These latter are in turn subject Analytical teams in the relevant areas prepare estimates of the emissions or energy savings due to UK Government policies. These are normally based on assessment documents for each measure. Analysts prepare these according to central guidance, which ensures that energy use and GHG emissions are valued consistently across UK Government. Analysts send the policy savings in a standard template and the EEP team checks them to look for any unaccounted overlaps and to ensure internal consistency between energy and emissions savings. The team confirms the model savings with the submitting analysts and departments. The UK updates its GHG projections to inform progress against national carbon budgets and publishes each set of projections. The EEP team improves and adapts the core Energy Demand Model incrementally, quality assuring each change to confirm validity and robustness. (The team responsible for the DDM quality assures any change relating to electricity generation.) The EEP team presents interim and final results to a Steering Group which oversees the process, and stakeholders review draft EEP reports before publication. The independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) reviews the projections In October 2020 the UK published annexes of data to accompany its domestic projections. These included low and high fossil fuel prices and low and high UK GDP rates as variant Crude oil (Brent 1 month), $/bbl 44.00 50.00 55.00 55.00 Gas (NBP), p/therm 36.00 40.00 43.00 43.00 Coal (CIF ARA), $/tonne 48.10 53.30 58.50 58.50 Crude oil (Brent 1 month), $/bbl 106.00 118.00 130.00 130.00 Gas (NBP), p/therm 78.00 83.00 88.00 88.00 Coal (CIF ARA), $/tonne 93.06 101.77 110.48 110.48

302 8th National Communication The EEP team produced these scenarios following a fundamental analysis of the drivers of the main fossil fuel wholesale prices available to the UK within the European energy market. They are not sensitivities to the overall level of fossil fuel prices and do not maintain fuel To investigate the impact of different economic growth rates, the EEP includes scenarios where the economy performs at 25 basis points per annum above or below the reference High UK GDP Growth 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 Low UK GDP Growth 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 Taking the combinations of the different fossil fuel and GDP variants gives four different WAM Reference scenario 372 356 345 344 Low Fossil Fuel Prices 380 369 359 362 High Fossil Fuel Prices 365 341 331 330 Low UK GDP Growth 370 353 341 339 High UK GDP Growth 374 359 349 350 Future values of key variables such as fossil fuel prices, the impacts of policy and demographic/economic growth cannot be known with certainty. However, these variables underpin the UK projections. Understanding the impact of this uncertainty is important in the context of the UK’s aim to reduce emissions through policy intervention, and so it is regularly investigated in EEP publications. Uncertainty analysis presented here is based on the most influential drivers of energy use and emissions, previously identified through sensitivity analysis. The EEP team carries out a Monte Carlo simulation to vary the values of these drivers, firstly obtaining historical distributions of input values then running the projections model on samples from these distributions. For the EEP 2019 publication, we derived the uncertainty analysis from the estimates published in EEP 2018 (used for BR4), due to time constraints at the time of analysis. Because further data on Covid-19 was not yet available, we assumed that the drivers of uncertainty were similar to previous years. The confidence interval originally presented in the EEP 2018 report has been extended to 2040 through a simple extrapolation of the overall

linear trends exhibited by the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval for the final nine years of the projected series. corresponding to the lower 2.5% and upper 97.5% percentiles of the Monte Carlo This analysis excludes the electricity supply industry and possible “structural breaks” in society or the economy which might significantly affect emissions. For example, societal and behavioural step changes or breakthrough technologies like improved storage could have profound impacts on the UK’s energy mix and emissions but are hard to anticipate. Annual total territorial emissions, MtCO2e 95% confidence range 2017 Energy and Emissions Projections EEP 2019 based on uncertainty ranges from EEP 2018 (with extrapolated final years)

304 8th National Communication Upper 95% confidence interval 394 382 376 381 EEP 2019 WAM scenario 372 356 345 344 Lower 95% confidence interval 353 336 325 322 Upper 95% confidence interval, difference from reference 6 7 9 11 Lower 95% confidence interval, difference from reference -5 -5 -6 -6 Upper 95% confidence interval, change on 1990 values -51 -53 -53 -53 Reference, change on 1990 values -54 -56 -57 -57 Lower 95% confidence interval, change on 1990 values 56 -58 -60 -60 EEP 2019 based on uncertainty ranges from EEP 2018 (with extrapolated final years) The methodology only looks at future uncertainty and does not examine uncertainty in historical inputs or emission estimates, such as those before 2020. By 2030, the UK WAM scenario projects GHG emissions will be between 53% and 58% below 1990 levels, with the Reference case estimate 56% below. By 2040, the range is slightly wider with emissions projected between 53% and 60% below 1990 levels. The higher uncertainty for later years reflects the reduced confidence in modelled projections further into the future. 4.9 D ifferences from the last National Communication and the last National Communication, which is based on projections produced in 2017 The main differences between the two projections include additional implemented and adopted polices, some re-estimations of the impact of policies, improved modelling, revised fossil fuel prices, and economic growth assumptions. The projections have also been updated to take into account improvements to the measurement of historical emissions in the UK’s 1990-2018 GHG Inventory, projection methods, emission factors and activity data. The effect of changes to the UK’s 1990-2020 GHG Inventory are summarised in Chapter 2.
The net effect of these changes is to reduce projected emissions in 2030 from 52% below 1990 levels in the Seventh National Communication to 55% below 1990 levels in the Eighth National Communication. The projected GHG reduction of 17 MtCO projections primarily results from the Eighth National Communication projecting fewer CO2 emissions, there are minimal changes in the projections of the other gases. Seventh National Communication Eighth National Communication GHG including LULUCF 1990 2030 Projected change (%) 1990 2030 Projected change (%) Carbon dioxide 599 314 -48 609 296 -51 Nitrous oxide 51 22 -57 50 20 -59 Hydrofluorocarbons 14 4 -70 14 4 -72 Perfluorocarbons 2 <0.5 -84 2 <0.5 -77 Sulphur hexafluoride 1 <0.5 -67 1 1 -57 Nitrogen trifluoride <0.5 <0.5 N/A <0.5 <0.5 N/A Total GHG 803 382 -52 810 365 -55 Primary EEP, uplifted to UNFCCC coverage We report LULUCF emissions in full to be consistent with Inventory Convention reporting. This scope is wider than that under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol and includes estimates for all anthropogenic sources minus sinks. Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation This chapter describes the ways the UK continues to develop its adaptation strategies and plans to deal with unavoidable impacts of climate change and their economic, environmental, The UK has a long history of government support for work on climate change adaptation. In 2008, the Climate Change Act (‘the Act’) created the legal framework for climate change adaptation in the UK. The Act establishes a five-yearly cycle of requirements including UK- wide Climate Change Risk Assessments and National Adaptation Programmes, which set out both the key risks the UK faces from the challenges of climate change, and the key actions that the government, and others, will take to adapt to these in the UK for the following 5 The Act also provides for an Adaptation Reporting Power for the UK government, to require public authorities, and public and private companies that provide infrastructure and related services to report on how they have assessed climate change risks to their work, and their actions to address those risks. The UK government (Defra) also sponsors the independent Adaptation Sub-Committee, publicly known as the Adaptation Committee (AC), of the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The AC was established under the Act to advise Government on adaptation and review progress on implementation of the NAP . The UK government recognises there are many barriers to overcome to adapt effectively to a changing climate. These include limitations in information and awareness of climate risk, clarity on ownership of risks and responses, and the complexity of adapting for an The UK government also recognises that government leadership is often required to ensure solutions are applied across the whole system. The scale of the challenge is made clear in the latest UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment, CCRA3. The UK Government must go further and faster to prepare for the impacts of a warmer world. We will set out how we will meet these challenges in the third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3). CCRA3 also highlighted the international nature of many climate risks which can cause cascading effects across borders and sectors with significant impacts on the UK. The UK government is building on the discussions and key messages from COP26, where adaptation

308 8th National Communication was a focal point championed by the UK Presidency. We will continue learning from others about how to adapt, while also building capacity and sharing best practice. Since the 7th National Communication in 2017 the UK has delivered against the full cycle of adaptation requirements in the Act, two comprehensive, nationwide Climate Change Risk Assessments in January 2017 and January 2022. The third CCRA (CCRA3), published in January 2022, sets out 61 UK-wide climate risks and opportunities cutting across multiple . The UK government’s independent statutory and advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), produced the underpinning 2021 Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk which identified eight priority risk areas for further action between 2021 and 2023; our second National Adaptation Programme (NAP2) and the Third Strategy for Climate Adaptation Reporting in July 2018. The NAP covers plans and policies in England and non-devolved climate adaptation matters. It also sets out the key actions that the government and others will take to adapt to the challenges of climate change in the UK for the following 5 years for dif forms part of the five-yearly cycle of requirements laid down in the Act. NAP2 describes over 150 actions to be taken between 2018 and 2023; and two statutory CCC progress reports on the delivery of NAP2 in July 2019 eview progress in adaptation policy and action. The 2021 progress report concluded that only five of 34 sectors assessed had shown notable progress in the past two years, and no sector is yet scoring highly in lowering its level of risk. There were 50 recommendations in this report, including restoring upland peat by 2045, bringing forward plans to address overheating risk in homes, making the next round of Adaptation Reporting mandatory for all infrastructure sectors, building a strong UK emergency resilience capability against climate shocks; and implementing a public engagement programme on adaptation. In addition, the UK has the UK’s 2018 Climate Projections (UKCP18) assessment of how the UK climate may change in the future. UKCP18 updated the probabilistic projections over land and provided a set of future climate projections for the globe at 60km scale and for the UK at 12km scale. In 2019 projections were downscaled to a level (2.2km) previously only used for short-term meteorological modelling allowing realistic simulation of high impact events, e.g. localised heavy rainfall in summer. Marine projections have been updated for sea-level rise and storm surge. UKCP18 was used to inform the underpinning research and the first UK Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC in December 2020, updated in September 2021. This is an important step in upholding the ent reporting system of the UNFCCC.
It provides a comprehensive overview of domestic and international frameworks and support. The document sets out national circumstances, institutional arrangements and legal frameworks relevant to adaptation, as well as national adaptation priorities, policies and actions. The UK Government is now preparing NAP3, to be published in 2023, which will aim to shape a society which makes timely far-sighted and well-informed decisions to address the

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 309 risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate. The UK Government intends for NAP3 to be the most ambitious NAP yet, with a clear set of objectives, and a robust and systematic set of actions, policies, programmes and investments to meet those objectives. There will be clear timelines, and measurable metrics and progress indicators to measure progress, all linked to the 61 risks in our latest risk assessment. Responsibility for climate change adaptation is shared between the four nations of the United Kingdom. National governments in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland are responsible for their own respective adaptation programmes. In the case of Scotland, there is a devolved statutory framework on adaptation set out through the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. The UK government is responsible for climate change adaptation in England, and for policy areas for which it has UK-wide competence such as security and foreign affairs. The four governments of the UK are committed to working closely together to share best practice and develop UK wide initiatives where appropriate. They accept we must mainstream adaptation throughout government policy in a more holistic way. This will include accounting for the synergies between adaptation and mitigation. To achieve net zero, we must integrate adaptation action into mitigation efforts. Successful mitigation will in turn ensure adaptation remains achievable. This includes the need to ensure our increasingly electrified power system, nature-based solutions and other low carbon infrastructure are resilient to future climate impacts. Building on the UK’s strong approach to climate change adaptation reported in the seventh National Communication, we continue to develop our capability and capacity to adapt to current and predicted climate changes. More specifically, the UK government is also developing its policy response to CCRA3 in the form of NAP3. The NAP’s overarching aim is to shape a society which makes timely, far-sighted, and well- informed decisions to address the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate. It sets out actions and commitments on adapting to climate change from the UK government industry, local authorities, and civil society to build up UK resilience to climate change, covering business, infrastructure, natural environment, health, communities and built environment and local government sectors. The UK’s approach is to integrate consideration of climate risks and adaptation across all policies, programmes, and activities within government, and beyond. This means that the NAP needs to be dynamic, adding further actions and activities as understanding of climate risks develops, and policy opportunities arise. 5.3.2 Scottish Government programme 5.3.2.1 Scottish Government Climate Change Adaptation Programme The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 sets the statutory framework for Scotland to adapt to climate change. The legislation requires a programme for climate change adaptation to be set out every 5 years. This must address risks identified in the statutory UK Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRA), which are also updated every five years, based on independent

310 8th National Communication The second statutory Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP2)1 was launched in September 2019 and outlines how Scotland is preparing for the impacts of climate change over the period to 2024. It sets out policies and proposals to increase the capacity of Scotland’s people, communities, businesses and public sector to adapt to climate change and to respond to the risks to Scotland published in CCRA2. The Programme takes an outcomes-based approach, derived from both the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Scotland’s National Performance Framework2. The seven high level outcomes cover community resilience and climate justice, the economy, infrastructure, the natural and marine environments and international partnerships. In line with the statutory framework, and in response to CCRA33, the Scottish Government is now beginning to prepare for its third statutory Adaptation Programme, as well as continuing to implement the actions set out in the current Programme. Annual reports are required on progress towards achieving the goals of the Adaptation Programme4. Regular independent assessments of how well Scotland is preparing for climate change are also published by the CCC5. 5.3.2.2 Impacts and vulnerability assessment Climate projections from the UK Met Office provide key information about recent climate trends in Scotland, and projections on how these changes are likely to continue and intensify in coming decades. These find that Scotland will experience warmer, wetter winters with more intense rainfall events, hotter drier summers with greater extremes, and that sea levels The evidence underpinning the most recent (2022) CCRA then draws from these projections to identify the priority climate risks specific to Scotland7. The Advice Report, published in June 20218, identifies 61 individual risk areas, covering the natural environment and assets; health, communities and the built environment; business and industries and international dimensions. Statutory Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programmes (see preceding section) are required to respond to the full range of identified risks. SCCAP2 sets out around 170 policies and proposals to build resilience over the period to 2019 and 2024. A full list of these measures can be found in the Programme itself, but some examples are also set out 1 2 3 4 Annual progress reports are available adaptation/ and for 2021: programme-progress-report-2021/ 5 Is Scotland climate ready? – 2022 Report to Scottish scotland-climate-ready-2022-report-to-scottish-parliament/ 6 7 8 Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk)

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 311 There are 14 Local Plan Districts in Scotland, each with their own Flood Risk Management Plan9 setting out actions to reduce the risk of flooding. The Plans are approved by the Scottish Government and published by SEPA as Scotland’s strategic flood risk management authority.
Since 2008, the Scottish Government has made available £42 million per year to enable local authorities to invest in flood risk management actions. Infrastructure Investment Planning The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-2610 outlines a coherent, and strategic approach to delivering Scotland’s National Infrastructure Mission. The Plan focuses on three core strategic themes for guiding investment decisions in Enabling the transition to net zero emissions and environmental sustainability; Driving inclusive economic growth; and building resilient and sustainable places. The Scottish Government is committed to ensuring that Scotland’s transport network is resilient to the impacts of climate change. As part of the Infrastructure Investment Plan, it is investing £60 million to support climate adaptation and resilience of our trunk road network. Land Use and Forestry Strategies The Scottish Government’s third Land Use Strategy11, published in March 2021, has a place-based focus and sets out Scotland’s long-term vision for sustainable land use, their objective and key-policies for delivery. Climate change adaptation is integrated throughout the Strategy as is the positive role that both nature-based solutions and wider green and blue infrastructure can have in helping Scotland to achieve its various national targets Scotland’s Forestry Strategy12 presents the Scottish Government’s 50-year vision for Scotland’s forests and woodlands and sets out a 10-year framework for action, including in relation to improving the resilience of forests and woodlands. It has the principles of sustainable forest management at its core and recognises the need for better integration of forestry with other land uses and businesses, reinforcing the principle of ‘the right tree, in the right place, for the right purpose’. Support for capacity building domestically The Scottish Government funds the Adaptation Scotland programme13 to support capacity building and action on adaptation by the public sector, businesses and communities in Scotland. This includes developing Scotland’s pioneering place-based approach to climate change adaptation. The programme also supports public bodies to develop adaptation capabilities that enable them to take adaptation action at the right time and in an effective way through the award-winning Adaptation Capability Framework. 9 10 scotland-2021-22-2025-26/pages/2/ 11 land/#:~:text=Scotland%27s%20Third%20Land%20Use%20Strategy%20sets%20out%20our,and%20the%- 20benefits%20we%20get%20from%20our%20land. 12 13

312 8th National Communication Support for adaptation internationally The Scottish Government champions climate justice, recognising that those who experience the greatest impacts may need more support to adapt. At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, it announced trebling of the Climate Justice Fund14 to £36 million over four years to support In October 2019, the Scottish Government signed an Adhesion Declaration to join the global Regions Adapt initiative as a framework for regional governments’ action, collaboration and reporting on climate change adaptation. 5.3.3 Welsh Government Programme The Act requires Welsh Ministers to lay reports before the Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliament on the objectives, actions and future priorities of Welsh Ministers around the impacts of climate change. This requirement is further strengthened by the Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, which sets out a number of overarching Well-being Goals that apply to a number of public sector organisations in Wales. Climate change is integral to all the Well-being Goals and there is specific reference to a ‘resilient Wales’, which includes resilience to the effects of climate change. Climate change is also a key element of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales’ role and the Future Trends Report, and Public Service Board well-being assessments are required to take into account the latest CCRA. Each 5-yearly CCRA and the Climate Change Committee’s independent advice that informs it, are statutory requirements under the Act. The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 also sets out further provisions in relation to climate change, including requirements for the sustainable management of natural resources as well as setting out governance arrangements for coastal and flood management. The Welsh Government published its second climate change adaptation plan for Wales, Prosperity for A Climate Conscious Wales, in December 2019. The plan sets out the actions Welsh Government is taking across all relevant policy sectors to build resilience to the impacts arising from climate change. A number of significant, strategic and interlinked policy developments have taken place in Wales that will help to establish a robust framework for The current Natural Resources Policy highlights the need to align all our policies to the delivery of the national priorities identified within it and sets out how this will be achieved. This cross-sector process is ongoing but has already been applied to the Planning Policy Wales consultation, Future Wales, the National Development Framework and the development of our Sustainable Farming Scheme. Natural Resources Wales published its Area Statements15 in April 2020, which support the national priorities within the Natural Resources Policy. In addition, we have recently seen publication of the updated National Development Framework, the Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy, Water Resource Management Plans, the National Peatland Action Programme, the launch of the National Forest for Wales, and consultation on the proposed new Sustainable Farming The Welsh Government is currently reviewing and updating its policy approach in response to the Advice Report, published in June 2021. The next national climate change adaptation plan for Wales is due to be published in 2024. 14 15

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 313 5.3.4 Northern Ireland Government Programme 5.3.4.1 Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NICCAP): In Northern Ireland, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) takes the lead on ensuring that the Northern Ireland Executive fulfils its legislative duties in relation to Climate Change Adaptation arising from the Act. In this function, DAERA chairs and facilitates a Cross-Departmental Climate Change Adaptation Working Group which includes representation from all Northern Ireland Executive Departments. DAERA also works closely with Defra and the other Devolved Administrations of Scotland and Wales on matters relating to climate adaptation. The current NI Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NICCAP2)16, which was published in September 2019 in response to CCRA2, focuses on five key priority areas and seven outcome objectives in response to the risk areas identified in the preceding CCRA.
NICCAP2 which covers the period 2019-2024 takes account of cross cutting issues identified in CCRA2 and supersedes the previous NICCAP1 which covered the period 2014-2019. The NICCAP2, for the first time, included a Chapter which focused on Civil Society and Local Government contribution to adaptation action. To assist with wider stakeholder engagement with Local Government and Civil Society, DAERA funded the establishment of the Climate NI Project which is governed by a Project Steering Group with representation from a wide 16 Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 Final-Laid.PDF

314 8th National Communication Additionally, through the Climate NI Project, a Local Government Climate Action Network (LGCAN) has been established, which includes representation from Northern Ireland Local Councils which assists with information and knowledge exchange with environmental NGOs, business sectors, academia and local Government. A core aim of the Climate NI project is to share best practice, increase the understanding of the impacts of climate change in Northern Ireland, to share knowledge, promote action and provide independent advice. Climate NI provides a vital link between environmental NGOs, business sectors, academia and Government. Through the Climate NI Project a Planning Toolkit called NIAdapts17 was developed to support Councils in the development of Climate Change Adaptation Plans. The Advice Report included a Northern Ireland specific summary report. The CCCs advice formed the basis of CCRA3, and they will inform the development of the next Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NICCAP3) which is due to be published in In advance of the development of the next Adaptation Programme, DAERA are currently undertaking a mid-term review of the current Adaptation Programme. This will provide an opportunity to both review current adaptation progress and forward look towards the development of the next Adaptation Programme in response to the latest independent assessment by the CCC and CCRA3. The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 received Royal Assent on 6 June 2022. This new Act complements the existing adaptation provisions under the Act, in particular through the introduction of a legal requirement for the CCC to undertake an independent assessment and make recommendations in relation to the Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme three years after laying future Adaptation Programmes. 5.4 Expected impacts of climate change For the UK, parties can also draw upon impacts studies using the latest climate projections UKCP18 and CCRA3 as mentioned above. Climate modelling in the UK is led through the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), with input from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). This relationship ensures that the world-leading modelling capability of the UK, feeds directly into UK government and informs policy. Significant recent developments, such as the upgrade to supercomputing at the Met Office, have led to more detailed and higher resolution climate models, which provide more accurate information on climate variability and change to decision-makers and society. The latest collection of Met Office climate models (HadGEM3) shows many significant improvements relative to previous versions. This improved model underpins UKCP18 as well as the UK Earth System model (UKESM), which represented the UK contribution to the latest coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) and the current IPCC General climate change trends projected over UK land for the 21st century in UKCP18 are broadly consistent with earlier projections (UKCP09), showing an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers along with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremes. This is seen in the probabilistic (25km), global (60km), regional (12km) and local (2.2km) projections. 17

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 315 Due to new treatment of land ice contribution, sea level rise projections for UKCP18 are higher than UKCP09. For example, the upper end of the range of sea level rise in UKCP18, for the high emission scenario for London, is around 25 cm higher than in UKCP09 at 2100. This is not unexpected and has been factored into adaptation planning. Due to vertical land movement, sea level rise in the North of the UK is generally lower than in the South. Current endeavours in UK climate services seek to maximise the utilisation of UKCP18 and engage the user community on what scientific advances could trigger the need for future projections. The UK Climate Resilience Programme uses UKCP18 to build the evidence on climate risks, adaptation, and services in the UK. It has delivered several high impact outputs to date, including climate risk indicators to support climate risk assessments and FUTURE- DRAINAGE, a project providing estimates of changes in rainfall for use in drainage design. CCRA3 has presented strong evidence that even under low warming scenarios the UK will be subject to a range of significant and costly impacts unless significant further action is taken now. Full details of the risk assessment are contained in a series of reports published by the CCC which are fully endorsed by the UK government and the other three governments. The Technical Report for CCRA3 identifies 61 climate risks and some opportunities cutting across multiple sectors of our society. It identifies a wide range of potential costly impacts of climate change including on health and productivity, affecting many of our households, businesses, and public services. Impacts range from a deterioration in soil health and agricultural productivity to impacts on water availability and thereby our alternative energy supply. For example, unless we take further action, under a 2°C by 2100 warming scenario annual damages from flooding for non-residential properties across the UK is expected to increase by 27% by 2050 and 40% by 2080.
At 4°C this increases to 44% and CCRA3 prioritises the following eight risk areas for action in the next two years in the risks to the viability and diversity of terr estrial and freshwater habitats and species om increased flooding and drought; • risks to natural carbon stor es and sequestration from multiple hazards; ops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple climate hazards; • risks to supply of food, goods and vital services due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks; • risks to people and the economy fr om climate-related failure of the power system; • risks to human health, wellbeing and pr oductivity from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings; and • multiple risks to the UK from climate change impacts overseas. aluation Report[1] provides an analysis of the economic costs of approximately 60 key risks and opportunities that the UK will face from climate change, looking at the potential costs for 2 and 4°C pathways at mid- and late century. The report identifies 8 risks with potentially ‘Very High’ impacts by 2050 (£billions per year):

316 8th National Communication • risks to infrastructur e networks from cascading failures; • risks to health and wellbeing fr • risks to finance, investment and insurance; • risks to the finance sector; and • risks to UK food availability. eas, valuation evidence is presented without existing or planned adaptation. Estimates represent impacts to the whole UK economy, but impacts are likely to vary significantly across localities or particular areas and groups. It was not possible to provide economic estimates of all 61 risks and opportunities due to a lack of evidence; 14 risks do not have an indicative score as a result. Finally, these estimates present large ranges due to a highly uncertain future in climate change, and large variations between 2° C and The Valuation Report estimates that, for these eight risks identified by the CCC, economic damages by 2050 under 2°C could exceed £1 billion per annum. For 36 of the risks, damages could be at least £10 million p.a. Other sources of evidence suggest that, by 2045, the cost of climate change to the UK could be at least 1% of GDP . The CCRA3 Technical Report also shows that in most risk areas we need to take more action, and there are many actions we can take to improve resilience that would be good value for money, including many low cost ‘low regret actions’. The evidence shows that we must do more to build climate change into any decisions that have long-term effects, such as in new housing or infrastructure, to avoid often costly remedial actions in the future. And we must consider low probability but high impact events arising from, for example, high warming scenarios and interdependent or cascading risks. 5.6.1 R isks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and This section sets out specific examples of adaptation action in the UK, mainly related to the eight priority risks identified in CCRA3. The Environment Act’s new requirements for biodiversity net gain will begin in 2023, meaning most types of new development will deliver improvements of 10% or more for biodiversity. We are working in accordance with the principles in the Environment Act 2021 to ensure that development results in environmental improvement rather than merely preventing harm. The Advice Report provides compelling evidence of the benefits to society of the natural environment. It explains the threat climate change poses to UK biodiversity, at a time when it is already degrading rapidly – the abundance of UK terrestrial and freshwater species has declined by 13% since 1970, and species distribution showed an average 5% decline over the same period. Increased temperatures and extreme events, such as drought and wildfire, pose the biggest threats while upland areas face particularly acute risks (75% of present- day upland species face a potential decline in climate suitability by 2100 under a medium

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 317 The Advice Report recommends reducing pollution and creating suitable conditions for existing species. Active management of habitats can also improve their resilience. Such actions should be underpinned by enhanced monitoring and surveillance. From the two years from 2021, there is time-limited opportunity to build adaptation explicitly into policies to protect terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species through the review of environmental policy following EU Exit. We outline our current actions below and accept that to meet the increasing challenges to our natural environment we must raise ambition as we The Nature Compact agreement at the G7 and the Environment Act 2021 include a new, historic, legally binding target to halt the decline in species abundance by 2030. Defra will set out our approach to delivering these commitments in the refreshed Environmental The 25 Year Environment Plan committed the UK Government to establishing a Nature Recovery Network (NRN) – an expanded, improved and increasingly connected web of wildlife rich places across England. Establishing the NRN will support our goal of halting biodiversity loss by improving and connecting habitats and species. In doing this, wider benefits will accrue, such as landscapes more resilient to climate change through improved ecosystem function. Larger and less fragmented wildlife sites will improve the resilience of populations to fluctuating weather conditions and extreme events. Better connected habitat will also allow some species (or their genes) to spread across the landscape and colonise new areas that may be more suitable for them in a changing climate. Our overall goal by 2042 is to expand the existing resource of wildlife-rich habitat by 500,000 hectares and progress our goal of restoring 75% of the area of protected sites to favourable condition. The UK Government acknowledge the importance of monitoring and surveillance to ensure quantifiable results and impacts. Evaluation will be informed by data gathered at a national and local level including funding, impacts and spatial data. We recognise the importance of reducing water pollution and restoring the water environment.
Statutory river basin management plans provide an overarching management framework for the water environment that addresses risks both to public health and water ecology. These integrated plans draw on action across a range of areas including Catchment Sensitive Farming, chemicals, physical modification, and EA oversight of the water sector. A further £124m of new money for the Nature for Climate Fund has been announced to enable more opportunities for farmers and landowners to support net zero through land use change. This will ensure a total spend of more than £750m by 2025 on peat restoration, woodland creation and management, increasing the size and therefore resilience of the woodland resource and providing opportunities to implement adaptive actions in We are working to limit the threat of invasive non-native species to UK biodiversity. The GB Invasive Non-Native Species Strategy sets chy of priorities to protect our terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments – including prevention, early detection (surveillance, monitoring and rapid response) and finally long-term management and control; e currently taking to raise awareness through the Be Plant Wise, Check Clean Dry and Invasive Species Week initiatives; and • the importance of strategic r

318 8th National Communication Risk analysis and horizon scanning are also central to the strategy. These are used to identify non-native species that pose a potential threat to the UK – both of which consider the impact of climate change on the ability of a non-native to establish and cause adverse impacts. We are committed to protecting the UK’s terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species and so we will scale up our actions on ecosystem restoration, the establishment of nature- based solutions and building resilience of species and habitats to climate change. Increasing the size, condition and number of protected sites while reducing fragmentation by habitat restoration, creation and management are important factors in helping ensure resilience and are at the heart of our approach. Defra’s Nature Recovery green paper includes, among other things, a broader exploration of our approach to site designation. isks to soil health from increased flooding and drought The Advice Report sets out the importance of well-functioning, fertile soils and how climate threats to UK soils can exacerbate existing human pressures on the environment. Healthy soil is an important natural capital resource, underpinning a range of environmental, economic, and societal benefits, including increased biodiversity, flood mitigation, improved water quality, recycling nutrients and providing multiple ecosystem services and outcomes notably for agricultural and forestry production. Soil degradation in England and Wales costs between £0.9bn and £1.4bn a year due to remedial action, loss of productivity and the negative impact on rivers, water management and water quality. The report acknowledges that soil health features in all the current national adaptation plans across the UK. However, it calls for a comprehensive soil monitoring strategy to understand and measure progress on climate change adaptation; and targeted interventions and land management strategies to improve soil health. Further actions the Advice Report soil-friendly farming practices, including no-till and precision farming; • good water management on agricultural and for ested land to keep soil moisture • investment in soil monitoring to understand the current condition of soils and the future success of adaptation actions. nment accepts the importance of addressing risks to soil health. There are a number of existing regulations, such as the Crop Residues (Burning) Regulations 1993 (Environmental Protection Act 1990), the Reduction and Prevention of Agricultural Diffuse Pollution (England) Regulations 2018 (Farming Rules for Water), and the Agricultural Land (Removal of Surface Soil) Act 1953. These all protect agricultural soil from specific degradation issues, i.e. burning and therefore loss of soil organic matter, erosion and trampling through poor land management near water courses, and removal of surface soil. We understand that more action is needed and outline our current priorities and We are committed, as part of the 25 Year Environment Plan, to achieving sustainably managed soils by 2030. A Written Ministerial Statement in October 2021 set out Defra‘s commitment to a new Soil Health Action Plan for England. The Action Plan will provide a single strategic approach to soil health, taking a natural capital approach through considering the numerous biological, chemical and physical attributes of soil. The Sustainable Farming Incentive is a key focus of the Action Plan and will reward farmers for actions to improve soil health. Two new soil standards will be rolled out from 2022. The Improved Grassland Soils and the Arable and Horticultural Soils standards will promote

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 319 actions that improve soil structure. This will result in increasing soil capacity to absorb, hold and drain water and so improve soil resilience to the impacts of flood and drought. We agree with the recommendations on soil monitoring and under the Soil Health Action Plan for England, is developing a Soil Health Monitoring Scheme to produce a new, robust data baseline. A healthy soils indicator is also being developed, as set out in the 25 Year Environment Plan, which will consider the key attributes of healthy soil including its physical, biological and chemical properties. The indicator will feed into the Soil Health Monitoring Scheme and could inform future policy and land management practices as well as any future targets for soil health under the Environment Act 2021. Separately, a new Soil Structure Measuring and Monitoring Scheme is being developed to enable visual assessments to be carried out by farmers and land managers (community/ citizen science) across all land use/soil types. Engaging farmers and land managers in the process will increase knowledge of the benefits of healthy soil structure. This will provide a user-friendly way of measuring long-term trends, support future incentive schemes and create a baseline that will feed into any future soil health target. Defra has established the Lowland Agricultural Peat Task Force to recommend ways of improving the condition of England’s lowland farmed peatlands.
The Task Force is currently exploring new solutions including paludiculture (the practice of farming on wet land, such as rewetted bogs and fens). The Task Force will present its findings to the UK Government in summer 2022. We accept that there have been gaps in preventing soil degradation and are committed to improving soil health. This will include conducting further research on agricultural and land management techniques and systems that improve soil health, understanding the complexity of the soil biome and how soils can be managed to optimise biodiversity and the applicability of agro-ecological forms of agriculture that promote soil health. isks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards The Advice Report describes the pressure human activity is exerting on the UK’s natural carbon stores and how this is being exacerbated by climate change. It identifies UK peatlands as one of the most important terrestrial natural stores for carbon – with equivalent 2 storage which is 25 times larger than the UK’s total current annual emissions and an order of magnitude higher than the carbon stored in trees. The effects of climate change alone could reduce the area of land suitable for peat forming vegetation in the uplands by between 50% and 65% by the 2050s. Carbon stored in coastal and marine habitats, referred to as “blue carbon” is also thought to be a critical store, and the report calls for a baseline assessment of the total stock to be completed urgently. Achieving net zero by 2050 is in part dependent on the removal of CO and reducing emissions by utilising nature-based solutions. CCRA3 warns that losses from existing natural carbon stores would threaten this target. To avoid permanent losses the spatial targeting of land use policies to match changing conditions, including consideration of climate change impacts in decisions over species choice in tree estoration of degraded peatlands and other wetlands; and e recognise that we must safeguard our natural carbon stores from climate related threats

320 8th National Communication We plan to reduce the increased threat of fire and drought to peatland landscapes by restoring peatland, supporting Lantra18 accredited Vegetation Fire training modules and using wildfire management plans to mitigate and adapt to risk at both site and landscape scales. We will reduce the threat from flooding by enabling peatland to hold more water and to manage its flow better. The England Peat Action Plan 2021 (EPAP) outlines the strategic framework for peatland protection, management and restoration, and has climate adaptation as part of its core objectives. An implementation plan for the EPAP is due to be published in 2023 and will include a trajectory of restoration and responsible management over the next 20 years. We will provide an interim update on progress on implementation of the plan Our new environmental land management schemes will provide the main delivery mechanism for peatland restoration after 2024-25. To further support peatland restoration, government is implementing a range of policies that will mobilise private investment. The Natural Environment Investment Readiness Fund has been launched and a package of reforms to the Peatland Code, including expanding it to cover more peatland types, will be We recognise that blue carbon habitats also play an important role in preventing biodiversity loss and supporting adaptation and resilience to climate change, alongside carbon sequestration benefits. At present, 38% of UK waters are in Marine Protected Areas, including the majority of saltmarsh and seagrass habitats. Our focus is now on ensuring these are effectively managed. Defra has also committed to designating a number of pilot Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs) in England, including areas containing important habitats for long term carbon storage. Ecological recovery within HPMAs will increase the resilience of the marine environment to climate change and enable it to adapt to climate change impacts. We are continuing to build the evidence base for blue carbon including baseline information, such as the report on blue carbon stocks and fluxes published by the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture, which collated over 500 records of blue carbon measurements from coastal wetlands and the seabed. The report provides a new collation of UK based measurements and highlights where further scientific action should be focused. At COP26 the UK announced its intention to establish a new cross-administration UK Blue Carbon Evidence Partnership to progress the evidence base on blue carbon habitats in the UK, advancing our shared commitment to protecting and restoring blue carbon habitats. The first meeting of the Partnership was held in May 2022, with representatives from across the We accept the Advice Report’s conclusions on the importance of spatial targeting of land use policies. The Forestry Commission recently published a decision-making framework for peat protection and woodland establishment which provides guidance to protect peatland carbon stocks from inappropriate woodland planting. The England Trees Action Plan (2021) (ETAP) includes an action to develop new guidance that will help determine when afforested peat should be restored to bog, and to minimise impacts on peaty soils from tree planting. Additional commitments in the plan include developing metrics that allow decision-makers to assess the realistic costs of forest to bog restoration and improving land use decision-making through the new peatland map data (due to be completed in 2024). The UK Forestry Standard (UKFS) is the national standard for sustainable forest management that requires consideration of climate change in woodland creation proposals, woodland 18 An award body for land-based industries in the UK and Republic of Ireland. They provide training courses and nationally recognised qualifications delivered through training partners. Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 321 management plans and contingency planning. This includes increasing resilience to the risk of wildfire by using a wildfire management plan approach which is based on the Forestry Commission’s Practice Guidance and upskilling operators and managers using its Lantra accredited Vegetation Fire training modules.
This will provide robust guidance on forest design and management to minimise wildfire risk at the site and landscape scale, working in partnership across the Defra group and landowners. A new UKFS Practice Guide on adapting forest and woodland management for the changing climate will be published in 2022. Additionally, the Nature for Climate Fund includes a suite of delivery mechanisms that will enhance the resilience of the overall woodland resource and provide opportunities for new native productive woodlands that are adapted to the future climate. The English Woodland Creation Offer is a recently launched woodland creation grant which includes scoring for climate change resilience. ETAP recognises that while trees will be an important part of our efforts to reduce emissions, trees themselves are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It therefore commits government to the following support the Forestry and Climate Change Partnership in implementing its adaptation plan, to launch a climate change competition to highlight best practice and the need to adapt new and existing woodlands to the ef • maintain our membership of the Eur opean Forest Genetic Resources Programme to promote the conservation and sustainable use of forest genetic resources in Europe. We will also produce a Woodland Resilience Implementation Plan (WRIP) to improve the ecological condition of our woodlands and increase their resilience to threats and pressures, including climate change. Forestry England will develop a Forest Resilience Strategy, including specific and measurable actions and targets and a forest resilience indicator to monitor the resilience status and condition of the nation’s forests. The forestry and woodland measures set out above equally apply to Priority Risk Areas 1 and 4. UK soil contains around 10 billion tonnes of organic carbon. However, our latest data suggest that arable farmland soils have been losing carbon relative to levels measured in 1978. We recently published a Written Ministerial Statement setting out the government’s commitment to produce a new Soil Health Action plan for England. A key action within the plan includes the development of a healthy soil indicator where soil carbon is being considered as one of many key soil variables. Further actions on soils can be found under Priority Risk Area 2. We are taking further action to meet this risk, to protect and restore precious nature-based solutions and unlock the many ecosystem services they provide. To ensure our ambition of restoring 25% of this peatland further research is required to explore new ways of managing water across lowland landscapes. The impact of new methods on domestic food production, water availability and flood risk will also need to be modelled and piloted. isks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple climate hazards The Advice Report sets out how climate change will pose a direct threat to crops, livestock and commercial trees. The report details how the UK’s agricultural and forestry productivity are essential for both future domestic food security and achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The productivity in these sectors is dependent on the health and diversity of terrestrial The Advice Report also outlines how effective adaptation measures will depend on the development and establishment of new varieties of crops, technologies and management practices and warns that such developments can have significant lead times. The report

322 8th National Communication recommends beneficial actions for the next five years which include better long-term seasonal forecasts for land managers, assessment of land use options given changing water availability and land use strategies that bring climate change mitigation and adaptation together. It concludes that risk assessment and planning is more evident in the forestry sector than agriculture. It also highlights that there is an opportunity to improve climate resilience in forthcoming national and devolved policies for land management, net zero and nature protection. Defra support the conclusions made in the Advice Report including that climate hazards pose an increasing threat to crops, livestock and commercial trees. We are working to address this risk and more detail is provided in the recently published Net Zero Strategy. This includes a total spend of over £750 million on peat restoration, woodland creation and management in England through the Nature for Climate Fund. for the three new environmental land management schemes will support farmers to deliver public goods, including adapting to climate change. Defra is also developing measures through ETAP and WRIP to protect commercial trees. To help address risks to agriculture and forestry from pests and pathogens Defra intend to publish a new GB Plant Biosecurity Strategy in July 2022, although this may not happen until September 2022. We understand the importance of enhancing the productivity, sustainability and resilience of the main UK crops. We are supporting a major, long-term research platform, known as Genetic Improvement Networks (GINs), for the genetic improvement of arable crops and fresh produce. This includes work to increase the resilience of major UK crops to climate change and associated pest and disease risks. Each GIN includes internationally renowned scientists in crop genetic improvement, undertaking work to identify and characterise pre-breeding resources with improved productivity and resilience to major biotic and abiotic stresses. We currently fund four GINs, focusing on oilseed rape, vegetables, wheat and pulses which share a common governance structure in the form of the ‘Defra Crop Genetic Improvement Platform’ to bring the research together more effectively in this space. Defra awarded £6.5 million over the five-year period (2018 to 2023) towards the GINs. We are also expanding the scope of our breeding work to increase the sustainability and resilience of a wider range of agricultural products. This includes an ongoing project to scope the potential for a forage crop network, and a recently launched competition for a similar scoping study on soft fruit. Following recent consultation, we will be taking a step-by- step approach to amending regulations to enable the development and innovation of new genetic technologies including gene editing.
Gene editing could unlock crops and animals that are more resilient to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather and certain pests, by speeding up changes that could have occurred more slowly via traditional We continue to support the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Transforming Food Production (TFP) Initiative, which has already made a public investment of £90 million over four years to support the rapid development and deployment of advanced precision agricultural solutions. This initiative is enhanced by an additional £14.5m of Defra funding to support collaborative agricultural research and development under the recently tendered “Farming Innovation Pathways” Competition. We also announced the first £17.5m share of funding in our Farming Innovation Programme, which will encourage collaborative farmer-led research and development to enhance productivity and improve environmental outcomes in England’s agriculture and horticulture sectors throughout the agricultural transition, as well as setting the sectors on the path to net zero. Defra is also working closely with the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 323 Services to better align our crop breeding work with pressures identified in their analyses of the effects of climate change on farming. We agree that innovation in technologies to manage water and nutrient input is important. The Water Management sub-theme of the forthcoming Farming Transformation Fund is intended to support farmers by providing grant scheme funding for investments such as the construction of water storage reservoirs or abstraction or irrigation pumps. This will help support farmers during dry periods and bring benefits through more secure water supply, while helping to reduce peak requirements for water when agricultural and public demand for water is often at their highest. We aim to support projects which will reduce the environmental burden while increasing the resilience of public supply during dry weather. We are committed to supporting research and development to increase the sustainability and resilience of a wider range of agricultural products. We are currently refreshing our Agriculture and Food Climate Service in partnership with the Met Office to align the work more closely with challenges identified by CCRA3 and to develop novel solutions to enhance resilience in There is a great deal of emerging policy targeted at achieving net zero, much of which – such as peatland restoration and tree planting – will contribute to adaptation. Simultaneously, efforts are underway across Defra to support adaptation and resilience in the agricultural sector with resulting reductions in agricultural emissions. We will continue to develop evidence led policy to deliver climate mitigation and adaptation benefits, principally through our environmental land management schemes. This will be supported by our new Agri- innovation Minister portfolio. 5.6.5 Risks to supply of food, goods and vital services due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks The Advice Report sets out how most products, including food, finished goods, components and materials, have complex – often international – supply chains. Extreme weather is already causing supply chain disruption and exposure to climate hazards is set to increase. Climate hazards can affect the supply of food, goods and vital services, as well as the infrastructure and routes by which these are transported. Adaptation actions involve the provision of better information, diversification of supply chain risks and building better capacity to manage, share and transfer risk. It highlights that there is an important role for new technology and Although some action has already been taken by businesses, it is unclear whether action will keep pace with the increasing risk or how effective it will be specifically in managing climate or weather-related disruption. It concludes that enhancing supply chain resilience should be a priority for recovering planning from the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and should also be a factor in the development of new trade agreements as trade patterns change following EU-Exit. Businesses can be supported through ensuring information and advice is available, especially for smaller businesses, and by implementing stronger reporting requirements for businesses and infrastructure providers, such as ports and airports. We accept that climate change is posing increasing risks to supply chains. We outline our current priorities below but understand more will be required in the next eighteen months to address this complex risk area. We are examining risks to critical non-food supply chains including identifying risks from climate change and advising lead government departments on actions to improve resilience of those supply chains into the future. Such actions

324 8th National Communication • exploring options to diversify the UK’ s supply chains to minimise disruption; national partners to support supply chain climate resilience and building domestic UK capability in key sectors; omoting the UK as a centre of resilience and risk expertise, with a focus on speciality insurance underwriting, green investment financing, and environmental advisory services including consultancy and standards assurance; • working with the insurance specialty market and other r to help build capacity in developed and emerging markets and develop and build commercial opportunities for UK firms in the finance, insurance and nment’s response to risks to finance, led by HM Treasury. We also agree that insurance can play a critical role in transferring or mitigating the risks that climate change poses to supply chains. The Business of Resilience campaign, an initiative by the Department of International Trade (DIT) in partnership with City of London Corporation, has been created to promote the UK as a global hub for Insurance Resilience Solutions to international buyers. This will have the eventual result of increasing exports of UK speciality insurance and resilience services as well as promoting the attractiveness of the UK as an investment destination for speciality insurers and resilience service providers. We support the development of global sustainability disclosure standards, including the work of the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation to create an International Sustainability Standards Board to develop a global baseline corporate reporting standard for sustainability.
Further, in recognition of rising private sector interest and action on the financial materiality of nature-related considerations, we are committed to working with international partners to catalyse a market-led coalition on nature-related financial risks and reporting in its 2019 Green Finance Strategy. Supported by the government from its inception, the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures will provide a framework for corporates and financial institutions to report and act on evolving nature-related risks to support a shift in global financial flows away from nature-negative outcomes and toward nature-positive outcomes. Domestically, in November 2020 the Chancellor announced the UK’s world-leading intention to make disclosure requirements aligned with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations fully mandatory across the UK economy by 2025. Since that announcement, the UK government and regulators have made significant progress towards implementing the TCFD. In July 2021, the Chancellor announced that the UK would go further, with new disclosure requirements to elicit decision-useful sustainability-related information. In October 2021, the government published Greening A Roadmap to Sustainable Investing setting out details of new, economy-wide Sustainability Disclosure Requirements that will require companies, asset managers, asset owners and investment products to disclose their sustainability-related risks, opportunities and impacts. We accept that climate hazards will cause increasing threats to our supply chains through our infrastructure and transport routes. Consideration will need to be given to the potential vulnerabilities for the transport system including rail, roads, ports and airports. The Department for Transport (DfT) is currently drafting an internal Climate Change Adaptation DfT strategy. The strategy will explore potential action against all risks identified by the CCC, expectations, interdependencies, standards, and scenario planning across policy areas and

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 325 We support the report’s conclusions which are consistent with the recently passed Agriculture Act (2020) which includes a requirement to regularly report to Parliament about food security. The UK Food Security Report will inform future policy on UK food security, and was first published in 2021, with subsequent reports to be produced at least every three years. The report considers both global and domestic food security, including global food availability, UK food sources, UK food chains, household security, and consumer safety and confidence. Data is drawn from both national and international data sources, including UK National Statistics as well as data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations. Further policies impacting the food system will be set out in the forthcoming government Food Strategy, which will support the development of a food system that is sustainable, resilient and affordable, that will support people to live healthy lives, and that will protect We understand that the risks to UK food availability, safety and quality will increase throughout this century. We also acknowledge how it is often difficult to quantify that risk. Defra is exploring what additional research and analysis is required to understand and 5.6.6 Risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system The Advice Report describes how, as the UK becomes more dependent on electricity as our dominant energy source, people and the economy will be increasingly exposed and vulnerable to electricity system failures. We recognise that risks from climate-related hazards will become more common as our dependence on electricity grows and the variability of our weather increases. As noted in the Net Zero Strategy, low carbon power, mostly from intermittent renewable generation, is expected to become the predominant form of energy in 2050. It will account for approximately 50% or higher share of final energy consumption, up from 10% in 2019, as light transport vehicles and domestic heating electrify. The Advice Report recommends that the government works with the regulator (Ofgem) and the industry to review the approach to electricity system design and risk assessment in the context of the more central role of electricity in the UK’s future energy system. Climate resilience must also be reflected in the wider energy system governance and in planning conditions for new infrastructure. The report concludes that the risks can be managed, but that ensuring the UK has a power system that is resilient to future climate impacts is now Guaranteeing that homes and businesses have the certainty of secure energy supplies they can rely on now and in the future is an absolute priority. The government supports these recommendations and is committed to improving and maintaining the resilience of UK energy infrastructure, networks and assets in the face of future system changes and climate risks. We are working with the energy industry, regulators and other stakeholders to reduce vulnerabilities and ensure an effective response to actual or potentially disruptive incidents to We accept that climate resilience must be reflected in the wider energy system governance. The Heat and Building Strategy sets out the principle of taking a ‘whole-building’ and whole- system approach to building decarbonisation, considering the interventions most appropriate for the whole building, as well as local and regional suitability and how best to manage We acknowledge the climate risks of an increasingly renewable-based electricity system, particularly from offshore wind. Alongside working with Ofgem and National Grid ESO to

326 8th National Communication manage these risks, we are currently considering how to ensure flexible demand and supply is taken into account. We are working to decarbonise flexible firm capacity to ensure when renewable output is lower, we have secure capacity which meets our net zero ambition. working to deliver a smart and flexible electricity system with Ofgem, that will underpin our electricity security and the transition to net zero in the transitioning to a o energy smart systems and flexibility plan 2021; eviewing how the Capacity Market will need to align with net zero by bringing forward more low carbon capacity and better address emerging security of supply investigating how large-scale, long-duration electricity storage could facilitate o system and its role in the efficient and cost-effective delivery of We accept that the decarbonisation of transport and the associated reliance on electricity needs to be considered.
An internal Climate Change Adaptation DfT strategy is currently being drafted and more information can be found under the risk area explained under isks to human health, wellbeing and productivity from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings The Advice Report outlines the significant risks of overheating in buildings as UK temperatures increase and heatwaves become more common. High temperatures will increase risks to life, wellbeing and productivity and are already impacting people in the UK. UK Climate Projections show a hot summer is likely to occur every other year by 2050, by which time the number of heat-related deaths could more than triple from today’s level without additional adaptation action; from around 2,000 per year to around 7,000. Higher temperatures can impact productivity if indoor environments are not adapted to them due to discomfort, staff absences, dissatisfaction and impacts on work performance, and analysis has indicated that preventing productivity losses and cooling associated with increasing temperatures will provide substantial benefits to communities in avoided costs. Higher temperatures will impact both homes and non-domestic buildings, affecting wider services. For example, the future delivery of health and social care will be impacted by higher temperatures due to both health and productivity impacts, and higher temperatures may have further implications if, as trends indicate, there is an increased proportion of home-based care rather than in hospitals and in care homes. Building designs and technology are available that can greatly reduce occupant exposure to heat while ensuring high levels of thermal efficiency. Beneficial adaptation actions include the updating of building regulations and other policy measures to address overheating through passive cooling measures like better shading, reflective surfaces and green cover. The report warns that with 300,000 homes due to be built each year across the UK there is a major risk of lock-in if they are not planned and built to address overheating alongside energy efficiency Overheating in buildings has been highlighted as a key risk for the health and productivity of people in the UK. We have outlined our current priorities below and will develop these further as we produce NAP3 and have introduced a new requirement on overheating into the Building Regulations. This prioritises addressing overheating through passive measures including reducing solar gains and sufficient removal of heat. Statutory guidance has been produced to accompany the new requirement. Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 327 The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) is working with its arms’ length bodies and other stakeholders in the health and care sector to ensure the health system is better adapted to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is currently developing the Single Adverse Weather and Health Plan which aims to mainstream adaptation activity. This work exploring steps that can be taken to impr ove the resilience of health and care • raising awareness of actions that can be taken by the public and the health and e workforce to protect themselves and vulnerable people in a heatwave; and educing the evidence gap around the costs of extreme weather events and adaptation in the health and social care sectors. The NHS’s owned Third Health and Social Care Adaptation Report was published in December 2021 and assesses health sector vulnerability to existing and future climate risks and opportunities, including overheating. The fourth iteration of the Health Effects of Climate Change Report in the UK is due in 2023 and will include an update of the evolving risks for health under UKCP18. This report will feed into the development and delivery of a programme of research on how climate change will affect health. The government has undertaken research to examine the overheating risk and impacts in existing buildings to inform our approach to managing this risk. In September 2021 BEIS published Cooling in the UK report, a research project led by infrastructure consultancy AECOM consulting that assesses potential future cooling needs in buildings, and the Energy Follow Up Survey (EFUS) Reports, led by the Building Research Establishment (BRE). This report primarily focused on winter heating patterns, energy consumption and thermal comfort, but also included work by Loughborough University on summer overheating. Last summer the government also launched the new £5 million ‘Climate Services for a Net Zero Resilient World’ research programme led by a consortium of some of the leading authorities in environmental science. This includes University College London, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Ricardo Energy & Environment, and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. This work will help the UK adapt and become more resilient to the impacts of climate change, including overheating, and will also engage with local authorities on local climate action plans, by equipping them with information on how to help households cope with extreme temperatures and helping them to identify low-cost, low- In October we published the Heat and Buildings Strategy which sets out our plan to decarbonise the UK’s 30 million homes and workplaces. Within the Strategy we commit to considering current and possible future scenarios, including overheating risk and indoor air quality risk when developing future policies to future-proof buildings. BEIS plans to undertake further research in this area, while developing the detailed policy framework ETAP , as mentioned above, published in May 2021, includes actions to enhance urban tree cover to protect urban populations from overheating by providing shade and reducing the urban heat island. Actions include extending the Urban Tree Challenge Fund to support the planting and establishment of trees in urban and peri-urban areas and working to publish guidance for local authorities to develop their own local tree and woodland strategies.
Further actions related to urban planning include changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, which stipulates that planning policies and decisions should ensure that

328 8th National Communication new streets are tree-lined, that opportunities are taken to incorporate trees elsewhere in developments, that appropriate measures are in place to secure the long term maintenance of newly-planted trees, and that existing trees are retained wherever possible to make clear the expectation that trees, such as community orchards, should be incorporated in new developments and that streets should be tree lined. The National Model Design Code, published in July 2021, highlights the importance of planting trees and other landscape features to provide habitats, shading, cooling, air quality improvements and carbon sequestration, as well as being a vital component of attractive places. ltiple risks to the UK from climate change impacts overseas The Advice Report sets out how extreme weather events in the UK and globally can create cascading risks that spread across sectors. The Advice Report recommends updating the current model of conventional risk governance in the UK to include cascading climate risks. We understand that the potential for cascading risks is growing through a more inter- connected world, where risks can spread across sectors and in doing so lead to system-wide consequences. The Integrated Review has committed the government to publish a Resilience Strategy which will detail how the UK can improve its resilience to the effects of a wide range of risks, including climate change impacts. By 2030, we aim to have improved its ability to assess and understand the risks we face. We will use our systems, infrastructure and capabilities to better prepare for, respond to and recover from risks in all parts of the UK at a local, regional and national level. We have committed to ensuring all new UK bilateral aid spending does no harm to nature. Within the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) this includes using appropriate carbon price in bilateral programming, routine assessment of climate and environment risk and alignment with partner countries’ long-term climate and environment strategies (as set out in the UK Government’s 2019 Green Finance Strategy). We are securing commitment from multinational partners and fellow bilateral donors to align assistance they provide with the goals of the Paris Agreement and do more for nature. This has already resulted in a timebound commitment from the World Bank to align all new operations with the Paris Agreement by July 2023 and increase the percentage of support that has climate co- benefits for people and planet, with a balance between mitigation and adaptation. We understand that climate hazards abroad can produce cascading effects in the UK and has committed to doubling the UK International Climate Finance (ICF) to £11.6 billion between 2021-25. The UK Biennial Finance Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, under Article 9.5 of the Paris Agreement, set out our approach to delivering ICF programmes, including aiming for a balance between mitigation and adaptation spend. The forthcoming ICF Strategy will expand further on this approach. We are currently reviewing the approach to climate risk assessment used for ICF programmes in the light of the UK commitment to align all ODA spend with the Paris Agreement. ICF delivery partners already have measures in place to consider the risks posed to mitigation investments by climate impacts. ICF seeks to maximise adaptation co-benefits where feasible. For example, the Climate Leadership in Cities Programme provided technical assistance to megacities in Asia and South America to develop Paris-aligned climate action plans addressing both mitigation and adaptation in an integrated way. Beyond ICF, we will continue to champion action to advance adaptation alongside mitigation internationally, helping to build global resilience, drive action to protect those who are most vulnerable to climate change, and learn from others around the world as we tackle these shared challenges together. There is a clear opportunity to integrate our approach to climate

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 329 mitigation, adaptation, and other environmental policies, to maximise co-benefits and minimise trade-offs. The 2030 Strategic Framework for International Climate and Nature Action, currently under development for publication later in 2022, will be the UK’s first international strategy to do this, seeking to advance global adaptation and resilience as an international priority, including through co-beneficial mitigation and nature actions. Increasing international action and finance for adaptation has been a key focus of the UK’s COP26 Presidency, recognising that globally, adaptation attracts considerably less finance than mitigation. Since 2011 the UK’s ICF has directly supported 88 million people to cope with the effects of climate change and mobilised £5.2 billion of public and £3.3 billion of private finance for climate change purposes in developing countries. The transnational nature of many climate-linked risks means that no single government can address them alone; we will continue our work with international partners, recognising that a resilient UK is crucial to global resilience and vice versa. Additionally, the scale of the adaptation gap internationally means that UK-funded action on climate adaptation and resilience measures internationally depends in part on international collaboration with close partners in G7 and G20 including in meeting international spend targets such as the $100 billion/year in climate finance and stepping up to meet the commitment made at COP26 to double 2019 levels of adaptation finance by 2025. While good progress has been made, the effectiveness of actions on tackling climate change and biodiversity loss, and enhancing countries’ abilities to adapt to their effects, will remain dependent on the policy and spending choices of others.
By establishing initiatives such as the Adaptation Action Coalition and Adaptation Research Alliance, the UK is bringing countries together to co-develop solutions and innovations for some of the most challenging impacts of climate change and in doing so, helping embed best practice on adaptation into We have a proven track record in delivering research into climate change risk and adaptation, through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund-funded programmes such as those delivered by the Met Office, UKRI, the UK Space Agency and the National Academies. However, we accept that we need further research to fully understand the direct and indirect links between action taken overseas to improve adaptation and how that impacts the UK’s own climate resilience. We understand the need to reduce underlying vulnerabilities overseas alongside its work to respond to disasters and has increased support for disaster risk preparedness, including capacity building. The UK announced £120 million in new funding at the G7 last year to protect those most at risk and help reduce losses and damage to communities, infrastructure and livelihoods caused by climate change. Furthermore, the UK recognises the myriad of ways that climate and environmental change can impact on public health systems and global health more widely. We need to learn from the challenges in the climate-environment-health nexus and from the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Health systems are on the frontline of protecting populations from the health threats of a changing and more variable climate such food and water insecurity; extreme weather; flooding; heat stress; reduced air quality (including increasing ground level ozone); increased land pressure from a landscape changing; vector-borne diseases and zoonoses, amongst others. With UK leadership, over 50 countries committed to build more resilient and low-carbon sustainable health systems at COP26. Working with international partners, we will support mechanisms to help implement these commitments, aiming to increase access to finance, technical assistance and capacity building and knowledge, for the development of climate-sensitive health systems that can effectively respond to increased and new health

330 8th National Communication risks and emergencies. We will pursue a One Health approach, working with partners across government, to ensure lessons from the current and previous pandemics translate into greater pandemic preparedness. We will seek to strengthen our evidence base to explore further efforts to address the challenges in this nexus, and link health more firmly to We recognise the need to increase focus on embedding climate resilience into UK supply chains if sustainable and resilient growth is to be achieved and is considering future policy that will help address this. DIT has established the Global Supply Chains Directorate to improve the resilience of the UK’s critical supply chains against shocks, including climate change. We understand that there are limits to what the UK government can do alone to control vulnerability factors globally. 5.6.9 Flooding and coastal erosion CCRA2 set the risks of flooding and coastal change to communities, businesses and infrastructure as a priority risk area. Although the Advice Report does not include the effects of flooding and coastal change as a priority risk area, we fully recognise that flood risk to people from rivers, surface water and coastal flooding remains high both now and Our policy statement published in July 2020, alongside the National Strategy on flood and coastal erosion, sets out our ambition to create a nation more resilient to future flood and coastal erosion risk. The Policy Statements sets out over 40 actions which will accelerate progress to better protect and better prepare the country against flooding and As part of this, we are investing a record £5.2 billion to build up to 2,000 new flood defences. This investment will better protect 336,000 properties from flooding and coastal erosion. In addition, we are providing £200 million to inform future approaches to improving resilience to flooding and coastal erosion in communities across the country. Within the programme 25 local areas will take forward wider innovative actions that improve their resilience to flooding and coastal erosion including natural flood management, property flood resilience and community engagement. The programme will also support four areas across the country to help plan future investment in flood and coastal resilience by adopting a long-term adaptive Surface water is the most widespread form of flooding in England, with around 3.2 million properties at risk. Managing surface water flooding requires strong collaboration between a wide range of stakeholders, recognised in the government’s Surface Water Management Action Plan which includes 22 actions to improve understanding and strengthen delivery. In July 2021 we published an update report on progress to date with its Surface Water Management Action Plan and its response to the independent review into surface water and To help places better plan and adapt to future risks from flooding from rivers, the sea and surface water, the Environment Agency (EA) is working to produce a new national assessment of flood risk (NaFRA2) by 2024. As part of our reforms to the planning system, we will consider what mechanisms and policy may be needed to ensure wider flood risk issues are considered during decision making. This includes future flood risk from rivers and the sea, surface water and ground water flood risk. Using the power of nature is part of our solution to tackling flood and coastal erosion risks. We are taking a holistic approach to flood risk management including encouraging more natural flood management where appropriate, alongside engineered defences. We have

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 331 committed to doubling the number of government-funded projects which include nature- based solutions to reduce flood and coastal erosion risk. We have committed to joining up our plans for trees, peat, soil and nature to secure multiple benefits including for flood risk, carbon sequestration and net gain. For example, the England Woodland Creation Offer provides ‘Additional Contributions’ in locations identified by EA as benefitting from natural flood management. We will continue to develop our evidence base and understanding of the effectiveness of these interventions.
Rising sea levels can cause both coastal flooding and coastal erosion. We are committed to defending the coastline where this is sustainable and affordable to do so, and to let it function naturally in areas where it is not. The EA is currently working with coastal authorities on a £1 million refresh of Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) to ensure that they are up to date, using the best evidence in their recommendations and focus attention on priority areas for investment and adaptation. Informed by this refresh of technical evidence supporting SMPs, we will review national policy for them to ensure local plans are transparent, continuously review outcomes and enable local authorities to make robust decisions for their areas. As part of this we will engage with stakeholders, including the EA and Coastal Protection Areas to consider the Committee’s views that SMP should be made statutory. We will also review the effectiveness of existing planning policy on Coastal Change Management Areas (CCMAs). Many local authorities have adopted CCMAs policies that allow those at risk of losing their home through erosion within 20 years to get planning permission to replace the property and relocate at an appropriate distance inland and close to the coastal community from which the development was displaced. As part of the £200 million Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Programme, we have allocated £36m over 6 years, to develop a ‘Coastal Transition Accelerator Programme’ to trial opportunities, in a small number of coastal areas at significant risk of coastal erosion, to transition and adapt to a changing climate. Our policy statement sets out our commitment to ensure homes, communities and businesses are better prepared to manage flood risk. To achieve this, we want to accelerate uptake of Property Flood Resilience. We will publish a roadmap by the end of 2022 to accelerate take-up of property flood resilience measures. This will ensure all relevant bodies are playing their part and that consumers can have assurance about the quality of products and their installation. We are also making a number of changes to the Flood Re scheme which further accelerate the uptake of Property Flood Resilience. This includes permitting Flood Re to offer additional funds above the cost of a claim to make flooded properties more resilience to future flooding (also known as Build Back Better). To drive forward progress and ensure that actions taken to manage flood and coastal erosion risk work for the benefit of our communities to build resilience everywhere we have committed to develop a national set of indicators. This will enable us to monitor trends over time to better understand the impact of our flood and coastal erosion risk management policies. 5.6.10 Public health and other social services The Advice Report highlights the breadth of climate risks relevant to public health and social services including education and prison services. Cold weather spells, heatwaves and incidents of flooding can all have a harmful impact and often on the most vulnerable groups. We will continue to consider the risks raised in the report as we prepare for NAP3 and have summarised our actions to date on health and social care, prison and education

332 8th National Communication 5.6.11 Health and social care delivery We are committed to working alongside UKHSA, NHS England & NHS Improvement (NHSE&I) and partners across the health and social care system to develop the actions and commitments required for NAP3. There are well developed warning systems in place to alert the public and emergency responders to imminent threats of flooding, heavy rainfall, strong winds, heatwaves and cold weather. The Met Office issued a new Extreme Heat Warning service in June 2021, designed to work alongside UKHSA’s Heat-Health Alert system. UKHSA is committed under NAP2 to develop a Single Adverse Weather and Health Plan for England by 2023. Building on the existing Heatwave and Cold Weather Plans for England, this will include updated guidance on hot and cold weather, drought, flooding and thunderstorm asthma to inform action across the health system and local communities and reduce the health impacts of adverse weather events and plan for longer term climate change impacts on health. Under the Adaptation Reporting Powers of the Climate Change Act, the NHS and UKHSA published the Third Health and Care Adaptation Report on behalf of the sector. This builds on the 2015 report and helps to ensure the NHS can continue to deliver a climate-smart, resilient health service. The Adaptation Report, published in 2021, outlines current and future policies that address risks to health and social care delivery. The report recognises the risks and opportunities in the Advice Report. It also assesses health sector vulnerability to existing and future climate risks and opportunities this, including overheating. The report highlights actions to address any adaptation gaps between current policies and commitments. The Health and Care Act 2022 places clear duties on NHS Trusts, Integrated Care Boards and NHS England to have regard to the Government’s climate and environmental ambitions, including on climate change adaptation, in the exercise of their functions. The Care Quality Commission, which regulates health and care services in England, will be referencing environmental sustainability in its new regulatory model, looking at how organisations providing health and care services are adapting to climate change or mitigating its impacts. The new model will be implemented towards the end of 2022. 5.6.12 Vector-borne diseases and climate change overseas We acknowledge the threat of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) to UK public health and there are currently effective policies in place to address this risk. However, in the light of the increasing threat of VBDs driven by climate change, we are considering additional actions to mitigate against this growing risk. UKHSA leads on conducting surveillance for a range of VBDs, working in collaboration with other government arms’ length bodies, local authorities, Beyond surveillance, there is a cross government contingency plan for managing the detection of invasive mosquitos in the UK. In addition, UKHSA contributes to the production of specialist and national public health guidance on VBDs.
Specialist guidance is in place for wetland practitioners on vector mosquitos and for clinicians on identifying and managing potential cases of exotic human infections. UKHSA also issues public advice, including tailored advice for travellers, on how to reduce the risk of acquiring infection. We are currently developing future policies and commitments to effectively mitigate the public health risk from climate change, including VBDs. This includes UKHSA’s work with partners to contribute to the Health Effects of Climate Change report, due in 2023. This report will include a specific chapter on vector borne diseases, setting out in detail the current and future risk from VBDs and commitments to address them. Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 333 We understand that there is a need to continue to strengthen our future resilience to VBDs. This includes ensuring that we have the capacity to detect, monitor and respond to emerging and zoonotic infections in the UK and abroad. This could be optimally enhanced oved national serum/plasma archives for ongoing sero-surveillance purposes, working with external partners; engthening links with the NHS tropical disease units to refer more samples of undiagnosed fevers to UKHSA Rare and Imported Pathogens Lab (RIPL) for testing, therefore increasing its sentinel functions; targeting surveillance by referring undiagnosed cases of fevers of infectious origin in eas with a high vector prevalence for testing by UKHSA RIPL; • enhancing laboratory diagnosis by expanding the r epertoire of tests available and establishing international links to obtain clinical material to evaluate new tests; and • we have taken significant action to mitigate the risk of VBDs in the future and will continue to work closely with partners to addr The UK government and Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland governments each developed and employ a specific indicator framework for tracking progress to accompany their adaptation policy cycle. The indicators usually cover topics identified in the risk assessment and listed in the adaptation plans. In England, two sets of indicators are used for reporting on adaptation on a two-year cycle and are published in the CCC’s biennial progress reports on reducing emissions and adapting to climate change. These are the broader cross-sector indicator framework for assessing climate change preparedness and the NAP monitoring tracker, which monitors the 253 Cross-sector indicator framework The cross-sector indicator framework aims to assess whether risks identified in CCRA3 have been reduced. Using these indicators, the AC assigns a score to the progress made as regards each adaptation priority, based on progress in managing risk. The AC aims to focus on indicators that measure progress towards adaptation outcomes and not just number of adaptation actions. In using these indicators, the CCC aims to (i) the degree of vulnerability to risks from current and future climate, (ii) the sufficient uptake of low-regret adaptation actions and (iii) whether long-term decisions systematically account The 2021 set includes a total of 133 indicators. They were selected on the basis of their suitability to demonstrate change over time (even if no data is available). Indicators have been identified through applying a ‘theory of change’ to assess the indicators’ suitability and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation actions which requires the attribution of adaptation actions to specific outcomes. As of 2021, the CCC is applying the theory of change by means of adaptation pathways. The complete set results from an iterative research process in which the CCC regularly updated and added indicators (2017, 2019, 2021), as it is its task to review the previous indicator framework in the light of CCRA3. The 2021 set comprises three types of indicators, namely, indicators that provide a robust assessment of trends in risk factors, indicators to track adaptation actions, and indicators to assess climate impacts. The indicators are classified according to four chapters (Natural Environment, People and the Built Environment, Infrastructure and Business), which are

334 8th National Communication then clustered by adaptation priority, step in the ‘theory of change’ process (input, output, outcome, impact) and by climate risk category (vulnerability, hazard, exposure). The CCC relies on three types of • to track adaptation actions; ends in risk factors, namely, hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and educe either exposure or vulnerability, but do not have an effect on hazards (which are influenced by mitigation efforts). A change in any of the three types of risk can have positive or negative social, economic, or environmental impacts which, in turn, give an indication of how risk is changing, and the effectiveness of adaptation actions. roader international cooperation on adaptation We are committed to a balance in International Climate Finance (ICF) spend between Mitigation and Adaptation, recognising the importance of delivering an ambitious adaptation agenda. In a policy paper published before COP26, ‘the Glasgow Imperative’, the UK outlined plans to drive adaptation and resilience action through five i) Building resilience across all of society; ii) Effective Risk Management; iii) Transforming Finance; iv) Catalysing Locally Led Action; and v) Harnessing the power of nature. We are also committed to international co-operation across all five of these pillars. An example of this work is the UK’s current co-chair role in the Adaptation Action Coalition (AAC). This is a member coalition of nation states that aims to accelerate global action on adaptation to achieve a climate resilient world. The UK’s ICF has to date helped 88 million people internationally, cope with the effects of climate change by assisting countries to adapt to long term impacts well in advance, for example by changing or diversifying livelihoods and ensuring infrastructur educe the impact of climate variability and extremes for example through effective forecasting and preparedness measures; and fects of climate extremes and disasters for example through effective and rapid response that enables people to cope with disaster and recover quickly. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published its Preparing for Climate A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in 2020 which outlines what is required to enable it to prepare for climate change.
We are now implementing this strategy, and are committed to ensuring the effects of climate change are considered in key policies, programmes and projects including a Climate Change Risk Assessment of its estate and operations has been commissioned including detailing risks of over esilience into the design of MoJ’s New Prisons

Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 335 • development of a detailed Climate Adaptation Action Plan which accounts for The Department for Education (DfE) launched a strategy for sustainability and climate change for the education and children’s services systems in April 2022. The strategy’s vision is for the UK to be the world-leading education sector in sustainability and climate change by 2030. This will be achieved through four strategic excellence in education and skills for a changing preparing all young people for a world impacted by climate change thr ough learning and practical experience; reducing direct and indirect emissions from education and care buildings, driving innovation to meet legislative targets and providing opportunities for children and young people to engage practically in the transition to net zero; esilience to climate adapting our education and care buildings and system to prepare for the effects of climate change; and onment for future enhancing biodiversity, improving air quality and increasing access to, and connection with, nature in and around The strategy brings together a range of initiatives, including work which commenced in 2020/21, when we commissioned the Resilient School Building study by leading Architectural and MEP design professionals. The aim was to assess the range of design parameters affecting the adaptation of school buildings to overheating, tested to 2°C and 4°C global warming scenarios, across English geographical locations. The findings informed changes to the S21 DfE Output Specification which equiring all designs for new and refurbished buildings funded by DfE to use Design Summer Years that match the IPCC 2°C global warning scenarios and future proofed to 4°C global warming scenarios; and minimum floor to ceiling heights, plus the mandating of cross-flow or stack ventilation and adapting to higher temperatur Research continues on risks set out in CCRA3 while planning for a zero-carbon school estate as set out in the strategy. The DfE is actively working in partnership with the Environment Agency (EA), Defra, water companies and local authorities to improve schools’ learning and awareness of risk and resilience around flooding, air quality, increased rainfall and water shortages. We have trialled flood prevention and overheating amelioration measures and wider sustainability measures across several schools and have plans for schools at highest risk, to share a flood risk plan template to set out emergency plans. A strategic approach to piloting new building technology will be launched in order to support the future retrofit of the education estate and act as catalyst to the construction sector for implementing new technology. Building technology pilots will support action to adapt the existing estate to protect against the current and future effects of climate change and from 2025 onwards, we will accelerate change once we understand the best value for money approach. This approach can be summarised as innovate, test, and invest, and is shown schematically within the strategy. Further, we are helping schools at highest flood risk adapt through raising awareness and flood planning including material for pupils; delivering flood risk reduction measures through

336 8th National Communication partnerships with EA, water companies and Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFAs); and, carrying out a detailed assessment of climate change impacts on flood risk across the school estate to build into our investment planning. DfE are also piloting approaches with four water companies to make schools more efficient, as well as developing a range of interventions to support efficiency with the potential to save millions of litres of water a day. contributing £16.6 million in a collaborative partnership with the EA to deliver 55 ojects across England, which will reduce flood risk to over 142 schools, other properties and businesses, improve habitat and provide ectly with all schools in the scheme areas – EA colleagues visit schools to raise awareness about flooding, the scheme, water safety and climate change; oach by working with local government and their LLFAs by providing grant investment towards sustainable drainage systems (SuDs) flood mitigation, in order to help protect schools from increasing risk of surface ficiency measures with water companies, in recognition of the future • delivering 205 school heat decarbonisation plans, to help inform the schools ease technical understanding on the requirements necessary to assist in the drive to low carbon solutions; and ater Strategy to reduce flood risk in future years, recognising that that flooding causes significant damage to schools, disrupts education, and impacts on the health and the wellbeing of pupils and workforce DfE has been developing a Water Strategy, to help inform what we are able to do to reduce risk in future years. Over the lifetime of the flood schemes, they will massively reduce the chance of educational days being lost due to flooding. Adaptation is geographic and context specific and action is required at national, regional and local levels. In responding to localised climate change risks, we commit to work closely with local authorities to ensure communities are consulted in planning, designing and implementing adaptation activity At the local level, when developed, adaptation policies usually build on risk assessments, critical to inform the priority setting process and form a baseline for measuring progress towards adaptation. There are some The Mayor of London, r equired by the Greater London Authority Act 1999 to consider the impact of climate change and adaptation options, developed a dedicated adaptation chapter on adapting to climate change for the 8.7 million Londoners in its 2018 London Environment Strategy (Greater London Bristol (a member of Mayors Adapt, an initiative of the European s Directorate General Climate Action) endorsed its 2020 strategy, building on a climate resilience assessment, and is now developing an action plan.
Chapter 5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impact and adaptation measures 337 • Norther n In Northern Ireland, Derry and Strabane District Council were the first to develop a local authority climate adaptation plan, building on a local risk assessment. Climate NI developed a five-step adaptation planning tool to support local councils and organisations in assessing current and future vulnerability to climate impacts, leading to the development of a risk register and adaptation plan. Several other local authorities are developing adaptation plans and strategies. However, although around 300 councils have declared a climate emergency, less than 12% of them mention adaptation to climate change. Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and This chapter sets out the financial assistance the UK has provided to developing countries to support emissions reductions and increase the resilience of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. The chapter is structured as An overview of UK support for developing countries thr • The allocation of UK ICF since the UK’s Seventh National Communication and Fourth Biennial Review, covering mitigation and adaptation with examples of ogramming in UK priority areas. • How the UK is supporting technological development and transfer to Actions the UK is taking to build capacity in developing countries for mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer and negotiations. How the UK is helping to accelerate the alignment of financial flows with the Paris eement and raising ambition globally. • How the ICF is using its monitoring and evaluation framework to apply lessons • The UK is committed to the collective target of providing and mobilising US$100 billion climate finance a year thr ough public and private sources, for developing countries. The UK succeeded in meeting its 2015 pledge to provide £5.8 billion in International Climate Finance (ICF) between 2016/17 and 2020/21. In 2019 the PM made a commitment to delivering £11.6 billion for the period 2021/22 to 2025/26. This commitment is additional to the £5.8 billion spent up to March 2021. British International Investment (BII) (formerly CDC) has also committed to a 30% climate target which is expected to deliver a further £2 billion climate finance ch 2021 the UK Government published the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy which made tackling climate change and biodiversity loss its number one international priority. The UK is beginning a

340 8th National Communication programme of new investment, taking forward its 10-point plan for a green industrial revolution by funding British research and development in green technologies, and supporting climate investment internationally through UK ICF. Recognising that adaptation is a priority for many developing countries, UK ICF aims for a balance between adaptation and mitigation. The majority of UK climate finance is grant-based, with 91% of support pr ovided over the reporting period being • As first outlined in the 2019 Gr een Finance Strategy and further reinforced in the Integrated Review, the UK Government has also pledged to ensure that all UK ODA is aligned to the Paris Agreement, reflecting the UK Government’s commitment to tackling the causes of climate change and its impacts as a driver of future instability and poverty. In the 2021, the UK Government response to the Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity, the UK committed to integrate nature into its ODA, ensuring that all new UK bilateral aid spending does no harm to nature. The UK is one of the largest contributors to the major multilateral climate funds, with £724 million provided over 2019 and 2020. At the G7 in 2019 the UK announced it will double its contribution to the GCF to £1.44 billion of new funding between 2020 and 2023, making the UK the largest contributor. £450 million of this commitment was provided in 2020. Other climate specific funding over the period 2018, 2019 and 2020 includes £106 million to the Global Envir The UK also pledged £15 million new funding to the Adaptation Fund at COP26. At least £3 billion of the £11.6 billion ICF commitment will be used to protect and restore nature and biodiversity over the five years to 2025/26 and £1 billion new funding for the Ayrton Fund will support clean energy Research, Development and At COP26 the UK launched the Clean Green Initiative (CGI) to help developing countries bridge the infrastructure gap, while supporting climate change and sustainable development goals, helping to scale up investment by the private sector. Bold commitments have been made at COP26 around key otecting £1.5 billion new UK funding over five years for the Global Forest Finance Pledge (part of the £3 billion nature commitment); • phasing out the UK is the largest contributor to the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) and committed an additional £350 £200 million to the new ransitions programme and £150 million to the Renewable Energy Integration programme (announced at UNGA); The CIFs with strong UK leadership announced a new Capital Markets Mechanism expected to issue billions of green bonds in the City of London to support climate action; net zero £27.5 million new funding to support the launch of the Urban Climate Action Programme (UCAP); including a £100 million to respond to recommendations from the UK co-chaired Taskforce on Access to Climate Finance to make it faster and easier for developing countries to access finance for their climate plans. COP26 also saw the launch of the International Just Transition Declaration 1 UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021:

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 341 to working together to ensure no one is left behind in the transition towards net • Since 2011, UK ICF2 investments have helped 88 million people to cope with the effects of climate change. This includes supporting vulnerable individuals and e resilient to increased climate variability such as helping farmers grow crops that can adapt to changing weather conditions. Since 2011, UK ICF has also mobilised £8.0 billion in public and private finance in addition to our ICF spend commitments.
Overall ICF provided from April 2011 to March 2021 is expected to avoid or reduce 960 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. 6.3 O verview of UK support, approach and channels The economic recovery after the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic will be critical to secure more ambitious and urgent action to promote a clean, green, inclusive, and resilient future. The UK is committed to supporting the global shift to net zero by providing developing countries access to more, better, and faster finance. Public finance will be used to mobilise the trillions that are urgently needed from the private sector to meet our climate and nature goals. As the new G7 Partnership for Infrastructure and Investment develops; we will collaborate with our G7 counterparts to drive progress towards a global Green The UK is building on the successful delivery of £5.8 billion ICF between 2016/17 – 2020/21 by providing a doubling of finance to £11.6 billion between 2021/22 – 2025/26. This is dedicated ring-fenced funding that is distinguishable from non-climate ODA. The £11.6 billion (2021/22) is a new commitment which is on top of the £5.8 billion commitment (2016/17 – March 2021). Tackling climate change is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), therefore UK ICF is integrated into wider development spending. The UK Government has committed to align its ODA spend with the Paris Agreement in 2019 and we have continued to implement this commitment. In 2021 the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) included a new rule in its programme operating framework to ensure that ODA spend aligns with the Paris Agreement and does no harm to nature, with an intention to embed best practice approaches through all ODA spending departments. The UK’s ICF is playing a vital role in helping developing countries to respond and adapt to the challenges of climate change and prevent its worst effects. UK ICF is focusing on driving the rapid transformation and systemic shifts required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and deliver on the Glasgow Climate Pact. British International Investment (BII), the UK’s development finance institution, is playing a transformative role in tackling climate change by supporting clean, inclusive, and resilient growth in the countries where it invests. With a climate finance target of at least 30% of new investment, it is supporting investments that facilitate transformation towards net-zero economies by 2050 by either investing in activities that are already low carbon or which indirectly enable emissions reductions in other activities. The UK is ensuring a balanced split between mitigation and adaptation finance, recognising that support for nature can deliver on both as well as addressing biodiversity loss. The UK is investing in mitigation where emissions are growing rapidly and in countries with forests that can play a role as major carbon sinks, whilst supporting those most vulnerable to 2 2021 UK ICF

342 8th National Communication impacts to adapt and become more resilient. COP26 saw the launch of the International Just Transition Declaration3 committing to working together to ensure no one is left behind in the transition towards net zero economies. The UK will enhance the gender-responsiveness of its programming, including by increasing the proportion of climate finance that has gender equality as a principal or significant objective as defined by the OECD Development Assistance Committee Gender Equality policy marker4. The UK provides support through both bilateral and multilateral channels, as well as rules-based international system (RuBIS) to help drive global climate action. Through the establishment of the FCDO the UK will continue to use its network of officials in developing countries to ensure close relationships with other governments and organisations – facilitating bilateral programmes based on developing country needs. The UK will continue to support UN climate change processes, multilateral funds and development banks to deliver impact at scale and use their leverage to maximise value for money. 6.3.1 UK International Climate Finance (ICF) overview UK ICF is an important international instrument for delivering on Paris Agreement commitments to collectively mobilise $100 billion per year and is part of the UK’s broader Official Development Assistance (ODA). In recognition of the urgency with which the causes of climate change and its impacts must be tackled, the UK successfully delivered on its commitment to provide £5.8 billion ICF over the period 2016/17 – 2020/21. The UK ICF portfolio is managed by three the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Collectively they aim to provide the necessary capital investment, technical assistance, and capacity building to drive transformational change towards low-carbon, climate resilient and nature positive development paths, drawing in investment from the private sector and other actors. UK ICF focuses on four key 1) clean energy, 2) nature for climate and people, 3) adaptation and resilience, 4) sustainable cities, infrastructure and transport. This includes supporting developing countries to pursue clean economic growth, halt deforestation and build resilience, whilst achieving co-benefits for other sustainable development goals such as improved livelihoods, food and water security, gender equality and health for all. The UK will strike a balance between mitigation and adaptation spending and will invest at least £3 billion in solutions that protect and restore nature. The UK recognises the challenges faced by some countries in accessing climate finance and will continue to work with delivery partners and the multilateral funds to improve access. The UK will continue to push for greater transparency, efficiency, effectiveness, and impact of finance that is distributed through multilateral sources. While there will not be a single access point for developing countries to directly apply for ICF support, much of our ICF is spent through our teams based in developing countries. UK Climate Finance programming is developed in partnership with developing countries, so that it addresses their needs.
We are also working in coordination with others to improve access to finance, for example through the NDC Partnership and the Taskforce on Access to Climate Finance Cumulative ICF results show that over the period 2011/12 – 2021/22 (2020 bracketed), UK ICF programmes have so far 3 4

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 343 6.3.2 C ontribution to Multilateral Development Banks overview • The UK has worked very closely with the Multilateral Development Banks to scale up climate finance over the period and at COP26, with the UK’s ICF noted for its positive impact on this multilateral ar chitecture. Climate also plays a critical role across a number of UN SDGs and environmental agreements. The UK will pursue the following outcomes, using both bilateral and domestic relationships, and UK positions in multilateral fora and institutions, and diplomatic The UK will use its position in IFIs (including the multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, and the International Monetary Fund) to seek onger mainstreaming of climate, nature and wider environmental considerations. This includes by better incorporating climate and environment risk, and encouraging additional, urgent action and scaling up of new instruments and approaches. orking through the IFIs, our in-country presence, and in new fora like the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action to support developing countries to embed Maximising synergies between climate finance and Financing for Development (e.g., through the Addis Ababa Action Agenda) and multilateral nd UNFCCC Mandatory and Voluntary Contributions overview As a signatory to the UNFCCC, the UK pays contributions to the UNFCCC core budget to ensure the effective functioning of the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC process. The UK also makes voluntary contributions each year to UNFCCC trust funds, including the Trust Fund for Supplementary Activities to support a range of priority activities, and the Trust Fund for Participation in the UNFCCC process to fund developing country participation. Between 2019 and 2022, the UK contributed to the UNFCCC £4.5 million in voluntary contributions and EUR 4,466,318 in core contributions (Convention, Kyoto Protocol and International Transaction Log). These contributions were 61% ODA-funded in line with the OECD-DAC Annex 2 on ODA eligible international organisations. In addition, the UK provides small scale funding to help contribute to the costs of the OECD Climate Change Experts Group programme and to provide targeted support to the most progressive and vulnerable

344 8th National Communication countries in the negotiations, including through the Cartagena Dialogue and the Climate Ambition Support Alliance (CASA) (see section 6.6.4). As a member of the IPCC the UK makes voluntary contributions each year to the IPCC’s Trust Fund. The UK has contributed £115,000 per year between 2019 and 2021. 6.3.4 Research and development spending overview The UK supports research and development through multiple channels (see Section 6.4.8) including a commitment to spend £1 billion on ODA funded research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) through the Ayrton Fund on clean energy over five years from April 2021. Other initiatives include the Newton Fund which supports bilateral and regional research and innovation partnerships between the UK and partner countries. From 2014–2021 a UK investment of up to £735 million was made with ‘match’ funding from 6.4 UK International Climate Finance This section explains how the UK directs its climate finance. Firstly, a high-level quantitative overview of UK ICF spend is shown, and the UK’s overarching strategic approach set out. UK support for operating entities of the UNFCCC Financial Mechanism and other multilateral funds is explained, in addition to UK support for mitigation and adaptation activities. The UK succeeded in meeting its 2015 pledge to provide £5.8 billion in International Climate Finance (ICF) between 2016/17 and 2020/21 and is committed to delivering an additional £11.6 billion for the period 2021/22 and 2025/26. The £11.6bn is a new commitment which is on top of the £5.8bn spent up to March 2021. Total climate spend £1,051m £902.5m £1,169m £1,183m £1,329m Multilateral spend £268m £154.3m £217m £199.2m £524.8m Bilateral spend £783m £748.2m £951m £984.4m £803.8m Mitigation spend £517m £452.6m £591m £702.2m £701.5m Adaptation spend £533m £447.9 m £564m 473.4m £623.3m Relevant CTF tables submitted for UNFCCC reporting including those with NC8 UK ICF works through a mix of instruments, partners and delivery channels including bilateral programmes, multilateral contributions, private sector and civil society programmes. Within this, there is a growing role for bilateral partnerships and programming, reinforced by well- staffed country missions with delegated budgets. Much of UK ICF is spent through our teams based in developing countries. Through bilateral ICF programmes and broader ODA effort, the UK is developing and strengthening relationships with partner governments at technical and Ministerial level and across multiple ministries, enabling demand led support. Our in- country teams partner with government officials to support the development of strategies across various themes including climate adaption, NDCs and reversing biodiversity loss and ensure that our portfolios are supporting delivery of those strategies. Furthermore, detailed country development diagnostics inform decision making and as a result, programming choices reflect the local context and need. Programmes are designed and delivered in consultation with local communities and in partnership with key institutions, local and national governments. As such, the UK is ensuring that programmes

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 345 are designed to be responsive to country needs; adaptable to changing circumstances; to drive transformational change and offer value for money. Through our overseas networks, we also provide support to develop countries’ climate change policies and strategies, as well as providing tailored and expert technical assistance. For example, one of the specific actions we are taking is to consider countries’ revised NDCs as they are submitted over the course of this year. We then cross-check our map of technical assistance and capacity building support with countries’ capital investment needs. We will also draw on the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance’s Report on the Determination of the Needs of Developing Country Parties to inform future pipeline development (first published in 2021 and every four years thereafter).
More broadly we continue supporting and engaging with organisations like the NDC Partnership, whose mission is to ensure effective support for the implementation of developing countries’ NDCs and enable us to coordinate our support with that of other countries and organisations. The UK will also work closely with partner countries to plan and evaluate our programmes and identify ways to achieve greater impacts. Over the period 2021 – 2025, UK ICF will focus on driving transformation and systemic shifts required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and deliver on the Glasgow Climate Pact Clean A major focus of our ICF programming will be on accelerating the clean energy transition in developing countries so that they can provide access to affordable, reliable and clean energy for all and reduce or avoid high emissions pathways, making use of innovation, technology and carbon pricing and addressing social and gender barriers to clean Nature for Climate and Through our ICF and in line with the recommendations from the Dasgupta Review, we will protect, restore and sustainably manage nature including through protection and restoration of critical ecosystems on land and in the ocean, reversing forest loss, and supporting sustainable food and water systems. We will also seek to ensure our global financial and economic systems support nature through sustainable production and consumption and management of risks, while supporting communities and livelihoods. Adaptation and UK ICF will ensure that countries and communities are supported to adapt to, prepare for and cope with the damaging effects of climate change and climate-linked disasters. Without action, hard won gains in areas such as health, nutrition and livelihoods risk being reversed. Those living in poverty, women and girls, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities, people with disabilities and marginalised and crisis-affected groups are already being hit hardest by the impacts of a changing climate and they stand to suffer most unless action is taken. Sustainable Cities, Infrastructure and In the context of rapid changes in urban development, UK ICF will focus on supporting the low-carbon, green and resilient urbanisation needed to promote sustainable cities, along with wider infrastructure across the transport, building, water and waste sectors. With 68% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by 2050 and cities accounting for 75% of global CO2 emissions, investment in sustainable cities is key for meeting both our development and climate goals. 6.4.2 Support for cross cutting multilateral climate funds The UK is one of the largest contributors to the major multilateral climate funds, with £724m provided over 2019 and 2020. The UK’s contribution to the GCF will double to £1.44bn between 2020 and 2023, making the UK the largest contributor. £450m of this commitment was provided in 2020. The other main multilateral funds that that benefitted from UK support are the Climate Investment Funds (£200 million UK finance), and the Global Environment Facility with £50m climate specific support provided over 2019 and 2020. 346 8th National Communication Global Environment Facility 150.5 general ICF ODA Grant Cross-cutting Support is new contributions. Green Climate Fund 595.46 climate UNDP Climate Promise 3 climate Relevant CTF tables submitted for UNFCCC reporting including those with NC8 6.4.2.1 G lobal Environment Facility The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is the principal multilateral agency supporting developing countries in tackling major environmental problems and supporting implementation of the international agreements covering biodiversity (including wildlife loss), land degradation, deforestation, chemical pollution, marine and freshwater degradation – including marine plastic – and climate change. The GEF budget is replenished on 4-yearly cycles and a total of 28 countries contribute. It is currently in the seventh replenishment period (GEF7) from July 2018 until June 2022 which has a total budget of $4.1 billion (the GEF 8 replenishment negotiations will be finalised in June 2022). Of the GEF7 total, the UK is contributing up to £250 million in total (10.07% burden share of the total). The UK contribution makes the UK the third largest donor to GEF7 after Japan and Germany. Of this, 60% of programmes under GEF7 have clear climate benefits and so £150 million of our contribution is scored as ICF. Since its inception in 1991 GEF has invested in improving the management of 3,300 protected areas covering an area of about 860m hectares, an area larger than Brazil. GEF has been instrumental in supporting national policy reform and planning frameworks that promote biodiversity considerations across sectors and geographies with globally significant biodiversity. This has resulted in legal, environmental, regulatory, governance and socio- economic additionalities beyond incremental cost benefits. GEF Sustainable Forestry Management interventions were estimated to have avoided 4,875km2 of deforestation, sequestering 1.33 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year and increasing household assets by USD$163-353. It has also supported management of 790 climate change mitigation projects contributing to 2.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emission reductions and sustainable management of 34 of the world’s major river basins and provided $131m to the Global Wildlife Programme to tackle the illegal wildlife trade. Since becoming operational in 2015, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) has become the key multilateral climate fund, with a mandate to make ‘an ambitious contribution to the global efforts towards attaining the goals set by the international community to combat climate change’. The UK is a strong supporter of the GCF having committed £720 million

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 347 for the initial resource mobilisation period (2015-2019), and doubling this commitment to £1.44 billion for the first replenishment period (2020-2023). The UK is committed to ensuring that the GCF delivers maximum impacts in the developing countries it supports. The GCF funds transformational projects with a strong focus on leveraging private finance, with a commitment to provide 50% of its resources for mitigation and 50% for adaptation. At least 50% of its adaptation support will be provided to particularly vulnerable countries including Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African States.
The GCF has continued to improve its programming and efficiency track record, tightening its policy framework, and building the Secretariat’s capacity. In the eight years since it became operational, the GCF has committed $10 billion to climate projects (with an additional $27.2 billion leveraged in co-financing). $4 billion of this GCF commitment (that will mobilise $15 billion in co-financing) has been approved by the Board since June 2020. Around 70% of the GCF’s adaptation funding is going to the most vulnerable countries (SIDS, LDCs and African States). 34% of GCF funds are now being delivered through its 6.4.2.3 Climate Investment Funds The UK is the largest investor in the $10.3 billion CIFs, having committed an additional £560 million over 2019/20 and 2020/21, to pilot low-emission and climate resilient development through projects implemented by the multilateral development banks in the areas of green recovery (£10 million), energy storage (£200 million), coal transition (£200 million) and renewable energy integration (£150 million); the latter two being key COP26 announcements and deliverables. From this commitment, the UK has spent £210m by the end of 2020 on green recovery and energy storage. The CIFs now operate across 72 countries and have a total portfolio of 325 projects. The projects are unlocking finance flows in the green markets of developing countries and are expected to generate at least $61 billion of co-financing. With strong support from the UK the CIFs have also embarked on a new era of programming which targets key challenge areas that include coal transitions, renewable energy integration, nature-based solutions, cities and industry, and on implementing a Capital Markets Mechanism to raise billions in additional investment from the private sector. The UK pledged £15 million to the Adaptation Fund (AF) at COP26. Since 2010 the AF has committed $850m in support to nearly 100 countries. It has a growing pipeline with over $300 million of requests for support. This is three times the average annual disbursements from the Fund, demonstrating continued high demand from recipients. Funding for any single country was previously capped at $10 million, but this has now been increased to $20 million to allow countries additional support. The AF offers developing countries direct access to funding and often faster than other funds. This is in part because the AF funds projects alone, rather than co-financing with others, and so must cover the full cost of approved projects. This makes it a useful complement to mechanisms such as the GCF, as does its speed and lower project size, which allow for the trialling of innovative new approaches that can subsequently be taken to scale through support from other, larger funds 6.4.2.5 Least Developed Countries Fund The Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) is administered by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) but operates and is funded separately. To date nine of GEF’s eighteen implementing agencies have been involved in implementing LDCF projects and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Environment Programme

348 8th National Communication (UNEP) , African Development Bank (AfDB), Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Bank, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Union for the Conversation of Nature (IUCN), and United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO). The UK, through DFID contributed £30 million from December 2016 to March 2019. The UK no longer funds LDCF. he Special Climate Change Fund The Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) is administered by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) but operates and is funded separately. The SCCF supports adaptation and technology transfer in all developing country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), supporting both long-term and short-term adaptation activities in water resources management, land management, agriculture, health, infrastructure development, fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems, and integrated coastal zone management. The UK does not fund SCCF. The UK has provided £3m as a voluntary contribution to the Climate Promise, to support UNDP in helping countries to scale up their efforts to protect and restore nature, and simultaneously address climate change, biodiversity loss and poverty. The funding will be used to support up to 8 countries to increase ambition and accelerate implementation against their targets on forests, land and nature under the Paris Agreement. The Climate Promise overall is building capacity in over 120 developing countries to enable them to strengthen and deliver national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. ntributions through bilateral, regional and other channels. UK ICF includes significant bilateral programming drawing on the UK’s experience of supporting and delivering high quality development interventions and sharing the UK’s own expertise. This involves working with national and local governments, city authorities and other key public institutions, integrating climate and nature objectives into the design of wider development programmes and launching regional initiatives in Africa, Asia, Latin America that will seek to deliver impact at scale. We will seek to build capacity and provide technical assistance to key institutions to Partner governments to design, develop and deliver strategies, policies and ogrammes that will accelerate action on climate and environment; generate jobs and low carbon growth; and build resilience. egional groups to effectively contribute to climate negotiations, including technical, legal and strategic UNFCCC support as well as support for developing GHG inventories and reporting. The development and implementation of ambitious climate and nature action plans including high-quality, ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans and long-term, and natur e positive development strategies. nments and private sector, increasing access to climate finance and building the capacity of markets to enable the clean growth transition. UK ICF provides funding for over 100 programmes which support mitigation, including the aforementioned multilateral funds. Additionally, British International Investment (BII), formerly CDC group, has invested over £750 million (over $1 billion) in climate finance since 2017 and has set a climate finance target of 30% of new investment commitments over its next

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 349 5-year strategy – at least £3 billion. This is a step up from BII’s four year average climate commitments (2017-2020) of 17%.
BII’s £3 billion of climate finance will be invested over the next five years across several different sectors, such as renewable power, infrastructure and agriculture, including forestry. BII continues to increase its commitments to renewable power, with BII’s overall direct commitments to renewable energy at $894 million at the end of 2020. BII’s portfolio of over 1,000 investments will be net zero by 2050 at the latest. For example, in 2017 BII invested Ayana, an independent solar and wind generation company developing utility-scale enewable energy infrastructure in India; , a renewable energy company in Pakistan that has developed a 50 megawatt wind-power plant; and, • Benban Solar Park in Egypt, the largest solar park in Africa. e some examples of UK programmes (this is not an exhaustive list). Energy The UK has provided support for the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Clean Energy Transition Programme (CETP) which leverages the IEA’s unique energy expertise across all fuels and technologies to accelerate global clean-energy transitions by providing independent, cutting-edge support to governments whose energy policies will significantly influence the prospects for – and the speed of – the global transition towards more sustainable energy production and use. Priority countries include Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, as well as other IEA Association countries and key regions such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. The Renewable Energy Performance Platform (REPP) seeks to mobilise private sector development activity and investment in innovative small and medium scale renewable energy projects (up to 25MW / 50MW for wind) in sub-Saharan Africa. REPP aims to increase the number of sound ‘bankable’ smaller renewable energy projects by developing innovative and first of a kind transactions to set precedence. REPP does this by assisting project proponents throughout the project development stage, by financing Technical Assistance, drawing on existing risk mitigation instruments such as political risk insurance and providing results- based finance where necessary. The UK has committed £148 million for 2015 to 2023 of which £88m has been provided by end of 2021/22. The Clean Energy Fund Technical Assistance Programme (CEF TA) – The UK has contributed £19.5 million to the Asian Development Bank’s existing Clean Energy Fund (CEF) from 15/16 to 2019/20. The fund supports the development of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects in developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The fund focuses specifically on technical assistance activities including building the knowledge and skills base of the industries and governments in the supported countries, as well as undertaking feasibility studies of potential low carbon energy projects. Through a variety of projects, the programme aims to increase country-level (public and private sector) action to implement successful low carbon projects that improve access to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas since the last National Communication the UK has launched several programmes to accelerate decarbonisation internationally, through technology or financial innovation. The UK also supports decarbonisation in developing countries through its support for innovative research, development and deployment of low-carbon technologies, which are detailed within the ‘6.5 Technology development and transfer’ section of this chapter “

350 8th National Communication Zero Emission To accelerate the decarbonisation of the road transport sector, the UK is working with a range of bilateral and multilateral partners. Bilaterally, the UK is working with partner countries through the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK PACT) Programme, which includes a variety of electromobility-related projects. For example, supporting electric vehicle readiness in Johannesburg, accelerating electric bus adoption in Colombian cities, and developing an action plan for electrification of two-wheelers in Jakarta. The UK also provided £177.5 million to the Sustainable Infrastructure Programme – see At the multilateral level, in addition to supporting electromobility-focused projects through the CIF’s Clean Technology Fund and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) Facility, the UK contributed an initial £4 million in 2021/22 to the World Bank’s new Global Facility to Decarbonise Transport (GFDT). The GFDT, which launched at COP26, aims to mobilise US$200 million within the next decade to support Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) decarbonise their transport sectors. The UK is also working with countries in the ZEV Transition Council to identify further opportunities for a more strengthened and coordinated international support offer for EMDEs in the road transport Buildings/industry: The Market Accelerator for Green Construction (MAGC) is a £103 million bilateral programme funded by UK ICF from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and delivered by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to drive the financing and construction of more energy efficient buildings in emerging economies. The programme is supporting up to 24 countries across Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, aiming to build demonstration portfolios of green construction at scale, reducing emissions, mobilising new finance and inspiring markets to shift towards the new energy efficient buildings of the future. Primarily, MAGC provides concessional finance for sustainable building projects, where the perceived financial risk is high, and deploys technical assistance to incentivise local intermediaries to leverage larger volumes of private capital into low-carbon projects. It also builds capacity at the country-level increasing knowledge and ambition for green building projects, funds the improvement and enhancement of IFC’s EDGE building standard and tool, as well as building evidence through a significant research project that quantifies the financial and emissions case for green construction in developing markets and further drive wider uptake. UK Climate UK Climate Investments LLP was mandated to invest in up to £200 million of UK ICF in low carbon projects in emerging markets in its pilot phase (2015-2022). As of November 2021 UKCI’s investment budget is now fully committed. The Investment Mandate requires UKCI to make equity investments into renewable energy and energy efficiency projects in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Through investing a minority equity stake, UKCI aims to leverage additional private equity and debt investment into the projects.
The central objectives of the pilot were Use a private sector actor to have a demonstration effect, build a successful track ecord and prove commerciality of low carbon investments to the broader market by making a strong return on investment; and e additionality and transformational capacity of UKCI’s resources by engaging with market barriers and avoiding displacement of private capital. UKCI’s investments in India and Sub-Saharan Africa have each provided innovation in their markets. For example, UKCI has supported the creation of the first Renewable Energy YieldCos in India and South Africa, to increase capital recirculation, developed an innovative financing tool for Black Economic Empowerment investment – a potential market barrier – and supported an environmentally sustainable housing fund in Kenya – creating an entirely new asset class. Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 351 6.4.4.2 C arbon markets and carbon pricing The UK Government considers that carbon pricing is crucial to support and raise the ambition needed to tackle the climate change challenge. Carbon pricing can provide a cost effective and technology-neutral way of reducing emissions, and it can help mobilise the private sector towards the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals. It is for this reason that the UK continues to promote the use of pricing instruments both domestically and internationally. The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) came into force on 1 January 2021, replacing the UK’s participation in the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS). The system has been established to increase the climate ambition of the UK’s carbon pricing policy, while mitigating the risk of carbon leakage through free allowances. The UK ETS will promote cost-effective decarbonisation, allowing businesses to cut carbon emissions where it is cheapest to do so. It will be the world’s first net zero carbon cap and trade market, and a crucial step towards achieving the UK’s target for net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Internationally, the UK continues to support carbon pricing and carbon markets through a portfolio of programmes aimed at building capacity and piloting new The UK has invested £7 million since 2011 in the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) fund, supporting 19 countries to design and build readiness for domestic carbon pricing initiatives such as carbon taxes or ETSs. om 2021 the UK has committed a further £20 million to PMR’s successor programme, the Partnership for Market Implementation (PMI), which will help developing countries to implement carbon pricing schemes, as well as to support related regional work, through the 2020s. At least 15 countries have oving access to carbon finance in least developed countries through our involvement in the World Bank’s Carbon Initiative for Development (Ci-Dev). Ci-Dev focusses mainly on the poorest countries in Africa to help them participate in the international carbon markets while providing clean energy for households and communities. The programme enables local developers to put their ideas into practice, for example by aggregating many small projects at household or community level and calculating the carbon that has been saved in order to unlock results-based finance. The UK committed £50 million to Ci-Dev since 13/14. In 2016, the UK contributed £60m to the T ransformative Carbon Asset Facility. TCAF’s purpose is to support scaled up crediting approaches in countries with sizeable mitigation potential, and to help enhance overall ambition. Almost 90% of the funding will be spent on results-based purchases of emission reductions from Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest Finance (LEAF), the largest initiative to date for scaling carbon markets (see Section 6.4.6). eement reiterated the importance of carbon markets in meeting international commitments by establishing a new framework for cooperation to enable countries to go further on their mitigation and adaptation actions, and to promote sustainable development and environmental integrity. COP26 finally saw consensus in this area (‘Article 6’), completing the Paris Agreement rulebook. Building on this agreement, the above provisions will help make the UK vision for the future of the global carbon market a reality by providing the foundations to facilitate bottom-up cooperation while creating the necessary

352 8th National Communication The UK Government also supports international initiatives to ensure that voluntary carbon markets – in which carbon credits are voluntarily purchased by businesses and other non- state actors – develop with high levels of integrity. In particular, the UK Government welcomes and is closely engaging with the work of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Markets6. These independent bodies are working to ensure that voluntary carbon markets drive credible, transparent action aligned with the Paris Agreement, across both the supply and demand of carbon credits. Even if we stopped emissions rising today, the world would still need to deal with significant climate disruption. No-one is immune from the impacts of climate change and the poorest and most vulnerable are hardest hit. This includes young people, women and girls, people with disabilities and indigenous peoples. The need for action on adaptation and loss and damage resulting from climate impacts has never been greater. The UK is committed to a balance in ICF spend between Mitigation and Adaptation, recognising the importance of delivering an ambitious adaptation agenda. In a policy paper published before COP26, ‘the Glasgow Imperative’, the UK outlined plans to drive adaptation and resilience action through five i) Building resilience across all of society; ii) Effective Risk Management; iii) Transforming Finance; iv) Catalysing Locally Led Action; and v) Harnessing the The UK’s ICF has to date helped 88 million people cope with the effects of climate change by assisting countries to Adapt to long term impacts well in advance, for example by changing or diversifying livelihoods and ensuring infrastructur educe the impact of climate variability and extremes for example through effective forecasting and preparedness measures. fects of climate extremes and disasters for example through effective and rapid response that enables people to cope with disaster and recover quickly.
Programmes supported by the UK may work across all three areas of action Some examples of UK activities in each of these areas are detailed below (not exhaustive): The Risk Informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) brings together an unprecedented range of stakeholders across the climate, humanitarian and development communities with the aim of making 1 billion people safer from disaster by 2025. REAP does not create a new funding mechanism or directly implement ground-level projects, however, seeking instead to enable coherence, alignment and complementarity of existing initiatives, while learning together what new initiatives are needed to make 1 billion people safer. The Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment develops and pilots practical tools, solutions and financial instruments to support a more efficient integration of physical climate risks in investment decision-making. The Least Developed Countries Initiative for Effective Adaptation and Resilience (LIFE AR) has been supported by the UK since April 2020 and works closely currently with

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 353 6 ‘frontrunner countries’ from the LDC Group at UNFCCC to transform the way that climate finance is accessed, managed and targeted with an objective that at least 70% of climate finance will support local level actions by 2030. This supports the LDC Vision that by 2030 all their (currently 46) countries will be climate resilient by 2030 and will reach net zero by 2050. 6.4.6 nature, land use, and oceans The UK supports a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through cross-cutting activities that deliver protection and restoration of nature, both terrestrial and marine, and Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF) is an ambitious financing mechanism that is mobilising public and private finance for tropical forest protection using high integrity voluntary carbon markets. Companies providing finance must commit to deep emission cuts in their own value chains, while emissions reductions generated by reduced deforestation are independently verified using the stringent ART/TREES standard. So far, LEAF has mobilised $1bn (£700m) in results-based finance and is poised to grow to become one of the largest ever public-private efforts to protect tropical forests. The UK has committed £200m for results-based finance and technical assistance. Mobilising Finance for Forests (MFF) is a new £150 million (2021-2036) UK blended finance programme aimed at increasing private sector investment in activities which protect and restore forests, whilst reducing deforestation associated with unsustainable land use practices over 15 years. It was launched in March 2021 and has already disbursed £100 million to the delivery partner (the Dutch Finance Institution FMO), who are responsible for selecting funds and projects aimed at creating value from standing forests and/ or incorporating forest protection and restoration into sustainable forms of agricultural production. The majority of the capital will be invested in existing sustainable land use funds, while some is reserved for direct investment in projects in tropical forest regions. MFF made its first investment in November 2021 into the Green Fund to issue debt to projects in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Indonesia, Liberia, and Gabon. The Biodiverse Landscapes Fund programme is providing £100m over seven years from 2021/22, mostly through international climate finance, to strengthen protection of six critical ecosystems across the KAZA region (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe), the Western Congo Basin, Madagascar, the lower Mekong, Mesoamerica and Ecuador and Peru. As well as reducing carbon emissions, it will help half and reverse loss of biodiversity and support sustainable livelihoods from resources in protected areas. The Biodiverse Landscapes Fund (£100m over seven years from 2021/22) which aims to deliver biodiversity protection and conservation, poverty reduction, and climate change mitigation and adaptation outcomes across six highly biodiverse landscapes worldwide. The six landscapes covered are Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, Mesoamerica, Congo Basin, Andes Amazon, Lower Mekong, and Madagascar. The UK’s Blue Planet Fund will deliver £500m (over five years) from 2021/22, mostly from international climate finance to protect marine environments (addressing climate change and biodiversity loss) and reduce poverty. It will, for instance, provide technical assistance through the UK Ocean Country Partnership Programme, support conservation of coral reefs (Global Fund for Coral Reefs), strengthen investment in critical marine ecosystems such as mangroves through the Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance. The UK is continuing to deliver a set of ongoing programmes funded from previous and current international climate

354 8th National Communication The UK Blue Carbon Fund, managed by the Inter-American Development Bank, aims to encourage the sustainable management of mangrove forests in target countries across Latin America and the Caribbean by developing and embedding operational blue carbon markets. It seeks to mobilise public and private sector investment to support mangrove protection and fund projects in areas such as sustainable aquaculture, coastal zone management and eco-tourism to tackle the main drivers of mangrove degradation. The Fund is projected to sequester or avoid 2.9 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions; protect or restore 5,570 hectares of mangrove forest; and protect or restore £48 million of ecosystem services. The £10.3 million Blue Forests Initiative (2016-2024), delivered by UK NGO Blue Ventures, works with local coastal communities in Madagascar and Indonesia to protect and restore mangrove habitat, create new sustainable livelihoods, support community health and women’s empowerment, and increase climate resilience. The programme is projected to protect over 180,000 hectares of mangrove forests; deliver over 7.7 million tonnes of carbon savings; benefit 86,000 people through sustainable livelihoods, and create successful models to increase the resilience of coastal communities that are replicable and scalable. The Low Carbon Agriculture for Avoided Deforestation and Poverty Reduction Programme in Brazil, through the Inter-American Development Bank, is restoring deforested and degraded land on small- and medium-sized farms in the Amazon, Atlantic Forests, Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, targeting the barriers experienced by farmers in accessing rural credit to support sustainable production. =The UK has contributed to the BioCarbon Fund, a multilateral project administered by the World Bank aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector through sustainable landscape management, whilst improving the livelihoods of forest communities.
The Fund combines upfront technical assistance with results-based finance which rewards countries which implement landscape-level approaches that reduce emissions from the forest and land-use sector. It works with 5 Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, The UK has contributed to the Eco.business fund for Latin America, a public-private partnership investment fund which aims to shift incentives in financial institutions (i.e. banks) towards investing in nature, by embedding social and environmental risk into investment decisions, catalysing transformational change in the financial sector. The UK has also invested in the Land Degradation Neutrality Fund which brings together public and private investors to support investments in financially viable private projects on land rehabilitation and sustainable land management worldwide, including sustainable agriculture, sustainable livestock management, agro-forestry and sustainable forestry. The UK contributed £20m in 2020 to the World Bank’s Global Programme on Sustainability. The programme supports the integration of natural capital into economic and financial decision making in selected countries. It began in early 2019, building on the World Bank’s previous Wealth Accounting and Valuation or Ecosystem Services (WAVES) programme. The GPS budget is $34m with programme close due in 2025 and the UK is currently the largest donor. The programme is commencing activities in 6 Core Implementing Countries in 2022 with smaller grants being provided to 15 countries on sustainability linked themes. The UK has contributed £4.4 million to the Cities4Forests Initiative (2021-2023), delivered by the World Resources Institute, to support initiatives that enable authorities and decision makers in several developing countries’ cities to protect and restore forests in or

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 355 6.4.7 Mobilising private finance Channelling the finance to enable climate action is a challenge faced by every country and organisation – the scale and speed of this transition will require all forms of public and private; domestic and international. In the Convention and the Paris Agreement, developed country Parties have committed to provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to mitigation and adaptation. Public finance plays a crucial role in bearing risk and in catalysing action, but it cannot fund the transition alone. In Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement, all Parties also committed to making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas and climate resilient development; this should catalyse the trillions of investment needed, but requires a fundamental shift in the global financial system. Taking climate and nature risk into account when making financial decisions should be seen as essential to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Whilst private finance is not a substitute for increased public finance flows, it will be vital in increasing the scale and reach of climate mitigation and adaptation actions, and ultimately in enabling this transition. This transition requires all forms of finance, with ODA and domestic resources being used in a targeted, catalytic way to unlock the trillions which will drive this transition. We will use ICF to leverage and mobilise private finance by reducing the barriers preventing the deployment of commercial finance needed to drive low-carbon growth and economic transitions in developing countries. UK ICF will continue to place a strong emphasis on transformational change, through targeted investment in innovative projects and technologies with the potential to be scaled up and replicated by the private sector. This work will include using and influencing instruments such as British International Investment (BII) International, the UK’s development finance institution and the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) to offer direct and intermediated investment into climate-responsive companies, supporting both mitigation and adaptation-related private sector activity. This in turn can demonstrate to commercial investors that such opportunities can offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Some examples The UK Sustainable Infrastructure Programme (SIP) as detailed in Section 6.6.1, and UK Climate Investments (UKCI) LLP as detailed in Section 6.4.4.1. Global Climate Partnership Fund (GCPF): The UK has invested £54.5 million from 13/14 to 18/19 in junior equity into the GCPF, providing a risk cushion to other investors. GCPF is a public-private partnership which seeks to mobilise investment flows in energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in developing and emerging markets, with the aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. GCPF primarily does this by providing debt finance via local Financial Institutions, extending credit lines so they can offer loans for small-scale low carbon projects. GCPF has so far invested in 23 countries and in about 30 financial institutions. Get FiT The UK has contributed £53.3 million in grants, since 2013/14. This finance is supporting small-scale, on grid projects in Uganda and building the capacity of Uganda institutions to attract private investment in the renewable energy sector. The Climate Public Private Partnership (CP3) is an up to £130 million programme that aims to support clean energy and demonstrate the commercial viability of investments in climate related businesses in emerging markets. By acting as an anchor investor into two private equity climate funds, CP3 sought to catalyse new sources of climate finance from institutional investors such as pension funds and private wealth funds. CP3 currently supports a portfolio of 116 different investments, covering a diverse range of sectors across the globe. These investments are expected to increase clean energy generating capacity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase resource efficiency and support job creation. CP3 invests across

356 8th National Communication developing countries in Asia, Africa and South and Central America. CP3 is expected to avoid 2.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent over its lifetime (to 2026). The Global Innovation Lab supports actionable, innovative, catalytic and financially sustainable ideas for the low-carbon economies of developing countries. The UK has already provided £1.57m since August 2011. The programme brings together public and private sector experts who scrutinise innovative climate finance projects and help develop them towards commercialisation. The Lab has contributed to mobilise $3.2 billion for Lab-endorsed proposals, 30% of which is private funding. Mobilising Institutional Capital Through Listed Product Structures (MOBILIST) develops investment solutions to support global development and the climate transition.
MOBILIST competitively sources and selects emerging and frontier market-dedicated investment products with the aim of listing on global and local public exchanges to respond to the prudential and investment regulations and mandates that institutional investors are subject to. MOBILIST invests capital, delivers technical assistance, conducts research and builds partnerships to catalyse investment in new listed products. The first set of products resulted in the first listing of an investment trust vehicle exclusively focused on emerging market renewable energy projects. UK ICF provided £24.5 million as an anchor investor and a further £63 million in private capital was raised from private investors bringing the total to £87.5 million (initial public offering in December 2021). The UK is working with the African Development Bank (AfDB) and African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) on the Room to Run Sovereign guarantee (R2R), which will unlock up to $2 billion of additional climate finance for Africa. This additional climate finance will be deployed across eligible AfDB member countries to support both government and private sector projects. The $400 million of R2R cover provided by ATI will be partly re-insured though firms in the City of London. The Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) operates across the infrastructure project life-cycle and capital structure by deploying expertise and small amounts of capital through equity, debt, guarantees, project development funds and grants. It addresses the early stage risks associated with infrastructure projects, making projects bankable and acting as a key enabler for other DFIs and private investors to co-invest. The UK committed £74.4 million to PIDG between 2018/19 and 2021/22. PIDG delivers high development impact in low-income countries and fragile and conflict-affected states that helps economies The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Capital Market Mechanism (CCMM) initiative will leverage existing assets from the CIF’s Clean Technology Fund (CTF) to issue investment- grade bonds of up to $6.2bn and raise significant new finance for scaling eligible private and public projects in clean energy and sustainable infrastructure in emerging economies. The bonds are planned to be issued in 2022 in the City of London and could mobilize up to $700 million annually. At its full potential, this initiative could leverage a further $70 billion from both the private and public sector at the project level, contributing significantly to the

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 357 6.4.8 Research and development spending The Global Challenge Research Fund (GCRF) provides dedicated funding to research focused on addressing global challenges which most significantly impact upon developing countries. It achieves this by supporting challenge-led disciplinary and interdisciplinary research, strengthening capability for research and innovation within Low and Middle Income Countries, and providing an agile response to emergencies, where there is an urgent research and on-the-ground need. From 2016–2021, this represents a UK investment of up The Ayrton Fund commitment was a new commitment announced by the UK Government as part of the doubling of UK International Climate Finance (ICF) announced by the Prime Minster at the UN Climate Action Summit in New York in 2019. It is a commitment to spend £1 billion on ODA funded research, development and demonstration (RD&D) for innovative clean energy technologies and business models for developing countries over five years from April 2021. Its vision is to help drive forward the clean energy transition in developing countries, by creating and demonstrating new technologies and business models to deploy them. The Ayrton Fund commitment will combine and co-ordinate a range of funding platforms and programmes targeting different aspects of the technology research, development and demonstration needs. This will include £100 million to fund research into clean energy storage, distribution and usage though existing funds such as GCRF and the Newton Fund, as well as support through a portfolio of new and existing programmes including, amongst others, Transforming Energy Access (TEA), the Clean Energy Innovation Facility (CEIF), Climate Compatible Growth (CCG), Modern Energy Cooking Services (MECS) and the Low Energy Inclusive Appliances (LEIA). At COP 26 in Glasgow, the UK announced the scale-up by £126.4 million, to March 2026, of TEA, one of the key delivery platforms for The Newton Fund supports bilateral and regional research and innovation partnerships between the UK and selected middle income countries agreed at a national level. The aim of this is to address specific global development challenges and build research and innovation capacity. It operates through matched funding, with partner countries contributing similar resources to support the partnership. From 2014–2021 a UK investment of up to £735 million was made with ‘match’ from partner countries. The Gilbert Initiative provides an organising framework for a coherent UK Government portfolio in climate resilient food systems by providing an oversight structure that will enable coordination and communication on investment plans and existing programmes; a UK Government light-touch reporting on results from food systems investments and framework for collaboration on specific investments. The Climate and Resilience Research Programme (CLARE) announced at COP26 (£100 million) is a partnership between UK ICF and the International Development Research Council. The programme will support research to improve our understanding of weather and climate systems across African and the likely impacts of future change. It will also support research and innovation focused on low-carbon and climate resilient technology as well as help strengthen local capacity to undertake and benefit from cutting edge climate research and evidence for development. The programme has three main firstly, to produce world-leading science to advance knowledge of African climate variability and change and enhance prediction of future African climate; secondly, to drive improved knowledge, methods and tools on how climate information and services can be better designed for, delivered and integrated into major decisions today and thirdly, to support international collaboration and the development of scientific capacity in Africa. 358 8th National Communication The Global Centre on Biodiversity for Climate (GCBC) announced at COP26 with £40 million over 2022/23 – 2024/25, is a UK-ICF funded research and development programme.
The Global Centre will address critical research gaps in how the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity can deliver climate solutions and improve livelihoods in developing countries, to be delivered through a partnership of research institutions and experts from the global north and south. 6.5 echnology development and transfer Some illustrative examples Global Energy Storage Programme (GESP): The UK was one of the main donors to the GESP (£200 million). Collective GESP funding is expected to mobilise an additional $2 billion public and private investments for vital technologies in energy storage. Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP): the UK supports the ESMAP-IFC Offshore Wind (OSW) Development Programme which was launched in March 2019 with the aim of accelerating the adoption of offshore wind in emerging markets. As part of the programme, in 2019 delegates from 12 developing countries participated in a week- long offshore wind study tour to the UK to visit British research centres, ports, manufacturers, and industry experts. This study tour has helped a number of participating countries such as Vietnam 7 and the Philippines 8 to develop and publish offshore wind roadmaps. The GSMA Innovation Fund for Climate Resilience and The UK committed £5 million to support this fund which will help accelerate the testing, adoption and scalability of digital innovations that enable the world’s most vulnerable populations to adapt, anticipate and absorb the negative impacts of climate change. In addition, the UK provided £5.5m seed funding to the Global Innovation Fund to support the establishment the ‘Innovating for Climate Resilience fund’, which will invest, through grant, equity, and debt instruments, in innovations with the potential to scale and support the world’s poorest to build resilience Clean Energy Innovation Facility (CEIF): In 2019 the UK launched the £50 million Clean Energy Innovation Facility with this money being provided by end of 2021/22, which aims to accelerate the commercialisation of promising innovative clean technologies in key hard-to-abate sectors through four delivery sustainable cooling (IFC), industrial decarbonisation (World Bank ESMAP), energy storage (Innovate UK) and smart energy (Asian Development Bank). CEIF contributed to the UK’s pledge to double its public sector spending on clean energy innovation to £400 million in 2020/2021 through Mission Innovation. To date, CEIF has supported countries including India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Somalia, Tanzania, Carbon Capture Usage The Carbon Capture Usage and Storage Programme aims to support developing countries to develop both the technical and institutional knowledge necessary to enable the development of CCUS technologies. The UK has contributed £70m to this programme between 12/13 and 17/18. The programme delivers against that objective by providing technical assistance to support pilot project activities to enable legal, policy or regulatory change and technology demonstration in-country. It is supporting countries including South Africa, Mexico, India, Indonesia, China and Nigeria. 7 8

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 359 The Energy Catalyst programme accelerates the innovation needed to end energy poverty. Through financial and advisory support, and by building strategic partnerships and uncovering new insights, Energy Catalyst supports the development of technologies and business models that can improve lives in Africa and Asia. Energy Catalyst is an Innovate UK programme with co-funding from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Global Challenges Research Fund, the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. Over the two years 2019, when GCRF began funding Energy Catalyst, and 2020, £8.4 million GCRF funding was dispersed through the Energy Catalyst Programme. UK ICF sought to support non-Annex I Parties with pollution abatement and remediation activities through the provision of air quality monitoring equipment through the World Bank Pollution Management and Environmental Health (PMEH) programme. However, as the programme moved into implementation, it was found that the target countries already had suitable equipment, and the programme was insufficiently flexible to allow for alternative activities (within the agree scope of the UK funding) to be supported. The UK’s evidence collection at business case stage has since become more robust, with the UK collecting evidence of demand from a range of sources. Unused funds from the PMEH Programme were re-directed to other ICF Programmes. 6.5.1 Securing policy commitments to accelerate low carbon technology deployment The UK is an active member of the International Energy Agency and has worked to ensure that the Agency has a strong focus on helping its members and the wider energy sector accelerate the clean energy transition drawing on its world-leading analysis and convening power. In 2021 the UK commissioned the production of the IEA’s 2050 Net-Zero Road Map for the energy sector. The report is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. Some illustrative examples 6.6.1 Capacity building for mitigation Nationally Determined Contribution Partnership (NDCP): The UK is a key member, current Co-Chair and one of the largest donors to the NDCP, with £11.3m provided from 16/17 to 21/22, a programme which supports developing countries to turn climate commitments made through the Paris Agreement into action. These commitments are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCP co-ordinates action to enhance and implement NDCs in developing countries, supporting countries to build their capacity in order to take effective climate action. This process provides a crucial forum for donor co-ordination at the country level, as NDCP has a broad membership of country, associate and institutional members that take part in the process, ensuring that there is no duplication of effort. NDCP provides demand-led support for action on both mitigation and adaptation, helping countries to implement the entirety of their NDC. The UK has led on the launch of the NDCP Partnership Action Fund at COP26. The multi-million dollar, multi-donor fund will improve NDCP’s capacity to respond to country support requests, acting as backstop funding by providing support when partners are not able to respond with their own resources.
It will enable the Partnership to build on their established country engagement process and support demand-led requests to improve and accelerate the implementation of NDCs and Long-

360 8th National Communication As of the end of financial year 2020/2021, the UK has contributed £135 million to the World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP). Specifically on Energy Transitions, the UK has contributed £37 million to ESMAP to provide technical assistance to support developing countries to shift away from unabated coal-fired power generation, and to be transformational in sustainably creating the conditions for alternatives to coal and hence reducing emissions. This includes focusing on the welfare of people and communities, and closing and repurposing mining lands and coal power plants. The high- performing programme has mobilised capital investments from the World Bank and increased private sector support to renewable energy projects, with success in offshore wind, and decommissioning and repurposing four coal-fired power plants in South Africa. The UK also supports the global “Network of Energy Storage Testbeds” (NESTs) Initiative – in Morocco and South Africa – which is part of the Energy Storage Partnership under ESMAP; the testbeds enable countries to assess energy storage performance under realistic local grid conditions at low cost and at manageable scale. The Sustainable Infrastructure In 2017 the UK established the Sustainable Infrastructure Programme (SIP) in Latin America in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank. The purpose of the programme is to enable and accelerate the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions in Latin America, initially Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, focusing on supporting and catalysing private sector investments in low carbon infrastructure. The UK is providing up to £177.5 million from its ICF budget, with £111.5m being spent to date, to provide technical and financial support. This includes technical assistance to governments to help them shape their regulatory frameworks in a way that is attractive to private investors, support the development of local capital markets, while also investing in demonstration projects to show commercial viability. UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK PACT) is a flagship programme funded by the UK Government through its International Climate Finance (ICF) portfolio. The programme works in partnership with ODA-eligible countries with high emissions reduction potential to support low-carbon development and clean growth transitions and to respond to the critical global need for capacity building to address the gap between NDC targets and their implementation. UK PACT works bilaterally with partner countries to deliver demand- led, flexible support in line with country priorities and in areas of UK expertise that currently focuses on areas like green finance, clean energy, sustainable transport, sustainable livelihoods, forests and land-use (including nature-based solutions), and climate policy and regulation with projects in delivery across 16 ODA- eligible countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In September 2021, the UK Prime Minister announced £200 million of new funding for UK PACT to continue its delivery and grow as a programme over the next four years to March 2026. This new funding is additional to the £60 million already committed As of March 2021, UK PACT projects have mobilised or invested a total of US$869.6 million for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. UK PACT has strengthened climate networks, such as in Mexico, where the creation of strong legislative networks alongside technical recommendations resulted in the approval of Mexico City’s congress of a legally binding commitment to net zero by 2050 and other climate related policies. UK PACT has also trained over 30,000 individuals, for example through training delivered to the Government of Colombia on the Paris Agreement’s transparency framework, and workshops delivered in China for public and private sector counterparts on ESG investment and TCFD disclosure. The 2050 Calculator is a £3.5 million bilateral capacity building programme that supports countries to build their own versions of this energy and emissions planning tool. The 2050 Calculator is a uniquely open, transparent and interactive model, originally developed in 2010

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 361 to help the UK Government plan the country’s low-carbon transition in an evidence-based way. Since 2012, UK International Climate Finance has supported the creation of 19 national and 6 regional energy models, which have been used to develop NDCs and action plans, raise awareness and inform long-term energy strategies. Calculators now cover 61 countries, territories, and cities. The current phase of the calculator programme is assisting India, Kenya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, and Colombia. The Climate Compatible Growth programme (£38 million) was announced at the African Investment Summit. It will provide tools and evidence (through a systems thinking approach) that supports investment decision takers in countries in Africa and Asia take an integrated and climate compatible approach about deployment of critical infrastructure capital. With a focus on energy and transport the research addresses how the design of physical infrastructure, regulatory and market systems can promote decarbonisation and how different infrastructure systems interact and can evolve to secure low carbon futures. The Taskforce for Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) programme (£2.8m, 2021-2023) provides funding to support the establishment of the TNFD, contributing to the crucial transition to a nature positive economy. The TNFD aims to give financial institutions and companies a complete picture of their nature-related risks and opportunities to incorporate into their decision-making processes, and to incentivise a shift away from activities that harm nature towards nature-positive projects. Defra have also funded TNFD African Voice to strengthen African country engagement with the TNFD. 6.6.2 Capacity building for adaptation Adaptation Research Alliance (ARA) has been co-developed with international partners from the Global North and South and was formally launched at COP26 by the UK. The Goal of ARA is to increase investment and research into developing and informing effective solutions to the impacts of climate change through action orientated research. UK ICF has provided leadership in its development and will provide money for the secretariat, and CLARE will deliver its principles.
The ARA membership currently includes 129 32 from Africa of which 31 Sub-Saharan Africa, 26 from Asia – largely led by India and Bangladesh (18 org), 43 from Europe, 5 from North America, including one from St. Lucia, 5 from South America, 6 International Organisations. The Adaptation Action Coalition (AAC) supported by the UK, Bangladesh, Egypt, Malawi, the Netherlands and St Lucia has the intent is to get all 122 countries that have signed the UNCAS ‘Call for Action’ to join the coalition, and thereby commit to increasing action on adaptation and resilience. This is a major COP26 deliverable, demonstrating a shift in the focus being given to adaptation and resilience which a priority developing country ask. The UK specifically supports several key workstreams under the AAC including the Locally Led Adaptation initiative delivered by WRI and IIED and the Water Tracker managed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) to integrate water into national Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth (ICRG) in ICRG is a UK ICF funded, £25 million technical assistance programme, delivered in partnership with Government of India (GOI). ICRG interventions, at national and sub-national level, seek to facilitate more effective investment in natural resource management (NRM) infrastructure built under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) to support resilient livelihoods. By integrating climate information services and risk management into MGNREGS, ICRG helps improve abilities of poor and vulnerable people to cope with climate change impacts. MGNREGA is one of the world’s largest social protection programme with

362 8th National Communication an annual budget of £7-8 billion, supporting around 70 million households to cope with poverty and marginalisation every year. The Centre for Disaster Protection This programme is the UK’s flagship Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) technical assistance programme. Total UK financing from the start in 2017 to March 2022 has been approximately £27 million. It supports developing countries and the humanitarian and development community to strengthen their pre- disaster planning and financial arrangements so they can better manage crisis and disaster risks, thereby reducing the impact on people and helping to safeguard economic development. It is a partnership between the UK Government, the World Bank, research institutions and the private sector. It draws upon UK and global expertise in risk, finance and Advice and impartial advice and analytics for developing countries, development and humanitarian agencies, civil society and other key actors, supporting them to design and implement risk financing arrangements fective systems for disaster preparedness, b. Research and investment in global public goods that develop best practice, methodologies and tools, and produce evaluations and Capacity knowledge and training for developing country Ministries of Finance, national disaster management agencies and other line ministries, as well as humanitarian agencies, civil society and other relevant stakeholders. work to generate and incubate new and innovative solutions to development and humanitarian problems, including by bringing together experts om the public and private sectors and other fields. influencing the multilateral system and external partners to align policy and programming with emerging best DRF practice to Domestic insurance market str engthening insurance regulation and supervision, work to ensuring appropriate products are available for people apacity for technology transfer Newton Fund (see above Section 6.4.8) independent evaluation has found at least 3,228 collaborations and partnerships have been formed under Newton Fund, which have led to over 5,700 publications. Award Holders strongly agreed that working in partnership has improved the quality of their work, developed their research and translational skills, and facilitated access to resources, while the usefulness and applicability of sampled research outputs were found to contribute to solving development challenges. An online survey ward Holders from industry and technology sectors reported that their capacity to translate research into products, solutions or policies had improved; • 83% had been able to establish new institutional and commercial links; eported their profile was raised in the field of applied research and product

Chapter 6 Financial Assistance and Support for Technologies 363 • 76% indicated their capacity to commer cialise innovative products or apacity building for negotiations Climate Ambition Support Alliance (CASA): The CASA programme aims to increase the capacity and capability of climate-vulnerable country negotiators to engage in international climate negotiations, helping to preserve and enhance the rules-based international system and increase appetite for higher ambition. Phase 1 of CASA was launched in 2018 and runs until January 2024, building on the UK’s previous Negotiations Support Programme. UK ICF has committed £15.6 million, of which £8.45m has been spent to date, to the programme to provide legal, technical, strategic, diplomatic and media support before, during and after the negotiations. To date CASA has been providing in situ support to the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the High Ambition Coalition (HAC) and individual developing country negotiators. At COP26, groups and negotiators supported by CASA were engaged; they secured a profile and made meaningful contributions towards the Summit’s outcomes and the Glasgow Climate Pact. The support provided by the programme is highly valued by recipients, with the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States stating at COP26 that CASA had been critical in creating an enabling environment for AOSIS members to fulfil their technical work and foster collaboration. 6.7 A ccelerating the alignment of finance flows and raising ambition In 2019 the UK made a commitment to align all UK ODA with the Paris Agreement. This commitment was outlined in the 2019 Green Finance Strategy, which also identified four key criteria for what it would mean for ODA to be Paris opriate carbon price in relevant bilateral programme appraisal; 2. Ensuring any investment support for fossil fuels affecting emissions is in line with the eement temperature goals and transition plans; oportionate approach to climate risk assurance; and elevant programmes do not undermine the ambition in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and adaptation plans.