prompt_front: You are given two reports by the government agency.



Question: Write a one-page summary of the report 1.

Report 1: T he Congressional Review Act (CRA) allows Congress to review certain types of federal agency actions that fall under the statutory category of "rules " Enacted in 1996 as part of the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act, the CRA requires agencies to report the issuance of "rules" to Congress and provides Congress with special procedures under which to consider legislation to overturn those rules  A joint resolution of disapproval will become effective once both houses of Congress pass a joint resolution and it is signed by the President, or if Congress overrides the President's veto  For an agency's action to be eligible for review under the CRA, it must qualify as a "rule" as defined by the statute  The class of rules covered by the CRA is broader than the category of rules that are subject to the Administrative Procedure Act's (APA's) notice-and-comment requirements  As such, some agency actions, such as guidance documents, that are not subject to notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures may still be considered rules under the CRA and thus could be overturned using the CRA's procedures  The 115 th Congress used the CRA to pass, for the first time, a resolution of disapproval overturning an agency guidance document that had not been promulgated through notice-and-comment procedures  The resolution was signed into law by the President on May 21, 2018  In all of the previous instances in which the CRA was used to overturn agency actions, the disapproved actions were regulations that had been adopted through APA rulemaking processes  Congress's use of the CRA in this instance raised questions about the scope of the CRA and Congress's ability to use the CRA to overturn agency actions that were not promulgated through APA notice-and-comment procedures  Under the CRA, the expedited procedures for considering legislation to overturn rules become available only when agencies submit their rules to Congress  In many cases in which agencies take actions that meet the legal definition of a "rule" but have not gone through notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures, however, agencies fail to submit those rules  Thus, questions have arisen as to how Members can use the CRA's procedures to overturn agency actions when an agency does not submit the action to Congress  This report first describes what types of agency actions can be overturned using the CRA by providing a close examination and discussion of the statutory definition of "rule " The report then explains how Members can use the CRA to overturn agency rules that have not been submitted to Congress  Under the CRA, before a rule can take effect, an agency must submit to both houses of Congress and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) a report containing a copy of the rule and information on the rule, including a summary of the rule, a designation of whether the rule is "major," and the proposed effective date of the rule  For most rules determined to be "major," the agency must allow for an additional period to elapse before the rule can take effect—primarily to give Congress additional time to consider taking action on the most economically impactful rules—and GAO must write a report on each major rule to the House and Senate committees of jurisdiction within 15 days  The report is to contain GAO's assessment of the agency's compliance with various procedural steps in the rulemaking process  After a rule is received by Congress, Members have the opportunity to use expedited procedures to overturn the rule  A Member must submit the resolution of disapproval and Congress must take action on it within certain time periods specified in the CRA to take advantage of the expedited procedures, which exist primarily in the Senate  Those expedited, or "fast track," procedures include the following: a Senate committee can be discharged from the further consideration of a CRA joint resolution disapproving the rule by a petition signed by at least 30 Senators; any Senator may make a nondebatable motion to proceed to consider the disapproval resolution, and the motion to proceed requires a simple majority for adoption; and if the motion to proceed is successful, the CRA disapproval resolution would be subject to up to 10 hours of debate, and then voted upon  No amendments are permitted and the disapproval resolution requires a simple majority to pass  If both houses pass the joint resolution, it is sent to the President for signature or veto  If the President were to veto the resolution, Congress could vote to override the veto under normal veto override procedures  If a joint resolution of disapproval is submitted and acted upon within the CRA-specified deadlines and signed by the President (or if Congress overrides the President's veto), the CRA states that the "rule shall not take effect (or continue) " In other words, if part or all of the rule had already taken effect, the rule would be deemed not to have had any effect at any time  If a rule is disapproved, the status quo that was in place prior to the issuance of the rule would be reinstated  In addition, when a joint resolution of disapproval is enacted, the CRA provides that a rule may not be issued in "substantially the same form" as the disapproved rule unless it is specifically authorized by a subsequent law  The CRA does not define what would constitute a rule that is "substantially the same" as a nullified rule  The CRA governs "rules" promulgated by a "federal agency," using the definition of "agency" provided in the APA  That APA definition broadly defines an agency as "each authority of the Government of the United States,     but does not include     Congress;     the courts of the United States;     courts martial and military commissions " Accordingly, the CRA generally covers rules issued by most executive branch entities  In the context of the APA, however, courts have held that this definition excludes actions of the President  The more difficult interpretive issue is what types of agency actions should be considered "rules" under the CRA  The CRA adopts a broad definition of the word "rule" from the APA, but then creates three exceptions to that definition  This APA definition of "rule" encompasses a wide range of agency action, including certain agency statements that are not subject to the notice-and-comment rulemaking requirements outlined elsewhere in the APA: "[R]ule" means the whole or a part of an agency statement of general or particular applicability and future effect designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy or describing the organization, procedure, or practice requirements of an agency and includes the approval or prescription for the future of rates, wages, corporate or financial structures or reorganizations thereof, prices, facilities, appliances, services or allowances therefor or of valuations, costs, or accounting, or practices bearing on any of the foregoing[ ] The CRA narrows this definition by providing that the term "rule" does not include (A) any rule of particular applicability, including a rule that approves or prescribes for the future rates, wages, prices, services, or allowances therefor, corporate or financial structures, reorganizations, mergers, or acquisitions thereof, or accounting practices or disclosures bearing on any of the foregoing; (B) any rule relating to agency management or personnel; or (C) any rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties  Determining whether any particular agency action is a rule subject to the CRA therefore entails a two-part inquiry: first, asking whether the statement qualifies as a rule under the APA definition and, second, asking whether the statement falls within any of the exceptions noted above to the CRA's definition of rule  These two steps are illustrated below in Figure 1   This section of the report walks through the two elements of this inquiry in more detail  First, while the APA's definition of "rule" is expansive, courts have held that "Congress did not intend that the     definition     be construed so broadly that every agency action" should be encompassed under this provision  As a preliminary matter, courts have distinguished agency rulemaking actions from adjudicatory and investigatory functions  And under the statutory text, to qualify as a rule, an agency statement must meet three requirements: it must be "of general     applicability," have "future effect," and be "designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy " Second, even if an agency statement does qualify as an APA "rule," the CRA expressly exempts three categories of rules from its provisions: rules "of particular applicability," rules "relating to agency management or personnel," and "any rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties " Both inquiries are heavily fact specific, and require looking beyond a document's label to the substance of the agency's action  The CRA defines the word "rule" by incorporating in part the APA's definition of that term  Although there is very little case law interpreting the meaning of "rule" under the CRA, cases interpreting the APA's definition of "rule" may provide persuasive authority for interpreting the CRA because the CRA explicitly relies on that provision as the basis for its own definition of the term "rule " The APA provides a general framework governing most agency action—not only agency rulemaking, but also administrative adjudications  The APA accordingly distinguishes different types of agency actions, separating rules from orders and investigatory acts  These distinctions may also be relevant when deciding whether an agency action is a rule subject to the CRA  The APA distinguishes a "rule" from an "order," defining an "order" as "the whole or a part of a final disposition, whether affirmative, negative, injunctive, or declaratory in form, of an agency in a matter other than rule making but including licensing " Orders are the product of agency adjudication, in contrast to rules, which result from rulemaking  To determine whether an agency action is a rule or an order in the context of the APA, courts look beyond the document's label to the substance of the action  One federal court of appeals described the distinction between rulemaking and adjudication as follows: First, adjudications resolve disputes among specific individuals in specific cases, whereas rulemaking affects the rights of broad classes of unspecified individuals     Second, because adjudications involve concrete disputes, they have an immediate effect on specific individuals (those involved in the dispute)  Rulemaking, in contrast, is prospective, and has a definitive effect on individuals only after the rule subsequently is applied  Courts have also distinguished rules from agency investigations  A separate provision of the APA addresses an agency's authority to compel the submission of information and perform "investigative act[s] or demand[s] " When agencies conduct investigative actions such as requiring regulated parties to submit informational reports, courts have held that they are not subject to the APA's rulemaking requirements  However, courts have also noted that some actions related to investigations may qualify as rules  For instance, in one case, a federal court of appeals observed that the procedures governing an agency's decision to investigate "are separate from and precede the agency's ultimate act," concluding that the procedures at issue constituted a rule  An agency statement will qualify as a "rule" under the APA definition if it (1) is "of general or particular applicability," (2) has "future effect," and (3) is "designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy " With regard to the first requirement, as the U S  Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (D C  Circuit) has noted, most agency statements will be "of general or particular applicability" and will fulfill this condition  The second requirement—that a rule be "of     future effect" —is the subject of some ambiguity  Courts have largely agreed that this requirement is likely intended to distinguish agency rulemaking from agency adjudication  Courts often differentiate rules and orders by noting that orders are retrospective, while rules have "future effect " Rules operate prospectively, in the sense that they are intended to "inform the future conduct" of those subject to the rules  Additionally, courts have sometimes said that the "future effect" requirement excludes any agency statements that do not "bind the agency " Thus, for example, in a concurring opinion in a 1988 Supreme Court case, Justice Scalia suggested that the "future effect" requirement must be read to mean "that rules have legal consequences only for the future " He argued that the only way to distinguish rules from orders—which can have both future and past legal consequences—was to define rules as having only prospective operation  Judge Silberman of the D C  Circuit, concurring in an opinion from that court, drew on Justice Scalia's interpretation of this requirement to argue that it would be unreasonable to conclude that every single agency statement with future effect is a rule under the APA  Instead, he argued that only agency statements that "seek to authoritatively answer an underlying policy or legal issue" should be considered rules  These opinions raise several unanswered questions, which could suggest some hesitation before reading the phrase "future effect" in the APA definition of a rule to mean "binding " First, these cases do not fully explain what it means for an agency statement to be binding or address the case law suggesting that the term "future effect" merely pertains to the prospective nature of the statement  Second, and perhaps more critical, this case law reading "future effect" to mean that APA "rules" must bind the agency does not explain how to distinguish this requirement from the separate inquiry into whether an agency action is subject to notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures  As discussed in more detail below, some (but not all) APA "rules" must go through procedures commonly known as notice-and-comment rulemaking  To distinguish so-called "legislative" rules that are subject to notice-and-comment procedures from "interpretive" rules, which are not, courts generally ask whether the rule has "the force of law" —or stated another way, whether the rule is "legally binding " Arguably, then, this "legal effect" test for notice-and-comment rulemaking may be equivalent to asking whether a rule binds an agency  However, the "future effect" inquiry tests whether an agency action is a "rule" under 5 U S C  §551(4), and the "legal effect" inquiry tests whether such a rule is subject to the notice-and-comment procedures outlined in 5 U S C  §553  Because the tests are tied to two distinct statutory provisions, they arguably should not both turn on whether a rule is legally binding  This is especially true where courts have generally held that interpretive rules may not be subject to notice-and-comment but are nonetheless "rules" within the meaning of the APA  The fact that Congress expressly exempted "interpretative rules" from the rulemaking procedures applicable to "rules" may itself suggest that such agency actions are rules—otherwise, the exemption would be unnecessary  The third requirement for an agency action to be considered an APA rule is that it must be "designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy " The D C  Circuit has held that agency documents that merely state an "established interpretation" and "tread no new ground" do not "implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy" and therefore are not rules  Similarly, an agency statement is not a rule if it "does not change any law or official policy presently in effect " Thus, courts have concluded that "educational" documents that merely "reprint[]" or "restate" existing law are not rules under the APA  The D C  Circuit has also held that an agency's budget request is not a rule  The APA outlines specific rulemaking procedures that agencies must follow when they formulate, amend, or repeal a rule  The APA generally requires publication in the Federal Register and institutes procedural requirements that are often referred to as notice-and-comment rulemaking  Under notice-and-comment rulemaking, agencies must notify the public of a proposed rule and then provide a meaningful opportunity for public comment on that rule  However, not all agency acts that qualify as "rules" under the APA definition are required to comply with the APA's rulemaking procedures  In particular, the APA provides that notice and comment is not required for "interpretative rules, general statements of policy, or rules of agency organization, procedure, or practice " Additionally, the APA's rulemaking procedures do not, in relevant part, apply to "matter[s] relating to agency management or personnel " Therefore, agency statements such as guidance documents or procedural rules may not be required to undergo notice-and-comment rulemaking, but may still be APA "rules " Courts frequently hold that agency's guidance documents are exempt from APA notice-and-comment rulemaking requirements because those documents are properly classified either as interpretative rules or as general policy statements  Interpretive rules merely explain or clarify preexisting legal obligations without themselves "purport[ing] to impose new obligations or prohibitions," while general policy statements simply describe how an agency "will exercise its broad enforcement discretion" without binding the agency  But as mentioned above, the critical factor distinguishing both interpretive rules and general policy statements from "legislative" rules that must be promulgated through notice-and-comment procedures is "whether the agency action binds private parties or the agency itself with the 'force of law,'" or whether the rule "has legal effect " General policy statements ordinarily are not legally binding, and accordingly are not "substantive" rules required to undergo notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures  It should be noted that some cases from the D C  Circuit have suggested that general policy statements are not "rules" at all under the APA definition  For example, in one case, the D C  Circuit said that the "primary distinction between a substantive rule—really any rule—and a general statement of policy, then, turns on whether an agency intends to bind itself to a particular legal position " As discussed above, courts have also sometimes held that where an agency statement does not "bind" an agency, it has no "future effect" and therefore cannot qualify as an APA "rule " This "binding effect" requirement has clear parallels to these cases holding that general policy statements are not rules because they do not bind the agency  However, these latter decisions do not explicitly ground this characterization of general policy statements in the text of the APA requiring rules to have "future effect " Accordingly, it is not clear how these two inquiries interrelate  Other cases have characterized general policy statements as APA rules, notwithstanding the fact that such a statement may not be legally binding in a future administrative proceeding  The CRA incorporates the APA definition of "rule" by reference, and, consequently, should likely be read to incorporate judicial constructions of that definition  Thus, for example, although the CRA does not itself reference agency "orders," some courts have nonetheless imported the APA's distinction between rules and orders when interpreting the CRA  Accordingly, if an agency acts through an order or investigatory act, rather than a rule, the requirements of the CRA likely will not apply  In recent years, some commentators have discussed using the CRA to revoke agencies' guidance documents, raising the question of which guidance documents qualify as CRA "rules " As a preliminary matter, it is important to note that "guidance document" is not a defined term under either the CRA or the APA  Even if an agency has characterized a statement as a guidance document rather than a rule, it still may qualify as a "rule" under the CRA  Instead, the relevant question is whether any agency statement labeled as guidance—which could include, for example, actions such as memoranda, letters, or agency bulletins—falls within the statutory definition of "rule" and, if so, whether it is nonetheless exempt from the CRA under any of the exceptions to that definition  As discussed above, agency statements labeled as guidance are frequently exempt from the APA's notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures because they fall within the exceptions for interpretive rules or general policy statements  However, while the CRA adopts the APA's definition of rule, the CRA's exceptions to that definition are not identical to the APA's exemptions from its notice-and-comment procedures  Notably, the CRA does not exclude from its definition of rule either general policy statements or interpretative rules  Instead, the category of agency "rules" subject to the requirements of the CRA appears to encompass most "rules" that must go through the APA's notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures, along with some that do not  Consequently, agency guidance documents that are exempt from the APA's notice-and-comment procedural requirements may nonetheless be subject to the CRA, if they do not fall within one of the CRA's exceptions  But the effect of a disapproval resolution in such a case may be limited because such guidance documents generally lack legal effect in the first place  The post-enactment legislative history of the CRA indicates that the CRA was intended to encompass some agency statements that would not be subject to the APA's notice-and-comment rulemaking requirements  Following the enactment of the CRA in 1996, the law's sponsors inserted into the Congressional Record a statement in which they asserted that the law would cover a wide swath of agency actions: The committees intend this chapter to be interpreted broadly with regard to the type and scope of rules that are subject to congressional review  The term "rule" in subsection 804(3) begins with the definition of a "rule" in subsection 551(4) and excludes three subsets of rules that are modeled on APA sections 551 and 553  This definition of a rule does not turn on whether a given agency must normally comply with the notice-and-comment provisions of the APA     The definition of "rule" in subsection 551(4) covers a wide spectrum of activities  This statement suggests that Congress intended the CRA to reach a broad range of agency activities, including agency policy statements, interpretive rules, and certain rules of agency organization, despite the fact that those actions are not subject to the APA's requirements for notice and comment  However, as discussed above, there is some ambiguity regarding whether certain non-binding statements are rules at all  If general policy statements or other non-binding agency actions are not "rules" under the APA definition, then arguably, they are not rules under the CRA  But importantly, GAO has concluded that general policy statements should be considered "rules" under the CRA  As discussed in more detail below, GAO's resolution of this issue may stand as the last word on the matter, given the role that GAO has come to play in advising Congress on which agency actions are subject to the CRA  Even if an agency action is a "rule" within the APA definition, it will not be subject to the CRA if it falls within one of the three exceptions to the CRA's definition of a "rule " The CRA incorporates the APA definition of rule, but exempts from that definition any rules "of particular applicability," rules "relating to agency management or personnel," and "any rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties " Some of these exemptions track language in the APA, and accordingly, cases interpreting those APA provisions may be useful to interpret the CRA exceptions  Additionally, the CRA does not "apply to rules that concern monetary policy proposed or implemented by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee " The CRA also contains a partial exception for rules where an agency has, "for good cause," dispensed with notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures, as well as for rules related to "a regulatory program for a commercial, recreational, or subsistence activity related to hunting, fishing, or camping  " However, this section does not exempt rules from the CRA procedures entirely; it merely allows the agency to determine when the rule shall take effect, notwithstanding the CRA's requirements  While the APA's definition of "rule" includes agency statements "of general or particular applicability," the CRA expressly exempts "any rule of particular applicability " Courts have said that this language refers to "legislative-type promulgations" that are "directed to" specifically named parties  In opinions from GAO analyzing whether various agency actions fall within the particular-applicability exception, GAO has stated that to be generally applicable, the CRA does not require a rule to "generally apply to the population as a whole " Instead, "all that is required is a finding" that a rule "has general applicability within its intended range, regardless of the magnitude of that range " For example, in one case, GAO concluded that an agency decision adopting and implementing a plan to counter decreased river flows in a certain river basin was not a matter of particular applicability  Although the decision applied to a specific geographic area, it would, in the view of GAO, nonetheless "have significant economic and environmental impact throughout several major watersheds in the nation's largest state " The CRA gives examples of some types of rules of particular applicability by specifying that this exemption includes any "rule that approves or prescribes for the future rates, wages, prices, services, or allowances therefor, corporate or financial structures, reorganizations, mergers, or acquisitions thereof, or accounting practices or disclosures bearing on any of the foregoing " Moreover, the post-enactment statement for the record written by the CRA's sponsors maintained that "IRS private letter rulings and Customs Service letter rulings are classic examples of rules of particular applicability " Under the APA, courts have also held, for example, that agency actions designating specific sites as covered by environmental laws are rules of "particular applicability " The second CRA exemption excludes "any rule relating to agency management or personnel " The APA contains a similar exemption from its general rulemaking requirements  Within the context of the APA, courts have concluded that this exemption covers agency statements such as policies for hiring employees  A rule will not fall within this exemption solely because it is "directed at government personnel " Instead, courts have viewed this APA exception to cover internal matters that do not substantially affect parties outside an agency  Notwithstanding the general presumption of courts that where Congress adopts language from another statute, it also intends to incorporate any settled judicial interpretations of that same language, it is unclear whether this substantial-effect requirement developed by courts in the context of the APA should be read into the CRA  The CRA's second exemption, for "any rule relating to agency management or personnel," does not expressly mention a rule's effect on third parties  By contrast, the CRA's third exemption does  This distinction in language could be read to mean that Congress intentionally chose to create a substantial-effect requirement for the third exception while omitting this limitation from the second one, so that the CRA's second exception excludes "any rule relating to agency management or personnel" regardless of its impact on third parties  On this view, this difference in phrasing would displace the ordinary presumption that Congress incorporates case law interpreting similar statutory provisions  This interpretation of the second exemption could mean that the CRA's exception for rules relating to agency management or personnel may be interpreted more broadly than the APA exception  However, it is also possible that Congress chose not to include the substantial-effect requirement in this second exception because "prior judicial interpretation" of the identical phrases in the APA made such language unnecessary  Congress may have added a substantial-effect requirement to the third exception in order to settle some ambiguity in the cases interpreting the parallel provision of the APA, as described below  Finally, the CRA exempts "any rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties " The APA also excludes "rules of agency organization, procedure, or practice" from notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures  Courts have held that this APA exception includes actions like agency decisions relating to how regulated entities must go about satisfying investigative requirements  Unlike the CRA, the APA does not explicitly limit this exception to those rules that do not "substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties " Nonetheless, because courts have read such a limitation into the APA exemption, the case law defining this requirement may be relevant to determine the scope of this CRA exemption  However, in the cases interpreting this parallel APA exclusion, the impact of a rule on a third party is not the only factor courts use to distinguish between substantive rules, which are required to go through notice-and-comment procedures, and procedural rules, which are not  Instead, courts have engaged in two kinds of inquiries  The first is the "substantial impact test," which asks whether the agency action substantially impacts the regulated industry  However, the D C  Circuit has noted that even rules best characterized as procedural measures may have a significant effect on regulated parties, and, accordingly, has held that "a rule with a 'substantial impact' upon the persons subject to it is not necessarily a substantive rule " Consequently, the D C  Circuit has also asked whether the rule "encodes a substantive value judgment " Nonetheless, because the text of the CRA expressly excludes rules "of agency organization, procedure, or practice" that do not "substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties," the CRA appears to mandate the use of something akin to the substantial impact test to determine whether a rule falls within this exception  In fact, one of the sponsors of the CRA emphasized prior to its passage that to determine whether a rule should be excluded under this provision, "the focus     is not on the type of rule but on its effect on the rights or obligations of nonagency parties " He went on to say that the exclusion covered only rules "with a truly minor, incidental effect on nonagency parties " GAO has sometimes drawn on the APA case law described above in its own opinions analyzing whether various actions fall within the purview of the CRA  However, because the substantial-impact test and the substantive-value-judgment test were developed in the context of the APA to test whether rules "implicate the policy interests animating notice-and-comment rulemaking," these judicially created tests might not be directly applicable to determine whether an agency statement is subject to the CRA  The CRA requires that agencies submit actions that fall within the CRA's definition of a rule to both houses of Congress and to GAO before the actions may take effect  Thus, the submission requirement applies generally to rules that are promulgated through APA notice-and-comment procedures, as well as to other types of agency statements, as discussed above  Specifically, Section 801(a)(1)(A) of the CRA requires the agency to submit a report containing a copy of the rule to each house of Congress and the Comptroller General; a concise general statement relating to the rule, including whether it is a major rule; and the proposed effective date of the rule  The agency is also required to submit additional information pertaining to any cost-benefit analysis the agency conducted, along with information on the agency's actions resulting from other regulatory impact analysis requirements, including the Regulatory Flexibility Act and the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act  For major rules, after receiving this information, GAO is then required to assess the agency's compliance with these additional informational requirements and include its assessment in the major rule report  The report is required to be submitted to the House and Senate committees of jurisdiction within 15 calendar days of the submission of the rule or its publication in the Federal Register , whichever date is later  The "report" that agencies are required to submit along with the rule, in practice, is a two-page form on which they provide the information required under Section 801(a)(1)(A) and, for major rules, most of the information required to be included in GAO's major rule report  In FY1999 appropriations legislation, Congress required the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to provide agencies with a standard form to use to meet this reporting requirement  OMB issued the form in March 1999 as part of a larger guidance to agencies on compliance with the CRA  A copy of the form is provided in Appendix A of this report  When final rules are submitted to Congress, notice of each chamber's receipt and referral appears in the respective House and Senate sections of the daily Congressional Record devoted to "Executive Communications " Notice of each chamber's receipt is also entered into a database that can be searched using Congress gov  When the rule is submitted to GAO, a record of its receipt at GAO is noted in a database on GAO's website as well  Once the rule is received in Congress and published in the Federal Register , the time periods during which the CRA's expedited procedures are available begin, and Members can use the procedures to consider a resolution of disapproval  Thus, submission of rules to Congress under the CRA is critical because the receipt of the rule in Congress triggers the CRA's expedited procedures for introduction and consideration of a joint resolution disapproving the rule  In other words, if an agency fails to submit a rule to Congress, the House and Senate are unable to avail themselves of the special "fast track" procedures to consider a joint resolution striking down the rule  Following enactment of the CRA in 1996, some Members of Congress and others raised concerns over agencies not submitting their rules on several occasions  At a hearing on the CRA in 1997, one year after its enactment, witnesses noted that agencies were not in full compliance with the submission requirement  It was also noted at the hearing, however, that it appeared agencies were seeking "in good faith" to comply with the statute  At a hearing in 1998 on implementation of the CRA, GAO's general counsel testified that agencies were often not sending their rules to GAO or Congress  Also in 1998, to further improve agency compliance with the CRA, Congress required OMB to issue guidance on certain provisions of the CRA, specifically including the submission requirement in 5 U S C  §801(a)(1)  To meet this requirement, then-OMB Director Jacob J  Lew issued a memorandum for agencies in March 1999  The Lew memorandum provided information such as where agencies should send their rules in the House and Senate, including the addresses of the Office of the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House, the offices in each chamber that receive the rules; what information the agencies should include with the rule; and an explanation of what types of rules are required to be submitted  Because agencies were initially inconsistent about fulfilling the submission requirement, GAO began to monitor agencies' compliance with the submission requirement by comparing the final rules that were published in the Federal Register with rules that were submitted to GAO  This was not a role that was required under the CRA; rather, GAO conducted these reviews voluntarily  As then-GAO general counsel Robert Murphy testified in 1998, GAO conducted a review to determine whether all final rules covered by the Congressional Review Act and published in the Register were filed with the Congress and the GAO  We performed this review both to verify the accuracy of our own data base and to ascertain the degree of agency compliance with the statute  We were concerned that regulated entities may have been led to believe that rules published in the Federal Register were effective, when, in fact, they were not unless filed in accordance with the statute  After its review of agency compliance with the submission requirement, in November 1997, GAO submitted to OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) a list of the rules that had been published in the Federal Register but had not been submitted to GAO  According to GAO, OIRA distributed this list to affected agencies; GAO then followed up again with the agencies that had rules that remained un-submitted in February 1998  GAO stated in its March 1998 testimony that "In our view, OIRA should have played a more proactive role in assuring that the agencies were both aware of the statutory filing requirements and were complying with them " GAO continued to conduct similar reviews regularly, comparing the list of rules that agencies submitted to GAO against rules that were published in the Federal Register   Until 2012, GAO periodically sent letters to OIRA regarding rules that it had not received  In March 2012, GAO notified OIRA that, due to constraints on its resources, it would no longer be sending lists of rules not received  Instead, GAO decided to continue to track only major rules not received, not all final rules, as they had previously done  In general, although there have been exceptions noted by GAO, agencies appear to be fairly comprehensive in submitting rules to Congress and GAO when those rules have been promulgated through an APA rulemaking process  GAO's federal rules database lists thousands of such rules each year  In the case of rules that are not subject to notice-and-comment procedures, however, agencies often do not fulfill the submission requirement, and tracking compliance for these types of agency actions is more difficult  Although GAO has voluntarily tracked agency compliance with the submission requirement, its methodology for doing so did not result in a complete list of agency actions that should have been submitted  GAO's point of reference was to compare regulations that were published in the Federal Register against regulations it received pursuant to the CRA  Most rules that are required to be published in the Federal Register are indeed subject to the CRA, making this a potentially helpful method of identifying rules that were not submitted  However, many of the other agency actions that are not subject to notice-and-comment requirements are not generally published in the Federal Registe r and are also not submitted to GAO  Therefore, using this method, many rules that should have been submitted likely were undetected by GAO and thus not included in the lists of un-submitted rules it sent to OIRA and to the agencies  It is precisely this issue that led to Members requesting GAO's opinion on individual agency actions that were of specific interest to them and were not submitted to Congress (nor, in most cases, published in the Federal Register )  The higher incidence of noncompliance with the CRA's submission requirement for agency actions that were conducted outside the notice-and-comment rulemaking process is likely due in large part to the practical difficulty of submitting the substantial number of agency statements that qualify as rules under the CRA  The CRA's submission requirement could potentially include a wide variety of items such as FAQs posted on agency websites, press releases, bulletins, information memoranda, and statements made by agency officials  In congressional testimony in 1997, one administrative law scholar argued that agencies "annually take tens of thousands of actions" that would fall under the CRA's definition of rule, and that Were agencies to comply fully with [the CRA's] requirement that all these matters be filed with Congress as a condition of their effectiveness (as it appears, thus far, they are not doing), Congress and the GAO would be swamped with filings  Burying Congress in paper might even seem a useful means of diverting attention from larger, controversial matters; haystacks can be useful for concealing needles  No one believes many, if any, of these rules will be the subjects of resolutions of disapproval  Yet for them even simple accompanying documents to permit data analysis and tracking, such as GAO has been proposing, would impose significant aggregate costs, well beyond their possible benefit  In addition, it seems possible that many agencies are unaware of the breadth of the CRA's coverage  Reading through various agencies' responses to the GAO opinions discussed below suggests that many agencies appear to be aware that notice-and-comment rules are generally covered by the CRA, but they may be unaware that many other types of actions are covered  For example, in an opinion it issued in 2012 regarding an action taken by the Department of Health and Human Services, GAO stated that "We requested the views of the General Counsel of HHS on whether the July 12 Information Memorandum is a rule for purposes of the CRA by letter dated August 3, 2012  HHS responded on August 31, 2012, stating that the Information Memorandum was issued as a non-binding guidance document, and that HHS contends that guidance documents do not need to be submitted pursuant to the CRA " GAO concluded, however, "We cannot agree with HHS's conclusion that guidance documents are not rules for the purposes of the CRA and HHS cites no support for this position " Because submission of rules is key to Congress's ability to use the CRA, if an agency does not submit a rule to Congress, this could potentially frustrate Congress's ability to review rules under the act  To avoid Congress being denied its opportunity for review of rules in this way, however, the Senate appears to have developed a practice that allows it to employ the CRA's review mechanism even when an agency does not submit a rule for review  That practice has involved seeking an opinion from GAO on whether an agency action should have been submitted under the CRA (i e , whether the action is covered by the CRA's definition of "rule")  In several instances since the enactment of the CRA in 1996, Members of Congress sought an opinion from GAO as to whether certain agency actions were covered by the CRA, despite the agency not having undertaken notice-and-comment rulemaking or having submitted the action to Congress  GAO has issued 21 opinions of this type as of March 5, 2019  In many of these opinions, GAO has defined the term "rule" as used in the CRA expansively  In 11 of the 21 opinions, GAO opined that the agency statement in question was a rule under the CRA that should have been submitted to the House and Senate for review  These opinions are summarized below in this report and are listed in a table in Appendix B   In recent years, the Senate has considered publication in the Congressional Record of a GAO opinion classifying an agency action as a rule as the trigger date for the initiation period to submit a disapproval resolution and for the action period during which such a joint resolution qualifies for expedited consideration in the Senate  Thus, the question of whether Congress may use the CRA's expedited parliamentary disapproval mechanism generally hinges upon the nature of GAO's opinion in such cases  By allowing the GAO opinion to serve as a substitute for the actual submission of a rule, the Senate can still avail itself of the CRA's expedited procedures to overturn rules  In responding to these requests from Members for opinions on whether certain agency actions are covered, GAO has played an important role in determining the applicability of the CRA, although the specific role that GAO has played in this regard is not explicitly outlined in the statute  But a review of the history of the early implementation of the CRA, and a consideration of GAO's other activities under the CRA, suggests that the role GAO currently plays with regard to determining whether a specific agency action is a "rule" is linked to other activities GAO has engaged in regarding the CRA  As has been noted, GAO's primary statutory requirement under the CRA is to provide a report to the committees of jurisdiction on each major rule, and to include in the report information about the agency's compliance with various steps of the rulemaking process for each major rule  For non-major rules, soon after the CRA was enacted, GAO voluntarily created an online database of rules submitted to it under the CRA, suggesting that it was willing to go beyond what was required of it by the statute to facilitate implementation  As GAO's general counsel explained in congressional testimony in 1998, "Although the law is silent as to GAO's role relating to the nonmajor rules, we believe that basic information about the rules should be collected in a manner that can be of use to Congress and the public  To do this, we have established a database that gathers basic information about the 15-20 rules we receive on the average each day " The database can be used to search for rules by elements such as the title, issuing agency, date of publication, type of rule (major or non-major), and effective date  The website also contains links to each of GAO's major rule reports  Perhaps most notably, however, GAO's determination of whether agency actions are considered "rules" under the CRA appears to be closely linked to its monitoring of agency compliance with the submission requirement as discussed above  The question of whether an agency action is a rule under the CRA is also a question of whether it should be submitted; arguably, then, GAO is addressing a very similar question in its opinions on whether certain agency actions are covered as it was in its initial reports to OIRA on agency compliance with the submission requirement  A discussion of GAO's role in a congressional hearing on the Tongass Land Management Plan in 1997 provides some evidence of the voluntary and, initially, ad hoc nature of GAO's role in this regard  One of the issues that was addressed at the hearing was whether the plan should be considered a rule under the CRA; GAO's general counsel was invited to testify at the hearing  Six days before the hearing, GAO issued its second opinion on the applicability of the CRA, in which it stated that the Tongass Land Management Plan should have been submitted as a rule under the CRA  Former Senator Larry Craig, who had requested the opinion, asked GAO's general counsel at the hearing about GAO's role: It is our understanding of your testimony and our own reading of the Regulatory Flexibility Act that the General Accounting Office has been given the role of advising Congress and perhaps agencies on whether their policy decisions constitute rules  It is our understanding that the GAO's independent opinion is generally given considerable weight by the agencies  Is this also the GAO's understanding of its role? In response, GAO's general counsel, Robert Murphy, stated that the CRA does not provide any identification of who is to decide what a rule is, unlike the issue of whether a rule is a major rule or not, which, as [OIRA Administrator] Ms  Katzen pointed out, has been assigned to her  So in that sense, I cannot say that GAO has a special role under the statute for making that determination  The decision, the opinion, that we issued last week on the question [of whether the Tongass Land Management Plan was a rule under the CRA] was done in our role as adviser to the Congress in response to the request of three chairmen of congressional committees  Thus, GAO acknowledged that its opinion was provided not pursuant to any specific provision of the statute, but in a more general, advisory capacity  In the years following, Members continued to request GAO opinions advising Congress on the matter of whether an agency action should have been submitted  Although GAO has issued 21 opinions on the applicability of the CRA since 1996, Congress's response to those opinions has varied over time  Initially, the GAO opinions finding that the agency actions in question were rules under the CRA did not lead to the introduction of joint resolutions of disapproval—Members appear not to have introduced any joint resolutions of disapproval following a GAO opinion until 2008  In 2008, GAO issued an opinion stating that a letter from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to state health officials concerning the State Children's Health Insurance Program was a rule for the purposes of the CRA; in response, Senator John D  Rockefeller introduced S J Res  44 to disapprove the guidance provided in the letter  According to a press release from the Committee on Finance at the time, however, the committee did not take further action on the resolution of disapproval because it had missed the window during which the action would have been required to be taken under the CRA to use its expedited procedures  The first time either chamber took action on a resolution of disapproval introduced following a GAO opinion was in 2012, when the House passed H J Res  118 (112 th Congress), a resolution of disapproval that would have overturned an information memorandum issued by the Department of Health and Human Services relating to the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program  The first time the Senate took action on such a resolution of disapproval was on April 18, 2018, when it passed S J Res  57 , overturning guidance from the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB) pertaining to indirect auto lending and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act  The House passed S J Res  57 on May 8, 2018, and the President signed it into law on May 21, 2018  Standing alone, a GAO opinion deciding whether an agency action is a "rule" covered by the CRA does not have legal effect  As discussed, GAO's role in determining whether actions are subject to the CRA is not provided for in the CRA, and its opinions are, in essence, advisory  The opinions do not have any immediate effect other than advising Congress as to whether GAO considers an agency action to meet the definition of "rule" under the CRA  As a matter of course, however, it appears that the Senate has chosen to treat the GAO opinions as dispositive on the issue  In several cases, individual Senators have stated that once a GAO opinion determining that an agency action is a rule is published in the Congressional Record , the time periods under the CRA commence and the agency action in question becomes subject to the CRA disapproval mechanism  The enactment in May 2018 of a joint resolution of disapproval that was introduced following a GAO opinion regarding a 2013 CFPB bulletin that had not been submitted by the agency further indicates that Congress, in at least some cases, is willing to consider the GAO opinion as a substitute for the agency's submission of a rule to Congress  GAO described this practice in November 2018 in one of its opinions relating to the applicability of the CRA: "Congress has opted to treat the receipt of a GAO opinion concluding that an agency action is a rule as triggering the statutory provisions that otherwise would have been triggered by the agency's submission  Thus, Congress has used GAO opinions to cure the impediment created by the agency's failure to submit the rule, protecting its review and oversight authorities " In sum, GAO opinions facilitate congressional review of rules that were not—but should have been—submitted under the CRA  A CRA provision barring judicial review makes it unlikely that a GAO opinion or any other congressional determination stating that a rule is subject to the CRA would be subject to challenge in court  This provision states that "[n]o determination, finding, action, or omission under this chapter shall be subject to judicial review " Accordingly, most courts have refused to review any claims arguing that an agency action should have been submitted to Congress as a rule under the CRA  As a result, the question of whether an agency action is subject to the CRA and its fast-track procedures will likely be settled in the political arena rather than in the courts, and, if Congress continues to treat GAO opinions as determinative, those opinions likely will be the final word on the issue  The provision barring judicial review may mean that one other critical aspect of the CRA may be addressed outside of the courts and through GAO opinions: whether a rule has taken effect  As discussed previously, the CRA states that agencies must submit covered rules to Congress and the Comptroller General "before a rule can take effect," suggesting that a rule may not become operative until the report required by the CRA is submitted to Congress  Indeed, the post-enactment statement inserted into the Congressional Record by the CRA's sponsors stated that, barring two exceptions listed in the CRA, "any covered rule not submitted to Congress and the Comptroller General will … not [take] effect until it is submitted pursuant to subsection 801(a)(1)(A) " However, courts have refused to adjudicate claims arguing that various rules are not in effect because an agency has failed to submit the rules to Congress  Accordingly, it is unlikely that a court would be willing to enforce this provision and declare that a rule lacks effect because it was not submitted to Congress  If an agency has not submitted a disputed action to Congress, it is possible that this inaction was the result of the agency's view that the rule was not subject to the CRA  A GAO opinion stating that an agency action does constitute a rule, while not itself rendering a rule ineffective, may be the first indication to the agency that the rule did not "take effect" because the agency did not fulfill the CRA submission requirement  But in the context of agency rules that inherently lack legal effect, the determination that they lack "effect" under the CRA may not have much practical impact  In the context of rulemaking, to "take effect" usually means that something has become legally effective  As noted, however, the CRA encompasses some non-legislative rules that inherently lack legal effect  The fact that the CRA requires agencies to submit some agency statements that lack legal effect suggests that the term "effect," as used in the CRA's submission requirement, means something other than legal effect  While reviewing notice-and-comment rulemakings, some courts have held that the CRA suspends a rule's operation notwithstanding the fact that a rule may technically have become effective  With respect to rules such as general policy statements that generally lack legal force, however, even if an agency failed to comply with the CRA's submission requirement and erroneously regarded the rule as being operative, it is less likely that the operation of the statement had a discernible and independent effect on the agency's actions  This section briefly summarizes each of the 21 GAO opinions to date on whether certain agency actions were rules and, thus, eligible for disapproval under the CRA  When GAO appeared to consider one or more of the CRA exceptions to the definition of "rule" as fundamental to its analysis, the summaries identify which exception GAO focused on in its opinion  The opinions are listed in chronological order by the date on which GAO issued the opinion  For a more concise summary of each of these opinions, see the table in Appendix B   The Emergency Sale Timber Program was enacted as part of the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations and Rescissions Act of 1995  The program was intended to "increase the sales of salvage timber in order to remove diseased and damaged trees and improve the health and ecosystems of federally owned forests " On July 2, 1996, the Secretary of Agriculture sent a memorandum entitled "Revised Direction for Emergency Timber Salvage Sales Conducted Under Section 2001(b) of P L  104-19 " to the Chief of the Forest Service, containing "clarifications in policy" for the program  GAO concluded that the memorandum was a rule under the CRA because some of its contents "clearly are of general applicability and future effect in interpreting section 2001 of P L  104-19 " and because, contrary to the argument the Department of Agriculture made to GAO when GAO requested its views on the matter, the memorandum "does not fall within the agency procedure or practice exclusion [in 5 U S C  §804(3)(C)] " On May 23, 2007, the Department of Agriculture's Forest Service issued the Tongass National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan, which "sets forth the management direction for the Tongass Forest and the desired condition of the Forest to be attained through Forest-wide multiple-use goals and objectives " GAO concluded that the plan was a rule under the CRA and was not excepted under 5 U S C  §804(3) because "decisions made in the Plan substantially affect non-agency parties and are, therefore, not 'agency procedures '" President William Clinton signed Executive Order 13061 on September 11, 1997, announcing policies related to the American Heritage River Initiative (AHRI)  The AHRI was intended to support American communities' efforts to restore and protect their rivers; the President was to designate, by proclamation, 10 rivers that would take part in the program  GAO concluded that Executive Order 13061 was not a rule under the CRA because the President is not an "agency" for the purposes of the CRA (or, for that matter, under the APA)  As such, actions taken by the President are not subject to the CRA  On February 5, 1998, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its "Interim Guidance for Investigating Title VI Administrative Complaints Challenging Permits " According to EPA, the intent of the guidance was to update EPA's procedural and policy framework regarding complaints alleging discrimination in the environmental permitting context  GAO concluded that "considered as a whole, the Interim Guidance clearly affects the rights of non-agency parties" and thus was a rule under the CRA and not exempt under 5 U S C  §804(3)  On May 3, 2000, the Farm Credit Administration (FCA) issued a booklet entitled "National Charters," and then the FCA published the booklet in the Federal Register on July 20, 2000  The booklet "provide[d] guidance on the national charter application process and the national charter territory  Specifically, the Booklet explain[ed] how a direct lender association can apply for a national charter; what the territory of a national charter will be; and what conditions the FCA will impose in connection with granting a national charter " GAO concluded that "we find that the Booklet, while labeled a statement of policy by the FCA, in actuality, meets the requirements of a legislative rule—which should have been issued using informal rulemaking procedures, including notice and comment " GAO then concluded that the booklet constituted a rule under the CRA and was not exempt under 5 U S C  §804(3) because the policies established in the booklet would have an effect on non-agency parties, and because statements made within the booklet clearly indicate that "the FCA recognizes the effect of the Booklet and national charters on other parties " The Trinity River Record of Decision (ROD) was issued in December 2000 and documented the Department of the Interior's selection of the actions that it deemed necessary to "restore and maintain the anadromous fish in the Trinity River " The ROD identified the department's selected courses of action for addressing the decreased river flows in the Trinity River Basin  GAO concluded that the ROD was a "rule" under the CRA because "its essential purpose is to set policy for the future," it was not a rule of agency procedure or practice under 5 U S C  §804(3), and "it will have broad effect on both rivers' ecosystems and potentially significant economic effect within the Sacramento and Trinity River basins " On July 18, 2002, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) issued a memorandum to network directors regarding the VA's marketing activities to enroll new veterans in the VA health care system  Specifically, the memorandum directed the network directors to no longer engage in trying to enroll new veterans through the use of certain types of activities, such as health fairs, veteran open houses, and enrollment displays at VSO meetings  GAO concluded that the memorandum was not a rule under the CRA because it "is clearly excluded from the coverage of the CRA by one of the enumerated exceptions found in 5 U S C  §804(3)"—specifically, GAO considered the memorandum to be a statement of agency procedure or practice that did not affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties  Rather, the memorandum governed internal agency procedures and did not affect the ability of veterans to enroll in the VA health care system  On January 23, 2003, the VA issued a memorandum terminating the Vendee Loan Program, a program that allowed the VA to make loans for the sale of foreclosed VA-loan-guaranteed property  In the memorandum, which was addressed to all directors and loan guarantee officers, the VA Secretary announced that it would no longer finance the sale of acquired properties  GAO concluded that the memorandum was not a rule under the CRA because it was a rule relating to agency management (i e , excepted under 5 U S C  §804(3)(B)) or a rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties (i e , excepted under 5 U S C  §804(3)(C))  GAO noted that "this is the type of management decision left to the discretion of the Secretary of VA in order to maintain the effective functioning and long-term stability of the program," and that "since the vendee loans were a purely discretionary method for VA to use to dispose of foreclosed properties, the change in the agency's 'organization' or 'practice' does not affect any party's right or obligation " On August 17, 2007, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services issued a letter to state health officials concerning the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP)  The letter "purports to clarify the statutory and regulatory requirements concerning prevention of crowd out for states wishing to provide SCHIP coverage to children with effective family incomes in excess of 250 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) and identifies a number of particular measures that these states should adopt " GAO concluded that the letter was a rule for the purposes of the CRA because it was a "statement of general applicability and future effect designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy with regard to the SCHIP program," and because GAO did "not believe that the August 17 letter comes within any of the exceptions to the definition of rule contained in the Review Act " On July 12, 2012, the Department of Health and Human Services' Administration for Children and Families issued an information memorandum concerning the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program  The memorandum notified states that HHS was willing to exercise waiver authority over some of the program's work requirements  GAO concluded that the information memorandum was a rule for the purposes of the CRA because it was a "statement of general applicability and future effect, designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy with regard to TANF," and it did not fall within any of the three exceptions to the definition of a rule  As GAO stated, the memorandum applied to states and therefore was of general applicability, rather than particular applicability; it applied to the states and not agency management or personnel; and it established "the criteria by which states may apply for waivers from certain requirements of the TANF program  These criteria affect the obligations of the states, which are non-agency parties " On January 8, 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a proposed rule entitled "Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units " The proposed rule was intended to establish "standards for fossil fuel-fired electric steam generating units (utility boilers and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) units) and for natural gas-fired stationary combustion turbines " GAO concluded that the proposed rule in question was not an action that was covered by the CRA, because the CRA was intended to apply only to final rules: "The issuance of a proposed rule is an interim step in the rulemaking process intended to satisfy APA's notice requirement, and, as such, is not a triggering event for CRA purposes " Furthermore, GAO stated "the precedent provided in our prior opinions underscores that proposed rules are not rules for CRA purposes, and GAO has no role with respect to them " On March 22, 2013, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, issued interagency guidance on leveraged lending  The guidance "outline[d] for agency-supervised institutions high-level principles related to safe-and-sound leveraged lending activities, including underwriting considerations, assessing and documenting enterprise value, risk management expectations for credits awaiting distribution, stress-testing expectations, pipeline portfolio management, and risk management expectations for exposures held by the institution " GAO concluded that the leveraged-lending guidance was a rule under the CRA because it was a general statement of policy that had future effect and because GAO could "readily conclude that the guidance does not fall within any of the three exceptions in the CRA " GAO's opinion, which was issued on October 19, 2017, was silent on the matter of the timing of its opinion relative to the guidance, which was issued in 2013  On December 9, 2016, the U S  Department of Agriculture's Forest Service approved an amendment to the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan  The plan identified the uses that may occur in each area of the forest  The Forest Service is required under the National Forest Management Act of 1976 to update forest plans at least every 15 years and potentially more frequently  GAO concluded that the amendment to the plan was a rule under the CRA because the amendment "has a substantial impact on the regulated community such that it is a substantive rather than a procedural rule for purposes of CRA " As such, the plan could not be considered to fall within the exception in 5 U S C  §804(3)(C), despite the argument presented by USDA when GAO asked the agency its views on the matter  On December 30, 2016, the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management issued its resource management plan for four areas in Alaska: the Draanjik Planning Area, the Fortymile Planning Area, the Steese Planning Area, and the White Mountains Planning Area  Land management plans such as these are intended to provide specific information for the use of public lands and are required under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976  GAO concluded that the plan was a rule under the CRA because it was of general applicability, had future effect, and was designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy, and because it did not fit into any of the three exceptions  Of particular relevance appeared to be the exception in 5 U S C  §804(3)(C): "Because the Eastern Interior Plan designates uses by nonagency parties that may take place in the four areas it governs, it is not a rule of agency organization, procedure or practice " On March 21, 2013, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a bulletin on "Indirect Auto Lending and Compliance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act " The bulletin "provide[d] guidance about indirect auto lenders' compliance with the fair lending requirements of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) and its implementing regulation, Regulation B " GAO concluded that the bulletin was a rule under the CRA because it "is a statement of general applicability, since it applies to all indirect auto lenders; it has future effect; and it is designed to prescribe the Bureau's policy in enforcing fair lending laws," and because the bulletin "does not fall within any of the [CRA's] exceptions " GAO's opinion, which was issued on October 19, 2017, was silent on the matter of the timing of its opinion relative to the bulletin, which was issued in 2013  On January 23, 2017, President Donald J  Trump released a presidential memorandum establishing his Administration's policy on global health assistance funding, often referred to as the "Mexico City Policy " The policy prohibited assistance to foreign nongovernmental organizations and other entities that perform or promote abortion as a method of family planning  To implement this policy, the Department of State issued a fact sheet entitled "Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance" on May 15, 2017, and the U S  Agency for International Development (USAID) issued revisions to its "Standard Provisions for U S  Nongovernmental Organizations" on March 2, 2017  GAO concluded that the two agency actions in question were not rules for the purposes of the CRA because, although the fact sheets were issued by federal agencies, they were merely implementing a decision of the President, under a statute that specifically granted broad policymaking authority to the President  GAO based this decision on a 1989 D C  Circuit case, DKT Memorial Fund v  Agency for International Development , which held that agency actions implementing the decision of President Ronald Reagan to establish the Mexico City Policy were not reviewable under the APA  The court held that the disputed decision involved "not a rulemaking by an agency, but rather a policy-making at the highest level by the executive branch," concluding that it did not have authority under the APA "to review the wisdom of policy decisions of the President" where the relevant statute granted the President broad discretion in the area of foreign affairs  GAO determined that in accordance with this precedent, the agency actions implementing President Trump's policy decision were not subject to the CRA  In guidance for the 2018 tax filing season, IRS announced on its website that it "would not accept electronically filed individual income tax returns where the taxpayer does not meet ACA reporting requirements, specifically to report full-year health coverage, claim a coverage exemption, or report a shared responsibility payment (known as 'silent returns') " GAO concluded that the agency statement was not a rule under the CRA because it "is a rule of agency procedure or practice that does not substantially affect taxpayers' rights or obligations," thus falling into the exception in 5 U S C  §804(3)(C)  In effect, according to GAO, the "statement changes the timing of IRS compliance measures, but it does not change IRS's basis for assessing taxpayers' compliance with existing law—namely, the requirement to file a complete tax return and to meet ACA reporting requirements " The Social Security Administration's (SSA) Hearings, Appeals, and Litigation Law Manual (HALLEX) describes how SSA will process and adjudicate claims for disability benefits under the Social Security Act  Two sections of the manual stated a policy under which an SSA adjudicator could not rely on information from the Internet, including from social media networks, in deciding a claim for benefits (with two exceptions)  GAO concluded that these two sections of HALLEX were not rules under the CRA because they were merely "procedures that govern the use of evidence from the Internet during those proceedings" and they "do not impose new burdens on claimants or alter claimants' rights or obligations during the SSA appeal process " Thus, GAO concluded that "the HALLEX sections are procedural rules that meet the [5 U S C  §804(3)(C)] exception " On July 26, 2018, the IRS issued Revenue Procedure 2018-38, which "modifies the information certain tax-exempt entities are required to report to IRS on their annual returns " On July 30, 2018, the IRS submitted Revenue Procedure 2018-38 to Congress under the CRA  On September 7, 2018, then-Senator Orrin Hatch submitted a request to GAO seeking its opinion on whether the revenue procedure was covered by the CRA's definition of "rule " The IRS had apparently made the determination, despite having submitted the document under the CRA, that the document was not covered by the CRA  Rather, the IRS argued that it had submitted the rule "out of an abundance of caution" and to "allow Congress to decide whether it is a rule by consulting GAO " The circumstances surrounding this GAO opinion were somewhat unique, because the IRS had already submitted the revenue procedure to Congress under the CRA by the time the question was raised as to whether the revenue procedure was covered by the definition of "rule " This appeared to be the first time that GAO had considered the application of the CRA when an agency submitted a rule and later made the argument that the rule was not covered  In its opinion, GAO primarily addressed the issue of whether the submission of the rule was sufficient to trigger the CRA's timelines rather than whether the revenue procedure met the statutory definition of "rule " GAO stated in its opinion that the purpose of the GAO opinions is "to cure the impediment created by the agency's failure to submit the rule, protecting [Congress's] review and oversight authorities," and, therefore, because the IRS had already submitted the rule, a GAO opinion on the CRA's applicability would be unnecessary  Furthermore, GAO confirmed that the IRS revenue procedure was available for congressional review under the CRA because the IRS had already submitted it: "IRS's submission triggered Congress's review and oversight powers under CRA, starting with the transmittal of the rule to the committees of jurisdiction " GAO also stated, "As Congress is not deprived of exercising its powers under CRA, there is no impediment to those powers that a GAO opinion might cure  We, therefore, take no position on whether the revenue procedure is a rule otherwise " On April 6, 2018, the Attorney General issued a memorandum directing federal prosecutors to adopt a zero-tolerance policy for illegal border crossings at the southwestern border of the United States  GAO concluded that the April 2018 memorandum was not a rule under the CRA because it was a rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice, and it did not change individuals' rights or obligations: "The rights and obligations in question are prescribed by existing immigration laws and remain unchanged by the agency's internal enforcement procedures at issue here " Thus, GAO concluded that the memorandum was covered by the exception in 5 U S C  §804(3)(C)  In March 2018, the Secretary of Commerce issued a memorandum to the Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs justifying the Secretary's decision to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census  According to GAO, the memorandum "described a December 12, 2017 request from the Department of Justice (DOJ) that the Census Bureau include a citizenship question on the 2020 census" and directed the Under Secretary to include such a question  Soon after the Secretary issued the memorandum, pursuant to statutory requirements, the Census Bureau delivered a report to Congress containing its planned questions for the 2020 census, including the citizenship question  GAO concluded that the memorandum was not a rule under the CRA, stating that "it was direction from a supervisor to a subordinate in conjunction with the statutory process whereby the Secretary informs Congress of the questions that will be on the census … As such, the memorandum does not meet CRA's definition of a rule because it was not designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy " Because the memorandum did not meet the definition of "rule" under section 551 of the APA, GAO did not discuss whether the memorandum would have been covered by any of the exceptions  Appendix A  Submission Form for Rules Under the CRA Appendix B  Summary of GAO Opinions


Report 2: According to international and U S  government sources, climate change poses serious risks to many of the physical and ecological systems upon which society depends, although the exact details of these impacts are uncertain  Climate change may intensify slow-onset disasters, such as drought, crop failure, and sea level rise  Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including sudden- onset disasters, such as floods, according to key scientific assessments  These effects of climate change may alter existing migration trends across the globe, according to IOM  (See appendix II for further discussion of climate change as a driver of migration in seven geographic regions ) For example, sea level rise, a slow-onset disaster, may result in the salinization of soil and drinking water, thereby undermining a country or community’s ability to sustain livelihoods and maintain critical services, which could cause some people to migrate  Sudden-onset disasters may also contribute to migration as people flee natural disasters, in most cases leading to temporary displacement  For example, people may either voluntarily migrate, or be forced to migrate, to earn money needed to rebuild damaged homes after flooding, especially as extreme weather events increase in intensity and number  If unable or unwilling to migrate, people may find themselves trapped or choosing to stay in deteriorating conditions  Sources agree that the effects of climate change generally impact internal migration, while migration across international borders due to climate change is less common  In deciding whether to migrate, people weigh multiple factors including economic and political factors, social or personal motives, or demographic pressures  The effects of climate change add another layer of complexity to this decision, but there is debate about the role climate change plays in migration  Figure 1 depicts how climate change may influence other factors that drive the decision to migrate or stay  There are limitations to reliably estimating the number of people displaced by climate change because there are no reliable global estimates for those migrating due to slow-onset disasters, and estimates for those migrating due to sudden-onset disasters are based on limited data, according to IOM  The lack of reliable data is due in part to the multi- causal nature of migration  Further, IOM notes that forecasts for the number of environmental migrants by 2050 vary from 25 million to 1 billion  They and others have questioned the methodologies used to arrive at even these broad estimates  Migration, potentially driven by climate change, may contribute to instability and result in national security challenges, according to some international organizations and national governments  For example, an influx of migrants to a city may put pressure on existing resources, resulting in tensions between new migrants and residents, or between the population and its government  The U S  Global Change Research Program has also stated that migration, such as displacement resulting from extreme weather events, is a potential national security issue  At different times, the United Nations General Assembly and, in 2014, DOD have deemed climate change to be a threat multiplier, as the effects of climate change could increase competition for resources, reduce government capacity, and threaten livelihoods, thereby causing instability and migration  Further, the U S  intelligence community considers climate change to increase the risks of humanitarian disasters, conflict, and migration  Identifying the cause of a conflict, however, is complicated, and experts debate the connections linking climate, migration, and national security  For example, IOM has reported that existing evidence on climate migration and instability must be considered with caution  Further, some studies stress that other factors can mitigate the effects of climate change on migration and stability, including governance and community resilience, as the World Bank has reported  State, USAID, and DOD are among the U S  government agencies with a role in responding to issues related to climate change, including as a driver of migration  State interacts with foreign governments and international organizations focused on climate change and migration primarily through the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (State/OES) and the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM)  USAID supports a range of development programs that help to mitigate the effects of climate change through the Bureaus for Economic Growth, Education and Environment; Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance; Food Security; Asia; and Africa; and individual USAID missions  Additionally, USAID’s Offices of U S  Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) lead and coordinate the U S  government’s emergency responses to sudden- and slow-onset disasters, and complex emergencies overseas  DOD assists in the United States’ humanitarian response to sudden- onset disasters abroad through its six geographic combatant commands, with support from the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the Joint Staff’s Office of Humanitarian Engagement  Climate change as a driver of migration was not a focus of the policy documents we reviewed for either the current or previous administrations during fiscal years 2014 through 2018  Our review of executive actions, budget requests, and executive branch strategies that affected State, USAID, and DOD found only brief mentions of climate change as a driver of migration  None of the documents we reviewed reflected a priority for assessing or addressing climate change as a driver of migration, although these documents reflect a shift in administrations’ climate change priorities more generally  The previous administration issued two executive orders and a presidential memorandum related to climate change  These executive actions had a policy of improving climate preparedness and resilience, factoring climate-resilience considerations into agencies’ international development decisions, and creating forums for interagency coordination  In March 2017, the current administration issued a subsequent executive order revoking some of the previous executive actions related to climate change  See figure 2 for a timeline of these executive actions  The previous administration issued three executive actions related to climate change, which included requirements focused on agencies’ considerations of the impacts of climate change and established forums for interagency coordination  The current administration issued an executive action related to energy independence and climate change  Executive Order 13653: Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change  Executive Order 13653 stated that agencies—including State, USAID, and DOD—shall, among other things, develop, implement, and update comprehensive Agency Adaptation Plans that integrate consideration of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives  Executive Order 13653 also established the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience  Executive Order 13677: Climate-Resilient International Development  Executive Order 13677 requires State, USAID, and other U S  government agencies with direct international development programs and investments to incorporate climate-resilience considerations into decision making by assessing climate-related risks to agency strategies, and to adjust relevant strategies as appropriate, among other things  Executive Order 13677 also established the Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development as part of the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience  2016 Presidential Memorandum on Climate Change and National Security  The 2016 presidential memorandum required, among other things, that agencies, including State, USAID, and DOD, develop an agency-specific approach to address climate-related threats to national security  It also required agencies to develop implementation plans that would describe how they would identify the potential impact of climate change on human mobility, including migration and displacement, and the resulting impacts on national security, among other requirements, and stated that the effects of climate change can lead to population migration within and across international borders, spur crises, and amplify or accelerate conflict in countries or regions already facing instability  The 2016 memorandum also established the Climate and National Security Working Group  Executive Order 13783, Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth  Executive Order 13783 revoked Executive Order 13653 and the 2016 presidential memorandum, among other things, as seen in figure 2  Priorities related to climate change shifted between the past two administrations as reflected in a recent budget request that reduced some climate change funding affecting U S  foreign assistance  2017 Presidential Budget Request  The previous administration stated in its fiscal year 2017 budget request that “the challenge of climate change will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other” and that “it is imperative for the United States to couple action on climate change at home with leadership internationally ” The fiscal year 2017 budget request sought $1 3 billion in discretionary funding to advance the goals of the Global Climate Change Initiative, which was established in 2010 and aimed to promote resilient, low-emission development, and integrate climate change considerations into U S  foreign assistance  The $1 3 billion in requested funding included $750 million in U S  funding for the Green Climate Fund, a multilateral trust fund designed to foster resilient low-emission development in developing countries  2018 Presidential Budget Request  The current administration, in its fiscal year 2018 budget request, did not include any funding for the Global Climate Change Initiative  In addition, the current administration’s budget request stated that it “Eliminate the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfill the President’s pledge to cease payments to United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating U S  funding related to the Green Climate Fund     ” Some strategies from the current and previous administrations that affect State, USAID, and DOD, among other agencies, reflect a shift in priorities related to climate change  For example, the previous administration cited climate change as a “top strategic risk” in its 2015 National Security Strategy and stated that climate change is an urgent and growing threat to U S  national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water  The current administration does not discuss climate change in its 2017 National Security Strategy  Additionally, State and USAID have a Joint Strategic Plan to help the agencies achieve the objectives of the National Security Strategy  The previous State-USAID Joint Strategic Plan included a strategic goal on “promoting the transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient world” that proposed leading international actions to combat climate change  The current State-USAID Joint Strategic Plan does not have a climate change goal  State, USAID, and DOD were required by executive orders to assess climate change-related risks to their missions and, for State and USAID, to their strategies, among other things  In response to Executive Order 13653, which has since been revoked, the agencies completed adaptation plans that integrated considerations of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives  In response to Executive Order 13677, which has not been revoked, State and USAID developed processes for climate change risk assessments for their country and regional planning documents  Although these executive orders did not require a specific assessment of climate change as a driver of migration, all three agencies have discussed the effects of climate change on migration in their adaptation plans and risk assessments  However, State lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies  State, USAID, and DOD each completed adaptation plans in 2014 that included limited discussions of migration as one potential effect of climate change  Executive Order 13653 directed the agencies to develop or continue to develop, implement, and update comprehensive Agency Adaptation Plans that integrate consideration of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives  Each adaptation plan was to include, among other things, a description of how the agency would consider the need to improve climate adaptation and resilience  State  In its 2014 adaptation plan, State included a brief discussion of climate change as one of multiple factors that potentially will drive migration and impact its mission  State reported that the specific impacts of climate change on the ability of the department to promote peace and stability in regions of vital interest to the United States were unknown  For example, according to the plan, an increase in heavy precipitation events around the world could damage the electric grid and transportation and energy water infrastructure, upon which State depends, making it difficult to maintain operations and diplomatic relations  In its plan, State reported that climate change impacts may threaten international peace, civil stability, and economic growth through aggravating existing problems related to poverty and environmental degradation  Further, environmental and poverty- related issues and regional instability could stress relationships with some foreign governments  However, the plan noted that specific impacts of climate change on conflict, migration, terrorism, and complex disasters were still unknown  USAID  In its 2014 adaptation plan, USAID included a brief discussion of migration as one potential effect of climate change that could also impact security  USAID stated that the impact of climate change on its programs and operations, if left unaddressed, could compromise the agency’s ability to achieve its mission  Further, USAID’s plan referred to increased migration as a potential risk of climate change  Flooding and other extreme climate events can result in increased migration, among other impacts, that could affect existing and planned USAID programming  In particular, programs in areas like agriculture and food security, global health, water and sanitation, infrastructure, and disaster readiness and humanitarian response are vulnerable to climate change, according to USAID  In the infrastructure area, climate change may necessitate new protective measures for coastal homes and infrastructure, and in some cases even mass evacuations or permanent migration  USAID stated that climate change could further reduce or alter the distribution of already limited resources like food and water, or force temporary or permanent migration of communities  According to the plan, in areas with high risk factors for conflict, climate change stresses can aggravate tensions and contribute to conflict  DOD  In its 2014 adaptation roadmap, DOD included a brief discussion of migration as one of multiple potential effects of climate change that could impact national security  DOD referred to climate change as a threat multiplier that can aggravate other risks around the world, with migration being one effect that could increase requests for DOD to provide assistance  The roadmap stated that as climate change affects the availability of food and water, human migration, and competition for natural resources, the department’s unique capability to provide logistical, material, and security assistance on a massive scale or in rapid fashion may be called upon with increasing frequency  Furthermore, DOD stated that the impacts of climate change may cause instability in other countries by, among other things, impairing access to food and water, damaging infrastructure, uprooting and displacing large numbers of people, and compelling mass migration  These developments, according to the department, could undermine already fragile governments that are unable to respond effectively, or challenge currently stable governments, as well as increase competition and tension between countries vying for limited resources  In response to Executive Order 13677, State and USAID developed processes for climate change risk assessments for their country and regional planning documents  Though these assessments are not specific to migration, a few of the assessments identified the nexus of climate change and migration  State  State required climate change risk assessments for all new integrated country strategies drafted in 2016 or later  We reviewed 10 integrated country strategies from the two regions that were the first to implement the climate change risk assessment requirement— Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific  All 10 of the strategies included climate change risk assessments, one of which—Cambodia— identified migration as a risk for the country  The Cambodia strategy states that internal migration due to climate change hinders access to health care and the prevention of infectious diseases like malaria  We also reviewed 10 strategies from State’s functional and regional bureaus for assessments of climate-related risks, including 3 functional bureau strategies (State/PRM, State/OES, and State’s Bureau of International Organization Affairs) and 7 regional bureau strategies  All of the functional bureau strategies we reviewed identified climate change as a risk and State/PRM cited the impact of climate change on migration  Of the regional bureau strategies we reviewed, we found that one, the Bureau for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, identified climate change as a driver of migration as a challenge or risk in its region  For example, the strategy states that climate change is becoming increasingly disruptive, potentially increasing migration due to rising sea levels  None of the other six regional bureau strategies we reviewed identified the nexus of climate change and migration as a risk or challenge  However, five regional bureaus identified climate change as a risk or challenge and one identified migration as a risk or challenge  USAID  USAID also requires the integration of climate risk management into all country or regional development cooperation strategies drafted since October 1, 2015  Missions must document in a climate change appendix to the strategy any climate risks they identified and how they considered climate change in their strategy  As of August 2018, USAID had completed five country or regional development cooperation strategy updates initiated since October 1, 2015—Uganda, Tunisia, East Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe—and all five included the required appendix  Of the five updated strategies, three—Uganda, Tunisia, and East Africa—discuss the indirect effect of climate change on migration, among other issues  For example, Uganda’s 2016-2021 country strategy states that increased frequency and duration of droughts is likely to be the most significant climate‐related change in Uganda  The strategy also notes that droughts have affected, and will continue to affect, water resources, hydroelectricity production, and agriculture, among other sectors  As agriculture, forestry, and fisheries decline in Uganda, the strategy asserts that people will migrate to urban areas, leading to the formation of slums  We also reviewed USAID’s nine regional development cooperation strategies, one of which—East Africa—had been updated since the requirement to include climate risk management  Of the other eight strategies that have yet to be updated, seven identified climate change as a challenge or risk and three identified climate change as a driver of migration as a challenge or risk  For example, the Southern Africa regional development cooperation strategy states that water scarcity, natural disasters, and other climate change related events will most likely increase migration throughout the region  Additionally, the Asia regional development cooperation strategy discusses the risks of climate change in urban areas  In Asia, the number of migrants seeking economic opportunities in urban centers is likely to increase  According to the strategy, migrants are moving into hazard-prone areas located along coastlines, flood plains, and other low-lying areas in many Asian primary and secondary cities—areas that experts predict will experience more frequent and intense storm surges, floods, and coastal erosion as a result of climate change  The requirement in Executive Order 13677 to assess climate change- related risks to agency strategies remains unchanged; however, State now lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change- related risks to its integrated country strategies  Specifically, State’s 2016 guidance for developing integrated country strategies stated that all missions should assess the risk of climate change on their strategies’ goals and objectives and included reference to the climate risk screening tool—a method that missions could use to assess climate change risks  State issued new guidance to its missions in 2018, but this guidance does not include information on the process for assessing climate change-related risks to agency strategies  According to State officials, the 2018 guidance for integrated country strategies does not reference climate change risk assessments because, in September 2017, State decided that the strategies should not single out climate change risks in a separate appendix  State officials said this decision resulted, in part, from the new administration’s shift in priorities on climate change  Officials also said that this decision reflects a new approach to risk management by State and that the missions could choose to include climate change and other potential risks in the general risk discussion section of their strategies  Officials from State’s Office of U S  Foreign Assistance Resources said that it is now up to each mission to decide whether a strategic objective may have a climate challenge  However, those missions that choose to include an assessment of climate change risks are not provided guidance on the process for doing so and there is no reference to the climate risk screening tool—or to climate change at all—in the 2018 guidance  Executive Order 13677 directed State to incorporate climate-resilience considerations into decision making by assessing climate-related risks to agency strategies, among other things  Subsequently, a State cable from September 2016 further explained that State would implement the executive order’s requirement by screening for climate risks as part of the process for drafting all new integrated country strategies  Additionally, the Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government state that documentation is a necessary part of an effective internal control system  If management determines that a principle is not relevant, management must support that determination with documentation that includes the rationale of how, in the absence of that principle, the associated component could be designed, implemented, and operated effectively  Because State lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies, it is less likely that the current round of strategies will include the assessment of climate- related risks  It is also possible that those missions that choose to conduct climate change risk assessments will not do so in a consistent manner  Such assessments might identify climate change as a driver of migration, as at least one previous assessment did under the 2016 guidance  Thus, without clear guidance, missions may not examine climate change as a risk to their strategic objectives and could miss opportunities to improve the climate resilience of foreign assistance activities  For fiscal years 2014 through 2017, State, USAID, and DOD had some activities that could potentially address climate change as a driver of migration, although none of these activities specifically focused on the issue  For example, USAID has climate change adaptation activities, but to date migration has not been a focus of this programming  With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, agencies have reduced some of these activities  State’s offices that are focused on the issues of climate change (State/OES) and migration (State/PRM) have participated in multilateral activities related to climate change as a driver of migration and funded adaptation and other activities related to the issue  State officials said that the agency does not, however, have any activities that specifically address migration due to climate change or environmental factors  State has participated in multilateral activities related to climate change and migration  With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, the United States has disengaged from some of these multilateral activities (see table 1)  In addition to State’s participation in the multilateral activities described in table 2, State has provided funding for activities related to climate change and capacity building that address natural disasters  These activities may involve efforts potentially related to migration  For example, according to State: State provided about $2 million per year, between fiscal years 2014 and 2016, to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which analyzed the impacts of climate change on migration in its most recent assessment report  State/PRM provided about $4 million, between fiscal years 2014 through 2018, for IOM’s Migrants in Countries in Crisis Initiative, which provides guidelines to protect migrants in countries experiencing conflict or natural disasters  IOM provides training to countries on these guidelines  State/PRM officials said that this initiative is not specifically related to climate change and does not focus on specific types of disasters but does mention sudden-onset disasters  Officials also said that IOM tries to promote a climate change perspective in its trainings  State/OES provided about $78 million in adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative to eight projects during fiscal years 2014 through 2017  (See appendix III for a description of all eight projects ) State/OES officials said that these projects help countries prepare for the impacts of climate change, potentially reducing the pressure to migrate  However, to these officials’ knowledge, none of these projects directly supported activities related to migration  For example, State/OES provided a $4 million grant to the National Adaptation Plans Global Network  This network focuses on increasing the capacity of governments to identify and assess climate risks, integrate these risks in planning, develop a pipeline of projects to address these risks, identify and secure funding for projects, and track progress toward resilience targets  Adaptation activities occurred in over 35 countries  With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, State discontinued some of these efforts  For example, funding for the Global Climate Change Initiative was not included in the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2018  State/OES officials said that the agency does not plan to fund additional adaptation activities and has not requested additional funding for the activities  According to a State official, PRM had been in discussion with IOM to develop a project proposal that would have assisted the governments of Small Island Developing States in adapting their migration policies to account for challenges and opportunities associated with environmental degradation, ecosystem loss, climate change impacts, and natural disasters  State/PRM stopped further development of the proposal following the change in administrations  Additionally, according to a State official, the department made some efforts at the end of the previous administration to develop a formal position on the topic of climate change as a driver of migration  For example, State drafted an internal document to help clarify its role in responding to the humanitarian aspects of sudden-onset and slow-onset climate events  This initial work stopped under the current administration  USAID officials said that, with respect to the agency’s climate-related programming, its climate change adaptation programming was the most likely to include activities related to migration or displacement, although a broad swath of USAID development programming has the potential to build host country resilience  Officials stated that, to date, migration has not been a primary motivation for the agency’s climate-related or disaster assistance programming  However, officials said that, in a humanitarian crisis or under some economic conditions, development programming can reduce displacement or the pressure to migrate—such as by fostering greater resilience to drought or other adverse conditions—and that this is also true of climate-related programming  USAID also provides humanitarian assistance in response to natural disasters that displace people  Officials said that USAID recognizes the links between displacement and natural disasters, but that the agency does not have specific programs linking disaster assistance, migration, and climate change  USAID identified about 250 activities that received adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative during fiscal years 2014 through 2016  Our analysis of the descriptions of these activities determined that none directly mentioned any efforts specifically related to migration  Officials emphasized that the connection between climate change and migration tends to be indirect and shaped by other more immediate factors  USAID’s data on activities that received adaptation funding identified 38 beneficiary countries, as well as activities described generally as implemented at the regional or global level  For activities where USAID’s data identified a specific region, most activities were located in Africa followed by Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean  Examples of the types of activities that received adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative during fiscal years 2014 through 2016 include: The Mali Climate Change Adaptation Activity, which aims to build resilience to current climate variability and increase resilience to longer-term climate change effects  This activity is also working to strengthen the capacity of Mali’s meteorological agency to provide improved climate information as well as to incorporate climate considerations into local-level planning  The total estimated cost is about $13 million over 5 years  The activity for Climate-Resilient Ecosystems and Livelihoods, which ended in September 2018, aimed to increase Bangladesh’s resilience to natural hazards by working with community-based organizations, government ministries, and technical agencies  This activity provided technical assistance to the Government of Bangladesh and local communities to improve ecosystem conservation and resilience capacity  The total estimated cost was about $33 million in funding over 6 years  The activity for Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through Market Expansion, which aims to support pastoralists in Ethiopia via expansion of markets and long-term behavior change (see fig  3)  USAID officials cited this activity as an example of adaptation efforts that indirectly address the issue of climate change as a driver of migration  The activity has three interrelated objectives: increasing household incomes, enhancing resilience, and bolstering adaptive capacity to climate change among pastoral people in Ethiopia  An evaluation of the activity found that migration is a coping strategy for dealing with climate shocks, although participants said that drought is becoming more frequent, placing a severe strain on traditional coping mechanisms, such as migration and selling cattle, and that permanent migration is not a preferred strategy  The total estimated cost is about $60 million in funding over 6 years  With the shift in priorities related to climate change, funding for USAID’s climate change adaptation activities has decreased  Missions may continue to fund their adaptation activities with discretionary funds or other earmarked, sector funding, provided the activities further the funding source’s objective, according to USAID  For example, in some cases, missions are using Water sector funding to continue some of their adaptation work  USAID also said that among the agency’s goals are to increase the resilience of USAID partner countries to recurrent crises, including climate variability and change  In addition to USAID’s climate change adaptation programming, USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP provide emergency humanitarian assistance to people affected by sudden-onset disasters—such as hurricanes and floods—and slow-onset and extended disasters, including droughts and conflicts  Some of this assistance helps people who have been displaced by disaster  USAID officials stated that although disasters cause mainly temporary displacement, the relationship among humanitarian assistance, climate change, and migration is very complex and depends on both climatic and non-climatic factors  USAID/OFDA responded to 267 disasters from fiscal year 2014 through June 2018, according to agency data  For example, USAID/OFDA responded to the effects of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti in October 2016, as seen in figure 4, including helping temporarily displaced people  DOD assists in the U S  government response to overseas disasters, including helping people displaced by such disasters, regardless of the cause of the disaster  These efforts are not specific to climate change as a driver of migration  For example, officials from DOD’s geographic combatant commands said that, to the extent they address climate change, migration is not a focus of those efforts and they view migration as caused by security and economic issues  Between fiscal years 2014 and 2018, Congress has appropriated to DOD between $103 and $130 million per year for Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid  Officials said that the geographic combatant commands use most of this funding for steady state humanitarian assistance related to health, education, basic infrastructure, and disaster preparedness with a smaller amount set aside for immediate disaster assistance although that varies based on emergency requirements  DOD officials said that they have not seen any changes to this funding or associated activities with the change of administrations in fiscal year 2017  DOD officials we spoke with also emphasized that USAID/OFDA is the lead agency for the U S  government’s response to disasters overseas  USAID/OFDA formally requested DOD support on about 10 percent of the foreign disaster assistance provided by USAID/OFDA, according to USAID data for fiscal year 2014 through June 2018 and DOD officials  DOD assistance is typically provided for the largest, most complex disasters, according to agency officials  According to a July 2015 assessment conducted by the geographic combatant commands, while their activities vary, each command works with partner nations to increase their abilities to reduce the risks and effects from environmental impacts and climate-related events, including severe weather and other hazards  For example, in the report, U S  Southern Command stated that it had requested funding to pre-position assets for when a severe storm threatens Haiti to be able to respond immediately to a potential disaster  U S  Southern Command officials said that they work with partner nations to encourage residents experiencing extreme weather to remain where they are because it is easier to provide help to people who stay in one place  Officials from U S  Southern Command and U S  Africa Command also said that the major factors driving migration in their regions are security and economic issues  State, USAID, and DOD have participated in interagency forums regarding climate change, which may have addressed its effects on migration  With changes to priorities regarding climate change in fiscal year 2017, these forums have been disbanded or are not meeting  The Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience  The Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, of which State, USAID, and DOD were members, was established to facilitate the integration of climate science in policies and planning of government agencies, including by promoting the development of climate change related information, data, and tools, among other things  Additionally, the council was to develop, recommend, and coordinate interagency efforts on priority federal government actions related to climate preparedness and resilience  According to State officials, the council began working with the National Security Council and other agencies to facilitate greater interagency cooperation on adaptation  In addition, a task force on the council was discussing the federal role in addressing displacement related to climate change  The council was disbanded when Executive Order 13783 revoked Executive Order 13653, which had established the council  The Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development  The Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development, of which State and USAID were members, was established by Executive Order 13677 and placed under the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience  The working group’s mission includes developing guidelines for integrating considerations of climate-change risks and climate resilience into agency strategies, plans, programs, projects, investments, and related funding decisions, among other things  Additionally, the working group was tasked with facilitating the exchange of knowledge and lessons learned in assessing climate risks to agency strategies, among other things  USAID officials said that the working group had not discussed climate change as a driver of migration  While the working group has not been formally disbanded, it has not met since at least November 2017 according to USAID  The Climate and National Security Working Group  The Climate and National Security Working Group, of which State, USAID, and DOD were members, was established by the 2016 presidential memorandum  The chairs of the working group were to coordinate the development of a strategic approach to identify, assess, and share information on current and projected climate-related impacts on national security interests and to inform the development of national security doctrine, policies, and plans, among other things  According to the memorandum, the working group was to provide a venue for enhancing the understanding of the links between climate change- related impacts and national security interests and for discussing opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation activities to address national security issues  This working group was disbanded when Executive Order 13783 revoked the 2016 presidential memorandum, which had established the working group  State, USAID, and DOD assessments and activities have not focused specifically on the nexus of climate change and migration  State did identify migration as a risk of climate change in at least one of its climate change risk assessments for the department’s country strategies  However, State now lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies  State’s current guidance for these country strategies no longer mentions a climate change risk assessment and does not provide missions with information about the climate risk screening tool that can be used to conduct such an assessment  As such, missions are less likely to examine climate change as a risk to their strategic objectives, or to do so in a consistent manner, and thus may not have the information they would need to identify migration as a risk of climate change  By clearly documenting and providing guidance on how to assess the risk of climate change, State would ensure that the department examines the potential risks of climate change on its foreign assistance activities  We are making the following recommendation to State: The Secretary of State should ensure that the Director of the Office of U S  Foreign Assistance Resources provides missions with guidance that clearly documents the department’s process for climate change risk assessments for integrated country strategies  (Recommendation 1) We provided a draft of this product to State, USAID, and DOD for review and comment  State provided written comments, which we have reprinted in appendix IV  In its comments, State did not oppose the recommendation and noted that the agency will update its integrated country strategy guidance by June 30, 2019 to inform missions that they have the option to include an annex on climate resilience, as well as other topics  However, State also indicated that the agency will begin working with stakeholders to consider whether to recommend that the Secretary of State ask the President to rescind Executive Order 13677: Climate- Resilient International Development  USAID also provided written comments, which we have reprinted in appendix V  In its letter, USAID provided some additional information about its programs and its proposed transformation effort  USAID and DOD provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate  We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional requesters, Secretary of State, the Administrator of USAID, and the Secretary of Defense  In addition, the report is available at no charge on the GAO website at http://www gao gov  If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact David Gootnick at (202) 512-3149 or gootnickd@gao gov, or Brian J  Lepore at (202) 512-4523 or leporeb@gao gov  Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report  GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI  This report (1) describes executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018; (2) examines the extent to which the Department of State (State), the U S  Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense (DOD) have discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in their plans and risk assessments; and (3) describes State, USAID, and DOD activities, if any, that are related to climate change and global migration  We chose fiscal years 2014 through 2018 as our time frame based on our review of recent executive orders related to climate change  We selected State, USAID, and DOD because the agencies’ missions of diplomacy, development, and defense provide the foundation for promoting and protecting U S  interests abroad  To describe executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018, we reviewed documents that reflect priorities of the previous and current administrations  Specifically, we reviewed budget requests and enacted appropriations between fiscal years 2014 through 2018 for funding priorities related to climate change and U S  foreign assistance  In addition, we reviewed executive actions and executive branch strategies that applied to State, USAID, and DOD between fiscal years 2014 through 2018 for executive and national security priorities related to climate change  For example, we reviewed the current and previous national security strategies  strategies and seven regional bureau strategies  For USAID, we examined the five country and regional strategies that were required to include a climate risk assessment at the time of our review: Uganda, Tunisia, East Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe  We also reviewed all nine USAID regional strategies  For both State and USAID, we reviewed the selected strategies by searching for information related to migration and climate change  To determine whether State clearly documents the department’s current climate risk assessment process for integrated country strategies, we compared State’s 2018 guidance for developing integrated country strategies with standards related to documentation in Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government and previous State guidance issued in 2016, which was created in response to Executive Order 13677’s requirements to assess climate change risks to strategies, among other things  to these issues  The agency then provided us with data for about 250 activities from its annual operational plans for fiscal years 2014 through 2016, the 3 years during the period we reviewed in which it received adaptation funding  USAID identified these activities based on whether the agency had tagged them in its plans as having an “adaptation key issue ” USAID excluded projects that had planned attributions to the adaptation key issue of less than $250,000 in a given fiscal year, as well as certain other activities such as those that focused on project support  We then conducted an automated review of the activity description fields provided by USAID for terms related to migration and other descriptive information such as locations of activities  Because no USAID adaptation activities specifically mentioned migration, for the purposes of this report we chose illustrative examples to provide context for the types of activities the agency has funded  DOD officials we met with did not identify any specific activities related to climate change as a driver of migration  DOD officials from the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the geographic combatant commands generally discussed DOD activities related to humanitarian assistance and disaster response as most relevant to our inquiry  Because DOD works in coordination with USAID’s Office of U S  Foreign Disaster Assistance on disaster assistance we also reviewed USAID data on its disaster response activities during this period  We determined that the USAID and State adaptation project data and USAID disaster assistance data were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of describing these efforts  State, USAID, and DOD to obtain information on whether changes in government priorities related to climate change affected their activities  We conducted this performance audit from October 2017 to January 2019 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards  Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives  We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives  This appendix provides a review by region of observed and projected climate change effects, migration trends, and challenges in stability and security  Multiple sources we used for this overview make a connection between climate change and such events as rising sea levels, higher temperatures, and an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events  The following regions are discussed: Asia, South America, the Arctic, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Oceania, and Central America and the Caribbean  We have provided an overview for each region and a focus on one country or territory in the region  international and regional organizations, including a variety of organizations within the United Nations, the World Bank, regional development banks, the European Union, and others  Third, we reviewed relevant public documents from U S  government agencies, including the Department of Defense, the U S  Agency for International Development (USAID), and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)  Fourth, we reviewed academic sources, research institutions, and documents from the relevant country’s national government  population  Economic conditions may be a factor for people deciding whether to migrate or stay in their country of origin  Remittances as Percent of GDP: The money international migrants transfer to recipients in their country of origin, expressed as a percentage of the origin country’s GDP  Sources agree that remittances support resilience in origin countries  Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry as Percent of GDP: A measure of the value added to an economy from the agricultural sector, which includes forestry, hunting, fishing, and the cultivation of crops and livestock, expressed as a percentage of the country’s GDP  Countries that depend on the agricultural sector may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, according to the World Bank  Percent of Population in Cities: The population living in areas classified as urban according to criteria each country uses  Today, more than half of the global population lives in cities  Migration, in some cases due to climate change, is an important driver of urban growth, according to IOM  Cities are also expected to face increasing risks from rising sea levels, flooding, storms, and other climate change effects  Net Migration Rate: A measure of the number of people leaving a country compared to the number of people entering a country, expressed as a number per 1,000 people  The effects of climate change in Asia may impact migration and stability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)  In coastal areas, effects of climate change include rising sea levels, storm surges, and others  Receding glaciers in mountanous areas may also cause flooding, and monsoons in a warmer climate may be more severe  Heat extremes and more rainfall are a particular concern in Southeast Asia  Changes in precipitation and drought in Asia may exacerbate food security challenges, and contribute to people deciding to migrate  Increases in migration, partly stemming from the effects of climate change in surrounding rural areas, may put pressure on existing urban infrastructure  Rural migrants may settle in informal communities on the outskirts of cities, areas that have little resilience to natural disasters  Although the World Bank and others agree that climate change largely causes internal migration, some evidence shows that the impact of climate change contributes to cross-border migration in Asia  Large numbers of migrants, along with other destabilizing factors, may contribute to instability and conflict, according to the IPCC  The effects of climate change on livelihoods, for example, could increase migration, strain governance, and contribute to conflict as a result  Bangladesh is one example where decreased yields from agriculture and fisheries have contributed to migration to the country’s coastal cities, which face their own climate change challenges  Bangladesh’s high population density and geography make the country susceptible to the effects of climate change, according to the World Bank, and others  Bangladesh’s coasts and river banks are vulnerable to sudden-onset events such as tropical cyclones and flooding  Cyclone Aila in 2009, for example, caused widespread flooding in the southern coastal areas of Bangladesh and impacted millions of people  The storm washed away embankments that protected coastlines and caused severe damage to crops and livelihoods  Tropical Cyclone Mora in 2017 damaged thousands of homes and displaced an estimated 200,000 people  Increases in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, which some predict will occur in a warmer climate, could have severe impacts on homes, livelihoods, and food security  Bangladesh also experiences many slow-onset climate change events, such as rising sea levels and increasingly severe droughts, which are projected to intensify with climate change  Bangladesh would lose an estimated 17 5 percent of its land if the sea level rose 1 meter, as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has reported  Projected changes in precipitation levels could cause drought and food insecurity in the northwest and salt-water intrusion could reduce crop yields in the southwest  Migration is a common adaptation strategy to climate change in Bangladesh, according to the ADB  For example, some farmers have adapted to salt water intrusion and destroyed crops by switching to salt- tolerant rice production or shrimp cultivation  Others have migrated, often to Bangladesh’s cities to find work less dependent on agriculture  Many new migrants to Bangladesh’s cities live in informal settlements that lack the resilience to withstand sudden-onset climate events  The capital city, Dhaka, is a common destination for migrants displaced by salt-water intrusion, flooding, and river erosion, according to IOM  Dhaka, like many coastal cities in South Asia, is located on a low-lying riverbank and faces increasing risks of extreme flooding  For example, past floods in Dhaka have destroyed homes and contaminated drinking water, creating significant health hazards  In some cases, individuals migrate to cities temporarily for work and return home after the agricultural off season ends  Bangladeshis also provide a significant number of labor migrants to the Gulf States and Malaysia  Remittances from international migrants represent 5 4 percent of the country’s GDP, and may help to support resilience to climate change, according to IOM, and others  These migration trends may intensify in the future  One study estimates 9 6 million people will migrate from 2011 to 2050 due to the effects of climate change  Challenges in Stability and Security Migration due to climate change is cited as a potential destabilizing factor in Bangladesh by ADB, and others  The low-income population in Bangladesh is dependent on agriculture, making the effects of climate change—including impacts on food security—a particular concern  By 2030, these effects on livelihoods and food security could increase the poverty rate in Bangladesh by 15 percent, as the IPCC has reported  Given the proximity of Bangladesh to India, some individuals may also choose to cross the border  Increased migration to India is a potential concern, according to some sources, as India may not have the resources to absorb large numbers of Bangladeshi migrants  The CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA: 2007); and Population Council, “Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India,” Population and Development Review, Vol  36, No  2 (2010)  The effects of climate change in South America vary by region, according to the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Organization for Migration (IOM), as well as potentially impacting migration and stability  On the coast, risks include sea level rise, depletion of fisheries, and coral reef bleaching, according to IOM  Coastal cities with growing populations are particularly vulnerable  Melting glaciers in the Andean mountain region, and increased rainfall are expected to change the distribution of water resources, and impact food production as global demand for food is growing  Desertification and land degradation, complicated by the effects of climate change, are contributing to migration from rural areas to cities in South America, as IOM has reported  An estimated 77 percent of people living in high risk areas in South America are located in cities, according to IOM  IOM predicts that as these people feel the effects of sea level rise and water scarcity, they will migrate from the large coastal cities to smaller urban areas  While South America has experienced economic growth in the last decade, poverty rates remain high, and the effects of climate change, including possible migration, may exacerbate inequalities, putting further pressure on cities to meet the needs of their populations  Water security in particular is expected to disproportionaly impact low-income communities, according to the IPCC  For example, in Brazil, drought in the northeast may increase migration to southern cities that are facing rising sea levels and landslides, with consequences for food, water, and energy security  Observed and Projected Effects of Climate Change Brazil’s cities and rural regions may encounter a range of climate change effects, according to the IPCC and IOM  Rural areas, particularly in the northeast, could experience significant impacts from climate change partly due to poverty rates, and historical vulnerability to drought  Higher temperatures are expected to affect crop yields and household incomes, especially for low-income communities  In northeastern Brazil, temperatures are expected to increase and rainfall to decrease  The northeast could see a 22 percent reduction in precipitation by 2100, according to IPCC projections  Brazil’s coastal areas, including cities, are also vulnerable to rising sea levels, heavy precipitation, flooding, and landslides  The vast majority of Brazil’s population, about 86 percent, lives in cities, many in coastal areas, according to the United Nations Development Program  As their populations have grown, urban areas have extended out  This urban growth in Brazil’s megacities has caused further increases in temperature, rainfall, and landslides  For example, current levels of urbanization in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo may already be responsible for the 2°C warming observed in the city over the last 50 years, as well as the rise in extreme rainfall, according to the IPCC  The metropolitan area is expected to extend its area 38 percent by 2030  Multiple studies of the effects of urbanization on Sao Paulo’s climate suggest higher temperatures affect convective rainfall, which occurs when warm air rises, condenses to form clouds, and produces extreme rain  Other concerns are the depletion of coral reefs and mangrove forests on Brazil’s coastlines, and decreases in biodiversity  Migration from drought in northeastern Brazil to cities has increased urban populations, putting more people at risk of displacement from flooding and landslides  Migration from the northeast is a historical trend in Brazil, as economic migrants have sought seasonal jobs in more productive agricultural regions, or moved permanently to southern cities  Projected declines in rainfall have led some to predict further increases in migration in northeastern Brazil, as the IPCC has reported  However, remittances from family members who leave Brazil’s northeast support resilience for those who remain and may help to reduce migration  Already environmental factors contribute to migration to cities, including to favelas, informal settlements often constructed in hilly areas and floodplains outside of Brazilian cities  A significant number of the favela residents in Rio de Janeiro are migrants from northeastern Brazil, according to IOM  These new migrants may be at risk of further displacement if heavy rainfall, flooding, and other climate change effects destroy their vulnerable homes  For example, heavy rainfall in April 2010 resulted in landslides across Rio de Janeiro, displacing an estimated 5,000 people, according to a report from the World Bank  Brazil is also a destination for migrants from other countries in the region  Migrants from Venezuela searching for jobs and improved food security have come in growing numbers in recent years, as have migrants from Haiti fleeing a series of natural disasters, as IOM has reported  Challenges in Stability and Security Although Brazil ranks 106th out of 178 countries on the Fragile States Index, the effects of climate change may contribute to challenges with water, food, and energy access according to the IPCC  Decreased rainfall could decrease agricultural productivity, with potential health impacts for poor populations  These conditions are of particular concern in northeastern Brazil, as extreme weather and low crop yields are associated with more violence, according to the IPCC  Brazil also receives about 70 percent of its electricity from hydroelectric power, according the United Nations Environment Programme, and recent droughts caused power cuts across many major cities  Although not linked to the effects of climate change, absorbing a growing number of migrants fleeing political and economic instability in Venezuela may impact the broader region, according to the U S  Department of Defense and the National Intelligence Council  Neighboring countries, including Brazil, may struggle to absorb the influx of migrants  On average, 800 Venezuelans are crossing the border to Brazil every day in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, according to the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency  The effects of climate change in the Arctic, including higher temperatures and melting ice, have contributed to shifts in migration across the Arctic, and may have security implications  Increasing temperatures may have a variety of impacts in the Arctic, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  The effects of rising temperatures are disrupting livelihoods and food security, especially for indigenous communities, and opening up untapped natural resources to extraction  Both trends have impacted migration flows in the Arctic  Rising temperatures and melting ice have opened up previously inaccessible waterways in the Arctic, with implications for national security, according to the Department of Defense and others  Greenland, located in the Arctic and considered part of Kingdom of Denmark, exhibits many of these trends  Greenland is experiencing the effects of climate change, including glacial and ice melt, shifts in wildlife distribution, and newly available oil and mineral deposits, among others  The Greenland Ice Sheet covers approximately 80 percent of Greenland’s land mass  The ice sheet’s melting rate is slow, but uncertain  Increases in temperature greater than 1°C may result in the near loss of the entire ice sheet over a millennium and significant sea level rise, according to the IPCC  In the short term, predicting the ice sheet’s melting rate is a challenge as predictions vary in the scientific community  Accurate predictions would support mitigation and adaptation efforts in vulnerable areas  Rising temperatures and shrinking ice cover have shifted the distribution and migration patterns of marine mammals and fish, and impacted food security according to the IPCC and the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum for Arctic states  For example, the economy in Paamiut, Greenland, depended primarily on cod fisheries until changing climate conditions caused cod to disappear, and the town was slow to adapt to newly available shrimp  Similarly, fisheries in Disko Bay, Greenland, have struggled to adapt to new conditions  Rising temperatures and the resulting reduction in ice cover have required a shift to fishing from boats in open water instead of hunting and fishing over ice cover  Lastly, warming and ice melt may make significant oil and mineral deposits accessible for extraction in the future  The potential expansion of extraction industries makes environmental sustainability another possible concern  For example, an estimated 31 billion barrels of oil and gas may exist off the coast of Northeast Greenland, according to the Kingdom of Denmark’s 2011-2020 Arctic Strategy  The strategy stresses the importance of assessing and reducing risks to the environment resulting from the exploration and extraction of oil and gas  The effects of climate change are predicted to contribute to internal and external migration in Greenland  For example, young people are increasingly leaving indigenous communities in rural areas for cities in Greenland in search of work, as traditional livelihoods become unsustainable  Greenland is home to a majority indigenous population, primarily Inuit, whose traditional hunting and fishing practices require travel across ice  In the past, people adapted to seasonal changes to support livelihoods by migrating, and the practice was embedded into indigenous social structures  With reduced ice cover, however, migrating to hunt, fish, and maintain connections to community is more dangerous or restricted  Government policies promoting centralized services, such as health care and education, have also played a role in the shift away from migration as a way of life  As a result, indigenous livelihoods are more difficult to maintain, and young people often migrate to towns and cities in Greenland, or to Denmark, for education  At the same time, warmer temperatures have made mineral extraction feasible  As the extraction industry grows, new jobs may draw migrants from outside the Arctic region  In 2011 companies spent $100 million on the exploration of minerals in the Artic, and the estimated number of new mines is expected to require more workers than now live in the region 17 79Currently, more people leave than migrate to Greenland  The local Inuit population in Uummannaq, Greenland relies heavily on ice coverage for fishing and travel by traditional dog-sled  Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement, A Complex Constellation: Displacement, Climate Change and Arctic Peoples (January 30, 2013)  Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement  The effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa vary depending on the region and have impacts on migration and security, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM)  Coastal areas, for example, in West and East Africa are at risk from sea level rise that could affect major cities  Drought and the risk of desertification in the Sahel is cited as a concern, as is increased rainfall in parts of Central Africa accompanied by lower agricultural yields  As desertification threatens the livelihoods of farmers and herders, and drought makes fishing more challenging, rural dwellers may be more likely to migrate to cities, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)  Urbanization and population growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is already making densely populated cities vulnerable to flooding, storms, and erosion, increasing the number of people at risk of displacement by sudden-onset disasters  Climate change effects and changing migration flows across Sub-Saharan Africa may impact access to natural resources and contribute to existing tensions and conflicts, according to UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  In Nigeria, the effects of climate change may effect a variety of livelihoods and increase migration south, while also exacerbating existing conflicts  The effects of climate change on Nigeria may impact the country’s agriculture and economy, according to the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)  Higher temperatures and decreased rainfall have contributed to drought in northern Nigeria  Desertification is also a concern  Some regions in northern Nigeria have less than 10 inches of rain a year, an amount that has decreased by 25 percent since the 1980’s, according to USIP  In other areas across Nigeria flooding has resulted in major crop losses, according to UNEP  Rising sea level, water inundation, and erosion are concerns in Nigeria’s coastal areas  Rising sea level is predicted to pose medium to very high risks to Africa’s coastal areas by 2100, according to the IPCC  Future sea level rise could result in the inundation of over 70 percent of the Nigerian coast  A rise of 0 2 meters in sea level could risk billions of dollars in assets, including oil wells near the coast  Even without a rapid rise in sea level, Nigeria’s coastal areas could experience erosion and significant land loss by 2100, as the IPCC has reported  The effects of climate change on livelihoods in northern Nigeria may contribute to migration to the south according to UNEP, while conflict in the north drives separate migration trends  As the effects of climate change make farming and fishing more challenging elsewhere in Nigeria, migration to southern coastal cities may increase  Traditionally, farmers, herders, and fishery workers migrated for temporary employment during the off season, including migration to Nigeria’s cities to work in the oil industry  Permanent migration south as well as to cities may become more common if land suitable for farming decreases  As fish habitats like Lake Chad dry up, fishery workers may also migrate  Larger urban populations on the coast will put more people at risk of sea level rise, water inundation, and erosion, according to the IPCC  A rise in sea level of 1 meter could put over 3 million people at risk of displacement as the IPCC has reported  Herders have also moved further south due to increased drought in northern Nigeria, as UNEP and USIP have reported  A 2010 survey of herdsmen in Nigeria, for example, found that nearly one-third of them had migrated southeast as a result of changes in the natural environment, according to the UNEP  The ongoing conflict with Boko Haram, while not caused by climate change, has further resulted in millions of displaced people across the Lake Chad region, including many Nigerians who have fled to Cameroon, Chad, and Niger  Nigerian refugees at the Minawao camp in Cameroon  Challenges in Stability and Security The effects of climate change, migration, and conflict are interconnected in Nigeria, as USIP has reported  The country is ranked 14th of 178 countries on the Fragile States Index  Events in northwest Africa, including Boko Haram’s attacks in Nigeria, have underscored concerns about the region’s vulnerability to the spread of violent extremism  The effects of climate change may exacerbate these concerns, according to USIP  Nigerians fleeing attacks from Boko Haram in the north have gone to communities in neighboring Chad, Cameroon, and Niger that are already experiencing food shortages due in part to climate change  These neighboring countries as a result have fewer resources to support both their own residents and the newer refugees  Non-state actors may also take advantage of government inaction on the effects of climate change  Boko Haram, for example, has justified its acts of violence by pointing to government failures, according to the USIP  Separately, increased drought in the north may aggravate historic tensions over land and water use between farmers in the south and herders migrating from the north, according to UNEP  Nigeria’s oil fields on the coast, which represent a significant part of the economy, are also at risk from sea level rise  Potential losses in oil revenue could impact Nigeria’s ability to respond to humanitarian crises and conflict at home  Increased violence within its borders could also affect Nigeria’s ability to support regional peacekeeping missions, such as the United Nations Mission in Liberia from 2003 to 2018, where Nigerian troops worked to restore security after a civil war  The effects of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa, including on its desert regions, may impact water access and compound migration and stability challenges, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)  Over 60 percent of the population already experiences high or very high water stress, according to the World Bank  Coupled with unsustainable water use, climate change may further exacerbate challenges with water security  The region continues to experience rising temperatures and declining annual rainfall, trends that contribute to the severity and length of drought, land degradation, and desertification  Decreased water security affects the livelihood and quality of life of farmers in the region, contributing to an increase in their migration to the cities and more urbanization, according to the World Bank  In contrast, many people are expected to migrate away from coastal cities as a result of sea level rise, according to UNEP  These potential migrations would be taking place in a region that already hosts large numbers of migrants such as those displaced by conflict and violence, including 18 percent of the world’s refugees, according to the International Organization for Migration  Challenges in water security may put greater pressure on unstable governments in the region, by intensifying existing tensions and conflicts between populations and their governments as well as between countries that share sources of water  The conflict in Syria illustrates the complex nature of climate change, migration, and conflict in the region, and the challenges to accurately assessing the links among the three, as noted in a technical paper commissioned by the U S  Agency for International Development (USAID)  Rising temperatures and declining rainfall have contributed to recent droughts in Syria, a trend that may continue  The country underwent an extended drought from about 2006 until 2011  During the drought an estimated 60 percent of Syria experienced severe crop failure, and accompanying impacts on food security  Some studies have linked the length and severity of the drought in Syria to climate change, as USAID has reported  Others, however, have pointed to government land and water use policies, combined with the effects of climate change, as responsible for the severity of the drought  Agricultural policies, for example, encouraged farmers to grow water intensive crops like wheat, and supported inefficient irrigation practices, policies which further depleted ground water and made the region more vulnerable to decreases in rainfall linked to climate change  Across the Middle East, the rising temperatures and declining rainfalls of recent decades may worsen, according to the World Bank  If these trends continue, countries in the Middle East, including Syria, could continue to experience periods of severe drought and reduced crop yields  Migration Trends The ongoing conflict in Syria, in which migration due to climate change may have been a contributing factor, has caused large-scale migration to neighboring countries in the Middle East and to Europe  Leading up to the civil war, prolonged drought, among other factors, had increased migration to Syrian cities  Because of the drought, in 2009, over 800,000 Syrians lost their livelihoods in the agricultural sector, while nearly 1 million experienced food insecurity  In 2010, an estimated 200,000 people migrated from farms in rural areas to cities, according to a UN report  The conflict in Syria, which began in 2011, has further displaced large numbers of people within the country and across the Middle East, as we have previously reported At the beginning of the conflict, Syrians, as well as Iraqi and Palestinian refugees who had been residing in Syria, fled mainly to Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey  As the conflict persisted, refugees fled in larger numbers to Turkey, with the UNHCR reporting that nearly 1 million Syrians sought protection in that country in 2015  Starting that year, a growing number of Syrians risked dangerous sea voyages to reach countries in Europe, such as Greece, Germany, and Sweden  As of June 2017, more than 5 million registered Syrian refugees were living in neighboring countries, including more than 3 million in Turkey, and more than 1 million in Lebanon  Challenges in Stability and Security Sources agree that the Syrian conflict is a significant security challenge that has resulted in large scale migration across the Middle East and to Europe  Yet the link between prolonged drought, rural to urban migration, and the current conflict in Syria is uncertain  Some academic sources argue that the increased strain on urban infrastructure and resources due to the rural to urban migration played a role in Syria’s growing instability  Others highlight the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, pointing to broader political factors that exacerbated resource scarcity and inequality  For example, as the drought intensified, the Syrian government downplayed the severity of the humanitarian crisis, as described in research cited in a technical report commissioned by USAID result, appeals to the international community for emergency aid received minimal support  Combined with existing sectarian divisions, ongoing revolutions across the Middle East, and other factors, the government’s response to the drought may have contributed to the current conflict  Migration and displacement are a concern in the region, according to the Department of Defense and others  The U S  government has provided significant humanitarian assistance for Syrian refugees in the Middle East, including in Lebanon and Jordan, as we have previously reported However, a technical report commissioned by USAID has cautioned that the ongoing conflict in Syria makes it difficult to conduct research and draw conclusions related to climate, migration and conflict  As a The effects of climate change on Oceania, particularly rising seas, may significantly impact coastal populations and increase migration in the future, as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have reported  Rising temperatures and declining rainfall may also contribute to lower yields from fisheries and agriculture, and a significant decrease in coral reef cover  Extreme weather events, including higher temperatures, wind, and rainfall, have already increased in number and intensity across the region  In the majority of Pacific island nations, of those who migrate, more people leave than come, according to the African, Caribbean, and Pacific Observatory on Migration  The majority of migration in the region is economically driven  In the future, climate change may further impact these migration patterns across the region, according to the IPCC  Climate change has already exacerbated challenges that aid-dependent nations in the region face, restricting livelihoods and resources and contributing to pressures to migrate  The costs of climate change, including a decline in crop yields, a rise in energy demands, and a loss of coastal land, are predicted to be significant  The ADB estimates these costs will reach 12 7 percent of the Pacific regions’ GDP by 2100  Increased migration may also impact political stability and play a role in geopolitical rivalries within the region, according to the IPCC  The effects of climate change, especially rising sea levels, may result in forced migration from the Republic of the Marshall Islands (the Marshall Islands) and have additional impacts on the U S  defense infrastructure on the islands  Observed and Projected Effects of Climate Change Rising sea levels are a grave threat to the Marshall Islands The country consists of islands, low-lying atolls—coral caps sitting on top of submerged volcanoes—making it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels  On average, the Marshall Islands are 2 meters above sea level  In Majuro, the country’s most populous atoll, observed rates of sea level rise are already twice as fast as the global average  Population centers experience significant flooding, with damage to roads, houses, and infrastructure, especially during La Niña years, which are significantly wetter and more prone to extreme rainfall  Flooding is expected to worsen with rising sea levels, with consequences for the availabity of drinking water  On Roi-Namur island, for example, a 0 4 meter rise in sea level combined with wave-driven flooding is predicted to make groundwater undrinkable year round as early as 2055  This salt water inundation may contaminate already limited groundwater across the Marshall Islands  Lastly, during the 1940s and 1950s, the Marshall Islands was the site of 67 U S  nuclear weapons tests on or near Bikini and Enewetak Atolls  Projected increases in frequency of flooding may negatively impact efforts to contain radioactive material stored on Runit Island  A number of factors have increased migration from the Marshall Islands, including to the United States  In 1986, the United States entered into a compact of free association with the country that allowed its citizens to migrate to the United States, as we have previously reported  As a result, more than 20,000 Marshallese now live in the United States People are more likely to migrate abroad as the effects of climate change on the Marshall Islands—including rising sea levels—increasingly impact livelihoods The threat of mass displacement and forced migration is also a concern, as the International Organization for Migration has reported  However, Marshallese culture has a strong connection to the land, which means that many view migration as a last resort  For people still living in the Marshall Islands, they face overpopulation in urban centers and displacement by sudden-onset disasters like cyclones and flooding  Factors influencing people deciding to move abroad include displacement, lack of economic opportunity—sometimes exacerbated by climate change—and limited access to health care  Climate change is likely to increase risks to public health in the country Increased rainfall, for instance, may expand mosquito breeding grounds, raising the risk of diseases like dengue fever  The country’s limited health care system may further contribute to migration from the islands  Challenges in Stability and Security In the future, the Marshall Islands may become uninhabitable  This prospect threatens the existence of the Marshall Islands as a sovereign state, as well as the United States defense facilities located on the islands  The total loss of land could result in the Marshall Islands being uninhabitable, which raises problems of migration, resettlement, cultural survival, and sovereignty  Relocation of the population of the Marshall Islands, and of other Pacific Island nations at risk of rising seas, could cause significant geopolitical challenges The Marshall Islands are also of strategic importance for the United States  Under the Compact of Free Association, the United States has permission to use several islands— including Kwajalein Atoll, the location of the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Range—until 2066  The country’s proximity to the equator makes the Marshall Islands ideal for missile defense and space work  Yet the island’s defense infrastructure and operations are at significant risk due to rising sea levels, flooding, and diminishing supplies of potable water  As the Department of Defense has noted, climate change will have serious implications for the department’s ability to maintain its infrastructure and ensure military readiness in the future  DOD, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap (Alexandria, VA: June 2014)  The effects of climate change on Central America and the Caribbean may increase migration and exacerbate poverty rates, as the National Intelligence Council has reported  The climate in Central America and the Caribbean is predicted to be warmer and dryer  The Caribbean’s extensive coastlines and low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise and an increase in sudden-onset disasters, including hurricanes and storm surges  Drought is a particular concern in Central America, where declines in rainfall have reduced crop yields and threatened livelihoods in recent years  Some evidence shows that drought in parts of Central America has contributed to migration north, including to the United States  Population growth, especially in coastal cities, has increased the number of people at risk during hurricane season, and the number and intensity of hurricanes have grown in recent years  Some attribute the increase in intensity to higher sea surface temperatures caused by climate change  However, there remains debate about long term hurricane trends  Recent hurricanes have caused displacement, and significant losses and damages—including to infrastructure—across the region  The depletion of coral reefs and mangrove trees, natural barriers to coastal erosion and flooding, has exacerbated vulnerability to storms in coastal areas  Climate change is likely to have negative impacts on tourism in the Caribbean, where the industry is an important part of the economy, according to Inter-American Development Bank  Climate change impacts on the economy may make it increasingly difficult for governments to reduce poverty and move towards environmental sustainability  Haiti’s geography, location, and high poverty rates make the country especially vulnerable  Haiti is highly vulnerable to climate change effects, partly due to its long coastline Hurricanes routinely make landfall in the country, and increases in rainfall and wind speeds associated with hurricanes are likely  Severe hurricanes, including Hurricane Matthew in September 2016, have hit Haiti in recent years  Hurricane Matthew was the first category 4 storm in Haiti since 1964  Damage from severe flooding and severe winds during the hurricane affected over 2 million people and created significant food security and public health challenges  Significant deforestation has further exacerbated Haiti’s vulnerability to hurricanes, as trees previously provided a natural barrier to the erosion that strong winds and more rainfall can cause  Rising temperature and highly variable rainfall have led to extreme drought and flash flooding, according to the U S  Agency for International Development (USAID) 32 2 These trends decrease crop yields, affecting the livelihoods of farmers, and threaten water access  Projected increase in temperature and decreases in rainfall are likely to intensify drought in Haiti’s interior  USAID, Haiti: Environment and Climate Change Fact Sheet (January 2016)  Migration Trends Slow-onset climate events, such as drought, and rising sea levels, and sudden-onset events, including earthquakes, affect Haiti, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM)  Haiti is also particularly exposed to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, which can lead to displacement  In January 2010, a catastrophic earthquake in Haiti killed an estimated 230,000 people and left close to 1 5 million people homeless  According to IOM, the recurrence of environmental disruptions increases risks and vulnerabilities  When Hurricane Sandy struck Haiti in October 2012, the country had still not recovered from the 2010 earthquake  The worsening of climate change effects around the world, particularly in low-income countries, may increase the number of people wanting to immigrate to the United States, where approximately 700,000 Haitians live today Remittances from family members living outside Haiti make up a significant portion of the economy, at 24 7 percent of GDP  The majority of these remittances come from the United States, as we have previously reported 34 4Remittances may support resilience to climate change effects as migrants send money home for disaster recovery and adaptation  Challenges in Stability and Security Haiti, the poorest country in the western hemisphere, has experienced political instability for most of its history, and ranks 12th of 178 on the Fragile States Index  The government has a low capacity to respond to additional challenges like those related to climate change, according to USAID  The Ministry of Environment, for example, is a relatively new organization within the Haitian government, and local and regional governments have a limited ability to enforce environmental laws and regulations  The United States has provided substantial aid to Haiti, both in disaster response and broader development projects  Official development assistance for Haiti in 2015, for instance, totaled slightly more than $1 billion  According to a January 2018 UN report, 2 8 million people were still in need of humanitarian assistance  GAO, Remittances To Fragile Countries: Treasury Should Assess Risks from Shifts to Non-Banking Channels, GAO-18-313 (Washington, D C , March 8, 2018)  The Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (State/OES) provided about $78 million in adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative for eight projects for fiscal years 2014 through 2017 (see table 2)  The Global Climate Change Initiative was established in 2010 to promote resilient, low- emission development, and integrate climate change considerations into U S  foreign assistance and was divided into three main programmatic initiatives: (1) Adaptation assistance, (2) Clean Energy assistance, and (3) Sustainable Landscapes assistance  The primary purpose of these contributions to the LDCF was to address the adaptation needs of the least developed countries, which are especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change  The LDCF financed the preparation and implementation of National Adaptation Programs of Action, which identify a country’s priorities for adaptation actions  Initial grant to the National Adaptation Plans Global Network  The network is focused on increasing the capacity of national and subnational governments to identify and assess climate risks, integrate these risk considerations in sector planning, develop a pipeline of projects to address risks, identify and secure funding for projects, and track progress toward resilience targets  Colombia, East Caribbean (Guyana, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines), Ethiopia, Peru, South Africa, Uganda, West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Togo) and, under current consideration, East Caribbean (Dominica, Suriname), and Pacific (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) The cost amendment intensified the technical support on National Adaptation Plans to select countries dependent upon specific country adaption needs  In addition, the cost amendment continued the learning and progress from the initial grant  Implemented through the Department of Treasury, this funding supported a Treasury grant to the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative Multi Donor Trust Fund at the World Bank  This activity established the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Foundation and the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company, among other things  The goal of PIER is to increase private sector investment in resilience to climate change in eight developing countries  The first phase of the project will assess and identify opportunities for private investment in resilience, as well as build public and private capacity for climate risk assessment in all the countries  In the second phase, public and private sector partners will develop and pilot climate risk-reduction investment models in four of the countries  The third phase will publicize the piloted investment models and lessons learned among the eight countries  Implemented through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this activity aims to implement a capacity-building partnership with India to promote effective climate resilient decision making at national, state, and local levels  In addition to the contacts named above, the following individuals made key contributions to this report: Miriam Carroll Fenton (Assistant Director), Kristy Williams (Assistant Director), Rachel Girshick (Analyst-in-Charge), Nancy Santucci, Miranda Cohen, Aldo Salerno, Neil Doherty, and Judith Williams  Alexander Welsh, Justin Fisher, and Joseph Thompson provided technical and other support  Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Needs to Better Incorporate Adaptation into Planning and Collaboration at Overseas Installations  GAO-18-206  Washington, D C : November 13, 2017  Compacts Of Free Association: Actions Needed to Prepare for The Transition of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands to Trust Fund Income  GAO-18-415  Washington, D C : May 17, 2018  Remittances to Fragile Countries: Treasury Should Assess Risks from Shifts to Non-Banking Channels  GAO-18-313  Washington, D C : March 8, 2018  Syrian Refugees: U S  Agencies Conduct Financial Oversight Activities for Humanitarian Assistance but Should Strengthen Monitoring  GAO-18-58  Washington, D C : October 31, 2017  International Food Assistance: Agencies Should Ensure Timely Documentation of Required Market Analyses and Assess Local Markets for Program Effects  GAO-17-640  Washington, D C : July 13, 2017  High-Risk Series: Progress on Many High-Risk Areas, While Substantial Efforts Needed on Others  GAO-17-317  Washington, D C : February 15, 2017  Federal Disaster Assistance: Federal Departments and Agencies Obligated at Least $277 6 Billion during Fiscal Years 2005 through 2014  GAO-16-797  Washington, D C : September 22, 2016  Coast Guard: Arctic Strategy Is Underway, but Agency Could Better Assess How Its Actions Mitigate Known Arctic Capability Gaps  GAO-16-453  Washington, D C : July 12, 2016  Climate Information: A National System Could Help Federal, State, Local, and Private Sector Decision Makers Use Climate Information  GAO-16-37  Washington, D C : November 23, 2015  Hurricane Sandy: An Investment Strategy Could Help the Federal Government Enhance National Resilience for Future Disasters  GAO-15-515  Washington, D C : July 30, 2015  High-Risk Series: An Update  GAO-15-290  Washington, D C : February 11, 2015  Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government  GAO-14-704G  Washington, D C : September 10, 2014  Combating Terrorism: U S  Efforts in Northwest Africa Would Be Strengthened by Enhanced Program Management  GAO-14-518  Washington, D C : June 24, 2014  Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Can Improve Infrastructure Planning and Processes to Better Account for Potential Impacts  GAO-14-446  Washington, D C : May 30, 2014  Extreme Weather Events: Limiting Federal Fiscal Exposure and Increasing the Nation’s Resilience  GAO-14-364T  Washington, D C : February 12, 2014  Climate Change: State Should Further Improve Its Reporting on Financial Support to Developing Countries to Meet Future Requirements and Guidelines  GAO-13-829  Washington, D C : September 19, 2013  High-Risk Series: An Update  GAO-13-283  Washington, D C : February 14, 2013  International Climate Change Assessments: Federal Agencies Should Improve Reporting and Oversight of U S  Funding  GAO-12-43  Washington, D C : November 17, 2011  Climate Change Adaptation: Federal Efforts to Provide Information Could Help Government Decision Making  GAO-12-238T  Washington, D C : November 16, 2011  Foreign Relation: Kwajalein Atoll Is the Key U S  Defense Interest in Two Micronesian Nations, GAO-02-119  Washington D C : January 22, 2002 

ground_truth: The Congressional Review Act (CRA) allows Congress to review certain types of federal agency actions that fall under the statutory category of "rules." The CRA requires that agencies report their rules to Congress and provides special procedures under which Congress can consider legislation to overturn those rules. A joint resolution of disapproval will become effective once both houses of Congress pass a joint resolution and it is signed by the President, or if Congress overrides the President's veto. The CRA generally adopts a broad definition of the word "rule" from the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), defining a rule as "the whole or a part of an agency statement of general or particular applicability and future effect designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy or describing the organization, procedure, or practice requirements of an agency." The CRA, however, provides three exceptions to this broad definition: any rule of particular applicability, including a rule that approves or prescribes for the future rates, wages, prices, services, or allowances therefor, corporate or financial structures, reorganizations, mergers, or acquisitions thereof, or accounting practices or disclosures bearing on any of the foregoing; any rule relating to agency management or personnel; or any rule of agency organization, procedure, or practice that does not substantially affect the rights or obligations of non-agency parties. The class of rules the CRA covers is broader than the category of rules that are subject to the APA's notice-and-comment requirements. As such, some agency actions, such as guidance documents, that are not subject to notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures may still be considered rules under the CRA and thus could be overturned using the CRA's procedures. The effect of Congress disapproving a rule that is not subject to notice-and-comment rulemaking may be subject to debate, given that such rules are generally viewed to lack any legal effect in the first place. Nonetheless, the CRA does encompass some such rules, as highlighted by the recent enactment of a CRA resolution overturning a bulletin from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that was not subject to the notice-and-comment procedures. Even if an agency action falls under the CRA's definition of "rule," however, the expedited procedures for considering legislation to overturn the rule only become available when the agency submits the rule to Congress. In many cases in which agencies take actions that fall under the scope of a "rule" but have not gone through notice-and-comment rulemaking procedures, agencies fail to submit those rules. Thus, questions have arisen as to how Members can avail themselves of the CRA's special fast-track procedures if the agency has not submitted the action to Congress. To protect its prerogative to review agency rules under the CRA, Congress and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) have developed an ad hoc process in which Members can request that GAO provide a formal legal opinion on whether a particular agency action qualifies as a rule under the CRA. If GAO concludes that the action in question falls within the CRA's definition of "rule," Congress has treated the publication of the GAO opinion in the Congressional Record as constructive submission of the rule. In other words, an affirmative opinion from GAO can allow Congress to use the CRA procedures to consider legislation overturning an agency action despite the agency not submitting that action to Congress.

prompt_front: You are given two reports by the government agency.



Question: Write a one-page summary of the report 2.

Report 1: The Federal Reserve's (the Fed's) responsibilities as the nation's central bank fall into four main categories: monetary policy, provision of emergency liquidity through the lender of last resort function, supervision of certain types of banks and other financial firms for safety and soundness, and provision of payment system services to financial firms and the government  Congress has delegated responsibility for monetary policy to the Fed, but retains oversight responsibilities to ensure that the Fed is adhering to its statutory mandate of "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates " The Fed has defined stable prices as a longer-run goal of 2% inflation—the change in overall prices, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index  By contrast, the Fed states that "it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision " Monetary policy can be used to stabilize business cycle fluctuations (alternating periods of economic expansions and recessions) in the short run, while it mainly affects inflation in the long run  The Fed's conventional tool for monetary policy is to target the federal funds rate —the overnight, interbank lending rate  This report provides an overview of how monetary policy works and recent developments, a summary of the Fed's actions following the financial crisis, and ends with a brief overview of the Fed's regulatory responsibilities  In December 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis and the "Great Recession," the Fed lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 0% to 0 25%  This was the first time rates were ever lowered to what is referred to as the zero lower bound   The recession ended in 2009, but as the economic recovery consistently proved weaker than expected in the years that followed, the Fed repeatedly pushed back its time frame for raising interest rates  As a result, the economic expansion was in its seventh year and the unemployment rate was already near the Fed's estimate of full employment when it began raising rates on December 16, 2015  This was a departure from past practice—in the previous two economic expansions, the Fed began raising rates within three years of the preceding recession ending  Since then, the Fed has continued to raise rates in a series of steps to incrementally tighten monetary policy  The Fed raised rates once in 2016, three times in 2017, and four times in 2018, by 0 25 percentage points each time  The Fed has stated that "some further gradual increases in     the federal funds rate" are necessary to fulfill its mandate  The Fed describes its plans as "data dependent," meaning they would be altered if actual employment or inflation deviate from its forecast  Although monetary policy is now less stimulative than it had been at the zero lower bound, the Fed is still adding stimulus to the economy as long as the federal funds rate is below what economists call the "neutral rate" (or the long-run equilibrium rate)  To illustrate, the federal funds rate is currently similar to the inflation rate, meaning that the real (i e , inflation-adjusted) federal funds rate is around zero  However, there is uncertainty as to what constitutes a neutral rate today  By historical standards, a zero real interest rate would be well below the neutral rate, but the neutral rate appears to have fallen following the financial crisis, so that current rates may be close to the neutral rate today  Typically, the Fed keeps interest rates below the neutral rate when the economy is operating below full employment, at neutral levels when the economy is near full employment, and above the neutral rate when the economy is at risk of overheating  Indeed, the Fed identifies this as one of its "three key principles of good monetary policy " Because of lags between changes in interest rates and their economic effects, in the past, the Fed has often preemptively changed its monetary policy stance before the economy reaches the state that the Fed is anticipating  In this business cycle, the Fed has maintained a (progressively less) stimulative monetary policy throughout the expansion, boosting economic activity  In one sense, this policy could be viewed as having successfully delivered on the Fed's mandated goals of full employment and stable prices  The unemployment rate has been below 5% since 2015 and is now lower than the rate believed to be consistent with full employment  Other labor market measures are also consistent with full employment, with the possible exception of the still-low labor force participation rate  Economic theory posits that lower unemployment will lead to higher inflation in the short run, but inflation has not proven responsive to lower unemployment in recent years  After remaining persistently below the Fed's 2% target from mid-2012 to early 2018 as measured by core PCE, inflation has remained around 2% in 2018 as measured by headline or core PCE  Economic growth has also picked up beginning in the second quarter of 2017, after being persistently low by historical standards throughout the expansion  Contributing to the 2018 growth acceleration, a more expansionary fiscal policy (larger structural budget deficit) added more stimulus to the economy in the short run  Two notable policy changes contributing to fiscal stimulus in 2018 were the 2017 tax cuts ( P L  115-97 ) and the boost to discretionary spending in FY2018 and FY2019 agreed to in P L  115-123   The Fed did little to offset this fiscal stimulus, as the pace of monetary tightening in 2018 was only slightly faster than in 2017  Despite strong economic data (which is only available with a lag), the Fed announced in January 2019 that it would be "patient" before raising rates again in light of increased economic uncertainty and financial volatility  The Fed's intended policy path poses risks  If the Fed waits too long to raise rates again, the economy could overheat, resulting in high inflation and posing risk to financial stability  As an example of how overly stimulative monetary policy can lead to the latter, critics contend that the Fed contributed to the precrisis housing bubble by keeping interest rates too low for too long during the economic recovery starting in 2001  Critics see these risks as outweighing any marginal benefit associated with monetary stimulus when the economy is already so close to full employment  Raising rates more quickly would also provide more "headroom" for the Fed to lower rates more aggressively during the next economic downturn  The potential percentage point reduction in rates before hitting the zero bound is currently smaller than the rate cuts that the Fed has undertaken in past recessions  Alternatively, there is uncertainty about whether strong growth, low unemployment, inflation around 2%, and the generally benign economic environment will continue  Economic expansions do not "die of old age"; nevertheless, the current expansion is already the second longest on record and cannot last forever  The flattening of the yield curve (i e , long-term Treasury yields are similar to short-term Treasury yields) is seen by some as a warning signal that rates are too high  Although there is a risk of stimulative monetary policy causing the economy to overheat, there is also a risk that tightening too quickly could be harmful if the economy slows  Some critics would prefer clear evidence that inflation is above the Fed's target or financial conditions are unstable before the Fed raises rates again  Monetary policy refers to the actions the Fed undertakes to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to promote the goals mandated by Congress, a stable price level and maximum sustainable employment  Because the expectations of households as consumers and businesses as purchasers of capital goods exert an important influence on the major portion of spending in the United States, and because these expectations are influenced in important ways by the Fed's actions, a broader definition of monetary policy would include the directives, policies, statements, economic forecasts, and other Fed actions, especially those made by or associated with the chairman of its Board of Governors, who is the nation's central banker  The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets every six weeks to choose a federal funds target and sometimes meets on an ad hoc basis if it wants to change the target between regularly scheduled meetings  The FOMC is composed of the 7 Fed governors, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and 4 of the other 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents serving on a rotating basis  The Fed targets the federal funds rate to carry out monetary policy  The federal funds rate is determined in the private market for overnight reserves of depository institutions (called the federal funds market)  At the end of a given period, usually a day, depository institutions must calculate how many dollars of reserves they want or need to hold against their reservable liabilities (deposits)  Some institutions may discover a reserve shortage (too few reservable assets relative to those they want to hold), whereas others may have reservable assets in excess of their wants  These reserves can be borrowed and lent on an overnight basis in a private market called the federal funds market  The interest rate in this market is called the federal funds rate  If it wishes to expand money and credit, the Fed will lower the target, which encourages more lending activity and, thus, greater demand in the economy  Conversely, if it wishes to tighten money and credit, the Fed will raise the target  The federal funds rate is linked to the interest rates that banks and other financial institutions charge for loans  Thus, whereas the Fed may directly influence only a very short-term interest rate, this rate influences other longer-term rates  However, this relationship is far from being on a one-to-one basis because longer-term market rates are influenced not only by what the Fed is doing today, but also by what it is expected to do in the future and by what inflation is expected to be in the future  This fact highlights the importance of expectations in explaining market interest rates  For that reason, a growing body of literature urges the Fed to be very transparent in explaining what its policy is, will be, and in making a commitment to adhere to that policy  The Fed has responded to this literature and is increasingly transparent in explaining its policy measures and what these measures are expected to accomplish  The Federal Reserve uses two methods to maintain its target for the federal funds rate: The Fed can also change the federal funds rate by changing reserve requirements, which specify what portion of customer deposits (primarily checking accounts) banks must hold as vault cash or on deposit at the Fed  Thus, reserve requirements affect the liquidity available within the federal funds market  Statute sets the numerical levels of reserve requirements, although the Fed has some discretion to adjust them  Currently, banks are required to hold 0% to 10% of customer deposits that qualify as net transaction accounts in reserves, depending on the size of the bank's deposits  This tool is used rarely—the percentage was last changed in 1992  Each of these tools works by altering the overall liquidity available for use by the banking system, which influences the amount of assets these institutions can acquire  These assets are often called credit because they represent loans the institutions have made to businesses and households, among others  The Fed's control over monetary policy stems from its exclusive ability to alter the money supply and credit conditions more broadly  The Fed directly controls the monetary base , which is made up of currency (Federal Reserve notes) and bank reserves  The size of the monetary base, in turn, influences broader measures of the money supply, which include close substitutes to currency, such as demand deposits (e g , checking accounts) held at banks  The Fed's definition of monetary policy as the actions it undertakes to influence the availability and cost of money and credit suggests two ways to measure the stance of monetary policy  One is to look at the cost of money and credit as measured by the rate of interest relative to inflation (or inflation projections), and the other is to look at the growth of money and credit itself  Thus, it is possible to look at either interest rates or the growth in the supply of money and credit in coming to a conclusion about the current stance of monetary policy—that is, whether it is expansionary (adding stimulus to the economy), contractionary (slowing economic activity), or neutral  During the high inflation experience of the 1970s the Fed placed greater emphasis on money supply growth, but since then, most central banks including the Fed have preferred to formulate monetary policy in terms of the cost of money and credit rather than in terms of their supply  The Fed conducts monetary policy by focusing on the cost of money and credit as proxied by the federal funds rate  A simple comparison of market interest rates over time as an indicator of changes in the stance of monetary policy is potentially misleading, however  Economists call the interest rate that is essential to decisions made by households and businesses to buy capital goods the real interest rate  It is often proxied by subtracting from the market interest rate the actual or expected rate of inflation  If inflation rises and market interest rates remain the same, then real interest rates have fallen, with a similar economic effect as if market rates (called nominal rates) had fallen by the same amount with a constant inflation rate  The federal funds rate is only one of the many interest rates in the financial system that determines economic activity  For these other rates, the real rate is largely independent of the amount of money and credit over the longer run because it is determined by the interaction of saving and investment (or the demand for capital goods)  The internationalization of capital markets means that for most developed countries the relevant interaction between saving and investment that determines the real interest rate is on a global basis  Thus, real rates in the United States depend not only on U S  national saving and investment but also on the saving and investment of other countries  For that reason, national interest rates are influenced by international credit conditions and business cycles  How do changes in short-term interest rates affect the overall economy? In the short run, an expansionary monetary policy that reduces interest rates increases interest-sensitive spending, all else equal  Interest-sensitive spending includes physical investment (i e , plant and equipment) by firms, residential investment (housing construction), and consumer-durable spending (e g , automobiles and appliances) by households  As discussed in the next section, it also encourages exchange rate depreciation that causes exports to rise and imports to fall, all else equal  To reduce spending in the economy, the Fed raises interest rates and the process works in reverse  An examination of U S  economic history will show that money- and credit-induced demand expansions can have a positive effect on U S  GDP growth and total employment  The extent to which greater interest-sensitive spending results in an increase in overall spending in the economy in the short run will depend in part on how close the economy is to full employment  When the economy is near full employment, the increase in spending is likely to be dissipated through higher inflation more quickly  When the economy is far below full employment, inflationary pressures are more likely to be muted  This same history, however, also suggests that over the longer run, a more rapid rate of growth of money and credit is largely dissipated in a more rapid rate of inflation with little, if any, lasting effect on real GDP and employment  Economists have two explanations for this paradoxical behavior  First, they note that, in the short run, many economies have an elaborate system of contracts (both implicit and explicit) that makes it difficult in a short period for significant adjustments to take place in wages and prices in response to a more rapid growth of money and credit  Second, they note that expectations for one reason or another are slow to adjust to the longer-run consequences of major changes in monetary policy  This slow adjustment also adds rigidities to wages and prices  Because of these rigidities, changes in the growth of money and credit that change aggregate demand can have a large initial effect on output and employment, albeit with a policy lag of six to eight quarters before the broader economy fully responds to monetary policy measures  Over the longer run, as contracts are renegotiated and expectations adjust, wages and prices rise in response to the change in demand and much of the change in output and employment is undone  Thus, monetary policy can matter in the short run but be fairly neutral for GDP growth and employment in the longer run  In societies in which high rates of inflation are endemic, price adjustments are very rapid  During the final stages of very rapid inflations, called hyperinflation, the ability of more rapid rates of growth of money and credit to alter GDP growth and employment is virtually nonexistent, if not negative  Either fiscal policy (defined here as changes in the structural budget deficit, caused by policy changes to government spending or taxes) or monetary policy can be used to alter overall spending in the economy  However, there are several important differences to consider between the two  First, economic conditions change rapidly, and in practice monetary policy can be more nimble than fiscal policy  The Fed meets every six weeks to consider changes in interest rates and can call an unscheduled meeting any time  Large changes to fiscal policy typically occur once a year at most  Once a decision to alter fiscal policy has been made, the proposal must travel through a long and arduous legislative process that can last months before it can become law, whereas monetary policy changes are made instantly  Both monetary and fiscal policy measures are thought to take more than a year to achieve their full impact on the economy due to pipeline effects  In the case of monetary policy, interest rates throughout the economy may change rapidly, but it takes longer for economic actors to change their spending patterns in response  For example, in response to a lower interest rate, a business must put together a loan proposal, apply for a loan, receive approval for the loan, and then put the funds to use  In the case of fiscal policy, once legislation has been enacted, it may take some time for authorized spending to be outlayed  An agency must approve projects and select and negotiate with contractors before funds can be released  In the case of transfers or tax cuts, recipients must receive the funds and then alter their private spending patterns before the economy-wide effects are felt  For both monetary and fiscal policy, further rounds of private and public decisionmaking must occur before multiplier or ripple effects are fully felt  Second, monetary policy is determined based only on the Fed's mandate, whereas fiscal policy is determined based on competing political goals  Fiscal policy changes have macroeconomic implications regardless of whether that was policymakers' primary intent  Political constraints have prevented increases in budget deficits from being fully reversed during expansions  Over the course of the business cycle, aggregate spending in the economy can be expected to be too high as often as it is too low  This means that stabilization policy should be tightened as often as it is loosened, yet increasing the budget deficit has proven to be much more popular than implementing the spending cuts or tax increases necessary to reduce it  As a result, the budget has been in deficit in all but five years since 1961, which has led to an accumulation of federal debt that gives policymakers less leeway to potentially undertake a robust expansionary fiscal policy, if needed, in the future  By contrast, the Fed is more insulated from political pressures, as discussed in the previous section, and experience shows that it is willing to raise or lower interest rates  Third, the long-run consequences of fiscal and monetary policy differ  Expansionary fiscal policy creates federal debt that must be serviced by future generations  Some of this debt will be "owed to ourselves," but some (presently, about half) will be owed to foreigners  To the extent that expansionary fiscal policy crowds out private investment, it leaves future national income lower than it otherwise would have been  Monetary policy does not have this effect on generational equity, although different levels of interest rates will affect borrowers and lenders differently  Furthermore, the government faces a budget constraint that limits the scope of expansionary fiscal policy—it can only issue debt as long as investors believe the debt will be honored, even if economic conditions require larger deficits to restore equilibrium  Fourth, openness of an economy to highly mobile capital flows changes the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy  Expansionary fiscal policy would be expected to lead to higher interest rates, all else equal, which would attract foreign capital looking for a higher rate of return, causing the value of the dollar to rise  Foreign capital can only enter the United States on net through a trade deficit  Thus, higher foreign capital inflows lead to higher imports, which reduce spending on domestically produced substitutes and lower spending on exports  The increase in the trade deficit would cancel out the expansionary effects of the increase in the budget deficit to some extent (in theory, entirely if capital is perfectly mobile)  Expansionary monetary policy would have the opposite effect—lower interest rates would cause capital to flow abroad in search of higher rates of return elsewhere, causing the value of the dollar to fall  Foreign capital outflows would reduce the trade deficit through an increase in spending on exports and domestically produced import substitutes  Thus, foreign capital flows would (tend to) magnify the expansionary effects of monetary policy


