query: Incidence of sepsis has fallen substantially from 2009 to 2014.

title: Incidence and Trends of Sepsis in US Hospitals Using Clinical vs Claims Data, 2009-2014

text: Importance Estimates from claims-based analyses suggest that the incidence of sepsis is increasing and mortality rates from sepsis are decreasing. However, estimates from claims data may lack clinical fidelity and can be affected by changing diagnosis and coding practices over time. Objective To estimate the US national incidence of sepsis and trends using detailed clinical data from the electronic health record (EHR) systems of diverse hospitals. Design, Setting, and Population Retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to 409 academic, community, and federal hospitals from 2009-2014. Exposures Sepsis was identified using clinical indicators of presumed infection and concurrent acute organ dysfunction, adapting Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) criteria for objective and consistent EHR-based surveillance. Main Outcomes and Measures Sepsis incidence, outcomes, and trends from 2009-2014 were calculated using regression models and compared with claims-based estimates using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis or septic shock. Case-finding criteria were validated against Sepsis-3 criteria using medical record reviews. Results A total of 173 690 sepsis cases (mean age, 66.5 [SD, 15.5] y; 77 660 [42.4%] women) were identified using clinical criteria among 2 901 019 adults admitted to study hospitals in 2014 (6.0% incidence). Of these, 26 061 (15.0%) died in the hospital and 10 731 (6.2%) were discharged to hospice. From 2009-2014, sepsis incidence using clinical criteria was stable (+0.6% relative change/y [95% CI, −2.3% to 3.5%], P = .67) whereas incidence per claims increased (+10.3%/y [95% CI, 7.2% to 13.3%], P < .001). In-hospital mortality using clinical criteria declined (−3.3%/y [95% CI, −5.6% to −1.0%], P = .004), but there was no significant change in the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice (−1.3%/y [95% CI, −3.2% to 0.6%], P = .19). In contrast, mortality using claims declined significantly (−7.0%/y [95% CI, −8.8% to −5.2%], P < .001), as did death or discharge to hospice (−4.5%/y [95% CI, −6.1% to −2.8%], P < .001). Clinical criteria were more sensitive in identifying sepsis than claims (69.7% [95% CI, 52.9% to 92.0%] vs 32.3% [95% CI, 24.4% to 43.0%], P < .001), with comparable positive predictive value (70.4% [95% CI, 64.0% to 76.8%] vs 75.2% [95% CI, 69.8% to 80.6%], P = .23). Conclusions and Relevance In clinical data from 409 hospitals, sepsis was present in 6% of adult hospitalizations, and in contrast to claims-based analyses, neither the incidence of sepsis nor the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice changed significantly between 2009-2014. The findings also suggest that EHR-based clinical data provide more objective estimates than claims-based data for sepsis surveillance.

title: Epidemiology of sepsis and septic shock in critical care units: comparison between sepsis-2 and sepsis-3 populations using a national critical care database

text: Background New sepsis and septic shock definitions could change the epidemiology of sepsis because of differences in criteria. We therefore compared the sepsis populations identified by the old and new definitions.    Methods We used a high-quality, national, intensive care unit (ICU) database of 654 918 consecutive admissions to 189 adult ICUs in England, from January 2011 to December 2015. Primary outcome was acute hospital mortality. We compared old (Sepsis-2) and new (Sepsis-3) incidence, outcomes, trends in outcomes, and predictive validity of sepsis and septic shock populations.    Results From among 197 724 Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and 197 142 Sepsis-3 sepsis cases, we identified 153 257 Sepsis-2 septic shock and 39 262 Sepsis-3 septic shock cases. The extrapolated population incidence of Sepsis-3 sepsis and Sepsis-3 septic shock was 101.8 and 19.3 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, in 2015. Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and Sepsis-3 sepsis had similar incidence, similar mortality and showed significant risk-adjusted improvements in mortality over time. Sepsis-3 septic shock had a much higher Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, greater mortality and no risk-adjusted trends in mortality improvement compared with Sepsis-2 septic shock. ICU admissions identified either as Sepsis-3 sepsis or septic shock and as Sepsis-2 severe sepsis or septic shock had significantly greater risk-adjusted odds of death compared with non-sepsis admissions (P<0.001). The predictive validity was greatest for Sepsis-3 septic shock.    Conclusions In an ICU database, compared with Sepsis-2, Sepsis-3 identifies a similar sepsis population with 92% overlap and much smaller septic shock population with improved predictive validity.

title: Self-harm in prisons in England and Wales: an epidemiological study of prevalence, risk factors, clustering, and subsequent suicide

text:
BACKGROUND Self-harm and suicide are common in prisoners, yet robust information on the full extent and characteristics of people at risk of self-harm is scant. Furthermore, understanding how frequently self-harm is followed by suicide, and in which prisoners this progression is most likely to happen, is important. We did a case-control study of all prisoners in England and Wales to ascertain the prevalence of self-harm in this population, associated risk factors, clustering effects, and risk of subsequent suicide after self-harm.
 METHODS Records of self-harm incidents in all prisons in England and Wales were gathered routinely between January, 2004, and December, 2009. We did a case-control comparison of prisoners who self-harmed and those who did not between January, 2006, and December, 2009. We also used a Bayesian approach to look at clustering of people who self-harmed. Prisoners who self-harmed and subsequently died by suicide in prison were compared with other inmates who self-harmed.
 FINDINGS 139,195 self-harm incidents were recorded in 26,510 individual prisoners between 2004 and 2009; 5-6% of male prisoners and 20-24% of female inmates self-harmed every year. Self-harm rates were more than ten times higher in female prisoners than in male inmates. Repetition of self-harm was common, particularly in women and teenage girls, in whom a subgroup of 102 prisoners accounted for 17,307 episodes. In both sexes, self-harm was associated with younger age, white ethnic origin, prison type, and a life sentence or being unsentenced; in female inmates, committing a violent offence against an individual was also a factor. Substantial evidence was noted of clustering in time and location of prisoners who self-harmed (adjusted intra-class correlation 0·15, 95% CI 0·11-0·18). 109 subsequent suicides in prison were reported in individuals who self-harmed; the risk was higher in those who self-harmed than in the general prison population, and more than half the deaths occurred within a month of self-harm. Risk factors for suicide after self-harm in male prisoners were older age and a previous self-harm incident of high or moderate lethality; in female inmates, a history of more than five self-harm incidents within a year was associated with subsequent suicide.
 INTERPRETATION The burden of self-harm in prisoners is substantial, particularly in women. Self-harm in prison is associated with subsequent suicide in this setting. Prevention and treatment of self-harm in prisoners is an essential component of suicide prevention in prisons.
 FUNDING Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, National Offender Management Service, and Department of Health.

title: Current knowledge and future directions of TLR and NOD signaling in sepsis

text: The incidence of sepsis is increasing over time, along with an increased risk of dying from the condition. Sepsis care costs billions annually in the United States. Death from sepsis is understood to be a complex process, driven by a lack of normal immune homeostatic functions and excessive production of proinflammatory cytokines, which leads to multi-organ failure. The Toll-like receptor (TLR) family, one of whose members was initially discovered in Drosophila, performs an important role in the recognition of microbial pathogens. These pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), upon sensing invading microorganisms, activate intracellular signal transduction pathways. NOD signaling is also involved in the recognition of bacteria and acts synergistically with the TLR family in initiating an efficient immune response for the eradication of invading microbial pathogens. TLRs and NOD1/NOD2 respond to different pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Modulation of both TLR and NOD signaling is an area of research that has prompted much excitement and debate as a therapeutic strategy in the management of sepsis. Molecules targeting TLR and NOD signaling pathways exist but regrettably thus far none have proven efficacy from clinical trials.

title: Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

text:
BACKGROUND Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations.
 CONCLUSION Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

title: Bariatric Surgery in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Study of Weight Loss and Clinical Outcomes in Routine Clinical Care.

text:
BACKGROUND Bariatric surgery is becoming a more widespread treatment for obesity. Comprehensive evidence of the long-term effects of contemporary surgery on a broad range of clinical outcomes in large populations treated in routine clinical practice is lacking. The objective of this study was to measure the association between bariatric surgery, weight, body mass index, and obesity-related co-morbidities.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS This was an observational retrospective cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All 3,882 patients registered in the database and with bariatric surgery on or before 31 December 2014 were included and matched by propensity score to 3,882 obese patients without surgery. The main outcome measures were change in weight and body mass index over 4 y; incident diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, fractures, obstructive sleep apnoea, and cancer; mortality; and resolution of hypertension and T2DM. Weight measures were available for 3,847 patients between 1 and 4 mo, 2,884 patients between 5 and 12 mo, and 2,258 patients between 13 and 48 mo post-procedure. Bariatric surgery patients exhibited rapid weight loss for the first four postoperative months, at a rate of 4.98 kg/mo (95% CI 4.88-5.08). Slower weight loss was sustained to the end of 4 y. Gastric bypass (6.56 kg/mo) and sleeve gastrectomy (6.29 kg/mo) were associated with greater initial weight reduction than gastric banding (2.77 kg/mo). Protective hazard ratios (HRs) were detected for bariatric surgery for incident T2DM, 0.68 (95% CI 0.55-0.83); hypertension, 0.35 (95% CI 0.27-0.45); angina, 0.59 (95% CI 0.40-0.87);MI, 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.74); and obstructive sleep apnoea, 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.87). Strong associations were found between bariatric surgery and the resolution of T2DM, with a HR of 9.29 (95% CI 6.84-12.62), and between bariatric surgery and the resolution of hypertension, with a HR of 5.64 (95% CI 2.65-11.99). No association was detected between bariatric surgery and fractures, cancer, or stroke. Effect estimates for mortality found no protective association with bariatric surgery overall, with a HR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.66-1.43). The data used were recorded for the management of patients in primary care and may be subject to inaccuracy, which would tend to lead to underestimates of true relative effect sizes.
 CONCLUSIONS Bariatric surgery as delivered in the UK healthcare system is associated with dramatic weight loss, sustained at least 4 y after surgery. This weight loss is accompanied by substantial improvements in pre-existing T2DM and hypertension, as well as a reduced risk of incident T2DM, hypertension, angina, MI, and obstructive sleep apnoea. Widening the availability of bariatric surgery could lead to substantial health benefits for many people who are morbidly obese.

title: Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2016

text: Objective: To provide an update to “Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012. ” Design: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. Methods: The panel consisted of five sections: hemodynamics, infection, adjunctive therapies, metabolic, and ventilation. Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low, and to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or best practice statement when applicable. Results: The Surviving Sepsis Guideline panel provided 93 statements on early management and resuscitation of patients with sepsis or septic shock. Overall, 32 were strong recommendations, 39 were weak recommendations, and 18 were best-practice statements. No recommendation was provided for four questions. Conclusions: Substantial agreement exists among a large cohort of international experts regarding many strong recommendations for the best care of patients with sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for these critically ill patients with high mortality.

title: The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3).

text:
IMPORTANCE Definitions of sepsis and septic shock were last revised in 2001. Considerable advances have since been made into the pathobiology (changes in organ function, morphology, cell biology, biochemistry, immunology, and circulation), management, and epidemiology of sepsis, suggesting the need for reexamination.
 OBJECTIVE To evaluate and, as needed, update definitions for sepsis and septic shock.    PROCESS A task force (n = 19) with expertise in sepsis pathobiology, clinical trials, and epidemiology was convened by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Definitions and clinical criteria were generated through meetings, Delphi processes, analysis of electronic health record databases, and voting, followed by circulation to international professional societies, requesting peer review and endorsement (by 31 societies listed in the Acknowledgment).    KEY FINDINGS FROM EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS Limitations of previous definitions included an excessive focus on inflammation, the misleading model that sepsis follows a continuum through severe sepsis to shock, and inadequate specificity and sensitivity of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. Multiple definitions and terminologies are currently in use for sepsis, septic shock, and organ dysfunction, leading to discrepancies in reported incidence and observed mortality. The task force concluded the term severe sepsis was redundant.    RECOMMENDATIONS Sepsis should be defined as life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. For clinical operationalization, organ dysfunction can be represented by an increase in the Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 points or more, which is associated with an in-hospital mortality greater than 10%. Septic shock should be defined as a subset of sepsis in which particularly profound circulatory, cellular, and metabolic abnormalities are associated with a greater risk of mortality than with sepsis alone. Patients with septic shock can be clinically identified by a vasopressor requirement to maintain a mean arterial pressure of 65 mm Hg or greater and serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L (>18 mg/dL) in the absence of hypovolemia. This combination is associated with hospital mortality rates greater than 40%. In out-of-hospital, emergency department, or general hospital ward settings, adult patients with suspected infection can be rapidly identified as being more likely to have poor outcomes typical of sepsis if they have at least 2 of the following clinical criteria that together constitute a new bedside clinical score termed quickSOFA (qSOFA): respiratory rate of 22/min or greater, altered mentation, or systolic blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or less.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These updated definitions and clinical criteria should replace previous definitions, offer greater consistency for epidemiologic studies and clinical trials, and facilitate earlier recognition and more timely management of patients with sepsis or at risk of developing sepsis.

title: The Incidence and Repetition of Hospital-Treated Deliberate Self Harm: Findings from the World's First National Registry

text:
BACKGROUND Suicide is a significant public health issue with almost one million people dying by suicide each year worldwide. Deliberate self harm (DSH) is the single most important risk factor for suicide yet few countries have reliable data on DSH. We developed a national DSH registry in the Republic of Ireland to establish the incidence of hospital-treated DSH at national level and the spectrum and pattern of presentations with DSH and repetition.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Between 2003 and 2009, the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self Harm collected data on DSH presentations to all 40 hospital emergency departments in the country. Data were collected by trained data registration officers using standard methods of case ascertainment and definition. The Registry recorded 75,119 DSH presentations involving 48,206 individuals. The total incidence rate fell from 209 (95% CI: 205-213) per 100,000 in 2003 to 184 (95% CI: 180-189) per 100,000 in 2006 and increased again to 209 (95% CI: 204-213) per 100,000 in 2009. The most notable annual changes were successive 10% increases in the male rate in 2008 and 2009. There was significant variation by age with peak rates in women in the 15-19 year age group (620 (95% CI: 605-636) per 100,000), and in men in the 20-24 age group (427 (95% CI: 416-439) per 100,000). Repetition rates varied significantly by age, method of self harm and number of previous episodes.
 CONCLUSIONS Population-based data on hospital-treated DSH represent an important index of the burden of mental illness and suicide risk in the community. The increased DSH rate in Irish men in 2008 and 2009 coincided with the advent of the economic recession in Ireland. The findings underline the need for developing effective interventions to reduce DSH repetition rates as a key priority for health systems.

title: Cancer treatment and survivorship statistics, 2014.

text: The number of cancer survivors continues to increase due to the aging and growth of the population and improvements in early detection and treatment. In order for the public health community to better serve these survivors, the American Cancer Society and the National Cancer Institute collaborated to estimate the number of current and future cancer survivors using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program registries. In addition, current treatment patterns for the most common cancer types are described based on information in the National Cancer Data Base and the SEER and SEER-Medicare linked databases; treatment-related side effects are also briefly described. Nearly 14.5 million Americans with a history of cancer were alive on January 1, 2014; by January 1, 2024, that number will increase to nearly 19 million. The 3 most common prevalent cancers among males are prostate cancer (43%), colorectal cancer (9%), and melanoma (8%), and those among females are cancers of the breast (41%), uterine corpus (8%), and colon and rectum (8%). The age distribution of survivors varies substantially by cancer type. For example, the majority of prostate cancer survivors (62%) are aged 70 years or older, whereas less than one-third (32%) of melanoma survivors are in this older age group. It is important for clinicians to understand the unique medical and psychosocial needs of cancer survivors and to proactively assess and manage these issues. There are a growing number of resources that can assist patients, caregivers, and health care providers in navigating the various phases of cancer survivorship.

title: Elevated red blood cell distribution width contributes to poor prognosis in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer

text: Several studies have reported that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW) was associated with the poor prognosis of different kinds of cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of RDW in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed a database of 625 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer at our institution from January 2009 to December 2014. The cutoff value of RDW was calculated by receiver-operating characteristic curve. The results demonstrated that patients in high RDW-cv group had a lower overall survival (OS) (P = .018) and disease-free survival (P = .004). We also observed that patients in high RDW-sd group were associated with significantly lower OS (P = .033), whereas the disease-free survival (DFS) was not significantly different (P = .179).In multivariate analysis, we found elevated RDW-cv was associated poor DFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56, P = .010) and RDW-sd can predict a worse OS (HR = 1.70, P = .009).We confirmed that elevated RDW can be an independently prognostic factor in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer. So more intervention or surveillance might be paid to the patients with nonmetastatic rectal cancer and elevated RDW values in the future.

title: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Quick Sequential Organ Function Assessment, and Organ Dysfunction: Insights From a Prospective Database of ED Patients With Infection

text:
BACKGROUND: A proposed revision of sepsis definitions has abandoned the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), defined organ dysfunction as an increase in total Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) score of ≥ 2, and conceived “qSOFA” (quick SOFA) as a bedside indicator of organ dysfunction. We aimed to (1) determine the prognostic impact of SIRS, (2) compare the diagnostic accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA for organ dysfunction, and (3) compare standard (Sepsis‐2) and revised (Sepsis‐3) definitions for organ dysfunction in ED patients with infection.
 METHODS: Consecutive ED patients admitted with presumed infection were prospectively enrolled over 3 years. Sufficient observational data were collected to calculate SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA, comorbidity, and mortality.
 RESULTS: We enrolled 8,871 patients, with SIRS present in 4,176 (47.1%). SIRS was associated with increased risk of organ dysfunction (relative risk [RR] 3.5) and mortality in patients without organ dysfunction (OR 3.2). SIRS and qSOFA showed similar discrimination for organ dysfunction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.72 vs 0.73). qSOFA was specific but poorly sensitive for organ dysfunction (96.1% and 29.7%, respectively). Mortality for patients with organ dysfunction was similar for Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3 (12.5% and 11.4%, respectively), although 29% of patients with Sepsis‐3 organ dysfunction did not meet Sepsis‐2 criteria. Increasing numbers of Sepsis‐2 organ system dysfunctions were associated with greater mortality.
 CONCLUSIONS: SIRS was associated with organ dysfunction and mortality, and abandoning the concept appears premature. A qSOFA score ≥ 2 showed high specificity, but poor sensitivity may limit utility as a bedside screening method. Although mortality for organ dysfunction was comparable between Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3, more prognostic and clinical information is conveyed using Sepsis‐2 regarding number and type of organ dysfunctions. The SOFA score may require recalibration.

title: HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

text:
BACKGROUND Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.
 CONCLUSIONS Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.

title: Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities

text:
BACKGROUND Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).
 CONCLUSIONS Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.

title: Effect of screening on cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales: analysis of trends with an age period cohort model.

text: The number of women dying from cervical cancer in 1997 was 7% lower than in 1996 and has fallen by over 25% since 1992.1 Such rapid change must be at least partly due to cervical screening, although strong cohort effects have caused large fluctuations in cervical mortality in the past.2 We modelled mortality data, taking into account the effects of age and year of birth and looking for trends in time within four age groups to estimate the beneficial effects of cervical screening.   We obtained mortality data, in 5 year age bands, from death registrations in England and Wales and calculated rates using mid-year population estimates. Mortality since 1993 was adjusted upwards by 4% because of changes in classification of cause of death.3  We modelled the data assuming that the age specific mortality is the product of a smoothly varying age effect, birth cohort effect, and age dependent …

title: Bisphosphonates in oncology: rising stars or fallen heroes.

text: The introduction of bisphosphonates in oncology has dramatically changed the management of patients with metastatic bone disease. In this manuscript, we thoroughly scrutinize the available body of clinical trials supporting the use of bisphosphonates in this setting and review new and ongoing research. Additionally, we summarize the data showing the benefits of bisphosphonate use in the prevention of treatment-induced bone loss and the intriguing emerging evidence on the antitumor potential of some of these agents when used in the adjuvant setting. Finally, we address the need for a careful consideration of potential benefits of bisphosphonate therapy and the risk for osteonecrosis of the jaw, a recently recognized late-toxicity of their use.

title: Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

text: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

title: Variants in the Toll-interacting protein gene are associated with susceptibility to sepsis in the Chinese Han population

text:
INTRODUCTION Deregulated or excessive host immune responses contribute to the pathogenesis of sepsis. Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling pathways and their negative regulators play a pivotal role in the modulation of host immune responses and the development of sepsis. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of variants in the TLR signaling pathway genes and their negative regulator genes with susceptibility to sepsis in the Chinese Han population.
 METHODS Patients with severe sepsis (n = 378) and healthy control subjects (n = 390) were enrolled. Five genes, namely TLR2, TLR4, TLR9, MyD88 and TOLLIP, were investigated for their association with sepsis susceptibility by a tag single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) strategy. Twelve tag SNPs were selected based on the data of Chinese Han in Beijing from the HapMap project and genotyped by direct sequencing. The mRNA expression levels of TOLLIP were determined using real-time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assays, and concentrations of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).
 RESULTS Our results showed that the minor C-allele of rs5743867 in TOLLIP was significantly associated with the decreased risk of sepsis (Padj = 0.00062, odds ratio (OR)adj = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 0.86) after adjustment for covariates in multiple logistic regression analysis. A 3-SNP haplotype block harboring the associated SNP rs5743867 also displayed strong association with omnibus test P value of 0.00049. Haplotype GTC showed a protective role against sepsis (Padj = 0.0012), while haplotype GCT showed an increased risk for sepsis (Padj = 0.00092). After exposure to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), TOLLIP mRNA expression levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from homozygotes for the rs5743867C allele were significantly higher than in heterozygotes and homozygotes for the rs5743867T allele (P = 0.013 and P = 0.01, respectively). Moreover, the concentrations of TNF-α and IL-6 in culture supernatants were significantly lower in the subjects of rs5743867CC genotype than in CT and TT genotype subjects (P = 0.016 and P = 0.003 for TNF-α; P = 0.01 and P = 0.002 for IL-6, respectively).
 CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicated that the variants in TOLLIP were significantly associated with sepsis susceptibility in the Chinese Han population.

title: Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis

text:
BACKGROUND The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010.
 METHODS We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies.
 FINDINGS We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals.
 INTERPRETATION Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities.
 FUNDING WHO.

title: Declining tuberculosis notification trend associated with strengthened TB and expanded HIV care in Swaziland.

text: This retrospective observational review documents the efforts of the Swaziland National Tuberculosis (TB) Control Programme between 2004 and 2014. The objective is to describe the disparity between actual declines in case notification and increases in estimated incidence. The review of policies and practices shows the most influential factors associated with the decrease in TB case notification to be an increase in access to antiretroviral therapy for co-infected TB patients, the general success of TB and human immunodeficiency virus service integration in the country and improvements in implementation of all components of directly observed treatment, active case finding, and rapid diagnosis using new technologies.


query: Including pharmacists in rounding teams does not alter the incidence of adverse drug events (ADEs).

