ECONOMIC REPORT
FOURTH QUARTER 2013


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page ii
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
and the private sector, as well as general readers.


Subscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations,
embassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue
without a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank
of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.

The Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iii
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iv
Economic Report Fourth Quarter


Text Tables


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page v
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Appendix Tables

Figures


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page vi
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

1.0 Summary
Available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed
that gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by
7.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with 6.8 per
cent in the preceding quarter. The development was driven, largely,
by the growth in the non-oil sector.
Broad money supply, (M2), grew by 9.1 per cent at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2013, in contrast to the 7.9 per cent decline
recorded at the end of the preceding quarter. The development
reflected, largely, the 14.9 per cent increase in domestic credit (net)
of the banking system. Similarly, narrow money supply, (M1), rose by
11.4 per cent, in contrast to the 9.3 per cent decline at the end of
the preceding quarter. Over the level at end-December 2012, broad
money supply (M2) grew by 1.2 per cent, owing largely to the 18.5
per cent increase in net domestic credit, which more than offset the
26.0 and 5.9 per cent decline in other assets (net) and foreign assets
(net) of the banking system, respectively. Reserve money (RM) rose
at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013.
Available data indicated that banks’ deposit and lending rates
generally trended upward in the fourth quarter of 2013. The spread
between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending
rates widened by 0.34 percentage point during the review quarter.
Similarly, the margin between the average savings deposit and the
maximum lending rates widened by 0.68 percentage point. The
weighted average inter-bank call rate fell by 3.23 percentage points
to 11.02 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the inter-bank funds market.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets
outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013 increased by 4.1
per cent to N6,841.5 billion, compared with the increase of 5.7 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the 4.7 and 3.9 per cent increase in FGN Bonds and
NTBs outstanding, respectively. Activities on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) in the fourth quarter 2013 were bullish as all the
major indicators trended upward.
Total federally-collected revenue at the end of the fourth quarter of
2013 was 22.3 and 19.8 per cent below the quaterly budget estimate
and the level in the preceding quarter, respectively. Oil receipts,
which constituted 69.9 per cent of the total, fell below the budget
estimate and receipts in the preceding quarter by 20.4 and 5.2 per
cent, respectively. The decline in oil receipts was attributed to the


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

fall in crude oil and gas exports during the review quarter.
Non-oil receipts was below the budget estimate and receipts in the
preceding quarter by 26.4 and 41.0 per cent, respectively. Federal
Government retained revenue was N822.19 billion, while total
expenditure was N1,423.75 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the
Federal Government resulted in an estimated deficit of N601.56
billion or 5.1 per cent of estimated nominal GDP for fourth quarter
2013, compared with the quarterly budget deficit of N221.77 billion
or 1.9 per cent of estimated GDP.
Activities in the agricultural sector were dominated by harvesting of
cash crops and root crops, preparation of land and nurseries for
vegetables and other pre-planting opertaions for dry season
farming. Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, was estimated at an average of 1.87 million
barrels per day (mbd) or 172.04 million barrels for the quarter. Crude
oil export stood at 1.42 mbd or 130.64 million barrels for the quarter,
while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained
at 0.45 mbd or 41.40 million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s
reference crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), fell by 1.4 per cent below
the level in the preceding quarter.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 8.0 per
cent, same as in the third quarter of 2013, compared with the 12.0
per cent recorded at the end of the corresponding quarter of 2012.
Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis was 9.5 per
cent, compared with 9.5 and 12.2 per cent in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$9.13 billion and US$10.48 billion,
respectively, resulting in a net outflow of US$1.35 billion during the
review quarter. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorized dealers amounted to US$9.10 billion, compared with
US$10.97 billion in the preceding quarter. The average exchange
rate of the Naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the rDAS window was
N157.32 per US dollar, indicating a marginal depreciation from its
levesls in the preceding and the corresponding period of 2012,
repsetcively. In the bureau-de-change segment of the market, the
Naira depreiciated by 3.1 per cent, while it appreciated by 1.4 per
cent at the interbank segment, compared with their levels in the
preceding period.
Available data showed that global economic activity strengthened
in the second half of 2013 largely, on account of recovery in the
advanced economies. World output was projected to have grown


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

by 3.0 per cent at the end of 2013. Rising demand in the developed
economies and rebound of export in the emerging economies were
the main drivers of increased economic activities in the fourth
quarter of 2013.
World crude oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2013 increased by
0.8 per cent above the level recorded in the preceeding quarter.
Similarly, world crude oil output increased by 0.4 per cent over the
level recorded in the preceeding quarter. The increase in demand
was attributed, mainly to improvement in the US economy and
higher demand for heating oil during the winter months. The OPEC
reference basket price of eleven selected crude streams declined
by 1.0 and 0.3 per cent below its levels in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The prices of the UK
Brent, the WTI and the Forcados exhibited similar trend.
Other major international economic developments and meetings of
importance to the domestic economy during the review quarter
included: the 2013 annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the
World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in
Washington D.C., USA from October 7-13, 2013. Also, an International
Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Nigeria from November 13 -26 to
conduct discussions for the 2013 Article IV Cconsultation.
During the review period, the Board of Directors of the African
Development Bank (AfDB) approved a loan of US$152.12 million to
finance
Nigeri’s
Agricultural
Transformation
Agneda
Support
Programme Phase 1 (ATASP-1). The AfDB also launched the 2013
African Economic Outlook on November 26, 2013 in Khatroum,
Sudan. Finally, the 9th UNCTAD Debt Management Conference and
meeting of the World Association of Debt Mangement Office
(WADMO) were held at the United Nations (UN), Geneva from
November 11 – 13, 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
Provisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary
aggregate was modest at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013.
Banks’ deposit and lending rates generally trended upward during
the review quarter. The value of money market assets outstanding
increased, due largely, to the rise in FGN Bonds and NTBs.
Transactions on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bullish
during the review quarter.
Provisional data indicated moderate growth in the major
monetary aggregate at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013.
Broad money supply, (M2), rose by 9.1 per cent to N15,668.95
billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, in contrast to
the decline of 7.9 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
development reflected largely, the 14.9 per cent growth in
domestic
credit
(net)
of
the
banking
system,
which
outweighed the 4.6 and 3.1 per cent fall in foreign assets (net)
and other assets (net) of the banking system, respectively.
Over the level at end-December 2012, broad money supply
(M2) rose by 1.2 per cent, owing largely to the 18.5 per cent
increase in net domestic credit, which more than offset the
26.0 and 5.9 per cent decline in other assets (net) and foreign
assets (net), respectively.
At N7, 012.8 billion, narrow money supply (M1) rose by 11.4 per
cent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, in contrast to the
decline of 9.3 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed, wholly, to the 23.9 and 8.6
per cent rise in its currency outside banks and demand
deposit components, respectively. Over the level at endDecember 2012, narrow money supply (M1) contracted by 5.5
per cent, due to the 9.0 per cent decline in its demand
deposit component.
Quasi money, at N8,656.1 billion, rose by 7.3 per cent, in
contrast to the decline of 6.8 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the
increase in time and savings deposits in banks. Relative to the
level at end-December 2012, quasi money grew by 7.4 per
cent (Fig. 1, Table 1).
Key monetary
aggregate grew
during Q4
2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1
-15
-10
-5

-10
-5

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)

At N15,040.7 billion, aggregate banking system‟s credit (net)
to the domestic economy, rose by 14.9 per cent at the end of
the fourth quarter of 2013, in contrast to the decline of 0.5 and
1.5 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The development
relative to the preceding quarter was due, largely, to the 54.0
and 1.4 per cent increase in claims on the Federal
Government and the private sector, respectively. Over the
level at end-December 2012, aggregate banking system‟s
credit (net) to the domestic economy, rose by 18.5 per cent,
reflecting largely the 40.1 and 9.0 per cent increase in claims
on the private sector and the Federal Government.
Banking system‟s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at
the end of the review quarter rose by 53.9 per cent to
negative N1,468.8 billion, in contrast to the 25.5 and 31.4 per
cent decline at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The development
relative to the preceding quarter was accounted for, largely,
by the increase of 29.7 per cent in Central Bank claims on the

1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).

Banking system
credit to the
Federal
Government
rose at the end
of the fourth
quarter of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Federal Government. Over the level at end-December 2012,
credit (net) to the Federal Government rose by 40.1 per cent,
reflecting largely the rise in banking system‟s holding of
Federal Government securities.
At the end of fourth quarter of 2013, banking system‟s credit to
the private sector rose by 1.4 per cent to N16,509.5 billion,
compared with the 3.7 and 2.7 per cent increase in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The development, relative to the preceding
quarter, reflected the 0.9 per cent increase in claims on the
core private sector during the review quarter. Relative to the
level at end-December 2012, banking system‟s credit to the
private sector rose by 9.0 per cent (Fig. 2, Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2


Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)

At N8,513.3 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
fell by 4.6 per cent at the end of the review quarter,
compared with the decline of 2.6 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter, but was in contrast to the 8.9 per cent
increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2012. The
development,
relative
to
the
preceding
quarter
was
attributed, to the decline in both the CBN and banks‟ holdings
of foreign assets. Over the level at end-December 2012,

2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP,
CCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

foreign assets (net) of the banking system fell by 5.9 per cent
at the end of the review quarter, compared with the decline
of 1.3 per cent at the of the preceding quarter.
Other assets (net) of the banking system fell by 3.1 per cent to
negative N7,885.0 billion, compared with the decline of 13.8
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter, but was in
contrast to the 12.1 per cent increase recorded at the end of
the corresponding quarter of 2012. The decline, relative to the
preceding quarter, reflected, largely, the fall in unclassified
assets of both the CBN and the banks during the review
period. Over the level at end-December 2012, other assets
(net) of the banking system fell by 26.0 per cent.
Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Percent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


2.2
Currency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at
the CBN
At N1,776.8 billion, currency-in-circulation rose by 20.5 per cent
at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with the
increase of 3.4 and 20.9 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively.
The development, relative to the preceding quarter was
attributed, largely, to the 23.9 per cent increase in currency
outside the banks.

Total deposits at the CBN increased by 0.2 per cent to
N7,027.4 billion, compared with the increase of 14.8 per cent
at the end of the preceding quarter. The development
reflected largely, the 19.1 and 22.6 per cent rise in the deposits
Foreign assets
(net) of the
banking system
fell at the end of
the review
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

of banks‟ and “Others”, respectively, which more than offset
the 19.0 per cent decline in the deposits of „Federal
Government. Of the total deposits, the shares of the Federal
Government, banks and „‟Others‟‟ were N2,848.6 billion (40.5
per cent), N3,782.1 billion (53.8 per cent) and N396.7 billion
(5.7 per cent), respectively.
Reserve money (RM), at N5,558.9 billion, rose by 19.5 per cent,
compared with the 43.7 per cent increase recorded in the
preceding
quarter.
The
development,
relative
to
the
preceding quarter, was attributed to the increase in currencyin- circulation and banks‟ deposit with the CBN.
2.3
Money Market Developments
Money market rates were influenced by the liquidity
conditions in the banking system. Monetary Policy stance of
the Bank remained, largely, restrictive as the Monetary Policy
Rate (MPR) was maintained at 12.0 per cent during the review
quarter. The Liquidity Ratio (L/R), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
and the Net Open Position were also retained at their
preceding quarter‟s levels of 30.0, 12.0 and 1.0 per cent,
respectively. The introduction of the 50.0 per cent CRR on all
public sector deposits continued to affect the monetary
conditions of the market. Open market operations were
conducted for various maturities, for liquidty management
purposes. The Bank‟s discount window also remained open to
authorized dealers to access both the standing deposit facility
(SDF)
and
standing
lending
facility
(SLF).
Overall,
developments in money market indicators were mixed in the
review quarter.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market
assets outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013
stood at N6,841.5 billion, showing an increase of 4.1 per cent,
compared with the increase of 5.7 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the 4.7
and 3.9 per cent increase in FGN Bonds and NTBs outstanding,
respectively, during the review period.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Available data indicated that banks‟ deposit and lending
rates generally trended upward during the fourth quarter of
2013. All rates on deposits of various maturities rose from a
Developments
in the money
market were
mixed during
the review
period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

range of 2.44 – 7.59 per cent in the third quarter to a range of
2.48 – 7.92 per cent in the fourth quarter. Similarly, at 6.64 per
cent, the average term deposit rate rose by 0.38 percentage
point above the level in the preceding quarter. The prime and
maximum lending rates increased by 0.48 and 0.72
percentage points to 17.09 and 24.93 per cent, respectively, in
the fourth quarter of 2013. Consequently, the spread between
the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending
rates widened by 0.35 percentage point to 18.30 per cent
from 17.95 per cent in the preceding quarter. Similarly, the
margin between the average savings deposit and the
maximum lending rates widened by 0.68 percentage point to
22.45 per cent from 21.77 per cent. With the headline inflation
rate at 8.0 per cent at end-December 2013, all rates, with the
exception of the lending rates, were negative in real terms.
At the interbank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 14.25 per cent at the end of the
third quarter of 2013, fell by 3.23 percentage points to 11.02
per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the banking system. Similarly, the weighted
average
rate
at
the
Open-Buy-Back
(OBB)
segment
declined to 11.07 per cent at the end of the review quarter
from 14.46 per cent in the preceding quarter. The Nigeria Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) for the 7-day and 30-day tenors,
fell to 11.54 and 12.02 per cent from 14.38 and 14.93 per cent,
respectively, in the preceding quarter (Fig. 3, Table 2).

Interbank call rate
declined in Q4 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits

Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending


2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Provisional data indicated that the value of Commercial
Paper (CP) held by the banks fell significantly by 68.3 per cent
to N9.2 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013,
compared with the value of N29.1 billion at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the
decline in investment in Commercial Paper by commercial
banks during the quarter under review. Thus, CP constituted
0.13 per cent of the total value of money market assets
outstanding, during the review period, compared with 0.44
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
The value of BAs held by banks increased by 15.6 per cent to
N28.3 billion in the review quarter, compared with N24.5 billion
at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the increase in investment in BAs by the banks
during the quarter. Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.41 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding, at
the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with 0.37 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
Investment in
CP by banks fell
in the fourth
quarter of 2013.
Banks’ holdings
of BAs increased
during Q4 of
2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
Bills of various maturities, ranging from 55 -182 days were used
for liquidity management in the fourth quarter of 2013. Total
sales amounted to N2,431.54 billion, while subscription was
N3,506.53 billion, compared with N508.74 billion and N1,512.42
billion allotted and subscribed to in the third quarter of 2013.
The bid rates ranged from 11.35 – 13.00 per cent, while the
stop rates were between 11.53 – 12.25 per cent for tenors
ranging from 55 - 227 days, compared with stop rates ranging
from 12.00 –13.20 per cent in the preceding quarter. Matured
bills amounting to N2,275.58 billion were repaid in the review
period.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day
tenors, amounting to N736.50 billion, N1,437.69 billion and
N826.50 billion, were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with the
respective sums of N739.37 billion, N1,867.04 billion and
N739.37 billion in the preceding quarter. The bid rates ranged
from 10.70 – 11.00, 9.00 – 15.46 and 10.00 - 15.05 per cent, for
the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenor, respectively, while the stop
rates ranged from 10.70 – 12.50 per cent.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
FGN Bonds of 3-, and 20-year tranches were re-opened and
auctioned during the fourth quarter of 2013. The total amount
offered, subscribed to and allotted for both tranches were
N195.00 billion, N437.08 billion and N195.00 billion, respectively,
compared with N195.00 billion, N388.51 billion and N182.73
billion recorded in the preceding quarter. The marginal rates
ranged between 12.55 – 13.26 per cent for all the tenors,
compared with the range of 13.05 – 13.79 per cent obtained
in the preceding quarter. The amount sold showed an
increase of 6.7 per cent, in contrast to the decline of 17.3 per
cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The total Standing Lending Facility (SLF) granted during the
review period was N1,445.54 billion with a daily average of
N24.09 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with
N5,757.88 billion in the preceding quarter, indicating a decline
Subscription for FGN
Bonds of various
maturities increased
during the fourth
quarter of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

of 74.9 per cent. Interest paid on SLF in the fourth quarter of
2013 stood at N 0.87 billion.
Total standing deposit facilities (SDF) granted during the
review period was N18,088.37 billion with daily average of
N301.42 billion, compared with N14,368.61 billion granted in
the third quarter. The cost incurred on SDF rose by 26.5 per
cent to N7.12 billion, compared with N5.63 billion in the
preceding quarter.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
Available data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of
the DMBs stood at N24,334.7 billion at the end of the fourth
quarter of 2013, representing an increase of 4.4 per cent over
the level at the end of the preceding quarter. The funds,
which were sourced, largely, from increased mobilization of
demand deposit and Federal Government deposit, were used
for accretion to reserves and purchase government securities.
At N12,224.8 billion, banks‟ credit to the domestic economy,
rose by 8.6 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed, largely, to the 346.9 per cent
increase in claims on the Federal Government.
Central Bank‟s credit to the banks fell by 1.6 per cent to
N229.8 billion at the end of the review quarter, reflecting the
decline in overdrafts to banks, while total specified liquid
assets of the DMBs stood at N6,614.79 billion, representing 39.5
per cent of their total current liabilities. At that level, the
liquidity ratio, rose by 1.8 percentage points above the level in
the preceding quarter, and was 9.5 percentage points above
the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-todeposit ratio, at 36.3 per cent, was 2.9 percentage points
above the level at the end of the preceding quarter, but was
43.7 percentage points below the prescribed maximum ratio
of 80.0 per cent.
2.5
Discount Houses’ Activities
Total assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N133.76
billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, indicating a
decline of 14.0 and 61.2 per cent below the levels at the end
of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012, respectively. The fall in assets relative to the preceding
At 39.5 per cent,
liquidity ratio in Q4
2013 was 9.5
percentage points
above the stipulated
minimum ratio, while
the Loan-to-deposit
ratio fell below the
prescribed maximum
of 80 per cent by
43.7 percentage
points.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

quarter was accounted for by the decrease in claims on
Federal Government and Banks which more than offset the
effect of the rise in Other Assets. Correspondingly, the fall in
total liabilities was attributed to the decline in capital and
reserves, money-at-call and other amount owed, which
exceeded the increase in other liabilities.
Discount houses‟ investment in Federal Government securities
of less than 91-day maturity declined by 4.7 per cent to N31.4
billion and represented 30.6 per cent of their total deposit
liabilities. At this level, discount houses‟ investment was 29.4
percentage points below the prescribed minimum level of
60.0 per cent for fiscal 2013. Total borrowing by the discount
houses was N40.0 billion, while their capital and reserves stood
at N18.0 billion. This resulted in a gearing ratio of 2.2:1,
compared with the stipulated maximum of 50:1 for fiscal 2013.
2.6
Capital Market Developments
2.6.1
Secondary Market
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bullish
during the fourth quarter of 2013. Available data indicated
that volume and value of traded securities rose by 19.3 and
18.9 per cent to 26.0 billion shares, valued at N234.0 billion in
286,949 deals, respectively. The financial services sector led
the activity chart as the most active on the Exchange
(measured by turnover volume) with a traded volume of 17.3
billion shares, valued at N116.9 billion in 145,624 deals,
compared with 12.6 billion shares, valued at N104.8 billion in
176,601 deals recorded in the previous quarter. The Banking
sub-sector was the most active on the activity chart.
Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)


2.6.2
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Bonds Market
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, provisional data
indicated that transactions in the Over-the-Counter (OTC)
bond market, recorded a turnover of 0.27 billion units, worth
N278.1 billion, in 1,328 deals, compared with 1.67 billion units,
worth N1.76 trillion, in 10,321 deals recorded in the preceding
quarter.
2.6.3
New Issues Market
There was one (1) new and two (2) supplementary listings in
the review quarter (see table below).
Table 4: New and Supplementary Listings on the Nigeria Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing

Infinity Trust Bank Plc
4.17 Billion shares
Ordinary Shares
New

Berger Paints Nigeria Plc
72.45 Million shares
Right Issue
Supplementary

Cadbury Nigerian Plc
1.18 Million Shares
merger
Supplementary


2.6.4
Market Capitalization
The total market capitalization of all the listed securities
(equities and debt) stood at N19.1 trillion at the end of the
quarter under review, indicating a rise of 7.9 per cent above
the
level
in
the
preceding
quarter.
Similarly,
market
capitalization for the listed equities rose by 12.8 per cent
above the level in the preceding quarter, to close at N13.2
trillion at the end of the review quarter. Listed equities
accounted for 65.1 per cent of the aggregate market
capitalization.


Total Market
capitalization and AllShare Index increasd
during Q4 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

2.6.5 NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 36,585 at the beginning
of the quarter, closed at 41,329.19, representing an increase of
13.0 per cent over the level at the end of the preceding
quarter. At end-December 2013, all the seven (7) sectoral
indices appreciated. The NSE Banking, NSE Insurance, NSE
Consumer Goods, NSE Oil/Gas, NSE Lotus Islamic, NSE Industrial
Goods and NSE ASeM indices advanced by 15.1, 10.7, 6.6,
85.9, 11.2, 15.3, and 0.0 per cent, to close at 447.84, 152.87,
1100.25, 339.88, 2863.12, 2546.59 and 962.31, respectively, at
the end of the review period.
Figure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index


Q4-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Market Capitalization (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
20,730.60

29,652.50

21,599.60

26,022.60

28,078.80

33,536.25

36,164.31

36,585.08

41,329.19


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations
3.1
Federation Account Operations
Available data showed that total federally-collected revenue
during the fourth quarter of 2013 stood at N2,201.93 billion,
representing a decline of 22.3 and 19.8 per cent below the
quarterly budget estimate and the level in the preceding
quarter,
respectively.
Relative
to
the
level
in
the
corresponding qauter of 2012, total federally-colllected
revenue fell by 10.5 per cent (Fig. 6, Table 6). The decline
relative to the level in the preceding quarter was attributed to
the fall in both oil and non-oil revenue.
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)

Oil Revenue

Non-Oil Revenue


At N1,538.40 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 69.9
per cent of the total, fell below the proportionate budget
estimate and the level in the preceding quarter by 20.4 and
5.2 per cent, respectively. The development relative to the
preceding quarter was attributed to the decline in crude oil
and gas exports during the review quarter (Fig. 7, Table 7).

Gross federally
collected
revenue fell by
19.8 per cent
below the level
in the preceding
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components
-


Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
N billion
Others
PPT/Royalties
Crude oil/Gas Sales

Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)


Non-oil receipts (gross), at N663.53 billion (30.1 per cent of the
total), was below both the proportionate budget estimate
and the level in the preceding quarter by 26.4 and 41.0 per
cent, respectively. The decline in non-oil revenue relative to
the preceding quarter was due to the fall in receipts from
components of the non-oil revenue, except customs and
excise duties as well as VAT (Fig. 8, Table 8).
As a percentage of projected fourth quarter 2013 nominal
GDP, oil and non-oil revenue were 13.0 and 5.6 per cent,
respectively.
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Oil Revenue

Crude oil/Gas Sales

PPT/Royalties

Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and its Components
-

1,000
1,200
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
N billion
Others
Customs & Excise Duties
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Table 8 Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Non-Oil Revenue

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes

Customs & Excise Duties

Others


Of the gross federally-collected revenue during the review
quarter, the sum of N1,490.14 billion (after accounting for all
deductions and transfers) was transferred to the Federation
Account for distribution among the three tiers of government
and the 13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government
received
N702.22
billion,
while
the
state
and
local
governments received N356.17 billion and N274.60 billion,
respectively. The balance of N157.15 billion went to the 13.0%
Derivation Fund for distribution to the oil-producing states.
Also, the Federal Government received N31.97 billion from the
VAT Pool Account, while the state and local governments
received N106.57 billion and N74.60 billion, respectively.
The sum of N106.65 billion was also distributed as the Subsidy
Re-Investment
and
Empowerment
Programme
(SURE-P)
among the three tiers of government and the 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: Federal Government (N48.88 billion), State
Governments (N24.79 billion), Local Governments (N19.11
billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N13.86 billion).
The sum of
N1,490.14 billion
out of the federally
collected revenue
was set aside for
distribution by the
three tiers of
government and
the 13.0 %
Derivation Fund for
oil producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

In addition, the sum of N22.85 billion from NNPC Refund was
shared by the sub-national governments and 13% Derivation
Fund as follows: State Governments (N11.23 billion), Local
Governments (N8.65 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N2.97
billion). Thus, the total allocation to the three tiers of
government in the fourth quarter of 2013 amounted to
N1,832.78 billion. This was below the 2013 quarterly budget
estimate by 11.6 per cent.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government

At N822.19 billion, the Federal Government retained revenue
for the fourth quarter of 2013 was lower than both the
proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the
preceding quarter by 33.0 and 17.4 per cent, respectively. Of
this amount, the Federal Government share from the
Federation Account, Sure-P, FGN Independent Revenue, and
VAT were N702.22 billion, N48.88 billion, N39.06 billion and
N31.97 billion, respectively (Fig. 9, Table 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue
Federation Account (85.4%)
VAT Pool
Account (3.9)
Others(5.9%)
FGN Independent
Revenue (4.8%))

Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Retained Revenue

Expenditure

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


Federal government
estimated retained
revenue and total
expenditure were lower
than the proportionate
budget estimate for the
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Total estimated expenditure for the fourth quarter of 2013
stood at N1,423.75 billion, indicating a decline of 1.7 per cent
below the quarterly budget estimate, but an increase of 25.1
per cent above the level in the preceding quarter. The
development relative to the quarterly budget estimate was
attributed to the shortfall in the capital component during the
period. A breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the
recurrent component accounted for 73.6 per cent, while
capital and statutory transfers components accounted for
19.2 and 7.2 per cent, repectively (Fig. 10). A further
breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that the nondebt component accounted for 73.9 per cent, while debt
service payments accounted for the balance of 26.1 per
cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N601.56 billion or 5.1 per cent of
GDP, compared with a proportionate budget deficit of
N221.77 billion or 1.9 per cent of the estimated GDP for the
fourth quarter of 2013.
Figure10: Federal Government Expenditure
Recurrent
Capital
Transfers
Capital
(19.2%)
Transfers
(7.2%)
Recurrent (73.6%)


3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

Total
allocation
to
state
governments
(including
the
Federation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and VAT) stood at
N672.75 billion during the review quarter. This was below both
the quarterly budget estimate and the level in the preceding
quarter by 9.0 and 6.6 per cent, respectively.
The fiscal
operations of the
FG resulted in an
estimated deficit
of N601.56 billion
in Q4 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Further breakdown showed that, at N566.18 billion, receipts
from the Federation Account constituted 84.2 per cent of the
total, indicating a decline of 9.7 and 13.3 per cent below the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively. At N106.57 billion, receipts from
the VAT Pool Account, constituted 15.8 per cent of the total,
indicating an increase of 14.2 and 20.8 per cent relative to the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter
of 2012, respectively.
On a monthly basis, the sum of N221.74 billion, N205.03 billion
and N245.98 billion was allocated as statutory allocations and
VAT receipts to the 36 state governments in October,
November and December 2013, respectively.

3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils

Total receipts by the local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts during the fourth quarter of 2013,
stood at N376.96 billion. This amount was both below the level
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012 by 8.2 and 9.7 per cent, respectively. Of the total
amount, allocation from the Federation Account was N302.36
billion (80.2 per cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for
the balance of N74.60 billion (19.8 per cent). On a monthly
basis, the sum of N123.09 billion, N115.16 billion and N138.71
billion was allocated to the 774 local governments in October,
November and December 2013, respectively.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Provisional data showed that aggregate output measured by real
gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.7 per cent in the fourth
quarter, compared with 6.8 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
development was driven, largely, by the growth in the non-oil sector.
Crude oil production was estimated at 1.87 million barrels per day
(mbd) or 172.04 million barrels for the quarter. The end-period
inflation rate for the fourth quarter of 2013, on year-on-year basis,
was 8.0 per cent, compared with 7.9 and 12.0 per cent at the end of
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. The inflation rate on a 12-month moving average basis
was 8.5 per cent, compared with 9.5 and 12.2 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively.
4.1
Aggregate Output
Provisional data showed that in the fourth quarter of 2013,
output measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), grew
by 7.7 per cent, compared with the 6.8 per cent recorded in
the preceding quarter. The development was attributed,
largely, to the growth in the contribution of the non-oil sector.
Real non-oil GDP grew at 8.7 per cent and accounted for 88.3
per cent of total GDP in the review quarter. Real oil GDP,
comprising crude petroleum and natural gas, grew by 0.3 per
cent and accounted for 11.7 per cent of GDP, in contrast to
the decline of 0.5 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter
of 2013 (Fig. 11, Table 10).
Figure 11: Real GDP Growth Rate and Share of Oil and Non-oil in GDP

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
% of GDP
Percent
Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
Non-Oil Share of GDP (RHS)
GDP Growth (LHS)
Oil GDP Growth(LHS)
Non-oil GDP Growth (LHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 10: Growth Rate of Real GDP and Sectoral Shares (Percent)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Growth Rate (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-oil

Share in Real GDP (%)
Real GDP

Oil (Crude Petroleum/Natural Gas)

Non-Oil


4.2
Agricultural Sector
Available data indicated that agricultural activities during the
fourth quarter of 2013 were dominated by harvesting of cash
and root crops. Farmers continued with the preparation of
land and nurseries for vegetables as well as pre-planting
operations for dry season farming, especially in the Northern
part of the country. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers
engaged in fattening and other management activities in
anticipation of the end of the year sales.
A total of N2,911.8 million was guaranteed to 17,318 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the fourth quarter of 2013. This represented a decline of 0.4
and 10.2 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively.
A sub-sectoral analysis of the loans guaranteed indicated that
the food crops sub-sector received the largest share of
N1,917.7 million (65.9 per cent) for 13,009 beneficiaries, mixed
crops got N418.4 million (14.4 per cent) guaranteed to 2, 176
beneficiaries, while the livestock sub-sector got N402.6 million
(13.8 per cent) for 1,397 beneficiaries. Fisheries sub-sector
received N103.4 million (3.7 per cent) for 372 beneficiaries,
while „Others‟ sub-sector got N38.2 million (1.3 per cent)
guaranteed to 194 beneficiaries. Cash crops sub-sector
received N31.6 million (1.1 per cent) guaranteed to 170
beneficiaries. Further analysis showed that all the states and
FCT benefited from the Scheme during the quarter, with the
highest and lowest sums of N268.4 million (9.2 per cent)
guaranteed to 1,011 farmers and N5.6 million (0.2 per cent)
guaranteed to 117 farmers in Taraba and Niger states,
respectively.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

At end-December 2013, the total amount released by the
CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme
(CACS) to the participating banks for disbursement stood at
N225.74 billion for 304 (three hundred and four) projects. The
beneficiaries included thirty state governments (Table 11).


4.3
Industrial Production


Industrial activities improved during the fourth quarter of 2013
relative to the level in the preceding quarter. At 139.23
(1990=100), the estimated index of industrial production rose
by 0.2 and 1.2 per cent above the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively.
The development was attributed to the increase in the
manufacturing activities during the period.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 111.2
(1990=100), rose by 0.3 and 3.6 per cent above the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The estimated capacity utilization also rose by 0.3
percentage point to 58.3 per cent during the review period.
The development was attributed to increased manufacturing
activities (Fig.12, Table 11).
Industrial activities
improved relative to
the preceding quarter
due to increased
manufactuiring
activities during Q4
2013.
Actual industrial
capacity utilization
increased by 0.3
percentage point
relative to the level in
the preceding
quarter.
Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amount Disbursed (N billion) mber of Projects/State Governme

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
41.8

Zenith Bank
34.0

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
26.1

Unity Bank Plc
22.3

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
18.2

Stanbic IBTC Bank

Access Bank Plc
11.1

Skye Bank Plc
9.6

Fidelity Bank Plc
10.9

Sterling Bank Plc
13.3

GTBank Plc
5.8

FCMB Plc.
4.8

ECOBANK
3.8

Citibank Plc

Diamond Bank Plc
2.7

Mainstreet Bank Plc

Keystone Bank

Wema Bank Plc
0.8

Enterprise Bank PLC
0.5

TOTAL
225.7

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 12: Capacity Utilization Rate

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Percent

At 146.98 (1990=100), the index of mining production fell by
0.15 and 0.23 per cent from the levels attained in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The decline in mining production during the
review quarter was accounted for by the fall in crude oil and
gas production.
At 3,500 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation rose
by 10.5 per cent, compared with the level attained in the
preceding quarter. The development was attributable to
improved output as a result of the repairs carried out on
hitherto vandalized pipelines supplying gas to power plants.
At 3,250.7 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption
rose by 22.7 per cent, compared with the level attained in the
preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the
improvements in power supply, transmission and distribution
(Fig. 13, Table 12).
Average electricity
generation and
consumption rose
during the quarter
under review.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 13: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100)

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Index
Mining
Electricity
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Table 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining

Electricity

Capacity Utilization (%)


4.4
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria‟s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.87 million barrels per
day (mbd) or 172.04 million barrels, compared with 1.93 mbd
or (177.56 million barrels) in the preceding quarter. This
represented a decline of 0.06 mbd or 3.1 per cent below the
level in the preceding quarter. Consequently, crude oil export
was estimated at 1.42 mbd or (130.64 million barrels) in the
review period, compared with 1.48 mbd or 136.16 in the
preceding quarter, thus representing a decline of 4.1 per cent.
The development was attributed to the incessant crude oil
theft in the Niger Delta. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels during the
period under review.

Crude oil and
natural gas
production
decreased by 1.4
per cent during Q4
2013.
Crude oil export
recorded a
decrease in Q4
2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

At an estimated average of US$113.11 per barrel, the price of
Nigeria‟s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), fell by 1.4
per cent below the level in the preceding quarter. The
average prices of other competing crudes, namely the U.K
Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and the Forcados also fell
to US$110.81, US$97.73 and US$112.74 per barrel from
US$112.17, US$105.93 and US$114.71 per barrel, respectively,
in the preceding quarter. At US$107.67 per barrel, the average
price of OPEC‟s basket of eleven crude streams fell by 1.0 and
0.3 per cent, below the US$108.73 and US$108.02 per barrel
recorded in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively. The fall in prices was attributed
to lower volume of refinery crude intake due to scheduled
turnarounds in al the nations‟ refineries as well as high and
continually rising US crude production (Fig. 14, Table 13).
Figure14: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket


Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Average crude oil
prices, including
Nigeria’s Bony Light
(37o API),fell in the
international crude oil
market in Q4 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

4.5
Consumer Prices3
Available
data
showed
that
the
all-items
composite
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the fourth quarter of
2013 was 152.3 (November 2009=100), representing an
increase of 2.3 and 7.9 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively. The development reflected the increase in food
prices
and
non-alcoholic
beverages,
housing,
water,
electricity, gas and other fuel, clothing and footwear,
transport, education, furnishing, household equipment and
maintenance and health.
The urban all-items CPI at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013
was 151.4 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 2.4
and 8.1 per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. Similarly, the
rural all-items CPI, at 153.3 (November 2009=100), represented
an increase of 1.5 and 7.9 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012,
respectively (Fig. 15, Table 14).
Figure15: Consumer Price Index

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural


3 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey
(NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 18th October 2010.
The general
price level rose
in Q4 2013 on
account of the
increase in the
prices of food
items and nonalcoholic
beverages etc.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Composite

Urban

Rural


The end-period inflation rate for the fourth quarter of 2013, on
a year-on-year basis, stood at 8.0 per cent, same as in the
third quarter of 2013. This indicated a decline of 4.0
percentage points below the level in the corresponding
quarter of 2012. The inflation rate on a twelve-month moving
average basis was 8.5 per cent, compared with 9.5 and 12.2
per cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively (Fig. 16, Table 15).
Figure 16: Inflation Rate

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year

Table 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


The headline
inflation (y-o-y)
remained at 8.0 per
cent in Q4 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN in the fourth quarter of 2013 fell by 23.0 and 18.3 per cent below
the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2012, respectively. Outflow through the Bank declined by 17.3 per
cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but was an increase
of 34.1 per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of
2012. Total non-oil export receipts by banks fell by 41.5 per cent
relative the level in the preceding quarter, but was an increase of
56.1 per cent over the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012.
Relative to the preceding quarter, the average Naira exchange rate
at the rDAS vis-à-vis the US dollar, depreciated marginally by 0.004
per cent to N157.32 per dollar. Similarly, at the BDC segment of the
market, the average naira exchange rate, at N167.86 vis-à-vis the
dollar, depreciated by 3.1 per cent relative to the level in the
preceding quarter. However, at the interbank segment, the average
Naira exchange rate relative to the preceding quarter appreciated
to N159.22 per dollar. The gross external reserves fell by 2.9 per cent
to US$42.85 billion from the preceding quarter’s level.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN in the fourth quarter of 2013 amounted to
US$9.13 billion, representing a decline of 23.0 and 18.3 per
cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The development
relative to the preceding quarter was attributed to the fall in
receipts from crude oil exports and non-oil components below
their respective levels in the preceding quarter. Outflow
amounted to US$10.48 billion, showing a decline of 17.3 per
cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase
of 34.1 per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter
of 2012. The development resulted in a net outflow of US$1.35
billion, compared with a net outflow of US$0.81billion recorded
in the preceding quarter but was in contrast to the net inflow
of US$3.35 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2012. The fall
in outflow relative to the preceding quarter was attributed to
the decline in all the components, except drawings on letters
of credit (Fig.17, Table 16).

Foreign exchange
inflow and ouflow
through the CBN
fell by 23.0 and
17.3 per cent,
resulting in a net
outflow of
US$1.35 billion
during Q4 of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 17: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Inflow
13,603.64

12,119.80

10,050.94

13,444.07

11,168.38

10,304.46

9,442.91

11,857.35

9,128.32

Outflow
13,395.68

9,760.50

10,118.35

8,668.74

7,817.12

6,313.04

12,500.11

12,667.33

10,481.44

Netflow
207.96

2,359.30

(67.41)

4,775.33

3,351.26

3,991.42

(3,057.20)

(809.98)

(1,353.12)


Provisonal data on aggregate foreign exchange flows
through the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to
US$34.94 billion, representing a decline of 9.7 per cent below
the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase of 15.1 per
cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012.
The development was due to reduction in inflows through
both the CBN and autonomous sources (non-oil exports). Oil
sector receipts, which accounted for 23.0 per cent of the
total, stood at US$8.03 billion, compared with the US$9.52
billion and US$10.09 billion recorded in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$1.10 billion, (3.1 per cent of
the total) fell by 53.1 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter, but was 1.9 per cent above the level in the
corresponding quarter of 2012. Autonomous inflow, which
accounted for 73.9 per cent, declined by 9.7 per cent below
the level in the preceding quarter.
Autonomous inflows
into the economy fell
by 9.7 per cent in Q4
2013 relative to the
preceding quarter.
-4,000
-2,000


Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

At US$10.91 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy decreased by 18.3 per cent below the level in
the preceding quarter, but indicated an increase of 33.8 per
cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012. The
decrease, relative to the preceding quarter, was accounted
for, mainly, by the 15.0 per cent reduction in funding of the
Retail Dutch Auction System (rDAS).
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters during the
fourth quarter of 2013 stood at US$1.54 billion, indicated a
decline of 41.5 per cent below the the level in the preceding
quarter, but an increase of 56.1 per cent above the level in
the corresponding quarter of 2012. The development relative
to the preceding qaurter was attributed, largely, to the
decline in foreign exchange receipts from all sectors. A
breakdown of the proceeds showed that agricultural
products, industrial sector, manufactured products, minerals
and food products earned US$675.45 million, US$475.32 million,
US$323.60 million, US$42.46 million, and US$26.91 million,
respectively.
The shares of agricultural products, industrial, manufactured
products, minerals and food products in non-oil export
proceeds were 43.8, 30.7, 21.0, 2.8 and 1.7 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Available data indicated that the invisible sector accounted
for the bulk (50.3 per cent) of total foreign exchange
disbursed in the fourth quarter of 2013, followed by industrial
sector (16.1 per cent). Other beneficiary sectors, in a
descending order included: mineral and oil sector (14.4 per
cent), food products (7.9 per cent), manufactured products
(7.8 per cent), transport sector (3.1 per cent) and agricultural
products (0.4 per cent) (Fig.18).
.
The invisible
sector accounted
for the bulk of the
total foreign
exchange
disbursed during
Q4 2013.
Total non-oil
export earnings by
exporters fell
significantly during
the fourth quarter
of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure18: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange


Percent of Total
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
Foreign exchange demand by the authorized dealers for the
review period was estimated at US$12.09 billion, indicating an
increase of 19.3 and 182.2 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012,
respectively. The sum of US$9.10 was sold by the CBN during
the review period, indicating a decline of 17.1 per cent below
the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase of 113.2
per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012
(Fig. 19, Table 17).
Figure 19: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
US$ billion
Forex Sales at WDAS
Forex Demand at WDAS
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Demand for foreign
exchange by
authorized dealers
rose while Supply
delined during Q4
2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Forex Sales at RDAS

Forex Demand at RDAS

Supply of Forex to BDC

Total Forex Supply(BDC and RDAS)


Under the rDAS, the average exchange rate of the Naira vis-àvis the US dollar was N157.32 per US dollar, indicating a
marginal depreciation of 0.004 and 0.003 per cent relative to
the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2012, respectively. In the bureau-de-change
segment of the market, the naira traded at an average of
N167.86 per US dollar, indicating a depreciation of 3.1 and 5.2
per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. At the interbank
segment, the Naira exchanged at an average of N159.22 to
the US dollar, indicating an appreciation of 1.4 per cent
above the level in the preceding quarter, but a depreciation
of 1.2 per cent below the level in the corresponding quarter of
2012 (Fig. 20, Table 18).
The premium between the rDAS and the bureau-de-change
rates widened from 3.4 per cent in the preceding quarter to
6.7 per cent in the review period. However, the premium
between the rDAS and interbank narrowed from 2.6 per cent
in the preceding quarter to 1.2 per cent in the review period
(Fig. 21, Table 18).
The average Naira
exchange rate vis-àvis the US dollar
depreciated at both
the rDAS and BDC
segments, while it
appreciated at the
inter-bank segment
during Q4 2013.,
relative to preceeding
quarter.
The premium
between the rDAS
and the BDC rates
widened, while it
narrowed between
rDAS and interbank
in the review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 20: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
N/US $
Average WDAS/RDAS
Average BDC
Average Interbank

Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
RDAS

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
RDAS/BDC

RDAS/Interbank


Figure 21: Exchange Rate Premium

Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Percent
WDAS/BDC
WDAS/Interbank


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

5.5
Gross External Reserves
Gross external reserves at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013
stood at US$42.85 billion, indicating a decline of 2.9 per cent
below the US$44.11 billion recorded at the end of the
preceding quarter. A breakdown of the reserves showed that
CBN reserves stood at US$36.94 billion (86.2) per cent),
Federation reserves was US$3.29 billion (7.7 per cent) and the
Federal Government reserves was US$2.62 billion (6.1 per cent)
(Fig. 22, Table 18).
Figure 22: Gross External Reserves

Table 19: Gross External Reserves (US$ million)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
External Reserves
31,740.2

35,190.8

35,412.5

40,636.8

43,830.4

47,884.1

44,957.0

44,108.5

42,847.3


Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
US$ million
Gross external
reserves declined
during the fourth
quarter of 2013.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Available data showed that global growth was strong in the
fourth qaurater of 2013 as activities and world trade reportedly
picked up. Global output was projected to have grown by 3.0
per cent in 2013, aided by broad increase in final demand in
the developed economies. In emerging economies, while
domestic demand remained generally subdued, except in
China, rebound of exports was the main driver of increased
activity. Consequently, global output was projected to reach
3.7 per cent in 2014.
Influenced by rising exports, inventory restocking and pickup in
home construction, recent data indicated that growth in the
US economy was projected to be 1.9 per cent at the end of
2013. The upward swing in inventories in the last half of 2013,
increase in final demand and recent budget agreement were
expected to promote progress into and through 2014.
Preliminary data indicated an increase in the pace of
recovery in the Eurozone as recent developemnts showed
that the Euro area was in the mode of recovery. Real GDP in
the euro-area was projected to have grown by 0.1 per cent in
the fourth quarter, just as survey-based confidence indicators
moved up further in the fourth quarter, indicating overall
continuation of the gradual recovery in economic activity.
Latest preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics
indicated that the United Kingdom economy‟s output rose by
0.7 per cent in the foruth quarter of 2013. Strongest growth
were recorded in three of the four main industrial groupings –
agriculture, production and services.
In Japan, growth was projected to be around 1.7 per cent at
the end of 2013, while the economy is expected to slow more
gradually in 2014 even as the temporary fiscal stimulus partly
offset the possible drag from the consumption tax increase in
early 2014. In China, growth rebounded in the second half of
2013, aided, largely, by acceleration in investment. The
economy grew by 7.7 per cent at the end of the third quarter
of 2013, though growth is projected to slow due to policy
measues aimed at slowing credit growth.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Whereas
many
emerging
and
developing
economies
benefited from the stronger external demand in advanced
economies and China, domestic demand remained weaker
than expected. Growth in India picked-up in the last quarter
of 2013 and was expected to firm up further on stronger
structural policies supporting investment. On the back of the
varying degrees of tighter financial conditions and policy
stance, growth in 2013 and 2014 were revised downward in
Brazil and Russia. Expected rebound in oil output in Libya also
informed downward revision of growth in the Middle East and
North Africa in 2014 , but upward revisions for 2015.
6.2 Global Inflation
The output gaps, high unemployment and sustained financial
deleveraging, especially in major developed economies
continue to tame inflation worldwide. Inflation decelerated in
the United States, remaining below 2.0 per cent, while
deflationary concerns were raised in the euro-area as
inflation dipped below 1.0 per cent. In Japan, the authorities
were able to end the two decades of deflation through series
of large expansionary policies aimed at reflating the
economy.
Sismilarly, in the developing countries and economies in
transition, inflation decelerated, except for a few (in different
regions) where inflation were over 10.0 per cent. In economies
where inflation remained high, the upward pressure could be
attributed to structural bottlenecks, rapid credit growth and
domestic food price pressure. Most countries, however,
continue to face benign inflation.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
World crude oil demand was estimated at 90.93 mbd in the
fourth quarter of 2013, representing an increase of 0.8 per cent
above the level recorded in the preceeding quarter. Similarly,
world crude oil supply was estimated at an average of 90.33
mbd, representing an increase of 0.4 per cent above the level
recorded in the preceeding quarter. The development was
attributed to improvement in economic activities, especially in
the US,as well as the increase in demand for heating oil during
the winter months.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

The OPEC Reference Basket price of eleven selected crude
streams stood at $107.67 per barrel in the fourth quarter of
2013 from $106.92 /b in the third quarter of 2013. The rise in
price was sustained by growth in world oil demand, positive
economic data from the US and China, political tensions in
several MENA regions countries and prolonged maintenance
in the North Sea.
The prices of the UK Brent, the West Texas Intermediate and
the Forcados, however, declined to close at US$110.81,
US$97.73 and US$112.74 per barrel, respectively.
6.4 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy during the
review quarter included: the 2013 Annual Meetings of the
Board of Governors of the World Bank Group and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Washington D.C.,
USA from October 7 - 13, 2013.
Similarly, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission visited
Nigeria from November 13 - 26 to conduct discussions on the
2013 Article IV Consultation. The Mission met with the Finance
and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Central Bank of
Nigeria Governor, senior government officials, members of the
Legislature, and representatives of the private sector. The
Mission noted that although the Nigerian economy continued
to perform strongly, and holds a positive outlook, risks of
possible decline in oil prices, slow pace of global economic
recovery, increased insecurity concerns and continued loss in
oil production, among others, needed to be managed.
Furthermore, the 8th Annual African Economic Conference
was held in Johannesburg, South Africa from October 28 - 30,
2013 with the theme 'Regional Integration in Africa”. The
Conference, which was jointly organized by the African
Development Bank (AfDB), the United Nations Economic
Commission for Africa (ECA) and the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP), brought together 500
decision-makers and development practitioners. Over the
three-day Conference, intense discussions were held on issues,
including the facilitation of trade; the mobility of people,


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

goods and services; political will and government leadership
in harmonizing macroeconomic policies; and the role of the
private sector in the continent's regional integration.
Moreover, the Board of Directors of the African Development
Bank approved a loan of US$ 152.12 million (UA98.78 million)
and a grant of US$ 0.38 million (UA0.25 million) to finance
Nigeria's Agricultural Transformation Agenda Support Program
Phase 1 (ATASP-1). The overall goal of the programme is to
transform agriculture into a profitable business. Its specific
objective is to sustainably increase the income of smallholder
farmers and rural entrepreneurs engaged in the production,
processing,
storage
and
marketing
of
the
selected
commodity value chains.
Also, the African Development Bank (AfDB) on November 26,
2013 launched the 12th Edition of the African Economic
Outlook in Khartoum, Sudan.
The 9th UNCTAD Debt Management Conference was held at
the United Nations (UN), Geneva from November11–13, 2013.
The objective of the Conference was to provide a platform for
developed and developing economies to explore current and
topical issues in debt management and public finance. In a
similar development, a meeting of the World Association of
Debt Management Office (WADMO) was convened along
side UNCTAD Debt Managers‟ Conference, by the Head of
the delegation from the Philippines on November 12, 2013. The
objective of WADMO was to provide a platform for indebted
countries, debt managers and Institutions to regularly
exchange experiences, know-how and information on debt
management at the international level.
Finally, the regional meeting of the National Coordinating
Committees/National Economic Policy Committees on the
ECOWAS Multilateral Surveillance Mechanism was held in
Accra, Ghana from November 25 – 29, 2013. The objective of
the meeting was to review Member States‟ economic and
financial performance during the first half of 2013 and the
Multilateral Macroeconomic Convergence as well as discuss
Stabilization
programmes
for
the
period
2014-2018.
Representatives of the ECOWAS Commission and all Member
States except Cape Verde attended the meeting.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank

DMBs

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Banks' Deposit with CBN

N billion


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
-
-
-
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/
-3.4


Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
-1.1


DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foeign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Crude

Others

Expenditure

Recurrent

Capital

Transfers

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table A4: Gross Domestic Product at 1990 Basic Prices


Q3-2012
Q4-2012
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q4-2013
Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

Real GDP

Oil GDP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Non-oil GDP

Agriculture

Industry (excluding crude petroleum/natural Gas)

Building & Construction

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Services

N billion
Relative Share (%)
Growth Rate (%)
Q1-2013 and Q2-2013 are provisional figures. Q3-2013 and Q4-2013 are projections. Source: National Bureau of Statistics


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter