query: Participants who quit smoking reduce lung cancer risk by approximately 50%.

title: Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk.

text:
CONTEXT Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.
 OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of smoking reduction on lung cancer incidence.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observational population-based cohort study with up to 31 years of follow-up from the Copenhagen Centre for Prospective Population Studies, which administrates data from 3 longitudinal studies conducted in Copenhagen and suburbs, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, the Copenhagen Male Study, and the Glostrup Population Studies, Denmark. Participants were 11,151 men and 8563 women (N = 19,714) aged 20 to 93 years, who attended 2 consecutive examinations with a 5- to 10-year interval between 1964 and 1988. Participants underwent a physical examination and completed self-filled questionnaires about lifestyle habits. The study population was divided into 6 groups according to smoking habits: continued heavy smokers (> or =15 cigarettes/d), reducers (reduced from > or =15 cigarettes/d by minimum of 50% without quitting), continued light smokers (1-14 cigarettes/d), quitters (stopped between first and second examination), stable ex-smokers, and never smokers.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incident primary lung cancer cases assessed by record linkage with the National Cancer Registry until December 31, 2003.
 RESULTS There were 864 incident lung cancers during follow-up. Using Cox regression, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for lung cancer in reducers was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.98) compared with persistent heavy smokers. The HR for light smokers was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.35-0.56); for quitters, HR 0.50 (95% CI, 0.36-0.69), for stable ex-smokers, HR 0.17 (95% CI, 0.13-0.23), and for never smokers, HR 0.09 (95% CI, 0.06-0.13).
 CONCLUSION Among individuals who smoke 15 or more cigarettes per day, smoking reduction by 50% significantly reduces the risk of lung cancer.

title: Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

text: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

title: Influence of smoking cessation after diagnosis of early stage lung cancer on prognosis: systematic review of observational studies with meta-analysis

text:
OBJECTIVE To systematically review the evidence that smoking cessation after diagnosis of a primary lung tumour affects prognosis.
 DESIGN Systematic review with meta-analysis.
 DATA SOURCES CINAHL (from 1981), Embase (from 1980), Medline (from 1966), Web of Science (from 1966), CENTRAL (from 1977) to December 2008, and reference lists of included studies.    STUDY SELECTION Randomised controlled trials or observational longitudinal studies that measured the effect of quitting smoking after diagnosis of lung cancer on prognostic outcomes, regardless of stage at presentation or tumour histology, were included.
 DATA EXTRACTION Two researchers independently identified studies for inclusion and extracted data. Estimates were combined by using a random effects model, and the I(2) statistic was used to examine heterogeneity. Life tables were used to model five year survival for early stage non-small cell lung cancer and limited stage small cell lung cancer, using death rates for continuing smokers and quitters obtained from this review.
 RESULTS In 9/10 included studies, most patients studied were diagnosed as having an early stage lung tumour. Continued smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of all cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.94, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 7.54) and recurrence (1.86, 1.01 to 3.41) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer and of all cause mortality (1.86, 1.33 to 2.59), development of a second primary tumour (4.31, 1.09 to 16.98), and recurrence (1.26, 1.06 to 1.50) in limited stage small cell lung cancer. No study contained data on the effect of quitting smoking on cancer specific mortality or on development of a second primary tumour in non-small cell lung cancer. Life table modelling on the basis of these data estimated 33% five year survival in 65 year old patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancer who continued to smoke compared with 70% in those who quit smoking. In limited stage small cell lung cancer, an estimated 29% of continuing smokers would survive for five years compared with 63% of quitters on the basis of the data from this review.
 CONCLUSIONS This review provides preliminary evidence that smoking cessation after diagnosis of early stage lung cancer improves prognostic outcomes. From life table modelling, the estimated number of deaths prevented is larger than would be expected from reduction of cardiorespiratory deaths after smoking cessation, so most of the mortality gain is likely to be due to reduced cancer progression. These findings indicate that offering smoking cessation treatment to patients presenting with early stage lung cancer may be beneficial.

title: Relationship between reduced forced expiratory volume in one second and the risk of lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

text:
BACKGROUND Individuals with severely impaired lung function have an increased risk of lung cancer. Whether milder reductions in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) also increase the risk of lung cancer is controversial. Moreover, there is little consensus on whether men and women have similar risks for lung cancer for similar decreases in FEV(1).
 METHODS A search was conducted of PubMed and EMBASE from January 1966 to January 2005 and studies that examined the relationship between FEV1 and lung cancer were identified. The search was limited to studies that were population based, employed a prospective design, were large in size (> or = 5000 participants), and adjusted for cigarette smoking status.
 RESULTS Twenty eight abstracts were identified, six of which did not report FEV1 and eight did not adjust for smoking. Included in this report are four studies that reported FEV1 in quintiles. The risk of lung cancer increased with decreasing FEV1. Compared with the highest quintile of FEV1 (> 100% of predicted), the lowest quintile of FEV1 (< approximately 70% of predicted) was associated with a 2.23 fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73 to 2.86) increase in the risk for lung cancer in men and a 3.97 fold increase in women (95% CI 1.93 to 8.25). Even relatively small decrements in FEV1 ( approximately 90% of predicted) increased the risk for lung cancer by 30% in men (95% CI 1.05 to 1.62) and 2.64 fold in women (95% CI 1.30 to 5.31).
 CONCLUSION Reduced FEV1 is strongly associated with lung cancer. Even a relatively modest reduction in FEV1 is a significant predictor of lung cancer, especially among women.

title: Long-term efficacy of nicotine replacement therapy for smoking cessation in adolescents: a randomized controlled trial.

text:
BACKGROUND A double-blind RCT on the short-term efficacy of nicotine patches compared to placebo patches among Dutch adolescents was conducted. The findings demonstrated that nicotine patches are efficacious for smoking cessation at end-of-treatment; however, only in highly compliant participants. We tested whether the effects of NRT also held in 6- (T7) and 12-month (T8) follow-up assessments.
 METHODS Adolescents aged 12-18 years, who smoked at least seven cigarettes a day and who were motivated to quit smoking were recruited at school yards and randomly assigned to either a nicotine patch (n=182) or a placebo patch (n=180) condition according to a computer generated list. Participants (N=257, age: 16.7 ± 1.13 years) attended an information meeting followed by a 6- or 9-week treatment. Smoking cessation, compliance, and potential covariates were measured by means of online questionnaires. Smoking cessation at T8 was biochemically validated by saliva cotinine.
 RESULTS At T7, 8.1% and 5.7% of participants were abstinent in the nicotine and placebo patch groups, respectively. At T8, abstinence was 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Intention-to-treat analyses showed no significant effects of NRT on abstinence rates at T7 (OR=1.54, 95% CI=0.57, 4.16) and validated abstinence rates at T8 (OR=0.64, 95% CI=0.21, 1.93) neither after considering compliance nor after adjusting for covariates.
 CONCLUSIONS NRT fails in helping adolescents quit smoking at 6- and 12-month follow-ups. This finding suggests that a more intensive approach is needed to assist youngsters in their quit attempts.

title: Pharmacological interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis.

text:
BACKGROUND Smoking is the leading preventable cause of illness and premature death worldwide. Some medications have been proven to help people to quit, with three licensed for this purpose in Europe and the USA: nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, and varenicline. Cytisine (a treatment pharmacologically similar to varenicline) is also licensed for use in Russia and some of the former socialist economy countries. Other therapies, including nortriptyline, have also been tested for effectiveness.
 OBJECTIVES How do NRT, bupropion and varenicline compare with placebo and with each other in achieving long-term abstinence (six months or longer)? How do the remaining treatments compare with placebo in achieving long-term abstinence? How do the risks of adverse and serious adverse events (SAEs) compare between the treatments, and are there instances where the harms may outweigh the benefits?
 METHODS The overview is restricted to Cochrane reviews, all of which include randomised trials. Participants are usually adult smokers, but we exclude reviews of smoking cessation for pregnant women and in particular disease groups or specific settings. We cover nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), antidepressants (bupropion and nortriptyline), nicotine receptor partial agonists (varenicline and cytisine), anxiolytics, selective type 1 cannabinoid receptor antagonists (rimonabant), clonidine, lobeline, dianicline, mecamylamine, Nicobrevin, opioid antagonists, nicotine vaccines, and silver acetate. Our outcome for benefit is continuous or prolonged abstinence at least six months from the start of treatment. Our outcome for harms is the incidence of serious adverse events associated with each of the treatments. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) in The Cochrane Library, for any reviews with 'smoking' in the title, abstract or keyword fields. The last search was conducted in November 2012. We assessed methodological quality using a revised version of the AMSTAR scale. For NRT, bupropion and varenicline we conducted network meta-analyses, comparing each with the others and with placebo for benefit, and varenicline and bupropion for risks of serious adverse events.
 MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 treatment-specific reviews. The analyses covered 267 studies, involving 101,804 participants. Both NRT and bupropion were superior to placebo (odds ratios (OR) 1.84; 95% credible interval (CredI) 1.71 to 1.99, and 1.82; 95% CredI 1.60 to 2.06 respectively). Varenicline increased the odds of quitting compared with placebo (OR 2.88; 95% CredI 2.40 to 3.47). Head-to-head comparisons between bupropion and NRT showed equal efficacy (OR 0.99; 95% CredI 0.86 to 1.13). Varenicline was superior to single forms of NRT (OR 1.57; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.91), and to bupropion (OR 1.59; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.96). Varenicline was more effective than nicotine patch (OR 1.51; 95% CredI 1.22 to 1.87), than nicotine gum (OR 1.72; 95% CredI 1.38 to 2.13), and than 'other' NRT (inhaler, spray, tablets, lozenges; OR 1.42; 95% CredI 1.12 to 1.79), but was not more effective than combination NRT (OR 1.06; 95% CredI 0.75 to 1.48). Combination NRT also outperformed single formulations. The four categories of NRT performed similarly against each other, apart from 'other' NRT, which was marginally more effective than NRT gum (OR 1.21; 95% CredI 1.01 to 1.46). Cytisine (a nicotine receptor partial agonist) returned positive findings (risk ratio (RR) 3.98; 95% CI 2.01 to 7.87), without significant adverse events or SAEs. Across the 82 included and excluded bupropion trials, our estimate of six seizures in the bupropion arms versus none in the placebo arms was lower than the expected rate (1:1000), at about 1:1500. SAE meta-analysis of the bupropion studies demonstrated no excess of neuropsychiatric (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.31 to 2.50) or cardiovascular events (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.59). SAE meta-analysis of 14 varenicline trials found no difference between the varenicline and placebo arms (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.55), and subgroup analyses detected no significant excess of neuropsychiatric events (RR 0.53; 95% CI 0.17 to 1.67), or of cardiac events (RR 1.26; 95% CI 0.62 to 2.56). Nortriptyline increased the chances of quitting (RR 2.03; 95% CI 1.48 to 2.78). Neither nortriptyline nor bupropion were shown to enhance the effect of NRT compared with NRT alone. Clonidine increased the chances of quitting (RR 1.63; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.18), but this was offset by a dose-dependent rise in adverse events. Mecamylamine in combination with NRT may increase the chances of quitting, but the current evidence is inconclusive. Other treatments failed to demonstrate a benefit compared with placebo. Nicotine vaccines are not yet licensed for use as an aid to smoking cessation or relapse prevention. Nicobrevin's UK license is now revoked, and the manufacturers of rimonabant, taranabant and dianicline are no longer supporting the development or testing of these treatments.    AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS NRT, bupropion, varenicline and cytisine have been shown to improve the chances of quitting. Combination NRT and varenicline are equally effective as quitting aids. Nortriptyline also improves the chances of quitting. On current evidence, none of the treatments appear to have an incidence of adverse events that would mitigate their use. Further research is warranted into the safety of varenicline and into cytisine's potential as an effective and affordable treatment, but not into the efficacy and safety of NRT.

title: Association between smoking and risk of bladder cancer among men and women.

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CONTEXT Previous studies indicate that the population attributable risk (PAR) of bladder cancer for tobacco smoking is 50% to 65% in men and 20% to 30% in women and that current cigarette smoking triples bladder cancer risk relative to never smoking. During the last 30 years, incidence rates have remained stable in the United States in men (123.8 per 100,000 person-years to 142.2 per 100,000 person-years) and women (32.5 per 100,000 person-years to 33.2 per 100,000 person-years); however, changing smoking prevalence and cigarette composition warrant revisiting risk estimates for smoking and bladder cancer.
 OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and bladder cancer.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Men (n = 281,394) and women (n = 186,134) of the National Institutes of Health-AARP (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study cohort completed a lifestyle questionnaire and were followed up between October 25, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Previous prospective cohort studies of smoking and incident bladder cancer were identified by systematic review and relative risks were estimated from fixed-effects models with heterogeneity assessed by the I(2) statistic.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs), PARs, and number needed to harm (NNH).
 RESULTS During 4,518,941 person-years of follow-up, incident bladder cancer occurred in 3896 men (144.0 per 100,000 person-years) and 627 women (34.5 per 100,000 person-years). Former smokers (119.8 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.03-2.44; NNH, 1250) and current smokers (177.3 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.66-4.50; NNH, 727) had higher risks of bladder cancer than never smokers (39.8 per 100,000 person-years). In contrast, the summary risk estimate for current smoking in 7 previous studies (initiated between 1963 and 1987) was 2.94 (95% CI, 2.45-3.54; I(2) = 0.0%). The PAR for ever smoking in our study was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.45-0.54) in men and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45-0.59) in women.
 CONCLUSION Compared with a pooled estimate of US data from cohorts initiated between 1963 and 1987, relative risks for smoking in the more recent NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort were higher, with PARs for women comparable with those for men.

title: Respiratory and cardiovascular responses to walking down a traffic-polluted road compared with walking in a traffic-free area in participants aged 60 years and older with chronic lung or heart disease and age-matched healthy controls: a randomised, crossover study

