ECONOMIC REPORT
SECOND QUARTER 2018


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Second Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Second Quarter

Contents


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Economic Report Second Quarter


Text Tables

Appendix Tables


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Figures


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Economic Report Second Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary policy stance in
May 2018, aimed at further curbing inflationary pressure. Broad
money supply, (M2) rose by 3.6 per cent, compared with the growth
of 1.3 per cent at end-March 2018, mainly, on account of the
respective increase of 17.2 per cent and 7.2 per cent in foreign
assets (net) and other assets (net) of the banking system. Over the
level at end-December 2017, broad money supply, (M2), grew by 4.9
per cent, due to 23.5 per cent increase in foreign assets (net) of the
banking system. Relative to its level at end-March 2018, narrow
money supply (M1), rose by 2.9 per cent due, wholly, to the growth in
its demand deposit components.
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while lending
rates trended upward in the review quarter. The average term
deposit rate fell by 2.36 percentage points to 5.98 per cent at endJune 2018, while other deposit rates of various maturities, rose from a
range of 3.45 – 10.53 per cent at end-March 2018 to a range of 3.75
– 10.79 per cent at end-June 2018. The average savings rate fell by
0.01 percentage point to 4.07 per cent at the end-June 2018.
Similarly, the average prime and maximum lending rates fell by 0.01
percentage point and 0.06 percentage point to 17.30 per cent and
31.54 per cent, respectively, at the end of the review quarter.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average term
deposit and maximum lending rates widened by 2.30 percentage
points to 25.57 percentage points, while the margin between the
average savings and the maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.06
percentage point to 27.47 percentage points. The weighted
average inter-bank call rate fell by 4.25 percentage points to 14.73
per cent at end-June 2018.
The total value of money market assets outstanding declined by 3.4
per cent to N11,690.29 billion, at end-June 2018. The development
was attributed to the fall in treasury bills and FGN Bonds outstanding
in the review quarter. Developments on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) were generally bearish.
Federally-collected revenue, at N2,318.25 billion, in the second
quarter of 2018, was 13.6 per cent lower than the proportionate
budget estimate, but was 11.3 per cent above the receipts in the
preceding quarter. The development relative to budget estimate
was due to the shortfall in receipts from non-oil revenue in the review
quarter. Federal Government estimated retained revenue and total

1 Data on monetary aggregates, government spending and foreign
exchange flows are provisional and subject to changes


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Economic Report Second Quarter

expenditure were N896.74 billion and N988.91 billion, respectively,
resulting in an estimated deficit of N92.17 billion in the second
quarter of 2018.
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by
harvesting and replanting of cereals and tuber crops in the Southern
states, while farmers in Northern states engaged in planting of
cereals and legume crops. The end-period inflation, on year-on-year
and 12-month moving average bases for the review period were
estimated at 11.06 per cent and 14.40 per cent, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to
US$12.68 billion and US$11.86 billion, respectively, resulting in a net
inflow of US$0.82 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorised dealers amounted to US$7.90 billion. The average
exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar appreciated to
N361.84/US$ and N305.77/US$ at the BDC and inter-bank segments,
respectively, while the average exchange rate at the investors’ and
exporters’ window depreciated to N360.80/US$ in the review
quarter. The external reserves increased by 1.6 per cent to US$47.50
billion as at June 22, 2018.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 98.07 mbd
and 98.75 mbd, respectively, in the second quarter of 2018. Nigeria’s
crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids,
was estimated at an average of 1.85 million barrels per day (mbd)
or 168.35 million barrels (mb) in the review quarter. The average
price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), was
US$75.43 per barrel, compared with US$68.55 per barrel in the first
quarter of 2018.
Major international developments of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: the regional meeting of
the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Experts on the choice of a
single monetary policy framework and exchange rate regime for the
future of ECOWAS monetary zone held in Abuja, Nigeria from June
4-7, 2018; and the 51st Session of the Economic Commission for Africa
and the Annual Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning
and Economic Development was held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
from May 11-15, 2018. The Session was preceded by a meeting of
the Committee of Experts held from May 11-12, 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
Over the level at end-March 2018, broad money supply (M2), grew
by 3.6 per cent, at end-May 2018, reflecting, wholly, the respective
increase of 17.2 per cent and 7.2 per cent in foreign assets (net) and
other assets (net) of the banking system. Narrow money supply (M1)
rose by 2.9 per cent due to the increase in demand deposits.
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while the lending
rates trended downward in the review quarter. The value of money
market assets outstanding fell below the level in the preceding
quarter. Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were
generally bearish in the second quarter of 2018.
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
Provisional data indicated that growth in money supply was
moderate at the end of the review period. Relative to the
level at end-March 2018, broad measure of money supply,
(M2), grew by 3.6 per cent to N25,169.01 billion at end-May
2018, compared with the growth of 1.3 per cent at end-March
2018. This, however, contrasted with the decline of 0.7 per
cent at the end of the corresponding period of 2017. The
development reflected the respective increase of 17.2 per
cent and 7.2 per cent in foreign assets (net) and other assets
(net) of the banking system, which more than offset the
decline of 2.1 per cent in domestic credit (net). Similarly,
narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.9 per cent, reflecting
wholly the growth of 4.4 per cent in its demand deposits
component.
Over the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply,
(M2), grew by 4.9 per cent at end-May 2018, compared with
the growth of 1.3 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter. It, however, contrasted with the decline of 6.5 per
cent at the end of the corresponding period of 2017. The
development reflected the increase of 23.5 per cent in foreign
assets (net) of the banking system, which more than offset the
decline of 0.6 and 13.0 per cent in domestic credit (net) and
other assets (net), respectively. Similarly, relative to the level at
end-December 2017, narrow money supply (M1) grew by 1.7
per cent, reflecting the growth of 4.3 per cent in its demand
deposits component.

2 All monetary aggregate numbers are provisional and subject to revision
Grwoth in key
monetary aggregates
were moderate in the
review period.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Over the level at end-March 2018, quasi-money rose by 4.1
per cent to N13,942.70 billion in the review period, compared
with the increase of 3.3 per cent at end of the preceding
quarter, but in contrast to the decline of 3.0 per cent at the
end of the corresponding period of 2017. The development
relative tp the preceding quarter was due to increase in time
and savings deposits of banks.
Relative to the level at end-December 2017, quasi-money
grew by 7.5 per cent at end-May 2018, compared with the
increase of 3.2 per cent at end of the preceding quarter, but
was in contrast to the decline of 4.3 per cent at the end of the
corresponding period of 2017. The development was due to
the increase in time and savings deposits of banks (Figure 1,
Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)3

Source: CBN
Relative to the level at end-March 2018, aggregate credit to
the domestic economy, at N25,716.59 billion, fell by 2.1 per
cent at end-May 2018, but contrasted with the growth of 1.6
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development reflected the respective decline of 8.2 and 1.1

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).

-15
-10
-5

-15
-10
-5

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
May-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)


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Economic Report Second Quarter

per cent in claims on the Federal Government (net) and the
private sector.
Over the level at end-December 2017, aggregate credit to
the domestic economy fell by 0.6 per cent, compared with
the decline of 0.1 per cent at the end of the corresponding
period of 2017, but was in contrast to the growth of 1.6 per
cent at end-March 2018. The development relative to the
preceding quarter reflected the respective decline of 1.8 per
cent and 0.4 per cent in claims on the Federal Government
(net) and private sector.
Over the level at end-March 2018, net claims on the Federal
Government fell by 8.2 per cent to N3,509.84 billion at endMay 2018, in contrast to the growth of 7.0 per cent at endMarch 2018. The development was due, wholly, to the
decline in the banking system‟s holding of Government
Securities. Over the level at end-December 2017, net claims
on the Federal Government fell by 1.8 per cent at end-May
2018, compared with the decline of 1.3 per cent at the end of
the corresponding period of 2017, but was in contrast to the
growth of 7.0 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was due, wholly, to the decline in the
banking system‟s holding of Government securities.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system‟s credit to the
private sector fell by 1.1 per cent to N22,206.74 billion at endMay 2018, in contrast to the growth of 0.7 per cent at the
preceding period. The decline in credit to the private sector
was due to the 0.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent fall in claims on
the core private sector and state and local governments,
respectively. Over the level at end-December 2017, credit to
the private sector fell by 0.4 per cent, in contrast to the growth
of 0.7 per cent and 0.2 per cent at end-March 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The decline in
credit to the private sector was due, wholly, to the 1.3 per
cent fall in claims on the core private sector (Figure 2,Table 1).


Banking system’s
credit to the Federal
Government fell in the
review period.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy4

Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system grew by 17.2 per
cent to N18,297.14 billion at end-May 2018, compared with
the respective growth of 5.4 per cent and 7.1 per cent at the
end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2017. The development was attributed, wholly, to the 17.8
per cent increase in CBN‟s foreign asset holdings. Over the
level at end-December 2017, foreign assets (net) of the
banking system grew by 23.5 per cent at the end of the
review period, compared with the growth of 5.4 per cent at
the end of the preceding period, but in contrast to the
decline of 6.7 per cent at the end of the corresponding period
of 2017. This reflected the 24.3 per cent increase in CBN‟s
foreign asset holdings.
Relative to the level at end-March 2018, other assets (net) of
the banking system stood at negative N18,844.71 billion at
end-May 2018. This represented an increase of 7.2 per cent,
compared with the respective growth of 5.5 per cent and 2.7
per cent at end-March 2018 and the corresponding period of
2017. The development was attributed to the fall in
unclassified assets of the DMB‟s. Over the level at end-
December 2017, other assets (net) of the banking system fell
by 13.0 per cent, compared with the respective decline of 5.5
per cent and 7.4 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017.

4 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP, CCG


-30
-20
-10

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
May-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
Foreign assets (net) of
the banking system
grew at the end of the
review period.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
May-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the
CBN

At N1,930.70 billion, currency-in-circulation (CIC), at end-May
2018 fell by 5.3 per cent, compared with the decline of 5.5 per
cent at end-March 2018. The development relative to the
preceding quarter reflected, mainly, the contraction in its
currency outside banks component.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N13,601.33 billion at
end-May 2018, indicating a 0.11 per cent increase above the
level at end-March 2018. The development was as a result of
the rise in the deposits of the private sector and the banks,
which more than offset the fall in Federal Government‟s
deposit. Of the total deposits at the CBN, the shares of the
Federal Government, banks and private sector deposits were
N5,818.88 billion (42.8 per cent), N4,836.96 billion (35.6 per
cent) and N2,945.50 billion (21.6 per cent), respectively.
Reserve money rose by 4.5 per cent to N6,767.65 billion at
end-May 2018, compared with the growth of 4.2 per cent at
end-March 2018. The development reflected the increase in
total bank reserves.
2.3
Money Market Developments
Developments in the money market were mixed in the second
quarter of 2018. Liquidity was buoyed by inflow from fiscal
injections, maturing bills, Federal Government (FGN) Bonds,
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
bills. Withdrawals arising from CBN interventions through Open
The financial market
was relatively stable
during the review
period .

Reserve money (RM)
rose at the end of the
review period.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Market Operations (OMO), however, moderated liquidity. In
addition, settlement for the sales of Government securities
and foreign exchange also impacted on market liquidity.
Overall, banks continued to access the intra-day and
standing facilities window to meet their short-term liquidity
needs during the review quarter.
Total value of money market assets outstanding at the end of
the second quarter of 2018 was N11,690.29 billion, showing a
decline of 3.35 per cent, compared with 0.22 per cent fall, at
the end of the first quarter of 2018. The development was
attributed to the 10.84 per cent and 0.48 per cent fall in
treasury bills and FGN Bonds outstanding, respectively, during
the review quarter.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Developments in banks‟ deposit rates were mixed, while
lending rates trended upward in the second quarter of 2018.
The average savings rate fell marginally by 0.01 percentage
point to 4.07 per cent at the end of the review quarter. The
average term deposit rate also fell by 2.36 percentage points
to 5.98 per cent at end-June 2018. All other deposit rates of
various maturities, however, rose from a range of 3.45 – 10.53
per cent at end-March 2018 to a range of 3.75 – 10.79 per
cent at end-June 2018.
The average prime and maximum lending rates declined by
0.01 percentage point and 0.06 percentage point to 17.30 per
cent and 31.54 per cent, respectively, at end-June 2018.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposit and maximum lending rates widened by 2.30
percentage points to 25.57 percentage points, at the end of
the review quarter. The spread between the average savings
and the maximum lending rates, however, narrowed by 0.06
percentage point to 27.47 percentage points at end-June
2018. With the headline inflation estimated at 11.06 per cent
at end-June 2018, all deposit rates were negative in real terms,
while lending rates were positive in real terms.
At the inter-bank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 18.98 per cent at end-March
2018, fell by 4.25 percentage points to 14.73 per cent at endJune 2018. Similarly, the Nigeria inter-bank offered rate
Inter-bank call rate
fell in Q2 2018.

Banks’ lending rates
trended upward, while
deposit rates exhibited
mixed developments


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Economic Report Second Quarter

(NIBOR) for the 30-day tenor fell from 15.19 per cent in the
preceding quarter to 13.04 per cent at end-June 2018. Also,
the weighted average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB)
segment fell by 2.56 percentage points to 11.88 per cent at
the end of the review quarter (Figure 3, Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Source: CBN
Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by banks amounted
to N6.29 billion in the second quarter, compared with N1.64
billion at end-March 2018. The development was due to the
increase in investment in CP by the merchant banks during
the review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.05 per cent of the
total value of money market assets outstanding during the
review period, compared with 0.01 per cent in the preceding
quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
Bankers‟ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N3.31 billion
in the second quarter of 2018, compared with N11.57 billion at
the end of the first quarter of 2018. The development was

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)
Banks’ holdings of
BAs decreased in
Q2 of 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

attributed to decreased investment in BAs by commercial
banks
during
the
review
quarter.
Consequently,
BAs
accounted for 0.03 per cent of the total value of money
market assets outstanding at end-June 2018, compared with
0.10 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
The Bank sustained its intervention through direct Open Market
Operation (OMO) auction during the review quarter. The
tenors to maturity of the instruments ranged from 87 days to
245 days. Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted
were N6,030.00 billion, N6,379.79 billion, and N4,584.19 billion,
respectively. The bid rates ranged from 10.3100 per cent to
14.3000 per cent, while the stop rates ranged from 12.6000 per
cent to 14.5500 per cent. Repayment of matured CBN bills
was N4,466.75 billion, translating to a net withdrawal of N81.44
billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364day tenors, amounting to N5,80.09 billion, N1,536.46 billion and
N553.43 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, at the auctions held in the second quarter of
2018, on behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total
subscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were N96.83
billion and N44.87 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged
from 9.0000 per cent to 13.0000 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 10.0000 per cent to 11.7500 per cent.
For the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were
N308.02 billion and N206.28 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 10.3000 to 14.1500 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 10.3000 to 12.7000 per cent. Total subscription
and allotment at the 364-day auction were N547.92 billion and
N553.43 billion, respectively. The bill rates ranged from 10.0000
to 18.6000 per cent, while stop rates ranged from 10.7000 to
13.0422 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was 1.05.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
Tranches of the 5- 10- and 20-year FGN Bonds were reopened for sale in the second quarter of 2018. The term to
maturity of the bonds ranged from 4 years, 10 months to 9
years, 10 months. Total amount offered, subscribed to and
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were reopened for sale
in the Q2 of 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

allotted were N220.00 billion, N419.02 billion and N171.67
billion, respectively. The bid rates on all tenors ranged from
11.5000 to 15.1949 per cent, while the marginal rates were
from 12.7500 to 13.8100 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was
1.28, while the auction was oversubscribed by 90.5 per cent.
Allotment on non-competitive basis amounted to N86.50
billion.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The banks continued to access the CBN‟s Standing Facilities
window to square up their positions either by borrowing from
the standing lending facility (SLF) window or depositing excess
reserves at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window of the
CBN at the end of each business day. Total request for the
Standing Lending Facility (SLF) inclusive of Intra-day lending
facilities (ILF) that was converted to overnight repo during the
review quarter stood at N3,960.24 billion, compared with
N2,805.47 billion in the preceding quarter. Daily average
transaction value amounted to N70.72 billion in 56 transactiondays, with total interest earned at N3.07 billion.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N5,910.29 billion, with daily average of N103.69
billion, compared with N4,572.62 billion, in the first quarter of
2018. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quater amounted
to N2.25 billion, compared with N1.67 billion in the preceding
quarter.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of the commercial banks stood
at N36,062.68 billion at end-May 2018, representing 1.1 per
cent increase over the level at end-March 2018. The funds
were sourced from the realisation of foreign assests and
redemption of claims on the Central Government as well as
mobilisation of demand deposits and unclassified liabilities.
The funds were used, mainly, for accretion to reserves,
acquisition of unclassified assets and reduction of credit from
the central bank.
At N19,104.16 billion, banks‟ credit to the domestic economy,
at end-May 2018 fell by 1.9 per cent below the level at endMarch 2018. The development reflected, the decline in claims
on both the Federal Government and the private sector in the


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Economic Report Second Quarter

review period.
Total specified liquid assets of the banks was N12,047.23 billion
at end-May 2018, representing 60.1 per cent of the total
current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio was 5.9
percentage points and 30.1 percentage points above the
levels at end-March 2018 and the stipulated minimum ratio of
30.0 per cent, respectively. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 63.39
per cent, was 4.04 and 16.61 percentage points below the
levels at end-March 2018 and the prescribed maximum of
80.0 per cent, respectively.
2.5
Capital Market Developments
2.5.1
Secondary Market
Despite the sustained optimism in the economy, growing
insecurity
impacted
negatively
on
the
investment
environment in the review period. In addition, rising interest
rates in the United States was a major threat to the retention
of particularly, portfolio investments, as investors contemplate
diversification of their portfolios to seek higher returns. These
factors combined to weaken investors‟ confidence in the
market. Consequently, developments in the Nigerian capital
market were generally bearish in the second quarter of 2018.
The aggregate volume and value of traded securities fell by
47.3 per cent and 18.3 per cent to 23.1 billion shares and
N359.2 billion, respectively, in 277,811 deals, compared with
43.8 billion shares and N439.7 billion, traded in 384,472 deals in
the first quarter of 2018.
The Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the
activity chart with 16.0 billion shares, valued at N178.9 billion
traded in 136,315 deals, compared with 29.8 billion shares,
valued at N260.7 billion, traded in 237,028 deals in the first
quarter of 2018. This constituted 69.3 per cent and 49.8 per
cent of the total turnover volume and value of traded
securities, respectively, compared with 29.8 billion shares,
valued at N260.7 billion, traded in 237,028 deals in first quarter
of 2018. The banking sub-sector (measured by volume) was
the most active in the review quarter.


Liquidity ratio was
above the prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit ratio
was below the
prescribed maximum
in May of 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Volume (Billion)


Value (N Billion)

Source: NSE
2.5.2
New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings
There was one (1) new supplementary equity in the second
quarter of 2018.
Table 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing
1 Flour Mills of Nigeria PLC
1,476,142,418 Ordinary shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary
Source: NSE

2.5.3
Market Capitalisation
Notwithstanding the sustained improvement in the macroeconomic conditions, volatility was heightened in the market
due to increased activities leading to the 2019 general
elections.
The
development
negatively
impacted
the
performance of quoted securities on the Nigeria Stock
Exchange in the review period. The aggregate market
capitalisation for all listed securities (Equities and Debts) fell by
3.6 per cent to N24.0 trillion at end-June, 2018 from N24.9
trillion at end-March 2018. Similarly, market capitalisation for
the equities segment fell by 6.7 per cent to N13.9 trillion and

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

constituted
57.9
per
cent
of
the
aggregate
market
capitalisation, compared with N15.0 trillion and 59.8 per cent
at end-March 2018.
2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
Developments in the major and sectoral indices showed poor
performance of quoted stocks on the Exchange in the review
period. The All-Share Index fell by 7.8 per cent to close at
38,278.55 at end-June 2018 below the level at end-March
2018. Similarly, all sectoral indices fell below the levels in the
first quarter of 2018. The NSE-Banking, NSE-Industrial Goods,
NSE-Premium and NSE-Oil and Gas indices declined the most
at 8.6, 8.4, 7.8 and 6.8 per cent to 476.05, 2,008.70, 2,720.42
and 323.22, respectively, at end-June 2018 below the levels at
end-March 2018. Also, the NSE-Pension, NSE-Consumer
Goods, NSE-AseM, NSE-Lotus and NSE-Insurance indices fell by
5.9, 5.2, 3.9, 2.7 and 0.43 per cent to 1,490.07, 927.72, 949.59,
2,626.59 and 150.44, respectively, at end-June 2018 below the
levels at end-March 2018.
Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: NSE
Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Market Capitalization (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
29,597.79

28,335.40

26,874.62

25,516.34

33,117.48

35,439.98

38,243.19

41,504.51

38,278.55

Source: NSE

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations5
Federally collected revenue in the second quarter of 2018 fell
below the provisional quarterly budget estimate by 13.6 per
cent, but rose above the receipt in the preceding quarter by
11.3 per cent. Federal Government provisional retained
revenue for the review quarter was N896.74 billion, while total
estimated expenditure amounted to N988.91 billion, resulting
in an estimated deficit of N92.17 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
At N2,318.25 billion, federally-collected revenue in the second
quarter of 2018, was lower than the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate of N2,684.28 billion by 13.6 per cent. It,
however, rose above the receipts in the preceding quarter by
11.3 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue
(gross) relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate
was attributed to the shortfall in receipts from non-oil revenue
(Figure 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
1,546.71

2,315.84

2,008.87

2,083.66

2,318.25

Oil Revenue
795.55

1,270.62

1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

Non-Oil Revenue
751.17

1,045.22

782.83

795.60

920.19

Source:Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional


5 All figures on government revenue and expenditure are provisional and subject to changes\

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
N'Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross
federally
collected revenue
was
below
the
budget
estimate
by 13.6 per cent.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

At N1,398.06 billion or 60.3 per cent of the total revenue, gross
oil receipt was higher than the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate by 3.6 per cent. It also exceeded receipts in the
preceding quarter by 8.5 per cent. The increase in oil revenue
relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was
attributed, wholly, to improved receipts from domestic crude
oil and gas sales (Figure 7, Table 7).

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Oil Revenue Gross
795.55

1,270.62

1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

Crude oil/Gas Sales
111.84

345.53

236.69

98.21

109.32

PPT/Royalties
320.49

489.41

666.10

926.33

841.03

Others
363.22

435.69

323.24

263.51

447.71


Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
Non-oil revenue, at N920.19 billion or 39.7 per cent of total,
was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of
N1,335.41 billion by 31.1 per cent, but exceeded the level in
the preceding quarter by 15.7 per cent. The lower non-oil
revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate, was due to the shortfall in receipts from PPT/Royalties
and „others‟ (Figure 8, Table 8).


Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
N'Billion
Crude oil/Gas Sales
PPT/Royalties
Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components

Table 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Non-Oil Revenue
751.17

1,045.22

782.83

795.60

920.19

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
243.31

248.89

253.46

277.26

264.00

Companies Income Tax
206.38

543.40

297.56

256.86

315.14

Customs & Excise Duties
150.67

164.15

169.05

158.42

169.60

Others/1
150.81

88.78

62.76

103.06

171.45

1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies
(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of finance
* All figures are provisional

After statutory deductions and transfers of N287.28 billion and
N424.89 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,606.08 billion was
retained in the Federation Account. Of this amount, the
Federal Government received N767.48 billion, while state and
local governments received N389.27 billion and N300.11
billion, respectively. The balance of N149.22 billion was
transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among
the oil-producing states.
In addition, the Federal Government received N38.02 billion,
while the state and local governments received N126.72
billion and N88.70 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool
Account.

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
N'Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Others
The sum of N 1,606.08
billion
of
the
gross
federally-collected
revenue was distributed
among the three tiers of
government
and
the
13.0% Derivation Fund
for oil producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Table 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (Naira Billion)*
Q2 2017 Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Total Deductions 1/
318.36

523.70

376.63

117.24

287.28

Oil Revenue Deductions

Non-Oil Revenue Deductions

Total Transfers
384.39

327.72

306.08

369.52

424.89

Federal Govt. Ind. Revenue

VAT Pool Account

Others 2/

1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions
2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF
Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the
three tiers of government in the second quarter of 2018
amounted
to
N1,933.32
billion,
compared
with
the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,350.72 billion.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government

3.2.1
The Federal Government
Provisional data on Federal Government finances indicated
that the Federal Government retained revenue in the second
quarter of 2018 amounted to N896.74 billion. This was below
both the proportionate quarterly budget estimate and the
receipt in the preceding quarter by 33.5 and 0.7 per cent,
respectively. Of the total revenue, Federation Account
accounted for 85.6 per cent, while Federal Government
Independent Revenue, VAT, Exchange Gain and NNPC
Refund accounted for 6.4, 4.2, 3.2 and 0.6 per cent,
respectively (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue

Federation Acct.
85.6%
VAT Pool Acct.
4.2%
FGN Ind. Rev.
6.4%
Exchange Gain
3.2%
NNPC Refund
0.6%
At N896.74 billion,
the estimated FGN
retained
revenue
was lower than the
proportionate
quarterly budget
estimate by 33.5 per
cent.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Table 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Retained Revenue
1,021.94

990.21

1,265.75

902.64

896.74

Expenditure
1,361.83

1,652.00

1,956.77

1,599.76

988.91

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(57.70)

(307.49)

(192.05)

(372.30)

41.16

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(36.29)

(48.58)

(272.74)

86.88

364.36

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(339.89)

(661.79)

(691.02)

(697.11)

(92.17)

Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General
of the Federation
*All figures are provisional
At N988.91 billion, the estimated Federal Government
expenditure for the second quarter of 2018 was below both
the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N1,937.98
billion and the level in the preceding quarter by 49.0 per cent
and 38.2 per cent, respectively. A breakdown of the total
expenditure
showed
that
the
recurrent
component
accounted for 86.5 per cent, while capital and statutory
transfers accounted for 8.1 and 5.4 per cent, repectively. A
further breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that
the non-debt component accounted for 46.6 per cent, while
debt service payments was 53.4 per cent (Figure 10).
Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure

Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N92.17 billion, compared with the
proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N589.19 billion.


Recurrent
86.5%
Capital
8.1%
Transfers
5.4%
Fiscal operations of
the FG resulted in
an estimated deficit
of N92.17 billion in
Q2 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
At N691.96 billion, the total allocation to state governments
from the Federation Account, including the 13.0% Derivation
Fund and the VAT Pool Account was lower than the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 18.5 per cent. A
breakdown showed that receipts from the Federation
Account was N565.24 billion (81.7%), while the share from VAT
pool account stood at N126.72 billion (18.3%). The receipts
from both the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below
the proportionate budget estimate by 10.6 and 41.3 per cent,
respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts in the second quarter of 2018 stood at
N402.04 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate by 21.6 per cent. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N313.34 billion
(77.9%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N88.70 billion
(22.1%).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
As a result of the general improvement in rainfall during the review
quarter, agricultural activities in the Southern states were dominated
by harvesting and replanting of cereals and tuber crops, while
farmers in the North concentrated on planting of cereals and
leguminous crops. The end-period inflation, on year-on-year and 12month moving average bases for the second quarter of 2018 were
estimated at 11.06 per cent and 14.40 per cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
There was improved rainfall in the Southern and Northern
parts of the country during the second quarter of 2018. States
such as Ogun, Osun, Imo, Abia, Plateau, Rivers, Kaduna,
Benue and Delta experienced severe to moderate rainfall in
the review quarter. Consequently, harvesting and replanting
of maize, yam, rice and cassava were the predominant
agricultural activities in the Southern states, while farmers in
the Northern part of the country concentrated on planting of
cereals and leguminous crops. In the livestock sector, poultry
farmers continued breeding birds, while cattle rearers moved
northwards due to more than normal rainfall in the South. A
few cases of farmer/herder clashes were recorded thereby,
impacting negatively on the agricultural sector.
As part of the effort to manage the farmers/herdsmen clashes,
which adversely affected the agricultural sector, the Federal
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FEMARD)
presented the National Livestock Transformation Plan (2018–
2027) to the National Economic Council (NEC) for approval.
The Plan is a multifaceted intervention arrangement, which
seeks to modernise livestock management towards the
achievement of improved productivity and food security in
Nigeria.
4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
A total of N928.92 million was guaranteed to 5,470 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the second quarter of 2018. The amount represented an
increase of 12.5 per cent above the level in the preceding
quarter, but was a 33.5 per cent decline below the level in the
corresponding period of 2017. Sub-sectoral analysis showed
that: food crops obtained the largest share of N552.07 million
(59.4 per cent), guaranteed to 3,612 beneficiaries; livestock,


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

N156.45
million
(16.8
per
cent)
guaranteed
to

beneficiaries; and cash crop, N106.09 million (11.4 per cent),
guaranteed to 686 beneficiaries. Fisheries had N70.39 million
(7.6 per cent) guaranteed to 232 beneficiaries; the mixed
crop sub-sector, N29.48 million (3.2 per cent), guaranteed to
211 beneficiaries; and “others”, N14.44 million (1.6 per cent),
guaranteed to 72 beneficiaries.
Analysis by state showed that 34 states and the Federal
Capital Territory benefited from the Scheme with the highest
and lowest sums of N132.14 million (14.2 per cent) and N0.65
million (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to Ogun and Bayelsa states,
respectively.
4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
At end-May 2018, total amount released by the CBN under
the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) from
inception to the participating banks for disbursement stood at
N557.40 billion for 555 projects. The projects included sixty-nine
(69) state government projects under CACS (Table 11).


Source: CBN
Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amt Disbursed (N billion)
Number of Projects/State Governments

Access Bank Plc
36.66

Citibank Plc
3.00

Diamond Baqnk Plc
4.85

ECOBANK
6.38

FCMB Plc.
15.43

Fidelity Bank Plc
21.67

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
42.89

GTBank Plc
39.70

Heritage Bank Plc
6.81

Keystone Bank
14.05

Jaiz Bank Plc
0.00

Skye Bank Plc
13.77

Stanbic IBTC Bank
27.66

Sterling Bank Plc
71.67

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
28.74

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
74.06

Unity Bank Plc
25.18

Wema Bank
2.89

Zenith Bank
120.16

Suntrust Bank Ltd
1.85

TOTAL
557.40

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

4.4
Industrial Production6
Activities in the industrial sector during the second quarter of
2018 showed improvement over the level in the preceding
quarter. The growth was driven by sustained increase in output
as a result of increase in new orders due to expectation of
continued economic upturn. Thus, industrial production in the
review quarter indicated a marginal improvement over the
level in the preceding quarter. At 110.4 (2010=100), estimated
index of industrial production in the review quarter, rose by 0.6
per cent above the level in the preceding quarter. The
increase was attributed to improved activities in the
manufacturing and electricity subsectors.
The estimated index of manufacturing production in the
second quarter of 2018, at 183.1 (2010=100), showed a
marginal increase of 0.4 per cent, compared with the level in
the preceding quarter. The improvement was due to
continued expansion in new orders. Capacity utilisation in the
sub-sector was maintained at 54.8 per cent, same as in the
preceding quarter (Figure11).
Figure11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Source: Staff Estimate

The estimated index of mining production in the second
quarter of 2018, at 79.4 (1990=100), fell by 0.5 per cent, below
the level in the preceding quarter of 2018. The decline
reflected the fall in crude oil and gas production(Figure 12,
Table 12).

6 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Percent
Industrial activities rose
in the review quarter
due to increased new
orders on account of
expectated continued
economic upturn.
Industrial capacity
utilisation stood at
54.8 per cent in the
review quarter.
Average electricity
generation and
consumption
improved in the
review quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Electricity generation improved during the review quarter,
rising to a peak of 5,090 mw in April 26, 2018. At 3,962 mw/h,
average estimated electricity generation rose by 4.2 per cent,
compared with the level in the preceding quarter. The
increase was attributed to the relative system stability despite
a marginal dip in gas production.
At 3,320 mw/h, average estimated electricity consumption
increased by 3.2 per cent, compared with the level in the
preceding quarter. The increase in electricity consumption
was attributed to the rise in electricity generation.
Figure 12: Index of Industrial Production (2010=100) 7

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

Table 12: Index of Industrial Production and Myanufacturing Capacity Utilisation Rate

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Capacity Utilisation (%)

Source: Staff Estimate
4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria‟s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.85 mbd or 168.35 million barrels
(mb) during the review quarter. This represented a marginal
decline of 0.10 mbd or 5.1 per cent, compared with 1.95 mbd

7 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015
Crude oil and natural
gas production fell in the
second quarter of 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

or 175.50 million barrels in the preceding quarter. The
estimated decline in production was attributed, largely, to
aging pipelines and unplanned outages following the
shutdown of the Nembe Creek Trunk Line stream and the
Trans-Forcados pipeline.
Crude oil export averaged 1.40 mbd or 127.4 mb, representing
a decline of 6.7 per cent below 1.50 mbd or 135.00 mb in the
preceding quarter. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
consumption was 0.45 mbd or 40.95 million barrels during the
period under review.
The average spot price of Nigeria‟s reference crude oil, the
Bonny Light (37° API), rose to US$75.43/b in the second quarter
2018, from US$68.55/b in the preceding quarter. This
represented quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0 per cent. The
rise in oil price was attributed to the escalating geopolitical
tensions, involving the U.S. and Syria, and possible reaction by
Russia and Iran as well as uncertainties surrounding the
announced withdrawal by the U.S from the Iran deal. The UK
Brent at US$74.69/b and the Forcados at US$75.48/b exhibited
similar trend as the Bonny Light. The WTI, however, declined to
US$60.23/b from US$62.58/b in the first quarter of 2018.
The average price of OPEC basket of eleven selected crude
streams was US$71.88/b in the second quarter of 2018. This
represented an increase of 11.0 per cent and 48.3 per cent,
compared with US$64.76/b and US$48.47/b recorded in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively (Figure 13, Table 13).
Crude oil export
fell in Q2 2018.
With the exception of the
WTI, the average prices
of all other crude oil
variants rose in the
international crude oil
market in Q2 2018,.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters

4.6
Consumer Prices8
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at endJune 2018, was estimated at 260.8 (November 2009=100),
indicating a 3.3 per cent and 11.4 per cent increase over the
levels in the first quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period
of 2017, respectively. The development was attributed to
projected increase in both food and non-food categories.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) was 260.6 at
end-May 2018, representing 1.13 per cent and 12.09 per cent
increase, compared with the levels at end-April 2018 and at
end-May 2017, respectively. The rural all-items CPI (November
2009=100), was 254.7 at end-May 2018, representing 1.07 per
cent and 11.22 per cent increase, compared with the levels at
end-April 2018 and the corresponding period, respectively
(Figure 14, Table 14).

8 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the
2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH October 2010. All values are staff estmates.

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket
The general price level
increased in Q2 2018
over the level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent in
the CPI basket) was estimated at 278.9, compared with 267.9
and 246.3, at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The estimated
price increase was attributed to distribution constraints and
high transportation cost.
Figure 14: Consumer Price Index

Source: NBS

Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
May-18
Composite
201.7


Urban

Rural


Inflationary pressures were expected to decline due to
anticipated decline in food inflation in the review quarter.
Consequently, headline inflation was estmated to decline to
11.06 per cent in June 2018, compared with the 11.61 and
16.10
per
cent
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. Inflation was
projected to reflect the expected rise in price of selected
food items, fuel and lubricants for personal transport
equipment and solid fuels, among others.
The Twelve-Month Moving Average (12MMA) inflation for June
2018 was estimated at 14.40 per cent, compared with 14.79
per cent and 17.58 per cent in the preceding quarter and
corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 15, Table
15).

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
May-18
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural
The headline inflation
(y-o-y) was estimated
at 11.06 per cent in
Q2 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure 15: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS
Table 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year

Source: NBS


Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Second Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments9
Foreign exchange inflow through the CBN in the second quarter of
2018 fell by 10.5 per cent, while outflow rose by 22.9 per cent,
relative to the levels in the first quarter of 2018. Total non-oil export
receipts rose by 35.2 per cent above the level at end-March 2018.
The average exchange rate at the investors’ and exporters’ window,
the BDC and the inter-bank segment of the foreign exchange
market
were
N360.80/US$,
N361.84/US$
and
N305.77/US$,
respectively, in the review quarter. At US$47.50 billion, the gross
external reserves rose by 1.6 per cent, compared with the level at
end-March 2018 .
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Despite the decline of domestic crude oil production to 1.89
million barrels per day in the second quarter, the external
sector experienced relative stability due to the rising price of
crude oil in the international market. The fall in production was
attributed to damage of a pipeline belonging to Forcados.
Consequently, aggregate foreign exchange inflow through
the CBN amounted to US$12.68 billion, indicating a 10.5 per
cent decline below the level in the preceding quarter. It,
however, showed an increase of 35.5 per cent, over the level
in the corresponding period of 2017. The decline, relative to
the preceding quarter‟s level, reflected the fall in inflow from
oil and non-oil sources.
Aggregate outflow through the CBN amounted to US$11.86
billion, above US$9.65 billion and US$ 9.05 billion in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. This showed an increase of 22.9 per cent and
31.0 per cent, respectively. The increase in outflow relative to
the preceding quarter was attributed to the rise in inter-bank
utilisation, external debt service, drawings on L/Cs and third
party MDA transfers.
Overall, a net inflow of US$0.82 billion wa recorded through
the Bank, compared with US$4.51 billion and US$0.31 billion in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively (Figure 16, Table 16).

9 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign
exchange utilisation are provisional and subject to change
Foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN
declined , while outflow
rose and resulted in a
net inflow of US$0.82
billion in Q2 of 2018.


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Figure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Source: CBN
Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Inflow
5,613.01

6,726.01

6,597.73

9,355.29

11,984.05

14,708.45

14,159.09

12,676.96

Outflow
7,912.02

4,649.85

3,646.89

9,048.62

9,343.06

8,444.27

9,652.66

11,855.75

Netflow
(2,299.01)

2,076.16

2,950.84

306.67

2,640.99

6,264.18

4,506.43

821.21


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy
amounted to US$31.55 billion at end-June 2018, indicating
increase of 3.0 per cent and 57.5 per cent, relative to the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2017, respectively. The development was as a result of,
mainly, the 14.5 per cent increase in inflow through
autonomous sources. Oil sector receipts, which accounted for
10.2 per cent of the total, was US$3.22 billion, compared with
US$3.37 billion and US$2.10 billion in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$9.46 billion (30.0 per cent of
the total), fell by 12.3 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter, but rose by 30.3 per cent, over the level at
end-June 2017. Autonomous inflow, at US$18.87 billion, rose by
14.5 per cent and 76.7 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. Inflow from autonomous sources accounted for
59.8 per cent of the total.
-4,000
-2,000


Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous inflow
into the economy rose
by 14.5 per cent in Q2
2018 .


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Aggregate foreign exchange outflow from the economy, at
US$12.69 billion, rose by 18.3 per cent and 33.7 per cent,
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
reflected, mainly, the rising outflow through the Bank. Thus,
foreign exchange flows through the economy resulted in a net
inflow of US$18.86 billion in the review quarter, compared with
US$19.91billion and US$10.54 billion in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks rose
by 35.2 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter to
US$1.21 billion in the review quarter. The development was
due, mainly, to the respective increase of 84.9 per cent, 56.2
per cent and 6.7 per cent in earnings from manufactured
products, minerals and agricultural sub-sectors. A breakdown
by sectors showed that proceeds were: minerals, (US$522.33
million;
manufactured
products,
(US$282.10
million);
agricultural sector, (US$ 216.45 million); industrial sector,
(US$167.31million); transport (US$82.65 million); and food
products, (US$21.87 million).
The percentage shares of minerals, manufactured products,
food products, agricultural products and industrial sector in
the total non-oil export proceeds were 43.2 per cent, 23.3 per
cent, 17.9 per cent, 13.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Provisional data showed that sectoral foreign exchange
utilisation amounted to US$9.23 billion in the second quarter of
2018, indicating a 22.0 per cent increase above the level in
the preceding quarter. The invisible sector accounted for the
bulk (57.1%) of total foreign exchange disbursed in the review
quarter, followed by the industrial sector (18.1%). Others were:
manufactured products, 10.4 per cent; minerals and oil, 6.7
per cent; food products, 5.2 per cent; transport, 1.6 per cent;
and agricultural sector, 0.9 per cent (Figure17).
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed in Q2 2018.
Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
rose in Q2 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Figure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Source: CBN

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$7.90 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised
dealers in the second quarter of 2018. This represented a 28.0
per cent decline below the level in the preceding quarter, but
was a 3.4 per cent increase relative to the level in the
corresponding period of 2017. The development, relative to
the preceding quarter, was attributed to significant decline in
maturing forwards transactions and foreign exchange sales to
BDCs in the review quarter.
Of the total, foreign exchange forwards disbursed at maturity
amounted to US$3.47 billion or 44.0 per cent. Inter-bank sales,
BDC sales and swap transactions were US$1.88 billion (23.8 per
cent), US$1.50 billion (19.0 per cent) and US$1.04 billion (13.2
per cent) (Figure 18, Table 17).


Percent of Total
Q2-18
Q1-18
Q4-17
Supply for foreign
exchange by
authorized dealers fell
in Q2 2018.


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Figure 18: Supply of Foreign Exchange


Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps


Source: CBN

Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Forward

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)

Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the inter-bank and
the BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the
review quarter. Consequently, the average exchange rate of
the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the inter-bank segment
appreciated by 0.03 per cent to N305.77/US$, relative to the
level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, at the BDC segment,
the average exchange rate was N361.84/US$, representing 0.2
per cent and 4.8 per cent appreciation relative to the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. At the Investors‟ and Exporters‟ (I&E) Window,
the average exchange rate, however, depreciated by 0.1 per
cent, to N360.80/US$ at end-June 2018, relative to the level in
the preceding quarter.
Consequently, the premium between the average inter-bank
and BDC rates narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to 18.3 per
cent in the review quarter, from 18.5 per cent in the
preceeding quarter. Similarly, the spread between the
The average naira
exchange rate vis-à-vis
the US dollar
appreciated in all the
segments of the market
in Q2 2018.


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Economic Report Second Quarter

average exchange rates at the Investors‟ and Exporters‟
window and the BDC segment narrowed further to 1.0 per
cent, from 2.5 per cent in the preceding quarter (Figure 19,
Table 18).
Figure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Average I & E
Average BDC
N/US$

Source: CBN

Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Investors and Exporters Window
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
rDAS/Interbank
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN
Figure 20: Exchange Rate Premium

Source: CBN

Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Per cent
Interbank/BDC
Interbank/BDC


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5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves was US$47.50 billion as at June 22,
2018. This indicated an increase of 1.6 per cent over the level
in the first quarter of 2018. The external reserves position would
cover 10.3 months of import of goods and services or 16.5
months of import of goods only, based on the estimated value
of import for the fourth quarter of 2017. A breakdown of the
official external reserves by ownership showed that CBN
reserves stood at US$38.52 billion (81.1 per cent), Federal
Government reserves, US$6.36 billion (13.4 per cent) and the
Federation reserves, US$2.62 billion (5.5 per cent) (Figure 21,
Table 19).

Figure 21: Gross Official External Reserves


Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
US$ million

Table 19: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
External Reserves
29,994.4

30,341.0

33,159.7

39,353.5

46,730.5

47,504.3


Gross external
reserves rose during
the second quarter of
2018.


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6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic
Outlook for April 2018 estimated global growth at 3.5 per cent
(annualised) in the first quarter of 2018. This was attributed to
sustained favourable economic fundamentals, including
strong trade cycle and relatively friendly financial and
environmental conditions. In addition, improved private
consumption due to historically low unemployment rates in big
economies of Japan and the United States boosted growth.

The US economy expanded strongly in the first quarter of 2018,
on account of export and investment growth. Disappointing
growth was, however, recorded in the United Kingdom in the
first quarter of 2018 due, mainly, to the dismal performance of
the construction sector. Growth in the euro area weakened in
the first quarter of 2018, on account of declining industrial
production. Sluggish growth in the euro area, rise in geopolitical clamour in Russia and unsustainable economic
stimulus in some countries such as Romania and Turkey
threatened growth in Eastern Europe.
Developments in the emerging markets remained broadly
unchanged in the first quarter amidst the emergence of some
warning signs. Strong dynamics in China and India combined
to give a leap to growth in the Asian region. The fear that the
global export cycle already peaked coupled with a potential
rise in trade protectionism, however, affected an otherwise
optimistic growth trajectory in the region.
In sub-Saharan Africa, rising geopolitical risks and large
economic imbalance held back many countries in the
Middle-East, North Africa, and Sub-Sahara African regions
from taking advantage of recent improvement in commodity
prices, especially crude oil.
6.2 Global Inflation
Headline inflation continued to gain traction in the second
quarter of 2018 in most advanced economics, on account of
higher contributions from energy. According to the IMF‟s
World Economic Outlook (WEO), in April 2018, headline
inflation rates will continue to pick up as stronger demand put


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Economic Report Second Quarter

pressure on commodity prices and strengthening global
outlook narrows output gaps. Inflation rates in advanced
economies are projected to pick up to about 2.0 per cent in
2018, from 1.7 per cent in 2017, while headline inflation in
emerging market and developing economies is expected to
increase to 4.6 per cent in 2018, from 4.0 per cent in 2017.
Inflation in the US increased from 2.4 per cent in the first
quarter of 2018 to 2.8 per cent as at May 2018. In the euroarea, inflation also rose to 1.9 per cent in May 2018 from 1.3
per cent in the first quarter of 2018. Inflation, however,
moderated in the UK to 2.4 per cent in May 2018, from 2.5 per
cent in the first quarter of 2018.
In emerging markets and developing economies, inflation
rates mostly moderated in the second quarter of 2018, effects
of past currency depreciation continued to dissipate. Inflation
in China declined to 1.8 per cent in May 2018, from 2.1 per
cent in the first quarter of 2018. In Brazil, inflation ticked up to
2.86 per cent in May 2018, from 2.68 per cent in the first
quarter of 2018.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Global crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at
98.75 mbd, representing 1.1 per cent increase above the level
in the preceding quarter. World crude oil demand was
estimated at 98.07 mbd, indicating a 0.5 per cent increase
above the level in the first quarter of 2018.
The average price of OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) of 11
selected crude streams was US$71.88/b in the second quarter
of 2018, and represented 11.0 per cent increase over the
level in the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the bullish drawdowns on U.S. crude inventories,
sustained compliance with the OPEC production-cut deal and
uncertainties surrounding the announced withdrawal by the
U.S from the Iran deal.
6.4
International Financial Markets
Developments in the international stock markets were
generally mixed in the second quarter of 2018. In North
America, the United States S&P 500, Canadian S&P/TSX
Composite and Mexican Bolsa indices increased by 4.3, 7.0


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Economic Report Second Quarter

and 1.3 per cent, respectively. In South America, the
Columbian COLCAP index increased by 4.6 per cent, while
the Brazilian Bovespa Stock and Argentine Merval indices fell
by 17.2 and 2.7 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, the United Kingdom FTSE 100, France CAC 40 and
Germany DAX indices increased by 8.9, 4.3 and 4.0 per cent,
respectively.
In Asia, Japan‟s Nikkei 225 and India‟s BSE Sensex indices
increased by 5.0 and 8.3 per cent, respectively, while China‟s
Shanghai Stock Exchange-A index decreased by 8.8 per cent.
In the foreign exchange market, most of the selected
currencies depreciated against the US dollar due to a
combination of: significant improvement in the US economic
conditions; improving treasury yields, supported by US Fed
policy rate increase; and enhanced market optimism,
following
positive
outcomes
from
various
international
engagements despite the controversies. A summary of
developments in the foreign exchange market were as
follows:

Africa: The Nigerian naira, South African rand, Egyptian
pound and Ghanaian cedi depreciated by 0.05 per cent,
11.90 per cent, 1.28 per cent and 9.59 per cent,
respectively, while the Kenyan shilling appreciated by 0.25
per cent. Reduced demand for emerging market assets
due to rise in US treasury yields led to high volatility.


North America: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso
depreciated by 2.90 per cent and 9.12 per cent,
respectively. The Peso weakened due to increased
uncertainty, owing to stalled negotiations with the US on
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and
heightened political anxiety, as a result of the anticipated
victory of a nationalist candidate in the Mexican July 1,
2018 presidential elections.


South America: The Brazilian real, Argentine peso and
Colombian peso depreciated by 12.66 per cent, 25.48 per
cent and 4.09 per cent, respectively. The Argentine peso
recoded a significant depreciation as a result of


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Economic Report Second Quarter

continuing impact of macroeconomic imbalances arising
from large fiscal deficits and inadequate tax revenues.
Similar concerns over fiscal reforms and political upheavals
led to a large fall in the Brazilian real


Europe: The British pound, Euro and the Russian ruble
depreciated by 5.80 per cent, 5.24 per cent and 8.94 per
cent, respectively. The pound and euro slumped against
the US dollar on the back of better economic conditions in
the US, against weak investments and slowing productivity
in th UK, while the Euro area made a gradual recovery. The
ruble was impacted by announcements of aditional US
sanctions amid geopolitical tensions in the country.


Asia: The Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee
depreciated by 3.22 per cent, 3.31 per cent and 3.91 per
cent, respectively. Weakness in Asian currencies was
precipitated by escalating trade conflicts between the US
and China. The yuan, particularly is further threatened by
anticipated rules which may seek to prevent Chinese
companies from investing in US technology firms.
6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the
second quarter of 2018 included: the regional meeting of
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Experts on the choice of
a single monetary policy framework and exchange rate
regime for the future of ECOWAS monetary zone held in
Abuja, Nigeria from June 4-7, 2018. The purpose of the
meeting was to continue the process of finding a common
ground on the choice of a single exchange rate regime and
monetary policy framework for the prospective ECOWAS
monetary zone. Presentations were made at the meeting on
the following:

Review of Monetary Policy Objectives, Instruments, and
Frameworks;

Review of Exchange Rate Regimes;

Experience Sharing on Monetary, Exchange Rate and
Fiscal Policy Management Coordination by the BCEAO
(Central Bank of West African States), BCRG (Central


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Bank of the Republic of Guinea), Central Bank of Liberia,
Central Bank of Nigeria, Bank of Ghana, Bank of SierraLeone and Central Bank of the Gambia

Common Exchange Rate Regime For ECOWAS; and

Common Monetary Policy Framework For The Future
ECOWAS Monetary Union.
In addition, the 51st Session of the Economic Commission for
Africa and the Annual Conference of African Ministers of
Finance, Planning and Economic Development was held in
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from May 11-15, 2018. The Session was
preceded by a meeting of the Committee of Experts held
from May 11-12, 2018. The theme of the Conference was
“African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Fiscal
Space for Jobs and Economic Diversification”, which takes
into account the launch of the AfCFTA and the opportunities it
presents for economic growth and job creation in Africa. The
meeting endorsed the Economic Commission for Africa‟s
revised strategic framework for 2018-2019. The Framework
summarises the outcome of recent ECA reforms and
articulates the Commission‟s vision, overall objectives and
programmatic focus.


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APPENDIX TABLES


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Economic Report Second Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates


Source: CBN


1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


May-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
May-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank

DMBs

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
--
--
--
'--
'--
Central Bank
--
--
--
'--
'--
DMBs
--
--
'--
'--
'--
Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Banks' Deposit with CBN

N billion


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Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
May-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
May-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding December
Source: CBN
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.
*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


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Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Retained Revenue
1,021.94

990.21

1,265.75

902.64

896.74

Federation Account
408.63

716.95

637.73

758.47

767.48

VAT Pool Account
35.04

35.84

36.50

38.89

38.02

FGN Independent Revenue
97.49

35.76

0.92

20.25

57.42

Excess Crude
19.56

0.00
24.24

14.10

0.00
Others
461.22

201.65

566.36

70.93

33.82

Expenditure
1,361.83

1,652.00

1,956.77

1,599.76

988.91

Recurrent
1,079.65

1,297.70

1,457.80

1,274.94

855.57

Capital
163.80

236.90

384.92

262.77

79.96

Transfers
118.38

117.39

114.06

62.04

53.37

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(339.89)

(661.79)

(691.02)

(697.11)

(92.17)

*All figures are provisional and subject to changes