ECONOMIC REPORT
FIRST QUARTER 2020


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page ii
Economic Report First Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
and the private sector, as well as general readers.


Subscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations,
embassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue
without a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank
of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.

The Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iii
Economic Report First Quarter

Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iv
Economic Report First Quarter


Text Tables

Appendix Tables


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page v
Economic Report First Quarter

Figures


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page vi
Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary policy stance by retaining the
Monetary Policy Rate at 13.5 per cent. Despite this, the broad measure of money supply
(M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, rose by 2.5 per cent to N35,635.13 billion at end-March
2020, compared with the growth of 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of
2019 and the corresponding quarter of 2019, respectively. The development was due,
mainly, to the 10.2 and 5.0 per cent increase in net foreign assets of the banking system
and domestic claims, respectively. The increase in net foreign assets was due, largely, to
the exchange rate adjustment, while the rise in domestic claims reflected the increase in
net claims on central Government and claims on other sector.
The financial market major indicators were relatively stable. However, as the global
economy reeled from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices plunged downwards,
following Saudi Arabia’s oil price slash, and the unprecedented disruptions in global
supply chains. Global stock markets turned bearish as share prices nosedived worldwide.
The level of liquidity in the period surged, due to repayment of matured CBN bills,
maturing Federal Government (FGN) Bonds and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs,) and fiscal
disbursements to the three tiers of Government. The provisioning and settlement of
foreign exchange purchases, auctioning of the CBN bills, FGN Bonds and the Nigerian
Treasury Bills (NTBs), as well as, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) debits, however, moderated the
liquidity.
The average prime and maximum lending rates rose by 0.02 percentage point and 0.47
percentage point, respectively, to 15.01 per cent and 30.70 per cent, in the review
period, above their levels in the preceding quarter. The rise in interest rate reflected the
liquidity condition in the system. The average term deposit rate fell by 1.46 percentage
points to 6.27 per cent. The spread between the average term deposit and average
maximum lending rates widened by 1.93 percentage points to 24.43 percentage points
in the first quarter of 2020. The inflation rate of 12.26 per cent for March 2020 resulted in
negative real rates for deposits, but positive real rates for the prime and maximum lending
rates. Developments on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bearish in the review
period, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Federally-collected revenue, in the first quarter of 2020, fell below both the quarterly
budget estimate and the receipt in the preceding quarter by 36.0 per cent and 4.8 per
cent, respectively. Provisional Federal Government retained revenue, in the review
quarter, was N864.88 billion, while total estimated expenditure amounted to N2,327.80
billion, resulting in an estimated deficit of N1,462.92 billion.
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by preparation of land for
early wet season planting, harvesting of tree crops and irrigation-fed vegetables. In the
live-stock sub-sector, farmers continued to intensify efforts towards raising poultry birds
and cattle in anticipation of the 2020 Easter festivity. The end-period headline inflation,
on year-on-year and 12-month moving average bases in the first quarter of 2020, stood
at 12.26 per cent and 11.62 per cent, respectively. The development was attributed,
largely, to food supply shortages caused by the persisting security challenges in
producing regions, the effect of the increase in VAT rate from 5.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent,

1 The March 2020 data on monetary aggregates and First Quarter 2020 data on government spending and
foreign exchange flows were provisional.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

the negative supply shocks, arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased food
demand in preparation for the Easter festivity
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow, through the CBN, rose by 11.2 per cent and 9.4 per
cent, respectively, relative to their levels in the fourth quarter of 2019. Total non-oil export
proceeds received by banks increased by 26.9 per cent, compared with the level at endDecember 2019. The average exchange rates at the ’Investors’ and ‘Exporters’ window,
the BDC and the Inter-bank segments of the foreign exchange market were N365.06/US$,
N363.48/US$ and N310.57/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At US$33.69 billion, the
gross external reserves fell by 11.6 per cent, compared with the level at end-December
2019.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 97.58 mbd and 99.46 mbd,
respectively, in the first quarter of 2020, compared with 100.95 mbd and 99.32 mbd
demanded and supplied in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nigeria’s crude oil production,
including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at an average of 1.84 mbd
or 167.44 mb in the review quarter, compared with 1.85 mbd or 170.20 mb in the
preceding quarter. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370
API), was US$52.51per barrel in the first quarter of 2020, compared with US$65.71 per barrel
in the fourth quarter of 2019. The movement in oil prices was driven, mainly, by falling
global demand amidst the ravaging impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing
price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Major international developments and meetings of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: the Extra-Ordinary Meeting of the Ministers for
Finance and the Committee of Governors of the Central Banks of the Member States of
the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), held in Abuja, Nigeria, on January 16, 2020; the
2019 End-of-Year Statutory Meeting of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
and the Operations and Administration Committee of West African Monetary Agency
(WAMA), held in Freetown, Sierra Leone from February 6 – 13, 2020; the 41st Meeting of
the Technical Committee of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic
Management (WAIFEM), held in Freetown, Sierra Leone on February 9, 2020; the 2019
End-of-Year Statutory Meetings of the WAMZ held at the International Conference
Centre, Freetown, Sierra Leone from February 10 – 14, 2020; and the 33rd Ordinary Session
of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union, held in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia from February 9 – 10, 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
The Bank maintained its monetary policy stance by keeping the Monetary
Policy Rate at 13.5 per cent in the review period. Over the level at endDecember 2019, broad money supply (M3), ), rose by 2.5 per cent at endMarch 2020, reflecting the 10.2 per cent and 5.0 per cent growth in net foreign
assets of the banking system and domestic claims, respectively. The increase
in net foreign assets was due, largely, to the exchange rate adjustment, while
the rise in domestic claims reflected the increase in net claims on central
Government and claims on other sector. Narrow money supply (M1) rose by
5.0 per cent, due, largely, to 7.8 per cent increase transferable deposits.
Money market indicators were relatively stable during the review period.
However, as the global economy reeled from the effects of COVID-19
pandemic, oil prices plunged, following Saudi Arabia’s oil price slash, and the
unprecedented disruptions in global supply chains. Activities on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) indicated bearish developments during the first quarter
of 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic that led to the near total lockdown
in the global economy.

2.1
Monetary and Credit Developments
In the review period, the Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary
policy stance by retaining the Monetary Policy Rate at 13.5 per cent.
Despite this, the broad measure of money supply (M3), on quarter-onquarter basis, rose by 2.5 per cent to N35,635.13 billion at end-March
2020, compared with the growth of 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent at the
end of fourth quarter of 2019 and the corresponding quarter of 2019,
respectively. The development was due, mainly, to the 10.2 and 5.0 per
cent increase in net foreign assets of the banking system and domestic
claims. The rise in net foreign assets was due, largely, to the exchange
rate adjustment, while that of domestic claims reflected the increase in
net claims on central Government and claims on other sector.
At N11,063.13 billion, narrow money supply (M1), on quarter-on-quarter
basis, grew by 5.0 per cent at end-March 2020, compared with the
growth of 9.0 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, but was
in contrast to the decline of 5.0 per cent recorded at end of the first
quarter of 2019. The growth in narrow money supply (M1) at end-March
2020, reflected, wholly, the 7.8 per cent rise in transferable deposits
(Figure 1, Table 1).
Other deposits, on quarter-on-quarter basis, grew by 8.4 per cent to

2 The monetary aggregate numbers used for the first quarter 2020 report are provisional.
Monetary
aggregates recorded
an increase in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

N19,785.23 billion at end-March 2020, compared with the growth of 6.1
per cent and 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the
corresponding period of 2019, respectively. The growth in other
deposits was attributed to the increase in savings, time and foreign
currency deposits of other depository corporations (Figure 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3

Source: CBN
Claims on domestic economy (net), on quarter-on-quarter basis, grew
by 5.0 per cent to N37,975.86 billion at end-March 2020, reflecting,
wholly, the 2.6 and 5.8 per cent increase in net claims on Government
and claims on other sectors, compared with the growth of 1.4 per cent
and 15.9 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first
quarter of 2019, respectively.
Net banking system claims on Government, on quarter-on-quarter
basis, grew by 2.6 per cent at end-March 2020, compared with a
growth of 48.0 per cent in the first of quarter of 2019, but was in contrast
to the 4.4 per cent decline recorded at the end of the fourth quarter of
2019. The development reflected the increase in holdings of
government securities by the monetary authority.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system’s credit to other sectors of
the economy rose by 5.8 per cent to N28,243.82 billion at end-March
2020, compared with the growth of 3.6 per cent and 9.2 per cent in the

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date) in narrow and broad money supply, respectively.
-6
-4
-2

-10
-5

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM3 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM3 (LHS)
Banking
system’s
credit
to
other
sectors
of
the
economy rose in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2019, respectively. The
development was attributed, largely, to the 9.1, 0.1 and 5.9 per cent
growth in claims on financial corporations, claims on state and local
governments and claims on the private sector, respectively (Figure 2,
Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Domestic Claims on the Economy4

Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system, on quarter-on-quarter basis,
rose by 10.2 per cent to N6,397.76 billion at end-March 2020, compared
with the growth of 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019, but was in
contrast to the growth of 15.3 per cent at the end of first quarter of 2019.
The increase in net foreign assets was due, largely, to the exchange rate
adjustment during the review period.

4 QCO, QCG and QDC represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CCO, CCG and CDC
represent cumulative changes (year-to-date) in claims on the other sectors of the economy,
claims on Government and domestic claims, respectively.
-40
-20

-40
-20

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCO (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QDC (RHS)
CCO (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CDC (LHS)
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system rose in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over the Preceding
Quarter*
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Domestic Claims (Net)

Claims on Government (Net)

Claims on Other Sector

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterp.

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Items (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Other Deposits

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the CBN

Currency-in-circulation (CIC), on quarter-on-quarter basis, fell by 6.0
per cent to N2,296.17 billion at end-March 2020, compared with a
decline of 7.5 per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2019, but was in
contrast to the growth of 21.8 per cent recorded at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2019. The development, relative to the level in the
preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the decline in currency outside
depository corporations and the fall in vault cash, owing to the increase
in CRR by the Bank.

The monetary authority’s liabilities to other depository corporations
grew by 26.1 per cent to N7,853.18 billion at end-March 2020,
compared with the growth of 24.7 per cent and 23.6 per cent in the
fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2019, respectively. The
development reflected the increase in CRR by the CBN.
Reserve money grew by 17.1 per cent to N10,149.36 billion at endMarch 2020, compared with the growth of 23.9 per cent and 13.5 per
cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2019,
respectively. The development reflected mainly, the 3.7 per cent
growth in net foreign assets on the assets side and 26.1 per cent growth
in total banks reserves on the liabilities side.
2.3
Money Market Developments
Financial market key indicators were relatively stable in the review
period. However, as the global economy reeled from the effects of
The money market
indicators were
relatively stable in
the review period.
Reserve money
(RM) rose in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices plunged, following Saudi Arabia’s oil
price slash and the unprecedented disruptions in global supply chains.
Global stock markets also turned bearish, as share prices plunged
worldwide. The level of liquidity in the period rose, as a result of
repayment of matured CBN bills, maturing Federal Government (FGN)
Bonds and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), as well as, fiscal disbursements
to the three tiers of Government. The provisioning and settlement of
foreign exchange purchases, auctioning of CBN bills, FGN Bonds,
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), and CRR debits, however, moderated the
liquidity.
2.3.1
Interest Rates Developments
Money market rates were generally stable and moved in tandem with
the level of liquidity in the first quarter of 2020. Daily interbank call and
OBB rates ranged from 5.00 per cent to 7.24 per cent and 1.77 per cent
to 21.02 per cent, respectively. Average interbank and OBB rates were
10.68 per cent and 12.08 per cent, respectively. Other rates, such as
the 7-day and 30-day NIBOR, traded at averages of 11.74 per cent and
9.81 percent, respectively.
Staff estimates showed that the average prime and maximum lending
rates rose by 0.02 percentage point and 0.47 percentage point,
respectively, to 15.01 per cent and 30.70 per cent, in the review period,
above their levels in the preceding quarter. The average term deposit
rate fell by 1.46 percentage points to 6.27 per cent.
The spread between the average term deposit and the average
maximum lending rates widened by 1.93 percentage points to 24.43
percentage points in the first quarter of 2020. With the headline inflation
at 12.26 per cent in March 2020, all deposit rates remained negative in
real terms, while prime and maximum lending rates were positive in real
term (Figure 3, Table 2).


Interest rates moved
in tandem with the
level of banking
system liquidity during
the review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)


Source: CBN
Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Per cent, Averages)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2 Open Market Operations
The Bank intervened through the conduct of direct OMO auctions to
moderate liquidity during the review quarter. The tenor of the
instrument was from 81 to 364 days. Total amount offered, subscribed
and allotted were N4,259.42 billion, N5,305.35 billion and N4,441.54
billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged from 11.29 to 18.25 per cent,
while the stop rates were from 11.44 per cent to 13.28 per cent.
Repayment of matured CBN bills was N5,519.17 billion, translating to a
net injection of N1,077.63 billion.

2.3.3
Primary Market
At the 91-day auction of NTBs, total subscription and allotment were
N246.33 billion and N94.25 billion, respectively, with bid rates ranged
from from 2.00 per cent to 9.40 per cent, while the stop rates were 2.30
per cent to 3.50 per cent. For the 182-day auction, total subscription
and allotment were N331.84 billion and N165.33 billion, respectively. The

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Per cent per Annum
Per cent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

bid rates ranged from 2.80 per cent to 10.50 per cent, while the stop
rates ranged from 3.40 per cent to 4.90 per cent. At the 364-day
auction, total subscription and allotment were N1,199.28 billion and
N662.72 billion, respectively, with bid rates ranging from 2.40 per cent
to 15.49 per cent, and stop rates ranging from 4.60 per cent to 6.54 per
cent per cent. On all the maturities, the stop rates ranged from 2.30 per
cent to 6.54 per cent.

2.3.4
Bonds Market
In the domestic bond market, tranches of 5-, 10-, 15- and 30-year bonds
were reopened and offered for sale in the review quarter. The term-tomaturity of the FGN Bonds ranged from 3 years 1 months to 30 years.
Total amount offered, subscribed and allotted were N345.00 billion,
N1,203.90 billion and N559.99 billion, respectively. Allotment on noncompetitive basis was N80.83 billion, while the sum of N606.43 billion
matured for repayment in the review quarter. The bid rates on all tenors
ranged from 7.00 per cent to 16.00 per cent, while the marginal rates
ranged from 8.75 per cent to 12.98 per cent.
2.3.5
CBN Standing Facilities
The Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and merchant banks continued to
access the standing facilities window to square-up their positions. The
trend at the CBN standing facilities window showed more frequency at
the SLF window, as against the decreased patronage at the SDF
window. Applicable rates for the SLF and SDF remained at 15.50 and
8.50 per cent, respectively.

Total request for the SLF during the review quarter was N1,811.99 billion
(This was made up of N1,214.03 billion direct SLF and N597.96 billion ILF
converted to overnight repo). Daily request ranged from N0.72 billion
to N181.63 billion and averaged N40.26 billion in the 45 transaction days
in the period. Total interest earned at 15.50 per cent was N767.13 billion.

The total SDF granted during the review period was N843.09 billion with
a daily average of N14.05 billion in the 60 transaction days in the first
quarter of 2020. Daily request ranged from N1.57 billion to N47.90 billion.
Cost incurred on SDF in first quarter of 2020 stood at N0.46 billion.

2.4
Other Depository Corporations’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of other depository corporations
amounted to N47,413.56 billion at end-March 2020, representing 8.8 per
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were offered for sale in
the Q1 of 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

cent increase above the level at end-December 2019. Funds were
sourced, mainly, from mobilisation of deposits, other account payable
and financial derivatives. The funds were used, mainly, for accretion to
reserves, settlement of financial derivatives and repayment of loans.
Credit by other depository corporations to the domestic economy was
N22,574.80 billion at end-March 2020, indicating an increase of 1.2 per
cent above the level in the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the increase in claims on private sector.
Total specified liquid assets of other depository corporations was
N15,398.40 billion at end-March 2020, representing 56.33 per cent of the
total current liabilities. The liquidity ratio, at 78.36 per cent, was 17.8
percentage points below the level at end-December 2019, but was
48.36 percentage points above the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0
per cent. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 62.3 per cent, was 3.4
percentage points higher than the level at end-December 2019, but
was 2.7 percentage points lower than the prescribed minimum of 65.0
per cent.
2.5
Capital Market Developments

2.5.1
Secondary Market
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bearish during the
first quarter of 2020, as the All Share Index (ASI) and aggregate market
capitalisation fell. The development was driven, largely, by the negative
impact of COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions in global supply chain.
The turnover volume and value of traded securities, however, rose by
26.0 per cent and 24.6 per cent to 23.56 billion shares and N289.62 billion,
respectively, in 276,616 deals, compared with 18.70 billion shares and
N232.41 billion, respectively, in 201,076 deals, recorded in the fourth
quarter of 2019. The development was attributed to the massive sell-off
embarked upon by the investors, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic
(Figure 4, Table 3).


Liquidity ratio was
above the
prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit
ratio was below the
prescribed minimum
in March 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 4 : Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)
439.7
359.2

211.2
208.7

187.7
232.41
289.62
Source: NSE
2.5.2 New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings

There was one new equity listings during the review period (Table 4).

Table 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing

Interswitch Limited
23.00 Billion Collable Bond
Debt Issuance
New Listing

Source: NSE

2.5.3 Market Capitalisation
The aggregate market capitalisation for all listed securities (equities
and debts) fell by 5.3 per cent to N24.51 trillion in the first quarter of
2020, compared with N25.89 trillion at end-December 2019. Similarly,
market capitalisation for the equities segment declined by 14.3 per
cent to N11.11 trillion in the first quarter of 2020 and constituted 45.3 per
cent of the aggregate market capitalisation, compared with N12.97
trillion and 50.1 per cent at end-December 2019.

2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 26,867.79 at the beginning of the
quarter, fell by 26.1 per cent to 21,300.47 at end-March 2020. With the

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

exception of the NSE-AseM sectoral index, which remain unchanged
at 734.99 in the review period, all other sectoral indices showed a
declining trend. Specifically, NSE-Consumer Goods, NSE-Banking, NSEPension, NSE-Lotus, NSE-Premium, NSE-Oil and Gas, NSE-Insurance and
NSE-Industrial indices fell by 45.0 per cent, 33.7 per cent, 21.2 per cent,
18.4 per cent, 17.3 per cent, 13.7 per cent, 6.0 per cent and 1.1 per
cent to 325.50, 235.86, 826.75, 1,512.63, 1,761.23, 215.25, 119.40 and
1,040.295, respectively, at end-March 2020.

Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: NSE
Table 5: Market Capitalisation and All Share Index (NSE)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Market Capitalisation (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
41,504.51

38,278.55

32,766.37

31,430.50

31,041.42

29,966.87

27,630.56

26,842.07

21,300.47


Source: NSE


Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations5
Federally-collected revenue in the first quarter of 2020 fell below both the
quarterly budget estimate and the receipt in the preceding quarter by 36.0
per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively. Federal Government retained
revenue, in the review quarter, was N864.88 billion, while total estimated
expenditure amounted to N2,327.80 billion, resulting in an estimated deficit of
N1,462.92 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
At N2,527.27 billion, Federally-collected revenue, in the first quarter of
2020, was lower than the quarterly budget estimate of N3,947.58 billion
by 36.0 per cent. Similarly, it fell below the receipt in the preceding
quarter by 4.8 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue
(gross), relative to the quarterly budget estimate, was attributed to
shortfalls in receipt from both oil and non-oil revenue components
during the review period (Figure 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally-Collected Revenue


Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)*
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
2,402.47

2,292.16

2,912.73

2,654.96

2,527.27

Oil Revenue
1,413.74

1,219.19

1,340.08

1,563.65

1,523.03

Non-Oil Revenue
988.73

1,072.96

1,572.65

1,091.32

1,004.24

Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
*All figures are provisional


5 Figures on government revenue and expenditure for the first quarter of 2020 were provisional and subject to changes

Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
N'Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross federally -
collected revenue
fell by 36.0 per
cent below the
quarterly budget
estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Gross oil receipt, at N1,523.03 billion or 60.3 per cent of the total
revenue, was below the quarterly budget estimate and the receipt in
the preceding quarter by 31.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
The decline in oil revenue, relative to the quarterly budget estimate,
was due to shortfall in receipt from PPT and royalties (Figure 7, Table 7).

Figure 7 : Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Oil Revenue Gross
1,413.74

1,219.19

1,340.08

1,563.65

1,523.03

Crude oil/Gas Exports
137.09

86.98

57.28

117.29

172.58

PPT/Royalties
874.03

810.79

947.53

896.71

838.24

Others
402.62

321.42

335.26

549.64

512.21


Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* Figures are provisional
Non-oil revenue (gross), at N1,004.24 billion or 39.7 per cent of total
revenue, fell below the quarterly budget estimate of N1,733.01 billion
by 42.1 per cent. It also fell below the level in the preceding quarter by
8.0 per cent. The lower non-oil revenue, relative to the quarterly budget
estimate, was due to the decline in receipt from VAT and corporate tax
(Figure 8, Table 8).


Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
N'Billion
Crude oil/Gas Exports
PPT/Royalties
Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)*
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Non-Oil Revenue
988.73

1,072.96

1,572.65

1,091.32

1,004.24

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
301.62

295.49

290.87

287.95

319.12

Corporate Tax
297.21

332.61

651.43

355.97

290.17

Customs & Excise Duties
190.96

214.93

210.77

220.70

216.09

Others/1
198.95

229.93

419.58

226.69

178.87


1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/NonFederation Account Levies (Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* Figures are provisional

After the statutory deductions and transfers of N523.69 billion and
N479.10 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,524.49 billion was retained
in the Federation Account for distribution. Of this amount, the Federal
Government received N729.63 billion, State and Local governments
received N370.08 billion and N285.32 billion, respectively, while the
balance of N139.47 billion was transferred to the 13.0 per cent
Derivation Fund for distribution among the oil-producing states.
In addition, the Federal Government received N44.52 billion, while the
State and Local governments received N148.39 billion and N103.87
billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool Account.

Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
N'Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Others
A
net
sum
of
N1,524.49 billion of
the gross federallycollected
revenue
was
distributed
among the three tiers
of government and
the 13.0 per cent
Derivation Fund for oil
producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (N Billion)*
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Total Deductions
435.51

292.68

443.68

517.67

523.69

Oil Revenue Deductions

Non-Oil Revenue Deductions

Total Transfers
488.51

513.61

698.82

503.13

479.10

Federal Govt. Ind. Revenue

VAT Pool Account

Others 1/

1/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of
Finance
* Figures are provisional
Also, the sum of N18.17 billion was shared as Exchange Gain in the
following proportion: Federal Government, N8.35 billion; State
governments, N4.23 billion; Local governments, N3.27 billion; and 13.0
per cent Derivation Fund, N2.32 billion. Similarly, the sum of N0.66 billion
was shared as Non-oil Excess revenue and was distributed as follows:
Federal Government, N0.35 billion; State government, N0.18 billion,
while Local government received N0.13 billion.

Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the three tiers of
government in the first quarter of 2020, amounted to N1,840.10 billion,
compared with the quarterly budget estimate of N2,977.78 billion.

3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government
Provisional data indicated that the Federal Government retained
revenue for the first quarter of 2020 amounted to N864.88 billion. This
was below both the quarterly budget and the receipt in the preceding
quarter by 58.9 per cent and 39.0 per cent, respectively. Of the total
revenue, Federation Account accounted for 84.4 per cent, while
Federal Government Independent Revenue, VAT, Exchange Gain, and
Non-oil Excess accounted for 9.5 per cent, 5.1 per cent, 1.0 per cent,
and 0.04 per cent, respectively (Figure 9).

At
N864.88
billion,
the
estimated FGN
retained
revenue
was
lower than the
quarterly
budget
estimate
by
58.9 per cent.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue


Table 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)*
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Retained Revenue
1,130.91

971.72

1,279.54

1,418.87

864.88

Expenditure
2,512.57

2,389.36

2,185.53

2,627.38

2,327.80

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(832.25)

(626.90)

(252.98)

(575.21)

(892.25)

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(654.22)

(1,046.31)

136.48

(744.06)

(973.40)

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,381.66)

(1,417.64)

(906.00)

(1,208.51)

(1,462.92)


Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office
of the Accountant General of the Federation
*Figures are provisional
At N2,327.80 billion, the estimated Federal Government expenditure
for the first quarter of 2020 was below the quarterly budget estimate
of N2,648.59 billion by 12.1 per cent. It also fell by 11.4 per cent,
compared with the level in the preceding quarter. A breakdown of
the total expenditure, showed that the recurrent component
accounted for 75.5 per cent, while capital and statutory transfers
accounted for 20.3 per cent and 4.2 per cent, repectively. A further
breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that the non-debt
component accounted for 72.1 per cent, while debt service
payments was 27.9 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in an
estimated deficit of N1,462.92 billion, compared with the proportionate
quarterly budget deficit of N543.80 billion.
Federation Acct.
84.4%
VAT Pool Acct.
5.1%
FGN Ind. Rev.
9.5%
Exchange Gain
1.0%
Excess Non-Oil
0.04%
The fiscal
operations of the
FG resulted in an
estimated overall
deficit of
N1,462.92 billion in
Q1 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure


3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

At N664.66 billion, the total allocation to state governments from the
Federation Account, including the 13.0 per cent Derivation Fund and
the VAT Pool Account, was lower than the quarterly budget estimate
by 42.0 per cent. A breakdown showed that receipts from the
Federation Account was N516.27 billion (77.7%), while the share from
VAT pool account stood at N148.39 billion (22.3%). The receipts from the
Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below the quarterly budget
estimate by 41.7 per cent and 43.2 per cent, respectively.

3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation and VAT
Pool Accounts in the first quarter of 2020 stood at N392.59 billion. This
was below the quarterly budget estimate by 37.1 per cent. Of the total
amount, allocation from the Federation Account was N288.72 billion
(73.5%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N103.87 billion (26.5%).


Recurrent
75.5%
Capital
20.3%
Transfers
4.2%


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by preparation of
land for early wet season planting, harvesting of tree crops and irrigation-fed
vegetables. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers intensified efforts towards
raising poultry birds and cattle in preparation for the 2020 Easter festivity. Crude
oil production was estimated at 1.84 million barrels per day (mbd) or 167.44
million barrels for the quarter. The end-period headline inflation, on year-onyear and 12-month moving average bases, in the first quarter of 2020, stood
at 12.26 per cent and 11.62 per cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
Agricultural activities in the first quarter of 2020 were predominantly
preparation of land for early wet season planting, harvesting of treecrops and irrigation-fed vegetables. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers
continued to intensify efforts towards raising of poultry birds and cattle
in preparation for the 2020 Easter festivity.
During the quarter, the African Development Bank (ADB), in
collaboration with the Federal Government, signed a US$500 million
memorandum initiative to develop four Special Agro-Industrial
Processing Zones in the country. The Special Agro-Industrial Processing
Zones are designed to concentrate agro-processing activities within
areas of high agricultural potentials to boost productivity, integrate
production, processing and marketing of selected commodities. The
initiative is capable of boosting the structural transformation of the
economy by providing opportunities for public and private sector
investments.
Following the outbreak of the COVID-19, which led to lockdown in
major cities around the globe, the Nigerian Agricultural sector in Q1
2020, witnessed a huge demand uptick arising from panic buying,
mostly for essential commodities. The panic buying was fueled by the
speculations of economic slow-down. The development has also led to
increase in commodity prices in the market. However, towards
cushioning the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, the
CBN, in support of palliative measures, put in place by the government,
reviewed interest rates on all applicable intervention facilities to all
sectors from 9 to 5 per cent, per annum for a period of 1 year, starting
with the review quarter. In addition, it granted moratorium of one year
on all principal repayments on its interventions facilities.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
A total of N539.8 million loans was guaranteed to 3,161 farmers under
the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in the first quarter of
2020. This represented a decrease of 53.9 per cent and 34.8 per cent
below the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2019, respectively.
Sub-sectorial analysis showed that food crops obtained the largest
share of the total, with N291.6 million (54.0 per cent) guaranteed to
1,958 beneficiaries; followed by the livestock, N115.2 million (21.3 per
cent) guaranteed to 430 beneficiaries; and cash crops, N64.9 million
(12.0 per cent) guaranteed to 335 beneficiaries. Fisheries, Mixed crops
and ‘Others’ received N36.1 million (6.7 per cent), N16.8 million (3.1 per
cent) and N15.3 million (2.9 per cent), respectively, guaranteed to 121,
233, and 84 beneficiaries.
Analysis by State showed that 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory
benefited from the Scheme in the review quarter, with the highest and
lowest sums of N54.8 million (10.2 per cent) and N1.8 million (0.3 per
cent) guaranteed to Ogun and Nasarawa states, respectively.
4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
At end-March 2020, the total amount released, since inception by the
CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) to the
participating banks for disbursement, amounted to N635.39 billion for
608 projects, while the total amount repaid since inception stood at
N406.29 billion at end-March 2020 (Table 11).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 11: Disbursement and Repayment of Credit under the Commercial Agriculture
Credit Scheme (CACS) as at end-March 2020

S/N
Participating Banks
Total
No.
of
Projects
Amount
Disbursed(N
billion)
Amount
repaid(N billion)

Access Bank Plc

41.51
34.73

Citi Bank Nigeria Ltd

3.00
3.00

First City Monument Bank

18.53
12.08

First Bank of Nigeria Plc

60.59
45.29

Fidelity Bank Plc

24.99
15.00

Guaranty Trust Bank Plc

39.85
27.15

Heritage Bank Plc

6.81
2.65

Jaiz Bank Plc

3.50

SunTrust Bank Limited

1.85
0.45

Ecobank Nigeria Limited

6.38
6.38

Keystone Bank Limited

31.70
10.12

Polaris Bank Limited

13.77
11.72

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc

31.80
19.94

Sterling Bank Plc

72.43
30.45

United Bank for Africa Plc

83.53
61.16

Union Bank of Nigeria Ltd

29.00
22.03

Unity Bank Plc

34.80
14.40

Wema Bank Plc

3.24
1.70

Zenith Bank Plc

128.13
88.05

TOTAL

635.39
406.29
Source: CBN

4.4
Industrial Production6
Data from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated a decline in
the performance of the industrial sector in the first quarter of 2020, on

6 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision
Industrial activities
decline in the
review quarter, due
to the impact of
COVID-19 and
falling oil prices.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

account of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, which led to
contraction in manufacturing activities and fall in both crude oil
production and electricity generation. Consequently, industrial
production in the review quarter indicated a fall below the level in the
preceding quarter. At 97.6 (2010=100), the estimated index of industrial
production decline by 1.6 per cent and 9.6 per cent below the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2019,
respectively. The decrease was attributed to contraction in activities in
all the sub-sectors during the review period.
The estimated index of manufacturing production in the first quarter of
2020, at 181.5 (2010=100), showed a decrease of 1.1 per cent and 1.2
per cent, compared with the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding
quarter
of
2019,
respectively.
The
decline
in
manufacturing activities was due to fall in demand occasioned by the
shut-down of the global economy, which led to decline in the
importation of raw material and machines (Figure11).
At 56.4 (2010=100), the estimated index of mining production
decreased by 7.2 per cent and 27.8 per cent, below the levels attained
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2019,
respectively. The decline in mining production during the review
quarter could be attributed to the drastic fall in crude oil and gas
production (Figure 11, Table 12).
At 3,574.1 MW/h, average estimated electricity generation in the first
quarter of 2020 declined by 2.1 per cent and 14.7 per cent, compared
with the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter
of 2019, respectively. The decrease was attributed to the fall in gas
supply to thermal stations, decrease in water levels at the hydro
stations, as well as, breakdown in transmission network.
At
3,123.5MW/h,
average
estimated
electricity
consumption
decreased by 2.8 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding
quarter. The decrease was attributed to the incessant breakdown in
transmission network and instability of the distribution networks.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 58.3 in the first
quarter of 2020, compared with 60.8 in the preceding quarter. The
index grew at a slower rate, relative to the level in the preceding
quarter of 2019 by 1.6 per cent, due to high inventories stockpile and
decline in new orders of manufacturing sub-sector. The NonAverage electricity
generation and
consumption
decreased in the
review quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Manufacturing PMI stood at 58.6 in the first quarter of 2020, also showed
a slower growth, compared with 62.1 in the preceding quarter.
Figure 11 : Indices of Industrial Production (2010=100)

Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

Table 12: Indices of Industrial Production

Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining
77.48
78.2

89.2
56.4
Source: Staff Estimate

4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas
liquids, averaged 1.84 mbd or 167.44 mb in the review quarter. This
represented a decrease of 1.1 per cent, compared with the 1.85 mbd
or 170.20 mb produced in the preceding quarter. Crude oil export was
estimated at 1.39 mbd, representing a decrease of 0.7 per cent,
compared with the 1.40 mbd recorded in the preceding quarter. The
estimated decrease in production was attributed to the aftermath of
the December 2019 OPEC meeting, where members and their allies
pledged a further production cut by 500,000 bpd begining in January
2020 to stabilise the global crude market. The allocation of crude oil for
domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels.
The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the Bonny Light
(37° API), was US$52.51/barrel in the first quarter of 2020, representing
decrease of 20.1 per cent and 18.9 per cent below the US$65.71/barrel
and US$64.75/barrel recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the
corresponding period of 2019, respectively. Oil prices have continued
Crude oil and
natural gas
production
decreased in first
quarter 2020
Crude oil export
decreased in Q1
2020.
Average crude
oil prices,
including the
Bonny Light (37°
API) fell in the
international
crude oil market
in Q1 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

to plunge, following OFEC’s failure in its March 6, 2020 meeting to
address the falling global demand by agreeing on additional supply
cuts amidst the ravaging impact of COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing
price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The UK Brent at
US$51.02/barrel, Forcados at US$52.88/barrel and WTI at US$45.40/b
exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light.
The average price of the OPEC basket of thirteen selected crude
streams was US$51.60/barrel in the first quarter of 2020. A decrease of
18.2 per cent and 17.7 per cent, compared with the US$63.05/b and
US$62.72/b recorded in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2019, respectively.
Figure 12: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market (US$ Barrel)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q1-20
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters
4.6
Consumer Prices7
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at end-March 2020
stood at 315.2 (November 2009=100), indicating 2.5 per cent and 12.3
per cent increase above the levels in December 2019 and the
corresponding period of 2019, respectively. The development was
attributed, largely, to food supply shortages caused by the persisting

7 New CPI with November 2009 = 100, as base and new weight, based on the 2003/2004
Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS), was released by the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) on October 18, 2010.

Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20
US$/barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket
The general price
level increased in
Q1 2020 above
the level in the
preceding
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

security challenges in producing regions, the effect of increase in VAT
rate from 5.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent, the negative supply shocks,
arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased food demand in
preparation for the Easter festivity.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) stood at 321.9 at endMarch 2020, representing 2.6 per cent and 12.9 per cent increase
above the levels at end-December 2019 and the corresponding period
of 2019, respectively. The rural all-items CPI (November 2009=100), was
309.7 at end-March 2020, representing 2.4 per cent and 11.6 per cent
increase, compared with the levels at the end of the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively (Figure 13, Table
14).
The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent) was 349.5 in
the first quarter of 2020, compared with the 339.9 and 303.9 in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.
Figure 13: Consumer Price Index


Source: NBS
Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Composite

Urban
255.6
263.8

278.5


Rural


Source: NBS

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Headline inflation stood at 12.26 per cent in the review quarter,
compared with 11.98 per cent and 11.25 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.
The 12-month moving average (12MMA) inflation, for the first quarter of
2020, was 11.62 per cent, compared with 11.40 per cent apiece in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively
(Figure 14, Table 15).

Figure 14: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS

Table15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


Source: NBS


Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year
The
headline
inflation (yo-y) stood
at 12.26 per
cent in Q1
2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments8
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN, on quarter-on-quarter
basis, rose by 11.2 per cent and 9.4 per cent, relative to their levels in the fourth
quarter of 2019. Total non-oil export proceeds received by banks increased by
26.9 per cent, compared with the level at end-December 2019. The average
exchange rate at the ’Investors’ and ‘Exporters’ window, the BDC and the
Inter-bank segments of the foreign market were N365.06/US$, N363.48/US$ and
N310.57/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At US$33.69 billion, the gross
external reserves fell by 11.6 per cent, compared with the level at endDecember 2019.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN amounted to
US$15.01 billion, showing an increase of 11.2 per cent above the level
in the fourth quarter of 2019, but a decrease of 18.4 per cent below the
level in the corresponding period of 2019. The development, relative to
the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the rise in non-oil receipts,
driven by proceeds from TSA and Third Party receipts.
Aggregate outflow from the CBN was US$17.62 billion, indicating an
increase of 9.4 per cent and 8.1 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.
The rise in outflow, relative to the level in the preceding quarter,
reflected, mainly, the increase in interbank utilisation, external debt
service, national priority projects, foreign exchange special payment,
Bank and SDR charges/Fees and funds returned to remitter. Overall,
foreign exchange flows through the Bank, in the review period, resulted
in a net outflow of US$2.61 billion, compared with the net outflow of
US$2.60 billion in the preceding quarter, but was a net inflow of US$2.08
billion in the corresponding period of 2019 (Figure 15, Table 16).


8 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign exchange
utilisation for first quarter 2019, are provisional and subject to change.
Foreign exchange
inflow and outflow
through the CBN rose,
resulting in a net
outflow of US$2.61
billion in Q1 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 15: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN

Source: CBN
Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN (US$ million)
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Inflow
13,817.56

12,949.01

15,815.40

18,384.02

13,830.98

12,536.38

13,294.93

15,005.63

Outflow
13,296.38

16,931.36

16,002.49

16,302.16

10,066.75

16,204.22

15,565.02

17,616.58

Netflow
521.18

(3,982.36)

(187.09)

2,081.86

3,764.22

(3,667.84)

(2,270.09)

(2,610.95)


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy amounted to
US$42.71 billion in the first quarter of 2020, indicating an increase of 1.0
per cent and 13.8 per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively. The development
was as a result of 11.2 per cent increase in inflow through the Bank. Oil
sector receipts, at US$3.36 billion or 7.9 per cent of the total, declined
by 7.6 per cent and 21.1 per cent below the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$11.65 billion or 27.3 per cent of total
in the review period, rose by 18.1 per cent above the level in fourth
quarter of 2019, but was a decline of 17.6 per cent below the level in
the corresponding period of 2019. Autonomous inflow, at US$27.71
billion in first quarter of 2020, declined by 3.8 per cent, compared with
the level in the preceding quarter, but rose by 44.7 per cent above the
level in the corresponding period of 2019. Inflow from autonomous
sources accounted for 64.9 per cent of the total.
-10,000
-5,000


Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous
inflow into
the economy
declined by
3.8 per cent
in Q1 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

At US$18.97 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from the
economy, increased by 9.8 per cent and 11.4 per cent above the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2019,
respectively. The development, relative to the level in the preceding
quarter, was driven, mainly, by 9.4 per cent increase in outflow from the
CBN. Thus, foreign exchange flows through the economy, resulted in a
net inflow of US$23.74 billion in the review quarter, compared with
US$25.02 billion and US$20.51 billion in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2019, respectively.

5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks during the
review period amounted to US$1.21 billion, representing an increase of
26.9 per cent relative to the level in the preceding quarter, but a
decrease of 77.6 per cent relative to the level in the corresponding
period of 2019. The development, relative to the preceding quarter’s
level, was attributed, largely, to the rise in the export receipts from
manufactured products, driven by increased receipts from plastics,
textiles, foot wear, drugs and pharmaceutical products, wood
products, metals and metal products, electrical and electronics, and
other manufactured products.

Sectoral analysis showed that proceeds from minerals, industrial and
manufactured products rose by 107.6 per cent, 46.4 per cent and 42.5
per cent to US$7.12 million, US$769.08 million and US$130.55 million,
respectively, above the levels in the preceding quarter. Receipts from
food products and the agricultural sector fell by 24.6 per cent and 7.4
per cent to US$21.39 million and US$284.23 million, respectively, below
the levels in the preceding quarter. The decline in the food products
sub-sector was attributed to the fall in receipts from wheat and fish.
The shares of the various sectors in non-oil export proceeds were:
industrial sector, 63.4 per cent; agricultural products, 23.4 per cent;
manufactured products, 10.8 per cent; food products, 1.8 per cent and
minerals, 0.6 per cent.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Aggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the first quarter of
2020 stood at US$15.20 billion, indicating an increase of 29.3 per cent
and 31.2 per cent above the levels in the fourth quarter of 2019 and
the first quarter of 2019, respectively. The invisible sector accounted for
The invisible
sector
accounted for
the bulk of the
total foreign
exchange
disbursed in Q1
2020.
Total non-oil export
earnings by
exporters’ rose in Q1
2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

71.6 per cent of total foreign exchange disbursed in the review quarter,
followed by the industrial sector, 12.1 per cent. Others were:
manufactured products, 6.3 per cent; minerals and oil, 4.3 per cent;
food products, 3.6 per cent; transport, 1.8 per cent; and agricultural
sector, 0.3 per cent (Figure16).
Figure 16: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Source: CBN

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$13.37 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised dealers in
the first quarter of 2020. This represented a 28.4 per cent increase,
compared with the level in the fourth quarter of 2019. The
development, relative to the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the
increase in foreign exchange sales to the I & E window, BDC segment
of the market, secondary market intervention sales (SMIS) and
wholesale forwards in the review quarter.
Of the total, wholesale forwards intervention, interventions at the I & E
window, sales to BDCs and SMIS rose by 77.2 per cent, 72.5 per cent,
12.9 per cent and 5.5 per cent to US$2.08 billion, US$4.60 billion, US$3.76
billion and US$1.68 billion, respectively, above the levels in the
preceding quarter, while swap transactions, SME interventions and
interbank sales fell by 36.4 per cent, 10.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent to
US$0.60 billion, US$0.36 billion and US$0.30 billion, respectively, below
the levels in the preceding quarter (Figure 17, Table 17).

Agricultural
Transport
Food
Manufactures
Minerals & Oil
Industrial
Invisibles
per cent of total
Q1-20
Q3-19
Q2-19
Supply of foreign
exchange to
authorised dealers
rose in Q1 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 17: Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
U S$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Source: CBN

Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Wholesale Forward

Supply to I & E

SMIS Intervention

SME Intervention

Disbursement at maturity

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)


Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the Inter-bank and the BDC
segments of the foreign exchange market in the review quarter.
Consequently, average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US
dollar at the Inter-bank segment, was N310.57/US$, representing a
depreciation of 1.2 per cent apiece below the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2019, respectively. Also, at
the BDC segment, the average exchange rate, depreciated by 1.1 per
cent and 1.0 per cent to N363.48/US$, relative to the levels in the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding
quarter
of
2019,
respectively. Similarly, at N365.06/US$, the average exchange rate at
the “Investors” and “Exporters” (I&E) window depreciated by 0.8 per
cent and 1.0 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and
The average
naira exchange
rate vis-à-vis the
US $
depreciated at
the inter-bank,
BDC segment,


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

the corresponding period of 2019, respectively.
Consequently, the premium between the average inter-bank and BDC
rates narrowed by 0.1 percentage point to 17.0 per cent, relative to the
level in the preceding quarter. The premium between the average
exchange rates at the “Investors” and “Exporters” window and the BDC
segment narrowed by 0.4 percentage point to 0.61 per cent in the
review quarter, from 0.96 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019. The
premium between the average exchange rates at the “Investors” and
“Exporters” and inter-bank rates also narrowed by 0.5 percentage
point to 17.7 per cent, relative to the level in the preceding quarter
(Figure 18, Table 18).
Figure 18: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q1- 19
Q2- 19
Q3- 19
Q4- 19
Q1- 20
Av. I & E
Av. BDC
Av. In te rb an k
N/US$

Source: CBN

Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Investors and Exporters Window

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
I&E/Interbank
N/A

BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 19: Exchange Rate Premium

Source: CBN

5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves was US$33.69 billion at end-March 2020. This
indicated a net decrease of 11.6 per cent, compared with the level in
the fourth quarter of 2019. The external reserves position would cover
4.5 months of import of goods and services or 7.3 months of import of
goods only, based on the estimated value of import for first quarter
2020. A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that
the share of Federation reserves was US$0.32 billion (0.9%); Federal
Government reserves, US$5.85 billion (17.4%); and the CBN reserves,
US$27.52 billion (81.7%) of the total (Figure 20, Table 19).
Figure 20 : Gross Official External Reserves

Source: CBN


Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
Per cent
Interbank/BDC

Q4-2018
Q1-2019
Q2-2019
Q3-2019
Q4-2019
Q1-2020
US$ Million
Gross external
reserves fell in the first
quarter of 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 19: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Q4-19
Q1-20
External Reserves
42.542.82
44,793.1

44,747.0

40,689.9

38,092.7

33,689.1


Source: CBN


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

6.0 International Economic Developments and
Meetings
Other major international economic developments and meetings of
importance to the domestic economy in the first quarter of 2020
included: the Extra-Ordinary Meeting of the Ministers for Finance and
the Committee of Governors of the Central Banks of the Member States
of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), also referred to as the
Convergence Council, was held at the Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja,
on January 16, 2020. Representatives from all the WAMZ Member States
and the West African Monetary Institute (WAMI) were present at the
Meeting.

The Report of the Extra-Ordinary Meeting of the Technical Committee
of the WAMZ formed the basis for the deliberations of the Convergence
Council. The Technical Committee had discussions regarding the
declaration by the Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State of the
West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) on December
21, 2019 to change the name of CFA franc to the Eco.

Based on the Technical Committee’s report, the Convergence
Council:


Reaffirmed their commitment to the decisions of the ECOWAS
Authority of Heads of State and Government, relating to the
ECOWAS Monetary Cooperation Programme, the revised
roadmap, and the Single-Track Approach to the ECOWAS Single
Currency Programme 2020;


Welcomed the achievements under the revised roadmap,
including, the adoption of a flexible exchange rate, monetary
policy framework based on inflation targeting, federal model of
common central bank, name of the common central bank,
name and symbol of the common currency;


Acknowledged the policy reform measures taken by WAEMU,
including the change in gross external reserves management,
as a major first step toward delinking the CFA franc from the
euro, and urged WAEMU to implement outstanding programme
areas of the revised roadmap of the single currency programme
and revert to the Single-Track Approach in line with ECOWAS
Authority decision;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Expressed reservations about the action of the WAEMU and the
inaction of the ECOWAS Commission in connection with the
unjustifiable and unilateral renaming of the CFA franc to Eco, on
one hand, and the adoption of fixed exchange rate regime, on
the other hand, which are not in line with the ECOWAS Authority
decision; and


Underscored the importance of the need for a tripartite
consultative meeting between the Authorities of ECOWAS
Commission, WAEMU Commission, and WAMZ with a view to
clarifying and resolving issues and to avoid jeopardising the
achievement of the shared goal of introducing a single currency
in West Africa, guided by a single roadmap adopted by the
ECOWAS Authority.

Furthermore, the 2019 End-of-Year Statutory meeting of the Economic
and
Monetary
Affairs
Committee
and
the
Operations
and
Administration Committee of WAMA was held from February 6 – 13,
2020, at the International Conference Centre, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
The meeting deliberated on the macroeconomic developments in the
ECOWAS sub-region, assessed the performance of member countries
in terms of compliance with the convergence criteria, the 2020
monetary integration agenda and administrative/operational issues of
the Agency.

The meeting deliberated on 12 reports, broadly classified into three subgroups to wit: (a) Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee,
Operations and Administration Committee, and Any Other Business, as
presented by WAMA, after the opening ceremony. The documents
were:


Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee;


Director General’s Progress Report in the 1st half of 2019;


Report on the ECOWAS Monetary Cooperation Programme for
first half 2019;


Report on Exchange Rate Developments of ECOWAS Currencies
as at end 2019;


Proposal for the Creation of a Community Solidarity and
Cooperation Fund;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

The Charter Establishing the West Africa Securities Regulators
Association (WASRA);


West African Capital Markets Integration (WACMI) Operational
Rules; and


Report of the Meeting of Member States Experts to Validate the
WASRA Charter and WACMI Rules.

After deliberations, the meeting made recommendations to the
Committee of Governors for consideration and approval.

Moreover, the 41st Meeting of the Technical Committee of the West
African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM)
was held at the Sierra Leone International Conference Centre,
Aberdeen, Freetown, Sierra Leone on February 9, 2020. In attendance
were representatives of all the 5 member central banks, as well as
representatives from the Ministry of Finance Sierra Leone; Ministry of
Finance and Economic Affairs, The Gambia; West African Monetary
Institute (WAMI); West Africa Monetary Agency (WAMA); ECOWAS
Bank for Investment and Development (EBID); and Inter-Governmental
Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA). The
major decisions from the meeting were:

Approval of the Draft Minutes of the 37th Meeting of the Board
of Governors;


Approval of the Progress Report by the Director General;


Approval of the Draft Strategic Plan for Year (2020-2024);


Approval of the Draft Budget for Year 2020; and


Approval for the Draft Proposals for the Engagement of New
External Auditors.

Also, the 2019 End-of-Year Statutory Meetings of the WAMZ was held at
the International Conference Centre, Freetown, Sierra Leone from
February

–
14,
2020.
The
meeting
deliberated
on
the
macroeconomic developments and convergence report in the WAMZ
at end-June 2019. The meeting also deliberated on administrative and
operational issues of the Institute and considered the WAMI work
programme and budget for the financial year 2020.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Lastly, the 33rd Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and
Government of the African Union was held at the AU Headquarters in
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from February 9 – 10, 2020. Themed “Silencing
the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”,
the Meeting included an opening address by the newly elected
Chairperson of the African Union, H.E. President Cyril Ramaphosa of the
Republic of South Africa. During his address, the Chairperson outlined
the priorities of the Union towards bolstering the progress being made
in driving Africa’s growth trajectory within the framework of Agenda
2063. These included:


Deepening the unity of the continent;


Advancing
inclusive
economic
growth
and
sustainable
development;


Ensuring political and economic unity, good governance and
peace;


Supporting
integration,
industrialisation,
economic
development, trade and investment;


Development of an appropriate strategy for the fourth industrial
revolution;


Economic and financial inclusion for women and mainstreaming
the interests of women;


Conflict resolution; and


Championing the position of Africa as a strong and influential
player in the global arena.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

7.0
Global Economic Outlooks
7.1
World Output
The momentum of global growth in the first quarter of 2020 was
projected
to
be
slow
for
both
the
advanced
and
emerging/developing economies, due to the ongoing coronavirus
pandemic. The outbreak of the coronavirus in countries outside China
posed a significant challenge to global growth, with a tendency to
drive countries into recession. The growing political tension between
the United States and Iran could disrupt oil supply, escalate
uncertainties in international investment and erode confidence,
thereby leading to slower business activities and growth. Also, the trade
war between United States and China is of great concern, as it has
extended to technological wars with negative implication on global
supply chains. These impediments to global growth may further expose
vulnerabilities in the international financial system, resulting in rising
rollover risk for corporate and sovereign borrowers and portfolio
reallocations/shift towards safe assets and rapid shifts in financial
sentiments.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) update for April 2020,
projected global growth to fall from the estimated 2.9 per cent in 2019
to negative 3.0 per cent in 2020, but a growth of 5.8 per cent for 2021.
This reflected a downward revision of negative 6.3 percentage points
and an increase of 2.4 percentage points for 2020 and 2021,
respectively, compared with the January 2020 WEO estimates. The
downward revision reflects primarily negative surprises to economic
activity in a few emerging market economies. On the positive side,
market sentiment would be influenced by a broad-based shift toward
accommodative monetary policy, intermittent favorable news on USChina trade negotiations, and diminishing fears of a no-deal Brexit.
Across advanced economies, growth is projected to fall to negative
6.1 per cent in 2020, indicating 7.7 percentage points lower than the
estimates in January 2020 WEO, but was estimated to have a positive
growth of 4.5 per cent in 2021, showing a 2.9 percentage points higher
than the estimate in the January 2020 WEO. The slowdown in growth
was due, mainly, to downward revisions for the United States, euro area
and the United Kingdom. For emerging market and developing
economies, growth is estimated to fall to negative 1.0 per cent in 2020,
but a positive growth of 6.6 per cent in 2021.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

7.2 Global Inflation
Data on global inflation in the first quarter of 2020 revealed mixed result.
In the major advanced and emerging market development
economies, inflationary pressures were subdued due to weak oil prices
and moderate growth, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
inflationary pressure in the review quarter is likely to persist in the months
ahead, as the effects of the Coronavirus outbreak dampened
consumer spending and depressed global supply chain.

Inflation, in the United States, eased to 2.2 per cent in March 2020 from
2.5 per cent in December 2019. This was attributed to fall in gasoline
prices and airline fares as well as apparel prices. In the euro area,
inflation declined to 0.7 per cent year-on-year in March 2020,
compared to 1.3 per cent recorded at the end of the fourth quarter of
2019. The decline was due, mainly, to the sharp fall in energy prices,
driven by coronavirus containment measures, slower increase in
services price and oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In
the United Kingdom, inflation increased from 1.3 per cent in the fourth
quarter of 2019 to 1.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2020. The increase
was due, mainly, to rise in prices of transport, fuels and lubricants.
In Major Emerging Market and Developing Economies, inflation in
China fell to 4.3 per cent in March 2020 from 4.5 per cent recorded in
December 2019. The deceleration in inflation was driven, primarily by
government control measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak,
which reduced the cost of both food and non-food. In Brazil, inflation
fell to 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 from 4.31 per cent in the
fourth quarter of 2019. The development was due, largely, to low prices
for transportation, household items and personal expenses.
In major Sub-Saharan African countries, inflation heightened due to
tight monetary conditions. Inflation in Nigeria rose to 12.26 per cent in
the first quarter of 2020 from 11.98 per cent in December 2020,
reflecting, largely, the continued impact of border protection and hike
in VAT tax rate. In Ghana, inflation fell by 0.1 per cent in March 2020 to
7.8 per cent from 7.9 in the fourth quarter of 2019, driven by a slowdown
in prices of non-food products. In South Africa, inflation increased
slightly to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, from 4.0 per cent in
fourth quarter of 2019, due largely to increase in transport prices.
The inflationary pressures experienced in the first quarter of 2020 is likely
to persist in the subsequent quarters, especially in countries that were


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

severely hit by supply disruptions and shortages due to the effects of
the Coronavirus pandemic. However, in others, persistent weak
demand may lead to lower inflation expectations.
7.3 International Financial Markets
Developments in major international stock markets were bearish in the
first quarter of 2020 due to negative impact of Coronavirus pandemic.
In North America, the United States S&P 500, the Canada S&P/TSX
Composite index and Mexico Bolsa (IPC) decreased by 30.7 per cent,
34.2 per cent, and 24.3 per cent, respectively. In South America, the
Argentine Marvel index, the Brazilian Bovespa and the Colombian
COLCAP indices decreased by 45.0 per cent, 42.7 per cent and 44.7
per cent, respectively. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100, the France CAC 40,
and German DAX indices decreased by 33.8 per cent, 34.5 and 34.7
per cent respectively. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai
Stock Exchange-A, and the India’s BSE Sensex indices decreased by
28.6 per cent, 12.8 per cent and 37.0 per cent, respectively. In Africa,
the Nigerian ASI, the South African JSE, the Kenya Nairobi NSE 20, Egypt
EGX CSE 30 and Ghana’s GSE indices decreased by 19.2 per cent, 33.0
per cent, 26.2 per cent, 28.0 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.
In the foreign exchange market, the performance of 13 out of the 16
currencies surveyed showed depreciation against the US dollar, due to
the downturn in global manufacturing, crash in oil prices, and the
negative impact of coronavirus pandemic. The movement in the
regional currencies exchange rates were as follows:


In North America, the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso
depreciated against the US dollar by 9.8 per cent and 19.2 per
cent, respectively;


In Europe, the pound Sterling, euro and Russian rubble
depreciated against the US dollar by 11.8 per cent, 4.8 per cent
and 20.5 per cent, respectively;


In South America, the Brazilian real, Argentine peso and
Colombian peso depreciated against the US dollar by 17.5
percent, 5.5 per cent and 16.6 per cent, respectively;


In Asia, the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee
depreciated against the US Dollar by 2.0 per cent, 2.1 per cent
and 6.3 per cent, respectively; and


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

In Africa, the Egyptian pound appreciated against the US dollar
by 0.40 per cent, while the Nigerian naira, South African rand,
Kenyan shillings and Ghanaian cedi depreciated by 15.0 per
cent, 17.2 per cent, 5.8 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively.

7.4
Outlook for Nigeria in the Second Quarter of 2020
On the domestic front, although the real GDP grew by 2.55 per cent in
the fourth quarter of 2019, driven, largely by the services sub-sector, the
growth trajectory is expected to slow-down by the second quarter of
2020, on account of the tepid global demand in the wake of the recent
COVID-19 pandemic and declining crude oil prices. Inflationary
pressures continued, as headline inflation rose to 12.26 per cent in
March 2020, 0.06 per cent point higher than the rate recorded in
February 2020. The development was driven, largely, by increase in
food prices. It should be noted, however, that the inflation was not
significantly affected in March, as the effects of major state lockdowns,
due to COVID-19 pandemic, effectively manifested in April 2020.
The efforts of the fiscal and monetary authorities are expected to
moderate the adverse effects of the COVID-19. Specifically, reduction
of PMS pump price from N145 per litre to N125.0 per litre, establishment
of a N500 billion COVID-19 intervention fund by the Federal
Government, and the CBN N3.5 trillion stimulus package to households,
healthcare sector, manufacturers and businesses, alongside other
stimulus packages, would help improve the economic stance going
forward. Furthermore, the subsisting loan-to-deposit ratio and
continued intervention in the real sector is expected to provide stimulus
for aggregate demand and supply in the economy during the period.
Notwithstanding, the headwinds facing the domestic economy
include: decrease in foreign exchange receipts, owing to decline in oil
prices and OPEC+ supply cut deal as demand for oil declines; difficulty
in inventory adjustments, due to supply chain disruptions, occasioned
by restrictions on travels and land border protections; increased fiscal
deficits; and several structural rigidities. These risks could limit the fiscal
space, elevate the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks, as
well as retard the recovery potentials of growth-inducing sectors.
In light of the foregoing, output growth is projected to maintain a
modest downward trend in the near-term. Real GDP is expected to
slow to 1.87 per cent in Q1 2020, given that the effects of the lockdown


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

due to the pandemic, would manifest in April. In Q2 2020, output is
expected to contract by negative 0.88 per cent. This is predicated on
the assumption that the COVID-19 pandemic would persist until the
end of the second quarter. Furthermore, consumer prices are
projected to rise to 12.56 and 12.58 per cent, in April and May 2020,
respectively, owing to supply shocks during this period. Also, the
decline in external reserves would be sustained, given the downward
trend of oil price, weakened global demand, as well as OPEC+ supply
cut deal, which could likely exacerbate pressures at the foreign
exchange market.
Against this background, policymakers are expected to nurture the
fragile recovery of the economy with caution and employ appropriate
policy instruments to tackle the likely adverse effects of the pandemic.
Although the recent policies put in place by the monetary and fiscal
authorities to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are
commendable, the fiscal space should be optimally utilised, along with
the implementation of structural reforms policies to boost growth and
welfare over the medium-term. In addition, clear-cut monetary and
financial policies would go a long way in tackling tight financial
conditions and systemic stress that might emanate from the global
health crisis. It is pertinent to mention that foreign exchange
management is imperative, given the negative sentiment of foreign
investors, which are likely to exacerbate pressures in the foreign
exchange market. Finally, harmony between fiscal and monetary
policy, as well as multilateral cooperation, is very imperative to
ameliorate the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the
short-run as well as sustain and strengthen growth in the future.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates (N’ Billion)
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Domestic Claims (Net)
28,453.00

32,982.06

32,503.16

35,683.14

36,178.34

37,975.86

Claims on Government (Net)
4,916.77

7,274.27

7,716.21

9,924.36

9,483.82

9,732.04

Monetray Authority (Net)
835.47

3,182.64

3,284.86

5,589.35

5,154.05

6,177.64

Other Depository Corporations (Net)
4,081.29

4,091.63

4,431.35

4,335.01

4,329.77

3,554.39

Claims on other Sectors
23,536.26

25,707.79

24,786.95

25,758.78

26,694.53

28,243.82

Claims in Other Financial Corporations
7,797.47

9,295.41

8,386.28

8,594.19

8,437.10

9,205.13

Monetary Authority
7,073.36

8,492.15

7,637.81

7,682.57

7,637.12

8,264.86

Other Depository Corporations
724.12

803.25

748.47

911.62

799.99

940.25

Claims on Private Sector
13,226.99

13,790.57

13,862.77

14,505.34

15,247.23

16,141.20

Monetary Authority
86.58

50.60

142.68

55.60

56.00

57.02

Other Depository Corporations
13,140.42

13,739.97

13,720.09

14,449.74

15,191.22

16,084.18

Claims on State and Local Government
1,746.27

1,777.70

1,764.77

1,755.61

1,869.67

1,870.84

Monetary Authority
606.52

612.12

614.92

614.92

611.68

610.65

Other Depository Corporations
1,139.76

1,165.59

1,149.86

1,140.69

1,257.99

1,260.19

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises


Monetary Authority

Other Depository Corporations

Foreign Assets (Net)
11,838.71

10,022.58

9,936.48

5,397.55

5,804.37

6,397.76

Monetary Authority
12,126.99

9,730.56

9,283.82

6,137.19

7,657.57

8,166.51

Other Depository Corporations
(288.28)

292.03

652.66

(739.64)

(1,853.19)

(1,768.76)

Other Items (Net)
2,887.85

5,187.34

3,714.24

2,410.96

1,799.06

3,050.98

Broad Money Supply (M3)
32,739.62

33,481.29

34,440.80

34,229.64

34,776.38

35,635.13

Other Deposits 1/
16,053.43

16,598.05

17,880.14

17,194.17

18,250.06

19,785.23

Narrow Money Supply (M1)
10,401.98

9,880.33

9,558.23

9,667.25

10,533.13

11,063.13

Currency Outside Depository Corporations
1,907.35

1,779.67

1,633.95

1,623.64

2,022.64

1,890.48

Transferrable Deposits 2/
8,494.64

8,100.66

7,924.29

8,043.61

8,510.50

9,172.66

Money Supply (M2)
26,455.41

26,478.39

27,438.38

26,861.43

28,783.19

30,848.37

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors
6,284.21

7,002.91

7,002.42

7,368.22

5,993.19

4,786.76

Broad Money Supply (M3)
32,739.62

33,481.29

34,440.80

34,229.64

34,776.38

35,635.13

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
7,180.01

8,149.54

7,187.18

7,000.37

8,669.83

10,147.92

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
2,329.71

2,154.98

2,014.07

2,005.60

2,442.99

2,296.17

Banks' Deposit with CBN
4,850.31

5,994.56

5,173.11

4,994.76

6,226.84

7,853.18


Source: CBN

1/ Other Deposits consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Transferrable Deposits consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates (%))*
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Domestic Claims (Net)

Claims on Government (Net)

Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises


Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Items (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Other Deposits 1/

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Depository Corporations

Transferrable Deposits 2/

Total Money Assets (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Monetary Authority Liabilities to Other Depository
Corporations

Domestic Claims (Net)

Claims on Government (Net)

Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Items (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)


Other Deposits 1/

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside depository Coprporations

Transferrable Deposits 2/

Money Supply (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Monetary Authority Liabilities to Other Depository
Corporations

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

Source: CBN
1/ Other Deposits consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Transferrable Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public
Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

*All figures are provisional.

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion) *
Retained Revenue
1,130.91

971.72

1,279.54

1,418.87

864.88

Federation Account
709.03

716.29
866.79

786.35

729.63

VAT Pool Account
43.43

42.55

41.89

41.46

44.52

FGN Independent Revenue
111.81

104.22

207.34

133.97

82.03

Excess oil
-

35.79

-

-

-

Excess non-oil
6.40

-

0.92

3.99

0.35

Exchange gain
21.41

1.21

1.44

25.62

8.36

Others
238.83

71.66

161.16

427.47

-

Expenditure
2,512.57

2,389.36

2,185.53

2,627.38

2,327.80

Recurrent
1,942.48

1,605.80

1,763.30

1,685.81

1,757.13

Capital

Transfers
114.87

115.30

116.81

81.49

97.34

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,381.66)

(1,417.64)

(906.00)

(1,208.51)

(1,462.92)


*First Quarter 2020 figures are provisional.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter