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CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


First Quarter

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ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report present developments
in the Nigeria economy, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which
is published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the
Nigerian economy, as well as global development that impact the domestic
economy. In addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit
of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors,
and the public. Free download of the Report, including current and past
issues can be obtained from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All
inquiries concerning the Report should be directed to the Director,
Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja,
Nigeria.


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Content


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Tables
Table 3: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major
Agricultural Export Commodities for First Quarter 2024 (US$; Jan
Table 10: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (%)
Table 13: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian

Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries8
Figure 12: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC Quota17
Figure 13: Sub-sectors with Largest Contribution to GDP Growth
Figure 14: Sub-sectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth and


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Figure 18: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q12025
Figure 19: Bottom Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in
Figure 20: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition (₦ Billion)
Figure 23: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier
Figure 30: Primary Market Auctions of FGN Bonds (₦ Billion) 37
Figure 31: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates38
Figure 33: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index .. 39
Figure 34: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Q12025 Sectoral Indices
Figure 36: Key Financial Soundness Indicators
Figure 41: Primary Income Balance47
Figure 42: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow .... 48
Figure 43: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover
Figure 44: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy


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SUMMARY
The momentum of the global economy decelerated in the first quarter of 2025,
largely reflecting a slowdown in the services sector. Inflation pressures eased
across both Advanced Economies (AEs) and Emerging Market and Developing
Economies (EMDEs), due to declining energy and food prices, and lower housing
and utilities costs. However, investor caution, stemming from anticipation of
reciprocal trade measures by the US impacted financial markets in AEs and EMDEs.
The domestic economy expanded in Q12025, due majorly to activities in the
services and industry sectors. Headline inflation in the review period edged
upward, mainly due to rising transportation, food, and energy costs. Domestic
crude oil production improved on the back of strengthened security measures
around oil infrastructure.
Federally collected revenue grew by 45.22 per cent year-on-year but declined by
12.02 per cent relative to Q42024. Non-oil revenue dominated the gross federation
earnings during the period. Allocations to the three tiers of government rose by
8.30 per cent following a reduced statutory deduction. As at end-March 2025,
Nigeria’s public debt stood at ₦149.39 trillion (33.10% of GDP), well within the
threshold for Market-Access Countries.
The Central Bank maintained a tight monetary policy stance aimed at anchoring
inflation expectations, as growth in both the monetary base and broad money
supply (M3) moderated compared with end-December 2024 levels. The fixedincome segment remained buoyant, underpinned by stable macroeconomic
fundamentals and attractive returns. Meanwhile, key money market rates trended
lower but remained within the policy corridor, attesting to the efficacy of the Bank’s
liquidity management operations. Overall, the financial system remained sound
and resilient, as evidenced by the robustness of prudential indicators.
External sector dynamics in Q1 2025 were shaped by global and domestic
developments. The overall balance of payments recorded a deficit, reversing the
surplus of the preceding quarter, primarily due to a drawdown in external reserves
to meet international obligations. However, the current account posted a lower
surplus, while the financial account recorded a net borrowing position, driven by
increased portfolio investment inflows. At US$37.82 billion, external reserves could
cover 7.88 months of goods and services or 11.63 months for goods alone. The
average exchange rate at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM)
appreciated to ₦1,521.56/US$, from ₦1,623.26/US$ in Q4 2024.


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1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity slowed in Q12025, due, majorly, to a weaker performance
in the service sector. Inflation in both AEs and EMDEs moderated, following
declines in the cost of energy, food, housing and utilities. Uncertainties around the
US trade policies impacted financial markets in AEs and EMDEs.

1.1
Global Economic Activity
In Q12025, the global economy witnessed a slowdown, owing to a weaker service
sector. The global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) expanded at a
slower pace at 51.80 index points in Q12025 compared with 52.43 index points in
the preceding quarter. The services PMI slowed to 52.13 index points in Q12025
from 53.33 index points in the preceding quarter owing to a decline in new orders
and new export business, as well as rising costs of inputs. The manufacturing
sector, however, expanded to 50.33 index points in Q12025 from a contraction of
49.37 index points in the preceding quarter, owing to an uptick in production and
new orders, partly driven by firms’ accelerated activity ahead of the anticipated
tariff implementations.

Table 1: Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q12024
Q42024
Q12025
Composite (Output)
52.07
52.43
51.80
Employment Level
50.77
50.03
50.37
New Business Orders
51.70
52.13
51.80
New Export Business Orders
49.53
48.97
49.80
Future Output
63.50
62.20
61.53
Input Prices
56.23
56.63
57.07
Output Prices
53.30
52.47
52.67


Manufacturing
50.30
49.37
50.33
Services (Business Activity)
52.40
53.33
52.13
New Business
52.17
52.83
52.10
New Export Business
50.53
50.93
50.20
Future Activity
63.90
61.87
61.53
Employment
51.17
50.70
50.87
Outstanding Business
49.63
49.60
49.27
Input Prices
57.47
57.40
57.77
Prices Charged
53.90
52.87
52.90
Source: JP Morgan

Economic activity in advanced economies (AEs) exhibited divergent trends, with
most economies recording slower growth. PMI in the US and UK expanded at a
slower pace in Q12025, at 52.60 and 50.87 index points from 54.80 and 50.90
index points in Q42024, due to lower economic activities in the manufacturing and
Global Economic
Activity
Economic activity
in Advanced
Economies
Summary

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services sectors. The slowdown in the US was attributed to lower employment
levels, concerns over domestic spending cuts, and rising trade tensions. Similarly,
output across key sectors in the UK declined, due to US-imposed tariffs which
affected exports. PMI in Spain also slowed to 54.37 index points from 55.07 index
points in Q42024 due to a significant downturn in new orders in the services and
manufacturing sector.
PMI contracted to 46.10 index points in Canada from 50.40 index points in the
preceding quarter, owing to job losses, a downturn in new orders, decline in
manufacturing output, and rising input cost. France recorded further contraction
to 46.90 index points in Q12025 from 47.17 index points, driven by a persistent
fall in new orders, a contraction in the services and manufacturing sectors
activities, and job losses.
Germany and Italy PMI, however, expanded to 50.73 and 50.70 index points,
respectively, from 47.93 and 49.47 index points. The development was fuelled by
easing unemployment, lower input costs and an uptick in new business orders.
The PMI in Japan expanded further to 50.67 index points in Q12025 from 50.07
index points in Q42024, owing to sustained rise in employment and an uptick in
new orders.

Figure 1: PMI in Selected Advanced Economies
Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.

Economic activity in EMDEs followed a similar trend as in AEs, with most countries
displaying slower growth. In India and Brazil, PMI expanded at a slower pace to
58.67 and 50.67 index points, respectively, from 58.97 and 53.63 index points in
the preceding quarter. Similarly, PMI in China and Russia declined to 51.47 and
51.40 index points, from 51.87 and 51.53 index points in Q42024. The slowdown
in these economies reflected moderation in the services sector, deceleration in
new orders and exports, weakening employment conditions, persistent cost
inflation, and declining business sentiment.

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Index Points
Axis Title
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
50-point Threshold
Economic activity
in EMDEs

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South Africa’s PMI contracted to 46.23 index points from 50.47 index points in the
preceding quarter, weighed by weak domestic demand, input supply constraints,
and low exports. The PMI in Mexico contracted further to 47.73 index points, from
49.37 index points in Q42024, owing to rising input costs, decline in exports and
new orders particularly in the automotive industry, as uncertainty around US
tariffs dampened demand, which in turn exacerbated job losses.
The pace of contraction in Turkey reduced to 47.87 index points, from 47.73 index
points in the preceding quarter, amid rising input costs, weak demand, and
currency depreciation. PMI in Indonesia, however, expanded further to 52.63
index points from 50.00 index points, driven by a surge in new orders, increased
purchasing activity, increased employment and improved business sentiment.

Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.
Note: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI.

1.2 Global Inflation
Global Inflation moderated in Q12025, owing to a decline in energy prices, easing
transportation, food, housing, and utilities costs. Inflation decelerated to 2.40 per
cent from 2.90 per cent in the US, while in Spain, it declined to 2.30 per cent from
2.80 per cent; Germany and France also recorded disinflation during the review
period. Lower inflation in these economies was driven largely by decline in fuel
prices, lower transportation costs, and a continued deceleration in core inflation.
In the US, a further easing in housing costs also contributed to the disinflation.
Inflation in Japan remained at 3.60 per cent, as easing energy and food prices, due
to subsidies, were counterbalanced by the rising costs of clothing, healthcare, and
transport. In the UK, however, inflation rose to 2.60 per cent, from 2.50 per cent
in Q42024, due to higher prices of clothing and footwear, as seasonal trends
pushed up prices. Similarly, inflation in Canada rose to 2.30 per cent from 1.80 per
cent in the preceding quarter, driven by a sharp rise in food prices, following the

CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH
AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Index Points
Axis Title
Q1 2024
Q4 2023
Q5 2024
50-point Threshold
Global Inflation

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end of goods and services tax breaks. Italy also recorded an uptick in inflation to
1.90 per cent from 1.30 per cent, following the increases in non-regulated energy
costs, and the prices of tobacco, non-processed food, and recreational & cultural
services.

Figure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)
Source: Trading Economics

Inflation pressures continue to ease in most EMDEs during the review period.
Inflation in India declined to 3.34 per cent, from 5.60 per cent in Q42024,
tempered by the sustained moderation in the prices of vegetables, pulses, eggs
and spices, and declining energy costs. Similarly, inflation moderated in Indonesia
to 1.03 per cent from 1.57 per cent, due to lower housing and communication
prices.
South Africa and Mexico also recorded disinflations to 2.70 and 3.80 per cent,
respectively, from 3.00 and 4.21 per cent, following lower costs of energy, food &
non-alcoholic beverages, housing and utilities. Inflation decelerated in Turkey to
38.10 per cent from 44.38 per cent in the preceding quarter owing to reduced
costs of clothing and footwear, transport, furnishings, healthcare, recreation, and
hospitality.
In China, inflation remained at 0.10 per cent as seasonally driven increases during
the Lunar New Year were offset by deflationary effects of the US trade dispute and
declining transportation costs.
Inflation in Brazil and Russia, however, rose to 5.48 and 10.30 per cent,
respectively, from 4.83 and 9.50 per cent in the preceding quarter, due to
persistent increases in the prices of food and services. Higher costs of
transportation, health, and clothing, were additional drivers in Brazil, while Russia
experienced a surge in the costs of fruits and vegetables.

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY FRANCE
JAPAN
CANADA
ITALY
SPAIN
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025

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Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics

1.3
Global Financial Markets
1.3.1 Global Financial Conditions
The performance of financial markets was mixed across AEs and EMDEs in the
review quarter, as investors remain cautious over trade tensions and the pace of
monetary policy normalisation. The performance of energy and healthcare related
stocks were dampened by concerns around tariff policies. Consequently, the US
S&P 500 and Dow Jones, delivered a 4.59 and 1.28 per cent loss to investors,
respectively, due to fears about Chinese AI firm DeepSeek, uncertainties on trade
tariffs and planned public sector jobs cuts by the new Department of Government
Efficiency (DOGE). Similarly, the Japanese equity market was bearish in Q12025,
ending the quarter with a negative return of 10.72 and 4.53 per cent for the NIKKEI
and TOPIX indices, respectively. The depreciation in these stocks was due to weak
performance in larger stocks, particularly in the technology and exporter sectors,
uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policies, as well as rising concerns about the
risk of a US recession.

INDIA
INDONESIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
BRAZIL
CHINA
MEXICO
RUSSIA
TURKEY
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025

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The German DAX and Italian FTSE MIB, however, posted positive returns of 11.32
and 11.31 per cent, respectively, as investors reassess the concentrated
positioning in US large caps and switch portfolios. The optimism that the new
German administration would pursue a pro-growth agenda also contributed to the
positive return. Similarly, the EURO STOXX and France CAC 40, appreciated by 7.20
and 5.55 per cent, respectively. The gains in these stocks were supported by strong
performance in large- capitalised financials, energy and healthcare sectors, as
investors shift away from richly valued US technology stocks.
Most equities in EMDEs rebounded in Q12025 supported by weaker US dollar and
falling US 10-year Treasury yield. The Brazilian BOVESPA and Mexico’s MEXBOL
rose by 8.29 and 6.00 per cent, respectively. The gains in the Brazilian BOVESPA
were attributed to weakening US dollar against the Brazilian real, while the strong
performance of Mexico’s MEXBOL was attributed to the temporary suspension of
US trade tariffs. The South African JALSH and Russian MOEX also posted gains of
5.40 and 4.52 per cent, respectively. The positive return of the South African JALSH
was buoyed by monetary policy rate cut, while the performance of the Russian
MOEX was supported by optimism following a phone call between the US and
Russian presidents, strong corporate earnings, expanded trading offerings, and
resilient domestic demand. Similarly, the Chinese SZI rebounded by 0.86 per cent,
as the market benefited from optimism about its AI capabilities following the initial
release of DeepSeek’s lower-cost open-source AI model, and the announcement
of several stimulus measures aimed at supporting domestic consumption. The
India’s BSE SENSEX, however, fell by 0.93 per cent, amid investors’ fears over the
US trade tariff announcement.
Figure 5: Performance of Key Global Stocks (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics


US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q4 2024
Q1 2025

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The performance of long-term bond differed across AEs and EMDEs in the review
period, due to global trade policy uncertainty. In the AEs, the 10-year bond yield in
the Euro Area rose to 2.73 per cent from 2.36 per cent, as Germany’s fiscal regime
changes prompted a significantly improved outlook across Europe. Similarly, yield
in the UK grew to 4.67 per cent from 4.57 per cent in the preceding quarter, as
the weakening of the US dollar and falling US 10-year Treasury yield boosted the
attractiveness of the UK’s fixed income assets and increased investors’ preference
for UK and Euro Area instruments.
In Italy and Japan, yields rose to 3.86 and 1.49 per cent, respectively, from 3.53
and 1.09 per cent in the preceding quarter, supported by a fall in the US real yields
and weaker US dollar. Additionally, market expectation of interest rate hike by the
Bank of Japan (BoJ) propped the yield in Japan.
Yields in the US and Canada, however, fell to 4.25 and 2.97 per cent, respectively,
from 4.58 and 3.23 per cent, as rising trade uncertainty weakened investor
sentiment.
In the EMDEs, yields in Turkey, Russia, and South Africa rallied to 31.33 and 15.25
per cent, respectively, from 27.19 and 14.16 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The performance in Russia was supported by the de-escalation of the RussiaUkraine war and improved fiscal condition. The rally in Turkey was underpinned
by the bond buyback of the central bank to boost liquidity, while the development
in South Africa was attributed to the policy rate cut by the central bank.
Yields in Mexico, Indonesia, and India, however fell in the review quarter due,
largely, to rising US trade tariff concerns, which dampened investor appetite.

Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)


USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025

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The Chinese renminbi and the South African rand depreciated against the US dollar
by -1.11 and 3.20 per cent, respectively, relative to the preceding quarter. The
renminbi’s depreciation was largely driven by lingering concerns over China’s
subdued export performance. The South African rand weakened amid persistent
power supply disruptions, fiscal policy uncertainty and weaker commodity prices.
In contrast, the Russian ruble appreciated by 6.63 per cent, supported by
increased energy export revenues and relative moderation in currency market
interventions.

Figure 7: Selected EMDEs’ Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


Table 2: Selected EMDEs’ Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters

1.4
Global Commodity Markets
World crude oil demand slightly exceeded supply in Q12025, driven by increased
economic activity in non-OECD countries. Global crude oil demand, including
natural gas liquids (NGLs), increased by 0.37 per cent to 103.53 million barrels per
day (mbpd), from 103.15 mbpd in Q42024. The growth was driven by increased
demand from non-OECD countries, particularly in China and Japan, which rose by
1.26 per cent to 57.79 mbpd from 57.07 mbpd. However, the demand from OECD

Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian naira
South African rand
Russian ruble
Period
Chinese
RMB/US$
Nigerian
Naira/US$
South African
Rand/US$
Russian
Ruble/US$
Q1 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

World Crude Supply and
Demand
Selected
Emerging Markets
Currencies

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countries declined by 0.74 per cent to 45.74 mbpd, from 46.08 mbpd in the
previous quarter.
Global crude oil supply, including NGLs, rose by 0.06 per cent to 103.34 mbpd,
from 103.28 mbpd in Q42024 due to higher production from OPEC. The OPEC
supply rose by 1.05 per cent to 32.68 mbpd from 32.34 mbpd, driven mainly by
increased supply from Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab
Emirates (UAE), Congo and Gabon. The non-OPEC supply, however, fell by 0.38
per cent to 70.66 mbpd, from 70.93 mbpd, due to decreased output in the US,
Mexico, Brazil and Angola.

Crude oil spot prices rose in Q12025, driven mainly by increased demand for crude
in China, India and Japan following increased economic activity and escalating
tensions in the Middle East. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude,
the Bonny Light (34.9° API), increased by 2.46 per cent to US$77.52 per barrel (pb),
from US$75.66 pb in the preceding quarter. The prices of Brent, at US$76.68 pb,
Forcados (US$78.89 pb), WTI (US$72.83 pb) and OPEC Reference Basket
(US$76.80 pb) all exhibited similar trends as the Bonny Light.

Figure 8: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The average spot prices of most precious metals rose, driven primarily by
increased demand for gold by central banks and continued geopolitical tensions.
The average spot prices of gold, silver, and platinum rose by 7.54, 1.85, and 0.22
per cent, to US$2,861.67, US$31.90, and US$966.18 per ounce, respectively, from
US$2,660.86, US$31.32, and US$964.05 per ounce in the preceding quarter. The
rise in gold prices was attributed, primarily, to increased central bank buying and

Q 1 2 0 2 2
Q 2 2 0 2 2
Q 3 2 0 2 2
Q 4 2 0 2 2
Q 1 2 0 2 3
Q 2 2 0 2 3
Q 3 2 0 2 3
Q 4 2 0 2 3
Q 1 2 0 2 4
Q 2 2 0 2 4
Q 3 2 0 2 4
Q 4 2 0 2 4
Q 1 2 0 2 5
Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket
Crude Oil Prices
Other Mineral
Commodities

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a weakened US dollar, amid concerns of US trade policies. The improvement in
global industrial activity contributed to the rise in the price of silver and platinum.
The average spot price of palladium, however, decreased by 4.98 per cent to
US$957.80 per ounce, from US$1,007.99 per ounce in Q42024 due, primarily, to
weak demand.

Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The all-commodity price index of selected agricultural export commodities rose, as
supply constraints pushed up the prices of cocoa and coffee. The all-commodity
price index of the selected agricultural commodities increased by 3.62 per cent to
158.69 index points, from 153.15 index points in the preceding quarter, driven by
an increase in the prices of cocoa (15.33%) and coffee (12.05%), following supply
constraints due to weather-related disruptions in key producing regions and
escalating trade tensions. The prices of groundnut and palm oil fell by 8.72 and
6.67 per cent, respectively, compared with the levels in the preceding quarter, due
to an increase in supply, triggered mainly by expectations of higher trade tariffs.
Prices of soya beans, cotton, wheat, and rubber also fell during the period.

Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter
Agricultural
Commodity Prices


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Table 3: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major Agricultural
Export Commodities for First Quarter 2024 (US$; Jan 2010=100)
COMMODITY
2024Q1
2024Q4
2025Q1
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet


1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
Monetary policy easing continued across both AEs and EMDEs in Q12025,
following widespread disinflation. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark
rate by 50 basis points to 2.65 per cent, owing to a more favourable inflation
outlook. The Bank of England lowered its policy rate to 4.50 per cent from 4.75
per cent in the preceding quarter, following constrained consumer spending,
sluggish wage growth, and continued disinflation. Similarly, the Bank of Canada
reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 2.75 per cent as the continued
disinflation and slowing domestic demand necessitated support for economic
activity.
The US Fed maintained its policy rate within the 4.25 – 4.50 per cent range, as
inflation moved towards the 2.00 per cent target and the labour market remained
resilient. The Bank of Japan, however, raised its policy rate slightly to 0.50 per cent
from 0.25 per cent in the preceding quarter. Nonetheless, the policy rate is
deemed relatively accommodative, given lingering concerns around global
economic volatility and Japan’s domestic wage outlook. Most EMDEs also cut
policy rates as inflation pressure eased. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
and the Bank of Mexico implemented 250- and 100-basis-points cut, respectively,
reducing their policy rates to 42.50 and 9.00 per cent in Q12025. The monetary
policy decisions reflected efforts to support a fragile recovery, despite ongoing
inflation concerns in Turkey and the need to stimulate domestic demand amid
easing inflation pressures in Mexico. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate
by 50 basis points to 6.00 per cent to sustain growth, as inflation eased within the
tolerance band. The People’s Bank of China and the South African Reserve Bank
maintained their policy rates at 3.10 and 7.75 per cent, respectively. The
development in China was underpinned by the need to sustain recovery
momentum while in South Africa, the decision was informed by the relative price
stability. Similarly, Bank of Indonesia highlighted the need to balance economic

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growth and exchange rate stability as the benchmark rate remained unchanged at
5.75 per cent. The Central Bank of Russia maintained its policy rate at 21.00 per
cent to rein in inflation caused by supply disruptions and geopolitical instability.
Brazil, however, raised policy rate to 14.25 per cent from 12.25 per cent in the
preceding quarter to stabilise the macroeconomic environment amid persistent
high inflation and fiscal concerns.

Table 4: Central Bank Policy Rates (Per cent)
Country
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
US

Canada

Euro Area

United Kingdom

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

Chin

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics.


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2.0
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
The domestic economy expanded in Q12025, following improved activities in the
services and industry sectors. Headline inflation rose on account of higher
transport, food and energy costs. Domestic crude oil production rose in Q12025,
due to enhanced security around oil installations.

2.1
Real Sector Developments
The economy grew by 3.13 per cent in Q12025 to N49.344 trillion, driven mainly by
the performance of the non-oil sector, especially services. The growth rate was
slower than the 3.76 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter but was faster
than the 2.27 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The
expansion was on account of increased activities in the ICT, trading, finance and
insurance, as well as crop production subsectors, following increased investment
in infrastructure, which improved the business environment, consequently
spurring economic activities. The non-oil sector, thus, grew by 3.19 per cent
(contributing 3.06 percentage points to the realised growth), compared with a
growth rate of 3.80 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The Federal Government remained focused on improving crude oil output; the
government's efforts led to the oil sector maintaining its growth for the review
period. The sector grew by 1.87 per cent, compared with 2.08 per cent in the
preceding quarter, thereby contributing 0.07 percentage point to the overall
growth in the period under review. The performance of the oil sector was on
account of improved security and surveillance of oil installations in the producing
regions, leading to reduced oil theft and enhanced production to an average of
1.67mbpd in Q12025 from 1.63 mbpd in Q42024, including condensate.

Figure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate (Year-on-Year)

Source: National Bureau of Statistic


Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP
Domestic Output
and Economic
Activities
Summary

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2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
Growth in Q12025 was strong in services and industry sectors but modest in
agriculture sector. The services sector expanded by 4.33 per cent, compared with
4.06 per cent in Q12024 and 4.75 per cent in Q42024. It remained the most
dominant sector, accounting for 57.50 per cent of aggregate GDP.

Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Within the services sector, the information and communications subsector (ICT)
grew by 7.40 per cent (contributing 0.75 percentage point to GDP growth). The
robust growth outcome was on account of increased fintech innovations, as well
as growing investments in digital infrastructure. Additionally, various state
governments continued to implement initiatives, policies and ICT projects that
helped attract more ICT investments to their states. Moreso, the change in the
share of real estate from the rebasing exercise contributed to the services
subsector’s enhanced growth of 4.61 per cent, with a contribution of 0.60
percentage point to overall growth. The growth in the real estate subsector was
due to increased adoption of smart home technologies, the rise of PropTech,
improved diaspora investment, as well as government initiatives to promote
affordable housing and infrastructure development. Furthermore, the financial &
insurance subsector grew by 15.03 per cent, compared with 5.99 per cent in
Q42024. The performance was boosted by the continuous gains from the bank
recapitalisation exercise initiated by the CBN in 2024, as DMBs continued to
strategise to meet the 2025 deadline. Activities in the trade subsector improved,
as it grew by 1.78 per cent, contributing 0.33 percentage point to overall growth
in Q12025.
Also, the transport and storage subsector grew by 14.08 per cent, compared with
13.21 per cent in the preceding quarter of 2024. Sustained investments in the

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Agriculture
Industry

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transport infrastructure, particularly the construction of roads across the country,
aided the observed performance.
The agriculture sector slightly grew by 0.07 per cent in Q12025, compared with a
growth of 2.54 per cent in the preceding quarter and a contraction of 1.79 per cent
in the corresponding quarter. Growth in agriculture was driven by increased dryseason farming, as well as early harvesting of late 2024 plantings. The
development contributed to increased productivity in the crop production
subsector, which grew by 3.71 per cent in the period under review, compared with
2.75 per cent in Q42024. The forestry subsector, supported by increased timber
production for construction purposes, grew by 1.82 per cent compared with 8.38
per cent in the preceding quarter. The livestock subsector, however, contracted
by 16.69 per cent compared with a growth of 1.39 per cent. Also, the fishing
subsector contracted by 0.21 per cent, compared with a 0.53 per cent contraction
in Q42024. The compounding issues of underinvestment, security challenges, and
high input costs, amid lower water levels, contributed to the contraction of both
subsectors.
The industry sector grew by 3.42 per cent in Q12025, contributing 0.65 percentage
point to GDP growth, compared with the 2.49 per cent growth recorded in
Q42024. Although it accounted for the smallest share (19.18%) of aggregate GDP,
the sector’s performance was driven by sustained government investment in
infrastructure, particularly in the construction, manufacturing, and mining &
quarrying subsectors. The performance of the sector reflected in improved index
of industrial production to 4.17 per cent, from 1.76 per cent in Q4 2024.

Table 5: Index of Industrial Production
Period
IIP
Y-o-Y Change
Q12024
105.17
3.31
Q22024
95.71
4.15
Q32024
94.97
2.01
Q42024
93.33
1.76
Q12025
109.56
4.17
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production

The construction subsector grew by 6.21 per cent, compared with 6.55 per cent
recorded in Q42024. The growth was supported by increased public and private
investments in infrastructure, notably in transportation, real estate, and the oil
and gas sectors.
The mining & quarrying subsector, which includes crude oil production, expanded
by 2.97 per cent compared with 3.15 per cent in Q42024. The improved
performance was largely driven by increased crude oil production, including
condensate, which rose to 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.63 mbpd in
Industrial Production

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Q42024, due to enhanced security in oil-producing regions and a decline in oil
theft. The increase was due, primarily, to improved output from Bonny, Tunga,
Escravos, Forcados, and Qua Iboe crude streams/terminals. Though crude oil
output without condensate at an average of remained below the target, it attained
98.0 per cent of the OPEC production quota of 1.50 mbpd.

Figure 12: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC Quota
Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)

The development was also reflected in the estimated Index of Mining Production,
which rose significantly by 8.23 per cent, from 2.22 per cent in the preceding
quarter.

Table 6: Index of Mining Production
Period
IIP
Y-o-Y Change
Q12024
60.54
6.21
Q22024
53.44
7.74
Q32024
53.78
3.22
Q42024
45.51
2.22
Q12025
65.52
8.23
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of mining production

Similarly, the manufacturing subsector grew by 1.69 per cent in Q12025, from 1.28
per cent in Q42024, on account of a more stable foreign exchange market and
easing inflationary pressures. The growth witnessed in the manufacturing
subsector was reflected in the improvement recorded in the Index of
Manufacturing Production, which grew by 1.44 per cent year-on-year. Hence, the
estimated average manufacturing capacity utilisation increased by 0.50
percentage point to 62.40 per cent from 61.90 per cent in Q42024. Other
components of the industry sector also performed well as the water supply,

Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
mbpd
Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota
Manufacturing

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sewage & waste management subsector grew by 9.43 per cent (compared with
9.52 per cent in Q4 2024).

Table 7: Index of Manufacturing Production
Period
IIP
Y-o-Y Change
Q12024
208.38
1.50
Q22024
175.73
1.29
Q32024
185.16
0.90
Q42024
196.13
1.79
Q12025
211.38
1.44
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMP refers to the index of mining production


2.1.2 Energy Sector
The performance of the energy sector improved, as the Federal Government
continued to implement the generation and transmission phase of the Siemens
power project. The sector’s performance was further aided by increased
investment in renewable energy and improved gas supply to thermal stations,
which resulted in an increase in electricity production and supply. The electricity,
gas, steam & air conditioning supply subsector rebounded with an impressive
18.65 per cent growth, following a contraction of 7.97 per cent in the preceding
quarter. Thus, the estimated Index of Electricity Production rose by 2.96 per cent
y-o-y, from a negative growth of 1.64 per cent in Q42024. The development was
on account of improved generation, with the average estimated electricity
generation in Q12025 rising by 1.52 per cent to 4,501.68 MW/h from 4,434.39
MW/h in Q42024, amid improved gas supply to thermal stations. Similarly, the
average estimated electricity consumption grew by 13.37 per cent to 3,810.14
MW/h from 3,360.81 MW/h in Q42024 on account of increased electricity supply.

Table 8: Index of Electricity Production
Period
IIP
Y-o-Y Change
Q12024
208.38
1.50
Q22024
175.73
1.29
Q32024
185.16
0.90
Q42024
196.13
1.79
Q12025
211.38
1.44
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to the index of electricity production


Overall, out of the 22 subsectors in the economy, 19 subsectors grew, while 3
subsectors – livestock, fishing and other services subsectors contracted during the
quarter.

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Figure 13: Sub-sectors with Largest Contribution to GDP Growth and their
Growth Rates (per cent)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Figure 14: Sub-sectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth and their
Growth Rates (per cent)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.3 Inflation
Headline inflation remained largely elevated, driven by the core component of the
CPI basket in Q12025. Headline inflation (year-on-year) stood at 24.23 per cent in
Q12025, due mainly to cost-push factors.
Core inflation stood at 24.43 per cent during the quarter under review, due to
elevated energy prices, which led to increased cost of production for firms.

(2.92%) Administrative and Support Services
(1.83%) Public Administration
(9.63%) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
(18.65%) Electricity,Gas,Steam & Air...
(2.53%) Professional, Scientific & Technical...
(2.97%) Mining and Quarrying
(14.08%) Transportation and Storage
(1.69%) Manufacturing
(6.21%) Construction
(1.78%) Trade
(15.03%) Financial and Insurance
(4.61%) Real Estate
(3.71%) Crop Production
(7.40%) Information and Communication
0.00
-0.09
-0.65
Fishing (-0.21%)
Other Services (-6.13%)
Livestock (-16.69%)
Headline Inflation

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Food inflation was 21.79 per cent (y-o-y), following increased transportation cost,
which rose from an average of N2,711 per km in Q12024 to N3,755 per km in
Q12025. The lingering security and infrastructural challenges continued to limit
food supply, keeping food inflation elevated.
Inflation was higher in urban areas at 26.12 per cent, compared with the rural areas
(20.89%). The higher rate in urban areas was due to the higher cost of living, and
increased transportation and logistics costs.

Figure 15: Headline Inflation (Year-on-Year)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.4 Socio-Economic Developments
The Federal Government (FG) approved 13 road contracts worth ₦679 billion
across the states of the federation. It also approved the dualisation of OdupaniItu-Idedem in Cross River and Akwa Ibom at a total cost of ₦55 billion; the
dualisation of Ibadan-Ilorin Road section two, in Oyo State (₦147 billion); the
completion of Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano roads (₦507 billion); and the construction
of a flyover at Abakpa bordering 82 division, Enugu (₦24 billion). Furthermore, in
a bid to reposition the Northeast region as a trade and investment hub, the FG
approved the upgrade of the Maiduguri Airport in Borno State to an international
status.

The FG approved provisional licences to 11 new private universities to increase
access to tertiary education. The universities are the New City University, Ayetoro,
Ogun State; the University of Fortune, Igbotako, Ondo State; the Eranova
University, Mabushi, Federal Capital Territory (FCT); the Minaret University, Ikirun,
Osun State; the Abubakar Toyin University, Oke-Agba, Kwara State; the Southern
Atlantic University, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State; the Lens University, Ilemona, Kwara
State; the Monarch University, Iyesi-Ota, Ogun State; the Tonnie Iredia University

Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Q12025
Per cent
Transportation
Education

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of Communication, Benin City, the Edo State; the Isaac Balami University of
Aeronautics and Management, Lagos; and the Kevin Eze University, Mgbowo,
Enugu State.
Furthermore, the FG approved ₦120 billion for the improvement of technical
education and training capacity at the various technical centres across the
country, to provide practical skills and knowledge for specific occupations and
industries, as well as address the level of unemployment.

The FEC approved ₦10.299 billion for the procurement of essential medical
supplies, including diabetes diagnostic kits, antiretroviral drugs, antibiotics, and
hypertensive medications. Specifically, ₦997 million was approved for third-line
antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV/AIDS patients who have developed resistance to
first- and second-line treatments; ₦2.0 billion for the procurement of locally
manufactured diabetes diagnostic kits to improve early detection and monitoring;
₦4.5 billion for essential antibiotics, antihypertensive,
and antidiabetic
medications; and ₦2.1 billion for the procurement of a mobile X-ray machines,
rehabilitation of a computerised tomography (CT) scan, and installation of a 64slice CT scanner at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University Teaching Hospital, Bauchi
State.
The FG also approved a subsidy on kidney dialysis in 11 hospitals, aimed at reducing
the cost from ₦50,000 to ₦12,000 only. The subsidy, which is being implemented
across the 11 Federal Government tertiary hospitals; the Federal Medical Centre
(FMC) Ebute-Metta Lagos; the Federal Medical Centre (FMC) Jabi, Abuja; the
University College Hospital (UCH) Ibadan; the Federal Medical Centre (FMC)
Owerri; the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH) Maiduguri; the
Federal Medical Centre (FMC) Abeokuta; the Lagos State University Teaching
Hospital (LUTH) Lagos; the Federal Medical Centre (FMC) Azare, Bauchi; the
University of Benin Teaching Hospital (UBTH) Benin; and the University of Calabar
Teaching Hospital (UCTH) Calabar.

2.1.5 Energy Sector and Electricity
The performance of the energy sector improved, as the Federal Government
continued to implement the generation and transmission phase of the Siemens
power project. The sector’s performance was further aided by increased
investment in renewable energy, and improved gas supply to thermal stations,
which resulted in an increase in electricity production and supply. Accordingly, the
average estimated electricity generation in Q12025 rose by 1.52 per cent to
4,501.68 MW/h from 4,434.39 MW/h in Q42024, amid improved gas supply to
thermal stations. Similarly, the average estimated electricity consumption grew by
13.37 per cent to 3,810.14 MW/h from 3,360.81 MW/h in Q42024 on account of
increased electricity supply.


Health

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Box 1: Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities
The prices of majority of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities increased in Q12025
compared with the preceding quarter. The price increases ranged from 0.89 per cent for Maize (white)
to 39.81 per cent for Onion (bulb) and driven primarily by the persistent increase in the costs of
production and transportation, exacerbated by elevated energy prices.


Q12024
Q42024
Q12025
%
Change
%
Change

UNIT

(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)
Agric eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye, sold
loose
"
1090.14

2489.69

1863.72

70.96

-25.14
Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"
2018.42

3140.82

3653.75

81.02

16.33
Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"
1528.03

2398.71

2813.47

84.12

17.29
Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality,
sold loose
"
1501.81

2493.74

2584.03

72.06

3.62
Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"
1888.41

3076.35

3794.40

100.93

23.34
Wheat flour: prepackaged
(Golden Penny)

2kg
2266.07

3812.90

3975.69

75.44

4.27
Yam tuber
1kg

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Staff Estimates


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2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Federally collected revenue rose by 45.22 per cent, over the level in the
corresponding quarter, but 12.02 per cent below the receipts in Q42024. Non-oil
revenue contributed 65.30 per cent to gross federation earnings in the review
period. Despite the decline in revenue outturn, allocation to the three tiers of
government increased by 8.30 per cent, reflecting lower statutory deductions. At
end-March 2025, public debt was ₦149.39 trillion (33.10% of GDP), which
remained below the 40.00 per cent threshold of Debt Management Office (DMO).1

2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Gross federation account earnings declined relative to the preceding quarter,
occasioned by a drop in non-oil revenue. At ₦7.22 trillion, provisional gross
federation account receipts was 12.02 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter. The development was due, largely, to low non-oil proceeds, particularly
independent revenue, which is inherently affected by seasonality. Non-oil revenue
remained dominant, accounting for 65.30 per cent of gross federation revenue,
while oil revenue constituted the balance.
Oil revenue rose by 25.05 per cent to ₦2.51 trillion, relative to the level in Q42024.
Sustained efforts in securing oil infrastructure contributed to the increased
receipts from royalties, and crude oil & gas exports.
Non-oil revenue, at ₦4.72 trillion, was 24.00 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter. The decline was driven by low collections from corporate tax
and FGN independent revenue, reflecting seasonal impact of tax return filings by
companies.2


1 2025 Nominal GDP is projected by growing the rebased 2024 Nominal GDP published by NBS
with 2025 real RGDP growth rate of 4.60 and inflation rate of 15.74 projected in MTEF 2025-2027.

2 Corporate tax is composed of company income tax, withholding tax and capital gain tax.


Summary
Federation Revenue

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Figure 16: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
(FMF)

Figure 17: Contribution to Federation Revenue

Source: Staff Estimates Based on Data from the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation
and Federal Ministry of Finance


Oil
2,004.312,506.39
Non-Oil
6,204.98
4,715.97
Federally
Collected
Revenue
8,209.29
7,222.36
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
34.70%
65.30%
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil
Revenue

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Table 9: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the Three-Tiers
of Government (₦ Billion)

Q12024
Q42024
Q12025
Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others*

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers**

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation.
Note* Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information
Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue,
and other non-regular earnings.
**Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls, while transfers entail
provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue.
/1 Provisional.


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From the federally collected revenue of ₦7.22 trillion, a net balance of ₦4.81
trillion was distributed to the three tiers of government after accounting for
statutory deductions and transfers. The federal, state, and local governments
received ₦1.51 trillion, ₦1.71 trillion and ₦1.24 trillion, respectively, while the
balance of ₦0.35 trillion was allocated to the 13% derivation fund for oil-producing
states. Net disbursement was 8.30 per cent above the level in Q42024.

In the first quarter of 2025, revenue allocation from the Federation Account
revealed significant variation across Nigerian states. Total subnational
governments allocation revealed that Lagos State topped the list with ₦0.29
trillion, followed by Rivers (₦0.21 trillion), Delta (₦0.17 trillion), Akwa Ibom (₦0.15
trillion), and Kano (₦0.13 trillion), reflecting their strong economic activity,
population size, and substantial contributions to national revenue. On the other
hand, Gombe (₦55.24 billion), Nasarawa (₦55.60 billion), Ebonyi (₦56.05 billion),
Ekiti (₦59.03 billion), and Taraba (₦60.84 billion) received comparatively lower
allocations. These figures may be attributed to differences in economic scale and
resource endowments.

Figure 18: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q12025 (₦
Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance


Lagos
Rivers
Delta
Akwa-Ibom
Kano

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Figure 19: Bottom Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q12025 (₦
Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance

At end-March 2025, public debt stock remained below the 40.00 per cent threshold
for Debt- Management Office (DMO). Total public debt outstanding stood at
₦149.39 trillion (33.10% of GDP), at end-March 2025, and was 3.27 per cent,
higher than the level at end-December 2024, due to new borrowings. A
breakdown of the consolidated public debt showed that domestic debt accounted
for 52.72 per cent, while external debt constituted 47.28 per cent. Of the
consolidated public debt stock, FGN owed ₦145.52 trillion (97.41%), while state
governments owed the balance.
A disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was N74.89 trillion,
constituting 51.46 per cent, while external debt constituted N70.63 trillion
(48.54%). Further analysis revealed that FGN Bonds maintained dominance, with
79.85 per cent of the total domestic debt stock, followed by treasury bills
(16.96%), promissory notes (1.74%), and FGN Sukuk (1.33%), while “others”
constituted the balance.3 Of the total external debt stock, multilateral debt
accounted for 48.80 per cent, commercial (38.08%) and bilateral loans (13.12%).


3 “Other” instruments of public debt include treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%), and
special FGN savings bond (0.11%)


Gombe
Nassarawa
Ebonyi
Ekiti
Taraba
Public Debt

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Figure 20: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition (₦ Billion)
Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 21: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument
Source: Debt Management Office

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
FGN External Debt
FGN Domestic Debt
Total Debt

FGN Bonds
Treasury Bills
FGN SUKUK
Promisory Notes
Others

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Figure 22: Composition of External Debt Stock
Source: Debt Management Office


Multilateral,
48.80%
Bilateral,
13.12%
Commercial,
38.08%

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2.3
Monetary and Financial Developments
The Bank sustained its tight monetary policy stance to rein in inflation, as the
growth in the monetary base and broad money supply (M3) moderated during the
review period. The fixed-income market remained attractive to investors, buoyed
by stable macroeconomic expectations and attractive yields. While the equities
and debt markets were bullish. Key money market rates eased and stayed within
the policy corridor, underscoring the effectiveness of the Bank’s liquidity
operations. Overall, the financial sector remained stable and resilient, as reflected
by key prudential indicators.

2.3.1 Monetary Developments
The pace of expansion in reserve money decelerated at end-March 2025 relative
to end-December 2024, owing to a contraction in currency-in-circulation (CIC) and
moderate growth in liabilities to the ODCs. Reserve money grew modestly by 2.61
per cent (10.44%, annualised) to ₦33.53 trillion at end-March 2025, compared
with 32.09 per cent expansion recorded at end-December 2024. The moderation
was driven largely by 8.06 per cent contraction in CIC, and the slower growth of
4.74 per cent in liabilities to ODCs. The reduced momentum in reserve money
reflects, in part, the lagged effects of the Bank’s tight policy stance, evidenced by
the contraction in currency outside depository corporations (CODCs).

Figure 23: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
₦ Trillion
Currency in Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)
Reserve Money
Summary

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Figure 24: Reserve Money Growth Over end-December

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The resultant decline in the broad money multiplier to 3.41 from 3.47 at endDecember 2024 constrained the expansion of the monetary base and contributed
to a moderation in the growth of broad money supply (M3), which rose by a
marginal 0.77 per cent to ₦114.22 trillion, compared with a 43.03 per cent growth
at end-December 2024. Similarly, broad money supply (M2) recorded a marginal
increase of 0.76 per cent to ₦114.20 trillion, while narrow money supply (M1)
contracted by 0.68 per cent to ₦38.55 trillion. The deceleration in monetary
aggregates—particularly the M1—reflects deliberate efforts by the monetary
authority to moderate aggregate demand and contain inflation pressure.
On the asset side, the modest expansion in broad money supply (M3) was driven
primarily by growth in net foreign assets (NFA), which contributed 11.66
percentage points to overall M3 growth. The contribution of NFA to the growth in
M3 offset the contractionary impact of net domestic assets (NDA) which exerted
a downward pull of 10.89 percentage points. Specifically, NFA grew by 41.34 per
cent, reflecting a 3.83 per cent rise in claims on non-residents, underpinned by
improved external sector position. Conversely, NDA contracted by 15.16 per cent,
owing, largely, to a 2.89 per cent decline in overall domestic claims. The
contraction in domestic claims stemmed from a 4.73 per cent reduction in net
claims on the central government and a 0.85 per cent decrease in claims on other
sectors. Driving the decline in claims on other sectors were a 10.60 per cent
contraction in credit to other financial corporations and a 1.61 per cent decrease
in credit to the private sector.
The contraction in net claims on the central government signalled the Bank’s
renewed focus to align monetary operations with its price stability objective.
Notably, while overall domestic credit flows continued to adjust in response to
prevailing monetary policy measures, the sustained growth in foreign assets

Mar. 24
Jun-24
Sept-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Per cent
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money

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underscored investor confidence in the economy and offered a critical buffer
against external shocks, thereby supporting overall macroeconomic resilience.

Table 10: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (%)

Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Contribution to
M3 growth
(Mar-25)
Net Foreign Assets

Claims on Non-residents

Liabilities to Non-residents

Net Domestic Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on Central
Government

Claims on Central Government

Liabilities to Central
Government

Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Other Financial
Corporations

Claims on State and Local
Government

Claims on Public Nonfinancial
Corporations

Claims on Private Sector

Total Monetary Assets (M3)

Currency Outside Depository
Corporations

Transferable Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than Shares

Total Monetary Liabilities(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: The numbers for March 2025 are provisional.

On the liabilities side, the moderation in M3 was primarily influenced by a 10.31
per cent decline in currency outside depository corporations (CODCs), which
exerted a 0.47 percentage point drag on broad money growth. In contrast,
transferable and other deposits grew moderately by 0.79 per cent and 1.15 per
cent, contributing 0.24 and 1.00 percentage points to M3, respectively. The
contraction in CODCs suggests a moderation in cash-based transactions, reflecting
changing payment behaviour and the growing adoption of electronic and digital
payment channels.

2.3.2 Sectoral Utilisation of Credit
Overall ODCs’ credit to the economy declined marginally by 0.20 per cent to
₦59.10 trillion, from ₦59.22 trillion in December 2024. The moderation reflects
the contractionary monetary policy stance of the Bank aimed at anchoring
inflation expectations. Credit to the agriculture sector, however, rose by 11.01 per
cent to ₦3.17 trillion, increasing its share of total credit from 4.82 per cent to 5.36
Sectoral Credit
Utilisation

Money Supply

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per cent. The increase in credit to the agriculture sector reflected t preparation
for wet season farming across the country.

Table 11: Sectoral Credit Allocation
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Relative to the position at end-December 2024, consumer credit outstanding
contracted by 15.11 per cent to ₦4.01 trillion. The contraction underscored the
moderate pace of credit expansion amid the Bank’s sustained efforts to rein in
inflation. Although retail loans rose significantly by 99.89 per cent to ₦1.80 trillion,
personal loans, which traditionally constitute a major share of household
borrowing, fell markedly by 42.12 per cent to ₦2.21 trillion, indicating reduced
household demand for credit due to higher interest rates.
Sectors
Credit Allocation (₦ Billion)
Share in Total (%)
Mar-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Mar-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Agriculture

Industry

of which
Manufacturing

Services

of which Finance,
Insurance & Capital
Market

Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL

Consumer
Credit

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Figure 25: Consumer Credit Outstanding

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3 Financial Developments

2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments
Fiscal operations and repayments of matured securities contributed to an increase
in average banking system liquidity in the review period relative to the preceding
quarter. The average banking system liquidity rose to ₦0.25 trillion, from ₦0.15
trillion in Q42024. The growth in the level of liquidity in the period under review
followed higher repayment of matured CBN bills, Federal Government (FGN)
Bonds, and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), as well as fiscal disbursements to the 3
tiers of Government. While these inflows temporarily boosted liquidity, the Bank’s
tight policy stance and other liquidity management measures ensured that
banking system liquidity remained at a tolerable level.

Figure 26: Average Banking System Liquidity (₦ Trillion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Mar. 24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
₦ Trillion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total
0.27
0.15
0.25
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Industry Liquidity
Condition

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Activities at both the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) and Standing Lending Facility
(SLF) windows increased during the review period, amid the tight monetary policy
environment. The value of transactions at the SDF and SLF rose by 12.44 per cent
and 27.10 per cent to ₦19.06 trillion and ₦49.55 trillion, respectively, compared
with the preceding quarter. The applicable rates on the SDF and SLF windows
remained unchanged at 26.50 and 32.50 per cent, respectively, while the penalty
on unreturned Intra-day Lending Facility (ILF) stood at 37.50 per cent.

Figure 27: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

In the review period, the Bank utilised Open Market Operations (OMO) to maintain
monetary stability. The total amount of CBN bills offered, subscribed, and allotted
was ₦5.08 trillion, ₦10.26 trillion, and ₦8.34 trillion (with tenors ranging from 88
to 365 days), compared with ₦2.80 trillion, ₦2.96 trillion, and ₦2.34 trillion,
respectively (with tenors ranging from 91 to 365 days). The bid rates stood at
24.43 (± 0.96) per cent, while the stop rates were 24.67 (±0.72) per cent, indicating
a relatively narrow spread. Repayments on maturing CBN bills amounted to ₦0.48
trillion, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of ₦7.86 trillion through this channel.

Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Standing Deposit Facility
Standing Lending Facility
OMO Operations

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Figure 28: Open Market Operations (₦ Trillion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Increased subscriptions for both the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Federal
Government of Nigeria (FGN) Bonds in Q12025 was underpinned by sustained
investor confidence, attractive yields and favourable macroeconomic prospects.
Total NTBs (91-, 182- and 364-day tenors) offered, subscribed and allotted
amounted to ₦5.12 trillion, ₦15.20 trillion, and ₦5.54 trillion, respectively,
compared with ₦2.77 trillion, ₦6.73 trillion, and ₦2.75 trillion in the preceding
quarter. The average bid rate in Q12025 was 22.50 (±5.50) per cent, identical to
the preceding quarter, although the stop rate increased slightly to 21.81 (±4.81)
per cent from 20.47 (±2.47) per cent in Q42024.

Figure 29: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Billion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

FGN Bonds of 5-, 7-, 9-, and 10-year tranches worth ₦1.10 trillion were offered,
representing a significant expansion, compared with ₦0.42 trillion (5- and 7-year
tenors) in the preceding quarter. Subscriptions and allotment rose to ₦2.41 trillion
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Offer
1.05
2.80
5.08
Subscription
17.55
2.96
10.26
Allotment
0.58
2.34
8.34
Repayment

Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Offer
2.32
2.77
5.12
Subscription
11.84
6.73
15.20
Allotment
5.95
2.75
5.54
Repayment


37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q12025
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and ₦1.78 trillion, respectively, from ₦1.04 trillion and ₦0.85 trillion in Q42024.
The average bid rate was 22.00 (± 7.00) per cent, while the average marginal rate
was 20.80 (±1.80) per cent, compared with 21.00(±3.00) and 21.38(± 0.63) per
cent, respectively, in the preceding quarter.
The higher bonds offer in the review period reflected government inclination
towards domestic borrowing to fund the 2025 budget. The rise in subscriptions
indicated rising investor confidence in government instruments,
stable
macroeconomic expectations, and domestic yields.

Figure 30: Primary Market Auctions of FGN Bonds (₦ Billion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Key money market rates were generally stable and well anchored within the policy
corridor. Reflecting the liquidity condition, the average Interbank call rate shed
2.94 percentage points (pp), Open Buy Back (OBB) rate (1.10 pp), Nigeria Interbank
Offered Rate (NIBOR) (1.32 pp), and NIBOR 90-day rate (0.61 pp) from the
preceding month. Consequently, the average Interbank call rate and OBB settled
at 28.09 and 30.67 per cent, respectively, while the NIBOR and NIBOR 90-day rates
settled at 30.77 and 27.47 per cent, respectively. NIBOR 30-day rate, however,
increased marginally by 0.07pp to close at 27.28 per cent. With the monetary
policy rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent and an asymmetric corridor of +500/-100 basis
points (bp), money market rates remained within the Bank’s desired policy
corridor during the review period.
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Offer
3.31
0.42
1.10
Subscription
2.39
1.04
2.41
Allotment

Interest Rate
Developments

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Figure 31: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The average maximum lending rate declined slightly by 0.19 pp to 30.16 per cent
in Q12025, while the prime lending rate increased significantly by 8.33 pp to 26.80
per cent over its level in the preceding quarter. The weighted average term
deposit (WAVTD) rate rose moderately by 0.56 pp to 10.23 per cent.
Consequently, the average spread between the WAVTD rate and maximum
lending rate narrowed to 19.93 pp, from 20.68 pp in Q42024.

Figure 32: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate.

2.3.3.2Capital Market Developments
The Nigerian capital market was bullish in Q12025 as activities in both the equities
and bonds segments improved, relative to the preceding quarter. The upward
momentum was underpinned by robust corporate earnings and sustained investor
confidence. This was supported by improved macroeconomic fundamentals,

Interbank Call Rate
Open-Buy-Back
NIBOR Call
NIBOR 30-Day
NIBOR 90-Day
MPR
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor

Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Per cent
Maximum Lending Rate
Prime Lending Rate
WAVTD
Spread
Market Capitalisation

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relative exchange rate stability, and increased optimism about the economy.
Consequently, aggregate market capitalisation rose by 5.43 per cent to ₦115.22
trillion in Q12025, from ₦109.29 trillion in Q42024.
Equities and debt components increased by 5.58 and 5.24 per cent to N66.27
trillion and ₦48.93 trillion from ₦62.76 trillion and ₦46.50 trillion, respectively, in
the preceding quarter. Conversely, the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) declined by
14.93 per cent to ₦24.83 billion from ₦29.19 billion in the preceding quarter. The
equities component sustained its dominance, constituting 57.51 per cent of the
aggregate market capitalisation, while debt and ETF components accounted for
42.47 and 0.02 per cent, respectively.
The All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 3.23 per cent to 105,660.64 index points,
from 102,350.25 index points in the preceding quarter. The rise in ASI portrayed
strong investor appetite for Nigerian equities, driven by bargain-hunting activities
for dividend pay-outs amid strong corporate earnings results for mid- and largecap stocks.

Figure 33: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Most of the capital market indices exhibited a bullish trend in Q12025, with
NGXLOTUSISLM and NGXAFRBVI topping the chart, while NGXOILGAS, and
NGXGROWTH were the major losers. The rise in most of the indices reflected
impressive sectoral performance and the demand for major large-cap stocks on
the Exchange.

Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Index Points
₦ Billion
Aggregate Market Cap (LHS)
All Share Index (RHS)
NGX All- Share
Index

40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q12025
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Figure 34: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Q12025 Sectoral Indices
Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

Table 12: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices
SECTORAL INDICES
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Change (%)
NGXLOTUSISLM
6,955.89
7,551.18
8.56
NGXAFRBVI
2,467.38
2,646.53
7.26
NGXBNK
1,084.52
1,159.99
6.96
NGXCG
2,814.39
3,009.51
6.93
NGXMERIGRW
6,490.69
6,930.25
6.77
NGXPENSION
4,521.13
4,785.90
5.86
NGXCNSMRGDS
1,731.67
1,815.85
4.86
NGXPREMIUM
9,719.75
10,171.85
4.65
NGXSOVBND
601.54
626.86
4.21
NGXPENBRD
1,826.89
1,890.00
3.45
NGX30
3,811.94
3,921.32
2.87
NGXMAINBOARD
4,988.79
5,068.04
1.59
NGXAFRHDYI
16,642.63
16,758.62
0.70
NGXASEM
1,583.71
1,587.89
0.26
NGXMERIVAL
10,375.32
10,274.99
-0.97
NGXINDUSTR
3,572.17
3,489.87
-2.30
NGXINS

698.54
-2.71
NGXGROWTH
7,762.86
7,401.79
-4.65
NGXOILGAS
2,712.06
2,458.69
-9.34
NGXCOMMDTY
-
1,003.58
-
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Trading activities on the Exchange rose significantly in the review quarter, as the
value of traded securities increased by 38.31 per cent to ₦1.11 trillion from ₦0.80
trillion in the preceding quarter. Similarly, the volume of traded securities
increased by 11.70 per cent to 38.87 billion shares from 34.80 billion shares in the
previous quarter. Also, total number of deals traded increased by 41.49 per cent
to 819,343 deals, compared with the level in the preceding quarter.

Per cent

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Figure 35: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

A total of 21 securities were listed on the Exchange, one suspension, one change
of name & trading symbol, and one lifting of suspension in the review quarter.
Among the 21 securities listed, seven were new, while 14 were supplementary.
Total listings were lower than the 23 in the preceding quarter, even as no security
delisted was recorded in the review quarter.

Table 13: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian Exchange
Limited in Q12025

Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Billion of Shares
₦ Billion
Value of traded securities (LHS)
Volume of traded securities (RHS)
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
19.30% FGN APR 2029
51,857,400
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
159,286,957
Supplementary listing
Lasaco Assurance Plc
9,250,000,000 ordinary shares of
50 Kobo each @ ₦1.20k per
share.
Supplementary listing
Guaranty Trust Holding
Company Plc
4,705,800,290 Ordinary Shares
of 50 Kobo each @ ₦44.50k
Supplementary listing
17.235% FGN JAN 2027
947,468,000.00, with 947,468
units for 2 years.
New listing
18.235% FGN JAN 2028
3,366,465,000.00, with
3,366,465 units for 3 years.
New listing
Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc
Placed on suspension
Placed on suspension
Zenith Bank Plc
Rights Issue of 5,232,748,964
Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each
@ ₦36.00 per Share.
Supplementary listing
Zenith Bank Plc
Offer for Subscription of
4,440,587,250 Arising from
Public Offer of 2,767,251,036
Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each
@ ₦36.50 per Share.
Supplementary listing
22.60% FGN JAN 2035
368,309,761,000, with
368,309,761 units for 10 years.
New listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
78,859,905 units
Supplementary listing

42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q12025
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Source: Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
Notes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not
available.

2.3.3.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
Despite the slight increase in the non-performing loans ratio (NPLs), the banking
sector remained stable and resilient in the review quarter. The industry’s capital
adequacy ratio (CAR) and liquidity ratio (LR) stood at 15.65 and 51.18 per cent,
higher than the preceding quarter by 0.45 and 2.12 percentage points,
respectively. These indicators were above their respective regulatory benchmarks
of 10.00 and 30.00 per cent. The robust solvency and liquidity buffers underscored
the banking sector's enhanced capacity to absorb adverse shocks, facilitate credit
intermediation, and exert a positive influence on the broader macroeconomic
trajectory. The NPLs ratio, however, rose marginally by 1.04pps to 5.54 per cent
from 4.50 per cent in the preceding quarter.
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
153,869,360 units
Supplementary listing
Fidelity Bank Plc
18,200,000,000 ordinary shares
of 50 Kobo each @ ₦9.75 per
share
Supplementary listing
17.799% FGN FEB 2027
1,117,197,000 units for 2 years
New listing
18.799% FGN FEB 2028
3,057,938,000 units for 3 years
New listing
Ellah Lakes Plc
1,104,386,890 Ordinary Shares
of 50 Kobo each at ₦2.8 Per
Share, arising from the
Conversion of Ellah Lakes Plc’s
₦3,092,283,294.81 Debt to
Equity.
Supplementary listing
FBN Holdings Plc
Change of Name from FBN
Holdings Plc (FBNH) to FIRST
HOLDCO PLC (FIRSTHOLDCO).
Change of name and
trading symbol
19.30% FGN APR 2029
305,361,903 units
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
605,027,191 units
Supplementary listing
Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria
Infrastructure Debt Fund
(NIDF)
222,826 Units of NIDF
Supplementary listing
Sterling Financial Holdings
Company Plc
Listing of 16,666,666,667
Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each
at ₦4.50 per Share Offered
through Private Placement.
Supplementary listing
Nigerian Exchange Group Plc
Listing of NGX30U5 and
NGXPENSIONU5 Futures
Contracts
New listing
Dangote Cement Plc
10-Year 23.50% Fixed Rate
Senior Unsecured Bonds Due

New listing
Mutual Benefits Assurance
Plc
Lifting of suspension
Lifting of suspension

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Figure 36: Key Financial Soundness Indicators (%)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


CAR
LR
NPL
Benchmark
Q4 2024
Q1 2025

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2.4
External Sector Developments
The performance of the external sector in Q12025 was shaped majorly by global
developments particularly trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as domestic
foreign exchange demand and inflation pressures. The overall balance of payments
recorded a deficit, in contrast to a surplus in the preceding quarter, driven by the
drawdown on external reserves to finance international obligations. The current
account posted a lower surplus, while the financial account recorded a net
borrowing position. At US$37.82 billion, the external reserves could cover 7.88
months of import for goods and services or 11.63 months for goods only. The
average exchange rate at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) was
₦1,521.56/US$, compared with ₦1,623.26/US$ in Q42024.

2.4.1 Current and Capital Account
The current and capital account recorded a lower surplus, driven by widened
deficits in the services and primary income accounts, coupled with decline in
remittances inflow. The surplus in the current and capital account fell marginally
to US$3.73 billion (6.98% of GDP), compared with US$3.80 billion (7.59% of GDP)
in the preceding quarter. The development reflected the widened deficits in the
services and primary income accounts and decline in remittance inflow.

Figure 37: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Merchandise export earnings grew in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to
increased receipts from both oil and non-oil export. Aggregate export earnings rose
by 9.79 per cent to US$13.91 billion, from US$12.67 billion in Q42024. A
breakdown showed that crude oil receipts increased to US$11.25 billion, from
US$10.63 billion in the preceding quarter, owing to higher average price of the
Bonny Light to US$77.52 per barrel from US$75.66 per barrel in the preceding
quarter. Similarly, receipts from non-oil export rose to US$2.66 billion from

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Export
Performance
Summary

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US$2.04 billion in the preceding quarter, driven by higher global commodity
prices, resulting in improved earnings particularly from the export of cocoa beans
and sesame seeds. Crude oil and gas exports continued to dominate merchandise
export, accounting for 80.88 per cent of total earnings, with non-oil export
accounting for the balance.

Merchandise imports bills declined in the review period, due to lower non-oil
import. Merchandise imports bills fell to US$9.75 billion, from US$10.05 billion in
Q42024. A disaggregation indicated that non-oil import, fell to US$6.77 billion
from US$7.37 billion in the preceding quarter, due majorly to decline in the import
of industrial products. Oil imports, however, increased to US$2.98 billion, from
US$2.68 billion in the preceding quarter. By share, import of non-oil products
continued to dominate merchandise import, accounting for 69.44 per cent, while
oil constituted the balance.
Analysis of import by sector indicated that the industrial sector, mainly raw
materials and machinery accounted for the largest share of imports, with 47.53
per cent, followed by oil sector (25.95%), food products (11.34%), manufactured
products (9.85%), transport (2.94%), minerals (1.22%), and agricultural products
(1.18%).

Figure 38: Import by Classification
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The deficit in the services account widened marginally, owing to lower receipts,
particularly in respect of financial services. The deficit in the services account
widened to US$3.69 billion, from US$3.48 billion in Q42024. Total payment for
services decreased by 2.32 per cent to US$4.64 billion, relative to the level in the
preceding quarter. A breakdown indicated that payments for transport services
Industrial sector ,
47.53%
Food
products ,
11.34%
Manufactured
products , 9.85%
Oil sector ,
25.95%
Minerals , 1.22%
Transport, 2.94%
Agriculture ,
1.18%
Merchandise
Import
Services

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increased by 0.12 per cent to US$1.65 billion from the level in the preceding
quarter, reflecting higher freight charges. Similarly, payments for travels increased
to US$1.27 billion (4.10%), telecommunications, computer & information services
to US$0.16 billion (45.45%), government goods & services to US$0.16 billion
(6.67%), and other business services to US$1.08 billion (10.20%), from their levels
in Q42024.
Conversely, payment for insurance and pension services, declined by 37.93 per
cent to US$0.18 billion in Q12025. Payments for financial services also fell to
US$0.08 billion, from US$0.28 billion in Q42024.
In terms of contributions, transport services constituted the largest share of
services payments at 35.49 per cent, followed by travel services (27.29%), other
business
services
(23.32%),
insurance
and
pension
services
(3.86%)
telecommunications, computer & information services (3.50%) and government
services (3.42%). Financial services accounted for 1.66 per cent, while other
categories of services accounted for the balance.

Figure 39: Share of Services Out-Payments (per cent)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from the export of services declined by 25.20 per cent to US$0.95 billion,
attributed largely to reduced inflow from financial services. A disaggregated
analysis indicated that earnings from financial services fell significantly by 77.27
per cent to US$0.10 billion. Similarly, receipts from telecommunications,
computer & information services declined by 20.13 per cent to US$0.04 billion
from its level in the preceding quarter. Conversely, receipts from transport and
travel services increased by 4.34 and 9.87 per cent to US$0.55 billion and US$0.07
billion, respectively, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter. Receipts from
insurance & pension services also rose by 10.51 per cent to US$0.04 billion.
The composition of services receipt showed that transport dominated at 58.07 per
cent, followed by government services (13.21%), financial (10.56%), travels
Transportation
35.49%
Travels
27.29%
Financial services
1.66%
Telecommunication
3.50%
Government goods
and services
3.42%
Insurance and pension
3.86%
Others
24.78%

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(7.36%), insurance & pension (4.56%), telecommunications (3.76%) and other
business services (2.48).

Figure 40: Share of Services Receipts
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The primary income account posted a higher deficit, following increased interest
payment on portfolio investments and higher dividend claims. The deficit in the
primary income account widened to US$2.02 billion, from US$1.78 billion in
Q42024. A disaggregation showed that the deficit in the investment income subaccount widened to US$2.08 billion, from US$1.86 billion in the preceding quarter,
due largely to higher interest payments on portfolio investment and increased
dividend claims on direct investment. The surplus in the compensation of
employees sub-account declined to US$0.06 billion from US$0.08 billion in the
preceding quarter.

Figure 41: Primary Income Balance
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Transportation, 58.07
Travels, 7.36
Other business
services, 2.48
Insurance and
pension, 4.56
Financial services,
10.56
Telecommunication,
3.76
Government goods and
services, 13.21

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025

US$ Billion
Primary Income

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The secondary income account recorded a lower surplus, due to significant
decline in the inflow of general government transfers. The surplus in the
secondary income account declined by 17.86 per cent to US$5.29 billion,
from US$6.44 billion in the preceding quarter. The development was driven
majorly by the significantly lower inflow of general government transfers
and a modest decline in remittances inflow. General government transfers
decreased substantially to US$0.47 billion from US$1.44 billion in the
preceding quarter, while inflow of remittances declined by 2.95 per cent to
US$4.93 billion from US$5.08 billion in Q42024.

Figure 42: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2 Financial Account
The financial account posted a net lending position, driven mainly by substantial
reduction in the country’s financial liabilities. The financial account recorded a net
acquisition of financial assets of US$7.58 billion, compared with US$7.82 billion in
Q42024, due to significant reduction in short term portfolio debt securities and
loan liabilities.
The economy recorded a net reduction in liabilities of US$9.05 billion, compared
with US$7.95 billion in the preceding quarter, due to reduction in portfolio
investment liabilities, particularly, short-term debt securities. A disaggregation
showed a reduction in portfolio investment liabilities worth US$5.03 billion,
against an inflow of US$5.61 billion in the preceding quarter. ‘Other investment’
liabilities also declined to US$4.32 billion, relative to US$13.89 billion in Q42024,
driven by repayment of short-term loan liabilities. Inflow of foreign direct
investment liabilities worth US$0.25 billion was recorded compared with US$0.31
billion in Q42024, due to lower inflow of equity and reinvested earnings.

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025

US$ Billion
Secondary income balance
Remittances
Government transfers
Financial Account
Developments
Secondary Income
Net Incurrence of
Liability

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A higher disposal of financial assets worth US$1.48 billion was recorded in
Q12025, compared with US$0.14 billion in the preceding quarter, due to a
depletion in external reserve assets in the review period. Direct investment assets
worth US$0.55 billion was also disposed, against an acquisition of US$0.26 billion
in the preceding quarter. Conversely, acquisition of portfolio investment assets
increased to US$0.48 billion from US$0.02 billion in Q42024. ‘Other investment’
assets recorded an acquisition of US$1.31 billion against a disposal of US$1.54
billion in the preceding quarter.

2.4.3 External Debt
Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-March 2025, stood at US$45.98 billion
(21.52% of GDP). A breakdown of external debt stock showed that the multilateral
loans (majorly from the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, and
African Development Bank Group) amounted to US$22.43 billion, accounting for
48.80 per cent of the total external debt stock. Commercial loans (Euro Bonds)
amounted to US$17.51 billion (38.08%), while US$6.03 billion (13.12%) was
bilateral loans.
External debt service payments at end-March 2025 stood at US$1.39 billion. A
breakdown showed that principal repayment totaling US$0.76 billion accounted
for 54.67 per cent of the debt service payments. Interest payments constituted
US$0.63 billion or 45.32 per cent of the total, while other payments accounted for
the balance. Further analysis showed that interest payments on commercial
borrowings, at US$0.43 billion, accounted for 68.25 per cent of the total, while
that on multilateral institutions borrowings was US$0.14 billion (22.22%). Interest
on other borrowings accounted for the balance.

2.4.4 International Investment Position
The international investment position posted a lower net financial liability of
US$60.41 billion. The stock of financial assets increased slightly to US$116.63
billion, from US$116.44 billion in the preceding quarter, driven primarily by
increase in other investment assets. The stock of direct investment asset increased
by 4.27 per cent to US$18.32 billion, while the stock of portfolio investment asset
rose by 11.26 per cent to US$4.84 billion relative to the levels in the preceding
quarter. ‘Other investments’ asset increased to US$55.47 billion from US$54.20
billion in the preceding quarter. Reserve assets declined to US$37.82 billion in the
review period, from US$40.19 billion.
The stock of financial liabilities fell to US$177.03 billion, from US$185.00 billion in
Q42024, driven largely by a 4.48 per cent decline in other investment liabilities to
US$69.63 billion. Similarly, portfolio investment liabilities fell to US$35.08 billion,
External Debt
International
Investment Position
Net Acquisition of
Asset

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from US$40.07 billion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, direct investment
liabilities rose by 0.33 per cent to US$72.18 billion.

2.4.5 External Reserves
The external reserves remained above the benchmark of 3 months of import cover
during the review period. The external reserves stood at US$37.82 billion at endMarch 2025, relative to US$40.19 billion at end-December 2024. The level of
reserves could cover 7.88 months of import for goods and services or 11.63
months for goods only.

Figure 43: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that the shares of the
CBN and the FGN stood at US$33.49 billion and US$4.33 billion, respectively, while
Federation accounted for the balance. Analysis by composition showed the
continued dominance of the US dollar at US$29.26 billion or 77.37 per cent of the
total. This was followed by Special Drawing Rights (US$4.20 billion or 11.10%),
Chinese yuan (US$3.31 billion or 8.74%), euro (US$0.76 billion or 2.00%), and the
British pound (US$0.30 billion or 0.78%). Other currencies accounted for the
balance.

2.4.6 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
The economy recorded a lower net foreign exchange inflow in the review period.
Net foreign exchange inflow stood at US$15.20 billion, compared with US$16.17
billion in the preceding quarter. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow increased by

Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods) - RHS
Months- RHS
International Reserves
Foreign Exchange
Flows through the
Economy

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4.16 per cent to US$28.97 billion, from US$27.81 billion in Q42024. Foreign
exchange outflow, at US$13.77 billion, rose by 18.33 per cent, relative to US$11.64
billion in the preceding quarter.
Foreign exchange inflow through the Bank decreased by 29.89 per cent to US$8.32
billion, from US$11.54 billion in the preceding quarter, while autonomous inflow
rose by 27.89 per cent to US$20.65 billion, from US$16.27 billion.
Outflows through the Bank and autonomous sources increased by 3.26 per cent
and 125.75 per cent to US$10.54 billion and US$3.23 billion, respectively, from
US$10.21 billion and US$1.43 billion in the preceding quarter.
Consequently, a net inflow of US$17.41 billion was recorded from autonomous
sources, compared with US$14.84 billion in the preceding quarter. A net outflow
of US$2.44 billion was recorded through the Bank, compared with a net inflow of
US$1.34 billion in Q42024.

Figure 44: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$
Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The average daily turnover at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM)
increased by 43.17 per cent to US$421.65 million, from US$294.51 million in
Q42024, reflecting increased trading activities in the market.

Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Inflow
23.00
27.81
28.97
Outflow
10.34
11.64
13.77
Netflow


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Figure 45: Turnover in the NFEM

Source: Financial Markets Dealers’ Quotation


2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar at the NFEM was
₦1,521.56/US$, compared with ₦1,623.26/US$ in Q42024. This represents a 6.68
per cent appreciation in the value of the naira during the review period, attributed
to increased foreign exchange supply to the market.


Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
US$ Million
Average Turnover
Average Exchange
Rate

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3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

3.1
Global Outlook
The global economy is expected to remain resilient in 2025, although vulnerabilities
remain in some countries. Global growth is forecast at 3.30 per cent in 2025 from
an estimated 3.20 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained consumer demand in
both AEs and EMDEs.
Growth in AEs is projected to rise to 1.90 per cent in 2025 from 1.70 per cent in
the preceding year, driven by stronger investment activity and robust
consumption, particularly in the U.S. and the Eurozone. Growth in EMDEs is,
however, expected to remain unchanged at 4.20 per cent, as strong expansions in
India and the Middle East is neutralised by the lacklustre performance in emerging
and developing Europe and China.
Global inflation is projected to ease to 4.20 per cent from 5.70 per cent in 2024.
The projected moderation and eventual convergence toward target levels is on
the back of cooling labour markets. Expected declines in energy prices, due,
mainly, to the U.S. administration’s push for increased oil production, and the
lingering effects of past tight monetary policies are projected to further reinforce
global disinflation.

3.2
Domestic Outlook
Nigeria’s economic growth is projected to accelerate in the medium term. The
outlook is supported by exchange rate stability, higher crude oil output, and the
crystallisation of the ongoing policy reforms.
Nigeria's inflation is expected to moderate further in Q12025. The decline is hinged
on the lagged effect of the Bank’s restrictive policy stance, improved FX market
stability, base effects, and enhanced security in key agricultural regions. However,
several factors could pose risks to inflation outlook, these include exchange rate
depreciation, expansionary money supply, higher PMS and electricity prices,
increased import tariffs, and worsening insecurity in food-producing areas.
The near to medium-term fiscal outlook remains optimistic, underpinned by
ongoing reforms aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit and enhancing revenue
collection through a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. However, persistent concerns stem
from the volatility in global crude oil prices, exacerbated by ongoing trade tensions
and challenges in meeting international export targets, which could affect public
financing needs.
The performance of the external sector is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven
by a combination of factors including sustained trade surplus, largely supported

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by strong export performance and continued increase in diaspora remittances. In
addition, anticipated increase in domestic crude oil and gas production, are
expected to further boost export receipts. Nonetheless, these optimistic
projections may be tempered by the escalating global trade frictions, which pose
a potential downside risk to the external sector outlook.