 1990 (i.e. more CO2 has been drawn down by grassland). 2.5.5 Industrial processes and product use The industrial processes sector contains all emissions from industry except for those associated with fuel combustion. Sources include metal production, mineral products (cement and lime) and chemical production. Industrial processes (end-use) emissions have decreased by an estimated 54% since 1990. The largest reductions are from the chemical manufacturing industry, most notably the abatement of N2O emissions from nitric and adipic acid manufacture in response to Integrated Pollution Prevention Control. The waste management sector includes emissions from waste disposed to landfill sites, waste incineration, and the treatment of waste water. Emissions from disposal of waste have decreased by an estimated 69% since 1990, primarily due to the decline in CH4 emissions. This decrease has been realised mainly due to tighter regulation of landfills, through fitting of CH4 recovery systems on landfills, and increasing diversion of biodegradable waste from landfill. There has also been more diversion away from landfills in response to the UK landfill tax and policies to meet the requirements of the EU Landfill Directive. The UK GHG inventory uses error propagation and Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate uncertainties for GWP weighted emissions of all GHGs. The uncertainty estimates Estimated emissions of CO2, which dominate GWP weighted emissions, have a low uncertainty of around 3%. There are much larger uncertainties associated with emissions of other gases. The LULUCF, waste management and agriculture sectors are the sectors with

2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 25 1990 2017 Range of Percentage Range of likely % emissions3 emissions3 Uncertainty4 uncertainty in change change between GWP2 in 2017 2017 emissions between 1990 and 20175 (thousand tonnes emissions 2.5 97.5 1990 and 2.5 97.5 CO2 equivalent) percentile percentile 2017 percentile percentile Methane 25 133,145 51,927 17% 44,414 61,752 -60% -70% -50% Nitrous oxide 298 48,331 20,680 18% 17,585 24,828 -56% -70% -42% HFCs 12 – 14,800 14,394 14,197 9% 12,883 15,490 -1% -17% 19% PFCs 7,390 – 17,340 1,652 372 24% 291 469 -77% -82% -72% 1990-2017 final UK GHG emissions statistics10 1. Figures include emissions for the UK, Crown Dependencies and the Overseas Territories. Uncertainties are not calculated for different geographical coverages but would be expected to be similar. 2. The GWP (Global Warming Potential) of a GHG measures its effectiveness in global warming over 100 years relative to carbon dioxide. The GWPs used in these statistics are from Working Group 1 of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Climate Change 2007. 3. 1990 and 2017 estimates, and the percentage change, are presented as the central estimate from the model. These differ from the 4. Expressed as a percentage relative to the mean value 2017 emissions. Calculated as 0.5*R/E where R is the difference between 2 .5 and 97.5 percentiles and E is the mean. 5. Equivalent to a 95 per cent probability that the percentage change between 1990 and 2017 is between the 2 values shown. Values include uncertainties for Overseas Territories data. 6. CO2 emissions are net emissions. Total emissions minus removals. on total UK GHG emissions, which is 3% in 2017. The analysis of the uncertainties for N2O is particularly difficult because the sources are diverse and there is little data available to form an assessment of the uncertainties in each source. To put this into context the central estimate of N2O emissions was 21 MtCO2e, the uncertainty analysis resulted in a 95% confidence interval The likely percentage change between 1990 and 2017 lies between -39% and -45%, with a central estimate of -42%. The uncertainty in the trend of emissions is smaller than the overall uncertainty on the emissions total in a given year. The uncertainty in the trend between years (as a percentage change) is likely to be less than the uncertainty in a given year because the methodology used is consistent throughout the time-series. Therefore, there is more certainty in the trend in emissions than the absolute emissions themselves. This gives more confidence in assessing compliance with percentage reduction targets, where it is the trend

26 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report 2.6 Changes since the last Biennial Report Since the publication of the UK’s Third Biennial Report in December 201712, various updates and revisions to methodologies have been implemented in the UK’s GHG inventory that have impacted on the time-series of emissions. The most significant changes have been Revision to upstream oil and gas combustion estimates, and method change for Energy from Waste plant using revised UK 1.3% increase to emissions estimates from energy industries New installation data for upstream oil and gas fugitive estimates 1.4% increase to emissions estimates from fugitive emissions Revisions to natural gas use in off-road material 0.5% increase to emissions estimates from manufacturing 48% increase in emissions from non-energy products from fuel Revision to all shipping gas oil and fuel oil activity data and 5% increase to transport emissions Reconciliation of harvest volume and forest age data 157% decrease in emissions from harvested wood products UK GHG Inventory Annual Report for Submission1. A full list of revisions can be found therein in tables 10.1-10.15. The indirect GHGs emitted in significant volumes in the UK consist of nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). Of these, NOX, CO and NMVOC can increase tropospheric ozone concentration and hence radiative forcing. SO2 contributes to aerosol formation in the atmosphere. This is shows emissions from these gases since 1990.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 UNFCCC 1990-2017 GBR CRF tables12 Total emissions of CO in 2017 were 1,559 ktCO2e, and since 1990, emissions have decreased by 79%. A significant part of this reduction was from transport and was due the increased use of three-way catalysts and fuel switching from petrol to diesel cars. 12 The Third Biennial Report was published in Annex 1 of the UK’s Seventh National Communication unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-convention/ national-communications-and-biennial-reports-annex-i-parties/third-biennial-reports-annex-i

2. Information on GHG emissions and trends 27 In 2017, total emissions of NOX were 889 ktCO2e, and since 1990, emissions have decreased by 70%. The majority of this reduction was from the energy supply sector and due to abatement measures on power stations, three-way catalysts fitted to cars and stricter emissions regulations on trucks. For SO2 total emissions in 2017 were 177 ttCO2e, and since 1990 emissions have decreased by 95%. The reductions arise mainly from the energy supply sector due to the increase in the proportion of electricity generated by combined cycle gas turbine stations which are more efficient than conventional coal and oil stations and have negligible SO2 emissions. NMVOCs total emissions for 2017 were 809 ktCO2e, and since 1990, overall emissions have decreased by 72%. The biggest contributor to the decrease was from the solvent and other product use sector. This sector includes paint application, degreasing, dry cleaning and chemical products, manufacture and processing. 2.8 Quality assurance and quality control The current UK GHG inventory complies with the relevant IPCC Guidelines and Good Practice Guidance. The inventory agency is fully accredited to ISO 9001 standards that provide institutional standards that the agency must apply to all projects. Much of the data received by Ricardo Energy & Environment for the UK GHG inventory compilation come from other government departments, agencies, research establishments or consultants working on behalf of UK government or for trade associations. Some of the organisations, such as BEIS, the Office for National Statistics and the British Geological Survey, qualify as the UK’s National Statistical Agencies and abide by strict statistical quality assurance and quality control standards. Other organisations, such as the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, which provides the LULUCF estimates, and the Environment Agency, which provides regulated point source emissions data, supply important datasets for the inventory and have their own quality assurance and quality control systems. Whilst these organisations have their own quality assurance and quality control systems, Ricardo Energy & Environment is responsible for co-ordinating inventory wide quality assurance and quality control activities relating to the submitted datasets. In addition, Ricardo Energy & Environment works continuously with organisations supplying data to the GHG inventory to encourage them to demonstrate their own levels of quality assurance and quality control that comply with either IPCC Good Practice Guidance or the UK’s Official The inventory has a developed quality assurance and quality control plan, which is described in section 1.6 of the NIR. This plan includes procedures to ensure the timely reporting of the NIR and CRF tables, and the archiving of all relevant information. The quality assurance and quality control plan oversees the calculation of GHG estimates and reporting to the UNFCCC and EUMM, and calculation of estimates and reporting to UK National Statistics. The key objective of the quality assurance and quality control plan is to ensure that the estimates in the GHG inventory are of a suitably high quality, and in achieving this, meet the principles of transparency, completeness, consistency, comparability and accuracy which govern the generation of all GHG inventories. Specific responsibilities have been assigned to the different quality assurance (review) and quality control (checking) activities and to different roles within the compilation and reporting process. A quality assurance and quality control manager co-ordinates all quality assurance and quality control activities. The quality assurance and quality control plan is maintained by the inventory’s quality assurance and quality control manager. 28 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The plan defines the specific quality objectives and quality assurance and quality control activities required in undertaking the compilation and reporting of GHG estimates. The plan also assigns roles and responsibilities to inventory staff, and provides a timeline for completion of quality assurance and quality control activities. To verify the emissions levels and trends reported in the GHG inventory, BEIS maintains a research programme of high-frequency, high-precision measurements of atmospheric trace gases at the Mace Head research station, in the Republic of Ireland. Three additional UK- based monitoring stations were also established as part of BEIS’ GHG inventory verification Angus Tower, Angus, Scotland; Tacolneston Head, Norfolk; and Ridge Hill, Herefordshire. Angus Tower was replaced by Bilsdale, Yorkshire in 2015. The observations enable estimates of UK emissions to be derived using an inversion modelling technique, known as InTEM, which provides an important cross-check for the GHG inventory. The UK is one of very few countries verifying its inventory in this manner. 3. Quantified economy-wide emission The UK has committed to both international and domestic emission reduction targets. The UK Climate Change Act (2008) established the world’s first legally binding framework for national emission reduction targets. The UK’s carbon budgets are legally binding limits on the total amount of GHG that the UK can emit for a given five-year period. As an EU Member State, the UK participates in the EU’s Convention pledge to the UNFCCC to reduce GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels13. The UK is also jointly committed to a similar target14 under the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol15. To reach this target, an effort sharing agreement distributes the effort required amongst The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016 and was ratified by the UK on 18 November 2016. Parties to the Paris Agreement are required to prepare, communicate and maintain successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In 2015, the EU published its NDC for the period 2021 to 2030.
This commits the EU and its Member States, including the UK, to at least a 40% reduction in domestic GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 Once the UK has left the EU, it will have its own NDC. This is without prejudice to future relationship negotiations on climate with the EU. The UK will increase its international ambition In 2008, the UK Climate Change Act established the world’s first long-term legally binding framework to reduce GHG emissions, committing the UK to reducing its emissions by at least 80% below the 1990 baseline level by 205017. In June 2019, the Act was amended to commit the UK to achieving a net zero GHG target by 2050. The UK was the first major economy to enshrine such a commitment in law. This followed the publication of the IPCC’s special report on global warming of 1.5°C in October 2018, after which the UK Government commissioned the Committee on Climate Change 13 EU 2020 Convention pledge (2011) 14 Doha Amendment pdf. This amendment has not yet come into force. 15 Doha pdf. This amendment has not yet come into force. 16 Decision No 406/2009/EC 17 UK Climate Change Act 2008

30 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report (CCC) to provide advice on the implications of the Paris Agreement for the UK’s long-term emissions reduction targets18. In May 2019, the CCC recommended that the UK legislate as soon as possible to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. The UK Climate Change Act also introduced carbon budgets, which cap emissions over successive five-year periods and must be set 12 years in advance. The first five carbon budgets cover the period from 2008-32, with the sixth carbon budget due to be set by mid-2021. The Act also established the CCC – the independent statutory body that advises the UK Government on climate change mitigation and adaptation, including emissions targets. Each carbon budget is split into • Traded sector, which covers power and heavy industry and for which the limit is based on the UK’s share of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) limit for the relevant period; and • Non-traded sector, which covers everything else, for example road transport, agriculture To calculate UK performance against the carbon budgets, data is taken from the UK GHG Inventory. These include emissions from LULUCF. The data are then adjusted to take into account removals of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks associated with LULUCF activity. More information on how the UK monitors progress on these targets can be found in Chapter 2. The result of this calculation gives net UK emissions, which are further • Carbon units which have been bought in from overseas by government and others to offset UK emissions (“credits”), thereby reducing the net UK carbon account; and • UK carbon units that have been sold to a third party outside the UK or otherwise disposed of (“debits”), which increase the net UK carbon account as the recipient can use these units to offset their own emissions and it would lead to double counting if they were also used to offset UK emissions. The traded sector of the UK’s net account is the same as the UK’s share of the EU ETS cap. The detailed rules for these calculations are contained in the Carbon Accounting Regulations 2009. International aviation and shipping emissions are not currently included within the first 18 UK Committee on Climate Change, Net Zero – The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming (2019) 19 BEIS guidance, UK legislation for carbon budgets

