Business continuity planning (BCP) and related IT disaster recovery planning (IT DRP) have become established, respected and important disciplines in business. However, many of the assumptions underlying BCP/DRP planning today will NOT hold in a pandemic, writes technology risk expert Dr Patrick McConnell FBCS CITP CEng


title: Form factors for $B\to j_1j_2$ decays into two currents in QCD

text: We discuss the general properties of the $B$-meson decay form factors $F(q^2,q'^2)$, describing $B$-meson decays induced by two currents, e.g., $B$-decays into four leptons in the final state. We study the analytic properties of these complicated objects and identify those regions of $q^2$ and $q'^2$, where perturbative QCD can be applied for obtaining predictions for the physical form factors.


title: I evacuated my fieldwork site because of COVID-19. What now?

text: I sat in my apartment in Iquitos, Peru, facing a stark choice between my research and my well-being I was there to collect data for my dissertation, but my work was on hold because the Peruvian government had declared a national lockdown 9 days earlier as the COVID-19 crisis took hold At first, my plan was to wait out the pandemic in Peru But then I learned the country’s airports and borders would be closed indefinitely An evacuation flight for U S citizens was departing the next day It would probably be my last chance to leave, given that Iquitos is a remote city with no road link to the rest of the world So, in less than 24 hours, I had to decide whether to prioritize the research that means so much to me, or abandon my field season and evacuate


title: Short-Term Corticosteroids in SARS-CoV2 Patients: Hospitalists' Perspective

text: Background: Dexamethasone, a synthetic glucocorticoid, has anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive properties. There is a hyperinflammatory response involved in the clinical course of patients with pneumonia due to SARS-CoV2. To date, there has been no definite therapy for COVID-19. We reviewed the charts of SARS-CoV2 patients with pneumonia and moderate to severely elevated CRP and worsening hypoxemia who were treated with early, short-term dexamethasone. Methods: We describe a series of 21 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV2 and were admitted to The Miriam Hospital in Providence and were treated with a short course of dexamethasone, either alone or in addition to current investigative therapies. Results: CRP levels decreased significantly following the start of dexamethasone from mean initial levels of 129.52 to 40.73 mg/L at time of discharge. 71% percent of the patients were discharged home with a mean length of stay of 7.8 days. None of the patients had escalation of care, leading to mechanical ventilation. Two patients were transferred to inpatient hospice facilities on account of persistent hypoxemia, in line with their documented goals of care. Conclusions: A short course of systemic corticosteroids among inpatients with SARS-CoV2 with hypoxic respiratory failure was well tolerated, and most patients had improved outcomes. This limited case series may not offer concrete evidence towards the benefit of corticosteroids in COVID-19. However, patients positive response to short-term corticosteroids demonstrates that they may help blunt the severity of inflammation and prevent a severe hyperinflammatory phase, in turn reducing the length of stay, ICU admissions, and healthcare costs.


title: Computational search of hybrid human/ SARS-CoV-2 dsRNA reveals unique viral sequences that diverge from other coronavirus strains

text: The role of the RNAi/Dicer/Ago system to degrade RNA viruses has been elusive in mammals, which prompted authors to think that interferon (IFN) synthesis is essential in this clade relegating the RNAi defense strategy against viral infection as accessory function. We explore the theoretical possibilities that RNAi triggered by SARS-CoV-2 might degrade some host transcripts in the opposite direction although this hypothesis seems counter intuitive. SARS-CoV-2 genome was therefore computational searched for exact intra pairing within the viral RNA and also hybrid exact pairing with human transcriptome over a minimum 20 bases length. Minimal segments of 20 bases length of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were found based on the theoretical matching with existing complementary strands in the human host transcriptome. Few human genes potentially annealing with SARS-CoV-2 RNA, among them mitochondrial deubiquitinase USP30, a subunit of ubiquitin protein ligase complex FBXO21 along with two long coding RNAs were retrieved. The hypothesis that viral originated RNAi might mediate degradation of messengers of the host transcriptome was corroborated by clinical observation and phylogenetic comparative analysis indicating a strong specificity of these hybrid pairing sequences for both SARS-CoV-2 and human genomes.


title: Pathways of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Human Mobility across Countries

text: This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission worldwide through a spatial-temporal model with network dynamics. By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547,166 flights with a total capacity of 101,455,913 passengers among 22 countries during the past three months, we analyze the associations between international travel movement in six continents and the new infections in these countries. Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high transmission rates. Instead, they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to adjust the international movement restriction. The study highlights that international human mobility is the key to understand the transmission pathways and the small world phenomenon in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Anesthetic considerations in COVID-19 patients undergoing tracheostomy: Case report/ Consideraciones anestésicas en pacientes con COVID-19 sometidos a traqueostomía: Reporte de caso

text: At the end of 2019, the virus causing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, wich has affected more than 1.5 million people worldwide. The easy transmission by aerosols and direct contact, represents a challenge for personnel who manipulate the airway of these patients. We present the case of a 33-year-old woman diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia, under prolonged intubation scheduled for tracheostomy. The aim of this report is to review the anesthetic considerations during this procedure in this group of patients, in order to reduce the risk of contagion in health personnel.


title: Mental health status among family members of health care workers in Ningbo, China during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak: a Cross-sectional Study

text: Background: So far, the psychological impact of COVID-19 epidemic among family members of Health care workers (HCWs) in China has been neglected. The present cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the mental health status and related factors of families of HCWs in Designated Hospitals in Ningbo, China. Method: Family members of HCWs working in five designated hospitals in Ningbo, China were recruited between February 10th and 20th, 2020. Information on demographic variables, the COVID-19-related events in the lives, knowledge of COVID-19 and the working status of family members (that is, HCWs) was collected using online self-administered questionnaires. The mental health status were assessed using the Chinese version of Patient Health Questionnare-9 (PHQ-9) and Chinese version of Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7 ). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the main factors associated with the mental health conditions. Results: A total of 822 participants completed questionnaires correctly. (response rate of 95.80% ). The overall prevalence of GAD and depressive symptoms were 33.73%, and 29.35%, respectively. More times (hours) to focus on the COVID-19 (OR=1.215, 95%CI:1.061-1.391), family members (that is, HCWs) directly contact with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients (OR=1.477, 95%CI:1.069-2.040) were risk factors for GAD, while higher participants self-reported safety score for protective equipment of HCWs (OR=0.807, 95%CI:0.700-0.930) was a protective factor. More times (hours) to focus on the COVID-19 (OR=1.215, 95%CI:1.061-1.391), longer average working times per week for family members (that is, HCWs) (OR=1.017, 95%CI:1.005-1.029), being parents and other next of kin of HCWs were risk factors for depressive symptoms (OR=3.526, 95%CI:1.609-7.728 and OR=1.639, 95%CI:1.096-2.451, respectively). In addition, compared with participants who were HCWs, participants who were enterprise workers and were more likely to develop depressive symptoms(OR=1.750, 95%CI:1.104-2.776), while who were government employees or institutions employees were less likely to suffer depressive symptoms (OR=0.529, 95%CI:0.286-0.977). Conclusions: Psychological responses to COVID-19 have been dramatic among family members of HCWs during the rising phase of the outbreak. Our findings provide strong evidence to pay more attention on the mental health status of this vulnerable but often unseen populations during COVID-19 epidemic.


title: A nationwide survey of psychological distress among Chinese people in the COVID-19 epidemic: implications and policy recommendations

text: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic emerged in Wuhan, China, spread nationwide and then onto half a dozen other countries between December 2019 and early 2020. The implementation of unprecedented strict quarantine measures in China has kept a large number of people in isolation and affected many aspects of people’s lives. It has also triggered a wide variety of psychological problems, such as panic disorder, anxiety and depression. This study is the first nationwide large-scale survey of psychological distress in the general population of China during the COVID-19 epidemic.


title: Serial interval and time-varying reproduction number estimation for COVID-19 in West of Iran

text: There is no report on the serial interval (SI) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran, the present report aims to estimate the SI and time-varying R of COVID-19 in western Iran. In this study, there were 1477 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for Kermanshah from 22 February to 9 April. The close contacts of the confirmed cases were identified using telephone follow up of patients and their contacts. The SI distribution was used as an alternative. We fitted different models using the clinical onset dates of patients with their close contact (infector–infectee). Also, we applied a ‘serial interval from sample’ approach as a Bayesian methodology for estimating reproduction number. From 22 February to 29 March, 247 COVID-19 cases were confirmed by RT-PCR. Close contact between 21 patients (21 infector–infectee pairs), including 12 primary cases and 21 secondary cases, was confirmed. The mean and standard deviation of the SI were estimated as 5.71 and 3.89 days. The R varied from 0.79 to 1.88 for a 7-day time-lapse and ranged from 0.92 to 1.64 for a 14-day time-lapse on raw data. Also, the R varied from 0.83 to 1.84 for 7-day time-lapse and from 0.95 to 1.54 for a 14-day time-lapse using moving average data, respectively. It can be concluded that the low reproduction number for COVID-19 in Kermanshah province is an indication of the effectiveness of preventive and interventive programmes such as quarantine and isolation. Consequently, continuing these preventive measures is highly recommended.


title: Foodborne viruses 1 1 A concise version of this paper was discussed by the Codex Alimentarius, committee on food hygiene, 1999. FAO/WHO document CX/FH 99/11, Rome.

text: Abstract Foodborne and waterborne viral infections are increasingly recognized as causes of illness in humans. This increase is partly explained by changes in food processing and consumption patterns that lead to the worldwide availability of high-risk food. As a result, vast outbreaks may occur due to contamination of food by a single foodhandler or at a single source. Although there are numerous fecal–orally transmitted viruses, most reports of foodborne transmission describe infections with Norwalk-like caliciviruses (NLV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV), suggesting that these viruses are associated with the greatest risk of foodborne transmission. NLV and HAV can be transmitted from person to person, or indirectly via food, water, or fomites contaminated with virus-containing feces or vomit. People can be infected without showing symptoms. The high frequency of secondary cases of NLV illness and – to a lesser extent – of hepatitis A following a foodborne outbreak results in amplification of the problem. The burden of illness is highest in the elderly, and therefore is likely to increase due to the aging population. For HAV, the burden of illness may increase following hygienic control measures, due to a decreasing population of naturally immune individuals and a concurrent increase in the population at risk. Recent advances in the research of NLV and HAV have led to the development of molecular methods which can be used for molecular tracing of virus strains. These methods can be and have been used for the detection of common source outbreaks. While traditionally certain foods have been implicated in virus outbreaks, it is clear that almost any food item can be involved, provided it has been handled by an infected person. There are no established methods for detection of viruses in foods other than shellfish. Little information is available on disinfection and preventive measures specifically for these viruses. Studies addressing this issue are hampered by the lack of culture systems. As currently available routine monitoring systems exclusively focus on bacterial pathogens, efforts should be made to combine epidemiological and virological information for a combined laboratory-based rapid detection system for foodborne viruses. With better surveillance, including typing information, outbreaks of foodborne infections could be reported faster to prevent further spread.


title: Effect of ethanol cleaning on the permeability of FFP2 mask

text: In this study we assessed the effect of ethanol on the filtering properties of FFP2 masks. The permeability of parts of a FFP2 mask was measured before and after six cleanings with ethanol. As for any porous medium, the filtering properties of a mask are related to the size and tortuosity of the pores of the filter, and are quantified by its permeability. Any damage to the filter will change its permeability. We show here that after six cleaning cycles, the permeability remains very close to the permeability before cleaning. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the shortage of protective masks, this study suggests that ethanol could be used to sanitize a FFP2 mask without significantly altering its filtering properties. Additional measurements on FFP2 and N95 masks from different manufacturers need to be performed to validate this study.


title: The Presence of COVID-19 in Urine: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Literature

text: Purpose: To investigate the literature on the presence of COVID-19 virus in urine of infected patients and evaluate the attributes and clinical significance of COVID-19 in urine including probability of infection transmission through urine. Data sources: A systematic review of literature from December 2019 to 6th May 2020 was conducted on Pubmed, google scholar, ovid, scopus and ISI web of science. Study eligibility criteria: Studies which investigated urinary viral shedding of COVID-19 in infected patients included. Study appraisal and synthesis methods: Two reviewers selected relative studies and performed quality assessment of individual studies. Meta-analysis was performed the pooled case reports and case series. Fixed-effects model was used for analysis as no significant heterogeneity was observed between studies. Results: Thirty three studies were finally included in the systematic review including 19 case reports, 13 case series, and one cohort. Urinary samples from 430 patients were investigated. Ten studies reported the presence of COVID-19 in urinary samples from 16 patients. The rate of COVID-19 presence in urinary samples was 3.7%. Urinary viral load was low in most reports. The presence of virus in urine was not related to the disease course of the illness. Urinary COVID-19 was mostly detected from patients with moderate to severe disease (13 pts) but was also isolated from two children (one neonate and one 7 year-old girl) with mild disease. The pathogenicity of virus isolated from urine has been demonstrated in cell culture media in one study. Conclusions: This review highlights the low frequency of COVID-19 presence in urine of infected individuals and the potential of isolated virus for cytopathic effects. Therefore the probability of infection transmission through urine can be suggested. Caution must be exerted when dealing with urine of patients infected with COVID-19 including medical interventions like endoscopy and urethral catheterization.


title: An engineered stable mini-protein to plug SARS-Cov-2 Spikes

text: The novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is the etiological agent of the current pandemic COVID-19. Like other coronaviruses, this novel virus relies on the surface Spike glycoprotein to access the host cells, mainly through the interaction of its Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) with the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Therefore, molecular entities able to interfere with binding of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein to ACE2 have a great potential to inhibit viral entry. Starting from the available structural data on the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and the host ACE2 receptor, we here engineered a mini-protein with the aim of creating a soluble and stable Spike interactor. This mini-protein, which was recombinantly produced in high yields, possesses a stable α helical conformation and is able to interact with the RBD of glycosylated Spike protein from SARS-CoV-2 with nanomolar affinity, as measured by microscale thermophoresis. By plugging the Spike protein, our mini-protein constitutes a valid tool for the development of treatments against different types of coronavirus.


title: Epidemiologic Characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou, China

text: At the end of 2019, a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbroke in Wuhan, China, and spread to Guizhou province on January of 2020. To acquire the epidemiologic characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou, China, we collected data on 162 laboratory-confirmed cases related to COVID-19. We described the demographic characteristics of the cases and estimated the incubation period, serial interval and basic reproduction number. We also presented two representative case studies in Guizhou province -- Case Study 1 was an example of asymptomatic carrier; and Case Study 2 was an example of a large and complex infection chain that involved four different districts spanning three provinces and eight families. With an estimation of 8 days incubation period and 6 days serial interval, our results indicate that there may exist infectiousness during the incubation period for 2019-nCoV. This increases the difficulty of screening or identifying cases related to COVID-19.


COVID-19 pandemic modeling is fraught with uncertainties


title: Perception of emergent epidemic of COVID-2019 / SARS CoV-2 on the Polish Internet

text: Problem: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus infection and COVID-2019 disease, there is an urgent need to analyze COVID-2019 epidemic perception in Poland. This would enable authorities for preparation of specific actions minimizing public health and economic risks. Methods: We study the perception of COVID-2019 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet (on Twitter, Google, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry) from January 2020 to 12.03.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.2020). To this end we utilize data mining, social network analysis, natural language processing techniques. Each examined internet platform was analyzed for representativeness and composition of the target group. Results: We identified three major cluster of the interest before disease introduction on the topic COVID-2019: China- and Italy-related peaks on all platforms, as well as a peak on social media related to the recent special law on combating COVID-2019. Besides, there was a peak in interest on the day of officially confirmed introduction as well as an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government declared war against disease with a massive mitigation program. From sociolingistic perspective, we found that concepts and issues of threat, fear and prevention prevailed before introduction. After introduction, practical concepts about disease and epidemic dominate. Twitter reflected the clear, structural division of the Polish political sphere. We were able to identify potential sources of misinformation as well as key actors (especially early adopters) and influencers. Conclusions: Traditional and social media not only reflect reality, but also create it. Polish authorities, having a reliable analysis of the perception of the problem, could optimally prepare and manage the social dimension of the current epidemic and future ones. Due to filter bubbles observed on Twitter, public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected. For greater penetration, it might be necessary to diversify information channels to reach as many people as possible which might already be happening. Moreover, it might be necessary to prevent the spread of disinformation, which is now possible due to the special law on combating COVID-2019.


title: Standard operating procedures for SARS-CoV-2 detection by a clinical diagnostic RT-LAMP assay

text: The ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 calls for rapid and cost-effective methods to accurately identify infected individuals. The vast majority of patient samples is assessed for viral RNA presence by RT-qPCR. Our biomedical research institute, in collaboration between partner hospitals and an accredited clinical diagnostic laboratory, established a diagnostic testing pipeline that has reported on more than 40,000 RT-qPCR results since its commencement at the beginning of April 2020. However, due to ongoing demand and competition for critical resources, alternative testing strategies were sought. In this work, we present a clinically-validated standard operating procedure (SOP) for high-throughput SARS- CoV-2 detection by RT-LAMP in 25 minutes that is robust, reliable, repeatable, sensitive, specific, and inexpensive.


title: Modelling information-dependent social behaviors in response to lockdowns: the case of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy

text: The COVID-19 pandemic started in January 2020 has not only threatened world public health, but severely impacted almost every facet of lives including behavioral and psychological aspects. In this paper we focus on the 'human element' and propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects on the COVID-19 epidemic of social behavioral changes in response to lockdowns. We consider a SEIR-like epidemic model where that contact and quarantine rates are assumed to depend on the available information and rumors about the disease status in the community. The model is applied to the case of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We consider the period that stretches between February 24, 2020 when the first bulletin by the Italian Civil Protection was reported and May 18, 2020 when the lockdown restrictions have been mostly removed. The role played by the information-related parameters is determined by evaluating how they affect suitable outbreak-severity indicators. We estimated that citizens compliance with mitigation measures played a decisive role in curbing the epidemic curve by preventing a duplication of deaths and about 46% more contagions.


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title: Genomic epidemiology put to the test against COVID-19

text: In early April, a paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) raised the eyebrows of a number of genomic epidemiologists It suggested that there were three distinct variants of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, spreading in different regions of the world—one predominantly in Australia and North America, one in China, and one in Europe It also suggested that the variant circulating in North America and Australia was older than the one that appeared in Wuhan, China, at the end of December (Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020, DOI: 10 1073/pnas 2004999117) If this were true, the outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, would have started outside Wuhan, which contradicts scientific consensus Some genomic epidemiologists, who track the genomes of pathogens to understand how diseases spread, thought that although the data the PNAS paper used were sound, the paper’s analytical View: PDF ;Full Text HTML


title: The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Liver Injury in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

text: Abstract Background: The evidence for the incidence and severity of liver injury in Chinese patients with COVID-19 is still controversial. Aims: The purpose of this study was to summarize the incidence of liver injury and the differences between liver injury markers among different patients with COVID-19 in China. Methods: Computer searches of PubMed, Embase, CNKI and medRxiv were used to obtain reports on the incidence and markers of liver injury in Chinese patients with COVID-19, from January 1, 2020 to April 10, 2020. (No. CRD42020181350) Results: A total of 57 reports from China were included, including 9889 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. The results of the meta-analysis showed that among the patients with early COVID-19 infection in China, the incidence of liver injury events was 24.7% (95% CI, 23.4%-26.4%). Liver injury in severe patients was more common than that in non-severe patients, with a risk ratio of 2.07 (95% CI, 1.77 to 2.43). Quantitative analysis showed that the severe the coronavirus infection, the higher the level of AST, ALT, TB, ALP, GGT and the lower the level of ALB. The changing trend of the appeal index was similar in ICU patients and dead patients. Conclusion: There is a certain risk of liver injury in Chinese patients with COVID-19, and the risk and degree of liver injury are related to the severity of COVID-19.


title: The Recent Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Review of Issues for Indian Pharmaceutical Exports

text: The world today is facing a major challenge in adjusting to the adverse effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) spread Meeting the demand for several key drugs and preventive medical supplies has emerged as major concern in many countries India has over the years consolidated its position as a major producer and exporter of not only bulk drugs and formulations but also other medical provisions and equipment The present commentary makes an attempt to understand the possible trade opportunities for India's pharmaceutical sector in light of the recent export policy interventions An analysis of the recent export policy adjustments reflects the evolving attitude of the country towards domestic risk perception and commitment to support other countries The trade opportunities for India are analysed next with the help of select trade indices, and it appears that there is significant scope for enhancing India's global competitiveness in several product groups The evolving trends have then been judged by exploring their plausible implications from a theoretical standpoint It has been concluded that in order to meet the growing world demands for these products, India needs to enhance productivity of the upstream segments through a rigorous policy framework


title: Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia

text: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Colombia from a traveler arriving from Italy on February 26, 2020. To date, available data on the origins and number or introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the country are limited. Here, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 43 clinical samples and-together with another 73 genomes sequences available from the country-we investigated the emergence and the routes of importation of COVID-19 into Colombia using epidemiological, historical air travel and phylogenetic observations. Our study provided evidence of multiple introductions, mostly from Europe, with at least 12 lineages being documented. Phylogenetic findings validated the linkage of epidemiologically-linked transmission chains. Our results demonstrate the advantages of genome sequencing to complement COVID-19 outbreak investigation and underscores that human mobility and genetic data are relevant to complete epidemiological investigation and better characterize virus transmission dynamics at local scales.


title: Evaluation of performance of two SARS-CoV-2 Rapid whole-blood finger-stick IgM-IgGCombined Antibody Tests

text: Background The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the infectious respiratory disease called COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease). In response to the growing COVID-19 pandemic, Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) have been developed to detect specific antibodies, IgG and IgM, to SARS-CoV-2 virus in human whole blood. We conducted a real-life study to evaluate the performance of two RDTs, COVID-PRESTO and COVID-DUO, compared to the gold standard, RT-PCR. Methods RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2 was performed from nasopharyngeal swab specimens collected in adult patients visiting the infectious disease department at the hospital (Orleans, France). Fingertip whole blood samples taken at different time points after onset of the disease were tested with RDTs. The specificity and sensitivity of the rapid test kits compared to test of reference (RT-PCR) were calculated. Results Among 381 patients with symptoms of COVID-19 who went to the hospital for a diagnostic, 143 patients were RT-PCR negative. Results of test with RDTs were all negative for these patients, indicating a specificity of 100% for both RDTs. In the RT-PCR positive subgroup (n=238), 133 patients were tested with COVID-PRESTO and 129 patients were tested with COVID-DUO (24 patients tested with both). The further the onset of symptoms was from the date of collection, the greater the sensitivity. The sensitivity of COVID-PRESTO test ranged from 10.00% for patients having experienced their 1st symptoms from 0 to 5 days ago to 100% in patients where symptoms had occurred more than 15 days before the date of tests. For COVID-DUO test, the sensitivity ranged from 35.71% [0-5 days] to 100% (> 15 days). Conclusion COVID-PRESTO and DUO RDTs turned out to be very specific (none false positive) and to be sensitive enough after 15 days from onset of symptom. These easy to use IgG/IgM combined test kits are the first ones allowing a screening with capillary blood sample, by typing from a finger prick. These rapid tests are particularly interesting for screening in low resource settings.


title: Mutation density changes in SARS-CoV-2 are related to the pandemic stage but to a lesser extent in the dominant strain with mutations in spike and RdRp

text: Since its emergence in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the origin and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 have been among the most debated issues related to COVID-19. Throughout its spread around the world, the viral genome continued acquiring new mutations and some of them became widespread. Among them, 14408 C>T and 23403 A>G mutations in RdRp and S, respectively, became dominant in Europe and the US, which led to debates regarding their effects on the mutability and transmissibility of the virus. In this study, we aimed to investigate possible differences between time-dependent variation of mutation densities (MDe) of viral strains that carry these two mutations and those that do not. Our analyses at the genome and gene level led to two important findings: First, time-dependent changes in the average MDe of circulating SARS-CoV-2 genomes showed different characteristics before and after the beginning of April, when daily new case numbers started levelling off. Second, this pattern was much delayed or even non-existent for the “mutant” (MT) strain that harbored both 14408 C>T and 23403 A>G mutations. Although these differences were not limited to a few hotspots, it is intriguing that the MDe increase is most evident in two critical genes, S and Orf1ab, which are also the genes that harbor the defining mutations of the MT genotype. The nature of these unexpected relationships warrant further research.


title: Effect of Dry Heat and Autoclave Decontamination Cycles on N95 FFRs

text: Current shortages of Filtering Facepiece Respirators (FFRs) have created a demand for effective methods for N95 decontamination and reuse. Before implementing any reuse strategy it is important to determine what effects the proposed method has on the physical functioning of the FFR. Here we investigate the effects of two potential methods for decontamination; dry heat at 95 {degrees}C, and autoclave treatments. We test both fit and filtration efficiency for each method. For the dry heat treatment we consider the 3M 1860, 3M 1870, and 3M8210+ models. After five cycles of the dry heating method, all three FFR models pass both fit and filtration tests, showing no degradation. For the autoclave tests we consider the 3M 1870, and the 3M 8210+. We find significant degradation of the FFRs following the 121 {degrees}C autoclave cycles. The molded mask tested (3M 8210+) failed fit testing after just 1 cycle in the autoclave. The pleated (3M 1870) mask passed fit testing for 5 cycles, but failed filtration testing. The 95 {degrees}C dry heat cycle is scalable to over a thousand masks per day in a hospital setting, and is above the temperature which has been shown to achieve the requisite 3 log kill of SARS-CoV-2[1], making it a promising method for N95 decontamination and reuse.


Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders


title: Modest effects of contact reduction measures on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in the most affected European countries and the US

text: Population density, behaviour and cultural habits strongly influence the spread of pathogens. Consequently, key epidemiological parameters may vary from country to country. Many estimates of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 strongly depend on testing frequency and case definitions. The fatal cases due to SARS-CoV2 could be a more reliable parameter, since missing of deaths is less likely. We analysed the dynamics of new infection and death cases to estimate the daily reproduction numbers (Rt) and the effectiveness of control measures in the most affected European Countries and the US. In summary, calculating Rt based on the daily number of deaths as well as of new infections may lead to more reliable estimates than those based on infection cases alone, as death based Rt are expected to be less susceptible to testing bias or limited capacities.


title: Can Nebulised Heparin Reduce Time to Extubation in SARS CoV 2 The CHARTER Study Protocol

text: Introduction: COVID 19 is associated with the development of ARDS displaying the typical features of diffuse alveolar damage with extensive pulmonary coagulation activation resulting in fibrin deposition in the microvasculature and formation of hyaline membranes in the air sacs. The anticoagulant actions of nebulised heparin limit fibrin deposition and progression of lung injury. Serendipitously, unfractionated heparin also inactivates the SARS CoV 2 virus and prevents its entry into mammalian cells. Nebulisation of heparin may therefore limit both fibrin mediated lung injury and inhibit pulmonary infection by SARS CoV 2. For these reasons we have initiated a multicentre international trial of nebulised heparin in patients with COVID 19. Methods and intervention: Mechanically ventilated patients with confirmed or strongly suspected SARS CoV 2 infection, hypoxaemia and an acute pulmonary opacity in at least one lung quadrant on chest Xray, will be randomised to nebulised heparin 25,000 Units every 6 hours or standard care for up to 10 days while mechanically ventilated. The primary outcome is the time to separation from invasive ventilation to day 28, where non survivors to day 28 are treated as though not separated from invasive ventilation. Ethics and dissemination: The study protocol has been submitted to the human research and ethics committee of St Vincents Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Submission is pending in other jurisdictions. Results of this study will be published in scientific journals and presented at scientific meetings.


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title: Informations de l’OMS pour la gestion de l’épidémie de COVID-19 en milieu de travail, au 23 mars 2020


title: A novel mathematics model of covid-19 with fractional derivative. Stability and numerical analysis

text: a mathematical model depicting the spread of covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population covid-19 intervention in Italy. The model has 8 components leading to system of 8 ordinary differential equations. In this paper, we investigate the model using the concept of fractional differential operator. A numerical method based on the Lagrange polynomial was used to solve the system equations depicting the spread of COVID-19. A detailed investigation of stability including reproductive number using the next generation matrix, and the Lyapunov were presented in detail. Numerical simulations are depicted for various fractional orders.


title: Genetic drift and environmental spreading dynamics of COVID-19

text: Objective To delineate the genetic and environmental determinants of COVID-19 spreading. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Spain, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Norway. Participants All laboratory-confirmed infection cases (n=168,089) collected from February 21st to April 14th 2020. Main outcome measures Infection spreading velocity according to viral mutation load and to climate region. Results The mean doubling time of COVID-19 was 6.63 days in northern Italy, 5.87 days in central areas, and 5.38 days in southern Italy, with shorter COVID-19 doubling time in warmer regions. Spain extended this trend, with a mean COVID-19 doubling time of 4.2 days. At the other end of the spectrum, slower diffusion across progressively colder regions was observed in Scandinavia, with 9.4 days COVID-19 doubling time in Sweden, 10.8 days in Finland and 12.95 days in Norway. Mutations and mutation rates of SARS-CoV-2 versus COVID-19 spreading were analyzed worldwide. Models of increased aggressiveness of SARS-CoV-2 upon progressive acquisition of genetic changes were not supported by regional mutation data. Conclusion Current propagation models suggest dependence of COVID-19 pandemic spreading on wintertime conditions, with expected waning over the summer. Our findings indicate association of COVID-19 to a sharp North/South climate gradient, with faster spreading in southern regions. Thus, warmer climate conditions may not limit SARS-CoV-2 diffusion. Very cold regions may be better spared by recurrent courses of infection.


title: COVID-19 presenting as anosmia and dysgeusia in New York City emergency departments, March - April, 2020

text: Background: Increasing evidence has been emerging of anosmia and dysgeusia as frequently reported symptoms in COVID-19. Improving our understanding of these presenting symptoms may facilitate the prompt recognition of the disease in emergency departments and prevent further transmission. Methods: We examined a cross-sectional cohort using New York City emergency department syndromic surveillance data for March and April 2020. Emergency department visits for anosmia and/or dysgeusia were identified and subsequently matched to the Electronic Clinical Laboratory Reporting System to determine testing results for SARS-CoV-2. Results: Of the 683 patients with anosmia and/or dysgeusia included, SARS-CoV-2 testing was performed for 232 (34%) and 168 (72%) were found to be positive. Median age of all patients presenting with anosmia and/or dysgeusia symptoms was 38, and 54% were female. Anosmia and/or dysgeusia was the sole complaint of 158 (23%) patients, of whom 35 were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 23 (66%) were positive. While the remaining patients presented with at least one other symptom, nearly half of all patients (n=334, 49%) and more than a third of those who tested positive (n=62, 37%) did not have any of the CDC-established symptoms used for screening of COVID-19 such as fever, cough, shortness of breath, or sore throat. Conclusions and Relevance: Anosmia and/or dysgeusia have been frequent complaints among patients presenting to emergency departments during the COVID-19 pandemic, and, while only a small proportion of patients ultimately underwent testing for SARS-CoV-19, the majority of patients tested have been positive. Anosmia and dysgeusia likely represent underrecognized symptoms of COVID-19 but may have important future implications in disease diagnosis and surveillance.


docid: djvheqtk

title: Finding the future in policy discourse: an analysis of city resilience plans

text: Managing future uncertainty is the essence of planning. How planners conceptualize the future therefore has important practical and normative implications as contemporary decisions have long-term impacts that may be irreversible and distribute costs and benefits across society. A discourse analysis of strategies prepared under the 100 Resilient Cities programme reveals that while they are ostensibly forward-looking and cognizant of uncertainty, most presume a knowable future (epistemic certainty) and focus on well-understood or recently experienced risks. Few acknowledge the future’s inherent unknowability (ontic uncertainty). Those that do emphasize community self-help; others describe top-down, government-led initiatives. Most strategies also present an image of societal consensus, downplaying the potential for legitimate disagreement over means and ends (discursive uncertainty). These findings suggest that new conceptualizations of future uncertainty have had limited impacts on planning practice.


Health and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia


title: Longitudinal analysis of laboratory findings during the process of recovery for patients with COVID-19

text: Objective To explore longitudinal change patterns of key laboratory tests in patients with COVID-19, and to identify independent prognostic factors by examining the associations between laboratory findings and outcomes of patients. Methods The multicenter study prospectively included 59 patients with COVID-19 treated at Jilin province from January 21, 2020 to May 5, 2020. Laboratory tests were included haematological, biochemical, and immunological tests. Results Laboratory findings, the characteristics of epidemiological and demographic data were extracted from electronic medical records. Eosinopenia was shown in 52.6% cases at onset, and the average value of eosinophil continued to significantly increase thereafter. Lymphopenia was found in 40.4% cases at onset, and the average value of lymphocyte was slowly elevated after day 5. Thrombocytopenia was shown in 12.3% cases at onset, and the average value of mean platelet volume was decreased sharply after day 7. The values of aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase, creatinine kinase-muscle/brain activity, and cardiac troponin I, serum cardiac markers, were beyond the upper limit of RI from 6.1% to 30.6% at onset. The abnormity of liver function tests, kidney function tests, electrolytes was 2.0%~59.2%, 2.0%~4.1%, 6.0%~30.0%, respectively. Eosinophil, platelet and carbondioxide combining power were selected as the prognostic factors. Conclusions The haematological, biochemical, and immunological tests were found significant abnormity at onset and longitudinal change patterns in the patients with COVID-19. Age, Eosinophil, PLT and CO2 may used to predict the recovery probability. Risk stratification and management could be improved for the patients with COVID-19 according to temporal trajectories of laboratory tests.


Data-in-terror: ad hoc local epistemologies and social life in crisis


title: Safety Stock: Predicting demand on the supply chain in Brazilian hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic

text: Background: Many challenges lie ahead for COVID-19, not only related to the acceleration of the pandemic, but also to the prediction of the hospital's personal protective equipment to accommodate the explosive demand. Due to the situation of uncertainty, the hospital administration encourages the excess stock of these materials, causing excess products in some hospitals, but shortages in others. Although three main factors limit the number of patients seen at a hospital: the number of beds available, the number of equipment, and, above all, the number of health professionals available at the hospital, per shift. Objective: In this scenario, a challenge is to build an easy-to-use computational tool to predict the demand for personal protective equipment in hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, with updating in real-time. Methods: We propose naive statistical modeling, which combines historical data on the consumption of personal protective equipment by hospitals, current protocols for their uses and epidemiological data related to the disease, in order to build predictive models for the demand for personal protective equipment in Brazilian hospitals during the pandemic. We then embed our modeling in a tool that can provide the safety stock for a particular hospital. Results: Our tool presents forecasts of consumption/demand for personal protective equipment over time, indicating the moment when the hospital reaches maximum consumption, the estimate of how long it will work in this state, and when it will leave it. Conclusion: With our forecasting, a hospital may have estimated, based on its stock levels and possible new purchases, its needs related to a specific personal protective equipment, which allows for the adoption of strategies to control and keep the stock at safety levels to the demand. As a direct consequence, it enables interchange and cooperation between hospitals, aiming to maximize the care during the pandemic.


title: Importance of Social Distancing: Modeling the spread of 2019-nCoV using Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-t model

text: Background The Novel Coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, Hubei, China, has raised global concerns and has been declared a pandemic. The infection shows the primary symptoms of pneumonia and has an incubation period, with the majority of people showing symptoms within 14 days. Online Social Networks are the closest simulations of real-world networks and have similar topology characteristics. This article simulates the spread and control of the nCoV-19 using the SIQR-t model to highlight the importance of self-quarantine and exercise of proper health care as a method to prevent the spread of the virus. Method The article uses the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered model with modification, introducing 14 different Infected states depending on the number of days the host has been carrying the infection. We simulate the spread of 2019-nCoV on human interaction similar graph taken from Online Social Network Epinions, of about 75000 nodes, similar to a small town or settlement. The infection rates depend on the sanitation and cleanliness these people exercise. Results When people practice self-quarantine and hygiene, aided by the governmental efforts of testing and quarantine, the cumulative number of affected people fall drastically. The decrease is apparent in time-based simulations of the spread received from the study. Conclusion The 2019-nCoV is a highly infectious zoonotic virus. It has spread like a pandemic, and governments across the world have launched quarantines. The results of the SIQR-t model indicate that hygiene and social-distancing can reduce its impact and sharply decrease the infection scale. Individual efforts are key to the control.


title: Cryo-EM structure of coronavirus-HKU1 haemagglutinin esterase reveals architectural changes arising from prolonged circulation in humans

text: The human betacoronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 (subgenus Embecovirus) arose from separate zoonotic introductions, OC43 relatively recently and HKU1 apparently much longer ago. Embecovirus particles are studded with two types of surface projections called S (for spike) and HE (for haemagglutinin-esterase), with S mediating receptor-binding and membrane fusion and HE acting as a receptor-destroying enzyme. Together, they promote dynamic virion attachment to glycan-based receptors with 9-O-acetylated sialic acid as main constituent. We recently showed that adaptation of HKU1 and OC43 to replication in the human respiratory tract involved loss-of-function mutations in the lectin domain of HE. Here we present the cryo-EM structure of the ∼80 kDa, heavily glycosylated HKU1 HE at a global resolution of 3.4 Å. Comparison to existing HE structures reveals a drastically truncated lectin domain, incompatible with sialic acid binding, but with the structure and function of the HE esterase domain left intact. Our cryo-EM structure, in combination with mass spectrometry analysis, also describes the extent of glycosylation on the now redundant lectin domain, which forms a putative glycan shield. The findings further our insight into the evolution and host adaptation of human embecoviruses and also demonstrate the utility of cryo-EM for studying small, heavily glycosylated proteins which are intractable to X-ray crystallography.


title: Model Based Covid-19 Case Studies in the UK, the USA and India

text: Time dependent spread of Covid-19 among the population of the UK, the USA and India is analyzed using a recently developed mathematical model [1-3]. Results of model predictions of case growth in these countries during the next six weeks are also presented. The model is applicable to case studies and near term predictions for other countries and regions. Key words: Coronavirus, Covid-19, SARS, model, analysis, data, hospital, ICU, infectious disease, UK, USA, India


title: Little Risk of the COVID-19 Resurgence on Students in China (outside Hubei) Caused by School Reopening

text: Objective: School reopening has not yet started in China where the COVID-19 outbreak has reached ending stage, largely due to a great concern about COVID-19 infections on students. We attempted to quantitatively evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infections on students caused by school reopening. Study design: We collected the data of the numbers of teachers, population size and newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days in typical provinces/cities of China, and then analyzed the risk of COVID-19 infections in schools with respect to each province/city. Methods: A step-by-step procedure was explored to calculate the probability of COVID-19 infections on students as transmitted from infected teachers. Two critical assumptions for analysis were proposed: (i) only locally generated cases were counted while imported cases were omitted; (ii) the secondary attack rate of the COVID-19 virus in schools is similar to that in households in China, ranging from 3-10%. Results: The probability of COVID-19 resurgence within one week on students of primary, middle and high schools in China (outside Hubei) is extremely low (<0.2%) in each province/city, and such probability can be updated daily and weekly based on the newly confirmed cases in the past 14 days. In some areas without newly confirmed cases in the past 14 days, the risk is zero. Conclusions: Our work provides guidance for local governments to make risk level-based policies for school reopening. Currently, the risk of COVID-19 infections on students is extremely low in China (outside Hubei) and therefore school reopening can be initiated without the endanger of infections on students.


title: No Evidence for Reduced Hospital Admissions or Increased Deaths from Stroke or Heart Attack During COVID-19

text: Claims that hospital admissions for heart attack and stroke have declined over the COVID-19 pandemic have been made in at least 16 newspaper articles in the UK (Table 1). In contrast, data from the West Midlands Ambulance Service (WMAS) have not reported any reduction in call-outs for patients with stroke or ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI).1 However, not all admissions with these diseases arrive via the Accident and Emergency (A&E) department. Furthermore, a study from Italy showed around a 30% reduction in acute coronary syndrome related hospital admission during the COVID-19 crisis.2 We therefore examined admissions to University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, which is the UK's largest hospital group and lies within the WMAS footprint.


title: Clinical characteristics and reasons of different duration from onset to release from quarantine for patients with COVID-19 Outside Hubei province, China.

text: Objective: To find out more characteristics and rules of COVID-19 by analyzing the clinical course of COVID-19 patients in a region outside Hubei province. Methods: 37 cases diagnosed adult COVID-19 cases of general characteristics, history of epidemiology, chronic underlying diseases,clinical symptoms and complications, chest CT, biochemical monitoring, severity assessment, treatment and outcome were retrospectively analyzed, and according to the duration from onset to release from quarantine were divided into 20-day group and > 20-day group, compare the similarities and differences between the two groups. Results: Among the 37 patients, 5 were mild, 30 were moderate, 1 was severe and 1 was critical. All the patients were released from quarantine without death. The average duration from onset to release from quarantine was 20.2±6.6 days, The average length of stay from onset to hospitalization was 4.1±3.7 days, and hospitalization duration average 16.1± 6.2 days. The average age was 44.3±1.67 years. 78.4% of cases were caused by exposure to a confirmed patient or the workplace of a confirmed patient. The main symptoms were cough (67.6%), fever( 62.2%), shortness of breath (32.4%), fatigue (24.3%), sore throat (21.6%,) vomiting or diarrhea (21.6%). The white blood cell count was decreased in 27.0% of the patients, and the lymphocyte count was decreased in 62.2% of the patients, of which 43.5% patients were <0.6 × 109/L. On admission, 86.5% of patients with chest CT showed pneumonia, including some asymptomatic patients. 68.8% of patients showed bilateral infiltration. In the > 20-day group, the average age was 49.9±1.38 years old, and the duration from onset to hospitalization was 5.5±3.9 days. Compared with the ≤20-day group, the age was older and and duration was longer, P < 0.05. All the 7 asymptomatic patients were ≤20-day group. When 37 patients were released from quarantine, the white blood cell count of 16.2% patients was <4.0 × 109/L, and the lymphocyte count of 59.5% patients was <1.1×109/L, and the absolute count of white blood cells and lymphocytes was 5.02 ± 1.34×109/L and 1.03± 0.34×109/L respectively , compared with those on admission, P >0.05. Conclusion: The majority of COVID-19 cases in the study area were mild and moderate, with good clinical outcomes. There were some special characteristics in the clinical process. The reasons of duration from onset to release from quarantine were complex. There was no significant change in the number of granulocytes at the time of release from quarantine compared to the time of admission.


title: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Serology in Asymptomatic Healthcare Professionals: Preliminary Experience of a Tertiary Italian Academic Center.

text: We investigated the SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody titers in 133 asymptomatic healthcare providers working at the Department of Laboratory Medicine of our tertiary center. A commercial chemiluminescence immunoassay, validated according to the ISO15189 standard requirements, was used. All the enrolled healthcare professionals underwent, simultaneously to the blood sampling, a nasopharyngeal swab for molecular testing with quantitative reverse-transcriptase-based polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). An overall positiveness of 5.25% was found. We strongly promote a wide use of validated serologic assays in asymptomatic, healthy individuals, as a crucial information for epidemiological surveillance.


title: Applying chemical reaction transition theory to predict the latent transmission dynamics of coronavirus outbreak in China

text: The recent outbreak of the Covid-19 suggests a rather long latent phase that precludes public health officials to predict the pandemic transmission on time. Here we apply mass action laws and chemical transition theory to propose a kinetic model that accounts for viral transmission dynamics at the latent phase. This model is useful for authorities to make early preventions and control measurements that stop the spread of a deadly new virus.


title: Psychological Support System for Hospital Workers During the Covid-19 Outbreak: Rapid Design and Implementation of the Covid-Psy Hotline

text: BACKGROUND: The worldwide coronavirus outbreak has put hospital workers under extreme stress with possible mental health problems. In this context, we decided to rapidly design and implement a psychological support system for all hospital workers in Paris during the Covid-19 outbreak. METHODS: We built a hotline in 3 days using the following steps: 1) official mandate, 2) request for the creation of hotline numbers, 3) formulation of psychological intervention materials and policies, 4) call for volunteer certified psychologists, 5) call for volunteer certified psychiatrists in case of psychiatric cases, 6) creation of an anonymous and protected database, and 7) communication and regular reminders about the existence of the hotline for hospital workers. RESULTS: After the first 26 days, we received 149 calls with a mean of 5.73 calls/day (SD=3.22). The average call duration was 18.5 min (min=1; max=65min; SD=14.7), and mostly women (86%) called. The mean age was 32.7 years old (SD=11.0). Calls from hospital workers were from all professions; though mostly represented by frontline healthcare workers, non-frontline departments also called (total of 44 departments). Reasons for calling were anxiety symptoms (n=73, 49%), request for hotline information (n=31, 20.8%), worries about Covid-19 (n=23, 15.44%), exhaustion (n=17, 11.41%), trauma reactivation (n=10, 6.11%), insomnia (n=9, 6.0%), anger (n=8, 5.37%), depressive (n=6, 4.02%), and psychotic symptoms (n=3, 2.01%). Regarding referrals, 105 (70.47%) of them were referred to psychosocial, Covid, and general support. CONCLUSIONS: This psychological support system can be easily duplicated and seems to benefit all hospital professions that all appeared psychologically affected.


title: Fujifilm tests favipiravir as COVID-19 treatment

text: Fujifilm is ramping up production of its antiviral treatment favipiravir, one of many approved drugs being tested as a possible treatment for COVID-19 Phase III clinical trials are ongoing in Japan, and the government has ordered 2 million treatment courses In the US, Fujifilm started Phase II trials earlier this month Favipiravir, which Fujifilm sells under the brand name Avigan, has been approved in Japan since 2014 to treat influenza and other viral strains that don’t respond to other drugs “Avigan tablets are expected to have efficacy against infection with the new coronavirus in view of its characteristic mechanism of action,” says a Fujifilm spokesperson,although the company has yet to present evidence of efficacy The Japanese government stated its preference for Avigan to be made in Japan using domestically produced materials Toyama Chemical, the Fujifilm subsidiary that developed Avigan, will fulfill part of its requirement for a key intermediate, diethyl


title: Master Citation Index

text: Unknown


title: Healthcare workers experiences of working on the frontline and views about support during COVID-19 and comparable pandemics: A rapid review and meta-synthesis

text: Healthcare workers across the world have risen to the demands of treating COVID-19 patients, potentially at significant cost to their own health and wellbeing. There has been increasing recognition of the potential mental health impact of COVID-19 on frontline healthcare workers and growing calls to provide psychosocial support for them. However, little attention has so far been paid to understanding the impact of working on a pandemic from healthcare workers own perspectives or what their views are about support. This rapid review identified 40 qualitative studies which have explored healthcare workers experiences and views from previous pandemics, including and comparable to COVID-19. Meta-synthesis of this qualitative data using thematic analysis derived eight key themes which transcended pandemics, time, and geographical boundaries. This pandemic is not unprecedented; the themes that arose from previous pandemics were remarkably resonant with what we are hearing about the impact of COVID-19 globally today. We have an opportunity to learn from the lessons of these previous pandemics, mitigate the negative mental health impact of COVID-19 and support the longer-term wellbeing of the healthcare workforce worldwide.


title: Accelerated hyaluronan concentration as the primary driver of morbidity and mortality in high-risk COVID-19 patients: with therapeutic introduction of an oral hyaluronan inhibitor in the prevention of "Induced Hyaluronan Storm" Syndrome

text: Background To date, more than 161,000 people have died from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) yet the fundamental drivers of the morbidity and mortality remain uncertain. Clinicians worldwide appear to be at a loss to know how to prevent and treat the severe respiratory distress in these patients effectively. Consequently, the fundamental mechanisms leading to death in high-risk patients with COVID-19 need to be discovered and addressed with urgency. Despite a marked drop in frequency, the post-mortem autopsy remains an essential part of both discovering the cause of death in a particular individual, but also in advancing the science and treatment of disease, especially in the case of novel pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2[2]. The goal of an autopsy is to discover the cause of death (COD) using a macro/microscopic investigation. Traditionally, the intact organs are carefully removed, inspected, and weighed. Because lung weight is often affected by the cause of death and the last breath occurs very near if not at the moments of death, the evaluation of the lungs is one of the starting points of any COD investigation[3]. Method A comprehensive search was performed to systematically review all reported autopsy findings in COVID-19 patients in order to better understand the underlying disease mechanisms resulting in death. We then compared these findings with the results of a targeted literature review of hyaluronan in relationship to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Results In total, data from 181 autopsies were identified. From this group, 6 autopsies of COVID-19 patients were selected for a detailed review and statistical analysis. The average lung weight of those who were determined to have died as a result of SARS-CoV-2 was 2196g-approximately 2.5x normal lung weight. Hyaline membranes were consistently identified on histologic sections. A review of the literature reveals that hyaluronan has been associated with the pathophysiology of ARDS since 1967. However, its key role in driving the morbidity and mortality of the condition has heretofore not been fully recognized. Conclusions We propose that the induced hyaluronan storm syndrome or IHS, is the model that best addresses the heretofore perplexing respiratory failure that is the proximal cause of death in a minority, but ever rising number, of patients. In addition to treating and preventing IHS in currently infected individuals now; an aggressive research effort should be undertaken to discover why the majority of individuals who are exposed to the virus are either minimally or asymptomatic, while a minority of high-risk individuals rapidly progress to respiratory failure and death. Keywords Systematic review; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Hyaline Membrane; Hyaluronan; Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome; ARDS; Autopsy; IHS; Induced Hyaluronan Storm Syndrome; COD; Cause of Death


title: Binding Ability Prediction between Spike Protein and Human ACE2 Reveals the Adaptive Strategy of SARS-CoV-2 in Humans

text: SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a novel coronavirus causing an outbreak of COVID-19 globally in the past six months. A relatively higher divergence on the spike protein of SASR-CoV-2 enables it to transmit across species efficiently. We particularly believe that the adaptive mutations of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of spike protein in SARS-CoV-2 might be essential to its high transmissibility among humans. Thus here we collected 2,142 high-quality genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from 160 regions in over 50 countries and reconstructed their phylogeny, and also analyzed the interaction between the polymorphisms of spike protein and human ACE2 (hACE2). Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus in other hosts show SARS-CoV-2 is highly possible originated from Bat-CoV (RaTG13) found in horseshoe bat and a recombination event may occur on the spike protein of Pangolin-CoV to imbue it the ability to infect humans. Moreover, compared to the S gene of SARS-CoV-2, it is more conserved in the direct-binding sites of RBD and we noticed that spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 may under a consensus evolution to adapt to human hosts better. 3,860 amino acid mutations in spike protein RBD (T333-C525) of SARS-CoV-2 were simulated and their stability and affinity binding to hACE2 (S19-D615) were calculated. Our analysis indicates SARS-CoV-2 could infect humans from different populations with no preference, and a higher divergence in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 at the early stage of this pandemic may be a good indicator that could show the pathway of SARS-CoV-2 transmitting from the natural reservoir to human beings.


title: The ABO blood group locus and a chromosome 3 gene cluster associate with SARS-CoV-2 respiratory failure in an Italian-Spanish genome-wide association analysis

text: Background. Respiratory failure is a key feature of severe Covid-19 and a critical driver of mortality, but for reasons poorly defined affects less than 10% of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Methods. We included 1,980 patients with Covid-19 respiratory failure at seven centers in the Italian and Spanish epicenters of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe (Milan, Monza, Madrid, San Sebastian and Barcelona) for a genome-wide association analysis. After quality control and exclusion of population outliers, 835 patients and 1,255 population-derived controls from Italy, and 775 patients and 950 controls from Spain were included in the final analysis. In total we analyzed 8,582,968 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and conducted a meta-analysis of both case-control panels. Results. We detected cross-replicating associations with rs11385942 at chromosome 3p21.31 and rs657152 at 9q34, which were genome-wide significant (P<5x10-8) in the meta-analysis of both study panels, odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48 to 2.11; P=1.14x10-10 and OR 1.32 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.47; P=4.95x10-8), respectively. Among six genes at 3p21.31, SLC6A20 encodes a known interaction partner with angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The association signal at 9q34 was located at the ABO blood group locus and a blood-group-specific analysis showed higher risk for A-positive individuals (OR=1.45, 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.75, P=1.48x10-4) and a protective effect for blood group O (OR=0.65, 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.79, P=1.06x10-5). Conclusions. We herein report the first robust genetic susceptibility loci for the development of respiratory failure in Covid-19. Identified variants may help guide targeted exploration of severe Covid-19 pathophysiology.


title: A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public

text: The number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries (as of March 2020) including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is around 1.5 to 4. The basic reproductive number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproductive number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproductive number between 1.5 to 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected or resilient against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. Our simple model does not consider all factors involved in COVID-19 transmission in a community, but the insights from our model results remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease. All in all, the take-home message is that everyone in the community, whether a frontliner or not, should be protected or should implement preventive measures to avoid being infected.


docid: qtrquuvv

title: Open-source analytics tools for studying the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak

text: To provide convenient access to epidemiological data on the coronavirus outbreak, we developed an R package, nCov2019 (https://github.com/GuangchuangYu/nCov2019). Besides detailed real-time statistics, it offers access to three data sources with detailed daily statistics from December 1, 2019, for 43 countries and more than 500 Chinese cities. We also developed a web app (http://www.bcloud.org/e/) with interactive plots and simple time-series forecasts. These analytics tools could be useful in informing the public and studying how this and similar viruses spread in populous countries.


title: Exposure assessment for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via breathing, speaking, coughing and sneezing

text: Background Evidence for indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating. If SARS-CoV-2 also spreads via aerosols, this has implications for measures taken to limit transmission. Objectives The aim of this study is to assess exposure to airborne SARS-CoV-2 particles from breathing, speaking, coughing and sneezing in an indoor environment. Methods An exposure assessment model was developed to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 particles in aerosol droplets, expelled during breathing, speaking, coughing and sneezing by an infected person in an unventilated indoor environment, and subsequent inhalation by one or more persons. Scenarios encompass a range of virus concentrations, room sizes and exposure times. Results The calculated total volume of expelled aerosol droplets was highest for a sneeze, followed by a cough and speaking for 20 minutes, and lastly breathing for 20 minutes. A few to as much as tens of millions of virus particles were expelled. Exposure probability strongly depends on the viral concentration in mucus, as well as on the scenario. Exposure probabilities were generally below 1% at a virus concentration in mucus below 10^5 per mL for all scenarios, increasing steeply at different higher concentrations. According to nose / throat swab data collected from patients, 75%, 50% and 5% of infected individuals carry an estimated number of SARS-CoV-2 per mL mucus of at least 10^5, 10^6 and 10^8, respectively. Discussion Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 via aerosols generated during breathing, speaking, coughing and sneezing in an unventilated indoor environment is possible. This study forms a basis to estimate probabilities of exposure to SARS-Cov-2 by airborne transmission in indoor spaces. As long as it is uncertain what fraction of the airborne virus particles is infectious and as long as a dose response relation is lacking, it is recommended to be precautious.


title: Liver histopathology in COVID 19 infection is suggestive of vascular alteration

text: COVID-19 breakout in Italy has caused a huge number of severely ill patients with a serious increase in mortality. Although lungs seem to be the main target of the infection very few information are available about liver involvement in COVID-19 infection, that could possibly evocate a systemic disease targeting a lot of organs. Since now there are no reports of large series of histological evaluation of liver morphology in this setting. Knowledge of histological liver findings connected to clinical data is crucial in management of this disease. Post-mortem wedge liver biopsies from 48 patients died for COVID-19 infection were available from two main hospitals located in northern Italy, Lombardy; all sample were obtained during autopsies. No patient has a significant clinical complain of liver disease or signs of liver failure before and during hospitalization; for each of them laboratory data focused on liver were available. All liver samples showed minimal inflammation features; on the other side, many histological pictures compatible with vascular alterations were observed, characterized by portal vein braches number increase associated with lumen massive dilatation, partial or complete recent luminal thrombosis of portal and sinusoidal vessels, fibrosis of portal tract, focally severely enlarged and fibrotic. Our preliminary results concerning histological liver involvement in COVID-19 infection confirm the clinical impression that liver failure is not a main concern and this organ is not the target of significant inflammatory damage; histopatological findings are highly suggestive for marked alteration of intrahepatic blood vessel network secondary to systemic alterations induced by virus that could target, besides lung parenchyma, cardiovascular system, coagulation cascade or endothelial layer of blood vessels.


title: Global years of life lost to COVID-19

text: Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 42 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. As of June 13th 2020, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2 to 6 times the average seasonal influenza; over two thirds of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and one quarter from deaths below 55; and men have lost 47% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.


title: Knowledge, attitude, and preventive practices toward COVID-19 among Bangladeshi internet users

text: Introduction: The COVID-19 is currently the most horrible issue around the world as there is no proven vaccine or medicine for this rapidly spreading disease. The only way left to this situation is to slow down or eradicate the spreading by adopting preventing measures. Objective: The purpose of the study is to investigate the knowledge, attitude, and preventive practices toward COVID-19 among Bangladeshi internet users. Material and Methods: A total of 441 respondents voluntarily participated in a web-based cross-sectional survey. A structured questionnaire was created using Google Forms and the link was shared through authors’ networks. Collected information was analyzed using univariate, bivariate, and multivariate techniques. Results: Respondent of age 30 and above are more optimistic (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] =1.96, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.13 to 3.41; P=0.016) compared to respondent of age 18-29. For 1 unit change in the knowledge score the likelihood of staying home and wearing mask increases by 1.73 (95% CI, 1.43 to 2.09; P<0.01) and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.25 to 1.77; P<0.01) times respectively. From the linear regression analysis, we see that urban residence type (vs. rural, β=0.274; P=0.024) are significantly associated with higher knowledge scores. Additionally, a significant positive correlation exists between the COVID-19 knowledge score and the preventive practice score (r=0.291, P <0.01). Conclusion: Although knowledge and preventive practices among Bangladeshi internet users are encouraging, this study suggests updated knowledge be provided by healthcare authorities to enhance appropriate preventive practices throughout the COVID-19 outbreak.


title: Treatment Response to Hydroxychloroquine and Antibiotics for mild to moderate COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study from South Korea

text: Objectives: To assess the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine on mild-moderate COVID-19 patients in South Korea. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of the 358 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) patients was conducted. 226 patients met inclusion criteria for analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) and Cox regression method were utilized to control and adjust for confounding factors. Mild to moderate COVID-19 patients were managed with hydroxychloroquine (HQ) plus antibiotics (n = 31) or conservative treatment (n = 195). Results: Kaplan-Meier curves drawn using propensity score-matched data revealed no differences between the length of time to viral clearance and duration of hospital stay between the two treatment arms (p=0.18, p=0.088). Multivariable Cox regression analysis similarly showed that time to viral clearance(Hazard ratio (HR) 0.97, [95%-confidence interval (CI): 0.57-1.67]) and symptom duration(HR 1.05, [95%-CI: 0.62-1.78]) were not different between groups. No severe adverse event or death was observed in either group. Conclusions: HQ with antibiotics was not associated with better clinical outcomes in terms of time to viral clearance, length of hospital stay, and duration of symptoms compared to conservative treatment alone. Large prospective randomized trials are necessary for definitive conclusions.


title: Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in a COVID-19 recovered patient cohort and their implications

text: Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus threatens global public health. Currently, neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) versus this virus are expected to correlate with recovery and protection of this disease. However, the characteristics of these antibodies have not been well studied in association with the clinical manifestations in patients. Methods Plasma collected from 175 COVID-19 recovered patients with mild symptoms were screened using a safe and sensitive pseudotyped-lentiviral-vector-based neutralization assay. Spike-binding antibody in plasma were determined by ELISA using RBD, S1, and S2 proteins of SARS-CoV-2. The levels and the time course of SARS-CoV-2-specific NAbs and the spike-binding antibodies were monitored at the same time. Findings SARS-CoV-2 NAbs were unable to cross-reactive with SARS-CoV virus. SARS-CoV-2-specific NAbs were detected in patients from day 10-15 after the onset of the disease and remained thereafter. The titers of NAb among these patients correlated with the spike-binding antibodies targeting S1, RBD, and S2 regions. The titers of NAbs were variable in different patients. Elderly and middle-age patients had significantly higher plasma NAb titers (P<0.0001) and spike-binding antibodies (P=0.0003) than young patients. Notably, among these patients, there were ten patients whose NAb titers were under the detectable level of our assay (ID50: < 40); while in contrast, two patients, showed very high titers of NAb, with ID50 :15989 and 21567 respectively. The NAb titers were positive correlated with plasma CRP levels but negative correlated with the lymphocyte counts of patients at the time of admission, indicating an association between humoral response and cellular immune response. Interpretation The variations of SARS-CoV-2 specific NAbs in recovered COVID-19 patients may raise the concern about the role of NAbs on disease progression. The correlation of NAb titers with age, lymphocyte counts, and blood CRP levels suggested that the interplay between virus and host immune response in coronavirus infections should be further explored for the development of effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus. Furthermore, titration of NAb is helpful prior to the use of convalescent plasma for prevention or treatment. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences


title: Lockdown measures in response to COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid study of nine countries

text: Lockdown measures have been introduced worldwide to contain the transmission of COVID-19. This paper defines the term lockdown and describes the design, timing and implementation of lockdown in nine countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It also discusses the manner in which lockdown is enforced, the need to mitigate the harms of lockdown, and the association between lockdown and the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. While there are some commonalities in the implementation of lockdown, a more notable finding is the variation in the design, timing and implementation of lockdown measures across the nine countries. We found that the number of reported cases is heavily dependent on the number of tests done, and that testing rates ranged from 9 to 21,261 per million population. The reported number of COVID-19 deaths per million population also varies, but is generally low when compared to countries in Europe and North America. While lockdown measures may have helped inhibit some community transmission, the pattern and nature of the epidemic remains unclear. Of concern are signs of lockdown harming health by affecting the functioning of the health system and causing social and economic harms. This paper highlights the need for inter-sectoral and trans-disciplinary research capable of providing a rigorous and holistic assessment of the harms and benefits of lockdown.


title: Rapid and cost-effective development of stable clones for the production of anti-Ebola monoclonal antibodies in HEK293T cells

text: The Ebola virus (EBOV) disease has caused serious and recurrent epidemics in recent years, resulting in a fatality rate of nearly 50%. The most effective experimental therapy against the EBOV is the use of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). In this work, we describe the development of HEK293T cells engineered for the transient and stable expression of mAb13C6, a neutralizing anti-EBOV monoclonal antibody. We transfected the HEK293T cells with a tricistronic vector to produce the heavy and the light chain of the antibody 13C6 and intracellular Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) using Lipofectamine 3000. We then selected the transfected cells using puromycin pressure, dilution cloning, and cloning disks. This integrated strategy generated mAb-producing cells in 7 days with a transient expression of ∼1 mg/L. Stable pools were produced after 4 weeks, with expression levels of ∼0.8 mg/L. Stable clones with expression levels of ∼1.8 mg/L were obtained within 10 weeks. The produced antibodies exhibited the expected functionality; they recognized the GP glycoprotein of the Ebola virus in both ELISA assays and cell binding experiments using HEK293T cells engineered to express the EBOV GP at their membrane surface. By the combined use of GFP and the set of selection techniques here described, we drastically reduced the time from transfection to stable clone generation without resorting to costly equipment. In outbreaks or emergencies, this platform can significantly shorten the development of new biopharmaceuticals and vaccines.


docid: kxsfyjdg

title: Inequalities in COVID19 mortality related to ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation

text: Background: Initial reports suggest that ethnic minorities may be experiencing more severe clinical outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) infections. We therefore assessed the association between ethnic composition, income deprivation and COVID19 mortality rates in England. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional ecological analysis across upper tier local authorities in England. We assessed the association between the proportion of the population from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds, income deprivation and COVID19 mortality rates using negative binomial regression models, whilst adjusting for population density, proportion of the population aged 50-79 and 80+ years, and the duration of the epidemic in each area. Findings: Local authorities with a greater proportion of residents from ethnic minority backgrounds had statistically significantly higher COVID19 mortality rates, as did local authorities with a greater proportion of residents experiencing deprivation relating to low income. After adjusting for income deprivation and other covariates, each percentage point increase in the proportion of the population from BAME backgrounds was associated with a 1% increase in the COVID19 mortality rate [IRR=1.01, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.02]. Each percentage point increase in the proportion of the population experiencing income deprivation was associated with a 2% increase in the COVID19 mortality rate [IRR=1.02, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.04]. Interpretation: This study provides evidence that both income deprivation and ethnicity are associated with greater COVID19 mortality. To reduce these inequalities governments need to target effective control measures at these disadvantaged communities, ensuring investment of resources reflects their greater need and vulnerability to the pandemic. Funding: National Institute of Health Research; Medical Research Council


title: A descriptive study of the impact of diseases control and prevention on the epidemics dynamics and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Shanghai, lessons learned for metropolis epidemics prevention

text: Objective: To describe and evaluate the impact of diseases control and prevention on epidemics dynamics and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Shanghai. Design: A retrospective descriptive study Setting: China Participants: Epidemiology information was collected from publicly accessible database. 265 patients admitted to Shanghai Public Health Center with confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled for clinical features analysis. Main outcome measure: Prevention and control measures taken by Shanghai government, epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiology data were collected. Weibull distribution, Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, t test or Mann-Whitney U test were used in statistical analysis. Results: COVID-19 transmission rate within Shanghai had reduced over 99% than previous speculated, and the exponential growth has been stopped so far. Epidemic was characterized by the first stage mainly composed of imported cases and the second stage where >50% of cases were local. The incubation period was 6.4 (95% CI 5.3 to 7.6) days and the mean onset-admission interval was 5.5 days (95% CI, 5.1 to 5.9). Median time for COVID-19 progressed to severe diseases were 8.5 days (IQR: 4.8-11.0 days). By February 11th, proportion of patients being mild, moderate, severe and critically ill were 1.9%(5/265), 89.8%(238/265), 3.8%(10/265), 4.5%(12/265), respectively; 47 people in our cohort were discharged, and 1 patient died. Conclusion: Strict controlling of the transmission rate at the early stage of an epidemic in metropolis can quickly prohibit the spread of the diseases. Controlling local clusters is the key to prevent outbreaks from imported cases. Most COVID-19 severe cases progressed within 14 days of disease onset. Multiple systemic laboratory abnormalities had been observed before significant respiratory dysfunction. Keyword: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, epidemics dynamics, diseases control, clinical features


docid: mkqxfogd

title: Has the Indian lockdown averted deaths?

text: Within the context of SEIR models, we consider a lockdown that is both imposed and lifted at an early stage of an epidemic. We show that, in these models, although such a lockdown may delay deaths, it eventually does not avert a significant number of fatalities. Therefore, in these models, the efficacy of a lockdown cannot be gauged by simply comparing figures for the deaths at the end of the lockdown with the projected figure for deaths by the same date without the lockdown. We provide a simple but robust heuristic argument to explain why this conclusion should generalize to more elaborate compartmental models. We qualitatively discuss some important effects of a lockdown, which go beyond the scope of simple models, but could cause it to increase or decrease an epidemic's final toll. Given the significance of these effects in India, and the limitations of currently available data, we conclude that simple epidemiological models cannot be used to reliably quantify the impact of the Indian lockdown on fatalities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Adding Structure to Statistics: A Study on COVID-19 Dynamics in India

text: This study pertains to COVID-19 in India, and begins by uncovering the statistical relationship between three time series- number of cases, number of deaths, and number of tests each day, using structural vector autoregression. Further, impulse responses of the before-mentioned series are studied. Effect of temperature and humidity on number of cases is analysed using the fixed effects model on city-level panel data. The next model utilises exponential smoothing for forecasting and conjecture for identifying peak specific to this data is presented. Lastly, multiple iterations of compartmental modelling, possible scenarios, and effect of underlying assumptions is analysed. The models are used to forecast number of cases (regression for short term and epidemiological for long term). In the end, policy implications of different modelling exercises and ways to check the implication for policy planning are discussed. Keywords: Time series forecasting, COVID-19, India, Regression Model, Holt Exponential Smoothing, Compartmental Model (SEIR)


title: Pulmonary alveolar regrowth in an adult COVID-19 patient

text: We detected active alveolar regrowth in the lung of a 58-year-old COVID-19 patient who underwent lung transplantation due to severe lung hemorrhage. Specifically, immunohistological and scanning electronic microscopy analyses revealed that alveolar type II epithelial cells (AT2 cells) accumulate in response to viral pneumonia and that these AT2 cells actively proliferate and differentiate into squamous AT1-like alveolar epithelial cells. Thus, our work establishes that alveolar regrowth does occur in post-COVID-19 injury adult human lungs.


title: Structure of anxiety associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the Russian-speaking sample: results from on-line survey

text: The COVID-19 pandemic imposed not only serious threats to the physical health of the population, but also provoked a wide range of psychological problems. Objective: to identify the most vulnerable populations during the epidemic period (including among individuals with affective disorders) who are most in need of psychological and / or psychiatric help. Material and methods: on-line survey of 1957 Russian-speaking respondents over 18 years old from March 30 to April 5, 2020. The level of anxiety distress was verified with the psychological stress scale (PSM-25). Stigmatization of individuals experiencing respiratory symptoms was assessed with modified devaluation / discrimination questionnaire (PDD; Cronbach's = 0.707). Results: 99.8% of respondents had variable concerns associated with COVID-19. Their mean scores of psychological stress were increased to moderate levels (104.9 {+/-} 34.4 points), and the stigmatization scores exceeded the value of the whole sample median (19.5 {+/-} 3.4; Me = 19). 35% of respondents had concerns about COVID-19 associated with anxiety distress (Cohen's d = 0.16-0.39). These were "risk of isolation" and "possible lack of medication for daily use". The most prone to concerns were respondents' groups with affective disorders; young people ([≤]20 years old), unemployed, single, those without higher education and women. Conclusions: large sub-cohorts of the Russian-speaking sample need correction of anxiety distress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The implementation of such measures should be targeted and oriented in terms of coverage and content to identified vulnerable social groups.


docid: aihrzxur

title: Optimally Pooled Viral Testing

text: It has long been known that pooling samples may be used to minimize the total number of tests required in order to identify each infected individual in a population. Pooling is most advantageous in populations with low infection probability, but remains better than non-pooled testing up to an infection probability of 30%. The present predictions imply that optimal pooling may be used to extremely efficiently test populations with infection percentages down to 0.1%, in which case a single round of optimal pooling with an average of as few as 6 tests may be sufficient to uniquely identify every infected individual in a population of 100 (and increases to 20 tests when at 1% infection). Additional testing efficiency may be realized by performing a second round of pooled testing, thus reducing the average number of tests required to test a population with 1% infection from 20 to 14 out of 100 (and from 6 to 4 with 0.1% infections). These best case predictions, obtained assuming perfect test accuracy and specificity, provide a quantitative measure of the optimal pool size and expected testing efficiency gains in populations with infection probabilities ranging from 0.1% to 30%, and are supported by recent COVID-19 detection sensitivity and optimized pool size experiments.


title: Model Based Comparison of Covid-19 Cases in Two Counties in the Silicon Valley

text: A recently developed model to analyze Covid-19 case data has been applied to compare the Covid-19 cases and hospital bed usage in Santa Clara county and San Mateo county which are in the Silicon Valley region of California. The model gives prediction for number of cases and deaths and number of hospital beds six weeks in advance. The model is versatile and can be applied to other countries and regions as well. Key words: Coronavirus, Covid-19, SARS, model, analysis, data, hospital, ICU, infectious disease, California, Silicon Valley


Reinfection or relapse in sars-cov-2-infected patients; does it occur?


title: Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 in feces of pediatric patients during the convalescent phase

text: Background: Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a newly identified virus which mainly spreads from person-to-person. Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 has been constantly reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most published studies focus on adult populations, whereas data concerning pediatric patients is relatively scarce. Methods: From January 17, 2020 to March 6, 2020, three pediatric cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment data of these children were collected. Real-time fluorescence reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in throat swabs and fecal specimens. Results: All the three pediatric cases were household contacts of adults whose symptoms developed earlier. There has been no evidence showing the virus was transmitted from the children to others. Severity of disease of these children was mild to moderate and fever was the most consistent and predominant symptom at onset of illness (two cases had body temperature higher than 38.5 Celsius). All children showed increased lymphocytes (>4.4*109/L) with normal white blood cell counts on admission. One child had elevated serum levels of procalcitonin and C-reaction protein. Radiological changes were not typical for COVID-19. All children showed good response to supportive treatment. Clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory tract occurred within two weeks after abatement of fever, whereas persistent presence of viral RNA was found in stools of all children. One case had fecal SARS-CoV-2 turned negative 8 days after throat swabs showing negative, while that of another child lagged behind for 20 days. At the time of writing, one child still had positive results for RT-PCR analysis in stools after negative conversion of viral RNA in respiratory samples (over 19 days behind). Conclusions: Pediatric patients with COVID-19 are very different from adult patients in regards to epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics. Prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children indicates the potential for the virus to be transmitted through fecal excretion. Massive efforts should be made at all levels to prevent spreading of the infection among children after reopening of kindergartens and schools.