prompt_front: You are given a scientific article and a question. Answer the question as concisely as you can, using a single phrase or sentence if possible. If the question cannot be answered based on the information in the article, write "unanswerable". If the question is a yes/no question, answer "yes", "no", or "unanswerable". Do not provide any explanation.

Please answer the questions based on the text provided below. Which stock market sector achieved the best performance?
Context 1: Introduction
Natural Language Processing (NLP) has increasingly attracted the attention of the financial community  This trend can be explained by at least three major factors  The first factor refers to the business perspective  It is the economics of gaining competitive advantage using alternative sources of data and going beyond historical stock prices, thus, trading by analyzing market news automatically  The second factor is the major advancements in the technologies to collect, store, and query massive amounts of user-generated data almost in real-time  The third factor refers to the progress made by the NLP community in understanding unstructured text  Over the last decades the number of studies using NLP for financial forecasting has experienced exponential growth  According to BIBREF0 , until 2008, less than five research articles were published per year mentioning both “stock market” and “text mining” or “sentiment analysis” keywords  In 2012, this number increased to slightly more than ten articles per year  The last numbers available for 2016 indicates this has increased to sixty articles per year 
The ability to mechanically harvest the sentiment from texts using NLP has shed light on conflicting theories of financial economics  Historically, there has been two differing views on whether disagreement among market participants induces more trades  The “non-trade theorem” BIBREF1 states that assuming all market participants have common knowledge about a market event, the level of disagreement among the participants does not increase the number of trades but only leads to a revision of the market quotes  In contrast, the theoretically framework proposed in BIBREF2 advocates that disagreement among market participants increases trading volume  Using textual data from Yahoo and RagingBull com message boards to measure the dispersion of opinions (positive or negative) among traders, it was shown in BIBREF3 that disagreement among users' messages helps to predict subsequent trading volume and volatility  Similar relation between disagreement and increased trading volume was found in BIBREF4 using Twitter posts  Additionally, textual analysis is adding to the theories of medium-term/long-term momentum/reversal in stock markets BIBREF5   The unified Hong and Stein model BIBREF6 on stock's momentum/reversal proposes that investors underreact to news, causing slow price drifts, and overreact to price shocks not accompanied by news, hence inducing reversals  This theoretical predicated behaviour between price and news was systematically estimated and supported in BIBREF7 , BIBREF8 using financial media headlines and in BIBREF9 using the Consumer Confidence Index® published by The Conference Board BIBREF10   Similarly, BIBREF11 uses the Harvard IV-4 sentiment lexicon to count the occurrence of words with positive and negative connotation of the Wall Street Journal showing that negative sentiment is a good predictor of price returns and trading volumes 
Accurate models for forecasting both price returns and volatility are equally important in the financial domain  Volatility measures how wildly the asset is expected to oscillate in a given time period and is related to the second moment of the price return distribution  In general terms, forecasting price returns is relevant to take speculative positions  The volatility, on the other hand, measures the risk of these positions  On a daily basis, financial institutions need to assess the short-term risk of their portfolios  Measuring the risk is essential in many aspects  It is imperative for regulatory capital disclosures required by banking supervision bodies  Moreover, it is useful to dynamically adjust position sizing accordingly to market conditions, thus, maintaining the risk within reasonable levels 
Although, it is crucial to predict the short-term volatility from the financial markets application perspective, much of the current NLP research on volatility forecasting focus on the volatility prediction for very long-term horizons (see BIBREF12 , BIBREF13 , BIBREF14 , BIBREF15 , BIBREF16 )  Predominately, these works are built on extensions of the bag-of-words representation that has the main drawback of not capturing word order  Financial forecasting, however, requires the ability to capture semantics that is dependent upon word order  For example, the headline “Qualcomm sues Apple for contract breach” and “Apple sues Qualcomm for contract breach” trigger different responses for each stock and for the market aggregated index, however, they share the same bag-of-words representation  Additionally, these works use features from a pretrained sentiment analyis model to train the financial forecasting model  A key limitation of this process is that it requires a labelled sentiment dataset  Additionally, the error propagation is not end-to-end  In this work, we fill in the gaps of volatility prediction research in the following manner:
Related work
Previous work in BIBREF12 incorporates sections of the “Form 10-K” to predict the volatility twelve months after the report is released  They train a Support Vector Regression model on top of sparse representation (bag-of-words) with standard term weighting (e g  Term-Frequency)  This work was extended in BIBREF13 , BIBREF14 , BIBREF15 , BIBREF16 by employing the Loughran-McDonald Sentiment Word Lists BIBREF20 , which contain three lists where words are grouped by their sentiments (positive, negative and neutral)  In all these works, the textual representation is engineered using the following steps: 1) For each sentiment group, the list is expanded by retrieving 20 most similar words for each word using Word2Vec word embeddings BIBREF21   2) Finally, each 10-K document is represented using the expanded lists of words  The weight of each word in this sparse representation is defined using Information Retrieval (IR) methods such as term-frequency (tf) and term-frequency with inverted document frequency (tfidf)  Particularly, BIBREF16 shows that results can be improved using enhanced IR methods and projecting each sparse feature into a dense space using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) 
The works described above ( BIBREF13 , BIBREF14 , BIBREF15 , BIBREF16 ) target long-horizon volatility predictions (one year or quarterly BIBREF16 )  In particular, BIBREF16 and BIBREF15 uses market data (price) features along with the textual representation of the 10-K reports  These existing works that employ multi-modal learning BIBREF22 are based on a late fusion approach  For example, stacking ensembles to take into account the price and text predictions BIBREF16   In contrast, our end-to-end trained model can learn the joint distribution of both price and text 
Predicting the price direction rather than the volatility was the focus in BIBREF23   They extracted sentiment words from Twitter posts to build a time series of collective Profile of Mood States (POMS)  Their results show that collective mood accurately predicts the direction of Down Jones stock index (86 7% accuracy)  In BIBREF24 handcrafted text representations including term count, noun-phrase tags and extracted named entities are employed for predicting stock market direction using Support Vector Machine (SVM)  An extension of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is proposed in BIBREF25 to learn a joint latent space of topics and sentiments 
Our deep learning models bear a close resemblance to works focused on directional price forecasting BIBREF26 , BIBREF27   In BIBREF26 , headline news are processed using Stanford OpenIE to generate triples that are fed into a Neural Tensor Network to create the final headline representation  In BIBREF27 , a character-level embedding is pre-trained in an unsupervised manner  The character embedding is used as input to a sequence model to learn the headline representation  Particularly, both works average all headline representations in a given day, rather than attempting to weight the most relevant ones  In this work, we propose a neural attention mechanism to capture the News Relevance and provide experimental evidence that it is a key component of the end-to-end learning process  Our attention extends the previous deep learning methods from BIBREF26 , BIBREF27  
Despite the fact that end-to-end deep learning models have attained state-of-the-art performance, the large number of parameters make them prone to overfitting  Additionally, end-to-end models are trained from scratch requiring large datasets and computational resources  Transfer learning (TL) alleviates this problem by adapting representations learnt from a different and potentially weakly related source domain to the new target domain  For example, in computer vision tasks the convolutional features learnt from ImageNet BIBREF28 dataset (source domain) have been successfully transferred to multiple domain target tasks with much smaller datasets such as object classification and scene recognition BIBREF29   In this work, we consider TL in our experiments for two main reasons  First, it address the question whether our proposed dataset is suitable for end-to-end training since the performance of the transferred representations can be compared with end-to-end learning  Second, it is still to be investigated which dataset transfers better to the forecasting problem  Recently, the NLP community has focused on universal representations of sentences BIBREF17 , BIBREF19 , which are dense representations that carry the meaning of a full sentence  BIBREF17 found that transferring the sentence representation trained on the Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) BIBREF30 dataset achieves state-of-the-art sentence representations to multiple NLP tasks (e g  sentiment analysis, question-type and opinion polarity)  Following BIBREF17 , in this work, we investigate the suitability of SNLI and Reuters RCV1 BIBREF31 datasets to transfer learning to the volatility forecasting task  To the best of our knowledge, the hierarchical attention mechanism at headline level, proposed in our work, has not being applied to volatility prediction so far; neither has been investigated the ability to transfer sentence encoders from source datasets to the target forecasting problem (Transfer Learning) 
Our dataset
Our corpus covers a broad range of news including news around earnings dates and complements the 10-K reports content  As an illustration, the headlines “Walmart warns that strong U S  dollar will cost $15B in sales” and “Procter & Gamble Co raises FY organic sales growth forecast after sales beat” describe the company financial conditions and performance from the management point of view – these are also typical content present in Section 7 of the 10-K reports 
In this section, we describe the steps involved in compiling our dataset of financial news at stock level, which comprises a broad range of business sectors 
Sectors and stocks
The first step in compiling our corpus was to choose the constituents stocks  Our goal was to consider stocks in a broad range of sectors, aiming a diversified financial domain corpus  We found that Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) provide a mechanical way to aggregate the most relevant stocks in a given industry/sector  An ETF is a fund that owns assets, e g  stock shares or currencies, but, unlike mutual funds are traded in stock exchanges  These ETFs are extremely liquid and track different investment themes  We decided to use SPDR Setcor Funds constituents stocks in our work since the company is the largest provider of sector funds in the United States  We included in our analysis the top 5 (five) sector ETFs by financial trading volume (as in Jan/2018)  Among the most traded sectors we also filtered out the sectors that were similar to each other  For example, the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors are both part of the parent Consumer category  For each of the top 5 sectors we selected the top 10 holdings, which are deemed the most relevant stocks  tbl:stockuniverse, details our dataset sectors and its respective stocks 
Stock specific data
We assume that an individual stock news as the one that explicitly mention the stock name or any of its surface forms in the headline  As an illustration, in order to collect all news for the stock code PG, Procter & Gamble company name, we search all the headlines with any of these words: Procter&Gamble OR Procter and Gamble OR P&G  In this example, the first word is just the company name and the remaining words are the company surface forms 
We automatically derived the surface forms for each stock by starting with a seed of surface forms extracted from the DBpedia Knowledge Base (KB)  We then applied the following procedure:
Relate each company name with the KB entity unique identifier 
Retrieve all values of the wikiPageRedirects property  The property holds the names of different pages that points to the same entity/company name  This step sets the initial seed of surface forms 
Manually, filter out some noisy property values  For instance, from the Procter & Glamble entity page we were able to automatically extract dbr:Procter_and_gamble and dbr:P_&_G, but had to manually exclude the noisy associations dbr:Female_pads and dbr:California_Natural 
The result of the steps above is a dictionary of surface forms $wd_{sc}$  
Stock headlines
Our corpus is built at stock code level by collecting headlines from the Reuters Archive  This archive groups the headlines by date, starting from 1 January 2007  Each headline is a html link (<a href> tag) to the full body of the news, where the anchor text is the headline content followed by the release time  For example, the page dated 16 Dec 2016 has the headline “Procter & Gamble appoints Nelson Peltz to board 5:26PM UTC” 
For each of the 50 stocks (5 sectors times 10 stocks per sector) selected using the criteria described in sub:corpussecstock, we retrieved all the headlines from the Reuters Archive raging from 01/01/2007 to 30/12/2017  This process takes the following steps:
For a given stock code ( $sc$ ) retrieve all surface forms $wd_{sc}$  
For each day, store only the headlines content matching any word in $wd_{sc}$   For each stored headline we also store the time and timezone 
Convert the news date and time to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) 
Categorize the news release time  We consider the following category set: {before market, during market , after market, holidays, weekends}  during market contains news between 9:30AM and 4:00PM  before market before 9:30AM and after market after 4:00PM 
The time categories prevents any misalignment between text and stock price data  Moreover, it prevents data leakage and, consequently, unrealistic predictive model performance  In general, news released after 4:00PM EDT can drastically change market expectations and the returns calculated using close to close prices as in the GARCH(1,1) model (see eq:closingreturn)  Following BIBREF3 , to deal with news misalignment, news issued after 4:00PM (after market) are grouped with the pre-market (before market) on the following trading day 
tbl:stocktimecat shows the distribution of news per sector for each time category  We can see a high concentration of news released before the market opens (55% on average)  In contrast, using a corpus compiled from message boards, a large occurrence of news during market hours was found BIBREF3   This behaviour indicating day traders' activity  Our corpus comprise financial news agency headlines, a content more focused on corporate events (e g  lawsuits, merges & acquisitions, research & development) and on economic news (see tbl:stockheadlinesexmaples for a sample of our dataset)  These headlines are mostly factual  On the other hand, user-generated content such as Twitter and message boards (as in BIBREF3 , BIBREF4 ) tends to be more subjective 
U S  macroeconomic indicators such as Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and GDP are mostly released around 8:30AM (one hour before the market opens)  These numbers are key drivers of market activity and, as such, have a high media coverage  Specific sections of these economic reports impact several stocks and sectors  Another factor that contribute to the high activity of news outside regular trading hours are company earnings reports  These are rarely released during trading hours  Finally, before the market opens news agencies provide a summary of the international markets developments, e g  the key facts during the Asian and Australian trading hours  All these factors contribute to the high concentration of pre-market news 
Background
We start this section by reviewing the GARCH(1,1) model, which is a strong benchmark used to evaluate our neural model  We then review the source datasets proposed in the literature that were trained independently and transfered to our volatility prediction model  Finally, we review the general architectures of sequence modelling and attention mechanisms 
GARCH model
Financial institutions use the concept of “Value at risk” to measure the expected volatility of their portfolios  The widespread econometric model for volatility forecasting is the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) BIBREF32 , BIBREF33   Previous research shows that the GARCH(1,1) model is hard to beat  For example, BIBREF34 compared GARCH(1,1) with 330 different econometric volatility models showing that they are not significantly better than GARCH(1,1)  Let $p_t$ be the price of an stock at the end of a trading period with closing returns $r_t$ given by
$$r_t = \frac{p_t}{p_{t-1}} - 1 $$   (Eq  29)
The GARCH process explicitly models the time-varying volatility of asset returns  In the GARCH(1,1) specification the returns series $r_t$ follow the process:
$$r_t &= \mu + \epsilon _t  \\ \epsilon _t &= \sigma _t z_t  \\ \sigma ^2_t &= a_0 + a_1 \epsilon _{t-1}^2 + b_1 \sigma _{t-1}^2$$   (Eq  30)
where $\mu $ is a constant (return drift) and $z_t$ is a sequence of i i d  random variables with mean zero and unit variance  It is worth noting that although the conditional mean return described in eq:garchcondmean has a constant value, the conditional volatility $\sigma _t$ is time-dependent and modeled by eq:att 
The one-step ahead expected volatility forecast can be computed directly from eq:garchcondvariance and is given by
$$E_T[\sigma _{T+1}^2] = a_0 + a_1 E_T[\epsilon ^2] + b_1 E_T[\sigma _{T}^2] $$   (Eq  32)
In general, the $t^{\prime }$ -steps ahead expected volatility $E_T[\sigma _{T+t^{\prime }}^2]$ can be easily expressed in terms of the previous step expected volatility  It is easy to prove by induction that the forecast for any horizon can be represented in terms of the one-step ahead forecast and is given by
$$E_T[\sigma _{T+t^{\prime }}^2] - \sigma _u^2 = (a_1 + b_1)^{(t^{\prime } -1)} \left(E_T[\sigma _{T+1}^2] - \sigma _u^2\right)$$   (Eq  33)
where $\sigma _u$ is the unconditional volatility:
$$\sigma _u = \sqrt{a_0 / (1 - a_1 - b_1)} $$   (Eq  34)
From the equation above we can see that for long horizons, i e  $t^\prime \rightarrow \infty $ , the volatility forecast in eq:forecastrecursive converges to the unconditional volatility in eq:unvar 
All the works reviewed in sec:introduction ( BIBREF12 , BIBREF13 , BIBREF14 , BIBREF15 , BIBREF16 ) consider GARCH(1,1) benchmark  However, given the long horizon of their predictions (e g  quarterly or annual), the models are evaluated using the unconditional volatility $\sigma _u$ in eq:unvar  In this work, we focus on the short-term volatility prediction and use the GARCH(1,1) one-day ahead conditional volatility prediction in eq:forecastoneperiod to evaluate our models 
Let $\sigma _{t+1}$ denote the ex-post “true” daily volatility at a given time $t$   The performance on a set with $N$ daily samples can be evaluated using the standard Mean Squared Error ( $MSE$ ) and Mean Absolute Error ( $MAE$ )
$$MSE &= \frac{1}{N} \sum _{t=1}^{N} \left( E_t[\sigma _{t+1}] - \sigma _{t+1}\right)^2  \\ MAE &= \frac{1}{N} \sum _{t=1}^{N}\left|E_t[\sigma _{t+1}] - \sigma _{t+1} \right|$$   (Eq  36)
Additionally, following BIBREF35 , the models are also evaluated using the coefficient of determination $R^2$ of the regression
$$\sigma _{t+1} = a + b E_t[\sigma _{t+1}] + e_t$$   (Eq  37)
where
$$R^2 = 1 - \frac{\sum _{t=1}^{N}e^{2}_{t}}{\sum _{t=1}^{N}\left(E_t[\sigma _{t+1}] - \frac{1}{N} \sum _{t=1}^{N}E_t[\sigma _{t+1}]\right)^{2}}$$   (Eq  38)
One of the challenges in evaluating GARCH models is the fact that the ex-post volatility $\sigma _{t+1}$ is not directly observed  Apparently, the squared daily returns $r_{t+1}^{2}$ in eq:closingreturn could stand as a good proxy for the ex-post volatility  However, the squared returns yield very noisy measurements  This is a direct consequence of the term $z^t$ that connects the squared return to the latent volatility factor in eq:garchwhitenoise  The use of intraday prices to estimate the ex-post daily volayility was first proposed in BIBREF35   They argue that volatility estimators using intraday prices is the proper way to evaluate the GARCH(1,1) model, as opposed to squared daily returns  For example, considering the Deutsche Mark the GARCH(1,1) model $R^2$ improves from $0 047$ (squared returns) to $0 33$ (intraday returns) BIBREF35  
It is clear from the previous section that any volatility model evaluation using the noisy squared returns as the ex-post volatility proxy will lead to very poor performance  Therefore, high-frequency intraday data is fundamental to short-term volatility performance evaluation  However, intraday data is difficult to acquire and costly  Fortunately, there are statistically efficient daily volatility estimators that only depend on the open, high, low and close prices  These price “ranges” are widely available  In this section, we discuss these estimators 
Let $O_t$ , $H_t$ , $L_t$ , $C_t$ be the open, high, low and close prices of an asset in a given day $t$   Assuming that the daily price follows a geometric Brownian motion with zero drift and constant daily volatility $\sigma $ , Parkinson (1980) derived the first daily volatility estimator
$$\widehat{\sigma _{PK,t}^2} = \frac{\ln \left(\frac{H_t}{L_t}\right)^2}{4\ln (2)} $$   (Eq  41)
which represents the daily volatility in terms of its price range  Hence, it contains information about the price path  Given this property, it is expected that $\sigma _{PK}$ is less noisy than the volatility calculated using squared returns  The Parkinson's volatility estimator was extended by Garman-Klass (1980) which incorporates additional information about the opening ( $O_t$ ) and closing ( $C_t$ ) prices and is defined as
$$\widehat{\sigma _{GK,t}^{2}} = \frac{1}{2} \ln \left(\frac{H_t}{L_t}\right)^2 - (2\ln (2) - 1) \ln \left(\frac{C_t}{O_t}\right)^2 $$   (Eq  42)
The relative noisy of different estimators $\hat{\sigma }$ can be measured in terms of its relative efficiency to the daily volatility $\sigma $ and is defined as
$$e\left(\widehat{\sigma ^{2}}, \sigma ^2\right) \equiv \frac{Var[\sigma ^2]}{Var[\widehat{\sigma ^{2}}]}$$   (Eq  43)
where $Var[\cdot ]$ is the variance operator  It follows directly from eq:garchwhitenoise that the squared return has efficiency 1 and therefore, very noisy  BIBREF36 reports Parkinson ( $\widehat{\sigma _{PK,t}^2}$ ) volatility estimator has 4 9 relative efficiency and Garman-Klass ( $\widehat{\sigma _{GK,t}^2}$ ) 7 4  Additionally, all the described estimators are unbiased 
Many alternative estimators to daily volatility have been proposed in the literature  However, experiments in BIBREF36 rate the Garman-Klass volatility estimator as the best volatility estimator based only on open, high, low and close prices  In this work, we train our models to predict the state-of-the-art Garman-Klass estimator  Moreover, we evaluate our models and GARCH(1,1) using the metrics described in sub:evalution, but with the appropriate volatility proxies, i e  Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators 
Transfer Learning from other source domains
Vector representations of words, also known as Word embeddings BIBREF21 , BIBREF37 , that represent a word as a dense vector has become the standard building blocks of almost all NLP tasks  These embeddings are trained on large unlabeled corpus and are able to capture context and similarity among words 
Some attempts have been made to learn vector representations of a full sentence, rather than only a single word, using unsupervised approaches similar in nature to word embeddings  Recently, BIBREF17 showed state-of-the-art performance when a sentence encoder is trained end-to-end on a supervised source task and transferred to other target tasks  Inspired by this work, we investigate the performance of sentence encoders trained on the Text categorization and Natural Language Inference (NLI) tasks and use these encoders in our main short-term volatility prediction task 
A generic sentence encoder $S_e$ receives the sentence words as input and returns a vector representing the sentence  This can be expressed as a mapping
$$S_e \colon \mathbb {R}^{T^{S} \times d_w} \rightarrow \mathbb {R}^{d_S}$$   (Eq  45)
from a variable size sequence of words to a sentence vector $S$ of fixed-size $d_S$ , where $T^{S}$ is the sentence number of words and $d_w$ is the pre-trained word embedding dimension 
In the following sections, we describe the datasets and architectures to train the sentence encoders of the auxiliary transfer learning tasks 
The Reuters Corpus Volume I (RCV1) is corpus containing 806,791 news articles in the English language collected from 20/08/1996 to 19/08/1997 BIBREF31   The topic of each news was human-annotated using a hierarchical structure  At the top of the hierarchy, lies the coarse-grained categories: CCAT (Corporate), ECAT (Economics), GCAT (Government), and MCAT (Markets)  A news article can be assigned to more than one category meaning that the text categorization task is mutilabel  Each news is stored in a separate XML file  lst:rcv1xmlexample shows the typical structure of an article 
<?xml version="1 0" encoding="iso-8859-1" ?>
<newsitem itemid="6159" id="root" date="1996-08-21" xml:lang="en">
<headline>Colombia raises internal coffee price </headline>
<dateline>BOGOTA 1996-08-21</dateline>
<copyright>(c) Reuters Limited 1996</copyright>
<metadata>
<codes class="bip:topics:1 0">
<code code="C13">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
<code code="C31">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
<code code="CCAT">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
<code code="M14">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
<code code="M141">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
<code code="MCAT">
<editdetail attribution="Reuters BIP Coding Group" action="confirmed" date="1996-08-21"/>
</code>
</codes>
</metadata>
</newsitem>
The RCV1 dataset is not released with a standard train, validation, test split  In this work, we separated 15% of samples as a test set for evaluation purposes  The remaining samples were further split leaving 70% and 15% for training and validation, respectively 
Regarding the categories distribution, we found that, from the original 126 categories, 23 categories were never assigned to any news; therefore, were disregarded  From the 103 classes left we found a high imbalance among the labels with a large number of underrepresented categories having less than 12 samples  The very low number of samples for these minority classes brings a great challenge to discriminate the very fine-grained categories  Aiming to alleviate this problem, we grouped into a same class all categories below the second hierarchical level  For example, given the root node CCAT (Corporate) we grouped C151 (ACCOUNTS/EARNINGS), C1511 (ANNUAL RESULTS) and C152 (COMMENT/FORECASTS) into the direct child node C15 (PERFORMANCE)  Using this procedure the original 103 categories where reduced to 55  One of the benefits of this procedure was that the less represented classes end up having around thousand samples compared with only 12 samples in the original dataset 
fig:rcv1arch, shows the architecture for the end-to-end text categorization task  On the bottom of the architecture $S_e$ receives word embeddings and outputs a sentence vector $S$   The $S$ vector pass through a fully connected (FC) layer with sigmoid activation function that outputs a vector $\hat{y} \in \mathbb {R}^{55}$ with each element $\hat{y}_j \in [0,1]$  
The architecture described above is trained under the assumption that each category is independent but not mutually exclusive since a sample can have more than one category assigned (multilabel classification)  The loss per sample is the average log loss across all labels:
$$\mathcal {L}(\hat{y}, y) = - \sum _{i=1}^{55}\left( y_i \log (\hat{y}_i) + (1-y_{i}) \log (1-\hat{y}_{i}) \right)$$   (Eq  48)
where the index $i$ runs over the elements of the predicted and true vectors 
Given the high categories imbalance, during the training we monitor the $F_1$ metric of the validation set and choose the model with the highest value 
Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) dataset BIBREF30 consist of 570,000 pairs of sentences  Each pair has a premise and a hypothesis, manually labeled with one of the three labels: entailment, contradiction, or neutral  The SNLI has many desired properties  The labels are equally balanced, as opposed to the RCV1 dataset  Additionally, language inference is a complex task that requires a deeper understanding of the sentence meaning making this dataset suitable for learning supervised sentence encoders that generalize well to other tasks BIBREF17   tbl:snliexmaples, shows examples of SNLI dataset sentence pairs and its respective labels 
In order to learn sentence encoders that can be transfered to other tasks unambiguously, we consider a neural network architecture for the sentence encoder with shared parameters between the premise and hypothesis pairs as in BIBREF17  
fig:snliarch, describes the neural network architecture  After each premise and hypothesis is encoded into $S_p$ and $S_h$ , respectively, we have a fusion layer  This layer has no trainable weights and just concatenate each sentence embedding  Following BIBREF17 , we add two more matching methods: the absolute difference $\vert S_p - S_h \vert $ and the element-wise $S_p \odot S_h$   Finally, in order to learn the pair representation, $S_ph$ is feed into and FC layer with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function, which is expressed as $f(x) = \log (1 + e^x)$   The last softmax layer outputs the probability of each class 
Finally, the NLI classifier weights are optimized in order to minimize the categorical log loss per sample
$$\mathcal {L}(\hat{y}, y) = - \sum _{j=1}^{3}y_i \log (\hat{y}_i)$$   (Eq  52)
During the training, we monitor the validation set accuracy and choose the model with the highest metric value 
Sequence Models
We start this section by reviewing the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture and its application to encode a sequence of words 
RNN's are capable of handling variable-length sequences, this being a direct consequence of its recurrent cell, which shares the same parameters across all sequence elements  In this work, we adopt the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cell BIBREF38 with forget gates $f_t$ BIBREF39   The LSTM cell is endowed with a memory state that can learn representations that depend on the order of the words in a sentence  This makes LSTM more fit to find relations that could not be captured using standard bag-of-words representations 
Let $x_1, x_2, \cdots , x_T$ be a series of observations of length $T$ , where $x_t \in \mathbb {R}^{d_w}$   In general terms, the LSTM cell receives a previous hidden state $h_{t-1}$ that is combined with the current observation $x_t$ and a memory state $C_t$ to output a new hidden state $h_t$   This internal memory state $C_{t}$ is updated depending on its previous state and three modulating gates: input, forget, and output  Formally, for each step $t$ the updating process goes as follows (see fig:lstmcell for a high level schematic view): First, we calculate the input $i_t$ , forget $T$0 , and output $T$1 gates:
$$i_t &= \sigma _s\left(W_i x_t + U_i h_{t-1} + b_i\right) \\ f_t &= \sigma _s\left(W_f x_t + U_f h_{t-1} + b_f\right) \\ o_t &= \sigma _s\left(W_o x_t + U_o h_{t-1} + b_o\right)$$   (Eq  54)
where $\sigma _s$ is the sigmoid activation  Second, a candidate memory state $\widetilde{C}_t$ is generated:
$$\widetilde{C}_t = \tanh \left(W_c x_t + U_c h_{t-1} + b_c\right)$$   (Eq  55)
Now we are in a position to set the final memory state $C_t$   Its value is modulated based on the input and forget gates of eq:inputforgetgates and is given by:
$$C_t = i_t \odot \widetilde{C}_t + f_t \odot C_{t-1}$$   (Eq  56)
Finally, based on the memory state and output gate of eq:inputforgetgates, we have the output hidden state
$$h_t = o_t \odot \tanh \left(C_t\right)$$   (Eq  57)
Regarding the trainable weights, let $n$ be the LSTM cell number of units  It follows that $W$ 's and $U$ 's matrices of the affine transformations have ${n \times d_w}$ and ${n \times n}$ dimensions, respectively  Its bias terms $b$ 's are vectors of size $n$   Consequently, the total number of parameters is $4 (n d_w + n^2 + n)$ and does not depend on the sequence number of time steps $T$  
We see that the LSTM networks are able to capture temporal dependencies in sequences of arbitrary length  One straightforward application is to model the Sentence encoder discussed in sec:transferlearning, which outputs a sentence vector representation using its words as input 
Given a sequence of words $\left\lbrace w_t\right\rbrace _{t=1}^{T}$ we aim to learn the words hidden state $\left\lbrace h_t\right\rbrace _{t=1}^{T}$ in a way that each word captures the influence of its past and future words  The Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) proposed in BIBREF40 is an LSTM that “reads” a sentence, or any sequence in general, from the beginning to the end (forward) and the other way around (backward)  The new state $h_t$ is the concatenation
$$h_t = [\overrightarrow{h_t}, \overleftarrow{h_t}]$$   (Eq  59)
where
$$\overrightarrow{h_t} &= \text{LSTM}\left(w_1, \cdots , w_T\right) \\ \overleftarrow{h_t} &= \text{LSTM}\left(w_T, \cdots , w_1\right) \\$$   (Eq  60)
Because sentences have different lengths, we need to convert the $T$ concatenated hidden states of the BiLSTM into a fixed-length sentence representation  One straightforward operation is to apply any form of pooling  Attention mechanism is an alternative approach where the sentence is represented as an weighted average of hidden states where the weights are learnt end-to-end 
In the next sections we describe the sentence encoders using pooling and attention layers 
The max-pooling layer aims to extract the most salient word features all over the sentence  Formally, it outputs a sentence vector representation $S_{MP} \in \mathbb {R}^{2n}$ such that
$$S_{MP} = \max _{t=1}^{T} h_t$$   (Eq  62)
where $h_t$ is defined in eq:htconcat and the $\max $ operator is applied over the time steps dimension  fig:bilstmmaxpool illustrates the BiLSTM max-pooling (MP) sentence encoder 
The efficacy of the max-pooling layer was assessed in many NLP studies  BIBREF41 employed a max-pooling layer on top of word representations and argues that it performs better than mean pooling  Experimental results in BIBREF17 show that among three types of pooling (max, mean and last) the max-pooling provides the most universal sentence representations in terms of transferring performance to other tasks  Grounded on these studies, in this work, we choose the BiLSTM max-pooling as our pooling layer of choice 
Attention mechanisms were introduced in the deep learning literature to overcome some simplifications imposed by pooling operators  When we humans read a sentence, we are able to spot its most relevant parts in a given context and disregard information that is redundant or misleading  The attention model aims to mimic this behaviour 
Attention layers were proposed for different NLP tasks  For example, NLI, with cross-attention between premise and hypothesis, Question & Answering and Machine Translation (MT)  Specifically in the Machine Translation task, each word in the target sentence learns to attend the relevant words of the source sentence in order to generate the sentence translation 
A sentence encoder with attention (or self-attentive) BIBREF42 , BIBREF43 , BIBREF44 assigns different weights to the own words of the sentence; therefore, converting the hidden states into a single sentence vector representation 
Considering the word hidden vectors set $\lbrace h_1, \cdots , h_T\rbrace $ where $h_t \in \mathbb {R}^n$ , the attention mechanism is defined by the equations:
$$\tilde{h}_t &= \sigma \left(W h_t + b \right) \\ \alpha _{t} &= \frac{\exp ({v^{\intercal } \cdot \tilde{h}_t} )}{\sum _{t} \exp ({v \cdot \tilde{h}_t})} \\ S_{A_w} &= \sum _{t} \alpha _{t} h_t$$   (Eq  66)
where $W \in \mathbb {R}^{d_a \times n}$ , $b \in \mathbb {R}^{d_a \times 1}$ , and $v \in \mathbb {R}^{d_a \times 1}$ are trainable parameters 
We can see that the sentence representation $S_{A_w}$ is a weighted average of the hidden states  fig:bilstminneratt provides a schematic view of the BiLSTM attention, where we can account the attention described in eq:att as a two layer model with a dense layer ( $d_a$ units) followed by another dense that predicts $\alpha _t$ (single unit) 
Methodology
In this section, we first introduce our problem in a deep multimodal learning framework  We then present our neural architecture, which is able to address the problems of news relevance and novelty  Finally, we review the methods applied to learn commonalities between stocks (global features) 
Problem statement
Our problem is to predict the daily stock volatility  As discussed in subsub:rangevolestimators, the Gaman-Klass estimator $\widehat{\sigma _{GK,t}}$ in eq:volgk is a very efficient short-term volatility proxy, thus, it is adopted as our target variable 
Our goal is to learn a mapping between the next day volatility $\sigma _{t+1}$ and historical multimodal data available up to day $t$   To this aim, we use a sliding window approach with window size $T$   That is, for each stock $sc$ a sample on day $t$ is expressed as a sequence of historical prices $P^{sc}_t$ and corpus headlines $N^{sc}_t$   The price sequence is a vector of Daily Prices (DP) and expressed as
$$P^{sc}_t = \left[DP^{sc}_{t-T}, DP^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , DP^{sc}_t \right]$$   (Eq  69)
where $DP^{sc}_{t^{\prime }}$ is a vector of price features  In order to avoid task-specific feature engineering, the daily price features are expressed as the simple returns:
$$DP^{sc}_t = \left[ \frac{O^{sc}_{t}}{C^{sc}_{t-1}} - 1, \frac{H^{sc}_{t}}{C^{sc}_{t-1}} - 1, \frac{L^{sc}_{t}}{C^{sc}_{t-1}} - 1, \frac{C^{sc}_{t}}{C^{sc}_{t-1}} - 1 \right]$$   (Eq  70)
The sequence of historical corpus headlines $N^{sc}_t$ is expressed as
$$N^{sc}_t = \left[n^{sc}_{t-T}, n^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , n^{sc}_{t} \right]$$   (Eq  71)
where $n^{sc}_{t^{\prime }}$ is a set containing all headlines that influence the market on a given day $t^{\prime }$  
Aiming to align prices and news modes, we consider the explicit alignment method discussed in subsec:stockheadlines  That is, $n^{sc}_{t^{\prime }}$ contains all stock headlines before the market opens ( $\texttt {before market}_{t}$ ), during the trading hours
( $\texttt {during market}_{t}$ ), and previous day after-markets
( $\texttt {after market}_{t-1}$ ) 
As a text preprocessing step, we tokenize the headlines and convert each word to an integer that refers to its respective pre-trained word embedding  This process is described as follows: First, for all stocks of our corpus we tokenize each headline and extract the corpus vocabulary set $V$   We then build the embedding matrix $E_w \in \mathbb {R}^{\vert V \vert \times d_w}$ , where each row is a word embedding vector $d_w$ dimensions  Words that do not have a corresponding embedding, i e  out of vocabulary words, are skipped 
Finally, the input sample of the text mode is a tensor of integers with $T \times l_n \times l_s$ dimensions, where $l_n$ is the maximum number of news occurring in a given day and $l_s$ is the maximum length of a corpus sentence  Regarding the price mode, we have a $T \times 4$ tensor of floating numbers 
Global features and stock embedding
Given the price and news histories for each stock $sc$ we could directly learn one model per stock  However, this approach suffers from two main drawbacks  First, the market activity of one specific stock is expected to impact other stocks, which is a widely accepted pattern named “spillover effect”  Second, since our price data is sampled on a daily basis, we would train the stock model relying on a small number of samples  One possible solution to model the commonality among stocks would be feature enrichment  For example, when modeling a given stock $X$ we would enrich its news and price features by concatenating features from stock $Y$ and $Z$   Although the feature enrichment is able to model the effect of other stocks, it still would consider only one sample per day 
In this work, we propose a method that learns an global model 
The global model is implemented using the following methods:
Multi-Stock batch samples: Since our models are trained using Stochastic Gradient Descent, we propose at each mini-batch iteration to sample from a batch set containing any stock of our stocks universe  As a consequence, the mapping between volatility and multimodal data is now able to learn common explanatory factors among stocks  Moreover, adopting this approach increases the total number of training samples, which is now the sum of the number of samples per stock 
Stock Embedding: Utilizing the Multi-Stock batch samples above, we tackle the problem of modeling commonality among stocks  However, it is reasonable to assume that stocks have part of its dynamic driven by idiosyncratic factors  Nevertheless, we could aggregate stocks per sector or rely on any measure of similarity among stocks  In order to incorporate information specific to each stock, we propose to equip our model with a “stock embedding” mode that is learnt jointly with price and news modes  That is to say, we leave the task of distinguishing the specific dynamic of each stock to be learnt by the neural network  Specifically, this stock embedding is modeled using a discrete encoding as input, i e  $\mathcal {I}^{sc}_t$ is a vector with size equal to the number of stocks of the stocks universe and has element 1 for the i-th coordinate and 0 elsewhere, thus, indicating the stock of each sample 
Formally, we can express the one model per stock approach as the mapping
$$\begin{split} \sigma ^{sc}_{t+1} = f^{sc} ( DN^{sc}_{t-T}, DN^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , DN^{sc}_t ; \\ DP^{sc}_{t-T}, DP^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , DP^{sc}_t ) \end{split}$$   (Eq  75)
where $DN^{sc}_{t^{\prime }}$ is a fixed-vector representing all news released on a given day for the stock $sc$ and $DP^{sc}_{t^{\prime }}$ is defined in eq:pricemodevec 
The global model attempts to learn a single mapping $f$ that at each mini-batch iteration randomly aggregates samples across all the universe of stocks, rather than one mapping $f^{sc}$ per stock  The global model is expressed as
$$\begin{split} \sigma ^{sc}_{t+1} = f ( DN^{sc}_{t-T}, DN^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , DN^{sc}_t ; \\ DP^{sc}_{t-T}, DP^{sc}_{t-T+1}, \cdots , DP^{sc}_t ; \\ \mathcal {I}^{sc}_t) \end{split}$$   (Eq  77)
In the next section, we describe our hierarchical neural model and how the news, price and stock embedding are fused into a joint representation 
Our multimodal hierarchical network
In broad terms, our hierarchical neural architecture is described as follows  First, each headline released on a given day $t$ is encoded into a fixed-size vector $S_t$ using a sentence encoder  We then apply our daily New Relevance Attention (NRA) mechanism that attends each news based on its content and converts a variable size of news released on a given day into a single vector denoted by Daily News ( $DN$ )  We note that this representation take account of the overall effect of all news released on a given day  This process is illustrated in fig:DNencoder  We now are in a position to consider the temporal effect of the past $T$ days of market news and price features  fig:nntimeseriesarch illustrates the neural network architecture from the temporal sequence to the final volatility prediction  For each stock code $sc$ the temporal encoding for news is denoted by Market News $MN^{sc}_t$ and for the price by Market Price $MP^{sc}_t$ and are a function of the past $T$ Daily News representations ${\lbrace DN^{sc}_{t-T}, \cdots , DN^{sc}_t \rbrace }$ (Text mode) and Daily Prices features $S_t$0 (Price mode), where each Daily Price $S_t$1 feature is given by eq:pricemodevec and the $S_t$2 representation is calculated using Daily New Relevance Attention  After the temporal effects of $S_t$3 past days of market activity were already encoded into the Market News $S_t$4 and Market Price $S_t$5 , we concatenate feature-wise $S_t$6 , $S_t$7 and the Stock embedding $S_t$8   The stock embedding $S_t$9 represents the stock code of the sample on a given day $t$   Finally, we have a Fully Connected (FC) layer that learns the Joint Representation of all modes  This fixed-sized joint representation is fed into a FC layer with linear activation that predicts the next day volatility $\hat{\sigma }_{t+1}$  
Below, we detail, for each mode separately, the layers of our hierarchical model 
– Text mode
Word Embedding Retrieval
Standard embedding layer with no trainable parameters  It receives a vector of word indices as input and returns a matrix of word embeddings 
News Encoder
This layer encodes all news on a given day and outputs a set news embeddings $\lbrace S^{1}_t, \cdots , S^{l_n}_t \rbrace $   Each encoded sentence has dimension $d_S$ , which is a hyperparameter of our model  This layer constitutes a key component of our neural architectures and, as such, we evaluate our models considering sentence encoders trained end-to-end, using the BiLSTM attention (subsec:bilstminneratt) and BiLSTM max-pooling (subsec:bilstmmaxpool) architectures, and also transferred from the RCV1 and SNLI as fixed features 
Daily news relevance attention
Our proposed news relevance attention mechanism for all news released on a given day  The attention mechanism is introduced to tackle information overload  It was designed to “filter out” redundant or misleading news and focus on the relevant ones based solely on the news content  Formally, the layer outputs a Daily News (DN) embedding $DN^{sc}_t = \sum _{i=1}^{l_n} \beta _i S^{sc^{i}}_t$ , which is a linear combination of all encoded news on a given day $t$   This news-level attention uses the same equations as in eq:att, but with trainable weights $\lbrace W_{R}, b_{R}, v_{R}\rbrace $ , i e  the weights are segregated from the sentence encoder  fig:DNencoder, illustrates our relevance attention  Note that this layer was deliberately developed to be invariant to headlines permutation, as is the case with the linear combination formula above  The reason is that our price data is sampled daily and, as a consequence, we are not able to discriminate the market reaction for each intraday news 
News Temporal Context
Sequence layer with daily news embeddings $DN^{sc}_t$ as time steps  This layer aims to learn the temporal context of news, i e  the relationship between the news at day $t$ and the $T$ past days  It receives as input a chronologically ordered sequence of $T$ past Daily News embeddings ${\lbrace DN^{sc}_{t-T}, \cdots , DN^{sc}_t \rbrace }$ and outputs the news mode encoding Market News $MN^{sc}_t \in d_{MN}$   The sequence with $T$ time steps is encoded using a BiLSTM attention  The layer was designed to capture the temporal order that news are released and the current news novelty  i e  news that were repeated in the past can be “forgotten” based on the modulating gates of the LSTM network 
– Price mode
Price Encoder
Sequence layer analogous to News Temporal Context, but for the price mode  The input is the ordered sequence Daily Prices ${\lbrace DP^{sc}_{t-T}, \cdots , DP^{sc}_t \rbrace }$ of size $T$ , where each element the price feature defined in eq:pricemodevec  Particularly, the architecture consists of two stacked LSTM's  The first one outputs for each price feature time step a hidden vector that takes the temporal context into account  Then these hidden vectors are again passed to a second independent LSTM  The layer outputs the price mode encoding Market Price $MP^{sc}_t \in d_{MP}$   This encoding is the last hidden vector of the second LSTM Market 
– Stock embedding
Stock Encoder
Stock dense representation  The layer receives the discrete encoding $\mathcal {I}^{sc}_t$ indicating the sample stock code pass through a FC layer and outputs a stock embedding $E_{sc}$  
– Joint Representation
Merging
Feature-wise News, Price, and Stock modes concatenation  No trainable parameters 
Joint Representation Encoder
FC layer of size $d_{JR}$  
Multimodal learning with missing modes
During the training we feed into our neural model the price, news, and stock indicator data  The price and stock indicator modes data occur in all days  However, at the individual stock level we can have days that the company is not covered by the media  This feature imposes challenges to our multimodal training since neural networks are not able to handle missing modes without special intervention  A straightforward solution would be to consider only days with news released, disregarding the remaining samples  However, this approach has two main drawbacks  First, the “missing news” do not happen at random, or are attributed to measurement failure as is, for example, the case of multimodal tasks using mechanical sensors data  Conversely, as highlighted in BIBREF7 , BIBREF8 the same price behaviour results in distinct market reactions when accompanied or not by news  In other words, specifically to financial forecasting problems the absence or existence of news are highly informative 
Some methods were proposed in the multimodal literature to effectively treat informative missing modes or “informative missingness”, which is a characteristic refereed in the literature as learning with missing modalities BIBREF22   In this work, we directly model the news missingness as a feature of our text model temporal sequence by using the method initially proposed in BIBREF45 , BIBREF46 for clinical data with missing measurements and applied in the context of financial forecasting in BIBREF47   Specifically, we implement the Zeros & Imputation (ZI) method BIBREF46 in order to jointly learn the price mode and news relationship across all days of market activity 
The ZI implementation is described as follows: Before the daily news sequence is processed by the text temporal layer (described in itm:newstclayer) we input a 0 vector for all time steps with missing news and leave the news encoding unchanged otherwise  This step is called zero imputation  In addition, we concatenate feature-wise an indicator vector with value 1 for all vectors with zero imputation and 0 for the days with news 
As described in BIBREF47 , the ZI method endow a temporal sequence model with the ability to learn different representations depending on the news history and its relative time position  Moreover, it allows our model to predict the volatility for all days of our time series and, at the same time, take into account the current and past news informative missingness  Furthermore, the learnt positional news encoding works differently than a typical “masking”, where days without news are not passed through the LSTM cell  Masking the time steps would be losing information about the presence or absence of news concomitant with prices 
Experimental results and discussions
We aim to evaluate our hierarchical neural model in the light of three main aspects  First, we asses the importance of the different sentence encoders to our end-to-end models and how it compares to transferring the sentence encoder from our two auxiliary TL tasks  Second, we ablate our proposed news relevance attention (NRA) component to evaluate its importance  Finally, we consider a model that takes into consideration only the price mode (unimodal), i e  ignoring any architecture related to the text mode 
Before we define the baselines to asses the three aspects described above, we review in the next section the scores of the trained TL tasks 
Auxiliary transfer learning tasks
This section reports the performance of the auxiliary TL tasks considered in this work  Our ultimate goal is to indicate that our scores are in line with previous works All the architectures presented in sec:transferlearning are trained for a maximum of 50 epochs using mini-batch SGD with Adam optimizer BIBREF48   Moreover, at the end of each epoch, we evaluate the validation scores, which are accuracy (Stanfor SNLI dataset) and F1 (RCV1 dataset), and save the weights with the best values  Aiming to seeped up training, we implement early stopping with patience set to 8 epochs  That is, if the validation scores do not improve for more than 10 epochs we halt the training  Finally, we use Glove pre-trained word embeddings BIBREF37 as fixed features 
tbl:tlevaluation compares our test scores with state-of-the-art (SOTA) results reported in previous works  We can see that our scores for the SNLI task are very close to state-of-the-art 
Regarding the RCV1 dataset, our results consider only the headline content for training, while the refereed works consider both the news headline and message body  The reason for training using only the headlines is that both tasks are learnt with the sole purpose of transferring the sentence encoders to our main volatility prediction task, whose textual input is restricted to headlines 
Training setup
During the training of our hierarchical neural model described in sub:HAN we took special care to guard against overfitting  To this aim, we completely separate 2016 and 2017 as the test set and report our results on this “unseen” set  The remaining data is further split into training (2007 to 2013) and validation (2014 to 2015)  The model convergence during training is monitored in the validation set  We monitor the validation score of our model at the end of each epoch and store the network weights if the validation scores improves between two consecutive epochs  Additionally, we use mini-batch SGD with Adam optimizer and early stopping with patience set to eight epochs  The hyperparameter tunning is performed using grid search 
All training is performed using the proposed global model approach described in sub:globalmodel, which learns a model that takes into account the features of all the 40 stocks of our corpus  Using this approach our training set has a total of 97,903 samples  Moreover, during the SGD mini-batch sampling the past $T$ days of price and news history tensors and each stock sample stock indicator are randomly selected from the set of all 40 stocks 
Stocks universe result
In order to evaluate the contributions of each component of our neural model described in sub:HAN and the effect of using textual data to predict the volatility, we report our results using the following baselines:
- News (unimodal price only): This baseline completely ablates (i e  removes) any architecture related to the news mode, considering only the price encoding and the stock embedding components  Using this ablation we aim to evaluate the influence of news to the volatility prediction problem 
+ News (End-to-end Sentence Encoders) - NRA: This baseline ablates our proposed new relevance attention (NRA) component, and instead, makes use of the same Daily Averaging method in BIBREF26 , BIBREF27 , where all fixed-sized headline representations on a given day are averaged without taking into account the relevance of each news  We evaluate this baseline for both BiLSTM attention (Att) and BiLSTM max-pooling (MP) sentence encoders  Here, our goal is to asses the true contribution of our NRA component in the case SOTA sentence encoders are taken into account 
+ News (End-to-End W-L Att Sentence Encoder) + NRA: The Word-Level Attention (W-L Att) sentence encoder implements an attention mechanism directly on top of word embeddings, and, as such, does not consider the order of words in a sentence  This baseline complements the previous one, i e  it evaluates the influence of the sentence encoder when our full specification is considered 
+ News (TL Sentence Encoders) + NRA: Makes use of sentence encoders of our two auxiliary TL tasks as fixed features  This baseline aims to address the following questions, namely: What dataset and models are more suitable to transfer to our specific volatility forecasting problem; How End-to-End models, which are trained on top of word embeddings, perform compared to sentence encoders transferred from other tasks 
tbl:comparativeallsectors summarizes the test scores for the ablations discussed above  Our best model is the + News (BiLSTM Att) + NRA, which is trained end-to-end and uses our full architecture  The second best model, i e  + News (BiLSTM MP) + NRA, ranks slightly lower and only differs form the best model in terms of the sentence encoder  The former sentence encoder uses an attention layer (subsec:bilstminneratt) and the the last a max-pooling layer (subsec:bilstmmaxpool), where both layers are placed on top of the LSTM hidden states of each word 
Importantly, our experiments show that using news and price (multimodal) to predict the volatility improves the scores by 11% (MSE) and 9% (MAE) when compared with the – News (price only unimodal) model that considers only price features as explanatory variables 
When comparing the performance of End-to-End models and the TL auxiliary tasks the following can be observed: The end-to-end models trained with the two SOTA sentence encoders perform better than transferring sentence encoder from both auxiliary tasks  However, our experiments show that the same does not hold for models trained end-to-end relying on the simpler WL-Att sentence encoder, which ignores the order of words in a sentence  In other words, considering the appropriate TL task, it is preferable to transfer a SOTA sentence encoder trained on a larger dataset than learning a less robust sentence encoder in an end-to-end fashion  Moreover, initially, we thought that being the RCV1 a financial domain corpus it would demonstrate a superior performance when compared to the SNLI dataset  Still, the SNLI transfers better than RCV1  We hypothesize that the text categorization task (RCV1 dataset) is not able to capture complex sentence structures at the same level required to perform natural language inference  Particularly to the volatility forecasting problem, our TL results corroborates the same findings in BIBREF17 , where it was shown that SNLI dataset attains the best sentence encoding for a broad range of pure NLP tasks, including, among other, text categorization and sentiment analysis 
Significantly, experimental results in tbl:comparativeallsectors clearly demonstrate that our proposed news relevance attention (NRA) outperforms the News Averaging method proposed in previous studies BIBREF26 , BIBREF27   Even when evaluating our NRA component in conjunction with the more elementary W-L Att sentence encoder it surpass the results of sophisticated sentence encoder using a News Averaging approach  In other words, our results strongly points to the advantage of discriminating noisy from impacting news and the effectiveness of learning to attend the most relevant news 
Having analyzed our best model, we now turn to its comparative performance with respect to the widely regarded GARCH(1,1) model described in sec:GARCH 
We asses our model performance relative to GARCH(1,1) using standard loss metrics (MSE and MAE) and the regression-based accuracy specified in eq:regressionloss and measured in terms of the coefficient of determination $R^2$   In addition, we evaluate our model across two different volatility proxies: Garman-Klass ( $\widehat{\sigma _{GK}}$ ) (eq:volgk) and Parkinson ( $\widehat{\sigma _{PK}}$ ) (eq:volpk)  We note that, as reviewed in sub:evalution, these two volatility proxies are statically efficient and proper estimators of the next day volatility 
tbl:garchallsectors reports the comparative performance among our best Price + News model (+ News BiLSTM (MP) + NRA), our Price only (unimodal) model and GARCH(1,1)  The results clearly demonstrate the superiority of our model, being more accurate than GRACH for both volatility proxies  We note that evaluating the GARCH(1,1) model relying on standard MSE and MAE error metrics should be taken with a grain of salt  BIBREF35 provides the background theory and arguments supporting $R^2$ as the metric of choice to evaluate the predictive power of a volatility model  In any case, the outperformance or our model with respect to GARCH(1,1) permeates all three metrics, name $R^2$ , $MSE$ and $MAE$  
Sector-level results
Company sectors are expected to have different risk levels, in the sense that each sector is driven by different types of news and economic cycles  Moreover, by performing a sector-level analysis we were initially interested in understanding if the outperformance of our model with respect to GARCH(1,1) was the result of a learning bias to a given sector or if, as turned out to be the case, the superior performance of our model spreads across a diversified portfolio of sectors 
In order to evaluate the performance per sector, we first separate the constituents stocks for each sector in tbl:stockuniverse  Then, we calculate the same metrics discussed in the previous section for each sector individually 
tbl:garcheachsector reports our experimental results segregated by sector  We observe that the GRACH model accuracy, measured using the $R^2$ score, has a high degree of variability among sectors  For example, the accuracy ranges from 0 15 to 0 44 for the HealthCare and Energy sector, respectively  This high degree of variability is in agreement with previous results reported in BIBREF16 , but in the context of long-term (quarterly) volatility predictions  Although the GARCH(1,1) accuracy is sector-dependent, without any exception, our model using price and news as input clearly outperforms GRACH sector-wise  This fact allow us to draw the following conclusions:
Our model outperformance is persistent across sectors, i e  the characteristics of the results reported in tbl:garchallsectors permeates all sectors, rather than being composed of a mix of outperforming and underperforming sector contributions  This fact provides a strong evidence that our model is more accurate than GARCH(1,1) 
The proposed Global model approach discussed in sub:globalmodel is able to generalize well, i e  the patterns learnt are not biased to a given sector or stock 
One of the limitations of our work is to rely on proxies for the volatility estimation  Although these proxies are handy if only open, high, low and close daily price data is available, having high frequency price data we could estimate the daily volatility using the sum of squared intraday returns to measure the true daily latent volatility  For example, in evaluating the performance for the one-day-ahead GARCH(1,1) Yen/Dollar exchange rate BIBREF35 reports $R^2$ values of 0 237 and 0 392 using hourly and five minutes sampled intraday returns, respectively  However, we believe that utilizing intraday data would further improve our model performance 
Since our experimental results demonstrate the key aspect of the news relevance attention to model architecture we observe that intraday data would arguably ameliorate the learning process  Having intraday data would allow us to pair each individual news release with the instantaneous market price reaction  Using daily data we are losing part of this information by only measuring the aggregate effect of all news to the one-day-ahead prediction 
Conclusion
We study the joint effect of stock news and prices on the daily volatility forecasting problem  To the best of our knowledge, this work is one of the first studies aiming to predict short-term (daily) rather than long-term (quarterly or yearly) volatility taking news and price as explanatory variables and using a comprehensive dataset of news headlines at the individual stock level  Our hierarchical end-to-end model benefits from state-of-the-art approaches to encode text information and to deal with two main challenges in correlating news with market reaction: news relevance and novelty  That is, to address the problem of how to attend the most important news based purely on its content (news relevance attention) and to take into account the temporal information of past news (temporal context)  Additionally, we propose a multi-stock mini-batch + stock embedding method suitable to model commonality among stocks 
The experimental results show that our multimodal approach outperforms the GARCH(1,1) volatility model, which is the most prevalent econometric model for daily volatility predictions  The outperformance being sector-wise and demonstrates the effectiveness of combining price and news for short-term volatility forecasting  The fact that we outperform GARCH(1,1) for all analyzed sectors confirms the robustness of our proposed architecture and evidences that our global model approach generalizes well 
We ablated (i e  removed) different components of our neural architecture to assess its most relevant parts  To this aim, we replaced our proposed news relevance attention layer, which aims to attend the most important news on a given day, with a simpler architecture proposed in the literature, which averages the daily news  We found that our attention layer improves the results  Additionally, we ablated all the architecture related to the news mode and found that news enhances the forecasting accuracy 
Finally, we evaluated different sentence encoders, including those transfered from other NLP tasks, and concluded that they achieve better performance as compared to a plain Word-level attention sentence encoder trained end-to-end  However, they do not beat state-of-the-art sentence encoders trained end-to-end 
In order to contribute to the literature of Universal Sentence Encoders, we evaluated the performance of transferring sentence encoders from two different tasks to the volatility prediction problem  We showed that models trained on the Natural Language Inference (NLI) task are more suitable to forecasting problems than a financial domain dataset (Reuters RCV1)  By analyzing different architectures, we showed that a BiLSTM with max-pooling for the SNLI dataset provides the best sentence encoder 
In the future, we plan to make use of intraday prices to better assess the predictive power of our proposed models  Additionally, we would further extend our analysis to other stock market sectors 

ground_truth: Energy with accuracy of 0.538

Energy

prompt_front: You are given a scientific article and a question. Answer the question as concisely as you can, using a single phrase or sentence if possible. If the question cannot be answered based on the information in the article, write "unanswerable". If the question is a yes/no question, answer "yes", "no", or "unanswerable". Do not provide any explanation.

Please answer the questions based on the text provided below. Which 7 Indian languages do they experiment with?
Context 2: INTRODUCTION
The idea of language identification is to classify a given audio signal into a particular class using a classification algorithm  Commonly language identification task was done using i-vector systems [1]  A very well known approach for language identification proposed by N  Dahek et al  [1] uses the GMM-UBM model to obtain utterance level features called i-vectors  Recent advances in deep learning [15,16] have helped to improve the language identification task using many different neural network architectures which can be trained efficiently using GPUs for large scale datasets  These neural networks can be configured in various ways to obtain better accuracy for language identification task  Early work on using Deep learning for language Identification was published by Pavel Matejka et al  [2], where they used stacked bottleneck features extracted from deep neural networks for language identification task and showed that the bottleneck features learned by Deep neural networks are better than simple MFCC or PLP features  Later the work by I  Lopez-Moreno et al  [3] from Google showed how to use Deep neural networks to directly map the sequence of MFCC frames into its language class so that we can apply language identification at the frame level  Speech signals will have both spatial and temporal information, but simple DNNs are not able to capture temporal information  Work done by J  Gonzalez-Dominguez et al  [4] by Google developed an LSTM based language identification model which improves the accuracy over the DNN based models  Work done by Alicia et al  [5] used CNNs to improve upon i-vector [1] and other previously developed systems  The work done by Daniel Garcia-Romero et al  [6] has used a combination of Acoustic model trained for speech recognition with Time-delay neural networks where they train the TDNN model by feeding the stacked bottleneck features from acoustic model to predict the language labels at the frame level  Recently X-vectors [7] is proposed for speaker identification task and are shown to outperform all the previous state of the art speaker identification algorithms and are also used for language identification by David Snyder et al  [8] 
In this paper, we explore multiple pooling strategies for language identification task  Mainly we propose Ghost-VLAD based pooling method for language identification  Inspired by the recent work by W  Xie et al  [9] and Y  Zhong et al  [10], we use Ghost-VLAD to improve the accuracy of language identification task for Indian languages  We explore multiple pooling strategies including NetVLAD pooling [11], Average pooling and Statistics pooling( as proposed in X-vectors [7]) and show that Ghost-VLAD pooling is the best pooling strategy for language identification  Our model obtains the best accuracy of 98 24%, and it outperforms all the other previously proposed pooling methods  We conduct all our experiments on 635hrs of audio data for 7 Indian languages collected from $\textbf {All India Radio}$ news channel  The paper is organized as follows  In section 2, we explain the proposed pooling method for language identification  In section 3, we explain our dataset  In section 4, we describe the experiments, and in section 5, we describe the results 
POOLING STRATEGIES
In any language identification model, we want to obtain utterance level representation which has very good language discriminative features  These representations should be compact and should be easily separable by a linear classifier  The idea of any pooling strategy is to pool the frame-level representations into a single utterance level representation  Previous works by [7] have used simple mean and standard deviation aggregation to pool the frame-level features from the top layer of the neural network to obtain the utterance level features  Recently [9] used VLAD based pooling strategy for speaker identification which is inspired from [10] proposed for face recognition  The NetVLAD [11] and Ghost-VLAD [10] methods are proposed for Place recognition and face recognition, respectively, and in both cases, they try to aggregate the local descriptors into global features  In our case, the local descriptors are features extracted from ResNet [15], and the global utterance level feature is obtained by using GhostVLAD pooling  In this section, we explain different pooling methods, including NetVLAD, Ghost-VLAD, Statistic pooling, and Average pooling 
POOLING STRATEGIES ::: NetVLAD pooling
The NetVLAD pooling strategy was initially developed for place recognition by R  Arandjelovic et al  [11]  The NetVLAD is an extension to VLAD [18] approach where they were able to replace the hard assignment based clustering with soft assignment based clustering so that it can be trained with neural network in an end to end fashion  In our case, we use the NetVLAD layer to map N local features of dimension D into a fixed dimensional vector, as shown in Figure 1 (Left side) 
The model takes spectrogram as an input and feeds into CNN based ResNet architecture  The ResNet is used to map the spectrogram into 3D feature map of dimension HxWxD  We convert this 3D feature map into 2D by unfolding H and W dimensions, creating a NxD dimensional feature map, where N=HxW  The NetVLAD layer is kept on top of the feature extraction layer of ResNet, as shown in Figure 1  The NetVLAD now takes N features vectors of dimension D and computes a matrix V of dimension KxD, where K is the number clusters in the NetVLAD layer, and D is the dimension of the feature vector  The matrix V is computed as follows 
Where $w_k$,$b_k$ and $c_k$ are trainable parameters for the cluster $k$ and V(j,k) represents a point in the V matrix for (j,k)th location  The matrix is constructed using the equation (1) where the first term corresponds to the soft assignment of the input $x_i$ to the cluster $c_k$, whereas the second term corresponds to the residual term which tells how far the input descriptor $x_i$ is from the cluster center $c_k$ 
POOLING STRATEGIES ::: GhostVLAD pooling
GhostVLAD is an extension of the NetVLAD approach, which we discussed in the previous section  The GhostVLAD model was proposed for face recognition by Y  Zhong [10]  GhostVLAD works exactly similar to NetVLAD except it adds Ghost clusters along with the NetVLAD clusters  So, now we will have a K+G number of clusters instead of K clusters  Where G is the number of ghost clusters, we want to add (typically 2-4)  The Ghost clusters are added to map any noisy or irrelevant content into ghost clusters and are not included during the feature aggregation stage, as shown in Figure 1 (Right side)  Which means that we compute the matrix V for both normal cluster K and ghost clusters G, but we will not include the vectors belongs to ghost cluster from V during concatenation of the features  Due to which, during feature aggregation stage the contribution of the noisy and unwanted features to normal VLAD clusters are assigned less weights while Ghost clusters absorb most of the weight  We illustrate this in Figure 1(Right Side), where the ghost clusters are shown in red color  We use Ghost clusters when we are computing the V matrix, but they are excluded during the concatenation stage  These concatenated features are fed into the projection layer, followed by softmax to predict the language label 
POOLING STRATEGIES ::: Statistic and average pooling
In statistic pooling, we compute the first and second order statistics of the local features from the top layer of the ResNet model  The 3-D feature map is unfolded to create N features of D dimensions, and then we compute the mean and standard deviation of all these N vectors and get two D dimensional vectors, one for mean and the other for standard deviation  We then concatenate these 2 features and feed it to the projection layer for predicting the language label 
In the Average pooling layer, we compute only the first-order statistics (mean) of the local features from the top layer of the CNN model  The feature map from the top layer of CNN is unfolded to create N features of D dimensions, and then we compute the mean of all these N vectors and get D dimensional representation  We then feed this feature to the projection layer followed by softmax for predicting the language label 
DATASET
In this section, we describe our dataset collection process  We collected and curated around 635Hrs of audio data for 7 Indian languages, namely Kannada, Hindi, Telugu, Malayalam, Bengali, and English  We collected the data from the All India Radio news channel where an actor will be reading news for about 5-10 mins  To cover many speakers for the dataset, we crawled data from 2010 to 2019  Since the audio is very long to train any deep neural network directly, we segment the audio clips into smaller chunks using Voice activity detector  Since the audio clips will have music embedded during the news, we use Inhouse music detection model to remove the music segments from the dataset to make the dataset clean and our dataset contains 635Hrs of clean audio which is divided into 520Hrs of training data containing 165K utterances and 115Hrs of testing data containing 35K utterances  The amount of audio data for training and testing for each of the language is shown in the table bellow 
EXPERIMENTS
In this section, we describe the feature extraction process and network architecture in detail  We use spectral features of 256 dimensions computed using 512 point FFT for every frame, and we add an energy feature for every frame giving us total 257 features for every frame  We use a window size of 25ms and frame shift of 10ms during feature computation  We crop random 5sec audio data from each utterance during training which results in a spectrogram of size 257x500 (features x number of features)  We use these spectrograms as input to our CNN model during training  During testing, we compute the prediction score irrespective of the audio length 
For the network architecture, we use ResNet-34 architecture, as described in [9]  The model uses convolution layers with Relu activations to map the spectrogram of size 257x500 input into 3D feature map of size 1x32x512  This feature cube is converted into 2D feature map of dimension 32x512 and fed into Ghost-VLAD/NetVLAD layer to generate a representation that has more language discrimination capacity  We use Adam optimizer with an initial learning rate of 0 01 and a final learning rate of 0 00001 for training  Each model is trained for 15 epochs with early stopping criteria 
For the baseline, we train an i-vector model using GMM-UBM  We fit a small classifier on top of the generated i-vectors to measure the accuracy  This model is referred as i-vector+svm   To compare our model with the previous state of the art system, we set up the x-vector language identification system [8]  The x-vector model used time-delay neural networks (TDNN) along with statistic-pooling  We use 7 layer TDNN architecture similar to [8] for training  We refer to this model as tdnn+stat-pool   Finally, we set up a Deep LSTM based language identification system similar to [4] but with little modification where we add statistics pooling for the last layers hidden activities before classification  We use 3 layer Bi-LSTM with 256 hidden units at each layer  We refer to this model as LSTM+stat-pool  We train our i-vector+svm and TDNN+stat-pool using Kaldi toolkit  We train our NetVLAD and GhostVLAD experiments using Keras by modifying the code given by [9] for language identification  We train the LSTM+stat-pool and the remaining experiments using Pytorch [14] toolkit, and we will opensource all the codes and data soon 
RESULTS
In this section, we compare the performance of our system with the recent state of the art language identification approaches  We also compare different pooling strategies and finally, compare the robustness of our system to the length of the input spectrogram during training  We visualize the embeddings generated by the GhostVLAD method and conclude that the GhostVLAD embeddings shows very good feature discrimination capabilities 
RESULTS ::: Comparison with different approaches
We compare our system performance with the previous state of the art language identification approaches, as shown in Table 2  The i-vector+svm system is trained using GMM-UBM models to generate i-vectors as proposed in [1]  Once the i-vectors are extracted, we fit SVM classifier to classify the audio  The TDNN+stat-pool system is trained with a statistics pooling layer and is called the x-vector system as proposed by David Snyder et al  [11] and is currently the state of the art language identification approach as far as our knowledge  Our methods outperform the state of the art x-vector system by absolute 1 88% improvement in F1-score, as shown in Table 2 
RESULTS ::: Comparison with different pooling techniques
We compare our approach with different pooling strategies in Table 3  We use ResNet as our base feature extraction network  We keep the base network the same and change only the pooling layers to see which pooling approach performs better for language identification task  Our experiments show that GhostVLAD pooling outperforms all the other pooling methods by achieving 98 43% F1-Score 
RESULTS ::: Duration analysis
To observe the performance of our method with different input durations, we conducted an experiment where we train our model on different input durations  Since our model uses ResNet as the base feature extractor, we need to feed fixed-length spectrogram  We conducted 4 different experiments where we trained the model using 2sec, 3sec, 4sec and 5sec spectrograms containing 200,300,400 and 500 frames respectively  We observed that the model trained with a 5sec spectrogram is the best model, as shown in Table 4 
RESULTS ::: Visualization of embeddings
We visualize the embeddings generated by our approach to see the effectiveness  We extracted 512-dimensional embeddings for our testing data and reduced the dimensionality using t-sne projection  The t-sne plot of the embeddings space is shown in Figure 3  The plot shows that the embeddings learned by our approach has very good discriminative properties
Conclusion
In this work, we use Ghost-VLAD pooling approach that was originally proposed for face recognition to improve language identification performance for Indian languages  We collected and curated 630 hrs audio data from news All India Radio news channel for 7 Indian languages  Our experimental results shows that our approach outperforms the previous state of the art methods by an absolute 1 88% F1-score  We have also conducted experiments with different pooling strategies proposed in the past, and the GhostVLAD pooling approach turns out to be the best approach for aggregating frame-level features into a single utterance level feature  Our experiments also prove that our approach works much better even if the input during training contains smaller durations  Finally, we see that the embeddings generated by our method has very good language discriminative features and helps to improve the performance of language identification 

ground_truth: Hindi, English, Kannada, Telugu, Assamese, Bengali and Malayalam

Kannada, Hindi, Telugu, Malayalam, Bengali,  English and Assamese (in table, missing in text)

prompt_front: You are given a scientific article and a question. Answer the question as concisely as you can, using a single phrase or sentence if possible. If the question cannot be answered based on the information in the article, write "unanswerable". If the question is a yes/no question, answer "yes", "no", or "unanswerable". Do not provide any explanation.

Please answer the questions based on the text provided below. How is the dataset annotated?
Context 3: Introduction
In recent years, there has been a movement to leverage social medial data to detect, estimate, and track the change in prevalence of disease  For example, eating disorders in Spanish language Twitter tweets BIBREF0 and influenza surveillance BIBREF1   More recently, social media has been leveraged to monitor social risks such as prescription drug and smoking behaviors BIBREF2 , BIBREF3 , BIBREF4 as well as a variety of mental health disorders including suicidal ideation BIBREF5 , attention deficient hyperactivity disorder BIBREF6 and major depressive disorder BIBREF7   In the case of major depressive disorder, recent efforts range from characterizing linguistic phenomena associated with depression BIBREF8 and its subtypes e g , postpartum depression BIBREF5 , to identifying specific depressive symptoms BIBREF9 , BIBREF10 e g , depressed mood  However, more research is needed to better understand the predictive power of supervised machine learning classifiers and the influence of feature groups and feature sets for efficiently classifying depression-related tweets to support mental health monitoring at the population-level BIBREF11  
This paper builds upon related works toward classifying Twitter tweets representing symptoms of major depressive disorder by assessing the contribution of lexical features (e g , unigrams) and emotion (e g , strongly negative) to classification performance, and by applying methods to eliminate low-value features 
METHODS
Specifically, we conducted a feature ablation study to assess the informativeness of each feature group and a feature elimination study to determine the optimal feature sets for classifying Twitter tweets  We leveraged an existing, annotated Twitter dataset that was constructed based on a hierarchical model of depression-related symptoms BIBREF12 , BIBREF13   The dataset contains 9,473 annotations for 9,300 tweets  Each tweet is annotated as no evidence of depression (e g , “Citizens fear an economic depression") or evidence of depression (e g , “depressed over disappointment")  If a tweet is annotated evidence of depression, then it is further annotated with one or more depressive symptoms, for example, depressed mood (e g , “feeling down in the dumps"), disturbed sleep (e g , “another restless night"), or fatigue or loss of energy (e g , “the fatigue is unbearable") BIBREF10   For each class, every annotation (9,473 tweets) is binarized as the positive class e g , depressed mood=1 or negative class e g , not depressed mood=0 
Features
Furthermore, this dataset was encoded with 7 feature groups with associated feature values binarized (i e , present=1 or absent=0) to represent potentially informative features for classifying depression-related classes  We describe the feature groups by type, subtype, and provide one or more examples of words representing the feature subtype from a tweet:
lexical features, unigrams, e g , “depressed”;
syntactic features, parts of speech, e g , “cried” encoded as V for verb;
emotion features, emoticons, e g , :( encoded as SAD;
demographic features, age and gender e g , “this semester” encoded as an indicator of 19-22 years of age and “my girlfriend” encoded as an indicator of male gender, respectively;
sentiment features, polarity and subjectivity terms with strengths, e g , “terrible” encoded as strongly negative and strongly subjective;
personality traits, neuroticism e g , “pissed off” implies neuroticism;
LIWC Features, indicators of an individual's thoughts, feelings, personality, and motivations, e g , “feeling” suggestions perception, feeling, insight, and cognitive mechanisms experienced by the Twitter user 
A more detailed description of leveraged features and their values, including LIWC categories, can be found in BIBREF10  
Based on our prior initial experiments using these feature groups BIBREF10 , we learned that support vector machines perform with the highest F1-score compared to other supervised approaches  For this study, we aim to build upon this work by conducting two experiments: 1) to assess the contribution of each feature group and 2) to determine the optimal percentile of top ranked features for classifying Twitter tweets in the depression schema hierarchy 
Feature Contribution
Feature ablation studies are conducted to assess the informativeness of a feature group by quantifying the change in predictive power when comparing the performance of a classifier trained with the all feature groups versus the performance without a particular feature group  We conducted a feature ablation study by holding out (sans) each feature group and training and testing the support vector model using a linear kernel and 5-fold, stratified cross-validation  We report the average F1-score from our baseline approach (all feature groups) and report the point difference (+ or -) in F1-score performance observed by ablating each feature set 
By ablating each feature group from the full dataset, we observed the following count of features - sans lexical: 185, sans syntactic: 16,935, sans emotion: 16,954, sans demographics: 16,946, sans sentiment: 16,950, sans personality: 16,946, and sans LIWC: 16,832  In Figure 1, compared to the baseline performance, significant drops in F1-scores resulted from sans lexical for depressed mood (-35 points), disturbed sleep (-43 points), and depressive symptoms (-45 points)  Less extensive drops also occurred for evidence of depression (-14 points) and fatigue or loss of energy (-3 points)  In contrast, a 3 point gain in F1-score was observed for no evidence of depression  We also observed notable drops in F1-scores for disturbed sleep by ablating demographics (-7 points), emotion (-5 points), and sentiment (-5 points) features  These F1-score drops were accompanied by drops in both recall and precision  We found equal or higher F1-scores by removing non-lexical feature groups for no evidence of depression (0-1 points), evidence of depression (0-1 points), and depressive symptoms (2 points) 
Unsurprisingly, lexical features (unigrams) were the largest contributor to feature counts in the dataset  We observed that lexical features are also critical for identifying depressive symptoms, specifically for depressed mood and for disturbed sleep  For the classes higher in the hierarchy - no evidence of depression, evidence of depression, and depressive symptoms - the classifier produced consistent F1-scores, even slightly above the baseline for depressive symptoms and minor fluctuations of change in recall and precision when removing other feature groups suggesting that the contribution of non-lexical features to classification performance was limited  However, notable changes in F1-score were observed for the classes lower in the hierarchy including disturbed sleep and fatigue or loss of energy  For instance, changes in F1-scores driven by both recall and precision were observed for disturbed sleep by ablating demographics, emotion, and sentiment features, suggesting that age or gender (“mid-semester exams have me restless”), polarity and subjective terms (“lack of sleep is killing me”), and emoticons (“wide awake :(”) could be important for both identifying and correctly classifying a subset of these tweets 
Feature Elimination
Feature elimination strategies are often taken 1) to remove irrelevant or noisy features, 2) to improve classifier performance, and 3) to reduce training and run times  We conducted an experiment to determine whether we could maintain or improve classifier performances by applying the following three-tiered feature elimination approach:
Reduction We reduced the dataset encoded for each class by eliminating features that occur less than twice in the full dataset 
Selection We iteratively applied Chi-Square feature selection on the reduced dataset, selecting the top percentile of highest ranked features in increments of 5 percent to train and test the support vector model using a linear kernel and 5-fold, stratified cross-validation 
Rank We cumulatively plotted the average F1-score performances of each incrementally added percentile of top ranked features  We report the percentile and count of features resulting in the first occurrence of the highest average F1-score for each class 
All experiments were programmed using scikit-learn 0 18 
The initial matrices of almost 17,000 features were reduced by eliminating features that only occurred once in the full dataset, resulting in 5,761 features  We applied Chi-Square feature selection and plotted the top-ranked subset of features for each percentile (at 5 percent intervals cumulatively added) and evaluated their predictive contribution using the support vector machine with linear kernel and stratified, 5-fold cross validation 
In Figure 2, we observed optimal F1-score performance using the following top feature counts: no evidence of depression: F1: 87 (15th percentile, 864 features), evidence of depression: F1: 59 (30th percentile, 1,728 features), depressive symptoms: F1: 55 (15th percentile, 864 features), depressed mood: F1: 39 (55th percentile, 3,168 features), disturbed sleep: F1: 46 (10th percentile, 576 features), and fatigue or loss of energy: F1: 72 (5th percentile, 288 features) (Figure 1)  We note F1-score improvements for depressed mood from F1: 13 at the 1st percentile to F1: 33 at the 20th percentile 
We observed peak F1-score performances at low percentiles for fatigue or loss of energy (5th percentile), disturbed sleep (10th percentile) as well as depressive symptoms and no evidence of depression (both 15th percentile) suggesting fewer features are needed to reach optimal performance  In contrast, peak F1-score performances occurred at moderate percentiles for evidence of depression (30th percentile) and depressed mood (55th percentile) suggesting that more features are needed to reach optimal performance  However, one notable difference between these two classes is the dramatic F1-score improvements for depressed mood i e , 20 point increase from the 1st percentile to the 20th percentile compared to the more gradual F1-score improvements for evidence of depression i e , 11 point increase from the 1st percentile to the 20th percentile  This finding suggests that for identifying depressed mood a variety of features are needed before incremental gains are observed 
RESULTS
From our annotated dataset of Twitter tweets (n=9,300 tweets), we conducted two feature studies to better understand the predictive power of several feature groups for classifying whether or not a tweet contains no evidence of depression (n=6,829 tweets) or evidence of depression (n=2,644 tweets)  If there was evidence of depression, we determined whether the tweet contained one or more depressive symptoms (n=1,656 tweets) and further classified the symptom subtype of depressed mood (n=1,010 tweets), disturbed sleep (n=98 tweets), or fatigue or loss of energy (n=427 tweets) using support vector machines  From our prior work BIBREF10 and in Figure 1, we report the performance for prediction models built by training a support vector machine using 5-fold, stratified cross-validation with all feature groups as a baseline for each class  We observed high performance for no evidence of depression and fatigue or loss of energy and moderate performance for all remaining classes 
Discussion
We conducted two feature study experiments: 1) a feature ablation study to assess the contribution of feature groups and 2) a feature elimination study to determine the optimal percentile of top ranked features for classifying Twitter tweets in the depression schema hierarchy 
Future Work
Our next step is to address the classification of rarer depressive symptoms suggestive of major depressive disorder from our dataset and hierarchy including inappropriate guilt, difficulty concentrating, psychomotor agitation or retardation, weight loss or gain, and anhedonia BIBREF15 , BIBREF16   We are developing a population-level monitoring framework designed to estimate the prevalence of depression (and depression-related symptoms and psycho-social stressors) over millions of United States-geocoded tweets  Identifying the most discriminating feature sets and natural language processing classifiers for each depression symptom is vital for this goal 
Conclusions
In summary, we conducted two feature study experiments to assess the contribution of feature groups and to determine the optimal percentile of top ranked features for classifying Twitter tweets in the depression schema hierarchy  From these experiments, we conclude that simple lexical features and reduced feature sets can produce comparable results to the much larger feature dataset 
Acknowledgments
Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Library of Medicine of the [United States] National Institutes of Health under award numbers K99LM011393 and R00LM011393  This study was granted an exemption from review by the University of Utah Institutional Review Board (IRB 00076188)  Note that in order to protect tweeter anonymity, we have not reproduced tweets verbatim  Example tweets shown were generated by the researchers as exemplars only  Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers of this paper for their valuable comments 

ground_truth: no evidence of depression, depressed mood, disturbed sleep, fatigue or loss of energy

The annotations are based on evidence of depression and further annotated by the depressive symptom if there is evidence of depression