This document is for CBN internal consumption


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


Third Quarter

i

ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report presents developments
in the Nigeria economy, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which
is published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the
Nigerian economy, as well as global developments that impact on the
domestic economy. In addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN
in pursuit of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors,
and the public. Free downloads of the Report, including current and past
issues can be obtained from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All
inquiries concerning the Report should be directed to the Director,
Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja,
Nigeria.


Content


iii

Tables
Table 2: Selected Agricultural Export Commodities Q32025 (in dollars; Jan.
Table 7: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (per cent) . 32
Table 10: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian Exchange

Figures
Figure 2: PMIs in Selected Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 4
Figure 18: Headline Inflation across States in September 2025 (Per cent) .. 21
Figure 21: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q32025 (₦
Figure 22: Bottom-Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q32025
Figure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Compositions (₦ Billion) .. 28


iv

Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$

Box Information


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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
SUMMARY
The global economy maintained a positive growth trajectory, underpinned
by expansions in the manufacturing and services sectors. Inflation pressures
exhibited divergent trends across regions, with majority of the economies
recording disinflation. The general easing of price pressures allowed for a
predominantly accommodative monetary policy stance among central
banks in both AEs and EMDEs. In financial markets, equities rallied on the
back of heightened investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The
average spot price for Nigeria’s benchmark crude, Bonny Light, rose to
US$71.36 per barrel, from US$69.68 in Q22025.
Domestically, the economy sustained its expansionary path with a growth
rate of 3.98 per cent, supported by the resilience of the non-oil sector. Crude
oil production fell in Q32025, driven by reduced output in key
terminals/streams, while electricity production and consumption improved.
Headline inflation moderated further to 20.98 per cent in Q32025, driven by
decreases in both food and non-food components of the consumer price
index (CPI) basket.
The fiscal space improved in Q32025, as provisional gross federation
revenue rose by 43.56 per cent, driven by an increase in non-oil receipts,
bolstered by seasonal corporate tax filings and higher oil export receipts.
Though consolidated public debt rose slightly to ₦152.40 trillion (33.98% of
GDP) due to new borrowings, it remained below the 40.00 per cent national
debt threshold.
The financial sector remained sound, stable, and resilient, as indicated by
the favourable prudential indicators. Broad money supply expanded
moderately, driven, wholly, by net foreign assets, while domestic credit
remained constrained by the Bank’s anti-inflationary stance. High yields and
robust liquidity spurred fixed-income activity, with money market rates
oscillating within the policy corridor. Similarly, the Nigerian capital market
was bullish, supported by strong corporate earnings.
The external sector performance resulted in an overall balance of payments
surplus in Q32025. The current account also maintained a surplus position
despite geopolitical tensions. The financial account recorded a net lending
position, following a significant accretion to reserve assets. The external
reserves position stood at US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025, while
the naira appreciated by 3.94 per cent to an average of ₦1,521.11/US$.

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global output improved in Q32025, driven by broad-based expansion in
manufacturing and services, while inflation dynamics varied across economies.
With inflation broadly easing, monetary policy remained accommodative in most
Advanced Economies (AEs), and Emerging Market & Developing Economies
(EMDEs). In the financial market, equities rallied on account of expanding
investment in AI infrastructure, while bond yields showed mixed performance, as
investors balanced expectations of lower interest rates. The average spot price of
Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (34.9° API), rose to US$71.36 per barrel
(pb), from US$69.68 pb in the preceding quarter.
1.1
Global Economic Activity
Global economic activity expanded in Q32025 on account of expansion in the
manufacturing and services sectors, driven by growth in production and new
orders. The global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) expanded to 52.60
in Q32025, from 51.23 in the preceding quarter, underpinned by an increase in
employment, expansion of the manufacturing sector, and growth in new business.
The services PMI expanded to 52.80 from 51.53 in the preceding quarter, buoyed
by the growth in business, consumer and financial services activity. Similarly, the
manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.90 from a contraction of 49.87 in Q22025, as
a result of higher new orders, and improved business optimism.

Table 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
Composite (Output)
52.43
51.23
52.60
Employment Level
50.40
50.47
50.50
New Business Orders
51.67
50.93
52.50
New Export Business Orders
48.97
48.20
48.90
Future Output
61.27
59.50
59.40
Input Prices
56.63
57.13
56.90
Output Prices
52.47
53.27
53.90
Manufacturing
49.37
49.87
50.90
Services (Business Activity)
53.33
51.53
52.80
New Business
52.83
51.30
53.10
New Export Business
50.93
48.43
49.30
Future Activity
61.87
59.63
59.30
Employment
50.70
50.80
50.70
Outstanding Business
49.60
50.13
51.10
Input Prices
57.40
57.87
57.60
Prices Charged
52.87
53.50
54.40
Source: JP Morgan

Global Economic
Activity

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Economic activity across AEs expanded in Q32025, driven by growth in both
services and manufacturing sectors. PMI in the US, Spain, and the UK rose to 54.53,
54.07, and 51.70, respectively, from 52.17, 52.00, and 50.57 in the preceding
quarter. The expansion was bolstered by accelerated job creation, increased new
orders, and higher manufacturing output. Similarly, PMI in Japan remained in the
expansion region at 51.63 in Q32025 compared with 51.90 in Q22025, supported
by renewed growth in factory output, increased activities in the services sector,
and higher employment.
Economic activities in Italy expanded, as PMI increased to 51.63, albeit slower than
51.90 in the preceding quarter, supported by improved services activity and firmer
inflows of new business. In Germany, PMI rebounded to 51.03 from a contraction
of 49.67 in the preceding quarter, driven primarily by a rebound in services
activity, improved new business inflows, and a modest recovery in export demand.
Though within the contraction territory, the PMI in Canada improved to 47.80 in
the review quarter from 43.73 in the preceding quarter, driven by a moderation
in downturns across both the manufacturing and services sectors, easing inputcost pressures, and improved business confidence. In France, PMI remained
unchanged at 48.77, as milder improvement in manufacturing and services were
offset by persistent weak demand, continued declines in new business, and
subdued output conditions.

Figure 1: PMIs in Selected Advanced Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.

The level of economic activity in EMDEs varied in Q32025, on account of diverse
trends in export orders and output across both the manufacturing and services
sectors. PMI in India expanded to 61.37 from 60.00 in Q22025, driven by stronger
activity across both industry and services sectors, improved domestic demand,


UNITED STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
50-point Threshold
Economic Activity in
Advanced Economies
Economic activity in
EMDEs

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
and higher employment & new business. In China, PMI rose to 51.43 from 50.67
in the preceding quarter, driven by stronger domestic and foreign demand and
improved business confidence. Similarly, PMI in South Africa increased to 50.43
from 50.30 in the preceding quarter on account of higher output and new
business, and an uptick in export demand.
Economic activity in Indonesia rebounded with a PMI of 50.37 from a contraction
of 47.00 in Q22025, driven by higher new orders, increased input, employment
growth, and strengthened business confidence. In Mexico, PMI improved to 49.63
from 45.93 in the preceding quarter, buoyed by increased new orders and
stronger demand.
PMI in Turkey and Brazil contracted further to 46.63 and 47.10, reflecting broad
decline in output and new orders, weak external demand, and persistent cost
pressures. In Turkey, lower export demand and currency-related cost pressures
also contributed to the downturn, while in Brazil, decline in new orders
constrained economic activity. Similarly, PMI in Russia contracted to 47.83,
following a slowdown in businesses and manufacturing activity.

Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.
Note: South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI.

1.2 Global Inflation
Global inflation trajectory varied in Q32025, owing to fluctuations in the prices of
energy, food, housing, and utilities. Inflation in the US and the UK rose to 3.10 and
3.80 per cent, respectively, from 2.70 and 3.60 per cent in Q22025. Inflation in the
US was driven by rising energy cost, while elevated transportation cost fuelled
price pressures in the UK. Inflation in France rose to 1.20 per cent, Germany
(2.40%), and Spain (3.00%), from 1.00, 2.00, and 2.30 per cent, respectively, in the

CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
50-point Threshold
Global Inflation

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
preceding quarter. The upward trend in France was attributed to higher cost of
health, communication, and tobacco, while in Germany, it was attributed to the
rising prices of fruits, jam, sugar, honey, and transportation. In Spain, inflation was
driven, mainly, by higher transportation cost.
Similarly, inflation in Canada accelerated to 2.40 per cent, from 1.90 per cent in
the preceding quarter, on account of higher food prices and the effect of elevated
gasoline prices. In Italy and Japan, inflation however, moderated to 1.60 and 2.90
per cent, respectively, from 1.70 and 3.30 per cent in Q22025. The deceleration
of inflation in Italy was attributed to a decline in the cost of energy,
communication, and processed foods, while in Japan, it was due, largely, to
declining gas prices.
Figure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics
Inflation outcomes in EMDEs were mixed, reflecting base effects, food price
dynamics, currency pressures, and fiscal adjustments. Inflation in India eased to
1.54 per cent in Q32025, from 2.10 per cent in the preceding quarter, driven
largely by declines in the prices of food, clothing, and footwear. Similarly,
moderating food prices in Brazil, alongside slower increases in transportation,
housing, and communication costs, eased inflationary pressures to 5.17 per cent
in Q32025, from 5.35 per cent in the preceding quarter. Mexico and Russia also
recorded moderation in inflation to 3.76 and 8.00 per cent, respectively, in
Q32025, from 4.32 and 9.40 per cent in the preceding quarter. The moderation in
Russia was driven, largely, by a decline in services prices and moderating core
inflation. In Mexico, easing food and energy prices contributed to the downward
trend in inflationary pressures.

US
UK
Germany
France
Japan
Canada
Italy
Spain
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Similarly, inflation in Turkey declined to 33.29 per cent in Q32025 from 35.05 per
cent in the preceding quarter, driven by moderated prices of food, education,
communication, housing, clothing, and transportation.
In contrast, inflation in Indonesia accelerated to 2.65 per cent in Q32025, from
1.87 per cent in Q22025. The increase was buoyed by heightened food prices and
core inflation. Core inflation also contributed to an uptick in China and South
Africa, as inflation rose to 0.3 and 3.4 per cent, respectively, in Q32025 from 0.1
and 3.0 per cent in the preceding quarter. Increases in the prices of electricity,
water supply, food, and hotel accommodation also contributed to the inflationary
pressures in South Africa.


Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics

1.3
Global Financial Markets
1.3.1
Global Financial Conditions
Equities market sustained its bullish run in many AEs and EMDEs, propelled, largely,
by tech and AI-driven stocks, as well as rebound in small-cap equities. Stocks across
AEs recorded positive returns in Q32025, supported by AI-related technology
stocks. In the US, the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones gained 21.16, 7.79,
and 5.22 per cent, respectively, driven by robust demand for AI and tech stocks,
solid corporate earnings, and the US Fed rate cut. The NIKKEI and TOPIX indices
rallied in Japan, appreciating by 10.98 and 9.98 per cent, respectively. The rally
was supported by the US Fed rate cut, amid favourable domestic political
developments. Similarly, the UK FTSE 100 appreciated by 6.73 per cent, driven by
a weaker pound, sectoral gains in communication, technology & basic materials,
and a renewed pickup in initial public offerings activity on the London Stock
Exchange.

India
IndonesiaSouth Africa Brazil
China
Mexico
Russia
Turkey
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Equities in the euro area recorded a strong performance in Q32025, as the Italian
FTSE MIB, Euro STOXX 50, and the French CAC 40 appreciated by 7.37, 4.28, and
3.00 per cent, respectively. The performance was due to strong corporate
earnings in tech, financials, and healthcare sectors. The exception was the German
DAX, which depreciated by 0.12 per cent, owing to slow economic activities.
Most stocks in the EMDEs rallied in Q32025. In China and South Africa, the
Shenzhen component index and JALSH appreciated by 29.25 and 11.94 per cent,
respectively. Gains in China was associated with strong performance in AI and
semiconductor stocks and progress with US-China trade talks, as well as the
continued focus on their anti-involution policy, while in South Africa, the market
performance was supported by stronger precious metals prices and improved
investor confidence following the removal of the country from the Financial Action
Task Force (FATF) grey list.
The Fed’s rate cut, progress on trade negotiations with the US, and ongoing
investor enthusiasm for AI-related stocks supported the Mexico’s MEXBOL and
Brazilian BOVESPA to gain 9.51 and 5.32 per cent, respectively. The Russian MOEX
and India’s BSE SENSEX, however, delivered 5.72 and 3.99 per cent loss,
respectively, as geopolitical uncertainty weighed on the market.
Figure 5: Growth Rate of Key Global Stocks (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & MarketWatch

The performance of long-term bonds was mixed across AEs and EMDEs. The 10year bond yield in the UK and Euro area rose to 4.70 and 2.71 per cent,
respectively, from 4.49 and 2.61 per cent in the preceding quarter, supported by

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q22025
Q32025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
increased fiscal spending on infrastructure and defence, which gave impetus to
the macro-outlook of the economy. Similarly, yields in Japan and Italy increased to
1.65 and 3.56 per cent, respectively, from 1.43 and 3.51 per cent in Q22025,
following strong corporate earnings on investment grade bonds. In the US and
Canada, however, yields fell to 4.15 and 3.19 per cent, respectively, from 4.23 and
3.27 per cent in the preceding quarter, as concerns about Fed’s independence
weighed on investors’ sentiment, amid weakening labour market.
In the EMDEs, progress on trade negotiations with the US supported the higher
bond return in Turkey and India, increasing yield to 29.27 and 6.57 per cent,
respectively, compared with 29.15 and 6.32 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Yields in Russia remained unchanged at 14.81 per cent, as concerns about
lingering geopolitical tension was offset by optimism on the surging popularity of
artificial intelligence.
In South Africa, however, yield fell to 9.18 per cent, from 9.95 per cent in the
preceding quarter, as investors sought duration exposure amid expectations of
looser global monetary policy. Similarly, yield in Mexico and Indonesia declined to
8.59 and 6.34 per cent, respectively, from 9.19 and 6.63 per cent in the preceding
quarter, following expectations of rate cuts.
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

1.4
Global Commodity Markets
World crude oil demand and supply in Q32025 exceeded the levels in the preceding
quarter. Global crude oil supply, including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), rose by 2.27
per cent to 107.44 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 105.06 mbpd in
the preceding quarter. The increase was driven mainly by higher production in both

USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
World Crude Supply
and Demand

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries. OPEC+ supply rose by 1.53 per cent to 33.92 mbpd
from 33.41 mbpd, primarily attributed to increased supplies from Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Similarly, non-OPEC supply rose by 2.61 per cent
to 73.51 mbpd, from 71.64 mbpd, due to increased output in the US, Brazil,
Canada, Guyana and Argentina.
Global crude oil demand, including NGLs, increased by 0.77 per cent to 104.83
mbpd, from 104.03 mbpd in Q22025 on account of higher demand in both OECD
and non-OECD countries. The demand from non-OECD countries rose by 0.39 per
cent to 58.61 mbpd from 58.38 mbpd due to increased economic activity in China
and other Asian countries. The OECD countries demand also rose by 1.20 per cent
to 46.22 mbpd, compared with 45.67 mbpd in the preceding quarter.
Figure 7: Total Global Crude Supply and Demand

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil spot prices increased, on account of heightened geopolitical concerns,
amid dwindling hopes of a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The
average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (34.9° API), rose
by 2.41 per cent to US$71.36 per barrel (pb), from US$69.68 pb in the preceding
quarter. The prices of Brent, at US$69.91 pb, Forcados (US$72.65 pb), WTI
(US$66.46 pb) and OPEC Reference Basket (US$70.39 pb) all exhibited similar
trends.

Q12021
Q22021
Q32021
Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022
Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
mbpd
Global Crude Supply
Global Crude Demand
Crude Oil
Prices

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 8: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ pb)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The average spot prices of precious metals rose, following improvement in
demand. The average spot price of gold rose by 5.17 per cent to US$3,457.62 per
ounce, Silver (17.24%) to US$39.52, platinum (29.04%) to US$1,385.59 and
palladium (18.23%) to US$1,169.86 per ounce, from the levels in the preceding
quarter. The rise in gold prices was attributed, mainly, to increased demand by
central banks and a weaker US dollar, amid concerns about US trade policies.
Improved global industrial activity contributed to the rise in the price of Silver and
platinum, while the increase in the price of palladium was driven primarily by
strong investor demand.
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

Other Mineral
Commodities

Q 1 2022
Q 2 2022
Q 3 2022
Q 4 2022
Q 1 2023
Q 2 2023
Q 3 2023
Q 4 2023
Q 1 2024
Q 2 2024
Q 3 2024
Q 4 2024
Q 1 2025
Q 2 2025
Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket

Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
The average prices of selected global agricultural commodities decreased in
Q32025 compared with the preceding quarter primarily due to improved supply,
amid slower demand. The all-commodity price index of selected agricultural
commodities decreased by 7.34 per cent to 134.42 in Q32025 from 145.07 in the
preceding quarter. The decrease was on account of fall in the prices of coffee,
cocoa, groundnut, wheat and soya beans following weaker demand, improved
weather conditions and higher yields of cocoa in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The
reopening of key shipping corridors also contributed to the decline in prices.
The prices of palm oil, rubber, and cotton, however, increased due to a limited
supply from key producing countries, arising from logistic constraints and high
farm input costs.
Table 2: Selected Agricultural Export Commodities Q32025 (in dollars; Jan.
2010=100)
Commodity
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Sources: World Bank Pink Sheet
Note: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major Agricultural Export Commodities for the
Second Quarter of 2025 (in dollars; Jan. 2010=100)

1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
Accommodative monetary policy was observed across the AEs and EMDEs in
Q32025, owing, largely, to disinflation. The US Fed cut its policy rate to 4.00 – 4.25
from 4.25 – 4.50 per cent, due to downside risks to employment. Similarly, Bank
of Canada reduced its policy rate to 2.50 per cent to support growth amid
expectation that inflation would remain close to its 2% target. The Bank of England
also eased its policy rate to 4.00 per cent, from 4.25 per cent in the preceding
quarter, as the path of disinflation in underlying domestic price continued.
The Bank of Japan assumed a cautious stance, holding its policy rate at 0.50 per
cent, over concerns of global uncertainty. Similarly, the European Central Bank
(ECB) maintained its policy rate at 2.15, as inflation remains close to the 2.00 per
cent target, amid robust labour market, and modest output growth.
Agricultural
Commodity Prices

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Monetary policy stance was dovish in most EMDEs in Q32025, driven by easing
inflation. The Bank of Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of South Africa cut rates by
75.00 and 25.00 basis points, respectively, to 4.75 and 7.00 per cent, due to
improving inflation outlook and the need to support economic growth.
The Bank of Russia and the Bank of Mexico lowered policy rates to 17.00 and 7.50
per cent, respectively, from 21.00 and 9.00 per cent to support growth amid trade
and geopolitical uncertainties. Similarly, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
lowered its policy rate to 40.50 per cent, from 46.00 per cent in the preceding
quarter amid disinflation and weak domestic demand.
The People’s Bank of China and Banco do Brasil, however, maintained policy rates
at 3.00 and 15.00 per cent, respectively, in Q32025, to support output growth.

Table 3: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
US

Canada

Euro Area

UK

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics.

In Q32025, the South African rand appreciated by 3.69 per cent, due to an
improved trade surplus. Similarly, the Russian ruble and Chinese renminbi
appreciated by 2.11 and 1.05 per cent, respectively. The ruble's appreciation was
mainly due to tight capital controls and attractive yields, while that of renminbi
was driven mainly by expectations of future US Fed rate cuts.
Emerging Market
Currencies

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 10: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


-15
-10
-5

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian naira
South African rand
Russian ruble

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.0
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
The Nigerian economy remained on a positive growth trajectory, driven majorly by
improvement in the non-oil sector. Headline inflation declined relative to the
preceding quarter, due to decreases in food and non-food components of the
consumer price index (CPI) basket. Crude oil production fell on account of reduced
output in key terminals/streams.

2.1 Real Sector Developments
The economy grew by 3.98 per cent in Q32025, compared with 4.23 per cent in
Q22025. The development was driven by broad-based expansion and resilience
across the 22 sub-sectors.
The non-oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent, compared with 3.64 per cent in the
preceding quarter, contributing 3.78 percentage points to GDP growth. Expansion
in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by activities in crop production, information
& communication, real estate, financial & insurance services, and trade subsectors. Similarly, the oil sector grew by 5.84 per cent, compared with 20.46 per
cent in the preceding quarter, contributing 0.20 percentage point to overall GDP
growth. The realised growth was on account of increase in global oil prices, which
rose to US$71.36 per barrel in Q32025, from US$69.68 per barrel in the preceding
quarter.
Figure 11: Real GDP Growth Rate (Y-on-Y)
Source: National Bureau of Statistic


Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
The services, industry, and agriculture sectors recorded strong performance in
Q32025. The services sector grew by 4.15 per cent, compared with 3.94 per cent
in Q22025. It remained the most dominant sector, accounting for 53.02 per cent
of GDP and contributed 2.19 percentage points to GDP growth.

Figure 12: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Within the services sector, the information & communications subsector (ICT)
maintained its lead, growing by 5.78 per cent and contributing 0.52 percentage
point. The realised growth was on account of sustained investment in the sub
sector, particularly in network infrastructure and 5G services, which supported the
increase in the number of telecom subscriptions to 173,541,983, from
171,730,064 in Q22025.
The real estate subsector grew by 3.50 per cent, contributing 0.47 percentage
point to the overall growth following increasing adoption of smart home
technologies, the rise of PropTech, improved diaspora investment, as well as
government initiatives to promote affordable housing and infrastructure
development.
The finance and insurance subsector expanded by 19.63 per cent, compared with
16.13 per cent in the preceding quarter. The growth outcome was due, primarily,
to the gains from the bank recapitalisation exercise. Other drivers include gains
from sustained digital transformation and higher returns on investment yield
portfolios by insurance companies. Similarly, the trade subsector grew by 1.98 per
cent, contributing 0.33 percentage point to overall growth in Q32025.
The agriculture sector also grew by 3.79 per cent, compared with 2.82 per cent in
the preceding quarter. The growth was due to increased activities in all four
subsectors. The crop production subsector grew by 3.90 per cent, compared with

Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

16 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
3.32 per cent in Q22025, contributing 0.90 percentage point to GDP growth,
supported by favourable weather and sustained investment in the subsector. The
forestry, livestock, and fishing subsectors grew by 4.69, 3.49, and 1.58 per cents,
respectively, compared with 1.66, 1.64, and 2.57 per cent in Q22025. The
performance of the subsectors was on account of increased timber production and
high demand for animal products.
The industry sector grew by 3.77 per cent, compared with 7.46 per cent in Q22025
and contributed 0.60 percentage point to the growth in GDP. The performance of
the sector was also reflected in the 3.19 per cent growth in the index of industrial
production arising from sustained public and private sectors investment,
particularly, in mining & quarrying, construction, and manufacturing subsectors.
Table 4: Index of Industrial Production
Period
IIP
Y-on-Y Change
Q32024
72.35
1.59
Q42024
89.63
1.38
Q12025
97.95
2.77
Q22025
85.83
8.01
Q32025
73.86
3.19
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production

The mining & quarrying subsector grew by 7.02 per cent in Q32025, albeit, slower
than 20.86 per cent in Q22025, and contributed 0.24 percentage point to the
overall growth. The index of mining production which grew by 7.03 per cent,
mirrors the performance of the subsector. The slower outcome was on account of
interruptions on the Trans-Niger Pipeline, which led to lower output across key
export streams and terminals. The realised growth was on account of increase in
global oil prices, which rose to US$71.36 per barrel in Q32025, from US$69.68 per
barrel in the preceding quarter.
The construction subsector expanded by 5.57 per cent, compared with 5.27 per
cent in Q22025. Also, the manufacturing subsector grew by 1.25 per cent in
Q32025 compared with 1.60 per cent in the preceding quarter, owing to increased
domestic sourcing of raw materials and improved business confidence.
Other subsectors in the industry sector; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioner
and water supply, sewage, & waste management subsectors grew by 4.58 and
10.26 per cents, respectively, in Q32025, compared with 11.47 and 10.60 per cent
in the preceding quarter.


17 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Crude oil production fell in Q32025, driven by reduced output in key
terminals/streams.
Average
domestic
crude
oil
production,
excluding
condensates, fell by 2.70 per cent to 1.44 mbpd, from 1.48 mbpd in the preceding
quarter. Total crude oil production, including blended and unblended
condensates, decreased by 2.38 per cent to 1.64 mbpd, from 1.68 mbpd in
Q22025. The development was due to reduced output from Bonny, Qua Iboe,
Forcados, Tulja-Okwuibome and Okoro terminals.

Figure 13: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC Quota

Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)

Electricity production and consumption improved in the review quarter. The
average estimated electricity generation in Q32025 increased by 0.76 per cent to
4,953.45 MW/h from 4,916.33 MW/h in the preceding quarter. This was due to
increased gas supply to thermal substations, sustained upgrade and maintenance
of generation and transmission infrastructures, and increased installation of
renewable energy sources by both private entities and the government. At 120.34,
the index of electricity production rose by 6.06 per cent, y-o-y, mirroring the
performance of the sector. Similarly, the average estimated electricity
consumption rose by 3.82 per cent to 4,417.28 MW/h from 4,254.65 MW/h in
Q22025, reflecting improved economic activity.

Table 5: Index of Electricity Production
Period
IEP
Y-on-Y Change
Q32024
114.70
3.73
Q42024
131.79
-5.19
Q12025
141.24
14.61
Q22025
201.32
11.24
Q32025
120.34
6.06
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota
Crude Oil plus Condensate
Crude Oil Production and
Export
Electricity Generation/
Consumption

18 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025


Box 1: Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities
Prices of most of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities trended
downwards in Q32025 relative to the preceding quarter, primarily due to improved
supply. The decrease ranged from 0.12 per cent for tomato to 8.38 per cent for Gari
(white). However, the prices of rice (local), yam tuber, sweet potato, and palm oil, among
others, increased during the review quarter compared to the preceding period, due to
heightened demand pressure from stockpiling ahead of the end-of-year festivities.

Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Third Quarter 2025
Food Items

2024Q3/a
2025Q2/a
2025Q3/b
%
Change
%
Change
Unit

(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)
Agric eggs, medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye,
sold loose.
"

Gari white, sold loose.
"

Gari yellow, sold loose.
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle,
specify bottle.
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold
loose.
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Rice, sold loose
"

Rice is local, sold loose.
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle,
specify bottle.
"

Wheat flour:
prepackaged (Golden
Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Agric eggs, medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye,
sold loose.
"

Sources: (a) National Bureau of Statistics (b) Staff Estimates

19 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025

2.1.2
Inflation
Headline inflation moderated further in Q32025, driven by decreases in food and
non-food components of the consumer price index (CPI) basket. Headline inflation
(year-on-year) slowed to 20.98 per cent from 25.29 per cent in the preceding
quarter, mainly due to increased food supply from early harvests, relative stability
in the exchange rate, and moderation in energy costs. In addition, the Bank’s tight
monetary policy stance contributed to moderating inflation in the review period.

Figure 14: Headline, Food and Core Inflation (y-o-y)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Although inflation remained elevated at 20.98 per cent in September 2025, its
monthly momentum slowed further by 2.16 percentage point, compared with a
reduced momentum of 0.77 percentage point in June 2025. The deceleration was
due to the declining trends in the food and non-food components of the CPI basket.

Figure 15: Monthly Inflation Momentum

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics


Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
headline
core
food

Feb'25
Mar'25
Apr'25
May'25
Jun'25
Jul'25
Aug'25
Sep'25
Headline
Inflation
Inflation
Momentum

20 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025

Core inflation slowed to 22.11 per cent in Q32025 from 25.41 per cent in the
preceding quarter, owing to relative stability in the foreign exchange market. Food
inflation also moderated to 20.16 per cent from 25.41 per cent in Q22025, due to
increased food supply from early harvests. The moderation in food inflation was
further supported by lower energy costs, particularly PMS price.

Lower costs of farm produce and energy continued to moderate inflation, with
both maintaining a milder deflation at 0.75 and 0.47 per cent in Q32025 from
negative 13.30 and 11.00 per cent in the preceding quarter. The services and goods
component moderated inflation rising at slower rates of 1.17 and 0.44 per cent,
compared with 3.26 and 0.93 per cent i1n Q22025.1

Figure 16: Other sub-indices of inflation (Per cent)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Urban and rural inflation slowed to 20.63 and 21.06 per cent, respectively, from
26.00 and 23.71 per cent in Q22025. The decrease was due to the early harvest of
major food crops, relative stability in the foreign exchange market, and lower
energy costs.


1 Following the January 2025 CPI rebasing, the NBS introduced these four special
inflation indices to better capture structural shifts in consumption patterns and
price dynamics.


January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

Farm Produce
Energy
Services
Goods
Core & Food
Inflation
Urban/Rural
Inflation
Special Indices


21 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 17: Urban/Rural Inflation (Per cent)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Headline inflation varied across states, including the Federal Capital Territory
(Abuja). The highest rise in headline inflation was in Adamawa (23.69%), Katsina
(23.53%), and Nasarawa (22.29%) states, owing to transport and logistics
constraints that undermined supply. However, the lowest rise in prices were in
Anambra (9.28%), Niger (11.79%), and Bauchi (12.36%) states, primarily due to the
harvest of major staple food.

Figure 18: Headline Inflation across States in September 2025 (Per cent)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments
The Federal Government approved ₦1.80 billion Intervention Programme in a
continued effort to rehabilitate the Chibok schoolgirls. The fund covers tuition,

Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Urban
Rural

Headline
Welfare
State Level
Inflation

22 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
accommodation, vocational training, psychosocial support, and other related
services until 2027.
Also, in a renewed effort to alleviate poverty and stimulate economic growth
across Nigeria’s 8,809 political wards, the federal government approved a
nationwide grassroots-focused initiative titled the Renewed Hope Ward
Development Programme (RHWDP). The RHWDP, which seeks to strengthen rural
development through coordinated interventions in poverty alleviation, food
security, infrastructure, energy access, and job creation will have each ward host a
minimum of 1,000 to 2,000 economic activities depending on its size.

In a bid to promote financial stability, improve the quality of life as well as support
career advancement for staff in the education sector, and particularly at the
Tertiary levels, the Federal Government introduced a loan scheme that enables
academic and non-academic staff of Nigeria’s universities, polytechnics, and
colleges of education to access up to ₦10.00 million to enhance their welfare and
professional development. The scheme, known as the Tertiary Institution Staff
Support Fund (TISSF), will be capped at 33.30 per cent of an applicant’s gross
annual salary.

Furthermore, the Federal Executive Council, (FEC), approved ₦493.00 billion for
two critical infrastructure projects; the upgrading of the Kano–Katsina Road and
the construction of a new Carter Bridge in Lagos State.


Education
Transportation

23 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Provisional data showed that fiscal space improved in Q32025, as federally
collected revenue rose by 43.56 per cent from the level in the preceding quarter,
with non-oil sources contributing 70.50 per cent of the total. Consequently,
allocations to the three tiers of government increased by 23.80 per cent. The
consolidated public debt as at end-June 2025 stood at ₦152.40 trillion (33.98% of
GDP) and was below the national debt ceiling of 40.00 per cent and 70.00 per cent
threshold for Market-Access Countries.
2.2.1
Federation Account Operations
Gross federation revenue increased relative to the preceding quarter, on account
of higher oil and non-oil receipts. Provisional gross federation revenue rose by
43.56 per cent to ₦11.93 trillion, driven largely by higher receipts from corporate
tax and crude oil & gas exports. The non-oil revenue remained dominant,
accounting for 70.50 per cent of gross federation revenue, while oil revenue
constituted the balance.
Non-oil revenue, rose to ₦8.41 trillion, and was 65.84 per cent above the level in
the preceding quarter. The increase was attributed to higher collections from
corporate tax2 and value added tax, reflecting seasonality in tax return filings by
companies. At ₦3.52 trillion, oil revenue rose by 8.67 per cent, relative to Q22025,
owing to higher receipts from crude oil & gas exports, royalties, and petroleum
profit tax.
Figure 19: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance


2 Corporate tax comprises company income tax, withholding tax and capital gains tax.
Oil
3,237.39
3,518.11
Non-Oil
5,069.65
8,407.46
Federally
Collected
Revenue
8,307.04
11,925.57
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Summary
Federation Revenue

24 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 20: Contribution to Federation Revenue

Source: Staff Estimates Based on data from the OAGF and FMoF


29.50%
70.50%
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil
Revenue

25 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Table 6: Federation Revenue and Distribution (₦ Billion)

Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties
632.49 1,657.86
1,869.61
3,432.55
Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax
1,991.47 1,659.81
4,931.94
2,332.44
Customs & Excise Duties
853.58 1,000.93
990.53
1,549.34
Value-Added Tax (VAT)
1,761.36 2,022.70
2,088.72
1,875.40
Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others*

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers**

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: The Office of the Accountant General of the Federation.
Note* Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information
Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue, and
other non-regular earnings.
**Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls, while transfers entail provisions
for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue.
/1 Provisional.


26 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025

Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
*Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers***

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation.
Note* Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information
Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue, and
other non-regular earnings. **Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls,
while transfers entail provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue.
/1 Provisional.

From the federally collected revenue of ₦11.93 trillion, a net balance of ₦6.09
trillion was shared among the three tiers of government after accounting for
statutory deductions and transfers. The net disbursement was 23.80 per cent
above the level in the preceding quarter. The Federal, state, and local
governments received ₦2.22 trillion, ₦1.99 trillion, and ₦1.46 trillion,

27 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
respectively, while the balance of ₦0.42 trillion was allocated to the 13%
derivation fund for oil-producing states.
Figure 21: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q32025 (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance

Figure 22: Bottom-Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q32025 (₦Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance
In terms of revenue allocation to subnational governments, Lagos State topped
the list with ₦307.12 billion, followed by Delta (₦222.98 billion), Rivers (₦204.72
billion), Akwa Ibom (₦187.04 billion), and Bayelsa (₦160.14 billion). On the other
hand, Ebonyi (₦65.94 billion), Nasarawa (₦66.15 billion), Gombe (₦66.16 billion),
Ekiti (₦68.23 billion), and Kwara (₦70.98 billion) were ranked the bottom-five
recipients. The variation in allocation was attributed to differences in the scale of
economic activity, population size, resource endowment, among other indices.

Lagos
Delta
Rivers
Akwa-Ibom
Bayelsa

Kwara
Ekiti
Gombe
Nassarawa
Ebonyi

28 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Consolidated public debt stock remained below the national ceiling of 40.00 per
cent and the 70.00 per cent of GDP threshold prescribed for Market Access
Countries. At end-June 2025, consolidated public debt outstanding stood at
₦152.40 trillion (33.98% of GDP), indicating a 2.01 per cent increase compared
with the level at end-March 2025, due to new borrowings. A breakdown showed
that domestic debt accounted for 52.86 per cent, while external debt constituted
47.14 per cent. Of the consolidated public debt stock, FGN owed ₦148.43 trillion
(97.40%), while state governments owed the balance.
A disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was ₦76.59 trillion,
constituting 51.60 per cent, while external debt constituted ₦71.85 trillion
(48.40%). Further analysis revealed that FGN bonds maintained its dominance of
FGN domestic debt, with 79.18 per cent, followed by treasury bills (16.67%),
promissory notes (2.26%), FGN Sukuk (1.69%), and Others3 constituting the
balance. Of the total external debt stock, multilateral debt accounted for 49.36
per cent, while commercial and bilateral loans constituted 37.43 and 13.21 per
cent, respectively.
Despite the increase in the public debt stock, debt service at end-June 2025
dropped by 34.05 per cent to ₦3.13 trillion, from ₦4.75 trillion at end-March
2025, largely, due to the timing and structure of debt repayments. A breakdown
showed that domestic debt service constituted 54.50 per cent, while external debt
service accounted for 45.50 per cent.
Figure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Compositions (₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office


3 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
FGN External Debt
FGN Domestic Debt
Public Debt

29 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 24: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 25: Composition of External Debt Stock

Source: Debt Management Office


FGN Bonds
Treasury Bills
FGN SUKUK
Promisory Notes
Others
Multilateral,
49.36%
Bilateral, 13.21%
Commercial,
37.43%

30 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.3
Monetary and Financial Developments
Broad money supply (M3) grew moderately at end-September 2025, driven,
wholly, by net foreign assets (NFA). Credit to other sectors remained subdued, as
the Bank sustained its commitment to reining-in inflation. Activities increased in
the fixed-income market, reflecting the relatively high yields and ample banking
system liquidity. Notwithstanding the increased liquidity, key money market rates
rose slightly, but oscillated within the policy corridor. The Nigerian capital market
sustained its bullish performance, driven by strong corporate earnings, heightened
investor participation and stable macroeconomic conditions that boosted
confidence and trading activity. Overall, the financial sector remained stable and
resilient, as reflected by key prudential indicators.

2.3.1
Monetary Developments
The Monetary base grew at end-September 2025, relative to its level at endDecember 2024, driven wholly by the rise in liabilities to Other Depository
Corporations (ODCs). The monetary base rose by 21.27 per cent to ₦39.62 trillion,
from ₦32.67 trillion at end-December 2024. The increase was steered by 27.31
per cent growth in liabilities to ODCs, supported by expansions in excess reserves
(778.98%) and required reserves (6.22%). Currency-in-circulation (CIC), however,
declined by 8.97 per cent, reflecting the Bank’s restrictive monetary policy stance.
Figure 26: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Sept-25
₦ Trillion
Currency in Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Monetary Base
M3 Multiplier (RHS)
Reserve Money
Summary

31 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 27: Reserve Money Growth Over end-December

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Relative to the level at end-December 2024, broad money supply (M3) expanded
by 3.91 per cent to ₦117.78 trillion, compared with the 3.44 per cent in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, M2 and M1 grew by 3.91 and 0.76 per cent to
₦117.77 trillion and ₦39.11 trillion, respectively, compared with 3.44 and 2.71 per
cent in the preceding quarter.
On the asset side, the growth in M3 was driven, solely, by 30.35 per cent increase
in net foreign assets (NFA), which contributed 8.56 percentage points to overall
growth in M3 and outweighed the 6.48 per cent contraction in net domestic assets
(NDA). The decline in NDA was due to the 10.99 and 7.04 per cent decrease in net
claims on central government and claims on other sectors, respectively.
Furthermore, the reduction in claims on other sectors reflected the decrease in
claims on the private sector (8.55%), other financial corporations (8.16%) and
state and local government (1.94%).


Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Sep-25
Per cent (%)
Liabilities to ODCs
Currency in Circulation
Monetary Base
Money Supply

32 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Table 7: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (per cent)

Sep-24
Dec-24
Jun-

Sep-

Annualis
ed
Sep-25

Targe
t
Contributio
n to M3
growth
(Sep-25)
Net Foreign Assets

Claims on Non-residents

Liabilities to Non-residents

Net Domestic Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on Central
Government

Claims on Central Government

Liabilities to Central
Government


4.87
Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Other Financial
Corporations

Claims on State and Local
Government

Claims on Public Non-financial
Corporations

Claims on Private Sector

Total Monetary Assets
(M3)

Currency Outside
Depository Corporations

Transferable Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than
Shares

Total Monetary Liabilities
(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: The numbers for September 2025 are provisional.

On the liabilities side, the growth in M3 was wholly driven by increases in other
deposits and transferable deposits. Other deposits grew by 5.56 per cent,
contributing 3.65 percentage points to M3 growth, while transferable deposits
rose by 2.83 per cent, contributing 0.84 percentage point. Currency outside
depository corporations (CODCs) and securities-other-than-shares, however, fell
by 12.88 and 46.56 per cent, respectively. These decreases exerted a negative
contribution of 0.59 percentage point on M3 growth (0.58 percentage point from
CODCs and 0.01 percentage point from securities-other-than-shares). The
sustained decline in CODCs depicts continued improvement in the adoption of
electronic and digital payment channels as against cash-based transactions.

33 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.3.2
Sectoral Utilisation of Credit
Total credit by ODCs to the economy declined by 1.93 per cent to ₦57.04 trillion,
from ₦58.16 trillion at end-June 2025, reflecting tight monetary conditions. Credit
to the industry and services sectors declined slightly by 1.86 and 2.19 per cent to
₦22.14 trillion and ₦31.70 trillion, respectively. Further analysis indicated that the
services sector accounted for the largest share of credit at 55.58 per cent, followed
by industry (38.81%) and agriculture (5.61%).
Table 8: Sectoral Credit Allocation
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Consumer credit outstanding fell by 27.17 per cent to ₦3.11 trillion in the review
period, from ₦4.27 trillion at end of the preceding quarter. A disaggregation
indicated that personal and retail loans outstanding decreased by 6.93 and 51.02
per cent to ₦2.15 trillion and ₦0.96 trillion, respectively, from ₦2.31 trillion and
₦1.96 trillion at end-June 2025. In terms of share, personal loans maintained its
dominance, accounting for 69.03 per cent, while retail loans constituted the
balance.


Sectors
Credit Allocation (₦ Trillion)
Share in Total (%)
Sep-24
Jun-25
Sep-25
Sep-24
Jun-25 Sep-25
Agriculture

Industry

Manufacturing

Oil & Gas

Services

Finance, Insurance &
Capital Market

Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL

Sectoral Credit
Utilisation

Consumer
Credit

34 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 28: Consumer Credit Outstanding
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3
Financial Developments
2.3.3.1 Money Market Development
Liquidity in the banking system rose in Q32025, owing, largely, to increased fiscal
injection. Daily average liquidity in the banking system rose by 43.75 per cent to
₦0.23 trillion, from ₦0.16 trillion in Q22025. The increase in system liquidity was
driven, largely, by the 22.76 per cent increase in fiscal injection to ₦6.04 trillion,
from the level in the preceding quarter.
Figure 29: Average Banking System Liquidity (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Activities at the facility windows also mirrored the liquidity condition in the review
quarter, as higher activities were recorded at the standing deposits facility (SDF).
Total placement at the SDF window rose by 68.20 per cent to ₦81.41 trillion with

Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Sep-25
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total

Q32024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Industry Liquidity
Condition

35 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
a daily average of ₦1.27 trillion. Request at the SLF window also increased by
28.71 per cent to ₦10.31 trillion with a daily average of ₦0.28 trillion.
The MPR and the standing facilities corridor were adjusted from 27.50 per cent
and +500/-100 basis points, respectively, to 27.00 per cent and +250/-250 basis
points, at the September 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Thus,
the SLF and SDF rates stood at 29.50 per cent (MPR+2.5%) and 24.50 per cent
(MPR-2.5%). Additionally, the interest rate on converted Intra-day Lending Facility
(ILF) transactions to SLF was reduced to 34.50 per cent (MPR+7.5%).
Figure 30: Transactions at the Standing Facilities Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Open Market Operations (OMO) bills issued in the review quarter were
oversubscribed. The total amount of CBN bills offered, subscribed, and allotted
was ₦3.70 trillion, ₦9.77 trillion, and ₦7.63 trillion (tenors: 83 to 363 days),
compared with ₦5.00 trillion, ₦9.25 trillion, and ₦8.16 trillion, respectively
(tenors: 104 to 350 days) in Q22025. The bid rates averaged 24.00 (±4.00) per
cent, while the stop rates averaged 24.25 (±2.25) per cent. A total of ₦3.31 trillion
maturing CBN bills were repaid, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of ₦4.32
trillion.


Q32024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Standing Lending Facility
Standing Deposit Facility
OMO Operations

36 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 31: Open Market Operations (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

NTBs and FGN bonds issued in the review period, were oversubscribed. Total NTBs
(91-, 182- and 364-day tenors) offered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦1.76
trillion, ₦5.37 trillion, and ₦1.90 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦4.95
trillion, ₦10.45 trillion, and ₦5.15 trillion in the preceding quarter. The average
stop rate decreased to 16.35(±1.35) per cent, from 18.47(±1.47) per cent in
Q22025.

Figure 32: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

FGN bonds of 5- and 7-year tranches were offered during the quarter under
review, with the term to maturity ranging from 3 years 9 months to 6 years 11
months. The total amount offered, subscribed, and allotted stood at ₦0.48 trillion,
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Repayment
Q32024

Q12025

Q22025

Q32025

Q32024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Offer

Subscription

Allotment

Repayment


37 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
₦1.83 trillion, and ₦0.89 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦0.75 trillion, ₦1.54
trillion, and ₦0.80 trillion recorded in Q22025. The average bid and marginal rates
were 17.25(±4.75) and 16.85(±1.16) per cent, compared with 18.24(±3.24) and
18.87(±1.12) per cent, respectively, in the preceding quarter.
Figure 33: Primary Market Auctions of FGN Bonds (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Money market rates rose slightly but remained within the policy corridor. The
average interbank call rate (27.74%) and open repo (OPR) rate (27.90%) rose by
0.94 and 0.70 percentage points (pp), respectively, relative to the levels in
Q22025.
Figure 34: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: OPR = Open Repo rate which was formally referred to as Open Buy Back (OBB) rate
Q32024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Offer

Subscription

Allotment

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Interbank Call
OPR
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor
Interest Rate
Developments

38 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025

The average lending and deposit rates indicated divergent trends in the review
quarter. Average prime lending rate (PLR) increased by 0.59 pp to 18.77 per cent,
while maximum lending rate (MLR) declined by 0.39 pp to 29.43 per cent.
Weighted average term deposit (WAVTD) rate rose by 0.58 pp to 10.51 per cent
from the level in the preceding quarter. Consequently, the average spread
between the maximum lending rate and the WAVTD rate narrowed to 18.92 pps,
from 19.89 pps in the preceding quarter.


39 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 35: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate.

2.3.3.2 Capital Market Developments
The Nigerian capital market sustained its bullish performance in Q32025, driven by
improved corporate earnings, higher investor participation, and macroeconomic
stability. Aggregate market capitalisation rose by 10.92 per cent to ₦140.57 trillion
in Q32025, from ₦126.73 trillion in Q22025. The performance was on account of
robust corporate earnings releases, and increased trading activity from retail and
institutional investors. This positive trajectory was further supported by
favourable macroeconomic fundamentals and improved investor outlook on the
domestic economy.
The market capitalisation of the equities segment rose by 19.03 per cent to
₦90.40 trillion in Q32025 from ₦75.95 trillion in Q22025. The Exchange Traded
Funds (ETFs) increased by 4.27 per cent to ₦26.89 billion from ₦25.79 billion. In
contrast, the fixed income segment contracted by 1.20 per cent to ₦50.14 trillion
compared with ₦50.75 trillion in the preceding quarter, signaling portfolio switch
toward equities. In terms of proportion, equities accounted for 64.31 per cent of
total market capitalisation, while fixed income and ETFs comprised 35.67 per cent
and 0.02 per cent, respectively.
The All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 18.95 per cent to 142,710.48 from 119,978.57 in
the preceding quarter. The ASI rallied on the back of robust corporate earnings
across key sectors, improved market liquidity, and elevated risk-on sentiment
among investors. Momentum was further reinforced by value-driven
accumulation in undervalued mid- to large-cap stocks and tactical portfolio

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Percentage point
Per cent
PLR
MLR
WATD
Spread (RHS)
Market Capitalisation
NGX All- Share
Index

40 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
rebalancing toward growth-oriented equities, underpinned by favourable
monetary policy and a stable macroeconomic environment.
Figure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Sectoral indices across the Nigerian equities market reflected a strong bullish
momentum and sustained investor participation across key sectors. Market
breadth remained firmly positive, as gainers outweighed losers, underscoring
improved demand for stocks and robust market sentiment in the equities space.
Consequently, the NGXGROWTH led the rally, rising by 60.05 per cent, followed
by NGXINS and NGXINDUSTR, which recorded 57.65 and 39.32 per cent increases,
respectively. Conversely, NGXASEM shed 3.57 per cent, compared with the level
in the preceding quarter.


Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q42024 Q12025 Q22025 Q32025
₦ Trillion
Index points
Aggregate Market Capitalisation (RHS)
All-Share Index (LHS)

41 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 37: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Sectoral Indices

Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

Table 9: Nigerian Exchange Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indices
Q22025
Q32025
Change (%)
NGXASEM
1,595.12
1,538.10
-3.57
NGXSOVBND
653.01
657.27
0.65
NGXOILGAS
2,437.47
2,523.05
3.51
NGXCOMMDTY
1,047.21
1,121.70
7.11
NGXAFRHDYI
19,489.91
22,176.23
13.78
NGXPENSION
5,798.71
6,724.36
15.96
NGXCG
3,436.94
4,038.18
17.49
NGX30
4,423.04
5,211.19
17.82
NGXPREMIUM
11,576.85
13,682.97
18.19
NGXBNK
1,280.41
1,514.11
18.25
NGXAFRBVI
2,957.78
3,526.63
19.23
NGXMAINBOARD
5,888.97
7,026.94
19.32
NGXMERIVAL
11,150.56
13,361.63
19.83
NGXMERIGRW
8,149.49
9,827.09
20.59
NGXPENBRD
2,179.87
2,646.28
21.40
NGXCNSMRGDS
2,635.86
3,370.91
27.89
NGXLOTUSISLM
9,229.65
11,858.00
28.48
NGXINDUSTR
3,638.15
5,068.68
39.32
NGXINS
755.52
1,191.04
57.65
NGXGROWTH
9,420.18
15,077.11
60.05
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Trading activity on the Nigerian Exchange strengthened, as transaction value
surged by 134.98 per cent to ₦2.20 trillion from ₦0.94 trillion in Q22025. Similarly,
trade volume expanded by 129.22 per cent to 79.24 billion shares from 34.57
billion shares, while the total number of deals increased by 94.54 per cent to


42 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
1,910,473 deals from 982,055 deals in the preceding quarter, reflecting improved
investor participation and liquidity in the equities market.

Figure 38: Volume and Value of Traded Securities
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

A total of 13 securities were listed on the Exchange in the review period,
comprising six new listings and seven supplementary offerings. This was lower
than the 20 listings recorded in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, there were two
suspensions, two reinstatements of previously suspended issuers and one
delisting in the review period.


Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Shares (Billion)
N Trillion
Volume of traded securities
Value of traded securities

43 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Table 10: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian Exchange Limited
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited
Notes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not
available.


2.3.4 Financial Soundness Indicators
The Nigerian banking sector remained resilient and stable in the review period as
key Financial Soundness Indicators were largely within the prudential regulatory
benchmarks. The liquidity ratio (LR) increased to 63.24 per cent from 55.00 per
cent in Q22025 and was well above the 30.00 per cent regulatory benchmark. This
underscores the industry’s ability to meet short-term obligations and continued
capacity for financial intermediation. Similarly, the industry’s capital adequacy
ratio (CAR) at 11.66 per cent, was 1.66 percentage points above the regulatory
minimum of 10.00 per cent, but was below 13.43 per cent in the preceding
quarter. At this level, the CAR remained strong, underscoring the sector’s robust
solvency capacity to absorb credit and market shocks. However, the nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio edged up by 2.09 percentage points to 7.72 per cent,
above the prudential limit of 5.00 per cent. Notwithstanding, the overall asset
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
16.121% FGS JUN 2027
875,062 units
New listing
17.121% FGS JUN 2028
3,130,241units
New listing
Craneburg EKSG Motorway
Company Plc
32,500,000
units
New listing
15.762% FGS JUL 2027
853,822 units
New listing
16.762% FGS JUL 2028
3,413,688 units
New listing
Coronation Infrastructure
Fund
87,900,000 units
New listing
Guaranty Trust Holding
Company Plc
2,288,250,000 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each
at N70.00 per share
Supplementary
listing
Chams Holding Company Plc
2,348,030,000 units of Ordinary Shares of 50
Kobo
each at ₦1.70 Per Share
Supplementary
listing
Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria
Infrastructure Debt Fund
(NIDF)
270,382 Units
Supplementary
listing
Industrial & Medical Gases
Nigeria Plc
199,797,458 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
at ₦32.00
per share
Supplementary
listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
4,705,000 units
Supplementary
listing
19.89% FGN MAY 2033
295,988,655 units
Supplementary
listing
FCMB Group Plc
3,166,284,712 ordinary shares
Supplementary
listing
MRS Oil Nigeria Plc
All units
Suspended
International Energy
Insurance Plc
All units
Suspended
Universal Insurance Plc
All units
Suspension lifted
Regency Alliance Insurance
Plc
All units
Suspension lifted
Notore Chemical Industries
Plc
All units
Delisted

44 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
quality remained broadly stable, as the sector remains resilient and adequately
robust to ensure financial system stability.
Figure 39: Key Financial Soundness Indicators
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


CAR
NPL
LR
Benchmark
Sept-25
Jun-25

45 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025

2.4
External Sector Developments
The external sector’s performance in Q32025 was shaped by heightened global
policy uncertainty, volatile energy-market conditions and geopolitical tensions.
Despite the headwinds, the external sector remained resilient, recording surpluses
in the overall balance of payments and current account positions. The financial
account recorded a net lending position, against a net borrowing position in the
preceding period. At US$42.77 billion, external reserves rose relative to the
preceding period and could cover 8.31 months of import for goods and services or
12.62 months for goods only. The average exchange rate at the Nigerian Foreign
Exchange Market (NFEM) was ₦1,521.11/US$, compared with ₦1,581.06/US$ in
Q22025.

2.4.1
Current and Capital Account
The current and capital account was in surplus in Q32025, albeit lower than the
preceding quarter. The surplus in the current and capital account declined to
US$3.42 billion (4.44% of GDP), from US$5.81 billion (8.96% of GDP) in the
preceding quarter, due to wider deficits in the primary income and services
accounts.

Figure 40: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Merchandise imports increased, due largely to higher imports of both non-oil and
petroleum products. Merchandise imports rose to US$10.30 billion, from US$9.61
billion in the preceding quarter. A disaggregation indicates that the import of nonoil products rose to US$7.08 billion from US$6.68 billion in the preceding quarter,
reflecting stronger demand for raw materials and machinery in line with sustained

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Merchandise
Import
Summary
Current and
Capital Account

46 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
growth in economic activity. Similarly, import of petroleum products increased to
US$3.22 billion, from US$2.93 billion in the preceding quarter, to further augment
domestic supply. In terms of share, non-oil imports continued to dominate
merchandise imports, accounting for 68.74 per cent of the total, while oil imports
constituted the balance.

Figure 41: Imports by Classification
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The deficit in the services account widened, largely, on account of higher outpayments. The deficit increased to US$4.07 billion, from US$3.74 billion in the
preceding quarter. Total services payments rose by 11.02 per cent to US$5.34
billion in Q32025, driven by increases across major components. Payments for
transport and travel services rose by 7.10 per cent and 6.51 per cent to US$1.66
billion and US$1.80 billion, respectively.
Similarly, payments for insurance and pension services increased to US$0.36
billion, from US$0.24 billion in the preceding quarter. Payments for financial
services and telecommunications services recorded sharp increases of 53.19 per
cent and 58.55 per cent, rising to US$0.18 billion and US$0.14 billion, respectively.
In addition, payments for government services grew by 14.53 per cent to US$0.20
billion. Outlays on other business services and personal, cultural, & recreational
services also increased by 1.92 and 231.08 per cent, respectively, to US$0.90
billion and US$0.01 billion.
In terms of composition of services payments, travel services accounted for the
largest share at 33.78 per cent, followed by transport (31.02%), other business
services (16.80%), and insurance & pension services (6.73%). Financial services
Industrial sector ,
35.17%
Food
products ,
13.79%
Manufactured
products ,
19.08%
Oil sector ,
26.90%
Minerals , 0.46%
Transport, 3.22%
Agriculture ,
1.38%
Services

47 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
accounted for 3.40 per cent, while government services and telecommunications
services accounted for 3.68 and 2.68 per cent respectively. Other categories of
services accounted for the balance.
Figure 42: Share of Service Out-Payments

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from the export of services grew by 17.59 per cent to US$1.27 billion,
driven largely by higher earnings from financial services. A breakdown indicates
that receipts from financial services increased to US$0.30 billion, from US$0.20
billion in Q22025. Similarly, earnings from travel services rose to US$0.14 billion
from US$0.09 billion, while earnings from transport services increased to US$0.61
billion from US$0.58 billion in the preceding quarter. Receipts from ‘government
services’ also grew by 4.10 per cent to US$0.13 billion, while earnings from
insurance and pension services increased by 10.77 per cent to US$0.04 billion.
Receipts from other business services rose by 2.37 per cent to US$0.03 billion. In
contrast, earnings from telecommunications services declined by 5.15 per cent to
US$0.02 billion relative to Q22025.
The composition of receipts from services showed that transport services
accounted for the largest share at 47.93 per cent, followed by financial services
(23.58%), travels (10.98%), government services (10.15%), insurance and pension
services (3.41%) other business services (2.21%) and telecommunications services
(1.74%).

Transportation, 31.02
Travels, 33.78
Other business
services, 16.8
Insurance and
pension, 6.73
Financial services, 3.4
Telecommunication,
2.68
Government services,
3.68
Others, 1.91

48 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Figure 43: Share of Services Receipts
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The primary income account recorded a wider deficit in Q32025, due to higher
dividend payments. The deficit increased to US$2.95 billion, from US$1.25 billion
in the preceding quarter, due largely to higher dividend payments on direct
investment liabilities. The investment income sub-account recorded a higher
deficit of US$3.04 billion from US$1.33 billion in Q22025, while the surplus in the
compensation of employees sub-account increased to US$0.09 billion from
US$0.08 billion in the preceding quarter.
Figure 44: Primary Income Balance

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
The surplus in the secondary income account moderated, due to a marginal decline
in remittances inflow. The surplus in the secondary income account declined by
0.25 per cent to US$5.50 billion, compared with US$5.51 billion in the preceding
Government
services
10.15%
Transportation
47.93%
Travels
10.98%
Financial services
23.58%
Telecommunicati
on
1.74%
Other business
services
2.21%
Insurance and
pension

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025

US$ Billion
Primary Income
Secondary Income

49 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
quarter. The development was due to a marginal decline in the inflow of
remittances to US$5.24 billion from US$5.30 billion in Q22025.

Figure 45: Secondary Income Balance (US$ Billion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2
Financial Account
The financial account recorded a net lending position in the review quarter,
reflecting a significant accretion in reserve assets. A net acquisition of financial
assets of US$0.32 billion was recorded, in contrast to the net incurrence of
financial liabilities of US$6.90 billion in Q22025.
The economy recorded a lower net incurrence of financial liabilities worth US$4.07
billion, compared with US$6.95 billion in the preceding quarter, due to lower
inflow of portfolio debt securities. A disaggregation shows that portfolio
investment liabilities fell to US$2.11 billion, from US$5.04 billion in the preceding
quarter. Similarly, ‘other investment’ liabilities declined to US$0.84 billion, from
US$1.58 billion in Q22025, attributed to reduction in other accounts
receivable/payable of deposit taking corporations. Conversely, direct investment
liabilities increased to US$0.72 billion, compared with US$0.09 billion in the
preceding quarter, driven mainly by higher reinvested earnings.
A higher net acquisition of financial assets worth US$4.39 billion was recorded in
Q32025, compared with US$0.05 billion in the preceding quarter, due to an
accretion in reserve assets. Portfolio investment assets also recorded a net
acquisition of US$0.82 billion, compared with a disposal of US$0.65 billion in
Q22025, reflecting purchases of debt securities by resident investors. Conversely,

Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Secondary income balance
Remittances
Government transfers
Net Acquisition of
Assets
Net Incurrence of
Liability
Financial Account

50 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
direct investment assets recorded a net disposal of US$0.16 billion, compared with
an acquisition of US$0.99 billion in the preceding quarter, due to a drawdown of
reinvested earnings. In addition, ‘other investment’ assets recorded a higher net
disposal of US$0.84 billion, from US$0.02 billion in the preceding quarter,
reflecting withdrawals of foreign currency and deposits by residents.
2.4.3
External Debt
Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-June 2025 stood at US$46.98 billion (19.32%
of GDP). A disaggregation showed that multilateral loans at US$23.19 billion,
constituted 49.36 per cent of total external debt. Commercial borrowings
(Eurobonds) accounted for US$17.32 billion (36.86%), while bilateral loans from
sovereign sources amounted to US$6.20 billion (13.21%). Other loans accounted
for the balance.
Total external debt service obligations as at end-June 2025 stood at US$0.93
billion. Principal repayments accounted for US$0.56 billion, or 60.22 per cent of
the total, interest payments at US$0.36 billion, represented 38.71 per cent, while
other associated charges accounted for the balance. A disaggregated analysis of
interest payments indicated that commercial debt instruments were the major
source of debt service payments, with interest payments on Eurobonds amounting
to US$0.26 billion, or 72.22 per cent of total. Payments to multilateral creditors
stood at US$0.09 billion (25.00%), while interest on bilateral debt obligations
accounted for the balance.

2.4.4
International Investment Position (IIP)
The international investment position recorded a higher net financial liability of
US$66.37 billion. The stock of financial assets rose to US$121.56 billion, from
US$116.75 billion in the preceding quarter, driven majorly by the accretion to
reserve assets. Portfolio investment assets increased by 19.56 per cent to US$5.00
billion, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter. Reserve assets also rose to
US$42.77 billion from US$37.81 billion in Q22025. Conversely, ‘other investment’
assets decreased to US$55.74 billion from US$56.26 billion, while the stock of
direct investment also declined by 2.46 per cent to US$17.85 billion in the
preceding quarter.
The stock of financial liabilities increased to US$187.94 billion from US$181.94
billion, in the preceding quarter, majorly on account of an 8.49 per cent increase
in the stock of portfolio investment liabilities to US$44.07 billion. Direct
investment liabilities rose to US$70.99 billion from US$69.64 billion in the
preceding quarter. Other investment liabilities also increased to US$72.73 billion
from US$71.52 billion in the preceding quarter.

External Debt
International
Investment Position

51 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
2.4.5 External Reserves
The external reserves rose relative to the preceding quarter and remained above
the benchmark of 3 months of import cover. The external reserves stood at
US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025, relative to US$37.81 billion at end-June
2025. This level of reserves could cover 8.31 months of imports for goods and
services or 12.62 months for goods only.
Figure 46: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that the shares of the
CBN and the FGN stood at US$39.41 billion and US$3.36 billion, respectively, while
the Federation owned the balance. A disaggregation by holdings showed the
continued dominance of the US dollar at US$33.95 billion or 79.37 per cent. This
was followed by Special Drawing Rights (US$4.31 billion or 10.09%), Chinese yuan
(US$3.41 billion or 7.97%), the euro (US$0.77 billion or 1.79%), British pound
(US$0.33 billion or 0.78%), while other currencies accounted for the balance.

2.4.6
Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
The economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange inflow, driven by lower
outflow through the Bank. The economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange
inflow of US$17.46 billion, compared with US$14.46 billion in the preceding
quarter. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow decreased by 4.17 per cent to
US$26.27 billion, from US$27.41 billion in Q22025. Foreign exchange outflow, at
US$8.80 billion, decreased by 32.01 per cent, relative to US$12.94 billion in the
preceding quarter.
-10
-5

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods) - RHS
Months of Import (Goods & Services) - RHS
International Reserves
Reserves Structure &
Composition
Foreign Exchange
Flows

52 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
Foreign exchange inflow through the Bank increased by 3.56 per cent to
US$10.038 billion, from US$10.02 billion, while autonomous inflow fell by 8.62 per
cent to US$15.89 billion, from US$17.39 billion in the preceding quarter.
Foreign exchange inflow through the Bank decreased by 47.56 per cent to US$5.21
billion, from US$9.93 billion, while autonomous inflow declined by 8.62 per cent
to US$15.89 billion, from US$17.39 billion in the preceding quarter.
Outflows through the Bank decreased by 47.39 per cent to US$5.21 billion, from
US$9.82 billion, while outflow through autonomous sources increased by 19.34
per cent to US$3.59 billion, from US$3.01 billion in the preceding quarter.
Consequently, a net inflow of US$5.17 billion was recorded through the Bank,
compared with US$0.09 billion in Q22025, while a net inflow of US$12.30 billion
was recorded for autonomous sources, compared with US$14.38 billion.
Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Q32024
Q22025
Q32025
Inflow
23.06
27.41
26.27
Outflow
7.93
12.94
8.80
Netflow


53 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
The average turnover at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) increased
by 5.16 per cent to US$404.82 million, compared with US$384.94 million in
Q22025, reflecting increased trading activities in the market.

Figure 48: Turnover in the NFEM

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.


2.4.7
Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate of the naira to the US dollar at the NFEM was
₦1,521.11/US$, compared with ₦1,581.06/US$ in Q22025. This represented a
3.94 per cent appreciation in the value of the naira during the review period.


Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Per cent
US$ Million
Average Turnover (LHS)
Rate of Turnover (RHS)
Average Exchange
Rate
Average Turnover

54 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2025
3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1
Global Outlook
The growth of the global economy is expected to slow in 2025, due to trade-related
distortions. Global growth is projected at 3.20 per cent in 2025 from 3.30 per cent
in 2024, reflecting prolonged uncertainty, protectionism, and labour supply
shocks.
Growth in AEs is projected to slow to 1.60 per cent in 2025 from 1.80 per cent in
2024, driven by weaker demand and declining business sentiment mainly in US,
France, UK and Spain. Similarly, growth in EMDEs is projected to slow to 4.20 per
cent in 2025 from 4.30 per cent, owing to geopolitical tension, policy uncertainty
and a decline in concessional financing & aids.
Global inflation is anticipated to ease further and projected to reach 4.20 per cent
in 2025, from 5.80 per cent in 2024. The outlook is hinged on cooling demand,
easing energy prices and softer inflation expectation.
3.2
Domestic Outlook
The Nigerian economy is projected to remain robust and resilient in the medium
term. The outlook is supported by ongoing fiscal and structural reforms that are
beginning to strengthen macroeconomic stability and restore investor confidence.
Continued improvements in security across oil-producing regions are expected to
increase crude oil output, while the continued implementation of FX reforms are
anticipated to enhance capital inflows and reinforce the external sector. However,
the outlook could be tempered by security challenges, elevated input cost, and
external shocks.
Inflation is expected to moderate further in the medium term. The projected
decline reflects the lagged effect of monetary tightening, greater stability in the
foreign exchange market, and improved security conditions across major
agricultural zones. Nevertheless, risks remain, including potential exchange rate
pressures, rising energy costs and external shocks.
The near- to medium-term fiscal outlook remains optimistic, underpinned by
ongoing reforms targeted at fiscal consolidation, particularly revenue
enhancement. The passage of the Nigeria Tax Act further strengthens revenue
prospects, providing a legal framework for improved compliance, expanded tax
coverage, and more efficient collection mechanisms. However, global crude oil
prices and domestic crude oil production falling below budget benchmarks, and
uncertainties surrounding global trade could undermine the fiscal outlook.