query: One in two surgical randomized controlled trials are discontinued early.

title: Discontinuation and non-publication of surgical randomised controlled trials: observational study

text:
OBJECTIVE To determine the rate of early discontinuation and non-publication of randomised controlled trials involving patients undergoing surgery.
 DESIGN Cross sectional observational study of registered and published trials.
 SETTING Randomised controlled trials of interventions in patients undergoing a surgical procedure.
 DATA SOURCES The ClinicalTrials.gov database was searched for interventional trials registered between January 2008 and December 2009 using the keyword "surgery". Recruitment status was extracted from the ClinicalTrials.gov database. A systematic search for studies published in peer reviewed journals was performed; if they were not found, results posted on the ClinicalTrials.gov results database were sought. Email queries were sent to trial investigators of discontinued and unpublished completed trials if no reason for the respective status was disclosed.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Trial discontinuation before completion and non-publication after completion. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of funding source on publication status, with adjustment for intervention type and trial size.
 RESULTS Of 818 registered trials found using the keyword "surgery", 395 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 21% (81/395) were discontinued early, most commonly owing to poor recruitment (44%, 36/81). The remaining 314 (79%) trials proceeded to completion, with a publication rate of 66% (208/314) at a median time of 4.9 (interquartile range 4.0-6.0) years from study completion to publication search. A further 6% (20/314) of studies presented results on ClinicalTrials.gov without a corresponding peer reviewed publication. Industry funding did not affect the rate of discontinuation (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.55) but was associated with a lower odds of publication for completed trials (0.43, 0.26 to 0.72). Investigators' email addresses for trials with an uncertain fate were identified for 71.4% (10/14) of discontinued trials and 83% (101/122) of unpublished studies. Only 43% (6/14) and 20% (25/122) replies were received. Email responses for completed trials indicated 11 trials in press, five published studies (four in non-indexed peer reviewed journals), and nine trials remaining unpublished.
 CONCLUSIONS One in five surgical randomised controlled trials are discontinued early, one in three completed trials remain unpublished, and investigators of unpublished studies are frequently not contactable. This represents a waste of research resources and raises ethical concerns regarding hidden clinical data and futile participation by patients with its attendant risks. To promote future efficiency and transparency, changes are proposed to research governance frameworks to overcome these concerns.

title: Surgical versus medical treatment with cyclooxygenase inhibitors for symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants.

text:
BACKGROUND Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) with significant left to right shunt in preterm infants increases morbidity and mortality. Early closure of the ductus arteriosus may be achieved pharmacologically using cyclooxygenase inhibitors or by surgery. The efficacy of both treatment modalities is well established. However, the preferred initial treatment of a symptomatic PDA in a preterm infant, surgical ligation or treatment with indomethacin, has not been well established.
 OBJECTIVES To compare the effect of surgical ligation of PDA vs. medical treatment with cyclooxygenase inhibitors (using indomethacin, ibuprofen, or mefenamic acid), each used as the initial treatment, on neonatal mortality in preterm infants with a symptomatic PDA.    SEARCH STRATEGY The standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group was used. This included search of electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 2, 2007), MEDLINE (1966 - July 2007), CINAHL (1982 - July 2007), EMBASE (1980 - July 2007); and hand search of abstracts of Pediatric Academic Societies annual meetings published in Pediatric Research (1990 - April 2002) or on line from May 2002 -July 2007. No language restrictions were applied.    SELECTION CRITERIA All trials 1) using randomized or quasi-randomized patient allocation, 2) in preterm infants < 37 weeks gestational age or low-birth-weight infants (< 2500 grams) with symptomatic PDA in the neonatal period (< 28 days) and 3) comparing surgical ligation with medical treatment with cyclooxygenase inhibitors, each used as the initial treatment for closure of PDA.
 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Assessment of methodological quality and extraction of data for included trials was undertaken independently by the authors. RevMan 4.1 was used for analysis of the data.
 MAIN RESULTS Only one study, trial B in the report of Gersony 1983, was found eligible. No additional studies were identified in the literature searches performed in July 2007. The trial compared the effect of surgical ligation of PDA vs. medical treatment with indomethacin, each used as the primary treatment. No trials comparing surgery to other cyclooxygenase inhibitors (ibuprofen, mefenamic acid) were found. Trial B of Gersony 1983 enrolled 154 infants. The study found no statistically significant difference between surgical closure and indomethacin treatment in mortality during hospital stay, chronic lung disease, other bleeding, necrotizing enterocolitis, sepsis, creatinine level, or intraventricular hemorrhage. There was a statistically significant increase in the surgical group in incidence of pneumothorax [RR 2.68 (95% CI 1.45, 4.93); RD 0.25 (95% CI 0.11, 0.38); NNH 4 (95% CI 3, 9)] and retinopathy of prematurity stage III and IV [RR 3.80 (95% CI 1.12, 12.93); RD 0.11 (95% CI 0.02, 0.20), NNH 9 (95% CI 5, 50] compared to the indomethacin group. There was as expected a statistically significant decrease in failure of ductal closure rate in the surgical group as compared to the indomethacin group: [RR 0.04 (95% CI 0.01, 0.27); RD -0.32 (95% CI -0.43, -0.21), NNT 3 (95% CI 2, 4)].    AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS The data regarding net benefit/harm are insufficient to make a conclusion as to whether surgical ligation or medical treatment with indomethacin is preferred as initial treatment for symptomatic PDA in preterm infants. It should be noted that three recent observational studies indicated an increased risk for one or more of the following outcomes associated with PDA ligation; chronic lung disease, retinopathy of prematurity and neurosensory impairment . It is possible that the duration of the "waiting-time" and transport to another facility with surgical capacity to have the PDA ligated could adversely affect outcomes, as could the perioperative care.

title: Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

text: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

title: Aspirin in the chemoprevention of colorectal neoplasia: an overview.

text: Considerable evidence supports the effectiveness of aspirin for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer (CRC) in addition to its well-established benefits in the prevention of vascular disease. Epidemiologic studies have consistently observed an inverse association between aspirin use and risk of CRC. A recent pooled analysis of a long-term posttrial follow-up of nearly 14,000 patients from four randomized, cardiovascular disease prevention trials showed that daily aspirin treatment for about five years was associated with a 34% reduction in 20-year CRC mortality. A separate metaanalysis of nearly 3,000 patients with a history of colorectal adenoma or cancer in four randomized adenoma prevention trials showed that aspirin reduced the occurrence of advanced adenomas by 28% and any adenoma by 17%. Aspirin has also been shown to be beneficial in a clinical trial of patients with Lynch syndrome, a hereditary CRC syndrome; in those treated with aspirin for at least two years, there was a 50% or more reduction in the risk of CRC commencing five years after randomization and after aspirin had been discontinued. A few observational studies have shown an increase in survival among patients with CRC who use aspirin. Taken together, these findings strengthen the case for consideration of long-term aspirin use in CRC prevention. Despite these compelling data, there is a lack of consensus about the balance of risks and benefits associated with long-term aspirin use, particularly in low-risk populations. The optimal dose to use for cancer prevention and the precise mechanism underlying aspirin's anticancer effect require further investigation.

title: Effects of treatment for intestinal helminth infection on growth and cognitive performance in children: systematic review of randomised trials.

text:
OBJECTIVE To summarise the effects of anthelmintic drug treatment on growth and cognitive performance in children.
 DATA SOURCES Electronic databases: Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group controlled trial register, Cochrane controlled trials register, Embase, and Medline. Citations of all identified trials. Contact with the World Health Organization and field researchers.    REVIEW METHODS Systematic review of randomised controlled trials in children aged 1-16 that compared anthelmintic treatment with placebo or no treatment. Assessment of validity and data abstraction conducted independently by two reviewers.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Growth and cognitive performance.
 RESULTS Thirty randomised controlled trials in more than 15 000 children were identified. Effects on mean weight were unremarkable, and heterogeneity was evident in the results. There were some positive effects on mean weight change in the trials reporting this outcome: after a single dose (any anthelmintic) the pooled estimates were 0.24 kg (95% confidence interval 0.15 kg to 0. 32 kg; fixed effects model assumed) and 0.38 kg (0.01 kg to 0.77 kg; random effects model assumed). Results from trials of multiple doses showed mean weight change in up to one year of follow up of 0.10 kg (0.04 kg to 0.17 kg; fixed effects) or 0.15 kg (0.00 to 0.30; random effects). At more than one year of follow up, mean weight change was 0.12 kg (-0.02 kg to 0.26 kg; fixed effects) and 0.43 (-0.61 to 1. 47; random effects). Results from studies of cognitive performance were inconclusive.
 CONCLUSIONS There is some limited evidence that routine treatment of children in areas where helminths are common has effects on weight gain, but this is not consistent between trials. There is insufficient evidence as to whether this intervention improves cognitive performance.

title: Randomized, double-blind study of the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of tafenoquine versus mefloquine for malaria prophylaxis in nonimmune subjects.

text: This study represents the first phase III trial of the safety, tolerability, and effectiveness of tafenoquine for malaria prophylaxis. In a randomized (3:1), double-blinded study, Australian soldiers received weekly malaria prophylaxis with 200 mg tafenoquine (492 subjects) or 250 mg mefloquine (162 subjects) for 6 months on a peacekeeping deployment to East Timor. After returning to Australia, tafenoquine-receiving subjects received a placebo and mefloquine-receiving subjects received 30 mg primaquine daily for 14 days. There were no clinically significant differences between hematological and biochemical parameters of the treatment groups. Treatment-related adverse events for the two groups were similar (tafenoquine, 13.4%; mefloquine, 11.7%). Three subjects on tafenoquine (0.6%) and none on mefloquine discontinued prophylaxis because of possible drug-related adverse events. No diagnoses of malaria occurred for either group during deployment, but 4 cases (0.9%) and 1 case (0.7%) of Plasmodium vivax infection occurred among the tafenoquine and mefloquine groups, respectively, up to 20 weeks after discontinuation of medication. In a subset of subjects recruited for detailed safety assessments, treatment-related mild vortex keratopathy was detected in 93% (69 of 74) of tafenoquine subjects but none of the 21 mefloquine subjects. The vortex keratopathy was not associated with any effect on visual acuity and was fully resolved in all subjects by 1 year. Tafenoquine appears to be safe and well tolerated as malaria prophylaxis. Although the volunteers' precise exposure to malaria could not be proven in this study, tafenoquine appears to be a highly efficacious drug for malaria prophylaxis.

title: Prolonged conservative care versus early surgery in patients with sciatica caused by lumbar disc herniation: two year results of a randomised controlled trial.

text:
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the effects of early lumbar disc surgery compared with prolonged conservative care for patients with sciatica over two years of follow-up.
 DESIGN Randomised controlled trial.
 SETTING Nine Dutch hospitals.
 PARTICIPANTS 283 patients with 6-12 weeks of sciatica.
 INTERVENTIONS Early surgery or an intended six months of continued conservative treatment, with delayed surgery if needed.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Scores from Roland disability questionnaire for sciatica, visual analogue scale for leg pain, and Likert self rating scale of global perceived recovery.
 RESULTS Of the 141 patients assigned to undergo early surgery, 125 (89%) underwent microdiscectomy. Of the 142 patients assigned to conservative treatment, 62 (44%) eventually required surgery, seven doing so in the second year of follow-up. There was no significant overall difference between treatment arms in disability scores during the first two years (P=0.25). Improvement in leg pain was faster for patients randomised to early surgery, with a significant difference between "areas under the curves" over two years (P=0.05). This short term benefit of early surgery was no longer significant by six months and continued to narrow between six months and 24 months. Patient satisfaction decreased slightly between one and two years for both groups. At two years 20% of all patients reported an unsatisfactory outcome.
 CONCLUSIONS Early surgery achieved more rapid relief of sciatica than conservative care, but outcomes were similar by one year and these did not change during the second year.
 TRIAL REGISTRY ISRCT No 26872154.

title: Sugar-sweetened beverages and weight gain in children and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

text:
BACKGROUND The relation between sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and body weight remains controversial.
 OBJECTIVE We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence in children and adults.
 DESIGN We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases through March 2013 for prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the SSB-weight relation. Separate meta-analyses were conducted in children and adults and for cohorts and RCTs by using random- and fixed-effects models.
 RESULTS Thirty-two original articles were included in our meta-analyses: 20 in children (15 cohort studies, n = 25,745; 5 trials, n = 2772) and 12 in adults (7 cohort studies, n = 174,252; 5 trials, n = 292). In cohort studies, one daily serving increment of SSBs was associated with a 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.10) and 0.05 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.07)-unit increase in BMI in children and 0.22 kg (95% CI: 0.09, 0.34 kg) and 0.12 kg (95% CI: 0.10, 0.14 kg) weight gain in adults over 1 y in random- and fixed-effects models, respectively. RCTs in children showed reductions in BMI gain when SSBs were reduced [random and fixed effects: -0.17 (95% CI: -0.39, 0.05) and -0.12 (95% CI: -0.22, -0.2)], whereas RCTs in adults showed increases in body weight when SSBs were added (random and fixed effects: 0.85 kg; 95% CI: 0.50, 1.20 kg). Sensitivity analyses of RCTs in children showed more pronounced benefits in preventing weight gain in SSB substitution trials (compared with school-based educational programs) and among overweight children (compared with normal-weight children).
 CONCLUSION Our systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and RCTs provides evidence that SSB consumption promotes weight gain in children and adults.

title: Treated individuals who progress to action or maintenance for one behavior are more likely to make similar progress on another behavior: coaction results of a pooled data analysis of three trials.

text:
OBJECTIVE This study compared, in treatment and control groups, the phenomena of coaction, which is the probability that taking effective action on one behavior is related to taking effective action on a second behavior.
 METHODS Pooled data from three randomized trials of Transtheoretical Model (TTM) tailored interventions (n=9461), completed in the U.S. in 1999, were analyzed to assess coaction in three behavior pairs (diet and sun protection, diet and smoking, and sun protection and smoking). Odds ratios (ORs) compared the likelihood of taking action on a second behavior compared to taking action on only one behavior.
 RESULTS Across behavior pairs, at 12 and 24 months, the ORs for the treatment group were greater on an absolute basis than for the control group, with two being significant. The combined ORs at 12 and 24 months, respectively, were 1.63 and 1.85 for treatment and 1.20 and 1.10 for control.
 CONCLUSIONS The results of this study with addictive, energy balance and appearance-related behaviors were consistent with results found in three studies applying TTM tailoring to energy balance behaviors. Across studies, there was more coaction within the treatment group. Future research should identify predictors of coaction in more multiple behavior change interventions.

title: Pulmonologist involvement, stage-specific treatment, and survival in adults with non-small cell lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

text:
RATIONALE Up to 80% of patients with lung cancer have comorbid chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Many of them are poor candidates for stage-specific lung cancer treatment due to diminished lung function and poor functional status, and many forego treatment. The negative effect of COPD may be moderated by pulmonologist-guided management.
 OBJECTIVES This study examined the association between pulmonologist management and the probability of receiving the recommended stage-specific treatment modality and overall survival among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with preexisting COPD.
 METHODS Early- and advanced-stage NSCLC cases diagnosed between 2002 and 2005 with a prior COPD diagnosis (3-24 months before NSCLC diagnosis) were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results tumor registry data linked to Medicare claims. Study outcomes included receipt of recommended stage-specific treatment (surgical resection for early-stage NSCLC and chemotherapy for advanced-stage NSCLC [advNSCLC]) and overall survival. Pulmonologist management was considered present if one or more Evaluation and Management visit claims with pulmonologist specialty were observed within 6 months after NSCLC diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate logistic regression tested association between pulmonologist management and treatment received. Cox proportional hazard models examined the independent association between pulmonologist care and mortality. Two-stage residual inclusion instrumental variable (2SRI-IV) analyses tested and adjusted for potential confounding based on unobserved factors or measurement error.
 MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS The cohorts included 5,488 patients with early-stage NSCLC and 6,426 patients with advNSCLC disease with preexisting COPD. Pulmonologist management was recorded for 54.9% of patients with early stage NSCLC and 35.7% of patients with advNSCLC. Of those patients with pulmonologist involvement, 58.5% of patients with early NSCLC received surgical resection, and 43.6% of patients with advNSCLC received chemotherapy. Pulmonologist management post NSCLC diagnosis was associated with increased surgical resection rates (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.45) for early NSCLC and increased chemotherapy rates (odds ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.10) for advNSCLC. Pulmonologist management was also associated with reduced mortality risk for patients with early-stage NSCLC but not AdvNSCLC.
 CONCLUSIONS Pulmonologist management had a positive association with rates of stage-specific treatment in both groups and overall survival in early-stage NSCLC. These results provide preliminary support for the recently published guidelines emphasizing the role of pulmonologists in lung cancer management.


query: Origin gross domestic product(GDP) is negatively related to dengue virus (DENV-1) diffusion in air traffic shipments.

title: Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

text:
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks.
 CONCLUSIONS Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

title: Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Thai Villages

text:
BACKGROUND Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children.
 CONCLUSIONS Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases.

title: Dengue is still an imported disease in China: a case study in Guangzhou.

text: Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV 1-4) infect approximately 390 million people worldwide each year, with most cases in tropical and subtropical regions. Because of repeated introduction of DENV from epidemic regions and suitable weather conditions, many regions have shifted from hypo-endemicity to hyper-endemicity over recent decades. Since the first dengue outbreak in 1978, it is crucial to understand the current situation in China over nearly 40 years. The purpose of the study was to examine whether dengue in China was endemic or not, which is essential for relevant dengue control and prevention strategy implementation in China. The study, combining epidemiological characteristics of dengue from the disease notification system, phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses, showed that all four serotypes had been detected in Guangzhou, China, which was dominated by DENV 1-2. The Maximum Likelihood tree analytic results showed that the virus detected in Guangzhou localized in different clades, except of virus of 2002 and 2003 clustered together. There existed the mutual introductions between Guangzhou and Southeast Asia. Most of the viruses were imported from Southeast Asia and the sources of outbreaks in Guangzhou mainly originated from Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The study indicates that dengue in China still remains as an imported disease, with the possibility of localization.

title: Thresholds for the cost–effectiveness of interventions: alternative approaches

text: Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.

title: Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

text:
BACKGROUND New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly.
 METHODS We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP.
 FINDINGS In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective.
 INTERPRETATION Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets.
 FUNDING The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

title: Variations and Trends in Health Burden of Visual Impairment Due to Cataract: A Global Analysis.

text: Purpose To evaluate the global trends in health burden of people visually impaired from cataract in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and its correlations with national levels of socioeconomic development.    Methods Global, regional, and national DALY numbers, crude rate, and age-standardized rate of cataract vision loss by age and sex were obtained from the database of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The human development index, per capita gross domestic product, and other country-level data were derived from international open databases. Regression analysis was used to assess the correlations between age-standardized DALY rate and socioeconomic variables.    Results The global DALY numbers of cataract vision loss increased by 89.42%, from 2048.18 (95%CI [confidence interval]: 1457.60-2761.80) thousands in 1990 to 3879.74 (95% CI: 2766.07-5232.43) thousands in 2015 (P < 0.001). Females had higher DALY number 315.83 (95%CI: 237.17-394.4) and crude rate 38.29 (95%CI: 35.35-41.23) after adjusting for age and country (all P < 0.001). The age-standardized DALY rate was higher in countries with low human development index (HDI), with 91.03 (95%CI: 73.04-108.75) for low HDI, 81.67 (95%CI: 53.24-108.82) for medium HDI, 55.89 (95%CI: 36.87-69.63) for high HDI, and 17.10 (95%CI: 13.91-26.84) for very high HDI countries (P < 0.01), respectively. The national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 were negatively associated with both HDI (R2 = 0.489, P < 0.001) and per capita gross domestic product (R2 = 0.331, P < 0.001). Stepwise multiple regression showed that HDI was significantly correlated with national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 after adjusting for other confounding factors (P < 0.001).    Conclusions The global health burden of vision loss due to cataract increased between 1990 and 2015 despite considerable efforts from the World Health Organization and VISION 2020 initiatives.

title: Domestication and Divergence of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Beer Yeasts

text: Whereas domestication of livestock, pets, and crops is well documented, it is still unclear to what extent microbes associated with the production of food have also undergone human selection and where the plethora of industrial strains originates from. Here, we present the genomes and phenomes of 157 industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts. Our analyses reveal that today's industrial yeasts can be divided into five sublineages that are genetically and phenotypically separated from wild strains and originate from only a few ancestors through complex patterns of domestication and local divergence. Large-scale phenotyping and genome analysis further show strong industry-specific selection for stress tolerance, sugar utilization, and flavor production, while the sexual cycle and other phenotypes related to survival in nature show decay, particularly in beer yeasts. Together, these results shed light on the origins, evolutionary history, and phenotypic diversity of industrial yeasts and provide a resource for further selection of superior strains. PAPERCLIP.

title: Respiratory and cardiovascular responses to walking down a traffic-polluted road compared with walking in a traffic-free area in participants aged 60 years and older with chronic lung or heart disease and age-matched healthy controls: a randomised, crossover study

text:
BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to pollution can lead to an increase in the rate of decline of lung function, especially in older individuals and in those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas shorter-term exposure at higher pollution levels has been implicated in causing excess deaths from ischaemic heart disease and exacerbations of COPD. We aimed to assess the effects on respiratory and cardiovascular responses of walking down a busy street with high levels of pollution compared with walking in a traffic-free area with lower pollution levels in older adults.
 METHODS In this randomised, crossover study, we recruited men and women aged 60 years and older with angiographically proven stable ischaemic heart disease or stage 2 Global initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) COPD who had been clinically stable for 6 months, and age-matched healthy volunteers. Individuals with ischaemic heart disease or COPD were recruited from existing databases or outpatient respiratory and cardiology clinics at the Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust and age-matched healthy volunteers using advertising and existing databases. All participants had abstained from smoking for at least 12 months and medications were taken as recommended by participants' doctors during the study. Participants were randomly assigned by drawing numbered disks at random from a bag to do a 2 h walk either along a commercial street in London (Oxford Street) or in an urban park (Hyde Park). Baseline measurements of participants were taken before the walk in the hospital laboratory. During each walk session, black carbon, particulate matter (PM) concentrations, ultrafine particles, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations were measured.
 FINDINGS Between October, 2012, and June, 2014, we screened 135 participants, of whom 40 healthy volunteers, 40 individuals with COPD, and 39 with ischaemic heart disease were recruited. Concentrations of black carbon, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and ultrafine particles were higher on Oxford Street than in Hyde Park. Participants with COPD reported more cough (odds ratio [OR] 1·95, 95% CI 0·96-3·95; p<0·1), sputum (3·15, 1·39-7·13; p<0·05), shortness of breath (1·86, 0·97-3·57; p<0·1), and wheeze (4·00, 1·52-10·50; p<0·05) after walking down Oxford Street compared with Hyde Park. In all participants, irrespective of their disease status, walking in Hyde Park led to an increase in lung function (forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] and forced vital capacity [FVC]) and a decrease in pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index up to 26 h after the walk. By contrast, these beneficial responses were attenuated after walking on Oxford Street. In participants with COPD, a reduction in FEV1 and FVC, and an increase in R5-20 were associated with an increase in during-walk exposure to NO2, ultrafine particles and PM2.5, and an increase in PWV and augmentation index with NO2 and ultrafine particles. In healthy volunteers, PWV and augmentation index were associated both with black carbon and ultrafine particles.
 INTERPRETATION Short-term exposure to traffic pollution prevents the beneficial cardiopulmonary effects of walking in people with COPD, ischaemic heart disease, and those free from chronic cardiopulmonary diseases. Medication use might reduce the adverse effects of air pollution in individuals with ischaemic heart disease. Policies should aim to control ambient levels of air pollution along busy streets in view of these negative health effects.
 FUNDING British Heart Foundation.

title: Rapid DNA methylation changes after exposure to traffic particles.

text:
RATIONALE Exposure to particulate air pollution has been related to increased hospitalization and death, particularly from cardiovascular disease. Lower blood DNA methylation content is found in processes related to cardiovascular outcomes, such as oxidative stress, aging, and atherosclerosis.
 OBJECTIVES We evaluated whether particulate pollution modifies DNA methylation in heavily methylated sequences with high representation throughout the human genome.
 METHODS We measured DNA methylation of long interspersed nucleotide element (LINE)-1 and Alu repetitive elements by quantitative polymerase chain reaction-pyrosequencing of 1,097 blood samples from 718 elderly participants in the Boston area Normative Aging Study. We used covariate-adjusted mixed models to account for within-subject correlation in repeated measures. We estimated the effects on DNA methylation of ambient particulate pollutants (black carbon, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm [PM2.5], or sulfate) in multiple time windows (4 h to 7 d) before the examination. We estimated standardized regression coefficients (beta) expressing the fraction of a standard deviation change in DNA methylation associated with a standard deviation increase in exposure.
 MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Repetitive element DNA methylation varied in association with time-related variables, such as day of the week and season. LINE-1 methylation decreased after recent exposure to higher black carbon (beta = -0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.18 to -0.04; P = 0.002) and PM2.5 (beta = -0.13; 95% CI, -0.19 to -0.06; P < 0.001 for the 7-d moving average). In two-pollutant models, only black carbon, a tracer of traffic particles, was significantly associated with LINE-1 methylation (beta = -0.09; 95% CI, -0.17 to -0.01; P = 0.03). No association was found with Alu methylation (P > 0.12).
 CONCLUSIONS We found decreased repeated-element methylation after exposure to traffic particles. Whether decreased methylation mediates exposure-related health effects remains to be determined.

title: Epidemiologic studies on Dengue in Santiago de Cuba, 1997.

text: A small, isolated outbreak of dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) due to dengue virus type 2 (DEN-2) was documented in Santiago de Cuba on the island of Cuba beginning in January 1997. There were 205 DHF/DSS cases, all in persons older than age 15 years. All but three had evidence of a prior dengue infection, with the only known opportunity being the islandwide dengue virus type 1 (DEN-1) epidemic of 1977-1979. Virtually complete clinical and laboratory surveillance of overt disease was achieved. From December 1997 to January 1998, a random, age-stratified serum sample was obtained from 1,151 persons in 40 residential clusters in Santiago. Sera were tested for DEN-1 and DEN-2 neutralizing antibodies. The prevalence of DEN-2 antibodies in children age 15 years and under, born after the 1981 DEN-2 epidemic, was taken as the 1997 DEN-2 infection rate. This was adjusted slightly to accommodate observed cases, resulting in an estimated infection rate of 4.3%. Dengue fever and DHF/DSS attack rates were calculated from estimated total primary and secondary DEN-2 infections. Only 3% of 13,116 primary infections were overt. The DHF/DSS attack rate for adults of all ages was 420 per 10,000 secondary DEN-2 infections.

title: SEROSURVEY FOR FELINE LEUKEMIA VIRUS AND LENTIVIRUSES IN CAPTIVE SMALL NEOTROPIC FELIDS IN SÃO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL

text: Abstract Feline leukemia virus (FeLV), Gammaretrovirus, and feline immunodeficiency virus, a Lentivirus, are members of the family Retroviridae, and may establish persistent infections in the domestic cat (Felis catus). Cytoproliferative and cytosuppressive disorders may result from infection with these viruses. Morbidity and mortality rates are high in domestic cats worldwide. Infection of endangered neotropic small felids with these viruses could be devastating. To investigate the prevalence of FeLV and feline lentiviruses in neotropic small felids kept in captivity in São Paulo state, Brazil, serum samples from 104 animals belonging to the species Leopardus pardalis, Leopardus tigrinus, Leopardus wiedii, Herpailurus yaguarondi, and Oncifelis geoffroyi were tested for FeLV and feline lentiviruses by commercially available immunoassays. All results were negative, suggesting that retrovirus infection is not an important clinical problem in these populations. Because domestic cats in São Paulo city are naturally infected with these pathogens, and feral cats are commonly found in zoologic facilities in Brazil, preventive measures should be taken to avoid transmission of retroviruses to naive populations of wild and captive neotropic felids in Brazil.

title: Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus/human herpesvirus type 8-positive solid lymphomas: a tissue-based variant of primary effusion lymphoma.

text: Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), also termed human herpesvirus type 8, is consistently identified in Kaposi's sarcoma, primary effusion lymphoma (PEL), and multicentric Castleman's disease. Here we report four cases of KSHV-bearing solid lymphomas that occurred in AIDS patients (cases 1 to 3) and in a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seronegative person (case 4). The patients presented extranodal masses in the abdomen (cases 1, 3, and 4) or skin (case 2), and nodal involvement, together with Kaposi's sarcoma (case 3). The gastrointestinal tract was involved in two patients (cases 1 and 3). The patients did not develop a lymphomatous effusion. KSHV was detected in the tumor cells of all cases by immunohistochemistry and by polymerase chain reaction. Epstein-Barr virus was detected in two of the HIV-related cases. All KSHV-positive solid lymphomas exhibited PEL-like cell morphology. To investigate the relationship of these disorders to PEL and to other AIDS-associated diffuse large cell lymphomas, KSHV-positive solid lymphomas were tested for the expression of a set of genes that were previously shown by gene profiling analysis to define PEL tumor cells. The results showed that expression of this set of genes in KSHV-positive lymphomas is similar to that of PEL but distinct from KSHV-negative AIDS-associated diffuse large cell lymphomas. Because pathobiological features of KSHV-positive solid lymphomas closely mimic those of PEL, our results suggest that KSHV-positive solid lymphomas should be considered as a tissue-based variant of classical PEL, irrespective of HIV status.

title: Rank Signaling Links the Development of Invariant γδ T Cell Progenitors and Aire+ Medullary Epithelium

text: The thymic medulla provides a specialized microenvironment for the negative selection of T cells, with the presence of autoimmune regulator (Aire)-expressing medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTECs) during the embryonic-neonatal period being both necessary and sufficient to establish long-lasting tolerance. Here we showed that emergence of the first cohorts of Aire(+) mTECs at this key developmental stage, prior to αβ T cell repertoire selection, was jointly directed by Rankl(+) lymphoid tissue inducer cells and invariant Vγ5(+) dendritic epidermal T cell (DETC) progenitors that are the first thymocytes to express the products of gene rearrangement. In turn, generation of Aire(+) mTECs then fostered Skint-1-dependent, but Aire-independent, DETC progenitor maturation and the emergence of an invariant DETC repertoire. Hence, our data attributed a functional importance to the temporal development of Vγ5(+) γδ T cells during thymus medulla formation for αβ T cell tolerance induction and demonstrated a Rank-mediated reciprocal link between DETC and Aire(+) mTEC maturation.

title: The financial cost of doctors emigrating from sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis

text:
OBJECTIVE To estimate the lost investment of domestically educated doctors migrating from sub-Saharan African countries to Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
 DESIGN Human capital cost analysis using publicly accessible data.
 SETTINGS Sub-Saharan African countries.
 PARTICIPANTS Nine sub-Saharan African countries with an HIV prevalence of 5% or greater or with more than one million people with HIV/AIDS and with at least one medical school (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and data available on the number of doctors practising in destination countries.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The financial cost of educating a doctor (through primary, secondary, and medical school), assuming that migration occurred after graduation, using current country specific interest rates for savings converted to US dollars; cost according to the number of source country doctors currently working in the destination countries; and savings to destination countries of receiving trained doctors.
 RESULTS In the nine source countries the estimated government subsidised cost of a doctor's education ranged from $21,000 (£13,000; €15,000) in Uganda to $58,700 in South Africa. The overall estimated loss of returns from investment for all doctors currently working in the destination countries was $2.17bn (95% confidence interval 2.13bn to 2.21bn), with costs for each country ranging from $2.16m (1.55m to 2.78m) for Malawi to $1.41bn (1.38bn to 1.44bn) for South Africa. The ratio of the estimated compounded lost investment over gross domestic product showed that Zimbabwe and South Africa had the largest losses. The benefit to destination countries of recruiting trained doctors was largest for the United Kingdom ($2.7bn) and United States ($846m).
 CONCLUSIONS Among sub-Saharan African countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, lost investment from the emigration of doctors is considerable. Destination countries should consider investing in measurable training for source countries and strengthening of their health systems.

title: Aire deficiency promotes TRP-1-specific immune rejection of melanoma.

text: The thymic transcription factor autoimmune regulator (Aire) prevents autoimmunity in part by promoting expression of tissue-specific self-antigens, which include many cancer antigens. For example, AIRE-deficient patients are predisposed to vitiligo, an autoimmune disease of melanocytes that is often triggered by efficacious immunotherapies against melanoma. Therefore, we hypothesized that Aire deficiency in mice may elevate immune responses to cancer and provide insights into how such responses might be triggered. In this study, we show that Aire deficiency decreases thymic expression of TRP-1 (TYRP1), which is a self-antigen in melanocytes and a cancer antigen in melanomas. Aire deficiency resulted in defective negative selection of TRP-1-specific T cells without affecting thymic numbers of regulatory T cells. Aire-deficient mice displayed elevated T-cell immune responses that were associated with suppression of melanoma outgrowth. Furthermore, transplantation of Aire-deficient thymic stroma was sufficient to confer more effective immune rejection of melanoma in an otherwise Aire wild-type host. Together, our work showed how Aire deficiency can enhance immune responses against melanoma and how manipulating TRP-1-specific T-cell negative selection may offer a logical strategy to enhance immune rejection of melanoma.

title: Aire regulates negative selection of organ-specific T cells

text: Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy syndrome type 1 is a recessive Mendelian disorder resulting from mutations in a novel gene, AIRE, and is characterized by a spectrum of organ-specific autoimmune diseases. It is not known what tolerance mechanisms are defective as a result of AIRE mutation. By tracing the fate of autoreactive CD4+ T cells with high affinity for a pancreatic antigen in transgenic mice with an Aire mutation, we show here that Aire deficiency causes almost complete failure to delete the organ-specific cells in the thymus. These results indicate that autoimmune polyendocrinopathy syndrome 1 is caused by failure of a specialized mechanism for deleting forbidden T cell clones, establishing a central role for this tolerance mechanism.

title: The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

text:
BACKGROUND Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
 METHODS We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries.
 FINDINGS We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013.
 INTERPRETATION Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher.
 FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

title: Immunophenotypic analysis of AIDS-related diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and clinical implications in patients from AIDS malignancies consortium clinical trials 010 and 034

text:
PURPOSE Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) represents a clinically heterogeneous disease. Models based on immunohistochemistry predict clinical outcome. These include subdivision into germinal center (GC) versus non-GC subtypes; proliferation index (measured by expression of Ki-67), and expression of BCL-2, FOXP1, or B-lymphocyte-induced maturation protein (Blimp-1)/PRDM1. We sought to determine whether immunohistochemical analyses of biopsies from patients with DLBCL having HIV infection are similarly relevant for prognosis.
 PATIENTS AND METHODS We examined 81 DLBCLs from patients with AIDS in AMC010 (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone [CHOP] v CHOP-rituximab) and AMC034 (etoposide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone, and dose-adjusted cyclophosphamide plus rituximab concurrent v sequential) clinical trials and compared the immunophenotype with survival data, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) positivity, and CD4 counts.
 RESULTS The GC and non-GC subtypes of DLBCL did not differ significantly with respect to overall survival or CD4 count at cancer presentation. EBV could be found in both subtypes of DLBCL, although less frequently in the GC subtype, and did not affect survival. Expression of FOXP1, Blimp-1/PRDM1, or BCL-2 was not correlated with the outcome in patients with AIDS-related DLBCL.
 CONCLUSION These data indicate that with current treatment strategies for lymphoma and control of HIV infection, commonly used immunohistochemical markers may not be clinically relevant in HIV-infected patients with DLBCL. The only predictive immunohistochemical marker was found to be Ki-67, where a higher proliferation index was associated with better survival, suggesting a better response to therapy in patients whose tumors had higher proliferation rates.

title: Isolation and partial characterization of an unusual human immunodeficiency retrovirus from two persons of west-central African origin.

text: An unusual human retrovirus was isolated from two patients with persistent generalized lymphadenopathy who originate from West-Central Africa and are currently residing in Belgium. Although the virus shared a number of the same biological and morphological properties as human immunodeficiency retrovirus type 1 (HIV-1) and HIV-2, significant antigenic differences could be demonstrated. Several of the viral proteins also differed in molecular weight from the corresponding HIV-1 and HIV-2 proteins. Partial chemical cleavage of the most highly conserved viral proteins resulted in patterns which differed from those of HIV-1 and HIV-2. Furthermore, nucleic acid hybridization experiments were capable of discriminating between the virus types. Sequence analysis of the viral U3 region revealed a unique enhancer organization not found in other immunodeficiency viruses. The data indicated that the new isolate is more closely related to HIV-1 than to HIV-2 but clearly differs in a number of important respects.

title: Involvement of sympathetic nervous system and brown fat in endotoxin-induced fever in rats.

text: The object of this study was to assess the role of brown adipose tissue (BAT) and the sympathetic nervous system in the rise in heat production associated with endotoxin-induced fever. Oxygen consumption (VO2) was found to be significantly increased (28%) over a 4-h period after two doses of endotoxin (Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide, 0.3 mg/100 g body wt) given 24 h apart. Injection of a mixed beta-adrenoceptor antagonist (propranolol) reduced VO2 by 14% in endotoxin-treated rats, whereas the selective beta 1- (atenolol) or beta 2- (ICI 118551) antagonists suppressed VO2 by 10%. These drugs did not affect VO2 in control animals. BAT thermogenic activity assessed from measurements of in vitro mitochondrial guanosine 5'-diphosphate (GDP) binding was elevated by 54% in interscapular BAT and by 171% in other BAT depots. Surgical denervation of one lobe of the interscapular depot prevented these responses. Endotoxin failed to stimulate GDP binding in rats fed protein-deficient diets. This may have been because BAT thermogenic activity was already elevated in control rats fed these diets or because endotoxin caused a marked suppression of food intake in the protein-deficient animals. The results indicate that sympathetic activation of BAT is involved in the thermogenic responses to endotoxin and that these can be modified by dietary manipulation.

title: Treatment outcome of an unselected cohort of tuberculosis patients in relation to human immunodeficiency virus serostatus in Zomba Hospital, Malawi.

text: There is little information about treatment outcome in patients with smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) or extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) treated under routine programme conditions in subsaharan Africa. A prospective study was carried out to determine treatment outcome in an unselected cohort of TB patients admitted to Zomba General Hospital, Malawi. Eight hundred and twenty-seven adult TB patients (451 men and 376 women) were registered between 1 July and 31 December 1995. Standardized treatment outcomes of treatment completion, death, default, and transfer to another district were assessed in relation to type of TB, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serostatus, age and gender. Two hundred and fifty-four patients (31%) died by the end of treatment, half of the deaths occurring in the first month. Death rates were 19% among 386 patients with smear-positive PTB, 46% among 211 patients with smear-negative PTB, and 37% among 230 patients with EPTB; 77% of the patients were HIV seropositive. Among new patients, HIV-positive patients had higher death rates than HIV-negative patients (hazard ratio [HR] 2.5; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.6-3.8). Smear-negative patients had the highest death rates (HR 3.9; 95% CI 2.7-5.5 compared to smear-positive patients), followed by EPTB patients (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.8-3.7 compared to smear-positive patients). Death rates increased with age but were similar in men and women. Adult patients in Malawi with smear-negative PTB and EPTB have low treatment completion and high death rates, related to high levels of HIV infection. National TB control programmes in areas of high HIV prevalence should no longer ignore treatment outcomes in patients with smear-negative PTB or EPTB.


query: Origin gross domestic product(GDP) is positively related to dengue virus (DENV-1) diffusion in air traffic shipments.

title: Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

text:
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks.
 CONCLUSIONS Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

title: Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Thai Villages

text:
BACKGROUND Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children.
 CONCLUSIONS Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases.

title: Dengue is still an imported disease in China: a case study in Guangzhou.

text: Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV 1-4) infect approximately 390 million people worldwide each year, with most cases in tropical and subtropical regions. Because of repeated introduction of DENV from epidemic regions and suitable weather conditions, many regions have shifted from hypo-endemicity to hyper-endemicity over recent decades. Since the first dengue outbreak in 1978, it is crucial to understand the current situation in China over nearly 40 years. The purpose of the study was to examine whether dengue in China was endemic or not, which is essential for relevant dengue control and prevention strategy implementation in China. The study, combining epidemiological characteristics of dengue from the disease notification system, phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses, showed that all four serotypes had been detected in Guangzhou, China, which was dominated by DENV 1-2. The Maximum Likelihood tree analytic results showed that the virus detected in Guangzhou localized in different clades, except of virus of 2002 and 2003 clustered together. There existed the mutual introductions between Guangzhou and Southeast Asia. Most of the viruses were imported from Southeast Asia and the sources of outbreaks in Guangzhou mainly originated from Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The study indicates that dengue in China still remains as an imported disease, with the possibility of localization.

title: Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

text:
BACKGROUND New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly.
 METHODS We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP.
 FINDINGS In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective.
 INTERPRETATION Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets.
 FUNDING The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

title: Thresholds for the cost–effectiveness of interventions: alternative approaches

text: Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.

title: Relationship between Sloan-Kettering virus expression and mouse follicular development

text: Sloan-Kettering virus gene product (Ski) is an unique nuclear pro-oncoprotein and belongs to the ski/sno proto-oncogene family. Ski plays multiple roles in a variety of cell types, it can induce both oncogenic transformation and terminal muscle differentiation when expressed at high levels. Ski/SnoN are important transcription regulators of the transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) superfamily and function mainly through heterodimers. Since TGF-β superfamily are key regulators of follicle development and it has been previously shown that SnoN is also vital to follicle development, this research was conducted to clarify the relationship between Ski expression and mouse follicular development, in ovaries of neonatal and gonadotropin-induced immature mice by immunohistochemical and real-time PCR techniques. In postnatal mice, positive staining for Ski was highly detected in oocyte nuclei at postnatal day 1. With follicular development, the localization moved gradually from oocyte nuclei to perinuclear space and the total levels decreased. During the estrous cycle, Ski expression was apparent at proestrus and estrus, faint at metestrus, highest at diestrus. After injection of gonadotropin, Ski was found in perinuclear space and weak in oocyte nuclei. Following the initiation of luteinization, the expression of Ski was found in corpus luteum. Real-time PCR results also showed that Ski mRNA expression was opposite to ovulation-related genes during the cumulus expansion, with the development of the follicles, its expression level decreased. Ski is expressed in a specific manner during follicle development, ovulation and luteinization. So Ski might play essential roles in these processes especially during early follicular development.

title: The Global Spread of Hepatitis C Virus 1a and 1b: A Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Analysis

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BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries.
 CONCLUSIONS The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

title: Nrf2 protects human alveolar epithelial cells against injury induced by influenza A virus

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BACKGROUND Influenza A virus (IAV) infection primarily targets respiratory epithelial cells and produces clinical outcomes ranging from mild upper respiratory infection to severe pneumonia. Recent studies have shown the importance of lung antioxidant defense systems against injury by IAV. Nuclear factor-erythroid 2 related factor 2 (Nrf2) activates the majority of antioxidant genes.
 METHODS Alveolar type II (ATII) cells and alveolar macrophages (AM) were isolated from human lungs not suitable for transplantation and donated for medical research. In some studies ATII cells were transdifferentiated to alveolar type I-like (ATI-like) cells. Alveolar epithelial cells were infected with A/PR/8/34 (PR8) virus. We analyzed PR8 virus production, influenza A nucleoprotein levels, ROS generation and expression of antiviral genes. Immunocytofluorescence was used to determine Nrf2 translocation and western blotting to detect Nrf2, HO-1 and caspase 1 and 3 cleavage. We also analyzed ingestion of PR8 virus infected apoptotic ATII cells by AM, cytokine levels by ELISA, glutathione levels, necrosis and apoptosis by TUNEL assay. Moreover, we determined the critical importance of Nrf2 using adenovirus Nrf2 (AdNrf2) or Nrf2 siRNA to overexpress or knockdown Nrf2, respectively.
 RESULTS We found that IAV induced oxidative stress, cytotoxicity and apoptosis in ATI-like and ATII cells. We also found that AM can ingest PR8 virus-induced apoptotic ATII cells (efferocytosis) but not viable cells, whereas ATII cells did not ingest these apoptotic cells. PR8 virus increased ROS production, Nrf2, HO-1, Mx1 and OAS1 expression and Nrf2 translocation to the nucleus. Nrf2 knockdown with siRNA sensitized ATI-like cells and ATII cells to injury induced by IAV and overexpression of Nrf2 with AdNrf2 protected these cells. Furthermore, Nrf2 overexpression followed by infection with PR8 virus decreased virus replication, influenza A nucleoprotein expression, antiviral response and oxidative stress. However, AdNrf2 did not increase IFN-λ1 (IL-29) levels.
 CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate that IAV induces alveolar epithelial injury and that Nrf2 protects these cells from the cytopathic effects of IAV likely by increasing the expression of antioxidant genes. Identifying the pathways involved in protecting cells from injury during influenza infection may be particularly important for developing new therapeutic strategies.