ECONOMIC REPORT
FIRST QUARTER 2015


CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a
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Economic Report First Quarter

The Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Economic Report is designed for the dissemination
of financial and economic information on the Nigerian economy on current basis. The
Report analyses developments in the financial, fiscal, real and external sectors of the
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Economic Report First Quarter

Contents


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Economic Report First Quarter


Text Tables


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Appendix Tables
Figures


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Economic Report First Quarter

1.0 Summary
Provisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary
aggregate decelerated in the first quarter of 2015. Over the level at
the end of the preceding quarter, broad money supply, (M2), grew
by 1.1 per cent, compared with 12.6 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter. The slow growth relative to the preceding
quarter was attributed to the decline of 15.7 and 7.9 per cent in
foreign assets (net) and other assets (net), respectively, which
dampened the 10.0 per cent increase in domestic credit (net).
Available data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit
and lending rates during the first quarter of 2015. The spread
between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending
rates widened by 0.31 percentage points to 17.52 percentage points
at the end of the first quarter of 2015. Similarly, the margin between
the average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates,
widened by 0.37 percentage point to 22.73 percentage points. The
weighted average inter-bank call rate fell by 0.52 percentage points
to 15.43 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the inter-bank funds market.
Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets
outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2015 increased by 8.4
per cent to N8,307.52 billion, compared with the increase of 3.5 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the 12.9 per cent increase in FGN Bonds outstanding.
Available data indicated that developments in the Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) were bearish during the first quarter of 2015.
Total federally-collected revenue
stood at
N1,812.87 billion,
representing a decline of 33.3 and 18.0 per cent below the
proportionate 2014 quarterly budget estimate and receipts in the
preceding quarter, respectively. At N1,210.77 billion, oil receipts,
which constituted 66.8 per cent of the total, fell below the
proportionate 2014 quaterly budget estimate by 32.4 and 17.4 per
cent, respectively. The fall in oil receipts was attributed, largely, to a
decline in receipts from PPT and Royalties owing to the decline in
crude oil prices.
Non-oil receipts, at N602.10 billion, was lower than the provisional
2014 quaterly budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding
quarter by 35.1 and 19.1 per cent, respectively. Federal Government
retained revenue was N751.36 billion, while total expenditure was
N560.31 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government
resulted in an estimated surplus of N191.05 billion in the first quarter of


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Economic Report First Quarter

2015, compared with the provisional 2014 quarterly budget deficit of
N241.05 billion.
Activities in the agricultural sector were dominated by harvesting of
tree crops, tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and clearing of land
for 2015 wet season farming. Nigeria’s crude oil production,
including condensates and natural gas liquids, averaged at 1.89
million barrels per day (mbd) or 170.1 million barrels for the quarter.
Crude oil export stood at 1.44 mbd or 129.6 million barrels for the
quarter, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption
remained at 0.45 mbd or 40.5 million barrels. The average price of
Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), declined by 27.0
per cent below the level in the preceding quarter.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 8.5 per
cent, compared with the 8.0 and 7.8 per cent recorded at the end
of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis
was 8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent in the preceding
quarter.
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow and outflow
through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$7.51
billion and US$12.35 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of
US$4.84 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized
dealers amounted to US$10.54 billion, compared with US$12.74 billion
in the preceding quarter. The average exchange rate of the naira
vis-à-vis the US dollar at the rDAS window was N169.68 per US dollar,
compared with N162.33 per US dollar in the preceding quarter.
Relative to their respective levels in the preceding quarter, the naira
depreciated by 14.9 and 9.9 per cent at both the bureau-dechange and inter-bank segments of the market.
The Januray 2015 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic
Outlook (WEO) Update projected global growth at 3.5 per cent in
2015. This represented a downward revision of 0.3 per cent from the
projected level in October 2014, reflecting a reassessment of
prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan as well as
weak activity in some major oil exporting countries.
World crude oil demand and supply were estimated at 91.41 and
94.09 mbd, respectively, in the first quarter of 2015. Low demand for
crude was attributed to weakened industrial activity and reduced
refinery margins in many parts of the world, while increased
production majorly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq accounted for the
increase in global supply. The OPEC Reference Basket price of
eleven selected crude streams stood at US$50.30 per barrel in the


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Economic Report First Quarter

first quarter of 2015, compared with US$73.36/b recorded in the
preceding quarter. The prices of the Bonny Light, UK Brent, the West
Texas Intermediate and the Forcados, also exhibited similar trends.
Other major international economic developments and meetings of
importance to the domestic economy during the review period
included: the extraordinary meeting of the Committee of Governors
of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) held at Abuja, Nigeria
on January 22, 2015. The 24th African Union Summit held in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia from January 23 - 31, 2015 under the theme
"Women's Empowerment Year and Africa Development Towards
Agenda 2063”. Also, the 8th Joint Annual Meetings of the African
Union Specialized Technical Committee on Finance, Monetary
Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration and the ECA Conference
of
African
Ministers
of
Finance,
Planning
and
Economic
Development took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from March 25 -
31, 2015.


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2.0 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Monetary and Credit Developments
Provisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary
aggregate decelerated at the end of the first quarter of 2015.
Developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates were mixed
during the review quarter. The value of money market assets
outstanding increased, due largely, to the increase in FGN Bonds.
Developments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bearish.
Provisional data indicated that growth in the key monetary
aggregate decelerated at the end of the first quarter of 2015.
Relative to the level at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014,
Broad money supply, (M2), quarter-on-quarter, grew by 1.1 per
cent to N19,142.5 billion at end-March 2015, compared with
the growth of 12.6 and 13.0 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. The slow growth relative to the preceding quarter
was attributed to the the decline of 15.7 and 7.9 per cent in
foreign assets (net) and other assets (net), respectively, which
dampened the 10.0 per cent growth in aggrgate credit.
Narrow money supply (M1), at N6,994.1 billion, rose by 1.1 per
cent, at the end of the review quarter, compared with the
growth of 0.9 and 8.3 per cent at the end of the preceding
and
corresponding
period
of
2014,
respectively.
The
development, relative to the fourth quarter of 2014, was
attributed to the increase of 2.4 and 0.7 per cent in its
currency outside bank and demand deposit components,
respectively.
Quasi-money rose by 1.2 per cent to N12,148.4 billion at the
end of the first quarter of 2015, compared with the growth of
20.6 and 16.9 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and
the
corresponding
quarter
of
2014,
respectively.
The
development was attributed to the increase in time and
savings deposits with banks (Fig. 1, Table 1).
Growth in key
monetary
aggregate
decelerated during
Q1 2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 1: Growth Rate of Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2)1
-15
-10
-5

-15
-10
-5

Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QM1 (RHS)
QM2 (RHS)
CM1 (LHS)
CM2 (LHS)

At N20,757.6 billion, aggregate banking system’s credit (net)
to the domestic economy grew by 10.0 per cent to N20,757.6
billion at the end of the first quarter of 2015, compared with
the growth of 17.3 and 24.5 per cent at the end of the fourth
quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively.
The development relative to the level at the end of the fourth
quarter of 2014 reflected the growth of 187.6 and 2.6 per cent
in net claims on the Federal Government and net credit to the
private sector, respectively.
Banking system’s credit (net) to the Federal Government, at
the end of the review quarter, rose by 187.6 per cent to
negative N2,178.4 billion, compared with the growth of 147.8
and 199.6 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and the
corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively. The development
relative to the fourth quarter of 2014 was due to the surge in
banking system’s holding of Federal Government securities,
especially Federal Government bonds and treasury bills, which
increased by 104.9 and 3.9 per cent, respectively.
At the end of the first quarter of 2015, banking system’s credit

1 QM1 and QM2 represent quarter-on-quarter changes, while CM1 and CM2 represent
cumulative changes (year-to-date).

Banking system
credit to the
Federal
Government rose
by 187.6 per cent
at the end of the
first quarter of
2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

to the private sector grew by 2.6 per cent to N18,579.2 billion,
compared with the growth of 2.5 and 1.6 per cent at the end
of the fourth quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. The development relative to the level at the end
of the preceding quarter was attributed to the 2.6 and 1.3 per
cent growth in claims on the core private sector and the state
and local governments, respectively (Fig. 2, Table 1).
Figure 2: Growth Rate of Aggregate Domestic Credit to the Economy2
-50

-50

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Quarterly (%)
Cumulative (%)
QCP (RHS)
QCG (RHS)
QAC (RHS)
CCP (LHS)
CCG (LHS)
CAC (LHS)

At N5,985.6 billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system
fell by 15.7 per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2015,
compared with the decline of 8.4 and 23.7 per cent at the
end of the fourth quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2014, respectively. The development relative to the fourth
quarter of 2014 was attributed, largely, to the 16.2 and 11.1
per cent fall in foreign assets holdings by the CBN and the
commercial banks, respectively.
Other assets (net) of the banking system declined by 7.9 per
cent to negative N7,600.7 billion at the end of the review
quarter, compared with the decline of 0.1 per cent at the
end of the preceding quarter, but was in contrast to the 7.0
per cent growth recorded at the end of the corresponding
quarter of 2014. The development was attributed to the

2 QCP, QCG and QAC represent quarter-on-quarter changes in credit to private sector, credit to
government (net) and aggregate credit (net) to the domestic economy, respectively, while CCP,
CCG and CAC, represent the cumulative changes (year-to-date).
Foreign assets
(net) of the
banking system
declined at the end
of the review
quarter.


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Economic Report First Quarter

decline in unclassified assets of the DMB’s during the review
period.
Table 1: Growth in Monetary and Credit Aggregates (Per cent) Over
Preceding Quarter
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Quasi-Money

Narrow Money Supply (M1)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)


2.2
Currency-in-circulation (CIC) and Deposits at
the CBN
At N1,818.4 billion, currency-in-circulation rose by 1.1 per cent
at the end of the first quarter, compared with the increase of
16.2 and 15.5 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter and
the
corresponding
quarter
of
2014,
respectively.
The
development relative to the fourth quarter of 2014 was
attributed, largely, to the 2.3 per cent increase in currency
outside bank.

Total deposits at the CBN fell by 12.3 per cent to N6,867.3
billion, in contrast to the increase of 10.0 per cent at the end
of the fourth quarter of 2014. The development reflected,
largely, the decline of 37.1 and 24.1per cent in private sector
deposits and Federal Government deposits, respectively. Of
the total deposits, the shares of the Federal Government,
banks and ‘’Others’’ were N2,602.7 billion (37.9 per cent),
N4,118.7 billion (60.0 per cent) and N145.9 billion (2.1 per
cent), respectively.
Reserve money (RM), at N5,937.1 billion, fell by 0.5 per cent, in
contrast to the 20.7 per cent increase recorded at the end of
the fourth quarter of 2014. The development, relative to the
level at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014, was attributed to
the decline of 1.2 per cent in its demand deposit component.
Reserve money
(RM) fell at the
end of the first
quarter of 2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

2.3
Money Market Developments
Major indicators in the money market were influenced by
liquidity condition in the review period. Short term money
market rates stabilized around the Monetary Policy Rate
although with some spikes due to major withdrawals, including
the execution of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company
(NNPC) mandate. The market was able to achieve some level
of stability, especially at the foreign exchange segment with
improved confidence by market players. Open market
operations remained the main instrument of monetary policy
during the period.
Provisional data indicated that the total value of money
market assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of
2015 stood at N8,307.5 billion, showing an increase of 8.4 per
cent, compared with the increase of 3.5 per cent at the end
of the fourth quarter of 2014. The development was attributed,
largely, to the 12.9 per cent increase in the FGN Bonds
outstanding.

2.3.1
Interest Rate Developments
Available data indicated mixed developments in banks’
deposit and lending rates during the first quarter of 2015. All
rates on deposits of various maturities rose from a range of
3.44 – 9.99 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 3.57 – 9.7
per cent in the first quarter of 2015. At 8.54 per cent, the
average term deposit rate fell by 0.06 percentage point
below its level in the fourth quarter of 2014. The maximum and
prime lending rates, however, rose by 0.50 and 0.56
percentage point to 26.30 and 16.84 per cent, respectively,
compared with the level at the end of the fourth quarter of
2014. Consequently, the spread between the weighted
average term deposit and maximum lending rates widened
by 0.31 percentage point to 17.52 percentage points at the
end of the first quarter of 2015. The spread between the
average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates,
also, widened by 0.37 percentage point to 22.73 percentage
points, compared with 22.36 percentage point in the fourth
quarter of 2014. With the headline inflation rate at 8.5 per cent
at end-March 2015, most deposit and lending rates were
positive in real terms except for the average savings and 7Money market
rates were
relatively stable
during the review
period.
The spread
between the
weighted –
average term
deposit and
maximum
lending rates
widened at the
end of the first
quarter.


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Economic Report First Quarter

days deposits.
At the interbank funds segment, the weighted average interbank call rate, which stood at 15.95 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter, fell by 0.52 percentage point to 15.43 per
cent in the first quarter of 2015, reflecting the liquidity
condition in the banking system. However, the weighted
average rate at the Open-Buy-Back (OBB) segment rose by
2.82 percentage points to 17.61 per cent. The Nigeria Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) for the 7-day tenor rose to 12.16
per cent, above the 11.53 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Similarly, the 30-day tenor rose from 13.13 per cent in the
preceding quarater to 14.90 per cent in the first quarter of
2015 (Fig. 3, Table 2).
Figure 3: Selected DMBs Interest Rates (Average)

Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Percent per Annum
Percent per Annum
Prime
Interbank
Maximum
Average Term Deposits (RHS)


Table 2: Selected Interest Rates (Percent, Averages)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Average Term Deposits

Prime Lending

Interbank

Maximum Lending


2.3.2
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper (CP) outstanding held by DMBs fell by 7.5
per cent to N9.1 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2015,
compared with N9.8 billion at the end of the preceding
quarter. The development was due to the fall in investment in

Investment in
CP by banks fell
in the first
quarter of 2015.
Interbank call
rate fell in Q1
2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

CP by the commercial banks during the review quarter. Thus,
CP constituted 0.11 per cent of the total value of money
market assets during the review period, compared with 0.13
per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
2.3.3
Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs)

At the end of the review quarter, the value of BAs outstanding
declined by 43.3 per cent to N20.8 billion, compared with
N36.6 billion at the end of the preceding quarter. The
development was attributed to the decline in investment in
BAs by the DMBs during the quarter. Consequently, BAs
accounted for 0.25 per cent of the total value of money
market assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of
2015, compared with 0.48 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter.
2.3.4 Open Market Operations
In the Open Market Operations (OMO), bills with tenors
ranging from 133 - 203 days were used for liquidity
management in the first quarter of 2015. Total sales was
N2,057.07 billion and subscription was N2,597.12 billion. The bid
rates ranged from 13.90 – 16.00 per cent, while the stop rates
were between 14.20 – 14.85 per cent. Matured bills amounting
to N1,849.24 billion were repaid, translating to a net
withdrawal of N207.82 billion in the review period.
2.3.5
Primary Market
At the primary market segment, NTBs of 91-, 182- and 364-day
tenors were offered. Total amount offered, allotted and
subscribed to were N1,141.30 billion, N2,555.14 billion and
N1,141.30 billion, respectively. At the 91-day segment, total
subscription and allotment were N217.98 billion and N188.21
billion, respectively, with bid rates ranging from 9.00 to 15.00
per cent, while the stop rates were from 10.75 – 11.20 per cent.
For the 182-day segment, total subscription and allotment
amounted to N480.63 billion and N244.89 billion, respectively.
The bid rates ranged from 9.50 –16.49 per cent, while the stop
rates were between 13.70 -14.85 per cent. At the 364-day
segment, total subscription and allotment were N1,856.53
billion and N708.20 billion, respectively, with bid rates ranging
from 10.90 – 19.98 per cent, while stop rates ranged from 14.30
– 15.89 per cent.
DMBs’ holdings of
BAs declined
during Q1 of
2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

2.3.6
Bonds Market
A new tranche of 5-year FGN Bond and the existing tranches
of FGN Bonds of 5-, 10- and 20-year tenors were reopened
during the review period. The total amount offered,
subscribed to and allotted were N258.0 billion, N372.26 billion
and N239.50 billion, respectively. The marginal rates for the 5year bond ranged from 15.20 - 16.49 per cent, the 10-year
bond yields range from 15.42 - 16.84 per cent, while the 20year was from 15.47-16.99 per cent to 13.10 –14.20 per cent
for all the tenors, compared with marginal rates between
12.00 - 15.49 percent for all the tenors in the preceding
quarter.
2.3.7
CBN Standing Facilities
Total request for the standing lending facility (SLF) granted
during the review period was N1,644.07 billion (inclusive of
intra-day liquidity facility converted to overnight repo),
compared with N1,395.97 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014
and N3,169.26 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively.
Total standing deposit facility (SDF) granted during the review
period was N4,741.61 billion, while the cost incurred stood at
N2.26 billion, compared with the request of N10,986.01 billion
and total cost of N4.002 billion in the preceding quarter of
2014.
2.4
Deposit Money Banks’ Activities
Available data indicated that the total assets and liabilities of
the commercial banks stood at N28,587.23 billion at the end of
the first quarter of 2015, representing an increase of 4.3 per
cent over the level at the end of the preceding quarter. Funds
were sourced, largely, from increase in capital accounts,
claims on the private sector and the central government. The
funds were used, mainly, for acquisition of unclassified assets,
reduction in unclassfified liabilities and accretion to reserves.
At N17, 279.9 billion, banks’ credit to the domestic economy,
rose by 4.38 per cent, compared with the level at the end of
the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to
the increase in claims on the Federal Government and the
private sector in the review quater.
At 35.1 per cent,
liquidity ratio in Q1
2015 was 8.4
percentage points
above the stipulated
minimum ratio,
while the Loan-todeposit ratio was
below the
prescribed
maximum of 80 per
cent.
Subscription for FGN
Bonds of various
maturities increased
during the first
quarter of 2015.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Central Bank’s credit to the commercial banks rose by 12.1
per cent to N288.2 billion at the end of the review quarter,
reflecting increase in CBN loans and advances to banks over
the level at the end of the preceding quarter. Total specified
liquid assets of the banks stood at N6,314.4 billion,
representing 35.1 per cent of their total current liabilities. At
that level, the liquidity ratio fell by 0.1 percentage point below
the level in the preceding quarter, but was 8.4 percentage
point above the stipulated minimum ratio of 30.0 per cent. The
loans-to-deposit ratio, at 66.2 per cent, was 2.6 percentage
points above the level at the end of the preceding quarter,
but was 13.8 percentage points below the prescribed
maximum ratio of 80.0 per cent.
2.5
Discount Houses’ Activities
Total assets/liabilities of the discount houses stood at N109.4
billion at the end of the first quarter of 2015, indicating a
decline of 18.2 and 21.6 per cent below the levels at the end
of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of
2014, respectively. The decline in assets relative to the level at
the end of the fourth quarter of 2014 was accounted for,
mainly, by the significant fall of 25.6 per cent in claims on the
Federal Government, which more than offset the effect of 4.3
per cent increase in claims on banks. Correspondingly, the
decline in total liabilities was attributed to the 57.4 and 46.9
per cent decline in capital and reserves and borrowings,
respectively which more than offset the effects of the increase
in other liabilities and money-at-call .
Discount houses’ investment in Federal Government securities
declined by 12.5 per cent to N50.4 billion and represented
63.9 per cent of their total deposit liabilities. At this level,
discount houses’ investment was 3.9 percentage points above
the prescribed minimum level of 60.0 per cent for fiscal 2014.
Total borrowings by the discount houses was N27.4 billion,
while their capital and reserves stood at N13.4 billion. This
resulted in a gearing ratio of 2:1, compared with the stipulated
maximum of 50:1 for the fiscal year.
2.6
Capital Market Developments
2.6.1
Secondary Market
Available data indicated that developments in the Nigerian


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Economic Report First Quarter

Stock Exchange (NSE) were bearish during the first quarter of
2015. Total volume and value of traded securities fell by 10.3
and 11.9 per cent to 25.9 billion shares and N279.1 billion,
respectively, in 261,116 deals, in the review period, compared
with 28.9 billion shares and N316.9 billion in 279,274 deals
recorded in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Financial Services
sector (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 20.6
billion shares valued at N144.8 billion traded in 160,155 deals;
thus, contributing 79.5 and 51.8 per cent to total equities
turnover volume and value, respectively, compared with 21.8
billion shares, valued at N173.2 billion in 149,100 deals
recorded in the preceding quarter. The banking sub-sector of
the financial services sector was the most active subsector
during the review quarter.
Figure 4: Volume and Value of Traded Securities

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Value (N billion)
Volume (Billion)
Volume of traded securities (LHS)
Value of securities (RHS)


Table 3: Traded Securities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Volume (Billion)

Value (N Billion)


2.6.2
New Issues Market
There were two (2) new and five (5) supplementary listings in
the review month (see table 4 below).
Table:4 New and Supplementary Listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
First Quarter 2015


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Economic Report First Quarter

