title: Clinical features and outcomes of 2019 novel coronavirus-infected patients with high plasma BNP levels

text: Aims To explore clinical features and outcome of 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)-infected patients with high BNP levels Methods and results Data were collected from patients medical records, and we defined high BNP according to the plasma BNP was above > 100 pg/mL. In total,34 patients with corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)were included in the analysis. Ten patients had high plasma BNP level. The median age for these patients was 60.5 years (interquartile range, 40-80y), and 6/10 (60%) were men. Underlying comorbidities in some patients were coronary heart disease (n=2, 20%) ;hypertesion(n=3;30%);, heart failure (n=1,10%)and diabetes (n=2, 20%). Six (60%) patients had a history of Wuhan exposure. The most common symptoms at illness onset in patients were fever (n=7, 70%), cough (n=3, 30%), headache or fatigue(n=4,40%);. These patients had higher aspartate aminotransferase(AST), troponin I, C reactive protein and lower hemoglobin, and platelet count,compared with patients with normal BNP, respectively. Compared with patients with normal BNP, patients with high BNP were more likely to develop severe pneumonia, and receive tracheal cannula, invasive mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and be admitted to the intensive care unit. One patient with high BNP died during the study.


title: Successful Conservative Management of Acute Appendicitis in a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Patient

text: Appendectomy is the gold standard of treatment for acute appendicitis; however, recent evidence suggests conservative management with intravenous antibiotics may provide similar outcomes and can be used as an alternative in selected patients. Performing appendectomy in acute appendicitis patients with 2019 novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is challenging, as it involves considerable operative risks for the patients and risks for health care professionals (HCPs) exposed to COVID-19. Medical management eliminates the morbidity and mortality associated with surgery but involves significant risks of treatment failures that, in turn, may lead to perforation, peritonitis, and death. We are reporting a case of a middle-aged man with multiple co-morbidities, who was diagnosed with COVID-19 and acute appendicitis. Our patient received intravenous antibiotics for seven days with a significant improvement in symptoms. Our case report illustrates the implementation of successful conservative treatment for acute appendicitis in COVID-19 patients.


title: A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications

text: A mathematical model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pandemic The model possesses remarkable properties, such as as full integrability The comparison with the public data shows that exact solutions of the model (with the correctly specified parameters) lead to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France, and Poland Some generalizations of the model are suggested as well


title: Highs and lows

text: We must learn from ingenuity of space travel to solve problems close to home


title: Neutralizing Antibodies Responses to SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 Inpatients and Convalescent Patients

text: Background. COVID-19 is a pandemic with no specific antiviral treatments or vaccines. The urgent needs for exploring the neutralizing antibodies from patients with different clinical characteristics are emerging. Methods. A total of 117 blood samples were collected from 70 COVID-19 inpatients and convalescent patients. The presence of neutralizing antibody was determined with a modified cytopathogenic assay based on live SARS-CoV-2. The dynamics of neutralizing antibody levels at different with different clinical characteristics were analyzed. Results. The seropositivity rate reached up to 100.0% within 20 days since onset, and remained 100.0% till day 41-53. The total GMT was 1:163.7 (95% CI, 128.5 to 208.6), and the antibody level was highest during day 31-40 since onset, and then decreased slightly. Individual differences in changes of antibody levels were observed among 8 representative convalescent patients. In multivariate GEE analysis, patients at age of 31-60 and 61-84 had a higher antibody level than those at age of 16-30 (β=1.0518, P=0.0152; β=1.3718, P=0.0020). Patients with a worse clinical classification had a higher antibody titer (β=0.4639, P=0.0227). Conclusions. The neutralizing antibodies were detected even at the early stage of disease, and a significant response showed in convalescent patients. Moreover, changes on antibody levels ware individual specific.


title: PREEXISTING COMORBIDITIES PREDICTING SEVERE COVID-19 IN OLDER ADULTS IN THE UK BIOBANK COMMUNITY COHORT

text: Background: Older COVID-19 hospitalized patients frequently have hypertension, diabetes or coronary heart disease (CHD), but whether these are more common than in the population is unclear. During the initial epidemic in England, virus testing for older adults was restricted to symptomatic hospitalized patients. We aimed to estimate associations between pre-existing diagnoses and COVID-19 status, in a large community cohort. Methods: UK Biobank (England) participants assessed 2006 to 2010, followed in hospital discharge records to 2017. Demographic and pre-existing common diagnoses association tested with COVID-19 status (16th March to 14th April 2020) in logistic models, adjusted for demographics, study site and other diagnoses. Results: There were 274,356 participants aged 65+, including 448 (0.16%) hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Common co-morbidities in patients were hypertension (58.5%), coronary heart disease (CHD, 21.1%), history of fall or fragility fractures (30.6%), and type 2 diabetes (19.6%). However, in adjusted models, COVID-19 patients were more likely than other participants to have pre-existing dementia (OR=3.07 95% CI 1.71 to 5.50), COPD (OR= 1.82 CI 1.33 to 2.49), depression (OR=1.81 CI 1.36 to 2.40), type 2 diabetes (OR=1.70 CI 1.30 to 2.21), chronic kidney disease and atrial fibrillation. Hypertension was modestly associated (OR=1.29 CI 1.04 to 1.59), but CHD (OR=0.92 CI 0.71 to 1.20) prevalence was similar in COVID-19 patients and other participants. Conclusion: Specific co-morbidities are disproportionally common in older adults who develop severe COVID-19. Tailored interventions may be needed, as these results do not support simple age-based targeting to prevent severe COVID-19 infection.


title: Conserved Genomic Terminals of SARS-CoV-2 as Co-evolving Functional Elements and Potential Therapeutic Targets

text: To identify features in the genome of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic that may contribute to its viral replication, host pathogenicity, and vulnerabilities, we investigated how and to what extent the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence differs from other well-characterized human and animal coronavirus genomes. Our analyses suggest the presence of unique sequence signatures in the 3’-untranslated region (UTR) of betacoronavirus lineage B, which phylogenetically encompasses SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, as well as multiple groups of bat and animal coronaviruses. In addition, we identified genome-wide patterns of variation across different SARS-CoV-2 strains that likely reflect the effects of selection. Finally, we provide evidence for a possible host microRNA-mediated interaction between the 3’-UTR and human microRNA hsa-miR-1307-3p based on predicted, yet extensive, complementary base-pairings and similar interactions involving the Influenza A H1N1 virus. This interaction also suggests a possible survival mechanism, whereby a mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 3’-UTR leads to a weakened host immune response. The potential roles of host microRNAs in SARS-CoV-2 replication and infection, and the exploitation of conserved features in the 3’-UTR as therapeutic targets warrant further investigation.


title: Psychological distress among healthcare professionals involved in the COVID-19 emergency: Vulnerability and resilience factors

text: The aim of this paper is to outline some considerations about the psychological distress in healthcare professional during the Covid-19 pandemic. We summarize available literature both on ‘protective’ and ‘predisposing’ factors potentially involved in the occurrence of psychological distress, including PTSD, in frontline healthcare operators. Valid social support, self-efficacy, internal locus of control (LOC) and sense of coherence (SOC) have been considered as resilience factors, in previous studies. Likewise, several observations pointed on the relevance of individual and environmental vulnerabilities. No real evidence is available about strategies to face the emotional burden for healthcare operators due to present COVID-19 scenario. However, we strongly believe that the containment of isolation anxiety with an appropriate emotional support should be the first instrument to minimise the psychological effect of pandemic on the more exposed healthcare professionals.


title: Heat inactivation of serum interferes with the immunoanalysis of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2

text: The detection of serum antibodies to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is emerging as a new tool for the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis. Since many coronaviruses are sensitive to heat, heating inactivation of samples at 56 ℃ prior to testing is considered a possible method to reduce the risk of transmission, but the effect of heating on the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is still unclear. By comparing the levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies before and after heat inactivation of serum at 56 ℃ for 30 minutes using a quantitative fluorescence immunochromatographic assay, we shown that heat inactivation significantly interferes with the levels of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The IgM levels of all the 34 serum samples (100%) from COVID-19 patients decreased by an average level of 53.56%. The IgG levels were decreased in 22 of 34 samples (64.71%) by an average level of 49.54%. Similar changes can also be observed in the non-COVID-19 diseases group (n=9). Of note, 44.12% of the detected IgM levels were dropped below the cut-off value after heating, suggesting heat inactivation can lead to false-negative results of these samples. Our results indicate that heat inactivation of serum at 56 ℃ for 30 minutes interferes with the immunoanalysis of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Heat inactivation prior to immunoanalysis is not recommended and the possibility of false-negative results should be considered if the sample was pre-inactivated by heating.


title: The novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 and pregnancy: Literature review

text: Having emerged in China, the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly worldwide. Pregnant women are patients who have risk factors for severe/complicated acute respiratory viral infections and influenza; however, there have been presently only few works that highlight the specific features of the course of COVID-19, a disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, in pregnant women and newborns. The aim of the review was to search for and analyze publications considering the characteristics of the course of COVID-19 in pregnant women and newborns. Pregnancy and childbirth do not seem to aggravate the course of COVID-19; on the contrary, the latter can deteriorate the course of pregnancy: it can cause respiratory distress syndrome and lead to premature birth and miscarriage. There is no current evidence for mother-to-fetus placental transmission of COVID-19 and mother-to-baby transmission during breastfeeding. A large number of interim guidelines for the management of pregnant women with COVID-19 have been published.


