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CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


First Quarter

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ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report present developments
in the Nigeria economy, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which
is published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the
Nigerian economy, as well as global development that impact the domestic
economy. In addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit
of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors,
and the public. Free download of the Report, including current and past
issues can be obtained from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All
inquiries concerning the Report should be directed to the Director,
Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja,
Nigeria.


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Content


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Tables
Table 3: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major
Agricultural Export Commodities for First Quarter 2024
Table 5: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the
Table 8: Money and Credit Growth Over Preceding December
Table 11: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian

Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries 10
Figure 11: Sub-sectors with Largest Contribution to GDP Growth
Figure 12: Sub-sectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth


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Figure 20: Contribution of Processed food and Farm produce to
Figure 25: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition
Figure 28: Developments in Reserve Money and Money
Figure 38: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index .49
Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy


1 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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SUMMARY
Global economic activity expanded in Q12024 on account of renewed
business optimism and improved consumer demand. From 50.47 index
points in Q42023, global composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
rose to 52.07 index points in the review period. Consumer price measures
recorded mixed outcomes across regions amidst contractionary monetary
policy stance and declining energy prices. Global financial markets
remained bullish on the prospect of interest rate cuts by monetary
authorities. Despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East region and
production cuts by OPEC, crude oil spot prices fell, due to decreased
demand from the OECD countries. Accordingly, the average spot price of
Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (34.9° API), declined by 1.60
per cent to US$85.58 per barrel (pb) in Q12024, compared with US$86.97
pb in the preceding quarter. The prices of Brent, Forcados, WTI and OPEC
Reference Basket, all exhibited similar trends as the Bonny Light.
The domestic economy grew in Q12024 despite strong headwinds. The
real GDP grew by 2.98 per cent, compared with 3.46 per cent in Q42023,
driven by expansions in both oil and non-oil sectors. Inflation pressures
persisted, as the headline inflation rose to 33.20 per cent, compared with
28.92 per cent in Q42023, owing to rising energy and input costs, and
protracted security challenges. Core inflation increased to 25.90 per cent
from 23.06 per cent in the preceding quarter, due to increased cost of input
and other structural factors. Food inflation rose to 40.01 per cent as against
33.93 per cent in the preceding quarter. Domestic crude oil production rose
by 1.53 per cent to 1.33 mbpd, from 1.31 mbpd in the preceding quarter,
reflecting increased production due to enhanced security surveillance on
oil infrastructure.
Provisional data showed an improvement in fiscal operations in Q12024.
Federally collected revenue rose by 14.55 per cent, relative to the level in
the preceding quarter, but fell short of the benchmark by 45.81 per cent.
Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) retained revenue was 14.06 and
70.49 per cent below the levels in Q42023 and the target, respectively.

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Q12024
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FGN expenditure dropped by 25.45 and 48.69 per cent, below the levels in
the preceding quarter and the target, respectively. The faster decline in
expenditure relative to revenue narrowed fiscal deficit by 31.30 and 2.13
per cent, relative to Q42023 and the target levels. At N97,340.71 billion
(41.52% of GDP), total public debt outstanding was slightly above the
40.00 per cent benchmark as at end-December 2023.
The banking sector remained resilient, as financial soundness indicators
were, largely, within regulatory thresholds. Monetary policy stance
continued to be restrictive in the review period, even as the effect of
exchange rate revaluation on net foreign assets lifted broad money supply
(M3) by 16.52 per cent over the level at end-December 2023. Banking
system liquidity increased by 17.52 per cent to N292.31 billion from
N248.74 billion in the preceding quarter, reflecting the 18.31 per cent rise
in Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distribution during the
quarter and CRR refunds to banks. Rising interest rates aided investor
appetite for domestic securities, illustrated by the higher subscriptions for
the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Federal Government of Nigeria
(FGN) bonds in the review quarter. The performance of the Nigerian capital
market improved in Q12024, occasioned by an impressive Q42023 and
full-year 2023 corporate earnings results.
Analysis of the external sector showed that the current account fell into a
deficit position relative to the surplus recorded in the preceding quarter, on
account of reduced trade surplus in the goods account. The financial
account recorded a lower net incurrence of financial liabilities, driven by
portfolio investment debt securities. The international investment position
posted a higher net financial liability of US$87.55 billion. The external
reserves which stood at US$33.12 billion at end-March 2024 could cover
4.4 months of import for goods and services or 5.5 months of import for
goods only. The average exchange rate at the Nigerian foreign exchange
market depreciated to ₦1,304.72/US$, from ₦841.15/US$ in Q42023.


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Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity continued to expand during the first quarter
of 2024 following renewed business optimism and improved
consumer demand. The trend in consumer prices was diverse
across regions amidst contractionary monetary policy stance and
declining energy prices. Global financial markets remained bullish on
the expectation of imminent interest rate cuts by monetary
authorities.
1.1
Global Economic Activity
Global economic activity increased in the first quarter of 2024,
with faster growth in both manufacturing and services sectors
relative to the preceding quarter. The global composite
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.07 index points in
Q12024, from 50.47 index points in Q42023, due to improved
consumer demand across sectors and regions. The manufacturing
sector improved to 50.30 index points compared with the 49.03 index
points in the preceding quarter driven by increases in the consumer,
intermediate and investment goods industries. Similarly, the pace of
expansion of the services sector, at 52.40 index points, was higher
than the 50.87 index points recorded in the preceding quarter, on
account of higher new orders and employment.


Global
Economic
Activity
Summary

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Table 1: Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Source: JP Morgan

Economic activity in Advanced Economies (AEs) was uneven
during Q12024. In the UK and Italy, economic activity expanded as
the PMI rose to 52.93 and 50.90 index points, respectively,
compared with the 50.50 and 47.90 index points, owing to higher
new jobs that enhanced consumer demand, especially in the
services industry. In the same vein, the rise in new export business
orders, driven by improved foreign demand, raised the PMI in Spain
(to 53.57 from 50.07 index points), the US (52.23 from 50.77 index
points), and Japan (51.27 from 50.03 index points).
The PMI in France and Canada increased to 46.80 index points
each, from 44.67 and 45.40 index points, respectively, but remained
in the contraction region. The improvement was attributed to an
uptick in private sector employment and increased business
confidence, especially in Canada. In Germany, economic activity
contracted further, due to reduced new orders, exacerbated by
geopolitical tensions and high interest rates.

Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Composite
50.90
50.47
52.07
Employment
51.00
50.33
50.77
New Business
50.03
50.03
51.70
New Export Business
47.93
48.27
49.53
Future Output
61.93
61.73
63.50
Input Prices
57.03
56.10
56.23
Output Prices
53.57
53.33
53.30


Manufacturing
48.90
49.03
50.30
Services (Business Activity)
51.53
50.87
52.40
New Business
50.73
50.60
52.17
New Export Business
50.73
49.60
50.53
Future Activity
62.50
62.47
63.90
Employment
51.30
50.87
51.17
Outstanding Business
48.47
48.77
49.63
Input Prices
59.23
59.74
57.47
Prices Charged
54.63
54.03
53.90
Economic
activity in
Advanced
Economies

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Figure 1: PMI in Selected Advanced Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.

Economic activity in most Emerging Markets and Developing
Economies (EMDEs) expanded in Q12024 driven by higher
demand. PMI in India and Brazil rose to 61.03 and 54.47 index
points from 58.10 and 50.33 index points, respectively, in the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to an increase in
new orders owing to increased domestic and foreign demand.
Similarly, new orders buoyed economic activity in Indonesia and
China as the PMI rose to 53.27 and 52.57 index points, from 51.80
and 51.40 index points, respectively. Russia and Mexico
experienced slight decreases in PMI to 53.33 and 51.57 index points,
respectively, from 53.90 and 52.20 index points in Q42023. In
Mexico, firms remained confident about new orders and output, but
concerns over lower US demand slowed economic activity. Despite
the strong performance of the manufacturing sector in Russia, the
weak performance of the services sector undermined economic
outturn.
Conversely, economic activity improved in Turkey and South Africa
though the respective PMI, at 49.80 and 49.47 index points,
remained in the contraction region. South Africa experienced

UNITED STATES
UNITED KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
50-point Threshold
Economic
activity in
EMDEs

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improvement in business sub-activity index and new orders, while
Turkey marked its first expansion in the manufacturing sector after
two quarters of contractions, driven mainly by a rebound in output.
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.
Note: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI.

1.2 Global Inflation
The trend in consumer prices was divergent across regions
amidst contractionary monetary policy stance and declining
energy prices. In the AEs, some European countries, especially
France (2.30%) and Germany (2.20%), continue to see inflation rate
approach the 2.00 per cent target of the European Central Bank
(ECB), following slowdown in energy and food prices. The United
Kingdom also recorded a decline in inflation rate to 3.20 per cent,
from 4.00 per cent in Q42023, on the back of the significant fall in
food prices, with core inflation dropping to its lowest level since 2021.
In the United States, however, inflation increased to 3.50 per cent,
from 3.40 per cent in the previous quarter, driven by the increases in
consumer, investment, and government spendings. Inflation rate


CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH
AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
50-point Threshold
Global
Inflation

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rose to 3.20 per cent in Spain and 1.18 per cent in Italy, from 3.10
and 0.59 per cent, respectively, due to increased prices of utilities
and housing. In Japan, inflation rose to 2.70 per cent from 2.60 per
cent in the previous quarter due mainly, to base effect, as the impact
of energy subsidies introduced by the government in February 2023
waned.
Figure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics
Inflation outcome in EMDEs was diverse in the review period
owing to country idiosyncrasies. Notable moderations were
recorded in Mexico (4.42% from 4.70%), Brazil (3.93% from 4.62%)
and India (4.85% from 5.69%). Lower transportation costs
dampened inflation in Mexico and Brazil, while the moderation in
India derived primarily from easing food prices.
Inflation rose in Russia (7.70% from 7.40%), South Africa (5.30%
from 5.10%), and Indonesia (3.05% from 2.61%), due to elevated
costs of food and services. Likewise, inflation in Turkey rose to 68.50
per cent, compared with 64.80 per cent in the preceding quarter,
underlined by rising food, hotel and education prices amidst currency
weakness. In China, consumer prices increased to 0.10 per cent in
Q12024, from deflation of 0.30 per cent in the preceding quarter,

United
States
United
Kingdom
Japan
Canada
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024

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attributed to increased spending during the Lunar New Year holiday.
However, the inflation remained below the country’s target of 3.00
per cent.
Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics
1.3
Global Financial Markets
1.3.1 Global Financial Conditions
The global stock market sustained its bullish trend in Q12024,
buoyed by the expectation of interest rate cuts by monetary
authorities. Stock markets in AEs rallied due to moderating
inflationary pressures and the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Significant growths were recorded for the EURO STOXX (12.43%),
German DAX (10.39%), French CAC (8.78%) and UK FTSE 100
(2.84%). Japan’s Nikkei 225 grew by 20.03 per cent, outperforming
other AEs, as rising optimism on the Japanese economy spurred the
surge in foreign capital inflows. In the US, despite the momentum of
technology stocks that was powered by the AI boom, the pace of
equity market growth was slowed by the diminished optimism of an
early interest rate cut. Hence, the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones
indices rose by 10.16, 8.49, and 5.62 per cent, respectively.

China
South
Africa
India
Mexico
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024

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The performance of equity markets in EMDEs was mixed and
reflected the effects of moderating inflationary pressures and
domestic headwinds. India's BSE Sensex 30 index increased by
1.96 per cent, on account of robust economic conditions and the
expectation of policy continuity after the national elections. The
Russian-IMOEX also rose by 6.89 per cent, supported by a
strengthening ruble.
In contrast, the Chinese-SZI recorded 1.91 per cent negative returns,
due to continued weaknesses in the property market and cautious
investor sentiment of economic outlook, despite ongoing fiscal
stimulus. Brazil’s BOVESPA also contracted by 4.53 per cent,
following the reduced prospect of an early rate cut by the US Fed.
Fluctuations in exchange rate and declines in metal prices dragged
the South Africa's JALSH index by 3.07 per cent.
Figure 5: Performance of Key Global Stocks (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

An upward trend was generally observed in the global bond
market, as the likelihood of an imminent rate cut is deferred. In
AEs, the yield on 10-year bond rose, signalling falling prices as
investors' expectations of policy rate cuts continued. Quarter-toquarter comparison indicated that the 10-year bond yields rose in the

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx

Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q4 2023
Q1 2024

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US (4.19% from 3.86%), UK (3.94% from 3,54%) and Euro area
(2.29% from 2.03%). A similar upward trend was observed in
Canada and Japan, where 10-year bond yields increased to 3.47
and 0.71 per cent, respectively, from 3.11 and 0.62 per cent in
Q42023. However, Italy experienced a slight decrease in bond yields
to 3.68 per cent, from 3.70 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Within the EMDEs, bond yields in Turkey and Indonesia rose
marginally to 25.13 and 6.69 per cent, respectively, riding on
elevated inflation in Turkey and uncertainties surrounding elections
in Indonesia. In Russia and South Africa, sustained inflation
pressures raised 10-year bond yields to 13.82 and 10.62 per cent,
respectively. The yield in India, however, recorded a marginal
decline to 7.05 as anticipation of India's inclusion in JPMorgan's
index amplified the demand for bonds and pushed up bond prices.
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected
Countries

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)


USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies
Q3 2023
Q4 2023

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In the currency market, the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan
appreciated against the US dollar by 2.04 and 0.70 per cent,
respectively, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter. The
appreciation of the Russian ruble was due to capital controls, while
the strengthening of the Chinese yuan was attributed to increased
capital inflow. The South African rand, however, depreciated by 8.86
per cent in Q12024, due to fragile investor confidence amidst high
inflation, disruptive power outages and weakened macroeconomic
outlook.
Table 2: Selected EMDEs’ Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters
1.4
Global Commodity Markets
World crude oil supply fell marginally in Q12024, highlighting
lower outputs, especially, by non-OPEC producers. Total world
crude oil supply decreased by 1.29 per cent to 101.53 million barrels
per day (mbpd) in Q12024, compared with 102.86 mbpd in the
preceding quarter. This was driven, largely, by a decrease in nonOPEC crude oil supply.
Non-OPEC crude supply declined by 1.01 mbpd or 1.32 per cent to
75.27 mbpd in Q12024, compared with 76.28 mbpd in the preceding
Period
Chinese
Yuan
Nigerian
Naira
South
African
Rand
Russian Ruble
Q12023

Q42023

Q12024

World Crude
Supply and
Demand
Selected
Emerging
Markets
Currencies

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quarter, driven, mainly, by lower output in the United States, Mexico,
and Canada. Likewise, OPEC crude oil supply declined slightly by
0.32 mbpd or 1.20 per cent to 26.26 mbpd in Q12024, following lower
supplies from Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Algeria and Congo.
World crude oil demand fell marginally by 0.16 per cent to 101.73
mbpd in Q12024, from 101.89 mbpd in the preceding quarter. The
slight decrease was due, mainly, to reduced demand for gasoline,
diesel, and LPG, as travelling activities dropped, particularly in
Europe, United States and the Former Soviet Union.
Crude oil spot prices fell in Q12024, on account of decreased
demand from the OECD regions, including Europe and the
United States, despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East
region and production cuts by OPEC. The average spot price of
Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (34.9° API), declined by
1.60 per cent to US$85.58 per barrel (pb) in Q12024, from US$86.97
pb in the preceding quarter. The prices of Brent, at US$84.94 pb,
Forcados (US$87.72 pb), WTI (US$79.02 pb) and OPEC Reference
Basket (US$81.75 pb), all exhibited similar trends as the Bonny
Light.
Figure 7: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel)

Source : Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024
mbp
Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket
Crude Oil
Prices

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The average spot prices of silver and gold rose, while those of
platinum and palladium declined. The average spot prices of
platinum and palladium fell by 0.57 and 10.58 per cent to US$906.60
per ounce and US$974.99 per ounce, respectively, in Q12024,
compared with US$911.77 per ounce and US$1,090.38 per ounce
in the preceding quarter. The decrease was attributed to weakened
demand from the automotive industry amidst a supply glut.
Conversely, the prices of gold and silver rose by 4.78 and 0.47 per
cent, to US$2,071.25 per ounce and US$23.34 per ounce, relative
to the levels in the preceding quarter. The price increase was driven
by rising tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted the production
and transportation of precious metals.
Figure 8: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)
The all-commodity price index of Nigeria’s major agricultural
export rose in the review period. At 135.5 (2010=100), the index
increased by 8.14 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 driven, largely,
by the 46.85 per cent rise in the price of cocoa and 24.38 per cent
for coffee. The sharp increase in the price of cocoa was due to
climate induced drought in major producing countries in West Africa,

Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter
Other Mineral
Commodities
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices

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which account for about 80 per cent of global supply of cocoa. The
rise in the price of coffee reflected increased demand by a growing
middle-class in China and the rest of Asia. Other commodities that
recorded price increases included palm oil (7.58%), rubber (5.89%),
and cotton (3.80%). Price declines were, however, recorded for
wheat (11.19%), soyabean (7.84%), and groundnut (0.78%).
Table 3: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major
Agricultural Export Commodities for First Quarter 2024 (US$;
Jan 2010=100)

COMMODITY
2023Q1/a
2023Q4/a
2024Q1/b
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Sources: (a) World Bank Pink Sheet (b) Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates
1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
Monetary policy stance remained restrictive, as most central
banks left policy rates unchanged. In the US, amidst widespread
expectation of rate cut, the Fed retained policy rates at a 5.25 – 5.50
per cent band. The incongruous uptick in inflation during the review
period, however, implied continued delay of the anticipated rate cut.
To further moderate inflation, the ECB and Bank of Canada held
rates at a multi-year high of 4.50 and 5.00 per cent, respectively, in
the same period. The Bank of England maintained a cautious
approach towards curtailing inflation pressures as it kept policy rate
at 5.25 per cent.

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Most emerging economies held policy rate unchanged, except for a
few with high inflationary pressures. China and India retained rates
at 3.45 and 6.50 per cent, respectively, as inflation in China stayed
low, and in India it remained within the reserve bank’s target range.
Policy rates were similarly left unchanged by the central banks in
Indonesia (6.00%), South Africa (8.25%), and Russia (16.00%) to
effectively anchor inflation expectations.
The central banks of Brazil and Mexico lowered rates by 25 and 50
basis points, to 10.75 and 11.00 per cent, respectively, to stabilise
economic activities amidst continued disinflation. In contrast, the
Bank of Japan raised policy rate to between 0.00 and 0.10 per cent,
marking the end of eight years of negative interest rates. Turkey also
raised its policy rate by a cumulative 750 basis points, to 50.00 per
cent and hinted at further tightening if inflation remained unabated.
Table 4: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
United States

Canada

Euro Area

United Kingdom

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics.


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2.0 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2.1
Real Sector Developments
The Nigerian economy grew in Q12024, driven by improved
performances in both the oil and non-oil sectors. The continued
resilience of the economy highlighted the higher earnings from
crude oil sales (arising from improved domestic crude
production) and increased activities in stock and bond markets.
Inflation pressures intensified, buoyed by elevated energy and
input costs amidst prevailing security challenges.
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.98 per cent (yearon-year) in Q12024 relative to 3.46 per cent in Q42023. Despite
global and domestic shocks, growth remained positive following the
ongoing reforms of the Federal Government. The sustained
improvement in crude oil production, also boosted the performance
of the economy.
The oil sector expanded by 5.70 per cent in Q12024, albeit slower
than the 12.11 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. Despite this,
the sector contributed 0.35 percentage point to the country’s overall
growth. The improvement was driven by a marginal increase in
average crude oil production, which rose to 1.33 million barrels per
day (mbpd), from 1.31 mbpd in Q42023.
The non-oil sector expanded by 2.80 per cent in Q12024, a slight
deceleration from the 2.97 per cent growth in the previous quarter.
The performance was underpinned by robust expansions in key
segments,
including
financial
&
insurance,
information
&
communication, crop production, trade, and real estate.


Domestic Output
and Economic
Activities

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Figure 9: Real GDP Growth Rate (Year-on-Year)

Source: National Bureau of Statistic
2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
The services, agriculture and industry sectors all grew in Q12024. The
services sector continued to drive growth, contributing 2.47 percentage points
to the overall GDP growth. The sector grew by 4.32 per cent in Q12024,
compared with 3.98 per cent in Q42023. It also remained the most dominant
sector, accounting for 58.04 per cent of aggregate GDP.
Figure 10: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Within the services sector, the fastest growing sub-sectors are financial &
insurance (31.24%), information & communications (5.43%), trade (1.23%),


Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024
Percent (%)
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP


Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024
Per cent
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

18 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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and real estate (0.84%), which contributed 1.67, 0.95, 0.20, and 0.04
percentage points, respectively, to total sectoral outcome. Growth in the
financial & insurance sub-sector was spurred by increased activities in the
stock and bonds markets, as well as other investment vehicles. The
continued digital transformation within the finance sector, including the
proliferation of fintech companies, mobile banking, and digital payment
systems, also contributed to the growth in the sub-sector. The rising pace of
digitalisation equally supported growth in the ICT sub-sector as banks
sustained investment in IT security and fintech solutions. Moreso, continued
demand for digital services, such as internet services, and e-commerce
propelled the growth in the ICT sub-sector. Furthermore, increased consumer
spendings, as well as increased demand for residential and commercial
spaces owing to improved mortgage financing options were key drivers of
trade and real estate sub-sectors.
The agriculture sector grew by 0.18 per cent, compared with 2.10 per cent in
the preceding quarter. The growth, although, slower than the preceding
quarter was driven, majorly, by the continued support from both the fiscal and
monetary authorities (particularly, the 2.15 million tonnes of fertilisers
donated to farmers that boosted crop production during the review period).
Increased demand for wood products propped growth outcome in the forestry
sub-sector. Economic activity in the crop production and forestry sub-sectors
expanded by 1.71 and 2.73 per cent, respectively, compared with 2.44 and
1.69 per cent in Q42023. However, livestock and fishing sub-sectors
contracted by 23.29 and 1.44 per cent, compared with a 2.09 and 0.12 per
cent contractions recorded in the preceding quarter. The livestock and fishing
sub-sectors faced headwinds, as escalating feed costs for both fish and
livestock constrained their performances.
The Industrial sector remained, broadly, resilient despite price pressures, as
it maintained a positive trajectory with a growth of 2.19 per cent, compared
with 3.86 per cent in the previous quarter. This was underlined by the

19 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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continued expansion in the index of industrial production (IIP), which stood at
3.34 per cent (year-on-year) in Q12024 vis-à-vis 3.73 per cent in the
preceding quarter. The improvement in crude oil production, owing to better
surveillance of oil installations, also contributed to growth in the sector.
The realised growth in the industrial sector was further supported by the
operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery, which began the commercial
production, and supply of some refined petroleum products during the first
quarter. A breakdown of sub-sectoral performances indicated sizeable
outcomes in the mining & quarrying (6.30%), manufacturing (1.49%), and
water supply (6.95%) sub-sectors. Electricity supply and construction subsectors, however, recorded downturns in Q12024, with contractions of 5.43
and 2.14 per cent, respectively, as against positive growths of 6.17 and 3.70
per cent in the preceding quarter.
Out of the 22 sub-sectors in the economy, 16 sub-sectors expanded, while
six sub-sectors, including livestock, fishing, electricity supply, construction,
administrative services, and ‘other’ services, contracted in the review period.
Figure 11: Sub-sectors with Largest Contribution to GDP
Growth and their Growth Rates (per cent) in Q12024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Transportation and Storage (3.33)
Real Estate (0.84)
Manufacturing (1.49)
Trade (1.23)
Crop Production (1.71)
Mining and Quarrying (6.30)
Information and Communication (5.43)
Financial and Insurance (31.24)

20 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 12: Sub-sectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth
and their Growth Rates (per cent) in Q12024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.2 Economic & Business Activities
Industrial sector activity improved during the review quarter,
following expansions in mining and manufacturing sectors
(amidst inflation and exchange rate pressures). Mining sector
activity increased on account of a rise in crude oil and gas
production, following enhanced security of oil and gas infrastructure
in the Niger-Delta region.
Figure 13: Index of Industrial Production

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production
-0.09
-0.29
-0.58
Construction (-2.14)
Livestock (-23.29)
Other Services (-18.27)


Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
IIP [LHS]
IIP (yoy) [RHS]
IIP (QoQ) [RHS]
Industrial
Production

21 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
grew by 3.34 per cent in Q12024, compared with 3.73 per cent in the
preceding quarter, following strengthened mining sector activity and
resilient manufacturing sector performance. On a quarter-on-quarter
(q-o-q) basis, the IIP grew by 14.72 per cent from a negative of 1.50
per cent in Q42023.
Figure 14: Index of Manufacturing Production

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMANP refers to index of manufacturing production
The index of manufacturing production grew, both y-o-y and q-o-q,
by 1.51 and 8.15 per cent, respectively, from 1.37 and 5.01 per cent
in Q42023. This was attributed to the shifting preference of
consumers towards domestically produced goods, majorly in the
food, beverage & tobacco sub-sector, due to elevated cost of
imported goods. However, high interest rate burden and input costs
limited the ability of firms to significantly increase production.
Subsequently, the estimated average manufacturing capacity
utilisation increased by 0.8 percentage point to 56.7 per cent in
Q12024, compared with 55.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
Figure 15: Index of Mining Production

Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
IMANP [LHS]
IMANP (yoy)[RHS]%
IMANP (QoQ)[RHS]%
Manufacturing
Industrial
Production
Capacity
Utilisation

22 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMINP refers to the index of mining production
The index of mining production grew, on a y-o-y basis, by 6.14 per
cent, compared with 8.01 per cent in Q42023. On a q-o-q basis, it
grew by 35.96 per cent, in Q12024, compared with a contraction of
14.6 per in the proceeding quarter. This was attributed to increase in
crude oil & natural gas production, following enhanced security
measures to curtail the theft of petroleum products and safeguard oil
installations.
2.1.3 Inflation
Inflation pressures remained elevated in the first quarter of
2024, owing to the lingering effects of PMS subsidy removal on
energy and food prices, higher inflation expectations, and
security challenges. Headline inflation rose, on a y-o-y basis, to
33.20 per cent, compared with 28.92 per cent in Q42023, following
the increase in both food and core components of the CPI basket.

Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q12024
IMINP [LHS]
IMINP (YOY)[RHS]%
IMINP (QoQ)[RHS]%
Headline
Inflation
Mining

23 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 16: Headline, Food and Core Inflation (Year-on-Year)

Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau Statistics
Inflation remained largely broad-based across the components of the
CPI basket, although recent evidence indicated that it had become
less pervasive over the last 12 months. About 70.15 per cent of the
items in the CPI basket recorded price increases in March 2024, as
against 77.61 per cent of the items in March 2023. The March 2024
outcome, whilst above the historical average of 13.27 per cent (19962023), was an improvement from 71.64 per cent in February 2024.


Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024
Percent (%)
Headline
Core
Food

COVID-19
RussiaUkraine
PMS
subsidy
removal
, Rate
unificati
Inflation
Pervasiveness

24 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 17: Inflation Pervasiveness1

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria & National Bureau of Statistics
Core inflation increased to 25.90 per cent, on a y-o-y basis, from
23.06 per cent in the preceding quarter. The rise in core inflation was
due to increased costs of input amidst other persisting structural
factors, such as insecurity and infrastructural deficits. Furthermore,
inflation expectations and exchange rate depreciation reinforced the
rise in core inflation.
Figure 18: Measures of Underlying Inflation2


1 Pervasiveness is measured by the number of headline CPI items that are within specific inflation range. It reflects the extent to which rising prices
are affecting the cost of living. Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been high, with average inflation of 13.10 per cent from 1996–2023. Inflation is said
to be more pervasive if there is a higher number of items registering inflation above the historical average. The CPI items are therfore categorised
into four groups namely; percentage of items registering inflation of less than 4.99 per cent, between 5 per cent and 9.99 per cent, between 10 per
cent and 13.10 per cent, and also inflation above 13.10 per cent.
2 Core inflation: measure of underlying inflation defined as headline less farm produce less energy prices.
Trimmed Mean: measure of underlying inflation derived using the average rate of inflation after trimming away a certain percentage of
the distribution of price changes outliers at both ends of that distribution.
Trimmed Median: measure of underlying inflation derived by obtaining median values from inflation of CPI components.

Per cent
< 4.99%
5-9.99%
10-13.27%
> 13.27%
Monthly
Annual

Core inflation
Trimmed Median
Trimmed Mean
Core
Inflation

25 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Source: Central Bank of Nigeria & National Bureau of Statistics
While all measures of underlying inflation remained elevated, the
trend in trimmed mean and median rose at a slower pace than the
core inflation. In addition, it indicated that fewer components of the
inflation basket accounted for underlying inflationary pressure unlike
the core measure.
Figure 19: Component Drivers of Core Inflation

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Further analysis of the drivers of core inflation in Q12024 revealed
that fish & sea food contributed 3.84 percentage points (pp). Other
contributors are meat (3.46 pp), actual & imputed rentals for housing
(3.41 pp), oil & fats (2.43 pp), and clothing & footwear (2.08 pp).
Food inflation rose to 40.01 per cent, on a y-o-y basis in Q12024,
from 33.93 per cent in the preceding quarter. The upsurge in food
inflation was, largely, on account of the ripple effects of PMS subsidy
removal that prompted high transportation/logistics costs and pulledup the prices of essential food items. Prices of some staple food
crops were also affected by seasonality, thereby contributing to the
rise in food inflation.

Q12021
Q22021
Q32021
Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022
Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Per cent
Meat
Fish & Sea Food
Milk,Cheese & Eggs
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
BREAD UNSLICED 500g
CABIN BISCUIT: LOCAL MANUFACTURE 800g PACK
CASSAVA FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
CORN FLAKES 350g
CORN FLOUR 2kg
CUSTARD 300g
EKO(AGIDI/KAFA)
FRITTERS (PUFF-PUFF)
GARI WHITE,SOLD LOOSE
GARI YELLOW,SOLD LOOSE
GUINEA CORN FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
MAIZE PASTE-WHITE(OGI/AKAMU)
PLANTAIN FLOUR
POP CORN
SAUSAGE BEEF (GALA)
SEMOVITA 2kg
YAM FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Alcoholic Bev. Tobacco & Kola
Clothing & footwear
Actual and imputed rentals for housing
Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling
Furnishings, Household Equip &HH Maint.
Health
Motor cars
Motor cycles
Bicycles
Vehicle Spare Parts
Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment
Other services in respect of personal transport equipment
Passenger transport by road
Passenger transport by air
Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway
Communication
Recreation & culture
Education
Restaurant & Hotels
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
Core Inflation
Food
Inflation

26 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 20: Contribution of Processed food and Farm produce
to Food Inflation

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of contribution to food inflation, the processed food
component continued to dominate. This was due to the persisting
high energy cost, driven by elevated price of diesel, which
exacerbated the cost of production. Further analysis showed that
garri, at 8.30 percentage points (pp); meat, fish & egg (6.82 pp); yam,
potatoes & other tubers (4.89 pp); rice (4.35 pp); fruits & vegetables
(3.22 pp); and oil & fats (2.14 pp) were the major drivers of food
inflation in Q12024.
Figure 21: Component Drivers of Food Inflation


Source: National Bureau of Statistics

PER CENT
Processed food
Farm produce
Food Inflation

Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024
Per cent
Meat, Fish & Egg
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
Bread, Biscuit & Sausage
Cassava Flour, Sold Loose
Processed Corn
Garri
Flours
Fruits & Vegatables
Yam, Potatoes & other tubers
Maize Grain White Sold Loose
Millet (Jero or Maiwa) Sold Loose
Rice (Local & Imported)
Sorghum (Guinea Corn) White or Brown,Sold Loose

27 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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2.1.4 Socio-Economic Developments
Prospects for transportation efficiency were boosted with the official
commissioning of the 37km red line Lagos mass rail transit (LMRT)
project. Similarly, the Federal Government approved the funding of
30km dualisation of three sections of the Benin- Lokoja federal
highway, under the Tax Credit Scheme by the BUA Group.
The aviation sector was further boosted, as an indigenous airline,
Air Peace, launched a direct flight operation from Lagos to London
during the review period. This would further stimulate growth in the
sector through enhanced competitiveness in the aviation industry in
Nigeria.
To bolster human capital developments in the health and social
welfare sectors, the Federal Government of Nigeria approved the
conversion of the Federal College of Dental Technology and
Therapy in Enugu to a full-fledged University of Allied Health
Sciences. This would support government plans to train 120,000
frontline health-workers nationwide and double the number of
primary health facilities in local communities across all local
government areas from 8,800 to over 17,000 in the next three years.
In the review period, the Senate passed the National Youth Service
Corps (NYSC) Trust Fund Bill to empower corps members pursue
various initiatives, including business ventures and community
development projects. The Bill will provide a sustainable source of
funds for the NYSC and support skills acquisition programmes for
corps members, equipping them with practical skills that can
enhance their employability and entrepreneurial abilities.

Transportation
Education / Health
Empowerment

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Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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2.1.5 Energy Sector and Electricity
2.1.5.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Developments
Domestic crude oil production rose marginally (quarter-onquarter) due to enhanced security measures in the oilproducing areas.
Nigeria’s average crude oil production rose by 1.53 per cent to 1.33
mbpd in Q12024, compared with 1.31 mbpd in the preceding quarter.
Crude oil production increased in the Forcados and Bonny, QuaIboe, Escravos and Brass streams following enhanced security
measures in the Niger-Delta region. The production level in Q12024
was, however, 248,000 bpd lower than the OPEC quota of 1.58
mbpd.
Energy sector output weakened due to decreased water supply
to hydro substations, reduced gas supply, and vandalism of
some electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Analysis of the index of electricity production (IEP) indicated that
electricity production contracted by 46.04 per cent (q-o-q) in Q12024,
as against an increase of 31.47 per cent in Q42023. On a y-o-y basis,
IEP increased marginally by 1.22 per cent in the review period,
compared with 6.47 per cent in Q42023


Crude Oil
Production and
Export
Index of Electricity
production

29 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 22: Index of Electricity Production

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production
The average estimated electricity generation in Q12024 at 3,856.5
MW/h, decreased by 6.13 per cent, relative to 4,106.3MW/h in
Q42023. Likewise, the average estimated electricity consumption at
3,750.4 MW/h, decreased by 3.96 per cent in Q12024, compared
with 3,903.4MW/h in the preceding quarter.


Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
IEP
IEP (YOY)[RHS]%
IEP (QoQ)[RHS]%
Electricity
Generation /
Consumption

30 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Box Information 1☹)
Prices of all the monitored domestic agricultural commodities maintained an upward trend in the
first quarter of 2024. The price increases ranged from 10.37 per cent for Maize grain white to 70.77
per cent for onion bulbs. The factors which contributed to the increase included, high energy cost
(PMS and diesel), security challenges especially in major food producing areas, as well as low
supply during the off-season.

Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Q1 2024


2023Q1
2023Q4
2024Q1
%
Change
%
Change

UNIT

(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)
Agric eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye, sold loose
"

Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality, sold
loose
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Wheat flour: prepackaged (Golden
Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Nigeria Staff
estimates


31 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
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2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Provisional data showed that fiscal operations improved in Q12024.
Federally collected revenue was 14.55 per cent above the proceeds
in the preceding quarter, but 45.81 per cent less than the benchmark.
Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) retained revenue and
expenditure were 14.06 and 25.45 per cent beneath the levels in
Q42023, respectively, as fiscal deficit reduced by 31.30 per cent.
Public debt, at N97,340.71 billion (or 41.52% of GDP), surpassed the
40.00 per cent benchmark as at end-December 2023.
2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Gross Federation Account earnings improved in Q12024,
compared with the preceding quarter, on account of higher
receipts from both oil and non-oil sources. At N4,876.70 billion,
provisional gross Federation Account receipt exceeded the level in
Q42023 by 14.55 per cent but trailed the benchmark by 45.81 per
cent. The higher receipt during the review period reflected higher
revenues from crude oil & gas exports, petroleum profit tax (PPT),
royalties, corporate tax, customs & excise duties, and value-added
tax (VAT). With respect to the composition of gross federation
revenue, non-oil revenue continued to dominate, accounting for
68.61 per cent, while oil revenue made up the balance.
Higher dividends payment by the Nigerian National Petroleum
Company Limited (NNPCL), upstream CIT, crude oil & gas exports,
PPT, and royalties receipts led to increase in oil revenue to
N1,530.91 billion in Q12024, 39.53 per cent above the level in
Q42023.3 Oil revenue was, however, below the target by 71.12 per
cent.

3 Based on Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021), companies income tax (CIT) now
applies to upstream crude oil production operations.

Summary
Federation
Revenue

32 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
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Non-oil revenue, at N3,345.79 billion, was 5.88 per cent above the
level in the preceding quarter, but 9.54 per cent below target. The
improvement was driven by higher collections from corporate tax,
customs & excise duties, and VAT.
Figure 23: Gross Revenue and Benchmark (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
(FMF)
After accounting for deductions and additional revenue from nonstable sources, a net balance of N3,429.98 billion was distributed
among the three tiers of government.4 Of the amount, the Federal,
State and Local governments received N1,143.55 billion, N1,143.05
billion and N834.12 billion, respectively. The balance of N309.26
billion was allocated to the 13% Derivation Fund for oil-producing
states. The disbursement in Q12024 was 18.31 per cent above the
level in Q42023, but 50.49 per cent short of the target.


4 Non-stable sources include exchange gain, non-oil excess revenue, and
excess crude revenue.

Q42023
Q12024
Budegt
Oil
Non-oil
Gross Revenue

33 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Table 5: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the
Three-Tiers of Government (₦ Billion)

Q12023
Q42023 1/
Q12024 1/
Budget*
Federation Revenue (Gross)

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Non-Regular Earnings/EMTL

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers***

1,383.13

2,211.10

2,669.87

2,115.51
Federally Collected Revenue

2,153.99

2,046.16

2,206.83

6,884.51
Less Deductions & Transfers
plus:


Additional Revenue

309.05

853.06

1,223.15

43.56
Balance in Special Account from


Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

2,463.04

2,899.22

3,429.98

6,928.07
Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Source: : Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Federal Ministry of Finance,
and CBN Staff Estimates.
Note: *Budget is based on 2024 appropriation Act, ** Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation
Account), National Information Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other
Mining revenue, and other non-regular earnings; *** Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash
calls; while transfers entail provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue. /1 Figures are
Provisional

34 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
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2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government
Provisional data indicated that FGN retained revenue fell,
largely, on account of lower receipts from FGN Independent
Revenue. At N1,445.67 billion, FGN retained revenue was below the
amount collected in Q42023, and the target by 14.06 and 70.49 per
cent, respectively.
Table 6: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion)

Q12023
Q42023*
Q12024*
Budget
FGN Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Oil Revenue

Excess non-oil

Exchange Gain

Others**

Source: Data from: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF)
Note: *The figures are provisional
** Others include revenue from Special Accounts and Special Levies.
Provisional aggregate expenditure of the FGN dropped, owing,
largely, to lower capital outlay. At N3,691.46 billion, expenditure
in Q12024 was short of the level in the preceding quarter and the
target by 25.45 and 48.69 per cent, respectively. In terms of
composition, recurrent expenditure, at 84.30 per cent, continued to
dominate FGN spending, compared with the shares of 6.37 and 9.33
per cent for capital outlay and transfers, respectively.

Federal
Government
Retained Revenue
Federal
Government
Expenditure

35 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
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Figure 24: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion)

Source: CBN Staff Estimates and OAGF
The fiscal operations of the FGN in Q12024 resulted in a
narrower fiscal deficit. The provisional fiscal deficit of the FGN, at
N2,245.79 billion, was 31.30 and 2.13 per cent lower than the level
in Q42023 and the target, respectively. The reduced deficit reflected
the faster decline in expenditure, relative to revenue.
Public debt stock in Q42023 was 41.52 per cent of GDP, which
exceeded the 40.00 per cent national threshold. Total public debt
outstanding stood at N97,340.71 billion (or 41.52% of GDP), at endDecember 2023, and was 10.73 per cent, higher than the levels at
end-September 2023. A breakdown of the consolidated public debt
showed that, domestic debt accounted for 60.74 per cent, while
external debt obligations constituted 39.26 per cent. Of the
consolidated public debt stock, FGN owed N91,477.86 billion
(93.98%),5 while State governments accounted for the balance
(N5,862.85 billion or 6.02%).
A disaggregation of the FGN debt obligations showed that domestic
debt was N53,258.01 billion (58.22%), while external debt
constituted N38,219.85 billion (41.78%). Further analysis revealed

5 Includes the external debt of State governments, which are contingent liabilities of the Federal
government.


Q12023
Q42023
Q12024
Budget
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Transfers
Aggregate Expenditure
Overall Fiscal
Balance
Federal
Government Debt

36 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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that FGN Bonds maintained its dominance, with 83.11 per cent of
the total domestic debt stock, followed by Treasury Bills (12.25%),
Promissory Notes (2.50%), and FGN Sukuk (2.05%), while others6
(0.10%) constituted the balance. Of the total external debt stock,
multilateral, commercial and bilateral loans accounted for 49.77,
36.21, and 14.02 per cent, respectively.
Table 7: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion)

Q12023
Q42023*
Q12024*
Budget
Retained revenue

Aggregate expenditure

Recurrent

Non-debt

Debt Service

Capital

Transfers

Primary balance

Overall balance

Source: Data from: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) and CBN Staff Estimates
Note: * provisional

Debt service obligations in Q42023 fell marginally by 0.44 per cent
to N2,848.88 billion, from N2,861.61 billion in Q32023. The decrease
was attributed to fewer maturing bilateral and commercial
obligations, relative to the preceding quarter. A breakdown showed
that domestic debt service was N2,000.60 billion (70.22%), while
external debt service constituted N848.28 billion (29.78%).

6 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.03%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).

37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 25: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition
(₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office
Figure 26: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office


Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023
External Debt
Domestic Debt
Total
FGN Bonds,
83.11%
Treasury Bills,
12.25%
Promisory Notes , ...
FGN SUKUK,
2.05%
Others , 0.10%
FGN Bonds
Treasury Bills
Promisory Notes
FGN SUKUK
Others

38 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 27: Composition of External Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office


Multilateral ,
49.77%
Commercial ,
36.21%
Bilateral,
14.02%
Multilateral
Commercial
Bilateral

39 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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2.3
Monetary and Financial Developments
The Bank maintained a restrictive policy stance, raising the MPR by
a cumulative 600 basis points to 24.75 per cent during the review
period, and the CRR to 45.00 per cent from 32.5 per cent.
Nonetheless, key monetary aggregates grew relative to the levels in
the preceding quarter, driven by the revaluation effect of the
exchange rate on net foreign asset. Higher interest rates stimulated
investor appetite for domestic securities, fuelling increased
subscriptions for the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and FGN bonds
in the review quarter. The banking sector remained resilient, as
financial soundness indicators were largely within regulatory
thresholds.

2.3.1 Monetary Developments
Reserve money fell at end-March 2024, on account of a decline
in liabilities to other depository corporations (ODCs). Relative to
the level at end-December 2023, reserve money declined by 5.46
per cent to N23,384.82 billion at end-March 2024. The fall in reserve
money was driven by the 7.43 per cent decline in liabilities to ODCs
arising from a decrease in their required reserves, following the
Bank’s contractionary monetary policy stance. The stock of reserve
money was below the benchmark of N28,274.79 billion for 2024.
Reserve Money
Summary

40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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Figure 28: Developments in Reserve Money and Money
Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Figure 29: Reserve Money Growth Over end-December 2023

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
The volume of eNaira as a component of currency in circulation (CIC)
was N13.98 billion at end-March 2024, same as in the preceding
quarter. In terms of the composition of total CIC, eNaira was 0.4 per
cent, while banknotes and coins constituted the dominant share at
99.6 per cent.

Mar 23
Jun 23
Sep 23
Dec 23
Mar 24
Ratio
₦ Billion
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)

Feb-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar 24
Per cent (%)
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money

41 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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Figure 30: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation (₦ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
The relationship between reserve money and broad money supply
(M3) indicated a rise in the money multiplier to 3.95 at end-March
2024 from 3.2 in the preceding period. This followed the observed
16.52 per cent expansion (over preceding December) of M3 to
N92,343.29 billion during the review period. From the asset side,
growth in M3 was driven by the substantial increase in net foreign
assets (NFA), which contributed 33.37 percentage points to broad
money growth. The growth in NFA reflected the 57.55 per cent
expansion in claims on non-residents as the exchange rate
revaluation impacted official reserve assets. Net domestic assets
(NDA), however, fell by 19.10 per cent reflecting the 41.61 per cent
decline in net claims on central government, which outweighed the
growth in claims on other sectors (13.87%).
On the liability side, the growth in M3 was driven by the increases in
currency outside depository corporations (5.64%), transferable
deposits (8.15%), and other deposits (22.86%). Securities other than
shares declined significantly by 97.47 per cent. In terms of relative
contribution, ‘other deposits’ led with 14.05 percentage points (pp).
This was followed by transferable deposits (2.74 pp), currency

Mar 23
Jun 23
Sep 23
Dec 23
Mar 24
Naira & Coins
eNaira
Total
Money Supply

42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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outside depository corporations (0.24 pp), and securities other than
shares (-0.52 pp). The growth in ‘other deposits’ was attributed to the
rise in foreign currency deposits as a result of the exchange rate
revaluation.
Table 8: Money and Credit Growth Over Preceding December
(per cent)

Mar-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Contribution
to M3 growth
(Mar-24)
2024 Benchmark
Net
Foreign
Assets


Claims on Nonresidents


Liabilities to Nonresidents


Net
Domestic
Assets

Domestic
Claims


Net Claims on
Central
Government

Claims on Central
Government


Liabilities
to
Central
Government


Claims on Other
Sectors

Claims on Other
Financial
Corporations


Claims on State
and
Local
Government


Claims on Public
Nonfinancial
Corporations


Claims on Private
Sector


Total
Monetary
Assets (M3)

4.68

28.28

51.86

16.52
16.52
15.60
Currency Outside
Depository
Corporations


Transferable
Deposits


Narrow
Money
(M1)


Other Deposits


Broad
Money
(M2)

Securities
Other
than Shares


Total
Monetary
Liabilities(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

43 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
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2.3.2 Sectoral Utilisation of Credit
Total sectoral credit increased by 19.50 per cent to N53,221.14
billion at end-March 2024, from N44,536.13 billion at end-December
2023. This reflected 14.45 per cent rise in loans to agriculture, 19.73
per cent to industry, and 19.80 per cent to the services sectors. A
breakdown indicated that the services sector accounted for 52.9 per
cent of total loans, while the industry and agriculture sectors received
42.3 and 4.9 per cent, respectively.
Table 9: Sectoral Credit Allocation
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Consumer credit outstanding grew by 268.9 per cent to N8,240.36
billion at end-March 2024, relative to the level at end-December
2023. The substantial growth in consumer credit was attributable to
inflation expectations. A disaggregation of consumer credit showed
that personal loans increased by 270.4 per cent to N7,519.2 billion,
while retail loans increased by 253.4 per cent to N721.13 billion.
Personal loans remained the principal component of consumer
credit, with a 91.2 per cent share, while retail loans accounted for the
SECTORS
Allocation (₦ Billion)
Share in Total (%)
Growth
(%)
Mar-23
(1)
Dec-23
(2)
Mar-24
(3)
Mar-

(4)
Dec-23
(5)
Mar-24
(6)
(3) & (2)
[a] Agriculture
1,887.95

2,255.36

2,581.33
6.22

5.07

4.85
14.45
[b] Industry
12,334.84

18,781.93

22,488.13
40.65

42.17

42.25
19.73
Manufacturing


[c] Services

16,123.34

23,498.84

28,151.67

52.84

53.13

52.90

19.80

Finance, Insurance &
Capital Market
2,639.25


4,327.86


3,412.69
8.96


8.70


6.41
(21.15)

Trade & General
Commerce

2,333.42

3,548.74

3,798.63

7.52

7.69

7.14

7.04

TOTAL
30,346.13

44,536.13


Consumer
Credit
Sectoral Credit
Utilisation


44 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q12024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FIRST QUARTER 2024
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balance. As a proportion of total sectoral credit, consumer credit
increased to 15.5 per cent, from 7.7 per cent at end-December 2023.
Figure 31: Consumer Credit Outstanding

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Figure 32: Composition of Consumer Credit

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Dec-22
Mar- 23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
₦'Billion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total

Mar- 23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Personal loan
Retail loan

45 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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2.3.3 Financial Developments
2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments
Banking system liquidity increased, compared with the level in
the preceding quarter. Average banking system liquidity increased
by 17.52 per cent to N292.31 billion, reflecting the 18.31 per cent rise
in FAAC distribution during the quarter. Despite the relative increase
in liquidity, transactions at the standing lending facility (SLF) stood
at N31,399.79 billion, with average daily request of N1,319.72 billion,
while placement at the standing deposit facility (SDF) stood at
N1,695.04 billion, with a daily average of N26.91 billion. Applicable
rate for the SLF ranged from 19.75 to 25.75 per cent relative to 19.75
per cent in the preceding period. The range for the SDF was 15.75
– 21.75 per cent compared with 15.75 per cent that was applicable
in Q42023. The applicable rates for the SLF and the SDF during the
review period reflected the adjustments of the asymmetric corridor
(from +100/-300 around an MPR of 18.75 per cent in January), first,
to +100/-700 around an MPR of 22.75 per cent in February, and then
reversed in March to +100/-300 around an MPR of 24.75 per cent.
Figure 33: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q1 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
₦ Billion
Standing Lending Facility
Standing Deposit Facility
Industry Liquidity
Condition

46 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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Patronage of NTBs and FGN bonds increased significantly due
to higher yields during the review quarter. NTBs worth ₦2,214.59
billion, ₦12,224.37 billion, and ₦5,546.61 billion were offered,
subscribed, and allotted, respectively, in the review quarter, relative
to ₦851.48 billion, ₦7,439.02 billion, and ₦2,650.77 billion in
Q42023. Analysis showed that 90.57 per cent of total subscription
was for the 364-day NTBs, 3.80 per cent for the 182-day NTBs and
5.63 per cent for the 91-day NTBs.

Figure 34: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The volume of transactions at the FGN bonds segment increased in
the review quarter relative to the preceding quarter. Total amount
offered, subscribed, and allotted were N3,310.00 billion, N2,388.77
billion and N1,163.98 billion, compared with N1,080.00 billion,
N1,714.82 billion and N1,042.89 billion, respectively, in Q42023. The
bid and marginal rates stood at 20.50 (±9.50) per cent and 17.73
(±2.73) per cent, compared with 17.00 (±3.00) per cent and 16.45
(±1.55) per cent, respectively, in the preceding quarter.

10000
12000
14000
Q1 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024

₦'Billion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Primary Market

47 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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Figure 35: Primary Market Auctions of FGN Bonds (₦ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Short-term interest rates moved in tandem with the hikes in
policy rate during the review period. The average interbank call
and open buy back (OBB) rates rose by 6.09 and 8.16 percentage
points to 21.21 and 22.01 per cent, from 15.12 and 13.85 per cent in
Q42023, respectively. The Nigeria Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR)
call rate increased by 7.97 percentage points to 22.16 per cent from
14.19 per cent, while the NIBOR-30 rose to 18.18 per cent from
14.96 per cent.

Q1 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024


₦' Billion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Interest Rate
Development

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Figure 36: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The trajectories of key lending rates were diverse during the
review quarter. The prime lending rate increased by 0.61
percentage point to 14.86 per cent, relative to the level in the
preceding quarter, while the maximum lending rate declined by 0.63
percentage point to 27.67 per cent. Deposits rates, however,
increased broadly in the review quarter. Weighted average term
deposit (WATD) rate rose by 1.19 percentage points to 8.36 per cent
from 7.17 per cent a quarter earlier. Consequently, the spread
between the WATD and maximum lending rates narrowed to 19.31
percentage points from 21.13 percentage points in the preceding
quarter.

Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Per cent (%)
Inter-bank call
OBB
NIBOR call
NIBOR 30-Day
Upper corridor
Lower corridor

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Figure 37: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate.

2.3.3.2
Capital Market Developments
The performance of the Nigerian capital market improved in the
review period, on the release of an impressive Q42023 and fullyear 2023 corporate earnings results. The aggregate market
capitalisation and its components increased by 24.46 per cent to
N93,590.66 billion, compared with N75,196.53 billion recorded in
Q42023. Further analysis showed that the Exchange Traded Funds
(ETF) recorded the most impressive performance followed by the
equities and debt components. However, the equities component
sustained its dominance in terms of contribution to the aggregate
market capitalisation.
The ETF segment grew by 84.54 per cent to N42.48 billion, while the
equities and debt components of the market appreciated by 44.51,
and 0.47 per cent, respectively, to N59,129.00 billion and
N34,419.18 billion. The equities component constituted 63.19 per
cent, with debt and ETF constituting the balance.

Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Percentage points
Per cent (%)
PLR
MLR
WATD
SPREAD (RHS)
Market
Capitalisation

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The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) grew by 39.84
per cent to 104,562.06 index points, from 74,773.77 index points in
the preceding quarter. The performance of the NGX-ASI was
occasioned by buying interests in bellwether stocks and other stocks
with strong fundamentals, arising from the impressive 2023
corporate earnings results, as well as new listings in Q12024.
Figure 38: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share
Index
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

The sectoral indices of the capital market were bullish in the review
quarter, except for NGX- Sovereign Bond and NGX-Growth that
trended downward, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter.
There was an uptick in trading activities on the Exchange, as the
value of traded securities rose by 79.69 per cent to N778.12 billion,
from N433.03 billion in the preceding quarter. The volume of traded
securities increased by 34.38 per cent to 35.96 billion shares, from
26.76 billion shares in Q42023. Total number of deals conducted on
the Exchange during the review quarter rose by 70.32 per cent to
709,076 from 416,324 deals in the preceding quarter.


Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024
Index Points
N' Billion
Aggregate Market Cap (LHS)
All Share Index (RHS)
NGX All-
Share Index

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Table 10: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indices
2023 Q4
2024 Q1
Change (%)
NGX-AseM
639.55
1,504.55
135.25
NGX-Industrial Goods
2,712.27
4,841.20

78.49
NGX-Afri Div Yield
7,423.65
11,006.66
48.26
NGX-Consumer Goods
1,121.29
1,610.80
43.66
NGX-Premium
7,227.22
10293.26
42.42
NGX-30
2,790.28
3,880.71
39.08
NGX-Pension Board
1,308.54
1,812.28
38.50
NGX-Main Board
3,461.22
4,786.10
38.28
NGX-Lotus II
4,619.73
6,338.19
37.20
NGX-Insurance
321.66
405.94
26.20
NGX-Oil & Gas
1,043.06
1,294.38
24.09
NGX-Pension
3,241.03
3,934.33
21.39
NGX-Meri Value
5,194.34
6,171.88
18.82
NGX-CG
2,209.04
2,551.71
15.51
NGX-Banking
897.2
1,029.63
14.76
NGX-Afri Bank Value
2,075.50
2,277.89
9.75
NGX-Meri Growth
4,547.40
4,928.31
8.38
NGX-Sovereign Bond
759.75
730.8
-3.81
NGX-Growth
6,299.16
5,703.31
-9.
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Figure 39: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Billions of Shares
N' Billion
Value of Traded Securities (LHS)
Volume of Traded Securities (RHS)

52 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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There were 13 new listings, eight supplementary listings, one
delisting, one suspension, and one migration on the Exchange in the
review quarter. The listings comprised of savings bonds, ordinary
shares, rights issues, and futures contracts.

Participation in the Equities Market
Investments in equities, by domestic and foreign participants, grew
by 78.85 per cent to N1,547.94 billion over the preceding quarter.
Analysis of the market revealed that investments by domestic
participants, at N1,334.76 billion, accounted for 86.2 per cent of the
total, while the N213.18 billion investment by foreign participants
constituted the balance.


53 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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Table 11: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the
Nigerian Exchange Limited in Q12024
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
New/Supplementary/
Suspensions/Delisting
Royal Exchange Plc
4,116,296,059 ordinary shares of
N50 kobo each at N50 kobo per
share
Rights Issue
New
Sovereign
Trust
Insurance Plc
2,863,673,469 ordinary shares of
N50 kobo each at N50 kobo Per
Share
Rights Issue
Supplementary
Glaxo
SmithKline
Consumer Nigeria Plc

Court
Order
stopping
further
trading
of
the
shares
Suspension of trading
FGN Bonds 11.033%
FGN
JAN 2026
603,421 Units
FGN Bond
New
FGN Bonds 12.033%
FGN
JAN 2027
1,394,296 Units
FGN Bond
New
Ellah Lakes Plc
753,786,788 ordinary shares of
N50 kobo each at N2.90 kobo per
share.
Rights Issue
Supplementary
12.751% FGNSB FEB

841,917
units
amounting
to
N841,917,000.00
FGN Bond
New
13.751% FGNSB FEB

1,588,658 units totalling to
N1,588,658,000.00
FGN Bond
New
11.033% FGNSB JAN

603,421 units amounting to
N603,421,000.00
FGN Bond
New
12.033% FGNSB JAN

1,394,296 units amounting to
N1,394,296,000
FGN Bond
New
Glaxo SmithKline
Consumer Nigeria Plc
Delisting
Following
application from
the company
Delisting
Ellah Lakes Plc
Additional 753,786,788 ordinary
shares of 50 Kobo each per
share
FGN Bond
Supplementary
Chapel Hill Denham
Management Limited
Additional listing of 106,350,000
units of N100 each per share at
N108.89 each.
Rights Issue
Supplementary
16.2884% FGN MAR

Additional 86,187,000 units
FGN Bond
Supplementary
14.55% FGN APR

Additional 21,939,000 units
FGN Bond
Supplementary
14.70% FGN JUN

Additional 43,346,000 units
FGN Bond
Supplementary
15.45% FGN JUN

Additional 266,725,000 units
FGN Bond
Supplementary
12.751% FGNSB
FEB 2026
841,917 units
FGN Bond
New
13.751% FGNSB
FEB 2027
1,588,658 units
FGN Bond
New
Transcorp Power
Plc
7,500,000,000 ordinary
Shares of 50 Kobo each at
N240.00
Rights Issue
New
NGX30U4
Futures contract at
N3,954.50
Futures
New
NGXPENSIONU4
Futures contract at
N3,789.75
Futures
New
18.50% FGN FEB

873,527,020,000
FGN Bond
New
Nigeria Energy
Sector Fund
(NESF)
745,950 units at N552.20
restructuring and migration
of (NESF)
Migration to SCM
Capital Ethical
Fund.
Migration
Source: Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
Notes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not
available.


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2.3.3.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
The banking industry remained relatively resilient in the review
quarter as the key financial soundness indicators weakened
slightly but stayed broadly within the industry regulatory
thresholds. Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) dropped by 2.08
percentage points to 11.05 per cent in Q12024, due to an increment
in risk weighted assets over total qualifying capital. The ratio
surpassed the 10.00 per cent benchmark for banks with
national/regional authorisation, but fell below the 15.00 per cent
threshold for banks with international authorisation.
The banks’ asset quality, measured by the ratio of non-performing
loans to total loans and advances, (NPL ratio) increased by 0.98
percentage point to 5.05 per cent in Q12024, relative to the 4.07 per
cent recorded at the end of the preceding quarter. The ratio was
marginally above the prudential benchmark of 5.00 per cent.
The industry Liquidity Ratio (LR) declined by 1.91 percentage points
to 42.07 per cent in the review quarter, relative to the 43.98 per cent
recorded in the preceding quarter. The LR remained above the
minimum regulatory benchmark of 30.00 per cent, showing the
liquidity sufficiency of the banks and their ability to meet up with their
obligations.


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2.4
External Sector Developments
The performance of the external sector in Q12024 was driven by
improvement in global economic conditions, and the increase
in the domestic production of crude oil. The current account
maintained a surplus position, reflecting sustained trade
surplus. In the financial account, a net reduction in financial
liabilities was recorded in Q12024, driven by repayment of
short-term loan liabilities. The international investment position
posted a lower net financial liability of US$67.24 billion
compared with US$86.26 billion in the preceding quarter. At
US$32.29 billion at end-March 2024, the external reserves could
cover 7.1 months of import for goods and services or 10.1
months of import for goods only. The average exchange rate of
the naira per US dollar at the Nigerian foreign exchange market
depreciated by 35.53 per cent to ₦1,304.72/US$, from
₦841.15/US$ in Q42023.

2.4.1 Current and Capital Account
The surplus in the current account decline, due to a higher
deficit in the primary income account in the review quarter. The
current account posted a lower surplus of US$2.66 billion (5.82% of
GDP) in Q12024, compared with US$3.35 billion (4.16% of GDP) in
the preceding quarter. The reduced surplus was largely due to a
higher deficit in the primary income account.

Summary

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Figure 40: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Merchandise export earnings declined slightly in Q12024,
primarily due to lower crude oil receipts. Aggregate export
earnings declined by 4.89 per cent to US$14.19 billion in Q12024,
from US$14.92 billion in Q4 2023. A breakdown reveals that oil
receipts fell to US$12.42 billion from US$13.41 billion in the
preceding quarter. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the
average price of crude oil, to US$85.58 per barrel from US$86.97
per barrel. Despite this, domestic crude oil production increased to
1.33 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.31 mbpd.
Non-oil export receipts rose to US$1.77 billion, from US$1.51 billion
in the preceding quarter, attributed to higher electricity export and
other non-oil export receipts. Crude oil and gas export continued to
dominate, constituting 87.53 per cent of the total export, while nonoil export accounted for the balance.

Importation of both oil and non-oil products declined in Q12024.
Total merchandise import fell by 9.38 per cent to US$9.56 billion,
from US$10.55 billion. The importation of oil products decreased to
US$2.98 billion, from US$3.73 billion in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, non-oil import declined to US$6.57 billion, from US$6.83

Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024

US$ Billion
Export
Performance
Merchandise
Import

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billion in the preceding quarter, driven by reduced demand for foreign
tradables. Analysis by share showed that non-oil import accounted
for 68.72 per cent of the total, while oil import constituted the
balance.
A breakdown of import by classification revealed that the industrial
sector, mainly raw materials and machinery accounted for the largest
share at 48.52 per cent. Other contributors were food products
(17.24%), manufactured products (14.86%), oil sector (13.06%),
minerals (3.16%), transport (2.27%), and agricultural products
(0.89%).

Figure 41: Import by Classification

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The deficit in the services account narrowed, owing to reduced
payments for travels and financial services. The deficit
decreased by 10.48 per cent to US$3.16 billion, from US$3.53 billion
in Q42023. Total payment for services declined by 11.16 per cent to
US$4.14 billion, relative to the preceding quarter. A breakdown of
services indicated that payments for travels was the major driver with
9.48 per cent decline to US$1.05 billion. Other notable components
that declined were financial to US$0.16 billion (77.46%),
telecommunications to US$0.12 billion (20.00%), and insurance &
Industrial sector
48.52%
Manufactured
Products
14.86%
Food Products
17.24%
Oil sector
13.06%
Minerals
3.16%
Transport
2.27%
Agricultural
Products
0.89%
Services

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pension services to US$0.12 billion (20.00%). There were also
declines in personal, cultural & recreation to US$0.02 billion
(60.00%) and construction to US$0.01 billion (97.50%). Payments
for transportation, however, increased to US$1.78 billion (15.58%)
and government goods services to US$0.11 billion (10.00%).
In terms of share, transportation constituted 43.00 per cent, followed
by travels at 25.36 per cent, and ‘other business services’ at 17.15
per cent. Other shares were Insurance & pension (2.90%), financial
services (2.86%), telecommunications (2.66%), and government
services (2.42%). Other categories of services accounted for the
balance.

Figure 42: Share of Services Out-Payments (per cent)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from services decreased by 13.39 per cent, to US$0.97
billion, driven mainly by lower receipts from financial, travel, and
insurance & pensions services. Financial services receipts
decreased by 54.55 per cent to US$0.15 billion, travel services
declined by 33.33 per cent to US$0.03 billion, while insurance &
pension services fell by 24.55 per cent to US$0.02 billion.
Transport services receipts, however, increased to US$0.53 billion,
from US$0.47 billion in Q42023, attributed to higher freight receipts
Transportatio
n, 43.00
Travels,
25.36
Other
business
services,
17.15
Insurance and
pension,
2.90
Financial
services,
2.86
Telecommunica
tion, 2.66
Government
goods and
services,
2.42

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in sea transportation services. Similarly, government services rose
to US$0.13 billion from US$0.12 billion in the preceding quarter.
Receipts from telecommunication services also increased by 33.33
per cent to US$0.04 billion.
In terms of share, receipts from transportation services stood at
54.63 per cent, and financial services at 15.46 per cent. Others were
travels (8.24%), government goods & services (13.40%), and
telecommunication services (4.12%). Other services accounted for
the balance.

Figure 43: Share of Services Receipts

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The deficit in the primary income account widened, due to
higher investment income payments. The deficit increased by
41.18 per cent to US$4.56 billion from US$3.23 billion in Q42023.
The development was, majorly, driven by a 29.64 per cent rise in
investment income payments, particularly in direct investment. A
disaggregation showed a higher deficit of US$4.62 billion in the
investment income sub-account, relative to US$3.29 billion in
Q42023, on account of higher income payments on equity and
investment fund shares. Compensation of employees account,
Transportation
54.63%
Travels
8.24%
Financial
15.46%
Telecommunication
4.12%
Government goods
and services
13.40%
Others
4.15
%
Primary Income

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however, showed a surplus position of US$0.01 billion, which was
6.23 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter.

Figure 44: Primary Income Balance

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The Secondary income account maintained a surplus position
in Q12024. The surplus increased slightly to US$5.77 billion from
US$5.74 billion in Q42023. The development was attributed to a
higher inflow of private sector transfers, particularly workers’
remittances, which rose to US$5.14 billion from US$4.90 billion in
Q42023. General government transfers, however, decreased by
26.88 per cent to US$0.68 billion from US$0.93 billion in the
preceding quarter, due to a decline in foreign aids & grants.


Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024

US$ Billion
Secondary Income

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Figure 45: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2 Financial Account
The financial account recorded a net reduction in financial
liabilities. The financial account recorded a net reduction in financial
liabilities of US$5.03 billion, in contrast to a net incurrence of
US$7.44 billion in Q42023.
The economy recorded a net reduction of US$5.85 billion in financial
liabilities, as against an inflow of US$8.38 billion in the preceding
quarter. The development was due to repayment of short-term loan
liabilities worth US$7.69 billion. ‘Other investment’ liabilities recorded
a reduction of US$9.55 billion, in contrast to an inflow of US$4.92
billion in Q42023. Foreign portfolio inflows decreased to US$1.40
billion, from US$2.73 billion in Q42023. Direct investment increased
significantly to US$2.38 billion, from US$0.71 billion in Q42023.
Residents disposed financial assets totaling US$0.82 billion, as
against an acquisition of US$0.94 billion in Q42023. The
development reflected the US$0.77 billion divestment in direct
investment assets vis-à-vis an acquisition of US$0.19 billion in the

Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
US$ Billion
Secondary Income Balance
Remittances
Government Transfers
Net Incurrence
of Liability
Financial Account
Developments
Net Incurrence of
Liability

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preceding quarter, largely, due to the disposal of equity and
investment fund shares by residents. Portfolio investments recorded
a disposal of US$0.15 billion, in contrast to an acquisition of US$0.21
billion in Q42023. Other investment recorded a higher acquisition of
US$1.05 billion, compared with US$0.22 billion in the preceding
quarter.
2.4.3 External Debt
Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-March 2024 stood at US$42.12
billion (23.02% of GDP). A breakdown showed that the multilateral
loans, from the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, and
African Development Bank Group, amounted to US$20.83 billion,
accounting for 49.45 per cent of the total. Commercial sources
borrowed in the form of Euro bonds, at US$15.12 billion, accounted
for 35.90 per cent. Syndicated loan arranged by African Finance
Corporation, at US$0.27 billion, accounted for the balance. Loans
from bilateral sources was US$5.96 billion or 14.02 per cent of the
total external debt stock.
External debt service payment increased to US$1.12 billion at endMarch 2024 from US$0.94 billion at the end of the preceding quarter.
A breakdown showed that interest payment was US$0.43 billion,
representing 38.39 per cent of the entire debt service payment.
Principal repayment, at US$0.64 billion, comprised 57.14 per cent of
the total, while ‘other payments’ constituted the balance. Analysis of
interest payments showed that commercial borrowings accounted
for 67.44 per cent of the total at US$0.29 billion, interest on
multilateral loans amounted to US$0.05 billion or 11.63 per cent,
while bilateral institutions made up the balance..

External Debt
Net Acquisition of
Asset

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2.4.4 International Investment Position
The international investment position posted a lower net
financial liability of US$67.24 billion. The stock of financial assets
declined to US$103.35 billion from US$103.87 billion in the
preceding quarter due, largely, to the depletion in reserve assets.
Direct investment assets fell to US$17.18 billion from US$17.66
billion. Portfolio investment assets also decreased by 3.47 per cent
to US$4.16 billion, relative to the preceding quarter. Other
investment assets, however, rose to US$49.57 billion from
US$48.53 billion in the preceding quarter.
The stock of financial liabilities decreased to US$170.59 billion from
US$190.13 billion in Q42023, attributed, mainly, to the 13.24 per cent
decline in ‘other investment’ liabilities to US$73.94 billion. The stocks
of direct investment and portfolio investment liabilities fell to
US$68.84 billion and US$27.64 billion, respectively, compared with
US$73.06 billion and US$31.59 billion in Q42024.
2.4.5 International Reserves
The external reserves remained above the benchmark of 3
months of import cover. The external reserves stood at US$32.29
billion at end-March 2024, relative to US$33.22 billion at endDecember 2023. The level of external reserves in the review quarter
could cover 7.1 months of import for goods and services or 10.1
months of import for goods only.


International
Investment Position
International
Reserves

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Figure 46: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves showed that the shares of the
CBN and the Federal Government stood at US$27.53 billion and
US$4.59 billion, respectively, while the Federation accounted for the
balance of US$0.07 million. In terms of currency composition, the
holdings of external reserves were as follows: US dollar US$24.01
billion (74.89%); Special Drawing Rights US$4.29 billion (13.30%);
Chinese Yuan US$3.24 billion (10.03%); Euro US$0.31 billion
(0.96%); British Pounds US$0.27 billion (0.83%); while other
currencies accounted for the balance.
2.4.6 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
Net foreign exchange inflow to the economy stood at US$11.50
billion in the review quarter. Foreign exchange inflow into the
economy increased by 25.69 per cent to US$22.26 billion from
US$17.71 billion in Q42023. Inflow through the Bank increased to
US$8.09 billion from US$5.01 billion in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, inflow through autonomous sources increased to
US$14.17 billion, from US$12.70 billion in the preceding quarter.


Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Months of import
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods)-RHS
Months of Import (Goods and Services)-RHS
Foreign Exchange
Flows through the
Economy

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Foreign exchange outflow through the economy rose by 63.28 per
cent to US$10.76 billion, relative to US$6.59 billion in Q42023.
Outflow through the Bank increased by 80.47 per cent to US$8.93
billion from US$4.95 billion in the preceding quarter. In the same
vein, autonomous outflow rose by 10.98 per cent to US$1.82 billion,
from US$1.64 billion in the preceding quarter.
Consequently, net foreign exchange inflow through the economy
increased by 3.42 per cent to US$11.50 billion from US$11.12 billion
in the preceding quarter. Similarly, net inflow through autonomous
sources rose to US$12.35 billion from US$11.05 billion in the
preceding quarter. A net outflow of US$0.85 billion was recorded
through the Bank, compared with a net inflow of US$0.06 billion in
the preceding quarter.
Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the
Economy (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
The average turnover at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market
(NFEM) increased by 61.30 per cent to US$0.20 billion, relative to
US$0.12 billion in Q42023, reflecting increased trading activities in
the market.
Q12023
Q42023
Q12024
Inflow
17.18
17.71
22.26
Outflow
9.98
6.59
10.76
Netflow
7.2
11.12
11.5

Inflow
Outflow
Netflow

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Figure 48: Turnover in the NFEM

Source: Financial Markets Dealers Quotation

2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar at the NFEM
depreciated by 35.53 per cent to ₦1,304.72/US$ from ₦841.15/US$
in Q42023.


2 0 2 3 Q 1
2 0 2 3 Q 2
2 0 2 3 Q 3
2 0 2 3 Q 4
2 0 2 4 Q 1
Per cent
US $ Million
Average Turnover(LHS)
Rate of Turnover(RHS)
Average Exchange
Rate

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3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1
Global Outlook
Global output is expected to remain resilient but uneven across
regions. The April 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook projected
global growth to remain steady at 3.2 per cent in 2024, same as in
2023. This resilience is attributed to the ability to withstand various
global shocks, despite elevated policy rates aimed at ensuring price
stability. However, the pace and trajectory of growth are expected to
be diverse among economies.
In AEs, growth rate is projected to rise to 1.7 per cent in 2024 from
1.6 per cent in 2023 and increase slightly to 1.8 per cent in 2025,
driven by solid consumer spending, sustained job growth, higher real
wages, and rising asset prices. In EMDEs, growth is projected to
decline, marginally, to 4.2 per cent in 2024, from 4.3 per cent in 2023
and remain at 4.2 per cent in 2025. While moderate growth is
anticipated in emerging and developing Asia, increased growth
projections are estimated for economies in the Middle East and
Central Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan African economies.
Global headline inflation is expected to fall from an annual
average of 6.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.9 per cent in 2024. The
decline in inflation is projected to come, primarily, from advanced
economies, where the rate is expected to fall by 2.0 percentage
points in 2024, while it is expected to decline in 2025 for EMDEs.
In AEs, inflation pressures are expected to continue to ease, as
inflation rates fall towards the long-run objectives of major central
banks in this group, driven by tight monetary policy. In EMDEs,
inflation is forecast to moderate in 2024, but remain significantly

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above the 2010-2019 averages. The expected moderation is
anchored on a slowdown in food and energy prices, although with
upside risks.
3.2
Domestic Outlook
The outlook for the Nigerian economy remains positive in the
near-term, despite immense headwinds. The positive outlook is
anchored on the expected favourable trajectory of crude oil prices,
and an increased level of domestic crude oil production. The removal
of PMS subsidy is anticipated to expand the fiscal space, providing
an additional impetus for growth. Nevertheless, this growth outlook
is not without its downside risks, including global economic
uncertainties, domestic security challenges, and heightened debt
service obligations.
In the short-term, inflation pressures are expected to moderate.
The strict implementation of the restrictive monetary policy measures
is expected to moderate the pace of inflation within the short-term.
This will be further aided by base effect rebalancing, and the waning
impact of the increase in the domestic price of PMS. The impact of
climate change on agricultural output, heightening insecurity and offcycle elections, however, constitute significant risks to inflation
dynamics.
Domestic prices are expected to remain elevated. The lingering
effects of policy reforms shocks, especially, on transportation and
manufacturing input costs, are expected to keep domestic prices up
(but flattening) in the short-term. Supply chain disruptions could also
persist due to the security challenges in the country. However, the
Bank’s contractionary stance, clearing of the FX backlogs, as well as
other reforms in the FX market, could help ease inflation pressures.

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Nigeria’s external position remains optimistic. This is driven by
the expected upswing in domestic crude oil production and
favourable crude oil prices. In addition, the gains from capital flows
and remittances, on the back of continued implementation of policy
reforms would support the outlook for external reserves.
Nonetheless, the risks of capital reversals could be heightened by
the delayed rate cuts in AEs and escalating geopolitical risks.