ECONOMIC REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2018


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
economy, as well as international economic issues of interest. The Report is directed at
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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter

Contents


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report Third Quarter


Text Tables

Appendix Tables


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Figures


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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

1.0 Summary1
The Bank maintained a non-expansionary monetary policy stance in
August 2018, aimed at further curbing inflationary pressure. Broad
money supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, fell by 2.4 per cent
to N33,607.64 billion at end-August 2018, in contrast to the growth of
2.0 per cent at end-June 2018. The development reflected, mainly,
the 3.4 per cent decrease in domestic credit (net) of the banking
system. Over the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply,
(M3), grew by 7.9 per cent, due to 18.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent
increase in foreign assets (net) and other assets (net) of the banking
system, respectively. On quarter-on-quarter basis, narrow money
supply (M1), fell by 6.9 per cent, due, to 2.3 per cent and 7.7 per
cent decrease in its currency outside banks and demand deposits
components, respectively.
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while lending
rates trended downwards in the review quarter. With the exception
of the 1-month and 12-months deposit rates, which rose by 0.28 and
0.07 percentage point to 9.12 per cent and 10.07 per cent,
respectively, all other deposit rates of various maturities fell from a
range 3.75 – 10.67 per cent to 3.65 – 9.85 per cent at end-September
2018. The average savings rate remain unchanged at 4.07 per cent,
same as at the end of the second quarter of 2018, while the
average term deposit rate fell by 0.20 percentage points to 8.52 per
cent at end of the review quarter. The average prime and maximum
lending rates declined by 0.46 percentage point and 0.48
percentage point to 16.70 per cent and 30.95 per cent, respectively.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average term
deposits and maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.28 percentage
points to 22.43 percentage points at end-September 2018. Likewise,
the spread between the weighted average savings and the
maximum lending rates, narrowed by 0.48 percentage points to
26.87 percentage points. The weighted average inter-bank call rate
fell by 7.02 percentage points to 5.92 per cent at end-September
2018.
The total value of money market assets outstanding increased by 1.4
per cent to N11,848.96 billion, at end-September 2018. The
development was attributed to the increase in commercial papers,
banker’s acceptance and FGN Bonds in the review quarter.
Developments on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were generally
bearish.

1 Data on monetary aggregates, government spending and foreign
exchange flows are provisional and subject to changes


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Federally-collected revenue, at N2,524.59 billion, in the third quarter
of 2018, was 24.0 per cent lower than the proportionate budget
estimate, but was 8.9 per cent above the receipts in the preceding
quarter. The development relative to budget estimate was due to
the shortfall in receipts from bth oil and non-oil revenue in the review
quarter. Federal Government estimated retained revenue and total
expenditure were N950.61 billion and N1,050.94 billion, respectively,
resulting in an estimated deficit of N100.33 billion in the third quarter
of 2018.
Despite the few cases of flash flooding, which affected farmlands in
parts of the country, agricultural activities were generally boosted in
the third quarter of 2018, as a result of widespread rainfall across the
country. Farming activities were dominated by harvesting of early
maturing crops and breeding of poultry birds in anticipation of end
of year sales. The end-period inflation, on year-on-year and 12month moving average bases for the review period were estimated
at 11.28 per cent and 13.16 per cent, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to
US$12.95 billion and US$16.93 billion, respectively, resulting in a net
outflow of US$3.98 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the
authorised dealers amounted to US$11.88 billion. The average
exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar depreciated to
N306.03/US$ and N362.42/US$ at the inter-bank segment and the
Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) Window respectively, while at the BDC
segment, it appreciated to N359.21/US$ in the review quarter. The
external reserves decreased by 9.6 per cent to US$42.61 billion as at
September 28, 2018.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 99.38 mbd
and 99.09 mbd, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018. Nigeria’s
crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids,
was estimated at an average of 1.84 mbd or 169.28 million barrels
(mb) in the review quarter. The average price of Nigeria’s reference
crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), was US$76.36 per barrel, compared
with US$75.43 per barrel in the second quarter of 2018.
Major international developments of importance to the domestic
economy in the review quarter included: the international Monetary
Fund’s (IMF) Mid-Year Staff Consultations with Nigeria held from June
27- July 9, 2018; the Afreximbank Annual Meetings (AAM), held in
Abuja, Nigeria from July 11 – 14, 2018; and the 2018 Mid-Year
Statutory Meetings of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), West
African Monetary Agency (WAMA) and the West African Institute for
Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) held in Abuja,
Nigeria from September 6 – 14, 2018.


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2.0 Financial Sector Developments2
Over the level at end-June 2018, broad money supply (M3), fell by
2.4 per cent, reflecting the 3.4 per cent decrease in domestic credit
(net) of the banking system. Narrow money supply (M1) fell by 6.9
per cent due to decrease in both currency outside banks and
demand deposits components. Developments in banks’ deposit
rates were mixed, while the lending rates trended downward in the
review quarter. The value of money market assets outstanding rose
above the level in the preceding quarter. Activities on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) were generally bearish in the third quarter of
2018.
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
The Bank’s Monetary policy stance remained, largely, nonexpansionary in the review period. Consequently, broad
money supply (M3), on quarter-on-quarter basis, fell by 2.4 per
cent to N33,607.64 billion as at end-August, 2018, in contrast to
the growth of 2.0 per cent and 5.2 per cent at end-June 2018
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The
development reflected the 3.4 per cent contraction in
domestic credit (net), which more than offset the respective
increase of 0.6 per cent in foreign assets (net) and other assets
(net) of the banking system. Similarly, narrow money supply
(M1) fell by 6.9 per cent, relative to the level at end-June 2018
and reflected the 2.3 per cent and 7.7 per cent decrease in
currency outside banks and demand deposits, respectively.
Over the level at end-December 2017, broad money supply,
(M3), grew by 7.9 per cent at end-August 2018, compared
with the growth of 8.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent at end of the
second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. The development reflected the increase of 18.6
per cent and 6.2 per cent in foreign assets (net) and other
assets (net) of the banking system, respectively.
Over the level at end-December 2017, narrow money supply
(M1) fell by 6.5 per cent, compared with the 4.3 per cent
decline at the end of the preceding quarter. This reflected
the decline in both its currency outside banks and demand
deposits components.

2 All monetary aggregate numbers are provisional and subject to revision
Grwoth in key
monetary aggregates
were moderate in the
review period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

At end-August 2018, quasi-money rose by 3.4 per cent to
N14,411.19 billion, compared with the increase of 5.4 per cent
and 1.4 per cent at end-June 2018 and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. The development reflected the
increase in time and savings deposits of commercial banks.
Relative to the level at end-December 2017, quasi-money
grew by 11.2 per cent at end-August 2018, compared with the
increase of 8.9 per cent at end of the second quarter of 2018,
but in contrast to the decline of 2.9 per cent at the end of the
corresponding period of 2017. The development was due to
the increase in time and savings deposits of banks (Figure 1,
Table 1).
Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M3)3

Source: CBN
Aggregate credit to the domestic economy, on quarter-onquarter basis fell by 3.4 per cent to N24,848.63 billion at endAugust 2018, compared with the decline of 6.3 per cent and
0.1 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
reflected, wholly, the 32.2 per cent decrease in net claims on
the Federal Government. Over the level at end-December

3 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).
-15
-10
-5

-15
-10
-5

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
August-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM3 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM3 (LHS)


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2017, aggregate credit to the domestic economy fell by 4.2
per cent, compared with the decline of 1.4 per cent and 0.1
per cent at end-June 2018 and the corresponding period of
2017, respectively. The development reflected, mainly, the
decline in net claims on the Federal Government.
Net claims on the Federal Government, at end-August 2018,
fell by 32.2 per cent to N2,378.39 billion, compared with the
decrease of 33.4 per cent at the end of the preceding
quarter. The development was due, wholly, to the significant
fall in loans to the Federal Government by CBN during the
review period. Over the level at end-December 2017, net
claims on the Federal Government fell by 34.7 per cent at
end-August 2018, compared with the decline of 9.7 per cent
and 1.1 per cent at the end of the second quarter of 2018
and
corresponding
period
of
2017,
respectively.
The
development was due, wholly, to the decline in the banking
system’s holdings of Government securities.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, banking system’s credit to the
private sector grew by 1.2 per cent to N22,470.24 billion at
end-August 2018, in contrast to the decline of 0.4 per cent
and 0.1 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
was due to the 1.7 per cent and 0.7 per cent increase in
claims on the core private sector and claims on state and
local governments, respectively. Over the level at endDecember 2017, banking system’s credit to the private sector
grew by 0.8 per cent, in constrat to the decline of 0.04 per
cent at end of the second quarter of 2018. The development
was due to the rise in claims on the core private sector and
claims on state and local governments, respectively (Figure
2,Table 1).


Banking system’s
credit to the Federal
Government fell in the
review period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy4

Source: CBN
Foreign assets (net) of the banking system grew by 0.6 per
cent to N18,411.93 billion at end-August 2018, compared with
the respective growth of 12.4 per cent and 14.0 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2017. The development was attributed to the 14.4
per cent and 0.4 per cent increase in foreign asset holdings of
banks and the CBN, respectively. Over the level at endDecember 2017, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
grew by 18.6 per cent at end-August 2018, compared with the
growth of 18.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent at end-June 2018
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. This
reflected the 18.9 per cent and 8.3 per cent increase in the
foreign assets holdings of CBN and banks, respectively.
At end-August 2018, other assets (net) of the banking system
grew by 0.6 per cent to negative N9,652.92 billion. This was in
contrast to the decline of 3.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent at the
end of the second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. The development was attributed
to the increase in unclassified assets of DMB’s. Over the level
at end- December 2017, other assets (net) of the banking
system grew by 6.2 per cent, compared with the respective
increase of 2.0 per cent and 5.9 per cent at the end of the
second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of
2017.

4 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP, CCG


Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Aug-18
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
Foreign assets (net)
of the banking
system grew at the
end of the review
period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Aug-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


Source: CBN
*figures are provisional
2.2
Currency-in-circulation and Deposits at the
CBN

Currency-in-circulation (CIC) at end-August 2018, rose by 1.8
per cent to N1,928.74 billion over the level at the end of the
second quarter of 2018, compared with the decline of 6.8 per
cent at end-June 2018. The development relative to the
preceding quarter reflected, mainly, the increase in its
currency outside banks component.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N15,099.50 billion at
end-August 2018, indicating a 11.6 per cent increase above
the level at end-June 2018. The development was as a result
of the rise in the deposits of the Federal Government and
banks, while deposits of the private sector declined. Of the
total deposits at the CBN, the shares of the Federal
Government, banks and private sector deposits were 49.4 per
cent, 31.5 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively.
Reserve money rose by 3.2 per cent to N6,688.52 billion at
end-August 2018, in contrast with the decline of 5.9 per cent
at end-June 2018. The development reflected the increase in
total bank reserves.
2.3
Money Market Developments
The money market was generally stable in the third quarter of
2018. Liquidity was buoyed by inflow from fiscal injections,
Federal Government (FGN) Bonds, Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs)
and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bills. Withdrawals arising
from CBN interventions through Open Market Operations
The money market
was relatively stable
during the review
period .
Reserve money (RM)
rose at the end of the
review period.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

(OMO), however, moderated liquidity. In addition, settlement
for the sales of Government securities and foreign exchange
impacted on market liquidity. Overall, banks continued to
access the intra-day and standing facilities window to meet
their short-term liquidity needs during the review quarter.
Total value of money market assets outstanding at the end of
the third quarter of 2018 was N11,848.96 billion, showing an
increase of 1.36 per cent, in contrast to 3.02 per cent fall, at
the end of the second quarter of 2018. The development was
attributed to the significant increase in commercial papers,
banker’s acceptance and FGN Bond, outstanding during the
review quarter.
2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Developments in banks’ deposit rates were mixed, while
lending rates trended downwards in the third quarter of 2018.
With the exception of 1-month deposit rates and 12-month
deposit rates, which rose by 0.28 and 0.07 percentage point
to 9.12 per cent and 10.07 per cent, respectively, all other
deposits rates of various maturities fell from a range of 3.75 –
10.67 per cent to 3.65 – 9.85 per cent at end-September 2018.
The average savings rate remain unchanged at 4.07 per cent,
same as at the end of the second quarter of 2018, while the
average term deposit rate fell by 0.20 percentage point to
8.52 per cent at end-September 2018.
The average prime and maximum lending rates declined by
0.46 percentage point and 0.48 percentage point to 16.70 per
cent and 30.95 per cent, respectively, at end-Spetmebr 2018.
Consequently, the spread between the weighted average
term deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.28
percentage point to 22.43 per cent at end-September 2018.
Similarly, the spread between the average savings and the
maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.48 percentage point
to 26.87 per cent. With the headline inflation at 11.28 per cent
at end-September 2018, all deposit rates were negative in real
terms, while lending rates were positive.
At the inter-bank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 12.94 per cent at end-June
2018, fell by 7.02 percentage points to 5.92 per cent at endSeptember 2018. Similarly, the Nigeria inter-bank offered rate
Inter-bank call rate
fell in Q3 2018.
Banks’ lending rates
trended downwards,
while deposit rates
exhibited mixed
developments.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

(NIBOR) for the 30-day tenor fell from 13.03 per cent at endJune 2018 to 12.66 per cent at end-September 2018. Also, the
weighted average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment
fell by 1.32 percentage points to 9.31 per cent at the end of
the review quarter (Figure 3, Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Source: CBN
Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending

Source: CBN

2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by banks amounted
to N23.33 billion in the third quarter, compared with N6.29
billion at end-June 2018. The development was due to the
increase in investments in CP by the merchant banks during
the review quarter. Thus, CP constituted 0.20 per cent of the
total value of money market assets outstanding during the
review period, compared with 0.05 per cent in the preceding
quarter.


Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) outstanding stood at N10.77
billion in the third quarter of 2018, compared with N3.31 billion
at the end of the second quarter of 2018. The development
was attributed to investments in BAs by commercial banks
during the review quarter. Consequently, BAs accounted for
0.09 per cent of the total value of money market assets
outstanding at end-September 2018, compared with 0.03 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter.

2.3.4 Open Market Operations
The Bank sustained its intervention through direct Open Market
Operation (OMO) auction during the review quarter. The
tenors to maturity of the instruments ranged from 49 days to
364 days. Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted
were N7,000.00 billion, N3,869.65 billion, and N3,327.51 billion,
respectively. The bid rates ranged from 10.0000 per cent to
15.5000 per cent, while the stop rates ranged from 10.0000 per
cent to 13.5000 per cent. Repayment of matured CBN bills
amounted to N4,997.52 billion, translating to a net injection of
N1,670.01 billion.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the Government securities market, NTBs of 91- 182- and 364day tenors, amounting to N1,123.33 billion, N1,555.00 billion
and N983.77 billion were offered, subscribed to and allotted,
respectively, at the auctions held in the third quarter of 2018,
on behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO). Total
subscription and allotment at the 91-day auction, were N73.11
billion and N59.07 billion, respectively. The bid rates ranged
from 9.6500 per cent to 14.0000 per cent, while the stop rates
ranged from 10.0000 per cent to 11.0000 per cent.
For the 182-day auction, total subscription and allotment were
N198.75 billion and N191.23 billion, respectively. The bid rates
ranged from 10.0000 per cent to 14.4000 per cent, while the
stop rates ranged from 10.4000 per cent to 12.3000 per cent.
Total subscription and allotment at the 364-day auction were
N1,283.13 billion and N733.47 billion, respectively. The bill rates
ranged from 10.7500 per cent to 20.0000 per cent, while stop
rates ranged from 11.3000 per cent to 13.5000 per cent. The
bid to cover ratio was 1.58.
Banks’ holdings of
BAs increased in
Q3 of 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

2.3.6
Bonds Market
Tranches of the 5- 7- and 10-year FGN Bonds were re-opened
for sale in the third quarter of 2018. The term to maturity of the
bonds ranged from 4 years, 7 months to 9 years, 7 months.
Total amount offered, subscribed to and allotted were
N270.00 billion, N356.31 billion and N203.34 billion, respectively.
The bid rates on all tenors ranged from 12.5000 per cent to
16.5000 per cent, while the marginal rates were from 13.6900
per cent to 15.2459 per cent. The bid to cover ratio was 1.75.
Allotment on non-competitive basis amounted to N70.4 billion.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
The banks continued to access the CBN’s Standing Facilities
window to square up their positions either by borrowing from
the standing lending facility (SLF) window or depositing excess
reserves at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window of the
CBN at the end of each business day. Total request for the
Standing Lending Facility (SLF) inclusive of Intra-day lending
facilities (ILF) that was converted to overnight repo during the
review quarter stood at N956.64 billion, compared with
N3,960.24 billion in the preceding quarter. Daily average
transaction value amounted to N19.13 billion in 50 transactiondays, with total interest earned at N3.07 billion.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N5,556.63 billion, with daily average of N91.09
billion, in contrast to N5,988.06 billion, in the second quarter of
2018. The cost incurred on SDF in the review quater amounted
to N1.99 billion, compared with N2.15 billion in the preceding
quarter.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
The total assets and liabilities of the commercial banks stood
at N36,267.61 billion at end-August 2018, representing 0.8 per
cent increase over the level at end-June 2018. The funds were
sourced, largely, from mobilisaion of unclassified and foreign
liabilities, and realisation of claims on Central Bank. The funds
were used, mainly, for payment of matured demand deposits,
accretion to reserves and extension of credit to the private
sector.
At N19,306.46 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy,
at end-August 2018 showed an increase of 1.0 per cent
Tranches of FGN Bonds
of various maturities
were reopened for sale
in the Q3 of 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

above the level at end-June 2018. The development
reflected, the rise in claims on both the Federal Government
and the private sector in the review period.
Total specified liquid assets of the banks was N11,264.34 billion
at end-August 2018, representing 54.5 per cent of the total
current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio was 2.0
percentage points and 24.5 percentage points above the
levels at end-June 2018 and the stipulated minimum ratio of
30.0 per cent, respectively. The loans-to-deposit ratio, at 65.89
per cent, was 1.29 percentage points higher than the level at
end-June 2018 but was 14.11 percentage points below the
prescribed maximum of 80.0 per cent.
2.5
Capital Market Developments
2.5.1
Secondary Market
Despite the impressive rally in the first half of 2018, gradual
normalisation of monetary policy in the advanced economies,
particularly in the United States, continued to be a major
threat to stability of the capital market. Market sentiments
remained uncertain, leading to heightened volatility, as
gradual outflow of portfolio investments and investors’ strong
profit-taking persisted. Consequently, developments on the
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was bearish during the third
quarter of 2018. Aggregate volume and value of traded
securities fell by 29.5 per cent and 42.9 per cent to 16.3 billion
shares and N205.0 billion in 216,568 deals, respectively,
compared with 23.1 billion shares and N359.2 billion in 277,811
deals, in the second quarter of 2018.
Activities in the Financial Services sector (measured by
volume) led the chart with 11.6 billion shares valued at N125.4
billion and traded in 123,868 deals, compared with 16.0 billion
shares valued at N178.9 billion and traded in 136,315 deals in
the second quarter of 2018. This constituted 71.3 per cent and
61.2 per cent of the total volume and value of traded
securities, compared with 69.3 per cent and 49.8 per cent,
respectively, in the second quarter of 2018. The banking subsector (measured by volume) was the most active in the
review quarter.


Liquidity ratio was
above the prescribed
minimum, while the
Loan-to-deposit ratio
was below the
prescribed maximum
in August of 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities


Source: NSE
Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Volume (Billion)
18.5
15.3


16.3
Value (N Billion)
151.4 112.8

360.4
339.4 439.7

Source: NSE
2.5.2
New Issues Market/Supplementary Listings
There was one (1) new and one (1) supplementary equity
listing in the third quarter of 2018.
Table 4: New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing
1 Notore Chemical & Industries Plc
1,612,066,200
Ordinary Shares
New Listing
2 Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc
64,208,713
Dividend
Suppllementary
Source: NSE

2.5.3
Market Capitalisation
Heightened volatility, on account of the general uncertainties,
and persistent profit-taking dampened the performance of
quoted securities on the Nigeria Stock Exchange during the
review period. The aggregate market capitalisation of all
listed securities (Equities and Debts) fell by 6.8 per cent from
N23.9 trillion at end-June 2018 to N22.3 trillion at endSeptember, 2018. Similarly, market capitalisation of the
equities segment fell by 13.9 per cent to N11.9 trillion and
constituted
53.6
per
cent
of
the
aggregate
market

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

capitalisation, compared with N13.7 trillion and 57.8 per cent
at end-June 2018.
2.5.4 NSE All-Share Index
Developments in the sectoral indices reflected decline in the
performance of quoted stocks on the Exchange in the review
period. The All-Share Index fell by 14.4 per cent to close at
32,766.37 at end-September 2018, below the level at endJune 2018. Similarly, all sectoral indices fell below the levels in
the third quarter of 2018. Listed companies in the industrial
sub-sector recorded the most loss, as the NSE-Industrial index
fell significantly by 23.9 per cent to 1,528.69, followed by NSEConsumer Goods, and NSE-Pension indices which declined by
18.3 per cent and 17.7 per cent, to their respective values of
758.36 and 1226.16 at end-September 2018. Similarly, the NSEInsurance, NSE-AseM, NSE-Lotus, NSE-Banking, NSE-Premium
and NSE-Oil and Gas, fell by 16.7 per cent, 15.9 per cent, 13.8
per cent, 13.6 per cent, 13.4 per cent and 10.9 per cent to
125.27, 797.69, 2,262.98, 411.25, 2,355.35 and 287.69 at endSeptember 2018, respectively.
Figure 5: Market Capitalisation and All-Share Index

Source: NSE

Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Market Capitalization (N trillion)
16.39
16.2
16.5


All-Share Index (Equities)
28,335.40

26,874.62

25,516.34

33,117.48

35,439.98

38,243.19

41,504.51

38,278.55

32,766.37

Source: NSE

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations5
Federally collected revenue in the third quarter of 2018 fell
below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 24.0
per cent, but rose above the receipt in the preceding quarter
by 8.9 per cent. Federal Government retained revenue for the
review quarter was N950.61 billion, while total estimated
expenditure amounted to N1,050.94 billion, resulting in an
estimated deficit of N100.33 billion.

3.1
Federation Account Operations
At N2,524.59 billion, federally-collected revenue in the third
quarter of 2018, was lower than the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate of N3,321.36 billion by 24.0 per cent. It,
however, rose above the receipts in the preceding quarter by
8.9 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue
(gross) relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate
was attributed to the shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue
components in the review period (Figure 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue


5 All figures on government revenue and expenditure are provisional and subject to changes\

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
N'Billion
Oil Revenue
Non-Oil Revenue
Gross federally -
collected
revenue fell by
24.0 per cent
below the
proportionate
budget estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N Billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)
2,315.84

2,008.87

2,083.66

2,318.25

2,524.59

Oil Revenue
1,270.62

1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

Non-Oil Revenue
1,045.22

782.83

795.60

920.19

1,130.39

Source:Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional

Gross oil receipt, at N1,394.19 billion or 55.2 per cent of the
total revenue, was below the proportionate quarterly budget
estimate by 27.4 per cent. It also fell marginally below the
receipts in the second quarter of 2018 by 0.3 per cent. Despite
the increase in crude oil price, oil revenue declined relative to
the proportionate budget owing to shortfalls in crude oil
production and exports, arising from leakages and shutins/shut-downs at some NNPC terminals (Figure 7, Table 7).

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Oil R evenue Gro ss
1,270.62

1,226.04

1,288.06

1,398.06

1,394.19

Crude oil/Gas Sales
345.53

236.69

98.21

109.32

104.49

PPT/Royalties
489.41

666.10

926.33

841.03

914.56

Others
435.69

323.24

263.51

447.71

375.14

Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
Non-oil revenue, at N1,130.39 billion or 44.8 per cent of total,
was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of
N1,400.74 billion by 19.3 per cent. It was, however, above the
level in the preceding quarter by 22.8 per cent. The lower nonoil revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
N'Billion
Crude oil/Gas Sales
PPT/Royalties
Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

estimate was due to the shortfalls in receipt from Federal
Government Independent Revenue and VAT in the review
period (Figure 8, Table 8).
Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and Its Components


Table 8: Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N Billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Non-Oil Revenue
1,045.22

782.83

795.60

920.19

1,130.39

Value-Added Tax (VAT)
248.89

253.46

277.26

264.00

279.69

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
543.40

297.56

256.86

315.14

510.79

Customs & Excise Duties
164.15

169.05

158.42

169.60

181.06

Others/1
88.78

62.76

103.06

171.45

158.85

1/Includes FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation Account Levies
(Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Source: Federal Ministry of finance
* All figures are provisional

After statutory deductions and transfers of N396.91 billion and
N427.36 billion, respectively, a net sum of N1,700.32 billion was
retained in the Federation account. Of this amount, the
Federal Government received N824.40 billion, while State and
Local governments received N418.15 billion and N 322.37
billion, respectively. The balance of N135.41 billion was
transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among
the oil prodcuing states.
Similarly, the Federal Government received N40.28 billion,
while the State and Local governments received N134.25
billion and N93.98 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool
Account.

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
N'Billion
Corporate Tax
Customs & Excise Duties
Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Others
The sum of N 1,700.32
billion
of
the
gross
federally-collected
revenue was distributed
among the three tiers of
government
and
the
13.0% Derivation Fund
for oil producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 9: Summary of Federally-Collected Revenue Deductions and Transfers (Naira Billion)*
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Total Deductions 1/
523.70

376.63

117.24

287.28

396.91

Oil Rev enue Deductions

Non-Oil Rev enue Deductions

Total Transfers
327.72

306.08

369.52

424.89

427.36

Federal Gov t. Ind. Rev enue

VAT Pool Account

Others 2/

1/ Refer to Table 1 for breakdown of deductions
2/Includes Federation and Non-Federation Special Levies, Education Tax & NITDEF

Source: Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) and Federal Ministry of Finance
* All figures are provisional
The sum of N7.32 billion was also shared as non-oil excess
revenue from which the Federal Government received N3.86
billion, while the State and Local governments received N1.96
billion and N1.51billion, respectively. In addition, Exchange
Gain, amounting to N67.04 billion was shared as follows:
Federal Government, N30.73 billion; State government, N15.58
billion; and Local government, N12.01 billion. The balance of
N8.71 billion was transferred to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for
distribution among the oil-producing states. Furthermore, the
sum of N12.00 billion was shared as additional NNPC Revenue
from which Federal, State and Local governments received
N5.50 billion, N2.79 billion, and N2.15 billion, respectively. The
balance of N1.56 was distributed among the oil-producing
states.
Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the
three tiers of government in the third quarter of 2018
amounted
to
N2,055.18
billion,
compared
with
the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,829.08 billion.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government
3.2.1
The Federal Government
Federal Government retained revenue for the third quarter of
2018 was estimated at N950.61 billion. This was below the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 49.7 per cent, but
exceeded receipts in the review quarter by 6.0 per cent. Of
the total revenue, Federation Account accounted for 86.7 per
cent, while Federal Government Independent Revenue, VAT,
Exchange Gain, NNPC Refund and Excess Non-oil accounted
for 4.8, 4.2, 3.2, 0.6 and 0.5 per cent, respectively (Figure 9).
At N950.61 billion, the
estimated FGN retained
revenue was 49.7 per
cent
lower
than
the
proportionate
quarterly
budget estimate .


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue


Table 10: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N Billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Retained Revenue
990.21

1,265.75

902.64

896.74

950.61

Expenditure
1,652.00

1,956.77

1,599.76

988.91

1,050.94

Current Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(307.49)

(192.05)

(372.30)

41.16

84.39

Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(48.58)

(272.74)

86.88

364.36

411.97

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(661.79)

(691.02)

(697.11)

(92.17)

(100.33)

Source: Fiscal Liquidity Assessment Committee (FLAC), Ministry of Finance & the Office of the Accountant General
of the Federation
*All figures are provisional
The estimated Federal Government expenditure for the third
quarter of 2018 stood at N1,050.94 billion and was below the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,376.93 billion
by 55.8 per cent. It was, however, above the level in the
preceding quarter by 6.3 per cent. A breakdown of the total
expenditure
showed
that
the
recurrent
component
accounted for 82.4 per cent, while capital and statutory
transfers accounted for 12.5 and 5.1 per cent, repectively. A
further breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that
the non-debt component accounted for 40.9 per cent, while
debt service payments was 59.1 per cent (Figure 10).
Federation Acct.
86.7%
VAT Pool Acct.
4.2%
FGN Ind. Rev.
4.8%
Exchange Gain
3.2%
NNPC Refund
0.6%
Excess Non-Oil
0.5%


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 10: Federal Government Expenditure

Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in an estimated deficit of N100.33 billion, compared with the
proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N488.62 billion.
3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
At N718.41 billion, the total allocation to state governments
from the Federation Account, including the 13.0% Derivation
Fund and the VAT Pool Account was lower than the
proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 28.9 per cent. A
breakdown showed that receipts from the Federation
Account was N584.15 billion (81.3%), while the share from VAT
pool account stood at N134.25 billion (18.7%). The receipts
from both the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts fell below
the proportionate budget estimate by 29.2 and 27.5 per cent,
respectively.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total allocations to local governments from the Federation
and VAT Pool Accounts in the third quarter of 2018 stood at
N432.02 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly
budget estimate by 26.6 per cent. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N338.04 billion
(78.2%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N93.98 billion
(21.8%).


Recurrent
82.4%
Capital
12.5%
Transfers
5.1%
Fiscal operations of
the FG resulted in an
estimated deficit of
N100.33 billion in Q3
2018.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
As a result of the widespread rainfall across the country, there was a
boost in agricultural activities in the review quarter, involving harvest
of, mainly, early maturing crops. In the livestock sub-sector, farmers
continued with the breeding of poultry birds and fattening of cattle
in anticipation of end of year sales. End-period inflation, on year-onyear and 12-month moving average bases for the third quarter of
2018 were estimated at 11.16 and 13.10 per cent, respectively.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
Agricultural activities were boosted in the third quarter of 2018,
as a result of widespread rainfall across the country. There
were, however, few cases of flash flooding, which affected
farmlands in some parts of the country. Furthermore,
incidences of farmers/herders clashes in some parts of
Adamawa, Benue, and Borno States during the review period
also affected agricultural activities adversely.
Farming activities in the country, during the quarter, involved
mainly early harvest of yam, maize, rice, groundnut, potatoes
cassava and other early maturing crops. In the livestock subsector, farmers continued with the breeding of poultry birds
and fattening of cattle in anticipation of end of year sales.
4.2
Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme
A total of N1,422.4 million was guaranteed to 12,524 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the third quarter of 2018. The amount represented an increase
of 53.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. Sub-sectoral analysis showed that: food crops
obtained the largest share (N765.6 million or 53.8 per cent),
guaranteed to 7,338 beneficiaries; mixed crop sub-sector
(N236.5 million or 16.6 per cent), guaranteed to 3,316
beneficiaries; livestock, (N189.7 million or 13.3 per cent)
guaranteed to 690 beneficiaries; and cash crop, N109.5
million (7.7 per cent), guaranteed to 665 beneficiaries.
Fisheries had N98.0 million (6.9 per cent) guaranteed to 403
beneficiaries; and “others”, N23.2 million (1.6 per cent),
guaranteed to 112 beneficiaries.
Analysis by state showed that 33 states and the Federal
Capital Territory benefited from the Scheme with the highest


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

and lowest sums of N210.8 million (14.8 per cent) and N0.9
million (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to Adamawa and Bayelsa
states, respectively.
4.3 Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS)
At end-September 2018, total amount released by the CBN
under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
from inception to the participating banks for disbursement
stood at N577.34 billion for 568 projects (Table 11). Of the total
number of projects, 34 were in respect of state governments.


4.4
Industrial Production6
Activities in the industrial sector showed improvements during
the third quarter of 2018, on account of expansion, and
increased employment, output and new orders in the
manufacturing sub-sector. Slowdown in prices of input also
contributed to increased activities. Thus, industrial production
in the review quarter indicated a marginal increase over the
level in the preceding quarter. At 105.9 (2010=100), the
estimated index of industrial production in the review quarter,
rose by 0.6 per cent above the level in the preceding quarter.
The increase reflected, mainly, improved activities in the
manufacturing sub-sector.

6 Indices are staff estimates and subject to changes and revision
Industrial activities
improved in the
review quarter due to
increased new orders
and slowdown in
input prices.
Table 11: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amt Disbursed (N billion)
Number of Projects

Access Bank Plc
36.66

Citibank Plc
3.00

Diamond Baqnk Plc
4.85

ECOBANK
6.38

FCMB Plc.
15.53

Fidelity Bank Plc
21.67

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
42.89

GTBank Plc
39.85

Heritage Bank Plc
6.82

Keystone Bank
26.05

Jaiz Bank Plc
0.00

Skye Bank Plc
13.77

Stanbic IBTC Bank
27.66

Sterling Bank Plc
72.17

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
28.91

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
81.06

Unity Bank Plc
25.18

Wema Bank
2.89

Zenith Bank
120.16

Suntrust Bank Ltd
1.85

TOTAL
577.34

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

The estimated index of manufacturing production in the third
quarter of 2018, at 176.1 (2010=100), showed a marginal
increase of 0.1 per cent, compared with the level in the
preceding quarter. The improvement was due to increased
production activities on account of new orders and lower
input prices. Capacity utilisation in the sub-sector remained at
54.6 per cent, same as in the preceding quarter (Figure11).
Figure11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Source: Staff Estimate

The estimated index of mining production in the third quarter
of 2018, at 73.7 (2010=100), fell by 0.4 per cent, below the level
at end-June 2018. The decline reflected the fall in crude oil
and gas production (Figure 12, Table 12).
Electricity generation improved during the review quarter. At
3,358.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity generation rose
by 3.32 per cent, compared with the level at the end of the
second quarter of 2018. The increase was attributed to the
increased gas supply to thermal stations and higher water
level at the hydro stations.
At 3,098.0 mw/h, average estimated electricity consumption
rose by 1.74 per cent, above the level at end of the
preceding quarter. The increase in electricity consumption
was attributed to increased electricity generation.

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Percent
Average electricity
generation and
consumption improved
in the review quarter.
Industrial capacity
utilisation stood at
54.6 per cent in the
review quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 12: Index of Industrial Production (2010=100) 7

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Source: Staff Estimate

Table 12: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation Rate

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining
92.93
69.63
79.8

73.7
Capacity Utilisation (%)

Source: Staff Estimate
4.5
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.84 mbd or 169.28 million barrels
(mb) during the review quarter. This represented a marginal
decline of 0.01 mbd or 0.5 per cent, compared with 1.85 mbd
or 168.35 million barrels at the end of the second quarter of
2018. The estimated decline in production was attributed,
largely, to the ongoing outages on the Trans-Ramos pipeline
and the force majeure on exports of Bonny light.
Crude oil export averaged 1.39 mbd or 128.8 mb, representing
a decline of 0.7 per cent below 1.40 mbd or 127.4 mb in the
preceding quarter. Allocation of crude oil for domestic
consumption was 0.45 mbd or 40.95 million barrels during the
period under review.

7 Index measurement (2010=100) from first quarter 2015
Crude oil and natural
gas production fell in the
third quarter of 2018.
Crude oil export
fell in Q3 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the
Bonny Light (37° API), rose to US$76.36/b in the third quarter
2018, from US$75.43/b in the preceding quarter. This
represented quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 per cent. The
rise in oil price was attributed to the escalating geopolitical
tensions, particularly, news on Iran production outages,
disruption of production in Libya and Saudi Arabia’s
suspension of crude oil shipments through its major shipping
lane. The UK Brent at US$74.81/b and the Forcados at
US$76.41/b exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light. The WTI,
however, fell to US$54.98/b from US$60.23/b in the second
quarter of 2018.
The average price of OPEC basket of fifteen selected crude
streams was US$74.00/b in the third quarter of 2018. This
represented an increase of 2.9 per cent and 48.1 per cent,
compared with US$71.88/b and US$49.97/b recorded in the
second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively (Figure 13, Table 13).
Figure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters

Table 13: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


Source: Reuters

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket
With the exception of the
WTI, the average prices
of all other crude oil
variants rose in the
international crude oil
market in Q3 2018,.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

4.6
Consumer Prices8
The all-items composite Consumer Price Index (CPI), at endSeptember 2018, was at 268.4 (November 2009=100),
indicating a 0.8 per cent and 11.28 per cent increase over the
levels in the second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. The development was attributed
to projected increase in both food and non-food categories.
The urban All-items CPI (November 2009=100) was 272.0 at
end-September 2018, representing 3.1 per cent and 11.7 per
cent increase, compared with the levels at end-June 2018
and end-September 2017, respectively. The rural all-items CPI
(November 2009=100), was 265.5 at end-September 2018,
representing 2.98 per cent and 10.92 per cent increase,
compared with the levels at end-June 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure 14, Table
14).
The composite food index (with a weight of 50.7 per cent in
the CPI basket) was 289.0 at end-September 2018, compared
with 278.2 and 255.1, at the end of the preceding quarter and
the corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The projected
price increase was attributed to expected loss of farm
produce as a result of floods witnessed in some states.
Figure 14: Consumer Price Index

Source: NBS


8 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the
2003/2004 Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH October 2010. All values are staff estmates.

Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural
The general price level
increased in Q3 2018
over the level in the
preceding quarter.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Table 14: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Composite


Urban

Rural


Headline inflation rose to 11.28 per cent at end-September
2018, compared with the 11.23 per cent and 15.98 per cent at
the end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2017, respectively. This reflected the rise in prices of
selected food items, fuel and lubricants for personal transport
equipment and solid fuels, among others.

The Twelve-Month Moving Average (12MMA) inflation for
september 2018 was estimated at 13.16 per cent, compared
with 14.37 per cent and 17.17 per cent in the preceding
quarter and corresponding period of 2017, respectively (Figure
15, Table 15).
Figure 15: Inflation Rate

Source: NBS
Table 15: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year

Source: NBS


Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year
The headline inflation
(y-o-y) was at 11.28
per cent in Q3 2018.


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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments9
Foreign exchange inflow through the CBN in the third quarter of 2018
fell by 6.3 per cent, while outflow rose by 27.4 per cent, relative to
the levels in the second quarter of 2018. Total non-oil export
proceeds received through banks rose by 25.5 per cent above the
level at end-June 2018. The average exchange rate at the investors’
and exporters’ window, the BDC and the inter-bank segment of the
foreign exchange market were N362.42/US$, N359.21/US$ and
N306.03/US$, respectively, in the review quarter. At US$42.61 billion,
the gross external reserves fell by 9.6 per cent, compared with the
level at end-June 2018 .
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Despite the decline in dometsic oil production, there was
improvement in foreign exchange revenue from oil export in
the third quarter of 2018, on account of the favourable
international price of crude oil. The development was,
however, moderated by the significant decline in inflow from
non-oil exports. Consequently, aggregate foreign exchange
inflow through the CBN amounted to US$12.95 billion,
indicating a 6.3 per cent decline below the level at end-June
2018. It, however, showed an increase of 8.1 per cent, over
the level in the corresponding period of 2017. The decline,
relative to the preceding quarter, reflected, mainly, the fall in
inflow from non-oil sources.
Aggregate outflow through the CBN amounted to US$16.93
billion in the third quarter of 2018. This represented 27.4 per
cent and 81.3 per cent increase, above US$13.29 billion and
US$9.34
billion
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The increase in
outflow relative to the preceding quarter was attributed to
32.2 per cent and 28.0 per cent increase in public sector
payments and interventions in the foreign exchange market.
Overall, a net outflow of US$3.98 billion was recorded through
the Bank, compared with US$0.53 billion and US$2.64 billion in
the second quarter of 2018 and the corresponding period of
2017, respectively (Figure 16, Table 16).

9 Data on foreign exchange flows through the CBN and the Economy, as well as foreign
exchange utilisation are provisional and subject to change
Foreign exchange inflow
through the CBN fell ,
while outflow increased,
resulting in a net
outflow of US$3.98
billion in Q3 of 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Source: CBN
Table 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Inflow
6,726.01

6,597.73

9,355.29

11,984.05

14,708.45

14,159.09

13,822.78

12,949.01

Outflow
4,649.85

3,646.89

9,048.62

9,343.06

8,444.27

9,652.66

13,290.53

16,931.36

Netflow
2,076.16

2,950.84

306.67

2,640.99

6,264.18

4,506.43

532.25

(3,982.36)


Source: CBN

Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into the economy
amounted to US$26.01 billion at end-September 2018,
indicating a decrease of 20.3 per cent and 3.7 per cent,
compare to the levels in the second quarter of 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
was as a result of the 6.3 per cent and 30.6 per cent
decrease in inflow through Central Bnak of Nigeria and
autonomous sources. Oil sector receipts, which accounted for
14.2 per cent of the total, was US$3.69 billion, compared with
US$3.15 billion and US$3.17 billion in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
Non-oil inflow, at US$9.26 billion (35.6 per cent of the total), fell
by 13.3 per cent below the level at the end of 2018 second
quarter, but rose by 5.1 per cent, over the level at the
corresponding period of 2017. Autonomous inflow, at US$13.06
billion, fell by 30.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent below the levels
at end of the preceding quarter of 2018 and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. Inflow from
autonomous sources accounted for 50.2 per cent of the total.
-10,000
-5,000


Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow
Autonomous inflow
into the economy fell
by 30.6 per cent in Q3
2018 .


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Aggregate foreign exchange outflow from the economy, at
US$17.83 billion, rose by 25.6 per cent and 75.3 per cent,
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2017, respectively. The development
reflected, mainly, the rising outflow through the Bank. Thus,
foreign exchange flows through the economy resulted in a net
inflow of US$8.18 billion in the review quarter, compared with
US$18.44 billion and US$16.85 billion in the second quarter of
2018 and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings received through the banks
amounted
to
US$1.49
billion at
end-September
2018,
representing an increase of 25.5 per cent and 193.5 per cent
above the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding quarter in 2017, respectively. The development
was due, mainly, to the respective increase of 92.9 per cent
and 211.3 per cent in earnings from minerals and foods
products sub-sectors. A breakdown by sectors showed that
proceeds were: minerals, (US$790.86 million); agricultural
sector, (US$271.52 million); manufactured products, (US$196.02
million); industrial sector, (US$165.02 million); food products,
(US$71.54 million); and transport (US$0.015 million).
The percentage shares of minerals, agricultural products,
manufactured products, industrial sector and food products in
the total non-oil export proceeds were 52.9 per cent, 18.2 per
cent, 13.1 per cent, 11.0 per cent and 4.8 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Aggregate sectoral foreign exchange utilisation in the third
quarter of 2018 was estimated at US$11.16 billion, indicating a
10.7 per cent increase above the level in the preceding
quarter. The invisible sector accounted for the bulk (60.9%) of
total foreign exchange disbursed in the review quarter,
followed by the industrial sector (18.6%). Others were:
manufactured products, 8.0 per cent; minerals and oil, 5.6 per
cent; food products, 5.1 per cent; transport, 1.0 per cent; and
agricultural sector, 0.7 per cent (Figure17).
The invisible sector
accounted for the
bulk of the total
foreign exchange
disbursed in Q3 2018.
Total non-oil export
earnings by exporters
rose in Q3 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Source: CBN
5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
A total of US$11.88 billion was sold by the CBN to authorised
dealers in the third quarter of 2018. This represented 24.0 per
cent and 83.1 per cent increase above the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2017,
respectively. The development, relative to the preceding
quarter, was attributed to activities at the I&E window and
increase in foreign exchange sales to BDCs in the review
quarter.
Of the total, foreign exchange forwards disbursed at maturity
was US$3.24 billion (27.3 per cent); I&E window, US$2.84 billion
(23.9 per cent); sales to BDCs, US$2.41 billion (20.3 per cent);
interbank sales, US$2.16 billion (18.2 per cent); and swaps
transactions, US$1.23 billion (10.3 per cent).


Percent of Total
Q3-18
Q2-18
Q1-18
Supply for foreign
exchange by
authorized dealers
rose in Q3 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 18: Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank
Supply of Swaps
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Source: CBN

Table 17: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Forex Sales at rDAS/Interbank

Supply of Swaps

Supply of Forex to BDC

Forward

Total Forex Supply(BDC and rDAS)

Source: CBN

The CBN sustained its interventions at both the inter-bank and
the BDC segments of the foreign exchange market in the
review quarter. However, the average exchange rate of the
naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the inter-bank segment
depreciated by 0.1 per cent to N306.03/US$, relative to the
level at end-June 2018. Similarly, at the Investors’ and
Exporters’ (I&E) Window, the average exchange rate,
depreciated by 0.4 per cent to N362.42/US$ at endSeptember 2018, relative to the level at the end of the
preceding quarter.
At the BDC segment, the average exchange rate was
N359.21/US$, representing 0.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent
appreciation relative to the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2017, respectively.
Consequently, the premium between the average inter-bank
and BDC rates narrowed to 17.4 percentage points in the
review quarter, from 18.3 percentage points at the end of the
second quarter of 2018. Similarly, the spread between the
The average naira
exchange rate vis-à-vis the
US dollar depreciated at
the inter-bank segment
and I&E Window but
appreciated at the BDC
segment in Q3 2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

average exchange rates at the Investors’ and Exporters’
window and the BDC segment narrowed further to 1.0 per
cent, from 2.5 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter
(Figure 19, Table 18).
Figure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Source: CBN

Table 18: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Investors and Exporters Window
N/A
N/A
N/A

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
I&E/Interbank
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18.0
18.4
BDC/Interbank


Source: CBN


Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18
Average I & E
Average BDC
N/US$


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 20: Exchange Rate Premium

Source: CBN
5.5
Gross Official External Reserves
Gross external reserves was US$42.61 billion at end-September
2018. This indicated a decrease of 9.6 per cent below the
level in the second quarter of 2018. The external reserves
position would cover 7.3 months of import of goods and
services or 13.6 months of import of goods only, based on the
estimated value of import for the third quarter of 2018. A
breakdown of the official external reserves by ownership
showed that CBN reserves stood at US$35.05 billion (82.3 per
cent), Federal Government reserves, US$5.29 billion (12.4 per
cent) and the Federation reserves, US$2.26 billion (5.3 per
cent) (Figure 21, Table 19).


Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Per cent
Interbank/BDC
Interbank/BDC
Gross external
reserves fell during
the third quarter of
2018.


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Economic Report Third Quarter

Figure 21: Gross Official External Reserves


Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
US$ million

Table 19: Gross Official External Reserves (US$ million)
Q2-17
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q2-18
External Reserves
30,341.0

33,159.7

39,353.5

46,730.5

47,157.9

42,607.3


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6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
Global growth in the review period was uneven among
emerging markets and developing economies, due to rising oil
prices, higher yields in the United States, sentiment shifts on
account of escalating trade tensions, and domestic political
and policy uncertainty. The development resulted in reduced
capital inflow, higher financing costs, and exchange rate
pressures. Though rate of expansion appeared to have
peaked in some major economies, countries with weaker
fundamentals and higher political risks were the most
affected, as growth became less synchronized. Consequently,
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic
Outlook for July 2018 estimated global growth at 3.9 per cent,
respectively, for 2018 and 2019.

In the United States, near-term momentum strengthened in
line with the IMF forecast, and the US dollar appreciation.
Growth projections were revised downwards for the euro
area, Japan, and the United Kingdom, reflecting negative
surprises in early 2018.

Developments in the emerging markets were uneven amid
rising oil prices, higher yields in the United States, escalating
trade tensions, and market pressures on the currencies of
some economies with weaker fundamentals. Consequently,
growth projections were revised downwards for Argentina,
Brazil, and India, while the outlook for some oil exporters
strengthened.
The recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa was set to continue,
supported by the rise in commodity prices. Growth for the
region is estimated at 3.4 per cent for 2018 and projected to
rise further to 3.8 per cent in 2019. The forecast reflected
improved prospects for Nigeria’s economy, estimated to grow
at 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019, on the back
of improved outlook for oil prices. Despite the weaker-thanexpected first quarter outcome in South Africa, the economy
was expected to recover over the remainder of 2018 and
2019, as confidence improves and private investments
strenghtens, on accout of the new leadership.


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6.2 Global Inflation
Developments in headline inflation were mixed in the third
quarter of 2018. In advanced economies, inflation generally
trended upward due to higher energy prices, though core
inflation remained below central banks’ targets.
In the Euro Area, inflation was estimated to increase to 2.1 per
cent in September 2018, from 2.0 per cent in the second
quarter of 2018. Similarly, inflation rose in the UK to 2.7 per cent
at end-August 2018 from 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of
2018, while in the US, inflation declined to 2.7 per cent at endAugust 2018, from 2.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2018.
In emerging markets and developing economies, inflation
rates generally moderated, on account of dissipating past
effects of depreciating currencies, though some economies
experienced increase due to higher energy prices. Inflation in
India eased to 3.7 per cent from 4.9 per cent in the second
quarter of 2018. Similarly, inflation in Ghana declined from 10.0
per cent in the second quarter of 2018 to 9.9 per cent at endAugust 2018. In Nigeria, however, inflation rose to 11.28 per
cent due to increase in food inflation in the review quarter.
Similarly, inflation in Brazil picked up to 4.5 per cent in
September 2018, from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter of
2018 and in China, it rose to 2.3 per cent at end-August 2018
from 1.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2018.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
Global crude oil supply in the review quarter was estimated at
99.09 mbd, representing 0.3 per cent increase above the level
in the preceding quarter. World crude oil demand was
estimated at an average of 99.38 mbd, indicating a 1.3 per
cent increase above the level in the second quarter of 2018.
The average price of OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) of 15
selected crude streams was US$74.00/b in the third quarter of
2018, and represented 2.9 per cent increase over the level in
the preceding quarter. The increase in oil price was attributed
to supply disruptions around the globe, particularly, news on
Iran production outages, Saudi Arabia’s suspension of crude
oil shipments through its major shipping lane and disturbances
to production in Libya.


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6.4
International Financial Markets
Developments in the international stock markets were
generally mixed in the third quarter of 2018. In North America,
the Mexican Bolsa and United States S&P 500 indices rose by
3.9 and 7.2 per cent, respectively, while the Canadian
S&P/TSX Composite index fell by 1.3 per cent. In South
America, the Argentine Merval and Brazilian Bovespa indices
rose by 28.5 per cent and 9.0 per cent, respectively, while the
Colombian COLCAP index fell by 4.5 per cent.
In Europe, the France CAC 40 increased by 3.2 per cent, while
the UK FTSE 100 and German DAX indices decreased by 1.7
per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. Similarly, In Asia,
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and India’s BSE Sensex indices increased by
8.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively, while the China’s
Shanghai Stock Exchange-A index decreased by 0.9 per cent.
In Africa, the Ghanaian GSE ASI increased by 0.1 per cent,
while the Nigerian NSE All-Share, South African JSE All-Share
index, Kenyan Nairobi NSE 20, and Egyptian EGX CASE 30
indices decreased by 14.4, 3.3, 12.5 and 10.5 per cent
respectively, in the rveiw period.
In the foreign exchange market, most of the selected
currencies depreciated against the US dollar due to a
combination of: significant improvements in the US economic
conditions and the reduced uncertainty around the dollar, on
account of normalisation of monetary policy; higher treasury
yields; improved employment figures; and output growth. In
addition, capital flow reversals from Emerging Markets and
Developing Economies (EMDEs) continued to exert pressure
on the currencies of countries with fragile economic
conditions. A summary of developments in the foreign
exchange market were as follows:

Africa: The Nigerian naira, South African rand, Egyptian
pound and Ghanaian cedi all depreciated by 0.2 per
cent, 2.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 2.4 per cent,
respectively. The depreciation was attributed in part to
declining external reserves and sustained capital reversals
in response to higher yields in advanced countries and
partly to reduced output growth. The Kenyan shilling,
however, appreciated by 0.2 per cent, on account of


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Economic Report Third Quarter

increased foreign direct investments, diaspora remittances
and inflows from export earnings.

North America: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso
both appreciated by 1.7 per cent and 6.4 per cent,
respectively. The improvement was attributed to the new
tripartite trade deal among the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
The new deal, called the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement”
(USMCA) replaced the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA).


South America: The Brazilian real, Argentine peso and
Colombian peso depreciated by 4.3 per cent, 30.0 per
cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. The slide in the value
of the currencies reflected the uncertainties around the
Argentine economy and elections in Brazil.


Europe: The British pound, the euro and the Russian ruble
depreciated by 1.4 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 4.3 per
cent, respectively. Also, the pound fell against the US$, as
uncertainty surrounding BREXIT negotiations continued due
to recent comments by the British Prime Minister. The euro
depreciated, on account of the Italian government failing
to arrive at a consensus on their 2019 budget and the ruble
slipped further as additional sanctions by the US and other
geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia adversely
impacted the currency.


Asia: The Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee
depreciated by 2.6 per cent, 3.6 per cent and 5.6 per
cent, respectively. The recent currency weakness, as was
also observed in most Asian economies, was exacerbated
by increased capital outflows due to rising US bond yields,
coupled with the escalating trade conflict between the US
and China.
6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the third
quarter of 2018 included the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) Mid-Year Staff Consultations with Nigeria, conducted
from June 27 – July 9, 2018. The team reviewed developments


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Economic Report Third Quarter

in the various sectors, assessed the soundness of the economy
and offered advice on future policy directions. At the end of
the visit, the team noted that:

Though
international
reserves
remained
stable,
supported by some convergence in existing foreign
exchange windows, higher oil prices and short-term
portfolio inflows, recovery remained challenging;

Reforms to improve the business environment including
identification of priority investment projects were in
progress;

The implementation of the Power Sector Recovery Plan
was advancing through a mini-grid policy and
regulations on eligible customers and meter asset
providers; and

Increased oil exports would keep the current account
in surplus and stabilise gross international reserves,
notwithstanding the current pace of foreign portfolio
outflows.
The Afreximbank Annual Meeting (AAM), with the theme:
“Celebrating the past: Shaping the future”, was held in Abuja,
Nigeria from July 11 – 14, 2018. The meeting discussed the
future transformation of trade and economic development in
the
continent,
including
the
impact
of
the
recently
announced African Continental Free Trade Agreement
(AfCFTA). High-level strategic seminars at the meeting focused
on:

How Africa can work with development partners to
harness innovation and technology to achieve and
accelerate trade, as well as, produce real growth and
developmental transformation;

How Africa will leverage recovery from the recent
commodity price shock, to look at key options and
strategies to put the Continent on a sustainable
development path, powered by industrial development
and regional value chains; and


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What opportunities are there in the African Continental
Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), considering the
possibility of Africa offering the largest free trade market.
In addition, the 2018 Mid-Year Statutory Meetings of the West
African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), West African Monetary
Agency (WAMA) and the West African Institute for Financial
and Economic Management (WAIFEM) were held in Abuja,
Nigeria from September 6 – 14, 2018.
Furthermore, the 41st Ordinary Meeting of the Assembly of
Governors of the Association of African Central Bank (AACB)
held on August 9, 2018, at the International congress Centre
in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The meeting was attended by thirtyfive (35) central banks and the African Union Commission
(AUC). It also marked the accession of Bank Al-Maghreb to
the AACB, after Morocco was readmitted to the African
Union.


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APPENDIX TABLES


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C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates

Aug-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
N billion
Domestic Credit (Net)
26,821.45

26,985.30

25,863.30

8,683.90

25,568.20

24,848.60

Claims on Federal Government (Net)
4,824.23

4,963.40

3,640.93

4,930.75

3,286.30

2,378.40

Central Bank (Net)
(194.24)

(137.90)

(353.56)

1,643.93

23,409.80

(885.60)

Banks
5,018.47

5,101.30

3,994.49

3,286.82

3,262.90

3,263.90

Claims on Private Sector
21,997.22

22,021.90

22,290.66

22,363.23

22,281.90

22,470.20

Central Bank
5,580.61

5,532.60

5,870.69

6,258.21

6,420.40

6,427.70

Banks
16,416.61

16,489.30

15,515.56

15,129.61

15,861.50

16,042.50

Claims on Other Private Sector
20,684.45

20,737.40

20,718.30

20,466.19

20,489.00

20,808.20

Central Bank
4,974.44

4,967.10

5,202.74

5,336.57

5,599.80

5,723.90

Banks
15,710.30

15,770.30

15,515.56

15,129.60

14,889.20

15,084.30

Claims on State and Local Government
1,237.22

1,257.10

1,544.83

1,631.93

1,628.80

1,614.80

Central Bank
530.92

538.10

640.43

656.53

656.50

656.50

DMBs
706.30

719.00

904.40

975.40

972.30

958.20

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
--
--
'--
'--
'--
Central Bank
--
--
'--
'--
'--
DMBs
--
'--
'--
'--
'--
Foreign Assets (Net)
9,732.99

10,050.50

15,520.76

16,316.80

18,337.50

18,411.90

Central Bank
9,620.45

9,870.20

15,134.60

15,918.20

17,844.10

17,993.80

DMBs and Non Interest Banks
112.54

180.30

386.10

398.70

493.50

418.10

Other Assets (Net)
(7,060.49)

(7,190.60)

(10,294.80)

(10,463.70)

(10,091.00)

(9,652.90)

Money Supply (M3)
29,493.94

29,845.20

31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

33,607.60

Quasi-Money 1/
11,960.64

11,889.80

12,965.10

13,390.40

14,112.90

14,411.20

Money Supply (M1)
9,890.81

10,064.30

11,175.60

11,034.00

10,701.10

10,448.20

Currency Outside Banks
1,523.24

1,435.30

1,782.70

1,668.40

1,519.90

1,541.60

Demand Deposits 2/
8,367.57

8,628.90

9,392.90

9,365.60

9,181.20

8,906.60

Money Supply (M2)
21,851.45

21,954.00

24,140.60

24,424.40

24,814.00

24,859.30

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors
7,642.49

7,891.30

7,016.90

8,722.70

9,000.70

8,748.30

Money Supply (M3)
29,493.94

29,845.20

31,157.60

33,147.10

33,814.70

33,607.60

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)
5,486.80

5,559.80

6,484.30

6,755.70

6,360.50

6,688.50

Currency in Circulation (CIC)
1,868.74

1,781.10

2,157.20

2,039.30

1,900.70

1,928.70

Banks' Deposit with CBN
3,618.07

3,778.70

4,327.10

4,716.40

4,459.80

4,759.80


Source: CBN


1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Aug-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Money Assets (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)

Money Supply (M3)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Money Supply (M2)

CBN Bills held by Non-Bank Sectors

Money Supply (M3)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December


Source: CBN
1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.
*All figures are provisional and subject to changes


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report Third Quarter

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q3-17
Q4-17
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
Retained Revenue
990.21

1,265.75

902.64

896.74

950.61

Federation Account
716.95

637.73

758.47

767.48

824.40

VAT Pool Account
35.84

36.50

38.89

38.02

40.28

FGN Independent Revenue
35.76

0.92

20.25

57.42

45.86

Excess Crude
0.00
24.24

14.10

-

-

Others
201.65

566.36

70.93

33.82

40.08

Expenditure
1,652.00

1,956.77

1,599.76

988.91

1,050.94

Recurrent
1,297.70

1,457.80

1,274.94

855.57

866.22

Capital
236.90

384.92

262.77

79.96

131.62

Transfers
117.39

114.06

62.04

53.37

53.11

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)
(661.79)

(691.02)

(697.11)

(92.17)

(100.33)


*All figures are provisional and subject to changes