Date: Tuesday, 25th November 2025
Ref: CBN/MPC/COM/160/303
Attention: News Editors/Gentlemen of the Press

MONETARY POLICY RATE RETAINED AT 27.0 PER CENT

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
held its 303rd meeting on November 24 and 25, 2025. The Committee
reviewed key developments in the global and domestic economies,
including the risks to the outlook. All the twelve (12) members of the
Committee were in attendance.

Decisions of the MPC
The Committee decided by a majority vote, to maintain the current
monetary policy stance with an adjustment to the corridor as follows:
1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks
at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per
cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.
The Committee’s decision was underpinned by the need to sustain the
progress made so far towards achieving low and stable inflation. The MPC
reaffirmed its commitment to a data-driven assessment of developments and
outlook to guide future policy decisions.

Considerations
The Committee welcomed the continued deceleration in headline inflation
(year-on-year) in October 2025, for the 7th consecutive month. This favourable
development resulted from several factors, including sustained monetary
policy tightening, stable exchange rate, increased capital inflows, and
surplus current account balance. In addition, the relative stability in the price
of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and improved food supply, supported the
pace of disinflation. However, headline inflation remains high at double digit
requiring sustained efforts toward moderating it further.
The Committee was, therefore, of the view that the steady deceleration in
inflation across the three measures (headline, core and food) in October
2025, suggests that the lagged impact of previous tight policy measures is
expected to continue in the near term. Thus, maintaining the current stance
of policy, amidst lingering global uncertainties, would allow the effect of
previous policy rate hikes to sufficiently transmit to the real economy and
further reduce prices.
Members noted the robust performance of the external sector, evidenced by
the surplus current account balance and steady accretion to reserves, which
have contributed to stability in the exchange rate and moderation in
inflation. The MPC also commended the collaborative effort of both the fiscal
and monetary authorities, which led to the recent upgrade of Nigeria’s
sovereign credit rating by major rating agencies, and the delisting of the
country from the FATF grey list. Members acknowledged that these positive
developments would further boost investor confidence and improve capital
flows to the economy.
The Committee noted with satisfaction, the sustained resilience of the
banking system, with most financial soundness indicators remaining within
regulatory thresholds. Members also acknowledged the substantial progress
in the ongoing recapitalization programme, with sixteen (16) banks achieving
full compliance with the revised capital requirements. The Committee, thus,
urged the Bank to ensure a successful implementation and conclusion of the
programme.

Price and Other Domestic Developments
Headline inflation (year-on-year) further declined to 16.05 per cent in
October 2025, from 18.02 per cent in September, driven by a moderation in
both food and core inflation. Food inflation fell significantly to 13.12 per cent
in October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in the preceding month, reflecting
improved domestic food supply, stable exchange rate and base effect.

Similarly, core inflation slowed to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October
2025, from 19.53 per cent in the preceding month, owing largely to a decline
in the price of furnishing & household maintenance.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 sustained
its positive trajectory, evidenced by the growth rate of 4.23 per cent (yearon-year), compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. In addition,
the Purchasing Manager’s Index increased significantly to 56.4 points in
November 2025, the highest in the last five years, pointing to a more positive
growth outlook for the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
Gross external reserves increased by 9.19 per cent, reaching a high of
US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from US$42.77 billion at endSeptember 2025, sufficient to cover 10.3 months of import for goods and
services.
Global Developments
Global output is projected to recover in the near to medium term,
underpinned by improved trade negotiations, accommodative monetary
policy especially in Advanced Economies and easing geopolitical tension.
However, headwinds to the outlook include the potential for increasing
protectionism, geoeconomic fragmentation and likely resurgence of trade
tensions between the US and its major trading partners.
Global inflation is expected to maintain a steady decline through 2026, on
the back of the combined impact of past monetary tightening, gradual
stabilization of the global supply chain and softening commodity prices.
Inflation is, however, projected to remain above pre-Pandemic levels in the
near term.
Outlook
The Committee’s forecast indicates a sustained disinflation in the near term,
to be largely driven by the lagged impact of previous monetary policy
tightening measures, supported by the continued stability in the foreign
exchange market. In addition, the ongoing seasonal harvest cycle is
expected to boost local food supply, and further moderate food prices.
The MPC reaffirmed its commitment to evidence-based policy approach
towards achieving the Bank’s mandate of price and financial system stability.
The next meeting of the Committee is scheduled for Monday, 23rd and
Tuesday, 24th February 2026.
Thank you.

Olayemi Cardoso
Governor,
Central Bank of Nigeria
November 25, 2025.

PERSONAL STATEMENTS BY
THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEMBERS
MPC MEETING NOVEMBER 24 – 25, 2025

1. AKU PAULINE ODINKEMELU
INTRODUCTION
I vote to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.00
per cent to 26.50 per cent, adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to
+50/-450 basis points, retain the Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks at
45 per cent, merchant banks at 16 per cent, and 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA
public sector deposits, and retain Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent. My
decision is influenced by the following developments:
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONTEXT
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
The October 2025 WEO projects a slowing global expansion, with growth at
3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. This modest pace reflects a
world adjusting to a landscape marked by greater protectionism and
economic fragmentation. While global headline inflation is expected to
decline further, it will likely remain above target in some countries.
Overall, growth forecast remains dim, and risks to the outlook are tilted to the
downside. Prolonged uncertainty and an escalation of protectionist
measures threaten to further hinder activity. Specific vulnerabilities include
larger-than-expected labour supply shocks, particularly acute in ageing
economies with skill shortages alongside fiscal strains and financial market
fragilities. These could interact with higher borrowing costs and increased
rollover risks for sovereigns. Additional threats to macro-financial stability
include an abrupt repricing of technology stocks and mounting pressure on
the independence of key economic institutions, which could undermine
sound policymaking.
Growth trajectories are also diverging across country groups. Advanced
economies are projected to moderate to 1.6 per cent in 2025 and remain
steady at that rate in 2026. Meanwhile, growth in Emerging Market and
Developing Economies (EMDEs) is expected to ease from 4.3 per cent in 2024
to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. Sub-Saharan Africa’s forecast
has been revised downward to 3.9 per cent for 2025, with a rebound to 4.3
per cent anticipated in 2026.
This highly divergent and fragile outlook underscores the urgent need for
coordinated multi-level global action to address primary threats, notably

geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions. To navigate a global economy in
flux and restore confidence, policymakers must implement a coherent
strategy built on credible, transparent, and sustainable policies. This strategy
should
integrate
proactive
trade
diplomacy
with
macroeconomic
adjustments, rebuild fiscal buffers to manage vulnerabilities, preserve central
banks’ independence for price and financial stability, and accelerate
structural reforms to strengthen long-term growth.
Global headline inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory but
faces mounting headwinds and increasing divergences across regions. The
IMF's October 2025 forecast projects a decline from 5.8 per cent in 2024 to 4.2
per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, remaining above most advancedeconomy central bank targets. This moderating trend is supported by a
projected decline in commodity prices and some stabilization in supply
chains. However, the disinflation process is becoming more fragile and
uneven, with significant risks now tilting to the upside.
This is particularly evident in the diverging outlooks for advanced and
emerging economies. In advanced economies, inflation is projected to ease
modestly from 2.6 per cent in 2024 to 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 2.2 per cent in
2026.
Notably,
the
forecast
for
the
United
States
has
been
revised upward due to emerging signs that tariffs and associated supplychain rewiring are beginning to pass through to consumer prices, threatening
to slow the pace of disinflation.
Meanwhile, inflation in EMDEs is expected to decline from 7.9 per cent in 2024
to 5.3 per cent in 2025 and 4.7 per cent in 2026. While this represents progress,
the level remains elevated and the path is fraught with persistent risks. These
include exchange rate pressures, infrastructure gaps, and climate-related
shocks. Furthermore, the landscape is now complicated by new, potent
upside risks: escalating protectionist trade measures, which act as a supply
shock; potential labor supply shocks from restrictive immigration policies; and
mounting fiscal vulnerabilities that could interact with financial market
fragilities. Eroding confidence in the independence of key economic
institutions also presents a material risk to price stability.
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK
In line with the rebasing of Nigeria's national accounts to a 2019 base year,
real GDP grew by 3.98 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.
However, 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) was recorded in the second quarter of
2025 using the previous methodology. The Q3 2025 growth was led by a
broad-based acceleration in the Agriculture and Industry sectors, which
more than offset a modest slowdown in the dominant Services sector. The
Services sector continues to account for most of the output, but the recent

performance highlights a more balanced growth contribution from
productive sectors.
Nigeria's recent growth in agriculture and industry is vital for sustained easing
prices and reducing pressure on interest rates, while also strengthening
economic resilience. However, these gains remain at risk due to persistent
insecurity, which disrupts production and deters investment.
Headline Inflation (year-on-year) eased to 16.05 per cent in October 2025,
the lowest in five years and the seventh consecutive monthly slowdown. This
trend was driven by a continued drop in food inflation, supported by strong
harvests, and a fifth straight month of decline in core inflation.
The exchange rate remained stable, supported by rising capital inflows and a
persistent current account surplus. External reserves grew for the third
consecutive month, reaching US$43.20 billion in October 2025. This level
equates to 8.3 months of import cover, significantly strengthening the
economy's buffer against external shocks and underscoring sustained
confidence among investors and markets.
RATIONALE FOR DECISION & POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Global developments present a fragile and fragmented economic
landscape. The October 2025 WEO projects a slowing global growth at 3.2
per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. While global headline inflation is on
a downward trajectory, it remains above target in many countries, and
significant upside risks persist, notably from escalating protectionist trade
measures, fiscal vulnerabilities, and potential labour supply shocks. In this
context of subdued global growth and heightened uncertainty, domestic
policy space is constrained, underscoring the need for credible and
sustainable policy frameworks.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s recent economic performance provides a
compelling rationale for a calibrated policy adjustment. Domestically, the
disinflation trend is now entrenched and broad-based. Headline inflation has
declined for seven consecutive months to a five-year low of 16.05 per cent in
October 2025, driven by a sustained drop in food prices, supported by strong
harvests and a steady decline in core inflation. Concurrently, external stability
has markedly improved. The naira exchange rate has stabilized, bolstered by
significant capital inflows, a persistent current account surplus, and robust
external reserves of $43.20 billion, providing a formidable 8.3 months of import
cover. Furthermore, Nigeria's economic momentum is shifting favourably. Q3
2025 GDP growth of 3.98 per cent was underpinned by a broad-based
acceleration in the critical Agriculture and Industry sectors, signalling a move
toward more balanced and resilient growth.

A 50bps reduction in the MPR at this juncture is a prudent, forward-looking
adjustment. It acknowledges the hard-won gains in price stability and
external resilience, providing a measured stimulus to support this nascent
productive sector recovery without jeopardizing the credibility of the
disinflation process.
The decision to retain tight prudential ratios (CRR, LR) is crucial. It ensures that
systemic liquidity remains controlled, anchoring inflationary expectations and
preventing any premature flood of liquidity that could undermine exchange
rate stability. The asymmetric corridor adjustment (+50/-450 bps) actively
discourages banks from parking excess funds at the Bank's standing deposit
facility, incentivizing them instead to channel liquidity toward private sector
lending to support growth in the critical sectors of the economic such as
agriculture and industry.
This policy-mix modest easing paired with stringent reserve requirements
strikes a necessary balance. It signals a cautious pivot toward supporting
domestic output and employment, while firmly maintaining the defensive
buffers needed to shield the economy from persistent domestic insecurity
and volatile global financial conditions. The primary implication is a carefully
managed reduction in the cost of credit for the real economy, aimed at
consolidating growth in productive sectors without reigniting inflationary and
exchange rate pressures.
CONCLUSION
Based on current developments, I conclude that the improving trends in
inflation, external reserves, and productive sector growth provide a window
for a cautious policy adjustment. A modest 50 bps MPR reduction, combined
with a liquidity-steering asymmetric corridor and maintained reserve ratios,
offers a balanced path forward. This stance supports domestic economic
momentum while preserving the defensive buffers necessary to manage
ongoing risks from insecurity, global volatility, and potential inflationary
pressures, thereby safeguarding macroeconomic stability.

2. ALOYSIUS UCHE ORDU
Introduction
I voted as follows:
1. Reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50 per
cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis
points.
3. Maintain the 45 per cent CRR for commercial banks, the 16 per cent for
merchant 16 percent, and the 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector
deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 percent.
Economic and Financial Developments
•
Global Developments
The November 2025 MPC meeting convened against a backdrop of easing
global uncertainties and the resolution of the U.S. political standoff that
culminated in the end of a protracted government shutdown. Geopolitical
tensions have moderated, following the UN’s endorsement of President
Trump’s 20-point comprehensive plan on November 17 to end the Gaza
conflict, alongside his diplomatic engagements with Presidents Putin and Xi
Jinping, and Prime Minister Modi, and renewed efforts to advance a 28-point
peace framework for the Russia–Ukraine war. Additional developments,
including the renegotiation of the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA),
have reinforced a sense of improving global stability.
Monetary policy responses have mirrored these shifts. Major central banks
have embarked on a cautious easing cycle. Among advanced economies,
the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points in October
to 4 percent, while the Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark rate to 2.75
percent. The Bank of England is widely expected to follow suit. Similar trends
are evident in emerging markets: Kenya cut rates by 25 bps to 9.25 percent,
South Africa by 25 bps to 6.75 percent, and Egypt by 100 bps to 21 percent.
These synchronized moves, driven by global disinflationary pressures,
are anticipated to support output recovery. This outlook aligns with the IMF’s
upward revision of global growth to 3.2 percent from 3.0 percent, with
emerging and developing economies projected to expand by 4.2 percent
compared to 1.5 percent for advanced economies. Consensus suggests that
the disinflationary trend observed in 2025 will persist into 2026.
The recent U.S. government shutdown (October 1–November 12), triggered
by
partisan
disputes
over
appropriations
and
healthcare
subsidies,

introduced temporary uncertainty, disrupting data releases and fuelling safehaven demand for gold, while undermining the dollar. Nevertheless, the
growth impact is expected to dissipate in the near term, with U.S. GDP
projected to rebound strongly—between 3 and 4 percent—in Q1 2026,
defying earlier consensus forecasts.
While consecutive rate cuts by the Fed are expected to bolster employment
and growth, the combination of lower rates, fiscal strain, policy ambiguity,
and China’s gradual divestment of U.S. assets could temper demand for
Treasuries. Notably, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined marginally in
September, from USD 9.262 trillion to USD 9.249 trillion. This shift may create
opportunities for capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.
•
Domestic Development
Output:
Recent
data
from
the
National
Bureau
of
Statistics
(NBS) indicates that the Nigerian economy sustained its growth momentum in
Q2 2025, expanding by 4.23 percent—up from 3.48 percent in Q2 2024 and
3.13 percent in Q1 2025. The performance was broad-based, driven by a
strong rebound in the oil sector, which surged by 20.48 percent, alongside
continued resilience in information and communication, crop production,
real estate, financial services, insurance, and trade sub-sectors. While this
trajectory underscores steady progress, it falls short of the growth
threshold required to
significantly
reduce
poverty. As indicated in
my previous statements,
achieving
inclusive
prosperity in
Nigeria will require real output growth of at least 7 percent per year for over a
decade.
The near-term outlook remains positive. Growth is projected at 4.62 percent in
Q3 2025 and 4.27 percent for full-year 2025. This optimism is reinforced by the
composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which expanded for the 11th
consecutive month to 55.4 points in October, from 54.0 points in August—
signalling sustained business confidence. Continued implementation of
structural reforms in both monetary and fiscal policy spaces will be critical
to maintaining this trajectory.
Inflation: Consistent with projections at the September MPC meeting, price
pressures have eased for the eighth consecutive month since March 2025.
Headline inflation declined to 16.02 percent in October from 18.02 percent in
September, supported by tight monetary policy, exchange rate stability,
structural reforms, and fiscal consolidation measures. Food inflation softened
markedly to 13.12 percent from 16.87 percent, reflecting improved domestic
supply and rising food imports amid a stable exchange rate. Staff estimates
suggest further moderation to 15.02 percent in November, driven by

sustained currency stability, stable fuel prices, and the lagged impact of
monetary tightening.
Monetary and Financial Developments: The monetary base expanded by
12.15 percent year-to-date, reaching ₦36.64 trillion at end-October 2025
from ₦32.67 trillion in December 2024, contributing to moderate broad
money growth with minimal inflationary risk. Liquidity management through
open market operations remained effective, anchoring short-term rates
within the policy corridor. Equity market performance was mixed: the AllShare Index (ASI) and market capitalization declined month-on-month by
2.56 percent and 2.36 percent, respectively, amid uncertainties over tax
reforms and corporate earnings. However, year-on-year gains exceeded 40
percent,
reflecting
robust
investor
participation
and
improved
macroeconomic sentiment. The ongoing bank recapitalization program is
progressing steadily, with several institutions meeting capital requirements
ahead of the March 2026 deadline. Financial soundness indicators confirm
that the banking sector remains resilient and stable.
Fiscal
Developments: Fiscal
uncertainty
persists
with
the
imminent expiration of the 2025 Appropriation Act and the absence of a
proposed 2026 budget. The extension of capital outlay implementation under
the 2024 budget from June to December 2025 raises concerns about
overlapping fiscal cycles and delayed releases, which could dampen
business confidence and investment decisions. On the positive side,
federation revenue has improved despite weaker global oil prices, supported
by strong non-oil receipts. VAT collections in Q2 2025 totalled ₦2.06 trillion—a
32.15 percent increase over Q2 2024—while monthly inflows to the
Federation Account have averaged over ₦2 trillion since July. Nonetheless,
revenue remains below target, underscoring the need for enhanced
mobilization and fiscal transparency. Persistent delays in fiscal reporting,
particularly at subnational levels, continue to obscure policy assessment and
hinder investment planning.
Public debt rose from ₦121.67 trillion in Q1 2024 to ₦152.40 trillion in Q2 2025
(33.98 percent of GDP) but remains within the 60 percent debt ceiling.
Investor confidence appears intact, as sovereign debt instruments dominate
fixed-income market activity. However, rising debt service obligations could
strain fiscal resources, amplifying pressures on the budget. Strengthening
revenue
generation
and
improving
transparency
in
fiscal
operations remain pivotal to safeguarding fiscal sustainability.
External Developments: Recent policy actions have continued to strengthen
Nigeria’s external position, sustaining capital inflows and boosting foreign
reserves to USD 45.60 billion as of November 18, 2025, from USD 42.77 billion at
end-September. Portfolio investment accounted for 89.61 percent of total

capital flows, compared to a modest 1.56 percent from foreign direct
investment (FDI). This underscores the need for structural reforms to
complement
monetary
policy
in
attracting
more
permanent
and
transformative foreign capital for domestic development. Remittance inflows
also improved significantly, rising to USD 485.65 million from USD 313.72 million
in September, reflecting the effectiveness of reforms in the remittance
subsector.
Further supporting the narrative of a stronger external position, the overall
balance of payments deficit narrowed sharply to USD 0.27 billion in Q2 2025
from USD 2.77 billion in Q1, aided by higher reserve assets and improvements
in the current account balance. The naira sustained its resilience,
appreciating by 1.89 percent and 2.26 percent at the official and BDC
segments in October, with notable convergence between both rates. The
diminishing premium signals improved market liquidity and effective price
discovery mechanisms. Autonomous sources continued to dominate foreign
exchange inflows in October, as the FX market deepened and direct
interventions were scaled back.
Risks and Outlook: Despite easing price pressures globally, uncertainties
persist, warranting cautious optimism regarding the outlook for global growth.
This reinforces the need for vigilance in insulating the domestic economy and
preserving
recent
policy
gains.
On
the
domestic
front,
fiscal
risks remain elevated. Delays in presenting the 2026 Appropriation Act could
unsettle private sector expectations, weaken investor confidence, and
heighten the risk of extra-budgetary spending. These risks may be
compounded by spending pressures associated with the onset of the 2027
election cycle, with implications for liquidity conditions and inflation outlook.
Renewed insecurity in parts of the country also poses downside risks to the
otherwise optimistic macroeconomic outlook. Policy must therefore prioritize
transparency, accountability, and the removal of structural bottlenecks to
sustain investor confidence.
Rationale for Vote: Based on my assessment of global and domestic
conditions, Nigeria is well-positioned to continue to attract capital, supporting
robust foreign reserves and exchange rate stability. This outlook, however,
hinges on strict adherence to FX reforms, effective policy coordination, and
avoidance of disruptive surprises. The economy has recorded broad-based
growth, eight consecutive months of disinflation, and a stable, strengthening
naira—developments that have significantly altered the macroeconomic
narrative.
Nevertheless, I am conscious of the fact that inflation remains a major
challenge and the task of fighting inflation is a marathon, not a sprint. We
must learn the lessons of other countries which shows that lowering inflation

from a high to a sustainable level takes time, often over a period of three to
five years. Some countries have celebrated victory over inflation and
prematurely loosened policy only to reverse course.
This is thus not a time for rapid loosening of policy. While welcoming the
moderation in price pressures, we should continue to signal our tight policy
stance
in
the
period
ahead. We
must
persevere,
continue
to demonstrate policy credibility and consistency; keep our eyes on the prize:
macroeconomic stability and stronger growth brought about by defeating
inflation.
The challenge now is to consolidate on the gains made and translate them
into jobs, productivity, and inclusive growth. Against this backdrop, I support
a cautious easing stance and an adjustment of the symmetric corridor to
foster credit intermediation and investment, thereby accelerating growth. At
this critical inflection point, policy adjustments must remain measured,
balancing
the
imperative
of
supporting
growth
with
the
need
to contain inflationary risks.

3. BALA MOH’D BELLO MoN
Introduction
At the November 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, following
a thorough review of recent global and domestic macroeconomic
developments and a robust assessment of available data, I voted to
maintain the current stance of monetary policy, with an adjustment to the
corridor as follows:
1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks
at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per
cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Retain the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.
Rationale
The November meeting provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact of
previous monetary policy decisions on key macroeconomic indicators,
reassess prevailing risks, and review the short- to medium-term outlook.
Notably, remarkable gains have been recorded, including a steady decline
in headline inflation, Nigeria’s delisting from the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) grey list, upgraded sovereign credit ratings, stability in the naira
exchange rate, significant accretion to external reserves, and a positive
output growth trajectory. Preserving these gains remains a priority as 2025
draws to a close, considering lingering global and domestic risks. Ultimately,
my decision was data-driven and evidence-based.
I note with delight recent reports by the National Bureau of Statistics showing
further decline in headline inflation year-on-year for the seventh consecutive
month to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, from 18.02 per cent in September.
Food inflation also trended significantly downwards to 13.12 per cent in
October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in the preceding month, while core
inflation slowed to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2025, from 19.53
per cent in the preceding month, owing largely to a decline in the price of
furnishing & household maintenance.
The remarkable decline in headline inflation rate underscores the importance
of policy consistency and collaborative efforts of the fiscal authority which
helped ramp up food production, thus, bridging the supply-demand gap.
Stability in the exchange rate and favourable base effects also contributed
to the notable decline.

At the current inflation level, real yields (MPR less headline inflation) remain
positive, a development that would bolster investor confidence and
enhance economic expectations. Continued moderation in domestic prices
is expected as monetary and fiscal policies remain coordinated, alongside
stability in the exchange rate. Risk factors such as the traditional end-of-year
surge in demand should, however, not be ignored.
While more recent numbers for real Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) are
awaited, leading indicators such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)
indicate sustained positive economic momentum. The PMI increased
significantly to 56.4 points in November 2025, the highest in the last five years,
pointing to a stronger outlook for the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Recall
that the rGDP for the second quarter of 2025 stood at 4.23 per cent (year-onyear), compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, thus,
maintaining its positive trajectory.
The strong economic performance is mirrored in the financial system, which
continues to post robust soundness indicators despite the current tight stance
of monetary policy. Staff reports to the Committee indicate considerable
progress in the recapitalization programme, with sixteen (16) banks already in
full compliance with the revised capital requirements. The exercise will further
enhance banks’ capacity to absorb risks and strengthen their role in
supporting economic activity.
Gains of previous policy decisions are also reflected in key external sector
indices. For the first time in several years, gross external reserves increased by
9.19 per cent, reaching a high of US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from
US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025, sufficient to cover 10.3 months of
import for goods and services. The transparency in foreign exchange
management policies and sustained macroeconomic stability are expected
to further boost investor confidence, improve capital inflows, and generate
positive pass-through effects to domestic prices.
At this point, I must acknowledge the collaborative efforts of the Central Bank
of Nigeria, fiscal authority and other relevant agencies which led to the
recent upgrade of Nigeria’s sovereign ratings and delisting of Nigeria from
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. These developments would
further enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness globally and attract foreign
capital with positive macroeconomic outcomes.
Conclusion
Overall, I recognize that the relative stability enjoyed by the Nigerian
economy reflects the combined and individual potency of our past policy
decisions. I am also convinced that the current levels of key policy

parameters are suitable; this would prevent the disruption of on-going
transmission of previous policies, especially the September 2025 MPC decision
given the well-established policy lag effects. More so, the current level of real
policy rate remains appropriate to balance the objectives of exchange rate
stability, price stability and output stabilization without introducing disruptive
policy shocks.
Notwithstanding persistent global risks, the continued improvement in key
domestic fundamentals, particularly output and inflation, as well as external
sector indicators, supports the conclusion that there is no immediate need to
alter the current stance of monetary policy. Although inflation remains above
the 6–9 per cent benchmark, it is on a downward trajectory, reflecting the
effectiveness of ongoing efforts to address supply-side pressures. In addition,
routine monetary sterilization continues to play a critical role in containing
demand-induced inflation.
To further strengthen the Bank’s sterilization operations and enhance the
effectiveness of earlier policy actions, I consider an adjustment to the corridor
around the MPR necessary. Accordingly, I vote for an adjustment to the
Standing Facility corridor around the MPR.

4. BANDELE A.G. AMOO
In view of the recently observed developments in the domestic and external
economies, I hereby vote as follows:
a) Reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 per
cent.
b) Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
points.
c) Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.0 per cent for Commercial
Banks and 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks.
d) Retain the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits.
e) Retain the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30.0 per cent.
My decision was influenced by the following considerations.
1. Global Economic Developments
The global economic recovery persisted in the medium term, underpinned by
improved trade negotiations, accommodative monetary policy especially in
advanced economies and easing geopolitical tension. However, headwinds
to
the
outlook
include
the
potential
for
increasing
protectionism,
geoeconomic and trade fragmentation and likely resurgence of trade
tensions between the US and its major trading partners. Though headline
inflation in major advanced economies has eased further, core inflation
persists, compelling central banks to maintain a cautious stance. The U.S
Federal Reserve's continuous pause, alongside similar postures from the
European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), reflects a global
consensus. In view of these developments, the global monetary policy and
financial conditions remain slightly accommodative.
2. Domestic Macroeconomic Developments
The domestic economy expanded by 4.58 per cent year-on-year, in Q3 2025,
maintaining its positive growth trajectory and marking a modest acceleration
from the 4.23 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2025. Resilient growth across
trade, ICT, agriculture, and financial services continues to drive economic
performance.
This performance underscores the resilience of the non-oil sector, which
continues to serve as the primary engine of economic activity. Notably,
growth was driven by Services (4.92%), Agriculture (2.15%), and a resurgent
Manufacturing sector, which posted a growth of 1.88 per cent, indicating

current gains from the ongoing structural reforms and improved foreign
exchange availability for raw materials. This development was corroborated
by the October 2025 composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which rose
to 55.40 compared with 54.00 in September 2025, indicating sustained
expansion in economic activities for the eleventh consecutive month.
This growth is occurring alongside a continued disinflation trend. Headline
inflation (year-on-year) slowed to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per
cent in the preceding month, on account of sustained increase in the supply
of food, particularly, grains and tubers as well as decline in transportation
costs which helped to drive down prices of many consumer items. This trend is
supported by a slowdown in both food inflation and core inflation. While this
disinflationary path is a key policy success, the pace remains gradual, and
the current level of inflation is still profoundly constraining economic welfare
and investment planning.
The banking system remains stable, sound and resilient. Many financial
soundness indicators in respect of our financial system stood within approved
benchmark levels. The successful recapitalisation of a substantial number of
banks has strengthened the sector further. However, the transmission of
systemic liquidity into broad-based productive credit remains suboptimal.
Credit to the private sector (CPS) is growing marginally, sectoral
concentration in oil & gas still subsists, manufacturing, and general
commerce credit share remains excessive, crowding out credit to the
agriculture and SMEs. The external sector shows resilience, with the current
account surplus sustained by improved remittance inflows. The relative
stability of the naira in recent weeks is encouraging but remains fragile.
3.0 My Concern
My main concern this period is that, while the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA
public sector deposits introduced in September 2025 has begun to sterilise
FAAC-induced liquidity, fiscal injections remain another potent source of
excess liquidity. Excessive liquidity, if not well managed can pose a latent
threat to exchange rate stability and the disinflation success. The
approaching 2026 budget cycle and the early shadow of the 2027 electoral
season, which may fuel higher government consumption/expenditure,
underscore the imperative for monetary policy to maintain a firm, antiinflationary stance to prevent a derailment of our hard-won disinflation gains.
That was the reason I chose a modest slack in policy rate to encourage
financial sector operators channel credit to productive sectors to boost
aggregate production during the festive seasons.

Nigeria
stands
at
an
important
juncture
today
as
fundamental
macroeconomic indices continue to improve: policy reforms have begun to
restore investor trust, general consumer prices are declining, non-oil export
basket and procedure is improving, reserves are recovering, and external
liquidity conditions are gradually improving. So far, the durability of these
gains depends on whether the economy can transit away from random
inflows toward a foundation built on economic productivity, institutional
credibility, and export diversification. Achieving this shift will transform
Nigeria’s external reserves from a fragile buffer into a strategic asset capable
of supporting macroeconomic stability, long-term growth, and sustained
economic resilience.
To this end, I am of the opinion that a bold, strategic hold for most
parameters is the most prudent policy action at this meeting. A small ease in
MPR, strongly reinforced by adjusted rate corridors will strengthen critical
sectors and help to moderate the risk of high inflation expectations. Also, a
rate ease could improve the growth momentum and boost the current
positive sentiment in the capital market.
Therefore, I voted to reduce the MPR to reaffirm our unwavering commitment
to inclusive growth and price stability. The adjustment of the standing facility
corridor to +50/-450 bps is a critical, complementary operational tool.
Narrowing the deposit-taking window to -450bps reduce the incentive for
banks to place idle liquidity with the CBN, enhancing the effectiveness of our
intention to increase credit to real sector economy. I support retaining the
CRR measures introduced in September. The 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA
deposits is essential for continued sterilisation of public sector liquidity at its
source. Maintaining the 45 per cent CRR for deposit money banks provides
them the operational flexibility to manage this new regime and, over time, reorient portfolios towards more productive lending.
4.0 Conclusion
The current policy mix supports the structural balance needed for economic
growth. It allows previous policy actions more time to fully transmit through
the Nigerian economy; it can further strengthen the moderation of fiscaldriven liquidity, helps sustain a tight monetary environment to further
entrench the current disinflation trend.
We must remain vigilant by continuing to monitor the impact of these liquidity
measures closely and stand ready to make adjustments the when necessary.
I reiterate the need for strengthened collaboration with the fiscal authorities
to ensure spending efficiency and to fast-track on-going structural reforms,
particularly in power, agriculture, infrastructure and logistics, to address the

supply-side drivers of inflation. Our communication must also remain clear
and consistent to firmly anchor inflation expectations.

5. EMEM USORO
At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on November 24 - 25, 2025, I
voted to:
i. Retain the MPR at 27%
ii. Adjust the Asymmetric Corridor from +250/-250 basis points to +50/-450
basis points around the MPR.
iii. Retain the CRR for commercial banks deposits at 45%, a 75% CRR on
non-TSA public deposit, CRR for merchant banks at 16%; and
iv. Retain the LR at 30.0%.
This policy adjustment reflects my recognition of recent progress in
macroeconomic stabilization, and the importance of maintaining financial
system resilience amid moderating inflation and improving external
conditions.
Recent developments in the global and domestic economy point to a
cautiously improving macroeconomic environment, although characterised
by persistent vulnerabilities that require a disciplined and forward-looking
monetary policy stance. Externally, there has been a gradual easing in global
inflation, supported by softening food and energy prices, and improvements
in supply chain efficiency, supported in part by new technologies, better
logistics architecture, and productivity gains from AI adoption. Business
confidence
indicators
globally
have
strengthened,
with
Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) readings signalling expansion in both manufacturing
and services, following earlier periods of contraction.
However, volatility persists as geopolitical concerns remain elevated, and
major central banks continue to navigate complex policy trade-offs.
Although major central banks have signalled caution regarding future policy
directions, the global monetary environment is still relatively tight, with
markets sensitive to unexpected policy signals and asset-price volatility.
Commodity markets provide mixed signals, with crude oil prices declining
due to weaker demand from China and robust non-OPEC supply, while gold
prices have strengthened on account of flight-to-safety positions.
Within this challenging external environment, domestic indicators suggest
momentum is gradually strengthening. High-frequency data show continued
expansion in business activity, with industrial output moving from contraction
to modest growth on the back of improved domestic demand and

enhanced productivity in the oil sector. Inflation continues to moderate, with
notable disinflation in the food component due to improved harvest
conditions, easing logistics bottlenecks, and relative exchange-rate stability.
Investor confidence appears stronger, reflected in risk-on sentiments. External
buffers have strengthened, with gross reserves reaching about postpandemic highs, supporting a more resilient FX market. Broad money supply
grew, fuelled by an increase in net foreign assets, and improvements in
reserve money. These gains indicate visible progress in stabilising the
macroeconomic environment.
Notwithstanding the improvement, several pressure points remain evident.
Inflation expectations are yet to be fully anchored, given that disinflation has
so far been driven primarily by supply-side conditions rather than monetary
transmission. The exchange rate, while currently stable, remains vulnerable to
seasonal demand pressure, domestic security concerns, and shifts in global
risk sentiment. Equally important is concerns around the sensitivity of foreign
portfolio flows to external narratives, particularly recent geopolitical
commentary and security-related statements from advanced economies,
which can influence FX demand and investor confidence.
In addition, monetary and financial stability indicators present a mixed
picture. On one hand, capital adequacy and liquidity ratios improved,
supported by recapitalisation activities. On the other hand, asset quality
deterioration and rising contagion exposure reflects growing liquidity
preference among banks and uneven distribution of reserves. Empirical stresstest highlight the susceptibility of the banking system to moderate shocks,
particularly given contagion exposure. These trends require carefully
calibrated tools that recognise the endogenous nature of money and credit.
From a policy perspective, liquidity conditions have improved following the
introduction of the 75% CRR on non-TSA deposits. However, seasonal fiscal
flows during December and January, along with election-related spending
and end-of-year liquidity movements, pose risks to current conditions and
could amplify the already existing imbalance, thus, placing pressure on both
money-market rates and the exchange rate.
In view of these factors, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance
remains appropriate. Retaining the Monetary Policy Rate at 27% reinforces
anti-inflation signalling and supports the disinflation trajectory without
jeopardising recent gains. Adjusting the corridor is consistent with managing
upward rate volatility and discouraging passive liquidity parking in the
standing deposit window, while promoting interbank activity. This operational
refinement aligns with the Committee’s broader aim of controlled

normalisation, helping maintain monetary discipline without imposing
additional contraction on an economy.
Looking forward, my vote at the next meeting will depend on whether inflation
expectations remain anchored given the expected base-effect rebound in the
first quarter of 2026; FX stability is supported by adequate liquidity and external
buffers, and whether credit transmission improves as the bankingsystem
conditions normalise. Thus, continuous monitoring of inflation expectations, FX
stability, NPL evolution, and interbank liquidity distribution will be essential.
Enhancing liquidity forecasting, refining CRR operations, and deploying
targeted macroprudential interventions, rather than relying solely on interestrate tools, will be critical to supporting financial stability and sustaining recovery.

6. LYDIA SHEHU JAFIYA
Introduction
At the 303rd meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), I voted to
maintain all policy parameters at their extant levels:
1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Retain the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR at +250/-250 basis
points.
3. Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Commercial Banks and
Merchant Banks at 45.0 and16.0 per cent, respectively.
Retain the CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits at 60.0 per cent.
4. Maintain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 per cent.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Global economic growth is forecast to slow to 3.2 and 3.1 per cent in 2025
and 2026, respectively, (World Economic Outlook, October 2025). Though,
slightly better than the June 2025 WEO projections, growth remains below the
world’s expectations. While better financial conditions and reduced
controversies over tariffs provide strong impetus for growth, prolonged policy
uncertainties, trade fragmentation, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain key risks
to the global outlook.
Global headline inflation is projected to moderate to 4.2 and 3.7 per cent in
2025 and 2026, respectively, from 5.7 per cent in 2024 (WEO, October 2025).
The outlook is on account of easing demand pressures, lower energy prices,
moderating supply chain disruptions and de-escalation of geopolitical crisis.
Inflation outcomes have shown divergences among major advanced
economies. Likewise, in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
(EMDEs) disinflation is expected to continue with notable variations across
countries.
Global trade is forecast to grow by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9 percent in
2025 and 2026, apiece. This is supported by some clarity around tariff regimes,
including renewed momentum of reforms across the globe and increased
production enabled by artificial intelligence. Downside risks to global trade
include increasing economic fragmentation, financial market fragility, labour
supply shocks and lingering geopolitical tensions.
Financial conditions eased as major economies cut interest rates in response
to inflation moderation. Exchange rates of several economies particularly in
EMDEs improved as the US dollar fluctuated. Global debt rose in the second
quarter of 2025 largely due to the spillover effects of accommodative fiscal

and monetary policies associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, including
debt service costs. Capital flows to EMDEs remained positive as Advanced
Economies sustained monetary policy easing.
THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Real Gross Domestic Product (year-on-year) maintained an upward
trajectory, following the growth rate of 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of
2025, compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Growth
performance was supported by the improvement in the Composite
Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) which increased to 56.4 index points in
November 2025, above the 50.0 index points benchmark, signaling a
sustained growth outlook for the subsequent quarters in 2025. Growth
performance remained above the rate of growth of the population.
Headline inflation (year-on-year) declined to 16.05 per cent in October 2025,
from 18.02 per cent in September, driven by a moderation in both food and
core inflation. Food inflation (year-on-year) fell sharply to 13.12 per cent in
October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in September on account of improved
food supply, aided by the harvest season. Similarly, core inflation moderated
to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2025, from 19.53 per cent in the
preceding month, owing largely to a stable exchange rate and improvement
in domestic fuel supplies.
On the external sector, gross external reserves increased by 9.19 per cent,
reaching a high of US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from US$42.77
billion at end-September 2025. The reserves are adequate to cover 10.3
months of import of goods and services. The foreign exchange rate has
remained stable, supported by improved market liquidity, enhanced policy
coordination, and positive market sentiment.
The prudential indicators of the banking system are largely within regulatory
requirements. The outlook is significantly positive given the success recorded
with the banking system recapitalization exercise and the central bank’s
commitment to regulatory best practices and effective risk management.
CONSIDERATIONS FOR VOTING
The November 2025 MPC meeting was held against the backdrop of
sustained improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions, including
rapidly moderating price levels, positive economic growth rate, continuous
stability in the foreign exchange market, and comfortable external reserves
position. Other developments include improved sovereign ratings by Fitch
and Standard & Poor’s, and the removal of Nigeria from the Financial Action
Task Force (FATF) Grey List, amongst others.

These achievements reflect the policy trade-offs undertaken by the monetary
and fiscal authorities, which have improved public and market confidence
by enhancing policy signaling, reducing uncertainty, and supporting
conditions for a stable environment for sustainable economic growth.
It is noteworthy that, since its February 2024 meeting, the Monetary Policy
Committee has pursued a policy mix designed to balance competing
objectives, particularly those of disinflation and growth acceleration. The
rapid deceleration of inflation affirms the central bank’s commitment to its
price and monetary stability objective.
Although the recent stabilization in domestic macroeconomic conditions
suggests that a reduction in the policy rate may be optimal, the available
policy space remains constrained. However, with inflation still elevated at
16.05 per cent, there is need to tread cautiously as the risk to the outlook is on
the upside.
Indeed, there is a need to remain data-driven and continue to assess the
balance of risks and how they could impact the economy in the near to
medium term, particularly given the volatile external environment. It is
noteworthy that year-end festivities and pre-election activities are risk factors
that could impact inflation in the near to medium term. Accordingly, it is
appropriate to hold policy parameters at their current levels, while continuing
to monitor emerging risks and adjust as necessary.
Overall, the fiscal authority remains committed to policy coordination, fiscal
sustainability and structural reforms that creates room for predictable taxes
and investment climate to boost economic growth and job creation.

7. LAMIDO ABUBAKAR YUGUDA
Policy Decision and Rationale
At the 303rd Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on November 24 and
25, 2025, I voted to:
a) reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50
percent;
b) adjust the Standing Facility corridor to +50/-450 basis points around the
MPR;
c) retain the Cash Reserve Requirement at 45 percent for Deposit Money
Banks, 16 percent for Merchant Banks, and 75 percent for non-TSA
public sector deposits; and
d) maintain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.
The case for modest monetary easing at this juncture rests on compelling
evidence of significant progress in the disinflation trajectory and improving
macroeconomic conditions that warrant a carefully calibrated policy
adjustment.
Economic Performance and Disinflation Progress
The most compelling argument for the rate reduction is the substantial
disinflation achieved over recent months. Headline inflation declined sharply
to 16.05 percent in October 2025 from 18.02 percent in September, marking
the seventh consecutive month of decline. This represents over 4 percent
reduction in headline inflation within a four-month window, reflecting the
effective transmission of previous monetary policy tightening measures
implemented at earlier meetings.
The disinflation has been broad-based across all inflation measures. Food
inflation fell significantly to 13.12 percent in October from 16.87 percent in
September, driven by improved domestic food supply and stable exchange
rate conditions. Concurrently, core inflation moderated to 18.69 percent from
19.53 percent, primarily due to declining prices in furnishing and household
maintenance categories.
Domestic Economic Conditions
Real economic activity demonstrates resilience with real GDP growth of 3.98
percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. While this represents a
deceleration from the 4.23 percent recorded in Q2 2025, it reflects a marked
improvement over the 3.13 percent achieved in Q1 2025 and exceeds the
3.86 percent posted in Q3 2024. This sustained positive trajectory, despite the

moderation, underscores the underlying strength of the economy and
provides confidence in the growth outlook.
Growth has been broad-based across key non-oil sectors, which contributed
96.56 percent to real GDP. The services sector expanded by 4.15 percent
and accounted for 53.02 percent of total real GDP, reflecting sustained
strength in telecommunications, financial services, and real estate.
Agriculture grew by 3.79 percent, while the industrial sector expanded by
3.77 percent. Overall, the non-oil sector grew by 3.91 percent in real terms,
outperforming both the 3.79 percent recorded in Q3 2024 and the 3.64
percent achieved in Q2 2025.
The oil sector recorded real growth of 5.84 percent year-on-year in Q3 2025,
with crude oil production averaging 1.64 million barrels per day, reflecting
11.6 percent year-on-year improvement compared to 1.47 million barrels per
day in Q3 2024. However, oil sector growth decelerated sharply from the
20.46 percent expansion recorded in Q2 2025, and on a quarter-on-quarter
basis, the sector contracted by 5.53 percent, reflecting the volatility
characteristic of the oil industry.
The Purchasing Managers' Index reached 56.4 points in November 2025, the
highest level in five years, signaling strengthened business activity and
positive growth prospects for the remainder of 2025.
Broad money growth strengthened from 3.91 percent (year-to-date) in
September to 5.01 percent in October 2025, supported largely by gains in net
foreign assets
The external sector has remained robust, with gross external reserves rising by
4.52 percent to US$44.26 billion as of November 21, 2025, from US$42.35 billion
at end-September. This level provides adequate cover for approximately 10.3
months of imports, reinforcing external stability. The stronger reserve position
reflects a surplus current account balance and sustained capital inflows,
which have supported exchange rate stability and contributed to the
ongoing disinflationary trend.
Global Macroeconomic Environment
The global backdrop provides further support for monetary accommodation.
The US Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts in its policy cycle, and a weaker
US dollar has emerged as global monetary policy shifts toward greater
accommodation, particularly in advanced economies. These developments
are expected to enhance foreign portfolio investment flows to Nigeria,
particularly given the relative attractiveness of domestic yields and the
recent sovereign credit rating upgrades from S&P and Fitch. The delisting of

Nigeria from the FATF grey list further strengthens the investment climate and
investor confidence.
Global inflation continues its steady decline trajectory, supported by past
monetary tightening in major economies, gradual supply chain stabilization,
and softening commodity prices. However, global uncertainty persists
regarding protectionism, geoeconomic fragmentation, and potential trade
tensions that could affect global demand.
Assessment of Previous Policy Actions and Near-term Outlook
The MPC's decision at its previous meeting to reduce the Cash Reserve
Requirement by 500 basis points to 45 percent for Deposit Money Banks
represented a significant injection of liquidity into the financial system. This
substantial easing measure, which was only slightly dampened by the
introduction of a 75 percent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits (which
affects only about 6 percent of total banking sector deposits), has provided
considerable monetary accommodation.
However, given the steady deceleration in inflation and the lagged effects of
previous policy tightening, there is merit in allowing a measured reduction in
the MPR. Data indicate that the disinflationary process remains on track,
supported by exchange rate stability, improved food supply conditions, and
the anticipated seasonal harvest cycle expected to further moderate food
prices.
Risk Factors and Considerations
Nevertheless, significant downside risks warrant close monitoring and
potentially constrain further rate cuts. Exchange rate depreciation pressures
remain, as persistent foreign exchange demand continues despite steady
reserve accumulation and capital inflows. The volatility inherent in foreign
portfolio investment flows, which have become a significant source of capital
inflows, creates potential fragility in external stability.
On the domestic front, several concerns warrant attention. The substantial
liquidity injection from the CRR reduction may create inflationary pressures if
not carefully managed, particularly as the economy enters peak expenditure
periods including election-related spending. Real yields on government
securities remain negative, which could distort financial intermediation and
investment decisions. The security situation in certain parts of the country
continues to pose challenges to economic activity and agricultural
production, while oil sector headwinds including the volatility in oil production
and external demand limit the sector's contribution to growth.

The implementation of the recent tax and tariff regime, including the 15
percent import duty on oil products, presents uncertainty regarding real
sector adjustment and its ultimate inflationary impact. These structural
challenges suggest that underlying inflationary risks persist beneath the
surface of current headline disinflation.
Conclusion
The modest 50 basis point rate reduction reflects a nuanced assessment of
Nigeria's current economic position. The evidence of significant disinflation,
resilient economic growth driven by broad-based non-oil sector expansion,
improved external stability, and favorable global monetary conditions justifies
a cautious move toward less restrictive policy. However, the decision must be
weighed against the need to continue monitoring inflation developments,
particularly regarding the potential for renewed pressure from fiscal
spending, currency depreciation, or supply-side shocks. The MPC must remain
vigilant in balancing the need to support economic growth with the
overriding objective of achieving low and stable inflation, particularly given
the persistent underlying risks that could reverse recent disinflation gains.

8. MUHAMMAD SANI ABDULLAHI
My Vote
The November 2025 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) came
at a crucial time, as the cumulative effects of earlier policy actions have
begun to manifest in measurable improvements in key macroeconomic
indicators: Headline inflation decelerated further in October, its seventh
consecutive month of moderation; external reserves have strengthened
significantly; real output has expanded for three straight quarters; and the
exchange rates have remained broadly stable for over fourteen months.
Collectively,
these
developments
underscore
growing
traction
in
macroeconomic
fundamentals
and
justify
a
contained
data-driven
approach to policy calibration.
In the last four meetings, I submitted that the overarching objective of
safeguarding long-term macroeconomic stability remains paramount. At this
303rd meeting, however, the MPC is confronted with persistent excess
liquidity in the banking system, evidenced by substantial placements at the
standing deposit facility (SDF) window and compounded by the liquidity
impact from maturing OMO bills.
This excess liquidity risks diluting the effectiveness of our tight monetary policy
stance and undermines efforts to control inflation, requiring consideration of
enhanced OMO operations and improved monitoring of monetary
aggregates like M1 to preserve policy credibility. Accordingly, addressing the
persistent excess liquidity in the banking system should remain a priority.
Data and their underlying drivers have continued to be the key guiding
principles of my votes at all MPC meetings. Therefore, at this meeting, I will
also be guided strictly by data, and the need to consolidate the current
momentum to sustain credibility and foster growth-supportive measures that
will enhance growth performance for the remainder of 2025 and throughout
2026, given policy lags.
In the current context, my assessment is that additional tightening at this
stage could undermine the ongoing recovery by suppressing credit, raising
borrowing costs, and discouraging investment. With the decision at previous
meetings still gaining traction, maintaining the current stance allows the
economy to consolidate these gains. This decision is consistent with my
assessment of the current situation and strengthens confidence in the
direction, impact, and effectiveness of the ongoing policy measures.
Specifically, I voted to:
1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent.

2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +100/-
450 basis points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 45.0
per cent that of Merchant Banks at 16 per cent.
4. Retain a 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits.
5. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

My Considerations
Several of the constraints identified earlier in the year have largely abated, as
reflected in recent macro-financial indicators. Headline inflation has begun
to decelerate, exchange rate pressures have eased, and real output growth
as well as consumer and business sentiment remain on a positive trajectory.
The period also recorded upgrades in sovereign credit assessments by major
rating agencies and Nigeria’s removal from the FATF Grey List, further
strengthening the macroeconomic risk profile.
At 27%, the monetary policy rate (MPR) remains sufficiently elevated and has
directly impacted borrowing costs and yields during the year 2025. Analysis of
key macroeconomic indicators suggest that the economy is responding
gradually to previous tightening measures, and therefore no further action is
warranted even currently. Additionally, evidence from price, output, and
exchange-rate
developments
indicates
that
the
current
stance
is
appropriately restrictive. We have seen inflation slowing for the seventh
consecutive month, an indication that policy transmission is underway. This
generally pushed bond yields down as the real return increases. Albeit a,
stronger GDP growth could further improve these yields.
Inflation Trends and Dynamics
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) using the 2024 base
year, showed the notable progress around inflation dynamics with the
seventh consecutive month of observed decline in headline inflation.
Headline inflation moderated further in October 2025, declining to 16.05%
from 18.02% recorded in September 2025.
Other key underlying components of headline inflation have shown clear
disinflation momentum: for example, food inflation fell sharply to 13.12% from
16.87%,
reflecting
easing
supply
pressures
and
improving domestic
production conditions. Core inflation declined to 18.69% from 19.53%,
demonstrating that monetary tightening is softening demand-side pressures.
Consequently, these movements signal that the restrictive policy stance is

already curbing underlying inflation, and further tightening may risk overcorrecting and harming the recovery.
Both core and food inflation decreased in October 2025 to 18.69% and
13.12% from 19.53 and 16.87%, respectively. The observed continued decline
in headline inflation is attributable to significant decrease in energy prices
and deceleration in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages sector, which
accounts for 8.89% year-on-year contribution. The share of imported food in
the inflation basket also declined to 9.63% from 12.93% in September on
account of stability in the FX market.
Real output growth accelerated to 4.23% in Q2 2025, up from 3.13% in Q1. This
suggest that output conditions are improving and need to be supported by
our actions at this meeting. The forecast shows possible improvements for the
third and fourth quarter of 2025. This improvement shows strengthening
economic fundamentals, particularly in non-oil sectors.
The data from the foreign exchange market shows that exchange rate
pressures are moderating. The exchange rate has largely stabilized, reflecting
improved foreign exchange market liquidity and reduced speculative
activity. Developments in the foreign exchange market have also been
supported by the increase in gross external reserves to US$46.70 billion as of
14th November 2025 from US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025. This will
support the current account as it can support over 10 months of import for
goods and services.
This current trajectory of headline is consistent with the prevailing tight
monetary policy stance, thereby reinforcing the policy transmission
mechanism and providing a complementary response to other fiscal
measures.

Month-on-month, headline inflation rose to 0.93% in October 2025 from 0.72%
in September 2025, driven largely by food prices which increased to -0.37%
from -1.57% over the same period. Similarly, core inflation inched up to 1.33%
in October from 1.32% in September, indicating persistent underlying price
pressures in the non-food segment.

Findings from the Staff Household Expectation Survey (HES) in October 2025
indicate an improvement in consumer price expectations, with households
anticipating a continued deceleration in inflation over the next three to six
months. In tandem with the HES, results from the Business Expectations Survey
(BES)
showed
that
all
firms
expressed
optimism
regarding
the
macroeconomy. Current policies will continue to support these positive
business sentiments across key sectors. The October 2025 Purchasing

Managers’ Index (PMI) showed business activities remained in expansion as
PMI stood at 55.4 index points compared with 54.0 index points in
September.
Given the recent improvements in key macroeconomic indicators and the
need to reinforce these gains, policy credibility will remain a central priority.
Achieving this will require addressing the residual gaps in policy transmission
and coordination. Accordingly, enhanced and sustained alignment across
monetary, fiscal, and structural policy frameworks will be essential to
consolidate macroeconomic stability and anchor a durable disinflation
trajectory
Outlook
Real GDP growth is expected to remain positive and broad-based through
the remainder of 2025, underpinned by sustained expansion in the services
sector, the impact of ongoing fiscal reforms, expected recovery in oil
production and continuing structural shifts in the composition of aggregate
output.
The inflation outlook indicates a possible spike at the end of the year due to
December 2024 base effect. It is expected to moderate thereafter. However,
the outlook for the month-on-month headline inflation suggests further
moderation in headline as the effect of the previous MPC decisions continue
to permeate through the system with significant outcomes. Additionally,
stability has been sustained in the FX market, and the rebased GDP data
showed a positive growth for the second consecutive quarter at 4.32 per
cent in Q2 2025.

The fiscal outlook remains broadly stable, underpinned by moderate revenue
expansion during the review period. Nonetheless, measures aimed at
strengthening revenue mobilization, rebuilding fiscal buffers, and entrenching
a more resilient medium-term fiscal framework for the remainder of 2025 and
beyond require sustained consolidation.
The near-term outlook for the naira is broadly stable, despite heightened
global risks and its potential impact on key foreign exchange inflow channels.
The outlook is supported by favourable crude oil price dynamics and
sustained stability in the foreign exchange market.
Supported by adherence to regulatory best practices and a strengthened
risk management architecture, the Nigerian banking sector remains resilient.
Asset quality indicators continue to stabilize, and broader prudential metrics

remain within regulatory tolerance bands, underscoring the system’s overall
robustness.
Expected inflationary dynamics driven by increased seasonal or transitory
demand shocks associated with festive-season consumption, persistent
supply-side cost pass-through, and statistical base-effect distortions arising
from the recent CPI rebasing could mechanically elevate the measured
year-on-year inflation rate, thereby contributing to a likely uptick in Nigeria’s
headline inflation for December 2025 relative to underlying trend inflation.
Given that inflation indicators are improving, and the exchange rate is
relatively stable, the marginal benefits of additional tightening are limited
compared with the potential economic costs. Based on the trends in
inflation, output, and exchange rate stability, the current monetary policy
stance remains appropriate, and no further action should be taken at this
time. Keeping the MPR and other parameters at their current levels will sustain
disinflation trends, encourage growth and preserve financial market stability.

9. MURTALA SABO SAGAGI
Context
Nigeria's economic performance is slowly but gradually improving, especially
as it relates meeting inflation and growth projections. Current indicators
reveal a marked moderation in inflationary pressures, attributable to the
lagged effects of previously implemented aggressive monetary policy
measures and substantial decline in food prices. These outcomes underscore
the
effectiveness
of
earlier
policy
interventions
in
stabilizing
key
macroeconomic variables which are key to laying a solid foundation for
sustainable economic development. However, it is imperative to evaluate
the forward-looking implications within the context of the approaching
yuletide season and the 2026 pre-election year— periods historically
associated with substantial liquidity expansion. This assessment must carefully
balance the imperative for price stability and the urgent need to fast track
inclusive growth, which is fundamental to elevating living standards and
reducing the nation's persistent security challenges. Given that the full
transmission effects of prior monetary tightening measures are yet to
materialize, a calibrated policy easing could suffice. Such a strategic
adjustment would catalyse the requisite economic expansion while
maintaining macroeconomic stability, and it is this rationale that informs my
policy perspective at this critical moment.
Global and Domestic Economic Environment
Global Context
The ongoing wave of monetary policy easing across the global landscape
presents significant opportunities for emerging market economies like Nigeria
to attract much-needed capital inflows for developmental financing. As
central banks, particularly in advanced economies, transition from restrictive
to more accommodative monetary stances, global liquidity conditions are
improving, creating favorable condition for portfolio and foreign direct
investment flows into developing nations. To fully capitalize on these evolving
dynamics, Nigeria's domestic policy framework must be strategically aligned
to enhance the country's attractiveness as an investment destination,
thereby channeling these potential inflows toward critical infrastructure
development and productive sectors of the economy.
Nevertheless, there is a need for careful attention to the shifting geopolitical
and economic landscape, particularly the evolving balance of power in
international trade relations between the United States and its major trading
partners, alongside the rising tide of protectionist sentiment gaining traction
across various jurisdictions. These developments carry significant implications
for global trade flows, supply chain configurations, and cross-border

investment
patterns.
Notwithstanding
these
complexities,
the
earlier
monetary tightening measures across economies are expected to sustain
disinflation while supporting moderate output recovery—a pattern consistent
with Nigeria's recent macroeconomic performance. This convergence of
global monetary easing and gradual economic stabilization provides a
conducive environment for emerging markets to pursue growth-oriented
policies while maintaining prudent macroeconomic management.
Domestic Environment
On the domestic front, Nigeria's economy continues to exhibit encouraging
macroeconomic trends, with inflation demonstrating sustained moderation
while economic growth maintains positive momentum. Headline inflation has
declined for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 16.02 percent by the
end of October 2025, from higher levels in preceding months. This disinflation
has been broad-based, with food inflation moderating to 13.12 percent and
core inflation declining to 18.69 percent over the same period. These
favorable developments are primarily attributable to improved food supply
conditions, relative exchange rate stability, and increased availability of
essential household items. Notably, the disinflationary trajectory was
achieved without compromising economic expansion, as real GDP growth
accelerated to 4.23 percent in Q2 2025 from 3.13 percent in Q1 2025,
reflecting strengthening economic momentum across key sectors.
Further reinforcing the positive economic outlook, the Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) increased significantly to 56.4 points in November 2025—the
highest reading in five years and well above the 50-point threshold that
delineates expansion from contraction. This robust PMI performance signals
growing
business
confidence,
expanding
production capacity,
and
improved demand conditions across the private sector, collectively
underscoring the economy's progressive trajectory and the effectiveness of
recent policy interventions in fostering a conducive environment for
sustainable economic growth.
Additional positive macroeconomic developments include a substantial
strengthening of Nigeria's external reserve position, which rose from US$42.77
billion at the end of September 2025 to US$46.70 billion by November 14,
2025.
These developments have significantly bolstered both domestic and
international investor confidence in the Nigerian economy, as evidenced by
improvements in capital inflows. Gross capital importation increased from
US$5.089 billion in Q4 2024 to US$5.642 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting enhanced
investor sentiment and perceptions of reduced country risk. Furthermore,
Nigeria's removal from international watch lists and the growing recognition

of its improved macroeconomic fundamentals underscore the credibility
gains achieved through consistent policy implementation. Collectively, these
indicators demonstrate that structural reforms and improved economic
management are yielding measurable dividends in terms of external sector
resilience, market confidence, and the economy's integration into global
financial markets. However, more needs to be done in restoring public and
private sectors trust in governance. Equally, fiscal dominance and excessive
spending on non-critical projects must be addressed.
Major Economic Considerations
Considering the foregoing, the indicators collectively suggest that the
financial
ecosystem
can
absorb
a
less
restrictive
stance
without
compromising price or exchange rate stability, thereby facilitating a strategic
shift toward growth-oriented policies. Specific diagnosis of the developments
in the economy is as follows:
1. Domestic Macroeconomic Stability
The domestic environment presents evidence of stability and resilience,
weakening the rationale for continued aggressive tightening:
•
Sustained Disinflationary Trajectory: Headline inflation has shown
sustained moderation, declining for the seventh consecutive month to
16.02 percent. This trend indicates that earlier restrictive measures are
yielding results and that current price pressures are manageable, providing
scope for policy adjustment.
•
Accelerated Economic Growth Momentum: Real GDP growth
accelerated significantly by 4.23 percent in Q2 2025 from 3.13 percent in
Q1 2025. This strengthening economic momentum suggests the economy is
robust and capable of absorbing a modest stimulus to sustain or further
boost output expansion without immediately triggering a significant
inflationary spiral.
•
Robust Business Confidence: The PMI signals growing business
confidence and expanding production capacity, indicating that a mild
loosening would align with and reinforce the positive private sector
trajectory.
2. Enhanced External Sector Resilience
Strengthened external buffers and market stability will mitigate the risks (such
as capital flight and currency depreciation) traditionally associated with
monetary easing in emerging markets:
3. Strategic Global Alignment

The global economic environment provides a strategic opportunity for policy
alignment. The continuation of the wave of global disinflation supports a
moderate worldwide output recovery, creating a conducive environment for
emerging markets to pursue growth-oriented policies while maintaining
prudent macroeconomic management.
4. Limited Near-Term Headwinds: While medium-term challenges persist, the
immediate headwinds facing the economy at this meeting are not too
significant. Global conditions remain supportive, domestic supply-side factors
continue to improve, the harvest season should sustain food price
moderation, and exchange rate stability appears well-anchored. This
confluence of favorable factors creates an appropriate window for policy
recalibration.
5. Real Interest Rate Considerations: Even with headline inflation at 16.05 per
cent, the current MPR of 27.00 per cent implies a real interest rate exceeding
10.5 percentage points. This represents an extraordinarily restrictive stance
that, while appropriate during the acute phase of inflation, may now be
unnecessarily constraining economic activity without delivering additional
disinflationary benefits, given the lagged nature of monetary transmission.

My Vote
• Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): Reduction by 50 basis points to 26.50 per
cent
I therefore vote for a 50 basis point reduction in the MPR to spur growth.
• Standing Facilities Corridor: Adjustment to +50/-450 basis points
(Asymmetric structure)
• This decision is appropriate at this time as an asymmetric corridor in this
manner can help to tighten liquidity conditions significantly on the
deposit side, support exchange rate stability, and disciplined liquidity
management.
• Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): Maintained at 45.0 per cent for Deposit
Money Banks, 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75.0 per cent for
non-TSA public sector deposits.
• Liquidity Ratio: Maintained at 30.00 per cent
Recommendations
While
monetary
policy
has
responded
appropriately
to
evolving
macroeconomic conditions, the pathway to sustainable inclusive growth
requires
renewed
fiscal
discipline
and
growth-enhancing
policy
implementation to prevent the reversal of the achieved gains. Hence, there is
a need to pay closer attention to the following:

I. Renewed Effort on Food Security
Nigeria cannot achieve sustainable development while relying primarily on
subsistence agriculture and food imports. This requires substantial public
investment, private sector partnership, and policy consistency over multiple
years to transform agricultural productivity and value chains.
III. Enhanced Fiscal Discipline
With public debt reaching ₦152.39 trillion (Q2 2025) and squeezing fiscal
space, improved public financial management, strategic prioritization of
expenditures, and revenue mobilization are essential. The gains from
improved sovereign credit ratings and FATF delisting must be consolidated
through consistent fiscal prudence and transparent resource management.
V. Strengthen Policy Coordination
Without effective federal-state collaboration and policy consistency across
governmental levels, even an optimal monetary policy will deliver suboptimal
outcomes.
Enhanced
coordination
mechanisms
and
accountability
frameworks are needed to ensure policy alignment and implementation
effectiveness.

10. MUSTAPHA AKINKUNMI
1. Introduction
I reaffirm my strong support for maintaining the current Monetary Policy Rate
(MPR), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), and Liquidity Ratio, while adjusting the
Standing Facility Corridor to +50/-450 basis points around the MPR. This
position is grounded in the sustained decline in inflation following earlier
tightening measures and the continued convergence and stability in the
foreign exchange market.
Economic activity has also strengthened, with GDP growth in the second
quarter of 2025 outpacing money-supply expansion by nearly a factor of
three clear evidence of real productivity gains. Investor sentiment has
improved as well, reflecting supportive incentives and strengthening
macroeconomic fundamentals.
Taken together, these indicators highlight a favourable macroeconomic
environment shaped by effective monetary actions and disciplined
implementation. We therefore remain committed to safeguarding stability,
attracting durable investment, and advancing inclusive and lasting
improvements in welfare across Nigeria.
2. Economic and Financial Context
Nigeria’s
economy
continues
to
record
steady
and
encouraging
improvements, with the positive impact of earlier monetary policy actions
now becoming increasingly evident. In the second quarter of 2025, GDP
expanded by 4.23 percent, up from 3.13 percent in the first quarter. Such a
sharp quarter-to-quarter rise is uncommon in many developed and EMDE
economies, underscoring the growing strength and resilience of economic
activity across the country.
The 50-basis-point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) implemented
in September 2025 helped generate significant real productivity gains. In Q2
2025, these gains amounted to 2.73 percentage points, reflected in the gap
between GDP growth of 4.23 percent and money-supply growth of 1.5
percent. By comparison, Ghana and South Africa both of which eased
monetary policy by 350 and 25 basis points, respectively, bringing their policy
rates to 21.50 percent and 6.75 percent by November 2025 experienced only
modest improvements in output.
Nigeria’s robust economic performance, combined with a sustained decline
in inflation to 16.05 percent in October 2025, has yielded a markedly positive
real interest rate of 10.95 percent as of November 2025. This signals stronger

returns on investment and places Nigeria second in the region, just behind
Ghana’s real interest rate of 13.10 percent.
Improving domestic fundamentals are also reinforcing global economic
sentiment through rising business confidence. The Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI), a key measure of whether business activity is expanding or
contracting, climbed to 56.4 points in November 2025, the highest level in five
years. With any reading above 50 indicating expansion, this result reflects
broad-based momentum across agriculture, services, and industry.
Importantly, Nigeria’s PMI surpassed the global average of 54 points,
demonstrating that the country’s business environment is strengthening at a
faster pace than many economies worldwide.

3. Rationale for the Vote
Following the most recent MPC meeting, Nigeria’s economy has continued to
strengthen. Several key indicators now point to rising stability and growing
confidence among households, businesses, and investors.
The economy expanded by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, up
from 3.13 percent in the first quarter. This acceleration reflects broad-based
improvements across multiple sectors, signalling that business activity is
picking up, employment conditions are stabilising, and households are
gradually beginning to experience relief from financial pressures.
A major driver of this progress is the strengthening of the Naira and the
consistent decline in inflation. Headline inflation (year-on-year) fell for the
seventh consecutive month, reaching 16.05 percent in October 2025, down
from 18.02 percent in September. Food inflation also recorded a sharp
decline, dropping from 16.87 percent to 13.12 percent over the same period.
These improvements are helping to ease the cost of living through more
stable exchange rates, greater food supply, and lower petroleum prices—all
of which reduce pressure on household budgets.
Stability in the foreign exchange market has been another notable
achievement. Nigeria’s transparent, market-driven exchange-rate framework
has contributed to a more predictable and balanced FX environment. As of
28 November 2025, the Naira remained stable at an average of ₦1,445 per
US dollar, an appreciation of ₦13.79 compared with its October average. At
a time when many global currencies have weakened against the US dollar,
the resilience of the Naira reflects prudent monetary policy actions and
effective management of external reserves. With Nigeria’s recent credit

rating upgrade and rising investment inflows, the outlook for the Naira
remains positive.
Nigeria’s external position has also strengthened significantly. The country
recorded a US$5.28 billion current account surplus in the second quarter of
2025, up from US$2.85 billion in the first quarter. Gross external reserves
reached US$46.70 billion on 14 November 2025, the highest level in a
decade, representing a 9.19 percent increase from US$42.77 billion at the
end of September 2025. These reserves are sufficient to cover 10.3 months of
imports of goods and services, underscoring Nigeria’s improved financial
resilience and stronger capacity to withstand external shocks.

4. Policy Implications and Outlook
Taken together, stronger economic growth, easing inflation, a stable
exchange rate, a sound banking system, and rising investor confidence, the
overall outlook for Nigeria’s economy is highly favourable. Current trends
point to growth of 4.27 percent in 2025, exceeding the International
Monetary Fund’s projection of 3.90 percent. Continued exchange-rate
stability and increasing investment inflows are expected to support further
appreciation of the Naira and reduce inflation even further to an estimated
15.18 percent in November 2025. Achieving single-digit inflation remains the
central goal, as it will ease the cost of living for households and reinforce
long-term macroeconomic stability.
Nigeria is clearly moving along a stronger trajectory. With sustained policy
discipline and ongoing structural reforms, the country is well positioned to
achieve even greater economic progress in the months ahead.
5. Conclusion
Given the favourable and supportive macroeconomic environment, we
have resolved to maintain all existing monetary policy measures. We expect
further improvements in economic performance in the months ahead, driven
by seasonal harvests and the increased spending typically associated with
the festive period.
Nigeria’s recent progress demonstrates that the economy is firmly on a
positive path, and sustained macroeconomic stability will be essential to
preserving this momentum. To consolidate the gains recorded so far and
ensure continued disinflation, we remain committed to proactive policy
actions that address emerging risks. We are closely tracking price trends and
financial market conditions, particularly factors affecting investor confidence,

to ensure that growth remains inclusive and aligned with long-term
sustainable development goals.
Accordingly, I vote to:
•
Maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.00 percent
•
Adjust the Standing Facility Corridor around the MPR to +50/-450
basis points
•
Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45 percent for
commercial banks and 16 percent for merchant banks
•
Keep the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 percent

11. PHILIP IKEAZOR

All key indicators of macroeconomic stability remain aligned with the
trajectory of monetary policy, highlighting the effectiveness of the Bank’s
restrictive stance in curbing price pressures and anchoring inflation
expectations.
Despite ongoing efforts, fiscal challenges remain, as several key benchmarks
set by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), from crude oil output to
inflation, have not met expectations. The revenue outlook points to a
narrowing fiscal space which underscores the importance of maintaining a
prudent monetary stance, while strengthening policy coordination to
consolidate disinflation and safeguard macroeconomic stability. Against this
backdrop, I was mindful of a balanced growth path that aligns with
long‐term objectives of monetary policy.
I therefore voted to:

(1) Retain the MPR at 27.0 per cent.

(2) Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis
points.

(3) Retain the CRR for Commercial Banks at 45.0 per cent.

(4) Retain the CRR of Merchant Banks to 16.0 per cent.

(5) Retain the CRR for non-TSA public sector at 75.0 per cent.

(6) Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 per cent.


Developments in the Global and Domestic Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global growth in Q4 2025
will remain modest, broadly in line with Q3 performance. This reflects the
gradual adjustment of the world economy to a changing macroeconomic
environment, shaped by policy reforms and the easing of elevated tariffs.
Temporary factors that boosted activity earlier in the year, such as
front‐loaded demand, are fading, though growth projections for the final
quarter have been revised upward relative to Q1-2025.

The global growth is expected to moderate to 3.1 per cent in 2026, slightly
below the 2025 forecast. Emerging markets and developing economies are
projected to expand by 4.0 per cent, offsetting weaker growth of 1.5 per
cent in advanced economies. Global inflation is expected to continue its
downward trajectory but remain above target, with risks tilted upward.
Downside risks dominate the outlook, including prolonged uncertainty, rising
protectionism, labor supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial
market corrections, and institutional erosion.
In this context, central banks must sustain credible, transparent, and
sustainable
monetary
policies
to
restore
confidence.
Strengthened
coordination with fiscal authorities will be essential to rebuild buffers, support
trade diplomacy, and safeguard central bank independence for effective
policy signaling.
Domestically, the economy has demonstrated resilience, with the impact of
international commodity price swings and exchange rate‐driven inflationary
pressures beginning to ease. However, global uncertainty continues to weigh
on export performance, while supply chain disruptions have intensified
imported inflation and strained fiscal space.
Looking ahead, the sustained global growth, moderating inflation, progress in
tariff negotiations, improved financial conditions, and expanded fiscal
spending are expected to deliver positive spillover effects for Nigeria. A
sustained decline in global inflation would help reduce imported price
pressures, particularly in food and manufactured goods, thereby supporting
domestic price stability.
My Considerations
Nigeria’s economy has remained broadly stable, supported by consistent
monetary and fiscal reforms. Forecasts from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate continued growth as
inflationary and foreign exchange pressures ease. Real GDP is projected to
expand modestly in Q3 2025, rising by 0.40 percentage point relative to Q2.
This outlook is contingent on stronger crude oil production, enhanced refining
capacity, favorable oil market conditions, and sustained agricultural output
underpinned by reforms and improved security.
As the year draws to a close, macroeconomic indicators point to notable
progress. Declining inflation, a stable exchange rate, and consistent oversight
of the foreign exchange market reflect the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Inflation expectations have been anchored, market volatility reduced, and
the economy placed on a sustainable growth trajectory. Monthly core

inflation stabilized at 1.42 per cent between September and October 2025,
signaling the onset of a disinflationary phase.
Nonetheless, inflation dynamics remain mixed across rural and urban areas. In
rural regions, food and farm produce prices rose by 0.24 percentage point,
while core inflation, imported inflation, and energy costs declined in line with
policy objectives. Conversely, urban inflation has intensified, with most key
metrics, except passthrough, rising by at least 0.29 percentage point. This
divergence underscores the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal
measures to consolidate disinflation and drive inflation toward single digits.
Urban inflation presents a downside risk to growth, warranting a cautious but
proactive stance. I weighed the balance between holding rates and
adopting a more aggressive tightening. A moderate approach was chosen,
allowing price levels to adjust fully and avoiding reactive response to
temporary fluctuations. This stance also provides space for the new
contractionary tax policy to crystallize its impact.
CBN forecasts indicate inflation will continue its downward trajectory,
reaching 15.02 per cent (year-on-year) by December. However, the
adoption of December 2024 as the CPI base year introduces potential
distortions from seasonal effects and base effects. To mitigate unintended
signaling, it was necessary to maintain rates and leverage the policy corridor
to manage liquidity pressures associated with festive spending. Evidence
from prior experiments supports the adoption of an asymmetric corridor
between lending and deposit facilities, which is more effective in managing
liquidity than a symmetric corridor.
The foreign exchange market exhibited resilience, with NFEM and Bureau de
Change rates appreciating month-on-month by 2.11 and 1.36 per cent,
respectively. Improved market coordination, strengthened confidence, and
enhanced liquidity conditions underpinned this stability. However, the
negative premium of N4.00 per USD between NFEM and BDC rates highlights
demand pressures and distortions in signaling, necessitating a cautious
monetary stance. To safeguard macroeconomic stability and prevent
transmission of these pressures into consumer prices, I opted to hold the
policy rates.
Fiscal performance fell short of government targets, with crude oil production
and inflation outcomes below expectations. Public spending rose by 28.26
per cent year-on-year, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 38.17
per cent, nearing the Debt Management Office (DMO) threshold of 40 per
cent. Although still within the fiscal framework, narrowing fiscal space pose
risks to macroeconomic stability. These developments must be factored into

monetary policy, particularly given autonomous spending pressures linked to
security challenges.
In conclusion, the consolidation of monetary and fiscal policies has yielded
tangible benefits, notably in maintaining price stability and output growth.
However, output growth remains below the level required to firmly anchor the
economy’s fundamentals. I re-emphasized the need for fiscal authorities to
be vigilant and to continue addressing structural impediments which are
beyond the scope of monetary policy, prioritizing the mitigation of risks
associated with oil market disruptions, security challenges, elevated
infrastructure and energy costs, while accounting for global geopolitical
uncertainties to foster inclusive and resilient growth.

12. OLAYEMI CARDOSO
Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Chairman, Monetary Policy
Committee
The November meeting, our final for 2025, marks the close of an eventful
year. In pursuing our price stability mandate, faced with significant
headwinds and financial system shocks, we successfully navigated these
challenges and steered the economy towards relative stability. Inflation is
now firmly trending downwards on the back of a tight policy stance; the
exchange rate is significantly less volatile and has shown a degree of market
driven appreciation; our foreign reserves position continues to strengthen on
the back of market reforms that have resulted in structural shifts in the
balance of payments and improved capital flows; and, confidence remains
high across the board, spurring long term investment in critical sectors of the
economy.

I must commend the MPC members for staying the course to get us to this
point. Our reform story over the past two years is one that we need to
collectively communicate more effectively to reinforce confidence,
macroeconomic stability, and to signal that we have what it takes to
manage any headwinds in the horizon. Our gatherings have provided the
opportunity to review and analyse information and estimates from staff, ask
questions, and educate ourselves on the complex and dynamic variables
that impact the trajectory of the economy. Maintaining the credibility of the
MPC(and to an extent the Central Bank remains central to the delivery of
our mandate, hence it is important for our decisions to be seen to be
evidence-based and correct over the medium to long run.

We must bear in mind that there is a fair amount of time before our next
meeting and, given the sheer number of risks and uncertainties that clouds
our outlook, focus of members must be on developments we see on the
horizon over the next few months. We must endeavour to determine what
needs to be done to avoid surprises and lean on all the resources available
to us collectively to articulate how best to execute our decisions in a
collaborative manner to deliver the best possible outcomes.

On the global stage, an increasing number of bilateral trade deals have
brought relief from tariff wars rhetoric and resulted in the upward review in
output forecasts for both advanced and emerging economies, with growth
expected to remain strong going into 2026. Moderating supply chain
disruptions and easing geopolitical tensions has led to a lower inflation
outlook, with prices in advanced economies generally expected to soften,
except for the United States where heightened protectionism and policy

uncertainty could sustain inflationary pressures. Commodity prices are
forecast to remain soft, with a bearish oil market expected to persist due to
subdued demand coming out of large consumption markets in Asia, and
increased supply. Across emerging and developing economies(EMDEs),
inflation is projected to trend lower, reflecting an improved policy
environment but vulnerabilities to exchange rate and commodity price
volatility persist.

On the domestic front, the economy remains firmly on the path of recovery.
Real GDP growth sustained its momentum with continued improvements in
the oil and non-oil sector, and 4.23% outturn in Q2 2025 is expected to remain
strong with a full year forecast of 4.27%. Inflation declined to 16.05% in
October, down from 18.02% in the preceding month and 8.43 percentage
points below the 24.48% recorded in January 2025. The sustained
deceleration is evident across all measures - headline, food, and core, with
momentum accelerating in recent months. Contributory factors include the
pass-through of low volatility in the foreign exchange market, continued
decline in food prices, and well anchored expectations given the relative
strength of the exchange rate. Research estimates indicate that our tight
policy stance has accounted for up to 10 percentage points of the decline in
headline inflation, providing encouraging counterfactual evidence on the
effectiveness of monetary policy in the current environment and a reminder
of the need to consistently take bold actions.

Business and household sentiments reflect an increasingly optimistic outlook
of the macroeconomy and coupled with increased investor confidence, this
should
continue
to
foster
the
stability
of
the
economy.
Stability
notwithstanding, the data before us firmly indicates the persistence of
heightened risks to the near term economic outlook. For example, Nigeria’s
recent designation as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ by the US
administration, though grounded in security considerations, could carry
economic spillovers that warrant close monitoring.

The local political cycle also makes 2026 pivotal in the economic landscape,
with empirical studies showing undeniable links between pre-election fiscal
expansion and inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and
external sector vulnerabilities.

Challenges also persist on the fiscal side of the economy and despite the
ongoing best and well intended efforts to reform, it is well acknowledged that
these often take time to materialise, more so given the extent of changes

that needed to be implemented. New challenges also creep in along the
way, with upcoming elections now playing a critical role in our outlook.

It is therefore important that monetary policy must remain alert and
exceptionally proactive in managing the resultant fragility that these risks
pose to the financial system, and constantly evaluate what is required for
policy implementation to remain effective. Our triggers and early warning
signals will be fine tuned and continuously recalibrated to enhance our
capability to take adequate policy actions on issues that might threaten our
stable course. Our ability to respond early is a key determinant of the
outcomes we will deliver and the extent to which these are sustainable over
time. It must however be noted that the extent to which monetary policy
alone can deliver sustainable economic gains is limited, and our focus must
also be on how we can support the improvement of the fundamentals of the
economy across board.

The extensive deliberations at this meeting present an overwhelming case for
maintaining a tight monetary stance. I am, therefore, firmly convinced that
holding policy rates at current levels best supports our disinflationary progress.
In addition to the uncertainties to the outlook earlier mentioned, excess
liquidity in the system remains a major risk to sustaining price stability, and we
need to ensure policy remains tight and well implemented to forestall any
reversal in the disinflationary trend that has now been established.

In my view, holding is a clear signal of reinforcing stability and
acknowledgement that the current policy stance is having the desired
effect. The effective anchoring of overnight market rates within the standing
facilities corridor further demonstrates the improved transmission of our policy
stance to the wholesale market. This is a welcome development and gives us
some room to further adjust the corridor to reflect emergent liquidity
conditions and the sustained price action witnessed in the benchmark
government securities market. The proposed asymmetric adjustment of the
corridor – widening the floor while keeping the ceiling tight – aims to absorb
persistent excess liquidity without compromising control over short-term rates.

Accordingly, I support the following policy actions:

1. Maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +50/-450
basis points.
3. Maintain the CRR for commercial banks at 45 per cent and that of
merchant banks at 16 per cent, and retain a 75 per cent CRR on nonTSA public sector deposits.

4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

OLAYEMI CARDOSO
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
November 2025