ECONOMIC REPORT
FOURTH QUARTER 2018


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page ii
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
and the private sector, as well as general readers.


Subscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations,
embassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue
without a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank
of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.

The Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng
Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iii
Economic Report Fourth Quarter


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iv
Economic Report Fourth Quarter


Text Tables


Appendix Tables


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page v
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figures


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page vi
Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary policy stance in
the fourth quarter of 2018, aimed at further curbing inflationary
pressure. Broad money supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis,
grew by 8.3 per cent to N33,421.71 billion at end-December 2018,
compared with the growth of 5.1 per cent at end-September 2018.
The development reflected, wholly, the 4.5 per cent increase in
domestic credit (net) of the banking system. Over the level at endDecember 2017, broad money supply, (M3), grew by 16.6 per cent,
compared with the 7.6 per cent and 0.6 per cent growth recorded
at the end of the preceding quarter of 2018 and the corresponding
quarter of 2017, respectively. The growth in M3 was due to the 6.4
per cent and 18.5 per cent increase in domestic credit (net) and
foreign assets (net) of the banking system, respectively. On quarteron-quarter basis, narrow money supply (M1), rose by 9.2 per cent,
compared with 0.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The development was due, to the 19.4 per cent
and 7.5 increase in its currency outside banks and demand deposit
components, respectively.
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while lending
rates trended downwards in the review quarter. With the exception
of the 1-month and 3-month deposit rates which fell by 0.26 and 0.04
percentage point to 8.79 per cent and 9.43 per cent, respectively,
all other deposit rates of various maturities rose from a range of 3.68
– 10.10 per cent to 3.86 – 10.52 per cent at end-December 2018. The
average savings rate remain unchanged at 4.07 per cent, same as
at the end of the third quarter of 2018, while the average term
deposit rate rose by 0.12 percentage points to 8.63 per cent at end
of the review quarter. The average prime and maximum lending
rates declined by 0.09 percentage point and 0.18 percentage point
to 16.60 per cent and 30.75 per cent, respectively.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average term
deposits and maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.30 percentage
point to 22.12 percentage points at end-December 2018. Likewise,
the spread between the weighted average savings and the
maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.18 percentage point to 26.68
percentage points. The weighted average inter-bank call rate rose
by 4.11 percentage points to 9.93 per cent at end-December 2018.
The total value of money market assets outstanding increased by 0.4
per cent to N11,897.40 billion, at end-December 2018. The

1 Data on monetary aggregates, government spending and foreign
exchange flows are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

development
was
attributed
to
the
increase
in
banker’s
acceptances and FGN Bonds outstanding in the review quarter.
Developments on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were generally
mixed.
Federally-collected revenue, at N2,412.21 billion, in the fourth
quarter of 2018, was 27.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent lower than the
estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter, respectively. The
development relative to budget estimate was due to the shortfall in
receipts from both oil and non-oil revenue in the review quarter.
Federal Government estimated retained revenue and total
expenditure were N916.44 billion and N1,826.85 billion, respectively,
resulting in an estimated deficit of N910.41 billion in the fourth
quarter of 2018.
The cessation of rainfall in the period led to widespread dryness
across the country. Agricultural activities in the review quarter, were
dominated by harvesting of tubers, grains and vegetables. In the
livestock sub-sector, farmers continued with the breeding of poultry
birds and fattening of cattle in anticipation of end of year sales. The
end-period headline inflation, on year-on-year and 12-month
moving average bases for the review period were 11.44 per cent
and 12.10 per cent, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to
US$14.51 billion and US$14.60 billion, respectively, resulting in a net
outflow of US$0.09 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorised dealers amounted to US$9.18 billion. The average
exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar depreciated to
N306.70/US$, N364.27/US$ and N364.42/US$ at the inter-bank
segment, the Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) Window and BDC
segment respectively, in the review quarter. The external reserves
decreased by 0.2 per cent to US$42.54 billion as at December 31,
2018.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 99.98 mbd
and 99.99 mbd, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2018. Nigeria’s
crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids,
was estimated at an average of 1.86 mbd or 171.12 million barrels
(mb) in the review quarter. The average price of Nigeria’s reference
crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), was US$69.89 per barrel, compared
with US$76.50 per barrel in the third quarter of 2018.
Major international developments of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: ECOWAS sub-committee
meeting on monetary and exchange rate policy held in Lome, Togo
from October 1 – 3, 2018. The 54th Ordinary Session of the Authority


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

of Heads of States and Government of the Economic Community of
West African States (ECOWAS) was convened on December 22,
2018 in Abuja, Nigeria.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
On quarter-on-quarter basis, broad money supply (M3), grew by 8.3
per cent at end-December 2018, reflecting the 4.5 per cent increase
in domestic credit (net) of the banking system. Narrow money supply
(M1) rose by 9.2 per cent due to increase in its currency outside
banks and demand deposits components. Interest rates reflected

2 All monetary aggregate numbers are provisional and subject to revision


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

liquidity condition in the money market during the review period. The
value of money market assets outstanding rose above the level in
the preceding quarter. Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
(NSE) were generally bearish in the fourth quarter of 2018.
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
The Bank’s Monetary Policy stance remained, largely, nonexpansionary in the review period as the Monetary Policy Rate
remain unchanged at 14.00 per cent. Broad money supply
(M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, grew by 8.3 per cent to
N33,421.71 billion at end-December, 2018, compared with the
growth of 5.1 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter,
but was in contrast to the 3.9 per cent decline recorded at
the end of the corresponding period of 2017. The increase
reflected, wholly, the 4.5 per cent rise in domestic credit (net),
which more than offset the 2.2 per cent and 12.5 per cent
decline in foreign assets (net) and other assets (net) of the
banking system, respectively.
Over the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply,
(M3), grew by 16.6 per cent at end-December 2018,
compared with the growth of 7.6 per cent and 0.6 per cent at
the end of third quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period
of 2017, respectively. The development reflected the increase
of 6.4 per cent and 18.5 per cent in domestic credit (net) and
foreign assets (net) of the banking system, respectively.
Narrow money supply (M1) rose by 9.2 per cent, relative to the
level at end-September 2018. The increase reflected the 19.4
per cent and 7.5 per cent rise in currency outside banks and
demand deposits, respectively.
Over the level at end-December 2017, narrow money supply
(M1), rose by 5.2 per cent, in contrast to the 3.7 per cent
decline at end-September 2018. This was due to the 7.3 per
cent and 4.7 per cent increase in currency outside banks and
the demand deposits, respectively.
Relative to the level at end-September 2018, quasi-money
rose by 3.5 per cent to N15,327.69 billion at end-December
2018, compared with the increase of 4.9 per cent at endSeptember 2018. The development reflected the increase in
time and savings deposits of commercial banks. Relative to
the level at end-December 2017, quasi-money grew by 18.2
Grwoth in key
monetary aggregates
were significant in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

per cent at end-December 2018, compared with the 14.2 per
cent growth at end-September 2018. The growth was due to
the increase in time and savings deposits of banks (Figure 1,
Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3

Source: CBN
Aggregate credit to the domestic economy, on quarter-onquarter basis, rose by 4.5 per cent to N27,594.15 billion at endDecember 2018, compared with the increase of 3.3 per cent
at the end of the preceding quarter. The development
reflected, wholly, the 41.5 per cent increase in net claims on
the Federal Government. Over the level at end-December
2017, aggregate credit to the domestic economy grew by 6.4
per cent at end-December 2018, compared with the 1.9 per
cent growth at end-September 2018. This was due, to the 33.8
per cent and 2.0 per cent increase in net claims on the
Federal Government and claims on the private sector,
respectively.
Relative to the level at end-September 2018, net claims on the
Federal Government rose by 41.5 per cent to N4,867.58 billion
at end-December 2018, compared with the increase of 4.7

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).
-15
-10
-5

-15
-10
-5

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM3 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM3 (LHS)
Banking system’s
credit to the Federal
Government rose in
the review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

per cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development was due mainly to the 28.1 per cent increase in
Federal Government securities held by banks during the
review quarter. Over the level at end-December 2017, net
claims on the Federal Government rose by 33.8 per cent, in
contrast to the decline of 5.4 per cent at end-September
2018.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system’s credit to the
private sector fell by 1.1 per cent to N22,726.57 billion at endDecember 2018, in contrast to the increase of 3.1 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter. The development was as a
result of the 2.1 per cent decline in claims on core private
sector. Over the level at end-December 2017, banking
system’s credit to the private sector grew by 2.0 per cent,
compared with the 3.0 per cent growth at end-September
2018. This was due to the 2.0 and 0.6 per cent increase in
claims on core private sector and claims on state and local
government, respectively (Figure 2,Table 1).


Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy4

4 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP, CCG


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system fell by 2.2 per cent
to N18,397.82 billion at end-December 2018, in contrast to the
growth of 2.6 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed to the 59.8 per cent and 0.5
per cent decrease in foreign asset holdings of merchant
banks and the CBN, respectively. Over the level at endDecember 2017, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
grew by 18.5 per cent at end of fourth quarter 2018,
compared with the growth of 21.2 per cent at end-September
2018, due to the increase of 20.1 per cent in the foreign assets
holdings of the CBN.
Relative to the level at end-September 2018, other assets (net)
of the banking system fell by 12.5 per cent to negative
N12,570.23 billion, compared with the decline of 1.3 per cent
at the end of the third quarter of 2018. This was attributed to
the decrease in unclassified assets of CBN and banks. Over
the level at end-December 2017, other assets (net) of the
banking system grew by 1.7 per cent at end-December, in
contrast to the 12.5 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter.


Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over
Preceding Quarter


-30
-20
-10

Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system fell at the
end of the review
period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the
CBN

Currency-in-circulation (CIC) at end-December 2018, rose by
20.9 per cent to N2,329.71 billion, compared with the growth
of 1.4 per cent at end-September 2018. The development
relative to the preceding quarter reflected, mainly, the 19.4
per cent and 7.5 per cent increase in its currency outside
banks and demand deposit components, respectively.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N15,703.93 billion at
end-December 2018, indicating a 6.5 per cent increase
above the level at end-September 2018. The increase was
attributed to 13.0 per cent and 9.5 per cent rise in the deposits
of the private sector and Federal Government, respectively.
Of the total deposits at the CBN, the shares of the Federal
Government, banks and private sector deposits were 49.6 per
cent, 30.6 per cent and 19.8 per cent, respectively.
Reserve money rose by 4.9 per cent to N7,135.73 billion at
end-December 2018, compared with the increase of 7.0 per
cent at end-September 2018. The development reflected the
increase in total bank reserves.
2.3
Money Market Developments
The money market was generally stable in the fourth quarter
of 2018. Liquidity was buoyed by inflow from fiscal injections,
Federal Government (FGN) Bonds, Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs)
and maturing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bills. Outflow,
such as sale of CBN bills, FGN securities and provisioning and
settlement for foreign exchange purchases, impacted on
The money market
was relatively stable
during the review
period.
Reserve money (RM)
rose at the end of the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

market liquidity. Overall, banks continued to access the intraday and standing facilities window to meet their short-term
liquidity needs during the review quarter.
Total value of money market assets outstanding at the end of
the fourth quarter of 2018 was N11,897.40 billion, showing an
increase of 0.4 per cent, compared with 1.4 per cent increase,
at the end of the third quarter of 2018. The increase was as a
result of the 12.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent increase in
bankers’
acceptances
and
FGN
Bonds
outstanding,
respectively, during the review quarter.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Interest rates reflected the liquidity condition in the money
market during the review period. Developments in banks’
deposit rates were mixed, while lending rates trended
downwards in the fourth quarter of 2018. With the exception
of the 1-month and 3-month deposit rates, which fell by 0.26
and 0.04 percentage points to 8.79 per cent and 9.43 per
cent, respectively, all other deposit rates of various maturities
rose from a range of 3.68 – 10.10 per cent to 3.86 – 10.52 per
cent at end-December 2018. The average savings rate remain
unchanged at 4.07 per cent, same as at the end of the third
quarter of 2018, while the average term deposit rate rose by
0.12 percentage point to 8.63 per cent at end-December
2018.
The average prime and maximum lending rates declined by
0.09 percentage point and 0.18 percentage points to 16.60
per cent and 30.75 per cent, respectively. Consequently, the
spread between the weighted average term deposits and
maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.30 percentage point
to 22.12 percentage points at end-December 2018. Likewise,
the spread between the weighted average savings and the
maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.18 percentage point
to 26.68 percentage points. The weighted average inter-bank
call rate rose by 4.11 percentage points to 9.93 per cent at
end-December 2018. With the headline inflation at 11.44 per
cent at end-December 2018, all deposit rates were negative
in real terms, while lending rates were positive.
At the inter-bank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 5.83 per cent at endInterest rates reflected
the liquidity condition
in the money market in
the review period.
Inter-bank call rate
rose in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

September 2018, rose by 4.11 percentage points to 9.93 per
cent at end-December 2018. Similarly, the Nigeria inter-bank
offered rate (NIBOR) for the 30-day tenor rose to 13.09 per
cent at end-December 2018 from 12.63 per cent at endSeptember 2018. Also, the weighted average rate at the
Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment rose by 1.72 percentage
points to 10.65 per cent at the end of the review quarter
(Figure 3, Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Source: CBN
Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial
Paper
(CP)
outstanding
held
by
banks,
amounted to N15.12 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2018,
showing a decrease of 35.2 per cent, compared with N23.33
billion recorded at end-September 2018. The increase was
due to the rise in investments in CP by merchant banks during
the review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.1 per cent of the
total value of money market assets outstanding during the
review period, compared with 0.2 per cent in the preceding
quarter.

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N12.12
billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, showing an increase of
12.5 per cent, compared with N10.77 billion recorded at the
end of the third quarter of 2018. The development was
attributed to investments in BAs by commercial banks during
the review quarter. Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.1 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding at
end-December 2018, compared with 0.09 per cent at the end
of the preceding quarter.

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
The Bank sustained its intervention through direct Open Market
Operations (OMO) auctions during the review quarter. The
tenors to maturity of the instruments ranged from 87 days to
364 days. Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted
were N8,918.23 billion, N5,690.10 billion and N5,670.61 billion,
respectively. The bid rates ranged from 11.25 per cent to 15.00
per cent, while the stop rates ranged from 11.25 per cent to
15.00 per cent. Repayment of matured CBN bills amounted to
N5,750.99 billion, translating to a net injection of N80.38 billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364day tenors, amounting to N705.26 billion, N1,581.84 billion and
N705.26 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, at the auctions held in the fourth quarter of 2018,
on behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total
subscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were N51.56
billion and N50.98 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged
from 10.60 per cent to 13.00 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 10.90 per cent to 10.98 per cent. The bid to cover
ratio was 1.01
For the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were
N222.74 billion and N130.45 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 11.50 per cent to 14.00 per cent, while the stop
rates ranged from 12.10 per cent to 13.49 per cent. The bid to
cover ratio was 1.71. Total subscription and allotment at the
364-day auction were N1,307.53 billion and N523.83 billion,
respectively, with bid rates ranging from 12.50 per cent to
18.00 per cent, while stop rates ranged from 13.33 per cent to
Banks’ holdings of
BAs increased in
Q4 of 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

14.45 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was 2.50.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
Tranches of the 5- 7-, and 10-year FGN Bonds were offered for
sale in the fourth quarter of 2018. The term to maturity of the
bonds ranged from 4 years, 4 months to 9 years, 4 months.
Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted were
N300.00 billion, N340.30 billion and N133.35 billion, respectively.
The bid rates on all tenors ranged from 12.98 per cent to 16.70
per cent, while the marginal rates were from 15.00 per cent to
15.83 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was 1.13. There was no
allotment on non-competitive basis, as well as, repayment in
the fourth quarter.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The banks continued to access the CBN’s Standing Facilities
window to square up their positions either by borrowing from
the standing lending facility (SLF) window or depositing excess
reserves at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window of the
CBN at the end of each business day. Total request for the
Standing Lending Facility (SLF) inclusive of Intra-day lending
facilities (ILF) that was converted to overnight repo during the
review quarter stood at N3,702.73 billion, compared with
N977.54 billion in the preceding quarter. Daily average
transaction value amounted to N62.73 billion in 59 transaction
days, with total interest earned at N2.57 billion, compared with
the daily average of N18.80 billion in 52 transaction days, with
total interest earned of N0.62 billion at the end of the
preceding quarter.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N4,407.04 billion, with daily average of N75.99
billion, compared with N5,787.67 billion, in the third quarter of
2018. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quarter
amounted to N1.56 billion, compared with N2.09 billion in the
preceding quarter.

2.4
Commercial Banks’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of commercial banks stood at
N37,136.23 billion at end-November 2018, representing 0.4 per
cent decrease below the level at end-September 2018. Funds
were sourced, largely, from foreign liabilities, draw down on
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were offered for sale in
the Q4 of 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

reserves and acquisition of credit from Central Bank. The funds
were used, mainly, for payment of matured demand deposits,
and settlement of claims on Central Bank and Federal
Government.
At N19,752.17 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy,
at end-November 2018 showed an increase of 2.0 per cent
above the level at end-September 2018. The development
reflected, the 9.0 per cent and 32.8 per cent rise in claims on
the Federal Government and state and local governments,
respectively, which more than offset the decline in claims on
other private sector in the review period.
Total specified liquid assets of the banks was N12,160.76 billion
at end-November 2018, representing 56.8 per cent of the total
current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio was 3.0
percentage points below the level at end-September 2018,
but 33.42 percentage points above the stipulated minimum
ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 65.04 per
cent, was 0.13 percentage points and 14.96 percentage
points lower than the level at end-September 2018 and the
prescribed maximum of 80.0 per cent, respectively.
2.5
Capital Market Developments
2.5.1
Secondary Market
Market sentiments remained generally uncertain due to
investors’ strong profit-taking and capital flow reversals on
account of higher interest rates in the United States. However,
the effects on the market were moderated by the release of
third quarter earnings by some companies. Consequently,
volatility in
the
market continued,
leading
to
mixed
developments on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in the
fourth quarter of 2018. The aggregate volume and value of
traded securities rose by 16.6 per cent and 3.0 per cent to 18.9
billion shares and N211.2 billion in 196,065 deals, compared
with 16.3 billion shares and N205.0 billion in 216,568 deals,
recorded in the third quarter of 2018.
Activities in the Financial Services sector (measured by
volume) led the chart with 14.0 billion shares, valued at N127.1
billion, traded in 103,117 deals, compared with 11.61 billion
shares, valued at N125.4 billion, traded in 123,868 deals in the
third quarter of 2018. This constituted 73.1 per cent and 60.2
Liquidity ratio was
above the prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit ratio
was below the
prescribed maximum
in September of
2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

per cent of the total volume and value of traded securities,
compared with 71.3 per cent and 61.2 per cent, respectively,
in the third quarter of 2018. The banking sub-sector (measured
by volume) was the most active in the review quarter.
Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)
112.8

360.4
339.4 439.7

Source: NSE
2.5.2
New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings
There was no new and supplementary equity listing in the
fourth quarter of 2018.

2.5.3
Market Capitalisation
Heightened volatility, on account of the general uncertainties,
and persistent profit-taking dampened the performance of
quoted securities on the Nigeria Stock Exchange during the
review period. The aggregate market capitalisation of all
listed securities (Equities and Debts) fell by 1.8 per cent from
N22.3 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2018, to N21.9
trillion at end of fourth quarter 2018. Similarly, market
capitalisation of the equities segment fell by 1.7 per cent to
N11.7 trillion and constituted 53.4 per cent of the aggregate
market capitalisation, compared with N11.9 trillion and 53.4

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

per cent at end of third quarter 2018.
2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
Developments in the sectoral indices reflected a decline in
the performance of quoted stocks on the Exchange in the
review period. The All-Share Index fell by 4.1 per cent to close
at 31,430.50 in the fourth quarter of 2018, below the level in
the third quarter of 2018. Developments in the sectoral indices
were, however, generally mixed in the review period. The NSEOil and Gas and NSE-Insurance indices rose by 5.1 per cent
and 1.0 per cent, respectively, to 302.23 and 126.48 above the
levels at end-December, 2018. The NSE-Industrial, NSEPremium, NSE-Banking, NSE-Pension, NSE-Consumer Goods,
NSE-Lotus, and NSE-AseM fell by 19.0 per cent, 6.8 per cent, 3.0
per cent, 1.5 per cent, 1.3 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 0.5 per
cent to close at 1,237.88, 2,195.03, 398.94, 1,207.46, 748.83,
2,233.95 and 793.81 below the levels at the end of the
preceding quarter of 2018, respectively.


Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Source: NSE
Table 4: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Market Capitalization (N trillion)
16.2
16.5


All-Share Index (Equities)
26,874.62

25,516.34

33,117.48

35,439.98

38,243.19

41,504.51

38,278.55

32,766.37

31,430.50

Source: NSE


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations5
Federally collected revenue in the fourth quarter of 2018 fell
below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate and
preceding quarter by 27.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent,

5 All figures on government revenue and expenditure are provisional and subject to changes\


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

respectively. Federal Government retained revenue for the
review quarter was N916.44 billion, while total estimated
expenditure amounted to N1,826.85 billion, resulting in an
estimated deficit of N910.40 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
At N2,412.21 billion, federally-collected revenue in the fourth
quarter of 2018, was lower than the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate of N3,321.36 billion by 27.4 per cent. It also,
fell below the receipts in the preceding quarter by 4.8 per
cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue (gross)
relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was
attributed to the shortfall in receipts from both oil and non-oil
revenue components during the review period (Figure 6, Table
5).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue


Table 5: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
2,043.73

2,135.46

2,362.14

2,534.68

2,412.21

Oil Revenue
1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

1,465.31

Non-Oil Revenue
817.70

847.40

964.08

1,140.49

946.90

Source:Federal Ministry of Finance

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
N'Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross federally -
collected
revenue fell by
27.4 per cent
below the
proportionate
budget estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

* All figures are provisional

Gross oil receipt, at N1,465.31 billion or 60.7 per cent of the
total revenue, was below the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate by 23.7 per cent, but higher than receipts in the third
quarter of 2018 by 5.1 per cent. Despite the increase in crude
oil price, oil revenue declined relative to the proportionate
budget owing to shortfalls in crude oil production and exports,
arising from maintenance at various NNPC terminals (Figure 7,
Table 6).

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 6: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Oil R evenue Gro ss
1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

1,465.31

Crude oil/Gas Sales
236.69

98.21

109.32

104.49

103.62

PPT/Royalties
666.10

926.33

841.03

914.56

1,044.17

Others
323.24

263.51

447.71

375.14

317.52

Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
Non-oil revenue, at N946.90 billion or 67.6 per cent of the total,
was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of
N1,400.74 billion and the level in the preceding quarter by 32.4
per cent and 17.0 per cent, respectively. The lower non-oil
revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate was due to the shortfalls in receipts from Federal
Government Independent Revenue and VAT in the review
period (Figure 8, Table 7).

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
N'Billion
Crude oil/Gas Sales
PPT/Royalties
Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Non-Oil Revenue
817.70

847.40

964.08

1,140.49

946.90

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
253.46

277.26

264.00

279.69

276.41

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
297.56

256.86

315.14

510.79

347.15

Customs & Excise Duties
169.05

158.42

169.60

181.06

196.37

Others/1
97.64

154.87

215.34

168.95

126.98

1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies
(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of finance
* All figures are provisional

After statutory deductions and transfers of N288.34 billion and
N392.33 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,731.54 billion was
retained in the Federation account and shared among the
three ties of government. Of this amount, the Federal
Government received N828.66 billion, while State and Local
governments received N420.31 billion and N324.04 billion,
respectively. The balance of N158.54 billion was transferred to
the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among the oil
prodcuing states.
In addition, the Federal Government received N39.80 billion,
while the State and Local governments received N132.67
billion and N92.87 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool
Account.

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
N'Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Others
The sum of N 1,731.54
billion
of
the
gross
federally-collected
revenue was distributed
among the three tiers of
government
and
the
13.0% Derivation Fund
for oil producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 8: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (Naira Billion)*
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Total Deductions 1/
376.63

117.24

287.28

396.91

288.34

Oil Rev enue Deductions

Non-Oil Rev enue Deductions

Total Transfers
340.96

421.32

468.78

437.45

392.33

Federal Gov t. Ind. Rev enue

VAT Pool Account

Others 2/

1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions
2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
The sum of N4.40 billion was shared as non-oil excess revenue
from which the Federal Government received N2.32 billion,
while the state and local governments received N1.18 billion
and N0.91billion, respectively. In addition, Exchange Gain,
amounting to N2.14 billion was shared as follows: Federal
Government, N1.00 billion; state governments, N0.51 billion;
and local governments, N0.39 billion. The balance of N0.24
billion was transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for
distribution among the oil-producing states. Furthermore, the
sum of N70.00 billion was shared as Excess crude/PPT Revenue
from which Federal, State and Local governments received
N32.08 billion, N16.27 billion, and N12.55 billion, respectively.
The balance of N9.10 was distributed among the oilproducing states.
Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the
three tiers of government in the fourth quarter of 2018
amounted
to
N2,073.43
billion,
compared
with
the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,829.08 billion.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government
Federal Government retained revenue for the fourth quarter
of 2018 was estimated at N916.44 billion. This was below the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate and the receipts in
the preceding quarter by 51.5 per cent and 11.5 per cent,
respectively. Of the total revenue, Federation Account
accounted for 90.4 per cent, while VAT, Excess crude/PPT,
Federal Government Independent Revenue, Excess Non-oil
and Exchange Gain accounted for 4.3, 3.5, 1.4, 0.3 and 0.1
per cent, respectively (Figure 9).
At N916.44 billion, the
estimated FGN retained
revenue was 51.5 per
cent
lower
than
the
proportionate
quarterly
budget estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue


Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Retained Revenue
748.56

884.88

1,125.31

1,035.72

916.44

Expenditure
1,957.94

2,015.60

1,630.11

1,890.80

1,826.85

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(631.34)

(509.45)

(158.75)

(549.62)

(688.14)

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(743.69)

(426.27)

(136.00)

(114.10)

(169.57)

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,209.38)

(1,130.72)

(504.80)

(855.09)

(910.40)

Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General
of the Federation
*All figures are provisional
The estimated Federal Government expenditure for the fourth
quarter of 2018 stood at N1,826.85 billion and was below the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,376.93 billion
by 23.1 per cent and the level in the preceding quarter by 3.4
per cent. A breakdown of the total expenditure showed that
the recurrent component accounted for 87.8 per cent, while
capital and statutory transfers accounted for 5.9 and 6.3 per
cent, repectively. A further breakdown of the recurrent
expenditure
showed
that
the
non-debt
component
accounted for 53.8 per cent, while debt service payments
was 46.2 per cent (Figure 10).
Federation
Acct.
90.4%
VAT Pool Acct.
4.3%
FGN Ind. Rev.
1.4%
Exchange Gain
0.1%
Excess Crude
3.5%
Excess Non-Oil
0.3%


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure

Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N910.41 billion, compared with the
proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N488.62 billion.
3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
At N738.81 billion, the total allocation to state governments
from the Federation Account, including the 13.0% Derivation
Fund and the VAT Pool Account was lower than the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 30.4 per cent. A
breakdown showed that receipts from the Federation
Account was N606.14 billion (82.0%), while the share from VAT
pool account stood at N132.67 billion (18.0%). The receipts
from both the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below
the proportionate budget estimate by 30.9 and 28.4 per cent,
respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts in the fourth quarter of 2018 stood at
N430.75 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate by 26.8 per cent. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N337.88 billion
(78.4%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N92.87 billion
(21.6%).


4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
The cessation of rainfall led to widespread dryness across the
Recurrent
87.8%
Capital 5.9%
Transfers 6.3%
Fiscal operations of
the FG resulted in an
estimated deficit of
N910.41 billion in Q4
2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

country. Agricultural activities in the review quarter, were dominated
by harvest of tubers, grains and vegetables. In the livestock subsector, farmers continued with the breeding of poultry birds and
fattening of cattle in anticipation of end of year sales. End-period
headline inflation, on year-on-year and 12-month moving average
bases for the fourth quarter of 2018 stood at 11.44 and 12.10 per
cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
The cessation of rainfall led to widespread dryness of severeto-extreme intensity across the country in fourth quarter of
2018. Generally, the predominant agricultural activities during
the review quarter were the harvesting of tubers, grains and
vegetables. Pre-planting operations in preparation for dry
season planting commenced. In the livestock sub-sector,
farmers engaged in the fattening of cattle and stocking of
broilers to take advantage of yuletide season sales.
4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
A total of N852.15 million was guaranteed to 5,454 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the fourth quarter of 2018. The amount represented a
decrease of 40.1 per cent and 5.9 per cent below the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. Sub-sectoral analysis showed that food crops got
the largest share, amounting to N369.54 million (43.4%),
guaranteed to 2,373 beneficiaries; followed by mixed crop
sub-sector,
which
received
N162.75
million
(19.1%),
guaranteed to 1,710 beneficiaries N138.44 million (16.2%) was
guaranteed
to
livestock
sub-sector
in
favour
of

beneficiaries; while cash crop, Fisheries and “others” subsectors got N105.28 million (12.4%), N58.82 million (6.9%), and
N17.32 million (2.0%), guaranteed to 542, 175 and 90
beneficiaries, respectively.
Analysis by state showed that 30 states and the Federal
Capital Territory benefited from the Scheme with the highest
and lowest sums of N95.83 million (11.3 per cent) and N1.99
million (0.2 per cent) guaranteed to Ogun and Bayelsa states,
respectively.

4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
As at November 19, 2018, the total amount released by the


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme
(CACS) from inception to the participating banks for
disbursement stood at N596.44 billion for 576 projects. Of the
total number of projects, 34 were in respect of state
governments (Table 10).


4.4
Industrial Production6
Activities in the industrial sector showed improvements during
the fourth quarter of 2018, on account of expansion in the
manufacturing activities due to increased employment,
output and new orders in the manufacturing sub-sector.
Slowdown in prices of input also contributed to increased
activities. Thus, industrial production in the review quarter
indicated a marginal increase over the level in the preceding
quarter. At 119.1 (2010=100), the estimated index of industrial
production in the review quarter, rose by 1.7 per cent above
the level in the preceding quarter. The increase reflected,
improved activities in all sub-sector of the industy.
The estimated index of manufacturing production in the fourth
quarter of 2018, at 188.6 (2010=100), showed a marginal
increase of 3.2 per cent, when compared with the level in the
preceding quarter. Capacity utilisation was estimated at 55.0
per cent showing a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage point

6 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision
Industrial activities
improved in the
review quarter due to
increased new orders
and slowdown in
input prices.
Industrial capacity
utilisation stood at
55.0 per cent in the
review quarter.
Table 10: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amt Disbursed (N billion)
Number of Projects

Access Bank Plc
36.66

Citibank Plc
3.00

Diamond Baqnk Plc
4.85

ECOBANK
6.38

FCMB Plc.
18.53

Fidelity Bank Plc
21.67

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
50.49

GTBank Plc
39.85

Heritage Bank Plc
6.82

Keystone Bank
30.05

Jaiz Bank Plc
0.50

Skye Bank Plc
13.77

Stanbic IBTC Bank
27.66

Sterling Bank Plc
72.17

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
28.91

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
83.06

Unity Bank Plc
25.18

Wema Bank
2.89

Zenith Bank
122.16

Suntrust Bank Ltd
1.85

TOTAL
596.44

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

over the level in the preceding quarter. The improvement was
due to continued expansion in consumer demand and
moderated input prices (Figure11).
Figure11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Source: Staff Estimate

At 89.1 (2010=100), the estimated index of mining production
in the fourth quarter of 2018, rose by 0.1 per cent, above the
level at end-September 2018. The
rise reflected the
improvement in crude oil and gas production (Figure 12, Table
12).
Electricity generation improved during the review quarter. At
2,735.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity generation rose
by 1.15 per cent, when compared with the level at the end of
the third quarter of 2018. The increase was attributed to the
improved gas supply to thermal stations and higher water
level at the hydro stations.
At 2,490.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity consumption
rose by 1.14 per cent, above the level at the end of the
preceding quarter. The increase in electricity consumption
was attributed to increased electricity generation.

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Percent
Average electricity
generation and
consumption improved
in the review quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 12: Index of Industrial Production (2010=100) 7

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

Table 11: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation Rate

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining
69.63
79.8

73.7
89.1
Capacity Utilisation (%)

Source: Staff Estimate
4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.86 mbd or 171.12 million barrels
(mb) during the review quarter. This represented an increase
of 2.2 per cent, compared with 1.82 mbd or 167.44 million
barrels at the end of the third quarter of 2018. The estimated
increase in production was attributed, largely, to gains from
sustained partnership with government and stakeholders in
the Niger-Delta region and the security measures put in place
to forestall production disruption and losses through pipeline
vandalism.
Crude oil export averaged 1.41 mbd or 129.7 mb, representing
an increase of 2.9 per cent above 1.37 mbd or 126.0 mb in the
preceding quarter. Allocation of crude oil for domestic

7 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015
Crude oil and natural
gas production rose in
the fourth quarter of
2018.
Crude oil export
rose in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels during the
period under review.
The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the
Bonny Light (37° API), fell to US$69.89/b in the fourth quarter
2018, from US$76.50/b in the preceding quarter. This
represented quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.6 per cent. The
fall in oil price was attributed mainly, to supply glut in the
global market, particularly rising U.S. crude oil inventories. The
UK Brent at US$68.41/b, WTI at US$53.59/b and the Forcados at
US$69.96/b exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light.
The average price of OPEC basket of fifteen selected crude
streams was US$67.98/b in the fourth quarter of 2018. This
represented a decrease of 8.3 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter but an increase of 14.5 per cent above the
level in the corresponding period of 2017 (Figure 13, Table 12).
Figure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket
Average crude oil prices,
including Bonny Light
(37° API) fell in the
international crude oil
market in Q4 2018,.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

4.6
Consumer Prices8
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at endDecember 2018, was 274.6 (November 2009=100), indicating
a 2.3 per cent and 11.4 per cent increase over the levels in the
third quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. The development was attributed to increase in
both food and non-food categories.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) was 278.5 at
end-December 2018, representing 2.4 per cent and 11.7 per
cent increase, compared with the levels at end-September
2018 and end-December 2017, respectively. The rural all-items
CPI (November 2009=100), was 271.4 at end-December 2018,
representing 2.2 per cent and 11.2 per cent increase,
compared with the levels at end-September 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 14, Table
14).
The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent in
the CPI basket) was 296.6 at end-December 2018, compared
with 289.0 and 261.0, at the end of the preceding quarter and
the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The price
increase was attributed to hike in prices during the yuletide
celebrations.
Figure 14: Consumer Price Index

Source: NBS


8 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the
2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH October 2010. All values are staff estmates.

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural
The general price level
increased in Q4 2018
over the level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Composite

Urban


278.5
Rural


Headline inflation stood at 11.44 per cent at end-December
2018, compared with the 11.28 per cent and 15.37 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. This reflected the rise in prices of
selected food items, fuel and lubricants for personal transport
equipment and solid fuels, among others.

The Twelve-Month Moving Average (12MMA) inflation for
December 2018 stood at 12.10 per cent, compared with
13.20 per cent and 16.50 per cent in the preceding quarter
and corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 15,
Table 15).
Figure 15: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS
Table 14: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year

Source: NBS


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year
The headline inflation
(y-o-y) stood at 11.44
per cent in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments9
Foreign exchange inflow through the CBN in the fourth quarter of
2018 rose by 12.3 per cent, while outflow fell by 13.8 per cent,
relative to the levels in the third quarter of 2018. Total non-oil export
proceeds received through banks rose by 22.5 per cent above the
level at end-September 2018. The average exchange rate at the
investors’ and exporters’ window, the BDC and the inter-bank
segment of the foreign exchange market were N364.27/US$,
N362.52/US$ and N306.70/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At
US$42.54 billion, the gross external reserves fell by 0.2 per cent,
compared with the level at end-September 2018.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Favourable international price and increased domestic
production of crude oil strengthened the external sector in the
fourth quarter of 2018. Consequently, aggregate foreign
exchange inflow through the CBN amounted to US$14.51
billion, and indicated 12.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent increase
over
the
levels
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The increase
reflected the rise in both oil and non-oil receipts, including
proceeds from government debts, TSA, third party receipts,
interest on reserves and investments, unutilised funds from
foreign exchange transactions, unutilised IMTO funds and
other official receipts.
Aggregate outflow through the CBN, fell to US$14.60 billion,
from US$16.94 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, but
increased above the US$8.38 billion recorded in the
corresponding period of 2017. The decline in outflow relative
to the preceding quarter, reflected the fall in inter-bank
utilisation, external debt service, forex special payment and
SDR charges. Overall, a net outflow of US$0.09 billion was
recorded through the Bank, compared with US$4.02 billion in
the preceding quarter and a net inflow of US$5.94 billion in the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 16, Table
15).

9 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign
exchange utilisation are provisional and subject to change
Foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN rose,
while outflow
decreased, resulting in a
net outflow of US$0.09
billion in Q4 of 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN
S
o
u
r
c
e
:

C
B
N
T
a
b
l
e

15: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Inflow
6,597.73

9,355.29

11,984.05

14,708.45

14,159.09

13,822.78

12,949.01

14,512.91

Outflow
3,646.89

9,048.62

9,343.06

8,444.27

9,652.66

13,290.53

16,931.36

14,600.13

Netflow
2,950.84

306.67

2,640.99

6,264.18

4,506.43

532.25

(3,982.36)

(87.22)


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy
amounted to US$27.64 billion at end-December 2018,
indicating an increase of 2.8 per cent and 7.1 per cent,
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
was as a result of the 12.3 per cent increase in inflow through
the Central Bank of Nigeria. Oil sector receipts, which
accounted for US$3.02 billion, indicated a decrease of 14.5
per cent below the level at the end of preceding quarter but
an increase of 9.2 per cent above the level at the end of the
corresponding period of 2017.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$11.49 billion (41.6 per cent
of the total), rose by 22.5 per cent above the level at the end
of the third quarter of 2018, but declined by 0.6 per cent,
below the level in the corresponding period of 2017.
Autonomous inflow, at US$13.13 billion, fell by 6.1 per cent and
14.8 per cent below the levels at the end of the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
-10,000
-5,000


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous inflow
into the economy fell
by 6.1 per cent in Q4
2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Inflow from autonomous sources accounted for 47.5 per cent
of the total.
At US$15.54 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy fell by 12.7 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter, but was 69.0 per cent higher than the level
in the corresponding period of 2017. The development,
relative to the preceding quarter was driven, mainly, by 13.8
per cent decline in outflow through the CBN. Thus, foreign
exchange flows through the economy resulted in a net inflow
of US$12.10 billion in the review quarter, compared with
US$9.09 billion and US$20.54 billion in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks
during the review period amounted to US$1.16 billion,
representing an increase of 1.5 per cent and 85.9 per cent
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter in 2017, respectively. The development
was due, mainly, to the respective increases of 39.1 per cent,
3.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent in earnings from foods products,
industrial, and minerals sub-sectors. A breakdown by sectors
showed that proceeds were: minerals, (US$657.80 million);
manufactured
products,
(US$195.65
million);
agricultural
sector, (US$164.74 million); industrial sector, (US$109.51 million);
and food products, (US$36.43 million).
The percentage shares of minerals, manufactured products,
agricultural products, industrial sector and food products in
the total non-oil export proceeds were 56.5 per cent, 16.8 per
cent, 14.2 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 3.1 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Aggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the fourth
quarter of 2018 was estimated at US$8.21 billion, indicating
31.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent decrease below the levels at
the end of the third quarter of 2018 and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. The invisible sector accounted for
the bulk (62.9%) of total foreign exchange disbursed in the
review quarter, followed by the industrial sector (18.9%).
Others were: manufactured products, 8.2 per cent; food
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed in Q4 2018.
Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
rose in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

products, 4.4 per cent; minerals and oil, 3.9 per cent;
agricultural sector, 0.7 per cent; and transport, 1.0 per cent
(Figure17).
Figure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange
Source: CBN

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$9.18 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised
dealers in the fourth quarter of 2018. This represented 16.1 per
cent decline below the level in the third quarter of 2018, but
was 80.6 per cent above the level in the corresponding period
of 2017. The development, relative to the preceding quarter
reflected
the
decline
in inter-bank sales
and
swaps
transactions in the review quarter.
Of the total, foreign exchange forwards disbursed at maturity
was US$3.15 billion (34.3 per cent); sales to BDCs, US$2.98
billion (32.5 per cent); I&E window, US$2.09 billion (22.8 per
cent); interbank sales, US$0.82 billion (8.7 per cent); and swaps
transactions, US$0.13 billion (1.5 per cent).


Agricultural
Transport
Food
Manufactures
Minerals & Oil
Industrial
Invisibles
percent of total
Q4-18
Q3-18
Q2-18
Supply for foreign
exchange by
authorized dealers fell
in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 18: Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Source: CBN

Table 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Forward

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)

Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the inter-bank and
the BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the
review quarter. However, the average exchange rate of the
naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the inter-bank segment
depreciated by 0.2 per cent to N306.70/US$, relative to the
level at end-September 2018. Similarly, at the BDC segment,
the average exchange rate, depreciated by 0.9 per cent and
0.01 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and
corresponding period of 2017 to N362.42/US$.
At the I&E window segment, the average exchange rate
stood at N364.27/US$, representing 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per
cent depreciation relative to the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
Consequently, the premium between the average inter-bank
and BDC rates widened by 0.8 percentage points in the
review quarter, from 18.2 percentage points at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2018, but the spread between the average
exchange rates at the Investors’ and Exporters’ window and
The average naira
exchange rate vis-à-vis the
US dollar depreciated at
the inter-bank segment,
BDC segment and I&E
Window in Q4 2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

the BDC segment narrowed further to 0.5 per cent, from 0.9
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter (Figure 19, Table
18).
Figure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Av. I & E
Av. BDC
Av. Interbank (RHS)
N/US$

Source: CBN

Table 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Investors and Exporters Window
N/A
N/A

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
I&E/Interbank
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18.0
18.4
18.3
BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 20: Exchange Rate Premium

Source: CBN

5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves was US$42.54 billion at end-December
2018. This indicated a decline of 0.2 per cent below the level
in the third quarter of 2018. The external reserves position
would cover 6.3 months of import of goods and services or
10.1 months of import of goods only, based on the estimated
value of import for the fourth quarter of 2018. A breakdown of
the official external reserves by ownership showed that CBN
reserves stood at US$35.27 billion (82.9 per cent), Federal
Government reserves, US$6.79 billion (16.0 per cent) and the
Federation reserves, US$0.48 billion (1.1 per cent) (Figure 21,
Table 19).


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Per cent
Interbank/BDC
Interbank/BDC
Gross external
reserves rose during
the fourth quarter of
2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Figure 21: Gross Official External Reserves


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
US$ million

Table 18: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
External Reserves
33,159.7

39,353.5

46,730.5

47,157.9

42,609.0

42.542.82


6.0 Global Economic Conditions


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

6.1 Global Output
Global growth was estimated at 3.7 percent for 2018, same as
was for 2017. This was due to a weaker outlook for some key
emerging market and developing economies, arising from
country-specific
factors,
tighter
financial
conditions,
geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.

Growth In advanced economies, was estimated at 2.4 per
cent in 2018 compared with 2.3 per cent in 2017. The United
States economy, was projected to peak at 2.9 percent
compared with 2.2 per cent in 2017. This was supported by the
procyclical Fiscal Stimulus after eight consecutive years of
expansion
and
still-loose
financial
conditions
(despite
expected monetary tightening). In the Euro area, growth
gradually slowed further to 2.0 per cent compared with 2.4
per cent in 2017.

In the emerging market and developing economies, growth
was estimated to remain steady at 4.7 percent in 2018 when
compared with the figure in 2017. The growth prospects of
many energy exporting economies were boosted by higher oil
prices, but growth was revised downward for Argentina, Brazil,
Iran, and Turkey, among others, reflecting country-specific
factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and
higher oil import bills. Growth in China was estimated at 6.6
percent in 2018, reflecting slowing external demand growth
and necessary financial regulatory tightening.

In sub-Sahara Africa, Growth was on the mend, with the
region’s average growth projected to rise to 3.1 percent in
2018 from 2.7 per cent in 2017. The increase was attributed to
stronger global growth, higher commodity prices, and
improved capital market access, following efforts to improve
fiscal balances in the aftermath of the commodity price
slump. Growth performance varied, however, across countries
in Africa on the backdrop of improved prospects for the
largest economy, Nigeria. Nigeria’s growth was projected to
increase from 0.8 percent in 2017 to 1.9 percent in 2018.

6.2 Global Inflation
In advanced economies, inflation was generally projected at
2.0 percent in 2018, up from 1.7 percent in 2017. The United
States, headline consumer price inflation was projected to
increase to 2.4 per cent in 2018, from 2.1 per cent in 2017.
In the Euro Area, inflation was estimated to be 1.7 percent in
2018 and 2019. With the recovery boosting growth above


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

potential for 2018, core inflation was expected to increase to
1.2 per cent in 2018, up from 1.1 per cent in 2017. The core
harmonized index of consumer prices was projected to
increase slowly to 2 percent by 2022, given a strong
backward-looking element in the euro area inflation process.
In emerging markets and developing economies, inflation in
China was expected to pick up to 2.2 per cent in 2018, up
from 1.6 per cent in 2017, and to about 3.0 percent over the
medium term, driven by higher food and energy prices.
Inflation in India is on the rise, estimated at 4.7 per cent in
fiscal year 2018, compared with 4.5 per cent in fiscal year
2017, amid accelerating demand and rising fuel prices. In
South Africa, inflation moderated to 4.8 per cent in 2018 from
5.3 per cent in 2017 with the easing of drought conditions. In
Nigeria and Angola, tighter monetary policy and moderation
in food price increases, contributed to tapering inflation. In
Nigeria, inflation was projected to fall to 12.4 per cent in 2018,
from 16.5 per cent in 2017, while in Angola, it was projected to
fall to 20.5 per cent in 2018 from 29.8 per cent in 2017.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Global crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at
99.99 mbd, representing 0.6 per cent increase above the level
in the preceding quarter. World crude oil demand was
estimated at an average of 99.98 mbd, indicating a 0.7 per
cent increase above the level in the third quarter of 2018.
The average price of OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) of 15
selected crude streams was US$67.98/b in the fourth quarter of
2018, and represented 8.3 per cent decrease below the level
in the preceding quarter. The decrease in oil price was
attributed to slowing global economic momentum amid USChina trade tensions and the prospect of lower growth in
global oil demand.
6.4
International Financial Markets
Developments in the international stock markets were
generally mixed in the fourth quarter of 2018. In North
America, the United States S&P 500, Canada S&P/TSX
Composite and Mexico bolsa (IPC) decreased by 8.2 per
cent, 5.8 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. In South
America, the Argentine Marvel and Brazilian Bovespa and the


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Colombian COLCAP indices decreased by 9.8 per cent, 2.7
per cent and 5.8 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, the UK FTSE 100, the France CAC 40, and German
DAX indices decreased by 0.8 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 1.3
per cent, respectively. Similarly, in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225,
and China’s Shanghai indices decreased by 6.9 per cent and
3.4 per cent, respectively, while the India’s BSE Sensex
increased by 0.2 per cent.
In Africa, the South African JSE African AS and the Egypt EGX
CSE 30 increased by 0.8 per cent and 6.7 per cent, while the
Nigerian ASI, Kenya Nairobi NSE 20, and the Ghanaian GSE All
share decreased by 0.3 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 2.7 per
cent respectively, in the review period.
In the foreign exchange market, twelve (12) out of the
sixteen (16) currencies surveyed depreciated against the US
dollar in the fourth quarter of 2018, reflecting continued
sluggish recovery of global output, decline in commodity
prices and investor appetite for dollar-denominated assets. A
summary of developments in the foreign exchange market
were as follows:

Africa: The Nigerian naira, South African rand, Kenyan
shillings and Ghanaian cedi all depreciated by 0.2 per
cent, 1.7 per cent, 0.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent,
respectively. The depreciation was attributed in part to
declining external reserves and sustained capital reversals
in response to higher yields in advanced countries and
partly to reduced output growth. The Egyptian pound,
appreciated by 0.1 per cent, on account of increased
foreign direct investments, diaspora remittances and
inflows from export earnings.

North America: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso
both depreciated by 5.1 per cent and 4.6 per cent,
respectively.


South America: The Brazilian real and Argentine peso
appreciated by 4.4 per cent and 9.7 per cent,
respectively, while the Colombian peso depreciated by
8.6 per cent.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Europe: The British pound, the euro and the Russian ruble
depreciated by 1.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent and 5.9 per
cent, respectively.


Asia: The, Chinese Yuan and Indian rupee depreciated by
5.4 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, while the
Japanese yen appreciated by 2.4 per cent.
6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the
fourth quarter of 2018 included: the ECOWAS sub-committee
meeting on monetary and exchange rate policy held in Lome,
Togo from October 1 – 3, 2018. The meeting brought together
representatives from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the
Bank of Ghana (BoG), the Central Bank of the Republic of
Guinea (BCRG), the West African Monetary Agency (WAMA)
and the West African Monetary Institute (WAMI). At the end of
the meeting, the Sub-committee was tasked by the
Committee of Governors of ECOWAS Member States with the
responsibility of:

Determining the choice of an appropriate monetary
policy framework and exchange rate regime for the
future ECOWAS Central Bank; and

Defining the modalities for carrying out the assignment,
as well as determining the scope of work and
responsibilities of the member central banks and
regional institutions for the conduct of some studies.
The 54th Ordinary Session of the Authority of Heads of States
and Government of the Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS) convened on December 22, 2018 in Abuja,
Nigeria. The Meeting noted the following:


The improvement in the growth forecast from 2.3 per
cent to 3.0 per cent, which resulted from the
accelerated growth noted in several countries of the
community, as well as, the consolidated economic
recovery in Nigeria;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

The level of progress made in the implementation of
the ECOWAS Single Currency programme.

The report of the President of the Commission on the
status of implementation of the directives issued at its
53rd Session held on July 31, 2018 in Lome, Togo and
the relevant recommendations made to provide the
region with a stable monetary union;

The need for member States to continue to diversify
their economies and implement specific policies to
support economic growth-oriented sectors; and

Welcomed
results
achieved
by
the
Ministerial
Committee on the single currency programme and the
Committee of Governors of the ECOWAS Central Banks.
Furthermore, the 2018 Annual Meetings of the Board of
Governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) were held in Bali, Indonesia
from October 8 – 14, 2018. Also, sideline meetings of the InterGovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) on International
Monetary Affairs and Developments were held during the
period.
The G24 Ministers expressed concern that while the recovery
of global growth continued, growth among emerging and
developing economies was becoming increasingly uneven;
The Ministers strongly called for international cooperation to
foster a rule-based, open, transparent, non-discriminatory and
equitable multilateral trading system, with the World Trade
Organisation at its center;
They
further
expressed
concern
on
the
rising
debt
vulnerabilities and called on the IMF and WBG to strengthen
their support for domestic resource mobilisation, combating
illicit financial flows and mitigating the adverse social and
distributional impact of fiscal adjustment, among others;
The International Monetary and Finance Committee (IMFC)
noted that, advancing financial and structural reforms were
critical
to
lifting
potential
growth,
employment
and
strengthening resilience, while effectively assisting those
bearing the cost of adjustment. The Committee pledged to


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

monitor and, as necessary, tackle financial vulnerabilities and
emerging risks, through continued regulatory cooperation and
avoid fragmentation;
The Development Committee (DC) supported the role the
WBG could play in helping countries find new pathways to
sustainable and inclusive growth by building the foundations
of the digital economy, boosting the capacity of people, firms
and institutions, and brokering technology solutions.
In addition, the Sub-committee on Monetary and Exchange
Rate Policy in ECOWAS was held in Lome, Togo from October
1 – 3, 2018. The Sub-committee was tasked by the Committee
of Governors of ECOWAS Member States with the responsibility
of determining the choice of an appropriate monetary policy
framework and exchange rate regime for the future of
ECOWAS Central Bank. Subsequently, the Sub-committee met
to define the modalities for carrying out the assignment,
determine the scope of work and articulate the responsibilities
of the Member Central Banks and regional institutions.
Finally, a team from Moody’s Ratings Agency, led by Mr.
Aurelien Mali visited the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on
November 8, 2018, with the objective of reviewing Nigeria’s
2018 macroeconomic performance following the last exercise
carried
out
in
2017.
The
discussions
focused
on
Macroeconomic Developments, External Reserves, Balance of
Payments and Exchange Rate Management. Moody’s team
were informed that:

Total external reserves stood at US$40.65 billion at endOctober 2018;


The current operations around exchange rate windows
were measures designed to stabilize the FX market; and


Following the recovery from the recession, the financial
sector had been resilient as a result of the adoption of
a
strict
supervision
methodology
(risk-based
supervision).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
N billion
Domestic Credit (Net)
26,985.30

25,863.30

8,683.90

25,568.20

26,408.42

27,594.15

Claims on Federal Government (Net)
4,963.40

3,640.93

4,930.75

3,286.30

3,440.99

4,867.58

Central Bank (Net)
(137.90)

(353.56)

1,643.93

23,409.80

(91.46)

342.21

Banks
5,101.30

3,994.49

3,286.82

3,262.90

3,532.45

4,525.37

Claims on Private Sector
22,021.90

22,290.66

22,363.23

22,281.90

22,967.43

22,726.57

Central Bank
5,532.60

5,870.69

6,258.21

6,420.40

6,431.58

6,574.67

Banks
16,489.30

15,515.56

15,129.61

15,861.50

16,535.85

16,151.89

Claims on Other Private Sector
20,737.40

20,718.30

20,466.19

20,489.00

21,173.75

21,128.07

Central Bank
4,967.10

5,202.74

5,336.57

5,599.80

5,730.19

5,873.28

Banks
15,770.30

15,515.56

15,129.60

14,889.20

15,443.56

15,254.79

Claims on State and Local Government
1,257.10

1,544.83

1,631.93

1,628.80

1,341.87

1,553.64

Central Bank
538.10

640.43

656.53

656.50

656.53

656.53

DMBs
719.00

904.40

975.40

972.30

685.34

897.11

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
--
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
Central Bank
--
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
DMBs
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
'--
Foreign Assets (Net)
10,050.50

15,520.76

16,316.80

18,337.50

18,815.94

18,397.82

Central Bank
9,870.20

15,134.60

15,918.20

17,844.10

18,277.81

18,181.45

DMBs and Non Interest Banks
180.30

386.10

398.70

493.50

538.13

216.37

Other Assets (Net)
(7,190.60)

(10,294.80)

(10,463.70)

(10,091.00)

(14,373.29)

(12,570.23)

Money Supply (M3)
29,845.20

31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

30,851.05

33,421.74

Quasi-Money 1/
11,889.80

12,965.10

13,390.40

14,112.90

14,802.98

15,327.69

Money Supply (M1)
10,064.30

11,175.60

11,034.00

10,701.10

10,757.68

11,751.14

Currency Outside Banks
1,435.30

1,782.70

1,668.40

1,519.90

1,601.88

1,913.24

Demand Deposits 2/
8,628.90

9,392.90

9,365.60

9,181.20

9,155.79

9,837.90

Money Supply (M2)
21,954.00

24,140.60

24,424.40

24,814.00

25,560.66

27,078.83

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors
7,891.30

7,016.90

8,722.70

9,000.70

5,290.39

6,342.91

Money Supply (M3)
29,845.20

31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

30,851.05

33,421.74

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
5,559.80

6,484.30

6,755.70

6,360.50

6,802.56

7,135.73

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
1,781.10

2,157.20

2,039.30

1,900.70

1,926.38

2,329.71

Banks' Deposit with CBN
3,778.70

4,327.10

4,716.40

4,459.80

4,876.17

4,806.02

Source: CBN


1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Money Assets (M2)


5.9
CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


4.9
Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector


Claims on Other Private Sector


Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Money Supply (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)


DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

Source: CBN

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.
*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter

Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Retained Revenue
748.56

884.88

1,125.31

1,035.72

916.44

Federation Account
637.73

758.47

767.48

824.40

828.66

VAT Pool Account
36.50

38.89

38.02

40.28

39.80

FGN Independent Revenue
35.80

72.05

147.58

55.95

12.58

Excess Crude
24.24

14.10

-

-

32.08

Others
14.30

1.37

172.24

115.09

3.32

Expenditure
1,956.94

2,015.60

1,630.11

1,890.80

1,826.85

Recurrent
1,379.91

1,394.33

1,284.06

1,585.33

1,604.58

Capital
463.98

507.16

231.93

191.36

108.15

Transfers
114.06

114.11

114.11

114.11

114.11

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,208.38)

(1,130.72)

(504.80)

(855.08)

(910.41)


*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Fourth Quarter