QUARTERLY
ECONOMIC
REVIEW


MARCH 2016

RESERVE BANK OF ZIMBABWE

CONTENTS

4. MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS, INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL
STATISTICAL TABLES

List of Figures

List of Tables


1.
OVERVIEW

Global economic recovery continued, albeit at
a slow pace during the first quarter of 2016.
Renewed episodes of global asset market
volatility, coupled with the loss of growth
momentum in advanced economies, and
continuing headwinds for emerging market and
low income economies point to a modest
economic growth projection of 3.2% for 2016.


In Zimbabwe, activity in the manufacturing
sector remained depressed during the first
quarter of 2016. The performance of the sector
mirrored the subdued economic activity across
other sectors of the economy. Capacity
utilisation also remained low.

Mining sector activity is expected to spur
growth in 2016, with most minerals having
registered positive performance in the first
quarter of 2016. Coal and diamonds, however,
recorded declines during the first quarter of
2016, compared to the quarter ending
December 2015.

In concomitance with the slowdown in
economic activity, the Zimbabwe Stock
Exchange (ZSE) was largely bearish during the
first quarter of 2016. The industrial index
slumped by 17.24 points to end the first quarter
of 2016 at 97.61 points, while the resources
index lost 4.37 points to close at 19.35 points.
Market
capitalisation
declined
from
US$3.07 billion during the final quarter of
2015, to US$2.65 billion during the first
quarter of 2016.

Total merchandise exports and imports
declined by 12.6% and 11.1% respectively,
during the first quarter of 2016. The decline in
exports was largely on account of reduced
tobacco and gold exports. Accounting for the
decline in total imports was a decline in imports
of diesel, petrol, maize and medicines.

The total value of transactions processed
through the National Payment Systems (NPS)
in the first quarter of 2016 stood at
US$13.47 billion. This compares with the
US$15.09 billion recorded in the final quarter
of 2015.

Developments in the financial corporations
sector led to a 6.15% growth in broad money
supply, from US$4 765.4 million in the fourth
quarter of 2015, to US$4 916.8 million in the
first quarter of 2016. On a year on year basis,
broad money supply grew by 12.50%, from
US$4 340.2 million in March 2015, to
US$4 765.4 million in March 2016.

2.
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTS
The world economy continues on a recovery
trajectory, albeit at a slower and fragile pace.
The slow recovery in global economic activity
thus far in 2016, has largely been typified by
renewed episodes of global asset market
volatility, loss of growth momentum in
advanced economies and attendant challenges
in
emerging
market
and
low
income
economies. Reflecting the moderating effects
of these downside risks, the global economy is
projected to modestly grow by 3.2% in 2016
(IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2016).

Growth in the global economy is projected to
rebound to 3.5% in 2017, underpinned by
modest recovery in advanced economies.
Table 1 shows global economic growth
developments and projections.

Table 1: Global Economic Growth and
Outlook (%)

(Proj)

(Proj)
World Output

Advanced Economies

US

Japan

Emerging Market &
Developing Economies

China

India

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zimbabwe

Latin America & the
Caribbean

Source: World Economic Outlook Update (April 2016), Ministry of
Finance and Economic Development and RBZ projections


Advanced Economies
Advanced economies are expected to continue
registering
modest
growth
in
2016,
consolidating
gains
attained
in
2015.
Unfavourable
demographic
trends,
low
productivity growth and the inherited risks
from recent episodes of global financial crises,
have, however, dampened efforts to attain rapid
and broad-based growth.
Although an accommodative monetary policy
has been adopted to stimulate aggregate
demand,
slackening
external
demand,
exchange rate appreciation and tighter financial
conditions, in developed countries in general
and the United States in particular, are likely to
constrain the recovery process.
United States
The US economy is projected to grow by 2.4%
in 2016, with strengthening balance sheets,
absence of fiscal drag and an improving
housing market expected to support the
rebound of economic activity in 2017. These
factors are expected to offset the adverse
repercussions accompanying the appreciation
of the US dollar, incessant declines in energy
investment, weaker manufacturing and tighter
domestic conditions for oil and gas and related
industries. In view of the aging population and
low total factor productivity, long term US
growth prospects remain weak.
Euro Zone
The modest recovery in Eurozone economies is
projected to persist in 2016 and 2017, largely
benefitting from lower energy prices, modest

fiscal expansion, and supportive financial
conditions.

Economic activity in Eurozone economies is
expected to remain subdued on account of the
effects of the high private and public debt, low
investment and erosion of skills occasioned
by long-term unemployment. Resultantly,
economic growth in the Euro area is expected
to be 1.5% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017.

Japan
In Japan, economic growth is projected to
remain at 0.5% in 2016, reflecting the benefits
conferred by lower energy prices and recently
instituted fiscal policy measures. Private
demand is expected to favourably respond to
the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing
measures. Growth is, however, projected to
decline to a negative 0.1% in 2017, on the
backdrop
of
scheduled
increases
in
consumption tax rate. Overall, the dwindling of
Japan’s labour force is expected to dampen its
medium to long term growth prospects.

Emerging
Market
and
Developing
Economies
Economic
activity
in
emerging
market
economies is projected to register a modest
growth of 4.1% in 2016, up from 4.0%
registered
in
2015.
This
projection
is
2 percentage points below the region’s average
for the past decade partly reflecting the
slowdown in China as well as the constrained
growth in oil-exporting emerging market
and developing economies. Despite the
deceleration of economic activity in emerging
market and developing economies in the past
decade, the region continues to underpin the
global economic growth momentum. In the
outlook, downside risks to emerging markets
are
likely
to
emanate
from
domestic
vulnerabilities. Additional bouts of exchange
rate depreciations, may further undermine
corporate balance sheets. In addition, sharp
declines in capital inflows could force a rapid
compression in domestic demand.
Sub-Saharan Africa
On the back of the constrained commodity
absorptive capacity in emerging market
economies, notably China, growth in SubSaharan Africa is projected to decline from
3.4% in 2015 to 3% in 2016. Economic activity
is, however, projected to rebound to 4% in
2017, concomitant with the projected recovery
in commodity prices. Economic activity in
Sub-Saharan Africa will be adversely affected
by the downturn in international commodity
prices in 2016.

Commodity Price Developments
Commodity prices generally declined over the
recent past mainly on account of weakening
growth prospects in China, the world’s largest
metal
consumer.
This
notwithstanding,
commodity prices recovered modestly during
the first quarter of 2016, on the backdrop of the
transient stabilisation of global markets as
shown in Table 2.

Table 2: International Commodity Prices

Jan
Feb
Mar
% Change
(Jan-Mar)
Gold
US$/oz

Platinum
US$/oz

Copper
US$/ton

Nickel
US$/ton

Crude Oil
US$/ barrel

Source: Bloomberg, 2016

Brent Crude Oil
Crude oil prices which declined to record low
levels in January 2016, recovered steadily to
average US$39.68/barrel in March 2016.
Recent discussions among major oil
producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia,
Venezuela and Qatar) to curtail crude oil
production shored up oil prices. The increase
was, however, moderated by strong supply
from OPEC members and subdued growth in
aggregate demand. Figure 1 shows the
movement in crude oil prices.


Figure 1: Brent Crude Oil Prices
(US$/Barrel)


Source: Bloomberg, 2016

In 2016, world oil demand is expected to grow
at a much slower pace, despite the slightly
faster growth of the global economy compared
to 2015.
Base Metals
Base metal prices have been gradually
declining, on account of a slowdown in China
epitomised by a shift away from commodity
intensive investment in the world’s largest
commodity consumer. Nonetheless, a steady
recovery was realised during the first quarter
of 2016, boosted by production cuts and
renewed demand.

During the period January to March 2016,
copper and nickel prices firmed by 10.4% and
2.6%
to
US$4,932.70/tonne
and
US$8,691.43/tonne, respectively. Figure 2
shows base metal price trends during the period
under analysis.

2009 M3
2009 M9
2010 M3
2010 M9
2011 M3
2011 M9
2012 M3
2012 M9
2013 M3
2013 M9
2014 M3
2014 M9
2015 M3
2015 M9
2016 M3

Figure 2: Base Metal Prices (US$/tonne)

Source: Bloomberg, 2016

Metal prices are projected to weaken on
account of both strong supply and weak
demand, especially in China.

Gold and Platinum
Gold prices have been on a downward trend
since 2012 due to the progressive appreciation
of the US dollar, which eroded the metal’s
appeal as an alternative investment asset. In
line with gold prices, platinum prices declined
on the back of subdued activity in the global
automotive industry.

In the recent past, precious metal prices have,
however, stabilised on account of their safe
haven status and the U.S Federal Reserve’s
cautious interest rate outlook. Furthermore,
increased physical demand from Asia is also
supporting precious metal prices.

Gold prices firmed by 13.4% from an average
price of US$1,096.68/oz in January 2016, to
US$1,243.30/oz in March 2016. Similarly,
platinum prices gained by 15.2% from a
monthly average of US$853.65/oz in January
2016, to US$964.31/oz in March, 2016.

Figure 3 shows trends in precious metal prices
since 2010.

Figure 3: Precious Minerals Prices

Source: Bloomberg, 2016


Food Prices
Prices of most food items declined owing to
increased supplies, occasioned by improved
harvests in some cereal producing countries.
International food prices are, however, yet to
fully reflect the adverse weather shocks, as the
high inventory levels provided a cushioning
mechanism. Going forward, food prices are
projected to increase slightly from current
levels, amid weather variability, due to the El
Niño phenomena that affected Southern
African economies in the 2015/2016 farming
season.

10000


2009 M1
2009 M7
2010 M1
2010 M7
2011 M1
2011 M7
2012 M1
2012 M7
2013 M1
2013 M7
2014 M1
2014 M7
2015 M1
2015 M7
2016 M1
Nickel
Copper (RHS)

2010 M1
2010 M8
2011 M3
2011 M10
2012 M5
2012 M12
2013 M7
2014 M2
2014 M9
2015 M4
2015 M11
Gold
Platinum

Figure 4: Food Price Index
Source: Bloomberg, 2016

Merchandise Trade Developments
Total merchandise trade during the first quarter
of 2016 was US$1,954.3 million, compared to
US$2,209.6 million during the first quarter of
2015.
On a quarterly basis, total merchandise trade
also declined from US$2,312.5 million in the
fourth quarter of 2015, to US$1,954.3 million
in the first quarter of 2016.
Merchandise Export Developments
Over the period January to March 2016,
merchandise exports declined by 12.6%, from
US$716.2 million realised in 2015, to
US$626.0 million in 2016, as shown in
Figure 5.


Figure 5: Merchandise Exports (US$ m)
(Jan – March 2016)
Source: Zimstat, 2016

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2015,
exports declined by 27.6% in the first quarter
of 2016, largely on account of declines in
tobacco and gold exports.
Flue-cured tobacco, gold, nickel, diamonds,
ferrochrome and granite continued to dominate
the country’s exports, contributing about
35.1% of export earnings for the period January
to March 2016 (See Table 3).

2010M1
2010M5
2010M9
2011M1
2011M5
2011M9
2012M1
2012M5
2012M9
2013M1
2013M5
2013M9
2014M1
2014M5
2014M9
2015M1
2015M5
2015M9
2016M1
FOOD
BEVERAGES
MAIZE

Table 3: Exports Classified by HS Code
Product
Jan-Mar 2016
(US $m)
Share of
Total (%)
Flue-Cured
Tobacco
219.8
35.1
Gold
176.9
28.3
Nickel ores
and
Concentrates1
55.4
8.9
Industrial
diamonds
27.7
4.4
Ferro-chrome
15.0
2.4
Granite
11.1
1.8
Other
120.0
19.2
Total
626.0
100.0
Source: Zimstat, 2016 & RBZ Calculations, 2016
Major Export Destinations
The country’s major export markets consist of
South Africa, Mozambique, United Arab
Emirates, Zambia, Belgium and Botswana.
Notably, South Africa absorbed 77.8% of the
country’s total merchandise exports during the
first quarter of 2016, followed by Mozambique
(7.9%); United Arabs Emirates (4.8%); Zambia
(4.5%); and Belgium (2.3%). Exports to the
other destinations in the world constituted
2.7% of the total exports in the first quarter of
2016. The country’s major exports to South
Africa include nickel, platinum group of metals
and gold.

1 According to Zimstat, most of the 12 or so metals that constitute
the platinum group of metals (PGMs) are exported under the HS
Merchandise Import Developments
Total merchandise imports for the first quarter
of 2016 amounted to US$1,328.3 million,
representing
an
11.1%
decline
from
US$1,493.4
million
realised
over
the
comparative period in 2015, as shown in Figure
6.
Figure 6: Merchandise Imports (US$ m)
Source: Zimstat, 2016
Similarly, merchandise imports for the first
quarter of 2016 were 8.3% lower, compared to
the fourth quarter of 2015.
The country’s major imports during the period
January to March 2016, mainly comprised of
fuels (diesel and petrol), cereals (maize, rice,
and wheat), soya beans and medicines.
Major Import Sources
During the first quarter of 2016, the country
sourced its imports mainly from South Africa,
35.8%; Singapore, 24.7%; China, 9.5%;
code for nickel & concentrates. As such, the export figure for nickel
& concentrates includes platinum.
1493.4
1328.3

Jan-Mar 2015
Jan-Mar 2016

Zambia, 5.0%; Mozambique, 3.5%; and Japan,
3.5%.
The country continued to source most of its
imports from a few markets, as about 90% of
the imports were acquired from twelve
countries during the first quarter of 2016.
TRADE BALANCE
The merchandise trade developments outlined
above resulted in further deterioration in the
trade balance by 20.5%, from a deficit of
US$583 million registered during the fourth
quarter of 2015, to a deficit of US$702.3
million in the first quarter of 2016, as shown in
Figure 7.
Figure 7: Trade Balance (US$ m)
Source: Zimstat, 2016 & RBZ Computations, 2016
Overall, the country’s trade account continued
to register deficits. These sustained deficits are
reflective of the disproportionate absorption of
imports of finished goods, on the back of
domestic supply-side constraints.
In addition, the country’s export volumes and
revenues were subdued on the back of low
production, lack of competitiveness and the
general downturn in international commodity
prices.
On the back of persistent deficits registered in
the trade account, performance in the current
account will remain constrained in the outlook
period, with adverse implications on the
liquidity situation and economic growth in
particular.
3.
DOMESTIC
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTS
The country is projected to achieve an
economic growth rate of 1.4% in 2016, from
the 1.1% recorded in 2015. The envisaged
economic recovery path continues to be largely
constrained by a myriad of challenges, chief
among them, weak local aggregate demand;
low international commodity prices; lack of
fiscal space; and infrastructural bottlenecks.
REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
REAL GDP
The projected positive growth in 2016, will
largely be driven by mining, finance and
insurance, and construction, among other
service sectors. The poor performance in the
agriculture
sector,
coupled
with
power
generation bottlenecks are, however, expected
to weigh down economic growth in 2016.
AGRICULTURE
The agriculture sector, projected to decline by
9.9% in 2016, was severely affected by the El
Nino induced drought. The phenomenon
resulted in delayed crop planting, reduced area
planted, as well as significant write offs of vast


2015 Q4
2016 Q1
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance

areas, as crops succumbed to moisture stress as
shown in Tables 1 and 2.

Table 1: Area Planted under Cereals
Crop
2015/16
Write
off
Area
Harvested
2014/15
Maize

Sorghum

Pearl
millet

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation
Development, 2016


Table 2: Area Planted for Other Crops
Crop
2015/16
2014/15
Variance (%)
Soya-bean
33 919
36 316
-6.60
Groundnut
190 235
240 904
-21.03
Round-nut
64 432
120 328
-46.45
Sweet
Potato
15 797
33 926
-53.44
Rice

1 167
-60.93
Sunflower
13 105
5 672
131.05
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and
Irrigation Development, 2016

The impact of drought on maize output is
expected to result in a huge food deficit in the
country, which would need to be bridged by
food imports. Maize output for 2016 is
expected to be around 450 000 tonnes, against
a national a requirement of 1 800 000 tonnes,
for both human and livestock consumption.

The resultant deficit of 1.4 million tonnes of
maize up to March 2017, will cost the country
between US$280 million and US$350 million,
depending on the source and price of the
product. The maize import bill will add
pressure to the already constrained fiscal
position.

Table 3: Maize Projection for 2016

2014/2015
Season
2015/2016
Season
Projection
Maize Output
(tonnes)
742 000
450 000
Maize National
Requirement
(tonnes)
1 800 000
1 800 000
Maize Deficit
(tonnes)
1 058 000
1 350 000
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and
Irrigation Development, 2016; RBZ computations,

In view of the above, the Government, private
sector,
Non-Governmental
Organisations
(NGOs) and other cooperating partners are
working towards a comprehensive financing
package for the importation of food. In this
regard, the Reserve Bank mobilised a US$200
million
facility,
for
grain
importation.
Government will import maize for the
underprivileged and for the strategic grain
reserves. The private sector and cooperating
partners will cater for the food requirements for
the rest of the Nation.

The improvement in the rainfall pattern,
towards the end of the season, however,
provided the necessary relief to most livestock
classes, through improvements of pastures and
water availability. This averted further drought
induced
livestock
deaths,
which
had
characterised the first half of the season,

particularly in the southern parts of the country.
The improved rains also salvaged some late
planted or replanted crops, including maize,
sunflower and sugar beans.

Tobacco
The 2016 tobacco selling season commenced
on the 30th March 2016, with total sales of the
crop projected at 170 million kilogram. At the
prevailing average price of US$2.71 per
kilogram, the tobacco crop stands to earn over
US$700 million by September 2016.

In previous marketing seasons, tobacco
merchants made arrangements for prompt cash
payments for tobacco sold through the auction
floors. This required that tobacco sales floors,
merchants and banks made ample preparations
and imported adequate amounts of cash
required beforehand.

In 2016, however, the TIMB and the RBZ
issued new marketing regulations where
proceeds for tobacco sold are paid directly into
farmers’ bank accounts, in line with the
National Financial Inclusion Policy.

Livestock

With respect to livestock husbandry, a survey
carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture,
Mechanisation and Irrigation Development
revealed that about 89% of the beef herd was in
fair to good condition, while 11% was in a poor
state. The condition of grazing and water
availability in Masvingo, Manicaland and
Matabeleland
provinces
had
deteriorated
greatly, leading to cattle mortality of around
22 208 head. Furthermore, the destocking of
cattle in poor condition in drought affected
areas contributed to a decline in cattle
population and an increase in beef output in the
first quarter of 2016, as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Formal Sector Quarterly Cattle
Slaughterings


Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and
Irrigation Development

Milk output, at 16 million litres in the first
quarter of 2016, surpassed production in the
first quarter of 2015 by about 19%. The
performance was also higher than the 14.9
million litres produced during the fourth
quarter of 2015. Figure 9 shows the increasing
trend in quarterly milk output level since the
first quarter of 2015.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1
Cattle
Slaughtered 60716 63365 67170 64667 67331

CATTLE SLAUGHTERED (000)

Figure 9: Quarterly Milk Production


Source: Dairy Services Department, 2016

Government,
through
the
Ministry
of
Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation
Development initiated a programme to mitigate
the impact of drought on livestock. These
measures include the coordination of relief
grazing for cattle in areas affected to adjacent
areas with better grazing in resettlement areas,
State lands and parks areas. Government also
instituted emergency supplementary feeding
for productive stock and encouraged the culling
of non-productive stock.

Despite the occurrence of drought, other
livestock classes including goat and sheep were
found to be in fair to good condition.


MINING

With the exception of diamond and coal, most
minerals
registered positive performance
during the first quarter of 2016, compared to
the same period in 2015. Table 4 shows the
output for selected minerals in 2015 and 2016.

Table 4: Mineral Production

Q3

Q4

Q1

Gold\ kg
5 354
5 798
5 060
Chrome \t
62 281
50 227
-
Coal \t
1 152 499
1 081 630
1 374 250
Nickel \t
4 056
4 135
4 874
Platinum
3 479
3 524
4 321
Palladium
2 823
2 898
3 463
Rhodium

Diamonds
(Carats)
797 979
1 041 279
152 475
Source: MOFED, RBZ, Ministry Of Mines, Chamber of Mines

Gold

Gold output stood at 5 060 kg in the first
quarter of 2016, up from 4 180 kg produced
during the comparable period in 2015. Gold
deliveries continued to benefit from the
increased number of gold buying centers across
the country, the licensing of custom millers in
small scale gold producing areas, as well as
increased compliance by both small scale and
primary producers. These initiatives have to a
large extent managed to plug gold leakages,

2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1
MILK PRODUCTION (MILLION LITRES)

leading to improved deliveries to Fidelity
Printers Refiners (FPR).

Gold performance also benefitted from the
positive developments in international gold
prices, which rose from an average of
US$1 104/ounce in the last quarter of 2015, to
US$1 181/ounce during the first quarter of
2016.

Figure 10 shows gold deliveries to FPR by
primary, small scale miners and gold from
PGMs.

Figure 10: Quarterly gold deliveries by
sector (kg)

Source: Fidelity Printers and Refineries, 2016
Gold production, particularly from the small
scale miners was, however, weighed down by
the cash and liquidity crunch experienced in the
economy
since
February
2016.
As
a
consequence, miners could not get cash for
gold deliveries to the FPR buying centres. It is
believed that some gold could have been
diverted to the black market, where there is
ready cash.
Platinum
Platinum output stood at 4 321 kg in the first
quarter of 2016, up from 3 020 kg registered
during the first quarter of 2015. This was on
account of increased production across all the
producers, as shown in the Figure 11.
Figure 11: Quarterly platinum output (kg)

Source: Chamber of Mines, 2016

Platinum production also responded positively
to the recovery in average international
platinum prices that occurred during the first
quarter of 2016. Platinum prices rose from an
average price of US$908 per ounce during the
fourth quarter of 2015, to US$913 per ounce
during the first quarter of 2016.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Primary Producers
Small Scale Produders
PGMs Gold
Av price(USD/ounce)

Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016
Platinum
Average Price (US$/ounce)

Diamond
Diamond output stood at 152 475 carats in the
first quarter of 2016, compared to 639 377
carats produced during the same period in
2015, as shown in the Figure 12.
Figure 12: Quarterly diamond production
(carats)

Source: Ministry of Mines and Mining Development

Diamond mining at Marange fields is
undergoing a transition, under which the
existing mining firms are being consolidated
into one state-owned Zimbabwe Consolidated
Diamond Company (ZCDC), which now holds
all the diamond claims in the country.
Nickel
Nickel output increased to 4 874 tonnes in the
first quarter of 2016, compared to 4 440 tonnes
produced in the same period in 2015. This was
despite the continued decline in international
nickel prices, which have been on a downward
trend since the beginning of 2015, as shown in
the Figure 13.
Figure 13: Quarterly nickel output
(tonnes)

Source: Chamber of Mines, 2016

Nickel output benefitted from increased
production by the primary producer, Bindura
Nickel Corporation, following the successful
refurbishment of plant and equipment and the
use of the acquired new mobile plant
equipment in 2015.

The significant increase in production of PGMs
in the first quarter of 2016, also supported
nickel output in 2016.


Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Nickel \t
Average Price (US$/t)

MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing sector activities were depressed
during the first quarter of 2016, as business
confidence in the country remained low.
Capacity utilization declined by 2.2 percentage
points, from 36.5% in 2014 to 34.3% in 2015.

The sector’s performance largely mirrored the
subdued economic activity across the country.
Consumers
continued
to
shift
towards
affordable brands of goods and services from
neighboring
markets,
largely
owing
to
weakening of regional currencies against the
US$. Production during the quarter under
review was also depressed, as companies had
built large inventories for the festive season in
the last quarter of 2015, which took time to
clear.


Company Closures
According to data obtained from the Master of
High Court, a total of 6 companies were placed
under judicial management, while 13 were
liquidated during the first quarter of 2016,
compared to 11 and 17, respectively, during the
same period in 2015. Table 5 shows the number
of companies under judicial management and
liquidation during the third quarter of 2015 and
first quarter of 2016.


Table
5:
Companies
under
Judicial
Management & Liquidation
Year

(Q3)

(Q4)

(Q1)
Companies
Under
Judicial Management

Liquidation

Source: Master of High Court, 2016
Retrenchments
During the first quarter of 2016, a total of 949
retrenchments were witnessed, compared to
1 011 over the same period in 2015. Figure 14
shows quarterly retrenchment figures from the
first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2016.

Figure 14: Retrenchments by Quarter

Source: Master of High Court, 2016
The majority of companies cited restructuring
and downsizing as reasons for retrenchments,
while other reasons for retrenchments were
viability challenges, redundancy, judicial
management, rationalisation and outright
closures.

2013:Q1
2013:Q2
2013:Q3
2013:Q4
2014:Q1
2014:Q2
2014:Q3
2014:Q4
2015:Q1
2015:Q2
2015:Q3
2015:Q4
2016:Q1

INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS

Annual headline inflation, which stood at
-2.19% in January 2016, decelerated further,
from -2.22% in February to -2.31% in March
2016. The continued decline in inflation was
driven by both food and non-food inflation,
underpinned by the depreciation of the South
African rand; international oil price slump;
waning domestic demand; as well as continued
downward correction in prices. Figure 15
shows the annual headline inflation profile for
the period January 2014 to March 2016.

Figure 15: Annual Inflation Profile (%)

Source: ZIMSTAT, April 2016


Annual Food Inflation
Annual food inflation decelerated to an average
of -4.0% in the first quarter of 2016, compared
to -3.9% during the previous quarter. Food
inflation was weighed down by declines in the
prices of meat; bread and cereals; milk, cheese
and eggs; oils and fats; and vegetables.

Annual Non Food Inflation
Year-on-year non-food inflation accelerated to
an average of -1.4% in the first quarter of 2016,
compared to -2.2% in the last quarter of 2015.
This was largely on account of an increase in
education.

Declines
in
prices
of
housing,
water,
electricity, gas and other fuels; furniture and
household equipment; transport; clothing and
footwear among others, exerted downward
pressure on non-food inflation, which was in
negative during the period under review.

Regional Inflation

Zimbabwe’s inflation remains the lowest and
the only one in negative territory in the SADC
region, as shown in Table 3.


0.5

Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
(%)

Table 6: Annual Inflation rates (%) for Selected
SADC Countries

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Zimbabwe

South Africa


Botswana
2.8
3.1

3.1

Mozambique

Tanzania

Zambia

Malawi

Source: Country Central Bank Websites, 2016

Inflation Outlook

Inflation is expected to remain broadly subdued
in the outlook period. Downward pressure on
domestic pressure is likely to remain as a result
of the sustained weakening of the South
African rand against the US$ and low
international crude oil prices.

The anticipated increase in electricity and
communication tariffs, as well as upward
movements in food prices, emanating from the
drought induced food shortfalls are expected to
exert an upward impetus on inflation.

FISCAL PERFORMANCE

The Government fiscal outturn indicates that
cumulative revenue for the first quarter of 2016
stood at US$808.36 million, against total
expenditure of US$968.17 million. This
resulted in a deficit of about US$159.81
million, which was partially financed through
domestic borrowing. Government revenue fell
short of the targeted levels of US$920.69
million by about 12%, while expenditure
exceeded budgeted levels by 6.3%, during the
period under review.

In terms of revenue heads, tax revenue
collected during the first quarter of 2016 fell
below target, due to revenue underperformance
associated with subdued economic activities.
Tax revenues, at US$ 726 million, contributed
about 90% to total revenues, while non-tax
revenues accounted for the balance. The
following table shows the performance of the
major revenue heads against the set targets.


Table 7: Performance of Major Revenue
Heads (1st Quarter 2016)
REVENUE
HEAD
ACTUAL
(US$ m)
TARGET
(US$ m)
VARIANCE
(US$ m)
Total
Revenue
808,36
920,70
(112,34)
Tax
revenue
726,40
861,83
(135,43)
Income and
profits
259,67
329,45
(69,78)
Customs
67,79
90,30
(22,51)
Excise
160,45
179,08
(18,64)
VAT
214,60
236,00
(21,40)
Non-Tax
Revenue
81,95
58,86
23,09
Source:
Ministry
of
Finance
and
Economic
Development, 2016


Government expenditure continued to be
heavily skewed towards recurrent spending,
which comprised 99% of total expenditure.
Employment costs at US$734.34 million,

accounted for 76% of recurrent expenditures
and 75% of total Government expenditure.
Figure 16 shows the structure of Government
expenditure by line item for Q1 2016.

Figure 16: Structure of Government
Expenditure (1st Quarter 2016)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development,

2 Broad money supply excludes interbank deposits.
4.
MONETARY
DEVELOPMENTS,
INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL
MARKETS

Money Supply2
Broad
money
grew
by
6.15%,
from
US$4 765.4 million in the fourth quarter of
2015, to US$4 916.8 million, in the first quarter
of 2016. On a year on year basis, money supply
grew by 12.50%, from US$4 340.2 million in
March 2015, to US$4 916.8 million in March
2016.
Figure 17 shows annual broad money supply in
nominal terms as well as growth rates.
Figure 17: Annual Broad Money Supply
Growth Rates and Levels

Source: RBZ, 2016
Recurrent
excl
Employme
nt Costs
21%
Employment Costs ( inc
Pensions)
75%
Capital Expenditure
and Net Lending
1%
Interest
Expenses


US$ Million
Demand
Savings
Under 30-days
Over 30-days
Bond Coins
Annual Growth

Domestic Credit
Domestic credit grew by 0.13%, from
US$5 345.4 million in the last quarter of 2015,
to US$5 542.7 million in the first quarter of
2016. On an annual basis, domestic credit grew
by 23.5% during the first quarter of 2016,
compared to 7.4% during first quarter of 2015.

Credit to the private sector, however, decreased
by 4.12%, from US$3 830.1 million in the
fourth quarter of 2015 to US$3 672.2 million in
the first quarter of 2016. This was a second
consecutive quarterly decline after it shrank by
0.19% in the previous quarter. The decrease
was partially attributed to cautionary lending
by banks as well as liquidity shortages that
have characterised the market during the period
under review.

Interest Rates
During the period under review, lending rates
quoted by most banks remained between 4%
and 22%. The range was in accordance with the
guidelines recommended by the Central Bank
in the Monetary Policy Statement of July 2015.

Average maximum interest rates for 60-day
and 90-day deposits declined from 7.69% and
7.90% to 6.82% and 7.00%, respectively. The
decline was partly indicative of banks’ drive to
reduce the cost of funds.

STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
The slowdown in economic developments
continued to weigh down performance of the
ZSE. Consequently, both the industrial and
mining indices recorded declines.

Industrial Index
The industrial index declined by 17.24 points,
from 114.85 points as at 31st December 2015 to
97.61 points as at end of the first quarter of
2016. On a year-on-year basis, the industrial
index softened by 60.61 points, from 158.22
points as at end March 2015, to 97.61 points as
at end March 2016, as shown in Figure 18.

Figure 18: Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Indices

Source: Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, 2016

Mining Index
The challenges in the mining sector, which
include weak international commodity prices,
projected slowdown in global economic
growth and inability to access low cost funding
for capitalisation, continued to adversely affect
investor interest in the resource counters on the
ZSE, during the first quarter of 2016.

As a result, the resources index declined by
4.37 points, from 23.72 points as at end

Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Industrial Index
Mining Index

December 2015, to close the first quarter of
2016 at 19.35 points. Similarly, on a year-on-
year basis, the mining index declined from
43.93 points as at end March 2015, to 19.35
points as at end March 2016.

Market Capitalisation

The ZSE lost US$428.4 million worth of
market capitalisation during the quarter under
review. This reflected a 13.94% decline from
US$3.07 billion as at end December 2015, to
US$2.65 billion as at end March 2016.
Cumulatively, over the year to March 2016, the
ZSE
lost
US$1.47
billion
worth
of
capitalisation.
Figure

depicts
the
movements in market capitalisation from
December 2014 to March 2016.

Figure 19: Market Capitalisation


Source: Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, 2016
Market Turnover
During the first quarter of 2016, trade on the
ZSE was skewed towards blue chip counters
such as Delta, Econet, Innscor and FBC. This
was due to the continuous reduction in market
value, which created significant interest in blue
chip counters, as investors rebalanced their
portfolios in a bid to preserve wealth.
Concentration of trade in the blue chip counters
resulted in an 11.1% increase in the value of
shares traded, from US$38.17 million in the
final quarter of 2015, to US$42.39 million in
the first quarter of 2016.

The volume of shares traded, however,
declined from 337 969 079 shares as at end
December 2015, to 254 505 420 shares as at
end March 2016, as a result of negative trading
on the local bourse.

Foreign investor sentiment remained bearish,
as exhibited by the 241.99% increase in net
foreign capital outflows, from US$4.52 million
in
the
final
quarter
of
2015,
to
US$15.49 million during the quarter under
review. Figure 20 shows the trend in market
turnover.


31-Dec-14
31-Jan-15
28-Feb-15
31-Mar-15
30-Apr-15
31-May-15
30-Jun-15
31-Jul-15
31-Aug-15
30-Sep-15
31-Oct-15
30-Nov-15
31-Dec-15
31-Jan-16
29-Feb-16
31-Mar-16
US$ Millions

Figure 20: Market Turnover Value

Source: Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, 2016


Other Stock Market Developments
During the quarter under review, Radar
Holdings applied to be delisted from the ZSE,
after receiving shareholder approval. This was
necessitated
by
the
group’s
prolonged
underperformance, which constrained both its
viability and ability to remain compliant with
the listing requirements on the local bourse.


5. PAYMENT, CLEARING AND
SETTLEMENT ACTIVITIES

The value of transactions processed through the
National Payment Systems (NPS) decreased by
11% to US$13.47 billion, in the first quarter of
2016, from US$15.09 billion recorded in the
final quarter of 2015. Transaction volumes also
decreased by 7% to 69.37 million, from 65.56
million, during the same period.

In value terms, the increase in NPS transactions
was largely driven by internet payment
streams. The value of Real Time Gross
Settlement
system
(RTGS),
Mobile,
Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), Point of
Sale (POS) and Cheque transactions declined
during the period under analysis.

Table 8 provides the statistical information on
various payment streams for the first quarter of
2016.

Table 8: Consolidated Transactional Activities
PAYMENT
STREAM
QUARTER
ENDING
31 DEC

QUARTER
ENDING 31
MAR 2016
PROPORTION

Value in US$ million
RTGS
11,683.81
10,294.24
76.45%
CHEQUE
34.81
34.22
0.25%
POS
426.22
418.22
3.11%
ATMS
1,093.95
932.46
6.92%
MOBILE
1,329.17
1,195.27
8.88%
INTERNET
518.67
591.54
4.39%
TOTAL
15,086.63
13,465.95
100%

Value in ‘000s
RTGS
454.91
433.14
0.62%
CHEQUE
90.21
84.52
0.12%
POS
3,861.06
4,074.09
5.87%
ATMs
3,487.73
3,134.49
4.52%
MOBILE
66,460.95
61,481.30
88.62%

INTERNET
157.98
166.32
0.24%
TOTAL
74,513.84
69,374.86
100%
Source: RBZ, 2016

31-Dec-14
31-Jan-15
28-Feb-15
31-Mar-15
30-Apr-15
31-May-15
30-Jun-15
31-Jul-15
31-Aug-15
30-Sep-15
31-Oct-15
30-Nov-15
31-Dec-15
31-Jan-16
29-Feb-16
31-Mar-16
US$ Millions

Large Value Payments
Zimbabwe
Electronic
Transfer
and
Settlement System
The value of transactions processed through the
RTGS system for the first quarter of 2016
decreased by 12% to US$10.29 billion, from
US$11.68 billion recorded in the final quarter
of 2015. The volume of transactions registered
a decrease of 5% to 433 141, from 454 907 as
shown in Figure 21.

Figure 21: RTGS Values and Volumes

Source: RBZ, 2016

SWIFT Foreign Currency Transactions
SWIFT foreign payments decreased by 5% to
US$1.33 billion for the quarter ended 31 March
2016, from US$1.40 billion in the final quarter
of 2015. Foreign receipts also stood at
US$1.14 billion in the first quarter of 2016,
down from US$1.26 billion during the final
quarter of 2015. Net foreign outflows
amounted to US$193.8 million during the
quarter under review. Trends in the quarterly
transactions are shown in Figure 22.

Figure
22:
SWIFT
Cross
Border
Transactions

Source: RBZ, 2016

Over the Counter Cash Withdrawals
The value of cash withdrawals decreased by
19% to US$2.46 billion, during the first quarter
of 2016, from US$3.03 billion recorded in the
final quarter of 2015. The corresponding
volumes decreased by 10%, from 3.12 million


RTGS Values in Billions
RTGS Volumes in Thousamds
Values


2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
Volumes in Thousands
Value in US$B
Value of Receipts
Value of Payments
Volumes of Payments
Volumes of Receipts

to 2.81 million as shown in Figure 23.
Figure
23:
Over
the
Counter
Cash
Withdrawals.


Source: RBZ, 2016

Retail Payments
Total retail transactions decreased from
US$15 086.6 million in the quarter ended
31 December 2015, to US$13 466.0 million in
the first quarter of 2016. In volume terms, total
retail transactions amounted to 69.4 million in
the first quarter of 2016, down from
74.5 million in the quarter ending December
2015.

Figures 24 and 25 show the trends in the values
and volumes of retail transactions from the
quarter ended December 2014 to the first
quarter ended March 2016.

Figure 24: Values of Retail Transactions


Source: RBZ, 2016


US$ BILLIONS
MILLIONS
Volumes
Values

1,000
1,200
1,400
US$ Millions
CHEQUE
POS
ATMS
MOBILE
INTERNET

Figure 25: Volumes of Retail Transactions

Source: RBZ, 2016
Collateral3

The value of collateral increased to US$11.08
million in the first quarter of 2016, from
US$10.83 million recorded in the last quarter
of 2015, as shown in Figure 26.


3The collateral figure comprises of cheque and card
payment stream amounts.
Figure 26: Total Collateral

Source: RBZ, 2016
Access Points and Device
Mobile payment agents declined from 38 745
in the fourth quarter of 2015, to 35 022 in the
first quarter of 2016. The POS population rose
to 17 069 in the first quarter of 2016, from
16 363 in the fourth quarter of 2015.


Mobile Volumes in Millions
Other Retai Volumes in Millions
RTGS
CHEQUE
POS
ATMs
INTERNET
MOBILE

US$ MILLIONS
Total Collateral
Total Collateral

The number of active mobile financial services
providers stood at 3.6 million subscribers
during the first quarter of 2016, down from
4.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Table 9 shows statistics for access points and
devices for the three last quarters of 2015 and
the first quarter of 2016.

Table 9: Payment Systems Access Points and Devices

2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
Mobile
Banking
Agents

ATMs

POS

PAYMENT SYSTEMS ACCESS DEVICES
Debit
Cards

Credit
Cards

Prepaid
Cards

Mobile
Banking
Subscribers

Internet
Banking
Subscribers

Source: RBZ, 2016

RESERVE BANK OF ZIMBABWE
MAY 2016


S29


STATISTICAL TABLES

1.
Liabilities and Assets of the Central Bank
1.1. Reserve Bank: Liabilities


S3
1.2. Reserve Bank: Assets


S4

2.
Liabilities and Assets of Other Depository Corporations
2.1. Commercial Banks: Liabilities


S5
2.2. Commercial Banks: Assets


S6
2.3. Accepting Houses: Liabilities


S7
2.4. Accepting Houses: Assets


S8
2.5. Building Societies: Liabilities


S9
2.6. Building Societies: Assets


S10

3.
Money Supply and Bank Liquidity
3.1. Monetary Aggregates


S11
3.2. Broad Money Survey


S12
3.3. Analysis of Monthly Changes in Money Supply


S13
3.4. Analysis of Yearly Changes in Money Supply


S14
3.5. Sectoral Analysis of Commercial Banks’ Loans and Advances


S15
3.6. Sectoral Analysis of Commercial Bank’s Deposits


S16

4.
National Payment Systems


4.1. Values of Transactions


S17
4.2. Volumes of Transactions


S17


S30


5.
Interest Rates, Security Yields and Prices
5.1. Lending Rates


S18
5.2. Deposit Rates


S18
5.3. Stock Exchange Indices


S19
5.4. Monthly Inflation


S20
5.5. Quarterly Inflation


S21
5.6. Annual Inflation


S22


6.
Balance of Payments
6.1. Cross Border Payments


S23
6.2. Cross Border Receipts


S24
6.3. External Debt Outstanding By Debtor


S25
6.4. External Debt Outstanding by Source


S26
6.5. External Debt Service and Debt Service Ratios


S27

7.
National Accounts
7.1. Real Gross Domestic and National Product per Capita at Market Prices

S28
7.2. Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost by Industry


S29
7.3. Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product


S20
7.4. Mineral Production


S21
7.5. Electricity Produced and Distributed
S32
7.6. Volume of Manufacturing Index


S33


S31


TABLE 1.2: RESERVE BANK - ASSETS
US$ Thousands
End of
Gold
Other
Total
Treasury Bills
Central
Banks
Other
Govt.
Other
Other Assets
TOTAL
Government
Stock


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec*/


Jan

Feb

Mar

*/ December 2015 Figures Audit Adjusted
Source: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
Loans and advances
Investments
Foreign Assets


S32


Loans & Contingent
Other
Non
Financial
Total
Bond
Coins
Foreign
Notes
Total
Other
Balances Advances
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
&
Balances Balances Balances
Liquid
with RBZ
Coin
with
with
Other
at
Trade
Treasury
Agric
PEs
Assets
at Banks
RBZ
Banks
Foreign
Banks
Bills
Bills


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.1: COMMERCIAL BANKS - ASSETS
US$ Millions
Liquid Assets
Securities


S33


Deposits
Amounts
Owing to
Capital
Contingent
Other
Total
Of which
and
Liabilities
Liabilities
Liabilities
Liabilities to
the
End of
Demand
Savings and
Short-term
Long-term
Total
Foreign
Liabilities
RBZ
Other Banks
Reserves
Public
Deposits


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.2: COMMERCIAL BANKS - LIABILITIES
US$ Millions


S34


Liquid Assets
Loans &
Contingent
Other
Non Financial
Total
End of
Notes
Total
Other
Balances
Advances
Assets
Assets
Assets
Assets
Bond
Coins
&
Balances
Balances
Balances
Liquid
with RBZ
Coin
with
with Other
at
Trade
Treasury
Assets
at Banks
RBZ
Banks
Foreign
Banks
Bills
Bills


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.3 : ACCEPTING HOUSES - ASSETS
US$ Millions


S35


Of which
Deposits
Amounts
Owing to
Capital
Contingent
Other
Total
Liabilities to the
and
Liabilities
Liabilities
Liabilities
Public
End of
Demand
Savings and
Short-term
Long-term
Total
Foreign
Liabilities
RBZ
Other Banks
Reserves
Deposits


36.9
31.2

68.1

-17.9
0.1
49.7

68.1

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.4: ACCEPTING HOUSES - LIABILITIES
US$ Millions


S36


Liquid
Assets
Notes
Balances
Trade
Treasury
Total
Mortgage
Other
Other
Non Financial
Total
End of
Bond Coins
&
with Other
Bills
Bills
Liquid
Advances
Advances
Assets
Assets
Assets
Coin
Banks
Assets
at Banks


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.5: BUILDING SOCIETIES- ASSETS
US$ Millions


S37


Of which
Deposits
Capital
Other
Total
Liabilities to
the
and
Liabilities
Liabilities
Public
End of
Savings and
Short-term
Long-term
Total
Reserves
Deposits


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 2.6 : BUILDING SOCIETIES - LIABILITIES
US$ Millions


S38


Bond
Coins
RBZ
Demand
Deposits
Comm.
Banks Dem.
Deposits
Merchant
Banks
Dem.
Deposits
M1
Comm.
Banks
Savings
Deposits
Building
Soc.
Savings
Deposits
P O S B
Savings
Deposits
Comm.
Banks U-30
Day
Deposits
Merchant
Banks U-30
Day Deposits
Building
Soc. U- 30
Day
Deposits
M2
Comm.
Banks O-30
Day
Deposits
Merchant
Banks O30 Day
Deposits
Building
Soc. O- 30
Day
Deposits
Building
Soc. Class
C
Deposits
Building
Soc.
Other
Share
Deposits
P O S B
Time
Deposits
M3


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 3.1: MONETARY AGGREGATES
US$ Thousands


S39


TABLE 3.2: BROAD MONEY SURVEY
US$ Thousands
Period
NET FOREIGN
ASSETS
Total Foreign
Assets
Liabilities \2
NET
DOMESTIC
ASSETS
DOMESTIC
CREDIT
Claims on
Government
(net)
RBZ
DMBs
OBIs
Claims on
Public
Enterprises
Claims on
Private
Sector
RBZ
DMBs
OBIs
OTHER
ITEMS
(NET)
BROAD
MONEY
(M3)

-435,528.84
1,089,808.49


-810,172.35
1,042,165.96


-1,750,112.68
(132,686.92)


Jan
-714,190.62
830,959.41


Feb
-763,306.53
737,833.47


Mar
-565,959.32
816,079.57


Apr
-636,028.06
755,493.40


May
-681,066.49
811,200.44


Jun
-775,512.62
926,353.71


Jul
-723,772.77
843,689.23


Aug
-727,785.66
867,447.06


Sep
-715,689.39
889,018.56


Oct
-822,417.21
784,372.60


Nov
-771,547.97
667,350.67


Dec
-683,664.57
796,212.39


Jan
-688,591.44
758,634.57


Feb
-780,139.70
679,001.86


Mar
-728,823.68
687,149.82


Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016


S40


TABLE 3.3: ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY
US$ Thousands
NET
FOREIGN
ASSETS
Total
Foreign
Assets
Liabilities
NET
DOMESTIC
ASSETS
DOMESTIC
CREDIT
Claims on
Government
(net)
RBZ
DMBs

OBIs
Claims on
Public
Enterprises
Claims on
Private
Sector
RBZ
DMBs
OBIs
OTHER
ITEMS
(NET)
BROAD
MONEY
(M3)

Broad
Money
(M3)

Domestic
Credit

Claims
on
Private
Sector


40,492.90
62,580.06


Jan

Feb

Mar
197,347.21
78,246.10


Apr

May
-45,038.42
55,707.04


Jun
-94,446.14
115,153.27


Jul

Aug
-4,012.89
23,757.82


Sep
12,096.27
21,571.50


Oct

Nov

Dec
87,883.40
128,861.72


Jan
-20,906.51
(34,042.69)


Feb
-91,548.26
(79,632.71)


Mar
51,316.02
8,147.96


Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
Note:
RBZ - Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
DMBs - Deposit Money Banks (Commercial Banks and Merchant Banks)
OBIs - Other Banking institutions (Building Sicieties)


S41


NET
FOREIGN
ASSETS
Total
Foreign
Assets
Liabilities
RBZ

DMBs

OBIs
NET
DOMESTIC
ASSETS
DOMESTIC
CREDIT
Claims on
Government
(net)
RBZ
DMBs

OBIs
Claims on
Public
Enterprises
Claims on
Private
Sector

RBZ

DMBs

OBIs
OTHER
ITEMS
(NET)
BROAD
MONEY (M3)

Broad
Money
(M3)

Domestic
Credit

Claims
on
Private
Sector


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
Note:
RBZ - Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
DMBs - Deposit Money Banks (Commercial Banks and Merchant Banks)
OBIs - Other Banking institutions (Building Sicieties)
TABLE 3.4: ANALYSIS OF YEARLY CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY
US$ Thousands


S42


AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTIONCOMMUNICATION
DISTRIBUTION
FINANCIAL &
FINANCIAL
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORT INDIVIDUALSCONGLOMERATE
TOTAL
END OF


INVESTMENTS ORGANISATIONS


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,2016
TABLE 3.5: Sectoral Analysis of Commerical Banks' Loans and Advances
US$ Thousands


S43


AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION COMMUNICATION DISTRIBUTION
FINANCIAL
FINANCIAL
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORT INDIVIDUALS CONGLOMERATES
TOTAL
END OF

INVESTMENT
ORGANISATIONS


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,2016
TABLE 3.6: Sectoral Analysis of Commercial Banks' Deposits
US$ Thousands


S44


MONTH
ZETSS
CHEQUE
POS
ATM
MOBILE
INTERNET
MONTH
ZETSS
CHEQUE
POS
ATM
MOBILE
INTERNET

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May

Jun

Jun

Jul

Jul

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Annual
Total

Annual
Total


Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,2016
TABLE 4.1 : ZETSS AND RETAIL PAYMENTS TRANSACTIONAL ACTIVITY
Values of Transactions (US$ in millions)
TABLE 4.2 : ZETSS AND RETAIL PAYMENTS TRANSACTIONAL ACTIVITY
Volumes of Transactions (in thousands)


S45


END OF
SAVINGS
3 MONTHS
End Period
Nominal Lending
Rates2
Individuals
Corporate

Jan
6.00-35.00
14.16
9.66
Jan
0.15-8.00
3.00-17.00
Feb
4.30-33.50
14.00
9.73
Feb
0.50-12.00
1.00-17.00
Mar
4.30-33.50
13.24
8.75
Mar
0.50-12.00
1.00-17.00
Apr
4.30-31.00
12.71
8.84
Apr
0.30-8.00
1.00-17.00
May
5.00-31.00
12.74
8.79
May
0.30-8.00
1.00-17.00
Jun
5.00-31.00
11.94
8.42
Jun
0.30-8.00
1.00-17.00
Jul
5.00-31.00
11.86
8.56
Jul
0.30-8.00
1.00-15.00
Aug
4.30-26.00
11.96
8.51
Aug
0.30-8.00
1.00-15.00
Sep
4.30-25.00
11.81
8.47
Sep
0.30-8.00
1.00-16.00
Oct
4.00-18.00
10.98
7.28
Oct
0.50-8.00
1.00-17.00
Nov
4.00-16.25
12.2
7.67
Nov
0.75-8.00
1.00-17.00
Dec
6.00-16.00
11.99
7.57
Dec
0.50-8.00
0.75-17.00

Jan
6.00-22.00
12.08
7.38
Jan
0.50-8.00
0.75-17.00
Feb
4.00-22.00
11.48
7.29
Feb
0.50-8.00
0.75-17.00
Mar
4.00-22.00
11.44
7.16
Mar
0.50-8.00
0.75-17.00
Source:Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,2016
Notes
TABLE 5.2 : BANKS DEPOSIT RATES (percent per annum)1
1. The range of rates qouted by banks during the period.
2. Three (3) months deposit rates revised to exclude rates on
inactive or dormant accounts.
TABLE 5.1: LENDING RATES (percent per annum)1
3. Lending rates exclude rates on staff loans.
1. Table revised, to separate weighted lending rates for individuals and
corporate bodies.
2. Nominal Lending Rates depict the range of rates quoted by banks.
Weighted Average Lending Rates 3
Commercial Banks
COMMERCIAL BANKS


S46


US$ Millions
Industrial
Mining
Market Capitalisation

Jan
164.90
58.13
4,365.14
Feb
167.16
55.38
4,353.38
Mar
158.22
43.92
4,117.08
Apr
156.23
42.93
4,066.07
May
152.96
44.45
3,978.06
Jun
148.4
44.3
3,803.80
Jul
145.35
39.36
3,812.65
Aug
135.43
35.34
3,552.02
Sep
131.93
24.36
3,444.50
Oct
130.83
23.57
3,416.11
Nov
117.55
22.33
3,141.68
Dec
114.85
23.72
3,073.41

Jan
103.04
19.53
2,790.40
Feb
99.4
19.14
2,692.30
Mar
97.17
19.53
2,645.06
TABLE: 5.3: ZIMBABWE STOCK MARKET STATISTICS
Source: Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE),2016
Indices


S47


FOOD
INFLATION
ALL
ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
CLOTHING
HSING,
WATER,
FURNITURE
HEALTH
TRANSPORT
COMMUNICATION
RECREATION &
EDUCATION
RESTAURANTS
&
MISC.
TOTAL
NON
FOOD &
ITEMS
& TOBACCO
FOOTWEAR
ELECTRICTY,
GAS
AND
CULTURE
HOTELS
GOODS &
FOOD
NON
ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
& OTHER
EQUIPMENT
SERVICES
FUELS
WEIGHTS


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source :Zimstat, 2016
NON-FOOD INFLATION
TABLE 5.4 : MONTHLY INFLATION -- PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX \1
( DECEMBER 2012 = 100)


S48


FOOD
INFLATION
ALL
ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
CLOTHING
HSING,
WATER,
FURNITURE
HEALTH
TRANSPORT
COMMUNICATI
ON
RECREATION &
EDUCATION
RESTAURANT
S &
MISC.
TOTAL NON
FOOD &
ITEMS
& TOBACCO
FOOTWEAR
ELECTRICTY,
GAS
AND
CULTURE
HOTELS
GOODS &
FOOD
NON
ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
& OTHER
EQUIPMENT
SERVICES
FUELS
WEIGHTS


Jan

Feb

MAr

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source :Zimstat, 2016
TABLE 5.5 : QUARTERLY INFLATION -- PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX \1
( DECEMBER 2012 = 100)
NON-FOOD INFLATION


S49


FOOD INFLATION
ALL
ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
CLOTHING
HSING, WATER,
FURNITURE
HEALTH
TRANSPORT
COMMUNIC
ATION
RECREATION &
EDUCATION
RESTAURAN
TS &
MISC.
TOTAL
NON
FOOD &
ITEMS
& TOBACCO
FOOTWEAR
ELECTRICTY,
GAS
AND
CULTURE
HOTELS
GOODS &
FOOD
NON ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES
& OTHER
EQUIPMENT
SERVICES
FUELS
WEIGHTS


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Source :Zimstat, 2016
TABLE 5.6 : ANNUAL INFLATION -- PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX \1
( DECEMBER 2012 = 100)
NON-FOOD INFLATION


S50


Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15 Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Merchandise Imports (excl. energy)
258.4

269.9

298.0

261.6

254.1

304.8

294.0

221.7

339.1

302.0

272.3

264.4

240.6

223.8

213.0

- Consumption Goods
137.3

145.0

161.7

131.4

124.5

162.8

158.0

138.1

184.1

153.2

141.6

141.9

128.3

119.5

113.8

- Capital Goods
69.9

79.2

93.8

79.9

73.4

90.4

85.8

38.8

109.6

102.6

93.6

73.2

68.2

67.0

66.0

- Intermediate Goods
51.2

45.8

42.5

50.3

56.2

51.6

50.2

44.8

45.4

46.2

37.1

49.3

44.1

37.3

33.2

Energy (Fuel & Electricity)
100.9

86.5

79.5

90.1

75.3

85.0

89.1

65.4

127.0

70.6

71.2

76.1

62.9

62.7

56.8

Service Payments
122.6

104.5

108.9

107.8

98.5

116.1

126.7

140.6

127.3

129.9

109.6

133.4

112.2

89.1

98.2

- Technical, Professional & consult
66.0

58.3

63.3

56.5

49.5

65.1

61.4

48.3

63.6

76.0

56.6

76.6

47.6

38.2

47.5

- Software
4.9

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.2

6.3

4.4

4.7

5.2

5.6

5.7

7.2

6.8

5.6

- Other (tourism, edu, freight etc)
51.7

40.4

40.1

45.9

43.8

45.8

59.0

87.8

59.0

48.8

47.4

51.1

57.4

44.1

45.2

Income Payments (Profits, Dividends
15.5

27.5

19.0

32.4

54.1

47.4

63.6

46.5

38.2

26.0

24.7

29.0

22.5

17.6

12.4

Capital Remittances (outward)
116.5

61.5

70.5

108.3

75.1

113.5

84.1

54.2

88.2

72.0

85.1

78.4

71.4

61.6

67.4

- External Loan Repayments
98.3

48.1

50.0

90.9

53.5

91.6

68.8

44.9

60.8

55.1

54.9

59.9

48.1

43.0

56.5

- Foreign Investment
18.2

13.4

20.6

17.4

21.6

21.9

15.2

9.3

27.4

16.9

30.1

18.5

23.3

18.6

10.9

Other Payments
1.3

1.6

1.4

0.7

0.8

0.3

1.0

0.9

0.6

1.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.8

TOTAL
615.2

551.4

577.4

600.8

558.0

667.1

658.4

529.3

720.5

602.2

563.5

582.0

510.0

455.9

448.7

Source: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
Table 6.1: Monthly Cross Border Payments (US$ Millions)


S51


Agriculture
Horticulture
Manufacturing
Mining
Tobacco
Tourism
Transport &
Other Services
Total
Telecom
Jan-15
14.6

2.2

31.4

214.0

108.3

7.3

39.8

0.7

418.1

Feb-15
14.4

1.0

27.4

142.2

55.8

7.6

44.6

0.1

293.1

Mar-15
18.4

3.3

25.2

161.9

27.9

10.1

31.3

0.4

278.4

Apr-15
8.9

1.9

17.4

166.0

63.1

10.6

38.0

2.0

307.8

May-15
10.3

1.8

22.8

154.0

25.4

12.5

16.4

0.1

243.2

Jun-15
10.6

1.3

21.9

195.9

14.1

12.6

27.7

2.7

286.8

Jul-15
12.6

2.3

30.3

100.1

16.1

16.7

26.0

0.5

204.5

Aug-15
11.7

1.5

14.1

148.4

17.8

16.1

17.0

0.3

226.9

Sep-15
18.1

2.9

28.0

150.1

66.2

15.7

22.8

0.5

304.2

Oct-15
10.2

2.1

23.8

56.6

21.9

14.0

39.2

9.3

177.1

Nov-15
8.5

2.8

19.2

68.2

36.0

11.0

144.1

0.4

290.1

Dec-15
19.3

1.7

23.8

231.4

32.3

10.0

21.4

0.2

339.9

Jan-16
10.4

1.9

12.0

149.9

121.6

0.0
15.3

3.4

296.7

Feb-16
15.4

2.2

11.3

64.6

42.5

4.9

20.6

1.9

136.6

Mar-16
15.5

2.2

10.5

202.9

29.9

4.7

23.0

7.9

262.1

Source: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
Table 6.2: Monthly Cross Border Receipts (Millions)


S52


End Period

Long-Term External Debt

Government

Bilateral Creditors

Multilateral Creditors

Private Creditors

Public Enterprises


Bilateral Creditors

1,155

Multilateral Creditors

Private Creditors

Monetary Authorities

Multilateral Creditors - IMF

Private

1,002
2,261
1,913
Short-Term External Debt

1,198
1,382
1,286

1,564
2,394
2,258
Supplier's Credits

Reserve Bank

Private

1,807
1,671
Total External Debt

Source: Ministry of Finance & Economic Development, 2016 ; Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 6.3: ZIMBABWE: EXTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING BY DEBTOR
(US$ millions)


S53


End Period

(US$ millions)
Total Medium to Long-Term External Debt

Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt

Bilateral Creditors

Multilateral Creditors

Private Creditors

Private Non-Guaranteed Long term

1,002
2,261
1,913
Short-Term External Debt

1,286

1,564
2,394
2,258
Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt

Reserve Bank

Private

1,807
1,671
Total External Debt

Gross Domestic Product


External Debt / GDP

Source: Ministry of Finance & Economic Development, 2016 ; Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016
TABLE 6.4: External Debt Outstanding by Source
(US$ millions)


S54


TABLE 6.5 EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE AND DEBT SERVICE RATIOS
(US$ MILLIONS)

Government

173.3
Capital

130.4
Interest

Parastatals

Capital

Interest

Private

418.1
Capital

Interest

163.1
Total

591.4
Capital

385.4
Interest

Exports of Goods
and Services

3841.9
Debt Service ratio

Capital Service Ratio

Interest Service ratio

Note: Figures reflect scheduled debt service.

Source: Ministry of Finance & Economic Development, 2016 ; Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2016


S55


TABLE 7.1: REAL GROSS DOMESTIC AND NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA AT MARKET PRICES
US$ Millions
Gross
Net Investment Gross
Gross
Gross
Domestic
Income Paid
National
Domestic National
Gross Domestic
Gross national
Product
to Other
Product
Product Product
Product
Product
Period
Countries


Source : Zimstat, 2016
Current Prices
Constant Prices
Constant Prices
Per Capita


S56


Agriculture
Mining
Manufac- Electricity
Finance
Distribution Transport Public
Hunting and
and
turing
and
Construc-
and
Real
Hotels and and Comm- 'Administr-
Other
Period
Fishing
Quarrying
Water
tion
Insurance Estate Restaurants
unication 'ation
Education
Health
Services
Total

10494

11400

12213
Source : Zimstat, 2016
2 . Includes domestic services and allowance for imputed banking service charges .
TABLE 7.2 : GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT FACTOR COST BY INDUSTRY
US$ Millions
(at current prices )


S57


Net
Private
Gross
Net
Expenditure
Private
Gvt
non-profit
fixed
Increase
Total
export of
on gross
consu-
current
making
captital
in
Statistical
domestic
goods and
domestic
Period
mption
expenditure bodies
formation
stocks
discrepancy
expenditure
services
product


Source : Zimstat, 2016
(at current prices)
US$ Millions
TABLE 7.3: EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT/1

S


Period
Gold
Platinum
Palladium
Nickel
Copper
Coal
Chrome
Rhodium Other/1
Total


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Source: Zimstat, 2016
1. Other minerals include Ferrosilicon, Iron ore, Iron pyrites and magnesite
Table 7.4: MINERAL PRODUCTION
US$ Millions

S


By Hwange
Power station
By Kariba
Power
Station
By Other
Power Station
IPPs
Total from
Zimbabwe

3,133.2

5,387.3

442.1

-
8,962.7

3,826.9

4,981.8

506.1

-
9,314.8

3,460.2

5,402.4

559.3
28.9

9,814.9

January

February

March

April

May

June
395.1

47.5
3.9
911.5
July
470.1

58.4
3.3
1001.8
August
369.4
491.7

2.4
913.5
September
357.2

51.5
2.4
752.1
October

November

December

Source:Zimstat ,2016
Table 7.5: Electricity Energy Produced and Distributed
Interconnected System
Generation Sent Out


S60


(2009=100)
Food-stuffs
(including
stockfeeds)
Drink and
Tobacco
Textiles
including
ginning
Clothing
and
Footwear
Wood and
Furniture
Paper,
Printing and
Publishing
Chemical and
Petroleum
Products
Non-metalic
Mineral Products
Metals and
Metal Products
Transport and
Transport
Equipment
Other
Manufacturing
Groups
All
Manufacturing
Groups
Weight

Mean


Mean


Mean


Mean

2014:Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2015:Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Source:Zimstat ,2016
TABLE 7.6: VOLUME OF MANUFACTURING INDEX (VMI)


S61