S/N Company
Additional Shares (Units)
Reasons
Listing
1 Evans Medical Plc
245.87 Million Ordinary shares
Rights Issue
Supplementary
2 Transcorp Hotels Plc
7.6 Billion Shares
New
New
3 Union Dicon Salt Plc
41 million Shares
Special Placement.
Supplementary
4 Mansard Insurance Plc0
500 Million Shares
Share Option Plan
Supplementary
5 Allan Gray Africa Fund
43,024 Units
Memorandum Listing
New
6 Sterling Bank Plc
7.197 Billion Ordinary Shares
Specail Placement
Supplementary
7 Lafarge Africa Plc
1.402 Billion Ordinary shares
Scheme shares allotment
supplementary


2.6.3
Market Capitalization
Aggregate market capitalization for all listed securities
(Equities and Bonds) stood at N16.3 trillion at the end of the
review quarter, indicating a decline of 3.7 per cent below the
level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, market capitalization
for the listed equities fell by 6.6 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter to close at N10.7 trillion at the end of the
review quarter. Listed equities accounted for 66.0 per cent of
the aggregate market capitalization, compared with 68.1 per
cent at the end of the preceding quarter.
2.6.4 NSE All-Share Index
The All-Share Index, which opened at 34,657.15 at the
beginning of the quarter, closed at 31,744.82, representing a
decline of 8.4 per cent below the level at the end of
preceding quarter. At end-March 2015, with the exception of
the NSE Banking and NSE AseM indices, which rose to 364.16
and 1,214.94 over their respective levels at the end of the
preceding quarter, all the other five sectoral indices fell below
their levels in the preceding quarter. The NSE Insurance, NSE
Consumer Goods, NSE Oil/Gas, NSE Lotus Islamic indices and
NSE Industrial declined by 3.4, 11.0, 0.01, 7.7, and 9.8 per cent,
to close at 144.57, 804.55, 380.06, 2,072.21 and 1,929.46,
respectively, at the end of the review period.
Total market
capitalization and
All-Share Index
declined during Q1
2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 5: Market Capitalization and All-Share Index


Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Index
N billion
Market Capitalization (LHS)
All-Share Index (RHS)

Table 5: Market Capitalization and All Share Index (NSE)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Market Capitalization (N trillion)

All-Share Index (Equities)
33,536.25

36,164.31

36,585.08

41,329.19

38,748.01

42,482.48

41,210.10

34,657.15

31,744.82


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.0
Fiscal Operations
3.1
Federation Account Operations
Available data showed that total federally-collected revenue
during the first quarter of 2015 stood at N1,812.87 billion,
reflecting a decline of 33.3 and 18.0 per cent, compared with
the levels in the provisional 2014 quarterly budget estimate3
and receipts in the preceding quarter, respectively. The
development relative to the budget estimate was attributed
to the decline in oil and non-oil revenue during the review
period (Fig. 6, Table 6).
Figure 6: Components of Gross Federally Collected Revenue

Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Oil Revenue Gross
Non-Oil Revenue

Table 6: Gross Federation Account Revenue (N billion)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Federally-collected revenue (Gross)

Oil Revenue

Non-Oil Revenue


At N1,210.77 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 66.8
per cent of the total, fell by 32.4 and 17.4 per cent below the
provisional 2014 quarterly budget estimate and receipts in
the preceding quarter, respectively. The decline in oil revenue

3 2014 Approved Budget Estimate was used
Gross federally -
collected revenue
declined by 18.0
per
cent
below
the level in the
preceding quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

relative to the budget estimate was attributed, mainly, to the
fall in receipts from PPT and Royalties, owing to the fall in
crude oil prices during the review quarter (Fig. 7, Table 7).

Figure 7: Gross Oil Revenue and Its Components
-


Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
N billion
Others
PPT/Royalties
Crude oil/Gas Sales

Table 7: Components of Gross Oil Revenue (N billion)


Non-oil receipts (gross), at N602.10 billion (33.2 per cent of the
total), was below the provisional 2014 budget estimate and
receipts in the preceding quarter by 35.1and 19.1 per cent,
respectively. The decline in non-oil revenue relative to the
provisional budget estimate was due, largely, to the fall in
receipts from all the components during the review quarter
(Fig. 8, Table8).
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Oil Revenue

Crude oil/Gas Sales

PPT/Royalties

Others


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 8: Gross Non-Oil Revenue and its Components
-

1,000
1,200
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
N billion
Others
Customs & Excise Duties
Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes
Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Table 8 Components of Gross Non-Oil Revenue (N billion)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Non-Oil Revenue

Value-Added Tax (VAT)

Companies Income Tax & Other Taxes

Customs & Excise Duties

Others/1

1/ Include FGN Independent Revenue, Education Tax, NITDF & Customs Federation/Non-Federation
Account Levies (Port, Sugar, ETLS, Steel, CISS & Cement Levies)
Of the gross federally-collected revenue during the review
quarter, the sum of N1,549.18 billion (net deductions and
transfers) was transferred to the Federation Account for
distribution among the three tiers of government and the
13.0% Derivation Fund. The Federal Government received
N601.39 billion, while the state and local governments
received N305.03 billion and N235.17 billion, respectively. The
balance of N126.33 billion was allocated to the 13.0%
Derivation Fund for distribution among the oil-producing
states. Also, the Federal Government received N28.17 billion
from the VAT Pool Account, while the state and local
governments received N93.92 billion and N65.74 billion,
respectively.
Furthermore, the sum of N15.63 billion, being distribution from
Excess Crude Account was shared among the three tiers of
governments as follows: Federal Government (N7.16 billion),
State Governments (N3.63 billion), and local government
The
sum
of
N1,549.18 billion
out of the gross
federally collected
revenue
was
distributed among
the three tiers of
government
and
13.0% Derivation
Fund
for
oil
producing states.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

(N2.80 billion) and 13% Derivation Fund (N2.03 billion).
Thus, the total allocation to the three tiers of government in
the first quarter of 2015 amounted to N1,616.44 billion,
compared with the 2014 provisional quarterly budget estimate
of N2,095.20 billion and N1,748.11 billion in the preceding
quarter.
3.2
The Fiscal Operations of the Three Tiers of
Government

3.2.1
The Federal Government

At N751.36 billion, the estimated Federal Government retained
revenue for the first quarter of 2015 was lower than both the
provisional budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding
quarter by 29.6 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. Of this
amount, the Federal Government’s share from the Federation
Account, “Others”, FGN Independent Revenue, VAT and
Share of Excess Crude Account accounted for 80.0, 12.7, 2.5,
3.8, and 1.0 per cent, respectively (Fig. 9, Table 9).
Figure 9: Federal Government Retained Revenue
Federation Account
(80.0 %)
VAT Pool
Account
(3.8%)
Others(10.2%)
FGN Independent
Revenue (5.0%)
Exces Crude
Account (1.0 %)


Federal government
estimated
retained
revenue was lower
than the receipts in
the 2014 provisional
quarterly
budget
estimate.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 9: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Retained Revenue

Expenditure

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


Total estimated expenditure for the first quarter of 2015 stood
at N560.31 billion, indicating decline of 57.2 and 52.2 per cent,
below the 2014 provisional quarterly budget estimate and the
level in the preceding quarter, respectively. The development
relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was
attributed, mainly, to the fall in both the capital and recurrent
components during the period. A breakdown of the total
expenditure
showed
that
the
recurrent
component
accounted for 90.7 per cent, while capital and statutory
transfers segments accounted for 2.3 and 7.0 per cent,
repectively (Fig. 10). A further breakdown of the recurrent
expenditure
showed
that
the
non-debt
component
accounted for 54.0 per cent, while debt service payments
accounted for the balance of 46.0 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted
in a surplus of N191.05 billion, compared with the 2014
provisional quarterly budget deficit of N241.05.
Figure10: Federal Government Expenditure
Recurrent
Capital
Transfers
Capital
(2.3%)
Transfers
(7.0%)
Recurrent
(90.7%)

Fiscal
operations
of the FG resulted
in an estimated
surplus
of
N191.05 billion in
Q1 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

3.2.2
Statutory Allocations to State Governments

Total
allocation
to
state
governments
(including
the
Federation Account, 13.0% Derivation Fund and VAT) stood at
N576.64 billion during the review quarter. This was 20.7 and 7.0
per cent lower than both the 2014 provisional budget estimate
and the level in the preceding quarter, respectively. Further
breakdown showed that receipts from the Federation
Account was N482.72 billion (83.7 per cent), while VAT
contributed N93.92 billion (16.3 per cent). The share of
Federation Account was 8.5 and 14.9 per cent lower than the
levels in the preceeding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2014, respectively. Receipts from the VAT Pool
Account was 1.4 per cent higher than the level in the
preceding quarter, but fell by 8.5 per cent below the level in
the corresponding period of 2014.
3.2.3
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils

Provisional allocations to local governments
from the
Federation and VAT Pool Accounts during the first quarter of
2015 stood at N326.30 billion. This was 23.7 and 6.9 per cent
below the 2014 provisional budget estimate and the level in
the preceding quarter, respectively. Of the total amount,
allocation from the Federation Account was N260.56 billion
(79.9 per cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for the
balance of N65.74 billion (20.1 per cent).


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.0
Domestic Economic Conditions
The dominant activities in the Agricultural sub-sector in the first
quarter of 2015, were harvesting of tree crops, tending of irrigationfed vegetables and preparation for the next planting season. In the
livestock sub-sector, migration in search of pastures dominated,
while income from the livestock sales remained low due to the effect
of insurgent activities on livestock holdings and market disruption.
Crude oil production was estimated at 1.89 million barrels per day
(mbd) or 170.1 million barrels for the quarter. The end-period inflation
rate for the first quarter of 2015, on year-on-year basis, was 8.5 per
cent, compared with 8.0 and 7.8 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. The inflation rate on a 12-month moving average basis
was 8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent at the end of the
preceding quarter.
4.1
Agricultural Sector
Available data indicated that agricultural activities during the
quarter remained moderate as farmers engaged in off-season
cultivation and preparations for the next planting season.
Major agricultural activities in the Southern states were
harvesting of tree crops and clearing of land for 2015 wet
season farming, while tending of irrigation-fed vegetable and
cereal crops dominated in the Northern states. In the livestock
sector, migration in search of pastures dominated. Income
from livestock sales remained low, due to the effect of
insurgent activities on livestock holdings and market disruption.
The spread of the avian influenza outbreak across the country
led to the loss of birds in 75 local government areas across the
18 states affected by the virus.
A total of N2,761.1 million was guaranteed to 14,473 farmers
under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in
the first quarter of 2015. This amount was 24.5 per cent below
the level in the preceding quarter, but was 5.6 per cent above
the level in the corresponding period of 2014. A sub-sectoral
analysis of the amount guaranteed showed that the share of
food crops was N1,726.4 million (62.5 per cent) to 10,362
beneficiaries and livestock got N525.7 million (19.0 per cent) to
1,519 beneficiaries. The share of mixed crop was N244.1 million
(8.8 per cent) to 1,243 beneficiaries, while Fisheries sub-sector
received N118.4 million (4.3 per cent) for 400 beneficiaries.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

‘Others’ received N116.9 million (4.2 per cent) for 677
beneficiaries. A total of N29.8 million (1.1 per cent) was
guaranteed to 272 beneficiaries in the cash crop sub-sector.
Analysis by state showed that 33 states and the Federal
Capital Territory benefited from the Scheme in the first quarter
of 2015, with the highest and lowest sums of N314.5 million
(11.4 per cent) and N2.3 million (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to
Edo and Taraba States, respectively.
At end-March 2015, the total amount released by the CBN
under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) to
the participating banks for disbursement stood at N274.40
billion for 353 (three hundred and fifty three) projects (Table
10).


Table 10: Disbursement of Credit Under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS)
S/N
Participating Banks
Amt Disbursed (N billion)
Number of Projects/State Governments

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc
45.8

Zenith Bank
48.3

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
35.0

Unity Bank Plc
24.2

Union Bank Nigeria PLC
18.2

Stanbic IBTC Bank
17.3

Sterling Bank Plc
15.6

Access Bank Plc
12.6

Fidelity Bank Plc
10.9

Skye Bank Plc
9.7

GTBank Plc
7.8

FCMB Plc.
7.1

ECOBANK
6.4

Heritage Bank Plc
3.1

Diamond Baqnk Plc
3.7

Citibank Plc
3.0

Keystone Bank
2.1

Mainstreet Bank
2.0

Wema Bank
1.1

Enterprise Bank
0.5

TOTAL
274.4

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

4.2
Industrial Production
Industrial activities showed improvement during the first
quarter of 2015 relative to the level in the preceding quarter.
At 123.6 (2010=100), the estimated index of industrial
production rose by 2.9 and 0.1 per cent above the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. The improved performance was attributed to
increased activities in the manufacturing sub-sectors.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 191.2
(2010=100), showed an increase of 1.2 and 1.5 per cent,
compared with the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding
period
of
2014,
respectively.
Capacity
utilization, at 60.5 per cent, rose by 0.2 percentage point
above the level in the preceding quarter. The development
was attributed to increased investment in the food and
beverages, textile and pharmaceutical sub-sectors (Fig.11).
Figure 11: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Percent

At 101.1 (2010=100), the index of mining production declined
by 0.1 and 4.9 per cent relative to the levels attained in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively. The decline in mining production during the
review quarter, was accounted for by the fall in crude oil and
gas production.
Industrial activities
rose in the review
quarter due to
increase activities
in the
manufacturing subsector.
Actual industrial
capacity utilization
rose by 0.2
percentage point
during the review
quarter.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

At 2,985 MW/h, estimated average electricity generation fell in
the first quarter of 2015 by 5.2 per cent, compared with the
level attained in the preceding quarter. The development was
attributed to the effect of gas pipeline vandalism across the
country.
At 2,595 MW/h, estimated average electricity consumption
declined by 13.8 per cent, compared with the level attained
in the preceding quarter. The reduction in electricity
consumption was attributed to the fall in power supply,
occasioned by a decline in total power generation during the
period (Fig. 12, Table 11).
Figure 12: Index of Industrial Production (1990=100)

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Index
Mining
All Sectors
Manufacturing

Table 11: Index of Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
All Sectors (1990=100)

Manufacturing

Mining
146.19
146.25


Capacity Utilization (%)

Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and
natural gas liquids, averaged 1.89 mbd or 170.1 million barrels
(mb) in the review quarter. This represented a decline of 0.08
mbd (4.1 per cent), compared with the 1.97 mbd or 181.24
Average electricity
generation and
consumption fell
during the review
quarter.
Crude oil and natural
gas production
declined in the first
quarter of 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

million barrels produced in the fourth quarter of 2014. Crude oil
export was estimated at 1.44 mbd or (129.6 million barrels),
representing a decline of 5.3 per cent, compared with 1.52
mbd or 139.84 million barrels (mb) recorded in the fourth
quarter of 2014. The development was attributed to the
upsurge in sabotage activities leading to pipeline vandalism,
which has continued to hinder crude oil production.
Allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45
mbd or 40.5 million barrels during the review quarter.
At an estimated average of US$56.73 per barrel, the price of
Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), fell by
27.0 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding
quarter. The average prices of other competing crudes,
namely the U.K Brent, the Forcados and the West Texas
Intermediate also fell to US$55.58, US$57.07 and US$47.34 per
barrel, compared with US$76.80, US$77.99 and US$73.21 per
barrel, respectively, in the preceding quarter of 2014. At
US$50.3 per barrel, the average price of OPEC’s basket of
eleven crude streams fell by 31.4 per cent, compared with the
average of US$73.36/b and US$105.98/b recorded in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively. The development was largely due to crude
inventory build-up in the US, a strong US dollar and a slowing
oil demand growth, which has continued to put a downward
pressure on crude oil prices (Fig. 13, Table 12).
Crude oil export
fell in Q1 2015.
Average crude
oil prices,
including
Nigeria’s Bony
Light (37o API)
fell in the
international
crude oil
market in Q1
2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure13: Trends in Crude Oil Prices

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
US$ per barrel
Bonny Light
OPEC Basket


Table 12: Average Crude Oil Prices in the International Oil Market
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Bonny Light

OPEC Basket


4.4
Consumer Prices4
Available
data
showed
that
the
all-items
composite
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the first quarter of
2015 was 168.4 (November 2009=100), representing an
increase of 2.4 and 8.6 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2014,
respectively. The development relative to the preceding
quarter was driven largely by increase in the price of nonalcoholic beverages; housing; water; electricity, gas and other

4 New CPI with November 2009 = 100 as base and new weight based on the 2003/2004 Nigeria
Living Standard Survey (NLSS) was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ON 18TH
October 2010.
The general price
level rose in Q1 2015
on account of the
increase in the prices
of food items and
non-alcoholic
beverages.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

fuel; clothing and footwear; transport; education; furnishing,
household equipment and maintenance; and health.
The urban all-items CPI at the end of the first quarter of 2015
was 167.4 (November 2009=100), indicating an increase of 2.4
and 8.5 per cent over the levels in the preceding quarter and
the corresponding period of 2014, respectively. Similarly, the
rural all-items CPI, at 169.5 (November 2009=100), represented
an increase of 2.4 and 8.4 per cent over the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively (Fig. 14, Table 13).
Figure14: Consumer Price Index

142.5

147.5

152.5

157.5

162.5

167.5

172.5

177.5

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Index
Composite
Urban
Rural

Table 13: Consumer Price Index (November 2009=100)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Composite


Urban

Rural
145.3
147.9


The inflation rate for the first quarter of 2015, on a year-on-year
basis, stood at 8.5 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent in the
preceding quarter. This indicated 0.5 percentage point
increase above the level in the preceding quarter. The
inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis was
8.2 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent recorded in the
preceding quarter (Fig. 15, Table 14).
The headline
inflation (y-oy) stood at 8.5
per cent in Q1
2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 15: Inflation Rate

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Percent
12-Month Average
Year-on-Year


Table 14: Headline Inflation Rate (%)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
12-Month Moving Average

Year-on-Year


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

5.0
External Sector Developments
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow through the
CBN in the first quarter of 2015 declined by 29.4 and 26.5 per cent
below the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
quarter of 2014, respectively. Outflow through the Bank also fell by
15.0 and 21.3 per cent below the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively. Total non-oil
export receipts fell by 37.5 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter, but was 44.3 per cent above the level in the the
corresponding quarter of 2014. Relative to the preceding quarter,
the average naira exchange rate at the rDAS vis-à-vis the US dollar,
depreciated by 4.3 per cent to N169.68 per dollar. At the BDC
segment of the market, the average naira exchange rate, at
N209.52 vis-à-vis the dollar, also depreciated by 14.9 per cent,
relative to the level in the preceding quarter. Similarly, at the interbank segment, the average naira exchange rate, relative to the
preceding quarter, depreciated to N191.00 per dollar. The gross
external reserves fell by 14.3 per cent to US$29.35 billion, compared
with its level at the end of the preceding quarter.
5.1
Foreign Exchange Flows
Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflows
through the CBN in the first quarter of 2015 amounted to
US$7.51 billion, representing a decline of 29.4 and 26.5 per
cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2014, respectively. The development
was due to the fall in both its oil and non-oil components.
Foreign exchange outflow amounted to US$12.35 billion,
showing a decline of 15.0 and 21.3 per cent below the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of
2014, respectively. The decline in outflow, relative to the
preceding quarter, was attributed, largely, to the fall in rDAS
utilization and other official payments. The development
resulted in a net outflow of US$4.84 billion, compared with the
net outflow of US$3.89 and US$5.47 billion recorded in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively (Fig.16, Table 15).


Foreign exchange
inflow and
outflow through
the CBN declined
by 29.4 and 15.0
per cent,
resulting in a net
outflow of
US$4.84 billion in
Q1 of 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 16: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN


Table 15: Foreign Exchange Flows Through the CBN (US$ million)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Inflow
10,304.46

9,442.91

11,857.35

9,465.52

10,221.43

12,667.31

13,094.23

10,641.86

7,514.52

Outflow
6,313.04

12,542.53

12,667.33

10,789.61

15,695.66

12,806.25

11,804.98

14,527.35

12,354.60

Netflow
3,991.42

(3,099.62)

(809.98)

(1,324.09)

(5,474.23)

(138.94)

1,289.25

(3,885.49)

(4,840.08)


Provisonal data on aggregate foreign exchange flows
through the economy indicated that total inflow amounted to
US$26.87 billion, representing a decline of 28.0 and 26.6 per
cent below the levels in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2014, respectively. The development
was attributed, largely, to the decline in receipts from crude
oil sales and inflow through autonomous sources. Oil sector
receipts, which accounted for 22.1 per cent of the total, stood
at US$5.94 billion, compared with the US$7.64 billion and
US$9.82 billion recorded in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2014, respectively.
Non-oil public sector inflow, at US$1.57 billion (5.8 per cent of
the total), fell by 47.7 per cent below the level in the
preceding quarter, but was 292.8 per cent above the level in
the corresponding period of 2014. Autonomous inflow, which
accounted for 72.1 per cent of the total, fell by 27.4 per cent,
compared with the level in the preceding quarter.
Autonomous inflows
into the economy fell
by 27.4 per cent in
Q1 2015 .
-10,000
-5,000


Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
US$ million
Inflow
Outflow
Netflow


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

At US$12.59 billion, aggregate foreign exchange outflow from
the economy fell by 15.2 and 21.4 per cent below the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively. The decline relative to the preceding quarter,
was accounted for, mainly, by the fall in rDAS utilization, owing
to the closure of the rDAS window by the CBN on Feberuary
18, 2015. Overall, a net inflow of US$14.28 billion was recorded
in the first quarter of 2015, compared with US$22.45 billion and
US$20.56
billion
in
the
preceding
quarter
and
the
corresponding period of 2014, respectively.
5.2
Non-Oil Export Earnings by Exporters
Total non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters during the
first quarter of 2015 stood at US$1,607.9 million, indicating a
decline of 37.5 per cent below the level in the preceding
quarter, but was an increase of 44.3 per cent above the level
in the corresponding period of 2014. The development,
relative to the preceding quarter, was attributed, mainly, to
the significant fall in receipts from agricultural sector and
manufactured products. A breakdown of the proceeds
showed
that industrial sector, manufactured products,
agricultural products, food products and minerals earned
US$1,199.2 million, US$151.9 million, US$150.7 million, US$72.4
million and US$33.7 million, respectively.
The shares of industrial sector, manufactured products,
agricultural sector, food products and minerals in non-oil
export proceeds were 74.6, 9.4, 9.4 4.5, and 2.1 per cent,
respectively.
5.3
Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Available data indicated that the invisible sector accounted
for the bulk (42.2 per cent) of total foreign exchange
disbursed in the first quarter of 2015, followed by mineral and
oil sector (20.0 per cent). Other beneficiary sectors in a
descending order included: industrial sector (16.5 per cent),
food products (9.7 per cent), manufactured products (9.0 per
cent), transport sector (2.1 per cent) and agricultural products
(0.5 per cent) (Fig.17).
.
The invisible
sector accounted
for the bulk of
the total foreign
exchange
disbursed during
Q1 2015.
Total non-oil
export earnings
by exporters fell
during the first
quarter of 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure17: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange

Percent of Total
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15

5.4
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
Foreign exchange demand by the authorized dealers in the
review quarter was estimated at US$9.36 billion, indicating a
decline of 36.8 and 44.4 per cent below the levels in the
preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively. The development, relative to the preceding
quarter was attributed, largely, to the closure of the rDAS
window of the foreign exchange market. The sum of US$10.54
billion was sold by the CBN during the review quarter,
indicating a decline of 17.3 and 26.7 per cent below the levels
in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of
2014, respectively (Fig. 18, Table 16).
Figure 18: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
US$ billion
Forex Sales at rDAS
Forex Demand at rDAS
Supply of Forex to BDC
Total Forex Supply


Demand and supply
of foreign exchange
by authorized dealers
fell during Q1 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table 16: Demand for and Supply of Foreign Exchange (US$ billion)
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Forex Sales at RDAS

Forex Demand at RDAS

Supply of Forex to BDC

Total Forex Supply(BDC and RDAS)


Under the rDAS, the average exchange rate of the naira vis-àvis the US dollar, at N169.68 per US dollar, depreciated by 4.3
and 7.3 per cent relative to the levels in the preceding quarter
and the corresponding period of 2014, respectively. At the
bureau-de-change segment of the market, the naira traded
at an average of N209.52 per US dollar, indicating a
depreciation of 14.9 and 18.5 per cent relative to the levels in
the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2014,
respectively. Similarly, at the inter-bank segment, the naira
exchanged at an average of N191.00 to the US dollar,
indicating a depreciation of 9.9 and 14.8 per cent relative to
the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding
period of 2014, respectively (Fig. 19, Table 17).
The premium between the rDAS and the bureau-de-change
rates widened to 23.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 from
9.8 and 8.6 per cent in the preceding quarter and the
corresponding period of 2014, respectively. Simialrly, the
premium between the rDAS and inter-bank widened to 12.6
per cent from 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter (Fig. 20,
Table 17).
The average naira
exchange rate visà-vis the US dollar
depreciated in all
the segments of
the foreign
exchange market
in Q1 2015.
The premium
between the rDAS
and the BDC rates,
and between rDAS
and the interbank
widened in the
review period.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Figure 19: Average Exchange Rate Movements

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
N/US $
Average wDAS/rDAS
Average BDC


Table 17: Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Premium
Average Exchange Rate (N/US$)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
rDAS

BDC

Interbank

Premium (%)
rDAS/BDC

RDAS/Interbank


Figure 20: Exchange Rate Premium

Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Per cent
rDAS/BDC
rDAS/Interbank


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

5.5
Gross External Reserves
Gross external reserves at the end of the first quarter of 2015
stood at US$29.36 billion, indicating a decline of 14.3 per cent,
from the level recorded at the end of the preceding quarter.
The development was attributed, mainly, to the dwindling oil
receipts and demand pressure at the foreign exchange
market. A breakdown of the reserves showed that CBN
reserves stood at US$25.00 billion (85.1 per cent), Federation
reserves, US$2.26 billion (7.7 per cent) and the Federal
Government reserves, US$2.10 billion (7.2 per cent) (Fig. 21,
Table 18).
Figure 21: Gross External Reserves


Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
US$ million


Table 18: Gross External Reserves (US$ million)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
External Reserves
47,884.1

44,957.0

44,108.5

42,847.3

37,376.4

37,330.0

38,278.6

34,241.5

29,346.6


Gross external
reserves fell
during the first
quarter 2015.


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

6.0 Global Economic Conditions
6.1 Global Output
The Januray 2015 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World
Economic Outlook (WEO) Update projected global growth at
3.5 per cent in 2015. This represented a downward revision of
0.3 per cent from the projected level in October 2014,
reflecting a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the
euro area and Japan as well as weak activity in some major
oil exporting countries.
Growth in advanced economies was projected to expand by
2.6 per cent in 2015 above the estimated growth rate of 1.8
per cent in 2014. Growth was projected to be driven by
domestic demand supported by lower oil prices and
continued support from an accommodative monetary policy
stance. However, the continuous dollar appreciation was
projected to reduce net exports. In the euro area, growth was
estimated to expand by 1.2 per cent in 2015, while Japan was
estimated to grow by 0.6 per cent in 2015.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth was
projected to remain broadly stable at 4.3 per cent in 2015. The
downward revision was attributed to slow growth in China and
weak outlook in Russia.
6.2 Global Inflation
Global inflation softened recently, reflecting economic slack
and declining crude oil prices that is slowly weakening
commodity
prices.
Inflation
in
advanced
economies
remained low, reflecting the existence of output gaps and
serious concern for deflation. Inflation, measured with the
personal consumption expenditure deflator is protracted at
2.0 per cent in 2015 in the United States. Euro area inflation
was estimated at 0.9 per cent on an annual basis in 2015 as
recovery strengthens and output gaps slowly decline. Inflation
in the euro area was expected to remain substantially below
the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2.0 per cent target until
2019 in view of their current policies.
In Japan, inflation was projected to increase gradually toward
the Bank’s 2.0 per cent target in the medium-term as output


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

gap closes and inflation expectations rise. Inflation in
emerging market and developing economies were projected
to remain largely unchanged in 2015. The recent decline
reflects to a large extent the softening of commodity prices,
particularly food commodities, which has a high weight in the
consumer price index baskets for these countries.
6.3 Global Commodity Demand and Prices
World crude oil demand was estimated at 91.41 mbd in the
first quarter of 2015, representing a decline of 1.5 per cent
compared with the 92.78 mbd recorded in the fourth quarter
of 2014. World crude oil supply was estimated at an average
of 94.09 mbd, representing an increase of 0.1 per cent above
the level recorded in the preceding quarter. Decreased
demand for crude was attributed to weakened industrial
activity and reduced refinery margins in many parts of the
world, while increased production majorly from Saudi Arabia
and Iraq accounted for the increase in global supply.
The average price of OPEC Reference Basket of eleven
selected crude streams stood at US$50.30 per barrel in the first
quarter of 2015, representing a decline of 31.4 and 52.5 per
cent below the US$73.36/b and US$105.98/b recorded in the
fourth and corresponding quarters of 2014, respectively. The
UK Brent at US$55.58/b, Forcados at US$57.07/b and the West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$47.34/b, exhibited a similar
trend as the Bonny Light.
6.4
International Financial Markets
The international stock market remained strengthened by US
accommodative monetary policy, ECB asset repurchase
programme and low global inflation. On the heels of falling oil
prices, the US equity markets was boosted by strong consumer
demand, lower US oil imports and accommodative monetary
policy. In North America, the S&P/TSX Composite, Mexican
Bolsa and S&P 500 indices recorded increase of 1.8, 1.3 and
0.4 per cent, respectively.
In South America, the Argentine Merval and Brazilian Bovespa
indices rose by 43.6 and 2.3 per cent, respectively, while the
Columbian IGBC General index fell by 13.8 per cent. In
Europe, the DAX, CAC 40, MICEX and FTSE 100 indices posted
22.0, 17.8, 16.4 and 3.2 per cent gains, respectively. In Asia,


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange-A, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and
India’s BSE Sensex indices rose by 15.9, 10.1 and 1.7 per cent,
respectively.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continued on its record
stimulus programme, which is adding about 80 trillion yen
($663 billion) to the money supply every year. China’s
economy witnessed a rise in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), as
investors largely avoided the troubled manufacturing sector
and focused on the more resilient services industry.
In Africa, the South African JSE AS, Kenyan Nairobi NSE 20 and
Egyptian EGX CSE 30 indices rose by 4.8, 2.7 and 2.3 per cent,
respectively, while the Nigerian All-Share Index and Ghanaian
GSE All-Share indices fell by 8.4 and 1.8 per cent, respectively.
6.5 Other International Economic Developments
and Meetings
Other major international economic developments and
meetings of importance to the domestic economy during the
review period included: an extraordinary meeting of the
Committee of Governors of the West African Monetary Zone
(WAMZ) held in Abuja, Nigeria, on January 22, 2015. The
Meeting was preceded by the Technical Committee meeting
of the WAMZ on January 21, 2015. The Chairman and
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin I. Emefiele
convened the meeting to consider WAMI's 2015 Budget and
the
Report on the status
of Implementation of the
Restructuring
of
WAMI.
Important
decisions
following
deliberations at the meeting included, among others:

Approval of WAMI's budget for 2015;

Directive for the implementation of provident fund to
support staff of WAMI;

Allocation of Director positions at WAMI to Member
Countries with two years rotation period; and

Approval of the re-appointment of Director General of
WAMI, Dr. Abwaku Englama, for another two-year period
with effect from February 1, 2015.
The 24th African Union Summit was held in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia from January 23 to January 31, 2015, under the
theme,
"Women's
Empowerment
Year
and Africa


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Economic Report First Quarter

Development Towards Agenda 2063”. Following deliberations
at the Summit, the African Development Bank (AfDB)
expressed
its
support
to
the
African
Union
(AU)
in
implementing Africa’s commitments for an accelerated
agricultural growth and transformation. The AfDB promised to
implement along with other partners an innovative financial
support for the implementation of the AU Strategy and
Roadmap towards the realization of the 2014 Malabo
commitments on agriculture and food security.
The 8th Joint Annual Meetings of the African Union Specialized
Technical Committee on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic
Planning and Integration and the ECA Conference of African
Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from March 25 - 31, 2015.
The theme of the Conference was, “Implementing Agenda
2063 - Planning, Mobilizing and Financing for Development”.
The 2015 edition of the Economic Report on Africa,
“Industrializing through Trade”, was launched during the
Conference. The Report builds on the key messages of the
previous editions of ERA focusing on industrialization and
structural transformation, which further explores the question
of how trade can serve as an instrument for accelerating
industrialization and structural transformation in Africa.
Finally, the Caucus of Central Bank Governors meeting was
held on the sideline of the Conference of Ministers’ meeting.
During the meeting, the Governors engaged in a structured
dialogue on the identification of concrete follow-up measures
on the outcomes of the Abuja 2014 meeting. They also
discussed measures that would enhance the role of African
Central Banks in financing industrial development for inclusive
growth and sustainable development.


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Economic Report First Quarter

APPENDIX TABLES


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A1: Money and Credit Aggregates


1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.

2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well
as Demand Deposits of non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Central Bank (Net)

Banks

Claims on Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on Other Private Sector

Central Bank

Banks

Claims on State and Local Government

Central Bank

DMBs

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Foreign Assets (Net)

Central Bank

DMBs and Non Interest Banks

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

Banks' Deposit with CBN

N billion


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter

Table A2: Money and Credit Aggregates (Growth Rates)
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector

Claims on State and Local Government

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Assets (Net)

Other Assets (Net)

Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Domestic Credit (Net)

Claims on Federal Government (Net)

Claims on Private Sector

Claims on Other Private Sector


2.6
Claims on State and Local Governments

Claims on Non-financial Public Enterprises
Foreign Asset (Net)

Other Asset (Net)
-19.92
-7.89

6.29
11.33
-7.92
Total Monetary Assets (M2)

Quasi-Money 1/

Money Supply (M1)

Currency Outside Banks

Demand Deposits 2/

Total Monetary Liabilities (M2)

Memorandum Items:
Reserve Money (RM)

Currency in Circulation (CIC)

DMBs Demand Deposit with CBN

Percentage Change Over Preceding Quarter
Percentage Change Over Preceding December

1/ Quasi money consist of Time, Savings and Foreign Currency Deposit at Deposit Money Banks excluding Taking from Discount Houses.
2/ Demand Deposit consist of State, Local and Parastatals Deposits at CBN, State, Local Government and Private Sector Deposits as well as Demand Deposits of
non-financial Public Enterprises at Deposit Money Banks.


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Economic Report First Quarter

Table A3: Federal Government Fiscal Operations (N billion)
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Retained Revenue

Federation Account

VAT Pool Account

FGN Independent Revenue

Excess Crude

Others/SURE-P

Expenditure

Recurrent

Capital

Transfers

Overall Balance: Surplus(+)/Deficit(-)


C e n t r a l B a n k o f N i g e r i a

Economic Report First Quarter