You are given two reports by the government agency.  

Report 1:
A high-quality, reliable cost estimate is a key tool for budgeting, planning, and managing the 2020 Census. According to OMB, programs must maintain current and well-documented estimates of program costs, and these estimates must encompass the full life-cycle of the program. Among other things, OMB states that generating reliable program cost estimates is a critical function necessary to support OMB’s capital programming process. Without this capability, agencies are at risk of experiencing program cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls. A reliable cost estimate is critical to the success of any federal government program. With the information from reliable estimates, managers can: make informed investment decisions, allocate program resources, measure program progress, proactively correct course when warranted, and ensure overall accountability for results. To be considered reliable, a cost estimate must meet the criteria for each of the four characteristics outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. According to our analysis, a cost estimate is considered reliable if the overall assessment ratings for each of the four characteristics are substantially or fully met. If any of the characteristics are not met, minimally met, or partially met, then the cost estimate does not fully reflect the characteristics of a high-quality estimate and cannot be considered reliable. Those characteristics are: Well-documented: An estimate is thoroughly documented, including source data and significance, clearly detailed calculations and results, and explanations of why particular methods and references were chosen. Data can be traced to their source documents. Accurate: An estimate is unbiased, the work is not overly conservative or overly optimistic, and is based on an assessment of most likely costs. Few, if any, mathematical mistakes are present. Credible: Any limitations of the analysis because of uncertainty or bias surrounding data or assumptions are discussed. Major assumptions are varied, and other outcomes are recomputed, to determine how sensitive they are to changes in the assumptions. Risk and uncertainty analysis is performed to determine the level of risk associated with the estimate. The estimate’s results are cross- checked, and an independent cost estimate (ICE) is conducted to see whether other estimation methods produce similar results. Comprehensive: An estimate has enough detail to ensure that cost elements are neither omitted nor double counted. All cost-influencing ground rules and assumptions are detailed in the estimate’s documentation. Meeting best practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide for a reliable cost estimate has been a long-standing challenge for the Bureau. In 2008 we reported that the 2010 Census cost estimate was not reliable because it lacked documentation and was not comprehensive, accurate, or credible. For example, in our 2008 report on the Bureau’s cost estimation process, Bureau officials were unable to provide documentation that supported the assumptions for the initial 2001 life-cycle cost estimate as well as the updates. Consequently, we recommended that the Bureau establish guidance, policies, and procedures for estimating costs that would meet best practices criteria. The Bureau agreed with the recommendation and said at the time that it already had efforts underway to improve its future cost estimation methods and systems. Moreover, weaknesses in the life-cycle cost estimate were one reason we designated the 2010 Census a GAO High- Risk Area in 2008. In 2012 we reported that, while the Bureau was taking steps to strengthen its life-cycle cost estimates, it had not yet established guidance for developing cost estimates. We recommended that the Bureau finalize its guidance, policies, and procedures for cost estimation in accordance with best practices. The Bureau agreed with the overall theme of the report but did not comment on the recommendation. During this review we found that the Bureau took steps to address this recommendation, which is discussed later in this report. Such guidance can help to institutionalize best practices and ensure consistent processes and operations for producing reliable estimates. In a 2016 report we found that the October 2015 version of the Bureau’s life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census was not reliable. Overall, we reported that the 2020 Census life-cycle cost estimate partially met two of the characteristics of a reliable cost estimate (comprehensive and accurate) and minimally met the other two (well-documented and credible). We recommended that the Bureau take specific steps to ensure its cost estimate meets the characteristics of a high-quality estimate. The Bureau agreed with this recommendation, and took steps to improve the reliability of its cost estimate, which we focus on later in this report. Consequently, an unreliable life-cycle cost estimate is one of the reasons we designated the 2020 Census a GAO High-Risk Area in 2017. In October 2015, the Bureau estimated the cost of the 2020 Census to be $12.3 billion. According to the Bureau, the October 2015 version was the Bureau’s first attempt to model the life-cycle cost of its planned 2020 Census, in contrast to its earlier 2011 estimate, which the Bureau said was intended to produce an approximation of potential savings and to begin developing the methodology for producing decennial life-cycle cost estimates covering all phases of the decennial life cycle. To help control costs while maintaining accuracy, the Bureau introduced significant change to how it conducts the decennial census in 2020. Its planned innovations include reengineering how it builds its address list, improving self-response by encouraging the use of the Internet and telephone, using administrative records to reduce field work, and reengineering field operations using technology to reduce manual effort and improve productivity. In contrast to the estimated $12.3 billion in 2015, the 2020 Census would cost $17.8 billion in constant 2020 dollars if the Bureau repeated the 2010 Census design and methods, according to the Bureau’s estimates. In October 2017, Commerce announced that it had updated the October 2015 life-cycle cost estimate, projecting the life-cycle cost of the 2020 Census to be $15.6 billion, an increase of over $3 billion (27 percent) over its 2015 estimate. (See figure 1.) In developing the 2017 version of the cost estimate, Bureau cost estimators identified cost inputs, their ranges for possible outcomes, and overall cost estimating relationships (i.e., logical or mathematical formulas, or both). To identify cost inputs and the ranges of potential outcomes, the Bureau worked with subject matter experts and used historical data to support assumptions and generate inputs. The Bureau’s cost estimation team used a software tool to generate the cost estimate. Because cost estimates predict future program costs, uncertainty is always associated with them. For example, data from the past (such as fuel prices) may not always be relevant in the future. Risk and uncertainty refer to the fact that because a cost estimate is a forecast, there is always a chance that the actual cost will differ from the estimate. One way to determine whether a program is realistically budgeted is to perform an uncertainty analysis, so that the probability associated with achieving its point estimate can be determined, usually relying on simulations such as those of Monte Carlo methods. This can be particularly useful in portraying the uncertainty implications of various cost estimates. Consistent with cost estimation practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, the estimate was compared with two independent cost estimates (ICE), developed by Commerce’s Office of Acquisition Management (OAM) and the Bureau’s Office of Cost Estimation, Analysis, and Assessment. The offices producing the ICEs and the cost estimate team worked together to examine the process each used, an effort known as the reconciliation process. Through this reconciliation, the Bureau identified areas where discrepancies existed and elements that could require additional review and possible improvement. According to Bureau documentation the estimate will be updated as the program meets milestones and to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions. Figure 2 details the Bureau’s cost estimation process. OAM was involved extensively in the development of the 2017 estimate, an increased involvement compared to 2015, according to Bureau officials. OAM participated in regular review meetings throughout the development of the estimate and also developed an independent cost estimate, as shown in the figure below. End-to-end system testing activities for the 2020 Census are currently underway in Providence, Rhode Island. According to the Bureau, information collected from the test, such as overall response rates and the use of administrative records to inform census records, will inform future versions of the life-cycle cost estimate. Some updates from the test will be incorporated into the next cost estimate, which will be available in the first quarter of the coming fiscal year. Since our June 2016 report, in which we reviewed the Bureau’s 2015 version of the cost estimate, the Bureau has made significant progress. For example, the Bureau has put into place a work breakdown structure (WBS) that defines the work, products, activities, and resources necessary to accomplish the 2020 Census and is standardized for use in budget planning, operational planning, and cost estimation. However, the Bureau’s October 2017 cost estimate for the 2020 Census does not fully reflect characteristics of a high-quality estimate as described in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide and cannot be considered reliable. Our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide describes best practices for developing reliable cost estimates. For our reporting needs, we collapsed these best practices into four characteristics for sound cost estimating— comprehensive, well-documented, accurate, and credible—and identified specific best practices for each characteristic. To be considered reliable, an organization must meet or substantially meet each characteristic. Our review found the Bureau met or substantially met three out of the four characteristics of a reliable cost estimate, while it partially met one characteristic: well-documented. When compared to the October 2015 estimate, the 2017 estimate shows considerable improvement. (See figure 3 below.) Cost estimates are considered valid if they are well-documented to the point they can be easily repeated or updated and can be traced to original sources through auditing, according to best practices. The Bureau only partially met the criteria for well-documented, as set forth in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. A cost estimate that does not fully meet the criteria for well-documented cannot be used by management to make informed and effective implementation decisions. The well-documented characteristic comprises five best practices. The Bureau substantially met two out of five best practices (as shown in figure 4). First, the estimate describes in sufficient detail the calculations performed and the estimating methodology used to derive each element’s cost, and the cost estimate had been reviewed by management. Since cost estimates can inform key decisions and budget requests, it is vital that management review and understand how the estimate was developed, including risks associated with the underlying data and methods. The cost estimate only partially met three best practices for the characteristic of being well-documented. In general, some documentation was missing, inconsistent, or difficult to understand. First, we found that source data did not always support the information described in the basis of estimate document or could not be found in the files provided for two of the Bureau’s largest field operations: Address Canvassing and Non- Response Follow-Up (NRFU). For example, the cost estimate documentation referred to actual data from the 2010 Census and information obtained from experts as sources for address canvassing rework rates. However, the folder source documents provided as support for the basis of estimate did not include this information. Next, in several cases, we could not replicate calculations, such as for mileage costs, using the description provided. Lastly, we found that some of the cost elements did not trace clearly to supporting spreadsheets and assumption documents. Failure to document an estimate in enough detail makes it more difficult to replicate calculations, or to detect possible errors in the estimate; reduces transparency of the estimation process; and can undermine the ability to use the information to improve future cost estimates or even to reconcile the estimate with another independent cost estimate. The Bureau told us it would continue to make improvements to ensure the estimate is well- documented. For the estimate to be considered well-documented, the Bureau will need to address these issues. An accurate cost estimate supports measurement of program progress by providing unbiased and correct data, which can help management ensure accountability for scheduled results. We found the Bureau’s cost estimate substantially met the criteria for accuracy. As shown in figure 5, and in line with best practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, the estimate was not overly optimistic; appeared to be free of errors; was based on historical data or input from subject matter experts; and, according to Bureau officials, is updated regularly as information becomes available. The Bureau can enhance the accuracy of their estimate by increasing the level of detail included in the documentation, such as detail on specific inflation indices used, and by monitoring actual costs against estimates. We identified areas for improvement, which, according to Bureau officials, will be addressed as part of its ongoing efforts. For example, while the basis of estimate document describes different inflation indexes, it was not clear exactly which indexes were applied to the various cost elements in the estimate. Also, evidence of how variances between estimated costs and actual expenses would be tracked over time was not available at the time of our analysis. Tools to track variance enable management to measure progress against planned outcomes. Bureau officials stated that they already have systems in place that can be adapted for tracking estimated and actual costs. All estimates include a certain amount of informed judgment about the future. Assumptions made at the start of a program can turn out to be inaccurate. Credible cost estimates identify limitations due to uncertainty or bias surrounding data or assumptions, and control for these uncertainties by identifying and quantifying cost elements that represent the most risk. We found that the Bureau’s cost estimate substantially met the criteria for credible, as shown in figure 6 below. The Bureau’s cost estimate clearly identifies risks and uncertainties, and describes approaches taken to mitigate them. In line with best practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, the Bureau did the following: Sensitivity analysis. The Bureau conducted sensitivity analysis to identify possible changes to estimated costs for the 2020 Census based on varying major assumptions, parameters, and data inputs. For example, the Bureau calculated the likely cost implications for a range of possible response rates to identify a range of projected costs and to calculate appropriate reserves for risk. Bureau officials stated that they also identified the estimate input parameters that contributed the most to estimate uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty analysis. A cost estimate is a forecast, and as such, there is always a chance that the actual cost will differ from the estimate. Uncertainty is the indefiniteness about the outcome of a situation. Uncertainty is assessed in cost estimate models to estimate the risk (or probability) that a specific funding level will be exceeded. We found the Bureau performed an uncertainty analysis on a portion of the estimate to determine whether estimated costs were realistic and to establish the probability of achieving projections outlined in the estimate. The Bureau used a combination of modeling based on Monte Carlo analysis and allocations of funding for risks. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed on a portion of the estimate to account for uncertainty around various operational parameters for which a range of outcomes was possible, including Internet response rates and the extent to which data collection issues might be resolved using administrative records. To account for the inherent uncertainty of assumptions included within the life-cycle cost estimate, the Bureau added funding to the cost estimate totaling approximately $292 million to account for risks based on the results of the Monte Carlo analysis. For other risks, such as acquisition lead time and the possibility of delays in information technology (IT) development, contingency funding was added to the estimate to reflect the potential cost of resolving these issues, through use of a backup system or an alternative approach. These are described as “special risks” in the Bureau’s basis of estimate, and total approximately $171 million. Based on additional sensitivity analysis, the Bureau added approximately $965 million to the cost estimate to reflect discrete risks outlined in the risk register as well as those associated with (1) variability in self-response rates, (2) the effect of fluctuations in the size and wage rate of the temporary workforce on the cost of field operations, and (3) the potential need to reduce the enumerator-to- manager staffing ratio in case expected efficiencies in field operations are not realized. In addition to these provisions, the Secretary of Commerce added a contingency amount of about $1.2 billion to account for what the Bureau refers to as unknown-unknowns. Bureau documentation states that conducting a decennial census is an extremely complex, high-risk operation. In order to mitigate some of the risk, contingency funding must be available to initiate ad hoc activities necessary to overcome unforeseen issues. According to Bureau documentation these include such risks as natural disasters or cyber-attacks. The Bureau provides a description of how the general risk contingency is calculated. However, this description does not clearly link calculated amounts to the risks themselves. In our June 2016 report we reported the Bureau had not properly accounted for risk and recommended the Bureau, in part; improve control over how risk and uncertainty are accounted for. We continue to believe the prior recommendation from our June 2016 report remains valid and should be addressed: that the Bureau properly account for risk in the 2020 Census cost estimate, among other things. As such, risks need to be linked to the $1.2 billion general risk contingency fund. Independent cost estimate. According to best practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, an independent cost estimate should be performed to determine whether alternate estimate approaches produce similar results. The Bureau compared their estimate with two independent cost estimates, developed by Commerce’s Office of Acquisition Management and the Bureau’s Office of Cost Estimation and Assessment. As part of their process for finalizing the cost estimate, Bureau officials reconciled differences between the estimates in discussions with the two offices, resulting in more conservative assumptions by the Bureau around risk and uncertainty in both cases. In addition to implementing our recommendation to properly account for risk, going forward, while the Bureau substantially met the credibility characteristic it will be important for them to also integrate regular cross-checks of methodology into their cost estimation process. In our analysis we observed that no specific cross-checks of cost methodology were performed. According to the Bureau, cross- checks were not performed because the Bureau considered the independent cost estimates as overall cross-checks on the reliability of their methodology and did not conduct additional cross-checks. The main purpose of cross-checking is to determine whether alternative methods for specific cost elements within the cost estimate could produce similar results. An independent cost estimate, though important for the credibility of an estimate, does not fulfill the same function as a targeted cross-check of individual elements. Comprehensive estimates have enough detail to ensure that cost elements are neither omitted nor double-counted, all cost-influencing assumptions are detailed in the estimate’s documentation, and a work breakdown structure is defined. Our analysis of the 2017 cost estimate demonstrates improvement over the 2015 cost estimate when the Bureau’s cost estimate only partially met the criteria for comprehensive. We found the Bureau met or substantially met all four best practices for the comprehensive characteristic, as shown in figure 7. For example, all life-cycle costs are included in the estimate along with a complete description of the 2020 Census program and current schedule. We also found that the Bureau substantially met criteria for documenting cost influencing ground rules and assumptions. A standardized WBS (as detailed in table 1) with supporting dictionary outlines the major work of the program and describes the activities and deliverables at the project level where costs are tracked. In 2016, the Bureau’s WBS did not contain sufficient detail and we found significant differences in the presentation of the work between sources. In 2017, based on our review of Bureau documentation and interviews with Bureau officials, we found that the WBS is standardized and cost elements are presented in detail. The WBS is a necessary program management tool because it provides a basic framework for a variety of related tasks like estimating costs, developing schedules, identifying resources, determining where risks may occur, and providing the means for measuring program status. Although the Bureau’s updated life-cycle cost estimate reflects three of the four characteristics of a reliable cost estimate, we are not making any new recommendations to the Bureau in this report. We continue to believe the prior recommendation, made in 2016, remains relevant: that the Secretary of Commerce ensure that the Bureau finalizes the steps needed to fully meet the characteristics of a high-quality estimate, most notably in the well-documented area. The Bureau told us it has used our best practices for cost estimation to develop their cost estimate, and will focus on those best practices that require attention moving forward. Without a reliable cost estimate, the Bureau is limited in its ability to make informed decisions about program resources and to effectively measure progress against operational objectives. OMB, in its guidance for preparing and executing agency budgets, cites that credible cost estimates are vital for sound management decision making and for any program or capital project to succeed. A well- developed cost estimate serves as a tool for program development and oversight, supporting management to make informed decisions. According to the Bureau, the 2020 Census cost estimate is used as a management tool to guide decision making. Bureau officials stated the cost estimate is used to examine the cost impact of program changes. For example, the cost estimate served as the basis for the fiscal year 2019 funding request developed by the Bureau. The Bureau also said it used the 2020 Census life-cycle cost estimate to establish cost controls during budget formulation activities and to monitor spending levels for fiscal year 2019 activities. According to the Bureau, as detailed operational and implementation plans are defined, the 2020 Census life- cycle cost estimate has been and will continue to be used to support ongoing “what-if” analyses in determining the cost impacts of design decisions. Specifically, using the cost estimate to model the impact of changes on overall cost, the Bureau adjusted the scope of the Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing (CEDCaP) operation. The processes for developing and updating estimates are designed to inform management about program progress and the use of program resources, supporting cost-driven planning efforts and well-informed decision making. Our work has identified a number of best practices for use in developing guidance related to cost estimation and analysis that are the basis of effective program cost estimating and should result in reliable and valid cost estimates that management can use for making informed decisions. In 2012 we reported that the Bureau had not yet established guidance for developing cost estimates. We recommended that the Bureau establish guidance, policies, and procedures for developing cost estimates that would meet best practice criteria. The Bureau agreed with the theme of the report but did not specifically agree with the recommendation. Moreover, in June 2016, we also reported that the cost estimation team did not record how and why it changed assumptions that were provided to it and did not document the sources of all data it used. The documentation of these changes to assumptions did not happen because the Bureau lacked written guidance and procedures for the cost estimation team to follow. During this review we found the Bureau has since established reliable guidance, processes, and policies for developing cost estimates and managing the cost estimation process. The following documents, shown in table 2, establish roles and responsibilities for oversight and approval of cost estimation processes, provide a detailed description of the steps taken to produce a high-quality cost estimate, and clarify the process for updating the cost estimate and associated documents over the life of a project. The Decennial Census Program’s Cost Estimate and Analysis Process, which provides a detailed description of the steps taken to produce a high-quality estimate, is reliable as it met the criteria for 8 steps and substantially met the criteria for 4 steps of the 12 best steps outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, as shown below in figure 8. To avoid cost overruns and to support high performance, it will be important for the Bureau to abide by their newly developed policies and guidance and continue to use the life-cycle cost estimate as a management tool. The 2017 life-cycle cost estimate includes significantly higher costs than those included in the 2015 estimate. In 2015, the Bureau estimated that they could conduct the operation at a cost of $12.3 billion in constant 2020 dollars. The Bureau’s latest cost estimate, announced in October 2017, reflects the same design, but at an expected cost of $15.6 billion. Figure 9 below shows the change in cost by WBS category for 2015 and 2017. The largest increases occurred in the Response, Managerial Contingency, and Census/Survey Engineering categories. Increased costs of $1.3 billion in the response category (costs related to collecting, maintaining, and processing survey response data) were in part due to reduced assumptions for self-response rates, leading to increases in the amount of data collected in the field, which is more costly to the Bureau. Contingency allocations increased overall from $1.35 billion in 2015 to $2.6 billion in 2017, as the Bureau gained a greater understanding of risks facing the 2020 Census. Increases of $838 million in the Census/Survey Engineering category were due mainly to the cost of an IT contract for integrating decennial survey systems that was not included in the 2015 cost estimate. Bureau officials attribute a decrease of $551 million in estimated costs for Program Management to changes in the categorization of costs associated with risks: In the 2017 version of the estimate, estimated costs related to program risks were allocated to their corresponding WBS element. More generally, factors that contributed to cost fluctuations between the 2015 and 2017 cost estimates include: changes in assumptions for census operations, improved ability to anticipate and quantify risk, an overall increase in IT costs, and more defined contract requirements. Several assumptions for the implementation of the 2020 Census have changed since the 2015 cost estimate. Some assumptions contributing to cost changes, mainly in the Response (related to collecting and processing response data) and Frame (the mapping and collecting addresses to frame enumeration activities) categories, include the following: Self-response rates. Changes in assumptions for expected self- response rates contributed to increases in the response category, as the assumed rate decreased from 63.5 percent in 2015 to 60.5 percent in 2017, thereby increasing the anticipated percentage and associated cost of nonresponse follow-up. When the Bureau does not receive responses by mail, phone, or Internet, census enumerators visit each nonresponding household to obtain data. Thus, reduced self-response rates lead to increases in the amount of data collected in the field, which is more costly to the Bureau. Bureau officials attributed this decrease to a forecasted reduction in Internet response due to added authentication steps at log in and the elimination of the function allowing users to save their responses and return later to complete the survey. Productivity rates. The productivity of enumerators collecting data for NRFU is another variable in the cost estimate that was updated, contributing to cost increases in the response category. Expected productivity rates for NRFU decreased from the 2015 estimate of 4 attempts per hour to 2.9. According to Bureau documentation, this more conservative estimate is based on historical data, rather than research and test data. In-office address canvassing rates. The Bureau will not go door-to- door to conduct in-field address canvassing across the country to update address and map information for every housing unit, as it has in prior decennial censuses. Rather, some areas would only need a review of their address and map information using computer imagery and third-party data sources—what the Bureau calls “in-office” address canvassing procedures. However, in March 2017, citing budget uncertainty the Bureau decided to discontinue one of the phases of in-office review address canvassing for the 2020 Census. The cancellation of that phase of in-office review is expected to increase the number of housing units canvassed in-field by 5 percent (from 25 to 30 percent of all canvassed housing units). In-field canvassing is more labor intensive compared to in office procedures. The 2017 version of the cost estimate reflects this increase in workload for in-field address canvassing, though overall changes in estimated costs for the Frame category, of which Address Canvassing is a part, were minimal. Staffing. Updated analysis resulted in changes to several staffing assumptions, which resulted in decreases across WBS categories. Changes included reduced pay rates for field data collection staff based on current labor market conditions and reductions in the length of staff engagement. In general, contingency allocations increased overall from $1.35 billion in 2015 to $2.6 billion in 2017. This increase in contingency can be attributed, in part, to the Bureau gaining a clearer understanding of risk and uncertainty in the 2020 Census as it approaches. The Bureau developed some of its contingency based on proven risk management techniques, including Monte Carlo analysis and allocated funding for known risk scenarios. The 2017 estimate includes close to $1.4 billion in estimated costs for these risks, almost three times the amount included in the 2015 estimate. The basis of estimate contains detail on the various risks and the process for calculating the associated contingency. The 2017 version also includes a contingency amount of $1.2 billion for general risks, or unknown-unknowns, such as natural disasters and cyber-attacks. Contingency amounts were reallocated within the WBS to more closely reflect the nature of the risk: Bureau officials attribute a decrease from the 2015 estimate of $551 million in estimated costs for program management to changes in the categorization of costs associated with risks. Officials stated that, in 2015, discrete program risks were previously consolidated as program management costs. In 2017, these discrete costs were reallocated to associate risks with the appropriate WBS element. For example, contingency amounts related to the likelihood of achieving a certain response rate previously included in the program management work breakdown category are now a part of the “response” work breakdown category. Increases in IT costs, totaling $1.59 billion, represented almost 50 percent of the total cost increase from 2015 to 2017. The total share of IT costs as a percentage of total census costs increased from 28 percent in 2015 to 32 percent in 2017, or from $3.41 billion to approximately $5 billion. Increases in IT costs are spread across seven cost categories. Figure 10 shows the IT and non-IT cost by WBS for the 2017 cost estimate. IT costs in infrastructure, response data, and census/survey WBSs account for the majority of the approximately $5 billion. The Bureau’s October 2015 cost estimate included IT costs for, among other things, system engineering, test and evaluation, and infrastructure, as well as for a portion of the Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing (CEDCaP) program. The 2017 estimated IT cost increases were due, in large part, to the Bureau (1) updating the cost estimate for CEDCaP; (2) including an estimate for technical integration services that contributed to increases in the Census and Survey Engineering category; and (3) updating costs related to other major contracts (such as mobile device as a service, field IT services, and payroll systems). Bureau documents described an overall improvement in the Bureau’s ability to define and specify contract requirements. This resulted in updated estimates for several contracts, including for the Census Questionnaire Assistance (CQA) contract. Assumptions regarding call volume to the CQA were increased by 5 percent to account for expected response by phone after the elimination of the option to save Internet responses and return to complete the form later. The Bureau also cited updated cost data and the results of reconciliation with independent cost estimates as factors contributing to the increased costs of other major contracts, including for the procurement of data collection devices. The Secretary of Commerce provided comments on a draft of this report on August 2, 2018. The comments are reprinted in appendix II. The Department of Commerce generally agreed with our findings regarding the improvements the Census Bureau has made in its cost estimates. However, Commerce did not agree with our assessment that the Bureau’s 2017 lifecycle cost estimate is “not reliable.” Commerce noted that it had conducted two independent cost analyses and was satisfied that the cost estimate was reliable. The Bureau also provided technical comments that we incorporated, as appropriate. We maintain that, to be considered reliable, a cost estimate must meet or substantially meet the criteria for each of the four characteristics outlined in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. These characteristics are derived from measures consistently applied by cost estimating organizations throughout the federal government and industry and are considered best practices for the development of reliable cost estimates. Without a reliable cost estimate, the Bureau is limited in its ability to make informed decisions about program resources and to effectively measure progress against operational objectives. Thus, while the Bureau has made considerable progress in all four of the characteristics, it has only partially met the criteria for the characteristic of being well-documented. Until the Bureau meets or substantially meets the criteria for this characteristic, the cost estimate cannot be considered reliable. As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of the report to the appropriate congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the Under Secretary of Economic Affairs, the Acting Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, and other interested parties. In addition, this report is available at no charge on the GAO website at http://gao.gov. If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix III. The purpose of our review was to evaluate the reliability of the Census Bureau’s (Bureau) life-cycle cost estimate using our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. We reviewed (1) the extent to which the Bureau’s life-cycle cost estimate and associated guidance met our best practices for cost estimation using documentation and information obtained in discussions with the Bureau related to the 2020 life-cycle cost estimate and (2) compared the 2015 and 2017 life-cycle cost estimates to describe key drivers of cost growth. For both objectives we reviewed documentation from the Bureau on the 2020 life-cycle cost estimate and interviewed Bureau and Department of Commerce officials. For the first objective, we relied on our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide as criteria. Our cost specialists assessed measures consistently applied by cost-estimating organizations throughout the federal government and industry and considered best-practices for developing reliable cost estimates. We analyzed the cost estimating practices used by the Bureau against these best practices and evaluated them in four categories: comprehensive, well-documented, accurate, and credible. Comprehensive. The cost estimate should include both government and contractor costs of the program over its full life-cycle, from inception of the program through design, development, deployment, and operation and maintenance to retirement of the program. It should also completely define the program, reflect the current schedule, and be technically reasonable. Comprehensive cost estimates should be structured in sufficient detail to ensure that cost elements are neither omitted nor double counted. Specifically, the cost estimate should be based on a product-oriented work breakdown structure (WBS) that allows a program to track cost and schedule by defined deliverables, such as hardware or software components. Finally, where information is limited and judgments are made, the cost estimate should document all cost-influencing assumptions. Well-documented. A good cost estimate—while taking the form of a single number—is supported by detailed documentation that describes how it was derived and how the expected funding will be spent in order to achieve a given objective. Therefore, the documentation should capture in writing such things as the source data used, the calculations performed and their results, and the estimating methodology used to derive each WBS element’s cost. Moreover, this information should be captured in such a way that the data used to derive the estimate can be traced back to, and verified against, their sources so that the estimate can be easily replicated and updated. The documentation should also discuss the technical baseline description and how the data were normalized. Finally, the documentation should include evidence that the cost estimate was reviewed and accepted by management. Accurate. The cost estimate should provide for results that are unbiased, and it should not be overly conservative or optimistic. An estimate is accurate when it is based on an assessment of most likely costs; adjusted properly for inflation; and contains few, if any, minor mistakes. In addition, a cost estimate should be updated regularly to reflect significant changes in the program—such as when schedules or other assumptions change—and actual costs, so that it is always reflecting current status. During the update process, variances between planned and actual costs should be documented, explained, and reviewed. Among other things, the estimate should be grounded in a historical record of cost estimating and actual experiences on other comparable programs. Credible. The cost estimate should discuss any limitations of the analysis because of uncertainty or biases surrounding data or assumptions. Major assumptions should be varied, and other outcomes recomputed to determine how sensitive they are to changes in the assumptions. Risk and uncertainty analysis should be performed to determine the level of risk associated with the estimate. Further, the estimate’s cost drivers should be cross-checked, and an independent cost estimate conducted by a group outside the acquiring organization should be developed to determine whether other estimating methods produce similar results. If any of the characteristics are not met, minimally met, or partially met, then the cost estimate does not fully reflect the characteristics of a high- quality estimate and cannot be considered reliable. We also analyzed the Bureau’s cost estimation and analysis guidance and evaluated them against a 12-step process outlined in our Cost Estimation and Assessment Guide. A high-quality cost estimating process integrates the following: 1. Define estimate’s purpose. 2. Develop estimating plan. 3. Define program characteristics. 4. Determine estimating structure. 5. Identify ground rules and assumptions. 6. Obtain data. 7. Develop point estimate and compare it to an independent cost estimate. 8. Conduct sensitivity analysis. 9. Conduct risk and uncertainty analysis. 10. Document the estimate. 11. Present estimate to management for approval. 12. Update the estimate to reflect actual costs and changes. These 12 steps, when followed correctly, should result in reliable and valid cost estimates that management can use for making informed decisions. If any of the steps in the Bureau’s process do not meet, minimally meet, or partially meet the 12 steps, then the cost estimate guidance does not fully reflect best practices for developing a high-quality estimate and cannot be considered reliable. Lastly, to describe key drivers of cost growth, we compared cost information included in the 2015 and 2017 cost estimates. We analyzed both summary and detailed cost information to assess key changes in totals overall, by WBS category, and by information technology (IT) vs. Non-IT costs. We used this analysis in conjunction with information received from the Bureau during interviews and through document transfers to describe overall changes in the cost estimate from 2015 to 2017. We conducted this performance audit from December 2017 to August 2018 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. In addition to the contact named above, Lisa Pearson (Assistant Director), Karen Cassidy (Analyst in Charge), Brian Bothwell, Jackie Chapin, Ann Czapiewski, Jason Lee, Ty Mitchell, Kayla Robinson, and Tim Wexler made significant contributions to this report.

 

 Report 2:
Article I, Section 6, of the U.S. Constitution, states that the compensation of Members of Congress shall be "ascertained by law, and paid out of the Treasury of the United States." Additionally, the Twenty-Seventh Amendment to the Constitution states, "No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of Representatives shall have intervened." This amendment was submitted to the states on September 25, 1789, along with 11 other proposed amendments, 10 of which were ratified and became the Bill of Rights. It was not ratified until May 7, 1992. Since FY1983, Member salaries have been funded in a permanent appropriations account. The most recent pay adjustment for Members of Congress was in January 2009. Since then, the compensation for most Senators, Representatives, Delegates, and the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico has been $174,000. The only exceptions include the Speaker of the House ($223,500) and the President pro tempore of the Senate and the majority and minority leaders in the House and Senate ($193,400). This report provides historical tables on the rate of pay for Members of Congress since 1789; details on enacted legislation with language prohibiting the automatic annual pay adjustment since the most recent adjustment; the adjustments projected by the Ethics Reform Act as compared with actual adjustments in Member pay; and Member pay in constant and current dollars since 1992. Additional CRS products also address pay and benefits for Members of Congress: For information on actions taken each year since the establishment of the Ethics Reform Act adjustment procedure, see CRS Report 97-615, Salaries of Members of Congress: Congressional Votes, 1990-2018 , by Ida A. Brudnick. Members of Congress only receive salaries during the terms for which they are elected. Following their service, former Members of Congress may be eligible for retirement benefits, which are discussed in CRS Report RL30631, Retirement Benefits for Members of Congress , by Katelin P. Isaacs. For information on health insurance options available to Members, see CRS Report R43194, Health Benefits for Members of Congress and Designated Congressional Staff: In Brief , by Ada S. Cornell. For an overview of compensation, benefits, allowances, and selected limitations, see CRS Report RL30064, Congressional Salaries and Allowances: In Brief , by Ida A. Brudnick. There are three basic ways to adjust Member pay. Specific legislation was enacted to adjust Member pay prior to 1968. It has been used periodically since, most recently affecting pay for 1991. The second method by which Member pay can be increased is pursuant to recommendations from the President, based on those made by a quadrennial salary commission. In 1967, Congress established the Commission on Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Salaries to recommend salary increases for top-level federal officials (P.L. 90-206). Three times (in 1969, 1977, and 1987) Congress received pay increases made under this procedure; on three occasions it did not. Effective with passage of the Ethics Reform Act of 1989 ( P.L. 101-194 ), the commission ceased to exist. Its authority was assumed by the Citizens' Commission on Public Service and Compensation. Although the first commission under the 1989 act was to have convened in 1993, it did not meet. The third method by which the salary of Members can be changed is by annual adjustments. Prior to 1990, the pay of Members, and other top-level federal officials, was tied to the annual comparability increases provided to General Schedule (GS) federal employees. This procedure was established in 1975 ( P.L. 94-82 ). Such increases were recommended by the President, subject to congressional acceptance, disapproval, or modification. Congress accepted 5 such increases for itself—in 1975, 1979 (partial), 1984, 1985, and 1987—and declined 10 (1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1988, and 1989). The Ethics Reform Act of 1989 changed the method by which the annual adjustment is determined for Members and other senior officials. This procedure employs a formula based on changes in private sector wages and salaries as measured by the Employment Cost Index (ECI). The annual adjustment automatically goes into effect unless 1. Congress statutorily prohibits the adjustment; 2. Congress statutorily revises the adjustment; or 3. The annual base pay adjustment of GS employees is established at a rate less than the scheduled adjustment for Members, in which case Members would be paid the lower rate. Under this revised method, annual adjustments were accepted 13 times (adjustments scheduled for January 1991, 1992, 1993, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009) and denied 16 times (adjustments scheduled for January 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019). Although discussion of the Member pay adjustment sometimes occurs during consideration of annual appropriations bills, these bills do not contain funds for the annual salaries or pay adjustment for Members. Nor do they contain language authorizing an increase. The use of appropriations bills as vehicles for provisions prohibiting the automatic annual pay adjustments for Members developed by custom. A provision prohibiting an adjustment to Member pay could be offered to any bill, or be introduced as a separate bill. The maximum potential January 2020 Member pay adjustment of 2.6%, or $4,500, was known when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data for the change in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) during the 12-month period from December 2017 to December 2018 on January 31, 2019. Each year, the adjustment takes effect automatically unless it is either denied or modified statutorily by Congress, or limited by the General Schedule (GS) base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The maximum potential January 2019 Member pay adjustment of 2.3%, or $4,000, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2016 to December 2017 on January 31, 2018. Each year, the adjustment takes effect automatically unless it is either denied or modified statutorily by Congress, or limited by the GS base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The 2019 GS base pay adjustment was 1.4%, automatically limiting any Member pay adjustment to $2,400. The House-passed ( H.R. 5894 ) and Senate-reported versions ( S. 3071 ) of the FY2019 legislative branch appropriations bill both contained provisions to prevent this adjustment. The Member pay provision was included in the bills as introduced and no separate votes were held on this provision. Division B of P.L. 115-244 , enacted September 21, 2018, included the pay freeze provision. The maximum potential January 2018 member pay adjustment of 1.8%, or $3,100, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2015 to December 2016 on January 31, 2017. Each year, the adjustment takes effect automatically unless it is either denied or modified statutorily by Congress, or limited by the GS base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The 2018 GS base pay adjustment was 1.4%, automatically limiting any Member pay adjustment to $2,400. The House-passed ( H.R. 3162 ) and Senate-reported versions ( S. 1648 ) of the FY2018 legislative branch appropriations bill both contained provisions to prevent this adjustment. The Member pay provision was included in the bills as introduced and no separate votes were held on this provision. Neither bill was enacted prior to the start of FY2018, and legislative branch activities were initially funded through a series of continuing appropriations resolutions (CRs) ( P.L. 115-56 , through December 8, 2017; P.L. 115-90 , through December 22, 2017; P.L. 115-96 , through January 19, 2018; P.L. 115-120 , through February 8, 2018; P.L. 115-123 , through March 23, 2018). P.L. 115-56 contained a provision, extended in the subsequent CRs, continuing "section 175 of P.L. 114-223 , as amended by division A of P.L. 114-254 ." This provision prohibited a Member pay adjustment in FY2017. Section 7 of the FY2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act ( P.L. 115-141 ) prohibited the adjustment for the remainder of the year. The maximum potential January 2017 Member pay adjustment of 1.6%, or $2,800, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2014 to December 2015 on January 30, 2016. Both the House-passed ( H.R. 5325 ) and Senate-reported ( S. 2955 ) versions of the FY2017 legislative branch appropriations bill—which would provide approximately $4.4 billion in funding for the activities of the House of Representatives, Senate, and legislative branch support agencies —contained a provision that would prohibit this adjustment. The Member pay provision was included in the bills as introduced and no separate votes were held on this provision. No further action was taken on H.R. 5325 or S. 2955 , but the pay prohibition language was included in the Further Continuing and Security Assistance Appropriations Act, 2017 ( P.L. 114-254 ). Absent the statutory prohibition on a Member pay adjustment, Members of Congress would have automatically been limited to a 1.0% ($1,700) salary increase to match the increase in base salaries for GS employees. The maximum potential January 2016 Member pay adjustment of 1.7%, or $3,000, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2013 to December 2014 on January 30, 2015. The House-passed and Senate-reported versions of the FY2016 legislative branch appropriations bill ( H.R. 2250 ) both contained a provision prohibiting this adjustment. The pay adjustment prohibition was subsequently included in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 ( P.L. 114-113 ). Absent the statutory prohibition on a Member pay adjustment, Members of Congress would have automatically been limited to a 1.0% ($1,700) salary increase to match the increase in base salaries for GS employees. The maximum potential January 2015 pay adjustment of 1.6%, or $2,800, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2012 to December 2013 on January 31, 2014. Each year, the adjustment takes effect automatically unless it is either denied statutorily by Congress, or limited by the GS base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The FY2015 legislative branch appropriations bill ( H.R. 4487 ), as reported by the Committee on Appropriations and passed by the House on May 1, 2014, contained a provision prohibiting this adjustment. This provision was continued in the House-passed and Senate-reported versions of this bill, with no separate vote on the Member pay provision. No further action on this bill was taken, but the provision was subsequently included in Section 8 of Division Q of the FY2015 Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, which was enacted on December 16, 2014. On August 29, 2014, President Obama issued an "alternative pay plan for federal civilian employees," which called for a 1.0% increase in base salaries for General Schedule employees. Absent the statutory prohibition on a Member pay adjustment, Members of Congress would have automatically been limited to a 1.0% ($1,700) salary increase. The maximum potential 2014 pay adjustment of 1.2%, or $2,100, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2011 to December 2012 on January 31, 2013. The Continuing Appropriations Act, 2014 ( P.L. 113-46 , enacted October 17, 2013), however, prohibited the scheduled 2014 pay adjustment for Members of Congress. Each year, the adjustment takes effect automatically unless it is either denied statutorily by Congress, or limited by the GS base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The scheduled January 2014 across-the-board increase in the base pay of GS employees under the annual adjustment formula was 1.3%. A scheduled GS annual pay increase may be altered only if the President issues an alternative plan or if a different increase, or freeze, is enacted. The President issued an alternate pay plan for civilian federal employees on August 30, 2013. This plan called for a January 2014 across-the-board pay increase of 1.0% for federal civilian employees, the same percentage as proposed in the President's FY2014 budget. Legislation was not enacted to prohibit or alter the GS adjustment, and Executive Order 13655, issued on December 23, 2013, implemented a 1.0% increase for GS employees. Had the Member pay adjustment not been prohibited by law, the GS base pay adjustment would have automatically limited a salary adjustment for Members of Congress to 1.0% ($1,700). The maximum potential 2013 pay adjustment of 1.1%, or $1,900, was known when the BLS released data for the change in the ECI during the 12-month period from December 2010 to December 2011 on January 31, 2012. The adjustment takes effect automatically unless (1) denied statutorily by Congress or (2) limited by the GS base pay adjustment, since the percentage increase in Member pay is limited by law to the GS base pay percentage increase. The President's budget, submitted on February 13, 2012, proposed an average (i.e., base and locality) 0.5% adjustment for GS employees. President Obama later stated in a letter to congressional leadership on August 21, 2012, that the current federal pay freeze should extend until FY2013 budget negotiations are finalized. Section 114 of H.J.Res. 117 , the Continuing Appropriations Resolution, 2013, which was introduced on September 10, 2012, extended the freeze enacted by P.L. 111-322 through the duration of this continuing resolution. H.J.Res. 117 was passed by the House on September 13 and the Senate on September 22. It was signed by the President on September 28, 2012 ( P.L. 112-175 ). A delay in the implementation of pay adjustments for GS employees automatically delays any scheduled Member pay adjustment. On December 27, 2012, President Obama issued Executive Order 13635, which listed the rates of pay for various categories of officers and employees that would be effective after the expiration of the freeze extended by P.L. 112-175 . The executive order included a 0.5% increase for GS base pay, which automatically lowered the maximum potential Member pay adjustment from 1.1% to 0.5%. As in prior years, schedule 6 of the 2012 executive order listed the pay rate for Members of Congress for the upcoming year. This executive order indicated that an annual adjustment would take effect after the expiration of the freeze included in P.L. 112-175 . As stated above, the annual adjustments take effect automatically if legislation is not enacted preventing them. The executive order, however, by establishing the GS pay adjustment at a lower rate than the scheduled Member pay adjustment, automatically lowered the Member pay adjustment rate since by law Member pay adjustments cannot be higher than GS pay adjustments. Subsequently, a provision in H.R. 8 , the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which was enacted on January 2, 2013 ( P.L. 112-240 ), froze Member pay at the 2009 level for 2013. The language was included in S.Amdt. 3448 , a substitute amendment agreed to by unanimous consent. The bill, as amended, passed the Senate (89-8, vote #251) and the House (257-167, roll call #659) on January 1, 2013. This freeze was subsequently reflected in Executive Order 13641, which was signed April 5, 2013. This represented the second time, the first being in 2006, that Member pay was statutorily frozen for only a portion of the following year at the time of the issuance of the executive order. In both instances, the executive order listed new pay rates and indicated an effective date following the expiration of the statutory freeze. Pay adjustments in both years were further frozen pursuant to subsequent laws. As stated above, projected Member pay adjustments are calculated based on changes in the ECI. The projected 2011 adjustment of 0.9% was known when the BLS released data for the ECI change during the 12-month period from December 2008 to December 2009 on January 29, 2010. This adjustment would have equaled a $1,600 increase, resulting in a salary of $175,600. The 2011 pay adjustment was prohibited by the enactment of H.R. 5146 ( P.L. 111-165 ) on May 14, 2010. H.R. 5146 was introduced in the House on April 27 and was agreed to the same day (Roll no. 226). It was agreed to in the Senate the following day by unanimous consent. Other legislation was also introduced to prevent the scheduled 2011 pay adjustment. Additionally, P.L. 111-322 , which was enacted on December 22, 2010, prevents any adjustment in GS base pay before December 31, 2012. Since the percentage adjustment in Member pay may not exceed the percentage adjustment in the base pay of GS employees, Member pay is also frozen during this period. If not limited by GS pay, Members could have received a salary adjustment of 1.3% in January 2012 under the ECI formula. Pay for Members of Congress remained $174,000. Under the formula established in the Ethics Reform Act, Members were originally scheduled to receive a pay adjustment in January 2010 of 2.1%. This adjustment was denied by Congress through a provision included in the FY2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act. Section 103 of Division J of the act states, "Notwithstanding any provision of section 601(a)(2) of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1946 (2 U.S.C. 31(2)), the percentage adjustment scheduled to take effect under any such provision in calendar year 2010 shall not take effect." Had this provision not been enacted, the 2.1% projected adjustment would have been automatically reduced to 1.5% to match the 2010 GS base pay adjustment. As in previous Congresses, legislation was introduced in the 116 th Congress to repeal the automatic pay adjustment provision (for example, H.R. 751 and H.R. 1466 ); change the procedure by which pay for Members of Congress is adjusted or disbursed by linking it to congressional actions or economic indicators, including passage of a budget resolution, passage of appropriations, or reaching the debt limit (for example, S. 39 , S. 44 , S. 949 , H.R. 86 , H.R. 102 , H.R. 129 , H.R. 236 , H.R. 298 , H.R. 834 , H.R. 1172 , H.R. 1178 , H.R. 1466 , H.R. 1612 , H.J.Res. 10 , and H.J.Res. 51 ); and prohibit pay for Members of Congress during a lapse in appropriations resulting in a government shutdown (for example, S. 74 , S. 949 , H.R. 26 , H.R. 211 , H.R. 845 , and H.R. 1612 ). Legislation was introduced in the 115 th Congress to prohibit adjustments in pay (for example, H.R. 342 ); repeal the automatic pay adjustment provision (for example, H.R. 668 and H.R. 5946 ); change the procedure by which pay for Members of Congress is adjusted or disbursed by linking it to congressional actions or economic indicators, including passage of a budget resolution or reaching the debt limit (for example, H.R. 429 , H.R. 536 , H.R. 646 , H.R. 1779 , H.R. 1951 , H.R. 2153 , H.R. 2665 , H.R. 3675 , H.R. 4512 , and H.R. 5946 , and S. 14 ); reduce the pay of Members of Congress (for example, H.R. 1786 and H.R. 5539 ); and prohibit pay for Members of Congress during a lapse in appropriations resulting in a government shutdown (for example, H.R. 1789 , H.R. 1794 , H.R. 2214 , H.R. 4852 , H.R. 4870 , and S. 2327 ). Legislation was introduced in the 114 th Congress to prohibit adjustments in pay (for example, H.R. 109 and H.R. 302 ); repeal the automatic pay adjustment provision (for example, H.R. 179 , H.R. 513 , H.R. 688 , H.R. 1585 , and S. 17 ); change the procedure by which pay for Members of Congress is adjusted or disbursed by linking it to congressional actions or economic indicators, including the passage of a budget resolution or existence of a deficit (for example, H.Con.Res. 27 , S.Con.Res. 11 , H.R. 92 , H.R. 110 , H.R. 174 , H.R. 187 , H.R. 3757 , H.R. 4814 , H.R. 4476 , and S. 39 ); reduce the pay of Members of Congress (for example, H.R. 179 and H.R. 688 ); and prohibit or reduce pay for Members of Congress during a lapse in appropriations resulting in a government shutdown (for example, S. 2074 , H.R. 3562 , H.R. 2023 , and H.R. 1032 ). The House budget resolution for FY2016, H.Con.Res. 27 , included a policy statement that Congress should agree to a concurrent budget resolution each year by April 15, and if not, congressional salaries should be held in escrow (Section 819). The statement proposed that salaries would be released from the escrow account either when a chamber agrees to a concurrent resolution on the budget or the last day of the Congress, whichever is earlier. The House agreed to this resolution on March 25, 2015, and no further action was taken. The Senate agreed to its resolution on the FY2016 budget, S.Con.Res. 11 , on March 27, 2015, without this language. The conference report for S.Con.Res. 11 —agreed to in the House on April 30 and in the Senate on May 5, 2015—contains a "Policy Statement on 'No Budget, No Pay'" (Section 6216), which refers to actions by the House. Legislation was introduced in the 113 th Congress to prohibit adjustments in pay (for example, H.R. 54 , H.R. 243 , H.R. 636 , S. 18 , S. 30 ); repeal the automatic pay adjustment provision (for example, H.R. 134 , H.R. 150 , H.R. 196 , S. 65 , and H.R. 398 ); change the procedure by which pay for Members of Congress is adjusted or disbursed by linking it to congressional actions or economic indicators, including passage of a budget resolution or reaching the debt limit (for example, H.R. 108 , H.R. 167 , H.R. 284 , H.R. 308 , H.R. 310 , H.R. 325 , H.R. 372 , H.R. 397 , H.R. 396 , H.R. 522 , H.R. 593 , H.R. 1884 , H.R. 2335 , H.R. 3234 , S. 18 , S. 30 , and S. 263 ); reduce the pay of Members of Congress (for example, H.R. 37 , H.R. 150 , H.R. 391 , H.R. 396 , H.R. 398 , and H.R. 1467 ); prohibit pay for Members of Congress during a lapse in appropriations resulting in a government shutdown (for example, H.R. 3160 , H.R. 3215 , H.R. 3224 , H.R. 3234 , and H.R. 3236 ); and apply any sequester to Member pay (for example, S. 436 , H.R. 1181 , H.R. 1478 , and H.R. 2677 ). H.R. 325 , which (1) included language holding congressional salaries in escrow if a concurrent resolution on the budget was not agreed to by April 15, 2013, and (2) provided for a temporary extension of the debt ceiling through May 18, 2013, was introduced on January 21, 2013. Salaries would have been held in escrow for Members in a chamber if that chamber had not agreed to a concurrent resolution by that date. Salaries would have been released from the escrow account either when that chamber agreed to a concurrent resolution on the budget or the last day of the 113 th Congress, whichever was earlier. H.R. 325 was agreed to in the House on January 23, 2013, and the Senate on January 31, 2013. It was enacted on February 4, 2013 ( P.L. 113-3 ). Both the House and Senate agreed to a budget resolution prior to that date, however, and salaries were not held in escrow. H.R. 807 , the Full Faith and Credit Act, was introduced in the House on February 25, 2013. The bill would have prioritized certain payments in the event the debt reaches the statutory limit. An amendment, H.Amdt. 61 , was offered on May 9, 2013, that would clarify that these obligations would not include compensation for Members of Congress. It was agreed to the same day. The bill passed the House on May 13, 2013. No further action was taken in the 113 th Congress. The House-passed version of H.J.Res. 59 , the Continuing Appropriations Resolution, 2014, also contained a provision addressing actions by the Secretary of the Treasury in the event that the debt limit is reached and not raised. The provision (Section 138) would, in part, prohibit borrowing to provide pay for Members of Congress in the event that the debt reaches the statutory limit prior to December 15, 2014. The bill passed the House on September 20, 2013. It was enacted on December 26, 2013, without this section. Legislation was introduced in the 112 th Congress to repeal the automatic pay adjustment provision (for example, S. 133 , S. 148 , H.R. 187 , H.R. 235 , H.R. 246 , H.R. 343 , H.R. 431 , H.R. 3673 ); change the procedure by which pay for Members of Congress is adjusted or disbursed by linking it to other action or economic indicators (for example, H.R. 124 , H.R. 172 , H.R. 236 , H.R. 994 , H.R. 1454 , H.R. 3136 , H.R. 3565 , H.R. 3774 , H.R. 3799 , H.R. 3883 , H.R. 4036 , H.R. 6438 , S. 1442 ); reduce the pay of Members of Congress (for example, H.R. 204 , H.R. 270 , H.R. 335 , H.R. 1012 , H.R. 4399 ); otherwise alter or restrict pay for Members under certain conditions (for example, H.R. 6108 ); and freeze Member pay (for example, S. 1931 , S. 1936 , S. 2065 , S. 2079 , S. 2210 , H.R. 3858 , H.R. 6474 , H.R. 6720 , H.R. 6721 , H.R. 6722 ). Legislation was also introduced in the 112 th Congress that would have affected Member pay in the event of a lapse of appropriations resulting in a government shutdown. These included H.R. 819 , H.R. 1255 , H.R. 1305 , H.Con.Res. 56 , and S. 388 . The Senate passed S. 388 on March 1, 2011. The bill would have prohibited Members of the House and Senate from receiving pay, including retroactive pay, for each day that there is a lapse in appropriations or the federal government is unable to make payments or meet obligations because of the public debt limit. The House passed H.R. 1255 on April 1, 2011. The bill would have prohibited the disbursement of pay to Members of the House and Senate during either of these situations. No further action was taken on either bill. On April 8, 2011, the Speaker of the House issued a "Dear Colleague" letter indicating that in the event of a shutdown, Members of Congress would continue to be paid pursuant to the Twenty-Seventh Amendment to the Constitution, which as stated above, states: "No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of Representatives shall have intervened"—although Members could elect to return any compensation to the Treasury. Additional legislation to prohibit any Member pay adjustment in 2013 was introduced but not enacted in the 112 th Congress, including the following: Section 5421(b)(1) of H.R. 3630 , as introduced in the House, would have prohibited any adjustment for Members of Congress prior to December 31, 2013. Section 706 of the motion to recommit also contained language freezing Member pay. On December 13, 2011, the motion to recommit failed (183-244, roll call #922), and the bill passed the House (234-193, roll call #923). The House-passed version of the bill was titled the "Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2011." The Senate substitute amendment, which did not address pay adjustments, passed on December 17. It was titled the "Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011." The bill was enacted on February 22, 2012 ( P.L. 112-96 ), without the pay freeze language. H.R. 3835 , introduced on January 27, 2012, also would have extended the pay freeze for federal employees, including Members of Congress, to December 31, 2013. This bill passed the House on February 1, 2012. H.R. 6726 , introduced on January 1, 2013, would have extended the pay freeze for federal employees, including Members of Congress, to December 31, 2013. This bill passed the House on January 2, 2013. Table 1 provides a history of the salaries of Members of Congress since 1789. For each salary rate, both the effective date and the statutory authority are provided. Table 2 provides information on pay adjustments for Members since 1992, which was the first full year after the Ethics Reform Act that Representatives and Senators received the same salary. The table provides the projected percentage changes under the formula based on the Employment Cost Index and the actual percentage adjustment. The differences between the projected and actual Member pay adjustments resulted from the enactment of legislation preventing the increase (adjustments for 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019); limits on the percentage increase of Member pay because of the percentage increase in GS base pay (adjustments for 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019); and a combination of the above. In some years, the percentage adjustment for Member pay would have been lowered to match the percentage adjustment in GS base pay if Congress had not passed legislation denying the adjustment (adjustments for 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019). If Members of Congress had received every adjustment prescribed by the ECI formula since 1992, and the 2 U.S.C. §4501 limitation regarding the percentage base pay increase for GS employees remained unchanged, the 2019 salary would be $210,900. Table 3 lists the laws which have previously delayed or prohibited Member pay adjustments, the dates these laws were enacted, and the text of the provision. While many of the bills in this list are appropriations bills, a prohibition on Member pay adjustments could be included in any bill, or be introduced as a separate bill. Figure 1 , which follows, shows the salary of Members of Congress in current and constant (inflation adjusted) dollars since 1992. It shows that Member salaries, when adjusted for inflation, decreased 15% from 2009 until 2019.

Question: Write a one-page summary of the report 1.

Answer: In October 2017, the Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced that the projected life-cycle cost of the 2020 Census had climbed to $15.6 billion, a more than $3 billion (27 percent) increase over its 2015 estimate. A high-quality, reliable cost estimate is a key tool for budgeting, planning, and managing the 2020 Census. Without this capability, the Bureau is at risk of experiencing program cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls. GAO was asked to evaluate the reliability of the Bureau's life-cycle cost estimate. This report evaluates the reliability of the Bureau's revised life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census and the extent to which the Bureau is using it as a management tool, and compares the 2015 and 2017 cost estimates to describe key drivers of cost growth. GAO reviewed documentary and testimonial evidence from Bureau officials responsible for developing the 2020 Census cost estimate and used its cost assessment guide ( GAO-09-3SP ) as criteria. Since 2015, the Census Bureau (Bureau) has made significant progress in improving its ability to develop a reliable cost estimate. While improvements have been made, the Bureau's October 2017 cost estimate for the 2020 Census does not fully reflect all the characteristics of a reliable estimate. (See figure.) Specifically, for the characteristic of being well-documented, GAO found that some of the source data either did not support the information described in the cost estimate or was not in the files provided for two of its largest field operations. In GAO's assessment of the 2015 version of the 2020 Census cost estimate, GAO recommended that the Bureau take steps to ensure that each of the characteristics of a reliable cost estimate is met. The Bureau agreed and has taken steps, but has not fully implemented this recommendation. A reliable cost estimate serves as a tool for program development and oversight, helping management make informed decisions. During this review, GAO found the Bureau used the cost estimate to inform decision making. Factors that contributed to cost fluctuations between the 2015 and 2017 cost estimates include: Changes in assumptions. Among other changes, a decrease in the assumed rate for self-response from 63.5 percent in 2015 to 60.5 percent in 2017 increased the cost of collecting responses from nonresponding housing units. Improved ability to anticipate and quantify risk. In general, contingency allocations designed to address the effects of potential risks increased overall from $1.3 billion in 2015 to $2.6 billion in 2017. An overall increase in information technology (IT) costs. IT cost increases, totaling $1.59 billion, represented almost 50 percent of the total cost increase from 2015 to 2017. GAO is not making any new recommendations but maintains its earlier recommendation—that the Secretary of Commerce direct the Bureau to take specific steps to ensure its cost estimate meets the characteristics of a high-quality estimate. In its response to this report, Commerce generally agreed with the findings related to cost estimation improvements, but disagreed that the cost estimate was not reliable. However, until GAO's recommendation is fully implemented the cost estimate cannot be considered reliable.