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MKULTRA Subproject

Mditional Poried—Ties:EctendedAllotnent Apont ofAuthorizstioas Covereà To Mmber Coligation

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TO: TSS/OC

1. Date of Obligatioa:..N/A

2. Purpose of Project To study open fvoting records or  registered voters over a year period.

3.-Progress to Date: Project being. initiated

4Expiration DateN/A

FROM:-TSS/CD

Reom B-10,

12702

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Cost Account1125. 1109.1902

Object Class.

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MEMORANDUM FORI CHIEF, FINANCE DIVIBIOU

Ted/audget officer

ot , roet 127 Invoica No. 1, A11otaont 2125-1009-1902

1. Invoice No. 1 ia attached covoring the atove subproject. Panont slould bo rade es follovat

Cashier'a chock in tho cmount of \$7,490.00 dcsvm co a popke payaklo to theB

2. ghe check should bo forwarded to Chief, TSD/Hesearch Branch, through TsD/Budget officer, no later than Thursday, 10 Noveuber 196o.

3. This is a final invoice. Bovover; eince it is anticipated that additional funde vill be obligated for this project, the files shovld not be closed.

Chief T8D/Research Branch

Atteched: Invoico  Gartiricatione

31 19

LCTARE AVAILASLE 1125-109-1912

Dietribution; Orig & 2 - Addresseo

>1TSD/FASS1

CHECR22 ADUNT OF \$149 RECENVEL

28 0otober 1960

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CERTIPICATIONS

(1) It is hereby certified that thie is Invoice No. l ayplying to Subproject No. l27 of HLTRA, that perfonmance is satisfactory, that servicea are being sccocmplished in accordance vith mutual agreemente, that a detailed agenda of the payments and receipts is on file in TsD/RB, that this bill is just and correct and that payment thoreof has not yet been made.

Datei

(2) It is hereby cortifiod that thie invoice applles to Subproject No. 127 of MalrRA vhich waa duly approved, and that the project is boing carriod out in accordance vith the memorandumc 13 April l953 froa the DCI to the pD/A, and the extenslon of this authority in subeoquent aemoranda,

Rasearch Director

Dator

For Services

INYOICE

\$7,490.00

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March 6, 1962

cf Accounting of B5

Cf This is a true statemen ot thonacouiting of

Prepared by:

I have exaained and approrad the submitte expenditures.

TSS/Cheaioaf, Diviston

12705

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Treasurers Check No.-86223, dated NovemberZml960. in the amoupt of \$7,490.00, drawn-on the payable to the B

Receipt is hereby acknowledged of the following check:

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MEMORANDUM FOR: THE\_ RECORD

Conference with Chiel (( Regarding Regarding

g 1. At 0945-this date I met with Chief to brief him upon support of research proposal. who had only incideptal interest\_in the proposal, was obviousiy/intrigued by the and its A B

2 mentioned that the desks had been given increased responsibility for He impressed me as a creative thinker, and began, during the talk, to spin a number of feasible operations-that would use

expressed the desire to write up some of\_bis ideas in the form of projects.I-offered thecounter-suggestion that once he had his mental ducks in a row, it might prove useful for him to meet and others froghere-in

127 07

17 October 1960

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MEMORANDUM FOR:THE RECORD SUBJECT: :-Project MKULTRA,-Subproject-127

1. It is requested that Subproject 127 be approved to B support the research work-of to study the open voting records registered voters over-a-fifty year-period.

B 3.-This project will be funded through\_tha for security and cover purposes. The accounting-for-funds expended sball conforu to the established procedures of that organization.Title to any permanent equipment shall remain with the in
lieu of overhead charges.

4.-The total-cost\_of-this project for-a period of one year is estimated to be \$7,490.00 as-indicated in the attached

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budget. Charges should be made against Allotment Number 1525-

5. No cleared or witting persons are concerned with the

conduct of this project.

Chief TSD/Research -Branch

APPROVED FOR OBLIGATION OF FUNDST

Research-Director

Date: GR0CT-1060

Attachment: Proposal

Distribution:- Original-only

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Gentlemen.

Enclosed please find-10 copies-of tho\_outline\_for-our project "Voting". for
which we ask you for a support -to the amount of dollars 7,490. -If-you find it.
possible to finnce-this research-it wilt boexecuted. by-ny research assistant as principal inyestigator-under my supervision as head of thel -- The present research project is different from, although related to, the. -
one presented briefly to yow earlier. The reason is that wo have in-the mean
time discovered the-existence-of-this unique documentary matorial,-which-is de
scribed in the butline, and we-think that an analysis thereof:should proceed end hence
benefit a studyof contemporary.political changes..I may note- that wo have not
asked any other foundation to-support this project. So far our experience with foundations has been that they react unfavorably to rescarch in the field

I remain at your-disposal-for. any further informaticn you might desire regarding the present projoct..

Sincerəly yours,

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MEMORARTUN PORI COMPTROLLER

ATTENTICGN

1 Fipance Division

BUBJECT

NKUIRA, SubproJect 127

Under the authority granted in the memorandun dated 13 April 1953 froa the ICI to the Do/A, and the extonsion of thie authority in subsdquent megoranle, Subproject 127 has been epproved and \$7,h90.00 of the ovor-all NO/LTRA project funda, hes been obligatod to cover the subprojeet's expeases. Tbis oblightion of funds should bo charied to Allotment 1525-1009-1902. i

A

TSD/Research Branch

27 19 960

APPDOVED FOR OBLIOATION OF FUNDS:

LCERTEY TT FUNDS TE AVADATE ORUGATICN 81 o11251029190

A

Reseerch Director

Deter

Distributioni

Orig à 2 - Addrcssee

1-TSD/0 >1- TSD/PASS

0

127-10

6 October 1960

AUIHONENG OFRICE

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MEMORANDUM FOR:THE RECORD

SUBJET: Approvel of Funds to Support Study of Voting Behavior

A ATTENDANCE Dr8. C Messrs

SumMAgy1. Request for \$7,490.00 to support the proposal to study

2.This-study of-voting is an attempt to do a longitudinal study of the factors that affect the voting of people over a considerable period of tire, The.results of the study could contribute to In addition the data-represents a unique gold mine of information to study some of the fundamental behavioral\_characteristics\_of people.

3. Fuinds will be affected through the mechanisa.Project participants will renain unvitting of true sponsor.

TSD/Research Branch

Distribution: Or1g & 2TSD/RB

A TSD/RB/29 Sept 60)

28 September 1960

127 11

6.C,f

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MEMORANDUM TO:\_SId\_G.

SUBJECT: Project Proposal, Category B.

Attached is a proposal from which we encouraged during our visit there last October. You will note In the comment. from that caution is recommended, principally for security reosons, and only secondarily for methodological reasons. His polnt \_is well taken as are the detalled criticisms by

My predisposition to support this category B proposal rests on three considerations: o) methodologiçal questions do not outweigh the bosic potential this project has, b) lengthy correspondence with the investigator hos us partially commilted to some kind of support, and c) the small amount of money requested is a good inyestment in internotionol research

I do not believe we can be damaged institutionally by supporting this kind of reseorch. I recommend that it be funded.

127-B

September 15, 1960

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To bozin with, lot me excress av unstinting and unqualified enthusiaam for the genoral concept behind the projoot. Though we know very woll that there is little hope-that we will ever be able to conduct a real longituiinal study, oovoring several decades, we have often spoken about the need for suoh a atudy Shie proposal fills a gao; it doss so bv utili,ine date-already in existence. The costs seed ninissl, the opoortunity unime, and the promise Rroat. The data oueht to be.exnloitad.

To excloit fully the uniqus data requires, however, a moro completo etatement of what the analysis of "tha individual act of voting" contributes over and above-what\_oould be inferred from an analvsia-of voting stutistioa by election dietriots, differentiated according theiriecology. Usually the imoact of the:"politiosl- situation" on various oategories of votera ia inforred from aggrerfate data. Such inferenos can be made only on tha assumption that the faotors rovealed on the azzregate level operate on the whole and as a rule on tho individual level as well. The proposad oroject offers an opportunity to test this assumntion bv examing a series of\_election.: It is capable\_of locating the individusls (i.e. their social status) xho acoount -for heizhtened or slaokened interest and for changes in the alienmente

I should like to ure- that set out explicitly to teat this polnt: aro deductions-made (rom ageregate dita (nlsction statistios) throueh correlational snalvsis confirmed by the data from a panel\_whore the voting hi torv of individual voters and of homogeneois oategoriles can be traced. Whatover his answar, the-stdy would be an imcortant mothodolocical contribution\_to the study of voting behavior, whose imolications would be:praotioally unlimited. Researchors lackine-oanel data of the kind available ine would then have some measure cf the-confideace they could place in analyses ep based on corrolations hen the.pooulations studied-over sims are not necessarily identicsl.

In this-gane\_vein, I should like to ses a somowhat clearer indioation of inst hor the panel data zill be emoloved. For example, the oroposal (page 4) men-ions th- intluence of sarly-comritmonts on later behavior as a factor contributins o stebility or instability.I doubt that we need to reiterate the finding that the voting history of an-individual more often exhibits an underlying
stabilitv than erratio changes.Mat we need to sxamine-in-greater detail
is the fact that rolitical chanza is alwavs the resilt of two faotors whioh have not as vet been sufficlently extr'oatedt individual turnover and population succession. I would be interested in knowinz hor imoortant ohanres in the voting conietion (due to aging and mortality, migration, activation of non-voters, eto.) Asebomrared with individual switches.
CF

Firth-rmore, I vould be imenselv interested in a comoarison of atable vo'ars whos- carty lovalties shod no change and floaters who switohed one or more times. Ho important are events and nersnnalitias is opposed to atatus tx nllity hints at this, but there-ls a tendenoy to cnDis: conitions that make fo stability in the party systom with faotors that nake for stsbilitv in the-inlividual.- The-importance of keeping the two sensrate is lndicated bv a crocosition,thit recently has found wide aooeptanos. nen-lv that the floatera are an element that aocounts for stability in the ayatom

12718

August 191960

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because they eot ae "mediators" and beoause party.appcals are-addressod to the temuolsly committed"oenter."

The hvoothesired relationship betveen turnout and consensus, on the one hand. and the Importance of difforent kinds of issues and personalitiss, on the other. feacinates me, eapeoially when the differentiil, imoect of-issuss,oersonalitios, ato. pn difforent categories of soolal status is oonstdered.

I havo the followipe reserrations, The proposal fails to indioate fully how tho panelx dooien is auriisd to be aoplind to the oroblem of generations and politioal chango. The questions given as. illustrations-(e.g. ooints l and 2 on page 4) tend to ephasise statio and oross-acotional nnalveia of aggregate date. I would like to see a olearer indioation of how data about individual voters will be employed.

Nor doss it atrike me that a teohnioally refined analysis of the press and other politioal reoorde, -hioh tx of neoessity deals only with a highly select sample, would five a more roliable assessment cf the "political situation that dominated an election than the usolcompetent histories, The enorgies and resouroes could be better employed in amore oomplete statistloal analysis of the votinz behavior, hich might in turn olarify the forcos which moved the leotorate.

I am altogeth-r at a loss kmxtmxx at tho mehion of"records of personal political discussion." The desoription of the data gives no hint or how suoh a reoord is tobe cbteiped.

Similarly. I fail to see how the "emergenoe of leaderahip-followorship. traits" is to be exolorod. hat is the roferenos to the records of approximately 3,000 persons?: I think that this kind of long-term canel design shouid not be used to gage what happens during a single oampaign. the Lasarsfeld-type of panel, based on interriewe, is a much better tool for this. :

The sahole firure of ?5,Oo0 soems entirelv rpasonable in viow of coculation nortality and tho number of\_variables toyexplored. But I am oonfused about the 3,Oo0 figure mentionsd on naga 4 (bottom)? Also, I take it \_that individual voting rocords are to oollated with individual consue data, Yet, page 2  A refara to the voting reoornis of all elirfble voters but montione census reaords, for votere\_only.

A rather minor point related to the statoment on the bottom or pago 3. Do the oriteria reallv eliminate only 5 to l0 oer cent of the male adult population. Elimination of. ths ?1 to 30 vear age grouo would, in view of the then preveling life exceotancv, out the finure mch higher.

Let me summarlre that, notwithstending the mary questlons I have, the studv fascinates me. tt majer innovetion wouldlthe use or individual data in a long-run lonettudinal study.I should like the hypotheses whioh relate to the outoomo of epeoi fio alotions and to major politioal tronds pauirit wgaie the panal desien to be spelled out in greater detail. i It would thon te possisle to tast them both on the individual data and on olcotien statiatios forvarious distrlots and regions in the aluoidstion or findinzs obtained by the more conventional sethods of political coology evwike panel data would,-in my mind, aaks a major contribution to nowledge.

127 13

C Ci

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Comments on Progogal submitted by Cf

This Is o most Interesting proposal by -one that has great potentlal for contributing to knowledge of voting behovior because of the unique, to my knowledge, ond thitherto avolloble dato. It would appear to give somewhat more comprehersive informotlon concoming the "individual act of voting." Thot would be possible In ee Although the project would appear very promising, contribute to our present knowfedge, as with any proposol, there ore certain reservotions felt by myself.

1. Belng of a coutlous nature, I would be less optimistic than the investigotor concerning the completeness of the racords. This in no sense is o chollenge to the Investlgaior's statement, but rother a suspicion that such records are not olways kept as completely os one would hope. This is reflected somewhot in his comments on poge 3 In relation to the "eligible voter." He stotes the quolificotions of voting is thot the voter met be "male, 30 years oc over, own his ploce of residence; ond live In the district one year." On page 2, he states that in the period these districts have a total population of 150, 000. The populatlon for the present study will be opproximately 25,000 voters In this unlverse." The restrictions of the ellgible voter, according to the Investigator, would only olimlnate 5 to l0% of the male odult population. If the entire population were Worouu, which l ossume means men, women, ond children, then I wonder If percentoge of 5 to l0% Is not somewhat low; and, also, that he may not hove trouble obtalning hls 25, 000 voters. Thls Is a guess on my port but I would think worth osking for further guldance,

2. Investigator stotes on poge1, "the avallobility of these records means that the polltical history of avery voter in a glven district can be followed objectively and in detail for a parlod of up toyears." We reolly should remember that to be eliglble to vote, the mole must be-30 years and own a house. The questlon that Immediately hit me was how many elections. could such on Indlyidual participate in? If 30 is the minimum age, we obvlously will not have too many who have lived to the age ofand are still active voters, and this is the only way we can get on Indivldual record over a perlod of years. He must own o home at the oge of 30 which certalnly would depend on the economic situatlon In during the years Indlcated. Thus, we must be concierned with the percentage of populatlon that would meet the\_qualiflcations ot 30; how many electlons would occur, how long does the average voter llve during this perlod. All such questions certalnly bear on size and type of sample that one can obtaln from the data avalloble and should be known before the study progresses too far, or rather before the becomes too deeply Involved, In my mind, these questions must have been satisfled to the Investigotor but unfortunately they are not too well reflected here In the proposal, It would seem reosonoble to have these questions answéred first, elther the first phase of the study or in a revisod research proposol.

3. On poge 2, under Populotions to Study, the investigotor mentions selecting eight politicol subdlvisions from He points out that these politicol districts represent a full political spectrum foday, ranging from conservotive to Communist, He then proposes to use these districts for the datapyears old. However, in the rest of the proposol, he does not state, ot leost clearly to me, technlques by which one would analyze the dota In relation to present politicol activities or voter behavior, There would be approximatelyyeors intervening which would not bo taken

CfO

127

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Into consIderatlon according to thls proposal, thus, if concluslons were to be drawn upon the detalled data fromit would have to be based on tha assumptlon thot the Intervenlngyears had Tittle effect on presont day bohovicr. Ths Investigator undoubtedly has some rotlonal here that has escaped me.

4. Soctlon D, questlons the study, Present research, according to the Investigator, will be concerned with soclal status, ecological patterning, ,and polltical situations and how they are corrolated with incceased polltical involvement which he stotes symbolizes the arowth of damocracy. Social status, he says will be deflned In terms of occupation, oge maritol conditions, family size and conditlon of residonce. Thls, I bolleve, Is to be drawn from the ceraus data--ogoin without havlng seen the dota. I wonder whather such things as condition of rosldence wlll be cecorded, or If so, how moaningful It will be. In oddition, soclal status térm, hero, evldently Is not used in the sense that one might use it In this country. The population he s studylng Is already pretty well defined, particularly with the raulrement that the voter own his place of residence. Another point In relotion to the status structure of soclety is roised os a result of the investigator's statement on page 4, He indicates thot the\_relatlon of the changing status structure ond development of political partles wlll also be examined. Thot, as the gap batween the top and the bottom of stotus structure of a joclety narrows, thls soclety bacomes more homogeneour In terms of social closs. The pollticalstructure becomes more differentlated and more political choices bacome posslble. That the eligibility requirements have alreody narjowed status structure to qulte a homogeneous sample is stoted bafore and l am not sure that à groat doal could be expected from this porticulor hypothesis, although it might be Interesting to see what comes out of It.

5. The\_pollticol sItuotion mentioned In the some purograph In section O. Is to be deflned by content analysis of newspapers. Again, the reader sincerely hopes that o) the materlal Is avallable from and b) thot such an analys!s Is meaningful. Nowspapens would, at that time, porticularly, be directed to a rélatively smoll populotion, thelr Inflvence might wall be questloned. This factor would, of course, be dependent on the literacy rate during that porlod and the circulation of the nwspapors.-In oddition, some undertanding would ba necessary to determine the oblectivlty of newspapers reflecting the characteristics of the candidates or even thelr Interpretatlon of the statement of the Issues. Even today, wa doubt that all newspapers raflect In, an equally oblective fashion. Certainty, other sources mlght supplement this Information. 2

6. The Investigator hopes to discover foctors contributing to voter's'stability and Instabllity,"os weli as the Inflvence of "oarly commitments on later behavlor" and the "emergence of leodershlp-fellowship tralts. " It appears that this study may odd some Informatlon, although it Is doubted that much can be found on these records. Also, it is doubtful thet we con leorn much by our concept of leodership-fellowshlp traits from such data. This particular sectlon Is very vogue and glves us very little Information about how these factors would be explored. The Investigator Intimotes that a partial answer to this question is avollobility of records, of peronol political disçussions. Thls is the first time theso racords have been mentioned and the references not at ail clear. Evidently, such records are avallable for 3, 000 people, but one wonders what sort of record orewould have of personal political dlscussions overyears ogo.

The obove portlon of thls memorandum may seem relatively condemnatory of the study. This is not the impreuslon that I wish to leave. We have there, os stated bofore,

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an opportunity to examine records hltherto not avalloble. They appear to be sufficlently unique and complote that they may hold promise in contributing to the general fleld concerning voting bahaviors. It Is recommended that very serlous corsideration be glven to elther requssting revislon of thls proposal answering the questions ralsed above, or to grant money for a more comprehensive examination of the vóting records to determine exactly what can be feasibly accomplished with the dato.

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August 11, 1960

Dear Mre

I am sure that I would be very glad to follow the decision reached by your other advisor in connection with the proposal o

My own reaction to the project is that it might possibly be\_ considered a little inappropriate for an American foundation to participate in a study of voting in a friendly foreign nation. If some of the results of the study turned out to be surprising and politically important, it is conceivable to me that a question might be raised concerning the support of the study by funda coming from outside the country. I am not absolutely certain either\_what\_techniques would be employed in completing the study although I would presume that these have been worked out with some care. :

In summary, my per sonal feeling is that I would move rather slowly in authorizing this request.

Sincerely-yours.

C Cf