This document is for CBN internal consumption


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


Third Quarter

i


ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report presents economic
developments in Nigeria, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which is
published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the Nigerian
economy, as well as on global issues that impact the domestic economy. In
addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors, and the
public. Free download of the Report, including current and past issues are
available from the CBN website www.cbn.gov.ng. All inquiries concerning the
Report should be directed to the Director of Research, Central Bank of Nigeria,
P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.


Content

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS .. 41


iii


2.4.6. Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy...67
3.0
3.1


Tables
Table 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) .... .4
Table 3: Dollar-based Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria’s Major
Table 6: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the Three -Tiers
Table 9: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December .... 44
Table 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian


Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing Economies


iv


Figure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to Food
Figure 20: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC quota
Figure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition (₦ Billion)
Figure 24: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument ... 40
Figure 26: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier
Figure 27: Growth in Reserve Money (Over Preceding December)
Figure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index..52
Figure 38: Percentage Contribution of Total Bonds Market Value..53
Figure 39:Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in per cent for sectoral indicies
Figure 40:Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX .... 55


v


Figure 46: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow (US$
Figure 48: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy (US$


1 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

SUMMARY
In Q32024, global economic activity decelerated driven, primarily, by a
downturn in the manufacturing sector. Within the Advanced Economies (AEs)
and several Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs),
economic performance exhibited a mixed trajectory, largely influenced by
country-specific dynamics. Inflation eased across most AEs and EMDEs, the
drop in energy and gasoline prices. The performance of financial markets
varied across region, shaped, largely, by expectations of further interest rate
cuts. The global bonds market softened in response to rate reductions by the
Federal Reserve and other central banks. The spot price of Bonny Light crude
decreased to US$82.23 per barrel (pb), from US$86.97 pb in Q22024
reflecting the weak growth in global oil demand. Similar downward trends were
observed in the prices of Brent, Forcados, WTI, and OPEC Reference Basket.
The domestic economy grew by 3.46 per cent in Q32024, in the review quarter
driven, mainly, by the growth of the non-oil sector. Inflation moderated to
32.70 per cent from 34.19 per cent in the preceding quarter driven by a fall in
the food component of the CPI basket, and the Bank’s restrictive policy
stance. Domestic crude oil production rose to 1.33 million barrels per day
(mbpd), from 1.27 mbpd in the preceding quarter, reflecting improved security
around the pipeline infrastructure in the Niger Delta region.
Provisional data showed an expansion in fiscal operations in Q32024,
following higher receipt from non-oil sources. Federally collected revenue rose
by 7.48 per cent, relative to the level in Q22024, but fell short of the benchmark
by 23.71 per cent. Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) retained revenue
was below the level in Q22024 and the quarterly target. Similarly, the FGN
aggregate expenditure dipped by 16.26 and 22.38 per cent below the levels
in Q22024 and the quarterly target, respectively. Thus, the fiscal deficit
contracted by 22.51 per cent in Q32024, but widened by 43.88 per cent,
compared with the quarterly target.
Monetary aggregates trended upwards due to increased credit to key sectors
of the economy and the effect of exchange rate revaluation. Broad money
supply expanded, resulting from the growth in both net foreign assets (NFA)

2 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

and net domestic assets (NDA). Key short-term interest rates were stable and
reflected the liquidity dynamics in the banking system. Activities in the
Nigerian equities market slowed, in response to rising interest rate, reflecting
the preference for fixed income securities, due to its attractive yields.
The external sector performance showed improvement in Q32024, due to a
higher trade surplus and remittances inflow. The financial account recorded a
higher net acquisition of financial assets, driven largely by higher foreign
currency and deposit holdings by residents and accretion to external reserves.
At US$39.29 billion, the level of external reserves could cover 8.91 months of
import for goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only. The average
exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per cent to ₦1,588.64/US$,
from ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024.


3 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity slowed in Q32024, as the decline in
manufacturing sectors outweighed the rise in services. Within the
advanced economies (AEs) and in many emerging markets and
developing economies (EMDEs), mixed patterns were observed,
owing to country-specific factors. Inflation moderated in most AEs
and EMDEs in Q32024, following the decline in energy and
gasoline prices. Financial markets recorded mixed performances
across regions, due, largely to the anticipation of further rate cuts
by the Fed and other central banks. The global bonds market
slowed in the review quarter as most central banks adopted an
accommodative policy stance, signalling the onset of policy
normalisation.
1.1
Global Economic Activity
Global economic activity fell in Q32024, following a decline in
manufacturing sector, which outweighed the rise in services
sector. The global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
decreased to 52.43 index points in Q32024 from 52.90 index points in
Q22024, though it remained within the expansion region. The decline
was attributed to a fall in employment level, new business orders, new
export orders, future output and output prices.


Global
Economic
Activity
Summary

4 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Table 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Composite (Output)
52.30
52.90
52.43
Employment Level
50.90
51.30
50.40
New Business Orders
52.10
52.00
51.67
New Export Business Orders
49.80
49.60
48.97
Future Output
63.80
62.10
61.27
Input Prices
56.60
56.30
56.63
Output Prices
53.80
52.80
52.47


Manufacturing
50.60
50.90
49.37
Services (Business Activity)
52.40
53.10
53.33
New Business
52.50
52.40
52.83
New Export Business
50.60
50.60
50.93
Future Activity
64.30
63.10
61.87
Employment
51.20
51.50
50.70
Outstanding Business
49.20
50.00
49.60
Input Prices
58.10
56.70
57.40
Prices Charged
54.70
53.00
52.87
Source: JP Morgan

A mixed trend was experienced in AEs owing to country-specific
idiosyncrasies. The PMI in the UK expanded further to 53.07 index
points in Q32024 from 52.30 index points in the preceding quarter,
buoyed by the continued rise in new orders as both services and
manufacturing sectors expanded. Economic activities in Japan and
France moved from contraction territory, rising to 52.47 and 50.27 index
points in Q32024, respectively, from 49.70 and 48.80 index points in
the preceding quarter. In Japan, the expansion was driven by increased
new orders in the services sector, while activity in France was bolstered
by the Olympic Games leading to a sharp upswing in the country's
services sector, especially in August 2024. At 54.30 index points, the
economic activity in the US expanded slowly in Q32024 relative to the
54.80 index points in the preceding quarter, as the contraction of the
manufacturing sector deepened.
Economic
Activity in
Advanced
Economies

5 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Economic activity, however, contracted in Germany and Italy
contracted as the PMI declined to 44.37 and 49.30 index points in
Q32024, relative to 50.40 and 51.30 index points in Q22024. In
Germany, the contraction was attributed to a broad-based decline in
demand, while that of Italy was due, largely, to the decline in
manufacturing sector output. Canada’s PMI level declined from 47.50
index points in the preceding quarter to 47.27 index points in Q32024,
on account of a fall in service sector new business.
Figure 1: Selected Advanced Economies’ PMIs

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.

Economic activity in EMDEs was also mixed during the review
quarter. Economic activity gained momentum in Brazil as the PMI rose
to 54.70 index points in Q32024 from 54.10 index points in the
preceding quarter driven, largely, by the rise in services and
manufacturing activities as new business inflows surged. Similarly,
economic activities in South Africa and Russia expanded as the PMI
rose to 50.27 and 51.13 index points in Q32024, respectively, from
49.20 and 49.80 index points in Q22024. The expansion was supported
by the strong growth in the services sector and a faster rise in new
orders in Russia, as well as improved demand conditions in South
Africa.

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
FRANCE
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
50-point Threshold
Economic
activity in
EMDEs

6 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

China and India recorded slower expansions as the PMI stood at 50.90
and 59.90 index points, respectively, in Q32024 from 52.80 and 60.90
index points in Q22024, due to a decline in new orders from both
domestic and international demand in the two countries.
PMI in Indonesia and Mexico, however, contracted to 49.13 and 48.47
index points, respectively, in Q32024 from 50.70 and 51.10 index points
in the preceding quarter. While the contraction was driven by a decline
in factory activities in Indonesia, declines in new orders, production and
employment were the drivers in Mexico. In Q32024, subdued demand
from international market led to the broad-based slowdown of
economic activity in Turkey, as the PMI contracted further to 46.43
index points from 47.90 index points in the preceding quarter.

Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.
Note: Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI.

1.2 Global Inflation
Global inflation pressure moderated in AEs, but varied across
EMDEs in Q32024 driven, largely, by decline in energy prices.
Inflation in the US decelerated to 2.40 per cent in Q32024 from 3.00
per cent in the preceding quarter on account of moderation in energy

CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH
AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
50-point Threshold
Global
Inflation

7 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

and transportation costs. The UK’s inflation fell to 1.70 per cent in the
review period from 2.00 per cent in the previous quarter eased by falling
transportation costs, particularly, air fares and motor fuels. Similarly,
inflation in Germany moderated to 1.60 per cent in Q32024 from 2.20
per cent in the preceding quarter, decline in goods and energy costs.
Inflation in Japan moderated to 2.50 per cent in Q32024, from 2.80 per
cent in the preceding quarter, owing to the lower prices of food,
communication, furniture and household utensils.
In Italy and Spain inflation decelerated to 0.70 and 1.50 per cent,
respectively, in Q32024, from 0.80 and 3.40 per cent in the preceding
quarter. The development followed decline in regulated energy and
transportation costs as the countries continued to secure new power
supply, following the persisting Russia-Ukraine war. France and
Canada also recorded lower inflation to 1.10 and 1.60 per cent,
respectively, from 2.20 and 2.70 per cent due to a reduction in the costs
of petroleum product and the prices of manufactured products.
Figure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics

Inflation trends varied across EMDEs. Inflation in Indonesia declined
to 1.84 per cent in Q32024 from 2.51 per cent in the preceding quarter,
driven by declines in the costs of food, transport, clothing, and

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
Germany
FRANCE
JAPAN
CANADA
ITALY
SPAIN
Q3 2023
Q2 2024
Q3 2024

8 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

communication. Similarly, Turkey recorded a significant moderation in
inflation to 49.38 per cent in Q32024, from 71.60 per cent in the
preceding quarter, due to base effects and a broad easing across the
sub-indexes. Inflation in Mexico reduced to 4.58 per cent in Q32024
from 4.98 per cent due, largely, to sustained easing of prices for food
and non-alcoholic beverages. South Africa’s inflation fell to 3.8 per cent
in Q32024 from 5.1 per cent in the preceding quarter, due to decrease
in transportation cost. In Russia, inflation remained unchanged at 8.60
per cent as in the previous quarter, steadied by the contractionary
monetary policy stance.

Inflation in India and Brazil, however, rose to 5.49 and 4.42 per cent,
respectively, in Q32024 from 5.08 and 4.23 per cent in the preceding
quarter, on account of increases in the prices of food and beverages,
and the costs of airfares and ethanol. Similarly, China’s inflation rose to
0.40 per cent from 0.27 per cent, due to rising food prices.
Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics


INDIA
INDONESIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
BRAZIL
CHINA
MEXICO
RUSSIA
TURKEY
Q3 2023
Q2 2024
Q3 2024

9 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

1.3
Global Financial Markets
1.3.1 Global Financial Conditions
The performance of financial markets varied across regions in
Q32024 due, largely, to the moderation in inflation and the
anticipation of further rate cuts. Stock markets in AEs remained
resilient supported by strong sustained optimism around artificial
intelligence (AI), moderating inflation pressures, and the anticipated
rate cuts by most central banks.
The EURO STOXX rebounded by 11.33 per cent, reflecting a recovery
from previous stock selloffs, owing to improved economic conditions
and rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Similarly, German
DAX delivered a 5.85 per cent return to investors. There were
expansions in the Italian FTSE MIB (2.93%), France CAC 40 (2.76%)
and UK FTSE 100 (0.89%) for Q32024. The US stock market also
rallied on the back of optimism about the tech-sector of the economy,
especially around artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and
biotech industries. The 50-basis points rate cut by the US Fed further
strengthened the equities market, particularly, the US Dow Jones which
grew by 8.21 per cent, S&P 500, 5.53 per cent, and NASDAQ 100, 1.92
per cent. The Japanese TOPIX and NIKKEI indexes, however, fell by
5.83 and 4.20 per cent due, largely, to the unexpected 15 basis points
hike by the Bank of Japan as it transitioned from a long-standing ultraloose monetary stance in efforts to stimulate growth.
The performance of equities in EMDE’s also varied. South African
JALSH grew by 9.51 per cent buoyed by a market-friendly election
outcome. The Chinese SZI grew by 19.00 per cent, following
government’s promise of an aggressive stimulus plan, which included
rate cuts and support for the struggling real estate sector. Similarly,
Indian BSE SENSEX and Brazilian BOVESPA appreciated by 6.66 and

10 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

6.38 per cent, respectively, owing to positive investor sentiments in the
market.
Russian MOEX, however, declined by 9.26 per cent in Q32024, on
account of downturns in the energy and mining sectors, amid
geopolitical and economic challenges.

Figure 5: Growth rate of Key Global Stocks (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

Bond yields fell across AEs and EMDEs, following monetary
policy normalisation by most central banks on the heels of falling
inflation. In the US and Canada, the 10-year bond yield fell to 3.79 and
2.96 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 compared with 4.34 and 3.51
per cent in the preceding quarter, following investors’ expectation of
monetary easing in both countries. Similarly, the 10-year bond yield in
the UK and Euro area declined to 4.01 and 2.13 per cent, respectively,
in Q32024 relative to 4.18 and 2.49 per cent in the preceding quarter in
response to lower-than-expected inflation outcome and falling policy
rates which strengthened the expectation of further interest rate cuts by
BoE and ECB. The 10-year bond yield in Japan and Italy also fell to
0.86 and 3.47 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 from 1.05 and 4.07 per
cent in Q22024. The fall in the Japan’s and Italy’s bond yield was

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
2024Q2
2024Q3

11 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

supported
by
investors’
weariness
due
to
monetary
policy
normalisation.
In EMDEs, bond yield in India, Indonesia and Mexico declined to 6.75,
6.46, and 9.35 per cent, respectively, in Q32024 relative to 7.01, 7.05,
and 9.83 per cent in the preceding quarter. The decline was attributed
to softening labour market, amidst moderating inflation. Similarly, bond
yield declined in South Africa to 8.85 per cent in Q32024 from 9.99 per
cent in Q22024, following strong investors’ appetite for equities as gains
in resource-linked sectors continued. Bond yield in Russia also fell to
14.30 per cent from 15.11 per cent in the preceding quarter, amidst
geopolitical concerns, which dampened investors’ confidence. Yield,
however, rose in Turkey to 26.63 per cent in Q32024 from 26.52 per
cent in the preceding quarter, due to expectations of further interest rate
hike as inflation remained elevated.

The Chinese, Russian rubble, and the South African rand appreciated
by 0.67, 3.34, and 1.78 per cent, respectively, while the Nigerian naira
depreciated by 12.78 per cent against the US dollar, compared to their
levels in the preceding quarter. The appreciation of these currencies in
Q32024 reflected de-dollarization efforts by BRICS, sanctions driving
Russia toward RMB use, and supportive economic policies in China
and South Africa.
Emerging Market
Currencies

12 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 6: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank Nigeria and Reuters


Table 2: Selected EMDEs Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


1.4 Global Commodity Markets
The global crude oil market recorded an uptick in Q32024, due to by
increased supply from the US and Canada, as well as a marginal rise in
demand. The total crude oil supply, including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs),
increased slightly by 0.02 per cent to 102.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) in
Q32024, from 102.46 mbpd in the preceding quarter. This growth followed the
higher production in Canada, due to increased capital expenditures by oil

Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian Naira
South African Rand
Russian Ruble
Period
Chinese
RMB
Nigerian
naira
South
African
rand
Russian
rubble
Q32023

Q22024

Q32024

World Crude
Supply and
Demand

13 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

companies in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In addition, the resumption of the
Terra Nova offshore oil field in Newfoundland and Labrador, which had been
offline since 2019, contributed to the production boost.
Non-OPEC supply rose marginally by 0.28 per cent to 70.57 mbpd in Q32024
compared with 70.37 mbpd in the previous quarter due, to increased output in
Canada. OPEC supply, however, fell by 0.59 per cent to 31.90 mbpd in Q32024,
from 32.09 mbpd in the previous quarter, following reduced supplies from Libya,
Iraq, Gabon, Kuwait and Congo.
Analysis of the demand side showed a marginal 0.12 per cent increase to
103.25 mbpd in Q32024 compared with 103.13 mbpd in the preceding quarter
as demand for natural gas and other liquids increased. The increase reflected
the rising demand for jet fuel and gasoline, following a spike in passenger
travels during the summer season, especially in the US.

Figure 7: Total World Crude Supply and Demand

Source: Energy Information Administration

Crude oil spot prices decreased in Q32024 driven, mainly, by the increase
in global oil demand, despite supply disruptions in the Middle East. The
average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, Bonny Light, fell by 5.45 per
cent to US$82.23 per barrel (pb) in Q32024, from US$86.97 pb in the previous

mbpd
World Supply
World Demand
Crude Oil
Prices

14 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

quarter. Similar downward trends were observed in the prices of Brent
(US$81.66 pb), Forcados (US$83.55 pb), West Texas Intermediate (US$77.11
pb), and the OPEC Reference Basket (US$78.96 pb).

Figure 8: Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

In Q32024, the average spot prices of gold and silver increased, while
platinum and palladium declined. The average spot price of gold rose by 5.94
per cent to US$2,476.23 per ounce from US$2,337.47 per ounce in the previous
quarter. The price of silver increased by 2.14 per cent to US$29.48 per ounce,
relative to US$28.86 per ounce in the preceding quarter. The price increases
were driven by expectations of further monetary policy easing and lower
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The spot price of platinum and palladium, however, fell by 1.86 and 0.48 per
cent to US$959.91 per ounce and US$966.23 per ounce, respectively, in
Q32024, from US$978.09 per ounce and US$970.95 per ounce in the previous
quarter. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the price of
platinum dropped due to a decline in refined production in South Africa,
Zimbabwe, Russia, and North America. The decline in the price of palladium
was attributed to low demand, resulting from a gradual shift by car
manufacturers from internal combustion engines (ICE) to battery electric
vehicles (BEV).

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket
Other Mineral
Commodities

15 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

Prices of most global agricultural commodities monitored
declined, due to favourable supply conditions amidst pessimistic
demand. The all-commodity price index declined by 3.06 per cent to
144.34 points in the third quarter of 2024, from the 148.89 points in the
preceding quarter. The decrease was driven, largely, by a 19.80 and
12.86 per cent decline in the prices of cocoa and soya beans,
respectively. In addition, there was a notable decline in the prices of
groundnuts (7.51%), cotton (6.23%), and wheat (5.62%). The decline
in the prices was due, largely, to improved supply amidst lower
demand. The prices of coffee, palm oil and rubber, however, increased
by 15.78, 5.36, and 4.30 per cent, respectively, on account of supply
constraints, driven by adverse weather conditions.


Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices

16 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


Table 3: Dollar-based Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's
Major Agricultural Export Commodities (Jan 2010=100)
COMMODITY
Q32023
Q22024
Q32024
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet


1.5
MONETARY POLICY STANCE
Most central banks adopted an accommodative policy stance in
Q32024, signalling the onset of policy normalisation. The US Fed
cut rates by 50.00 basis points to between 4.75 and 5.00 per cent due
to a sustained moderation in inflation towards the target. Similarly, the
Bank of England reduced rate by 25.00 basis points to 5.00 per cent,
on account of sustained reduction of inflation pressure. The same vein,
the Bank of Canada and the ECB, lowered rates by 70.00 and 60.00
basis points to 4.25 and 3.65 per cent, respectively. The Bank of Japan,
however, raised its rate to 0.25 per cent in Q32024 from 0.10 per cent
in the preceding quarter, due to price pressures.
Most emerging economies also adopted accommodative policy stance
due to sustained moderation in inflation pressure. The Bank of Mexico
and the Reserve Bank of South Africa lowered rates by 50.00 and 25.00
basis points to 10.50 and 8.00 per cent in Q32024. China cut rate to

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ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

3.35 per cent in Q32024 from 3.45 per cent in Q22024 to bolster the
fragile economic recovery. In India and Turkey, rates were retained at
6.50 and 50.00 per cent, respectively in Q32024. In contrast, Russia,
hiked policy rate by 300 basis points to 19.00 per cent in Q32024 from
16.00 per cent in the preceding quarter, on account of rising inflation.
The Bank of Brazil likewise raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to
10.75 per cent in Q32024 from 10.50 per cent in Q22024.
Table 4: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
US

Canada

Euro Area

United Kingdom

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics.


18 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
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ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

2.0 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2.1
Real Sector Developments

The economy grew by 3.46 per cent in Q32024, with output
reaching ₦20.115 trillion, up from 3.19 per cent (₦18.285 trillion) in
Q2 2024, driven mainly by the non-oil sector. Inflation moderated
during the quarter, reflecting the fall in the food component of the
CPI basket, and driven by the restrictive monetary policy stance.
Domestic crude oil production increased, following enhanced
security measures around oil pipeline infrastructure in the Niger
Delta region.
Despite persisting headwinds, the economy continued to expand in the
third quarter of 2024. The growth of 3.46 per cent recorded in Q32024,
represented the third consecutive expansion year-to-date surpassing
the 3.19 per cent and 2.54 per cent recorded in Q22024 and
corresponding quarter of 2023, respectively. Growth was on account of
continued efforts to improve the business environment, streamline
cumbersome business processes and deepen the quality of business
infrastructure. The 24-month window period opened for the banking
sector re-capitaliisation (according to their license category and
authorisation) supported the robust growth in the services sector,
particularly, the finance and insurance sub-sector.
The continued drive of the government to improve crude oil production
to a target of 2mbpd by year-end of 2024, helped the oil sector to
maintain a positive growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Thus, the
oil sector grew by 5.17 per cent (year-on-year) in Q32024, compared
with a growth of 10.15 per cent in the preceding quarter, and contributed
0.28 percentage point to the overall growth in the period under review.
The performance was slower compared to the preceding quarter, owing
to a drop in prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude in the international
Summary
Domestic
Output

19 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

market, to US$82.07/b from US$86.92/b in Q22024. However, with the
increase in crude oil production from 1.27mbpd in Q22024 to 1.33mbpd
in Q32024, the sector maintained a positive contribution to overall
growth.
The non-oil sector growth accelerated to 3.37 per cent in Q32024
compared with a growth rate of 2.80 per cent in the preceding quarter,
contributing 3.18 percentage points to total growth. The expansion of
the non-oil sector was driven by the performance of the financial &
insurance, information & communication, crop production, trade,
transportation & storage, and real estate sub-sectors.
Figure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-on-Year

Source: National Bureau of Statistic


2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
All the sectors, (agriculture, industry and services) grew in
Q32024. The Services sector expanded at the fastest pace by 5.19 per
cent in Q32024, compared with 3.79 per cent in Q22024 and 3.99 per
cent in Q32023, remaining the most dominant sector, and accounting
for 53.58 per cent of aggregate GDP.


Per
cent
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP

20 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Within the services sector, financial & insurance sub-sector grew by
30.83 per cent, compared with 28.79 and 28.21 per cent in the
preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, respectively. This
performance was spurred by gains from the recapitalisation exercise
that was announced by the CBN. Other factors such as profits from
interest gains (following continued hike in interest rates), consultancy
fees, and ATM & transfer fees contributed to the growth of the subsector. Also, given the financial sector's ongoing digital transformation
(including the significant growth of fintech companies, mobile banking,
and digital payment systems), the information and communications
subsector grew by 5.92 per cent (contributing 0.95pp to GDP growth).
The performance of the ICT sub-sector was further boosted by the
ongoing demand for digital services like e-commerce and data/internet
services, which helped to grow economic activity in the other subsectors like trade and real estate 0.65 and 0.68 per cent, respectively.

The transport and storage sub-sector grew by 12.15 per cent,
compared with contractions of 13.53 and 35.85 per cent in the
preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023, respectively. The
growth was driven by the increase in road transport owing to improved

Per cent
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

21 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

security conditions and substitution from air transport (due to higher air
fares). Also, sustained investments in road infrastructure, as well as
investments in alternative source of energy (CNG) for road transport
contributed to the uptick in the sub-sector.

The agriculture sector grew modestly by 1.14 per cent, compared with
1.41 and 1.30 per cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of
2023, respectively. The growth was driven by the favourable weather
conditions and increased harvests of some staples. Crop production
grew by 1.18 per cent, compared with1.65 per cent in Q22024, while
the forestry and livestock sub-sectors grew by 2.23 and 1.03 per cent,
respectively, compared with a growth of 2.77 per cent and a
contraction of 1.71 per cent in Q22024. The fishing sub-sector,
however, contracted by 1.91 per cent, against a growth of 0.38 per
cent in the preceding quarter.
The industry sector maintained a positive trajectory, growing by 2.18
per cent in Q32024, compared with 3.53 and 0.46 per cent in Q22024
and Q32023, respectively. This slower growth reflected in the
Industrial Production Index (IPI), which grew by 2.04 per cent (yearon-year) in Q32024, compared with 4.13 per cent in the preceding
quarter. Sustained efforts by the government, however, to improved
crude oil production (to 1.33mbpd in Q32024 from 1.27 mbpd in
Q22024), contributed to the sector’s growth outcome in the period
under review. The increased production was on account of improved
security in the oil producing region. Modest performances were
recorded in the mining & quarrying sub-sectors with a growth of 3.27
per cent compared with 7.79 per cent and a contraction of 1.96 per
cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023,
respectively.
The industry sector, less oil, grew by 0.87 per cent compared with 0.85
and 1.04 per cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters of

22 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

2023, respectively. Growth reflected the sustained gains in water
supply (9.78%), sewerage waste management (3.23%); milder
expansions in electricity, construction (2.91%), and manufacturing
(0.92%) activities, with growth rates, respectively. However, marked
contraction was observed in the mining and quarrying subsector which
shrunk by 61.36 per cent compared with 45.89 and 29.01 per cent
contractions in the preceding and corresponding quarters of 2023,
respectively. This reflected the continued poor performance of
quarrying & other minerals and coal mining despite modest
improvements in metal ores-related activities.

Figure 12: Top Contributors to GDP Growth Q32024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Note: Growth rates are in parenthesis


2.1.2 Inflation
Inflation moderated in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a fall in
the food component of the CPI basket, and the impact of the
Bank’s restrictive policy stance. The headline inflation (y-o-y)
declined to 32.70 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, from 34.19 per
cent in the previous quarter. This, however, was higher than the 26.72
per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2023.

(2.29) Education
(0.68) Real Estate
(1.36) Professional,...
(2.53) Public Administration
(0.92) Manufacturing
(2.91) Construction
(0.65) Trade
(12.15) Transportation and...
(3.27) Mining and Quarrying
(1.18) Crop Production
(5.92) Information and...
(30.83) Financial and...
Headline
Inflation


23 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


Figure 13: Year-on-Year Headline, Food and Core Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Inflation remained broadly distributed across the components of the CPI
basket during the review quarter, as statistical evidence showed a slight
decrease in its pervasiveness. Specifically, 70.14 per cent of items in
the CPI basket exceeded the historical average of 14.60 per cent
(2010-2024) compared with 70.15 per cent in the preceding quarter1

1 The historical average was adjusted in August 2024 to 14.60 per cent (2010-2024), from 14.18 per cent (2010-2023) in the
preceding months to reflect recent reality, given the base period.


Per cent)
Headline
Core
Food
Inflation
Pervasiveness

24 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 14: Inflation Pervasiveness2
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Inflation momentum slowed in Q32024, reflecting the decline in
headline and food inflation. Momentum slowed by 1.50 percentage
points in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.99
percentage point in the preceding quarter.
Figure 15: Inflation Momentum3


2 Pervasiveness is measured by the number of headline CPI items that are within specific inflation range. It reflects the extent to
which rising prices are affecting the cost of living. Historically, inflation in Nigeria has been high, with average inflation of 13.10 per
cent from 1996–2023. Inflation is said to be more pervasive if there is a higher number of items registering inflation above the
historical average. The CPI items are therfore categorised into four groups namely; percentage of items registering inflation of less
than 4.99 per cent, between 5 per cent and 9.99 per cent, between 10 per cent and 13.10 per cent, and also inflation above 13.10
per cent.
3 Inflation Momenta is measured by taking the CPI for December end period of every year as the base period to calculate the yearto-date inflation. The annualized or inflation momentum is then gotten by dividing the year-to-date inflation of the current period by
the figure that stands for each of the 12 months (e.g: 1=January, 3=March, 9=September, or 11=November etc).

Per cent
Monthly
Annual
< 5.99%
6-10.99%
11-14.60%
> 14.60%


Q12024
Q22024
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Inflation Momentum (%)
Inflation momentum
Inflation
Momentum

25 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data


Core inflation (excluding farm produce and energy) was nearly steady
at 27.43 per cent in Q32024, compared with 27.40 per cent in Q22024.
Despite the relative stability, higher manufacturing input costs and
foreign exchange constraints continued to exert upward pressure on
core inflation. Further analysis of the core inflation drivers revealed that
fish & seafood (3.72 pp), actual & input rentals for housing (3.55 pp),
meat (3.30 pp), oil & fats (2.71 pp), and clothing & footwear (2.27 pp),
accounted for the slight uptick.
Figure 16: Component Drivers of Core Inflation
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

Although underlying inflation remained elevated across all measures,
the trend in trimmed mean and median measures rose at a slower pace
compared with the core inflation measure in the review quarter.4 The

4 Core inflation: measure of underlying inflation defined as headline less farm produce less energy prices.
Trimmed Mean: measure of underlying inflation derived using the average rate of inflation after trimming
away a certain percentage of the distribution of price changes outliers at both ends of that distribution.

Meat
Fish & Sea Food
Milk,Cheese & Eggs
Oil & Fats
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
BREAD UNSLICED 500g
CABIN BISCUIT: LOCAL MANUFACTURE 800g PACK
EKO(AGIDI/KAFA)
GARI WHITE,SOLD LOOSE
GARI YELLOW,SOLD LOOSE
MAIZE PASTE-WHITE(OGI/AKAMU)
PLANTAIN FLOUR
YAM FLOUR,SOLD LOOSE
Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Alcoholic Bev. Tobacco & Kola
Clothing & footwear
Actual and imputed rentals for housing
Furnishings, Household Equip &HH Maint.
Health
Vehicle Spare Parts
Passenger transport by road
Education
Restaurant & Hotels
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
OTHERS
Core Inflation
Core
measures of
underlying
Inflation
Trimmed
Mean and
Median
measures

26 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

core measure of underlying inflation was 7.46 percentage points higher
than the trimmed mean measure and 7.51 percentage points above the
trimmed median. This indicates that more items were volatile and were
excluded from the trimmed measures of underlying inflation. Thus,
fourteen items (20% of the CPI basket) were excluded from the core
component, seven apiece from the lower and upper bands. For the
lower band the contributions were telephone & telefax services (1.26
pp), telephone & telefax equipment (2.20 pp), passenger transport by
sea & inland waterway (4.53 pp), motorcycles (4.94 pp), musical
instrument (5.10 pp), motor cars (5.56 pp), and water supply (5.94 pp).
The upper band contributors included, actual & imputed rentals for
housing (36.68 pp), oils & fats (37.22 pp), coffee, tea & cocoa (37.27
pp), tobacco gas (37.90 pp), potatoes, yam & other tubers (41.15 pp),
and bread & cereals (41.92 pp) were excluded.
Figure 17: Measures of Underlying Inflation
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data


Food inflation declined to 37.77 per cent (y-o-y) in Q32024, from 40.87
per cent in the previous quarter, driven by increased supply of farm
produce and processed food items. The development was attributed to

Trimmed Median: measure of underlying inflation derived by obtaining median values from inflation of
CPI components.

Core inflation
Trimmed Median
20% Trimmed Mean
Food
Inflation

27 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

the growing impact of government policies aimed at addressing food
shortages, including expanded credit for domestic agricultural
production and the easing of restrictions on some food imports.


Figure 18: Contribution of Processed Food and Farm Produce to
food Inflation
Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

There was a marginal decline in the processed food component of food
inflation. This stemmed from the large reduction in the contribution of
gari to food inflation, reflecting the early harvest of cassava. However,
despite improved harvest, the farm produce component kept food
inflation elevated, as the contribution of rice, maize and sorghum rose
in the quarter under review.


per cent
Processed food
Farm produce
Food Inflation

28 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 20: Component Drivers of Food Inflation

Source: Staff compilation based on National Bureau of Statistics data

The key contributors to food inflation in Q32024 were meat, fish & egg
(6.40 pp), rice (5.73 pp), yam, potatoes & other tubers (4.98 pp), fruits
& vegetables (3.05 pp), and garri (2.99 pp).


2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments
In a significant move aimed at bolstering Nigeria's infrastructure, the
Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved a contract worth N158.00
billion for the construction of service lanes for the Lekki Deep Sea Port
to Dangote Refinery. The project will extend through Epe to the
Shagamu-Benin expressway, which is a critical artery for the nation's
transportation network.
In a continuous effort to reposition the Nigeria aviation sector, the
Aviation Working Group (AWG) increased Nigeria’s Cape Town
Convention (CTC) compliance index from 49.0 per cent to 70.5 per
cent, indicating safety for aircraft leasing in Nigeria. The development
will increase opportunities for aviation operators to acquire planes and
get insurance, as well as reduce the cost of business

Sorghum (Guinea Corn) White or Brown,Sold Loose
Rice (Local & Imported)
Millet (Jero or Maiwa) Sold Loose
Maize Grain White Sold Loose
Yam, Potatoes & other tubers
Fruits & Vegatables
Flours
Garri
Processed Corn
Bread, Biscuit & Sausage
Sugar,Jam,Honey,etc
Oil & Fats
Meat, Fish & Egg
Food Inflation

Transportation
Aviation

29 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


To sustain the drive towards providing better education infrastructure
and upscale the education system in the country, the Federal
Government earmarked ₦47.50 billion for the first phase upgrade of 50
selected senior secondary schools across the country. Similarly, the
Federal Government approved the upgrade and inauguration of the
College of Education, Pankshin to a University of Education, with a
take-off grant of ₦10.00 billion.

2.1.4 Energy Sector and Electricity
2.1.4.1 Domestic Crude Oil Market Developments

Domestic crude oil production increased in Q32024, following
improved security around oil pipeline infrastructure in the Niger
Delta region. Nigeria's average crude oil production rose by 4.72 per
cent to 1.33 mbpd in Q32024, from 1.27 mbpd in the preceding quarter.
The growth, despite falling short of its OPEC quota, indicated the
resilience of the country’s oil sector in the face of challenges.


Education
Crude Oil
Production and
Export

30 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 20: Nigeria’s Crude oil production and OPEC quota (mbpd)

Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission

The electricity sector recorded improved performance recorded in
Q32024, driven by increased water availability for hydro
substations, enhanced gas supply to thermal stations, and
improved
transmission
and
distribution
infrastructure.
Consequently, the index of electricity production increased slightly on a
y-o-y basis by 0.85 per cent compared with a 6.79 per cent increase in
the previous quarter. On a q-o-q basis, however, the index fell by 51.71
per cent in Q32024.


Table 5: Index of Electricity Production
Period
IEP
Y-on-Y Change
Q-on-Q Change
Q12023
139.40
7.40
-43.24
Q22023
389.00
11.02
179.05
Q32023
198.90
5.24
-48.87
Q42023
261.50
6.47
31.47
Q12024
141.10
1.22
-46.04
Q22024
415.40
6.79
194.40
Q32024
200.60
0.85
-51.71
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production


Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota
Index of Electricity
production

31 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

The average estimated electricity generation in Q32024 at 4,110.47
MW/h was 3.79 per cent, higher than the 3,960.22 MW/h recorded in
Q22024.The average estimated electricity consumption at 4,000.24
MW/h increased by 2.10 per cent in Q32024 compared with 3,918.15
MW/h in the preceding quarter.


Electricity
Generation /
Consumption

32 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


Box Information 1☹)
The prices of most of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities increased in
Q32024 compared with the preceding quarter. The price increases ranged from 6.16
per cent for gari (yellow) to 36.92 per cent for beans (white). This development was
driven, primarily, by the persistent increases in the costs of production and
transportation, which was further exacerbated by higher energy prices.

The prices of sweet potato, Irish potato, tomato, and onion bulb, however decreased
during the review period by 10.39, 8.83, 7.88, and 3.54 per cent, respectively, largely
on account of harvest period.

Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Q32024


Q32023/a
Q22024/a
Q32024/b
%
Change
%
Change

UNIT

(1) &
(3)
(2) &
(3)
Agric eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white black eye, sold loose
"

Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality, sold
loose
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Wheat flour: prepackaged
(Golden Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Sources: (a) National Bureau of Statistics (b) Staff Estimates


33 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


2.2
FISCAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
Provisional data showed increased fiscal operations in Q32024,
following higher receipts from non-oil sources. Federally
collected revenue rose by 7.48 per cent, relative to Q22024, but
was short of the benchmark by 23.71 per cent. The FGN retained
revenue was 5.22 and 53.41 per cent below the levels in Q22024
and the monthly target, respectively. Aggregate expenditure of the
FGN declined by 16.26 and 22.38 per cent below the levels in
Q22024 and the quarterly target, respectively. Fiscal deficit
contracted by 22.51 per cent, compared with the levels in Q22024,
43.88 per cent, above the quarterly target. At ₦121.67 trillion
(51.22% of GDP), public debt exceeded the 40.00 per cent
benchmark as at end-March 2024. It, nonetheless, remained within
the 70.00 per cent of GDP threshold for Market Access Countries.
2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Gross federation account earnings improved, occasioned by
higher receipts from non-oil revenue. At N6.86 trillion, provisional
gross federation account receipt was 7.48 per cent above the level in
the preceding quarter, but 23.71 per cent short of the benchmark. The
increase was due, largely, to higher receipts from corporate tax and
value added tax (VAT). The composition of gross federation revenue
showed that non-oil revenue remained dominant, accounting for 81.00
per cent, while oil revenue constituted the balance.
Non-oil revenue, at N5.56 trillion, was 19.48 and 50.36 per cent above
the levels in the preceding quarter and target, respectively. The
increase relative to preceding quarter was driven, largely, by higher

Summary
Federation
Revenue

34 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

collections from corporate tax and value added tax (VAT).5 The
increase relative to quarterly target reflects improved revenue collection
relative to budget expectations.
Oil revenue, however, fell by 24.72 per cent to N1.30 trillion, relative to
the level in Q22024 on account of lower receipts from petroleum profit
tax (PPT) and royalties. It was also, 75.39 per cent short of the quarterly
target due to shut-ins, arising from ageing oil pipelines and installations.

Figure 21: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance


5 Corporate tax is composed of company income tax, withholding tax and capital gain tax.
Q22023
Q32023
Q42024
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
N Billion
Non-oil
Oil
Federally-collected Revenue

35 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Table 6: Federally Collected Revenue and Distribution to the
Three-Tiers of Government (₦ Billion)

Q32023
Q22024 /1
Q32024/1
*Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers***

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL
38.38
47.92
49.53
43.56]
Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates.
Note:
*Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act.
** Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information
Technology Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue,
and other non-regular earnings.
*** Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls; while transfers entail
provisions for FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue.
/1 Provisional.

From the federally collected revenue of N6.87 trillion, a net balance of
N3.92 trillion was distributed to the three tiers of government after

36 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

accounting for additional revenue and statutory deductions and
transfers. The federal, state, and local governments received N1.27
trillion, N1.36 trillion and N0.99 trillion, respectively, while the balance
of N0.30 trillion was allocated to the 13% Derivation Fund for oilproducing states. Net disbursement was 12.71 per cent above the level
in Q22024, but was 43.47 per cent short of the quarterly target.

2.2.2 Fiscal Operations of the Federal Government
FGN retained revenue declined in the review period due, largely,
to lower receipts from share of federation account and FGN
independent revenue. At N2.28 trillion, provisional FGN retained
revenue was 5.22 and 53.41 per cent below the levels in Q22024 and
the benchmark, respectively.
Table 7: FGN Retained Revenue (₦ Billion)

Q32023
Q22024 /1
Q32024 /1
*Budget
FGN Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Oil Revenue

Excess non-oil/EMTL

Exchange Gain

Others**

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation
Note:
/1 Provisional
* Budget is based on the 2024 Appropriation Act.
** Others include revenue from Special Accounts and Special Levies.


The provisional aggregate expenditure of the FGN declined,
following lower interest payments and overhead cost. At N5.58
trillion, provisional aggregate expenditure in Q32024 was 16.26 per
cent below the level in the preceding quarter and 22.38 per cent short
of the quarterly target of N7.19 trillion.

Federal
Government
Retained Revenue
Federal
Government
Expenditure

37 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

The lower expenditure followed the reduction in interest payments and
overhead costs, which fell by 8.92 and 45.51 per cent, respectively. The
development was due, largely, to fewer maturing loan payment
obligations in the review period and deliberate fiscal policies aimed at
efficiency and lower operational expenses. Further analysis of total
expenditure showed that recurrent accounted for 66.84 per cent, while
capital and transfer payments constituted 25.36 and 7.80 per cent,
respectively.

Figure 22: Federal Government Expenditure (₦ Billion)

Source: CBN Staff Estimates and Office of the Accountant General of the Federation

The overall fiscal balance of the FGN narrowed in Q32024.
Provisional data showed that while primary deficit widened by 155.28
per cent, from the level in the preceding quarter, overall deficit,
contracted by 22.51 per cent to N3.30 trillion. The contraction indicated
a higher decline in expenditure relative to revenue, reflecting
government efforts to improve fiscal efficiency and lower operational
expenses.


Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Budget
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Transfers
Total Expenditure
Overall Fiscal
Balance

38 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Table 8: Fiscal Balance (₦ Billion)

Public debt stock was above the 40.00 per cent national threshold
at end-March 2024, but remained within the 70.00 per cent
threshold for Market Access Countries. Total public debt
outstanding stood at N121.67 trillion (51.22% of GDP), at end-March
2024, and was 24.99 per cent higher than the level at end-December
2023. The rise was due, largely, to revaluation effect arising from
exchange rate depreciation, securitisation of ways & means advances
and new borrowings to finance the deficit outlined in the 2024
Appropriation Act. A breakdown of the consolidated public debt shows
that domestic debt accounted for 53.95 per cent, while external debt
constituted 46.05 per cent. Of the consolidated public debt stock, FGN
owed N117.60 trillion (96.66%), while state governments owed the
balance6.

A disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was
N61.58 trillion, constituting 52.36 per cent, while external debt
constituted N56.02 trillion (47.64%). Further analysis revealed that
FGN Bonds maintained its dominance, with 78.63 per cent of the total
domestic debt stock, followed by treasury bills (16.95%), promissory

6 The FGN component of public debt includes external debt of state governments, which are contingent
liabilities of the federal government.

Q32023
Q22024 /1
Q32024 /1
Budget
Retained revenue

Aggregate expenditure

Recurrent

Non-debt

Debt Service

Capital

Transfers

Primary balance

Overall balance

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and CBN Staff Estimates
Note: /1 provisional
Federal
Government Debt

39 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

notes (2.55%), and FGN Sukuk (1.77%), while others constituted the
balance.7 Of the total external debt stock, multilateral accounted for
49.45 per cent, commercial (36.54%) and bilateral loans (14.01%).

Debt service at end-March 2024 fell by 12.98 per cent to N2.48 trillion,
from N2.85 trillion at end-December 2023, owing to fewer maturing
bilateral and commercial obligations, relative to the preceding quarter.
A breakdown showed that domestic debt service was N0.99 trillion
(39.90%), while external debt service constituted N1.49 trillion
(60.10%).

Figure 23: FGN External and Domestic Debt Composition
(₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office


7 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).

40000
80000
120000
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
External Debt
Domestic Debt
Total

40 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 24: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 25 Composition of External Debt Stock by Instrument
Source: Debt Management Office


FGN Bonds
78.63%
Treasury Bills
16.95%
Promissory
Note ...
FGN Sukuk
1.77%
Others
0.10%
FGN Bonds
Treasury Bills
Promissory Note
FGN Sukuk
Others
49.45%
36.54%
14.01%
Multilateral
Commercial
Bilateral

41 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

2.3 Monetary and Financial Developments
The banking system remained safe, sound, and stable in the
review quarter. Monetary aggregates trended upwards due to
increased credit to key sectors of the economy and the effect of
exchange rate depreciation. Key short-term interest rates were
stable and reflected the liquidity dynamics in the banking system.
Activities in the Nigerian equities market slowed, in response to
rising interest rate, as investors’ preference shift from equities to
fixed income securities.


2.3.1 Monetary Developments
Reserve money increased in Q32024, reflecting the rise in
currency-in-circulation (CIC) and liabilities to other depository
corporations (LODCs). Relative to the level at end-December 2023,
reserve money grew by 13.72 per cent to ₦28.14 trillion compared with
the level in Q22024, but slightly below the 2024 provisional benchmark
of ₦28.27 trillion by 0.46 per cent. The growth in reserve money was
underlain by the 18.00 and 12.98 per cent increase in CIC and LODCs
to ₦4.31 trillion and ₦23.83 trillion, respectively.
Figure 26: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Ratio
₦ Trillion
Currency-in-Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)
Reserve Money
Summary

42 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 27: Growth in Reserve Money (Over Preceding December)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Notes and coins remained the largest component of CIC, rising to
₦4.29 trillion at end-September 2024, from ₦4.03 trillion at end-June
2024. On the other hand, the eNaira decreased by 0.16 per cent to
₦18.35 billion, from ₦18.38 billion at end-June 2024.
Figure 28: Composition of Currency-in-Circulation (₦ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Broad money supply (M3) grew by 38.33 per cent to ₦108.95 trillion in
Q32024 despite a decline in money multiplier to 3.87, from 4.05 in
2024Q2. From the liability side, the expansion in broad money was due
to the growth in other deposits (51.06%), transferable deposits

Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Per cent
Currency-in-Circulation
Reserve Money
Liabilities to ODCs
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
eNaira

Notes and Coins

Currency in
Circulation


₦' Billion
eNaira
Notes and Coins
Currency in Circulation
Broad Money
Supply

43 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

(19.81%), and currency outside depository corporations (16.97%).
Other deposits contributed the most to the growth in M3 with 31.5
percentage points (pp), followed by transferable deposits with 6.62 pp
and currency outside depository corporations with 0.74 pp. Conversely,
securities other than shares declined by 97.77 per cent, slowing the
growth in M3 by 0.52 percentage points.


44 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


Table 9: Money and Credit Growth Over Preceding December
Monetary Aggregates


Q32023


Q42023


Q22024


Q32024
Annualised
growth (%)
Contribution to
M3 Growth
(percentage
point)


(Q32024)
(Q32024)
Net Foreign Assets

Claims on Nonresidents

Liabilities to Nonresidents

Net Domestic
Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on
Central Government

Claims on Central
Government

Liabilities to Central
Government

Claims on Other
Sectors

Claims on Other
Financial Corporations

Claims on State and
Local Government

Claims on Public
Nonfinancial
Corporations

Claims on Private
Sector

Total Monetary
Assets (M3)

Currency Outside
Depository
Corporations

Transferable
Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than
Shares

Total Monetary
Liabilities(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

On the asset side, growth in M3 was driven by increases in both NFA
and NDA. At end-September 2024, NFA rose by 57.55 per cent to
₦24.82 trillion and contributed 11.51 pp to the overall growth in M3

45 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

relative to the 46.61 per cent growth and a contribution of 9.32 pp at
end-June 2024.
Similarly, NDA rose by 33.53 per cent to ₦84.14 trillion, with 26.83 pp
contribution to the growth in M3. The increase in NDA was due to the
71.31 and 20.02 per cent growths in net claims on central government
and claims on other sectors, respectively, contributing 22.21 pp and
16.06 pp to the growth in M3. Additionally, growth in M3 was driven by
increase in claims on public nonfinancial corporations (13.32%) and
claims on private sector (32.51%) with contributions of 0.55 pp and
17.12 pp to M3 growth.

2.3.2 Sectoral Credit Utilisation
Sectoral credit utilisation increased by 5.13 per cent to ₦58.57 trillion in
Q32024, compared with ₦55.71 trillion in the preceding quarter. The
services sector maintained dominance in receipt of credit to key sectors
of the economy, utilising 53.08 per cent, followed by industry and
agriculture which accounted for 42.98 and 3.94 per cent, respectively.
Table 10: Sectoral Credit Allocation
SECTORS
Allocation (₦ trillion)
Share in Total (%)
Growth
(%)
Q3’23
Q2’24
Q3’24
Q3’23
Q2’24
Q3’24
(3) & (2)

[a] Agriculture

[b] Industry

of which
Manufacturing

[c] Services

of which:

Finance,
Insurance &
Capital Market
Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL
39.11
55.71
58.57

5.13
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Sectoral Credit
Utilisation


46 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Consumer credit outstanding declined by 10.15 per cent to ₦4.25 trillion
in Q32024 compared with ₦4.73 trillion in the preceding quarter.
Consequently, personal, and retail loans declined to ₦3.15 trillion (9.22
%) and ₦1.10 trillion (12.70 %), from ₦3.47 trillion and ₦1.26 trillion,
respectively, in the preceding quarter. Personal loans remained
dominant, accounting for 74.14 per cent of total consumer credit, while
retail loans constituted the balance.
Figure 29: Consumer Credit Outstanding

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3 Financial Developments
2.3.3.1 Money Market Developments
Average banking system liquidity declined in Q32024, relative to
the level in the preceding quarter driven, mainly, by withdrawals
via monetary operations. Withdrawals from the banking system
through standing lending facility (SLF) repayment, cash reserve ratio
(CRR) debits, open market operations (OMO) sales, Nigerian Treasury
Bills (NTBs) sales, FX-OMO swap settlement, among others moderated
the level of liquidity in the banking system in the review quarter.
Consequently, average net industry balance declined by 40.63 per cent
to ₦0.16 trillion from ₦0.27 trillion in the preceding quarter.

Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
₦'Trillion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total
Consumer
Credit
Industry Liquidity
Condition

47 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Activities at the standing facility window increased in Q32024, relative
to the level in the preceding quarter, reflecting the liquidity level in
banking system. Total transactions at the standing lending
facility (SLF) window rose to ₦27.95 trillion in the review period, with
daily average of ₦0.43 trillion, from ₦26.44 trillion, with daily average of
₦0.51 trillion in the preceding quarter. Similarly, transactions at the
standing deposit facility (SDF) window grew to ₦15.07 trillion, with daily
average of ₦0.23 trillion, from ₦6.39 trillion, with daily average of 0.11
trillion in the preceding quarter.

Figure 30: Transactions at the Standing Facility Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Analysis of the open market operations revealed that the total amount
offered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦2.80 trillion, ₦2.96 trillion, and
₦2.34 trillion, respectively, comparative with ₦3.20 trillion, ₦5.67 trillion,
and ₦4.36 trillion in the preceding quarter. The stop rates increased
21.42(±2.94) per cent, from 20.62(±1.88) per cent in the preceding
quarter.

Q3'23
Q2'24
Q3'24

₦'Trillion
SLF
SDF
Open Market
Operations
Discount
Windows

48 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 31: Open-Market-Operation

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Subscriptions for both Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) and Federal
Government of Nigeria (FGN) Bonds declined in Q32024, relative to the
level in the preceding quarter. Total NTBs offered, subscribed, and
allotted across tenors amounted to ₦1.69 trillion, ₦4.19 trillion and
₦1.62 trillion respectively, compared with ₦1.47 trillion, ₦6.98 trillion,
and ₦2.85 trillion in Q22024. The lower amount offered and subscribed
were accompanied by higher stop rates on all the maturities
19.20(±2.90) per cent, relative 18.47(±2.23) in the preceding quarter.
Figure 32: Primary Market NTBs

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q3'23
Q2'24
Q3'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment

Q3'23
Q2'24
Q3'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Government
Securities

49 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


FGN Bonds of various tranches were offered for sale in Q32024. The
amount offered, subscribed, and allotted were ₦0.64 trillion, ₦1.15
trillion, and ₦0.86 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦1.35 trillion,
₦1.78 trillion, and ₦1.30 trillion in the preceding quarter. The marginal
rate at 20.49(±1.49) per cent was higher than 20.37(±1.13) per cent in
the preceding quarter, while the bid rate stood at 22.00(±8.00) per cent
relative to 19.00(±5.00) per cent in the preceding quarter. The lower
demand for longer-tenured government securities could be attributed to
inflation expectation.


Figure 33: Primary Auctions of FGN Bond (N Billion)


Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Key short-term interest rates were relatively stable and reflected the
liquidity dynamics in the banking system. Average interbank call rate
rose marginally by 0.17 percentage point (pp) to 29.55 per cent, from
29.38 per cent in Q22024. Conversely, average open buy back (OBB)
rate fell slightly by 0.02 pp to 28.76 per cent, from 28.78 per cent in the
preceding quarter. The Nigerian interbank offered rate (NIBOR) call and
the NIBOR-30 rates moved in opposite direction as the former declined
by 2.72 pp to 26.41 per cent, while the latter increased by 3.53 pp to
27.31 per cent, relative to the rates in Q22024.

Q3'23
Q2'24
Q3'24

₦'Trillion
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Interest Rate
Development

50 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 35: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The data revealed that average lending rates trended upward in
Q32024, as average prime and maximum lending rates rose by 0.91 pp
and 0.59 pp to 16.55 and 29.68 per cent respectively, relative to the
level the preceding quarter. Similarly, the weighted average term
deposit rate increased by 0.45 pp to 11.08 per cent in the preceding
quarter. The spread between the weighted average term deposit and
maximum lending rates narrowed to 18.60 pp, relative to 18.46pp in
Q22024.
Figure 35: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term deposit
rate.

Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Per cent (%)
Interbank Call
OBB
NIBOR Call
NIBOR-30day
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor

Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
Q4'21
Q1'22
Q2'22
Q3'22
Q4'22
Q1'23
Q2'23
Q3'23
Q4'23
Q1'24
Q2'24
Q3'24
Per cent (%)
PLR
MLR
WATD
Spread

51 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

2.3.3.2
Capital Market Developments
Activities in the Nigerian equities market decelerated in the third
quarter of 2024, signalling the response of the market to interest
rate hike at the September 2024 MPC meeting. The bearish
performance of the capital market mirrored asset switching
activities of investors from equities to fixed income securities to
maximise the attractive yields. The aggregate market capitalisation
declined by 1.3 per cent to N102.92 trillion in the review period,
compared with the N104.28 trillion recorded at end-June 2024. The
decline
was
possibly
driven
by
concerns
about
lingering
macroeconomic headwinds and the introduction of a windfall tax that is
expected to affect the full year performance of some stocks.
The equities, debt and the exchange traded funds (ETF) components
depreciated by 0.1, 2.9, and 19.8 per cent respectively, to close at
N56.64 trillion, N46.25 trillion, and N32.43 billion compared with the
N56.60 trillion, N47.65 trillion and N27.08 billion recorded in the
preceding quarter. Notably, the equities component sustained its
dominance constituting 55.04 per cent of the aggregate market
capitalisation, while debt and ETF components constituted the balance
of 44.96 per cent.
The All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 1.5 per cent to 98,558.79
index points, compared with the 100,057.49 index points recorded in
the preceding quarter. The development was largely in response to the
higher interest rate environment which tilted investors’ interest from the
equities market to fixed-income securities.


Market
Capitalisation
NGX All-
Share Index

52 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024


Figure 36: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

A disaggregation of the equities component of the total aggregate
capitalisation showed that the main board constituted 64.64 per cent of
the total, premium board accounted for 35.20 per cent. This was
followed by growth board at 0.11 per cent, Real Estate Investment Trust
& Close End Fund (0.05%), and AseM (0.01%).
Figure 37: Percentage share of equites market capitalisation
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Also, a disaggregation of the bonds component of the total aggregate
capitalisation revealed that federal government bonds constituted the

Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Index Points
N' Billion
Aggregate Market Cap (LHS)
All Share Index (RHS)

ASeM Total
Growth Board Total
Premium Board Total
Real Estate Invest. Trust & Close End Fund (REITCEF)

53 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

highest share of 96.74 per cent, while corporate bonds/debentures and
government bonds (state and local) accounted for the balance of 3.26
per cent of total.
Figure 38: Percentage Contribution of Total Bonds Market Value
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

The capital market indices ended on a mixed note at end period of
Q32024, as NGX-Premium, NGX-30, NGX-Consumer Goods, NGXLotus II, NGX-Industrial Goods, NGX-Growth, NGX-Sovereign Bond
and NGX-Pension Board depreciated, relative to the levels in the
preceding quarter while, NGX-Oil & Gas, NGX-AFR Div Yield, NGXMERI Growth, NGX-Banking, NGX-MERI Value, NGX-AFR Bank
Value, NGX-Insurance and others trended upwards. The rise in most of
the indices reflected the impressive performance of some highly
capitalised stocks amid the interest rate hike by the CBN.


2.50
96.74
0.76
Corporate bonds/Debentures
Government bonds- Federal
Government bonds- State and Local
Sectoral
Indices

54 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Figure 39: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Per cent for Sectoral
Indices
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Table 11: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indicies
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Change (%)
NGX-Oil & Gas
1,440.67
1,990.84
38.2
NGX-AFR Div Yield
10,652.71
13,770.03
29.3
NGX-MERI Growth
4,590.75
5,424.77
18.2
NGX-Banking
830.20
944.48
13.8
NGX-MERI Value
6,970.70
7,795.35
11.8
NGX-AFR Bank Value
1,890.00
2,093.92
10.8
NGX-Insurance
390.57
429.93
10.1
NGX-CG
2,228.44
2,403.18
7.8
NGX-Pension
3,762.21
4,012.95
6.7
NGX-ASeM
1,504.55
1,583.71
5.3
NGX-Main Board
4,692.94
4,832.03
3.0
NGX-Consumer Goods
1,581.55
1,564.09
-1.1
NGX-30
3,710.32
3,661.41
-1.3
NGX-Lotus II
6,287.43
6,108.53
-2.8
NGX-Pension Board
1,771.41
1,717.03
-3.1
NGX-Premium
9,864.01
9,050.21
-8.3
NGX-Growth
5,576.43
4,884.27
-12.4
NGX-Sovereign Bond
766.01
624.30
-18.5
NGX-Industrial Goods
4,696.04
3,806.57
-18.9
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

% Change (Q-on-Q)

55 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Trading activities on the Exchange increased in the review quarter as
the value of traded securities rose by 38.90 per cent to N0.73 trillion,
compared with the N0.53 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the volume of traded securities increased by 41.95 per cent
to 39.74 billion shares, compared with 27.99 billion shares recorded in
the previous quarter. Also, the total number of deals traded increased
by 25.72 per cent to 606,952.00 deals, relative to the level in the
preceding quarter.
Figure 41: Volume and Value of Traded Securities on the NGX

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

A total of 29 securities were listed on the Exchange, comprising 16 new
listings and 13 supplementary listings. The listings comprise FGN
savings bonds, ordinary shares, right issues, and futures contracts.
The total listings were higher than the 21 recorded at the preceding
quarter of 2024. In addition, the Exchange delisted three securities
comprising all trading shares of Niger Insurance Plc, Resort Savings &
Loans Plc, and RAK Unity Petroleum Plc.


Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Billion of Shares
N' Billion
Value of Traded Securities (LHS)
Volume of Traded Securities (RHS)
NGX Listings
Market
Transactions

56 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

Table 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian
Exchange Limited in Q32024
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
17.414% FGN Savings Bond
JUNE 2026
Issued 1,077,956 units amounting to
N1,077,956,000
New listing
18.414% FGN Savings Bond
JUNE 2027
Issued 3,232,773 units amounting to
N3,232,773,000
New listing
Access Holdings Plc
17,772,612,811 ordinary shares of 50
kobo each at N19.75 per share.
*RIGHT ISSUE*
New listing
Wema Bank Plc
Additional 8,572,103,573 Ordinary
Shares of 50 kobo each at N4.66 per
share. *RIGHT ISSUE*
Supplementary
listing
Tantalizers Plc
1,788,372,094 Ordinary Shares of 50
kobo each at N0.60 per share
Supplementary
listing
16.668% FGN Savings Bond
JULY

1,204,377
units
amounting
to
N1,204,377,000.00
New listing
17.668% FGN Savings Bond
JULY 2027
2,367,200
units
amounting
to
N2,367,200,000.00
New listing
17.202% FGN Savings Bond
SEPT. 2026
843,581
units
amounting
to
N843,581,000
New listing
18.202%
FGN
Savings
SEPT. 2027
2,748,666
units
amounting
to
N2,748,666,000
New listing
Notore Chemical Industries
Plc
Issued 2,418,099,300 Ordinary Shares
of 50 Kobo each at N43.75 per Share
Supplementary
listing
International Breweries Plc
Issued
161,172,395,100
ordinary
shares of 2 kobo each at N3.65 per
share. *RIGHT ISSUE*
Supplementary
listing
Nigerian Breweries Plc

Issue
of
22,607,491,232
ordinary
shares of 50 Kobo each at N26.50 per
share. *RIGHT ISSUE*
New listing
19.30% FGN Bonds APR.

Issued 18,885,502 units
Supplementary
listing
18.50% FGN Bonds FEB.

Issued 6,180,400 units
Supplementary
listing
19.89 per cent FGN Bonds
MAY 2033
Issued 200,649,400 units
Supplementary
listing
Zenith Bank Plc
5,232,748,964 ordinary shares of 50
kobo each at N36.00 per share.
*RIGHT ISSUE*
New listing
19.30% FGN Bonds APR

18,349,101 additional units of shares.
Supplementary
listing
18.50% FGN Bonds FEB

42,189,900 additional units of shares.
Supplementary
listing
19.89% FGN Bonds MAY

314,212,914 additional units of shares.
Supplementary
listing
Chapel Hill Denham, Nigeria
Infrastructure
Debt
Fund
(NIDF)
177,401 additional units of shares.
Supplementary
listing
Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria
Infrastructure
Debt
Fund
(NIDF)
901,761 additional units of shares.
Supplementary
listing
Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc
Additional
8,000,000,000
Ordinary
Shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.50 per
Share
Supplementary
listing
17.373% FGN Savings Bond
AUG 2026
Issued 1,356,761 units amounting to
N1,356,761,000
New listing

57 | P a g e Central Bank of Nigeria Economic Report
Q32024
ECONOMIC REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2024

18.373% FGN Savings Bond
AUGUST

Issued 3,752,261 units amounting to
N3,752,261,000
New listing
NGX30H5
Listed Futures Contracts at N3,896.50
New listing
NGXPENSIONH5
Listed Futures Contracts at N4,169.50
New listing
Norrenberger Islamic Fund
Issued 10,313,727 units amounting to
N1,031,372,700
New listing
Norrenberger Turbo (Fixed
Income) Fund
Issued 16,596,527 units amounting to
N1,659,652,700
New listing
Sterling Financial Holdings
Company Plc
7,197,604,531 ordinary shares of 50
Kobo each at N4.00 per share. *RIGHT
ISSUE*
New listing
Niger Insurance Plc
All trading shares
Delisting
Resort Savings and Loans
Plc
All trading shares
Delisting
RAK Unity Petroleum Plc
All trading shares
Delisting
Source: Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
Notes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not available.


2.3.4 Financial Soundness Indicators
Despite economic headwinds during the review quarter, the
banking system remained safe, sound, and stable as reflected in
the performance of the financial soundness indicators.
Consequently, the banking system capital adequacy ratio (CAR)
improved by 1.49 percentage point to 14.01 per cent, relative to 12.52
per cent in the preceding quarter. The development reflected the
improvement of the banks’ total qualifying capital and decrease of risk
weighted assets. The ratio remained above the 10.0 per cent
benchmark for banks with national/regional authorisation, but below the
15.0 per cent threshold for banks with international authorisation.
The banks’ asset quality measured by the ratio of non-performing loans
(NPL ratio) weakened by 0.68 percentage point to 4.58 per cent,
relative to 3.90 per cent at the end-June 2024. The ratio, however,
remained below the prudential benchmark of 5.0 per cent.
The industry Liquidity Ratio (LR) grew by 2.47 percentage points to
46.06 per cent, relative to the 43.59 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The LR remained above the minimum regulatory benchmark of 30.0 per

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cent, depicting the liquidity sufficiency of the banks and their ability to
meet up with their obligations.


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2.4
EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

The external sector performance improved significantly in
Q32024, buoyed by higher trade surplus and increase in
remittance inflow. Consequently, a higher current account surplus
of US$6.06 billion was recorded in the review period. The financial
account recorded a higher net acquisition of financial assets,
driven largely by higher foreign currency and deposit holdings by
residents and accretion to external reserves. At US$39.29 billion,
the level of external reserves could cover 8.91 months of import
for goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only. The
average exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per cent
to ₦1,588.64/US$, from ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024.

2.4.1 Current and Capital Account
The current account recorded an improved surplus position,
reflecting a stronger trade surplus and increased remittances
inflow. The surplus in the current account increased significantly to
US$6.06 billion, equivalent to 13.04 per cent of GDP in Q3 2024, from
US$3.92 billion or 8.74 per cent of GDP recorded in the preceding
quarter. The significant increase was driven primarily by a higher
surplus in the goods account, attributed to increased export earnings
and a reduction in import bills.

Figure 41: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)


Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Summary

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Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Merchandise export earnings increased in Q32024, primarily on
account of higher crude oil export receipts, following the
improved domestic crude oil production. Aggregate export earnings
increased by 1.19 per cent to US$13.10 billion, from US$12.95 billion
in Q22024. A breakdown showed that oil receipts rose to US$11.23
billion, from US$11.18 billion in Q22024. This reflected the increases in
the average price of crude oil to US$85.69 per barrel from US$84.21
per barrel and domestic crude oil production to 1.33mbpd from
1.27mbpd. Crude oil price dynamics during the review period was
underlined by sustained supply cuts by OPEC+ members amidst
ongoing geopolitical tensions. The improved production was as a result
of enhanced security around domestic oil infrastructures. Non-oil export
receipts grew to US$1.87 billion from US$1.77 billion in the preceding
quarter, attributed to increases in re-exports, electricity export, and
other non-oil export. Crude oil and gas exports remained dominant,
constituting 85.71 per cent of the total export, while non-oil export
accounted for the balance.

Merchandise import bills fell in Q32024, reflecting the decline in
the import of non-oil products. Merchandise imports fell by 8.34 per
cent to US$8.83 billion, from US$9.64 billion in Q22024. Analysis by
composition indicated that oil imports decreased to US$2.89 billion,
from US$3.78 billion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, non-oil
imports increased slightly to US$5.94 billion, from US$5.85 billion in the
preceding quarter. The development was due to a decline in the
industrial sector import, particularly, for raw materials and machinery. A
breakdown of total import revealed that non-oil imports accounted for
67.27 per cent, while oil imports constituted the balance.
Further analysis indicated that the industrial sector, mainly raw
materials and machinery, accounted for the largest share of imports,
Export
Performance
Merchandise
Import

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with 52.95 per cent. This was followed by food products (18.13%), oil
sector (12.59%), manufactured products (9.52%), transport (3.74%),
agricultural products (1.61%), and minerals (1.46%).

Figure 42: Import by Classification

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The services account deficit narrowed, reflecting reduced
payments for other business and government services. The deficit
in the services account narrowed to US$3.16 billion, from US$3.46
billion in Q22024. A disaggregation showed that total payment for
services decreased by 3.81 per cent to US$4.39 billion, compared with
the levels in the preceding quarter. A breakdown of the components of
services indicated that payments for other business services fell to
US$0.78 billion from US$1.41 billion in Q22024, while payments for
government goods and services decreased to US$0.18 billion, from
US$0.13 billion in Q22024. In contrast, payments for transport, travel,
financial
services,
insurance
&
pension
services,
and
telecommunication services increased to US$1.49 billion (5.62%),
US$1.17 billion (7.17%), US$0.19 billion (44.76%), US$0.15 billion
(16.10%), and US$0.34 billion (258.67%), respectively.
Industrial sector,
52.95%
Food products, 18.13%
Manufactured
products, 9.52%
Transport, 3.74%
Agriculture, 1.61%
Oil sector, 12.59%
Minerals, 1.46%

Services

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Analysis of total payment for services showed that transport services
accounted for 34.00 per cent, followed by travel services (26.74%),
other business services (17.79%), and telecommunications services
(7.76%). Other contributors were financial services (4.40), government
goods & services (4.06%), and insurance & pension services (3.47%),
while “others” accounted for the balance.

Figure 43: Share of Service Out-Payments in Per cent

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from services increased by 11.19 per cent to US$1.23 billion
in Q32024 due, mainly, to higher inflows from insurance & pension
services and financial services. Receipts from transport services rose
by 2.67 per cent to US$0.58 billion. Insurance & pension services
receipt also increased significantly to US$0.07 billion, from US$0.02
billion in the preceding quarter. In addition, receipts from financial
services and government services increased by 37.48, and 5.49 per
cent, respectively. Conversely, receipts from travel services and other
business services declined by 31.44 and 14.02 per cent, respectively,
to US$0.06 billion, and US$0.02 billion, compared with the levels in the
preceding quarter.
Of the total services receipts, transport services constituted 47.06 per
cent, followed by financial services (26.37%), government goods &
Transport, 34
Travel, 26.74
Other
business
services,
17.79
Insurance and
pension, 3.47
Financial
services, 4.4
Telecommunica
tion, 7.76
Government
goods and
services,
4.06
Others, 1.78

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services (10.28%), insurance and pension services (5.59%), travels
(5.20%), and telecommunication services (3.89%). Other services
accounted for the balance.

Figure 44: Share of Services Receipts

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The deficit in the primary income account narrowed, reflecting
higher interest earnings from reserve assets and reinvested
earnings from residents. The deficit reduced to US$1.06 billion in
Q32024, from US$1.76 billion in Q22024, attributed to increased
interest earnings from reserve assets and reinvested earnings from
residents. A disaggregation indicated a lower deficit of US$1.13 billion
in the investment income sub-account, compared with US$1.83 billion
in Q22024. The surplus in the compensation of employees account
increased by 13.66 per cent to US$0.07 billion, from the level in the
preceding quarter.


Transport, 47.06%
Financial, 26.37%
Government , 10.28%
Insurance, 5.59%
Travels, 5.20%
Telecom, 3.89%Others, 1.61%
Primary Income

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Figure 45: Primary Income Balance
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The secondary income account posted an increased surplus
position, due to a higher inflow of remittances. The surplus in the
secondary income account rose by 2.91 per cent to US$6.01 billion in
Q32024, from the level in the preceding quarter. The improvement was
driven by higher private sector transfers, particularly workers'
remittances, which increased to US$5.40 billion from US$5.35 billion in
Q22024. In addition, general government transfers also grew by 23.21
per cent to US$0.69 billion from US$0.50 billion in the preceding
quarter.

Figure 46: Secondary Income Balance and Remittances Inflow
(US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
US$ Billion

Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Remittances
Government transfers
Secondary income balance
Secondary
Income

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2.4.2 Financial Account
The financial account recorded a higher net acquisition of
financial assets, driven largely by higher foreign currency and
deposit holdings by residents and accretion to external reserves.
The financial account recorded net acquisition of financial asset of
US$4.03 billion, compared with US$0.31 billion in Q22024.

The economy recorded a higher inflow of US$6.44 billion, relative to
US$1.48 billion in the preceding quarter. The development was due to
an increase in central bank liabilities and incurrence of loans by the
government. A disaggregation showed that ‘Other investment’ liabilities
recorded a net inflow US$4.06 billion, in contrast to a net reduction of
US$3.50 billion in Q22024, due to increased loan liabilities. Foreign
direct investment liabilities also increased to US$0.56 billion from
US$0.52 billion in Q22024. Conversely, portfolio investment decreased
to US$1.92 billion, from US$4.42 billion in Q22024, due to a decline in
debt securities.

Financial assets acquired by resident investors increased significantly
to US$10.47 billion in Q32024, compared with US$1.79 billion in the
preceding quarter. The development was as a result of the increase in
foreign currency and deposit holdings by residents to US$5.49 billion
from withdrawals of US$0.83 billion in Q22024 and the accretion to
reserve assets of US$4.21 billion, compared with US$2.47 billion in
Q22024. Direct investment assets increased to US$0.63 billion, relative
to US$0.15 billion in the preceding quarter. ‘Other investment’ asset
increased significantly to US$5.53 billion, against a disposal of US$1.15
billion in the preceding quarter. Conversely, portfolio investments
decreased marginally by 0.70 per cent to US$0.21 billion, compared
with the level in Q22024.

Net Incurrence
of Liability
Financial
Account
Developments
Net Acquisition
of Asset

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2.4.3 External Debt

Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-June 2024, stood at US$42.90
billion (23.90% of GDP). A breakdown of external debt stock showed
that the multilateral loans, including loans from the World Bank Group,
International Monetary Fund, and African Development Bank Group,
amounted to US$21.62 billion, accounting for 50.41 per cent of the total
external debt stock. Commercial loans (Euro Bonds) amounted to
US$15.12 billion (35.24%). Loans from bilateral sources was US$5.89
billion (13.72%), and syndicated loans (African Finance Corporation)
stood at US$0.27 billion (0.63%).
External debt service payments at end-June 2024 stood at US$1.12
billion. A breakdown showed that interest payments totalling US$0.40
billion, accounted for 35.71 per cent of the debt service payment.
Principal repayments was US$0.58 billion (51.79% of the total), while
other payments accounted for the balance. Analysis of interest
payments showed that commercial borrowings accounted for 74.72 per
cent of the total at US$0.30 billion, while interest payments to
multilateral institutions amounted to US$0.09 billion (23.45%). Interest
on bilateral loans accounted for the balance.

2.4.4 International Investment Position

The international investment position posted a lower net financial
liability. The stock of financial assets rose to US$107.49 billion in
Q32024, from US$114.13 billion in the preceding quarter driven,
primarily, by an increase other investment assets and reserve assets.
Other investment assets and reserve assets increased by 11.69 per
cent and 13.02 per cent to US$52.82 billion and US$39.29 billion,
respectively, from the levels in the preceding quarter. Similarly, direct
investment and portfolio investment assets grew to US$17.33 billion,
External Debt
International
Investment
Position

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and US$4.58 billion, respectively, from US$16.67 billion and US$4.37
billion in the preceding quarter.
The stock of financial liabilities rose to US$174.29 billion in Q32024,
from US$167.88 billion in Q22024, driven largely by a 4.64 per cent
increase in "other investment’’ liabilities to US$74.30 billion. Direct
investment liabilities also increased to US$68.66 billion, from US$66.09
billion recorded in Q22024. Similarly, portfolio investment liabilities
increased to US$31.25 billion from US$30.61 billion in Q22024.

2.4.5. International Reserves
The external reserves increased and remained above the
benchmark of 3 months of import cover during the review quarter.
The external reserves rose to US$39.29 billion, from US$34.76 billion
at end-September 2024. This level of reserves could cover 8.91 months
of import for goods and services or 13.34 months for goods only.
Figure 44: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods)-RHS
Months of Import (Goods and Services)-RHS
International
Reserves

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2.4.7 Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
Net foreign exchange inflow through the economy rose in the
review quarter driven, largely, by inflow through the Bank. Foreign
exchange inflow through the economy increased by 3.01 per cent to
US$22.89 billion, from US$22.22 billion in Q22024. Inflows through the
Bank rose by 39.63 per cent to US$11.86 billion from US$8.49 billion,
while autonomous sources fell by 19.66 per cent to US$11.03 billion
from US$13.72 billion in the preceding quarter.
Foreign exchange outflow through the economy rose by 15.18 per cent
to US$8.43 billion, relative to the level in Q22024. Outflows through the
Bank, rose by 27.91 per cent to US$7.31 billion, while those through
autonomous sources decreased by 30.06 per cent to US$1.12 billion.
Consequently, net foreign exchange inflow through the economy
decreased by 2.97 per cent to US$14.46 billion, from US$14.89 billion
in the preceding quarter. However, net inflow through autonomous
sources fell to US$9.90 billion, from US$12.12 billion in the preceding
quarter. A net inflow of US$4.55 billion was recorded through the Bank
compared with a net outflow of US$2.78 billion in the preceding quarter.

Figure 48: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy
(US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Q3 2023
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
14.90
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Foreign
Exchange Flows
through the
Economy

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2.4.7 Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate at the NFEM depreciated by 14.62 per
cent to ₦1,588.64/US$, from ₦1,385.96/US$ in Q22024, owing to
increased demand pressure.

Figure 49: Turnover in the NFEM

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024
PERCENT
US $ (M)
Average Turnover(LHS)
Rate of Turnover(RHS)
Average
Exchange Rate

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3.0
Global Outlook
Global output growth is expected to moderate, unevenly across
regions. Global economic growth is expected to moderate slightly to
3.20 per cent in 2024, down from 3.30 per cent in 2023, influenced by
rising consumer price pressures and potential fiscal tightening, even as
consumer demand remains strong across both advanced economies
(AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).
In AEs, growth is forecasted to remain steady at 1.70 per cent in 2024,
with a slight increase to 1.80 per cent in 2025, driven by sustained
demand in the US and higher consumption, as well as increased
investment in the Euro area. Growth in EMDEs is projected to moderate
to 4.30 per cent in both 2024 and 2025, on account of geopolitical
conflicts, moderation in demand and near-term impact of flooding.
Global headline inflation is projected to decline from 6.70 per cent in
2023 to 5.90 per cent in 2024 and further to 4.40 per cent in 2025. This
moderation in inflation pressures is due largely, to tight monetary
policies, a cooling labour market, and declining energy prices.

3.1
Domestic Outlook
For the remaining three months in year 2024, inflation is expected
to remain elevated. This expected rise is on account of the impact of
ongoing policy reforms, leading to an increase in both energy and
transport costs. However, the Bank’s sustained contractionary stance,
the relative stability at the foreign exchange market, as well as the
continuous harvest of some food staple could contribute in moderating
inflation.
Fiscal outlook remains bright in the near- to medium-term, as fiscal
reforms continue to exert favourable outcome, evident in contracting

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fiscal deficit and higher revenue collection. The volatility in global crude
oil prices coupled with low production vis-à-vis the OPEC quota are
however risks to the outlook.
The external sector is expected to remain strong in 2024, driven by
sustained improvements in trade surplus, higher domestic crude oil
production, and the full operation of the Dangote and Port Harcourt
refineries. Global economic conditions are also anticipated to be
supportive, with easing inflation in advanced economies which will
stimulate trade and investment.