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BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to pollution can lead to an increase in the rate of decline of lung function, especially in older individuals and in those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas shorter-term exposure at higher pollution levels has been implicated in causing excess deaths from ischaemic heart disease and exacerbations of COPD. We aimed to assess the effects on respiratory and cardiovascular responses of walking down a busy street with high levels of pollution compared with walking in a traffic-free area with lower pollution levels in older adults.
 METHODS In this randomised, crossover study, we recruited men and women aged 60 years and older with angiographically proven stable ischaemic heart disease or stage 2 Global initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) COPD who had been clinically stable for 6 months, and age-matched healthy volunteers. Individuals with ischaemic heart disease or COPD were recruited from existing databases or outpatient respiratory and cardiology clinics at the Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust and age-matched healthy volunteers using advertising and existing databases. All participants had abstained from smoking for at least 12 months and medications were taken as recommended by participants' doctors during the study. Participants were randomly assigned by drawing numbered disks at random from a bag to do a 2 h walk either along a commercial street in London (Oxford Street) or in an urban park (Hyde Park). Baseline measurements of participants were taken before the walk in the hospital laboratory. During each walk session, black carbon, particulate matter (PM) concentrations, ultrafine particles, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations were measured.
 FINDINGS Between October, 2012, and June, 2014, we screened 135 participants, of whom 40 healthy volunteers, 40 individuals with COPD, and 39 with ischaemic heart disease were recruited. Concentrations of black carbon, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and ultrafine particles were higher on Oxford Street than in Hyde Park. Participants with COPD reported more cough (odds ratio [OR] 1·95, 95% CI 0·96-3·95; p<0·1), sputum (3·15, 1·39-7·13; p<0·05), shortness of breath (1·86, 0·97-3·57; p<0·1), and wheeze (4·00, 1·52-10·50; p<0·05) after walking down Oxford Street compared with Hyde Park. In all participants, irrespective of their disease status, walking in Hyde Park led to an increase in lung function (forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] and forced vital capacity [FVC]) and a decrease in pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index up to 26 h after the walk. By contrast, these beneficial responses were attenuated after walking on Oxford Street. In participants with COPD, a reduction in FEV1 and FVC, and an increase in R5-20 were associated with an increase in during-walk exposure to NO2, ultrafine particles and PM2.5, and an increase in PWV and augmentation index with NO2 and ultrafine particles. In healthy volunteers, PWV and augmentation index were associated both with black carbon and ultrafine particles.
 INTERPRETATION Short-term exposure to traffic pollution prevents the beneficial cardiopulmonary effects of walking in people with COPD, ischaemic heart disease, and those free from chronic cardiopulmonary diseases. Medication use might reduce the adverse effects of air pollution in individuals with ischaemic heart disease. Policies should aim to control ambient levels of air pollution along busy streets in view of these negative health effects.
 FUNDING British Heart Foundation.

title: Cancer after pre-eclampsia: follow up of the Jerusalem perinatal study cohort.

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OBJECTIVE To compare the incidence of cancer among women with and without a history of pre-eclampsia.
 DESIGN Cohort study.
 SETTING Jerusalem perinatal study of women who delivered in three large hospitals in West Jerusalem during 1964-76.
 PARTICIPANTS 37 033 women.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age adjusted and multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for cancer incidence for the entire cohort and for women who were primiparous at study entry.
 RESULTS Cancer developed in 91 women who had pre-eclampsia and 2204 who did not (hazard ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.57). The risk of site specific cancers was increased, particularly of the stomach, ovary epithelium, breast, and lung or larynx. The incidence of cancer of the stomach, breast, ovary, kidney, and lung or larynx was increased in primiparous women at study entry who had a history pre-eclampsia.
 CONCLUSIONS A history of pre-eclampsia is associated with increases in overall risk of cancer and incidence at several sites. This may be explained by environmental and genetic factors common to the development of pre-eclampsia and cancer in this population.

title: Physician knowledge levels and barriers to coronary risk prevention in women: survey results from the Women and Heart Disease Physician Education Initiative.

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BACKGROUND Few studies have examined whether physician knowledge, attitudes, or practice patterns might contribute to gender disparities in the primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), including among physicians caring for the largest number of reproductive-age women, obstetricians and gynecologists (OB/GYNs). We sought to identify barriers affecting the provision of recommended coronary risk factor therapies in women.
 METHODS We surveyed internists and OB/GYNs who attended Grand Rounds presentations developed for the New York State Women and Heart Disease Physician Education Initiative. This program was designed to improve screening and management of coronary risk factors in women. Attendees were asked to complete a 7-minute questionnaire.
 RESULTS The mean age of the 529 respondents was 40.3 years (standard deviation = 12.3), 75.1% were internists (n=378), and 42.7% (n=226) were women. Physicians correctly responded to 71.5% of the 13 questions assessing knowledge of coronary risk prevention (range, 4-13). Almost one third of internists and half of the OB/GYNs did not know that tobacco use was the leading cause of myocardial infarction in young women. For patients who smoked tobacco, only two thirds of internists and 55.4% of OB/GYNs reported suggesting a quit date (p=.007). After controlling for covariates, physicians who did not perceive time as a barrier were more likely to discuss smoking cessation (odds ratio=1.7 [1.1-2.7]).
 CONCLUSIONS Among the internists and OB/GYNs surveyed, time was perceived as a barrier to implementing risk prevention. These physicians also underestimated the impact of tobacco use as a risk factor for CHD in young women. To lessen gender disparities in CHD prevention, both specialties need time-efficient educational programs that reflect specialty differences.

title: Increased Microerythrocyte Count in Homozygous α+-Thalassaemia Contributes to Protection against Severe Malarial Anaemia

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BACKGROUND The heritable haemoglobinopathy alpha(+)-thalassaemia is caused by the reduced synthesis of alpha-globin chains that form part of normal adult haemoglobin (Hb). Individuals homozygous for alpha(+)-thalassaemia have microcytosis and an increased erythrocyte count. Alpha(+)-thalassaemia homozygosity confers considerable protection against severe malaria, including severe malarial anaemia (SMA) (Hb concentration < 50 g/l), but does not influence parasite count. We tested the hypothesis that the erythrocyte indices associated with alpha(+)-thalassaemia homozygosity provide a haematological benefit during acute malaria.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from children living on the north coast of Papua New Guinea who had participated in a case-control study of the protection afforded by alpha(+)-thalassaemia against severe malaria were reanalysed to assess the genotype-specific reduction in erythrocyte count and Hb levels associated with acute malarial disease. We observed a reduction in median erythrocyte count of approximately 1.5 x 10(12)/l in all children with acute falciparum malaria relative to values in community children (p < 0.001). We developed a simple mathematical model of the linear relationship between Hb concentration and erythrocyte count. This model predicted that children homozygous for alpha(+)-thalassaemia lose less Hb than children of normal genotype for a reduction in erythrocyte count of >1.1 x 10(12)/l as a result of the reduced mean cell Hb in homozygous alpha(+)-thalassaemia. In addition, children homozygous for alpha(+)-thalassaemia require a 10% greater reduction in erythrocyte count than children of normal genotype (p = 0.02) for Hb concentration to fall to 50 g/l, the cutoff for SMA. We estimated that the haematological profile in children homozygous for alpha(+)-thalassaemia reduces the risk of SMA during acute malaria compared to children of normal genotype (relative risk 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-1.12, p = 0.09).
 CONCLUSIONS The increased erythrocyte count and microcytosis in children homozygous for alpha(+)-thalassaemia may contribute substantially to their protection against SMA. A lower concentration of Hb per erythrocyte and a larger population of erythrocytes may be a biologically advantageous strategy against the significant reduction in erythrocyte count that occurs during acute infection with the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. This haematological profile may reduce the risk of anaemia by other Plasmodium species, as well as other causes of anaemia. Other host polymorphisms that induce an increased erythrocyte count and microcytosis may confer a similar advantage.

title: Combined Impact of Lifestyle-Related Factors on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality among Chinese Women: Prospective Cohort Study