Report 2:  Fifth, fiscal policy can be targeted to specific recipients  In the case of normal open market operations, monetary policy cannot  This difference could be considered an advantage or a disadvantage  On the one hand, policymakers could target stimulus to aid the sectors of the economy most in need or most likely to respond positively to stimulus  On the other hand, stimulus could be allocated on the basis of political or other noneconomic factors that reduce the macroeconomic effectiveness of the stimulus  As a result, both fiscal and monetary policy have distributional implications, but the latter's are largely incidental whereas the former's can be explicitly chosen  In cases in which economic activity is extremely depressed, monetary policy may lose some of its effectiveness  When interest rates become extremely low, interest-sensitive spending may no longer be very responsive to further rate cuts  Furthermore, interest rates cannot be lowered below zero so traditional monetary policy is limited by this "zero lower bound " In this scenario, fiscal policy may be more effective  As is discussed in the next section, some argue that the U S  economy experienced this scenario following the recent financial crisis  Of course, using monetary and fiscal policy to stabilize the economy are not mutually exclusive policy options  But because of the Fed's independence from Congress and the Administration, the two policy options are not always coordinated  If Congress and the Fed were to choose compatible fiscal and monetary policies, respectively, then the economic effects would be more powerful than if either policy were implemented in isolation  For example, if stimulative monetary and fiscal policies were implemented, the resulting economic stimulus would be larger than if one policy were stimulative and the other were neutral  Alternatively, if Congress and the Fed were to select incompatible policies, these policies could partially negate each other  For example, a stimulative fiscal policy and contractionary monetary policy may end up having little net effect on aggregate demand (although there may be considerable distributional effects)  Thus, when fiscal and monetary policymakers disagree in the current system, they can potentially choose policies with the intent of offsetting each other's actions  Whether this arrangement is better or worse for the economy depends on what policies are chosen  If one actor chooses inappropriate policies, then the lack of coordination allows the other actor to try to negate its effects  When the United States experienced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Fed undertook increasingly unprecedented steps in an attempt to restore financial stability  These steps included reducing the federal funds rate to the zero lower bound, providing direct financial assistance to financial firms, and "quantitative easing " These unconventional policy decisions continue to have consequences for monetary policy today, as the Fed embarks on monetary policy "normalization " The bursting of the housing bubble led to the onset of a financial crisis that affected both depository institutions and other segments of the financial sector involved with housing finance  As the delinquency rates on home mortgages rose to record numbers, financial firms exposed to the mortgage market suffered capital losses and lost access to liquidity  The contagious nature of this development was soon obvious as other types of loans and credit became adversely affected  This, in turn, spilled over into the broader economy, as the lack of credit soon had a negative effect on both production and aggregate demand  In December 2007, the economy entered a recession  As the housing slump's spillover effects to the financial system, as well as its international scope, became apparent, the Fed responded by reducing the federal funds target and the discount rate  Beginning on September 18, 2007, and ending on December 16, 2008, the federal funds target was reduced from 5 25% to a range between 0% and 0 25%, where it remained until December 2015  Economists call this the zero lower bound to signify that once the federal funds rate is lowered to zero, conventional open market operations cannot be used to provide further stimulus  The Fed attempted to achieve additional monetary stimulus at the zero bound through a pledge to keep the federal funds rate low for an extended period of time, which has been called forward guidance or forward commitment   The decision to maintain a target interest rate near zero was unprecedented  First, short-term interest rates have never before been reduced to zero in the history of the Federal Reserve  Second, the Fed waited much longer than usual to begin tightening monetary policy in the current recovery  For example, in the previous two expansions, the Fed began raising rates less than three years after the preceding recession ended  With liquidity problems persisting as the federal funds rate was reduced, it appeared that the traditional transmission mechanism linking monetary policy to activity in the broader economy was not working  Monetary authorities became concerned that the liquidity provided to the banking system was not reaching other parts of the financial system  As noted above, using only traditional monetary policy tools, additional monetary stimulus cannot be provided once the federal funds rate has reached its zero bound  To circumvent this problem, the Fed decided to use nontraditional methods to provide additional monetary policy stimulus  First, the Federal Reserve introduced a number of emergency credit facilities to provide increased liquidity directly to financial firms and markets  The first facility was introduced in December 2007, and several were added after the worsening of the crisis in September 2008  These facilities were designed to fill perceived gaps between open market operations and the discount window, and most of them were designed to provide short-term loans backed by collateral that exceeded the value of the loan  A number of the recipients were nonbanks that are outside the regulatory umbrella of the Federal Reserve; this marked the first time that the Fed had lent to nonbanks since the Great Depression  The Fed authorized these actions under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, a seldom-used emergency provision that allowed it to extend credit to nonbank financial institutions and to nonfinancial firms as well  The Fed provided assistance through liquidity facilities, which included both the traditional discount window and the newly created emergency facilities mentioned above, and through direct support to prevent the failure of two specific institutions, American International Group (AIG) and Bear Stearns  The amount of assistance provided was an order of magnitude larger than normal Fed lending, as shown in Figure 1   Total assistance from the Federal Reserve at the beginning of August 2007 was approximately $234 million provided through liquidity facilities, with no direct support given  In mid-December 2008, this number reached a high of $1 6 trillion, with a near-high of $108 billion given in direct support  From that point on, it fell steadily  Assistance provided through liquidity facilities fell below $100 billion in February 2010, when many facilities were allowed to expire, and support to specific institutions fell below $100 billion in January 2011  The last loan from the crisis was repaid on October 29, 2014  Central bank liquidity swaps (temporary currency exchanges between the Fed and central foreign banks) are the only facility created during the crisis still active, but they have not been used on a large scale since 2012  All assistance through expired facilities has been fully repaid with interest  In 2010, the Dodd-Frank Act changed Section 13(3) to rule out direct support to specific institutions in the future  From the introduction of its first emergency lending facility in December 2007 to the worsening of the crisis in September 2008, the Fed sterilized the effects of lending on its balance sheet (i e , prevented the balance sheet from growing) by selling an offsetting amount of Treasury securities  After September 2008, assistance exceeded remaining Treasury holdings, and the Fed allowed its balance sheet to grow  Between September 2008 and November 2008, the Fed's balance sheet more than doubled in size, increasing from less than $1 trillion to more than $2 trillion  The loans and other assistance provided by the Federal Reserve to banks and nonbank institutions are considered assets on this balance sheet because they represent money owed to the Fed  With the federal funds rate at its zero bound and direct lending falling as financial conditions began to normalize in 2009, the Fed faced the decision of whether to try to provide additional monetary stimulus through unconventional measures  It did so through two unconventional tools—large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing) and forward guidance  With short-term rates constrained by the zero bound, the Fed hoped to reduce long-term rates through large-scale asset purchases, which were popularly referred to as quantitative easing (QE)  Between 2009 and 2014, the Fed undertook three rounds of QE, buying U S  Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS)  These securities now comprise most of the assets on the Fed's balance sheet  To understand the effect of quantitative easing on the economy, it is first necessary to describe its effect on the Fed's balance sheet  In 2009, the Fed's emergency lending declined rapidly as market conditions stabilized, which would have caused the balance sheet to decline if the Fed took no other action  Instead, asset purchases under the first round of QE (QE1) offset the decline in lending, and from November 2008 to November 2010, the overall size of the Fed's balance sheet did not vary by much  Its composition changed because of QE1, however—the amount of Fed loans outstanding fell to less than $50 billion at the end of 2010, whereas holdings of securities rose from less than $500 billion in November 2008 to more than $2 trillion in November 2010  The second round of QE, QE2, increased the Fed's balance sheet from $2 3 trillion in November 2010 to $2 9 trillion in mid-2011  It remained around that level until September 2012, when it began rising for the duration of the third round, QE3  It was about $4 5 trillion (comprised of $2 5 trillion of Treasury securities, $1 7 trillion MBS, and $0 4 trillion of agency debt) when QE3 ended in October 2014, and has remained at that level since  Table 1 summarizes the Fed's QE purchases  In total, the Fed's balance sheet increased by more than $2 5 trillion over the course of the three rounds of QE, making it about five times larger than it was before the crisis  This increase in the Fed's assets must be matched by a corresponding increase in the liabilities on its balance sheet  The Fed's liabilities mostly take the form of currency, bank reserves, and cash deposited by the U S  Treasury at the Fed  QE has mainly resulted in an increase in bank reserves, from about $46 billion in August 2008 to $820 billion at the end of 2008  Since October 2009, bank reserves have exceeded $1 trillion, and they have been between $2 5 trillion and $2 8 trillion since 2014  The increase in bank reserves can be seen as the inevitable outcome of the increase in assets held by the Fed because the bank reserves, in effect, financed the Fed's asset purchases and loan programs  Reserves increase because when the Fed makes loans or purchases assets, it credits the proceeds to the recipients' reserve accounts at the Fed  The intended purpose of QE was to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates  Purchasing long-term Treasury securities and MBS should directly reduce the rates on those securities, all else equal  The hope is that a reduction in those rates feeds through to private borrowing rates throughout the economy, stimulating spending on interest-sensitive consumer durables, housing, and business investment in plant and equipment  Indeed, Treasury and mortgage rates have been unusually low since the crisis compared with the past few decades, although the timing of declines in those rates does not match up closely to the timing of asset purchases  Determining whether QE reduced rates more broadly and stimulated interest-sensitive spending requires controlling for other factors, such as the weak economy, which tends to reduce both rates and interest-sensitive spending  The increase in the Fed's balance sheet has the potential to be inflationary because bank reserves are a component of the portion of the money supply controlled by the Fed (called the monetary base ), which grew at an unprecedented pace during QE  In practice, overall measures of the money supply have not grown as quickly as the monetary base, and inflation has remained below the Fed's goal of 2% for most of the period since 2008  The growth in the monetary base has not translated into higher inflation because bank reserves have mostly remained deposited at the Fed and have not led to increased lending or asset purchases by banks  Another concern is that by holding large amounts of MBS, the Fed is allocating credit to the housing sector, putting the rest of the economy at a disadvantage compared with that sector  Advocates of MBS purchases note that housing was the sector of the economy most in need of stabilization, given the nature of the crisis (this argument becomes less persuasive as the housing market continues to rebound); that MBS markets are more liquid than most alternatives, limiting the potential for the Fed's purchases to be disruptive; and that the Fed is legally permitted to purchase few other assets, besides Treasury securities  On October 29, 2014, the Fed announced that it would stop making large-scale asset purchases at the end of the month  Now that QE is completed, attention has turned to the Fed's "exit strategy" from QE and zero interest rates  The Fed laid out its plans to normalize monetary policy in a statement in September 2014  It plans to continue implementing monetary policy by targeting the federal funds rate  The basic challenge to doing so is that the Fed cannot effectively alter the federal funds rate by altering reserve levels (as it did before the crisis) because QE has flooded the market with excess bank reserves  In other words, in the presence of more than $2 trillion in bank reserves, the market-clearing federal funds rate is close to zero even if the Fed would like it to be higher  The most straightforward way to return to normal monetary policy would be to remove those excess reserves by shrinking the balance sheet through asset sales  The Fed does not intend to sell any securities, however  Instead, it is gradually reducing the balance sheet by ceasing to roll over securities as they mature, which began in September 2017—almost three years after QE ended  Initially, it allowed only $6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion of MBS to run off each month, which was gradually increased to $30 billion of Treasuries and $20 billion of MBS per month, where it will remain until normalization is completed  The Fed believes that it would only cease shrinking the balance sheet or use QE again in the future if it its ability to stimulate the economy using reductions in the federal funds rate were insufficient  The Fed intends to ultimately reduce the balance sheet until it holds "no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively " The Fed has stated that it foresees a balance sheet size that is consistent with this goal will be larger than it was before the crisis  In part, that is because other liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet are larger—there is more currency in circulation now than there was before the crisis, and the Treasury has kept larger balances on average in its account at the Fed  But the balance sheet will also be significantly larger because the Fed decided in January 2019 to continue using its new method of targeting the federal funds rate even after normalization is completed  Under the new method, the federal funds rate is not determined by supply and demand in the market for bank reserves, and the Fed would prefer to maintain abundant bank reserves so that it does not have to use open market operations to respond to changes in banks' demand for reserves  By contrast, if it went back to the pre-crisis method of targeting the federal funds rate, only minimal excess reserve balances would be necessary (but perhaps more than before the crisis), so its balance sheet could be much smaller  The Fed has not yet announced when the wind-down will be completed or how large the balance sheet would be upon completion, but the January 2019 FOMC minutes noted the wind-down could be completed as soon as this year  In that case, the balance sheet would not be much smaller than its current size of $4 trillion when normalization is completed—more than four times larger than its pre-crisis size  Although the Fed has stated that it intends to eventually stop holding MBS, the Fed would still have sizable MBS holdings in 2025, according to projections from the New York Fed  In order to raise the federal funds rate in the presence of large reserves, the Fed has raised the two market interest rates that are close substitutes—it has directly raised the rate it pays banks on reserves held at the Fed and used large-scale reverse repurchase agreements (repos) to alter repo rates  In 2008, Congress granted the Fed the authority to pay interest on reserves  Because banks can earn interest on excess reserves by lending them in the federal funds market or by depositing them at the Fed, raising the interest rate on bank reserves should also raise the federal funds rate  In this way, the Fed can lock up excess liquidity to avoid any potentially inflationary effects because reserves kept at the Fed cannot be put to use by banks to finance activity in the broader economy  In practice, the interest rate that the Fed has paid banks on reserves has been slightly higher than the federal funds rate, which some have criticized as a subsidy to banks  Reverse repos are another tool for draining liquidity from the system and influencing short-term market rates  They drain liquidity from the financial system because cash is transferred from market participants to the Fed  As a result, interest rates in the repo market, one of the largest short-term lending markets, rise  The Fed has long conducted open market operations through the repo market, but since 2013 it has engaged in a much larger volume of reverse repos with a broader range of nonbank counterparties, including the government-sponsored enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and certain money market funds, through a new Overnight Reverse Repurchase Operations Facility  The Fed is currently not capping the amount of overnight reverse repos offered through this facility  There has been some concern about the potential ramifications of the Fed becoming a dominant participant in this market and expanding its counterparties  For example, will counterparties only be willing to transact with the Fed in a panic, and will the Fed be exposed to counterparty risk with nonbanks that it does not regulate? The Fed has distinct roles as a central bank and a regulator  Its main regulatory responsibilities are as follows: B ank regulation   The Fed supervises bank holding companies (BHCs) and thrift holding companies (THCs), which include all large and thousands of small depositories, for safety and soundness  The Dodd-Frank Act requires the Fed to subject BHCs with more than $50 billion in consolidated assets to enhanced prudential regulation (i e , stricter standards than are applied to similar firms) in an effort to mitigate the systemic risk they pose  The Fed is also the prudential regulator of U S  branches of foreign banks and state banks that have elected to become members of the Federal Reserve System  Often in concert with the other banking regulators, it promulgates rules and supervisory guidelines that apply to banks in areas such as capital adequacy, and examines depository firms under its supervision to ensure that those rules are being followed and those firms are conducting business prudently  The Fed's supervisory authority includes consumer protection for banks under its jurisdiction that have $10 billion or less in assets  P rudential regulat ion of nonbank systemically important financial institutions   The Dodd-Frank Act allows the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) to designate nonbank financial firms as systemically important (SIFIs)  Designated firms are supervised by the Fed for safety and soundness  Since enactment, the number of designated firms has ranged from four, initially, to none today  R egulation of the payment system   The Fed regulates the retail and wholesale payment system for safety and soundness  It also operates parts of the payment system, such as interbank settlements and check clearing  The Dodd-Frank Act subjects payment, clearing, and settlement systems designated as systemically important by the FSOC to enhanced supervision by the Fed (along with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, depending on the type of system)  M argin requirements   The Fed sets margin requirements on the purchases of certain securities, such as stocks, in certain private transactions  The purpose of margin requirements is to mandate what proportion of the purchase can be made on credit  The Fed attempts to mitigate systemic risk and prevent financial instability through these regulatory responsibilities, as well as through its lender of last resort activities and participation on the FSOC (whose mandate is to identify risks and respond to emerging threats to financial stability)  The Fed has focused more on attempting to mitigate systemic risk through its regulations since the financial crisis, and has also restructured its internal operations to facilitate a macroprudential approach to supervision and regulation 

ground_truth: The effects of climate change, combined with other factors, may alter human migration trends across the globe, according to the International Organization for Migration. For example, climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, causing populations to move from an area. Climate change can also intensify slow-onset disasters, such as drought, crop failure, or sea level rise, potentially altering longer-term migration trends. GAO was asked to review how U.S. agencies address climate change as a potential driver of global migration. For State, USAID, and DOD, this report (1) describes executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018; (2) examines the extent to which the agencies discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in their plans and risk assessments; and (3) describes agency activities on the issue. GAO analyzed documents on administration priorities; reviewed agency plans, risk assessments, and documentation of agency activities; and interviewed agency officials. From fiscal years 2014 through 2018, a variety of executive branch actions related to climate change—such as executive orders and strategies—affected the Department of State (State), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense (DOD), including their activities that could potentially address the nexus of climate change and migration. For example, a fiscal year 2016 presidential memorandum—rescinded in 2017—required agencies to develop implementation plans to identify the potential impact of climate change on human mobility, among other things. In general, however, climate change as a driver of migration was not a focus of the executive branch actions. For example, a fiscal year 2014 executive order—also rescinded in 2017—requiring agencies to prepare for the impacts of climate change did not highlight migration as a particular concern. State, USAID, and DOD have discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in agency plans and risk assessments. For example, State and USAID required climate change risk assessments when developing country and regional strategies, and a few of the strategies reviewed by GAO identified the nexus of climate change and migration as a risk. However, State changed its approach in 2017, no longer providing missions with guidance on whether and how to include climate change risks in their integrated country strategies. In doing so, State did not include in its 2018 guidance to the missions any information on how to include climate change risks, should the missions choose to do so. Without clear guidance, State may miss opportunities to identify and address issues related to climate change as a potential driver of migration. The three agencies have been involved in climate change related activities but none were specifically focused on the nexus with global migration. For example, USAID officials said that the agency's adaptation efforts, such as its Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through Market Expansion project in Ethiopia, were the most likely to include activities, such as enhancing resilience, that can indirectly address the issue of climate change as a driver of migration. GAO recommends that State provide missions with guidance that clearly documents its process for climate change risk assessments for country strategies. In commenting on a draft of this report, State indicated that it would update its integrated country strategy guidance and will specifically note that missions have the option to provide additional information on climate resilience and related topics.