query: Incidence of 10/66 dementia is lower than the incidence of DSM-IV dementia.

title: Dementia incidence and mortality in middle-income countries, and associations with indicators of cognitive reserve: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based cohort study

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BACKGROUND Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve.
 METHODS We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3-5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death.
 FINDINGS 12,887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11,718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34,718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4-2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9-15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56-5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4-19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56-1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61-0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81-0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95-1·13).
 INTERPRETATION Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia.
 FUNDING Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV.

title: Antihypertensive classes, cognitive decline and incidence of dementia: a network meta-analysis.

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OBJECTIVES Prevention of cognitive decline and dementia with blood pressure lowering treatments has shown inconsistent results. We compared the effects of different classes of antihypertensive drugs on the incidence of dementia, and on cognitive function.
 METHODS We conducted a systematic review and included 19 randomized trials (18 515 individuals) and 11 studies (831 674 individuals) analysing the effects of antihypertensive treatment on cognition and on the incidence of dementia, respectively, in hypertensive patients without prior cerebrovascular disorders. Network meta-analysis was used for the comparison of antihypertensive classes.
 RESULTS Antihypertensive treatment, regardless of the drug class, had benefits on overall cognition [effect size 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.07] and all cognitive functions except language. Antihypertensive treatment reduced the risk of all-cause dementia by 9%, with reference to the control group (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.89-0.94), when randomized trials and observationnal studies were combined (n = 15). Result was not significant with randomized trials alone (n = 4). Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) had larger benefits than placebo on overall cognition (adjusted effect size 0.60 ± 0.18, P = 0.02). ARBs were more effective than β-blockers (0.67 ± 0.18, P = 0.01), diuretics (0.54 ± 0.19, P = 0.04) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (0.47 ± 0.17, P = 0.04) in rank. The mean change in blood pressure did not differ significantly between the different antihypertensive drug classes.
 CONCLUSION Our results support the notion that antihypertensive treatment has beneficial effects on cognitive decline and prevention of dementia, and indicate that these effects may differ between drug classes with ARBs possibly being the most effective.

title: "The contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of dependence among older people in Latin America, China and India: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey"

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BACKGROUND The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries.
 METHODS A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated.
 RESULTS The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%).
 CONCLUSION The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.

title: Reproductive period and risk of dementia in postmenopausal women.

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CONTEXT Exogenous estrogen use may lower risk of dementia in postmenopausal women. A relationship between long-term exposure to endogenous estrogens and incident dementia has been hypothesized but not studied.
 OBJECTIVE To determine whether a longer reproductive period, as an indicator of longer exposure to endogenous estrogens, is associated with lower risk of dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) in women who have natural menopause.
 DESIGN AND SETTING The Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands.
 PARTICIPANTS A total of 3601 women aged 55 years or older who did not have dementia at baseline (1990-1993) and had information on age at menarche, age at menopause, and type of menopause. Participants were reexamined in 1993-1994 and 1997-1999 and were continuously monitored for development of dementia.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of dementia, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Revised Third Edition criteria, and AD, based on National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, compared by quartiles of reproductive period among women with natural menopause.
 RESULTS During 21 046 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 6.3 years), 199 women developed dementia, including 159 who developed AD. After adjusting for age, dementia was not clearly associated with length of reproductive period. However, after adjusting for multiple covariates, women with natural menopause and more reproductive years had an increased risk of dementia (adjusted rate ratio [RR] for women with >39 reproductive years [highest quartile] compared with <34 reproductive years [lowest quartile], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.84). The adjusted RR per year of increase was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.08). For risk of AD, the adjusted RRs were 1.51 (95% CI, 0.91-2.50) and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07), respectively. Risk of dementia associated with a longer reproductive period was most pronounced in APOE epsilon4 carriers (adjusted RR for >39 reproductive years compared with <34 reproductive years, 4.20 [95% CI, 1.97-8.92] for dementia and 3.42 [95% CI, 1.51-7.75] for AD), whereas in noncarriers, no clear association with dementia or AD was observed.
 CONCLUSION Our findings do not support the hypothesis that a longer reproductive period reduces risk of dementia in women who have natural menopause.

title: Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis

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BACKGROUND The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010.
 METHODS We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies.
 FINDINGS We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals.
 INTERPRETATION Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities.
 FUNDING WHO.

title: The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

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BACKGROUND Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
 METHODS We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries.
 FINDINGS We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013.
 INTERPRETATION Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher.
 FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


query: Incidence of heart failure increased by 10% in women since 1979.

title: Trends in heart failure incidence and survival in a community-based population.

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CONTEXT The epidemic of heart failure has yet to be fully investigated, and data on incidence, survival, and sex-specific temporal trends in community-based populations are limited.
 OBJECTIVE To test the hypothesis that the incidence of heart failure has declined and survival after heart failure diagnosis has improved over time but that secular trends have diverged by sex.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Population-based cohort study using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were 4537 Olmsted County residents (57% women; mean [SD] age, 74 [14] years) with a diagnosis of heart failure between 1979 and 2000. Framingham criteria and clinical criteria were used to validate the diagnosis   MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of heart failure and survival after heart failure diagnosis.
 RESULTS The incidence of heart failure was higher among men (378/100 000 persons; 95% confidence interval [CI], 361-395 for men; 289/100 000 persons; 95% CI, 277-300 for women) and did not change over time among men or women. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years (range, 0-23.8 years), 3347 deaths occurred, including 1930 among women and 1417 among men. Survival after heart failure diagnosis was worse among men than women (relative risk, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.24-1.43) but overall improved over time (5-year age-adjusted survival, 43% in 1979-1984 vs 52% in 1996-2000, P<.001). However, men and younger persons experienced larger survival gains, contrasting with less or no improvement for women and elderly persons.
 CONCLUSION In this community-based cohort, the incidence of heart failure has not declined during 2 decades, but survival after onset of heart failure has increased overall, with less improvement among women and elderly persons.

title: The progression from hypertension to congestive heart failure.

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OBJECTIVES - To study the relative and population-attributable risks of hypertension for the development of congestive heart failure (CHF), to assess the time course of progression from hypertension to CHF, and to identify risk factors that contribute to the development of overt heart failure in hypertensive subjects.
 DESIGN - Inception cohort study.
 SETTING - General community.
 PARTICIPANTS - Original Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study participants aged 40 to 89 years and free of CHF. To reflect more contemporary experience, the starting point of this study was January 1, 1970.    EXPOSURE MEASURES - Hypertension (blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg systolic or 90 mm Hg diastolic or current use of medications for treatment of high blood pressure) and other potential CHF risk factors were assessed at periodic clinic examinations.
 OUTCOME MEASURE - The development of CHF.
 RESULTS - A total of 5143 eligible subjects contributed 72422 person-years of observation. During up to 20.1 years of follow-up (mean, 14.1 years), there were 392 new cases of heart failure; in 91% (357/392), hypertension antedated the development of heart failure. Adjusting for age and heart failure risk factors in proportional hazards regression models, the hazard for developing heart failure in hypertensive compared with normotensive subjects was about 2-fold in men and 3-fold in women. Multivariable analyses revealed that hypertension had a high population-attributable risk for CHF, accounting for 39% of cases in men and 59% in women. Among hypertensive subjects, myocardial infarction, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and valvular heart disease were predictive of increased risk for CHF in both sexes. Survival following the onset of hypertensive CHF was bleak; only 24% of men and 31% of women survived 5 years.
 CONCLUSIONS - Hypertension was the most common risk factor for CHF, and it contributed a large proportion of heart failure cases in this population-based sample. Preventive strategies directed toward earlier and more aggressive blood pressure control are likely to offer the greatest promise for reducing the incidence of CHF and its associated mortality.

title: Clinical epidemiology of heart failure.

text: The aim of this paper is to review the clinical epidemiology of heart failure. The last paper comprehensively addressing the epidemiology of heart failure in Heart appeared in 2000. Despite an increase in manuscripts describing epidemiological aspects of heart failure since the 1990s, additional information is still needed, as indicated by various editorials.

title: Comparison of allogeneic vs autologous bone marrow–derived mesenchymal stem cells delivered by transendocardial injection in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy: the POSEIDON randomized trial.

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CONTEXT Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are under evaluation as a therapy for ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). Both autologous and allogeneic MSC therapies are possible; however, their safety and efficacy have not been compared.
 OBJECTIVE To test whether allogeneic MSCs are as safe and effective as autologous MSCs in patients with left ventricular (LV) dysfunction due to ICM.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A phase 1/2 randomized comparison (POSEIDON study) in a US tertiary-care referral hospital of allogeneic and autologous MSCs in 30 patients with LV dysfunction due to ICM between April 2, 2010, and September 14, 2011, with 13-month follow-up.
 INTERVENTION Twenty million, 100 million, or 200 million cells (5 patients in each cell type per dose level) were delivered by transendocardial stem cell injection into 10 LV sites.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Thirty-day postcatheterization incidence of predefined treatment-emergent serious adverse events (SAEs). Efficacy assessments included 6-minute walk test, exercise peak VO2, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), New York Heart Association class, LV volumes, ejection fraction (EF), early enhancement defect (EED; infarct size), and sphericity index.
 RESULTS Within 30 days, 1 patient in each group (treatment-emergent SAE rate, 6.7%) was hospitalized for heart failure, less than the prespecified stopping event rate of 25%. The 1-year incidence of SAEs was 33.3% (n = 5) in the allogeneic group and 53.3% (n = 8) in the autologous group (P = .46). At 1 year, there were no ventricular arrhythmia SAEs observed among allogeneic recipients compared with 4 patients (26.7%) in the autologous group (P = .10). Relative to baseline, autologous but not allogeneic MSC therapy was associated with an improvement in the 6-minute walk test and the MLHFQ score, but neither improved exercise VO2 max. Allogeneic and autologous MSCs reduced mean EED by −33.21% (95% CI, −43.61% to −22.81%; P < .001) and sphericity index but did not increase EF. Allogeneic MSCs reduced LV end-diastolic volumes. Low-dose concentration MSCs (20 million cells) produced greatest reductions in LV volumes and increased EF. Allogeneic MSCs did not stimulate significant donor-specific alloimmune reactions.
 CONCLUSIONS In this early-stage study of patients with ICM, transendocardial injection of allogeneic and autologous MSCs without a placebo control were both associated with low rates of treatment-emergent SAEs, including immunologic reactions. In aggregate, MSC injection favorably affected patient functional capacity, quality of life, and ventricular remodeling.
 TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01087996.

title: Obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea and incident stroke: the sleep heart health study.

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RATIONALE Although obstructive sleep apnea is associated with physiological perturbations that increase risk of hypertension and are proatherogenic, it is uncertain whether sleep apnea is associated with increased stroke risk in the general population.
 OBJECTIVES To quantify the incidence of ischemic stroke with sleep apnea in a community-based sample of men and women across a wide range of sleep apnea.
 METHODS Baseline polysomnography was performed between 1995 and 1998 in a longitudinal cohort study. The primary exposure was the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index (OAHI) and outcome was incident ischemic stroke.
 MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A total of 5,422 participants without a history of stroke at the baseline examination and untreated for sleep apnea were followed for a median of 8.7 years. One hundred ninety-three ischemic strokes were observed. In covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, a significant positive association between ischemic stroke and OAHI was observed in men (P value for linear trend: P = 0.016). Men in the highest OAHI quartile (>19) had an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-7.4). In the mild to moderate range (OAHI, 5-25), each one-unit increase in OAHI in men was estimated to increase stroke risk by 6% (95% confidence interval, 2-10%). In women, stroke was not significantly associated with OAHI quartiles, but increased risk was observed at an OAHI greater than 25.
 CONCLUSIONS The strong adjusted association between ischemic stroke and OAHI in community-dwelling men with mild to moderate sleep apnea suggests that this is an appropriate target for future stroke prevention trials.

title: Sex-based differences in the effect of digoxin for the treatment of heart failure.

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BACKGROUND The Digitalis Investigation Group trial reported that treatment with digoxin did not decrease overall mortality among patients with heart failure and depressed left ventricular systolic function, although it did reduce hospitalizations slightly. Even though the epidemiologic features, causes, and prognosis of heart failure vary between men and women, sex-based differences in the effect of digoxin were not evaluated.
 METHODS We conducted a post hoc subgroup analysis to assess whether there were sex-based differences in the effect of digoxin therapy among the 6800 patients in the Digitalis Investigation Group study. The presence of an interaction between sex and digoxin therapy with respect to the primary end point of death from any cause was evaluated with the use of Mantel-Haenszel tests of heterogeneity and a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model, adjusted for demographic and clinical variables.
 RESULTS There was an absolute difference of 5.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 0.5 to 11.1) between men and women in the effect of digoxin on the rate of death from any cause (P=0.034 for the interaction). Specifically, women who were randomly assigned to digoxin had a higher rate of death than women who were randomly assigned to placebo (33.1 percent vs. 28.9 percent; absolute difference, 4.2 percent, 95 percent confidence interval, -0.5 to 8.8). In contrast, the rate of death was similar among men randomly assigned to digoxin and men randomly assigned to placebo (35.2 percent vs. 36.9 percent; absolute difference, -1.6 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -4.2 to 1.0). In the multivariable analysis, digoxin was associated with a significantly higher risk of death among women (adjusted hazard ratio for the comparison with placebo, 1.23; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.47), but it had no significant effect among men (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.93; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.02; P=0.014 for the interaction).
 CONCLUSIONS The effect of digoxin therapy differs between men and women. Digoxin therapy is associated with an increased risk of death from any cause among women, but not men, with heart failure and depressed left ventricular systolic function.

title: Diastolic heart failure--abnormalities in active relaxation and passive stiffness of the left ventricle.

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BACKGROUND Patients with signs and symptoms of heart failure and a normal left ventricular ejection fraction are said to have diastolic heart failure. It has traditionally been thought that the pathophysiological cause of heart failure in these patients is an abnormality in the diastolic properties of the left ventricle; however, this hypothesis remains largely unproven.
 METHODS We prospectively identified 47 patients who met the diagnostic criteria for definite diastolic heart failure; all the patients had signs and symptoms of heart failure, a normal ejection fraction, and an increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressure. Ten patients who had no evidence of cardiovascular disease served as controls. Left ventricular diastolic function was assessed by means of cardiac catheterization and echocardiography.
 RESULTS The patients with diastolic heart failure had abnormal left ventricular relaxation and increased left ventricular chamber stiffness. The mean (+/-SD) time constant for the isovolumic-pressure decline (tau) was longer in the group with diastolic heart failure than in the control group (59+/-14 msec vs. 35+/-10 msec, P=0.01). The diastolic pressure-volume relation was shifted up and to the left in the patients with diastolic heart failure as compared with the controls. The corrected left ventricular passive-stiffness constant was significantly higher in the group with diastolic heart failure than in the control group (0.03+/-0.01 vs. 0.01+/-0.01, P<0.001).
 CONCLUSIONS Patients with heart failure and a normal ejection fraction have significant abnormalities in active relaxation and passive stiffness. In these patients, the pathophysiological cause of elevated diastolic pressures and heart failure is abnormal diastolic function.

title: Incidence of childhood distal forearm fractures over 30 years: a population-based study.

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CONTEXT The incidence of distal forearm fractures in children peaks around the time of the pubertal growth spurt, possibly because physical activity increases at the time of a transient deficit in cortical bone mass due to the increased calcium demand during maximal skeletal growth. Changes in physical activity or diet may therefore influence risk of forearm fracture.
 OBJECTIVE To determine whether there has been a change in the incidence of distal forearm fractures in children in recent years.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Population-based study among Rochester, Minn, residents younger than 35 years with distal forearm fractures in 1969-1971, 1979-1981, 1989-1991, and 1999-2001.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Estimated incidence of distal forearm fractures in 4 time periods.
 RESULTS Comparably age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rates per 100 000 increased from 263.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 231.1-295.4) in 1969-1971 to 322.3 (95% CI, 285.3-359.4) in 1979-1981 and to 399.8 (95% CI, 361.0-438.6) in 1989-1991 before leveling off at 372.9 (95% CI, 339.1-406.7) in 1999-2001. Age-adjusted incidence rates per 100 000 were 32% greater among male residents in 1999-2001 compared with 1969-1971 (409.4 [95% CI, 359.9-459.0] vs 309.4 [95% CI, 259.3-359.5]; P =.01) and 56% greater among female residents in the same time periods (334.3 [95% CI, 288.6-380.1] vs 214.6 [95% CI, 174.9-254.4]; P<.001). The peak incidence and greatest increase occurred between ages 11 and 14 years in boys and 8 and 11 years in girls.
 CONCLUSIONS There has been a statistically significant increase in the incidence of distal forearm fractures in children and adolescents, but whether this is due to changing patterns of physical activity, decreased bone acquisition due to poor calcium intake, or both is unclear at present. Given the large number of childhood fractures, however, studies are needed to define the cause(s) of this increase.

title: The effect of mass screening on incidence and mortality of squamous and adenocarcinoma of cervix uteri.

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OBJECTIVE To describe the efficacy of the Finnish mass screening program for cervical squamous carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, as reflected by changes of incidence and mortality rate.
 METHODS Cervical cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Data were available from the year 1953, when the registry was established. The nationwide mass screening program in Finland was started in the mid-1960s. A centralized organization administers this program. Women age 30-60 years are notified for screening every 5 years.
 RESULTS The mean incidence of cervical carcinoma in the early 1960s was 15.4 per 10(5) woman-years. In 1991, it was only 2.7 per 10(5) woman-years. The mortality rate has decreased in the same proportion since the mass screening program. In the early 1960s, the mortality was 6.6 and in 1991 1.4 per 10(5) woman-years. However, the decrease of the incidence is seen almost exclusively in squamous cell carcinomas. The mortality caused by adenocarcinoma has decreased in screened birth cohorts, but the incidence rate has remained the same.
 CONCLUSIONS The Finnish mass screening program has been effective and its continuation is of utmost importance. In the future more attention should be given to glandular cell atypias in cervical smears. Thus, it might be possible to decrease the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma.

title: Sympathetic baroreflex gain in normotensive pregnant women.

text: Muscle sympathetic nerve activity is increased during normotensive pregnancy while mean arterial pressure is maintained or reduced, suggesting baroreflex resetting. We hypothesized spontaneous sympathetic baroreflex gain would be reduced in normotensive pregnant women relative to nonpregnant matched controls. Integrated muscle sympathetic burst incidence and total sympathetic activity (microneurography), blood pressure (Finometer), and R-R interval (ECG) were assessed at rest in 11 pregnant women (33 ± 1 wk gestation, 31 ± 1 yr, prepregnancy BMI: 23.5 ± 0.9 kg/m(2)) and 11 nonpregnant controls (29 ± 1 yr; BMI: 25.2 ± 1.7 kg/m(2)). Pregnant women had elevated baseline sympathetic burst incidence (43 ± 2 vs. 33 ± 2 bursts/100 heart beats, P = 0.01) and total sympathetic activity (1,811 ± 148 vs. 1,140 ± 55 au, P < 0.01) relative to controls. Both mean (88 ± 3 vs. 91 ± 2 mmHg, P = 0.4) and diastolic (DBP) (72 ± 3 vs. 73 ± 2 mmHg, P = 0.7) pressures were similar between pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively, indicating an upward resetting of the baroreflex set point with pregnancy. Baroreflex gain, calculated as the linear relationship between sympathetic burst incidence and DBP, was reduced in pregnant women relative to controls (-3.7 ± 0.5 vs. -5.4 ± 0.5 bursts·100 heart beats(-1)·mmHg(-1), P = 0.03), as was baroreflex gain calculated with total sympathetic activity (-294 ± 24 vs. -210 ± 24 au·100 heart beats(-1)·mmHg(-1); P = 0.03). Cardiovagal baroreflex gain (sequence method) was not different between nonpregnant controls and pregnant women (49 ± 8 vs. 36 ± 8 ms/mmHg; P = 0.2). However, sympathetic (burst incidence) and cardiovagal gains were negatively correlated in pregnant women (R = -0.7; P = 0.02). Together, these data indicate that the influence of the sympathetic nervous system over arterial blood pressure is reduced in normotensive pregnancy, in terms of both long-term and beat-to-beat regulation of arterial pressure, likely through a baroreceptor-dependent mechanism.

title: Heart failure admissions in adults with congenital heart disease; risk factors and prognosis.

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BACKGROUND Heart failure (HF) is a serious complication and often the cause of death in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD). Therefore, our aims were to determine the frequency of HF-admissions, and to assess risk factors of first HF-admission and of mortality after first HF-admission in adults with CHD.
 METHODS The Dutch CONCOR registry was linked to the Hospital Discharge Registry and National Mortality Registry to obtain data on HF-admissions and mortality. Risk factors for both HF-admission and mortality were assessed using Cox regression models.
 RESULTS Of 10,808 adult patients (49% male), 274 (2.5%) were admitted for HF during a median follow-up period of 21 years. The incidence of first HF-admission was 1.2 per 1000 patient-years, but the incidence of HF itself will be higher. Main defect, multiple defects, and surgical interventions in childhood were identified as independent risk factors of HF-admission. Patients admitted for HF had a five-fold higher risk of mortality than patients not admitted (hazard ratio (HR)=5.3; 95% confidence interval 4.2-6.9). One- and three-year mortality after first HF-admission were 24% and 35% respectively. Independent risk factors for three-year mortality after first HF-admission were male gender, pacemaker implantation, admission duration, non-cardiac medication use and high serum creatinine.
 CONCLUSIONS The incidence of HF-admission in adults with CHD is 1.2 per 1000 patient-years. Mortality risk is substantially increased after HF-admission, which emphasises the importance to identify patients at high risk of HF-admission. These patients might benefit from closer follow-up and earlier medical interventions. The presented risk factors may facilitate surveillance.

title: Baseline cytology, human papillomavirus testing, and risk for cervical neoplasia: A 10-year cohort analysis

text: As more is learned about the development of cervical cancer, the value of annual Pap smear screening for all women is being questioned. This study was conducted to investigate whether women at higher risk for the development of cervical cancer could be identified by testing for the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the cervical smear. These women could be followed annually, and the interval between screening Pap smears for women at lower risk could be increased. Study participants were women enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente healthcare plan in Portland, Oregon, who underwent annual Pap smear screening between April 1989, and November 1990. More than 20,000 women (20,810 of 23,702) had satisfactory cervical smears with sufficient samples for HPV testing, which was conducted using a polymerase chain reaction-based method with MYO9/11 primers. Most women (83.6%) had at least one follow-up smear during the study period; however, women with atypical squamous cells (ASC) or worse had more smears than women with normal results (mean, 4.4 vs. 3.3). Follow-up was conducted more or less annually for a total period of 122 months. HPV results were not used in deciding patient management. Ninety-six percent of the 20,810 baseline Pap smears were diagnosed as negative (N = 20,156). Thirteen percent of these patients tested positive for HPV. The baseline smears of 654 of the 20,810 women (3.1%) were classified as ASC or worse. Of these 654 smears, 417 (63.8%) were positive for HPV. One hundred seventy-eight women had a cytologic diagnosis of a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse; of these, 143 (80.3%) tested positive for HPV. During the 10 years of follow-up, 171 patients developed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 or cervical cancer. The baseline smear was normal in 112 of these women and ASC or worse in 59 (34.5%). Only half (49.2%) of the 58 patients diagnosed within the first 45 months of follow-up had an abnormal baseline smear. During this first 45 months, 7.85% of the women whose initial Pap test was at least ASC were diagnosed with CIN 3 or cancer. The cumulative incidence at 10 years of follow-up was 10.2%. Sixty of the 171 women with CIN 3 or cervical cancer had a negative baseline HPV test. Of the 118 women who were diagnosed during the first 45 months of follow-up, 89 (79.4%) were HPV positive initially. The cumulative incidence of CIN 3 or cancer among the group with a positive baseline HPV test was 6.92% over 10 years but only 1.73% at 45 months. The risk of developing CIN 3 or cancer remained elevated throughout the study in those women with a positive baseline HPV test. The predictive ability of the baseline Pap smear diminished as the follow-up interval increased. Fifteen percent of the patients (N = 3216) had a positive Pap smear, a positive HPV test, or both at the initial examination. One hundred twenty-three (71.9%) were among the 171 women who developed CIN 3 or cancer. Eighty-six percent (102 of 123) of the patients who were diagnosed within the first 45 months were positive with at least one of the screening studies. The cumulative incidence over 45 months for women who had positive HPV testing and/or abnormal Pap smear results was 4.54%. Women with negative results in both screening tests had a cumulative risk of 0.16% for the same period. At 10 years the cumulative risk incidence for these two groups was 6.83% and 0.79%, respectively, yielding a negative predictive value of 99.1% for combined testing.

title: Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study

text: Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors. Design Prospective open cohort study. Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database. Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline. Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records. Results 363 565 incident cases of cardiovascular disease were identified in the derivation cohort during follow-up arising from 50.8 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met the model inclusion criteria except for HIV/AIDS, which was not statistically significant. The models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the algorithm explained 59.6% of the variation in time to diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (R2, with higher values indicating more variation), and the D statistic was 2.48 and Harrell's C statistic was 0.88 (both measures of discrimination, with higher values indicating better discrimination). The corresponding values for men were 54.8%, 2.26, and 0.86. Overall performance of the updated QRISK3 algorithms was similar to the QRISK2 algorithms. Conclusion Updated QRISK3 risk prediction models were developed and validated. The inclusion of additional clinical variables in QRISK3 (chronic kidney disease, a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, SLE, atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and erectile dysfunction) can help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.

title: Effect of mammographic screening from age 40 years on breast cancer mortality in the UK Age trial at 17 years' follow-up: a randomised controlled trial.

text:
BACKGROUND Age-specific effects of mammographic screening, and the timing of such effects, are a matter of debate. The results of the UK Age trial, which compared the effect of invitation to annual mammographic screening from age 40 years with commencement of screening at age 50 years on breast cancer mortality, have been reported at 10 years of follow-up and showed no significant difference in mortality between the trial groups. Here, we report the results of the UK Age trial after 17 years of follow-up.
 METHODS Women aged 39-41 from 23 UK NHS Breast Screening Programme units years were randomly assigned by individual randomisation (1:2) to either an intervention group offered annual screening by mammography up to and including the calendar year of their 48th birthday or to a control group receiving usual medical care (invited for screening at age 50 years and every 3 years thereafter). Both groups were stratified by general practice. We compared breast cancer incidence and mortality by time since randomisation. Analyses included all women randomly assigned who could be traced with the National Health Service Central Register and who had not died or emigrated before entry. The primary outcome measures were mortality from breast cancer (defined as deaths with breast cancer coded as the underlying cause of death) and breast cancer incidence, including in-situ, invasive, and total incidence. Because there is an interest in the timing of the mortality effect, we analysed the results in different follow-up periods. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN24647151.
 FINDINGS Between Oct 14, 1990, and Sept 25, 1997, 160 921 participants were randomly assigned; 53 883 women in the intervention group and 106 953 assigned to usual medical care were included in this analysis. After a median follow-up of 17 years (IQR 16·8-18·8), the rate ratio (RR) for breast cancer mortality was 0·88 (95% CI 0·74-1·04) from tumours diagnosed during the intervention phase. A significant reduction in breast cancer mortality was noted in the intervention group compared with the control group in the first 10 years after diagnosis (RR 0·75, 0·58-0·97) but not thereafter (RR 1·02, 0·80-1·30) from tumours diagnosed during the intervention phase. The overall breast cancer incidence during 17 year follow-up was similar between the intervention group and the control group (RR 0·98, 0·93-1·04).
 INTERPRETATION Our results support an early reduction in mortality from breast cancer with annual mammography screening in women aged 40-49 years. Further data are needed to fully understand long-term effects. Cumulative incidence figures suggest at worst a small amount of overdiagnosis.
 FUNDING National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and the American Cancer Society. Past funding was received from the Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, the UK Department of Health, and the US National Cancer Institute.

title: Long-term effects of continuing adjuvant tamoxifen to 10 years versus stopping at 5 years after diagnosis of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: ATLAS, a randomised trial

text:
BACKGROUND For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years.
 METHODS In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12,894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633.
 FINDINGS Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12,894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%).
 INTERPRETATION For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis.
 FUNDING Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

title: Pioglitazone Use and Risk of Bladder Cancer and Other Common Cancers in Persons With Diabetes.

text:
IMPORTANCE Studies suggest pioglitazone use may increase risk of cancers.
 OBJECTIVE To examine whether pioglitazone use for diabetes is associated with risk of bladder and 10 additional cancers.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cohort and nested case-control analyses among persons with diabetes. A bladder cancer cohort followed 193,099 persons aged 40 years or older in 1997-2002 until December 2012; 464 case patients and 464 matched controls were surveyed about additional confounders. A cohort analysis of 10 additional cancers included 236,507 persons aged 40 years or older in 1997-2005 and followed until June 2012. Cohorts were from Kaiser Permanente Northern California.    EXPOSURES Ever use, duration, cumulative dose, and time since initiation of pioglitazone as time dependent.
 MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident cancer, including bladder, prostate, female breast, lung/bronchus, endometrial, colon, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, pancreas, kidney/renal pelvis, rectum, and melanoma.
 RESULTS Among 193,099 persons in the bladder cancer cohort, 34,181 (18%) received pioglitazone (median duration, 2.8 years; range, 0.2-13.2 years) and 1261 had incident bladder cancer. Crude incidences of bladder cancer in pioglitazone users and nonusers were 89.8 and 75.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Ever use of pioglitazone was not associated with bladder cancer risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.26). Results were similar in case-control analyses (pioglitazone use: 19.6% among case patients and 17.5% among controls; adjusted odds ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.78-1.80). In adjusted analyses, there was no association with 8 of the 10 additional cancers; ever use of pioglitazone was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26) and pancreatic cancer (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.16-1.71). Crude incidences of prostate and pancreatic cancer in pioglitazone users vs nonusers were 453.3 vs 449.3 and 81.1 vs 48.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. No clear patterns of risk for any cancer were observed for time since initiation, duration, or dose.
 CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Pioglitazone use was not associated with a statistically significant increased risk of bladder cancer, although an increased risk, as previously observed, could not be excluded. The increased prostate and pancreatic cancer risks associated with ever use of pioglitazone merit further investigation to assess whether they are causal or are due to chance, residual confounding, or reverse causality.

title: Plasma Corin as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure.

text:
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of plasma corin in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).
 BACKGROUND In recent years, accumulating evidence has indicated that corin plays a critical role in regulating blood pressure and cardiac function.
 METHODS We enrolled 1,148 consecutive CHF patients in a prospective cohort study and explored the association between plasma corin levels and clinical prognosis using multivariate Cox regression analysis.
 RESULTS Patients with low corin levels (<458 pg/ml) were more likely to be women and to be hypertensive. Low corin was found to be associated with an increase in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, and a decrease in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that log corin was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac event(s) (MACE) (hazard ratio: 0.62; 95% confidence interval: 0.39 to 0.95), together with age, diabetes, NYHA functional class, LVEF, eGFR, and log NT-proBNP. In addition, log corin was also a significant predictor for cardiovascular death (p = 0.041) and heart failure rehospitalization (p = 0.015) after adjustment for clinical variables and established biomarkers of adverse prognosis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that low corin was a significant predictor of MACE in patients with NT-proBNP levels above and below the median.
 CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates that plasma corin is a valuable prognostic marker of MACE in patients with CHF, independent of established conventional risk factors.

title: Breathing more with weaker respiratory muscles in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

text: Exertional fatigue and dyspnoea limit the daily activities of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension 1. These symptoms are usually explained by the inability of the overloaded right ventricle to perfuse the lungs and to adapt systemic oxygen delivery to oxygen demand. Accordingly, pulmonary hypertension patients present with reductions in peak oxygen uptake, anaerobic threshold, oxygen pulse, ventilatory efficiency and 6-min walk distance 2–8. This ergospirometric profile is strikingly similar to that of congestive heart failure 8–12, further supporting the notion of impaired cardiac output adaptation to peripheral oxygen requirements as the main cause of decreased exercise capacity. However, in both pulmonary hypertension and heart failure, ergospirometric variables and walk distances are better correlated to functional class and prognosis than to haemodynamic function 3, 6, 7, 10–12. In addition, impaired skeletal muscle function has been repeatedly reported in heart failure, fuelling a “muscle hypothesis” relating dyspnoea and fatigue symptoms to skeletal muscle metaboreceptor and/or ergoreceptor reflexes 13. The muscle hypothesis implies a persistent sympathetic nervous system activation, which has indeed been shown to occur in heart failure 14 and also, more recently, in pulmonary hypertension 15. Until now, there have been no studies on skeletal muscle function in pulmonary arterial hypertension.   In the present issue of the European Respiratory Journal , Meyer et al. 16 report data suggesting that respiratory muscle strength is decreased in pulmonary arterial hypertension. In a prospective study on 37 patients with idiopathic pulmonary hypertension, significant decreases in maximal inspiratory (MIP) and expiratory pressures (MEP) were measured, together with an increased mouth occlusion pressure within first 0.1 s of inspiration ( P 0.1), suggesting inadequate muscle …

title: Mass screening programmes and trends in cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands.

text: With respect to cervical cancer management, Finland and the Netherlands are comparable in relevant characteristics, e.g., fertility rate, age-of-mother at first birth and a national screening programme for several years. The aim of this study is to compare trends in incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands in relation to the introduction and intensity of the screening programmes. Therefore, incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the Cancer Registries of Finland and the Netherlands. Data on screening intensity were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry and the Dutch evaluation centre at ErasmusMC-Rotterdam. Women aged 30-60 have been screened every 5 years, in Finland since 1992 and in the Netherlands since 1996. Screening protocols for smear taking and referral to the gynaecologist are comparable. Incidence and mortality rates have declined more in Finland. In 2003, age-adjusted incidence and mortality in Finland were 4.0 and 0.9 and in the Netherlands 4.9 and 1.4 per 100,000 woman-years, respectively. Excess smear use in the Netherlands was estimated to be 24 per 1,000 women during a 5-year interval compared to 121 in Finland. The decline in mortality in Finland seems to be almost completely related to the screening programme whereas in the Netherlands it was initially considered to be a natural decline. Differences in risk factors might also play a role: the Netherlands has higher population density and higher percentages of immigrants and (female) smokers. The greater excess smear use in Finland might also have affected incidence.

title: Good and bad consequences of altered fatty acid metabolism in heart failure: evidence from mouse models.

text: The shift in substrate preference away from fatty acid oxidation (FAO) towards increased glucose utilization in heart failure has long been interpreted as an oxygen-sparing mechanism. Inhibition of FAO has therefore evolved as an accepted approach to treat heart failure. However, recent data indicate that increased reliance on glucose might be detrimental rather than beneficial for the failing heart. This review discusses new insights into metabolic adaptations in heart failure. A particular focus lies on data obtained from mouse models with modulations of cardiac FA metabolism at different levels of the FA metabolic pathway and how these differently affect cardiac function. Based on studies in which these mouse models were exposed to ischaemic and non-ischaemic heart failure, we discuss whether and when modulations in FA metabolism are protective against heart failure.