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BACKGROUND Although cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, obesity, and several other well-studied unhealthy lifestyle-related factors each have been linked to the risk of multiple chronic diseases and premature death, little is known about the combined impact on mortality outcomes, in particular among Chinese and other non-Western populations. The objective of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors beyond that of active cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese women.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We used data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in China. Participants included 71,243 women aged 40 to 70 years enrolled during 1996-2000 who never smoked or drank alcohol regularly. A healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of five lifestyle-related factors shown to be independently associated with mortality outcomes (normal weight, lower waist-hip ratio, daily exercise, never exposed to spouse's smoking, higher daily fruit and vegetable intake). The score ranged from zero (least healthy) to five (most healthy) points. During an average follow-up of 9 years, 2,860 deaths occurred, including 775 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 1,351 from cancer. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality decreased progressively with an increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to women with a score of zero, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for women with four to five factors were 0.57 (0.44-0.74) for total mortality, 0.29 (0.16-0.54) for CVD mortality, and 0.76 (0.54-1.06) for cancer mortality. The inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and mortality was seen consistently regardless of chronic disease status at baseline. The population attributable risks for not having 4-5 healthy lifestyle factors were 33% for total deaths, 59% for CVD deaths, and 19% for cancer deaths.
 CONCLUSIONS In this first study, to our knowledge, to quantify the combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on mortality outcomes in Chinese women, a healthier lifestyle pattern-including being of normal weight, lower central adiposity, participation in physical activity, nonexposure to spousal smoking, and higher fruit and vegetable intake-was associated with reductions in total and cause-specific mortality among lifetime nonsmoking and nondrinking women, supporting the importance of overall lifestyle modification in disease prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

title: Vitamins E and C in the prevention of prostate and total cancer in men: the Physicians' Health Study II randomized controlled trial.

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CONTEXT Many individuals take vitamins in the hopes of preventing chronic diseases such as cancer, and vitamins E and C are among the most common individual supplements. A large-scale randomized trial suggested that vitamin E may reduce risk of prostate cancer; however, few trials have been powered to address this relationship. No previous trial in men at usual risk has examined vitamin C alone in the prevention of cancer.
 OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether long-term vitamin E or C supplementation decreases risk of prostate and total cancer events among men.
 DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Physicians' Health Study II is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled factorial trial of vitamins E and C that began in 1997 and continued until its scheduled completion on August 31, 2007. A total of 14,641 male physicians in the United States initially aged 50 years or older, including 1307 men with a history of prior cancer at randomization, were enrolled.
 INTERVENTION Individual supplements of 400 IU of vitamin E every other day and 500 mg of vitamin C daily.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prostate and total cancer.
 RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 8.0 years, there were 1008 confirmed incident cases of prostate cancer and 1943 total cancers. Compared with placebo, vitamin E had no effect on the incidence of prostate cancer (active and placebo vitamin E groups, 9.1 and 9.5 events per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.09; P = .58) or total cancer (active and placebo vitamin E groups, 17.8 and 17.3 cases per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.95-1.13; P = .41). There was also no significant effect of vitamin C on total cancer (active and placebo vitamin C groups, 17.6 and 17.5 events per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.92-1.10; P = .86) or prostate cancer (active and placebo vitamin C groups, 9.4 and 9.2 cases per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.90-1.15; P = .80). Neither vitamin E nor vitamin C had a significant effect on colorectal, lung, or other site-specific cancers. Adjustment for adherence and exclusion of the first 4 or 6 years of follow-up did not alter the results. Stratification by various cancer risk factors demonstrated no significant modification of the effect of vitamin E on prostate cancer risk or either agent on total cancer risk.
 CONCLUSIONS In this large, long-term trial of male physicians, neither vitamin E nor C supplementation reduced the risk of prostate or total cancer. These data provide no support for the use of these supplements for the prevention of cancer in middle-aged and older men.
 TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00270647.

title: Combined Impact of Health Behaviours and Mortality in Men and Women: The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study

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BACKGROUND There is overwhelming evidence that behavioural factors influence health, but their combined impact on the general population is less well documented. We aimed to quantify the potential combined impact of four health behaviours on mortality in men and women living in the general community.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS We examined the prospective relationship between lifestyle and mortality in a prospective population study of 20,244 men and women aged 45-79 y with no known cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline survey in 1993-1997, living in the general community in the United Kingdom, and followed up to 2006. Participants scored one point for each health behaviour: current non-smoking, not physically inactive, moderate alcohol intake (1-14 units a week) and plasma vitamin C >50 mmol/l indicating fruit and vegetable intake of at least five servings a day, for a total score ranging from zero to four. After an average 11 y follow-up, the age-, sex-, body mass-, and social class-adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality(1,987 deaths) for men and women who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were respectively, 1.39 (1.21-1.60), 1.95 (1.70--2.25), 2.52 (2.13-3.00), and 4.04 (2.95-5.54) p < 0.001 trend. The relationships were consistent in subgroups stratified by sex, age, body mass index, and social class, and after excluding deaths within 2 y. The trends were strongest for cardiovascular causes. The mortality risk for those with four compared to zero health behaviours was equivalent to being 14 y younger in chronological age.
 CONCLUSIONS Four health behaviours combined predict a 4-fold difference in total mortality in men and women, with an estimated impact equivalent to 14 y in chronological age.

title: Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies.

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BACKGROUND The main associations of body-mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. The Prospective Studies Collaboration aimed to investigate these associations by sharing data from many studies.
 METHODS Collaborative analyses were undertaken of baseline BMI versus mortality in 57 prospective studies with 894 576 participants, mostly in western Europe and North America (61% [n=541 452] male, mean recruitment age 46 [SD 11] years, median recruitment year 1979 [IQR 1975-85], mean BMI 25 [SD 4] kg/m(2)). The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and study. To limit reverse causality, the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded, leaving 66 552 deaths of known cause during a mean of 8 (SD 6) further years of follow-up (mean age at death 67 [SD 10] years): 30 416 vascular; 2070 diabetic, renal or hepatic; 22 592 neoplastic; 3770 respiratory; 7704 other.
 FINDINGS In both sexes, mortality was lowest at about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). Above this range, positive associations were recorded for several specific causes and inverse associations for none, the absolute excess risks for higher BMI and smoking were roughly additive, and each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was on average associated with about 30% higher overall mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg/m(2) [HR] 1.29 [95% CI 1.27-1.32]): 40% for vascular mortality (HR 1.41 [1.37-1.45]); 60-120% for diabetic, renal, and hepatic mortality (HRs 2.16 [1.89-2.46], 1.59 [1.27-1.99], and 1.82 [1.59-2.09], respectively); 10% for neoplastic mortality (HR 1.10 [1.06-1.15]); and 20% for respiratory and for all other mortality (HRs 1.20 [1.07-1.34] and 1.20 [1.16-1.25], respectively). Below the range 22.5-25 kg/m(2), BMI was associated inversely with overall mortality, mainly because of strong inverse associations with respiratory disease and lung cancer. These inverse associations were much stronger for smokers than for non-smokers, despite cigarette consumption per smoker varying little with BMI.
 INTERPRETATION Although other anthropometric measures (eg, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) could well add extra information to BMI, and BMI to them, BMI is in itself a strong predictor of overall mortality both above and below the apparent optimum of about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). The progressive excess mortality above this range is due mainly to vascular disease and is probably largely causal. At 30-35 kg/m(2), median survival is reduced by 2-4 years; at 40-45 kg/m(2), it is reduced by 8-10 years (which is comparable with the effects of smoking). The definite excess mortality below 22.5 kg/m(2) is due mainly to smoking-related diseases, and is not fully explained.

title: Wedelolactone protects human bronchial epithelial cell injury against cigarette smoke extract-induced oxidant stress and inflammation responses through Nrf2 pathway.

text: Cigarette smoke is the leading cause of the development of various lung diseases including lung cancer through triggering oxidant stress and inflammatory responses which contributed to the lesions of normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell. Wedelolactone (WEL), a natural compound from Eclipta prostrata L., has been found to possess the inhibitive effects on the proliferation and growth of cancers. In the present study, we investigated the effects of WEL on NHBE cell injury induced by cigarette smoke extract (CSE) in vitro. It showed that the pretreatment WEL (2.5-20μM) resulted in a significant protective effect on 10% CSE-induced cell death in NHBE cells. The pretreatment with WEL dose-dependently and significantly reversed the activities of SOD, CAT, GSH and the level of MDA to normal level. We also found that the protein expression levels of COX-2 and ICAM-1 which are related to inflammatory response were remarkably reduced by WEL compared with 10% CSE treatment. Additionally, WEL also reduced the expressions of antioxidases including NAD(P)H dehydrogenase:Quinone 1 (NQO1) and heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Moreover, Nrf2 inhibitor all-trans-retinoic acid (ATRA) decreased remarkably their expressions. These results suggest that WEL protects NHBE cell against CSE-induced injury through modulating Nrf2 pathway. Our study indicates that WEL may be a new potential protective agent against CSE-induced lung injury.

title: Social variations in access to hospital care for patients with colorectal, breast, and lung cancer between 1999 and 2006: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics

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OBJECTIVES To determine the extent to which type of hospital admission (emergency compared with elective) and surgical procedure varied by socioeconomic circumstances, age, sex, and year of admission for colorectal, breast, and lung cancer.
 DESIGN Repeated cross sectional study with data from individual patients, 1 April 1999 to 31 March 2006.
 SETTING Hospital episode statistics (HES) dataset.
 PARTICIPANTS 564 821 patients aged 50 and over admitted with a diagnosis of colorectal, breast, or lung cancer.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Proportion of patients admitted as emergencies, and the proportion receiving the recommended surgical treatment.
 RESULTS Patients from deprived areas, older people, and women were more likely to be admitted as emergencies. For example, the adjusted odds ratio for patients with breast cancer in the least compared with most deprived fifth of deprivation was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.66) and the adjusted odds ratio for patients with lung cancer aged 80-89 compared with those aged 50-59 was 3.13 (2.93 to 3.34). There were some improvements in disparities between age groups but not for patients living in deprived areas over time. Patients from deprived areas were less likely to receive preferred procedures for rectal, breast, and lung cancer. These findings did not improve with time. For example, 67.4% (3529/5237) of patients in the most deprived fifth of deprivation had anterior resection for rectal cancer compared with 75.5% (4497/5959) of patients in the least deprived fifth (1.34, 1.22 to 1.47). Over half (54.0%, 11 256/20 849) of patients in the most deprived fifth of deprivation had breast conserving surgery compared with 63.7% (18 445/28 960) of patients in the least deprived fifth (1.21, 1.16 to 1.26). Men were less likely than women to undergo anterior resection and lung cancer resection and older people were less likely to receive breast conserving surgery and lung cancer resection. For example, the adjusted odds ratio for lung cancer patients aged 80-89 compared with those aged 50-59 was 0.52 (0.46 to 0.59). Conclusions Despite the implementation of the NHS Cancer Plan, social factors still strongly influence access to and the provision of care.

title: Clinical benefits and considerations of bisphosphonate treatment in metastatic bone disease.

text: Patients with metastatic bone disease are at risk for developing skeletal-related events that can negatively influence quality of life, contributing to loss of autonomy and functional capabilities. Bisphosphonates have become an important component in the treatment of patients with bone metastases as they delay the onset and reduce the risk of skeletal-related events and also palliate or control bone pain in multiple cancer types, thus preserving quality of life. Zoledronic acid has proven efficacy and safety in patients with bone lesions from breast cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and other solid tumors, as well as in patients with multiple myeloma. Current data suggest that early treatment with zoledronic acid (before the onset of bone pain) may provide additional clinical benefits and also positive effects on survival in subsets of patients who have elevated levels of N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTX), a biochemical marker of bone resorption. Studies have shown that in patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, or other solid tumors, normalization of elevated levels of NTX was observed in the majority of patients who received zoledronic acid. Furthermore, normalization of NTX values correlated with extended survival.

title: Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know.

text: High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

title: Pathology of postprimary tuberculosis in humans and mice: contradiction of long-held beliefs.

text: Tuberculosis remains one of the world's leading infectious causes of death. Approximately 80% of all disease is due to postprimary (secondary) tuberculosis in the lung. Unfortunately, tissues of developing lesions are seldom available and there are no recognized models of postprimary tuberculosis. In the preantibiotic era when tissues were more abundant, several investigators described early postprimary tuberculosis as a lipid pneumonia quite different from the caseating granulomas commonly described today. We used histopathologic, immunohistochemical and acid fast stains to examine tissues from several people with untreated primary and postprimary tuberculosis and compared the findings with those of mice with reactivation tuberculosis. The results confirmed that developing postprimary tuberculosis begins as a lipid pneumonia accompanied by bronchial obstruction in which infection is restricted to foamy alveolar macrophages. Cavities result from a combination of caseation of tuberculous pneumonia and microvascular occlusion characteristic of delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH). Reactivation tuberculosis in the mouse begins as a similar tuberculous lipid pneumonia with bronchial obstruction and evidence for participation of DTH. Developing necrosis in both species is associated with localization of organisms within lipid droplets. These results suggest that reactivation tuberculosis in mice is a valuable model of developing human postprimary tuberculosis.


query: Patients in stable partnerships have a slower progression from HIV to AIDS.

title: Stable partnership and progression to AIDS or death in HIV infected patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV cohort study.

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OBJECTIVES To explore the association between a stable partnership and clinical outcome in HIV infected patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).
 DESIGN Prospective cohort study of adults with HIV (Swiss HIV cohort study).
 SETTING Seven outpatient clinics throughout Switzerland.
 PARTICIPANTS The 3736 patients in the cohort who started HAART before 2002 (median age 36 years, 29% female, median follow up 3.6 years).
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Time to AIDS or death (primary endpoint), death alone, increases in CD4 cell count of at least 50 and 100 above baseline, optimal viral suppression (a viral load below 400 copies/ml), and viral rebound.
 RESULTS During follow up 2985 (80%) participants reported a stable partnership on at least one occasion. When starting HAART, 52% (545/1042) of participants reported a stable partnership; after five years of follow up 46% (190/412) of participants reported a stable partnership. In an analysis stratified by previous antiretroviral therapy and clinical stage when starting HAART (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention group A, B, or C), the adjusted hazard ratio for progression to AIDS or death was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.98) for participants with a stable partnership compared with those without. Adjusted hazards ratios for other endpoints were 0.59 (0.44 to 0.79) for progression to death, 1.15 (1.06 to 1.24) for an increase in CD4 cells of 100 counts/microl or more, and 1.06 (0.98 to 1.14) for optimal viral suppression.
 CONCLUSIONS A stable partnership is associated with a slower rate of progression to AIDS or death in HIV infected patients receiving HAART.

title: Immunophenotypic analysis of AIDS-related diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and clinical implications in patients from AIDS malignancies consortium clinical trials 010 and 034

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PURPOSE Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) represents a clinically heterogeneous disease. Models based on immunohistochemistry predict clinical outcome. These include subdivision into germinal center (GC) versus non-GC subtypes; proliferation index (measured by expression of Ki-67), and expression of BCL-2, FOXP1, or B-lymphocyte-induced maturation protein (Blimp-1)/PRDM1. We sought to determine whether immunohistochemical analyses of biopsies from patients with DLBCL having HIV infection are similarly relevant for prognosis.
 PATIENTS AND METHODS We examined 81 DLBCLs from patients with AIDS in AMC010 (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone [CHOP] v CHOP-rituximab) and AMC034 (etoposide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone, and dose-adjusted cyclophosphamide plus rituximab concurrent v sequential) clinical trials and compared the immunophenotype with survival data, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) positivity, and CD4 counts.
 RESULTS The GC and non-GC subtypes of DLBCL did not differ significantly with respect to overall survival or CD4 count at cancer presentation. EBV could be found in both subtypes of DLBCL, although less frequently in the GC subtype, and did not affect survival. Expression of FOXP1, Blimp-1/PRDM1, or BCL-2 was not correlated with the outcome in patients with AIDS-related DLBCL.
 CONCLUSION These data indicate that with current treatment strategies for lymphoma and control of HIV infection, commonly used immunohistochemical markers may not be clinically relevant in HIV-infected patients with DLBCL. The only predictive immunohistochemical marker was found to be Ki-67, where a higher proliferation index was associated with better survival, suggesting a better response to therapy in patients whose tumors had higher proliferation rates.

title: Apoptosis occurs predominantly in bystander cells and not in productively infected cells of HIV- and SIV-infected lymph nodes

text: Although 13 years have passed since identification of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) as the cause of AIDS, we do not yet know how HIV kills its primary target, the T cell that carries the CD4 antigen. We and others have shown an increase in the percentage of apoptotic cells among circulating CD4+ (and CD8+) T cells of HIV-seropositive individuals and an increase in frequency of apoptosis with disease progression. However, it is not known if this apoptosis occurs in infected or uninfected T cells. We show here, using in situ labelling of lymph nodes from HIV-infected children and SIV-infected macaques, that apoptosis occurs predominantly in bystander cells and not in the productively infected cells themselves. These data have implications for pathogenesis and therapy, namely, arguing that rational drug therapy may involve combination agents targeting viral replication in infected cells and apoptosis of uninfected cells.

title: Hepatitis B and C in HIV-infected patients. Prevalence and prognostic value.

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BACKGROUND/AIMS There is only limited information on the prevalence and influence of coinfection with either hepatitis B or C on the clinical course in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).
 METHODS Follow-up was available in 232 HIV-infected patients (age 37+/-8 years, CD4 count 167+/-167 microl; 46% had AIDS). Samples were investigated for markers of HBV and HCV infection (HBsAg, HBeAg, HBV-DNA, Anti-HBs, anti-HBc, anti-HCV, HCV-RNA).
 RESULTS 60/232 patients (23%) were anti-HCV positive. 78% of these sera were positive for HCV-RNA. 22/232 patients (9%) suffered from chronic HBV infection (HBsAg positive), 18/22 (82%) of these sera had detectable HBeAg and 19/22 (86%) HBV-DNA. Presence of HCV-RNA, HBeAg and amount of HBV-DNA were related to the degree of immunodeficiency. In contrast to the control group without HBV or HCV infection, patients infected with HIV and either HBV or HCV showed a direct correlation between a reduction in CD4 counts and decreased cholinesterase activity. In patients with AIDS, coinfection with HBV or HCV was associated with a reduced survival compared to controls (HBV: 212 days, 95%CI, 106-317; HCV: 267, 95%CI, 112-396; controls: 439 days, 95%CI, 364-513).
 CONCLUSIONS Coinfection of HIV and HBV or HCV is frequently observed. Our results suggest that with prolonged survival of HIV-infected patients, coinfection with either HBV or HCV correlates with a reduced survival rate.

title: Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus/human herpesvirus type 8-positive solid lymphomas: a tissue-based variant of primary effusion lymphoma.

text: Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), also termed human herpesvirus type 8, is consistently identified in Kaposi's sarcoma, primary effusion lymphoma (PEL), and multicentric Castleman's disease. Here we report four cases of KSHV-bearing solid lymphomas that occurred in AIDS patients (cases 1 to 3) and in a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seronegative person (case 4). The patients presented extranodal masses in the abdomen (cases 1, 3, and 4) or skin (case 2), and nodal involvement, together with Kaposi's sarcoma (case 3). The gastrointestinal tract was involved in two patients (cases 1 and 3). The patients did not develop a lymphomatous effusion. KSHV was detected in the tumor cells of all cases by immunohistochemistry and by polymerase chain reaction. Epstein-Barr virus was detected in two of the HIV-related cases. All KSHV-positive solid lymphomas exhibited PEL-like cell morphology. To investigate the relationship of these disorders to PEL and to other AIDS-associated diffuse large cell lymphomas, KSHV-positive solid lymphomas were tested for the expression of a set of genes that were previously shown by gene profiling analysis to define PEL tumor cells. The results showed that expression of this set of genes in KSHV-positive lymphomas is similar to that of PEL but distinct from KSHV-negative AIDS-associated diffuse large cell lymphomas. Because pathobiological features of KSHV-positive solid lymphomas closely mimic those of PEL, our results suggest that KSHV-positive solid lymphomas should be considered as a tissue-based variant of classical PEL, irrespective of HIV status.

title: BLM helicase facilitates telomere replication during leading strand synthesis of telomeres

text: Based on its in vitro unwinding activity on G-quadruplex (G4) DNA, the Bloom syndrome-associated helicase BLM is proposed to participate in telomere replication by aiding fork progression through G-rich telomeric DNA. Single molecule analysis of replicated DNA (SMARD) was used to determine the contribution of BLM helicase to telomere replication. In BLM-deficient cells, replication forks initiating from origins within the telomere, which copy the G-rich strand by leading strand synthesis, moved slower through the telomere compared with the adjacent subtelomere. Fork progression through the telomere was further slowed in the presence of a G4 stabilizer. Using a G4-specific antibody, we found that deficiency of BLM, or another G4-unwinding helicase, the Werner syndrome-associated helicase WRN, resulted in increased G4 structures in cells. Importantly, deficiency of either helicase led to greater increases in G4 DNA detected in the telomere compared with G4 seen genome-wide. Collectively, our findings are consistent with BLM helicase facilitating telomere replication by resolving G4 structures formed during copying of the G-rich strand by leading strand synthesis.

title: Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS.

text: Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative effects. We propose a strategic investment framework that is intended to support better management of national and international HIV/AIDS responses than exists with the present system. Our framework incorporates major efficiency gains through community mobilisation, synergies between programme elements, and benefits of the extension of antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission. It proposes three categories of investment, consisting of six basic programmatic activities, interventions that create an enabling environment to achieve maximum effectiveness, and programmatic efforts in other health and development sectors related to HIV/AIDS. The yearly cost of achievement of universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support by 2015 is estimated at no less than US$22 billion. Implementation of the new investment framework would avert 12·2 million new HIV infections and 7·4 million deaths from AIDS between 2011 and 2020 compared with continuation of present approaches, and result in 29·4 million life-years gained. The framework is cost effective at $1060 per life-year gained, and the additional investment proposed would be largely offset from savings in treatment costs alone.

title: Integrating nutrition security with treatment of people living with HIV: lessons from Kenya.

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BACKGROUND The increased caloric requirements of HIV-positive individuals, undesirable side effects of treatment that may be worsened by malnutrition (but alleviated by nutritional support), and associated declines in adherence and possible increased drug resistance are all justifications for developing better interventions to strengthen the nutrition security of individuals receiving antiretroviral treatment.
 OBJECTIVE To highlight key benefits and challenges relating to interventions aimed at strengthening the nutrition security of people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral treatment.
 METHODS Qualitative research was undertaken on a short-term nutrition intervention linked to the provision of free antiretroviral treatment for people living with HIV in western Kenya in late 2005 and early 2006.
 RESULTS Patients enrolled in the food program while on treatment regimens self-reported greater adherence to their medication, fewer side effects, and a greater ability to satisfy increased appetite. Most clients self-reported weight gain, recovery of physical strength, and the resumption of labor activities while enrolled in dual (food supplementation and treatment) programs. Such improvements were seen to catalyze increased support from family and community.
 CONCLUSIONS These findings provide further empirical support to calls for a more holistic and comprehensive response to the coexistence of AIDS epidemics with chronic nutrition insecurity. Future work is needed to clarify ways of bridging the gap between short-term nutritional support to individuals and longer-term livelihood security programming for communities affected by AIDS. Such interdisciplinary research will need to be matched by intersectoral action on the part of the agriculture and health sectors in such environments.

title: HIV seropositivity and tuberculosis in a large general hospital in Malawi.

text: The incidence of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Malawi is one of the highest in Central Africa. Since tuberculosis is an important initial manifestations of the disease, consecutive patients admitted to the tuberculosis (TB) wards of Zomba General Hospital, Malawi, were asked for permission to undergo a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-antibodies test. In addition, two other studies were done: from September 1986 all medical in-patients, clinically suspected for immune deficiency and from April 1988 all blood donors were tested for HIV seropositivity. Seventy-five percent of the TB patients volunteered; 32 out of 125 (26%) were seropositive. In the high-risk age groups (20-40 years) this percentage rose to 32. Among the medical in-patients suspected of immune deficiency the seropositivity rose sharply from April 1987 to October 1988. Among the blood donors tested, 20% were seropositive.

title: Immune Activation with HIV Vaccines

text: The development of a safe and effective HIV vaccine is perhaps the most important and challenging goal remaining in HIV-AIDS research. Recent progress using a poxvirus vector prime and envelope protein boost strategy demonstrated a modest but statistically significant level of efficacy and established the concept that a vaccine could prevent HIV infection (1), and approaches to boost durability and efficacy are currently in the planning stages (2). But the results of two vaccine concepts based on recombinant adenovirus serotype-5 (rAd5) (3–5) pointed to a potential major problem—that such vaccines might increase susceptibility to HIV infection. This also raised the question of whether the problem extends to some or all of the other recombinant adenovirus vectors currently in development or to other vector-based vaccines.

title: The history of SIVS and AIDS: epidemiology, phylogeny and biology of isolates from naturally SIV infected non-human primates (NHP) in Africa.

text: Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) naturally infects non-human primates in Africa. To date, 40 SIVs have been described both in natural hosts and in heterologous species. These viruses are highly diverse and the majority cluster in 6 relatively equidistant phylogenetic lineages. At least 8 SIVs are currently considered as recombinant viruses, based on different clustering patterns in different genomic regions. Only three types of genomes are known, based on the number of accessory genes: vpr-containing genomes, vpr-vpx containing genomes and vpr-vpu-containing genomes. vpx resulted by a duplication of the vpr gene following non-homologous recombination and is characteristic of SIVs infecting the Papionini tribe of monkeys and HIV-2 in humans. vpu is characteristic of SIVcpz and HIV-1 and may have originated from a recombination involving SIVs from cercopitecini monkeys. SIV seems to be non-pathogenic in the vast majority of natural hosts in spite of a high levels of viral replication. This is probably a consequence of virus-host adaptation, in which the incubation period of the disease generally exceeds the life span of the African primate host. SIVs also have a high propensity for cross-species transmission. In the new host, the outcome may vary from inapparent infection to highly pathogenic, the former being reported for African monkeys, whereas the latter being observed in macaques and humans. The high diversity of SIVs was generated by a high mutation rate due to a low fidelity of the reverse-transcriptase and active viral and host cell turnover, host-dependent evolution and recombination. Cross-species transmission is not rare, however preferential host switching may drive the majority of cross-species transmissions. Numerous SIVs tested so far are able to grow in vitro on human PBMC, therefore it has been postulated that SIV represents a threat for infection of humans in Central Africa and that AIDS is a zoonosis. However, although the simian origin of the two HIV types is broadly acknowledged, there are no data that AIDS is acquired like a zoonosis. SIV may undergo adaptation in the new human host in order to emerge in the general population. The study of SIV in their natural hosts should provide important clues to the real threat to human populations and also elucidate the mechanisms associated with a long-term persistent viral infection without clinical consequences for the host.

title: N348I in the Connection Domain of HIV-1 Reverse Transcriptase Confers Zidovudine and Nevirapine Resistance

text: Background The catalytically active 66-kDa subunit of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) consists of DNA polymerase, connection, and ribonuclease H (RNase H) domains. Almost all known RT inhibitor resistance mutations identified to date map to the polymerase domain of the enzyme. However, the connection and RNase H domains are not routinely analysed in clinical samples and none of the genotyping assays available for patient management sequence the entire RT coding region. The British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS (the Centre) genotypes clinical isolates up to codon 400 in RT, and our retrospective statistical analyses of the Centre’s database have identified an N348I mutation in the RT connection domain in treatment-experienced individuals. The objective of this multidisciplinary study was to establish the in vivo relevance of this mutation and its role in drug resistance. Methods and Findings The prevalence of N348I in clinical isolates, the time taken for it to emerge under selective drug pressure, and its association with changes in viral load, specific drug treatment, and known drug resistance mutations was analysed from genotypes, viral loads, and treatment histories from the Centre’s database. N348I increased in prevalence from below 1% in 368 treatmentnao ¨ve individuals to 12.1% in 1,009 treatment-experienced patients (p ¼ 7.7 3 10 � 12 ). N348I appeared early in therapy and was highly associated with thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) M41L and T215Y/F (p , 0.001), the lamivudine resistance mutations M184V/I (p , 0.001), and non-nucleoside RTI (NNRTI) resistance mutations K103N and Y181C/I (p , 0.001). The association with TAMs and NNRTI resistance mutations was consistent with the selection of N348I in patients treated with regimens that included both zidovudine and nevirapine (odds ratio 2.62, 95% confidence interval 1.43–4.81). The appearance of N348I was associated with a significant increase in viral load (p , 0.001), which was as large as the viral load increases observed for any of the TAMs. However, this analysis did not account for the simultaneous selection of other RT or protease inhibitor resistance mutations on viral load. To delineate the role of this mutation in RT inhibitor resistance, N348I was introduced into HIV-1 molecular clones containing different genetic backbones. N348I decreased zidovudine susceptibility 2- to 4-fold in the context of wildtype HIV-1 or when combined with TAMs. N348I also decreased susceptibility to nevirapine (7.4fold) and efavirenz (2.5-fold) and significantly potentiated resistance to these drugs when combined with K103N. Biochemical analyses of recombinant RT containing N348I provide supporting evidence for the role of this mutation in zidovudine and NNRTI resistance and give some insight into the molecular mechanism of resistance. Conclusions

title: Caregiver burden in HIV-positive and HIV-negative partners of men with AIDS.

text: This study examines factors associated with caregiver burden in 82 HIV-positive (HIV+) and 162 HIV-negative (HIV-) partners of men with AIDS. We expected HIV+ caregivers to report more burden than HIV- caregivers because of the toll of their disease on their resources. HIV+ caregivers did report more burden and, compared with the HIV- caregivers, they were more religious or spiritual, had less income, and coped by using more positive reappraisal and cognitive escape-avoidance and by seeking social support. Comparisons of HIV+ caregivers with 61 HIV+ partners of healthy men indicated that most differences between HIV+ and HIV- caregivers were associated with HIV seropositivity rather than caregiving. However, of the variables associated with HIV seropositivity, only religiosity or spirituality contributed independently to burden in HIV+ caregivers, suggesting a relatively weak link between HIV seropositivity and caregiver burden. The model explained 62% of the variance in burden in HIV+ caregivers and 36% of the variance in HIV- caregivers.

title: Late presentation of HIV-infected individuals.

text: Late presentation remains a major concern despite the dramatically improved prognosis realized by ART. We define a first presentation for HIV care during the course of HIV infection as 'late' if an AIDS-defining opportunistic disease is apparent, or if CD4+ T-cells are <200/microl. In the Western world, approximately 10 and 30% of HIV-infected individuals still present with CD4+ T-cells <50 and <200/microl, respectively; estimates are substantially higher for developing countries. Diagnosis and treatment of opportunistic diseases and intense supportive in-hospital care take precedence over ART. Benefits of starting ART without delay, that is, when opportunistic diseases are still active, include faster resolution of opportunistic diseases and a decreased risk of recurrence. The downside of starting ART without delay could include toxicity, drug interactions and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). Among asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic individuals presenting late, where ART and primary prophylaxis are initiated, approximately 10-20% will become symptomatic from drug toxicity or undiagnosed opportunistic complications, including IRIS, which require appropriate therapies. In this review we describe late presentation to HIV care, the scale of the problem, the evaluation of a late-presenting patient and challenges associated with initiation of potent antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the setting of acute opportunistic infections and other comorbidities.

title: Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model.

text:
BACKGROUND Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination.
 METHODS We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual.
 FINDINGS The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US$1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease.
 INTERPRETATION Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.

title: Impact of human immunodeficiency virus infection on the histological features of chronic hepatitis C: a case-control study. The MULTIVIRC group.

text: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is frequently encountered in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients because of common routes of transmission. Previous studies suggested that HIV infection impaired the natural course of chronic hepatitis C, with a more rapid progression to cirrhosis. However, these studies did not assess the HIV infection impact on chronic hepatitis C by taking into account the risk factors for liver fibrosis progression: alcohol, sex, age at the contamination, and duration of HCV infection. We studied liver biopsy specimens of 2 groups of 58 patients that were infected by both HCV and HIV or by HCV alone. The 2 groups were matched according those risk factors, and liver biopsy responses were evaluated with the METAVIR items. The METAVIR activity was higher in HIV-positive than HIV-negative patients. Cirrhosis was more frequent: (1) in HIV-positive patients with CD4 < or = 200 cells/microL (45%) than in HIV-negative patients (10%) (P = .003), (2) in HIV-positive patients with CD4 < or = 200 cells/microL (45%) than in HIV-positive patients with CD4 > 200 cells/microL (17%) (P = .04). These differences, which were linked to HIV status, might be related to the enhanced HCV replication during HIV infection or other immune mechanisms that need further studies.

title: The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

text:
BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.
 METHODS AND FINDINGS Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.
 CONCLUSIONS The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

title: Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study

text: Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors. Design Prospective open cohort study. Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database. Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline. Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records. Results 363 565 incident cases of cardiovascular disease were identified in the derivation cohort during follow-up arising from 50.8 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met the model inclusion criteria except for HIV/AIDS, which was not statistically significant. The models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the algorithm explained 59.6% of the variation in time to diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (R2, with higher values indicating more variation), and the D statistic was 2.48 and Harrell's C statistic was 0.88 (both measures of discrimination, with higher values indicating better discrimination). The corresponding values for men were 54.8%, 2.26, and 0.86. Overall performance of the updated QRISK3 algorithms was similar to the QRISK2 algorithms. Conclusion Updated QRISK3 risk prediction models were developed and validated. The inclusion of additional clinical variables in QRISK3 (chronic kidney disease, a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, SLE, atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and erectile dysfunction) can help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.

title: The financial cost of doctors emigrating from sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis

text:
OBJECTIVE To estimate the lost investment of domestically educated doctors migrating from sub-Saharan African countries to Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
 DESIGN Human capital cost analysis using publicly accessible data.
 SETTINGS Sub-Saharan African countries.
 PARTICIPANTS Nine sub-Saharan African countries with an HIV prevalence of 5% or greater or with more than one million people with HIV/AIDS and with at least one medical school (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and data available on the number of doctors practising in destination countries.
 MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The financial cost of educating a doctor (through primary, secondary, and medical school), assuming that migration occurred after graduation, using current country specific interest rates for savings converted to US dollars; cost according to the number of source country doctors currently working in the destination countries; and savings to destination countries of receiving trained doctors.
 RESULTS In the nine source countries the estimated government subsidised cost of a doctor's education ranged from $21,000 (£13,000; €15,000) in Uganda to $58,700 in South Africa. The overall estimated loss of returns from investment for all doctors currently working in the destination countries was $2.17bn (95% confidence interval 2.13bn to 2.21bn), with costs for each country ranging from $2.16m (1.55m to 2.78m) for Malawi to $1.41bn (1.38bn to 1.44bn) for South Africa. The ratio of the estimated compounded lost investment over gross domestic product showed that Zimbabwe and South Africa had the largest losses. The benefit to destination countries of recruiting trained doctors was largest for the United Kingdom ($2.7bn) and United States ($846m).
 CONCLUSIONS Among sub-Saharan African countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, lost investment from the emigration of doctors is considerable. Destination countries should consider investing in measurable training for source countries and strengthening of their health systems.

title: Concentrations of tenofovir and emtricitabine in saliva: implications for preexposure prophylaxis of oral HIV acquisition.

text: To prevent acquisition of HIV through oral sex, drugs used for preexposure prophylaxis (Prep) need to diffuse in saliva. We measured tenofovir (TFV) and emtricitabine (FTC) concentrations simultaneously in the plasma and saliva of 41 HIV-infected patients under stable antiretroviral treatment. Mean ratios of saliva/plasma concentration were 3% (±4%) and 86.9% (±124%) for TFV and FTC, respectively. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) should be used in combination with FTC to prevent oral acquisition of HIV.