query: Sepsis related mortality has remained stable between 2009-2014.

title: Incidence and Trends of Sepsis in US Hospitals Using Clinical vs Claims Data, 2009-2014

text: Importance Estimates from claims-based analyses suggest that the incidence of sepsis is increasing and mortality rates from sepsis are decreasing. However, estimates from claims data may lack clinical fidelity and can be affected by changing diagnosis and coding practices over time. Objective To estimate the US national incidence of sepsis and trends using detailed clinical data from the electronic health record (EHR) systems of diverse hospitals. Design, Setting, and Population Retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to 409 academic, community, and federal hospitals from 2009-2014. Exposures Sepsis was identified using clinical indicators of presumed infection and concurrent acute organ dysfunction, adapting Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) criteria for objective and consistent EHR-based surveillance. Main Outcomes and Measures Sepsis incidence, outcomes, and trends from 2009-2014 were calculated using regression models and compared with claims-based estimates using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis or septic shock. Case-finding criteria were validated against Sepsis-3 criteria using medical record reviews. Results A total of 173 690 sepsis cases (mean age, 66.5 [SD, 15.5] y; 77 660 [42.4%] women) were identified using clinical criteria among 2 901 019 adults admitted to study hospitals in 2014 (6.0% incidence). Of these, 26 061 (15.0%) died in the hospital and 10 731 (6.2%) were discharged to hospice. From 2009-2014, sepsis incidence using clinical criteria was stable (+0.6% relative change/y [95% CI, −2.3% to 3.5%], P = .67) whereas incidence per claims increased (+10.3%/y [95% CI, 7.2% to 13.3%], P < .001). In-hospital mortality using clinical criteria declined (−3.3%/y [95% CI, −5.6% to −1.0%], P = .004), but there was no significant change in the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice (−1.3%/y [95% CI, −3.2% to 0.6%], P = .19). In contrast, mortality using claims declined significantly (−7.0%/y [95% CI, −8.8% to −5.2%], P < .001), as did death or discharge to hospice (−4.5%/y [95% CI, −6.1% to −2.8%], P < .001). Clinical criteria were more sensitive in identifying sepsis than claims (69.7% [95% CI, 52.9% to 92.0%] vs 32.3% [95% CI, 24.4% to 43.0%], P < .001), with comparable positive predictive value (70.4% [95% CI, 64.0% to 76.8%] vs 75.2% [95% CI, 69.8% to 80.6%], P = .23). Conclusions and Relevance In clinical data from 409 hospitals, sepsis was present in 6% of adult hospitalizations, and in contrast to claims-based analyses, neither the incidence of sepsis nor the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice changed significantly between 2009-2014. The findings also suggest that EHR-based clinical data provide more objective estimates than claims-based data for sepsis surveillance.

title: Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities

text:
BACKGROUND Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).
 CONCLUSIONS Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.

title: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Quick Sequential Organ Function Assessment, and Organ Dysfunction: Insights From a Prospective Database of ED Patients With Infection

text:
BACKGROUND: A proposed revision of sepsis definitions has abandoned the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), defined organ dysfunction as an increase in total Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) score of ≥ 2, and conceived “qSOFA” (quick SOFA) as a bedside indicator of organ dysfunction. We aimed to (1) determine the prognostic impact of SIRS, (2) compare the diagnostic accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA for organ dysfunction, and (3) compare standard (Sepsis‐2) and revised (Sepsis‐3) definitions for organ dysfunction in ED patients with infection.
 METHODS: Consecutive ED patients admitted with presumed infection were prospectively enrolled over 3 years. Sufficient observational data were collected to calculate SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA, comorbidity, and mortality.
 RESULTS: We enrolled 8,871 patients, with SIRS present in 4,176 (47.1%). SIRS was associated with increased risk of organ dysfunction (relative risk [RR] 3.5) and mortality in patients without organ dysfunction (OR 3.2). SIRS and qSOFA showed similar discrimination for organ dysfunction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.72 vs 0.73). qSOFA was specific but poorly sensitive for organ dysfunction (96.1% and 29.7%, respectively). Mortality for patients with organ dysfunction was similar for Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3 (12.5% and 11.4%, respectively), although 29% of patients with Sepsis‐3 organ dysfunction did not meet Sepsis‐2 criteria. Increasing numbers of Sepsis‐2 organ system dysfunctions were associated with greater mortality.
 CONCLUSIONS: SIRS was associated with organ dysfunction and mortality, and abandoning the concept appears premature. A qSOFA score ≥ 2 showed high specificity, but poor sensitivity may limit utility as a bedside screening method. Although mortality for organ dysfunction was comparable between Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3, more prognostic and clinical information is conveyed using Sepsis‐2 regarding number and type of organ dysfunctions. The SOFA score may require recalibration.

title: Epidemiology of sepsis and septic shock in critical care units: comparison between sepsis-2 and sepsis-3 populations using a national critical care database

text: Background New sepsis and septic shock definitions could change the epidemiology of sepsis because of differences in criteria. We therefore compared the sepsis populations identified by the old and new definitions.    Methods We used a high-quality, national, intensive care unit (ICU) database of 654 918 consecutive admissions to 189 adult ICUs in England, from January 2011 to December 2015. Primary outcome was acute hospital mortality. We compared old (Sepsis-2) and new (Sepsis-3) incidence, outcomes, trends in outcomes, and predictive validity of sepsis and septic shock populations.    Results From among 197 724 Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and 197 142 Sepsis-3 sepsis cases, we identified 153 257 Sepsis-2 septic shock and 39 262 Sepsis-3 septic shock cases. The extrapolated population incidence of Sepsis-3 sepsis and Sepsis-3 septic shock was 101.8 and 19.3 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, in 2015. Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and Sepsis-3 sepsis had similar incidence, similar mortality and showed significant risk-adjusted improvements in mortality over time. Sepsis-3 septic shock had a much higher Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, greater mortality and no risk-adjusted trends in mortality improvement compared with Sepsis-2 septic shock. ICU admissions identified either as Sepsis-3 sepsis or septic shock and as Sepsis-2 severe sepsis or septic shock had significantly greater risk-adjusted odds of death compared with non-sepsis admissions (P<0.001). The predictive validity was greatest for Sepsis-3 septic shock.    Conclusions In an ICU database, compared with Sepsis-2, Sepsis-3 identifies a similar sepsis population with 92% overlap and much smaller septic shock population with improved predictive validity.

title: The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3).

text:
IMPORTANCE Definitions of sepsis and septic shock were last revised in 2001. Considerable advances have since been made into the pathobiology (changes in organ function, morphology, cell biology, biochemistry, immunology, and circulation), management, and epidemiology of sepsis, suggesting the need for reexamination.
 OBJECTIVE To evaluate and, as needed, update definitions for sepsis and septic shock.    PROCESS A task force (n = 19) with expertise in sepsis pathobiology, clinical trials, and epidemiology was convened by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Definitions and clinical criteria were generated through meetings, Delphi processes, analysis of electronic health record databases, and voting, followed by circulation to international professional societies, requesting peer review and endorsement (by 31 societies listed in the Acknowledgment).    KEY FINDINGS FROM EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS Limitations of previous definitions included an excessive focus on inflammation, the misleading model that sepsis follows a continuum through severe sepsis to shock, and inadequate specificity and sensitivity of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. Multiple definitions and terminologies are currently in use for sepsis, septic shock, and organ dysfunction, leading to discrepancies in reported incidence and observed mortality. The task force concluded the term severe sepsis was redundant.    RECOMMENDATIONS Sepsis should be defined as life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. For clinical operationalization, organ dysfunction can be represented by an increase in the Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 points or more, which is associated with an in-hospital mortality greater than 10%. Septic shock should be defined as a subset of sepsis in which particularly profound circulatory, cellular, and metabolic abnormalities are associated with a greater risk of mortality than with sepsis alone. Patients with septic shock can be clinically identified by a vasopressor requirement to maintain a mean arterial pressure of 65 mm Hg or greater and serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L (>18 mg/dL) in the absence of hypovolemia. This combination is associated with hospital mortality rates greater than 40%. In out-of-hospital, emergency department, or general hospital ward settings, adult patients with suspected infection can be rapidly identified as being more likely to have poor outcomes typical of sepsis if they have at least 2 of the following clinical criteria that together constitute a new bedside clinical score termed quickSOFA (qSOFA): respiratory rate of 22/min or greater, altered mentation, or systolic blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or less.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These updated definitions and clinical criteria should replace previous definitions, offer greater consistency for epidemiologic studies and clinical trials, and facilitate earlier recognition and more timely management of patients with sepsis or at risk of developing sepsis.

title: A myeloid hypoxia-inducible factor 1α-Krüppel-like factor 2 pathway regulates gram-positive endotoxin-mediated sepsis.

text: Although gram-positive infections account for the majority of cases of sepsis, the molecular mechanisms underlying their effects remains poorly understood. We investigated how cell wall components of gram-positive bacteria contribute to the development of sepsis. Experimental observations derived from cultured primary macrophages and the cell line indicate that gram-positive bacterial endotoxins induce hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) mRNA and protein expression. Inoculation of live or heat-inactivated gram-positive bacteria with macrophages induced HIF-1 transcriptional activity in macrophages. Concordant with these results, myeloid deficiency of HIF-1α attenuated gram-positive bacterial endotoxin-induced cellular motility and proinflammatory gene expression in macrophages. Conversely, gram-positive bacteria and their endotoxins reduced expression of the myeloid anti-inflammatory transcription factor Krüppel-like transcription factor 2 (KLF2). Sustained expression of KLF2 reduced and deficiency of KLF2 enhanced gram-positive endotoxins induced HIF-1α mRNA and protein expression in macrophages. More importantly, KLF2 attenuated gram-positive endotoxins induced cellular motility and proinflammatory gene expression in myeloid cells. Consistent with these results, mice deficient in myeloid HIF-1α were protected from gram-positive endotoxin-induced sepsis mortality and clinical symptomatology. By contrast, myeloid KLF2-deficient mice were susceptible to gram-positive sepsis induced mortality and clinical symptoms. Collectively, these observations identify HIF-1α and KLF2 as critical regulators of gram-positive endotoxin-mediated sepsis.

title: Prognostic Accuracy of the SOFA Score, SIRS Criteria, and qSOFA Score for In-Hospital Mortality Among Adults With Suspected Infection Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

text: Importance The Sepsis-3 Criteria emphasized the value of a change of 2 or more points in the Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, introduced quick SOFA (qSOFA), and removed the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria from the sepsis definition. Objective Externally validate and assess the discriminatory capacities of an increase in SOFA score by 2 or more points, 2 or more SIRS criteria, or a qSOFA score of 2 or more points for outcomes among patients who are critically ill with suspected infection. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective cohort analysis of 184 875 patients with an infection-related primary admission diagnosis in 182 Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs) from 2000 through 2015. Exposures SOFA, qSOFA, and SIRS criteria applied to data collected within 24 hours of ICU admission. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In-hospital mortality or ICU length of stay (LOS) of 3 days or more was a composite secondary outcome. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Adjusted analyses were performed using a model of baseline risk determined using variables independent of the scoring systems. Results Among 184 875 patients (mean age, 62.9 years [SD, 17.4]; women, 82 540 [44.6%]; most common diagnosis bacterial pneumonia, 32 634 [17.7%]), a total of 34 578 patients (18.7%) died in the hospital, and 102 976 patients (55.7%) died or experienced an ICU LOS of 3 days or more. SOFA score increased by 2 or more points in 90.1%; 86.7% manifested 2 or more SIRS criteria, and 54.4% had a qSOFA score of 2 or more points. SOFA demonstrated significantly greater discrimination for in-hospital mortality (crude AUROC, 0.753 [99% CI, 0.750-0.757]) than SIRS criteria (crude AUROC, 0.589 [99% CI, 0.585-0.593]) or qSOFA (crude AUROC, 0.607 [99% CI, 0.603-0.611]). Incremental improvements were 0.164 (99% CI, 0.159-0.169) for SOFA vs SIRS criteria and 0.146 (99% CI, 0.142-0.151) for SOFA vs qSOFA (P <.001). SOFA (AUROC, 0.736 [99% CI, 0.733-0.739]) outperformed the other scores for the secondary end point (SIRS criteria: AUROC, 0.609 [99% CI, 0.606-0.612]; qSOFA: AUROC, 0.606 [99% CI, 0.602-0.609]). Incremental improvements were 0.127 (99% CI, 0.123-0.131) for SOFA vs SIRS criteria and 0.131 (99% CI, 0.127-0.134) for SOFA vs qSOFA (P <.001). Findings were consistent for both outcomes in multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance Among adults with suspected infection admitted to an ICU, an increase in SOFA score of 2 or more had greater prognostic accuracy for in-hospital mortality than SIRS criteria or the qSOFA score. These findings suggest that SIRS criteria and qSOFA may have limited utility for predicting mortality in an ICU setting.

title: Predictive performance of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score as a screening tool for sepsis, mortality, and intensive care unit admission in patients with febrile neutropenia

text: In Sepsis-3, the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score was developed as criteria to use for recognizing patients who may have poor outcomes. This study was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of the qSOFA score as a screening tool for sepsis, mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients with febrile neutropenia (FN). We also tried to compare its performance with that of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria and Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score for FN. We used a prospectively collected adult FN data registry. The qSOFA and SIRS scores were calculated retrospectively using the preexisting data. The primary outcome was the development of sepsis. The secondary outcomes were ICU admission and 28-day mortality. Of the 615 patients, 100 developed sepsis, 20 died, and 38 were admitted to ICUs. In multivariate analysis, qSOFA was an independent factor predicting sepsis and ICU admission. However, compared to the MASCC score, the area under the receiver operating curve of qSOFA was lower. qSOFA showed a low sensitivity (0.14, 0.2, and 0.23) but high specificity (0.98, 0.97, and 0.97) in predicting sepsis, 28-day mortality, and ICU admission. Performance of the qSOFA score was inferior to that of the MASCC score. The preexisting risk stratification tool is more useful for predicting outcomes in patients with FN.

title: Vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality in Adventist Health Study 2.

text:
IMPORTANCE Some evidence suggests vegetarian dietary patterns may be associated with reduced mortality, but the relationship is not well established.
 OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality.
 DESIGN Prospective cohort study; mortality analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression, controlling for important demographic and lifestyle confounders.
 SETTING Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2), a large North American cohort.
 PARTICIPANTS A total of 96,469 Seventh-day Adventist men and women recruited between 2002 and 2007, from which an analytic sample of 73,308 participants remained after exclusions.    EXPOSURES Diet was assessed at baseline by a quantitative food frequency questionnaire and categorized into 5 dietary patterns: nonvegetarian, semi-vegetarian, pesco-vegetarian, lacto-ovo-vegetarian, and vegan.
 MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE The relationship between vegetarian dietary patterns and all-cause and cause-specific mortality; deaths through 2009 were identified from the National Death Index.
 RESULTS There were 2570 deaths among 73,308 participants during a mean follow-up time of 5.79 years. The mortality rate was 6.05 (95% CI, 5.82-6.29) deaths per 1000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality in all vegetarians combined vs nonvegetarians was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97). The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality in vegans was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73-1.01); in lacto-ovo-vegetarians, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00); in pesco-vegetarians, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.94); and in semi-vegetarians, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.75-1.13) compared with nonvegetarians. Significant associations with vegetarian diets were detected for cardiovascular mortality, noncardiovascular noncancer mortality, renal mortality, and endocrine mortality. Associations in men were larger and more often significant than were those in women.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Vegetarian diets are associated with lower all-cause mortality and with some reductions in cause-specific mortality. Results appeared to be more robust in males. These favorable associations should be considered carefully by those offering dietary guidance.

title: Geovisual analytics to enhance spatial scan statistic interpretation: an analysis of U.S. cervical cancer mortality

text:
BACKGROUND Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and its software implementation - SaTScan - are widely used for detecting and evaluating geographic clusters. However, two issues make using the method and interpreting its results non-trivial: (1) the method lacks cartographic support for understanding the clusters in geographic context and (2) results from the method are sensitive to parameter choices related to cluster scaling (abbreviated as scaling parameters), but the system provides no direct support for making these choices. We employ both established and novel geovisual analytics methods to address these issues and to enhance the interpretation of SaTScan results. We demonstrate our geovisual analytics approach in a case study analysis of cervical cancer mortality in the U.S.   RESULTS We address the first issue by providing an interactive visual interface to support the interpretation of SaTScan results. Our research to address the second issue prompted a broader discussion about the sensitivity of SaTScan results to parameter choices. Sensitivity has two components: (1) the method can identify clusters that, while being statistically significant, have heterogeneous contents comprised of both high-risk and low-risk locations and (2) the method can identify clusters that are unstable in location and size as the spatial scan scaling parameter is varied. To investigate cluster result stability, we conducted multiple SaTScan runs with systematically selected parameters. The results, when scanning a large spatial dataset (e.g., U.S. data aggregated by county), demonstrate that no single spatial scan scaling value is known to be optimal to identify clusters that exist at different scales; instead, multiple scans that vary the parameters are necessary. We introduce a novel method of measuring and visualizing reliability that facilitates identification of homogeneous clusters that are stable across analysis scales. Finally, we propose a logical approach to proceed through the analysis of SaTScan results.
 CONCLUSION The geovisual analytics approach described in this manuscript facilitates the interpretation of spatial cluster detection methods by providing cartographic representation of SaTScan results and by providing visualization methods and tools that support selection of SaTScan parameters. Our methods distinguish between heterogeneous and homogeneous clusters and assess the stability of clusters across analytic scales.
 METHOD We analyzed the cervical cancer mortality data for the United States aggregated by county between 2000 and 2004. We ran SaTScan on the dataset fifty times with different parameter choices. Our geovisual analytics approach couples SaTScan with our visual analytic platform, allowing users to interactively explore and compare SaTScan results produced by different parameter choices. The Standardized Mortality Ratio and reliability scores are visualized for all the counties to identify stable, homogeneous clusters. We evaluated our analysis result by comparing it to that produced by other independent techniques including the Empirical Bayes Smoothing and Kafadar spatial smoother methods. The geovisual analytics approach introduced here is developed and implemented in our Java-based Visual Inquiry Toolkit.

title: Assessment of hemodynamic efficacy and safety of 6% hydroxyethylstarch 130/0.4 vs. 0.9% NaCl fluid replacement in patients with severe sepsis: The CRYSTMAS study

text: Inadequate initial treatment and delayed hemodynamic stabilization (HDS) may be associated with increased risk of death in severe sepsis patients. In order to compare the hemodynamic efficacy and safety of 6% HES 130/0.4 and NaCl 0.9% for HDS in patients with severe sepsis, we designed a prospective, multicenter, active-controlled, double-blind, randomized study in intensive care units. 174 out of 196 patients reached HDS (88 and 86 patients for HES and NaCl, respectively). Significantly less HES was used to reach HDS vs. NaCl (1,379 ±886 ml in the HES group and 1,709 ±1,164 ml in the NaCl group (mean difference = -331± 1,033, 95% CI -640 to -21, P = 0.0185). Time to reach HDS was 11.8 10.1 hours vs. 14.3 ±11.1 hours for HES and NaCl, respectively. Total quantity of study drug infused over four consecutive days, ICU and hospital LOS, and area under the curve of SOFA score were comparable. Acute renal failure occurred in 24 (24.5%) and 19 (20%) patients for HES and NaCl, respectively (P = 0.454). There was no difference between AKIN and RIFLE criteria among groups and no difference in mortality, coagulation, or pruritus up to 90 days after treatment initiation. Significantly less volume was required to achieve HDS for HES vs. NaCl in the initial phase of fluid resuscitation in severe sepsis patients without any difference for adverse events in both groups. NCT00464204

title: Comparative determinants of 4-year cardiovascular event rates in stable outpatients at risk of or with atherothrombosis.

text:
CONTEXT Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear.
 OBJECTIVE To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke.
 RESULTS A total of 45,227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21,890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15,264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.57-1.85; P < .001), and polyvascular disease (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.78-2.24; P < .001) each were associated with a significantly higher risk of the primary end point.
 CONCLUSION Clinical descriptors can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients within the broad range of risk for outpatients with atherothrombosis.

title: Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2016

text: Objective: To provide an update to “Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012. ” Design: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. Methods: The panel consisted of five sections: hemodynamics, infection, adjunctive therapies, metabolic, and ventilation. Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low, and to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or best practice statement when applicable. Results: The Surviving Sepsis Guideline panel provided 93 statements on early management and resuscitation of patients with sepsis or septic shock. Overall, 32 were strong recommendations, 39 were weak recommendations, and 18 were best-practice statements. No recommendation was provided for four questions. Conclusions: Substantial agreement exists among a large cohort of international experts regarding many strong recommendations for the best care of patients with sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for these critically ill patients with high mortality.

title: Bariatric Surgery in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Study of Weight Loss and Clinical Outcomes in Routine Clinical Care.

text:
BACKGROUND Bariatric surgery is becoming a more widespread treatment for obesity. Comprehensive evidence of the long-term effects of contemporary surgery on a broad range of clinical outcomes in large populations treated in routine clinical practice is lacking. The objective of this study was to measure the association between bariatric surgery, weight, body mass index, and obesity-related co-morbidities.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS This was an observational retrospective cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All 3,882 patients registered in the database and with bariatric surgery on or before 31 December 2014 were included and matched by propensity score to 3,882 obese patients without surgery. The main outcome measures were change in weight and body mass index over 4 y; incident diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, fractures, obstructive sleep apnoea, and cancer; mortality; and resolution of hypertension and T2DM. Weight measures were available for 3,847 patients between 1 and 4 mo, 2,884 patients between 5 and 12 mo, and 2,258 patients between 13 and 48 mo post-procedure. Bariatric surgery patients exhibited rapid weight loss for the first four postoperative months, at a rate of 4.98 kg/mo (95% CI 4.88-5.08). Slower weight loss was sustained to the end of 4 y. Gastric bypass (6.56 kg/mo) and sleeve gastrectomy (6.29 kg/mo) were associated with greater initial weight reduction than gastric banding (2.77 kg/mo). Protective hazard ratios (HRs) were detected for bariatric surgery for incident T2DM, 0.68 (95% CI 0.55-0.83); hypertension, 0.35 (95% CI 0.27-0.45); angina, 0.59 (95% CI 0.40-0.87);MI, 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.74); and obstructive sleep apnoea, 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.87). Strong associations were found between bariatric surgery and the resolution of T2DM, with a HR of 9.29 (95% CI 6.84-12.62), and between bariatric surgery and the resolution of hypertension, with a HR of 5.64 (95% CI 2.65-11.99). No association was detected between bariatric surgery and fractures, cancer, or stroke. Effect estimates for mortality found no protective association with bariatric surgery overall, with a HR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.66-1.43). The data used were recorded for the management of patients in primary care and may be subject to inaccuracy, which would tend to lead to underestimates of true relative effect sizes.
 CONCLUSIONS Bariatric surgery as delivered in the UK healthcare system is associated with dramatic weight loss, sustained at least 4 y after surgery. This weight loss is accompanied by substantial improvements in pre-existing T2DM and hypertension, as well as a reduced risk of incident T2DM, hypertension, angina, MI, and obstructive sleep apnoea. Widening the availability of bariatric surgery could lead to substantial health benefits for many people who are morbidly obese.

title: Staphylococcus aureus infections.

text: Micrococcus, which, when limited in its extent and activity, causes acute suppurative inflammation (phlegmon), produces, when more extensive and intense in its action on the human system, the most virulent forms of septicaemia and pyaemia.1 In an elegant series of clinical observations and laboratory studies published in 1880 and 1882, Ogston described staphylococcal disease and its role in sepsis and abscess formation.1,2 More than 100 years later, Staphylococcus aureus remains a versatile and dangerous pathogen in humans. The frequencies of both community-acquired and hospital-acquired staphylococcal infections have increased steadily, with little change in overall mortality. Treatment of these infections . . .

title: Endotoxin tolerance: new mechanisms, molecules and clinical significance.

text: Prior exposure of innate immune cells like monocytes/macrophages to minute amounts of endotoxin cause them to become refractory to subsequent endotoxin challenge, a phenomenon called "endotoxin tolerance". Clinically, this state is associated with monocytes/macrophages in sepsis patients where they contribute to "immunosuppression" and mortality. The molecular mechanisms underlying endotoxin tolerance remain elusive. The recent appreciation of inflammation as a self-regulating process, the relative contribution of MyD88 versus TRIF signaling pathways in inducing activation or tolerance, plasticity of NF-kappaB function and the role of chromatin modification and microRNAs in LPS-induced gene reprogramming urges a re-evaluation of endotoxin tolerance. This review integrates these new findings into an up-to-date account of endotoxin tolerance, its molecular basis and clinical implications in different pathologies.

title: The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

text:
IMPORTANCE Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy.
 OBJECTIVES To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
 DESIGN We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages.
 RESULTS US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

title: Association Between ADHD and Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

text:
OBJECTIVE Impulsivity and inattention related to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may increase food intake and, consequently, weight gain. However, findings on the association between obesity/overweight and ADHD are mixed. The authors conducted a meta-analysis to estimate this association.
 METHOD A broad range of databases was searched through Aug. 31, 2014. Unpublished studies were also obtained. Study quality was rated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random-effects models were used.
 RESULTS Forty-two studies that included a total of 728,136 individuals (48,161 ADHD subjects; 679,975 comparison subjects) were retained. A significant association between obesity and ADHD was found for both children (odds ratio=1.20, 95% CI=1.05-1.37) and adults (odds ratio=1.55, 95% CI=1.32-1.81). The pooled prevalence of obesity was increased by about 70% in adults with ADHD (28.2%, 95% CI=22.8-34.4) compared with those without ADHD (16.4%, 95% CI=13.4-19.9), and by about 40% in children with ADHD (10.3%, 95% CI=7.9-13.3) compared with those without ADHD (7.4%, 95% CI=5.4-10.1). The significant association between ADHD and obesity remained when limited to studies 1) reporting odds ratios adjusted for possible confounding factors; 2) diagnosing ADHD by direct interview; and 3) using directly measured height and weight. Gender, study setting, study country, and study quality did not moderate the association between obesity and ADHD. ADHD was also significantly associated with overweight. Individuals medicated for ADHD were not at higher risk of obesity.
 CONCLUSIONS This study provides meta-analytic evidence for a significant association between ADHD and obesity/overweight. Further research should address possible underlying mechanisms and the long-term effects of ADHD treatments on weight in individuals with both ADHD and obesity.

title: Tuberculosis mortality in England and Wales during 1982-1992: its association with poverty, ethnicity and AIDS.

text: This paper seeks to establish the strength of association between contemporary tuberculosis (TB) in England and Wales and several potential aetiological factors. It presents an ecological analysis of standardised annual TB mortality rates for the 403 local authority districts between 1982 and 1992, disaggregated by age and sex. Social, demographic and ethnicity measures from the 1981 and 1991 censuses and standardised annual AIDS-related mortality rates for young men are used to calculate Poisson regression models. A strong association was found between all TB mortality groups and overcrowding at the household level. For women, no other measures improved the explanatory power of the models. In multiple regressions, both poverty and AIDS-related mortality explained additional variation in the model for younger men. The link between ethnicity and tuberculosis notifications was not reflected in this analysis of mortality. For all groups no evidence of a positive relationship with ethnicity was found, once overcrowding had been accounted for. The significance of household as opposed to district level crowding suggests that prolonged contact is required for disease transmission. Regression analysis indicates that it is the overcrowding and poverty among ethnic populations that is significant for their tuberculosis mortality. The fact that the relationship between AIDS and TB is confined to the group most typical of AIDS patients provides evidence that AIDS has little influence on the level of tuberculosis mortality in the wider population. Explanations for the observed relationship include preferential certification, migration for treatment and shortcomings in health care provision.

title: Angiopoietin-2 is increased in sepsis and inversely associated with nitric oxide-dependent microvascular reactivity

text:
INTRODUCTION Angiopoietin-2 (ang-2), an angiogenic peptide released by endothelial cell Weibel-Palade bodies (WPBs), increases endothelial activation and vascular permeability. Ang-2 is raised in severe sepsis but the mechanisms underlying this are not known. Nitric oxide (NO) inhibits WPB exocytosis, and bioavailability of endothelial NO is decreased in sepsis. We hypothesized that endothelial NO bioavailability would be inversely correlated with ang-2 concentrations in sepsis.
 METHODS Plasma ang-2, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and endothelial-active cytokines were assessed in 83 patients with early sepsis and 41 hospital controls, and related to reactive hyperaemia-peripheral arterial tonometry, RH-PAT, a measure of endothelial NO bioavailability.
 RESULTS Plasma Ang-2 was elevated in sepsis (median [interquartile range (IQR)], ng/ml: severe sepsis 12.4 [8.5-33.4], sepsis without organ failure 6.1 [5.0-10.4], controls 2.7 [2.2-3.6], P < 0.0001). It correlated inversely with RH-PAT (r = -0.38, P < 0.0001) and positively with IL-6 (r = 0.57, P < 0.0001) and degree of organ failure (sequential organ function assessment score) (r = 0.58, P < 0.0001). The correlation of ang-2 with RH-PAT persisted after controlling for sepsis severity. In a longitudinal mixed-effects model, recovery of RH-PAT over time was associated with decline in ang-2.
 CONCLUSIONS Ang-2 is elevated in proportion to sepsis severity, and inversely correlated with NO-dependent microvascular reactivity. Impaired endothelial NO bioavailability may contribute to increased endothelial cell release of ang-2, endothelial activation and capillary leak. Agents that increase endothelial NO bioavailability or inhibit WPB exocytosis and/or Ang-2 activity may have therapeutic potential in sepsis.


query: Sepsis related mortality has risen from 2009 to 2014.

title: Incidence and Trends of Sepsis in US Hospitals Using Clinical vs Claims Data, 2009-2014

text: Importance Estimates from claims-based analyses suggest that the incidence of sepsis is increasing and mortality rates from sepsis are decreasing. However, estimates from claims data may lack clinical fidelity and can be affected by changing diagnosis and coding practices over time. Objective To estimate the US national incidence of sepsis and trends using detailed clinical data from the electronic health record (EHR) systems of diverse hospitals. Design, Setting, and Population Retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to 409 academic, community, and federal hospitals from 2009-2014. Exposures Sepsis was identified using clinical indicators of presumed infection and concurrent acute organ dysfunction, adapting Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) criteria for objective and consistent EHR-based surveillance. Main Outcomes and Measures Sepsis incidence, outcomes, and trends from 2009-2014 were calculated using regression models and compared with claims-based estimates using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis or septic shock. Case-finding criteria were validated against Sepsis-3 criteria using medical record reviews. Results A total of 173 690 sepsis cases (mean age, 66.5 [SD, 15.5] y; 77 660 [42.4%] women) were identified using clinical criteria among 2 901 019 adults admitted to study hospitals in 2014 (6.0% incidence). Of these, 26 061 (15.0%) died in the hospital and 10 731 (6.2%) were discharged to hospice. From 2009-2014, sepsis incidence using clinical criteria was stable (+0.6% relative change/y [95% CI, −2.3% to 3.5%], P = .67) whereas incidence per claims increased (+10.3%/y [95% CI, 7.2% to 13.3%], P < .001). In-hospital mortality using clinical criteria declined (−3.3%/y [95% CI, −5.6% to −1.0%], P = .004), but there was no significant change in the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice (−1.3%/y [95% CI, −3.2% to 0.6%], P = .19). In contrast, mortality using claims declined significantly (−7.0%/y [95% CI, −8.8% to −5.2%], P < .001), as did death or discharge to hospice (−4.5%/y [95% CI, −6.1% to −2.8%], P < .001). Clinical criteria were more sensitive in identifying sepsis than claims (69.7% [95% CI, 52.9% to 92.0%] vs 32.3% [95% CI, 24.4% to 43.0%], P < .001), with comparable positive predictive value (70.4% [95% CI, 64.0% to 76.8%] vs 75.2% [95% CI, 69.8% to 80.6%], P = .23). Conclusions and Relevance In clinical data from 409 hospitals, sepsis was present in 6% of adult hospitalizations, and in contrast to claims-based analyses, neither the incidence of sepsis nor the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice changed significantly between 2009-2014. The findings also suggest that EHR-based clinical data provide more objective estimates than claims-based data for sepsis surveillance.

title: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Quick Sequential Organ Function Assessment, and Organ Dysfunction: Insights From a Prospective Database of ED Patients With Infection

text:
BACKGROUND: A proposed revision of sepsis definitions has abandoned the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), defined organ dysfunction as an increase in total Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) score of ≥ 2, and conceived “qSOFA” (quick SOFA) as a bedside indicator of organ dysfunction. We aimed to (1) determine the prognostic impact of SIRS, (2) compare the diagnostic accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA for organ dysfunction, and (3) compare standard (Sepsis‐2) and revised (Sepsis‐3) definitions for organ dysfunction in ED patients with infection.
 METHODS: Consecutive ED patients admitted with presumed infection were prospectively enrolled over 3 years. Sufficient observational data were collected to calculate SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA, comorbidity, and mortality.
 RESULTS: We enrolled 8,871 patients, with SIRS present in 4,176 (47.1%). SIRS was associated with increased risk of organ dysfunction (relative risk [RR] 3.5) and mortality in patients without organ dysfunction (OR 3.2). SIRS and qSOFA showed similar discrimination for organ dysfunction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.72 vs 0.73). qSOFA was specific but poorly sensitive for organ dysfunction (96.1% and 29.7%, respectively). Mortality for patients with organ dysfunction was similar for Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3 (12.5% and 11.4%, respectively), although 29% of patients with Sepsis‐3 organ dysfunction did not meet Sepsis‐2 criteria. Increasing numbers of Sepsis‐2 organ system dysfunctions were associated with greater mortality.
 CONCLUSIONS: SIRS was associated with organ dysfunction and mortality, and abandoning the concept appears premature. A qSOFA score ≥ 2 showed high specificity, but poor sensitivity may limit utility as a bedside screening method. Although mortality for organ dysfunction was comparable between Sepsis‐2 and Sepsis‐3, more prognostic and clinical information is conveyed using Sepsis‐2 regarding number and type of organ dysfunctions. The SOFA score may require recalibration.

title: Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities

text:
BACKGROUND Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).
 CONCLUSIONS Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.

text: Background New sepsis and septic shock definitions could change the epidemiology of sepsis because of differences in criteria. We therefore compared the sepsis populations identified by the old and new definitions.    Methods We used a high-quality, national, intensive care unit (ICU) database of 654 918 consecutive admissions to 189 adult ICUs in England, from January 2011 to December 2015. Primary outcome was acute hospital mortality. We compared old (Sepsis-2) and new (Sepsis-3) incidence, outcomes, trends in outcomes, and predictive validity of sepsis and septic shock populations.    Results From among 197 724 Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and 197 142 Sepsis-3 sepsis cases, we identified 153 257 Sepsis-2 septic shock and 39 262 Sepsis-3 septic shock cases. The extrapolated population incidence of Sepsis-3 sepsis and Sepsis-3 septic shock was 101.8 and 19.3 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, in 2015. Sepsis-2 severe sepsis and Sepsis-3 sepsis had similar incidence, similar mortality and showed significant risk-adjusted improvements in mortality over time. Sepsis-3 septic shock had a much higher Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, greater mortality and no risk-adjusted trends in mortality improvement compared with Sepsis-2 septic shock. ICU admissions identified either as Sepsis-3 sepsis or septic shock and as Sepsis-2 severe sepsis or septic shock had significantly greater risk-adjusted odds of death compared with non-sepsis admissions (P<0.001). The predictive validity was greatest for Sepsis-3 septic shock.    Conclusions In an ICU database, compared with Sepsis-2, Sepsis-3 identifies a similar sepsis population with 92% overlap and much smaller septic shock population with improved predictive validity.

title: Circulating Mitochondrial DNA in Patients in the ICU as a Marker of Mortality: Derivation and Validation

text:
BACKGROUND Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a critical activator of inflammation and the innate immune system. However, mtDNA level has not been tested for its role as a biomarker in the intensive care unit (ICU). We hypothesized that circulating cell-free mtDNA levels would be associated with mortality and improve risk prediction in ICU patients.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Analyses of mtDNA levels were performed on blood samples obtained from two prospective observational cohort studies of ICU patients (the Brigham and Women's Hospital Registry of Critical Illness [BWH RoCI, n = 200] and Molecular Epidemiology of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome [ME ARDS, n = 243]). mtDNA levels in plasma were assessed by measuring the copy number of the NADH dehydrogenase 1 gene using quantitative real-time PCR. Medical ICU patients with an elevated mtDNA level (≥3,200 copies/µl plasma) had increased odds of dying within 28 d of ICU admission in both the BWH RoCI (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% CI 3.6-15.8, p = 1×10(-7)) and ME ARDS (OR 8.4, 95% CI 2.9-24.2, p = 9×10(-5)) cohorts, while no evidence for association was noted in non-medical ICU patients. The addition of an elevated mtDNA level improved the net reclassification index (NRI) of 28-d mortality among medical ICU patients when added to clinical models in both the BWH RoCI (NRI 79%, standard error 14%, p<1×10(-4)) and ME ARDS (NRI 55%, standard error 20%, p = 0.007) cohorts. In the BWH RoCI cohort, those with an elevated mtDNA level had an increased risk of death, even in analyses limited to patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Study limitations include the lack of data elucidating the concise pathological roles of mtDNA in the patients, and the limited numbers of measurements for some of biomarkers.
 CONCLUSIONS Increased mtDNA levels are associated with ICU mortality, and inclusion of mtDNA level improves risk prediction in medical ICU patients. Our data suggest that mtDNA could serve as a viable plasma biomarker in medical ICU patients.

title: Elevated red blood cell distribution width contributes to poor prognosis in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer

text: Several studies have reported that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW) was associated with the poor prognosis of different kinds of cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of RDW in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed a database of 625 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer at our institution from January 2009 to December 2014. The cutoff value of RDW was calculated by receiver-operating characteristic curve. The results demonstrated that patients in high RDW-cv group had a lower overall survival (OS) (P = .018) and disease-free survival (P = .004). We also observed that patients in high RDW-sd group were associated with significantly lower OS (P = .033), whereas the disease-free survival (DFS) was not significantly different (P = .179).In multivariate analysis, we found elevated RDW-cv was associated poor DFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56, P = .010) and RDW-sd can predict a worse OS (HR = 1.70, P = .009).We confirmed that elevated RDW can be an independently prognostic factor in patients undergoing resection for nonmetastatic rectal cancer. So more intervention or surveillance might be paid to the patients with nonmetastatic rectal cancer and elevated RDW values in the future.

title: Current knowledge and future directions of TLR and NOD signaling in sepsis

text: The incidence of sepsis is increasing over time, along with an increased risk of dying from the condition. Sepsis care costs billions annually in the United States. Death from sepsis is understood to be a complex process, driven by a lack of normal immune homeostatic functions and excessive production of proinflammatory cytokines, which leads to multi-organ failure. The Toll-like receptor (TLR) family, one of whose members was initially discovered in Drosophila, performs an important role in the recognition of microbial pathogens. These pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), upon sensing invading microorganisms, activate intracellular signal transduction pathways. NOD signaling is also involved in the recognition of bacteria and acts synergistically with the TLR family in initiating an efficient immune response for the eradication of invading microbial pathogens. TLRs and NOD1/NOD2 respond to different pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Modulation of both TLR and NOD signaling is an area of research that has prompted much excitement and debate as a therapeutic strategy in the management of sepsis. Molecules targeting TLR and NOD signaling pathways exist but regrettably thus far none have proven efficacy from clinical trials.

title: Leisure time physical activity and mortality: a detailed pooled analysis of the dose-response relationship.

text:
IMPORTANCE The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommended a minimum of 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes per week (7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week) of aerobic activity for substantial health benefit and suggested additional benefits by doing more than double this amount. However, the upper limit of longevity benefit or possible harm with more physical activity is unclear.
 OBJECTIVE To quantify the dose-response association between leisure time physical activity and mortality and define the upper limit of benefit or harm associated with increased levels of physical activity.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We pooled data from 6 studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium (baseline 1992-2003). Population-based prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe with self-reported physical activity were analyzed in 2014. A total of 661,137 men and women (median age, 62 years; range, 21-98 years) and 116,686 deaths were included. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cohort stratification to generate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Median follow-up time was 14.2 years.    EXPOSURES Leisure time moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity.
 MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The upper limit of mortality benefit from high levels of leisure time physical activity.
 RESULTS Compared with individuals reporting no leisure time physical activity, we observed a 20% lower mortality risk among those performing less than the recommended minimum of 7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82]), a 31% lower risk at 1 to 2 times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]), and a 37% lower risk at 2 to 3 times the minimum (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]). An upper threshold for mortality benefit occurred at 3 to 5 times the physical activity recommendation (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]); however, compared with the recommended minimum, the additional benefit was modest (31% vs 39%). There was no evidence of harm at 10 or more times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.78]). A similar dose-response relationship was observed for mortality due to cardiovascular disease and to cancer.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Meeting the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans minimum by either moderate- or vigorous-intensity activities was associated with nearly the maximum longevity benefit. We observed a benefit threshold at approximately 3 to 5 times the recommended leisure time physical activity minimum and no excess risk at 10 or more times the minimum. In regard to mortality, health care professionals should encourage inactive adults to perform leisure time physical activity and do not need to discourage adults who already participate in high-activity levels.

title: Cancer treatment and survivorship statistics, 2014.

text: The number of cancer survivors continues to increase due to the aging and growth of the population and improvements in early detection and treatment. In order for the public health community to better serve these survivors, the American Cancer Society and the National Cancer Institute collaborated to estimate the number of current and future cancer survivors using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program registries. In addition, current treatment patterns for the most common cancer types are described based on information in the National Cancer Data Base and the SEER and SEER-Medicare linked databases; treatment-related side effects are also briefly described. Nearly 14.5 million Americans with a history of cancer were alive on January 1, 2014; by January 1, 2024, that number will increase to nearly 19 million. The 3 most common prevalent cancers among males are prostate cancer (43%), colorectal cancer (9%), and melanoma (8%), and those among females are cancers of the breast (41%), uterine corpus (8%), and colon and rectum (8%). The age distribution of survivors varies substantially by cancer type. For example, the majority of prostate cancer survivors (62%) are aged 70 years or older, whereas less than one-third (32%) of melanoma survivors are in this older age group. It is important for clinicians to understand the unique medical and psychosocial needs of cancer survivors and to proactively assess and manage these issues. There are a growing number of resources that can assist patients, caregivers, and health care providers in navigating the various phases of cancer survivorship.

title: Association of Pembrolizumab With Tumor Response and Survival Among Patients With Advanced Melanoma.

text:
IMPORTANCE The programmed death 1 (PD-1) pathway limits immune responses to melanoma and can be blocked with the humanized anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab.
 OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of pembrolizumab with tumor response and overall survival among patients with advanced melanoma.
 DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS Open-label, multicohort, phase 1b clinical trials (enrollment, December 2011-September 2013). Median duration of follow-up was 21 months. The study was performed in academic medical centers in Australia, Canada, France, and the United States. Eligible patients were aged 18 years and older and had advanced or metastatic melanoma. Data were pooled from 655 enrolled patients (135 from a nonrandomized cohort [n = 87 ipilimumab naive; n = 48 ipilimumab treated] and 520 from randomized cohorts [n = 226 ipilimumab naive; n = 294 ipilimumab treated]). Cutoff dates were April 18, 2014, for safety analyses and October 18, 2014, for efficacy analyses.    EXPOSURES Pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks, 10 mg/kg every 3 weeks, or 2 mg/kg every 3 weeks continued until disease progression, intolerable toxicity, or investigator decision.
 MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary end point was confirmed objective response rate (best overall response of complete response or partial response) in patients with measurable disease at baseline per independent central review. Secondary end points included toxicity, duration of response, progression-free survival, and overall survival.
 RESULTS Among the 655 patients (median [range] age, 61 [18-94] years; 405 [62%] men), 581 had measurable disease at baseline. An objective response was reported in 194 of 581 patients (33% [95% CI, 30%-37%]) and in 60 of 133 treatment-naive patients (45% [95% CI, 36% to 54%]). Overall, 74% (152/205) of responses were ongoing at the time of data cutoff; 44% (90/205) of patients had response duration for at least 1 year and 79% (162/205) had response duration for at least 6 months. Twelve-month progression-free survival rates were 35% (95% CI, 31%-39%) in the total population and 52% (95% CI, 43%-60%) among treatment-naive patients. Median overall survival in the total population was 23 months (95% CI, 20-29) with a 12-month survival rate of 66% (95% CI, 62%-69%) and a 24-month survival rate of 49% (95% CI, 44%-53%). In treatment-naive patients, median overall survival was 31 months (95% CI, 24 to not reached) with a 12-month survival rate of 73% (95% CI, 65%-79%) and a 24-month survival rate of 60% (95% CI, 51%-68%). Ninety-two of 655 patients (14%) experienced at least 1 treatment-related grade 3 or 4 adverse event (AE) and 27 of 655 (4%) patients discontinued treatment because of a treatment-related AE. Treatment-related serious AEs were reported in 59 patients (9%). There were no drug-related deaths.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with advanced melanoma, pembrolizumab administration was associated with an overall objective response rate of 33%, 12-month progression-free survival rate of 35%, and median overall survival of 23 months; grade 3 or 4 treatment-related AEs occurred in 14%.
 TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01295827.

title: Variants in the Toll-interacting protein gene are associated with susceptibility to sepsis in the Chinese Han population

text:
INTRODUCTION Deregulated or excessive host immune responses contribute to the pathogenesis of sepsis. Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling pathways and their negative regulators play a pivotal role in the modulation of host immune responses and the development of sepsis. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of variants in the TLR signaling pathway genes and their negative regulator genes with susceptibility to sepsis in the Chinese Han population.
 METHODS Patients with severe sepsis (n = 378) and healthy control subjects (n = 390) were enrolled. Five genes, namely TLR2, TLR4, TLR9, MyD88 and TOLLIP, were investigated for their association with sepsis susceptibility by a tag single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) strategy. Twelve tag SNPs were selected based on the data of Chinese Han in Beijing from the HapMap project and genotyped by direct sequencing. The mRNA expression levels of TOLLIP were determined using real-time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assays, and concentrations of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).
 RESULTS Our results showed that the minor C-allele of rs5743867 in TOLLIP was significantly associated with the decreased risk of sepsis (Padj = 0.00062, odds ratio (OR)adj = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 0.86) after adjustment for covariates in multiple logistic regression analysis. A 3-SNP haplotype block harboring the associated SNP rs5743867 also displayed strong association with omnibus test P value of 0.00049. Haplotype GTC showed a protective role against sepsis (Padj = 0.0012), while haplotype GCT showed an increased risk for sepsis (Padj = 0.00092). After exposure to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), TOLLIP mRNA expression levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from homozygotes for the rs5743867C allele were significantly higher than in heterozygotes and homozygotes for the rs5743867T allele (P = 0.013 and P = 0.01, respectively). Moreover, the concentrations of TNF-α and IL-6 in culture supernatants were significantly lower in the subjects of rs5743867CC genotype than in CT and TT genotype subjects (P = 0.016 and P = 0.003 for TNF-α; P = 0.01 and P = 0.002 for IL-6, respectively).
 CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicated that the variants in TOLLIP were significantly associated with sepsis susceptibility in the Chinese Han population.