title: Pharmacist participation on physician rounds and adverse drug events in the intensive care unit.

text:
CONTEXT Pharmacist review of medication orders in the intensive care unit (ICU) has been shown to prevent errors, and pharmacist consultation has reduced drug costs. However, whether pharmacist participation in the ICU at the time of drug prescribing reduces adverse events has not been studied.
 OBJECTIVE To measure the effect of pharmacist participation on medical rounds in the ICU on the rate of preventable adverse drug events (ADEs) caused by ordering errors.
 DESIGN Before-after comparison between phase 1 (baseline) and phase 2 (after intervention implemented) and phase 2 comparison with a control unit that did not receive the intervention.
 SETTING A medical ICU (study unit) and a coronary care unit (control unit) in a large urban teaching hospital.
 PATIENTS Seventy-five patients randomly selected from each of 3 groups: all admissions to the study unit from February 1, 1993, through July 31, 1993 (baseline) and all admissions to the study unit (postintervention) and control unit from October 1, 1994, through July 7, 1995. In addition, 50 patients were selected at random from the control unit during the baseline period.
 INTERVENTION A senior pharmacist made rounds with the ICU team and remained in the ICU for consultation in the morning, and was available on call throughout the day.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Preventable ADEs due to ordering (prescribing) errors and the number, type, and acceptance of interventions made by the pharmacist. Preventable ADEs were identified by review of medical records of the randomly selected patients during both preintervention and postintervention phases. Pharmacists recorded all recommendations, which were then analyzed by type and acceptance.
 RESULTS The rate of preventable ordering ADEs decreased by 66% from 10.4 per 1000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 7-14) before the intervention to 3.5 (95% CI, 1-5; P<.001) after the intervention. In the control unit, the rate was essentially unchanged during the same time periods: 10.9 (95% CI, 6-16) and 12.4 (95% CI, 8-17) per 1000 patient-days. The pharmacist made 366 recommendations related to drug ordering, of which 362 (99%) were accepted by physicians.
 CONCLUSIONS The presence of a pharmacist on rounds as a full member of the patient care team in a medical ICU was associated with a substantially lower rate of ADEs caused by prescribing errors. Nearly all the changes were readily accepted by physicians.

title: Incidence of adverse drug events and potential adverse drug events. Implications for prevention. ADE Prevention Study Group.

text:
OBJECTIVES To assess incidence and preventability of adverse drug events (ADEs) and potential ADEs. To analyze preventable events to develop prevention strategies.
 DESIGN Prospective cohort study.
 PARTICIPANTS All 4031 adult admissions to a stratified random sample of 11 medical and surgical units in two tertiary care hospitals over a 6-month period. Units included two medical and three surgical intensive care units and four medical and two surgical general care units.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Adverse drug events and potential ADEs.
 METHODS Incidents were detected by stimulated self-report by nurses and pharmacists and by daily review of all charts by nurse investigators. Incidents were subsequently classified by two independent reviewers as to whether they represented ADEs or potential ADEs and as to severity and preventability.
 RESULTS Over 6 months, 247 ADEs and 194 potential ADEs were identified. Extrapolated event rates were 6.5 ADEs and 5.5 potential ADEs per 100 nonobstetrical admissions, for mean numbers per hospital per year of approximately 1900 ADEs and 1600 potential ADEs. Of all ADEs, 1% were fatal (none preventable), 12% life-threatening, 30% serious, and 57% significant. Twenty-eight percent were judged preventable. Of the life-threatening and serious ADEs, 42% were preventable, compared with 18% of significant ADEs. Errors resulting in preventable ADEs occurred most often at the stages of ordering (56%) and administration (34%); transcription (6%) and dispensing errors (4%) were less common. Errors were much more likely to be intercepted if the error occurred earlier in the process: 48% at the ordering stage vs 0% at the administration stage.
 CONCLUSION Adverse drug events were common and often preventable; serious ADEs were more likely to be preventable. Most resulted from errors at the ordering stage, but many also occurred at the administration stage. Prevention strategies should target both stages of the drug delivery process.

title: Adverse Events Associated With the Treatment of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

text: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a growing public health problem. Due to long duration of therapy and concurrent use of multiple second-line drugs, adverse drug events (ADEs) are regarded as the most important clinical consideration in patients undergoing anti-MDR-TB treatment. To evaluate the frequency and type of treatment-related ADEs owing to MDR-TB therapy. The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, and EMBASE were searched from inception through October 1, 2012, with additional manual search of International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. Studies with available ADEs were selected if MDR-TB patients were treated with regimen including second-line drugs. Pooled estimations of incidence for each specific type of ADEs were calculated with 95% confidence intervals using random-effects model. Of the 5346 patients included, 2602 (57.3%) experienced at least 1 kind of ADE. The 3 most common side effects were gastrointestinal disorders (32.1%), ototoxicity (14.6%), and psychiatric disorders (13.2%). Subgroup analyses based on each characteristic (study population, previous tuberculosis treated, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, and length of treatment) did not show any significant difference between groups. Additionally, among 1519 patients who developed ADEs with available data of impact on MDR-TB therapy, 70.4% required change of MDR-TB treatment. Adverse events were common among MDR-TB cases, occurring in more than half of the cases, with over two-thirds requiring change of anti-MDR-TB treatment. MDR-TB patients should be monitored closely and managed aggressively for side effects during therapy, especially for ototoxicity and psychiatric disorders.

title: New Roles for Pharmacists in Community Mental Health Care: A Narrative Review

text: Medicines are a major treatment modality for many mental illnesses, and with the growing burden of mental disorders worldwide pharmacists are ideally positioned to play a greater role in supporting people with a mental illness. This narrative review aims to describe the evidence for pharmacist-delivered services in mental health care and address the barriers and facilitators to increasing the uptake of pharmacist services as part of the broader mental health care team. This narrative review is divided into three main sections: (1) the role of the pharmacist in mental health care in multidisciplinary teams and in supporting early detection of mental illness; (2) the pharmacists' role in supporting quality use of medicines in medication review, strategies to improve medication adherence and antipsychotic polypharmacy, and shared decision making; and (3) barriers and facilitators to the implementation of mental health pharmacy services with a focus on organizational culture and mental health stigma. In the first section, the review presents new roles for pharmacists within multidisciplinary teams, such as in case conferencing or collaborative drug therapy management; and new roles that would benefit from increased pharmacist involvement, such as the early detection of mental health conditions, development of care plans and follow up of people with mental health problems. The second section describes the impact of medication review services and other pharmacist-led interventions designed to reduce inappropriate use of psychotropic medicines and improve medication adherence. Other new potential roles discussed include the management of antipsychotic polypharmacy and involvement in patient-centered care. Finally, barriers related to pharmacists' attitudes, stigma and skills in the care of patients with mental health problems and barriers affecting pharmacist-physician collaboration are described, along with strategies to reduce mental health stigma.

title: Adverse drug events: database construction and in silico prediction.

text: Adverse drug events (ADEs) are the harms associated with uses of given medications at normal dosages, which are crucial for a drug to be approved in clinical use or continue to stay on the market. Many ADEs are not identified in trials until the drug is approved for clinical use, which results in adverse morbidity and mortality. To date, millions of ADEs have been reported around the world. Methods to avoid or reduce ADEs are an important issue for drug discovery and development. Here, we reported a comprehensive database of adverse drug events (namely MetaADEDB), which included more than 520,000 drug-ADE associations among 3059 unique compounds (including 1330 drugs) and 13,200 ADE items by data integration and text mining. All compounds and ADEs were annotated with the most commonly used concepts defined in Medical Subject Headings (MeSH). Meanwhile, a computational method, namely the phenotypic network inference model (PNIM), was developed for prediction of potential ADEs based on the database. The area under the receive operating characteristic curve (AUC) is more than 0.9 by 10-fold cross validation, while the AUC value was 0.912 for an external validation set extracted from the US-FDA Adverse Events Reporting System, which indicated that the prediction capability of the method was reliable. MetaADEDB is accessible free of charge at http://www.lmmd.org/online_services/metaadedb/. The database and the method provide us a useful tool to search for known side effects or predict potential side effects for a given drug or compound.

title: Validity and reliability of observational methods for studying medication administration errors.

text: The validity and reliability of observational methods for studying medication administration errors (MAEs) were studied. Between January and June 1998, two pharmacists observed consecutive drug administration rounds by nurses on two wards in a U.K. hospital and recorded all MAEs identified. The observers intervened in cases of potentially harmful errors. MAE records were audited to determine the percentage of omitted doses for which a corresponding reason was documented for the observation periods and for nonobservation periods. Error rates for each drug administration round were analyzed according to whether they were for the nurse's first, second, third (and so on) observed round. Error rates were calculated before and after the first intervention with nurses for whom an intervention was made. Observer reliability was calculated by comparing the rates of errors identified by the two observers. There was no difference between the observation and nonobservation periods in the percentage of omitted doses for which a reason was documented, and there was no change in the error rate with repeated observations. There was no difference in error rates before and after the first intervention for each nurse. There was also no difference in error detection between the two observers and no change with increasing duration of observation. Observation of nurses during drug administration at a U.K. hospital did not significantly affect the MAE rate; nor did tactful interventions by the observers. Observer reliability was high. Concerns about the validity and reliability of observational methods for identifying MAEs may be unfounded.

title: Antithymocyte globulin treatment for patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes: 12-month results of a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

text:
BACKGROUND Type 1 diabetes results from T-cell-mediated destruction of β cells. Findings from preclinical studies and pilot clinical trials suggest that antithymocyte globulin (ATG) might be effective for reducing this autoimmune response. We assessed the safety and efficacy of rabbit ATG in preserving islet function in participants with recent-onset type 1 diabetes, and report here our 12-month results.
 METHODS For this phase 2, randomised, placebo-controlled, clinical trial, we enrolled patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes, aged 12-35 years, and with a peak C-peptide of 0.4 nM or greater on mixed meal tolerance test from 11 sites in the USA. We used a computer generated randomisation sequence to randomly assign patients (2:1, with permuted-blocks of size three or six and stratified by study site) to receive either 6.5 mg/kg ATG or placebo over a course of four days. All participants were masked and initially managed by an unmasked drug management team, which managed all aspects of the study until month 3. Thereafter, to maintain masking for diabetes management throughout the remainder of the study, participants received diabetes management from an independent, masked study physician and nurse educator. The primary endpoint was the baseline-adjusted change in 2-h area under the curve C-peptide response to mixed meal tolerance test from baseline to 12 months. Analyses were by intention to treat. This is a planned interim analysis of an on-going trial that will run for 24 months of follow-up. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00515099.
 FINDINGS Between Sept 10, 2007, and June 1, 2011, we screened 154 individuals, randomly allocating 38 to ATG and 20 to placebo. We recorded no between-group difference in the primary endpoint: participants in the ATG group had a mean change in C-peptide area under the curve of -0.195 pmol/mL (95% CI -0.292 to -0.098) and those in the placebo group had a mean change of -0.239 pmol/mL (-0.361 to -0.118) in the placebo group (p=0.591). All except one participant in the ATG group had both cytokine release syndrome and serum sickness, which was associated with a transient rise in interleukin-6 and acute-phase proteins. Acute T cell depletion occurred in the ATG group, with slow reconstitution over 12 months. However, effector memory T cells were not depleted, and the ratio of regulatory to effector memory T cells declined in the first 6 months and stabilised thereafter. ATG-treated patients had 159 grade 3-4 adverse events, many associated with T-cell depletion, compared with 13 in the placebo group, but we detected no between-group difference in incidence of infectious diseases.
 INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that a brief course of ATG does not result in preservation of β-cell function 12 months later in patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes. Generalised T-cell depletion in the absence of specific depletion of effector memory T cells and preservation of regulatory T cells seems to be an ineffective treatment for type 1 diabetes.

title: Postmarket Safety Events Among Novel Therapeutics Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration Between 2001 and 2010

text: Importance Postmarket safety events of novel pharmaceuticals and biologics occur when new safety risks are identified after initial regulatory approval of these therapeutics. These safety events can change how novel therapeutics are used in clinical practice and inform patient and clinician decision making. Objectives To characterize the frequency of postmarket safety events among novel therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and to examine whether any novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval were associated with increased risk. Design and Setting Cohort study of all novel therapeutics approved by the FDA between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2010, followed up through February 28, 2017. Exposures Novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval, including drug class, therapeutic area, priority review, accelerated approval, orphan status, near–regulatory deadline approval, and regulatory review time. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite of (1) withdrawals due to safety concerns, (2) FDA issuance of incremental boxed warnings added in the postmarket period, and (3) FDA issuance of safety communications. Results From 2001 through 2010, the FDA approved 222 novel therapeutics (183 pharmaceuticals and 39 biologics). There were 123 new postmarket safety events (3 withdrawals, 61 boxed warnings, and 59 safety communications) during a median follow-up period of 11.7 years (interquartile range [IQR], 8.7-13.8 years), affecting 71 (32.0%) of the novel therapeutics. The median time from approval to first postmarket safety event was 4.2 years (IQR, 2.5-6.0 years), and the proportion of novel therapeutics affected by a postmarket safety event at 10 years was 30.8% (95% CI, 25.1%-37.5%). In multivariable analysis, postmarket safety events were statistically significantly more frequent among biologics (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.06-3.52; P = .03), therapeutics indicated for the treatment of psychiatric disease (IRR = 3.78; 95% CI, 1.77-8.06; P < .001), those receiving accelerated approval (IRR = 2.20; 95% CI, 1.15-4.21; P = .02), and those with near–regulatory deadline approval (IRR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.19-3.05; P = .008); events were statistically significantly less frequent among those with regulatory review times less than 200 days (IRR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.87; P = .02). Conclusions and Relevance Among 222 novel therapeutics approved by the FDA from 2001 through 2010, 32% were affected by a postmarket safety event. Biologics, psychiatric therapeutics, and accelerated and near–regulatory deadline approval were statistically significantly associated with higher rates of events, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of the safety of novel therapeutics throughout their life cycle.

title: Integration of antiretroviral therapy with tuberculosis treatment.

text:
BACKGROUND We previously reported that integrating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with tuberculosis treatment reduces mortality. However, the timing for the initiation of ART during tuberculosis treatment remains unresolved.
 METHODS We conducted a three-group, open-label, randomized, controlled trial in South Africa involving 642 ambulatory patients, all with tuberculosis (confirmed by a positive sputum smear for acid-fast bacilli), human immunodeficiency virus infection, and a CD4+ T-cell count of less than 500 per cubic millimeter. Findings in the earlier-ART group (ART initiated within 4 weeks after the start of tuberculosis treatment, 214 patients) and later-ART group (ART initiated during the first 4 weeks of the continuation phase of tuberculosis treatment, 215 patients) are presented here.
 RESULTS At baseline, the median CD4+ T-cell count was 150 per cubic millimeter, and the median viral load was 161,000 copies per milliliter, with no significant differences between the two groups. The incidence rate of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death was 6.9 cases per 100 person-years in the earlier-ART group (18 cases) as compared with 7.8 per 100 person-years in the later-ART group (19 cases) (incidence-rate ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44 to 1.79; P=0.73). However, among patients with CD4+ T-cell counts of less than 50 per cubic millimeter, the incidence rates of AIDS or death were 8.5 and 26.3 cases per 100 person-years, respectively (incidence-rate ratio, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.07 to 1.13; P=0.06). The incidence rates of the immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) were 20.1 and 7.7 cases per 100 person-years, respectively (incidence-rate ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.48 to 4.82; P<0.001). Adverse events requiring a switching of antiretroviral drugs occurred in 10 patients in the earlier-ART group and 1 patient in the later-ART group (P=0.006).
 CONCLUSIONS Early initiation of ART in patients with CD4+ T-cell counts of less than 50 per cubic millimeter increased AIDS-free survival. Deferral of the initiation of ART to the first 4 weeks of the continuation phase of tuberculosis therapy in those with higher CD4+ T-cell counts reduced the risks of IRIS and other adverse events related to ART without increasing the risk of AIDS or death. (Funded by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; SAPIT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00398996.).

title: Pharmacological interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis.

text:
BACKGROUND Smoking is the leading preventable cause of illness and premature death worldwide. Some medications have been proven to help people to quit, with three licensed for this purpose in Europe and the USA: nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, and varenicline. Cytisine (a treatment pharmacologically similar to varenicline) is also licensed for use in Russia and some of the former socialist economy countries. Other therapies, including nortriptyline, have also been tested for effectiveness.
 OBJECTIVES How do NRT, bupropion and varenicline compare with placebo and with each other in achieving long-term abstinence (six months or longer)? How do the remaining treatments compare with placebo in achieving long-term abstinence? How do the risks of adverse and serious adverse events (SAEs) compare between the treatments, and are there instances where the harms may outweigh the benefits?
 METHODS The overview is restricted to Cochrane reviews, all of which include randomised trials. Participants are usually adult smokers, but we exclude reviews of smoking cessation for pregnant women and in particular disease groups or specific settings. We cover nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), antidepressants (bupropion and nortriptyline), nicotine receptor partial agonists (varenicline and cytisine), anxiolytics, selective type 1 cannabinoid receptor antagonists (rimonabant), clonidine, lobeline, dianicline, mecamylamine, Nicobrevin, opioid antagonists, nicotine vaccines, and silver acetate. Our outcome for benefit is continuous or prolonged abstinence at least six months from the start of treatment. Our outcome for harms is the incidence of serious adverse events associated with each of the treatments. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) in The Cochrane Library, for any reviews with 'smoking' in the title, abstract or keyword fields. The last search was conducted in November 2012. We assessed methodological quality using a revised version of the AMSTAR scale. For NRT, bupropion and varenicline we conducted network meta-analyses, comparing each with the others and with placebo for benefit, and varenicline and bupropion for risks of serious adverse events.
 MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 treatment-specific reviews. The analyses covered 267 studies, involving 101,804 participants. Both NRT and bupropion were superior to placebo (odds ratios (OR) 1.84; 95% credible interval (CredI) 1.71 to 1.99, and 1.82; 95% CredI 1.60 to 2.06 respectively). Varenicline increased the odds of quitting compared with placebo (OR 2.88; 95% CredI 2.40 to 3.47). Head-to-head comparisons between bupropion and NRT showed equal efficacy (OR 0.99; 95% CredI 0.86 to 1.13). Varenicline was superior to single forms of NRT (OR 1.57; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.91), and to bupropion (OR 1.59; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.96). Varenicline was more effective than nicotine patch (OR 1.51; 95% CredI 1.22 to 1.87), than nicotine gum (OR 1.72; 95% CredI 1.38 to 2.13), and than 'other' NRT (inhaler, spray, tablets, lozenges; OR 1.42; 95% CredI 1.12 to 1.79), but was not more effective than combination NRT (OR 1.06; 95% CredI 0.75 to 1.48). Combination NRT also outperformed single formulations. The four categories of NRT performed similarly against each other, apart from 'other' NRT, which was marginally more effective than NRT gum (OR 1.21; 95% CredI 1.01 to 1.46). Cytisine (a nicotine receptor partial agonist) returned positive findings (risk ratio (RR) 3.98; 95% CI 2.01 to 7.87), without significant adverse events or SAEs. Across the 82 included and excluded bupropion trials, our estimate of six seizures in the bupropion arms versus none in the placebo arms was lower than the expected rate (1:1000), at about 1:1500. SAE meta-analysis of the bupropion studies demonstrated no excess of neuropsychiatric (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.31 to 2.50) or cardiovascular events (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.59). SAE meta-analysis of 14 varenicline trials found no difference between the varenicline and placebo arms (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.55), and subgroup analyses detected no significant excess of neuropsychiatric events (RR 0.53; 95% CI 0.17 to 1.67), or of cardiac events (RR 1.26; 95% CI 0.62 to 2.56). Nortriptyline increased the chances of quitting (RR 2.03; 95% CI 1.48 to 2.78). Neither nortriptyline nor bupropion were shown to enhance the effect of NRT compared with NRT alone. Clonidine increased the chances of quitting (RR 1.63; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.18), but this was offset by a dose-dependent rise in adverse events. Mecamylamine in combination with NRT may increase the chances of quitting, but the current evidence is inconclusive. Other treatments failed to demonstrate a benefit compared with placebo. Nicotine vaccines are not yet licensed for use as an aid to smoking cessation or relapse prevention. Nicobrevin's UK license is now revoked, and the manufacturers of rimonabant, taranabant and dianicline are no longer supporting the development or testing of these treatments.    AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS NRT, bupropion, varenicline and cytisine have been shown to improve the chances of quitting. Combination NRT and varenicline are equally effective as quitting aids. Nortriptyline also improves the chances of quitting. On current evidence, none of the treatments appear to have an incidence of adverse events that would mitigate their use. Further research is warranted into the safety of varenicline and into cytisine's potential as an effective and affordable treatment, but not into the efficacy and safety of NRT.

title: Topical application of chlorhexidine to neonatal umbilical cords for prevention of omphalitis and neonatal mortality in a rural district of Pakistan: a community-based, cluster-randomised trial.

text:
BACKGROUND Umbilical cord infection (omphalitis) is a risk factor for neonatal sepsis and mortality in low-resource settings where home deliveries are common. We aimed to assess the effect of umbilical-cord cleansing with 4% chlorhexidine (CHX) solution, with or without handwashing with antiseptic soap, on the incidence of omphalitis and neonatal mortality.
 METHODS We did a two-by-two factorial, cluster-randomised trial in Dadu, a rural area of Sindh province, Pakistan. Clusters were defined as the population covered by a functional traditional birth attendant (TBA), and were randomly allocated to one of four groups (groups A to D) with a computer-generated random number sequence. Implementation and data collection teams were masked to allocation. Liveborn infants delivered by participating TBAs who received birth kits were eligible for enrolment in the study. One intervention comprised birth kits containing 4% CHX solution for application to the cord at birth by TBAs and once daily by family members for up to 14 days along with soap and educational messages promoting handwashing. One intervention was CHX solution only and another was handwashing only. Standard dry cord care was promoted in the control group. The primary outcomes were incidence of neonatal omphalitis and neonatal mortality. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00682006.
 FINDINGS 187 clusters were randomly allocated to one of the four study groups. Of 9741 newborn babies delivered by participating TBAs, factorial analysis indicated a reduction in risk of omphalitis with CHX application (risk ratio [RR]=0·58, 95% CI 0·41-0·82; p=0·002) but no evidence of an effect of handwashing (RR=0·83, 0·61-1·13; p=0·24). We recorded strong evidence of a reduction in neonatal mortality in neonates who received CHX cleansing (RR=0·62, 95 % CI 0·45-0·85; p=0·003) but no evidence of an effect of handwashing promotion on neonatal mortality (RR=1·08, 0·79-1·48; p=0·62). We recorded no serious adverse events.
 INTERPRETATION Application of 4% CHX to the umbilical cord was effective in reducing the risk of omphalitis and neonatal mortality in rural Pakistan. Provision of CHX in birth kits might be a useful strategy for the prevention of neonatal mortality in high-mortality settings.
 FUNDING The United States Agency for International Development.

title: Hypoglycemia: incidence and clinical predictors in a large population-based sample of children and adolescents with IDDM.

text:
OBJECTIVE To determine the frequency of moderate and severe hypoglycemia and to identify clinical predictors associated with its occurrence in a large population-based sample of children and adolescents with IDDM.    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 657 patients (age: 12.1 +/- 4.4 years, mean +/- SD) were included in the study, yielding 1,449 patient-years of data. A prospective assessment of severe hypoglycemia (an event resulting in a seizure or coma) and moderate hypoglycemia (an event requiring assistance of another, excluding severe episodes) was made over a 3-year period. Patients and caregivers detailed episodes of significant hypoglycemia (moderate and severe events) and these were recorded at each 3-month clinic visit along with HbA1c. Data were analyzed using generalized estimating equation models fitted with the exchange correlation structure.
 RESULTS The overall incidence of severe events was 4.8/100 patient-years and of moderate events was 13.1/100 patient-years. Over 3 years, severe events occurred in 8.5% of children and moderate events occurred in 26.9%. Significant hypoglycemia was rare in the first 12 months after diagnosis. Rates of hypoglycemia were increased in children < 6 years of age versus > 6 years of age (40.9 vs. 16.6/100 patient-years, age < or = 6 years vs. age > 6 years, P < 0.001). Rates of hypoglycemia doubled when HbA1c fell below 8%, and children with HbA1c < 7% had a threefold increase in both moderate and severe hypoglycemia (e.g., severe episodes 14.9 vs. 4.1/100 patient-years, HbA1c < or = 7% vs. HbA1c > 7%, P < 0.001). Most severe events were seizures, and 75% of them occurred at night. The majority of events were related to missed meals or increased activity. However, in 38% no predisposing factor was evident.
 CONCLUSIONS Newly diagnosed children appear to be protected from severe hypoglycemia. Rates increase with lower glycated hemoglobin, especially when mean HbA1c is < 8.0%. Younger children, who may be more susceptible to the adverse effects of neuroglycopenia, are at a particular risk of significant hypoglycemia.

title: A brief analysis of clinical pharmacy interventions undertaken in an Australian teaching hospital.

text: Selected clinical pharmacy interventions undertaken during a 30-day data capture period were analysed, seeking to gain a greater understanding of the nature of the drug-related problems involved. Pharmacists were asked to record only interventions that were of potentially major significance. A total of 67 interventions were submitted for analysis. In 28 cases (41.7% of the initial total) the intervention reports were excluded from further analysis after initial review. For the remaining 39 interventions, 20 patients (51%) were under the care of a medical unit, and cardiovascular/antithrombotic agents accounted for 17 reports (43.5%). The majority of interventions were implemented at the time of inpatient medication order review by the clinical pharmacist (n=25, 64%). The most common category of drug-related problem addressed in the interventions related to the prescription of inappropriately high doses of the correct drug for the patient (n=17, 43.6%). Deficiencies in technical knowledge accounted for less than 25% of all cases.

title: Molecularly targeted therapy based on tumour molecular profiling versus conventional therapy for advanced cancer (SHIVA): a multicentre, open-label, proof-of-concept, randomised, controlled phase 2 trial.

text:
BACKGROUND Molecularly targeted agents have been reported to have anti-tumour activity for patients whose tumours harbour the matching molecular alteration. These results have led to increased off-label use of molecularly targeted agents on the basis of identified molecular alterations. We assessed the efficacy of several molecularly targeted agents marketed in France, which were chosen on the basis of tumour molecular profiling but used outside their indications, in patients with advanced cancer for whom standard-of-care therapy had failed.
 METHODS The open-label, randomised, controlled phase 2 SHIVA trial was done at eight French academic centres. We included adult patients with any kind of metastatic solid tumour refractory to standard of care, provided they had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, disease that was accessible for a biopsy or resection of a metastatic site, and at least one measurable lesion. The molecular profile of each patient's tumour was established with a mandatory biopsy of a metastatic tumour and large-scale genomic testing. We only included patients for whom a molecular alteration was identified within one of three molecular pathways (hormone receptor, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, RAF/MEK), which could be matched to one of ten regimens including 11 available molecularly targeted agents (erlotinib, lapatinib plus trastuzumab, sorafenib, imatinib, dasatinib, vemurafenib, everolimus, abiraterone, letrozole, tamoxifen). We randomly assigned these patients (1:1) to receive a matched molecularly targeted agent (experimental group) or treatment at physician's choice (control group) by central block randomisation (blocks of size six). Randomisation was done centrally with a web-based response system and was stratified according to the Royal Marsden Hospital prognostic score (0 or 1 vs 2 or 3) and the altered molecular pathway. Clinicians and patients were not masked to treatment allocation. Treatments in both groups were given in accordance with the approved product information and standard practice protocols at each institution and were continued until evidence of disease progression. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population, which was not assessed by independent central review. We assessed safety in any patients who received at least one dose of their assigned treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01771458.
 FINDINGS Between Oct 4, 2012, and July 11, 2014, we screened 741 patients with any tumour type. 293 (40%) patients had at least one molecular alteration matching one of the 10 available regimens. At the time of data cutoff, Jan 20, 2015, 195 (26%) patients had been randomly assigned, with 99 in the experimental group and 96 in the control group. All patients in the experimental group started treatment, as did 92 in the control group. Two patients in the control group received a molecularly targeted agent: both were included in their assigned group for efficacy analyses, the patient who received an agent that was allowed in the experimental group was included in the experimental group for the purposes of safety analyses, while the other patient, who received a molecularly targeted agent and chemotherapy, was kept in the control group for safety analyses. Median follow-up was 11·3 months (IQR 5·8-11·6) in the experimental group and 11·3 months (8·1-11·6) in the control group at the time of the primary analysis of progression-free survival. Median progression-free survival was 2·3 months (95% CI 1·7-3·8) in the experimental group versus 2·0 months (1·8-2·1) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·88, 95% CI 0·65-1·19, p=0·41). In the safety population, 43 (43%) of 100 patients treated with a molecularly targeted agent and 32 (35%) of 91 patients treated with cytotoxic chemotherapy had grade 3-4 adverse events (p=0·30).
 INTERPRETATION The use of molecularly targeted agents outside their indications does not improve progression-free survival compared with treatment at physician's choice in heavily pretreated patients with cancer. Off-label use of molecularly targeted agents should be discouraged, but enrolment in clinical trials should be encouraged to assess predictive biomarkers of efficacy.

title: Age-Associated Sperm DNA Methylation Alterations: Possible Implications in Offspring Disease Susceptibility

text: Recent evidence demonstrates a role for paternal aging on offspring disease susceptibility. It is well established that various neuropsychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, autism, etc.), trinucleotide expansion associated diseases (myotonic dystrophy, Huntington's, etc.) and even some forms of cancer have increased incidence in the offspring of older fathers. Despite strong epidemiological evidence that these alterations are more common in offspring sired by older fathers, in most cases the mechanisms that drive these processes are unclear. However, it is commonly believed that epigenetics, and specifically DNA methylation alterations, likely play a role. In this study we have investigated the impact of aging on DNA methylation in mature human sperm. Using a methylation array approach we evaluated changes to sperm DNA methylation patterns in 17 fertile donors by comparing the sperm methylome of 2 samples collected from each individual 9-19 years apart. With this design we have identified 139 regions that are significantly and consistently hypomethylated with age and 8 regions that are significantly hypermethylated with age. A representative subset of these alterations have been confirmed in an independent cohort. A total of 117 genes are associated with these regions of methylation alterations (promoter or gene body). Intriguingly, a portion of the age-related changes in sperm DNA methylation are located at genes previously associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. While our data does not establish a causative relationship, it does raise the possibility that the age-associated methylation of the candidate genes that we observe in sperm might contribute to the increased incidence of neuropsychiatric and other disorders in the offspring of older males. However, further study is required to determine whether, and to what extent, a causative relationship exists.

title: Alzheimer's disease: the two-hit hypothesis.

text: There are many lines of evidence showing that oxidative stress and aberrant mitogenic changes have important roles in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, although both oxidative stress and cell cycle-related abnormalities are early events, occurring before any cytopathology, the relation between these two events, and their role in pathophysiology was, until recently, unclear. However, on the basis of studies of mitogenic and oxidative stress signalling pathways in AD, we proposed a "two-hit hypothesis" which states that although either oxidative stress or abnormalities in mitotic signalling can independently serve as initiators, both processes are necessary to propagate disease pathogenesis. In this paper, we summarise evidence for oxidative stress and abnormal mitotic alterations in AD and explain the two-hit hypothesis by describing how both mechanisms are necessary and invariant features of disease.

title: Nortriptyline for smoking cessation: a review.

text: This article reviews the efficacy of nortriptyline for smoking cessation based on a meta-analysis of the Cochrane Library. Six placebo-controlled trials have shown nortriptyline (75-100 mg) doubles quit rates (OR = 2.1). Between 4% and 12% of smokers dropped out because of adverse events, but no serious adverse events occurred. The efficacy of nortriptyline did not appear to be related to its antidepressant actions. Nortriptyline is an efficacious aid to smoking cessation with a magnitude of effect similar to that for bupropion and nicotine replacement therapies. Whether nortriptyline produces serious side effects at these doses in healthy, nondepressed smokers remains unclear because it has been tested in only 500 smokers. The finding that nortriptyline and bupropion are effective for smoking cessation but that selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitors are not suggests that dopaminergic or adrenergic, but not serotonergic, activity is important for cessation efficacy. Until further studies can verify a low incidence of significant adverse events, nortriptyline should be a second-line treatment for smoking cessation.

title: Aggregation of vascular risk factors and risk of incident Alzheimer disease.

text:
BACKGROUND The prevalence of Alzheimer disease (AD) is increasing in the elderly, and vascular risk factors may increase its risk.
 OBJECTIVE To explore the association of the aggregation of vascular risk factors with AD.
 METHODS The authors followed 1,138 individuals without dementia at baseline (mean age 76.2) for a mean of 5.5 years. The presence of vascular risk factors was related to incident possible and probable AD.
 RESULTS Four risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and current smoking) were associated with a higher risk of AD (p < 0.10) when analyzed individually. The risk of AD increased with the number of risk factors (diabetes + hypertension + heart disease + current smoking). The adjusted hazards ratio of probable AD for the presence of three or more risk factors was 3.4 (95% CI: 1.8, 6.3; p for trend < 0.0001) compared with no risk factors. Diabetes and current smoking were the strongest risk factors in isolation or in clusters, but hypertension and heart disease were also related to a higher risk of AD when clustered with diabetes, smoking, or each other.
 CONCLUSIONS The risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with the number of vascular risk factors. Diabetes and current smoking were the strongest risk factors, but clusters including hypertension and heart disease also increased the risk of AD. These associations are unlikely to be explained by misclassification of the outcome, given strong associations when only probable AD is considered.

title: Continuous glucose monitoring in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes (CONCEPTT): a multicentre international randomised controlled trial

text:
BACKGROUND Pregnant women with type 1 diabetes are a high-risk population who are recommended to strive for optimal glucose control, but neonatal outcomes attributed to maternal hyperglycaemia remain suboptimal. Our aim was to examine the effectiveness of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) on maternal glucose control and obstetric and neonatal health outcomes.
 METHODS In this multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, we recruited women aged 18-40 years with type 1 diabetes for a minimum of 12 months who were receiving intensive insulin therapy. Participants were pregnant (≤13 weeks and 6 days' gestation) or planning pregnancy from 31 hospitals in Canada, England, Scotland, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and the USA. We ran two trials in parallel for pregnant participants and for participants planning pregnancy. In both trials, participants were randomly assigned to either CGM in addition to capillary glucose monitoring or capillary glucose monitoring alone. Randomisation was stratified by insulin delivery (pump or injections) and baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). The primary outcome was change in HbA1c from randomisation to 34 weeks' gestation in pregnant women and to 24 weeks or conception in women planning pregnancy, and was assessed in all randomised participants with baseline assessments. Secondary outcomes included obstetric and neonatal health outcomes, assessed with all available data without imputation. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01788527.
 FINDINGS Between March 25, 2013, and March 22, 2016, we randomly assigned 325 women (215 pregnant, 110 planning pregnancy) to capillary glucose monitoring with CGM (108 pregnant and 53 planning pregnancy) or without (107 pregnant and 57 planning pregnancy). We found a small difference in HbA1c in pregnant women using CGM (mean difference -0·19%; 95% CI -0·34 to -0·03; p=0·0207). Pregnant CGM users spent more time in target (68% vs 61%; p=0·0034) and less time hyperglycaemic (27% vs 32%; p=0·0279) than did pregnant control participants, with comparable severe hypoglycaemia episodes (18 CGM and 21 control) and time spent hypoglycaemic (3% vs 4%; p=0·10). Neonatal health outcomes were significantly improved, with lower incidence of large for gestational age (odds ratio 0·51, 95% CI 0·28 to 0·90; p=0·0210), fewer neonatal intensive care admissions lasting more than 24 h (0·48; 0·26 to 0·86; p=0·0157), fewer incidences of neonatal hypoglycaemia (0·45; 0·22 to 0·89; p=0·0250), and 1-day shorter length of hospital stay (p=0·0091). We found no apparent benefit of CGM in women planning pregnancy. Adverse events occurred in 51 (48%) of CGM participants and 43 (40%) of control participants in the pregnancy trial, and in 12 (27%) of CGM participants and 21 (37%) of control participants in the planning pregnancy trial. Serious adverse events occurred in 13 (6%) participants in the pregnancy trial (eight [7%] CGM, five [5%] control) and in three (3%) participants in the planning pregnancy trial (two [4%] CGM and one [2%] control). The most common adverse events were skin reactions occurring in 49 (48%) of 103 CGM participants and eight (8%) of 104 control participants during pregnancy and in 23 (44%) of 52 CGM participants and five (9%) of 57 control participants in the planning pregnancy trial. The most common serious adverse events were gastrointestinal (nausea and vomiting in four participants during pregnancy and three participants planning pregnancy).
 INTERPRETATION Use of CGM during pregnancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is associated with improved neonatal outcomes, which are likely to be attributed to reduced exposure to maternal hyperglycaemia. CGM should be offered to all pregnant women with type 1 diabetes using intensive insulin therapy. This study is the first to indicate potential for improvements in non-glycaemic health outcomes from CGM use.
 FUNDING Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, Canadian Clinical Trials Network, and National Institute for Health Research.

title: A literature review of the safety of medical body area network devices in magnetic resonance imaging

text: Electro-magnetic fields and wireless technology are part of modern life. The use of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) machines for clarification of internal human structures and function in healthcare is increasing. The rapid development of wireless devices, their miniaturization and their application as clinical tools creates an expanding intersection zone. Although safety standards for devices in MRI machines have been previously published, it is not clear that newer wireless technologies, including devices used in Medical Body Area Networks (MBAN) have been rigorously tested or disclosed. We undertook a review of the clinical scientific literature and the United States Food and Drug Administration adverse events database to discover whether this is a significant issue. There are currently no published studies specifically addressing the safety of wireless devices potentially used in MBAN in MRI machines. We suggest the addition of a research track to clarify the safety of MBAN devices in MRI machines. Informed design of current and future MBAN components, devices and systems can avoid potential patient adverse events due to the un-intended consequences of the concurrent use of these technologies in MRI machines.