This document is for CBN internal consumption


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
ECONOMIC REPORT


Second Quarter

i

ABOUT THE REPORT

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Economic Report present developments
in the Nigeria economy, for dissemination to the public. The Report, which
is published on a monthly and quarterly basis, provides insights on current
developments in the real, fiscal, financial, and external sectors of the
Nigerian economy, as well as global development that impact the domestic
economy. In addition, it reflects the policy initiatives of the CBN in pursuit
of its mandate.

The Report is targeted at a wide range of readers, including economists,
policymakers, financial analysts in the government and private sectors,
and the public. Free downloads of the Report, including current and past
issues can be obtained from the CBN website: www.cbn.gov.ng. All
inquiries concerning the Report should be directed to the Director,
Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, P.M.B. 187, Garki, Abuja,
Nigeria.


Content


iii

Tables
Table 9: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (%) . 31
Table 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian

Figures
Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Markets and Developing
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries ... 9
Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP, Q22022- Q22025 ... 15
Figure 12: Selected Top Subsectors with Contribution to GDP
Figure 13: Subsector with Negative Contribution to GDP Growth


iv

Figure 20: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q22025
Figure 21: Bottom-Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in
Figure 22: FGN External and Domestic Debt Compositions (₦
Figure 25: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier . 29
Figure 46: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy... 50
Box Information


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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
SUMMARY
The global economy performance was tepid in the second quarter of 2025,
on account of softer demand conditions. The global composite purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) declined to 51.23 from 51.80 index points in the
preceding quarter, as the pace of economic activity remained uneven for
advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies
(EMDEs). Inflation outcomes were also mixed across regions but indicated
widespread deceleration in price pressures.
The domestic economy growth quickened in Q22025, expanding by 4.23 per
cent, compared with 3.13 and 3.48 per cent in Q120225 and Q22024,
respectively. Headline inflation pressures continued to wane in the second
quarter, easing to 22.22 per cent in June 2025. On the fiscal front, federation
revenue increased by 15.02 per cent, relative to Q12025, signalling
improvement in fiscal conditions. Public debt stock (33.10% of GDP) settled
below the IMF-prescribed threshold of 70.00 per cent for Market-Access
Countries.
Monetary expansion was moderate during the review quarter, in line with
the tight monetary policy stance. The liquidity management operations of
the Central Bank of Nigeria resulted in a net withdrawal, with money market
rates remaining within the policy corridor. The Nigerian capital market
maintained its bullish run, as investor confidence and stable
macroeconomic environment spurred strong buy orders. Key indicators
revealed sustained soundness and resilience of the financial system.
The external sector improved in Q22025 despite subsisting geopolitical
tensions and global trade uncertainties. A lower deficit was recorded in the
overall balance of payments, buoyed by narrower deficits in the services and
primary income accounts, and reduction in other investment liabilities. The
country’s external reserves stood at US$37.81 billion and could finance 8.07
months of imports for goods and services or 12.25 months for goods only.
The average exchange rate at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market
(NFEM) was ₦1,581.06/US$, compared with ₦1,521.56/US$ in Q12025.


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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
1.0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic activity expanded in Q22025, albeit at a slower pace, and was
uneven between advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing
economies (EMDEs). Inflation eased across advanced economies (AEs) and in most
EMDEs, following a reduction in food and energy prices. Global equity markets
were largely bullish, while bond yields remained within a lower range, reflecting
the impact of monetary policy easing and lingering trade policy uncertainties.
1.1
Global Economic Activity
The expansion of economic activity moderated in Q22025, owing to the decline in
manufacturing activity and softer demand. The global composite purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell to 51.23 from 51.80 in Q12025 but remained within the
expansion region. The slower pace of expansion was attributed, largely, to lower
activities in the manufacturing and services sectors, as global demand weakened.
The manufacturing sector, contracted to 49.87 from 50.33 in the preceding
quarter, due in part to fragile demand and slower inventory replenishment.
Decline in new business and export orders slowed the services PMI to 51.53 from
52.13 in Q12025.
Global Economic
Activity

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 1: Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
Composite (Output)
52.90
51.80
51.23
Employment Level
51.30
50.37
50.47
New Business Orders
52.00
51.80
50.93
New Export Business Orders
49.60
49.80
48.20
Future Output
62.10
61.53
59.50
Input Prices
56.30
57.07
57.13
Output Prices
52.80
52.67
53.27
Manufacturing
50.90
50.33
49.87
Services (Business Activity)
53.10
52.13
51.53
New Business
52.40
52.10
51.30
New Export Business
50.60
50.20
48.43
Future Activity
63.10
61.53
59.63
Employment
51.50
50.87
50.80
Outstanding Business
50.00
49.27
50.13
Input Prices
56.70
57.77
57.87
Prices Charged
53.00
52.90
53.50
Source: JP Morgan

The pace of economic activity varied in advanced economies, reflecting distinct
recovery patterns in the manufacturing and services sectors. In Italy the PMI
expanded to 51.90 in Q22025 from 50.70, buoyed by improved domestic demand,
easing inflation pressure, and higher manufacturing exports. Similarly, Japan
sustained its recovery, with the PMI increasing to 50.97 from 50.67 and 49.70 in
the preceding and corresponding quarters. The expansion was supported by
continued uptick in new orders and a stable employment environment.
In the US, the PMI remained robust at 52.17, but lower than 52.60 in Q12025,
amid weaker domestic demand, higher cost pressures, and emerging policy
uncertainties. Similarly, the UK recorded a slower expansion at 50.57, compared
with 50.87 in Q12025, as domestic and external demand weakened and business
confidence faltered. PMI also slowed in Spain to 52.00 from 54.37 in the preceding
quarter, due to cooling demand in the services sector and lower new orders.
France recorded a PMI of 48.77, compared with 46.90 in the preceding quarter,
as the slack in new orders, job losses, and fragile business confidence lingered.


Economic Activity in
Advanced Economies

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
In contrast, the PMI in Germany, at 49.77, dropped to a contraction at 49.67, from
an expansion of 50.73 in Q12025, due to slackening services activity softening
demand. Canada recorded further contraction in PMI to 43.73 from 46.10 in the
preceding quarter, reflecting job losses, lower domestic orders, and high input
costs in the manufacturing sector.
Figure 1: PMIs in Selected Advanced Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.

Economic activity slowed in most EMDEs in Q22025. Purchasing managers’ indexes
(PMIs in Indonesia and Turkey weakened to 47.00 and 47.07 in Q22025,
respectively, from 52.63 and 47.87 in the preceding quarter. The contraction in
Indonesia reflected lower export demand and manufacturing output, and
uncertainty in fiscal policy associated with its election cycle. The development in
Turkey followed elevated inflation pressure and soft domestic demand. The PMI
also dropped in Brazil to 49.07 from 50.67 in the preceding quarter, owing to rising
financing costs, weak domestic orders, and inflation concerns. In Russia, the Index
contracted to 49.90 from 51.40, following reduced exports, geopolitical tensions,
cautious consumer spending, and tighter credit conditions.
Similarly, economic activity in Mexico further slowed, as indicated by a PMI of
45.93, compared with 47.73 in Q12025. The downturn was due to weaker demand
from the US, rising logistics costs, and reduced production in the automotive and
electronics industries. In China, the PMI declined to 50.67 from 51.47, due to
reduction in new orders and softer external demand. In contrast, India’s PMI
increased to 60.00 from 58.67, supported by robust growth in the services sector,
strong domestic demand, and sustained rise in new export orders. Similarly, South
Africa’s PMI rebounded to 50.30 from a contraction of 46.23 in Q12025. The


UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
50-point Threshold
Economic activity in
EMDEs

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
improvement was explained to easing supply constraints and modest recovery in
new business.

Figure 2: PMI in Selected Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Source: Trading Economics/Various countries’ websites.
Note: South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico PMIs data were based on manufacturing PMI.

1.2 Global Inflation
Global inflation trend was mixed in Q22025, influenced by volatile energy prices,
base effects, and policy shifts. In the UK and the US, inflation rose to 2.70 and 3.60
per cent, respectively, from 2.60 and 2.40 per cent in the preceding quarter. Price
pressures in the UK were associated with higher housing, energy and services
costs. In the US, they were attributed to rising shelter costs and consumer
spending. Inflation ticked up in France to 1.00 per cent, from 0.80 per cent in
Q12025, due to seasonal fluctuations in the cost of transportation and education
services.
Germany and Japan recorded disinflations to 2.00 and 3.30 per cent from 2.20 and
3.60 per cent, respectively, on account of benign food and energy prices. In
Canada, inflation declined to 1.90 per cent, from 2.30 per cent, underscoring
softer food and gasoline prices, and shelter cost. Disinflation was also recorded in
Italy to 1.70 per cent from 1.90 per cent, as food and energy prices moderated.
Price pressures was, however, unchanged at 2.3 per cent in Spain, reflecting the
decline in energy costs, counterbalanced by rising costs of leisure, hospitality, and
transportation services.


CHINA
INDIA
TURKEY
SOUTH
AFRICA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
50-point Threshold
Global Inflation

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 3: Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics
Price pressures were broadly mixed in EMDEs, owing to base effects, food price
dynamics, currency pressures, and policy adjustments. In India and Turkey,
inflation moderated to 2.10 and 35.05 per cent, respectively, from 3.34 and 38.10
per cent in Q12025. Lower food prices and positive sentiment around agricultural
output influenced price dynamics in India, while declining food prices, and tight
monetary policy eased price pressures in Turkey. Likewise, inflation decelerated in
Brazil and Russia to 5.35 and 9.40 per cent, respectively, from 5.48 and 10.30 per
cent, on account of lower gasoline prices in Brazil and dampened demand in
Russia.
However, inflation rose in Indonesia and South Africa to 1.87 and 3.00 per cent,
respectively, from 1.03 and 2.70 per cent in the preceding quarter. The increase
in Indonesia was due to expiration of discounted electricity tariff and end-ofseason adjustments, while higher services and goods prices, especially in fuel and
agricultural products, drove up prices in South Africa. Inflation in Mexico rose to
4.32 per cent from 3.80 per cent, on the back of stronger domestic demand. In
China, it remained tepid at 0.10 per cent due to weak demand, moderate food and
services prices and low wage pressures.


0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

UNITED
STATES
UNITED
KINGDOM
GERMANY FRANCE
JAPAN
CANADA
ITALY
SPAIN
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 4: Inflation in Selected EMDEs (per cent)

Source: Trading Economics

1.3
Global Financial Markets
1.3.1
Global Financial Conditions
Equities markets were bullish in many economies, and bond yields remained at the
lower rangebound, as monetary policy eased and trade policy uncertainties
persisted. Stocks across the AEs ended the quarter on a bullish note, following a
temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs. In the US, the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and
Dow Jones rebounded, due to tariff pause, strong corporate earnings, and
renewed investor sentiment. The UK FTSE 100 extended its positive run in the UK,
gaining 2.08 per cent, supported by interest rate cuts, fading recession fears, and
favourable performance in major stocks lifted market conditions. The Japanese
NIKKEI and TOPIX indices also appreciated by 13.67 and 7.30 per cent,
respectively, owing to the US-China trade negotiations and easing global recession
fears. Eurozone stocks also recorded strong gains, as the German DAX, Italy FTSE
MIB and EURO STOXX 50 appreciated. The bullish stance was led by industrials and
real estate sectors, amid consensus by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(NATO) to raise defence spending. The French CAC 40, however, depreciated by
1.60 per, as tensions in the Middle East weighed investor sentiment.
In the EMDEs most equities markets were bullish in Q22025, supported by a
weaker US dollar. The Mexican MEXBOL and Brazilian BOVESPA extended their
positive performance, with returns of 9.46 and 6.60 per cent, respectively. Gains
in the MEXBOL were associated with the pause of the US tariff policy, while
appreciation of the BOVESPA was attributed to increased foreign capital inflow, as
investors reassessed exposure to the US, following Moody’s downgrade of US


INDIA
INDONESIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
BRAZIL
CHINA
MEXICO
RUSSIA
TURKEY
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
sovereign debt from AAA to Aa1. Similarly, the South African JALSH appreciated by
8.79 per cent, supported by broad-based growth in corporate income. The Indian
BSE SENSEX gained 8.00 per cent in the review quarter, driven by positive domestic
economic data and robust performance of blue-chip companies. The Russian
MOEX and Chinese SZI, however, dipped by 5.51 and 0.37 per cent, respectively,
reflecting dampened investor sentiment in both economies.
Figure 5: Growth Rate of Key Global Stocks (per cent)

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & MarketWatch

Long-term bond yields fell in most AEs and EMDEs in the review period, due to
accommodative monetary policy stance. In the AEs, the 10-year bond yields in the
US and the UK declined to 4.23 and 4.49 per cent, respectively, from 4.25 and 4.67
per cent in the preceding quarter. The lower yields in the US were underpinned by
growing concerns around fiscal policy and the downgrade of US sovereign debt.
In the UK, accommodative monetary policy necessitated portfolio rebalancing, as
softer UK labour market data favoured rate cuts and suppressed yields.
Similarly, returns on sovereign bonds in the Euro area declined to 2.61 per cent,
from 2.73 per cent, buoyed by easing monetary conditions. Yields also fell to 3.51
in Italy and 1.43 per cent in Japan, from 3.86 and 1.49 per cent respectively, as
trade policy uncertainties and moderating domestic growth in both economies
weighed on investors’ sentiment. In Canada, however, yield rose to 3.27 per cent,
from 2.97 per cent, as Bank of Canada held its policy rate.
Among EMDEs, Turkey and Russia recorded lower yields of 29.15 and 14.81 per
cent, respectively, from 31.33 and 15.25 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
decline in Turkey reflected the effects of US tariffs and lingering geopolitical

US-S&P 500
US-Dow Jones
US-Nasdaq-100
UK-FTSE-100
Fance-CAC-40
Italy-FTSE MIB
Japan-Nikkei
Germany-DAX
Euro Area-Euro stoxx 50
Japan-Topix
Brazil-Bovespa
Mexico-MEXBOL
South Africa-JALSH
India-BSE Sansex
China-SZI
Russia-Moscow Exchange
Q12025
Q22025

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
tension, while easing monetary stance impacted yields in Russia. Returns on
sovereign yields in Indonesia and India declined to 6.63 and 6.32 per cent,
respectively, from 6.98 and 6.58 per cent in the preceding quarter, due also to
accommodative monetary policy and tariff uncertainties. In Mexico, yield on
sovereign bonds fell by 9.19 per cent, from 9.35 per cent, in response to the
Banxico’s rate-cutting cycle, as investors remained cautious. South Africa also
recorded lower yield of 9.95 per cent, from 10.62 per cent in the preceding
quarter, following policy rate cut, supported by a favourable inflation outlook.
Figure 6: 10-year Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries

Source: Reuters Refinitiv Eikon & Trading Economics

1.4
Global Commodity Markets
World crude oil supply slightly exceeded demand in Q22025. Global crude oil
supply, including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), rose by 1.08 per cent to 104.46 mbpd,
compared with 103.34 mbpd in the preceding quarter. The increase was driven by
higher production in both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries. Supply by OPEC+
countries rose by 0.89 per cent to 32.96 mbpd from 32.67 mbpd, attributed to
increased supplies from Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and United Arab
Emirates (UAE). Non-OPEC supply ticked up by 1.15 per cent to 71.50 mbpd, from
70.69 mbpd, due to higher supplies from the US, Mexico, Brazil and Angola.
Global crude oil demand, including natural gas liquids, increased by 0.99 per cent
to 103.19 mbpd, from 102.18 mbpd. The growth was driven by the 2.11 per cent
increase in non-OECD countries, which increased by to 58.12 mbpd, driven, mainly,
by uptick in economic activity in China and other Asian countries. In contrast,
demand in OECD countries declined by 0.40 per cent to 45.08 mbpd, compared
with 45.26 mbpd in the preceding quarter.


USA
Euro Area
UK
Japan
Canada
Italy
Mexico
India
Indonesia
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Advanced Economies
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
World Crude Supply
and Demand

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 7: Total Global Crude Supply and Demand

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil spot prices fell in Q22025, driven, mainly, by increased crude oil supply
and growing stockpiles. The average spot price of Bonny Light (34.9° API) fell by
10.11 per cent to US$69.68 per barrel (pb) in Q22025, from US$77.52 pb in the
preceding quarter. The prices of Brent, at US$68.92 pb, Forcados (US$70.90 pb),
WTI (US$65.18 pb) and OPEC Reference Basket (US$67.41 pb) also dropped.
Figure 8: Quarterly Crude Oil Prices (US$ pb)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
mbpd
World Supply
World Demand
Crude Oil
Prices

Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Bonny Light
Brent
Forcados
WTI
Opec Basket

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
The average spot prices of precious metals rose, driven by demand for gold. The
average spot prices of gold rose by 14.88 per cent to US$3,287.80 per ounce, silver
(5.67%) to US$33.71, platinum (11.13%) to US$1,073.77 and palladium (3.31%) to
US$989.51 per ounce, from the levels in the preceding quarter. The rise in gold
prices was attributed, primarily, to increased demand by central banks and weaker
US dollar amid US trade policy uncertainties. Increase in the prices of silver and
platinum was associated with improved industrial activity, while higher investor
demand drove up the price of palladium.
Figure 9: Price Changes in Selected Metals (per cent)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters)

The prices of most of the monitored global agricultural commodities trended
downward in Q22025, reflecting improved supply conditions and moderating
demand. The all-commodity price index of monitored agricultural commodities fell
by 9.54 per cent to 143.54, from 158.69 in the preceding quarter. Reduction in the
prices of groundnuts, rubber, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, and wheat, owing to output
recovery and improved supply, influenced the direction of the index. Improved
crop outlook, easing logistics disruptions, and weaker demand contributed to the
decline in prices. Conversely, the prices of soya beans and cotton rose during the
quarter, driven by robust export demand, lower output in key producing regions,
and high production costs.


Other Mineral
Commodities
Agricultural
Commodity Prices

Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
With corresponding quarter
With preceding quarter

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

Table 2: Selected Agricultural Export Commodities Q22025
(in dollars; Jan. 2010=100)
Commodity
Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
% Change
(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)

All Commodities

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Wheat

Rubber

Groundnut

Palm Oil

Soya Beans

Sources: World Bank Pink Sheet
Note: Indices of Average World Prices of Nigeria's Major Agricultural Export Commodities for the
Second Quarter of 2025 (in dollars; Jan. 2010=100)

1.5
Monetary Policy Stance
The stance of monetary policy was broadly accommodative in Q22025, on the back
of cooling inflation. The US Fed maintained its policy rate within the target 4.25 –
4.50 per cent band, following rising concerns that the prevailing trade war could
undermine the 2.00 per cent inflation target. Bank of Canada also maintained rate
at 2.75 per cent, as inflation continued to moderate. Similarly, The Bank of Japan,
held rate at 0.50 per cent, reflecting concerns over domestic growth. On the other
hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England cut rates to 2.15 and
4.25 per cent, respectively, from 2.65 and 4.50 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Monetary policy was also largely dovish in EMDEs, as price pressures continued to
ease. The Bank of Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India cut rates by 25- and 75basis-points, respectively, to 5.50 per cent, a-piece. The cuts were due to slowing
inflation, trade policy uncertainties, and growth priorities. Based on similar
considerations, the Bank of Russia and the Bank of Mexico also lowered rates to
20.00 and 8.00 per cent, respectively, from 21.00 and 9.00 per cent. The People’s
Bank of China and the South African Reserve Bank also eased with 10- and 50-basis
points cuts to 3.00 and 7.25 per cent, respectively, predicated on optimism over
ongoing trade negotiations and domestic growth priority. The Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey and the Central Bank of Brazil, however, raised rates to 46.00
and 15.00 per cent, respectively, from 42.50 and 14.25 per cent, in the preceding
quarter, reflecting efforts to effectively tame inflation in these jurisdictions.


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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 3: Central Bank Policy Rates (per cent)
Country
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
US

Canada

Euro Area

UK

Japan

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Source: Various Central Banks’ websites, Trading Economics.


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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.0
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Output in the domestic economy grew by 4.23 per cent, in real terms, in the second
quarter of 2025, compared with 3.13 per cent in the preceding quarter. The growth
was driven by higher outcomes in both oil and non-oil activities. The industrial
sector was particularly active, reflecting increased activities in the manufacturing
and mining subsectors. Inflation pressure continued to moderate in Q22025,
reflecting the decline in the non-food component of the price basket.

2.1 Real Sector Developments
Growth in the domestic economy quickened to 4.23 per cent in Q22025, from 3.13
per cent in Q12025, driven by both oil and non-oil economies. The growth was
supported by resilient consumer and infrastructural spending and crystallisation of
reforms in the oil industry. The oil sector expanded by 20.46 per cent, compared
with 1.87 per cent in Q12025, and contributed 0.72 percentage point to overall
growth. In the non-oil sector output grew by 3.64 per cent, compared with 3.19
per cent in the preceding quarter, contributing 3.51 percentage points to overall
growth. The sector’s stronger performance was driven by activities in the
information & communication and the crop production subsectors.
Figure 10: Real GDP Growth Rate (Y-on-Y), Q22022-Q22025
Source: National Bureau of Statistic


% of GDP
Oil GDP
Non-oil GDP
Total GDP

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.1.1 Sectoral Performance
Growth in the review period was strong in all three economic sectors: services,
industry and agriculture. The services sector grew at a slower pace by 3.94 per cent
in Q22025, compared with 4.33 per cent, though higher than the 3.83 per cent
recorded in Q22024. Despite the slowdown, services accounted for 56.53 per cent
of aggregate GDP and remained the most dominant sector, as it contributed 2.23
percentage points to overall growth. Agriculture and industry accounted for 26.16
and 0.75 per cent and contributed 17.31 and 1.25 percentage points to growth.

Figure 11: Sectoral Growth Rate of Real GDP, Q22022- Q22025

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Within the services sector, the information and communications subsector (ICT)
expanded the most by 6.61 per cent (contributing 0.72 percentage point to output
growth). The expansion was on account of higher investment in the subsector,
particularly, the recent investment of US$1 billion in telecom infrastructure by
telcos to boost telephony services. The real estate subsector recorded the second
largest contribution to the services sector. The subsector grew by 3.79 per cent
and contributed 0.49 percentage point to overall growth. The performance was
buoyed by the adoption of smart home technologies, PropTech, diaspora
investment, and public investment to provide affordable housing and
infrastructure development.
Similarly, the finance & insurance subsector expanded by 16.13 per cent,
compared with 15.03 per cent and 0.29 per cent in the preceding and
corresponding periods, respectively. The growth reflected growth, higher interest
income, accruals from increased use of digital services and gains from the banking
sector recapitalisation policy. Uptick in general economic activities during the
period supported the 1.29 per cent growth in the trade subsector growth, with a
contribution of 0.24 percentage point to the overall growth in Q22025.

Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total GDP

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CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
The expansion in the agriculture sector quickened by 2.82 per cent in the quarter
under review, compared with growth of 0.07 and 2.60 per cent in the preceding
and corresponding quarters. Crop production dominated expansion in the sector,
growing by 3.32 per cent, albeit slower than the 3.71 per cent growth recorded in
Q12025. The moderation underscored weather patterns, disruptions in logistics
caused by disproportionate rainfalls, and shift in the planting-harvesting cycle. The
forestry subsector expanded slower by 1.66 per cent, compared with 1.82 per cent
in Q12025, while the livestock subsector recovered to a growth of 1.44 per cent,
relative to the contraction of 16.89 per cent in the preceding period. The fishing
also rebounded to a growth of 2.57 per cent after three consecutive quarters of
contraction. The impressive performance of the agriculture sector was attributed
to increased timber production for construction purposes, festivity-driven demand
(Easter and Sallah), and availability of feeds.
With a robust growth of 7.46 per cent in Q22025, the industry sector contributed
1.25 percentage points to aggregate growth and exceeded the 3.42 per cent
expansion in the preceding quarter. This outcome was corroborated by the
expansion in estimated index of industrial production (IIP) which rose by 3.99 per
cent on year-on-year (y-o-y) basis.
Table 4: Index of Industrial Production
Period
IIP
Y-on-Y Change
Q22024
95.71
4.15
Q32024
94.97
2.01
Q42024
93.33
1.76
Q12025
109.56
4.17
Q22025
99.53
3.99
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IIP refers to index of industrial production

Growth in the industry sector was attributed to increased public sector investment
in construction, mining & quarrying and the manufacturing activities. The mining
& quarrying subsector led growth in the industrial sector, expanding by 20.86 per
cent, from 2.97 per cent in Q12025, and contributing 0.76 percentage point to total
growth. The robust growth reflected increased crude oil production and the
increased private sector participation in the Nigerian oil industry, aided by the
Petroleum Industry Act 2021.


17 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 5: Index of Mining Production
Period
IMP
Y-on-Y Change
Q22024
53.44
7.74
Q32024
53.78
3.22
Q42024
45.51
2.22
Q12025
65.52
8.23
Q22025
57.28
7.19
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMP refers to the index of mining production

The observed improvement in mining activities was corroborated by the estimated
index of mining production (IMP), which increased by 7.19 per cent (y-o-y).
The manufacturing subsector continued to expand in the review period, rising by
1.60 per cent, compared with 1.69 per cent in the preceding quarter. The
performance was spurred by the relative exchange rate stability, increasing
electricity supply, rising consumer demand, and positive business confidnece. In
congruence, the estimated index of manufacturing production rose by 1.77 per
cent (y-o-y).
Table 6: Index of Manufacturing Production
Period
IMANP
Y-on-Y Change
Q22024
175.73
1.29
Q32024
185.16
0.90
Q42024
196.13
1.79
Q12025
211.38
1.44
Q22025
178.84
1.77
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IMANP refers to index of manufacturing production

Other subsectors of the industrial sector also expanded, as the construction
subsector grew by 5.27 per cent, compared with 6.21 per cent in the preceding
quarter. The electricity, gas, steam & air conditioner, and the water supply,
sewage, & waste management subsectors expanded by 11.47 and 10.60 per cent,
respectively, compared with 18.65 and 9.43 per cent in Q12025.
The estimated average manufacturing capacity utilisation rose by 0.20 percentage
point to 62.60 per cent, from 62.40 per cent in the preceding quarter, indicating
uptick in manufacturing activity.


Capacity Utilisation

18 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

Figure 12: Selected Top Subsectors with contribution to GDP Growth and Growth
Rates (%) in Q22025
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Figure 13: Subsector with Negative Contribution to GDP Growth and Growth Rate (%)
in Q22025
Source: National Bureau of Statistic

Nigeria’s crude oil production rose in Q22025, following the completion of
maintenance at the Trans-Niger Pipeline and enhanced security around oil
infrastructure. Nigeria's average crude oil production, excluding condensates, rose
to 1.48 mbpd from 1.47 mbpd in the preceding quarter, but remained below the
country’s OPEC quota of 1.50 mbpd. Total crude production, including blended
and unblended condensates, increased by 0.60 per cent to 1.68 mbpd, from 1.67
mbpd. The growth was attributed to increased output from Bonny, Forcados, and
Qua Iboe crude streams/terminals that followed the effective maintenance and
security of major pipelines.


Crude Oil Production and
Export

(2.57%) Fishing
(2.35%) Human Health & Social Services
(10.60%) Water supply, sewage, waste Mang.
(3.08%) Administrative and Support Services
(1.79%) Public Administration
(2.27%) Professional, Scientific &...
(1.64%) Livestock
(22.09%)Transportation and Storage
(1.60%) Manufacturing
(11.47%) Electricity,Gas,Steam & Air...
(5.27%) Construction
(1.29%) Trade
(16.13%) Financial and Insurance
(3.79%) Real Estate
(3.32%) Crop Production
(6.61%) Information and Communication
(20.86%) Mining and Quarrying
-0.04
Other Services (-3.00%)

19 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 14: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production and OPEC Quota

Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)

The estimated index of electricity production increased by 3.53 per cent (y-o-y),
to 430.05, compared with the level in the preceding quarter, due to continued
efforts to improve electricity generation and transmission. The energy sector
continued to benefit from sustained implementation of various power projects,
including the Siemens project.

Table 7: Index of Electricity Production
Period
IEP
Y-on-Y Change
Q22024
415.40
6.79
Q32024
209.93
5.55
Q42024
257.17
-1.64
Q12025
145.24
2.96
Q22025
430.05
3.53
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: IEP refers to index of electricity production
Estimated electricity generation in Q22025 increased by 9.21 per cent to an
average of 4,916.33 MW/h from 4,501.68 MW/h. Also, estimated electricity
consumption at an average of 4,254.65 MW/h, represented an increased by 11.67
per cent, from 3,810.14 MW/h in the preceding period.


Q1 2024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
mbpd
Crude Oil Production
OPEC Quota
Crude Oil plus Condensate
Electricity Generation/
Consumption
Index of Electricity
production

20 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025


Box 1: Prices of Monitored Domestic Agricultural Commodities
The estimated prices of most of the monitored domestic agricultural commodities
decreased in Q22025, compared with Q12025 and Q22024. The price changes ranged
from 0.80 per cent for rice (agric.) to 39.34 per cent for beans (white). The development
was driven, primarily, by improved supply of some of the staples, following the temporary
suspension of retaliatory global tariffs. However, on account of seasonality, 9 of the 20
monitored commodities recorded price increases during the review, ranging from 3.62
per cent for agric. eggs to 23.95 per cent for onion bulb.

Prices of Selected Domestic Agricultural Commodities in Second Quarter 2025

Food Items

2024Q2/a
2025Q1/b
2025Q2/b
%
Change
%
Change
Unit

(1) & (3)
(2) & (3)
Agric. eggs medium size
1kg

Beans: brown, sold loose
"

Beans: white-black eye, sold
loose
"

Gari white, sold loose
"

Gari yellow, sold loose
"

Groundnut oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Irish potato
"

Maize grain white, sold loose
"

Maize grain yellow, sold loose
"

Onion bulb
"

Palm oil: 1 bottle, specify bottle
"

Rice agric, sold loose
"

Rice local, sold loose
"

Rice, medium grained
"

Rice, imported high quality,
sold loose
"

Sweet potato
"

Tomato
"

Vegetable oil: 1 bottle, specify
bottle
"

Wheat flour: prepackaged
(Golden Penny)
2kg

Yam tuber
1kg

Sources: (a) National Bureau of Statistics (b) Staff Estimates

21 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

2.1.2 Inflation
Inflation pressure continued to ease in Q22025, as the rise in non-food prices
moderated. Headline inflation (y-o-y) slowed to 22.22 per cent in June, from 24.23
per cent in the preceding quarter, due largely to the impact of tight monetary and
sustained exchange rate stability.

Figure 15: Headline, Food and Core Inflation (y-o-y)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The momentum of inflation continued to increasingly decelerate. In June, inflation
momentum declined by 0.76 percentage point, reflecting the impact of sustained
monetary tightening, improved food supply conditions, and relative exchange rate
stability.

Figure 16: Inflation Momentum

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics


Headline
Food
Core
per cent
Q12025
Q22025

FEB -25
M AR -25
APR -25
M AY -25
JUN-25
Headline
Inflation
Inflation
Momentum

22 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

Core inflation eased to 22.76 per cent from 24.43 per cent, driven mainly by slower
increases in the prices of housing, utilities, transport, and household equipment.
The moderation reflected the impact of sustained monetary tightening, and
relative exchange rate stability. Food inflation, however, rose slightly to 21.97 per
cent, from 21.79 per cent, due to lingering insecurity in key food-producing
regions, and elevated input prices.

Urban inflation dropped to 22.72 per cent, from 26.12 per cent in the preceding
quarter, underlining declining demand pressures, lower logistics costs, and lower
exchange rate pass-through effects. The moderation was supported by favourable
base effects and a gradual dissipation of initial policy shocks. Rural inflation also
declined to 20.85 per cent from 20.89 per cent. The relatively slower pace of
decline in rural inflation mirrors the persistence of food-related cost pressures.

Inflation varied across states in the federation, with Borno state recording the
highest inflation among the states at 47.40 per cent, followed by Ebonyi and
Bayelsa states at 30.62 and 28.64 per cent, respectively. Insecurity and structural
challenges continued to drive inflation in these states. Conversely, Zamfara state
had the lowest inflation rate at 9.90 per cent, followed by Yobe and Sokoto states
13.51 and 15.78 per cent, respectively, due primarily to weaker demand.

Figure 17: Food and Headline Inflation across States in Q22025

Source: National Bureau of Statistics


Abia
Abuja
Adamawa
Akwa Ibom
Anambra
Bauchi
Bayelsa
Benue
Borno
Cross River
Delta
Ebonyi
Edo
Ekiti
Enugu
Gombe
Imo
Jigawa
Kaduna
Kano
Katsina
Kebbi
Kogi
Kwara
Lagos
Nassarawa
Niger
Ogun
Ondo
Osun
Oyo
Plateau
Rivers
Sokoto
Taraba
Yobe
Zamfara
per cent
Food Inflation
Headline Inflation
Core & Food
Inflation
State Level
Inflation
Urban/Rural
Inflation

23 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.1.3 Socio-Economic Developments
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the revised National Urban
Development Policy (NUDP) to address Nigeria’s rapid urbanisation over the next
decade. As a proactive, inclusive, and climate-resilient framework, the policy was
designed to strengthen urban governance, enhance infrastructural development
and improve the quality of life.
2.2
Fiscal Sector Developments
Federation revenue increased by 15.03 per cent in Q22025, signalling improvement
in fiscal conditions. The increase was driven largely by higher non-oil receipts,
which contributed 61.03 per cent to gross federation earnings in the review period.
Revenue to the three tiers of government increased by 2.36 per cent, reflecting high
statutory deductions, while the public debt stock (33.10% of GDP) was below the
national debt ceiling of 40.00 and the IMF-prescribed threshold of 70.00 per cent
for Market-Access Countries.
2.2.1 Federation Account Operations
Receipts into the Federation Account increased in Q22025, owing to improved
earnings from oil and non-oil sources. At ₦8.31 trillion, provisional gross
Federation Account receipts was 15.02 per cent above earnings in Q12025, driven,
majorly, by increased collections from corporate tax and petroleum profit tax
(PPT). Non-oil revenue remained dominant, accounting for 61.03 per cent of gross
federation revenue, while oil revenue constituted the balance.
Non-oil revenue, at ₦5.07 trillion, rose by 7.50 per cent from the level in the
preceding quarter. The increase was attributed to higher collections from
corporate tax and customs & excise duties, reflecting seasonality in the filing of tax
returns by companies1. Oil revenue rose by 29.17 per cent to ₦3.24 trillion,
relative to Q12025, as higher crude oil production boosted receipts from
petroleum profit tax, royalties, and related revenue sources.


1 Corporate tax is composed of company income tax, withholding tax and capital gain tax.

Summary
Federation Revenue
Housing &
Infrastructure

24 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 18: Federally Collected Revenue (₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance

Figure 19: Contribution to Federation Revenue

Source: Staff Estimates Based on data from the OAGF and FMoF

Oil
2,506.39
3,237.39
Non-Oil
4,715.97
5,069.65
Federally
Collected
Revenue

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025

Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue

25 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 8: Federation Revenue and Distribution (₦ Billion)

Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
*Budget
Federally Collected Revenue

Oil

Crude Oil & Gas Exports

PPT

Royalties

Domestic Crude Oil/Gas Sales

Others

Non-oil

Corporate Tax

Customs & Excise Duties

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Independent Revenue of Fed. Govt.

Others**

Total Deductions/Transfers

Federally Collected Revenue Less
Deductions & Transfers***

plus:


Additional Revenue

Excess Crude Revenue

Non-oil Excess Revenue/ EMTL

Exchange Gain

Total Distributed Balance

Federal Government

Statutory

VAT

State Government

Statutory

VAT

13% Derivation

Local Government

Statutory

VAT

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation.
Note* Includes Education Tax, Customs Special Levies (Federation Account), National Information Technology
Development Fund, Customs Special Levies, Solid Minerals & Other Mining revenue, and other non-regular
earnings. **Deductions include cost of revenue collections and JVC cash calls, while transfers entail provisions for
FGN Independent revenue and other non-federation revenue. /1 Provisional.

From the gross receipts of ₦8,31 trillion, ₦3.67 trillion was deducted as statutory
deductions and transfers, while ₦278.23 billion was added from non-oil excess
and exchange gain revenue accounts. This resulted in a net balance of ₦4.92
trillion which was shared among the three tiers of government. The Federal, state,
and local governments received ₦1.63 trillion, ₦1.67 trillion and ₦1.21 trillion,
respectively, while the balance of ₦409.23 billion was allocated to the 13%

26 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
derivation fund to oil-producing states. The distribution was 2.36 per cent above
sharing in the preceding quarter.

Figure 20: Top Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q22025
(₦ Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance
Figure 21: Bottom-Five Recipients of Federation Allocation in Q22025 (₦Billion)

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation and Federal Ministry of Finance
Revenue allocation to subnational governments revealed that Lagos topped the
list with ₦0.27 trillion, followed by Delta (₦0.21 trillion), Rivers (₦0.20 trillion),
Akwa Ibom (₦0.17 trillion), and Kano (₦0.14 trillion). On the other hand, Ebonyi
(₦0.05 trillion), Gombe (₦0.05 trillion), Nasarawa (₦0.05 trillion), Ekiti (₦0.06
trillion), and Kwara (₦0,06 trillion) were the bottom recipients.
At end-March 2025, public debt stock was below the 70.00 per cent of GDP
threshold for Market-Access Countries. Total public debt outstanding stood at
₦149,389.00 billion (33.10% of GDP), at end-March 2025, indicating 3.26 per cent
increase relative to the level at end-December 2024, due to new borrowings. A
breakdown of the consolidated public debt showed that domestic debt accounted
for 51.46 per cent, while external debt constituted 48.54 per cent. Of the
consolidated public debt stock, FGN owed ₦145.52 trillion (97.41%), while state
governments owed the balance.

Lagos
Delta
Rivers
Akwa-Ibom
Bayelsa

Ebonyi
Gombe
Nassarawa
Ekiti
Kwara
Public Debt

27 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
A disaggregation of the FGN debt showed that domestic debt was N70.63 trillion,
constituting 48.54 per cent, while external debt constituted N74.89 trillion
(51.46%). Further analysis of FGN domestic debt revealed that FGN Bonds
maintained dominance, with 79.85 per cent, followed by treasury bills (16.95%),
promissory notes (1.74%), and FGN Sukuk (1.32%), while ‘others’ constituted the
balance2. Of the total external debt stock, multilateral debt accounted for 48.80
per cent, commercial (38.08%) and bilateral loans (13.13%).
Debt service at end-March 2025 rose by 46.63 per cent to N4,.75 trillion, from
N3.24 trillion at end-December 2024, owing to increased interest payments on
both domestic and external borrowings. A breakdown showed that domestic debt
service constituted 54.95 per cent, while external debt service accounted for
45.05 per cent.
Figure 22: FGN External and Domestic Debt Compositions (₦ Billion)

Source: Debt Management Office


2 Includes treasury bonds (0.00%), green bond (0.02%) and special FGN savings bond (0.07%).


Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
FGN External Debt
FGN Domestic Debt

28 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

Figure 23: Composition of Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument

Source: Debt Management Office

Figure 24: Composition of External Debt Stock
Source: Debt Management Office

FGN Bonds
79.85%
Treasury Bills
16.96%
FGN SUKUK
1.33%
Promisory Notes
1.74%
Others
0.13%
Multilateral
48.80%
Bilateral
13%
Commercial
38%

29 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.3
Monetary and Financial Developments
Broad money supply (M3) expanded moderately at end-June 2025, driven largely
by higher net foreign assets (NFA). Credit to other sectors remained subdued,
reflecting the impact of tight monetary conditions, as the Bank sustained efforts to
rein in inflation. Activities increased in the fixed-income market, further tightening
liquidity conditions in the banking system. Consequently, key money market rates
trended upward, but remained within the policy corridor. Overall, the financial
sector remained stable and resilient, as reflected by key prudential indicators. The
Nigerian capital market continued its bullish run, driven by strong buy-side action,
buoyed by investor confidence and relatively stable macroeconomic environment.

2.3.1 Monetary Developments
Reserve money expanded at end-June 2025, compared to its level at end-December
2024, driven wholly by increased liabilities to ‘other depository corporations’
(ODCs). Reserve money grew by 6.08 per cent to ₦34.66 trillion from ₦32.67
trillion at end-December 2024. The expansion was driven by 8.89 per cent growth
in liabilities to ODCs, underpinned by notable growth in excess reserves (32.35%)
and required reserves (8.23%). In contrast, currency-in-circulation (CIC) declined
by 7.97 per cent, in congruence with the Bank’s monetary policy stance.
Figure 25: Developments in Reserve Money and Money Multiplier

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
₦ Trillion
Currency in Circulation
Liabilities to ODCs
Reserve Money
M3 Multiplier (RHS)
Reserve Money
Summary

30 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 26: Reserve Money Growth Over end-December

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Relative to the level at end-December 2024, broad money supply (M3) expanded
by 3.44 per cent to ₦117.25 trillion at end-June 2025, from ₦115.82 trillion (2.17
per cent growth) in the preceding quarter. Similarly, M2 grew by 3.44 per cent to
₦117.24 trillion, while narrow money (M1) increased by 2.71 per cent to ₦39.86
trillion.
On the asset side, the modest expansion in M3 was largely attributed to higher net
foreign assets (NFA), which contributed 8.39 percentage points to overall M3
growth, and offset the contraction in net domestic assets (NDA). Specifically, NFA
rose by 29.74 per cent, followed the 7.89 per cent increase in claims on nonresidents. In contrast, NDA declined by 6.89 per cent, reflecting the 20.18 and 2.43
per cent reduction in net claims on central government and claims on other
sectors, respectively. Claims on other sectors was weighed by the decline in claims
on the private sector (-2.51%), other financial corporations (-4.48%) and state and
local government (-10.10%) amid tight monetary policy stance.


Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Per cent (%)
Liabilities to ODCs
Currency in Circulation
Reserve Money

31 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 9: Money and Credit Growth over preceding December (%)

Jun-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Annualised
Jun-25

Target
Contribution
to M3 growth
(Jun-25)
Net Foreign Assets


52.90
8.39
Claims on Non-residents

Liabilities to Non-residents

Net Domestic Assets

Domestic Claims

Net Claims on Central
Government


8.81
-4.83
Claims on Central Government

Liabilities to Central Government


4.87
Claims on Other Sectors

Claims on Other Financial
Corporations

Claims on State and Local
Government

Claims on Public Non-financial
Corporations

Claims on Private Sector

Total Monetary Assets (M3)

Currency Outside Depository
Corporations

Transferable Deposits

Narrow Money (M1)

Other Deposits

Broad Money (M2)

Securities Other than Shares

Total Monetary Liabilities
(M3)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: The numbers for June 2025 are provisional.

On the liabilities side, the growth in M3 was primarily driven by increases in other
deposits and transferable deposits. Other deposits grew by 3.83 per cent,
contributing 2.52 percentage points to M3 growth, while transferable deposits
rose by 4.99 per cent, adding 1.48 percentage points. Currency outside depository
corporations (CODCs) and securities-other-than-shares, however, declined by
12.32 and 37.85 per cent, respectively. These contractions moderated M3 growth
by 0.57 percentage point (-0.56 percentage point from CODCs and -0.01
percentage point from securities other than shares). The sustained decline in
CODCs reflected continued moderation in cash-based transactions, indicative of
the increasing adoption of electronic and digital payment channels.
Money Supply

32 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

2.3.2 Sectoral Utilisation of Credit
Total credit by ODCs to the economy declined by 1.62 per cent to ₦58.14 trillion,
from ₦59.10 trillion at end-March 2025, as tight monetary conditions remained
restrictive. Despite overall decline in sectoral credit, credit to the services and
agriculture sectors rose by 5.23 and 0.69 per cent to ₦32.41 trillion and ₦3.19
trillion, respectively.
Further analysis indicated that the services sector accounted for the largest share
of credit at 55.74 per cent, followed by industry (38.77%) and agriculture (5.49%).
Table 10: Sectoral Credit Allocation
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Consumer credit outstanding expanded by 6.48 per cent to ₦4.27 trillion in the
review period, relative to end-March 2025, due largely to increased loan demand
during the Salah festivities. A disaggregation of the consumer credit portfolio
revealed that personal loans accounted for 54.10 per cent, while retail loans made
up the balance. Personal loan outstanding grew by 4.52 per cent to ₦2.31 trillion,
while retail loans expanded by 8.89 per cent to ₦1.96 trillion, relative to levels at
end-March 2025.


Sectors
Credit Allocation (₦ Trillion)
Share in Total (%)
Jun-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
Jun-24
Mar-25 Jun-25
Agriculture

Industry

Manufacturing

Services

Finance, Insurance
& Capital Market

Trade/General
Commerce

TOTAL

Consumer
Credit
Sectoral Credit
Utilisation


33 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 27: Consumer Credit Outstanding
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

2.3.3 Financial Developments
2.3.3.1 Money Market Development
Liquidity in the banking system reduced in Q22025, owing to robust auctions of
OMO bills. Daily average liquidity in the banking system declined to ₦0.16 trillion
from ₦0.25 trillion in Q12025. The reduction in system liquidity was driven
primarily by net withdrawal in system’s liquidity through Nigerian Treasury Bills
(NTBs), Open Market Operations (OMO) bills, Federal Government of Nigeria
(FGN) bonds, and Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) debits by the Bank.
Figure 28: Average Banking System Liquidity (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Activities at the standing lending facility (SLF) window reduced significantly,
compared with a reduction at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window. The value
of transaction at the SLF window fell by 83.92 per cent to ₦7.97 trillion, while
transactions at the SDF window rose by 153.93 per cent to ₦48.40 trillion.

Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-25
₦ Trillion
Personal Loan
Retail Loan
Total
0.27
0.25
0.16
Q2 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Industry Liquidity
Condition

34 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Applicable rates at the window remained unchanged at 32.50 per cent for the SLF
(MPR+5%) and 26.50 per cent for the SDF (MPR-1%). Additionally, the interest rate
on converted Intra-day Lending Facility (ILF) transactions to SLF was maintained at
37.50 per cent (MPR+10%).
Figure 29: Transactions at the Standing Facilities Window

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Issuance of Open Market Operations (OMO) bills increased during the review
period. The total amount of CBN bills offered, subscribed, and allotted was ₦5.15
trillion, ₦9.23 trillion, and ₦8.16 trillion (tenors: 104 to 350 days), compared with
₦2.30 trillion, ₦8.25 trillion, and ₦4.57 trillion, respectively (tenors: 347 to 364
days) in Q12025. The bid rates averaged 23.32 (±2.93) per cent, while the stop
rates averaged 23.68 (±1.31) per cent. A total of ₦4.26 trillion maturing CBN bills
were repaid, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of ₦3.90 trillion.

Figure 30: Open Market Operations (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


Q22024
Q12025
Q22025
₦ Trillion
Standing Lending Facility
Standing Deposit Facility
Offer
Subscription
Allotment
Repayment
Q2 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

₦ Trillion
OMO Operations

35 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Subscriptions for both NTBs and FGN bonds declined, suggesting moderating
banking system liquidity. Total NTBs (91-, 182- and 364-day tenors) offered,
subscribed, and allotted amounted to ₦2.86 trillion, ₦7.47 trillion, and ₦2.97
trillion, respectively, compared with ₦5.12 trillion (offered), ₦15.20 trillion
(subscribed), and ₦5.54 trillion (allotted) in the preceding quarter. The average
stop rate decreased to 19.78 (±3.15) per cent from 21.81 (±4.81) per cent in
Q12025.

Figure 31: Primary Market NTBs (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

FGN bonds of 5-, 7-, and 9-year tranches were offered for sale during the review
period. The total amount offered, subscribed and allotted declined to ₦0.75
trillion, ₦1.54 trillion, and ₦0.80 trillion, respectively, compared with ₦1.10
trillion, ₦2.41 trillion, and ₦1.78 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter. The
average bid and marginal rates were 18.24 (± 3.24) and 18.87 (±1.72) per cent,
compared with 22.00(±7.00) and 20.80(±1.80) per cent, respectively, in the
preceding quarter.
Figure 32: Primary Market Auctions of FGN Bonds (₦ Trillion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Q2 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Offer
1.47
5.12
2.86
Subscription
6.98
15.2
7.47
Allotment
2.85
5.54
2.97
Repayment
2.85
5.54
2.96

Q2 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Offer
1.35
1.1
0.75
Subscription
1.78
2.41
1.54
Allotment
1.3
1.78
0.8

0.5

1.5

2.5

36 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

Money market rates inched up but remained within the policy corridor. Driven by
the relative decrease in banking system liquidity, the average interbank call rate
(27.55%) and open repo (OPR) rate (27.70%), rose slightly by 0.98 and 0.72
percentage point (pp), respectively, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the Nigeria Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) call and NIBOR 30-day rate
increased to 27.47 and 27.33 per cent, respectively, from 26.98 and 27.08 per cent
in Q12025. With the monetary policy rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent and an
asymmetric corridor of +500/-100 basis points (bps), money market rates were
within the policy corridor.
Figure 33: Developments in Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Note: OPR = Open Repo rate which used to be Open Buy Back (OBB) rate

The average prime and maximum lending rates declined marginally by 0.09 and
0.34 pp to 18.18 and 29.82 per cent, while the weighted average term deposit
(WAVTD) rate rose by 0.30 pp to 9.93 per cent. Consequently, the average spread
between the WAVTD rate and maximum lending rate narrowed to 19.89 pps, from
19.93 pps.


Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Per cent (%)
Interbank Call
OBB
NIBOR Call
NIBOR-30day
Upper Corridor
Lower Corridor
Interest Rate
Developments

37 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 34: Average Term Deposit and Lending Rates

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Note: PLR= Prime lending rate; MXLR= Maximum lending rate; WATD= Weighted Average term
deposit rate.

2.3.3.2 Capital Market Developments
The Nigerian capital market remained bullish, as relatively stable macroeconomic
environment and a positive outlook for the second half of 2025 supported positive
investor sentiment and persistent buy-side momentum. The Nigerian stock
exchange sustained its gains in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by strong
performances in the equities and bonds markets. The momentum was indicative
of robust corporate earnings, sustained investor confidence and increased
participation, underlain by continued exchange rate stability and disinflation.
Consequently, aggregate market capitalisation rose by 9.99 per cent to N126.73
trillion, from N115.22 trillion.
Activities in the equities and debt segments increased by 14.61 and 3.72 per cent,
with closing values at N75.95 trillion and N50.75 trillion, respectively. Similarly,
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) rose by 3.87 per cent to N25.79 billion. Further
disaggregation showed that equities market accounted for 59.93 per cent of total
capitalisation, while debt and ETFs constituted 40.05 and 0.02 per cent,
respectively.
The All-Share Index (ASI) grew by 13.55 per cent to 119,978.57, from 105,660.64
in the preceding quarter. Broad-based sectoral demand, portfolio shifts from
other asset classes, improved market liquidity and strategic bargain- and valuehunting activities in mid- to large-cap stocks propelled the ASI. The momentum
was supported by positive macroeconomic tailwinds and improved corporate
earnings.

Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Percentage point
Per cent (%)
PLR
MLR
WATD
Spread(RHS)
Market Capitalisation
NGX All- Share
Index

38 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 35: Aggregate Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Sectoral indices in the Nigerian equities market were predominantly bullish in the
quarter, reflecting widespread positive sentiment, as advancers outpaced
decliners. Consequently, the NGXCNSMRGDS led the rally, increasing by 45.16 per
cent, followed by NGXGROWTH and NGXLOTUSISLM, which recorded gains of
27.27 and 22.23 per cent, respectively. The NGXOILGAS, however, lost 0.86 per
cent.


Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
N' Trillion
Index points
Aggregate Market Capitalisation (RHS)
All-Share Index (LHS)

39 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 36: Quarter-on-Quarter Changes in Sectoral Indices

Source: Nigeria Exchange (NGX) Limited

Table 11: Nigerian Exchange Limited Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Indices
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Change (%)
NGXOILGAS
2,458.69
2,437.47
-0.86
NGXASEM
1,587.89
1,595.12
0.46
NGXSOVBND
626.86
653.01
4.17
NGXINDUSTR
3,489.87
3,638.15
4.25
NGXCOMMDTY
1,003.58
1,047.21
4.35
NGXINS
698.54
755.52
8.16
NGXMERIVAL
10,274.99
11,150.56
8.52
NGXBNK
1,159.99
1,280.41
10.38
NGXAFRBVI
2,646.53
2,957.78
11.76
NGX30
3,921.32
4,423.04
12.79
NGXPREMIUM
10,171.85
11,576.85
13.81
NGXCG
3,009.51
3,436.94
14.20
NGXPENBRD
1,890.00
2,179.87
15.34
NGXMAINBOARD
5,068.04
5,888.97
16.20
NGXAFRHDYI
16,758.62
19,489.91
16.30
NGXMERIGRW
6,930.25
8,149.49
17.59
NGXPENSION
4,785.90
5,798.71
21.16
NGXLOTUSISLM
7,551.18
9,229.65
22.23
NGXGROWTH
7,401.79
9,420.18
27.27
NGXCNSMRGDS
1,815.85
2,635.86
45.16
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

Trading activities on the Exchange fell in the review quarter, as the value of traded
securities declined by 15.32 per cent to N0.94 trillion from N1.11 trillion in
Q12025. Similarly, the volume of traded securities decreased by 11.06 per cent to


40 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
34.57 billion shares from 38.87 billion shares in the previous quarter. Conversely,
the total number of deals increased by 19.86 per cent to 982,055 from 819,343 in
Q12025.

Figure 37: Volume and Value of Traded Securities
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited

During the review quarter, a total of 20 securities were listed on the Exchange,
comprising 10 new listings and 10 supplementary offerings. In addition, there
were two suspensions, one reinstatement of a previously suspended issuer and
three delisting. Overall, the total number of listings was lower than the 21
recorded in the preceding quarter.


Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q42024 Q12025 Q22025
Shares (Billion)
N' Trillion
Volume of traded securities
Value of traded securities

41 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Table 12: Listings, De-listings, and Suspensions on the Nigerian Exchange Limited
Source: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited
Notes: FGN = Federal Government of Nigeria; Plc = Public Limited Liability Company; N/A = Not
available.


3 Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Savings Bond
Company/Security
Shares Units/Price
Remarks
19.89% FGN MAY 2033
327,692,592 units
New listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
95,986,501 units
New listing
Legend Internet Plc
2,000,000,000 units of ordinary shares
of 50 Kobo each at N5.64 per share
New listing
16.635% FGS3 MAR 2027
969,038,000 units
New listing
17.635% FGS MAR 2028
3,489,239,000 units
New listing
16.046% FGS APR 2027
1,135,475 units
New listing
17.046% FGS APR 2028
3,203,072
units
New listing
16.173% FGS MAY 2027
840,434 units
New listing
17.173% FGS MAY 2028
3,466,410
units
New listing
TSL SPV Plc
5,000,000
Units
New listing
Wema Bank Plc
14,286,785,417 units of ordinary shares of
50 Kobo each at N10.45 per share
Supplementary
listing
First HoldCo Plc
5,982,548,799 units of ordinary shares of
50 Kobo each at N25.00 per share
Supplementary
listing
Multi-Trex Integrated Foods
Plc
1,719,576,719 units of Ordinary Shares of
50 Kobo each at ₦1.89 Per Share
Supplementary
listing
19.30% FGN APR 2029
71,127,200 units
Supplementary
listing
19.89% FGN MAY 2033
449,771,362 units
Supplementary
listing
Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria
Infrastructure Debt Fund
(NIDF)
229,316 units
Supplementary
listing
United Bank for Africa
6,839,884,274 Ordinary Shares of 50
Kobo each at ₦35.00 per share
Supplementary
listing
Chams Holding Company Plc
2,348,030,000 units of Ordinary Shares of
50 Kobo
each at ₦1.70 Per Share
Supplementary
listing
Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc
2,944,772,083 Ordinary Shares of 50
Kobo Each
Supplementary
listing
Sterling Financial Holdings
Company Plc
6,659,927,623 Ordinary Shares of 50
Kobo Each
Supplementary
listing
Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc
All units
Suspension lifted
Golden Guinea Breweries Plc
All units
Suspended
Notore Chemical Industries
Plc
All units
Suspended
Capital Oil Plc;
All units
Delisted
Goldlink Insurance Plc;
All units
Delisted
Medview Airline Plc
All units
Delisted

42 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.3.3.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
The Nigerian banking sector remained resilient and stable as illustrated by key
financial soundness indicators. Liquidity ratio (LR) stood at 55.03 per cent,
significantly above the 30.00 per cent regulatory minimum, reflecting the banking
sector’s ability to meet maturing obligations and support credit intermediation.
The industry’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 13.43 per cent and remained
above the minimum threshold of 10.00 per cent, underscoring the sector’s robust
solvency and capacity to absorb credit and market shocks. The non-performing
loans (NPLs) ratio edged up by 0.09 percentage point to 5.63 per cent, above the
prudential limit of 5.00 per cent. Notwithstanding, the overall asset quality was
broadly stable, reinforcing the resilience and robustness of the financial system.
Figure 38: Key Financial Soundness Indicators
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria


CAR
NPL
LR
Per cent (%)
Benchmark
Q22025
Q12025

43 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

2.4
External Sector Developments
The performance of the external sector in Q22025 was influenced by the US tariffs
policy which heightened global uncertainty and fuelled volatility in commodity
prices. Despite these headwinds, deficit in the overall balance of payments reduced
significantly, relative to the level in the preceding quarter. In the current account,
the surplus balance increased, buoyed by higher trade surplus and remittances
inflow. The financial account was, however, in a net borrowing position, against a
net lending position in the preceding period. At US$37.81 billion, the external
reserves could cover 8.07 months of imports for goods and services or 12.25
months for goods only. At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the
average exchange rate showed relative stability at ₦1,581.06/US$, compared with
₦1,521.56/US$ in Q12025.

2.4.1
Current and Capital Account
The current and capital account recorded a higher surplus, as trade surplus and
remittances inflow improved further. The surplus in the current and capital
account rose to US$5.28 billion (8.69% of GDP), compared with US$2.85 billion
(4.51% of GDP) in the preceding quarter. The development reflected the higher
earnings from merchandise exports and increased inflow of diaspora remittances.
Figure 39: Current Account Balance (US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Earnings from merchandise exports rose in Q22025, due to higher proceeds from
gas and refined petroleum products exports. Aggregate export earnings rose by
7.04 per cent to US$14.90 billion, from US$13.92 billion in Q12025. A breakdown
showed that earnings from the export of crude oil, gas and refined petroleum
products rose to US$12.55 billion, from US$11.52 billion, following improved
export of gas and refined petroleum products. Non-oil exports, however, declined
to US$2.34 billion from US$2.40 billion in Q12025, due largely to decline in
agricultural exports, as global uncertainties weighed on commodity prices.

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Export
Performance

44 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Crude oil, gas and refined petroleum products exports continued to dominate
total merchandise export, accounting for 84.23 per cent of total earnings, with
non-oil exports making up the balance.
Merchandise import bills moderated in the review period, due to reduction in oil
and non-oil imports. Merchandise import bills fell to US$9.26 billion, from
US$10.34 billion in Q12025. A disaggregation indicated that import of petroleum
products decreased to US$2.58 billion from US$3.57 billion, as improvement in
domestic refining capacity lowered reliance on oil import. Similarly, importation of
non-oil products fell to US$6.68 billion from US$6.77 billion, owing largely to lower
machinery and raw material imports. By share, non-oil imports constituted 72.14
per cent of total import, while oil constituted the balance.
In terms of foreign exchange utilisation, industrial sector, mainly raw materials and
machinery, accounted for the largest share of merchandise imports, with 43.95
per cent. This was followed by the oil sector (27.87%) manufactured products
(11.11%), food products (10.66%), transport (4.67%), minerals (1.15%), and
agricultural products (0.59%).

Figure 40: Classification of Imports

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

In the services account, the deficit balance worsened, following increased outpayments for travels. The deficit expanded slightly to US$3.71 billion, from
US$3.70 billion in the preceding quarter. Total payments for services increased by
3.01 per cent to US$4.79 billion, driven by rise in travel demand from US$1.27
billion to US$1.69 billion. Payments for financial services also increased to US$0.12
billion from US$0.08 billion. A similar trend was observed for insurance & pension
services and government goods & services where payments rose to US$0.24
billion (5.01%), and US$0.17 billion (3.54%), respectively.
Industrial
43.95%
Food products
10.66%
Manufactured
Products
11.11%
Transport
4.67%
Agricultural Sector
0.59%
Minerals
1.15%
Oil Sector
27.87%
Merchandise
Import
Services

45 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Payments for transport services, however, declined by 6.67 per cent to US$1.54
billion, while those for other business and telecommunication services fell by
18.52 and 43.75 per cent to US$0.88 billion and US$0.09 billion, respectively.
In terms of composition, travels had the largest share of 35.28 per cent of services
out-payments. This was followed by transport (32.15), other business (18.37%),
and insurance & pension services (5.01). Telecommunications services
contributed 1.88 per cent, while financial and government services accounted for
3.54 and 2.51 per cent, respectively. The other categories of services accounted
for the balance.
Figure 41: Share of Service Out-Payments
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Receipts from the export of services increased by 13.68 per cent to US$1.08
billion, reflecting increased receipts from financial and transport services. Receipts
from financial services rose to US$0.12 billion from US$0.10 billion, while
transport services increased by 5.45 per cent to US$0.58 billion. Earnings from
travels and other business services rose by 28.57 and 50 per cent, respectively to
US$0.09 billion and US$0.03 billion. However, lower receipts were recorded for
telecommunication services and government goods & services, both of which
decreased by 50.00 and 7.69 per cent to US$0.02 billion and US$0.12 billion,
respectively.
A disaggregation of services receipt indicated that transport accounted for the
largest share, at 53.70 per cent, followed by financial services and government
goods & services (11.11% apiece), travels (8.33%), and insurance and pension
services (3.70%). Other categories of services accounted for the balance.

Transportation
32.15%
Travels
35.28%
Other business
services
18.37%
Insurance and
pension
5.01%
Financial services
3.54%
Telecommunication
1.88%
Government goods
and services
2.51%
Others
1.26%

46 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 42: Share of Services Receipts
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

The primary income balance improved in Q22025, on account of lower interest
payments on portfolio investments liabilities. The deficit in the primary income
account narrowed to US$2.16 billion, from US$2.31 billion. Further analysis
indicated that the deficit in the investment income sub-account narrowed to
US$2.24 billion from US$2.37 billion in Q12025, owing to lower interest payments
on portfolio investment liabilities. Surplus in the compensation of employees subaccount inched to US$0.08 billion from US$0.06 billion in the preceding quarter.
Figure 43: Primary Income Balance

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
A higher surplus was recorded in the secondary income account, driven by
increased inflow of diaspora remittances. The surplus in the secondary income
account rose by 4.31 per cent to US$5.51 billion, compared with US$5.29 billion
in the preceding quarter. The development was driven by higher inflow of private
sector transfers, particularly workers' remittances, which increased by 7.50 per
cent to US$5.30 billion. The higher inflow of remittances reflected the positive
effect of the Bank’s reforms aimed at bolstering non-resident transfers.


Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025

US$ Billion
Primary Income
Secondary Income
Transportation
53.70%
Travels
8.33%
Financial services
11.11%
Telecommunication
1.85%
Government goods
and services
11.11%
Insurance and
pension
3.70%
Others
10.20%

47 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Figure 44: Secondary Income Balance (US$ Billion)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

2.4.2
Financial Account
The financial account recorded a net borrowing position, on account of higher
inflow of short-term debt securities. A net incurrence of financial liabilities of
US$3.21 billion was recorded, against to a net acquisition of financial assets of
US$8.68 billion in Q12025.
The economy recorded a net incurrence of financial liabilities of US$5.44 billion,
in contrast to a net reduction in liabilities of US$9.26 billion in the preceding
quarter. The development was driven primarily by inflow of portfolio debt
securities. A disaggregation showed that portfolio investment liabilities posted a
net inflow of US$5.28 billion, against a net outflow of US$5.03 billion in the
preceding quarter. Similarly, other investment’ liabilities recorded a net inflow of
US$0.07 billion, in contrast to a net outflow of US$4.53 billion, due, largely, to
placement of currency and deposit against a withdrawal in the preceding quarter.
Foreign direct investment liabilities, however, fell to US$0.09 billion, from US$0.25
billion, attributed to higher inflow of equity and investment fund shares.
The economy recorded a net acquisition of financial assets worth US$2.23 billion,
compared to a disposal of US$0.58 billion in the preceding quarter. The
development was due to acquisition of foreign direct investment assets in the
review period, against a disposal in Q12025. Direct investment assets increased to
US$0.99 billion, from a disposal of US$0.55 billion in the preceding quarter. ‘Other
investment’ assets recorded a lower acquisition of US$2.16 billion, compared with
US$2.20 billion in the preceding quarter, reflecting the decline in the acquisition
of loan liabilities. Portfolio investment assets, however, resulted in a disposal

Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Government transfers
Remittances
Secondary income balance
Net Acquisition of
Assets
Net Incurrence of
Liability
Financial Account
Developments

48 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
worth US$0.65 billion, in contrast to an acquisition of US$0.48 billion in Q12025,
following the disposal of listed equity securities by resident investors.
2.4.3
External Debt
Nigeria’s external debt stock at end-June 2025 stood at US$46.98 billion,
representing 19.32 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) relative to 21.52 per
cent of GDP in the preceding quarter. Analysis of the composition of the external
debt showed that multilateral loans - comprising obligations to institutions such
as the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the African
Development Bank (AfDB) Group - amounted to US$23.19 billion, constituting
49.36 per cent of the total external debt. Commercial borrowings, (Eurobonds),
accounted for US$17.32 billion or 36.86 per cent, while bilateral loans from
sovereign sources amounted to US$6.20 billion, representing 13.21 per cent of the
total.
Total external debt service obligations, as at end-March 2025 stood at US$1.39
billion. A breakdown showed that principal repayments was US$0.76 billion or
54.67 per cent of total debt service obligations, interest payments constituted
45.32 per cent (US$0.63 billion), while other associated charges accounted for the
balance. A further disaggregation of interest payments indicated that commercial
debt instruments were the major source of debt service payments, with interest
payments on Eurobonds amounting to US$0.43 billion (68.25%), followed by
multilateral creditor, which stood at US$0.14 billion (22.22%). Interest payments
on bilateral debt obligations accounted for the balance.

2.4.4
International Investment Position (IIP)
The international investment position, at US$61.43 billion, was a higher net
financial liability. The stock of financial assets rose to US$119.00 billion, from
US$117.52 billion in the preceding quarter, driven primarily by an increase in other
investment assets. ‘Other investment’ assets increased to US$58.51 billion from
US$56.37 billion in the preceding quarter. The stock of direct and portfolio
investment assets decreased by 0.11 and 13.43 per cent to US$18.30 billion and
US$4.19 billion, respectively, relative to the levels in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, reserve assets fell to US$37.81 billion from US$37.82 billion in Q12025.
The stock of financial liabilities increased to US$180.43 billion, from US$176.34
billion due, mainly to a 15.79 per cent increase in portfolio investment liabilities to
US$40.62 billion. Other investment liabilities increased to US$70.02 billion from
US$68.94 billion in the preceding quarter. Direct investment liabilities, however,
decreased to US$69.64 billion from US$72.18 billion in Q12025.


External Debt
International
Investment Position

49 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
2.4.5 External Reserves
The external reserves remained robust, steadily above the 3-month benchmark of
import cover. The external reserves stood at US$37.81 billion at end-June 2025,
compared with US$37.82 billion at end-March 2025. The reserves could cover 8.07
months of imports for goods and services or 12.25 months for goods only.
Figure 45: External Reserves and Months of Import Cover
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that the shares of the
CBN and the FGN stood at US$32.95 billion and US$4.86 billion, respectively, while
the federation accounted for the balance. In terms of currency composition, the
US dollar continued to dominate reserves (US$28.93 billion or 76.51%), followed
by Special Drawing Rights (US$4.33 billion or 11.46%), Chinese yuan (US$3.38
billion or 8.94%), the euro (US$0.83 billion or 2.20%), and the British pound
(US$0.33 billion or 0.88%). Other currencies accounted for the balance.
2.4.6
Foreign Exchange Flows through the Economy
The economy recorded a decrease in net foreign exchange inflow, driven by a fall
in inflow through autonomous sources. The economy recorded a lower net foreign
exchange inflow of US$14.57 billion, compared with US$15.20 billion in the
preceding quarter. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow decreased by 5.40 per cent
to US$27.41 billion, from US$28.97 billion in Q12025. Foreign exchange outflow,
at US$12.83 billion, decreased by 6.81 per cent, relative to US$13.77 billion in the
preceding quarter.
Foreign exchange inflow through the Bank increased by 20.38 per cent to
US$10.02 billion, from US$8.32 billion, while autonomous inflow fell by 15.79 per
cent to US$17.39 billion, from US$20.65 billion in the preceding quarter.
International Reserves
Reserves Structure &
Composition
-5

Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
US$ Billion
External Reserves - LHS
Months of Import (Goods) - RHS
Months of Import (Goods and Services)- RHS

50 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025
Outflow through the Bank and autonomous sources decreased by 6.99 and 6.93
per cent to US$9.82 billion and US$3.01 billion, respectively, from US$10.54 billion
and US$3.23 billion in the preceding quarter.
Consequently, the autonomous sources recorded a net inflow of US$14.38 billion,
from US$17.41 billion in the preceding quarter. A net inflow of US$195.65 million
was recorded through the Bank, compared with a net outflow of US$2.21 billion
in Q12025.
Figure 46: Foreign Exchange Transactions through the Economy
(US$ Billion)

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

The average turnover at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) increased
by 8.75 per cent to US$459.04 million, compared with US$422.09 million in
Q12025, reflecting increased trading activities in the market, as the foreign
exchange market reforms continued to boost confidence in the market.
Figure 47: Turnover in the NFEM
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Average Turnover


Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Per cent
US$ Million
Average Turnover (LHS)
Rate of Turnover (RHS)

51 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025

2.4.7
Exchange Rate Movement
The average exchange rate of the naira per US dollar at the NFEM was
₦1,581.06/US$, compared with ₦1,521.56/US$ in Q12025. This represented a
3.76 per cent depreciation in the value of the naira during the review period.

In Q22025, the Russian ruble and South African rand appreciated by 16.13 and
1.10 per cent, respectively. The Chinese renminbi also strengthened by 0.49 per
cent, relative to the preceding quarter. Appreciation in the ruble was due, mainly,
to tight capital controls and attractive yields. Improved trade surplus supported
the rand's appreciation, while the renminbi benefited from increased exports.
Figure 48: Selected EMEs Currency Values to the US dollar

Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters

Table 13: Selected EMEs Currency Rates to the US dollar
Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria & Reuters


-15
-10
-5

Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q12025
Q22025
Depreciation/Appreciation
Chinese RMB
Nigerian naira
South African rand
Russian ruble
Period
Chinese
RMB/US$
Nigerian
naira/US$
South
African
rand/US$
Russian
ruble/US$
Q22024

Q12025

Q22025

Average Exchange
Rate
Emerging Market
Currencies

52 | P a g e
CBN ECONOMIC REPORT, SECOND QUARTER 2025


3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1
Global Outlook
The global economy is expected to slow in 2025 due to trade-related distortions.
Growth is projected at 3.00 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.30 per cent in 2024,
reflecting the front-loading of tariffs and weaker US dollar. In AEs growth could
slow to 1.50 per cent from 1.80 per cent, predicated on tariff-related uncertainties
and cooling domestic demand in the US, as well as currency appreciation,
offsetting gains from easing financial conditions in other AEs. Similarly, growth in
EMDEs is expected to slow to 4.10 per cent in 2025 from 4.30 per cent in 2024,
driven by trade-related distortions in China, India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
Global price pressures are anticipated to ease further, as demand cools, energy
prices ease, and supply chains continue to normalise. Thus, inflation is projected
to fall to 4.20 per cent in 2025, from 5.80 per cent in 2024.
3.2
Domestic Outlook
The domestic economy is expected to remain robust and resilient in the medium
term. The outlook is predicated on the continued implementation of fiscal and
structural reforms in the oil sector and foreign exchange market. The reforms are
expected to bolster macroeconomic stability, improve investor confidence, and
support domestic production. Improved security in oil-producing regions is
expected to sustain higher crude oil output, while foreign exchange reforms are
projected to continue to attract capital, further strengthening Nigeria’s external
position. Nevertheless, downside risks to the outlook include heightened security
concerns, increased demand pressures in the foreign exchange market, and rising
production costs, which could weigh on overall growth.
Nigeria's inflation is expected to moderate further in Q32025. The decline is
predicated on the lagged effect of the Bank’s contractionary policy stance,
sustained FX market stability, base effects, and enhanced security in key
agricultural regions. However, several factors such as expansionary money supply,
higher PMS and electricity prices, import tariffs, and worsening insecurity in foodproducing areas could pose risks to the outlook.