ECONOMIC REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2019


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page ii
Economic Report Third Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
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Economic Report Third Quarter

Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter


Text Tables


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter

Appendix Tables


Figures


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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank maintained its Monetary Policy stance in the review period, as
the Monetary Policy Rate remained at 13.50 per cent. Broad money
supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, grew by 1.0 per cent to
N35,245.17 billion at end-August 2019, compared with the growth of 3.2
per cent at end-June 2019. The development reflected the respective
growth of 6.0 per cent and 7.3 per cent in aggregate credit (net) and
other assets (net) of the banking system, which more than offset the 15.0
per cent decline in net foreign assets. Over the level at end-December
2018, broad money supply (M3) grew by 5.7 per cent at end-August
2019, compared with the growth of 4.6 per cent at end-June 2019. The
development was due, wholly, to the 24.4 per cent growth in net
domestic credit of the banking system. Narrow money supply (M1), on
quarter-on-quarter basis, grew by 0.8 per cent to N11,245.42 billion at
end-August 2019, compared with the growth of 2.0 per cent at endJune 2019.
Developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates were mixed in the
review quarter. With the exception of the 6-month deposit rate, which
rose by 0.04 percentage point to 10.26 per cent, all other deposit rates
of various maturities fell from a range of 3.68 – 10.37 per cent in the
preceding quarter to 3.18 – 10.12 per cent in the third quarter of 2019.
The average term deposit rate fell by 0.28 percentage point to 8.45 per
cent in the third quarter of 2019, compared with 8.73 per cent in the
second quarter of 2019, while the average savings deposit rate rose by
0.92 percentage point to 5.27 per cent at end-September 2019. The
average maximum lending rate was 31.05 per cent, while the average
prime lending rate stood at 15.55 per cent at end-September 2019.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average term
deposit and maximum lending rates widened by 0.29 percentage point
to 22.60 percentage points at end-September 2019. Similarly, the
margin between the average savings deposit and maximum lending
rates widened by 0.01 percentage point to 27.12 percentage points in
the review quarter. The weighted average interbank call rate rose by
3.23 percentage points to 11.61 per cent at end-September 2019. The
total value of money market assets outstanding rose by 2.9 per cent to
N12,595.30 billion, at end-September 2019, compared with the level at
end-June 2019. The development was attributed, largely to the rise in
the FGN Bonds outstanding in the review quarter. Developments on the
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed.
Federally collected revenue, at N2,700.20 billion in the third quarter of

1 The Second Quarter 2019 data on monetary aggregates, government
spending and foreign exchange flows were provisional.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2019, fell below the provisional quarterly budget by 28.2 per cent, but
was higher than the receipts in the preceding quarter by 18.3 per cent.
The development, relative to the budget estimate, was due, largely, to
the shortfall in receipts from oil revenue, component in the review
quarter. Federal Government retained revenue in the review quarter,
was N1,026.95 billion, while total estimated expenditure amounted to
N1,406.63 billion, resulting in an estimated fiscal deficit of N379.68 billion.
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by
harvesting of farm produce. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers
continued the breeding of poultry and cattle nation-wide. The endperiod headline inflation, on year-on-year and 12-month moving
average bases, for the third quarter of 2019, were estimated at 11.24
per cent and 11.27 per cent, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to
US$11.69 billion and US$15.30 billion, respectively, resulting in a net
outflow of US$3.61 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to
authorised dealers amounted to US$10.11 billion in the third quarter of
2019. The average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar
appreciated by 0.01 per cent and 0.12 per cent to N306.93/US$ and
N359.557/US$ at the inter-bank and the BDC segments, respectively. It,
however, depreciated by 0.4 per cent to N362.20/US$ at the “Investors”
and “Exporters” (I&E) Window. At US$40.90 billion, the gross external
reserves fell by 8.6 per cent below the level at end-June 2019.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 100.63 mbd and
99.26 mbd, respectively, in the third quarter of 2019, compared with
99.08 mbd and 98.58 mbd demanded and supplied in the second
quarter of 2019. Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates
and natural gas liquids, was estimated at an average of 1.91 mbd in
the review quarter, compared with 1.86 mbd in the preceding quarter.
The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370
API), was US$65.21 per barrel in the third quarter of 2019, compared with
US$71.32 per barrel in the second quarter of 2019. The development
was due largely to tightened crude oil supply in the global oil market.
Major international developments of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: The Federal Ministry of Foreign
Affairs
(FMFA)
convened
the
first
preparatory
Inter-Ministerial
Committee meeting for the 74th session of the United Nations General
Assembly (UNGA), scheduled for September 2019, in New York; and the
Technical Committee (TC) of the West African Institute for Financial and
Economic Management (WAIFEM), held an extra-ordinary meeting,
focused on the Restructuring of the WAIFEM, at Conakry, Guinea from
August 14-15, 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
The Bank maintained its monetary policy stance in the review period,
as the Monetary Policy Rate remained at 13.50 per cent. Over the
level at end-June 2019, broad money supply (M3), grew by 1.0 per
cent at end-August 2019, reflecting 6.0 per cent and 7.3 per cent
increase in aggregate credit (net) and other assets (net) of the
banking system, respectively. Narrow money supply (M1) rose by 0.8
per cent, due, largely, to the 0.1 per cent and 0.9 per cent increase
in its currency outside banks and demand deposits components,
respectively. The value of money market assets outstanding rose
above the level in the preceding quarter. Activities on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) indicated mixed developments during the third
quarter of 2019.
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
The Bank maintained its monetary policy stance in the review
period, as the Monetary Policy Rate remained at 13.50 per
cent. The key monetary aggregates trended upward at endAugust 2019. Broad money supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter
basis, grew by 1.0 per cent to N35,245.17 billion at end-August
2019, compared with the growth of 3.2 per cent at end-June
2019. The development reflected, largely, the respective
growth of 6.0 per cent and 7.3 per cent in aggregate credit
(net) and other assets (net) of the banking system, which were
more than offset the 15.0 per cent decline in net foreign assets.
Relative to the level at end-December 2018, broad money
supply (M3) grew by 5.7 per cent at end-August 2019,
compared with the growth of 4.6 per cent at end-June 2019.
The development was due, wholly, to the 24.4 per cent growth
in net domestic credit of the banking system.
Narrow money supply (M1), on quarter-on-quarter basis, grew
by 0.8 per cent to N11,245.42 billion at end-August 2019,
compared with the growth of 2.0 per cent at end-June 2019.
The development reflected, significantly, the 0.1 per cent and
0.9 per cent increase in currency outside banks and demand
deposits, respectively. Over the level at end-December 2018,
M1 fell by 4.3 per cent at end-August 2019, compared with the

2 The monetary aggregate numbers used for the third quarter 2019 report are provisional.
Growth in monetary
aggregates was
significant in the
review period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

decline of 5.0 per cent at end-June 2019.
At end-August 2019, quasi-money, on quarter-on-quarter basis,
fell by 2.4 per cent to N16,341.00 billion, in contrast to the
growth of 5.3 per cent at end-June 2019. The development was
attributed to the fall in time and savings deposits of banks.
Relative to the level at end-December 2018, quasi-money grew
by 6.7 per cent at end-August 2019, compared with the growth
of 9.3 per cent at end-June 2019 (Figure 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3

Source: CBN
Aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), on quarteron-quarter basis, grew by 6.0 per cent to N34,291.10 billion,
compared with the growth of 1.9 per cent at end-June 2019.
The growth was due, largely, to the 24.7 per cent and 0.3 per
cent growth in claims on the Federal Government and claims
on the private sector, respectively. Relative to the level at endDecember 2018, aggregate credit to the domestic economy
(net), grew by 24.4 per cent at end-August 2019, compared
with 17.3 per cent at end-June 2019.

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2
represent cumulative changes (year-to-date) in narrow and broad money supply,
respectively.


-15
-10
-5

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
August-19
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM3 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM3 (LHS)
Banking system’s
credit to the Federal
Government rose in
the review period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Net claims on the Federal Government grew by 24.7 per cent
to N9,456.33 billion at end-August 2019, in contrast to the
decline of 2.1 per cent at end-June 2019. The development
reflected, largely, the increased holding of government
securities by the CBN and commercial banks. Relative to the
level at end-December 2018, claims on the Federal
Government grew by 94.3 per cent at end-August 2019,
compared with the growth of 55.8 per cent at end-June 2019.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system’s credit to the
private sector rose by 0.3 per cent to N24,834.77 billion at endAugust 2019, compared with the growth of 3.2 per cent at endJune 2019. The development was attributed, wholly, to the 1.0
per cent increase in claims on the core private sector. Over the
level at end-December 2018, banking system’s credit to the
private sector increased by 9.4 per cent at end-August 2019,
compared with the 9.0 per cent increase at end-June 2019,
(Figure 2, Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy4
Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system fell by 15.0 per cent
to N15,702.07 billion at end-August 2019, in contrast to the
growth of 9.8 per cent recorded at end-June 2019. The fall in
NFA, relative to the level in the preceding quarter, was as a

4 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CCP, CCG and
CAC represent cumulative changes (year-to-date) in credit to the private sector,
credit to the government and aggregate domestic credit, respectively.
-40
-20

-40
-20

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Aug-19
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system fell at the
end of the review
period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

result of the decline in foreign asset holdings of the banking
system. Over the level at end-December 2018, net foreign
assets of the banking system fell by 14.7 per cent at end-August
2019, in contrast to the growth of 0.4 per cent at end-June 2019.
At end-August 2019, other assets (net) of the banking system
rose by 7.3 per cent to negative N14,747.99 billion, compared
with the growth of 8.1 per cent at end-June. The development
was on the account of the increase in the unclassified assets of
the CBN. Over the level at end-December 2018, other assets
(net) of the banking system fell by 16.9 per cent at end-August
2019, compared with the decline of 26.1 per cent at end-June
2019.
Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over the
Preceding Quarter*
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the
CBN

Currency-in-circulation (CIC) at end-August 2019, rose by 0.1
per cent to N2,018.8 billion, in contrast to the decline of 7.3 per
cent at end-June 2019. The development, relative to the
preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the increase in its
currency outside banks and demand deposit components.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N14,084.1 billion at endAugust 2019, indicating a decline of 12.1 per cent below the
level at end-June 2019. The fall was attributed to 18.4 per cent,
9.3 per cent and 5.8 per cent decline in the deposits of the
commercial banks, the Federal Government and the private


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Economic Report Third Quarter

sector, respectively. Of the total deposits at the CBN, the shares
of the Federal Government, banks and private sector deposits
were 44.3 per cent, 35.2 per cent and 20.5 per cent,
respectively.
Reserve money fell by 13.7 per cent to N6,977.8 billion at endAugust 2019, in contrast to the increase of 11.6 per cent at endJune 2018. The development reflected the fall in banks’
deposits with the CBN.
2.3
Money Market Developments
Developments in the money market were mixed, as liquidity
fluctuated during the review quarter. Activities that boosted
liquidity were mainly inflow from repayment of matured CBN
bills, maturing Federal Government (FGN) Bonds and Nigerian
Treasury Bills (NTBs), as well as fiscal disbursements to the three
tiers of Government, while provisioning and settlement of
foreign exchange purchases, auctioning of CBN bills, FGN Bonds
and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) moderated liquidity.
Total value of money market assets outstanding in the third
quarter of 2019 stood at N12,595.30 billion, showing an increase
of 2.9 per cent, compared with the increase of 3.0 per cent at
the end of the second quarter of 2019. The development was
attributed, wholly, to the 3.7 per cent increase in FGN Bonds
outstanding during the review quarter.
2.3.1
Interest Rates Developments
Interest rates moved in tandem with the level of banking system
liquidity during the review period. Developments in the banks’
deposit and lending rates were mixed in the third quarter of
2019. The 6-month maturity deposit rate rose from 10.22 per
cent at end-June 2019 to 10.26 per cent at end-September
2019. All other rates of various maturities, however, fell from a
range of 3.68 – 10.37 per cent at end-June 2019 to a range of
3.18 – 10.12 per cent at end-September 2019. The average term
deposit rate fell by 0.28 percentage point to 8.45 per cent at
the end of the review quarter.
The weighted average prime lending rate fell by 0.25
percentage point to 15.55 per cent, while the weighted
average maximum lending rate rose by 0.01 percentage point
to 31.05 per cent at end-September 2019. Consequently, the
Liquidity in the money
market fluctuated in
the review period.
Interest rates moved in
tandem with the level
of banking system
liquidity in the money
market during the
review period.
Reserve money (RM)
fell in the review
period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

spread between the weighted average term deposit and
maximum lending rates widened by 0.29 percentage point to
22.60 percentage points at the end of the review quarter.
Similarly, the margin between the average savings and
maximum lending rates widened by 0.01 percentage point to
27.12 percentage points at end-September 2019.
At the inter-bank segment, the weighted average inter-bank
call rate, which stood at 8.38 per cent at end-June 2019, rose
by 2.23 percentage points to 11.61 per cent at end-September
2019. Similarly, the Nigeria inter-bank offered rate (NIBOR), for
the 30-day tenor, rose from 12.10 per cent in the preceding
quarter to 13.44 per cent at end-September 2019. Also, the
weighted average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment
rose by 2.25 percentage points to 10.96 per cent (Figure 3,
Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)


Source: CBN


Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Per cent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)
Inter-bank call rate
rose in Q3 2019


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Per cent, Averages)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by banks stood at
N40.18 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2019, showing a
decrease of 2.5 per cent below the N41.20 billion recorded at
the end of the preceding quarter. The development was due,
largely, to the decrease in investments in CP by merchant
banks during the review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.32 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding
during the review period, compared with 0.28 per cent in the
second quarter of 2019.

2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N1.87 billion
in the third quarter of 2019, showing a decline of 47.32 per cent
below the N3.55 billion recorded at the end of the preceding
quarter. The development was attributed, wholly, to a fall in
investment in BAs by commercial banks during the review
period. Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.02 per cent of the
total value of money market assets outstanding at the end of
the third quarter of 2019, compared with 0.06 per cent at the
end of the second quarter of 2019.

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
The Bank intervened through direct Open Market Operations
(OMO) auctions, to influence liquidity in the system during the
third quarter of 2019. The tenors to maturity of the instruments
ranged from 84 days to 364 days. Total amount offered,
subscribed to and allotted, stood at N3,435.00 billion, N5,944.96
billion and N2,627.27 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged
from 11.20 per cent to 15.50 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 10.00 per cent to 13.50 per cent. Repayment of
Banks’ holdings of
BAs declined in Q3
of 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

matured CBN bills amounted to N3,450.98 billion, translating to
a net injection of N823.71 billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364day tenors, amounting to N1,000.51 billion, N2,434.83 billion and
N1,000.51 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, at the auctions held in the third quarter of 2019 on
behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total
subscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were N158.03
billion and N80.62 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged
from 9.00 per cent to 17.00 per cent, while the stop rates ranged
from 9.74 per cent to 11.10 per cent.
For the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were
N233.18 billion and N124.42 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 10.00 per cent to 15.00 per cent, while the stop
rates ranged from 10.00 per cent to 11.80 per cent. Total
subscription and allotment at the 364-day auction were
N1,653.44 billion and N706.61 billion, respectively, with bid rates
ranging from 10.50 per cent to 14.82 per cent, while stop rates
ranged from 11.14 per cent to 13.30 per cent.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
Tranches of the 5-, 10-, and 30-year FGN Bonds were reopened and offered for sale in the review period. The term to
maturity of the bonds ranged from 3 years 7 months to 29 years
7 months. Total amount offered, subscribed to, and allotted
were N400.00 billion, N557.01 billion and N200.82 billion,
respectively. In addition, N91.10 billion was allotted on a noncompetitive basis. There was no maturity and repayment
during the review period. The bid rates on all tenors ranged
from 12.70 per cent to 15.78 per cent, while the marginal rates
ranged from 13.35 per cent to 14.64 per cent. The auctions
were impressive, due to renewed investors’ confidence in the
market.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The banks continued to access the CBN’s Standing Facilities to
square up their positions either by borrowing from the standing
lending facility (SLF) or depositing their excess liquidity at the
standing deposit facility (SDF) of the CBN at the end of each
business day.
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were offered for sale in
the Q3 of 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Total request for the Standing Lending Facility (SLF), inclusive of
direct SLF and Intra-day lending facilities (ILF) that were
converted to overnight repo during the review quarter, stood
at N6,203.28 billion, compared with N3,624.08 billion in the
preceding quarter. Daily average transaction value amounted
to N100.05 billion in 62 transaction days, with total interest
earned at N4.21 billion, compared with the daily average of
N62.48 billion in 58 transaction days, with a total of N2.63 billion,
as interest earned at the end of the preceding quarter.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N2,081.14 billion, with daily average of N33.08
billion, compared with N4,983.88 billion, in the second quarter
of 2019. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quarter
amounted to N0.63 billion, compared with N1.67 billion in the
preceding quarter.
2.4
Banks’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of commercial banks stood at
N39,587.71 billion at end-August 2019, representing a 0.1 per
cent fall below the level at end-June 2019. Funds were sourced,
largely, from increased foreign liabilities, realisation of foreign
assets and reduction of claims on the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The funds were used, mainly, to reduce unclassified liabilities,
settlement of time savings and foreign currency deposits and
increased claims on the private sector.
At N21,819.01 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy,
at end-August 2019, showed an increase of 3.5 per cent,
compared with the level at end-June 2019. The development
reflected, largely, the 3.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent rise in claims
on the Federal Government and the private sector,
respectively, in the review period.
Total specified liquid assets of the commercial banks was
N13,778.50 billion at end-August 2019, representing 59.4 per
cent of the total current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio
was 5.5 percentage points and 29.4 percentage points above
the level at end-June 2019 and the stipulated minimum ratio of
30.0 per cent, respectively. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 61.1
per cent, was 3.5 percentage points higher than the level at
end-June 2019, but 18.9 percentage points lower than the
Liquidity ratio was
above the prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit ratio
was below the
prescribed maximum
in August 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

prescribed maximum of 80.0 per cent.
2.5
Capital Market Developments

2.5.1
Secondary Market
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed
during the third quarter of 2019, as the All Share Index (ASI) fell,
while the aggregate market capitalisation rose at the end of
the review period. The turnover volume and value of traded
securities declined by 36.0 per cent and 38.1 per cent to 16.3
billion shares and N187.7 billion, respectively, in 218,415 deals,
compared with 25.5 billion shares worth N303.0 billion in 240,990
deals, recorded in the second quarter of 2019. Developments
in the market were driven, largely, by the cross-border listing of
3.8 billion ordinary shares of Airtel Africa Plc, and sell-offs by
investors, despite a generally positive half-year corporate
earnings (Figure 4, Table 3).
Figure 4 : Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)
360.4
339.4 439.7

211.2
208.7

187.7

Source: NSE

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Value (N Billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.5.2
New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings
There was one (1) new equity listing and two (2) supplementary
listings during the review period (Table 4).

Table 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing
1 Fidson Healthcare Plc
0.59 billion Ordinary Shares
Additional Shares
Supplementary
2 Airtel Africa Plc
3.76 billion Ordinary Shares
Entire Shares Issued
New Listing
3 Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc
232.90 billion Ordinary Shares
Additional Shares
Supplementary


2.5.3 Market Capitalisation
The aggregate market capitalisation for all listed securities
(equities and debts) rose by 2.3 per cent to N26.3 trillion at the
end of the third quarter of 2019, compared with N25.7 trillion at
end-June 2019. Similarly, market capitalisation for the equities
segment rose by 2.0 per cent to N13.5 trillion and constituted
51.3 per cent of the aggregate market capitalisation,
compared with N13.2 trillion and 51.3 per cent at end-June
2019.

2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 29,966.87 at the
beginning of the quarter, declined by 7.8 per cent to close at
27,630.56 at end-September 2019. All the sectoral indices also
witnessed decline in the review period. Specifically, the NSEPremium, NSE-Lotus, NSE-Oil and Gas, NSE-Consumer Goods,
NSE-Industrial, NSE-Pension, NSE-Banking, NSE-AseM and NSEInsurance indices fell by 5.2 per cent, 8.9 per cent, 5.5 per cent,
8.8 per cent, 0.4 per cent, 6.1 per cent, 6.2 per cent, 1.0 per
cent and 6.3 per cent, to 2,271.74, 1,789.82, 239.35, 567.41,
1,083.31, 993.24, 343.99, 774.30 and 116.00, respectively, at endSeptember 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: NSE
Table 5: Market Capitalisation and All Share Index (NSE)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Market Capitalisation (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
35,439.98

38,243.19

41,504.51

38,278.55

32,766.37

31,430.50

31,041.42

29,966.87

27,630.56


Source: NSE


Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Index
N Billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


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Economic Report Third Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations5
Federally-collected revenue in the third quarter of 2019, fell below the
quarterly budget by 28.2 per cent, but rose above receipts in the
preceding quarter by 18.3 per cent. Federal Government retained
revenue in the review quarter was N1,026.95 billion, while total
estimated expenditure amounted to N1,406.63 billion, resulting in an
estimated fiscal deficits of N379.68 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
At N2,700.20 billion, federally-collected revenue in the third
quarter of 2019, was lower than the quarterly budget6 of
N3,758.77 billion by 28.2 per cent. It, however, rose by 18.3 per
cent above receipts in the preceding quarter. The decline in
federally-collected revenue (gross), relative to the quarterly
budget, was attributed, largely, to shortfalls in receipts from oil
revenue in the review period (Figure 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally-Collected Revenue


Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)*
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
2,564.28

2,489.66

2,309.78

2,281.74

2,700.20

Oil Revenue
1,394.19

1,465.31

1,413.74

1,219.19

1,340.08

Non-Oil Revenue
1,170.09

1,024.35

896.04

1,062.55

1,360.12


Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
*Figures are provisional


5 Figures on government revenue and expenditure for the second quarter of 2019 were provisional and subject to
changes
6 The quarterly budget was derived from the 2019 approved budget.

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
N Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross
federally-
collected revenue
fell by 28.2 per
cent
below
the
quarterly budget.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Gross oil revenue, at N1,340.08 billion or 49.6 per cent of the
total receipts, was below the quarterly budget by 44.6 per cent,
but was above the receipt in the preceding quarter by 9.9 per
cent. The decline in oil revenue, relative to the quarterly
budget, was due, largely, to shortfalls in all the components of
oil revenue, except Domestic Crude Oil and Gas sales (Figure
7, Table 7).

Figure 7 : Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Oil Revenue Gross
1,394.19

1,465.31

1,413.74

1,219.19

1,340.08

Crude oil/Gas Exports
104.49

103.62

137.09

86.98

57.28

PPT/Royalties
914.56

1,044.17

871.36

763.97

947.53

Others
375.14

317.52

405.29

368.25

335.26

Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* Figures are provisional
Non-oil revenue (gross), at N1,360.12 billion, rose above the
quarterly budget of N1,341.72 billion by 1.4 per cent. It, similarly,
rose above the level in the preceding quarter by 28.0 per cent.
The higher non-oil revenue, relative to the quarterly budget,
was as a result of increased receipts from Corporate Taxes, and
improvements in the collection of the Nigeria Customs Service
(NCS) (Figure 8, Table 8).


Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
N Billion
Crude oil/Gas Exports
PPT/Royalties
Others


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)*
Q3 -18
Q4 -18
Q1-19
Q2 -19
Q3 -19
Non-Oil Revenue
1,170 .0 9

1,0 2 4 .3 5

8 9 6 .0 4

10 6 2 .55
1,3 6 0 .12

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
279.69

276.41

301.62

295.49

290.87

Corporate Tax
510.79

347.15

297.21

332.61

651.43

Customs & Excise Duties
181.06

196.37

190.96

214.93

210.77

Others/1
198.55

204.43

106.26

219.52

207.05

1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies
(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* Figures are provisional

After the statutory deductions and transfers of N443.68 billion
and N486.29 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,770.23 billion
was retained in the Federation Account for distribution. Of this
amount, the Federal Government got N866.79 billion, State and
Local governments received N439.65 billion and N338.95 billion,
respectively, while the balance of N124.85 billion was
transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among
the oil-producing states.
In addition, the Federal Government received N41.89 billion,
while the State and Local governments got N139.62 billion and
N97.73 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool Account.

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
N Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
The sum of N1,770.23
billion
of
the
gross
federally-collected
revenue was distributed
among the three tiers of
government
and
the
13.0% Derivation Fund
for oil-producing states.


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Table 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers
(N Billion)*
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Total Deductions 1/
396.91

288.34

435.51

292.68

443.68

Oil Rev enue Deductions

Non-Oil Rev enue Deductions

Total Transfers
467.05

469.78

395.81

503.20

486.29

Federal Gov t. Ind. Rev enue

VAT Pool Account

Others 2/

1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions
2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
* Figures are provisional
The sum of N1.75 billion was drawn-down on the Non-oil Excess
Revenue Account and distributed as follows: Federal
Government, N0.92 billion; State governments, N0.47 billion;
and Local governments, N0.36 billion. The sum of N3.02 billion
was also shared as Exchange Gain in the following proportion:
Federal Government, N1.44 billion; State governments, N0.74
billion; Local governments, N0.56 billion; and 13.0% Derivation
Fund, N0.28 billion.
Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the three
tiers of government in the third quarter of 2019, amounted to
N2,054.24 billion, compared with the quarterly budget of
N3,272.00 billion.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government
Provisional data on Federal Government finances indicated
that the Federal Government retained revenue for the third
quarter of 2019 amounted to N1,026.95 billion. This was below
the quarterly budget by 51.5 per cent, but was above the
receipt in the preceding quarter by 8.7 per cent. Of the total
revenue, Federation Account accounted for 84.4 per cent,
while Federal Government Independent Revenue, VAT, Non-oil
Excess and Exchange Gain, accounted for 11.3 per cent, 4.1
per cent, 0.14 per cent, and 0.09 per cent, respectively (Figure
9).

At N1,026.95 billion, the
estimated FGN retained
revenue was lower than
the quarterly budget by
51.5 per cent.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue


Table 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)*
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Retained Revenue
1,035.72

1,144.47

798.82

944.58

1,026.95

Expenditure
1,939.90

2,017.63

1,197.04

1,579.88

1,406.63

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(564.73)

(213.89)

(56.10)

(89.80)

142.16

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(163.20)

(526.02)

(64.83)

(238.86)

(29.09)

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(904.19)

(873.16)

(398.22)

(635.30)

(379.69)

Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General
of the Federation
*Figures are provisional
The estimated Federal Government expenditure for the third
quarter of 2019, at N1,406.63 billion, was below the level in the
preceding quarter and the quarterly budget of N2,595.94
billion by 11.0 per cent and 45.8 per cent, respectively. A
breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the recurrent
component accounted for 62.9 per cent, while capital and
statutory transfers accounted for 26.4 per cent and 10.7 per
cent, respectively (Figure 10). A further breakdown of the
recurrent expenditure showed that the non-debt component
explained 60.4 per cent, while debt service payments was 39.6
per cent.
Federation Acct.
84.4%
VAT Pool Acct.
4.1%
FGN Ind. Rev.
11.3%
Exchange Gain
0.14%
Non-oil Excess
0.09%


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure

Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficits of N379.68 billion, compared with the
proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N479.62 billion.
3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
At N705.60 billion, the total allocation to state governments
from the Federation Account, including the 13.0% Derivation
Fund and the VAT Pool Account, was lower than the quarterly
budget by 40.1 per cent.
A breakdown showed that receipts from the Federation
Account were N565.98 billion (80.2%), while the share from VAT
pool account stood at N139.62 billion (19.8%). The receipts from
the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below the quarterly
budget by 41.8 and 31.8 per cent, respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation and
VAT Pool Accounts in the third quarter of 2019 stood at N437.61
billion. This was below the quarterly budget by 35.1 per cent. Of
the total amount, allocation from the Federation Account was
N339.87 billion (77.7%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at
N97.73 billion (22.3%).


Recurrent,
62.9%
Capital, 26.4%
Transfers,
10.7%
The fiscal
operations of the
FG resulted in an
estimated overall
deficits of N379.68
billion in Q3 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by
harvesting of farm produce. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers
continued the breeding of poultry and cattle nation-wide. The endperiod headline inflation, on year-on-year and 12-month moving
average bases for the third quarter of 2019, stood at 11.24 per cent
and 11.27 per cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
In the third quarter of 2019, agricultural activities intensified,
due, largely, to increased rainfall experienced in most parts of
the country. However, a few cases of flooding were recorded
in some parts of the country, which destroyed farm produce.
Farming activities were centred majorly on the harvest of
agricultural produce during the quarter.
In a bid to curb the farmers/herders clash and ensure a wellintegrated meat/dairy industry, a plot phase of the Livestock
Transformation Plan was flagged off in Adamawa, Benue,
Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba and Zamfara states. The
Plan was targeted at supporting the development of the
country’s livestock sub-sector.
4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
A total of N1,214.2 million loan was guaranteed to 9,752 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in the
third quarter of 2019. This represented an increase of 41.7 per
cent above the level in the preceding quarter, but was 14.6 per
cent below the level in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Subsectorial analysis showed that food crops received the largest
share of N595.5 million (49.0 per cent) guaranteed to 5,436
beneficiaries, mixed crops got N221.8 million (18.3 per cent)
guaranteed to 2,472 beneficiaries, while livestock had N174.5
million (14.4 per cent) guaranteed to 690 beneficiaries. Cash
crops, fisheries and ‘Others’ got N106.5 million (8.8 per cent),
N84.4 million (6.9 per cent) and N31.5 million (2.6 per cent),
guaranteed to 629, 321 and 204 beneficiaries, respectively.
Analysis by state, showed that 34 states and the Federal Capital
Territory benefited from the Scheme in the review quarter, with
the highest and lowest sums of N142.9 million (11.8 per cent)
and N2.6 million (0.2 per cent) guaranteed to Adamawa and


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Jigawa states, respectively.
4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
At end-September 2019, the total amount released, since
inception by the CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit
Scheme (CACS) to the participating banks for disbursement,
amounted to N610.4 billion for 593 projects, while total amount
repaid since inception stood at N368.0 billion at end-June 2019,
compared with N338.4 billion (Table 11).
Table 11: Disbursement and Repayment of Credit under the Commercial
Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) as at September 18, 2019


4.4
Industrial Production7
Data from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that
the industrial sector showed an improvement in the third
quarter of 2019, on account of expansion in manufacturing
activities, due to marginal increase in employment, electricity
consumption, crude oil exploration, output and new orders in
the sub-sector. Consequently, industrial production in the
review quarter indicated a marginal increase over the level in
the preceding quarter. At 108.5 (2010=100), the estimated
index of industrial production rose by 0.7 per cent above the
level in the preceding quarter. The increase reflected improved
activities in manufacturing, mining and electricity generation

7 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision
Industrial activities
improved in the
review quarter, due
to a marginal
increase in
employment, output
and new orders.
S/N Participating Banks
Total No. of Projects Amount Disbursed (N billion)
Amount Repaid (N bil

UBA Plc

83.53
55.0

Zenith Bank

123.91
79.5

First Bank of Nigeria Plc

52.99
44.2

Unity Bank Plc

29.80
13.0

Union Bank Plc

28.96
21.3

Stanbic IBTC Plc

28.10
19.2

Sterlling Bank

72.43
26.7

Access Bank Plc

36.66
29.6

Fidelity Bank Plc

23.67
13.8

Polaris Bank Limited

13.77
11.7

FCMB Plc.

18.53
9.6

Ecobank

6.38
6.4

GTBank

39.85
20.3

Diamond Bank Plc

4.85
4.0

Heritage Bank

6.81
2.4

Citibank Plc

3.00
3.0

Keystone Bank

30.05
6.9

WEMA Bank Plc

3.24
1.3

Jaiz Bank Plc

2.05
0.0

Suntrust BanK Ltd

1.85
0.3
TOTAL

610.43
368.02


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Economic Report Third Quarter

and consumption.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 179.7
(2010=100), increased by 2.3 per cent, in the third quarter of
2019, compared with the level in the preceding quarter. The
improvement was due, largely, to continued expansion in
consumer demand and moderated input prices (Figure11).
The estimated index of mining production, at 77.9 (2010=100),
rose marginally by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2019,
compared with the level attained in the second quarter of
2019. The increase reflected the improvement in crude oil and
gas production (Figure 11, Table 12).
Electricity generation improved during the review quarter. At
4,144.4 MW/h, average estimated electricity generation rose
by 4.8 per cent, compared with the level at the end of the
second quarter of 2019. The increase was attributed, majorly,
to improvements in gas supply to thermal stations, as well as,
increase in water level at the hydro stations.
At 3,855.1 MW/h, average estimated electricity consumption
increased by 17.4 per cent, compared with the level attained
in the preceding quarter. The increase was attributed,
significantly, to improvements in transmission networks resulting
from rising investments in transmissions infrastructures.


Average electricity
generation and
consumption improved
in the review quarter.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 11 : Indices of Industrial Production (2010=100) 8

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

Table 12: Indices of Industrial Production

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Source: Staff Estimate
4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.89 mbd in the review quarter.
This represented an increase of 1.6 per cent, compared with
1.86 mbd produced in the preceding quarter. The increase in
production was attributed to the re-opening of some major oil
installations earlier shutdown, including the contributions from
the start-up of the new Total Egina field. Allocation of crude oil
for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels
in the review period.
The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the
Bonny Light (37° API) fell from US$71.32/b in the second quarter
of 2019, to US$65.21/b in the third quarter of 2019. This
represented a decrease of 8.6 per cent and 14.7 per cent

8 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015
Crude oil and natural
gas production
increased in the third
quarter of 2019.
Crude oil export increased
in Q3 2019.
Average crude oil prices,
including the Bonny Light
(37° API) fell in the
international crude oil
market in Q3 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development
was, due, largely, to tightened crude oil supply in the global
oil market, majorly to high U.S crude stockpiles in the period and
worries over escalating US-China trade dispute. The UK Brent at
US$63.42/b, Forcados at US$65.28/b and WTI at US$57.25/b,
exhibited similar trends, as the Bonny Light.
The average price of the OPEC basket of the fifteen selected
crude streams was US$62.36/b in the third quarter of 2019,
indicating a decrease of 8.8 per cent and 15.8 per cent,
compared with the US$62.72/b and US$74.10/b in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2018
(Figure 12, Table 13).
Figure 12: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market (US$ Barrel)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket


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4.6
Consumer Prices9
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at endSeptember
2019,
was
estimated
at
298.5
(November
2009=100), indicating a 3.0 per cent and 11.2 per cent increase
over the levels in the second quarter of 2019 and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development
was attributed, largely, to increase in both food and non-food
categories.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) stood at 304.1 at
end-September 2019, representing 3.3 per cent and 11.8 per
cent increase, compared with the levels at end-June 2019 and
end-September 2018, respectively. The rural all-items CPI
(November 2009=100), was 294.1 at end-September 2019,
representing 2.9 per cent and 10.9 per cent increase,
compared with the levels at the end of the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively (Figure 13,
Table 14).
The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent) was
estimated at 328.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2019,
compared with the 316.0 per cent and 289.0 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively.
Figure 13: Consumer Price Index


Source: NBS

9 New CPI with November 2009 = 100, as base and new weight, based on the
2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS), was released by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on October 18, 2010.

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural
The general price level
increased in Q3 2019
below the level in the
preceding quarter.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Composite

Urban


278.5

294.4
304.1
Rural

Headline inflation stood at 11.24 per cent at end-September
2019, compared with 11.22 per cent and 11.28 per cent at the
end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of
2018, respectively. The 12-Month Moving Average (12MMA)
inflation, for the third quarter of 2019, was 11.27 per cent,
compared with 11.30 per cent and 13.16 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively (Figure 14, Table 15).

Figure 14: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS
Table15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year

Source: NBS


Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year
The headline inflation
(y-o-y) stood at 11.24
per cent in Q3 2019.


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5.0
External Sector Developments10
On quarter-on-quarter basis, foreign exchange inflow, through the
CBN, fell by 6.7 per cent, while outflow through Bank rose by 22.0 per
cent, relative to their levels in the second quarter of 2019. Total nonoil export proceeds received by banks fell by 11.7 per cent,
compared with the level at end-June 2019. The average exchange
rate at the ’Investors’ and ‘Exporters’ window, the BDC and the Interbank segments of the market were N362.20/US$, N359.14/US$ and
N306.93/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At US$40.90 billion,
the gross external reserves fell by 8.6 per cent, compared with the
level at end-June 2019.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the CBN amounted to
US$11.69 billion, showing decline of 6.7 per cent and 9.5 per
cent, compared with the levels in the second quarter of 2019
and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The
development, relative to the preceding quarter reflected,
mainly, the fall in non-oil receipts.
Aggregate outflow from the CBN was US$15.30 billion,
indicating an increase of 22.0 per cent above the level in the
second quarter of 2019, but a decline of 12.0 per cent,
compared with level in the corresponding period of 2018. The
rise in outflow, relative to the preceding quarter, reflected,
mainly, increased intervention in the foreign exchange market
and other official payments. Overall, foreign exchange flows,
through the Bank in the review period, resulted in a net outflow
of US$3.61 billion, compared with net outflow of US$0.02 billion
and US$4.47 billion in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively (Figure 15, Table 16).


10 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign
exchange utilisation for the third quarter of 2019 are provisional and subject to change.
Foreign exchange inflow
into the CBN declined,
while outflow from the
Bank rose, resulting in a
net outflow of US$3.61
billion in Q3 of 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 15: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN


Source: CBN
Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN (US$ million)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Inflow
14,708.45

14,194.10

13,817.56

12,949.01

15,815.40

18,384.02

13,830.98

11,689.73

Outflow
8,444.27

9,651.78

13,296.38

16,931.36

16,002.49

16,302.16

10,066.75

15,302.72

Netflow
6,264.18

4,542.32

521.18

(3,982.36)

(187.09)

2,081.86

3,764.22

(3,612.99)


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy
amounted to US$25.76 billion in the third quarter of 2019,
indicating a decline of 5.7 per cent, compared with the level in
the preceding quarter, but an increase of 4.3 per cent above
the level in the corresponding period of 2018. The development
was as a result of the 6.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent decline in
inflow through the CBN and autonomous sources, respectively.
Oil sector receipts, which accounted for US$4.00 billion, rose by
4.9 per cent and 3.5 per cent above the levels at the end of
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$7.71 billion (29.9 per cent of
the total) in the review period, declined by 11.7 per cent and
15.1 per cent below the levels at the end of the second quarter
of 2019 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
Autonomous inflow, at US$14.07 billion in the third quarter of
-10,000
-5,000


Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous inflow
into the economy fell
by 5.0 per cent in Q3
2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2019, similarly, declined by 5.0 per cent, compared with the
level at the end of the preceding quarter, but increased by 19.4
per cent above the level recorded at the end of the
corresponding period of 2018. Inflow from autonomous sources
accounted for 54.6 per cent of the total.
At US$16.54 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy rose by 21.9 per cent above the level in the
preceding quarter. It, however, fell by 9.4 per cent relative to
the
level in the corresponding period of
2018.
The
development, relative to the preceding quarter was driven,
mainly, by 22.0 per cent rise in outflow from the CBN, over the
level in the preceding quarter. Thus, foreign exchange flows
through the economy, resulted in a net inflow of US$9.22 billion
in the review quarter, compared with US$13.76 billion and
US$9.43 billion in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2018, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks during
the review period amounted to US$1.62 billion, representing an
increase of 1.2 per cent and 95.1 per cent relative to the levels
at the end of the preceding quarter and corresponding period
of 2018, respectively. The development, relative to the
preceding quarter’s level, was attributed, largely, to the 82.6
per cent, 82.4 per cent and 33.3 per cent increase in receipts
from the agricultural, food products and transport sub-sectors,
respectively. Sectoral analysis showed that proceeds from the
industrial, manufacturing and minerals sub-sectors fell by 23.5
per cent, 21.1 per cent and 19.5 per cent, respectively. The
decrease in the non-oil export receipts from manufactured
products was driven, majorly, by plastics, footwear, soap and
other detergents, furniture and wood, glass and glass products,
drugs and pharmaceutical products, electronics and other
manufactured products.
The shares of the various sectors in non-oil export proceeds
were: agricultural products, 34.2 per cent; industrial sector, 27.6
per cent; minerals, 23.4 per cent; manufactured products, 9.5
per cent; and food products, 5.3 per cent.

Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
fell in Q2 2019.
Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
rose in Q3 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Aggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the third
quarter of 2019 stood at US$13.26 billion, indicating an increase
of 50.9 per cent and 10.8 per cent above the levels at the end
of the second quarter of 2019 and the corresponding period of
2018, respectively. The invisible sector accounted for the bulk
(69.5%) of total foreign exchange disbursed in the review
quarter, followed by the industrial sector (13.1%). Others were:
manufactured products, 6.2 per cent; minerals and oil, 4.9 per
cent; food products, 4.5 per cent; transport, 1.1 per cent; and
agricultural sector, 0.7 per cent (Figure16).
Figure 16: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange Source: CBN

Source: CBN

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$10.11 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised
dealers in the third quarter of 2019. This represented 37.1 per
cent increase, compared with the level in the second quarter
of 2019. The development, relative to the preceding quarter,
reflected, mainly, the significant rise in foreign exchange sales
to the I&E window, swaps transactions and wholesale forwards
in the review quarter.
Of the total, foreign exchange sales to the I&E window, swaps
transaction, wholesale forwards intervention, SME intervention,
sales to BDCs, interbank sales and SMIS intervention rose above
their levels in the preceding quarter by 2,345.14 per cent, 36.1

Agricultural
Transport
Food
Manufactures
Minerals & Oil
Industrial
Invisibles
percent of total
Q3-19
Q2-19
Q1-19
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed in Q3 2019.
Supply of foreign
exchange to
authorised dealers
rose in Q3 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

per cent, 24.3 per cent, 12.5 per cent, 9.3 per cent, 6.9 per cent
and 0.7 per cent, respectively, to US$2.02 billion, US$0.47 billion,
US$1.50 billion, US$0.43 billion, US$3.54 billion, US$0.33 billion and
US$1.84 billion, respectively. Foreign exchange forwards
disbursed at maturity recorded no transaction during the
period under review (Figure 17, Table 17).
Figure 17: Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Source: CBN

Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Wholesale Forward

Supply to I & E

SMIS Intervention

SME Intervention

Disbursement at maturity

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)

Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the Inter-bank and
the BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the
review quarter. Consequently, average exchange rate of the
The average naira
exchange rate vis-à-vis
the US appreciated at the
inter-bank and the BDC
segments, while it
depreciated at the I&E
Window in Q3 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the Inter-bank segment,
appreciated by 0.01 per cent to N306.93/US$, above the level
in the preceding quarter. It, however, depreciated by 0.3 per
cent, compared with the level recorded in the corresponding
period of 2018. Conversely, at the BDC segment, the average
exchange rate, appreciated by 0.1 per cent and 0.02 per cent
to N359.14/US$, relative to the level in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. At
N362.20/US$, the average exchange rate at the “Investors”
and “Exporters” (I&E) window depreciated by 0.4 per cent,
relative to the level in the preceding quarter, but appreciated
by 0.1 per cent, compared with the level in the corresponding
period of 2018.
Consequently, the premium between the average inter-bank
and BDC rates narrowed by 0.13 percentage point to 17.0 per
cent, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. The
premium between the average exchange rates at the
“Investors” and “Exporters” window and the BDC segment
widened by 0.6 percentage point to 0.9 per cent, in the review
quarter, from 0.3 per cent at the end of the second quarter of
2019 (Figure 18, Table 18).
Figure 18: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Av. I & E
Av. BDC
Av. Interbank (RHS)
N/US$

Source: CBN


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Investors and Exporters Window

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
I&E/Interbank
N/A
N/A
N/A

BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN


Figure 19: Exchange Rate Premium

Source: CBN

5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves were US$40.90 billion as at September
25, 2019. This indicated a decrease of 8.6 per cent, compared
with the level in the second quarter of 2019. The external
reserves position would cover 5.2 months of import of goods
and services or 9.2 months of import of goods only, based on
the estimated value of import for the second quarter of 2019. A
breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that
the share of Federation reserves was US$0.27 billion (0.7 per
cent); Federal Government reserves, US$7.00 billion (17.1 per
cent); and the CBN reserves, US$33.62 billion (82.2 per cent) of
the total (Figure 20, Table 19).


Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Per cent
Interbank/BDC
Interbank/BDC
Gross external
reserves fell in the
third quarter of 2019.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 20 : Gross Official External Reserves


Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
US$ million


Table 19: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
External Reserves
47,157.9

42,609.0

42.542.82
44,793.1

44,747.0

40,897.2


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Economic Report Third Quarter

6.0 Global Economic Outlooks
6.1 Global Output
Global growth was projected at 3.2 per cent for the year 2019
and was estimated to improve to 3.5 per cent in 2020. This was
0.1 percentage point lower than in the projection in April World
Economic Outlook (WEO) for both years. Growth forecast for
China and Emerging Asia were revised downward, consistent
with the impact of intensifying trade tensions and associated
confidence effects.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) released in April 2019,
projected growth in major advanced economies to slowdown
from 2.2 per cent in 2018 to 1.9 per cent and 1.7 per cent in
2019 and 2020, respectively. The estimated growth rate for 2019
was 0.1 percentage point, which was lower than the April 2019
WEO projection. In the United States, growth was projected to
decline to 2.6 per cent in 2019. This was below the IMF forecast
of April 2019 of 2.3 per cent. The downward revision of 2019
growth reflected the stronger-than-anticipated first quarter
performance, as the headline number was strong on the back
of robust exports and inventory accumulation. Domestic
demand was, however, somewhat softer than expected, and
imports weaker, reflecting the effect of tariffs. These
developments point to slowing momentum over the rest of the
year.

Meanwhile, growth in the euro area was projected to
moderate from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 1.3 per cent in 2019. It
was, however, expected to improve to 1.6 per cent in the first
half of 2020, 0.1 percentage point higher than in April 2018.
Growth rates had declined for many European economies,
notably Germany, where growth was revised downward, due
to weaker-than-expected external demand, which also
weighed
on
investment.
Projections,
however,
remain
unchanged for France, where fiscal measures were expected
to support growth, and Italy, where the uncertain fiscal outlook
was similar to April 2019 WEO projection, taking a toll on
investment and domestic demand. In the United Kingdom,
growth was projected at 1.4 per cent in 2018, 1.3 per cent in
2019 and 1.4 per cent in 2020, 0.1 per cent higher than the April


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2019 WEO projection. Japan’s economy is set to grow by 0.9
per cent in 2019, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the April
2019 WEO.

In emerging markets and developing economies, growth was
projected at 4.7 per cent in 2020, from 4.1 per cent in 2019. The
forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were 0.3 percentage point and 0.1
percentage point lower, respectively, than in April, reflecting
downward revisions in all major regions. China’s growth was
projected to decline from 6.6 per cent in 2018 to 6.2 per cent in
2019, while India’s growth was projected to increase from 6.8
per cent in 2018 to 7.0 per cent in 2019. In Brazil, growth was
estimated to decline from 1.1 per cent in 2018 to 0.8 per cent
in 2019.

Growth in sub-Sahara African economies was recovering, with
the region’s average growth projected to rise from 3.1 per cent
in 2018 to 3.4 per cent and 3.6 per cent in 2019 and 2020,
respectively. The increase was due, mainly, to the impact of
recovering oil production and prices, agricultural diversification
and growth in the financial sector. In South Africa for instance,
growth is expected to move at a more subdued pace in 2019
than projected in the April WEO, following a very weak first
quarter. The development reflected a larger-than-anticipated
impact of strike activity, energy supply issues in mining, and
weak agricultural production. Nigeria’s growth was projected
to increase from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.3 per cent in 2019, as
a result of the impact of recovering oil production and prices,
agricultural diversification and growth in the financial sector.

6.2 Global Inflation
Preliminary data on global inflation for the third quarter of 2019
revealed mixed results. While some advanced and emerging
market economies experienced decelerating inflation, others
had increasing inflation. Among the advanced economies,
inflation remain unchanged in the Eurozone at 1.0 per cent in
August 2019, but increased in the United States to 1.8 per cent
in July 2019, from 1.6 per cent in June 2019. Furthermore,
inflation increased, marginally, in the United Kingdom to 2.1 per
cent in July 2019 from 2.0 per cent in June 2019, but fell in Japan


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

to 0.5 per cent in July 2019, from 0.7 per cent in the preceding
month.
In major emerging markets, there were mixed developments.
The headline inflation in Brazil and India decreased to 3.2 per
cent and 3.2 per cent in July 2019 from 3.4 per cent and 3.2 per
cent, respectively, in June 2019. However, inflation in China rose
to 2.8 per cent in July 2019 from 2.7 per cent in June 2019. In
Ghana, inflation also increased to 9.4 per cent in July 2019 from
9.1 per cent in June 2019.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) of April
2019, inflation was estimated at 1.6 per cent in 2019 for the
advanced economy group, from 2.0 per cent in 2018. For the
emerging markets and developing economies, inflation was
expected to remain unchanged in 2019 from 4.8 per cent in
2018, reflecting pressures in a few economies, including
relatively strong demand conditions and a modest increase in
food inflation in India. In Sub-Saharan Africa, inflation was
projected to remain at double digits for some large developing
economies, though at a declining rate. However, the overall
inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to decelerate to
8.1 percent in 2019, from 8.5 percent in 2018.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Global crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at
69.23 mbd, representing an increase of 0.9 per cent above the
level in the preceding quarter. World crude oil demand was
projected at 100.63 mbd in the third quarter of 2019, indicating
an increase of 1.6 per cent compared with the level in the
second quarter of 2019. The rise in crude oil demand was
driven, largely, by growing demand for September and
October loading programmes, especially in Asia; tightening
crude supply in Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa,
due to planned and unplanned outages; and voluntary
production adjustments from the OPEC and non-OPEC
participating countries.
6.4
International Financial Markets
Developments in the international stock markets were mixed in
the third quarter of 2019. In North America, the United States
S&P 500, the Canadian S&P/TSX Composite index and Mexico


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Bolsa indices increased by 1.2 per cent, 1.5 per cent and 0.5
per cent, respectively.
In South America, the Brazilian Bovespa Stock, Argentine Merval
index and Colombian COLCAP indices increased by 3.9 per
cent, 17.4 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively. In Europe,
the FTSE 100, France CAC 40 and the German DAX indices
increased by 3.0 per cent, 2.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent,
respectively. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai Stock
Exchange-A and the Indian BSE Sensex indices rose by 6.0 per
cent, 0.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, during the
period.
In the foreign exchange market, thirteen (13) of the sixteen (16)
currencies surveyed depreciated against the US dollar,
reflecting continued sluggish recovery of global output, decline
in commodity prices and investor appetite for dollardenominated assets. The movement in the regional currencies
exchange rates are as follows:

Africa: The Egyptian pound and the Ghanaian cedi
appreciated against the US dollar by 2.2 per cent and
0.7 per cent, respectively, while the Nigerian naira, the
South African rand, and Kenyan shilling depreciated by
0.03 per cent, 6.9 per cent, 1.4 per cent, respectively.


North America: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso
depreciated against the U.S. dollar by 1.1 per cent and
2.38 per cent, respectively.


South America: The Brazilian real appreciated against
the U.S. dollar by 7.9 per cent, while the Argentine peso
and Colombian peso depreciated by 26.2 per cent and
7.6 per cent, respectively.


Europe: The Pound Sterling, Euro and Russian rubble
depreciated against the US dollar by 3.2 per cent, 4.2
per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.


Asia: The Japanese yen, Chinese Yuan and Indian rupee
depreciated against the U.S. Dollar by 0.2 per cent, 3.9
per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the third
quarter of 2019 included: The Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(FMFA)
convened
the
first
preparatory
Inter-Ministerial
Committee meeting for the 74th session of the United Nations
General Assembly (UNGA), scheduled for September 2019, in
New York. The meeting held in July 2019 at the Rotunda
Auditorium, Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Abuja. The
purpose of the meeting was to discuss the expectations of the
Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and Nigeria’s
participation at the 74th session of the United Nations General
Assembly (UNGA) in New York.
The Technical Committee (TC) of the West African Institute for
Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), held an
extra-ordinary meeting, centred on the Restructuring of
WAIFEM, at Conakry, Guinea from August 14 -15, 2019 under
the Chairmanship of Dr. Moses K. Tule, Director, Monetary Policy
Department, Central Bank of Nigeria. In attendance were
Central Bank of The Gambia, Bank of Ghana, Central Bank of
Liberia, Central Bank of Nigeria and Bank of Sierra Leone.
Furthermore, the 2019 mid-year statutory meetings of the West
African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), West African Monetary
Agency (WAMA) and WAIFEM held in Conakry, Republic of
Guinea from August 16 – 23, 2019. The meetings took place as
follows:

Extra-ordinary Meeting of the Technical Committee of
WAIFEM – Aug 14 -15, 2019;

35th Meeting of the TC of WAMA - Aug 18 -19, 2019;

40th Meeting of the TC of WAIFEM – Aug 19, 2019;

45th Meeting of the TC of WAMZ – Aug 20 -21, 2019;

37th Meeting of WAIFEM Board of Governors – Aug 22,
2019;

39th Meeting of the Committee of Governors of WAMZ –
Aug 22, 2019;


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Economic Report Third Quarter

54th Meeting of the Committee of Governors of WAMA –
Aug 22, 2019; and

42nd Meeting of the Convergence Council – Aug 23,
2019.
The meetings had in attendance representatives from member
central banks in the ECOWAS sub-region, Ministries of Finance,
African Development Bank (AfDB), West African Bankers
Association (WABA), amongst other observers, and was hosted
by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG).


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Economic Report Third Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Domestic Credit (Net)
25,568.20

26,408.42

27,574.32

31,736.89

32,341.48

34,291.10

Claims on Federal Government (Net)
3,286.30

3,440.99

4,866.09

7,742.16

7,583.24

9,456.33

Central Bank (Net)
23,409.80

(91.46)

342.21

3,215.42

2,754.06

4,450.03

Banks
3,262.90

3,532.45

4,523.88

4,526.74

4,829.18

5,006.30

Claims on Private Sector
22,281.90

22,967.43

22,708.23

23,994.74

24,758.24

24,834.77

Central Bank
6,420.40

6,431.58

6,574.67

7,678.57

8,504.88

8,022.06

Banks
15,861.50

16,535.85

16,133.54

16,316.16

16,253.36

16,812.71

Claims on Other Private Sector
20,489.00

21,173.75

21,109.72

22,284.77

23,117.87

23,336.43

Central Bank
5,599.80

5,730.19

5,873.28

6,870.79

7,740.84

7,258.02

Banks
14,889.20

15,443.56

15,236.44

15,413.99

15,377.03

16,078.41

Claims on State and Local Government
1,628.80

1,341.87

1,553,64
1,618.85

1,595.81

1,453.77

Central Bank
656.50

656.53

656.53

716.67

719.47

719.47

Banks
972.30

685.34

897.11

902.18

876.33

734.29

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Central Bank
DMBs
Foreign Assets (Net)
18,337.50

18,815.94

18,397.82

16,816.80

18,471.24

15,702.07

Central Bank
17,844.10

18,277.81

18,181.45

16,292.64

17,569.37

16,021.38

Banks
493.50

538.13

216.37

524.16

901.87

(319.31)

Other Assets (Net)
(10,091.00)

(14,373.29)

(12,612.88)

(14,722.61)

(15,908.67)

(14,747.99)

Money Supply (M3)
33,814.70

30,851.05

33,359.26

33,831.08

34,904.05

35,245.17

Quasi-Money 1/
14,112.90

14,802.98

15,316.02

15,890.94

16,737.58

16,341.00

Money Supply (M1)
10,701.10

10,757.68

11,752.56

10,943.88

11,161.25

11,245.42

Currency Outside Banks
1,519.90

1,601.88

1,912.98

1,780.61

1,650.87

1,653.26

Demand Deposits 2/
9,181.20

9,155.79

9,839.58

9,163.26

9,510.38

9,592.16

Money Supply (M2)
24,814.00

25,560.66

27,068.58

26,834.82

27,898.83

27,586.42

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors
9,000.70

5,290.39

6,290.67

6,996.26

7,005.22

7,658.74

Money Supply (M3)
33,814.70

30,851.05

33,359.25

33,831.07

34,904.05

35,245.17

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
6,360.50

6,802.56

7,135.73

7,246.28

8,088.46

6,977.84

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
1,900.70

1,926.38

2,329.71

2,153.22

2,014.07

2,018.84

Banks' Deposit with CBN
4,459.80

4,876.17

4,806.02

5,093.06

6,074.39

4,958.99


Source: CBN

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)*
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Money Assets (M2)
1.6


CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
-5.85


Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector
-0.04


Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Money Supply (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
-1.01
-5.47

-7.6
-13.6
-13.3
DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN
17.9


Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

Source: CBN
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.
*All figures are provisional.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion) *
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
Q3-19
Retained Revenue
1,035.72

1,144.47

798.82

944.58

1,026.95

Federation Account
824.40

828.66

709.03
716.29

866.79

VAT Pool Account
40.28

39.80

43.43

42.55

41.89

FGN Independent Revenue
85.54

90.03

38.80

148.73

115.91

Excess oil
5.50

-

-

36.33

-

Excess non-oil
3.86

2.32

6.40

-

0.92

Exchange gain
30.73

56.00

1.16

0.69

1.44

Others
45.42

127.66

-

-

-

Expenditure
1,939.90

2,017.63

1,197.04

1,579.88

1,406.63

Recurrent
1,600.45

1,358.36

854.92

1,034.38

884.79

Capital

Transfers
114.11

114.11

66.57

52.02

150.19

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(904.19)

(873.16)

(398.22)

(635.30)

(379.68)


*Third Quarter 2019 figures are provisional.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter