Classified as


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


Second Quarter

i

ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report presents economic
developments in Nigeria, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which
is published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the
Nigerian economy, as well as, on global issues that impact the domestic
economy. In addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit
of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors,
and the public. Free download of the Report, including current and past
issues are available from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All inquiries
concerning the Report should be directed to the Director, Research
Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.


Content


iii

Tables
Table 2: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major
Agricultural Export Commodities in US$ for Second Quarter 2024,
Table 6: Index of Manufacturing Production (Q42022 – Q22024) 21
Table 11: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (per
Table 14: Listings and De-listings on the Nigerian Exchange

Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Figure 3: Inflation Rates in Selected Advanced Economies (per
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) for Q2 2024
Figure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate, Q22021- Q22024, Year-on-Year
Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP, Q22021- Q22024 . 18
Figure 12: Top 16 Subsectors with largest Contribution to GDP


iv

Figure 13: Subsectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth and
Figure 19: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to
Figure 21: Nigeria’s Crude oil production and OPEC quota (mbpd)
Figure 25: Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument as at end-March
Figure 26: External Debt Stock by Instrument as at end-March
Figure 27: Developments in Reserve Money (₦ Trillion) and Money
Figure 36: Trend in Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates .... 51
Figure 37: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index 52
Figure 38: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Per cent for Sectoral
Figure 39: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX ... 54
Figure 45: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow ... 64


v

Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy


1 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
SUMMARY
The global economy showed resilience in Q22024, as robust service and
manufacturing performances drove the Global Composite Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) to 52.90 index points, from 52.30 in Q12024. The performance was
broad based across Advanced Economies (AEs) and Emerging Markets and
Developing Economies (EMDEs) and reflected the improvement in business
conditions worldwide. Global inflation, however, exhibited varied patterns,
influenced by fluctuations in food, energy and transportation costs. Financial
markets presented diverse trends globally, with the bond market continuing its
upward trajectory (following a delayed start to rate cuts by major central banks).
Crude oil spot prices increased in Q22024, primarily driven by rising fuel
consumption in the US. The average spot price of Nigeria's reference crude oil,
Bonny Light, rose by 1.62 per cent to US$86.97 per barrel (pb) in Q22024,
compared with US$85.58 pb in the preceding quarter.
The domestic economy expanded in Q22024, supported by continued investments
in infrastructure and ongoing fiscal reforms. Real GDP grew by 3.19 per cent yearon-year, an improvement compared with the 2.98 per cent growth in the previous
quarter, and with positive contributions from both the oil and non-oil sectors.
Despite these gains, inflation pressures remained a challenge. Headline inflation
increased to 34.19 per cent in Q22024 from 33.20 per cent in Q12024, driven by
high energy costs, elevated import prices, and persistent structural issues. Food
inflation reached 40.87 per cent, due to higher energy and farm input costs.
Domestic crude oil production fell by 4.51 per cent to 1.27 mbpd, impacted by
ongoing oil theft and illegal refining activities in the Niger Delta region.
The fiscal operations of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) improved, as
federally collected revenue rose by 26.37 per cent compared with the level in the
preceding quarter, though it remained below the benchmark. FGN retained
revenue also rose by 57.66 per cent but fell short of the target by 52.94 per cent.
FGN expenditure grew by 27.79 per cent over the preceding quarter, but was 4.94
per cent below the target. The fiscal deficit expanded by 16.56 per cent due,
primarily, to the 95.95 per cent increase in interest payments. Public debt reached
₦121.67 Trillion (51.22% of GDP), exceeding the 40.00 per cent benchmark in
March 2024.
The financial sector remained stable during the review period. Broad money supply
(M3) expanded by 27.88 per cent to ₦101.35 trillion, driven largely by currency
depreciation and credit expansion to critical sectors. Monetary aggregates
increased due to growth in both net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets
(NDA). However, average banking system liquidity declined, affected by the
implementation of the cash reserve ratio (CRR), activities in open market
operations (OMO), and sales of Nigerian treasury bills (NTBs). The equities market
slowed, as the All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 4.31 per cent, reflecting a shift in
investor preference towards fixed-income securities.

2 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
The external sector performance improved, on account of a positive current
account balance, driven by higher trade balance and increased remittances. The
financial account recorded a net incurrence of financial liabilities, driven by a rise
in portfolio investment liabilities. External reserves stood at US$34.76 billion,
sufficient to cover 7.89 months of imports for goods and services, or 12.09 months
for goods alone. At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the exchange
rate depreciated to ₦1,385.96/US$ from ₦1,304.72/US$ in Q12024.
Domestic economic growth prospects remain positive in the near term,
underpinned by ongoing reforms and a resilient global economy. However,
persistent inflation pressures and challenges in the oil sector could pose risks to
economic stability.


3 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity expanded in the second quarter of
2024, buoyed by robust performances in the services and
manufacturing sectors. The expansion in economic activity was
observed in most Advanced Economies (AEs) and in many
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
Inflation dropped in many AEs and EMDEs in Q22024,
influenced, largely, by moderations in food, energy and
transportation costs. Financial markets exhibited diverse
trends in Q22024 across regions and segments. The global
bond market maintained an upward trajectory following
continued tight stance of monetary policy in Q22024, with most
central banks maintaining policy rates at current levels.
1.1
Global Economic Activity
Global economic activity maintained its upward momentum in
Q22024, driven by improvements in the services and
manufacturing sectors. Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
rose to 52.90 index points, compared with 52.30 index points in
Q12024, driven by increases in output and new business, along with
accelerated job growth. Economic activity improved in five out of the
six sub-sectors surveyed, with financial services in the lead. Other
sectors that expanded were business services, consumer goods,
and intermediate goods, and consumer services sector. The
investment goods producers, however, experienced a slight
contraction in output.


Global
Economic
Activity

4 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 1: Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Composite (Output)
51.00
52.30
52.90
Employment Level
50.50
50.90
51.30
New Business Orders
50.90
52.10
52.00
New Export Business Orders
48.40
49.80
49.60
Future Output
62.60
63.80
62.10
Input Prices
56.10
56.60
56.30
Output Prices
53.50
53.80
52.80


Manufacturing
49.00
50.60
50.90
Services (Business Activity)
51.60
52.40
53.10
New Business
51.80
52.50
52.40
New Export Business
49.30
50.60
50.60
Future Activity
63.40
64.30
63.10
Employment
51.10
51.20
51.50
Outstanding Business
48.40
49.20
50.00
Input Prices
57.50
58.10
56.70
Prices Charged
54.20
54.70
53.00
Source: JP Morgan

Economic activity expanded in most AEs in, driven, mainly by
improved business activity and services. The PMI in the US and
Spain grew to 54.80 and 55.80 index points in Q22024, respectively,
relative to the levels in the preceding quarter, attributed to increased
activity in the services sector. In the UK and Italy, the PMI, at 52.30
and 51.30 index points in Q22024, respectively, showed a slower
expansion compared with 52.80 and 53.50 index points, in Q12024.
This was reflected in the deceleration in business activity in the UK
and services in Italy. In Germany, the growth in the services sector
and increase in job creation drove the PMI to 50.40 index points from
47.70 index points in Q12024. The economic activity in Canada and
France, though in the contraction region, improved to 47.50 and
48.80 index points in Q22024, from 47.00 and 48.30 index points,
respectively, in the preceding quarter. This was because of
improvement in the services sector and new orders in Canada and
Economic
activity in
Advanced
Economies

5 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
employment growth in France. In Japan, economic activity, however,
contracted, as the PMI dropped to 49.70 index points in Q22024 from
51.70 index points in Q12024, on account of the fall in new order and
rising input cost.
Figure 1: PMIs in Selected Advanced Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites

The economic activity expanded in most EMDEs in Q22024.
Economic activity gained momentum in China, as the PMI rose to
52.80 index points, from 52.70 index points in Q12024, due to
increase in new order. In India and Indonesia, PMI decelerated to
60.90 and 50.70 index points in Q22024, respectively, from 61.80
and 54.20 index points in the preceding quarter. This was attributed
to slower expansion in manufacturing and service sector in India, and
concerns over future demand and input price increases in Indonesia.
The PMI also slowed in Mexico and Brazil to 51.10 and 54.10 index
points in Q22024, respectively, from 52.20 and 55.10 index points in
Q12024, following slower growth in manufacturing and rising input
cost.
In Turkey and Russia, economic activities, however, contracted as
the PMI dropped to 47.90 and 49.80 index points in Q22024,
respectively, from 50.00 and 52.70 index points. This was due to fall

UNITED STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
50-point Threshold
Economic
activity in
EMDEs

6 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
in production and new orders in Turkey and rising input cost in
Russia. Economic activity in South Africa, improved but remain
within the contraction region, as the PMI increased to 49.20 index
points in Q22024 from 48.40 index point in the preceding quarter,
following subsiding political uncertainty amidst rising input cost.
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites
Note: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI

1.2
Global Inflation
Inflation moderated in many AEs and EMDEs in Q22024,
influenced, largely by food, energy and transportation costs. In
the US, inflation fell slightly to 3.23 per cent in Q22024 from 3.27 per
cent in the previous quarter. This was driven by easing food prices,
sustained reductions in costs of vehicles, alongside a slower rise in
energy costs. Inflation in the UK declined significantly to 2.10 per
cent from 3.53 per cent, primarily, due to falling gas and electricity
costs. Germany's inflation fell to 2.27 per cent from 2.53 per cent in
Q12024, reflecting the decrease in goods and energy costs. Italy and
Canada also recorded declines in inflation to 0.80 per cent and 2.77
per cent, respectively, attributed to reductions in transportation costs

CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
50-point Threshold
Global
Inflation

7 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
in both countries. In France, inflation dropped to 2.20 per cent from
2.80 per cent, due to lower food and tobacco prices.
In Japan, however, inflation rose to 2.70 per cent from 2.57 per cent,
driven by significant rises in electricity, food, housing, and
transportation costs. Also, inflation in Spain increased to 3.43 per
cent from 3.13 per cent, mainly, due to upward pressure from
housing and utilities, as the government rolled back some subsidies.
Figure 3: Inflation Rates in Selected Advanced Economies (per
cent)

Source: Trading Economics and Staff Computations

Inflation in EMDEs, showed varied trends. In India, inflation declined
to 4.86 per cent from 5.01 per cent, owing to lower housing costs
and food prices. Similarly, Indonesia experienced a marginal decline
in inflation, falling to 2.78 per cent from 2.79 per cent, driven largely
by lower food prices, housing and health. Inflation also fell in South
Africa and Brazil to 5.20 and 3.95 per cent, respectively, due to the
reduction in the prices of transportation and food.
In contrast, inflation in China, rose to 0.27 per cent from 0.00 per
cent, due to increases in non-food items, clothing, housing, health,
education, and transport. In Mexico, increases in food, beverages,

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024

8 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
and housing costs pushed inflation to 4.77 per cent from 4.57 per
cent. Russia's inflation rose to 8.23 per cent from 7.60 per cent,
reflecting higher cost of goods and services, while inflation in Turkey
soared to 72.28 per cent from 66.81 per cent, driven by surges in
prices for housing and utilities.
Figure 4: Inflation Rates in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics and Staff Computations

1.3
Global Financial Markets
Financial markets exhibited diverse trends in Q22024 across
regions and segments. Equity markets in AEs recorded increased
performance due to optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence
(AI) tech stocks, moderating inflation pressures and the anticipated
interest rate cuts. The EURO STOXX grew by 1.43 per cent, Japan’s
TOPIX by 2.14 per cent, and UK FTSE 100 by 2.66 per cent. The
resilience of the economy, advancement in AI technology, declining
inflation, and rising investor confidence, boosted stock performance
in the US, particularly, the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 which grew
by 7.82 and 3.92 per cent, respectively. The CAC 40 in France,
however, fell by 8.85 per cent, the FTSE-MIB in Italy by 4.59 per
cent, the Nikkei in Japan by 1.95 per cent and the DAX in Germany

CHINA
INDIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
TURKEY
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024

9 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
by 1.28 per cent. The declines were attributed to lower earnings,
rising borrowing costs, and weakened investor confidence.
The performance of equities in EMDEs also varied. South Africa
JALSH and India BSE Sensex 30 grew by 6.03 and 7.31 per cent,
respectively, driven by continued positive investor sentiment.
The Russia IMOEX and Mexico MEXBOL, however, witnessed
negative returns of 5.46 and 8.57 per cent, respectively. Chinese SZI
and Brazil BOVESPA also recorded negative returns of 5.87 and
3.28 per cent, respectively. These declines were attributed to waning
expectation of a rate cut in major AEs, cautious investor confidence,
exchange rates fluctuations and drop in metal prices.
Figure 5: Key Global Stock

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

The global bond market maintained an upward trajectory
following the delayed rate cuts by key central banks and
moderation in inflation. In AEs, the waning expectations of a policy
rate cut resulted to higher 10-year bond yields. The 10-year bond
yields rose in the US (to 4.34% from 4.19%), UK (to 4.18% from
3.94%) and Euro (to 2.49% from 2.29%). An upward trajectory was
also observed in Canada (to 3.51% from 3.47%), Italy (to 4.07% from
3.68%), and Japan (to 1.05% from 0.71%).

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q1 2024
Q2 2024

10 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
In EMDEs, bond yields in Turkey and Indonesia increased to 26.52
and 7.05 per cent, respectively, due to high inflation in Turkey and
election uncertainties in Indonesia. Similarly, bond yields rose in
Russia and Mexico to 15.11 and 9.83 per cent, respectively, because
of growing inflation pressures. Bond yields in India and South Africa,
however, decreased to 7.01 and 9.99 per cent, respectively.
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected
Countries

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon

1.4 Global Commodity Market
There was an uptick in activities in the global oil market in
Q22024, driven by increases in both demand and supply from
the US. Global supply, including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs),
increased slightly by 0.31 per cent to 102.08 million barrels per day
(mbpd) in Q22024, from 101.76 mbpd in the preceding quarter. This
growth was, largely, driven by higher production in the US, as
additional wells were drilled and completed in the Permian and
Bakken regions. Non-OPEC supply rose marginally by 0.69 per cent
to 70.21 mbpd in Q22024, from 69.73 mbpd in the previous quarter,

USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Global Crude Oil
Supply and
Demand

11 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
primarily due to increased output in the US. However, OPEC supply
experienced a slight decline of 0.47 per cent to 31.87 mbpd in
Q22024, from 32.02 mbpd in the previous quarter, following reduced
supplies from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iraq, and Iran.
On the demand side, global demand for crude oil and NGLs rose by
0.94 per cent to 102.80 mbpd in Q22024, from 101.84 mbpd in the
previous quarter. This increase was mainly driven by higher demand
for jet fuel and gasoline, particularly in the US.
Figure 7: Total Global Crude Supply and Demand
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Crude oil spot prices increased in Q22024, primarily driven by
rising fuel consumption in the US. The average spot price of
Nigeria’s reference crude oil, Bonny Light, rose by 1.62 per cent to
US$86.97 per barrel (pb) in Q22024, from US$85.58 pb in the
previous quarter. Similar upward trends were observed in the prices
of Brent (US$86.11 pb), Forcados (US$88.81 pb), West Texas
Intermediate (US$82.91 pb), and the OPEC Reference Basket
(US$85.46 pb).

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

mbpd
World Supply
World Demand
Crude Oil
Prices

12 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 8: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The average spot prices of gold, silver, and platinum increased,
while palladium recorded a slight decline in Q22024. The
average spot price of gold rose by 12.85 per cent to US$2,337.47
per ounce, from US$2,071.25 per ounce in the previous quarter. The
price of silver increased by 24.38 per cent, to US$29.03 per ounce,
compared with US$23.34 per ounce in the preceding quarter.
Platinum also recorded a 8.10 per cent price rise to US$980.01 per
ounce from US$906.60 per ounce in the preceding quarter. The
increases were driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East,
which heightened safe-haven demand for these precious metals.
The spot price of palladium, however, declined to US$974.70 per
ounce in Q22024, from US$974.99 per ounce. Despite its critical role
in catalytic converters for conventional vehicles, demand for
palladium has been on a decline as the Electric Vehicle (EV) market
continues to expand.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket
Other Mineral
Commodities

13 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent) for Q2

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The prices of selected agricultural export commodities
increased during the review period, mainly due to supply
constraints caused by weather, pests, and logistics challenges
that affected some of the commodities. The all-commodities price
index rose by 9.10 per cent to 148.89 points (Jan 2010=100) in
Q22024 from 136.47 points in the previous quarter. This increase
was driven by a 49.92 per cent rise in cocoa prices, 24.10 per cent
increase in coffee prices, 7.11 per cent in rubber prices, and 0.90 per
cent in palm oil prices compared with the preceding quarter.
However, the price of cotton declined by 10.83 per cent, groundnut
by 9.42 per cent, soybeans by 6.91 per cent, and wheat by 1.19 per
cent during the review period.


Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices

14 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 2: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major
Agricultural Export Commodities in US$ for Second Quarter
2024, Jan. 2010=100
COMMODITY
2023Q2
2024Q1
2024Q2
% Change

(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities


Cocoa


Cotton


Coffee


Wheat


Rubber


Groundnut


Palm Oil


Soya Beans


Source: World Bank


1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
Monetary policy stance remained tight in Q22024, with most
central banks maintaining policy rates at current levels. The US
Fed retained rates between 5.25 to 5.50 per cent due to a
moderation in inflation and expectation that inflation would move
towards the 2.00 per cent target. Similarly, the Bank of England
(BoE) maintained its rate at 5.25 per cent, adopting a more cautious
approach to manage price pressures. In Canada and Japan, policy
rates were kept at 5.00 and 0.10 per cent, respectively. The
European Central Bank (ECB), however, lowered its rate by 25 basis
points to 4.25 per cent.
Most emerging economies also maintained their policy stance due
to anticipated moderation in inflationary pressures. China kept its
rate at 3.45 per cent, aligning with market expectations. India also
maintained its rate at 6.50 per cent, owing to a resilient economy.
Monetary policy rate remained unchanged in South Africa (8.25%),
Russia (16.00%), Mexico (11.00%), and Turkey (50.00%).

15 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
The Central Bank of Brazil lowered its rates by 25.00 basis points to
10.50 per cent, due to moderation in inflation. In contrast, Indonesia
raised its policy rate by 25.00 basis points to 6.25 per cent to ensure
that inflation remained within the target range.
Table 3: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q3 2023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
United States

Canada

Euro Area

United Kingdom

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics


16 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.0 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2.1
Real Sector Developments
Domestic economic activity increased in Q22024 on the back of
the sustained investment in infrastructure, and ongoing fiscal
reforms. Although inflation pressure persisted, the government
continued to coordinate broad based policy initiatives to
moderate the trend.
The real GDP grew by 3.19 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q22024,
compared with 2.98 per cent recorded in Q12024, driven by
increased activity in both oil and non-oil sectors.
The non-oil sector grew by 2.80 per cent (y-o-y), same as in the
preceding quarter, contributing 2.65 percentage points to GDP
growth. The performance was driven by increased activities in the
financial and insurance, information and communication, crop
production, trade, manufacturing, and real estate sub-sectors.
Growth in the oil sector nearly doubled to 10.15 per cent (y-o-y) in
Q22024, compared with 5.70 per cent in the preceding quarter, and
contributed 0.54 percentage point to the overall growth. This
performance was driven by increased prices of Nigeria’s Bonny light
crude in the international market which rose from $79.89/pb in
Q22023 to $86.97/pb in Q22024. However, on a quarter-on-quarter
basis, the oil sector contracted, owing to pockets of oil theft,
vandalism and other security challenges.
Domestic
Output

17 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate, Q22021- Q22024, Year-onYear

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
The services sector continued to drive growth, contributing 2.21
percentage points to overall growth in the review period. The sector
grew by 3.79 per cent (y-o-y) in Q22024, compared with 4.32 per
cent in Q12024, and accounting for 58.76 per cent of GDP. The
development was attributed mainly to the significant performance of
the financial and insurance subsector.


Q22021
Q32021
Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022
Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Percent (%)
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP

18 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP, Q22021- Q22024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The financial and insurance subsector grew by 28.79 per cent
(contributing 1.52% points to GDP growth) on account of foreign
exchange windfall gains in the banking and insurance sectors. The
information and communications subsector grew by 4.44 per cent
(contributing 0.87% points to GDP growth), following sustained digital
transformation within the financial sector, including the continued
expansion of fintech firms, mobile banking adoption, and
digitalisation drive. Growth in the ICT subsector was also spurred by
increased demand for digital services, such as data/internet services
and e-commerce, which contributed to boosting economic activities
in the other subsectors. The trade and real estate subsectors grew
by 0.70 and 0.75 per cent, respectively, contributing 0.12 and 0.04
percentage points to overall growth in Q22024.
The agriculture sector grew by 1.41 per cent, compared with 0.18 per
cent in the preceding quarter. The growth was driven by continued
support from the government (particularly investment in the purchase
of farm inputs and machinery), the bumper harvest of some staples
and increased demand for wood boosted growth in the forestry
subsector. Crop production subsection grew by 1.65 per cent,

Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024 Q22024
Per cent
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

19 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
compared with 1.71 per cent in Q12024, while the forestry and fishing
subsectors grew by 2.77 and 0.38 per cent, respectively, compared
with a growth of 2.73 per cent and a contraction of 1.44 per cent in
Q12024. The livestock subsector remained in recession but showed
an improvement with a contraction of 1.71 per cent, compared with a
contraction of 23.29 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
development was due largely to unavailability of feedstock due to the
rainy season.
The industrial sector maintained its growth trajectory, growing by
3.53 per cent in Q22024, compared with 2.19 per cent in Q12024.
Increased activities in manufacturing, water supply, sewerage &
waste management, electricity, and construction contributed to the
growth outcome. Consequently, growth was witnessed in all
subsectors: mining & quarrying (7.79%), manufacturing (1.28%),
water supply, sewerage, waste management (8.20%), electricity,
gas, steam & air conditioning (5.96%), and construction (1.05%) in
Q22024. The growth outcomes were reflected in the Index of
Industrial Production (IIP), which grew by 4.13 per cent (y-o-y) in
Q22024, compared with 3.34 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Table 4: Index of Industrial Production (Q42022 – Q22024)
Period
IIP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q4 2022
88.40
-1.78
-5.35
Q1 2023
101.80
-0.49
15.16
Q2 2023
91.90
-3.16
-9.72
Q3 2023
93.10
-0.32
1.31
Q4 2023
91.70
3.73
-1.50
Q1 2024
105.20
3.34
14.72
Q2 2024
95.70
4.13
-9.03
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production.

The manufacturing subsector grew by 1.28 per cent in Q22024,
contributing 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth. This underlined
by the improvement in the index of manufacturing production which

20 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
also grew by 1.27 per cent (y-o-y), compared with the 1.51 per cent
growth recorded in the preceding quarter. Subsequently, the
estimated average manufacturing capacity utilisation increased by
0.40 percentage points to 60.00 per cent in Q22024, from 59.60 per
cent in Q22023. The performance of the manufacturing subsector
was attributed to the shifting preference of consumers towards
domestically produced goods, mainly in the food, beverage, and
tobacco, due to the elevated cost of imported goods.
Table 5: Index of Mining Production (Q42022 – Q22024)
Period
IMANP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q4 2022
190.10
2.87
4.11
Q1 2023
205.30
1.58
8.00
Q2 2023
173.50
2.18
-15.49
Q3 2023
183.50
0.49
5.76
Q4 2023
192.70
1.37
5.01
Q1 2024
208.40
1.51
8.15
Q2 2024
175.70
1.27
-15.69
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMANP refers to index of manufacturing production.

The mining and quarrying subsector grew by 7.79 per cent,
contributing 0.43 percentage points to GDP growth in Q22024. This
growth followed sustained efforts to improve crude oil production and
increased demand for metal ore. The index of mining production also
displayed a similar trend, growing by 7.66 per cent (y-o-y) in Q22024,
as against 6.14 per cent in Q12024.


21 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 6: Index of Manufacturing Production (Q42022 – Q22024)
PERIOD
IMINP
Y-ON-Y CHANGE
Q-ON-Q CHANGE
Q1 2023
57.00
-3.88
38.35
Q2 2023
49.60
-12.06
-12.98
Q3 2023
52.10
-1.88
5.04
Q4 2023
44.50
8.01
-14.59
Q1 2024
60.50
6.14
35.96
Q2 2024
53.40
7.66
-11.74
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMINP refers to the index of mining production.

Out of the 22 subsectors in the economy, 19 subsectors grew, while
three subsectors – other services, livestock, and transportation &
storage – contracted in Q22024.
Figure 12: Top 16 Subsectors with largest Contribution to GDP
Growth and their Growth Rates (per cent) in Q22024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

(2.41%) Human Health & Social Services
(1.92%) Education
(1.05%) Construction
(8.20%) Water supply, sewage, waste...
(0.75%) Real Estate
(1.85%) Public Administration
(1.34%) Professional, Scientific &...
(5.96%) Electricity,Gas,Steam & Air...
(1.28%) Manufacturing
(0.70%) Trade
(1.65%) Crop Production
(7.79%) Mining and Quarrying
(4.44%) Information and...
(28.79%) Financial and Insurance

22 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 13: Subsectors with Least Contribution to GDP Growth
and their Growth Rates (per cent) in Q22024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2.1.2 Inflation
General prices rose in the review quarter, owing mostly to the
lingering effects of high energy costs, increased import costs,
and expectations of further price rises amid other structural
factors. Headline inflation (y-o-y) ticked up to 34.19 per cent in
Q22024 from 33.20 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Figure 14: Headline, Food and Core Inflation (year-on-year)

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

-0.03
-0.12
-0.34
Livestock (-1.71%)
Transportation and Storage (-13.53%)
Other Services (-12.66%)

Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42023 Q12024 Q22024
Percent (%)
Headline
Core
Food
Headline
Inflation

COVID-19
RussiaUkraine
War
PMS
subsidy
removal,
Rate
unification

23 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Inflation remained largely broad-based across the components of the
CPI basket during the review period. Staff estimate indicated that
inflation was as pervasive in Q22024 as in the preceding quarter
(end-March), with 70.15 per cent of items within the CPI basket
remaining above the historical average of 14.18 per cent (20102023)1.
Figure 15: Inflation Pervasiveness2

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Although headline inflation trended upward in Q22024, the pace of
price increases declined for the fourth consecutive month, settling at
0.24 per cent. At this rate of decline, inflation (annualised) is expected
to moderate by December 2024.

1 The historical average was adjusted in May 2024 to 14.18 per cent (2010-2023), from 13.27 per cent (1996-2023) in the
preceding months to reflect recent reality, given the base period. This explains why inflation was less pervasive, compared
with the preceding month.

2 Pervasiveness is measured by the number of headline CPI items that are within specific inflation range. It reflects the extent
to which rising prices are affecting the cost of living. Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been high, with average inflation of
14.18 per cent from 2010–2023. Inflation is said to be more pervasive if there is a higher number of items registering inflation
above the historical average. The CPI items are therefore categorised into four groups namely, percentage of items registering
inflation of less than 5.99 per cent, between 6 per cent and 10.99 per cent, between 11 per cent and 14.17 per cent and, also
inflation above 14.18 per cent.

Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Per cent
< 5.99%
6-10.99%
11-14.17%
> 14.18%
Monthly
Annual
Inflation
Pervasiveness

24 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 16: Inflation Momentum

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data
Note: Inflation Momentum is measured by taking the CPI for December end period of every year as the base period to
calculate the year-to-date inflation. The annualised or inflation momentum is then gotten by dividing the year-to-date inflation
of the current period by the figure that stands for each of the 12 months (e.g: 1=January, 3=March, 9=September, or
11=November etc).

Core inflation rose further to 27.40 per cent in Q22024, compared
with 25.90 per cent in Q12024. Persistent by high manufacturing
input costs, elevated prices of imported goods, and expectations of
further rise in inflation contributed to the increase. Importantly, higher
energy costs, particularly the 202.94 per cent hike in electricity price
(from an average of N68/kWh in Q12024 to an average of ₦206/kWh
in Q22024), was a key accelerant of core inflation.
Component analysis revealed that the uptick in core inflation was
also derived from the following items: fish & seafood (3.91 pp), actual
& input rentals for housing (3.77 pp), meat (3.42 pp), oil & fats (2.79
pp), and clothing & footwear (2.05 pp).


Jan'24
Feb'24
Mar'24
Apr'24
May'24
Jun'24
Annualised (%)
Inflation Momentum (%)
Inflation momentum
Annualised
Core
Inflation

25 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 17: Measures of Underlying Inflation
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Although underlying inflation remained elevated across all measures,
the trend of the trimmed mean and median measures rose slower
than the core inflation measure in the review period.3 The core
measure of underlying inflation was 8.79 percentage points higher
than the trimmed median measure and 8.67 percentage points above
the trimmed mean.


3 Core inflation: measure of underlying inflation defined as headline less farm produce and energy
prices.
Trimmed Mean: measure of underlying inflation derived using the average rate of inflation after
trimming away a certain percentage of the distribution of price changes outliers at both ends of that
distribution.
Trimmed Median: measure of underlying inflation derived by obtaining median values from inflation
of CPI components.

Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42023Q12024Q22024
Core inflation
Trimmed Median
20% Trimmed Mean
Trimmed
Mean and
Median
Measures

26 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 18: Component Drivers of Core Inflation
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Analysis indicated that more items in the core CPI basket had
become volatile, hence excluded from the trimmed measures. At the
upper band of the trimmed inflation measure, available data showed
that the following items were volatile with significant increases, and
hence excluded from the computation: bread & cereals (47.08 pp);
yam & other tubers (45.19pp); actual & imputed rentals for housing
(41.27pp); oils & fats (38.76pp); passenger transport by road
(36.41pp); fish and coffee (36.28pp); and tea & cocoa (36.23pp).
Also, at the lower band, the following were excluded: telephone and
telefax services (1.42pp), telephone & telefax equipment (2.20pp),
passenger transport by sea & inland waterway (3.24pp), musical
instrument (4.40pp), motorcycles (5.27pp), water supply (5.66pp)
and motor cars (5.71pp).


Meat
Fish & Sea Food
Milk,Cheese & Eggs
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
BREAD UNSLICED 500g
CABIN BISCUIT: LOCAL MANUFACTURE 800g PACK
EKO(AGIDI/KAFA)
GARI WHITE,SOLD LOOSE
GARI YELLOW,SOLD LOOSE
MAIZE PASTE-WHITE(OGI/AKAMU)
PLANTAIN FLOUR
YAM FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Alcoholic Bev. Tobacco & Kola
Clothing & footwear
Actual and imputed rentals for housing
Furnishings, Household Equip &HH Maint.
Health
Vehicle Spare Parts
Passenger transport by road
Education
Restaurant & Hotels
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
OTHERS
Core Inflation

27 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Food inflation (y-o-y) rose to 40.87 per cent from 40.01 per cent in
the preceding quarter, due to rising cost of energy and farm input,
resulting in increased transport and logistics costs. This reflected the
higher prices of premium motor spirit (PMS) and diesel at N750.17
and N1,462.98 per litre in Q22024, compared with N696.79 and
N1,341.16 per litre, respectively, in Q12024. Also, increased
demand occasioned by Eid festivities further contributed to the rise
in food inflation.
Figure 19: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce
to Food Inflation

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The processed food component recorded a dis-inflation during the
quarter, owing largely to a decline in the contribution of garri to food
inflation to 6.84pp in Q22024 from 8.30pp in Q12024. This
development stemmed from the early harvest of cassava.
Contribution of farm produce to food inflation, however, rose following
surge in the cost of rice, maize, millet and sorghum, and yam & other
tubers.

PER CENT
Processed food
Farm produce
Food Inflation
Food
Inflation

28 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 20: Component Drivers of Food Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data
The key contributors to food inflation in Q22024 were garri (6.84 pp),
meat, fish & eggs (6.74 pp), yam, potatoes & other tubers (5.42 pp),
rice (4.76 pp), fruits & vegetables (3.09 pp), and oil & fats (2.38 pp).


Meat, Fish & Egg
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
Bread, Biscuit & Sausage
Processed Corn
Garri
Flours
Fruits & Vegatables
Yam, Potatoes & other tubers
Maize Grain White Sold Loose
Millet (Jero or Maiwa) Sold Loose
Rice (Local & Imported)
Sorghum (Guinea Corn) White or Brown,Sold Loose
Food Inflation

29 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024


Box Information 1☹)
The prices for all the monitored domestic agricultural commodities increased in Q22024
compared with the previous quarter, and the corresponding quarter of 2023. The price
increases ranged from 10.41 per cent for palm oil, to 69.18 per cent for beans (brown). This
development was primarily driven by the persistent increase in the costs of farm inputs and
transportation, exacerbated by higher energy prices.

Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Q22024
DOMESTIC PRICES OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES, SECOND QUARTER 2024


Q22023
Q12024
Q22024
%
Change
%
Change

UNIT
1/a
2/a
3/b
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)
Agric eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye, sold loose
"

Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality, sold loose
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Wheat flour: prepackaged (Golden Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Sources: (a) National Bureau of Statistics (b) Staff Estimates


30 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments
In a bid to further deepen the economy's long-term growth prospects,
the federal government sustained efforts to improve the quality of air
and road transport infrastructure in the country. These included the
approvals for upgrading Ladoke Akintola Airport, formerly called
Ibadan Airport, Alakia, Ibadan, to an international facility and the
construction of ancillary roads in Enugu, Rivers, and Lagos states.

To revitalise the Nigerian health sector and aid increased local
production of healthcare products, the government signed an
executive order to introduce zero tariffs, excise duties, and VAT on
imported pharmaceutical inputs.

The federal government, through the Industrial Training Fund,
commenced training programs for five million youths nationwide
under the Skill Up Artisan Program (SUPA). The program is being
implemented in stages with 100,000 artisans per batch. Likewise, the
government revised the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund, with a
N110.00 billion commitment to support startups and early-growth
businesses led by youths, through access to loans and
comprehensive business support.

2.1.4 Energy Sector and Electricity
2.1.4.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Development
Domestic crude oil production declined in Q22024, attributed to
persistent oil theft and illegal refining activities in the NigerDelta region. Nigeria’s average crude oil production fell by 4.51 per
cent to 1.27 mbpd in Q22024, from 1.33 mbpd in the preceding
quarter. This was due to crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the
Niger Delta region, leading to a decline in production from the
Health
Empowerment
Transportation
Crude Oil
Production
and Export

31 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Forcados, Bonny, Qua-Iboe, Escravos and Brass streams,
respectively. Nigeria’s crude oil production level fell short of its OPEC
quota of 1.58 mbpd by 308,000 bpd in Q22024.
Figure 21: Nigeria’s Crude oil production and OPEC quota
(mbpd)
Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)

The performance of the electricity sector improved due to
increased water supply to hydro substations, rise in gas supply
to
thermal
stations,
and
enhancements
in
electricity
transmission and distribution infrastructure. Thus, the average
estimated electricity generation in Q22024 at 4095.24 MW/h,
increased by 6.19 per cent relative to 3,856.50 MW/h in Q12024.
Also, the average estimated electricity consumption, at 3,918.15
MW/h increased by 4.47 per cent in Q22024 compared with 3,750.40
MW/h, in the preceding quarter. Similarly, the index of electricity
production increased by 194.47 per cent on a q-o-q basis against a
contraction of 46.04 per cent in Q12024. However, on a y-o-y basis,
the index recorded a slower growth of 6.79 per cent, relative to 11.02
per cent in the corresponding period.


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota
Electricity
Generation /
Consumption

32 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 7: Index of Electricity Production
PERIOD
IEP
Y-ON-Y CHANGE
Q-ON-Q CHANGE
Q42022
245.60
13.60
29.95
Q12023
139.40
7.40
-43.24
Q22023
389.00
11.02
179.05
Q32023
198.90
5.24
-48.87
Q42023
261.50
6.47
31.47
Q12024
141.10
1.22
-46.04
Q22024
415.40
6.79
194.47
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production.


33 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that fiscal operations improved in
Q22024, on account of higher receipts from oil and non-oil
sources. Federally collected revenue rose by 26.37 per cent,
relative to the level in the preceding quarter, but fell short of the
benchmark by 30.17 per cent. Retained revenue of the Federal
Government of Nigeria (FGN) was 57.66 per cent above the level
in Q12024 but was 52.94 per cent below the target. FGN
expenditure was 27.79 per cent above the level in the preceding
quarter but 4.94 per cent below the target. Fiscal deficit
expanded by 16.56 and 97.56 per cent relative to the levels in
Q12024 and the target, respectively, following a 95.95 per cent
rise in interest payment. At ₦121.67 trillion (51.22% of GDP)
public debt was above the 40.00 per cent benchmark as at endMarch 2024.

2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Gross federation account earnings improved in Q22024, on
account of higher receipts from oil and non-oil sources. At
N6.28 trillion, provisional gross federation account receipt was 26.37
per cent above the level in Q12024, but 30.17 per cent below the
benchmark. The improved performance reflected higher realisations
from royalties, petroleum profit tax (PPT), independent revenue of
FGN and upstream CIT.4 With regards to the composition of gross
federation revenue, non-oil revenue remained dominant, accounting
for 72.42 per cent, while oil revenue constituted the balance.
Higher receipts from royalties, PPT, and upstream CIT resulted in a
13.23 per cent increase in oil revenue to N1.73 trillion, relative to

4 Based on Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021), Companies Income Tax (CIT) now applies to
upstream crude oil production operations.
Drivers of
Federation
Revenue
Summary

34 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Q12024. The performance, however, was below the target by 67.30
per cent.
Non-oil revenue, at N4.55 trillion, was 32.22 and 23.07 per cent
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the target, respectively.
The increase was driven, largely, by higher collections from
independent revenue of the FGN, VAT and customs & excise duties.
Figure 22: Gross Revenue Outturn and Benchmark (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
(FMF)

10000
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Budget
Non-oil Revenue
Oil Revenue
Federally Collected Revenue

35 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 8: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the
Three-Tiers of Government (₦ Billion)

Q22023
Q12024 1/
Q22024 1/
Budget*
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Non-Regular Earnings/EMTL

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers

1,215.63

2,766.58

4,090.13

2,115.51
Federally Collected Revenue
Less Deductions & Transfers***

2,022.03

2,206.83

2,194.90

6,884.51
plus:


Additional Revenue
164.69
1,223.15 1,279.78
43.56
Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

2,186.72

3,429.98

3,474.68

6,928.07
Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates.
Note: *Budget is based on 2024 appropriation Act, ** Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies
(Federation Account), National Information Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid
Minerals & Other Mining revenue, and other non-regular earnings; *** Deductions include cost of revenue
collections and JVC cash calls; while transfers entail provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other nonfederation revenue. /1 Figures are Provisional


36 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Of the total statutorily collected revenue, a net balance of N3.47
trillion was distributed to the three tiers of government, after
accounting for additional revenue and statutory deductions/transfers.
The federal, state and local governments received N1.10 trillion,
N1.19 trillion and N0.86 trillion, respectively, while the balance of
N0.32 trillion was allocated to the 13% Derivation Fund for oilproducing states. Net disbursement was 1.30 per cent above the
level in Q12024, but 49.85 per cent short of the quarterly budget
target.

2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government
FGN retained revenue improved in the review period, on
account of higher receipts from its independent revenue
sources. At N2.30 trillion, provisional data indicated that FGN
retained revenue was 57.66 per cent above the level in Q12024 but
was 52.94 per cent below the quarterly target.
Table 9: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion)

Q22023
Q12024*
Q22024*
Budget
FGN Retained
Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent
Revenue

Excess Oil Revenue

Excess non-oil

Exchange Gain

Others**

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation
Note: * Provisional
** Others include revenue from Special Accounts and Special Levies.

Federal
Government
Retained
Revenue

37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Provisional data indicated that aggregate expenditure of the
FGN rose due to higher interest payments. At N6.83 trillion,
expenditure in Q22024 exceeded the level in the preceding quarter
by 27.79 per cent but was 4.94 per cent short of the projected
spending of N7.19 trillion. Analysis of total expenditure showed that
recurrent constituted 89.97 per cent, while, capital, and transfer
payments accounted for 3.66 and 6.37 per cent, respectively.
Figure 23: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion)

Source: CBN Staff Estimates and OAGF

The fiscal operations of the FGN resulted in a higher fiscal
deficit in Q22024. Provisional data showed that overall deficits
expanded to N4.53 trillion, from N3.88 trillion in the preceding
quarter, driven by a larger decline in revenue relative to
expenditures. The primary deficit, however, narrowed to N0.09
trillion from N1.61 trillion in Q12024, following a significantly lower
capital outlay.

Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Budget
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Transfers
Total Expenditure
Overall Fiscal
Balance
Federal
Government
Expenditure

38 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 10: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion)

Q22023
Q12024*
Q22024*
Budget
Retained revenue

Aggregate expenditure

Recurrent

Non-debt

Debt Service

Capital

Transfers

Primary balance

Overall balance

Source: Data from OAGF and CBN Staff Estimates
Note: *The figures are provisional

Public debt stock remained above the 40.0 per cent national
threshold at end-March 2024. Total public debt outstanding stood
at N121.67 trillion (51.22% of GDP), at end-March 2024, and was
24.99 per cent, higher than the levels at end-December 2023. The
rise was due, largely, to the exchange rate revaluation of debt stock,
securitisation of ways and means advances, and new borrowings. A
breakdown of the consolidated public debt showed that, domestic
debt accounted for 53.95 per cent, while external debt obligations
constituted 46.05 per cent. Of the consolidated public debt stock,
FGN owed N117.60 trillion (96.66%), while the state governments
accounted for the balance. 5
A disaggregation of the FGN debt obligations showed that domestic
debt was N61.57 trillion (52.36%), while external debt constituted
N56.02 trillion (47.64%). Further analysis revealed that FGN Bonds
maintained its dominance, with 78.63 per cent of the total domestic
debt stock, followed by Treasury Bills (16.95%), Promissory Notes
(2.55%), and FGN Sukuk (1.77%), while others6 constituted the

5 The ₦117.6 trillion pubic debt recorded for FGN includes the external debt of State governments,
which are contingent liabilities of the Federal government.

6 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).
Federal
Government
Debt

39 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
balance. Of the total external debt stock, multilateral accounted for
49.45 per cent, while commercial (36.54%) and bilateral loans
(14.01%) constituted the balance.
Debt service obligations in Q12024 fell by 12.98 per cent to N2.47
trillion, from N2.84 trillion in Q42023, owing to fewer maturing
bilateral and commercial obligations, relative to the preceding
quarter. A breakdown showed that domestic debt service was N0.99
trillion (39.90%), while external debt service constituted N1.48 trillion
(60.10%).
Figure 24: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition
(₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office


Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
External Debt
Domestic Debt
Total

40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 25: Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument as at end-March

Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 26: External Debt Stock by Instrument as at end-March

Source: Compiled from DMO figures

FGN Bonds
78.63%
Treasury Bills
16.95%
Promissory Note
2.55%
FGN Sukuk
1.77%
Others
0.10%
FGN Bonds
Treasury Bills
Promissory Note
FGN Sukuk
Others
49.45%
36.54%
14.01%
Multilateral
Commercial
Bilateral


41 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.3 Monetary and Financial Developments
Monetary aggregates trended upwards due to currency
depreciation and increased credit to key sectors of the
economy. Broad money supply expanded, following growths in
both the net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets
(NDA). Key short-term interest rates rose in line with the Bank’s
restrictive monetary policy stance. Activities in the Nigerian
equities market slowed, in response to rising interest rate. The
bearish performance reflected the shift of investors’ preference
from equities to fixed income securities due to attractive yields.

2.3.1 Monetary Developments
Reserve money increased in Q22024, reflecting the rise in
currency-in-circulation (CIC). Relative to the level at endDecember 2023, reserve money grew by 1.16 per cent to ₦25.02
trillion, but was 11.50 per cent and 5.46 per cent below the 2024
provisional benchmark of ₦28.27 trillion and the level in Q12024,
respectively. The growth in reserve money underlain by the 10.82
per cent increase in CIC to ₦4.05 trillion. Liabilities to other
depository corporations (LODCs) declined by 0.51 per cent.


Reserve Money
Summary

42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 27: Developments in Reserve Money (₦ Trillion) and
Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Figure 28: Q-o-Q Growth in Reserve Money

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Notes and coins, which constituted the largest component of CIC,
rose to ₦4.03 trillion at end-June 2024, from ₦3.86 trillion at endMarch 2024. The eNaira also grew to ₦0.02 trillion at end-June 2024,
from ₦0.01 trillion at end-March 2024.


-

Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Ratio
₦ Trillion
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)


Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Per cent
Currency-in-Circulation
Reserve Money
Liabilities to ODCs

43 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 29: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
The broad money supply (M3) grew by 27.88 per cent to ₦101.35
trillion in Q22024, as the money multiplier rose to 4.05, from 3.94 in
Q12024. Analysis of the liability side showed that the rise in broad
money liabilities was due to the combined growth in other deposits
(32.54%), transferable deposits (23.61%), and currency outside
depository corporations (10.38%). Other deposits contributed the
most to the growth in M3 with 20.00 percentage points (pp), followed
by transferable deposits (7.95 pp) and currency outside depository
corporations (0.45 pp). The rise in other deposits was influenced,
mainly, by naira revaluation of foreign currency deposits.
Conversely, securities other than shares declined by 97.46 per cent,
dragging the growth in M3 by 0.52 percentage point.
On the asset side, M3 growth was driven by increases in both NFA
and NDA. At ₦18.33 trillion, the NFA rose by 96.34 per cent,
contributing 11.35 percentage points to the overall growth in M3,
owing, largely, to revaluation effect.
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
eNaira

Notes and Coins

Currency-in-Circulation

₦ Trillion
eNaira
Notes and Coins
Currency-in-Circulation
Broad Money Supply

44 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
The NDA rose by 18.73 per cent to ₦83.01 trillion, a 16.53
percentage points contribution to the growth in M3. The increase in
NDA was spurred by claims on other sectors, of which claims on
private sector accounted for the highest growth of 27.38 per cent,
contributing 14.29 percentage points to M3 growth. In addition,
claims on public non-financial corporations increased by 12.55 per
cent, contributing 0.50 percentage point to M3 growth.
Conversely, net claims on central government declined by 16.37 per
cent, owing to the growth in liabilities to central government by 27.69
per cent which outweighed the 1.30 per cent growth in claims on
central government.


45 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 11: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December
(per cent)
Monetary
Aggregates

Q2’23
(%)
Q4’23
(%)
Q1’24
(%)

Q2’24
(%)
Annualised
growth (%)
Contribution to
M3 Growth
(percentage
point)

(Q2’24)
(Q2’24)
Net Foreign Assets

Claims on Non-residents

Liabilities to Nonresidents

Net Domestic
Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on
Central Government

Claims on Central
Government

Liabilities to Central
Government

Claims on Other
Sectors

Claims on Other
Financial Corporations

Claims on State and
Local Government

Claims on Public
Nonfinancial Corporations

Claims on Private Sector

Total Monetary
Assets (M3)

Currency Outside
Depository Corporations

Transferable Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than
Shares

Total Monetary
Liabilities(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


46 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.3.2 Sectoral Credit Utilisation
Sectoral credit utilisation increased by 4.68 per cent to ₦55.71 trillion
in Q22024, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. The services
sector maintained dominance in receipt of credit, utilising 51.52 per
cent of the total credit, followed by industry and agriculture which
accounted for 44.10 and 4.38 per cent, respectively.
Table 12: Sectoral Credit Allocation
SECTORS
Allocation (₦ trillion)
Share in Total (%)
Growth
(%)
Q2’23
Q1’24
Q2’24
Q2’23
Q1’24
Q2’24
(3) & (2)

[a] Agriculture

[b] Industry

of which
Manufacturing

[c] Services

of which:

Finance, Insurance &
Capital Market
Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL
37.48
53.22
55.71

4.68

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Consumer credit outstanding declined by 42.60 per cent to ₦4.73
trillion in Q22024, relative to the level in the preceding quarter.
Personal loans fell to ₦3.47 trillion, from ₦7.52 trillion in Q12024, but
remained dominant accounting for 73.35 per cent of the total
consumer credit. Retail loans, however, grew to ₦1.26 trillion from
₦0.72 trillion in the preceding period.


Consumer
Credit
Sectoral Credit
Utilisation


47 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 30: Consumer Credit Outstanding

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3 Financial Developments
2.3.3.1
Money Market Developments
Average banking system liquidity declined in Q22024, relative
to the level in the preceding quarter, due to cash reserve ratio
(CRR) debits, open market operations (OMO) sales and Nigerian
treasury bills (NTBs) sales. Outflow from the banking system via
CRR debits, OMO sales and NTBs sales, among others, moderated
liquidity in the banking system in the review period. Thus, average
closing industry balance fell by 6.90 per cent to ₦0.27 trillion in the
second quarter of 2024.
Activities at the standing lending facility (SLF) window declined,
while that of the standing deposit facility (SDF) window increased,
consistent with the liquidity level in the banking system. Total
transactions at the SLF window stood at ₦26.44 trillion in the review
period (with daily average of ₦0.51 trillion) from ₦31.40 trillion (with
daily average of ₦1.32 trillion) in the preceding quarter. Transactions
at the SDF window increased to ₦6.39 trillion (with daily average of
₦0.11 trillion) from ₦1.70 trillion (with daily average of 0.03 trillion) in
the preceding quarter.

Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
₦ Trillion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total
Industry Liquidity
Condition

48 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 31: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Analysis of the open market operations showed that the total amount
offered, subscribed, and allotted increased to ₦2.70 trillion, ₦4.94
trillion, and ₦4.36 trillion, respectively, from ₦1.45 trillion, ₦2.61
trillion, and ₦1.97 trillion in the preceding quarter. The increase in
subscription was driven by the higher stop rates of 20.62(±1.88) per
cent, from 15.75(±5.75) per cent.
Figure 32: Open Market Operation

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q2'23
Q1'24
Q2'24

₦ Trillion
SLF
SDF

Q2'23
Q1'24
Q2'24

₦ Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Open Market
Operations

49 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
There was preference for longer-tenored government securities,
reflecting investors’ precautionary motive against rising inflation.
Total NTBs offered, subscribed, and allotted across tenors (91-, 182-
and 364-day) amounted to ₦1.47 trillion, ₦6.98 trillion and ₦2.81
trillion, respectively, compared with ₦2.21 trillion, ₦12.22 trillion, and
₦5.55 trillion, in the preceding quarter. The lower amounts offered
and subscribed were accompanied by increased stop rates on all the
maturities to 18.47(±2.23) per cent, from 11.97(±9.23) per cent in the
preceding quarter.
Figure 33: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

FGN Bonds of various tranches were offered during the quarter
under review. The amount offered, subscribed, and allotted were
₦1.35 trillion, ₦1.78 trillion, and ₦1.30 trillion, respectively, relative
to ₦3.31 trillion, ₦2.39 trillion, and ₦1.16 trillion in Q12024. The
marginal rates at 20.37(±1.13) per cent, were higher than
17.73(±2.73) per cent in the preceding quarter, and the bid rates
were 19.00(±5.00) per cent, against 20.50(±9.50) per cent in the
previous quarter.


Q2'23
Q1'24
Q2'24

Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Government
Securities

50 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 34: Primary Auctions of FGN Bond

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Key short-term interest rates rose, in line with the Bank’s restrictive
monetary policy stance. The average interbank call and open buy
back (OBB) rates increased to 28.43 and 28.65 per cent,
respectively, from 21.21 and 25.53 per cent in the preceding quarter.
At the Nigeria Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) segment, the NIBORcall and NIBOR-30 rates rose by 6.85 and 5.63 percentage points to
29.01 and 23.81 per cent, respectively, relative to the level in the
preceding quarter.
Figure 35: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Q2'23
Q1'24
Q2'24

₦ Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment

Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Per cent (%)
Interbank Call
OBB
NIBOR Call
NIBOR-30day
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor
Interest Rate
Developments

51 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Provisional data indicated that average lending rates trended
upwards in the review quarter. The average prime and maximum
lending rates rose by 0.78 and 1.42 percentage points to 15.64 and
29.09 per cent, respectively, from the levels in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the weighted average term deposit rate rose by 2.27
percentage points to 10.63 per cent. This resulted in a narrower
average spread of 18.46 percentage points between the weighted
average term deposit and maximum lending rates, relative to 19.30
percentage points in the preceding quarter.
Figure 36: Trend in Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates


Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WAVTD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate; and SPRD= Spread.


2.3.3.2
Capital Market Developments
Activities in the Nigerian equities market slowed in the second
quarter of 2024, reflecting portfolio switch from equities to fixed
income securities. Aggregate market capitalisation increased from
N93.58 trillion to N104.28 trillion (11.43%) at end-June 2024,
underpinned by the appreciation in the debt segment of the capital
market, arising from improved returns on debt securities. The equities
component, however, sustained its dominance in terms of
contribution to the aggregate market capitalisation, despite the

Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Per cent (%)
PLR
MLR
WATD
Spread
Market
Capitalisation

52 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
impressive contribution of the debt segment. The equities component
constituted 54.28 per cent of the aggregate market capitalisation,
while debt and exchange traded funds (ETF) components constituted
the balance.
The equity and ETF components fell by 4.26 and 36.25 per cent,
respectively, to N56.60 trillion and N27.08 billion, compared with the
N59.12 trillion and N42.48 billion, recorded in the preceding quarter.
The debt component, however, grew by 38.42 per cent, to N47.65
trillion relative to the N34.42 trillion recoded at the end of the first
quarter of 2024. This reflected the shift in investors’ preference from
equities to fixed income securities due to attractive coupon rate and
yields.
Figure 37: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share
Index

Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

The All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 4.31 per cent to 100,057.49
index points in the review quarter, underpinned by the elevated yield
curve, which swayed investors to switch asset holdings from the
equities market to fixed-income securities.
In the review quarter, most of the capital market indices were bearish
except for NGX-MERI value, NGX-Oil/Gas and NGX-Sovereign bond

Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Index Points
N' Trillion
Aggregate Market Cap (LHS)
All Share Index (RHS)
NGX All- Share
Index
Sectoral
Indices

53 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
which appreciated. The decline in most of the indices reflected the
rise in money market rates, which lowered preference for stocks.
Figure 38: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Per cent for Sectoral
Indices
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Table 13: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indices
Q2 2023
Q2 2024
Change (%)
NGX-MERI Value
6,171.88
6,970.70
12.94
NGX-Oil/Gas
1,294.38
1,440.67
11.30
NGX-Sovereign Bond
730.80
766.01
4.82
NGX-ASeM
1,504.55
1,504.55
0.00
NGX-Lotus II
6,338.19
6,287.43
-0.80
NGX-Consumer Goods
1,610.80
1,581.55
-1.82
NGX-Main board
4,786.10
4,692.94
-1.95
NGX-Growth
5,703.31
5,576.43
-2.22
NGX-Pension Board
1,812.28
1,771.41
-2.26
NGX-Industrial Goods
4,841.20
4,696.04
-3.00
NGX-AFR Div Yield
11,006.66
10,652.71
-3.22
NGX-Insurance
405.94
390.57
-3.79
NGX-Premium
10,293.26
9,864.01
-4.17
NGX-Pension
3,934.33
3,762.21
-4.37
NGX-30
3,880.71
3,710.32
-4.39
NGX-MERI Growth
4,928.31
4,590.75
-6.85
NGX-CG
2,551.71
2,228.44
-12.67
NGX-AFR Bank Value
2,277.89
1,890.00
-17.03
NGX-Banking
1,029.63
830.20
-19.37
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

NGX-MERIVAL
NGX-OILGAS
NGX-SOVBND
NGX-ASEM
NGX-LOTUSISLM
NGX-CNSMRGDS
NGX-MAINBOARD
NGX-GROWTH
NGX-PENBRD
NGX-INDUSTR
NGX-AFRHDYI
NGX-INS
NGX-PREMIUM
NGX-PENSION
NGX-30
NGX-MERIGRW
NGX-CG
NGX-AFRBVI
NGX-BNK
% Change (Q-o-Q)

54 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Trading activities on the Exchange reduced in the review quarter as
the value of traded securities fell by 31.22 per cent to N528.40 billion.
Similarly, the volume of traded securities dropped to 27.99 billion
shares, from 35.85 billion shares in the previous quarter. The total
number of deals traded fell by 32.11 per cent to 482,764.00 deals,
relative to the level in the preceding quarter.
Figure 39: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX

Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

A total of 21 securities were listed on the Exchange (12 new listings
and 9 supplementary listings) comprising savings bonds, ordinary
shares, rights issues and futures contracts. The new listings were
lower than the 13 new listings recorded in the preceding quarter, but
the supplementary listings exceeded the 8 recorded at end-March
2024. Additionally, the Exchange delisted all trading shares of Arbico
Plc.


Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Billions Shares
N' Billion
Value of Traded Securities (LHS)
Volume of Traded Securities (RHS)
Market
Transactions
NGX Listings

55 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Table 14: Listings and De-listings on the Nigerian Exchange
Limited in Q22024
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
19.94% FGN MAR 2027
Issued
151,928,000
units
amounting to N151,928,000,000.
New listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031
Additional
47,886,000
shares
summing
to
921,413,020
outstanding units as at April 12,
2024.
Supplementary listing
19.00% FGN FEB 2034
Additional
275,850,000
shares
totalling
to
897,232,074
outstanding units at April 12,
2024.
Supplementary listing
Royal Exchange Plc:
Additional 3,121,328,866 ordinary
shares of 50
Kobo each at N0.50 per share
Supplementary listing
AVA
Infrastructure
Fund
4,075 units of N1,000,000 each
issued
at
par
under
the
N200,000,000,000.00 Issuance
Programme
New listing
17.046% FGS APRIL

Issued
1,228,300
shares
amounting to N1,228,300,000
New listing
18.046% FGS APRIL

Listed
2,985,658
shares
amounting to N2,985,658,000
New listing
Cadbury Nigeria Plc
Listed additional 402,082,657
ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each per share
Supplementary listing
Arbico Plc
All trading shares
Delisting
19.30% FGN APR 2029 Listed
79,915,301
shares
amounting N79,915,301,000
New listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031 85,050,449 additional units of
shares.
Supplementary listing
19.00% FGN FEB 2034 461,848,303 additional units of
shares.
Supplementary listing
International Breweries
Plc.
Rights
Issue
of
161,172,395,100
ordinary
shares of 2 Kobo each at N3.65
New listing

56 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
per share on the basis of six
new ordinary shares for every
existing one ordinary share.
19.89%
FGN
MAY

Listed
464,124,560
shares
amounting
to
N464,124,560,000.
New listing
19.30% FGN APRIL

69,170.285 additional units of
shares.
Supplementary listing
18.50% FGN FEB 2031 148,775,000 additional units of
shares.
Supplementary listing
17.407%
FGS
MAY

Listed
1,617,724
shares
amounting to N1,617,724,000.
New listing
18.407%
FGS
MAY

Listed
4,325,384
units
amounting to N4,325,384,000
New listing
Multi-trex
Integrated
Foods Plc.
Listed additional 788,643,533
ordinary shares of 50 kobo each
per share
Supplementary listing
Fidelity Bank Plc
Rights Issue of 3,200,000,000
ordinary shares of 50 Kobo
each at N9.25 per share on the
basis of 1 new ordinary share
for every existing 10 ordinary
shares.
New listing
NGX30Z4
Listed
futures
contracts
at
N3,905.00
New listing
NGXPENSIONZ4
Listed
futures
contracts
at
N3,885.00
New listing
Source: Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX).
Notes: FGN/FGS=Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc=Public Limited Liability Company.


2.3.3.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
The banking system remained safe, sound, and stable during
the review quarter. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) improved by
1.47 percentage points to 12.52 per cent, in the review quarter, owing
to improvement in banks’ total qualifying capital and decrease in risk
weighted assets. The ratio remained above the 10.0 per cent

57 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
benchmark for banks with national/regional authorisation, but below
the 15.0 per cent threshold for banks with international authorisation.
Asset quality of banks, measured by the ratio of non-performing loans
(NPL ratio), improved to 3.90 per cent, relative to 5.05 per cent at
end-March 2024, owing to increased loan recoveries as banks
continued to comply with extant regulations. The ratio was robustly
below the prudential benchmark of 5.0 per cent.
The industry liquidity ratio (LR) grew by 1.52 percentage points to
43.59 per cent, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. The LR
remained above the minimum regulatory benchmark of 30.0 per cent,
indicating the ability of banks to meet their obligations.


58 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
2.4
External Sector Developments
The external sector performance improved in in Q22024, on
account of a higher current account balance and improved
capital flows. Consequently, the current account balance
posted a higher surplus of US$5.14 billion. In the financial
account, a net incurrence of financial liabilities was recorded,
driven by a rise in portfolio investment liabilities. At US$34.76
billion, the level of external reserves could cover 7.6 months of
import for goods and services or 10.9 months for goods only.
The average exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 5.86 per
cent to ₦1,385.96/US$, from ₦1,304.72/US$ in Q12024.
2.4.1 Current and Capital Account
The current account recorded a higher surplus position, due to
increase in the trade surplus, on account of lower import bills.
A higher current account surplus of US$5.14 billion (11.46% of GDP)
in Q22024, compared with US$3.38 billion (7.35% of GDP) in the
preceding quarter, due, largely, to a higher trade surplus and
increased surplus in the secondary income account.

Summary

59 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 40: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Merchandise export earnings declined in Q22024, primarily on
account of fall in crude oil export receipts, following the drop in
domestic crude oil production. Aggregate export earnings
declined by 1.76 per cent to US$13.94 billion in Q22024, from
US$14.19 billion in Q12024. A breakdown of export receipts showed
that receipts from oil export fell to US$12.18 billion from US$12.42
billion in the preceding quarter, reflecting the decline in domestic
crude oil production to 1.27mbpd in Q22024 from 1.33mbpd in the
preceding quarter. The average spot price of Bonny light, however,
rose to US$86.97pb from US$85.58pb, cushioning the reduction in
oil export receipts. Receipts from non-oil exports also declined to
US$1.76 billion, from US$1.77 billion in Q12024, attributed to the
decline in other non-oil export receipts, particularly, agricultural
products. Analysis by share of total export indicated that crude oil
and gas exports continued to dominate, constituting 87.38 per cent,
while non-oil exports accounted for the balance.

Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Export
Performance
Export
Performance

60 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Merchandise import decreased in Q22024, following the decline
in the import of petroleum products. Merchandise imports
decreased by 20.59 per cent to US$8.64 billion, from US$10.88
billion in Q12024. Analysis by composition indicated that oil imports
decreased to US$2.79 billion, from US$4.31 billion in the preceding
quarter. Non-oil imports also declined to US$5.85 billion, from
US$6.57 billion in the previous quarter. A breakdown of total import
showed that non-oil imports accounted for 67.72 per cent, while oil
imports constituted the balance.
Further analysis indicated that the industrial sector, mainly raw
materials and machinery, accounted for the largest share of imports,
with 51.25 per cent. This was followed by food products (15.36%),
manufactured products (13.15%), oil sector (11.94%), minerals
(4.21%), transport (3.14%), and agricultural products (0.95%).
Figure 41: Import by Classification in Per cent
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The deficit in the services account widened, reflecting
increased payments for other business and government
services. The deficit in the services account widened to US$3.47
Industrial sector ,
51.25%
Food products ,
15.36%
Manufactured
products , 13.15%
Oil sector ,
11.94%
Minerals , 4.21%
Transport, 3.14%
Agriculture , 0.95%
Merchandise
Import
Services

61 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
billion, from US$3.26 billion in Q12024. A disaggregation showed
that total payment for services increased by 0.80 per cent to US$4.57
billion, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. A breakdown of
the components of services indicated that out-payment for other
business services increased significantly to US$1.41 billion from
US$0.71 billion in Q22024. Payments for government goods and
services increased to US$0.20 billion relative to US$0.11 billion in
Q12024, while travel services increased to US$1.10 billion (4.76%).
Payments for financial services, insurance & pension services and
telecommunication services, however, declined to US$0.13 billion
(18.75%), US$0.12 billion (14.29%), and US$0.10 billion (9.09%),
respectively.
Analysis of total payment for services showed that transport services
accounted for 31.31 per cent, followed by other business services
(30.77%), travel services (23.96%), and government goods &
services (4.44%) Other contributors were financial services (2.92%),
insurance & pension services (2.64%), and telecommunication
(2.08%), while “others” accounted for the balance.
Figure 42: Share of Service Out-Payments in Per cent

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Transportation,
31.31
Travel, 23.96
Other business
services, 30.77
Insurance and
pension, 2.64
Financial
services, 2.92
Telecommunicati
on, 2.08
Government
goods and
services, 4.44
Others, 1.88

62 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Receipts from services increased by 13.40 per cent, to US$1.10
billion, in Q22024, driven, mainly, by higher inflows from financial
services. Receipt from financial services increased by 60.00 per cent
to US$0.24 billion, transportation services rose by 5.66 per cent to
US$0.56 billion, and travel services by 12.50 per cent to US$0.09
billion. Receipts from government goods & services and other
business services, however dropped by 7.69 and 33.33 per cent to
US$0.12 billion and US$0.02 billion, respectively, relative to the
levels in the preceding quarter.
Of the total services receipts, transportation services constituted
50.98 per cent, followed by financial services (21.32%), government
goods & services (10.83%), travels (8.42%), and telecommunication
services (4.30%). Other services accounted for the balance.
Figure 43: Share of Services Receipts in Per cent
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The deficit in the primary income account widened, reflecting
higher reinvested earnings by non-resident investors. The
deficit in the primary income account increased by 2.07 per cent to
US$2.47 billion from US$2.42 billion in Q12024, following higher
Transportation
50.98%
Travels
8.42%
Financial
services
21.32%
Telecommunica
tion
4.30%
Government
goods and
services
10.83%
Others
4.15%
Primary Income

63 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
reinvested earnings by non-resident investors. A disaggregation
showed a higher deficit of US$2.54 billion in the investment income
sub-account, relative to US$2.48 billion in Q12024, Compensation
of employees account showed a surplus of US$0.07 billion which
was 12.61 per cent, higher than the level in the preceding quarter.
Figure 44: Primary Income Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The secondary income account posted an increased surplus
position in Q12024 due to higher inflow of remittances. At
US$5.78 billion, the secondary income account surplus was 0.34 per
cent above the level in Q12024. The development was attributed to
a higher inflow of private sector transfers, particularly workers’
remittances, which increased to US$5.35 billion, from US$5.14
billion in Q12024. General government transfers, however,
decreased by 26.47 per cent to US$0.50 billion from US$0.68 billion
in the preceding quarter.


Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024

Secondary Income

64 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 45: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow
(US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2 Financial Account
The financial account recorded a net incurrence of financial
liabilities, following a rise in portfolio investment liabilities,
particularly, debt securities, due to competitive rates. The
financial account recorded a net incurrence of financial liabilities of
US$2.27 billion, in contrast to a net reduction in liabilities of US$5.03
billion in Q12024.
The economy recorded a net inflow of US$4.70 billion, relative to the
net reduction of US$6.10 billion recorded in the preceding quarter.
The development was due to higher inflow through the purchase of
short-term
debt
securities
by
non-resident
investors.
A
disaggregation showed that portfolio investment liabilities increased
to US$4.42 billion, from US$1.40 billion in Q12024, while foreign
direct investment liabilities increased to US$0.56 billion, from a
divestment of US$0.30 billion in Q12024. ‘Other investment’
liabilities posted an outflow of US$0.25 billion, relative to an outflow

Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024

Secondary income balance
Remittances
Government transfers
Net Incurrence
of Liability
Financial
Account
Developments

65 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
of US$7.09 billion in Q12024, due to withdrawal of foreign currency
and deposits by banks.
Financial assets totalling US$1.89 billion was acquired by resident
investors in Q22024, as against a disposal of US$1.34 billion in the
preceding quarter. The development followed an accretion to
reserve assets of US$2.47 billion, in contrast to a depletion of
US$0.95 billion in Q12024. Direct investment assets recorded a
higher disposal of US$0.83 billion, relative to US$0.72 billion in the
preceding quarter. Portfolio investments recorded a net acquisition
of US$0.21 billion, in contrast to a reversal of US$0.15 billion in
Q12024. ‘Other investment’ asset also recorded an acquisition of
US$0.01 billion, compared with US$0.50 billion in the preceding
quarter.

2.4.3 External Debt
At end-March 2024, Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at US$42.16
billion (22.90% of GDP). A breakdown showed that the multilateral
loans, including loans from the World Bank Group, International
Monetary Fund, and African Development Bank Group, amounted to
US$20.83 billion, accounting for 49.45 per cent of the total.
Commercial loans (Euro Bonds) was US$15.12 billion or 35.90 per
cent of the total. Loans from bilateral sources was US$5.90 billion,
or 14.01 per cent of the total, and syndicated loans (African Finance
Corporation) stood at US$0.27 billion or 0.64 per cent of the total
external debt stock.
External debt service payments at end-March 2024 stood at
US$1.12 billion, compared with US$0.94 billion in the preceding
quarter. Of this, interest payments totalled US$0.43 billion (38.39%
of debt service), while principal repayments totalled US$0.64 billion
(57.14% of debt service). ‘Other payments’ accounted for the
External Debt
Net Acquisition
of Asset

66 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
balance. A disaggregation of interest payments showed that interest
on commercial borrowings accounted for US$0.29 billion (67.44%),
bilateral loans was US$0.09 billion (20.93%), while interest
payments to multilateral institutions accounted for the balance.

2.4.4 International Investment Position (IIP)
The international investment position posted a lower net
financial liability of US$66.43 billion. The stock of financial assets
increased to US$104.30 billion from US$102.38 billion in the
preceding quarter due, largely, to an accretion to reserve assets. At
US$4.37 billion, portfolio investment assets was 5.01 per cent above
the level in the preceding quarter, while other investment assets also
increased to US$48.45 billion from US$48.41 billion in the preceding
quarter. Direct investment assets, however, fell to US$16.57 billion
from US$17.40 billion in the preceding quarter.
The stock of financial liabilities increased to US$170.73 billion from
US$170.38 billion in Q12024, attributed, mainly, to the 10.76 per cent
increase in portfolio investment liabilities. At US$66.09 billion, the
stock of direct investment was below US$67.84 billion recorded in
Q12024. ‘Other investment’ liabilities also declined to US$73.92
billion from US$74.77 billion in Q12024.

2.4.5 External Reserves
The external reserves grew and remained above the benchmark
of 3 months of import cover during the review period. The
external reserves rose to US$34.76 billion, from US$32.29 billion at
end-March 2024. This level of reserves could cover 7.89 months of
import for goods and services or 12.09 months for goods only.
International
Reserves

67 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 46: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves showed that the shares of the
CBN and the Federal Government stood at US$29.75 billion and
US$5.02 billion, respectively, while the Federation accounted for the
balance. A disaggregation of external reserves by currency showed
the continued dominance of the: US dollar with US$26.65 billion
(76.65%), followed by Special Drawing Rights (US$4.23 billion or
12.16%), Chinese yuan (US$3.25 billion or 9.34%), Euro (US$0.36
billion or 1.05%) and British pounds (US$0.28 billion or 0.80%).
Other currencies accounted for the balance.

2.4.6 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
Net foreign exchange inflow through the economy rose in the
review period, driven largely by inflow through the autonomous
sources. Foreign exchange inflow through the economy increased
to US$24.55 billion, from US$22.26 billion in Q12024. Inflows
through autonomous sources and the Bank increased to US$16.12
billion and US$8.43 billion, respectively, from US$14.17 billion and
US$8.09 billion in the preceding quarter.


31.5

32.5

33.5

34.5

Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods)-RHS
Months of Import (Goods and Services)-RHS
Foreign
Exchange Flows

68 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Foreign exchange outflow through the economy fell by 31.51 per
cent to US$7.37 billion, relative to the level in Q12024. Outflows
through autonomous sources and the Bank decreased by 8.79 and
36.06 per cent, respectively, to US$1.66 billion and US$5.71 billion
in the review quarter.
Consequently, net foreign exchange inflow through the economy
increased by 49.39 per cent to US$17.18 billion, from US$11.50
billion in the preceding quarter. Similarly, net inflow through
autonomous sources rose to US$14.46 billion, from US$12.35 billion
in the preceding quarter. A net inflow of US$2.72 billion was recorded
through the Bank, compared with a net outflow of US$0.85 billion in
the preceding quarter.
Figure 47: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the
Economy (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The average turnover at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market
(NFEM) rose by 3.83 per cent to US$204.43 million, relative to
US$196.88 million in Q12024, reflecting increased trading activities
in the market.
Q2 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Inflow
40.46
22.26
24.55
Outflow
21.93
10.76
7.37
Netflow

Inflow
Outflow
Netflow

69 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 48: Turnover in the I&E Foreign Exchange Market

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 5.86 per
cent to ₦1,385.96/US$, from ₦1,304.72/US$ in Q12024, owing to
demand pressure.
The Russian rubble and the South African rand appreciated by 0.28
and 10.61 per cent, respectively, against the US dollar, relative to
the levels in the preceding quarter. The appreciation of both
currencies was due, mainly, to the decision of the US Fed to hold
rates, which made the rubble and rand denominated assets relatively
more attractive to investors. The Chinese yuan, however,
depreciated by 0.80 per cent due to investors’ expectations that the
People’s Bank of China would devalue the yuan amidst a downturn
in the real estate sector.

Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
PERCENT
US $ (M)
Average Turnover(LHS)
Rate of Turnover(RHS)
Average
Exchange Rate
Emerging Market
Currencies

70 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
Figure 49: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank Nigeria & Reuters

Table 15: Selected EMEs Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian Naira
South African Rand
Russian Ruble
Period
Chinese
yuan
Nigerian
naira
South
African
rand
Russian
ruble
Q2 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024


71 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
3.0
Economic Outlook
3.1
Global Outlook
The Global economy is projected to remain resilient for the rest
of the year, albeit with regional variations.7 Global growth in 2024
and 2025 is projected at 3.20 per cent, owing to resilience to adverse
shocks, coupled with expected resumption of policy rate easing as
inflation moderates. The downside risks to the outlook include
potential reduction in labour demand and geopolitical uncertainties.
Growth in AEs is anticipated to quicken to 1.70 per cent in 2024 from
1.60 per cent in 2023, on the backdrop of strong consumer demand,
steady employment growth, rising real income and asset prices. In
EMDEs, growth is projected to moderate to 4.20 per cent in 2024
and 2025 from 4.30 per cent in 2023. Higher growth is expected for
the Middle East and Central Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa,
whereas emerging and developing Asia is projected to witnessed
moderate growth.
Global inflation pressure is expected to ease in 2024, on the
back of tight monetary policy stance. Inflation is projected to fall
to 5.90 per cent in 2024, from 6.80 per cent in 2023, owing to
anticipated lower international commodity prices and the effect of the
restrictive monetary policy stance across regions. In most AEs,
inflation is expected to return to target levels due to more effective
monetary policy measures and a faster resolution of supply-side
challenges. Structural challenges and higher sensitivity to global
commodity price fluctuations could slow the rate of disinflation in
EMDEs.


7 The IMF World Economic Outlook April 2024.

72 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report Q22024
ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2024
3.2
Domestic Outlook
Economic growth prospects for Nigeria remains positive
despite headwinds. The anticipated increase in crude oil output and
prices support the optimistic view. It is also expected that the effects
of the tax reforms, alongside the broad-based fiscal reforms will
boost growth. The downside risk to this outlook includes global
uncertainties, insecurity, sustained monetary tightening and the
elevated costs of energy, transportation and logistics.
Inflationary pressures are expected to moderate within the short
term, largely due to the restrictive monetary policy measures and
base effect. The impact of climate change on agricultural output,
heightening insecurity and off-cycle elections, and rising energy
costs are downside risks to inflation outlook.
The external position of Nigeria is expected to remain
optimistic, driven by expected increase in domestic crude oil
production and favourable crude oil prices. In addition, the gains from
capital flows and remittances, on the back of continued
implementation of policy reforms in the sector would support the
positive outlook for external reserves. Nonetheless, the risks of
capital reversals could be heightened by the delayed interest rate
cuts in advanced economies and on escalation of geopolitical
tensions.