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BANK OF GHANA
MONETARY POLICY REPORT


November 2025
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The Monetary Policy Report highlights the economic and financial sector assessments that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
considered prior to the policy decision during the 126th meetings held on November 24-26, 2025.
Monetary Policy Objective in Ghana
The primary objective of the Bank of Ghana is to ensure stability in the general level of prices which has been defined as maintaining
inflation over the medium term, within a band of 8± 2 percent. Without limiting the primary objective, the Bank is also expected to
support the general economic policy of the government, promote economic growth and development, foster the effective and efficient
operation of the banking and credit system; and contribute to the promotion and maintenance of financial stability.

Monetary Policy Strategy
To achieve the objective of price stability, Bank of Ghana has been granted operational independence to use whichever policy tools
it sees appropriate to stabilise inflation around the target band. The Bank of Ghana’s framework for conducting monetary policy is
Inflation Targeting (IT), in which the central bank uses the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) as the primary policy tool to set the
monetary policy stance and anchor inflation expectations in the economy.

The MPC Process
The MPC is a statutorily constituted body established by the Bank of Ghana (Amendment) Act, Act 2016 (Act 918) to formulate
monetary policy. The MPC consists of seven members – five from the Bank of Ghana (including the Governor who is the Chairman)
and two external members appointed by the Board of the Bank. The MPC meeting dates are determined at the beginning of each
year. The MPC meets bi-monthly to assess economic conditions and risks to the inflation outlook, after which a policy decision is
made on positioning the MPR. Each decision signals a monetary policy stance of tightening (increase), easing (decrease) or no
change (stay put). The policy decision is arrived at by consensus with each member stating reasons underlying a preferred MPR
decision. Subsequently, the decision is announced at a press conference held after each MPC meeting and a press release issued to
financial markets and the public.

©Research Department, Bank of Ghana MPC Report – December 2025
www.bog.gov.gh


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Table of Contents


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Overview of Key Considerations of the Committee

Global growth held steady, but the outlook remains fragile amid persistent uncertainty. Global inflation continued
to ease generally, however, progress towards inflation targets varied across regions. Financial conditions have eased,
supported by corporate valuations and falling volatility. In the local FX market, the cedi recovered in October, supported
by Bank of Ghana FX intermediation.

On the domestic front, Ghana's economy continued to demonstrate robust growth in the second half of 2025. The
latest provisional data from the Ghana Statistical Service showed that the Monthly Indicator for Economic Growth
(MIEG) for August 2025 grew by 5.1 percent, compared to a growth of 4.9 percent in August 2024. The latest high
frequency real sector indicators pointed to a sustained pickup in economic activity in September 2025. Consumer and
business confidence also remained strong, in line with improving macroeconomic conditions.

Headline inflation continued its downward trend, with broad-based declines across both food and non-food
categories. This disinflation has been driven primarily by tight monetary policy, ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts
and strong recovery of the cedi. Staff projections suggest a strong likelihood that inflation will continue easing into the
fourth quarter of 2025.

The external sector maintained a strong performance in the first nine months of 2025. The current account posted
a large surplus, fueled by a surge in the trade surplus and high private transfers, leading to a notable increase in gross
international reserves.

The cedi recovered sharply in October 2025. This was in spite of high demand pressures and was mainly due to the
new FX operations framework, most notably the FX intermediation introduced in October. In the outlook, the cedi is
expected to remain stable in the near term, supported by the implementation of the new FX operations framework, strong
reserve build-up, positive sentiment from the recent budget statement and a positive credit rating sentiment.

Monetary developments in October 2025 continued to reflect a tight monetary policy stance and active liquidity
management. Broad money (M2+) and reserve money growth moderated sharply on account of contracting Net
Domestic Assets and slower accumulation of Net Foreign Assets, primarily due to reduced net claims on Government,
reduced claims on DMBs, and intensified sterilisation operations. Nominal credit growth remained muted but real private
sector credit posted a modest expansion. On the money market, short-term interest rates declined significantly on a yearon-year basis in line with the reduction in policy rates and improved market liquidity, while medium- to long-term yields
remained stable. The GSE Composite Index recorded notable gains while market capitalization increased.

The banking sector continued to demonstrate resilience, as assets growth remained strong. However, growth in
the banking industry assets in October 2025 moderated mainly on the back of appreciation of the Ghana cedi. Financial
Soundness Indicators (FSIs), except for those for core liquidity, recorded an improvement in October 2025 relative to
the same period in 2024. Profitability remains strong and solvency has improved significantly. However, liquidity in the
industry declined. The industry’s Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratio improved though asset quality remained a
challenge. In the outlook, the sector’s performance would depend on banks’ adherence to recapitalisation plans and full
implementation of the new NPL guidelines introduced by Bank of Ghana. Meanwhile, the macro-prudential risk
assessment has indicated that systemic risks have generally moderated.

Taking into account the favourable prospects for inflation, the high real interest rates, and the need to drive up
private sector credit to support non-oil growth, the MPC, by a majority decision, voted to ease the policy rate by 350
basis points.


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1. Global Economic Developments

1.0 Highlights
Global growth held steady despite major policy shifts, but the outlook remains fragile, and risks are tilted to the
downside. Global headline inflation continues to ease gradually, though progress remains uneven across regions.
Financial conditions have eased, supported by corporate valuations and falling volatility. In the local FX market, the
cedi recovered in October, supported by BoG FX intermediation.

1.1 Global Growth Developments
Global trade developments continue to shape the growth outlook in the near term. Despite major trade policy shifts and
increased uncertainty, growth downgrades were modest. This reflects the effect of trade deals negotiated by the U.S.
with various countries, multiple exemptions by the U.S. and the fact that most countries refrained from retaliation. Also,
the private sector proved agile, front-loading imports and speedily re-routing supply chains. The easing of financial
conditions, a weaker dollar and fiscal stimulus in some countries (e.g., China, the Euro Area) as well as surging artificial
intelligence (AI) investments supported global activity. Reflecting these conditions, the IMF now projects global growth
at 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. The outlook, however, remains fragile, and risks are tilted to the downside
despite multiple offsetting drivers. On the downside, the still volatile global trade environment could disrupt supply
chains, further dampen exports, and weigh on consumption and investment. Excessively optimistic growth expectations
about AI could be revised considering incoming data from early adopters which could trigger market corrections. Also,
the geopolitical environment remains fragile with the potential for more negative supply disruptions. Furthermore, a
deterioration in financial market sentiment could lead to tighter financing conditions, greater risk aversion, and weaker
growth. On the upside, breakthroughs in trade negotiations could boost private spending and support growth.

Table 1.1: Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections


1.2 Global Price Developments
Global headline inflation continues to ease gradually, though progress remains uneven across regions. The decline in
headline inflation partly reflects subdued oil prices due to weak global demand, and an uptick in production from OPEC+
countries. On the demand side, oil prices were negatively affected by subdued global oil consumption, reflecting trade
tensions. On the supply side, successive OPEC+ production increases since April, which continued into early October,


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weighed on oil prices, supported by the increase in U.S. crude inventories. The dynamics of headline inflation also
reflect adjustments in global food prices with the FAO Food Price Index down by 1.6 percent in October. However, core
inflation remained sticky in both advanced and emerging market economies, reflecting persistent services inflation.
Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations remained stable around 2 percent. Looking ahead, IMF estimates that
global headline inflation is projected to decline from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 3.7 percent in 2026. Oil prices are expected
to remain subdued due to weak global demand and an uptick in production. An expected slowdown in global growth
and the loosening labour markets will support the disinflation process. Even though core inflation remains sticky, it is
expected to decline amid moderating wages. Also, long-term inflation expectations have remained well anchored around
2 percent.

However, importers may be forced to pass on the effects of higher tariffs to consumers. Again, escalating geopolitics
could push energy prices upwards and reverse the disinflation process. Also, the attacks against Russia’s oil
infrastructure and U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers may be an upside risk to the oil price. Additionally,
worsening climate events could also push prices up.

Figure 1.1: Headline Inflation in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

Source: Bank of Gana, Trading Economics


1.3 Global Financial Market Developments
Financial conditions have eased since April 2025, supported by corporate valuations and falling volatility. Central banks
are leaning more towards an accommodative stance, thus supporting the easing of financial conditions. Also, long-term
bond yields continue to ease amid declining policy rates with equity markets remaining strong amid increased investor
appetite and an easing monetary policy stance. The strength of the equity markets is reflected in the rebound of equity
flows to EMDEs by US$12.9 billion in October 2025.

In the outlook, financial conditions will ease in the near term, reflecting declining policy rates and long-term bond yields
and strong equity markets. The dollar weakness has also provided some monetary policy space for EMDEs. Nonetheless,
interest rate decisions will be based on central banks’ assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in
light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of
monetary policy transmission.


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Table 1.2: Monetary Policy Stance of Selected Central Banks

Source: Growth Rate (World Bank); Debt/GDP (IMF) Policy Rates (Trading Economics)
Note: The blue colour indicates unchanged monetary policy rate; the real rate is the policy rate minus the ex-post inflation rate.

1.4 Currency Markets
The U.S. dollar index declined amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty and the Fed’s policy rate cuts. However, the Fed’s
change in tone more recently has put some upward pressure on the dollar in November 2025. The sustained weakness
of the dollar eased pressures on some EMDE currencies.

In the domestic FX market, the cedi appreciated sharply in the month of October. The strong recovery in October despite
the demand pressures was mainly due to the new FX operations framework. Amongst the three pillars of the policy
framework, FX intermediation introduced in October was the main driver of the recovery in the month. Also, the dollar
weakness supported the cedi. In the outlook, the cedi is expected to remain stable in the near term, supported by the
implementation of the new FX operations framework, strong reserve build-up, positive sentiment from the recent budget
statement and a positive credit rating sentiment. However, the Fed’s change in tone has put some upward pressure on
the dollar, with implications for the cedi.

In the interbank market, the cedi appreciated by 34.86 percent, 28.67 percent and 21.07 percent against the dollar, pound
and euro, respectively, on a year-to-date basis. This is against a depreciation of 27.12 percent, 27.83 percent and 25.84
percent against the dollar, pound and euro, respectively during the same period in 2024. However, the cedi was more
volatile during the first 230 transaction days in 2025 compared to other years.

The cedi appreciated by 18.98 percent and 25.16 percent, respectively, in nominal trade weighted terms and nominal
forex transaction weighted terms on a year-to-date basis in October 2025. This is against a depreciation of 35.86 percent
and 37.10 percent in nominal trade weighted terms and nominal foreign exchange transaction weighted terms
respectively over the same period in 2024.

In real bilateral terms, the cedi appreciated by 26.19 percent, 22.38 percent and 18.52 percent against the dollar, pound
and euro, respectively, on a year-to-date basis in October 2025. Comparatively, the cedi experienced a depreciation in
real terms by 19.07 percent, 19.69 percent and 16.82 percent, respectively, against the dollar, pound and the euro over
the same period in 2024.


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Table 1.3: Interbank Exchange Rates

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table 1.4: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table 1.5: Real Bilateral Exchange Rate

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations
RER Index (Jan.2021=100) MONTHLY CHANGE (Index) Year-to-Date (%)
Month
EUR
GBP
USD
EUR
GBP
USD
EUR
GBP
USD

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24


Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25


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Table 1.6 below shows the real effective exchange rate movements of the cedi against the three major currencies (i.e.,
the U.S. dollar, the euro and the pound). The cedi appreciated by 19.94 percent and 25.55 percent, respectively, in real
trade weighted terms and real forex transaction weighted terms on year-to-date basis in October 2025. This compared
with depreciations of 17.37 percent and 18.91 percent, respectively, in real trade weighted terms and forex transaction
weighted terms for the same period in 2024.

Table 1.6: Real Effective Exchange Rate for Major Trade Partners

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

1.5 Global Economic Outlook and Risks
Global growth held steady despite major policy shifts. Global headline inflation continues to ease gradually. Financial
conditions have eased, supported by corporate valuations and falling volatility. Reflecting the above conditions, risks
from the external sector has improved. Steady global growth may continue to support Ghana’s exports. The ongoing
disinflation in advanced economies may decrease imported inflation, ease policy rates, especially in advanced
economies, and potentially trigger a search for higher yields in EMDEs, including Ghana. The weakness in the dollar
may sustain the appreciation of the cedi. However, the recent change in tone by the Fed may lead to a stronger dollar
and put pressure on the cedi.


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2. External Sector Developments

2.0 Highlights
The external sector improved markedly in the first nine months of the year, posting a strong current account surplus
fueled by a surge in the trade surplus and high private transfers. The robust current account surplus, along with other
capital inflows, contributed to a notable increase in gross international reserves.


2.1 Commodity Price Trends
On the international commodities market, prices of Ghana’s major export commodities showed mixed trends. Cocoa
futures averaged $8,884.00 per tonne in the year up to September 2025, representing a 17.6 percent increase from the
$7,552.00 per tonne recorded in the same period in 2024. The rise was mainly due to adverse weather conditions that
affected supply from key producers such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Compared with the same period last year, cocoa
prices declined by 5.0 percent, mainly because of weak demand from chocolate manufacturers.

Conversely, crude oil prices declined, averaging US$70.00 per barrel from January to September 2025, compared to
US$82.00 per barrel during the same period last year. Compared to a year earlier, prices fell by 7.0 percent. Prices
dropped due to weak demand from China and Europe, as well as excess supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC members.

Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date average of US$3,201.00 per fine ounce in September 2025,
representing an increase of about 39.5 percent over the $US$2,295.00 per fine ounce recorded during the same period
in 2024. Compared to a year ago, gold prices jumped 42.6 percent from US$2,568.81 in September 2024. The rise in
gold prices was driven by U.S. Fed interest rate cuts, expectations of further monetary easing, and sustained safe-haven
demand amid heightened global political uncertainty.


Source: Reuters


Source: Reuters


Source: Reuters


Source: BoG Staff Compilations


Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Figure 2.1: International Cocoa Prices
(US$/Metric Tonne)

Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Figure 2.2: International Brent Crude Oil Prices
(US$/Barrel)

Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Figure 2.3: International Gold Prices (US$/Fine Ounce)

Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
May-24
Sep-24
Jan-25
May-25
Sep-25
Figure 2.4: Commodities Price Index


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2.1.1 Commodity Price Index
The overall weighted average price index of Ghana's three major export commodities – cocoa, gold, and crude oil –
increased in September 2025 to 233.41 from 226.99 in the previous month, a rise of 2.8 percent. The increase was driven
by gains in both the gold and crude oil sub-indices, which rose by 9.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, while the
cocoa sub-index declined by 10.0 percent during the same period. Year-to-date, the composite commodity price index
has increased by 5.8 percent, mainly due to the significant 38.7 percent jump in the gold price sub-index.

2.2 Trade Balance
The trade balance for the first nine months of the year showed a notable surplus of US$7.45 billion, significantly higher
than the US$2.48 billion recorded during the same period in 2024. The increased trade surplus was driven by a larger
rise in exports compared to imports.

The value of exports increased to US$20.51 billion as of September 2025 from US$13.98 billion during the same period
in 2024, mainly driven by gold and cocoa exports. Gold exports rose by 71.4 percent to US$13.26 billion from US$7.74
billion in September 2024, fueled by increases in both volume and price. The volume of gold exports grew by 12.1
percent to 4.27 million fine ounces, while the average gold price jumped by 42.0 percent to US$3,107.84 per fine ounce
in September 2025 compared to US$2,189.10 in September 2024, largely due to global economic uncertainty and
geopolitical tensions. Receipts from cocoa exports, comprising beans and products, surged to US$2.56 billion during
the first nine months of 2025, up from US$989.91 million in the same period in 2024, driven by higher export volumes
and prices.

Crude oil exports, however, dropped by 35.9 percent to US$1.95 billion in the first nine months of the year due to
decreased export volumes and a fall in prices. The volume of crude oil exports fell by 26.3 percent to 27.52 million
barrels as of September 2025, from 37.32 million barrels during the same period last year. The average price of crude
oil for the period declined by 13.1 percent to US$71.01 per barrel from US$81.66 per barrel in September 2024. Other
exports, including non-traditional exports, increased by 24.5 percent to US$2.74 billion from US$2.20 billion during the
same review period.

Table 2.1: Trade Balance (US$ million)

Source: Bank of Ghana
Table 1

Abs Y/Y
Rel Y/Y
Jan - Sept
Jan - Sept
Jan - Sept
Chg
Chg
Trade Balance

Trade Bal (% GDP)
2.0
3.0
8.5
Total Exports

Gold ( $'M)

Volume (fine ounces)

Unit Price ($/fine ounce)

Cocoa Beans ( $'M)

Volume (tonnes)

Unit Price ($/tonne)

Cocoa Products ( $'M)

Volume (tonnes)

Unit Price ($/tonne)

Crude Oil ( $'M)

Volume (barrels)

Unit Price ($/bbl)

Other Exports

o/w: Non-Tradional Exports

Total Import

Non-Oil

Oil and Gas

of which: Products

Gas

Crude Oil


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Total imports rose by 13.6 percent to US$13.06 billion during the first nine months of 2025, up from US$11.50 billion
in the corresponding period of 2024, due to increases in both oil and non-oil imports. Oil imports increased by 11.5
percent to US$3.89 billion as of September 2025 from US$3.48 billion in the same period 2024, as did non-oil imports,
which increased to US$9.18 billion from US$8.01 billion during the same reference period.

2.3 Current Account
The current account posted a substantial surplus of US$3.83 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a sharp rise over
US$553.57 million recorded during the same period in 2024. The higher current account surplus was driven by a strong
improvement in the trade surplus. Net payments for services, however, increased to US$4.00 billion from US$1.96
billion in the same period of 2024, largely due to freight and insurance, an uptick in trade-related services, financial
services and travel. Income payments to non-residents totalled US$3.88 billion on a net basis, driven by private sector
payments and interest payments on external debt. Private remittance flows increased by 11.4 percent to US$6.00 billion
in the first nine months of 2025 from US$5.37 billion during the same period in 2024.


2.4 Capital and Financial Accounts
The capital account recorded net transfers of US$70.9 million, reflecting mainly project grants. The total of surpluses in
the current and capital accounts reached US$3.90 billion, placing the country in a net lending position with the rest of
the world. Consequently, there was net acquisition of financial assets in the financial account totalling US$3.76 billion,
significantly higher than the US$1.06 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. Of this, other investments reached
US$3.00 billion, mainly due to increased currency and deposits in the nostro accounts of commercial banks, as well as
trade credit and advances. The economy attracted net direct investments of US$1.47 billion in September 2025, up from
US$1.27 billion in the same period in 2024, while net portfolio inflows were US$121.5 million, down from US$224.8
million during the same review period. Reserve assets of the Bank of Ghana also increased significantly to US$1.84
billion from US$983.6 million.

2.5 International Reserves
By the end of September 2025, Gross International Reserves (GIR) stood at US$11.60 billion, enough to cover 4.9
months of import of goods and services. This compares to the end-December 2024 GIR of US$9.11 billion (equivalent
to 4.1 months of imports cover). The program definition of Net International Reserves (NIR) recorded a build-up of
US$1.69 billion to US$3.65 billion in September 2025, exceeding the target buildup of US$1.45 billion for December
2025.

2.6 External Sector Outlook
Looking ahead, Ghana’s external sector is expected to maintain a resilient performance, despite global pressures. Gold
prices are projected to stay steady, supported by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, as well as
concerns about the rising U.S. inflation and central bank demand. Cocoa prices are likely to trend lower due to expected
increased output from major growers and weak demand. Oil prices may stay mostly stable, despite an expected increase
in supply, which could be moderated by geopolitical tensions, potentially causing short-term fluctuations. External sector
indicators for Ghana are expected to remain firm through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.


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3. Real Sector Developments

3.0 Highlights
Ghana's economy continued to demonstrate robust growth in the second half of 2025. This was supported by the latest
high frequency real sector indicators, which point to a sustained pickup in economic activity in September 2025.
Consumer and business confidence also remained strong, in line with improving macroeconomic conditions.

3.1 Economic Growth
The latest provisional data from the Ghana Statistical Service showed that the Monthly Indicator for Economic Growth
(MIEG) for August 2025 grew by 5.1 percent compared to a growth of 4.9 percent in August 2024. This expansion was
underpinned by strong performance in the services and the agriculture sectors, whereas the industrial sector experienced
a contraction. Services grew by 9.6 percent between August 2024 to August 2025, primarily supported by growth in
ICT, trade and transport subsectors. Agriculture rose by 7.4 percent, mainly due to increased crop production and fish
catch. Industry, however, contracted by 1.8 percent as higher gold production was outweighed by a decline in petroleum
and gas output.

3.2 Trends in Real Sector Indicators

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, proxied by domestic VAT collections and retail sales, posted a positive performance in September
2025, compared with the corresponding period in 2024. Domestic VAT collections increased by 17.7 percent on a yearon-year basis to GH¢1,635.74 million, from GH¢1,390.29 million. Cumulatively, total domestic VAT for the first three
quarters of 2025 went up by 24.5 percent to GH¢15,344.62 million compared with GH¢12,325.11 million for the
corresponding period of last year.

Retail sales increased marginally by 2.7 percent (year-on-year) to GH¢244.73 million in September 2025, up from the
GH¢238.32 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2024. Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, retail sales
improved marginally by 1.4 percent in September 2025 from GH¢241.47 million in the preceding month. In cumulative
terms, retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025 went up by 22.4 percent.

Manufacturing Activities
Activities in the manufacturing sub-sector, gauged by trends in the collection of direct taxes and private sector workers’
contributions to the Social Security and National Insurance Trust (SSNIT) Pension Scheme (Tier-1), improved in
September 2025. Total direct taxes collected increased by 18.4 percent (year-on-year) to GH¢9,869.92 million in
September 2025, relative to GH¢8,335.34 million recorded in a similar period in 2024. Cumulatively, total direct taxes
collected for the first three quarters of 2025 went up by 25.5 percent to GH¢62,879.09 million, from GH¢50,107.90
million for the same period in 2024. In terms of contributions of the various sub-tax categories, corporate tax accounted
for 63.7 percent, income tax (PAYE and self-employed) accounted for 22.8 percent, while “other tax sources”
contributed 13.5 percent.

Total private sector workers’ contribution to the SSNIT Pension Scheme (Tier-1) increased by 14.5 percent in year-onyear terms to GH¢527.17 million in September 2025, from GH¢460.34 million collected during the corresponding period
in 2024. Cumulatively, for the first three quarters of 2025, the contribution grew by 22.3 percent to GH¢4,561.01 million,
relative to GH¢3,728.67 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2024.


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Construction Sector Activities
Activity in the construction sub-sector, proxied by the volume of cement sales, declined by 4.1 percent (year-on-year)
in September 2025 to 210,826.90 tonnes, down from 219,917.77 tonnes recorded a year ago. On a month-on-month
basis, total cement sales also decreased by 4.1 percent in September 2025, compared with the 219,832.35 tonnes recorded
in August 2025. Cumulatively, cement sales for the first three quarters of 2025 remained largely unchanged at
2,075,072.44 tonnes compared to 2,061,663.21 tonnes for the same period of 2024. The relative decline in total cement
sales, year-on-year, was due to a moderation in construction activities during the review period.

Vehicle Registration
Transport sector activities, gauged by new vehicle registrations by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Authority (DVLA),
improved by 45.5 percent to 18,209 in September 2025, from 12,511 vehicles registered during the corresponding period
of 2024. Cumulatively, vehicles registered by the DVLA within the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 36.3 percent
to 185,455 from 136,112 recorded a year ago.

Industrial Consumption of Electricity
Industrial consumption of electricity improved by 15.4 percent in September 2025 to 316.36 gigawatts, as against 274.26
gigawatts recorded for the corresponding period in 2024. In cumulative terms, electricity consumed by industries for the
first three quarters of 2025 increased by 10.3 percent to 2,808.40 gigawatts, from 2,546.28 gigawatts for the
corresponding period a year ago.

Passenger Arrivals
Passenger arrivals declined marginally by 1.3 percent in year-on-year terms to 102,078 in September 2025, down from
103,387 arrivals recorded a year ago. On a month-on-month basis, passenger arrivals decreased by 10.5 percent.
Cumulatively, for the first three quarters of 2025, passenger arrivals remained largely unchanged at 938,210 arrivals
recorded at the international airport and the land borders, compared with 941,692 for the corresponding period in 2024.

Ports and Harbours Activity
International trade at the country’s two main harbours (Tema and Takoradi), as measured by laden container traffic for
inbound and outbound containers, improved during the period under review. Total container traffic increased by 20.6
percent, year-on-year, to 73,648 in September 2025, up from 61,093 for a similar period in 2024. In cumulative terms,
total container traffic for the first three quarters of 2025 went up by 23.2 percent to 647,536 compared with 525,623 for
the corresponding period of last year.

3.3 Labour Market Activity

Private Sector Pension Contributors
Total number of private sector SSNIT contributors, which partially gauges employment conditions, improved by 3.7
percent to 1,089,332 in September 2025, compared with 1,050,833 for the same period in 2024. On a month-on-month
basis, total number of private sector SSNIT contributors remained largely unchanged from the 1,093,922 individuals
recorded in August 2025.

Advertised Jobs
The number of jobs advertised in selected print1 and online2 media, which partially gauges labour demand in the
economy, increased in October 2025 relative to what was observed in the corresponding period a year ago. In total,
3,248 job adverts were recorded, as compared with 2,849 for the same period in 2024, indicating an improvement of

1 The Daily Graphic newspaper was used to represent print media because it is the most widely circulated daily in Ghana.
2 These are job adverts posted on the websites of the 10 main online job advertising/employment companies in Ghana.


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14.0 percent (year-on-year). Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, the number of job vacancies in October 2025
improved by 14.7 percent from the 2,831 jobs advertised in September 2025. Cumulatively, for the first ten months of
2025, the total number of advertised jobs remained largely unchanged at 30,185, compared to 30,218 recorded during
the corresponding period in 2024.

3.4 Composite Index of Economic Activity
The Bank’s real Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) recorded a strong annual growth of 9.6 percent in
September 2025, compared to a growth of 2.9 percent for the corresponding period of 2024. Industrial production,
international trade activities, commercial banks’ credit to the private sector and consumption of goods and services
contributed to the improvement in economic activity during the period.

3.5 Consumer and Business Surveys
The latest confidence surveys conducted in October 2025 reflected continued optimism about current and future
economic conditions. Consumer confidence remained strong, notwithstanding a slight moderation. The Consumer
Confidence Index eased to 115.3 in October 2025 from 116.9 in August 2025. The Business Confidence Index remained
broadly unchanged at 106.5 from 107.5 in the same comparative period. Firms’ concerns about volatility of the local
currency and higher input costs were largely offset by the realisation of short-term targets as well as optimism about
company, industry and growth prospects. Results from the confidence surveys were aligned with the observed trend in
Ghana’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which signalled a marginal improvement in business conditions in October
2025. The PMI rose to 50.3 in October 2025 from 49.8 in August 2025, mainly due to an uptick in new orders.


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Figure 3.1a: High Frequency Economic Indicators

Panel 1


Sources: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Retail sales inched up while domestic VAT collections declined in September
2025 compared to August 2025...
...Labour hiring conditions, proxied by the number of private sector
workers contributing to SSNIT, remained largely unchanged...
...Labour market conditions softened in September 2025 relative to August
2025...
...Construction activities, proxied by cement sales, decreased in
September 2025 compared to August 2025...
...Port activity decreased in September 2025 compared to the previous
month...
...Tourist arrivals declined in September 2025 compared to August
2025...

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Cement Sales

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Thousands
Port Activity (Container Traffic)

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Thousands
Tourist Arrivals

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Thousands
Number of Private Sector Contributors to SSNIT
Thousands, tons

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Million, GHC
Million, GHC
Retail Sales and Domestic VAT collection
Retail Sales, Left
Domestic VAT

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Million GHC
SSNIT Contributions from Private Sector


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Figure 3.1b: High Frequency Economic Indicators

Panel 2


Source: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Commercial banks' credit to the private sector increased in September 2025
relative to the pevious month...
...Industrial activity, proxied by industrial consumption of electricity,
remained largely unchanged...
...Exports increased while Imports remained largely unchanged in September
2025 compared to August 2025...

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Million, USD
Imports
Exports
Imports and Exports

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
GWh
Industrial Consumption of Electricity

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Billion, GHC
DMB's Credit to Private Sector
-2

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Percent, y-o-y
Real CIEA
-8
-4

Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Percent, y-o-y
Cement Sales (Tons)
Port Activity
SSNIT Contr by Pte Sector
Exports
Industrial Cons of Electricity
DMB's Credit to Pte Sector
Imports
Tourist Arrivals
Dom VAT
Real CIEA growth (%)
Contribution to Real CIEA growth

Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Job Adverts
...On a year-on-year basis, the real CIEA grew by 9.6 percent in September
2025, compared with a growth of 2.9 percent in September 2024...
...The growth in the real CIEA was mainly driven by a pick-up in Industrial
Consumption of Electricity, Imports, Exports, Port Activity, DMB's Credit to the
Private Sector, Domestic VAT and SSNIT Contributions by the Private Sector...
...Demand for labour, proxied by the number of job adverts (in print and
online media), increased in October 2025...
Number of advertised jobs


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Figure 3.1c: High Frequency Economic Indicators

Panel 3


Source: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Business Confidence remained broadly unchanged as firms’ concerns about
volatility of the local currency and higher input costs were largely offset by the
realisation of short-term targets as well as optimism about company, industry
and growth prospects...
...Vehicle registration increased in September 2025 compared to the month
before...
...Consumer confidence remained strong, despite some softening...


Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Vehicle Registration
106.5

Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Index
Business Confidence Index
115.3

Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Index
Consumer Confidence Index

Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Billion, GHC
Domestic taxes, Direct
...Domestic tax collection increased in September 2025 compared to August

Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Percent, y-o-y
Agricuture
Industry
Services
MIEG sectoral growth rate, y/y

Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Percent, y-o-y
MIEG growth rate, y/y
...The MIEG for August 2025 grew by 5.1 percent compared to a growth of 4.9
percent in August 2024...
...The services and agriculture sectors drove growth in August 2025, recording
growth rates of 9.6 percent and 7.4 percent respectively...
Number of vehicles

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4. Monetary and Financial Developments

4.0 Highlights
Monetary developments in October 2025 continued to reflect a tight monetary policy stance and active liquidity
management as broad money (M2+) and reserve money growth moderated sharply on account of contracting Net
Domestic Assets and slower accumulation of Net Foreign Assets. Declined net claims on Government, reduced claims
on DMBs, and intensified sterilisation operations were the key drivers of the subdued liquidity situation.

Nominal credit growth remained muted year-on-year as banks continued to favour Bank of Ghana and Government
securities. Real private sector credit posted a modest expansion, supported by strong disinflation and gradually
improving borrowing conditions, particularly within the second half of the year, but recorded a moderation in growth
from the previous year.

Short-term interest rates declined significantly on a year-on-year basis in line with the reduction in policy rates and
improved market liquidity, while medium- to long-term yields remained stable. Financial market activity strengthened,
with the GSE Composite Index recording notable gains while market capitalization increased, supported by improved
investor sentiment and stronger profitability among listed firms.

Table 4.1: Key Monetary and Financial Indicators


4.1 Developments in Monetary Aggregates

Money Supply
Broad money supply (M2+) growth recorded a significant moderation in October 2025, consistent with the Bank’s tight
monetary policy stance and sustained liquidity-management operations. Annual growth in M2+ slowed to 8.2 percent,
a significant decline from the growth of 43.8 percent recorded in October 2024. This sharp deceleration reflected weaker
contributions from both Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and Net Domestic Assets (NDA).

The contribution of NFA to total liquidity growth declined significantly to 8.6 percent in October 2025 compared with
30.6 percent a year earlier. This development was driven by valuation effects arising from the year-to-date appreciation
of the cedi, which lowered the domestic-currency value of foreign-denominated assets. A moderation in the banking
sector’s foreign asset position relative to the strong inflows recorded last year further contributed to the weaker NFA
growth.

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Sources: Bank of Ghana


The contribution of NDA to M2+ growth similarly declined during the review period, with its contribution decreasing
to negative 0.4 percent from 13.2 percent in October 2024. The contraction in NDA was underpinned by a significant
reduction in Net Claims on Government (NCG), claims on the private sector (including public enterprises), and increased
sterilization through the issuance of Bank of Ghana Bills during the review period.

NCG as a contribution to NDA growth declined to negative 4.2 percent in line with continued fiscal consolidation and
adherence to the zero-financing policy under the IMF-supported programme.

The decline in NDA was partially moderated by developments in Other Items Net (OIN), which recorded a sharp increase
in its contrbution to M2+ growth to 53.0 percent from negative 6.9 percent in the previous year.

The composition of M2+ growth showed a broad-based decline across all categories of deposits and currency holdings.
The contribution of demand deposits to M2+ growth declined to 4.2 percent from 14.9 percent in October 2024, while
the contribution of savings and time deposits moderated to 6.9 percent from 7.3 percent a year earlier, in line with slower
liquidity creation by the banking system. The contribution of currency in circulation declined to 2.5 percent compared
to 10.7 percent recorded in the previous year. Foreign currency deposits (FCDs) was a drag on growth in M2+ , recording
a contribution of negative 5.4 percent in October 2025, compared to 11.0 percent last year, driven largely by valuation
effects from the stable exchange rate and a higher preference for cedi-denominated assets.


percent
Figure 4.1a: M2+ Growth and its Sources (% contributions)
Net Foreign Assets
NDA
Total Liquidity (M2+)

per cent
Figure 4.1b: Banking Sector NDA and its Sources; per cent
contributions
NCG
Claims on Priv. Sect. (Incl. PE's)
BOG OMO Steril. Acc.
OIN
NDA

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Source: Bank of Ghana

4.2 Reserve Money
Reserve Money (RM) growth continued to moderate significantly in October 2025, reflecting subdued liquidity creation
from both domestic and external sources. Annual RM growth eased to 0.1 percent in October 2025, compared with the
significant growth of 104.5 percent recorded in October 2024. This sharp deceleration underscores the tighter liquidity
conditions shaped by ongoing monetary policy restraint and active sterilisation operations.

The decline in RM growth was primarily driven by a contraction in Net Domestic Assets (NDA). NDA contribution to
RM growth declined to negative 30.5 percent October 2025, compared to 28.6 percent in October 2024, reflecting
reduced net claims on Government (NCG), net claims on DMBs, and intense open market operations (OMO) aimed at
sterilizing excess liquidity.

Developments in Net Foreign Assets (NFA) moderated the decline in RM growth. Although NFA increased on a yearon-year basis, to GH¢73,050.9 million in October 2025 from GH¢ 33,675.6 million in October 2024, the pace of
accumulation slowed considerably relative to the strong external inflows recorded last year. The moderation partly
reflected valuation effects associated with the year-to-date appreciation of the cedi during the year, which reduced the
domestic-currency value of foreign-denominated assets. As a result, the contribution of NFA to RM growth declined to
30.5 percent in October 2025, from 75.8 percent a year earlier.


Source: Bank of Ghana


percent
Curr.
Dem. Dep
Sav and Time Dep.
FCDs
Total Liquidity (M2+)
Figure 4.2: M2+ growth and its component (% contributions)

Per cent
NDA
NFA
RM growth (y-on-y)
Figure 4.3a: RM Growth and Contribution from NFA
and NDA

Percent
NCG
NC_DMBs
OMO Ster. A/c
OIN
Figure 4.3b: BOG NDA and Its
Sources (% Contributions)

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4.3 Deposit Money Banks Credit Developments
Credit conditions in the banking sector remained subdued in October 2025, reflecting banks’ cautious risk-taking stance
and a continued preference for Government and Bank of Ghana securities. Total net credit flows slowed to GH¢8,626
million (9.1 percent) as at end-October 2025, compared with GH¢20,952.3 million (28.5 percent) in October 2024. This
sharp decline was a result of a marked reduction in lending to the public sector, alongside softer credit expansion to the
private economy.

Credit to the public sector contracted significantly during the period. Public sector credit declined by GH¢3,445.9 million
(-45.2 percent) in the year to October 2025, in contrast with the GH¢1,516.5 million (24.8 percent) expansion recorded
a year earlier. This decline reflected the ongoing fiscal consolidation which had resulted in reduced government
borrowing from the banking system.

Notwithstanding a moderation in growth in credit to the private sector, the private sector remained the primary recipient
of new lending. Private sector credit expanded by GH¢12,072 million (13.9 percent) in the year to October 2025,
although this reflected a moderation from the GH¢19,435.8 million (28.8 percent) growth recorded a year earlier. The
private sector’s share of total outstanding credit remained dominant, rising to 95.9 percent up from 91.9 percent in
October 2024. Nominal private sector credit stood at GH¢98,918.6 million at end-October 2025, compared with
GH¢86,846.7 million recorded in October 2024.

A sectoral breakdown of private-sector credit flows showed differentiated lending patterns. Services remained the largest
destination of new credit, contributing 77.7 percent of annual credit flows in October 2025, significantly higher than the
share of 24.5 percent recorded at the same time last year. The manufacturing sector accounted for 18.8 percent in
October 2025, compared with 10.6 percent a year earlier. The mining and quarrying sector similarly recorded a
substantial increase, absorbing 11.9 percent of annual private sector credit flows compared to 2.5 percent in 2024.

In real terms, private sector credit growth remained positive, supported by the significant decline in inflation. Real
private sector credit grew by 5.4 percent in October 2025, compared to 5.5 percent in October 2024. Although the real
growth rate in October 2025 was marginally lower than that of the previous year, it signalled an improving trend in real
private sector growth since May 2025. Real private sector credit growth remained slightly above its long-term trend
level in October 2025.


Source: Bank of Ghana
Percent
Figure 4.4a: Sectoral Shares in Credit to the Private
sector (%)
Oct-24
Oct-25

Percent
Figure 4.4b: Growth in Real Private Sector Credit (RGPSC)
vs. MA Trend
RGPSC
Trend

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4.4 Money Market Developments
Interest rate developments in October 2025 showed broad declines across the policy, money, and Treasury-bill markets,
consistent with the easing cycle initiated by the Bank of Ghana and the continued disinflation process. These movements
contrast sharply with conditions in October 2024, when rates remained elevated in line with tight monetary conditions
aimed at anchoring inflation expectations.

The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) declined significantly to 21.5 percent in October 2025, from 27 percent in October
2024. This reduction reflected the cumulative policy easing undertaken in 2025 as inflation pressures abated and the
macroeconomic environment stabilised. The corresponding downward adjustment in the overnight reverse repo and
deposit rates reinforced the easing monetary policy stance.

Short-term money market conditions broadly mirrored developments at the policy level. The Interbank Weighted
Average Rate declined to 21.00 percent in October 2025 from 27.7 percent a year earlier, indicating declining cost of
overnight funds. Similarly, the average lending rate of banks eased to 22.2 percent from 30.5 percent in October 2024,
reflecting a partial pass-through of the lower policy and money-market rates to the credit market. Real rates remained
broadly positive, reflecting the sharp decline in inflation during the review period.

Developments in the Treasury bill market were consistent with these trends. The 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day Treasury
bill rates declined sharply to 10.6 percent, 12.6 percent, and 12.9 percent, respectively, compared with 25.8 percent, 27.0
percent, and 28.7 percent a year earlier. This decline reflects sustained investor demand at the short end of the curve and
ongoing efforts to reduce Government’s domestic refinancing costs. The downward movement in short-term yields also
suggests renewed market confidence and improving inflation dynamics. Rates on medium- to long-term Government
securities such as the 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 6-year, 7-year, 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year bonds remained broadly
unchanged, given limited activity in that segment of the market.


Source: Bank of Ghana


Percent
Figure 4.5a: MPR, Depo, Reverse Repo, Interbank and T-bill
Rates and Inflation
Reverse Repo(Daily)
MPR
Depo Rate
91-Day T-bill rate
Inter-Bank rate

Percent
Figure 4.5b: Yield Curve (YOY)
Oct-24
Oct-25

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Source: Bank of Ghana


4.5 Stock Market Developments
Activity on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) strengthened further in October 2025, supported by improved investor
sentiment, stronger corporate earnings, and continued macroeconomic stability. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI)
closed the month at 8,385.35 points, compared with 4,385.94 points in October 2024, representing a growth rate of 91.2
percent. This marked improvement reflects sustained buying interest across key counters, improved profitability among
listed firms, and renewed portfolio inflows as inflation eased and financial conditions stabilised. Sectoral performance
was broadly positive, with notable contributions from the distribution, IT, finance and food and beverages (F&B) sectors
with annual growth rates of 173.2 percent, 94.5 percent, 87.4 percent and 58.3 percent, respectively.

The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also recorded significant growth, rising to 4,193.90 points in October 2025
from 2,237.5 points a year earlier. The strong performance of financial stocks mirrors the sector’s continued recovery
following balance-sheet adjustments undertaken in the aftermath of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP)
and enhanced earnings performance in the financial system.

Table 4.2: Performance of Ghana Stock Exchange

Source: Ghana Stock Exchange and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Market capitalization continued its upward trajectory, increasing to GH¢166.54 billion at end-October 2025 from
GH¢100.15 billion in October 2024. This represents a substantial expansion in overall market value, driven primarily
by appreciable gains in share prices across both financial and non-financial sectors. The sharp rise in market
capitalization also reflects renewed investor confidence in the equity market, improved corporate performance, and the
broader macroeconomic gains achieved during the year. Sectorally, the distribution, finance, and IT sectors recorded
strong gains of 173.2 percent, 131.2 percent and 94.5 percent, respectively.

4.6 Conclusion
Monetary developments in October 2025 were underpinned by the Bank’s continued tight monetary policy stance and
active sterilization. Growth in both broad money (M2+) and reserve money moderated sharply relative to the elevated

percent
Figure 4.6: Real Interest Rates and Inflation
Real MPR
Real 91 Day T-bill Rate
Real Interbank Rate
Real Lending Rate
Real Deposit Rate
Inflation
Oct-23
Dec-23
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
GSE CI

GSE FI

Market Capitalization
73736.96
73893.17 92041.99 99101.87 100150.22 111356.09 149598.17 162594.44 166537.93

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levels observed in October 2024, driven largely by contractions in Net Domestic Assets, particularly, reduced net claims
on Government, and slower accumulation of Net Foreign Assets

Credit growth remained muted as Deposit Money Banks continued to rebalance their portfolios in favour of Bank of
Ghana instruments. However, a modest pick up in credit growth was observed particularly in the second half of the year,
in line with the Bank of Ghana’s easing policy stance.

In the money market, short-term interest rates declined significantly on a year-on-year basis, in line with Government’s
strategy to lower refinancing costs at the short end of the yield curve. Policy rate adjustments flowed through the market,
with declines in the interbank rate and average lending rate helping to ease the cost of financing for firms and households.
At the same time, the substantial fall in inflation led to a marked improvement in real interest rates, reinforcing the
Bank’s disinflation stance and maintaining sufficiently tight real monetary conditions despite the nominal easing.

Activity on the Ghana Stock Exchange continued to pick up in October, with the GSE Composite Index and GSE
Financial Index recording substantial year-on-year gains. Market capitalization expanded markedly, driven by broad
share price appreciation—particularly among financial, IT, and distribution sectors. The recovery in stock valuations
reflects improved profitability of listed firms, renewed investor confidence, and a stabilising macroeconomic
environment.

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5. Banking Sector Developments and Macroprudential Risk Assessment

5.0 Highlights
The banking sector’s performance in October 2025 depicted the industry’s resilience as asset growth remained strong.
However, growth in the banking industry assets in October 2025 moderated on the back of moderation in growth of
funding sources (i.e. deposits, borrowings and shareholders’ funds) largely due to appreciation of the Ghana cedi.
Growth in banks’ profit-before-tax and profit-after-tax were higher in the first ten months of 2025 relative to a similar
period a year ago.

Also, Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), except for core liquidity, suggested an improvement in October 2025
relative to the same period in 2024. Profit growth strongly picked up in October 2025, and this translated into a growth
in profitability indicators during the period. Banking sector solvency, as measured by the industry’s Capital Adequacy
Ratio (CAR) without regulatory reliefs, in October 2025 improved significantly to 16.6 percent, compared to 11.1
percent in the corresponding period in 2024. With reliefs, CAR similarly grew to 17.9 percent in October 2025, up from
14.3 percent in October 2024. The industry’s Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratio recorded an improvement in October
2025 relative to the same period in 2024 due to a contraction in the growth of NPL stock while credit growth slowed
down. However, asset quality remains a major risk to the banking sector.

In the outlook, the sector’s performance is contingent on banks’ adherence to recapitalisation plans and implementation
of the new NPL regulatory guidelines introduced by Bank of Ghana. Financial intermediation by banks is expected to
pick up as monetary policy continues to ease, which can lead to systemic risks.

5.1 Banks’ Balance Sheet
Total assets of the banking sector grew by 15.3 percent to GH¢423.3 billion as at October 2025, relative to 42.4 percent
growth recorded in October 2024. The growth in assets was driven largely by growth in deposits, notably domestic
deposits and other funding sources. Foreign assets contracted by 30.0 percent in October 2025 from a growth of 102.3
percent in October 2024, while domestic assets increased by 21.2 percent compared to 37.1 percent during the period
under review. Accordingly, the share of domestic assets in total assets rose from 88.4 percent to 93.0 percent while the
share of foreign assets in total assets decreased from 11.6 percent to 7.0 percent, during the same reference period.

In October 2025, investments surged by 54.1 percent to GH¢181.8 billion, relative to a growth of 13.7 percent for the
same period in October 2024. Growth in short-term instruments increased sharply by 140.5 percent from a negative
growth of 2.7 percent during the same period last year and this was primarily due to increased purchases of Bank of
Ghana bills by industry players in line with monetary policy. Investments in long-term securities, however, contracted
by 6.7 percent in October 2025 relative to a growth of 29.0 percent the previous year. This resulted in the share of shortterm bills as a proportion of total assets increasing to 27.6 percent in October 2025 from 13.2 percent in October 2024.
The rebalancing of banks’ portfolios in favour of short-term bills led to an increased share of investments in total assets
to 43.0 percent in October 2025, from 32.1 percent in October 2024.

Credit growth slowed down within the banking sector in October 2025. Gross loans and advances grew by 9.1 percent
to GH¢103.1 billion in October 2025, compared to a 28.5 percent growth in October 2024. Growth in net loans and
advances (gross loans adjusted for provisions and interest in suspense) also slowed down to 12.0 percent from 23.3
percent in the previous year.

Deposits continued to be the main source of funding for the industry. Total banking deposits stood at GH¢302.0 billion
as at end-October 2025. The growth in deposits moderated from 38.7 percent in October 2024 to 8.9 percent in October
2025. This moderate growth in year-on-year terms was driven mainly by domestic deposits. The foreign currency

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component of deposits in cedi terms contracted by 21.1 percent to GH¢71.3 billion in October 2025, compared to a
growth of 39.8 percent in the same period last year. This was due to the appreciation of the Ghana cedi during the period.

Growth in borrowings in October 2025 moderated to 67.2 percent to GH¢43.8 billion from a growth of 75.4 percent in
October 2024 due to a contraction in foreign currency borrowings. On the domestic front, short-term and long-term
borrowings recorded a year-on-year growths of 96.2 percent and 74.5 percent, respectively, in October 2025.

The industry’s shareholders’ funds (comprising paid-up capital and reserves) grew at a lower rate of 41.0 percent to
GH¢53.5 billion in October 2025, compared to a growth of 49.5 percent in October 2024. The growth was driven by a
strong outturn in industry profit and some recapitalization efforts by banks.


Table 5.1: Key Developments in DMBs’ Balance Sheet

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.1.1 Asset and Liability Structure
The asset structure of the industry’s balance sheet in October 2025 point toward a rebalancing of bank’s portfolios
towards investments. Investments (comprising bills, securities, and equity) was the largest component of the industry’s
assets with a share of 43.0 percent in October 2025 against its share of 32.1 percent in October 2024. Consequently, the
share of cash and bank balances to total assets declined to 27.7 percent from 37.2 percent during the review period. The
slowdown in credit growth reflected in a declined share of net advances of 20.5 percent from 21.1 percent in October
2024. Net advances remained the third-largest component of total assets in the banking sector. Non-earning assets (fixed
assets and other assets) in banks’ total assets declined in share to 8.9 percent in October 2025 from 9.5 percent a year
earlier. Investments and cash and bank balances together accounted for 70.6 percent of total assets in October 2025,
compared to a share of 69.4 percent in October 2024.

Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Oct-24
Oct-25
TOTAL ASSETS
367,211.5

415,201.5

423,297.9

42.4

22.4

15.3

100.0

100.0

A. Foreign Assets
42,544.5

27,345.2

29,768.0

102.3

(16.6)

(30.0)

11.6

7.0

B. Domestic Assets
324,667.0

387,856.3

393,530.0

37.1

26.5

21.2

88.4

93.0

Investments
117,989.2

182,295.5

181,848.3

13.7

56.2

54.1

32.1

43.0

i. Bills
48,649.5

116,766.8

117,025.2

(2.7)

127.6

140.5

13.2

27.6

ii. Securities
69,002.2

65,114.1

64,399.3

29.0

0.1

(6.7)

18.8

15.2

Advances (Net)
77,521.3

79,371.0

86,848.6

23.3

12.7

12.0

21.1

20.5

of which Foreign Currency
24,918.1

20,078.0

19,265.3

15.7

(14.8)

(22.7)

6.8

4.6

Gross Advances
94,477.3

95,337.9

103,103.4

28.5

10.0

9.1

25.7

24.4

Other Assets
25,666.8

26,390.1

26,827.3

70.8

19.7

4.5

7.0

6.3

Fixed Assets
8,688.2

10,081.0

10,198.4

12.4

15.0

17.4

2.4

2.4

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
367,211.5

415,201.5

423,297.9

42.4

22.4

15.3

100.0

100.0

Total Deposits
277,256.3

300,109.6

301,964.1

38.7

17.8

8.9

75.5

71.3

of which Foreign Currency
90,431.1

70,147.3

71,349.8

39.8

(15.6)

(21.1)

24.6

16.9

Total Borrowings
26,216.2

39,913.4

43,841.1

75.4

54.6

67.2

7.1

10.4

Foreign Liabilities
6,454.8

5,385.7

5,050.2

(0.8)

(25.7)

(21.8)

1.8

1.2

i. Short-term borrowings
3,127.4

2,508.2

2,526.9

107.0

15.8

(19.2)

0.9

0.6

ii. Long-term borrowings
2,602.2

1,656.6

1,443.7

(34.2)

(60.9)

(44.5)

0.7

0.3

iii. Deposits of non-residen
714.8

1,138.4

948.3

(31.6)

38.6

32.7

0.2

0.2

Domestic Liabilities
322,813.5

359,474.3

364,741.0

43.4

20.9

13.0

87.9

86.2

i. Short-term borrowing
18,971.7

33,663.9

37,227.3

122.0

87.4

96.2

5.2

8.8

ii. Long-term Borrowings
1,514.9

2,084.7

2,643.3

62.1

43.9

74.5

0.4

0.6

iii. Domestic Deposits
276,541.5

298,971.2

301,015.8

39.0

17.7

8.9

75.3

71.1

Other Liabilities
25,108.7

23,549.4

22,692.6

46.7

(4.4)

(9.6)

6.8

5.4

Paid-up capital
16,902.2

19,233.2

19,234.6

62.0

39.7

13.8

4.6

4.5

Shareholders' Funds
37,943.2

50,329.5

53,494.6

49.5

50.7

41.0

10.3

12.6

(GH ¢'million)
Y-on-Y Growth (%)
Shares (%)

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The funding structure of banks was largely from deposits. However, the share of deposits in banks’ liabilities and
shareholders’ funds declined to 71.3 percent in October 2025 from 75.5 percent in the corresponding period last year
while the share of borrowings increased to 10.4 percent in October 2025 from 7.1 percent in October 2024. The size of
shareholders’ funds in banks’ liabilities and shareholders’ funds increased to 12.6 percent from 10.3 percent while the
share of other liabilities declined to 5.4 percent from 6.8 percent relative to same period last year.

Figure 5.1: Developments in Banks’ Balance Sheet & Asset Quality

Source: Bank of Ghana


Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Components of Banks' Investments (% share)
Bills
Securities
Shares & Other Equities

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Asset Structure of Banks (%)
Cash and Due from Banks
Investments
Net Advances
Others

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Liability Structure of Banks (%)
Total Deposits
Total Borrowings
Shareholders' Funds
Other Liabilities

Components of Banks' Credit Portfolio (%)
Private sector
Public sector

Agric, Forest. & Fishing
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elect., Water & Gas
Commerce and Finance
Transp., Stor. & Commu.
Services
Miscellaneous
Distribution of Credit by Sector (%)
Oct-25
Oct-24

Agric, Forest. & Fishing
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elect., Water & Gas
Commerce and Finance
Transp., Stor. & Commu.
Services
Miscellaneous

NPL ratio in each Sector (%)
Oct-25
Oct-24

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5.1.2 Share of Banks’ Investments
Short-term instruments replaced long-term instruments as the largest component of banks’ investment portfolio. Its share
increased to 64.4 percent in October 2025 from 41.2 percent in the corresponding period of 2024. The share of longterm instruments however, dropped from 58.5 percent in October 2024 to 35.4 percent in October 2025 reflecting the
industry’s rebalancing of portfolios. The share of equity investments remained flat at 0.2 percent during the period under
review.


5.2 Credit Risk
The industry’s asset quality as measured by industry’s Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratio recorded an improvement
in October 2025 relative to the same period in 2024 mainly due to a contraction in the growth of NPL stock while credit
growth slowed down.

5.2.1 Credit Portfolio Analysis
The moderation in credit growth recorded in October 2025 is attributable to the contraction in foreign currency loans.
The growth of gross loans and advances moderated by 9.1 percent in October 2025 to GH¢102.4 billion compared to an
annual growth of 28.5 percent in October 2024. Private sector credit (comprising credit to private enterprises and
households) also grew by 13.1 percent to GH¢98.2 billion in October 2025 relative to a 28.8 percent growth in the same
period a year earlier. Public sector credit however, posted a contraction of 45.2 percent to GH¢4.2 billion at end-October
2025 from a growth of 24.9 percent in October 2024. Subsequently, the share of private sector credit in total credit rose
to 95.9 percent as at end-October 2025, from 91.9 percent in October 2024, while the share of public sector declined
from 8.1 percent in October 2024 to 4.1 percent in October 2025.

In terms of the distribution of credit by sectors, the services sector continued to be the dominant sector that received
credit. It accounted for the largest share of 36.9 percent as at end-October 2025 (from 31.4 percent in October 2024),
followed by the commerce and finance sectors with a share of 23.3 percent (a moderation from 25.4 percent in October
2024). The manufacturing sector had an increased share of 11.5 percent (from 10.2 percent in October 2024). In total,
these three largest sectors accounted for 71.7 percent of total credit in October 2025, compared with 67.0 percent in
October 2024. The electricity, water and gas sector was the lowest recipient of industry credit with a share of 2.8 percent
as of end-October 2025 relative to a share of 4.5 percent a year prior.

5.2.2 Off-Balance Sheet Activities
Off-balance sheet transactions (largely trade finance and guarantees) decreased during the period under review.
Contingent liabilities contracted by 33.0 percent to GH¢18.2 billion as at end-October 2025, down from GH¢27.2 billion
as at end-October 2024. Accordingly, banks’ contingent liabilities as a percentage of total liabilities declined from 8.3
percent in October 2024 to 4.9 percent in October 2025.

5.2.3 Asset Quality
The industry’s asset quality improved during the period under review. The industry’s NPL ratio declined to 19.5 percent
in October 2025, from 22.7 percent in October 2024. This ratio also improved from 9.4 percent in October 2024 to 6.8
percent end-October 2025 when adjusted for the fully provisioned loan loss category. This reflected a decrease share of
sub-standard and an increase in doubtful and loss loans in the NPL stock. The decline in the NPL ratio was due to the
contraction in the stock of NPL and a modest pickup in credit. The industry’s NPL stock contracted by 6.2 percent to
GH¢20.1 billion in October 2025 from GH¢21.4 billion in October 2024, showing the impact of increased write-offs
and repayments as well as the appreciation of the Ghana Cedi.

The private sector, continued to be the largest recipient of the industry’s credit and thus, accounted for the largest share
of NPLs as at end-October 2025. The proportion of NPLs attributable to the private sector increased marginally from

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96.0 percent in October 2024 to 97.3 percent in October 2025, while that of the public sector declined from 4.0 percent
in October 2024 to 2.7 at end-October 2025.

In terms of the sectorial distribution of loans, the electricity, water & gas sector recorded the lowest NPL ratio (from
13.3 percent to 5.5 percent). During the review period, the manufacturing, electricity, water & gas, transport, storage
and communication and services sector recorded improvement in their NPL ratios. The agriculture, forestry and fishing
sector recorded the highest NPL ratio of 47.3 percent (from 44.7 percent). It was followed by the transportation, storage,
and communication sector with an NPL ratio of 42.7 percent (from 49.4 percent).

5.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
Trends in the industry’s Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) indicated an improvement during the period under review.

Figure 5.2: Key Financial Soundness Indicators

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.3.1 Liquidity Indicators
The banking industry maintained a strong overall liquidity position in October 2025; however, performance across
liquidity indicators was uneven, with a notable divergence between core liquidity and broad liquidity measures. This
suggests that while aggregate funding capacity remains adequate, underlying structural liquidity dynamics may require
closer monitoring to ensure sustained short-term resilience. Core liquidity declined in October 2025 as industry players
decreased their cash and bank holdings while broad liquidity increased due to the pick in investments. The ratio of core
liquid assets (mainly cash and due from banks) to total deposits declined to 38.8 percent in October 2025 from 49.3
percent in October 2024, while core liquid assets to total assets ratio also decreased to 27.7 percent from 37.2 percent.
However, the ratio of broad liquid assets to total deposits increased from 91.7 percent to 98.8 percent, while the broad
liquid assets to total assets ratio also increased to 70.5 percent from 69.3 percent over the review period.

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Efficiency Indicators (%)
Cost to income
Operational Cost to gross income
Cost to total assets (RHS)
Operational Cost to total assets (RHS)

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Profitability (%)
Return On Equity (%) after tax
Return On Assets (%) before tax

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Asset Quality
SUB-STD (GH¢m)
DOUBTFUL (GH¢m)
LOSS (GH¢m)
Adjusted NPL Ratio (%)
NPL Ratio (% Right Axis)

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Solvency (%)
RWA/Total Assets
CAR (with Reliefs)
CAR (w/o Reliefs)

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5.3.2 Capital Adequacy Ratio
The industry’s solvency position, measured by the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) improved year-on-year. The industry
recorded a CAR of 16.6 percent in October 2025 compared to 11.2 percent in October 2024. This was on account of the
recapitalisation by banks as well as profitability realised by the sector. With regulatory reliefs, CAR was 17.9 percent in
October 2025, compared to 14.3 percent in October 2024.

5.3.3 Profitability
The banking industry remained profitable for the first ten months of 2025. It recorded a sharp profit-before-tax (PBT)
growth of 43.8 percent (from 18.2 percent) to GH¢19 billion in October 2025 and an after-tax growth of 47.8 percent
(from 19.9 percent) to GH¢12.6 billion in October 2025 relative to the corresponding period last year.

All income lines recorded growth in October 2025 with other income growing at 48.5 percent compared to 4.9 percent
the similar period last year. On year-on-year basis, interest income moderated by 18.4 percent to GH¢37.1 billion in
October 2025 from GH¢31.3 billion in October 2024. Net interest income saw a moderation of 17.9 percent to GH¢24.4
billion from 18.3 percent in October 2024. Interest expenses slowed down by 19.5 percent to GH¢12.7 billion in October
2025 from a growth of 24.0 percent (GH¢10.1 billion) in October 2024. The growth in net interest income is attributable
to the slowdown in interest expense due to lower interbank lending rates in October 2025 compared to October 2024.

Net fees and commissions recorded a slower growth of 8.6 percent from 26.0 percent a year ago. These developments
resulted in a 24.0 percent growth in the industry’s net operating income in October 2025 compared with the 14.4 percent
growth recorded in the previous year.

The cost lines also recorded increases in October 2025. There was a marginal difference in growth rates in the period
under review. The industry’s operating expenses slowed down by 16.9 percent in October 2025, compared to 21.0
percent in 2024, on the back of a thin growth in staff costs and other operating (administrative) expenses. Provisions for
depreciation, bad debt and impairment losses on financial assets however contracted by 56.7 percent in October 2025
compared to the 1.0 percent expansion recorded in October 2024.

(a) Return on Assets and Return on Equity
The sector’s profitability indicators, namely, return-on-assets (ROA) and return-on-equity (ROE), improved during the
period under review. This is on account of the robust growth of profit-before-tax and profit-after-tax. The ROE increased
from 31.2 percent in October 2024 to 32.2 percent in October 2025, while the ROA also increased to 5.8 percent from
5.0 percent over the same comparative period.

(b) Interest Margin and Spread
Interest spreads for the banking sector slowed down to 9.7 percent in October 2025, from 10.8 percent in October 2024.
The decrease in spreads was due to a marginal decline in interest payable to 4.7 percent from 4.8 percent in a similar
period last year. Gross yields declined marginally during the reference period. The interest margin to total assets ratio
also increased from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent within the reference period, while interest margin to gross income recorded
a decline from 51.3 percent to 50.2 percent. The ratio of gross income to total assets (asset utilisation) improved to 11.5
percent in October 2025 from 11.0 percent in October 2024, while the profitability ratio increased from 21.1 percent to
25.9 percent over the review period.

(c) Composition of Banks’ Income
The largest component of banks’ total income in October 2025 was income from investments. It’s share grew from 41.6
percent in October 2024 to 46.5 percent in 2025. Subsequently, the share of interest income from loans reduced from

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35.9 percent to 29.6 percent. Similarly, the share of income from fees and commissions, reduced from 11.8 percent to
10.6 percent. The share of income from other sources increased from 10.7 percent to 13.2 percent.


Figure 5.3: Composition of Income, Cost and Borrowings

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.3.4 Operational Efficiency
The efficiency of the banking sector improved, driven primarily by a deceleration in the growth of operating expenses
during the review period. The cost-to-income ratio improved from 78.9 percent in October 2024 to 74.1 percent in
October 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Similarly, the cost-to-total-assets ratio strengthened to 8.5
percent in October 2025, compared with 8.7 percent recorded in the corresponding period last year. The operational
cost-to-total assets ratio also declined to 5.5 percent, from 5.8 percent last year, while the ratio of operational cost to
total income improved from 52.7 percent in October 2024, to 48.1 percent in October 2025.

5.3.5 Banks’ Counterparty Relationships
Total offshore balances contracted by 29.1 percent to GH¢27.5 billion in October 2025, compared with the 125.7 percent
increase recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year. This development was primarily attributable to
contractions in both nostro balances and placements. Growth in nostro balances declined sharply by 43.3 percent in
October 2025 compared with a growth of 176.6 percent in October 2024. Growth in industry placements also declined
by 14.8 percent in October 2025, compared to a growth of 90.8 percent during the same period last year. Accordingly,
the ratio of offshore balances to net worth dropped to 51.4 percent in October 2025, from 102.2 percent in October 2024.


Composition of Cost (%)
Interest Expense
Operating Expense
Total Provision
Tax

Composition of Banks' Income (%)
Investments
Loans
Fees & Commissions
Other Income

Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Banks' Borrowing by Source (% of Total)
Domestic Borrowing
Foreign Borrowing

Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Banks' External Borrowing by Maturity (%
of Total)
Short-term borrowings
Long term borrowings

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The share of banks’ external borrowings in total borrowings declined to 9.1 percent in October 2025, from 21.9 percent
in October 2024, while the share of domestic borrowings increased to 90.9 percent from 78.1 percent over the same
period. External borrowing activity was predominantly directed toward short-term instruments. Accordingly, the share
of short-term borrowings increased to 63.6 percent in October 2025, compared with 54.6 percent a year earlier, whereas
the share of long-term borrowings in total external borrowings decreased to 36.4 percent from 45.4 percent.


5.4 Credit Conditions Survey
The October 2025 Credit Conditions Survey indicated a net easing in the overall credit stance toward enterprise lending
during September and October 2025. This development was primarily driven by a relaxation in lending conditions for
long term enterprise loans as lending conditions for large corporates, small and medium enterprises and short-term
enterprise loans remain relatively tight. Furthermore, banks anticipate a continued easing of their overall credit stance
on enterprise loans over the next two months, supported by expected loosening across all components of enterprise
lending.

The October 2025 Credit Conditions Survey also indicated a tightening in the overall credit stance toward household
lending, reversing the previous easing observed in both consumer credit and mortgage segments. Looking ahead, banks
project a further tightening of household credit conditions over the next two months, primarily driven by more restrictive
policies on loans for consumer credit and other lending.


Figure 5.4: Credit Conditions Survey Results

Source: Bank of Ghana

The survey further reported a decline in overall demand for enterprise loans, primarily reflecting reductions across all
enterprise loan components. This trend is likely attributable to seasonal factors, as firms scale down operations towards

NPR (%)
Loans for house purchase
Consumer credit and other lending
Overall stance to Households
Households
Index, a rise denotes
tightening

NPR (%)
Loans for house purchase
Loans for consumer credit
Overall Household demand for loans
Households
Index, a rise denotes
increase in demand

NPR (%)
Small and Medium Enterprises
Large Enterprises
Overall Credit Stance for Enterprises
Short term enterprise loans
Long term enterprise loans
Index, a rise
denotes tightening
Corporates

NPR (%)
Overall Demand for credit
Small and Medium Enterprises
Large Enterprises
Short term
Long term
Index, a rise denotes
increase in demand
Corporates

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the close of the year. Looking ahead, banks anticipate a further decline in corporate loan demand over the next two
months, driven predominantly by weaker demand for long-term facilities and loans to large enterprises, alongside a more
moderate increase in short-term credit and SME borrowing.

Conversely, household credit demand increased between August and October 2025, reversing the earlier decline
observed in mortgage, consumer credit, and other lending between July and August 2025. Looking ahead, banks project
a further strengthening in household loan demand over the next two months, supported by anticipated growth in both
consumer credit and mortgage financing, which is expected to drive an overall expansion in household borrowing.


5.5 Macroprudential Risk Assessment

Cobweb Assessment3
The latest macro-financial risks assessment revealed that risks emerging from the global and domestic macroeconomic
environment as well as those from the corporate and household sectors have moderated considerably year-on-year. The
broad-based moderation in risks was partly driven by easing global inflation and lending conditions, amid favourable
domestic macroeconomic developments resulting from low inflation, currency stability, reduction in public debt, robust
growth and strong external position. The sustained improvement in the macroeconomic environment enhanced the debt
servicing capacity of the corporate and household sectors.

In the near term, the observed moderation in risks emerging from the various risks dimensions (global, domestic,
corporate and household) is expected to be sustained on the back of continuous easing in global inflation and lending
rate, and favourable domestic macroeconomic prospects. The favourable macroeconomic prospect is expected to
improve the debt servicing capacity of corporates and households as the declines in inflation and interest rate impact
positively on cost of credit. In addition, the Bank of Ghana’s regulatory measures to reduce NPLs to the prudential
threshold of10% is expected to reduce asset quality risks from corporates and households.

Figure 5.5: Ghana Cobweb Diagram, September 2023 – 2025

Source: Bank of Ghana


3 The Cobweb diagram illustrates changes in macro-financial risks impacting the banking sector from four dimensions—global
macroenvironment, domestic macroenvironment, corporate, and household sectors—using risk scores derived from sector-specific
indicators. Movements outward from the origin denote higher risk.

Global Economy Risk
Domestic Economy Risk
Households Sector Risk
Corporate Sector Risk
Sep-2023
Sep-2024
Sep-2025

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Credit-to-GDP4
Ghana’s credit-to-GDP gap remained negative in September 2025, despite modest increases in private sector credit. The
negative gap indicates that total credit relative to the size of the economy is below its long-term trend, as shown in the
figure below. It also suggests scope for measured credit expansion amid improving macroeconomic fundamentals,
supported by strong credit risk management across the banking sector.

Figure 5.6: Credit-to-GDP Gap

Source: Bank of Ghana

Banking Sector Soundness Index (BSSI)5
The soundness of the banking sector as at end-October 2025 improved markedly year-on-year. The Banking Sector
Soundness Index (BSSI) improved in October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, reflecting strong solvency,
adequate liquidity, earnings, and improving asset quality. The outlook of the banking sector remains positive amid a
favourable macroeconomic environment, enhanced supervision, ongoing recapitalisation efforts, sustained earnings and
expected strengthening of risk management systems by banks.

Figure 5.7: Banking Sector Soundness Index (BSSI)

Source: Bank of Ghana

4 The Credit-to-GDP gap is an early warning signal that measures excessive credit growth by comparing the private sector creditto-GDP ratio to its optimal trend. A positive gap signals that credit levels have surpassed their sustainable or optimal trend,
highlighting potential risks of credit overheating in the economy.
5 The BSSI is a composite index that combines a set of financial soundness indicators relating to capital adequacy, asset quality,
management efficiency, earnings, and liquidity. An upward-trending BSSI connotes a general improvement in the performance of
the banking system.

Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Sep-24
Mar-25
Sep-25
CREDIT_TO_GDP_GAP
LOWER_THRESHOLD

Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Core BSSI
Long-term trend
Mean

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FSI Heatmap6
The heatmap showed a broad-based improvement in financial soundness indicators across the banking sector. It showed
improvements in capital adequacy, and profitability year-on-year. Notwithstanding these gains, non-performing loans
remain elevated.

Table 5.2: Heatmap


Color Code
Green
Blue
Yellow
Red
Performing Period
1st Best
2nd Best
3rd Best
4th Best
Source: Bank of Ghana


Banking Sector Resilience
Stress tests assessed at this round of MPC focused on the implications of revaluation of banks’ holding of the restructured
government bonds at prevailing financial market conditions on the solvency conditions of the banking sector. The
assessment estimated the fair value of bonds from their respective prices on the Ghana Fixed Income Market and
Bloomberg. The estimated net present value (NPV) is compared to the book value, and where the fair value is lower
than the book value, the difference is the required additional impairment to be booked; otherwise, no additional
impairment booking is required.

The results of the stress tests indicated that the banking sector appears resilient to shocks emanating from the repricing
of such government instruments, on the back of the declining trend in interest rates on the money markets. Further, the
improving strong capital positions of banks and the pre-emptive actions of banks to timely estimate and book required
impairments also provided some cushion to their resilience.


6 The heat map is a quartile-based analysis that reflects the performance of the banking system over a period of time (using monthly
data), starting from January 2007 to date.

FSIs
Jun-23
Sep-23
Oct-23 Dec-23
Mar-24 Jun-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Dec-24 Mar-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Sep-25 Oct-25
Capital Adequacy
Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets (Threshold - Without Reliefs)
7.36

7.39

7.33

8.27

11.69

10.55

11.17

11.14

11.28

15.54

17.83

17.67

16.44

16.59

Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets (Distribution - Without Reliefs)
7.36

7.39

7.33

8.27

11.69

10.55

11.17

11.14

11.28

15.54

17.83

17.67

16.44

16.59

Regulatory tier I capital to risk-weighted assets
11.60

11.03

10.67

11.04

13.56

11.46

11.51

11.40

11.13

14.89

16.62

16.14

14.75

15.22

Asset Quality
Nonperforming loans net of loan-loss provision to capital
14.26

11.28

11.14

14.55

19.45

15.36

12.29

11.76

11.10

11.98

8.32

7.62

8.32

7.15

Nonperforming loans to total gross loans
18.71

17.99

18.31

20.58

26.74

24.13

22.77

22.67

21.79

23.44

23.09

20.77

20.43

19.48

Banks provisions to NPL
76.76

78.89

79.01

73.19

71.70

75.66

78.35

79.17

78.74

76.67

80.73

80.63

79.10

80.95

Earnings
Return on assets
5.54

5.33

5.52

5.37

5.63

5.40

5.05

4.96

5.04

4.96

5.61

5.64

5.70

5.81

Return on equity
37.59

35.58

36.35

34.16

36.36

35.25

32.12

31.19

30.84

29.92

32.21

32.21

31.61

32.16

Interest margin to gross income
49.06

51.27

51.56

51.80

54.23

51.41

51.10

51.27

50.92

51.82

50.11

50.18

50.16

50.15

Liquidity
Core liquid assets to total assets
26.77

24.73

24.91

29.34

30.99

34.47

35.39

34.78

36.16

36.24

27.50

26.91

27.22

25.93

Core liquid assets to short-term liabilities
32.29

29.83

30.18

35.48

37.32

41.39

42.54

41.69

43.31

43.47

33.68

32.80

33.00

31.66

Core liquid assets to total deposits
34.60

31.71

32.14

37.61

40.04

45.31

46.82

46.06

48.16

48.20

37.73

37.23

37.65

36.33

Broad liquid assets to total assets
63.78

64.73

65.04

65.69

68.35

67.55

67.58

66.88

66.87

69.44

69.67

70.72

69.65

68.79

Broad liquid assets to short-term liabilities
76.92

78.07

78.78

79.42

82.31

81.10

81.23

80.18

80.09

83.30

85.31

86.19

84.46

84.01

Efficiency
Noninterest expenses to gross income
41.26

42.69

41.93

43.04

38.86

37.65

39.43

41.06

40.83

37.78

35.70

35.33

34.98

34.96

Personnel expenses to gross income
15.49

15.65

15.78

15.67

16.19

16.62

16.67

16.47

16.45

17.25

16.71

16.88

16.78

16.85

PUBLIC
Figure 5.8: Post-Stressed CAR

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.6 Conclusion and Outlook
The banking sector’s performance in October 2025 reaffirmed its resilience amid evolving macro-financial conditions.
Strong asset growth, primarily driven by investment holdings, reflects a cautious portfolio rebalancing strategy in
response to credit risk considerations. Financial soundness indicators generally improved year-on-year, except for core
liquidity, which warrants close monitoring given its potential implications for short-term funding stability. The Capital
Adequacy Ratio (CAR), excluding regulatory reliefs, recorded a significant improvement and remained well above the
prudential limit, supported by sustained profitability and ongoing recapitalisation of undercapitalised banks. This
strengthening of capital buffers enhances the sector’s capacity to absorb shocks, particularly as credit risk remains
elevated despite improvements in asset quality. Non-performing loans (NPLs), while moderating, continue to pose
structural risks that could constrain credit intermediation if not addressed decisively. The industry’s outlook remains
broadly stable, contingent on the timely completion of recapitalisation by the end-2025 deadline and effective
enforcement of the Bank of Ghana’s NPL regulatory guidelines.

The macroprudential risk assessment shows that risks have generally moderated. The negative credit-to-GDP gap
supports measures designed to improve credit, without significant risk build-up, provided banks maintain sound credit
risk management systems. Systemic risks within the sector have remained broadly subdued due to strong solvency and
earnings positions amid adequate liquidity conditions. There has been a continuous, gradual improvement in key asset
quality indicators, suggesting that credit risk management has improved, though NPLs remain high. The banking sector
appears well-positioned to contain interest rate risk related to government instruments.


16.59
13.09

Actual CAR(September 2025)
Stressed CAR
Percent

PUBLIC
6. Price Developments

6.0 Highlights
Headline inflation continued its downward trend, with broad-based declines across both food and non-food categories.
This disinflation was primarily driven by tight monetary policy, ongoing fiscal consolidation. and the strong recovery
of the cedi. Staff projections suggest a strong likelihood that inflation will decline further into the fourth quarter of 2025.

6.1 Domestic Price Developments
Headline inflation continued its downward trend, declining to 8.0 percent in October 2025 from 9.4 percent in September
2025. This marked the tenth consecutive monthly decline, driven by broad-based easing across both food and non-food
components. Food inflation eased to 9.5 percent in October from 10.8 percent in September, largely due to a bumper
harvest. Non-food inflation also declined to 6.8 percent in October from 8.2 percent in September, reflecting the
combined effects of tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, easing global inflationary pressures, bumper harvest,
and a strong appreciation of the Ghana cedi in the second quarter of 2025.

Figure 6.1: Year-on-Year Inflation

Source: GSS and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Underlying inflationary pressures also continued to ease. The Bank’s core measure of inflation, which excludes energy
and utility items from the consumer basket, declined to 7.4 percent in October, down from 8.8 percent in September.
Inflation expectations, based on surveys of banks, businesses, and consumers, also remained well-anchored, reflecting
the continued easing of underlying inflationary pressures.

Figure 6.2: Headline vs Core Inflation (%)

Source: GSS and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Headline
Lower Band
Upper Band

Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Headline vs Core Inflation (%)
Core 1 (Excluding Fuel, and Utilities)
Headline Inflation

PUBLIC


On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation fell sharply to -0.4 percent in October 2025 from 0.9 percent in September
2025. On the back of a bumper harvest, monthly food inflation fell to -0.9 percent in October, down from 0.6 percent in
September 2025. Similarly, non-food inflation declined to 0.04 percent from 1.2 percent over the same comparative
period.

Figure 6.3: Month-on-Month Inflation (%)

Source: Ghana Statistical Service


Table 6.1: CPI Components


-3
-2
-1

Oct-

Nov-

Dec-

Jan-

Feb-

Mar-

Apr-

May
-24
Jun-

Jul-

Aug-

Sep-

Oct-

Nov-

Dec-

Jan-

Feb-

Mar-

Apr-

May
-25
Jun-

Jul-

Aug-

Sep-

Oct-

Headline

Food

Non-food

Monthly Inflation
Weghts
Dec
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Apr
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
(%)
Overall

Food and Beverages

Non-food

Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics

Clothing and footwear

Housing and Utilities

Furnishings, Household Equipment

Health

Transport

Information and Communication

Recreation & Culture

Education

Restaurants and accommodation services

Insurance and Financial services

Personal care, social protection & Miscellaneous services

Source: Ghana Statistical Service

CPI Components (%)

PUBLIC
6.2 Inflation Risk Assessment and Outlook
In the outlook, headline inflation is expected to be within the lower bound of the medium-term target of 8 ± 2 percent.
This projection reflects the combined impact of the maintenance of an appropriate monetary policy stance, ongoing
fiscal consolidation and adequate reserve buffers.


Decision on the Monetary Policy Rate
The Committee observed a marked improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with inflation expectations broadly
anchored, strengthened external buffers, and renewed confidence in the economy. They further noted that headline
inflation is expected to be within the lower bound of the medium-term target of 8 ± 2 percent by the fourth quarter of
2025.
Looking ahead, the Committee noted that the possible upward adjustments in utility tariffs and spillover effects from
US tariff-related price pressures could exert some upside risks to the outlook. Notwithstanding this, the maintenance of
an appropriate monetary policy stance, strong sterilisation efforts, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and adequate reserve
buffers was expected to sustain the disinflation process going forward.

Given these considerations, the Committee, in a majority decision, voted to lower the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis
points to 18.0 percent. Looking ahead, the Committee noted that they will continue to assess incoming data and take
appropriate policy decisions, as needed, to reinforce the disinflation trend.

PUBLIC
APPENDIX

Table A.1: Sources of Growth in Total Liquidity (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.2: Sources of Growth in Reserve Money (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)
Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

PUBLIC
Table A.3: DMB’s Credit Allocations (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.4: Performance of the GSE-CI by Sectors

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.5: Market Capitalization by Sectors

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

PUBLIC
Table A.6: Asset and Liability Structure of the Banking Sector

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.7: Credit Growth

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.8: Contingent Liabilities

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Components of Assets (% of Total)
Cash and Due from Banks

Investments

Net Advances

Others

Components of Liabilities and Shareholders' Funds (% of Total)
Total Deposits
68.9

77.5

75.5

72.3

71.3

Total Borrowings
12.2

5.8

7.1

9.6

10.4

Shareholders' Funds
10.6

9.8

10.3

12.1

12.6

Other Liabilities
8.4

6.6

6.8

5.7

5.4

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Oct-24
Oct-25
Public Sector

Private Sector

- Private Enterprises

o/w Foreign

Indigeneous

- Households

Gross Loans

Economic Sector
Gh¢million
y/y growth (%)
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Contingent Liabilities (GH¢million)
19,458.15

27,195.92

18,542.56

18,212.61

Growth (y-o-y)

% of Total Liabilities


PUBLIC
Table A.9: Distribution of Loans and NPLs by Economic Sector (%)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.10: Liquidity Ratios

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.11: Profitability Indicators (%)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


a. Public Sector

i. Government

ii. Public Institutions

iii. Public Enterprises

b. Private Sector

i. Private Enterprises

o/w Foreign

Indigeneous

ii. Households

iii. Others

Share in
NPLs
Share in
Total Credit
Share in
NPLs
y
(
)
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Share in
Total Credit
Share in
NPLs
Share in
Total Credit
Share in
NPLs
Share in
Total Credit

Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25

Liquid Assets (Core) - (GH¢'million)

67,888.76


136,712.97


116,462.20


117,066.93

Liquid Assets (Broad) -(GH¢'million)

171,375.59

254,364.64


298,343.07


298,491.42

Liquid Assets to total deposits (Core)-%
34.0 49.3 38.8 38.8
Liquid Assets to total deposits (Broad)- %
85.7 91.7 99.4 98.8
Liquid assets to total assets (Core)- %
26.3 37.2 28.0 27.7
Liquid assets to total assets (Broad)- %
66.5 69.3 71.9 70.5
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Gross Yield

Interest Payable

Spread

Asset Utilitisation

Interest Margin to Total Assets

Interest Margin to Gross income

Profitability Ratio

Return On Equity (%) after tax

Return On Assets (%) before tax


PUBLIC
Table A.12: DMBs’ Income Statement

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.13: Developments in Offshore Balances

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Interest Income
26,041.9

31,296.8

29,310.0

37,057.9

20.2

21.5
18.4
Interest Expenses
(8,538.2)

(10,589.9)

(10,117.6)

(12,651.9)

24.0

20.9
19.5
Net Interest Income
17,503.7

20,706.9

19,192.3

24,406.0

18.3

21.8
17.9
Fees and Commissions (Net)
3,776.2

4,756.3

4,146.6

5,166.4

26.0

13.1
8.6
Other Income
4,133.0

4,336.9

4,792.1

6,438.7

4.9

47.3
48.5
Operating Income
25,412.9

29,800.1

28,131.0

36,011.0

17.3

24.0
20.8
Operating Expenses
(11,038.7)

(13,357.6)

(12,459.4)

(15,615.5)

21.0

19.5
16.9
Staff Cost (deduct)
(5,356.0)

(6,652.3)

(6,457.6)

(8,200.0)

24.2

24.1
23.3
Other operating Expenses
(5,682.6)

(6,705.3)

(6,001.8)

(7,415.6)

18.0

14.8
10.6
Net Operating Income
14,374.3

16,442.5

15,671.6

20,395.5

14.4

28.0
24.0
Total Provision (Loan losses,
Depreciation & others)
(3,196.3)

(3,227.4)

(1,055.7)

(1,398.5)

1.0

(46.0)
(56.7)
Income Before Tax
11,177.9

13,215.2

14,615.9

18,997.0

18.2

42.0
43.8
Tax
(4,077.0)

(4,699.9)

(4,885.3)

(6,413.2)

15.3

34.5
36.5
Net Income
7,101.0

8,515.3

9,730.6

12,583.8

19.9

46.1
47.8
Gross Income
33,951.1

40,390.0

38,248.7

48,662.9

19.0

23.2
20.5
(GH ¢'million)
Y-o-y Growth (%)
Oct-23
Oct-24
Aug-25
Oct-25
Offshore balances as % to Networth
67.7
102.2
49.7

51.4

Annual Growth in Offshore balances (%)
4.6
125.7
(14.5)

(29.1)

Annual Growth in Nostro Balances (%)
-21.5
176.6
(11.2)

(43.3)

Annual Growth in Placement (%)
36.0
90.8
(17.0)

(14.8)