ECONOMIC REPORT
FIRST QUARTER 2019


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page ii
Economic Report First Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
a wide spectrum of readers including economists and financial analysts in government
and the private sector, as well as general readers.


Subscription to the Quarterly Economic Report is available without charge to institutions, corporations,
embassies and development agencies. Individuals, on written request, can obtain any particular issue
without a charge. Please direct all inquiries on the publication to the Director of Research, Central Bank
of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.

The Quarterly Reports can also be freely downloaded from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng
Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iii
Economic Report First Quarter


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page iv
Economic Report First Quarter


Text Tables


Appendix Tables


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page v
Economic Report First Quarter

Figures


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
Page vi
Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank loosened its Monetary Policy stance in the review period as
the Monetary Policy Rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 13.50
per cent. Broad money supply (M3), grew by 4.3 per cent to
N34,798.03 billion at end-February 2019, compared with the growth
of 16.4 per cent at end-December 2018. The development reflected
the respective growth of 10.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent in domestic
credit (net) and other assets (net) of the banking system. However,
narrow money supply (M1), fell by 6.2 per cent, but contrasted with
the growth of 5.2 per cent at end-December 2018. The change in
the February level was due, to the 3.8 per cent and 6.6 per cent
decline in its currency outside banks and demand deposit
components, respectively.
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, with lending rates
trending downwards in the review quarter. With the exception of the
7-day deposit rate, which fell by 0.3 percentage point to 3.59 per
cent, all other deposits rates of various maturities rose from a range
of 0.46 – 10.49 per cent to 0.90 – 11.50 per cent at end-March 2019.
The average savings rate remains unchanged at 4.07 per cent at
the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. The average term deposit rate
rose by 0.24 percentage point to 8.69 per cent at the end of the
review quarter. The average prime lending rate declined by 0.12
percentage point to 16.05 per cent, while the maximum lending rate
remains unchanged at the preceding quarter’s level of 30.52 per
cent. Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposits and maximum lending rate narrowed by 0.24
percentage point to 21.60 percentage points at end-March 2019.
The weighted average inter-bank call rate rose by 3.14 percentage
points to 11.50 per cent at end-March 2019.
The total value of money market assets outstanding declined by 2.5
per cent to N11,892.28 billion, at end-March 2019. The development
was attributed to the decline in FGN Bonds, NTBs and Banker’s
Acceptances in the review quarter. Developments on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) were generally mixed.
Federally-collected revenue, at N2,309.78 billion, in the first quarter
of 2019, was 30.5 per cent and 4.2 per cent lower than the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate and the receipts in the
preceding quarter, respectively. The development relative to the
budget estimate was due to the shortfall in receipts from both oil
and non-oil revenue components in the review quarter. Federal

1 Data on monetary aggregates, government spending and foreign
exchange flows are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Government estimated retained revenue and total expenditure
were N798.82 billion and N1,197.04 billion, respectively, resulting in an
estimated deficit of N398.22 billion in the first quarter of 2019.
The predominant agricultural activities across the country during the
quarter were the preparation of land for early wet season planting,
the harvesting of tree-crops and irrigation-fed vegetables. In the
livestock sub-sector, farmers continued to intensify efforts towards
rearing of poultry birds and cattle in preparation for the 2019 Easter
celebration. The end-period headline inflation, on year-on-year and
12-month moving average bases for the review period stood at
11.25 per cent and 11.40 per cent, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to
US$18.64 billion and US$17.29 billion, respectively, resulting in a net
inflow of US$1.35 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorised dealers amounted to US$11.81 billion. The average
exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar depreciated to
N306.84/US$, N362.07/US$ and N359.97/US$ at the inter-bank
segment, the Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) Window and BDC
segment, respectively, in the review quarter. The external reserves
increased by 5.2 per cent to US$44.74 billion at end- March, 2019.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 99.02 mbd
and 100.49 mbd, respectively, in the first quarter of 2019. Nigeria’s
crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids,
was estimated at an average of 1.84 mbd in the review quarter. The
average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370
API), was US$64.75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2019, compared
with US$69.89 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Major international developments of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: The 39th Meeting of the
Technical Committee of the West African Institute for Financial and
Economic Management (WAIFEM) held in Accra, Ghana on
February 3, 2019; the 44th Meeting of the Technical Committee (TC)
of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) held in Accra, Ghana
from February 4-5, 2019; and the 2018 End-of-Year Statutory meeting
of the West African Monetary Agency (WAMA), which took place in
Dakar, Senegal, from February 18-21, 2019, among others.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
The Bank loosened its Monetary Policy stance in the review period as
the Monetary Policy Rate was adjusted downward by 50 basis points
to 13.50 per cent. Over the level at end-December 2018, broad
money supply (M3), grew by 4.3 per cent at end-February 2019,
reflecting 10.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent increase in domestic credit
(net) and other assets (net) of the banking system, respectively.
Narrow money supply (M1) fell by 6.2 per cent due to 3.8 per cent
and 6.6 per cent declines in its currency outside banks and demand
deposits components, respectively. The value of money market
assets outstanding fell below the level in the preceding quarter.
Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) indicated mixed
developments in the first quarter of 2019.
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
The Bank loosened its Monetary Policy stance in the review
period as the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was adjusted
downward by 50 basis points to 13.50 per cent from 14.00 per
cent. The key monetary aggregate trended upward at endFebruary 2019. Over the level at end-December 2018, broad
money supply (M3) grew by 4.3 per cent to N34,798.0 billion at
end-February 2019, compared with the growth of 16.4 per
cent and 3.4 per cent at end-December 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development
reflected the respective growth of 10.7 per cent and 1.0 per
cent in domestic credit (net) and other assets (net) of the
banking system, which more than offset the 7.5 per cent
decline in net foreign assets.
Narrow money supply (M1) fell by 6.2 per cent to N11,028.86 in
February 2019, but contrasted with the growth of 5.2 per cent
at end-December 2018. Relative to the level at the end of the
corresponding period of 2018, narrow money supply (M1),
declined by 2.9 per cent. The fall reflected the 3.8 per cent
and 6.6 per cent decline in currency outside banks and
demand deposits, respectively.
Quasi-money grew by 1.2 per cent at end-February 2019,
compared with the growth of 18.1 per cent and 2.5 per cent
at end-December 2018 and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively. The development was attributed to the rise in

2 All monetary aggregate numbers are provisional and subject to revision
Growth in key
monetary aggregates
was significant in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

time and savings deposits of banks (Figure 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3

Source: CBN
Aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), rose by 10.7
per cent to N30,517.94 at end-February 2019, compared with
the growth of 6.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent at end-December
2018 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The
development reflected the respective increase of 30.6 per
cent and 6.4 per cent in net claims on the Federal
Government and claims on the private sector.
Net claims on the Federal Government rose by 30.6 per cent
to N6,354.5 billion at end-February 2019, compared with the
growth of 33.7 per cent and 26.3 per cent at end-December
2018 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The
development
reflected
the
increase
in
holdings
of
government securities by the CBN.
Banking system’s credit to the private sector rose by 6.4 per
cent to N24,163.4 billion at end-February 2019, compared with
the increase of 1.9 per cent and 0.9 per cent at endDecember 2018 and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively. The development was attributed to the 5.9 per

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).
-15
-10
-5

-15
-10
-5

Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Feb-19
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM3 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM3 (LHS)
Banking system’s
credit to the Federal
Government rose in
the review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

cent increase in claims on the core private sector (Figure 2,
Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy
Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system fell by 7.5 per cent
to N17,023.2 billion at end-February 2019. It, however,
contrasted with the growth of 18.5 per cent recorded at endDecember 2018. Relative to the level at the end of the
corresponding period of 2018, foreign assets (net) declined by
3.2 per cent. The development was attributed to the 8.8 per
cent fall in foreign asset holdings of the CBN.
Other assets (net) of the banking system fell by 1.0 per cent at
end-February 2019 to negative N12,743.1 billion, in contrast to
the growth of 1.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent at end-December
2018 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The
decline in other assets (net) of the banking system, in the
review period, was attributed to the fall in the unclassified
assets of the CBN.


-30
-20
-10

Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Feb-19
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system fell at the
end of the review
period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over Preceding Quarter
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the
CBN

Currency-in-circulation (CIC) at end-February 2019, fell by 3.8
per cent to N2,241.3 billion, but was in contrast to the growth
of 20.9 per cent at end-December 2018. The development
relative to the preceding quarter reflected, mainly, the 3.8 per
cent and 6.6 per cent decline in its currency outside banks
and demand deposit components, respectively.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N14,154.9 billion at
end-February 2019, indicating a 9.9 per cent decline below
the level at end-December 2018. The fall was attributed to
16.5 per cent and 14.8 per cent decline in the deposits of the
private sector and the Federal Government, respectively. Of
the total deposits at the CBN, the shares of the Federal
Government, banks and private sector deposits were 46.8 per
cent, 34.8 per cent and 18.4 per cent, respectively.
Reserve money rose marginally by 0.4 per cent to N7,166.9
billion at end-February 2019, compared with the increase of
4.9 per cent at end-December 2018. The development
reflected the rise in total bank reserves.
2.3
Money Market Developments
The money market was generally stable in the first quarter of
2019 despite mixed liquidity trends in the domestic money
market. Although fiscal injections and maturing CBN bills
boosted liquidity, withdrawals arising from CBN interventions in
the market through Open Market Operations (OMO),
The money market
was relatively stable
during the review
period.
Reserve money (RM)
rose at the end of the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

moderated
liquidity
considerably.
Consequently,
major
money market rates, on average, trended below the levels at
the end of the preceding quarter, reflecting ample liquidity in
the system.
Total value of money market assets outstanding in the first
quarter of 2019 stood at N11,892.28 billion, showing a decline
of 2.5 per cent, in contrast to the 4.3 per cent increase
recorded at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. The
development was attributed to the 4.1 per cent, 3.1 per cent
and 25.0 per cent decline in the FGN Bonds, NTBs and
Bankers’ Acceptances, respectively,
during the review
quarter.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Interest rates moved in tandem with the level of banking
system liquidity during the review period. Consequently,
banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while lending rates trended
downwards in the first quarter of 2019. With the exception of
the 7-day deposit rate, which fell by 0.3 percentage point to
3.59 per cent, all other deposits rates of various maturities rose
from a range of 0.46 – 10.49 per cent to 0.90 – 11.50 per cent
at end-March 2019. The average savings rate remain
unchanged at 4.07 per cent, at the end of the fourth quarter
of 2018. The average term deposit rate rose by 0.24
percentage point to 8.69 per cent at end-March 2019.
At the inter-bank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 8.36 per cent at end-December
2018, rose by 3.14 percentage points to 11.50 per cent at endMarch 2019. However, the Nigeria inter-bank offered rate
(NIBOR) for the 30-day tenor fell from 16.09 per cent at endDecember 2018 to 10.68 per cent at end-March 2019.
Similarly, the weighted average rate, at the Open-Buy-Back
(OBB) segment, fell by 9.32 percentage points to 12.32 per
cent at the end of the review quarter (Figure 3, Table 2).
Staff estimates indicated that the average prime lending rate
fell by 0.12 percentage point to 16.05 per cent, below the
level at the end of the preceding quarter, while the maximum
lending rate remain unchanged at the fourth quarter 2018
level of 30.52 per cent. The average term deposit rate,
however, increased by 0.23 percentage point to 8.92 per
Interest rates moved in
tandem with the level
of banking system
liquidity in the money
market during the
review period.
Inter-bank call rate
rose in Q1 2019


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

cent. Consequently, the spread between the average term
deposit and the average maximum lending rates narrowed
by 0.24 percentage point to 21.60 percentage points in the
first quarter of 2019. The weighted average inter-bank call rate
rose by 3.14 percentage points to 11.50 per cent at endMarch 2019. With the headline inflation at 11.36 per cent at
end-March 2019, all deposit rates were negative in real terms,
while lending rates were positive.
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)


Source: CBN
Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by banks stood at
N13.44 billion at end of the first quarter of 2019, showing an
increase of 23.8 per cent above the N10.86 billion recorded at
the end of the preceding quarter of 2018. The development
was due to the increase in investments in CP by merchant

Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

banks during the review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.1 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding
during the review period, compared with 0.1 per cent in the
fourth quarter of 2018.

2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N8.68
billion in the first quarter of 2019, showing a decline of 25.0 per
cent below the N11.57 billion recorded at the end of the
preceding quarter of 2018. The development was attributed
to a fall in investment in BAs by commercial banks during the
review period. Consequently, BAs accounted for 0.07 per
cent of the total value of money market assets outstanding at
end of the first quarter of 2019, compared with 0.1 per cent at
the end of the fourth quarter of 2018.

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
The Bank intervened through direct Open Market Operations
(OMO) auctions, to influence liquidity in the system during the
first quarter of 2019. The tenors to maturity of the instruments
ranged from 86 days to 364 days. Total amount offered,
subscribed to and allotted, stood at N8,115.91 billion,
N8,245.39 billion and N7,611.21 billion, respectively. The bid
rates ranged from 11.00 per cent to 15.00 per cent, while the
stop rates ranged from 11.05 per cent to 15.00 per cent.
Repayment of matured CBN bills amounted to N4,955.77
billion, translating to a net withdrawal of N2,306.27 billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364day tenors, amounting to N961.49 billion, N2, 716.85 billion and
N888.04 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, at the auctions held in the first quarter of 2019 on
behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total
subscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were
N153.10 billion and N79.62 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 10.30 per cent to 14.00 per cent, while the stop
rates ranged from 10.30 per cent to 11.00 per cent.
For the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were
N303.08 billion and N176.42 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 11.50 per cent to 15.00 per cent, while the stop
rates ranged from 12.20 per cent to 13.50 per cent. Total
Banks’ holdings of
BAs declined in Q1
of 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

subscription and allotment at the 364-day auction were
N2,260.67 billion and N631.99 billion, respectively, with bid
rates ranging from 11.59 per cent to 18.00 per cent, while stop
rates ranged from 12.35 per cent to 15.00 per cent. On all the
maturities, the bid to cover ratio was 3.06.
2.3.6
Bonds Market
Tranches of the 5-, 7-, and 10-year FGN Bonds were reopened and offered for sale during the review period. The
term to maturity of the bonds ranged from 4 years, 1 month to
9 years, 1 month. Total amount offered, subscribed to, and
allotted were N464.08 billion, N534.35 billion and N277.82
billion, respectively. In addition, N92.60 billion was allotted on
a non-competitive basis. There was no maturity and
repayment during the review period. The bid rates on all
tenors ranged from 13.00 per cent to 16.45 per cent, while the
marginal rates ranged from 13.50 per cent to 15.35 per cent.
The auction was impressive due to renewed investors’
confidence in the market.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The banks continued to access the CBN’s Standing Facilities
window to square up their positions either by borrowing from
the standing lending facility (SLF) window or depositing excess
liquidity at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window of the
CBN at the end of each business day.
Total request for the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) inclusive of
Intra-day lending facilities (ILF) that was converted to
overnight repo during the review quarter stood at N8,406.49
billion, compared with N3,677.53 billion in the preceding
quarter. Daily average transaction value amounted to
N137.81 billion in 61 transaction days, with total interest earned
at N5.65 billion, compared with the daily average of N62.33
billion in 59 transaction days, with total interest earned of
N2.54 billion at the end of the preceding quarter.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N2.915.91 billion, with daily average of N47.80
billion, compared with N4,406.55 billion, in the first quarter of
2019. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quarter
amounted to N0.99 billion, compared with N1.59 billion in the
preceding quarter.
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were offered for sale in
the Q1 of 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

2.4
Banks’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of banks stood at N38,408.35
billion at end-February 2019, representing 3.2 per cent
increase above the level at end-December 2018. Funds were
sourced, largely, from foreign liabilities; draw down on reserves
and acquisition of credit from the Central Bank. The funds
were used, mainly, for payment of demand deposits, and
settlement of claims on the Central Bank and the Federal
Government.
At N20,932.74 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy,
at end-February 2019 showed an increase of 1.3 per cent,
compared with the level at end-December 2018. The
development reflected the 1.8 per cent rise in claims on the
private sector in the review period.
Total specified liquid assets of the banks was N13,266.69 billion
at end-March 2019, representing 59.5 per cent of the total
current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio was 2.2
percentage points below the level at end-December 2018,
but 29.50 percentage points above the stipulated minimum
ratio of 30.0 per cent. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 60.04 per
cent, was 0.13 percentage point and 19.96 percentage points
lower than the level at end-December 2018 and the
prescribed maximum of 80.0 per cent, respectively.
2.5
Capital Market Developments
2.5.1
Secondary Market
Market sentiments were generally uncertain during the review
period, largely, owing to concerns surrounding the 2019
general elections, and as well as portfolio rebalancing by
investors from equities market to money market instruments,
particularly NTBs. Consequently, volatility in the market
intensified, leading to mixed developments on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) in the first quarter of 2019. Thus,
aggregate volume of traded securities rose by 9.5 per cent to
20.7 billion shares, while the value of traded securities fell by
1.2 per cent to N208.7 billion in 240,990 deals, compared with
18.9 billion shares worth N211.2 billion in 196,065 deals,
recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Liquidity ratio was
above the prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit ratio
was below the
prescribed maximum
in March of 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 4 : Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)

360.4
339.4 439.7

211.2
208.7
Source: NSE
2.5.2
New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings
There was one supplementary equity listing in the first quarter
of 2019.
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing
1 Consolidated Hallmark Insurance PLC
1.13 billion ordinary Shares
Additional Shares
Supplementary

2.5.3
Market Capitalisation
The aggregate market capitalisation for all listed securities
(Equities and Debts) rose by 1.9 per cent to N22.3 trillion at
end-March 2019, compared with N21.9 trillion at the end of
the fourth quarter of 2018. However, market capitalisation for
the equity segment fell by 0.5 per cent to N11.67 trillion and
constituted
52.3
per
cent
of
the
aggregate
market
capitalisation, compared with N11.73 trillion and 53.4 per cent
at end-December 2018.

Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
The All Share Index (ASI) is a measure of the magnitude and
direction of general price movement. Thus, the All-Share
Index, which opened at 31,430.50 at the beginning of the
quarter, fell by 1.2 per cent to 31,041.42 at end-March 2019,
compared with the level in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Developments in the sectoral indices reflected mixed
performance of quoted stocks on the Exchange. The NSEPremium, NSE-AseM, NSE-Banking, NSE-Lotus and NSE-Industrial
indices rose by 0.4 per cent, 1.7 per cent, 1.3 per cent, 1.5 per
cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively, to 2,203.76, 807.22, 403.96,
2,267.64, and 1,239.73. In contrast, the NSE-Insurance, NSEConsumer Goods, NSE-Oil and Gas and NSE-Pension indices
fell by 0.4 per cent, 5.0 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 1.6 per
cent, respectively, to close at 125.98, 711.29, 290.52, and
1,188.02 at end-March 2019.
Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: NSE
Table 4: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Market Capitalization (N trillion)
16.5


All-Share Index (Equities)
25,516.34

33,117.48

35,439.98

38,243.19

41,504.51

38,278.55

32,766.37

31,430.50

31,041.42

Source: NSE


Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations4
Federally collected revenue in the first quarter of 2019 fell
below the provisional proportionate quarterly budget estimate
and receipt in the preceding quarter by 30.5 per cent and 4.2
per cent, respectively. Federal Government retained revenue
for the review quarter was N798.82 billion, while total
estimated expenditure amounted to N1,197.04 billion, resulting
in an estimated overall deficit of N398.22 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
The federally-collected revenue (gross), at N2,309.78 billion, in
the first quarter of 2019, was lower than the proportionate
quarterly budget estimate of N3,321.36 billion by 30.5 per cent.
Similarly, it fell below the receipts in the preceding quarter by
4.2 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue (gross)
relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was
attributed to the shortfall in receipts from both oil and non-oil
revenue components during the review period (Figure 6, Table
5).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue


4 All figures on government revenue and expenditure are provisional and subject to changes\

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
N'Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross federally -
collected
revenue fell by
30.5 per cent
below the
proportionate
budget estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 5: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
2,135.46

2,362.14

2,534.69

2,412.22

2,309.78

Oil Revenue
1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

1,465.31

1,413.74

Non-Oil Revenue
847.41

964.08

1,140.50

946.91

896.04

Source:Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional

Gross oil receipt, at N1,413.74 billion or 61.2 per cent of the
total revenue, was below both the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by
26.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively. The decline in oil
revenue relative to the proportionate budget estimate was
due to shortfalls in crude oil production and exports, arising
from maintenance operations at the various NNPC terminals
(Figure 7, Table 6).

Figure 7 : Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 6: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Oil Revenue Gross
1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

1,465.31

1,413.74

Crude oil/Gas Sales
98.21

109.32

104.49

103.62

137.09

PPT/Royalties
926.33

841.03

914.56

1,044.17

871.36

Others
263.51

447.71

375.14

317.52

405.29

Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
N'Billion
Crude oil/Gas Sales
PPT/Royalties
Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Non-oil revenue, at N896.04 billion or 38.8 per cent of the total,
fell below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of
N1,400.74 billion by 36.0 per cent. Furthermore, it fell below the
level in the preceding quarter by 5.4 per cent. The lower nonoil revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate was due to shortfalls in receipt from Federal
Government Independent Revenue and Corporate Tax
(Figure 8, Table 7).
Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Non-Oil Revenue
847.41

964.08

1,140.50

946.91

896.04

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
277.26

264.00

279.69

276.41

301.62

Corporate Tax
256.86

315.14

510.79

347.15

297.21

Customs & Excise Duties
158.42

169.60

181.06

196.37

190.96

Others/1
154.87

215.34

168.96

126.98

106.26

1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies
(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of finance
* All figures are provisional

After the statutory deductions and transfers of N435.51 billion
and N395.81 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,478.45 billion
was retained in the Federation Account. Of this amount, the
Federal Government received N709.03 billion, State and Local
governments received N359.63 billion and N277.26 billion,
respectively, while the balance of N132.54 billion was

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
N'Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
The sum of N1,478.45
billion
of
the
gross
federally-collected
revenue was distributed
among the three tiers of
government
and
the
13.0% Derivation Fund
for oil producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among
the oil-producing states.
In addition, the Federal Government received N43.43 billion,
while the State and Local governments received N144.78
billion and N101.34 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool
Account.
Table 8: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (N Billion)*
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Total Deductions 1/
117.24

287.28

396.91

288.34

435.51

Oil Rev enue Deductions

Non-Oil Rev enue Deductions

Total Transfers
421.32

468.78

437.46

392.33

395.81

Federal Gov t. Ind. Rev enue

VAT Pool Account

Others 2/

1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions
2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
The sum of N12.14 billion was shared as Non-oil excess revenue
from which the Federal Government received N6.40 billion,
while the State and Local governments received N3.24 billion
and N2.50 billion, respectively. In addition, Exchange Gain,
amounting to N2.49 billion was shared as follows: Federal
N1.16 billion; State governments, N0.59 billion; and Local
governments, N0.46 billion. The balance of N0.28 billion was
transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among
the oil-producing states.
Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the
three tiers of government in the first quarter of 2019 amounted
to N1,782.64 billion, compared with the proportionate
quarterly budget estimate of N2,829.08 billion.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government
The Federal Government retained revenue, at N798.82 billion,
was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate and
the receipts in the preceding quarter by 57.7 per cent and
28.8 per cent, respectively. A breakdown showed that
Federation Account constituted 88.8 per cent, while VAT,
Federal Government Independent Revenue, Excess Non-oil
At N798.82 billion, the
estimated FGN retained
revenue was lower than
the
proportionate
quarterly


budget
estimate by 57.7 per
cent.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

and Exchange Gain amounted to 5.4, 4.9, 0.8, and 0.1 per
cent, respectively (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue


Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Retained Revenue
884.88

1,120.58

1,053.49

1,121.55

798.82

Expenditure
2,213.73

1,598.07

1,923.69

1,834.69

1,197.04

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(579.46)

(131.45)

(564.73)

(213.89)

(56.10)

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(624.40)

(108.70)

(129.22)

(366.00)

(64.83)

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,328.86)

(477.49)

(870.21)

(713.13)

(398.22)

Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General
of the Federation
*All figures are provisional
The estimated Federal Government expenditure for the first
quarter of 2019, at N1,197.04 billion, was below the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,376.93 billion
by 49.6 per cent and the level in the preceding quarter by
34.8 per cent. Recurrent expenditure, capital expenditure and
transfers constituted 71.4 per cent, 23.0 per cent and 5.6 per
cent of the total expenditure, repectively. A breakdown of the
recurrent expenditure showed that non-debt obligation was
61.0 per cent, while debt service payments accounted for
39.0 per cent of the total (Figure 10).

Federation Acct.
88.8%
VAT Pool Acct.
5.4%
FGN Ind. Rev.
4.9%
Exchange Gain
0.1%
Excess Non-Oil
0.8%


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure

Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N398.22 billion, compared with the
proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N488.62 billion.
3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
At N641.06 billion, total statutory allocation to the state
governments from the Federation Account, including the
13.0% Derivation Fund and the VAT Pool Account was lower
than the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 39.6 per
cent.
Receipt from the Federation Account was N496.28 billion or
77.4 per cent of the total statutory allocation. This was 43.4
per cent below the proportionate budget estimate. Similarly,
the allocation from VAT Pool Accounts, at N144.78 billion or
22.6 per cent of the total, was below the proportionate
budget estimate by 21.9 per cent.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts in the first quarter of 2019 stood at
N381.56 billion. This represented a shortfall of 35.2 per cent
relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate.
Allocation from the Federation Account amounted to N280.21
billion or 73.4 per cent, while the VAT Pool Account stood at
N101.34 billion or 26.6 per cent.

Recurrent,
71.4%
Capital, 23.0%
Statutory
transfers, 5.6%
The fiscal operations
of the FG resulted in
an estimated overall
deficit
of
N398.22
billion in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
Agricultural activities in the review quarter were dominated by
preparation of land for early rainy season planting, the harvesting of
tree-crops and irrigation-fed vegetables. In the livestock sub-sector,
farmers continued to intensify efforts towards rearing poultry birds
and cattle in preparation for the 2019 Easter celebration. End-period
headline inflation, on year-on-year and 12-month moving average
bases for the first quarter of 2019 was 11.25 per cent and 11.40 per
cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
Drier weather condition continued in most parts of the
country, especially in the North, as a result of increased rate of
evaporation due to high temperature level during the first
quarter of 2019. Generally, the predominant agricultural
activities across the country during the quarter were the
preparation of land for early rainy season planting, the
harvesting of tree-crops and irrigation-fed vegetables. In the
livestock sub-sector, farmers continued to intensify efforts
towards rearing poultry birds and cattle in preparation for the
2019 Easter celebration.
4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
The
Agricultural
Credit
Guarantee
Scheme
(ACGS)
guaranteed a total of N654.9 million to 6,281 farmers in the first
quarter of 2019. The amount represented a decline of 23.2 per
cent and 20.7 per cent, below the levels in the preceding
quarter and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
Sub-sectoral analysis showed that food crops got the largest
share of N377.0 million (57.6%), guaranteed to 4,999
beneficiaries, followed by the livestock sub-sector, N110.5
million (16.9 %), guaranteed to 448 beneficiaries. Also, the sum
of N71.9 million was disbursed to cash crops (11.0%),
guaranteed to 382 beneficiaries, while fisheries, mixed crops,
and ‘Others’ got N51.4 million (7.9%), N24.8 million (3.8%) and
N19.3 million (3.0%), guaranteed to 160, 201, and 91
beneficiaries, respectively.
Analysis by state revealed that 27 states and the Federal
Capital Territory benefited from the Scheme in the review
quarter, with the highest and lowest sums of N97.9 million
(15.0%) and N0.5 million (0.1%) guaranteed to Plateau and
Bayelsa states, respectively.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
As at March 20, 2019, the total amount released since
inception by the CBN under the Commercial Agriculture
Credit Scheme (CACS) to the participating banks for
disbursement, amounted to N605.9 billion for 586 projects,
while total amount repaid stood at N338.4 billion (Table 10).
Table 10: Disbursement and Repayment of Credit under the Commercial Agriculture
Credit Scheme (CACS) as at March 20, 2019


4.4
Industrial Production5
The industrial sector showed an improvement in the first
quarter
of
2019,
on
account
of
expansion
in
the
manufacturing
activities
due
to
marginal
increase
in
employment, output and new orders in the sub-sector.
Moderation in prices of input, coupled with Federal
Government efforts in implementing the Economic and
Recovery Growth Plan (ERGP), also contributed to improved
activities in the sector. Consequently, industrial production in
the review quarter indicated a marginal increase over the
level in the preceding quarter. At 98.2 (2010=100), the
estimated index of industrial production rose by 2.5 per cent

5 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision
Industrial activities
improved in the
review quarter due to
increase in
employment, output
and new orders.
S/N
Participating Banks
Amt Disbursed (N billion)
Amount Repaid (N billion)

Access Bank Plc
36.66
29.26

Citibank Plc
3.00
3.00

Diamond Baqnk Plc
4.85
3.95

ECOBANK
6.38
6.38

FCMB Plc.
18.53
9.22

Fidelity Bank Plc
23.67
12.98

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
50.52
35.50

GTBank Plc
39.85
17.53

Heritage Bank Plc
6.81
2.36

Keystone Bank
30.05
3.97

Jaiz Bank Plc
2.00
0.00

Polaris Bank Plc
13.77
11.73

Stanbic IBTC Bank
28.10
18.88

Sterling Bank Plc
72.17
25.29

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
83.06
51.52

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
28.91
19.11

Unity Bank Plc
29.80
12.95

Wema Bank
3.24
1.30

Zenith Bank
122.66
73.23

Suntrust Bank Ltd
1.85
0.25
TOTAL
605.9
338.4


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

above the level in the preceding quarter. The increase
reflected improved activities in all sub-sectors of the industy.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 183.1
(2010=100), in the first quarter of 2019 showed an increase of
1.0 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding
quarter. The improvement was due to continued expansion in
consumer demand and moderated input prices (Figure11).
The estimated index of mining production, at 59.1 (2010=100),
declined by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, compared
with the level attained in the fourth quarter of 2018. The
decline reflected the fall in crude oil and gas production.
(Figure 11, Table 11).
Electricity generation improved during the review quarter. At
3,908.0 MW/h, average estimated electricity generation rose
by 1.2 per cent, compared with the level at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2018. The increase was attributed to
improvement in gas supply to thermal stations as well as
increase in water level at the hydro stations.
At 3,270.0 MW/h, average estimated electricity consumption
increased by 2.3 per cent, compared with the level attained
in the preceding quarter. The increase was attributed to
improvement in the transmission network.


Figure 11 : Index of Industrial Production (2010=100) 6

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

6 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015
Average electricity
generation and
consumption improved
in the review quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 11: Index of Industrial Production

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining
79.8

73.7
89.1
59.1

Source: Staff Estimate
4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.84 mbd in the review quarter.
This represented a decrease of 1.6 per cent, compared with
1.87 mbd produced in the preceding quarter. The decline in
production was attributed to pipeline disruptions at major oil
installations in the country. Crude oil export which averaged
1.39 mbd, declined by 2.1 per cent, compared with 1.42 mbd
recorded in the preceding quarter. Allocation of crude oil for
domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 41.4 million barrels in
the review period.
The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the
Bonny Light (37° API) fell to US$64.80/b in the first quarter of
2019, compared with US$69.89/b in the fourth quarter of 2018.
This represented a decline of 7.3 per cent and 5.4 per cent,
compared with the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The decline in
price was attributed to increased U.S. crude oil inventories
and weaker demand for crude oil in the global market, arising
mainly from weak Chinese factory activity. The UK Brent at
US$62.96/b, Forcados at US$64.75/b and WTI at US$53.41/b
exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light.
The average price of OPEC basket of fifteen selected crude
streams was US$62.72/b in the first quarter of 2019. This
represented a decline of 7.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent,
compared with the levels recorded in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively (Figure 12,
Table 12).

Crude oil and natural
gas production declined
in the first quarter of
2019.
Crude oil export declined
in Q1 2019.
Average crude oil prices,
including Bonny Light
(37° API) fell in the
international crude oil
market in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 12: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters

4.6
Consumer Prices7
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at endMarch 2019, was 280.8 (November 2009=100), indicating a 2.3
per cent and 11.3 per cent increase over the levels in the
fourth quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively. The development was attributed to increase in
both food and non-food categories.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) stood at 285.0
at end-March 2019, representing 2.3 per cent and 11.5 per
cent increase, compared with the levels at end-December
2018 and end-March 2018, respectively. The rural all-items CPI
(November 2009=100), was 277.4 at end-March 2019,
representing 2.2 per cent and 11.0 per cent increase,
compared with the levels at end-December 2018 and the

7 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the
2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH October 2010. All values are staff estmates.

Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket
The general price level
declined in Q1 2019
below the level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

corresponding period of 2018, respectively (Figure 13, Table
13).
The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent) was
estimated at 303.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019,
compared with the 296.4 per cent and 271.8 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively.
Figure 13: Consumer Price Index


Source: NBS

Table 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Composite

Urban


278.5

Rural


Headline inflation stood at 11.25 per cent at end-March 2019,
compared with 11.44 per cent and 14.98 per cent at the end
of the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of
2018, respectively. The 12-Month Moving Average (12MMA)
inflation for the first quarter of 2019 was 11.40 per cent,
compared with 12.10 per cent and 15.81 per cent in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively (Figure 14, Table 14).

Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural
The headline inflation
(y-o-y) stood at 11.25
per cent in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 14: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS
Table 14: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year

Source: NBS


Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments8
On quarter-on-quarter basis, foreign exchange inflow and outflow
through the CBN in the first quarter of 2019 both rose by 17.9 per
cent and 8.1 per cent, relative to the levels in the fourth quarter of
2018. Total non-oil export proceeds received through banks rose by
14.9 per cent, compared with the level at end-December 2018. The
average exchange rate at the ’investors’ and ‘exporters’ window,
the BDC and the inter-bank segment of the foreign exchange
market
were
N362.07/US$,
N359.97/US$
and
N306.84/US$,
respectively, in the review quarter. At US$44.74 billion, the gross
external reserves rose by 5.2 per cent above the level at endDecember 2018.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
The external sector remained relatively stable as a result of
increase in non-oil receipts in the review quarter. However, the
international price and local production of crude oil,
declined. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN amounted to US$18.64 billion, and indicated 17.9 per
cent and 31.3 per cent increase over the levels in the fourth
quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2018,
respectively, reflecting the rise in non-oil receipts.
Aggregate outflow through the CBN, rose to US$17.29 billion,
indicating 8.1 per cent and 79.2 per cent increase above the
levels in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the corresponding
period of 2018, respectively. The increase in outflow relative to
the preceding quarter, reflected rise in inter-bank utilisation,
drawings on letters of credit, external debt service and foreign
exchange special payment. Overall, a net inflow of US$1.35
billion was recorded through the Bank, in contrast to a net
outflow of US$0.19 billion in the preceding quarter, but a net
inflow of US$4.54 billion in the corresponding period of 2018
(Figure 15, Table 15).


8 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign
exchange utilisation are provisional and subject to change
Foreign exchange inflow
and outflow through the
CBN rose, resulting in a
net inflow of US$1.35
billion in Q1 of 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 15: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN


Source: CBN
Table 15: Foreign Exchange Flows through the CBN (US$ million)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Inflow
9,355.29

11,984.05

14,708.45

14,194.10

13,822.78

12,949.01

15,815.40

18,642.75

Outflow
9,048.62

9,343.06

8,444.27

9,651.78

13,290.53

16,931.36

16,002.49

17,293.60

Netflow
306.67

2,640.99

6,264.18

4,542.32

532.25

(3,982.36)

(187.09)

1,349.15


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy
amounted to US$35.28 billion in the first quarter of 2019,
indicating an increase of 15.5 per cent and 15.0 per cent,
compared with the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development
was as a result of the 17.9 per cent and 12.9 per cent increase
in inflow through the Central Bank of Nigeria and autonomous
sources. Oil sector receipts, which accounted for US$2.90
billion, indicated a decline of 28.9 per cent and 17.4 per cent,
compared with the levels at the end of preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$15.74 billion (44.6 per cent
of the total), rose by 30.1 per cent and 47.4 per cent, over the
levels at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively. Autonomous
inflow, at US$16.64 billion, rose by 12.9 per cent and 0.9 per
-10,000
-5,000


Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous inflow
into the economy rose
by 12.9 per cent in Q1
2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

cent above the levels at the end of the preceding quarter of
2018 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
Inflow from autonomous sources accounted for 47.2 per cent
of the total.
At US$17.88 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy rose by 0.9 per cent and 66.7 per cent over the
levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period
of 2017, respectively. The development, relative to the
preceding quarter was driven, mainly, by 8.1 per cent rise in
outflow through the CBN. Thus, foreign exchange flows
through the economy resulted in a net inflow of US$17.40
billion in the review quarter, compared with US$12.83 billion
and US$19.95 billion in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks
during the review period amounted to US$1.26 billion,
representing an increase of 14.9 per cent and 41.2 per cent
relative to the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter in 2018, respectively. The development
was due, mainly, to the respective increases in all sub-sectors
in the review quarter. The rise in earnings from non-oil export
was due to 13.8 per cent, 19.1 per cent, 12.8 per cent, 16.8
per
cent
and
18.4
per
cent
increase
in
minerals,
manufactured products, agricultural products, industrial sector
and food products sub-sectors, respectively, to US$0.75 billion,
US$0.19 billion, US$0.16 billion, US$0.14 billion and US$0.03
billion in the review quarter.
The shares of the various sectors in non-oil export proceeds
were: minerals, 59.2 per cent; manufactured products; 15.1
per cent; agricultural products, 12.4 per cent; industrial sector,
10.8 per cent; and food products, 2.5 per cent.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Aggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the first
quarter of 2019 stood at US$8.74 billion, indicating a decline of
22.0 per cent, compared with the level at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2018, but contrasted with the increase of 15.6
per cent above the level at the end of the corresponding
period of 2018. The invisible sector accounted for the bulk
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed in Q1 2019.
Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
rose in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

(57.0%) of total foreign exchange disbursed in the review
quarter, followed by the industrial sector (19.2%). Others were:
manufactured products, 9.5 per cent; food products, 7.2 per
cent; minerals and oil, 4.9 per cent; transport, 1.7 per cent;
and agricultural sector, 0.5 per cent (Figure16).
Figure 16: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange Source: CBN

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$11.81 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised
dealers in the first quarter of 2019. This represented 10.2 per
cent increase above the level in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The development, relative to the preceding quarter, reflected
the increase in inter-bank sales and swaps transactions in the
review quarter.
Of the total, foreign exchange forwards disbursed at maturity
was US$2.30 billion (19.5 per cent); sales to BDCs, US$3.64
billion (30.8 per cent); I&E window, US$1.53 billion (13.0 per
cent); interbank sales, US$0.55 billion (4.6 per cent); swaps
transactions, US$1.14 billion (9.7 per cent); SMIS intervention,
US$1.40 billion (11.8 per cent); wholesale forwards intervention,
US$1.00 (8.4 per cent); and SME intervention, US$0.26 (2.2 per
cent).


Agricultural
Transport
Food
Manufactures
Minerals & Oil
Industrial
Invisibles
percent of total
Q1-19
Q4-18
Q3-18
Supply of foreign
exchange to
authorised dealers
rose in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 17: Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Source: CBN

Table 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Forward

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)

Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the inter-bank and
the BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the
review quarter. However, the average exchange rate of the
naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the inter-bank segment
depreciated by 0.04 per cent to N306.84/US$, relative to the
level at end-December 2018. At the BDC segment, the
average exchange rate, appreciated by 0.7 per cent above
the level in the preceding quarter to N359.97/US$.
Similarly, at the I&E window, the average exchange rate stood
at N362.07/US$, representing 0.6 per cent appreciation
relative to the level in the preceding quarter. Consequently,
the premium between the average inter-bank and BDC rates
narrowed by 0.8 percentage point in the review quarter, from
18.1 percentage points at the end of the fourth quarter of
2018 to 17.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. However, the
premium between the average exchange rates at the
“Investors” and “Exporters” window and the BDC segment
The average naira
exchange rate vis-à-vis the
US dollar depreciated at
the inter-bank segment,
while it appreciated at the
BDC segment and I&E
Window in Q1 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

widened by 0.1 percentage point to 0.58 percentage point at
the end of the first quarter of 2019 (Figure 18, Table 17).
Figure 18: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Av. I & E
Av. BDC
Av. Interbank (RHS)
N/US$

Source: CBN


Table 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Investors and Exporters Window
N/A

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
I&E/Interbank
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN

Figure 19: Exchange Rate Premium


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Source: CBN

5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves were US$44.74 billion at end-March
2019. This indicated an increase of 5.2 per cent above the
level in the fourth quarter of 2018. The external reserves
position would cover 7.9 months of import of goods and
services or 14.4 months of import of goods only, based on the
estimated value of import for the fourth quarter of 2018. A
breakdown of the official external reserves by ownership
showed that CBN reserves stood at US$38.02 billion (85.0 per
cent), Federal Government reserves, US$6.68 billion (14.9 per
cent) and the Federation reserves, US$0.40 billion (0.1 per
cent) (Figure 20, Table 18).


Figure 20 : Gross Official External Reserves


Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
US$ million


Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Per cent
Interbank/BDC
Interbank/BDC
Gross external
reserves rose in the
first quarter of 2019.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 18: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
External Reserves
39,353.5

46,730.5

47,157.9

42,609.0

42.542.82
44,744.6


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Global growth was projected at 3.6 per cent for 2018 and 3.3
per cent 2019 due to suppressed activity in early 2018 in some
key advanced economies. Others were the negative effects
of the trade war between the United States and China, as well
as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and
developing economies, arising from country-specific factors,
tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher
oil import bills.

Growth in major advanced economies was projected at 1.8
per cent in 2019, marginally lower than the actual 2.2 per cent
for 2018. However, growth was expected to decline to 1.7 per
cent in 2020 as the US tax cuts are partially reversed, and was
to grow to 1.5 per cent in the medium-term as working-age
population growth continues to slow. In the United States,
growth was expected to soften to 2.3 per cent in 2019 due to
the recently introduced trade measures and is expected to
drop to 1.9 per cent in 2020 as the fiscal stimulus begins to
unwind. Short-term profiles of country-specific growth rates
vary, among the economies.

In the emerging market and developing economies, growth
was expected to remain steady at 4.4 per cent in 2019, down
from 4.5 per cent in 2018, and to rise modestly over the
medium-term. The growth prospects of many energy exporters
have been lifted by higher oil prices, but growth was revised
down for Argentina, Iran, and Turkey, among others, reflecting
country-specific
factors,
tighter
financial
conditions,
geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. Consequently,
growth in China is projected to moderate from 6.6 per cent in
2018 to 6.3 per cent in 2019, reflecting slow growth in external
demand and unnecessary financial regulatory tightening.

In sub-Sahara Africa, growth was on the mend, with the
region’s average growth projected at 3.5 per cent in 2019
from 3.0 per cent in 2018. The increase was attributed to
stronger global growth, higher commodity prices, and
improved capital market access, following efforts to improve
fiscal balances in the aftermath of the commodity price


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

slump. Growth performance varies, however, across countries,
within the region. This was on the backdrop of improved
prospects for the largest economy, Nigeria, which accounted
for about half of the expected pickup in growth between
2017 and 2018. Nigeria’s growth was projected to increase
from 0.8 per cent in 2017 to 1.9 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per
cent in 2019 occasioned by the impact of recovering oil
production and prices.

6.2 Global Inflation
Headline inflation, in advanced economies, for example, the
United States, eased to 1.5 per cent in February 2019 from 1.6
per cent in January 2019. This was due to a significant drop in
the volatile energy index, following a fall in gasoline and fuel
costs.
In the euro area, headline inflation stood at 1.5 per cent in
February 2019, but slightly above January's nine-month low of
1.4 per cent. Among Eurozone's largest economies, the
highest inflation rate was recorded in Germany (1.7 per cent),
followed by France (1.6 per cent), Spain (1.1 per cent) and
Italy (1.1 per cent).
In emerging markets and developing economies, headline
inflation in China rose by 1.0 per cent over the preceding
month’s level. The rise was driven, mainly, by higher prices for
food, especially fresh vegetables, partially reflecting the
Chinese New Year holiday, which fell in early February this
year. In Brazil, inflation rose by 0.32 per cent in January over
the level recorded in the preceding month, due to higher
prices for food and beverages. In sub-Saharan Africa, inflation
remains unchanged in February at January’s 8.4 per cent
level, reflecting largely softer food inflation in countries such as
Angola and Nigeria. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures are
expected to be receding due to exchange rate stability and
central banks’ relative hawkish stance.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Global crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at
100.49 mbd, representing an increase of 0.5 per cent,
compared with the level in the preceding quarter of 2018.
World crude oil demand was estimated at an average of
99.02 mbd, indicating a 1.0 per cent decline below the level in


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

the fourth quarter of 2018. The fall in crude oil demand was
attributed to lower demand from OECD America, Europe,
Latin America, the Middle East and OECD Asia Pacific in the
review quarter.
6.4
International Financial Markets
Developments in the international stock markets were
generally mixed in the first quarter of 2019. In North America,
the United States S&P 500, Canadian S&P/TSX Composite and
Mexican Bolsa indices increased by 11.6 per cent, 12.2 per
cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively. In South America, the
Brazilian Bovespa Stock, Argentine Merval and Columbian
COLCAP indices increased by 2.9 per cent, 6.7 per cent and
19.8 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, the UK FTSE 100, France CAC 40 and Germany DAX
indices increased by 6.7 per cent, 11.2 per cent and 7.2 per
cent, respectively. Similarly, in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s
Shanghai Stock Exchange-A and India’s BSE Sensex indices
increased by 4.8, 23.5 and 4.8 per cent, respectively.
6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the first
quarter of 2019 included: The 2019 World Economic Forum
(WEF) held at Davos, Switzerland from January 22 – 25, 2019
with the theme: Globalisation 4.0: Shaping a Global
Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution'’.
The annual meeting included several sessions on issues relating
to the global economy, energy, technology, leadership,
natural
resources,
sustainable
growth,
health
and
environment, among others. The WEF 2019 annual meeting
was based on the following five working principles:

Dialogue is critical and must be based on multistakeholder engagements;

Globalization must be responsible and responsive to
regional and national concerns;

International coordination must be improved in the
absence of multilateral cooperation;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Addressing the biggest global challenges requires the
collaborative efforts of business, government and the
civil society; and

Global growth must be inclusive and sustainable.
The 39th Meeting of the Technical Committee of the West
African Institute for Financial and Economic Management
(WAIFEM) was held in Gold Coast City, Accra, Ghana on
February 3, 2019. The purpose of the Meeting was to review
WAIFEM’s work-programme for 2019 and other administrative
issues at the Institute for the financial year 2018. The Institute’s
progress report was presented under seven (7) main headings,
namely: Training and Capacity Building Activities; Business
Development and Consultancy Unit (BD&CU); E-Learning
Programmes;
Research
Department;
Administrative
Developments; International Relations; Outlook for the next six
months; and Conclusion.
The 44th Meeting of the Technical Committee (TC) of the West
African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) was held in Gold Coast City,
Accra, Ghana from February 4 - 5, 2019. The objective of the
Meeting was to deliberate on the status of implementation of
the WAMZ work programme, as well as, activities under the
ECOWAS Single Currency Programme. The meeting urged
member countries to:

Deepen structural reforms and diversify their economic
base given the strong linkages between structural
reforms and macroeconomic development;

Address the multiple legal and regulatory constraints as
well as infrastructure and logistic weaknesses to
capitalise on the potential competitive advantage in
several manufacturing subsectors, which if nurtured
could accelerate industrialisation;

Monitor infrastructure development in the region, which
are financed by external borrowing to ensure that
revenue streams (generated in local currencies) were
adequate to meet debt obligations when they fall due;

Put in place better revenue regimes, including
progressive elimination of the vast array of exemptions
and leakages that drain tax systems, to capture the
gains from growth and rapid structural change that
some countries were experiencing;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Intensify efforts to ensure the provision of reliable trade
statistics,
improve
coordination
among
agencies
responsible for the implementation of trade and traderelated issues as well as the provision of adequate
funding to enable the responsible institutions in Member
States meet their targets and or deliverables; and

Deepen and broaden sensitisation on the ECOWAS
Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) to enable more
companies participate in the Scheme. Member States
were also encouraged to harmonise trade policies with
the protocols of the ETLS and the CET as well as to
encourage proper identification and automation of the
ETLS products and the CET tariff lines, among others.
The 2018 End-of-Year Statutory meetings of the West African
Monetary Agency (WAMA) was held in Dakar, Senegal from
February 18 - 21, 2019. The Technical Committee reviewed the
following documents and presented recommendations for
approval to the Committee of Governors:

Director General’s Progress Report;

Report
on
the
ECOWAS
Monetary
Cooperation
Programme for 2018;

Report on Exchange Rate Developments of ECOWAS
Currencies at end-December 2018;

Study on the effectiveness of the interest rate channel
of
monetary
policy
transmission
mechanism
in
ECOWAS; and

Proposed WAMA Budget and Work Programme 2019.
The 2019 meeting of Experts of the African Union (AU) 3rd
Specialised Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary
Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration was held at the
Palais des Congress in Yaoundé, Cameroon, from March 4 - 6,
2019. The Meeting was held under the theme “Public Policies
for Productive Transformation” and “Capacity Building for the
Formulation of Public Policies for Productive Transformation”.
Discussions made during the meeting were under the
following sub-themes:

Evaluation
of
Regional
Integration:
African
Multidimensional Regional Integration Index (AMRII) &
Status of Regional Integration in Africa;


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Progress Report on the Establishment of the AU
Financial Institutions and their Roles in Fostering
Productive Transformation;

Report of the Experts Group on the Refinement of the
Convergence
Criteria
of
the
African
Monetary
Cooperation Programme (AMCP);

Proposal of a Monitoring Framework and a Peer Review
Mechanism for Macroeconomic Convergence;

Progress Report on Statistical Development in Africa;

Agenda 2063 First-Ten Year Implementation Plan,
Monitoring and Evaluation;

Status and Progress Report on the Financing of the
Union;

Report of the Workshop on the Role of Capital Markets
in Mobilising Domestic Resources in Africa;

Update on the Establishment of the African Continental
Free Trade -Area (ACFTA);

Inclusive Labour Market Governance for Productive
Transformation (for information);

APRM Support to Member States in the Field of Rating
Agencies;

Revenue Statistics; and

Status of Africa Population Report: A Common African
Position on Population (for information).
Finally, the intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on
International Monetary Affairs and Development (G-24),
Technical Group Meeting (TGM), was held in Lima, Peru from
March 14 - 15, 2019. The following issues were discussed at the
meeting:

Coping with Global Uncertainties and the Global
Financial Safety Net;

Global Financial Governance and Development;

Managing Sustainable Investments and Growth: Some
Perspectives;

Combating Illicit Financial Flows;

Taxation Challenges: A Focus on the Digital Economy;

Ensuring Adequate Social Safety Nets; and

Fiscal Reforms and Governance.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Domestic Credit (Net)
25,863.30

8,683.90

25,568.20

26,408.42

27,594.15

17,774.87

Claims on Federal Government (Net)
3,640.93

4,930.75

3,286.30

3,440.99

4,867.58

6,354.52

Central Bank (Net)
(353.56)

1,643.93

23,409.80

(91.46)

342.21

1,847.76

Banks
3,994.49

3,286.82

3,262.90

3,532.45

4,525.37

4,506.75

Claims on Private Sector
22,290.66

22,363.23

22,281.90

22,967.43

22,726.57

24,163.42

Central Bank
5,870.69

6,258.21

6,420.40

6,431.58

6,574.67

7,737.45

Banks
15,515.56

15,129.61

15,861.50

16,535.85

16,151.89

16,425.98

Claims on Other Private Sector
20,718.30

20,466.19

20,489.00

21,173.75

21,128.07

22,362.45

Central Bank
5,202.74

5,336.57

5,599.80

5,730.19

5,873.28

6,852.53

Banks
15,515.56

15,129.60

14,889.20

15,443.56

15,254.79

15,509.92

Claims on State and Local Government
1,544.83

1,631.93

1,628.80

1,341.87

1,553.64

1,578.20

Central Bank
640.43

656.53

656.50

656.53

656.53

662.13

Banks
904.40

975.40

972.30

685.34

897.11

916.07

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
'--
Central Bank
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
'--
DMBs
'--
'--
'--
'--
'--
'--
Foreign Assets (Net)
15,520.76

16,316.80

18,337.50

18,815.94

18,397.82

17,023.15

Central Bank
15,134.60

15,918.20

17,844.10

18,277.81

18,181.45

16,584.59

Banks
386.10

398.70

493.50

538.13

216.37

438.57

Other Assets (Net)
(10,294.80)

(10,463.70)

(10,091.00)

(14,373.29)

(12,570.23)

(12,743.07)

Money Supply (M3)
31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

30,851.05

33,421.74

34,798.03

Quasi-Money 1/
12,965.10

13,390.40

14,112.90

14,802.98

15,327.69

15,502.43

Money Supply (M1)
11,175.60

11,034.00

10,701.10

10,757.68

11,751.14

11,028.86

Currency Outside Banks
1,782.70

1,668.40

1,519.90

1,601.88

1,913.24

1,839.91

Demand Deposits 2/
9,392.90

9,365.60

9,181.20

9,155.79

9,837.90

9,188.95

Money Supply (M2)
24,140.60

24,424.40

24,814.00

25,560.66

27,078.83

26,531.29

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors
7,016.90

8,722.70

9,000.70

5,290.39

6,342.91

8,266.74

Money Supply (M3)
31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

30,851.05

33,421.74

34,798.03

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
6,484.30

6,755.70

6,360.50

6,802.56

7,135.73

7,166.90

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
2,157.20

2,039.30

1,900.70

1,926.38

2,329.71

2,241.31

Banks' Deposit with CBN
4,327.10

4,716.40

4,459.80

4,876.17

4,806.02

4,925.58


Source: CBN


1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Money Assets (M2)
9.96
1.18
1.6

12.1
-2.0
CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
16.63
4.19
-5.85

10.1
0.4
Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector
1.4
0.33
-0.04

1.5
1.5
Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Money Supply (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

Source: CBN

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.
*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Q4-18
Q1-19
Retained Revenue
884.88

1,120.58

1,053.49

1,121.55

798.82

Federation Account
758.47

767.48

824.40

828.66

709.03

VAT Pool Account
38.89

38.02

40.28

39.80

43.43

FGN Independent Revenue
72.05

147.58

85.54

90.03

38.80

Excess Crude
-

-

-

-

-

Others
15.47

167.51

103.27

163.06

7.56

Expenditure
2,213.73

1,598.07

1,923.69

1,834.69

1,197.04

Recurrent
1,464.34

1,252.03

1,618.22

1,335.45

854.92

Capital
635.28

231.93

191.36

385.13

275.55

Transfers
114.11

114.11

114.11

114.11

66.57

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(1,328.86)

(477.49)

(870.21)

(713.13)

(398.22)


*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter