ECONOMIC REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2013


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
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Contents


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Text Tables


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Appendix Tables

Figures


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1.0 Summary
Available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed
that gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by
6.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2013, compared with 6.2 per cent
in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed, largely,
to the increase in the contribution of the non-oil sector.
Broad money supply, (M2), fell by 7.8 per cent at the end of the third
quarter, compared with the decline of 0.5 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter, but contrasted with the increase of 4.3 per cent
recorded at the end of the corresponding period of 2012. The
development, relative to the preceding quarter reflected largely
the 1.5 and 13.9 per cent fall in domestic credit (net) and other asset
(net) of the banking system, repsetcively. Similarly, narrow money
supply, (M1), fell by 9.3 per cent, in contrast to the growth of 0.02 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter. Reserve money (RM) rose
at the end of the third quarter of 2013.
Available data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit
and lending rates. The spread between the weighted average term
deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.20 percentage
point during the review quarter. Similarly, the margin between the
average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates narrowed
by 0.76 per centage point. The weighted average inter-bank call
rate rose by 2.34 percentage points in the third quarter of 2013,
reflecting the liquidity condition in the inter-bank funds market.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets
outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2013 increased by 0.34
per cent to N6,569.5 billion, compared with the increase of 5.96 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the 94.13 and 53.15 per cent increase in Commercial
Paper and Banker’s Acceptances outstanding. Activities on the
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in the third quarter 2013 indicated
mixed developments.
Total federally-collected revenue at the end of the third quarter of
2013 declined by 4.2 per cent below the quaterly budget estimate,
but was 14.4 per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter
of 2012. Oil receipts, which constituted 59.7 per cent of the total,
declined below the budget estimate and receipts in the preceding
quarter by 16.1 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The decrease in oil
receipts was attributed to the fall in all components of oil revenue
except crude oil and gas exports during the review quarter.
Non-oil receipts was above the budget estimate and receipts in the


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preceding quarter by 21.3 and 95.3 per cent, respectively. Federal
Government retained revenue was N964.86 billion, while total
expenditure was N1,078.91 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the
Federal Government resulted in an estimated deficit of N114.05
billion or 0.95 per cent of estimated nominal GDP for third quarter
2013, compared with the quarterly budget deficit of N221.77 billion
or 1.9 per cent of estimated GDP.
Stable and widespread rainfall was a major driver of
agricultural activities in most parts of the country in the third
quarter of 2013. Activities in the sector was dominated by
harvesting of maize, yam and vegetables. Nigeria’s crude oil
production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was
estimated at an average of 1.89 million barrels per day (mbd) or
173.88 million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export stood at 1.44
mbd or 132.48 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries to the
refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or 41.40
million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the
Bonny Light (370 API) rose by 7.4 per cent above the level in the
preceding quarter.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 8.0 per
cent, compared with 8.4 and 11.3 per cent recorded at the end of
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis
was 9.5 per cent, compared with 10.4 and 11.9 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$12.01 billion and US$12.65 billion,
respectively, resulting in a net outflow of US$0.64 billion during the
review quarter. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorized dealers amounted to US$10.771 billion, compared with
US$10.772 billion in the preceding quarter. The average exchange
rate of the Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the wDAS window was
N157.32 per US dollar, compared with N157.30 and N157.39 per US
dollar in the preceding and the corresponding period of 2012,
repsetcively. In the bureau-de-change and the interbank segments
of the market, the Naira depreiciated by 1.5 and 1.7 per cent,
respectively, compared with their levels in the preceding quarter.
Available data showed that global growth remained low, averaging
2.5 per cent during the first half of 2013. While growth in advanced
economies recently gained some speed, it slowed in emerging
economies. Inflation continued to decelerate in advanced


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economies, while it moderated in emerging markets.
World crude oil demand in the third quarter of 2013 increased by 1.4
per cent above the level recorded in the preceeding quarter.
Similarly, world crude oil output increased by 0.2 per cent over the
level recorded in the preceeding quarter. The increase in demand
was attributed to improvement in the US economy and higher oil
demand from the Chinese economy. The OPEC reference basket
price of eleven selected crude streams rose by 6.0 and 0.2 per cent
above its levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively. The prices of the UK Brent, the WTI and
the Forcados also exhibited similar trend.
Other major international economic developments and meetings of
importance to the domestic economy during the review quarter
included: the meeting of the African Caucus comprising African
Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in
Khartoum, Sudan from August 21 – 22, 2013. Also, the 7th Annual
Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Conference of the
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), adjoined with the D-8 Workshop on
Microfinance for SMEs, was held in Abuja, Nigeria from August 15 -16,
2013.
The ECOWAS-WAMA-WAMI Joint Multilateral Surveillance Mission to
Nigeria was conducted from August 26 to September 2, 2013, in
compliance with the decision of the Convergence Council of
Ministers and Governors of the Central Banks of the ECOWAS
Member States in 2009. The purpose of the Mission was to assess the
country’s performance on the macroeconomic convergence
criteria and policy harmonisation as well as institutional frameworks
for the establishment of economic and monetary union in the
ECOWAS region in 2013.
Moreover, the meetings of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ),
the West African Monetary Agency (WAMA) and the West African
Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) was
held in Accra, Ghana, from July 17 – 26, 2013. Finally, the 6th
Meeting of the Inter-Institutional Technical Sub-Committee on the
Road Map for the ECOWAS Single Currency Programme was held in
Accra, Ghana from July 29 – 30, 2013.


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2.0 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
Provisional data indicated that the major monetary aggregate
declined at the end of the third quarter of 2013. Banks’ deposit and
lending rates generally exhibited mixed developments during the
review quarter. The value of money market assets outstanding
increased, due largely, to the increase in Commercial Paper and
Bankers’ Acceptances outstanding. Developments on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed during the review quarter.
Provisional
data
indicated
that
the
major
monetary
aggregate declined at the end of the third quarter of 2013
relative to the level at the end of the preceding quarter.
Broad money supply, (M2), fell by 7.84 per cent to N14,371.4
billion at end-September 2013, compared with the decline of
0.48 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development, however, contrasted with the 4.32 per cent
growth recorded at the end of the corresponding period of
2012 and reflected largely the 1.45 and 13.97 per cent fall in
domestic credit (net) and other assets (net) of the banking
system. Over the level at end-December 2012, growth in M2
decelerated by 7.18 per cent, owing largely to the decline in
other assets (net), which more than offset the effect of the
increase in net domestic credit.
At N6,296.1 billion, narrow money supply fell by 9.27 per cent
at the end of the third quarter of 2013, in contrast to the
increase of 0.02 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed wholly to the 11.75 per cent
decline in its demand deposit component. Similarly, over the
level at end-December 2012, narrow money supply (M1)
contracted by 15.16 per cent, due to the decline of 10.30 and
16.19 per cent in its currency and demand deposit
components, respectively.
Quasi money, at N8,075.3 billion, fell by 6.68 per cent,
compared with the decline of 0.88 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter, but contrasted with the 11.46 per cent
increase recorded at the end of the corresponding period of
2012. The development, relative to the preceding quarter was
attributed to the decline in time and savings deposits in banks.
Relative to the level at end-December 2012, quasi money
Growth in key
monetary aggregates
fell during Q3 2013.


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grew by 0.15 per cent (Fig. 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1
-10
-5

-10
-5

Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)

At N13,101.6 billion, aggregate banking system‟s credit (net)
to the domestic economy, fell by 1.45 per cent at the end of
the third quarter of 2013, in contrast to the increase of 4.34 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The development
relative to the preceding quarter was due largely, to the 33.08
per cent decline in claims on the Federal Government, which
more than offset the effect of the 3.83 per cent rise in claims
on private sector. Over the level at end-December 2012,
aggregate banking system‟s credit (net) to the domestic
economy, rose by 3.18 per cent, due largely to the 7.5 per
cent increase in claims on the private sector.
Banking system‟s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at
the end of the review quarter, fell by 33.08 per cent to
negative N3,190.7 billion, compared with the decline of 21.52
per cent in the corresponding period of 2012. This contrasted
with the growth of 4.9 per cent recorded at the end of the
preceding
quarter.
The
development
relative
to
the

1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).

Banking system credit
to the federal
government fell at the
end of the third
quarter of 2013.


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preceding quarter was accounted for, largely, by the 120.48
per cent decline in holdings of treasury instruments by the
banking system. Over the level at end-December 2012, credit
(net) to the Federal Government fell by 30.04 per cent,
reflecting largely the decline in banking system‟s holding of
Federal Government securities.
At the end of third quarter of 2013, banking system‟s credit to
the private sector rose by 3.8 per cent to N16,292.3 billion,
compared with the increase of 2.8 and 0.4 per cent at the
end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2012, respectively. The development, relative to the
preceding quarter reflected the increase in claims on both
the core private sector and State and Local Government.
Relative to the level at end-December 2012, banking system‟s
credit to the private sector rose by 7.5 per cent (Fig. 2, Table
1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2


Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)

At N8,926.6 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
fell by 1.0 per cent at the end of the review quarter,
compared with the decline of 6.9 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter, but contrasted with the 10.4 per cent

2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP,
CCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date).
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system fell at the
end of the review
quarter.


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increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2012. The
development,
relative
to
the
preceding
quarter
was
attributed, largely, to the 3.2 per cent decline in CBN‟s
holdings of foreign assets. Over the level at end-December
2012, foreign assets (net) of the banking system fell by 1.3 per
cent.
At the end of the review quarter, other assets (net) of the
banking system fell by 13.9 per cent to negative N7,656.8
billion, compared with the decline of 0.08 per cent at the end
of the corresponding period of 2012, but contrasted with the
0.6 per cent growth recorded at the end of the preceding
quarter. The decline, relative to the preceding quarter,
reflected, largely, the fall in unclassified assets of both the CBN
and the DMBs during the review period. Over the level at endDecember 2012, other assets (net) of the banking system fell
by 22.4 per cent.
Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Percent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


2.2
Currency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at
the CBN
At N1,474.1 billion, currency-in-circulation rose by 3.4 per cent
at the end of the third quarter of 2013, in contrast to the
decline of 5.5 and 1.1 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter and corresponding period of 2012, respectively. The
development,
relative
to
the
preceding
quarter
was
attributed, largely, to the 3.5 per cent increase in currency
outside the banks.


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Total deposits at the CBN increased by 14.8 per cent to
N7,016.3 billion, in contrast to the decline of 10.2 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter. The development reflected
largely, the 75.4 per cent rise in banks‟ deposit, which more
that offset the 32.5 and 8.0 per cent decline in the deposits of
„others‟ and Federal Government, respectively. Of the total
deposits, the shares of the Federal Government, banks and
„‟Others‟‟ were N3,516.1 billion (50.1 per cent), N3,175.9 billion
(45.3 per cent) and N323.7 billion (4.6 per cent), respectively.
Reserve money (RM), at N4,649.9 billion, rose by 43.7 per cent,
in contrast to the 17.3 per cent decline recorded in the
preceding quarter. The development, relative to preceding
quarter, was attributed to the increase in currency-in-
circulation and banks‟ deposit with the CBN.
2.3
Money Market Developments
Money market rates were influenced by the liquidity condition
in the banking system arising from the introduction of the 50.00
per cent CRR on all public sector deposits, coupled with the
delay in the release of fiscal allocation. Monetary Policy
stance remained largely restrictive as the Monetary Policy
Rate (MPR) was maintained at 12.0 per cent during the review
quarter. The Liquidity Ratio (L/R), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
and the Net Open Position were also retained at their
preceding quarter‟s levels of 30.0, 12.0 and 1.0 per cent,
respectively. Open market operations were conducted for
various maturities for liquidty management. The Bank‟s
discount window also remained open to authorized dealers to
access both the standing deposit facility (SDF) and standing
lending facility (SLF). Overall, developments in money market
indicators were mixed in the review quarter.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market
assets outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2013
stood at N6,569.5 billion, showing an increase of 0.34 per cent,
compared with the increase of 5.96 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed, to the
94.13 and 53.15 per cent increase in banks‟ investments in
Commercial Paper and Banker‟s Acceptances outstanding
during the review period.
Reserve money
(RM)rose at the
end of the third
quarter of 2013.
Developments in
the money market
were mixed during
the review period.


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2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Available data indicated mixed developments in banks‟
deposit and lending rates during the third quarter of 2013. With
the exception of the average savings deposit rate, which rose
to 2.44 per cent from 2.04 per cent in the second quarter of
2013, all other rates on deposits of various maturities fell from a
range of 5.69 – 7.72 per cent to a range of 4.92 - 7.55 per cent
in the third quarter of 2013. Similarly, at 6.42 per cent, the
average term deposit rate fell by 0.15 percentage point
below the level in the preceding quarter. The prime and
maximum lending rates fell by 0.01 and 0.35 percentage
points to 16.61 and 24.21 per cent, respectively, in the third
quarter of 2013. Consequently, the spread between the
weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates
narrowed by 0.20 percentage point to 17.79 per cent from
17.98 per cent in the preceding quarter. The margin between
the average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates,
also narrowed by 0.76 percentage point to 21.77 per cent
from 22.52 per cent. With the headline inflation rate at 8.0 per
cent at end-September 2013, all rates, with the exception of
the lending rates, were negative in real terms.
At the interbank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 11.69 per cent at the end of the
second quarter of 2013, rose by 2.34 percentage points to
14.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2013, reflecting the
liquidity condition in the banking system. Similarly, the
weighted average rate at the Open Buy Back (OBB) segment
rose to 14.14 per cent at the end of the review quarter from
11.27 per cent in the preceding quarter. The Nigeria Inter-bank
Offered Rate (NIBOR) for the 7-day and 30-day tenors rose to
13.79 and 13.95 per cent from 12.19 and 12.46 per cent,
respectively, in the preceding quarter (Fig. 3, Table 2).

The spread between
the weighted –
average term deposit
and maximum lending
rates narrowed
during the review
Interbank call
rate increased in
Q3 2013.


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Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits

Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending


2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
The value of Commercial Paper (CP) held by the banks rose
by 94.1 per cent to N29.1 billion at the end of the third quarter
of 2013, compared with N15.0 billion at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was due to the increase
in holding of CP by the banks during the review period. Thus,
CP constituted 0.44 per cent of the total value of money
market assets outstanding, compared with 0.23 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
The value of BAs held by DMBs increased by 53.2 per cent to
N24.5 billion at the end of the review quarter, compared with
the increase of 58.1 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter. The development reflected increase in investments in
BAs by the banks. Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.37 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding at
the end of the review quarter, compated with 0.24 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter.
Investment in
CP by banks
rose in the third
quarter of 2013.
Banks’ holdings of
BAs increased
during Q3 of 2013.


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2.3.4
Open Market Operations
Bills of various maturities, ranging from 55 - 227 days, were used
for liquidity management during the review period. Total sales
in the third quarter of 2013 amounted to N750.98 billion, while
total subscription was N1,512.42 billion, compared with
N2,726.04 billion and N4,210.29 billion allotted and subscruibed
to, repsetcively, in the preceding quarter. The bid rates
ranged from 11.50 – 14.00 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 12.00 – 13.20 per cent, compared with 11.50013.299 per cent in the preceding qaurter. Matured bills worth
N1,529.38 billion were repaid during the period, resulting in a
net injection of N778.40 billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day
tenors, amounting to N739.37 billion, N1,867.04 billion and
N739.37 billion, were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, in the third quarter of 2013, compared with the
respective sums of N1,000.0 billion, N1,752.99 billion and
N1,000.0 billion in the preceding quarter. The bid rates ranged
from 10.000 - 17.019, 10.000 - 19.999 and 10.500 - 20.000 per
cent, for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenor, respectively, while
the stop rates ranged from 10.85 – 13.34 per cent.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
FGN Bonds of 3-, 5-, and 20-year tranches were re-opened
and auctioned during the third quarter of 2013. The total
amount offered, subscribed to and allotted for the three
tranches were N195.00 billion, N388.51 billion, and N182.73
billion, respectively, compared with N299.80 billion, N517.89
billion and N235.61 billion recorded in the preceding quarter.
The marginal rates ranged between 13.050 – 13.799 per cent
for all the tenors, compared with the range of 11.19 – 13.50
per cent obtained in the preceding quarter. The amount sold
showed a further decline of 22.4 per cent, compared with a
decline of 17.3 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The total Standing Lending Facility (SLF) granted during the
review period was N5,747.88 billion, compared with N2,561.69
billion in the preceding quarter. This indicated an increase of
124.4 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter. The
total Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) was N14,368.61 billion
Subscription for FGN
Bonds of various
maturities declined
during the third
quarter of 2013.


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during the third quarter of 2013, representing an increae of
135.1 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter. The
significant increase in activities in the standing facilities
window was attributed, mainly, to the banks‟ preference for
depositing their overnight balances at the discount window
rather than placing at the interbank.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
Available data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of
the DMBs stood at N23,301.4 billion at the end of the third
quarter of 2013, representing an increase of 3.4 per cent over
the level at the end of the preceding quarter. The funds,
which were sourced, largely, from increased mobilization of
demand deposit and unclassified liabilities, were used for
accretion to reserves, extension of credit and acquisition of
foreign and unclassified assests.
At N11,272.0 billion, banks‟ credit to the domestic economy,
declined by 5.8 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed, largely, to the 125.8
per cent decline in claims on the Federal Government.
Central Bank‟s credit to the banks rose by 1.5 per cent to
N233.4 billion at the end of the review quarter, reflecting the
decline in overdrafts to banks, while total specified liquid
assets of the DMBs stood at N5,992.8 billion, representing 37.7
per cent of their total current liabilities. At that level, the
liquidity ratio, fell by 18.4 percentage points below the level in
the preceding quarter, but was 7.7 percentage points above
the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-todeposit ratio, at 33.4 per cent, was 10.5 and 46.6 percentage
points below the levels at the end of the preceding quarter
and the prescribed maximum ratio of 80.0 per cent,
respectively.
2.5
Discount Houses’ Activities
Total assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N202.83
billion at the end of the third quarter of 2013, indicating a
decline of 41.1 and 30.3 per cent below the levels at the end
of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012, respectively. The fall in assets relative to the preceding
At 37.7 per cent, the
liquidity ratio in Q3
2013 was 7.7
percentage points
above the stipulated
minimum ratio,
while the Loan-todeposit ratio fell
below the
prescribed maximum
of 80 per cent by
46.6 percentage
points.


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quarter was accounted for, largely, by the significant
decrease in claims on “Federal Government” “Banks” and
“Others Assets”, which more than offset the effect of the
marginal rise in claims on the State Governments and Fixed
Assets. Correspondingly, the fall in total liabilities was
attributed to the decrease in money at call, other amount
owed and other liabilities, which exceeded the increase in
capital and reserves.
Discount houses‟ investment in Federal Government securities
of less than 91-day maturity declined significantly by 77.5 per
cent to N33.4 billion and represented 22.6 per cent of their
total deposit liabilities. At this level, discount houses‟
investment was 37.4 percentage points below the prescribed
minimum level of 60.0 per cent for fiscal 2013. Total borrowing
by the discount houses was N41.7 billion, while their capital
and reserves stood at N41.9 billion. This resulted in a gearing
ratio of 1.0:1, compared with the stipulated maximum of 50:1
for fiscal 2013.
2.6
Capital Market Developments
2.6.1
Secondary Market
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed
during the third quarter of 2013. Available data indicated that
the volume and value of traded securities declined by 17.6
and 41.5 per cent to 21.8 billion shares, valued at N196.8
billion, respectively, in 325,742 deals. The financial services
sector led the activity chart as the most active on the
Exchange (measured by turnover volume) with a traded
volume of 12.6 billion shares, valued at N104.8 billion in 176,601
deals, compared with 18.4 billion shares, valued at N148.7
billion in 195,767 deals recorded in the preceding quarter. This
was followed by the conglomerates sector. The Banking
subsector of the Financial Services sector was the most active
subsector on the quarter‟s activity chart.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)

Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)


2.6.2
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Bonds Market
At the end of the third quarter of 2013, provisional data
indicated that transactions in the Over-the-Counter (OTC)
bond market, recorded a turnover of 1.67 billion units, worth
N1.76 trillion, in 10,321 deals, compared with 2.22 billion units,
worth N2.63 trillion, in 13,396 deals recorded in the preceding
quarter.
2.6.3
New Issues Market
There was one (1) new and five (5) supplementary listings in
the review quarter (see table below).
Table 4: New and Supplementary Listings on the Nigeria Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing

Courteville Buisness Solutions
592 million shares
Bonus Issue
Supplementary

UPDC Real Estate Investment and Trust
2.668 billion shares
New Issue
New

Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc
12.907 billion shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary

African Paints Nigeria Plc
108 million shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated
3.125 billion shares
placing
Supplementary

Wapic Insurance Plc
5.444 billion shares
rights Issue
Supplementary


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

2.6.4
Market Capitalization
The total market capitalization of all the listed securities
(equities and debt) stood at N17.73 trillion at the end of the
review quarter, indicating an increase of 12.4 per cent over
the
level
in
the
preceding
quarter.
Similarly,
market
capitalization for the listed equities stood at N11.4 trillion,
representing an increase of 2.3 per cent over the level at the
end of the preceding quarter. The equities sub-sector,
accounted for 65.7 per cent of the aggregate market
capitalization on the Exchange, compared with 72.4 per cent
in the preceding quarter.
2.6.5
NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 36,164.31 at the
beginning of the quarter, closed at 36,585, representing an
increase of 1.2 per cent over the level at the end of the
preceding quarter. At end-September 2013, four of the seven
(7) sectoral indices appreciated. The NSE Consumer Goods,
NSE Oil/Gas, NSE Lotus Islamic and NSE Industrial Goods indices
rose by 1.4, 6.5, 2.3 and 5.5 per cent, to close at 1,032.6, 182.8,
2,574.9 and 2,209.2, respectively, at the end of the review
period. However, the NSE Banking, NSE ASeM and NSE
Insurance indices depreciated by 3.3, 1.4 and 0.3 per cent,
respectively, to close at 389.2, 962.3 and 138.1 at the end of
the third quarter.

Total Market
capitalization and AllShare Index increasd
during Q3 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index


Q3-11
Q4-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)

Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Market Capitalization (N trilion)

Al-Share Index (Equities)
23,373.00

20,730.60

29,652.50

21,599.60

26,022.60

28,078.80

33,536.25

36,164.31

36,585.08


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Economic Report Third Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations
3.1
Federation Account Operations
Available data showed that total federally-collected revenue
during the third quarter of 2013 stood at N2,716.43 billion,
representing a decline of 4.2 and 1.58 per cent below the
quarterly budget estimate and the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively. However, relative to the level in
the preceding quarter, total federally-colllected revenue rose
by 14.4 per cent (Fig. 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Oil Revenue Gross
Non-Oil Revenue

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)

Oil Revenue

Non-Oil Revenue


At N1,622.79 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 59.7
per cent of the total, declined below the proportionate
budget estimate and the level in the preceding quarter by
16.1 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The development relative
to the preceding quarter was attributed to the decline in most
of the components of oil revenue during the review quarter
Gross federally
collected revenue
rose by 14.4 per cent
above the level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

(Fig. 7, Table 7).

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components
-


Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
N billion
Others
PPT/Royalties
Crude oil/Gas Sales

Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)


Non-oil receipts (gross), at N1,093.64 billion (40.3 per cent of
the total), was above the proportionate budget estimate and
the level in the preceding quarter by 21.3 and 95.3 per cent,
respectively. The increase in non-oil revenue relative to the
preceding quarter reflected, largely, the rise in receipts from
corporate
tax,
independent
revenue
of
the
Federal
Government, education tax and customs levies (Fig. 8, Table
8).
As a percentage of projected third quarter 2013 nominal GDP,
oil and non-oil revenue were 13.6 and 9.2 per cent,
respectively.
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Oil Revenue

Crude oil/Gas Sales

PPT/Royalties

Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and its Components
-

1,000
1,200
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
N billion
Others
Customs & Excise Duties
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Table 8 Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Non-Oil Revenue

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes

Customs & Excise Duties

Others


Of the gross federally-collected revenue during the review
quarter, the sum of N1,611.55 billion (after accounting for all
deductions and transfers) was transferred to the Federation
Account for distribution among the three tiers of government
and the 13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government
received
N769.83
billion,
while
the
states
and
local
governments received N390.47 billion and N301.03 billion,
respectively. The balance of N150.22 billion went to the 13.0%
Derivation Fund for distribution to the oil-producing states.
Also, the Federal Government received N27.99 billion from the
VAT Pool Account, while the states and local governments
received N93.31 billion and N65.32 billion, respectively.
The sum of N106.65 billion was also distributed as the Subsidy
Re-Investment
and
Empowerment
Programme
(SURE-P)
among the three tiers of government and the 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: Federal Government (N48.88 billion), State
Governments (N24.79 billion), Local Governments (N19.11
billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N13.86 billion).
The sum of
N1,611.55
billion out of
the federally
collected
revenue was set
aside for
distribution by
the three tiers
of government
and the 13.0 %
Derivation Fund
for oil
producing
states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

In addition, the sum of N22.85 billion from NNPC Refund was
shared by the sub-national governments and 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: State Governments (N11.23 billion), Local
Governments (N8.65 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N2.97
billion). Thus, the total allocation to the three tiers of
government in the third quarter of 2013 amounted to
N1,927.68 billion. This was below the 2013 quarterly budget
estimate by 7.0 per cent.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government

At N964.86 billion, the Federal Government retained revenue
for the third quarter of 2013 was lower than the proportionate
budget estimate by 21.3 per cent, but exceeded the receipts
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012 by 9.0 and 9.2 per cent, respectively. Of this amount, the
Federal Government share from the Federation Account, VAT
Pool Account, FGN Independent Revenue and Sure-P were
N769.83 billion, N27.99 billion, N118.16 billion and N48.88
billion, respectively (Fig. 9, Table 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue
Federation Account (79.8%)
VAT Pool
Account (2.90)
SURE-P (5.1%)
FGN Independent
Revenue (12.2%))

Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Retained Revenue

Expenditure

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


Federal government
estimated retained
revenue and total
expenditure were
lower than the
proportionate budget
estimate for the
quarter.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Total estimated expenditure for the third quarter 2013 stood at
N1,078.91 billion, indicating a decline of 25.5 and 6.1 per cent
below the quarterly budget estimate and the the level in the
preceding quarter, respectively. The development relative to
the quarterly budget estimate was attributed to the decline in
both recurrent and capital components during the period. A
breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the recurrent
component accounted for 69.5 per cent, while capital and
statutory transfers components accounted for 24.0 and 6.5 per
cent, repectively (Fig. 10). Further breakdown of the recurrent
expenditure
showed
that
the
non-debt
component
accounted for 79.0 per cent, while debt service payments
accounted for the balance of 21.0 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N114.05 billion or 0.95 per cent of
GDP, compared with a proportionate budget deficit of
N221.77 billion or 1.9 per cent of GDP for the third quarter 2013.
Figure10: Federal Government Expenditure
Recurrent
Capital
Transfers
Capital
(24.0%)
Transfers
(6.5%)
Recurrent (69.5%)


3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

Total
allocation
to
state
governments
(including
the
Federation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and VAT) stood at
N686.86 billion during the review quarter. This represented a
decline of 4.1 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter, but an increase of 14.2 per cent over the level in the
corresponding quarter of 2012.
The fiscal operations
of the FG resulted in
an estimated deficit
of N114.05 billion in
Q3 2013.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Further breakdown showed that, at N593.54 billion, receipts
from the Federation Account constituted 86.4 per cent of the
total, indicating a decline of 4.8 per cent below the level in
the preceding quarter, but an increase of 14.5 per cent
above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012. At
N93.31 billion, receipts from the VAT Pool Account, constituted
13.5 per cent of the total, indicating an increase of 0.4 and
12.0 per cent relative to the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. On a
monthly basis, the sum of N243.55 billion, N213.80 billion and
N229.51 billion was allocated as statutory allocations and VAT
receipts to the 36 state governments in July, August and
September 2013, respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils

Total receipts by the local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts during the third quarter of 2013, stood
at N394.12 billion. This amount was below the level in the
preceding quarter by 6.7 per cent, but exceeded the level in
the corresponding quarter of 2012 by 15.2 per cent. Of the
total amount, allocation from the Federation Account was
N328.0 billion (83.4 per cent), while VAT Pool Account
accounted for the balance of N65.32 billion (16.6 per cent).
On a monthly basis, the sum of N141.43 billion, N123.15 billion
and N129.54 billion was allocated to the 774 local
governments
in
July,
August
and
September
2013,
respectively.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Provisional data showed that aggregate output measured by real
gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.9 per cent, compared with
6.2 per cent in the preceding quarter. The development was driven,
largely, by the growth in the non-oil sector. Crude oil production was
estimated at 1.89 million barrels per day (mbd) or 173.88 million
barrels for the quarter. The end-period inflation rate for the third
quarter of 2013, on year-on-year basis, was 8.0 per cent, compared
with 8.4 and 11.3 per cent a the end of the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The inflation rate on
a 12-month moving average basis was 9.5 per cent, compared with
10.4 and 11.9 per cent in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2012, respectively.
4.1
Aggregate Output
Provisional data showed that in the third quarter of 2013,
output measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), grew
by 6.9 per cent, compared with the 6.2 per cent recorded in
the preceding quarter. The development was attributed
largely to the growth in the contribution of the non-oil sector.
Real non-oil GDP grew at 8.0 per cent and accounted for 87.4
per cent of total GDP in the review quarter. Real oil GDP,
comprising crude petroleum and natural gas, grew by 0.1 per
cent and accounted for 12.6 per cent of GDP, in contrast to
the decline of 1.2 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter
of 2013 (Fig. 11, Table 10).


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 11: Real GDP Growth Rate and Share of Oil and Non-oil in GDP

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
% of GDP
Percent
Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
Non-Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
GDP Growth (LHS)
Oil GDP Growth(LHS)
Non-oil GDP Growth (LHS)


Table 10: Growth Rate of Real GDP and Sectoral Shares (Percent)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Growth Rate (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-oil

Share in Real GDP (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-Oil

Agricultural Sector
Available data indicated that stable and widespread rainfall
in the third quarter of 2013 provided a major boost to
agricultural activities in most parts of the country. Activities in
the sector was dominated by harvesting of maize, yam and
vegetables. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers intensified the
clearing and disinfesting of broiler houses to minimize the
incidence of diseases associated with the wet season.
A total of N2,923.6 million was guaranteed to 16,349 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the third quarter of 2013. This represented an increase of 213.5
above the level in the preceding quarter, but indicated a


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

decline of 27.5 per cent below the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2012.
A sub-sectoral analysis of the loans guaranteed indicated that
the food crops sub-sector received the largest share of
N1,708.7 million (58.4 per cent) for 10,969 beneficiaries, while
the livestock sub-sector got N458.9 million (15.7 per cent) for
3,192 beneficiaries. Fisheries sub-sector obtained N130.3 million
(4.5 per cent) for 410 beneficiaries; while cash crop sub-sector
received N47.8 million (1.6 per cent) guaranteed to 120
beneficiaries. Mixed crops obtained N540.4 million (18.5 per
cent) guaranteed to 1,438 beneficiaries, while „Others‟ subsector obtained N37.5 million (1.3 per cent) guaranteed to 220
beneficiaries. Further analysis showed that 35 states benefited
from the scheme during the quarter, with the highest and
lowest sums of N48.4 million (16.6 per cent) and N2.9 million
(0.1 per cent) guaranteed to farmers in Delta and Ekiti states,
respectively.
At end-September 2013, the total amount released by the
CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme
(CACS) to the participating banks for disbursement stood at
N221.9 billion for 294 (two hundred and ninety four) projects.
The beneficiaries included thirty state governments (Table 11).


Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amount Disbursed (N billion) mber of Projects/State Governme

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
41.8

Zenith Bank
33.9

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
24.8

Unity Bank Plc
22.3

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
18.2

Stanbic IBTC Bank
12.0

Access Bank Plc
11.10

Skye Bank Plc
9.2

Fidelity Bank Plc
10.90

Sterling Bank Plc
12.30

GTBank Plc
5.80

FCMB Plc.
4.90

ECOBANK
3.80

Citibank Plc
3.00

Diamond Bank Plc
2.70

Mainstreet Bank Plc
2.00

Keystone Bank
2.00

Wema Bank Plc
0.70

Enterprise Bank PLC
0.50

TOTAL
221.9

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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.3
Industrial Production
Industrial activities improved during the third quarter of 2013
relative to the level in the preceding quarter. At 138.99
(1990=100), the estimated index of industrial production rose
by 0.22 and 1.1 per cent above the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively.
The development was attributed to the increase in the
manufacturing activities during the period.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 110.87
(1990=100), rose marginally by 0.3 and 3.9 per cent above the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2012, respectively. The estimated capacity utilization also
rose marginally by 0.2 percentage point to 58.1 per cent
during the review period. The development was attributed to
the increased manufacturing activities (Fig.12, Table 11).
Figure 12: Capacity Utilization Rate

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Percent

At 147.0 (1990=100), the index of mining production rose by 0.2
and 0.03 per cent, compared with the level attained in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The increase in mining production during the
review quarter was accounted for by improved quarrying and
other mining activities, despite the fall in domestic crude oil
Industrial activities
improved relative to
the preceding quarter
due to increased
manufactuiring
activities during Q3
2013.
Actual industrial
capacity utilization
increased by 0.2
percentage point
relative to the level in
the preceding
quarter.


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and gas production.
At 3,167.0 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation fell
by 1.7 per cent, compared with the level attained in the
preceding quarter. The development was attributable largely
to the series of system collapse and shortages in gas supply to
the thermal plants.
At 2,567.6 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption
declined by 4.2 per cent, compared with the level attained in
the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to
the fall in power supply, transmission and distribution (Fig. 13,
Table 12).
Figure 13: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100)

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Index
Mining
Electricity
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Table 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Electricity

Capacity Utilization (%)


Average electricity
generation and
consumption
declined during the
quarter under
review.


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4.4
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria‟s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.89 million barrels per
day (mbd) or 173.88 million barrels, compared with 1.93 mbd
or (175.63 million barrels) in the preceding quarter. This
represented a decline of 0.04 mbd or 2.1 per cent below the
level in the preceding quarter. Consequently, crude oil export
was estimated at 1.44 mbd or (132.48 million barrels) in the
review period, compared with 1.48 mbd or 134.68 in the
preceding quarter, thus representing a decline of 2.7 per cent.
The development was attributed to the incessant crude oil
theft in the Niger Delta. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels during the
period under review.
At an estimated average of US$113.05 per barrel, the price of
Nigeria‟s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), rose by
7.4 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter. The
average prices of other competing crudes, namely the U.K
Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and the Forcados also rose
to US$112.17, US$105.93 and US$114.71 per barrel from
US$103.14, US$93.97 and US$106.46 per barrel, respectively,
recorded in the preceding quarter. At US$106.92 per barrel,
the average price of OPEC‟s basket of eleven crude streams
rose by 6.0 and 0.2 per cent, above the US$100.90 and
US$106.72 per barrel recorded in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The rise in
prices was attributed to increased demand, especially from
the OECD America and OECD Europe, resulting from general
improvements in economic activities in the regions (Fig. 14,
Table 13).
Crude oil and natural
gas production
decreased by 2.1 per
cent during Q3 2013.
Crude oil export
recorded a decrease
in Q3 2013.
Average crude oil
prices, including
Nigeria’s Bony Light
(37o API), rose in the
international crude
oil market in Q3
2013.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure14: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket

Consumer Prices3
Available
data
showed
that
the
all-items
composite
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the third quarter of
2013, was 148.9 (November 2009=100), representing an
increase of 1.6 and 7.9 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. The development reflected the slower rate of
increase in food prices and the effect of price increase across
various class of items, including actual and imputed rental
prices, books and stationaries as a result of the start of new
school year and accommodation services.
The urban all-items CPI at the end of the third quarter of 2013,
was 147.9 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 1.7

3 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey
(NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 18th October 2010.
The general price
level rose in Q3
2013 on account of
the increase in the
prices of food
items, books and
statinaries
education and
accommodation
services.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

and 0.6 per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. Similarly, the
rural all-items CPI at the end of the quarter, at 150.0
(November 2009=100), represented an increase of 1.4 and 7.9
per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively (Fig. 15, Table 14).
Figure15: Consumer Price Index

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural

Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Composite

Urban

Rural

The end-period inflation rate for the third quarter of 2013, on a
year-on-year basis stood at 8.0 per cent, compared with 8.4
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. This indicated a
decline of 0.4 and 3.3 percentage points below the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. The inflation rate on a twelve-month moving
average basis was 9.5 per cent, compared with 10.4 and 11.9
per cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively (Fig. 16, Table 15).
The headline
inflation (y-o-y)
decreased by 0.2
per cent in Q3 2013.


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Figure 16: Inflation Rate

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year

Table 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


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5.0
External Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN in the third quarter of 2013 rose by 27.2 per cent above the
level in the preceding quarter, but declined by 10.7 per cent below
the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012. Outflow through the
Bank, however, increased by 1.2 and 56.5 per cent over the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. Total non-oil export receipts by banks increased by
236.4 and 362.0 per cent above the levels in the preceding quarter
and the correspeonding quarter of 2012, respectively. Relative to
the preceding quarter, the average Naira exchange rate at the
wDAS vis-à-vis the US dollar, depreciated marginally to N157.32 per
US dollar. In the BDC segment of the market, the average naira
exchange rate, at N162.62 vis-à-vis the dollar, depreciated by 1.5
per cent relative to the level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, at
the interbank segment, the average Naira exchange rate relative to
the preceding quarter depreciated to N161.43 per dollar. The gross
external reserves fell by 1.9 per cent to US$44.10 billion from the
preceding quarter’s level.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN in the third quarter of 2013 amounted to
US$12.01 billion, representing an increase of 27.2 per cent
above the level in the preceding quarter, but showed a
decline of 10.7 per cent below the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2012. The rise in inflow relative to the preceding
quarter was attributed to the singnificant increase in non-oil
component due largely to proceeds from Eurobond and other
official receipts. Outflow amounted to US$12.65 billion,
showing an increase of 1.2 and 56.5 per cent above the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012, respectively. This resulted in a net outflow of US$0.64
billion, compared with a net outflow of US$3.06 billion
recorded in the preceding quarter but was in contrast to the
net inflow of US$5.36 billion in the corresponding quarter of
2012. The rise in outflow was attributed to the increase in
national priotiy projects, external debt service payments and
Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) transfers (Fig.17,
Table 16).

Foreign exchange
inflow and ouflow
through the CBN
rose by 27.2 and
1.2 per cent,
resulting in a net
outflow of
US$0.64 billion
during Q3 of
2013.


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Figure 17: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Inflow
13,673.10

13,603.64

12,119.80

10,050.94

13,444.07

11,168.38

10,304.46

9,442.91

12,011.86

Outflow
14,121.60

13,395.68

9,760.50

10,118.35

8,668.74

7,817.12

6,313.04

12,500.11

12,648.46

Netflow
(448.50)

207.96

2,359.30

(67.41)

4,775.33

3,351.26

3,991.42

(3,057.20)

(636.60)


Provisonal data on aggregate foreign exchange flows
through the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to
US$38.65 billion, representing an increase of 1.6 and 24.6 per
cent above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. Oil sector
receipts, which accounted for 24.8 per cent of the total, stood
at US$9.57 billion, compared with the US$9.20 billion and
US$11.16 billion achieved in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$2.43 billion, accounted for
6.3 per cent of the total and rose by 907.06 and 6.7 per cent
above the levels in the preceding and corresponding
quarters, respectively, while autonomous inflow, which
accounted for 68.9 per cent, declined by 6.8 per cent below
the preceding quarter‟s level.
At US$13.34 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflows from
the economy increased by 5.8 and 53.9 per cent above the
Autonomous inflows
into the economy fell
by 6.8 per cent in Q3
2013 relative to the
preceding quarter.
-4,000
-2,000


Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow


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Economic Report Third Quarter

levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter
of 2012, respectively. The increase, relative to the preceding
quarter, was accounted for, mainly, by the significant increase
in outflow through autonomous sources and NSIA transfers.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters during the
third quarter of 2013 stood at US$2.64 billion. This indicated an
increase of 236.4 and 362.0 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. The development was attributed, largely, to the
55.9 and 187.4 per cent increase in the proceeds of industrial
and manufacturing sectors, respectively, as well as the
significant increase in proceeds from primary agricultural and
other products. A breakdown of the proceeds showed that
agricultural products, manufactured products, industrial,
minerals and food products earned US$1.3 billion, US$738.7
million, US$522.7 million, US$47.5 million, and US$27.4 million,
respectively.
The shares of agricultural products, manufactured products,
industrial, minerals and food products in non-oil export
proceeds were 49.3, 28.0, 19.8 1.8 and 1.1 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Available data indicated that the invisible sector accounted
for the bulk (55.4 per cent) of total foreign exchange
disbursed in the third quarter of 2013, followed by mineral and
oil sector (13.6 per cent). Other beneficiary sectors, in a
descending order included: industrial sector (14.1 per cent),
food products (7.2 per cent), manufactured products (6.9 per
cent), transport sector (2.5 per cent) and agricultural products
(0.3 per cent) (Fig.18).
.
The invisible
sector accounted
for the bulk of the
total foreign
exchange
disbursed during
Q3 2013.
Total non-oil
export earnings
by exporters
rose significantly
during the third
quarter of 2013.


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Figure18: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange


18.9
42.4

Percent of Total
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
Foreign exchange demand by the authorized dealers for the
review period was estimated at US$10.12 billion, indicating an
increase of 24.4 and 53.1 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The sum of US$10.77 was sold by the CBN during
the review period, indicating a marginal decline of 0.01 per
cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase
of 61.1 per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter
of 2012 (Fig. 19, Table 17).
Figure 19: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
US$ billion
Forex Sales at WDAS
Forex Demand at WDAS
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Demand for foreign
exchange by
authorized dealers
rose while Supply
delined marginally
during Q3 2013.


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Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Forex Sales at WDAS

Forex Demand at WDAS

Supply of Forex to BDC

Total Forex Supply(BDC and WDAS)


Under the wDAS, the average exchange rate of the Naira visà-vis the US dollar was N157.32 per US dollar, indicating a
marginal depreciation of 0.01 per cent relative to the level in
the preceding quarter. It, however, appreciated by 0.04 per
cent relative to the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012.
In the bureau-de-change segment of the market, the naira
traded at an average of N162.62 per US dollar, indicating a
depreciation of 1.5 and 0.5 per cent relative to the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. At the interbank segment, the Naira exchanged
at an average of N161.43 to the US dollar, indicating a
depreciation of 1.7 and 1.3 per cent relative to its respective
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2012. The rates at the wDAS-Forwards segment for 1-month,
2-month and 3-month tenors stood at N155.77 per US dollar in
the review period (Fig. 20, Table 18).
The premium between the wDAS and the bureau-de-change
rates widened from 1.8 per cent in the preceding quarter to
3.4 per cent in the review period. Similarly, the premium
between the wDAS and interbank widened from 0.9 per cent
in the preceding quarter to 2.6 per cent in the review period
(Fig. 21, Table 18).
The average
Naira exchange
rate vis-à-vis the
US dollar
depreciated in all
the market
segments during
Q3 2013.
The premium
between the wDAS
and the BDC rates as
well as that between
wDAS and interbank
widened in the
review period.


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Figure 20: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
N/US $
Average WDAS/RDAS
Average BDC
Average Interbank


Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
WDAS/RDAS

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
WDAS/BDC

WDAS/Interbank


Figure 21: Exchange Rate Premium

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Percent
WDAS/BDC
WDAS/Interbank


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5.5
Gross External Reserves
Gross external reserves at the end of the third quarter of 2013
stood at US$44.10 billion, indicating a decline of 1.95 per cent
below the US$44.96 billion recorded at the end of the
preceding quarter. A breakdown of the reserves showed that
CBN reserves stood at US$35.96 billion (81.6) per cent),
Federation reserves was US$5.63 billion (12.7 per cent) and
the Federal Government reserves was US$2.51 billion (5.7 per
cent) (Fig. 22, Table 18).
Figure 22: Gross External Reserves


Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-14
US$ million

Table 19: Gross External Reserves (US$ million)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
External Reserves
31,890.5

31,740.2

35,190.8

35,412.5

40,636.8

43,830.4

47,884.1

44,957.0

44,100.5


Gross external
reserves declined
during the third
quarter of 2013.


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6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Available data showed that global growth remained low,
averaging 2.5 per cent during the first half of 2013. While
growth in advanced economies recently gained some speed,
it slowed in the emerging economies. The emergimg markets,
however, continue to account for the bulk of global growth.
Data from the Commerce Departmnet indicated that the US
GDP grew at annual rate of 2.7 per cent higer than the 2.0 per
cent earlier reported. September‟s Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI) in the US climbed to 56.6 pr cent, the highest in
2013 and showed an increase of 0.5 percentage point over its
level in August 2013. The improvement was attributed to the
rising inventories, robust federal spending and strong exports.
Preliminary data indicated an increase in the pace of
recovery in the Eurozone. The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite
Output Index rose to a 27-month high in September, rounding
off the strongest quarterly expansion since second quarter
2011. Data from the Office for National Statistics indicated that
the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager‟s
Index (PMI) hit a two-and-a-half year high of 57.2 in August,
indicating expansion for five successive months.
In Japan, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth in the
nation‟s economy was upwardly revised to 3.8 per cent from
2.6 percent, following the indication of solid improvement in
business conditions in August as output and new order growth
accelerated. In China, the GDP was estimated to have grown
by 7.8 per cent over the previous year‟s third quarter level.
Though, official data showed that the sub-index for small firms
dropped to 48.4, from 48.8 in August, while that for large
companies rose to 52.1 from 51.8 in the previous month,
overall new orders sub-index rose to 52.8 in September, from
52.4 in August.
The 2013 African Economic Outlook (AEO) report published by
the African Development Bank (AfDB) showed that Africa‟s
economic growth was projected at 4.8 per cent in 2013 and
5.3 per cent in 2014, respectively. The report indicated that
West Africa would continue its rapid economic growth with


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rates of 6.7 per cent in 2013 and 7.4 per cent in 2014. The
growth in West Africa would be driven by oil and mineral
sectors;
agriculture
and
services;
consumption
and
investment.
North Africa was projected to grow at 3.9 per cent in 2013 and
4.3 per cent in 2014 while East Africa, was projected to grow
at 5.2 per cent in 2013 and 5.6 per cent in 2014. Furthermore,
Central Africa was projected to grow by 5.7 per cent in 2013
and 5.4 per cent in 2014, while Southern Africa was expected
to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2013 and 4.6 per cent in 2014.
6.2 Global Inflation
Inflation continued to decelerate in advanced economies,
while it moderated in emerging markets. In the United States,
the consumer price index fell to 1.5 per cent in August 2013,
compared with 2.0 per cent in July 2013. Similarly, inflation in
the Eurozone fell to 1.1 per cent in September, from 1.3 per
cent in August, which was below the European Central Bank's
target of 2.0 per cent. The UK rate of consumer price index
(CPI) inflation moderated to 2.7 per cent in September, down
from 2.9 per cent in June. However, in emerging markets,
there was a mixed trend in inflationary pressures. In Brazil, the
CPI fell to 5.86 per cent in September from 6.09 per cent in
August, while the consumer price index in India moderated to
10.75 per cent in August from 10.85 per cent recorded in July.
However, China‟s CPI increased to 3.1 per cent in September,
from 2.6 per cent in August.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
World crude oil demand was estimated at 90.22 mbd in the
third quarter of 2013, representing an increase of 1.4 per cent
above the level recorded in the preceeding quarter. Similarly,
world crude oil supply was estimated at an average of 90.24
mbd, representing an increase of 0.2 per cent above the level
recorded in the preceeding quarter. The development was
attributed to improvement in the US economy, intermittent
recovery of the Eurozone and higher demand for oil in the
Chinese economy.
The OPEC Reference Basket price of eleven selected crude
streams stood at $106.92 per barrel in the third quarter of 2013
from US$100.90/b in the second quarter of 2013. The rise in


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price was, however, moderated by prospects of improved
supply from the MENA region and Sudan, along with
assurances by major suppliers and international oil agencies
that the market would be well-supplied.
The prices of the UK Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and
the Forcados also rose to close at US$112.17, US$105.93 and
US$114.71 per barrel, respectively.
6.4 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy during the
review quarter included: the meeting of the African Governors
of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held in
Khartoum, Sudan from August 21-22, 2013. At the end of the
meeting, the African Governors issued declaration that the
World Bank Group should partner with other donors; step up in
assisting national and regional institutions to undertake more
capital
market
deepening
programmes;
and
increase
financial
resources
to
support
the
development
of
infratsructures. The meeting also called on the IMF to, among
others, enhance Africa‟s voice and representation on the
Funds executive board .
Also, the 7th Annual Micro Small and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs) conference of the Central Bnak of Nigeria, adjoined
with the D-8 workshop on Microfinance for SMEs was held in
Abuja between August 15-16, 2013. The Governor of the CBN
launched the N220 Billion MSMEs Microfinance Development
Fund designed to further enhance access to finance by
MSMEs with major objectives to, among others, provide
wholesale financing windows for participating financial
instittutions (PFIs) at reduced cost; improve access of
NGOs/MFIs to finance; and improve capacity of the PFIs to
meet credit needs of MSMEs.
Furthermore, the ECOWAS-WAMA-WAMI Joint Multilateral
Surveillance Mission to Nigeria was conducted from August 26
to September 2, 2013, in compliance with the decision of the
Convergence Council of Ministers and Governors of the
Central Banks of the ECOWAS Member States. The Mission


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assessed the country‟s performance on the macroeconomic
convergence criteria and policy harmonisation as well as
institutional frameworks for the establishment of economic
and monetary union in the ECOWAS region during the first half
of 2013. Some of the challenges identified by the Mission
included
high
and
increasing
proportion
of
recurrent
expenditure; inaccurate estimation of the country‟s budget
deficit-to-GDP ratio; conflict in implementation of the regional
and domestic trade policies; and inadequate synergy among
government blueprints. The Mission recommended, among
others, that states should be encouraged to provide
information on tax revenue and expenditure profile during
Joint Tax Board and Federal Allocation Committee meetings;
and effective coordination and collaboration of MDAs
planning and budgeting.
The meetings of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), the
West African Monetary Agency (WAMA) and the West African
Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM)
was held in Accra, Ghana, from July 17 – 26, 2013. The
meeting discussed the proposed restructuring of WAMI and
activities of WAMA, while WAIFEM briefed the meeting on the
training and capacity building programmes it had executed
and presented a draft training programme for consideration.
Finally, the 6th Meeting of the Inter-Institutional Technical SubCommittee on the Road Map for the ECOWAS Single
Currency Programme was held in Accra, Ghana from July 29 –
30, 2013. The Meeting was presented with the status of the
implementation of roadmap activities by the ECOWAS
Commission, the WAMA, the WAMI and the WABA. Each of
the institutions informed the Meeting of various workshops and
projects which they had organized to harmonize and to meet
the convergence criteria. Some of the actionable decisions
included: that meetings of the Inter-Institutional Technical SubCommittee be held before the statutory meetings; all regional
institutions were to continue with responsibilities assigned to
them in the roadmap activities; and that decisions of the InterInstitutional Technical Sub-Committee should form part of the
regional institutions comprehensive status report on the
roadmap activities.


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APPENDIX TABLES


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Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Banks' Deposit with CBN

N billion

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as
Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/
2.4
-3.4

-6.9
2.0
-11.75
Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
-4.8
-1.1

-7.55
-5.5
3.41
DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foeign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Crude

Others

Expenditure

Recurrent

Capital

Transfers

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


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Table A4: Gross Domestic Product at 1990 Basic Prices


Q2-2012
Q3-2012
Q4-2012
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

N billion
Relative Share (%)
Growth Rate (%)
Q1-2013 and Q2-2013 are provisional figures. Q3-2013 are forecast. Source: National Bureau of Statistics.


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