ECONOMIC REPORT
FIRST QUARTER 2014


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report First Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
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Economic Report First Quarter

Contents


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Text Tables

Appendix Tables


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Figures


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1.0 Summary
Broad money supply, (M2), recorded a modest growth of 0.2 per
cent at the end of the first quarter of 2014, compared with 1.2 per
cent at the end of the corresponding quarter of 2013. The
development reflected, largely, the 2.1 and 7.9 per cent increase in
domestic credit (net) and other assest (net) of the banking system,
which more than offset the significant decline of 10.6 percent in net
foreign asset of the banking system, during the review qaurter.
Available data indicated mixed developemnts in banks’ deposit
and lending rates in the first quarter of 2014. The spread between
the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates
narowed by 1.13 percentage points to17.17 per cent in the review
quarter. Similarly, the margin between the average savings deposit
and the maximum lending rates narowed by 0.04 percentage point
to 22.41 per cent. The weighted average inter-bank call rate rose by
0.25 percentage point to 11.24 per cent in the first quarter of 2014,
reflecting the liquidity condition in the inter-bank funds market.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets
outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2014 increased by 1.11
per cent to N6,909.33 billion, compared with the increase of 4.02 per
cent at the end of the preceding. The development was attributed,
laregely, to the 5.98 per cent increase in NTBs outstanding. Available
data indicated that developments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange
(NSE) were mixed during the first quarter of 2014.
Total federally-collected revenue
stood at
N2,414.49 billion,
representing an increase of 9.5 per cent above the receipt in the
fourth quarter of 2013, but was a decrease of 1.7 per cent below the
level in the corresponding quarter of 2013. At N1,808.86 billion, oil
receipts, which constituted 74.9 per cent of the total, exceeded the
receipt in the fourth quarter of 2013 by 17.6 per cent, but was 6.5 per
cent below the proportionate budget estimate. The increase in oil
receipts relative to the fourth quarter of 2013 was attributed, largely,
to the rise in the receipts from crude oil/gas exports and other oil
revenue during the review period.
Non-oil receipts, at N605.62 billion, was below the budget estimate
and receipts in the fourth quarter of 2013 by 32.8 and 9.1 per cent,
respectively. Federal Government retained revenue was N823.9
billion, while total expenditure was N1,462.3 billion. Thus, the fiscal
operations of the Federal Government resulted in an estimated
deficit of N638.4 billion in the first quarter of 2014, compared with the
quarterly budgeted and the preceding qaurter’s deficit of N221.8


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Economic Report First Quarter

billion and N628.0 billion, respectively.
Activities in the agricultural sector were dominated by the harvesting
of tree crops, clearing of land for the 2014 wet season farming, and
tending of irrigation-fed vegetables and cereal crops. Nigeria’s
crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids,
was estimated at an average of 1.90 million barrels per day (mbd) or
171.0 million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export stood at 1.45
mbd or 130.50 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries to the
refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or 40.50
million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the
Bonny Light (370 API), fell by 3.2 per cent below the level in the fourth
quarter of 2013.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 7.8 per
cent, compared with the 8.0 and 8.6 per cent recorded at the end
of the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis was 8.2 per
cent, compared with 8.5 and 11.4 per cent in the preceding and the
corresponding quarters, respectively.
Proviosnal data indicated that foreign exchange inflow and outflow
through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$10.09
billion and US$15.67 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of
US$5.58 billion during the review quarter. Foreign exchange sales by
the CBN to the authorized dealers amounted to US$14.77 billion,
compared with US$9.10 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. The
average exchange rate of the Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the
rDAS window was N157.30 per US dollar, indicating marginal
appreciation over its levels in the fourth and the corresponding
quarters of 2013, respectively. However, the Naira depreiciated at
both the bureau-de-change and inter-bank segments of the market,
by 1.8 and 2.2 per cent, respectively, compared with their levels in
the fourth quarter of 2013.
Available data from the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO)
indicated that global growth in 2014 was projected at 3.7 per cent,
following increased global activity recorded in the second half of
2013. The development was attributed to expected increase in
aggregate demand in the advanced economies and anticipated
rebound in exports in emerging economies, even as domestic
demand remained weaker than expected in many countries.
World crude oil demand in the first quarter of 2014 declined by 0.8
per cent below the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.
However, world crude oil output increased by 0.5 per cent over the
level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013. The fall in demand was


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Economic Report First Quarter

attributed, mainly, to low consumption of transportation fuel due to
exceptional cold snaps in the Northern Hemisphere and reduced
momentum in oil demand by the US. The OPEC reference basket
price of eleven selected crude streams declined by 1.6 and 0.8 per
cent below its levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of
2013, respectively. The prices of the UK Brent, the WTI and the
Forcados exhibited similar trend.
Other major international economic developments and meetings of
importance to the domestic economy during the review quarter
included: the meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank
Governors held at Sydney from February 22 - 23, 2014; First Bureau
Meeting of the Bureau of Association of African Central Banks
(AACB) held in Dakar, Senegal on February 26, 2014 and the
Inaugural Meeting of the Presidential Task Force on ECOWAS
Monetary Cooperation Programme held in Niamey, Republic of
Niger, from February 20 - 21, 2014. Also, the African Development
Bank (AfDB) and the African Union Commission (AUC) signed a new
project grant on January 29, 2014.
Also held during the review period were: the 22nd Assembly of Heads
of State and Government of the African Union in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia from January 21-31, 2014; the 2013 Statutory Meetings of the
West African Monetary Agency (WAMA); West African Monetary
Institute (WAMI); West African Institute for Financial and Economic
Mangement (WAIFEM) and the 30th Meeting of the Committee of
Governors for WAMZ. Finally, the 7th Joint Annual Meetings of the
African Union (AU) and Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
Conference of Minitsers of Finance, Planning and Economic
Development was held at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria
from March 29 – 30, 2014.


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2.0 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
Provisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary
aggregate was modest at the end of the first quarter of 2014.
Developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates were mixed
during the review quarter. The value of money market assets
outstanding increased, due largely, to the rise in NTBs. Developments
in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed during the review
quarter.
Provisional data indicated that growth in the major monetary
aggregate was moderate at the end of the first quarter of
2014. Relative to the level at the end of the fourth quarter of
2013, broad money supply, (M2), grew by 0.2 per cent to
N15,699.7 billion at end-March 2014, compared with the 1.2
per cent growth at the end of the corresponding quarter of
2013. The development reflected, largely, the significant
decline of 10.6 per cent in net foreign asset, the effect of
which was, however, dampened by the respective growth of
2.1 and 7.9 per cent in domestic credit (net) and other asset
net of the banking system.
Narrow money supply (M1) fell by 1.7 per cent relative to the
level at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with
6.5 per cent recorded at end of the corresponding quarter of
2013. This, however, contrasted with the growth of 11.4 per
cent at end-December 2013. The development, relative to the
fourth quarter of 2013, was attributed, wholly, to the 15.2 per
cent decline in currency-in-circulation, which more than offset
the 1.8 per cent rise in its demand deposit component.
Quasi money, at N8,807.9 billion, rose by 1.8 per cent,
compared with 7.3 and 8.3 per cent increase recorded at
end-December 2013 and the corresponding quarter of 2013,
respectively. The development, relative to the fourth quarter
of 2013, was attributed to the increase in time and savings
deposit in banks during the review period (Fig. 1, Table 1).
Key monetary
aggregate grew
during Q1
2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1
-15
-10
-5

-10
-5

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)

At N15,349.3 billion, aggregate banking system‟s credit (net)
to the domestic economy rose by 2.1 per cent at the end of
the first quarter of 2014, compared with the 14.9 and 0.3 per
cent increase at the end of the fourth and the corresponding
quarters of 2013, respectively. The development relative to the
level at end of the fourth quarter of 2013, was due to the 2.4
and 1.7 per cent increase in claims on the Federal
Government and the private sector, respectively.
Banking system‟s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at
the end of the review quarter, rose by 2.4 per cent to negative
N1,434.1 billion, compared with 53.9 percent at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2013. This, however, contrasted with the 2.8
per cent decline recorded at the end of the corresponding
quarter of 2013. The development relative to the level at the
end of the fourth quarter of 2013 was accounted for by the
increase of 4.8 and 0.2 per cent in banks and Central Bank‟s
claims on the Federal Government, respectively.
At the end of the first quarter of 2014, banking system‟s credit
to the private sector rose by 1.7 per cent to N16,783.4 billion,
compared with the 1.4 and 0.7 per cent increase in the fourth

1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).

Banking system
credit to the
Federal
Government rose
at the end of the
first quarter of
2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. The
development, relative to the level at the end of the fourth
quarter of 2013, reflected the 1.9 per cent increase in claims
on the core private sector during the review quarter (Fig. 2,
Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)

At N7,613.1 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
fell by 10.6 per cent at the end of the review quarter,
compared with the decline of 4.6 per cent at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2013. This, however, contrasted with the
increase of 7.1 per cent recorded at the end of the
corresponding quarter of 2013. The development, relative to
the level in the fourth quarter of 2013, was attributed to the
decline in both the CBN and banks‟ holdings of foreign assets.
Other assets (net) of the banking system rose by 7.9 per cent
to negative N7,262.7 billion, in contrast to the decline of 3.1
and 7.9 per cent at the end of the fourth and the
corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. The increase,
relative to the level in the fourth quarter of 2013, reflected,
largely, the increase in unclassified assets of both the CBN and
the banks during the review period.


2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP,
CCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date).
Foreign assets
(net) of the
banking system fell
at the end of the
review quarter.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Percent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


2.2
Currency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at
the CBN
At N1,574.4 billion, currency-in-circulation fell by 11.4 per cent
at the end of the first quarter of 2014, compared with the
decline of 7.6 per cent at the end of the corresponding
quarter of 2013. This, however, contrasted with the 20.5 per
cent increase at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013. The
development, relative to the level at the end of the fourth
quarter of 2013, was attributed, largely, to the 15.2 per cent
fall in currency outside the banks.

Total deposits at the CBN declined by 3.0 per cent to N6,814.9
billion, in contrast to the increase of 0.2 per cent at the end of
the fourth quarter of 2013. The development reflected, largely,
the 8.5 and 3.0 per cent fall in the deposits of banks and
Federal Government, respectively, which more than offset the
48.4 per cent increase in the deposit of “Others”. Of the total
deposit, the shares of the Federal Government, banks and
„‟Others‟‟ were N2,763.8 billion (40.6 per cent), N3,462.5 billion
(50.8 per cent) and N588.6 billion (8.6 per cent), respectively.
Reserve money (RM), at N5,036.8 billion, fell by 9.4 per cent, in
contrast to the 19.6 per cent increase recorded in the
preceding quarter. The development, relative to the level in
the preceding quarter, was attributed to the significant
decline in its currency and demand deposit components.

Reserve money
(RM) fell at the
end of the fourth
quarter of 2013.


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Economic Report First Quarter

2.3
Money Market Developments
Money market rates remained relatively stable in the first
quarter of 2014. The developments were influenced by the
liquidity conditions in the banking system. Monetary Policy
remained, largely, restrictive in the first quarter of 2014. The
Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was maintained at 12.0 per cent,
while the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) on both public and
private sector deposits were increased from 50.0 and 12.0 per
cent to 75.0 and 15.0 per cent, respectively. The Liquidity Ratio
(L/R) and Net Open Position were also retained at their
preceding quarter‟s levels. The redemption of AMCON bond,
coupled with maturing CBN bills and FGN Bonds as well as
other fiscal injections, boosted the level of liquidity in the
system. However, the increase in CRR on public and private
sector deposits led to a slight increase in the inter-bank rate in
the review quarter.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market
assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2014 stood
at N6,909.3 billion, showing an increase of 1.1 per cent,
compared with the increase of 4.0 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the
increase in NTBs outstanding at the end of the quarter.

2.3.1
Interest Rates Developments
Available data indicated mixed developments in banks‟
deposit and lending rates during the first quarter of 2014. With
the exception of the 7-day deposit rate, which fell from 4.97
per cent to 4.73 per cent in the review period, all other rates
on deposits of various maturities rose from a range of 2.48 –
10.99 per cent to a range of 3.30 – 11.24 per cent in the first
quarter of 2014. Similarly, at 8.54 pe cent, the average term
deposit rate rose by 1.91 percentage points above the level in
the fourth quarter 2013. The prime and maximum lending rates
increased by 0.24 and 0.78 percentage point to 16.86 and
25.72 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2014.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed by 1.13
percentage point to 17.17 per cent from 18.30 per cent in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, the margin between the average
savings deposit and the maximum lending rates narrowed by
Money market
rates were
relatively stable
during the review
period.
The spread
between the
weighted – average
term deposit and
maximum lending
rates narrowed
during the review
period.


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Economic Report First Quarter

0.04 percentage point to 22.41 per cent from 21.45 per cent in
the preceeding quarter. With the headline inflation rate at 7.8
per cent at end-March 2014, most rates, with the exception of
the savings and 7-day deposit, were positive in real terms.
At the interbank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 10.99 per cent at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2013, rose by 0.25 percentage point to 11.24
per cent in the first quarter of 2014, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the banking system. Similarly, the weighted
average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment rose to
11.33 per cent in the review quarter, from 11.08 per cent in
the preceding quarter. The Nigeria Inter-bank Offered Rate
(NIBOR) for the 7-day and 30-day tenors, rose to 11.88 and
12.22 per cent from 11.54 and 12.02 per cent, respectively, in
the fourth quarter of 2013 (Fig. 3, Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits

Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending


Interbank call rate
rose in Q1 2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Provisional data indicated that the value of Commercial
Paper (CP) held by the banks rose by 15.4 per cent to N10.8
billion at the end of the first quarter of 2014, compared with
the value of N9.3 billion at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed to the increase in investment
in Commercial Paper by commercial banks. Thus, CP
constituted 0.16 per cent of the total value of money market
assets outstanding at the end of the review quarter,
compared with 0.14 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
The value of BAs held by banks increased by 49.8 per cent to
N30.7 billion in the review quarter, compared with N20.5 billion
at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the increase in investment in BAs by banks.
Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.44 per cent of the total
value of money market assets outstanding, at the end of the
first quarter of 2014, compared with 0.30 per cent at the end
of the preceding quarter.
2.3.4 Open Market Operations
Bills of various maturities, ranging from 28 -153 days were used
for liquidity management in the first quarter of 2014. Total sales
amounted to N2,113.5 billion, while subscription was N3,299.6
billion, compared with N2,431.5 billion and N3,506.5 billion
allotted and subscribed to in the fourth quarter of 2014. The
bid rates ranged from 10.70 – 16.60 per cent, while the stop
rates were between 11.20 – 13.10 per cent for tenors ranging
from 28 – 153 days, compared with stop rates ranging from
11.53 –12.25 per cent in the preceding quarter. Matured bills
amounting to N2,723.74 billion were repaid in the review
period.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day
tenors, amounting to N1,161.22 billion, N2,037.48 billion and
N1,176.22 billion, were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, in the first quarter of 2014, compared with
N736.50 billion, N1,437.69 billion and N826.50 billion in the
preceding quarter. The bid rates ranged from 10.00 – 14.10,
10.00 – 14.49 and 10.00 – 16.99 per cent, for the 91-, 182- and
Investment in
CP by banks
rose in the first
quarter of 2014.
Banks’ holdings
of BAs increased
during Q1 of
2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

364-day tenor, respectively, while the stop rates ranged from
10.75 – 13.59 per cent.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
FGN Bonds of 3-, and 20-year tranches were re-opened and a
new tranche of 10-year was auctioned during the first quarter
of 2014. The total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted
for the tranches were N270.00 billion, N544.89 billion and
N265.00 billion, respectively, compared with N195.00 billion,
N437.08 billion and N195.00 billion recorded in the fourth
quarter of 2013. The marginal rates ranged between 13.10 –
14.20 per cent for all the tenors, compared with the range of
12.55 – 13.26 per cent obtained in the preceding quarter. The
amount sold showed an increase of 35.9 per cent, compared
with 6.7 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The total Standing Lending Facility (SLF) granted during the
review period was N3,169.26 billion with a daily average of
N51.12 billion in the first quarter of 2014, compared with
N1,445.54 billion in the preceding quarter, indicating an
increase of 119.2 per cent. Interest paid on SLF in the first
quarter of 2014 stood at N1.70 billion, compared with N0.87
billion in the preceding quarter.
Total standing deposit facilities (SDF) granted during the
review period was N24,037.26 billion with daily average of
N387.7 billion, compared with N18,088.37 billion granted in the
fourth quarter of 2013. The cost incurred on SDF rose by 32.3
per cent to N9.42 billion, compared with N7.12 billion in the
preceding quarter.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
Available data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of
the DMBs stood at N24,474.4 billion at the end of the first
quarter of 2014, representing an increase of 0.6 per cent over
the level at the end of the preceding quarter. The funds,
which were sourced largely from draw-down on capital and
reserves accounts; increased time, savings, foreign currency,
and demand deposits, were used for the acquisition of
unclassified assets, foreign assets and extension of credit to
the private sector.
Subscription for FGN
Bonds of various
maturities increased
during the first
quarter of 2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

At N12,541.3 billion, banks‟ credit to the domestic economy,
rose by 2.5 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed to the 2.5 and 4.8 per cent
increase in claims on the private sector and Federal
Government, respectively, in the review period.
Central Bank‟s credit to the banks rose by 18.3 per cent to
N271.9 billion at the end of the review quarter, reflecting the
increase in CBN loans and advances, and overdrafts to banks,
while total specified liquid assets of the DMBs stood at N6,039.9
billion, representing 43.1 per cent of their total current
liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio, rose by 3.6
percentage points above the level in the preceding quarter,
and was 13.1 percentage points above the stipulated
minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at
55.8 per cent, was 19.5 percentage points above the level at
the end of the preceding quarter, but was 24.2 percentage
points below the prescribed maximum ratio of 80.0 per cent.
2.5
Discount Houses’ Activities
Total assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N135.8
billion at the end of the first quarter of 2014, indicating an
increase of 1.5 per cent above the level at the end of the
preceding quarter, but was a decline of 62.2 per cent below
the level at the end of the corresponding quarter of 2013. The
increase in assets relative to the preceding quarter was
accounted for by the increase in claims on Federal
Government and State Governments, and Other assets which
more than offset the effect of the decline in claims on others.
Correspondingly, the increase in total liabilities was attributed
to the rise in capital and reserves, other amount owed and
other liabilities, which exceeded the decline in money-at-call.
Discount houses‟ investment in Federal Government securities
of less than 91-day maturity rose by 47.3 per cent to N46.2
billion and represented 47.1 per cent of their total deposit
liabilities. At this level, discount houses‟ investment was 12.9
percentage points below the prescribed minimum level of
60.0 per cent for fiscal year 2014. Total borrowing by the
discount houses was N45.7 billion, while their capital and
reserves stood at N23.0 billion. This resulted in a gearing ratio of
2.0:1, compared with the stipulated maximum of 50:1 for the
At 43.15 per cent,
liquidity ratio in Q1
2014 was 13.1
percentage points
above the stipulated
minimum ratio, while
the Loan-to-deposit
ratio fell below the
prescribed maximum
of 80 per cent.


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Economic Report First Quarter

fiscal year.
2.6
Capital Market Developments
2.6.1
Secondary Market
Available data indicated that developments in the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed during the first quarter of
2014. Total volume and value of traded securities rose by 8.9
and 17.1 per cent to 28.3 billion shares and N273.9 billion in
319,512 deals, respectively, in the review period, compared
with 26.0 billion shares, valued at N234.0 billion in 286,949 deals
recorded in the preceding quarter. The Financial Services
Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 21.9
billion shares valued at N159.3 billion, traded in 172,108 deals;
thus contributing 77.4 and 58.2 per cent to the total equity
turnover volume and value, respectively, compared with 17.3
billion shares, valued at N116.9 billion in 145,624 deals
recorded in the preceeding quarter. The Banking subsector of
the Financial Services sector was the most active subsector
during the review quarter.
Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)

Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

2.6.2
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Bonds Market
At the end of the first quarter of 2014, provisional data
indicated that transactions in the Over-the-Counter (OTC)
bond market, recorded a turnover of 21.1 million units, worth
N20.9 billion, in 40 deals, compared with 0.27 billion units,
worth N278.1 billion, in 1,328 deals recorded in the preceding
quarter.
2.6.3
New Issues Market
There were two (2) new and five (5) supplementary listings in
the review quarter (see table below).
Table 4: New and Supplementary Listings on the Nigeria Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing

African Prudential Registrars Plc
1.0 Billion Shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary

La Casera Company Plc (Corporate Bond)
3.0 Billion (15.75% Series Bond)
Debt Issuance Programme
New

Sterling Banl Plc
5.88 Million Shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary

Uba Capital Plc
2.0 Billion Shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary

Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals Plc
261.6 Million Shares
Bonus Issue
Supplementary

Oando Plc
2.05 Billion Shares
Placement
Supplementary

Vetiva Griffin
159.4 Million 30 ETF Securities
Placement
New

2.6.4
Market Capitalization
Aggregate market capitalization for all listed securities
(equities and bonds) stood at N16.7 trillion at the end of the
review quarter, indicating a decline of 12.5 per cent below
the level at the end of the preceeding quarter. Similarly,
market capitalization for the listed equities fell by 5.9 per cent
below the level at the end of the preceding quarter to close
at N12.5 trillion at the end of the review quarter. Listed equities
accounted for 74.8 per cent of the aggregate market
capitalization in the review quarter.
2.6.5 NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 41,329.19 at the
beginning of the quarter, closed at 38,748.01, representing a
decline of 6.2 per cent below the level at the end of the fourth
quarter of 2013. At end-March 2014, with the exception of the
NSE Industrial index, which rose to 2,587.10 over 2,546.59 at the
end of the preceding quarter, all the other six sectoral indices
fell below their levels at the beginning of the quarter. The NSE
Banking, NSE Insurances, NSE Consumer Goods, NSE Oil/Gas,
Total market
capitalization and
All-Share Index
declined during Q1
2014.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

NSE Lotus Islamic and NSE ASeM indices declined by 16.6, 11.3,
12.1, 15.2, 3.6, and 1.0 per cent, to close at 373.33, 135.63,
966.98, 288.21, 2,760.37 and 952.39, respectively, at the end of
the review period.
Figure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Market Capitalization (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
29,652.50

21,599.60

26,022.60

28,078.80

33,536.25

36,164.31

36,585.08

41,329.19

38,748.01


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations
3.1
Federation Account Operations
Available data showed that total federally-collected revenue
during the first quarter of 2014 stood at N2,414.49 billion,
representing an increase of 9.5 per cent above the level in the
preceding quarter, but was a decline of 1.7 per cent from the
level in the corresponding period of 2013. The development
relative to the preceding quarter was attributed, largely, to
the rise in oil revenue (Fig. 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Oil Revenue Gross
Non-Oil Revenue

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)

Oil Revenue

Non-Oil Revenue


At N1,808.86 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 74.9
per cent of the total, fell by 6.5 per cent below the
proportionate budget estimate, but rose by 17.6 per cent
above
the
receipts
in
the
preceding
quarter.
The
development was attributed to the increase in crude oil and
gas exports, and other oil revenue during the review quarter
(Fig. 7, Table 7).


Gross federally -
collected
revenue rose by
9.5 per cent
above the level
in the fourth
quarter of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components
-


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
N billion
Others
PPT/Royalties
Crude oil/Gas Sales

Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)


Non-oil receipts (gross), at N605.6 billion (25.1 per cent of the
total), was below both the proportionate budget estimate
and the level in the fourth quarter of 2013 by 32.8 and 9.1 per
cent, respectively. The decline in non-oil revenue relative to
the fourth quarter of 2013 was due to the fall in receipts from
customs and excise duties, VAT and education tax (Fig. 8,
Table 8).
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Oil Revenue


Crude oil/Gas Sales

PPT/Royalties


Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and its Components
-

1,000
1,200
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
N billion
Others
Customs & Excise Duties
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Table 8 Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Non-Oil Revenue

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes

Customs & Excise Duties

Others


Of the gross federally-collected revenue during the review
quarter, the sum of N1,492.99 billion (after accounting for all
deductions and transfers) was transferred to the Federation
Account for distribution among the three tiers of government
and the 13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government
received
N703.72
billion,
while
the
state
and
local
governments received N356.93 billion and N275.18 billion,
respectively. The balance of N157.15 billion went to the 13.0%
Derivation Fund for distribution to the oil-producing states.
Also, the Federal Government received N30.79 billion from the
VAT Pool Account, while the state and local governments
received N102.63 billion and N71.84 billion, respectively.
The sum of N106.65 billion was also distributed as the Subsidy
Re-Investment
and
Empowerment
Programme
(SURE-P)
among the three tiers of government and the 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: Federal Government (N48.88 billion), State
Governments (N24.80 billion), Local Governments (N19.11
billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N13.86 billion).
The
sum
of
N1,492.99 billion
out
of
the
federally collected
revenue
was
distributed among
the three tiers of
government
and
13.0% Derivation
Fund
for
oil
producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

In addition, the sum of N22.85 billion from NNPC Refund was
shared by the sub-national governments and 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: State Governments (N11.23 billion), Local
Governments (N8.65 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N2.97
billion). Thus, the total allocation to the three tiers of
government in the first quarter of 2014 amounted to N1,827.73
billion, compared with N2,008.12 billion in the preceding
quarter.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government

3.2.1
The Federal Government

At N823.86 billion, the Federal Government retained revenue
for the first quarter of 2014 was lower than both the
proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the fourth
quarter of 2013 by 32.8 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. Of this
amount, the Federal Government share from the Federation
Account, Sure-P, FGN Independent Revenue, and VAT were
N703.72 billion, N48.88 billion, N40.48 billion and N30.79 billion,
respectively (Fig. 9, Table 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue
Federation Account (85.4%)
VAT Pool
Account (3.8)
Others(5.9%)
FGN Independent
Revenue (4.9%))


Federal government
estimated retained
revenue and total
expenditure were
lower than the
receipts in the fourth
quarter of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Retained Revenue

Expenditure

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


Total estimated expenditure for the first quarter of 2014 stood
at N1,462.26 billion, indicating an increase of 1.0 and 0.5 per
cent above the quarterly budget estimate and the level in the
preceding quarter, respectively. The development was
attributed to the rise in the recurrent component during the
period. A breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the
recurrent component accounted for 85.2 per cent, while
capital and statutory transfers components accounted for 9.8
and 5.0 per cent, repectively (Fig. 10). A further breakdown of
the
recurrent expenditure
showed that the
non-debt
component accounted for 81.5 per cent, while debt service
payments accounted for the balance of 18.5 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N638.4 billion, compared with
N601.56 billiion or 5.1 per cent of the estimated GDP for the
fourth quarter of 2013.
Figure10: Federal Government Expenditure
Recurrent
Capital
Transfers
Capital
(9.8%)
Transfers
(5.0%)
Recurrent
(85.2%)


The fiscal
operations of
the FG resulted
in an estimated
deficit of
N638.39 billion
in Q1 2014.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

Total
allocation
to
state
governments
(including
the
Federation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and VAT) stood at
N669.57 billion during the review quarter. This was 0.5 and 8.7
per cent below the levels in both the fourth and the
corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
Further breakdown showed that, at N566.94 billion, receipts
from the Federation Account constituted 84.7 per cent of the
total, indicating a decline of 0.5 and 8.7 per cent below the
levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
respectively. At N102.63 billion, receipts from the VAT Pool
Account, constituted 15.3 per cent of the total, indicating a
3.7 per cent increase over the level in the fourth quarter of
2013, but a 15.1 per cent decline below its level in the
corresponding quarter of 2013.
On a monthly basis, the sum of N209.32 billion, N228.63 billion
and N231.62 billion was allocated as statutory allocations and
VAT receipts to the 36 state governments in January, February
and March 2014, respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils

Total receipts by the local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts during the first quarter of 2014, stood
at N374.79 billion. This amount was both below the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2013 by
0.6 and 6.7 per cent, respectively. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N302.95 billion
(80.8 per cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for the
balance of N71.84 billion (19.2 per cent). On a monthly basis,
the sum of N117.49 billion, N128.80 billion and N128.50 billion
was allocated to the 774 local governments in January,
February and March 2014, respectively.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
The dominant agricultural activities in the first quarter of 2014 were
harvesting of tree crops, clearing of land in preparation for wet
season farming, and tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and cereal
crops. Crude oil production was estimated at 1.90 million barrels per
day (mbd) or 171.0 million barrels for the quarter. The end-period
inflation rate for the first quarter of 2014, on year-on-year basis, was
7.8 per cent, compared with 8.0 and 8.6 per cent at the end of the
fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. The
inflation rate on a 12-month moving average basis was 8.2 per cent,
compared with 8.5 and 11.4 per cent in the fourth and
corresponding qaurters of 2013, respectively.

4.1
Agricultural Sector
Available data indicated that agricultural activities during the
first quarter of 2014 were dominated by the harvesting of tree
crops and clearing of land in preparation for wet season
farming in the southern states. Farmers in the northern states
continued with the tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and
cereal crops. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers were involved
in raising of livestock to replace stock sold during the
preceding
end
of
year
fetivities.
However,
persistent
farmers/Fulani herdsman clashes during the review period
negatively impacted agricultural output.
A total of N2,615.9 million was guaranteed to 17,067 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the first quarter of 2014. This represented a decline of 10.2 per
cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but was 38.2
per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2013.
A sub-sectoral analysis of the loans guaranteed indicated that
the food crops sub-sector received the largest share of
N1,735.4 million (67.0 per cent) for 13,111 beneficiaries,
livestock sub-sector got N440.8 million (16.9 per cent) for 1,318
beneficiaries, while the mixed crops got N137.5 million (5.3 per
cent) guaranteed to 1,008 beneficiaries. Fisheries sub-sector
received N129.5 million (5.0 per cent) for 714 beneficiaries,
while „Others‟ sub-sector got N79.2 million (2.9 per cent)
guaranteed to 464 beneficiaries. Cash crops sub-sector
received N75.6 million (2.9 per cent) guaranteed to 452


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

beneficiaries. Further analysis showed that all the states and
FCT benefited from the Scheme during the quarter, with the
highest and lowest sums of N250.5 million (9.6 per cent) and
N0.3 million (0.01 per cent) guaranteed to Kebbi and Bauchi
states, respectively.
At end-March 2014, the total amount released by the CBN
under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) to
the participating banks for disbursement stood at N228.20
billion for 307 (three hundred and seven) projects (Table 10).
The beneficiaries included thirty state governments.


4.3
Industrial Production


4.2
Industrial Production
Industrial activities declined marginally during the first quarter
of 2014 relative to the level in the preceding quarter. At 138.98
(1990=100), the estimated index of industrial production
declined by 0.2 per cent from the level in the preceding
quarter, but increased by 1.12 per cent above the level in the
corresponding quarter of 2013. The development relative to
fourth quarter of 2013 was attributed to the fall in activities in
Industrial activities
declined in the
review quarter due
to fall in activities
of all its sub-sectors
during Q1 2014.
Table 10: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amount Disbursed (N billion) mber of Projects/State Governme

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
41.8

Zenith Bank
34.0

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
26.1

Unity Bank Plc
22.3

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
18.2

Stanbic IBTC Bank
13.5

Access Bank Plc
11.1

Skye Bank Plc
9.6

Fidelity Bank Plc
10.9

Sterling Bank Plc
13.3

GTBank Plc
5.8

FCMB Plc.
5.1

ECOBANK
4.3

Citibank Plc

Diamond Bank Plc

Mainstreet Bank Plc

Keystone Bank
2.1

Wema Bank Plc
1.1

Enterprise Bank PLC
0.5

Heritage Bank
0.5

TOTAL
228.2

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

all its sub-sectors during the period.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 108.2
(1990=100), fell by 0.7 per cent below the level in the fourth
quarter of 2013, but rose by 1.12 per cent above the level in
the corresponding period of 2013. The estimated capacity
utilization also fell by 0.3 percentage point to 58.0 per cent
during the review period. The development was attributed to
the decline in manufacturing activities (Fig.11).
Figure 11: Capacity Utilization Rate

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Percent

At 147.23 (1990=100), the index of mining production fell by 1.2
per cent relative to the level attained in the fourth quarter of
2013, but indicated an increase of 0.7 per cent above the
level in the corresponding quarter of 2013. The decline in
mining production during the review quarter was accounted
for by the fall in the index of quarrying and other mining
production.
At 3,200 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation fell
by 8.6 per cent, compared with the level attained in the fourth
quarter of 2013. The development was attributed to vandalism
of gas pipeline and damages to substations across the
country.
At 3,968 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption fell
by 8.6 per cent, compared with the level attained in the fourth
quarter of 2013. The development was attributed to the
decrease in power supply transmission and distribution (Fig. 12,
Actual industrial
capacity utilization
fell by 0.3
percentage point
during the review
quarter.
Average electricity
generation and
consumption fell
during the review
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 11).
Figure 12: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100)

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Index

Table 11: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Electricity

Capacity Utilization (%)


4.3
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria‟s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.90 million barrels per
day (mbd) or 171.0 million barrels, compared with 1.87 mbd or
(172.04 million barrels) in the fourth quarter of 2013. This
represented an increase of 0.03 mbd or 1.6 per cent above
the level in the fourth quarter of 2013. Consequently, crude oil
export was estimated at 1.45 mbd or (130.50 million barrels) in
the review quarter, compared with 1.42 mbd or 130.64 in the
fourth quarter of 2013, thus representing an increase of 2.1 per
cent. The development was attributed to the successes
recorded in the efforts at curbing the incessant crude oil theft
in the Niger Delta region. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
Crude oil and natural
gas production
increased by 0.03 per
cent during Q1 2014.
Crude oil export
recorded an
increase in Q1
2014.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

consumption was 0.45 mbd or 40.5 million barrels during the
review quarter.
At an estimated average of US$109.47 per barrel, the price of
Nigeria‟s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), fell by 3.2
per cent below the level in the fourth quarter of 2013. The
average prices of other competing crudes, namely the U.K
Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and the Forcados also fell
to US$107.35, US$92.86 and US$110.33 per barrel from
US$110.81, US$97.73 and US$112.74 per barrel, respectively, in
the preceding quarter. At US$105.98 per barrel, the average
price of OPEC‟s basket of eleven crude streams fell by 1.6 and
0.8 per cent, below the US$107.67 and US$106.79 per barrel
recorded in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of
2013, respectively. The fall in prices was attributed to the
continued geopolitical tension in Ukraine, China‟s slow
economic growth and the ongoing production outage in
Libya (Fig. 13, Table 12).
Figure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket


Average crude oil
prices, including
Nigeria’s Bony Light
(37o API),fell in the
international crude
oil market in Q1
2014.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


4.4
Consumer Prices3
Available
data
showed
that
the
all-items
composite
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the first quarter of
2014 was 155.2 (November 2009=100), representing an
increase of 2.0 and 7.8 per cent over the levels in the fourth
and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. The
development
reflected
the
increase
in
food
prices,
particularly bread and cereals, fish, dairy, Oils and fats, fruits
classes, meats, vegetables, potatoes and yams, and other
tubers.

The urban all-items CPI at the end of the first quarter of 2014
was 154.2 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 1.9
and 7.9 per cent over the levels in the fourth and the
corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. Similarly, the rural
all-items CPI, at 156.4 (November 2009=100), represented an
increase of 2.0 and 7.6 per cent over the levels in the fourth
and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively (Fig. 14,
Table 13).

3 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey
(NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 18th October 2010.
The general
price level rose
in Q1 2014 on
account of the
increase in the
prices of food
items.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure14: Consumer Price Index

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural


Table 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Composite

Urban

Rural


The end-period inflation rate for the first quarter of 2014, on a
year-on-year basis, stood at 7.8 per cent, compared with 8.0
per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013. This indicated a decline
of 0.8 percentage point below the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2013. The inflation rate on a twelve-month moving
average basis was 8.2 per cent, compared with 8.5 and 11.4
per cent in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
respectively (Fig. 15, Table 14).
The headline
inflation (y-o-y)
stood at 7.8 per
cent in Q1 2014.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 15: Inflation Rate

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year

Table 14: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN in the first quarter of 2014 rose by 6.6 per ent above the level in
the preceding quarter, but declined by 2.0 per cent below the level
in the corresponding quarter of 2013. Outflow through the Bank
increased by 45.3 and 148.3 per cent over the levels in the
preceding and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
Total non-oil export receipts by banks fell by 27.8 and 2.0 per cent
relative to the levels in the preceding and the corresponding
quarters of 2013. Relative to the preceding quarter, the average
Naira exchange rate at the rDAS vis-à-vis the US dollar, appreciated
marginally by 0.01 per cent to N157.30 per dollar. At the BDC
segment of the market, the average naira exchange rate, at
N170.84 vis-à-vis the dollar, depreciated by 1.8 per cent, relative to
the level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, at the interbank
segment, the average naira exchange rate relative to the
preceding quarter depreciated to N162.78 per dollar. The gross
external reserves fell by 12.7 per cent to US$37.40 billion below its
level at the end of the preceding quarter.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN in the first quarter of 2014 amounted to
US$10.09 billion, representing an increase of 6.6 per cent
above the level in the preceding quarter, but was 2.0 per cent
below the level in the corresponding quarter of 2013. The
development relative to the preceding quarter was attributed
to the 14.2 per cent increase in receipts from crude oil exports.
Outflow amounted to US$15.67 billion, showing an increase of
45.3 and 148.3 per cent above the levels in the fourth and the
corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively. The rise in
outflow relative to the preceding quarter was attributed to the
increase in rDAS utilization, other official payments and
external debt service payments. The development resulted in
a net outflow of US$5.58 billion, compared with US$1.32 billion
recorded in the preceding quarter, but was in contrast with
net inflow of US$3.99 billion in the corresponding quarter of
2013 (Fig.16, Table 15).


Foreign exchange
inflow and out
flow through the
CBN rose by 6.6
and 45.3 per
cent,
respectively,
resulting in a net
outflow of
US$5.58 billion
during Q1 of
2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Table 15: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Inflow
12,119.80

10,050.94

13,444.07

11,168.38

10,304.46

9,442.91

11,857.35

9,465.52

10,094.16

Outflow
9,760.50

10,118.35

8,668.74

7,817.12

6,313.04

12,500.11

12,667.33

10,789.61

15,672.86

Netflow
2,359.30

(67.41)

4,775.33

3,351.26

3,991.42

(3,057.20)

(809.98)

(1,324.09)

(5,578.70)


Provisonal data on aggregate foreign exchange flows
through the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to
US$35.98 billion, representing an increase of 2.1 and 5.4 per
cent
above
the
levels
in
the
preceding
and
the
corresponding
quarters
of
2013,
respectively.
The
development was attributed to increase in receipts from
crude oil export and invisible inflows through autonomous
sources (non-oil exports). Oil sector receipts, which accounted
for 26.9 per cent of the total, stood at US$9.69 billion,
compared with the US$8.48 billion and US$9.77 billion
recorded in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of
2013, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$0.40 billion, (1.1 per cent of
the total) fell by 59.0 and 25.0 per cent below the levels in the
fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
Autonomous inflow, which accounted for 71.9 per cent of the
Autonomous inflows
into the economy
rose by 0.5 per cent
in Q1 2014 .
-10,000
-5,000


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow


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Economic Report First Quarter

total rose by 0.5 per cent above the level in the fourth quarter
of 2013.
At US$16.00 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy increased by 42.6 and 149.9 per cent above the
levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
respectively. The increase, relative to the fourth quarter of
2013, was accounted for, mainly, by the 58.0 per cent
increase in funding of the rDAS. Overall, a net inflow of
US$19.98 billion was recorded in the first quarter of 2014,
compared with US$24.02 billion and US$27.73 billion in the
fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters during the
first quarter of 2014 stood at US$1.11 billion, indicating a
decline of 27.8 and 2.0 per cent below the the levels in the
fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
The development relative to the preceding qaurter was
attributed, largely, to the significant decline in foreign
exchange receipts from agricultural, industrial and food
products sectors. A breakdown of the proceeds showed that
manufactured
products,
industrial
sector,
agricultural
products, minerals and food products earned US$561.2 million,
US$301.8 million, US$174.1million, US$52.6 million, and US$24.3
million, respectively.
The shares of manufactured products, industrial sector,
agricultural products, minerals and food products in non-oil
export proceeds were 50.4, 27.1, 15.6, 4.7 and 2.2 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Available data indicated that the invisible sector accounted
for the bulk (51.0 per cent) of total foreign exchange
disbursed in the first quarter of 2013, followed by mineral and
oil sector (15.7 per cent). Other beneficiary sectors, in a
descending order included: industrial sector (13.3 per cent),
food products (8.7 per cent), manufactured products (7.8 per
cent), transport sector (2.9 per cent) and agricultural products
(0.6 per cent) (Fig.17).
.
The invisible
sector accounted
for the bulk of the
total foreign
exchange
disbursed during
Q1 2014.
Total non-oil
export earnings by
exporters fell
during the first
quarter of 2014.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Figure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange


Percent of Total
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
Foreign exchange demand by the authorized dealers for the
review quarter was estimated at US$16.84 billion, indicating an
increase of 40.4 and 245.15 per cent above the levels in the
fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013, respectively.
The sum of US$14.77 was sold by the CBN during the review
quarter, indicating an increase of 62.3 and 216.45 per cent
above the levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters
of 2013, respectively. (Fig. 18, Table 17).
Figure 18: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
US$ billion
Forex Sales at WDAS
Forex Demand at WDAS
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Demand and supply
of foreign exchange
by authorized dealers
rose during Q1 2014.


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Table 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Forex Sales at RDAS

Forex Demand at RDAS

Supply of Forex to BDC

Total Forex Supply(BDC and RDAS)


Under the rDAS, the average exchange rate of the naira vis-àvis the US dollar was N157.30 per US dollar, indicating a
marginal appreciation of 0.01 and 0.003 per cent relative to
the levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
respectively. However, at the bureau-de-change segment of
the market, the naira traded at an average of N170.84 per US
dollar, indicating a depreciation of 1.8 and 6.8 per cent below
the levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
respectively. Similarly, at the interbank segment, the naira
exchanged at an average of N162.78 to the US dollar,
indicating a depreciation of 2.2 and 3.2 per cent from the
levels in the fourth and the corresponding quarters of 2013,
repsectively (Fig. 19, Table 17).
The premium between the rDAS and the bureau-de-change
rates widened from 6.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013
to 8.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2014. Simialrly, the
premium between the rDAS and interbank also widened from
1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 3.5 per cent in the
review quarter (Fig. 20, ).
The average Naira
exchange rate visà-vis the US dollar
appreciated at the
rDAS segment of
the market but
depreciated at the
BDC and interbank
segments of the
foreign exchange
market Q1 2014.
The premium
between the rDAS
rates and the BDC
and interbank rates
widened in the
review quarter.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
N/US $
Average WDAS/RDAS
Average BDC
Average Interbank

Table 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
RDAS

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
RDAS/BDC

RDAS/Interbank


Figure 20: Exchange Rate Premium

Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Percent
WDAS/BDC
WDAS/Interbank


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Economic Report First Quarter

5.5
Gross External Reserves
Gross external reserves at the end of the first quarter of 2014
stood at US$37.40 billion, indicating a decline of 12.7 per cent
below the level recorded at the end of the fourth quarter of
2013. A breakdown of the reserves showed that CBN reserves
stood at US$31.54 billion (84.3 per cent), Federation reserves
was US$2.79 billion (7.5 per cent) and the Federal Government
reserves was US$3.07 billion (8.2 per cent) (Fig. 21, Table 19).
Figure 21: Gross External Reserves
+
Table 18: Gross External Reserves (US$ million)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
External Reserves
35,190.8

35,412.5

40,636.8

43,830.4

47,884.1

44,957.0

44,108.5

42,847.3

37,400.8


Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
US$ million
Gross external
reserves declined
during the first
quarter of 2014.
.


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6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that global output growth was
expected to accelerate in 2014. Global output growth in 2014
was projected at 3.7 per cent, following increased global
activity recorded in the second half of 2013. The development
was attributed to expected increase in aggregate demand in
the advanced economies and anticipated continuous
rebound in exports in emerging economies.
The US economy was reported to have grown at a much
slower rate in the fourth quarter of 2013 due, largely to weaker
estimated consumer spendings. However, modest growth was
recorded in manufacturing in the first quarter of 2014. The
Institute for Supply Management growth index rose from 53.2
in February to 53.7 in March. The development was attributed
to the strengthening productivity in factories as they recover
from the effects of severe winter weather shutdowns. Similarly,
construction spending was reported to have risen, boosted by
building of hotels, motels and non-residential buildings, and
increased spending on government projects.
Data from the Statistical Office of the European Union
(Eurostat), indicated that underlying price pressures in the euro
area remained weak and monetary and credit dynamics
were subdued. The European Central Bank, however, noted
that moderate recovery of the euro area economy is
proceeding in line with the Governing Council‟s previous
assessment. During the review period, the final Markit's
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at
53.0, while the output price sub-index fell below the 50 mark
that separates growth from contraction for the first time since
August 2013. France showed further signs of recovery and
German growth remained strong. Italy's PMI rose to a twomonth high and Spain's to a 47-month peak.
Developments in the United Kingdom economy was mixed.
The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for
manufacturing fell further to 62.6 in February, due to
disruptions relating to "adverse weather conditions". However,


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Economic Report First Quarter

the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.9 in February
from 56.6 in January. Jobs growth in the sector rose at its
fastest rate since May 2011. However, growth in new export
orders slowed, due partly to the appreciation of the currency.
In China, developments in the world's second-largest
economy were also mixed. The manufacturing sector
contracted in March as the HSBC PMI gave a reading of 48.1
for March, compared with 48.5 in February. In another
development, the official non-manufacturing PMI rose to a
three-month high of 55.0 in February, while the final
Markit/HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to
48.5, its third straight decline.
In Japan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
data showed that industrial output fell by 2.3 per cent in
February 2014, in contrast to 3.8 per cent growth in January
2014. The METI, however, noted that it expected output to rise
by 0.9 per cent in March 2014. In India, the Commerce Ministry
reported that the wholesale-price index moderated to a ninemonth low of 4.7 per cent in February 2014, compared with
5.05 per cent in January. This was attributed to higher
borrowing costs which damped price pressures ahead of
national elections in April 2014.
Rebound in exports of goods and services in Brazil, and
expected pursuit of economic recovery plans in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA) heightened growth prospects in
the areas. The Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to have
grown by 5.1 per cent in 2013, from 4.8 per cent recorded in
2012. The strong performance was based on the ongoing
investment
in
infrastructure
and
productive
capacity,
continuing robust consumption, and the activation of new
capacity in extractive sectors. This was expected to
accentuate continuous growth in 2014.
6.2 Global Inflation
Available data showed that the US annual consumer prices
accelerated to 1.5 per cent in March. This was attributed to
higher shelter and food cost. On a monthly basis, the inflation
rate edged up to 0.2 per cent, following a 0.1 per cent
increase in February. The Eurostat estimate puts the inflation
rate in the euroarea at 0.7 per cent in February, down from


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Economic Report First Quarter

0.8% in January and well below the European Central Bank
target of just below 2.0 per cent. However, the euroarea
economy was experiencing a prolonged period of low
inflation, expected to be followed by a gradual upward
movement towards a 2.0 per cent target.
Meanwhile, China also set its inflation goal at 3.5 per cent,
aimed at keeping prices under control. Following years of high
positive growth rates, China experienced a fall in its rate of
expansion in recent years, due to a slowdown domestically
and in key markets abroad. In Japan, the consumer price
inflation moderated marginally to 1.4 per cent in January 2014
from 1.6 per cent in December 2013 on year-on-year.
Meanwhile, in India report showed that consumer-price
inflation slowed to 8.1 per cent in February, the lowest in more
than two years from 8.79 per cent in January as food costs
eased.
Statistics South Africa reported that headline consumer
inflation quickened in February to 5.9 per cent year-on-year as
expected, from 5.8 per cent in January.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
World crude oil demand was estimated at 90.20 mbd in the
first quarter of 2014, representing a decrease of 0.8 per cent
below the 90.93 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of
2013. However, world crude oil supply was estimated at an
average of 90.80 mbd, representing an increase of 0.5 per
cent above the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.
The development was attributed to concerns about China‟s
slower economic growth, geopolitical tension in Ukraine and
low consumption of transportation fuel due to exceptional
cold snaps in the Northern Hemisphere (for instance, slow
down oil demand momentum in the US).
The OPEC Reference Basket price of eleven selected crude
streams stood at $105.98 per barrel in the first quarter of 2014,
from $107.67/b in the fourth quarter of 2013. The decline in
price was attributed to a sluggish global crude oil market,
impacted by concerns over China‟s economic growth, lower
refinery demand and ample availability, as countries like the
US continue to drawdown on oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma.


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The prices of the UK Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and
the Forcados, also declined to close at US$107.35, US$92.86
and US$110.33 per barrel, respectively.
6.4 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy during the
review quarter included: the Meeting of the G20 Finance
Minister and Central Bank Governors held in Sydney from
February 22-23, 2014. The meeting focused on global growth in
relation to the G20 Countries and agreed to intensify efforts to
substantially complete key aspects of the reforms outlined at
the Brisbane summit in response to the global financial crisis.
Similarly, the first 2014 Ordinary Meeting of the Bureau of the
Association of African Central Banks (AACB) was held on
February 26, 2014 at the Head Office of the Central Bank of
West African States (BCEAO) Dakar, Senegal. The Meeting,
which was preceded by the Technical Committee Meeting,
held
on
February

–
25,
reviewed
the
level
of
implementation of the decisions made by the Assembly of
Governors at its 37th Ordinary Meeting held in Mauritius in
August 2013 and the level of implementation of the African
Monetary Cooperation Programme (AMCP). At the end of the
meeting, members adopted the Reports of the Symposium
and the 37th Ordinary Assembly meeting; and the Work plan
(2014 - 2016), including the internal rules of the Community of
African Banking Supervisors, pending approval by the
Assembly of Governors.
Furthermore, the inaugural meeting of the Presidential Task
Force on the ECOWAS Monetary Cooperation Programme
was held in Niamey, Republic Of Niger, from February 20-21,
2014. The purpose of the Meeting was to deliberate on the
status of implementation of various member countries on the
convergence criteria towards attaining a Single Currency
Union in the sub-region. As part of the efforts at proffering
solutions
to
the constarints
inhibiting progress
of
the
convergence, the ECOWAS Commission presented four
options
as
modalities
for
accelerating
the
monetary
integration process. The meeting concluded with members


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Economic Report First Quarter

agreeing that they should continue to work towards the
deadline target of 2020 for the Monetary Union project.
Moreover, the 22nd Assembly of Heads of State and
Government of the African Union was held in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia from January 21 – 31, 2014. The theme of the Summit
was
“Transforming
Africa‟s
Agriculture:
Harnessing
Opportunities
for
Inclusive
Growth
and
Sustainable
Development”. Similalrly, the 2013 Statutory Meetings of the
West African Monetary Agency (WAMA), West African
Monetary Institute (WAMI) and West African Institute for
Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) were held in
Banjul, The Gambia from January 8 - 17, 2014.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Union
Commission (AUC) on January 29, 2014 signed a new project
grant. The project would strengthen the capacity of African
countries
through
their
respective
Regional
Economic
Communities (Community of Sahel-Saharan States).
Finally, the 7th Joint Annual Meetings of AU/ECA Conference
of Ministers of Finance, Planning & Economic Development
was held at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria from
March 29 – 30, 2014. The theme of the Conference was
“Industrialization for Inclusive and Transformative Development
in Africa”.


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APPENDIX TABLES


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Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank

DMBs

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Banks' Deposit with CBN

N billion


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Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
-
-
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/


Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)


DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foeign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Crude

Others/SURE-P

Expenditure

Recurrent

Capital

Transfers

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


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