1 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


Fourth Quarter

2 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report presents economic
developments in Nigeria, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which is
published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the Nigerian
economy, as well as, on global issues that impact the domestic economy. In
addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors, and the
public. Free download of the Report, including current and past issues are
available from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All inquiries concerning the
Report should be directed to the Director, Research Department, Central Bank of
Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.


3 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Content


4 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Tables
Table 2: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major Agricultural
Table 11: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (per cent)
Table 15: Listings and De-listings on the Nigerian Exchange Limited in

Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Figure 3: Inflation Rates in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries (per
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) for Q4 202421

5 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to Food
Figure 26: Developments in Reserve Money (₦ Trillion) and Money
Figure 35: Trend in Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates .... 56
Figure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index 58
Figure 37: Percentage Contribution of Equities, Bonds, and ETFs Market
Figure 38: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX ... 61
Figure 44: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow ... 71
Figure 46: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$


6 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
SUMMARY
Global economic activity continued to expand in Q42024, with the Global
Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) steady at 52.43 index points, on
account of a robust services sector performance. Analysis of global inflation
developments indicated an uptrend in Advanced Economies (AEs), due to rising
service costs, and a decline in many Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
(EMDEs), aided by lower energy prices. Monetary policy normalisation, however,
continued in several economies amid country-specific inflation expectations.
Financial markets exhibited regional variations, as uncertainties surrounding the
US trade policies and interest rate expectations bolstered bond yields across both
AEs and EMDEs. Crude oil prices declined due to supply concerns waned and
increased production by OPEC and its allies were expected in 2025. The average
spot price of Nigeria's reference crude, Bonny Light, fell by 7.99 per cent to
US$75.66 per barrel.

The domestic economy-maintained growth momentum, as GDP expanded by 3.84
per cent, underpinned by the robust performance of the non-oil sector, particularly
the financial and insurance subsector, supported by modest outturn in the oil
sector. Domestic crude oil production significantly improved due to enhanced
security measures at key production terminals. Average crude oil output increased
by 7.52 per cent to 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.33 mbpd in Q3 2024.
Amid these gains, inflation pressures remained, as both food and non-food
components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose. Headline inflation increased to
34.80 per cent (year-on-year) from 32.70 per cent in Q32024, and core inflation to
29.28 per cent from 27.43 per cent, due to rising inflation expectations, high energy
costs, and elevated manufacturing input expenses primarily drove the inflationary
uptick. Food inflation rose to 39.84 per cent from 37.77 per cent, as rising price of
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) impacted transportation costs.
The fiscal operations improved during the review period, driven by increased
revenue from oil sources. Federally collected revenue rose by 5.31 per cent
compared to the previous quarter, though it remained 19.67 per cent below the
benchmark. Similarly, the Federal Government of Nigeria's (FGN) retained revenue
grew by 10.40 per cent quarter-on-quarter but fell short of the target by 48.57 per
cent. Aggregate government expenditure increased by 2.22 per cent relative to
Q32024 but was 22.09 per cent below the quarterly target. Consequently, the fiscal
deficit narrowed by 3.61 per cent compared to Q32024 but widened by 34.44 per
cent relative to the proportionate quarterly target. Domestic total public debt
stood at ₦142.32 trillion, representing 51.29 per cent of GDP, which remains within
the 70.00 per cent threshold for Market-Access Countries.
The financial sector remained resilient amid monetary expansion and fluctuating
liquidity conditions. Broad money supply (M3) grew by 42.76 per cent to ₦113.14
trillion, driven by a rise in net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets (NDA).
However, liquidity conditions in the banking system led to a slight uptick in shortterm interest rates. Robustness analysis indicated that the banking industry
remained strong, as financial soundness indicators were within regulatory

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
thresholds, reinforcing confidence in the sector. This stability and favourable
market conditions bolstered investor sentiment and fuelled a strong performance
across various capital market segments during the review period.

The external sector strengthened in Q42024, with the overall balance of payments
recording a surplus, reflecting improved economic conditions. However, the
current account surplus narrowed due to a lower trade surplus and higher deficit
in primary income account. The financial account recorded a net acquisition of
financial assets, driven largely by a significant reduction in loan liabilities. External
reserves stood at US$40.19 billion, sufficient to cover 8.15 months of imports for
goods and services or 12.00 months for goods only. Average exchange rate at the
Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) depreciated to ₦1,623.26/US$ from
₦1,588.64/US$ in Q32024.

Outlook of the domestic economy suggests a faster growth in the medium term,
buoyed by anticipated stability in the naira, improved crude oil production, and the
consolidation of ongoing policy reforms. Inflation is expected to moderate from Q1
2025, supported by the lagged effect of the Bank's restrictive policy stance,
exchange rate stability, and improved security in food-producing areas, downside
risks persist. These include potential exchange rate depreciation, increased money
supply, rising PMS prices, electricity and import tariff hikes, and heightened
insecurity in agricultural regions.


8 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity was robust in Q42024 as the PMI
remained within the expansion region. Inflation inched up in the
Advanced Economies (AEs) on account of higher cost of
services but moderated across most Emerging Markets and
Developing Economies (EMDEs), largely driven by lower energy
prices. Amid shifting inflation expectations, monetary policy
normalisation continued in most countries. Activities in the
equity markets revealed regional divergences, on the heel of
varied expectations and uncertainties about US trade policy.
The global bonds market rallied as the market anticipated fewer
rate cuts by major central banks.

1.1
Global Economic Activity
The expansion in global economic activity was sustained, as
the PMI remained unchanged from its level in Q32024. The pace
of global economic activity, as measured by the PMI, remained
steady at 52.43 index points in Q42024, reflecting the sustained
expansion in the services sector. The services PMI at 53.33 index
points in Q42024, was bolstered by growth in output, new orders,
employment, and exports. The manufacturing sector PMI, though
still within the contraction region, improved to 49.67 index points from
49.37 index points, owing to an uptick of manufacturing activities in
China, the US, and the Euro area.


Global
Economic
Activity
Summary

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 1: Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q42023
Q32024
Q42024
Composite (Output)
50.47
52.43
52.43
Employment Level
50.33
50.40
50.03
New Business Orders
50.03
51.67
52.13
New Export Business Orders
48.27
48.97
48.93
Future Output
61.73
61.27
62.20
Input Prices
56.10
56.63
55.97
Output Prices
53.33
52.47
52.17


Manufacturing
49.03
49.37
49.67
Services (Business Activity)
50.87
53.33
53.33
New Business
50.60
52.83
53.10
New Export Business
49.60
50.93
50.80
Future Activity
62.47
61.87
62.97
Employment
50.87
50.70
50.37
Outstanding Business
48.77
49.60
50.07
Input Prices
59.40
57.40
56.77
Prices Charged
54.03
52.87
52.33
Source: JP Morgan

The level of economic activity in AEs varied with countryspecific factors. In the US and Spain, the PMI strengthened to
54.80 and 55.07 index points, respectively, from 54.30 and 54.40
index points in Q32024, on account of the growths in the service
sector and employment. Economic activity in Canada expanded to
50.40 index points in Q42024 from 47.30 index points, reflecting
increased output and new orders in the manufacturing sector. With
PMI at 50.90 (from 53.07) and 50.07 (from 52.47) index points in
Q42024, the pace of expansion slowed in the UK and Japan,
respectively, due to slower growth in the manufacturing sector and
subdued demand in certain industries.
Economic
activity in
Advanced
Economies

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Economic activities in France and Italy, however, contracted in
Q42024, as their PMI fell to 47.17 and 49.47 index points,
respectively, from 50.27 index points apiece, in the previous quarter.
The contraction in France was propelled by a decline in new orders,
following fall in demand from export markets, decline in employment,
and contraction in the service sector, as well as political and
geopolitical tensions. Declines in the manufacturing sector, cost
pressures, and weaker new orders were responsible for the
deceleration in Italy. The PMI contracted further to 47.93 index points
from 48.33 index points in Q32024, in Germany, as cost pressures
from energy and wages weakened the manufacturing sector.
Figure 1: PMIs in Selected Advanced Economies
Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites

Performance of economic activity in EMDEs reflected
idiosyncratic variations within the group. In China, PMI rose to
51.87 index points from 50.90 index points in the preceding quarter,
due to the increases in services and manufacturing activities. The
PMI also strengthened in South Africa and Russia to 50.47 and 51.53
index points, respectively, from 50.27 and 51.13 index points in the
preceding quarter. The expansion in South Africa was attributed to

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Index points
Q4 2023
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
50-point Threshold
Economic
activity in
EMDEs

11 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
sustained growth in new orders, bolstered by higher demand and
improved market confidence. In Russia, the expansion reflected the
growth in the new orders, manufacturing, and services sectors and
increased military production following the invasion of Ukraine. In
Indonesia, economic activity recovered from a contraction of 49.13
index points in Q32024 to 50.00 index points in Q42024, driven by
increase in new orders and rising demand.
The PMI for India and Brazil indicated that economic activities
slowed to 58.97 and 53.63 index points, respectively, from 59.90 and
54.70 index points in Q32024. The deceleration in India was
attributed majorly to contraction in the manufacturing sector, while
slower expansions in the services and manufacturing sectors due to
rising costs of inputs, led to the slowdown in Brazil.
Conversely, the PMIs in Mexico and Turkey remained in the
contraction region, albeit improving to 49.37 and 47.73 index points,
respectively, from 48.47 and 46.43 index points in the preceding
quarter, owing to easing of cost pressures in both countries.
Additionally, a rise in purchasing activities supported the
improvement in Mexico’s performance, while it was buoyed by a
renewed increase in employment and lower input prices in Turkey.

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites
Note: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI

1.2
Global Inflation
Inflation rose in AEs, on account of higher cost of services, but
was moderated in most EMDEs by declining energy prices.
Inflation in the US increased to 2.90 per cent from 2.40 per cent in
Q32024, owing to base effects particularly for energy and food
prices. In the UK and Germany, inflation rose to 2.50 and 2.60 per
cent, respectively, from 1.70 and 1.60 per cent, driven by higher
prices of food and services. Upward adjustment of energy price caps
and increased housing costs further reinforced inflation in the UK.
Consumer prices rose faster in Japan to 3.60 per cent from 2.50 per
cent in the preceding quarter, owing to the lag effect of the removal
of energy subsidy, and increase in the prices of food, housing,
furniture, clothing, and other services. The rise in prices of services,
energy, food, and tobacco contributed to faster price increases in
both France and Italy, as inflation in both countries reached 1.30 per
cent, apiece, from 1.10 and 0.70 per cent, respectively. Inflation also
rose in Canada and Spain to 1.80 and 2.80 per cent, respectively,

CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q4 2023
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
50-point Threshold
Global
Inflation

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
from 1.60 and 1.50 per cent in the preceding quarter, driven,
primarily, by higher energy costs.
Figure 3: Inflation Rates in Selected Advanced Economies (per
cent)
Source: Trading Economics and Staff Computations

Inflation pressures moderated in most EMDEs but elevated in a
few countries. Inflation eased to 1.57 per cent in Indonesia, from
1.84 per cent in the preceding quarter due to decelerated prices of
food, clothing, health, transport, and communication. Turkey
recorded a further decline in inflation to 44.38 per cent, from 49.38
per cent in Q32024, underpinned by a moderation in prices of food,
water, beverages, housing, and tobacco, as well as energy costs. In
Mexico, inflation moderated to 4.21 per cent, from 4.58 per cent,
owing to decline in the prices of housing and utilities, as well as food
and non-alcoholic beverages. Inflation also declined in South Africa
to 3.00 per cent from 3.80 per cent, due to a slowdown in energy and
food prices, beverages, and services. In China and India, inflation
moderated to 0.10 and 5.22 per cent, respectively, from 0.40 and
5.49 per cent in Q32024 caused by a reduction in food prices in both

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY FRANCE
JAPAN
CANADA
ITALY
SPAIN
Q4 2023
Q3 2024
Q4 2024

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
countries including a slowdown in housing costs in China, and
energy costs in India.
Inflation, however, increased in Russia and Brazil to 9.50 and 4.83
per cent, respectively, from 5.08 and 4.23 per cent in the preceding
quarter. The higher inflation in Russia was attributed, primarily, to
base effects, labour force shortages (amid military call-ups),
increased deficit spending, rising food prices, higher service costs,
and rising gasoline prices. In Brazil, the rise in inflation was driven
by increased consumer and government spending.
Figure 4: Inflation Rates in Selected EMDEs (per cent)
Source: Trading Economics and Staff Computations

1.3
Global Financial Markets
The performance of financial markets in the review quarter
showed divergences across AEs and EMDEs, buoyed by
uncertainties about US trade policy, growth concerns, and
interest rate expectations. Majority of stocks in AEs were bullish in
Q42024 due to gains in communication services, information
technology & consumer discretionary sectors, improved corporate
earnings, and resilient economic indicators. Consequently, the
Japanese TOPIX and NIKKEI indices rebounded by 5.25 and 5.21

Q4 2023
Q3 2024
Q4 2024

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
per cent, respectively, reflecting a recovery from the bearish run in
the preceding quarter. The performance was bolstered by
developments in the US, particularly the currency market, as a
weaker yen supported the earnings outlook for large-cap exporters
that drove the Japanese equities market.
The German DAX and Italian FTSE MIB appreciated by 3.02 and
0.18 per cent, respectively, as investors took positions in companies
with high cashflow yield. The US equities recorded diverse
outcomes, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained 2.07 and 0.51 per
cent, respectively, while the NASDAQ 100 fell by 3.69 per cent. The
outcomes of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were driven by a strong
consumer spending, increased growth of AI technologies, robust
corporate earnings, and optimism around potential interest rate
stabilisation, while the bearish run in NASDAQ 100 was due to selloff.
In the UK, however, equities were bearish following a rise in the longterm bond yields and growing concerns about the UK macroeconomic outlook. The FTSE 100 fell by 0.78 per cent, as economic
uncertainty, inflation considerations, Brexit-related challenges, and
the Bank of England's monetary policy inclination, spurred investors
weariness. Similarly, the French CAC 40 and EURO STOXX fell by
3.97 and 2.09 per cent, respectively, due to persistent inflation
concerns, restrictive monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bearish runs dominated EMDE’s equities in Q42024, impacted by
global growth concerns, tighter monetary policy, and a strong US
dollar. Brazilian shares were the weakest in the EMDEs region, as
the BOVESPA depreciated by 8.75 per cent, weighed by concerns
over the country's fiscal outlook. Indian BSE SENSEX and Mexican
MEXBOL declined by 7.31 and 5.65 per cent, respectively,
occasioned by investor uncertainties around US trade policies.

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
In South Africa, the JALSH fell by 2.83 per cent following increased
bond yields and a stronger US dollar. The Chinese SZI depreciated
by 1.09 per cent, driven by weaker growth, and investor pessimism
about the potential impact of US trade policies on Chinese exports.
The Russian MOEX, however, rebounded by 0.89 per cent, as
anticipated interest rate cut and a strengthening ruble lifted investor
sentiment, and rising oil prices bolstered the performance of the
energy stocks.
Figure 5: Key Global Stock

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

Bond yields rose in both AEs and EMDEs, as markets
anticipated monetary policy normalisation by major central
banks. Within the AEs, the 10-year bond yield rose in the UK (4.57%
from 4.01%) and the Euro area (2.36% from 2.13%), as wage growth
and concerns over elevated inflation dampened the possibility of
further interest rate cuts. Similar trajectories were observed in the
US and Canada, where the 10-year bond yield grew to 4.58 and 3.23
per cent, respectively, from 3.79 and 2.95 per cent, reflecting
investor expectation of pro-business policies under the incoming
Trump administration. In Japan and Italy, the 10-year bond yield rose

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q4 2024
Q3 2024

17 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
to 1.09 and 3.53 per cent, respectively, from 0.86 and 3.47 per cent.
The development in these countries was attributed to the market
expectation of interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), positive
growth outlook, and improved export competitiveness.
Among EMDEs, Turkey recorded a rise in 10-year bond yield to
27.19 from 26.63 per cent, in the preceding quarter, amid elevated
inflation. Bond yield increased in Mexico (10.42% from 9.35%),
Indonesia (7.02% from 6.46%) and India (6.76% from 6.75%),
supported by robust demand from local and foreign investors in the
wake of further moderation in inflation in these countries. In South
Africa, the yield rose to 9.05 per cent from 8.85 per cent, reflecting
the global trends of rising yields. The 10-year bond yield in Russia,
however, fell to 14.16 per cent from 14.30 per cent, due to increased
budget spending to finance the war and economic stabilisation
efforts amid sanctions.
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected
Countries (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon


USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advance Economies
Emerging Market and
Developing Economies
Q4 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2023

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
1.4 Global Commodity Market
World crude oil demand slightly exceeded supply in Q42024,
driven by increased economic activities in both OECD and nonOECD countries. Global crude oil demand, including natural gas
liquids (NGLs), increased by 0.42 per cent to 103.40 million barrels
per day (mbpd), from 102.97 mbpd in Q32024. The growth was
driven by increased demand in both non-OECD countries
(particularly India, Japan, and China) and OECD countries (notably
the US and Canada). The higher demand was occasioned by
stronger industrial activity and manufacturing output, particularly in
Asia, leading to higher energy consumption. Global crude oil demand
was reinforced by a build-up of strategic petroleum reserves in some
countries, in response to market uncertainties. Oil demand by OECD
countries grew by 0.32 per cent to 46.29 mbpd, from 46.14 mbpd in
Q32024; and by 0.49 per cent to 57.11 mbpd, from 56.83 mbpd in
non-OECD countries.
Global crude oil supply, including NGLs, rose by 0.52 per cent to
103.14 mbpd, driven by higher production in both OPEC and nonOPEC countries. Non-OPEC supply grew by 0.41 per cent to 70.78
mbpd, from 70.49 mbpd, due to increased output in Canada and the
US. Crude supply by OPEC countries rose by 0.75 per cent to 32.36
mbpd, from 32.12 mbpd, following higher production in Libya, Iran,
Gabon, and Nigeria.
Global Crude Oil
Supply and
Demand

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 7: Total Global Crude Supply and Demand
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil spot prices decreased, driven mainly by easing
concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict
and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 by OPEC and its
allies. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, Bonny
Light, fell by 7.99 per cent to US$75.66 per barrel (pb). Similar
downward trends were observed in the prices of Brent (US$75.80
pb), Fourcade’s (US$77.42 pb), West Texas Intermediate (US$71.59
pb), and the OPEC Reference Basket (US$73.52 pb).


Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
mbpd
...
World Supply
World Demand
Crude Oil
Prices

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 8: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The average spot prices of precious metals rose, driven,
primarily, by expectations of monetary policy normalisation,
increased gold purchase by central banks, and continued
geopolitical tensions. At US$2,660.86 per ounce, the average spot
price of gold rose by 7.46 per cent compared with US$2,476.23 per
ounce in Q32024, while the price of silver increased by 6.24 per cent
to US$31.32 per ounce from US$29.48 per ounce. Platinum and
palladium also recorded price gains of 0.43 per cent and 4.32 per
cent, respectively, to US$964.05 per ounce and US$1,007.99 per
ounce, driven, primarily, by expectations of continued normalisation
of monetary policy, which increased investor demand by lowering the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Additionally,
geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases further spurred
the upward momentum in the prices of precious metals.

Q1 2 0 2 2
Q2 2 0 2 2
Q3 2 0 2 2
Q4 2 0 2 2
Q1 2 0 2 3
Q2 2 0 2 3
Q3 2 0 2 3
Q4 2 0 2 3
Q1 2 0 2 4
Q2 2 0 2 4
Q3 2 0 2 4
Q4 2 0 2 4
Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket
Other Mineral
Commodities

21 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) for Q4

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

Prices of most agricultural commodities rose during the review
period, as weather-related challenges led to supply constraints.
The all-commodity price index rose by 6.10 per cent to 153.15 index
points, from the 144.34 index points in the preceding quarter,
following the 22.19 and 21.40 per cent increases in the prices of palm
oil and cocoa, respectively. Increases were also recorded in the
prices of rubber (12.11%), soya beans (2.06%), and coffee (2.01%),
due largely to weather-related challenges that affected production in
key producing countries. The prices of groundnut and wheat,
however, fell by 8.32 and 0.26 per cent, respectively, as ample
supply outpaced the demand for those commodities.


Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices

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ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 2: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major
Agricultural Export Commodities (US$; Jan. 2010=100)
COMMODITY
Q42023
Q32024
Q42024
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee


2.01
Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet

1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
Policy normalisation continued during the review period as
inflationary risks subsided in most countries. The US Fed cut the
fund rates by 50.00 basis points from 4.75-5.00 per cent in the
preceding quarter to 4.25-4.50 per cent, as inflation moved towards
the target while labour market remained robust. Price deceleration,
sluggish demand, and fragile labour market conditions underpinned
the 25.00 basis points rate cut to 4.75 per cent by the Bank of
England. In Canada and the Euro area, the central banks eased
rates by 100.00 and 50.00 basis points to 3.25 and 3.15 per cent,
respectively, on account of a more favourable inflation outlook. The
Bank of Japan, however, maintained its rate at 0.25 per cent, as it
continued to assess a variety of risks, particularly those emanating
from the 2025 wage outlook and US economic policies under the
incoming administration.
Most emerging economies also cut policy rates as inflation pressure
moderated. Benchmark interest rate was lowered by 25.00 basis
points apiece in South Africa (to 7.75%), Indonesia (5.75%), Mexico
(10.00%), and China (3.10%) to bolster economic recovery, while in

23 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Turkey the rate was reduced by 500.00 basis points to 45.00 per
cent.
In contrast, Russia and Brazil hiked the policy rate by 200.00 and
150.00 basis points, to 21.00 and 12.25 per cent, respectively, as the
countries struggle to bring down inflation to target levels in the face
of adverse external and internal factors, while the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) kept its repo rate at 6.50 per cent despite a slowdown in
economic growth.
Table 3: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
US

Canada

Euro Area

United Kingdom

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics


24 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.0 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2.1
Real Sector Developments
The domestic economy expanded by 3.84 per cent to ₦22.61
trillion in Q42024, driven mainly by the improved performance
of the non-oil sector, particularly the financial & insurance
subsector. All real sector economic activities experienced broadbased growth in the review period, except for the electricity, gas,
steam & air conditioning subsector, which declined by 5.05 per cent,
mainly due to increased tariffs, grid maintenance and the increasing
adoption of alternative energy sources.
In the oil sector, a slower growth of 1.48 per cent (year-on-year) was
recorded, compared with 5.17 per cent in the preceding quarter,
contributing 0.07 percentage point to overall growth during the review
period. The slowdown in the sector was attributable to the decline in
the price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude to US$75.66 pb from
US$82.23 pb in Q32024. However, the increase in crude oil
production to 1.43 mbpd from 1.33 mbpd in the preceding quarter,
boosted growth in the sector.
The non-oil sector expanded at a faster pace, growing by 3.96 per
cent, relative to 3.37 per cent in the preceding quarter, contributing
3.77 percentage points to total growth. This expansion was driven,
primarily, by activities in the financial and insurance, information and
communication, transportation and storage, crop production, and
trade subsectors.

Domestic
Output

25 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 10: Year-on-Year GDP Growth Rate (per cent)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
All the sectors (agriculture, industry and services) grew in
Q42024. The services sector grew by 5.37 per cent, compared with
5.19 per cent in Q32024, and remained the dominant sector,
accounting for 57.38 per cent of total GDP.
Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP

Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022
Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP

Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022 Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Per cent
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

26 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Within the services sector, financial & insurance subsector grew by
27.78 per cent, compared with 30.83 per cent in the preceding
quarter, and contributed 1.38 per cent to the total GDP growth for the
review period. This performance was boosted by the continuous
gains from the recapitalisation exercise initiated by the Bank early in
the year. Other measures implemented to stabilise the economy,
including tightening monetary policy and the introduction of electronic
foreign exchange matching system (EFEMS), also contributed to the
expansion in the subsector. Rising investments in digital
infrastructure and strengthening fintech innovations underlaid the
5.90 per cent growth in the information & communications subsector
(contributing 1.03 percentage points to GDP growth). The
developments in the ICT subsector supported the 1.19 per cent
growth in the trade subsector, and the 0.19 percentage point
contribution to overall growth. The transport & storage subsector also
grew by 18.61 per cent, compared with 12.15 per cent in the
preceding quarters of 2024, driven by increased economic activities
and sustained investments in transport infrastructure.
The agriculture sector grew by 1.76 per cent, compared with 1.14 per
cent in the preceding quarter, driven, mainly, by favourable weather
conditions and harvests of major food staples, particularly, grains.
Within the sector, the growth rate of the crop production subsector
rose to per cent from 1.18 per cent in Q32024. Growths were also
recorded in the forestry (2.02% from 2.23%), livestock (0.04% from
1.03%) and fishing (0.09% from negative 1.91%) subsectors.
The industry sector maintained a positive trajectory, growing by 2.00
per cent, compared with 2.18 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
outcome in Q42024 was driven, mainly, by the oil & gas subsector,
following sustained efforts by the government to boost production
through improved security of oil infrastructure in the producing region.
Activity in the subsector was enhanced by the operationalisation of

27 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
the Dangote refinery and the resumption of the Port-Harcourt
refinery. The industry sector, less oil & gas subsector, also grew by
0.52 per cent compared with 0.87 per cent in the preceding quarter.
In the mining & quarrying subsector, a milder growth of 2.23 per cent
was recorded vis-à-vis the 3.27 per cent growth realised in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, growths were recorded in the water,
sewage & waste management (8.95%), construction (2.95%) and
manufacturing (1.79%) subsectors. However, the electricity, gas,
steam & air conditioner subsector, contracted sharply by 5.04 per
cent compared with an expansion of 3.23 per cent in the preceding
quarter. Increased activity in the industry sector was on account of
the improvement in mining and manufacturing subsectors. The rise
in mining was underpinned by enhanced crude oil & gas production
from major streams and terminals, while the improvement in the
manufacturing subsector was due to rising operational efficiency,
despite inflation pressures. The index of industrial production (IIP),
grew, albeit at slower pace, by 1.76 per cent compared with 2.01 per
cent in the preceding quarter, due to increased activities in
manufacturing and mining subsectors.
Table 4: Index of Industrial Production
Period
IIP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q42023
91.72
3.78
-1.48
Q12024
105.17
3.31
14.66
Q22024
95.71
4.15
-8.99
Q32024
94.97
2.01
-0.77
Q42024
93.33
1.76
-1.73
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production.

The estimated IIP, at 93.33 index points declined persistently
throughout 2024, having reached 105.17 index points in Q12024.
The observed trend was attributed to decline in mining and quarrying
Industrial
Production

28 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
activities notwithstanding the increase in crude oil output for the
period. On a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, the IIP also contracted
further to 1.73 per cent from 0.77 per cent in Q32024.
The index of manufacturing production (IMANP) rose by 1.79 per
cent (y-o-y), comapred with the growth rate of 0.90 per cent in
Q32024, reflecting firms’ resilience in product diversification and
local sourcing of raw materials. Shifting consumer preference due to
high prices of imported material further contributed to the
performance of the sector. The index, also increased by 5.92 per
cent (q-o-q), comapred with the rate of 5.37 per cent in the preceding
quarter.
Table 5: Index of Manufacturing Production
Period
IMANP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q42023
192.69
1.36
5.01
Q12024
208.38
1.50
8.14
Q22024
175.73
1.29
-15.67
Q32024
185.16
0.90
5.37
Q42024
196.13
1.79
5.92
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMANP refers to index of manufacturing production.

Thus, the average manufacturing capacity utilisation rose by 1.20
percentage points to 61.90 per cent from 60.70 per cent in the
preceding quarter.
The estimated index of mining production (IMP), , increased by 2.22
per cent on a y-o-y basis compared with the growth of 3.22 per cent
in Q32024. The development was due to improved security
measures around key streams and terminals such as Bonny, Qua
Iboe, Forcados, Bonga, among others.
Capacity
Utilisation
Manufacturing

29 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 6: Index of Mining Production
Period
IMP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q4 2023
44.52
8.06
-14.55
Q12024
60.54
6.21
35.98
Q22024
53.44
7.74
-11.73
Q32024
53.78
3.22
0.64
Q42024
45.51
2.22
-15.38
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMINP refers to the index of mining production.

Of the 22 subsectors in the economy, 21 subsectors grew, while 1
subsector (electricity, gas, steam & air conditioner) contracted in
Q42024. The estimated index of electricity production fell by 1.64 per
cent on a y-o-y basis, compared with a rise of 5.55 per cent in
Q32024. On a q-o-q basis, however, the index increased by 22.50
per cent compared with a decline of 49.46 per cent in the previous
quarter. The improvement in the electricity subsector was due to
enhanced gas supply to thermal stations and continuous
implementation of the siemens power project, leading to
improvement in generation, transmission and distribution networks.
Thus, the average estimated electricity generation rose by 2.34 per
cent to 4,206.50 MW/h from 4,110.47 MW/h in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the average estimated electricity consumption at 4,105.66
increased by 2.63 per cent from 4,000.24 MW/h in Q32024.
Table 7: Index of Electricity Production
Period
IEP
Q-on-Q Change
Y-on-Y Change
Q42023
261.47
31.46
6.46
Q12024
141.07
-46.05
1.20
Q22024
415.40
194.46
6.79
Q32024
209.93
-49.46
5.55
Q42024
257.17
22.50
-1.64
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production.
Electricity
Generation /
Consumption

30 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 12: Subsectoral Growth and Contribution to GDP (%)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.2 Inflation
Inflation remained elevated in Q42024, as both food and nonfood components of the CPI basket increased. Headline inflation
rose to 34.80, on y-o-y basis from 32.70 per cent in the preceding
quarter, due to higher energy costs and exchange rate passthrough.
Other factors such as hoarding, insecurity and infrastructure
challenges contributed to the continued uptick in headline inflation.

(-5.04%) Electricity,Gas,Steam & Air conditioner
(0.99%) Other Services
(4.08%) Accomadation and Food Services
(2.06%) Education
(2.23%) Public Administration
(0.86%) Real Estate
(1.62%) Professional, Scientific & Technical Serv.
(2.95%) Construction
(2.23%) Mining and Quarrying
(1.79%) Manufacturing
(1.19%) Trade
(18.61%) Transportation and Storage
(1.90%) Crop Production
(5.90%) Information and Communication
(27.78%) Financial and Insurance
Headline
Inflation


31 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 13: Headline, Food and Core Inflation (year-on-year)

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Inflation remained broadly distributed across the components of the
CPI basket during the review period, as analytical evidence indicated
an increase in its pervasiveness. Specifically, 74.62 per cent of items
in the CPI basket exceeded the historical average of 14.60 per cent
(2010-2023), compared to 70.14 per cent in the preceding quarter1.
Figure 14: Inflation Pervasiveness2

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

1 The historical average was adjusted in August 2024 to 14.60 per cent (20210-2024), from 14.18 per cent (2010-2023) in the
preceding months to reflect recent reality, given the base period.

2 Pervasiveness is measured by the number of headline CPI items that are within specific inflation range. It reflects the extent
to which rising prices are affecting the cost of living. Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been high, with average inflation of
14.18 per cent from 2010–2023. Inflation is said to be more pervasive if there is a higher number of items registering inflation
above the historical average. The CPI items are therefore categorised into four groups namely, percentage of items registering

Percent (%)
Headline
Core
Food

Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Per cent
< 5.99%
6-10.99%
11-14.60%
> 14.60%
Inflation
Pervasiveness
COVID-19
RussiaUkraine
War
PMS subsidy
removal, Rate
unification

32 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Inflation momentum decelerated in the review period by 0.20
percentage point compared with 0.55 percentage point in the
preceding quarter of 2024. The slower pace was on account of the
sustained restrictive monetary policy stance of the Bank.
Figure 15: Inflation Momentum

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data
Note: Inflation Momentum is measured by taking the CPI for December end period of every year as the base period to
calculate the year-to-date inflation. The annualised or inflation momentum is then gotten by dividing the year-to-date inflation
of the current period by the figure that stands for each of the 12 months (e.g.: 1=January, 3=March, 9=September, or
11=November etc).

Core inflation (excluding farm produce and energy) inched up to
29.28 per cent, compared with 27.43 per cent in Q32024. The rise
was on account of inflation expectation, high energy prices, as well
as high costs of manufacturing inputs. Analysis of the core inflation
indicated that fish & seafood contributed 4.22 percentage points (pp),
followed by meat (3.60 pp), actual & input rentals for housing (3.58
pp), oil & fats (2.81 pp), and clothing & footwear (2.41 pp).


inflation of less than 5.99 per cent, between 6 per cent and 10.99 per cent, between 11 per cent and 14.17 per cent and, also
inflation above 14.18 per cent.

May'24
Jun'24
Jul'24
Aug'24
Sep'24
Oct'24
Nov'24
Dec'24
Annualised (%)
Inflation Momentum (%)
Inflation momentum
Annualised
Core
Inflation
Inflation
Momentum

33 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 16: Measures of Underlying Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

The disinflation inclination of the Bank contributed to a slower
trimmed mean and median measures of inflation compared with the
traditional core inflation measure in the review period.3 The core
measure of underlying inflation was 7.19 percentage points higher
than the trimmed mean measure (22.09%) and 7.45 percentage
points above the trimmed median (21.83%). This showed that more
items remained volatile in the period under review. Thus, oils & fats
which rose by 38.25 per cent; fish (38.59%); passenger transport by
road (42.48%); bread & cereals (43.51%); tobacco (43.71%); gas
(43.88%); and potatoes, yam & other tubers (43.99%); were excluded
from the upper band. While telephone & telefax services (0.96%);
telephone & telefax equipment (1.09%); motorcycles (4.03%); motor
cars (5.00%); musical instrument (5.24%); water supply (5.61%); and
photographic development (7.50%) were excluded from the lower
band.

3 Core inflation: measure of underlying inflation defined as headline less farm produce less energy
prices.
Trimmed Mean: measure of underlying inflation derived using the average rate of inflation after
trimming away a certain percentage of the distribution of price changes outliers at both ends of that
distribution.
Trimmed Median: measure of underlying inflation derived by obtaining median values from inflation of
CPI components.

Core inflation
Trimmed Median
20% Trimmed Mean
Trimmed
Mean and
Median
Measures

34 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 17: Component Drivers of Core Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Food inflation increased to 39.84 per cent (year-on-year), from 37.77
per cent in the preceding quarter, driven by knock-on effects of
higher transportation cost (as PMS price increased to an average of
N1,065/litre from an average of N895/litre in Q32024). Other factors
including festive-season-induced increase in demand, and hoarding
activities by middlemen contributed to the uptick in food inflation
during the review quarter.

Meat
Fish & Sea Food
Milk,Cheese & Eggs
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
BREAD UNSLICED 500g
CABIN BISCUIT: LOCAL MANUFACTURE 800g PACK
EKO(AGIDI/KAFA)
GARI WHITE,SOLD LOOSE
GARI YELLOW,SOLD LOOSE
MAIZE PASTE-WHITE(OGI/AKAMU)
PLANTAIN FLOUR
YAM FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Alcoholic Bev. Tobacco & Kola
Clothing & footwear
Actual and imputed rentals for housing
Furnishings, Household Equip &HH Maint.
Health
Vehicle Spare Parts
Passenger transport by road
Education
Restaurant & Hotels
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
OTHERS
Core Inflation
Food
Inflation

35 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce
to Food Inflation

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The contribution of both processed and the farm produce
components of food inflation rose in the review period. While the
contribution of processed food component rose to 18.36 pp from
17.16 pp in Q32024, the farm produce component rose to 21.48 pp
from 20.61 pp.
Figure 19: Component Drivers of Food Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

PER CENT
Processed food
Farm produce
Food Inflation

Meat, Fish & Egg
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
Bread, Biscuit & Sausage
Processed Corn
Garri
Flours
Fruits & Vegatables
Yam, Potatoes & other tubers
Maize Grain White Sold Loose
Millet (Jero or Maiwa) Sold Loose
Rice (Local & Imported)
Sorghum (Guinea Corn) White or Brown,Sold Loose
Food Inflation

36 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
The key contributors to food inflation were meat, fish & egg (7.08 pp);
rice (5.96 pp); yam, potatoes & other tubers (5.30 pp); garri (3.18 pp);
and fruits & vegetables (3.06 pp).


Box 1: Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities
The prices of most of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities increased in
Q42024 compared with the preceding quarter. The price increases ranged from 2.11
per cent for beans (white) to 40.88 per cent for onion bulb. This development was
primarily driven by the persistent increase in the costs of production and
transportation, which was further exacerbated by higher energy prices.

However, the prices of tomato decreased during the review period by 5.17 per cent,
largely on account of early harvest.


Q42023
Q32024
Q42024
%
Change
%
Change

UNIT

(1) &
(3)
(2) & (3)
Agric eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white, black eye, sold loose
"

Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality, sold loose
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Wheat flour: prepackaged (Golden
Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics


37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments
To bolster Nigeria's infrastructure, the Federal Government issued
six Sovereign Sukuk bonds worth ₦1.10tn (about US$657.60 million)
to finance 124 federal road projects covering over 5,820 kilometres
across the country’s six geopolitical zones.

To improve and expand access to healthcare in underserved and
hard-to-reach areas, the government deployed 333 Truenat
diagnostic machines for the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis
(TB) and other related diseases across the country. This
development would reduce the number of undiagnosed patients, and
curb the spread of TB in communities

The Federal Government approved the establishment of a Federal
University of Applied Sciences in Kachia, Kaduna State, to sustain
the drive towards addressing educational needs in the country.

2.1.4 Energy Sector and Electricity
2.1.4.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Development
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose in the review period
following improved security measures in key terminals. Nigeria's
average crude oil production, excluding condensates, rose by 7.52
per cent to 1.43 mbpd, from 1.33 mbpd in the preceding quarter. The
increase in the review quarter was, primarily, due to higher output
from 14 streams/terminals (such as Bonny, Qua Iboe, Forcados,
Bonga, Utapate, Okoro (Ex Ima terminal), Tulja-Okwuibomr, Brass,
Yoho, Okono, Erha and Ajapa). Though Nigeria crude oil output
remained below the target, it attained 95.33 per cent of the OPEC
production quota of 1.50 mbpd.
Total
crude
production,
including
blended
and
unblended
condensates, increased by 5.16 per cent to 1.63 mbpd, from 1.55
Health
Education
Transportation/
Construction
Crude Oil
Production
and Export

38 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
mbpd in Q32024. The growth was due to increased output from
Escravos, Brass, Tulja-Okwuibome, and Qua Iboe. Production
efficiency, in terms of the budget benchmark of 1.78 mbpd, stood at
91.57 per cent in Q42024.
Figure 20: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC Quota

Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

mbpd
Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota

39 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated an improvement in fiscal operations
of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in Q42024, due to
higher receipts from oil sources. Federally collected revenue
rose by 5.31 per cent but fell short of the benchmark by 19.67
per cent. FGN retained revenue was 10.40 per cent above the
level in the preceding quarter, but 48.57 per cent below the
target. Aggregate expenditure rose by 2.22 per cent above the
levels in Q32024, but was 22.09 per cent lower than the quarterly
target. Consequently, fiscal deficit narrowed by 3.61 per cent,
compared with the levels in Q32024, but widened by 34.44 per
cent, compared with the proportionate quarterly target. At endSeptember 2024, public debt was ₦142.32 trillion (51.29% of
GDP), which remained within the 70.00 per cent threshold for
Market-Access Countries.

2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Gross federation account earnings improved, occasioned by
higher receipts from oil revenue. At ₦7.23 trillion, provisional
gross federation account receipts were 5.31 per cent above the level
in the preceding quarter, but 19.67 per cent short of the benchmark.
The increase relative to the preceding quarter was due, largely, to
higher oil proceeds. Nevertheless, the composition of gross
federation revenue showed that non-oil revenue remained dominant,
accounting for 72.28 per cent, while oil revenue constituted the
balance.
Oil revenue rose by 53.59 per cent to ₦2.00 trillion relative to the
level in Q32024 but fell short of the quarterly target by 62.19 per cent.
Sustained efforts in securing oil infrastructure contributed to the
performance of oil revenue in comparison to the preceding quarter,
Drivers of
Federation
Revenue
Summary

40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
resulting to increased receipts from petroleum profit tax (PPT) and
royalties.
Non-oil revenue, at ₦5.23 trillion, was 6.03 per cent below the levels
in the preceding quarter, but 41.30 per cent above the target. The
drop relative to the preceding quarter was driven by low collections
from corporate tax reflecting the seasonal impact of tax return filings
by companies.4
Figure 21: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) and the Federal Ministry
of Finance (FMF)


4 Corporate tax is composed of company income tax, withholding tax and capital gain tax.
Non-oil
5,560.87
5,225.77
Oil
1,304.96
2,004.31
Federally-collected
Revenue

Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024

41 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 8: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the
Three-Tiers of Government (₦ Billion)

Q42023 /1
Q32024/1
Q42024/1
*Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers***

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates.
Note: *Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act.
** Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information
Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue,
and other non-regular earnings.
*** Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls, while transfers entail
provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue.
/1 Provisional

From the federally collected revenue of ₦7.23 trillion, a net balance
of ₦4.44 trillion was distributed to the three tiers of government after
accounting for additional revenue, and statutory deductions and

42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
transfers. The federal, state, and local governments received ₦1.44
trillion, ₦1.49 trillion and ₦1.09 trillion, respectively, while the
balance of ₦0.42 trillion was allocated to the 13% derivation fund for
oil-producing states. Net disbursement was 13.33 per cent above the
level in Q32024 but was 35.94 per cent short of the quarterly target.

2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government
FGN retained revenue rose in the review period, due to higher
receipts from the federation account, non-oil excess, and FGN
independent revenue. At ₦2.52 trillion, provisional FGN retained
revenue was 10.40 per cent above the level in Q32024, but was
48.57 per cent below the benchmark.
Table 9: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion)

Q42023 /1
Q32024 /1
Q42024 /1
*Budget
FGN Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Oil Revenue

Excess non-oil/EMTL

Exchange Gain

Others**

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation
Note:
/1 Provisional
* Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act.
** Others include revenue from Special Accounts and Special Levies.

Provisional aggregate expenditure of the FGN rose, on account
of higher personnel cost and interest payments. At ₦5.60 trillion,
provisional aggregate expenditure was 2.22 per cent above the level
in the preceding quarter, but was 22.09 per cent short of the quarterly
target of ₦7.19 trillion. The rise in expenditure relative to the
preceding quarter was associated with the increase in interest
payments and personnel costs, which rose by 6.98 and 23.31 per
cent, respectively.
Federal
Government
Retained
Revenue
Federal
Government
Expenditure

43 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Further analysis of total expenditure showed that recurrent (75.13%)
accounted for the largest share outlay, with the remainder split
between capital (17.10%) and transfer payments (7.77%).
Figure 22: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion)

Source: CBN Staff Estimates and OAGF

The fiscal operations of the FGN resulted in a narrower deficit
in Q42024. Provisional data showed that primary deficit narrowed by
22.62 per cent, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. The
overall deficit also reduced by 3.61 per cent to ₦3.08 trillion during
the review quarter, reflecting the improved balance that resulted from
a more than proportionate increase in revenue over expenditure.


Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Budget
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Transfers
Total Expenditure
Overall Fiscal
Balance

44 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 10: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion)

Q42023
Q32024 /1
Q42024 /1
Budget
Retained revenue

Aggregate expenditure

Recurrent

Non-debt

Debt Service

Capital

Transfers

Primary balance

Overall balance

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates Note: /1 provisional

At end-September 2024, public debt stock remained within the
70.00 per cent threshold for Market-Access Countries. Total
public debt outstanding stood at ₦142.32 trillion (51.29% of GDP),
at end-September 2024, and was 5.97 per cent, higher than the level
at end-June 2024. The rise was due, largely, to revaluation effect
(arising from exchange rate depreciation) and new borrowings to
finance the deficit outlined in the 2024 Appropriation Act. A
breakdown of the consolidated public debt indicated that domestic
debt accounted for 51.60 per cent, while external debt constituted
48.40 per cent. Of the consolidated public debt stock, FGN owed
₦117.60 trillion (which is 97.04% of the total), while state
governments owed the balance.5
A disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was
N68.89 trillion, accounting for 49.88 per cent, while external debt
constituted N69.22 trillion (50.12%). Further analysis revealed that
FGN Bonds remained dominant, with 78.95 per cent of the total

5 Includes the external debt of State governments, which are contingent liabilities of the Federal
government.
Federal
Government
Debt

45 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
domestic debt stock, followed by treasury bills (16.95%), promissory
notes (2.56%), and FGN Sukuk (1.43%), while others constituted the
balance.6 Of the total external debt stock, multilateral loans
accounted for 50.60 per cent, while the balance was sourced from
commercial (35.90%) and bilateral loans (13.50%).
Debt service at end-September 2024, at N3.58 trillion, was 1.86 per
cent above the N3.51 trillion recorded at end-June 2024, owing to
increased interest payments on both domestic and external
borrowings. A breakdown showed that domestic debt service was
N1.43 trillion (40.08%), while external debt service constituted N2.14
trillion (59.92%).
Figure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition
(₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office


6 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).

Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
External Debt
Domestic Debt
Total Debt

46 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 24: Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 25: External Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Compiled from DMO figures


FGN Bonds,
78.95%
Treasury Bills,
16.95%
Promisory
Note, 2.56%
FGN Sukuk,
1.43%
Others, 0.11%
FGN Bonds,
78.95%
Treasury Bills,
16.95%
Promisory
Note, 2.56%
FGN Sukuk,
1.43%
Others, 0.11%


47 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.3 Monetary and Financial Developments
Monetary expansion accelerated in the review period, reflecting
increase in claims on non-residents and notable rise in credit
to key sectors of the economy. The growth of broad money
supply (M3) followed the increases in net foreign assets (NFA)
and net domestic assets (NDA), even as liquidity fluctuations in
the banking system drove key short-term interest rates higher.
The banking industry remained robust as financial soundness
indicators were within regulatory thresholds. The capital
market exhibited positive sentiments, evident in the upbeat
performance across various market segments during the
review period.

2.3.1 Monetary Developments
Reserve money grew at end-December 2024, resulting from the
rise in currency-in-circulation (CIC) and liabilities to other
depository corporations (ODCs). Relative to the level at endDecember 2023, reserve money grew by 32.09 per cent to ₦32.67
trillion compared with 13.75 per cent growth at end-September 2024.
At this level, reserve money was ₦4.40 trillion (15.56%) above the
2024 benchmark of ₦28.27 trillion. The growth was driven by the
48.94 and 29.17 per cent increases in CIC and liabilities to ODCs to
₦5.44 trillion and ₦27.23 trillion, respectively.


Reserve Money
Summary

48 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 26: Developments in Reserve Money (₦ Trillion) and
Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Figure 27: Q-o-Q Growth in Reserve Money

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Notes and coins, which constituted the largest component of CIC,
expanded by 26.33 per cent to ₦5.42 trillion at end-December 2024,
from ₦4.29 trillion at end-September 2024. The eNaira component,
however, moderated by 0.19 per cent to ₦18.31 billion in the review
quarter from ₦18.35 billion at end-September 2024.


-

Dec. 23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Ratio
₦ Trillion
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)


Dec. 23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Per cent (%)
Currency-in-Circulation
Reserve Money
Liabilities to ODCs

49 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 28: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Developments in the monetary aggregates indicated that M3 grew
by 42.76 per cent to ₦113.14 trillion despite a decline in money
multiplier to 3.46 from 3.89 in September 2024. From the liability
side, the increase in broad money was due to growths in currency
outside depository corporations (49.20%), transferable deposits
(25.19%) and other deposits (53.13%). Other deposits, with a share
of 32.65 percentage points (pp), contributed the most to the growth
in M3, followed by transferable deposits (8.49 pp), and currency
outside depository corporations (2.13 pp). However, securities other
than shares which declined by 95.87 per cent at end-December
2024, slowed the growth in broad money by 0.51 pp.


Dec. 23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
eNaira

Notes and Coins

Currency in
Circulation

₦' Billion
Broad Money
Supply

50 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 11: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December
(per cent)
Monetary Aggregates
Dec-23
Sep-24
Dec-24
Contribution to M3
Growth (percentage
point)
(%)
(%)
(%)


(Dec-24)
Net Foreign Assets

Claims on Non-residents

Liabilities to Non-residents

Net Domestic Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on Central
Government

Claims on Central Government

Liabilities to Central Government

Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Other Financial Corporations

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Public Nonfinancial
Corporations

Claims on Private Sector

Total Monetary Assets (M3)

Currency Outside Depository
Corporations

Transferable Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than Shares

Total Monetary Liabilities(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

On the asset side, growth in M3 was driven by increases in both NFA
and NDA. At end-December 2024, NFA increased by 193.61 per
cent to ₦27.42 trillion and contributed 22.81 pp to the overall growth
in M3, relative to the 108.79 per cent growth and a contribution of
12.82 pp at end-September 2024. Likewise, NDA increased by 22.61
per cent to ₦85.72 trillion, with a 19.95 pp contribution to the growth
in M3. The increase in NDA reflected the 20.55 per cent growth in

51 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
claims on other sectors, as net claims on central government
declined by 4.48 per cent. In the same vein, the increase in “claims
on other sectors” was occasioned by the rise in claims on public
nonfinancial corporations (15.74%) and claims on private sector
(31.30%).

2.3.2 Sectoral Credit Utilisation
The total credit utilised among key sectors rose by 1.11 per cent to
₦59.21 trillion at end-December 2024, compared with ₦58.57 trillion
at end-September 2024. The credit advanced to the agriculture and
services sectors increased by 23.38 and 5.15 per cent to ₦2.85
trillion and ₦32.69 trillion, respectively, compared with their levels at
end-September 2024. Conversely, credit utilised by industry
declined by 5.96 per cent to ₦23.67 trillion, from ₦25.17 trillion in the
preceding quarter. The services sector utilised most credit at 55.21
per cent followed by industry and agriculture, which accounted for
39.97 and 4.82 per cent, respectively.
Table 12: Sectoral Credit Allocation
SECTORS
Allocation (₦ trillion)
Share in Total (%)
Growth
(%)
Dec-23
Sep-24
Dec-24
Dec-23
Sep-24
Dec-24
(3) & (2)

[a] Agriculture

[b] Industry

of which
Manufacturing

[c] Services

of which:

Finance, Insurance
& Capital Market
Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL
44.54
58.57
59.21

1.11
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Sectoral Credit
Utilisation


52 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Consumer credit outstanding rose by 11.06 per cent to ₦4.72 trillion
at end-December 2024, from ₦4.25 trillion at end-September 2024.
Personal loan increased by 21.27 per cent to ₦3.82 trillion compared
with the level at end-September 2024. Retail loan, however, declined
by 18.18 per cent to ₦0.90 trillion from ₦1.10 trillion at endSeptember 2024. A breakdown indicated that personal loans, with a
share of 80.98 per cent, remained dominant, while retail loans
accounted for the balance.
Figure 29: Consumer Credit Outstanding

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3 Financial Developments
2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments
Average banking system liquidity declined in Q42024, relative
to the level in the preceding quarter, driven, mainly by
withdrawals via monetary operations. Banking system liquidity
was moderated in the review quarter by standing lending facility
(SLF) repayment, cash reserve ratio (CRR) debits, open market
operations (OMO) sales, Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) sales, foreign
exchange open market operations (FX-OMO) swap settlement,
among others. Average net industry balance declined by 6.25 per
cent to ₦0.15 trillion from ₦0.16 trillion in the preceding quarter.


Dec. 23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
₦'Trillion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total
Consumer
Credit
Industry Liquidity
Condition

53 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Activities at the standing facility window in Q42024 reflected the
moderate liquidity condition in the banking system. Total
transactions at the SLF window increased to ₦44.83 trillion from
₦27.95 trillion in the preceding quarter, with daily average rising to
₦0.73 trillion from ₦0.43 trillion. At the standing deposit facility (SDF)
window, transactions declined to ₦15.00 trillion from ₦15.07 trillion,
as daily average rose slightly to ₦0.24 trillion from 0.23 trillion in the
preceding quarter.
Figure 30: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the open market operations indicated that the total
amount offered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦5.08 trillion, ₦10.26
trillion, and ₦8.34 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦2.80 trillion,
₦2.96 trillion, and ₦2.34 trillion in the preceding quarter. The stop
rate was 24.67(±0.72) per cent, relative to 21.42(±2.94) per cent in
the preceding quarter.

Q4'23
Q3'24
Q4'24

₦'Trillion
SLF
SDF
Open Market
Operations
Discount
Windows

54 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 31: Open Market Operation

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Subscriptions for NTBs increased, while those for FGN Bonds
declined in Q42024, relative to the levels in the preceding period.
Total NTBs offered, subscribed, and allotted across tenors
amounted to ₦2.77 trillion, ₦6.73 trillion and ₦3.39 trillion
respectively, compared with ₦1.69 trillion, ₦4.19 trillion, and ₦1.62
trillion in Q32024. The higher subscription was attributable to
increased stop rates on all the maturities at 19.90(±3.6) per cent,
from 19.20(±2.9) in the preceding quarter.
Figure 32: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q4'23
Q3'24
Q4'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment

Q4'23
Q3'24
Q4'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Government
Securities

55 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Lower amount of FGN Bonds of various tranches were offered
(₦0.42 trillion), subscribed (₦1.04 trillion) and allotted (₦0.85 trillion),
compared with ₦0.64 trillion, ₦1.15 trillion, and ₦0.86 trillion,
respectively, in the preceding quarter. The marginal rate was
21.38(±1.38) per cent relative to 20.49(±1.49) per cent in the
preceding quarter, while the bid rate stood at 21.00(±3.00) per cent
compared with 22.00(±8.00) per cent.
Figure 33: Primary Auctions of FGN Bond

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Key short-term interest rates, except the interbank call rate, inched
up and in line with the liquidity condition in the banking system.
Average open buy back (OBB) rate rose by 1.09 pp to 29.85 per cent,
from 28.76 per cent in Q32024. Similarly, the Nigerian interbank
offered rate (NIBOR) and the NIBOR-30 rates increased by 1.50 pp
and 1.50 pp to 27.91 per cent and 28.81 per cent, respectively.
Average interbank call rate, however, declined by 0.84 pp to 28.71
per cent, from 29.55 per cent in the preceding quarter. The decline
in the interbank call rate reflected lending relationships among
banks.

0.5

1.5

Q4'23
Q3'24
Q4'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Interest Rate
Developments

56 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 34: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Lending rates levitated in Q42024, as average prime and maximum
lending rates increased by 1.55 pp and 0.67 pp, respectively, to
18.10 per cent and 30.35 per cent relative to the levels in the
preceding quarter. The weighted average term deposit rate,
however, declined by 1.41 pp to 9.67 per cent in the preceding
quarter. Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposit and maximum lending rates widened to 20.68 pp,
relative to 18.60 pp in Q32024.
Figure 35: Trend in Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates


Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WAVTD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate; and SPRD= Spread.


Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Per cent (%)
Interbank Call
OBB
NIBOR Call
NIBOR-30day
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor

-

Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Percentage point
Per cent (%)
PLR
MLR
WATD
Spread(RHS)

57 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.3.3.2
Capital Market Developments
The Nigerian equities and bonds markets experienced
increased
momentum,
bolstered
by
favourable
market
conditions. The aggregate market capitalisation increased by 6.19
per cent to ₦109.29 trillion, from ₦102.92 trillion at end-September
2024. The rise was driven by renewed investor confidence, year-end
festivities, optimism on favourable end-of-year corporate earnings,
and heightened economic activity.
The equities and debt components of the market increased by 10.80
per cent and 0.54 per cent, respectively, to N62.76 trillion and N46.50
trillion, compared with N56.64 trillion and N46.25 trillion in the
preceding quarter. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), however,
declined by 9.99 per cent to N29.19 billion compared with N32.43
billion in the preceding quarter. The equities component sustained its
dominance of the market constituting 57.43 per cent of the aggregate
market capitalisation, while the debt and ETFs components
accounted for the balance of 42.57 per cent.
The All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 3.85 per cent to 102,350.25
index points, from 98,558.79 index points in the preceding quarter.
The sustained rise derived from new listings and strong demand for
equities, underlain by year-end portfolio rebalancing and a positive
2025 macroeconomic outlook.
Market
Capitalisation

58 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share
Index
Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

A disaggregation of the equities component of market capitalisation
showed that the main board (37.86%) was the dominant
constituent, followed by premium board (19.48%), growth board
(0.08%), and real estate investment trust & close end fund (0.01%),
while ASeM remained flat.


Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Index Points
₦'Trillion
Aggregate Market Cap (LHS)
All Share Index (RHS)

59 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 13: Percentage Contributions to Aggregate Market
Capitalisation
Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

Figure 37: Percentage Contribution of Equities, Bonds, and
ETFs Market Capitalisation to AMC

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited


Most of the capital market indices exhibited a bullish trend in
Q42024, with NGXINS and NGXGROWTH topping the chart.
However, NGXINDUSTRY, NGXSOVBND and NGXPENBRD
57.43
42.53
0.04
Equities Market Capitalisation
Debt Market Capitalisation
ETF Market Capitalisation
SECURITIES
Contributions (%)
EQUITIES
57.43
Main Board
37.86
Premium Board
19.48
Growth Board
0.08
Real Estate Investment Trust & Close End Fund
0.01
ASeM
0.00
BONDS
42.53
Government Bonds- Federal
41.12
Government Bonds- State and Local
0.32
Corporate Bonds/Debentures
1.09
ETF
0.04
Total

Sectoral
Indices

60 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
recorded declines relative to the levels in the preceding quarter. The
rise in most of the indices reflected the impressive performance of
some highly capitalised stocks, supported by optimism in the
Q42024 corporate earnings results.
Table 14: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indices
Q32024
Q42024
Change (%)
NGXINS
429.93

67.0
NGXGROWTH
4,884.27
7,762.86
58.9
NGXOILGAS
1,990.84
2,712.06
36.2
NGXMERIVAL
7,795.35
10,375.32
33.1
NGXAFRHDYI
13,770.03
16,642.63
20.9
NGXMERIGRW
5,424.77
6,490.69
19.6
NGXAFRBVI
2,093.92
2,467.38
17.8
NGXCG
2,403.18
2,814.39
17.1
NGXBNK
944.48
1,084.52
14.8
NGXLOTUSISLM
6,108.53
6,955.89
13.9
NGXPENSION
4,012.95
4,521.13
12.7
NGXCNSMRGDS
1,564.09
1,731.67
10.7
NGXPREMIUM
9,050.21
9,719.75
7.4
NGXPENBRD
1,717.03
1,826.89
6.4
NGX30
3,661.41
3,811.94
4.1
NGXMAINBOARD
4,832.03
4,988.79
3.2
NGXASEM
1,583.71
1,583.71
0.0
NGXSOVBND
624.3
601.54
-3.6
NGXINDUSTR
3,806.57
3,572.17
-6.2
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Trading activities on the Exchange increased in the review quarter as
the value of traded securities rose by 26.24 per cent to N785.64
billion, from N622.34 billion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, the
volume of traded securities decreased by 9.29 per cent to 34.36
billion shares, from 37.88 billion shares recorded in the previous
quarter. Total number of deals on the Exchange decreased by 4.98
per cent to 566,698 deals, relative to the level in the preceding
quarter.
Market
Transactions

61 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 38: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX

Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

Compared with the 33 listings recorded at the preceding quarter, a
total of 23 securities were listed on the Exchange, comprising of 13
new listings and 10 supplementary listings. The total amount of
available listings was reduced as the Exchange delisted
40,647,990,293 units of ordinary shares of Transnational Corporation
Plc.

Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Billion Shares
₦'Billion
Value of traded Securities (LHS)
Volume of traded Securities (RHS)
NGX Listings

62 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Table 15: Listings and De-listings on the Nigerian Exchange
Limited in Q42024
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
Flour Mills Nigeria Plc
(22.00% FMN MAY 2029)
Issued 46,000,000 units amounting to
N46,000,000,000.00
New listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
2,732,000 units
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
31,079,000 units
Supplementary listing
19.89% FGN MAY 2033
230,716,436 units
Supplementary listing
Aradel Holdings Plc
4,344,844,360 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo
each at ₦702.69 Per Share
New listing
C&I Leasing Plc
Additional 1,645,833,333 ordinary shares
of 50 Kobo each
Supplementary listing
Transnational Corporation
Plc
10,161,997,574 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each at N44.2 per share
New listing
FBN Holdings Plc
5,982,548,799 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each at N25.00 per share.
New listing
17.084% FGS OCT 2026
Issued 1,024,114 units amounting to
N1,024,114,000
New listing
Chapel
Hill
Denham
Nigeria
Infrastructure
Debt Fund (NIDF or the
Fund)
218,084 additional units of shares
Supplementary listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
57,236,801units
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
232,360,472 units
Supplementary listing
United Bank for Africa Plc
6,839,884,274 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each at N35.00 per share.
New listing
Haldane McCall Plc
3,122,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo
each at N3.84 per share
New listing
Chapel
Hill
Denham
Management Limited
Additional 93,950,000 ordinary shares of
N100.00 each at N109.43 per unit
Supplementary listing
17.440% FGS NOV 2026
760,189 units amounting to N760,189,000
New listing
NGX30M5
Future contract at N3,966.25
New listing
NGXPENSIONM5
Future contract N4,641.75
New listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
64,029,801 units
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
282,625,193 units
Supplementary listing
Nigerian Breweries Plc
20,706,894,542 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each at ₦26.50 per share.
New listing
Jaiz Bank Plc
10,048,237,955 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each per share
New listing
17.483% FGS DEC 2026
876,873 units amounting to N876,873,000
New listing
Transnational Corporation
Plc
40,647,990,293 units of ordinary shares
Delisting
Source: Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX).
Notes: FGN/FGS=Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc=Public Limited Liability Company.


2.3.3.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
The banking sector remained resilient and stable during the
review period, evidenced by the robust performance of key
financial soundness indicators. The banking system capital
adequacy ratio (CAR) improved by 2.68 pp to 15.20 per cent, relative
to the 12.52 per cent in the preceding period. The development
reflected the improvement of banks’ total qualifying capital and the
decrease of risk-weighted assets. The ratio remained above the

63 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
10.00
and
15.00
per
cent
benchmarks
for
banks
with
national/regional and international authorisations, respectively.
Banks’ asset quality improved as the ratio of non-performing loans
(NPL) declined by 0.08 pp to 4.50 per cent from 4.58 per cent in
September 2024. The ratio was below the prudential benchmark of
5.00 per cent, implying an improvement in loan recoveries due to
compliance with the extant regulations.
The industry liquidity ratio (LR) grew by 5.47 pp to 49.06 per cent,
relative to 43.59 per cent in the preceding quarter. The LR remained
above the minimum regulatory benchmark of 30.00 per cent,
illustrating the liquidity sufficiency of the banking system and the
ability of banks to meet emerging obligations.


64 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
2.4
External Sector Developments
The performance of the external sector strengthened in Q4 2024
with the overall balance of payments recording a surplus,
compared with the preceding quarter. The surplus in the current
account decreased relative to the preceding period, buoyed by
lower trade surplus and higher deficit in the primary income
account. The financial account recorded a net acquisition of
financial assets, driven largely by significant lower loan
liabilities. At US$40.19 billion, the external reserves could cover
8.15 months of import for goods and services or 12.00 months
for goods only. The average exchange rate at the Nigerian
Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) was ₦1,623.26/US$ compared
with ₦1,588.64/US$ in Q32024.

2.4.1 Current and Capital Account
The surplus in the current and capital accounts declined,
underpinned by a lower trade surplus and declined remittance
inflow. The surplus in the current account fell to US$3.80 billion,
equivalent to 7.59 per cent of GDP, compared with US$5.78 billion
or 12.44 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter. The increase was
driven, primarily, by a lower surplus in the goods account, attributed
to decreased export earnings and an increase in import bills.

Summary

65 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 39: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Earnings from merchandise export fell in Q42024, as a decline
in crude oil price drove lower crude oil export receipts.
Aggregate export earnings fell by 3.50 per cent to US$12.67 billion,
from US$13.13 billion in Q32024. A breakdown showed that oil
receipts declined to US$10.63 billion, from US$11.25 billion in
Q32024, reflecting the decline in global crude oil price to US$75.66
per barrel from US$82.23 per barrel in the preceding quarter. The
decline in price resulted from the rise in global crude oil supply,
especially by the United States, leading to an oversupply situation
that outweighed demand. In contrast, non-oil export receipts
improved, rising to US$2.04 billion from US$1.88 billion in the
preceding quarter. The increase in non-oil proceeds was supported
by improved earnings from the export of electricity and other non-oil
products, particularly agricultural commodities. Crude oil and gas
exports continued to dominate merchandise export, accounting for
83.88 per cent of total earnings, while non-oil exports contributed the
remaining share.

Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Export
Performance
Export
Performance

66 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Merchandise import bills rose, reflecting an increase in the
importation of non-oil products. Merchandise import rose by 9.26
per cent to US$10.05 billion, from US$9.20 billion in Q32024. A
disaggregation indicated that non-oil import increased to US$7.37
billion from US$5.94 billion in the preceding quarter, particularly due
to an increase in the imports of industrial and manufactured
products. Oil imports decreased to US$2.68 billion, from US$3.26
billion in the preceding quarter. By share, non-oil payments
continued to dominate merchandise import, accounting for 73.34 per
cent, while oil import bills constituted the balance.
Analysis of import by sector indicated that the industrial sector,
mainly raw materials and machinery accounted for the largest share
of imports, with 50.41 per cent. This was followed by oil sector
(20.24%), food products (13.15%), manufactured products (9.22%),
minerals (3.54%), transport (2.94%) and agricultural products
(0.50%).
Figure 40: Import by Classification in Per cent
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
FOOD PRODUCTS
MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS
TRANSPORT SECTOR
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
MINERALS
OIL SECTOR
Merchandise
Import

67 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
The deficit in services account widened, on account of
increased payments for transport, insurance and pension,
financial and other business services. At US$3.48 billion, the
deficit in the services account widened, compared to US$3.15 billion
in Q32024. Total payment for services increased by 8.44 per cent to
US$4.75 billion, from the levels in the preceding quarter. A
breakdown of the components of services indicated that payments
for transport services rose to US$1.65 billion from US$1.48 billion.
Similarly, payments for Insurance & pension services, financial
services and other business services rose to US$0.29 (86.32%),
US$0.28 (47.23%), and US$0.98 (24.84%) respectively from their
levels in Q32024. Payments for travel services also increased by
3.77 per cent to US$1.22 billion from US$1.17 billion in Q32024.
On the other hand, payments for telecommunications, computer &
information services, decreased by 68.16 per cent to US$0.11 billion.
Payments for government goods and services, decreased to
US$0.15 billion, from US$0.18 billion in Q32024. A decline was also
recorded in the payments for personal, cultural & recreational
services (US$0.01 billion, 17.56%).
Analysis of total payment for services showed that transport
accounted for 34.65 per cent, followed by travels (25.67%), other
business (20.55%), insurance and pension services (6.12%) and
financial services (5.99%). Other contributors were government
goods & services (3.09%), telecommunication services (2.29%), and
insurance & pension services (3.14%), while “others” accounted for
the balance.
Services
Services

68 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 41: Share of Service Out-Payments in Per cent

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from the export of services increased by 3.11 per cent to
US$1.27 billion due, mainly, to higher inflow from financial services.
A disaggregation showed that financial services increased by 36.64
per cent to US$0.44 billion. other business services also increased
by 18.28 per cent to US$0.02 billion. Conversely, receipts from
transport services declined by 8.78 per cent to US$0.53 billion.
Insurance & pension services also recorded lower earnings of
US$0.04 billion relative to US$0.07 billion in the preceding quarter.
Receipts from telecommunication service fell by 6.65 per cent to
US$0.04 billion compared with the level in the preceding quarter.
Of the total receipts from services, transport constituted 41.64 per
cent, followed by financial (34.94%), government goods & services
(9.93%), travels (5.02%), telecommunication (3.52%) and insurance
& pension (3.09%). Other services accounted for the balance.
Transportation,
34.65
Travels, 25.67
Other business
services, 20.55
Insurance and
pension, 6.12
Financial
services, 5.99
Telecommunicati
on, 2.29
Government
goods and
services, 3.09
Others, 1.64

69 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 42: Share of Services Receipts in Per cent

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The primary income account balance posted a higher deficit,
reflecting increased repatriation of dividends by non-residents.
The deficit in the primary income account increased to US$1.78
billion, from US$1.01 billion in Q32024. A disaggregation showed
that the deficit in the investment income sub-account increased to
US$1.86 billion, from US$1.08 billion in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the surplus in the compensation of employees sub-account
widened to US$0.08 billion from US$0.07 billion in the preceding
quarter.

Transportation
41.64%
Travels
5.02%
Financial
services
34.94%
Telecommunica
tion
3.52%
Government
goods and
services
9.93%
Others
4.95%
Primary Income

70 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 43: Primary Income Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The surplus in the secondary income account increased, due to
higher inflow of general government transfers. The surplus in the
secondary income account rose by 7.12 per cent to US$6.44 billion,
from US$6.01 billion in the preceding quarter. The improvement was
driven by higher general government transfers which increased by
109.85 per cent to US1.44 billion from US$0.68 billion in Q32024.
conversely,
private
sector
transfers,
particularly
workers'
remittances, fell by 6.00 per cent to US$5.08 billion from US$5.40
billion in the preceding quarter


Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024

US$ Billion
Secondary Income

71 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 44: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow
(US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2 Financial Account
A net acquisition of financial assets was recorded in the
financial account, driven by reduction in loan liabilities. The
financial account recorded a net acquisition of financial assets of
US$7.82 billion, against a net incurrence of financial liabilities of
US$0.59 billion in Q32024.
The economy recorded a divestment of liabilities at US$7.95 billion
against an inflow of US$12.38 billion in the preceding quarter. The
development was due to a significant reduction in the Central Bank’s
short – term loan liabilities. A disaggregation showed an outflow of
‘other investment’ at US$13.89 billion against an inflow of US$10.00
billion in Q32024, due to reduction in short – term loan liabilities.
Portfolio investment rose to US$5.61 billion, from US$1.92 billion in
the preceding quarter, while foreign direct investment liabilities
declined to US$0.31 billion from US$0.57 billion in Q32024.

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024

Secondary income balance
Remittances
Government transfers
Net Incurrence
of Liability
Financial
Account
Developments

72 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
A disposal of financial assets at US$0.14 billion was recorded in
Q42024, against an acquisition of US$11.79 billion in the preceding
quarter. The development was due to a disposal of foreign currency
and deposit by resident investors at US$1.26 billion from an
acquisition of US$6.78 billion in Q32024. Direct investment assets
decreased to US$0.26 billion, relative to US$0.63 billion in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, portfolio investments fell to US$0.02
billion from US$0.24 billion in Q32024. ‘Other investment’ asset
recorded a disposal of US$1.54 billion from an acquisition of
US$6.83 billion in the preceding quarter.

2.4.3 External Debt
Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-September 2024, stood at
US$43.03 billion (23.14% of GDP). A breakdown of external debt
stock showed that the multilateral loans, including loans from the
World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, and African
Development Bank Group, amounted to US$21.77 billion,
accounting for 50.60 per cent of the total external debt stock.
Commercial loans (Euro Bonds) amounted to US$15.12 billion
(35.14%), while US$5.81 billion (13.50%) was sourced from bilateral
loans, and the balance of US$0.33 billion (0.76%) came from
syndicated loans (African Finance Corporation).
External debt service payments at end-September 2024 stood at
US$1.34 billion. A breakdown showed that principal repayment
totalling US$0.72 billion accounted for 53.73 per cent of the debt
service payments. Interest payments constituted US$0.62 billion
(46.27% of total), while other payments accounted for the balance.
Analysis of interest payments showed that commercial borrowings,
at US$0.44 billion, accounted for 70.96 per cent of the total, while
External Debt
Net Acquisition
of Asset

73 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
interest payments to multilateral institutions was US$0.12 billion
(19.35%). Interest on bilateral loans accounted for the balance.
2.4.4 International Investment Position (IIP)
The international investment position posted a lower net
financial liability of US$60.46 billion. The stock of financial assets
rose to US$115.32 billion, from US$102.46 billion in the preceding
quarter, driven primarily, by an increase in reserve assets and other
investment. Other investment and reserve assets increased by 20.98
per cent and 10.19 per cent, respectively, to US$40.19 billion and
US$52.80 billion, from the levels in the preceding quarter. Similarly,
direct investment and portfolio investment assets grew to US$17.57
billion, and US$4.63 billion, respectively, from US$16.86 billion and
US$4.31 billion in the preceding quarter.
The stock of financial liabilities fell to US$175.79 billion, from
US$192.23 billion in Q32024, driven largely by a 19.47 per cent
decline in ‘other investment’ liabilities to US$68.61 billion. Direct
investment liabilities decreased to US$69.21 billion, from US$75.20
billion recorded in the preceding quarter. Conversely, portfolio
investment liabilities increased to US$37.87 billion from US$31.59
billion in Q32024.

2.4.5 External Reserves
The external reserves increased and remained above the
benchmark of 3 months of import cover during the review
period. The external reserves rose to US$40.19 billion, from
US$39.29 billion at end-September 2024. This level of reserves
could cover 8.15 months of import for goods and services or 12.00
months for goods only.
International
Reserves
International
Investment
Position

74 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 45: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that the
shares of the CBN and the FGN stood at US$33.95 billion and
US$6.24 billion, respectively, while the Federation accounted for the
balance. A disaggregation showed the continued dominance of the
US dollar (US$31.94 billion or 79.48%), followed by Special Drawing
Rights (US$4.14 billion or 10.31%), Chinese yuan (US$3.27 billion
or 8.14%), the euro (US$0.55 billion or 1.37%), and the British pound
(US$0.28 billion or 0.70%). Other currencies accounted for the
balance.

2.4.6 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
The economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange inflow,
driven largely by inflow through autonomous sources. Foreign
exchange inflow through the economy increased by 20.62 per cent
to US$27.81 billion from US$23.06 billion in Q32024. Inflows through
the Bank decreased by 4.05 per cent to US$11.54 billion from
US$12.03 billion, while autonomous sources rose by 47.55 per cent
to US$16.27 billion from US$11.03 billion in the preceding quarter.
-5
-3
-1

Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods) - RHS
Months- RHS
Foreign
Exchange
Flows

75 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Foreign exchange outflow through the economy rose by 31.37 per
cent to US$10.42 billion, relative to the level in Q32024. Outflows
through the Bank and autonomous sources at US$8.99 billion and
US$1.43 billion, increased by 22.98 per cent and 129.59 per cent
over the respective levels in the preceding quarter. Consequently,
net foreign exchange inflow through the economy increased by
14.99 per cent to US$17.39 billion from US$15.13 billion in the
preceding quarter. An increase was also recorded in net inflow
through autonomous sources to US$14.84 billion from US$10.40
billion in the preceding quarter. A net inflow of US$2.56 billion was
recorded through the Bank, compared with a net inflow of US$4.72
billion in Q32024.
Figure 46: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the
Economy (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The average turnover at the NFEM increased by 75.17 per cent to
US$296.16 million, compared with US$169.07 million in Q32024,
reflecting increased trading activities in the market.
Q4 2023
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Inflow
5.01
23.06
27.81
Outflow
8.69
7.93
10.42
Netflow


76 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 47: Turnover in the NAFEM

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar at the NFEM
stood at ₦1,623.26/US$, compared with ₦1,588.64/US$ in Q32024.
This represented a 2.13 per cent depreciation of the exchange rate
at the NFEM during the review period, owing to increased demand
pressure.

The Chinese renminbi and the Russian ruble depreciated by 0.42
and 11.21 per cent, respectively, compared with the preceding
quarter. The depreciation of renminbi was largely driven by market
anticipations of impending US tariff policies, while continued
Western sanctions on Russia impacted the ruble. In contrast, the
South African rand appreciated by 0.22 per cent, supported by
improved economic indicators that enhanced investors’ confidence.


Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Per cent
US$ (M)
Average Turnover (LHS)
Rate of Turnover (RHS)
Average
Exchange Rate
Emerging Market
Currencies

77 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
Figure 48: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank Nigeria & Reuters

Table 16: Selected EMEs Currency Rates to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian Naira
Period
Chinese
yuan
Nigerian
naira
South
African
rand
Russian
ruble
Q42023

Q32024

Q42024


78 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1
Global Outlook
Global output growth is expected to maintain an upward
trajectory in 2025, with varied outcomes across regions. The
global economy is projected to improve slightly to 3.30 per cent in
2025, from an estimated 3.20 per cent in 2024, as consumer demand
remains strong across both AEs and EMDEs.7
Growth is expected to be more pronounced in AEs, at 1.90 per cent
in 2025, compared with an estimated 1.70 per cent in 2024, driven
largely by increased investment and robust consumption in the US
and the Euro area. Growth in EMDEs is projected to remain stable
at 4.20 per cent in both 2024 and 2025, as weak growth in other
economies is expected to be offset by strong growth forecast in India
and the Middle East.
Global inflation is projected to decline from an estimated 5.70 per
cent in 2024 to 4.20 per cent in 2025 and further to 3.50 per cent in
2026. The expected moderation in inflation and ultimate
convergence towards the targets is due, largely, to a cooling labour
market, and anticipated decline in energy prices on account of the
incoming US government’s disposition towards aggressive oil
drilling. The impact of previous episodes of tight monetary policies
will also continue to support the disinflationary trends.

3.2
Domestic Outlook
Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at a faster pace in the
medium term. The anticipated improvement is hinged on the
expected stability of the naira at the foreign exchange market,

7 WEO January 2025

79 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q42024
ECONOMIC REPORT, FOURTH QUARTER 2024
continued improvement in domestic crude oil production, and the
crystallisation of the ongoing policy reforms.
Nigeria's inflation is expected to begin to moderate from
Q12025. The expected disinflation is hinged on the lagged effect of
the Bank’s restrictive policy stance, the relative stability at the foreign
exchange market and improved security in food-producing areas. An
unlikely rise in exchange market pressure, increased money supply,
hike in PMS price, higher electricity and import tariff, and escalation
of insecurity in food-producing areas are potential downside risks to
inflation.