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BANK OF GHANA
MONETARY POLICY REPORT


July 2025
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The Monetary Policy Report highlights the economic and financial sector assessments that the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) considered prior to the policy decision during the 125th meeting held in July 2025.
Monetary Policy Objective in Ghana
The primary objective of the Bank of Ghana is to ensure stability in the general level of prices which has been
defined as maintaining inflation over the medium term, within a band of 8± 2 percent. Without limiting the
primary objective, the Bank is also expected to support the general economic policy of the government, promote
economic growth and development, foster the effective and efficient operation of the banking and credit system;
and contribute to the promotion and maintenance of financial stability.

Monetary Policy Strategy
To achieve the objective of price stability, Bank of Ghana was granted operational independence to use whichever
policy tools it sees appropriate to stabilise inflation around the target band. The Bank of Ghana’s framework for
conducting monetary policy is Inflation Targeting (IT), in which the central bank uses the Monetary Policy Rate
(MPR) as the primary policy tool to set the monetary policy stance and anchor inflation expectations in the
economy.

The MPC Process
The MPC is a statutorily constituted body established by the Bank of Ghana (Amendment) Act, Act 2016 (Act 918)
to formulate monetary policy. The MPC consists of seven members – five from the Bank of Ghana (including the
Governor who is the Chairman) and two external members appointed by the Board of the Bank. The MPC meeting
dates are determined at the beginning of each year. The MPC meets bi-monthly to assess economic conditions
and risks to the inflation outlook, after which a policy decision is made on positioning the MPR. Each decision
signals a monetary policy stance of tightening (increase), easing (decrease) or no change (stay put). The policy
decision is arrived at by consensus with each member stating reasons underlying a preferred MPR decision.
Subsequently, the decision is announced at a press conference held after each MPC meeting and a press release
issued to financial markets and the public.

©Research Department, Bank of Ghana MPC Report – July 2025
www.bog.gov.gh

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Table of Contents


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Overview


The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, due to the erection of substantial
barriers to trade, especially tariffs proposed by the U.S. This has contributed to raising policy
uncertainty, which has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence and is set to hold back
trade and investment, while tightening financial conditions. The global disinflation process has stalled
somewhat, prompting more restrictive monetary policy stances and dampening growth prospects.

On the domestic front, the Bank’s high frequency real sector indicators point to a sustained
pickup in economic activity. The updated Composite Index of Economic Activity recorded an annual
growth of 4.4 percent in May 2025, compared to a growth of 3.4 percent for the corresponding period
of 2024. This development was mainly driven by improvements in international trade activities,
consumption of goods and services by households and firms, construction activities, and tourist arrivals.

Headline inflation has declined consecutively in the first six months of the year. Between December
2024 and June 2025, it fell by 10.1 percentage points to 13.7 percent. It has been driven by both food
and non-food inflation. The decline has been broad-based, driven by tight monetary policy and a sharp
appreciation of the domestic currency.

The external sector has continued to perform strongly, with a record provisional current account
surplus of US$3.4 billion in the first half of 2025. This has been driven mainly by increased export
earnings from gold and cocoa. The current account surplus, together with a surplus in the capital
account, amounted to US$3.5 billion, putting the country in a net lending position with the rest of the
world. The strong external performance resulted in a significant build-up in international reserves.

The cedi has remained relatively stable despite rising global uncertainty. This performance has
been driven by a range of factors, including the tight monetary policy stance, BoG’s support to the
market, positive market sentiments from a ratings upgrade, continuous reserve build-up from exports,
remittances, and IMF inflows.

The monetary and financial sector was stable during the period under review. Growth in monetary
aggregates remained subdued, reflecting tight monetary conditions consistent with policy efforts to
sustain the disinflation process. There was significant build-up in Net Foreign Assets (NFA) but the
effect was contained through sterilization efforts. Credit slowed during the period under review. Year
on year, money market rates broadly trended downwards at the short end of the primary market while
interest rates on longer-dated instruments remained stable. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI)
recorded significant gains relative to the corresponding period last year. This was underpinned by
improved investor appetite, driven by significant recovery in the profitability of listed financial
institutions and improved liquidity in that segment of the market.

The banking sector performed strongly in the first six months of 2025. The sector recorded
increased profitability levels than for the same period a year earlier, mainly driven by growth in assets
and deposits. The Financial Soundness Indicators remained healthy, recording improvements in
solvency, efficiency and asset quality indicators in June 2025 relative to June 2024; however, liquidity
indicators moderated. The industry’s non-performing loans (NPL) ratio also improved on account of a
larger growth in loans and advances than in the NPL stock.

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1. Global Economic Developments

1.0 Highlights
The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, amid the erection of substantial barriers to
trade, especially by the U.S. The global disinflation process has stalled somewhat, and headline
inflation has remained stickier downwards than anticipated in some countries. Financial conditions
remain restrictive, reflecting still high policy rates and long-term bond yields amid rising uncertainty.
In the local forex market, the Ghana cedi maintained its stability, supported by policy and a strong
reserves build-up.

1.1 Global Growth Developments
The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging due to a significant increase in trade barriers,
contributing to policy uncertainty. Rising global uncertainty has negatively impacted business and
consumer confidence and is set to hold back trade and investment, while tightening financial conditions.
Against this backdrop, global growth projections have been downgraded from 3.3 percent in 2024 to
3.0 percent in 2025. The downgrades are broad-based, with growth in the U.S. and China expected to
moderate much more sharply than their peers amid the tariff wars. Activity in the global economy will
be largely supported by growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Risks to the outlook for growth are tilted to the downside. Growth could be hit by further bilateral tariff
actions and countermeasures. This will prolong economic and trade policy uncertainty, deteriorating
consumer and business confidence. Meanwhile, the on-going trade measures could elevate downward
pressures on household and business spending. Also, headline inflation may remain stickier downwards
than anticipated, prompting more restrictive monetary policy stances and dampening growth prospects.
The uncertainty about how central banks will navigate the difficult trade-offs they face amid tariffs
could trigger a disruptive repricing of risky assets, sharp tightening of financial conditions, and
appreciation of the dollar.

Table 1.1: Overview of the WEO Projections

Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
(Percent change)

World
3.3
3.0
3.1
Advanced Economies
1.8
1.5
1.6
United States
2.8
1.9
2.0
Euro Area
0.9
1.0
1.2
Germany
–0.2
0.1
0.9
France
1.1
0.6
1.0
Italy
0.7
0.5
0.8
Spain
3.2
2.5
1.8
Japan
0.2
0.7
0.5
United Kingdom
1.1
1.2
1.4
Canada
1.6
1.6
1.9
Other Advanced Economies
2.2
1.6
2.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
4.3
4.1
4.0
China
5.0
4.8
4.2
India
6.5
6.4
6.4
Russia
4.3
0.9
1.0
Brazil
3.4
2.3
2.1
Mexico
1.4
0.2
1.4
Sub-Saharan Africa
4.0
4.0
4.3
Nigeria
3.4
3.4
3.2
South Africa
0.5
1.0
1.3
Ghana
5.7
4.0
4.8
Source: IMF, WEO July.
Projections

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1.2 Global Price Developments
Headline inflation has remained stickier downwards than anticipated in some countries, with inflation
projected to remain above most central bank’s target in 2025. The FAO food price index picked up in
June 2025 due to supply constraints emanating from climate related shocks. Pressures from food prices
were, however, partially offset by a decline in oil prices due to increased supply from non-OPEC
countries amid reduced global demand. Core inflation remained elevated due to persistence in services
inflation and a resurgence in core goods inflation. Reflecting the persistence in inflation, price
expectations have been revised up for 2025 and 2026; however, expectations are expected to return to
target in 2027.

In the outlook, global headline inflation is expected to decline, but this outcome is subject to high
uncertainty. On the downside, the decline in oil prices in preceding months is expected to be sustained
in the near term, with oil prices projected by the IMF to close the year at $66.94 per barrel. In addition,
the cooling of the labour markets will reduce wage growth pressures and support the disinflation
process. However, potential tariff increases may drive up trade costs and cause prices to increase in
levying countries. Also, increasing food prices and the persistence of core inflation remain an upside
risk to prices.

Figure 1.1: Headline Inflation in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

Source: Bank of Gana, Trading Economics


1.3 Global Financial Markets Developments
Global financial conditions remain restrictive, reflecting still-high policy rates and long-term bond
yields amid rising uncertainty. Major central banks have adopted a cautious stance in their monetary
policy decisions. The Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan have maintained policy rates at
current levels, due to elevated uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions. Also, long-term bond yields
remain high, driven by trade policy uncertainty. However, equity markets continue to rally, reflecting
cooling tariff fears and stronger earnings. In addition, portfolio flows to EMDEs rebounded in June
2025, amid search for higher yields.

In the outlook, financial conditions will remain tight in the near term, reflecting the persistence in
services and good inflation. Also, higher policy rates amid heightened uncertainty and rising long term
bond yields will keep financing conditions tighter for longer. Rising economic policy uncertainty amid

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trade barriers could trigger a disruptive repricing of risky assets while putting downward pressure on
EM currencies.


Table 1.2: Monetary Policy Stance of Selected Central Banks

Source: Growth Rate (World Bank); Debt/GDP (IMF) Policy Rates (Trading Economics)

1.4 Currency Markets
On the international currency market, the U.S. dollar has trended down since January 2025 due to
Donald Trump’s trade policies, expected weakness in the U.S. economy, and a recovery in the Euro
Area. The dollar's recent rally was fuelled by optimism over U.S.-China tariff agreements and the fading
of tariff fears. Subdued performance of the dollar has provided some support to EMDE currencies in
the review period.

On the domestic currency market, the cedi remained relatively stable despite rising global uncertainty.
The performance of the currency was supported by the tight monetary policy stance, BoG’s support to
the market, positive market sentiments from a ratings upgrade, continuous reserve build-up from
exports, remittances and the IMF inflows. The cedi, however, experienced some demand pressures from
corporate, commerce and the energy sectors as well as bond sales by foreign investors. In the outlook,
the cedi’s performance will depend on continued fiscal consolidation, the strength of the U.S. dollar,
the level of reserves build-up, and BoG market support. In the interbank market, the cedi appreciated
by 42.6 percent, 30.3 percent, and 25.6 percent against the dollar, the pound, and the euro, respectively,
on a year-to-date basis. This is against a depreciation of 18.6 percent, 17.9 percent, and 16.0 percent,
against the dollar, the pound, and the euro, respectively, during the same period in 2024. However, the
cedi was more volatile during the first 142 transaction days in 2025 compared to other years.


Country
Policy rate -
Previous (%)
Policy Rate
Current (%)
Forecast
Inflation
May, 2025
Inflation
June, 2025
Real rate Infl Target
Overall
Fiscal
Deficit
(2024,%
of GDP)
GDP
Growth
(Dec.2024)
Gross
Debt/GDP(
2024,%)
YTD
Depr/Appr
22nd July

U.S

Euro Area


0.15
< 2%

UK
4.25
4.25


Japan

Russia


India


4±2%

Brazil
14.75

5.32
5.35
9.65
4.5±1.5%

Turkey


5±2%
-5.2
3.2

-12.52
Malaysia


Indonesia

3.5% ± 1%
-2.3

40.2
-1.28
Chile


3±1%

Ghana

18.4
13.7
14.3
8±2%

South Africa


Nigeria

Kenya


Zambia


114.9
20.57
Morocco


12.61
Angola

Egypt


7± 2%

Source: Growth rate(World Bank); Debt/GDP (IMF)
Policy Rates (Trading Economics), YTD depreciation/appreciation is from Bloomberg

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Table 1.3: Interbank Exchange Rates

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

The cedi appreciated by 21.8 percent, and 29.0 percent, respectively, in trade weighted terms and forex
transaction weighted terms on a year-to-date basis in June 2025, reversing the depreciation of 19.9
percent and 22.5 percent, respectively, for the same period in 2024.


Table 1.4: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

In real bilateral terms, the cedi appreciated by 30.8 percent, 23.9 percent, and 21.7 percent, against the
dollar, the pound, and the euro, respectively, on a year-to-date basis in June 2025. Comparatively, over
the same period in 2024, the cedi had experienced a depreciation of 11.4 percent, 9.5 percent, and 7.7
percent, respectively against the dollar, the pound, and the euro.


Exchange Rate Movements
US$/GHC*
Monthly
depreciation/a
ppreciation
Year-to-Date
depreciation/
appreciation
GBP/GHC*
Monthly
depreciation/a
ppreciation
Year-to-Date
depreciation/
appreciation
Euro/GHC*
Monthly
depreciation/
appreciation
Year-to-Date
depreciation/a
ppreciation

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

Month
2021=100
Monthly CHG(%)
Year-to-Date (%)
FXTWI
TWI
FXTWI
TWI FXTWI
TWI

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24


Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25


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Table 1.5: Real Bilateral Exchange Rate

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

The cedi appreciated by 23.2 percent, and 30.0 percent, in real trade weighted terms, and real forex
transaction weighted terms, on a year-to-date basis in June 2025. This compares with depreciations of
8.4 percent, and 11.1 percent, respectively, in real trade weighted terms and forex transaction weighted
terms for the same period in 2024.


Table 1.6: Real Effective Exchange Rate for Major Trade Partners

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


3.0 Global Economic Outlook and Risks
The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, amid substantial trade barriers. Headline
inflation has remained stickier than anticipated in some countries. Financial conditions remain
restrictive, reflecting still high policy rates and long-term bond yields. Risks to the outlook are tilted to
the downside. Growth could be hit by further bilateral tariff actions and retaliatory actions.
Consequently, rising trade costs may add to inflationary pressures. These pressures may force central
banks to maintain restrictive policy stances for a while. As a result, financial conditions may remain
tight in the near term.

RER Index (Jan.2021=100) MONTHLY CHANGE (Index) Year-to-Date (%)
Month
EUR
GBP
USD
EUR
GBP
USD
EUR
GBP
USD

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24


Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Month
INDEX (2021=100)
MONTHLY CHG
Year-to-Date (%)
RFXTWI
RTWI
RFXTWI
RTWI
RFXTWI
RTWI

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24


Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

RTWI and FXRTWI

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2. External Sector Developments

2.0 Highlights
The external sector maintained a strong performance in the first half of the year, posting a record
current account surplus of US$3.44 billion, driven by increased gold export earnings and improved
cocoa receipts. The strong current account surplus, coupled with the surplus in the capital account,
contributed to a significant build-up in international reserves, reaching a gross level of US$11.12
billion, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, in the first half of 2025.


2.1 Commodity Price Trends
On the international commodities market, prices of Ghana’s major export commodities traded mixed.
Cocoa futures averaged US$9,155.10 per tonne in June 2025, recording a 5.4 percent fall compared to
the previous month, driven mainly by expectation of larger harvest in the West Africa cocoa growing
region. Compared with the same period last year, cocoa prices recorded a marginal increase of 1.5
percent primarily due to the adverse weather conditions last year which have offset the softening in
prices from the improved production this year.

On the other hand, crude oil prices increased by 9.6 percent to close at an average price of US$69.84
per barrel in June 2025, mainly due to fears of curtailed oil supplies from the heightened security risks
emanating from tensions between Israel and Iran. Compared to a year earlier, crude oil prices slumped
by 15.9 percent, mainly due to weak demand from China.

Gold prices continued to soar, reaching a record average price of US$3,351.59 per fine ounce in June
2025, reflecting an increase of 1.9 percent over the previous month. The surge in gold prices was driven
by the geopolitical risks and the economic uncertainty associated with the ongoing trade war, which
fueled investor demand for safe-haven assets. Relative to the same period last year, gold prices spiked
by 44.1 percent in June 2025, from US$2,325.34 in June 2024.

2.1.1 Commodity Price Index
The overall weighted average price index of the three major export commodities of Ghana (cocoa, gold,
and crude oil) increased marginally in June 2025 to 235.85, from 235.11 in the previous month,
representing an uptick of 0.3 percent. The increase was on account of increases in both the gold and
crude oil sub-indices, which went up by 1.9 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively, while the cocoa subindex softened by 5.4 percent during the period under review. On a year-on-year basis, the composite
commodity price index increased by 19.9 percent, stemming from the strong 44.1 percent increase in
the gold price sub-index and a 1.5 percent increase in the cocoa sub-index. The crude oil price subindex, however, showed a decline of 15.9 percent during the review period.

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2.2 Trade Balance
Trade balance for the first half of the year showed a significant surplus of US$5.57 billion, representing
a sharp increase over the US$1.37 billion recorded in the comparative period in 2024. The improved
trade surplus resulted from a larger increase in exports than imports.

The value of exports surged to US$13.80 billion in June 2025, from US$8.87 billion in the same period
in 2024, driven mainly by gold exports and supported by cocoa exports. The value of gold exports went
up by 80.2 percent to US$8.39 billion, from US$4.66 billion in June 2024, on account of increases in
both the volume and price of gold. The volume of gold exports increased by 26.3 percent to 2.81 million
fine ounces, on the back of increased output from the responsible and regulated small-scale gold mines
following the operationalization of GoldBod, together with the sustained output of the large-scale
mines. The average price for gold also increased by 42.6 percent to US$2,980.90 per fine ounce in June
2025, compared to US$2,090.40 in June 2024, largely due to global economic uncertainty and
geopolitical tensions. Receipts from cocoa exports, both beans and products, increased sharply to
US$2.17 billion during the first half of 2025, from US$0.76 billion in the same period in 2024, driven
by both higher volumes of exports and prices. Improved weather conditions supported the increased
cocoa production during the period.

Crude oil exports, however, dropped by 31.1 percent to US$1.36 billion in the first half of the year due
to reduced volumes of exports and decline in prices. The volume of crude oil exports fell by 20.5 percent
to 18.94 million barrels as of June 2025, from 23.83 million barrels during the same period last year.
This was partly on account of a shut down in the Jubilee field for routine maintenance works during the
first quarter of the year. The average price of crude oil for the period showed a decline of 13.3 percent
to US$72.1 per barrel, from US$83.1 per barrel in June 2024. Prices were low due to weak global
demand, particularly from China, and OPEC’s decision to ramp up production. Other exports, including
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Source: BoG Staff Compilation

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non-traditional exports, increased by 27.9 percent to US$1.88 billion, from US$1.47 billion during the
same review period.

Total imports, on the other hand, recorded an increase of 9.7 percent to US$8.23 billion during the first
half of 2025, from US$7.50 billion in the corresponding period of 2024, on account of increases in both
oil and non-oil imports. Oil imports increased by 6.6 percent to US$2.59 billion in June 2025 from
US$2.42 billion in June 2024, while non-oil imports increased to US$5.64 billion from US$5.07 billion
during the same reference period.

2.3 Current Account
The current account recorded an impressive surplus of US$3.44 billion in the first half of 2025,
representing a sharp increase over the surplus of US$283.11 million recorded during the same period
in 2024. The higher current account surplus came on the back of higher cocoa and gold receipts. Net
payment for services, however, increased to US$2.64 billion, driven largely by freight and insurance,
trade-related services, financial services and travel. Income payments to non-residents amounted to
US$2.38 billion on a net basis, driven by private sector payments and interest payments on government
external debt. Private remittance flows increased by 8.2 percent to US$3.93 billion in June 2025 from
US$3.63 billion during the same time in 2024.

2.4 Capital and Financial Accounts
The capital account recorded net transfers of US$50.5 million, reflecting mainly project grants. The
sum of the surpluses in the current and capital accounts amounted to US$3.49 billion, putting the
country in a net lending position with the rest of the world. Consequently, there was net acquisition of
financial assets in the financial account amounting to US$3.79 billion, significantly higher than the
US$438.4 million recorded in the same period of 2024. Out of this, other investments were US$2.4
billion, largely driven by increased currency and deposits in the nostro accounts of commercial banks
as well as trade credit and advances. The economy attracted net direct investments of US$921.1 million
in June 2025 from US$828.2 million in June 2024 and lower net portfolio inflows of US$55.2 million,
from US$546.2 million during the same review period. Reserve assets of the Bank of Ghana improved
significantly to US$2.2 billion from US$588.5 million.

2.5 International Reserves
At the end of June 2025, the stock of Gross International Reserves (GIR) stood at US$11.12 billion,
enough to provide cover for 4.8 months of import of goods and services. This compares with the endDecember 2024 GIR of US$8.98 billion (equivalent to 4 months of imports cover). The program Net
International Reserves (NIR) recorded a build-up of US$1.65 billion to US$3.53 billion in June 2025,
against a target buildup of US$493 million for the same period.

2.6 External Sector Outlook
Overall, the external sector outlook remains broadly positive, notwithstanding the increasingly
challenging global economy and geopolitical tensions. The prices of Ghana’s major export commodities
prices are forecast to remain largely favourable. Gold prices are expected to remain above $3,000 per
fine ounce in the second half of the year, while the cocoa market remains upbeat about a boost in
Ghana’s crop in the upcoming season if weather patterns remain favourable. Crude oil prices are
projected to average lower than $70 per barrel, on the back of low demand, although Brent may find
support from risk premia of the continuous geopolitical conflicts. These forecasts will bode well for the
performance of the external sector in the next half of the year. The robust external sector outlook

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coupled with the improved macroeconomic environment are expected to provide adequate support to
sustain the macroeconomic gains and keep the external sector on a strong footing moving forward.

Table 2.1: Trade Balance (US$ million)

Source: Bank of Ghana

Table 1

Abs Y/Y
Rel Y/Y
Jan - Jun
Jan - Jun
Jan - Jun
Chg
Chg
Trade Balance

Trade Bal (% GDP)
1.6
1.6
6.4
Total Exports

Gold ( $'M)

Volume (fine ounces)

Unit Price ($/fine ounce)

Cocoa Beans ( $'M)

Volume (tonnes)

Unit Price ($/tonne)

Cocoa Products ( $'M)

Volume (tonnes)

Unit Price ($/tonne)

Crude Oil ( $'M)

Volume (barrels)

Unit Price ($/bbl)

Other Exports

o/w: Non-Tradional Exports

Total Import

Non-Oil

Oil and Gas

of which: Products

Gas

Crude Oil


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3. Real Sector Developments

3.0 Highlights
Ghana's economy demonstrated robust growth in the first quarter of 2025. Beyond the first quarter, the
latest high frequency real sector indicators point to a sustained pickup in economic activity in May
2025. Consumer and business confidence also increased significantly in line with improving
macroeconomic conditions.

3.1 Economic Growth
The latest data from the Ghana Statistical Service showed that real GDP grew by 5.3 percent, compared
with 4.9 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. A key factor of the strong growth
outturn was the non-oil sector. Non-oil GDP growth was 6.8 percent, compared with 4.3 percent in the
same period of 2024. This indicates strong underlying momentum in the broader economy and a
diversification away from reliance on oil. The observed growth outturn was driven by the agricultural
and services sectors, which grew by 6.6 percent, and 5.9 percent, respectively.

Figure 3.1: Oil and Non-oil GDP Growth

Source: GSS

3.2 Trends in Real Sector Indicators

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, proxied by domestic VAT collections and retail sales, posted a positive
performance in May 2025, compared with the corresponding period in 2024. Domestic VAT collections
increased by 30.1 percent on a year-on-year basis to GH¢1,772.60 million, from GH¢1,362.13 million.
Cumulatively, total domestic VAT for the first five months of 2025 went up by 33.6 percent to
GH¢8,313.95 million, compared with GH¢6,221.21 million for the corresponding period of last year.

Retail sales increased by 38.6 percent (year-on-year) to GH¢277.62 million in May 2025, from
GH¢200.27 million recorded in the same period in 2024. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales
improved by 4.6 percent in May 2025, from GH¢265.46 million in the preceding month. In cumulative
terms, retail sales for the first five months of 2025 went up by 35.7 percent.

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Manufacturing Activities
Activities in the manufacturing sub-sector, gauged by trends in the collection of direct taxes and private
sector workers’ contributions to the Social Security and National Insurance Trust (SSNIT) Pension
Scheme (Tier-1), improved in May 2025. Total direct taxes collected increased by 34.0 percent (yearon-year) to GH¢5,503.67 million in May 2025, relative to GH¢4,107.22 million recorded in a similar
period in 2024. Cumulatively, total direct taxes collected for the first five months of 2025 went up by
47.7 percent to GH¢32,772.67 million, from GH¢22,191.12 million for the same period in 2024. In
terms of contributions of the various sub-tax categories, income tax (PAYE and self-employed)
accounted for 49.4 percent, corporate tax accounted for 34.5 percent, while “Other Tax Sources”
contributed 16.1 percent.

Total private sector workers’ contribution to the SSNIT Pension Scheme (Tier-1) increased by 10.7
percent in year-on-year terms to GH¢521.33 million in May 2025, from GH¢470.92 million collected
during the corresponding period in 2024. Cumulatively, for the first five months of 2025, the
contribution grew by 24.6 percent to GH¢2,458.61 million, relative to GH¢1,973.34 million recorded
in the same period in 2024.

Construction Sector Activities
Activity in the construction sub-sector, proxied by the volume of cement sales, improved by 8.5 percent
(year-on-year) in May 2025 to 255,063.29 tonnes, up from 235,050.55 tonnes recorded a year ago.
However, on a month-on-month basis, total cement sales dipped by 3.2 percent in May 2025 compared
with the 263,623.46 tonnes recorded in April 2025. Cumulatively, cement sales for the first five months
of 2025 improved by 8.2 percent to 1,225,395.86 tonnes, from 1,132,654.32 tonnes for the same period
of 2024. The relative improvement in total cement sales, year-on-year, was due to an uptick in
construction activities during the review period.

Vehicle Registration
Transport sector activities, gauged by new vehicle registrations by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing
Authority (DVLA), improved by 24.5 percent to 20,202 in May 2025, from 16,220 vehicles registered
during the corresponding period of 2024. Cumulatively, vehicles registered by the DVLA within the
first five months of 2025 increased by 29.4 percent to 108,542 from 83,878 recorded a year ago.

Industrial Consumption of Electricity
Industrial consumption of electricity declined by 3.6 percent in May 2025 to 285.05 gigawatts, as
against 295.71 gigawatts recorded for the corresponding period in 2024. In cumulative terms, electricity
consumed by industries for the first five months of 2025 remained largely unchanged at 1,430.96
gigawatts from 1,429.28 gigawatts for the corresponding period a year ago.

Passenger Arrivals
Passenger arrivals improved by 10.7 percent in year-on-year terms to 108,665 in May 2025, up from
98,205 arrivals recorded a year ago. Similarly, compared to April 2025, passenger arrivals went up by
11.0 percent. Cumulatively, for the first five months of 2025, there were 501,961 arrivals recorded at
the international airport and the land borders, compared with 497,048 for the corresponding period in
2024, representing a marginal growth of 1.0 percent.

PUBLIC
Ports and Harbours Activity
International trade at the country’s two main harbours (Tema and Takoradi), as measured by laden
container traffic for inbound and outbound containers, improved during the period under review. Total
container traffic increased by 32.6 percent, year-on-year, to 79,059 in May 2025, up from 59,639 for a
similar period in 2024. In cumulative terms, total container traffic for the first five months of 2025 went
up by 23.5 percent to 351,690 compared with 284,745 for the corresponding period of last year.


3.3 Labour Market Activity

Private Sector Pension Contributors
Total number of private sector SSNIT contributors, which partially gauges employment conditions,
improved marginally by 2.1 percent to 1,065,925 in May 2025, compared with 1,044,111 for the same
period in 2024. On a month-on-month basis, total number of private sector SSNIT contributors
remained largely unchanged from the 1,067,531 individuals recorded in April 2025.

Advertised Jobs
The number of jobs advertised in selected print and online media, which partially gauges labour demand
in the economy, decreased in June 2025 relative to what was observed in the corresponding period a
year ago. In total, 2,502 job adverts were recorded as compared with 2,968 for the same period in 2024,
indicating a decline of 15.7 percent (year-on-year). Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, the number
of job vacancies in June 2025 dipped by 18.4 percent from the 3,066 jobs advertised in May 2025.
Cumulatively, for the first half of 2025, the total number of advertised jobs went up by 7.7 percent to
18,604 from 17,278 recorded during the same period in 2024.

3.4 Composite Index of Economic Activity
The Bank’s real Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) recorded an annual growth of 4.4
percent in May 2025, compared to a growth of 3.4 percent for the corresponding period of 2024.
International trade activities, consumption of goods and services by households and firms, construction
activities and tourist arrivals contributed to the improvement in economic activity during the period.

3.5 Consumer and Business Surveys
The latest confidence surveys conducted in June 2025 showed significant improvement in both
consumer and business confidence. The Consumer Confidence Index markedly improved to 119.2 in
June 2025, the highest recorded level of confidence, from 103.6 in April 2025. This was on account of
substantial easing of inflationary pressures, which in turn led to strong optimism about future economic
conditions. The Business Confidence Index also increased to 105.5 from 102.2 in the same comparative
period as firms met their short-term targets and expressed positive sentiments about company and
industry prospects, in line with improving macroeconomic conditions. Results from the confidence
surveys were aligned with the observed trend in Ghana’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which
also signalled an improvement in business conditions in June 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in May
2025. The PMI remained above the 50.0 no-change mark at 51.3 in June 2025, down from 53.6 in the
previous month.

PUBLIC

Figure 3.1: High Frequency Economic Indicators


Sources: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Domestic VAT collections and retail sales improved in May 2025 compared
to April 2025...
...Labour hiring conditions, proxied by the number of private sector
workers contributing to SSNIT, remained largely unchanged...
...Labour market conditions improved in May 2025 relative to April 2025...
...Construction activities, proxied by cement sales, declined in May 2025
compared to April 2025...
...Port activity increased in May 2025 compared to the previous month...
...Tourist arrivals increased in May 2025 compared to April 2025...

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Cement Sales

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Thousands
Port Activity (Container Traffic)

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Thousands
Tourist Arrivals

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Thousands
Number of Private Sector Contributors to SSNIT
Thousands, tons

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Million, GHC
Million, GHC
Retail Sales and Domestic VAT collection
Retail Sales, Left
Domestic VAT

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Million GHC
SSNIT Contributions from Private Sector
Panel 1:
Ghana's Leading Indicators of Economic Activity

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Commercial banks' credit to the private sector declined in May 2025 relative
to the pevious month...
...Industrial activity, proxied by industrial consumption of electricity,
remained largely unchanged...
...Exports and Imports increased in May 2025 compared to April 2025...

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Million, USD
Imports
Exports
Imports and Exports

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
GWh
Industrial Consumption of Electricity

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Billion, GHC
DMB's Credit to Private Sector
-6
-4
-2

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Percent, y-o-y
Real CIEA
-8
-4

May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Percent, y-o-y
Cement Sales (Tons)
Port Activity
SSNIT Contr by Pte Sector
Exports
Industrial Cons of Electricity
DMB's Credit to Pte Sector
Imports
Tourist Arrivals
Dom VAT
Real CIEA growth (%)
Contribution to Real CIEA growth

Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Job Adverts
Panel 2:
Ghana's Leading Indicators of Economic Activity
...On a year-on-year basis, the real CIEA grew by 4.4 percent in May 2025,
compared with a growth of 3.4 percent in May 2024...
...The growth in the real CIEA was mainly driven by a pick-up in Port Activity,
Exports, Imports, Domestic VAT, Cement Sales and Tourist Arrivals...
...Demand for labour, proxied by the number of job adverts (in print and
online media), decreased in June 2025...
Number of advertised jobs

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana, Various Stakeholders
...Business Confidence improved as firms met their short-term targets and
expressed positive sentiments about company and industry prospects in line
with improving macroeconomic conditions...
...Vehicle registration increased in May 2025 compared to the month before...
...Consumer Confidence improved on account of easing inflationary
pressures and optimism about future economic conditions...


May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Vehicle Registration
105.5

Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Index
Business Confidence Index
119.2

Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Index
Consumer Confidence Index

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Billion, GHC
Domestic taxes, Direct
...Domestic tax collection decreased in May 2025 compared to April 2025...

2023Q3
2023Q4
2024Q1
2024Q2
2024Q3
2024Q4
2025Q1
Percent
Agricuture
Industry
Services
Annual sectoral real GDP growth rate, y/y

2023Q3
2023Q4
2024Q1
2024Q2
2024Q3
2024Q4
2025Q1
Percent
Oil GDP
Non-Oil GDP
Annual real GDP growth rate, y/y
...Real Oil and Non-Oil GDP grew by 5.3 percent and 6.8 percent respectively
in 2025Q1, compared with growth rates of 4.9 percent and 4.3 percent
respectively in 2024Q1...
...The Agriculture and Services sectors drove growth in 2025Q1, recording growth
rates of 6.6 percent and 5.9 percent respectively, relative to growth rates of 2.4
percent and 4.7 percent in 2024Q1 respectively...
Panel 3:
Ghana's Leading Indicators of Economic Activity
Number of vehicles

PUBLIC
4. Monetary and Financial Developments

4.0 Highlights
Growth in monetary aggregates remained subdued during the first half of the year, reflecting tight
monetary conditions consistent with policy efforts to sustain the disinflation process. There was
significant build-up in Net Foreign Assets (NFA), reflecting inflows from the domestic gold purchase
programme, remittances, forex purchases from mining firms, and multilateral disbursements. This
liquidity build-up was, however, contained through sterilization efforts during the period. Credit slowed
during the period under review, reflecting, among others, banks preference for Bank of Ghana bills,
which had higher returns. Money market rates broadly trended downwards at the short-end of the
primary market, on year-on-year basis, while interest rates on longer-dated instruments remained
stable. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) recorded significant gains, year-on-year, in June 2025
relative to the corresponding period last year. The impressive performance of the GSE-CI was
underpinned by improved investor appetite, driven by significant recovery in the profitability of listed
financial institutions and improved liquidity on that segment of the market.

4.1 Developments in Monetary Aggregates

Money Supply
Developments in monetary aggregates for June 2025 showed a deceleration in the pace of growth in
broad money supply (M2+), driven by contractions in both the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) and the Net
Foreign Assets (NFA). Annual growth in M2+ declined to 15.64 percent in June 2025, relative to 34.07
percent in the corresponding period of 2024. The contribution of NFA to the growth in M2+ decreased
to 9.50 percent from 23.11 percent, mainly due to the appreciation of the domestic currency. Similarly,
the contribution of NDA to the growth in M2+ decreased to 6.14 percent from 10.96 percent over the
same comparative period, induced by the tight monetary policy stance and effective liquidity
management.


Sources: Bank of Ghana


per cent
Figure 4.1a: M2+ Growth and its Sources (%
contributions)
Net Foreign Assets
NDA
Total Liquidity (M2+)

per cent
Figure 4.1b: Banking Sector NDA and its Sources
(% contributions)
NCG
Claims on Priv. Sect. (Incl.
PE's)
BOG OMO Steril. Acc.
OIN

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana

Accordingly, the decline in the contribution of the NDA to the growth of M2+ was mainly driven by
contractions in the Net Claims on Government (NCG) and increased sterilization through the issuance
of BOG bills. This was moderated by increases in Claims on Private and Public Sector and expansion
in the Other Items (Net) (OIN).

Analysis of the components of M2+ showed that the moderation in the growth in M2+ reflected in
decreased growth in demand deposits, time deposits, and foreign currency deposits in June 2025 relative
to same period in 2024. Growth in saving deposits and currency with the public, however, increased
significantly over the same comparative period .

4.2 Reserve Money
Growth in Reserve Money (RM) moderated significantly in June 2025, mainly induced by a contraction
in the NDA, reflecting increased sterilization and decline in net claims on Government. Growth in the
NFA also declined considerably, largely on the back of delayed inflows from the Gold for Reserve
(G4R) Programme. Annual growth in reserve money declined to 1.95 percent in June 2025, from a
growth of 77.37 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The NDA of the Central Bank declined due to a contraction in Net Claims on Government (NCG) and
Claims on Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), as well as increased Open Market Operations (OMO). The
contribution of NDA to the growth in RM decreased to negative 29.32 percent in June 2025 compared
to 18.33 percent recorded in June 2024. Similarly, the contribution of the NFA to the growth in RM
decreased to 31.27 percent, relative to 59.04 percent over the same comparative period.


per cent
Figure 4.2: M2+ growth and its component (% contributions)
Curr.
Dem. Dep
Sav and Time Dep.
FCDs
Total Liquidity (M2+)

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana


4.3 Deposit Money Banks Credit Developments
Deposit Money Banks’ (DMBs’) total credit to the private sector and public institutions dipped to
GH¢4,685.30 million (5.55%) in June 2025 from GH¢11,353.44 million (15.53%) recorded in June
2024. The decrease in credit flows was largely due a decline in credit to the public sector. Credit flows
to the private sector declined to GH¢6,690.70 million (8.57%) in June 2025 from GH¢11,690.77 million
(17.61%) recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The decreased flow of credit to the private
sector was on the back of a shift to the purchase of both Government and Bank of Ghana securities by
the banks.
Private sector credit accounted for 95.05 percent of the flow in total outstanding credit in June 2025,
relative to 92.40 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The top five sectors with
significant share of credit flows are: services (76.53%); commerce and finance (17.65%); electricity,
gas and water (6.52%); manufacturing (4.55%); and agriculture, forestry and fisheries (4.12%) (Chart
4a). Outstanding credit to private sector at the end of June 2025 was GH¢84,752.43 million, compared
with GH¢78,061.73 million recorded in June 2024.
In real terms, however, private sector credit contracted by 4.48 percent relative to 4.18 percent
contraction, over the same comparative period. Growth in real private sector credit declined slightly
below its trend during the review period.


Per cent
Figure 4.3a: RM Growth and Contribution from NFA
and NDA
NDA
NFA

Figure 4.3b: BOG NDA and Its Sources (%
Contributions)
NCG
NC_DMBs
OMO Ster. A/c
OIN
NDA

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana

4.4 Money Market Developments
Developments in interest rates broadly showed downward trends at the short end of the primary market
on year-on-year basis, consistent with Government’s continued efforts to bring down rates in
preparation for issuances on the bonds market. Interest rates on longer-dated instruments, however,
remained stable. The 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bill rates decreased to 14.74 percent, 15.34
percent, and 15.76 percent, respectively, in June 2025, from 24.91 percent, 26.84 percent and 27.83
percent, respectively, in the corresponding period of 2024. Rates on the 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 6-year,
7-year, 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year bonds remained broadly stable due to the non-issuance of these
instruments during the review period.

The Interbank Weighted Average Rate (IWAR) decreased to 27.02 percent in June 2025 from 28.80
percent in June 2024. Similarly, the average lending rates of banks declined to 27.00 percent in June
2025 from 31.10 percent, recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, reflecting the pass-through
effect of declines in rates on the primary market.


Source: Bank of Ghana
Figure 4.4a: Sectoral Shares in Credit to the
Private sector (%)
Jun-24
Jun-25

Figure 4.4b: Growth in Real Private Sector Credit
(RGPSC) vs. Trend
RGPSC
Trend

Figure 4.5a: MPR, Interbank, T-bill Rates and
Inflation
MPR
91-Day T-bill
rate
Inter-Bank
rate
Inflation

Figure 4.5b: Yield Curve (YOY)
Jun-24
Jun-25

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana


4.5 Stock Market Developments
The Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSE-CI) increased to 6248.48 points in June 2025 from
3829.61 points recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. This translates into a year-on-year gain
of 63.16 percent in June 2025 compared to a growth of 36.38 percent in June 2024. The robust
performance of the GSE-CI is underpinned by improved investor appetite, driven by significant
recovery in the profitability of listed financial institutions and improved liquidity on that segment of the
market. The GSE-CI has been further boosted by the limited investment options on the domestic
markets on account of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP). The main sectors that
contributed to the gains recorded by the GSE-CI were the ETFund, distribution, agriculture, and finance
sectors.

The GSE-Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FSI) closed at 3376.01 points, reflecting a gain of 59.62 percent
compared to a gain of 25.01 percent, over the same comparative period. The gain in the GSE-FSI was
mainly on the back of improved profitability of listed financial institutions, following initial losses
induced by the impact of the DDEP.

Total market capitalisation of the GSE at the end of June 2025 was GH¢137.29 billion representing a
year-on-year growth of 61.33 percent (GH¢52.19 billion), compared with a growth of 21.15 percent
(GH¢14.86 billion) in June 2024. The increase in market capitalization was mainly driven by
appreciation in share prices, underpinned by renewed investor confidence, particularly in the ETFund,
distribution, agriculture, and finance sectors.

Table 4.1: Performance of Ghana Stock Exchange

Source: Ghana Stock Exchange and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

percent
Figure 4.6: Real Interest Rates and Inflation
Real MPR
Real 91 Day T-bill Rate
Real Interbank Rate
Real Lending Rate
Real Deposit Rate

PUBLIC


Source: Bank of Ghana


4.6 Conclusion
Growth in monetary aggregates was largely constrained in the first half of the year, underpinned by the
tight monetary policy stance and effective liquidity management. Growth in reserve money moderated
significantly in June 2025, mainly induced by a contraction in the NDA, reflecting increased
sterilization. Annual growth in credit to the private sector decreased in nominal terms, due to a shift in
banks preference to investments in Government and Bank of Ghana securities. In real terms credit to
private sector contracted marginally.

Money market rates broadly trended downwards at the short-end of the primary market, on year-onyear basis in preparation for future bond issuances; interest rates on longer-dated instruments, however,
remained stable. On the interbank market, the Interbank Weighted Average Rate (IWAR) decreased,
trading on the floor of the policy corridor. Similarly, the average lending rates of banks decreased,
reflecting pass-through effect of declines in the Government’s short-term rates.

The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) recorded increased year-on-year gain in June 2025 relative to the
corresponding period last year. The performance of the index was underpinned by improved investor
appetite, driven by significant recovery in the profitability of listed financial institutions and improved
liquidity on that segment of the market.

Figure 4.7a: GSE Composite Index

Figure 4.7b: GSE Financial Stocks Index

PUBLIC
5. Banking Sector Developments

5.0 Highlights
The banking sector posted a strong performance during the first six months of 2025, recording higher
profit than a year ago, on the back of growth in total assets and deposits. The Financial Soundness
Indicators (FSIs) remained healthy, with improved solvency, efficiency and asset quality indicators,
while liquidity indicators moderated. The industry’s Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio improved in
June 2025 on account of a higher growth in loans and advances relative to the growth in the NPL stock.
The outlook for the banking sector remains largely stable, dependent on banks’ adherence to
recapitalisation plans, the establishment of a strong corporate governance culture and enforcement of
strict credit underwriting standards.


5.1 Banks’ Balance Sheet
Total assets of the banking sector grew by 18.9 percent to GH¢384.3 billion as at June 2025, compared
with 33.3 percent in June 2024. The lower growth in assets was driven by a moderate growth in deposits
as well as the appreciation of the Ghana cedi. Foreign assets contracted by 32.2 percent in June 2025,
compared to a growth of 57.6 percent in June 2024, while domestic assets grew by 24.7 percent in June
2025, from 31.0 percent growth in June 2024. Subsequently, the share of foreign assets in total assets
decreased to 5.8 percent in June 2025 from 10.2 percent the prior year, while the share of domestic
assets rose to 94.2 percent from 89.8 percent during the same reference period.

Investments grew by 51.5 percent to GH¢162.3 billion in June 2025, from a growth of 19.2 percent in
June 2024, as banks recorded a significant growth in short-term instruments. Short-term bills surged
by 129.1 percent from a growth of 7.3 percent in June 2024. Long-term instruments (securities),
however, contracted by 0.1 percent in June 2025 from a growth of 28.6 percent in June 2024. The
developments in bills and securities culminated in an increased share of investments in total assets to
42.3 percent in June 2025 from 33.2 percent in June 2024.

Growth in gross loans and advances moderated to 6.1 percent in June 2025 relative to the 15.6 percent
growth recorded in June 2024. Gross loans and advances stood at GH¢89.7 billion in June 2025. Growth
in net loans and advances (gross loans adjusted for provisions and interest in suspense) also moderated
to 4.8 percent from 10.3 percent during the review period.

The growth in assets was funded by an increase in deposits and other funding sources. Deposits
remained the main source of funding for the banking sector, with a share of 72.9 percent of total assets
in June 2025, down from a share of 76.1 percent in June 2024. Deposits increased by 13.9 percent to
GH¢280.1 billion in June 2025, compared to the growth of 31.1 percent recorded in June 2024. The
foreign currency component of deposits contracted by 23.3 percent to GH¢62.3 billion in June 2025,
from a growth of 29.8 percent a year ago, and this was largely driven by the currency appreciation.
Borrowings, however, increased by 42.1 percent to GH¢33.0 billion in June 2025 from 44.4 percent
growth recorded in June 2024. The growth in borrowings in June 2025 was mainly driven by domestic
borrowing while foreign borrowing contracted further by 40.0 percent in June 2025 relative to a
contraction of 0.8 percent the previous year. On the domestic front, both short-term and long-term
borrowing grew significantly. In contrast both short-term and long-term foreign borrowings contracted
during the review period.

PUBLIC


Banks’ shareholders’ funds position (comprising paid-up capital and reserves) continued to improve on
account of a rebound in profits across the industry and recapitalization efforts of undercapitalized banks.
Total shareholders’ funds increased by 48.5 percent to GH¢48.0 billion as at end-June 2025, compared
to a growth of 44.9 percent recorded a year ago.


Source: Bank of Ghana

5.1.1 Asset and Liability Structure
The asset structure of the industry’s balance sheet in June 2025 reflected banks’ preference for
investments. Investments (comprising bills, securities, and equity) replaced cash and bank balances as
the largest component of total assets, with an increased share of 42.3 percent in June 2025, from 33.2
percent in June 2024, as banks rebalanced their portfolios in favour of higher returns on investments.
Cash and bank balances was the second largest component of banks’ assets as at June 2025, although
its share in total assets declined to 28.9 percent, from 35.8 percent in June 2024. Investments and cash
and bank balances together accounted for 71.2 percent of total assets in June 2025, compared to a share
of 69.0 percent in June 2024. Net loans and advances constituted the third-largest component of total
assets, recording a declined share of 19.0 percent, from 21.4 percent in June 2024. Non-earning assets
(fixed assets and other assets) in banks’ total assets recorded a marginal increase in share to 9.9 percent,
from 9.6 percent, during the review period.

On the liability side, the share of deposits in banks’ liabilities and shareholders’ funds declined to 72.9
percent in June 2025, from 76.1 percent in the corresponding period last year. The share of borrowings
rose during the period under review to 8.6 percent from 7.2 percent, reflecting the growth in total
borrowings during the period. The share of shareholders’ funds in banks’ liabilities and shareholders’
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Jun-24
Jun-25
TOTAL ASSETS
323,177.5

390,142.3

384,273.7

33.3

27.2

18.9

100.0

100.0

A. Foreign Assets
33,010.0

43,371.9

22,381.6

57.6

49.0

(32.2)

10.2

5.8

B. Domestic Assets
290,167.5

346,770.3

361,892.2

31.0

24.9

24.7

89.8

94.2

Investments
107,211.3

135,382.7

162,464.7

19.2

27.8

51.5

33.2

42.3

i. Bills
42,796.0

68,116.9

98,039.9

7.3

51.7

129.1

13.2

25.5

ii. Securities
64,078.7

66,849.0

64,008.4

28.6

10.0

(0.1)

19.8

16.7

Advances (Net)
69,104.7

74,559.5

72,443.7

10.3

18.7

4.8

21.4

18.9

of which Foreign Currency
24,333.5

21,562.0

17,004.3

10.4

(4.6)

(30.1)

7.5

4.4

Gross Advances
84,530.0

92,184.8

89,702.9

15.6

18.3

6.1

26.2

23.3

Other Assets
21,961.5

26,133.4

27,494.6

49.3

23.1

25.2

6.8

7.2

Fixed Assets
8,582.7

9,787.5

9,910.3

15.1

16.5

15.5

2.7

2.6

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
323,177.5

390,142.3

384,273.7

33.3

27.2

18.9

100.0

100.0

Total Deposits
245,880.2

289,545.2

280,118.8

31.1

22.6

13.9

76.1

72.9

of which Foreign Currency
81,228.3

85,409.6

62,296.9

29.8

12.8

(23.3)

25.1

16.2

Total Borrowings
23,168.3

32,923.0

32,910.7

44.4

69.1

42.1

7.2

8.6

Foreign Liabilities
7,487.5

6,075.6

4,490.9

(0.8)

(7.2)

(40.0)

2.3

1.2

i. Short-term borrowings
2,490.6

2,288.9

1,863.6

33.2

14.5

(25.2)

0.8

0.5

ii. Long-term borrowings
4,015.1

2,263.8

1,563.9

(2.5)

(40.4)

(61.0)

1.2

0.4

iii. Deposits of non-residents
940.6

1,422.6

997.1

(39.1)

94.5

6.0

0.3

0.3

Domestic Liabilities
281,979.5

340,090.3

331,433.0

33.2

26.6

17.5

87.3

86.2

i. Short-term borrowing
15,230.3

26,524.1

27,361.9

83.0

113.1

79.7

4.7

7.1

ii. Long-term Borrowings
1,432.3

1,846.1

2,121.3

(17.6)

50.8

48.1

0.4

0.6

iii. Domestic Deposits
244,939.5

288,122.7

279,121.7

31.7

22.3

14.0

75.8

72.6

Other Liabilities
21,093.0

22,438.1

21,694.4

32.6

14.4

2.9

6.5

5.6

Paid-up capital
13,023.9

17,282.9

18,879.0

24.8

32.6

45.0

4.0

4.9

Shareholders' Funds
32,307.2

43,964.3

47,979.2

44.9

42.6

48.5

10.0

12.5

(GH ¢'million)
Y-on-Y Growth (%)
Shares (%)
Table 5.1: Key Developments in DMBs' Balance Sheet

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funds also rose to 12.5 percent from 10.0 percent, consistent with the strong growth in shareholders’
funds. The proportion of other liabilities on the other hand declined to 5.6 percent, from 6.5 percent
during the review period.

Figure 5.1: Developments in Banks’ Balance Sheet & Asset Quality

Source: Bank of Ghana

5.1.2 Share of Banks’ Investments
Bills (short-term debt instruments) constituted the largest component of banks’ investment portfolio,
after its share rose to 60.3 percent in June 2025, from 39.9 percent in June 2024. The share of long-term
securities in total investments, however, declined to 39.4 percent from 59.8 percent over the same
period. The share of equity investments remained negligible and unchanged at 0.3 percent during the
period under review.

5.2 Credit Risk
The industry’s asset quality improved during the first half of 2025, relative to the comparative period
in 2024, although credit risk remains elevated. The improved asset quality reflected in a decline in NPL
ratios in all but three economic sectors in June 2025 compared to June 2024.

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Components of Banks' Investments (% share)
Bills
Securities
Shares & Other Equities

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Asset Structure of Banks (%)
Cash and Due from Banks
Investments
Net Advances
Others

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Liability Structure of Banks (%)
Total Deposits
Total Borrowings
Shareholders' Funds
Other Liabilities

Components of Banks' Credit Portfolio (%)
Private sector
Public sector

Agric, Forest. & Fishing
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elect., Water & Gas
Commerce and Finance
Transp., Stor. & Commu.
Services
Miscellaneous
Distribution of Credit by Sector (%)
Jun-25
Jun-24

Agric, Forest. & Fishing
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elect., Water & Gas
Commerce and Finance
Transp., Stor. & Commu.
Services
Miscellaneous

NPL ratio in each Sector (%)
Jun-25
Jun-24

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5.2.1 Credit Portfolio Analysis
The stock of gross loans and advances (domestic and foreign) recorded a marginal growth of 6.1 percent
to GH¢89.7 billion at end-June 2025, compared to the 15.6 percent growth during the same period last
year. Private sector credit (comprising credit to private enterprises and households) posted a lower
growth of 9.2 percent to GH¢85.3 billion in June 2025, from 17.7 percent in the corresponding period
the previous year. Public sector credit contracted by 31.3 percent to GH¢4.4 billion at end-June 2025
compared to a contraction of 5.0 percent in June 2024. Consequently, the share of private sector credit
in total credit rose to 95.1 percent in June 2025, from 92.4 percent in June 2024, while the share of
public sector credit dropped to 4.9 percent, from 7.6 percent a year earlier.

In terms of the distribution of credit by sectors, the services sector accounted for the largest share of
37.2 percent as at end-June 2025 (32.8 percent in June 2024), followed by the commerce and finance
sector with a relative share of 24.4 percent (23.6 percent in June 2024), while the manufacturing sector
accounted for a share of 10.6 percent (10.7 percent in June 2024). Together, these top three sectors
accounted for 72.3 percent of total credit in June 2025 (67.2 percent in June 2024). The mining and
quarrying sector remained the lowest recipient of industry credit, with a share of 2.8 percent (3.3 percent
in June 2024).

5.2.2 Off-Balance Sheet Transactions
Off-balance sheet transactions (largely trade finance and guarantees) declined during the review period.
Contingent liabilities contracted by 34.5 percent to GH¢16.8 billion as at end-June 2025, from GH¢25.7
billion as at end-June 2024. Similarly, banks’ contingent liabilities as a percentage of total liabilities
declined to 5.0 percent in June 2025 from 8.8 percent in June 2024.

5.2.3 Asset Quality
The asset quality of the banking industry improved during the period under review. The industry’s NPL
ratio declined to 23.1 percent in June 2025 from 24.2 percent in June 2024. When the fully provisioned
loan loss category is adjusted for, the industry’s NPL ratio decreases to 8.5 percent from 10.8 percent,
reflecting decreasing stock in the sub-standard category of nonperforming loans. The decline in the
NPL ratio during the period under review is explained by the lower growth in the NPL stock relative to
the growth in total loans. The industry’s NPL stock increased by 1.3 percent to GH¢20.7 billion in June
2025, from GH¢20.4 billion in June 2024 (representing 49.4% year-on-year growth) although there was
a decrease in the share of foreign currency NPL.

The private sector accounted for the most non-performing loans, being the largest recipient of the
industry’s credit. The proportion of NPLs attributable to the private sector rose marginally to 96.4
percent in June 2025 from 95.6 percent in June 2024, while that of the public sector inched down to 3.6
percent from 4.4 percent a year earlier.

The commerce and finance sector, and the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector recorded increases in
their NPL ratios while that of the manufacturing sector remained unchanged in June 2025 compared
with the same reference period in 2024. The commerce and finance sector recorded the highest NPL
ratio of 27.0 percent (19.7 percent a year ago), followed by the services sector with an NPL ratio of
25.7 percent (26.6 percent a year earlier). The NPL ratio of the transport, storage and communications
sector decreased to 12.9 percent (15.1 percent a year earlier), followed by the construction sector with
a ratio of 11.4 percent (13.8 percent a year earlier), and then the manufacturing sector with an unchanged

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NPL ratio of 8.0 percent. The mining and quarrying sector accounted for the lowest NPL ratio of 0.7
percent in June 2025 (1.8 percent a year earlier).

5.3 Financial Soundness Indicators
Apart from the improvement in asset quality during the review period, other key financial soundness
indicators (FSIs) in the first half of 2025 pointed to an efficient and profitable sector with improving
capital buffers.

Figure 5.2: Key Financial Soundness Indicators

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.3.1 Liquidity Indicators
The industry’s liquidity position remained strong in June 2025, although core measures recorded
declines as banks rebalanced their portfolios. The ratio of core liquid assets (mainly cash and due from
banks) to total deposits decreased to 39.6 percent in June 2025 from 47.1 percent in June 2024, while
core liquid assets to total assets ratio decreased to 28.9 percent from 35.8 percent. However, the ratio
of broad liquid assets to total deposits grew to 97.4 percent from 90.6 percent, while broad liquid assets
to total assets ratio increased to 71.0 percent from 68.9 percent over the review period. (Annexes Table
5.5).

5.3.2 Capital Adequacy Ratio
The industry’s solvency position, measured by the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) adjusted for the
regulatory reliefs, was 19.7 percent in June 2025, compared to 14.3 percent recorded in June 2024. This
was higher than the revised prudential minimum of 10 percent. The CAR in June 2025 reflected the
recognition of 2025 profits posted by banks for purposes of CAR computation, as well as the on-going
recapitalisation of banks (Figure 5.2).


Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Efficiency Indicators (%)
Cost to income
Operational Cost to gross income
Cost to total assets (RHS)
Operational Cost to total assets (RHS)

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Profitability (%)
Return On Equity (%) after tax
Return On Assets (%) before tax

Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Asset Quality
SUB-STD (GH¢m)
DOUBTFUL (GH¢m)
LOSS (GH¢m)
Adjusted NPL Ratio (%)
NPL Ratio (% Right Axis)

Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Solvency (%)
RWA/Total Assets
CAR (with Reliefs)
CAR (w/o Reliefs)

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5.3.3 Profitability
The banking industry remained profitable for the first half of 2025, recording both a higher profitbefore-tax (PBT) and profit-after-tax (PAT) in June 2025 relative to the same period last year.

Generally, all income lines increased at higher growth rates in June 2025 compared to the same period
last year. Net interest income increased by 20.2 percent to GH¢14.2 billion, higher than the
corresponding growth of 19.4 percent in June 2024. In year-on-year terms, interest income increased to
GH¢21.6 billion from GH¢18.0 billion, representing a growth of 20.4 percent in June 2025 compared
with 19.1 percent in June 2024. The higher growth in interest income is explained by the relatively
higher rates on money market instruments this year compared to the first half of 2024, as well as higher
lending rates. Interest expenses also rose to GH¢7.5 billion in June 2025, representing a higher growth
rate of 20.7 percent compared to the 18.6 percent growth recorded in June 2024.

Net fees and commissions recorded a marginal growth of 17.8 percent from 16.8 percent a year ago
while other income recorded a higher growth of 52.2 percent to GH¢3.6 million from GH¢2.4 billion
(16.2% contraction) during the same review period. These developments in the different income lines
culminated in an increase in the industry’s operating income to GH¢20.9 billion in June 2025 from
GH¢16.8 billion, representing a higher growth of 24.4 percent compared to 12.3 percent in the year
prior. Similarly, gross income increased to GH¢28.3 billion in June 2025 (23.4% year-on-year growth)
from GH¢23.0 billion in June 2024 (14.0% year-on-year growth).

The cost lines recorded similar increases in growth rates in June 2025 compared to the same period in
2024. The industry’s operating expenses grew by 21.4 percent in June 2025, compared to 15.5 percent
in June 2024, on the back of higher growth in staff costs and other operating (administrative) expenses.
However, impairment losses on financial assets as well as provisions for bad debt and depreciation
contracted by 14.8 percent in June 2025, compared to the 39.5 percent contraction in June 2024.

Consequently, the industry’s profit-after-tax increased by 32.6 percent to GH¢7.2 billion in June 2025,
compared with the 25.5 percent growth recorded in June 2024. Profit-before-tax also rose by 32.2
percent to GH¢10.8 billion, from GH¢8.1 billion in June 2024. The higher growth in profit during the
first half of this year was due to increases in interest income and other income lines in 2025 relative to
the same period in 2024.

(a) Return on Assets and Return on Equity
The banking sector’s profitability indicators, namely return-on-assets (ROA) and return-on-equity
(ROE), recorded a mixed performance during the period under review. The ROA improved marginally
by 5.6 percent in June 2025, from 5.4 percent in June 2024, on account of a moderate growth in total
assets relative to industry profit. The ROE, however, declined to 32.2 percent in June 2025, from 35.3
percent in June 2024 on the back of a higher growth in shareholders’ funds relative to industry profit.

(b) Interest Margin and Spread
Interest spreads for the banking sector narrowed to 6.0 percent in June 2025 from 6.4 percent in June
2024. The decrease in spreads was on the back of a decline in gross yields and interest payable. Gross
yields declined to 8.9 percent in June 2025 from 9.4 percent in June 2024 while interest payable
decreased to 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent a year earlier. The ratio of interest margin to total assets
remained flat at 3.7 percent, while interest margin to gross income declined from 51.4 percent to 50.1
percent during the period under review. The ratio of gross income to total assets (asset utilisation) rose

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to 7.4 percent in June 2025 from 7.1 percent in June 2024, while the profitability ratio increased from
23.5 percent to 25.3 percent over the review period.

(c) Composition of Banks’ Income
Income from investments remained the largest component of banks’ total income in June 2025, with its
share rising to 43.9 percent from 42.8 percent in June 2024 following the growth in total investments.
The share of interest income from loans, however, decreased to 33.6 percent from 36.3 percent in June
2024. The share of banks’ income from fees and commissions increased to 11.2 percent from 10.5
percent, while the share of income from other sources also rose to 11.3 percent from 10.4 percent during
the period under review.

Figure 5.3: Composition of Income, Cost and Borrowings

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.3.4 Operational Efficiency
The industry’s efficiency recorded a mixed performance during the first half of 2025 compared with
the same period last year. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 74.7 percent in June 2025, from 76.5
percent in June 2024, whereas cost-to-total assets ratio weakened to 5.5 percent, from 5.4 percent a year
earlier. The operational cost-to-total assets ratio also increased to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent a year
earlier, reflecting the higher growth in operating expenses in June 2025 relative to June 2024. However,
the ratio of operational cost to total income improved to 48.4 percent from 49.6 percent, following the
strong outturn in income in June 2025 compared with the corresponding period last year.


Composition of Cost (%)
Interest Expense
Operating Expense
Total Provision
Tax

Composition of Banks' Income (%)
Investments
Loans
Fees & Commissions
Other Income

Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Banks' Borrowing by Source (% of Total)
Domestic Borrowing
Foreign Borrowing

Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Banks' External Borrowing by Maturity
(% of Total)
Short-term borrowings
Long term borrowings

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5.3.5 Banks’ Counterparty Relationships
Total offshore balances decreased by 34.1 percent to GH¢19.7 billion in June 2025, compared to the
71.4 percent growth in the previous year, driven largely by a contraction in placements and nostro
balances. Industry placements with foreign counterparties recorded contracted by 22.8 percent from the
69.4 percent growth recorded during the same period a year earlier. Similarly, nostro balances also
contracted by 44.7 percent compared with a growth of 73.6 percent in June 2024. As a result, the ratio
of offshore balances to net worth decreased to 41.1 percent from 92.6 percent during the review period.

The share of banks’ external borrowings in total borrowings declined to 10.4 percent in June 2025, from
28.1 percent in June 2024, while the share of domestic borrowings increased to 89.6 percent from 71.9
percent in June 2024. Banks’ external borrowings were tilted towards short-term instruments with the
share of short-term borrowings in total external borrowings increasing to 54.4 percent from 38.3
percent, while the share of long-term borrowings declined to 45.6 percent from 61.7 percent a year
earlier.

5.4 Credit Conditions Survey
Results of the June 2025 Credit Conditions Survey indicated a net tightening in the overall stance on
loans to enterprises between April and June 2025, on the back of a net tightening in the stance on all
components of enterprise loans (namely short-term and long-term enterprise loans, loans to SMEs, and
loans to large enterprises). Banks projected their overall stance on enterprise loans to record a net easing
in July and August 2025 from an easing in all components of enterprise loans apart from loans to large
enterprises.

However, the overall stance on loans to households eased during the June 2025 survey round from a
net ease in stance on all components of household loans (namely loans for house purchases and
consumer credit and other lending). Over the next two months, banks project a net easing in the overall
stance on loans to households, driven mainly by a net ease on consumer credit and other lending,
although the stance on loans for house purchases is expected to tighten.

On the demand side, the June 2025 survey further indicated a reduction in overall demand for enterprise
loans from decreases in the demand for loans on all components of enterprise loans except long-term
loans. Banks projected a net decreased demand for corporate loans over the next two months on account
of a net decrease in the demand by small and medium-sized enterprises although demand for loans by
large enterprises is projected to increase.

Credit demand by households recorded a net increase between April and June 2025 from a net increase
in the demand for both mortgages and consumer credit and other lending. Over the next two months,
banks expect a surge in the demand for both consumer credit and loans for house purchases to drive a
net increase in the overall demand for household loans.

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Figure 5.4: Credit Conditions Survey Results

Source: Bank of Ghana


5.5 Conclusion and Outlook
The banking sector’s performance continued to improve in the first six months of the year. The sector
remained profitable, with all banks recording profits for first half of 2025. The banking sector solvency
and efficiency indicators pointed to relative improvement. The industry’s outlook remains stable, with
recapitalisation and enforcement of stringent credit underwriting standards, as well as intensified loan
recovery efforts being critical to the performance of the sector going forward.


NPR (%)
Loans for house purchase
Consumer credit and other lending
Overall stance to Households
Households
-30
-20
-10

NPR (%)
Loans for house purchase
Loans for consumer credit
Overall Household demand for loans
Households

NPR (%)
Small and Medium Enterprises
Large Enterprises
Overall Credit Stance for Enterprises
Short term enterprise loans
Long term enterprise loans
Index, a rise denotes tightening
Corporates

NPR (%)
Overall Demand for credit
Small and Medium Enterprises
Large Enterprises
Short term
Long term
Index, a rise denotes increase in
demand
Corporates

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6. Macroprudential Developments

6.0 Overview
There has been an improvement in global and domestic macroeconomic risk levels in June 2025
compared to June 2024. The soundness of the banking sector, especially its resilience to shocks, has
improved markedly, year-on-year. However, debt servicing remains a challenge for both the corporate
and household sectors. The debt market has shown signs of renewed foreign investor sentiment
following the successful completion of Ghana’s debt restructuring.

6.1 Microfinancial Risk Assessment
The Bank of Ghana observed an improvement in global and domestic macroeconomic risk levels in
June 2025 compared to June 2024. From the Cobweb framework, risk levels from both the global
macroeconomy and the domestic macroeconomy improved in June 2025 relative to June 2024. This
outcome was largely driven by sustained economic growth and declining inflation globally and
domestically, alongside other domestic factors such as exchange rate appreciation, a stronger reserve
position, and lower public debt levels. However, risks from the corporate and household sectors
remained broadly unchanged, reflecting the relatively high non-performing ratio in the banking sector.
In the outlook, global economic risks are expected to moderate in the near term, supported by a steady
decline in inflation. However, downside risks remain, including the adverse effects of geopolitical
tensions on growth, commodity prices, and financial conditions. On the domestic economy front, risk
levels are projected to remain stable on the back of sustained growth amid monetary policy easing and
the expected disinflationary trend. It is the expectation that the monetary policy rate cut, together with
the reductions in the 91-day Treasury Bill and Interbank weighted average rate, will drive lending rates
downwards. This will help moderate risk build-up in the corporate and household sectors.

Figure 6.1: Cobweb Diagram

Source: Bank of Ghana

The private sector–credit to GDP gap is another measure of macrofinancial risk used in monitoring
financial stability conditions. A positive credit-to-GDP gap indicates that total private sector credit
extension relative to the size of the economy is above its long-term trend and vice versa. The negative
credit-to-GDP gap recorded in June 2025 suggests that there is further scope to expand private sector

Global Economy Risk
Domestic Economy Risk
Households Sector Risk
Corporate Sector Risk
Jun-2023
Jun-2024
Jun-2025

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credit delivery without causing excessive build-up of risks in the economy, subject to sound credit risk
management practices by the banking sector.


Figure 6.2: Credit-to-GDP Gap

Source: Bank of Ghana

6.2 Risk of Capital Flight
While the Ghana Stock Market has outperformed its peers, foreign investors have taken advantage to
realize capital gains by selling off their shares during the first half of the year. However, there was a
gradual recovery of foreign investors' activities in the bond market.

The Ghana stock exchange (GSE) outperformed its peers in sub-Saharan Africa. This is partly due to
the strong earnings of some listed institutions and favourable economic prospects. The positive
performance is expected to contain foreign portfolio reversals from the equity market. As of July 15,
2025, the GSE recorded a year-to-date return of 32.0 per cent, compared to 28.1 per cent, -2.3 per cent,
and 22.8 per cent for similar markets in Kenya, Namibia, and Nigeria over the same period.

Figure 6.3: Year-to-Date Returns of Selected Stock Markets in SSA - 2025

Source: Databank Group

As of end-May 2025, foreign investors on the equity market recorded a year-to-date net sell-off of
GH¢594.42 million, significantly higher than the GH¢109.34 million recorded over the same period in
2024. The increasing sell-off partly reflects their desire to realize gains from the cedi’s appreciation and
the strong stock market performance experienced over the past two years.


0.5

1.5

2.5
2008Q2
2008Q4
2009Q2
2009Q4
2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q2
2015Q4
2016Q2
2016Q4
2017Q2
2017Q4
2018Q2
2018Q4
2019Q2
2019Q4
2020Q2
2020Q4
2021Q2
2021Q4
2022Q2
2022Q4
2023Q2
2023Q4
2024Q2
2024Q4
2025Q2
CTGDP_GAP

02-Jan-25
09-Jan-25
16-Jan-25
23-Jan-25
30-Jan-25
06-Feb-25
13-Feb-25
20-Feb-25
27-Feb-25
06-Mar-25
13-Mar-25
20-Mar-25
27-Mar-25
03-Apr-25
10-Apr-25
17-Apr-25
24-Apr-25
01-May-25
08-May-25
15-May-25
22-May-25
29-May-25
05-Jun-25
12-Jun-25
19-Jun-25
26-Jun-25
03-Jul-25
10-Jul-25
Ghana
Kenya
Namibia
Nigeria

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The debt market has shown signs of renewed foreign investor sentiment following the successful
completion of Ghana’s debt restructuring. The foreign investors made net purchases of GH¢69.14
million in the first five months of 2025 compared with 3.89 million in 2024.

Figure 6.4: Foreign Investors' Cumulative Net Purchases in the equity and debt market


Source: Central Securities Depository

6.3 Banking Sector Soundness
The Banking Sector Soundness Index (BSSI) improved year-on-year on the back of improved solvency
amid strong liquidity, cost-efficiency, and profitability of the sector. The non-performing loans ratio,
though improved, remained elevated. That notwithstanding, the ongoing macroeconomic recovery has
led to a significant moderation in the build-up of new non-performing loans.

Figure 6.5: Banking Sector Soundness Index (BSSI)

Source: Bank of Ghana


GHS M
CUMULATIVE NET MONTHLY
FOREIGN INVESTOR EQUITY
PURCHASES GHC M (JAN-MAY)


GHS M
CUMULATIVE NET MONTHLY
FOREIGN INVESTOR DEBT
INSTRUMENTS PURCHASES GHC
M (JAN-MAY)

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The heatmap shows a broad-based improvement in financial soundness indicators across the banking
sector. It highlights the improvements in capital adequacy and profitability year-on-year.
Notwithstanding these gains, non-performing loans remain elevated.

Table 6.1: Heatmap

Color Code
Green
Blue
Yellow
Red
Performing Period
1st Best
2nd Best
3rd Best
4th Best
Source: Bank of Ghana

6.4 Banking Sector Resilience
The stress tests assessed the implications of macroeconomic developments in the outlook for the
solvency conditions of the banking sector. The results of the stress tests indicated that the banking sector
appears resilient to adverse macroeconomic developments, given the current strong capital positions of
the banks. Again, a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions could negatively impact asset quality
and increase operational costs, but these would be offset by gains from net interest income.


FSIs
Jun-23
Sep-23 Dec-23
Mar-24
Apr-24 Jun-24
Sep-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25
May-25 Jun-25
Capital Adequacy
Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets (Threshold - Without Reliefs)
7.36

7.39

8.27

11.69

11.48

10.55

11.17

11.28

11.15

12.10

15.54

15.84

18.58

17.83

Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets (Distribution - Without Reliefs)
7.36

7.39

8.27

11.69

11.48

10.55

11.17

11.28

11.15

12.10

15.54

15.84

18.58

18.24

Regulatory tier I capital to risk-weighted assets
11.60

11.03

11.04

13.56

12.95

11.46

11.51

11.13

10.83

11.74

14.89

13.96

16.64

16.28

Asset Quality
Nonperforming loans net of loan-loss provision to capital
14.26

11.28

14.55

19.45

15.78

15.36

12.29

11.10

11.07

10.82

11.98

10.81

9.00

8.32

Nonperforming loans to total gross loans
18.71

17.99

20.58

26.74

25.66

24.13

22.77

21.79

22.55

22.57

23.44

23.57

23.52

23.09

Banks provisions to NPL
76.76

78.89

73.19

71.70

75.66

75.66

78.35

78.74

78.27

78.42

76.67

78.13

79.51

80.73

Earnings
Return on assets
5.54

5.33

5.37

5.63

5.39

5.40

5.05

5.04

4.85

4.67

4.96

4.98

5.35

5.61

Return on equity
37.59

35.58

34.16

36.36

34.97

35.25

32.12

30.84

29.71

28.51

29.92

30.02

31.47

32.21

Interest margin to gross income
49.06

51.27

51.80

54.23

52.46

51.41

51.10

50.92

52.36

51.72

51.82

51.28

50.08

50.11

Liquidity
Core liquid assets to total assets
26.77

24.73

29.34

30.99

33.77

34.47

35.39

36.16

36.15

37.41

36.24

35.36

31.23

27.50

Core liquid assets to short-term liabilities
32.29

29.83

35.48

37.32

40.61

41.39

42.54

43.31

43.61

45.23

43.47

42.51

38.03

33.68

Core liquid assets to total deposits
34.60

31.71

37.61

40.04

43.84

45.31

46.82

48.16

48.58

50.15

48.20

47.63

42.95

37.73

Broad liquid assets to total assets
63.78

64.73

65.69

68.35

68.21

67.55

67.58

66.87

68.19

69.08

69.44

69.93

70.29

69.67

Broad liquid assets to short-term liabilities
76.92

78.07

79.42

82.31

82.03

81.10

81.23

80.09

82.28

83.53

83.30

84.07

85.60

85.31

Efficiency
Noninterest expenses to gross income
41.26

42.69

43.04

38.86

38.78

37.65

39.43

40.83

38.70

38.63

37.78

38.08

36.51

35.70

Personnel expenses to gross income
15.49

15.65

15.67

16.19

16.65

16.62

16.67

16.45

17.65

18.21

17.25

17.47

17.35

16.71

PUBLIC

Figure 6.6: Key Macroeconomic Scenarios of Stress Tests


Source: Bank of Ghana


Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Real GDP growth (%, yoy)
History
Baseline
Adverse
Severely adverse

Inflation (%, yoy)
History
Baseline

Interbank rate (%)
History
Baseline

T-Bill Rate (%)
History 25.17% 25.28%
Baseline

Lending rate (%)
History
Baseline

4Y Bond yield
History
Baseline
Adverse
Severely adverse

Exchange rate
History
Baseline
Adverse
Severely adverse

PUBLIC
Figure 6.7: Results of Macro Stress Test

Source: Bank of Ghana


6.5 Conclusion
The macro-prudential assessment of the banking sector indicates that positive macroeconomic
developments have supported the banking sector’s performance and moderated systemic risk in
H12025. The Bank’s stress test results suggest that the banking sector’s resilience to shocks has
improved due to profit retention, capital injections, adequate liquidity, and moderation in the build-up
of new non-performing loans. However, debt servicing remains a challenge for both the corporate and
household sectors. It is expected that the ongoing macroeconomic recovery, restructuring of loans to
eligible borrowers, and implementation of measures outlined in the Bank of Ghana’s Regulatory Notice
to banks on reducing NPLs will help address this challenge. In the near term, sustaining the
macroeconomic gains would provide the impetus for a stronger recovery in the banking sector’s
intermediation capacity.


Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Dec-25
Percent
Post-Stress CAR
History
Baseline
Adverse
Severely Adverse

PUBLIC

7. Fiscal Developments

7.0 Highlights
The provisional half year 2025 fiscal performance indicates that total revenue and grants grew, in yearon-year terms, by 30.5 percent. Despite the significant growth, the outturn was about 3.2 percent below
target. Expenditures were broadly contained, 14.3 percent below the programmed target. The primary
balance on commitment basis (the fiscal anchor) as at end-June 2025 recorded a surplus of 1.1 percent
of GDP, surpassing the targeted surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP. The significant appreciation of the cedi
has reduced the debt burden and improved debt sustainability.

7.1 Revenue and Grants
Total revenue and grants as of June 2025 was GH¢99,339.3 million (7.1% of GDP), less than the target
of GH¢102,577.4 million (7.3% of GDP). This outturn represented a shortfall of 3.2 percent from the
target but registered a year-on-year growth of 30.5 percent. The shortfall was mainly on the account of
the underperformance of non-tax revenue, taxes on international trade, and grants.

Non-oil tax revenue was GH¢82,954.0 million (5.9% of GDP), accounting for 83.5 of the total revenue
and grants, and was above its target of GH¢82,167 million (5.9% of GDP) by 1.0 percent. The
overperformance was mainly due to corporate income tax exceeding its target by GH¢555.3 million
(2.9%), and mineral royalties exceeding its target by GH¢143.0 million as well as the payment of a
capital gains tax of GH¢2,500 million paid by Newmont Ghana Limited on its sale of Akyem Mines.

Non-oil non-tax revenue amounted to GH¢8,031.0 million (0.6% of GDP), representing 8.1 percent of
total revenue and grants. The outturn was below its target of GH¢9,513 million (0.7% of GDP) by 15.6
percent. This is made-up of MDAs’ IGF retention, IGF lodgement, fees & user charges,
dividends/interest & profits, and surface rentals from oil. The underperformance was on account of
lower than programmed dividend/interest & profits as well as fees and charges collections for the
period.

Oil and gas receipts was GH¢3,541.0 million below the target of GH¢6,201.00. The underperformance
was due to delays in receipts from corporate income tax from oil and the appreciation of the Ghana
cedi.

Other Revenue Measures (ESLA) of GH¢4,084 million was received, accounting for 4.1 percent of
total revenue and was above its target of GH¢3,627 million by 12.6 percent. The overperformance was
mainly due to increased consumption of petroleum products.

Grants was GH¢730 million, which was below its target of GH¢1,069 million by 3.2 percent. This
underperformance was on the back of slowdown in disbursement to repurpose government project loan
portfolio.

7.2 Expenditure
Total expenditures for the review period amounted to GH¢109,594.2 million (7.8% of GDP) and within
its programmed target of GH¢128,042.8 million (9.1% of GDP) by 14.4 percent. This outturn
represented a year-on-year growth of 3.8 percent. All the expenditure lines were below target except
for compensation of employees.

PUBLIC

Table 7.1: Revenue and Grants
Million Ghana Cedis

2025/2024

OUTTURN
OUTTURN
PROG
DEVIATION
Y-O-Y

Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
OVER(+)/
BELOW(-)
GROWTH
TAX REVENUE

60,367.2

84,348.5

85,297.45

(1.1)

39.7
TAXES ON INCOME & PROPERTY

29,346.6

43,733.3

41,778.30

4.7

49.0
Personal

9,377.0

12,832.5

13,161.37

(2.5)

36.9
Companies

12,363.8

19,946.6

19,391.32
2.9

61.3
Company Taxes on Oil

1,821.9

870.8

1,957.62
(55.5)

(52.2)
Others

5,783.9

10,083.3

7,267.99
38.7

74.3
TAXES ON DOMESTIC GOODS AND SERVICES

25,966.6

34,732.8

34,394.77

1.0

33.8
Excises

3,250.8

3,044.7

4,003.98
(24.0)

(6.3)
VAT

14,312.2

19,723.2

19,770.14

(0.2)

37.8
National Health Insurance Levy (NHIL)

3,066.4

4,588.9

3,903.76
17.6

49.7
GETFund Levy

3,066.5

4,561.7

3,916.71
16.5

48.8
Communication Service Tax

367.3

695.8

513.63
35.5

89.4
E-Transaction Levy

810.5

812.7

517.70
57.0

0.3
Covid-19 Health Levy

1,092.8

1,305.8

1,768.85
(26.2)

19.5
TAXES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE

8,386.2

10,956.8

12,548.00

(12.7)

30.7
Imports Duty

8,386.2

10,956.8

12,548.00


TAX REFUND

(3,332.2)

(5,074.4)

(3,423.63)
48.2

52.3
SOCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS

692.6

796.2

596.73
33.4

15.0
NON-TAX REVENUE

11,265.1

10,177.4

12,583.97

(19.1)

(9.7)
OTHER REVENUE

2,539.5

3,287.3

3,030.63

8.5

29.4
DOMESTIC REVENUE

74,864.3

98,609.4

101,508.8

(2.9)

31.7
GRANTS

1,237.9

729.9

1,068.6

(31.7)

(41.0)
Project Grants

1,237.9

729.9

1,068.6


Programme Grants
0.0
0.0
726.3


TOTAL REVENUE & GRANTS

76,102.2

99,339.3

102,577.4

(3.16)

30.5
Source: Ministry of Finance

Compensation of employees (including wages and salaries and social contributions) was GH¢38,842.49
million and accounted for 35.4 percent of total expenditure. This was marginally higher than the target
of GH¢38,320.06 million by 1.4 precent and recorded year-on-year growth of 21.0 percent. In terms of
fiscal flexibility, compensation of employees constituted 39.1 percent of domestic revenue mobilised
during the period under review. The overrun was largely due to last-minute recruitments in late 2024
and ad-hoc reviews of conditions of service.

PUBLIC
Use of goods and services totalled GH¢1,942.5 million, constituting 1.8 percent of total expenditure.
This was below the target of GH¢3,158.5 million by 38.5 percent and recorded a year-on-year decline
of 63.0 percent. The significant decline was on the back of commitment control measures by the
government.

Table 7.2: Expenditure
Million Ghana Cedis

2025/2024

OUTTURN
OUTTURN
PROG
DEVIATION
Y-O-Y

Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
OVER(+)/
BELOW(-)
GROWTH
Compensation of Employees

32,091.6

38,842.5

38,320.1

1.4

21.0
Use of Goods and Services

5,246.0

1,942.5

3,158.5

(38.5)

(63.0)
Interest Payment

19,028.5

25,422.9

30,504.7

(16.7)

33.6
Domestic

18,463.1

21,629.8

26,532.2

(18.5)

17.2
External (Due)

565.4

3,793.1

3,972.4

(4.5)

570.9
Subsidies

145.3
-

149.8
-

3.1
Grants to Other Government Units

19,272.1

24,866.4

24,921.9

(0.2)

29.0
Social Benefits

376.8

1,464.5

1,618.5

(9.5)

288.6
Other Expenditure

12,976.9

9,950.4

11,310.9

(12.0)

(23.3)
o/w Energy Sector Payment Shortfalls

10,600.6

9,106.2

6,376.9

42.8

(14.1)
Capital Expenditure

16,418.5

7,105.1

18,058.5

(60.7)

(56.7)
Domestic financed

8,904.1

3,951.7

8,641.9

(54.3)

(55.6)
Foreign financed

7,514.4

3,153.4

9,416.6

(66.5)

(58.0)
TOTAL EXPENDITURE

105,555.7

109,594.2

128,042.8

(14.4)

3.8
Source: Ministry of Finance

Total interest payments of GH¢25,422.9 million fell below the programmed target of GH¢30,504.7
million for the review period, accounting for 23.2 of total expenditure. Out of the total interest
payments, domestic interest payment was GH¢21,629.8 falling below the target of GH¢26,532.2
million largely on the back of lower borrowing and interest cost. External interest payment of
GH¢3,793.1 million also fell below its target of GH¢3,972.4 million due to the appreciation of the local
currency, resulting in lower external debt service burden.

Capital expenditure of GH¢7,105.1 million (0.5% of GDP), representing 6.5 percent of total
expenditure, was below its programmed target of GH¢18,058.5 million (1.3% of GDP) by 60.7 percent
and registered a year-on-year decline of 56.7 percent. Capital expenditure comprised GH¢3,951.7
million in domestic-financed spending (significantly below the target of GH¢8,641.9 million), and
GH¢3,153.4 million in foreign-financed spending (also falling short of the target of GH¢9,416.6
million). The underperformance of capital expenditure was largely due to a shortfall in ABFA revenue
earmarked for the Big Push projects, the implementation of government commitment control measures,
and the appreciation of the local currency.

PUBLIC
Other expenditure amounted to GH¢9,950.4 million, representing 9.1 percent of total expenditure for
the half year. This was 12 percent below the target of GH¢11,310.9 million and reflected a year-onyear decline of 23.3 percent. The underperformance was mainly due to the absence of programmed
transfers to the GoldBod.

Grants to other government units amounted to GH¢24,866.4 million, representing 22.7 percent of total
expenditure. This was 0.2 percent below the target of GH¢24,921.9 million but reflected a year-on-year
growth of 29.0 percent.


7.3 Budget Balance and Financing
Government budgetary operations resulted in an overall budget deficit (cash basis) of
GH¢15,119.5million (1.1% of GDP). This was less than the targeted deficit of GH¢32,961.7 million
(2.4% of GDP) and the deficit of GH¢37,335.5 million (3.2% of GDP) for the corresponding period in
2024. The overall deficit was financed from both domestic and external sources. Government borrowed,
on net basis, GH¢13,076.8 million from domestic sources and relied on net foreign financing of
GH¢2,762.4 million. The corresponding primary balance (cash basis) for 2025H1 improved to a surplus
of GH¢10,303.5 million (0.4% of GDP), from a deficit of GH¢18,307 million (1.6% of GDP) in the
same period of 2024. The primary balance on commitment basis (the fiscal anchor) improved to a
surplus of GH¢15,083.4 million (1.1% of GDP), from a deficit of GH¢4,161.3 million (0.4% of GDP)
in the same period of 2024 surpassing the half year target of GH¢5,039.3 million (0.4% of GDP).

Table 7.3: Budget Balance and Financing
Million Ghana Cedis

2025/2024

OUTTURN
OUTTURN
PROG
DEVIATION
Y-O-Y

Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
OVER(+)/
BELOW(-)
GROWTH
Revenue & Grants

76,102.2

99,339.3

102,577.4

(3.16)

30.5
Expenditure

105,555.7

109,594.2

128,042.8

(14.4)

3.8
Overall balance (commitment)

(29,453.5)

(10,254.9)

(25,465.4)

(59.7)

(65.2)
(percent of GDP)

(2.5)

(0.7)

(1.8)


Arrears Clearance (Net)

(14,145.7)

(4,779.9)

(7,496.3)

(36.2)

(66.2)
o/w Clearance of Arrears

(18,683.5)

(4,779.9)

(7,496.3)


(74.4)
o/w Payables build-up

4,537.8
0.0
0.0


Overall balance (cash)

(43,599.2)

(15,034.8)

(32,961.7)

(54.4)

(65.5)
(percent of GDP)

(3.7)
-1.1
-2.4


Discrepancy

6,263.6

(84.7)

0.0


Overall balance (incl. Divestiture and Discrepancy)

(37,335.5)

(15,119.5)

(32,961.7)

-54.1

(59.5)
(percent of GDP)

(3.2)
-1.1
-2.4


Financing

37,335.5

15,119.5

32,961.7

(54.1)

(59.5)
Foreign (net)

16,242.9

2,762.4

14,626.8

(81.1)

(83.0)
Borrowing

17,321.9

6,928.4

19,125.0

(63.8)

(60.0)

PUBLIC
Project loans

6,276.5

2,423.4

8,348.0

(71.0)

(61.4)
Programme Loans

11,045.4

4,505.0

10,777.0


o/w IMF

7,189.8

4,505.0

5,878.4


o/w World Bank DPO

3,855.6
-
4,898.6


Sovereign Bond
-
0.0
-


Amortisation (due)

(1,078.9)

(4,166.1)

(4,498.2)

(7.4)

286.1
Domestic (net)

21,603.3

13,076.8

18,865.6

(30.7)

(39.5)
Banking

(3,146.8)

(568.2)

9,976.2

(105.7)

(81.9)
Bank of Ghana

(4,075.0)

4,582.7
-


(212.5)
Comm. Banks

928.2

(5,150.9)

9,976.2

(151.6)

(654.9)
Non-banks

24,750.1

13,645.0

8,889.4


(44.9)
Ghana Petroleum Funds

(814.1)

(719.7)

(430.2)


(11.6)
Transfer to Ghana Petroleum Funds

(1,336.7)

(825.2)

(1,434.1)


(38.3)
o/w Stabilisation Fund

(935.7)

(577.6)

(1,003.9)


(38.3)
o/w Heritage Fund

(401.0)

(247.5)

(430.2)


(38.3)
Transfer from Stabilisation Fund

522.6

105.5

1,003.9


Sinking Fund

303.3
-
(100.4)


Contingency Fund
- - -


Nominal GDP (Including Oil)

1,176,219.9

1,400,006.1

1,400,006.1


Nominal GDP (Excluding oil)

1,128,205.1

1,350,563.8

1,350,563.8


Source: Ministry of Finance

7.4 Public Debt Analysis
The outstanding stock of public debt as of end-June 2025 stood at GH¢613,000.06 million, equivalent
to 43.8 percent of GDP. This reflects a decline of GH¢113,679.94 million (8.1 percent of GDP) from
the end-December 2024 level of GH¢726,680.00 million (61.8 percent of GDP). For the corresponding
period in 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 63.3 percent. The reduction was largely driven by the
restructuring of Eurobond debt and the significant appreciation of the Ghana cedi. Of the total public
debt, external debt amounted to GH¢300,278.09 million (21.45 percent of GDP), while domestic debt
stood at GH¢312,722.51 million (22.34 percent of GDP). In terms of the composition of total public
debt, external debt accounted for approximately 49 percent, with domestic debt representing the
remaining 51 percent.

PUBLIC
Table 7.4: Public Debt

Jun 2025 -
Dec 2024

JUNE
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
CHANGE
TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT (GH¢m)

SHORT TERM

MEDIUM-TERM

LONG-TERM

STANDARD LOANS

HOLDINGS OF DOMESTIC DEBT
(GH¢m)

BANKING SYSTEM

NON-BANK

FOREIGN SECTOR (Non-Resident)

STANDARD LOANS


TOTAL EXTERNAL(US$m)

MULTILATERAL

BILATERAL

COMMERCIAL

TOTAL EXTERNAL(GH¢m)

TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT (GH¢m)

EXCHANGE RATE (End Period
Selling MOF)


MEMORANDUM ITEMS


NOMINAL GDP ( GH¢m)


TOTAL DEBT /GDP RATIO (%)


EXTERNAL DEBT/GDP


DOMESTIC DEBT/GDP


EXTERNAL DEBT/TOTAL DEBT


DOMESTIC DEBT/TOTAL DEBT


Source: Bank of Ghana, Ministry of Finance

7.5 Outlook
Systemic revenue leakages at key customs collection points, along with the smuggling of goods,
continue to undermine revenue mobilisation efforts. Wage and salary overruns are placing significant
pressure on the compensation budget and pose a threat to fiscal consolidation. Additionally, rising fuel
costs to support power generation could place further pressure on the national budget and warrant close
monitoring.

PUBLIC
7.6 Conclusion
The fiscal performance for the first half of 2025 showed significant improvement, with the primary
balance on a commitment basis (the fiscal anchor) recording a surplus of 1.1 percent of GDP, surpassing
the target of 0.4 percent. Total revenue and grants posted a mixed performance: while non-oil tax
revenue exceeded targets, petroleum receipts, non-oil non-tax revenue, and grants underperformed.
Expenditures were tightly managed, with total spending 14.3 percent below the programmed amount.
Interest payments declined, driven by reduced borrowing, lower interest costs, and the appreciation of
the local currency. Budget financing relied heavily on domestic sources, with net domestic financing
amounting to GH¢13,076.8 million—well below the target. The record appreciation of the Ghana cedi
contributed to a reduction in the debt burden and accelerated progress toward debt sustainability.

PUBLIC
8. Price Developments

8.0 Highlights
Domestic inflation has declined consistently through the first half of 2025, cumulatively dropping by
10.1 percentage points since December 2024. The decline has been broad-based, across both the food
and non-food categories. It has also been driven by tight monetary policy and a sharp appreciation of
the domestic currency. Staff projections show a high probability of inflation declining to 12 percent in
the third quarter of 2025 and further down to the medium-term target of 8 ± 2 percent by the end of
2025.

8.1 Global Growth and Inflation Developments
The global disinflation process has stalled in some advanced economies, primarily due to rising food,
energy and services costs. Moreover, recent U.S. tariff actions and corresponding retaliatory measures
have heightened long-term inflation expectations in many emerging market economies. As a result,
global inflation is projected to remain elevated in the near-term, with some upside risks—mainly
stemming from persistent trade protectionism and policy uncertainty. Global inflation is expected to
return to target levels sooner in advanced economies, reaching 2.2 percent by 2026 from 2.5 percent in
2025. In contrast, emerging market and developing economies will see a slower decline, with inflation
easing to 4.6 percent from 5.5 percent over the same period (World Economic Outlook, April 2025).

Global economic activity is expected to be significantly impacted by the rapid escalation of trade
tensions and exceptionally high levels of policy uncertainty. The direct effects of new trade measures—
alongside their indirect spillovers through heightened uncertainty and deteriorating sentiments—
prompted a downgrade of global growth projections (World Economic Outlook, April 2025). These
revisions were broad-based across regions, reflecting widespread vulnerabilities. Moreover, highfrequency indicators, such as purchasing managers’ surveys, further signal a slowdown in growth
momentum.

Figure 8.1: Advanced Economies Headline Inflation Rates (%)

Source: Trading Economics


-2
-1

Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
US
UK
Japan
Euro Area
Inflation in Advanced Economies
(Year-on-Year, percent)
Source: Trading Economics

PUBLIC

Figure 8.2: Emerging Markets Economies Headline Inflation Rates (%)

Source: Trading Economics


Figure 8.3: Global growth projections

Source: IMF WEO, April 2025

8.2 Domestic Price Developments
Domestic inflation declined steadily throughout the first half of 2025, with broad-based moderation
across both food and non-food categories. Headline inflation fell to 13.7 percent in June 2025, down
from 23.8 percent in December 2024, driven by tight monetary policy and a sharp appreciation of the
domestic currency. This represents a cumulative decline of 10.1 percentage points over the six-month
period.

Non-food inflation dropped significantly from 20.3 percent in December 2024 to 11.4 percent in June
2025, while food inflation also saw a sharp decline—falling to 16.3 percent from 27.8 percent over the
same period. These improvements were largely due to a 42.6 percent year-to-date appreciation of the
Ghana Cedi as at June 2025, which helped ease imported inflation, stabilize prices and re-anchor
inflation expectations. Additionally, stepped-up liquidity sterilization efforts and a downward revision
in ex-pump petroleum prices, which triggered a 15 percent reduction in transport fares, further
supported the disinflation process.


Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
China
Brazil
Turkey (LHS)
Inflation in Emerging Markets Economies
(Year-on-Year, percent)
Source: Trading Economics

PUBLIC
Figure 8.4: Year on Year Inflation

Source: GSS and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

The Bank’s main measure of core inflation continues to ease. The core inflation rate, which excludes
energy and utility items from the consumer basket, fell to 13.0 percent in June 2025 from 23.1 percent
in December 2024. An assessment of inflation expectations which incorporates surveys of banks,
businesses, and consumers, indicates well-anchored inflation expectations across all economic sectors.

Figure 8.5: Headline vs Core Inflation (%)

Source: GSS and Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation fell sharply to -1.2 percent in June 2025 from 0.7 percent
in May 2025, on account of the 15 percent reduction in transport fares which took effect in May 2025
and the recent appreciation in the Cedi. Monthly food inflation dropped to -0.5 percent in June 2025
from 0.6 percent in May 2025. Similarly, month-on-month non-food inflation dropped significantly to
-1.8 percent from 0.6 percent over the same period.

Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Year on Year Inflation
Headline
Lower Band
Upper Band

Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Headline vs Core Inflation (%)
Core 1 (Excluding Fuel, and Utilities)
Headline Inflation

PUBLIC
Figure 8.6: Month-on-Month Inflation (%)

Source: Ghana Statistical Service


Table 8.1: CPI Components


8.3 Inflation Risk Assessment and Outlook
Headline inflation is expected to decline to 12 percent in the third quarter of 2025 and further down to
the medium-term target of 8 ± 2 percent by the end of 2025, reflecting the impact of monetary policy
tightening, the appreciation of the cedi, and the ongoing fiscal consolidation.

Moreover, supply-side pressures have eased, reducing their contribution to food and headline inflation.
In the outlook, risks to inflation are tilted to the downside. However, upside risks remain, including
broader supply chain challenges, global trade tensions, a 2.5 percent upward adjustment in utility tariffs,
and the introduction of a new GHS 1.0 energy levy on ex-pump prices, which could impact inflation.

Going forward, exchange rate stability is expected to persist, supported by significant improvements in
the external sector. These improvements have led to the accumulation of international reserves, far
exceeding the ECF-supported program target, which will further aid the disinflation process.
Additionally, factors such as a tight monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and stable
crude oil prices could help offset the upside risks to disinflation.
-3
-2
-1

Jun-

Jul-

Aug-

Sep-

Oct-

Nov-

Dec-

Jan-

Feb-

Mar-

Apr-

May-

Jun-

Jul-

Aug-

Sep-

Oct-

Nov-

Dec-

Jan-

Feb-

Mar-

Apr-

May-

Jun-

Headline

Food

Non-food

Monthly Inflation
Weghts
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
(%)
Overall

Food and Beverages

Non-food

Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics

Clothing and footwear

Housing and Utilities

Furnishings, Household Equipment

Health

Transport

Information and Communication

Recreation & Culture

Education

Restaurants and accommodation services

Insurance and Financial services

Personal care, social protection & Miscellaneous services


CPI Components (%)

Source: Ghana Statistical Service

PUBLIC


Decision on the Monetary Policy Rate
Overall, the Committee noted that macroeconomic conditions have significantly improved, inflation
expectations are broadly anchored, external buffers have strengthened, and confidence in the economy
is returning. The July forecast also shows that headline inflation is expected to decline further in the
third quarter of 2025 and trend within the medium-term target of 8±2 percent by the end of 2025, earlier
than initial projections. However, there are upside risks to the inflation outlook, which include potential
supply chain challenges emanating from the global trade tensions, and upward adjustment in utility
tariffs. This notwithstanding, the impact of these risks on inflation are expected to be offset by
appropriately tight monetary policy stance and continued fiscal consolidation.

Given these considerations, the Committee, by a majority decision, voted to lower the Monetary Policy
Rate by 300 basis points to 25.0 percent. Looking ahead, the Committee will continue to assess
incoming data and likely reduce the policy rate further, should the disinflation trend continue. The
Committee remains committed to the price stability mandate, while creating conditions for inclusive
and sustainable growth.

PUBLIC
APPENDIX

Table A.1: Sources of Growth in Total Liquidity (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.2: Sources of Growth in Reserve Money (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations
Appendix 1: Sources of Growth in Total Liquidity (M2+) (millions of Ghana cedis unless otherwise stated)
May-23
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
May-25
Jun-25
1 Net Foreign Assets

Bank of Ghana

Commercial Banks

2 Net Domestic Assets

3 ow: Claims on government (net)

4 ow: Claims on Private sector( Incl. PE's)

BOG OMO Sterilisation Acc.

5 Total Liquidity (M2+)

6 ow: Broad Money Supply (M2)

7 ow: Foreign Currency Deposits(¢million)

Change from previous year (in per cent)
8 Net Foreign Assets

9 Net Domestic Assets

10 ow: Claims on government (net)

11 ow: Claims on Private sector( Incl. PE's)

12 ow: BOG OMO Sterilisation Acc.

12 Total Liquidity (M2+)

13 Broad Money Supply (M2)

14 Foreign Currency Deposits (FCDs)

Cummulative change from previous year end (in per cent)
15 Net Foreign Assets

16 Net Domestic Assets

17 o/w: Claims on government (net)

18 Broad Money(M2+)

Annual per cent contribution to money growth
19 Net Foreign Assets

20 NDA

21 Total Liquidity (M2+)

Memorandum items
22 Reserve Money

23 NFA ($million)

24 Currency ratio

25 FCD/M2+

26 FCD/Total Deposit

27 RM multiplier

Appendix 2: Sources of Growth in Reserve Money (millions of Ghana cedis unless otherwise stated)
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
May-25
Jun-25
1 Net Foreign Assets ( NFA)
(13,750.27)


2 Net Domestic Assets ( NDA)

of which:
3 ow: Claims on government (net)

4 Claims on DMB's (net)
(8502.2)
(9878.4)
(13451.5) (26897.1) (21783.3) (15238.3) (14131.6) (27840.7)
5 OMO Sterilisation Account.
(27273.5)
(24795.4) (16244.5) (21138.2) (18142.9) (35561.2) (60803.2) (75269.7)
6 Reserve Money ( RM)
62343.4
88299.4
110578.3 120771.5 130481.7 143154.1 138175.0 112735.9
7 ow:Currency

8 DMB's reserves

9 Non-Bank deposits

Change from previous year (in per cent)
10 Net Foreign Assets

11 Net Domestic Assets

12 ow: Claims on government (net)

13 Claims on DMB's (net)

14 OMO Sterilisation Account.

15 Reserve Money ( RM)

16 ow:Currency

Cumulative change from previous year end (in per cent)
17 Net Foreign Assets ( NFA)

18 Net Domestic Assets ( NDA)

19 o/w: Claims on government (net)

20 Reserve Money ( RM)

Annual per cent contribution
21 Net Foreign Assets

22 Net Domestic Assets ( NDA)

23 RM growth ( y-o-y)


PUBLIC
Table A.3: DMB’s Credit Allocations (GH¢ Millions, unless otherwise stated)

Source: Bank of Ghana

Table A.4: Asset and Liability Structure of the Banking Sector

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.5: Credit Growth

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


Table A.6: Contingent Liabilities

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

As at end-June .2023
As at end June .2024
As at end-June. 2025
Jun-23
Jun-24
Jun-25
Abs
Percent
Abs
Percent
Abs
Percent
a Public Sector
6,754.31

6,416.98

4,411.57

552.49

8.91

(337.33)

(4.99)

(2,005.41)

(31.25)

b Private Sector
66,370.96

78,061.73

84,752.43

9,210.01

16.11

11,690.77

17.61

6,690.70

8.57

Agric.,For. & Fish.
2,619.62

3,047.99

3,505.61

575.17

28.13

428.37

16.35

457.62

15.01

Export Trade
474.92

577.22

514.08

229.50

93.51

102.30

21.54

(63.14)

(10.94)

Manufacturing
7,739.05

8,986.70

9,405.91

1,704.23

28.24

1,247.65

16.12

419.21

4.66

Trans.,Stor., & Comm.
3,770.45

4,810.42

4,018.45

669.33

21.58

1,039.97

27.58

(791.97)

(16.46)

Mining & Quarrying
2,489.31

2,751.86

2,527.78

1,159.06

87.13

262.54

10.55

(224.08)

(8.14)

Import Trade
4,904.19

7,212.92

7,070.12

2,972.82

153.92

2,308.73

47.08

(142.80)

(1.98)

Construction
6,503.67

7,405.79

7,478.35

539.44

9.04

902.12

13.87

72.56

0.98

Commerce & Finance
9,828.76

11,507.33

13,213.80

(1,097.97)

(10.05)

1,678.57

17.08

1,706.47

14.83

Elect.,Gas & Water
2,606.11

2,275.37

2,255.83

(23.54)

(0.90)

(330.73)

(12.69)

(19.54)

(0.86)

Services
21,235.79

24,890.15

31,810.31

2,151.38

11.27

3,654.36

17.21

6,920.15

27.80

Miscellaneous
4,199.07

4,595.97

2,952.19

330.59

8.55

396.90

9.45

(1,643.78)

(35.77)

c Grand Total
73,125.27

84,478.71

89,164.00

9,762.49

15.41

11,353.44

15.53

4,685.30

5.55

Levels (GH¢ Millions)
Year -On-Year Variation
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Components of Assets (% of Total)
Cash and Due from Banks

Investments

Net Advances

Others

Components of Liabilities and Shareholders' Funds (% of Total)
Total Deposits
65.7

77.4

76.1

74.2

72.9

Total Borrowings
13.2

6.6

7.2

8.4

8.6

Shareholders' Funds
13.1

9.2

10.0

11.3

12.5

Other Liabilities
8.0

6.6

6.5

5.8

5.6

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Jun-24
Jun-25
Public Sector
6,754.31


Private Sector
66,370.96


- Private Enterprises
48,643.78


o/w Foreign
3,219.23


Indigeneous
45,424.55


- Households
16,208.51


Gross Loans

Economic Sector
Gh¢million
y/y growth (%)
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Contingent Liabilities (GH¢million)
21,921.0

19,885.5

25,657.6

20,950.2

16,811.5

Growth (y-o-y)

% of Total Liabilities


PUBLIC
Table A.7: Distribution of Loans and NPLs by Economic Sector (%)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.8: Liquidity Ratios

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations

Table A.9: Profitability Indicators (%)

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


a. Public Sector

i. Government

ii. Public Institutions

iii. Public Enterprises

b. Private Sector

i. Private Enterprises

o/w Foreign

Indigeneous

ii. Households

iii. Others

Share in Total
Credit
Share in
NPLs
Share in
Total Credit
Share in
NPLs
Share in Total
Credit
Share in
NPLs
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Share in Total
Credit
Share in
NPLs
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Liquid Assets (Core) - (GH¢'million)
46,726.4

67,100.0

115,827.0

142,771.0

110,906.3

Liquid Assets (Broad) -(GH¢'million)
127,547.3

156,811.9

222,701.8

277,736.9

272,954.5

Liquid Assets to total deposits (Core)-%
35.6

35.8

47.1

49.3

39.6

Liquid Assets to total deposits (Broad)- %
97.1

83.6

90.6

95.9

97.4

Liquid assets to total assets (Core)- %
23.4

27.7

35.8

36.6

28.9

Liquid assets to total assets (Broad)- %
63.8

64.7

68.9

71.2

71.0

Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Gross Yield

Interest Payable

Spread

Asset Utilitisation

Interest Margin to Total Assets

Interest Margin to Gross income

Profitability Ratio

Return On Equity (%) after tax

Return On Assets (%) before tax


PUBLIC
Table A.10: DMBs’ Income Statement

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


Table A.11: Developments in Offshore Balances

Source: Bank of Ghana Staff Calculations


Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Interest Income
15,092.6

17,980.5

13,905.0

21,647.4

19.1

15.9
20.4
Interest Expenses
(5,211.3)

(6,180.4)

(4,708.8)

(7,457.9)

18.6

16.5
20.7
Net Interest Income
9,881.2

11,800.0

9,196.2

14,189.5

19.4

15.5
20.2
Fees and Commissions (Net)
2,243.4

2,620.1

2,006.0

3,087.5

16.8

26.2
17.8
Other Income
2,805.7

2,352.5

2,022.2

3,580.5

(16.2)

27.8
52.2
Operating Income
14,930.3

16,772.7

13,224.4

20,857.5

12.3

18.8
24.4
Operating Expenses
(6,577.6)

(7,594.1)

(6,174.2)

(9,215.8)

15.5

23.0
21.4
Staff Cost (deduct)
(3,120.0)

(3,813.7)

(3,132.8)

(4,731.0)

22.2

24.0
24.1
Other operating Expenses
(3,457.7)

(3,780.4)

(3,041.5)

(4,484.8)

9.3

22.0
18.6
Net Operating Income
8,352.7

9,178.6

7,050.2

11,641.7

9.9

15.4
26.8
Total Provision (Loan losses,
Depreciation & others)
(1,731.9)

(1,048.2)

(654.2)

(893.0)

(39.5)

(24.2)
(14.8)
Income Before Tax
6,620.8

8,130.4

6,396.1

10,748.7

22.8

21.9
32.2
Tax
(2,320.9)

(2,733.8)

(2,127.7)

(3,594.7)

17.8

21.7
31.5
Net Income
4,299.9

5,396.5

4,268.4

7,154.0

25.5

22.0
32.6
Gross Income
20,141.6

22,953.1

17,933.2

28,315.4

14.0

18.2
23.4
(GH ¢'million)
Y-o-y Growth (%)
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Apr-25
Jun-25
Offshore balances as % to Networth

Annual Growth in Offshore balances (%)

Annual Growth in Nostro Balances (%)

Annual Growth in Placement (%)


PUBLIC

Table A.12: Fiscal indicators
Million Ghana Cedis

2025/2024

Q1+Q2
Q1
Q1+Q2
Q1+Q2
DEVIATION
Y-O-Y

OUTTURN
OUTTURN
OUTTURN
PROG
OVER(+)/
BELOW(-)
GROWTH
Domestic Revenue

74,864.3

30,378.9

98,609.4

101,508.8

(2.9)

31.7
(percent of GDP)
6.4

2.9
7.0 7.3


Domestic expenditure

72,749.2

34,417.9

81,102.6

88,121.5

(8.0)

11.5
(percent of GDP)
6.2

3.3
5.8 6.3


Domestic Primary Balance

2,115.2

(4,039.0)

17,506.8

13,387.3

30.8

727.7
(percent of GDP)
0.2

(0.4)
1.3 1.0


Primary Balance (Commitment)

(4,161.3)

(6,025.4)

15,083.4

5,039.3

199.3

(462.5)
(percent of GDP)

(0.4)

(0.6)
1.1 0.4


Primary Balance (Cash)

(18,307.0)

(15,104.0)

10,303.5

(2,457.1)

(519.3)

(156.3)
(percent of GDP)

(1.6)

(1.4)
0.7

(0.2)


Non-Oil Primary Balance

(24,564.1)

(17,007.7)

6,762.3

(8,658.5)

(178.1)

(127.5)
(percent of GDP)

(2.2)

(1.6)
0.5

(0.6)


Overall Balance (Commitment)

(23,189.8)

(18,588.2)

(10,339.6)

(25,465.4)

(59.4)

(55.4)
(percent of GDP)

(2.0)

(1.8)

(0.7)

(1.8)


Overall Balance (cash, discrepancy)

(37,335.5)

(27,666.8)

(15,119.5)

(32,961.7)

(54.1)

(59.5)
(percent of GDP)

(3.2)

(2.6)

(1.1)

(2.4)


Oil Revenue

6,257.1

1,903.8

3,541.2

6,201.5

(42.9)

(43.4)
(percent of GDP)
0.5

0.2
0.3 0.4


Non-Oil Revenue and Grants

69,845.1

28,510.1

95,798.2

96,375.9

(0.6)

37.2
(percent of GDP)
5.9

2.7
6.8 6.9


Benchmark Oil Revenue

4,455.7

1,116.4

2,750.6

4,780.3

(42.5)

(38.3)
(percent of GDP)
0.4

0.1
0.2 0.3


Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA)

3,119.0

781.5

1,925.4

3,346.2

(42.5)

(38.3)
(percent of GDP)
0.3

0.1
0.1 0.2

Nominal GDP

1,176,219.9

1,050,978.3

1,400,006.1

1,400,006.1


Non-Oil Nominal GDP

1,128,205.1

979,407.7

1,350,563.8

1,350,563.8


Source: Ministry of Finance

PUBLIC
Table A.13: Headline and Core Inflation

Combined
Food
Non-food
Combined
Food
Non-food
Core 1
Core 2
Core 3
Core 4

42.7
57.3


Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

Source: Ghana Statistical Service
Monthly Changes in CPI (%)
Annual Changes in CPI (%)
Core Inflation (%)
Bank of Ghana