QPM forecast summary table September 2022 MPC Press report
Summary tables of quarterly projection model projections
Summary of selected forecast results
* Figures below the forecast in parentheses represents the previous MPC forecast
1. Selected forecast results (quarterly)
Percentage change
(year-on-year)
Actual
Forecast

1.
Headline CPI

Core CPI

2. Selected forecast results (annual)
Percentage changes
(unless otherwise indicated)
Actual
Forecast

1.
GDP growth

Output gap

Nominal effective exchange rate

Real effective exchange rate

Real exchange rate gap

Repurchase rate (end of period)

Current account balance

(ratio to GDP) **

Notes
1. Nominal effective exchange rate: is based on the bilateral exchange rates of our three largest trading partners (euro area, United States and Japan). The bilateral exchange rates are weighted by export trade weights.
2. Real effective exchange rate: is the nominal effective exchange rate deflated by the consumer price differential (between South Africa and the trade weighted CPI of euro area, United States and Japan).
3. Real exchange rate gap: The gap signifies the extent to which the real exchange rate deviates from its estimated equilibrium level. A positive gap shows an overvaluation of the currency, and vice versa.
4. ** Current account balance as a percentage of GDP: forecast obtained from the SARB's Core macroeconometric model.
5. Repurchase rate : End of period refers to the average repo rate for the last quater of the year.