ECONOMIC REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2012


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
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Economic Report Third Quarter

Contents


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Text Tables


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Appendix Tables

Figures


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1.0 Summary
Available data showed that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by
6.5 per cent, compared with the 6.4 per cent in the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed, largely, to the increase in
the contribution of agriculture and communication sectors.
Broad money supply, (M2), grew by 4.1 per cent at end-September
2012 relative to the level at end-June 2012. The development
reflected the 0.3 and 9.7 per cent rise in domestic credit (net) and
foreign assets (net) of the banking system, respectively, which more
than offset the 2.8 per cent fall in other assets (net) of the banking
system. Narrow money supply, (M1), fell by 3.2 per cent, in contrast to
the increase of 1.2 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter of
2012. Reserve money (RM) rose by 24.1 per cent to N3,117.1, from
N2,512.5 at the end of the preceding quarter.
Available data indicated a mixed trend in banks’ interest rates. The
spread between the weighted average term deposit and maximum
lending rates widened to 16.92 per cent from 16.49 per cent in the
preceding quarter. The margin between the average savings
deposit and maximum lending rates also widened from 21.70 per
cent in the preceding quarter to 21.80 per cent. The weighted
average interbank call rate, which stood at 14.34 per cent in the
preceding quarter, rose to 15.50 per cent, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the interbank funds market.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets
outstanding increased by 3.6 per cent above the level in the
preceding quarter to N6,029.8 billion. The development was
attributed to the 4.4 and 2.3 per cent increase in FGN Bonds and
NTBs outstanding, respectively. Activities on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) in the third quarter 2012 were mixed.
Total federally-collected revenue in the third quarter of 2012 stood
at N2,797.59 billion, representing an increase of 15.5 and 7.8 per
cent above the budget estimate and the level in the preceding
quarter, respectively, but a decline of 15.9 per cent below the
receipts in the corresponding period of 2011. At N1,936.15 billion, oil
receipts, which constituted 69.2 per cent of the total, exceeded the
budget estimate by 16.7 per cent but declined by 2.3 and 26.7 per
cent below the receipts in the preceding quarter and corresponding
quarter of 2011, respectively. The decline in oil receipts relative to
the preceding quarter was attributed, largely, to the fall in the
receipts from domestic crude oil and gas sales during the period.


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Non-oil receipts, at N861.44 billion (30.8 per cent of the total), was
above the budget estimate and receipts in the preceding quarter
by 12.8 and 40.1 per cent, respectively. The increase in non-oil
revenue relative to the preceding quarter’s level, largely reflected
the rise in corporate tax, education tax, customs and excise duties
and National Information Technology Development Fund (NITDF)
during the review period.
Federal Government retained revenue for the third quarter of 2012
was N762.64 billion, while total expenditure was N1,221.73 billion.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in an
estimated deficit of N459.09 billion or 4.4 per cent of the nominal
GDP for third quarter 2012, compared with the deficit of N211.78
billion and N161.14 billion for the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively.
Agricultural activities were adversely affected by the harsh weather
conditions experienced during third quarter of 2012. The heavy rains
caused widespread flooding with the attendant destruction of
farmlands. The negative impact of the weather condition,
particularly along the River Niger plains created concern about
possibility of food scarcity in the coming year.
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural
gas liquids, was estimated at 2.26 million barrels per day (mbd) or
207.92 million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export was estimated
at 1.81 mbd or 166.52 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries
to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or
41.4 million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude,
the Bonny Light (370 API), estimated at US$111.04 per barrel, rose by
1.6 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year), for the third
quarter of 2012, was 11.3 per cent, compared with 12.9 and 10.3 per
cent recorded at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. Inflation rate on a
twelve-month moving average basis was 11.9 per cent, compared
with 11.3 and 11.4 per cent in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$14.46 billion and US$9.21 billion,
respectively, resulting in a net inflow of US$5.83 billion during the
quarter. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized
dealers amounted to US$6.8 billion in the third quarter of 2012,
compared with US$8.7 billion in the preceding quarter.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

The average exchange rate of the Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar
depreciated by 0.02 per cent to N157.39 per US dollar. It also
depreciated by 2.6 per cent relative to the level in the
corresponding quarter of 2011. In the bureau-de-change segment
of the market, the naira traded at an average of N161.79 per US
dollar, compared with N160.82 per US dollar in the preceding
quarter. In the interbank segment, the Naira exchanged for an
average of N159.36 to the US dollar in the third quarter of 2012,
compared with N159.41 and N154.3 per US dollar in previous quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2010, respectively. Provisional
data on non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters, at US$571.07
million, declined by 40.9 below the level in the preceding quarter,
but increased by 58.9 per cent over the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2011 respectively.
Growth in global output remained sluggish during third quarter 2012,
as the euro area debt crisis intensified. The International Monetary
Fund latest Economic Outlook forecast the world economy to
expand by 3.3 per cent at the end of 2012. Real GDP in Euro area
was projected to contract by 0.4 per cent at the end of 2012, while
growth in the US was projected to slow further from 2.0 and 1.7 per
cent in the first and second quarter, respectively. Growth is also
estimated to have weakened in developing Asia, including China,
India and Japan. Real GDP in Latin America decelerated in most
part of the third quarter, largely, due to declining production in
Brazil. Continued uncertainty with political and economic transition
within the Middle East and North Africa in the aftermath of the Arab
spring have weakened terms of trade and heightened slow growth.
Declining crude oil supply which started since second quarter
continued through third quarter as a result of reduced production in
both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. This decline in supply was
reflected in prices increase with price of Brent Crude Oil reaching at
$116/pbl mid-way through September. However, market watchers
expect lower oil prices over the medium term, with future contracts
for December 2013 trading at US$107 per barrel.
Global inflation continued to ease, largely in response to the
receding commodity prices since the first half of the year.
Deceleration in global inflation has also been accentuated by
slowdown in global activity in many advanced economies. Core
inflation in advanced economies remained steady at about 1.5 per
cent, while headline inflation in emerging market and developing
economies declined by almost 2 percentage points. Assuming
broadly unchanged commodity prices, headline inflation is forecast
to moderate to 1.8 per cent in 2013.


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Other major international economic developments and meetings of
relevance to the domestic economy during the quarter included:
the Stakeholders’ Forum on Capital Markets Integration in West
Africa held in Accra, Ghana from 23- 24 August, 2012. The Forum
was organized by the West African Monetary Institute (WAMI) in
collaboration with the Ghana Stock Exchange. The Forum
recognized the important roles the central banks in the sub-region
would play in facilitating the process and granted them observer
status on the newly constituted Governing Council. The Forum also
identified important areas of collaboration with the central banks to
include payment settlements, capital account movement, foreign
exchange controls and money laundering.
The ECOWAS Central Bank Governors met and deliberated on
recent developments during the Mid-Year 2012 statutory meetings of
WAMA, WAMI and West African Institute for Financial and Economic
Management (WAIFEM) held in Monrovia, Liberia from July 11 – 12,
2012. The Governors considered and adopted the Reports of the
West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management
(WAIFEM), deliberated on multilateral surveillance of ECOWAS
member countries, statistical and policy harmonization, international
financial reporting standards (IFRS), developments on exchange
rates of member countries, research papers, and accession of Cape
Verde to WAMA. The Governors also noted the developments on
the exchange rates of member countries, but directed WAMA to
make further consultations with other relevant stakeholders in the
region. At the meeting of the WAMI, the Governors deliberated on
the
reports
of
the
West
African
Monetary
Zone
(WAMZ)
macroeconomic convergence, policy papers, payments system
development project, trade integration study, ACBF-Funded Project
on institutional strengthening, quoting and trading in WAMZ
currencies, audited financial statements for 2011 and mid-year
budget review. Finally, the Central Bank Governors met and
considered the report of the College of Supervisors of WAMZ on the
fringes of the ECOWAS institutions’ meetings on July 12, 2012 in
Monrovia, Liberia.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
The growth in the key monetary aggregate was moderate at the
end of the third quarter of 2012. Banks’ deposit rates generally
increased, while lending rates indicated mixed developments during
the quarter under review. The value of money market assets
increased, due largely, to the rise in FGN bonds and NTBs.
Transactions on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed
during the review quarter.
Provisional data indicated that growth in the major monetary
aggregate was moderate at the end of the third quarter of
2012. Relative to the level at the end of the preceding
quarter, broad money supply, (M2), grew by 4.1 per cent to
N14,040.7 billion at end-September 2012, compared with the
growth of 1.6 and 3.7 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter and corresponding period of 2011. The development
reflected the 0.3 per cent and 9.7 per cent growth in
Domestic credit (net) and foreign assets (net), of the banking
system respectively. Over the level at end-December 2011,
the growth in M2 was sluggish at 5.5 per cent. This compared
with the 1.4 per cent increase at the end of the second
quarter. The development was attributed to the 15.6 per cent
growth in foreign assets (net) which more than offset the 2.5
per cent decline in domestic credit (net) of the banking
system.
Narrow money supply, (M1), at N6,389.2 billion, fell by 3.2 per
cent at the end of the third quarter, in contrast to the increase
of 1.2 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development reflected the 3.5 and 1.6 per cent fall in the
demand deposit and currency components, respectively.
Relative to the level at end-December 2011, (M1) declined by
5.6 per cent, reflecting largely, the 14.0 per cent fall in
currency outside banks during the review period.
Quasi money, at N7,652.5, rose by 11.2 per cent compared
with an increase of 2.0 and 1.2 at the end of preceding
quarter and corresponding quarter period of 2011. Relative to
the level at end-December 2011, Quasi money rose by 17.1
per cent. Correspondingly, the increase in quasi money more
Growth in the
key monetary
aggregate
moderated
during Q3 2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

than offset the effect of the decline in the narrow money
supply (Fig. 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1

Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)

At N13,348.1 billion, aggregate banking system credit (net) to
the domestic economy, rose by 0.3 per cent at the end of the
third quarter of 2012. This compared with the growth of 12.1
and negative 2.7 per cent at the end of the corresponding
quarter of 2011 and preceding quarter. The development
reflected, largely, the 1.6 per cent increase in claims on the
private sector.
Over the level at end-December 2011, aggregate banking
system credit (net) to the domestic economy fell by 2.5 per
cent, reflecting largely the 218.1 per cent fall in claims on the
Federal Government.
Banking system‟s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at
the end of the review quarter, declined by 14.5 per cent to
negative N1,580.3 billion, compared with the decline of 213.2
per cent in the preceding quarter. The development was
accounted for, largely, by the decline in banking system‟s

1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1a and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).


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Economic Report Third Quarter

holdings of FGN Bonds and Treasury Bills. Over the level at-end
December 2011, aggregate banking system‟s credit (net) to
the Federal government fell significantly by 218.1 per cent,
reflecting largely the fall in claims on the federal government
by banks. The Federal Government, however, remained a net
lender to the banking system at the end of the review quarter.
At the end of third quarter 2012, banking system‟s credit to the
private sector rose by 1.6 per cent to N14,928.5 billion,
compared with the increase of 4.1 and 11.6 per cent at the
end of the preceding quarter and corresponding period of
2011, respectively. The development was attributed, largely,
to the 1.6 per cent increase in claims on the core private
sector (Fig. 2, Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2


Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)

At N8,251.8 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
increased by 9.7 per cent at the end of the review quarter,
compared with the increase of 3.0 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the
24.5 and 6.0 per cent increase in DMBs and CBN‟s holdings of
foreign assets respectively. Relative to the level at endDecember 2011, foreign assets (net) of the banking system,

2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP,
CCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date).
Banking system
credit to the
private sector rose
at the end of the
third quarter of
2012.
Foreign assets
(net) of the
banking system
increased at the
end of the
quarter under
review.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

also grew by 15.6 per cent reflecting, largely the 41.7 per cent
increase in DMBs holdings of foreign assets.
At the end of the review quarter, other assets (net) of the
banking system declined by 2.8 per cent, to negative
N7,559.2 billion, compared with the decline of 4.7 and 26.6
per cent at the end of preceding quarter and corresponding
period of 2011, respectively. The decline reflected, largely,
the fall in unclassified assets of the CBN. Relative to the level at
end-December 2011, other assets (net) of the banking system,
declined by 0.5 per cent.

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Percent)
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at
the CBN
At N1,348.8 billion, currency in circulation fell by 1.1 per cent at
the end of the third quarter of 2012, compared to the decline
of 4.8 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development was attributed, largely, to the 1.6 per cent
decline in currency outside the banking system. Relative to
the level at end-December 2011, currency in circulation fell by
13.9 per cent.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N6,873.9 billion,
indicating an increase of 6.2 per cent, compared with 15.7
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development reflected the 53.9 increase in DMBs deposits
which more than offset the 0.6 and 4.5 per cent decline in


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Economic Report Third Quarter

private sector and Federal Government deposits, respectively.
Of the total deposits, the shares of the Federal Government,
banks and „‟others‟‟ were N4,502.2 billion (65.5 per cent),
N1,768.3 billion (25.7 per cent) and N603.4 billion (8.8 per
cent), respectively, compared with 72.9, 17.8 and 9.3 per cent
in the preceding quarter.
Consistent with the trends in DMBs‟ deposits with the CBN, the
reserve money (RM), increased by 24.1 per cent to N3,117.1
billion, from N2,512.5 billion at the end of the preceding
quarter.

2.3
Money Market Developments
Monetary policy was largely restrictive in the third quarter of
2012. While the monetary policy rate (MPR) was maintained at
12.0 per cent, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) was
increased to 12.0 per cent from 8.0 per cent. Moreover, Net
Open Position (NOP) was reduced to 1.0 per cent from 3.0 per
cent. The reduction in NOP was expected to reduce demand
in the foreign exchange market thereby ensuring stability in of
the exchange rate.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market
assets outstanding for the third quarter of 2012 stood at
N6,029.80 billion, showing an increase of 3.6 per cent, in
contrast to the decline of 0.3 per cent at the end of the
second quarter of 2012. The development was attributed to
the 4.4 and 2.3 per cent increase in FGN Bonds and Treasury
Bills outstanding, respectively.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Available data indicated mixed trends in banks‟ interest rates
in the third quarter of 2012. The average savings deposit rate
rose from 1.70 per cent in the second quarter to 1.75 per cent
in the third quarter. With the exception of the 12 months and
over 12 months deposits rate, which declined from a range of
6.82 – 7.22 per cent in the second quarter to 4.64 – 6.75 per
cent in the third quarter, all rates on deposits of various
maturities rose from a range of 1.70 – 14.34 per cent in the
second quarter to 1.75 – 15.50 per cent at the end of the third
Reserve money
(RM) increased
at the end of the
third quarter of
2012.


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quarter. At 6.63 per cent, average term deposit rate, declined
by 0.27 percentage point below the level in the preceding
quarter. The average prime lending rate fell by 2.55
percentage points to 14.39, while the maximum lending rate
rose by 0.15 percentage points to 23.55 in the third quarter.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposit and maximum lending rate widened by 0.43
percentage points to 16.92 percentage points from 16.49 per
cent in the preceding quarter. The margin between the
average savings deposit and the maximum lending rate, also
widened, from 21.70 percentage points in the preceding
quarter to 21.80 percentage points. With headline inflation
rate of 11.3 per cent at end-September 2012, all rates, with the
exception of lending rates, were negative in real terms.
At the interbank call segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 14.34 per cent at end of the
second quarter, rose by 1.16 percentage points to 15.50 per
cent in the third quarter of 2012, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the inter-bank funds market. The weighted
average rate at the Open Buy Back (OBB) segment, increased
to 14.49 per cent at the end of the review quarter from 13.99
per cent in the preceding quarter. The Nigeria Inter-bank
Offered Rate (NIBOR) for the 7- and 30-day tenors also
increased to 16.06 and 16.75 per cent, respectively, in the
review quarter from 14.90 and 15.33 per cent in the second
quarter of 2012 (Fig. 3, Table 2).

Most deposit rates
of various
maturitiestrended
upwards in Q3
2012.
The spread
between the
weighted - average
term deposit and
maximum lending
rates widened.
Interbank and
money market
rates trended
upwards in Q3
2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits

Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending


2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
The value of Commercial Paper (CP) held by DMBs declined
by 40.0 per cent to N1.2 billion at the end of the third quarter
of 2012, compared to a decrease of 98.9 per cent at the end
of the preceding quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.02 per cent of
the total value of money market assets outstanding,
compared with 0.03 per cent as at the end of the preceding
quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
The value of BAs held by DMBs fell by 19.1 per cent to N17.1
billion at the end of the review quarter, compared with the
decline of 25.5 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development reflected the decline in investments in BAs
by deposit money banks and discount houses. Consequently,
BAs accounted for 0.28 per cent of the total value of money
market assets outstanding at the end of the review quarter,
compared with 0.36 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter.
Investment in
CP by DMBs
declined in the
third quarter of
2012.
DMBs’ holdings of
BAs fell during Q3
of 2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.3.4
Open Market Operations
Bills of maturities ranging from 38-84 days were used to mop
up excess liquidity at the Open Market Operation (OMO).
Total sales in the third quarter amounted to N328.21 billion,
while total subscriptions was N869.34 billion. The bid rates
ranged from 13.25–18.00 per cent, while the stop rates ranged
from 13.70–14.60. The total sale was 58.3 per cent below the
level in the preceding quarter.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day
tenors, amounting to N822.05, N2,095.54 and N822.05 billion,
respectively, were offered, subscribed to and allotted in the
third quarter of 2012, compared with the respective sums of
N970.81 billion, N2,518.62 billion and N970.81 billion in the
preceding quarter. The bid rates ranged from 10.50 to 26.00,
10.50 to 23.00 and 11.95 to 23.50 per cent for the 91-, 182- and
364-day tenor, respectively, while the stop rates ranged from
12.00 – 15.05, 12.60 – 15.30 and 13.05 – 15.60 per cent.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
FGN Bonds of 5-, 7- and 10-year tranches were re-opened
during the third quarter of 2012. The total amount offered,
subscribed to and allotted for the 5-, 7- and 10-year were
N210.00
billion,
N452.68
billion,
and
N210.00
billion,
respectively. The marginal rates were between 12.90 – 16.59
per cent, which were lower than the rates observed in the
preceding quarter. The decrease in the yield during the review
period was attributed to the increased interest particularly by
foreign portfolio investors arising from plans by JP Morgan
Chase & CO. to include some FGN bonds in its GBI-EM Index
from October 1st 2012.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The total Standing Lending Facility (SLF) granted during the
review period was N6,537.66 billion, compared with N7,367.68
billion in the second quarter of 2012. The decrease in the SLF
demanded and granted was due mainly to the unsuccessful
mop up exercise by the CBN as a result of speculative rates
quoted by authorized dealers at the secondary market
auctions. The total Standing Deposit Facility (SD) was N3,411.85
billion during the third quarter of 2012, representing an
increase of 92.2 per cent above the level in the preceding
Subscription for
FGN Bonds of
various maturities
moderated during
third quarter of
2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

quarter. The development was attributed to the decision of
the Central Bank to remunerate surpluses in excess of the
Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR).
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
Available data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of
the DMBs stood at N20,774.8 billion at the end of the third
quarter of 2012, representing an increase of 4.05 per cent
above the level at the end of the preceding quarter. The
funds,
which
were
sourced,
largely,
from
increased
mobilization of deposits, were used mainly to extend credit to
the private sector, accretion to capital accounts and
acquisition of unclassified assets. Central Bank‟s credit to the
DMBs, largely loans and advances, declined by 13.3 per cent
to N306.82 billion at the end of the review quarter.
At N12,287.3 billion, DMBs‟ credit to the domestic economy,
declined by 2.8 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed, largely, to the 22.1
per cent fall in claims on the Federal Government which more
than offset the 2.2 per cent increase in claims on the private
sector.
Total specified liquid assets of the DMBs stood at N5,476.9
billion, representing 47.7 per cent of their total current
liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio rose by 5.1
percentage points above the level at the end of the
preceding quarter, and was 17.7 percentage points above
the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-todeposit ratio, at 44.6 per cent was 9.2 percentage points
below the level at the end of the preceding quarter, and 35.4
percentage points below the prescribed maximum ratio of
80.0 per cent.
2.5
Discount Houses’ Activities
Total assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N291.0
billion at the end of third quarter of 2011, indicating a decline
of 19.4 and 12.8 per cent below the levels at the end of the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2011,
respectively. The fall in assets was accounted for, largely, by
the decline in claims on “others” and claim on federal

At 39.9 per cent,
the liquidity ratio
of the DMBs in
Q3 2012 was 9.9
percentage
points above the
stipulated
minimum ratio,
while the Loanto-deposit ratio
was within the
prescribed


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

government. Correspondingly, the fall in total liabilities was
attributed, largely, to the decline in the level of money-at-call
and capital and reserves during the period.
Discount houses‟ investment in Federal Government securities
of less than 91-day maturity increased by 197.6 per cent to
N29.1 billion and represented 13.2 per cent of their total
deposit liabilities. At this level, discount houses‟ investment was
also 46.8 percentage points below the prescribed minimum
level of 60.0 per cent for fiscal 2012. Total borrowing by the
discount houses was N15.4 billion, while their capital and
reserves stood at N34.6 billion. This resulted in a gearing ratio of
2:1, compared with the stipulated maximum of 50:1 for fiscal
2012.
2.6
Capital Market Developments
2.6.1
Secondary Market
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) during the
third quarter were mixed as major indices trended in opposite
direction. Both the volume and value of traded securities
declined by 17.4 and 7.5 per cent to 21.9 billion shares and to
N159.2 billion in 262,692 deals, compared with 26.5 billion
shares worth N172.2 billion in 238,043 deals in the preceding
quarter. The Financial Sector was the most active followed by
the Conglomerates. The Banking sub-sector remained the
most active on the Exchange with a traded volume of 8.0
billion shares, valued at N55.6 billion, in 73,449 deals.
Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)


2.6.2
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Bonds Market
Provisional data on the Over-the-Counter (OTC) bond market,
for the quarter indicated a turnover of 1,995.2 million units,
worth N1,971.1billion, in 10,937 deals.
2.6.3
New Issues Market
There were 1 new and 6 Supplementary listings in the review
quarter (see table below).
Table 4: New and Supplementary Securities Issue
S/N Company
Additional Shares
Reasons
1 Federal Government of Nigeria
50 Million
16% FGN June 2019 Series 3
2 Ecobank Transnational incorporation
401.2 Million
Schemes Shares
3 Niger Insurance Plc
2.7 Billion
Rights Issue
4 Premier Paints
48.0 Million
Conclusion of Special Placing
5 Nigerian Breweries
142.1 Million
Conclusion of Merger
6 Vono Plc
263.63 Million (Units)
Rights Issue
7 Unity Bank Plc
3.5 Billion Units
Bonus Issue

2.6.4
Market Capitalization
The total market capitalization for all listed securities (equities
and debt) stood at N13.8 trillion at the end of the quarter
under review. Market capitalization for the 187 listed securities
stood at N8.3 trillion, representing an increase of 20.3 per cent
over the level at the end of the preceding quarter. The
equities sub-sector, accounted for 60.1 per cent of the total
market capitalization.

2.6.5
NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index of listed securities which opened at
21,599.57 at the beginning of the quarter, closed at 26,011.64,
representing an increase of 20.4 per cent above the level at
Market
capitalization
and All-Share
Index trended
upwards during
Q3 2012.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

the end of preceding quarter. At end-September 2012, three
of the five sectoral indices, the NSE Banking, the NSE
Consumer goods and the NSE Insurance indices rose by 30.8,
29.2 and 15.1 per cent, respectively, while the NSE Oil/Gas
index declined by 7.5 per cent at the end of the third quarter.
The NSE Lotus II, launched during the quarter closed at
1,581.10 index point.
Figure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index

Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q2-12
Market Capitalization (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
25,384.1

24,268.2

24,770.5

24,621.2

24,980.2

23,373.0

20,730.6

20,652.5

21,599.6

26,011.6


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Economic Report Third Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations
3.1
Federation Account Operations
Available data showed that total federally-collected revenue
during the third quarter of 2012 stood at N2,797.59 billion,
representing an increase of 15.5 and 7.8 per cent above the
proportionate budget estimate and the level in the preceding
quarter of 2012, respectively. However, relative to the level in
the corresponding period of 2011, total federally-collected
revenue declined by 15.9 per cent (Fig. 6, Table 5).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Oil Revenue Gross
Non-Oil Revenue

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)

Oil Revenue

Non-Oil Revenue


At N1,936.15 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 69.2
per cent of the total, exceeded the proportionate budget
estimate by 16.7 per cent, but was lower than the level in the
preceding quarter by 2.3 per cent. The decline in oil receipts
relative to the preceding quarter was attributed, largely, to
the fall in the receipts from domestic crude oil and gas sales
during the period (Fig. 7, Table 6).
Gross federally
collected revenue
rose by 7.8 per
cent above the
level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components
-


Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
N billion
Others
PPT/Royalties
Crude oil/Gas Sales

Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)


Non-oil receipts, at N861.44 billion (30.8 per cent of the total),
was above the proportionate budget estimate and the level
in the preceding quarter by 12.8 and 40.1 per cent,
respectively. The increase in non-oil revenue relative to the
preceding quarter reflected, largely, the rise in Corporate
Taxes and Education tax during the review period (Fig. 8,
Table 7).


Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Oil Revenue

Crude oil/Gas Sales

PPT/Royalties

Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components
-

1,000
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
N billion
Others
Customs & Excise Duties
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Table 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Non-Oil Revenue

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes

Customs & Excise Duties

Others


As a percentage of the projected third quarter 2012 nominal
GDP, oil and non-oil revenue were 17.7 and 7.9 per cent,
respectively.
Of the gross federally-collected revenue (net), the sum of
N1,349.9 billion was transferred to the Federation Account for
distribution among the three tiers of government and the
13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government received
N642.8 billion, while the states and local governments
received N326.0 billion and N251.4 billion, respectively. The
balance of N129.8 billion went to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for
distribution by the oil-producing states. Also, the Federal
Government received N24.9 billion from the VAT Pool
Account, while the state and local governments received
N83.3 billion and N58.3 billion, respectively. During the period
under review, the sum of N26.2 billion was drawn from the
Excess Crude Account (ECA) to bridge the short-fall in
revenue for the period and was shared as follows: Federal
Government (N12.0 billion), State Government (N6.1 billion)
and Local Governments (N4.7 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund
The sum of
N1,349.9 billion
out of the
federally
collected revenue
(net) was shared
by the three tiers
of government
and the 13.0 %
Derivation Fund.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

(N3.4 billion). Additional N22.9 billion and N106.6 billion from
NNPC refund and Subsidy Re-Investment and Empowerment
Programme (SURE-P), respectively, was also distributed to the
three tiers of government and 13% per cent Derivation. Thus,
the total allocation to the three tiers of government in the third
quarter of 2012 amounted to N1,672.31, representing 2.3 per
cent below the 2012 quarterly budget estimate.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government

At N762.64 billion, the Federal Government retained revenue
for the third quarter of 2012 was lower than both the
proportionate budget estimate and receipts in the second
quarter by 23.3 and 10.5 per cent respectively. Relative to the
receipts in the corresponding quarter of 2011, Federal
Government retained revenue was lower by 35.4 per cent. Of
this amount, the Federal Government share from the
Federation
Account,
VAT
Pool
Account
and
FGN
Independent Revenue were N642.81 billion, N24.99 billion and
N7.75 billion, while “Others” accounted for N87.09 billion,
respectively (Fig. 9, Table 8).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue
Federation Account (84.3%)
VAT Pool
Account (3.3%)
FGN Independent
Revevue (1.0%)
Others
(11.4%))


Federal government
estimated retained
revenue and total
expenditure were
lower than the
proportionate
budget estimates
for the quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Retained Revenue

Expenditure

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


Total expenditure for third quarter stood at N1,221.73 billion,
indicating a decline of 4.4 per cent relative to the level of the
quarterly budget estimate. It was however, higher than the
level in the preceding quarter by 14.8 per cent. The
development (relative to the quarterly budget estimate) was
attributed to the low release of capital outlay during the
period. A breakdown of total expenditure showed that the
recurrent component accounted for 76.1 per cent, capital
component 21.5 per cent, while statutory transfers accounted
for the balance of 2.4 per cent (Fig. 10). Further breakdown of
the
recurrent expenditure
showed that the
non-debt
component accounted for 83.0 per cent, while debt service
payments accounted for the balance of 17.0 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N459.09 billion or 4.2 per cent of the
third quarter nominal GDP, compared with the quarterly
budgeted deficit and the preceding period deficit of N284.05
billion and N211.8 billion, respectively. The deficit was financed
mainly from domestic sources, particularly through the
issuance of additional FGN Bonds.
Figure10: Federal Government Expenditure
Recurrent
Capital
Transfers
Capital
(21.5%)
Transfers
(2.4%)
Recurrent (76.1%)

The fiscal
operations of the
FG resulted in an
estimated deficit
of N459.09 in Q3
2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

Total
allocation
to
state
governments
(including
the
Federation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and share of VAT
receipts) stood at N601.47 billion during the review quarter.
This represented a decline of 5.4 and 2.6 per cent, below the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter
of 2011, respectively.
Further breakdown showed that, at N518.16 billion, receipts
from Federation Account constituted 86.1 per cent of the
total, but declined by 5.5 and 2.6 per cent relative to the
levels in the preceding quarter and corresponding quarter of
2011, respectively. At N83.31, receipts from VAT constituted
13.9 per cent of the total, but declined by 4.5 and 2.3 per cent
relative to the levels in the preceding quarter and
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. On a monthly
basis, the sum of N198.64 billion, N199.24 billion and N203.59
billion was allocated as statutory allocations and VAT receipts
to the 36 state governments in July, August and September
2012, respectively.

3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils

Total receipts by the Local Governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts during the third quarter of 2012, stood
at N342.15 billion. This amount was lower than both the levels
in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2011 by
3.1 and 30.7 per cent respectively. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N283.83 (83.0 per
cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for the balance of
N58.32 (17.0 per cent). On a monthly basis, the sum of N114.52
billion, N112.53 billion and N115.10 billion was allocated to the
774 local governments in July, August and September 2012,
respectively.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Available aggregate output growth measured by the real gross
domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.5 per cent, compared with 6.4
per cent in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed
largely to the growth in the contribution of agriculture and
communication sectors. Crude oil production was estimated at 2.26
million barrels per day (mbd) or 207.92 million barrels for the quarter.
The end-period inflation rate for the third quarter of 2012, on yearon-year basis, was 11.3 per cent, compared with 12.9 and 10.3 per
cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2011, respectively. The inflation rate on a 12-month moving average
basis was 11.8 per cent, compared with the 11.3 and 11.4 per cent in
the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2011.
4.1
Aggregate Output
Aggregate output in the third quarter measured by gross
domestic product (GDP) at 1990 basic prices grew by 6.5 per
cent, compared with 6.4 per cent recorded in the preceding
quarter. The development in the review quarter was attributed
to the growth in the contribution of agriculture and
communication sectors. Real non-oil GDP grew at 7.6 per cent
and accounted for 86.6 per cent of total GDP in the review
quarter. Real oil GDP, comprising crude petroleum and
natural gas, grew by 0.08 per cent when compared with the
level in the preceding quarter of 2012 and accounted for 13.4
per cent of the total GDP (Fig. 11, Table 9).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 11: Real GDP Growth Rate and Share of Oil and Non-oil in GDP

-2

Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
% of GDP
Percent
Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
Non-Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
GDP Growth (LHS)
Oil GDP Growth(LHS)
Non-oil GDP Growth (LHS)


Table 10: Growth Rate of Real GDP and Sectoral Shares (Percent)
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Growth Rate (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-oil

Share in Real GDP (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-Oil

Agricultural Sector
Available data indicated that agricultural activities in most
parts of the country during the third quarter were adversely
affected by the weather condition. Weather condition during
the review period was characterized by heavy rain. The
resultant
widespread
incidences
of
flooding
caused
destruction of farmlands. Worst hit were the areas along the
River Niger Plain. The extensive impact on agricultural
activities, particularly through flooding, created concern
about possibility of food scarcity in the coming year.
A total of N4,032.01 million was guaranteed to 18,957 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the third quarter of 2012. This represented an increase of 153.4
and 13.5 per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter,


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

and the corresponding period of 2011, respectively.
A sub-sectoral analysis of the loans guaranteed indicated that
the food crops sub-sector received the largest share of
N2,590.5 million (64.2 per cent) for 13,607 beneficiaries, while
the livestock sub-sector got N836.3 million (20.7 per cent) for
1,774 beneficiaries. Also, 2,425 beneficiaries in the mixed crops
sub-sector obtained N212.2 million (5.3 per cent), while N186.9
million (4.6 per cent) was granted to 350 beneficiaries in the
cash crop sub-sector. 273 beneficiaries in the fisheries subsector received N151.5 million (3.8 per cent), while 528
beneficiaries in the „Other‟ sub-sector received N54.6 million
(1.4 per cent). Further analysis showed that, 36 states and the
Federal Capital Territory benefited from the scheme during
the quarter, with the highest and lowest sums of N1,449.6
million (36.0 per cent) and N5.7 million (0.1 per cent)
guaranteed to farmers in Delta and Rivers states, respectively.
At end-September 2012, the total amount released by the
CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme
(CACS) to the participating banks for disbursement stood at
N198.42 billion (for two hundred and sixty two projects). The
beneficiaries included thirty state governments (Table 10).
At end-September
2012, the total
amount released by
the CBN under the
CACS to participating
banks stood at
N198.42 billion.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.3
Industrial Production
Industrial activities during the third quarter of 2012 indicated
marginal improvement relative to the level in the preceding
quarter. At 137.48 (1990=100), the estimated index of industrial
production rose marginally by 0.2 and 2.5 per cent, over the
levels
attained
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. The development
reflected the increased activities in the electricity, mining and
manufacturing sub-sectors.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 106.67
(1990=100), increased by 0.3 and 4.5 per cent, over the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of
2011, respectively. Capacity utilization was estimated to
increase by 0.9 percentage points above the level in the
preceding quarter to 57.65 per cent. The development was
attributed to the improved electricity supply during the review
period (Fig. 12, Table 11).
There was an
improvement in
industrial activities
during Q3 2012 on
account of increased
activities in the
electricity, mining
and manufacturing
sub-sectors.
Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amount Disbursed (N billion) Number of Projects/State Governments

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
41.76

Zenith Bank
26.96

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
22.21

Unity Bank Plc
19.51

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
17.97

Stanbic IBTC Bank
11.74

Access Bank Plc
10.33

Skye Bank Plc
9.22

Fidelity Bank Plc
8.58

Sterling Bank Plc
6.82

GTBank Plc
5.80

FCMB Plc.
4.79

ECOBANK
3.67

Citibank Plc
3.00

Diamond Bank Plc
2.74

Mainstreet Bank Plc
2.00

WEMA Bank
0.74

Enterprise Bank
0.38

Keystone Bank
0.20

TOTAL
198.42

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 12: Capacity Utilization Rate

Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Percent

At 146.96 (1990=100), the index of mining production
increased marginally by 0.2 and 4.6 per cent above the levels
attained in the preceding quarter and corresponding period
of 2011. The increase in mining production during the quarter
was accounted for by the rise in crude oil and gas production.
At 3,357.5 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation
rose by 2.4 per cent, over the level attained in the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed to the increase in
gas supply to the thermal stations and increase in water levels
at the hydro stations.
At 2,933.7 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption,
increased by 2.8 per cent over the level in the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed to the increase in
power supply as a result of improved generation (Fig. 13, Table
11).


Average
electricity
generation and
consumption
rose during the
quarter under
review.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 13: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100)

Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12
Index
Mining
Electricity
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Table 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Q1-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Electricity

Capacity Utilization (%)

Petroleum Sector
Nigeria‟s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, was estimated at 2.26 million barrels per
day (mbd) or 207.92 million barrels during the third quarter of
2012, compared with 2.13 mbd or 193.83 million barrels in the
preceding quarter. This represented an increase in production
level of 0.13 mbd or 6.1 per cent. Consequently, crude oil
export was estimated at 1.81 mbd or (166.52 million barrels) in
the review period, compared with 1.68 mbd or (152.88 million
barrels) in the preceding quarter, representing an increase of
7.7 per cent. The increase was attributed to the decline in
crude oil theft in the Niger Delta due to improved security
conditions in the region. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels during the
period under review.
Crude oil and
natural gas
production and
exports
increased
during Q3 2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

At an estimated average of US$111.04 per barrel, the price of
Nigeria‟s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), rose by
1.6 per cent, over the level in the preceding quarter. The
average prices of other competing crudes namely, the West
Texas Intermediate, the U.K Brent and the Forcados also rose,
to US$91.20, US$110.14 and US$112.08 per barrel, respectively,
from US$88.37, US$108.19 and US$110.94 per barrel in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, the average price of OPEC‟s
basket of eleven crude streams also rose by 0.6 per cent from
the level in the preceding quarter to US$106.72 but declined
by 1.6 per cent when compared to the level in the
corresponding period of 2011. The development was
attributed largely to the constraints in North Sea supplies and
the drop in crude oil stockpiles in the US. (Fig. 14, Table 12).
Figure14: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q3-12
Q2-12
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Average crude oil
prices, including
Nigeria’s
reference crude,
Bonny Light (37o
API), rose in the
international
crude oil market
in Q3 2012.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.5
Consumer Prices3
Available
data
showed
that
the
all-items
composite
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the third quarter of
2012 was 138.0 (November 2009=100), representing an
increase of 2.0 and 11.3 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2011,
respectively. The development was attributed, largely, to the
increase in the prices of food items and non-alcoholic
beverages, as well as housing, water, electricity, clothing and
footwear, transport, gas and other fuels.
The urban all-items CPI at the end of the third quarter of 2012,
was 137.6 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 2.2
and 14.2 per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. Similarly, the
rural all-items CPI at the end of the quarter, at 139.0
(November 2009=100), represented an increase of 1.8 and 9.1
per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively (Fig. 15, Table 13).
Figure15: Consumer Price Index

Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural


3 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria
Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 18th
October 2010.
The general price
level rose in Q3 2012
relative to Q2 2012.
This was on account
of the increase in
the prices of food
items and nonalcoholic beverages,
as well as clothing
and footwear,
transport, gas and
other fuel.


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Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Composite

Urban

Rural

The end-period inflation rate for the third quarter of 2012, on a
year-on-year basis was 11.3 per cent, compared with 12.9 and
10.3 per cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2011, respectively. The inflation rate on a twelvemonth moving average basis for the third quarter was 11.9 per
cent, compared with 11.3 and 11.4 per cent in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively
(Fig. 16, Table 14).
Figure 16: Inflation Rate

Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year

Table 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


The headline
inflation (y-o-y)
stood at 11.3 per
cent in Q3 2012.


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5.0
External Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN in the third quarter of 2012 increased by 43.9 and 0.9 per cent
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2011, respectively. Outflow decreased by 10.1 and 39.0
per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. Total non-oil export
receipts by banks declined by 40.9 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter. The average Naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the US
dollar, depreciated by 0.02 and 0.6 per cent to N157.39 and N161.79
per dollar at the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) and
Bureau De Change (BDC) segments of the market, respectively. It
however appreciated by 0.03 per cent to N159.36 at the interbank
segment. The gross external reserves rose by 14.8 per cent from the
preceding quarter’s level.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Provisional data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN
showed that inflow during the third quarter of 2012 amounted
to US$14.46 billion, representing an increase of 43.9 and 0.9
per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter and
corresponding period of 2011. Outflow amounted to US$8.63
billion, showing a decline of 10.1 and 39.0 per cent below the
levels in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of
2011. This resulted in a net inflow of US$5.83, compared with a
net inflow of US$0.46 and US$0.18 recorded in the preceding
quarter and corresponding period of 2011, respectively. The
rise in inflow relative to the preceding quarter was attributed
to the increase in crude oil sales and non-oil receipts, while the
fall in outflow was attributed decline in wDAS utilization. Fig.
17, Table 15).
Foreign exchange
inflow through the
CBN rose by 43.9
per cent, while
outflow declined by
10.1 per cent, to
post a net inflow of
US$5.83 billion
during third quarter
of 2012.


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Figure17: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN
-10,000
-5,000


Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow

Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Inflow

Outflow

Netflow


Provisional data on aggregate foreign exchange flows
through the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to
US$32.01 billion, representing an increase of 16.5 and 8.0 per
cent above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011. Oil sector receipts, which
accounted for 37.1 per cent of the total, stood at US$11.9
billion, compared with the respective levels of US$9.7 billion
and
US$12.6
billion
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
corresponding quarter of 2011.
Non-oil public sector inflows, which accounted for 8.0 per cent
of the total foreign exchange flows, increased significantly by
565.8 per cent above the preceding quarter‟s level, while
autonomous inflow, which accounted for 54.8 per cent,
increased by 0.7 per cent above the preceding quarter‟s
level.
At US$9.2 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy fell by 8.9 and 36.4 per cent below the level in
Autonomous
inflows into the
economy rose by
0.7 per cent, in Q3
2012 relative to
the preceding
quarter’s level.


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the preceding quarter and corresponding quarter of 2011,
respectively. The decline in outflow, relative to the preceding
quarter, was accounted for by a 21.7 per cent decline in the
funding of WDAS.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters stood at
US$571.1 million at the end of the review period. This indicated
a decline of 41.0 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter, but an increase of 58.9 per cent above the level in
the corresponding quarter of 2011. The development, relative
to preceding quarter, was attributed, largely, to the fall in the
exports of food, manufactured agriculture and mineral
products during the review quarter, which more than offset
the significant rise in the transport sector. A breakdown of the
proceeds in the review quarter showed that, industrial
products, manufactured products, agricultural products,
mineral, food products and transport earned US$244.5 million,
US$184.0 million, US$75.2 million, US$56.6 million, US$10.4 million,
and US$0.7 million, respectively.
The shares of industrial products, manufactured products,
agricultural products, mineral, food products and transport in
non-oil export proceeds were 42.8, 32.2, 13.2, 9.9, 1.8 and 0.1
per cent, respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

The invisible sector accounted for the bulk (33.0 per cent) of
total foreign exchange disbursed in the third quarter of 2012,
followed by mineral and oil sector (20.0 per cent). Other
beneficiary sectors, in descending order included: industrial
sector (18.0 per cent), food products (13.0 per cent),
manufactured products (11.0 per cent), transport sector (4.0
per cent) and agricultural products (1.0 per cent) (Fig.18).

.
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed during
Q3 2012.
Total non-oil export
earnings declined
during the third
quarter of 2012 on
account of decline in
receipt from exports
of agriculture,
minerals, food and
manufactured
products.


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Figure18: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Percent of Total
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
Estimated foreign exchange demand by the authorized
dealers in the third quarter stood at US$6.74 billion, indicating
a decline of 9.0 and 54.8 per cent below the levels in the
preceding quarter and corresponding quarter of 2011. The
sum of US$6.8 billion was sold by the CBN during the review
period, indicating a decrease of 21.7 and 45.3 per cent below
the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period quarter of 2011, respectively (Fig. 19, Table 16).
Figure 19: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
US$ billion
Forex Sales at WDAS
Forex Demand at WDAS
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Demand and
Supply of foreign
exchange by
authorized
dealers declined
during Q3 2012.


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Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Forex Sales at WDAS

Forex Demand at WDAS

Supply of Forex to BDC

Total Forex Supply(BDC and WDAS)


Under the WDAS, the average exchange rate of the Naira visà-vis the US dollar depreciated by 0.02 and 2.6 per cent to
N157.39 per US dollar from N157.35 and N153.28 per US dollar
in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2011,
respectively. In the bureau-de-change segment of the
market, the naira traded at an average of N161.79 per US
dollar, indicating a depreciation of 0.6 and 0.1 per cent
relative to the levels in the preceding quarter and
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively. At the interbank
segment, the Naira exchanged for an average of N159.36 to
the US dollar, indicating an appreciation of 0.03 per cent and
depreciation of 3.2 per cent when compared with N159.41
and N154.30 per US dollar in the previous quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2011, respectively (Fig. 20, Table 17).
The premium between the WDAS and the bureaux-dechange rates widened from 2.2 per cent in the preceding
quarter to 2.8 per cent in the third quarter, while that between
the WDAS and interbank remained unchanged at 1.3 per
cent as in the preceding quarter, (Fig. 21, Table 16).
Figure 20: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
N/US $
Average WDAS/RDAS
Average BDC
Average Interbank


Relative to the
preceding quarter,
the Naira exchange
rate vis-à-vis the US
dollar depreciated at
the wDAS and BDC
but appreciated at
the interbank
segments of the
market in Q3 2012.
The premium
between the wDAS
rate and the rates at
the interbank and
BDC segments of the
market stood at 2.8
and 1.3 per cent,
respectively.


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Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
WDAS/RDAS

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
WDAS/BDC

WDAS/Interbank


Figure 21: Exchange Rate Premium

Q3-09
Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Percent
WDAS/BDC
WDAS/Interbank


5.5
Gross External Reserves
The gross external reserves at the end of the third quarter of
2012 stood at US$40.64 billion, indicating an increase of 14.8
per cent above the US$35.41 billion recorded at the end of
the preceding quarter. A breakdown of the reserves showed
that CBN holding stood at US$28.00 billion (68.9 per cent),
Federal Government holding was US$3.37 billion (8.3 per cent)
and the Federation Account portion (Excess Crude) was
US$9.27 billion (22.8 per cent) (Fig. 22, Table 18).


Gross external
reserves rose
during the third
quarter of 2012.


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Figure 22: Gross External Reserves


Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
US$ million

Table 19: Gross External Reserves (US$ million)
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
External Reserves
37,468.4

34,589.0

32,347.5

33,221.8

31,890.5

31,740.2

32,639.8

35,190.8

35,412.5

40,636.8


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6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Persistence of the euro area debt crisis and continued threats
of slowing economic growth in the US has caused the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to revise
global economic growth forecast. In the latest World
Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2012, the IMF warned of
higher risks of a steeper slowdown. US economy is forecast to
expand at 2.2 per cent, Japan, Brazil and India economies
also had their growth forecast revised down to 2.2, 1.5 and 4.9
per cent respectively, while the euro area economy is
projected to contract by 0.4 per cent. Global growth is
forecast to moderate to 3.3 per cent from the 3.5 per cent
forecast in the second quarter.
Growth, generally in oil-producing economies and SubSaharan African countries is projected to remain high even as
activity in China slowed sharply in the review period, largely
due to tightening in credit conditions (in response partly to
threats of a real estate bubble), weaker external demand and
return to more sustainable pace of public investment.
The major threats to world economic growth in the short to
medium-term included: weakness in the labour and housing
markets and need for further repairs in both public and private
sector balance sheets in the advanced economies; past
policy tightening and weaker external demand in emerging
economies particularly Brazil, Japan among others; slowing
growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) largely due
to uncertainty associated with political and economic
transition in the aftermath of the Arab spring and weak terms
of trade; and weaker external demand and increasingly
constrained environment for private sector activities.
6.2 Global Inflation
The observed ease of inflationary pressure from the first half of
the year continued through the third quarter. Generally, in
2012, receding commodity price shocks and slowdown in
global activity in many advanced economies had led to
deceleration in inflation. Headline inflation in emerging market


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declined to 5.5 per cent down by about 2 percentage points
from the level in the second quarter, while it stood at 1.5 per
cent in the advanced economies.
The outlook for the rest of 2012 is for further easing of
inflationary pressure particularly on the advanced economies.
Forecast is predicated largely
on the assumption of
unchanged commodity prices even with growing concern
about possibility of rising food prices.

6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Persistent decline in oil production by OPEC countries (Libya,
Angola and Iran) and non-OPEC countries led to shortage
supply during the review period. Non-OPEC supply was
affected by civil conflict, labour strikes, bad weather and
planned maintenance. This development sustained the price
increase which began in July with Brent Crude Price reaching
US$116 in early September, clear 28.0 per cent above the
lowest level recorded June 2012. However, with future
(December 2013) contracts trading at US$107 per barrel,
market watchers expect lower oil prices over the medium
term.
Following the observed increases in June and July 2012, global
commodity prices declined sharply in August 2012. The broadbased price fall was sustained to the end of the third quarter.
Particularly with respect to agricultural commodities, the price
decline in August, which followed initial spikes of the last two
months of the previous quarter, was caused, largely, by the
droughts in the United States. However, the price index for
non-energy commodities stood at about 3.0 per cent above
the level at the beginning of the year.
6.4 International Financial Markets
Global markets recorded largely positive movements in the
third quarter of 2012. This development was attributed to the
persistent favorable US macroeconomic data and impact of
the continued efforts to resolve and counter the effects of the
Eurozone crisis.


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In the period under review, performance of international
stocks was stable with most markets closing in the positive and
indices of particularly developing nations displaying stronger
growth than those of the emerging and advanced markets.
In Africa, the Egyptian EGX CSE 30, Nigeria Stock Exchange
(NSE) ASI, Kenyan Nairobi NSE 20, South African JSE AS, and
Ghana GSE ASI indices gained 23.6, 20.4, 7.2, 6.1 and 0.2 per
cent, respectively.
In North America, the S&P/TSX Composite led the gainers
closing higher at 6.2 per cent above the level at the end of
previous quarter. The S&P 500 and Mexico Bolsa indices rose
by 5.8 and 1.7 per cent, respectively. In South America, the
Brazilian Bovespa, Columbian IGBC General and Argentine
Merval indices rose by 8.9, 4.8 and 4.5 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, the German DAX led the gainers closing the period
12.5 per cent higher. The Russian MICEX, France CAC 40 and
FTSE 100 indices also closed higher, gaining 5.3, 5.0 and 2.9 per
cent respectively. In Asia, stock movement was however
mixed as indices moved in varying directions amongst the
nations. While India BSE Sensex index closed 7.9 per cent
higher, the Japanese Nikkei 225 and China‟s Shanghai Stock
Exchange A indices declined by 1.5 and 6.3 per cent,
respectively.

6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of relevance to the domestic economy during the
review quarter included: the Stakeholders‟ Forum on Capital
Markets Integration in West Africa held in Accra, Ghana from
23-24 August, 2012. (The objective of the Forum was to
resuscitate efforts aimed at implementing the long standing
capital markets integration initiatives in the West Africa which
was stunted by challenges such as lack of political will and
global financial crisis). The Forum identified important areas of
collaboration with the Central Banks to include payment
settlements, capital account movement, foreign exchange


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controls and money laundering. The central banks in the subregion were granted observer status on the newly constituted
Governing Council. In charting the way forward, the West
African Capital Markets Integration Process Council was
constituted at the meeting, with the Secretariat domiciled at
West African Monetary Institute (WAMI) and members drawn
from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Stock
Exchanges of member countries. A timeline of three (3)
months was given to the technical committee to come up
with results at the next meeting scheduled to take place in
Nigeria in November 2012.
Also, the ECOWAS Central Bank Governors met and
deliberated on recent developments during the Mid-Year
2012 statutory meetings of West African Monetary Agency
(WAMA), WAMI and West African Institute for Financial and
Economic Management (WAIFEM) held in Monrovia, Liberia
from July 11–12, 2012. The Governors considered and adopted
the Reports of WAIFEM including the training programme,
which recorded 15 sessions with 513 recipients during the first
half of 2012.
At the Board meeting of WAMA, Governors considered the
work programme of the Agency with further deliberations on
multilateral surveillance of ECOWAS member countries,
statistical and policy harmonization, international financial
reporting standards (IFRS), developments on exchange rates
of member countries, research papers, and accession of
Cape Verde to WAMA. The Governors noted the inflationary
pressures and unsustainable performance on macroeconomic
convergence,
expanding
budget
deficits
of
member
countries, developments on the exchange rates of member
countries and directed WAMA to make further consultations
with other relevant stakeholders in the region. The Governors
also directed the Agency to design a template for tracking
migration to the International Financial Reporting Standards
(IFRS), but leave its implementation to the respective national
authorities.
At the meeting of WAMI, the Governors considered the
Macroeconomic Performance and Convergence Report, and
urged member countries to redouble efforts to achieve the


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stipulated primary and secondary criteria for the WAMZ
Monetary Union. This was pertinent because of the limited time
to the 2015 deadline for the take-off of the WAMZ Monetary
Union and 2020 for the ECOWAS monetary union.
The Central Bank Governors also met and considered the
report of the College of Supervisors of the WAMZ on the fringes
of the ECOWAS institutions‟ meetings on July 12, 2012 in
Monrovia, Liberia. The report (based on the financial system
stability in the zone) identified the challenges of growing nonperforming loans, excess liquidity in the banking system, high
interest rates and expanding operation costs. The College
proposed that WAMI should undertake a study to provide
policy guide on increasing lending rates and wide interest rate
spread in the region.
The 36th Ordinary Meeting of the Assembly of Governors of
the Association of African Central Banks (AACB) was held in
Algeria, on August 30, 2012. The Assembly of Governors
adopted the following reports: Report on the AACB
Symposium, held on August 11, 2011 in Lilongwe, Malawi;
Report on the 35th Ordinary Meeting of the AACB Assembly of
Governors, held on August 2011 in Lilongwe, Malawi; Report
on the Implementation of the African Monetary Cooperation
Programme (AMCP); Report on the Continental Seminar for
year 2012; Progress Report on the “Community of African
Banking Supervisors” (CABS); Report on Contributions to the
AACB‟s budget for year 2012; Report on Accession to the
Revised Statutes; and the Progress Report on the activities of
the AUC-AACB Joint Committee. The Assembly of Governors
approved the theme “Financial Inclusion in Africa: Financial
Innovations Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial
Sector Stability” for the 2013 Symposium and “The Role of
Central Banks in Facilitating Sustainable Economic Growth in
Africa” for the 2013 AACB Continental Seminar.
In another development, the 19th Ordinary Summit of the
Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU)
were held from July 15 – 16, 2012 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia with
the
theme
“Boosting
Intra-African-Trade.
The
African
Presidents and government representatives exchanged views
on the development agenda of the continent and also


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deliberated on the future of the Union and its achievements.
Elections were held into the position of new Chairperson,
Deputy Chairperson and six of the eight Commissioners of the
African Union Commission. The elected officers are to pilot the
affairs of the Commission for the next four years.
Finally, the meeting of the Joint Technical Committee of the
African Union Commission (AUC) and the Association of
African Central Banks (AACB) was held from 23 to 25 July, 2012
in Abuja, Nigeria. The objective of the meeting was to
consider the draft Joint Strategy Paper for the Establishment of
the African Central Bank, prepared by the Joint Study Group
of the ACB. The Head of the ACB Steering Committee
presented the summary of the Draft Strategy for the
establishment of the ACB. The areas covered include:
preconditions for successful economic and monetary union;
Lessons
and
Challenges
to
Economic
and
Monetary
Integration; Recommendations of the Joint Strategy and way
forward.


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APPENDIX TABLES


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Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank
Banks

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Central Bank

Banks

Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/
6534.8
6615.8
6531.9

6883.7
7651.46
Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN
289.5
711.1

1094.8
1148.7
1768.27
N billion

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as
Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector
5.4
12.3

-0.3
3.9
1.6
Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)
-2.6


Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foeign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
-8.5
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)

Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Crude

Others

Expenditure

Recurrent

Capital

Transfers

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


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Table A4: Gross Domestic Product at 1990 Basic Prices


Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
1 Provisional.


Q2-20111
Q3-20111
Q4-20111
Q1-20121
Q2-20121 Q3-20121
Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

N billion
Relative Share (%)
Growth Rate (%)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter