query: In young and middle-aged adults, current or remote uses of ADHD medications increase the risk of serious cardiovascular events.

title: ADHD medications and risk of serious cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults.

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CONTEXT More than 1.5 million US adults use stimulants and other medications labeled for treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). These agents can increase heart rate and blood pressure, raising concerns about their cardiovascular safety.
 OBJECTIVE To examine whether current use of medications prescribed primarily to treat ADHD is associated with increased risk of serious cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective, population-based cohort study using electronic health care records from 4 study sites (OptumInsight Epidemiology, Tennessee Medicaid, Kaiser Permanente California, and the HMO Research Network), starting in 1986 at 1 site and ending in 2005 at all sites, with additional covariate assessment using 2007 survey data. Participants were adults aged 25 through 64 years with dispensed prescriptions for methylphenidate, amphetamine, or atomoxetine at baseline. Each medication user (n = 150,359) was matched to 2 nonusers on study site, birth year, sex, and calendar year (443,198 total users and nonusers).
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Serious cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (MI), sudden cardiac death (SCD), or stroke, with comparison between current or new users and remote users to account for potential healthy-user bias.
 RESULTS During 806,182 person-years of follow-up (median, 1.3 years per person), 1357 cases of MI, 296 cases of SCD, and 575 cases of stroke occurred. There were 107,322 person-years of current use (median, 0.33 years), with a crude incidence per 1000 person-years of 1.34 (95% CI, 1.14-1.57) for MI, 0.30 (95% CI, 0.20-0.42) for SCD, and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.43-0.72) for stroke. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of serious cardiovascular events for current use vs nonuse of ADHD medications was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.96). Among new users of ADHD medications, the adjusted RR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.63-0.94). The adjusted RR for current use vs remote use was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86-1.24); for new use vs remote use, the adjusted RR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.28); the upper limit of 1.28 corresponds to an additional 0.19 events per 1000 person-years at ages 25-44 years and 0.77 events per 1000 person-years at ages 45-64 years.
 CONCLUSIONS Among young and middle-aged adults, current or new use of ADHD medications, compared with nonuse or remote use, was not associated with an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events. Apparent protective associations likely represent healthy-user bias.

title: Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

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BACKGROUND More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown.
 METHODS We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years.
 RESULTS The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001).
 CONCLUSIONS Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

title: Aging, habitual exercise, and dynamic arterial compliance.

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BACKGROUND A reduction in compliance of the large-sized cardiothoracic (central) arteries is an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease with advancing age.
 METHODS AND RESULTS We determined the role of habitual exercise on the age-related decrease in central arterial compliance by using both cross-sectional and interventional approaches. First, we studied 151 healthy men aged 18 to 77 years: 54 were sedentary, 45 were recreationally active, and 53 were endurance exercise-trained. Central arterial compliance (simultaneous B-mode ultrasound and arterial applanation tonometry on the common carotid artery) was lower (P:<0.05) in middle-aged and older men than in young men in all 3 groups. There were no significant differences between sedentary and recreationally active men at any age. However, arterial compliance in the endurance-trained middle-aged and older men was 20% to 35% higher than in the 2 less active groups (P:<0.01). As such, age-related differences in central arterial compliance were smaller in the endurance-trained men than in the sedentary and recreationally active men. Second, we studied 20 middle-aged and older (53+/-2 years) sedentary healthy men before and after a 3-month aerobic exercise intervention (primarily walking). Regular exercise increased central arterial compliance (P:<0.01) to levels similar to those of the middle-aged and older endurance-trained men. These effects were independent of changes in body mass, adiposity, arterial blood pressure, or maximal oxygen consumption.
 CONCLUSIONS Regular aerobic-endurance exercise attenuates age-related reductions in central arterial compliance and restores levels in previously sedentary healthy middle-aged and older men. This may be one mechanism by which habitual exercise lowers the risk of cardiovascular disease in this population.

title: Pharmacological interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis.

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BACKGROUND Smoking is the leading preventable cause of illness and premature death worldwide. Some medications have been proven to help people to quit, with three licensed for this purpose in Europe and the USA: nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, and varenicline. Cytisine (a treatment pharmacologically similar to varenicline) is also licensed for use in Russia and some of the former socialist economy countries. Other therapies, including nortriptyline, have also been tested for effectiveness.
 OBJECTIVES How do NRT, bupropion and varenicline compare with placebo and with each other in achieving long-term abstinence (six months or longer)? How do the remaining treatments compare with placebo in achieving long-term abstinence? How do the risks of adverse and serious adverse events (SAEs) compare between the treatments, and are there instances where the harms may outweigh the benefits?
 METHODS The overview is restricted to Cochrane reviews, all of which include randomised trials. Participants are usually adult smokers, but we exclude reviews of smoking cessation for pregnant women and in particular disease groups or specific settings. We cover nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), antidepressants (bupropion and nortriptyline), nicotine receptor partial agonists (varenicline and cytisine), anxiolytics, selective type 1 cannabinoid receptor antagonists (rimonabant), clonidine, lobeline, dianicline, mecamylamine, Nicobrevin, opioid antagonists, nicotine vaccines, and silver acetate. Our outcome for benefit is continuous or prolonged abstinence at least six months from the start of treatment. Our outcome for harms is the incidence of serious adverse events associated with each of the treatments. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) in The Cochrane Library, for any reviews with 'smoking' in the title, abstract or keyword fields. The last search was conducted in November 2012. We assessed methodological quality using a revised version of the AMSTAR scale. For NRT, bupropion and varenicline we conducted network meta-analyses, comparing each with the others and with placebo for benefit, and varenicline and bupropion for risks of serious adverse events.
 MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 treatment-specific reviews. The analyses covered 267 studies, involving 101,804 participants. Both NRT and bupropion were superior to placebo (odds ratios (OR) 1.84; 95% credible interval (CredI) 1.71 to 1.99, and 1.82; 95% CredI 1.60 to 2.06 respectively). Varenicline increased the odds of quitting compared with placebo (OR 2.88; 95% CredI 2.40 to 3.47). Head-to-head comparisons between bupropion and NRT showed equal efficacy (OR 0.99; 95% CredI 0.86 to 1.13). Varenicline was superior to single forms of NRT (OR 1.57; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.91), and to bupropion (OR 1.59; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.96). Varenicline was more effective than nicotine patch (OR 1.51; 95% CredI 1.22 to 1.87), than nicotine gum (OR 1.72; 95% CredI 1.38 to 2.13), and than 'other' NRT (inhaler, spray, tablets, lozenges; OR 1.42; 95% CredI 1.12 to 1.79), but was not more effective than combination NRT (OR 1.06; 95% CredI 0.75 to 1.48). Combination NRT also outperformed single formulations. The four categories of NRT performed similarly against each other, apart from 'other' NRT, which was marginally more effective than NRT gum (OR 1.21; 95% CredI 1.01 to 1.46). Cytisine (a nicotine receptor partial agonist) returned positive findings (risk ratio (RR) 3.98; 95% CI 2.01 to 7.87), without significant adverse events or SAEs. Across the 82 included and excluded bupropion trials, our estimate of six seizures in the bupropion arms versus none in the placebo arms was lower than the expected rate (1:1000), at about 1:1500. SAE meta-analysis of the bupropion studies demonstrated no excess of neuropsychiatric (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.31 to 2.50) or cardiovascular events (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.59). SAE meta-analysis of 14 varenicline trials found no difference between the varenicline and placebo arms (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.55), and subgroup analyses detected no significant excess of neuropsychiatric events (RR 0.53; 95% CI 0.17 to 1.67), or of cardiac events (RR 1.26; 95% CI 0.62 to 2.56). Nortriptyline increased the chances of quitting (RR 2.03; 95% CI 1.48 to 2.78). Neither nortriptyline nor bupropion were shown to enhance the effect of NRT compared with NRT alone. Clonidine increased the chances of quitting (RR 1.63; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.18), but this was offset by a dose-dependent rise in adverse events. Mecamylamine in combination with NRT may increase the chances of quitting, but the current evidence is inconclusive. Other treatments failed to demonstrate a benefit compared with placebo. Nicotine vaccines are not yet licensed for use as an aid to smoking cessation or relapse prevention. Nicobrevin's UK license is now revoked, and the manufacturers of rimonabant, taranabant and dianicline are no longer supporting the development or testing of these treatments.    AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS NRT, bupropion, varenicline and cytisine have been shown to improve the chances of quitting. Combination NRT and varenicline are equally effective as quitting aids. Nortriptyline also improves the chances of quitting. On current evidence, none of the treatments appear to have an incidence of adverse events that would mitigate their use. Further research is warranted into the safety of varenicline and into cytisine's potential as an effective and affordable treatment, but not into the efficacy and safety of NRT.

title: Cost-effectiveness of 10-Year Risk Thresholds for Initiation of Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

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IMPORTANCE The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins.
 OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources.
 MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.
 RESULTS In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (≥7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (≥4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (≥3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.

title: Is emotional dysregulation part of the psychopathology of ADHD in adults?

text: Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder is a common condition in adulthood. The disorder is characterized by symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. Alongside these symptoms, it is discussed whether symptoms of emotional dysregulation could add additional and better description of the psychopathology of ADHD. Neither the current ICD-10 and DSM-IV nor the upcoming DSM-5 includes symptoms of emotional dysregulation as a core aspect of ADHD. Several authors (e.g., Wender 1995) describe adult ADHD in a more differentiated way and propose concepts of the disorder that consider the subjective experiences of the adult patient by introducing the symptomatology of emotional symptoms. Empirical studies attest this dimension sufficient reliability and validity. Symptoms of emotional dysregulation are definable and seem to be distinct factors of the psychopathology of adult ADHD. Pharmacological and psychotherapeutic interventions help to alleviate this type of symptoms. This review attests a decisive role to the emotional symptoms in the ADHD symptomatology, which should be taken in serious consideration by future research.

title: Association Between ADHD and Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

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OBJECTIVE Impulsivity and inattention related to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may increase food intake and, consequently, weight gain. However, findings on the association between obesity/overweight and ADHD are mixed. The authors conducted a meta-analysis to estimate this association.
 METHOD A broad range of databases was searched through Aug. 31, 2014. Unpublished studies were also obtained. Study quality was rated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random-effects models were used.
 RESULTS Forty-two studies that included a total of 728,136 individuals (48,161 ADHD subjects; 679,975 comparison subjects) were retained. A significant association between obesity and ADHD was found for both children (odds ratio=1.20, 95% CI=1.05-1.37) and adults (odds ratio=1.55, 95% CI=1.32-1.81). The pooled prevalence of obesity was increased by about 70% in adults with ADHD (28.2%, 95% CI=22.8-34.4) compared with those without ADHD (16.4%, 95% CI=13.4-19.9), and by about 40% in children with ADHD (10.3%, 95% CI=7.9-13.3) compared with those without ADHD (7.4%, 95% CI=5.4-10.1). The significant association between ADHD and obesity remained when limited to studies 1) reporting odds ratios adjusted for possible confounding factors; 2) diagnosing ADHD by direct interview; and 3) using directly measured height and weight. Gender, study setting, study country, and study quality did not moderate the association between obesity and ADHD. ADHD was also significantly associated with overweight. Individuals medicated for ADHD were not at higher risk of obesity.
 CONCLUSIONS This study provides meta-analytic evidence for a significant association between ADHD and obesity/overweight. Further research should address possible underlying mechanisms and the long-term effects of ADHD treatments on weight in individuals with both ADHD and obesity.

title: Cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and carotid artery intima-media thickness in adulthood: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

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CONTEXT Exposure to cardiovascular risk factors during childhood and adolescence may be associated with the development of atherosclerosis later in life.
 OBJECTIVE To study the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors measured in childhood and adolescence and common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), a marker of preclinical atherosclerosis, measured in adulthood.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Population-based, prospective cohort study conducted at 5 centers in Finland among 2229 white adults aged 24 to 39 years who were examined in childhood and adolescence at ages 3 to 18 years in 1980 and reexamined 21 years later, between September 2001 and January 2002.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Association between cardiovascular risk variables (levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and triglycerides; LDL-C/HDL-C ratio; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; body mass index; smoking) measured in childhood and adulthood and common carotid artery IMT measured in adulthood.
 RESULTS In multivariable models adjusted for age and sex, IMT in adulthood was significantly associated with childhood LDL-C levels (P =.001), systolic blood pressure (P<.001), body mass index (P =.007), and smoking (P =.02), and with adult systolic blood pressure (P<.001), body mass index (P<.001), and smoking (P =.004). The number of risk factors measured in 12- to 18-year-old adolescents, including high levels (ie, extreme age- and sex-specific 80th percentile) of LDL-C, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and cigarette smoking, were directly related to carotid IMT measured in young adults at ages 33 through 39 years (P<.001 for both men and women), and remained significant after adjustment for contemporaneous risk variables. The number of risk factors measured at ages 3 to 9 years demonstrated a weak direct relationship with carotid IMT at ages 24 to 30 years in men (P =.02) but not in women (P =.63).
 CONCLUSIONS Risk factor profile assessed in 12- to 18-year-old adolescents predicts adult common carotid artery IMT independently of contemporaneous risk factors. These findings suggest that exposure to cardiovascular risk factors early in life may induce changes in arteries that contribute to the development of atherosclerosis.

title: Residual lifetime risk for developing hypertension in middle-aged women and men: The Framingham Heart Study.

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CONTEXT The long-term risk for developing hypertension is best described by the lifetime risk statistic. The lifetime risk for hypertension and trends in this risk over time are unknown.
 OBJECTIVES To estimate the residual lifetime risk for hypertension in older US adults and to evaluate temporal trends in this risk.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Community-based prospective cohort study of 1298 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were aged 55 to 65 years and free of hypertension at baseline (1976-1998).
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Residual lifetime risk (lifetime cumulative incidence not adjusted for competing causes of mortality) for hypertension, defined as blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or greater or use of antihypertensive medications.
 RESULTS The residual lifetime risks for developing hypertension and stage 1 high blood pressure or higher (greater-than-or-equal to 140/90 mm Hg regardless of treatment) were 90% in both 55- and 65-year-old participants. The lifetime probability of receiving antihypertensive medication was 60%. The risk for hypertension remained unchanged for women, but it was approximately 60% higher for men in the contemporary 1976-1998 period compared with an earlier 1952-1975 period. In contrast, the residual lifetime risk for stage 2 high blood pressure or higher (greater-than-or-equal to 160/100 mm Hg regardless of treatment) was considerably lower in both sexes in the recent period (35%-57% in 1952-1975 vs 35%-44% in 1976-1998), likely due to a marked increase in treatment of individuals with substantially elevated blood pressure.
 CONCLUSION The residual lifetime risk for hypertension for middle-aged and elderly individuals is 90%, indicating a huge public health burden. Although the decline in lifetime risk for stage 2 high blood pressure or higher represents a major achievement, efforts should be directed at the primary prevention of hypertension.

title: Knowledge of young African American adults about heart disease: a cross-sectional survey

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BACKGROUND African Americans have higher rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality than other ethnic groups. Young adults are prime targets for intervention strategies to prevent and reduce disease risk. The study purpose was to determine the level of knowledge of lifestyle risk factors for CVD among young African American adults in Phoenix. The results will be used to guide the development of CVD outreach programs targeted to this population. The Health Belief Model was used as a conceptual framework.
 METHODS A convenience sample of 172 African American men and women aged 18-26 years completed a questionnaire adapted from the American Heart Association national surveys. Descriptive statistics were compared by age, gender, education level, and health status variables including BMI, smoking status, and physical activity.
 RESULTS Some aspects of heart-disease were well known among young adult African Americans. Knowledge of certain other important risk factors (menopause) and preventive behaviors (eating fewer animal products), however, was more variable and inconsistent among the respondents. Differences in knowledge of individual variables was greater by education level than by gender overall. Predictors of a summary CVD knowledge score included higher education, female gender, and high self-efficacy (adjusted R2 = 0.158, p < .001). Predictors of self-efficacy in changing CVD risk were higher education and perceived low risk of CVD (adjusted R2 = 0.064, p < .001), but these characteristics explained only 6% of the variance.
 CONCLUSIONS Evaluation of baseline knowledge of CVD is essential before designing and implementing health promotion programs. Existing strengths and weaknesses in knowledge can guide tailoring of programs to be more effective. Further research would help to identify the range of other characteristics that determine knowledge and risk perception.

title: Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

text: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

title: Plasma homocysteine is a risk factor for recurrent vascular events in young patients with an ischaemic stroke or TIA

text: Young patients with an ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) often have no vascular risk factors. Hyperhomocysteinaemia is an established risk factor for stroke in elderly patients but it is uncertain whether it is also important for the prognosis of young ischaemic stroke and TIA patients. We examined the possible effect of the plasma homocysteine level on the risk of recurrent vascular events in patients between 18 and 45 years of age. The study population consisted of 161 consecutive patients with a recent cerebral infarction or TIA. Data on the primary event and the homocysteine level were collected retrospectively from hospital records. General practitioners and patients were contacted by telephone to record vascular events and the type of medication used during the follow–up period. Vascular events included cerebral infarction, TIA, pulmonary embolism, venous thrombosis, myocardial infarction and peripheral arterial disease. A Kaplan- Meier curve showed a dose effect relationship between event-free survival time and tertiles of the homocysteine level (Log rank statistic 5.91; p = 0.05). The Cox hazard ratio, after adjustment for homocysteine lowering treatment, was 1.7 (95 % CI, 1.1 to 2.8) for any vascular outcome event, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.1 to 3.0) for arterial outcome events and 1.8 (95 % CI, 1.1 to 2.9) for cerebral outcome events. In spite of our small number of outcome events we found a significant association at the 95% confidence level between homocysteine level and the risk of recurrent vascular events in young patients with an ischaemic stroke or TIA. The association is of the same magnitude as in elderly people.

title: The benefits of statins in people without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

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OBJECTIVES To investigate whether statins reduce all cause mortality and major coronary and cerebrovascular events in people without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors, and whether these effects are similar in men and women, in young and older (>65 years) people, and in people with diabetes mellitus.
 DESIGN Meta-analysis of randomised trials.
 DATA SOURCES Cochrane controlled trials register, Embase, and Medline. Data abstraction Two independent investigators identified studies on the clinical effects of statins compared with a placebo or control group and with follow-up of at least one year, at least 80% or more participants without established cardiovascular disease, and outcome data on mortality and major cardiovascular disease events. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Q and I(2) statistics. Publication bias was assessed by visual examination of funnel plots and the Egger regression test.
 RESULTS 10 trials enrolled a total of 70 388 people, of whom 23 681 (34%) were women and 16 078 (23%) had diabetes mellitus. Mean follow-up was 4.1 years. Treatment with statins significantly reduced the risk of all cause mortality (odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96), major coronary events (0.70, 0.61 to 0.81), and major cerebrovascular events (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). No evidence of an increased risk of cancer was observed. There was no significant heterogeneity of the treatment effect in clinical subgroups.
 CONCLUSION In patients without established cardiovascular disease but with cardiovascular risk factors, statin use was associated with significantly improved survival and large reductions in the risk of major cardiovascular events.

title: Longitudinal Genome-Wide Association of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in the Bogalusa Heart Study

text: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies have pinpointed many loci associated with CVD risk factors in adults. It is unclear, however, if these loci predict trait levels at all ages, if they are associated with how a trait develops over time, or if they could be used to screen individuals who are pre-symptomatic to provide the opportunity for preventive measures before disease onset. We completed a genome-wide association study on participants in the longitudinal Bogalusa Heart Study (BHS) and have characterized the association between genetic factors and the development of CVD risk factors from childhood to adulthood. We report 7 genome-wide significant associations involving CVD risk factors, two of which have been previously reported. Top regions were tested for replication in the Young Finns Study (YF) and two associations strongly replicated: rs247616 in CETP with HDL levels (combined P = 9.7 x 10(-24)), and rs445925 at APOE with LDL levels (combined P = 8.7 x 10(-19)). We show that SNPs previously identified in adult cross-sectional studies tend to show age-independent effects in the BHS with effect sizes consistent with previous reports. Previously identified variants were associated with adult trait levels above and beyond those seen in childhood; however, variants with time-dependent effects were also promising predictors. This is the first GWA study to evaluate the role of common genetic variants in the development of CVD risk factors in children as they advance through adulthood and highlights the utility of using longitudinal studies to identify genetic predictors of adult traits in children.

title: Female Gender and Reproductive Factors Affecting Risk, Relapses and Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

text: Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory demyelina-ting and degenerative disease of the central nervous system, is a frequent cause of neurological disability in young adults. Female predominance has increased over the last decades. Although female gender carries a higher risk of developing relapsing remitting MS, being female and at child-bearing age also appears to provide some protection against cognitive decline and against progressive onset MS, an adverse predictive factor when considering long-term disability in MS. The risk of MS in women has been associated with an earlier age at menarche. In most studies, parity did not impact MS risk. However, the recently published association of higher parity and offspring number with a reduced risk of a first demyelinating event suggests a potential suppressive effect. Pregnancy in MS patients has been associated with a reduced relapse rate and a reduction of neurological symptoms, especially in the third trimester. Despite the increased relapse risk in the postpartum period, there is no indication of an adverse effect of childbirth on the long-term course of MS. Fertility treatment in MS has been associated with an increased relapse risk in the following 3-month period, especially when the procedure did not result in pregnancy and gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonists were used. Altogether, there is substantial evidence to support a regulatory role of sex steroid hormones in MS. In the absence of correlations with single hormone blood levels, we can only speculate about the underlying mechanisms. In conclusion, the increased MS risk in women and the changes in relapse and progression risk in association with reproductive events suggest significant and complex interactions between immune, neuroendocrine and reproductive systems in MS.

title: Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital

text: In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.

title: Alcohol Sales and Risk of Serious Assault

text:
BACKGROUND Alcohol is a contributing cause of unintentional injuries, such as motor vehicle crashes. Prior research on the association between alcohol use and violent injury was limited to survey-based data, and the inclusion of cases from a single trauma centre, without adequate controls. Beyond these limitations was the inability of prior researchers to comprehensively capture most alcohol sales. In Ontario, most alcohol is sold through retail outlets run by the provincial government, and hospitals are financed under a provincial health care system. We assessed the risk of being hospitalized due to assault in association with retail alcohol sales across Ontario.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We performed a population-based case-crossover analysis of all persons aged 13 years and older hospitalized for assault in Ontario from 1 April 2002 to 1 December 2004. On the day prior to each assault case's hospitalization, the volume of alcohol sold at the store in closest proximity to the victim's home was compared to the volume of alcohol sold at the same store 7 d earlier. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the associated relative risk (RR) of assault per 1,000 l higher daily sales of alcohol. Of the 3,212 persons admitted to hospital for assault, nearly 25% were between the ages of 13 and 20 y, and 83% were male. A total of 1,150 assaults (36%) involved the use of a sharp or blunt weapon, and 1,532 (48%) arose during an unarmed brawl or fight. For every 1,000 l more of alcohol sold per store per day, the relative risk of being hospitalized for assault was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.26). The risk was accentuated for males (1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.33), youth aged 13 to 20 y (1.21, 95% CI 0.99-1.46), and those in urban areas (1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.35).
 CONCLUSIONS The risk of being a victim of serious assault increases with alcohol sales, especially among young urban men. Akin to reducing the risk of driving while impaired, consideration should be given to novel methods of preventing alcohol-related violence.

title: Heart failure admissions in adults with congenital heart disease; risk factors and prognosis.

text:
BACKGROUND Heart failure (HF) is a serious complication and often the cause of death in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD). Therefore, our aims were to determine the frequency of HF-admissions, and to assess risk factors of first HF-admission and of mortality after first HF-admission in adults with CHD.
 METHODS The Dutch CONCOR registry was linked to the Hospital Discharge Registry and National Mortality Registry to obtain data on HF-admissions and mortality. Risk factors for both HF-admission and mortality were assessed using Cox regression models.
 RESULTS Of 10,808 adult patients (49% male), 274 (2.5%) were admitted for HF during a median follow-up period of 21 years. The incidence of first HF-admission was 1.2 per 1000 patient-years, but the incidence of HF itself will be higher. Main defect, multiple defects, and surgical interventions in childhood were identified as independent risk factors of HF-admission. Patients admitted for HF had a five-fold higher risk of mortality than patients not admitted (hazard ratio (HR)=5.3; 95% confidence interval 4.2-6.9). One- and three-year mortality after first HF-admission were 24% and 35% respectively. Independent risk factors for three-year mortality after first HF-admission were male gender, pacemaker implantation, admission duration, non-cardiac medication use and high serum creatinine.
 CONCLUSIONS The incidence of HF-admission in adults with CHD is 1.2 per 1000 patient-years. Mortality risk is substantially increased after HF-admission, which emphasises the importance to identify patients at high risk of HF-admission. These patients might benefit from closer follow-up and earlier medical interventions. The presented risk factors may facilitate surveillance.

title: Cardiovascular risk factors and migraine: the GEM population-based study.

text:
BACKGROUND Migraine, particularly with aura, is a risk factor for early-onset ischemic stroke. The underlying mechanisms are unknown, but may in part be due to migraineurs having an increased risk profile for cardiovascular disease. In this study, the authors compare the cardiovascular risk profile of adult migraineurs to that of nonmigraineurs.
 METHODS Participants (n = 5,755, 48% men, age 20 to 65 years) are from the Genetic Epidemiology of Migraine (GEM) study, a population-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 620 current migraineurs were identified: 31% with aura (MA), 64% without aura (MO), and 5% unclassified. Controls were 5,135 individuals without lifetime migraine. Measured cardiovascular risk factors included blood pressure (BP), serum total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC, HDL), smoking, oral contraceptive use, and the Framingham risk score for myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease (CHD) death.
 RESULTS Compared to controls, migraineurs were more likely to smoke (OR = 1.43 [1.1 to 1.8]), less likely to consume alcohol (OR = 0.58 [0.5 to 0.7]), and more likely to report a parental history of early myocardial infarction. Migraineurs with aura were more likely to have an unfavorable cholesterol profile (TC > or = 240 mg/dL [OR = 1.43 (0.97 to 2.1)], TC:HDL ratio > 5.0 [OR = 1.64 (1.1 to 2.4)]), have elevated BP (systolic BP > 140 mm Hg or diastolic BP > 90 mm Hg [OR = 1.76 (1.04 to 3.0)]), and report a history of early onset CHD or stroke (OR = 3.96 [1.1 to 14.3]); female migraineurs with aura were more likely to be using oral contraceptives (OR = 2.06 [1.05 to 4.0]). The odds of having an elevated Framingham risk score for CHD were approximately doubled for the migraineurs with aura.
 CONCLUSIONS Migraineurs, particularly with aura, have a higher cardiovascular risk profile than individuals without migraine.

title: The World Health Organization Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS): a short screening scale for use in the general population.

text:
BACKGROUND A self-report screening scale of adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), the World Health Organization (WHO) Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) was developed in conjunction with revision of the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The current report presents data on concordance of the ASRS and of a short-form ASRS screener with blind clinical diagnoses in a community sample.
 METHOD The ASRS includes 18 questions about frequency of recent DSM-IV Criterion A symptoms of adult ADHD. The ASRS screener consists of six out of these 18 questions that were selected based on stepwise logistic regression to optimize concordance with the clinical classification. ASRS responses were compared to blind clinical ratings of DSM-IV adult ADHD in a sample of 154 respondents who previously participated in the US National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), oversampling those who reported childhood ADHD and adult persistence.
 RESULTS Each ASRS symptom measure was significantly related to the comparable clinical symptom rating, but varied substantially in concordance (Cohen's kappa in the range 0.16-0.81). Optimal scoring to predict clinical syndrome classifications was to sum unweighted dichotomous responses across all 18 ASRS questions. However, because of the wide variation in symptom-level concordance, the unweighted six-question ASRS screener outperformed the unweighted 18-question ASRS in sensitivity (68.7% v. 56.3%), specificity (99.5% v. 98.3%), total classification accuracy (97.9% v. 96.2%), and kappa (0.76 v. 0.58).
 CONCLUSIONS Clinical calibration in larger samples might show that a weighted version of the 18-question ASRS outperforms the six-question ASRS screener. Until that time, however, the unweighted screener should be preferred to the full ASRS, both in community surveys and in clinical outreach and case-finding initiatives.


query: Incidence of 10/66 dementia is higher than the incidence of DSM-IV dementia.

title: Dementia incidence and mortality in middle-income countries, and associations with indicators of cognitive reserve: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based cohort study

text:
BACKGROUND Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve.
 METHODS We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3-5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death.
 FINDINGS 12,887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11,718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34,718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4-2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9-15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56-5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4-19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56-1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61-0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81-0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95-1·13).
 INTERPRETATION Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia.
 FUNDING Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV.

title: Antihypertensive classes, cognitive decline and incidence of dementia: a network meta-analysis.

text:
OBJECTIVES Prevention of cognitive decline and dementia with blood pressure lowering treatments has shown inconsistent results. We compared the effects of different classes of antihypertensive drugs on the incidence of dementia, and on cognitive function.
 METHODS We conducted a systematic review and included 19 randomized trials (18 515 individuals) and 11 studies (831 674 individuals) analysing the effects of antihypertensive treatment on cognition and on the incidence of dementia, respectively, in hypertensive patients without prior cerebrovascular disorders. Network meta-analysis was used for the comparison of antihypertensive classes.
 RESULTS Antihypertensive treatment, regardless of the drug class, had benefits on overall cognition [effect size 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.07] and all cognitive functions except language. Antihypertensive treatment reduced the risk of all-cause dementia by 9%, with reference to the control group (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.89-0.94), when randomized trials and observationnal studies were combined (n = 15). Result was not significant with randomized trials alone (n = 4). Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) had larger benefits than placebo on overall cognition (adjusted effect size 0.60 ± 0.18, P = 0.02). ARBs were more effective than β-blockers (0.67 ± 0.18, P = 0.01), diuretics (0.54 ± 0.19, P = 0.04) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (0.47 ± 0.17, P = 0.04) in rank. The mean change in blood pressure did not differ significantly between the different antihypertensive drug classes.
 CONCLUSION Our results support the notion that antihypertensive treatment has beneficial effects on cognitive decline and prevention of dementia, and indicate that these effects may differ between drug classes with ARBs possibly being the most effective.

title: "The contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of dependence among older people in Latin America, China and India: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey"

text:
BACKGROUND The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries.
 METHODS A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated.
 RESULTS The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%).
 CONCLUSION The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.

title: Reproductive period and risk of dementia in postmenopausal women.

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CONTEXT Exogenous estrogen use may lower risk of dementia in postmenopausal women. A relationship between long-term exposure to endogenous estrogens and incident dementia has been hypothesized but not studied.
 OBJECTIVE To determine whether a longer reproductive period, as an indicator of longer exposure to endogenous estrogens, is associated with lower risk of dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) in women who have natural menopause.
 DESIGN AND SETTING The Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands.
 PARTICIPANTS A total of 3601 women aged 55 years or older who did not have dementia at baseline (1990-1993) and had information on age at menarche, age at menopause, and type of menopause. Participants were reexamined in 1993-1994 and 1997-1999 and were continuously monitored for development of dementia.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of dementia, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Revised Third Edition criteria, and AD, based on National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, compared by quartiles of reproductive period among women with natural menopause.
 RESULTS During 21 046 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 6.3 years), 199 women developed dementia, including 159 who developed AD. After adjusting for age, dementia was not clearly associated with length of reproductive period. However, after adjusting for multiple covariates, women with natural menopause and more reproductive years had an increased risk of dementia (adjusted rate ratio [RR] for women with >39 reproductive years [highest quartile] compared with <34 reproductive years [lowest quartile], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.84). The adjusted RR per year of increase was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.08). For risk of AD, the adjusted RRs were 1.51 (95% CI, 0.91-2.50) and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07), respectively. Risk of dementia associated with a longer reproductive period was most pronounced in APOE epsilon4 carriers (adjusted RR for >39 reproductive years compared with <34 reproductive years, 4.20 [95% CI, 1.97-8.92] for dementia and 3.42 [95% CI, 1.51-7.75] for AD), whereas in noncarriers, no clear association with dementia or AD was observed.
 CONCLUSION Our findings do not support the hypothesis that a longer reproductive period reduces risk of dementia in women who have natural menopause.

title: The association between common physical impairments and dementia in low and middle income countries, and, among people with dementia, their association with cognitive function and disability. A 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based study.

text:
OBJECTIVE Chronic physical comorbidity is common in dementia. However, there is an absence of evidence to support good practice guidelines for attention to these problems. We aimed to study the extent of this comorbidity and its impact on cognitive function and disability in population-based studies in low and middle income countries, where chronic diseases and impairments are likely to be both common and undertreated.
 METHODS A multicentre cross-sectional survey of all over 65 year old residents (n = 15 022) in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We estimated the prevalence of pain, incontinence, hearing and visual impairments, mobility impairment and undernutrition according to the presence of dementia and its severity, and, among those with dementia, the independent contribution of these impairments to cognitive function and disability, adjusting for age, gender, education and dementia severity.
 RESULTS Incontinence, hearing impairment, mobility impairment and undernutrition were consistently linearly associated with the presence of dementia and its severity across regions. Among people with dementia, incontinence, hearing impairment and mobility impairment were independently associated with disability in all regions while the contributions of pain, visual impairment and undernutrition were inconsistent. Only hearing impairment made a notable independent contribution to cognitive impairment.
 CONCLUSIONS There is an urgent need for clinical trials of the feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of regular physical health checks and remediation of identified pathologies, given the considerable comorbidity identified in our population based studies, and the strong evidence for independent impact upon functioning.

title: A European perspective on population studies of dementia.

text: The change in the world's age demographics and the predicted rise in the incidence of age-related diseases, including dementia, is a source of major public health concern. Major research effort in both the United States and Europe has been targeted toward understanding the pathogenesis and epidemiology of dementia. This article presents a general overview of the history of dementia research in Europe and how it compares with that in the United States. The review highlights the common issues which both U.S. and European researchers have identified and attempted to tackle. To maximize information gained from studies across the world, better harmonization of methodology is needed, as informed from current research practice.

title: Mortality risk in patients with dementia treated with antipsychotics versus other psychiatric medications.

text:
OBJECTIVE Mortality rates in the year following new antipsychotic medication starts for neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia were compared with rates after starts of other psychiatric medications.
 METHOD The retrospective, cohort study used national data from the Department of Veterans Affairs (fiscal years 2001-2005) on patients older than 65 years who began outpatient treatment with psychiatric medication following a dementia diagnosis (N=10,615). Twelve-month mortality rates were compared in patients taking antipsychotics and those taking other psychiatric medications. The authors controlled for confounding by using multivariate models and propensity-scoring methods. Secondary analyses included a no-medication group and examination of mortality causes.
 RESULTS All groups taking antipsychotics had significantly higher mortality rates (22.6%-29.1%) than patients taking nonantipsychotic medications (14.6%). Adjusted mortality risks for atypicals and for combined atypical and conventional antipsychotics were similar to those for conventional antipsychotics. The mortality risk was significantly lower for nonantipsychotic medications than conventional antipsychotics. Except for anticonvulsants, the adjusted risks for all individual classes of nonantipsychotics were significantly lower than the risk for antipsychotics. Mortality risks did not change over 12 months. The proportions of patients taking antipsychotics who died from cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, or infectious causes were not higher than rates for those taking nonantipsychotic psychiatric medications.
 CONCLUSIONS Antipsychotic medications taken by patients with dementia were associated with higher mortality rates than were most other medications used for neuropsychiatric symptoms. The association between mortality and antipsychotics is not well understood and may be due to a direct medication effect or the pathophysiology underlying neuropsychiatric symptoms that prompt antipsychotic use.

title: Ankle brachial index as a predictor of cognitive impairment in the general population: ten-year follow-up of the Edinburgh Artery Study.

text:
OBJECTIVES To determine whether the ankle brachial index (ABI, a marker of generalized atherosclerosis) is associated with cognitive impairment after 10 years in older people.
 DESIGN Cohort study (Edinburgh Artery Study).
 SETTING Eleven general practices in Edinburgh, Scotland.
 PARTICIPANTS Seven hundred seventeen men and women aged 55 to 74 from the general population, followed for 10 years.
 MEASUREMENTS ABI measured at baseline and major cognitive functions (including premorbid function using the National Adult Reading Test, NART) tested after 10 years.
 RESULTS After adjustment for age and sex, a low ABI was associated with lower scoring (bottom tertile vs top tertile) on Raven's Matrices (odds ratio (OR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.0-2.6), Verbal Fluency (OR =1.8, 95% CI =1.1-3.0), and Digit Symbol Test (OR =2.3, 95% CI =1.3-4.2), suggesting that the ABI is predictive of poorer performance in nonverbal reasoning, verbal fluency, and information processing speed. The association between ABI and the Digit Symbol Test remained significant after further adjustment for premorbid cognitive function (tested using the NART), suggesting that the ABI is also predictive of decline in information processing speed (from premorbid ability to that measured here in older age).
 CONCLUSION The ABI may be useful in identifying older individuals at higher risk of cognitive impairment. In the future, preventive measures developed to target individuals with a low ABI should consider measures to reduce vascular-related cognitive decline as well as cardiovascular events, in an effort to reduce the incidence and consequences of subsequent cognitive impairment and dementia.

title: Aggregation of vascular risk factors and risk of incident Alzheimer disease.

text:
BACKGROUND The prevalence of Alzheimer disease (AD) is increasing in the elderly, and vascular risk factors may increase its risk.
 OBJECTIVE To explore the association of the aggregation of vascular risk factors with AD.
 METHODS The authors followed 1,138 individuals without dementia at baseline (mean age 76.2) for a mean of 5.5 years. The presence of vascular risk factors was related to incident possible and probable AD.
 RESULTS Four risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and current smoking) were associated with a higher risk of AD (p < 0.10) when analyzed individually. The risk of AD increased with the number of risk factors (diabetes + hypertension + heart disease + current smoking). The adjusted hazards ratio of probable AD for the presence of three or more risk factors was 3.4 (95% CI: 1.8, 6.3; p for trend < 0.0001) compared with no risk factors. Diabetes and current smoking were the strongest risk factors in isolation or in clusters, but hypertension and heart disease were also related to a higher risk of AD when clustered with diabetes, smoking, or each other.
 CONCLUSIONS The risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with the number of vascular risk factors. Diabetes and current smoking were the strongest risk factors, but clusters including hypertension and heart disease also increased the risk of AD. These associations are unlikely to be explained by misclassification of the outcome, given strong associations when only probable AD is considered.

title: Effects of a High-Intensity Functional Exercise Program on Dependence in Activities of Daily Living and Balance in Older Adults with Dementia

text:
OBJECTIVES To investigate the effects of a high-intensity functional exercise program on independence in activities of daily living (ADLs) and balance in older people with dementia and whether exercise effects differed between dementia types.
 DESIGN Cluster-randomized controlled trial: Umeå Dementia and Exercise (UMDEX) study.
 SETTING Residential care facilities, Umeå, Sweden.
 PARTICIPANTS Individuals aged 65 and older with a dementia diagnosis, a Mini-Mental State Examination score of 10 or greater, and dependence in ADLs (N=186).
 INTERVENTION Ninety-three participants each were allocated to the high-intensity functional exercise program, comprising lower limb strength and balance exercises, and 93 to a seated control activity.
 MEASUREMENTS Blinded assessors measured ADL independence using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) and Barthel Index (BI) and balance using the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) at baseline and 4 (directly after intervention completion) and 7 months.
 RESULTS Linear mixed models showed no between-group effect on ADL independence at 4 (FIM=1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=-1.6-4.3; BI=0.6, 95% CI=-0.2-1.4) or 7 (FIM=0.8, 95% CI=-2.2-3.8; BI=0.6, 95% CI=-0.3-1.4) months. A significant between-group effect on balance favoring exercise was observed at 4 months (BBS=4.2, 95% CI=1.8-6.6). In interaction analyses, exercise effects differed significantly between dementia types. Positive between-group exercise effects were found in participants with non-Alzheimer's dementia according to the FIM at 7 months and BI and BBS at 4 and 7 months.
 CONCLUSION In older people with mild to moderate dementia living in residential care facilities, a 4-month high-intensity functional exercise program appears to slow decline in ADL independence and improve balance, albeit only in participants with non-Alzheimer's dementia.

title: Risk of death with atypical antipsychotic drug treatment for dementia: meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials.

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CONTEXT Atypical antipsychotic medications are widely used to treat delusions, aggression, and agitation in people with Alzheimer disease and other dementia; however, concerns have arisen about the increased risk for cerebrovascular adverse events, rapid cognitive decline, and mortality with their use.
 OBJECTIVE To assess the evidence for increased mortality from atypical antipsychotic drug treatment for people with dementia.
 DATA SOURCES MEDLINE (1966 to April 2005), the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (2005, Issue 1), meetings presentations (1997-2004), and information from the sponsors were searched using the terms for atypical antipsychotic drugs (aripiprazole, clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone), dementia, Alzheimer disease, and clinical trial.    STUDY SELECTION Published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled, parallel-group clinical trials of atypical antipsychotic drugs marketed in the United States to treat patients with Alzheimer disease or dementia were selected by consensus of the authors.
 DATA EXTRACTION Trials, baseline characteristics, outcomes, all-cause dropouts, and deaths were extracted by one reviewer; treatment exposure was obtained or estimated. Data were checked by a second reviewer.
 DATA SYNTHESIS Fifteen trials (9 unpublished), generally 10 to 12 weeks in duration, including 16 contrasts of atypical antipsychotic drugs with placebo met criteria (aripiprazole [n = 3], olanzapine [n = 5], quetiapine [n = 3], risperidone [n = 5]). A total of 3353 patients were randomized to study drug and 1757 were randomized to placebo. Outcomes were assessed using standard methods (with random- or fixed-effects models) to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences based on patients randomized and relative risks based on total exposure to treatment. There were no differences in dropouts. Death occurred more often among patients randomized to drugs (118 [3.5%] vs 40 [2.3%]. The OR by meta-analysis was 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.23; P = .02; and risk difference was 0.01; 95% CI, 0.004-0.02; P = .01). Sensitivity analyses did not show evidence for differential risks for individual drugs, severity, sample selection, or diagnosis.
 CONCLUSIONS Atypical antipsychotic drugs may be associated with a small increased risk for death compared with placebo. This risk should be considered within the context of medical need for the drugs, efficacy evidence, medical comorbidity, and the efficacy and safety of alternatives. Individual patient analyses modeling survival and causes of death are needed.

title: Hypoglycemic episodes and risk of dementia in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

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CONTEXT Although acute hypoglycemia may be associated with cognitive impairment in children with type 1 diabetes, no studies to date have evaluated whether hypoglycemia is a risk factor for dementia in older patients with type 2 diabetes.
 OBJECTIVE To determine if hypoglycemic episodes severe enough to require hospitalization are associated with an increased risk of dementia in a population of older patients with type 2 diabetes followed up for 27 years.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A longitudinal cohort study from 1980-2007 of 16,667 patients with a mean age of 65 years and type 2 diabetes who are members of an integrated health care delivery system in northern California.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Hypoglycemic events from 1980-2002 were collected and reviewed using hospital discharge and emergency department diagnoses. Cohort members with no prior diagnoses of dementia, mild cognitive impairment, or general memory complaints as of January 1, 2003, were followed up for a dementia diagnosis through January 15, 2007. Dementia risk was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, duration of diabetes, 7-year mean glycated hemoglobin, diabetes treatment, duration of insulin use, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, stroke, transient cerebral ischemia, and end-stage renal disease.
 RESULTS At least 1 episode of hypoglycemia was diagnosed in 1465 patients (8.8%) and dementia was diagnosed in 1822 patients (11%) during follow-up; 250 patients had both dementia and at least 1 episode of hypoglycemia (16.95%). Compared with patients with no hypoglycemia, patients with single or multiple episodes had a graded increase in risk with fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs): for 1 episode (HR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.49); 2 episodes (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.37-2.36); and 3 or more episodes (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.42-2.64). The attributable risk of dementia between individuals with and without a history of hypoglycemia was 2.39% per year (95% CI, 1.72%-3.01%). Results were not attenuated when medical utilization rates, length of health plan membership, or time since initial diabetes diagnosis were added to the model. When examining emergency department admissions for hypoglycemia for association with risk of dementia (535 episodes), results were similar (compared with patients with 0 episodes) with fully adjusted HRs: for 1 episode (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.78) and for 2 or more episodes (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.57-3.55).
 CONCLUSIONS Among older patients with type 2 diabetes, a history of severe hypoglycemic episodes was associated with a greater risk of dementia. Whether minor hypoglycemic episodes increase risk of dementia is unknown.

title: A population-based cohort study to elucidate temporal relationship between schizophrenia and metabolic syndrome (KCIS no. PSY3).

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BACKGROUND The bidirectional relationships between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and schizophrenia (SCZ) play a crucial role in clinical treatment of both diseases but such bidirectional causal effects have not been comprehensively elucidated.    AIMS To investigate the influence of MetS on incident SCZ and the opposite direction as well as their predictors for each direction with a population-based cohort sample.
 METHOD We enrolled 76,545 subjects who had participated in a community-based health screening program during 1999-2004. After excluding those with the existing MetS or SCZ at baseline, the two normal prospective cohorts corresponding to each independent variable of MetS or SCZ, respectively, were followed over time to ascertain incident outcome of SCZ and MetS. The crude and adjusted hazard ratios for the effect of the predictor on each incident outcome were estimated after controlling for the possible confounding factors.
 RESULTS The overall incidence rate (per 10(5)person-years) of SCZ was 61.15. The incidence rate in patients with MetS was lower than those without (44.24 versus 64.20), indicating the presence of MetS failed to find an increased risk of developing incident SCZ. However, participants with abnormal waist circumference (WC) were two times (95% CI: 1.37 to 2.93) more likely to yield incident SCZ compared to those with normal WC. In the opposite direction, the incidence of MetS was statistically higher in patients with SCZ than those without SCZ (11.25% vs 7.94%, respectively), suggesting SCZ conferred a higher risk for yielding incident MetS (adjusted hazard ratio=1.89, 95% CI: 1.36, 2.63).
 CONCLUSIONS After examining the bidirectional causal relationships between SCZ and MetS with the theoretically sound and large population-based prospective cohort study, central obesity, one of the individual components of MetS, was corroborated as an independent predictor for incident SCZ. Patients diagnosed with SCZ were at greater risk of having incident cases of MetS. Such significant temporal bidirectional relationships between SCZ and central obesity suggest a reciprocal interaction exits between SCZ and central obesity.

title: Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of cancers of unknown primary site in an Australian population: implications for research and clinical care.

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OBJECTIVES To investigate incidence, mortality and case survival trends for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) and consider clinical implications.
 METHOD South Australian Cancer Registry data were used to calculate age-standardised incidence and mortality rates from 1977 to 2004. Disease-specific survivals, socio-demographic, histological and secular predictors of CUP, compared with cancers of known primary site, and of CUP histological types, using multivariable logistic regression were investigated.
 RESULTS Incidence and mortality rates increased approximately 60% between 1977--80 and 1981--84. Rates peaked in 1993--96. Male to female incidence and mortality rate ratios approximated 1.3:1. Incidence and mortality rates increased with age. The odds of unspecified histological type, compared with the more common adenocarcinomas, were higher for males than females, non-metropolitan residents, low socio-economic areas, and for 1977--88 than subsequent diagnostic periods. CUP represented a higher proportion of cancers in Indigenous patients. Case survival was 7% at 10 years from diagnosis. Factors predictive of lower case survival included older age, male sex, Indigenous status, lower socio-economic status, and unspecified histology type.
 CONCLUSION Results point to poor CUP outcomes, but with a modest improvement in survival. The study identifies socio-demographic groups at elevated risk of CUP and of worse treatment outcomes where increased research and clinical attention are required.

title: 131-I radioiodine therapy for hyperthyroidism in patients with Graves' disease, uninodular goitre and multinodular goitre.

text: We studied 201 consecutive patients who received a relatively fixed dose of radioiodine for the treatment of hyperthyroidism between the years 1981-6. Patients with Graves' disease (170) were initially treated with a mean (SE) dose of 369 (10) MBq 131-I with a remission rate of 94% at 6 months and a cumulative relapse rate of 12% at one year and 21% at 5 years. The cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism was 26% at 3 months, 55% at 6 months, 61% at 1 year and 66% at 5 years. Patients with a uninodular goitre (10) were initially treated with a mean (SE) dose of 438 (85) MBq 131-I with a remission rate of 100% at 6 months, without relapse at 1 year but relapsing in 17% at 5 years. The cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism was 26% at 3 months, 30% at 6 months, 40% at 1 year and 40% at 5 years. Patients with a multinodular goitre (21) were initially treated with a mean (SE) dose of 613 (77) MBq 131-I with a remission rate of 79% at 6 months and a cumulative relapse rate of 26% at 1 year and 39% at 5 years. The cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism was 5% at 3 months, 14% at 6 months, 24% at 1 year and 24% at 5 years.

title: Documented head injury in early adulthood and risk of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias.

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BACKGROUND The association between antecedent head injury and AD is inconsistent.
 OBJECTIVE To examine the association between early adult head injury, as documented by military hospital records, and dementia in late life; and to evaluate the interaction between head injury and APOE epsilon4 as risk factors for dementia.
 METHODS The study had a population-based prospective historical cohort design. It included men who were World War II Navy and Marine veterans, and were hospitalized during their military service with a diagnosis of either a nonpenetrating head injury or another unrelated condition. In 1996 to 1997, military medical records were abstracted to document the occurrence and details of closed head injury. The entire sample was then evaluated for dementia and AD using a multistage procedure. There were 548 veterans with head injury and 1228 without head injury who completed all assigned stages of the study. The authors estimated risk of dementia, specifically AD, using proportional hazards models.
 RESULTS Both moderate head injury (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.32; CI = 1.04 to 5.17) and severe head injury (HR = 4.51; CI = 1.77 to 11.47) were associated with increased risk of AD. Results were similar for dementia in general. The results for mild head injury were inconclusive. When the authors stratified by the number of APOE epsilon4 alleles, they observed a nonsignificant trend toward a stronger association between AD and head injury in men with more epsilon4 alleles.
 CONCLUSIONS Moderate and severe head injuries in young men may be associated with increased risk of AD and other dementias in late life. However, the authors cannot exclude the possibility that other unmeasured factors may be influencing this association.

title: Improved prognosis of thoracic aortic aneurysms: a population-based study.

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CONTEXT Managing thoracic aortic aneurysms identified incidentally by increased use of computed tomography, echocardiography, and magnetic resonance imaging is problematic, especially in the elderly.
 OBJECTIVE To ascertain whether the previously reported poor prognosis for individuals with thoracic aortic aneurysms has changed with better medical therapies and improved surgical techniques that can now be applied to aneurysm management.
 DESIGN Population-based cohort study.
 SETTING AND PATIENTS All 133 patients with the diagnosis of degenerative thoracic aortic aneurysms among Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents between 1980 and 1994 compared with a previously reported cohort of similar patients between 1951 and 1980.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary clinical end points were incidence, cumulative rupture risk, rupture risk as a function of aneurysm size, and survival.
 RESULTS In contrast to abdominal aortic aneurysms, for which men are affected predominately, 51% of thoracic aortic aneurysms were identified in women who were considerably older at recognition than men (mean age, 75.9 vs 62.8 years, respectively; P= .01). The overall incidence rate of 10.4 per 100000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.6-12.2) between 1980 and 1994 was more than 3-fold higher than the rate from 1951 to 1980. The cumulative risk of rupture was 20% after 5 years. Seventy-nine percent of ruptures occurred in women (P= .01). The 5-year risk of rupture as a function of aneurysm size at recognition was 0% for aneurysms less than 4 cm in diameter, 16% (95% CI, 4%-28%) for those 4 to 5.9 cm, and 31% (95% CI, 5%-56%) for aneurysms 6 cm or more. Overall 5-year survival improved to 56% (95% CI, 48%-66%) between 1980 and 1994 compared with only 19% between 1951 and 1980 (P<.01).
 CONCLUSIONS In this population, elderly women represent an increasing portion of all patients with clinically recognized thoracic aortic aneurysms and constitute the majority of patients whose aneurysm eventually ruptures. Overall survival for thoracic aortic aneurysms has improved significantly in the past 15 years.

title: Ataxia, dementia, and hypogonadotropism caused by disordered ubiquitination.

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BACKGROUND The combination of ataxia and hypogonadism was first described more than a century ago, but its genetic basis has remained elusive.
 METHODS We performed whole-exome sequencing in a patient with ataxia and hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, followed by targeted sequencing of candidate genes in similarly affected patients. Neurologic and reproductive endocrine phenotypes were characterized in detail. The effects of sequence variants and the presence of an epistatic interaction were tested in a zebrafish model.
 RESULTS Digenic homozygous mutations in RNF216 and OTUD4, which encode a ubiquitin E3 ligase and a deubiquitinase, respectively, were found in three affected siblings in a consanguineous family. Additional screening identified compound heterozygous truncating mutations in RNF216 in an unrelated patient and single heterozygous deleterious mutations in four other patients. Knockdown of rnf216 or otud4 in zebrafish embryos induced defects in the eye, optic tectum, and cerebellum; combinatorial suppression of both genes exacerbated these phenotypes, which were rescued by nonmutant, but not mutant, human RNF216 or OTUD4 messenger RNA. All patients had progressive ataxia and dementia. Neuronal loss was observed in cerebellar pathways and the hippocampus; surviving hippocampal neurons contained ubiquitin-immunoreactive intranuclear inclusions. Defects were detected at the hypothalamic and pituitary levels of the reproductive endocrine axis.
 CONCLUSIONS The syndrome of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, ataxia, and dementia can be caused by inactivating mutations in RNF216 or by the combination of mutations in RNF216 and OTUD4. These findings link disordered ubiquitination to neurodegeneration and reproductive dysfunction and highlight the power of whole-exome sequencing in combination with functional studies to unveil genetic interactions that cause disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

title: Incidence of skin cancer after renal transplantation in The Netherlands.

text: The incidence of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) was analyzed separately in all 764 patients who received a renal allograft between 1966 and 1988 at the Leiden University Hospital. The mean follow-up period was 8.7 posttransplant years (range 1-21 years). During this time period 176 skin cancers were diagnosed in 47 patients. The overall risk to develop a first tumor increased from 10% after 10 years to 40% after 20 years of graft survival. The overall incidence of SCC was 250 times higher and that of BCC 10 times higher when compared with the general Dutch population. Moreover the localization of SCCs and BCCs differed considerably. Solar radiation is thought to be an important risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, the occurrence of skin cancer in long-term graft survivors forms also a major problem in a country with a higher geographical latitude and a moderate amount of sun-exposure, such as the Netherlands.

title: Short term persistence of human papillomavirus and risk of cervical precancer and cancer: population based cohort study

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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia II or worse (grade II+) or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III+ after short term persistence of prevalently detected carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV).
 DESIGN Population based cohort study.
 SETTING Guanacaste, Costa Rica.
 PARTICIPANTS 2282 sexually active women actively followed after enrolment.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary end points: three year and five year cumulative incidence of histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ (n=70). Cervical specimens collected at each visit tested for more than 40 HPV genotypes. HPV 16, 18, 26, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, 68, 73, and 82 were considered the primary carcinogenic genotypes.
 RESULTS Women who tested positive for a carcinogenic HPV at enrolment and after about one year (9-21 months) (positive/positive) had a three year cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ of 17.0% (95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.0%). Those who tested negative/positive (3.4%, 0.1% to 6.8%), positive/negative (1.2%, -0.2% to 2.5%), and negative/negative (0.5%, 0.1% to 0.9%) were at a significantly lower risk. There was little difference in the cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ between testing positive twice for any carcinogenic HPV genotype (same genotype or different genotypes) v testing positive twice for the same carcinogenic genotype (17.0% v 21.3%, respectively). Short term persistence of HPV 16 strongly predicted cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+, with a three year cumulative incidence of 40.8% (26.4% to 55.1%). Similar patterns were observed for the five year cumulative incidence of grade II+ and for three year and five year cumulative incidence of grade III+.
 CONCLUSIONS Short term persistence of a prevalently detected carcinogenic HPV infection, especially HPV 16, strongly predicts a subsequent diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia II+ over the next few years.