3. Quantified economy-wide emission reduction target 31 Carbon budget level (MtCO2e) 3,018 2,782 2,544 1,950 1,725 of which traded 1,233 1,078 985 690 590 of which non-traded 1,785 1,704 1,559 1,260 1,135 Base year emissions are revised each year, so the percentage reductions against carbon budgets are subject to change. The UK has carried forward 88Mt of overperformance from the second carbon budget, which changes the third carbon budget level to 2,632Mt (equivalent to a 34% reduction on base year emissions). However, the UK has no intention of using this overperformance to meet the third carbon budget – it will act solely as a contingency against changes in the base year emissions and will be released once it is clear that it The base year for carbon budgets consists of emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O in 1990, and of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in 1995. It also includes an allowance for net emissions from the LULUCF sector in 1990. The baseline is revised annually due to improvements in The geographical coverage of these targets comprises UK territory only (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and not the UK’s Crown Dependencies or The UK Climate Change Act permits the UK to use ‘flexibilities’, such as surplus from previous carbon budgets or the purchase of good quality international carbon credits, to meet carbon budgets. Before using flexibilities, the Government must obtain and take into account the advice of the CCC and consult the devolved administrations. As of October 2019, the UK has not used international market-based mechanisms to achieve carbon budgets. Five carbon budgets have been set to date, putting in place caps on GHG emissions from 2008 out to 2032. The Government anticipates receiving advice from the CCC on the level of the sixth carbon budget (2033-2037) in late 2020, and the Government is legally required to Details about the UK’s progress against carbon budgets can be found in Chapter 4. 32 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Under both the EU’s Convention pledge to the UNFCCC and the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, the EU and its Member States are jointly committed to achieving a 20% reduction of GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. 3.3.1 EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package and the Kyoto Protocol In 2009 the EU established sub-targets through the 2020 climate and energy package20, which underpins the implementation of the 2020 target under the Convention.
A 20% reduction of total GHG emissions from 1990 levels is equivalent to a 14% reduction compared to 2005 levels. This 14% reduction objective is divided between the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) sectors. These two sub-targets • A 21% reduction in emissions from sectors covered by the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, which includes emissions from the power and industrial sectors, and since 2012 has included international aviation within the European Economic Area; and • Around 10% reduction from ESD sectors compared to 2005, including buildings, agriculture, waste and transport not covered by the EU ETS. The ESD target is distributed between Member States to reflect national circumstances, requirements for economic growth and scope for further emissions reductions. Each member state has a national emission target for non-ETS sectors for 2020, which have been translated into binding quantified Annual Emission Allocations (AEAs) for the period 2013–2020. Under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 2013 to 2020, the EU has a collective target to reduce its emissions by 20% relative to 1990 levels by 2020. Member State emissions from the traded sector are managed centrally by the Union and are not counted towards individual Member State targets, as set out in the EU’s joint fulfilment agreement for the Doha Amendment. Therefore, only the ESD sectors and a subset of LULUCF emissions are counted towards EU Member State targets under the second commitment period of the the distinction between EU and UK international targets for 2020. All 2020 targets have been set using Global Warming Potential values from the IPCC’s fourth Assessment Report (AR4). 3.3.2 UK targets under the Effort Sharing Directive and Kyoto Protocol Under the ESD, the UK has a target of reducing its total emissions to 16% below the 2005 level by 2020 for non-ETS sectors. The UK’s Annual Emission Allocations were initially calculated21, and subsequently adjusted22, to follow a declining path from 358.7 MtCO2e in 2013, to 327.1 MtCO2e in 2020, giving an allocated emission level for the entire commitment period of 2,743.4 MtCO2e. However, the AEAs for 2017-2020 were further adjusted in 2017 following the application of new guidelines for national GHG inventory reporting, leading to a revised total of 2,830.5 MtCO2e.23 24 20 EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package 21 European Commission Decision 2013/162/EU 22 Initial AEA calculations were revised in Commission Decision 2013/634/EU due to changes in the scope of the EU 23 European Commission Decision (EU) 2017/1471 TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2017.209.01.0053.01.ENG 24 Updated ESD allocations for the UK en&esdRegistry=GB&esdYear=&search=Search&currentSortSettings=esdRegistry+ASC&resultList. 3. Quantified economy-wide emission reduction target 33 The initial allocated emissions total for the non-ETS sectors in the UK (2,743.4 MtCO2e) was used to calculate the UK’s Assigned Amount for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The calculation of the UK’s Assigned Amount is set out in UK’s Initial Report for the second commitment period, and results in an Assigned Amount of 2,744,937,332 assigned amount units (AAUs) where one AAU is equivalent to one tCO2e25. For the Kyoto Protocol, the UK’s base year for assessing CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions is 1990, and the UK has chosen to use 1995 as the base year for emissions of the F HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3. This is in line with most other EU member states, and in accordance with Article 3.8 of the Kyoto Protocol. main differences in geographical, aviation and LULUCF coverage. Target EU target under the Convention EU target under the Kyoto EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package Target year or period 2020 2020 (Second commitment period Emission target 20% reduction on base 20% reduction on base year levels ESD (non-traded) 10% reduction EU ETS (traded) 21% reduction Base year 1990 1990, but subject to flexibility used as base year for F-gases or 1990 for overall emission reduction target; 2005 for targets broken down into Aviation and shipping Aviation in the scope of practice total outgoing flight International shipping excluded. International aviation excluded. International shipping excluded. ESD aviation and international shipping excluded, domestic shipping EU ETS domestic aviation and aviation within the EEA included, Gases covered CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, ESD CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, EU ETS CO2, N2O, CF4 and C2F6 Sectors included Energy (including Transport), Product Use, agriculture, waste, Annex A of Kyoto Protocol (Energy including Transport, Industrial Transport (except aviation), buildings, non-ETS industry, agriculture EU Power & heat generation, energy-intensive industry sectors, aviation (Annex 1 of ETS directive). GWPs used IPCC AR4 IPCC AR4 IPCC AR4 25 UK Kyoto Protocol Initial Report for the second commitment period (2017) reports/initial_reports_under_the_kyoto_protocol/second_commitment_period_2013 -2020/application/zip/

34 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Target UK target under EU ESD (ESD) UK target under the Kyoto Protocol (CP2) Target year or period 2013-2020 2020 (Second commitment period 2013-2020)26 Emission target 16% reduction on 2005 emission levels for non- ETS sectors (excluding LULUCF) 2,744,937,332 AAUs over commitment period; 20% reduction on base year levels by 2020, jointly fulfilled with Base year 2005. Base year estimate for UK’s ESD 1990 for CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1995 for F-gases. UK’s base year estimate of the reported Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases for the second commitment period is 803.2 MtCO2e.28 UK + Gibraltar UK and UK Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories Aviation and shipping Aviation and international shipping excluded. Domestic aviation included. International aviation excluded. Domestic shipping included. International shipping excluded. Gases covered CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3 Sectors included Transport (except aviation), buildings, non- ETS industry, agriculture (except forestry) and Annex A of Kyoto Protocol (Energy including Transport, Industrial Processes and Product Use, agriculture, waste), LULUCF according to Kyoto Protocol accounting rules Included in UK ESD sectors and KP-LULUCF. 3.3.3 UK targets under the EU ETS and Kyoto Protocol The EU ETS was established in 2003 by Directive 2003/87/EC and is the largest ETS in the world. It is currently in Phase III (2013-2020).
The EU ETS incentivises participants from the EU Member States and the three participating non-EU Member States (Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) to reduce emissions by placing a cap on total EU GHG emissions from the power and industrial sectors and enabling trading of allowances to ensure emissions reductions are delivered cost efficiently. The Phase III cap reduces the number of available allowances by 1.74% each year to deliver an overall reduction of 21% below 2005 verified For 2017, the UK notional cap for stationary operators was 164,402,030 tCO2eq, of which 136,800,098 units were surrendered by UK operators29. For information on the UK’s EU ETS net trading position, see Chapter 4 on progress in achievement of emission reduction targets. 3.3.4 Coverage differences targets and IPCC reporting requirements The scope of UK GHG emissions varies according to the differing requirements under the Convention. For aviation, the scope of the EU ETS is largely additional to the IPCC inventory and the Kyoto Protocol coverage, as the EU ETS includes CO2 emissions from flights between EU member states, emissions which are otherwise included in the ‘Memo International Aviation Bunkers’. Domestic aviation and shipping within the UK are included within all targets 26 The Doha Amendment, stating the targets for the Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol, has 27 Base year for ESD emissions from ESD 2018 dataset, European Environment Agency europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/esd-1 28 Base year level for UK Kyoto Protocol target for the 2nd commitment period based on 2016 inventory, as indicated in the UK’s initial report. 29 UK Annual Statement of Emissions for 2017 statement-of-emissions-for-2017

3. Quantified economy-wide emission reduction target 35 The UK’s EU target only applies to the UK and, of its Overseas Territories, Gibraltar. As the UK’s Crown Dependencies and its other Overseas Territories that have signed up to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol are not in the EU, the EU targets do not apply to these regions. Geographical coverage under the Kyoto Protocol includes all UK Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies that have signed up to the Convention, excluding Bermuda for the Second Commitment Period (CP2). LULUCF is excluded from the EU ESD and EU Convention targets, but included in the IPCC inventory and in accordance with Articles 3.3, 3.4 and 3.7 under the Kyoto Protocol. 36 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 4 . 1 Progress towards achieving UK targets This section outlines the UK’s progress towards achieving its quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets at the national, EU, and international level. The UK Government has clearly defined policies to reduce emissions to meet its carbon budgets. Based on the data published in the latest Energy and Efficiencies Projections (EEP)30, the UK met the first (2008 to 2012) carbon budget with a headroom of 36 MtCO2e, representing a 25% reduction below 1990 levels; and the second (2013 to 2017) carbon budget with a headroom of 384 MtCO2e, representing a 31% reduction below 1990 levels. The UK is projected to meet the third carbon budget (2018 to 2022) with headroom of 88 MtCO2e, which corresponds to a 37% reduction below 1990 levels. There are projected shortfalls against the fourth (2023 to 2027) and fifth (2028 to 2032) carbon budgets of 139 and 245 MtCO2e respectively. However, this means the UK is on track to deliver over 90% of the required performance against 1990 levels for these budgets. The CCC will advise BEIS on setting carbon budgets in line with the UK Government’s net zero emissions by 2050 target. The CCC’s advice on the level of the sixth carbon budget is The UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy31, published in October 2017, sets out possible pathways for meeting the fifth carbon budget. Key policies and proposals • Improving business and industry efficiency accounting for 17% of UK emissions; • Improving homes accounting for 15% of UK emissions; • Accelerating the Shift to Low Carbon Transport accounting for 27% of UK Emissions; • Delivering Clean, Smart, Flexible Power accounting for 24% of UK Emissions; and • Enhancing the Benefits and value of Natural Resources accounting for 14% of 30 BEIS Energy and Emissions Projections, published May 2019 publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2018 31 BEIS Clean Growth Strategy, published October 2017 32 Emissions statistics from BEIS 2017 UK Final GHG Statistics (2019)

38 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The UK Government carried forward a small proportion of overperformance from the second carbon budget. This carry forward is 88 MtCO2e out of a total overperformance of 384 MtCO2e, or around 3% of the second carbon budget. The decision to carry forward is a technical one that does not impact the Government’s commitment to taking strong domestic action to reduce GHG emissions. The UK Government has no intention of using this overperformance to meet the third carbon budget. Instead, the carry forward will act solely as a contingency against changes in the baseline which carbon budgets are compared with. This will be released once it is clear that it will not be needed to address any technical changes in the baseline. The UK Government will decide whether to use flexibilities to help meet the fourth and fifth carbon budgets, following consultations with devolved administrations, and after obtaining and considering The Environment (Wales) Act 201633 requires Welsh Ministers to reduce emissions in Wales by at least 80% in 2050. Regulations passed by the National Assembly for Wales in December 2018 set Wales’ 2020 target at 27%, 2030 target at 45% and 2040 target at 67%. The first two carbon budgets (2016 to 2020 and 2021 to 2025) were set in legislation in The Welsh Government has accepted the CCC’s recommendation to increase Wales’s 2050 target to 95% and has requested the CCC’s advice on how this affects the interim targets and carbon budgets set in 2018. The Welsh Government will ask the National Assembly to amend the existing targets and budgets in 2020.
The most recent data estimates that emissions totalled 42.2 MtCO2e in 2017, a fall of 25% compared to base year emissions.34 This represents a 13% decrease compared to 2016, reflecting the volatile nature of Welsh emissions. The CCC believes that “if Wales can maintain this progress it will be on track to meet its first carbon budget.”35 The plan for the first Welsh carbon budget, Prosperity for A Low Carbon Wales, was published in March 2019 and contains 100 policies and proposals from all emissions sectors 4.1.3 Scottish Government target The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 amends the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, raising the ambition of Scotland’s domestic targets in line with the Paris Agreement. This sets in law Scotland’s target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2045, and interim targets of 56%, 75% and 90% reductions in emissions by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, relative to a 1990/1995 baseline. Scotland sets annual targets (for all other years from now to the net zero target date), in contrast to the five-yearly carbon budgets set by the UK and Welsh Governments. 33 Environment (Wales) Act 2016 34 Devolved Administrations – Greenhouse Gas Reports, National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (2019). The baseline year for each GHG is 1990 (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) or 1995 (HFCs, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride, nitrogen trifluoride) 35 The Committee on Climate Change (2019) Reducing UK emissions – 2019 Progress report to Parliament 36 Prosperity for A Low Carbon Wales, Welsh Government (2019) environmentcountryside/climatechange/emissions/prosperity-for-all-a-low-carbon-wales

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 39 The most recent statistics show continued year on year progress in reducing Scotland’s GHG emissions, which were down 3.3% between 2016 and 201737. Scotland has reduced its emissions by 47% between 1990 and 2017. Three of the four most recently reported annual targets for emissions reduction under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 were met. The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan38 was published in February 2018, setting out proposals and policies, across all sectors of the economy, for reducing GHG emissions to 2032. The Scottish Government is updating the Plan to reflect the increased target ambition of the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. In November 2018 the European Commission confirmed each Member State’s performance against ESD for 201639. UK GHG emissions for 2016 under the ESD were confirmed to be 333.9 MtCO2e, 11.3 MtCO2e below the UK’s annual limit for 2016 of 345.2 MtCO2e, meaning that the UK met its fourth annual target in the period. Provisional estimates indicate that GHG emissions for 2017 under the ESD will also be below the annual emissions limit, by around UK and Gibraltar, 2013 -2017 MtCO2e Total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF and NF3 (A) 566.5 524.0 503.5 482.8 470.5 Total verified emissions from stationary installations under the EU ETS (B) 225.3 197.9 175.9 147.4 137.0 CO2 emissions from civil aviation (C) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 Total ESD emissions (D = A – B – C) 339.5 324.4 326.0 333.9 331.9 Annual emissions allocation (E) 358.7 354.2 349.7 345.2 360.4 Difference (E – D) 19.3 29.8 23.7 11.3 28.5 Phase II of the EU ETS coincided with the first Kyoto Commitment Period (2008-12). During this period each Member State held a specific quantity of allowances based on their EU-approved National Allocation Plan (NAP). This resulted in net “sales” or “purchases” of emissions allowances reported from UK installations depending on whether total emissions were below or above the UK’s Phase II allocation41. 37 Scottish greenhouse gas emissions 2017 38 Climate Change third report on proposals and policies 2018-2032 scottish-governments-climate-change-plan-third-report-proposals-policies-2018/ 39 GHG Emissions under the ESD 2018 dataset, European Environment Agency 40 1990- 41 Note that a negative net value indicates that the reported emissions from UK installations in the EU ETS were below the cap, i.e. there was a net selling or withholding of units by UK installations. This means that emissions are either emitted elsewhere or emitted at a later stage, so they may not be used to offset UK emissions. The opposite occurs when reported emissions from EU ETS installations exceed the cap. 40 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The third phase of the EU ETS (2013-20) builds upon the previous two phases and has been significantly revised to make a greater contribution to tackling climate change. Amongst other changes to the operating rules, the system shifted away from NAPs in favour of an EU-wide cap on the number of available allowances across Member States. In the absence of a UK-specific allocation plan, a notional cap has been estimated for the purpose of calculating carbon budget performance. Further details of this methodology are laid out in the Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 At the end of Phase II of the EU ETS, the UK was required to cancel all allowances which have not been either issued or auctioned by that point. As a consequence, allowances totalling 4.5 MtCO2e were cancelled in 2012. These cancelled allowances have the effect of reducing the overall cap for the whole of Phase II. For presentational purposes, this amount has been distributed evenly over the 5 years 2008-2012, effectively reducing the cap by 0.9 MtCO2e each year. Domestic aviation emissions are included in carbon budgets accounting from 2013. From 2013, the EU ETS entered its third phase, which will end in 2020. Changes to the operating rules in this period mean that Member States no longer receive a national cap as the ETS operates at installation level. Therefore a ‘notional’ cap is estimated for the purpose of Values in brackets indicate negative numbers or sales. 4.1.5 UK progress towards Kyoto Protocol Targets 4.1.5.1 First Commitment Period (2008-2012) The UK met its emissions reductions target for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
Under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-12), the EU and its Member States, Iceland and Norway collectively made a commitment to reduce GHG emissions across the EU by 8 per cent on 1990 levels by 2012 through the EU ETS. As part of this, the UK undertook to reduce total GHG emissions by 12.5 per cent below base year levels over the five-year period 2008-1243. 42 Emissions statistics from BEIS 2017 UK Final GHG Statistics (2019) 43 European Council Decision (2002/358/EC)

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 41 UK emissions of the basket of GHGs covered by the Kyoto Protocol were an average 600.6 MtCO2e per year (exclusive of emissions trading) over the first commitment period (2008-12), 23 per cent lower than base year emissions44. 4.1.5.2 Second Commitment Period (2013-2020) The UK has ratified the Doha Amendment, but it has not yet come into force. However, the UK is making good progress with regard to the target for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in terms of the overall budget. 4.2 Domestic institutional arrangements In accordance with the UK Climate Change Act, a carbon budget must be made by order, subject to affirmative resolution procedure45. Before laying a draft statutory instrument containing an order setting a carbon budget, the UK Government must take into account the advice of the CCC as well as any representations made by the devolved administrations. A carbon budget must then be set with a view to meeting the 2050 target and complying with European and international obligations of the UK. The UK Government must lay before Parliament an Annual Statement of Emissions by 31 March in the second year following that to which it relates. It must also prepare and lay a Final Statement for each budgetary period by 31 May in the second year following the end of the period to which it relates, setting out, among other things, the final amount for the period of UK emissions, removals and net emissions of each GHG. In June each year and in July in the second year after the end of a budgetary period, the CCC must lay before Parliament a report setting out its views on progress against the carbon budgets and 2050 target, to which the UK Government is required to respond by October. In the second year after the end of a budgetary period the report will also set out the CCC’s views on how the UK performed on meeting the last carbon budget. The UK Government is required to publish a plan explaining the policies and proposals to meet carbon budgets after setting each one. The most recent of these plans was the Clean Growth Strategy, published in October 201746. This set out ambitious policies and proposals out to 2032 to reduce emissions across the economy and promote clean growth. BEIS holds responsibility for strategic oversight of climate and energy policy across the UK Government, promoting and protecting the UK Government’s policy interests. Climate change policy is devolved to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, although the UK Government retains control over other policy areas that deliver emissions reductions. The approach taken by each government will differ, drawing on the range of policies at their disposal. Information specific to each devolved administration are included throughout this chapter. NI contributes towards the UK targets as set under the UK Climate Change Act and there is no Northern Ireland statutory target legislated for. Tackling climate change and demonstrating leadership through action is the responsibility of every part of central, devolved, and local, as well as the wider public sector. Some policies are the responsibility of BEIS directly, while others are the responsibility of 44 Record of UK base year emissions data/file/345163/base_year_tables.xlsx 45 More information on the affirmative resolution procedure can be found information/glossary/affirmative-procedure/ 46 BEIS Clean Growth Strategy (2017)

42 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report the Treasury (HMT), Department for Transport (DfT), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Department for International Development (DFID). In October 2019, it was announced that a new UK Cabinet Committee on Climate Change would be established, chaired by the UK Prime Minister. This will drive further action across government to protect the environment, reduce emissions and improve air quality, and hold departments to account for actions to combat climate change. It will bring together ministers responsible for domestic and international climate change policy across government. At official level, BEIS coordinates UK Government policy on climate change through inter- departmental committees chaired by BEIS. As described above, the UK Government has a rigorous monitoring and reporting framework to track progress against its domestic and international targets. The most recent reports • An annual statement of emissions which shows what emissions were in the past year and where they came from – most recently the ‘Annual statement of emissions for 2017’47; • An annual report from the independent CCC on progress against carbon budgets – most recently ‘Reducing UK emissions – 2019 Progress Report to Parliament’48; • The UK Government response to the CCC’s annual progress report, which also brings together reporting against the Clean Growth Strategy on the Emissions Intensity Ratio, metrics and actions – most recently ‘Leading on clean government response to the CCC 2019 progress report to Parliament – Reducing UK emissions’49; and • Updated EEP, which assess the expected impact of policies on future emissions trends – most recently ‘Updated 2018’50. The UK Climate Change Act also requires the UK to produce a UK Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years. The assesses current and future risks to and opportunities for the UK from climate change. In addition, the UK Climate Change Act requires the UK Government to produce a National Adaptation Programme for England to respond to the risk assessment.
Finally, the UK Climate Change Act gives powers to the UK Government to require certain organisations to report on how they are adapting to climate change through the Adaptation Reporting Power. The Environment (Wales) Act 201651 requires Welsh Ministers to reduce emissions in Wales by at least 80% in 2050. The Act also requires Welsh Ministers to set interim emissions reduction targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 and establish a system of carbon budgeting that together create an emissions reduction pathway to the 2050 target. The Act requires Welsh Ministers to publish a plan for meeting each carbon budget. 47 BEIS Annual statement of emissions for 2017 (2019) statement-of-emissions-for-2017 48 CCC Reducing UK emissions – 2019 Progress Report to Parliament (2019) publication/reducing-uk-emissions-2019-progress-report-to-parliament/ 49 Defra and BEIS Committee on Climate Change’s 2019 progress government responses (2019) 50 BEIS Updated energy and emissions 2018 updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2018 51 Environment (Wales) Act 2016

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 43 Welsh Ministers must lay interim targets and carbon budgets in the National Assembly for Wales. Before doing so, they must obtain, and have regard to, advice from the CCC. Welsh Ministers must lay a statement in the National Assembly no later than two years after the end of each budget, outlining the final amount of net Welsh emissions and the number of offsets used. If the carbon budget has not been met, Welsh Ministers must within three months lay before the National Assembly a report setting out proposals and policies to compensate for the excess emissions in later budgetary periods. Welsh Ministers must also lay a statement in the Assembly within two years of each interim target year, outlining the final amount of net Welsh emissions for the target year, the number of offsets used for the year and why the target has been met or missed. Within six months of a statement from the Welsh Ministers, the CCC is required to publish a progress report on the budget or target in question. Additionally, each summer the CCC publishes a progress report on the performance of the UK as a whole against the UK carbon budgets, which may include specific recommendations for Wales. Where appropriate, the Welsh Government contributes to the wider UK Government response each autumn. Since publishing Prosperity for A Low Carbon Wales and declaring a climate emergency the Welsh Government has established a permanent Cabinet Sub-Committee to provide impetus on decarbonisation from the ministerial level. The Sub-Committee’s role is to coordinate action, raise ambition and make key decisions from a cross-Government perspective on the actions needed to meet the statutory decarbonisation obligations. Its membership includes seven ministers and four deputy ministers, reflecting the shared responsibility of meeting the climate challenge. At official level, the Decarbonisation and Energy Division, which is part of the Economy, Skills and Natural Resources Group, manage the emissions reduction framework and production of the statutory plans. They also provide the secretariat to the Cabinet Sub-Committee and maintain a Portfolio Board of Directors from all departments to support Ministers. In April 2019, Scotland’s First Minister declared a global climate emergency, and the Scottish Government is responding urgently to this challenge. Strategic delivery plans for meeting the Scottish government targets are required by law at least every five years. The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan52 was published in February 2018, setting out proposals and policies, across all sectors of the economy, for reducing GHG emissions in every year to 2032. The current Plan will be updated in 2020 to reflect the increased ambition of the new targets set through the 2019 Act. Just Transition principles are embedded in the legislation, which must be considered when setting out plans Annual reports are required to be laid in the Scottish Parliament stating whether annual emission reduction targets have been met. In addition, progress against the policies in the Climate Change Plan, including the status of their implementation, is assessed through annual monitoring reports. The first set – a baseline – of such monitoring reports was published in October 201853. Future monitoring reports will then be produced under the terms of the 2019 Act, with annual sets of sector by sector reports from May 2021 onwards. The UK CCC is also tasked with producing an annual Scottish report, providing an independent perspective on progress towards targets, to which the Scottish Government must respond. 52 Climate Change third report on proposals and policies 2018-2032 scottish-governments-climate-change-plan-third-report-proposals-policies-2018/ 53 Climate Change monitoring report 2018

44 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report A Cabinet Sub-Committee on Climate Change, chaired by the Cabinet Secretary for the Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform, oversaw the development of the current Climate Change Plan, ensuring a cross-government approach. Scottish Ministers worked collaboratively to develop proposals and policies for emissions reductions across sectors in ways that maximise opportunities and minimise costs. Alongside the Scottish Government, local government, other public bodies, the private sector, the third sector, communities, households and individuals all have important roles to play in delivering the Climate A Big Climate Conversation was held over summer 2019, engaging with individuals, the private and public sectors about the roles that everyone needs to play in ending Scotland’s contribution to climate change. A new Climate Change Citizens’ Assembly will make recommendations to Ministers on how Scotland’s net zero transition should be achieved. A National Forum on Climate Change will be established in 2020, after the update to the Climate Change Plan is published, to bring together Scotland’s businesses, public sector, communities and individuals so that everyone can be involved in the continued conversation Action on the global climate emergency and a Green New Deal are central to the First Minister’s Programme for Government54.
This sets out new measures across all parts of the Scottish economy, with a few examples • Investing over £500 million in improved bus infrastructure; • Making the transition to net zero the primary mission of the Scottish National • Aiming to decarbonise scheduled flights within Scotland by 2040; and • A National Planning Framework and future public infrastructure programme to lay the foundations on which we will build low and zero carbon homes, communities The Scottish National Investment Bank and Scotland’s Infrastructure Commission will also support the transition to net zero. Scotland is committed to delivering net zero by 2045, both through devolved policy and by working with other administrations in the UK. Net zero advice from the UK CCC, provided jointly to the Scottish, Welsh and UK governments in May 2019, said that “Scotland cannot deliver net-zero emissions by 2045 through devolved policy alone.”55 4.2.4 Northern Ireland Executive Northern Ireland is contributing to the achievement of the UK net zero target of a 100% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 and the UK carbon budgets. From 1990 to 2017 there has been a reduction in Northern Ireland emissions of 17.9%56. 54 Protecting Scotland’s the Government’s Programme for Scotland 2019-2020 publications/protecting-scotlands-future-governments-programme-scotland-2019-20/ 55 UK Committee on Climate Change, Net Zero – The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming (2019) 56 Northern Ireland GHG emissions 2017 ghg-inventory-statistical-bulletin-2017.pdf

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 45 In the absence of a functioning Executive and with no strategic-level Programme for Government in place, the Northern Ireland Civil Service (NICS) has been working to a cross- departmental Outcomes Delivery Plan57 (ODP) as a basis for delivering public services. Based on the framework of outcomes developed by the Executive formed after the election in May 2016, the ODP sets out the headline actions that departments have put in place to progress towards the former ministers’ agreed objective of “Improving wellbeing for all – by tackling disadvantage and driving economic growth”. The focus on Outcomes and measures of performance based on wellbeing and improvements to people’s lives is helping identify new ways of working which are forward- looking and cross-cutting. In support of the new approach, new monitoring and reporting webpages are being introduced on the Northern Ireland Executive website to assess progress and to provide dynamic messaging to highlight unique challenges and to encourage greater stakeholder engagement and more collaborative working in pursuit of each Outcome. One of the 12 Outcomes contained in the Plan is to make Northern Ireland a place where “We live and work sustainably – protecting the environment”. Six indicators are used to measure progress towards this Outcome, including one for GHG emissions as reported on in the Northern Ireland GHG Inventory statistical bulletin. The Department for the Economy (DfE) is the lead department responsible for providing the strategic vision for the future of energy in NI. The 2010 Strategic Energy Framework58 set the direction to 2020 and DfE is currently progressing the development of a new longer-term energy strategy to cover the period 2020 to 2050, subject to ministerial approval. The future directions for renewable energy and energy efficiency policy are expected to form integral parts of the overall strategy. The Northern Ireland Executive’s target of 40% of electricity 30 June 2019 standing at 44%.59 To increase recycling and reduce waste to landfill, a number of initiatives have been taken forward. A Northern Ireland Communications Advisory Panel has been set-up with central government, local government and Waste and Resources Action Programme to deliver timely and focused communications campaigns to build public awareness, understanding and confidence in council led recycling. Communications has been particularly effective in supporting the implementation of the Food Waste Regulations (Northern Ireland) 201560 and increasing kerbside food waste recycling. During 2018/19 £3 million of capital financial assistance was provided to local councils to This has been followed up by the launch of the three-year Household Waste Recycling Collaborative Change Programme in June 2019, providing local councils with £23 million of capital financial assistance to improve recycling services and infrastructure. This funding focuses on improving quality of recyclates, as well as quantity, to realise their value for the economy and environment, and support a circular economy. The initiatives delivered in the last three years have seen the Northern Ireland household waste recycling rate increase by 57 Northern Ireland Executive Office, Outcomes Delivery Plan 2018/19 publications/outcomes-delivery-plan-201819 58 2010 Strategic Energy Framework 59 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Energy, Electricity consumption and renewable generation in Northern year ending June 2019 economy/Issue-12-Electricity-Consumption-and-Renewable-Generation-in-Northern%20Ireland-July-2018- to- 60 Food Waste Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2015

46 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report nearly 8 percentage points to a provisional estimate of 50.6% for the 12 month period ending 30 June 201961, with landfilling of household waste reducing by over 12 percentage points to The NICS Energy Management Strategy and Action Plan to 203063 focusses on reducing energy consumption by 30% by 2030 from a 2016/17 baseline. In addition, its sets a strategic context for the NI Government estate to improve energy efficiency, implement better energy procurement and aims to ensure that NI Central Government spends no more on energy in 2030 than it does today. This includes, where possible, development of plans to accommodate windfarm projects on the public forest estate, the potential for energy storage across the estate and energy efficient measures that reduce energy consumption and benefit emissions reduction. The Energy Management Strategy also encompasses work by Northern Ireland Water to reduce the production of greenhouse gases from its operations through investment of at least £6 million on a programme for energy efficiency and renewable The Northern Ireland Department of Education (DE) is undertaking a pilot project to install automated meter reading systems in a number of the most inefficient school buildings. It also aims to investigate and share best practice from those schools which are found to be the most efficient in terms of energy consumption, and work continues across the health estate to identify energy efficiency projects for investment.
Meeting the long-term aims of the Forestry Service Strategy to increase the level of afforestation is challenging and work is underway to gather opinions and perspectives on how to increase tree planting. In transport, the Department of Infrastructure (DfI) is progressing work to encourage a shift to cycling, increase use of public transport and support the introduction of Ultra Low Emission Vehicles to the Northern Ireland market. Through the Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme64 energy companies provide energy saving measures to low income households. This programme has been extended to March 2022 while options for future energy efficiency provision are considered. Work is also being progressed on the introduction of new building regulations that will further improve the energy efficiency of new buildings. This section outlines the social and economic impacts of some of the UK’s policies 4.3.1 Powering Past Coal Just Transition Taskforce The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) is a flagship UK and Canadian initiative focused on accelerating the pace of the transition from coal fired power generation internationally. The PPCA has grown rapidly since its launch at COP23 to encompass over 91 members and received significant recognition and support. 61 Northern Ireland local authority collected municipal waste management statistics April to June 2019 quarterly report municipal-waste-management-statistics-april-june-2019 62 Northern Ireland local authority collected municipal waste management statistics 2017/18 annual report 63 The Strategic Investment Board, Energy Management Strategy and Action Plan to 2030 project/energy-management-strategy-and-action-plan-to-2030/ 64 Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme sustainable-energy-programme-nisep-list-schemes-2019-2020

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 47 The PPCA has created a Just Transition Taskforce. The Taskforce offers a useful way to engage with Alliance members and big coal users, such as South Africa, ensuring that the PPCA a source of global leadership on climate and a useful resource to access as countries The first meeting of the Just Transition Taskforce took place in London on 1 July 2019, which incorporated members from the worldwide trade union movement, academics and civil society experts. The purpose of the Taskforce is • To share best practice amongst existing membership and with other partners; • Create a wider pool of expert partners that will provide global leadership; and • Enable the Taskforce to approach countries where transitioning workers is the main barrier to change and engage with them to offer practical solutions. For instance, it also builds on growing international attention to the issue, as demonstrated at COP 24 Katowice where the UK and others signed the Solidarity and Just Transition Silesia Declaration, and Germany and Canada’s recent experiences undertaking Coal Commissions. 4.3.2 Supporting countries to develop their 2050 pathways To support the UK 2050 pathways analysis, the UK Government developed the 2050 Calculator energy and emissions model in 2010. The Calculator is a tool that helps strengthen the level of debate on energy issues in the UK. Over the last 7 years, BEIS has supported countries around the world to develop their own calculators to explore their options to reduce GHG emissions, help tackle energy challenges, and reduce negative impacts. An International Climate Fund programme directly supported teams in India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Nigeria, South Africa, Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh. Many other countries, both developed and developing, have also adopted the model, for example China, Japan and Austria. India, Colombia, Vietnam and Nigeria have used the calculator to help develop Nationally Determined Contributions for the Paris Agreement. Some countries also use the calculator to communicate with stakeholders and the general public. For example, the South African Government has developed a simplified version for use in schools and is providing training to teachers on how to use it. This programme has now been extended, with an extra £3.5 million to support 5 new countries to develop Calculators and to further support existing 2050 Calculator teams 4.3.3 Transition to a net zero economy The transition to a net zero economy presents a major opportunity for the UK to be a world- leading hub for jobs, businesses and exports in low carbon sectors. There are nearly 400,000 jobs in low carbon businesses and their supply chains across the UK, with low carbon exports worth billions of pounds a year65. The UK low carbon economy could grow over four times faster than the rest of the economy between 2015 and 2030, which would deliver up to £170 billion of exports and supporting up to 2 million jobs66. To realise these opportunities, the UK is focusing on technologies and approaches central to the shift to a net zero economy, such as electric vehicles, smart systems, green finance and offshore wind. For example, the UK is a global leader in offshore wind, with the largest 65 ONS Low Carbon and Renewable Energy 2017, (2019) environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2017 66 Ricardo-AEA for the CCC, UK business opportunities of moving to a low-carbon economy (2017)

48 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report installed capacity in the world. The Offshore Wind Sector Deal sets out how government and industry will work together to deliver increased capacity while boosting the economy, creating new export opportunities and jobs. As the economy evolves, the transition must be managed in a way that is fair and just. The UK is committed to supporting workers and communities who may face disruption as the economy moves away from high carbon industries, by providing opportunities to retrain and re-skill so that the benefits of clean growth are experienced by people across the UK. This was underlined when the UK signed up to the Silesia Declaration in December 201867, promoting efforts to ensure that no workers or communities are left behind in this transition, and the Just Transition Initiative at the UN Climate Action Summit in September 2019. The UK is investing in the workforce to ensure that people have the right skills to deliver the low carbon transition and in high value jobs. For instance, two-year courses called ‘T Levels’ have been developed in collaboration with employers and businesses so that the content meets the needs of industry and prepares students for work.
This includes T Levels for construction, which will help to develop the skills needed for sustainable construction to make sure buildings are energy efficient and fit for the future. Industry has pledged to provide 1,000 work placements for T Level students through the Construction Sector Deal68. In addition, the Offshore Wind Sector Deal commits to supporting the development of a sector-wide curriculum to deliver a skilled and diverse workforce, whilst challenging the sector to more than double the proportion of women working in the industry 4.3.4 Scotland’s Just Transition Commission A central pillar of the Scottish Government’s approach to climate change policy is constructive dialogue, and a Just Transition Commission has been established to provide Scottish Ministers with practical advice on how to maximise the economic and social benefits of decarbonising Scotland, and manage the risks and challenges. The Commission started work in January 2019 and will provide independent advice on the opportunities and challenges of moving to a net zero economy. Membership includes representation from business, industry, trade unions, third sector and environmental groups. The Commission’s remit emphasises the need • Plan, invest and implement a transition to environmentally and socially sustainable jobs, • Create opportunities to develop resource efficient and sustainable economic approaches, which help address inequality and poverty; and • Design and deliver low carbon investment and infrastructure, and make all possible efforts to create decent, fair and high value work, in a way which does not negatively affect the current workforce and overall economy. The Commission is engaging with businesses, workers and communities across Scotland and has been asked to report to Scottish Ministers with practical advice by early 2021. They will also provide an interim report in early 2020. 67 Just Transition Declaration – COP 24 Katowice 2018 68 BEIS, Construction Sector Deal (2019) 69 BEIS, Offshore Wind Sector Deal (2019)

4. Progress in achievement of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets 49 The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 has also placed just transition at the heart of Scotland’s legislative framework on tackling climate change, ensuring that Ministers must take account of the principles of just transition when preparing Climate

50 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report

This section reports on updated emission projections for 2020 and 2030. The key points • By 2020, the UK estimates that the emissions of the basket of 7 GHGs covered by the Kyoto Protocol70 will be around 402 MtCO2e, or 50% lower than the 1990 level; and by 2030, the UK projects that equivalent figures will be 368 MtCO2e and 54% below; • The UK projects that emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O will be around 46%, 64% and 57% respectively below 1990 levels by 2020; • The UK estimates (joint) emissions of the fluorinated HFCs, PFCs and SF6 will be 31% below their 1990 level by 2020; and • Since the Third Biennial Report, the UK has implemented further policies to help meet both its EU effort sharing targets and the carbon budgets71 set under the 2008 UK 5 . 2 Overall projections of GHG emissions This chapter presents information from the UK’s GHG EEP modelling. The UK published the most recent comprehensive report of this, EEP 2018, in April 201973. It includes estimates of future energy demand and GHG emissions in the UK to 2035. Unlike the National Communication report, which only includes “existing” policies (referred to as “With Existing Measures”, WEM), the EEP also includes planned policies, a scenario known as “With The projection models incorporate information from the 2018 GHG Inventory. This means that the data underpinning the discussion of future trends below are slightly different to those in the sections on historic developments. For example, Chapter 2 uses figures from the 2019 Inventory. However, the broad patterns are unlikely to change much when the new information is incorporated in the next edition of the EEP. 70 The UK reports LULUCF emissions in full to be consistent with Inventory Convention reporting. This scope is wider than that under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol and includes estimates for all anthropogenic sources minus sinks 71 This statistical release explains how the Inventory has changed government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/776085/2017_Final_emissions_statistics_-_ 72 UK Climate Change Act (2008) 73 Updated energy and emissions 2018 energy-and-emissions-projections-2018

52 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The UK updates its emission models of CO2 and other GHGs annually with new data. These include revisions to policy savings estimates, fossil fuel prices, carbon price projections, growth projections, and cost estimates for the power sector. The models are also regularly The UK focuses on values from the WEM scenario here. This includes policies that have been implemented or adopted but excludes planned measures. The scenario also excludes any use of flexible mechanisms such as EU ETS emissions trading or Joint Implementation and CDM credits. In addition, the UK provides selected data from the WAM scenario, which includes The figures within this Biennial Report include British Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories. These territories are excluded from UK carbon budgets legislation and do not appear in the EEP report as one of its primary aims is monitoring progress against the carbon budgets. According to the GHG Inventory, these regions were responsible for around 0.7% of total emissions on average between 2013 and 2016 (inclusive). The UK adjusts its figures to allow for this in the Biennial Report projections. Overall, the UK projects that GHG emissions including LULUCF will be 402 MtCO2e, about 50% below the 1990 level, by 2020 and roughly 368 MtCO2e by 2030, or 54% below the 1990 level. The percentages are very similar if LULUCF is excluded. respectively. This shows that additional, planned policies mainly affect CO2 emissions, reducing them by 6 Mt more in the year 2035 than in the WEM scenario.
Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 599 563 562 562 502 412 377 322 301 300 294 Methane 133 126 109 87 64 53 52 47 44 42 41 Nitrous oxide 48 39 29 25 21 20 21 21 21 20 20 Hydrofluorocarbons 14 19 10 13 16 16 14 11 7 4 3 Perfluorocarbons 2 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Sulphur Hexafluoride 1 1 2 1 1 <0.5 1 <0.5 <0.5 1 1 Total 798 750 712 688 605 502 464 402 374 368 359 Change from 1990 (%) -6 -11 -14 -24 -37 -42 -50 -53 -54 -55 Aviation bunkers 16 20 30 35 32 33 35 34 34 34 34 Marine bunkers 9 9 8 9 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage

Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 599 563 562 562 502 412 377 321 301 296 288 Methane 133 126 109 87 64 53 52 47 44 42 41 Nitrous oxide 48 39 29 25 21 20 21 21 21 20 20 Hydrofluorocarbons 14 19 10 13 16 16 14 11 7 4 3 Perfluorocarbons 2 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Sulphur Hexafluoride 1 1 2 1 1 <0.5 1 <0.5 <0.5 1 1 Total 798 750 712 688 605 502 464 401 374 364 353 Change from 1990 (%) -6 -11 -14 -24 -37 -42 -50 -53 -54 -56 Aviation bunkers 16 20 30 35 32 33 35 34 34 34 34 Marine bunkers 9 9 8 9 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage 5.2.1 Projected progress across the traded and non-traded sectors The traded sector largely consists of emissions from power generation and heavy industry, which are discussed in the energy supply and business sectors in section 5.3.2. EEP 2018 projects that these sectors will make up around 27% of UK emissions in 2020. With existing measures, traded emissions will decrease by around 17% between 2020 and 2030 and emissions from the remaining sectors covered by the effort sharing regulation (excluding projected traded emissions decrease by around 20% over the same period. This is before taking planned and Clean Growth Strategy policies into account. By 2035, the UK projects that the additional impact of these measures could leave emissions

54 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report regulation) sectors (UNFCCC coverage) Sector 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-traded excluding LULUCF 381 335 336 311 297 290 290 Traded 234 177 139 107 91 88 77 Total 605 502 464 402 374 368 359 Sector 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-traded excluding LULUCF 381 335 336 311 296 290 290 Traded 234 177 139 106 92 85 71 Total 605 502 464 401 374 364 353 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Transport 130 131 135 138 126 125 127 117 110 105 103 Energy supply 279 239 223 233 209 147 114 71 60 58 46 Business 114 112 116 109 94 85 80 83 73 69 69 Residential 80 82 89 86 88 68 67 68 71 74 78 Agriculture 54 53 51 48 45 45 46 45 42 42 41 Waste management 67 69 63 49 30 21 21 17 15 14 13 Industrial processes 60 51 27 21 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 Public 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 Total 798 750 712 688 605 502 464 402 374 368 359 Change from 1990 (%) -6 -11 -14 -24 -37 -42 -50 -53 -54 -55 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage 10% lower than 1990 levels by 2020 and 19% lower by 2030. The UK expects that measures will improve vehicle efficiency, such as the EU tailpipe emissions targets for new cars and vans; or will directly reduce emissions, such as mandating greater use of biofuels and providing incentives to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles. Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 127 128 133 136 125 124 126 115 108 104 101 Methane 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Nitrous oxide 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total 130 131 135 138 126 125 127 117 110 105 103 Change from 1990 (%) 1 4 6 -3 -3 -2 -10 -15 -19 -21 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage The UK projects that energy supply emissions will be 75% lower than 1990 levels by 2020 and projects a further gradual decline in fossil fuel-based generation out to 2035: it is displaced by more renewables and eventually nuclear generation in the 2030s. Projections show that

56 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 243 212 205 220 199 139 107 64 54 52 41 Methane 34 26 16 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 Nitrous oxide 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total 279 239 223 233 209 147 114 71 60 58 46 Change from 1990 (%) -14 -20 -17 -25 -47 -59 -75 -78 -79 -83 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage lower by 2030. The UK attributes improvements over time to the impact of policies that encourage energy efficiency, such as building regulations and minimum energy efficiency standards for new products, together with economic measures such as the Carbon Reduction Commitment and the Renewable Heat Incentive.
Emissions intensity, gCO2e/KWh

Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 112 109 109 97 78 70 66 71 65 64 65 Methane <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Nitrous oxide 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Hydrofluorocarbons <0.5 1 5 10 14 14 13 10 6 3 2 Perfluorocarbons <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Sulphur Hexafluoride 1 1 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 1 Total 114 112 116 109 94 85 80 83 73 69 69 Change from 1990 (%) -2 1 -4 -17 -25 -30 -27 -36 -39 -40 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage The long-term driver of emissions from UK households is household numbers themselves. The UK projects that these will increase over the whole period due to population growth in the increases in population and housing are offset by the impact of existing energy and emission reduction policies through, for example, improved insulation of homes. The overall impact of these factors will lead to a projected rise in domestic emissions of 9 MtCO2e (14%) between Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 79 80 86 83 85 65 65 66 68 71 75 Methane 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Nitrous oxide <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 80 82 89 86 88 68 67 68 71 74 78 Change from 1990 (%) 2 11 7 9 -16 -16 -15 -12 -8 -3 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage The UK projects emissions from the agriculture sector will decline by around 7% between Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 Methane 31 30 29 27 25 26 26 25 24 24 24 Nitrous oxide 17 17 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 Total 54 53 51 48 45 45 46 45 42 42 41 Change from 1990 (%) -2 -7 -11 -17 -16 -16 -18 -22 -24 -24 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage

58 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The UK projects that annual GHG emissions from waste management will fall to 75% below will continue to fall because more waste is being preferentially disposed of in alternative ways, such as through incineration, biological waste treatment (BWT) and recycling; and because small improvements in landfill efficiency continue to be made. The Landfill Directive helps to drive forward waste policy. It expires in 2020. Therefore, the projection is that the proportion of waste going to landfill will stop decreasing from 2020, although emissions reductions should continue for a time as emissions lag behind disposal. The UK projects increases in BWT emissions and domestic wastewater emissions will partially counteract the decrease in landfill emissions. Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Methane 65 68 62 48 28 19 19 15 13 12 12 Nitrous oxide 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Total 67 69 63 49 30 21 21 17 15 14 13 Change from 1990 (%) 4 -6 -26 -55 -69 -69 -75 -78 -79 -80 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 19 18 17 16 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 Methane <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Nitrous oxide 24 14 5 3 2 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Hydrofluorocarbons 14 18 3 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Perfluorocarbons 2 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Sulphur Hexafluoride <0.5 <0.5 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 60 51 27 21 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 Change from 1990 (%) -15 -55 -66 -79 -79 -82 -82 -84 -84 -85 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage

The UK projects emissions from public services will remain broadly constant until the mid- Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 Methane <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Nitrous oxide <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 Change from 1990 (%) -2 -10 -17 -30 -41 -42 -48 -48 -44 -42 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage 5.3.9 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry The amount of carbon stored in UK trees has increased since 1990. However, UK experts expect this balance will change in the future as forests mature (carbon uptake reduces) and as more are felled and replanted over the sustainable forest management cycle. They suggest Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Carbon dioxide -2 -4 -6 -9 -11 -11 -11 -17 -16 -12 -10 Methane <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Nitrous oxide 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 Total <0.5 -2 -4 -7 -9 -10 -10 -16 -14 -11 -8 Change from 1990 (%) -770 -1,617 -2,885 -3,666 -3,902 -3,973 -6,220 -5,586 -4,240 -3,286 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage

60 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report projections for overall emissions of GHG gases to 2035. transport, business, residential and energy supply. By 2030, a decrease in CO2 emissions from energy supply of around 18% and increases in residential emissions mean that the order of the last 3 becomes residential, business and energy supply.
By 2030 the UK expects CO2 emissions will be around 50% lower than 1990 values. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Transport 127 128 133 136 125 124 126 115 108 104 101 Energy supply 243 212 205 220 199 139 107 64 54 52 41 Business 112 109 109 97 78 70 66 71 65 64 65 Residential 79 80 86 83 85 65 65 66 68 71 75 Agriculture 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 Waste management 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Industrial processes 19 18 17 16 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 Public 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 Total 599 563 562 562 502 412 377 322 301 300 294 Change from 1990 (%) -6 -6 -6 -16 -31 -37 -46 -50 -50 -51 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage

The two biggest emitters of CH4 are agriculture and waste management. The UK projects a modest decline in CH4 emissions between 2020 and 2030 of around 5 MtCO2e. This means Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Transport 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Energy supply 34 26 16 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 Business <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Residential 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Agriculture 31 30 29 27 25 26 26 25 24 24 24 Waste management 65 68 62 48 28 19 19 15 13 12 12 Industrial processes <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Public <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 133 126 109 87 64 53 52 47 44 42 41 Change from 1990 (%) -5 -18 -34 -52 -60 -61 -64 -67 -68 -69 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage The majority of N2O emissions come from agriculture. The UK expects little change in these over the projected period, expecting that they will be around 58% lower in 2030 than in 1990. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Transport 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Energy supply 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Business 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Residential <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Agriculture 17 17 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 Waste management 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Industrial processes 24 14 5 3 2 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Public <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 48 39 29 25 21 20 21 21 21 20 20 Change from 1990 (%) -20 -41 -49 -56 -58 -57 -57 -58 -58 -58 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage Almost all HFCs are emitted by the business sector. The UK projects steady reductions so that emissions in 2030 may be 7 MtCO2e less than in 2020, equivalent to a 70% decline

62 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Business <0.5 1 5 10 14 14 13 10 6 3 2 Industrial processes 14 18 3 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 14 19 10 13 16 16 14 11 7 4 3 Change from 1990 (%) 33 -31 -9 15 11 -1 -22 -49 -70 -81 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage PFCs remain at low levels over the projection period. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Business <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Industrial processes 2 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 2 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Change from 1990 (%) -64 -64 -77 -83 -80 -78 -79 -79 -79 -79 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage SF6 emissions remain at low levels over the projection period. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Business 1 1 1 1 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 1 Industrial processes <0.5 <0.5 1 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 Total 1 1 2 1 1 <0.5 1 <0.5 <0.5 1 1 Change from 1990 (%) <0.5 42 -18 -46 -64 -60 -65 -64 -61 -58 Primary Inventory 2019. EEP, 2018, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage 5 . 5 Total effect of policies and measures The majority of projections presented are from a WEM scenario. They include the impact of all the UK’s implemented and adopted policies and measures. Both these and emissions savings planned policies, so the figures there differ from those in the EEP report. Since the last Biennial Report74, the UK has continued to update its analysis of policies and measures expected to help meet both the EU effort sharing targets and the targets for the carbon budgets set under the UK Climate Change Act. 74 The UK’s Third Biennial Report was published in Annex 1 of the UK’s Seventh National Communication convention/national-communications-and-biennial-reports-annex-i-parties/third-biennial-reports-annex-i

The UK treats the policies adopted before 2009 as part of the baseline because carbon emissions savings attributable to policies adopted between April 2009 and April 2019, as published in the 2018 UK EEP. For example, in 2020 the UK projects that policies (excluding planned) will deliver emissions reductions of around 84 MtCO2e. To avoid double-counting savings, the UK estimates the impacts of each policy according to a hierarchy. The UK reports the emission reduction residual due to each once the savings from measures further up the hierarchy have been accounted for.
The latter considers the level of imperative imposed by a policy—whether there is regulation, an incentive or advice—and the The values of differences in projected emissions between scenarios do not exactly match the sum of emissions reductions provided by individual policies. This is due to price interactions and to adjustments to policy impacts to improve accuracy. The Clean Growth Strategy set out over 50 additional policies and proposals that will drive emissions down throughout the next decade and beyond. Through preparing this Strategy, the UK Government identified areas where it will need to see the greatest progress, both through technological breakthroughs and large-scale deployment, in order to meet its national Scenario 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Emissions excluding the impact of measures adopted between 2009-17 (baseline) 511 490 488 475 486 Emissions including all implemented or adopted measures (excluding planned policies) 460 398 370 364 356 Savings from measures adopted 2009-17 (excluding planned policies) 73 84 110 107 129 savings from existing measures projected emissions with existing measures

64 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report 5 . 6 Projection methods by sector The UK has largely derived the projections of the UK’s emissions of CO2 and combustion-related emissions of other GHG (CH4 and N2O) from the BEIS EEP modelling. This models the UK energy market including final sector energy use and the electricity supply sector. It includes a top down and bottom up econometric model of energy demand and combustion-related GHG emissions for the UK economy with a bottom-up supply side model. The sector classification and the principal source of energy statistics is the Digest of UK Energy use projections are converted to emissions projections using the same fuel emissions factors the UK National Inventory uses. There is some additional calibration to take account of any energy uses not captured in DUKES. Industrial process emissions are calibrated by relating inventory emissions to production. The EEP model suite projects emissions using projections for fossil fuel prices, carbon prices, economic growth and demographics. The key assumptions section (5.7.4) includes sources The UK’s published projections include scenarios for high and low fossil fuel price assumptions, high and low GDP growth rates and a baseline that excludes post-2009 climate change policies and measures. The projections published in the UK are typically presented in WEM and WAM scenarios, though these are on a UK-only basis and do not include emissions from Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories. The projections reported in this chapter are from the UK WEM scenario and are scaled up to include Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories emissions. Projections of energy demand by fuel and sector start from a baseline econometric business as usual projection, from which savings due to policies and measures are subtracted. The projections include all firm and funded government environmental policy measures as most recently evaluated. In the WEM scenario all these are adopted this Biennial Report does not include policies which only have planned status. The overall modelling approach is similar to that in the previous Biennial Report, although there have been improvements in each sector. The CO2 road transport model is an econometric response surface model integrated into the economy-wide Energy Demand Model (EDM) and calibrated against the Department for Transport’s (DfT) National Transport Model. The econometric model is multi-modal as it includes cars, light good vehicles, heavy goods vehicles and public service vehicles. It includes a population driver for cars and a manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) driver for heavy goods vehicles as well as price, motor spirit/diesel engine share and fuel efficiency and Most energy efficiency improvements are policy driven, such as by EU new car emissions intensity targets and complementary measures such as lower rolling resistance tyres for heavy goods vehicles. Unlike for other demand sectors, impacts of policies and measures on road transport fuel demand are modelled within the economy-wide EDM. Road vehicle efficiencies, motor spirit/diesel engine shares and biofuel use under different policy scenarios are used to calculate mitigation impacts from differences in demand between scenarios. 75 Digest of UK Energy Statistics, UK Government

Electricity demand from electric cars and light good vehicles passes to the Dynamic Dispatch Model (DDM), which models a demand-side response. Non-CO2 road transport emissions projections follow a bottom up calculation methodology in line with that for the historical time-series of emissions. The activity data (vehicle distances travelled) is projected using 2018 DfT traffic forecasts76. DfT’s projected traffic growth, the planned electrification of existing track and the construction of new lines such as Crossrail and High Speed 2 underpin the rail transport model. Projections for UK commercial aviation involve estimates of future UK GDP, consumer expenditure, population and oil prices. The Fleet Mix Model captures efficiency improvements, for example the modelling assumes increasing use of biofuels. DfT provides more detailed information about methodology and assumptions with its aviation forecast77. The modelling has extrapolated historical trends in the GHG Inventory to extend the aviation emissions projections to UNFCCC coverage. The UK projects national navigation will remain largely static. BEIS uses the Dynamic Dispatch Model (DDM) to project investment and generation in the electricity supply sector. The DDM is a market-based model that simulates the operation of the electricity market and the investment decisions of the market participants in detail. It is a profit-maximisation model incorporating the effect of government policies such as Contracts for Difference, which incentivise low-carbon generation through market mechanisms. The DDM also models investment in the supply of heat and electricity from Combined Heat and Power plants, mostly in industry. Oil refinery emissions are calculated from the latest energy consumption statistics from the DUKES. For emissions projections, the UK breaks manufacturing down into sectors using the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). The manufacturing sectors in the EDM • Non-metallic mineral products; • Manufacturing not elsewhere classified. 76 Road traffic forecasts 2018 77 UK aviation forecasts 2017

66 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The UK projects GVA for each of these sectors using GDP, interest rates and, in some cases, terms of trade (the relative prices of imports and exports).
The UK projects total energy demand for each sector from GVA and energy prices. Except for iron and steel, the modelling splits the total energy demand into different fuels using historical fuel demands and projections of relative fuel prices. In iron and steel, the UK estimates energy demand using sector GVA and the tonnages of steel produced using electricity or by the Basic Oxygen Energy demand is projected by commercial services from sector GVA, using the average growth rate since 1991, and temperature. The overall demand is then split into fuels. To project business electricity demand from business, it is included in non-domestic demand and passed to the DDM. Emissions from fuels combusted on-site are included in business. The UK projects the residential emissions from gas, oil and solid fuels use separately. The estimates depend on assumptions about the percentage of households using each fuel as their main heating source. The primary drivers of residential energy demand are household numbers, fuel prices, temperature and income. The same drivers predict domestic electricity demand. This is passed to the DDM. UK agriculture uses a relatively small amount of energy. Therefore, projections of its emissions come from simple trend models. Defra uses Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) methodology78 to provide projections of activity, such as livestock numbers, crop production and fertiliser nitrogen use, and non-CO2 emissions to 2030. These are flat lined for later years. The FAPRI projections come from an economic model that assumes a specific set of international prices for agricultural commodities and a path for the sterling exchange rate. Together, these factors are important determinants of the returns to farmers and hence of total agricultural production. Defra converts these FAPRI activity projections to emissions using the latest agriculture Projections of CH4 from landfill depend on Defra’s projections of tonnages of municipal waste going to landfill and on HMRC’s figures for commercial and industrial waste. Waste composition is projected from knowledge of changes to BWT processes and from Defra’s These projections of waste going to landfill are then run through MELMod79, the landfill emissions calculation model. The MELMod model is based on the IPCC’s first-order decay methodology, which the 2014 GHG Inventory report summarises80. ONS population projections underpin predictions of emissions of CH4 and N2O from domestic wastewater and sewage/sludge decomposition. Industrial wastewater emissions are predicted to stay 78 FAPRI-UK Greenhouse Gas Emission Modelling System for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland 79 Eunomia, Inventory Improvement Project – UK Landfill Methane Emissions Model defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=9887_WR1124Finalreportincludingappendices.pdf 80 Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern 1990-2015 gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=932

constant. BWT emissions from multiple sources are combined. Some are projected to be constant and some are extrapolated from the latest year of historical data using sector experts’ estimates of future BWT capacity. Manufacturing sector GVAs or the energy demand used to project business emissions underpin some projections of CO2 emissions from industrial processes. Other CO2 emissions will stay at the Inventory value. Many methods are used for projections of non-CO2 emissions from industrial processes. Some sources use manufacturing sector GVAs while others use more detailed assumptions about future activity. Annex N of the EEP81 provides more information about these Sector employment levels are used as the main driver in modelling non-electricity energy demand from public services. The projections assume that the historical trend of improving energy efficiency per employee will continue. Temperature also affects demand. The models break non-electricity energy demand into fuels using the same proportions as in latest Electricity demand is trended to use only public sector employment as a driver and is included in the non-domestic demand we pass to the DDM. The modelling of emissions from public services does not consider energy prices. 5.6.9 Land use, land use change and forestry The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Forest Research model LULUCF emissions using approaches that are consistent with the current inventory methodology. They produce 4 scenarios – Baseline, Central, High and Low – for future emissions. Each makes assumptions about afforestation, wildfires, peat extraction, land use change and deforestation. They developed these scenarios with a policy maker stakeholder group and updated them in 2016 following discussions with UK devolved administrations. Broadly, their central scenario is a continuation of current policies and activity rates. This is the scenario used in generating emissions projections for this report. 5.7.1 Estimation of emissions in Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories The UK’s Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories are not included in the projections that the UK produces annually to monitor progress against its own carbon budgets. The projections in this Biennial Report supplement the UK annual figures with forecasts for those areas that are consistent with the UK 1990 to 2016 GHG Inventory. The latter are simple linear trends of the emissions in each National Communication sector based on observations from the last nine years. Emissions in these territories are only a small proportion of UK emissions, making up around 0.7% of the UK’s UNFCCC coverage emissions recently.
81 Updated energy and emissions 2018 energy-and-emissions-projections-2018

68 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report 5.7.2 Strengths of the projection methodology The UK’s modelling has the following • The initial starting points for the projections are the latest historical data from the Inventory and DUKES, which are based on the 2018 Inventory (latest actuals 2016) and 2018 energy statistics (latest actuals 2017), both published in 2018., and are well established, recent • The main Energy Demand Model (EDM) uses econometric methods that capture long-run relationships between economic activity, energy consumption and emissions; • The detailed model of electricity generation captures both short-run fuel switching and long-term investment strategies; • The UK updates its projections regularly as part of the monitoring of UK national • The models use authoritative national and international sources for • There is a rolling programme of review and update for the projection methodologies and econometric models, and modelling performance is tested by back-casting to see how well they predict what happened in the recent past; • The projections distinguish between business as usual emissions and the emission reductions due to mitigating policies and measures; and • The modelling estimates the mitigation impacts of policies using a common cross- 5.7.3 Weaknesses of the projection methodology The UK’s modelling has the following • the modelling generally assumes that historical relationships will continue in the future, which can fail to capture structural changes and new technologies where these fall outside the scope of included policies and measure • there is considerable recognised uncertainty in economic and social projections from • econometric modelling is subject to estimation errors and the possibility of incorrect identification energy use drivers A set of key assumptions about UK economic growth, demographic changes and future fuel price trajectories underpin the EEP. The main sources of the projections are the forecasts made by the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Office for National Statistics (ONS), and supplemented by International Monetary Fund projections of world growth. 82 Green Book supplementary valuation of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for appraisal

The UK released the most recent EEP in April 2019. UK GDP up to 2021 was from the March 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlooks83 and beyond 2021 GDP came from the January 2017 Fiscal Sustainability Report84. The UK’s ONS produced the population projections in 2016 alongside a supporting methodology description. It produces population and household projections. The ONS released information about changes in methodology since the previous population projection alongside the 2018 population projections85. The household projections updated socio-economic growth assumptions. Change 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Households 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Population 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 BEIS updates the fossil fuel price and carbon prices projections annually, which are subject to Price 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Crude oil (Brent 1 month), $/bbl 56.03 71.72 77.70 84.67 84.67 Gas (NBP), p/therm 45.69 48.00 56.00 63.00 63.00 Coal (CIF ARA), $/tonne 85.58 85.67 85.67 86.67 86.67 EU ETS carbon price, £/tCO2 5.19 13.84 17.70 42.66 42.66 Exchange rate 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Euros (€ per £) 1.14 1.10 1.07 1.07 1.07 US Dollars ($ per £) 1.29 1.38 1.42 1.42 1.42 5.7.5 Quality assurance and quality controls Quality assurance of modelling is a high priority within government, and analysis for the EEP follows the BEIS quality assurance guidelines. 83 Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2018 84 Office for Budget Responsibility, Fiscal sustainability report – January 2017 sustainability-report-january-2017/ 85 Office for National Statistics, 2016-based household projections for changes to methodology methodologies/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsforenglandchangestomethod ology

70 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report A small group of BEIS analysts produces the energy and emission projections, and owns, maintains and updates the Energy Demand Model (EDM) which underpins these. The EEP team liaises with other modelling teams both inside and outside BEIS to quality assure and compile the data which go into the overall projections. Figures relating to electricity come from cycling two specialised models with the EDM. These are the DDM and the Prices and Bills Model of retail electricity prices. This cycling ensures that electricity demand is in equilibrium with prices. The owners of these models help to check model results. Projections for non-energy non-CO2 come from the BEIS The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology produces the UK’s LULUCF projections under contract; this is overseen by the BEIS Science and Innovation for Climate and Energy Directorate. BEIS bases transport sector modelling on, and calibrates it against, the detailed models for road, rail and air used by the Department for Transport (DfT). These latter are in turn subject Analytical teams in the relevant areas prepare estimates of the emissions or energy savings due to government policies. These are normally based on the Impact Assessments for each measure. Analysts prepare the latter according to central guidance, which ensures that energy use and GHG emissions are valued consistently across government. Analysts send the policy savings in a standard template and the EEP team checks them to look for any unaccounted overlaps and to ensure internal consistency between energy and emissions savings. The team confirms the model savings with the submitting analysts and departments. The UK updates its GHG projections annually to inform progress against national carbon budgets and publishes each set of projections. The EEP team improves and adapts the core Energy Demand Model incrementally, quality assuring each change to confirm validity and robustness. (The team responsible for the DDM quality assures any change relating to electricity generation.) The EEP team presents interim and final results to a Steering Group which oversees the process, and stakeholders review draft EEP reports before publication. The independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) reviews the projections after their release. In April 2019 the UK published annexes of data to accompany the EEP.
These included low and high fossil fuel prices and low and high UK GDP rates as variant scenarios

Crude oil (Brent 1 month), $/bbl 56.03 49.81 54.79 59.77 59.77 Gas (NBP), p/therm 45.59 35.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 Coal (CIF ARA), $/tonne 85.58 57.78 61.76 65.75 65.75 Crude oil (Brent 1 month), $/bbl 56.03 93.64 106.59 119.54 119.54 Gas (NBP), p/therm 45.59 72.00 75.00 78.00 78.00 Coal (CIF ARA), $/tonne 85.58 112.57 114.56 116.55 116.55 The EEP team produced these scenarios following a fundamental analysis of the drivers of the wholesale prices of the main fossil fuel prices available to the UK within the European energy market. They are not sensitivities to the overall level of fossil fuel prices and do not maintain To investigate the impact of different economic growth rates, the EEP includes scenarios where the economy performs at 25 basis points per annum above or below the reference Scenario 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 High UK GDP Growth 1.7 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 Low UK GDP Growth 1.7 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.1 Taking the combinations of the different fossil fuel and GDP variants gives 4 different

72 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report MtCO2e (WAM policy accounting for various scenarios, UK coverage 1). Scenario 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reference scenario 448 398 371 361 350 Low Fossil Fuel Prices 448 404 377 378 361 High Fossil Fuel Prices 448 398 364 349 342 Low UK GDP Growth 448 397 368 357 346 High UK GDP Growth 448 399 372 364 353 The future values of key variables such as fossil fuel prices, the impacts of policy and demographic/economic growth cannot be known with certainty. However, these variables underpin EEP forecasts. Understanding the impact of this uncertainty is important in the context of the UK’s aim to reduce emissions through policy intervention, and so it is regularly investigated in EEP publications. This is based on the most influential drivers of energy use and emissions, previously identified through sensitivity analysis. The EEP team carries out a Monte Carlo simulation to vary the values of these drivers, firstly obtaining historical distributions of input values then running the projections model on samples from these distributions. The approach records the outputs from 10,000 simulations. upper and lower boundaries represent the projected emissions corresponding to the lower 2.5% and upper 97.5% percentiles of the simulations respectively. The uncertainty analysis excludes the electricity supply industry and possible “structural breaks” in society or the economy which might significantly affect emissions. For example, societal and behavioural step changes or breakthrough technologies like improved storage could have profound impacts on the UK’s energy mix and emissions but are hard to anticipate. 1 The UK’s Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories are not included in this sensitivity analysis . Uncertainty, MtCO2e 2020 2025 2030 Upper 95% confidence interval 418 394 392 2018 Reference case 398 371 361 Lower 95% confidence interval 380 350 341 Upper 95% confidence interval, difference from reference 5 6 9 Lower 95% confidence interval, difference from reference -4 -6 -6 Upper 95% confidence interval, change on 1990 values -47 -50 -51 Reference, change on 1990 values -50 -53 -55 Lower 95% confidence interval, change on 1990 values -52 -56 -57 The methodology only looks at future uncertainty and does not examine uncertainty in historical inputs or emission estimates, such as those before 2018. Uncertainty is higher for later years, reflecting the reduced confidence in modelled projections further into the future. By 2020, the UK projects GHG emissions will be between 47% and 52% below 1990 levels, with the reference case (WAM) estimate 50% below. Annual total territorial emissions, MtCO2e

74 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report 5 . 9 Differences from the last Biennial Report Report86, which was based on projections produced in 2017. The main differences between the two projections include additional implemented and adopted polices, some re-estimations of the impact of policies, improved modelling, revised fossil fuel price and economic growth assumptions. The EEP team has also updated the projections to take account of improvements to the historical inventory and other improvements to methods, emission factors and activity data. The net effect of these changes is to reduce projected emissions in 2020 from 48% below 1990 levels in the Third Biennial Report to 50% below 1990 levels in the Fourth Biennial Report. The projected GHG reduction of 12 MtCO2e between the two projections is mostly because the Fourth Biennial Report projects fewer CO2 there are minimal changes in the projections of the other gases. Third Biennial Report Fourth Biennial Report Carbon dioxide 599 334 -44 599 322 -46 Methane 135 47 -65 133 47 -64 Nitrous oxide 51 22 -57 48 21 -57 Hydrofluorocarbons 14 11 -23 14 11 -22 Perfluorocarbons 2 <0.5 -84 2 <0.5 -79 Sulphur Hexafluoride 1 <0.5 -70 1 <0.5 -65 Total GHG 803 414 -48 798 402 -50 Primary EEP, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage 86 The UK’s Third Biennial Report was published in Annex 1 of the UK’s Seventh National Communication convention/national-communications-and-biennial-reports-annex-i-parties/third-biennial-reports-annex-i

6. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing The UK remains committed to the collective goal to mobilise $100 billion per year in climate finance from a range of sources by 2020. The UK continues to work towards its 2015 pledge to provide £5.8 billion in international climate finance (ICF) between 2016/17 and 2020/21. At the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit, the UK committed to doubling provision of UK climate finance to £11.6 billion for the period between 2021/22 and 2025/26. The UK’s ICF helps developing countries mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, promote jobs and livelihoods, reduce poverty and support cleaner economic growth. UK ICF focuses on achieving transformational change, recognising the need to align all finance flows with a pathway towards climate resilient, low-emission development.
The UK is one of the largest contributors to major multilateral climate funds including the Green Climate Fund (GCF), with a £720 million commitment to the Initial Resource Mobilisation and a £1.44 billion pledge to the first replenishment and the Climate Investment Funds (CIF). In 2017 and 2018, the UK announced several new bilateral programmes to support developing countries. These include the £177.5 million Sustainable Infrastructure Programme in Latin America; the £106 million Market Accelerator for Green Construction; and the £60 million UK Partnerships for Accelerating Climate Transitions (UK PACT), a dedicated technical assistance programme, which aims to build lasting capacity to tackle climate change in accordance with the needs and priorities of developing countries. Recognising that adaptation is a priority for many developing countries, in our £5.8 billion commitment the UK aims for a balance between adaptation and mitigation. Between 2011/12 and 2018/19, it is estimated that ICF programmes have supported 57 million people to cope with the effects of climate change; reduced or avoided 16 MtCO2e and mobilised £3.8 billion public and £1.4 billion private finance for climate change purposes in developing countries. Due to the nature of the UK’s long-term transformative programming, these impacts will continue to increase throughout the lifetime of our portfolio. The UK has also committed to aligning all Official Development Assistance (ODA) – which the UK has a legal commitment to provide at a level equivalent to 0.7% Gross National Income – with the Paris Agreement, given the importance of all finance being aligned with a pathway to low emission, climate resilient development. The UK strategy for aligning all finance flows with clean, resilient growth was set out in the 2019 Green Finance Strategy87, which included this 87 HMT and BEIS, Green finance strategy (2019)

76 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report UK climate finance is reported according to a leading, in-house accounting framework which enhances accuracy in reporting. The majority of UK climate finance is grant-based, with 91% of support provided over the reporting period done through grants. 6 . 2 Overview of UK support, approach and channels Domestically and internationally the UK plays a leading role combating climate change. Ahead of COP 21, the UK pledged to provide at least £5.8 billion in ICF between 2016/17 and 2020/21. This positions the UK Government as amongst the largest contributors of public climate finance. The UK is committed to providing support that is transparent, transformative and in line with the needs and priorities of developing countries. The UK also remains firmly committed, alongside other developed countries, to jointly mobilising $100 billion of public and private finance a year by 2020, in the context of meaningful mitigation and transparency Our approach to climate finance recognises that support will play an important but partial role in the collective challenge of driving the shift in finance needed to meet the Paris Agreement. • Build resilience of the poorest people and communities, supporting developing countries to prepare for and adapt to climate change, improve disaster management and reduce both the harm caused by climate impacts and the costs of responding. ; • Work to ensure that the vast expansion in infrastructure in developing countries is low carbon and climate resilient, building capacity and unlocking greater flows of private finance towards clean growth, to bring down the costs of a global low carbon transition and help align all finance flows with a pathway to low emission, resilient development; and • Support work to halt deforestation and create new supply chains that are both profitable and the UK helps communities to use land in ways that reduce emissions and improve productivity whilst protecting and restoring forests that support important biodiversity and fragile ecosystems. In 2019, the UK set out a wider role for the financial sector in delivering global and domestic climate and environmental objectives through our Green Finance Strategy, including setting out where ICF programmes were helping to build green finance capability and capacity in This chapter sets out an overview of the support that the UK provides to developing countries. Where possible with multi-year programmes, the specific amount of finance provided in the reporting period has been stated. The UK’s full portfolio of climate finance programming over 6 . 3 Overview of UK commitments The UK is continuing to scale up support towards the shared $100 billion goal and continues to work towards fulfilling our pledge to provide £5.8 billion in ICF over a five-year period, enabling a doubling of 2014 levels to at least £1.76 billion in 2020. In 2017 and 2018, the UK delivered just over £2 billion of this commitment (£902.5 million in 2017 and £1,168.5 million in 2018), equivalent to $2,720 million. This does not include climate finance and/or co-benefits delivered through UK contributions to multi-lateral development banks like the World Bank – where, for instance, the UK is the largest shareholder of the International Development Association (IDA), the world’s largest provider of concessional climate finance to the poorest and most vulnerable countries. 3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 77 Recognising that adaptation is a priority for many developing countries, the UK aims for a balance between our mitigation and adaptation funding. The UK provided £1,012 million in adaptation funding over the reporting period. The UK has also committed, alongside Germany and Norway, to provide $5 billion for countries, communities and companies who bring forward ambitious projects to halt and reverse deforestation in the developing world. ICF represents a dedicated climate commitment which is new and additional to historic Official Development Assistance (ODA) levels – in 2009, when the $100 billion goal was set, total UK ODA was £7.3 billion, compared to £13.4 billion in non-climate ODA in 2018. Non-climate ODA, which is readily trackable given that there is a dedicated ring-fence on climate ODA, has therefore continued to rise alongside UK efforts to scale up climate finance.
The UK has more recently set out a series of ambitious commitments to further strengthen our future support for developing countries to take climate • As part of the UK’s Green Finance Strategy, the UK Government has committed to ensuring that all UK ODA is aligned with the Paris Agreement goals and is compatible with a low-carbon, climate resilient pathway; • At the UN Climate Action Summit, the Prime Minister committed to double the UK’s five-year £5.8 billion climate finance, to £11.6 billion over the period between 2021/22 • A doubling of our pledge to the GCF through its first replenishment, to £1.44 billion, making the UK the largest contributor to the fund; and • Up to £1 billion for the Ayrton Fund, a dedicated fund working with developing countries to develop, test and catalyse a range of clean energy technologies and business models to drive sustainable and inclusive growth, and combat climate change. 6 . 4 Financial support through International Climate Finance 6.4.1 Institutional approach to UK support The UK’s ICF is the delivery vehicle for the UK’s £5.8bn of climate finance programmes. UK ICF is part of the UK’s broader Official Development Assistance work and is delivered via three government departments, DFID, BEIS and Defra. The three departments manage a portfolio of investments collectively aiming to support developing countries to address climate change and to eradicate international poverty now and in the future by helping developing countries to manage risk and build resilience to the impacts of climate change, to take up low-carbon development at scale and to manage natural resources sustainably. Delivery across the departments ensures the best expertise from across government is used, enabling maximum impact in developing countries. • BEIS primary focus is on low carbon development in countries with high or growing emissions, with a focus on accelerating decarbonisation, making markets work to help finance the climate transition and halting deforestation; • DFID focuses on helping countries anticipate and cope with climate change, as well as supporting lower carbon development choices, which includes climate resilient food and water supplies, infrastructure and delivery of essential services, as well as supporting sustainable economic growth; and

78 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report • Defra focuses on mitigation and adaptation through sustainable natural resource management, food security, and protection of biodiversity with a strong focus on forestry, Cumulative data collected shows that, between 2011/12 and 2017/18, ICF programmes • Supported 57 million people to cope with the effects of climate change; • Provided 26 million people with improved access to clean energy; • Reduced or avoided 16 million tonnes CO2e; • Installed 1,600 MW of clean energy capacity; and • Mobilised £3.8 billion public and £1.4 billion private finance for climate change purposes in UK ICF is provided through a mixture of bilateral and multilateral channels. The following section sets out in more detail how the UK directs its climate finance, firstly by outlining the support the UK provides to the operating entities of the UNFCCC Financial Mechanism and other cross-cutting multilateral funds, and then providing an outline of UK support for mitigation, adaptation and land-use activities. The UK considers that an integrated approach, combining elements of financial, technological and capacity building support is necessary in order to respond to the needs of developing countries, and therefore all programmes are considered under the ICF umbrella. However, the subsequent sections of this chapter outline programmes with specific technological or Alongside the ICF, which is the UK’s core climate finance, several other government funds with wider remits also provide finance for climate action. The UK’s Cross-Government Prosperity Fund includes a focus on promoting reforms to energy markets to accelerate the transition to low carbon growth, drawing on the UK’s world-leading expertise in policy frameworks, energy system optimisation, promotion of renewable energy, roll out of smart technologies and building a green finance industry to accelerate the transition to low carbon growth. The Global Challenge Research Fund and the Newton Fund leverage the internationally recognised strength of the UK’s research base, ensuring that the UK takes a leading role in promoting research and innovation to address development challenges, including flooding and famine caused by climate change, environmental degradation and the development of low-carbon energy. The funds play a critical role in advancing development for the poorest people and countries and promoting long-term sustainable growth. 6.4.2 The UK’s categorisation of support In our reporting tables, the UK has categorised the status of 2017 and 2018 multilaterals and bilateral spend as ‘committed’. The reported finance is the amount recorded as spent through promissory notes for UK Government budgetary purposes. Promissory notes represent a binding commitment for the UK to provide the note’s total value to the stated recipient. The full value of the note is recorded as spent once formally laid with the Bank of England, but the actual drawdowns of cash from the note will take place over several years. The tables do not account for spend that has been pledged or committed for future years. However, for each programme covered in the overview below, the total amount pledged for the total duration of each programme is given alongside the amount committed in the

3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 79 6.4.3 Support for multilateral climate funds The UK has been a key contributor to the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC and continues to support the multilateral climate funds and to ensure their effectiveness in delivering climate finance within the broader financial architecture. The UK pledged £720 million to the Initial Resource Mobilisation of the GCF mobilization, the key multilateral fund for implementing the Paris Agreement. In 2019, the UK announced a doubling of our pledge for the GCF’s first replenishment of an additional £1.44 billion.
The UK is committed to ensuring that the GCF delivers maximum impacts in the developing countries it supports, including through both its 50:50 split for mitigation and adaptation and a renewed focus on strategic and effective programming, building on lessons learned to date. Since 2015, the GCF has programmed around $5.2 billion across 111 projects and leveraged over $18.7 billion in co-financing. The UK is also one of the leading contributors to the Global Environment Facility (GEF), having pledged £250 million for the 2018-2022 period. The GEF has supported over 1,000 climate mitigation projects and contributed to almost 3 billion tonnes of GHG emission reductions. The UK remains the largest investor in the CIF, having invested over $2.5 billion since 2008 to pilot low-emission and climate resilient development through projects implemented by the multilateral development banks. The CIFs support transformations in 4 key areas of clean technology, energy access, climate resilience and sustainable forests, through a portfolio 310 projects in 72 developing and middle-income countries. These projects are delivering significant development benefits, such as increased energy security, reduced local air pollution, and job opportunities as well as mitigating CO2 and increasing climate resilience. The CIFs are also unlocking additional private finance flows into climate investments in The UK is using ICF to support increased mitigation action, which is critical to achieving global climate goals. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require annual global emissions to fall by around 50% by 2030. Over the same time frame, the global economy is expected to double, and $90 trillion will be needed to invest in infrastructure to meet sustainable development goals. ICF aims to help shift these investment decisions towards low-carbon, climate resilient and inclusive growth, in a way that responds to the needs of developing countries, and to support countries to overcome the barriers they face in implementing their current NDCs. To address these challenges and support a shift in investment decisions towards low-carbon, climate resilient and inclusive growth, our targeted finance aims • Demonstrate and deploy technologies, policies and approaches that are critical for a 1.5°C or well below 2°C trajectory; • Drive decarbonisation at scale through the international development system, including by supporting the development banks to scale up their climate investments; • Build capacity and capability in countries to implement and strengthen their NDCs and raise ambition further, working to overcome regulatory and institutional barriers, including sharing UK skills and expertise where it is helpful; and • Deliver clean energy to the millions of people currently without any access to electricity and other forms of modern energy. The following section outlines the UK’s ICF support for mitigation, including programmes focussed on investment for decarbonisation, as well as highlighting two specific focus areas for UK developing carbon markets and directly targeting private finance mobilisation. 80 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report These are in addition to our contributions to multilateral funds set out in the above section. ICF programmes that more directly target capacity building and technology transfer can be found 6.4.4.1 Accelerating Decarbonisation Over 2017/18, the UK launched several programmes to accelerate decarbonisation internationally, primarily in the areas of infrastructure and cities. The UK also supports decarbonisation in developing countries through its support for research, development and deployment of low-carbon technologies, which are detailed within the ‘6.5 Technology transfer and development’ section of this chapter. In October 2018, the UK announced the £106.1 million Market Accelerator for Green Construction, a new collaborative programme between the UK and the International Finance Corporation to drive the financing and construction of more energy efficient buildings in developing economies. The programme will build demonstration portfolios of green construction at scale, reducing emissions, mobilising new finance and inspiring markets to shift towards the new energy efficient buildings of the future. An initial £68 million was committed over the reporting period. The UK pledged an additional £100 million to the Renewable Energy Performance Platform, in addition to the £48 million initially pledged for the period 2015 to 2020. The UK is the sole donor to the programme, which provides technical and financial support to private sector developers of small-scale renewable energy projects in sub-Saharan Africa. As of May 2019, the Renewable Energy Performance Platform is providing support packages to 25 renewable energy projects in 12 countries, which include solar PV, hydropower, onshore wind, and biomass, and both on- and off-grid technologies. £2.8 million was committed over the In 2017, the UK Government announced the £27.5 million ICF Climate Leadership in Cities programme, which supports cities in developing countries to plan for, and attract financing for, ambitious climate action. The programme provides technical assistance on climate action planning to 15 megacities across Latin America and Asia, and helps disseminate lessons learned to a wider network, as well as supporting a finance facility providing technical support to help cities secure financing. In addition, the programme supports national decision makers to shape more sustainable urban development, through a global evidence generation and national advocacy initiative. £8 million was committed over the reporting period. The UK has contributed £185 million to the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) Facility, a multi-donor facility established by the UK and German governments in 2012, working in partnership with Denmark and the European Commission. It supports and funds NAMAs for countries that are unable to attract private sector funding, to encourage low- carbon development pathways and thus reduce GHG emissions. The NAMA Facility currently has 12 projects in implementation over a range of sectors, including renewables, transport, buildings and agriculture, across countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. £85 million was committed to the facility over the reporting period. £85 million was committed over the The UK’s contribution to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme during the reporting period supports the clean energy transition and ensures technical support is available and accessible to countries wanting to consider or increase the pace of coal phase out in the short term. £19.2 million was committed over the reporting period.
The Green Mini-Grids Africa Regional Facility aims to help transform the mini grid sector from a growing and sporadic series of pilot projects, to a thriving industry. Work includes development of small-scale electricity generation which serves a limited number of consumers

3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 81 via a distribution grid that can operate in isolation from national electricity transmission network. Transformation is to be achieved through the creation of a critical mass of experience and evidence of success in Kenya and Tanzania, coupled with improved policy and market conditions for investments regionally. £8.6 million was committed to the programme over the In addition to programmes specifically targeting decarbonisation, the UK supports climate change mitigation through carbon markets, both nationally and internationally. Carbon pricing provides a cost effective and technology-neutral way of reducing emissions by raising the costs of high carbon activities, thereby incentivising emission reductions and increased ambition for climate change. The UK has invested over £110 million of its ICF across 3 funds that support carbon pricing and decarbonisation through market mechanisms in In March 2017, the Transformative Carbon Asset Facility was operationalised, with a budget of around $205 million of which the UK’s share was £60 million. The programme supports emission reduction crediting approaches at the policy and sectoral level by delivering results- based payments for emissions reductions that go beyond the host-country’s NDCs and informs the development of international carbon markets. The UK also continues to support the Partnership for Market Readiness programme with a £7 million commitment (made prior to the reporting period), which provides financial and technical assistance to support the establishment of domestic carbon pricing instruments including carbon taxes, crediting and offset mechanisms, and to facilitate knowledge The UK also supports the World Bank’s Carbon Initiative for Development with a £50 million commitment (made prior to the reporting period), which connects sub-Saharan homes and communities to clean energy sources, while increasing national capacity to participate in the international carbon market. The programme has helped improve access to clean energy for over 2.8 million people. £110,000 was committed over the reporting period. 6.4.4.3 Focus private finance Mobilising private climate investment is crucial to meeting the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and to shifting the trillions needed to ensure the sustainability of future global investment. However, there are a range of barriers that continue to prevent increased investment in developing countries, and targeted climate finance can help to overcome these. The UK supports several investments which specifically aim to increase private finance. In 2017, the UK established the £177.5 million Sustainable Infrastructure Programme Latin America, a technical assistance and capital investment programme to support partner countries to accelerate the implementation of NDCs by mobilising private sector investments into sustainable infrastructure. The programme combines capital investment for demonstration projects with other technical and financial support, including technical assistance to governments to help them shape their regulatory frameworks in a way that is attractive to private investors, support the development of local capital markets. Sustainable Infrastructure Programme Latin America focusses on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. £102 million was committed over the reporting period and the UK is actively exploring opportunities to develop a similar programme in Asia to launch in 2020. The UK also continues to implement its commitments outlined in the previous Biennial Report. The £200 million UK Climate Investments aims to scale-up private finance flows in Indian and sub-Saharan African markets through equity investments into renewable energy and energy

82 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report efficiency. £44 million was committed over the reporting period. £9.2 million was committed over the reporting period to the Get FiT Uganda Programme, which supports small-scale, on- grid projects in Uganda and promotes private investment. £22.5 million was committed over the reporting period to the Global Climate Partnership Fund, a public-private partnership that works with local banks in developing countries to open new markets in sustainable lending. Support for the second phase of the Private Infrastructure Development Group, aimed at mobilising private investment in infrastructure in to increase service provision for the poor, boost economic growth and alleviate poverty in the world’s poorest countries. £16.7 million was committed over the reporting period. By deploying expertise and small amounts of capital through equity, debt, guarantees, project development funds and grants, the Private Infrastructure Development Group operates across the infrastructure project life-cycle and capital structure to address the early stage risks associated with infrastructure projects, making projects bankable and acting as a key enabler for other DFIs and private investors to co-invest. Through this Private Infrastructure Development Group delivers high development impact in low-income countries and fragile and conflict-affected states that helps economies grow and combat poverty. The UK supported the Climate Finance Accelerator, an initiative designed to turn countries’ NDCs into finance plans with pipelines of investment-grade projects. The Accelerator brings together policy makers, project developers and financial experts from selected countries, to date Colombia, Mexico, Nigeria and Vietnam, enabling the transfer of knowledge, facilitating investment and promoting useful dialogue to increase climate action. £75,000 was committed The Global Innovation Lab is a board of experts who scrutinise innovative climate finance projects and help develop them by attracting private sector investment. The project has catalysed over $1.4 billion for Lab-endorsed proposals in the past 4 years. £430,000 was committed over the reporting period. The need to reduce emissions is widely accepted across the world. But the climate is already changing, with many millions of people facing food and water shortages and greater risks to health and life as a result. Recognising that some climate impacts are unavoidable, and that adaptation is comparatively under-funded, the UK aims for a balance between our adaptation and mitigation funding. 50% (£448 million) of the UK’s climate finance was spent on adaptation in 2017, and 49% (£564 million) in 2018. In total, the UK has provided over £2.4 billion in adaptation finance since 2013.
The UK’s bilateral adaptation funding is targeted at the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world. Recognising that developing countries face a number of barriers and challenges in accessing and attracting climate finance, the UK uses its influence within climate funds and multilateral banks to ensure that the needs of the poorest are prioritised and that the terms on which the finance is provided are appropriate. The UK will continue to build on its strong track record through its leadership of the Climate Resilience theme at the UN Secretary General’s 2019 Climate Summit, seeking to drive a transformation in the way climate change risk and adaptation is addressed globally. The UK’s support for adaptation concentrates on 4 • Adapt to long term changes well in advance, changing or diversifying livelihoods and ensuring infrastructure is fit for purpose;

3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 83 • Anticipate and reduce the impact of climate variability and extremes through effective forecasting and preparedness measures; • Absorb the effects of climate extremes and disasters through effective and rapid response that enables people to cope with disaster and recover quickly; and • Respond – the UK is the world’s third largest humanitarian donor, having allocated approximately £1.96 billion in funding towards humanitarian aid in 2017, which is a more than quadrupling of humanitarian assistance from 2009 levels. The UK’s adaptation programming include the Disaster Risk Insurance programme which improves the resilience of the private sector in poor countries to natural disasters. By supporting the development of a market for private sector disaster risk insurance, the project will sustainably help strengthen resilience, mitigate the effects of climate change and support economic development through private sector growth. £24.2 million was committed over the The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative deploys technical assistance and capital to provide insurance for the Pacific Islands so in future they can protect themselves against natural disasters such as cyclones and Tsunamis, thereby reducing their reliance on humanitarian aid. The nations of Tonga, Marshall Islands, Cook Islands, Vanuatu, and Samoa will benefit from the insurance. £10 million was committed over the Bangladesh’s National Urban Poverty Reduction Programme has received £20 million to help ensure rapidly urbanising Bangladesh is ready for climate change. Over 6 million people will benefit from better planned housing and infrastructure that is better protected from floods and extreme weather. £1.7 million was committed over the reporting period. Future Climate for Africa will enhance the scientific understanding and prediction of climate variability and change in Africa, working with stakeholders to bring this information into use in adaptation planning. The programme funds 4 regional consortia across Africa, with a focus on developing real demonstrations of the use of climate information in practice in areas such as infrastructure, urban plans and national planning. £7.2 million was committed over the Investment from the private sector is an essential part of the equation. AgDevCo is a specialised investor and project developer focused exclusively on early stage Small and Medium Enterprise agribusiness in Sub Saharan Africa. AgDevCo deploys patient capital and technical assistance to build profitable businesses that contribute to food security, drive economic growth and create jobs and income in rural areas and contribute to farmers’ resilience to climate change. 1 million people already benefit in rural areas from increased incomes as a result of the jobs and markets created by AgDevCo’s investments. 2.3 million people are expected to directly benefit by 2021 in Sierra Leone, Ghana, Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia. £30.2 million was committed over the The UK pledged £28 million to the Strengthening Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change in Kenya Plus programme – supporting scaling up of adaptation products, services and assets and supporting private sector innovation to build resilience to climate impacts. The project supported the production of the Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan, supporting 2 million people to better cope with climate change and helped establish 2 county level adaptation funds with more in the pipeline. £8.1 million was committed over the

84 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report The UK has pledged £147.5 million to International Fund for Agricultural Development ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture’ programme, helping make it the World’s largest climate change adaptation programme focused on smallholder farmers. This programme provides knowledge and best practices to help over 6 million smallholder farmers in up to 43 countries adapt to climate change. Grants will be made build small scale water-harvesting, water storage and irrigation systems for farmers; provide farmers with improved seeds that are drought tolerant; help farmers access markets to sell their crops; to plant trees on farms and introduce soil and water conservation practices; and, enable farmers to access daily and seasonal weather forecasts, such as using text messages, so they know when best to plant and harvest crops. £0.4 million was committed over the reporting period. Insurance and other forms of risk financing offer a way of providing rapid and predictable responses to disasters. To this end, the UK signed up to the original InsuResilience initiative in 2015. The aim is to increase access to direct or indirect insurance coverage against the impacts of climate change for up to 400 million of the most vulnerable people in developing countries by 2020. Demand, capacity, systems and regulatory environments are binding constraints to building up risk finance markets in developing countries. The UK is addressing these barriers through The London Centre for Global Disaster Protection. The Centre is a £30 million 4-year programme which aims to save lives and help countries get back on their feet quickly after a disaster strikes. It will act as a hub to draw together leading experts from the humanitarian, development and financial sectors internationally in a joint effort.
6.4.6 Land use change and forestry Recognising that agriculture, forestry and land use change are responsible for roughly a quarter of global anthropogenic GHG emissions every year, the UK’s ICF also supports global efforts to slow, halt and reverse deforestation, and to reduce GHG emissions from land use. Protecting forests also helps deliver important ecosystem services and provides opportunities to protect biodiversity and reduce poverty. The UK works with ambitious governments and private sector stakeholders to address market and failures linked to deforestation. Together with Germany and Norway, the UK pledged to collectively provide $5 billion between 2015 and 2020 to incentivise governments, companies and communities to protect our largest natural global carbon sinks. UK ICF supports indigenous communities, enhances capacity and provides incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation through government partnerships and results-based finance. ICF crowds in sustainable investments by supporting innovative sustainable farming and forestry businesses, zero-deforestation supply chains for key commodities, carbon-markets and the development of private impact funds. Forest clearance to cultivate commodities such as palm oil, soy, beef, pulp and paper is the largest driver of deforestation. Meeting global climate and sustainable development goals alongside food security needs will require a new, land-use paradigm that increases agricultural productivity – but not at the expense of forests. The UK has played a key role in brokering ambitious international and multi-stakeholder agreements, such as the New York Declaration on Forests in 2014 and the Leaders’ Statement on Forests and Climate Change in Paris, 2015. The UK is also working with private sector stakeholders through the Tropical Forest Alliance In 2018, the UK committed £75 million to the Partnerships for Forests programme, which incubates innovative low-carbon farming and forestry practices in South East Asia, Africa and Latin America. The programme catalyses private investment in sustainable forests and land use by supporting public-private-people partnerships that deliver on commitments for deforestation-free commodities, reduce the pressure on forests, and improve livelihoods. £2.8m was committed over the reporting period. 3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 85 The UK continues to support the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) framework, agreed under the UNFCCC to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks in developing countries. The framework aims to demonstrate a new land-use paradigm that delivers large- scale carbon mitigation and sequestration through sustainable forest management. As part of the REDD+ framework, the UK has pledged £141.5 million to the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (£45m was committed over the reporting period), a results-based fund that pays countries when they can demonstrate that they have reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; £223 million to the Forest Investment Programme, which provides upfront financing for public and private investments in forestry and related sectors across 23 countries and £115 million to the BioCarbon Fund, which supports policy reform and projects to roll out new landscape-wide approaches that produce emission reductions from agriculture, forests and other land use. The UK committed £73 million to the REDD for Early Movers programme which is an accelerator for the most ambitious countries to reduce emissions from deforestation. REM rewards programmes that are already successful in driving down deforestation, with finance re-invested in agreed activities to deliver further results. This includes strengthening the rights of indigenous communities, increasing the land-efficiency of commercial farming and creating new sustainable forest livelihoods. £42.9m was committed over the reporting period. The UK has pledged £15 million to support Sustainable Cattle Ranching in Colombia, which provides technical assistance to integrates cattle raising and agroforestry systems across 4000 farms in Colombia, and to shape agricultural methods to increase food production while reducing land degradation, deforestation, biodiversity impacts and GHG emissions from cattle ranching. £260,000 was committed over the reporting period. The Forest Governance, Markets and Climate is a global programme supporting governance and market reforms aimed at reducing the illegal use of forest resources, benefitting poor forest-dependent people and promoting sustainable growth in developing countries. £52.2 million was committed over The CGIAR is a consortium of 15 independent agriculture research centres operating in around 100 countries globally. Our support enables the CGIAR to scale up its research, contributing to the development of new crop varieties which are more productive and tolerant of biotic and abiotic stress; the development of farming systems which are more resilient, including to the effects of climate change, and more productive; the development of markets and value chains which are better able to deliver benefits to poor people and policies and technology which will directly support better nutritional and health outcomes for the poor. £24 million was committed over the reporting period. At the 2019 UN Climate action summit, the UK announced a new International Biodiversity Fund, with an initial investment of £220 million, and called for urgent action on biodiversity as part of global efforts to tackle the drivers and impact of climate change. The new International Biodiversity Fund comprises 3 a £100 million Biodiverse Landscapes Fund that will help to slow, stop and reverse biodiversity loss in some of the world’s most valuable habitats including by pioneering green corridors; £90 million to scale up the world renowned Darwin Initiative to help local communities protect species under threat and preserve their natural habitats; and £30 million to support efforts to tackle the illegal wildlife trade. 6.5 Technology development and transfer The increasing demand for energy supplies internationally to support sustainable development combined with the urgent need to address the threats of climate change mean that accelerating the deployment of low carbon and energy efficient technologies internationally is essential. Through its ICF programmes and its international engagement, the UK promotes,

86 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report facilitates and finances the transfer of technology to developing countries to help address these challenges.
Most of the UK’s technology transfer support is integrated within the UK’s climate finance programmes, recognising the cross-cutting, multi-sectoral needs of developing countries which require integrated support covering technology but also capacity building and finance to ensure they have a positive impact. The below publicly funded programmes have a strong focus on technology In 2017/18, the UK committed an additional £10 million to carbon capture, usage and storage, bringing the total contribution to £70 million. This supports developing countries to build up the technical and institutional knowledge necessary to enable the deployment of CCUS, including supporting the establishment of the necessary regulatory and policy frameworks. CCUS development and deployment is crucial for meeting climate goals, and the UK is the largest multilateral donor to CCUS globally. The UK also has been active internationally in this area, hosting and co -organising high-profile international events including the international CCUS workshop at the Asian Clean Energy Forum in June 2018 and the Global CCUS Summit in November 2018. Some successful technology transfer examples include the UK Co-financing for a pilot CO2 storage project in South Africa was endorsed by the President of South Africa in November 2017 and signed by the Minister of Finance in February 2018. In Mexico, with UK funding, the first CCUS Centre of Excellence was set up in February 2018 and in China UK financial support has been allocated to CCUS activities, including technical assistance for a full- chain CCUS coal-to-chemical plant. In December 2018, the UK also announced it would commit £19.2 million to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme, which helps developing countries to transition to cleaner energy by providing support to cover a range of technical and advisory services to accelerate the deployment of technology alternatives to coal power generation. The UK’s support includes funding for an expert to enable ESMAP to respond to increase demand for technical capacity for offshore wind and to build an investment pipeline. In 2018, the UK pledged an additional £3.5 million to extend the 2050 Calculator programme, bringing the total UK contribution to £6.2 million. This programme supports developing countries to create interactive and easy-to-use energy models based on the original calculator created by the UK government, thereby helping to support energy planning and improve understanding of pathways for clean energy transitions. It can be used by governments to explore options, consult stakeholders, and develop strategies, and has already been used by 10 countries since 2012. £250,000 was committed over the reporting period. Completed Calculators are having a clear policy impact and demonstrated the success of technology transfer. Four countries (India, Vietnam, Colombia and Nigeria) have used their Calculator models in the formulation of their NDCs for the Paris Agreement. In 2017, the Government of India used theirs in the development of their new National Energy Policy. The UK also continues to be the largest donor to the Clean Technology Fund through its contribution to the CIF. The Clean Technology Fund supports technology development and transfer internationally, by providing concessional finance to support the deployment of technologies in developing countries, focusing on renewable energy, energy efficiency and clean transport. The Clean Technology Fund has almost fully committed its resources and the UK is participating in discussions on the future of the fund. The UK has continued to support the idea of establishing a Clean Technology Fund 2.0, which could use existing assets to raise an estimated $3-5 billion, mobilise additional private finance and contribute significantly to the At the UN Climate Action Summit in September 2019, the Prime Minister launched the £1 billion Ayrton Fund. This aid funding will support scientists from around the world, working in partnerships with developing countries to drive the clean energy transition and reduce

3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 87 emissions. Through research, development and demonstration of new solutions and business models, the fund will strengthen capacity and unlock opportunities in developing countries for cleaner growth and better access to clean energy. Alongside this commitment, the UK will provide £200 million to drive forward the use of energy storage technology in developing countries. This will be deployed through a new Global Energy Storage Programme delivered through the Clean Technology Fund. The SUNRISE network, which unites several l eading universities and industrial collaborators from the UK and India in a transdisciplinary research collaboration. This international network helps develop and implement the technology necessary to build a minimum of 5 solar-powered building demonstrators in rural India. £1.4 million was committed over the reporting period. All UK ICF funded programmes are required to have bespoke monitoring frameworks (logframes, annual reviews and results collection), including programme specific results indicators. The UK uses these monitoring frameworks to ascertain and measure the performance of each programme. Annual Reviews are one of our key tools to monitor the progress of our programmes, as part of UK efforts to ensure continuous improvements, and as a formal control point in the programme cycle. In line with ODA transparency requirements, all annual reviews and logframes are published on the UK Development Tracker ( Information on UK ICF funded programmes, including those supporting technology transfer, can be found via Devtracker. 6.5.1 Securing policy commitments to accelerate low carbon technology deployment In addition to specific programmes, the UK continues to use its influence internationally in key fora and institutions to build increased policy commitments, interventions and high-level actions to encourage the promotion of low carbon technologies. In 2019, the UK joined the new Energy Storage Partnership, which brings together multilateral agencies, governments, research institutions, industry associations and philanthropies working collaboratively to promote energy storage solutions tailored to the needs of developing countries’ power systems. The partnership will provide technical research and data to inform the World Bank Group’s $1 billion battery storage investment programme announced in September 2018. The UK has nominated several organisations to participate in the partnership including the Faraday Institute, the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network, Innovate UK and the National Physical Laboratory.
The UK also continues to play an active leadership role in Mission Innovation, the key intergovernmental platform to accelerate clean energy innovation to deliver affordable low carbon solutions. The UK has committed to double its public sector clean energy research, development and deployment spend to £ 400 million by 2020/2021, including at least £100 million on projects that will help to address the clean energy needs of developing countries. The UK is currently Head of Secretariat for Mission Innovation, participates in all eight of the innovation challenges and co-leads the Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage and the Affordable Heating and Cooling of Buildings Innovation Challenges. The UK is an active participant in discussions about how Mission Innovation can continue to accelerate clean energy innovation beyond the end of the first phase of its mandate in 2020. The UK has played a key role in supporting the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) increasing focus on low carbon energy technology, including through supporting their flagship Energy Technology Perspectives analysis. The UK also supports various IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and is contributing £8 million to the IEA’s Clean Energy Transitions Programme, which provides cutting edge technical and policy support across the full range of energy policy areas relevant to the low carbon energy transition. The UK is an active member of the Clean Energy Ministerial, a forum to promote and share lessons learned from policies and programmes that advance clean energy technology. The UK is a member of many of the CEM’s initiatives including the initiative on Super-Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment. 88 UK’s Fourth Biennial Report Building lasting capacity is key to the transformational change needed to address climate change, and many ICF programmes include capacity building elements. Following extensive research on best practice and feedback from developing countries, the UK understands that capacity building support should • Country-led, responding to local demand and tailored to local context, reflecting local capacity and social norms and building upon existing national processes and institutions; • Flexible, able to adapt to evolving circumstances and priorities in country; and • Sustainable, ensuring capacity is built and sustained in the longer-term. The UK has an extensive network of officials based in developing countries. This ensures close relationships with governments and key organisations in these countries and the development of bilateral programmes based on developing country needs. Much of the UK’s capacity building support is integrated within climate finance programmes, recognising the cross-cutting, multi-sectoral needs of developing countries which require integrated support. The below programmes have been selected for their strong focus on capacity building. 6.6.1 Capacity building for mitigation The UK supports several programmes which aim to deliver technical assistance to developing countries to support mitigation action, in multiple areas including finance and technology. The Clean Energy Fund Technical Assistance programme is a £19.5 million programme aiming to improve energy access, to ensure energy security and to transition to low carbon technologies through cost-effective investments that contribute to GHG mitigation, by using technical assistance in the Asia-Pacific region. This capacity building supports the effective development and transfer of low-carbon technologies. The UK supports the Global Innovation Lab through its £2 million contribution, an international forum of experts from donor governments and the private sector that was brought together to accelerate investment in innovative ideas on climate finance. The board of experts scrutinise innovative climate finance projects and help develop them by attracting private sector investment, helping to close the gap of knowledge between governments and the private sector and make it easier for the private sector to invest. So far, it has endorsed 35 instruments across the Global, India and Brazil Labs, and catalysed over $1.4 billion of investment, with one third of this coming from private sector investors. The UK is a member of the NDC Partnership and contributed £2 million to the programme which aims to help turn NDCs into specific strategies and measures, raising ambition globally by enhancing cooperation and support for the successfully implementation of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. The programme provides guidance to support countries, intergovernmental organisations, civil society and the private sector to align their plans and action to achieve the NDCs, and helps to identify possible sources of finance, tools and key data for those who need it while also providing a way for increasing transparency and for sharing lessons and experiences. UK funding has enabled the development of knowledge products and tools for climate action – such as the climate toolbox and climate finance explorer – and has supported the knowledge portal and its In June 2018, the UK announced UK PACT, a new dedicated technical assistance programme to respond to the critical global need for capacity building to address the gap between NDC targets and their implementation. UK PACT works bilaterally with partner countries to deliver demand-led, flexible Technical Assistance in line with country priorities and in areas of UK

3. Provision of financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing country Parties 89 expertise, such as green finance, climate legislation and clean energy. The UK recognises the importance of demand-driven, sustainable capacity building, and UK PACT is designed to reflect this, for example through in-country staff to reflect country priorities and by embedding UK staff through secondments to ensure longer term support. Country demand is matched with technical assistance and skills shares, remaining flexible and adaptative as The UK has committed £60 million to the programme from 2018-2021. £8.4 million has already been invested in an impactful portfolio of projects in Mexico, Colombia and China, and the programme will scale up over the next year. In 2020, PACT will also launch a £12 million Challenge Fund to tackle some of the biggest challenges developing countries face in accelerating their low carbon transitions. Open to all ODA eligible countries, this flexible technical assistance vehicle will have 6 geographically and thematically focused funding windows to ensure the development of an impactful portfolio of projects that are well targeted to the needs of different regions.