title: Genetic risk factors for death with SARS-CoV-2 from the UK Biobank

text: We present here genetic risk factors for survivability from infection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). At the time of writing it is too early to determine comprehensively and without doubt all risk factors, but there is an urgency due to the global pandemic crisis that merits this early analysis. We have nonetheless discovered 5 novel risk variants in 4 genes, discovered by examining 193 deaths from 1,412 confirmed infections in a group of 5,871 UK Biobank participants tested for the virus. We also examine the distribution of these genetic variants across broad ethnic groups and compare it to data from the UK Office of National Statistics for increased risk of death from SARS-CoV-2. We confidently identify the gene ERAP2 with a high-risk variant, as well as three other genes of potential interest. Although mostly rare, a common theme of genetic risk factors affecting survival might be the inability to launch or modulate an effective immune and stress response to infection from the SARS-CoV-2 virus.


title: Epidemiological and Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Ten Patients from a Mid-sized City outside of Hubei, China

text: A novel coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we performed a comprehensive epidemiological and genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from ten patients in Shaoxing, a mid-sized city outside of the epicenter Hubei province, China, during the early stage of the outbreak (late January to early February, 2020). We obtained viral genomes with > 99% coverage and a mean depth of 296X demonstrating that viral genomic analysis is feasible via metagenomics sequencing directly on nasopharyngeal samples with SARS-CoV-2 Real-time PCR Ct values less than 28. We found that a cluster of 4 patients with travel history to Hubei shared the exact same virus with patients from Wuhan, Taiwan, Belgium and Australia, highlighting how quickly this virus spread to the globe. The virus from another cluster of husband and wife without travel history but with a sick contact of a confirmed case from another city outside of Hubei accumulated significantly more mutations (9 SNPs vs average 4 SNPs), suggesting a complex and dynamic nature of this outbreak. We also found 70% patients in this study had the S genotype, consistent with an early study showing a higher prevalence of S genotype out of Hubei than that inside Hubei. We calculated an average mutation rate of 1.37x10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year, which is similar to that of other coronaviruses. Our findings add to the growing knowledge of the epidemiological and genomic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 that are important for guiding outbreak containment and vaccine development. The moderate mutation rate of this virus also lends hope that development of an effective, long-lasting vaccine may be possible.


title: Factors affecting healthcare workers' compliance with social and behavioural infection control measures during emerging infectious disease outbreaks: Rapid evidence review.

text: The 2019-2020 outbreak of novel coronavirus has raised concerns about nosocomial transmission; that is, transmission within healthcare settings. Research from previous outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases suggests a major cause of nosocomial transmission is healthcare professionals' poor compliance with recommended personal protective behaviours. This rapid evidence review explored existing literature on emerging infectious disease outbreaks to identify factors associated with compliance with social and behavioural infection control measures among healthcare staff. 56 papers were reviewed and several positive associations were found: Staff working in emergency or intensive care settings appeared more likely to comply with recommendations than those in other settings, and there was some evidence that contact with confirmed cases could improve compliance. There was some evidence that staff with higher levels of anxiety and higher concern about the risk of infection were more likely to comply with recommended behaviour, and that monitoring from superiors could improve compliance. Several negative associations were also found. Observed non-compliance of colleagues could hinder compliance. Staff identified many barriers to compliance related to personal protective equipment, including availability; perceived difficulty and effectiveness; inconvenience; discomfort; and a negative impact on patient care. There appeared to be many issues regarding the communication and ease of understanding of infection control guidance. Based on the results of this review we recommend provision of training and education tailored for different occupational roles within the healthcare setting; managerial staff 'leading by example'; ensuring adequate resources for infection control; and timely provision of practical evidence-based infection control guidelines.


title: Managing the Covid-19 pandemic through individual responsibility: the consequences of a world risk society and enhanced ethopolitics

text: At the end of March 2020, international media present Swedish management of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic as soft and irresponsible. Thus, Sweden, which is usually regarded as exceptionally risk averse and cautious, has chosen an unexpected risk management approach. The aim of this article is to reflect on how the Swedish government has managed the Covid-19 pandemic until early April 2020 from two theoretical perspectives, the risk society thesis and governmentality theory. We make a brief review of how previous pandemics have been managed compared to Covid-19 and try to understand the consequences of the Swedish handling of present pandemic with a particular focus on the governance of the pandemic and the exercise of power rather than definite risk management strategies during the pandemic.


Ibuprofen and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection Are Synergistic on Cell Death


title: COVID-19 diagnosis prediction by symptoms of tested individuals: a machine learning approach

text: Effective screening of SARS-CoV-2 enables quick and efficient diagnosis of COVID-19 and can mitigate the burden on healthcare systems. Prediction models that combine several features to estimate the risk of infection have been developed in hopes of assisting medical staff worldwide in triaging patients when allocating limited healthcare resources. We established a machine learning approach that trained on records from 51,831 tested individuals (of whom 4,769 were confirmed COVID-19 cases) while the test set contained data from the following week (47,401 tested individuals of whom 3,624 were confirmed COVID-19 cases). Our model predicts COVID-19 test results with high accuracy using only 8 features: gender, whether the age is above 60, information about close contact with an infected individual, and 5 initial clinical symptoms. Overall, using nationwide data representing the general population, we developed a model that enables screening suspected COVID-19 patients according to simple features accessed by asking them basic questions. Our model can be used, among other considerations, to prioritize testing for COVID-19 when allocating limited testing resources.


title: A Comparative Study of Target Reconstruction of Ultra-High-Resolution CT for Patients with Corona-Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

text: Background: The corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a serious public health risk. Compared with conventional high-resolution CT (C-HRCT, matrix 512), ultra-high resolution CT (U-HRCT, matrix 1024) can increase the effective pixel per unit volume by about 4 times. Our study is to evaluate the value of target reconstruction of U-HRCT in the accurate diagnosis of COVID-19. Methods: A total of 13 COVID-19 cases, 44 cases of other pneumonias, and 6 cases of ground-glass nodules were retrospectively analyzed. The data were categorized into groups A (C-HRCT) and B (U-HRCT), following which iDose4-3 and iDose4-5 were used for target reconstruction, respectively. CT value, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in different reconstructed images were measured. Two senior imaging doctors scored the image quality and the structure of the lesions on a 5-point scale. Chi-square test, variance analysis, and binarylogistic regression analysis were used for statistical analysis. Results: U-HRCT image can reduce noise and improve SNR with an increase of the iterative reconstruction level. The SNR of U-HRCT image was lower than that of the C-HRCT image of the same iDose4level, and the noise of U-HRCT was higher than that of C-HRCT image; the difference was statistically significant (P< 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed thatperipleural distribution, thickening of blood vessels and interlobular septum, and crazy-paving pattern were independent indictors of the COVID-19 on U-HRCT. U-HRCT was superior to C-HRCT in showing the blood vessels, bronchial wall, and interlobular septum in the ground-glass opacities; the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusions:Peripleural distribution, thickening of blood vessels and interlobular septum, and crazy-paving pattern on U-HRCT are favorable signs for COVID-19. U-HRCT is superior to C-HRCT in displaying the blood vessels, bronchial walls, and interlobular septum for evaluating COVID-19. Keywords: U-HRCT, 1024 matrix, Target Reconstruction, COVID-19


title: Evidence of intraday multifractality in european stock markets during the recent coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak

text: This study assesses how the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) affects the intraday multifractal properties of eight European stock markets by using five-minute index data ranging from 1 January 2020 to 23 March 2020. The Hurst exponents are calculated by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). Overall, the results confirm the existence of multifractality in European stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, based on multifractal properties, efficiency varies among these markets. The Spanish stock market remains most efficient while the least efficient is that of Austria. Belgium, Italy and Germany remain somewhere in the middle. This far-reaching outbreak demands a comprehensive response from policy makers to improve market efficiency during such epidemics.


title: Preliminary epidemiological analysis on children and adolescents with novel coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei Province, China: an observational study utilizing crowdsourced data

text: Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to expand across the world. Though both the number of cases and mortality rate in children and adolescents is reported to be low in comparison to adults, limited data has been reported on the outbreak with respect to pediatric patients. To elucidate information, we utilized crowdsourced data to perform a preliminary epidemiologic analysis of pediatric patients with COVID-19 Methods: In this observational study, data was collected from two open-access, line list crowdsourced online databases. Pediatric cases of COVID-19 were defined as patients ≤19 years of age with a laboratory confirmed diagnosis. The primary outcomes were case counts and cumulative case counts. Secondary outcomes included days between symptoms onset and first medical care and days between first medical care and reporting. Tertiary outcomes were rate of travel to Wuhan, rate of infected family members and rates of symptoms. Results: A total of 82 patients were included. The median age was 10 [IQR: 5-15] years. Patients from mainland China (outside Hubei) accounted for 46.3% of cases, while the remaining 53.7% of cases were international. Males and females accounted for 52.4% and 32.9% of cases, respectively, with the remaining 14.6% being designated as unknown. A male skew persisted across subgroup analyses by age group (p=1.0) and location (inside/outside China) (p=0.22). While the number of reported international cases has been steadily increasing over the study period, the number of reported cases in China rapidly decreased from the start point. The median reporting delay was 3 [IQR: 2-4.8] days. The median delay between symptom onset and first seeking medical care was 1 [IQR: 0-3.25] day. In international cases, time to first seeking medical care was a median of 2.5 days longer than in China (p=0.04). When clinical features were reported, fever was the most common presentation (68.0%), followed by cough (36.0%). Conclusions: The number of reported international pediatric COVID-19 cases is rapidly increasing. COVID-19 infections are, to-date, more common in males than females in both the children and adolescent age groups. Additionally, this male predominance remains the case both inside and outside of China. Crowdsourced data enabled early analysis of epidemiologic variables in pediatric patients with COVID-19. Further data sharing is required to enable analyses that are required to understand the course of this infection in children.


title: Pittcon goes ahead despite coronavirus

text: The novel coronavirus was on everyone’s mind at Pittcon, the big scientific instrumentation conference held last week at McCormick Place in Chicago In the halls, breezeways, and bars, scientists and instrument company executives took 5 min here and 10 min there to check in with one another about the latest on the disease, called COVID-19, caused by the new coronavirus Many booths sat empty, with signs stating that the exhibitor who had reserved the spot was “absent due to travel restrictions ” Firms small and large told C&EN that travel for their staff was down to a minimum, and they were watching and waiting to see how the virus would impact their business “I’m here at this show because someone from China couldn’t make it,” said Bob Schuman, director of marketing and product management at KPM Analytics A staffer at his firm, which makes specialized instruments for food and agriculture markets


title: Psychological intervention measures during the COVID-19 pandemic

text: The health emergency we are experiencing due to the spread of the covid-19 disease has strongly influenced the psychological and physical health of the general population, including the health care professionals. the aim of this brief article is a preliminary analysis of the psychological interventions following the infectious disease outbreak in order to 1) implement guidelines for the existing emerging psychological crisis for people directly and indirectly affected by COVID-19, and 2) establish adequate procedures and prompt responses.


title: Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework

text: Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics, for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West of England (SW) as an example case. Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. Setting: SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service (NHS) authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. Participants: Publicly-available data on COVID-19 patients. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction ("R") number over time. Results: SW model projections indicate that, as of the 11th May 2020 (when 'lockdown' measures were eased), 5,793 (95% credible interval, CrI, 2,003 - 12,051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW England population, 95%CrI 0.04 - 0.22%), and a total of 189,048 (95%CrI 141,580 - 277,955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95%CrI 2.5 - 5.0%) of the SW population. The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on the 11th May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95%CrI 169 - 1,543) and 110 (95%CrI 8 - 464) respectively. The R value in SW England was predicted to be 2.6 (95%CrI 2.0 - 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95%CrI 1.8 - 2.9) and lockdown/ school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95CrI% 0.5 - 0.7). Conclusions: The developed model has proved a valuable asset for local and regional healthcare services. The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and - as open source software - is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies.


title: Dynamic Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects of Interventions on Its Spread

text: A key challenge for estimating the epidemiological parameters of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan is the discrepancy between the officially reported number of infections and the true number of infections. A common approach to tackling the challenge is to use the number of infections exported from Wuhan to infer the true number in the city. This approach can only provide a static estimate of the epidemiological parameters before Wuhan lockdown on January 23, 2020, because there are almost no exported cases thereafter. Here, we propose a method to dynamically estimate the epidemiological parameters of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by recovering true numbers of infections from day-to-day official numbers. Using the method, we provide a comprehensive retrospection on how the disease had progressed in Wuhan from January 19 to March 5, 2020. Particularly, we estimate that the outbreak sizes by January 23 and March 5 were 11,239 [95% CI 4,794--22,372] and 124,506 [95% CI 69,526--265,113], respectively. The effective reproduction number attained its maximum on January 24 (3.42 [95% CI 3.34--3.50]) and became less than 1 from February 7 (0.76 [95% CI 0.65--0.92]). We also estimate the effects of two major government interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan. In particular, transportation suspension and large scale hospitalization respectively prevented 33,719 and 90,072 people from getting infected in the nine-day time period right after its implementation.


title: A rapidly adaptable biomaterial vaccine for SARS-CoV-2

text: The global COVID-19 pandemic motivates accelerated research to develop safe and efficacious vaccines. To address this need, we leveraged a biomaterial vaccine technology that consists of mesoporous silica rods (MSRs) that provide a sustained release of granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) and adjuvants to concentrate and mature antigen-presenting cells at the vaccine site. Here we explored the humoral responses resulting from the use of monophosphoryl lipid A (MPLA) as the adjuvant and SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins S1, S2, the nucleocapsid (N) protein, and receptor binding domain (RBD) as the target antigens. The dose of antigen and impact of pre-manufacturing of vaccines as versus loading antigen just-in-time was explored in these studies. Single shot MSR vaccines induced rapid and robust antibody titers to the presented antigens, even without the use of a boost, and sera from vaccinated animals demonstrated neutralizing activity against a SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus. Overall, these results suggest the MSR vaccine system may provide potent protective immunity when utilized to present SARS-CoV-2 antigens.


Spectrum of innate and adaptive immune response to SARS CoV 2 infection across asymptomatic, mild and severe cases; a longitudinal cohort study


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title: Minimal system for assembly of SARS-CoV-2 virus like particles

text: SARS-CoV-2 virus is the causative agent of COVID-19. Here we demonstrate that non-infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus like particles (VLPs) can be assembled by co-expressing the viral proteins S, M and E in mammalian cells. The assembled SARS-CoV-2 VLPs display numerous S protein spikes ideal for vaccine development. The particles have a spike to spike size of 103 ± 6 nm and a membrane diameter of 63 ± 5 nm. We further show that SARS-CoV-2 VLPs dried in ambient conditions can retain their structural integrity upon repeated scans with Atomic Force Microscopy up to a peak force of 1 nN.


docid: eoaccpqm

title: Predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection trend using technical analysis indicators

text: COVID-19 pandemic is a global emergency caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Without efficacious drugs or vaccines, mass quarantine has been the main strategy adopted by governments to contain the virus spread. This has led to a significant reduction in the number of infected people and deaths and to a diminished pressure over the health care system. However, an economic depression is following due to the forced absence of worker from their job and to the closure of many productive activities. For these reasons, governments are lessening progressively the mass quarantine measures to avoid an economic catastrophe. Nevertheless, the reopening of firms and commercial activities might lead to a resurgence of infection. In the worst-case scenario, this might impose the return to strict lockdown measures. Epidemiological models are therefore necessary to forecast possible new infection outbreaks and to inform government to promptly adopt new containment measures. In this context, we tested here if technical analysis methods commonly used in the financial market might provide early signal of change in the direction of SARS-Cov-2 infection trend in Italy, a country which has been strongly hit by the pandemic. We conclude that technical analysis indicators can be usefully adopted to this aim.


title: A survey-based study on the knowledge, attitude, and the practices pertaining to the 2019 novel Corona Virus infection amongst undergraduate medical students in India

text: Background. In the light of recent outbreak of COVID19 Pandemic for which is there no specific treatment, prevention and awareness is the only key to overcome an adversity of such magnitude. Thus, we aimed to understand the knowledge, attitude and practices of undergraduate medical students pertaining to infection with the COVID19. Methods. An electronic survey developed using an online cloud-based website (Survey Monkey) was served to undergraduate medical students. Participants had a week to voluntarily complete the 8 minute long questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and figures were obtained from surveymonkey.com. Results. Of 2507 invitees across six medical colleges in India, 616 (24.6%) responded. Most undergraduates (age 21.5 years, 46.1% males) were undergoing internship (16.7%) or final year undergraduate training (54.1%). Knowledge regarding viral transmission, clinical-radiologic features, laboratory diagnosis and treatment was adequate among most students (Fig 1). However, the understanding of the incubation period and time to symptoms was less than satisfactory (Supplementary Table 1). Nearly three-fourths 461 (74.8%) were aware of the COVID-19 specific precautions. While their universities had advised most regarding hand hygiene, social distancing, symptom identification, and high-risk groups, fewer were advised to avoid staying back in hostels or drug prevention. Nearly 70% were reluctant to attend clinics from fear of getting infected or passing on to others. Most students read about COVID-19 regularly, and social media accounts of medical journals were the primary 78.9% source. Conclusion. Most medical students are aware of the basics of COVID19 infection and act as a potential reservoir to fill the gaps in Healthcare services should the need arise.


title: Using curvature to infer COVID-19 fractal epidemic network fragility and systemic risk

text: The damage of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is reaching unprecedented scales. There are numerous classical epidemiology models trying to quantify epidemiology metrics. Usually, to forecast the epidemics, these classical approaches need parameter estimations, such as the contagion rate or the basic reproduction number. Here we propose a data-driven, parameter-free approach to access the fragility and systemic risk of epidemic networks by studying the Forman-Ricci curvature. Network curvature has been used successfully to forecast risk in financial networks and we suggest that those results can be translated for COVID-19 epidemic time series as well. We first show that our hypothesis is true in a toy-model of epidemic time series with delays, which generates epidemic networks. By doing so, we are able to verify that the Forman-Ricci curvature can be a parameter-free estimate for the fragility and risk of the network at each stage of the simulated pandemic. On this basis, we then compute the Forman-Ricci curvature for real epidemic networks built from epidemic time series available from the World Health Organization (WHO). The Forman-Ricci curvature allow us to detect early warning signs of the emergence of the pandemic. The advantage of the method lies in providing an early geometrical data marker for epidemics, without the need of parameter estimation and stochastic modeling. The strategy above, together with other data-driven tools for investigating epidemic network dynamics, can be readily implemented on a daily basis to quickly estimate the growth, risk and fragility of real COVID-19 epidemic networks at different scales.


title: Understanding the indoor pre-symptomatic transmission mechanism of COVID-19

text: Discovering the mechanism that enables pre-symptomatic individuals to transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus has a significant impact on the possibility of controlling COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we have developed an evidence based quantitative mechanistic mathematical model. The model explicitly tracks the dynamics of contact and airborne transmission between individuals indoors, and was validated against the observed fundamental attributes of the epidemic, the secondary attack rate (SAR) and serial interval distribution. Using the model we identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission, which was found to be contact route, while the contribution of the airborne route is negligible. We provide evidence that a combination of rather easy to implement measures of frequent hand washing, cleaning fomites and avoiding physical contact decreases the risk of infection by an order of magnitude, similarly to wearing masks and gloves.


title: Active Elastomeric Composite Dense Array Stamp For Micro-transfer Printing

text: Abstract Micro-transfer printing is a powerful methodology for the manufacturing of 3D heterogeneously integrated micro-systems. This paper explores an active elastomeric composite dense array stamp which improves throughput while enabling local monitoring and control of the process. This dense array stamp is a scalable 4x4 geometry design with a multiplexed interconnection scheme, ensuring a small footprint. It consists of 16 individual stamps, each with a Lead Zirconate Titanate (PZT) actuator and a strain gauge sensor. Actuation and sensing characterization and closed-loop feedback control were established, and the dense array stamp performance was validated using selective pickup and place micro-transfer printing experiments.


title: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

text: Background: The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people after China. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 26 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions. Results: We reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (42%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (31%), recovered or discharged (13%), deceased (10%), and hospitalized in intensive care (4%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 115,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic not less than 2 months. Conclusions: Once month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.


title: COVID-19 Deaths: Which Explanatory Variables Matter the Most?

text: As Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads around the World, many questions about the disease are being answered; however, many more remain poorly understood. Although the situation is rapidly evolving, with datasets being continually corrected or updated, it is crucial to understand what factors may be driving transmission through different populations. While studies are beginning to highlight specific parameters that may be playing a role, few have attempted to thoroughly estimate the relative importance of these disparate variables that likely include: climate, population demographics, and imposed state interventions. In this report, we compiled a database of more than 28 potentially explanatory variables for each of the 50 U.S. states through early May 2020. Using a combination of traditional statistical and modern machine learning approaches, we identified those variables that were the most statistically significant, and, those that were the most important. These variables were chosen to be fiduciaries of a range of possible drivers for COVID-19 deaths in the USA. We found that population-weighted density (PWD), some "stay at home" metrics, monthly temperature and precipitation, race/ethnicity, and chronic low respiratory death rate, were all statistically significant. Of these, PWD and mobility metrics dominated. This suggests that the biggest impact on COVID-19 deaths was, at least initially, a function of where you lived, and not what you did. However, clearly, increasing social distancing has the net effect of (at least temporarily) reducing the effective PWD. Our results strongly support the idea that the loosening of "lock-down" orders should be tailored to the local PWD. In contrast to these variables, while still statistically significant, race/ethnicity, health, and climate effects could only account for a few percent of the variability in deaths. Where associations were anticipated but were not found, we discuss how limitations in the parameters chosen may mask a contribution that might otherwise be present.


The Sudanese/British doctors who offered their lives fighting coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic


title: Risk interactions of coronavirus infection across age groups after the peak of COVID-19 epidemic

text: Background: the COVID-19 epidemic has incurred significant disease burden worldwide, particularly on elderly population. This study aims to explore how risks of infection interact across age groups and compared risk patterns between South Korea and US Florida state. Methods: Daily new COVID-19 cases were scraped from online sources. A multivariate vector autoregressive model for time series count data was used to examine the risk interactions across age groups. Case counts from previous days were included as predictors to dynamically examine the change of risk patterns. Results: In both South Korea and Florida, the risk of coronavirus infection among elderly people was significantly affected by other age groups. An increase of virus infection among people aged 20 -39 could double the risk of infection among elderly people. Meanwhile, an increase in virus infection among elderly people also significantly increased risks of infection among other age groups. The risks of infection among younger people were relatively unaffected by that of other age groups. Conclusions: Protecting elderly people from coronavirus infection could not only reduce the risk of infection among themselves but also ameliorate the risks of virus infection among other age groups. Such interventions should be effective and for long term.


title: Indian resuscitation council (IRC) suggested guidelines for comprehensive cardiopulmonary life support (CCLS) for suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient

text: Management of the recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) remains challenging. The challenges are not only limited to its preventive strategies, but also extend to curative treatment, and are amplified during the management of critically ill patients with COVID-19. Older persons with comorbidities like diabetes mellitus, cardiac diseases, hepatic impairment, renal disorders and respiratory pathologies or immune impairing conditions are more vulnerable and have a higher mortality from COVID-19. Earlier, the Indian Resuscitation Council (IRC) had proposed the Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Life Support (CCLS) for management of cardiac arrest victims in the hospital setting. However, in patients with COVID-19, the guidelines need to be modified,due to various concerns like differing etiology of cardiac arrest, virulence of the virus, risk of its transmission to rescuers, and the need to avoid or minimize aerosolization from the patient due to various interventions. There is limited evidence in these patients, as the SARS-CoV-2 is a novel infection and not much literature is available with high-level evidence related to CPR in patients of COVID-19. These suggested guidelines are a continuum of CCLS guidelines by IRC with an emphasis on the various challenges and concerns being faced during the resuscitative management of COVID-19 patients with cardiopulmonary arrest.


title: In silico identification of conserved cis-acting RNA elements in the SARS-CoV-2 genome

text: Aim The aim of this study was to computationally predict conserved RNA sequences and structures known as cis-acting RNA elements (CREs) located within the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Materials & methods Bioinformatics tools were used to analyse and predict cis-acting regulatory elements by obtaining viral sequences from available databases. Results Computational analysis prediction revealed the presence of RNA stem-loop structures within the 3’ end of the ORF1ab region that are analogous to the previously identified SARS-CoV genomic packaging signals. Alignment-based RNA secondary structures prediction of the 5’ end of the SARS-CoV-2 genome identified also conserved CREs. Conclusion These CREs could be used as potential targets for a vaccine and/or antiviral therapeutics developments; however, further studies would be required to confirm their roles in the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle.


title: Covid-19 Epidemiological Factor Analysis: Identifying Principal Factors with Machine Learning

text: Based on a subset of Covid-19 Wave 1 cases at a time point near TZ+3m (April, 2020), we perform an analysis of the influencing factors for the epidemics impacts with several different statistical methods. The consistent conclusion of the analysis with the available data is that apart from the policy and management quality, being the dominant factor, the most influential factors among the considered were current or recent universal BCG immunization and the prevalence of smoking.


オンライン DEIM2020 開催の試み


title: Healthcare Worker COVID-19 Cases in Ontario, Canada: A Cross-sectional Study

text: Background: Our objectives were to describe and compare healthcare worker (HCW) and non-HCW COVID-19 cases in Ontario, as well as the frequency of COVID-19 among HCWs household members. Methods: Using reportable disease data at Public Health Ontario which captures COVID-19 cases in Ontario, we conducted a cross-sectional study comparing demographic, exposure, and clinical variables between HCWs and non-HCWs with COVID-19 as of 14 May 2020. We calculated rates of infections over time and determined the frequency of within household transmissions using natural language processing. Results: There were 4,230 (17.5%) HCW COVID-19 cases in Ontario, of whom 20.2% were nurses, 2.3% were physicians, and the remaining 77.4% other specialties. HCWs were more likely to be between 30-60 years of age and female. HCWs were more likely to present asymptomatically (8.1% versus 7.0%, p=0.010) or with atypical symptoms (17.8% versus 10.5%, p<0.001). The mortality among HCWs was 0.2% compared to 10.5% of non-HCWs. HCWs commonly had exposures to a confirmed case or outbreak (74.1%), however only 3.1% were confirmed to be nosocomial. The rate of new infections was 5.5 times higher in HCWs than non-HCWs, but mirrored the epidemic curve. We identified 391 (9.8%) probable secondary household transmissions. Interpretation: HCWs represent a disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario but with low confirmed numbers of nosocomial transmission. The data support substantial testing bias and under-ascertainment of general population cases. Protecting HCWs through appropriate personal protective equipment and physician distancing from colleagues is paramount.


title: LRRK2-phosphorylated Rab10 sequesters Myosin Va with RILPL2 during ciliogenesis blockade

text: Activating mutations in LRRK2 kinase cause Parkinson’s disease. Pathogenic LRRK2 phosphorylates a subset of Rab GTPases and blocks ciliogenesis. Thus, defining novel phospho-Rab interacting partners is critical to our understanding of the molecular basis of LRRK2 pathogenesis. RILPL2 binds with strong preference to LRRK2-phosphorylated Rab8A and Rab10. RILPL2 is a binding partner of the motor protein and Rab effector, Myosin Va. We show here that the globular tail domain of Myosin Va also contains a high affinity binding site for LRRK2-phosphorylated Rab10, and certain tissue-specific Myosin Va isoforms strongly prefer to bind phosphorylated Rab10. In the presence of pathogenic LRRK2, RILPL2 relocalizes to the peri-centriolar region in a phosphoRab10- and Myosin Va-dependent manner. In the absence of phosphoRab10, expression of RILPL2 or depletion of Myosin Va increase centriolar RILPL2 levels, and either condition is sufficient to block ciliogenesis in RPE cells. These experiments show that LRRK2 generated phosphoRab10 dramatically redistributes Myosin Va-RILPL2 complexes to the mother centriole, which may sequester Myosin Va and RILPL2 in a manner that blocks their normal roles in ciliogenesis.


The Status of Psychological Issues Among Frontline Health Workers Confronting the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic


title: Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in kuwait using compartmental and logistic regression models

text: The state of Kuwait is facing a substantial challenge in responding to the spread of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The government's decision to repatriate stranded citizens back to Kuwait from various COVID-19 epicenters has generated a great concern. It has heightened the need for prediction models to estimate the epidemic size. Mathematical modeling plays a pivotal role in predicting the spread of infectious diseases to enable policymakers to implement various health and safety measures to contain the spread. This research presents a forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic size in Kuwait based on the confirmed data. Deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches were used to estimate the size of COVID-19 spread in Kuwait and determine its ending phase. In addition, various simulation scenarios were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, particularly with time-varying infection rates and individual contact numbers. Results indicate that, with data until 19 April 2020 and before the repatriation plan, the estimated reproduction number in Kuwait is 2.2. It also confirms the efficiency of the containment measures of the state of Kuwait to control the spread even after the repatriation plan. The results show that a high contact rate among the population implies that the epidemic peak value is yet to be reached and that more strict intervention measures must be incorporated.


title: Clinical predictors of donor antibody titer and correlation with recipient antibody response in a COVID-19 convalescent plasma clinical trial

text: Background: Convalescent plasma therapy for COVID-19 relies on the transfer of anti-viral antibody from donors to recipients via plasma transfusion. The relationship between clinical characteristics and antibody response to COVID-19 is not well defined. We investigated predictors of convalescent antibody production and quantified recipient antibody response in a convalescent plasma therapy clinical trial. Methods: Multivariable analysis of clinical and serological parameters in 103 confirmed COVID-19 convalescent plasma donors 28 days or more following symptom resolution was performed. Mixed effects regression models with piecewise linear trends were used to characterize serial antibody responses in 10 convalescent plasma recipients with severe COVID-19. Results: Mean symptom duration of plasma donors was 11.9 and 7.8% (8/103) had been hospitalized. Antibody titers ranged from 0 to 1:3,892 (anti-receptor binding domain (RBD)) and 0 to 1:3,289 (anti-spike). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that higher anti-RBD and anti-spike titer were associated with increased age, hospitalization for COVID-19, fever, and absence of myalgia (all p<0.05). Fatigue was significantly associated with anti-RBD (p=0.03) but not anti-spike antibody titer (p=0.11). In pairwise comparison among ABO blood types, AB donors had higher anti-RBD titer than O negative donors (p=0.048) and higher anti-spike titer than O negative (p=0.015) or O positive (p=0.037) donors. Eight of the ten recipients were discharged, one remains on ECMO and one died on ECMO. No toxicity was associated with plasma transfusion. After excluding two ECMO patients and adjusting for donor antibody titer, recipient anti-RBD antibody titer increased on average 31% per day during the first three days post-transfusion (p=0.01) and anti-spike antibody titer by 40.3% (p=0.02). Conclusion: Advanced age, fever, absence of myalgia, fatigue, blood type and hospitalization were associated with higher convalescent antibody titer to COVID-19. Despite variability in donor titer, 80% of convalescent plasma recipients showed significant increase in antibody levels post-transfusion. A more complete understanding of the dose-response effect of plasma transfusion among COVID-19 patients is needed to determine the clinical efficacy of this therapy.


Factors associated with self-reported anxiety, depression, and general health during the UK lockdown; a cross-sectional survey


title: Active-sterile neutrino mixing constraint using reactor antineutrinos with the ISMRAN set-up

text: In this work, we present an analysis of the sensitivity to the active-sterile neutrino mixing with the Indian Scintillator Matrix for Reactor Anti-Neutrino (ISMRAN) experimental set-up at very short baseline. In this article, we have considered the measurement of electron antineutrino induced events employing a single detector which can be placed either at a single position or moved between near and far positions from the given reactor core. Results extracted in the later case are independent of the theoretical prediction of the reactor anti-neutrino spectrum and detector efficiency. Our analysis shows that the results obtained from the measurement carried out at a combination of the near and far detector positions are improved significantly at higher $\Delta m^{2}_{41}$ compared to the ones obtained with the measurement at a single detector position only. It is found that the best possible combination of near and far detector positions from a 100 MW$_{th}$ power DHRUVA research reactor core are 7 m and 9 m, respectively, for which ISMRAN set-up can exclude in the range 1.4 $eV^{2} \leq \Delta m^{2}_{41} \leq$ 4.0 $eV^{2}$ of reactor antineutrino anomaly region along with the present best-fit point of active-sterile neutrino oscillation parameters. At those combinations of detector positions, the ISMRAN set-up can observe the active sterile neutrino oscillation with a 95$\%$ confidence level provided that $\sin^{2}2\theta_{14}\geq 0.09$ at $\Delta m^{2}_{41}$ = 1 eV$^{2}$ for an exposure of 1 ton-yr. The active-sterile neutrino mixing sensitivity can be improved by about 22\% at the same exposure by placing the detector at near and far distances of 15 m and 17 m, respectively, from the compact proto-type fast breeder reactor (PFBR) facility which has a higher thermal power of 1250 MW$_{th}$.


title: A New Resource for Genomics and Precision Health Information and Publications on the Investigation and Control of COVID-19 and other Coronaviruses

text: Summary We developed a new online database that contains the most updated published scientific literature, online news and reports, CDC and National Institutes of Health (NIH) resources. The tool captures emerging discoveries and applications of genomics, molecular, and other precision medicine and precision public health tools in the investigation and control of coronavirus diseases, including COVID-19, MERS-CoV, and SARS. Availability Coronavirus Disease Portal (CDP) can be freely accessed via https://phgkb.cdc.gov/PHGKB/coVInfoStartPage.action. Contact wyu@cdc.gov


title: Differential ventilation using flow control valves as a potential bridge to full ventilatory support during the COVID-19 crisis

text: Background: It has been projected that there will be too few ventilators to meet demand during the COVID-19 (SARS CoV-2) pandemic. Ventilator sharing has been suggested as a crisis standard of care strategy to increase availability of mechanical ventilation. The safety and practicality of shared ventilation in patients is unknown. We designed and evaluated a system whereby one mechanical ventilator can be used to simultaneously ventilate two patients who have different lung compliances using a custom manufactured flow control valve to allow for individual adjustment of tidal volume and airway pressure for each patient. Methods: The system was first evaluated in a simulation lab using two human patient simulators under expected clinical conditions. It was then tested in an observational study of four patients with acute respiratory failure due to COVID-19. Two separately ventilated COVID-19 patients were connected to a single ventilator for one hour. This intervention was repeated in a second pair of patients. Ventilatory parameters (tidal volume, peak airway pressures, compliance) were recorded at five minute intervals during both studys. Arterial blood gases were taken at zero, thirty, and sixty minutes. The primary outcome was maintenance of stable acid-base status and oxygenation during shared ventilation. Results: Two male and two female patients, age range 32-56 yrs, participated. Ideal body weight and driving pressure were markedly different among patients. All patients demonstrated stable physiology and ventilation for the duration of shared ventilation. In one patient tidal volume was increased after 30 minutes to correct a respiratory acidosis. Conclusions: Differential ventilation using a single ventilator and a split breathing circuit with flow control valves is possible. A single ventilator could feasibly be used to safely ventilate two COVID-19 patients simultaneously as a bridge to full ventilatory support.


title: Hyperpyrexia leading to death in a patient with severe COVID-19 disease

text: We describe here clinical course of a 42 year old male with severe COVID-19 disease treated at a private hospital in Mumbai India. This patient with very high inflammatory markers at admission was treated with supportive care, mechanical ventilation, anticoagulation, hydroxychloroquine, corticosteroids, tocilizumab, intravenous insulin, antibiotics, sedation and paralysis. There was sustained improvement in his respiratory status and decline in ventilator settings with decline and normalization of CRP, D dimer and PCT. However high fever persisted that did not respond to paracetamol and NSAIDS. On day 8 of admission his axillary temperature touched 107F followed by rapid clinical deterioration and death within the next 12 hours, Blood cultures were consistently sterile.


title: Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center

text: Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation rooms to examine viral shedding from isolated individuals. While all individuals were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2, symptoms and viral shedding to the environment varied considerably. Many commonly used items, toilet facilities, and air samples had evidence of viral contamination, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is shed to the environment as expired particles, during toileting, and through contact with fomites. Disease spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) are indicated, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions.


title: INSIGHT: a scalable isothermal NASBA-based platform for COVID-19 diagnosis

text: We present here INSIGHT (Isothermal NASBA-Sequencing based hIGH-througput Test): a two-stage COVID-19 testing strategy, using a combination of an isothermal NASBA reaction and next generation sequencing. From commercially acquired human saliva with spiked-in viral RNA as input, the first stage employs isothermal amplification of viral RNA to give a rapid result in one to two hours, using either fluorescence detection or a dipstick readout, whilst simultaneously incorporating sample-specific barcodes into the amplification product. In the first stage, fluorescent viral RNA detection can be consistently achieved at 10-100 copies per 20 µl reaction. The second stage pools post-amplification barcoded products from multiple samples for scalable sequencing that could be centralised, to further improve the accuracy of the test in a massively parallel way. Our two-stage testing strategy is suitable for further development into a home-based or point-of-care assay, and is potentially scalable to population level. IMPORTANT This protocol has not been validated on patient samples and should not be used for clinical diagnosis without further validation and certification. ***This is ongoing research to develop a testing strategy for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Wellcome Sanger Institute is not in a position to develop this into a commercial product, but would be open to discussions with third parties about how they could develop this further to achieve the societal benefits of this work.***


title: Protein structure analysis of the interactions between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the human ACE2 receptor: from conformational changes to novel neutralizing antibodies

text: The recent severe acute respiratory syndrome, known as Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread so much rapidly and severely to induce World Health Organization (WHO) to declare state of emergency over the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. While several countries have chosen the almost complete lock-down for slowing down SARS-CoV-2 spread, scientific community is called to respond to the devastating outbreak by identifying new tools for diagnosis and treatment of the dangerous COVID-19. With this aim we performed an in silico comparative modeling analysis, which allows to gain new insights about the main conformational changes occurring in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, at the level of the receptor binding domain (RBD), along interactions with human cells angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, that favour human cell invasion. Furthermore, our analysis provides i) an ideal pipeline to identify already characterized antibodies that might target SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD, for preventing interactions with the human ACE2, and ii) instructions for building new possible neutralizing antibodies, according to chemical/physical space restraints and complementary determining regions (CDR) mutagenesis of the identified existing antibodies. The proposed antibodies show in silico a high affinity for SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and can be used as reference antibodies also for building new high affinity antibodies against present and future coronavirus able to invade human cells through interactions of their spike proteins with the human ACE2. More in general, our analysis provides indications for the set-up of the right biological molecular context for investigating spike RBD-ACE2 interactions for the development of new vaccines, diagnosis kits and other treatments based on the usage or the targeting of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.


title: Simeprevir suppresses SARS-CoV-2 replication and synergizes with remdesivir

text: The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, is a global threat to human health. By in vitro screening and biochemical characterization, we identified the hepatitis C virus (HCV) protease inhibitor simeprevir as an especially promising repurposable drug for treating COVID-19. We also revealed that simeprevir synergizes with the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) inhibitor remdesivir to suppress the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Our results provide preclinical rationale for the combination treatment of simeprevir and remdesivir for the pharmacological management of COVID-19 patients. One Sentence Summary Discovery of simeprevir as a potent suppressor of SARS-CoV-2 viral replication that synergizes remdesivir.


title: Mechanisms of selected functional foods against viral infections with a view on COVID-19: Mini review

text: Following research obtained from the previous SARS and MERS outbreaks, we’ve gained knowledge about the mechanisms of bioactive plant ingredients against the attachment and replication of COVID-19 as well as overshooting immune responses. This could be used for designing COVID-19 trials utilizing bioactive compounds. The receptors for SARS, ACE-2, and CD26 show associations with mechanisms that regulate human senescence. Several functional foods interact with the epigenetic regulation of viral infection and mechanisms of senescence. This review concentrates on the link between bioactive plant ingredients and their activities against mechanisms of viral infections.


title: European Public Health News

text: This is the 22nd President’s column I am writing since I penned my first column in October 2016 Over the past four years I have proudly seen EUPHA grow from strength to strength This is definitely in part due to the fact that EUPHA gives space to individuals of all ages, nationalities and disciplines to participate The only requisite is to be passionate about improving health and well-being for all—be it through research, policy, practice or education and training This openness has allowed us to draw the best talent and most highly motivated individuals in European Public Health to contribute on a voluntary basis to take forward analysis, advocacy and action for the future of health and humanity EUPHA is now in a strong position and well recognized as a credible partner by key supranational organizations including the World Health Organization and the European Commission Having established a Brussels-based office, developed new sections, grown the conference into the largest and most important public health event in Europe and leaving a vibrant office and community of engaged young persons, augurs well for the sustainability of the organization This could not have happened at a more significant moment in the history of public health As the world follows with interest and intensity the international public health emergency posed by the novel corona virus #COVID19, we are starkly reminded of the importance and role of public health and health systems This outbreak is a convergence of an infectious disease epidemic triggered through zoonotic transmission, abetted by an epidemic of misinformation having a marked social, economic and political impact It is a watershed in the history of global health and after this nothing will ever else be the same in European and global public health Whilst lessons are still being learned and much will eventually be written, this outbreak has underlined the interdependence of nations through economic global interconnectedness, the value of science and the importance of democracy, transparency and respect for human rights as issues that merit a new approach and a new order For months now, I have written about the dangers of complacency when it comes to health policy in Europe and about the risks of considering health as having been well achieved in the developed world due to the spectacular increases in life expectancy achieved over the past decades This outbreak has confirmed without any doubt the need to continue to invest in science and research, but also in strong health systems and in new areas of scholarly endeavour based on anthropological and social science No doubt the World Congress of Public Health being organized in Rome in October 2020 comes at a most timely manner and is well placed to discuss what needs to be done no holds barred to prevent and manage public health emergencies not only linked to infectious disease but also other health ‘emergencies’ including climate change, air pollution, mental health, obesity, diabetes and cancer On a personal note, this column is the last one I shall be writing as EUPHA President The Executive Council has accepted my proposal to move slightly earlier than originally planned into the role of past President since I have assumed a temporary position in the Transition Team of Dr Hans Kluge, the incoming WHO Regional Director for the European Region This is the moment for me to thank all those who have supported EUPHA and myself personally over the past 4 years To my colleagues in the Executive Council, Conference Foundation and Section Council—thank you for walking with me in this journey to continue to build EUPHA into a strong, visible and credible actor for public health in the European region To the wonderful EUPHA office staff working with the incredible Director Dineke Zeegers Paget—thank you for working tirelessly to make our thoughts, dreams and projects come true To our partner organizations on the European Public Health scene and to colleagues working in supranational organizations—thank you for working with us particularly on the European Public Health conferences and the European Public Health Week—these would not happen without your joint participation! Finally, I wish to close by thanking my past Presidents, friends and mentors Martin McKee and Walter Ricciardi for having encouraged, advised and supported me over these years I am wishing my successor Dr Iveta Nagyova every success during her tenure as EUPHA President Under her leadership, I am convinced that EUPHA will continue to flourish and play an important role in European Public Health


title: Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

text: Estimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.


The rise of ocean robots


title: Direct observation of repeated infections with endemic coronaviruses

text: Background: While the mechanisms of adaptive immunity to pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are still unknown, the immune response to the widespread endemic coronaviruses HKU1, 229E, NL63 and OC43 provide a useful reference for understanding repeat infection risk. Methods: Here we used data from proactive sampling carried out in New York City from fall 2016 to spring 2018. We combined weekly nasal swab collection with self-reports of respiratory symptoms from 191 participants to investigate the profile of recurring infections with endemic coronaviruses. Results: During the study, 12 individuals tested positive multiple times for the same coronavirus. We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection. We also found no significant association between repeat infections and symptom severity but strong association between symptom severity and belonging to the same family. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that re-infections with the same endemic coronavirus are not atypical in a time window shorter than 1 year and that the genetic basis of innate immune response may be a greater determinant of infection severity than immune memory acquired after a previous infection.


title: Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread: the Italian case

text: A model based on chaotic maps and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. These large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.


title: Distinctive trajectories of COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: a retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea

text: Objectives: Elderly people had suffered disproportional burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were fitted with generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored with interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. Results: A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. Interaction between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p<0.001), but not with gender group. People aged 20-39 years led the epidemic processes in the society with two peaks: one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above was trailing behind that of younger people with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations of case counts among young adults. Conclusions: Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic in the whole society with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from virus infection after the peak of epidemic.


title: List of abbreviations

text: Unknown


title: Precautions are Needed for COVID-19 Patients with Coinfection of Common Respiratory Pathogens

text: Background: With the ongoing outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), infected patients within and beyond the epidemic area, Wuhan, China, showed different epidemiological and clinical characteristics. There is a paucity of data concerning coinfection with other common respiratory pathogens in COVID-19 patients outside of Wuhan. Methods: We conducted a double-centre study recruiting 68 patients with severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection confirmed by nucleic acid testing in Qingdao and Wuhan from January 17 to February 16, 2020. Indirect immunofluorescence was performed to detect the specific IgM antibody against common respiratory pathogens in collected acute phase serum. Results: Of the 68 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 30 (44.12%) were from Qingdao. The median age of Qingdao and Wuhan patients were 50 (IQR: 37-59) and 31 (IQR: 28-38) years, respectively, and the majority of patients were female in Qingdao (60.00%) and Wuhan (55.26%). Among COVID-19 patients in Qingdao, 24 (80.00%) of them had IgM antibodies against at least one respiratory pathogen, whereas only one (2.63%) of the patients in Wuhan had positive results for serum IgM antibody detection (P<0.0001). The most common respiratory pathogens detected in Qingdao COVID-19 patients were influenza virus A (60.00%) and influenza virus B (53.33%), followed by mycoplasma pneumoniae (23.33%) and legionella pneumophila (20.00%). While the pattern for coinfection in patients with community-acquired pneumonia in Qingdao was quite different, with a positive rate of only 20.90%. Interpretation: We reported a large proportion of COVID-19 patients with coinfection of seasonal respiratory pathogens in Qingdao, northeast China, which differed greatly from the patients in Wuhan, central China. Precautions are needed when dealing with COVID-19 patients beyond the epidemic centre who have coinfection with other respiratory pathogens. We highly recommend adding SARS-CoV-2 to routine diagnostic testing in capable hospitals to prevent misdetection of the virus.


title: Molecular characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in the first COVID-19 cluster in France reveals an amino-acid deletion in nsp2 (Asp268Del)

text: We present the first genetic characterization of a COVID-19 cluster in Europe using metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS). Despite low viral loads, the mNGS workflow used herein allowed to characterize the whole genome sequences of SARS-CoV2 isolated from an asymptomatic patient, in 2 clinical samples collected 1 day apart. Comparison of these sequences suggests viral evolution with development of quasispecies. In addition, the present workflow identified a new deletion in nsp2 (Asp268Del) which was found in all 3 samples originating from this cluster as well as in 37 other viruses collected in England and in Netherlands, suggesting the spread of this deletion in Europe. The impact of Asp268Del on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and pathogenicity, as well as on PCR performances and anti-viral strategy should be rapidly evaluated in further studies.


title: Stability of the COVID-19 virus under wet, dry and acidic conditions

text: COVID-19 has become a pandemic and is spreading fast worldwide. The COVID-19 virus is transmitted mainly through respiratory droplets and close contact. However, the fecal-oral transmission of the virus has not been ruled out and it is important to ascertain how acidic condition in the stomach affects the infectivity of the virus. Besides, it is unclear how stable the COVID-19 virus is under dry and wet conditions. In the present study, we have shown that the COVID-19 virus is extremely infectious as manifested by the infection of Vero-E6 cells by one PFU (Plaque Forming Unit) of the virus. We then investigated the stability of the COVID-19 virus in wet, dry and acidic (pH2.2) environments at room temperature. Results showed that the COVID-19 virus could survive for three days in wet and dry environments, but the dry condition is less favorable for the survival of the virus. Our study also demonstrated that the COVID-19 virus at a relative high titer (1.2 x 103 PFU) exhibits a certain degree of tolerance to acidic environment at least for 60 minutes. When the virus titer was ≤1.0 x 103 PFU, acid treatment (pH2.2) for 30 or 60 minute resulted in virus inactivation. It suggests that the virus at a high concentration may survive in the acidic environment of the stomach. The finding of the present study will contribute to the control of the spread of the COVID-19 virus.


Abdomen CT findings in a COVID-19 patient with intestinal symptoms and possibly false negative RT-PCR before initial discharge


title: Characterization of prolonged COVID-19 symptoms and patient comorbidities in an outpatient telemedicine cohort

text: We identified patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a telemedicine clinic who requested ongoing follow-up 6 weeks after symptom onset. Patients with prolonged symptoms often have not returned to work or usual activity. Respiratory symptoms are most common, and underlying asthma and lung disease occur frequently.


docid: wolpnbxa

title: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) envelope (E) protein harbors a conserved BH3-like sequence

text: The authors have withdrawn their manuscript whilst they perform additional experiments to test some of their conclusions further. Therefore, the authors do not wish this work to be cited as reference for the project. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.


Repurposed Drugs Against COVID-19: Safety Concerns and Stockout


title: COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN POST-SOVIET STATES: MODELING THE BEST AND WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

text: Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. Post-Soviet states are facing unique challenges due to their developing healthcare systems and unstable economy. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods: The data on confirmed cases and deaths were extracted from official governmental sources for a period from beginning of outbreak dates for each country until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the parameters of epidemic in 10 post-Soviet states and forecast the number of cases over a period of 10, 30 and 60 days. We also estimated the numbers of cases based on the optimal measures (best scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries. Results: It was estimated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached their peaks, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan are expected to reach their peaks in the coming week (April 29 - May 7, 2020), with comparatively low cases of COVID-19 and loss of lives in the best-case scenario. In contrast, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine would likely see the outbreaks with the largest number of COVID-19 cases amongst the studied Post-Soviet States in the worst scenario during the next 30 and 60 days. Geographical remoteness and small number of international travelers from the countries heavily affected by the pandemic could also have contributed to delay in the spread of COVID-19. Conclusion: Governmental response was shown to be as an important determining factor responsible for the development of COVID-19 epidemic in Post-Soviet states. The current protection rates should be maintained to reduce active cases during upcoming 30 and 60 days. The estimated possible scenarios based on the proposed model can potentially be used by healthcare professionals from each studied Post-Soviet States as well as others to improve plans to contain the current and future epidemic.


title: Covid19db -- An online database of trials of medicinal products to prevent or treat COVID-19, with a specific focus on drug repurposing

text: Background: The global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus has prompted an unprecedented international effort to seek medicines for prevention and treatment of infection. Drug repurposing has played a key part in this response. The rapid increase in trial activity has raised questions about efficiency and lack of coordination. Our objective was to develop a user-friendly, open access, online database of interventional trials of medicinal products to monitor and rapidly identify trials of medicinal products. Methods and Findings: Using the US clinicaltrials.gov (NCT) registry, the EU Clinical Trials Register (EUCTR) and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP), we identified all COVID-19 trials of medicinal products and combined data from the 3 sources into a single data table. Trials that were out of scope and duplicates were excluded. A manual encoding was performed to ascertain key information (e.g. trial aim, type of intervention etc). The database, Covid19db, was published online at: http://www.redo-project.org/covid19db/. Descriptive statistics of the database from April 4th 2020 through to May 19th show an increase from 186 to 955 trials, or an average of 17 new trials registered per day. Over this period, the proportion of trials including a repurposing arm decreased slightly over time (from a maximum of 75% to 68% at the end of the covered period) as did the proportion of trials aiming to prevent infection (from a maximum of 16% to 12% at the end of the covered period). The most popular intervention is hydroxychloroquine (180 trials), followed by azithromycin (57 trials), chloroquine, tocilizumab and lopinavir/ritonavir (36 trials). Total planned enrolment is 468,559 participants as of 19th May 2020. Conclusions: we have developed an open access, online and regularly updated tool to monitor clinical trials of medicinal products to prevent or treat infection by SARS-CoV-2 globally. Our analysis shows a high number of 'me-too' trials, in particular for some repurposed drugs, such as hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and tocilizumab, substantiating calls for better coordination and better use of trial resources.


title: The Chronic Kidney Disease and Acute Kidney Injury Involvement in COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

text: Aim: The aim of this study was to uncover whether kidney diseases were involved in COVID-19 pandemic from a systematic review. Methods: The studies reported the kidney outcomes in different severity of COVID-19 were included in this study. Standardized mean differences or odds ratios were calculated by employing Review Manager meta-analysis software. Results: Thirty-six trials were included in this systematic review with a total of 6395 COVID-19 patients. The overall effects indicated that the comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 3.28), complication of acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR = 11.02), serum creatinine (SMD = 0.68), abnormal serum creatinine (OR = 4.86), blood urea nitrogen (SMD = 1.95), abnormal blood urea nitrogen (OR = 6.53), received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) (OR = 23.63) was significantly increased in severe group than that in nonsevere group. Additionally, the complication of AKI (OR = 13.92) and blood urea nitrogen (SMD = 1.18) were remarkably elevated in critical group than that in severe group. Conclusion: CKD and AKI are susceptible to occur in patients with severe COVID-19. CRRT is applied frequently in severe COVID-19 patients than that in nonsevere COVID-19 patients. The risk of AKI is higher in critical group than that in severe group.


title: Transmission in Latent Period Causes A Large Number of Infected People in the United States

text: By April 29, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded one million, becoming the country with the most serious pandemic in the world. It is urgent to analyze the real situation and follow-up trend of the epidemic in the United States. The proposed model divides the time period into two different phases, before and after March 21, 2020. The results show that the basic reproduction number in the early period of propagation in the United States is estimated to be 4.06 (95% CI: 1.86-6.73) based on the confirmed cases data ranging from January 21, 2020 to March 21, 2020. The normalized contributions to R_0 for three different categories of communicators were estimated, including the numbers of the latent population (in incubation period) L, the documented infectious population Id, and the undocumented infectious population Iu. The results show that L contributes 16.17% (95% CI: 12.86% - 21.60%) to R_0, Id contributes 55.13% (95% CI: 43.15% - 63.97%), and Iu contributes 28.70% (95% CI: 19.29% - 40.07%) to R0. The metapopulation network was used to simulate the true spread of COVID-19 in the United States, and the Bayesian inference was applied to estimate the key parameters including the rate of the number of the susceptibles and the infected beta, the infection ratio between undocumented and documented transmission 1, the infection ratio between latent and documented transmission 2, the proportion of confirmed cases in the infectious population x, and the duration of latent period (incubation period) TL . From the analysis of phase one, 1 was estimated to be 0.40 (95% CI: 0.17 - 0.54), 2 was estimated to be 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02 - 0.11), x was estimated to be 0.70 (95% CI: 0.55 - 0.78), T_L was estimated to be 8.41 (95% CI: 6.64 - 9.42). As of April 13, 2020, it was estimated that only 45% (95% CI: 35% - 73%) of symptom onset cases in the United States have been documnented. The infectivity of undocumented infectious population was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.21 - 0.70) of that of the documented infectious population, while that of the latent population was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.11 - 0.27) of that of the documented infectious population. The incubation period of COVID-19 was estimated to be 10.69 days (95% CI: 10.02 - 11.74). We estimated that if the current control interventions are continued, the pandemic situation in the United States is likely to keep climbing up, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to reach more than 1.7 million in July and continue to grow. We also performed component analysis and sensitivity analysis, researching the compositions of the people with COVID-19, and considering that there is only a random time delay between the number of patients in the incubation period and the actual number of patients.


title: Using network science to propose strategies for effectively dealing with pandemics: The COVID-19 example

text: The global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is overwhelming many health-care systems. As a result, epidemiological models are being used to inform policy on how to effectively deal with this pandemic. We note that the majority of existing models do not take into account differences in the amount of interactions between individuals (i.e. the underlying human interaction network). Using network science we demonstrate how this network of interactions can be used to predict the spread of the virus and to inform policy on the most successful mitigation and suppression strategies. Although applicable to disease modelling in general, our results emphasize how network science can improve the predictive power of current COVID-19 epidemiological models. We provide commented source code for all our analyses so that they can easily be integrated into current and future epidemiological models.


title: Chest X-ray classification using Deep learning for automated COVID-19 screening

text: In today's world, we find ourselves struggling to fight one of the worst pandemics in the history of humanity known as COVID-2019 caused by a coronavirus. If we detect the virus at an early stage (before it enters the lower respiratory tract), the patient can be treated quickly. Once the virus reaches the lungs, we observe ground-glass opacity in the chest X-ray due to fibrosis in the lungs. Due to the significant differences between X-ray images of an infected and non-infected person, artificial intelligence techniques can be used to identify the presence and severity of the infection. We propose a classification model that can analyze the chest X-rays and help in the accurate diagnosis of COVID-19. Our methodology classifies the chest X-rays into 4 classes viz. normal, pneumonia, tuberculosis (TB), and COVID-19. Further, the X-rays indicating COVID-19 are classified on severity-basis into mild, medium, and severe. The deep learning model used for the classification of pneumonia, TB, and normal is VGG16 with an accuracy of 95.9 %. For the segregation of normal pneumonia and COVID-19, the DenseNet-161 was used with an accuracy of 98.9 %. ResNet-18 worked best for severity classification achieving accuracy up to 76 %. Our approach allows mass screening of the people using X-rays as a primary validation for COVID-19.


title: Corona, COVID and kidney transplantation

text: Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS CoV2) is responsible for corona virus disease (COVID-19). Many organizations have given guidelines for the prevention of COVID-19. Other societies have given updates regarding living and deceased donor transplantation during the pandemic. This article reviews the literature available on corona virus and its impact on living and deceased donor transplantation.


title: Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations

text: The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.


title: Forecasting Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic in India under Various Containment Measures- A Time-Dependent State-Space SIR Approach

text: Objectives Our primary objective is to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in India while adjusting for the effects of various progressively implemented containment measures. Apart from forecasting the major turning points and parameters associated with the epidemic, we intend to provide an epidemiological assessment of the impact of these containment measures in India. Methods We propose a method based on time-series SIR model to estimate time-dependent modifiers for transmission rate of the infection. These modifiers are used in state-space SIR model to estimate reproduction number R0, expected total incidence, and to forecast the daily prevalence till the end of the epidemic. We consider four different scenarios, two based on current developments and two based on hypothetical situations for the purpose of comparison. Results Assuming gradual relaxation in lockdown post 17 May 2020, we expect the prevalence of infecteds to cross 9 million, with at least 1 million severe cases, around the end of October 2020. For the same case, estimates of R0 for the phases no-intervention, partial-lockdown and lockdown are 4.46 (7.1), 1.47 (2.33), and 0.817 (1.29) respectively, assuming 14-day (24-day) infectious period. Conclusions Estimated modifiers give consistent estimates of unadjusted R0 across different scenarios, demonstrating precision. Results corroborate the effectiveness of lockdown measures in substantially reducing R0. Also, predictions are highly sensitive towards estimate of infectious period.


Special Coverage on COVID-19: An Open Letter to All New Yorkers from the Emergency Department Front Line


title: Importance of Bats in Wildlife: Not Just Carriers of Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 and Other Viruses

text: Bats are the only flying mammals that carry multiple pathogens, such as the SARS-CoV-2 As a consequent of fear of the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, there is an adverse reaction in multiple countries against these animals Bats contribute with arthropod control and pollination, among other positive roles of these animals


docid: zqoggwnk

title: Brief Communication: Magnetic Immuno-Detection of SARS-CoV-2 specific Antibodies

text: SARS-CoV-2 causes ongoing infections worldwide, and identifying people with immunity is becoming increasingly important. Available point-of-care diagnostic systems as lateral flow assays have high potential for fast and easy on-site antibody testing but are lacking specificity, sensitivity or possibility for quantitative measurements. Here, a new point-of-care approach for SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody detection in human serum based on magnetic immuno-detection is described and compared to standard ELISA. For magnetic immuno-detection, immunofiltration columns were coated with a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein peptide. SARS-CoV-2 peptide reactive antibodies, spiked at different concentrations into PBS and human serum, were rinsed through immunofiltration columns. Specific antibodies were retained within the IFC and labelled with an isotype specific biotinylated antibody. Streptavidin-functionalized magnetic nanoparticles were applied to label the secondary antibodies. Enriched magnetic nanoparticles were then detected by means of frequency magnetic mixing detection technology, using a portable magnetic read-out device. Measuring signals corresponded to the amount of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies in the sample. Our preliminary magnetic immuno-detection setup resulted in a higher sensitivity and broader detection range and was four times faster than ELISA. Further optimizations could reduce assay times to that of a typical lateral flow assay, enabling a fast and easy approach, well suited for point-of-care measurements without expensive lab equipment.


docid: zixnvehs

title: Why is chest CT important for early diagnosis of COVID-19? Prevalence matters

text: SARS-CoV-2 viral infection is a global pandemic disease (COVID-19). Reaching a swift, reliable diagnosis of COVID-19 in the emergency departments is imperative to direct patients to proper care and to prevent disease dissemination. COVID-19 diagnosis is based on the identification of viral RNA through RT-PCR from oral-nasopharyngeal swabs, which however presents suboptimal sensitivity and may require several hours in overstressed laboratories. These drawbacks have called for an additional, complementary first line approach. CT is the gold standard method for the detection of interstitial pneumonia, a hallmark feature of COVID-19, often present in the asymptomatic stage of the disease. Here, we show that CT scan presents a sensitivity of 95.48% (std.err=0.35%), vastly outperforming RT-PCR. Additionally, as diagnostic accuracy is influenced by disease prevalence, we argue that predictive values provide a more precise measure of CT reliability in the current pandemics. We generated a model showing that CT scan is endowed with a high negative predictive value (> 90%) and positive predictive value (69 - 84%), for the range of prevalence seen in countries with rampant dissemination. We conclude that CT is an expedite and reliable diagnostic tool to support first line triage of suspect COVID-19 patients in areas where the diffusion of the virus is widespread.


title: An Initial Investigation of Tungsten Inert Gas (TIG) Torch as Heat Source for Additive Manufacturing (AM) Process

text: Abstract Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes are gaining more steam in the last years, due to a series of advantages, such as capability of producing complex parts never possible before, low stock to be removed, complex parts in exotic materials, etc. However, energy efficiency, high costs and longer fabrication time, could be some of the drawbacks in the future. Welding processes can be used to produce pieces by AM techniques and their application has been intensified lately. Commonly, AM processes use MIG/MG and TIG and primarily with wire as stock material. Welding offers the advantage of producing large parts in lower time and material consistency is always good, since those processes have been greatly improved. In contrast, welding workpieces, generally, result with rough surfaces and poor geometric quality, which makes them not readily acceptable for most of the common machinery applications. The present work investigates the use TIG process with metal powder as stock material to produce workpieces, which are to be post processed by machining. The AM process is based on the Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) system. A simple one-axis moving system was produced to test the whole concept. Powder was preferred since it is readily available in variety of metallic alloys. Two powder grain sizes (Gs), three travel speed values (f) and three current levels (C) were tested producing weld beads of AISI H13 on a substrate of AISI 1020 plate. Beads were assessed by measuring external dimensions and looking at their microstructures. Additional tests were performed building straight wall stacking 10 layers with the best welding parameters found with the first trials. Results indicate that materials with good internal quality could be produced when making single beads and also building straight walls. These first trials show that the proposed process can be used as a promising hybrid process, using AM (PBF-TIG) and conventional machining at the same equipment. Future work will concentrate on adapting the welding and powder bed system in a machining center to further study the process.


title: COVID-19 death rates by age and sex and the resulting mortality vulnerability of countries and regions in the world

text: The growing number of series on COVID-19 deaths classified by age and sex, released by national health authorities, has allowed us to compute age and sex patterns of its mortality, based on 183,619 deaths from Western Europe and the USA. We highlight the specific age schedule of COVID-19 mortality and its pronounced excess male mortality and we then apply these COVID-19 death rates to world populations, in 2020. Our results underscore that considerable variations exist between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. When compared to younger countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality is shown to be 17 times higher in several industrialized countries of East Asia and Europe. There is a high correlation (r2= .44) between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates.


title: Stabilization of the coronavirus pandemic in Italy and global prospects

text: The pandemic caused by coronavirus COVID-19 are of great concern. A detailed scientific analysis of this phenomenon is still to come, but now it is urgently needed to evaluate the parameters of the disease dynamics in order to make some preliminary estimations of the number of cases and possible duration of the pandemic. The corresponding mathematical models must be simple enough, since their parameters are unknown and have to be estimated using limited statistical data sets. The SIR model, statistical approach to the parameter identification and the official WHO daily data about the confirmed cumulative number of cases were used to calculate the SIR curves and make some estimations and predictions. New cases in Italy could stop to appear after May 12, 2020, and the final number of such accumulated cases could be around 112 thousand. Some prospects for the global pandemic dynamics are discussed.


title: An SEIR Model with Contact Tracing and Age-Structured Social Mixing for COVID-19 outbreak

text: In December 2019 a severe acute respiratory syndrome now known as SARS-CoV-2 began to surge in Wuhan, China. The virus soon spread throughout the world to become a pandemic. Since the outbreak various measures were put in place to contain and control the spread, these interventions were mostly based on compartmental models in epidemiology with the main goal of controlling and monitoring the rate of the basic and effective reproduction number. In this paper, we propose an SEIR model where we incorporate contact tracing and age-structured social mixing. We show the explicit relation between contact tracing and social mixing and other relevant parameters of the proposed model. We derive a formula for the effective reproduction number which is expressed in terms of reported cases, tracing quantities and social mixing. We use this formula to determine the expectation value of the effective reproduction number in London, UK.


Pharmacy Interventions to Minimize Use of Personnel Protective Equipment and Limiting Caregiver Exposure During Coronavirus Disease 2019


docid: yejrcprn

title: J&J, BARDA advance coronavirus vaccine

text: Johnson & Johnson says it has identified a lead vaccine candidate for the new coronavirus that it will develop in partnership with the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) J&J began developing the vaccine in January, as soon as the virus’s sequence became available The firm says it and BARDA are willing to spend more than $1 billion to get the adenoviral vaccine into human clinical studies by September and available for emergency use in early 2021


title: Single-cell transcriptome profiling an adult human cell atlas of 15 major organs

text: Background As core units of organ tissues, cells of various types play their harmonious rhythms to maintain the homeostasis of human body. It is essential to identify characteristics of the cells in human organs and their regulatory networks for understanding biological mechanisms related to health and disease. However, a systematic and comprehensive single-cell transcriptional profile across multiple organs of normal human adults has been pending. Results we performed single-cell transcriptomes of 88,622 cells derived from 15 tissue organs of one adult donor and generated an adult human cell atlas (AHCA). The AHCA depicted 234 subtypes of cells, including major cell types such as T, B, myeloid, epithelial, and stromal cells, as well as novel cell types in skin, each of which was distinguished by multiple marker genes and transcriptional profiles and collectively contributed to the heterogeneity of major human organs. Moreover, TCR and BCR repertoire comparison and trajectory analyses revealed direct clonal sharing of T and B cells with various developmental states among different tissues. Furthermore, novel cell markers, transcription factors and ligand-receptor pairs were identified with potential functional regulations on maintaining the homeostasis of human cells among tissues. Conclusions The AHCA reveals the inter- and intra-organ heterogeneity of cell characteristics and provides a useful resource to uncover key events during the development of human diseases such as the recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the context of heterogeneity of cells and organs.