title: Quarantined at home now, U.S. scientist describes his visit to China’s hot zone

text: On 13 February, Clifford Lane went to a Washington, D C –area airport to catch a flight to Japan, where he would help launch a study of an experimental drug, remdesivir, against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Lane is a deputy director at the U S National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a right-hand man to Anthony Fauci, head of NIAID and the top research scientist in the country advising the White House on the outbreak of the virus As Lane waited to board his plane, he was told that his final destination had changed “I get an email, ‘You need to go to China ’ It’s like, are you kidding?” Lane had been selected as one of two U S scientists to join a World Health Organization team of 13 international researchers who would tour five different cities with 12 Chinese colleagues to get a firsthand look at the coronavirus epidemic there The joint mission, which ran from 16–23 February led to a report that offered more details about the clinical course of COVID-19 and the epidemiology in China than had appeared anywhere before


title: Extracorporeal Cytokine Hemadsorption in Severe COVID-19 Respiratory Failure

text: Despite the extracorporeal cytokine hemadsorption device CytoSorb was granted FDA emergency approval for critically ill COVID19 patients, to our knowledge no published studies are currently available to support its use. This manuscript reports the experience of the use of CytoSorb during COVID19 pandemic in Bergamo, Italy. In our pilot study, eleven COVID19 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation for a rapidly progressive ARDS were treated with 24 to 48 hours of extracorporeal cytokine hemadsorption. Respiratory and laboratory parameters, including a full set of inflammatory cytokines, were evaluated at different time points. A significant but transient reduction of the hyperinflammatory status was observed, along with the amelioration of the clinical and respiratory parameters.


title: Insurgence and worldwide diffusion of genomic variants in SARS-CoV-2 genomes

text: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic that we are currently experiencing is exerting a massive toll both in human lives and economic impact. One of the challenges we must face is to try to understand if and how different variants of the virus emerge and change their frequency in time. Such information can be extremely valuable as it may indicate shifts in aggressiveness, and it could provide useful information to trace the spread of the virus in the population. In this work we identified and traced over time 7 amino acid variants that are present with high frequency in Italy and Europe, but that were absent or present at very low frequencies during the first stages of the epidemic in China and the initial reports in Europe. The analysis of these variants helps defining 6 phylogenetic clades that are currently spreading throughout the world with changes in frequency that are sometimes very fast and dramatic. In the absence of conclusive data at the time of writing, we discuss whether the spread of the variants may be due to a prominent founder effect or if it indicates an adaptive advantage.


title: A model to predict COVID-19 epidemics with applications to South Korea, Italy, and Spain

text: In this work, our team develops a differential equations model of COVID-19 epidemics. Our goal is to predict forward in time the future number of cases from early reported case data in regions throughout the world. Our model incorporates the following important elements of COVID-19 epidemics: (1) the number of asymptomatic infectious individuals (with very mild or no symptoms), (2) the number of symptomatic reported infectious individuals (with severe symptoms) and (3) the number of symptomatic unreported infectious individuals (with less severe symptoms). We apply our model to COVID-!9 epidemics in South Korea, Italy and Spain.


title: Multi-omics study revealing tissue-dependent putative mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 drug targets on viral infections and complex diseases

text: Drug target prioritisation for new targets and drug repurposing of existing drugs for COVID-19 treatment are urgently needed for the current pandemic. Here we pooled 353 candidate drug targets of COVID-19 from clinical trial registries and the literature and estimated their putative causal effects in 11 SARS-CoV-2 related tissues on 622 complex human diseases. By constructing a disease atlas of drug targets for COVID-19, we prioritise 726 target-disease associations as evidence of causality using robust Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization evidence (http://epigraphdb.org/covid-19/ctda/). Triangulating these MR findings with historic drug trial information and the druggable genome, we ranked and prioritised three genes DHODH, ITGB5 and JAK2 targeted by three marketed drugs (Leflunomide, Cilengitide and Baricitinib) which may have repurposing potential with careful risk assessment. This study evidences the value of our integrative approach in prioritising and repurposing drug targets, which will be particularly applicable when genetic association studies of COVID-19 are available in the near future.


title: State-of-the-art tools unveil potent drug targets amongst clinically approved drugs to inhibit helicase in SARS-CoV-2

text: INTRODUCTION: The extreme health and economic problems in the world due to the SARS-CoV-2 infection have led to an urgent need to identify potential drug targets for treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present state-of-the-art tool-based screening was targeted to identify drug targets among clinically approved drugs by uncovering SARS-CoV-2 helicase inhibitors through molecular docking analysis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Helicase is a vital viral replication enzyme, which unwinds nucleic acids and separates the double-stranded nucleic acids into single-stranded nucleic acids. Hence, the SARS-CoV-2 helicase protein 3D structure was predicted, validated, and used to screen the druggable targets among clinically approved drugs such as protease inhibitor, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, used to treat HIV infection using molecular docking analysis. RESULTS: Interaction with SARS-CoV-2 helicase, approved drugs, vapreotide (affinity: –12.88; S score: –9.84 kcal/mol), and atazanavir (affinity: –11.28; S score: –9.32 kcal/mol), approved drugs for treating AIDS-related diarrhoea and HIV infection, respectively, are observed with significantly low binding affinity and MOE score or binding free energy. The functional binding pockets of the clinically approved drugs on SARS-CoV-2 helicase protein molecule suggest that vapreotide and atazanavir may interrupt the activities of the SARS-CoV-2 helicase. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that vapreotide may be a choice of drug for wet lab studies to inhibit the infection of SARS-CoV-2.


title: Quantification of Intra-Host Genomic Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 Allows a High-Resolution Characterization of Viral Evolution and Reveals Functionally Convergent Variants

text: A global cross-discipline effort is ongoing to characterize the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus and generate reliable epidemiological models of its diffusion. To this end, phylogenomic approaches leverage accumulating genomic mutations as barcodes to track the evolutionary history of the virus and can benefit from the surge of sequences deposited in public databases. Yet, such methods typically rely on consensus sequences representing the dominant virus lineage, whereas a complex sublineage architecture is often observed within single hosts. Furthermore, most approaches do not account for variants accumulation processes and might produce inaccurate results in condition of limited sampling, as witnessed in most countries affected by the epidemics. We introduce VERSO (Viral Evolution ReconStructiOn), a new comprehensive framework for the characterization of viral evolution and transmission from sequencing data of viral genomes. our approach accounts for accumulation of clonal mutations and uncertainty in the data, by taking advantage of the achievements of research in cancer evolution, to deliver robust phylogenomic lineage models, and exploits intra-host variant frequency profiles to characterize the sublineage similarity among samples, which may derive from uncovered infection events. The application of our approach to RNA-sequencing data of 162 SARS-CoV-2 samples generates a high-resolution model of evolution and spread, which improves recent findings on viral types and highlights the existence of patterns of co-occurrence of minor variants, revealing likely infection paths among hosts harboring the same viral lineage. The in-depth analysis of the mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 confirms a statistically significant increase of genomic diversity in time and identifies a number of variants that are transiting from minor to clonal state in the population. We also show that standard phylogenetic methods can produce unreliable results when handling datasets with noise and sampling limitations, as proven by the further application of VERSO to 12419 consensus sequences included in GISAID database. Notably, VERSO allows to pinpoint minor variants that might be positively or negatively selected across distinct lineages, thus driving the design of treatments and vaccines. In particular, minor variant g.29039A>U, detected in multiple viral lineages and validated on independent samples, shows that SARS-CoV-2 can lose its main Nucleocapsid immunogenic epitopes, raising concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines targeting the C-terminus of this protein. Finally, we here release the likely SARS-CoV-2 ancestral genome, obtained by resolving ambiguous SNPs that distinguish two widely-used reference genomes from human samples, by employing the Pangolin-CoV and the Bat-CoV-RaTG13 genomes. Our results show that the joint application of our framework and data-driven epidemiological models might allow to deliver a high-resolution platform for pathogen surveillance and analysis.


title: Identification of potential vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2, A step forward to fight novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: A Reverse Vaccinology Approach

text: The recent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense health crisis to global public health. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 as a pandemic. The COVID-19 is the etiologic agent of a recently arose disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Presently, there is no vaccine available against this emerged viral disease. Therefore, it is indeed a need of the hour to develop an effectual and safe vaccine against this decidedly pandemic disease. In the current study, we collected SARS-CoV-2 genome from Indian geographical origin against human host, further more using reverse vaccinology and immunoinformatics tools here we claim effective vaccine candidates that can be mile stone in battle against COVID19. This novel study divulged two promising antigenic peptide GVYFASTEK and NFRVQPTESIV from surface glycoproteins (protein accession no. – QIA98583.1 and QHS34546.1) of SARS-CoV-2, which were predicated to be interacted with class I and class II MHC alleles and showed up to 90% conservancy and high value of antigenicity. Subsequently, the molecular docking studies were verified molecular interaction of these prime antigenic peptides with the residues of HLA-A*11-01 allele for MHC Class I and HLA DRB1*04-01 allele for MHC class II. After vigorous analysis, these peptides were predicted to be suitable epitopes which are capable to elicit the strong cell-mediated immune response against the SARS-CoV-2. Consequences from the present study could facilitate selecting SARS-CoV-2 epitopes for vaccine production pipelines in the immediate future. This novel research will certainly pave the way for a fast, reliable and virtuous platform to provide timely countermeasure of this dangerous pandemic disease, COVID-19.


title: Comparison of Multimorbidity in COVID-19 infected and general population in Portugal

text: Understanding COVID-19 and its risk factors in the Portuguese population is critical to combat this condition. To study the impact of multimorbidity in the population with COVID-19 infection, we performed a descriptive analysis of a dataset extracted from all reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Portugal until April 28, 2020. We observed a prevalence of multimorbidity in 4.49% of the 19,598 infected patients. Patients showed an increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission and mortality with OR 2.70 (CI 95%: 2.52-2.88) for every additional morbidity. Further studies should confirm these findings and special attention should be made on data collection to ensure proper recording of patient comorbidities.


title: COVID-19, Grippewellen und ökonomische Aktivität — die Perspektive der Wirkungsanalyse

text: The German debate about the policy implications of the coronavirus becomes increasingly heated given different views on the mortality rate from SARS CoV-2, as well as the epidemiological and economic impact of lockdown measures imposed by the government. Impact analysis applying features of randomised control trials would provide clear evidence. However, this is currently unavailable due to a lack of an appropriate control group of countries without measures. Thus, polarisation is likely to rise if observed mortality rates remain low.


title: Carbon nanotubes reinforced alumina matrix nanocomposites for conductive ceramics by additive manufacturing

text: Abstract Alumina has been extensively used due to its high toughness and hardness, low bulk density, and thermal stability without interaction with the matrix at high temperature. However, the non-conductivity at room temperature narrows its broader applications. Carbon nanotube (CNT) is a suitable candidate to adjust the electrical property of alumina matrix composites due to its high electrical conductivity. By using material extrusion 3D printing (ME3DP), we fabricated 3D CNT/alumina green bodies using inks with controlled rheological properties for high printability. The printed green bodies with CNT loading from 3 wt% to 10 wt% were thermally treated to remove binders and sinter the 3D parts at temperatures from 900 to 1400 °C. The sintered samples showed a good dispersion of CNT in the alumina matrix and improved electrical conductivity. The electrical conductivity of the composites measured up to 10-1 S/m at 7 wt.% CNT loading, compared to the electrical conductivity of 10-13 S/m of pure alumina.


title: Globalized low-income countries may experience higher COVID-19 mortality rates

text: Understanding the factors underpinning COVID-19 infection and mortality rates is essential in order to implement actions that help mitigate the current pandemia. Here we evaluate how a suit of 15 climatic and socio-economic variables influence COVID-19 exponential growth-phase infection and mortality rates across 36 countries. We found that imports of goods and services, international tourism and the number of published scientific papers are good predictors of COVID-19 infection rates, indicating that more globalized countries may have experienced multiple and recurrent introductions of the virus. However, high-income countries showed lower mortality rates, suggesting that the consequences of the current pandemia will be worse for globalized low-income countries. International aid agencies could use this information to help mitigate the consequences of the current pandemia in the most vulnerable countries.


docid: fizrdjiy

title: On estimating the number of deaths related to Covid-19

text: In this paper, we discuss an explicit model function that can estimate the total number of deaths in the population, and particularly, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the United States due to the current Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results to two related existing models based on a new criteria and several existing criteria for model selection. The results show the proposed model fits significantly better than the other two related models based on the U.S. Covid-19 death data. We observe that the errors of the fitted data and the predicted data points on the total number of deaths in the U.S. on the last available data point and the next coming day are less than 0.5% and 2.0%, respectively. The results show very encouraging predictability for the model. The new model predicts that the maximum total number of deaths will be approximately 62,100 across the United States due to the Covid-19 virus, and with a 95% confidence that the expected total death toll will be between 60,951 and 63,249 deaths based on the data until 22 April, 2020. If there is a significant change in the coming days due to various testing strategies, social-distancing policies, the reopening of community strategies, or a stay-home policy, the predicted death tolls will definitely change. Future work can be explored further to apply the proposed model to global Covid-19 death data and to other applications, including human population mortality, the spread of disease, and different topics such as movie reviews in recommender systems.


Covid-19-Folgen


title: Detection of SARS-CoV-2 from raw patient samples by coupled high temperature reverse transcription and amplification

text: The SARS-CoV-2 beta coronavirus is spreading globally with unprecedented consequences for modern societies. The early detection of infected individuals is a pre-requisite for all strategies aiming to contain the virus. Currently, purification of RNA from patient samples followed by RT-PCR is the gold standard to assess the presence of this single-strand RNA virus. However, these procedures are time consuming, require continuous supply of specialized reagents, and are prohibitively expensive in resource-poor settings. Here, we report an improved nucleic-acid-based approach to detect SARS-CoV-2, which alleviates the need to purify RNA, reduces handling steps, minimizes costs, and allows evaluation by non-specialized equipment. The use of unprocessed swap samples and the ability to detect as little as three viral genome equivalents is enabled by employing a heat-stable RNA- and DNA-dependent DNA polymerase, which performs the double task of stringent reverse transcription of RNA at elevated temperatures as well as PCR amplification of a SARS-CoV-2 specific target gene. As results are obtained within 2 hours and can be read-out by a hand-held LED-screen, this novel protocol will be of particular importance for large-scale virus surveillance in economically constrained settings.


From Offline to Online: Challenges and Opportunities for Entrepreneurship Education Following the COVID-19 Pandemic


title: Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission

text: The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion, with the number of cases N reasonably well fit by N eαt, in many countries. We analyze the rate α in different countries, choosing as a starting point in each country the first day with 30 cases and fitting for the following 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth in a rather homogeneous way. We look for a link between the rate α and the average temperature T of each country, in the month of the epidemic growth. We analyze a {\it base} set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic at an earlier stage, an {\it intermediate} set of 88 countries and an {\it extended} set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Fitting with a linear behavior α(T), we find increasing evidence in the three datasets for a decreasing growth rate as a function of T, at $99.66\%$C.L., $99.86\%$C.L. and $99.99995 \%$ C.L. ($p$-value $5 \cdot 10^{-7}$, or 5$\sigma$ detection) in the {\it base}, {\it intermediate} and {\it extended} dataset, respectively. The doubling time is expected to increase by $40\%\sim 50\%$, going from $5^\circ$ C to $25^\circ$ C. In the {\it base} set, going beyond a linear model, a peak at about $(7.7\pm 3.6)^\circ C$ seems to be present in the data, but such evidence disappears for the larger datasets. Moreover we have analyzed the possible existence of a bias: poor countries, typically located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita from the dataset, we find that this affects our conclusions only slightly and only for the {\it extended} dataset. The significance always remains high, with a $p$-value of about $10^{-3}-10^{-4}$ or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general the propagation should be hopefully stopped by strong lockdown, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the next cold season.


title: Critical levels of mask efficiency and of mask adoption that theoretically extinguish respiratory virus epidemics

text: Using a respiratory virus epidemiological model we derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency (fraction blocked) and mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) that lower the effective reproduction number to unity. The model extends a basic epidemiological model and assumes that a specified fraction of a population dons masks at a given initial number of infections. The model includes a contribution from the ocular (nasolacrimal duct) route, and does not include contributions from contact (fomite) routes. The model accommodates dose-response (probability of infection) functions that are linear or non-linear. Our motivation to study near-population-wide mask wearing arises from the concept that, between two mask wearers, the concentration of particles at inhalation should be the square of the mask penetration fraction. This combination, or team, of masks can provide a strong dose-lowering squaring effect, which enables the use of lower-efficiency, lower-cost, lower pressure-drop (easier breathing) masks. For an epidemic with basic reproduction number R0=2.5 and with a linear dose-response, the critical mask efficiency is calculated to be 0.5 for a mask adoption level of 0.8 of the population. Importantly, this efficiency is well below that of a N95 mask, and well above that of some fabric masks. Numerical solutions of the model at near-critical levels of mask efficiency and mask adoption demonstrate avoidance of epidemics. To be conservative we use mask efficiencies measured with the most-penetrating viral-particle sizes. The critical mask adoption level for surgical masks with an efficiency of 0.58 is computed to be 0.73. With surgical masks (or equally efficient substitutes) and 80% and 90% adoption levels, respiratory epidemics with R0 of about 3 and 4, respectively, would be theoretically extinguished.


title: Non-Contact Respiratory Rate Estimation in Real-Time With Modified Joint Unscented Kalman Filter

text: It can be life-saving to monitor the respiratory rate (RR) even for healthy people in real-time It is reported that the infected people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), generally develop mild respiratory symptoms in the early stage It will be more important to continuously monitor the RR of people in nursing homes and houses with a non-contact method Conventional, contact-based, methods are not suitable for long-term health monitoring especially in-home care services The potentials of wireless radio signals for health care applications, such as fall detection, etc , are examined in literature In this paper, we focus on a device-free real-time RR monitoring system using wireless signals In our recent study, we proposed a non-contact RR monitoring system with a batch processing (delayed) estimation method In this paper, for real-time monitoring, we modify the standard joint unscented Kalman filter (JUKF) method for this new and time-critical problem Due to the nonlinear structure of the RR estimation problem with respect to the measurements, a novel modification is proposed to transform measurement errors into parameter errors by using the hyperbolic tangent function It is shown in the experiments conducted with the real measurements taken using healthy volunteers that the proposed modified joint unscented Kalman filter (ModJUKF) method achieves the highest accuracy according to the windowing-based methods in the time-varying RR scenario It is also shown that the ModJUKF not only reduces the computational complexity approximately 8 54 & x0025;but also improves the accuracy 36 7 & x0025;with respect to the standard JUKF method


title: Mismanagement of Covid-19: lessons learned from Italy

text: Maria Laura Ruiu is lecturer at Northumbria University (Newcastle upon Tyne). She has recently completed her second PhD in Social Sciences (Northumbria University). She also acted as post-doctoral researcher at the Desertification Research Centre (University of Sassari, Italy) investigating the adaptive capacity of some communities to climate change impact. This paper analyses the first phases of the Covid-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak management in Italy by exploring the combination of political, scientific, media and public responses. A lack of coordination between political and scientific levels, and between institutional claim-makers and the media, suggests a mismanagement of the crisis during the first phases of the outbreak. The outbreak management suffered from the five communication weaknesses identified by Reynolds, related to i) mixed messages from multiple messengers; ii) delay in releasing information; iii) paternalistic attitudes; iv) lack of immediate reaction to rumours; and v) political confusion. This supports that the communication of uncertainty around an unknown threat should be accompanied by both political and scientific cohesion. However, both political and scientific dysfunctions caused the failure of several government efforts to contain the outbreak. This paper contributes towards informing policymakers on some lessons learned from the management of the Covid-19 in one of the most affected countries in the world. The Italian case study offers the opportunity for other countries to improve the management of the outbreak by limiting the spread of both chaos and panic.


title: Psychological impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on Chinese people: Exposure, post-traumatic stress symptom, and emotion regulation

text: Objective: To examine the effects of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) exposure, expressive suppression/cognitive reappraisal, and demographic variables on post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTS) among Chinese Methods: Participants were recruited by social media through WeChat and 6 049 Chinese (aged from 17 to 63 years;median=24) from 31 provinces were included in the study PTS symptoms, expressive suppression, and cognitive reappraisal were assessed after the outbreak of COVID-19 A regression mixture analysis was conducted in Mplus 7 Results: A regression mixture model identified three latent classes that were primarily distinguished by differential effects of COVID- 19 exposures on PTS symptoms: (1) Class 1 (mildly PTS symptoms, 80 9%), (2) Class 2 (moderate PTS symptoms, 13 0%), and (3) Class 3 (high PTS symptoms, 6 1%) The results demonstrated that the young, women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others were more vulnerable to PTS symptoms;and they had more expression inhibition and less cognitive reappraisal in three latent classes Conclusions: The findings suggest that more attention needs to be paid to vulnerable groups such as the young, women and people with responsibilities and concerns for others Therapies to encourage emotional expression and increase cognitive reappraisal may also be helpful for trauma survivors


title: Metropolitan Wastewater Analysis for COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance

text: Background: The COVID-19 disease, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a rapidly emerging pandemic which has enforced extreme containment measures worldwide. In the absence of a vaccine or efficient treatment, cost-effective epidemiological surveillance strategies are urgently needed. Methods: Here, we have used RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection in a series of longitudinal metropolitan wastewaters samples collected during the earliest stages of the epidemic in the Region of Valencia, Spain. Results: We were able to consistently detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in samples taken when communicated cases in that region were only incipient. We also find that the wastewater viral RNA context increased rapidly and anticipated the subsequent ascent in the number of declared cases. Interpretation: Our results strongly suggest that the virus was undergoing community transmission earlier than previously believed, and show that wastewater analysis is a sensitive and cost-effective strategy for COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance. Routine implementation of this surveillance tool would significantly improve our preparedness against new or re-occurring viral outbreaks.


title: ACE2 variants underlie interindividual variability and susceptibility to COVID-19 in Italian population

text: In December 2019, an initial cluster of unexpected interstitial bilateral pneumonia emerged in Wuhan, Hubei province. A human-to-human transmission was immediately assumed and a previously unrecognized entity, termed coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) was suddenly described. The infection has rapidly spread out all over the world and Italy has been the first European Country experiencing the endemic wave with unexpected clinical severity in comparison with Asian countries. It has recently been shown that 2019-nCov utilizes host receptors namely angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as host receptor and host proteases for cell surface binding and internalization. Thus, a predisposing genetic background can give reason for interindividual disease susceptibility and/or severity. Taking advantage of the Network of Italian Genomes (NIG), here we mined around 7000 exomes from 5 different Centers looking for ACE2 variants. A number of variants with a potential impact on protein stability were identified. Among these, three missense changes, p.Asn720Asp, p.Lys26Arg, p.Gly211Arg (MAF 0.002 to 0.015), which have never been reported in the Eastern Asia population, were predicted to interfere with protein cleavage and stabilization. Rare truncating variants likely interfering with the internalization process and one missense variant, p.Trp69Cys, predicted to interfere with 2019-nCov spike protein binding were also observed. These findings suggest that a predisposing genetic background may contribute to the observed inter-individual clinical variability associated with COVID-19. They allow an evidence-based risk assessment opening up the way to personalized preventive measures and therapeutic options.


title: Early Diagnosis and Clinical Significance of Acute Cardiac Injury - Under the Iceberg: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 619 Non-critically Ill Hospitalized COVID-19 Pneumonia Patients

text: Rationale: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can cause a viral pneumonia together with other extrapulmonary complications. Acute cardiac related injury (ACRI) is common in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Objective: To explain the pathological mechanism of ACRI and improve the treatment strategy by retrospectively observing the factors associated with ACRI and factors affecting the prognosis of ACRI with COVID-19 at an early stage. Methods: 619 COVID-19 patients were from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan. T test was used for continuous variables while Chi-square test for categorical factors. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were applied to estimate odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Among the 619 OOS Level-I hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 102 (16.5%) were defined as ACRI (stage-1: 59 cases, stage-2: 43 cases). 50% of ACRI patients developed into severe cases and 25 patients died (CFR=24.5%), 42 times that of non-ACRI patients. Elderly (OR=2.83, P<0.001) , HTN (OR=2.09, P=0.005), {gamma}-globulin (OR=2.08, P=0.004), TCM (OR=0.55, P=0.017), PLT (OR=2.94, P<0.001) and NLR (OR=2.20, P=0.004) were independently correlated with ACRI. SBP[≥]140, dyspnea, DM, smoking history were correlated with ACRI-stage2 only. In the prognostic subgroup analysis of ACRI patients,{gamma}-globulin treatment could prolong LOS. TCM (OR=0.26, P=0.006), SBP[≥]160 (OR= 22.70, P=0.005), male (OR=2.66, P=0.044) were associated with severe illness while corticosteroids treatment (OR=3.34, P=0.033) and male (OR=4.303, P=0.008) with death. Surprisingly, we found the mortality of non-elderly patients is higher than elderly (32.4% VS 20.0%, P=0.164), and both IKF and RASI treatment were not correlated with any prognostic indicators including severe, death and LOS. Conclusion: This study observed that several non-traditional issues were associated with early cardiac injury in COVID-19 while many traditional cardiovascular risk factors were not. Besides elderly and male, hypertension was confirmed to be the most important risk factor.


title: Non-neuronal expression of SARS-CoV-2 entry genes in the olfactory system suggests mechanisms underlying COVID-19-associated anosmia

text: Altered olfactory function is a common symptom of COVID-19, but its etiology is unknown. A key question is whether SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) – the causal agent in COVID-19 – affects olfaction directly by infecting olfactory sensory neurons or their targets in the olfactory bulb, or indirectly, through perturbation of supporting cells. Here we identify cell types in the olfactory epithelium and olfactory bulb that express SARS-CoV-2 cell entry molecules. Bulk sequencing revealed that mouse, non-human primate and human olfactory mucosa expresses two key genes involved in CoV-2 entry, ACE2 and TMPRSS2. However, single cell sequencing and immunostaining demonstrated ACE2 expression in support cells, stem cells, and perivascular cells; in contrast, neurons in both the olfactory epithelium and bulb did not express ACE2 message or protein. These findings suggest that CoV-2 infection of non-neuronal cell types leads to anosmia and related disturbances in odor perception in COVID-19 patients.


title: Jinhua Qinggan granule, a Chinese herbal medicine against COVID-19, induces rapid changes in the plasma levels of IL-6 and IFN-Î³

text: Background: Currently, effective vaccines or specific therapeutic agents against COVID-19 are not available. However, in China, traditional Chinese herbal medicines have provided therapeutic benefit to patients with COVID-19. Jinhua Qinggan granule (JHQGG) is a Chinese multi-herbal formula previously developed for the treatment of H1N1 influenza and has been encouraged for patients clinically suspected of COVID-19 during medical observation. However, the immunological mechanism for the efficacy of JHQGG has not been confirmed. Objectives: We thus examined whether the administration of JHQGG affects hematological and immunological measures in healthy individuals. Method: We enrolled 18 healthy volunteers, all of whom tested negative for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Peripheral blood samples were collected 1 h after oral administration of JHQGG and subjected to hematological, biochemical, and cytokine tests. Results: JHQGG rapidly induced a significant decrease in the plasma level of IL-6 and an increase in the plasma level of IFN-{gamma}. Conclusions: Our finding suggests that the therapeutic efficacy of JHQGG against COVID-19 is, in part, associated with its rapid immunomodulatory activity.


Did the world overlook the media’s early warning of COVID-19?


title: Interpersonally-based fears during the covid-19 pandemic: Reflections on the fear of missing out and the fear of not mattering constructs

text: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently spreading in all the areas of the world. This ongoing pandemic has clear impacts in terms of the relevance of psychological needs. Psychological needs such as self-esteem, self-actualization, and relatedness only become relevant once basic physiological needs and safety and survivor needs have been satisfied. Because psychological constructs are not objectively existing constituents of reality but rather efforts to represent it, they tend to become more or less relevant and salient as a function of prevailing conditions. Starting from this premise, the current paper focuses on the relevance that fears with an interpersonal basis (i.e. the fear of missing out and the fear of not mattering) have during a period in which physical distancing or “social distancing” has been implicated as a crucial important public health intervention that can help stop transmission of the coronavirus. We underscore how the current health crisis impacts the self and identity of people who are confronted with the discrepancy between their usual psychological needs and current realities.


Proteomic blood profiling in mild, severe and critical COVID-19 patients


title: Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model

text: The COVID-19 disease is rapidly spreading in whole globe, affecting millions of people and pushing governments to take drastic measures to contain the outbreaks. The understanding of the dynamics of the epidemic is of great interest for the governments and health authorities that are facing COVID-19 outbreaks. The scarce presence of epidemiologic data, due to the still ongoing outbreaks, makes prediction difficult and mainly based on heuristic (fitting) models. However, these models with non-physical based parameters, can only give limited insight in the evolution of the outbreaks. In this work a SIRD compartmental model was developed to describe and predict the evolution of the Chinese and Italian outbreaks. Exploiting the similarities of the measures taken by the governments to contain the virus and of the total population number of Hubei province and Italy, the model was tuned on the Chinese outbreak (almost extinguished) and by perturbation the Italian outbreak was describe and predicted.


title: Single-Cell Analysis Reveals Macrophage-Driven T Cell Dysfunction in Severe COVID-19 Patients

text: The vastly spreading COVID-19 pneumonia is caused by SARS-CoV-2. Lymphopenia and cytokine levels are tightly associated with disease severity. However, virus-induced immune dysregulation at cellular and molecular levels remains largely undefined. Here, the leukocytes in the pleural effusion, sputum, and peripheral blood biopsies from severe and mild patients were analyzed at single-cell resolution. Drastic T cell hyperactivation accompanying elevated T cell exhaustion was observed, predominantly in pleural effusion. The mechanistic investigation identified a group of CD14+ monocytes and macrophages highly expressing CD163 and MRC1 in the biopsies from severe patients, suggesting M2 macrophage polarization. These M2-like cells exhibited up-regulated IL10, CCL18, APOE, CSF1 (M-CSF), and CCL2 signaling pathways. Further, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were observed in pleural effusion earlier than in peripheral blood. Together, our results suggest that severe SARS-CoV-2 infection causes immune dysregulation by inducing M2 polarization and subsequent T cell exhaustion. This study improves our understanding of COVID-19 pathogenesis.


COVID-19 pandemic-related anxiety in teenagers


title: Thinking about “Thinking about COVID-19”

text: Only three months after its emergence, that tiny virus is changing the values and behavior of human race In order to protect ourselves, not only about "experts" such as scientists and politicians, but also about ordinary people have to think about it So, what kind of information do we need? What are the issues and controversy? I would like to think about how to make an article called "Thinking about COVID-19" as an example of science communication At this time, it would be useful to look back on SARS I hope that this paper will be useful not only for science communicators who write articles, but also for those who want to think more broadly about how to grasp and consider the problems posed by reality and how to communicate science and technology by taking a meta-view of the problems and their treatment I readily welcome any suggestions or criticisms


title: COVID-19 peak estimation and effect of nationwide lockdown in India

text: There was a fury of the pandemic because of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) that happened in Wuhan, Hubei province, in China in December 2019. Since then, many model predictions on the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. The first incident of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India was reported on 30 January 2020, which was a student from Wuhan. The number of reported cases has started to increase day by day after 30 February 2020. The purpose of this investigation is to provide a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by utilizing real-time data from 30 February to 14 April 2020. We apply the well-known epidemic compartmental model "SEIR" to predict the epidemic peak of COVID-19, India. Since we do not have the complete detail of the infective population, using the available infected population data, we identify the R0 by using polynomial regression. By using the third-order polynomial equation, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in India is R0 = 3.3 (95%CI, 3.1 to 3.5), and the epidemic peak could be reached by September 2020.


title: Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

text: With the deepening of the understanding and research in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 have been constantly updated and improved In China, since the implementation of "Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19 (1st Trial Version)" on Jan 15, 2020, 2nd to 7th versions (including revision of 5th version) was updated from Jan 18, Jan 22, Jan 27, Feb 4, Feb 8, Feb 18 and Mar 3, respectively Versions updated subsequently provide more detailed information in many ways than the 1st and 2nd versions, so this paper will introduce the development of the main contents of the 3rd to 7th versions of COVID-19 guidelines in China, which hopes to provide help for clinical medical staff in other countries fighting with this disease


title: Awareness, knowledge, attitude and practice towards measures for prevention of the spread of COVID-19 in the Ugandans: A nationwide online cross-sectional Survey

text: Background The world is facing the Coronavirus pandemic which is highly infectious. A number of measures have been put in place to prevent its spread among the population. However, for these preventive measures to be effective, the population requires an appropriate and sufficient knowledge. Thus, a survey was conducted with the aim of assessing the awareness, knowledge, attitude and practices towards measures for prevention of the spread of Covid-19 amongst Ugandans. Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted during the lockdown in Uganda. An online questionnaire and a snowballing approach was used for participant recruitment of 18 years above literate Ugandans. Data collection was done from 6th to 15th April 2020 during which 1763 people participated. We analyzed all data using STATA 14.2, applying appropriate statistical tests. Results Out of 1763 participants, 97.6% were aware of the current pandemic. 83.9% of participants had a good knowledge score (21.8/27), 72.4% had a good attitude and 85.3% were practicing measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus disease. The ordered logistic regression showed that being a Health worker was significantly associated with a high knowledge (aOR:6 (3.32-10.93); a good attitude (aOR:2.5(1.68-3.8)]) and good practice (aOR:2.9 (1.95-4.2). On contrary, being a driver, business entrepreneur and a security personnel were found to have less rate in awareness, knowledge, attitude and practice. Conclusions Ugandans had a good overall awareness, knowledge, attitude and practice. However, there is still a gap of knowledge, attitude and practice among drivers, business entrepreneur and security personnel. There is a need to mobilize the population in the country to have the same degree of awareness and knowledge which will have an impact on attitude and practice to prevent spread of COVID-19.


title: COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study

text: Background Managing healthcare demand and capacity is especially difficult in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, where limited intensive care resources can be overwhelmed by a large number of cases requiring admission in a short space of time. If patients are unable to access this specialist resource, then death is a likely outcome. The aim of this study is to estimate the extent to which such capacity-dependent deaths can be mitigated through demand-side initiatives involving non-pharmaceutical interventions and supply-side measures to increase surge capacity or reduce length of stay. Methods A stochastic discrete event simulation model is developed to represent the key dynamics of the intensive care admissions process for COVID-19 patients. Model inputs are aligned to levers available to planners with key outputs including duration of time at maximum capacity (to inform workforce requirements), peak daily deaths (for mortuary planning), and total deaths (as an ultimate marker of intervention efficacy). The model - freely available - is applied to the COVID-19 response at a large hospital in England for which the effect of a number of possible interventions are simulated. Results Capacity-dependent deaths are closely associated with both the nature and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and availability of intensive care beds. For the hospital considered, results suggest that capacity-dependent deaths can be reduced five-fold through a combination of isolation policies, a doubling of bed capacity, and 25% reduced length of stay. Conclusions Without treatment or vaccination there is little that can be done to reduce deaths occurring when patients have otherwise been treated in the most appropriate hospital setting. Healthcare planners should therefore focus on minimising the capacity-dependent deaths that are within their influence.


docid: zqwelqoe

title: State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States: The role of local government interventions

text: During an epidemic, metrics such as R0, doubling time, and case fatality rates are important in understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. However, if collected over country or regional scales, these metrics hide important smaller-scale, local dynamics. We examine how commonly used epidemiological metrics differ for each individual state within the United States during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the case number, and trajectory of cases, differs considerably between states. We show that early non-pharmaceutical, government actions, were the most important determinant of epidemic dynamics. In particular, restricting restaurant operations was correlated with increased doubling times. Although individual states are clearly not independent, they can serve as small, natural experiments in how different demographic patterns and government responses can impact the course of an epidemic.


title: The novel Coronavirus enigma: Phylogeny and mutation analyses of SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating in India during early 2020

text: Background This is a comprehensive analysis of 46 Indian SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences available from the NCBI and GISAID repository during early 2020. Evolutionary dynamics, gene-specific phylogeny and emergence of the novel co-evolving mutations in nine structural and non-structural genes among circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains in ten states of India have been assessed. Materials and methods 46 SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences submitted from India were downloaded from the GISAID (39/46) or from NCBI (7/46) database. Phylogenetic study and analyses of mutation were based on the nine structural and non-structural genes of SARS-CoV-2 strains. Secondary structure of RdRP/NSP12 protein was predicted with respect to the novel A97V mutation. Results Phylogenetic analyses revealed the evolution of “genome-type clusters” and adaptive selection of “L” type SARS-CoV-2 strains with genetic closeness to the bat SARS-like coronaviruses than pangolin or MERS-CoVs. With regards to the novel co-evolving mutations, 2 groups are seen to circulate in India at present: the “major group” (52.2%) and the “minor group” (30.4%), harboring four and five co-existing mutations, respectively. The “major group” mutations fall in the A2a clade. All the minor group mutations, except 11083G>T (L37F, NSP6) were unique to the Indian isolates. Conclusion The study highlights rapidly evolving SARS-CoV-2 virus and co-circulation of multiple clades and sub-clades, driving this pandemic worldwide. This comprehensive study is a potential resource for monitoring the novel mutations in the viral genome, changes in viral pathogenesis, for designing vaccines and other therapeutics.


docid: irmwqjfh

title: Frequent Hand Washing for COVID-19 Prevention Can Cause Hand Dermatitis: Management Tips

text: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread globally, outpacing the capacity and resources of health systems worldwide. A therapeutic vaccine is not yet on the rise, and preventive measures are the current approach to restraint the transmission of cases. As the virus is highly contagious via respiratory route (droplets from infected persons, widely spread by coughing or sneezing) and via contact with contaminated surfaces, community transmission and spread can be decreased through the practice of regular and diligent hand hygiene. Frequent hand washing implies a prolonged exposure to water and other chemical or physical agents and may induce several pathophysiologic changes, such as epidermal barrier disruption, impairment of keratinocytes, the subsequent release of proinflammatory cytokines, activation of the skin immune system, and delayed-type hypersensitivity reactions. Adverse dermatologic effects, such as excessive skin dryness or even contact dermatitis (particularly the irritant subtype and, to a lesser extent, the allergic subtype), can occur, especially in individuals with a history of atopic dermatitis. These skin conditions are perfectly manageable, and applying a moisturizer immediately after washing hands or after using a portable hand sanitizer is the cornerstone in preventing the development of eczematous changes in the hands. In the current global context, the potential occurrence of these dermatological adverse events should in no way cause people to deviate from strict hand hygiene rules.


title: Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan on the basis of an SIQR model

text: The SIR model is modified, which may be called an SIQR model, so as to be appropriate for COVID-19 which has the following characteristics: [1] a long incubation period, [2] transmission of the virus by asymptomatic patients and [3] quarantine of patients identified through PCR testing. It is assumed that the society consists of four compartments; susceptibles (S), infecteds at large (simply called infecteds) (I), quarantined patients (Q) and recovered individuals (R), and the time evolution of the pandemic is described by a set of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the quarantine rate can be determined from the time dependence of the daily confirmed new cases, from which the number of the infecteds at large can be estimated. The number of daily confirmed new cases is shown to be proportional to the number of infecteds a characteristic time earlier, and the infection rate and quarantine rate are determined for the period from mid-February to mid-April in Japan, and transmission characteristics of the initial stages of the outbreak in Japan are analyzed. The effectiveness of different measures is discussed for controlling the outbreak and it is shown that identifying patients through PCR testing and isolating them in a quarantine is more effective than lockdown measures aimed at inhibiting social interactions of the general population. An effective reproduction number for infecteds at large is introduced which is appropriate to epidemics controlled by quarantine measures.


title: Rapid colorimetric detection of COVID-19 coronavirus using a reverse tran-scriptional loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) diagnostic plat-form: iLACO

text: The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (also known as 2019-nCoV) threatens global health, given serious cause for concern. SARS-CoV-2 is a human-to-human pathogen that caused fever, severe respiratory disease and pneumonia (known as COVID-19). By press time, more than 70,000 infected people had been confirmed worldwide. SARS-CoV-2 is very similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus broke out 17 years ago. However, it has increased transmissibility as compared with the SARS-CoV, e.g. very often infected individuals without any symptoms could still transfer the virus to others. It is thus urgent to develop a rapid, accurate and onsite diagnosis methods in order to effectively identify these early infects, treat them on time and control the disease spreading. Here we developed an isothermal LAMP based method-iLACO (isothermal LAMP based method for COVID-19) to amplify a fragment of the ORF1ab gene using 6 primers. We assured the species-specificity of iLACO by comparing the sequences of 11 related viruses by BLAST (including 7 similar coronaviruses, 2 influenza viruses and 2 normal coronaviruses). The sensitivity is comparable to Taqman based qPCR detection method, detecting synthesized RNA equivalent to 10 copies of 2019-nCoV virus. Reaction time varied from 15-40 minutes, depending on the loading of virus in the collected samples. The accuracy, simplicity and versatility of the new developed method suggests that iLACO assays can be conveniently applied with for 2019-nCoV threat control, even in those cases where specialized molecular biology equipment is not available.


title: Temporary Immunity and Multiple Waves of COVID-19

text: In this work we use mathematical modeling to describe the potential phenomena which may occur if immunity to COVID-19 lasts for a finite time instead of being permanent, i.e. if a recovered COVID-19 patient may again become susceptible to the virus after a given time interval following his/her recovery. Whether this really happens or not is unknown at the current time. If it does happen, then we find that for certain combinations of parameter values (social mobility, contact tracing, immunity threshold duration etc), the disease can keep recurring in wave after wave of outbreaks, with a periodicity approximately equal to twice the immunity threshold. Such cyclical attacks can be prevented trivially if public health interventions are strong enough to contain the disease outright. Of greater interest is the finding that should such effective interventions not prove possible, then also the second and subsequent waves can be forestalled by a consciously relaxed intervention level which finishes off the first wave before the immunity threshold is breached. Such an approach leads to higher case counts in the immediate term but significantly lower counts in the long term as well as a drastically shortened overall course of the epidemic.


Seeing what’s around the corner: Facial recognition technology may be used to create immunity “passports” and other ways of tracking our health status. Are we watching?


title: Racial segregation, testing sites access, and COVID-19 incidence rate in Massachusetts, USA

text: The U.S. has merely 4% of the world population but 25% of the world's COVID-19 cases. Massachusetts has been in the leading position of total cases since the outbreak in the U.S. Racial residential segregation is a fundamental cause of racial disparities in health. Moreover, disparities of access to health care have a large impact on COVID-19 cases. Thus, this study estimates racial segregation and disparities in testing sites access and employs economic, demographic, and transportation variables at the city/town level in Massachusetts. Spatial regression models are applied to evaluate the relationships between COVID-19 incidence rate and related variables. This is the first study to apply spatial analysis methods across neighborhoods in the U.S. to examine the COVID-19 incidence rate. The findings are: 1) residential segregations of Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Black/African Americans have a significantly positive association with COVID-19 incidence rate, indicating the higher susceptibility of COIVD-19 infections among minority; 2) The Black has the shortest drive time to testing sites, followed by Hispanic, Asian, and Whites. The drive time to testing sites is significantly negatively associated with the COVID-19 incidence rate, implying the importance of testing location being accessed by all populations; 3) Poverty rate and road density are significant explanatory variables. Importantly, overcrowding represented by more than one person per room is a significant variable found to be positively associated with COVID-19 incidence rate, suggesting the effectiveness of social distancing for reducing infection; 4) Different from previous studies, elderly population rate is not statistically significant with incidence rate because the elderly population in Massachusetts is less distributed in the hot spot regions of COVID-19 infections. The findings in this study provide useful insights for policymakers to propose new strategies to contain the COVID-19 transmissions in Massachusetts.


docid: toodbcxu

title: On-machine measurement-based compensation for machining of thin web parts

text: Abstract Thin web parts are widely used in the aerospace industry; however, serious machining errors may happen due to their low rigidity. In this study, a highly automatic method that integrates machining status monitoring, on-machine measurement (OMM) inspection, machining error modeling and real time compensation is proposed and developed. The OMM inspection is firstly applied to measure the comprehensive machining errors, the Hampel filtering, the triangulation-based cubic interpolation and a machine learning algorithm are then used to train the machining error model. Finally, the real time compensation of high-density cutting points is realized by developing the compensation system based on External Machine Zero Point Shift (EMZPS) function of machine tool. The proposed method was validated through three sets of compensation experiment of a thin web part. The results revealed that 58.1%, 68.4% and 62.6% of the machining error ranges were decreased, respectively. This method demonstrates immense potential for further applications in efficiency and accuracy improvement of thin-walled freeform surface parts.


title: Strategic release of lockdowns in a COVID infection model

text: The COVID-19 Pandemic has impacted the world's socio-economic system, resulting in a serious health crisis and lockdowns around the world. As the growth of infection slows, decisions regarding easing of lockdown restrictions are required, keeping in view the capacity of the health-care system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of a multi-phased release of the population from lockdown. Using the SIR model for epidemic spread, we design and implement a method to determine the earliest time of release from lockdown restrictions, constrained by a specified threshold on the subsequent peaks of infection. Trade-offs between the threshold and the earliest times of removing lockdown restrictions are illustrated. Additionally, we consider alternative policy decisions where the population is released gradually from lockdown restrictions and illustrate the trade-offs between the rate of release of population and number of active infections.


title: COVID-19 experience: first Italian survey on healthcare staff members from a Mother-Child Research hospital using combined molecular and rapid immunoassays test

text: The fast spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has become a global threat hitting the worldwide fragile health care system. In Italy, there is a continued COVID-19 growth of cases and deaths that requires control measures for the correct management of the epidemiological emergency. To contribute to increasing the overall knowledge of COVID-19, systematic tests in the general population are required. Here, we describe the first Italian survey performed in 727 employees belonging to a Mother-Child Research hospital tested for both viral (nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs) and antibody presence. Individuals were divided into three risk categories (high, medium and low) according to their job activity. Only one subject was positive at the swab test while 17.2% of the cohort was positive for the presence of antibodies. Results highlighted that the presence of Positive antibodies is significantly associated with high and medium risk exposure occupation (p-value=0.026) as well as cold and conjunctivitis symptoms (p-value=0.016 and 0.042 respectively). Moreover, among healthcare professionals, the category of medical doctors showed a significant association with the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (p-value=0.0127). Finally, we detected a rapid decrease in antibody intensity between two assessments performed within a very short period (p-value=0.009). Overall, the present study increases our knowledge of the epidemiological data of COVID-19 infection in Italy, suggesting a high prevalence of immune individuals (i.e. at least among at-risk categories) and the efficacy of the combined diagnostic protocol to monitor the possible outbreak.


Breaking News: Ways EPs and ED Staff Can Flatten the COVID-19 Curve


title: The importance of the timing of quarantine measures before symptom onset to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks - illustrated by Hong Kong's intervention model

text: Background: The rapid expansion of the current COVID-19 outbreak has caused a global pandemic but how quarantine-based measures can prevent or suppress an outbreak without other more intrusive interventions has not yet been determined. Hong Kong had a massive influx of travellers from mainland China, where the outbreak began, during the early expansion period coinciding with the Lunar New Year festival; however, the spread of the virus has been relatively limited even without imposing severe control measures, such as a full city lockdown. Understanding how quarantine measures in Hong Kong were effective in limiting community spread can provide us with valuable insights into how to suppress an outbreak. However, challenges exist in evaluating the effects of quarantine on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Hong Kong due to the fact that the effects of border control have to be also taken into account. Methods: We have developed a two-layered susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) meta-population model which can estimate the effects of quarantine on virus transmissibility after stratifying infections into imported and subsequent community infections, in a region closely connected to the outbreak's source. We fitted the model to both imported and local confirmed case data with symptom onset from 18 January to 29 February 2020 in Hong Kong, together with daily transportation data and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from Wuhan and mainland China. After model fitting, epidemiological parameters and the timing of the start of quarantine for infected cases were estimated. Results: The model estimated that the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Hong Kong was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86), achieved through quarantining infected cases -0.57 days (95% CI, -4.21 - 3.88) relative to symptom onset, with an estimated incubation time of 5.43 days (95% CI, 1.30 - 9.47). However, if delaying the quarantine start by more than 1.43 days, the reproduction number would be greater than one, making community spread more likely. The model also determined the timing of the start of quarantine necessary in order to suppress an outbreak in the presence of population immunity. Conclusion: The results suggest that the early quarantine for infected cases before symptom onset is a key factor to prevent COVID-19 outbreak.


title: Population-scale testing can suppress the spread of COVID-19

text: We propose an additional intervention that would contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, offer more protection for people working in essential jobs, and help guide an eventual reopening of society. The intervention is based on: (1) testing every individual (2) repeatedly, and (3) self-quarantine of infected individuals. Using a standard epidemiological model (SIR), we show here that by identification and isolation of the majority of infectious individuals, including those who may be asymptomatic, the reproduction number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 would be reduced well below 1.0, and the epidemic would collapse. We replicate these observations in a more complex stochastic dynamic model on a social network graph. We also find that the testing regime would be additive to other interventions, and be effective at any level of prevalence. If adopted as a policy, any industrial society could sustain the regime for as long as it takes to find a safe and effective cure or vaccine. Our model also indicates that unlike sampling-based tests, population-scale testing does not need to be very accurate: false negative rates up to 15% could be tolerated if 80% comply with testing every ten days, and false positives can be almost arbitrarily high when a high fraction of the population is already effectively quarantined. Testing at the required scale would be feasible if existing qPCR-based methods are scaled up and multiplexed. A mass produced, low throughput field test kit could also be carried out at home. Economic analysis also supports the feasibility of the approach: current reagent costs for tests are in the range of a dollar or less, and the estimated benefits for population-scale testing are so large that the policy would be cost-effective even if the costs were larger by more than two orders of magnitude. To identify both active and previous infections, both viral RNA and antibodies could be tested. All technologies to build such test kits, and to produce them in the scale required to test the entire world's population exist already. Integrating them, scaling up production, and implementing the testing regime will require resources and planning, but at a scale that is very small compared to the effort that every nation would devote to defending itself against a more traditional foe.


Challenges to EHDI systems amid the COVID-19 crisis


Call for Papers for a Special Issue on COVID-19 and Novel Mixed Methods Methodological Approaches During Catastrophic Social Changes


Low Trust in a Time of Plague


title: Genetically informed precision drug repurposing for lung function and implications for respiratory infection

text: Impaired lung function is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Restrictive and obstructive lung disorders are a large contributor to decreased lung function, as well as the acute impact of infection. Measures of pulmonary function are heritable, and thus, we sought to utilise genomics to propose novel drug repurposing candidates which could improve respiratory outcomes. Lung function measures were found to be genetically correlated with metabolic and hormone traits which could be pharmacologically modulated, with a causal effect of increased fasting glucose on diminished lung function supported by latent causal variable models and Mendelian randomisation. We developed polygenic scores for lung function specifically within pathways with known drug targets to prioritise individuals who may benefit from particular drug repurposing opportunities, accompanied by transcriptome-wide association studies to identify drug-gene interactions with potential lung function increasing modes of action. These drug repurposing candidates were further considered relative to the host-viral interactome of three viruses with associated respiratory pathology (SARS-CoV2, influenza, and human adenovirus). We uncovered an enrichment amongst glycaemic pathways of human proteins which putatively interact with virally expressed SARS-CoV2 proteins, suggesting that antihyperglycaemic agents may have a positive effect both on lung function and SARS-CoV2 progression.


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title: Estimation of the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 in Vietnam

text: Objective: To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases. Methods: Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models. Results: A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CI): 4.89 - 8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CI 3.05 - 5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection. Conclusion: This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks.


title: Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19 among primary and middle school students during the COVID-19 outbreak period in Beijing: An online cross-sectional survey

text: Abstract Purpose: This study investigated the KAP towards COVID-19 and their influencing factors among primary and middle school students during the self-quarantine period in Beijing. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study among students from 18 primary and middle schools in Beijing during March 2020. Stratified cluster sampling was conducted. Demographic and KAP-related COVID-19 information was collected through an online questionnaire. The influencing factors were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 7,377 students were included. The overall correct rate for COVID-19 knowledge was 74.1%, while only 31.5% and 40.5% could identify the high-risk places of cross-infection and warning body temperature. Although 94.5% of respondents believed the epidemic could be controlled, over 50% expressed various concerns about the epidemic. The compliance rates for basic preventing behaviors were all over 80%, while those for "rational and effective ventilation" (39.2%) and "dinning separately" (38.6%) were low. The KAP levels were significantly differed according to various school categories of students. The COVID-19 knowledge (OR= 3.309, 95% CI: 2.921, 3.748) and attitude (OR=1.145, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.308) were associated with preventive practices. Besides, female, urban students, those with a healthy lifestyle, and those with the willingness to engage in healthcare tended to have better preventive practices. Conclusion: Most students in Beijing hold a high level of knowledge, optimistic attitudes and have appropriate practices towards COVID-19. However, targeted interventions are still necessary, especially for students with high-risk characteristics. Keywords: COVID-19; primary and middle school students; knowledge; attitude; practice


title: Traditional Chinese medicine for treatment of coronavirus disease 2019: A review

text: Since late December in 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 has received extensive attention for its widespread prevalence. A number of clinical workers and researchers have made great efforts to understand the pathogenesis and clinical characteristics and develop effective drugs for treatment. However, no effective drugs with antiviral effects on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have been discovered currently. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has gained abundant experience in the treatment of infectious diseases for thousands of years. In this review, the authors summarized the clinical outcome, pathogensis and current application of TCM on coronavirus disease 2019. Further, we discussed the potential mechanisms and the future research directions of TCM against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.


COVID-19: What Cancer Patients & Survivors Need to Know


title: Nelfinavir inhibits replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in vitro

text: In December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. No specific treatment has been established against coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) so far. Therefore, it is urgently needed to identify effective antiviral agents for the treatment of this disease, and several approved drugs such as lopinavir have been evaluated. Here, we report that nelfinavir, an HIV-1 protease inhibitor, potently inhibits replication of SARS-CoV-2. The effective concentrations for 50% and 90% inhibition (EC50 and EC90) of nelfinavir were 1.13 µM and 1.76 µM respectively, the lowest of the nine HIV-1 protease inhibitors including lopinavir. The trough and peak serum concentrations of nelfinavir were three to six times higher than EC50 of this drug. These results suggest that nelfinavir is a potential candidate drug for the treatment of COVID-19 and should be assessed in patients with COVID-19.


title: The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries

text: Objective. Countries presently apply different strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak. Differences in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various trajectories in terms of mortality at country scale. Our objective in this manuscript is to disentangle the future of second-line European countries (i.e. countries that present, today, a moderate death rate) with respect to the current COVID-19 wave. Method. We propose a data-driven approach, grounded on a mixture model, to forecast the dynamics of the number of deaths from COVID-19 in a given focal country using data from countries that are ahead in time in terms of COVID-19-induced mortality. In this approach, the mortality curves of ahead-in-time countries are used to build predictors, which are then used as the components of the mixture model. This approach was applied to eight second-line European countries (Austria, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Sweden), using Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom as well as the Hubei province in China to build predictors. For this analysis, we used data pooled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Results. In general, the second-line European countries tend to follow relatively mild mortality curves (typically, those of Switzerland and Hubei) rather than fast and severe ones (typically, those of Spain, Italy, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom). From a methodological viewpoint, the performance of our forecasting approach is about 80% up to 8 days in the future, as soon as the focal country has accumulated at least two hundreds of deaths. Discussion. Our results suggest that the continuation of the current COVID-19 wave across Europe will likely be mitigated, and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave.


title: Effects of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Maternal, Perinatal and Neonatal Outcomes: a Systematic Review of 266 Pregnancies

text: Objective: To perform a systematic review of available published literature on pregnancies affected by COVID-19 to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on maternal, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. Methods: We performed a systematic review to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on pregnancy, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database and Wan Fang Data until April 20, 2020 (studies were identified through PubMed alert after April 20, 2020). For the research strategy, combinations of the following keywords and MeSH terms were used: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019, pregnancy, gestation, maternal, mothers, vertical transmission, maternal-fetal transmission, intrauterine transmission, neonates, infant, delivery. Eligibility criteria included laboratory-confirmed and/or clinically diagnosed COVID-19, patient was pregnant on admission, availability of clinical characteristics, including maternal, perinatal or neonatal outcomes. Exclusion criteria were unpublished reports, unspecified date and location of the study or suspicion of duplicate reporting, and unreported maternal or perinatal outcomes. No language restrictions were applied. Results: We identified several case-reports and case-series but only 19 studies, including a total of 266 pregnant women with COVID-19, met eligibility criteria and were finally included in the review. In the combined data from seven case-series, the maternal age ranged from 20 to 41 years and the gestational age on admission ranged from 5 to 41 weeks. The most common symptoms at presentation were fever, cough, dyspnea/shortness of breath and fatigue. The rate of severe pneumonia was relatively low, with the majority of the cases requiring intensive care unit admission. Almost all cases from the case-series had positive computer tomography chest findings. There were six and 22 cases that had nucleic-acid testing in vaginal mucus and breast milk samples, respectively, which were negative for SARS-CoV-2. Only a few cases had spontaneous miscarriage or abortion. 177 cases had delivered, of which the majority by Cesarean section. The gestational age at delivery ranged from 28 to 41 weeks. Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes ranged from 7 to 10 and 8 to 10, respectively. A few neonates had birthweight less than 2500 grams and over one-third of cases were transferred to neonatal intensive care unit. There was one case each of neonatal asphyxia and neonatal death. There were 113 neonates that had nucleic-acid testing in throat swab, which was negative for SARS-CoV-2. From the case-reports, two maternal deaths among pregnant women with COVID-19 were reported. Conclusions: The clinical characteristics of pregnant women with COVID-19 are similar to those of nonpregnant adults with COVID-19. Currently, there is no evidence that pregnant women with COVID-19 are more prone to develop severe pneumonia, in comparison to nonpregnant patients. The subject of vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains controversial and more data is needed to investigate this possibility. Most importantly, in order to collect meaningful pregnancy and perinatal outcome data, we urge researchers and investigators to reference previously published cases in their publications and to record such reporting when the data of a case is being entered into a registry or several registries.


title: Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

text: Background: Since the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread across China, causing multiple introductions in 109 countries/territories/areas as of March 10th. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Recently more evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which suggest the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources. Methods: We employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City and epidemiological data of Japanese evacuees from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis. Results: Our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 reached values as high as 5.20 (95%CrI: 5.04-5.47) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a declined R at 0.58 (95%CrI: 0.51-0.64), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1905526 (95%CrI: 1350283-2655936) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5-26.6%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08-0.17%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.19% Conclusions: We have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of our approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.


The validation of the original and modified Caprini score in COVID-19 patients


title: Estimating Impact of Austerity policies in COVID-19 fatality rates:Examining the dynamics of economic policy and Case Fatality Rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in OCED countries

text: The paper will attempt to estimate factors which determine the variability of case fatality rates of COVID-19 across OCED countries in recent time. The objective of the paper is to estimate the impact of government health policy on fatality rates (Case fatality rates) of COVID-19 in countries while controlling for other demographic and economic characteristics. The analysis is of done using non-parametric regression method, i.e. Quantile regression. The result from quartile regressions analysis shows that a policy of Austerity (health expenditure cuts) significantly increases the mortality rates of COVID-19 in OCED countries. The policy implication of the study is the need for a robust public-funded health system with wider accessibility to deals with a major public health crisis like a COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

text: Mobile geolocation data is a valuable asset in the assessment of movement patterns of a population. Once a highly contagious disease takes place in a location the movement patterns aid in predicting the potential spatial spreading of the disease, hence mobile data becomes a crucial tool to epidemic models. In this work, based on millions of anonymized mobile visits data in Brazil, we investigate the most probable spreading patterns of the COVID-19 within states of Brazil. The study is intended to help public administrators in action plans and resources allocation, whilst studying how mobile geolocation data may be employed as a measure of population mobility during an epidemic. The first part of the study focus on the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the period of March 2020, when the disease first started to spread in these states. Metapopulation models for the disease spread were simulated in order to evaluate the risk of infection of each city within the states, by ranking them according to the time the disease will take to infect each city. We observed that, although the high risk regions are those closer to the capital cities, where the outbreak has started, there are also cities in the countryside with great risk.


title: Cell-intrinsic differences between human airway epithelial cells from children and adults

text: The airway epithelium is a key protective barrier whose integrity is preserved by the self-renewal and differentiation of basal progenitor cells. Epithelial cells are central to the pathogenesis of multiple lung diseases. In chronic diseases, increasing age is a principle risk factor. In acute diseases, such as COVID-19, children suffer less severe symptoms than adults and have a lower rate of mortality. Few studies have explored differences between airway epithelial cells in children and adults to explain this age dependent variation in diseases. Here, we perform bulk RNA sequencing studies in laser-capture microdissected whole epithelium, FACS-sorted basal cells and cultured basal cells, as well as in vitro cell proliferation experiments, to address the intrinsic molecular differences between paediatric and adult airway basal cells. We find that, while the cellular composition of the paediatric and adult tracheobronchial epithelium is broadly similar, in cell culture, paediatric airway epithelial cells displayed higher colony forming ability, better in vitro growth and outcompeted adult cells in competitive proliferation assays. In RNA sequencing experiments, we observed potentially important differences in airway epithelial gene expression between samples from children and adults. However, genes known to be associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were not differentially expressed between children and adults. Our results chart cell-intrinsic differences in transcriptional profile and regenerative capacity between proximal airway epithelial cells of children and adults.